Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a rematch of the Week 15 meeting that saw the Jets go into Pittsburgh and defeat the Steelers 22-17 as 3.5-point underdogs. The game went over the total as the posted number was only 36 and now we are getting an extra three points this time around. A lot of that is due to the results from last week as well as the Jets run of high scoring games. This one comes down to the defenses however as on the season, the two teams have allowed a combined 34 ppg and over the last three games, 26.7 ppg. The Jets went into New England last Sunday and their upset win went over the total thanks to a late Patriots touchdown. That made it three out of the last four games that have gone over for New York and on the season, it is 13-5 to the over including 9-1 on the road so that is driving this total as well. Jets games have averaged 48 ppg on the road this season but five came against non-playoff teams with bad defenses. I cannot see the Jets doing much on offense this week. I won with the Ravens/Steelers over last week rather easily as that went against the conventional thinking of two strong defenses playing a low-scoring game. We get added value this week because of that result. Baltimore scored 24 points but one of the touchdowns came on a defensive score and for the game, the Ravens had just 126 total yards. That is a huge effort by the Steelers defense and one that is overshadowed by the points given up. In the first meeting, the Steelers held the Jets to only 276 total yards as New York could not get a running game going and despite being error-free, quarterback Mark Sanchez had only 170 yards passing. Pittsburgh was without safety Troy Polamalu for that game as well and we all know how he can completely change a game on the defensive side of things. Not to be overlooked, the Steelers linebackers can stop the run, rush the quarterback, blitz from anywhere and drop back into coverage. The Jets defense regressed as they went from first in the NFL to third in the NFL so it was not a huge drop. They could be peaking at the right time as they have held Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in check the last two weeks which is impressive to say the least. Can they do it for a third straight week? Ben Roethlisberger is not on the same level but he is close however the offense has struggled at times and the Steelers will be looking to establish the running game after seeing the results from the Jets the past two weeks. Both teams are mistake free units and they both fall into a great situation calling for a low scoring game. Play the under with a total between 35.5 and 42 points in a game involving two teams that commit 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 26-6 (81.2 percent) the last five seasons with the average score totaling just 35.3 ppg. The over is a very trendy bet this week based on recent results and history but we will be going unconventional again this week and call for a very low scoring contest. 10* Under (305) New York Jets/(306) Pittsburgh Steelers

Green Bay is the very popular play here which comes as no surprise as it has been playing very well over the last month and the public loves to ride these teams. I give a lot of credit to the Packers and we won with them last week in Atlanta in a rout but going for the third straight road win will be difficult. This recent surge has completely inflated this line and Green bay is over a field goal road favorite which is too aggressive of a move against the home divisional champions. The Beat are coming off an 11-point win last week against Seattle but the game was not as close as that score indicates as Chicago had a 28-0 lead before Seattle made a comeback in garbage time. The Beats outgained the Seahawks by 161 total yards and the benefit of playing at home is again a benefit as it negates the Packers advantage of having an extra day of rest. Chicago won the first meeting while Green Bay won the second by a 10-3 score and the defenses will make this one tight which benefits the home underdog. The Packers will be going for their third straight road playoff win as mentioned and they are not in a good spot as it has not been a good one throughout the years. Since 2000, six teams have won their first two playoff games on the road but only two of those went on to win the third playoff game on the road. Those four losses were by an average of 12.25 ppg and all came by at least a touchdown. They were on the wrong side of this scenario three years ago against the Giants. All of the talk is about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense and while Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, this is not going to be a cakewalk. Over the last two seasons covering 34 starts, he has 21 games of a passer rating of 100 or better but none of those have come against the Bears. He has two touchdowns and two interceptions against Chicago this season whose defense seems to not get the credit it deserves. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks a 74.4 passer rating, third best in the NFL. There are other important factors that are going against the Packers here. The biggest comes from last weeks result against the Falcons. Since the 2000 NFL playoffs, when a team scores 40 or more points in a game, the following game they are 4-7 SU & 1-10 ATS. This includes a 0-5 ATS mark when that team is favored. This is based on the simple bounce theory where a team is not as good as it looked the previous week and vice versa. Also, teams winning by 21 or more points are 4-9 ATS in their next playoff game. Also, play against road teams that are coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. The Bears fall into a great revenge spot also. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 in the second half of the season that are revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) Chicago Bears

We won a ticket last week on Seattle as it was able to take out the Saints outright at home. Things will be a little tougher this weekend on the road even though the Seahawks have already won once this season in Chicago. Initially at first glance, you would think Seattle has the value based on that victory as well as the fact that it was getting six points in that earlier meeting and now it is getting double-digits. However we still have to realize the Seahawks have a losing record and the run ends this week. Seattle played a great game last week but this has been a team that has struggled for the part of this season. The Seahawks are only 2-6 on the road this season, getting outscored by 12.4 ppg. Granted one of those wins came against the Bears but that only helps us here as Chicago certainly will not be taking this team lightly, especially after the wins last Saturday, and it has a good opportunity to gameplan better. Of the six road losses, all were by at least 15 points, so when it loses, it loses badly. The Bears are rested and healthy and will no doubt be out for revenge here. Chicago closed the season by going 7-2 over its last nine games with the only bad loss coming against the Patriots in a blizzard. The Bears have not been an overly dominating team this season as they have actually been outgained on average but they have a big edge in the defense in this matchup. Seattle allowed 474 yards to the Saints last week which is no surprise since it finished the regular season 27th in total defense with the Bears finishing ninth. It was a very impressive home win for Seattle in defeating the reigning Super Bowl Champions but that actually plays against the Seahawks here. We have seen this numerous times over the years and it has been a disaster next time out the majority of the time. Since 1985, 12 teams have defeated the previous Super Bowl Champion in the playoffs and it their next game, they have lost 10 of those. The only two wins happened to come in the Super Bowl, the Giants in 1990-91 and the 49ers in 1994-95. Take those out and teams are 0-10 in the next game following the win over the previous champs and this includes a 1-9 ATS record. The only cover came with the Chargers in 2007 where they lost by nine points as 14-point underdogs. The average victory in those 10 games is 13.3 ppg with six of those games being decided by 17 points or more. Basically teams that pull off those upsets have a tough time bouncing back and trying to repeat it for a second straight week. Making matters worse for the Seahawks is the fact that has not responded well from similar wins. They are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following a win against the spread and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 7.5 and 14 points. The revenge factor does come into play for the Bears as they are 8-0 in their last eight games under head coach Lovie Smith revenging a home loss. Seattle won us money last week but the Bears roll this Sunday. 10* (114) Chicago Bears

After looking more and more into this game, I feel there is some excellent value in the over. This number actually comes in lower than the previous meeting this season and even though it is just a difference of a point, the fact that only 23 total points were scored in that game, with the other game finishing with 31 points, makes this total very suspect. Both meetings this season stayed below the number and that is strengthening a contrarian play on this one to go over the number. As I mentioned in the side stance of this game, the defenses of both teams are the story in this game meaning whichever team can execute best on offense has the best chance of winning. Executing on offense does not mean running the ball as both run defenses are solid as the Steelers are first in the NFL in rushing defense while the Ravens are fifth in the league in rushing defense so it is safe to say that neither team is going to have success with it on offense. This is where new wrinkles in the passing game take over. As Baltimore did successfully in Kansas City, look for Flacco to attack the Steelers with a short, controlled passing game. He also has the weapons to take advantage of some big pops down the field as well and his maturity over the years provides him with the confidence to be able to throw against the Steelers defense. Slowly, over his three years in the NFL, Baltimore has handed more and more responsibility to Flacco and it has resulted in his best season so far. The Steelers offense has had its share of injuries this season and it does not have the playmakers that the Ravens possess at receiver but they manage to put points up nonetheless. I

Going against Kansas City goes against the home underdog theory but there is good reason for that here. Seattle was the worst team in the NFL to win a division title while the Chiefs were second and it isn

The 49ers playoff chances evaporated last week and with that head coach Mike Singletary was fired by Monday. With the season officially done, San Francisco is going to have a hard time getting up for this one as well as putting together any sort of execution due to the coaching change. But yet the 49ers are favored by close to a touchdown against a team with an identical record and one that is more ready to end the season on a high note rather than pack it in. Arizona is coming off a win over Dallas on Christmas and it should be taking that momentum into this big revenge game. The Cardinals have looked solid for the most part with John Skelton at quarterback. They are 2-1 and while the loss at Carolina looks bad, it actually wasn

Baltimore is playing for revenge against the Bengals and it is also playing for the AFC North title should Pittsburgh stumble in Cleveland. The Ravens are coming off a win last week against the Browns which clicked them a playoff spot and they must now play their second straight divisional game while riding a three-game winning streak. Despite the recent run, Baltimore has been outgained in three of its last four games and on the season it is only +17.3 ypg in yardage margin. We cashed an easy ticket with the Bengals last week and we will ride them again as they are playing at their best right now. Cincinnati is better than its 4-11 record indicates as it has lost seven games by a possession or less. The focus and motivation seemed to be lacking at Pittsburgh three weeks ago but the Bengals bounced back with a win against Cleveland and carried that into the upset last week against the Chargers. I think they can keep it rolling with what I feel is a line that is simply too high in this spot. Baltimore is 6-1 at home while the Bengals are 1-6 on the road and that is playing into this number. Yet Cincinnati is getting outscored by exactly a touchdown in those games while the Ravens are outscoring opponents by the same amount so we are seeing additional line value here due to the

This is a big game for both sides as Atlanta and New Orleans have different goals in action here. The Falcons can clinch the top seed in the NFC and home field throughout the playoffs which comes with that. Atlanta is no an absolute roll with wins in eight straight games including the last three coming on the road but I think it is not an impressive as it is being made into. Only two of those wins came against likely playoff teams and both of those came in the final seconds of the game. The Saints are coming off a loss in Baltimore last week which makes the Saints the more desperate team here and because of the success of last season, it should make them much better in this situation. They had won six straight games prior to the loss last week and like the Falcons, the wins were not against the best on competition with the exception of the Steelers. The overall numbers are better on the Saints side as they are outgaining opponents by 65.6 ypg while the Falcons are only +16.5 ypg in overall margin. Play on underdogs or pickems after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last five seasons. The Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a road loss while the Falcons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after three or more consecutive wins against the number. Also, New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 10* (131) New Orleans Saints

The Chargers are right back in the hunt in the AFC West following two straight blowout wins over Kansas City and San Francisco. Teams that score 30 or more points in back-to-back games are often good to play against next time out but it gets even better as the Chargers allowed a total of seven points in those games as well. San Diego is coming off three straight home games and even though it is still playing for its playoff lives, this is not an ideal situation to be in at all. The Bengals snapped their 10-game losing streak last week with a win over the Browns. The competition gets tougher this week but now the Bengals go from home favorites to home underdogs and big home underdogs for that matter. Cincinnati is without Terrell Owens this week but that did not hurt last week as the Bengals finally got back to running the ball. They may not have as much success since San Diego is a much better defense but the situation calls for a good effort. Cincinnati falls into two solid situations. Play against road teams that are outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after having lost five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 28-10 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (130) Cincinnati Bengals

Washington played very well last week in Dallas with Rex Grossman at quarterback. I expect the Redskins to once again play hard even though it is in a divisional sandwich with the Giants on tap for next week. They are 5-9 on the season but five of those losses have been by four points or fewer so the record could be better and it shows they have been competitive for the most part. Washington has played better on the road this season than at home and that will continue. Jacksonville

Dallas has improved considerably since former head coach Wade Phillips was fired but it has not gotten that much better where it should be laying a touchdown on the road against a team that is only one game worse. And yet the public cannot get enough of it. The Cowboys no doubt have the better offense in this matchup but they also no doubt have the worst defense in recent games and Arizona will be able to take advantage. Dallas has allowed 30 points or more in four straight games and is in a divisional sandwich. The Cardinals are coming off a loss at Carolina which came after a big home win over Denver the previous week. That was the first start for rookie quarterback John Skelton and it was a good one but he did not fare well in his first road start which was expected. Back in Arizona, he should once again play well. The Cardinals are 3-4 at home and this is the final home game of the season and while no longer in the same division, the Cowboys are still a very hated team. The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog while the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. Dallas is also just 4-20 ATS in its last 24 road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Meanwhile under head coach Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona is 10-1 ATS in its 11 home games against teams averaging 235 or more passing ypg and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 10* Arizona Cardinals

