Sports Picks & Predictions

Washington has been very inconsistent this season as it comes in 3-5 but we saw a very similar first half a season ago when it started 3-6 only to go on and win its final seven games of the regular season to win the division and make it into the playoffs. Will we see another strong second half from the Redskins this season? I don't think so. Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning in overtime last week and that can be a big momentum boost but the Redskins have been unable to win consecutive games this season, following up their first two wins with blowout road losses. Granted, they are facing a team with a losing record this time around but until their defense gets right, they will not be putting together too many winning streak this year. The Washington defense is ranked 30th overall and 31st in scoring and while the Vikings offense is 27th overall, they have scored 23 or more points in six of their eight games. Minnesota is coming off a last second loss against Dallas as the Cowboys were able to make up for their last second loss the previous week in Detroit. The Vikings fell to 1-7 and have dropped four straight games while not winning a single game on American soil. I think that comes to an end here as we are catching a line that is drawing bettors to the side of the short road favorite, similar to what we saw last week in Miami. The Vikings offense as mentioned has been able to score a good amount of points in the majority of their games and with Christian Ponder coming off his two best games of the season and Adrian Peterson coming off a season high 140 yards rushing, this offense can have a lot of success against the weak Redskins defense. The Vikings defense is not much better but they had a strong effort last week in Dallas as by holding the Cowboys to only 36 rushing yards, the Vikings dropped their defensive average against the rush by almost 10 ypg and improved their ranking form 21st to 12th in the NFL. Minnesota has lost three games in the final minute this season so it has played better than its record indicates and I give it a significant edge in playing this game at home on a short week. 10* (108) Minnesota Vikings

The Bears come in off their bye week in search of some answers following losses in three of their last four games. Those answers mostly come from the defense that has allowed an average of 29.4 ppg on the season and that is a big part why Chicago has gone over the total in six of its seven games on the season. And that is significant in us getting a very favorable total tonight as it is the highest over/under that the Bears have seen all season long. I feel we are getting a lot of value in it and it is even more considering it is the highest total this series has had in a while and one that has gone under the total in 10 of the last 11 meetings. It is no secret that the Green bay offense is hitting on all cylinders right now after last week in Minnesota where it scored on every possession with the exception of running out the drive before halftime and taking a knee at the end of the game. That game easily eclipsed the total and the number is now higher and it is the second highest over/under posted in a Packers game this season. The previous three Green Bay games stayed under the total thanks to the defense that allowed a total of just 39 combined points and it should have success again tonight against the Bears offense without quarterback Jay Cutler. Bettors won with the over in last night's primetime game and they will surely be betting the over again tonight which has caused the number to move up from its opening. The under is 15-4 in Chicago's last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game while the under is 4-1 in its last five games after allowing 30 or more points last game. Meanwhile, the under is 6-0 in the Packers last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Chicago has a league-wide situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in November games. This situation is 26-6 (81.2 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (423) Chicago Bears/(424) Green Bay Packers

It has certainly been a difficult season for the Steelers that few saw coming. Pittsburgh opened up with a home loss against Tennessee and then went on to lose three more after that for its worst start since beginning 1-3 in 2006, the final season for head coach Bill Cowher. The Steelers won two straight after that and when it looked like things were finally turning around, they went into Oakland last week, fell behind 21-3 at halftime and could not recover. While they are 2-5, they are not as bad as that record indicates as they are outgaining opponents by close to 20 ypg but the problem has been turnovers. They are -9 in turnover margin mostly due to a defense that has only five takeaways and three of those took place last week against the Raiders. The offense has been below average but the Pittsburgh defense is still a force as it is ranked fourth in the NFL. Obviously, taking care of the ball is a must here. The Patriots meanwhile are 6-2 but they are not a very good 6-2. they have been outgained in five of those eight games and are getting outgained by an average of 16.3 ypg so the record and stats posted are the exact opposite of the Steelers. Yes, New England is 4-0 at home but it easily could have lost three of those games had things not gone their way and that is in reference to turnovers as the Patriots are +7 in turnover margin at home. These things have a way of balancing themselves out, especially with teams that are not as good as they appear to be. The offense behind Tom Brady has been below average this season despite a lot of points scored the last three games and we will see the unit struggle against this tough Steelers defense. The Steelers have been great in these spots as they are a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number in their last eight games as underdogs when facing an opponent with a winning percent below .800 and coming off a win. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (419) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Rams put everything they had into their game against Seattle on Monday night only to fall just short as a last minute game-winning touchdown try went amiss. Picking up the pieces from that defeat is going to be extremely difficult for St. Louis and playing on a short week does not help matters. The defense played one of its best games of the season against the Seahawks and it was actually the best of the season as far as yards go as the Rams allowed just 135 total yards. Overall, they outgained Seattle by 204 total yards but it still resulted in a second straight loss. Quarterback Kellen Clemens made his first start since replacing Sam Bradford and the results were not good as he went just 15-31 for 158 yards and two picks. While the Seattle defense is one of the best in the NFL, Tennessee's defense is no slouch. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those were without quarterback Jake Locker. He returned against San Francisco in their last game and while it resulted in a loss by 14 points, the titans won the yardage battle by 19 yards and Locker did not play that poorly. Tennessee lost the turnover battle 2-0 and one of those resulted in a touchdown when the 49ers recovered a fumble in the endzone. The three-game losing streak certainly stings but it has been against teams that are a combined 21-3 so it is not surprising. The best news is that the Titans are coming off a bye week so they will be more than energized to get back to their winning ways when they started the season 3-1. I'm normally not one to be laying points on the road but this situation sets up perfectly for it. The Rams defensive effort was outstanding against the Seahawks as mentioned but coming back from that will be too touch as they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Titans meanwhile are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a spread loss and they fall into a great situation where we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (407) Tennessee Titans

We played against the Jets last week as they went into Cincinnati and got steamrolled by the Bengals. It was the perfect letdown opportunity involving New York as it was coming off a huge overtime victory over rival New England the previous week and it was clear that the Jets were still feeling the hangover as they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter and could not recover. Not the Jets are back home where they are 3-1 on the season and in full bounce back mode and that is something they have been successful at all season. New York has followed up its previous three losses with wins and covers and while most are not giving it a chance against the high-flying Saints, I am fully behind the Jets as they should be able to rebound at home again. The Saints should be 7-0 right now but poor clock management against Patriots led to a last second loss. They bye week came at a perfect time for them as they were able to move away from that and bounced back as expected with a big win over Buffalo last week. New Orleans now hits the road again for the third time in four games and this is clearly a different team on the highway. The Saints barely got by Tampa Bay in their first road game of the season as they won by only two points and then in the last two roadies, they were outgained in both Chicago and New England. There is no choice for the linesmakers to list the Saints as the road favorites here but prior to last week, this line was -3.5 so it shows how one week can change the public perception of not just one, but both teams. The effort from the Jets last week was horrific and the players heard about it so you know this week we will see a much better effort this time around. We have seen success in the past as the Jets are 4-0 straight up and ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against opponents that are coming off a win. New York also falls into a great league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (406) New York Jets

We won with Cincinnati this past Sunday as it destroyed the Jets which were coming off that big overtime win over New England the previous Sunday. The Bengals have now won four straight games to move to 6-2 overall and they have a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. The win over the Jets improved Cincinnati to 4-0 at home so it is just 2-2 on the road and both of those victories came by just three points each including one in overtime at Buffalo. The offense is clicking right now as the Bengals have averaged 34.3 ppg over their last three games while putting up 435.3 ypg. That makes this week a challenge. Miami started the season 3-0 but it has lost its last four games and the one this past week was probably the most disappointing as the Dolphin built a 17-3 lead only to allow the final 24 points of the game. They are under .500 for the first time and they will also be looking to get back to .500 at home where they are 1-2 with losses against Baltimore and Buffalo by a combined five points. Miami is trending in the right direction at least as it was outgained in each of its first five games but has won the yardage battle the last two games albeit by just 74 yards combined. Still, this is a desperate team in need of a victory and I like the fact we have seen the last two Thursday wins go to the road favorite and that is where the public action is going to be again this week. What has really hurt Miami has been turnovers as they have 10 over the last four games while having just four takeaways. Conversely, the Bengals have only given it away four times during its winning streak so it is easy to figure out why these teams have gone in opposite directions. Miami falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 59-28 (67.8 percent) since 1983. The Dolphins have covered four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati meanwhile is 0-2 ATS this season as a road favorite and the winning streak comes to an end this Thursday. 10* (304) Miami Dolphins

We held off on this game to see where the markets would be moving based on the Rams situation at quarterback and surprisingly, this total has not moved. With Sam Bradford out for the season, St. Louis turns to Kellen Clemens who has thrown a total of seven passes the last two years so he is not going to be expected to take this offense over, especially against one of the best defenses in he NFL. Through seven games, the Seahawks' 23 sacks are tied for fourth in the league. The Rams total offense is ranked 30th in the NFL but despite that, they have gone over the total in four straight games and they are 6-1 to the over on the season. A lot of that has to do with a porous defense that has allowed 30 or more points four times and while it has underachieved most of the season, I expect the defense to step up tonight on its home field. Seattle comes in with a 6-1 record as it has won two straight games since suffering its first loss at Indianapolis. The Seahawks opened the season with two straight unders but they have gone over the total in four of their last five games and that again is keeping this number higher than it should be. This is actually the second highest number that Seattle has seen in its past six games as linesmakers need to keep it high because of the expected action on the over. The Seahawks are ranked 10th in the NFL in total offense and that is largely based on they are first in rushing offense and even more importantly, they are first in rushing attempts. They will face a Rams rushing defense that is ranked 30th in the league and have been gashed for 763 yards over the last five games. Marshawn Lynch has posted three consecutive 100-yard games against the Rams, including two last year in which he averaged 5.74 ypc on 38 attempts. We will see another heavy dose of him for sure tonight. We all know Russell Wilson can take the game over himself as well but the Rams have given him problems. In two games against the Rams in 2012, Wilson had the worst QBR (14.4) of his career in the first meeting in St. Louis and then was hammered for six sacks in the second meeting. Seattle does have some issues along the offensive line so the pressure should continue. Both meetings last season stayed below the total and those closing numbers were lower than what we have tonight. 10* Under (231) Seattle Seahawks/(232) St. Louis Rams

The nightmare season continues for the Vikings as the Josh Freeman experiment ended rather abruptly as he is done after one start due to a concussion. They lost in New York last Monday night and he certainly didn't do much to help as he passed for only 190 yards while the offense generated just 206 total yards. The adage goes teams are not as bad as they look the previous week and we are expecting that to hold true here with Christian Ponder back at quarterback. The Packers have been one of the worst pass rushing teams in the league this year, and although the Vikings' offensive line is one of the most inconsistent in the NFL, things are shaping up for Ponder to make the most of his return to the starting lineup. This is just Minnesota's third home game of the season and what better spotlight to turn things around than on Sunday night primetime against the hated Packers. Green Bay has won and covered three straight games which is also playing into this inflated line it is laying here. The Packers do look to be clicking once again as they have outgained each of their last five opponents but this is not going to be an easy environment come Sunday night to continue their recent dominance. The offense has not missed a beat despite numerous injuries but now Green Bay has to deal with another one as tight end Jermichael Finley is out after a severe neck injury last week so the depth at tight end is next to nothing. Aaron Rodgers has had his struggles against the Vikings and while the pass rush for Minnesota has not been the same, the home crowd could lift it up here. The wild card here could be a simple one and that is to get Adrian Peterson going as he has not lived up to expectations from last season. Facing the Packers could break him out of his slump though. In the two games these teams played in the regular season last year, Peterson ran for a total of 409 yards and two touchdowns. He was slowed down in the playoff game with just 99 yards but the Vikings had to start Joe Webb in that game so the Packers were able to key on Peterson. Here we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (230) Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Patriots following a controversial penalty call but nonetheless, it puts them in a tough spot this week. As has been the case all season with New York, it has followed up its wins with a loss next time out and I don't see how this is going to be any different. The best example was the win prior to this last one when the Jets went into Atlanta on Monday night and defeated the Falcons only to come home the following week and lay an egg against the Steelers. The victory over the Patriots was arguably an even bigger one and the only difference now is that the Jets have to go on the road which makes it even tougher. In games at New England and Atlanta, New York was getting double-digits and this week, it is getting less than a touchdown in most places so I see a lot of value on the Bengals here. Cincinnati is coming off two dramatic road wins over the last two weeks to take a two-game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and Cleveland. This is normally a fade spot against teams in college but it tends to be different in the NFL in a lot of cases. Because those games were on the road and now the Bengals travel home, I feel this is a big momentum boost and it is accentuated even more because their next two games are on the road including a game at Miami this coming Thursday. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games while going a perfect 3-0 at home both straight up and against the number and has won five straight games at home dating back to last season. The defense has led the way as overall, Cincinnati is seventh in scoring and ninth in total defense. But it will be up to the offense to be able to pull away in this one which I think is a definite. The one thing that the Bengals can limit here is the Jets pass rush ability. Pro Football Focus rates the Bengals offensive line second in the league in pass-blocking efficiency and that is a major challenge to a defense that relies heavily on its pass rush to stop its opponents' passing game. The Bengals fall into an awesome situation as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1983 including going 7-1 ATS over the last five seasons. 10* (222) Cincinnati Bengals

The Lions are coming off a crushing defeat last week as they lost to Cincinnati on a field goal as time expired. The Lions have been able to rebound in their other losses this season and I am expecting the same again this week. Detroit has its bye next week prior to two road games at Chicago and at Pittsburgh so the ultimate goal right now is to go into the week with a win in order to keep pace with Green Bay. That was the Lions first home loss of the season and this is the first opportunity that they have had consecutive games at home. The offense has been outstanding all season with the lone exception being the game at Green Bay in which Calvin Johnson was out which shows how big his presence is. They have been able to feed off big offensive games as the Lions are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas is coming off a big win at Philadelphia to take over first place in the NFC East and while this is Detroit's first back-to-back home set of the season, this is the Cowboys first back-to-back road set of the year. The last time Dallas won a road game with a road game to follow was the start of last season when it won against the Giants on opening week only to get thumped in Seattle the next week. Making matters even more difficult is the fact that the two wins during this two-game streak were both against divisional foes. The Cowboys are now 6-1 ATS his season which is the best spread record in the league and being a public team, this will be ridden out. While Dallas is third in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense, those rankings drop to 13th in total offense and 29th in total defense. That last ranking will be the downfall here. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and that also falls into a league-wide situation favoring the Lions. We play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. This includes an 11-2 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Dallas is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a victory. 10* (212) Detroit Lions

We have seen the over come in the last four Thursday night games which can be considered an anomaly considering the typical history of Thursday night scores. More on that later. Carolina comes in riding a two-game winning streak as it easily defeated Minnesota and St. Louis the last two weeks to improve to 3-3 on the season. Additionally, both of those games surpassed the total but not by much and that is a streak the public will ride going into a primetime game. The Panthers had gone under in three of their first four games so high scoring games have not been typical and I believe that will be the case again here. The offense has erupted for 65 points the last two weeks but this is still a pretty average offense as Carolina is ranked 15th in scoring offense and just 23rd in total offense. The Buccaneers started the season with four straight games going under the total but like the Panthers, they have gone over in their last two games. The defense has allowed 31 points in each of those games although a touchdown last week came from the Flacons defense. Overall, this is not a bad stop unit as Tampa Bay is ranked 13th in both total defense and scoring defense and it is coming off a game where it allowed just 291 total yards against Atlanta. The offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and I do not expect it to get any better here. Carolina's defense continues to fly under the radar as it is ranked second in scoring defense and third in total defense and that is not good news for a Buccaneers offense that continues to struggle and is now without its best player in running back Doug Martin. Going back to the Thursday night scenario, games in this range have typically been low scoring as the under is 24-8 (75 percent) over the last five seasons when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. With the last four games surpassing the total, you know where the public action will be this Thursday and it should be best to wait as we will likely see this number go up before kickoff as has been the case the last two weeks. Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone over but last year should have been an under sweep as an overtime touchdown in the second meeting propelled that one to go over the number. Tampa Bay is 7-0 to the under in its last seven home games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half last game. Additionally, the under is 11-4 in the Panthers last 15 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (103) Carolina Panthers/(104) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is the second meeting of the season between the Patriots and Jets with New England winning the first game by a score of 13-10. Not a whole lot can be taken from that game as it was just the second game of the season and was played in horrible conditions. Still, the Jets lost and will be out for some payback and I feel they are in an excellent spot to avenge that defeat. They have been a very schizophrenic team this season and they lose badly at Tennessee then win in Atlanta the following week only to come back and put up a dud last week at home against the Steelers. I played against New York in that game as I felt it was a letdown spot and sure enough, it didn't show up. Now the tables are turned as the Jets want to bounce back from that and a victory here would put them just one game back in the AFC East. They have alternated wins and losses all season so it seems fitting that they will pull out a victory here. The Patriots are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Saints, handing New Orleans its first loss of the season. New England was staring at a loss right in the face but a fantastic last minute drive set up the game winning touchdown with just five seconds remaining to move the Patriots to 5-1 on the season. This may not be considered a letdown situation from that win because the Patriots and Jets are hated rivals so New England is surely not looking past New York. However, because of the win last week and the ugly Jets loss, we are getting a fantastic line. New England is not the same team from years past and the Jets are better than what most expected yet we are seeing a very inflated line that the public is still going to ride. Turnovers have been the big problem for the Jets and that was the case in the first meeting as they lost the turnover battle 4-0 so it is near impossible to win a game with that disadvantage although they nearly did. Those miscues have put the defense in some tough spots but they are still ranked fourth overall and have allowed more than 328 total yards only once. On the other side, quarterback Geno Smith has improved immensely since that first meeting and the Patriots defense continues to get banged up and will be without three key starters here. The fall into a great situation as we play on home underdogs that are coming off a loss that average more yards per pass attempt than their opponent does which is coming off a win. This situation is 32-13-2 ATS (71.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (398) New York Jets

Jacksonville finally came away with a cover last week as it stayed within the massive number at Denver to move to 1-5 ATS on the season. Normally that would mean possibly laying off the following week but that is not going to be the case here as there is still plenty of value in this number that is severely inflated yet again. The Jaguars have looked a lot better the last couple weeks. Despite losing to the Rams, they outgained them and they are just -33 total yards the last two weeks after being -652 total yards in their first four games. They are also home for just the second time in five weeks as four of their last five games were on the road and while they have been outscored 65-5 in their two home games, those came against the Chiefs and Colts and we cannot be comparing the Chargers to those two teams. Yes, San Diego just defeated the Colts but that means little this week. Indianapolis was coming off a big home win over Seattle while the Chargers were out to bounceback from their last against the Raiders the previous week. Mission accomplished. Now San Diego heads back on the road on a short week in an early game to face the worst team in football and is laying over a touchdown. Good luck with that one. To their credit, the Chargers have exceeded expectations already as not many saw even an average season this year but they are 3-3 and have played relatively well on offense over the last few weeks. Still, this is the far from ideal spot to be in and with a bye coming up, walking out of here with just a small victory is all they can hope for. The Chargers have numerous angles going against them. We play on teams after the first month of the season with a winning percentage of less than .250 going up against teams coming off a win over a team with a winning record. This situation is 57-37-2 ATS (61.6 percent) since 2002 and if the opponent is playing on a short week, the situation is 15-4 ATS (78.9 percent). Going from a home underdog to a road favorite is very rare in this league and does not suit many teams very well. That is certainly the case with San Diego as it is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when going from an underdog to a favorite the next week no matter the venue. Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is good of a spot as any for Jacksonville to grab its first outright win of the season. 10* (400) Jacksonville Jaguars

