Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. Cincinnati has won three of its last four games after losing its first two games of the season and it has yet to dominate any team thus far and that should come to an end here. The weakness last season was the offensive line as Joe Burrow was sacked 70 times and it was looking like a repeat after the first couple games but the revamped line has gotten a lot better and is in a great matchup here. The Bengals had issues dealing with good pass rushing team with two of their losses coming against the Steelers, when T.J. Watt was still playing, and the Cowboys. Now Cincinnati faces the worst pass rush ranked team in the NFL and it has had its way on offense against weak rushing teams, scoring 27 points against Miami and 30 points against New Orleans. Overall, the offense is ranked No. 20 and face an awful Atlanta defense that comes in ranked No. 27 overall. Atlanta opened the season with a tough one-point loss against the Saints despite outgaining New Orleans slightly and while it has gone 3-2 over its last five games, the Falcons have been outgained in all five games. The one key thing that everyone will point to is the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS which makes this a timely spot to go against that as this line is a lot lower than it should be. The Falcons will try to rely on its rushing game that is ranked No. 3 in the NFL but Cordarrelle Patterson remains out and only one player has gained more than 59 yards in the last three games since he went down. Atlanta is just 1-2 on the road and face a team that is excited to be home with four of their last five games taking place on the road. This is definitely a letdown spot after a two-touchdown win over the 49ers last week despite getting outgained by 57 total yards. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is probably the biggest bait bet for the public this week as the 5-1 Giants are going to see a lot of money come their way against a team two games worse but much better overall. New York is probably the biggest surprise through the first third of the season but it is not like it is playing that well as four of those wins easily could have been losses and in the six games, the Giants have been outgained three times including by 168 yards against Baltimore last week and in the three games they have won the yardage battle, it has been by 35, 29 and 37 total yards. The offense has done just enough as it is ranked No. 25 in total offense which includes a No. 31 rank in passing as it has relied on the running game but faces a tough run stop defense here. On the other side, the rushing defense is ranked No. 28 and the Giants have been outrushed in three games despite the strong push on offense. The Jaguars have lost three straight games including a tough one last week against the Colts as they blew a late lead. They are 2-4 overall and those four losses have all been by one possession which shows how competitive this team has been, something we have not seen in a very long time. Jacksonville is playing its third home game of the season, going 1-1 in the first two games but won the yardage battle in both of those games by 113 and 174 total yards. Like the Giants, they have a strong running game that is ranked No. 9 and unlike New York, they have been stout on defense, ranked No. 3 in rushing defense. This is a great spot with their season on the line and facing three AFC West teams in their next three games with just one of those taking place at home. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Colts are off to a 3-2-1 start but are the fourth lowest ranked team in the league that has a winning record, ahead of only the Vikings, Giants and Jets. They are 1-1-1 on the road with the lone win coming at Denver in overtime by an ugly 12-9 score and were shut out at Jacksonville while tying the hapless Texans. Quarterback Matt Ryan had 389 yards and three touchdowns last week in the revenge victory last week and while he has looked much better in his last four games after a very bad start, he still looks old and clueless at times. Surprisingly, the rushing offense has been a big letdown with Jonathan Taylor being banged up and while he is going to go here, he is not right and will be facing a tough rushing defense. The defense has kept them around and have the edge on that side of the ball here with the exception of the running game as they are ranked No. 21 in rushing defense. Tennessee has won three straight games after opening 0-2 and it is coming off its bye week which can hurt the positive momentum but for a physical team like the Titans, the week off is a positive in this case. This game could go a long way in deciding the AFC South as the Colts would fall to 1-3-1 in the division with little wiggle room despite a lot of football remaining as Tennessee would have the big upper hand with two games still remaining against Houston. The Titans running game and Derrick Henry should be the difference here. In the first meeting, he accounted for 60 percent of the total offense as he ran for 114 yards, 99 in the first half, on 22 carries (5.2 ypc) and he is fresh coming off that bye. Last week, the Colts allowed 243 yards rushing on 33 carries (7.4 ypc) so the titans are catching them in a very vulnerable spot. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. Arizona is coming off a second straight loss and it was ugly as it managed only nine points against the worst defense in the NFL and it ended up being its second worst offensive performance of the season with only 315 yards. The problem throughout the season has not been production overall as the Cardinals are No. 16 in total offense but the issue has been execution as they have had to settle for field goals. After getting hammered by Kansas City in the opener, Arizona has outgained its last five opponents but third down conversions are at just 34.1 percent which is No. 28 in the NFL but it has been much better at home at 39 percent despite facing the Chiefs, Rams and Eagles. The loss of wide receiver Hollywood Brown is a tough one for an offense that has struggled enough already but the timing is not bad as DeAndre Hopkins has served his six-game suspension and will return this week. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game. New Orleans is 2-4 on the season following a home loss against Cincinnati and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 27 in the league. The two wins came against Atlanta and Seattle, both of which have overachieved thus far and the Saints are heading into a tough spot here against a desperate team at home. This is their first true road game since September 25 after a game in London and then two home games and they have to travel on a short week. Overall, New Orleans has played better than their record shows, at least on offense, as it is ranked No. 5 overall and No. 11 in scoring but it has faced four defenses ranked No. 21 or worse and this will be the second toughest defense it has faced as the Cardinals are ranked No. 12 with Tampa Bay being the strongest it has seen. The Saints have struggled defensively to keep points off the board as they are No. 29 in scoring defense. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (304) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This is a great value play on Denver based on not only the line but that everyone is still sour on the Broncos which has moved the line. Denver is coming off a pair of losses including a 12-9 overtime loss against Indianapolis last Thursday to drop them to 2-3 but despite the bad press, they have been better than that record shows. They are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg and the big issue has been offensive scoring as they are dead last in the NFL with 15.0 ppg but this will come around because turnovers have been the difference. This is a good spot to get the running game going with no Joey Bosa and a rushing defense that is ranked No. 23 which will take pressure off Russell Wilson and the ineffective red zone offense. The Broncos defense has kept them above water as Denver is No. 3 overall, in passing defense and scoring defense which can limit the Chargers offense. Los Angeles is coming off a pair of road wins and while that can bring in some positive momentum, those wins were both very unimpressive against Houston and Cleveland as they won the yardage battle by a combined 95 yards. The offense was hoping to have Keenan Allen back but that is very unlikely and they will be facing a blitz heavy defense which has been an issue for Justin Herbert who is 27-45 for 350 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions when facing a blitz. Being back home is always nice but this is not a great home field edge and the Chargers are at the disadvantage of facing a Denver team playing on a long layoff with line value. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC East Game of the Year. Many declared Dallas for dead after a season opening loss against Tampa Bay where Dak Prescott went down but the Cowboys have circled the wagons and have won four straight games behind backup Cooper Rush. He has done very well in carrying the team but his numbers are fairly average and as he has not tossed an interception, he has only four touchdowns with a passer rating of sub-90. Overall, the offense is ranked No. 27 while their scoring average is No. 25 so they have relied on a strong defense to keep opponents in check but this is not a good matchup to keep rolling. In the first five games, Dallas has faced teams with offensive lines ranked No. 15 or worse over the last four games and the game against Tampa Bay was the only one a top ten ranked unit. Now the Cowboys will square off against the top ranked offensive line in the league on the road in primetime, not the ideal situation. The Eagles were the big sleeper team coming into the season and so far they have not disappointed as they are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and they have been dominant. They are outgaining opponents by 125.4 ypg which trails only Buffalo overall and they are doing it in both phases as their +55 rushing ypg is No. 2 and their +70.4 passing ypg is No. 3 and a lot of this is attributed to the aforementioned top rated offensive line. Philadelphia is No. 5 in rushing offense and that is the weakness of the Dallas defense which is only No. 18 in rushing defense. Jalen Hurts is a legitimate MVP candidate and while it is early, he has become a big threat and has the parts around him to make this run keep going. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Arizona is off to a 2-3 start to the season following a brutal loss against Philadelphia last week as it missed a late field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. It has been an uncanny start as the road team is 5-0 in Cardinals games and they fell to 0-3 at home, where they have not won since October 24, 2021, a span of eight straight games going down in defeat. Being favored on the road should not scare anyone in this spot and while some may question why they are favored at all, they have played better than their record shows and should not be scrutinized. After getting blasted by Kansas City in the season opener, Arizona has outgained it last four opponents and by an average of 59.8 ypg so it is safe to say they are playing good despite splitting out those games and the Cardinals take a big step down in class this week and need this before facing the Saints at home this upcoming Thursday. Seattle is also 2-3 following a loss at New Orleans last week and its 2-3 record is much different than that of the Cardinals. The Seahawks were fortunate to beat Denver and narrowly defeated Detroit in a shootout and they have won the yardage battle only twice by a total of 69 yards while getting outgained by a combined 379 yards so when they have been good, they have been average and when they have been bad, they have been horrible. We are eventually going to see what we expected heading into the season and that is a long road down the stretch and while the offense has been really good under Geno Smith, the defense is horrendous as they are dead last in total defense and second to last in scoring defense. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (269) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Cleveland lost a tough one last week against the Chargers by two points as it opened the game by going ahead 14-0 but was outscored 27-7 before the Browns were able to retake the lead in the third quarter but were shutout in the final quarter. A missed 54-yaard field goal in the final seconds pushed them to 2-3 and it was the first game they were outgained this season but it was still by only 22 yards. Overall, Cleveland is +42.6 ypg which is the sixth best differential in the league and it is one of only three teams in the top 12 that possess a losing record. Additionally, the Browns are +54.2 ypg in rushing differential which is third best in the league, trailing only the 49ers and Eagles. Jacoby Brissett has been solid so far as he is managing games well and while he did not play in this meeting last season, this is a big revenge game for the Browns which lost 45-7 in New England last November. New England is coming off a 29-0 shutout of Detroit against a good Lions offense but they were still down running back D'Andre Swift who is a big part of that offense. Quarterback Bailey Zappe won his first career start but he did not have great numbers with the exception of a high completion rate and there is a chance that Mac Jones returns but there really is not much of a difference between the two besides game experience. The Patriots have won the yardage battle in three of five games but just once in three road games with the exception being against Pittsburgh which is not saying much. The one positive is that they have increased their rushing output every game but a lot of that is due to running it a ton as they have averaged 4.6 which is good but nothing spectacular. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (258) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Bears have been more competitive than people thought they would be as they are 2-3 and the last two losses have been by a combined 15 points on the road but the scoring numbers are misleading. Chicago has been outgained in four of five games, three of those by 127 or more yards and it is getting outgained by close to 100 ypg. The Bears have the 32nd ranked passing offense in the league and overall they are 31st in total offense so while the rushing game has carried them through the first five games, this is not a good matchup. Chicago has averaged 157.4 ypg on the ground which is No. 5 in the NFL but Washington has been solid against the run, allowing just 110.6 ypg and did a good job against Derrick Henry last week, giving up only 3.6 ypc. Washington looked like it was going to pull out a last second win against Tennessee last week but an interception from Carson Wentz from the two-yard line handed the Commanders their fourth straight loss after defeating Jacksonville in the season opener. Wentz was called out by head coach Ron Rivera and whether it provides motivation we will not know but is shows the frustration and this is the ideal matchup to get back into the win column. Washington has outgained three of five opponents and on the season and it is getting outgained by only 4.0 ypg with the biggest discrepancy being a 24-8 loss to 5-0 Philadelphia. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a turnover defense forcing one or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Chiefs accomplished their Super Bowl revenge with a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay but a return home keeps it rolling as this is just their second home contest of the season. Kansas City has outgained three of four opponents with the lone exception being the one home game against the Chargers where it got backdoored late on a touchdown with just over a minute left. The offense has not skipped a beat with the new receiver personnel as the Chiefs are No. 5 in total offense and No. 2 in scoring offense which includes a bad effort against the Colts where turnovers and special teams ended up being the difference. This could be considered a sandwich game with the Bills on deck but being a Monday night game against a division rival, that is not a concern. We played against the Raiders last week and it was a front door cover there as well with a touchdown with two minutes left. The victory saved the season after starting 0-3 and this is a daunting matchup in trying to get back-to-back wins and while the offense has progressively gotten better, facing an underrated defense on the road is a challenge. The Chiefs have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league so the big game from Josh Jacobs last week cannot be counted upon here. On the other side, the Raiders are No. 22 in total defense and No. 24 in scoring defense and should have no answer for the Kansas City offense. Here, we play on Monday night home teams coming off consecutive road games and playing a team coming off a home game. this situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (480) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC North Game of the Month. In one regard, Baltimore has to be livid after blowing a 20-3 lead against Buffalo last week but what better bounce back opponent could they ask for than divisional rival Cincinnati who blasted them by a combined 82-38 in the two meetings last season. Sure, it is not an easy opponent but because of that, we are getting fair line value in a rare situation involving Baltimore games where the road team is 4-0 in its first four games this season. In addition to the blown lead against the Bills, they blew a massive lead against the Dolphins and in a strange scheduling quirk, the Ravens opened the season with all four games against the AFC East and are a not to happy coming away with a .500 record in those games. The offense has done its part as Baltimore is ranked No. 3 in scoring and No. 12 overall but the defense remains an issue that plagued them last season. A change in coaching personnel has not helped as the Ravens are allowing 6.2 yards per play which is tied for fourth most in the league and while that may not be a good stat going into this matchup but they possess the No. 10 ranked blitz percentage and that can cause havoc against this awful offensive line. The Bengals have regained some of their footing as they opened with a pair of bad losses against the Steelers and Cowboys before bouncing back against the Jets and Dolphins the last two weeks. Those two wins fell right into their laps, however. New York was coming off that epic comeback against the Browns so the Bengals caught the Jets perfectly and the following week, they got Miami coming off a game against Bills in excessive heat where they had to play on a short week. This will be the second team they have faced coming off a loss and Dallas took care of business with its backup quarterback and now face Lamar Jackson who is putting up considerable numbers through the air and on the ground. Cincinnati is overachieving on defense thanks to a schedule that is ranked No. 21 in strength. 