Sports Picks & Predictions

Everybody saw New Orleans on Monday night as it easily took out New England as Drew Brees was machine-like. Now it is off to Washington in what amounts to a huge letdown game for the Saints. We saw this the last time when New Orleans won a big spotlight game on Monday night against Atlanta and it came back the following Sunday and laid an egg against Carolina despite the final margin of 10 points over the Panthers. That was at home and this one is on the road off the carpet yet the Saints are pushing double-digits and the public is living it still. As of Friday morning, 78 percent of the 17,000 wagers have been put on the road team. Washington has certainly had its run of bad breaks and close calls but there is no quit in this team. The Redskins lost its second straight game on the road by less than a field goal and it has been that story all season. Washington has lost six games by a possession or less and its average scoring margin on the season is only -3.1 ppg yet it is getting a huge amount of points in its return home. While this game may mean little coming off two straight division games, I think it is just the opposite as the Redskins want nothing more than to play spoiler and end the Saints perfect season. Washington has outgained eight of its last 10 opponents so it is obviously doing something right, just not catching the breaks. The Redskins offense has been more productive since Sherm Lewis came back and started working with the unit. The key for Washington is pretty simple and that is run the ball which shortens the game and keeps the Saints offense off the field. New Orleans is allowing 4.6 ypc which is 26th in the NFL and it is 4.8 ypc over the last three games. The Redskins are beat up at running back but that is often the time when a team picks it up and the opposition sits back a little bit thinking the challenge won

I find it rather strange that the Bears have lost six of their last seven games, are out of the playoff race and are laying this many points to a team that has been getting better as the season progresses. And the public is buying into it. Chicago lost its fourth straight game last week at Minnesota and this team has tossed in for the season especially after that Vikings game. The Bears have defeated the teams it has supposed to (Detroit, Cleveland and Seattle) but those games were when the playoffs were a possibility and while the Rams fit into that grouping, this is just bad timing. With rival Green Bay on deck, this is a big divisional sandwich. The Rams have been improving as they have outgained three of their last four opponents after getting outgained in six of their first seven games. Granted the last three games have been at home and that will make for a tough travel situation but St. Louis is playing with confidence and it goes into this game knowing it can win. Quarterback Kyle Boller played ok last week in his first action in five weeks and he should be better with that game under his belt. The Rams will be turning to Steven Jackson once again who is second in the NFL with 1,120 rushing yards and he will face a Bears defense that has been outrushed in three of their last four games. The Bears will be without linebacker Lance Briggs who sprained his knee last week against the Vikings. That severely hurts an already floundering defense. While the Jay Cutler struggles gets the attention, it is the defense that has been struggling the most. Football Outsiders ranks the Bears 21st in defensive efficiency this season, a perfectly mediocre balance of 22nd in pass defense and 21st in rush defense. Of the teams below them, only Atlanta and Jacksonville have shots at the playoffs, and only barely. The Bears are ranked 30th in third down defensive efficiency largely because of an inconsistent pass rush. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a losing record while the Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Rams fall into a solid passing situation. Play on road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.3 and 5.9 ypa going up against a team that is allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa after allowing 4.5 or less ypa last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 198 with the average point differential being just -1.8 ppg. 7* St. Louis Rams

**8** NFL THURSDAY PRIMETIME **25-12 RUN** I thought the Jets were as good as dead entering last week but they won over Carolina at home and no other team that was sitting at 6-4 was able to gain any more ground. So here the Jets are only a game behind Jacksonville, Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card spot. They are tied with three other teams at 5-6 so it won

**9** NFL ESPN PRIMETIME **24-11 NFL RUN** The money is coming in on New England in this game which has dropped the line from -3 to -1.5 in most places on Sunday night. I thought this line would hold firm all the way through but we get a good amount of value on the Saints. I liked New Orleans to begin with and like it even more at anything less than a field goal but it should not matter as I expect a comfortable win here. The last time we saw the Saints in this spot, they won over the Falcons but lost the cover because of a late fumble that eventually turned into Atlanta points. The place was electric then and you can only imagine what it is going to be like now that New England is in town. As we all know, the Saints are the last undefeated team in the NFC and this late in the season, with that comes pressure. Pressure to stay undefeated and keep winning is extremely difficult but New Orleans has the makeup that it is not affecting the team at all. The Saints have hit a few bumps along the way with three straight non-covers but easily took care of Tampa Bay last week which avoided a lookahead and told us that it is one game at a time with the Saints and that is how to get through these pressure games. The Saints offense is putting up incredible numbers and the Patriots know all about that and they are moving the ball nearly as good now. This one comes down to the defense however and while you will see the Patriots putting up better statistic, that does not mean the defense is better and in this case, it is not. It may be a surprise to some but the Patriots are in the bottom third of the NFL in both red zone offense (21 touchdowns on 44 possessions) and defense (13 touchdowns given up in 20 possessions). It is the latter we are concerned about as New Orleans can take advantage as it is fourth in the NFL in redzone offense with a 65.3 percent touchdown ratio. New England only has 18 sacks this season while the Saints have allowed only 13, third fewest in the league so getting pressure on Drew Brees will not be happening. Defensively, the Saints are fifth in redzone defense, allowing just a 42.4 percent touchdown ratio. The defense is slowly getting healthy again and the return of Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle is huge. Blitzing Tom Brady can be risky at times because he has the ability to break apart defenses that way but with the cornerback situation being thin in New Orleans, this is the best way to slow him down. The Saints have 24 sacks on the season which is tied for 12th in the league so they can get to Brady. New Orleans comes in off a division win but is now playing a non-0division game and that is sometimes a problem for some because of the letdown factor. However, when it comes to Monday night, it is just the opposite. Play on favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. 9* New Orleans Saints

**9** NFL NBC TOTAL DOMINATOR **69% RUN** With the news of Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger breaking on Saturday that he will not play, this game was taken down and we are seeing a scattering of lines as of Sunday morning. This has been a very high scoring series of late which may surprise some but to others, they are just going to ride that history and with it being a nighttime primetime game, the action on the over will be even more consistent. Five of the last six meetings have gone over with the average score being 38.8 ppg. As you can see by that average even though the games have gone over, they have not totaled a lot of points so the value is still there despite another small number. The absence of Big Ben is obviously a huge blow to the Pittsburgh offense and making that worse is the fact that the decision was not made until Saturday. Roethlisberger took all of the snaps during practice this week and that obviously was a mistake as Dennis Dixon will be making his first ever start and he has not worked much with the first string offense this week as he only took snaps on Friday. The Steelers spent last week installing a game plan for Roethlisberger because they felt he would start. Dixon has thrown one pass in the NFL in his two seasons but has not taken a snap this year other than in the preseason. Tyler Palko, who practiced with the team for the first time Thursday, was signed from the practice squad yesterday and will serve as the number two quarterback, replacing injured backup Charlie Batch. All of this means one thing and that is we will see a heavy dose of the Steelers running game. We have heard it all season long how bad the Baltimore defense is this season and I don

**8** NFL NON-CONFERENCE GOW **22-10 RUN** The road runs finally comes to an end for Arizona. The Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season and that is impressive considering the fact that they are just 2-3 at home. I am far from sold with those road victories however as three have come against weak opposition (St. Louis, Chicago and Seattle), another against an average Jacksonville team and the last coming against the Giants despite getting outgained by 39 total yards. Not only has the road been fairly easy, it has been frequent of late. Arizona has travelled every week for the seven weeks as it has not has a back-to-back home game since October 11th when it played its second straight games at home with a bye week tossed in the middle. This marks the fifth road game in the last seven weeks for the Cardinals. After a 0-6 start, the Titans could only do one thing and that was to play spoiler. Now after four straight wins, Tennessee is actually thinking playoffs. The schedule is far from difficult with four of the final six games at home and the game at Indianapolis being the only game where it will be an underdog. A 9-7 record may not get it done but this team is doing anything but quitting. This will definitely be one of the bigger tests in this recent stretch but this team is playing with as much confidence as any team in the league and is being led by a confident quarterback in Vince Young. The offense is moving and scoring while the defense is holding and this team is looking more like the team that started the season 10-0 last season. The big factor here is at the line of scrimmage. Tennessee has been running the ball great while Arizona has not. Tennessee has been stopping the run and Arizona has not. Chris Johnson is turning into one of the most feared backs in the league and after seeing some option running last week, the Cardinals could be in for another long afternoon. The Titans have outrushed eight of 10 opponents this season and have been outrushed just once while pushing once as well. Tennessee is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of three points or less and it falls into a solid situation as well. Play on home favorites that are outrushing opponents by 40 or more ypg going up against an opponent that is between +30 and -30 ypg in rushing margin after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 82-44 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1983. Tennessee keeps it going while the Cardinals finally lose on the road. 8* Tennessee Titans

**10** NFL TOP DIVISIONAL PLAY *12-2 YTD* The Rams have been playing much better of late but this is not a good spot for them to be in. They have lost their last two home games by five and eight points and those came against the Saints and Cardinals respectively, two teams who lead their divisions and are a combined 17-3 on the season. St. Louis was obviously ready for both of those games but getting up and playing at a high level for a third straight week is going to be next to impossible even though this is another division game with a lot of revenge attached to it. Add to the fact that the Rams are completely banged up, including the loss of quarterback Marc Bulger for the season, and they are not going to have an easy time here. Seattle is having a disappointing season at 3-7 and the problem has been playing horrible on the road. The Seahawks are 0-5 away from home this season but to their credit, they have played a brutal schedule. They opened with San Francisco, a game that saw quarterback Matt Hasselbeck leave, and then the next four road games came against Indianapolis, Dallas, Arizona and Minnesota who are a combined 34-7 and all of whom lead their respective divisions. This is a big break for Seattle who is 0-5 against the NF

**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *22-10 RUN* The Eagles picked up a big win in Chicago last weekend and are now back home where they will look to make it two straight wins. Prior to the Bears game, Philadelphia lost in San Diego despite outgaining the Chargers by 131 total yards so it should have been a 2-0 roadtrip instead of the 1-1 split. With Dallas winning on Thursday, the Eagles are a game and a half back in the NFC East so this has turned into a must win game especially with two more road games on deck at the Falcons and at the Giants. Philadelphia won the first meeting against Washington on the road even though it was outgained. It took big plays from the offense and defense to get it done but the Eagles will be better off this time around. Washington gave Dallas everything it could last Sunday and the Redskins fell just short. They are now 1-5 over the last six games and they are very close to being much better but have been unable to win the close games. Washington is 0-5 on the road this season and while four of those losses have come by six points or fewer, this could be the biggest test of all as injuries continue to pile up. Two of the top defenders, Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall are both doubtful while running backs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are both out as well. Even worse even though it is not making as much news is that the offensive line is completely banged up and that is not good for a unit that was struggling to begin with. The Eagles have struggled against the better teams in the league, going 1-3 against the top 16 but they are 5-1 against the rest of the NFL. Washington is just 1-4 against the top 16 including 0-2 against the top 10 and even though this series has been tight over the last few years, the Redskins could be completely out of gas here. The Eagles are 12-4 ATS under head coach Andy Reid when playing against a team in the second half of the season that has won between 25 and 40 percent of its games only. Also, they are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite between 7.5 and 10 points. Washington meanwhile is just 4-13-4 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 15 or fewer points last time out. The Eagles keep pace in the division with an easy victory here. 9* Philadelphia Eagles

**9** NFL THANKSGIVING SPECIAL **NYG/DEN** The Giants somehow managed to blow a cover on Sunday as they let by two touchdowns with six minutes remaining and coughed it up, the final score coming on a Falcons touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining. New York took advantage of winning the coin toss as the offense moved down the field to set up the game winning field goal. It was a close call but the Giants escaped and snapped their four-game losing streak. The problem is now it much travel west on a short week to the thin air of Denver and if that wasn

**8** NFL THANKSGIVING SPECIAL **OAK/DAL** Seeing where the money is coming in for this game is a little surprising.

**10** NFL THU GAME OF THE YEAR *12-1 YTD* Detroit is 2-3 at home this season including a win this past Sunday against the Browns in dramatic fashion. That victory is huge for confidence, momentum and just an overall feeling this team has had in a long time. The Lions did have another home win over Washington earlier this season but they had to travel the following week whereas here they get to remain home and play their annual Thanksgiving Day game where they are known to be very competitive in the right spots and this is one of those spots. Last Thanksgiving, it was anything but. They were 0-11 and playing a Tennessee team that has just suffered its first loss of the season at home against the Jets after starting 10-0 so Detroit was in a situation that no team wanted to be in. Green Bay has now won two straight games and the public will be taking notice once again and we are looking at a complete different situation as opposed to two weeks ago. I was on the Packers at home against the Cowboys but we were able to buy them low as they were off two straight losses including one against Tampa Bay. Now we have the chance to sell high as they will be overpriced, especially knowing that they win the first meeting 26-0 in Green Bay back in October. With Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh on deck, we may not see a fully focused Packers team on Thursday. The situation of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is keeping this line off the board almost everywhere but Las Vegas has posted the Packers as nine-points favorites which is a little surprising considering that they were favored by only 14 points at home in the first meeting. I say