Seattle bounced back with a home victory over Tennessee following its first loss of the season the previous week at Indianapolis. The Seahawks only won by seven points but it was still a dominating performance as they outgained the Texans by 181 total yards and the only touchdown allowed came by the special teams as Tennessee returned a botched field goal for a touchdown. It was a rare non-cover for Seattle at home and now it hits the road where things have not been as successful. The Seahawks are just 5-5-1 ATS on the road under quarterback Russell Wilson including 2-4-1 ATS as road favorites. This is the first road divisional game of the season and last year, Seattle lost all three of those games. Arizona hung around for three and a half quarters last week against the 49ers as it was down by just two points before San Francisco scored the final 10 points of the game to pull away for the cover. The Cardinals actually outgained the 49ers which was the fourth time this season that they have outgained their opponent. They are looking to bounce back from that effort in San Francisco but they are also looking for some payback here after the Seahawks showed no mercy in a 58-0 thumping in Seattle in the second meeting last season. Arizona has played on Thursday night twice before but both of those games were on the road making this their first home appearance which will give it a big home edge. Seahawks defensive end Chris Clemons, who returned from ACL surgery three weeks ago after leading the team in sacks last year, may miss Thursday's game in Arizona after hyper-extending his elbow Sunday against the Titans. If the Seahawks had a usual six-day turnaround, Clemons might have been ready to play Seattle's next game, head coach Pete Carroll said, but it's doubtful with the Cards game on Thursday. That is a huge loss for the defense. The Seahawks are third in both overall and scoring defense but the tow highest point totals allowed have come in their last two road games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites against opponents that are coming off a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Don't be surprised to see the Cardinals take this one straight up but even a loss should keep them inside this inflated number. 10* (304) Arizona Cardinals

The Colts are off to a 4-1 start this season and they are now once again perceived as a public team in the betting markets. They come in following three straight wins including a big road victory at San Francisco and last week, they knocked Seattle from the rank of the unbeatens. With a home game against Denver next week, this presents the perfect sandwich spot to go against the Colts. Indianapolis is actually in the same position as San Diego was in last week as the Chargers were coming off a win as a home underdog against the Cowboys and now finds themselves as a road favorite. Teams in this situation have had a tough time in this reversal situation over the years. Additionally, while this is just the third road game of the season for the Colts, it is the third in the last four weeks including two separate west coast trip which makes it an even tougher travel situation. San Diego is now 2-3 on the season following a loss at Oakland last week despite the fact it outgained the Raiders by 128 total yards. This is just the third home game of the season for the Chargers as they lost to Houston, a game they should have won as they blew a 21-point lead, and then defeated the Cowboys. This is a really big game for the Chargers as they likely are already out of the divisional race with Denver and Kansas City but getting to 3-3 puts them right in the mix in the Wild Card race. The Chargers offense has been playing very well this season under the new coaching staff and system as they have scored touchdowns on 26.4 percent of their drives which is fourth in the NFL. San Diego's per-drive production is a direct result of its revitalized passing game, with quarterback Philip Rivers currently ranking sixth in the league in passing. The Colts are ranked sixth in the league in passing defense but they have played against only one quarterback that is ranked in the top 20 and that is a huge difference. Not counting the Jaguars game, which we cannot do in the case for most opponents that have gone against them, the Colts have been outgained in two of their other four games and are -72 yards in those four games combined. Next week's game against the Broncos cannot be overlooked for the Colts as it will mark Peyton Manning's much-anticipated return to Lucas Oil Stadium and the biggest game of the season to date for Indianapolis. San Diego has covered five straight games following a loss and it will add to that run again tonight. 10* (230) San Diego Chargers

We played against the Patriots last Sunday and while it was a spot of going against them since they were undefeated, it was also a spot on playing Cincinnati which was coming off a loss at Cleveland the previous week. This week we have a very similar scenario in our favor only it actually favors New England. The Patriots head home after suffering that first defeat where they are 2-0 on the season but to be fair, they really have not been tested. Playing the Jets and Buccaneers is not the same as playing the Saints but they have a ton of motivation on their side. As does quarterback Tom Brady who is steaming after not putting up a touchdown last week, thus snapping his 52-game streak with at least one touchdown pass. Ironically, he was chasing Drew Brees who has 54 straight games with a touchdown pass. It was also only the fourth time since 2001 (when Brady took over in New England) that the Patriots had been held to six points or less. How did they do the previous three times? They won 44-13, 31-10 and 40-7 so its safe to say he bounces back pretty well. Additionally, the Patriots' offense should improve with the probability of Rob Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley joining Danny Amendola in the lineup. New Orleans is now 5-0 following its win at Chicago last week as it seems to have put last year's disaster behind them. Many figured there would be a turnaround for the Saints so it is not a huge surprise they are off to a 5-0 start especially considering they have played the 26th ranked schedule in the NFL and I think even that isn't low enough. This is the second straight road game for New Orleans and its second straight road game on grass which may not seem huge but considering how strong of a team they are indoors, it does in fact make a difference. While the offense is up to its old tricks, it is the defense that has made the most progress, going from being ranked dead last in total defense last year to being ranked 11th this season. The Saints are 0-3 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games played on grass fields. The Patriots defense has been good enough to carry the offense that has yet to find its stride due to a depleted receiving corps. They are ranked second in points allowed this season so they do have the ability to slow down the Saints to a degree. Chicago did a very good job as they held them to 357 yards and forced four field goals and that is the gameplan to slow down the offense as much as possible. Favorites are now 13-4 ATS in New Orleans's last 17 games. 10* (226) New England Patriots

The Texans have lost three straight games to fall to 2-3 on the season and the natives are getting restless. After making it into the Divisional Playoff Round in each of the last two seasons, Houston once again came into the season with high expectations. Three straight losses and people are calling for quarterback Matt Schaub to be benched and head coach Gary Kubiak to be fired. I think it is a little premature for this as Houston is just two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Yes, Schaub has tossed a pick six in a record four straight games but those things happen and not all were his fault to begin with. The interesting part is that the Texans have outgained all five of their opponents despite the losing record and they are currently sitting at seventh in total offense and first in total defense. Those rankings tell me that this is a very strong team that is getting scrutiny for no reason just yet. The Rams snapped their three-game losing streak last week as they took out the hapless Jaguars at home by 14 points to improve to a similar 2-3. It was a much needed victory as a loss their could have sent the season into a complete downward spiral but now St. Louis comes in with some momentum and confidence but I think it will be short lived. The Rams were actually outgained by the Jaguars last week and have been outgained in four of their five games with the only exception being Atlanta where they outgained the Falcons by 28 total yards thanks to a late garbage score. Even that seven-point loss is looking worse after the struggles that Atlanta is going through. Prior to the Jacksonville game, the Rams defense had allowed 31, 31 and 34 points in their previous three games ad I expect another poor effort here. St. Louis is giving up an average of 169 yards per game on the ground during its last three games and on the season, it has allowed 11 touchdown passes while just picking three passes and has allowed an 7.4 ypa average. The Rams offense has not been much better as it is ranked 29th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense and facing this defense will be a challenge. In particular, the injury-plagued Rams offensive line figures to have problems with the active Houston front seven. The Texans are first in passing defense and third in defensive ypa average and while the rushing defense has struggled at times, the Rams pose no threat as it is close to the bottom in all rushing categories. The Texans are 0-5 ATS which is a streak I like going against as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. I expect the Texans to easily break that skid here. 10* (214) Houston Texans

The Steelers are winless and are looking at missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season for the first time ever under head coach Mike Tomlin. They are 0-4 following their loss in London against the Vikings so the bye week could not have come at a better time. Although extremely rare, making the playoffs at 0-4 has been done in the past so Pittsburgh is looking at making a run to see what happens. And it will mean starting here this Sunday in New York as it needs to put together a complete game. The Steelers still possess a top ten defense but it is one that has not created a turnover yet this season and that is a rarity for this stop unit. On the opposite side, the offense has 11 turnovers so it is safe to say that a team with a -11 turnover margin differential will not be seeing the postseason. The thing is that Pittsburgh is only two games out of first place in the AFC North so no team is running away with this division. The Jets are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Falcons on Monday night and now have a short week to get ready for a team that has had two weeks off. That is not an easy spot to begin with. The Jets surprised some people with a 2-1 start but after getting throttled at Tennessee, everyone was on their case once again. Now off a big win, people are back on the bandwagon and that is how this league works as opinions change from week to week. Hats off to quarterback Geno Smith who put together that game winning drive which culminated the best game of his young career as he put up a 147.7 passer rating. Now it is time to face a real defense as the first five opponents are not on the same lever as the Steelers defense. On top of that, under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 16-2 against rookie quarterbacks so giving him two weeks to prepare is only icing on the cake. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has turned the ball over six times in his last two games, but now has a legitimate running back with the return of rookie Le'Veon Bell, who scored the Steelers' only two rushing touchdowns on the season during his NFL debut against the Vikings. The Steelers are also part of an incredible situation backing winless teams. Underdogs that are at least 0-4 and are coming off a bye are 21-4 ATS the last 25 instances with two of those four defeats missing by just a point. To make matters even more desperate for the Steelers, they went 0-4 in the preseason for they are 0-8 ATS and SU which they finally break this week. 10* (215) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Giants incredibly horrible start to the season continued last week as they lost to the Eagles to fall to 0-5 straight up and against the number. There are problems all over the place. Quarterback Eli Manning is throwing too many picks and getting sacked too many times, the running game is non-existent and the defense has not been able to stop anyone. At some point this season, barring an incredible turnaround, this team will be unbettable and while many are thinking that now sitting at 0-5 ATS, they were still overrated but now we can finally get the chance to buy them low. Backing teams on 0-5 ATS runs may seem suicidal but in fact, it is a very strong situation as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. The Bears opened the season with a 3-0 record and they were the early talk of the NFL but they have dropped their last two games since then and are once again feeling the heat. They got away with a win against Cincinnati as they had to rally late and the other two wins came against Pittsburgh and Minnesota and the only reason one of those teams has a victory is because they had to play each other in London two weeks ago. Chicago is getting outgained on the season and while it isn't by much, it proves how it has been far from dominating. The favorite has come through in each of the last two Thursday night games and with the Giants sitting at 0-5, the consensus is on the chalk again this week and at a very inflated number. Since coming to Chicago, Quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. New York has not dropped its first six games since going 0-9 back in 1976 and this is a record this team does not want to approach. It is imperative to get the running game going and while they have not been able to do it thus far, this could be the game it comes out. Brandon Jacobs will be starting the game with David Wilson out but the Bears defensive line is extremely thin with Henry Melton and Nate Collins out and Stephen Paea still hurting. The Giants defense needs to get pressure on Cutler to try and create turnovers, something Cutler is known to do. The Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home and while the nightmare season could continue, we are getting a healthy dose of points that will at least give them their first cover of the season. 10* (101) New York Giants

***THIS IS NOT A PLAY ON ATLANTA ATS***

This a is two-team teaser on Atlanta and the Over. Tease the spread down as well as tease the total down. I typically do not play a lot of teasers but this one sets up well on Monday night. The Falcons are 1-3 and in desperate need of a victory as they currently trail the undefeated Saints by three and a half games plus they already have a loss to New Orleans. Atlanta has dropped its last two games at Miami and at home against New England despite outgaining both opponents. The Falcons are two games below .500 for the first time in the Matt Ryan era and mired in their first losing streak since 2009 going into Monday night so the question remains if last year was a fluke or if they are just having bad luck. I believe it is the latter. The Jets are 2-2 and while they could be sitting at 3-1, they could also be sitting at 1-3. they have outgained every opponent which is a plus but the Patriots have been the only real opponent they have seen. The Jets may have lost some confidence after being beaten up and exposed by the Titans last week and they've already lost both of their road games. Turnovers have really hurt New York as it is 29th in the NFL in scoring offense but 13th in total offense so they are moving the ball well but unable to convert. Facing a banged up Falcons defense could be the cure and while the Jets have dealt with plenty of injuries to their receivers, though they should be bolstered this week by the return of Stephen Hill from a concussion. Falcons defensive end Kroy Biermann is out for the year, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least half the season and linebacker Akeem Dent won't play either. Atlanta's offense is ranked 29th in the league in touchdown percentage from inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Last week's 30-23 loss to New England was especially troubling, as the Falcons produced only one touchdown with six red-zone possessions. In two of their three losses, Ryan had the ball inside the opponents' seven-yard line at the end of the game, with a chance to pull out a win. This I feel is what is getting us a lower than normal total and it is the lowest number that the Falcons have had all season so teasing it down more adds to the value. 10* Atlanta and the Over Two Team Tease

We played against the Bengals last week in Cleveland and they managed only two field goals in a 17-6 loss. Part of the reason for going against them was due to their big win the previous week over Green Bay and part of the reason for playing them this week is due to the loss suffered last Sunday. Cincinnati is sitting at 2-2 and could be 3-1 as it blew a late lead against the Bears in its season opener but it is still tied atop the AFC North with the Ravens and Browns. Making this home game even more important is the fact that four of Cincinnati's next five games are on the road so protecting the home field where it is 5-1 its last six games is imperative. The Bengals offense has struggled the last two games but I believe that changes here. The Patriots improved to 4-0 with their win over Atlanta last Sunday night and while we were on the wrong side of that one, it was one of those games that could have gone either way. The Patriots were outgained, albeit slightly, by Atlanta and they have been outgained in two of their four games thus far. New England has been solid as a road underdog over the last few years but considering where this line has gone from its opening is a signal as 89 percent of the ATS wagers in this game have gone on New England but the line has gone the opposite direction. Look for the Bengals to try and establish the run to set up the passing game. With Patriots defensive lineman Vince Wilfork out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, stopping Cincinnati's run game will be New England's biggest challenge. In his past six games at home, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 112 of 181 passes (61.9 percent) for 1,208 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 99.0. On the other side, the Patriots are still not sure if wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski will be active but either way, the Patriots will find it tough going on offense. The Cincinnati defense is ranked 13th in the league in total defense (334 ypg), 13th against the pass (235 ypg) and 10th against the run (99 ypg). We play against road underdogs or pickems after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (420) Cincinnati Bengals

We easily won with New Orleans on Monday night as it took care of Miami at home to improve to 4-0 on the season. While the Saints are making a move back into the elite status of the league and once again in the Super Bowl talk, this game does not set up well for them. Three of their wins have come at home while the only road victory was a tow-point win at lowly Tampa Bay and while they should have won that game by more, the fact is they didn't as playing on the road has not been easy for New Orleans. The Saints could be caught in a letdown/lookahead as coming off a primetime win over another undefeated team, they have a game at New England next week. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the first of back-to-back road games. Chicago suffered its first loss of the season last week in Detroit and while we were on the right side of that ticket, it did get a little too close for comfort. The Bears actually won the yardage battle but a lot of that came late as quarterback Jay Cutler finally woke up after three interceptions and trailing 40-16 but it was too little, too late. I expect a big bounceback from him and from the defense and with a game against the disappointing Giants on deck, there will be full focus this Sunday. Additionally, after playing two straight road games, a trip back home is what they need and they are 5-1 over their last six games coming off at least two straight road games. While the Saints offense gets the praise, it is the defense that has really done a remarkable job under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. They are sixth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense and while they shut down Atlanta in the opener, the last three games have not exactly been against offensive juggernauts. The Bears are third in the NFL in scoring offense and they have faced some strong defenses along the way. While the passing game is strong, Matt Forte has continued to be a big-play threat either running the ball or as a back out of the backfield and he is averaging 4.6 ypc. Surprisingly, the Chicago defense has been fairly tame as poor tackling Sunday plagued a defense that is ranked 20th with 384.0 ypg allowed and 26th with 28.5 ppg allowed. They have forced 14 turnovers which could be the key here. Chicago has an excellent situation on its side as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off three or more consecutive overs while averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (426) Chicago Bears

Two surprising teams square off on Thursday as the Bills and Browns both come into this game with a 2-2 record following big wins over playoff teams. Buffalo has adjusted well to the new coaching staff and schemes but while the two losses have been by a combined nine points, the two victories have been by just four points so feasibly, this team could be sitting at 1-3 or even 0-4 based on a couple plays. Both wins have come at home with a loss coming in their only road and hitting the highway has not been a good thing for the Bills as they are 2-14 over their last 16 road games. Playing on a short week after facing the defending Super Bowl champions does not help and even though we saw the 49ers win on the road last week, the home team has a significant edge on Thursday night games. Cleveland has won two straight games to get back to .500 and it has been the more dominating of the two teams. The Browns have outgained three of four opponents while getting outgained by Baltimore by just 37 yards. Overall, they are +32.3 in yardage margin, compared to the bills which are -49.7 ypg in margin. Playing at home on a short week only helps as does the fact Cleveland will be out for some revenge after losing here 53 weeks ago against Buffalo. A win would put the Browns over. 500 for the first time since the third game of the 2011 season and they have not won three of their first five games in 12 seasons. This is their only primetime game this season so they will be out making the most of it. While Brian Hoyer has gotten most of the publicity for the Browns, and it is well deserved, it is the defense that is making the difference. On Sunday, the Browns held the Bengals to just two field goals and 63 rushing yards in a 17-6 win. The previous week, the Browns limited Adrian Peterson to 88 yards and forced three key turnovers in a 31-27 victory. Overall, they have held three of four opponents to season lows in yardage. And the rushing defense has been as it best as through four games, the Browns are allowing just 2.9 ypc which is lowest in the NFL and they are the only defense not to give up a run of 15 yards or longer. Cleveland is capable of forcing opponents into a one-dimensional game plan that is difficult to sustain against a defense that is stout at the point of attack and explosive on the edges. Consequently, the Browns rank third in the NFL in total defense and eighth in points allowed. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games road after playing a game at home, losing those games by an average 17.5 ppg. Cleveland meanwhile is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a win against a divisional opponent as an underdog. 10* (302) Cleveland Browns

Seven teams were sitting at 3-0 heading into the weekend and two square off on Monday night as the Dolphins and Saints look to remain undefeated. Miami is the bigger surprise at 3-0 even though expectations were risen after it spent a ton of money in the offseason. Still, being undefeated is a shock to some considering the first two wins came on the road followed up by a win over the Falcons last week. Personally I am not sold on this team quite yet despite being eighth in the NFL in scoring defense and 11th in scoring offense. Why? Miami is just 22nd in total defense and 26th in total offense and it has been outgained in each of its three games. This includes being outrushed in all three games and being outpassed in two of those so the Dolphins can be considered the worst of the undefeated teams with the Bears close by. And the Bears are no longer in that group after Sunday. The fact that New Orleans is undefeated is not really a surprise despite it having a poor season a year ago. The absence of head coach Sean Payton was a huge part of it but with him being back and a new defense that has improved immensely, the Saints are looking to rise back into the elite category of the NFL. The schedule has been pretty tame with the Cardinals and Buccaneers being the last two victories and while the win over Atlanta is not looking as good as once thought, it is still a very good start. New Orleans is middle of the pack in scoring offense as some costly turnovers have taken place at the wrong time. The Saints are sixth in total offense and most of that production has taken place at home where they have been dominant once again. The defense has been the surprise though as they are fourth overall and fifth in scoring. Pressuring the quarterback has been paying off and will do so once again here as the Dolphins offensive line is in shambles. While New Orleans has only sacked opposing quarterbacks eight times, the Saints have hit them 11 times and hurried them another 39 times. As brought up in the Seattle analysis from Sunday, the fact that Miami is 3-0 against the number this season actually brings up an interesting contrarian angle. Since 2004, 32 teams have opened the season a perfect 3-0 ATS but rarely do they make it to 4-0 ATS as those teams have gone a combined 11-21 ATS (34.4 percent) in that fourth game. The Saints have won their last eight Monday Night Football games and have won 10 consecutive primetime home matchups. In those ten games, the Saints have outscored their opponents 356-176. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 10* (226) New Orleans Saints

It is no surprise that the Patriots are off to a 3-0 start or is it? This is actually the first time since 2007 that they have started off the season 3-0 and that was the year they went 18-0 before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. That team won its first three games by 79 points combined while the 2013 New England team has won its first three games by just 25 points combined and two of the wins have been by two and three points. Now things will be a lot tougher and we are clearly seeing that in the number as the Patriots go from being favorites by more than a touchdown in each of their first three games to being an underdog this week. A slight underdog but an underdog nonetheless. The Falcons came close to making it to the Super Bowl last season but just fell short so expectations are very high this season. Things have not started according to plan as Atlanta is just 1-2 but the schedule has not been in its favor as the Falcons have played the seventh toughest schedule and the Patriots will be the third team so far on the slate that is off to a 3-0 start. The two losses to the other two undefeated teams could have gone either way so feasibly they could be sitting at 3-0 right now. That makes this game that much bigger as getting off to a 1-3 start will make things difficult to even think about winning the division let alone grabbing the home field edge in the playoffs even though it is still very early. The Patriots meanwhile have played the easiest schedule in the league so far and this will be just their second road game of the year after opening in Buffalo. The Patriots offense has been average at best and it is the running game that has been the catalyst as quarterback Tom Brady is still getting used to his new receiving corps. It will be key for the Falcons to slow down the running game and all indications say they will as through three games, Atlanta's defense is holding opponents to 79.0 ypg and 3.8 ypc, which puts the Falcons back in the top 10 in terms of run defense. On the other side, the explosive Falcons offense will be facing a tough New England defense but playing at home will be a big advantage there. The Falcons fall into a tremendous league-wide situation as we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (224) Atlanta Falcons

We lost with the Jaguars last week in Seattle but I am not afraid to jump back on them here this week in what is a great spot for them as well as a horrible spot for the Colts. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league and while it is one of six teams at 0-3, it is pretty clear which team is at the bottom. The Jaguars are -64 in point differential but the worse and worse they look, the better they become at the betting markets as this line has now hit nine points in some places and while that is mostly for teaser protection, it is a great number to be on. In composition, when the Colts played here last season, they were favored by three points with Jacksonville coming off five straight losses so what has really changed since then? Indianapolis is coming off a monster win at San Francisco last week to move to 2-1 on the season as it was able to bounce back from its home loss against Miami the previous week. The Colts now hit the road again before heading back home next week to take on Seattle so this is the classic example of a letdown/lookahead situation even though this is a divisional game. While we have already touched on the value of this line from a Jacksonville perspective, we can look at the value going against the Colts as they are making an incredible 20-point in the spread from last week and that is usually unheard of in the NFL. Still, it comes as no surprise that 82 percent of the action is on the Colts yet the line has not budged in most places. Clearly the Colts are the better team in this matchup but as we all know, the better teams do not always win in this league. Winning against the spread in the NFL usually means winning ugly and that is the case here. Indianapolis can escape with a victory and that is just fine as we do not need the Jaguars outright anyway. We have three solid angles that favor the Jaguars. First, we play against teams after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 48-19 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Third, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 14 or fewer ppg, after a loss by 28 or more points. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. 10* (206) Jacksonville Jaguars

Chicago is off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2010 before it lost in Week Four in its second road game of the season and I am seeing a repeat of that here. The Bears are lucky to be undefeated right now. They rallied from an 11-point deficit against the Bengals in their season opener and then the next week against the Vikings, they waited until the final seconds to stage the rally as they scored the game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds remaining. The Bears have become the hunted now and will have a tough tine in looking for their first 4-0 start in seven years. Detroit can grab a share of the early division lead Sunday after earning its first-ever win at Washington last week, 27-20. that pushed Detroit to 2-1 on the season and made up for a tough loss at Arizona the previous week and now the Lions head back home in search of their first two-game winning streak since the middle part of last season. 2012 was a nightmare as after making the playoffs the previous year, Detroit fell to 4-12 last season but were certainly one of the better 4-12 teams in recent memory considering the Lions outgained their opponents in 11 of those 16 games. The issue was turnovers as Detroit had only one game where the offense did not commit one while the defense had six games of not taking one away. Five more games resulted in just one takeaway and overall it was -16 in turnover differential with only the Eagles and Chiefs being worse. That is why this year's version is considered a sleeper by many to make a playoff run. This is a very big game as it is the only home game in a five-game stretch including a game at Green Bay next week. The Chicago defense has been very opportunistic even it has not been very dominating overall. The Bears are tied for 19th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg and are ranked 25th in total defense at 383.0 ypg but they've scored three defensive touchdowns in the last two games while recovering six fumbles and intercepting five passes. Last week was a prime example of how turnovers can make the difference in the game as Chicago won the turnover battle against the Steelers 5-0. The Bears won by 17 points but were outgained by 201 total yards and they are the lone undefeated team in the NFL that is actually getting outgained on the season. The Bears are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games while going 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (212) Detroit Lions

It is gut check time for the 49ers. For the first time since Jim Harbaugh became head coach, San Francisco is under .500 for the season. Granted, it is only his third season but still. A loss here could be devastating even though it is early as the 49ers could feasibly find themselves three games behind Seattle in the NFC West come Sunday afternoon. A loss at Seattle was not overly shocking as it took place on the road but a home loss against the Colts in the follow up game was definitely shocking. The two games lost by a combined 46 points but San Francisco was outgained by just 83 and 82 in those games which makes us believe something is up. And it is. The 49ers lost the turnover battle 7-1 in those contests and they will not be winning many games going that, nor will many others. The Rams have an identical 1-2 record as they won at home but lost both games on the road. A return home would ideally help here but playing a Super Bowl contender coming off two losses is not what the doctor ordered. The lone St. Louis victory came against Arizona so it certainly wasn't a quality win but despite its own pooor play, don't think the 49ers are going to be taking this team lightly. St. Louis has given them fits, especially last season when they played to a tie in San Francisco while the Rams won in overtime at home in the second meeting. That game brings up a very interesting point as well. The 49ers were favored by 7.5 points then and now they are favored by just a field goal showing how the betting markets are taking this early poor start way out too seriously. There is no way the Rams have closed the gap by four points over a span of seven games where they have gone 3-4. The status for the 49ers two star defensive players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis is not good as Smith is in rehab and Willis has a groin injury that will keep both of them out here. That no doubt hurts the defense but the Rams have not shown much as they are 23rd in scoring offense and 18th in total offense. The running game has been putrid as St. Louis is 29th in yards and 27th in ypc average. However, defensively is where the Rams have really been bad as they are 26th in both scoring and overall and if there is a game that San Francisco can break out of its offensive woes, this is the one. The Thursday night home crowd will be loud but it will not be enough to keep the 49ers slumping. San Francisco falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

After a high scoring game last night in the Primetime slot, the betting markets are expecting another high scoring game tonight with Denver taking the field. The Broncos have easily surpassed the total in each of their first two games as the offense has led the way, scoring 49 points against the Ravens and 41 points against the Giants. They have started 30 drives, 11 resulting in touchdowns and two more producing field goals. Peyton Manning has opened the season with nine touchdowns and no interceptions and he is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw nine touchdowns and no interceptions in the first two weeks of a season. After a 4-12 season last year, the Raiders have shown signs of improvement in the early weeks of this season. The defense is light years ahead of where they were last year and that has been a major key to their early success. The offense has taken a step back in the passing game, but the ground game has found some traction. The Raiders will stay committed to trying to get the ground game going as the best defense against Denver is to keep Manning and the offense off the field. Denver's run defense ranks first in the league, in part because opponents have been forced to abandon the ground game after falling so far behind. Ball control is key and having the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL certainly does not hurt. The Raiders pass rush is going to be key to the defense putting up a challenge, as when opposing quarterbacks have had time in the pocket that have picked apart the Raiders secondary. Oakland has nine sacks this season which is a result of great pressure and good blitz calls from different angles and positions. Protecting Manning has been a strength of the Broncos offensive line but with the absence of left tackle Ryan Clady and center Dan Koppen, Denver is down two starters to their offensive line. Oakland is 25-11 to the Under in its last 36 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 5-1 to the Under in its last six divisional games. Meanwhile the Broncos are 6-2-1 to the Under in their last nine divisional games. 10* Under (419) Oakland Raiders/(420) Denver Broncos

The Ravens bounced back from their season opening loss at Denver with a home win against Cleveland this past Sunday although it was far from pretty and far from dominating. Baltimore could have easily been sidetracked from all of the Super Bowl celebrations going on but now with that in the rearview mirror, I am expecting a full focus this Sunday. The indifferent start for Baltimore has it now listed a home underdog this week which I think is the wrong role and definitely at the wrong time. Houston is off to a 2-0 starts and while it has won the yardage battle by 186 yards and 204 yards in those games, the victories have come by just a combined nine points including a win in overtime last week against the Texans. Houston has yet to make it over the hump during the playoffs as it has defeated Cincinnati in the first round each of the last two years only to lose in the next round, both of which were on the road. The Texans have been a pretty solid road team during the regular season the last two years, going 11-5 but they have gone four straight games on the highway without covering. I think the big surprise here is that they are favorites on the road despite posting a 0-2 ATS record in their first two games and teams in this situation are a dismal 8-21-1 ATS when going up against a team coming off a win. It is no secret that Baltimore lost a lot during the offseason on both sides of the ball and it has definitely showed in the overall rankings through two weeks but I do not think it is anything to be alarmed by considering the Ravens will only get better with each game. To take some pressure off Joe Flacco and his receivers, the Ravens have to run the ball more. Against the Broncos, Flacco passed the ball 62 times while the one-two punch of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce only got 21 combined carries. Against Cleveland, Flacco passed 24 times while the Ravens ran the ball only seven times in the fist half. Once balanced was achieved in the second half with a concerted effort to run the ball, Baltimore scored two second half touchdowns. While the Texans defense gets a lot of pub, they have not performed well this season as the unit is 23rd in points allowed and while that can be skewed, it does show vulnerability as well. Ray Rice is questionable but Bernard Pierce is more than capable as makes people miss and has a career 4.5 ypc average. A real clincher is the revenge factor. Baltimore went to Houston last season and got thumped 43-13 and that was the worst loss ever for a John Harbaugh coached Ravens team. This game has been circled for 11 months. 10* (398) Baltimore Ravens

Washington was the sexy pick to make a deep run into the playoffs this year after a great ending to last season but after a 0-2 start, people have started to get sour on the Redskins. The season is far from over and the winless start has put Washington in a desperation mode already and that actually sets up well here. We are catching a very short price with the Redskins which are back home for their first Sunday game of the season in Washington. The situation is pretty simple in that Washington needs to get off to a better start if they want any chance in this game. The Redskins have trailed by a combined score of 50-7 at halftime through the first two games so playing from behind has dealt them no chance of catching up. That changes here. The Lions opened the season with a solid home win over the Vikings before stumbling last week in Arizona. Detroit held an eight-point lead late in the third quarter but it was outscored 12-0 down the stretch to make it four straight losses on the road dating back to last season. Nonetheless, the Lions are still getting too much credit as they were favored last week and are getting a shorter than anticipated price this week which is confusing to me. Put this team on the carpet and they can compete with anyone but they are far from the best team we have seen on grass. Detroit is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a loss when favored including a 0-4 ATS record last season and they are also 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games against a non-divisional opponent that is coming off consecutive losses. The matchup does seem to favor the Lions as they bring in one of the top passing offenses in the league to face the worst passing defense in the NFL. The Redskins are allowing a league-worst QB rating of 135.4 but they faced an unknown Eagles offense in their first game and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay in their second game and those are two tough matchups. I think this is the easiest of the three thus far and let's not forget the Lions will likely be without running back Reggie Bush. They were scoreless against Arizona once he left the game. On the other side, RGIII is in his third game and he could be in for a massive day. Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is 18-6-1 ATS in his 25 games coming off consecutive losses against an opponent off a loss and Washington falls into a great situation on top of it. Play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (404) Washington Redskins

Tennessee heads back to Nashville for its home opener following what was a very successful two-game roadtrip to open the season. The Titans went into Pittsburgh and defeated the Steelers opening weekend and they had a chance to make it a sweep last week as they took Houston into overtime before losing on a Matt Schaub touchdown pass. The offense remains a work in progress as they have yet to eclipse 250 yards of offense in a game but the defense has played good enough for them to be successful. To their credit, the titans have played two very strong defenses in the Steelers and Texans and now they square off against the 31st-ranked Chargers defense so the offense has the potential for a big game. After losing a heartbreaker against Houston on opening weekend, the Chargers did not hang their heads as they went into Philadelphia last week and defeated the Eagles with a field goal with seven seconds remaining. Now San Diego has to head back east once again putting it in a tough situation coming off that big win. Quarterback Philip Rivers seems reenergized as he is having a solid season through two games, throwing for 614 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception. He will be without Malcolm Floyd however who suffered a neck injury last week after putting up 102 receiving yards before going down. That is a big loss. While the Titans offense has been slowed, the play of quarterback Jake Locker last week was solid. He led two long scoring drives in the game and capped each of them with a touchdown pass. His six-yard touchdown connection with Kendall Wright in the first quarter completed an 80-yard drive, and in the fourth quarter, he directed a 99-yard march that ended with a 10-yard touchdown pass to tight end Delanie Walker. San Diego is dead last in the league in passing defense but it doesn't end there as the Chargers are allowing 4.3 ypc on the ground, and the Titans have made it clear that they will feed running back Chris Johnson the ball. Getting him going will set up the passing game even more. While history means little, the Chargers have won nine straight meetings in this series but it is the one last year that the Titans remember as they were slammed in San Diego 38-10 while getting outgained by over 200 total yards. Floyd had six receptions for 109 yards in that game but again, he will be out for this one. Taking care of the ball will be important for the Titans as they have yet to turn it over this season. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up victory while Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in its previous game. Additionally, San Diego is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (392) Tennessee Titans

The Eagles looked great in their opener at Washington last Monday as they stormed out of the gates on offense and never looked back to pick up a season opening win. Things were not as good last week in their home opener despite another big day on offense. Philadelphia racked up 511 total yards of offense and after spotting San Diego to a 13-3 lead, it was able to come back and take the lead midway through the fourth quarter but the defense could not hold as the Chargers kicked the game winning field goal with seven seconds remaining. After two weeks, the offense is ranked third in scoring and second overall but the issue remains with the defense as the Eagles are 28th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense. Playing two pretty potent offenses has not helped matters but I expect the stop unit to tighten up this week. The Chiefs are off to a 2-0 start under new head coach Andy Reid as he makes his return to Philadelphia. Kansas City definitely got a scheduling break as it was able to open the season against lowly Jacksonville and then played its home opener against Dallas which was coming off a huge Sunday night win against the Giants the previous week. The Chiefs were outgained slightly against the Cowboys but the defense did its job for a second straight week. The offense though remains a work in progress with new quarterback Alex Smith. He has been very efficient with a 94.7 passer rating and while Kansas City is 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, it is just 26th in total offense which is a big reason I feel the Eagles will be able to improve immensely on defense this week. Kansas City is second in the NFL in rushing defense however part of that is due to it has seen the fewest rushing attempts of any team in the league. After the Eagles put up 263 yards on the ground in Washington, they came back and rushed for just 89 yards against San Diego but they did run the ball just 20 times. Overall, Philadelphia is averaging a healthy 5.1 ypc which is fifth best in the NFL and as long as it gets back to a balanced attack from not having to play catch up, the Chiefs could be in for a long night. The Chiefs have yet to commit a turnover this season which is another big reason they are off to an undefeated start. That will not last. The Eagles have not covered a home game since the season finale two years ago as they are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home and that is helping keep this line down to just a field goal. While the big story is Reid coming back to Philadelphia, it means absolutely nothing in this matchup and I expect the Eagles top come out strong and force the Chiefs to play catch up this time. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles

The Steelers are coming off a miserable game as they lost at home against Tennessee 16-9. it looked as though things would be going their way after the Titans were called for a safety on the opening kickoff however Pittsburgh would go scoreless on offense for the entire game until it scored a touchdown with 1:23 remaining. It was certainly a performance that doesn't bring a lot of confidence into this game but the good thing is that there is no where to go but up. The loss of center Maurkice Pouncey is no doubt a huge one and that puts more pressure on the offensive line but I expect the unit to step up in his absence. This is a great example of overreacting to the first week of play as the Steelers looked bad to the public therefore they are not going to be a popular pick tonight which is just the way I like it. While the Steelers were losing at home, the Bengals looked as though they were going to win in Chicago as they took a 21-10 lead with midway through the third quarter but then both units shut down. After taking that 11-point lead, the Bengals' final three drives all resulted in three-and-outs while the defense allowed drives 81 and 80 yards with both of those being turned into touchdowns. It was a tough way to lose and while the obvious thinking here is that Cincinnati bounces back, I'm not so certain of that. It will be a great home environment for sure but I do not think the Bengals should be laying this high of a number. In Marvin Lewis' 11 seasons as head coach, the Bengals have been favored just twice against Pittsburgh and in both games, the Steelers won outright. While the Steelers offense took a lot of the blame in the loss last week, the defense did not get a lot of credit. They allowed just one play of longer than 15 yards, and they shut down the Titans' running game, allowing only 112 yards on 42 carries (2.7 ypc). The Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a loss by three points or less. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games coming off a loss and after scoring 15 points or fewer, it is 9-3 ATS in its next game. This is a huge game for both sides as neither team can afford a 0-2 start as getting to the playoffs with that record is a stretch, even this early in the season. The Steelers have never started a season 0-2 during Mike Tomlin's tenure as head coach, and they don't want to start now. The thing here is that we are getting an inflated number here in a divisional matchup that easily could come down to the last possession. 10* (223) Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver heads to New York for the Manning Bowl and if you can get past the hype for this one, we have a very good situation on our hands. I've stated it before as teams are not as good as they looked in their previous game and teams are not as bad as they looked in their previous game. That is the case in this matchup. Taking nothing away from what Peyton Manning and the Broncos did against Baltimore last Thursday night but some are already crowning them Super Bowl Champions. That was a big game for Denver as it was out for revenge and it took care of that. Now the Broncos hit the road where they were 6-2 last season but four of those wins came against teams that didn't even sniff the postseason. The Giants meanwhile are coming off what head coach Tom Coughlin called "one of the worst games I have ever witnessed". And he is right, New York gave the ball up six times, three fumbles and three interceptions, with two of those turnovers returned for touchdowns. The Giants still outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards so take some for those turnovers away and New York likely wins the game which makes the game this week a completely different situation and would likely come with a different line. The loss however has provided us with not only a better line but with the public lining up on the visitor, this line could go up even more by kickoff with public money pouring in late. We have seen an early reverse line move here as the majority of the action has come in on the Broncos yet the line has come down and those are the moves we like to play. The Giants offense is going to give the Broncos some problems as Denver was never is trouble against Baltimore which had very limited options at receiver. New York had three wide receivers finish with at least 100 yards against the Cowboys, Victor Cruz with 118 yards on five catches, Hakeem Nicks with 115 yards on five catches and Rueben Randle with 101 yards on five catches. With a Denver defense that is banged up and missing others, look for the Giants to continue their offensive success. On the other side, the Giants defensive front looked much improve from a year ago, and that was with their best defensive lineman, end Jason Pierre-Paul, showing signs of rust from nearly three months of no activity following back surgery. Ping the Denver defense is impossible but slowing it down is not and that is the goal for New York. The Giants have a great situation on their side as well as we play on home teams that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (220) New York Giants

