Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. While many feel that it was a disappointing season for the Falcons, it was not all that bad. Sure, back-to-back losses at home against Buffalo and Miami with a bye week in-between were bad, everything else was fine. The other four losses came against higher seeded playoff teams and two of those were by three and five points. Atlanta avoided the Super Bowl loss hangover to make it back into the playoffs and it was the only team from the NFC playoff team from last year to make it back this season. The Falcons finished with the third best conference record at 9-3, one game worse than the Eagles and Vikings and they outgained opponents by 46.4 ypg. Additionally, the experience from last year is a big edge. They played the fourth toughest schedule in the league and are ranked higher in the power rankings yet are close to a touchdown underdog in most places. The Rams had a great year in the first season under head coach Sean McVay, but it could be considered a mirage. The offense finished No. 10 and the defense finished No. 19 and the main reason their scoring differential was so high was due to 28 takeaways and that cannot be counted on here, especially against an Atlanta team that gave it up just 18 times. They outgained opponents by 34.2 ppg (taking Week 17 out of the equation) against a schedule that was No. 17 in the NFL and their one win against the top 10 is the second fewest among all playoff teams (Tennessee had zero). Lack of playoff experience will be felt which makes the inflated line even more troublesome. 10* (103) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Rams have clinched the NFC West, clinched the No. 3 seed in the NFC and have no chance to move up in the playoff standings. Thus, they have decided to rest numerous players including Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, numerous offensive linemen as well as Aaron Donald on defense. Clearly, this is a game they could care less about and staying healthy is the ultimate goal. On the other side, this is a big game for the 49ers to carry momentum into next season. They got off to a 0-9 start but have since won five of their last six games including four straight with all four of those led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He has been solid with a 69 percent completion percentage while putting up a 98.9 passer rating, not bad for someone with six career starts. On the season, the 49ers are getting outgained by fewer than 17 ypg which is not bad for a team that is five games under .500. San Francisco has covered five of seven road games this season and while none have been as a favorite, this is a different situation with motivational edges totally on their side. 10* (331) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers playoff hopes are slim, but they are doable. First off, they must win their game against the Raiders and there are nine different scenarios that can get them the No. 6 seed in the AFC. Of those, all nine have to have Jacksonville upset Tennessee and that is more than possible considering the Jaguars have elected to not rest their starters despite having the No. 3 seed locked up. Since the games kick off at the same time, the Chargers will be playing throughout to win unless there is an early Tennessee blowout which we do not see happening. Los Angeles caught fire possibly a little too late but considering it started the season 0-4, the fact that it still has a chance in the playoffs shows the fight in this team, namely Philip Rivers who has been playing exceptional with the exception of the game in Kansas City two weeks ago. Running back Melvin Gordon is listed as questionable so hopefully he can make it work. The Raiders have been a huge disappointment this season and they have now lost three straight games to fall to 6-9 and there is little to no fight left in this team. They are just 2-5 on the road and do not be surprised to see them roll over this week. 10* (326) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. The win by the Vikings on Saturday and victories by the Saints and Rams Sunday put a little bit of pressure on the Eagles heading into Monday night. They could have coasted into the position of home field advantage for the playoffs but now they need to win tonight or next week against the Cowboys. That being said, this line has jumped up into double-digits and it is an overadjusted number based on public perception and what is at stake. The loss of quarterback Carson Wentz is huge and while Nick Foles did a good job filling in the Eagles win by five points, they were outgained by 163 total yards. The Raiders have officially been eliminated from playoff contention after losing to Dallas last week and Kansas City winning yesterday and there is nothing left to play for but pride and because this is a nationally televised game, there will be no quit with the Raiders. Defensively is where the game can be decided for the Raiders as the pass rush has improved since Ken Norton Jr. was dismissed as defensive coordinator after Week 11 and replaced by John Pagano because the pass rush has improved immensely. Oakland had 14 sacks through 10 games and has put up 14 sacks over its last 10 games. Additionally, the Raiders had just 68 total pressures from edge defenders under Norton, 25th in the NFL, to 46 pressures over the last four games which is tied for second, under Pagano. 10* (131) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Game of the Year. We had Atlanta in the first matchup two weeks ago and it was a fortunate victory as the Saints had a chance to win but Drew Brees tossed a late pick to secure the victory for the Falcons. The division is still on the line with the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all still alive for the NFC South and any three of those teams can clinch a playoff berth with a victory. The scenario is simple for the Saints as if they win out, they claim the division and they have the easiest road with this home game and them a game against Tampa Bay next week to close out the season. New Orleans is 6-1 at home with the only loss coming against New England in its home opener. Since that loss, the Saints are 10-2 with the two losses coming by a combined nine points and they have something to prove this week as they have now lost three straight games to the Falcons. Atlanta played Monday which is a disadvantage in this rematch and it did not look very good against Tampa Bay as it made the plays to get it done but was unable to pull away against what is considered an inferior team. The passing defense struggled and while the Saints are a more balanced team, Brees can still pick them apart if the running game gets going early. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. This is a spot the Saints have thrived in as they are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (116) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Not sure of the rationale behind this number but certainly a lot has to do with the Rams rout last week at Seattle. Los Angeles now has a two-game lead over the Seahawks in the NFC West and are likely a lock for the playoffs and winning the division as it has a home game against San Francisco in its season finale, so a win here really is not a must. There is no doubt the Rams are for real and while they have been favored twice on the road in the second half of the season, those games were against the Cardinals and Giants, two teams not sniffing the playoffs. Despite a pair of losses on the road, Tennessee remains in the playoff hunt as it is 8-6 and currently locks down the No. 1 Wild Card spot in the AFC. With a home game against Jacksonville next week, the Titans can win the division if they win out and the Jaguars lose this week against the 49ers on the road which is more than possible. The best part is that the Titans game is early so winning will be at the forefront instead of scoreboard watching. The Rams have been great on the road at 6-1 but Tennessee brings in a 5-1 home record and with everything on the line, this is going to be a tough environment for the Rams. It can be argued that they were in a tough environment last week, but that game was over early, so it was pretty docile. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game including 0-2 straight up and ATS this season while the Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss. 10* (110) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. As expected, Carolina was a winner yesterday which puts Atlanta in a near must win situation tonight. Waiting it out again proves the right call as the linemakers are adjusting this line based on the importance for Atlanta which is a big example of why these games late in the season should not be bet early in the week. The Falcons are a game and a half behind the Panthers for the first Wild Card spot and just a half-game ahead of Detroit, Seattle and Dallas so this is in fact a big game. However, they are paying the price as this line has risen as much as two and a half points in some places as must win and actually winning are two different things entirely. It has been a disappointing season for the Buccaneers as they have lost three straight games to fall to 4-9 on the year and it has been a tough stretch with six of their last nine games taking place on the road. They are coming off a loss to Detroit at home in their last game as the Lions kicked the game-winning field goal with 20 seconds remaining to fall to 3-3 at home. Five of the nine losses have come by five points or less or in overtime, so things could be better record wise for Tampa Bay and while it is out of the playoff picture, playing spoiler is the goal and we will see an all-out effort because they are on national television. Going back, the Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (332) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. This game had a lot more appeal before the season started but there is still a lot on the line for both teams. Dallas and Oakland are both hanging by a thread as far as the playoffs go and the loser of this game will be eliminated from postseason consideration. The Raiders are a game under .500 following a loss in Kansas City last week but they are still just a game out of the AFC West lead and win here guarantees them to still be a game out with the Chiefs and Chargers squaring off Saturday. A loss will put them two games back and even if they win out, they will lose out because of tiebreakers. This is another game where we are grabbing a home underdog that has every chance of pulling out a victory which is key when backing home underdogs. The Cowboys are in a similar situation as they need to win to stay alive, albeit for a Wild Card spot. They are a game behind Atlanta for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC but do nor own the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head loss against the Falcons. Dallas has rebounded from three straight losses where the offense scored a total of 22 points as it has won its last two games but those were against the Redskins and Giants which are going in downhill quickly. The absence of Ezekiel Elliott was bigger than expected as it seems to have hurt Dak Prescott more than anything although he has looked better during the wins. The fact that the Cowboys were -4 in New York and are -3 here shows how the markets are affecting this line because the public is all in on the Cowboys. 10* (330) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Patriots lost in Miami on Monday night but in the big picture, it meant nothing as home field advantage in the AFC comes down to this game. Fearing the public was going to hammer New England after that loss, the linesmakers were forced to make the Patriots the favorites and we will take advantage of this line. If this game was in New England, the line is saying the Patriots would be a double-digit favorite and that is not reality. The record of New England coming off a loss under Tom Brady is impeccable, but this team is as vulnerable as we have seen in a while. The offense is strong as usual, but the defense remains an issue despite what some are saying about how it has improved over the course of the season. They will be going against a Steelers offense that is playing as good as ever with Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown. They are ranked No. 4 in total offense while New England remains No. 29 in total defense so this is a clear edge for Pittsburgh. On the other side, the Patriots possess the No. 2 ranked offense in the NFL and they will be facing the No. 6 ranked defense in the league. Ryan Shazier is a big loss no doubt but the fact the Steelers are ranked No. 4 in passing defense will be a big difference here. Pittsburgh is 5-1 at home with the one loss coming against Jacksonville which is a surprise, but the Steelers lost that game because of turnovers as they won the yardage battle by 58 yards. While New England has owned the Steelers of late, things are different this year and Pittsburgh will be jacked for payback after losing 36-17 in the AFC Championship last season. 10* (326) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Game of the Week. It is going to be a playoff atmosphere in Seattle this week and it needs to be as this is a playoff game for both sides. It is more important for the home team in this case as a loss by Seattle will in all likelihood kill any chance of winning the NFC West as it would fall two games behind the Rams with two games to play. It would also drop its record to 8-6 and severely hurt the Wild Card chances. A win would put the Seahawks into a tie with Los Angeles and they would own the divisional tiebreaker because of the season sweep so this is a huge swing game. They are coming off a loss at Jacksonville last week which snapped a two-game winning streak and dropped them to 4-3 on the road. Seattle is 4-2 at home which is not great for this team, but those losses were both by a field goal despite the Seahawks winning the yardage battle in both games. The Rams are coming off a loss last week against the Eagles even with Carson Wentz leaving the game with a torn ACL as they were outgained by 148 total yards. It was the third time in four games Los Angeles has been outgained and while it has played the Seahawks tough over the last few years, Seattle is favored by single digits at home for the first time since 2011 so we can see where the value lies. The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss while the Seahawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. 10* (324) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. There are many surprising teams in the NFL this season, but the Jaguars take the cake as the most surprising. They are coming off a statement victory last week over Seattle to take over sole possession in the AFC South with a 9-4 record. They lost early in the season at home against Tennessee so the season finale game at the Titans is going to likely decide the division and this game spells letdown. This is an overrated team where the schedule has fallen their way as a lot of the teams they have faced have not been at full strength or have been in a horrible scheduling spot. That was certainly the case last week with Seattle which was coming off a huge win over Philadelphia the previous week. The Jaguars have a pair of losses against the Jets and Cardinals and supposed elite teams do not let that happen. Houston lost its third straight game last week despite winning the yardage battle in two of those and losing Tom Savage last week is probably not a bad thing. Houston is getting outgained by just 0.3 ypg on the season so the record is deceiving. Rarely will you see the Jaguars favored by double-digits against a quality team and while it has been a lost season for the Texans, they are still considered a quality team. They have only lost two games by more points than what they are getting this week and one of those was against Jacksonville at home so while road revenge is usually not an angle play, it will have the Texans giving a full effort. 10* (315) Houston Texans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Play. Kansas City is coming off a win over Oakland last week but that is no reason to think its problems are over. The Chiefs had lost six of their previous seven games after a 5-0 start and there is a reason they are listed as home underdogs this week. They were able to get the offense going last week against Oakland, but the Raiders defense is among the bottom third of the league while the Chargers possess a top ten stop unit. Kansas City is getting outgained on the season because the offense has regressed of late while the defense has been poor all season as the Chiefs are ranked No. 28 in total defense. While they had a good offensive game last week, the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Los Angeles had had the opposite type of season as it started 0-4 and was left for dead but has since won seven of its last nine games to move into a tie with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. A loss here likely eliminates the Chargers from playoff contention because they will have lost twice to the Chiefs, so a tie gives the division to Kansas City and cashing in the Wild Card would be a stretch. In that first meeting, Los Angeles won the yardage battle, but Philip Rivers tossed three interceptions which is nearly half of his seven total interceptions on the season. He has been on fire of late and that success should continue here. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (305) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. Denver snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over the Jets as New York was a mess with and without Josh McCown as it managed a mere 100 yards of total offense. The Broncos defense can take some of that credit, but the Jets offense is a bad unit to begin with, so it went both ways. Denver vaulted up to No. 1 in total defense with that effort but now they have to travel on a short week which puts them in a difficult spot and while they are the top unit, they allow 24.2 ppg which is No. 24 in the NFL. The defense is the reason they are favored here but and while the Colts offense has been inconsistent this season, they are a better unit at home. They have faced four straight teams with potent defenses and while this one will be the fifth straight, the advantage will be the short week and travel for Denver as mentioned as well as the Broncos defense being banged up. Denver goes from the role of home underdog to road favorite and that is a bad move in this case with the Jets and Colts not being different enough from each other. Indianapolis is 2-4 at home with three of those losses coming by four points or less, two of those coming against upcoming playoff teams. Going back to last season, the Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games while the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (302) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Monday Primetime play. This is a sneaky tough spot for the Patriots which are coming off a divisional road win last week in Buffalo which basically locked up the division and they have a huge game at Pittsburgh next week that will go a long way in deciding home field advantage in the AFC. That will close a stretch of five of six games being played on the road so this has been a challenging part of the schedule. New England does not seem too phased by it considering it has won eight straight games and covered the last six which is a big reason they are overpriced here. Losing outright will likely be a small option but a letdown and lookahead effort leading to a non-cover is a strong option. The Dolphins are coming off one of their best games of the season as they defeated the Broncos 35-9 and while the playoffs are a minor miracle away from happening, they will be ready to play in the national spotlight against a hated rival. Miami will likely test the New England rush defense that has allowed 1,449 yards on the ground (26th in the NFL) and an NFL worst 5.1 ypc and it was Kenyan Drake who had a coming out party in his first game where he was the featured back. Defensively, the Dolphins will not have to worry about tight end Rob Gronkowski who is suspended after tearing Miami apart two weeks ago with a pair of touchdowns. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record while the Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (134) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Rams moved to within a game of the Eagles and Vikings in the NFC with a win on the road in Arizona coupled with the Philadelphia loss in Seattle. It was the second straight win for Los Angeles, but it did get outgained last week against the Cardinals as it benefitted from three turnovers including an interception returned for a touchdown. The Rams are ranked No. 5 in the NFL in total offense after finishing dead last in the league last season, so the turnaround has been impressive. They will be facing a stout defense this week and they have struggled when going up against tough stop units. This will be the third top three defense they it has faced this season and Los Angeles managed only 254 yards against the Vikings and just 249 yards against the Jaguars. The Eagles and allowing 293.2 ypg which is currently third in the league and the offense is just as good as they are ranked No. in total offense. Despite losing last week, they outgained the Seahawks by 115 total yards which was the ninth straight game they have outgained their opponent. Last week, they lost the turnover battle 2-0 and were shutout in the redzone so the 348-yard game from Carson Wentz went for naught. A win here for the Eagles would give them some redemption and help them keep pace with Minnesota for the top seed in the NFC while a loss would drop them down to the No .3 seed based on head-to-head tiebreakers. This is the first meeting between the top two quarterbacks taken in the draft last year and while Jared Goff is having a great season as well, Wentz will be the one to get it done. 10* (127) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Week. While the Falcons and Saints both control their own destiny in the NFC South, that is not the case for Carolina. The Panthers have two games left within the division but neither of those are against New Orleans as they lost both meetings which means they will have to finish a game ahead of the Saints to claim the division. If they do in fact win out and the Falcons can defeat the Saints in two weeks, Carolina would be division champions, but it needs to take care of business here first. This is the first of three straight home games for Carolina where it is 3-2, losing to the Saints and Eagles. This is the time of year that the Panthers pick up their game and after having a four-game winning streak snapped last week, the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. The Vikings continue to impress and because of the Eagles loss at Seattle last week, they are tied with Philadelphia for the top spot in the NFC. Minnesota has won eight straight games while covering the last seven of those and that is the top reason it comes in as a road favorite here. The Vikings are tied with the Rams for the best road record in the NFC at 5-1 but this spot is not ideal as it is their third straight road game and while they will not play any less hard, the fatigue factor is most important especially this late in the season. Minnesota has dropped five straight games in this situation of a third straight roadie and we can expect the winning streak to come to an end here. 10* (116) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We won with the Packers last week as they defeated Tampa Bay in overtime which came after a close three-point loss at Pittsburgh the previous week. The problem is while the scores look impressive, Green Bay was outgained by 155 yards against the Steelers and by 119 yards against the Buccaneers, so the results have been skewed. Quarterback Brett Hundley looked good against Pittsburgh, but he had a bad game against Tampa Bay despite the Buccaneers possessing a poor defense and that was his fourth quarterback rating of less than 50. The Packers have relied on the running game as they have outrushed five of their last six opponents, but Cleveland has a very underrated defense as it is ranked No. 9 overall including No. 6 against the run while its 3.3 ypc average allowed is the best in the NFL. The Browns problems have been on the offensive end as they are No. 24 overall but have been undone by mistakes as their 30 giveaways are the most in the league which has led to a league-low 14.7 ppg. The Packers defense is nothing special as they are ranked No. 23 in the league and over their last eight games, they have allowed an average of 25 ppg. Wide receiver Josh Gordon played his first game last week since 2014 and while there was rust, he was targeted 11 times and averaged 21.3 ypr on four catches and he could be in for a big game this week against a horrible Green Bay secondary. The Packers failed in their only other game as a road favorite this season and will do so again here. 10* (118) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. The Falcons are still on the outside looking in following a loss to the Vikings at home last Sunday and that loss could make them pay. The good news is that the final four games of the season are all divisional games including two against the Saints and seeing they trail New Orleans by two games, they control their own playoff destiny. This is the third of three straight home games so playing on a short week with no travel is big. While there is just a difference of two games between Atlanta and New Orleans, the Falcons should not be home underdogs in this spot as the Saints are a public favorite now. New Orleans had its eight-game winning streak snapped in Los Angels two weeks ago but bounced back last Sunday with a big home win over Carolina as they outgained the Panthers by 121 total yards. It was even worse than that as Carolina put on some garbage yards late in the fourth quarter. Injuries are starting to pile up for New Orleans which hurts when playing on a short week late in the season and it could be down as many as five starters this week. For the Falcons, cornerback Desmond Trufant has been cleared from his concussion symptoms and should play against the Saints which would be significant even though New Orleans is much more balanced this season. The Falcons are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (102) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Primetime play. The Steelers roll into Cincinnati riding a six-game winning streak and they hold a 2.5-game lead over Baltimore and a four-game lead over the Bengals in the AFC North. Pittsburgh is hanging with New England for the top spot in the AFC as it trails the Patriots by a half-game, so this is clearly a big game. The problem has been playing on the road and while the Steelers are 5-1, four of those wins have come by six points or less including two by a field goal. Wide receiver Antonio Brown leads the NFL in catches (80), yards (1,195) and yards per game (108.6) but he is battling a toe injury and has been downgraded to questionable for tonight. The Bengals are keeping their slim playoff hopes alive as they have won two straight games to move to 5-6 and are currently a game and a half behind the Ravens for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. While the offense has had its struggles, after starting the season with four picks in the opener against Baltimore, quarterback Andy Dalton has eighteen and just four interceptions since and no picks in his previous five games. Pittsburgh is going to miss cornerback Joe Haden who is out with a leg injury. The Bengals defense is an underrated unit that is ranked No. 14 overall, No. 10 in points allowed and No. 4 in passing defense. Aside from just beating the Steelers this week and losing no more than one game the rest of the season to get into the playoffs, it is the venue that the Bengals need to conquer. 10* (380) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Game of the Week. Philadelphia comes in at the top of some power rankings and behind the Patriots in others following nine straight wins and eight straight covers. What is not being taken into consideration is that the Eagles have defeated only one team with a winning record which came at Carolina in Week Six. Since then, they have been on the road only once and have had four home games as well as a bye so not only has the scheduled teams helped them, but logistics have as well. Seattle is 6-2 over its last eight games to keep pace in the NFL West as it trails the Rams by a game. The Seahawks are tied with Atlanta for the second Wild Card spot, but they do not hold the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head loss two weeks ago so each game is huge at this point. Their last three losses have come by a total of 12 points including a pair of losses by a field goal at home, so they will be out to snap a two-game home slide. You have to go all the way back to November 2008 to find the last time Seattle has lost three straight home games. The Eagles were favored by the same amount at Dallas in their last road game and we cannot Seattle which is No. 9 in the power rankings and Dallas which is No. 17. This is the time of year Seattle steps its game up as the Seahawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games in December. 10* (378) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We are coming off a win with the Rams last week as they snapped the Saints eight-game winning streak and while there should not be a letdown this week based on everything to play for, we are going against this line which is overinflated. Los Angeles has been outgained by five of 11 opponents this season including four of their five road games and the only time they won the yardage battle on the highway was against the 2-9 Giants. The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Arizona is still alive for a playoff berth as it is 5-6 including a 3-2 record at home after a win over Jacksonville last week and this will be the third straight home game where the Cardinals are getting at least six points. Overall, it has been a disappointing season for Arizona and the loss of quarterback Carson Palmer did not help matters but the Cardinals have held their own as they have outgained seven of 11 opponents and overall, they are getting outgained by just 3.2 ypg. Then there is the matter of revenge as Arizona will be out to avenge the 33-0 loss in London to the Rams which was the game Palmer was lost for the season. On top of that, head coach Bruce Arians had never been shut out prior to that game. 10* (374) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Green Bay put up a great effort in Pittsburgh last week, losing to the Steelers by just a field goal as time expired to fall to 5-6 on the season. The Packers are far from done in the playoff picture despite losing five of their last six games as they are two games behind Seattle for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. Quarterback Brett Hundley is coming off his best game as a starter and he has been solid of late with ratings of 110.8 and 134.3 in two of his last three games. The Green Bay problem has been the defense more than anything as it is ranked No. 23 overall including No. 25 against the pass but that should not be a cause for concern here. Tampa Bay will be getting Jameis Winston back this week, but it is too little, too late for the Buccaneers which come in 4-7 following a loss in Atlanta last week. He has been very inconsistent this season which can be said for the entire offense that is averaging just 20.3 ppg which is No. 23 in the NFL. This was supposed to be a vastly improved defense, but it has gone the wrong way as Tampa Bay is ranked dead last in total defense and passing defense, so this is great news for the Packers and Hundley. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record while the Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (366) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Primetime play. This is an elimination game as the loser is all but done for a playoff run while the winner stays in the hunt as a 6-6 record would put them a game and a half behind the second Wil Card spot in the NFC. The Cowboys are 0-3 since Ezekiel Elliott started serving his suspension but his absence has not been the reason they have been struggling. Dak Prescott has been playing poorly while the defense has not been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Both these factors should reverse themselves tonight. The Cowboys have only one sack over the last three games after registering 15 sacks over the previous four games. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has been sacked 31 times this season for minus-269 yards and his offensive line is in shambles as center Chase Roullier is out while four other offensive linemen are listed as questionable. In the past three games, Prescott has been intercepted five times, has been sacked 14 times and presided over the only offense in the history of the Cowboys to go three straight games without scoring at least 10 points. Que the Redskins defense. Washington is ranked No. 25 in scoring defense and No. 20 in total defense and it has allowed 33 or more points in four of its last six games. The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (302) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Monday Night Primetime play. The Ravens enter this game with the No. 7 ranked overall defense and that will be the difference here. It has been an oddly inconsistent season for Baltimore as the defense has tossed three shutouts, but the offense has been a letdown although it is starting to get better because they are getting healthier, namely quarterback Joe Flacco. He has prospered in Monday night games throughout his career and Baltimore has covered five of its last six games in the Monday spotlight. Houston is coming off a home win over Arizona which snapped a three-game losing streak and kept the Texans within reach in the AFC South where they now trail Tennessee by 2.5 games. This will be the first start for Tom Savage on a Monday night and that is a real problem facing the Baltimore defense. His own defense has taken a step back this season as a few key players have been out, most notably J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing while Jadeveon Clowney is banged up as well. Houston is just 1-3 on the road with the lone victory coming against Cincinnati in a game it got outgained in at the Deshawn Watson coming out party. The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win and we are expecting Savage to struggle in a tough environment. 10* (276) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Rams are coming off a loss in Minnesota last week which snapped their four-game winning streak, but they are back home and looking for the offense to back to its high-level play. They did not lose any ground to the Seahawks however after Seattle lost to Atlanta on Monday night as Los Angeles still has a one-game lead in the NFC West. The Rams went from averaging 14 ppg in 2016 to averaging 30.3 ppg in 2017, second highest in the NFL. They could eventually join the 1965 San Francisco 49ers as the only teams to go from last to first in points from one season to the next. New Orleans has won eight straight game following its overtime win over the Redskins last week which snapped a seven-game cover streak as well. The Saints resurgent defense has made a huge difference, but they will be shorthanded today. Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley have both been ruled out after not practicing all week and they also must make do without starting defensive end Alex Okafor. Last week, after Lattimore was injured in the first quarter, the Saints went on to give up more than 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams will be out for some payback as well as they went to New Orleans last season and got destroyed 49-21 10* (268) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS four our NFL Game of the Week. Carolina is coming off its bye week and is playing like the team from two years ago when it went to the Super Bowl. The Panthers are now 7-3 on the season and trail the Saints by one game in the NFC South with a game in New Orleans next week so they need to keep pace as a lookahead to that game would be devastating. The Carolina defense has been the story this season as it is ranked No. 2 overall while allowing the fifth fewest points in the league at just 18 ppg. The Jets are 4-6 which is a surprise considering their Vegas over/under win total was right around three at most places. They have had some tough losses along the way as five have come by a touchdown or less including a five-point loss at Tampa Bay two weeks ago. They are getting outgained by 40 ypg which seems like a small margin, but they have been outgained by at least 100 ypg in four games so it is skewed. Carolina falls into a huge winning situation today and going back, it has covered six of its last seven road games while the Jets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in November. 10* (261) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thanksgiving Day Enforcer. The Chargers have won four of their last six games after a 0-4 start to keep within reach of the Chiefs in the AFC West. They are coming off a rout last week against the Bills as their quarterback change backfired and now they head to Dallas as a road favorite for the first time this season. Los Angeles outgained Buffalo by just 36 yards as turnovers were the difference and it was outgained in its three previous games while getting outgained on the season overall. This is a good team that has suffered some close losses, but this line shift does not make a ton of sense considering that the Chargers are 5-16 in their last 21 road games the last three years. A big part of the line move is due to the Cowboys playing poor the last two games without Ezekiel Elliott as they were dominated by the Falcons and Eagles but those are two of the top teams in the NFC. Dallas is still 5-5 and just one game out of the second Wild Card spot so the season if far from lost. The absence of Elliott is huge, but Alfred Morris has been just fine as he has rushed for 144 yards on 28 carries (5.1 ypc) in the two games and his carries have been limited because Dallas was playing from behind. The Chargers have the worst rushing defense in the NFL as they are allowing 138.9 ypg and their 4.9 ypc allowed is second worst. This is going to take some pressure off Dak Prescott which he needs at this point. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record while the Chargers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (110) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thanksgiving Day Crusher. This is the second straight season Minnesota and Detroit has met on Thanksgiving Day with the Lions winning last season as slight favorites. Now they are home underdogs as they look to narrow the gap in the NFC North as they trail the Vikings by two games and can get the season sweep and move to within a game with five games remaining. Detroit has won three straight games to move to 6-4 with a schedule that has been difficult in that it has not had a chance to play back-to-back home games all season and will not do so the rest of the season, the only team in the NFL to not have consecutive home games. The Lions have had only one bad game this season which was against New Orleans as the other three losses came by a combined 12 points. Minnesota comes in as a favorite here because it has won six straight games while covering the last five. Case Keenum has done a spectacular job at quarterback in taking over for Sam Bradford but the Lions have had the edge in the passing game in each of their last five games. The Vikings have a top five defense, but repeating the effort they had last week against the Rams will be a challenge. Detroit used to be a pushover on Thanksgiving Day but it has won four straight after nine straight losses dating back to 2004. While the Vikings have covered five straight, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. 10* (108) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Eagles are the hottest team in the NFL as they have won seven straight games, so their bye week came at a poor time. Philadelphia also has a six-game ATS winning streak which is inflating the number as the Eagles are road favorites for just the second time this season. Not only are they coming off their bye but prior to that, they had three straight home games, so they have not travelled since a Monday night game in Carolina on October 12. Philadelphia was a field goal underdog then and are now making a seven-point swing since that last road game. Philadelphia is the public darling right now as despite laying road chalk, it is the second biggest consensus on the NFL card. Going back, the Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Cowboys did not look good in their first game without Ezekiel Elliott at they lost 27-7 but it was a bad spot beyond that as they were playing a very desperate Atlanta team that desperately needed a victory. That was just the third game all season that Dallas has been outgained and while the offense is down without Elliott, the defense will be the story here as it needs to get pressure to Carson Wentz who is off to a solid start and he will pick the Cowboys apart without any pressure. If the Cowboys win Sunday, it's a bonus for a team that could use one, but if the Eagles lose, it could set them up for a second half collapse thanks to a rugged closing schedule. Philadelphia has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL but that changes starting this week. 10* (474) Dallas Cowboys

The Patriots have gotten their swagger back as they have won five straight games and have covered the last three. They are coming off a blowout win in Denver and actually remained in Colorado to practice getting used to the thin air of Mexico City. How much that really helps is yet to be determined but it should not a significant advantage. Despite the five-game winning streak, the Patriots were actually outgained by the Buccaneers and Jets and won the yardage battle in their last three games by just 60, 65 and 57 total yards so they have hardly been dominant. The offensive line will be shorthanded as right tackle Marcus Cannon is out with an injury and center David Andrews came down with and illness and will also be out. The Patriots starting offensive line is not great as it is, and with two starters out, it will be even less worse off. Add to that the fact that the Patriots statistically have the worst defense in the NFL, so the Raiders offense should have a big game too. Oakland is coming off its bye week following a win at Miami two weeks ago and if it wants to stay in the playoff hunt, this is must win game. Currently, the Raiders are two games behind Kansas City in the AFC West while sitting just a game out of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Defensively, they match up well with New England as they will be able to take away the short, quick passing game of Ton Brady and the Patriots offense. The Raiders have thrived in this spot as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. 10* (472) Oakland Raiders

Cleveland let us down last week as it failed to cover against the Lions and lost by 14 points despite outgaining Detroit by 68 total yards. The Browns now head home where they last played on October 22 and are 0-4 on the season but they have been close as three of those four losses have come by three points including games against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Cleveland had to wait until Week 17 to pick up its first win last season and while things are on the down side again, this is a much better team than the 0-9 record indicates. On the season, Cleveland is getting outgained by just 3.3 ypg which is a truer signal of how it is playing and catching more than a touchdown at home is exceptional value. The Jaguars are the biggest surprise in the AFC as they are now 6-3 following an overtime win over San Diego last week which was their third straight victory. They possess one of the top defenses in the NFL which is a big reason they are favored this much but this is a number that Jacksonville is not used to. The Jaguars have not been favored by a touchdown or more on the road since 2008 and while the defense can be trusted, Blake Bortles cannot. He has an 81.8 quarterback rating which is eighth lowest of all qualified quarterbacks. Cleveland is in the same boat with a below average quarterback but an above average defense that is ranked No. 10 overall and No. 4 against the run. the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. 10* (464) Cleveland Browns

New Orleans has now won and covered seven straight games and is again being bet hard by the public this week to continue that run. The Saints ran all over Buffalo last week and there is not much bad to say about this team right now as the offense is clicking while the defense is playing at its highest level in years. What this does do it add value to the other side which is the case here when going up against a long winning streak. Wins over Carolina and Detroit were nice but the other five wins were against teams that likely will not be in the playoffs with the exception of Green Bay if Aaron Rodgers comes back. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford, who passed for 281 yards in the Lions 52-38 loss in New Orleans, is the only quarterback since Week Two to pass for more than 156 yards against the Saints. That shows the type of signal callers the Saints have faced over this stretch. Kirk Cousins will get a chance to sling it around again and he looks to rebound from a loss against Minnesota last week. The key here is running the ball effectively. With starting running back Rob Kelley on injured reserve, Samaje Perine will be in the spotlight. While the Saints defense is vastly improved, it is just No. 16 against the run, suggesting that there is an opportunity for the Redskins to show more balance on offense. This should help in the redzone where Washington was just 2-4 last week against the Vikings. The Redskins have been a solid road team with wins over Seattle and Los Angeles and going back, they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. 10* (465) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the PITTBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime play. If the season ended today, Tennessee would be in the playoffs by way of winning the AFC South, the worst division in football. The division is the only one in the NFL that does not have a team placed in the power rankings top 10 with the titans coming in at No. 20. Tennessee is 6-3 but it has played the easiest schedule in the league and despite that, it has been outscored on the season and it is outgaining opponent by just less than a yard per game. The running game has been outstanding, but the Titans now face the best defense they have seen this season. This is a team where the future is bright, but it is not there yet and playing on the national stage against a team that has been doing it for years will be a bit too much. The Steelers have quietly gone 7-2 thanks to four straight wins, three of which have come on the road. They have played two-third of their games on the highway, going 2-1 at home including an impressive win over Minnesota and the one loss came against Jacksonville despite outgaining the Jaguars as turnovers did them in. Pittsburgh is ranked No. 2 in the NFL in total defense and it has allowed more than 18 points in regulation only once which was that Jacksonville game and even then, 14 of the 30 points were scored by the Jaguars defense. The offense has been inconsistent in getting into the endzone, but the Steelers are ranked No. 10 in total offense and they will face a vulnerable Titans defense. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while the Titans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (312) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. This is a big game for both teams for playoff purposes as Miami is sitting at .500 and is a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot in the AFC while Carolina is 6-3 and is a game ahead of four teams for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Dolphins are coming off a tough loss against Oakland which followed an ugly loss against Baltimore in London and then a bye week, so it has been a while since Miami has tasted victory. It is well documented that the Dolphins offense is having a tough year, but their defense has kept them in the playoff hunt as they are ranked No. 10 in total defense. The Panthers possess the top ranked defense in the NFL so the stop units should dictate the game on both sides. The Carolina offense is nothing special as it is ranked No. 24 in the league and it is one of 12 teams averaging fewer than 20 ppg. Cam Newton's passer rating is a fair bit worse than Jay Cutler's (78.4 to 87.4) and the Panthers minus-8 on turnovers is fourth-worst in the NFL. For Miami, last season proved that even a disastrous start can be overcome and, at least for the offense, Dolphins coaches are optimistic that the close loss to Oakland was the turning point. While Carolina is 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog, it is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite including four straight losses. Going back further sees the Panthers just 5-14 in their last 19 games when laying points. The Panthers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Dolphins are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (275) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Chargers are coming off their bye week so traveling to the east coast is not a disadvantage this time around. They have won three of their last four games and are sitting just 2.5 games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, so they are still in the hunt after a 0-4 start. Three of their last four losses have come against the Chiefs, Eagles and Patriots and that is some pretty strong competition Additionally, four of their five losses have come by just one possession and they are catching a very favorable number this week. In comparison, in their last game at New England, they were getting 6.5 points against the Patriots and are getting just a field goal less against Jacksonville, which makes no sense from a comparable spread standpoint. Jacksonville has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 5-3 record and it has been especially good the last two weeks by outgaining the Colts and Bengals by 286 and 260 yards respectively, but the Colts and Bengals are not good. The defense is one of the best in the league and it is legit, so the Chargers will have a challenge on offense but at the same time, the Jaguars have been tested only once by a strong offense and they allowed 27 points to the Rams. The Chargers have the offense that can cause problems with their balance. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record while the Jaguars are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 10* (257) Los Angeles Chargers

Washington won for us last week despite getting outplayed on the field as it defeated Seattle by a field goal despite getting outgained by 193 total yards. The Redskins head back home feeling good about themselves with a 4-4 record and right in the Wild Card mix. Three of their four losses have come against NFC East foes including two losses at home, but they are 2-0 against non-divisional opponents including their most impressive win of the season against Oakland. They are again catching points at home and it is interesting to note that they faced the Vikings here last season with a 4-4 record while Minnesota was 5-3 and they were favored. Three of the next four games for the Redskins are on the road so taking care of business at home is imperative. The Vikings are coming off their bye week after having won four straight games which is very similar to last season when they went into their bye week on a five-game winning streak and got thumped by Philadelphia. The recent winning streak has come against some weak opposition as they played the Bears in the first start for Mitch Trubisky, the Packers which were without Aaron Rodgers, the slumping Ravens and the winless Browns in London. Minnesota is 2-1 away from home, the two wins came against Chicago and Cleveland and Washington is clearly a step above both of those teams. The defense is one of the best in the NFL, but this is the first test in a long time and we are not sold that Minnesota should be favored in this spot. The Redskins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record while the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. Washington keeps the momentum going while slowing down Minnesota. 10* (252) Washington Redskins

The Bills are coming off a humbling effort last Thursday as they lost to the Jets in New York and the final score makes it look better than it was they scored two late garbage touchdowns. It was the worst loss of the season for Buffalo as its other two losses came by a combined 10 points. Both of those defeats were on the road as well and Buffalo came back to win its next game at home. Overall, the Bills are 4-0 at home despite getting outgained in three of those. This is the time of year where Buffalo has a big home field advantage as temperatures will be in the low 40s and it is especially advantageous when facing a warm weather team or a dome team. The Saints are the second hottest team in the NFL right now behind the Eagles as they have won six straight games following a 0-2 start. All of the victories have been rather easy as all have come by at least eight points, so it comes as no surprise that they have covered all of those games as well. The defense has been the biggest surprise as New Orleans has allowed 17 points less in five of those victories, so it has been a complete turnaround from the last few years and the first two games of the season. Of course, the offense cannot be overlooked as the Saints are ranked No. 2 overall and No. 6 in points scored so they are playing at a high level on both sides of the ball. The Bills have the No. 6 ranked scoring defense, so it will be a battle of strengths and we have to give the edge to the home team in this situation. Another edge that cannot be overlooked is Bills head coach Sean McDermott has seen the Saints numerous times with his time at Carolina. 10* (264) Buffalo Bills

Cleveland remains one of two winless teams in the NFL and are on a 1-24 run so backing the Browns may seem ludicrous but they are in an excellent spot this week based on the scheduling as well as past history in the NFL. They have covered only once in their last seven games but have been involved in some close games as four of their eight losses have come by a field goal and Cleveland has outgained four of eight opponents as well. The Browns lost their last game in London and are coming off their bye week which is a key factor here. Going back to 1980, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 18-3-1 ATS when coming off their bye week. Defensively, Cleveland has been surprisingly good as it is ranked No. 9 overall and No. 4 against the rush and Detroit has a less than average rushing attack. The Lions snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Packers on Monday night and the scheduling could not be worse. They are coming off two straight nationally televised primetime games including that divisional game against the Packers and have two divisional games on deck including a showdown with Minnesota on Thanksgiving. While Detroit has won the yardage battle in its last two games, it was outgained in its previous five games and even though this is Cleveland they are facing, they are overpriced and have never been good as big favorites by going 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games when favored by more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. This is a tricky spot for Detroit as looking past the Browns could result in an outright loss which would derail a chance of winning the NFC North. 10* (265) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. With the loss to the Redskins last Sunday, the Seahawks fell a game behind the Rams in the NFC West and can ill afford another loss here with the Rams double-digit favorites at home on Sunday over Houston. Seattle opened the season 0-2 on the road but has won its last two roadies including a win over the Giants the only time it was favored on the highway. The Seahawks managed only 14 points against the Redskins, but they did put up 437 yards of offense and they are now No. 4 in total offense in the NFL. They have an Arizona defense that is ranked No. 23 overall and No. 27 in scoring after last season finishing No. 2 and No. 14 in those categories respectively. The Cardinals won against San Francisco on the road last week, but it was not a great effort as they won the yardage battle by only 39 yards. They got a big game from Adrian Peterson but take away his 159 yards rushing, and Arizona had a mere 209 yards of offense from the rest of the team. Drew Stanton made his first start in place of Carson Palmer and he was average at best and now he faces a real defensive test. Seattle has been up and down on defense, but it is still ranked No. 6 in scoring defense and Stanton has had his troubles. In two games against Seattle, he is 22-44 for 233 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions for a 37.4 quarterback rating. Arizona has held its own in this series, but this is a different Arizona team than we have seen in the past. Going back, the Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Thursday games while the Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (111) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime play. The Packers have dropped two straight games, one with Brett Hundley taking over for Arron Rodgers and the other with Hundley starting for Rodgers. Green Bay now hopes to remain over .500 and keep pace with the Vikings in the NFC North and are once again catching points at home. We played on the Packers two weeks ago when they faced the Saints and a late touchdown by New Orleans prevented the cover. They are in a good spot this week as they are coming off their bye week and while that means not a ton more practice time for Hundley, any additional amount is important as is the added preparation time. Detroit is on a similar run as it has lost three straight games including a home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Now the Lions go from the rare situation of being a home underdog to a road favorite which is an aggressive move. This is not a good role they are in as going back to 2013 and not counting Week 17 when starters have rested, Detroit is 0-6 ATS as road favorites, losing five of those games outright. Green Bay has been favored by six points or more in every home series meeting since 2012 so the linesmakers have adjusted the number by eight points with the Rodgers absence and that is too big of a move even what his presence means to the team. Going back, the Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record while the Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (474) Green Bay Packers

This line has been fluctuating all week and it is now finally settling in as the Ezekiel Elliott news has become official that he will be able to suit up this weekend as his suspension has been delayed yet again. Dallas has won two straight games on the road and it will be out to snap a two-game losing streak at home where it lost to Green Bay by four points and Los Angeles by five points. The Cowboys won the yardage battle in all four of these games, so they are playing at a high level as they try to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. The offense is firing on all cylinders as they have averaged 33.5 ppg over this four-game stretch and they can keep that going this week in facing the No. 30 ranked defense in the NFL. Overall, Dallas is ranked No. 8 in offense and No. 5 in scoring offense. Kansas City rebounded from a two-game slide with a win over Denver last Monday and while it sounds like a broken record, they were outgained once again, making it three straight games they have been outyarded. On the season, Kansas City is getting outgained by 15 ypg which is not much but a 6-2 team that is getting outgained is a concern which includes three wins where they were outyarded. Dallas meanwhile is outgaining opponents by 45 ypg and it has won the yardage battle in all three home games. Coming off a pair of divisional games and with a bye on deck puts the Chiefs in a tough spot. Additionally, it is a short week for the Chiefs and they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (470) Dallas Cowboys

The Cardinals are playing their first game with Drew Stanton as the starting quarterback after Carson Palmer was lost for the season in a 33-0 loss to the Rams in London. Arizona did have an advantage of having its bye week to get Stanton working with the first team but because of the new CBA, it did not amount to much more practice time. The Cardinals are now 3-4 on the season and they trail the Seahawks and Rams by two games, so things are looking bleak at this point. Last season, the Cardinals were one of only two teams in the NFL, New England being the other, that finished in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. This season, they are ranked No. 16 and No. 24 in total offense and defense respectively showing how much they have fallen. The 49ers have fallen as well as after a 2-14 season last year, they are off to the first 0-8 start in franchise history which says a lot as there have been some lean years in San Francisco. They have played better than the record shows as they have five losses by three points or less and coming off a pair of blowout losses against two elite teams puts them in a great spot returning home. San Francisco will also be out for some payback following an overtime loss in Arizona last month as they took a lead with a field goal but allowed a Palmer touchdown pass with just 32 second left in the extra session. That was the fifth straight win for Arizona in this series, but this is the most watered-down Cardinals team over this stretch. The Cardinals are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the 49ers have covered six straight divisional games. 10* (466) San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks were involved in an epic game last week against Houston as they pulled out a 41-38 win with a touchdown pass with just 21 seconds remaining. That was just their third lead in the game and they were outrushed for the fourth time in seven games. Seattle is tied with Los Angeles atop the NFC West thanks to four straight wins and while it is 3-0 at home, two of those victories were by three points and the only blowout win came against 2-6 Indianapolis which was not decided until the fourth quarter. The typically stingy defense has been exposed on occasion this season and it comes in ranked No. 17 in the NFL while now facing another offense that can take advantage. Additionally, Seattle is almost certain to be without Safety Earl Thomas. Washington has dropped two straight games to fall to 3-4 and it cannot afford many more slipups as it is a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot with six other teams battling for the final spot. The Redskins have failed to cover their last four games which has inflated this line that has gone over a touchdown in some places. This game will add to the difficult schedule the Redskins have endured thus far which is currently No. 5 in the league compared to the Seahawks which have played the No. 29 schedule in the NFL. While the Seattle defense has been underachieving, the Washington defense has been a solid unit as it is ranked No. 12 in the league overall and it has good balance, being ranked No. 13 both against the rush and the pass. The Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games while the Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. 10* (467) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Eagles have won six straight games and have a one game lead over Minnesota for the best record in the NFC. They have covered five straight games as well, but they are in a difficult scheduling spot here with this being their third straight home game. Some people may seem that as an advantage, but it is not especially coming off consecutive wins in the first two as the third game can make a team lethargic as well as inflate lines. We expect the former to happen and the latter has happened with this number tipping over a touchdown. Not to mention the fact that Philadelphia has a bye next week which is another sign of a possible letdown. Denver meanwhile has lost three straight games, the last two coming on the road making this its third straight road game which is a good thing here. The Broncos will have a sense of urgency after losing to the Chargers and Chiefs on the road and because of the three straight losses, people are writing them off as being a fraud. Denver is making a change at quarterback and while it is Brock Osweiler, a change can only be a good thing at this point as the Broncos have scored only 29 points during their losing streak. The defense continues to hold its own however and gives the team a chance to win and that is proven by the fact Denver has outgained every opponent this season, the only team in the NFL that can say that. The Broncos are outgaining opponents by over 80 ypg compared to 44.7 ypg for the Eagles and Denver has played the harder schedule, No. 10 versus No. 26 for Philadelphia. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record while the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 10* (451) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. Buffalo is the talk of the NFL right now as it is 5-2 which is tied for its best start since 1999 and the playoffs are looking realistic in what has turned into a weak AFC. The Bills bolstered their offense right at the trade deadline with the acquisition of Kelvin Benjamin from Carolina which shows that they are taking this good start for real. They are road favorites this week because of the perceived opponent and not because they have succeeded much on the road as they are 1-2 with the win being over Atlanta. On paper, that looks like a great victory, but the Falcons are struggling right now. Overall, the Bills have been outgained in their last six games, so they have been fortunate along the way. The Jets have been playing well despite three straight losses as those have come by an average of five ppg which came after a surprising three-game winning streak. New York lost the first meeting in Buffalo by nine points as it was outgained 408-214 so while the game itself was not close, it was the first game of the season and the revamped roster has not played together but those players are now in sync which has resulted in a run of competitive games. Part of the reason for success by Buffalo is that it leads the NFL in turnover margin at +14 with its 3 giveaways the fewest and 17 takeaways tied for the most. This cannot last, and it has skewed its numbers as it is No. in scoring defense but just No. 17 in total defense while sitting only No. 25 in total offense. The public will be on the Bills, but we will take the live home dog. 10* (308) New York Jets

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Primetime play. The Chiefs and Broncos are both riding two-game losing streaks and Kansas City can take a 2.5-game lead in the division at the halfway point with a victory. That being said, this is a bigger game for the Broncos as pulling to within a half game would keep them around as a loss could potentially send them packing. The offense is the obvious concern as Denver was shutout last week for the first time 25 years and it has managed only one touchdown in the last 11 quarters. The Broncos must get their running game going which was one of the best through four games but has taken a step back over the last two contests. The good news is that only four teams give up more yards per carry than the 4.7 surrendered by the Chiefs and Jamaal Charles should have a little extra in the tank in his return to Kansas City. In 50 possessions over their last four games, the Broncos have scored just three touchdowns and made seven field goals. They have also missed three field goal attempts, lost three fumbles, turned the ball over on downs five times and thrown five interceptions to go with 20 punts and five instances where time ran out on them. Inconsistent to say the least but facing a weak defense will help. The Denver defense will get a boost with the return of outside linebacker Shane Ray who has missed the first six games of the season after wrist surgery. The Broncos give up just 71.8 ypg on the ground which is the best in the league and their 3.0 ypc allowed is also tops in the NFL. Additionally, they have yet to give up a rushing touchdown. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game while the Broncos are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up loss. 10* (273) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. With the loss of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers, the NFC North is more wide open and Detroit has an excellent shot to win the division. The Lions are 3-3 and sit a game and a half behind Minnesota following a pair of losses in their last two games but they are coming off their bye week, so they are in good position to regain that winning form. A three-point loss against Carolina and a four-point loss against Atlanta were tough defeats, especially the latter as the Lions were inches away from a victory. Detroit will not have it easy this week against the Pittsburgh defense but playing at home and in a rare primetime national television game is a big bonus. Teams coming off blowout losses followed by a bye week are typically in very good spots if they are at least considered a good team which the Lions are at this point and they have thrived themselves as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. After suffering a bad loss at home against Jacksonville, the Steelers were left for dead by some, but they responded with two big wins against Kansas City as underdogs two weeks ago and a blowout victory over Cincinnati last week. They are now a game and a half ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North, so they are again feeling good about themselves which often puts teams like that in difficult spots, especially when taking to the road. The Steelers are playing well on the road this season as they are 3-1 but with the exception of the win over the Chiefs, the victories over Cleveland and Baltimore are not impressive and the loss to the Bears was even worse. 10* (272) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Month. Last week, NFL underdogs were 3-10-1 ATS as the sharps were killed and the books took a huge hit with all but one public favorite hitting. The 49ers will be first anti-public play this week as they are one of two winless teams in the NFL, but they are not playing like it. Last week was the exception when they got hammered by Dallas but prior to that, their last five losses were by a combined 13 points including a pair coming in overtime on the road. This is now their fourth road game in their last five and while the matchup seems like a mismatch, the line is taking that into consideration. We lost with the Eagles on Monday night as they won by 10 points despite outgaining the Redskins by just 27 total yards and at 6-1, they are moving into the top spot in several power rankings which is a bit aggressive at this point. The Eagles have covered four straight games which is the number to start looking when fading these streaks. Carson Wentz is being talked about as the MVP and while he is having a great season, all this talk does nothing but hurt them value wise. Philadelphia is outgaining opponents by 41.5 ypg which is just No. 10 in the league so it has not been running away in that regard. Coming off two straight primetime nationally televised games, the Eagles are surely in for a letdown and with the Broncos on deck, staying focused for this game will be next to impossible. Additionally, the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game while the 49ers have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (259) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots are coming off their best and most complete win on the season as they defeated Atlanta at home last Sunday night 23-7 while outgaining the Falcons by 60 total yards. We say best and most complete because of the opponent as they took care of a team that was hungry for a revenge win from the past Super Bowl and New England did not allow it as the defense rose to the occasion, holding Atlanta to a late fourth quarter touchdown despite giving up 353 total yards. The big thing was that the Patriots allowed just one red zone score in four Atlanta trips inside the 20-yard line. This defense is not that good to be consistent like that and the Chargers should have a better time of driving and putting up points. After a 0-4 start, the Chargers are riding a three-game winning streak and while getting back into the AFC West hunt may seem unlikely, Los Angeles is only two games out with the Chiefs and Broncos having each dropped two straight games. On the season, the Chargers are +4.4 ypg in yardage differential which is small but positive nonetheless while New England is -16 ypg in the same category so these teams are more equal than what the records show and what the line is telling us. The Chargers 23 sacks are tied for fourth most in the NFL so applying pressure to Tom Brady, who has been sacked 18 times, should be no issue. Los Angeles is No. 17 in the league on offense which is not great but even with the effort last week, the Patriots are dead last in the NFL in total defense. Going back, the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (265) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Flacons have dropped three straight games, all against AFC East teams and Sunday they will try to avoid going winless against a division they should have gone 3-1 against at a minimum. Atlanta won the yardage battle against both Buffalo and Miami, so it should not have dropped both of those games but now it can take its frustrations out on the lowly Jets. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by 45 ypg and their 6.2 yards per play average is second best in the NFL so while the offense looks like it is struggling, it is only struggling to put points on the board. Atlanta is now a game behind New Orleans in the NFC South with a game at Carolina looming, so this is a must win. The Jets are coming off another tough loss as they blew a 14-point lead against Miami and lost by three points. That is a tough loss to come back from and after a close loss to the Patriots prior to that, getting up for this one seems impossible. New York has exceeded expectations already with three wins but none of those were quality victories although a win over Jacksonville is looking a little better. The Jets continue to make mistakes as they are -2 in turnover margin which is not horrible, but they are the only team in the NFL that has at least one turnover in every game. That is a perfect recipe for the Falcons that have just three takeaways on the season which is the fewest in the league. New York is sixth worst in the league in yardage margin despite playing several close games and if ever there is a time for another blowout, this is the one. Atlanta has covered five of its last six games against losing teams. 10* (255) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS Baltimore opened the season 2-0 but it has been a struggle since then as the Ravens have gone 1-4 over their last five games as the offense has really struggled over this recent stretch. The Ravens are coming off a loss at Minnesota this past Sunday and while they only lost by eight points, it was a garbage touchdown with no time left that made it look respectable. They managed only 64 rushing yards and 144 passing yards and while it is hard to defend this type of output, the Vikings are No. 4 in total defense, the fourth top seven defense they have faced over this 1-4 stretch. Miami has a strong defense of its own, but it just allowed 28 pints against the Jets and Baltimore has to just look back to last season when it hung 38 points on the Dolphins. Miami is the worst above .500 team in football as its -46.4 ypg differential is the lowest of any team above .500 so the 4-2 start is an illusion. The offense got a spark last week when Jay Cutler got hurt and Matt Moore came into the game and led the Dolphins to the 14-point comeback against the Jets, but they are still ranked dead last in the league in total offense and No. 31 in scoring offense. Baltimore is two games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North and already has one head-to-head loss against the Steelers, so this is a big game to keep pace in the division. Going back, the Dolphins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (102) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Monday Primetime play. Philadelphia enters Monday night riding a four-game winning streak and has become the toast of the NFL with a 5-1 record. The Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC at +425 but these lofty expectations have now taken value away as they are overpriced in this divisional game. Typically, we plan for a three-point number in a divisional game when teams are not too far off from each other and that is the case here. Philadelphia is 2-0 at home but it nearly lost to the Giants while getting outgained by 61 yards and took care of Arizona as it scored 21 first quarter points. The Eagles won the first meeting back on opening day by 13 points, but the game was closer than that throughout as they scored on a fumble recovery in the final two minutes to seal it. Washington is 3-2 and this is a game it needs to win to keep pace in the NFC East. A loss would put the Redskins 2.5 games behind Philadelphia and it would essentially be 3.5 games because of the head-to-head sweep. The Washington offense has been consistent which was a concern coming in with a new receiving corps as the Redskins are ranked No. 7 overall. Their worst game was the opener, but they can be given a mulligan for that based on it being the first game. Washington finished No. 28 in total defense in 2015 and 2016 and is up to No. 12 this season which is a significant turnaround. Washington has been a solid team away from home as going back to last season, it has covered 10 of its last 13 road games including a 4-1 ATS record against winning home teams. 10* (477) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime play. We often talk about revenge and how it can come into play in certain spots. Typically, it is a situation that is secondary to another positive situation but in this case, it is the main ingredient. No need to go into details about the revenge but the Falcons have had this one on their calendars since the schedule came out in April. Shying away from road revenge is usually recommended but not here as Atlanta will go all out and it certainly has what it takes to win this one. The Falcons are coming off a pair of home losses against Buffalo and Miami and those are two games they no doubt should have won as they won the yardage battle in both games but were -3 in net turnovers. Overall, it has been a lethargic start to the season as games against the Bears and Lions could have resulted in losses as well but if there is a game to jumpstart the season, this is it. The Patriots are not looking good right now. We thought they may have turned a corner and backed them last week, but they failed to cover and were close to losing to the Jets and this team is not right. Whether it is age on offense or lack of chemistry on defense, this team is vulnerable to anyone right now as they have been outgained in four straight games. The Falcons can carve up this defense which makes this a game that can go either way, so a field goal finish gets the win if you can get the hook on the three. New England has failed to cover all three games at home this season while the Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. 10* (475) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Broncos are coming off an ugly loss last Sunday night as they fell by 13 points as a 13.5-point favorite and it was an ugly game not because they played poor football but because they lost too many intangibles. Denver lost the turnover battle 3-0, missed a pair of field goals and were bad in the redzone. The Broncos outgained the Giants 412-266 so they clearly dominated but these things can happen in football and the good thing for us is that the reaction is to the score and not what happened so we get line value which is the case here. Denver has outgained all five opponents as the loss at Buffalo was another game it could have won if not for losing the intangibles. After a 0-4 start, the Chargers have won two straight games and five of their six games overall have been decided by five points or less. That seems to point toward another close game here, considering the Broncos won the first meeting at home by just three points, but looking at the complete body of work, the Broncos are the superior team on both sides of the ball. As is the case with Chargers home games, the Denver fans will dominate the stadium as this Los Angeles team has the worst home field edge in the NFL. This is a revenge game for the Chargers but Denver has won seven of the last eight meetings so there has been a lot of revenge in the past that the Chargers could not take care of. The Broncos have covered five of their last seven games following a loss while the Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. 10* (473) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We played against the Packers last Sunday and the win was made a lot easier because of the unfortunate injury to Aaron Rodgers. Now with Rodgers out, everybody is calling the Packers done but that is hardly the case. They are not Super Bowl contenders without Rodgers but playing in the NFC North makes them a legitimate division contender because it is so weak. Brett Hundley will be making the start in place of Rodgers and people will point to his poor effort last week. Coming into a game against a strong defense after not having practiced with the first string is a lot different than having a full week of practice to prepare. Plus, Hundley has been in this system for three years so he will be just fine, especially against the Saints defense. New Orleans is coming off a win at home against Detroit and while the score looks lopsided, the Lions lost the game on their own as they committed five turnovers that led to short fields and points for the Saints. New Orleans has won three straight games following a 0-2 start but we are not overly impressive as one win came against the Panthers before Cam Newton turned his season around while the other one came against Miami in London, part of a brutal Dolphins travel log. While this road game looks like a cakewalk to some, that is simply not the case. Not only do we back a Green Bay team that is still very talented but we are getting incredible line value as the Rodgers injury has created an eight-point swing and it is hard to justify an adjustment like that based on one player no matter how good or how important he is to the team. 10* (466) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Sportsbooks were taking bets before the season started on whether the Jets would go winless this season and after a 2-0 start, it was looking like it could still happen. New York then went on to win three straight games and then played the Patriots very tough last week so there has been an impressive turnaround. Coming off that close call last week however puts the Jets in a horrible spot on Sunday as that can cause a true letdown the following week. The venue has played a big part in the success of New York as it has outgained opponents by 101.3 ypg in three home games but has been outgained by 180 ypg in three road games. The Jets won in Cleveland despite being outgained by 207 yards as they took advantage of three Browns turnovers and the Dolphins will have to avoid that similar outcome. Miami has won two in a row over Tennessee and Atlanta including coming back from 17 points down against the Falcons last week. It has not been a very good season for Miami despite being 3-2 as the start to the season was incredibly tough as the Dolphins went six straight weeks of being on the road dating back to the preseason. The defense is flying under the radar as Miami is No. 3 in scoring and No. 11 overall and that can carry them again here. Additionally, Miami will be out to avenge a 20-6 loss in New York last month as it failed to score until the final play of the game. Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Browns are a team to be played in certain spots and this is one of those. Cleveland is winless at 0-6 while it has failed to cover five straight games. We were involved in the first non-cover of this streak where we took the Browns against Baltimore and they had late chances to cover but failed. Now after four subsequent non-covers, we will be backing Cleveland this week at home as this team has been better than the record indicates. Three of the losses have come by just three points and on the season, the Browns are getting outgained by only 2.4 ypg. We won with Tennessee on Monday night as it came to life in the fourth quarter to defeat the Colts by 14 points as it put up 21 points in the final period. The Titans now have to hit the road on short rest after what was considered a big win as it was the first Monday night game since 2014 and they were able to snap an 11-game losing streak against the Colts so do not expect to see their best effort this week. Marcus Mariota was limited last week as he was not able to move around much and may be forced to scramble more here as the Browns defense is a very solid unit as they are ranked No. 8 overall and No. 6 in rushing defense. They are allowing just 3.0 ypc which is tied for the best in the NFL and that will surprise a lot of people. Making matters even worse, Tennessee has a bye next week which could further add to its lack of focus against the 0-6 Browns. The Titans are 5-23-3 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* (452) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Primetime play. After going against the Chiefs last Sunday, we will be on their side this week despite laying road chalk and despite having to travel out west on a short week. Kansas City ran into a stout Steelers defense as it managed only 251 yards of offense and lost its first game of the season while also dropping its first game against the number. They head to Oakland with a 3-0 road record including impressive wins over New England and Houston and we can expect a bounce back as the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Seven of those covers were outright wins by double-digits. We projected the Raiders to be an overrated team this season after its success a season ago as the public was riding them as the favorites to take down the Patriots in the AFC and as expected, they have fallen flat. Oakland has lost four straight games after a 2-0 start and the offense has been horrible as the Raiders have averaged just 13.3 ppg during the four-game skid and they have dropped down to No. 30 in total offense. Typically, this would be a spot to play on Oakland based on the losing streak but things just are not right and Derek Carr looks like he came back too soon. One thing to take note is that some losing streaks can be unlucky but Oakland has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 144.3 ypg. They have had troubles with the Chiefs over the last few years with five straight losses so revenge is in play but not in this spot. 10* (301) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Monday Primetime play. We waited on this game for confirmed injury reports and Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota has been upgraded to probable which is good news for a team that has dropped two straight games. Both of those were on the road both were horrible efforts as the Titans managed only 14 and 10 points against the Titans and Dolphins respectively so return home should lift them up. The Colts have the third-worst pass defense in the NFL, which could be the perfect recipe for Mariota and the Titans to get the offensive going once again. The Colts are coming off a win last Sunday in overtime at home against San Francisco to improve to 2-3 on the season. The lone victories have come against teams that are a combined 0-12 and both of those were at home. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has gotten more comfortable as the season has progressed but he is still pretty raw and he struggled in his lone road start at Seattle. The Tennessee defense is not as strong as that of the Seahawks but it is good enough to provide pressure and make him uncomfortable. Indianapolis has lost six of its past seven primetime games and is 2-8 in its last 10 with five of those eight losses coming by double digits, and three of the past four have been by 21 or more points. This is the Titans first Monday night appearance since November 2014 so tonight is a big deal in Nashville. This has been a one-way series of late as the Colts have won 11 straight games in the series, and 16 out of the past 17 games. Tonight provides a great opportunity to end this streak as the energized home crowd will provide a big lift for Tennessee. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

We steered clear of the Chiefs last week as they defeated Houston Sunday night to improve to 5-0 and they remain the lone undefeated team in the NFL. They are also the only undefeated team against the number and they are once again a public favorite this week, sitting as the second highest consensus home team on the card. Going back to last season, the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games which is pretty incredible for a team that gets very little fanfare. It has been a different team in that Kansas City is getting it done with big plays as opposed to the typical dink-and-dunk approach of past seasons. While the offense is getting the praise, the defense has taken little heat for being ranked No. 27 in the league. It is not one bad aspect as Kansas City has struggled against both the run and pass. The Steelers have been an early season disappointment as they are 3-2 with an embarrassing loss against Jacksonville last week at home while also losing at Chicago three weeks ago in overtime and that is the Bears lone win on the season. Costly turnovers and special teams mistakes have hurt but this is still a dangerous offense with plenty of playmakers that can take advantage of the Kansas City defense. One mainstay is the defense that is ranked No. 6 in points allowed and No. 3 in total defense. Many will point to the fact this is a double-revenge game for the Chiefs so they will be highly motivated for payback but a big concern for Kansas City backers is why is this line so low for supposedly the best team in the NFL playing a team struggling to find it identity? The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (269) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Rams lost a tough one at home last week against Seattle as it fell by six points despite winning the yardage battle by 134 total yards and now they hit the road for a third time looking to stay undefeated on the highway. They defeated San Francisco and Dallas and are in a good spot to stay unblemished despite this being called a trap game by some coming off a division game with a division game on deck. The fact Los Angeles lost last week is working in our favor this week so there will be no look ahead to Arizona. The Rams possess the second highest scoring offense in the NFL and they are ranked No. 5 in total offense thanks to a resurgent Jared Goff who is managing the game well after struggling in his rookie season where he finished 80th in QBR of all quarterbacks. Jacksonville is also 3-2 on the season following a win in Pittsburgh last week despite getting outgained by 58 total yards as it took advantage of Steelers turnovers that resulted in a pair of defensive touchdowns. The defense has been the story, namely because of last week, but despite ranking No. 5 in points allowed, the Jaguars are No. 14 in total defense so it has been playing the bend and do not break model. This is also affecting the offense as the points off defensive scores have inflated the numbers as Jacksonville is No. 5 in points scored but just No. 19 in total offense. This shows how turnovers can skew a lot of things including records as the Jaguars are top ranked in the NFL in turnover margin so it will be a priority for the Rams to take care of the ball. The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 10* (265) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. One way to look for line value is to look at your power ratings and figure out what the line would be on a neutral field. Add three points for home field advantage and there is your comparable pointspread. In this case, the Lions and Saints are evenly matched on a neutral field which makes New Orleans a three-point favorite at home but somehow this number has gone from a 3.5-point opening to its current line of six points as of Wednesday afternoon. It would not be surprising to see this number come back down a little but nonetheless, the value is clearly on the Lions. Detroit is coming off a loss against the suddenly resurgent Panthers at home and the game was more lopsided as the score indicates as Detroit put up a couple late touchdowns after trailing 27-10. The Lions have been solid on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 10 in scoring offense and No. 11 in scoring defense and they are a half-yard away on offense from being 4-1 instead of 3-2. The Saints looked awful in their first two games against Minnesota and New England as they lost both games by double-digits and were outgained both times by 126 total yards. Then something clicked as they rolled over the Panthers in Carolina before they started their comeback and then shut out the Dolphins in London although that is not saying a lot. The defense was atrocious in those first two games and while it looked better the last two, Carolina is still ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring and Miami is ranked dead last. Detroit should have no issues moving the ball and putting up points. While Drew Brees is known for his success after a bye week, Matthew Stafford is 5-0 ATS in his last five games after a bye while the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (257) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We played against Minnesota on Monday as it won in Chicago but failed to cover and now the Vikings go from a road favorite to a home underdog which is a great situation to play into. Minnesota is 3-2 to start the season and will be without San Bradford again this week which is a good thing as he was clearly not right last week when he made the start. Case Keenum came in and played a great game as he went 17-21 for 140 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings have outgained four of five opponents including all three home games where they have covered 24 of their last 32 games. Green Bay came from behind last week against the Cowboys, scoring the game winning touchdown with 11 seconds remaining. That was a huge road victory for the Packers and a letdown is always a possibility and like the Vikings, they switch roles, going from a road underdog to a road favorite. Green Bay has been outgained in each of its last two games despite winning and now faces the 7th ranked defense in the NFL. While Minnesota did get to face Mitchell Trubisky last week, it has already faced Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford. Going back to the start of last season, the Vikings have held 19 of 21 opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing. While Green Bay has owned the NFC North, it has lost two of the last three meetings and going back, the Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. This is a huge game for Minnesota to keep pace in the division as a trip later in the season to Green Bay could result in a 0-2 record against the Packers should they lose this one. 10* (260) Minnesota Vikings

The Patriots improved to 3-2 with a win in Tampa Bay last Thursday night but it has been outgained in four of five games so they have been far from the same team we are accustomed to. To their credit, the Patriots have played the 3rd ranked schedule in the NFL so they now finally get a break. In addition to taking a step down in competition, they are playing on an extended break which is the second time this season they have played following a Thursday and the first time resulted in a 16-point win in New Orleans. Going back, Tom Brady has won eight straight games following a Thursday game, winning those by an average 19.8 ppg. The problem for the Patriots has been the defense but it looked its best all season against the Buccaneers and now faces the No. 26 ranked defense in the league. The Jets are off to a surprising 3-2 start despite being near the bottom of the NFL in both offense and defense but they have had the luxury of facing the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns the last three weeks and overall, they have played the No. 27 schedule in the league. Despite the winning record, they are ahead of only three teams in the current power rankings and while one of those is the Browns who they just defeated, they were outgained by 207 yards against Cleveland. New York has held its own against the Patriots at home over the last few years with four straight covers but this is a completely downgraded version of the past editions. Even though New England knows what it will be facing, this is still a divisional rivalry so it will not be taking this team lightly, especially knowing it is tied for the lead in the AFC East. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (253) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. Two of the top teams in the NFC square off on a short week with the winner sitting in good shape as we get closer to the halfway point of the NFL season. Both teams are playing better than what was expected coming into the season and in this matchup, we are backing the better offense which usually is not the case with teams such as these that are so close in record and power rankings. Carolina allowed a total of six points in its first two games against the 49ers and Bills but the Panthers have allowed 29.3 ppg over their last three games, all of which have come against very potent offenses. The bad news is that they face another strong offense as the Eagles are ranked in the top ten in almost every major offensive category including No. 3 in total offense, No. 5 in rushing offense, No. 9 in passing offense and No. 6 in scoring offense. Through five games, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown for just five fewer yards (1,362 yards) than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, and his 10 touchdowns are one fewer than New England's Tom Brady. Wentz is also protecting the ball better this season. He threw touchdowns to four different targets Sunday, which speaks to the upgrade in weapons thanks to offseason spending as well as improvement from homegrown players. Carolina is ranked outside the top half of all of the aforementioned offensive categories even with solid performances the last two games. The Eagles effectively shut down Melvin Gordon and had blanked Kareem Hunt for a good portion of their matchup against the Chiefs and they are ranked No. 2 in rushing defense so they can concentrate on slowing down Cam Newton and the rejuvenated passing game. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (103) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. We are going with a rookie quarterback on national television and while that may seem like a bad move, things will not get any worse for the Bears. They have played horrendous on the road but are a play away from being 2-0 at home against the Falcons and Steelers and this is with former quarterback Mike Glennon playing average. Chicago was getting around a touchdown in both of those home games and while they are not getting that number here, the Bears are still a home underdog and we are not really sure they should be. The Vikings should get Sam Bradford back tonight at quarterback which is an upgrade from Case Keenum who had one great game against the Buccaneers but struggled against the Steelers and Lions. But, it is still unclear how healthy Bradford really is considering the knee could not be played on a few weeks ago and it has been troublesome in the past. The Vikings stop unit is ranked No. 9 in both total defense and scoring defense so they have been able to keep games close as the offense has sputtered to No. 21 in points scored. On the other side, the Bears have allowed 26 ppg which is ranked No. 27 in the NFL but that is skewed. Chicago has allowed four scoring drives that consisted of 3, 7, 13 and 16 yards as turnovers have been the difference where it has given it away 10 times which is tied for third most in the NFL. To put this in perspective, the Bears are ranked No. 6 in the NFL in total defense. Chicago has covered four straight games after scoring 15 or fewer points while the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (476) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Sunday NFL Star Attraction. After Dallas lost to Denver, people were sour on the Cowboys and they bounced back to win against the Cardinals the following week. After a home loss against the Rams last week, the public is again sour on the Cowboys and they will be hammering the Packers and early consensus reports are proving that. This is a perfect example of the short-term memory of the public as they remember what they saw the week before and take that too much into account. While the Cowboys are just 2-2, they are better than the record shows and we can expect a bounce back and while the sample size is small, the Cowboys have won all three regular season games following a loss over the last two years. There is an exception as they lost in Week 17 to the Eagles and then lost their first playoff game off a bye week and it happened to come right here against the Packers so there is some payback motivation in store as well. Green Bay took care of Chicago last Thursday on a short week as it caught the Bears in a tough travel spot coming off an overtime win over the Steelers four days before. Now the Packers have additional prep and rest this week but they hit the road where they have been very average. Since 2012, the Packers are 21-20 on the highway during the regular season and that is the epitome of average. This is even more true knowing that Green Bay is 33-9-1 at home over this same stretch. The Packers have been outrushed in all four games and they are now thin at the running back position with the injury to Ty Montgomery who is questionable with broken ribs and this not a good matchup as the Cowboys are 15-1 the last two seasons when winning the rushing battle. 10* (472) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. Seattle pulled away for us last Sunday night over the Colts and that was a much needed second half to try and gain some momentum after an average start to the season. While much has been said about the offense, the further the season moves along, the better they will become and it is hard to ignore the fact they have outgained each of their last three opponents and by a combined 317 total yards. This is one of the most talented teams in the NFL but as is the case most weeks, they are not the public favorite because of what is going on in Los Angeles. The Rams are the talk of the league right now and kudos to head coach Sean McVay for making them relevant again, for at least a quarter of a season. They are coming off an impressive come-from-behind win over the Cowboys last Sunday as they outscored Dallas 19-6 in the second half but the Cowboys did themselves in with mistakes at the wrong times. The other two wins have come against San Francisco and Indianapolis which are the same as Seattle but again, when looking at talent, the Seahawks are clearly superior. The public is on the Rams though and we can thank the media for that despite the fact Los Angeles has been outgained in each of its last three games. Seattle opened as the chalk here but the line flipped and for no reason as it comes back to the talent gap as well as past success or lack thereof. The Rams have played Seattle very tough in recent years as they have covered seven of the last 10 meetings, winning half of those games outright but now that the Rams have caught the public eye, the Seahawks will not be looking past them which they have been guilty of in the past. 10* (467) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our Sunday NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Colts are coming off a loss in Seattle last Sunday but if they can take any positives away, it was how good they played for a half. They led by five points at halftime before Seattle pulled away because of turnovers and it finally got its offense going. It was not a good spot for Indianapolis as the Seahawks were coming off a loss in Tennessee while the Colts were coming off their first win of the season. Obviously, this is a different team without Andrew Luck at quarterback but Jacoby Brissett has been pretty solid and he did have his best game at home in his last start against the Browns and he gets a similar matchup this week. Defensively, the Colts have been awful as they are ranked No. 32 in scoring defense and No. 31 in total defense but they can bring those rankings up after this weekend. San Francisco is coming off a tough overtime loss at home against Arizona which was their third straight close loss. The 49ers have lost their last three games by a combined eight points but two of those are a little skewed and now they head east for the first time this season. The 49ers offense has struggled for the majority of the season as taking away 13 late points scored against the Rams, they have scored just 53 points in their other 236 minutes of play. Noy only is traveling east a bad thing for San Francisco but traveling anywhere has been an issue for a while as it has won just two of its last 18 road games while the Colts have covered 17 of their last 22 games coming off a loss when not playing a division opponent. While the majority of those are with Luck in the lineup, the number they are laying is a short one and should have no trouble covering as a win likely means a ticket casher. 10* (462) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Dolphins are off to a 1-2 start and should be 0-3 if not for a missed Chargers field goal and while the play has been poor, they have had to deal with one of the worst travel schedules we have seen. The hurricane forced them to cancel their first game of the season and went out west to get ready for the Chargers. Miami then had to travel east to face the Jets and then had to go further East to London to face the Saints. The Dolphins are now ready to finally host their first game of the regular season and it took a month to do so and we will see their best effort of the season after scoring one garbage touchdown with no time left over their last two games. Even going back further, they have not played a home game since August 17 as their last two preseason games were also on the road. The line came out late here because of the uncertain status of Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota but his presence or absence does not matter in this spot as this is more of a play on the Dolphins and the situation that favors them. We played against Tennessee last week in Houston and after getting thumped by the Texans, the Titans would typically be in a great spot to bounce back. This is not one of those however as they are travelling into a tough situation in the second of back-to-back road games with an ailing quarterback. Tennessee has outgained only one opponent this season which is not good for a supposed deep playoff contender and last week could not have gone worse after getting outgained by 260 yards. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Titans are 4-22-3 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins

This is considered a must win game for the Patriots which are coming off their second loss of the season and could feasibly be sitting 1-3 right now if not for a late comeback against the Texans. While still considered one of the best teams in the NFL, New England is going to be fine once we get into the latter part of the season but right now, this team cannot be trusted laying points on the road with the current state of its defense. Tom Brady has been a master throughout his career when coming off a loss in a game he should not have lost as he has won 16 of 19 games following a loss as a favorite but he has never had a defense behind him like this one. New England has allowed all four quarterbacks it has faced to throw for 300 yards and overall, the Patriots are No. 32 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. To make matters worse, two of their top players, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Dont'a Hightower are banged up with leg injuries and are far from 100 percent. Jameis Winston is off to a solid start and can succeed as well but the Buccaneers are not looking to get into a shootout although with his receiver weapons of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, a shootout would not be a disadvantage. They are getting Doug Martin back tonight which is good for ball control and balance and the aim is to keep the Patriots offense off the field as much as possible. The Tampa Bay defense will be playing a big role in this outcome and while its topline numbers are not very good, the Buccaneers are fourth in the NFL allowing 18.5 yppt. Despite the porous defense, the Patriots are the big consensus once again and the line has gone up because of it. Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 350 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (304) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. The Chiefs were up to it again last week as they won a game despite losing the yardage battle. They took advantage of three Philip Rivers interceptions to jump ahead early and up by just a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, they scored the final touchdown on a 69-yard Kareem Hunt run. This was the second time Kansas City has been outgained this season after getting outgained the majority of the time last season which shows it takes advantage of opportunities when handed out. People are calling this team the best in the NFL right now but it is hard to make that claim when the Chiefs are ranked No. 11 in the NFL in yardage differential. The Redskins won their second straight game last week and it was a dominating performance over the Raiders as they outgained Oakland by 344 total yards thanks to a defense that gave up only 128 total yards and seven first downs. Kirk Cousins was efficient on offense as he completed 25-30 passes for 365 yards and just as important, he completed passes to eight different receivers. Duplicating that performance this week will be tough to do but we do not need a duplication since Washington is getting a touchdown here which is a very overinflated line. The Chiefs have been somewhat vulnerable on defense but they have not paid a price to this point and this is a team that can hurt them as long as they avoid mistakes. The Redskins have not gotten this many points on the road since November of 2015 and even with lower numbers, they have been very lucrative going 10-2 ATS over their last 12 road games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (279) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. Seattle has gotten off to a rough start. Losing at Green Bay and Tennessee while narrowly beating San Francisco at home. This is nothing new though as the Seahawks have started slow in the past only to recover and make it to the postseason and we can expect that again this year. For a team that has looked nothing like a playoff team, laying a big number such as this may seem illogical, the talent on Seattle is arguably the best in the NFL top to bottom. The Seahawks have covered nine of their last 13 games when laying double-digits. The Colts won their first game of the season last week against Cleveland but they nearly gave the game away after piling up a big lead. Indianapolis made a quarterback change after getting blown out in their season opener against the Rams and Jacoby Brissett has not been bad at all, putting up an 85.8 quarterback rating. His first two starts have come at home making this his first road start and it could not come at a tougher venue. In six previous career appears, he has been on the field for just three plays on the road, all this season at Los Angeles. The Colts have been outgained in all three games and on average, they have been outgained by 94 ypg which is the largest margin in the NFL. So, while two of the games have been close, Indianapolis is playing worse than what its 1-2 record is showing. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. Seattle is the only team in the NFL that has failed to cover a game this season and it gets a good opportunity to break that streak Sunday night. 10* (278) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Week. Tennessee is becoming a hot topic, going from Week One loser against the Raiders to a team on the rise ready to contend. We are not saying they are not going in that direction but the Titans are not to the point of laying points on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They are coming off a blowout win over Jacksonville and followed that up with an impressive win last week against Seattle at home although they did their best to give that one away. This will be only the second time that Marcus Mariota has faced the Texans as he missed the season finale last year with an injury and the first meeting did not go well as he was just 13-29 with an interception. Houston is coming off a very admiral effort last week in New England as it nearly pulled off the upset but lost in the final seconds. While it was a tough loss, it is one that the Texans, namely Deshawn Watson, can build on going forward. He did throw two picks but also threw two touchdowns while surpassing 300 passing yards and ran for 41 yards so he is getting more comfortable. Houston returns home where it lost its only game but the offense has improved since then and this is a must victory or it will be sitting two games out of first place with a 0-2 divisional record. The defense was not great last week but not many are when facing the Patriots and last season, the Texans had the best home defense in the NFL, allowing just 300.1 ypg. This is a great spot they have thrived in as the Texans are Houston is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 divisional games off a pair of road games while going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as divisional favorites against teams off a non-divisional game. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Underdogs were 12-4 against the number last week as bookies cleaned up but we will see more of a favorite/underdog split this week so taking some chalk is not a bad thing after a week like that even though we are more contrarian/underdog players. One of those laying points is New England which has put together a couple of duds at home despite pulling out the win last week. The Patriots offense was atrocious in Week One but it has looked much better the last two weeks, putting up 951 yards of total offense and while it faces a strong defense this week, it faced an equally strong defense last week and put up 36 points. This is an important game for New England as it will be working on a short week with a trip to Tampa Bay on Thursday so this one is big. Defensively, the Patriots have been horrific but that should not matter here. For the second week running, the Panthers offense will take on the league's worst ranked defense. Last week the Saints defense ranked 32nd in the NFL, but after a poor performance from Carolina, New Orleans moved up and New England slid down. The Panthers offense is in trouble. Cam Newton is clearly not healthy and is a shell of himself from two years ago. Tight end Greg Olsen is on injured reserve with a broken foot while wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is a question mark after he injured his surgically repaired knee in the loss to New Orleans. Newton is expected to play, but there is a sense of uncertainty surrounding his overall potential. Even with the ATS loss last week, New England is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite while the Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (254) New England Patriots

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons dodged a second bullet last week as they were a half-yard away from a loss while in Week One, they were a dropped Chicago pass from losing. They survived both and now they return home where they have been lights out over the last two seasons including an 11-point win over the Packers which was not as close as that final margin shows. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and it is right on pace for that again this season albeit after just one game. The Falcons fall into a great league-wide situation as we play on single-digit home favorites that are 3-0 on the season. This situation is 24-7-1 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1980. With a bye next week, the Falcons will be fully focused on Sunday. Buffalo is one of two teams, Kansas City being the other, that has covered all three games to open the season based on the closing line. The Bills defeated the Jets opening week but they did struggle at Carolina as they lost 9-3 and last week, they defeated Denver despite getting outgained by 94 yards. We were on Buffalo against the Broncos but we are fading in a big way this week as the situation is not good at all. The Bills have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road and we have already seen that variance this season. The Falcons passing defense has been suspect but Buffalo does not have the passing game to take advantage and cannot play catch-up when falling behind and forcing to pass the ball. The Bills have yet to be tested by a potent offense and they will not be able to match up here. 10* (268) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and have not looked good in doing so. They defeated Seattle in Week One and the Seahawks are clearly down right now, they lost in Atlanta in a game that was not as close as the final score showed and it took a last second touchdown in regulation last week against Cincinnati to eventually prevail in overtime. Green Bay could use a stress-free game to get some momentum going and this is the perfect spot and a much needed one with a game at Dallas next week. Under quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have dominated the Bears, winning 15 of 19 meetings while covering 14 of those games. One of those wins came where Rodgers was knocked out early in the game with a shoulder injury so after a subpar start to the season, he should bust out here. Of the Bears seven losses to Rodgers in Green Bay since 2008, five have come by double figures. We won with the Bears last week as the spot was perfect but now they hit the road once again where they lost their only game on the highway this season, a 29-7 loss in Tampa Bay. Chicago has lost nine straight road games and has covered just two of those with the average margin of defeat being 14.4 ppg in those nine games. The Bears defense has played well thus far, namely the rushing defense, but the passing defense has struggled which is not good in this matchup. On the other side, Chicago quarterback Mike Glennon made only five throws that traveled in the air at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage last week so look for the Packers to challenge the Bears to throw. The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. 10* (102) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our Monday NFL Primetime play. After opening the season with a pair of road games resulting in a split, the Cardinals are back in Arizona for their home opener. They lost to Detroit in their season opener after blowing an early lead which coincided with the loss of David Johnson with a wrist injury. Arizona bounced back with a win at Indianapolis in overtime last week although it dominated the game more than that score indicates. Arizona was arguably the best non-playoff team in football last season as it went 7-8-1 with five of those losses coming by a possession and on the season, the Cardinals finished No. 9 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense and along with the Patriots, they were the only two teams that finished in the top ten in both categories. The Cowboys are coming off a poor effort last week in Denver so there will be plenty of motivation after getting called out internally and numerous time in the media. While motivation will play a part, it is hard to put Dallas in this spot of a road favorite. The Cowboys have not lost back-to-back regular season games since Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were drafted and that is playing a role in this number as well. While not all teams are structured like the Broncos, upcoming opponents like the Cardinals now have a basic blueprint to use against Dallas. The public is riding the Cowboys this week looking for a bounce back but the fact this is the first time since 2014 that Arizona is a home underdog makes this a must take. 10* (490) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Chargers are up to their old tricks. We had a play on San Diego Week One and it resulted in a push for most as it had a field goal blocked as time expired which resulted in a three-point loss. They then lost to Miami last week as a field goal was missed in the final seconds that would have won the game. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so going back to December of 2015, 14 of their last 16 losses have been within reach. While it is only Week Three, this is a must win for Los Angeles as it is already two games out of first place which is occupied all three other teams so being three games out after three games could be the end already. Kansas City is 2-0 and following its very impressive win over New England on opening night, the Chiefs followed up with a win against Philadelphia last week but it was a game they got away with. There were dropped passes, missed interceptions and other opportunities for the Eagles to pull out this win as they won the yardage battle by 62 total yards but lost on the scoreboards. This has been typical for the Chiefs which seems to get outgained two of every three games yet somehow manage to win two of those. Kansas City has won seven consecutive road games so putting them in the favorite role here was a must and even with that, the Chiefs are the biggest public consensus on the entire NFL card for the weekend. That makes this a take all the way. 10* (484) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Game of the Week. Denver must be feeling pretty good about things following a last second victory over San Diego in its season opener and then the dismantling of the Cowboys last week. Now the Broncos go from the rare NFL situation of being home underdogs to road favorites and the spot could not be worse. After opening the season with two home games, Denver has to travel to the east coast for an early start and then heads back home next week to take on hated rival Oakland. The thought is that Denver has a significant home field advantage in December because of the bad weather but it has a bigger edge at home in September because of the altitude and opposing teams not fully conditioned early in the season. The Broncos have now gone 2-0 the last eight times they have opened the season with two straight home games. The Bills could not make it 2-0 as they went to Carolina last week and lost to the Panthers 9-3. The Panthers dominated the time of possession 38:53-21:07 despite running just 12 more plays so Buffalo never really had a chance to get anything going. While the offense struggles, the defense was solid which should carry over into this Sunday. They have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road. The Panthers defense held them in check and while the Broncos defense has been dominant, as said earlier, that was at home. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game while Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games after a win by 14 or more points. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

We played on the Bears in Week One in a fairly similar situation and we will back them again this week. Chicago nearly defeated Atlanta in that season opener but a dropped pass late in the game prevented a 1-0 start but it still managed the cover and now the Bears are catching a bigger number. They followed that tough game with a 22-point defeat at Tampa Bay last week as they missed out on several opportunities. Chicago was outgained by just one yard but a lot of its own yards came in garbage time and while that can be a red flag when looking at stats, the Bears got inside the redzone three times but managed just one touchdown. Now the Bears return home where they have been much more competitive, going 3-6 since the start of last season with four of those six losses coming by less than a touchdown. The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start but it is not a very impressive 2-0. They defeated the Browns by a field goal in their opener and caught a break last week when Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford was ruled out during warmups. Their defense has led the way as they have given up just 237 ypg which is third best in the NFL but the offense is a concern. While they have scored 47 points in two games, they are ranked No. 16 in total offense and they will be facing an underrated Bears front seven with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. They allowed 372 yards against Atlanta but 88 of those yards came on one play. Pittsburgh is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home and it is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games when favored by more than a touchdown. 10* (466) Chicago Bears

Overreactions to the two weeks of the season happen every year and it is no different this season as we are seeing numerous undefeated teams favored on the road because the public loves to ride these supposed great teams. The situation is a little different here as Carolina is playing at home but there is a huge overreaction to what it has done so far. The Panthers are 2-0 with very unimpressive wins over San Francisco and Buffalo. Many will argue that they were in fact impressive considering they allowed just six points total but those came against two offenses that are still searching for answers so those results are a bit skewed. They now face a very potent offense and one that could give them fits which has been the case for years. Offensively, Carolina is challenged as Cam Newton is still not close to 100 percent and not the same player he was two years ago and now he must carry on without tight end Greg Olsen who is out for an extended period of time after breaking his foot last week. The Saints defense is under scrutiny again but they have had a couple tough spot as Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford tore them apart while Patriots quarterback Tom Brady did the same last week. New Orleans had an awful schedule break last week as it was coming off a short week and had to face New England which was coming off a long week after playing the previous Thursday and coming off a loss only made it worse. This is as close to must win as it gets. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (473) New Orleans Saints

The Super Bowl hangover has not affected the Falcons which have won their first two games although they were fortunate to get out of Chicago with a win Week One. They looked great last week at home against the Packers but they were in such a good spot as it was their first home game since losing the Super Bowl and in a brand-new stadium on top of that. The energy was out of control but now they hit the road again as an overvalued team in a suspect role as a road favorite and coming off a Sunday night game against a non-divisional opponent causes a letdown. Clearly, this is a very good team but as pointed out many times over the years, great teams do not win every week and we must find the spots to figure that out. Detroit is also 2-0 following its Monday night win over the Giants. The Lions have been great defensively so far as they are allowing 289 ypg which is No. 7 in the league as they have shut down the Cardinals and Giants. We must decipher if this is a fluke or if the Lions are for real to prove their playoff appearance last season was not a fluke. Last season, Detroit had 26 sacks, tied for second-to-last in the league, forced only nine fumbles and made 10 interceptions, ranking in the bottom third in both categories and that is something that will turn around this season making the defense even stronger. The Lions showed balance on offense last week and they will need that here to control the clock and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Going back, the Lions are 10-3 over their last 13 home games and going back, they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (478) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Thursday Primetime Play. San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL that have not scored a touchdown through the first two weeks of the season while the Rams are averaging 33 ppg which is tied for third in the NFL. Because of this, it comes as no surprise the Rams are favored on the road and the public is eating it up. Los Angeles is the better team here but if the better team always won, there would be no point in playing the games. Even saying that the Rams are the better team may not be true because we have yet to see the real 49ers team and what they are capable of in a matchup like this. While they have yet to score a touchdown, they have played the Seahawks and Panthers, two of the strongest teams and defenses in the NFC and the schedule is ranked No. 8. And they were not dominant in those games as they have been outgained by just 70 and 64 total yards. Los Angeles meanwhile has played the No. 29 ranked schedule as it has faced the Colts, clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL without Andrew Luck, and the Redskins, who have their problems as well. They are now favored for a third straight game and in their first road game of the season no less. While the 49ers lack of offense has been the story, the defense has quietly played very well, allowing just 299.5 ypg and 17.5 ppg, both ranked in the top ten. This unit was expected to be much better this season and so far, it has made improvements and the jury is still out on the Rams offense. The 49ers hit the road for three straight games after this so they know this is a big game to not let the season get away from them early and we will see that effort tonight. 10* (302) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our Monday Primetime play. There were four teams from Week One that are expected to be playoff contenders whose offenses looked in shambles, namely the offensive lines of each. The Bengals, Texans and Seahawks were the first three that played this week and none of those looked much better, scoring 9, 13 and 12 points respectively. The Giants are the fourth team of that group and we are expecting them to show the most improvement. They are coming off a dreadful game at Dallas where they managed just three points and 233 yards of offense. The rushing game was non-existent with only 35 yards and while Eli Manning had only 220 yards through the air, he was efficient by going 29-38. Odell Beckham Jr. has been upgraded to probable and his presence alone even though he is not at 100 percent is huge. The Lions defeated Arizona last week in a come-from-behind victory as they scored 26 unanswered points in the second half before the Cardinals tacked on a late garbage touchdown. Detroit was fortunate that Arizona lost David Johnson as the game took the turn once he left late in the third quarter. The Lions struggles in the run game have been well documented, and nothing that happened last week against the Cardinals offers any hope that is going to change. The Giants have one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL with a solid defensive line and a deep secondary and the Lions will not be repeating their offensive outburst this week. This line opened at 5 and has been brought down to the number we were expecting and hoping to get as the Giants rebound and shake off the offensive woes. 10* (290) New York Giants

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Atlanta escaped its season opener in Chicago as it dodged a fourth quarter bullet as the Bears were unable to get into the endzone late in the game after driving into the redzone. The Falcons head back to Atlanta for their home opener and first game here since their Super Bowl meltdown and it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday night. This is also the first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so it will be rocking. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and after putting up just 23 points in Chicago, this offense will be ready to score a bunch and the Packers know about that all too well. They lost twice here last season, once during the regular season 33-32 and then in the NFC Championship 44-21. This is a different Green Bay team this time around as the defense is healthy so that gives it an edge but Green Bay has never been as good on the road and is coming off a lackluster effort at home against Seattle last Sunday. The Seahawks offensive line showed why it is the weakness of the team so the nine points allowed is a bit skewed because of that. The one weakness in the Packers defense is the secondary and this is not the team it wants to face early in the season especially with Matt Ryan looking in mid-season form, going 21-30 for 321 yards last week. Many will be on the Packers in the double-revenge spot but road revenge is never an easy thing to accomplish and while the Falcons had the Super Bowl hangover last week, that will be gone this week. Any line under a field goal is ideal but even if this settles in at the three points, we are in great shape for an easy cover. 10* (288) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Wiseguy Wipeout. We played against the Broncos last week which resulted in a win or a push depending where and when it was played but we are backing them this week and not because they won last week. That was more of a play on San Diego which was coming off an injury plagued season and still lost numerous close games and that was the result again in Week One this season. Even though Denver has the disadvantage of playing a game after a Monday night late game, it remains home so any disadvantage is negated. Playing early season home games has been beneficial to Denver with success coming from that and a lot of that is based on the rest of the league not being able to keep up. The Broncos have gone 2-0 the last seven times they have opened the season with two straight home games and that can be attributed to conditioning in the high altitude of Denver while the opposition is not ready for the Mile-High air early in the season. Dallas is coming off an impressive home win over the Giants on Sunday night but some of that can be attributed to the Giants inept offense that has no offensive line and no running game which spells big trouble for Eli Manning. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue although that did not come into play against New York. At over 5,000 feet above sea level, that will come into play. The Cowboys were an unheard of 10-0 outside the NFC East last season but only four of those wins were against teams above .500. going back to last season, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record and have no business being a favorite in this spot. 10* (284) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Sunday Enforcer. Washington is coming off an unfortunate home loss against Eagles in its season opener as a two-point game late in the fourth quarter ended up being a comfortable win for Philadelphia after a late turnover was turned into a touchdown despite it being a questionable one that could have been reversed. The Redskins hurt their cause with four turnovers which included three lost fumbles and those can be considered unlucky breaks at the time. Now the Redskins must trek to the west coast in hopes of avoiding a 0-2 start and they catch a Rams team in the perfect spot. Los Angeles is coming off a blowout win over Indianapolis 46-9 but the game was not as one-sided as the score shows. The Rams returned two Scott Tolzien interceptions for touchdowns as he had a horrible game in his first start with the Colts. Los Angeles allowed single-digits after allowing 24.6 ppg last season, good for No. 23 in the league. There will be people hopping back on the Rams train overreacting to that victory but also knowing that head coach Sean McVay will be facing his former team where he was the offensive coordinator while linebackers coach Joe Barry will also be going against his former squad where he was the defensive coordinator. They will know the tendencies of their former players which can be considered an edge but current Washington coaches will know the tendencies of their former coaches so it can be considered a wash. The Redskins have a solid situation on their side as we play against teams coming off an opening game where they scored 40 or more points and playing a team off a loss. This situation is 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1980. 10* (281) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Week. We had Best Bets on both Tennessee and Jacksonville last Sunday but managed to hit just one of those as the Titans fell short at home against Oakland. Tennessee was outgained by just nine total yards as the issue was in the red zone. While Marcus Mariota still has never tossed a red zone interception, the Titans were just 1-3 as they had to settle for two short field goals. While they arguably face a stronger defense this week, their offensive line is going to fare a lot better than what the Texans did last week. The Jaguars defense looked like one of the best in the NFL against Houston as they registered 10 sacks while holding the Texans to only seven points and 203 total yards. Mariota was sacked only once last week and Tennessee allowed the seventh fewest sacks last season. The Titans ran the ball only 21 times last week and we should see more balance this week to take some of the pressure off Mariota who was still efficient against the Raiders despite being one of only eight starting quarterbacks not to throw a touchdown pass. The Titans will be out for revenge as well as they lost here by 21 points on Christmas Eve which knocked them out of the playoffs and also knocked Mariota out for the year. While Jacksonville is riding confidence after the big road win, it is in a tough spot as it has to travel to London next week to face Baltimore and teams have gone 10-21-1 in the 32 games prior to their games in London. Going back, the Jaguars are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (261) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore looked very impressive in a 20-0 win over Cincinnati last Sunday but it was more of a Bengals implosion than a Ravens domination. Cincinnati had five turnovers and while it can be argued the Baltimore defense had a lot to do in forcing those, most of those were on Andy Dalton. The Ravens offense is still a concern as Joe Flacco looked like a quarterback that got no substantial preseason snaps, which he did not, and this unit could struggle for a while. The Ravens did rush for 157 yards which was the third highest in Week One but that total came on 42 carries and their 3.7 ypc average was just middle of the pack. The Browns showed a lot of positives last week against the Steelers, especially on defense where they allowed 290 yards including a mere 35 yards on the ground which was tied for fewest in the league while the 2.1 ypc average was second best. There are still concerns on offense but DeShone Kizer looked pretty comfortable in his first start. The one big thing the Brown have going on offense is their offensive line which is definitely in the top part of the league with key additions to go along with future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas. Cleveland could not run the ball which was a surprise but committing to Isaiah Crowell is a must after he averaged 4.8 ypc last season. It is safe to say Cleveland is a better all-around team than last season yet Baltimore is laying more points now than it was in the matchup here last season and Cleveland came into that game 0-9. This is the classic case of bettors backing Baltimore because of what they saw last week and we need to look toward the future and not rely heavily on the past. 10* (263) Cleveland Browns

Being Week Two, we have our first bounce back situations in play this week but considering both Cincinnati and Houston are coming off embarrassing Week One efforts, the Thursday night game is not in play. The Bengals are in a great spot as hone teams coming off a shutout home loss have covered 70 percent of the time in the last 33 instances but there is no way we would recommend laying a number this big as the line has gone from 3.5 to -7 in some spots. We will be going a contrarian route instead. Scoring a combined seven points in their season openers, we are catching a total that is lower than anticipated and while the over is typically a public play, the under is the consensus here. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope tonight and rightfully so after awful efforts last Sunday. Andy Daulton has been shut out once in his career, back in 2014 against the Colts, and it was a disaster of a game for him with a 55.4 QB Rating. He bounced back with a solid game against the Ravens and the offense managed 27 points. Deshaun Watson took over for Tom Savage in the second half last week and he was average and he now gets the nod on a short week but we think he will be just fine as he showed flashes of what he can do during the preseason. These teams have played each of the last three regular seasons and all three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but all of those closing totals were 41 or higher. This adds to the contrarian angle as the under will be the recommendation from historians but we go against that as well. The Bengals have gone over the total in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game including a 10-4 over mark under Dalton. 10* Over (101) Houston Texans/(102) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Monday Enforcer. Not many people will be high on the Chargers this season but we are not one of those. They will have one of the worst home field advantages because of their stadium but talent-wise, they are right up there. We made a future play on Los Angeles winning the AFC West which is a wide-open division. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so imagine if they can go a season without longterm major injuries. Denver is nothing special with a pedestrian offense including a weak offensive line and questions at quarterback. Last season, the Broncos ranked 27th total offense at 323.1 ypg, 21st in passing at 230.0 ypg, 27th in rushing at 92.8 ypg and 22nd in scoring with 20.8 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense is losing ground. DeMarcus Ware retired, Shane Ray will not be back until at least Week Eight, T.J. Ward was released and Shaq Barrett is still working his way back from an injured hip. These teams are much more equal now. The same two systems apply to the Chargers here. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (481) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Monday Star Attraction. Both Minnesota and New Orleans missed the playoffs last season and both are projected to make runs at the postseason this year. The Vikings made the playoff two years ago thanks to a big run at the end of the season but last year was a different story as after a 5-0 start, Minnesota closed the season by winning just three of its last 11 games. There are issues on offense, especially with the offensive line, so getting the running game going will be difficult and Sam Bradford cannot win a game on his own. The Saints are an improved team which will be out to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14. The offense took a hit with the loss of Brandin Cooks but they will be just fine. One major improvement from this team is the defense as the secondary is better with the drafting of Marshon Lattimore and the linebackers will be improved by the drafting of Alex Anzalone, signing A.J. Klein in free agency and hiring Mike Nolan to coach the group. Two excellent situations fall onto the Saints side. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (479) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our Week One NFL Game of the Week. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. We have systems in place that have been very profitable in the first week and the Jaguars/Texans game falls into one of those which we can call the regression perception system. Houston is again expected to make a run at the AFC South title thanks to its potent defense but the offense remains a huge concern going into the season coming off a 9-7 season. Jacksonville went 3-13 last season and is coming off a preseason that was widely regarded as horrible in all aspects. The Jaguars have a season win total of 6.5 games so things are expected to be better but the public is not buying it this week against Houston as the Texans are overvalued yet the public is making the Texans the second highest home consensus on the board. This is only part of the Jaguars value as the system in place backs it up. We play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2004 including 12-3 ATS (80 percent) since 2013. 10* (457) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for out Week One Enforcer. The Raiders were one of the pleasant surprises last season as they won 12 games but were unable to make a playoff run after quarterback Derek Carr went down. It was a special season and many are picking the Raiders as a sleeper Super Bowl team but they are missing the fact that they won five games by a field goal or less and in overtime and eight games by one possession or less so things could have been a lot different. Oakland now has a healthy Carr back and the signing of Marshawn Lynch should help the running game but this is the classic example of a team that is ripe for regression and a lot of that is based on the number of close wins from last season. Tennessee is a trendy pick to win the AFC South following a 9-7 season from last year and just missing the playoffs. The Titans have missed the playoffs the last eight seasons but now have the team on both sides to make a move. This is a rematch from last season where Oakland came here in Week Three and won 17-10 but this is a different Tennessee team playing for revenge in what turned out to be a heated game. Marcus Mariota was in a funk, Rishard Matthews was still struggling to get comfortable in the offense, and what many people viewed as the team's top two options in the passing game in Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker did not play. Now, Eric Decker, a comfortable and reliable Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker, Taywan Taylor, and Corey Davis give Mariota multiple options. There is also a great situation the Titans fall into based on regression possibilities as we play against Week One road underdogs that won eight or more games last season and had a better record than their opponent. This situation is 35-10-3 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2004. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Week One Wiseguy Wipeout. Atlanta enters a new season following the worst implosion in Super Bowl history as it blew a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter and eventually lost in overtime. Despite the close margin in the end, the Falcons were outgained by the Patriots by 202 yards so they were fortunate to be in that position to begin with. Many will be calling Atlanta to come out with a chip on its shoulder but these situations are tough to bounce back from despite the fact six months have passed and now we have a situation we have not seen before based on the historic collapse. One thing we do know is that teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not fared well out of the gate. Super Bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-17 ATS over the last 20 games. Now the Falcons are laying a touchdown on the road which is horrible situation to begin with. The Bears are coming off a 3-13 season and are projected for 5.5 wins this season so it looks to be another long season in Chicago. They posted their lowest win total in a non-strike year since the 1973 team went 3-11 and most losses since 1969 so not many will be backing this team. Offensively, Mike Glennon gets the call at quarterback and he a solid running game behind him led by Jordan Howard who finished second to Ezekiel Elliott with 1,313 yards rushing. For the Bears to keep things close here and throughout the season, the defense must play well and that is more than possible. The Bears believe they have the makings of a strong front seven if they stay healthy, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. Since 2001, home underdogs of seven or more points in Week One are 5-1 ATS. 10* (456) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Week One Ultimate Underdog. This play goes along the same lines as the regression perception system but with a couple tweaks that makes it more of a public fade system. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. The Jets are projected to win 3.5 games based on the Vegas number and there have been voices saying a winless season is not out of the question. It is clearly a rebuilding season for New York and will be an underdog in every game this season but we must consider what kind of underdog it is going to be based on the spot. Buffalo is projected to win three more games than the Jets but that could be aggressive as the Bills seem to be playing for the future as well by trading some of the better players and loading up on draft picks. At this stage, they cannot be laying a number this big to anyone and even more so with their top two quarterbacks still in concussion protocol early in the week. The situation in play here is we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 35-8-2 (81.4 percent) since 2003 including 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2013. We see some crazy things in the opening week of the NFL season and a Jets win would be right up there. 10* (453) New York Jets

The Patriots closed last season by winning their last 10 games, covering the last eight games, including an improbable Super Bowl comeback over Atlanta where they trailed 28-3 before winning in overtime. New England is the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again this season at +385 as of four days before their season opener. Everyone has likely heard of the Super Bowl hangover but it does not pertain to the first week of the next season. Since the NFL began its current format for the Kickoff Opener with the winners of the previous Super Bowl playing host to the first game of the season, defending champions are 11-1 in those games (not counting Baltimore in 2013 since its game was moved to the road because of an Orioles scheduling conflict). The defending home team went 8-3-1 ATS. Going back further prior to the Thursday Kickoff Opener, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years including cover wins the last three seasons. Kansas is coming off another successful season where it went 12-4, its second straight double-digit win campaign but it stumbled in the playoffs yet again, losing to the Steelers at home. This is a big number the Chiefs are getting here and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Kansas City getting a touchdown or more. The Chiefs won their last six road games last season but they are heading to an environment which will be tough to compete in and the Patriots have dominated in these situations. They are 13-3-3 ATS at home the last two seasons while going 18-7-2 against conference opponents over that same stretch. 10* (452) New England Patriots

Over the last 12 editions of the Super Bowl, only one has surpassed the total that we are dealing with this year as Super Bowl XLVII between Baltimore and San Francisco saw 65 points scored. Of the first 50 Super Bowls, only eight have had 60 total points scored so history shows that we should be in for a lower scoring game than what the over/under is telling us. While history can tell us a lot, it cannot always predict the future and this number is big for a reason despite the Patriots brining in the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. As a comparison, the over/under for the NFC Championship Game between the Falcons and Packers closed at 59.5. both New England and Green Bay have very potent offenses so those totals were set based on the defenses and clearly the linesmakers do not trust the Patriots top ranked unit. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. No one has been able to stop the Falcons for the most part and with the Atlanta defense not very good to begin with, the Patriots will be able to move the ball as well. As long as we can avoid settling for redzone field goals, this could turn into a very high scoring Super Bowl. 10* Over (101) New England Patriots/(102) Atlanta Falcons

This is the seventh time that the top ranked scoring offense has faced off against the top ranked scoring defense in the Super Bowl. In the previous six matchups, the top ranked defense has come away the winner but the situation is different this season based on what the defense has faced. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. Atlanta will have success on offense as the balance is there to be effective and keep New England off balance. The difference should come down to the Falcons defense trying and stop the Patriots offense and while that likely will not happen, it will be slowed down enough. The rankings of the Atlanta defense are not very good but those rankings are skewed to a degree. Because of the firepower of the offense, opposing teams have had to try and play catch-up more often than not which leads to garbage points and garbage yards. To prove this, the Falcons have led at the half in 13 of their 18 games including the last six. Getting off to another quick start will again put them in great position to win their first ever Super Bowl. 10* (102) Atlanta Falcons