**9** NFL PRIMETIME ON ESPN **19-9-1 RUN** Tennessee is out for some payback on Monday night and it could not have come at a better time. The Titans, after starting the season 0-6, have won three straight games and this team has not given up on anything yet. In the first meeting this season, Tennessee lost at home by a field goal despite winning the yardage battle but this team is in a much better place this time around. They have not lost since Vince Young took over as quarterback and nothing against Kerry Collins, but they are playing loose and with confidence that was not present on the field before. After winning seven straight meetings, the Titans have lost two straight in this series by a combined four points. A win here puts Tennessee two games back in the Wild Card race and with a relatively easy schedule to end the year, it is not over yet. The Texans are in a position to make their first ever playoff appearance and a win here gets them back into a tie for the Wild Card. They are coming off a bye week following that difficult loss against Indianapolis and even though that game ended in defeat, the Texans had some solid momentum going and the week off probably came at the wrong time. Houston is 1-3 in its four games following an off week under head coach Gary Kubiak and it is going to be interesting to see how this team responds following that Colts loss as well as playing on the big stage. Quarterback Matt Schaub has made the greatest difference in leveling the Texans-Titans playing field as over those last two victories, he has thrown for 641 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He has the offense moving along great right now and he will have to get it done with his arm again as the Texans do not have a running game. The Titans have gotten much better in passing defense and even though the competition has had a lot to do with that, personnel changes have also been a factor and Tennessee should be better suited this time around. The defense needs to think pass first and get pressure on Schaub. Tennessee has allowed only seven sacks on the season while the rushing game is fifth in the NFL with 161.8 ypg but first with 5.3 ypc. That shows us that this is the best offensive line in football and the matchup does not bode well. Houston has only 13 sacks on the season which is 30th in the NFL and while the rushing defense has been solid, allowing 108.7 ypg which is seventh, the Texans are allowing 4.7 ypg which is tied for 28th in the NFL. That ypc average is a better indication of how the defense is really doing because they have only been run on 210 times which is the fourth fewest in the league. The revenge factor is big here even though it is on the road as the line value comes into play. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss as a home favorite with a losing record on the season. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* Tennessee Titans

**8** NFL PRIMETIME ON NBC ***13-6 RUN*** The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR I

Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 8* Oakland Raiders

**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **68% RUN** The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don

The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York

**9** NFL THURSDAY TOTALS DOMINATOR *67%!* We are seeing almost an instant replay of the game from last Thursday in terms of the total and the same reasoning will be used in what should be another low scoring game. The value Thursday is in the total as we have a number that is pretty high for two very average offenses. Both teams have been consistent on both sides of the ball with only a couple of aberrations on both offense and defense and with both Miami and Carolina in the same range on offense and defense, getting out of the norm is unlikely tonight. We catch a little added value as well based on the fact that both teams played in high scoring games last weekend. Miami and Tampa Bay combined for 48 points while Carolina and Atlanta combined for 47 points. Miami is averaging 319.6 ypg on offense which is 23rd in the NFL and that has come against defenses allowing an average of 332 ypg so that offensive output is even worse since it has faced some weak defenses. The Panthers are allowing 314.6 ypg which is good for 12th best in the NFL and that has come against offenses averaging 340 ypg so that defense has really stepped up and is playing better than that average indicates. On this side, it is a big advantage for the Panthers defense. It is even more so that the Dolphins will be a run first team as Chad Henne will not be able to exploit the great Carolina pass defense. The Panthers are allowing 186.4 ypg through the air against offenses averaging 225 ypg passing. On the other side, Carolina is averaging 331.2 ypg on offense which is 21st in the NFL but that comes against defenses that are allowing 347 ypg so the output is well below average just like that of the Dolphins. On defense, Miami is allowing 337 ypg which is 19th in the league and that may seem below average but the Dolphins have faced teams that are averaging 350 ypg so the defense has stepped up and is playing better than what the average shows and that again is similar to that of the Panthers. Looking at both teams and their statistical numbers show that both teams are less than average on offense and above average on defense and that is exactly what we are looking for here. The running game is going to be the center of attention on both sides and that will be the case even though Ronnie Brown is out for Miami and DeAngelo Williams is questionable for the Panthers. This is a must win game for both sides realistically. The Dolphins are two games behind Pittsburgh and San Diego, both 6-3 and currently the Wild Card participants, so it needs to keep winning to keep pace. In addition to that, they trail three teams that are 5-4 so Miami not only need to finish strong but also get some help along the way. Winning the division could be the only hope and it trails New England by two games and already has lost once to the Patriots. For Carolina, the picture is a little brighter. The Panthers trail New Orleans by five games in the NFC South so a division repeat is out. They trail Philadelphia, New York, Green Bay and Atlanta by just a game in the Wild Card race so there is still a shot at jumping back into the postseason. The loser of this game will have an uphill battle the rest of the way. All of this means neither team will be taking a lot of chances so they will be playing it tight on offense. Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme said that the Panthers want to control time of possession more against the Dolphins, which might lead them to try to slow down the offense. That basically says running down the clock. 9* Under Miami Dolphins/Carolina Panthers

**9** #1 DIVISONAL NOVEMBER BET *13-5 RUN* We are seeing the same type of line movement that we saw in the Saints/Rams game on Sunday. The Ravens are a huge divisional road favorite and the public is going along for the ride yet we are seeing the line going the other way in some places. With the amount of wagers on Baltimore (47,805 out of 57,969 as of Monday morning) this line should be going through the roof but yet it is stable and that is a caution flag that we see so many times. We saw the ugly home underdog win yesterday with St. Louis and we will see the ugly home underdog Browns win on Monday night. The Browns are coming off a bye week and that could only have helped matters. Cleveland is having a terrible season as it comes in at 1-7 on the season including a 0-3 record at home. The Browns lost opening week to Minnesota and then dropped their next game to the Bengals in overtime. The third home loss came against the Packers and it was a bad spot as Cleveland was coming off a big divisional game against the Steelers. Travel has been a big issue this season as the Browns are one of only a very few amount of teams in the NFL that has yet to play two consecutive home games so they have been on the go every week. This is their first week of the season where they have been grounded for two consecutive weeks. Statistically speaking, Baltimore has the advantages over the Browns in most categories which comes as no surprise. We are going to see Cleveland take some chances on offense and defense in this game and why not since it has nothing to lose. On offense, the Browns used the

**9** NFL SUNDAY PRIMETIME **87% ANGLES** This line opened at -3 and I thought the number would likely sit on that number the whole week but we have seen a lot of action come in on the Patriots and that has knocked the number down in some places and in my opinion we now have huge value on the Colts. As of Friday afternoon, there are still a lot of -3

**10** NFL NON-DIVISIONAL ROUT *10-1 YTD* Dallas is coming off a monster win last week at Philadelphia to take over first place in the NFC East and quiet a lot of the doubters that were once against on the Cowboys after a somewhat slow and inconsistent start. They are playing their best football of the season but to be honest, Philadelphia lost that last game more than Dallas actually won it. Dallas has been far from a dominant team on the road despite being 3-1 on the season. The Cowboys outgained Tampa Bay by just 12 total yards, were outgained by the Broncos in a loss, won in Kansas City in overtime and then defeated the Eagles by four points. That certainly is not impressive enough to me to put them in the role of a road favorite against a desperate Packers team. Green Bay is coming off a pretty humiliating loss in Tampa Bay last weekend and it was a game it obviously never should have lost based on the fact that it was against the winless Buccaneers but also because it dominated the field for the most part. Turnovers and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown did the Packers in despite the fact they outgained Tampa Bay 125 total yards. Green Bay is currently sitting at .500 at while the season is far from over, this has turned into an almost must win situation to avoid going 4-5 and falling far down in the Wild Card race. Many people are calling the Packers a huge disappointment but they are not playing that bad. Losses are losses and they cannot be discounted but Green Bay has outgained five of its last six opponents and the lone exception came at home against the Vikings where it was outgained by only four yards. The Packers have allowed 30 or more points in four games and allowed 17 points or fewer in the other four games. That is a huge disparity and it is obviously based on the teams they have played. Nevertheless, Green bay is fourth in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 282.9 ypg. The Packers have been solid both against the rush and the pass so there has not been a glaring weakness at all. They are fourth in the league in third downs, allowing just 34.3 percent conversions and that has been due to setting up a lot of third and long situations. Dallas has been clicking off offense

The Eagles were thought to have been in a good spot last Sunday night against the Cowboys but some suspect play calling cost them late and they could not get enough offense going to take care of Dallas. The absence of running back Brian Westbrook was huge and he went into the latter part of the week as likely playing but then was inactive after some late consultations. He is going to be back this week and the offense will benefit from it. Philadelphia was flying high with two straight wins before the Dallas game and for some reason when this team gets on a run, it falls apart. Look at the Raiders game this season as proof of that and it has been the case for years. At the same time when it looks like this team is down, the Eagles step up and make everyone believers again. The first trip to the west coast was not good as it lost to Oakland as mentioned but that was a horrendous spot for the Eagles. This one is completely different. Head coach Andy Reid is 9-4 ATS on the west coast so that Raiders game is a complete aberration. The Chargers were a Giants holding penalty away from losing last week in New York. The Giants had a first-and-goal at the four-yard line but a holding penalty knocked them back and they were forced to kick a field goal. That allowed San Diego, down only six points, to move down the field in the final two minutes and score the winning touchdown. That can provide a spark no doubt but it can also spell a letdown and I don

There is nothing like winning ugly in the NFL and it happened twice last week with the Buccaneers and Chiefs and this week

I have ridden Carolina quite a bit this season and it has been a roller coaster of a ride. The Panthers started the season 0-4 ATS but have covered three of the last four including each of the last two weeks. That being said, the value is now gone. They are catching points at home in a division game which is always a great proposition but right now it is under a field goal and that actually turns the value in the other direction. This is another spot where the pubic is all over the road team but the line has actually come down. I would normally look hard at the home team but there are too many things going against Carolina here that have nothing to do with the line movement that won

**9** NFL #1 TOTAL OF THE MONTH **5-1 LW** The value tonight is in the total as we have a number that is pretty high for two very average offenses. Both teams have been consistent on both sides of the ball with only a couple of aberrations on both offense and defense and with both Chicago and San Francisco in the same range on offense and defense, getting out of the norm is unlikely tonight. We catch a little added value as well based on the fact that both teams played in high scoring games last weekend. Chicago and Arizona combined for 62 points while San Francisco and Tennessee combined for 61 points. San Francisco is averaging only 285.6 ypg on offense which is 27th in the NFL and making that even worse is the fact that it has come against teams allowing 346 ypg. That average on defense is 23rd in the NFL if it was put into the current rankings so the 49ers have certainly not been able to move the ball against inferior defenses. As a matter of fact they have played only stop units ranked in the top half of the league. San Francisco is averaging 21.8 ppg but games against 28th ranked St. Louis and 31st ranked Tennessee have helped bolster that average. Those were their two highest offensive outputs and take away the 35 and 27 points scored respectively in those games and the average drops to 18.6 ppg in the other six games. As far as Chicago, it has allowed 41 and 45 points in two of its last three games but Arizona and Cincinnati are both in the top half of the league in offense. The Bears average points allowed drops from 23.9 ppg to 17.5 ppg. The 49ers rely on the running game as they have the fourth most rushes in the NFL and we will no doubt see that again tonight against an average Bears rushing defense. Chicago has been better on offense this season but it is nothing special as the Bears are ranked 18th in total offense with 332.4 ypg. This has come against defenses yielding an average of 339 ypg so it has been slightly below average although nothing real significant. The Bears are averaging 22.5 ppg on offense but this needs to be broken down as well. They have faced Cleveland and Detroit, who are ranked 32nd and 26th respectively in the NFL and those were their two highest scoring games of the season as they put up 30 and 48 points in those games. Take those out and the average drops from 22.5 ppg to just 17 ppg. The 49ers defense has been up and down and they are raked 19th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. They have has only two real bad games, one against Tennessee last week and another against Atlanta. The 34 points scored last week came on only 315 yards of offense by the Titans as seven of those points came on an interception return. The game against the Falcons saw 45 points allowed and that was simply a bad game that got out of control. Removing those aberrations and the average drops to 15.8 ppg allowed and that is actually really solid. Both teams fall into the very same situation and one that focuses on the offenses and the results from last week. Play the

**9** AFC GAME OF THE MONTH **4-1 SUNDAY** The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season last week in Baltimore. It certainly was not a pretty loss as they were dominated pretty well and the physicality of the game easily went to the side of the Ravens. This week it will be a very similar opponent and Denver will have to be more physical to compete. Denver has been the surprise team in the NFL this season but it still does not seem to be getting a whole lot of respect as it comes in as a home underdog once again, the third time in four games that has happened. The Broncos won the first two instances but both of those games could have gone either way and the matchup here are far less in their favor in this one. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week and that could be considered good or bad. The Steelers had won four straight games prior to the week off so it can be argued that some momentum from that run has been lost. On the flip side, the time off enabled Pittsburgh to rest some of its injuries and that can be more important in a lot of cases. The Steelers have been average coming off a bye week but there is a good lesson to be learned and that is the fact that it went to Denver two years ago following a bye and lost by a field goal in another primetime matchup. We will see a lot of the no-huddle offense from the Steelers tonight as the Broncos were exposed by it last week against Baltimore. The Ravens repeatedly kept the Broncos off balance by forcing them to keep their base defense on the field and preventing them from substituting situationally. Using a no-huddle in Denver might help the Steelers get their running game going because it wouldn't allow the Broncos to get extra defensive backs onto the field on certain plays. Because of the thin air, it is different playing in Denver but Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said he won't let the altitude affect his play-calling, or whether the Steelers use the no-huddle. The Denver offense showed its problems last week against Baltimore as the offensive line had a difficult time blocking that defensive line of the Ravens. That will only get worse this week. The Broncos ran for only 66 yards on 19 carries (3.5 ypc) and now they will face the NFL

**9** NFL SUNDAY PRIMETIME **83% ANGLES** The Eagles look great in this spot. With the exception of a dud tossed up in Oakland, the Eagles have been rolling along for the most part but that spot was one that Philadelphia was in definite trouble in as it was coming off three straight home games with three division games on deck. They were outgained in that Raiders game and they were actually outgained against the Redskins the next week but made up for it with big plays and an advantageous defense that turned turnovers into 13 points. Philadelphia steamrolled the Giants last week and the question remains are the Eagles are that good or are the Giants not that good? I think it is a bit of both and Philadelphia takes over the division lead after Sunday. Dallas has been great over the last three games but now comes its first true road test of the season. Two of those road games were at Tampa Bay and Kansas City so those definitely do not count and while the other came at Denver, I think the Broncos were playing over their heads at the time and this could be the start of a downward spiral for Denver. The Cowboys offense has averaged 33.7 ppg and 424.7 ypg over the last three games but those games came against defenses ranked 30th, 29th and 14th. They have faced three defenses in the top 10 and put up 31, 21 and 10 points for an average of 20.7 ppg which isn

This is an interesting matchup and an even more interesting line. The number opened at -5.5 and despite 70 percent of the action as of Friday afternoon coming in on the 49ers, the line has gone down. It is no surprise that the public is all over San Francisco after its solid effort last week and now playing a team with just one win but the reverse line movement is telling us to go the other way. There are several other reasons as well. After a promising start, things are falling apart in San Francisco. After getting hammered by the Falcons, the 49ers have lost two more games, albeit close ones, although they were outgained in both. They have been outyarded in five of their seven games on the season and even though they are still well within the division race, last week

**10** UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR *90% YTD* After the first week it looked as though the Texans were heading along the same path of recent years of being a sleeper playoff team and then folding yet again. A lesson learned is that we cannot judge a team after just one week as since then, Houston has been on a solid run. It is 5-2 since then with both losses coming by a touchdown in games that it could have tied late and possibly won in overtime. Still, the Texans are 5-3 for the first time since joining the NFL in 2002 and if the season ended today, they would be a Wildcard Playoff team. They have outgained each of their last five opponents and are outgaining them by an average of 138 ypg over this span. This is arguably one of the biggest games in franchise history. The Colts are off and running once again as they have coasted through the early part of the schedule but it is still unclear how good they really are. The Colts are 7-0 for the fourth time in five seasons by playing teams with a combined 17-33 record. Only Arizona, who is an average, has a winning record and overall, Indianapolis has played the 30th ranked schedule in the NFL. The Colts have the Patriots on deck and while rare for this team to not be fully focused, it will be hard for them not to be peaking ahead a little bit. Last season, the Colts were the same team basically while the Texans were not as good and in the meeting in Indianapolis, Houston entered that game 3-6 and was getting nine points. This season, it has almost flipped that record around and it still getting that number in some spots. Granted the Colts were only 5-4 but that had a lot to do with the absence of Peyton Manning during the preseason which carried over into the regular season. By the time they met in that game, the Colts were at full strength and as good as ever as that win was part of nine straight victories to close out the regular season. Houston lost that game by only six points and also lost the home meeting prior to that by only four points. The offense of the Colts we all know about but the offense of Houston is quickly becoming one of the most dangerous in the league. Quarterback Matt Schaub is seventh in the NFL in quarterback rating and he is third in the league with 292.8 ypg. His 16 touchdowns lead the NFL and along with wide receiver Andre Johnson, are becoming the top pass catching duo in the NFL. The Colts are playing great on defense but again, a lot of that is because of the soft schedule and that defense could be in some trouble this week. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden's status for Sunday is uncertain after he suffered a knee injury and concussion against the 49ers while fellow cornerback Marlin Jackson is also hurt and is questionable once again. They have also lost starting linebacker Tyjuan Hagler for the rest of the season with a ruptured biceps. Second-year linebacker Philip Wheeler and undrafted rookie Ramon Humber are expected to replace Hagler. The Colts are 3-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite while the Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog. Add to that, they are 10-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Houston also falls into a solid rushing situation. Play against favorites that are averaging between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc going up against a team with defense allowing more than 4.5 ypc after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 75-40 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being only -3.1 ppg. 10* Houston Texans

People will be lining up on Green Bay following its loss last weekend to the Vikings at home but that is not the right move here. The Packers have some serious issues going on with the defense and the offensive line, both of which were supposedly bolstered before the season began. The loss dropped Green Bay to 4-3 on the season with the three losses coming against the Vikings twice and the Bengals. The Packers have taken out all three cupcake teams they have played and that helps us out here in two different ways. It has inflated this line and as mentioned earlier, it puts the public all over the road team. Tampa Bay is the lone remaining winless team in he NFL after the Rams and Titans registered their first win last week. The Buccaneers are 0-7 and have been outgained in every game this season so why are we backing them? First, as mentioned, there is a ton of value in this line as they have not gotten anything close to this number at home in any game so far this season. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and home underdogs that have had a week off have been extremely solid propositions in the past. It gives these bad teams a chance to regroup and basically get their motor running once again. Even though they have been outgained in each game, the Buccaneers have been competitive in some of their games and they have been outgained by 85 or fewer yards in five of those seven games. Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris announced during the team's bye week that Josh Freeman would replace Josh Johnson as the starter, a position held by journeyman Byron Leftwich at the start of the season. Freeman inherits an offense that's ranked 28th in the league in offense with 272.3 ypg, 24th in rushing with 98 ypg, 23rd in passing with 174.3 ypg and tied for 28th in scoring with 13.7 ppg. This may seem like a recipe for disaster but new blood means a new attitude. If the Buccaneers have one bright spot, it's their running game, which is moving along at a 4.2 ypc which shows a different story than that 24th ranked offense. Both of their top rushers, Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward are rushing for over 4.0 ypc on the season and it will be up to them to take the pressure off Freeman. The Buccaneers defense has been pretty bad and was called out this week by Morris. When Tampa Bay's leading tackle Barrett Rudd was informed of those comments, he took it personally.

Kansas City has had a week off to think about that poor showing against the Chargers which came just one week after picking up its first win of the season against the Redskins. Of all of the one-win teams in the league, the Chiefs are arguably the best of the bunch as they have been involved in some very competitive games and their -10.9 ppg scoring average is skewed because of only two bad games. The defense has actually improved its scoring since the start of the season despite giving up 37 points to the Chargers in that last game. Jacksonville is coming off its third straight horrendous game. It was hammered in Seattle and then was taken into overtime by the Rams prior to its bye week. Last week the Jaguars gave Tennessee its first win of the season so the time off certainly did not help. Yes they come into this game as large favorites despite being only two games better than Kansas City. The public is still holding out hope however as close to 70 percent of the over 10,000 wagers have been placed on Jacksonville yet the line has not moved and it has actually come down in some places. The Kansas City offensive line has been a liability all season long. The Chiefs have struggled running the ball and their 27 sacks allowed are second worst in football. The good news here is that they matchup against a defensive line that might actually be worse so the matchups are on the side of Kansas City. The Jaguars are allowing 128.3 ypg on 4.3 ypc on the season but that jumps to 167.7 ypg and 4.7 ypg over the last three games. The Chiefs are without running back Larry Johnson but I think he is well past his prime and his replacement is Jamaal Charles who has the ability to be a better runner. He is averaging 5.0 ypc after averaging 5.3 ypc last season. To top it off, the Jaguars have only five sacks this season, worst in the NFL and that means Matt Cassel may finally be able to avoid pressure and put together a solid game similar to the game against the Cowboys. Jacksonville can have success if it runs the ball and gives it to Maurice Jones-Drew but it does not do that on a consistent basis and who knows what the game plan will be here. Look for Chiefs defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast to dial up a lot of run blitzes as the Chiefs try to plug the running lanes and limit Jacksonville's ground game. The Chiefs are giving up 7.6 yards per play through the air, fourth most in the NFL, and are struggling when it comes to mounting any kind of pass rush from their defensive line. To their credit, they have faced the likes of Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb and Joe Flacco. I think it is safe to say that Garrard does not fall into that group so there is not a lot of concern with the passing defense. Kansas City falls into a nice situation based on the Jaguars last game. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss by 10 or more points against going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1983. 7* Kansas City Chiefs

**10** NFL TOP MNF NOVEMBER PLAY *89% YTD* This line has gotten out of control. The Saints opened as nine-point favorites but the line has gone up to as much as -12 in some places and may not sop there. New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 both straight up and against the number and that makes it a very public play. Of the over 77,000 wagers on this game on Monday morning, 60 percent of the action is on the Saints and that will only go up by gametime. The Saints have won games in different ways this season and last weekend was the biggest comeback of the season as they outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter to pull out an improbable victory. It is Week Eight but this is the first divisional game of the season for New Orleans. The Falcons are coming off another poor performance last week against the Cowboys and they have now been outgained in four of their last five games. Despite this, Atlanta is 4-2 on the season and trails the Saints by just two games in the NFC South so a win here is huge. While a lot of people are thinking this is going to be a shootout, that is the last things that the Falcons want. They will be content to play a possession game and use the running game to their advantage if they can get it going. Atlanta is 9-0, when running back Michael Turner rushes for over 100 yards in a game. The Falcons had one of the most productive offenses in the league last year during their 11-5 playoff run last season and definitely made a major upgrade in the offseason by adding multiple-time Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez has given second-year quarterback Matt Ryan another steady target over the middle, a void that was left when Algee Crumpler left Atlanta for Tennessee before Ryan

I said Monday that I would not be backing Jake Delhomme again following another bad performance but here I am again and the reasonings are aplenty. This line opened at a touchdown and it has already gone up to double digits as the public is all over the Cardinals here. Carolina lost at home to Buffalo despite outgaining the Bills by 258 total yards but it was the turnovers that once again hurt the Panthers. There was talk this week about head coach John Fox benching Delhomme but he decided not to do it and just the talk of it should get Delhomme fired up to play better with his job on the line. The line value here is tremendous. Carolina went from laying seven points last week to getting 10 points, and probably more by gametime, this week and a 17-point swing simply is just a regular occurrence in the NFL especially when we are going from a 3-4 team to a 4-2 team. The public is all over Arizona nut just because of the Carolina struggles but also because of the Cardinals recent run. Arizona has gone on the road the last two weeks and defeated the Seahawks and Giants, two places where it is extremely tough for the opposition to have success in. Despite winning three of its last four games, Arizona has been outgained in three of its last four games and for the season it is just +4.3 ypg in yardage differential. Conversely, the Panthers are +29.7 ypg in yardage differential so the numbers have been better yet the line isn

**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *79% ANGLES* Tennessee is 0-6 on the season and coming off the worst loss in franchise history as it was blasted by the Patriots 59-0. That would normally be an impossible game to come back from but the Titans had a week off to figure out exactly what went wrong and to try and regroup and turn nothing into something. They caught the Patriots at the wrong time in that snow as New England seems to thrive in that stuff similar to its whitewash of Arizona last season in the same conditions. The Titans are now home and not only are they looking to bounce back from that game but they are also looking to get some revenge on the Jaguars who won the first meeting this season 37-17. Jacksonville is also coming in off a bye week after a narrow escape at home against the Rams in a game it took overtime to win. The Jaguars have not put together too many good efforts this season especially on the road. They did pick up a win in Houston but only outgained the Texans by a yard in that one. In the first game this season, they lost to the Colts by only two points but that final was deceiving as they were outgained by 137 total yards and then there was the game at Seattle where Jacksonville lost 41-0 and was outgained by 180 yards. At 3-3, the season if far from lost for the Jaguars but this is not a team playing with much fore right now. As bad as Tennessee has been, the running game is still strong on both sides of the ball. The Titans are averaging 138.5 ypg on 5.3 ypg while allowing 95.0 ypg on 3.4 ypc. Variances such as that usually lead to more wins but Tennessee has not gotten one break at all this season and that can be a domino effect. The move to promote Vince Young to starting quarterback was the right one for the Texans and not because Kerry Collins was stinking up the joint but simply because change can be good and it cannot hurt at this point. The Titans defense has been atrocious, namely the secondary that has been torched for 19 touchdowns. Jacksonville has been very inconsistent on offense and David Garrard has not exactly been dominant. Three of his five touchdowns this season came against Tennessee but the second meeting gives the edge to that defense especially when coming home. The Titans' secondary simply can't afford to miss tackles or allow receivers to get free downfield and we will likely see a lot of Cover 2 as the Titans try to keep Jacksonville from hitting on big plays. I don

**10** NFL NON-DIVISIONAL ROUT **7-1 YTD** The Ravens could not have had their bye week come at a better time. After starting the season 3-0, Baltimore dropped its next three games with all of those losses coming on the final minute. Two instances against New England and Minnesota, it had chances to win but a dropped pass and missed field goal respectively ended those chances while in-between, the Bengals scored a touchdown in the final minute to pull out a big road win. Looking back, Baltimore could be anywhere from 4-2 to 6-0 but it has to deal with the cards it was dealt and move on. The Ravens are home again and look to get back to its winning ways against the biggest surprise in the NFL. The Broncos are a perfect 6-0 to start the season and that is definitely a surprise to all. Just like the Ravens, Denver could have a different record if things had gone the other way in come close games and feasibly it could be sitting at 3-3 right now. A fourth quarter miracle against the Bengals, a fourth quarter comeback against the Cowboys and an overtime win over the Patriots could have gone the opposite way in each of those so the Broncos are a fortunate 6-0 right now. Taking nothing away from the unblemished record but Denver has had too many good fortunes go its way. Coming off a bye as well, the Broncos may have lost some important momentum that it had gained throughout the winning streak. For the Ravens in their second season under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice have carried a unit that ranks seventh in total yardage and is averaging a solid 28.2 ppg. They have opened up their passing game and maintained a solid running attack behind Rice, who leads the NFL in total yardage. This offense, which used to be the downfall, is now one of the best and goes up against one of the best defenses in the league which is a reason why the Broncos have started so good. The defense last year was horrendous and something says that it is going to struggle here as this is the best unit it has seen on the road thus far. On the other side, the Ravens went 39 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher before Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson each surpassed the century mark in successive weeks before the bye. Denver does not have a running back that will be able to make it three straight although Knowshon Moreno is a star in the making. Many people will remember how the Ravens came out of nowhere to make it to the AFC Championship but not many remember exactly how it happened. They started 2-3, then closed 9-2 and won two playoff games so they have been in this spot before and know what it takes to break out of it. The Ravens falls into a great situation as well. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1983. Denver is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game while the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game. Also, Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games against teams that are completing 64 percent or more of their passes. 10* Baltimore Ravens