10* (478) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Arizona falls into another plug your nose side but situation and value trump any and all love that is pouring over Philadelphia right now. The Cardinals avoided a 1-3 start with a win at Carolina last week and they moved to 2-0 on the road and will be out to break their 0-2 record at home and it can be done. One factor that should come back to the mean is avoiding slow starts as the Cardinals have not scored in the first quarter in any of their first four games while getting outscored 70-16 in the first half of those games so the fact they are sitting at .500 in pretty impressive. It has taken a while for the offense to get rolling but this is where Kyler Murray can have success. The pressure of the Eagles pass rush is one of the best in the NFL at 32.2 percent and that showed last week as they sacked Carson Wentz nine times but Murray brings the added element of getting out of the pocket and making plays on his own. After a bad loss to the Chiefs, Arizona has outgained each of its last three opponents so they have been sneaky efficient. Philadelphia started to make some noise in the preseason as it was getting extra love in the futures market in winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl and those early tickets are looking tasty as the lines have taken off. The 4-0 start is putting them near the top of the Super Bowl odds and that is also helping week-to-week as the Eagles have covered eight straight games and the lines need to be continually adjusted and have been overpriced here. It is a mix of the public perception of the Eagles, they are very good to be fair, and the public saying the Cardinals suck which leads us into backing an Arizona team with excellent value. The power numbers do not like Philadelphia too much and we are not talking about the ones on TV that are amping the Eagles up as they are as low as No. 8 mostly due to a schedule that is ranked fourth easiest. They have been flourishing with the run but face the No. 5 ranked rushing defense in the league. 10* (474) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. San Francisco improved to 2-2 on the season with a win over Los Angeles and is now in a tough spot where they have to travel east on a short week following a divisional win and one that had revenge attached to it from the NFC Championship from a season ago. The 49ers are now again a public darling which is always the case for the winner of the two late standalone games on Sunday and Monday and we are bucking the public love in this one. San Francisco played another solid game on defense as it remains the best in the NFL close to through the first quarter of the season as the 49ers are ranked No. 1 in both total defense and scoring defense and No. 2 in both rushing defense and passing defense. On paper, the Panthers should be able to do nothing and that is a big part of why we are seeing the betting markets all over the 49ers with 75 percent of the money holding their tickets where the line has gone from -3 to -6.5 across places on Friday. Getting to 7 would be ideal but that is unlikely going to happen. Carolina head coach Matt Rhule is clearly on the hot seat as there has been some suspect play calling in certain situations but to their credit, the Panthers could be better than their 1-3 record shows as they have been within striking distance late of all three of those losses. They have played a weak slate thus far so losing all of those three winnable games is inexcusable so they are put into a tough spot here but not a daunting one as they do possess the big scheduling edge. Playing at home has not worked out so far on this homestand with a split against the Saints and Cardinals so the third straight home game will send them on the highway on a positive. Baker Mayfield has shown his struggles against heavy blitzes but the 49ers are not a blitzing defense as their 22 percent rate is No. 21 in the league so while they still create heavy pressure, Mayfield can get around that and not have the ball batted back into his face. 10* (472) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Not often do we see a game that has both situation and matchup heavily favoring one side but we have that here in what should finally be the Tampa Bay coming out party. The Buccaneers were given no favors by the schedule-makers for the early part of the slate, until now that is. They opened with a pair pf road games at New Orleans and Dallas and then came home to face two of the top teams in their respective conferences in Green Bay and Kansas City with both resulting in losses. Tampa Bay now gets its third straight game at home and following a pair of losses is the best time to back Tom Brady in a strong bounce back situation. The Buccaneers are ranked No. 25 in total offense and No. 16 in scoring offense as they remain unbalanced with the third fewest rushing attempts in the league and now that they are getting healthy in some key spots, the balance should work itself out. Atlanta is 2-2 and could be 4-0 or 0-4 or anywhere in-between and this is just the second test of the season. The first came in a four-point loss in Los Angeles against the Rams but the Falcons were down 21 points late and a blocked punt return for a touchdown and a safety made the score more respectable. The other three games were against three bad teams and overall, the early schedule is ranked No. 25 in strength compared to the No. 4 ranked schedule for Tampa Bay. The run first offense is in trouble here against a solid Tampa Bay rushing defense with the exception of last week and one that has Cordarrelle Patterson on IR leaving the bulk of the rushing to Tyler Allegier. This means the game could be put into the arm of Marcus Mariota and that is not what Atlanta wants as he comes in with a passer rating that is fifth lowest in the league. Defensively, the Falcons have three quarterback hurries on the season, yes three in total, and their 1.9 percent hurry percentage is the lowest in the NFL which is not ideal when facing Brady coming off a pair of losses and some rare scrutiny coming his way. 10* (460) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Everyone is down on Washington and that is hard to provide pushback on as the Commanders have lost three straight games following a season opening win against Jacksonville. Two of the three losses were on the road where they were outgained by only 29 yards against Detroit and actually outgained Dallas by 18 yards in the loss last week while the home defeat came against Philadelphia. We are not saying Washington is a very good team but it is not a four to five-point underdog to Tennessee on a neutral field. One very quick comparison to show how close these teams are is to look at the top level of both sides. In total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense, Washington is ranked between No. 23 and No. 29 in all four categories while Tennessee is ranked between No. 22 and No. 29 in those categories so this is a wash. The Commanders struggled to score points the last two divisional games but they did score 28 and 27 points in the first two games of the season and now face a defense that is going to allow them to move the ball without much resistance. Tennessee allows 6.3 yards per play which is third highest in the league behind only Seattle and Detroit so do not believe anything you hear that the Titans possess a strong defense because they do not anymore. The Titans won for us last week against the Colts despite getting outgained as they benefitted from a +3 turnover differential and now at 2-2 overall, they are overpriced. Tennessee has been outgained in all four games and while that aforementioned defense can take a lot of the blame, the offense is not far behind. The Titans are bottom third in everything and while they have averaged 360 ypg in two home games, they have averaged only 215 ypg in two road games and while this will be the worst defense they have seen, Ryan Tannehill is not going to strike fear as his No. 15 quarterback rating is about right. Treylon Burks is out and while he has not lived up to expectations just yet, it shows the impact of the loss of A.J. Brown. 10* (464) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. It has been a strange season for Indianapolis through four games. The Colts outgained Houston by 218 total yards yet the game ended up being a tie and they followed that up with a 24-0 loss in Jacksonville as they were outplayed throughout and it was the eighth straight road loss to the Jaguars. They got into the win column against Kansas City despite losing the yardage battle 259-203 and then last week, Indianapolis lost to Tennessee by a touchdown despite outgaining the Titans 365-243. The common trait in the four games was turnover differential as the Colts are currently -6 in turnover margin which is tied with second worst in the league and anything close to even would likely have Indianapolis sitting at 3-1 or 2-2 at the very least. The win over Kansas City was considered a must win and the football gods granted that and coming off another defeat, they are in the same spot with another must win game and at the very least, they are getting a favorable line. While Matt Ryan has been inconsistent and Jonathan Taylor has yet to break loose to keep the offense well down the list, the defense is keeping them competitive as they are ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 14 in scoring defense. Denver is also coming off a loss to fall to 2-2 as the offense continues to stumble along as last week was a great opportunity in a great matchup but the Broncos managed just 299 total yards and 12 first downs. They also suffered a big loss as running back Javonte Williams was lost for the season with a torn ACL and now the running game has to count on Melvin Gordon who has lost four fumbles already and has been the worst over the last four years. Like the Colts, the defense kept things close the first three weeks but last week against Las Vegas, they allowed 385 yards and 25 first downs so the Colts can build off that. Through the early part of the season, the Broncos look like they have the coaching disadvantage here as Nathanial Hackett still has not called a good game and being in the spotlight once again is not ideal. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa last game. this situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Rams have won two straight games following a season opening loss against the Bills and can take sole possession of first place in the NFC West at 3-1 including an all-important 2-0 division record with both coming on the road. Los Angeles has an offense that has yet to show much as it is ranked No. 26 overall including No. 30 in rushing offense and this does not seem to be the ideal matchup to get the offense rolling but while the 49ers and strong on defense across the board, they have not played a team with a semblance of an offense. The Rams defense has gotten better over the last three games after getting lit up by the Bills in that opener. This is the last time the Rams leave home in October as they have three straight home games along with a bye week so this victory could set the stage for a mini run that could space them out in the division prior to the second half of the season. San Francisco lost a tough one last week in Denver and the offense has managed 10 points in two of its first three games. Jimmy Garoppolo remains erratic at quarterback and while he faced a tough defense last week, the Rams are not far off and he did struggle against a much worse Seahawks defense. Part of the issue against the Broncos was the 49ers running game that was non-existent after two big games to open the season and the loss of Elijah Mitchell is a big one and while Jeff Mitchell was ok last week, nearly half of his 75 yards came on a 37-yard run so he averaged just 3.4 rpc on his other 11 carries. They will be out for revenge from the NFC Championship last season but that is not an angle to accept based on this being an early season divisional matchup for both teams. San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last twelve games as a divisional home favorite. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last five seasons including 2-0 yesterday (Tennessee and New England). 10* (279) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Josh McDaniels head coaching experiment is nearing a 0-2 start after he did not last two years in Denver and is now off to a 0-3 start in Las Vegas. The Raiders tried a late comeback last week only to fall short in Tennessee after a missed two-point conversion and it is safe to say their playoff hopes are already gone. Since 1980, only six teams have made the playoffs following a 0-3 start and that is out of 182 teams to start the season with that futility. Las Vegas has been close as each game has come down to the final ticks and while that is good experience to have, coming out on the wrong end each time is mentally tough and while this is a must win game, doing so against this defense will be a problem. 0-3 home favorites are just 8-20 ATS over the last 35 seasons. The Las Vegas defense has holes all over the place and was lit up by Ryan Tannehill last week as it is now ranked No. 26 in passing defense and now faces arguably the best quarterback it has seen. Denver is 2-1 despite an offense that has failed to surpass 16 points on offense but the situations have hurt those numbers. A pair of fumbles at the one-yard line against Seattle did them in and they faced one of the top defensive teams in the league last week but found a way at the end thanks to the quarterback. As mentioned last week, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 22 in QBR as he is completing just over than 59 percent of his passes but now three games in and facing a horrible defense, this can finally be his breakout game with the Broncos. Denver has relied on its defense to stay above .500 as the Broncos are ranked No. 3 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense and while they have faced some poor offenses, the Raiders have been nothing special with a bad offensive line and while Derek Carr has been sacked only seven times, he has been under constant pressure and the Broncos bring in a top ten pressure rank. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Patriots fell to 1-2 on the season following a home loss against the Ravens despite outgaining Baltimore by 83 yards as turnovers were the difference with New England having four costly ones. That has been the problem in keeping the scoring down with the quarterback being the biggest detriment but things could be different here. Mac Jones will be out for the Patriots but at this point, going with Brian Hoyer is not necessarily a downgrade with his veteran presence as Jones is coming off a no-touchdown, three-interception game as his passer rating has plummeted to 76.2 which is ahead of only Justin Field among qualified quarterbacks. Yet, the line has gone up four points after it was announced he will be out and he is not worth four points unless there is a severe backup downgrade which is not the case here. New England is ranked No. 10 in both total offense and total defense which is rare for a losing team to possess and while we expect Hoyer to be just fine, the defense will play a big role here against an offense that has not clicked yet. The Packers have bounced back from their opening week loss against the Vikings but beating the Bears was nothing special and while taking out Tampa Bay may look good, the Buccaneers are far from full strength on offense so the last two weeks have inflated their defensive rankings. Aaron Rodgers is third in the league in completion percentage but has not been able to get a ton of production with a lot of check downs as his yards per attempt average is way down the list and he has only four touchdown passes. Offensively, they are No. 13 overall but just No. 27 in scoring and limiting Green Bay to field goals is of importance in this matchup with the big point spread in what should be a closer than expected game. a big weakness of the Packers defense has been against the run and we will see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to take pressure of Hoyer and they can succeed. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) New England Patriots

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC South Game of the Month. Indianapolis got over the hump following a pair of embarrassments against Houston and Jacksonville and while we were on the Colts last week, it was a fortunate victory as it was more of a Chiefs loss than a Colts win. The offense remains stagnate as the Colts are averaging only 13.3 ppg which is dead last in the NFL and after putting up 517 total yards against the Texans, they have put up only 477 total yards combined in their last two games. Matt Ryan is coming off his best game with a 105.9 passer rating but the offense still stalled and he still does not look comfortable and his overall rating of 77.2 is third lowest in the NFL, ahead of only Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Defensively, Indianapolis has been solid and last week could have gotten out of hand but Kansas City had four drives inside the Colts 40-yard line and came away with just three total points. Tennessee is also coming off its first win of the season as it defeated Las Vegas which was a much needed bounce back from that blowout loss against the Bills. The Titans won by only two points but were in control throughout but let up in the second half and were a Raiders missed two-point conversion away from a likely overtime game. Tennessee scored touchdowns on its firth three possessions of the game and can certainly build on that in this divisional game as they are getting value this week based on the results of last week and not what actually transpired as those results could have been a lot different. The Titans have been below average on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 26 in total offense and total defense with most of that due to the Bills loss but the line has moved in our favor despite 75 percent of early tickets being on Tennessee giving us a solid reverse line move. We saw this last week on the other side as the majority of the money came in on the Chiefs yet the line came down with sharp Colts action taking more priority. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (253) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Detroit is off to a 1-2 start with both losses being close and it blew a big chance last week against the Vikings as the Lions allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by four points. In the first game against the Eagles, Detroit lost by just three points but was dominated throughout as it was a late charge in garbage time that got the game close. While they take a step down in competition here, they are now in some unfamiliar territory looking for a result that has been rare as they go from underdogs in the first three games to a significant favorite this week and the Lions have won only two times by more than a touchdown in their last 31 games. The offense has led the way but Detroit is down players on Sunday as it two top playmakers and banged up from last week with D'Andre Swift ruled out and Amon-Ra St. Brown very questionable and these are two big hits on the No. 3 ranked offense in the league. This team is horrible defensively as they are ranked No. 29 in total defense and No. 32 in scoring defense and while the Seattle offense has been in slow motion, this is a good matchup for the Seahawks. Seattle played well last week against Atlanta but was unable to make a stop when needed and penalties and a crucial sack killed its last chance on offense yet it still outgained the Falcons by 34 yards. The Seahawks have struggled in the running game this season as they have been outrushed in all three games but finally get a positive matchup here with Swift on the sidelines while facing a Detroit defense that is ranked No. 27 against the rush and this will be a big dynamic for this game. Detroit is a blitz-heavy defense and that could bite the Lions here as Geno Smith is a veteran that can pick up the blitz and work through it as he is 22-25 for 204 yards and one touchdown when facing that pressure. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (261) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Dolphins are coming off a big home win over Buffalo in a game they probably should not have won and have taken over first place in the AFC East after their perfect 3-0 start. The upset victory already put Miami in a bad situation but adding to that is hitting the road on a short week after playing a game where the heat index of over 100 degrees was a huge factor and that is something that can affect the players going into this game. The Dolphins were outgained by 285 total yards as the offense managed only 212 yards and while that was against what is considered one of the best defenses in the league, Buffalo was banged up on that side of the ball with the heat taking its toll on others that made it through. This comes after the wild win in Baltimore the previous week where Miami came back from a 21-point fourth quarter deficit and a divisional home win over New England to open the season. We have already seen this number move in the Dolphins favor with early money hitting the Bengals side and will likely continue to do so. Cincinnati finally got into the win column as it defeated the Jets by 15 points following an overtime loss against Pittsburgh and a loss against Dallas and its backup quarterback. The Bengals were crushed by turnovers and sacks in those first two games and they kept those in check against New York as they gave it away only once while surrendering just two sacks. They get a break again here as the Dolphins have an average pass rush where they have accumulated only six sacks through the first three games and the wear and tear from the Sunday heat is not going to help. Joe Burrow is coming off his best game thanks to the offensive line that kept him mostly upright and the Dolphins defense comes in ranked No. 31 in total yards and No. 31 in passing yards so he should continue his ascent back. On the other side, Cincinnati has played well defensively, albeit against some poor offensive units, but are ranked No. 9 in total defense despite being put into some tough field position situations from the offense. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 86-36 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (102) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Giants have escaped the first two weeks of the season. New York won at Tennessee after going for and making a two-point conversion after a touchdown with a minute remaining and then took the game following a missed field goal from the Titans and last week against the Panthers, the Giants made a late game-winning 56-yard field goal, one of four field goals on the day as the offense continues to stall. New York is ranked No. 23 in total offense and No. 31 in passing offense and while it is a small sample size, this is what we expected. This line has flipped which is no surprise based on the Prescott injury. The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games following consecutive wins, failing to cover all eight of those, and speaking of consecutive, they have covered only one time over their last night games after consecutive losses to the opponents so no double-revenge factor here. While the Cowboys offense is without Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush played a solid game at quarterback in relief as he went 19-31 for 235 yards and a touchdown and it is an edge that he has been in the system for a few years and he responded last season as well in his lone start against Minnesota in a primetime road game as he was 24-40 for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The defense has been great thus far as Dallas is top ten in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense through two games. This is a swing game for the Cowboys as they are no longer the favorite to win the NFC East and falling two games behind the Eagles in the division is not ideal after only three games. Dallas is 11-3 ATS over its last 14 conference games while coving eight of its last nine games on the road. Here, we play against home favorites outscored by opponents by four or more ppg last season, versus division opponents. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (489) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Denver escaped with a win against the Texans last week as it won 16-9 following a season opening loss at Seattle and with the two unexpected results, the Broncos come in as home underdogs. A lot of this can be attributed to head coach Nathaniel Hackett who has made some questionable calls and is already considered a questionable hire but he should settle in once he gets more familiar with his personnel. To be fair, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 16 in QBR as he is completing fewer than 59 percent of his passes but he can be given a hall pass here being involved in a brand new system and now in his third game, he should only get better even though he will be facing the best defense he has seen through three games. The Broncos defense has been strong since a slow start against Seattle in the opener as they have not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters. We can see Denver improving game-by-game going forward and can show what is has right here. The 49ers lost quarterback Trey Lance for the season but having the best backup in the league helps as Jimmy Garoppolo came in and had a decent game, going 13-21 for 154 yards and a touchdown but the offense was not great overall with just 373 total yards. Garoppolo is definitely an upgrade here based on his experience and his 37-18 record as a starter in the NFL but as mentioned, he will be facing a tough defense here and easily the best one the 49ers have faced in the early part of the season. Similar to Denver, San Francisco has played no one so it is hard to get a measure on this team especially playing its first game in horrible weather but we do know this is a good roster but not in a good spot here with the Broncos playing their second primetime game and first one at home. This is definitely an overreaction line from last week as the line has flipped from Denver being favored at home, which it should be, to the 49ers now being favored based on the lookahead line. 10* (488) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC Game of the Month. The Falcons have looked better than expected through the first two game as they lost a tough one at home against the Saints and fell short in the comeback against the Rams last week. This would normally be a tough travel situation for Atlanta playing out west in back-to-back weeks but the Falcons have practiced in Seattle all week instead of making another round trip to the west coast and that is a big edge. The Falcons have a big edge in this matchup in the running game as they are ranked No. 7 offensively and No. 15 defensively and going up against bad rushing units on both sides. Marcus Mariota has done a decent job in his first season in Atlanta as he is ranked No. 11 in QBR at 59.4 and his completion percentage of 62.7 percent should see a big increase here against a Seattle defense that is without its best player in safety Jamal Adams who is gone for the season. And he has done this without tight end Kyle Pitts who has only four catches which is surprising with Mariota typically targeting tight ends in check down spots. This is only the second time that the Seahawks have been favored with Geno Smith at quarterback with the first coming against Jacksonville last season and while the Falcons are not considered a very good team, the Seattle offense has really only had one good quarter on offense through the first two games. The only scoring for the Seahawks last week came from an 86-yard blocked field goal return by Mike Jackson as the offense stalled with a poor game from Smith and no running game to back him up. The Seahawks have been outgained 806-469 in their first two games and they are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing at only 56 ypg. The defense has been ok but not enough to carry the anemic offense as the Seahawks are ranked No. 24 in total defense and passing defense and No. 25 in rushing defense and while the scoring defense is ranked No. 15, that can be attributed to the two Denver fumbles near the goal line that resulted in zero points. This is not a good team at any level. 10* (483) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. No one in the public wants to bet on a team that was shutout in its previous game but that is exactly what we are going against here. The Colts were blanked 24-0 against Jacksonville which was shockingly their eight straight loss to the Jaguars on the road. That dropped them to 0-1-1 following a tie against the Texans in Week One and to come away without a victory against the two worst teams in the division is a problem. It was a tale of two different games as Indianapolis racked up 517 yards against Houston and that total offensive output went down by nearly 300 yards against the Jaguars as Matt Ryan was terrible by going 16-30 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions but he is now playing in his first home game. the situation could not be much worse for the Colts as 0-2 teams struggle to make the postseason and with the third game against a Super Bowl contender, it may look bleak but a close game is all we need with this number. The majority of the money has come in on the Chiefs yet the line has come down with sharp action taking more priority so we are getting a solid reverse line move and the public could push this number back up closer to game time. The Chiefs have looked every bit the Super Bowl contender as they destroyed Arizona and then took out the Chargers are home last Thursday night but are now in a tough spot going back on the road against a desperate team. There is not much bad to say about Kansas City as the offense has been just fine without Tyreke Hill but the defense did struggle last week as it allowed over 400 yards and was bailed out by a pick six from 99 yards that caused a 14-point swing and ended up being the difference but still failed to cover. The Chiefs may have a lookahead as they have a big game at Tampa Bay next week. NFL home underdogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 occurrences. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that was a good offensive team from last season averaging 24 or more. This situation is 46-23 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (472) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets are coming off a miracle win over the Browns and the reason it can be considered a miracle is that they were a Cleveland kneel down away from losing 23-14 but Nick Chubb elected to take the touchdown allowing enough time for a touchdown drive-onsides kick recovery-touchdown drive finish for New York. The Jets were getting dominated up to that point as they had been outgained in the fourth quarter 136-8 going into those final two drives. Joe Flacco looked like the Joe Flacco that once ruled the powerful Ravens offense but we cannot see him putting together another effort like last week. But wait. He has produced two straight 300+ yard games passing so maybe New York is on to something here as opposed to starting Mike White but it took Flacco 103 pass attempts to get to those numbers and his 6.0 yards per attempt average is tied for No. 28 in the league and he happens to be tied with his opponent but more on that later. If the Jets had lost like they should have, this line would be a lot higher. Cincinnati has fallen into the Super Bowl hangover scenario as it has lost its first two games against teams that did not start the same quarterback last season. That is not ideal and while teams have had a hard time getting into the playoffs after a 0-2, this is the ideal matchup to right the ship. After a five-turnover and seven-sack game against the Steelers in Week One, Joe Burrow was sacked six times against Dallas as the offensive line, which made offseason improvements, has not looked good but the first two games were against good pass rushing defenses and Burrow will not be facing big pressure for the first time. The Jets have only three sacks and five pressures this season per Pro Football Reference so we should see Burrow go off for a big game finally. Cincinnati has moved from -6 to -4.5 based on the results from last week after being -7 last week at Dallas and while the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott and a few other key starters, the Jets are not nearly a field goal better than the current Dallas team so there is solid value here. 10* (465) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both off to 1-1 starts with all four of the games coming down to the final plays. Cleveland is coming off a brutal loss against the Jets as it blew a 13-point lead with under two minutes remaining as it had a blown coverage, allowed a successful onsides kick and let the Jets drive right down the field for the winning score. That thwarted a shot at the Browns starting a season 2-0 for the first time since 1993 after winning their first game on a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds remaining. Rebound or regression this week? Obviously, playing a divisional opponent will have Cleveland ready for this game but that loss is going to sit for a while and it does not have a great matchup here and Cleveland is laying more than it should be after opening as a field goal favorite. Myles Garrett is listed as questionable and there is a good possibility that he will not play but either way, he will not be 100 percent which will help out the Pittsburgh offense that has predicably struggled out of the gate. The Steelers escaped Cincinnati with an overtime victory thanks to the Bengals kicking game but were not as fortunate last week as the offense was horrible, putting up only 243 total yards so the fact they only lost by three points was fortunate. The defense played well without T.J. Watt and should do so again here against Jacoby Brissett who was solid last week but that was against a Jets defense and he was not good in the first game against the Panthers. Stopping the run will be at the forefront here for the Steelers and they have been good as they are tied for No. 10, allowing 4.0 ypc. Cleveland does not lay points very often in divisional games as the Browns are 0-6-1 ATS in this role the last two seasons. With a pair of solid defenses playing to a low total, the value is on the Steelers with an overinflated line and while going against a big, early line move can be the wrong way to look, it is too much of an adjustment with what we have seen over the first two weeks. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in conference games. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Eagles are coming off a win over the Lions by just three points while the Vikings took care of the Packers with no problem and because of those wins, the Eagles are underpriced. For Philadelphia, it dominated the majority of the game against Detroit but the Lions made it close with garbage yards and points so the Eagles +69 yards is also skewed. The running game dominated the Lions are they rushed for 216 yards on 39 carries (5.5 ypc) and this has been a consistent going back to last season as the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Jalen Hurts can have a big game through the air as the Vikings were not tested against Green Bay and they possess a pair of below average cornerbacks so both A.J. Brown and Devonta Freeman could have great games. Defensively, Philadelphia was solid up until late in the game and they have the defense that can keep the Minnesota passing offense in check as Darius Slay and James Bradberry are two of the better shutdown corners. Minnesota was never in danger against the Packers as it scored early in the first quarter and was never pressed. The offense had 395 yards with Justin Jefferson leading the way to a monster receiving game but again, the Eagles possess a much better secondary than Green Bay and coupled with a solid pass rush against Kirk Cousins, the Vikings passing game can be slowed down here. Minnesota ran for 126 yards on 28 carries (4.5 ypc) which was fairly solid and it will be up to the Eagles run stop unit that improved on paper to defend the run but did not do much against Detroit do a better job here. Minnesota finished No. 18 in DVOA last season with a preseason ranking of No. 20 so last week cannot show us a true indication of the how the defense is. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (292) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Denver is one of the three big favorites late Sunday afternoon and this one seems to set up the best for a runaway. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks Monday night in the return of Russell Wilson who was on the sidelines with the game on the line and that will have him ready to roll in his home debut in Denver. The Broncos should have won the game before that as they had two fumbles at the Seattle goal line that completely changed the flow of the game as well as going 0-4 in redzone efficiency. The Broncos outgained Seattle 433-253 as the running game on had 20 carries but had a 5.2 ypc average and Wilson was excellent going 29-42 (69 percent) for 340 yards and a touchdown with six different receivers having at least two catches. The defense did its job after allowing an opening touchdown as it settled in and has another great matchup here. The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. The Texans came through with a tie against the Colts which can be considered a win as they were outclassed but got the breaks they needed. Houston was outgained 517-299 as Matt Ryan passed for 352 yards and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards and it has another brutal test here and we do not expect the defense to get the breaks. Davis Mills had a very solid game and one of the reasons we took the Texas was the home split for Mills as last season he had a 109.6 quarterback rating at home where he completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,725 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception compared to a 63.1 rating on the road where he had just 939 yards with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. The running game had only 77 yards on 28 carries (2.8 ypc) and will get stuffed again. A couple misleading finals gives us value here and the fact it is double digits is no issue as these favorites have hit at a 60.4 percent clip since 2016. 10* (284) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Patriots obviously did not look very good last week as they scored only seven points but they did a decent job moving the ball as they got into Miami territory in all but two drives but they had three turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, while also turning it over on downs once. The offense had only 271 yards but the possessions where they gave it back definitely hurt the numbers and we should see a cleaner game here. Mac Jones was pretty pedestrian as the back issue might have played into it but he still did complete 70 percent of his passes. They will face a tough defense but a different one from last week. Defensively, New England looked good as they allowed 307 yards and just 20 points and that unit should flourish in this matchup. The rushing defense allowed only 65 yards on 23 carries (2.8 ypc) and anything close to a repeat of that is ideal. The Steelers got the job done last week in a very unconventional way as they were outgained 432-267 but benefitted by the defense forcing five turnovers with a lot of those taking place after Cincinnati was moving the ball. Pittsburgh needed a blocked extra point to force overtime and a missed field goal from Evan McPherson to pull out the victory. The Steelers rushed for just 75 yards on 22 carries (3.4 ypc) and now Najee Harris is banged up and while he will likely play, he is not 100 percent. Mitch Trubisky was, well, Mitch Trubisky as he checked down constantly and was just 21-38 (55.3 percent) and if the Patriots can sack Tua three times, they will have no problem applying pressure here. With the exception of the turnovers, the defense was not good as they allowed 133 yards rushing on 34 carries (3.9 ypc) and while Joe Burrow was intercepted four times and lost a fumble, the offensive line had a negative say in that. To top it off, T.J. Watt is likely out for the season which cannot be understated. 10* (275) New England Patriots