This is the classic example of fading a team that played great in the first week of the season while backing a team that looked awful. The Saints got the season off to a good start following last year's debacle as they defeated Atlanta at home in a come-from-behind victory. They spotted the Falcons a 10-0 lead before coming back to take the lead and after losing the lead early in the third quarter, came back again and held on in the final seconds. New Orleans will no doubt have its strong home field advantage back this year but playing on the road has never been easy for this team and I expect a big letdown come Sunday. The Buccaneers put up a dud in New York last Sunday as they blew a late lead no thanks to a bonehead personal foul penalty in the final second which set the Jets up for the game winning field goal. Penalties were the story as Tampa Bay committed 13 of them for 102 yards and it is tough to win any game no matter the situation when that happens. Now the Buccaneers go from a road favorite to a home underdog this week which is a very big swing over the course of just one week. Tampa Bay needs to apply pressure to Drew Brees in order to slow him down and while that was unheard of last year in the two losses, things could be different here. The pass rush was the Buccaneers weakness last season but they showed Sunday they are turning that into a strength. Tampa's blitzing linebackers hit Jets quarterback Geno Smith all day, sacking him five times and forcing a fumble. The New Orleans defense allowed just 17 points against the Falcons but did allow 367 total yards. The new look Saints defense will be the wild card in the early part of the season and it will be up to Tampa Bay to balance things out. Josh Freeman did not look very good last week but a return home should help. He posted a 72.3 passer rating on the road last year but that jumped to 91.5 in eight home games. Additionally, running back Doug Martin, who was a non-factor last week, needs a breakout game to keep the defense honest. The Saints are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games against winless opponents from Game Two on while Tampa Bay is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. The Buccaneers racked up 513 total yards in the home loss to the Saints last year and it will not be a surprise if that offense busts out again. 10* (214) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I like going against teams that are coming off big wins on national television the previous week as not only does it provide the possibility for a letdown but it also gets the public wanting to go right back on them. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday night as they defeated New York by five points in what was one of the uglier games of opening weekend. Dallas benefitted from six Giants turnovers, two of which were returned for scores so it was fortunate in that regard. The Cowboys were outgained by 147 total yards so this is the prime example of a deceiving final score. We will surely take the win last week but we are in an even better position this week by fading the "false winner" from winner from last week. Kansas City is coming off an easy win over the Jaguars last Sunday as the defense did not allow a point as the only points given up came from a blocked punt for a safety. Jacksonville is clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL so a lot of people will take that Chiefs win and say there was nothing special about it. While it was definitely a game they should have won, they won it resoundingly which is a big part of it. Had Kansas City just snuck by, we would not be as high on them this week but because of the lopsided win, we feel more confident and even more so heading back to Kansas City for their home opener. The Chiefs have a pretty solid edge in coaching here as well. Andy Reid has a very good understanding of the Cowboys after spending many years in Philadelphia and playing them twice a year. Including the playoffs, Reid went 17-12 against the Cowboys during his 14 seasons coaching the Eagles. WE saw some early reverse line movement as the big percentage of bets were on the Cowboys yet the line moved the other way. Once the public gets involved, we should see this number get back down below three every where so I would suggest holding off as I see this line going one way only and that is down. The Chiefs have a solid situation on their side as well as we play on favorites in the first two weeks of the year, after closing out last season with three or more straight ATS losses. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Dallas has not been very good in this situation as it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a win while going 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (210) Kansas City Chiefs

Not many people will be giving the over a chance based on what we saw these teams do last week. The Jets offense sputtered as expected with rookie Geno Smith behind center but they were able to do just enough, along with some help from a bonehead Tampa Bay penalty, to pull out the victory. New York managed only 304 yards of offense while putting up just 18 points but I see better things taking place this week. Smith was able to not only make plays with his strong arm, but scrambled out of trouble multiple times Sunday. He threw for 256 yards and a touchdown which are certainly not earth shattering numbers but so a guy that only took 69 snaps in the preseason, it is a very solid line. The Jets are facing a Patriots defense that was pretty average a year ago and there are some questions about whether or not they will stay at that level or even fall down some. Against Buffalo, they allowed just 286 total yards and while that was also against a fellow rookie starting quarterback, facing Smith in his second game should prove to be more difficult than facing E.J. Manual in his first game. The Jets defense was very solid as they held Tampa Bay to 250 total yards including just 65 yards rushing on 25 carries (2.6 ypc). The defense was a question coming into the season and despite a solid Week One, I think it is still a question. The Jets run defense is a lot better than the Bills version, and the Patriots won't have Shane Vereen to fall back on. If neither Brandon Bolden nor LeGarrette Blount can get it done, then they will be forced to throw the ball a lot and that only helps us here. The New England passing offense is a work in progress as all five of quarterback Tom Brady's top receivers from 2012 were absent in Buffalo. They accounted for 338 of his 401 completions last season, which is 84.3 percent but you cannot count him out. New England still managed 431 total yards and heading home, it will be more than fine. Coming off two unders last week, I really think we are catching a ton of value. This is the lowest total in this series since 2010 when the Patriots and Jets began their over run of seven straight games, a streak that is still in progress. Based on the line and spread, the projection would be New England 28 New York 16 and I believe that the Jets can get more than that as settling for three field goals against Tampa Bay hurt them. The over is 20-8-1 in the Jets last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the over is 20-8 in the Patriots last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) New York Jets/(102)/New England Patriots

Last night, we got our first glimpse of what the NFC East could be like this season and it wasn't pretty as Dallas and New York put forth a very ugly effort. Tonight, the other two teams square off as the new look Eagles head to Washington to take on the projected divisional championship by the majority. The big storyline for Washington is quarterback Robert Griffin III who is back in the starting lineup after tearing his ACL just over eight months ago. He says he is ready and that he would not be out there otherwise and that I believe. But while his knee may be back to full health, he will be showing some rust as he did not take a snap during the preseason which puts him in a tough spot here. On the other side, the Eagles brought in Chip Kelly from Oregon and with him comes a brand new system which is obviously tricky to pick up right away. But I still give that edge to Philadelphia as while it may take time to learn, it is impossible for a defense to prepare for something it has never seen before. The Redskins can look at all the preseason film they want. But Kelly, like most NFL coaches, didn't give much away in his game-planning for those contests. In six career starts against Washington, Michael Vick is 3-1 with 805 passing yards, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has also ran for two touchdowns, while rushing for over 100 yards. The big game could come from LeSean McCoy however. He looked unstoppable in the preseason in Kelly's new offense, and he will be utilized much more than he was in Andy Reid's pass happy west coast offense. The Eagles lost both meetings a year ago and after a disastrous 4-12 season, they will be out to open the Kelly era with a victory and while motivation will not be lacking on the other side, Philadelphia has more answers to the questions coming into this one. Additionally, the Redskins defense puts Philadelphia into a solid situation where we play against favorites in a divisional matchup that allowed 5.4 yppl or more last season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Going back to last season, the Redskins have been the much better team against the spread and because of their 4-0 preseason, I feel the value is on the side of the Eagles as that hook on top of the field goal is huge in my opinion. 10* (479) Philadelphia Eagles

Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers. Setting the lines is tough as the main parameters are based on last season's performances and this year's expectations and this line is clearly taking those into account. The Colts had one of the best turnaround seasons ever as they went from going 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012 and earning a playoff berth. Indianapolis is now back on the map and expectations are high once again but as good as the Colts were last season, they were never favored even close to what they are favored by in Week One against the Raiders. I'm not saying last year was a fluke but of the 11 wins Indianapolis had, six of those came by four points or fewer while another came in overtime by six points. Adding to this, the Colts became the first team in NFL history to win 11 or more games during the regular season while being outscored by their opponents. The Colts covered 11 games last season but six of those were as underdogs and the five they covered as favorites, they were a 4.5-point chalk or less each time. The Raiders are not expected to be a very good team this season as they have one of the lowest regular season win totals which is 5.5. They went 4-12 last season which after two straight 8-8 seasons so they are definitely going the wrong way but this is the NFL and strange things can happen, case in point the Colts last season. Oakland was not very good on the road, going 1-7 but again all of this is playing into this line which is why it is as high as it is. Looking at matchups, stopping the Colts offense and quarterback Andrew Luck is not an easy task but if ever there is a matchup that suits the Raiders, this is it. Their secondary is looking very good as Charles Woodson, D.J. Hayden, Tracy Porter, and Mike Jenkins form a great unit. The Colts are thin in the backfield so the Raiders should see a lot of throws from Luck and let's not forget, he had 18 interceptions a year ago. On the other side, Terrelle Pryor will get the start and while he has proven nothing, the read-option he will utilize could cause some problems for the Colts. I am a contrarian by nature, especially in the NFL, and this is the ultimate in contrarian as the public is all over the Colts which is just the way I prefer it the first week of the season. 10* (471) Oakland Raiders

There are four home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Seattle was outstanding last year by going 11-5 in the regular season and then splitting in the playoffs. The Seahawks closed by winning five straight to end the regular season and then taking out Washington in the first round of the playoffs after falling behind early before losing by two at Atlanta in the Divisional Round. They are now considered a Super Bowl contender by many and their +350 to win the NFC certainly proves that. Based on all of this, there is no way they could not be a road favorite to open the season and it has a step further as they are favored by more than a field goal. Seattle put together its second straight undefeated preseason but lest we forget that after going 4-0 last season, it opened the regular season at Arizona and lost outright as a point favorite. Now the Seahawks have to travel to the east coast for an early game and while rumor has it, they are preparing the right way for it, it is not an easy task. After closing 2011 with wins in four of their final six games, expectations were high for the Panthers last year, especially after the great rookie season Cam Newton had at quarterback. Unfortunately, Carolina would start the season 2-8 and the season was lost. The Panthers did go 5-1 over their last six games including winning their last four but this time around, expectations are not nearly as high and that helps us with public perception which ultimately helps us with the line. One huge edge for the Panthers here is the banged up Seattle defense as Bruce Irvin starts his suspension, Chris Clemons won't play while still recovering from his knee injury, Cliff Avril is nursing a hamstring, and Seattle's two starting defensive tackles are battling groin injuries. As for the Carolina defense, it improved from 2011 to 2012 and should be better this year thanks to rookies Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short who will contribute right away. I expect Newton to have a big season as he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder amid the criticism he has taken but he played as good as any quarterback in the second half of last season. Don't be surprised to see the outright win here. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

Prior to last season when the Giants lost against Dallas on Thursday night to open the season, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers in each of the previous three years starting with Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. It needs to be noted that all three of those teams were favored and at home and the Ravens did not get the luxury of getting a home game to open the season because of a conflict with the Orioles. Baltimore was already set to host the Chicago White Sox next door at 7:05 and because of a shared parking lot, both could play the same night and a compromise could not be made. I feel the Ravens will be playing with a chip on their shoulder because of this. Since the offseason started, the Ravens, in particular linebacker Terrell Suggs, have talked about the lack of respect given the team, and head coach John Harbaugh has echoed those sentiments throughout training camp. The defending Super Bowl Champions will be out to prove the doubters wrong. Denver will no doubt be amped up for this game as this is the matchup that saw their season come to an end last year. The Broncos were 7-1 at home during the regular season with most of those being blowouts so they are obviously favored for a reason. I think the line is way too much even though it is less than the 9.5-point spread from that playoff game. Baltimore did lose a lot from last year especially on the defensive side, namely Ray Lewis and Ed Reed but I think the defense will be improved as they are bigger, faster, younger and stronger on defense and last season they weren't that great to begin with. On the other side, a sloppy preseason on offense should have no one worried as Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell says the Ravens' offense could display some different characteristics now that the games actually count. As far as the Broncos go, they are the favorites to win the Super Bowl but they have some questions as well. Defensively, they are without Von Miller and Champ Bailey isn't close to 100 percent while the loss of outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Baltimore is huge. Offensively, Peyton Manning is still one of the best quarterbacks around but his offensive line and running game are average at best and he will be under pressure all night. Obviously, Denver will be out for revenge but winning and covering are two different matters. 10* (451) Baltimore Ravens

Two weeks ago, the AFC was -3 in the Super Bowl and now the AFC that is represented by Baltimore is getting points. That line two weeks ago could have been determined by the matchup between the top seeds Denver and Atlanta but I not think the swing should be this big with the fact that Baltimore is now the AFC representative. The value is tremendous and we are backing a team getting more points that is should that is peaking at the right time.

Baltimore is certainly playing some of its best football of the season so the extra week off may have some concerned. I do not think this is a liability though and I actually think it helps the Ravens out more than anything. The Giants were in the same scenario a season ago and they ended up winning the Super Bowl. The additional week off gives Baltimore extra time to get ready for Colin Kaepernick and it will be the first team that has had two weeks to prepare for him this season.

Another bonus for the extra time off for Baltimore is to rest its defense. The Ravens defense has been on field for 1,342 plays this season and since start of 2001, no defense has logged more plays in a season The Ravens have allowed a lot of yards during the playoffs, 415.0 ypg in fact, but due to the volume of plays run against them, they're allowing just 4.86 yppl, which is the lowest number among the 12 playoff teams so the defense that gets a bad rap has stepped up huge.

Joe Flacco has become the first quarterback in NFL history to win six playoff games on the road and this season he has been exceptional. He has completed 51-93 pass attempts for 853 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 114.7. A large portion of that success can be credited to a reshuffled offensive line that has allowed just four sacks this postseason. I was pretty unimpressed with the 49ers against the Falcons and taking them out of San Francisco has made a big difference.

The utilization of the no-huddle offense has simplified the game for Flacco while producing a better rhythm and tempo. Consequently, the Ravens have blown through the playoffs behind an offense that is far more explosive and diverse than the regular-season version. Because the offensive line has been so good, the 49ers will not have much success getting to Flacco and that is huge as the San Francisco pass defense is only good when the defensive line can apply pressure.

On the other side, the 49ers will utilize a combination of zone-read running and play-action passing against a Ravens defense that struggled to contain a similar offensive attack run by Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins in Week 14. This means nothing in my opinion as the Ravens are a difference defense now. They are playing at a much higher level and it cannot be understated that Baltimore was not even close to 100 percent healthy in that game as it is now.

If this is a close game toward the end of the game, Baltimore has a huge edge in my opinion. Even though he is just a rookie, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season long and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco hit the upright on a FG attempt against the Falcons and nearly was replaced before the game. He has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens

This is a rematch of not only the Week Three meeting, won by Baltimore by a point, but also a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Patriots won by a field goal. New England was able to cover the inflated line against Houston last week but I do not see it happening again. In the first meeting this year, Baltimore was favored by 2.5 points which should make the Patriots about a 4.5-point favorite here based on a venue switch. Have these teams changed that much to inflate the line this much? I do not think so.

The Ravens got an improbable win in Denver thanks to a defensive gaffe by the Broncos that allowed a 71-yard touchdown pass with less than a minute remaining to send the game into overtime. Still, Baltimore has to be given a lot of credit to be able to go into Denver and take down the top seed that was riding an 11-game winning streak. The question is, can the Ravens get up once again and do the same? I totally expect them to as I not only expect them to keep it close, an outright win is far from out of the question.

I think Baltimore is in fine shape similar to last season despite a lot of distractions and negative situations coming into the postseason. The Ravens lost several key performers to injuries, fired their offensive coordinator following their 13th game and dropped four of their final five contests heading into the playoffs. I am nit buying any of the 'Team of Destiny' talk but I do buy the fact that when teams are down and thought to be out, they tend to step up as adversity can bring out the best in players.

Hats off to New England for taking out the Texans but they only outgained Houston by 32 totals yards but were able to take advantage of Houston mistakes and that doesn't mean turnovers. Matt Schaub did not play a very good game and the Texans finished 4-15 on third down and a team cannot win with that type of inconsistency. The victory over the Texans came with a cost, as star tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his left forearm and is out for the rest of the playoffs.

The Patriots will be out for revenge but this line totally takes away any edge, if there was any at all. They actually fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Ravens have been in this situation before and have thrived, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games while New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games. 10* (303) Baltimore Ravens

After seeing every game go under the total in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, every game in the Divisional Round went over the total and none were even close. Each game this past weekend went over by at least 12 points and the average game score was a whopping 69 ppg. What does that do for us this week? I creates some inflated totals because after those overs hit, the same will be bet this week by the majority of the betting markets so the linesmakers had to make the proper adjustments.

This number is sitting at 48 in most spots as of Monday morning and putting into perspective from the Atlanta side, it is a higher total than last week despite going up against a better defense and arguably the best stop unit in the NFL. The Falcons were able to hang 30 points on a very solid Seattle defense but most of the damage came early and once the Seahawks made their adjustments, Atlanta struggled. Expect the 49ers to have a gameplan right from the beginning that is going to make Atlanta stay in neutral.

The big concern here is the Falcons defense as they got exposed once again last week against the Seahawks. Whether it was a prevent type of defense that was played late, Atlanta could not stop Seattle down the stretch but I think that experience will help them going forward. The experience of playing a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson should help the Falcons prepare for Colin Kaepernick, who is even more dangerous running the read-option behind a huge and tough offensive line.

On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons.

The 49ers have now gone over the total in five straight games and that is another reason this one is so high as streaks like that love to be played. We play on the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 124-75 under (62.3 percent) since 1983. Also, Atlanta is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last game. 10* Under (301) San Francisco 49ers/(302) Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons got the monkey off their backs as they were finally able to win in the playoffs which was their first postseason win since 2004. It was the first playoff victory for head coach Mike Smith and for quarterback Matt Ryan as they had come in with a 0-3 playoff record prior to the miraculous win. Blowing a 27-7 lead looked as though Atlanta was in for another decimating defeat but it was able to move down field in under 30 seconds to kick the game-winning field goal.

San Francisco was arguably rooting for Seattle so it could get to play this game at home however the matchup is much better here despite the fact it has to take to the road. The 49ers are coming off a domination of the Packers as they outgained Green Bay by 227 total yards and the game was not even as close as the 14-point margin of victory showed. They held the Packers to 352 total yards and only 17 points can be blamed on the defense as a pick six and a garbage score late upped the Green Bay scoring output.

Atlanta knows it has a lot of work to be done on defense and while I do think it will be able to get over that second half debacle against the Seahawks, this unit is not very good right now. The Falcons are 24th in total yards allowed and while the point totals have been kept in check for the most part, that is largely due to turnovers which will not be easy to come by here as San Francisco turned it over on 16 times during the regular season, tied for second fewest in the NFL.

On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons.

We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 ypg. This situation is 53-27 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. San Francisco is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while under head coach Jim Harbaugh, it is 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Conversely, the Falcons are 3-19 ATS in their last 22 home games coming off a home win. 10* (301) San Francisco 49ers

I bet on the Patriots in the last matchup with Houston back on December 10th and it doesn't get much easier than that one as New England rolled to a 42-14 win. The betting public has not forgotten that game and with everyone still down on the Texans, they will be looking for a similar result here. Thus, the number had to be adjusted and it has been adjusted by four points which is a huge overreaction in my opinion. New England is surely one of the best teams in the NFL but this line is absurd.

The Texans won by just six points against the Bengals in their Wild Card matchup on Saturday but they dominated by more than what that score is telling us. A pick six by the Bengals was the only touchdown scored and Houston dominated by outgaining Cincinnati 420-198. Looking at just the score is not a true indication as Houston stepped up after a lethargic end to the regular season and this is still a very dangerous team on both sides of the ball.

Betting against the Patriots at home in the playoffs was never a wise move as they were a perfect 4-0 from 2003 to 2007 but since then, New England is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home playoff games so while many will argue going against the Patriots at home is suicide, it is fact is not what it used to be. Playing against the Patriots coming off a bye is another myth as New England is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games with two weeks of rest, outscoring their opponents by just 3.9 ppg.

The Texans are obviously playing with revenge here and while road revenge is not a great scenario to back, this one is different. Houston was absolutely embarrassed on national television and it will be out to make sure that does not happen again. The Texans fall into a great situation as well as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (115) Houston Texans

We saw all four Wild Card Round game stay under the total which helped ease some of the pain for bookmakers that were killed by all four favorites coming in. That being said, we are likely going to see more high scoring games in the Divisional Round and I think this one has the most potent to surpass the total by the greatest amount. These teams are a combined 20-13 to the under this season and it is the recent results where I feel we are getting the best value out of this number.

Seattle had gone on a 5-0 over streak prior to the final week of the regular season where it stayed under against the Rams and last week against Washington also resulted in a winning under ticket. Granted this is the highest total the Seahawks have seen all season but it is for a reason. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in six straight games but one look at the opposing offenses will tell you why, not counting last week because of the RGIII injury. Now comes a test.

The Falcons are ranked eighth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense and it is largely due to a passing offense that is sixth overall and fourth in ypa. They have the best one-two punch in the league with receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White not to mention tight end Tony Gonzalez and slot receiver Harry Douglas that work the underneath and middle of the field. This offense provides a tough matchup for arguably the best secondary in the NFL and Atlanta should be able to exploit it.

Seattle will be without defensive end Chris Clemons who tore his ACL against Washington and that is a big blow. He registered 11.5 sacks while forcing three fumbles for Seattle in 2012. Seattle falls into a contrarian over situation as we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team off two or more consecutive unders and allowing 17 or fewer ppg on the season. This situation is 27-5 to the over (84.4 percent) the last five seasons. 10* Over (113) Seattle Seahawks/(114) Atlanta Falcons

With the favorites going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Wild Card round, we are seeing a lot of value on some underdogs this week and this is one of them. It is no secret that the public loves this Denver team and why not? The Broncos closed on a perfect 4-0 ATS run while going 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games. Therefore, this line is inflated. Denver was a double-digit favorite in three of its last four games and while it covered all three of those, they were against teams not even sniffing the playoffs.

The kneejerk reaction for Baltimore would be it is in for an emotional letdown after taking out Indianapolis in what was Ray Lewis' last home game. If it was the regular season and the Ravens were not going to the playoffs then I will buy that but there is not going to be any sort of a letdown here in the postseason. Baltimore has proven that it can win on the road in the playoffs, going 5-3 straight up and ATS the last four years and not once has it seen a line this big.

Denver went into Baltimore and smacked around the Ravens earlier this season but the spot was a horrible one for Ravens when looking back. I was on Baltimore in that game but that was more of a play against the Broncos which were riding an eight-game winning streak. Baltimore was coming off two overtime games, where it went 1-1, as well as a game against Pittsburgh sandwiched in-between which it lost by three points. The situation is a lot different this week.

The Broncos have eclipsed 30 points in each of their last three games and with the week off, some of that momentum has been lost. Additionally, they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games. Baltimore falls into a phenomenal league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Baltimore Ravens

Indianapolis has been a great story this season from the huge turnaround from last season to the inspired play backing the coaching situation. Now we are at a different level and while the run was a fantastic one, this is where it comes to an end. The Colts are an extremely young team with nine starters having no playoff experience whatsoever and that is a pretty big thing at this level. Indianapolis has only three wins against teams with a winning record as it played the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Baltimore lost its regular season finale at Cincinnati but it wasn't because it was outplayed. The Ravens got the starters some work before pulling them to avoid injuries and while there is no momentum heading into the postseason, it should not be an issue here. They went 1-4 in their final five games and that will deter some people to back them but more importantly in my opinion is the fact that they outgained their last two opponents by 347 and 163 yards.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck had a great rookie season as he tossed 23 touchdowns and threw for 4,374 yards but it is hard to ignore the fact that he threw 18 interceptions and his 76.5 passer rating was seventh worst among qualified starters. The Ravens defense was not up to their usual dominating standards this season but they still finished 12th in scoring defense. Baltimore finished +9 in turnover margin, third in the AFC, while its 28 takeaways were fifth in the conference.

The Colts have had the ability to win close games this season but they are -12 in turnover margin and at -30 points in scoring margin, they are the only playoff team that is in the negative. While the offense has shown some good signs, it is too inconsistent to try and make any sort of run. The Colts have failed to reach 300 total yards in any of their last four games. On the other side, the defense finished the regular season ranked 26th overall and 21st in points allowed. Baltimore will have no issues moving the ball.

The Ravens have a great situation on their side as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +10 ppg. Additionally, Baltimore is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games versus teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl. A great story comes to an end in Baltimore on Sunday. 10* (106) Baltimore Ravens

Same time. Same matchup. Same result? I definitely believe so. The media is saying the Texans are done and after losing three of their last four games to knock themselves out of a first round bye, the public has its doubts are well and rightfully so. This is one of the most talented teams in the league on both sides of the ball and if they come out with the fire and passion that they possessed early in the season, they are going to be a tough out but obviously they need to pick it up right here.

The Bengals have been here before, literally. Cincinnati played in Houston in the Wild Card round last year and it got hammered 31-10 and that was against a banged up Texans team that was missing some key players, most notably quarterback Matt Schaub. The Bengals will be better off this year with their experience but I still do not think they have what it takes to make noise in the postseason. They beat only two playoff teams this year, Washington when it had yet to hit its stride, and Baltimore in Week 17 when the Ravens rested their starters most of the game.

The gameplan should be an easy one for Houston as it needs to run the ball and should not have a problem doing so. The Texans last three losses produced an average of just 78.7 ypg on the ground and it is important to note that they are 7-0 in games this season in which Arian Foster rushed for 100-plus yards and 5-4 in the others. The Bengals rushing defense is average and while they went through a stretch of five games of not allowing 100 yards, they allowed 206 yards last week against Baltimore.

The Houston defense has been ravaged with injuries this season, notably the linebacking corps but the unit is pretty healthy coming into the playoffs. Overall, the Texans are seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense and despite the loss to the Colts, they allowed just 265 total yards. The Bengals are ranked 22nd in total offense and that is pretty weak considering they played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season. I do not see them having much success here.

Houston falls into a solid league-wide system where we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game. 10* (102) Houston Texans

Dallas and Washington are playing for the NFC East and neither team will want to get into a shootout as that is where the majority of mistakes can be made. We are getting a lot of value here as well based on recent results and recent meeting history. These teams met on Thanksgiving and the game flew over the number as 69 points were scored on a 47-point closing number. Additionally, both teams have been involved in high-scoring games of late as Dallas as gone over in two straight games and even though both went into overtime, that did not come into play. Meanwhile Washington has gone over in three straight games and because of these factors, we are seeing a very high number here. Not counting Dallas playing New Orleans last week, this is the highest total the Cowboys have seen and for Washington, it has gone under in the last four games where the total was 48 points or higher. Add to the fact this is the Sunday night game and the public will be all over the over so the market had to adjust. Dallas is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games on the road with a total of 45.5 or higher while Washington is 12-5 to the under in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (315) Dallas Cowboys/(316) Washington Redskins

The Patriots played a horrible game at home against San Francisco two weeks ago and instead of coming out and rebounding huge last week, they struggled again against the Jaguars. New England won but if was hardly a good effort and the Patriots know that they need a big game heading into the playoffs. New England is still in line for the top seed in the AFC but it needs both Houston and Denver to lose. The Texans play early so New England will know its fate but that doesn't mean it will quit should Houston win as a first round bye would still be a possibility should Denver lose. That scenario isn't likely but as stated, the Patriots are going to play to win and win big to get their momentum and confidence back in order. The Dolphins are not going to give in either as they have won two straight games but those both came at home against the lowly Jaguars and Bills. They have lost three straight road games and overall have been outgained in nine of their last 11 games and 11 of 16 on the season. They hung tough against New England in the first meeting and we are actually getting line value on the Patriots as they were favored by eight points in Miami and are favored by only two more points here. New England is 18-6 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season under head coach Bill Belichick so it will again play full out for four quarters. 10* (304) New England Patriots

Seattle is playing at a very high level right now so this will not be a very popular pick but the majority of mine in the NFL aren't popular anyway. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win over San Francisco to keep their divisional hopes alive but those hopes are slim. Seattle needs to win and have San Francisco to lost at home against Arizona and that is pretty unlikely so we could see Seattle resting some players as the game progresses. It was the third straight blowout victory for the Seahawks as they have outscored their opponents 150-30 but keeping this up is extremely difficult. Because of the big wins, the line has gone through the roof and that is proven by the fact that Seattle was laying the exact same number against the Cardinals at home three weeks ago and the Rams cannot be compared to Arizona. St. Louis has closed strong and while it will not make the playoffs, finishing with a winning record is the goal right now. The Rams are 4--1 over their last five games and they have not lost on the road since mid-October at Miami, going 3-0-1 since then. This is a revenge game for Seattle but that is not a big factor and it actually goes against the Seahawks as we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (331) St. Louis Rams

I won with New England two weeks ago as it easily took care of Houston on national television. Based on that and the whole public to see, I went against the Patriots and took the 49ers and they were able to take out New England, again on national television. Now San Francisco is riding the overinflated public side angle and it is playing its second straight difficult road game in one of the most difficult venues in the league. The 49ers are a great team but not in a great position.

The Seahawks have won three straight games to climb right into the playoff picture and the divisional race for that matter. Seattle is 9-5 and it has the best record in the NFC for non-divisional leaders so getting that first Wild Card spot is looking good as it can clinch with a win. Seattle and Atlanta are the only two remaining undefeated home teams in the league heading into this week. The last home loss for the Seahawks came last season in the final home game and it was against the 49ers so it looks to be payback time.

Normally, playing on a team like Seattle is a no-no as it is coming off consecutive blowout wins where it put up a ton of points and that typically is a play against situation if anything. There is a big difference here though. Those teams coming off big win tend to get overvalued next time out but that isn't the case here as the Seahawks have moved to a home underdog in some spots. As a rule, we would have to lay down a lot of points to grab Seattle but instead we are getting value this week.

While the scores the past two weeks have appeared to be somewhat an anomaly, the Seahawks were trending upward in scoring even before the two blowouts. Over the past eight weeks, the Seahawks are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 33.4 ppg, trailing only New England, and they have scored 21 or more points in seven straight games after doing so only twice in their first seven games. The offense might have an edge again as the 49ers defense was on the field for 94 plays against New England.

While San Francisco's defense gets most of the pub, Seattle is ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense so the unit is just a solid and is that much better at home. The Seahawks fall into a great situation where we play on home teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Seattle Seahawks

This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Giants. New York is coming off that blowout loss in Atlanta so it needs to right the ship right now if it wants to have any chance of defending its Super Bowl title. The Giants are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFL East and a five-way tie for the second and final NFC Wild Card spot. Baltimore comes in with the better record but the Giants are the better team and in a good spot to bounce back.

It can be argued that the Ravens are also in a great spot to bounce back following their third straight loss last week against the Broncos. I disagree with that though as this is a very fragile team right now that has actually gotten away with a lot of fortunate breaks. Wins over Kansas City, Dallas and San Diego all could have gone the other way so going 3-0 right there is lucky. The Ravens have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and that is finally starting to come back to haunt them.

This is an interesting scenario where we could catch a break based on one of the early games. Should the Steelers defeat Cincinnati at home at 1:00, Baltimore locks up the division and with no chance at a first round bye, it would not be surprising to see the Ravens sit some players for at least part of this game. Obviously we can not make this play based on hoping another team wins but that could only add to the strength. Play it early as the line will likely go up quite a bit if the Steelers are winning comfortably.

After starting the season strong, Baltimore has slipped considerably. It is ranked 21st in total offense and 26th in total defense and while the scoring rankings are considerably higher, it is starting to come back more into line. The Giants have been hit or miss for the last few games but with the exception of last week, the offense has been more consistent as they are 10th overall and sixth in scoring. They have not been held to single-digits in scoring since 2009 and have not been shutout since the 2005 playoffs.

That being said, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while Baltimore is now 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after one or more consecutive losses. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 360 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being close to a touchdown per game. 10* (121) New York Giants

Carolina has been very impressive the last two weeks in its wins over Atlanta and San Diego but that makes this the perfect time to go against the Panthers. It is extremely difficult to justify a team that is 5-9 on the season to be favored over a team that is just one game worse by this many points. I have been on the Panthers quite a few times this season but not when they have been favored as they have lost four of five games outright when laying points and this is by far the largest they have put down this season.

Oakland is coming off an impressive win over Kansas City and while beating the Chiefs is far from quality, it gave this team some much needed confidence and momentum to try and close the season strong. The victory snapped a six-game losing skid for Oakland and the big factor was that it was able to run the ball which is a key to the Raiders success. They have not done very well on the east coast but considering this is the same line they got in Baltimore and Cincinnati, two playoff teams, the value is definitely there.

The Raiders rushed for a season high 203 yards against Kansas City and it was just the fifth time all season they have surpassed even 100 yards on the ground. They are 3-2 in those games but one of those losses was at Atlanta where they lost by just a field goal. Carolina's rushing defense has been great the last two weeks but it will be put to the test here with a healthy Darren McFadden which is huge for Oakland. The Panthers have allowed over 120 yards rushing in eight of their 14 games this season.

A lot of the talk now is about the resurgent Cam Newton and in all fairness, he has been exceptional over his last five games. Facing the Raiders would think to keep that going but they are coming off their best game of the season and the defense can feed off that effort. Carolina is coming off two 30-point efforts but it is still ranked 22nd in scoring offense and it hasn't been consistent enough to keep rolling like this. With a game at New Orleans to close out the season, look for a possible lookahead here as well.

The Raiders fall into a great contrarian situation here as well as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 83-46 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. Carolina is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games while the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. Too many points to pass up here. 10* (105) Oakland Raiders

I lost playing against Dallas last week but I will again fade the Cowboys here. They were fortunate to get out of last week with a win in overtime as they got a gift wrapped interception from Ben Roethlisberger and converted that into the game winning field goal. Dallas is now tied with the Giants and Redskins for first place in the NFC East so this is no doubt a must win situation and as we all know, must wins situations do not always translate into wins with the pressure involved.

We did win on New Orleans last week as the Saints shook off two poor performances, or should say Drew Brees shook off two poor performances, and easily defeated the Buccaneers. Obviously the playoffs are a very slim option for the Saints and we saw what happened when they were able to play loose. New Orleans has won the yardage battle in each of the last three games and closing the season with a big finish is a big goal right now. But the playoffs are still a slight possibility so winning is still top priority.

New Orleans needs a lot of help to get it but it really isn't very complicated. The Saints need to win this week and against Carolina next week. On top of that the Saints need Dallas to lose its final game, the Rams to lose at least once, and the Vikings, Giants, and Bears all to lose their final two games. Sure it is not very likely but with a chance still there, we will be getting a big performance out of the entire team. This includes both offense and defense, the latter showing a ton of improvement.

The Saints have now gone four straight games without allowing 400 yards on defense after allowing over 400 yards in each of their first 10 games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last seven and five of their last nine games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a three-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season. December has let them down before and I see it happening again.

New Orleans is +10 points in scoring margin and could easily be 8-6, whereas Dallas is -11 points in scoring margin and is pretty fortunate to be where it is right now. Play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams allowing a 61 percent or higher completion percentage while Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games in that same dynamic. 10* (115) New Orleans Saints

The Falcons are now a win away from clinching a first round bye in the playoffs after dismantling the Giants last Sunday. While the win was impressive, it can be chalked up as the Giants losing the game as they had opportunities to keep the game close early but missed a short third down conversion which led to a missed field goal and then missed a short fourth down conversion in the second quarter. This is obviously a big one for Atlanta but this is a big number to be putting down in this spot.

The Lions season has unraveled pretty quickly as after a 4-4 start, they have dropped six straight games and you can blame turnovers. Last week in their 28-point loss to the Cardinals, they had four turnovers including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. During the six-game losing streak, Detroit outgained four opponents by a total of 286 yards while it was outgained in the two other games by only 43 total yards so it is clearly playing better than that winless record indicates.

Motivation plays a big part in handicapping this time of year and while Atlanta has it, we have to make sure Detroit has it as well. "Everybody in the league is the same way," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said. "I dare you to find a team in the NFL that will say we're playing for next year or stuff like that. There's too much urgency in this league. There's too much at stake every single week for individuals as players, for coaches, for organizations. There's too much every single week to strive to win for."

Despite allowing 38 points last week, the Lions defense was excellent once again as it allowed just 196 total yards. Overall, the defense is ranked 12th in the NFL while the offense is ranked second and those rankings usually do not fit a team that is 4-10. Both of those rankings are better than those of the Falcons so staying on the right side of the turnovers is what needs to be done for Detroit. Heading back home after a two-game roadtrip and on the national stage will have the Lions ready.

Detroit falls into two solid situations. We play on home underdogs or pickems coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 75-35 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by 28 or more points while Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (102) Detroit Lions

We won with the Jets last Sunday against Jacksonville and we will back them again here. The two-game winning streak has put them back in the hunt for the playoffs and with a very favorable schedule to close out, they are in excellent shape but will obviously still need some help along the way. The public is still fading this team which is just fine as it gives us good value with the number in what is a must win spot. Normally, cases like that lead to inflated numbers but that is not the case here.

Tennessee lost its third straight game last week at Indianapolis and it has dropped five of its last six games to fall out of the playoff picture. The Titans will no doubt try and bring their A game here with this game being on national television but the problem is they don't have much of an A game. They have struggled on both sides of the ball but turnovers remain the biggest factor in their struggles as their 26 giveaways are tied for third most in the AFC.

The Jets are no stranger to turnovers either but Tennessee has just 16 takeaways with is fifth fewest in the conference. New York has a chance to get the offense going once again as the titans are ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense and 31st in points allowed. I expected a bigger game from Mark Sanchez last week but we didn't get it but now he faces a unit ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in passing ypa allowed. The return of Braylon Edwards could be a huge boost as he is expected to play right away.

New York still possesses a stout defense as it is ranked eighth overall and while the rushing defense has been a weakness, the Titans have not been able to do much of late. Running back Chris Johnson looked like he was finally out of his slump but he has been held to 175 yards on 53 carries (3.3 ypc) while failing to reach the end zone during the Titans' three-game slide. New York's defense has been excellent the past two weeks against the NFL's two worst offenses.

The Jets fall into a great league-wide situation here as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more total ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 total ypg. This situation is 51-26 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 2-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and is 5-23-1 ATS in its last 29 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. The Jets playoff hopes stay alive. 10* (331) New York Jets

The Patriots were three-point favorites over the 49ers prior to the game against Houston and now the line has increased significantly. It's a pretty safe reason why. New England looked dominant against Houston on Monday night and it will be a very heavy bet team again this week. As of Wednesday morning, over two-thirds of the action is on the Patriots according to offshore reports and while we won with them against the Texans, we will be going against them here as value has clearly hit the side of the 49ers.

San Francisco is coming off a win over Miami on Sunday and now it heads east for what has turned into a big game for both sides. The Patriots are still in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC as they own wins over both Denver and Houston, the two teams that are fighting for the top spot. On the other side, this is far from meaningless for the 49ers as they have a game at Seattle next week so should they lose here, they could be just a half-game up going into next week with the division on the line.

While the Patriots were able to shred through the Houston defense on Monday, things will not be as easy here. The Texans have struggled this season against good passing teams but San Francisco is much different. Houston is 19th against the pass while San Francisco is second in that category as well as first in points allowed, ypa passing, and rushing touchdowns allowed while ranked second in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense. New England will have a tough time here.

The 49ers offense is not as strong but it doesn't need to be when the defense is playing at such a high level and we will see that in this spotlight game. San Francisco is 12th in total offense and 13th in scoring offense so it is an above average unit and will face a Patriots defense that has improved in points allowed over the last few games but are still ranked 26th in total defense. The 49ers will have success running the ball as New England has allowed 100 or more yards rushing in seven straight games.

San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 ypg or more, 9-1 ATS against teams allowing 7.0 or more ypa passing and 14-4 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Also, we play on teams in the second half of the season allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (329) San Francisco 49ers

The Steelers lost a big game last week against the Chargers and it was one they could have done without. Pittsburgh is now tied with the Bengals for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC with the Jets just one game back so now it is dealing with an absolute must win scenario. The good news is that the Steelers final two games are at home against the Bengals and Browns but neither of those games are gimmies anymore. Expect a big bounceback effort from Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Dallas played a very courageous game in Cincinnati last week following the tragedy that took place the previous morning. The Cowboys rallied late for the victory and while a playoff push is a necessity, this is not going to be an easy spot. Similar to the Chiefs two weeks ago when they came together in the midst of a tragedy and won and then laid an egg the following week, I can see the same happening here as the emotions of what transpired is too much to overcome the following week.

After a four-game winning streak, the Steelers have dropped three of its last four games but they outgained their opponent in each of those games. They have been outgained only twice all season and on the year, they are outgaining opponents by 79.4 ypg so they are definitely playing better than their record indicated. The difference? Turnovers. Pittsburgh has not won the turnover battle since Week Five against the Eagles as they have lost the turnover battle six times and tied it three times in the last nine games.

The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a two-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season, which they will be striving for this week. The offense gained just 288 total yards against the Bengals last week and now they face a Steelers defense that is ranked first in the NFL, yielding just 262.4 ypg and have to go on without leading receiver Dez Bryant.

The Steelers opened as underdogs and were quickly bet up to favorites with early money. It is definitely the right move and coaching will be a big factor in this game as Mike Tomlin is clearly better than Jason Garrett. Case in point, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss while the Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. That is based on preparation in the situation and the Steelers once again will have the significant edge. 10* (325) Pittsburgh Steelers

Arizona got embarrassed last Sunday in Seattle 58-0 and after starting the season 4-0, the Cardinals have dropped their last nine games and put head coach Ken Whisenhunt on the hot seat. Not many people will be touching the Cardinals this week after getting outgained by 339 total yards but that is exactly why we will be on them because it sets up the typical 'bounce' angle in the NFL as well as provide significant line value. The number here is an overreaction to that blowout loss.

The overreaction is proven by the fact that thee is no way Detroit should be favored no the road by this many points over any team. Sure the talent is there but the Lions do not know how to win at this point as they have lost five straight games including the last three by a single possession. Coming off three straight home games followed by a game at rival Green Bay where they have not won in over two decades, this team that has no hopes for the playoffs has no interest in this game whatsoever.

This game reminds me a lot of the Tennessee game at New England back in 2009. The Titans were pounded 59-0 by the Patriots to fall to 0-6 and Tennessee came back the following week to win at home over Jacksonville by 17 points. Obviously this game cannot predict any future outcomes but it gives an example of what players are capable of doing in this league after getting shown up, and badly for that matter. Egos go a long way in this game and the Cardinals do no want theirs bruised again.

As far as the matchup itself goes, the Lions played one of their best defensive games of the season but we can thank the weather partly for that. This is a solid defense that is ranked 13th in the NFL in total defense but they still allow a ton of points as they are 26th in scoring. Arizona has a great opportunity to bust out on offense, something that has not happened in a while. The Detroit offense is potent as we all know but Arizona is a respectable 12th in total defense and after last week, that unit will be ready to play.

The offense for Arizona is in a great spot as it is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Lions are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 17 ppg or less. Also we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (324) Arizona Cardinals

Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans come into this game riding three-game losing streaks so clearly there is no momentum on either side. While the Buccaneers have lost their three games by a combined 11 points and the Saints have lost their three games by a combined 45 points, it is the latter which has actually been playing better. New Orleans outgained both the Falcons and Giants and are +53.7 ypg in those contests while Tampa Bay was outgained in all three and by an average of 59.3 ypg.

Tampa Bay is still clinging on to a small hope of making the playoffs so this is obviously a must win situation. But coming off that loss against Philadelphia last week is devastating as it looked as though the Buccaneers had the game locked up. Not so much. The defense, which has actually been playing pretty well, fell apart at the worst possible time against the Eagles and now they will be facing Drew Brees who has put up a combined passer rating of 112.7, his worst two-game total since 2007.

It is hard to explain the struggles of Brees but it is not lack of effort and you can just see that he is clearly frustrated over his performances. In the last three games, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions on 43 attempts of more than 10 yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But two of those games were on the road and the other was against the 49ers which have the second best total defense as well as the second best passing defense in the NFL. We will see a rebound here at home.

While many will argue it has been the defense on top of it, turnovers have been the Saints undoing the last two games as they have a 9-3 disadvantage in that category. The defense has actually been fairly good as after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of its first 10 games, New Orleans has allowed fewer than 400 yards in each of its last three games, giving up just 350.7 ypg over that stretch. That certainly is not the best average but from what it was, it is a massive improvement.

While the Saints playoff hopes are done, expect them to continue to play hard, especially at home as they know the fans deserve it. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg while the Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg. Also, the Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games as favorites of less than a touchdown and 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after gaining 400 or more ypg over their last three games. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints

The Eagles looked dead on Sunday as they trailed the Buccaneers by 11 points but rallied to pull out a much needed win which ended their eight-game losing skid. They easily could have folded then they allowed 21 unanswered points but they did not give up and played hard right to the end and that is a big part of the play here. Obviously the playoffs are out but they gained some renewed confidence and the goal now is to finish strong. Playing with no pressure means playing loose which is always an advantage.

The Bengals are coming off a devastating loss against the Cowboys to fall to 7-6 and now must travel on a short week. Cincinnati had a four-game winning streak prior to the loss and things are not looking very good with the remainder of the schedule as it closes with games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Bengals are still in the mix for grabbing a Wild Card spot but the Sunday loss may have told us that they are not as good as was perceived when they were riding that winning streak.

The Eagles won on Sunday despite losing the turnover battle for the 10th time in 13 games this season. The good news is that they only turned it over once but it was the fifth consecutive game that Philadelphia's defense did not have a takeaway and while that is not a good thing, it is one of those streaks that will not last the rest of the season and Cincinnati has given it up 21 times on the year. The Eagles allowed just 314 total yards against Tampa Bay.

Offensively, Philadelphia got a great game out of quarterback Nick Foles which was a huge step for the rookie and one that he can build on. He threw for two touchdowns in the final four minutes to overcome that 11-point deficit, finishing with an Eagles' rookie-record 32 completions and 381 yards. The Bengals defense has gone four straight games without allowing 300 yards but playing at that high level is tough to do and playing on the short week makes it even more difficult.

The Eagles played on Sunday like we thought they were going to play all season as there was more energy, more hustle and more heart in this game than they've shown for weeks. Now they will be bringing that same energy home where they have not won since September 30th against the Giants. The Eagles go from an eight-point road underdog to a three-point home underdog so they are definitely on the value side with this number. Expect to see another very inspired effort on Thursday. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles

This is arguably the best Monday night matchup of the season thus far and this one will go a long way in playoff seedings. Both Houston and New England clinched playoff berths last week, the Patriots clinching the division and the Texans now one win away from the division title. This game obviously means a lot to both sides so motivation will not be an issue but the situation is much better for New England as it heads home after a road win while Houston is playing its third straight road contest.

The Patriots are riding a six-game winning streak and while the opposition has been average, they will be out to prove something here. Their last real quality win came here against Denver and that was the last time the Broncos lost so that definitely says something. The three losses for New England this year all could have been wins as they lost those games by a combined four points. All three losses came down to the final minute with two of those decided on last second field goals.

The Texans share the best record in the NFL with Atlanta as a loss to Green Bay is the only blemish on the card. That game can definitely tell us something as Houston struggled against a potent offense in the Packers and it also struggled against the Lions on Thanksgiving as it snuck out a win there. The Texans will be facing another strong offense here as the Patriot lead the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense and the banged up defense could be in for another long night.

While the Patriots offense is the best, the defense is far from it as it is ranked 26th in total defense. But the defense thrives on turnovers as its 33 takeaways easily lead the AFC and their +24 turnover difference is by far the best in football. That has limited opposing teams from scoring much as New England is a respectable 14th in scoring defense. Houston's offense is no joke but gaining 1,154 yards and 77 points in consecutive games against Jacksonville and Detroit has skewed the numbers.

Coming off a divisional win is no letdown for New England as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a divisional win and the Patriots have covered four straight Monday night games. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. The Patriots prove they are still the team to beat in the AFC. 10* (134) New England Patriots

I won with Washington on Monday night and that was clearly a huge win for the Redskins as they pulled to within just one game of the Giants in the NFC East. They remain at home which may seem like a good spot but I think Washington has itself in a tough one based on the opposition. The Redskins are coming off three straight victories and if that doesn't spell letdown, nothing does. Yes, there is a lot on the line so a letdown may be the wrong term but this will be tough to come back from.

Baltimore is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh and while it still has a two-game lead in the AFC North, with Pittsburgh back home against San Diego, a loss here from the Ravens will most likely mean that lead is trimmed to just one game. The Ravens have won three straight games on the road and they know they need to keep the pedal down with Ben Roethlisberger on his way back very shortly. With a game at home against Denver coming up, Baltimore knows it needs this one.

The Ravens had won four straight games prior to the Steelers loss and they have followed up each of their previous two losses with wins. The offense has taken a step back the last three games as they have averaged just 16.3 ppg and have been held to fewer than 300 yards in two of those games. Now Baltimore gets to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Redskins are ranked 29th in total defense and 23rd in scoring defense. A great effort last week against New York will not be duplicated again.

The Washington offense has been solid all season with RGIII becoming a legitimate star in this league. Baltimore's defense has not played that well this season but it has played a lot better since its bye week. After allowing 23 ppg and 400 ypg through its first seven games, the Ravens have allowed just 16.2 ppg and 333.4 ypg over their last five games which is a huge recovery. There is a lot of pride with this unit just because they are getting older doesn't mean that they cannot still compete.

Terrell Suggs is a gametime decision this week. The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off an upset loss as a home favorite and they fall into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss by three points or less, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. A great spot catching Washington in both a physical and emotional letdown. 10* (105) Baltimore Ravens

Carolina was in a very tough spot last week having to go to Kansas City and play a game a day after tragedy hit the Chiefs. We won with Kansas City in that game and the emotions from it carries that team through. The opposite was the case for the Panthers as they were put into a situation no team wants to be in. They were coming off a big Monday night road win at Philadelphia on top of it so the short week didn't help matters. Now back home, look for a full out effort.

The Falcons got away with another one. This team is 11-1 and a lot of that has been done with smoke and mirrors and fortunate bounces. They were outgained by 153 yards against the Saints last Thursday but managed to pick off Drew Brees five times. Those throws were bad ones too so the credit cannot solely go to the defense as Brees was clearly not himself. There is still a lot at stake for Atlanta as far as playoff seeding and such but coming off a division clinching win is tough to recover from.

Carolina was able to outgain Kansas City last week but it was unable to match the Chiefs energy. The Panthers have now outgained four of their last seven opponents but only have two wins to show for it. Closing has been a big issue as in their last seven losses, six have been by six points or less including one in overtime. Carolina has been painfully close at home to being a lot better but a 1-5 record is what has put them down to where they are right now but they continue to play hard.

The defense will have to play a big game in order to slow down the Falcons offense but this defense has played a lot better. The Panthers are ranked 14th in total defense and after allowing more than 400 yards three times in their first four games, they have allowed 400 yards only once since. After defeating the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Thursday, Falcons coach Mike Smith gave the team four days off and the gameplanning for this game did not begin until Wednesday.

The first meeting was a close one on Atlanta as the Panthers lost on a 40-yard field goal with five second left and they falls into two successful revenge spots. We play on teams that are revenging a loss by three points or less, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Also we play on home teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) Carolina Panthers

You have to give Kansas City a lot of credit for not only playing last week after the Jovan Belcher tragedy, but going out and winning. A lot of times in sports, emotions take over and that is what happened last week with the Chiefs as they went out and snapped their eight-game losing streak. At the same time though, those emotions can do a complete reversal and I expect that to happen this week. This team is emotionally spent and playing this week is going to be a lot tougher than last week.

After starting the season 0-5, the Browns have been playing a lot better as they are 4-3 over their last seven games. Three of those victories came against the Bengals, Chargers and Steelers so it isn't like that have been beating up on the NFL doormats although Kansas City can certainly fit into that category. Cleveland has won two straight games and it has been extremely competitive at home all season with a 3-3 record while getting outscored by just 0.6 ppg.

The Chiefs are coming off two straight draining games as the week prior, they lost a close game at home against rival Denver so now hitting the road after three straight home games, a loss against Cincinnati started the homestand, is a challenge. To their credit, they have put up some good games on the road including at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans but they have also put up some real duds with three of the four losses coming by 18, 28 and 18 points.

Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked 26th against the run, giving up 129.3 ypg. They rank ninth against the pass, giving up 219.9 ypg, but it is not necessarily because of stellar work. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 2,774 yards at a 60.3 completion rate, averaged 8.3 yards per pass and posted a 103.0 rating. They have thrown for 25 touchdowns and been intercepted seven times. The Browns should have no problem moving the ball as the offensive is coming off its best game of the season with 475 yards.

This is a big number for the Browns to be laying but I feel it is completely justified based on the situation. They have been an underdog in every one of their previous home games but considering the last four have been against quality opponents (yes at the time San Diego was quality), that just makes sense. The Browns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a win. 10* (108) Cleveland Browns

I was originally staying away from this game based on the fact the Jets were likely going to start Greg McElroy as I honestly thought we had seen the last of Mark Sanchez in a Jets uniform. Well, he was just recently named the starter once again and I think we are going to see one of his best efforts of the season. People are so down on him right now which makes him in a perfect take situation. "It was probably the worst and best experience of my life," Sanchez said Wednesday, reflecting on last Sunday's benching.

Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Buffalo on a very rainy day so it is hard to take a lot out of that game because of the bad weather. What can be taken out of it though is the fact that the Jaguars continue to get stung by the injury bug. Starting running back Rashad Jennings and starting wide receiver Cecil Shorts both suffered concussions last week and both are likely out this week which depletes and already poor offense. Jacksonville is ranked 31st in total offense and 30th in scoring offense.

It may be tough for some to hear me defend Sanchez but I'm going to. The benching was a very good thing as it should serve as a huge motivator for him. In addition, he has played against some very tough defenses as in his 12 starts, he has faced defenses ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 12th in half of those. The Jets have averaged 11.3 ppg in those games. In the other games, New York has put up 26.7 ppg and considering the Jaguars are ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in scoring defense, the Jets offense should roll.

The Jets are having a rough season no doubt but to their credit, they have played the league's 2nd toughest schedule. They have faced five teams in the top ten and seven teams in the top 16, going 0-5 and 1-6 respectively so they are 4-1 against the bottom half of the NFL. Jacksonville certainly falls into that category. Granted, elite teams are capable of defeating other elite teams in the NFL but no one here is calling the Jets elite. But they are good enough the steamroll one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Playing road favorites in the NFL is not going to be a winning proposition over the long haul but some spots it is deemed that way when the situation arises and this is one of those. Additionally, the Jets fall into a solid situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Don't be surprised to see one of the best efforts of the season from New York this week. 10* (113) New York Jets

Denver has won seven straight games and is definitely poised to give the AFC leaders a run come playoff time. With won come popularity, with popularity comes betting attraction and with betting attraction comes inflated lines. Yes, Denver is playing great and Oakland is far from it but this line is extremely overpriced. Getting anything over a touchdown at home is huge in this league and that is proven by home underdogs of 8 points or more are 27-3 ATS over the last four years.

The Raiders are coming off another tough loss as they lost by three points against the Browns to make it five straight defeats going back to the start of November. They have not been playing that badly as they have outgained five of their last eight opponents and on the season they are getting outgained by only 25.2 ppg which is very respectable for a team with their record. The issue has been miscues as Oakland has lost the turnover battle in four of its last five games.

Denver won the first meeting in this series and it wasn't even close as the Broncos won by 31 points while outgaining Oakland by 266 total yards. Despite losing the next game against the Patriots, that first meeting against Oakland seemed to have set a spark and got them rolling after a 1-2 start to the season. This is a divisional rivalry and even though one team is rolling and the other is reeling, records can be tossed out the door and I expect the Raiders to give all they have to get their revenge on national television.

Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, the former Broncos defensive coordinator, left the team immediately after the Cleveland game to be with his father who eventually passed away on Tuesday. If there ever is a time for a team to come together and win one for their coach, this is the time. With the short week, the position coaches had begun some of the scouting of the Broncos last week to allow the coordinators to put together the game plan on Sunday night and Monday. Therefore there is not a big disadvantage with Allen being out.

Oakland has numerous situations on its side in this game and one of the best is to play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75%) since 1983. Additionally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games against teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg while the Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 divisional games. 10* (102) Oakland Raiders

The Giants won the first meeting in a wild game as they scored a 77-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 remaining after Washington had just taken the lead less that 20 seconds prior. Obviously the Redskins want revenge from that game but more important they need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Sitting at 5-6, they are a game out of the NFC's second Wild Card spot heading into Sunday and just as important, a victory puts them just a game behind New York in the NFC East.

The Giants looked great last week coming out of the bye and people will be riding them based on past success this time of year. Also, they have been great on the road the last couple years but the line is totally overinflated here. New York was favored by six and a half points in that first meeting at home and not a lot has changed since then so if anything, this game should be a pickem. Going against the masses here as this line has been driven up to provide a great home underdog opportunity.

New York has succeeded this season with a lot due to turnovers. The Giants have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games and that has been a huge part to why they are fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and ninth in the NFL in scoring defense. They are 10th in total offense and just 23rd in total defense and that is where the Redskins can take advantage. Holding Green Bay to 317 yards and 10 points was a huge effort but repeating that will be a challenge here.

The Redskins offense has thrived with RGIII behind center as they are sixth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense. Those two rankings are so close and so good because they do not turn the ball over. Washington has given it up only once over its last four games and for the season its 10 giveaways are the fewest in the NFC and third in the NFL. The defense was riddled with injuries early in the season but they have been playing a lot but recently.

Washington can take advantage it is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing six or more yppl. Additionally, the Redskins fall into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. Also, the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* (368) Washington Redskins

Houston is coming off two straight overtime wins which can be looked at in two different ways. It can bring a huge amount of confidence or it can produce a pretty big letdown. In the Texans case, I feel it is the latter. They were winning early in the season and winning these tight games is more of a sigh of relief than anything and it shows that they are not playing at a high level despite being 10-1. That record plays into the lines going forward and we are again catching a good number playing against Houston.

When Jake Locker came back into the lineup, the Titans looked like a different team two games ago even though he showed some rust. He had a much more productive game against Jacksonville last week but two interceptions hurt him. Still, Tennessee scored 56 points the last two games while outgaining both opponents which was the first time it has outgained consecutive opponents this season. Better yet, both of those games were on the road so the Titans should have some extra confidence going into this revenge game.

Tennessee was thumped in Houston in the first meeting by 24 points even though it outgained the Texans by 28 yards. The difference there was turnovers as the Titans lost the turnover battle 3-0 and two of those were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. That was the game that Locker was hurt in and he missed most of that game and five others because of a separated non-throwing shoulder. The offenses needed a boost and has gotten it and now playing a very banged up Texans defense.

If coming off two consecutive overtime wins wasn't bad enough, Houston has a game at New England next Monday night so this is a very tough sandwich situation. Even throw in the previous week's hard fought win at Chicago and that adds up to a brutal three-game stretch. Head coach Gary Kubiak summed it up perfectly. "It's been very taxing on the team. Winning was so important, of course. To come out of there (Detroit) with a win because of where we're at and some of the issues we have, it was exceptional."

As mentioned, this is a revenge game for Tennessee and it falls into a terrific revenge situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Upset alert right here. 10* (356) Tennessee Titans

The Lions have dropped two brutal home games in a row to fall to 4-7 and are now clinging by a thread in hopes of the playoffs. There is a three-way tie for the second Wild Card spot at 6-5 so it is going to take a lot of winning and a lot of help to get it done. This is now a must win game or the season will officially be done for Detroit as three of its final four games are against the Packers, Falcons and Bears. The extra time off from Thanksgiving to go along with no travel should help.

Indianapolis won against last week to improve to 7-4 and it currently sits in the first Wild Card spot in the AFC. That win was at home though where the Colts are 5-1 compared to just 2-3 on the road with the victories coming at Jacksonville and Tennessee and it is no coincidence that those were divisional wins. Those wins happened to follow home wins but the last time the Colts won at home and a divisional game was not on deck resulted in a 35-9 loss at New York to the Jets.

This is the third straight home game for the Lions and it falls into a similar situation that Cincinnati was in three weeks ago. Since 1985 there have been 180 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 18 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year. Cincinnati defeated the Giants in Week 10 after dropping the first two games of its homestand.

The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense but they have killed themselves with turnovers which seems to be a common theme with all of these losing teams. The good news here though is that Indianapolis does not know how to take the ball away as it dead last in the NFL with just seven takeaways. The Lions should no problem moving the ball against the 20th ranked defense and scoring against the 22nd ranked defense in passing touchdowns allowed.

Detroit's defense has struggled over the last three games but it should clamp down here. Andrew Luck is a solid rookie quarterback but the Colts also turn the ball over on offense which has cut into their scoring as they are 21st in scoring offense. We play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining opponents by 40 to 100 going up against teams with a yardage margin between +/- 40 ypg, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (77 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (350) Detroit Lions

While many saw a closer game or a high scoring game, not many saw the Packers offense get completely shutdown by the Giants last week. Green Bay managed only 10 points which was not only a season low but it was the fewest amount of points scored in its last 32 games, a stretch that goes back to the final game of the 2010 regular season. The Packers scored fewer than 10 points twice prior that season and followed that up with high scoring games of 52 and 58 points next time out.

The Vikings are also coming off a game where they scored only 10 points which is also a season low for them. Minnesota was coming off three straight games that went over the total and while the offense played its part, it was the defense that really played poorly as the Vikings allowed an average of 30 ppg. Now they catch the Packers off their worst output of the season as well as putting up just 314 and 317 total yards the last two games which will spell some serious trouble for the Vikings defense.

Scoring on the road has been a challenge for Minnesota as it is averaging 19.2 ppg but it has put up at least 20 points in four of its five of its road games and that number should be more than enough to push this one over. The Vikings passing offense has had its problems over the last few games as Christian Ponder has been playing poorly but Green Bay has the 22nd ranked passing defense in the NFL and while Green Bay's rushing defense is better, Minnesota counters that with Adrian Peterson.

On top of that, the Packers will be without defensive end C.J. Wilson, a cornerstone of their run defense. And the news is still bad at the other two levels as linebacker Clay Matthews is likely out one more week while the secondary will be shorthanded again this week with Charles Woodson and Sam Shields remaining out. That could mean some needed balance in the Vikings offense and a chance to have a much better game than the seven points they scored here last November.

Historical scenarios are on our side here also as Green Bay is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or higher and 6-0 to the over in its last six home games in the second half of the season. Also, the Packers are 4-0 to the over in their last four games following an ATS loss while the Vikings are 4-0 to the over in their last four games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. 10* Over (341) Minnesota Vikings/(342) Green Bay Packers

Even though the Saints lost on Sunday against San Francisco, their playoff chances remained pretty much unchanged. The Falcons defeated the Buccaneers, the Dolphins defeated the Seahawks, and the Bears knocked off the Vikings which leaves New Orleans still just a game back in the Wild Card race but they hold the tiebreaker over all three. A win here is huge as it notches another conference win and those three other teams are all playing games on the road against playoff caliber teams as well.

The Falcons are coming off another close win as they defeated Tampa Bay on the road in a big divisional game, snapping the Buccaneers four-game winning streak. Atlanta has now played three straight games where it easily could have lost but was able to pull out the victory in two of those. The Falcons did lose the first of the three games at New Orleans and while they will be out for revenge here, it is not going to easy at all as the Saints are still playing at a high level.

Despite hanging with the 49ers for the first half this past Sunday, long downfield drives by San Francisco and two interceptions from Drew Brees on consecutive passes were enough to seal the deal for New Orleans. The Saints were held to just 290 yards of total offense which comes as no surprise as the 49ers defense is ranked second overall and first in scoring. The Falcons are not nearly as good as they are 15th in total defense in the NFL and allowed 440 total yards in the first meeting.

Obviously the Saints defense has some issues as they are ranked dead last in the league in total defense. They thing is though they have gotten better as the season has gone on as they are becoming more familiar with Steve Spagnuolo's defense as it is the first season with it. After allowing 459 or more yards in five of the first seven games, New Orleans has not yielded that amount in any of its last four games, giving up an average of 420 ypg including a season low 375 yards against the 49ers.

The Saints have been able to take advantage of bad teams in the past as they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in the second half of the season against teams allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse and 8-0 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are +/- 0.4 in yppl margin against teams that are -0.4 to -1 in yppl margin. This situation is 78-39 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints

Carolina has gone over in two straight games but both of those games were at home against a couple teams whose offenses have been piling up the points. The same cannot be said for the Eagles which will again be without Michael Vick and will also be missing running back LeSean McCoy. Philadelphia managed only six points last week against the Redskins with Nick Foles under center and while the Panthers defense is far from a stout unit, expect the Eagles to continue their struggles on offense.

This is a contrarian under call against the Eagles defense which has been lit up for 31, 38, 28 and 30 points over their last four games. However this is the type of game that a defense that has been gashed tends to step up in big situations and a Monday night game can certainly qualify. The Panthers offense has had their struggles this season as they are 22nd overall and 27th in scoring. They have been held to 331 yards or less in five of their last six games and seven times overall on the season.

On the other side, the Panthers want to step up as well. Defensive end Charles Johnson said the Panthers want to prove a point Monday regardless of who plays quarterback for the Eagles. "Hopefully, we can show up and show out. When the lights come on, you should play your butt off. The whole world's watching, so just leave it all out on the line," Johnson said. "We definitely have to show the world what Carolina Panthers defense is about. Hopefully, we can do that and come out with a W."

While the Eagles have two big names out on offense, they have been bad to begin with. They are 14th overall in total offense but 31st in scoring offense and a lot of that has been because of turnovers. Philadelphia has scored more than 23 points only once this year and has tallied 17 points or less in six of ten games on the season. History shows the struggles will go on as the Eagles are 12-3 to the under in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less.

Additionally, the Eagles are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games while Carolina is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games coming off a home loss against a division rival. Also, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 24-7 to the under (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (245) Carolina Panthers/(246) Philadelphia Eagles

The Chargers got us a win last week but chalked up another loss for them as they fell to 4-6 and the playoffs are looking dimmer and dimmer. They trail the Wild Card leaders by two games so there is still hope but they cannot afford to lose here, especially on their home field. Typically San Diego would be favored here but after losing five of six games, we are getting a very good number with the Chargers. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and they know what is at stake here.

The Ravens won a tough game at Pittsburgh on Sunday night and not only does that setup a letdown spot here, they have a home game against Pittsburgh on deck. Traveling across country only adds to the sandwich spot for a Baltimore team that is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home. The Ravens are 3-2 on the highway and prior to the win over the Steelers, the other two wins came at Cleveland and Kansas City which are a combined 3-17. Baltimore has been outgained in six straight games.

The Chargers have a great situation on their side as we play against favorites with defense that is allowing 130 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-29 ATS (63.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (238) San Diego Chargers

We snuck out a win against Denver last week with the Chargers and we will go against the Broncos again here as they are completely overvalued. Yes, they are playing some of the best football in the NFL and because it is no secret, the lines are showing it. Denver has won five straight games by scoring more than 30 points each time and even the best NFL teams ever cannot keep that up. The Broncos have won their last three road games and this is the spot for that to come to an end.

Kansas City is playing just the opposite as it has dropped seven straight games and has yet to win at home this season, going 0-5. The Chiefs are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Bengals but we can give them a pardon as they were coming off a short week following a very tough loss in overtime at Pittsburgh. Now playing a divisional game, they step up once again. Kansas City falls into a spectacular situation as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after seven or more consecutive losses going up against teams after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (228) Kansas City Chiefs

The Falcons got off to an 8-0 start before dropping their first game in New Orleans two weeks ago. It took them a while to show up last week against Arizona but eventually they did and snuck out with a four-point win. Those two effort will have them more than ready for what has turned into a bog divisional game. Atlanta actually outgained the Cardinals last week and the Saints prior to that and has now won the yardage battle in seven of it last eight games. Prior to New Orleans, the four road wins were by an average of 14.8 ppg.

Tampa Bay is playing some of the best football in the league right now as it has won and covered four straight games. That is keeping this line very reasonable as a Falcons win likely means a cover as well. The Buccaneers got away with a game last week in Carolina as it rallied from an 11-point deficit to eventually take the game in overtime. It is hard to call this a letdown situation facing the division leaders but it surely puts Tampa Bay in a tough spot and even more so by trying to keep its winning streak alive.

The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having won four out of their last five games, in November games. This situation is 41-13 ATS (75.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (233) Atlanta Falcons

The Patriot offense was on display again this past week as they hung 59 points on the Colts in a 35-point win. However the score is deceiving as two touchdowns came on interception returns and another on a punt return so it wasn't all offense that got it done. New England has gone over the total in eight straight games and this signals the time to go against that. This total has dropped from its opening but with it being New England in primetime, expect this one to rise once we get closer to kickoff.

The Jets halted their three-game losing streak as they won by 14 points over the Rams despite outgaining St. Louis by just eight total yards. The game went over the total and now the Jets are hit with their biggest O/U of the season so we are seeing value the other way. The defense has allowed fewer than 300 yards in three of its last five games so they are more than capable of slowing the Patriots offense down. New York is still a dismal 30th in the NFL in total offense. Hold off until later in the week to hit this under as it should rise again as mentioned. 10* Under (107) New England Patriots/(108) New York Jets

Dallas got another scare from an inferior opponent as it had to rally from a 13-0 halftime deficit to defeat Cleveland in overtime. The Cowboys would have taken a huge hit with a loss but they improved to 5-5 and get to remain home for their annual Thanksgiving game. The win was far from impressive and preparing for the Redskins will be tough but I think that victory is going to spark them this week. Dallas has won six of the last seven Thanksgiving Day games with the lone loss coming when Tony Romo was out.

Washington looked very impressive against the Eagles as they snapped their three-game losing streak. However you want to look at it though, the Eagles were not ready to play and they have given up on the season so the win cannot be perceived as good as it may look. Robert Griffin III had an outstanding game with just one incompletion and five touchdowns and while the defense allowed just six points, it is still 26th overall and 25th in points allowed. The short week will be too much for Washington here. 10* (106) Dallas Cowboys

Last night we saw how hard the Steelers played without their starting quarterback as the rest of the team stepped up and nearly defeated the Ravens. They should have as they outgained Baltimore 311-200 as a punt return touchdown was the difference. Flash forward to tonight and we are seeing a very similar situation where the Bears will be without their starting quarterback as Jason Campbell will be starting in place of Jay Cutler so expect a similar step up in effort from the rest of the team.

Campbell is an established quarterback so it is not like Chicago is going with an unseasoned rookie or young player with no experience. Last season, the Bears went from 7-3 and looking toward the playoffs to losing five of their final six to finish 8-8 and that's why they brought in Campbell in the offseason. The Bears are in fine shape here because of their defense. They are fifth overall and second in points allowed and they are coming off a very impressive showing against the Texans as they allowed only 215 total yards.

Campbell went 10-5 over his last 15 starts with the Oakland Raiders, completing 60.3 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns, eight interceptions and an 89.6 passer rating. Still, it will be important for the Bears to establish their running game with Matt Forte who is averaging 4.7 ypc, just 0.2 off his career best from last season, and he's on pace for 1,028 yards. Getting him going will be big as it will take a lot of pressure off Campbell and help to keep the 49ers defense off balance.

The 49ers had allowed just one opposing running back to top 100 yards in a span of 45 regular-season games before a recent stretch that began last month. In the last four games, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw, the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch and Rams' Steven Jackson have gone over 100 against the 49ers. Last week, the Rams seemed to physically win in the trenches versus the usually physical 49ers and were very creative in their play calling and the Bears obviously are just as physical.

San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense as it is ranked 13th overall and 14th in scoring and the only reason the rankings are that high is because of the game against the Bills where they scored 45 points and gained 621 yards on offense. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after having won two out of their last three games while going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. A low scoring game is in our favor with the undervalued Bears in this one.

Update: San Francisco announced this afternoon that Alex Smith will not play tonight which will further hinder the offense. The line has dropped so for those who locked it in early, good job. This is still a play however as the line is sitting at 3.5 across the board as of 2:45 ET. 10* (435) Chicago Bears

The Broncos have killed us the last two weeks as they were able to win and cover as road favorites with the public going along for the ride. The same public will not be jumping off the Denver bandwagon just yet and because of that, the books had to set a line that is substantially overinflated. It opened at -7 and has already been bet up to -7.5 and even -8 in some places. This is roughly a nine-point swing from the first meeting when Denver came back from a 24-0 deficit to win on Monday night.

The Chargers are coming off a loss, their fourth defeat in their last five games after a 3-1 start. Sitting at 4-5, this is a must win game for San Diego. If it loses, it trails the Broncos by three games in the AFC West and it is essentially four games because of the head-to-head series loss. A 3-6 record is also not in a very position for the AFC Wild Card and although the Chargers would not be eliminated, a 5-5 record and a game behind Denver in the division looks a lot better.

Similar to some other games, the Chargers goal is to slow this game down to shorten and not get into a track meet with Denver. They can do this by running the ball more frequent. The running game has been very good for the most part as they have surpassed 100 yards on the ground in seven of their last eight games. Denver's rushing defense is decent but it is not a top ten unit and defensive end Elvis Dumervil is questionable for this game and his absence would be big although we cannot count on it officially.

The Chargers do not want to get into a track meet as mentioned but they still have a very solid defense that has been playing especially well of late. San Diego is seventh in the NFL in total defense and they have allowed fewer than 300 yards in three straight games. Granted, Denver is a much stronger offense than what it has seen but the Chargers are allowing a respectable 7.1 ypa. Peyton Manning ripped them apart in the second half of the first meeting so expect the correct adjustments to be made.

San Diego falls into a very simple yet effective dynamic where we play on road underdogs coming off a road loss in the second half of the season. This situation is 100-50 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos offense is clicking as they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games and that is a great scenario to go against and Denver itself is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in three straight games. Look for a close game in this big divisional battle. 10* (431) San Diego Chargers

The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing performance in Baltimore as they lost 55-20 but that means they are filled with value this week. Oakland actually outgained Baltimore in that game so it wasn't quite as bad as the final score shows but that is what most people pay attention to. Now Oakland heads home where it is 2-2 with wins in two of its last three games and it has the ability to keep up with the Saints offense if it comes down to that which it may not even have to.

New Orleans accomplished exactly what it wanted to do and that is hand the hated Falcons their first loss of the season. The goalline stand to end the game was impressive as the defense has been a sieve all season and that stop is still being celebrated. Now the Saints hit the road out west where they are 1-3 on the season and overvalued once again. Despite winning four of its last five games, New Orleans has been outgained in all five of those games as well as seven of nine games on the season.

The Saints offense is again playing at a high level so the key for that will be for the Raiders to keep them off the field. They can accomplish this by coming with a gameplan to manufacture a strong running game. Oakland has been very inconsistent in running the ball this year as it couldn't even get to 100 yards in the last two games combined. That changes here though as New Orleans has the worst rushing defense in the NFL and it has surrendered over 200 yards rushing on four different occasions.

When they do need to pass the ball, the Raiders have been very good this year as they are fifth in the NFL is passing offense. Carson Palmer has done a great job with what he has and Oakland has a great downfield passing attack with Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey as both are averaging in excess of 15 yards per catch. While the Saints cannot spot the run, they are also having trouble stopping opposing quarterbacks as they are 31st in passing defense and allow a league-worst 104.4 passer rating.

Oakland gave up a ton of points last week but teams tend to bounce back as they are 5-1 straight up after allowing 55 or more points since 2005. Two other situations are in our favor as we play against favorites coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1983. Also, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 14 or more points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (430) Oakland Raiders

We lost a tough one with Carolina last week as Denver scored 16 point via defense and special teams. Once that pick six took place, the whole dynamic of the game changed. The Panthers were getting three and a half points against Denver and now they are getting a point and a half against Tampa Bay? Denver is clearly two points better than the Buccaneers so we are not only getting line value here but we get to buck a team that is now a public darling after three straight wins.

The Buccaneers have been playing very good of late but the wins have not been that impressive in my book. Defeating Minnesota and Oakland on the road were good but not great and against the Chargers, Tampa Bay was outgained by 147 total yards. The Buccaneers took advantage of a blocked punt return and an interception return for touchdowns so they were the beneficiaries of those fortunate plays as opposed to Carolina which was on the other side of those last game.

Overall, the Carolina offense was not very good last week as it managed only 250 total yards which was a surprise as it had a very solid run going following a horrible performance against Seattle. The Panthers should be able to turn that around here against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are second to last in the NFL in total defense and they have allowed an average of 419.3 ypg over their last four games. The defense on the road has been even worse as they are allowing 423.5 on the highway this season.

The Carolina defense held Denver to its second lowest yardage total in its last seven games so it can take that positive away. The Broncos did score 36 points but 14 of those came way of defense and special teams. Tampa Bay's offense has really picked things up as it has been scoring a ton of points but this is a trend we are going to buck as the Buccaneers are coming off their third worst performance on offense of the season as they managed only 279 total yards against the Chargers.

Despite the records, Tampa Bay is -35.8 ypg in yardage margin while Carolina is -10.6 ypg in yardage margin which shows the team that has been better from endzone to endzone. Despite this, Carolina goes from a three-point road favorite in the first meeting to a home underdog this meeting which sets up playing on teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less with a line between +3 and -3 revenging a loss as a favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (418) Carolina Panthers

I will gladly take this many points in an NFL game no matter good or how bad the teams may be. The situation sets us up even better. Houston is coming off a hard-fought, physical game at Chicago on Monday night in which it was able to sneak out with the win. Now it heads home on a short week laying over two touchdowns in a meaningless game. On top of that, the Texans have a short week coming up as they play at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day meaning they will be doing preparation for that game this week.

The Jaguars are not a very good team as we all know but even bad teams cover in the NFL. That includes Jacksonville which is 4-5 ATS so while still not profitable, it has been far from a money burner on the season. Double-digit underdogs are not as common in the NFL as they used to be but since 1990, they are hitting at a 65 percent clip including a perfect 3-0 last week. I am well aware that Houston has covered all three as double-digit favorites this year but none of those were spots like this.

The Jaguars offense has been bad all season but it has been inconsistent which is actually okay when dealing with a negative since there have been some good performances. They were completely shut down in the first meeting at home against the Texans but there will be a different plan here as the Jaguars will go more no-huddle on offense. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert seems more at ease when playing the hurry up and it help be beneficial going against Houston which likes to use a lot of situational substituting.

Jacksonville has taken a step backwards from last season on defense but it still has shown to be very stout at times. Allowing 238 total yards in their last road game at Green Bay is a perfect case in point. As far as Houston goes, it is not going to be throwing everything it has at Jacksonville on offense because with a short week on tap, the Texans cannot afford to expend a ton of energy as a physical game with Detroit awaits. Running back Arian Foster may be sharing time in the backfield with Justin Forsett which helps our cause.

Jacksonville has a solid contrarian situation going for it as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that are averaging fewer than 265 ypg going up against teams that are allowing between 265 and 295 ypg. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games revenging a same season loss. The Jaguars have covered all four road games this year as well. 10* (425) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bills dropped to 3-6 following their third straight loss and the hopes of sneaking into the playoffs are getting slimmer by the week. The possibility is still there as only Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have winning records in the race for the two Wild Card spots. Buffalo had its chance to upset the Patriots but a costly interception with just 23 seconds remaining ended the comeback attempt. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 134 total yards but turnovers did them in.

The Dolphins have dropped two in a row and they were exposed on Sunday against lowly Tennessee. It was the fifth straight game that Miami got outgained and the seventh time in nine games on the season so despite being just a game under .500, it has been pretty fortunate along the way. The Dolphins are 2-3 on the road with the wins coming against the Jets and Bengals despite getting outgained in both games as turnovers were the difference. Despite all of this, Miami is a very slight road underdog once again.

This game will come down to how the Bills can recover from that heartbreaking loss in New England. Heading home definitely will help as will the fact that it has already been announced that the game is sold out which is a big gain for Buffalo. While the recovery is a question, the same can be said for the Dolphins as their loss was much worse and might be even tough to recover from since it is a very young team and once that has not had to bounce back on the road after a big loss.

Miami is just 26th in the NFL in total offense and 25th in scoring offense. The rushing game has been horrible of late as the Dolphins have not had 100 rushing yards in any game since Week Three. In their past six games they are averaging a mere 72 rushing ypg. Buffalo's defense is suspect but it should be fine here. On the other side, the Bills will be without Fred Jackson but C.J. Spiller can more than make up for it. Over the last four games, he has totaled over 100 yards rushing and receiving combined.