The Bills have won their last two games against the Jets and Panthers to move to 3-4 on the season. Judging by this line and what the public is doing, they are getting no respect still and that is just fine by me. The last two wins have come on the road and now Buffalo is back home and grabbing points in a game it should not be the underdog in. The loss of quarterback Trent Edwards was thought to have been the nail in the coffin to this season but Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a great job in leading the offense and the confidence is once again on the side of the Bills. Three of the last four games have been on the road and this is only the fourth home game of the season. The two wins came against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, arguably the two worst teams in the league but the spot here for Buffalo is fantastic. Houston has won two straight games and is 2-1 on the road this season including a very impressive win at Cincinnati. The Bengals were in an impossible spot however as they were just coming off that huge win in Baltimore so the Texans were able to catch them at the right time. Now the ball is on the opposite end. Houston has won two straight and has a game against the Colts next week in Indianapolis. So far this season, the Texans have been favored in all of their home games and underdogs in all of their road games. That has actually been the theme for the past few years for the majority but there have been exceptions and those have not benefitted the Texans. Houston has been a road favorite only three times in the history of the Texans franchise and it is 0-3 ATS in those games, losing all of those games outright. The one thing about Fitzpatrick is that he has the ability to sling the long ball. There isn't a member of the Texans' secondary who is playing at a real high level right now and opposing wideouts are tearing up this group. Houston also has been very poor with their red zone defense. Receivers Terrell Owens and especially Lee Evans are still very capable of converting the deep ball. The Texans are 18th in passing defense and Buffalo definitely has the ability to take advantage. To do that it will need to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch and Victor Jackson and those two have been solid. Houston is 21st against the run while the Bills are 11th in rushing offense. On the other side it is strength against strength and the Texas potent passing game will take on the improved Bill passing defense. While it was a huge problem in 2008, the Bills' pass rush is vastly improved and it will need to put pressure on Matt Schaub who is a timing passer and can get off his game if he is moved out of the pocket. His best receiver Andre Johnson is banged up and not at 100 percent with bruised lung. Houston is just 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games following a win so it has proven in the past to show a letdown in these spots. The Bills have not been treating their backers very well at home of late but getting points this Sunday sets up an ideal spot as a win gets the money as does a close loss as this line continues to go up. 7* Buffalo Bills

The Seahawks are coming off a bye week and it was probably a good time for it. Seattle was coming off a blowout against Jacksonville and had all sorts of momentum but the following week it was handled at home by the Cardinals. That loss to Arizona is not looking as bad now after the Cardinals went into New York last Sunday night and took out the Giants. Seattle has been a very average road team throughout the recent years and that includes a 0-2 record this season. However it was far from at full strength in either of those two games and that is not the case this week as the Seahawks come in healthy on offense, namely quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Cowboys looked very impressive last week in a home win over Atlanta. This team has been inconsistent all season long so there is not a whole lot of confidence that they can put together another effort like that. Making matters worse for Dallas is that it is in a classic lookahead situation with road games at Philadelphia and at Green Bay up next. The offense has been solid again this season but it is the defense that is the big concern. The Cowboys have allowed more points in each of their last four games and the passing defense will be at a big disadvantage here. Dallas is ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing defense and it is making opposing quarterbacks look very good by allowing a 61.5 percent completion rate and posting an opposing 90.0 passer rating which is 21st in the league. Don

**9** NFL GAME OF THE MONTH **76% ANGLE** The Redskins came into the season as the worst team in the NFC East but the worst team in that division was better than a lot of the best teams from other divisions. They have hardly lived up to expectations as they are 2-4 on the year and in the middle of coaching issues. Head coach Jim Zorn was rumored to have been fired early this week had Mike Shanahan accepted the job of taking over but apparently he did not. On Friday, Zorn was given assurance that his job is safe through the end of the season and that is important here. With that pressure gone, Washington can now simply play football and look to turn this year around. The Redskins have played the easiest schedule in the NFL and this is the first game this season they have played against a team that comes in with at least one win showing just how easy the slate has been. Something says they get up in a big way for the hated Eagles. Philadelphia is coming off a loss in Oakland last week and I successfully played against the Eagles in that spot as they were in a horrible spot. It would have been better for us here if they had not lost that game outright as we lose some line value because of it but they are still heavily overvalued in this situation. This is the first of three straight division games for Philadelphia and while it is not going to overlook the Redskins, it might find itself in a tougher spot than originally thought. The Eagles have shined against the number on Monday nights on the road under head coach Andy Reid but those roles were as underdogs and it is extremely rare to see a heavy road chalk in the big spotlight yet it does not seem to bother the public who is all over the Eagles. What can we say about the Washington offense? They have yet to score more than 17 points this season but it has been able to move the ball at a decent pace. The problem has been finishing drives and third downs as the Redskins are one of just six teams in the NFL that have failed to convert at least 30 percent of their third down attempts. With Zorn relinquished of his play calling duties and Sherm Lewis brought in to take over, it is time to shake the offense up. We can expect to see things we have not seen yet this season from the Redskins and that will keep the Eagles defense off balance. At this point, they have nothing to lose. Philadelphia had trouble on offense last week and they now go up against a Redskins defense that is fifth in the league, allowing just 287 ypg. Granted, they have played a weak schedule but this unit finished fourth last season so it is definitely solid and not just a fluke. The Eagles have major problems on the left side of their offensive line and you can bet that the Redskins will attack with some overload blitzes from that side. Last week, Oakland finished with six sacks and it came into that game with only nine. The Redskins have a good front four that can control the line of scrimmage and could play coverage schemes on the backend which can enable some blitzing to take place but without an offense that can score a lot of points, Washington can't afford to give up big plays because they are not a good come-from-behind team. Washington also falls into a great contrarian situation. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging fewer than14 ppg, going up against a team allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -2 ppg. 9* Washington Redskins

The Giants went into last week as arguably the best team in the NFL but emerged as a team with glaring weaknesses on defense. I don

**9** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *80% SUNDAY* The Saints put on a show last week against the Giants and there is no denying that New Orleans is at the NFL right now. They have looked good all season and their 5-0 clearly backs that up but they are in a very tough spot this week. Last week

The Bills shocked a lot of people last weekend when it went into New York in extreme windy conditions, lost their quarterback and came away with a victory over the Jets in overtime. Buffalo had lost three straight games leading up to last Sunday and it had totaled 17 points in those three contests which was just four points more than what it scored last week. Even so, the Bills have averaged only nine ppg over the last four games and overall, the offense is 25th in the NFL, averaging 291.2 ypg and their 15.5 ppg scoring average is 26th in the league. Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at quarterback, there are people saying that the offense might open up as he is able to get the ball downfield better but I am not buying that. The Panthers have won two straight games after starting the season 0-3 and they come in with a good deal of confidence. The two wins came against the Buccaneers and Redskins, two of the worst teams in the NFL but Buffalo can certainly be placed in that grouping. The victory last week was good for one really good thing and that was that Carolina was able to run the ball and run it well. The Panthers gained 267 yards on 48 carries (5.6 ypc) and that is what this team needs to do to be successful. Quarterback Jake Delhomme had another bad game but he did not have to win the game for the Panthers and that is important as he is having a miserable season. The good news here is that Carolina can continue running the ball and should have just as much success. The running back combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is one of the best in the league. Buffalo is allowing 181.8 ypg on the ground which is dead last in the league as is its 5.3 ypc average. The Bills gave up a whopping 318 yards on 40 carries (8.0 ypc) and for that to happen and come away with a win is a miracle. Buffalo has been hit very hard by linebacker injuries and is fielding a makeshift group at this point. They were able to intercept Mark Sanchez five times and a lot of that had to do with the conditions and as it extremely windy and it was Sanchez

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR The Chargers were a big letdown on Monday night as they carried a lead only to let it go in the second half. It can now be considered desperation time for San Diego who is three games behind the surprising Broncos in the AFC West. The same scenario took place last season when the Chargers rallied late in the season and overtook Denver in the final month. They can use that to their advantage this season as they know no lead is insurmountable and they have a lot more time to make the move. San Diego has two winnable games before a game against the Giants in New York which makes this week and next week that much more important. Coming off two straight losses, the Chargers are in a very good spot as explained further down in the report. The Chiefs finally got into the win column last week as they took out the Redskins in Washington. While it can be said that it was a good win, it can also be said that it was more of a loss for the Redskins and I have to go with the latter. Kansas City is not a very good team and even though the last two games look good on paper (a win and an overtime loss), there are still a lot of issues going on. The offense remains a work in progress and is one of the worst in the league while the defense is still allowing too many big plays. Yes, they allowed only six points last week against Washington but the Redskins are averaging only 13.2 ppg on the season and have not scored more than 17 points all season long. The Chiefs have allowed totals of 26 points or more in four of six games so that effort last week is more of an aberration than things to come. Monday night against the Broncos really showed some offensive line struggles of San Diego as it allowed five sacks and Philip Rivers seemed to be constantly under pressure. However, the Broncos lead the NFL in sacks with 21 and the Chargers will now face a defense that is the total opposite. Kansas City has just nine sacks on the entire season which is 28th in the NFL. The Chargers had a very difficult time handling the blitz package that Denver threw at them and here, Kansas City cannot bring the same pressure. Looking at the overall defense, the Chiefs are allowing 379.8 ypg which is 29th in the league and this is a big break for the Chargers who have faced two of the top three defenses in their last two games and Denver and Pittsburgh are allowing 262.5 ypg and 275.2 ypg respectively. The running game of San Diego looks good last Monday at certain times but it was inconsistent and that should reverse itself out here. The Chargers defense has not fared a lot better this season as they are allowing 358.2 ypg which is 23rd in the league and they have gotten to the quarterback only seven times. The good news here is that they will be going against the worst offensive line they have seen this season as the Chiefs have allowed 22 sacks which is tied for second to last in the NFL. Also, Kansas City is 25th in the NFL in rushing as it is averaging only 98 ypg on 3.4 ypc and that average is tied for 26th. San Diego has had trouble against the run this year but it has faced offenses ranked 1st, 7th, 10th and 15th in rushing offense with the first game against the Raiders being the lone exception. Running back Larry Johnson is well past his prime and he averaging a paltry 2.7 ypc on the year and his longest run on the season came last week against the Redskins and that was only 17 yards. If the Chargers can make Kansas City one-dimensional by containing Johnson, they can use more defenders to flood the zones with coverage, limiting the throwing lanes available. The Chargers are coming off two very high scoring games and they have been great in this spot going 10-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. San Diego is 38-9 ATS when it gained 400 or more total yards so that is our key number this week. The situation mentioned earlier is extremely strong. Play on road favorites with a winning percentage between 40 and 49 percent on the season after two or more consecutive losses. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 and it is a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last five years. This makes complete sense as a team that has lost two straight games is rarely a favorite in the next game, let alone a road favorite. It is telling us the team is better than that along with the fact that the opponent is very weak. 10* San Diego Chargers

I have gone against Minnesota the last four games, going 2-2 against the number and it should be a better record than that. The Vikings have been outgained in each of their last three games as the defense has been playing pretty poorly. They have allowed 448, 400 and 424 yards in the last three games which is horrible considering two of those games were at home and the other was against the Rams. The offense has been able to do just enough to win these games but that streak could come to an end this weekend. Minnesota has not played the toughest of schedules this season as its slate is ranked 24th in the NFL and I considering it even worse than that as the Vikings have had the luxury of playing their last five games indoors as three have been at home and the other two were in domes in St. Louis and Detroit. Now it goes back outside for the first time since playing in Cleveland opening weekend. The Steelers are coming off a less than impressive win over the Brown last week as the score indicates but they actually completely dominated that game. They outgained Cleveland by 346 total yards but only won by 13 points and it was due to four turnovers, something that has not been a real issue up until then. Pittsburgh outrushed the Browns by 49 yards and it was the fourth time in six game it has outrushed the opponent and that is important in this spot. The Steelers suffered two three-point losses on the road prior to its current three-game winning streak and those setbacks came in the final seconds or in overtime so this team feasibly could be undefeated right now. The Steelers are just 1-5 against the number and that definitely plays a role in this line and what it does for us is give us excellent line value. Adrian Peterson ran through the Ravens for 143 yards but he is still suffering from a twisted ankle and might be compromised by injury. He will still be a focus as Pittsburgh tries to keep its 24-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher intact. That said, the Steelers will want Brett Favre to try and beat them and while he is having a spectacular season, this could be just the defense to finally shut him down. On the other side, if Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield doesn't play, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's chances of a big day are bigger. With Winfield sidelined in the second half last weekend, Joe Flacco attacked replacement Karl Paymah and he ended up having a big day. Afterward, Flacco mentioned that he "tried to take advantage of a couple of things out there," which is another way of saying he looked for Paymah. Winfield has missed the first two days of practice this week, which is not a good sign for the Vikings and their pass defense. The Steelers are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games when playing a team with a winning percentage greater than .750 and they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after passing for more than 300 yards. The Vikings are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 7.0 or more yppl in their last game and 1-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 7* Pittsburgh Steelers