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. Baltimore was never in danger against the Jets but it was outgained by 104 total yards and while a lot of that was due to garbage time yards for the Jets, the Ravens offense was off. Lamar Jackson came out slow and ended up completing only 57 percent of his passes and while the weather did play a small part, his receiving corps is not very good and they did not get a lot out of tight end Mark Andrews. Additionally, they ran for only 63 yards on 21 carries (3.0 ypc) and Baltimore took a blow by losing tackle Ja'Wuan James for the season. They will be banking on the defense early on until there is more cohesion on the offensive side and while the Jets did not provide much to throw at the Ravens, this is a much tougher matchup as the Miami speed could cause some problems. Another season ending injury occurred on this side of the ball as well as cornerback Kyle Fuller is done. Miami won a pretty ugly game as it continued the home dominance against New England and while the overall grade for the Dolphins is mixed, getting that first game out of the way with a lot of new parts provides positive movement going forward. Tua Tagovailoa was solid as he went 23-33 (69.7 percent) for 270 yards and a touchdown and the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 163 yards and that one touchdown. The running game needs a push as newcomers Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert had just 41 yard rushing on 17 carries (2.4 ypc) and while the matchup is not great, the improved offensive line should get better game by game. This number opened at -4.5 in most places last Sunday and the early non-public money came in to knock it down to -3.5 and getting the hook above that key number is big. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in conference games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. Tampa Bay won on opening night in Dallas as it was not a great effort and the Buccaneers were fortunate to face a bad offense that eventually lost Dak Prescott for a good part of the game. Tom Brady was average as he threw for only 212 yards and he struggled against pressure and while he was sacked only twice, he was hurried a lot and a lot of that comes down to the offensive line that was banged up entering the game and now they have to deal with an injury to left tackle Donovan Smith and is listed as questionable. The star of the offense was running back Leonard Fournette who ran for 127 yards on 21 carries (6.1 ypc) and he will definitely be a focal point for the Saints to slow down. As mentioned, facing a poor offense aided the defense but will have a tougher time here against the Saints that possess a lot more weapons. The Saints rallied past the Falcons on a 51-yard Will Lutz field goal in the final minute after falling behind 26-10 early in the fourth quarter. That provides some solid momentum heading into another divisional matchup and a much bigger one at home but are catching points. Jameis Winston took a while to get going but he closed the game strong in the comeback victory and he finished 23-34 (67.6 percent) with two touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. Jarvis Landry was the big target as he caught seven passes for 114 yards while Michael Thomas returned off a long layoff to grab a pair of touchdowns. Alvin Kamara only ran the ball nine times but at a 4.3 ypc clip and he can be effective hear as well after Ezekiel Elliott ran for 52 yards on 10 carries (5.2 ypc) until Dallas abandoned the run. The defense will have to improve as the normally strong rushing defense allowed Cordarrelle Paterson to run for 120 yards. Here, we play on home teams off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. The Giants pulled off the upset in Tennessee as they fell behind 13-0 at halftime, which could have and should have been a lot worse, and now they head home as the favorite which is too overaggressive after just one game. Saquon Barkley led the offense as he ran for 164 yards on 18 carries (9.1 ypc) with a big 68-yard run being a big part of that. Daniel Jones was not horrible as he was accurate by going 17-21 for 188 yards but that included a 65-yard touchdown pass so it was far from explosive other than that and he was also sacked five times. That will be problem here again. The defense did a good job in stopping the run as they allowed 93 yards but did give up 4.0 ypc as Tennessee did not need to run with Ryan Tannehill throwing for 266 yards on a strong 13.3 yards per completion. Defensive ends Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari did not play last week and both are questionable again. Carolina lost a tough one against Cleveland as it took the lead with 1:13 remaining but allowed the Browns to get into field goal range where they hit the 58-yard game winner. The running game was non-existent as the Panthers ran the ball only 19 times and the biggest part of the offense was absent from the awful gameplan as Christian McCaffrey had just three touches in the first 25 minutes in the game. Baker Mayfield was okay in his debut as he was 16-27 for 235 yards with a touchdown but did have one interception. He was sacked four times from the great Cleveland pass rush but that should not be a worry here. The one concern is the Panthers rushing defense as they allowed 217 yards last week and Barkley looked explosive again but we expect that to be better here against a poor offensive line. The strength of the passing defense will hardly be tested here. Here, we play against home favorites that had a losing record last season, in conference games. This situation is 163-97 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Week Two of the NFL season is all about overreactions. One game in and in a lot of cases, opinions are formed based on those performances and while it can hold some water, the circumstances play a part which can lead to these overreactions. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to be one of the top teams in the league and after its performance in the desert, the Chiefs are going to be even more of a public team than before and this is where a circumstance does come into play. They faced an Arizona defense that was decimated with injuries, so being favored on the road and covering while dominating the game comes as no surprise and because they outgained the Cardinals by 206 yards in a 23-point win, this line has moved off the key number of the -3 opener. Patrick Mahomes looked awesome last week and he should have but now he faces a completely different defense that will be applying pressure all night, something Arizona was unable to do as it registered no sacks. The Chargers gained some revenge last week with the win over the Raiders who kept them out of the playoffs last season after the season ending loss in overtime. Hitting the road on a short week is never easy but it is not as bad in Week Two as opposed to later in the season when fatigue is more of a factor. Los Angeles put up 355 yards of offense which was pretty average as the running game could get nothing going as they rushed for just 76 yards on 31 carries (2.5 ypc) and should have more success here. Justin Herbert was excellent even after Keenan Allen went down as he was 26-34 for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He spread the ball around to nine different pass catchers that each had at least two receptions. Going back to the pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles sacked Derek Carr six times. This series has been tight over the last few years with Kansas City winning five of the eight meetings since 2018 and all three of those Chargers wins were in Kansas City. In the eight games, Los Angeles outgained the Chiefs six times with the two exceptions coming last season in the 1-1 split. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 127-72 ATS (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This game sets up pretty similar to that of the Eagles/Lions game where we have a very public Super Bowl side future laying a touchdown on the road and the said public all over that side in Game One. Denver got the top quarterback prize in the offseason, trading for Russell Wilson and trading a lot for him but other than that, this is pretty much the same team that has missed the playoffs for six straight seasons. The big narrative heading into this season in that the last two Super Bowl champions had a losing record in the previous season, brought in a new quarterback and won it all but that is such a meaningless reason to back a team. Wilson struggled last season but to his credit, he did play part of the season hurt with an injured finger yet he had better weapons in Seattle in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett although he does have an upgraded offensive line. Still, not a reason to be laying a touchdown on the road. Seattle is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFC but do not tell that to the Bears as we saw Sunday, Week One is very volatile and there were trap lines all over the place. The Seahawks will go with Geno Smith at quarterback who is a below average starter but he went 3-0 against the number last season in the three games he played without Wilson and he has been around this league long enough to know how to manage a situation as does his head coach. Clearly, the Seahawks will want to have success running the ball to shorten the game and keep the ball away from Wilson and the fact that linebacker Josey Jewell is out for the Broncos is a huge break for Seattle. This line opened at 3.5 and has been bet through the roof and we are going against that here in what looks like another live underdog opening week. 10* (482) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Green Bay enters the season the favorite to win the NFC North yet again at -175 and is second to Tampa Bay to win the conference at +400 but there are concerns that should be weeded out by midseason but early on, there could be some chemistry issues on offense. The loss of receiver Davante Adams, who accounted for over one-third of the Packers receiving yards, is the obvious big absence as he has been reunited with his college quarterback in Las Vegas and the lone major holdover at receiver is Allen Lazard and he is banged up heading into the season opener and listed as questionable. The offensive line will be better as the season goes along with the return of left tackle David Bakhtiari who played only one game last season but he is also on the injury list as questionable. The Green Bay defense was one of the worst against the run as far as average carries as it allowed 4.7 ypc which was third worst in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers has done it in the past with a skeleton offense but this is not the ideal opening game. Minnesota made changes on the sidelines with Kevin O'Connell taking over as head coach, coming over from the Rams where he was the offensive coordinator and he has an exceptional offense already in place to work with. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the most criticized signal callers in the league and probably for simply not taking his team deep into the playoffs as his numbers speak for themselves. He was No. 4 in quarterback rating last season, ahead of Brady, Mahomes and Allen and over the last three seasons, he is tied for No. 5 in the PFF ratings and he is underrated. Eight of the Vikings nine losses last season came by eight or fewer points so being competitive is not a problem. The Vikings are 17-6 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years and while they are a small dog here, they probably should not be as we have this one as a pickem and the extra point and a half is important for teaser players as it crosses four key numbers. 10* (476) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Cleveland enters the season as an unknown because of the quarterback situation but that aside, the Browns still have one of the best rosters in the league. Jacoby Brissett is capable to handle this offense and he will not be asked to win but to just maintain control and use everything around him. His receiving corps is stacked with newly acquired Amari Cooper, rookie David Bell and a very underrated Donovan Peoples-Jones, he has a great offensive line in front of his and has one of the best running backs behind him in Nick Chubb. Cleveland will face a tough defense in the Panthers which finished No. 2 in the NFL in total defense but No. 21 in scoring defense and Cleveland has the pieces to exploit this unit. This is a big year for Carolina and head coach Matt Rhule who is on the hot seat after winning just 10 games in his first two seasons. A lot of the problems were with injuries, namely Christian McCaffrey who has played in only 11 of the past 33 games, and quarterback where there has been no consistency. Enter Baker Mayfield who won the starting job over Sam Darnold which was not a difficult thing to do and the big narrative here is Baker playing his former team in the first game of the season, thus adding a revenge factor. It is unlikely that he is going to step up his play just because of the opponent and this is the first game of the season for both teams so there is no added incentive on either side. No narrative. With the Deshaun Watson status still up in the air over the summer, Cleveland opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was bet up to -5 in some spots and now the line is +1.5 or +2 so we are seeing a swing of up to seven points and sorry, no player is worth a line shift like that unless the backup is completely incompetent which is not the case here. A year ago, Cleveland was a sleeper Super Bowl pick and this year, it is nothing close to that so the pressure aspect of needing to win is gone so simply playing looser is beneficial which makes them a live dog here. 10* (459) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Much is said about the Super Bowl hangover and how the losing team from the big game tends to struggle the following season and we can totally see that here. Cincinnati will have the target on its back heading into the season following that disappointing three-point loss to the Rams and many are projecting a pretty big drop off in the highly potent AFC. The Bengals won 10 regular season games, but caught fire in the playoffs toward their Super Bowl run with the MVP not being Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase or Joe Mixon but kicker Even McPherson. The biggest issue last season was pass protection as Burrow was dropped 70 times and while there was an offensive line upgrade in the offseason, it could take some time for the three new pieces to fall into place. Another concern is Burrow himself who missed time in camp due to an appendectomy and he had to fight through an infection where he apparently lost 20 pounds. He is not 100 percent. The Steelers are not on many radars this season and they probably should not be but with head coach Mike Tomlin on the sidelines, this is always a dangerous team. They were not a very good football team last season but still were able to sneak into the playoffs before succumbing to the Chiefs and it is now 15 consecutive seasons that Tomlin has not produced a losing record as the Pittsburgh coach. Obviously, the big change is Ben Roethlisberger has retired and Mitch Trubisky will take over as the starter and while some see this as a downgrade, it is not. Roethlisberger finished last season No. 25 in QBR and if he can take them to the playoffs, Trubisky can. The offensive line is a slight concern but do not have a horrible matchup here. The Steelers defense is not what it used to be but can still get to the quarterback and that alone should be enough to keep them in this game. In the meeting here last season in November, the Bengals were 3.5-point favorites and now it is nearly double that and that is too much of an overadjustment. 10* (461) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Another new look Colts team takes the field in 2022 with yet another new quarterback at the helm. This is the sixth straight season that Indianapolis will be starting a different quarterback (Jacoby Brissett twice sandwiched around Andrew Luck) as it is starting to rival the Browns in this category. Carson Wentz was not horrible last season as he finished No. 9 in the NFL in QBR but the last two games of the season doomed him as all they needed was one win and they lost to the Raiders and Jaguars to miss the postseason. Is Matt Ryan really an upgrade? Only time will tell and while he had a worse roster to work with last season, he was No. 21 in QBR, his lowest since 2015 and his 20 touchdowns were the fewest since his rookie season. He definitely has better pieces around him in Indianapolis as well as a better defense but laying this many points on the road in a divisional game is a lot to ask. Houston is once again expected to finish near the bottom in the AFC with a lot of questions all over the field. That being said, it is a new season with every team on a level playing field, to an extent, and the Texans will come out and see where they stand against a divisional opponent. Last season, they rolled over Jacksonville in the season opener and while the Jaguars/Colts comparison is not a fair one, it does show that things can be different early in the season. David Mills remains the starting quarterback and there is a mix of opinions of him being a band-aid to the heir apparent or having the upside to become a full time starter. Like Ryan, only time will tell. One thing is certain and that is he plays much better at home than on the road. He had a 109.6 quarterback rating at home where he completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,725 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception compared to a 63.1 rating on the road where he had just 939 yards with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. Defensively, stopping Jonathan Taylor will be the key and while Houston allowed the second most rushing yards last season, they were ran on the second most, ahead of only the Jets. 10* (468) Houston Texans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. We think Buffalo will have a chip on its shoulder this season and why not take it out on the defending Super Bowl Champions. The last time we saw Buffalo, or actually did not see them as they did not get a chance on offense in overtime against the Chiefs, we saw a disappointed team and one that is going to hungry from the start. The linemakers have agreed with this, making them the favorite to win the Super Bowl and they have seen a big move here, going from an underdog to a favorite on the road. The Bills are legitimately improved from last season, albeit slightly, with some key additions at wide receiver and on the defensive line. While the Bills offense gets most of the credit and probably rightfully so with Josh Allen and co. marching up and down the field at will but the Bills defense was the best in the NFL last season, finishing No. 1 in opponents scoring, opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play. They will be without corner Tre'Davious White which is a tough loss but safety Jordan Poyer looks good to go after having elbow issues during the preseason and of course the signing of Von Miller is a big bonus. They will have a test against the Rams offense that is nearly back in place from last season with Robert Woods gone and replaced by Allen Robinson which was their only major weapon change and it is a wash, and the retirement of tackle Andrew Whitworth is the other big one. Not much has changed on either side enough to not be able to base a lot of the numbers from last season and the Rams should be a slight favorite or a pickem but not an underdog of this size. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 and 2019, the defending champions have gone 14-2 and they have never played an inferior team so it is not a skewed record. Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems that averaged 24 or more ppg last season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (452) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Super Bowl Annihilator. The Rams are the play here and while we were hoping for a better number, this does have potential to turn into a one-sided game should Los Angeles get off to a quick start which has been their mantra a lot of the time. A big play offense with three top ranked receivers will be facing the No. 26 ranked passing defense and while adjustments were made against the Chiefs in the second half two weeks ago, it will be more difficult here against a different style offense. Cincinnati has now covered seven straight games and that is surely a reason that the public is riding the Bengals. This is not a good matchup for Cincinnati with its weak offensive line facing the best pass rush it has seen this season. The Bengals allowed the most sacks in the NFL this season and while there is big play potential, seeing a lot of long down situations is not ideal. The Rams are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games off a division game. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (101) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Championship Game of the Year. The hype for this game has been around the fact that the 49ers have owned the Rams of late with six straight wins in this series. We can toss that out with a big reason being Matthew Stafford has been here for only two of those and the one home loss this season came in overtime. Stafford did not have a good game then as he threw for 238 yards and while he had three touchdowns, he had two picks but he has been very efficient in his two games since with four touchdowns and no interceptions while completing over 75 percent of his passes and posted passer ratings of 121.2 and 154.5 against two solid defenses. Obviously, San Francisco has played well with two road playoff wins but winning three in a row on the road has rarely happened. The San Francisco offense is diverse with Deebo Samuel being a huge factor but it is hard to trust Jimmy Garoppolo in this spot who has had a passer rating of 88 or less in his last four starts. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. 10* (324) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Divisional Star Attraction. The Rams are coming off a fairly easy performance in their Wild Card game against Arizona as they outgained the Cardinals by 192 total yards by limiting them to 183 yards of offense. The challenge will be greater this week but the defense showed what they are capable of and why they went after what they did to build a roster that takes them here and beyond. On the other side, the Rams are potent as they have won six of their last seven games while averaging 28 ppg featuring one of the best receiving corps in Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. If there is a weakness for Los Angeles to exploit, it is the Buccaneers passing defense which is ranked No. 21 in the NFL. The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Tampa Bay has won four straight games including a blowout against Philadelphia as they manhandled Jalen Hurts in his first ever playoff start. Offensively, the Buccaneers are humming along as usual as they have scored at least 30 points in five consecutive postseason games, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. They are ranked No. 2 in the league in both total offense and scoring offense and the pass rush of the Rams will be key here as giving Tom Bardy too much time is a recipe for disaster. The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 370 or more ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (315) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Green Bay is a tough team to get in front of as it is playing well with five straight wins with the first team playing the entire game, excluding the Week 18 game against Detroit. Of the 13 wins, six were by one possession and of the seven other ones, six were against non-playoff teams, the only other came against Pittsburgh which was obviously a marginal postseason squad. The Packers have not lost at home which is a big edge but the schedule was in their favor against a weak division and facing only one other playoff team. Of the 14 playoff teams, the Packers were ranked No. 10 in net yppl on offense and on defense, they had trouble stopping the run. The overall rank looks good but teams had to abandon the run when playing from behind and according to analytics, the Packers gave up the second-highest yards per rush in the league, and DVOA grades their rush defense 28th in the NFL. San Francisco has relied on its running game of late with Eli Mitchell carrying a heavy load and having great success and then throw in Deebo Samuel, and Green Bay could be in for a long night. Jimmy Garoppolo has taken a lot of scrutiny but dig deep and he has been ranked the No. 4 ranked passer in efficiency. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Arizona came up small last week as it had a chance to win the division but lost to Seattle and missed out on the opportunity to host a Wild Card playoff game. that is no issue with this team however as the Cardinals went 8-1 on the road with the lone loss coming at Detroit of all teams. After opening the season 7-0, they faltered down the stretch, losing four of their last five games but they did win the yardage battle in all four of those losses but penalties were a big issue in those games as they averaged 7.8 penalties in those defeats. One of those wins came here by 17 points as Arizona gashed the Rams defense for 216 yards rushing and the offense was one of the best as the Cardinals ranked No. 11 or higher in all four key offensive categories. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Rams are coming in off a bit of a downer as they blew a 17-0 lead against the 49ers and lost in overtime but they can thank the Seahawks for giving them the NFC West Division title. That snapped a five-game winning streak which quelled some of the momentum Los Angeles had but four of those wins were against non-playoff teams and while the one win at Arizona, the Rams were outgained by 91 yards but benefited from two Kyler Murray interceptions. The Rams were also a better team on the road as they went 7-2 while going 5-3 at home that included a 1-3 record against playoff teams. The Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Arizona is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season while the Rams are 0-7 ATS after having won four or five out of their last six games this season. 10* (151) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. The Cowboys took out Philadelphia in their regular season finale as they played starters longer than expected but it was a meaningless game that added to their inflated win total. Dallas finished with the No. 25 ranked schedule in the league and of all of the teams ranked within the top 10 of the power rankings, it played the fewest teams in that group with just three games, going 1-2 and that one victory was also the lowest. This is important considering San Francisco is part of that group and presents a tough matchup which we will get into. The Cowboys have the top ranked offense in the NFL, both in yards and in scoring but those are inflated by putting up 51 and 56 points in two of their last three games. The Cowboys are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. San Francisco needed to win last Sunday to ensure a trip to the postseason, or a Saints loss which was unlikely, and it came through with an overtime win over the Rams. The 49ers erased a 17-0 deficit and tied the game with 26 seconds left to force overtime and the confidence level of this team is as high as it has been all season. They won seven of their last nine games and while only two of those were against playoff teams, both were on the road where they went 6-3 on the season. The big factor over the second part of the season was the resurgence of the defense that ended up finishing No. 3 in total defense and finished in the top ten in all four key defensive categories. The 49ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 370 or more ypg, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. this situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Saturday Game of the Month. The Raiders pulled off the unthinkable as it finished the season with four straight wins and all of those played a part in knocking those teams out of the playoffs. This included a huge road win at Indianapolis to stay alive and then a home underdog win over the Chargers to get into the postseason. The season could have been a lot worse as four of their 10 wins came in overtime while another three came by four points or less. On the flip side, of the seven Las Vegas losses, six were by seven points or more and overall, the Raiders were outscored by 17 ppg in those defeats. Las Vegas is middle of the pack in total offense and defense and in the bottom half in scoring offense and scoring defense and have a challenge here. Raiders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Bengals secured the AFC North title with a thrilling win over the Chiefs in Week 17 before resting their starters last week to get ready for their first playoff game since 2015. They will be seeking their first playoff win since 1990 as Cincinnati has gone 0-8 in its last eight postseason games. This team has the makeup to make a run as they won five of their last seven games prior to that Cleveland game, with one of those losses coming in overtime. The offense is clicking and the defense finished No. 9 in the league in quarterback pressures while they should be able to take away the Raiders running game as they finished No. 5 in rushing defense. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 85-36 ATS (70.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (142) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFC South Game of the Month. The Saints avoided playoff elimination by defeating the Panthers last week and they can clinch a playoff berth with a win here combined with a loss by the 49ers. Both games kick off at 4:25 ET so there will be scoreboard watching by New Orleans but first and foremost, the Saints have to take care of their own business. New Orleans is now 8-8 as it has won three of its last four games and while two those wins were against the Jets and Panthers, the other was against the Buccaneers and the Falcons should not show much resistance this week. New Orleans possesses the No. 8 ranked total defense in the league and its 19.7 ppg are good for No. 4 in the NFL. The offense has not been great with Taysom Hill but he does not have to be great here against a poor Falcons defense. The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record. Atlanta was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week with its loss to the Bills and there is just pride on the line that is remaining. The fact the Falcons made it to Week 17 with hopes still alive was surprising as they have underwhelmed on both sides of the ball, coming into this game ranked No. 26 in total offense, No. 27 in scoring offense, No. 24 in total defense and No. 29 in scoring defense. The Falcons have just one home win this season which came against Detroit in a game the Lions had a chance to win late. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 70 and 95 rushing ypg after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 95 and 125 rushing ypg. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (467) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Saturday Primetime Punisher. We played against Dallas last week as the Cardinals produced a wire-to-wire cover which sent Dallas out of the possibly of the chance of the top spot in the NFC and is currently in the No. 4 spot in the conference. Like last week, the Cowboys are overvalued once again as they have been moved to a touchdown favorite on the road. Both the Cowboys and Eagles have clinched playoff spots and Dallas is projected to have a home rematch with the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs should the percentages hold true with the games this week. Obviously, the Cowboys do not want to open the playoffs with a pair of losses but this should be another close game and grabbing the underdog here is a great value play. The Cowboys are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Eagles were able to clinch last week with their come-from-behind win over Washington coupled with the Vikings loss to the Packers. Philadelphia is playing its best football of the season as it has won four straight games and six of its last seven and while the opposition has been below average, building confidence is even more important. The Eagles have relied on their running game all season and will do so again here as they are ranked No. 1 in rushing offense and square off against the No. 15 ranked rushing defense. They have outgained their last seven opponents and by an average of 110.3 ypg. They can definitely win in their season finale but we are not even asking them to do that here. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (470) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Everything played out on Sunday, and not in a good way, for Cleveland as it was officially eliminated from playoff contention with Cincinnati, Las Vegas and Los Angeles all winning. The motivation level for the Browns should be at a low as they have nothing to play for with the exception of trying to beat their rival and eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs but looking at their own situation could easily outweigh that. It was a major disappointment this season for Cleveland which came in as a sleeper Super Bowl contender but never got anything going as poor execution, poor coaching at times and a poor passing game could not compliment a strong defense. The defensive effort on Monday is going to be a question mark but full focus is unlikely. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Pittsburgh is still alive in the AFC at 7-7-1 but it has to win out and get some help. After getting pummeled last week against Kansas City, the Steelers will not be a popular play but this is a good spot catching Cleveland at this time. While the playoffs are the big story, the future of Ben Roethlisberger is also a headline with his future in doubt indicating this probably will be his last home game. For what he has done with this franchise, every players will be giving 110 percent effort for him and to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both sides have been below average but the passing game has been surprisingly efficient at times as they are ranked No. 14 and that is what they have to bank on. The Steelers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. Here, we play against teams in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or fewer tpg forced, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 35-17 ATS (67.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (132) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Game of the Year. Dallas is a public team to begin with but after its dominating performance on Sunday Night Football that everybody saw, the Cowboys will be heavily bet again and we have already seen a big line move from the advanced line. Dallas clinched the NFC East this past week and still has something to play for as it will be looking to secure the No. 2 seed in the conference. The Cowboys offense poured it on against Washington to remain No. 1 in both total offense and scoring offense but will be facing a tough defense this week and things will not come as easy. The Cowboys are just No. 18 in total defense and they face a duel threat in Kyler Murray which is a whole new test. We could definitely see a letdown here after the blowout against their rival. The Cowboys are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. This was going to be a play on Arizona even before the Dallas game against Washington and now we are getting even more value with the Cardinals that are in desperate need for a win. Arizona has lost three straight games to fall from the top seed in the conference to a Wild Card team. This includes a bad loss against Detroit but they were competitive against the Rams and Colts so playing a top level team here is no problem. Despite the three losses, the Cardinals won the yardage battle in all three games so while everyone is looking at just the scores, digging into the box score is more important. They have surprisingly struggled at home but are 7-1 on the road including solid wins against the Titans, Rams and 49ers. The Cardinals are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 57-23 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. New Orleans is coming off a 9-0 win over Tampa Bay making this a letdown spot and on top of that, the Saints have been hit hard with players being placed on the COVID list. The offensive situation is not good as both Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill are on the COVID list, so Ian Book will start at quarterback so the already poor offense will struggle even more. The Saints defense has carried this team all season because of the poor offense but this is not a good matchup with the Dolphins despite Miami having its own struggles on offense because the Saints have a tough time containing the underneath pass. Additionally, the Saints have allowed 402 ypg at home which is worst in the NFL. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with six straight wins and at 7-7, it is still alive in the AFC Wild Card race. Miami has not been great on offense this season but it has played better of late and its strength counters the Saints weakness of defending the short pass. Miami likes to get the ball out quick and they can use that to their advantage here. The Dolphins total defense is right in the middle of the pack as is the scoring defense so they should have to problem containing the New Orleans offense. The schedule has been soft for the Dolphins during the winning streak but that is not a concern against this team. We have seen a complete flip with this line but it is justified. The Dolphins are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams averaging between 4.9 and 5.4 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.4 and 5.8 yppl. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (481) Miami Dolphins