As everyone is aware, this game is being played at TCF Bank Stadium which is the home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Metrodome is a pretty solid home field advantage for the Vikings and while this is still a home game, it will be far from the same. The field conditions are reportedly horrendous as the field is like concrete and while it is the same for both teams, it favors the teams with a strong defense going up against a third-string quarterback. The Bears are coming off an embarrassing home loss last week against the Patriots and the conditions were worse than what they are going to see tonight. That is a big edge for Chicago. Not only does it need to bounceback from that defeat but the familiarity with the outdoor conditions is a solid advantage even though it is only a two-game thing. The Bears are even more eager to take this game following the loss last night by the Packers as a win here puts Chicago two games up in the NFC North. Minnesota is coming off a loss last Monday night against the Giants and the offense struggled with just 164 total yards. This week, the Vikings have to go with third-string quarterback Joe Webb and it will not be easy for the offense to survive. The Bears are ninth in the NFL in total defense including second in the league in rushing defense. That is a big edge for Chicago as Minnesota needs too have a running game to be successful with a third-stringer going and that just won

This line is based on an overreaction to what we have seen the last two weeks. The Jets were hammered in New England two weeks ago and last week they put up a dud at home against the Dolphins, clearly a letdown spot following that Patriots game. Now the public is saying this team is done as the offense has completely tanked and that in turn has given us tremendous line value here. The Jets were getting four points in New England two weeks ago and now they are getting more points in Pittsburgh which makes no sense. The Steelers are coming off back-to-back divisional wins which have pretty much locked up the AFC North. They have Carolina and Cleveland on deck and while they might give the Jets some extra attention because of that, I think we can expect a letdown effort here. As with the case with the Jets line comparison, the Steelers line comparison is off as well. They were favored by nine points last week against a team that has lost 10 straight games and now are favored by only a field goal less against a likely playoff team. The talk is about how New York has been horrible on offense the last two weeks but there are not better things taking place on the other side. Pittsburgh continues to shine on defense but this offense has been able to do nothing and that is a major concern. The Steelers have totaled one touchdown on offense in their last 11 quarters since scoring in the first quarter during a 19-16 overtime victory against the Bills. Part of the problem is an offensive line that is in shambles. While the Steelers defense remains the strength for them, the same can be said for the Jets as well. They were horrible against the Patriots but they are still third in the NFL in total defense and sixth in scoring defense so there is no reason to believe the Steelers will all of a sudden find their offensive rhythm. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in rushing defense but the Jets are not far behind and as far as yards per carry is concerned, the two are first and second in the league. The Jets have not scored an offensive touchdown over the last two games after piling up 26.3 ppg during its four-game winning streak. Granted those games were against some pretty bad teams and they have had their problems with the top teams in the league but this scenario is completely different. This is the biggest line the Jets have seen since last season and with two teams going through similar problems, the overinflated underdog is the way to go especially in what could be a low scoring defensive battle. The Jets have been very solid as underdogs in this range, san the New England game, as they are 6-1 SU and ATS as underdogs of fewer than a touchdown over the last two seasons. Going back further the Jets are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games coming off a home divisional loss. The Steelers meanwhile are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of two or more touchdowns. We take advantage of a line that is off by a good three points. 10* (325) New York Jets

We caught a bad beat last Thursday with the Colts which were backdoored with no time left against the Titans and while that was a horrible break for us, the Colts still won and that is big heading into this game. Last week Indianapolis was playing on a short week on the road but this week it is playing with three extra days of preparation at home which makes it a big edge. Last week was a must win for the Colts and the same hold true this week as winning out gives them the division. Jacksonville continues to play good enough to win and it has been extremely fortunate in three of its last four wins as those have come in the final two minutes and in one case, the final seconds. The Jaguars have surprised many with this late season run after starting the season 3-4 with those four losses all being blowouts. Their three road wins have come against teams that will not be in the playoffs while the three losses have come against teams that are in the playoff hunt. Indianapolis has been riddled with injuries this season and while the injury report is still loaded with questionable players, we could see some making returns this week. The big one is Austin Collie and his return would be a big addition. Indianapolis is ranked first in the NFL in passing offense, the ninth straight season it has been ranked in the top six in passing offense. Jacksonville meanwhile is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 8.7 ypa and its 258.3 ypg allowed is 28th. Indianapolis is going to have to contend with the Jaguars rushing offense as Jacksonville is ranked second in the NFL in rushing offense. The Colts meanwhile have been a sieve against the run but in this series, it has not been a huge factor as the Jaguars have outrushed the Colts in the last six meetings, averaging 156 ypg over that span, but the Colts have won four of those and the two games the Jaguars won, they won by only five points combined. This is a revenge game for the Colts and Peyton Manning does not lose these games. He is 19-1 in revenge games coming off a win including a win in this scenario this season as he defeated the Texans by 13 points following an earlier loss. After putting together his worst three-game stretch of his career, he came back last week with a great performance against the Titans and he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. It is safe to say he has not lost it. The Colts fall into a very solid power situation as well. Play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after two or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) since 1983. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the second half of the season against winning teams and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that rush for 4.5 ypc or better. 10* (308) Indianapolis Colts

In a rare NFL postponement due to weather, the Giants and Vikings game was rescheduled until Monday in Detroit. Many will say this is an edge for Minnesota and its quarterback situation but in my opinion this is a huge break for the Giants. With about 20 inches of snow falling in the Twin Cities area and the closing of the airport, the Giants' charter flight was diverted to Kansas City and the team spent Saturday night there. The move to Detroit meant an easier trip into the venue. According to the New York Daily News, it could've been worse, though, and it nearly was when the NFL was ready to enforce the original kickoff time despite the Giants' scrambled travel plans. As a result, the Giants were planning to wake up at 6 a.m. CT Sunday, board buses in Kansas City at 7:15 AM, and board their charter plane in time for an 8 AM takeoff. They were scheduled to land in Minneapolis at 9 AM and get to the Metrodome by 10 AM, just two hours before kickoff. As for injuries, the league got what it wanted but New York is not at a disadvantage. The extra day was good for the Vikings as it gave Brett Favre an extra day to rest his ailing shoulder and give him a chance to extend his NFL record for consecutive starts but he is still very questionable. However, the postponement may have benefitted the Giants even more as it game receivers Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks an extra day as well and that is huge for the Giants offense. As for the game itself, this is a must win for the Giants and with the switch, it is even more so now. They will have one less day of preparation for their game next week against the Eagles which could be a big issue if they lose this game and sit a game behind Philadelphia in the NFC East. Another benefit is that New York has already seen that the Eagles were winners on Sunday night so the Giants know they will need to leave Minnesota with a victory. The Giants will be looking for some payback as well. In last season

The Cowboys have completely turned their season around after the firing of head coach Wade Philips. Granted, the playoffs are not in the future for Dallas but it is playing like a team fighting for the playoffs and there is no reason to thing it stops here. Following a last second loss against the Saints on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys responded with a big road win at Indianapolis last week in overtime. There will be no letdown however with this being the first meeting against the hated Eagles on national television. The Eagles are coming off a win against Houston last Thursday so they have had extra preparation time for this game but I do not think it is that significant. Philadelphia has looked average the last two games following a three-game winning streak that included a win over the Colts, a blowout of the Redskins on Monday night and a domination of the then-red hot Giants. The Eagles were outgained against Houston and were completely outplayed in Chicago before making the game more respectable in garbage time. What Jason Garrett has done to the Cowboys has been pretty special as this team had tossed in the towel weeks ago. Garrett has encouraged more physical, up-tempo practices and that clearly gets players ready for upcoming games, something Philips could not do. The result has been more forced turnovers as Dallas has 11 takeaways in four games, and more big plays, including 18 of 20 or more yards on offense. The reason for the latter has been a great emphasis of running the ball, creating much more balance. The Cowboys have averaged 34 carries the last four games after averaging just 21 carries in the first eight contests. It is no surprise that Dallas has averaged almost 150 rushing yards in the last four games and last week, Tashard Choice rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries against the Colts. Quarterback Jon Kitna has benefited greatly from the Cowboys re-emphasis on the run game as he has thrown more than 30 passes just once in the last five games, but has completed 68 percent of his attempts and has averaged 7.89 ypa. Defensively, the Cowboys need to try and slow down Michael Vick, something not many teams have been able to do. He is obviously having a great season and the Cowboys defense has been far from strong this year but if there is going to be a full effort, this is the game it happens in, similar to how the defense showed up against the Giants. The Cowboys want to pressure the pocket on passing downs to maintain leverage on Vick in order to keep him in the pocket. The Eagles have allowed 33 sacks, 26th most in the NFL. The Cowboys fall in a solid time-tested situation. Play against road favorites that are coming off a home win, in December games. This simple yet effective situation is 116-70 ATS (62.4 percent) since 1983. Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after allowing 35 points or more while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 300 or more yards passing. The Eagles meanwhile are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (132) Dallas Cowboys

The Chargers were going to likely be a play this week depending what sort of line we got. Based on the results from Week 13, we are getting a better line than originally thought so this has turned into a much bigger play. San Diego was making its annual late season charge after a slow start until it was upset on Sunday against the Raiders, the second loss to Oakland this season. It could have been a case of a lookahead but even if not, the Chargers are in must win mode. The Chiefs remain in first place in the NFC West after squeaking out a win against the Broncos on Sunday. They are two games ahead of the Raiders and Chargers and they can end the Chargers division hopes and playoff hopes most likely with a win but it is not as easy as that. Heading west in a tough environment against a team whose season is on the line is tough for any team and even more so with revenge on the line. The Chiefs won the first meeting this season despite getting outgained by close to 200 yards. This is a line that the public will be all over the underdog and we are seeing that already. Kansas City has won two more games than San Diego yet is getting a touchdown on the road and that is going to draw a lot of action its way. I think we would have seen a line around eight or nine had the Chargers defeated the Raiders so the value is definitely on our side here. San Diego was favored by 13 points against a team that was a game worse buy only seven points against a team that is just two games better. The Raiders were able to knock off the Chargers because of a muffed punt by Daren Sproles and a Philip Rivers interception. They were able to turn both of those turnovers into touchdowns and in the end, that made the difference. That was almost d

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This is a revenge game for the Patriots and that is putting the public on the home team which is giving us value with this number. New England is favored by 3.5 pretty much everywhere across the board and in a divisional game between teams with identical records, the number is usually right at a field goal so we are catching a hook on top of the key number which can definitely come into play. However, this is a game that the Jets should take outright so it won

Pittsburgh and Baltimore square off for first place in the AFC North and it has the looks of another great battle. The last three meetings and five of the last six have been decided by four points or fewer but history does not mean much when it comes to this rematch. Pittsburgh lost the first meeting at home this season against the Ravens in Week Four which happened to be the last game of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger

Gamblers have short-term memories and this game is a prime example of that. The Bears are coming off a huge home win last week over the Eagles to make it four straight wins and suddenly, everyone is taking up Chicago. And that of course means the public will be all over the Bears after seeing the results from both sides last week. as of Friday morning, over 80 percent of the action is coming in on the Bears and the line keeps going up. I

This certainly isn

This number has dropped as expected and the best advice would be to get this in as soon as possible to get over a field goal as this could very easily go down to three points by gametime. The Rams lost a tough one last week at home against the Falcons and they were actually more into the game than the final score showed. An interception by Sam Bradford at the two-yard line cost St. Louis a score which could have pulled it to within two points. Still, the Rams are just a game out in the NFC West and can easily take this one. The Broncos, after a huge win over the Chiefs, went back to their old ways and were hammered by the Chargers on Monday night. That dropped Denver to 3-7 on the season and three games back in the division, all but ending any sort of playoff possibility. The game against San Diego was a big one and after going up 7-0 early, the Broncos got the wind taken out of them the remainder of the game which is going to cause a huge letdown here, especially with a losing team from the NFC making a trip. St. Louis has struggled on the road this season, going 0-4, but that record could easily be reversed as three of those losses came by one, two and three points so the Rams have been very competitive. They are just 2-18 away from home the last two plus seasons but a lot of that can be discarded as this team is so much different than past editions so we cannot worry about those recent road woes. Denver is just 2-3 at home this season, the only team in the division with a losing home record. The defense is the big difference for the Rams and has a big edge here as they are tied for fifth in the NFL with 28 sacks. That is a big problem for Denver as it is 26th in sacks allowed, giving up 26 on the year. The Rams' secondary did a good job of limiting Atlanta to just one pass of over 20 yards so getting pressure on Kyle Orton will duplicate that. On the other side, the Rams have not gotten Steven Jackson involved too much the last two week but they will here against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL. The Broncos have been horrible in this role as they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as *a home favorite and 1-9 ATS as any sort of favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points so getting anything over a field goal is big. Denver is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games off a road loss. Teams getting blown out on Monday night do not have a good track record the following game and with the Broncos season all but done, it makes it especially worse here. 10* St. Louis Rams

Atlanta looks to be in a great spot here. It has won four straight and eight of nine which means a lot of momentum coming home against another elite NFC team. The Falcons are 5-0 at home this season and with Matt Ryan starting, they are 18-1 in the 19 games he has been under center which is pretty impressive to say the least. This year however, the competition has been average with Baltimore and Tampa Bay being the only games against winning teams and both of those were decided in the final minutes. Green Bay has been just as hot as it has won four straight games, the last two coming in convincing fashion. The Packers three losses this season have all been by three points, two coming in overtime, so their record could be even better. They have been an underdog only once this season, at the Jets, and they have been a great team as an underdog over the last couple seasons, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of a field goal or less. The Packers explosive offense has been on display the last couple weeks after getting stymied against the Jets. That high-powered offense should keep the momentum going here as the Falcons weaknesses fall right into the strength of the Packers. Green Bay

This couldn

We are getting a ton of value in this number in my opinion and for a number of reasons. First, this is an overreaction to what the public is going to do which is simply bet the over. This is the night the over is bet the most and that won

This line is simply too high. The Saints have had a week off and are getting healthier but that is no reason to make them huge home favorites, especially when they couldn

We were on the Vikings last week as Brett Favre pulled off another one of his vanishing acts, just a week after his record game against the Cardinals. Now the season is really on the line, after the Bears win on Thursday, Minnesota now finds itself three and a half games back in the division. The problem has been the play on the road where the Vikings are 0-5. They are 3-1 at home this season and 13-1 in their last 14 home games and are now getting points at home for the first time since the start of the 2008 season. Green Bay has won three straight games and needs a win to keep pace with the Bears but this is not going to be a sure thing as the linesmakers may be telling us. The Packers are coming off a bye week which in my opinion, really hurts them. That three-game winning streak was the biggest all season and instead of taking time off, they would have been best to keep the thing going and keep the momentum rolling. A bye week is the worse rally killer there is in football. The Vikings are limiting opponents to 3.77 yards per carry, seventh-best in the league, and it would seriously hamper their ability to rush the passer if they had to pack the box with extra defenders to stop the run. The Packers are 19th in the league in rushing offense and managed only 84 yards on 23 carries (3.7 ypc) in the first meeting. The problem was the Vikings offense and the mistakes that were made. Look for Adrian Peterson, who was pretty non-existent last week, to be productive like he was in the first meeting. The Vikings haven't exactly lit it up this year on third down, converting 38 percent of their chances. It is extremely difficult to sustain drives when you can't depend on your offense to convert on those situations. While the Packers defense is solid, their third down defense is horrible as they are allowing a 40.7 percent third down conversion rate which is 23rd in the league. That is definitely surprising coming from a team that can pressure the quarterback. The Vikings converted 6 of 14 in the first meeting. The Packers offense is a different unit on the road than they are at home. Green bay is fourth in the NFL with 31 ppg ob average in its home games but on the road, it is averaging only 16.5 ppg. The scoring output is usually less in road games for most teams but for the Packers, it is huge. They have the second biggest home/road scoring differential in the league, trailing only Detroit. Minnesota meanwhile has the fourth biggest differential on defense as it allowed eight fewer ppg at home than on the road. The Vikings have two great situations in their favor. Play on underdogs or pickems (that are coming off a road loss with a winning percentage between 250 and .400 playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play against road favorites that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Minnesota Vikings

We went against the Bears last week and while we had to rip up the ticket, it was more of a case of the Vikings losing it than the Bears winning it. Chicago is a vastly overrated 6-3 team and this is a great spot to fade again. Of those six wins, the Bears were outgained in three of those and the three games they won the yardage battle came against teams with a combined record of 6-21. Chicago is 3-1 on the road which may seem solid until you consider those wins were against teams a combined 4-23. Miami finally picked up its first home win of the season last week against the Titans. It was a long time coming as it dropped its first three in Miami but deserved better as three of those four games resulted in total yardage advantages. The news this week is the quarterback situation as Chad squared went down last week with Pennington out for the season and Henne still up in the air. Tyler Thigpen will likely get the start and that is not all that bad as he has had success in the past and his mobility is a big asset. This is not an easy spot for the Bears as they are playing on a short week as well and have the travel involved. They have only a couple of practices before boarding a flight Wednesday while the Dolphins have another full day for a workout and meetings and that can be pretty important when it comes to teams of this caliber. Road teams are a respectable 14-17 in these Thursday games since the NFL Network started producing them which is decent but the disadvantages outweigh everything else. The biggest disadvantage that the Bears have in this game is in the trenches as Miami

As was the case last week, I would normally take a hard look at the home underdog in this spot but based on matchups, the Redskins just cannot be trusted. Washington is 4-4 on the season and it is a very surprising 4-4. The Redskins have been outgained in every game this season and that is something that cannot be overlooked. On average Washington is getting outgained by 67.7 ypg which is a large variance and shows that the Redskins have been more

I played against the Patriots last Sunday and because of the outright loss, we are getting excellent value in this number. The short-term memory of gamblers will remember the Browns defeating New England last week and not the five-game winning streak it had prior to that. The Patriots and Steelers are both right at the top of the AFC Power Ratings and if because of that, this spread should be sitting at a field goal. Getting the Patriots off a bad loss only makes this play stronger. The Steelers rebounded from that loss in New Orleans with a Monday night win last week against the Bengals. The good news is that Pittsburgh is home for the first time in a month but the bad news is that this is the third monster game in a row for this team and I don

This is a great spot for the Texans. Houston has lost two games in a row and three of its last four but it is still just a game out of first place in the AFC South. The best part is that it has four divisional games remaining and none of those are against the Colts. Speaking of the Colts, one of these two recent losses came against Indianapolis while the other was against the Chargers last week in a game Houston could have won. Had the Texans won that game, they would not be underdogs this Sunday. The Jaguars are coming off their bye week which followed a win at Dallas. Confidence from that victory was halted because of the week off but let

I was surprised with this opening number as both teams are ranked in the top five of the league making them pretty equal. When that is the case, it usually results in a pickem game with three points added to the home team which would make the Falcons a field goal favorite here but that is not the case and instead we are getting incredible value with the home team. Atlanta is 4-0 at home this season and going back to 2008, the Falcons are 17-1 in the 18 home games Matt Ryan has started. This is not an easy spot for the Ravens as they are playing on a short week as well and have the travel involved. They have only a couple of practices before boarding a flight Wednesday while the Falcons have another full day for a workout and meetings and that can be pretty important when it comes to teams of this caliber. Road teams are a respectable 14-16 in these Thursday games since the NFL Network started producing them which is solid but there are disadvantages in this case. While Matt Ryan has shown to be the focal point of the offense, the Falcons will have to run the ball successful to get the win and I don

It comes as no surprise that the Steelers are the favorite here and that the public is going to ride them. Normally I would take a hard look at the home underdog in this spot but Cincinnati is playing horrible right now as it has lost four consecutive games, both straight up and against the number. The thing is that all of those games could have gone the other way but the Bengals founds ways to lose. That is not a good ingredient for success in this league. Playing a divisional road favorite on Monday night is something that is not recommended often, but it is here. The Steelers are coming off a loss Sunday night at New Orleans to drop to 5-2 in the AFC North. That was a tough loss to take as Pittsburgh had plenty of opportunities but turnovers ended up being the ultimate difference. I don

Since 2000, excluding the final game of the season, there have been 69 shutouts in the NFL. Teams have gone 30-39 in their next game and while that may not seem very good, you have to look at it this way. The majority of teams that get shutout are bad to begin with so 30 wins is pretty good. How about good teams that were shutout? Teams that were favored in their next game went 16-10 and of those only four were road favorites. Those four teams went 3-1 SU and ATS with the only loss coming back in 2000. I started with that showing that we are in a rare spot laying points on the road with a team that is coming off a shutout. I am not a fan of laying road chalk but there are certain instances when it comes into play and this is one of those. The public is all over this, which I am not a fan of either but at least the line is moving the way it is supposed to as any reverse movement would make it tough to put down. This is one you can

This is a rematch of the opening day showdown between the Colts and Texans and this is a chance for Houston to take over the reigns of the AFC South. The Colts have not been swept by a divisional opponent since 2002 which is pretty remarkable but this is team that is vulnerable. They have outgained all but one opponent this season but they are not making things easy on themselves as the last three games have all come down to the final minutes. A bye week may have helped but just how much? Houston is playing some inconsistent football similar to Indianapolis, especially on the defensive side of the ball. It is no secret that the Texans are ranked last in the NFL in total defense and passing defense and that can be a pretty scary thought playing against the Colts and Peyton Manning. The line movement in this game is on our side as the public is on the Colts at close to 60 percent as of Monday morning yet the line has gone down from an opening of -6. That reverse move is a big take sign. Houston lost linebacker and captain DeMeco Ryans in its last game against Kansas City and that is a huge blow to the stop unit. The Colts do not have their usual advantage however as they have a banged up offense. Tight end Dallas Clark is gone for the season while wide receiver Austin Collie and running back Joseph Addai and highly doubtful for tonight. The good news is that Anthony Gonzalez is back but still not at full speed and Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are also part of the injury list. Houston's defense called a players-only meeting last week, a move usually reserved for backs-against-the-wall situations.

New Orleans is certainly going through its post Super Bowl hangover stage. The Saints are 4-3 on the season and those three losses are the same amount that they had all of last season so what gives? For starters, turnovers are absolutely killing them right now and a lack of focus is not far behind. The last four games New Orleans has played Carolina, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, not exactly the caliber of teams that is going to get a team electrified. Tonight, it will be different. The Steelers have gotten off to a great start as they are 5-1 with the only loss coming against Baltimore on a last minute touchdown. They survived with Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines and have won in the two games he has been back but I am not totally convinced just yet. Pittsburgh should have lost last week and was fortunate to defeat the Falcons in overtime in the opener. If those go the other way, the Steelers are 3-3 right now and there is no way this game would be close to a pickem. Looking at the statistics, we see that the Steelers have not come close to dominating the opposition. They are outgaining opponents by a mere 1.4 ypg and they have yet to outgain a foe by more than 84 total yards. On the other side, the Saints have outgained each of their last four opponents by 132 or more yards and are +83.5 ypg in yardage differential on the season. The reason the records are what they are is that Pittsburgh is +8 in turnovers while the Saints are -5. While turnovers usually are contagious, we cannot continue to bank on them to remain on their current trend. The Saints' defense has taken the ball away just twice in the past five games and for the season, they are tied for 22nd in the NFL with nine takeaways. Last season at this time, the Saints had forced 21 turnovers and had returned six for touchdowns. It is no wonder there is a three-game difference from then until now. This year though, we should start seeing it even out. Even though the takeaways are down, the defense has been playing much better. The Saints' defense ranks third in the league in total defense this season, 22 spots ahead of where they were ranked last season. A lot of it has to do with the offenses they have taken on but let

How is a 1-5 team favored over a team that is 4-3? That is exactly what the public is thinking and for that reason, it is hammering the Redskins. Despite the difference in records, it is hard to argue that Washington is the better of the two teams here. All four wins have come by six points or fewer and two of the losses have been by a field goal which shows how close it has been to a disaster of a season. Coming off a win on the road last week puts the Redskins in a difficult spot this week. Detroit has more than held its own despite a rough start to the season. The Lions have been hanging around in every game thus far with the exception of the Minnesota game so their 5-1 ATS record comes as no surprise. They are a point away from being undefeated against the number and despite this, the public is backing off. That gives us tremendous line value. On top of that, the Lions opened at -1 and the line has gone up despite the public being in the other side which is a take for the reverse line movement. As mentioned, most of the Redskins games have been close with the exception of a 14-point road loss at St. Louis. However, they have not been the more dominant team in nay of those. Washington has been outgained in all seven of its games and coming away with a winning record despite that shows there has been a big amount of good fortune. On the other side, the Lions have won the yardage battle in half of their games and are actually outscoring their opponents on average. The Lions will be getting quarterback Matt Stafford back this week after missing the last five games with a shoulder injury. While rust is a concern, reports out of practice refute that. Stafford has been sharp and his timing has been spot on according to players and coaches. This is a great sign as the Lions offense, which is ranked 11th in the NFL in scoring, goes up against the 31st ranked defense in the league as Washington is allowing 406 ypg including 292.1 ypg through the air, also 31st in football. The Redskins have allowed a league-high 106 plays of 10-plus yards and Detroit has the caliber of offense that can add to that, especially with Calvin Johnson in the mix. On the other side, Washington has been getting it done because of a +8 turnover margin, the best in the NFC. A big problem this week is the health of quarterback Donovan McNabb as he is battling hamstring and groin injuries. The big plays have been non-existent the last two weeks and his quarterback rating of 76.0 is his lowest since his rookie season. The Lions defense is nothing to write home about but Washington hasn

This is a big game for both sides as the NFC East is shaping up to be a four-team race this season, That is, if the Cowboys can get their act together. They enter this game 1-4 on the season and they are certainly one of the best 1-4 teams we have seen in the league in many years. Obviously losing is no good but Dallas has been dominating opponents and it

A great system comes into play here and one that we have used and been successful with because the value is tremendous. The Bills are 0-5 and have been outgained in every game this season so why are we backing them? First, as mentioned, there is a ton of value in this line as the public wants nothing to do with them. Buffalo is coming off a bye week and home underdogs that have had a week off have been extremely solid propositions in the past. It gives these bad teams a chance to regroup and get their motor running again. This came into play last season when Tampa Bay came off their bye week at 0-7 and faced Green Bay. We used Tampa Bay as in that game and the Buccaneers ended up winning it outright. Another great example is St. Louis doing it two years in a row in 2007 and 2008 when it came out of the bye 0-8 and 0-4 respectively and also covered and won outright. Play on underdogs that are at least 0-4 and coming off a bye week and this situation is 19-2 ATS. Looking at this matchup and we see Buffalo not at that much of a disadvantage. Baltimore is coming off a brutal game and loss at New England and while many will see a bounceback here, it is simply not that easy. Asking a team to win by two touchdowns is tough enough but coming off a physical game against the Patriots makes it even tougher. The Ravens do fall into a situation of being a big favorite heading into a bye which is normally favorable but it is negated this week. Buffalo is coming off a poor effort in its last game prior to the bye as it was defeated at home against the Jaguars. It was a game we were on and the Bills came out strong but folded at the end. There have been some changes, most notably the trade of running back Marshawn Lynch. That opens the door for Fred Jackson, who rushed for 73 yards on 12 carries (6.1 ypc) against Jacksonville and the Bills will go with him more seeing that the Ravens are allowing 4.3 ypc, 23rd in the league. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick confirmed that the Bills spent part of their bye week looking at more ways to get Jackson the ball. On the season Jackson is averaging 5.0 ypc and now that he is the main focus, we should expect really good things. Speaking of good things, after his game against Jacksonville, Fitzpatrick moved to fourth best in the NFL with a passer rating of 99.9. The Ravens defense is a lot stronger than that of the Jaguars but Buffalo is moving the right way. The Bills also fall into another great contrarian league-wide situation. Play on road teams with a scoring defense that is allowing 27 or more ppg, after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -2.8 ppg. Buffalo meanwhile is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 35 or more points. 10* Buffalo Bills

As far as totals are concerned, we need to look outside the box and try to get the best value out there. You cannot simply base it on what we are to expect because those totals are adjusted by the linesmakers. As an example, the Jets came into the season with a top defense yet are 5-1 to the

There is a ton of value in this total as we are getting an overinflated number because of several factors. First off, it is Monday night and the betting public will be all over a high scoring game. This is the trend that takes place on MNF and public money always comes in on the

I had this game circled two weeks ago. My thinking then was that we have the Chiefs coming off a big game at Indianapolis and travelling for a second straight week which makes any game after the Colts a letdown spot, win or lose. We also have the Texans going into a bye week after this game and playing big favorites going into a bye are very favorable. Even though the situation changed slightly which I will get into, it remains a great spot for Houston. I went against the Chiefs last week as a smaller play and they fell short against Indianapolis in a game that was close the majority of the time. The good news for us is that the Chiefs played their hearts out so getting up this week will be a little more difficult. I was very impressed with Kansas City last week keeping the game as close as it did although I think that had just as much to do with the Colts being out of sync as the Chiefs playing well. I

At this point, who would have thought Tampa Bay would have a better record than New Orleans through the first five weeks of the season? I know I didn

Cincinnati is coming off a game it really should have won last week but we cashed a ticket so we are happy about it and we are happy with the circumstances that it proves this week. The Bengals outgained the Browns by 118 total yards and that was the third time in four games they have outgained their opponent with the lone exception being a -6-yard differential against the Ravens. Cincinnati has a bye next week and that sets up a great situation explained later. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye which came after its first loss of the season against the Steelers and it sure was not pretty. That dropped the Buccaneers to 2-1 on the season following wins in their first two games against the Browns and Panthers which are a combined 1-7 so the 2-1 record is a little inflated. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all three games and the youth is really starting to show. Going back to last season the Buccaneers have won three straight on the road but the situation is much different now. It is time for the Bengals to get their power running game going. Cincinnati is averaging only 92 ypg on 3.3 ypc and Cedric Benson has been nowhere to be found. That changes here. Tampa Bay is allowing 141.3 ypg on 4.8 ypc, both 28th in the NFL, and they struggled with Pittsburgh's power running game. Tampa Bay does have three very active and productive linebackers, but collectively, they are not a great take-on unit against Cincinnati's downhill ground attack. This will be Benson

The Bills have shown so far to be one of the worst teams in the league through the first four weeks of the season as they are 0-4 so it is no surprise the majority is lining up on Jacksonville for this one. Buffalo has played three likely playoff teams over the last three weeks and with Miami being 2-2, it is a possible four teams that could be seeing postseason action. This is not a way of justifying their winless record but they have played the second toughest schedule thus far so they finally get a break this week. Jacksonville is 2-2 on the season following its improbable win over the Colts last week as a 59-yard field goal as time expired was the difference. The Jaguars are not as good as that 2-2 record indicates as they have been outgained in all four games and if not for a break against Denver and that lengthy field goal last week, they could easily be sitting at 0-4 as well. Jacksonville obviously does not want to drop to 2-3 but that victory over Indianapolis provides us with a huge letdown spot to play against. The Bills offense has been a disaster this year as they are averaging 237.2 ypg which is dead last in the NFL. It is due to a horrid passing game that is averaging a league-low 131.8 ypg but that can be attributed to the now departed Trent Edwards who posted a 58.3 rating in two games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely better for this offense and his rating of 88.1 in two starts is pretty solid. The Bills average 105.5 ypg which is right in the middle of the NFL. Their 4.7 ypc is sixth best and they will have success here. Jacksonville has been decent against the run but that is due to teams lighting it up through the air with no need to run. The Jaguars have seen the 11th fewest rushing attempts this season and they are allowing 4.3 ypc which is 20th in the NFL. Buffalo will be able to run on this defense and with that, Fitzpatrick can have another big day just like he did against the Patriots, which are 28th in the NFL in passing defense, as the Jaguars are 30th in passing defense. The 9.2 ypa is easily the worst in the league. Buffalo will have to key on Maurice Jones-Drew despite him being off to a slow start as he is averaging only 80.5 ypg on 3.9 ypc. The Bills need to crowd the box and throw some creative blitzes to force David Garrard to throw and make him beat them. Buffalo has been shredded on defense but the first four games have come against three teams that are ranked first, fifth and fifth in ppg. Jacksonville and Miami average around the same ppg and Buffalo played well then and the Jaguars are a step below the Dolphins. Play on home teams that are coming off a loss by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last five seasons. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg and they are a horrible 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after facing a divisional opponent. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games off a double-digit loss against an opponent off a straight up and ATS win. 10* Buffalo Bills

This number may seem high to some but I feel it could even be higher. This is easily the highest posted number both teams have seen this season but it is something that is not a concern. Last year, both meetings stayed

San Diego dropped to 1-2 following a loss in Seattle last week and it was the second time this season that the Chargers should have won when they lost. San Diego outgained the Chiefs by 192 yards and outgained the Seahawks by 247 yards so a total yardage differential of +439 yards was for naught. This line may seem high for some people for a team that is 1-2 to be laying but I consider there to be a lot of value on the Chargers because if they were actually 3-0, this number would be closer to two touchdowns. Arizona meanwhile is 2-1 and my thinking is that it should be 0-3. We got away with a push with the Cardinals in opening week as the Rams played them tougher than expected. Last week in Oakland, Arizona should have lost but the Raiders missed a short field goal that would have ended the game. The Cardinals have been outgained by 177 yards and 137 yards the last two games and Arizona is only one of two teams with a winning record that have been outgained by more than 50 ypg on average. The Cardinals offense is pretty offensive with Derek Anderson as quarterback. They are averaging only 290.7 ypg which is near the bottom of the NFL and making matters worse, receivers Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are out for this game which makes it a lot easier for the Chargers to key on Larry Fitzgerald. Anderson has a passer rating of 67.6 which is fifth worst of any quarterback that has started all three games this season. You can bet the Chargers will stack the box and make Anderson beat them. Good luck Derek. Arizona defensively is not that good as it has struggled in the early part of the season, allowing 377.7 ypg and 25.7 ppg, 26th and 25th in the league respectively. The Cardinals are allowing 231.3 ypg through the air which is middle of the pack but that number could go up after they face Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who has thrown for an NFL-high 1,087 yards. The rushing defense is the real weakness and rookie Ryan Mathews can have a huge game if healthy and that will set up the passing game even more. The Chargers have made the playoffs in each of the last four years and they have started 1-2 in two of those years while never starting 3-0 so this is definitely a position they are used to. And it isn

We played on the 49ers last week and they came up small, real small. The short week and the heartbreaking Monday night loss to the Saints obviously took their toll more than we thought. Now at 0-3, San Francisco is really in desperation mode and this spot sets up real well to break into the win column. The 49ers are travelling for a second straight week however this week sets up better than last week coming off that Monday nighter and the 49ers are 2-1 ATS in the second of consecutive roadies under Mike Singletary. On the other side, the Falcons are coming off a monster victory over the Saints in New Orleans and it was a very fortunate victory than came in overtime thanks to a missed field goal on the other side. Even so, fortunate or not, it was a game they had circled on the schedule and this week spells letdown, especially with a winless team coming to visit. It was Atlanta

Everyone saw Peyton Manning and the Colts manhandle the Giants on national television Sunday night and that is going to get the public on the road team this Sunday. Indianapolis is a very public betting team to begin with so taking value away and putting it on the home team is always beneficial. Going back to last season, the Colts are 6-2 ATS as road favorites with one of those losses coming this year at Houston. Indianapolis cannot possibly lose another road game right? The final score against Seattle shows a blowout but the boxscore shows only a 30-yard advantage for the Broncos so many will find that misleading. However, it is not misleading as Seattle outgained Denver 99-6 in the final three drives for both teams when the game was already decided. At one point, Denver scored in four of five possessions between the second and fourth quarters and all of those scoring drives were 80 yards or longer. There were issues but the Broncos were still in complete control. Denver will be playing with a heavy heart on Sunday following the tragic death of receiver Kenny McKinley. McKinley, a fifth-round pick of the Broncos in 2009, was on Denver's injured reserve and out for the year with a knee injury that he suffered early in the preseason. He played in just eight games last season a rookie but it matter none about playing time as he was part of the Denver family. Situations like this always gets a team to give it that extra and try to win for their fallen teammate. These two teams met in Indianapolis last season and the Colts were able to jump on top with an early 21-0 lead and never looked back. The Colts were 12-0 at the time while Denver came in 8-4 and Indianapolis was favored by only 6.5 points. I say only because of the comparison to the line this year that has seen a change of venue. Not a whole lot has changed since that meeting so making Indianapolis the favorite by roughly the same number in Denver is a complete overadjustment. Manning is up to his old tricks but flying under the radar here is Kyle Orton who has put up a passer rating of 103.9 which is good for sixth best in the NFL. Playing at home has been pure gold for him as he is 20-5 as a starter and he can build off of last year

If the records of these two teams were reversed, what would this line be? The 49ers would probably be favored by six points or thereabouts and that would make the dynamic of this game completely different. The actual records do in fact give us value in this number but it is very safe to assume that the 49ers could be undefeated while the Chiefs could be winless. Instead, the 49ers find themselves in an absolute must win situation to keep their season afloat. Kansas City has gotten off to a 2-0 start but it certainly isn

This is a rematch from the old NFC West days before division realignment took place in 2002. These teams have met five times since then and New Orleans has had the upper hand by going 5-0 both straight up and against the number with the wins coming by an average of 14 ppg. While this past history means little for this game, it does provide the trend players some basis to play on the Saints and that can provide value going our way. Most important, the 49ers are eager for a bounceback. San Francisco was annihilated at Seattle last week 31-6 as a field goal favorite and all of the talk about the 49ers taking over the reigns of the NFC West has fallen off. Interestingly is that San Francisco actually outgained the Seahawks in that game by 21 total yards and it was not because of garbage time drives and yards. The 49ers got down to the Seattle six-yard line twice and to the five-yard line once in their first three drives but ended up with only six points. It didn

This line is a complete overreaction to the Week One results and not the teams as a whole. The Texans are once again one of the hot sleeper teams in the NFL and following their win over Indianapolis on opening week, there may be some truth to that. But does that win over the Colts really give Houston the right to be road favorites? This is certainly a rare occasion for Houston as since the franchise went to Houston, the Texans have been road favorites only six times, going 1-5 ATS in those games. This line has to be a slap in the face to the Redskins and trust me, they will have seen this line. They are coming off a win against the Cowboys on national television Sunday night and the public is going to see that game as a lucky win because of the holding call that ended the game and took away the Cowboys winning touchdown. If that is what the public thinks, that is fine by me. The Redskins probably did not deserve to win as they were outgained but a win is a win and it actually adds value to our side. We can also look at this line in a different way but it is essentially the same in giving us value. Basically, with Houston being favored by a field goal this week, they are saying that Dallas is only a half-point better than the Texans. If those two teams played on a neutral field this week, there is no way the Cowboys would be close to a pickem in that meeting as they would be favored by at least a field goal. Houston also goes from a home underdog to a road favorite which is a rare occurrence in this league. Houston took out the Colts despite a pretty average game from Matt Schaub as he went just 9-17 for 107 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He did not need to throw as Arian Foster was running wild and while the Colts stop unit is a good one, the Redskins are a notch above them. We really didn

This is a great spot for Atlanta. One very solid early season strategy is to play the bounce angle. This is to play on Week One losers on the road and now coming home to play Week One Winners. This system went just 1-2 last season (Chicago win, Detroit loss and Miami loss) those two losses missed the cover by a combined five points and they came against Minnesota and Indianapolis respectively. Arizona is neither of those two teams and that makes this spot a good one for the home team. The Falcons are coming off a very tough loss in Pittsburgh in overtime as the Steelers scored on their first place from scrimmage in the extra session. Atlanta was outgained by 59 total yards in the game and that final run was for 50 yards so they basically played the Steelers even through four quarters and the score indicated that. Based on that line, which was Atlanta -1, that would make the Falcons -7 against the Steelers at home based on the venue change. Roethlisberger or not, Pittsburgh and Arizona should not be even. The Cardinals went on the road and defeated the Rams by four points in quarterback San Bradford

I tend to shy toward the home underdog in spots like this, especially in the divisional games, but I am not to enthusiastic about the Rams here. This is partly a play against St. Louis, which does not look to take a big forward step this season, but it is more of a play on the Cardinals. This is a statement game for Arizona. With the loss of Kurt Warner as well as other key departures, the two-time division champions are being given no chance to repeat. That will be taken personal. The Cardinals will be going with a quarterback that wasn

I was hoping to catch the Steelers in a home underdog spot in this opener and sure enough we have it. Obviously it is due to the absence of Ben Roethlisberger but what would the line in this game be if he were playing? Looking at last season, the Steelers were favorites in every home game with six of those lines being -5.5 or higher. I

We really could not ask for much better of a matchup than we have for the opening game Thursday night. The Vikings head back to New Orleans for a rematch of last season

With Indianapolis and New Orleans heading to Miami for the Super Bowl, it marks the first time since 1993 that the two number one seeds from each conference have advanced. That alone should make for an entertaining game and I think one that is gong to make the average fan enjoy the game. I have read so many conflicting stories about this line and where it opened. According to the Las Vegas Sun, the Colts opened as a 5.5-point favorite Sunday evening by Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the group that sets the betting line. Within one hour, however, the number was bet down to 4.5 points at the Las Vegas Hilton and Station Casinos properties. For what it is worth, the number opened at -3 at offshore sites and was quickly bet up to -4 to -4.5 to -5 to -5.5. Obviously these two do not coincide with each other as each is stating that the sharp money came in to move the lines but both went in opposite directions because the opposite teams were taken. The point of this blurb is that the opening money is not our concern here as a lot of that money is bet to set up middle opportunities later. Right now our concern is the line going forward and I do not expect to see a lot of movement during the first week since the casual better is not going to tie up money for two weeks. We will see this number move most likely the middle of next week and it has no where to go but up in my opinion. Therefore, the advice here is to wait as we won

I have been struggling with this line this week. There is not much of a difference between these two teams as both possess potent offenses and solid defenses so if anything, we should expect a close game. Therefore anything over a field goal is worth a look and currently, most books as of Thursday afternoon have this line over that key number of three. The Vikings look inviting because of that and I think the public is seeing the same as the early money has come in on the road team and brought this number down from an opening of -4 and even -4.5 in some places. Also, considering that a top seed from the NFC has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1999 may be taking some people off of New Orleans and putting them on the Vikings. I think that is a meaningless trend. That being said and looking more into the on-the-field matchups, the Saints are the call here. We cashed an easy ticket with the Vikings last week as they dominated Dallas. Or did they? They outgained the Cowboys by 75 total yards but 37 of those yards came on that controversial last touchdown drive so the yardage disparity was not that big. The Cowboys could not move the ball after left tackle Flozell Adams left the game and he was a huge loss. Dallas gained 108 yards in the first quarter compared to 110 yards in the final three quarters combined (not counting sack yards) after he left. It is hard to say one player on the line can make a big difference like that but the Vikings pressured Tony Romo to no end after that and that resulted in turnovers and sacks galore. Can Minnesota get the same pressure on New Orleans? It is definitely possible as the defensive line is solid but the Saints allowed only 20 sacks all season long and Drew Brees has the ability to pick apart any defense. The Cardinals were unable to get to Brees last week after getting constant pressure on Aaron Rodgers the previous week, sacking him five times. I do like the under in this game and part of that reason obviously is the Vikings defense as it is a great unit. However, while it may slow down the Saints, I don

I liked the Jets last week and I like them even more this week. I believed they had a realistic shot to beat the Chargers outright and that obviously was the case and the same goes for Sunday against the Colts. New York has already gone into Indianapolis and defeated the Colts once this season so who is to say it cannot do it again? Of course we will get the argument that Indianapolis sat its starters in the third quarter which allowed the Jets to come back and win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course that helped but we cannot forget that the Jets were only down by five points at that point and they were playing good enough to pull off the upset anyway. We cannot use that game as a comparison but we can certainly use last week when New York completely took the Chargers offense out of their game. Philip Rivers threw for 283 yards but he threw two interceptions, only the fourth time that had happened all season long. This Jets defense is getting the respect it deserves as they have allowed 15 points or fewer in eight straight games, giving up an average of only 9.4 ppg over that stretch. Overall this season they have allowed 17 points or less in 13 of 18 games. The Colts came away with a 17-point victory against Baltimore but it was another bad game in my opinion. It may have been related to rust as the starters played for the first time in three weeks but that are issues going on. The Indianapolis offense, while still potent with Peyton Manning under center, does not look like that same wide-open, quick strike unit that we have seen in the past. It is more of a short passing attack and the fact that the Colts cannot run the ball only makes matter worse for them. What we have here is the NFL

**9** NFL SUNDAY STAR ATTRACTION **LATE** I went against the Jets last weekend against the Bengals for two reasons. I thought there was excellent value on the Bengals based on the shellacking they took in New York in Week 17 as well as the fact the Jets were sending a rookie quarterback on the road for his first ever playoff start. A lot of credit goes out to Mark Sanchez for that game. Even though he did not put up great numbers, he managed the game like he was supposed to do, did not commit any mistakes and played extremely efficient. It helps having a strong running game behind him and there is no reason to think that is going to change here against the Chargers. News York is ranked first in the NFL in rushing offense while its 4.5 ypc is ranked fifth best. The Chargers meanwhile are ranked 20th in rushing defense and its 4.5 ypc allowed is tied for 24th. New York played seven games against teams ranked in the top half of the league in rushing defense and it went 3-4 in those games. It played eight games against teams ranked 22nd or worst in rushing defense (where San Diego is) and it went 5-3 in those games. One loss came against New Orleans because of turnovers, another came against Buffalo in windy conditions and the third came in New England in a big revenge game. The Jets have outrushing their last seven opponents and they are 6-1 in those games. A few weeks ago I was asked who would be most likely to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and the answer was San Diego. While the Chargers are the hottest team in the conference, I am no longer sure they have what it takes to get it done. Two key ingredients to winning in the NFL playoffs are a good running game and a good defense. San Diego does have either of those while the Jets do. Quarterback Philip Rivers has had a sensational season and he has single handedly carried the Chargers to a lot of the success they have had. But if he gets taken out of his passing game, there is not much to fall back on. San Diego is second to last in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging just 88.9 ypg while its 3.3 ypc is dead last in the league. Obviously it has not hurt so far considering the Chargers have won 11 straight games however San Diego has been fortunate to have played a very soft schedule this season as it is ranked 27th in the NFL. They have played seven games this season against teams ranked 26th or worst in rushing defense and they went 6-1 in those games, losing only to Denver by a point. Conversely, they played five games against teams ranked in the top ten in rushing dense and they went only 3-2 in those games with two wins coming by just a field goal and the other by eight points. This cannot be discounted and facing the eighth ranked Jets rushing defense is going to pose another challenge. This line you will notice is +7.5 in some places and +9 in others and the difference is because of teaser protection on the Chargers. The linesmakers know that games ending with a final score deficit of eight or nine are rare so pushing the number up to nine does not hurt as it can only save them on teasers. However, the bigger the better so shop around still. 9* New York Jets

**10** PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR *62% RUN* Once Dallas won yet again on Saturday, this game was circled as the spot just is not a good one for the Cowboys. The rating went up based on this line which is shorter than I expected. The Cowboys have been involved in some big games of late as they have played three straight division games following back-to-back games against San Diego and New Orleans. Obviously they have performed well in those spots, going 4-1 while winning the statistical battle in all, but that actually helps us now. Everyone is hearing how good the Cowboys are playing right now and about how they are all of a sudden a team that looks like it may make a Super Bowl run. That kind of talk is putting a lot of money on the side of Dallas and shifting the value in our direction which would normally be a rarity. The Vikings and Brett Favre were one of the most public teams the entire season so getting them at this price on their home field is worthy of a big take. Minnesota finished the regular season with a perfect 8-0 record at home and that includes three wins against teams that made it to the playoffs this season. The schedule overall was far from daunting as was ranked easiest in the NFL but the fact that the Vikings went 3-0 in the three games against teams in the top ten shows that they were able to win the big games and they cannot be blamed for playing a soft schedule. Minnesota definitely faltered toward the end of the season with three losses in the last five games but those three defeats came on the road on grass fields and this is a completely different team when playing in the dome. The Vikings offense averaged close to a touchdown more per game at home than on the road while putting up 425.8 ypg. They will be challenged by a Cowboys defense that is playing its best of the season right now as it is coming off two straight shutouts following by a 14-point effort in the second home matchup with the Eagles. However there are way to go after that defense and a balanced offense is certainly a good place to start. The Eagles have no balance, the Redskins have no balance and the Saints, who are definitely more balanced, three it 45 times and ran it only 13 times in the meeting against Dallas. The Vikings have one of the best running backs in football as well as one of the best quarterbacks in the game as well. Minnesota averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game and 29.2 rush attempts per game and that is the type of balance that can keep a defense on its toes. The running game will be won by the Vikings and with that normally comes a win on the scoreboard. Dallas has been dominant in the running game of late but a lot of that has been due to competition and venue. Minnesota has yard per carry advantages based on the home and road numbers and I feel they are in excellent shape once again here despite the Cowboys recent success. The Vikings returned to the field on Sunday after their week off to rest and heal, and every player participated in the short practice which is huge since nagging injuries also hurt Minnesota down the stretch. The run for the Cowboys puts Minnesota into a great contrarian situation. Play against teams that are coming off three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, Dallas is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 road games after gaining more than 400 total yards last game and it is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after allowing a touchdown or less in the first half in two straight games. 10* Minnesota Vikings

**9** NFL SATURDAY TOTALS **DOMINATOR** This total opener higher than I thought it would but looking at it further, this is the number that had to come out. We saw all four games in the Wild Card round go

**10** NFL ENFORCER (SUNDAY) **20-10 L3Y** This is the third meeting this season between the Packers and Cardinals although one of those games took place in the preseason. You might think that these teams would know each other for this reason alone but in fact they really don

**9** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *67% POST RUN* Since the start of the 2002 season, the Patriots have played seven playoff games at home and in only one of those, they were favored by less than four points. That game resulted in a win over the Colts in January of 2005 but the point is the Patriots seem to be in unfamiliar territory. New England is 8-0 at home this season and it is 8-0 at home in playoff games under Tom Brady. That should mean chalk up another one for the Patriots but I am not sold on this team at all. They have been extremely inconsistent all season and with the exception of the win over Baltimore this season, they defeated only one other playoff team at home and that was the Jets in a big revenge game. One thing for Baltimore that is being talked about it its less than impressive résumé against quality opponents and who can argue? Baltimore went 1-6 against teams that made the playoffs and that may be considered a problem. Or is it? One of the losses came in New England by six points where a dropped pass by Mark Clayton was the possible difference between a win or a loss. The Ravens defeated the hottest team in the league in San Diego. The other losses came against Green Bay by 13 points, two tight losses against the Bengals, a loss to the Vikings by two points and a loss to the Colts by two points. Yes, the record is 1-6 but if there is average good 1-6, this is it. On the injury from, there is good news for the Ravens and bad news for the Patriots. For Baltimore, Ed Reed came back last week against the Raiders after missing four games with a knee injury. His presence alone is enormous. A lesser known player is back but one that is just as important. Left tackle Jared Gaither, who missed three games with a foot injury before returning against Oakland, is back in the starting lineup, anchoring a tackle spot that helped the Ravens' ground attack average 137.5 ypg which was fifth best in the NFL. His return is just as important but is definitely flying under the radar. On the other side, the loss of Patriots receiver Wes Welker cannot be understated. He led the NFL with 123 receptions, finished second in yardage with 1,348 yards and his 96.3 ypg was also second best. He had six games where he went over 100 yards receiving and the Patriots went 5-1 with the lone loss being a one-point setback in Miami. They went 5-5 in the other eight games he played as well as the two games he missed. It is a significant loss. Baltimore is 9-7 and a couple breaks its way instead of against it and you are looking at this team being 11-5 or 12-4 or even better as of those seven losses, four came by a field goal or less. Play on road teams involving two teams with winning records that are revenging a loss. This situation is 43-20 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Baltimore Ravens

**9** NFL STAR ATTRACTION **90% ANGLE** Judging by the way Philadelphia played this past Sunday, the Cowboys like the easy take. If only it were that easy. The best way to look at that game in my opinion is to simply throw it out. It was not an indication of how the Eagles have been playing as it is more of an aberration than anything. Philadelphia was shutout for the first time in four years and because of the loss, the Eagles dropped from the second seed to the sixth seed and now will have to win three road games instead of one home game and one road game to make it to the Super Bowl. I like Philadelphia when it is down however and it seems to play better when it isn

**10** NFL ENFORCER *15-6 YTD* *20-10 L3Y* It is safe to assume that Cincinnati wanted to lose against the Jets on Sunday. The Bengals simply went through the motions against New York as it gave nothing away knowing a rematch would take place in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs next week in Cincinnati. Had three Bengals won, they would have been the number three seed and would have hosted Baltimore, a team they had beaten twice this season but that was a divisional foe they had played twice with both games being highly competitive. This is the draw Cincinnati wanted and whether it los on purpose is debatable but now it looks to get its revenge on the Jets who are a pretty lucky group right now. New York was left for dead a few weeks back after losing at home to Atlanta but because everything went right, the Jets were able to make it into the playoffs. It was a second straight win against a team that backed down as the Jets defeated previously undefeated Indianapolis last Sunday when Peyton Manning and other Colts starters were pulled in the second half. Several other teams in playoff contention lost, setting up the Jets

This is easily the best game of the day and it is surprising this was not picked up by NBC for the Sunday night game. The winner of this game takes home the NFC East plain and simple. Advantage home team right? Not really as the home field advantage of Cowboys Stadium has not lived up to the hype. 10 teams have won more home games than the Cowboys entering the final weekend of the regular season and they have lost two of the three games they have played against opponents with a winning record at Cowboys Stadium. Dallas comes into this game with a two-game winning streak which is surprising since it is December and both of those came on the road. This is a revenge game for the Eagles who lost at home to Dallas back on November 8th. That defeat was the first of two straight before Philadelphia got things back in order. It has won six straight games since a loss to the Chargers and it has won the yardage battle in six of the last seven games overall. While the division is at stake here, a week off is also at stake for the Eagles who can claim the second seed in the NFC East with a win and that means an all important bye week next week. Making it even more important, a loss here coupled with wins by Minnesota and Arizona would mean a fall all the way to the fifth spot and a game in this same stadium next week. The Cowboys are in the same boat as this game means everything also but right now it is Philadelphia playing better all around. The revenge factor puts the Eagles into a great situation. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss, in a game involving two teams that are winning between 60 and 75 percent of their games in the second half of the season. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* Philadelphia Eagles

The Broncos were the surprise of the NFL early this season and they stormed out to a 6-0 start. It has been all downhill since however with the exception of a couple good efforts thrown in there. They are 2-7 over their last nine games and yet are being asked to win this game by double-digits. Why? Because they are in the classically overhyped

**10** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *15-4 10* RUN* This line is a complete overreaction to recent events and is not taking the whole situation into account. Jacksonville has dropped three straight games while the Browns have won three straight games so they have been tabbed the slight favorite here. Winning three straight games is a big accomplishment and Cleveland has not seen that happen since 2001 but let

The term

Had the Giants won last week, this line would probably be around the range of -4. But because New York lost last week it has nothing to play for while the Vikings need this win and an Eagles loss against Dallas to claim the number two seed in the NFC. I highly doubt the Giants are going to throw in the towel no matter what happened last week. If there is a team that needs a positive boost heading into next season, it is New York as it arguably was the biggest disappointment this season right up there with Pittsburgh. The

With the Saints losing on Sunday, this game suddenly becomes a lot bigger for the Vikings. We knew this line was going to rise come Monday but now we are going to see even more action on Minnesota and that means a big fade the public play here. With everything at stake for the Vikings and nothing riding for Chicago, as of Monday morning, 75 percent of the over 61,000 wagers have been placed on the Vikings. The public won last night with the Cowboys and will be hard-pressed to back it up again. Minnesota is a 4-3 on the road this season but two of those wins came in dome stadiums similar to its own and three of those wins have come against teams a combined 6-36 and that is far from impressive. A road win at Green Bay was the other but that is when Green Bay was struggling and that would be a different game if played today. The last two road games were played in very similar settings. The Vikings faced Arizona three weeks ago in a Sunday night game and Minnesota was beat in all facets in that game. Last week, it was another Sunday night game, this one at a much weaker Carolina team and the results were the same as the Vikings were outgained by 160 yards and were thumped by the Panthers. The thinking by many here is that the Vikings bounce back against another weak opponent but it will not be that easy. The thinking is that the Bears have packed it in for the season and I am on board with that. Partially. Chicago did not show up at Baltimore last week but that was a big it was far from interested in. At home against a division rival it is a different story. The last home game against Green Bay saw great effort and the other big home game before that, against the Eagles, was similar. This is it for the Bears as they want to play spoiler against their hated rivals and we will see the effort tonight. 9* Chicago Bears

This total is interesting as just a month ago when these two squared off, the total was set at 47. Now the total is six points less and we have to figure out if that move is justified. The big trends here are both teams have been involved in low scoring games of late. The Vikings have played six straight unders while the Bears have also gone under in six straight games and that is definitely factored into this number. The Minnesota offense, once one of the most explosive in the NFL, has been struggling at times and has been inconsistent. The Chicago defense is hammered with injuries and I see Minnesota getting back into its form, at least enough to put up enough points along with Chicago to push this one over. The Vikings need Adrian Peterson to return to form as he hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 10, and since has averaged only 3.1 ypc. The Bears are the cure and we should see Peterson have a solid game with plenty of big plays. Minnesota's struggling defense has quickly and quietly become an issue. Minnesota ranks eighth defensively; fourth against the rush and 16th against the pass. But those numbers have slipped in losses at Carolina and Arizona in the past three weeks. The Bears are considered the perfect remedy and that is no doubt taken into consideration in this total but I think the Bears can have some success on offense in its home stadium. The Vikings fall into a great totals situation as well. Play the

**9** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *62% RUN* This is the classic over-reaction/under-reaction scenario. Dallas is coming off a massive win against the Saints while the Redskins looked horrible on Monday night football. Just those two games alone has sent this line through the roof. Dallas goes from a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite while the Redskins go from a three-point home underdog to a touchdown home underdog against roughly the same caliber team. This is what we call excellent line value and it makes it even more so in a rivalry game. Washington knows that it embarrassed everything about the organization against the Giants and what better way to make up for it than once again on national television against its most hated rival. The loss against the Giants was the Redskins first bad game in a long time and I don

This is a very tough spot for the Eagles. They clinched a playoff berth last week with their win over the 49ers, their fifth straight and they have a massive game on deck next week against the Cowboys with some revenge added to the mix. I do think the Eagles right now are the team to beat in the NFC but this is a tough number to be putting down especially against a team that is all of sudden in desperation mode. Even though this one is at home, Philadelphia has not fared well against the AFC, losing to both the Raiders and the Chargers and while it is 9-2 against NFC foes, it is 1-2 against the AFC. If the season ended today, the Broncos would be in the playoffs but unfortunately, the season still has two games remaining. Denver has dropped six of eight, allowing the Chargers to come back from a 3.5-game deficit and clinch their fourth straight division crown. Denver can win out and claim a playoff spot no matter what any other team does and with the season finale at home against Kansas City, a win here and that goal is likely met. The Broncos are coming off a tough home loss against Oakland last week and the redzone offense was to blame as they have to settle for four field goals. The good news here is that the Eagles are ranked in the bottom third of the league in redzone defense, allowing a touchdown percentage of 55.8 percent. The team is still confident and that is the most important part at this stage of the season. I love the fact that the Broncos are two games better than San Francisco yet are getting the same amount of points the 49ers received last week. Play against teams after three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, play on underdogs or pickems with a winning record below .600 that are coming off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 8* Denver Broncos

The Lions are 0-7 on the road and the linesmakers are telling us that they will be 0-8 after this Sunday as they are not being given a shot here. Even more surprising to me is that the line continues to go up. Detroit is a risky play no doubt about it but in its last road game in Baltimore, a playoff team, it was getting right around the same amount and it would not be surprising to see this number hit two touchdowns by gametime but that won

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR The thinking here is going to be the fact that New Orleans is going to bounce back following its first loss of the season while Tampa Bay is in for a big letdown following its win in Seattle last week. The public is gong with this logic as the majority of early bets are on the Saints even though early sharp money brought this number down from -15 and-16 to its current line of -14 in most places on Saturday morning. The Saints loss on Saturday looked as though this game would become more important but with Minnesota losing Sunday night, the Saints are still two games up for home field advantage through the playoffs so this game has taken a lesser priority. As for the Buccaneers, they showed they have not given up this season and it will be even more ready in this divisional game. Tampa Bay will go as far as rookie quarterback Josh Freeman takes it. He has had four very good games, with a passer rating of 75.9 or better and three really bad games with a passer rating of 36.5 or worse. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in those good games and 0-3 ATS in those bad games so it is obvious what we are looking for here. Freeman has faced the Saints already once this season, one of the bad games, and that is a huge edge for him getting a look a second time. The results will be much better this time around especially with the New Orleans injury list being a mile long including numerous defensive players. Tampa Bay falls into two very solid situations. Play against divisional home favorites of 10.5 or more points that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. Also, play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after one or more consecutive wins against the spread in the second half of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jacksonville disappointed a lot of people last Thursday as it went toe-to-toe with Indianapolis but lost by four points and missed the cover by a point. This was the second straight four-point loss for the Jaguars who also lost against Miami the previous week as the playoff chances are starting to dwindle. The good news is that Tennessee lost on Friday so that is one less team that Jacksonville needs to worry about. A 9-7 finish guarantees nothing but with the season finale at Cleveland next week, this has turned into a must win game for the Jaguars. It looked like New England was finally making strides and was poised to run away with the AFC East but the Patriots have actually gone the other way. That loss against the Colts has not gone away. They bounced back with a relatively easy win over the Jets but that was handed over to them by Mark Sanchez. After that it was two straight losses against the Saints, who dominated, and the Dolphins, who came back from a two-touchdown deficit. The Patriots have won two straight games but neither has been impressive and the swagger that this team used to have can no longer be seen. New England has nothing to play for even though the division isn

**9** NFL CHRISTMAS BEATDOWN **35-21 RUN** This is a perfect example of a reverse line movement. As of Thursday morning, 75 percent of the over 20,000 wagers have been placed on the Chargers yet we have seen the line move from Tennessee -2.5 to Tennessee -3. A lot of books opened this number at -3 and it hasn

**10** NFL #1 TOTAL OF 2009 **35-20 RUN** We get some excellent value in this total based on recent results and series history. The Giants played one of the more entertaining games last week against he Eagles as the game saw 83 points scored, the most points ever scored in the 150 games played between the two rivals. That has raised this number more than it should be. The Redskins are coming of another

Minnesota is a solid 4-2 on the road this season but two of those wins came in dome stadiums similar to its own and three of those wins have come against teams a combined 5-34 and that is far from impressive. A road win at Green Bay was the other but that is when Green Bay was struggling and that would be a different game if played today. The last road game was played at Arizona in a similar setting on Sunday night and Minnesota was beat in all facets in that game. The Panthers are not close to the Cardinals but that could make this spot even worse for Minnesota who could get caught napping in a possible lookahead to the rival Bears next week. Carolina played with good effort last week in New England and even though the playoffs are officially out of reach, the Panthers in good shape to keep this one close. The only thing left for Carolina is to play spoiler and it hopes to do so by shortening this game with a heavy does of the running game. The Panthers are fourth in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 149.9 ypg and their 4.8 ypc is third in the league. The Viking rushing defense is once again up near the top of the league but they have shown vulnerabilities to solid running backs, most recently last week against Cedric Benson who rushed for 96 yards on 16 carries (6.0 ypc). Matt Moore will be making his third start on the season at quarterback and while the offense has been far from explosive, he has put up ratings of 73.1 and 82.2 so he has not been bad at all and will continue to get better with the more reps and experience he gets. Brett Favre is having a spectacular season as everyone is fully aware of but the last couple weeks have been anything but solid. He has posted two of his three worst performances of the season as far as passer rating and his three combined interceptions are the same amount he had through his first 11 games. It didn't help that Favre was without rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin last week and he will likely again be inactive on Sunday due to recurring migraine headaches. Carolina is sixth in the NFL in passing defense and its 6.6 ypa allowed is good for a tie for seventh. The Panthers can take some comfort in knowing they're on a bit of a roll when it comes to pass defense, with 11 turnovers created the past three games, including seven interceptions. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of more than a touchdown but less than two touchdowns while the Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a contest where they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record and they fall into a great league-wide situation based on low scoring games showing the defense has played a significant role. Play on home underdogs or pickems with a losing record after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -1.6 ppg. 8* Carolina Panthers

**10** NFL GAME OF THE YEAR ***14-3 RUN*** The Packers have won five straight games and are in the driver

Seattle got its doors blown off last week in Houston and this will make the third time this season that the Seahawks return home following a blowout loss on the road. The first resulted in a 410 win against Jacksonville following a loss in Indianapolis and the second resulted in a 32-20 win over Detroit after a loss in Dallas. They also lost a game in San Francisco and came home and lost against the Bears but that one cannot be counted due to quarterback Matt Hasselbeck being out. After getting pounded last week, Seattle can now tee off on the once again hapless Buccaneers. This is still one of the best home venues in football and it doesn

I was on the Bengals last week in Minnesota and they did not play as bad as the final score indicated. More on that later. I liked the Bengals to bounce back this week before the horrific and unfortunate death of wide receiver Chris Henry. Henry had his share of problems in the past but he seemed to have turned his life around the last couple seasons which makes this even that much more unfortunate. The Bengals will be grieving over this for the rest of the season and you will hear arguments about how they are going to lose focus because of this but I think this will make the team even stronger, especially this game, as they will go out to try and win for their fallen teammate. Cincinnati

**9** NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH *82% RUN* When talking about the public, it does need to be clarified. I could care less about what side the public is on, it can be one percent or it can be 100 percent. The reason for talking about the public so much has to do with line value. Linesmakers take that into consideration the most when making these lines as to avoid heavy action on one side. This line could be Arizona -7 and we could see over 80 percent of the action on the Cardinals. The fact that the current line sits at -12.5 and we still have 85 percent of the action on the Cardinals tells us that no matter how big the line is, there is going to be one-sided action. Therefore the bigger line only helps us even more. Therefore, I think we can take a shot in the dark and guess where the public perception lies in this game. This is the classic overreaction as there is no way that Arizona can play another bad game like the one it played on Monday night. Well, it definitely can. Even though the Cardinals lead in the NFC West is down to two games, it is going to be tough to get up here especially knowing that the final two games of the season are at home. Arizona started the season 5-0 on the road but has dropped its last two roadies and while a win here is more than a possibility, a blowout win is not going to be easy. Seeing the Lions get slaughtered in Baltimore last week also has the public perception leaning toward an Arizona blowout. Detroit looked like a JV football team against the Ravens and it was not exactly optimal conditions to be playing in to it credit plus it was playing with Dante Culpepper behind Center. Now that Matthew Stafford has had two and half weeks to rest, he will be back and we will see a different Lions team on the field this Sunday. Detroit is a respectable 2-4 at home with two of those losses coming by eight points or less and another coming by 14 points to the Vikings. Yes the Cardinals did beat the Vikings but that is meaningless in this case. Detroit has scored 12, 13 and 3 points in its last three games but that is to out benefit here as the Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 14 points or fewer in three straight games. Also, it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after getting outgained by 200 or more yards in its previous game. The Lions also fall into numbers league-wide contrarian situations including play on home teams with a winning percentage of less than .250 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, and now playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that have been outgained by 100 or more ypg on the season, after being outgained by 75 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-8 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. Both of these go back a long time, especially the second one so they have stood up over time at a highly successful rate. 9* Detroit Lions

**9** NFL SATURDAY PRIMETIME **63.8% RUN** Everywhere you read, it is all about the December Dallas collapse. While the Cowboys have struggled in this month, I don

**10** NFL #1 THURSDAY DECEMBER PLAY *82%* It took a while for this line to come out but it is about right where I thought it would be. The undefeated Colts come into Jacksonville for a huge Thursday night game with a lot on the line for both sides. However, the stakes are much higher for the home team so we will grab the points here which may not even come into play. Indianapolis is going for a perfect record this season but it is not of the highest priority right now. Obviously the Colts was to keep winning and keep the positive momentum rolling but most important right now is the health of the team and quite frankly, it is not very healthy. Head coach Jim Caldwell said that all healthy starters will start the game and with a massive injury list, that may not be too many. He did not say how long they would be playing however. I am banking on then playing the entire game and if they do not, it is even better for us. The Colts have home field advantage wrapped up so there is no reason to take too many risks here. The Jaguars are coming off a home loss against Miami on Sunday and that put a big hit on their playoff position in the AFC. They are now tied with four other teams for the final Wild Card spot with three other teams just a game back. Jacksonville could have put a lot of pressure on the pack with a win over the Dolphins but it was not meant to be so this game becomes major priority. The Jaguars are 5-2 at home so this is the final home game of the season and in primetime makes it even bigger. They have to go to New England next week so a loss here means they could very well head into the season finale with a 7-8 record and possibly out of the playoff picture. For the first time this season the Jaguars have sold enough tickets to a contest to have their television blackout lifted. Former Colts coach Tony Dungy said he expects to see "a ton" of backup quarterback Curtis Painter in place of Peyton Manning, and team President Bill Polian has indicated perfection is not a priority. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both of whom have been banged up over the last month, figure to see limited minutes while others like tight end Dallas Clark, who are subject to taking a physical pounding because of the positions they play, are also likely to be limited. Jacksonville has a history of competing well with the Colts, as the last four games in the series have been decided by a total of only 14 points. Prior to that, late in the 2006 season, the Jaguars defeated the Colts 44-17 so this team definitely presents some matchup problems. The Jaguars come in with the much better rushing game and they are going to no doubt use it heavily here. Jacksonville falls into a solid situation as well. Play on home underdogs with a winning record on the season below .600 that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +5.1 ppg. 10* Jacksonville Jaguars

**9** NFL MONDAY PRIMETIME **5-1 MNF RUN** This is a great situation for the 49ers and a personal favorite. Arizona is coming off a Sunday night win over the Vikings last week for the whole public to see. When a team looks as good as it did in the national spotlight and is once again on national television the following week, this is when we want to go against. The main reason is line value as in this case the Cardinals went from a three-point home underdog to a three-point road favorite and that type of line shift is not uncommon when it comes to a case like this. The public will no doubt be riding the hot team it saw last week so the linesmakers need to make the adjustment the following week which they did and it is once again an overadjustment. As of Sunday early afternoon, three-fourths of betting action is on the Cardinals and that has made the line go up even more and that certainly is more than fine. The 49ers season has been a big disappointment as they came in with a lot of expectations. A loss in Minnesota on the final play of the game was only the first of the season but that tough defeat really sent San Francisco into a tailspin. The 49ers are 3-7 in those last 10 games but only one of those losses has been by more than a touchdown with four coming by four points or fewer. The defense is playing steady and the offense has been coming around, namely the play at quarterback. Alex Smith has been solid in the new spread offense as he has thrown for 769 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in his last three games. The 49ers, who opened with Shaun Hill as the starter, averaged 175.6 passing ypg in their first nine games so it has been a huge improvement. On the other side, quarterback Kurt Warner has been on fire, Arizona needs just this win to clinch the division and it is playing with revenge. Those three things are all publicly out there and that is definitely putting additional action on the Cardinals. Those factors also play a part in setting the line so while signs point to one side, we are very comfortable in backing the other. San Francisco has played well at home going 4-2 straight up and ATS, and is now 6-2-1 ATS at home under Mike Singletary. It is also on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that are completing 64 percent or more of their passes in the second half of the season. San Francisco falls into a solid situation and it has to do with the severe line shift from last week. Play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 59-30 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. Going back that far, that is a very solid situation that has stood up over time. 9* San Francisco 49ers

**9** NFL PRIMETIME SNF **65.5% NFL RUN** The Giants lost the first meeting in Philadelphia before they even came out of the locker room and it was long gone after that as the Eagles piled up a 23-point win. The Giants were in desperation mode last week against the Cowboys and came through and they are once again in the same spot. They need to win to keep pace in the division and even though Dallas plays earlier in the day, it will have no barring on how New York goes about this one. A Cowboys loss and a Giants win puts the Giants in first place while a Dallas win over San Diego means the Giants need to win to remain a game back. If for nothing else, they need to win to keep pace in the Wild Card race. Last week we got a favorable line where New York was actually getting points at home in a divisional game. That win did not sway the linesmakers as they have put up another suspect line in a division game. New York should be favored by a field goal in a home divisional matchup but it is laying less than that meaning a win is a likely cover as well. After the Giants win, Philadelphia dropped two straight games against Dallas and San Diego. The Eagles have rebounded to win the last three games but they were unimpressive wins against non-playoff teams Chicago and Washington and last week it won in Atlanta with ease against a Falcons team that was playing without quarterback Matt Ryan. The only victory Philadelphia has this season that is against a potential playoff team is the Giants as it is 0-3 in the other three games it has played against teams that will likely be in the postseason. Overall, the Eagles have played the 28th ranked schedule while the Giants have played the 10th ranked schedule. The Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is ranked in the top ten that does not have a win against a fellow top ten team (0-2). The first meeting was about the big play for the Eagles as three of the touchdowns were of plays of 41 or more yards. In total, the Giants were outgained by only 35 total yards but they went just 50 percent on third down and 0-2 on fourth down with both of those attempts coming inside the Eagles 30-yard line. I expect the Giants to once again control the time of possession (they won the TOP in the first meeting by more than 11 minutes) and that will keep the offense of the Eagles off the field and less chance of those big plays. The Giants were on the other side of that TOP last week against Dallas but I don

I have been riding St. Louis off and on in the second half of the season and the Rams have been playing very competitive football. They have outgained three of their last five opponents and they are 4-1 against the number in those games. They were outyarded by the Bears last week but only by 15 yards and their redzone lack of success is what did them in even though they still came through with the cover. The defense, which was horrific in the beginning of the season, has improved quite a bit and that is what has been carrying the successful run. After allowing 30.1 ppg through the first seven games, St. Louis has allowed only 20.6 ppg over the last five games and Tennessee does not have an offense that is going to overpower the Rams. The Tennessee season officially came to an end last week even though the Titans are not mathematically eliminated. After starting the season 0-6, they rattled off five straight wins and there was some serious talk about closing the season on a 10-game winning streak as the schedule set up very well for it. Even though the Titans outgained Indianapolis last week, they lost by 10 points and that pretty much ended any chance of a postseason berth. It was a great run but that defeat no doubt knocked the wind out of their sails. Now Tennessee must regroup and play a team that is 1-11 on the season and that just isn

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR We know where this line is going. It has opened anywhere from -3 to -4 depending on the book and after settling in, we are going to see any -3 numbers have large juice with them and those are eventually going to make their way back up to -3.5 and -4 and that will be direction this line should be taking based on the public action that will be coming in on Green Bay. Personally I think this is one that should be waited until being bet because the best numbers for Chicago will be coming later in the week. I would not be surprised to see this one hit -5 by gametime at a minimum. Chicago lost any shot of a playoff run with a Thursday night defeat at San Francisco. That put the Bears at 4-5 but it was the way the game was lost that sent them into a tailspin with two more losses after that including another tough loss against the Eagles the following game. They are coming off a win over St. Louis this past Sunday but it was unimpressive to say the least. The public wants nothing to do with this team right now and that suits me just fine as this is the biggest rival and the biggest home game every season so we are going to see a huge effort to knock the hated Packers from the Wild Card standings. This is the Bears Super Bowl plain and simple. Green Bay has looked great the last four games ever since that loss against Tampa Bay. The Packers are coming off a big Monday night win against Baltimore that the whole world got to see and this is exactly the time we want to go against them. They have actually been on national television the last two weeks including Thanksgiving so they have two big television wins that will keep the public backing coming in on their side. Green Bay has outgained five straight opponents and it has won the yardage battle in 10 of the last 11 games. One disadvantage came against Minnesota while the other came against Chicago in the season opener in Green Bay. I think Chicago can definitely do it again. The Packers had massive problems with their offensive line early in the season but they have since gotten things straightened out, have protected better and have been able to open running lanes for Ryan Grant. At the same time, the Bears have been unable to stop the run while their own offense has been having trouble. However, looking at raw yards is not the way to go as a lot of that has to do with the game situations both teams have been in and when are talking winning streaks for the Packers and losing streaks for Chicago, the overall numbers will definitely be skewed. Over the last three games, Green Bay is averaging 3.9 ypc while the defense is allowing 3.9 ypg. For the Bears, they are averaging 4.2 ypc while allowing 4.8 ypc and that difference is pretty miniscule. Comparing Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler shows a complete mismatch but breaking it down some shows it isn

Don

This line is baffling to me. Cincinnati is 9-3 on the season which is just a game worse than the Vikings yet it is catching close to a touchdown. The Bengals are coming off three straight lethargic games and that may have a lot to do with where this number came out at. They lost in Oakland and then played back-to-back home games against Cleveland and Detroit who are a combined 3-21, and walked away with less than impressive wins. The goal was to win those games and nothing more as Cincinnati needed to stay healthy and possibly keep the rest of the schedule guessing for the stretch run. The Bengals are aiming for home field advantage and with three of the final four games on the road, this one becomes extremely important. The Vikings finally lost and they were exposed pretty good in Arizona last Sunday night. That was the first game in over a month that Minnesota actually played a good team so the Bengals are not in the same boat. Minnesota has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season behind the Packers and it has played only two games against teams within the top ten in the league. The win came against Baltimore while the loss came last week against the Cardinals. A missed field goal by the Ravens is the reason that record is not 0-2. Eight of the Vikings' victories have come against teams that are .500 or worse: Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis, Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle and Chicago. Two wins over Green Bay account for the other two wins and if the Vikings played Green Bay now, those results would likely be different. The Bengals have the best defense in the NFL as far as points allowed with 15.6 per game and their 293.3 ypg allowed is fourth best. Minnesota is eighth in the NFL in total defense and 10th in scoring defense so it is below the Bengals in both categories but still, with two great defenses, points become a premium in such games. The Vikings defense took a huge hit last week with the loss of linebacker E.J. Henderson. Cornerback Antoine Winfield is still out while cornerback Cedric Griffin, the team leader in interceptions, and safety Tyrell Johnson are both questionable. On the other side, running back Adrian Peterson, who did not practice Wednesday because of foot and ankle issues, had the second-worst rushing game of his career last Sunday. He now faces the league

**9** NFL THURSDAY PRIMETIME **31-13 RUN** Pittsburgh is going to be a square play and a very popular play but it is the only side that can be taken here. This is an interesting line. Last week we saw San Diego go into Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite and now we have a truly desperate Pittsburgh team that has won all 10 meetings with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center in this series laying only 10 points. Is San Diego roughly four points better than the Steelers? According to my power rankings, the Chargers are actually five points better than the Steelers right now on a neutral field. However, even though that is the case, that is not a fair comparison since the Chargers went into Cleveland playing great while the Steelers are riding a four-game losing skid so the situations are completely different. The weather is affecting the total but the line is probably not going to move because of it since both teams are affected the same. The weather is going to be a big factor. There is snow and wind in the forecast and while the snow is not that big of a deal, the wind is and that heavily favors the Steelers. Throwing the ball in the wind is an adventure and when you cannot do it to begin with, it is even more of a challenge. Cleveland is 31st in the NFL in passing offense as it is averaging only 143.5 ypg and its 5.0 ypa is easily the worst in the entire league. The problem for Pittsburgh lately has been in the secondary and the absence of Troy Polamalu has certainly not helped matters. The Steelers are 17th in passing defense, allowing 219.7 ypg and after facing the worst passing offense in the league last week, there are going to be significant differences this week. Even if the weather was going to be perfect, Cleveland would struggle as it did in the first meeting when it threw for just 122 yards. Now that the forecast calls for 22 degrees, snow showers and 25 m.p.h. winds, we won

**9** NFL #1 DECEMBER REPORT **30-13 RUN** Ever since losing to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been money as they have won three straight games to move right back into the playoff race in the NFC. This run includes a Thanksgiving shellacking against the Lions making this a very favorable spot for Green Bay considering the extra time to rest from that Thursday game. The Lions game also showed Green Bay with a 150-total yard advantage which makes it eight games out of the last nine that the Packers have won the yardage battle. They are 6-3 over that stretch with two losses coming against the division leading Vikings. While Green Bay is in a favorable spot, the Ravens are not. Baltimore is not playing on a short week but it is the next closest thing after playing an overtime game on Sunday night against the Steelers. That resulted in a hard-fought win at home and that does not bode well here. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Ravens are 3-5 in their last eight games and breaking down the schedule shows how average it has been. Two of the wins came against Cleveland while another came against Kansas City and in the last six games, the team that won the yardage battle has won the game and that no doubt favors the Packers as mentioned earlier. The Packers offensive line was a huge concern for most of the first half of the season but the unit has responded very well of late. We have seen more three- and five-step drops, a lot of check downs and quick passes, and throws going to backs and tight ends, and that has limited the amount of sacks quarterback Aaron Rodgers has taken. Baltimore, long known for bringing pressure, has just 21 sacks this season which is tied for 26th in the NFL. That has definitely hurt the passing defense and it has shown against quality quarterbacks. The Packers will need to utilize running back Ryan Grant who is running much better now than in the beginning of the season. With a good running game, Rodgers won't take as many hits, and if they can force the Ravens into some run blitzes, it creates one-on-one matchups and that is where the Ravens struggle the most. Last week Pittsburgh sacked quarterback Joe Flacco five times, hit him seven times and had eight tackles for loss. That showed as Flacco hurt his ankle once again and it is still unclear how bad it is. He is far from 100 percent and he now faces a defense that is second in the NFL, allowing just 281.5 ypg. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, play on non-division home teams that are favored by five points or fewer or pickems that are playing on Monday night and coming off a road win. This situation is 20-7 ATS (74.1 percent). Also, play on favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival that playing on Monday night. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent). Green Bay keeps rolling with another big win to stay atop the Wild Card standings. 9* Green Bay Packers

**9** NFL PRIMETIME SNF **63.5% NFL RUN** This is a horrible spot for Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off a three-game homestand where they swept it including the last game against division rival Chicago. Prior to this homestand was the bye week for Minnesota so it has been home since returning home on November 1st following its game at Green Bay. That is a long time for no travel and now it heads west to play a team that is out to prove something. Minnesota is a solid 4-1 on the road this season but two of those wins came in dome stadiums similar to its own and three of those wins have come against teams a combined 4-29 and that is far from impressive. A road win at Green Bay was the other but that is when Green Bay was struggling and that would be a different game if played today. Arizona was outgained pretty good in Tennessee last Sunday but it had the lead late and almost moved to 6-0 away from home but it allowed the Titans to drive 99 yards on their possession and win the game on the final play of the contest. It was a tough loss for the Cardinals but one they can learn from and bring extra motivation to this huge home game. This is pretty close to a must win for Arizona. It goes to San Francisco next week so a loss here and then a loss on the road to the 49ers means San Francisco could have control of the division barring its own outcome on Sunday. This is a big game for the Cardinals because there is a lot on the line that isn

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR The Giants are a desperate team right now. A loss against the Cowboys and their season is all but done but a win puts them right back in the division hunt. Which Giants team shows up? Playing at home certainly helps where it is 3-2 on the season and could be 5-0 as both home losses came when they actually outgained the opponent. New York was favored by five points over San Diego two home games back and now it is getting two points (the median) against the Cowboys. The linesmakers are saying the Cowboys are a touchdown better now than San Diego was three weeks ago and even though the Chargers line would be different now, that is still a huge variance at the same venue. In my opinion, the Giants should be favored by a field goal and my power rankings show that they should be favored by two points. Because they are the underdog, the Giants fall into one of the best NFL systems there is which is explained later. Dallas scored seven points in two straight games against the Packers and Redskins and things were looking bleak. The good news is that Thanksgiving was coming and Oakland was making a visit which should have meant blowout city. The Cowboys did cover against the Raiders but they scored only 24 points against a defense ranked 29th in the NFL. I will go out on a limb and say that the Dallas offense is still struggling and will not get many arguments. The Cowboys are 6-1 in their last seven games but only three of those wins were comfortable and those came against the aforementioned Raiders, the Seahawks and the Falcons. All of those games came at home. After an opening road win in Tampa Bay by 13 points, Dallas is just 2-2 in its last four games on the road with the two wins coming by four points against the Eagles and the other in overtime against the Chiefs. Dallas has defeated only two teams that currently have winning records and its schedule is ranked 30th in the NFL. The combined record of those losing teams is 18-48 with none having more than four wins. The Giants defense is getting a lot of flack and some of it is deserved but their defense is still ranked a solid fourth in the NFL, allowing 290.5 ypg. The rushing defense allowed 251 yards in that first meeting and that was a complete aberration. On the season, the Giants are allowing an average of 106.9 ypg so taking that first effort out knocks that average down to 92.5 ypg which is more in line of the overall picture. Over the last three games, New York is allowing only 87.3 ypg on 3.1 ypc and at home it is allowing only 68.2 ypg on 3.0 ypc. The story early in the week was the rumor that Eli Manning was not going to play due to a new foot injury but that

It truly is amazing what can happen to a team when one simple change is made. The Titans started the season 0-6 and were left for dead but Vince Young replaces Kerry Collins at quarterback and Tennessee has gone on to win its last five games and suddenly reappear in the playoff race. It is most likely that the Titans will have to win out to have a shot but that is more than possible as the schedule sets up great with this being the final road test of the season. The next three games are at home so the Titans are well aware of the good situation they are in. Tennessee has outgained four of its last five opponents including torching the Cardinals last week with a 532-292 yardage edge. The Titans lost the first meeting against the Colts but they have held their own in this series. Indianapolis remained undefeated with a big come-from-behind win over Houston last week and it was the fifth straight game that the Colts have flirted with getting that first loss of the season. Despite having no losses, this has been nothing special of late as it has been outgained in three of its last four games and has now been outrushed in five straight contests. That does not bode well for this week playing against the best running back in the NFL and the second best running team in the league. The Titans were held to 90 yards on 21 carries (4.3 ypc) in that first meeting while Chris Johnson has only 34 yards on nine carries (3.8 ypc) and that was his worst game of the season. Since then, he has gained 128 or more yards in six straight games and he will make up for that first effort here. The Colts have improved on run defense over the past few years but can still struggle when faced with a strong ground game. On the other side, getting to Peyton Manning is a must and that is done with blitzing, something Titans defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil has been doing more of as of late. Tennessee falls into a great revenge situation. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a home loss against opponent and with a losing record on the season but with a winning percentage greater than .400. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -0.3 ppg. 9* Tennessee Titans