**10** TOP MNF OCTOBER REPORT **6-0 YTD** Denver may finally be getting the respect it deserves but from a betting standpoint, it may be too late. The Broncos are one of four undefeated teams in the NFL and the public may finally be starting to take notice. They continue to bring this line down and this is actually the lowest line in this series in San Diego since 2004 as the Chargers have been favored by 7, 9, 9 and 11.5 in the last four home meetings. I do not think the gap has closed between these two teams for such a line difference especially when you consider that the Chargers have won five of the last six meetings. Taking nothing away from Denver at this point but now is the time to start going the other way as it is being overvalued. The Chargers, especially at home, are usually the team that gets the public backing but people do have more love for the undefeated teams. San Diego is 2-2 and it comes into this game off a bye week following a rough game in Pittsburgh two weeks ago where the defense allowed 38 points and 497 total yards. The week off could not have come at a better time however as it gave the defensive line time to rest and heal as it was tossed around by the Steelers because of injuries and being shorthanded. The Chargers should have a more sturdy rotation on Monday night against Denver, with end Travis Johnson returning from a groin injury and Ian Scott back in the mix. The other side of the ball has been a concern for San Diego, namely the rushing game as it is averaging only 53.8 ypg on the season and neither LaDainian Tomlinson nor Darren Sproles has 100 yards for the year. The challenge is there again this week against the Broncos as for a fourth consecutive game, the Chargers are playing a top ten defense with the first three coming against Baltimore, Miami and Pittsburgh. The question is whether the Chargers can run the ball against a Broncos team giving up 81 ypg on the ground, good for sixth in the NFL, and just 8.6 ppg, which leads the league. Philip Rivers is averaging 311.3 ypg, with is second in the NFL behind only Peyton Manning. Rivers has thrown six touchdown passes and three interceptions in four games, against at least two of the league's better defenses in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. He loves the spotlight as he is 4-0 with an average passer rating of 106.9 in Monday games. The gameplan will not be for Rivers to throw all night however as they are going to establish the run it is time for the reversal to take place. The Broncos have had a favorable schedule of late with three of their last four games being played in the thin air of Denver with the lone road game being at Oakland. Wins over Dallas and New England the last two weeks were impressive indeed, but again both came at home and that is a huge difference. Not only have the Broncos not won in San Diego since 2005, their five losses to the Chargers during the last three seasons have been lopsided. A loss here means San Diego will be 3.5 games out and even though it was able to overcome a bigger deficit last season, doing it two years in a row likely is not going to happen. It is desperation time and that a player

**8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *65% RUN* I was on the Bears in this same matchup last season and they were definitely a disappointment as they lost as three-point favorites. This year, the line has reversed itself and for good reason. The Falcons are a team on the rise and they are showing how good they are at home. Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 9-1 at home so getting anything at a field goal or less is excellent value considering the Falcons are 7-3 ATS over those 10 games. This is a big game under a big stage but making it even bigger is the fact that Atlanta has four road games in its next five contests so keeping that strong home record intact is a must. The talk is that the Falcons defense is soft but they put up a big effort last week even though the 49ers offense is no powerhouse. The defensive line set the tone for the entire game, stuffing the run and putting pressure on Shaun Hill all day, refusing to let him get comfortable in the pocket. Even though the defensive line and secondary have had their ups and downs, the linebackers have been pretty rock solid in every game they

**8** NFC GAME OF THE WEEK **81% ANGLES** Seattle absolutely destroyed the Jaguars last weekend to get its season moving in the right direction once again. When quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was either knocked out of the game or did not play, the Seahawks have gone 0-3. In the two games he has started and finished, they are 2-0 and have outscored opponents 69-0. It is safe to say that Seattle needs him to stay healthy. That was not the case last season when Hasselbeck was knocked out in Game Four and the season ended up being a disaster. That allowed the Cardinals to win the division with a 9-7 record and the Seahawks are extremely motivated to get the division back and it starts this week. A victory puts them back at .500 on the season and improves them to 2-1 in the division which would be just a game behind the 49ers. Seattle is 2-1 at home and was one busted defensive coverage against the Bears to possibly being 3-0. Arizona got away with one last week against Houston to even its record at 2-2. This is just the second road game of the season for the Cardinals with the first game resulting in a win at Jacksonville so this will mark the toughest road game of the year so far. Arizona has been unimpressive in its last two games as it was hammered by the Colts right before the bye and then was outgained last week at home against the Texans. It has been a month since the Cardinals have traveled and they are going to one of the toughest venues in the entire league playing a team with revenge from a season sweep a season ago. I consider the Cardinals a very overrated team but because of the Super Bowl appearance from a season ago, they are still getting too much respect from the linesmakers. Consider this, two years ago the Seahawks were favored in this game by a touchdown when they were 8-4 and the Cardinals were 6-6. At this point of the season, both teams are more like those teams as opposed to last season when Seattle was reeling with injuries and came into the Arizona home game with a 2-7 record. A healthy Hasselbeck means a very potent Seattle passing attack and that does not bode well for the Cardinals. Last season, Arizona was 22nd in the NFL in passing defense and this year it is deal last in the league, allowing 303 ypg. The Cardinals are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.9 percent of their passes, 24th in the league while putting up an opposing quarterback rating of 98 which is 27th in the NFL. Hasselbeck has a rating of 103.1 and he has a group of receivers that arguably are his best in a while. The Seahawks signed wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and they also got back a healthy Nate Burleson, an underrated wide receiver that was placed on injured reserve last year. The Cardinals haven't gotten one sack in the past two games, and have barely even hit the quarterbacks at that so a lack of pressure will allow Hasselbeck to have a huge day. On the other side, Kurt Warner is old and he is banged up making him very inconsistent. Seattle is 10-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The key number here is 23 offensive points as going back to its Super Bowl season, the Seahawks are 18-4-1 ATS at home when they score 23 or more points. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of three points or fewer and the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last meetings in this series. 8* Seattle Seahawks

**7** NFL SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT *78% ANGLES* This is an ugly and contrarian play but the value is simply too good to pass up. The Eagles are playing some excellent football right now but the situations they have been in have helped out. They have had the luxury of playing three straight home games with a bye thrown in there for good measure so they have not had to travel since opening week and now they have to head out west and play arguably the worst team in the NFL. Add to that, Philadelphia has three straight division games on deck and what we have is one of the worst spots for a team we have seen all season long. The Eagles want no part of this game and if a team is going to simply go through the motions, this is it. The Raiders are coming off their third straight loss and their third straight ugly loss for that matter. To their credit, the last two games were on the road so they are home for the first time in three weeks and while home field advantage is not what it used to be in Oakland, it is still home and that still counts for something. The Raiders started the season with a very solid game at home against the Chargers and then went on the road to defeat the Chiefs so they do have it in them to play a good game. Following three straight horrible games where they were outscored by a combined 96-16, the bounce factor tells us now is the time to grab Oakland. The Philadelphia situation only makes it stronger. Comparing last week

**10** NFL NON-CONFERENCE REPORT *5-0 YTD* The Ravens enter this game off brutal back-to-back losses and a 3-2 record could be a 5-0 record right now. Baltimore lost in New England no thanks to a Mark Clayton drop inside the redzone as it was driving and then last week gave up the winning touchdown to the Bengals in the closing minute. Granted, the Ravens were outgained pretty heavy against Cincinnati but it was a game it could have and really should have won. It will be argued that the three wins came against teams that are not very good and while that may be the case, the win in San Diego was rather big and the two wins over Kansas City and Cleveland came by a combined 606 total yard advantage. The Vikings are 5-0 and playing at home yet are just a three-point favorite in this game. What if Baltimore actually came into this game at 5-0? Would the Vikings be underdogs? This line is one of those that don

**9** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *73% ANGLES* The Bengals have won four straight games and are the toast of the NFL right now but this is certainly not a good spot. The win last week over the Ravens took a lot out of this team both physically and mentally. The former due to the physical nature of the Ravens style and the latter due to playing with every ounce of energy for defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. The last time the Bengals won a big game, three weeks ago against the Steelers, they followed that up with a dud in Cleveland and barely escaped with a victory. I expect the same thing to happen this week as a letdown is inevitable and it would not be surprising to see an outright loss. This line also does not make too much sense considering one of the hottest teams in the NFL is playing a 2-3 team and with a large public following yet the line has only risen by a half-point. The Texans lost a heartbreaker last week in Arizona as they blew a late lead and came up short as they could not punch in a tying touchdown from the one-yard line. A couple breaks their way and the Texans could be 4-1 right now but instead, each game is becoming more and more important and this one especially true. A victory here means Houston could be 5-3 heading into a big game in Indianapolis as its next two games are very winnable. The Texans have outgained their last two opponents and while one of those was the Raiders, it is definitely a step in the right direction. The key is consistency as it has been a tale of two halves this season so putting a full effort together for the entire game is big. Carson Palmer is obviously the heart and soul of this team as his absence last season sent the Bengals into a tailspin. While they are 4-1, Palmer has not put up great numbers as he has completed only 57.7 percent of his passes while throwing seven touchdowns and six interceptions while compiling a 76.9 passer rating which is good for only 24th in the NFL. Conversely, Matt Schaub is having a fantastic season after a bad opening game as he is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,418 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions for a 97.9 passer rating, ninth best in the league. The Cincinnati defense has been the story as the unit is allowing just 18 ppg which is tied for ninth in the NFL. However, they are allowing 327.6 ypg which is only 17th in the league and while that bend don

Miami picked up its first win of the season with a relatively easy victory over Buffalo. The schedule gets tougher now with the Jets up next, a team that suffered its first loss last week in New Orleans. The Dolphins have looked really good in both home games as the other game was also on Monday night and Miami was in it throughout against the Colts. It had edges in a lot of pertinent statistical categories and it is hoping for more of the same as the gameplan will once again to be to run the ball. There is still talk about missing Chad Pennington at quarterback but the other Chad did a decent job in his first start on Sunday. Henne was not spectacular, but the Miami offense scored four touchdowns and that's as many as it scored in the three games before Sunday. The Jets will now try to bounce back from a loss, something it has yet to do. They are definitely considered the better team here based on the line but I am not sure how true this is. Quarterback Mark Sanchez struggled in his first road game after that first one in Houston and now he will face a defense that is just as good and one that is much against the run. Sanchez has passed numerous tests already this season but this being his first nationally televised primetime game will be another test. Sanchez comes into this game with a passer rating of 71.2 which is 25th in the NFL so he is playing like a rookie up to this point. After outgaining Houston by 279 yards in their opener, the Jets have been outgained in their last three games and that is not the sign of a great team and one that should be favored on the road in a division game. The Miami running game is the strength obviously and it will look to keep doing what it has been doing and that is outgaining its opponent on the road. The Dolphins have outgained all four opponents on0020the ground behind a rushing offense that is ranked first in the league, averaging 183.5 ypg on 5.0 ypc and a rushing defense that is ranked second in the league, allowing 61 ypg on 2.9 ypc. Those are advantages any team would take and especially one with a quarterback making only his second start ever. In the game last Sunday, the Dolphins held the ball for 37:09 to Buffalo

**7** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *66% RUN* I have gotten burned with the Titans for the last two weeks as have many people as it is hard to fathom that they have started this season 0-4. While taking them again here may seem like chasing, it is not that at all as this situation is too good to overlook. First and foremost, Tennessee

**8** NFC GAME OF THE MONTH **83% ANGLES** Atlanta comes into this game off a bye week and that probably came at just the right time even though it is so early in the season. The Falcons have been struggling despite a 2-1 record. They were able to handle the Dolphins in Week One but they have been outgained in each of their last two games including getting outyarded by 188 yards at New England two weeks ago. They were nearly doubled up in time of possession in that game against the Patriots and it is hard to compete when that happens. Atlanta catches San Francisco at a good time and even in a west coast game, the Falcons have plenty of edges. The 49ers rolled last week against the Rams but they totaled only 228 total yards on offense and that won

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR I went against the Bengals last week in Cleveland and that paid off as Cincinnati was caught in a tough sandwich spot after defeating the Steelers in Week Three and looking ahead to this game in Week Five. It was a little too close for comfort for Cincinnati as it took overtime to win but now sitting at 3-1, it is tied with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North. It is safe to say that the Bengals are getting no respect still and we can look at last year to prove this. In the second meeting, Baltimore was favored in Cincinnati by a touchdown meaning the line was based on the Ravens being -10 on a neutral field. That would make then roughly a six-point favorite on a neutral field this season so the difference is about four points. The Bengals were 1-10 at that point last season while Baltimore was 7-4 so the linesmakers are saying that despite a huge turnaround, Cincinnati is only four points better. I disagree and have this line at Baltimore -4 based on the home field advantage so we are getting a ton of value in this number. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss in New England last Sunday as it was driving for the go ahead touchdown before a dropped pass by Mark Clayton ended the comeback bid. We will definitely see a hungry and upset Ravens team looking for some redemption but I don

**8** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *89% ANGLES* The Rams are one of the worst two or three teams in the NFL and I

**7** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *78% ANGLES* Carolina is coming off its bye week and it will be looking for its first victory of the season. The last two games the Panthers have played have not been all that bad and they were in both of those late with chances to win. Unfortunately, they stepped on their foot both times and they come into this one 0-3. Winless teams coming off byes are always a solid proposition and in this case it is even better with a playoff team trying to get its act together and quickly. The upcoming schedule is very favorable for the Panthers as they have Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Arizona after this before a showdown at New Orleans so a 4-3 record heading into that game is more than possible and at this stage, it will probably be a necessity. The Redskins are the worst 2-2 team in football right now. Starting the season with a loss against the Giants was nothing to be ashamed of but almost going 0-3 against St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa is something that they should be ashamed of. Coming away 2-1 in those three games was luckier than being good and this team has been on a downward spiral since the second half of last season. Washington is 4-8 since then and it easily could be much worse but for some reason, the public still likes it so we keep getting value in its lines. I wish I had taken more advantage as they have been on my against list the last three week but the teams they were playing were even worse and the situations just did not call for backing those squads. The situation here is much different however. I am really surprised how much Jason Campbell has digressed. I was pretty high on him in the preseason as it looked as though he finally understood the system and what he could do in it. He has played four very average games this season with his highest passer rating being only 97.6. Let