This is s play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFC South Game of the Month. Tampa Bay is coming off a 9-0 loss against New Orleans to fall to 10-4 on the season and now sits in third place in the NFC. The shutout loss was just the third ever for Tom Brady, his first since 2006 and the fact the Saints did it should come as no surprise. He is 0-4 against New Orleans since joining Tampa Bay and it happens to be his only four game losing streak against any in his career. He is in a foul mood and that is not good for the Panthers. The injuries on the offense to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette are a concern but the Buccaneers are getting Antonio Brown back and Ronald Jones is not far behind Fournette so this offense will be fine. The Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Carolina is trash despite a 5-9 record as the offense has brought it down, ranked No. 28 overall and No. 25 in scoring offense. Head coach Matt Ruhle indicated that Cam Newton will start but Sam Darnold will see time as well so things could go from bad to worst with a lack of chemistry going through the whole offense. The Panthers have lost four straight games including a 17-point loss to Buffalo last week and they have been outgained in seven of their last 10 games. They have been solid defensively or should we say were as they have allowed 30 ppg during the four-game losing streak. This is not a good sign against a pissed off Brady who gets to face Carolina twice in the last three games. Carolina is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Here, we play against home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage after having lost four out of their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 36-15 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Cleveland has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games and it has won its last four games following a previous loss. Can the Browns win here following a loss against the Raiders? They definitely can but the line has gone from 4 to 7.5 in some spots so all we need is a close game. We will get a full effort from Cleveland as it needs to win out and get some help for a playoff spot. Green Bay had a top-10 run defense for most of the season but has struggled of late as it has allowed 143 yards and 137 yards to the Ravens and Bears respectively over their last two games. Cleveland will look to exploit this with its No. 4 rushing offense. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. The Packers have clinched their third straight NFC North title and have a one game lead in the conference to try and secure a first round bye so this is a big game for them also. Winning here will not be easy for the Browns as Green Bay has yet to lose at home while outscoring opponents by over 13 ppg. Only two of the six wins have come teams with a shot at the playoffs so facing a desperate team puts them in a tough spot. The Packers will not have injured LT David Bakhtiari or CB Jaire Alexander, even though they have been practicing. While the Cleveland run game needs to flourish, so does the defense and we think the unit steps up. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 25 points or more in four straight games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. We have two teams going in opposite directions that square off on Thursday night. San Francisco has won two straight games and five of its last six to improve to 8-6 and is sitting in the No. 6 spot in the NFC. The 49ers are projected at 83 percent to make the playoffs and while this game will not be easy, the momentum is on their side. The offense has improved to No. 12 overall and No. 13 in scoring while the defense in No. 6 overall and face a Titans team that is still hurt by injuries. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Tennessee has lost three of its last four games with the lone win coming against Jacksonville. The loss last week knocked them from the top spot in the AFC down to the No. 3 spot. The Titans have turned the ball over 13 times in those three losses while quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 41 times which is second most in the NFL. Defensively, the Titans are No. 10 0verall and No. 16 in points allowed so while they are above average, they face a surging offense and have seen only one decent offense over their last five games. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams averaging between 4.9 and 5.4 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.4 and 5.8 yppl. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (451) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Tuesday Primetime Punisher. Philadelphia is coming off its bye week and catches Washington in a vulnerable situation. The Eagles need this win to remain in the NFC Wild Card race and are now catching a much better number than what was on the board a few days ago. A win here would push them straight into the final wild-card spot with a little help. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Washington is coming off a loss to the Cowboys last week and it is now dealing with a ton of issues. The team has over a dozen players on their COVID-19/reserve list, including starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke and now seven coaches are in the protocol. Washinton had won four straight games prior to the Dallas loss but the last three were just one possession games. They are No. 20 in total offense and No. 20 in scoring offense but it is the other side that has been hit the worst with the defense needing to sign players from other practice squads to fill in. Washington is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games following a straight up loss. 10* (340) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Minnesota is at 6-7 following a win over Pittsburgh and its playoff hopes are very much alive. The Vikings will move up to the No. 7 spot if they beat the Bears tonight, and they will stay there if Washington loses Tuesday to the Eagles. They are ranked No. 4 in total offense and No. 9 in scoring offense and face a Chicago defense that is decimated with injuries so they should have their way here. The Vikings have put up more than 400 yards in seven games, including three of the last four and Kirk Cousins is again under scrutiny despite having one of his best seasons. The Bears have lost two straight games and seven of their last eight with that lone win coming against the Lions. With everything that has happened this week, Chicago has also been hit as of Sunday night, the Bears had 14 players on the COVID list, and all three coordinators also were in COVID safety protocols. The Bears are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, against division opponents. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (331) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our AFC South Game of the Month. Jacksonville is playing its first game without head coach Urban Meyer and that could fire this team up after that toxic environment but laying this many points is too aggressive. The Jaguars have lost five straight games and they have scored 17 points or less in seven straight games and while they might be rejuvenated here, they cannot be laying this amount. They have been favored just once all season and failed to cover that number and while Houston is not a good team, in a divisional game with two similar teams, it should not be over a field goal. The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Houston is not a good team plain and simple but this is a winnable game and players at this point of the season are playing for contracts so there is no giving up. Davis Miles is not a good quarterback but he is facing a defense that is ranked No. 26 in points allowed and the rushing offense can have success here. Houston is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (319) Houston Texans

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Punisher. The Patriots have won seven straight games and that has helped to create value in this number which has come down from the opener. New England has been a public team for years and this one is no different as we are seeing that money come in on them. What they did last week was a thing on genius but now they are in a dome and will have to rely on both sides against a team fighting for a playoff spot. The Patriots defense has been the strength and while they are No. 3 overall, they are just No. 18 against the run and that is a big issue here going up against Jonathan Taylor. The Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Colts are coming off a 31-0 win over Houston to move to 7-6 and is in good position for a Wild Card spot in the AFC. They are just 3-4 at home but do have some edges in this matchup that cannot be discounted. The Colts lead the NFL in takeaways, turnover differential and ypc on offense at 5.1 ypc, while Carson Wentz has been playing great with just five interceptions. Defensively, Indianapolis is No. 13 overall while being No. 16 against the run and No. 9 in points allowed. The Colts are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on a Saturday. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1983. 10* (312) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. The Chargers are coming off a win over the Giants to make it two straight victories and they have a chance to move into a first place tie with the Chiefs if they get a win tonight. The offense has been rolling as they have scored 37 or more points in three of their last four games and in home games, they are averaging 408.4 ypg which is near the top of the league and have a chance to expose a defense that has been playing above their heads of late. Los Angeles is just 4-3 at home but all three losses were by one possession and all against playoff contenders. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Kansas City has won six straight games to remain in the lead in the AFC West but this offense is still playing uneven despite the game against the Raiders and they face a tough road test here. The Chiefs have leaned on their defense over this stretch which is something we never would have said in September and October. They have allowed nine points or less in four of their last five games but were outgained twice and outgained the Giants by just 68 yards as well as outgaining Las Vegas by just 87 yards despite the lopsided score. After playing five of their last six games at home, this situation is not ideal. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. This situation is 70-35 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. The NFC playoff picture is jumbled but the Rams are in position for the top Wild Card spot and are still alive for the NFC West division title. They are two games back with a chance to cut that in half despite losses in three of their last four games. They are coming off a 30-point win over Jacksonville and while that might not say much, it brought back some much needed confidence heading into the final five games of the season which will not be an easy stretch. The Rams remain a top rated offense as they are ranked No. 6 overall and No. 5 in scoring offense and Matthew Stafford looks to be fully healthy after a couple rough games because of injury. The Rams are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games against the NFC. The Cardinals are also healthy again with Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins back in the mix and at a short price in a divisional game, the public is all over them. They have won two straight games, both on the road, and they are back home where they are 3-2 on the season compared to a 7-0 record on the highway. While their 10-2 record is the best in the NFC, they have not played a great schedule as it is ranked No. 24 in the league. the defense has done its job but even though the first matchup resulted in a 17-point win, the Cardinals were outgained by 64 yards and they have been outgained in three of their last six games with two of the positives coming against Houston and Jacksonville. The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (129) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFC East Game of the Month. The NFC East pretty much comes down to this game and if the Cowboys win, it is theirs. They have lost two of their last three games but are coming off a win in their last game on Thursday against New Orleans so they have had ample rest heading into Sunday. Because their last two games have been on a Thursday, they have had a good schedule break that has now gotten them to the healthiest they have been this season, especially on the defensive side. The Cowboys are an explosive team with the kind of playmakers on offense and defense that can get in gear and make a last month run into the playoffs. Dallas is 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season while going 6-0 ATS after allowing six or more yppl in their previous game this season. Washington has won four straight games to go from 2-6 to 6-6 but this run has been a little suspect with the last three coming by just one possession. Washington, currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC, can shrink the Cowboys NFC East lead to one game with a victory and if Washington wins out, it takes the division but we just do not see that happening. This team needs Taylor Heinicke to continue his impressive play if they hope to win but it will difficult against this defense that is nearly back to full strength. The defense stepped up but COVID has again dealt a blow with Montez Sweat placed on the protocol. This team is overmatched on both sides and the Washington run comes to an end. The Football Team are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the NFC East. 10* (117) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. The public reaction should see more money coming in on Pittsburgh after we closer to gametime following the Steelers upset win over Baltimore and the Vikings loss to Detroit. Pittsburgh improved to 6-5-1 and is now a game and a half behind the Ravens in the AFC North. The Steelers did it with stingy defense as they allowed 19 points after giving up 41 points in consecutive games prior to that. The difference this season has been the home/road splits as they are allowing 27 ppg on road compared to 21.6 ppg at home. The offense has scored 17 points or less in three of their last four road games and will face a defense that should be embarrassed by their performance last week. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota fell to 5-7 with the loss to the Lions and while it is well out of the division race, a Wild Card spot is still in play. The Vikings are a game back for the final spot and they have to take advantage of home games where they are 3-2 and finish the season with three home games over their last five and they still get to face Chicago twice. A lot of the heat is on Kirk Cousins which always seems to be the case but he is having a great season as he has completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 3,353 yards while tossing 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Again, it will up to the defense and stop the running game and make Ben Roethlisberger beat then and that will be hard for him to do. The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a straight up loss. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset win as a home underdog, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (102) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Buffalo is coming off a win at New Orleans on Thanksgiving so it has had an extended break in getting ready for its biggest game of the season. The Bills are 7-4 and trail the Patriots by a half-game in the AFC East with a chance to leapfrog New England in the division. This is just their second home game in a month with the other one being the beatdown they took from the Colts, getting defeated 41-15 as Jonathan Taylor went off. Buffalo still possesses the top ranked defense in the NFL and faces a pretty average offense tonight that does not carry a rushing threat like Indianapolis or Tennessee, the two times it was hit hard by the run. On the other side, the Bills are No. 4 in total offense and they are a top 10 team in both phases which the Patriots have not seen during their winning streak. The Bills are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New England has won six straight games to be where they are but the schedule has been on its side with only one win coming against a team that is over .500 and that came against the Titans which were without Derrick Henry. The defense is ranked No. 1 in scoring defense and they have allowed a solid 7.8 ppg in five wins during their winning streak against those five teams that are not offensively efficient and the other one was against the Chargers where they gave up 24 points. This game has a lot of similarities as the game against a balanced Dallas team where they lost in overtime while getting outgained by 235 yards. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (476) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our AFC North Game of the Month. We were on the Steelers last week and they got smoked against the Bengals and it is pretty much do or die time as they return home against their biggest rival in what is essentially a Week 13 playoff game. Pittsburgh is 5-5-1 which still has them in the mix in the AFC but there is little for error and at this number, the Steelers are getting no respect which maybe they should not be. They have been average on offense as they are ranked No. 22 in both total offense and scoring offense but they do have a good matchup here against a Ravens team that does not take the ball away and allowed 31.3 ppg prior to playing the Bears and Browns. The Steelers are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog. We played against Tennessee two weeks ago pointing to the fact they were the most overrated team in the AFC at the time and Baltimore has moved into tat category. Of their eight wins, five have come by three points or less or in overtime and another by just one possession which certainly explains their +23 point differential which is the fewest margin of any divisional leader in the NFL. The Ravens have been outgained in three of their last five games and we are going to see a lot of blind bets again despite another bad turnover game with a lot of this being how the Steelers have been over the last month. The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Here we play against favorites forcing 1 or less tpg, after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (470) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Washington has won three straight games to move to 5-6 on the season and actually controls its own destiny in the NFC East but that is not going to happen. They are coming off a win over Seattle on Monday night as the Seahawks once again struggled on offense and now they head to the west coast on a short week. This is a very average team that is ranked No. 19 in total offense, No. 20 in scoring offense, Mo. 18 in total defense and No. 25 in scoring defense. They are even worse on the defensive side than those rankings indicate as Washington is allowing 5.9 yppl which is No. 20 overall and it is second the last in DVOA and the Raiders possess an offense that can take advantage. Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Raiders have been off since Thanksgiving and that should give them a solid edge here heading back home. Las Vegas broke out of an offensive slump in the 36-33 victory in Dallas largely because it diversified its attack. This is obviously key for any team but especially the Raiders as they can do it with the passing and rushing games as long as they go with both. Starting quarterback Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing with 3,414 yards but the balance was key against the Cowboys as keeping them on their heels with a lot of play action looks. Running back Josh Jacobs had a season high 22 carries which he turned into 87 yards and his production will again be key. The Raiders are just one game behind Kansas City in the AFC West and in this clogged division, every game is meaningful at this point. The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (468) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. Dallas is coming off a loss on Thanksgiving as it fell in overtime against the Raiders in a penalty filled game that could have gone either way. The Cowboys have lost two straight and three of their last four games and have seen their lead in the NFC East shrink to two games over Washington. Obviously this is a big game for Dallas but it is big for both sides and the public perception is still on the Dallas side despite a 1-3 ATS stretch that followed up a 7-0 run against the number to open the season. The offense is still ranked No. 1 in the league but the defense remains a liability as it is now No. 26 in the NFL and might have another tough time here against a quarterback that has seen limited action but gives them a whole different look. The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Saints are also coming off a Thanksgiving loss as they were hammered by the Bills which prompted the quarterback change to Taysom Hill after a bad recent run. New Orleans is now 5-6 following four straight losses yet it is still alive in the Wild Card in the NFC with eight teams having five or six wins vying for a spot. As of this week, the Rams and 49ers are the favorites for the first two spots and the Saints in the lead for the third slot over Minnesota. The offense could get a boost with Alvin Kamara back in the lineup but it is the defense that needs to regroup after the Bils game and they should with a lot on the line. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites averaging 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 111-63 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Seattle has lost two straight and five of its last six games but three of those came against three of the top four teams in the NFC and most of those were without Russell Wilson who is back for his third game and should be healthier. The Seahawks have scored just one touchdown since his return but they do face a defense that has struggled this season especially against the pass where they are ranked No. 30, allowing an average of 270 ypg. The Seahawks cannot afford another loss, as dropping to 3-8 would most certainly knock them out of any playoff hope. This offense is too good to be held down and the absence of Chase Young is a big one as the offensive line is in a better spot. Seattle is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Washington finds itself on a two-game winning streak, including an upset of the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. They had lost four straight prior to that and while they can build off this recent run, we are not sure which team to buy at this point. This line has been bet down considerably and the majority of the action remains on Washington as everyone is down on the Seahawks at this point. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has been playing well but may be without two of his top receivers behind Terry McLaurin with Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries listed as questionable. Heinicke had a passer rating of 84.3 in the first eight games of the season before catching fire but we are not sure if this is sustainable. Washington is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 home games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 5.4 and 5.8 yppl and after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game going up against teams allowing 5.8 or more yppl. This situation is 22-6 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFC East Game of the Year. The Eagles have won their last two games and coupled with the Dallas loss on Thursday, they are now just two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. They hit the road where they are 4-2 on the season which is the best road record in the NFL besides the three top teams in the NFC West which have killed it on the highway. Philadelphia continues to run the ball effectively as it has outgained its last five opponents on the ground while putting up an average of 201 ypg over that stretch. Despite the recent road success, the Eagles have struggled in the first of consecutive road games and going back Philadelphia is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games in the second half of the season against teams who give up 24 or more ppg. New York is coming off a forgettable game in Tampa Bay which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and a new look, even though it is Freddie Kitchens, could provide a needed spark. The Eagles defense has been below average as they are allowing 23.6 ppg so New York can be effective with the offense remaining healthy. On the other side, The Giants rushing defense has been adequate and they are coming off a good game where they allowed only 94 yards against Tampa on just 3.5 ypc and it was a game where the Buccaneers ran the ball than normal. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, a playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) New York Giants