This is a must win game for both sides and we give the edge to the home team on a Thursday night with a very small line. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games coming off two straight up losses as a favorite while Buffalo is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. The Bills won this season against Kansas City after getting pummeled on the road in New York against the Jets after a -3 turnover margin. 10* (306) Buffalo Bills

Kansas City comes into this game with a 1-7 record following another disappointing performance last Thursday at San Diego. The Chiefs actually once again did not play bad but they were hurt by turnovers as they had four miscues and it was the seventh time in eight games they have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle. That has obviously hurt both sides of the ball as despite being near the bottom of the NFL in points scored and allowed, they are 16th and 17th in total offense and total defense respectively.

The Steelers are very heavy favorites in this game as they have won three straight games and are looking good to make another serious playoff push. This is a horrible spot in my opinion though as Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win last week in New York against the Giants and it has a game on deck with Baltimore next week which will have huge implications in the AFC North. The Steelers have no interest in this game so we will not be seeing their best effort Monday night.

How bad have turnovers hurt the Chiefs? Despite being 1-7, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 ypg which is 11th best in the NFL. So obviously they have hurt quite a bit. Handicapping turnovers is a tough thing to do since there is no basis for it as a lot of that comes down to luck and being in the right place at the right time or vice versa. The Steelers used to be a ball-hawking defense but that is not the case anymore as they finished last in the AFC in takeaways last year and have just eight this year.

The key for Kansas City tonight will be to establish a running game and not give it up. While the Steelers defense is tops in the NFL, their rushing defense has been a weakness. They have allowed only 100 yards once this season but teams are not trying to run which is the reason as Pittsburgh has seen the third fewest amount of rushing attempts in the league. The Steelers are allowing a rather high 4.0 ypc and with the Chiefs averaging 4.7 ypc on offense, they can definitely take advantage.

The weather is not looking great tonight so that should favor the underdog as poor conditions tend to shorten games which is a benefit for big underdogs. Kansas City falls into numerous positive situations and one that stands out in fact has to do with turnovers as we play on road underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse on the season, after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (239) Kansas City Chiefs

This is certainly not the best of spots for Denver as it is coming off a road win at Cincinnati last week and now has to travel back east once again to take on Carolina. The Broncos have a showdown with San Diego next week so they can certainly be in lookahead mode but the fact that they are on the road for a second consecutive week is what makes this one a go. Denver has won three straight, scoring more than 30 points in each, and that is a go against if ever there was one.

Carolina is coming off a much needed victory as it had dropped five straight games prior to the victory at Washington last week. That skid started with a blowout loss against the Giants but the next four games all could have gone either way as the four defeats came by five points or fewer and by an average of 3.0 ppg. Carolina is clearly the best 2-6 team in football as they are outgaining opponent by an average of 1.9 ypg which is small but no other team that is at least four games under .500 can claim that.

The Panthers offense should be able to feed off their solid game last week and have some solid success at home. Many will be questioning how the Carolina defense will stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense and my answer is keep playing like it has. Since Carolina fell to Atlanta 30-28 in Week Four, the Panthers' defense has been one of the league's best, ranking fourth in total defense, allowing just 292.3 ypg and pass defense, allowing 189.0 ypg and fifth in points allowed with only 17.8 ppg.

I played against Denver last week and it was able to escape despite getting outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos are a highly public betting team right now as they have posted a 5-3 ATS mark including wins in their last two games on the road. We have seen the value be completely depleted from Denver and last week was one of those games where we were arguably on the right side of the wager but ended with a bad result. The home underdog once again gets the call today.

Play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 ypg or more on offense going up against teams that are allowing between 335 and 370 ypg on defense. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Carolina has thrive in situations like this as it is 12-2 ATS in it last 14 home games against teams that are averaging 375 or more ypg. In addition, the Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in three straight games. 10* (222) Carolina Panthers

Atlanta once again was able to avoid its first loss of the season as it defeated the Cowboys and got the frontdoor cover thanks to a field goal with 17 seconds remaining. The Falcons hit the road once again where they are 4-0 on the season but three of those wins came against some very disappointing opposition. The same can be said about this week's foe but the further we get into the season with that unblemished record, the more amped the other team is going to be to stop that streak.

We can definitely say New Orleans is at the top of that list. The Saints and Falcons have become pretty big rivals and with New Orleans being at the top of the division two of the last three years and Atlanta claiming the other year, it has turned bitter. The Saints have struggled to a 3-5 start this season but after opening 0-4, they have started to catch a little bit of fire with wins in three of their last four games. The playoffs were once a distant dream but that is no longer the case anymore as New Orleans is right back in it.

The Falcons have played a schedule ranked 28th in the NFL by Sagarin so you would think they have been dominating. Well, they haven't. While winning is what counts, it is a very below average 8-0 team and Sagarin backs that up with the Falcons sitting sixth in his power rankings. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 20.3 ypg. Looking at rankings, Atlanta is eighth in total offense and 19th in total defense and last year's 10-6 team actually had a better average ranking (10th and 12th respectively).

New Orleans still possesses one of the best offense in the NFL as it is ranked fifth in total offense and eighth in scoring offense and put the ball in Drew Brees' hands on his home turf is a scary thought for the opponent. The Saints have two home losses this year to a couple bad teams in Washington and Kansas City but they did have chances to win both of those games but the defense was horrific both times out. That will be an issue with some again here but the switch may have finally been flipped.

The Saints defense responded when it needed to against the Eagles on Monday and they can feed off that effort. That unit is part of a great situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against winning teams and 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg on offense. 10* (228) New Orleans Saints

We saw a similar situation with Indianapolis a few weeks back when it defeated Green Bay at home which happened to be the first game for the Colts after finding out head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. They won that game for him. Flash forward to this past Sunday and the Colts were winners at home once again and this time Pagano was in the locker room after the game and gave a very emotional speech to the players and that win will be tough to play after, especially on such a short week.

Jacksonville is coming off its fifth straight loss as it was defeated by Detroit as it fell behind 24-0 and could not recover. The Jaguars are now 1-7 on the season but they find themselves in the national spotlight on Thursday so they will certainly come to play. We saw another similar situation last season when they were 1-5 and had a Monday night home game against the Ravens which they won outright as 10-point underdogs. Two of Jacksonville's losses this year came in overtime so it has not been horrible.

The Colts are now 5-3 on the season which is certainly one of the biggest turnarounds from last season after winning just two games. Indianapolis has won three straight games but it has to be one of the most average teams in the NFL that possesses a winning record. Two of the three losses have come by 20 points or more while all five wins have come by four points or less or in overtime. Five of the first eight games have come at home and both of those 20-point losses in fact took place on the highway.

The Colts have been moving the ball very well on offense but have little to show for it as they have turned the ball over and have failed to finish off drives which has led to field goals. They are 23rd in scoring offense and they are also 23rd in scoring defense. The Jaguars offense has been pathetic at times to say the least as turnovers have not helped along the way. The good news here is that the Colts defense has forced only three takeaways all season which is by far the fewest in the NFL.

We often see underdogs go to favorites and vice versa in college football from week to week but it is more rare in the NFL but we are seeing it this week as the Colts go from a home underdog to a road favorite. This dynamic goes into a situation going against the Colts as we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-32 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. in addition, Indianapolis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* (106) Jacksonville Jaguars

We saw the under come in last night which was good for Vegas and the books and they will be hoping for the same tonight but will not be as fortunate. We played the Saints to stay under last Sunday night which it did without much of a problem. That game was on the road however as the New Orleans offense struggled with only 252 total yards which was a season low. The only other time the Saints were held to fewer than 300 total yards, they erupted for 474 yards next game.

The 14 points scored last week was the lowest point total New Orleans has put up since opening week of 2009 not counting Week 17 games. The Saints responded with 25 points in its next game. Last season, New Orleans lowest output on offense was 20 points at Tampa Bay. It responded with 62 points at home against the Colts. Granted the Colts were horrible but the point is that New Orleans has responded in the past coming off poor offensive efforts and that will happen again.

The Eagles game went over the total last week as they lost to the Falcons 30-17. Their offense has been its share of struggles this season as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Those four games were against teams ranked in the top ten of the NFL in scoring defense however and tonight that will not be the case as the Saints are ranked 30th in points allowed and dead last in total defense. Now is the time for the Eagles to break out of that slump.

Even though they have not put up points, the Eagles offense has been able to move the ball as they are 13th in total offense which is not great but it shows turnovers have been a big cause in holding them back. They should have no issues as New Orleans has created only nine turnovers on defense and that is one of the big reasons it has struggled so much as it has been on the field for way too long. Philadelphia can take advantage and break out of its low scoring slump.

This is no doubt a big number but I feel it is very justified as the situation and the matchups both favor a high-scoring game. 20 is the magic number here as the Eagles are 6-0 to the over in their last six games when both teams score 20 or more points and New Orleans is 13-3 to the over in its last 16 games in the same parameter. Those 22 games have averaged 57.8 ppg. The over is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games against teams with a losing record and the over is 4-0 in the Eagles last four road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (439) Philadelphia Eagles/(440) New Orleans Saints

Dallas is coming off another disappointing loss as it fought back from a 23-0 deficit to the Giants to take the lead only to give it back again in the fourth quarter. This was the Cowboys second in their last three games where they had a chance to win but could not come through in the end. The worst part is that Dallas outgained New York by 141 yards and outgained Baltimore by 165 yards but it lost the turnover battle both times. The Cowboys continue to waste talent but that changes here.

We bet against the Falcons last week but the Eagles failed to show up yet again as they fell behind by 14 points early and were unable to recover. Atlanta remains the only undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and while winning is what counts, it is arguably one of the worst 7-0 teams you will see based on statistics. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 12.4 ypg and they have been outgained in three of their seven games. That is not good against Dallas which has been outgained only twice by 16 and 19 yards.

Dallas has won the turnover battle in only one of its seven games this season and that is obviously the reason for its poor record. The Cowboys are seventh in the NFL in total offense and fourth in total defense yet are just 23rd and 18th in points scored and points allowed respectively. Despite a high powered offense, they have scored more than 24 points only once this season. Expect to see a balanced offensive attack against Atlanta that is not very good in either defensive category.

The Falcons are ranked 20th in total defense but have allowed the seventh fewest amount of points as the turnover issue is just the opposite for them. They have yet to lose the turnover battle in any game this season which is pretty impressive this late into the season. Even the offense is pretty average as Atlanta is 13th overall but has played from short fields a lot of the times. The Falcons have played only one team currently ranked in the top half of the league as they have played the 31st ranked schedule.

Dallas needs to fins a way to close the door and this is the perfect opportunity to do it. The Falcons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after three or more consecutive wins while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more yards last game. Also, we play against home teams after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (437) Dallas Cowboys

Chicago came away with a big win over Carolina on Sunday as it got away with a pretty bad game to pull out the victory. I played against the Bears then and will be playing against them again here as this is a horrible spot on Sunday. They were outgained by 206 total yards against the Panthers but were able to take advantage of miscues late in the game. Coming off that last second victory and now hits the road as a favorite with games against San Francisco and Houston on deck puts Chicago in a brutal situation.

Tennessee had won two straight games before dropping its game in overtime against Indianapolis this past Sunday. The Titans dropped to 3-5 on the season but with only three other non-division leaders in the AFC above .500, the season is far from done. The schedule is not very demanding the rest of the way so getting back into the playoff picture is far from out of the question. The Titans next two games are on the road with a bye week sandwiched in-between so taking care of things here is a must.

The Titans defense has started to play a lot better of late. After allowing 30 points or more in their first five games, they have allowed an average of 25.3 ppg over their last three games and while that is still pretty poor compared to NFL standards, any improvement is a good one. Tennessee should not have to worry about much here as Chicago's offense has been pretty pedestrian as it is ranked 26th in total offense and even though the ppg average is high, that is due to only three games.

The Bears defense has carried them this season as they are ranked seventh overall and second in points allowed. Again, it has come down to just a few games against some pretty bad teams that has skewed the overall numbers. Tennessee is definitely inconsistent on offense but it has shown the ability to put up some significant numbers. After putting up more than 325 yards only once in their first five games, the Titans have averaged 362.7 ypg over their last three games.

Tennessee falls into a solid situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 113-66 ATS (63.1 percent) since 1983. The Titans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring 15 or fewer points in their last game. Chicago meanwhile is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in its previous game while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games after three or more straight wins. 10* (430) Tennessee Titans

After two straight primetime games with a bye week sandwiched in-between, the Broncos get back to a normal schedule as they play an early game on Sunday on the road. Denver scored 35 unanswered points to defeat San Diego on Monday night and then following a bye week, it took apart the Saints at home, winning by 20 points and outgaining New Orleans by 278 total yards. That puts the Broncos in a very difficult spot this week against a hungry team.

The Bengals are coming off their bye week and it came at the perfect time as they are riding a three-game losing streak which came right after a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati never should have lost to Cleveland or Miami as it outgained both opponents but turnovers were the difference as it had seven in the two games combined. The Bengals remain home next week as well as they face the Giants so coming away with two losses will drop them to 3-6 and very likely out of the playoff picture.

After finishing seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense last season, the Bengals have slipped to 21st and 25th respectively this year. That is a pretty big drop but the defense has not been consistently bad and they have actually played very well in the majority of their games. Inconsistence is better than being consistently poor and coming off the bye week, I expect them to continue to improve. Denver is solid on offense with Peyton Manning but it has been very inconsistent with only two really big games.

Denver's defense has gotten a lot better this year compared to last season but it is still giving up a substantial amount of points, especially early on in games. Cincinnati is coming off its worst game of the season as it gained only 185 yards against the Steelers. The last time the offense put up fewer than 300 yards, the Bengals bounced back next game and amassed 438 yards. The bounceback factor comes into play again here and playing in a substantial game, we should see the rebound take place.

The Bengals are in a good bounceback spot as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road teams that are averaging more than 370 ypg on offense after outgaining their last opponent by 200 or more total yards in their previous game, going up against a team allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (416) Cincinnati Bengals

San Diego was unfortunate last week as it was forced to play in tough weather conditions and lost in Cleveland 7-6. Even giving them a mulligan for that game, the Chargers are not playing good at all and there is no reason for them to be favored by this many points, especially in a divisional game. San Diego has now lost three straight games and that loss against the Broncos three weeks ago where they blew a 24-0 lead is going to stick with them for a while. A return home is good but it has dropped two straight at Qualcomm.

We lost with the Chiefs this past Sunday as they played good enough to win but could not overcome four turnovers. It was the sixth time in seven games that Kansas City lost the turnover battle and it has lost all of those by a least two so things have not been good in that aspect. The Chiefs are 29th in the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense but those rankings improve to 11th and 18th respectively in total offense and total defense so they have done well but it is the turnovers that have made them stall.

The Chiefs scored 17 or more points in each of their first four games but have failed to get to that number in any of their last three games. The San Diego defense has been all over the place this year and while it is ranked ninth in scoring and tenth overall, two games against the Titans and Browns have skewed those rankings. The defense has forced one or no turnovers in five of their seven games this season so they have not been able to give their offense a break.

San Diego is only 25th in total offense this season and it is in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Yes they are balanced but a bad balance does the Chargers no good. People may think catching the Chiefs defense will help turn things around but Kansas City has allowed more than 400 total yards only once this season so while the point totals are up, the defense has been decent. Kansas city has won the yardage battle in five of seven games this season.

Kansas City lost the first meeting against San Diego and it was attributed to what else, turnovers. They turned it over six times and there is no way to recover from that. The Chiefs fall into a great revenge situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a home loss against a division rival. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. The Chiefs are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. 10* (301) Kansas City Chiefs

Monday night home underdogs are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season with Seattle winning outright over the Packers and the Jets covering against Houston. The former obviously never should have taken place and going back the last few years, Monday night home underdogs are not what they used to be. Still, this number is completely out of line as the 49ers go from a seven-point home favorite to close to a seven-point road favorite in the span of just one week. There is no way the adjustment should be that big.

After starting the season 4-0, Arizona has dropped its last three games. I for one have been against the Cardinals in all three of those games but actually did not play that poorly in any of those games. It can be proven by the fact that Arizona outgained its opponent in all three of those games despite being on the short end of the scoreboard. Last week was especially tough as the Cardinals outgained Minnesota by 147 total yards but still lost by a touchdown. Those three losses are giving us value here.

The 49ers defense is ranked first overall and second in points allowed but they are again playing at a very high level. But they have not looked as dominant as last season though. San Francisco is 10th in rushing defense but after allowing just 318 yards on 98 carries (3.2 ypc) in its first four games, it has allowed 374 yards on 85 caries (4.4 ypc) in its last three games. The 49ers have allowed 285 yards rushing the last two games and this is an area that Arizona has to take advantage of.

San Francisco's offense is ranked ninth overall but just 16th in scoring as it has been unable to finish drives. It is ranked 19th in third down conversions and the 49ers should continue to struggle against an underrated Arizona defense that is allowing opponents to convert just 30.6 percent of their third down attempts, good for sixth best in the NFL. Overall the Cardinals seven in total defense and fourth in scoring defense so it will take a huge effort from the 49ers to break through which I do not see happening.

This is not a very good spot for the 49ers either as they have just enjoyed three straight home games and the last game sets them up for a fall as they are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing six points or less last game. Arizona meanwhile is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and under head coach Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their 17 games against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg. An outright victory is not too farfetched here. 10* (244) Arizona Cardinals

The Raiders were able to come back from a big deficit against Jacksonville and pull out a win in overtime. It was just their second win of the season and a victory like that spells letdown even though this is a divisional game that seems to be winnable. Oakland has lost all three road games this year by an average of 18.7 ppg and while it is coming off its best effort in its last game at Atlanta, that was more of the Falcons not even showing up. Expect the opposite for the home team this week.

Kansas City's bye week could not have come sooner as it has been a struggle for the Chiefs early this season. They come into this game with a 1-5 record but they have not played as bas as that record shows. Kansas City outgained all of its first five opponents despite losing four of those games. Even with the poor record, the Chiefs are favored here for the first time this season which shows the situation at hand and the team they are playing. It is now must win time before games at San Diego and Pittsburgh on deck.

The Raiders win was no doubt a big confidence booster and this team has the talent to compete in the division but they are simply too undisciplined. Too many penalties and too many turnovers on offense have hurt them in close games by not being able to win as well as blowout losses that could have been closer. Oakland is 18th and 17th in total offense and total defense respectively so it is below average on both sides which isn't helping matters either.

The issue for the Chiefs this season is turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in all but one game and that was wash. Because of this, the offense is struggling to score while the defense is unable to hold teams back because of the situations it is put in. Kansas City is 29th in points scored and 30th in points allowed but a much better eighth in total offense and 15th in total defense which clearly shows how turnovers can skew things. The Raiders are not opportunistic on defense though.

This has been the case for a while now as Oakland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a turnover margin of -1.5 per game or worse. Also, Oakland is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games against teams that are getting outscored by 10 or more ppg on the season. Kansas City meanwhile is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road loss by two or more touchdowns while head coach Romeo Crennel is 16-3 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (238) Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta comes into this week as the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL as the Falcons are 6-0 and coming off their bye week. The bye arguably came at a very bad time for Atlanta as it was riding a lot of momentum with their six wins to open the season and now they have to travel and face a team that is in desperate need of a win. Atlanta is 3-0 on the road and overall the schedule it has played is ranked dead last in the NFL in strength. This will be the toughest test to date.

There have been a few changes for the Eagles as they come out of their bye week. Most notably, they have a new defensive coordinator as Juan Castillo was let go and replaced by Todd Bowles. The defense wasn't horrible though as the Eagles have surrendered 20.8 ppg, 11th fewest among NFL defenses. They've given up 226.3 passing ypg and 104.5 rushing ypg, both of which are 15th in the league. A lot of the issues was with the offense turning the ball over and giving the opponents short fields.

After last season's high expectations, the Eagles came in with high expectations again this year and once again, they are not coming through. After a last second loss to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia blew another lead and lost to Detroit in overtime so the bye week was excellent timing. As mentioned, turnover have been the big issue but the case can be made for the other side as well now as the Falcons have turned the ball over five times over their last three games.

None of the Falcons