**9** NFL MONDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *68% RUN* I am looking forward for this game to start not because it is such a huge game but because I am looking forward for this pregame hype to come to an end. It is just like any other game on Monday night but listening to every sports show and they are billing this as one of the greatest games ever. The Brett Favre spectacle is obviously reason for this circus but there is much more to this game than that even though Favre could very well play into this outcome. He led Minnesota to a miracle win last week and had Greg Lewis not made that catch, as he was the real hero, the Vikings would be 2-1 and we would not be seeing this line. We are probably only getting a point of value but it is a big point as it crosses over the key number of three. A lot of people talk about the advantage Favre has because he played with a lot of the defensive players on Green Bay and went against them in practice a couple years ago. But exactly how much of an advantage this will be for the Vikings quarterback is open to debate. The scheme has been overhauled as defensive coordinator Dom Capers was hired and brought the 3-4 defense. Of the 11 Green Bay defensive players expected to start Monday, 10 were once teammates of Favre's but it may not make a difference at all. Capers has a number of options available to him to defend against Favre, running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings' receivers. He actually unveiled a new form of the defense last week against the Rams because he thought it was necessary to help win the most important game to the Packers at that time. Two big players who are expected to have a big impart are cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Woodson already has three interceptions this season, and he certainly knows Favre well and the ability of he and Harris to cover receivers one-on-one allows the Packers to use exotic looks on defense. Peterson has had great success against the Packers in the past so stopping him is obviously key but let

**8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *70% RUN* This line seems very out of whack to me. Although, being a Sunday Night nationally televised game with the reigning Super Bowl champions hosting, it is right where it needs to be. Public action is coming in on the Chargers early in the week but a lot of that is smart money as most of the square money doesn

**10** NFL #1 NON-CONNFERENCE REPORT *3-0* While many saw New Orleans as being 3-0 at this point, not many saw the Jets being 3-0 as well. New York has come off back-to-back big wins at home and this is not an easy spot it is traveling into. Both of those games at home were close heading into the final minutes so the Jets can be considered fortunate to still be undefeated. I have been very impressed with Mark Sanchez so far this year. He is not putting up big numbers but he doing enough to win and more importantly, not to lose. Now comes a real test which is quite simply the toughest road game of the year so far. The Saints have pretty much cruised in all three of their games, winning each by at least 18 points and while it can be argued the schedule has been soft, that won

**8** NFL FALSE CHALK MISMATCH *+19 UNITS* Plain and simple, Buffalo should not be favored here. This is a huge overreaction to the Miami injuries and nothing more. The Bills hung around for a while last week at home against New Orleans before getting torched and they were clearly in the game against New England on opening Monday night before losing that one late. That loss actually looked good for a while but seeing how average the Patriots look right now, it isn

**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *100% ANGLE* Tennessee was a play last Sunday and after coming back from a 14-0 deficit to take the lead, the Titans offense shut down and they took their third straight loss to start the season. Being 0-3 is not the way Tennessee envisioned the season to start but the Titans are a play or two away from being 3-0. They were outgained by only 37 yards against the Steelers, all of which came in overtime, and they have actually outgained both Houston and New York in their last two contests. This is definitely the best 0-3 team remaining and it is arguably better than a lot of the 1-2 teams out there. The Jaguars possibly saved their season with a win at Houston last week but I don

**8** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *74% ANGLES* Cleveland is arguably the worst team in the NFL right now and that is what the public is relying on here. The Browns have gotten off to a 0-3 start, they have been outgained in all three games and have scored only one offensive touchdown the entire season. Why wouldn

**8** #1 MNF REPORT IN SEPTEMBER *72% RUN* Carolina played good enough to win last week at Atlanta but it fell short in its fourth quarter comeback. More importantly, Jake Delhomme played good enough to win as he rebounded off his horrific opener which came off his horrific playoff performance against Arizona before that. The Panthers now hit the road again and because of that loss, we get some added line value. A lot actually. Basically the linesmakers are saying that Dallas is about 3.5 to 4 points better than Atlanta and while power rating may show that as well, it is a bold line shift after just one week. The Panthers game plan here should be simple and that is to pound the ball on the ground. First off, even though Delhomme played much better last week, Carolina is not going to ask him to take the game on his shoulders. Second, the Cowboys cannot stop the run. They are allowing 135.5 ypg and 4.8 ypc which is pretty bad and a lot of that damage came against Tampa Bay of all teams. The Panthers fall into a couple of great rushing scenarios as explained further down. Dallas lost in the final seconds last week against the Giants which ruined the opening of its new stadium in front of over 105,000 fans. That is certainly a significant home field advantage and the initial reaction here would be to take the Cowboys in looking for them to bounce back. That is likely what the public is going to do but backing this team right now is a dangerous proposition. Tony Romo had a horrible game last weekend and while he is capable of bouncing back, it is not going to be easy. Also, the defense has played really bad through two weeks and that is a significant factor. Comparing the defenses, we see that Carolina has allowed 33 ppg while Dallas has allowed 27 ppg. But as far as yardage allowed, the Cowboys have allowed a whopping 119.5 more ypg and that is a better indication of what we are looking for. With a defense like that, the backdoor is always wide open. The identity of this Carolina offense is the running game with backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson called 41 passes and only 25 runs against the Falcons. Williams averaged 4.9 ypc and Stewart averaged 7.2 ypc, but the flow of the game wouldn't allow the running backs to be featured like the Panthers would have preferred. The unbalanced play calling is not going to work here and it looks as though the Panthers are aware of that. The two combined for over 2,300 yards last year while punching in 28 touchdowns and that is what needs to be done this season to turn things around. Keeping the ball on the ground is the main key to winning this game for Carolina. The Panthers are 30-10 ATS in their last 40 games when they rush for 125 or more yards while the Cowboys are 7-36 ATS in their last 43 games when they allow 150 or more yards rushing. It is safe to say what will happen here is the Panthers do in fact stay with the gameplan. Two solid situations also fall into Carolina

**7** NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK ***100% RUN*** This game sets up for a lot of points to hit the scoreboard. Granted this is going to be a very public play based on the fact that two top offenses are on the field and it is a nationally televised game. The public loves these to go high scoring and that will be the case here so we aren

**8** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *LATE KICK* This game could not set up any better for San Diego backers. The Chargers are coming off a tough loss last week against the Ravens in a game they should have won but play calling, clock management and other similar factors prevented that. That is what we call a coaching deficiency and Norv Turner fits that bill. This game however will not come down to who is the better coach as I feel they are on an even plane in this one. San Diego will win this one with its players as this is a huge game for the Super Bowl contender that it is being portrayed as once again. A loss here means it will be heading into Pittsburgh at 1-2 and staring 1-3 right in the face after that game. The Chargers have no interest in repeating last season where they had to win out the final four games of the season to make the playoffs. San Diego outgained Baltimore last week by 163 total yards so that loss really stung and wants some payback. Talk about being stung. The Dolphins lost a difficult game last Monday night at home against the Colts. They outgained Indianapolis by just 47 total yards and only lost by four points but the way the game played out is what hurt. Miami won the time of possession by over 30 minutes, had a 27-14 edge in first downs and racked up 239 yards on the ground. That normally should spell a victory but the defense allowed way too many big plays that the Colts took advantage of and that is a problem when coming into San Diego. The Chargers are another quick strike offense that can make the Dolphins pay for sure. The defense is fresh after being on the field for under a quarter but a short week and a trip to the left coast makes up for that as I see a really flat Dolphins team take the field Sunday. Speaking of San Diego payback, the Chargers lost in Miami last season by a touchdown but they were beaten worse than that as the Dolphins outgained them 390-202 including a 167-60 disadvantage in the running game. That is taken personally and the Chargers will be out for revenge there as well. LaDanian Tomlinson is most likely out once again but that has become a common occurrence in San Diego as he has been banged up on numerous occasions in recent seasons. He has played through the pain but it will be an advantage for him to sit out and have Darren Sproles shoulder the load. He had a horrible game against Baltimore last week but most backs do against the Ravens so we should see a bounce back here. Both Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning did a great job of moving the ball though the air and Philip Rivers is arguably even more capable to do so as he has some serious weapons at his disposal. The Dolphins are allowing 9.0 ypa though the air which is 2nd to worst in the league and big plays have come out of it. The Chargers defense has been below average at best and the game plan here is to make Chad Pennington beat them. The last two minutes of the game against the Colts showed that he does not have what it takes to take over a game and win with his arm. He manages a game well and his running game is strong but if playing from behind, the Dolphins are cooked. This is very good home line for San Diego and the early struggles to its 1-1 record have helped out that number. The Chargers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite with the line between 3.5 and 10 while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog with the line between 3.5 and 10. Also, Miami is 0-8 ATS after a loss by six or fewer points over the last three seasons. 8* San Diego Chargers

**10** NFL #1 UNDERDOG REPORT *76% ANGLE* The 49ers are in a very good spot here and getting no respect. San Francisco has started the season 2-0 and both wins have been against division and while that normally would be a red flag, it is not here. The 49ers have been reeling for years now and there is no chance they will be in a letdown or a lookahead mode in the situation they are striving for. San Francisco has a home game against St. Louis up next so it isn

**8** AFC GAME OF THE MONTH **74% ANGLE** Desperate teams can be hit or miss but when put in the right situation, they are great plays. That is the case this week with Tennessee who comes into this game with a 0-2 record and already facing an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs. The Titans lost a tough opener in Pittsburgh in overtime and then lost by a field goal once again against the Texans last week in the final minutes. A couple bounces their way and the Titans could be sitting pretty at 2-0 but instead they are pretty much in a must win situation. Tennessee is at Jacksonville next week followed by games against Indianapolis and New England so the schedule does not ease up meaning a loss here could still give them a chance for recovery. Head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the top coaches in the NFL and it is no surprise he has been with this team what seems like forever. He will have this team ready on Sunday. This is definitely a big game for the Jets as well as they are seeking respect from around the league that they are a dominant team after a 2-0 start. The biggest issue is they are coming off an absolutely huge win over division rival New England and it is hard not to have a letdown after that game. With all of the trash talking that was going on leading up to that game, it showed how important it was for both sides so New York has to be feeling good about things right now. As does quarterback Mark Sanchez who has surprised many, myself included, with his play in his first two NFL career starts. More on him later. This could also be considered a tough sandwich spot coming off that game with New England and having a game at New Orleans on deck followed by two straight division games. Head coach Rex Ryan has put new life into this team but I just do not think it will have it this week. Sanchez is 10th in the NFL with a 91.3 passer rating which is definitely good. However, he has thrown the ball only 53 times which is the second fewest amount of attempts for any starter in the league that has started two games. It is obvious that his plan is about managing and not making mistakes. He is completing 60.4 percent of his passes which is only 20th in the league for qualifies quarterbacks. As has been the plan so far, the Jets are going to want to run the ball but that will be a challenge against the Tennessee defense that is 2nd in the NFL, allowing only 49.5 ypg and an NFL-best 1.9 ypc. Even without Albert Haynesworth clogging up the middle, they have done a great job so far. Last week against Houston, quarterback Matt Schaub had a monster game against the Titans secondary as he threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions while posting a 127.8 passer rating. I do not see Sanchez putting up numbers even close to those this week. The Jets defense is just as solid and it showed last week against New England who failed to get the ball in the endzone. It is tough for teams to put up consecutive efforts like that and Tennessee could have success moving the ball. Chris Johnson had a huge game last week and once he gets past the first line, he is as dangerous as any player in the league with his quickness. Get him going and we will see Kerry Collins have more success. Play on road teams that are coming off a home loss against a division rival in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983. 8* Tennessee Titans

**8** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *EARLY KICK* I am not sold on Atlanta one bit. The Falcons are 2-0 on the season but both wins have come at home and come against teams that are still winless on the season. They easily could have lost last week or at least they were in position to give up the lead to Carolina but the Panthers squandered numerous chances. Atlanta was outgained in that game by 69 yards after outgaining the Dolphins by just 22 yards in its first game so it has hardly been an impressive run to start the season. However, because they are 2-0, we get some line value going against the Falcons in what is their first road test of the season. The travel does play a big role here as going back to the preseason, the Falcons have not left Atlanta since August 21st when it played in St. Louis. That is a significant amount of time for any team to remain at home and it will be a tough adjustment. The Patriots are coming off a loss in New York against the hated Jets and if they had won that game, this line would be a lot higher and would likely not be a play. There is obviously no letdown here and after back-to-back subpar games, New England will be ready to get things back in order. The Patriots could easily be sitting at 0-2 right now as it was fortunate to come away with a win against Buffalo on opening week. It is important to note that New England has outgained its opponents in both of those games, the Bills by 165 yards and the Jets by 45 yards and while wins and losses are what count the most, these yardage advantages show that something is going the right way. The biggest factor not going its way has been redzone efficiency as the Patriots are only 3-8 inside the redzone as they have had to settle for five field goals, four of which have been less than 30 yards. It is time for Tom Brady to get it going and this is precisely the defense to do it against. Despite being undefeated, the weakness of the Falcons is already showing. The defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL and this was the issue last season as the Falcons were 24th in the league in total defense. As was also similar to last season, it was a mixture of the rushing and passing defenses and on the road, Atlanta allowed 24 or more points in six of its nine games. New England will be able to run against this defense and that will be important for Brady to set up the passing game. No one in this secondary will be able to keep up with Randy Moss and the return of Wes Welker is huge for the passing attack even though Julian Edelman has a solid game last week against the Jets. We will see the New England of old offense on display on Sunday. The Patriots will likely need to score a lot because Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense is a solid unit and New England has not exactly been stellar on defense according to everyone. However, I beg to differ as they are actually third in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 265 ypg. This will be the best offense they have seen so far this year but I believe they will be up for the challenge in what is considered a huge game. There is not a better coach than Bill Belichick in these situations as the Patriots are 8-1 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite the nine times he has been faced with this spot. Also, the Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 so the short numbers have been money. Finally, Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. 8* New England Patriots

**10** NFL MONDAY NIGHT REPORT **73% RUN** The two-point victory for the Colts last week was somewhat misleading as they outgained the Jaguars by 137 total yards but struggled to get into the endzone. They turned the ball over on their first two possessions, both in Jacksonville territory including the first one at the four-yard line. Indianapolis also went 0-2 on fourth down and that really could be considered 0-3 as it also missed a field goal late in the third quarter. The opportunities were there but the Colts did not take full advantage like it normally does and that is actually an advantage on our side tonight. Miami was handled in Atlanta in Week One as it managed only one touchdown the entire game and that came with just three minutes remaining. The Dolphins were one of the biggest overachieving teams in 2008 as it won the AFC East and advanced to the playoffs before getting squashed by the Ravens. This all came after a 1-15 season in 2007 so we have to ask the question which Miami team we are seeing in 2009. The Dolphins benefited from a +17 turnover margin last year which was the best in the entire league and that likely is not going to be the case this season especially after losing the turnover battle last week against the Falcons 4-0. Miami is at its best when it is able to run the ball effectively and it was not able to do that last weekend against the Falcons who were 25th in the NFL in rushing defense a year ago. The Colts were average against Jacksonville holding it to 114 yards on 26 carries (4.4 ypc). With safety Bob Sanders out, Indianapolis is not as strong in stopping the run but I still give the advantage to the Colts based on their overall defense that gets a bad rap. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are solid in getting to the quarterback and the secondary is underrated after finishing 6th in the NFL a season ago in passing defense. Opposing quarterbacks has a 78.0 passer rating which was 11th in the league. There is talk of this being a letdown game for Indianapolis but this is a spot that has been very successful over the years. Play on Monday night favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +10.4 ppg. As far as Miami, it is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons while the Colts are 8-1 ATS off a straight up victory as a favorite without covering over the last three seasons. Also, Indianapolis is solid in the spotlight, going 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games. 10* Indianapolis Colts

**8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT *GAME OF THE MONTH* The Giants are coming off a pretty impressive win on Sunday over the Redskins but it was far from their best effort. They outgained Washington 351-272 but the score really should not have been as close as it was. The Redskins scored their first touchdown on a fake field goal while the final touchdown came in garbage time even though Washington was still not totally out of it. Eli Manning played a solid game and any though of his receivers being a weakness were dashed as Steve Smith and Mario Manningham played very well. The running game was a different story however. New York led the NFL last season in rushing with 157.4 ypg and 5.0 ypc but it was held to 103 yards on 31 carries (3.3 ypc). The Redskins were extremely solid against the run last season and the addition of Albert Haynesworth only makes them better so the Giants were no doubt facing a tough test. That will change this weekend. The Cowboys won impressively over Tampa Bay by 13 points on the road but in my opinion, it was far from impressive. The Buccaneers are going to be a contender for one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and they were in this game through the better of three quarters. Tampa Bay put up 450 yards of offense which is extremely solid on that side but pretty horrible for the Cowboys. Dallas cannot be giving up that type of yardage and expect to make a playoff run let alone a run in the NFC East. The Buccaneers rushed for 174 yards on 31 carries (5.6 ypc) and if they can pile up that type of yardage on the ground, the Giants could be in for a monster night. Dallas was middle of the pack against the run last season while the total defense finished 8th in the NFL making that effort against Tampa Bay even more puzzling. Last season, the Giants rushed for 200 yards on 34 carries (5.9 ypc) in the first meeting of this series and that included 117 yards on 17 carries (6.9 ypc) from Brandon Jacobs. In the second meeting in Dallas, the Cowboys held New York to 72 yards on just 17 carries (4.2 ypc) but the key there was that Jacobs did not even play in that game. The Cowboys struggle against the big physical backs. Dallas will be trying to establish the run as well but it will be a challenge. The Giants allowed 85 yards on 21 carries (4.0 ypc) against Washington which is the same ypc average they allowed last season. Expect New York to crown the line of scrimmage and make Tony Romo beat them. He had one of his best games ever against the Buccaneers as he threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns while putting up a 140.6 passer rating. The Tampa Bay defense is to blame as the three Romo

**7** NFL LATE AFTERNOON DIVISIONAL SMASH Seattle is coming off an easy win on opening week against the Rams and while beating St. Louis is not overly impressive, it was huge for the Seahawks. They are coming off a miserable season in 2008 as injuries decimated this team most notably at quarterback where Matt Hasselbeck played only seven games. He looked pretty sharp against the Rams as he completed over 69 percent of his passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw two picks but the positives definitely outweighed the negatives. Rust can definitely be blamed all around as the Seahawks turned it over on three of their first four possessions and settled down after that. It is important for Seattle to keep the momentum going especially after last season where it started 1-5 and could never recover. The Seahawks have tough tests coming up as they host the Bears and then travel to Indianapolis the following week so this is a big game even on top of it being a divisional battle. I am a fan of this 49ers team and head coach Mike Singletary. I think he is the right guy for the job and he can lead this team to great things once everything comes together. I just don

**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR One of the old sayings in the NFL is even truer in these recent days of parity and that is a team is never as good as it was last week and a team is never as bad as it was last week. The latter is the case for the Texans and they are in a fantastic spot here against Tennessee. Houston also finds itself in a spot where the money is coming in against it but the line has actually gone down in places. The reverse line movement is a great way to look at a play in a contrarian way and we surely have that here. Tennessee has had more preparation time and rest for this game but in Week Two that means little. Rest is not a big deal this time of year as players would rather have the extra three days in the second half of the season when they are more banged up and fatigued. As far as preparation, there is not a whole lot to add to the gameplan that they haven

**9** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *88% ANGLES* I used this into in another game writeup and the same holds true here. A team is never as good as it was last week and a team is never as bad as it was last week. Obviously this is directed toward the Carolina Panthers and the latter half of that adage. The Panthers were blown out last week against the Eagles and quarterback Jake Delhomme started the season off right where he ended last year and that was by being a turnover machine. That obviously led to the Panthers downfall last week but Carolina is not as bad as that score indicates. The Panthers took a 7-0 lead on Philadelphia but the Eagles scored a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown to take a ten-point lead and that looked as though it took the air out of Carolina. The Panthers were outgained by only 98 yards in that game as turnovers were the obvious difference. I don

**8** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *100% ANGLES* One team I was very disappointed with in Week One was the Bengals. Not because they lost on a fluke play and did not cover to begin with, but because they produced only seven points at home against the Denver defense. There were chances however. Carson Palmer was intercepted twice but one of those came on the final play of the game so that can be thrown out. His other interception came in the Denver end zone which halted a drive while Bengals running back Kevin Huber fumbled at the Broncos 10-yard line on his only carry of the day. That was 14 points taken away by turnovers so with those and that huge touchdown at the end, Cincinnati could have easily won this game. It did not and that suits us just fine this week as we get line value and the public fading the Bengals once again. I was not overly impressive with Green Bay on Sunday night. They too pulled out a late win in a game it very well could have lost. The defense played solid but was helped out by four Jay Cutler interceptions as he tried to make too many things happen when they weren

**9** NFL MONDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *75% RUN* Putting down double digits is tough in the NFL but I have no interest in backing Buffalo in this matchup. Buffalo clearly had some issues on offense in the preseason and it goes deeper. The Bills changed offensive coordinators less than two weeks ago and will have three offensive linemen making their NFL debuts. This situation is bad enough but when a new offensive system is put into place as well, that makes things even more difficult. Buffalo will be running a no-huddle offense in which timing and execution is everything and it all starts with the offensive line. I don

(477) Chicago Bears at (478) Green Bay Packers 8:15 PM ET **8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *74% RUN* When Chicago got Jay Cutler from the Broncos, I thought that could be the missing piece that will help the Bears get back to the top of the division as well as make a Super Bowl run. I am not so sure anymore so it will have to be a

(471) San Francisco 49ers at (472) Arizona Cardinals 4:15 PM ET **8** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY **86% ANGLES** Arizona certainly made headlines last season as it was about a minute away from becoming Super Bowl Champions. The Cardinals did make a great playoff run but let

(459) Denver Broncos at (460) Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM ET **9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *88% ANGLE* It is an oddity to see the Bengals favored in a regular season game. They were the chalk only four times all of last season and only once in the final 12 games which happened to be the season finale against an even worse Kansas City team. Preseason does not mean a lot in many cases but for teams such as the Bengals, the exhibition season can be pretty important. They went just 2-2 in the preseason but they outgained the opponent in all four games including all four in rushing. That is a significant statistic that can be carried over into the regular season. Cincinnati was hit with a lot of injuries last season, namely to starting quarterback Carson Palmer who missed 11 full games and a half of another. He is also coming off missed time in the preseason so there is some concern of how sharp he is actually going to be come Week One. The Bengals are expected by some to turn things around with the return of Palmer along with a defense that is very underrated after finishing 12th in the NFL a season ago. Offensively, Denver head coach Josh McDaniels hurt the team by getting rid of quarterback Jay Cutler. Kyle Orton is an okay quarterback but he is not the answer here. Let

(463) New York Jets at (464) Houston Texans 1:00 PM ET **7** AFC GAME OF THE WEEK **83% WK1 LY** Once again the Texans are a popular choice to finally make a trip to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. This seems to be the case every year and they have yet to live up to expectations. I am in agreement that this could finally be the year. Houston got off to a horrible start last season as it opened the season 0-4 and simply could not recover. Part of the problem was Hurricane Ike that came roaring through Houston and postponed the Texas home opener against Baltimore. That meant they had to open the season with three straight road games and then came home against Indianapolis for their home opener. On top of it all, quarterback Matt Schaub was hurt and played only 11 games for the second consecutive season. His health will play a big role in the success of Houston this season. The Houston offense should be very potent with Schaub, Andre Johnson at receiver and Steve Slaton at running back. Facing a Jets defense that finished middle of the road in the league last season got even better when defensive end Shaun Ellis and linebacker Calvin Pace, the Jets' top two pass-rushers, were suspended for this game. That is a big boost for the Texans offensive line that is arguably the biggest weakness of the offense. I don

**9** NFL THURSDAY PRIMETIME ***77% RUN*** The 2009 season kicks off with the reigning Super Bowl Champions looking to build their momentum heading into the new campaign. Pittsburgh won a spectacular Super Bowl over the Cardinals last season and it will be in the mix once again. Tennessee, I

***9*** Super Bowl XLIII Winner *59% YTD!* What would this line be if Philadelphia had won last week? The Steelers -3? The Steelers -4? Considering that the Eagles were a lower seed and would have been getting fewer points tells us one big thing and that is this line is based a lot on name and history and not the actual matchup. That gives us line value and a lot of it. The Steelers are favored by almost a touchdown because they have the NFL's best defense and a history that's more familiar to bettors, oddsmakers said. The Cardinals have had two winning seasons since moving from St. Louis in 1988. Who does the public take here? It is an easy answer. I

**8** NFL 75% ATS **BLOWOUT of the Month** Baltimore treated me very well the first two rounds of the playoffs but I think the good fortunes finally run out. Surprisingly, most of the public is backing the Ravens once again, this time at about a 3:2 rate which isn

**10** NFL 79% Championship Rd *TOP PLAY* After watching postgame recaps on Sunday and Monday every sportscaster, expert, analyst or whatever they want to call themselves are going with a

**8** NFL 81.1% Sunday *TOTAL DOMINATOR* I do not understand how this total can be only 2.5 points less than what it was during the regular season meeting when only 21 total points were scored. San Diego has picked up its offense since then but playing defenses such as Oakland and Denver will help an offense do that. If anything, Pittsburgh

**7** NFL 86% Sunday *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* Beating one team on the road is tough in the NFL. Doing it twice in the same season is really tough. Jacksonville did it to Pittsburgh last season so it has been done but that one came in the Wildcard round and the Steelers were without Willie Parker. The Giants have had a week off to rest, heal and get ready for their defending championship run. They certainly are not going to take this spot for granted as last season, they went to Dallas, who was coming off a first round bye, and won. That is a great learning edge.

I went against the Eagles last week simply because it was the first road playoff game in six years and the first one over the last eight games. I was far from impressed with the way they won the game as Minnesota gave them the game more that Philadelphia earned the win. It outgained Minnesota by only 49 total yards and was beaten pretty badly in the running game. If not for a Correll Buckhalter 27-yard run, the Eagles would have finished with a mere 40 yards on the ground. The defense of the Giants is not a step down in class.

The Giants rested their starters in the second half of the final regular season game against Minnesota. Some may say that it was a mistake but I think it would have been a mistake if they had been rested the whole game. Instead of a three-week layoff, the players have just 14 days off which is the norm for teams with a first-round bye. With the Eagles playing a game last week, it gives them the edge as far as continuity goes. However, negating that is the travel aspect two weeks in a row.

The Giants escaped with an overtime win over Carolina to secure the top seed in the NFC. New York is tied for second in the NFL with the Steelers with four wins against teams ranked within the top ten (the Colts were first with five). The one loss came at home to these same Eagles. Besides that and the win over Minnesota, the only other two Philadelphia road wins were at Seattle and San Francisco while tying Cincinnati. The Eagles won

**7** NFL Saturday 92% PRIMETIME *ARZ/CAR* I

**10** Playoff Game of the Year *59% YTD* The action is very evenly split fir this game which is a surprise considering it is the #1 seed against the #6 seed and the line is just a field goal. That line may seem fishy and for that reason, Baltimore is the play. Actually there are more important reasons but this one is spoken of first based on just looking at the lines. The Ravens are coming off an impressive win at Miami last week and they shut a lot of people up about how a rookie quarterback cannot win on the road. Can he do it two weeks in a row?

The Ravens have a very important attribute right now and that is momentum. They have won three straight, six of seven and 10 of their last 12. One of those setbacks was a respectable four-point loss at Pittsburgh while the other was against the Giants in New York where they were outgained by only 78 yards. Baltimore is also 10-2 ATS over this span and it has the small matter of revenge to take care of. Baltimore lost by three points in the first meeting this season despite outgaining the Titans 285-210.

Tennessee enters this game coming off a bye week to help rest some of the nagging injuries that have taken place over the last few weeks. However, it hasn

**9** NFL 82% First Round Game of the Year Everyone is all over the Eagles as they are the biggest public play of the first round. They are definitely hot and are in that lucky five seed spot that the Steelers and Giants have possessed in their Super Bowl runs. However, I am not sold on this team on the road, where they are 3-4-1 including wins over non-playoff teams Seattle and San Francisco. Any team that played to a tie with Cincinnati does not deserve to be a favorite on the road and Philadelphia does not deserve that here.

Minnesota picked up a confidence boosting win last week against the Giants even though it came against reserves for a half. I still believe this is a dangerous team in the playoffs because it does two things well. It runs the well and stops the runs well. Turnovers were a big problem but the majority of those won

**7** NFL Sunday 76.7% SUPREME KNOCKOUT Baltimore was one of the surprises in the league this season and most notably from its offense. The days of Steve McNair and Kyle Boller and a thing of the past as rookie Joe Flacco has taken this team on his shoulders and he has performed like a veteran. He started strong then faltered some with turnovers but since Week 10, he has six touchdowns and just three interceptions. In the first meeting this year, in Miami as well, Flacco threw for 232 yards on 17-23 passing and one touchdown with no picks.

The Dolphins have been a bigger surprise as they went from 1-15 to winning the AFC East. If the Patriots had not lost Tom Brady, we likely would not be seeing the Dolphins here as they were able to sweep New England. It is a great story but this is where it ends. The Dolphins have always been known for their tough defense and this season they are a middle of the pack unit, allowing 329 ypg which is 15th in the league. The Ravens put up 357 total yards, the most production against Miami over the last seven meetings.

While the Dolphins are known for the defense, the Ravens own that category year in and year out and this season is no exception. Baltimore ended the regular season as the 2nd ranked total defense in the NFL, allowing 261.1 ypg. The Ravens finished 3rd in rushing defense, 2nd in passing defense and 3rd in scoring defense so there is not a weakness on that side of the ball. Baltimore allowed 10 points or fewer seven times and 13 points or fewer 11 times.

After finishing 28th in the NFL in total offense a season ago, Miami improved to 12th this season, averaging 345.6 ypg. That is 7th best of the 12 playoff teams so it is relatively average. Quarterback Chad Pennington brought life to the unit and while it has been efficient, it is far from a quick strike offense. The Dolphins finished 21st in the league in scoring, averaging 21.6 ppg and they scored 17 or fewer points in exactly half of their games. Miami was outgained in each of its last three games.

Miami does fall into a very solid revenge situation but most of that is based on the regular season and the fact that the second meeting is on the road. The playoffs are a different animal. Miami has struggled against good rushing teams as against teams that rush for 130 or more ypg, it is 0-2 ATS this season and 2-6 ATS over the last three seasons. Putting two good games together has been a chore as it is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games after allowing fewer than 30 yards rushing. 7* Baltimore Ravens

**8** NFL Saturday 81.8% SUPREME KNOCKOUT The Chargers are catching fire at the right times as they won four straight games to complete a miraculous end of the season run to win the AFC West. While this stretch was impressive, the teams they defeated were not. Wins over Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Denver were all against teams that failed to make the playoffs with three of those teams being within their own weak division. San Diego went 5-1 within the division but just 3-7 outside of it once again proving it weakness.

The Colts were at a point in the season where it looked like they make actually miss the playoffs. Following a loss against Tennessee on a Monday night game, Indianapolis ran off nine consecutive wins to end the season showing that this team is more than capable of making a Super Bowl run. Most impressive is the 6-2 record on the road and they will have to march through the playoffs by adding to that road success. The starters were rested last week which concern some but not me as that is an annual occurrence.

Philip River has been playing with a chip on his shoulder and rightfully so. However, while he would have the quarterback edge in most spots, this is not one of them. Peyton Manning got off to a slow start and it wasn

**8** NFL Saturday 76.8% DARK HORSE DANDY Here we have the Falcons with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback in the playoffs for the first time since 2004-05. Good for the Falcons but being favorites on the road is insane as is the fact that the public is all over them. Atlanta had a solid season as did rookie quarterback Matt Ryan but winning in the playoffs on the road is no easy task. Sure the Giants did it last season but they were 7-1 on the road during the regular season while Atlanta is 4-4 including just 1-3 against teams with a winning record.

Arizona finished the season slow with losses against Minnesota and New England but a win in the final week against the Seahawks was huge. Seattle is horrible but it provided confidence and momentum for a team that will be hosting a playoff game for the first time since 1947. That is certainly something for the home team and the home crowd to get fired up about. The Cardinals went 6-2 at home this season and they have the offense that can beat any team in the league if asked.

Arizona averaged 26.7 ppg which was tied for third best in the NFL. That average jumps to 30.3 ppg at home and Arizona scored 29 or more points in seven games while being held to 14 points in that Vikings game. There is no reason to believe that the Cardinals won

***9*** Sunday Night NFL Total of the Year It is hard to believe that the AFC West is coming down to this final game as Denver looks to avoid losing a three-game lead with three weeks to play. The Chargers were left for dead but now it is the Broncos that are in that spot and the line reflects that. The points are very tempting but the Broncos defense is a mess and that is why I am avoiding Denver here. Laying this many point with the Chargers is something I do not want to get involved in but it is the total where the treasure lies.

I cannot see how either of these defenses is going to stop the opposing offenses. These two put up 77 points in the first meeting in Week Two and now the stop units are in even worse shape yet the total has risen only four points from that first encounter. This has been a high scoring series for the last three years with the exception of one of the meetings last season. We have seen an average of 55.4 ppg scored over the last five meetings and those were with each side having good defenses.

Denver is coming off a game in which Jay Cutler had 359 passing yards and the Broncos had more than 500 yards of total offense. And they still couldn

8* NFL 77.8% SUPREME KNOCKOUT *27-15 Run* The season is over for the Redskins and after last week, it is definitely over. Washington won a huge game over the Eagles and while that meant nothing more than bragging rights. That actually means a lot in the NFC East especially when it produced a sweep of Philadelphia. Now Washington mush pack up and head out to the west coast in a game it could care less about. No team wants to end the season on a bad note but last week

7* MNF Primetime TOP PLAY 12-3-2 (80%) Run The Vikings loss on Sunday gave the Bears some new hope as they now trail Minnesota by just a half-game in the NFC North. It seems to be more of the public will be behind Chicago tonight since the home team is always the popular play. We are past the key number of -3 and this line could steadily rise even more by gametime. It will be in the teens for tonight

**10** NFC Game of the Year **24-12 Run** What was once a show in for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Giants find themselves in a must win situation in order to claim that prize. Back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Cowboys have put New York in a spot it wasn

8* NFL 80% Nonconference Game of the Month Arizona is coming off a very unmotivated effort against the Vikings at home last week and the Cardinals have something to prove this week! They were actually called out in the media and they have taken that and are using it for some motivation to close out the season. Arizona is 3-4 on the road this season with all four of those losses coming on the east coast. While many will use that as a trend to buck the Cardinals again, I will be going against it based on the fact that we will see a big effort to get playoff ready.

The Patriots picked up a big win out west last week in Oakland and they used a lot of energy to gut that one out. Even though it was over from the start, the team was playing for quarterback Matt Cassel who had lost his father during the week. Leading up to the game, it was all about that and Cassel and his teammates came through with that promise. The Patriots are now 9-5 by playing the 29th ranked schedule in the NFL and we catch some value in what is considered a

7* 94.4% AFC Game of the Week *66.7% Run* Why in the world is this game being wagered on? Well for starters, it is still considered a heavy duty rivalry so motivation will be present on both sides but more so with the Bengals sideline. Cincinnati is coming off a rather impressive home win against the Redskins last week but don

**7** NFL Total of the Week **11-1-1 Run** The over is 12-2-1 on Monday nights this season and while a lot of people will blindly bet the over because of this, it is the wring thing to do since those past games mean nothing. However it does do one thing that helps us out greatly. Because the public loves the Monday night overs this season, the linesmakers have no choice but to put this number higher than it should be. The number posted that is less than 40 looks like a gift for a high scoring game but we are not going to see that.

In last week's loss at Tennessee, Ken Dorsey made his first start in three years and his 10th start overall. His career has been very below average as he has a 60.2 passer rating while throwing eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In his 10 starts, his offenses have averaged only 16.5 ppg and the Browns managed only nine points last week against Tennessee. The offense has been stumbling of late making the challenge even tougher for Dorsey as they have averaged only seven ppg over their last three games.

The Eagles have a very solid defense as they are ranked 4th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. The Giants came in last week averaging 29.3 ppg but were held to 14 points and 211 total yards which is over 159 yards less than what they came in averaging. The best part is that Philadelphia is not going to be taking the Browns lightly considering it very well remembers what happened in that Cincinnati game. Philadelphia is allowing 17 ppg at home and if Cleveland gets to double-digits it will be extremely surprising.

The Eagles offense has been extremely up and down this season and I do not see a big effort coming here. The goal here is to get a win and that is meaning a close to the vest game is expected. Philadelphia is going to run the ball and the coaching staff has given some of that away. Head coach Andy Reid said the Browns also have a terrific secondary.

9* Divisional Game of the Year *20-10 Run* This time of the NFL season, it comes down to making/not making the playoffs or playoff positioning. While neither of these teams are working on positioning since Tennessee has all but locked up home field while Houston is not being let in, that angle can be tossed. Next up is motivation. With only three games left, some non-playoff teams are far from motivated in December but with Houston, we are not seeing that and these are the home underdogs you want to grab on to.

Houston still has a shot at a winning record and with games against Oakland and Chicago to close out the season, it is very possible. That is a big deal seeing that the Texans have never had a winning season since starting back the Houston franchise in 2002. The Texans were a sexy playoff pick this season but they caught some bad luck early in the season after playing at Pittsburgh, having a game cancelled then playing at Tennessee and at Jacksonville and then hosting the Colts. They were 0-4 before they knew it.

As far as motivation, what possible motivation can the Titans have in this game? As mentioned, home field advantage is the lone remaining goal and that can be locked up in the next two weeks and with the monster game against Pittsburgh on deck, the Texans may be overlooked here. Tennessee has obviously tore through its opponents but it has played a schedule ranked 25th in the league so it hasn

**7** NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week One can argue that the current fracas between Clinton Portis and head coach Jim Zorn will spell and end to the Redskins season but I believe the exact opposite happens. The two worked out their differences which is fine but most importantly, it showed that the fire is still alive. Portis was complaining about not getting enough touches and playing and that shows how much he wants to win and how much he thinks he can help his team attain that goal.

When confrontations take place on teams it can obviously have two effects. One is that the team becomes divided and there is no hope for success or it can bring a team closer and gets everyone jazzed up to get things going in the right direction. The whole Sean Taylor incident last season brought this team together and acted as a huge boost of unity and while this is not even nearly as devastating or traumatic, it goes along the same lines and the Redskins team saw what it is capable of.

Enough of that. Washington is a game out of the final wild card spot in the NFC and while it doesn

***9*** NFL Thursday Night GOY *11-1 Run*People will be jumping on the home team here simply because of they cold weather factor. A dome team playing in December has no chance or at least that is the myth that is gong through the heads of the public. I beg to differ however. New Orleans has played in Chicago the last two seasons in January and December and despite losing both times, it actually outplayed the Bears in both games. With this game equally important for both sides, I see a similar effort from the Saints only this time it results in a win.

Two years ago, the Saints traveled to Chicago for the NFC Championship and were taken out 39-14. New Orleans actually outgained the Bears 375-340 but was hurt by three fumbles and an interception. Last season, the Saints outgained Chicago 413-275 but came up short on the scoreboard by eight points as turnovers and special teams did New Orleans in yet again. Lack of production in the cold weather is obviously not an issue and the Bears defense is really having some problems.

Chicago is allowing 234.2 ypg through the air this season which is 28th in the NFL and it has not helped matters that the secondary has been dinged up all season long. Cornerback Nathan Vasher is on the IR and his loss is the Saints gain. New Orleans is averaging 310.2 ypg passing which is the best in the NFL while its 8.14 ypa is good for 2nd best in the league. Not playing on the carpet matters none as the Saints are averaging 307 ypg on a grass field while Chicago is allowing a whopping 275.2 ypg passing at home.

We all know the Saints defense has been having problems this season but they are allowing just over 20 more ypg than the Bears and are actually fewer total yards on the road than what the Bears are allowing at home. Chicago is averaging 308 ypg on offense which is close to 100 ypg fewer than what New Orleans is averaging. The overall offense for Chicago is 24th in the NFL and it has been outgained in six of its last eight games and is -17.4 ypg on the year and -50.2 ypg at home in yardage differential.

It is no secret that the Bears will be running the ball to keep the New Orleans offense off the field but the Saints have been decent against the run, allowing 112.8 ypg on the year which is a respectable 20th. Chicago has no passing game of late as it is averaging a mere 156 ypg over the last three games. The weather is going to be cold as expected but nothing out of the ordinary for December. There is no snow in the forecast while winds will be down to about 10-11 mph so there should be no effect on the Saints offense. 9* New Orleans Saints