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. Buffalo got manhandled at home against the Colts for its second loss in three games as Jonathan Taylor went off by rushing for 185 yards and scoring five touchdowns. The Bills are now in second place in the AFC East, a half-game behind the Patriots with a home game against New England on deck so there is definitely a sense of urgency to bounce back from that loss. The 26-point defeat was bit deceiving as mistakes killed Buffalo as it lost the turnover margin 4-0 and that is not recoverable. Buffalo still is near the top of the league on both sides of the ball as it averages 391.7 ypg on offense and allows 283.7 ypg on defense., No. 5 and No. 1 in the NFL respectively. Buffalo is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game while going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. New Orleans has now suffered three straight losses to fall to 5-5 and it recent surge up the playoff ladder has taken a big step back. The normally strong rushing defense was gashed for 242 against the Eagles and they have a better matchup here but the Saints will have trouble slowing down the Buffalo passing game especially with Josh Allen coming off a rough game in some poor weather. The injury list is a long one for New Orleans and Trevor Siemian has struggled for the most part and shows he has trouble leading this offense with a passer rating of 88.9 while completing only 56.9 percent of his passes. A return home would seem to be an edge but the Saints are just 1-2 in the dome this season. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 45-13 ATS (77.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (109) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. After a pair of bad losses, the public will be backing the Buccaneers on Monday night despite laying a huge number. Tampa Bay is coming off losses against Washington and New Orleans sandwiched around its bye week to drop its record to 6-3 on the season and with the Saints loss Sunday, the Buccaneers have a game and a half lead in the NFC South. They have struggled with inconsistency on offense and that is because of players being in and out of the lineup due to injuries. Tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Godwin are both questionable and not at 100 percent should they play. On the other side, the Tampa Bay defense allowed 16 first-half points in each of the last two weeks and defensive lineman Vita Vea is doubtful. The Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. The Giants are coming off their bye week following wins in two of their last three games to improve to 3-6 following a 0-3 start. Three of those six losses have been by three points or less and while the defense was shredded by the Cowboys and Rams in back-to-back games, they have allowed just 13 ppg over this recent three-game stretch and New York has allowed 21 points or fewer in five of its last seven games. The Giants have allowed only allowed three touchdowns in 13 red zone drives. While keeping up in a shootout would be unlikely, the New York offense is getting healthier. Running back Saquon Barkley was officially listed as questionable for the game after practicing all week. Additionally, wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney were not listed on the injury report. The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off a home win. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (477) New York Giants

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our AFC South Game of the Year. This is an ugly play for sure but Houston actually is in a great spot here. The Texans have lost eight straight games and have the worse offense and third worst defense in the NFL but they are coming off their bye week which came at good time to help heal some injuries. Houston lost its last game in Miami but won the yardage battle as it was hurt by four turnovers including three interceptions by Tyrod Taylor who was pressured a ton and faced a great group of corners. That will not be the case this week as Tennessee is No. 27 against the pass and was torched for 298 yards by Trevor Siemian which was the fourth most in his very below average career. This is a game that the Texans will be fired up for and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Is it possible for a team to have won six straight games and be overrated? In this case yes. The Titans have improved their record to an AFC best 8-2 but during their six-game winning streak, they have been outgained four times and in the two times they won the yardage battle, they were by 33 and 35 yards. On the season, Tennessee is getting outgained by 19 ypg overall and while that may seem miniscule, for a team that is 8-2 and missing the best running back in the league, it is a big deal. While the Houston injury report is in decent shape, the Titans have a whopping 27 players that are either questionable, out indefinitely or on IR. With the Patriots on deck in New England, if ever there is a game to go through the motions, this is it. The Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after eight or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (465) Houston Texans

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. New England seems to be hitting its stride as it has won four straight games and has covered all of those, three by double-digits with two of those beating the number by over 33 points. The Patriots have won all four road games this season but three of those came against the Jets, Texans and Panthers which are a combined 8-20 and the record is part of the reason this line has gone up by 2.5 points in some places. They are still just a half-game behind Buffalo in the AFC East with games against the Titans, Colts and Bills twice upcoming in the next four games. Overall, they have played the second easiest schedule in the NFL and the backend will present a challenge and Thursday is no easy out. The Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while going 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games against passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or worse in the second half of the season. This is just the second home game for the Falcons since October 3rd as they have played three road games as well as a game in London. Atlanta has won three of its last five games and one of those victories definitely was not last Sunday as it got embarrassed at Dallas 43-3, getting outgained by 217 total yards. While Atlanta played like garbage, that was more of a statement game for the Cowboys that was coming off a bad game against the Broncos. The Falcons are 4-5 on the season and there are now six teams with record between 5-4 and 4-6 so the Wild Card race is still wide open. Atlanta is -5 in turnover margin which is the big reason it is getting outscored by over nine ppg. The Falcons are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game while going 6-0 ATS in their last six games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (312) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. The Rams are coming off a bad loss against Tennessee but it really was not as bad as the score shows. Los Angeles outgained the Titans by 153 total yards as the defense allowed only 194 yards and 14 of the 28 points allowed were off of back-to-back interceptions. San Francisco fell to 3-5 and the schedule has been the reason this record is even this good. The three wins came against teams a combined 7-20-1 with the wins coming by an average of 8.3 ppg while the losses have come against four winning teams and those defeats are by an average of 8.4 ppg. The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home while the 49ers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. One key stat in this matchup that shows these teams are closer than the records indicate is that the Rams are averaging 6.4 yppl on offense while the 49ers are averaging 6.3 yppl. Defensively, both teams are allowing 5.5 yppl and when it comes to total yards, Los Angeles is +50 ypg in differential while San Francisco is +27 ypg and that difference is pretty insignificant. That being said, the 49ers are stepping on their own feet and the point differential shows that. San Francisco is No. 24 in points allowed and No. 17 in points scored and that due to mistakes as the 49ers have the worst turnover margin in the NFL. For the Rams, the loss of Robert Woods is big but he has a capable replacement in Van Jefferson who has averaged 5.2 targets per game and he has three games of 80-plus receiving yards. Odell Beckham Jr. could provide a spark as well. On the other side, Von Miller is expected to make his Rams debut. The Rams are 15-6 ATS after a loss under Sean McVay. Here ,we play against home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after having lost four out of their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (265) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. We played against New Orleans and played on Tennessee last week and now we are going opposite this week as they match up against each other. Tennessee has won five straight games and to no surprise, the public is all over the Titans (looking at consensus sites and offshore numbers). The last four wins have come against teams all in playoff contention and all of those wins were outright as underdogs. Now they come in as a small home favorite which is part of the reason for the public sentiment and despite this, the line has not moved. Tennessee has the No. 4 ranked rushing offense but Derrick Henry is out and it managed only 69 yards on the ground against the Rams last week and now faces the top ranked rushing defense in the league. the Titans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Saints lost to the Falcons at home last week which snapped a three-game winning streak. At 5-3, New Orleans is a game behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South and the Saints bring in a 3-1 road record that includes three straight victories. The offense has been inconsistent but face a below average Titans defense that allowed 347 yards but benefitted from a pair of costly Rams turnovers. New Orleans has allowed only 19.4 ppg and while it has been outpassed in six of eight games, the Saints face the No. 26 ranked passing offense in the league. The Saints are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games against teams with a winning home record and this is credit to head coach Sean Payton. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (249) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. Baltimore is coming off another come-from-behind win to improve to 6-2 on the season and remains in first place in the AFC North. The schedule has been one of the most favorable ones we have seen in a long time as the Ravens have played four straight home games with a bye week sandwiched in-between there and this will be their first road game since October 3rd. During this four-game stretch, Baltimore needed overtime twice to win and were crushed by Cincinnati in another. The Ravens are 2-1 on the road as they lost in overtime against Las Vegas and needed a record breaking field goal to beat lowly Detroit as they had to come back in the last minute. The Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Dolphins were able sneak out a win against Houston which is not saying much but this is a good spot as they get to remain home on a short week facing a team travelling from home and got the first time in five weeks. Miami snapped a seven-game losing streak and it has been competitive of late as it lost two games by five points combined and was in it against Buffalo until the Bills scored nine points late in the fourth quarter. The Ravens do have a big edge on offense against the Miami defense but the Dolphins can move the ball here as the Ravens defense is nothing special, ranked in the bottom third of the league in total defense and scoring defense. The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a defense forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (114) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. The Bears have lost three straight games following a two-game winning streak and they are now 3-5 overall but all hope is not lost. Entering Week Nine, the Bears are only one game back in the win column from the No. Seven seed in the NFC with a lot of football remaining. There is no denying the offense has been up and down and the passing game needs to improve. The magic number is 20 points for Chicago as it is 3-1 on the season when scoring 20 or more points while going 0-4 when scoring fewer than that. Justin Fields had a solid game against San Francisco and he will have to continue his running success if the Bears want to keep the Steelers off balance. Chicago is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Pittsburgh has won three straight games to move to within a game of Baltimore for first place in the AFC South. The Steelers have gotten it done on the defensive end as they have allowed 16.3 ppg over the winning streak after giving up 23.3 ppg through their first four games. The offense continues to be a struggle similar to Chicago as the Steelers have scored more than 20 points in regulation only once in their last six games. Pittsburgh has been favored by more than 2.5 points only twice this season and it has gone 1-1 while failing to cover in that victory as it was a three-point win over Seattle in overtime as a 5.5-point chalk. Fading overpriced favorites that has a limited offense is the way to go. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Here, we play on road teams averaging 285 or fewer total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (475) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC South Game of the Year. The Saints are coming off a win over Tampa Bay last Sunday in a big upset that put New Orleans just a half-game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. They did it with Trevor Siemian who was not great but the Saints benefitted from three Tampa Bay turnovers, scoring 17 points off those, and 11 penalties. This offense is not good to begin with a New Orleans is No. 29 in total offense including No. 31 in passing and Michael Thomas is officially done for the season. The defense is playing very well but getting up for a second straight week after that big win will be a challenge. Despite the winning record, the Saints are getting outgained by close to 40 yards per game. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. Atlanta is coming off a loss against Carolina to fall to 3-5 and the Panthers did catch a break when Matt Ryan got his left hand stomped on and he clearly was not the same. He will be fine this week and the Falcons are getting a bigger number than they should be. After a pair of blowout wins to open the season, Atlanta has been playing much better by going 3-2 over its last five games with the two losses coming by just a possession each. There are six teams in the NFC that are between 3-5 and 4-4 so Atlanta is still very much alive in the Wild Card race and these are those marginal games that need to be one, unlike last week against the Panthers. The Falcons are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (465) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. The Colts are coming off a tough loss against Tennessee on Sunday in overtime as they blew a 14-0 lead and had some costly turnovers down the stretch. They now trail the Titans by three games in the AFC South and they have some work to do to get back into the playoff picture. This is a big two-game home stretch against the Jets and Jaguars and they have to win both and they also need to dominate to get some confidence back before facing the Bills and Buccaneers. The Colts are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. After getting outgained in six of their previous seven games, New York outgained the Bengals by 193 total yards in a 34-31 win. While it was a solid Jets win, it can considered a bad Cincinnati loss as they still seemed to be relishing in their win over Baltimore the previous week. New York is 0-3 in true road games and has failed to cover any of those and has been outgained by close to 200 ypg while getting outscored by 24 ppg. Quarterback Matt White had a game for the ages as he threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns but he comes back down to earth here. In the four major statistical categories, total yards, rushing yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jets are ranked No. 27 or worse in six of eight of those eight categories on offense and defense. Conversely, Indianapolis is ranked No. 15 or better in those categories. The Jets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games against teams allowing 235 or more passing ypg. Here, we play on favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg and after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against teams allowing 27 or more ppg. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (312) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Kansas City has lost two of its last three and four of its last six games to fall to 3-4 overall which has the Chiefs in last place in the AFC West. They have struggled within the conference but at 2-0 against the NFL, both coming against NFC East team Washington and Philadelphia and by a combined score of 73-43 and this is a statement game to close the first half on a positive before hitting a tough stretch of three straight games against division leaders. The offense has not lost a step but turnovers have been an issue. They led the NFL in total offense in 2020, averaging 414.7 ypg and this year, they are averaging 419.3 ypg, third in the NFL behind Dallas and Tampa Bay. The defense has been dreadful but in the four losses, Kansas City has faced offenses ranked No. 4, No. 5, No. 11 and No. 12 and the Giants are well below those rankings. New York continues to be ravaged with injuries at the wide receiver position so it will be hard pressed to take advantage of the Chiefs defense. They did put up 25 points against Carolina last week but managed only 302 total yards and while the defense played well, it came against the Panthers which have the eighth worst offense in the NFL. The Giants had a top-10 defense last season under coordinator Patrick Graham but this year, they were a bottom 10 unit and are allowing 25.7 ppg. The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while going 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. 10* (278) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our AFC South Game of the Month. Tennessee is coming off its second straight big win as it followed up its win against Buffalo with a victory over Kansas City last week. Both were far from dominant as the Titans outgained Kansas City by just 35 yards and were outgained by Buffalo by 55 yards. Both of those were at home and Tennessee has struggled on the road. They are 2-1 on the highway, with two games going into overtime and the third being a win over Jacksonville where they were actually outgained by 86 yards. The Colts defense has been playing at a high level with the exception of late in the game against Baltimore. Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Colts have won two straight games to move to 3-4 to get back into the playoff picture. While the defense has been playing better, quarterback Carson Wentz is again playing at a high level. He has posted four straight games with a passer rating of 106.3 or better with last week being the most impressive against a tough 49ers defense in awful weather and he has tossed eight touchdowns and no interceptions over this stretch. The Colts are 1-2 at home but the two losses came early in the season when they were banged up and both were one possession games. Four of the previous five games were on the road and with the Jets and Jaguars on deck at home, getting to 6-4 is more than likely. Indianapolis 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a by 14 or more points as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (258) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Publisher. Green Bay has won six straight games to keep pace in the NFC and this could be a preview of the NFC Championship. The Packers have covered all six of these games, winning their lone game as underdogs and this number has gone up which is adding value even though the offense looks like it could be down a key player. The Green Bay offense took a hit early in the week as Davante Adams tested positive for COVID and is likely out but could be in the lineup as long as he registers two negative tests 48 hours apart. The return of Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be huge in case Adams is definitely out. Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season except the season opener against the Saints and on the season, he has 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Arizona is the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL as it is off to a surprising 7-0 start with both sides of the ball playing great. The Cardinals are No. 4 in the league in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense and tied for first in scoring defense and No. 4 in total defense. Quarterback Kyler Murray has 17 touchdown passes this season to go with five interceptions and is a mid-season MVP candidate. The Cardinals are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. New Orleans is off to a 3-2 start following a win over Washington and the Saints are coming off a bye which means they could get some key pieces back. But they are still banged up in some key areas and this line has risen since opening which is more fading Seattle because of no Russell Wilson. New Orleans did beat Green Bay in its season opener 38-3 but the Packers simply did not show up and since then, the Saints have been outgained in each of their last four games and by an average of 96.8 ypg and that is not a favorable differential heading out against a desperate team in need of a win. The Saints have failed to cover four of their last five Monday night games and are an overpriced favorite here. Seattle is coming off a big second half against the Steelers to send the game into overtime before losing by three points. The Seahawks were getting 5.5 points in Pittsburgh and are now getting roughly just a point less at home and that line differential makes no sense as the value is clearly on the home underdog. This will be the second game for Geno Smith to have a full week of preparation and he was pretty good with the exception of a lost fumble as he went 23-32 for 209 yards and a touchdown with no picks. The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up loss. 10* (474) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC North Game of the Month. The Bengals are 4-2 on the season with both losses coming by just three points each. The Ravens were able to fluster Justin Herbert last week but while he struggles versus the blitz, Joe Burrow flourishes against it as he is second in the league in passer rating (136.8) against the blitz. Cincinnati has built its offense around Burrow, which produced significant ripple effects. He has four touchdown passes of 30+ air yards this season, most in the NFL. The Bengals can also beat teams on the ground, as running back Joe Mixon ranks fourth in the league with 480 rushing yards. Baltimore has won five straight games but three of those have been decided by a total of nine points and this will not be a dominant win like it has been recently in this series. Statistically, these two match up pretty well as the Ravens are seventh in the league at 28.3 ppg while the Bengals 11th at 24.7 ppg. On the other side, Cincinnati is fifth in the NFL with 18.5 ppg allowed and Baltimore seventh with 20.5 ppg allowed. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (451) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. Denver has come back down to earth following a 3-0 start as the Broncos have lost their last three games, all as favorites. They have actually been favored in all six games this season so this marks their first game as underdogs. It has to be noted that those three wins to open the season came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets which are a combined 3-14 and none of which have more than one victory. To their credit, the defense has been playing at a high level overall but that success is during those first three games where they allowed an average of 8.7 ppg but Denver has allowed an average of 28.0 ppg over its last three games. The Browns opened 3-1 both straight up and against the number, but they have dropped two straight against playoff bound teams. Injuries are mounting for Cleveland as the list keeps getting longer but come Thursday, they should be in better shape. Running back Nick Chubb has been ruled out so the running game is thin but Baker Mayfield said after the loss Sunday that he expects to play through his injury and be ready for Thursday. Instead. Case Keenum will get the start which is actually the better move. The defense has been a huge disappointment over the last two games but those offenses are both ranked in the top 11. Here, we play against teams in a game involving two teams forcing 1.25 or fewer tpg, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (310) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Buffalo will be out for road revenge following a 42-16 loss last season and while the Bills are better this season, this is a tough spot following a 4-1 start including a big road win last week at Kansas City. They have covered all four games and they have not been close as the cover margins have been +31.5, +14.5, +21.0 and +20.5. in the loss last season, Bills quarterback Josh Allen finished 26-41 for 263 passing yards, throwing for two touchdowns and two interceptions. Buffalo has done a good job of limiting Derrick Henry over the last three matchups but he could be due for a breakout. Henry leads the league with 640 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns and 34 rushing first downs. Last year, the defense limited Henry to only 57 rushing yards but allowed touchdowns on all six red zone possessions. In addition to having the 10th best total offense averaging 389.2 ypg and 10th best scoring offense averaging 26.4 ppg, Tennessee is averaging 25.4 first downs per game which bis good for third in the NFL. Here, we play against favorites with an offense averaging 385 or more ypg, after gaining 450 or more ypg over their last three games. This situation is 29-7 (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. New England snapped a two-game losing streak with a less than impressive effort against Houston as it held on for a three point win as an eight-point road favorite. Now, the Patriots return home as a home underdog and justifiably so but we feel the spot is good as early money has been pouring in on Dallas and has already moved this line two points. The Patriots are 0-3 at home and the road team is 5-0 in their five games and the streak looks to be broken this week. The Cowboys have won four straight games following an opening loss against Tampa Bay and they are a perfect 5-0 against the number and that is a contrarian spot we love to go against. The offense has been rolling, averaging 40.3 ppg over their last three games, all coming at home. They will be facing a sneaky good defense as the Patriots are ranked No. 5 in total defense and No. 5 in scoring defense. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog while the Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Thursday Primetime Punisher. Philadelphia sits at 2-3 following a 21-18 win at Carolina on Sunday. The Eagles have actually played better than the record shows as they have outgained three opponents and the two games in which they were outgained, they were just by 10 and 13 yards against Kansas City and Dallas respectively. The Philadelphia passing defense has been very average but came up big against the Panthers as they held Sam Darnold to just 177 passing yards, with three interceptions and three sacks. Darnold is no Tom Brady but after coming off his best game of the season, expect some regression here. Tampa Bay has been rolling with a 4-1 record but two of those wins came by just two points apiece. Since the start of last season, the Buccaneers are 4-6 ATS with just a +4.3 cover average. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. While the Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Here, we play against favorites averaging 385 or more total ypg, after averaging 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Monday Game of the Year. We will be laying the price Monday night as this is a horrible spot for the Colts. They are coming off their first win of the season as they pretty much dominated the Dolphins last week and while that could provide momentum, the spot is just too poor. After opening the season with two straight home games, this is the third straight road game for Indianapolis and even though it has an extra day to prepare, it is not ideal. Baltimore has won three straight games following a season opening loss at Las Vegas in overtime. The defense has led the way of late and they should be able to dominate again here. The Ravens have allowed fewer points in every game this season and after two straight road games, heading home is a great opportunity to stay atop the AFC North. The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off two straight road games including a win in the last one, going up against teams coming off two straight wins. This situation is 22-7 ATS (75.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (480) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFC West Game of the Month. The Cardinals are the only undefeated team in the NFL at 4-0 following a big win at Los Angeles last weekend but they are in a tough spot to keep that unblemished record alive. They lead the NFL in total offense but will face a big test here against the 49ers. The Cardinals are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. San Francisco has lost two straight games to Green Bay and Seattle, both by just one possession each. The 49ers are now 2-2 in arguably the toughest division in the NFL so this is a huge game to keep pace. San Francisco may have to depend on rookie quarterback Trey Lance to go into Arizona and pull out a win and his scrambling ability could be a big asset. San Francisco is 11-3-1 ATS following back-to-back losses as a favorite. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games against opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our Thursday Night Game of the Month. The Rams are coming off their first loss of the season as they were hammered in Arizona 37-20 last Sunday as after jumping out to a 1-07 lead, they fell behind by 11 points at halftime. In four games, they are -22 yards in differential so they have been far from dominating as opposed to what their 3-1 record indicates. Los Angeles is a surprising favorite here as it heads to one of the toughest places to play in all of the league. The difference could be he Seattle offense. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have certainly helped production of Russell Wilson, and that should continue in this contest. This Rams secondary was just absolutely torched by the Cardinals last time out as Kyler Murray threw for 268 yards and two scores. The Rams are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Seahawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a terrible defense allowing 360 or more total ypg, after gaining 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (302) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC Game of the Month. Cincinnati is coming off a 24-10 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday and the question is are the Bengals vastly improved or are the Steelers on a decline and we think it’s a mix of the two. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Jacksonville has one of the worst rosters in the NFL and it has shown already as the Jaguars are 0-3 straight up and ATS. Trevor Lawrence has struggled as he has completed just 54.2 percent of his passes while throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against a team allowing 27 ppg or more. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Game of the Month. Dallas, who lost in the season opener against Tampa Bay in Week One, bounced back last Sunday with a 20-17 road win over the Chargers and now head back to Dallas for its home opener. The money is coming in heavily on the Cowboys yet the line has not moved which shows the smart money is on the Eagles. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. Philadelphia is coming off a loss against San Francisco but actually outgained the 49ers. This came after a win over Atlanta where they outgained the Falcons by 174 yards. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Here, we play against home divisional favorites that were outscored by opponents by four or more ppg last season. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (497) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS four our NFL Sunday Primetime Punisher. Green Bay is coming off a win over Detroit on Monday as they outscored the Lions 21-0 after trailing at halftime. The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The 49ers are playing their home opener after coming off two road wins. The 49ers are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Here, we play against home favorites that had a losing record last season, in conference games. This situation is 161-94 ATS (63.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (495) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our Thursday Primetime Punisher. Houston is a mess at this point on offense and on a short week, it will not get better. Deshawn Watson is inactive again. Davis Mills, the third-round draft pick, completed just 8 of 18 passes for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to the Browns. We are not sure that he can carry this team at this point. The addition of Sam Darnold so far looks like a great pick up for Carolina, which is now 2-0 to start the season. Coaching is huge and the Panthers have that here. Here, we play against home teams with a scoring defense last season that allowed 24 or more ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Game of the Month. This is the perfect bounce back spot for Green Bay to get back on track but it is laying way too much on Monday night. We should expect a much better performance from the offence that scored just three points against the Saints but defensively, the Packers will continue to experience some growing pains. Detroit put up a solid effort against the 49ers and while the defense stunk, the offense had a great showing with 33 points. Jared Goff went off for 338 yards with three touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after a game where they committed one or less turnovers going ip against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 55-23 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (297) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Month. Arizona is coming off a 38-13 blowout win over Tennessee in Week One and heads back to Arizona for its home opener. On offense, quarterback Kyler Murray threw four touchdown passes while also running for another. Minnesota is coming off a poor loss at Cincinnati as it fell 27-24 in overtime. This team is talented enough to overcome that and this is a good number.  Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems poor passing defense from last season that allowed 230 or more passing ypg, after allowing eight or more passing ypa in their last game. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (287) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Game of the Week. We think Buffalo will have a chip on its shoulder this season and why not take it out on one of the perennial AFC top teams. Buffalo returns 20 of 22 starters which is one of the best percentages in the NFL while the Steelers have plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball and are already dinged up with injuries. The Bills offense had the no. 2 passing offense in the NFL last season, and quarterback Josh Allen had a record season that helped Buffalo score more than 500 points in a season for the first time franchise history. Allen completed 9 of his first 10 passes against the Packers in the only preseason action and should be ready to go full force from the start. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week One while the Bills are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in Week One. 10* (454) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Opening Winner. The reigning Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay will host Dallas in the NFL opener on Thursday night. The Cowboys welcome back Dak Prescott but not taking a snap in the preseason has us wondering how effective he will be coming off his ankle injury. The Buccaneers return all 22 starters from last season, the first time a Super Bowl team has done so since the 1970s. The Buccaneers were No. 1 in defense against the run last season, as well as No. 1 defense in Adjusted Line Yards allowed on runs up the middle which will put a lot of pressure on the depleted Dallas offensive line. The Dallas defense is likely to be extremely overmatched against Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown. 10* (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers