Sports Picks & Predictions
All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
11-09-17 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -9 | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. With its loss two weeks ago against Miami, North Carolina incurred its seventh defeat of the season assuring that it will not be going to a bowl game and will post its first regular season losing record since 2007. The Tar Heels lost a lot from last season, notably quarterback Mitch Trubisky, and came into the season as the second least experienced team in the ACC and it has showed as the offense has taken a big step backward. After averaging at least 32.3 ppg every year since 2012 when Larry Fedora came in as head coach, they are averaging just 21.3 ppg which is No. 110 in the nation. Defensively, they are allowing nearly 10 more ppg than last season and now it is just a matter of playing out the string. Pittsburgh has not missed the postseason since 2007 and it was looking as though there would be no bowl game this season, but the Panthers have won their last two games to keep hope alive. They are still just 4-5 so they must win two of their last three games and with games remaining against Miami and Virginia Tech, this is a must win and nothing is guaranteed. This game is similar to the Miami game from Tuesday where the Pittsburgh seniors have never defeated North Carolina as they have lost all four meetings the last four years since entering the ACC. That is not just motivation to win, but motivation to win big which is something we need and has an excellent chance of taking place. The Panthers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week while the Tar Heels are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. 10* (118) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Knicks last night and unfortunately, ran into a team that would end up shooting 60 percent from the floor which enabled them to come back from a 15-point deficit. It was the second straight game that the Knicks rallied from a late double-digit deficit as they were down by 19 points against the Pacers on Sunday and this magic is unlikely to continue. New York played five straight home games and has not gone on the road since October 29 and now it must do so playing on no rest. This is the first time the Knicks are playing a back-to-back going from home to the road and going back, the Knicks have lost 12 of their last 16 games when playing with no rest. Orlando has been off since Saturday where it was blown out at home against Boston which was its second straight blowout loss at Amway Center. The Magic opened the season 6-2 including a 3-0 record at home so we feel the last two games have been an aberration more than the norm. the offense was rolling with eight straight 100-point games before putting up just 83 and 88 points the last two games but now faces a below average defense. Orlando players have been stating how big of a game this is as after this, the Magic head out west for a four-game roadtrip while eight of their next 10 games are on the road. The Knicks have failed to cover both road games against winning teams this season while the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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11-08-17 | Toledo v. Ohio +4 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. The MAC East is essentially a two-team race with Akron and Ohio sitting at the top at 4-1 and meeting next week in Akron which makes this game a big one for the Bobcats. They are coming off a win last week against Miami which was their third straight win so they bring positive momentum into this possible MAC Championship preview. The only loss in the conference came against Central Michigan by three points despite them winning the yardage battle with turnovers and special teams miscues being the difference. Toledo has won five straight games and its only loss on the season came against the Miami Hurricanes. After its win over Northern Illinois last week, it separated itself from the rest of the pack and because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Rockets can still lose a game and represent the MAC West in the championship game. Ohio averages 41.2 ppg and Toledo averages 39 ppg and these are the highest-scoring teams in the league and have comparable defenses, as the Bobcats allow 25.7 ppg and the Rockets allow 24.4 ppg. Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside has passed for 2,656 yards 19 TD/2 INT. The Bobcats Nathan Rourke has been special as well, passing for 1,504 yards, 13 TD/3 INT, and rushing for 16 touchdowns so these two are also very comparable. They have played similar strength of schedules so when everything lines up like this, the underdog is worthy of a long look, especially a home underdog. The line has come down from opening but we are still over the key number of three as of Tuesday afternoon. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (108) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The Sixers have turned their season around with four straight wins after a 1-4 start and this is no doubt a team on the rise. Ben Simmons is a future star in this league as he is averaging close to a triple double while Joel Embiid is a horse underneath. Embiid will be out tonight as he is resting, and this is just the second game he has missed this season, the first resulting in a 34-poinbt loss at Toronto. In addition to the four straight wins, the Sixers have covered their last six games including all three on the road that were also straight up victories. It has been an average start to the season for Utah as it is 5-5 and the venue has played an important role as the home team is 9-1 in its 10 games. The Jazz have dropped two straight games including a 27-point loss in their last game at Houston and prior to that, it was a nine-point home loss against Toronto. The offensive cohesion has been an issue as point guard Ricky Rubio is still trying to get the chemistry going but it has been progressing of late as they have scored 100 or more points in four straight games. Now Utah faces a Sixers team that is allowing opposing teams to average 108.6 ppg so the Jazz can keep the offense rolling and going back, they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (714) Utah Jazz |
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11-07-17 | Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI REDHAWKS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. It is now or never for the RedHawks as they are now 3-6 and must won out to get back to a bowl game. They are coming off a loss at Ohio last week and despite winning the yardage battle in their last four games, they have gone just 1-3 over this stretch. Getting to six wins is very doable for Miami as it hosts Eastern Michigan next week and concludes the regular season at Ball St., so all its difficult games are out of the way. The RedHawks are +27 ypg on the season in yardage differential and they certainly know what is at stake tonight. Akron is the biggest fraud in the MAC as its 5-4 is as deceiving as it gets. The Zips go into their game at Miami ranked 10th in the 12-team Mid-American Conference in scoring, 11th in total and rushing offense, average time of possession and total defense and last in passing defense, field-goal percentage and punt-return average. They have been outgained in seven of eight games against FBS teams and the only game they won the yardage battle came against 2-7 Ball St. and that was by only seven yards. The last two wins for Akron were by a point each despite getting outgained by 211 and 87 yards in those games so it is hard to believe the Zips cane become bowl eligible with one more win. The Miami seniors have never defeated Akron including a 22-pont loss last season so there will be extra motivation tonight although that really is not needed. The RedHawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the Zips are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (102) Miami RedHawks |
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11-07-17 | Hornets +1 v. Knicks | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Knicks have been one of the big surprises in the NBA this season as they are off to a 5-4 start with wins in five of their last six games after opening 0-3. We are not sure of this team yet as it has been a one man show during this stretch as Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 32.7 ppg during this recent six-game stretch. Enes Kanter has been a good addition at center but after that, it is a bunch of role players with the majority that are having trouble shooting the ball. This is only the third time New York has been favored this season with the first two coming against Brooklyn and Phoenix and Charlotte is much better than those two teams. The Hornets have lost two straight games after a three-game winning streak and the two recent losses came against Minnesota and San Antonio. They are just 1-4 on the road but the other two losses came at Detroit which was playing its first game in its new downtown arena and the other came at Milwaukee. Charlotte has played the No. 6 ranked schedule in the NBA with eight of 10 games coming against top 16 teams, where the Knicks are not. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Knicks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (709) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-07-17 | Pelicans v. Pacers -1 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Indiana was riding high with a three-game winning including a win at Cleveland but failed to keep the momentum going as it lost its next two games in Philadelphia and New York. Both of those teams have been playing well though but are definitely overachieving on a season level so now the Pacers need to take care of business at home before they hit the road for two more games. Indiana is 3-1 at home and it has gotten an offensive boost from Victor Oladipo and has Myles Turner back who missed seven games with a neck injury. New Orleans has won two straight games, both coming on the road at Dallas and Chicago which are two of the three worst teams in the league. The Pelicans are 5-5 overall and while they also possess a win over Cleveland, the four other wins have come against teams that will not be tasting the playoffs this season. With the recent opposite runs and the Western Conference vs. the Eastern Conference, we are catching a short number with Indiana. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record while the Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. While it is too early in the season to talk about must win games, but this is a very important early season game for the Pacers. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime play. The Packers have dropped two straight games, one with Brett Hundley taking over for Arron Rodgers and the other with Hundley starting for Rodgers. Green Bay now hopes to remain over .500 and keep pace with the Vikings in the NFC North and are once again catching points at home. We played on the Packers two weeks ago when they faced the Saints and a late touchdown by New Orleans prevented the cover. They are in a good spot this week as they are coming off their bye week and while that means not a ton more practice time for Hundley, any additional amount is important as is the added preparation time. Detroit is on a similar run as it has lost three straight games including a home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Now the Lions go from the rare situation of being a home underdog to a road favorite which is an aggressive move. This is not a good role they are in as going back to 2013 and not counting Week 17 when starters have rested, Detroit is 0-6 ATS as road favorites, losing five of those games outright. Green Bay has been favored by six points or more in every home series meeting since 2012 so the linesmakers have adjusted the number by eight points with the Rodgers absence and that is too big of a move even what his presence means to the team. Going back, the Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record while the Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (474) Green Bay Packers |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
This line has been fluctuating all week and it is now finally settling in as the Ezekiel Elliott news has become official that he will be able to suit up this weekend as his suspension has been delayed yet again. Dallas has won two straight games on the road and it will be out to snap a two-game losing streak at home where it lost to Green Bay by four points and Los Angeles by five points. The Cowboys won the yardage battle in all four of these games, so they are playing at a high level as they try to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. The offense is firing on all cylinders as they have averaged 33.5 ppg over this four-game stretch and they can keep that going this week in facing the No. 30 ranked defense in the NFL. Overall, Dallas is ranked No. 8 in offense and No. 5 in scoring offense. Kansas City rebounded from a two-game slide with a win over Denver last Monday and while it sounds like a broken record, they were outgained once again, making it three straight games they have been outyarded. On the season, Kansas City is getting outgained by 15 ypg which is not much but a 6-2 team that is getting outgained is a concern which includes three wins where they were outyarded. Dallas meanwhile is outgaining opponents by 45 ypg and it has won the yardage battle in all three home games. Coming off a pair of divisional games and with a bye on deck puts the Chiefs in a tough spot. Additionally, it is a short week for the Chiefs and they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (470) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers +2.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
The Cardinals are playing their first game with Drew Stanton as the starting quarterback after Carson Palmer was lost for the season in a 33-0 loss to the Rams in London. Arizona did have an advantage of having its bye week to get Stanton working with the first team but because of the new CBA, it did not amount to much more practice time. The Cardinals are now 3-4 on the season and they trail the Seahawks and Rams by two games, so things are looking bleak at this point. Last season, the Cardinals were one of only two teams in the NFL, New England being the other, that finished in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. This season, they are ranked No. 16 and No. 24 in total offense and defense respectively showing how much they have fallen. The 49ers have fallen as well as after a 2-14 season last year, they are off to the first 0-8 start in franchise history which says a lot as there have been some lean years in San Francisco. They have played better than the record shows as they have five losses by three points or less and coming off a pair of blowout losses against two elite teams puts them in a great spot returning home. San Francisco will also be out for some payback following an overtime loss in Arizona last month as they took a lead with a field goal but allowed a Palmer touchdown pass with just 32 second left in the extra session. That was the fifth straight win for Arizona in this series, but this is the most watered-down Cardinals team over this stretch. The Cardinals are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the 49ers have covered six straight divisional games. 10* (466) San Francisco 49ers |
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11-05-17 | Redskins +8 v. Seahawks | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
The Seahawks were involved in an epic game last week against Houston as they pulled out a 41-38 win with a touchdown pass with just 21 seconds remaining. That was just their third lead in the game and they were outrushed for the fourth time in seven games. Seattle is tied with Los Angeles atop the NFC West thanks to four straight wins and while it is 3-0 at home, two of those victories were by three points and the only blowout win came against 2-6 Indianapolis which was not decided until the fourth quarter. The typically stingy defense has been exposed on occasion this season and it comes in ranked No. 17 in the NFL while now facing another offense that can take advantage. Additionally, Seattle is almost certain to be without Safety Earl Thomas. Washington has dropped two straight games to fall to 3-4 and it cannot afford many more slipups as it is a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot with six other teams battling for the final spot. The Redskins have failed to cover their last four games which has inflated this line that has gone over a touchdown in some places. This game will add to the difficult schedule the Redskins have endured thus far which is currently No. 5 in the league compared to the Seahawks which have played the No. 29 schedule in the NFL. While the Seattle defense has been underachieving, the Washington defense has been a solid unit as it is ranked No. 12 in the league overall and it has good balance, being ranked No. 13 both against the rush and the pass. The Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games while the Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. 10* (467) Washington Redskins |
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11-05-17 | Heat v. Clippers -5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
After a 4-0 start to the season, the Clippers have dropped three of their last four games and are a game behind the Warriors in the Pacific Division. They are coming off a 113-104 loss against Memphis yesterday afternoon and this will be their first back-to-back of the season. This is a big game after that loss as up next for the Clippers, eight of nine on the road, starting with a couple of Western Conference heavyweights in San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Miami fell to 3-5 on the season after a loss at Denver on Friday and this is a team that lacks cohesiveness. There already have been four lineups over these first eight games, with only one used for as many as three and that grouping 0-3. Friday night, it added up to a lack of continuity, the Heat closing with 22 turnovers, now with 19 or more in four of the past six games. Miami began this season by scoring 100 or more points in three of four games, but has since been held to 97 or fewer in three of four, losing three of those games. The Clippers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season against teams with losing records while Miami is 1-3 ATS against teams with winning records while going 0-3-1 ATS in its four games following a loss. 10* (704) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-05-17 | Broncos +8 v. Eagles | Top | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Eagles have won six straight games and have a one game lead over Minnesota for the best record in the NFC. They have covered five straight games as well, but they are in a difficult scheduling spot here with this being their third straight home game. Some people may seem that as an advantage, but it is not especially coming off consecutive wins in the first two as the third game can make a team lethargic as well as inflate lines. We expect the former to happen and the latter has happened with this number tipping over a touchdown. Not to mention the fact that Philadelphia has a bye next week which is another sign of a possible letdown. Denver meanwhile has lost three straight games, the last two coming on the road making this its third straight road game which is a good thing here. The Broncos will have a sense of urgency after losing to the Chargers and Chiefs on the road and because of the three straight losses, people are writing them off as being a fraud. Denver is making a change at quarterback and while it is Brock Osweiler, a change can only be a good thing at this point as the Broncos have scored only 29 points during their losing streak. The defense continues to hold its own however and gives the team a chance to win and that is proven by the fact Denver has outgained every opponent this season, the only team in the NFL that can say that. The Broncos are outgaining opponents by over 80 ypg compared to 44.7 ypg for the Eagles and Denver has played the harder schedule, No. 10 versus No. 26 for Philadelphia. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record while the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 10* (451) Denver Broncos |
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11-04-17 | Central Florida v. SMU +14.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. SMU is going bowling for the first time since 2012 following its win over Tulsa last week as the turnaround by head coach Chad Morris is reaching its peak. The Mustangs have only two losses this season, one against TCU in a game they were leading late in the first half and the other against Houston on the road despite winning the yardage battle by 81 yards. They are 5-0 at home on the season and this will be the biggest test without a doubt, but the line is out of whack based on the opposition. The Mustangs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. UCF has been one of the top betting teams this season as it is 5-1-1 ATS and has yet to lose a cover against a team from the FBS as they have been blowing teams out. The Knights did have a push against Navy as they won by 10 points in what was the least dominated game of the season. Now they are on the road again and favored by more points against what we feel is a better team as the adjustments continue to be made to try and defer the betting public. UCF has the top scoring offense in the country, but they have played an extremely weak schedule and SMU is not far behind as it is ranked No. 9 in total offense and scoring offense. This total is set at 75 so offensive fireworks are expected and that favors the underdog when both teams are equal since the Mustangs can keep up. UCF is No. 18 in the first edition of the CFP Rankings showing how the non-quality wins have not been worth much. 10* (376) SMU Mustangs |
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11-04-17 | Kings +9.5 v. Pistons | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
After a pair of covers to open the season, Sacramento has dropped six straight games against the number including three straight blowout losses which makes this the perfect time to back them again. We had them the last two games and the difference in both was three-point shooting as Indiana outscored them 36-6 and Boston outscored them 51-18. They get a break here though as Detroit is not a good shooting team from long range and it is totally overvalued. The Pistons are coming off a win last night against the Bucks which was their fourth win in five games including impressive victories over the Warriors and Clippers. However, losses against the Sixers and Lakers show that this team is far from legit and it takes another step down tonight which has been an issue. Going back, the Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Detroit has been favored by nine or more points only once in the last two years and that resulted in a loss against the Sixers 97-79 last December. This is a favorable spot for the Kings which return home after this game, so the effort will be there. 10* (503) Sacramento Kings |
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11-04-17 | South Carolina +23.5 v. Georgia | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS for our SEC Game of the Year. South Carolina became bowl eligible with its win over Vanderbilt last week, its third straight victory to improve to 6-2 on the season. The Gamecocks lost to Texas A&M by a touchdown and lost to Kentucky despite winning the yardage battle and are guaranteed a bowl game for a second straight season following a miserable 3-9 record in 2015 when it went through two coaches. Will Muschamp is doing a great job in his second season and he will have his team ready in wanting to defeat his alma mater where he played from 1991-1994. South Carolina is 4-0-1 ATS as an underdog this season and is by far catching its biggest number of the season. Georgia plays its first game at the No. 1 team in the CFP Rankings, so it could be feeling the pressure. The Bulldogs have covered six of seven games against FBS opponents, so they have been steamrolling teams, but this will be a test. In their last home game, they were favored by 28.5 points against Missouri which is 3-5 including 0-4 in the SEC and now Georgia is favored by only 4.5 points less against a team that is much better than what that variance is saying. The Bulldogs know every game counts but coming off a win over rival Florida with a game against rival Auburn on deck puts them in a tough spot because getting up for three straight games is tough. They are coming off a huge defensive effort, but the Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. This is the best defense Georgia has seen in six weeks so look for the offense to not be as efficient. 10* (371) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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11-04-17 | Ohio State v. Iowa +18 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show |
Ohio St. is coming off a comeback for the ages as it rallied late to take out Penn St. and get right back into the Big Ten race and CFP chase. The Buckeyes did struggle to move the ball with consistency until their final two drives and that was only their second victory of the season against a team with a winning record, Army being the other. Ohio St. has outgained every opponent since its loss to Oklahoma by at least 240 yards, so they are playing at a high level but coming off that victory puts the Buckeyes in a very vulnerable spot, especially going on the road with a bulls-eye on its back. The Big Ten East could come down to next week should Michigan St. win since Ohio St. hosts the Spartans next Saturday. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Iowa bounced back last week with a win over Minnesota following an overtime loss at northwestern the previous week. The Hawkeyes are 5-3 with all three losses by a touchdown or less including a two-point loss to Penn St. at home despite getting outgained by 306 yards. They have been outgained most of the time this season but because of ball control, they are keeping games close so while they rarely blow teams out, they do not get blown out either. The defense allowed 18.8 ppg last season and they have improved this season, allowing 17.4 ppg which is No. 12 in the nation. Iowa is 14-7-2 as a home dog under head coach Kirk Ferentz including 9-4 ATS when getting more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (336) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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11-04-17 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia +10 | Top | 36-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
The Cavaliers have killed us the last two weeks as they got thumped by Boston College both on the field and on the scoreboard and last week, they outplayed Pittsburgh but ended up 1-5 on fourth down and had a punt returned against them for a touchdown. Now that they have lost two in a row, no one will want to touch them, but we will be backing them here as the line is overinflated. Virginia needs one win to become bowl eligible and is catching Georgia Tech at a very good time to get it done here and it might have to. The Cavaliers remaining schedule after this is brutal with games against Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech so the urgency will be seen on Saturday. We played against Georgia Tech last week and we had the cover lined up, but the Yellow Jackets scored a late touchdown to grab the push. Now they are playing their third road game over their last four games and despite getting outgained by 200 and 198 yards in those first two road games, they go from road underdogs both times to a double-digit road favorite. It was the third loss for Georgia Tech last week and those are sometimes the worst as it takes them out of any major bowl consideration and while knowing regular season double-digit wins will not be achieved for a third straight season. The offense was shut down last week and while the defense will be less resistant this week, the Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The line may say Virginia cannot win but it certainly can and going back, it is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games as home dog. 10* (348) Virginia Cavaliers |
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11-04-17 | Rice v. UAB -10.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
This is one of the best college football stories that not many have heard yet. UAB gave up football after the 2014 season as there was no money or success as the Blazers went through the motions for year, having gone to only one bowl game in the history of the program in 2004. The football program was reinstated last year although they did not put a team on the field until this season and it has been a huge success. A loss at Ball St. by 20 was did not look good but UAB outgained the Cardinals by 119 total yards but was undone by turnovers and special teams. The Blazers lost at North Texas by only three points and lost at Charlotte by a point in overtime to account for their only other losses. With the victory at Southern Mississippi last week, UAB is a win away from bowl eligibility and after finishing 6-6 in 2014 and not getting an invite, a 6-6 finish this year will guarantee them an invite. One team that will not be bowling this year is Rice. The Owls lost at Louisiana Tech last week to fall to 1-7 and be officially eliminated from the postseason. This was a surprise to many as the Owls were expected to bounce back from an injury plagued season in 2016 where they went 3-9 but that has not been the case. It has been a tough run as Rice is 5-20 over its last 25 games dating back to midway of the 2015 season. While Rice has seen several starters return in recent weeks, the injury bug has crept back as leading rusher Emmanuel Esukpa is expected to be out under concussion protocol. The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (396) UAB Blazers |
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11-04-17 | Penn State v. Michigan State +9.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Michigan St. has been good to us this season as the Spartans have covered on three different occasions and are now in one of their best spots on the season. They are coming off a loss at Northwestern last week in overtime despite outgaining the Wildcats by 108 total yards. While that was a tough loss, Michigan St. is still in contention for the Big Ten Championship as a win here and a win over Ohio St. next week puts them in first place alone with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. The offense remains inconsistent, but the Spartans defense is underrated as it is No. 8 in the nation and they allowed more than 17 points in regulation only twice in eight games. While the meeting last season was meaningless, Michigan St. has not forgotten the 45-12 loss last year in the season finale, its worst loss of the season. The Spartans have covered seven of their last eight home games. Penn St. is coming off an epic collapse last week as it blew an 11-point lead with less than five minutes remaining and likely took away at a chance in the CFP. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 7 and will need some help to get back into contention but it is not looking good and the loss last week was deflating which makes this bounce back game a challenge. Being favored on the road here is not a surprise but being favored by this much is a surprise and Michigan St. has thrived by going 5-0 ATS as a home underdog since 2010. Additionally, the Nittany Lions are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. 10* (416) Michigan St. Spartans |
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11-04-17 | Wisconsin v. Indiana +14 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. It has been a tough season for Indiana but not because it has played bad. The Hoosiers stayed with Ohio St. for a half in their season opener and their last three losses have been brutal. They lost to Michigan in overtime, they were leading Michigan St. for most of the game two weeks ago and last week, they lost by three points at Maryland in a game they led for most of it and outgained the Terrapins by 138 yards. Indiana is now 3-5 so it must win three of its last four games to become bowl eligible and while the last three games are all winnable, this one would go a long way. The quarterback situation is up in the air as Peyton Ramsey is questionable but Richard Lagow has played a bunch and has comparable numbers based on ratio. The Hoosiers are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record. Wisconsin is No. 9 in the first CFP Rankings and while it feels disrespected, this is where it deserves to be. The Badgers have played absolutely no one as their best win came against Northwestern as their overall schedule is the weakest in the Big Ten. They are coming off a 14-point win at Illinois which is the lowest ranked team in the conference and while the defense has been shutting all teams down, their own offense will be facing a very unrated defense as Indiana is No. 6 in the conference in yppl allowed. Wisconsin has dominated this series with nine straight wins and four straight covers, but this is the first meeting since 2013 when Indiana was horrible. The outright upset would not shock many people. 10* (368) Indiana Hoosiers |
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
We lost with the Spurs last night as San Antonio had the game in control as it built a 19-point lead, but the Warriors went on one of their patented runs to win by 20 points. San Antonio has now lost four straight games, and this is the first time the Spurs have lost four games in a row since February 2015. Last year, the Spurs didn't suffer their fourth loss until the 18th game so it is clear that they are not the typical Spurs team we are accustomed to. This is being taken into consideration with the line however as they are a short favorite tonight, and this is the lowest they have been favored by during their 10-game home winning streak against Charlotte. The Hornets meanwhile have won three straight games including a win over Milwaukee in their last game as the offense kept it going by scoring a season high 126 points. This sounds like bad news for San Antonio as its typical strong defense has been anything but during this losing skid, but we figure both revert to the mean. Charlotte has just one road win on the season and has covered only one time in its last six road games going back to last season. With the Spurs being as bad as they have been defensively over the last few games, a strong showing on the glass could go a long way in quelling the ills that have cost the Spurs on the defensive end over the last four games. 10* (714) San Antonio Spurs |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 10 m | Show |
It has been a huge turnaround for Florida Atlantic as after a 1-3 start, it has won four straight games and sits in first place in the C-USA East Division. The Owls have won all four of these games by at least 14 points and while they dominated two of those on the stats sheet, they were outgained by Middle Tennessee St. and Western Kentucky, so the results have been mixed. The mix of Lane Kiffin and Kendal Briles has woken up an offense that struggled the first couple games, but things will not be as easy on Friday. They are laying a big number this week against what many still consider the best team in the conference and a preseason favorite coming in. Marshall is coming off a clunker as it lost to Florida International last week by 11 points as a 14.5-point favorite as it was clearly not focused. The Thundering Herd lost the turnover battle 3-0 and fell behind 35-7 before trying to make a charge. They outgained the Panthers by 104 total yards, so it was a game they should have had but there could have been a lookahead to this one. Marshall has outgained each of its last six opponents thanks to a defense that has led the way as it is ranked No. 24 in total defense and No. 15 in scoring defense. The Owls meanwhile has a defense that is ranked No. 94 overall and this time of year is when the defenses tend to rule the games, especially of meaning like this. A win would leapfrog the Thundering Herd over the Owls and would likely control their own destiny with FAU and FIU still having to play each other. Going back, the Herd are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while the Owls are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. 10*(317) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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11-02-17 | Idaho +18 v. Troy | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the IDAHO VANDALS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Once Idaho found out it was going to be relegated to the FCS starting 2018, the team made decided to try and go out in a big way. Last season, the Vandals went 9-4 including a bowl win over Colorado St. and they were going for a repeat this season in their final year as an FBS member. It has not been a great season as they are 3-5 but most of those losses have been very close, and they are getting a monster number here and it is actually the biggest of the season. Idaho needs three wins to become bowl eligible and even though the last three games are all winnable, two are on the road so an upset here would go a long way. That is why we will see a full out effort from the Vandals. Troy is a game out of first place in the Sun Belt Conference behind Arkansas St. and Appalachian St. so there is plenty of motivation for the Trojans as well. They became bowl eligible with a win last week against Georgia Southern, but they again failed to cover a big number and are now 2-5-1 ATS on the season including a 1-5 ATS record as a favorite. The victory over LSU has skewed their numbers as the public has not forgotten that victory. Additionally, they have failed to cover a game at home in four chances as this is due to being overvalued and going back, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Idaho defense has had its struggles in some areas, but forcing offenses into negative plays is not one as the Vandals have registered 58 tackles for loss. As a comparison, the Troy defense which is ranked No. 21 in the country, has generated 61 tackles for loss so a solid effort from the Idaho stop unit could play a big role in the cover here. 10* (315) Idaho Vandals |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. Buffalo is the talk of the NFL right now as it is 5-2 which is tied for its best start since 1999 and the playoffs are looking realistic in what has turned into a weak AFC. The Bills bolstered their offense right at the trade deadline with the acquisition of Kelvin Benjamin from Carolina which shows that they are taking this good start for real. They are road favorites this week because of the perceived opponent and not because they have succeeded much on the road as they are 1-2 with the win being over Atlanta. On paper, that looks like a great victory, but the Falcons are struggling right now. Overall, the Bills have been outgained in their last six games, so they have been fortunate along the way. The Jets have been playing well despite three straight losses as those have come by an average of five ppg which came after a surprising three-game winning streak. New York lost the first meeting in Buffalo by nine points as it was outgained 408-214 so while the game itself was not close, it was the first game of the season and the revamped roster has not played together but those players are now in sync which has resulted in a run of competitive games. Part of the reason for success by Buffalo is that it leads the NFL in turnover margin at +14 with its 3 giveaways the fewest and 17 takeaways tied for the most. This cannot last, and it has skewed its numbers as it is No. in scoring defense but just No. 17 in total defense while sitting only No. 25 in total offense. The public will be on the Bills, but we will take the live home dog. 10* (308) New York Jets |
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11-02-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The Spurs opened the season 4-0 including a win at Miami to open a four-game roadtrip but it did not end well as they dropped the final three games including a pair of blowout losses against Orlando and Boston. The offense has been nowhere to be found as San Antonio has averaged just 91.7 ppg after putting up an average of 103 ppg during the four-game winning streak. The Spurs clearly miss Kawhi Leonard who has yet to play this season and since he went down in the Western Conference Finals last season, they are 4-7 without him counting the game he went down when they were outscored by 27 points. San Antonio will be very aggressive and want nothing more than to avenge that four-game sweep last May. Golden St. is coming off a win against the Clippers on Monday which was its best and most complete game of the season. Statistically, the Warriors remain the highest-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 121 ppg, six points better than the past two seasons. However, opponents are averaging 114.1 ppg which is 10 points more than last season, so the Spurs can get out of that offensive funk. LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up after a poor start in San Antonio as he is averaging 23.6 ppg and 8.4 rpg while shooting almost 50 percent from the floor. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS this season after a win and have just one cover against a team with a winning record. 10* (502) San Antonio Spurs |
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11-01-17 | Kings +13 v. Celtics | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Kings fell flat last night as they lost in Indiana by 18 points in a game they never led and trailed by as many as 28. The game itself should have been closer as Sacramento and Indiana shot nearly identical from the floor but the Kings were just 2-14 from long range while the Pacers were 12-29 so that was clearly the difference. The Kings look to bounce back in a hurry as this will be their second back-to-back and while they lost the second game the first time around, that followed a win the previous night. Sacramento is on a 0-5 ATS run which is one streak to fade and the Celtics are on a perfect 5-0 ATS which gives us another significant streak to go against. Boston has won all five of those games outright after a 0-2 and this includes an impressive home win over San Antonio in its last game and there is a game at Oklahoma City on deck which puts them in a tough spot that will be difficult to get up for. This has been a problem in the past as the Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. the new look Celtics seem to be coming together now but are now laying their biggest number of the season, six and a half points higher than their previous high. 10* (709) Sacramento Kings |
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Milwaukee fell to 4-3 with a loss last night against Oklahoma City and all three of those losses have come against the top teams in the league with the other two coming against Boston and Cleveland. The Bucks have won both road games this year and while the win over Atlanta means little, a win over the Celtics was solid. Milwaukee won the first meeting at home by nine points as a seven-point favorite and now it is getting 3.5 points as of Monday morning which is a 10.5-point swing which is too much as the typical line swing based on venue switch is six points. Charlotte has won and covered two straight games to make it a similar 4-3 record overall. The Hornets have been one of the most inconsistent offensive teams as they have averaged 92.3 ppg in three losses while averaging 110.8 ppg in their four wins. The Bucks defense has not been great but has shown flashes and after a bad effort last night, the Milwaukee defense goes after it tonight. Going back, the Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games playing with no rest while the Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (703) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-01-17 | Pacers v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland has had some head scratching losses over the years since LeBron James returned but the current run the Cavaliers are on is the worst we have witnessed. They have lost three straight games against three teams that were not even close to making the playoffs last season. A pair of road losses at Brooklyn and New Orleans was bad enough but coming home and losing to the Knicks by 19 points was inexcusable. With two days off to stew over this run, Cleveland will be out to make up for it all in one game. The Pacers won last night as we went against them as they picked up their second straight win to move over .500 for the first time since a season opening win over Brooklyn. This is already the third back-to-back for Indiana which is a significant amount as the season started just two weeks ago and the Pacers lost the second game of the first two. The schedule does them no favors here as they are catching the Cavaliers at the exact wrong time. Since a win and cover at Milwaukee, the Cavaliers have dropped five straight against the number and that is a streak we go against here as they can run this one up as much as they want. 10* (708) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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10-31-17 | Miami-OH +9.5 v. Ohio | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI REDHAWKS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Miami snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Buffalo last week to move to 3-5 on the season including 2-2 in the MAC. The RedHawks have played better than the record shows however as they had one bad game at Notre Dame and have outgained six of the other seven opponents. The lone exception was a game against Cincinnati where they were outgained by 70 yards but still should have won the game as they were picked off with a minute left which was returned for a touchdown. Providing the winning margin for the Bearcats. The last two losses were tough as they came against two of the worst teams in the conference despite winning the yardage battle in both. The game against the Bobcats is the RedHawks first midweek road game in the four seasons for Miami so this is the first chance in a long time to relish in the national spotlight. Ohio has won two straight games following a loss against Central Michigan and is currently sitting in second place in the MAC East, a half-game behind Akron and a game ahead of Miami. RedHawks quarterback Gus Ragland, out with a leg injury, has missed last two games but with a 10-day break since the Buffalo game, Ragland might be able to suit up on Tuesday which is a huge boost for the offense. Ragland has 12 touchdowns and four interceptions for an average of 233 passing ypg this season. Going back, the Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points while the RedHawks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (303) Miami RedHawks |
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10-31-17 | Kings +5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Indiana finds itself in a very difficult spot on Tuesday as a home win over San Antonio on Sunday pushed its record to 3-3 including 2-1 at home. That victory puts the Pacers in a prime letdown situation after beating one of the best teams in the NBA but on top of that, this is the first game of a back-to-back as they travel to Cleveland tomorrow night. Indiana is averaging over 111 ppg but that average is skewed by 130-point and 140-point games against Minnesota and Brooklyn respectively, two of the faster paced teams in the NBA. The Pacers will be slowed down tonight as Sacramento is ranked No. 26 in pace and the Kings want nothing to do with a shootout. They have lost four straight games after a 1-1 start and the losses have been ugly not to sugarcoat it. Sacramento lost badly to Denver but that was after its win, lost at Phoenix but that was the Suns first game with their new coach and lost to New Orleans where DeMarcus Cousins returned and went off. The most recent loss came at home on Sunday as the Kings never led and fell behind by as many as 37 points, so we can expect an all-out effort tonight. The Kings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one day of rest while the Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Western Conference. 10* (501) Sacramento Kings |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Primetime play. The Chiefs and Broncos are both riding two-game losing streaks and Kansas City can take a 2.5-game lead in the division at the halfway point with a victory. That being said, this is a bigger game for the Broncos as pulling to within a half game would keep them around as a loss could potentially send them packing. The offense is the obvious concern as Denver was shutout last week for the first time 25 years and it has managed only one touchdown in the last 11 quarters. The Broncos must get their running game going which was one of the best through four games but has taken a step back over the last two contests. The good news is that only four teams give up more yards per carry than the 4.7 surrendered by the Chiefs and Jamaal Charles should have a little extra in the tank in his return to Kansas City. In 50 possessions over their last four games, the Broncos have scored just three touchdowns and made seven field goals. They have also missed three field goal attempts, lost three fumbles, turned the ball over on downs five times and thrown five interceptions to go with 20 punts and five instances where time ran out on them. Inconsistent to say the least but facing a weak defense will help. The Denver defense will get a boost with the return of outside linebacker Shane Ray who has missed the first six games of the season after wrist surgery. The Broncos give up just 71.8 ypg on the ground which is the best in the league and their 3.0 ypc allowed is also tops in the NFL. Additionally, they have yet to give up a rushing touchdown. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game while the Broncos are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up loss. 10* (273) Denver Broncos |
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10-30-17 | 76ers v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is the second meeting of the season between Houston and Philadelphia with the Rockets taking the first meeting. They failed to cover for us however as they won by a point, but we will be backing them again as they head home in a very similar situation. Houston is coming off a loss at Memphis on Saturday which was its second loss of the season, both coming against the Grizzlies. While the Rockets were great after a loss last season, they were untouchable coming off a loss when scoring 103 or fewer points as they followed those games up with a perfect 9-0 record, so they have taken 10 straight in this scenario and are coming off an 89-point effort against Memphis. Philadelphia is coming off a win at Dallas on Saturday by a bucket which was its second win of the season. Both victories have come on the road, but both have come against teams that will likely not be in the playoffs at the end of the season, so they step up in competition here. We are getting exceptional value with this number as Houston went into Philadelphia last week as a three-point favorite and now it is favored by just three points more as it heads home. Look for another Rockets victory following a loss and one that is more lopsided than the first one. 10* (712) Houston Rockets |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. With the loss of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers, the NFC North is more wide open and Detroit has an excellent shot to win the division. The Lions are 3-3 and sit a game and a half behind Minnesota following a pair of losses in their last two games but they are coming off their bye week, so they are in good position to regain that winning form. A three-point loss against Carolina and a four-point loss against Atlanta were tough defeats, especially the latter as the Lions were inches away from a victory. Detroit will not have it easy this week against the Pittsburgh defense but playing at home and in a rare primetime national television game is a big bonus. Teams coming off blowout losses followed by a bye week are typically in very good spots if they are at least considered a good team which the Lions are at this point and they have thrived themselves as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. After suffering a bad loss at home against Jacksonville, the Steelers were left for dead by some, but they responded with two big wins against Kansas City as underdogs two weeks ago and a blowout victory over Cincinnati last week. They are now a game and a half ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North, so they are again feeling good about themselves which often puts teams like that in difficult spots, especially when taking to the road. The Steelers are playing well on the road this season as they are 3-1 but with the exception of the win over the Chiefs, the victories over Cleveland and Baltimore are not impressive and the loss to the Bears was even worse. 10* (272) Detroit Lions |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Orlando is off to a great start this season as it is 4-1 and one of the biggest surprises in the NBA. We had the Magic on Friday against the Spurs as they won outright by 27 points and because of the early season success, they should no longer be sneaking up on anyone. They are 1-1 on the road with an upset win at Cleveland being the lone victory but a loss against Brooklyn negates that. This is the start of a three-game roadtrip for Orlando with the opening game always a difficult one in this league. Going back, the Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win. It has been an up and down start for Charlotte as it is 2-3 following a loss against Houston on Friday which was its first home loss of the season. The Hornets were underdogs there, so it was not a surprising defeat and they followed up their first two losses with victories in their next game which puts them in another ideal spot tonight. The Hornets will be getting Cody Zeller back tonight which does not seem like a big deal, but he is a strength on defense as without him in the lineup, they have allowed 100 or more points in three of their five games. This is big considering that Charlotte is 0-3 when giving up 100 or more points while going 2-0 when limiting the opposition to 99 or fewer. 10* (506) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-29-17 | 49ers +13 v. Eagles | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Month. Last week, NFL underdogs were 3-10-1 ATS as the sharps were killed and the books took a huge hit with all but one public favorite hitting. The 49ers will be first anti-public play this week as they are one of two winless teams in the NFL, but they are not playing like it. Last week was the exception when they got hammered by Dallas but prior to that, their last five losses were by a combined 13 points including a pair coming in overtime on the road. This is now their fourth road game in their last five and while the matchup seems like a mismatch, the line is taking that into consideration. We lost with the Eagles on Monday night as they won by 10 points despite outgaining the Redskins by just 27 total yards and at 6-1, they are moving into the top spot in several power rankings which is a bit aggressive at this point. The Eagles have covered four straight games which is the number to start looking when fading these streaks. Carson Wentz is being talked about as the MVP and while he is having a great season, all this talk does nothing but hurt them value wise. Philadelphia is outgaining opponents by 41.5 ypg which is just No. 10 in the league so it has not been running away in that regard. Coming off two straight primetime nationally televised games, the Eagles are surely in for a letdown and with the Broncos on deck, staying focused for this game will be next to impossible. Additionally, the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game while the 49ers have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (259) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-29-17 | Chargers +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots are coming off their best and most complete win on the season as they defeated Atlanta at home last Sunday night 23-7 while outgaining the Falcons by 60 total yards. We say best and most complete because of the opponent as they took care of a team that was hungry for a revenge win from the past Super Bowl and New England did not allow it as the defense rose to the occasion, holding Atlanta to a late fourth quarter touchdown despite giving up 353 total yards. The big thing was that the Patriots allowed just one red zone score in four Atlanta trips inside the 20-yard line. This defense is not that good to be consistent like that and the Chargers should have a better time of driving and putting up points. After a 0-4 start, the Chargers are riding a three-game winning streak and while getting back into the AFC West hunt may seem unlikely, Los Angeles is only two games out with the Chiefs and Broncos having each dropped two straight games. On the season, the Chargers are +4.4 ypg in yardage differential which is small but positive nonetheless while New England is -16 ypg in the same category so these teams are more equal than what the records show and what the line is telling us. The Chargers 23 sacks are tied for fourth most in the NFL so applying pressure to Tom Brady, who has been sacked 18 times, should be no issue. Los Angeles is No. 17 in the league on offense which is not great but even with the effort last week, the Patriots are dead last in the NFL in total defense. Going back, the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (265) Los Angeles Chargers |
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10-29-17 | Falcons -6 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Flacons have dropped three straight games, all against AFC East teams and Sunday they will try to avoid going winless against a division they should have gone 3-1 against at a minimum. Atlanta won the yardage battle against both Buffalo and Miami, so it should not have dropped both of those games but now it can take its frustrations out on the lowly Jets. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by 45 ypg and their 6.2 yards per play average is second best in the NFL so while the offense looks like it is struggling, it is only struggling to put points on the board. Atlanta is now a game behind New Orleans in the NFC South with a game at Carolina looming, so this is a must win. The Jets are coming off another tough loss as they blew a 14-point lead against Miami and lost by three points. That is a tough loss to come back from and after a close loss to the Patriots prior to that, getting up for this one seems impossible. New York has exceeded expectations already with three wins but none of those were quality victories although a win over Jacksonville is looking a little better. The Jets continue to make mistakes as they are -2 in turnover margin which is not horrible, but they are the only team in the NFL that has at least one turnover in every game. That is a perfect recipe for the Falcons that have just three takeaways on the season which is the fewest in the league. New York is sixth worst in the league in yardage margin despite playing several close games and if ever there is a time for another blowout, this is the one. Atlanta has covered five of its last six games against losing teams. 10* (255) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-28-17 | UNLV +21 v. Fresno State | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 55 m | Show |
We often see teams getting overvalued and undervalued based on recent results, public reactions or other factors but this is one of the biggest line adjustments in a short period of time that we have seen in a longtime. Fresno St. has caught fire with four consecutive wins including a very impressive win over San Diego St. last week and that will provide a letdown here. In the last two home games for Fresno St., it was favored by 7.5 over Nevada which is No. 119 in the current power ranking and was a home underdog by 2.5 points against New Mexico which is No. 101 in the rankings. Now it is nearly a three-touchdown favorite against UNLV which is No. 123 and those three opponents are within four points of each other in the raw point rankings. It can be argued that the Bulldogs were undervalued in those games which they probably were, but this is too much of an overadjustment. UNLV is running out of time as it has fallen to 2-5 following three straight losses. The Rebels offense has been erratic which is a surprise after having a strong 2016 season and returning nine starters from that team. However, while they are averaging a point les per game than less season, they are averaging nearly 40 ypg more so they are moving the ball and just need to execute better. The Bulldogs have a strong defense but stopping UNLV will not happen and the generous pointspread only makes it better. Despite the big number, the public is all over Fresno St. due to the fact it is 6-0-1 ATS on the season and there is streak hunting going on. The Rebels are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (211) UNLV Rebels |
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10-28-17 | Arkansas State v. New Mexico State +3 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
New Mexico St. is 3-4 and those three wins match its win total from each of the last two years and with a little bit of luck, the Aggies could be at 5-2 right now. They lost at Arizona St. by six points despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 149 total yards and they lost at home to Troy by just a field goal. Additionally, they lost at Appalachian St. but actually outgained the Mountaineers by 107 yards, so they have been playing a lot better than the record shows. New Mexico St. is a very experienced team that is strong on both sides of the ball and it is playing with a chip on its shoulder as this is its last season in the Sun Belt Conference, so it wants to go out making some noise and get to its first bowl game since 1960. The Aggies have their best running back returning this week and this is going to be a fired-up atmosphere considering it is a night game and their first home in in over a month following three road games and a bye week. We won with Arkansas St. last Thursday as it rolled over UL-Lafayette in a huge revenge game and got the payback from the Cajuns snapping an 18-game conference winning streak the year before. As mentioned last week, the home field advatnage for the Red Wolves is huge as they are now 33-6 since 2011 but this is a much different team on the road. Including their 1-2 record this season, they are just 12-15 over their last 27 road games and their defense is going to be challenged here. Arkansas St. is ranked No. 94 in total defense and that is a problem going into a hostile environment where the Aggies have covered six of their last seven home games. 10* (160) New Mexico St. Aggies |
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10-28-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The first two games of the season did not go as Boston planned as a season ending injury to Gordon Hayward led to a loss in Cleveland which was followed up by a loss at home against Milwaukee the next night. The Celtics are now back to business as usual with three straight wins including an impressive victory on the road against the Bucks last time out. They have done it with defense, yes even Kyrie Irving, as they have allowed just 90 ppg over their three-game winning streak with opponents shooting just 41.7 percent over that stretch. Even with Hayward gone, this is a team that can take the Eastern Conference as we saw in their last game. Miami is 2-2 following a home loss to San Antonio in its last game and it will be without its best player once again as Hassan Whiteside, who opened the season with a 26-22 double-double, will miss his fourth straight game. The two victories have come against Indiana and Atlanta, both of which are rebuilding and as long as the focus is there, the Celtics have no business losing to a team like this. The line is short enough where a win should be a cover and going back, Boston has covered six straight road games while Miami is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight home games. 10* (705) Boston Celtics |
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10-28-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -14 | Top | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 51 h 55 m | Show |
Clemson has had two weeks to stew over its first loss of the season, a three-point loss at Syracuse where it was outplayed from start to finish. The Tigers are still alive for a shot to defend their national title but there can be no more slipups as they have to run the table through the ACC Championship and hope some other teams ahead of them fall. They are in a good spot this week as they head back home to take on a Georgia Tech team they have dominated the last two years and have had an extra week of prep time to get ready for the Yellow Jacket option attack. Wake Forest had an extra week last week as well and it was doing fine but tired at the end as the offense had trouble staying on the field. That will not be an issue this week for Clemson as there is a lot of depth. This game was originally set for a 12:00 ET start but the Tigers got the game moved to primetime national TV and that is a massive edge for the home team. Georgia Tech comes in with a perfect 6-0 record against the number which is helping to keep this number manageable for Clemson. The Yellow Jackets have lost twice, both coming by a single point, so they could be in better shape on the national scene but a one-point loss against Miami was backed up by the fact they were outgained by 200 total yards, so it was a game they never should have been in. Despite a poor effort against Syracuse, Clemson is ranked No. 10 in total defense, No. 13 in rushing defense and No. 7 in scoring defense and it will be ready. 10* (140) Clemson Tigers |
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10-28-17 | Minnesota +7.5 v. Iowa | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. After a 3-0 start, Minnesota stumbled to three straight losses to Maryland, Purdue and Michigan St. before a bounce back win last week against Illinois. A win over the Illini is not saying a whole lot but it stopped the bleeding and brought some confidence back into the Gophers that have a tough remaining schedule including Michigan and Wisconsin. The rushing game has been up and down which is the strength of this team and a matchup with Iowa would typically not help matters but that is not the case this season as Minnesota should be able to control the line of scrimmage. The numbers do not lie as Minnesota is ranked No. 44 and No. 35 in rushing offense and defense respectively compared to Iowa being ranked No. 104 and No. 52 in those categories. The Hawkeyes are coming off a tough loss in overtime against Northwestern last week as they have now lost three of their last four games while getting outgained in all four of those games. People are still remembering the close loss against Penn St. four games back which has overvalued Iowa because what they have forgotten is that the Hawkeyes were outgained by 306 yards against the Nittany Lions, so it was a game they never should have been in. Iowa does not score much so when the price gets to be around a touchdown, it is a tough number for the Hawkeyes to cover especially against a much superior defense. Even though this is a new regime in Minnesota, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Gophers have gone 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as underdogs including 2-0 ATS this season. 10* (155) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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10-28-17 | Old Dominion v. North Texas -11 | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our C-USA Game of the Year. This is the third stage of a domino effect involving C-USA teams. We played on Western Kentucky two weeks ago as it had not covered a game going into its game with Charlotte and finally did. We then played against the Hilltoppers last week as they were overvalued at Old Dominion and the Monarchs played a strong game on Friday night in front of a national TV audience but still lost. Now Old Dominion hits the road where it is 1-2 on the season with the lone victory coming against 1-6 Massachusetts. The Monarchs were a 10-win team from last season but are now two losses away from not being bowl eligible. They won the yardage battle against an overrated Western Kentucky team but prior to that, they were outgained by 174, 139, 433 and 195 yards in their previous four games as the absence of quarterback David Washington has really shown. North Texas was riding along nicely with a three-game winning streak with legitimate wins over Southern Mississippi (5-2) and UTSA (4-2) but that run came to a crashing halt last week as the Mean Green went to Florida Atlantic and got pummeled by 38 points. It was a horrific defensive performance as the Owl ran up 804 yards of offense so if there is ever a time for the defense to take its frustrations out on a team, this is it. Old Dominion is ranked No. 120 in total offense and No. 121 in scoring offense and it is certainly facing North Texas at the wrong time. Not to be outdone, the Mean Green offense should also get back on track as it is ranked No. 16 in the country and the Monarchs are nearly as bad on defense as they are on offense as they are No. 108 in scoring and No. 102 overall. 10* (190) North Texas Mean Green |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. This is a matchup of two teams that buried us last week and we will be going the same route as it was two baffling outcomes that will come back to the norm this week. Virginia failed to show up last week during homecoming as it fell behind early and could never catch up as Boston College piled it on. The Cavaliers lost by 31-point which is uncharacteristic of a team riding a four-game winning streak and a program that has turned the corner. They allowed two 76=-yard touchdowns in the first quarter and those are deflating for any team so now it is rebound time to try and become bowl eligible. Going back, the Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home while going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is coming off an upset over Duke for just its third win on the season and that upset win along with the Virginia result has made the Panthers a legitimate false favorite here. Pittsburgh had lost five of its previous six games with the only win coming against Rice and the other win prior to that was against Youngstown St. in overtime in a game they were outgained in. this is not a good team and last week was a complete aberration as opposed to a team that has suddenly found something. Pittsburgh racked up 336 yards rushing against Duke but that was a bit skewed as two touchdowns came on runs of 76 and 92 yards by Darrin Hall who finished with 254 yards after coming into the game with 108 yards total. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (137) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-28-17 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +3 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. We were on Wake forest last week and it was covering most of the game but ran out of gas on defense as it allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns including a 70-yard run with less than two minutes left. The Demon Deacons defense was on the field for close to 36 minutes, but they do not have to worry about that this week as Louisville is just No. 63 in the country in time of possession. It is now three straight losses for Wake Forest after a 4-0 start and while the defense will be in better shape, the offense has a chance to break out against a poor Louisville defense. The Cardinals are coming off a 31-28 win over Florida St. as they nearly blew a 14-point lead, kicking the game winning field goal with five seconds remaining. That was just their second conference win as they have already lost to Clemson, NC State and Boston College so it has been a struggle. Louisville was able to pick off Florida St. three times last week but they will be facing a veteran quarterback in John Wolford who has tossed only two picks all season long. The Cardinals had dropped five straight against the number prior to last week which shows how overvalued they have been despite the poor play as expectations and the success from last season is still in tow. Wake Forest was 6-3 last season when it went to Louisville and got trounced by 32 points, so revenge will be a motivator as well. The Cardinals have failed to cover their last six games against winning teams while the Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (128) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -2.5 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -133 | 78 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CFB Friday Night Lights play. It has been a nightmare start for Florida St. which is 2-4 on the season as injuries have played a big role in its lack of success. The schedule has not helped either as the Seminoles opened with Alabama, which is where quarterback Deondre Francois was injuries, and then they were off for two weeks before coming back to face NC State. The other two losses came against Miami and Louisville, both of which could have been won. Overall, Florida St. has played the toughest schedule in the nation, so we can give them some leeway there as far as the losses go but most importantly, how they come into this game mentally will determine the outcome as talent-wise, these teams are not even close to each other. The one positive from last week was the Jimbo Fisher controversy at the end of the game as his players will be playing hard for him. The Seminoles were ranked 25th in the country in total offense in 2016, but has now plummeted to 102nd this year and their 11 touchdowns are the lowest among Power 5 schools. After going eight years without scoring 40 points in a game, Boston College has now done so two weeks in a row to improve to 4-4 on the season. We cannot see this happening again this week as the Eagles rushing attack falls right into the strength of the Seminoles defense where everything is done between the edges and they will not have that same success here. While Boston College has the momentum coming in, this is a gut check game for Florida St. and as long as it shows up, it wins easily. The Seminoles have not covered a game this season and we get the value because of it. 10* (111) Florida St. Seminoles |
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10-27-17 | Spurs v. Magic +5.5 | Top | 87-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
San Antonio is a half-point away from being a perfect 4-0 against the number which would match its straight up record that has been put together without the services of Kawhi Leonard. It shows how good this organization is which comes down to coaching but because the Spurs are not at full strength, they are vulnerable in an anti-public situation such as this. San Antonio is coming off a win over Miami on Wednesday, but the Heat were shorthanded while its other road win came against the depleted Bulls that mustered a mere 77 points. LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up huge in the absence of Leonard but the other four starters consisting of Danny Green, Dejounte Murray, Pau Gasol and Kyle Anderson is shockingly overachieving. Orlando is off to a 3-1 start and while a split with Brooklyn does not look very good, wins over Cleveland and Miami (with Hassan Whiteside) look exceptional. The Magic are 3-1 for the first time since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, when they won four of their first five games. They have two guys to lean on as Aaron Gordon is averaging 27.5 ppg and 11.5 rpg on 58.1 percent shooting while Nikola Vucevic is averaging 21.5 ppg and 10.3 rpg on 59.7 percent shooting and those two can neutralize the Spurs typical dominating frontcourt. Evan Fournier is averaging 21.5 ppg which makes Orlando just one of two NBA teams with three players averaging more than 20 ppg, the Warriors being the other one, so it is in pretty good company. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 57 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS Baltimore opened the season 2-0 but it has been a struggle since then as the Ravens have gone 1-4 over their last five games as the offense has really struggled over this recent stretch. The Ravens are coming off a loss at Minnesota this past Sunday and while they only lost by eight points, it was a garbage touchdown with no time left that made it look respectable. They managed only 64 rushing yards and 144 passing yards and while it is hard to defend this type of output, the Vikings are No. 4 in total defense, the fourth top seven defense they have faced over this 1-4 stretch. Miami has a strong defense of its own, but it just allowed 28 pints against the Jets and Baltimore has to just look back to last season when it hung 38 points on the Dolphins. Miami is the worst above .500 team in football as its -46.4 ypg differential is the lowest of any team above .500 so the 4-2 start is an illusion. The offense got a spark last week when Jay Cutler got hurt and Matt Moore came into the game and led the Dolphins to the 14-point comeback against the Jets, but they are still ranked dead last in the league in total offense and No. 31 in scoring offense. Baltimore is two games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North and already has one head-to-head loss against the Steelers, so this is a big game to keep pace in the division. Going back, the Dolphins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (102) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-26-17 | Celtics v. Bucks -4 | Top | 96-89 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Because of the injury to the Celtics Gordon Hayward, Milwaukee has turned into the team to most likely dethrone the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are off to a 3-1 start with the lone loss coming against the Cavaliers, so they might not be there yet, but this is clearly a contender. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a beast through four games, averaging 36.8 ppg and is an early season MVP candidate which was expected. This is a good scheduling spot as this is the fourth straight home game for Milwaukee spanning seven days so the rest and no travel are big advantages. Boston is 2-2 with losses coming against Cleveland and Milwaukee and the wins coming against Philadelphia and New York so the Celtics have not been able to keep pace with the elite teams. They have alternated home and road games all season so there has been travel involved between each game so facing a team that has stayed put for a week puts Boston in a tough spot here. This is a revenge game for the Celtics but we do not worry about road revenge and there is value in this number on the home team as the pointspread swing from the first meeting to now is just 5.5 points and the typical swing is 7.5-8 points with a venue change. Speaking of venue, this game is being played at the MECCA which is the old home of the Bucks as part of their 50th season celebration and it is going to be a great environment. 10* (704) Milwaukee Bucks |
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10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Last season, Eastern Michigan went to its first bowl game since 1987 and despite coming into this season expecting to make it back to the postseason, the Eagles need a big second half of the season for that to happen. They are 2-5 and have lost five straight games following a 2-0 start but that is a very skewed record. Two of those losses came in overtime while the other three came by a combined 10 points, a four-point loss at Kentucky, a five-point loss at Toledo and a one-point loss at Army. It has been very frustrating to say the least, but this is a very experienced team and they are not throwing in the towel yet. Northern Illinois is coming off its first losing season since 2008 so we expected the Huskies to play with a chip on its shoulder this season in trying to get back to another MAC Championship game. They have done just that as they are 5-2 including a 3-0 record in the MAC but it has not been a great run. The Huskies did defeat Nebraska, but they were outgained by 148 total yards and needed two interceptions returned for touchdowns to get that victory. The three MAC victories have come against teams 1-3 in the conference and while it can be argued that Eastern Michigan has a worse record than those three teams, the Eagles could have won any three of those games. We are seeing interesting line movement here as most of the action is on Northern Illinois, yet the line has come down, so we will be going with that reverse line movement. Additionally, the Eagles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (107) Eastern Michigan Eagles |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
The Mavericks will be our first and only double contrarian play of the season as the schedule will not see another matchup like this the remainder of the season. Memphis is a perfect 3-0 following impressive wins over Golden St. and Houston in their last two games and they head to Dallas in the first game of a home-and-home set that concludes tomorrow. Memphis is one of the bigger surprises in the early part of the season as it was projected for 38 wins but has looked like a championship contender although we are not putting them in that category just yet. The defense has carried the Grizzlies as they are allowing 39.6 percent shooting which is remarkable considering they had games against the Warriors and Rockets. They have covered all three games by double-digits. Dallas is at the other end of the contrarian record as it is off to a 0-3 start, both straight up and against the number. The Mavericks have been on the other side of games against the rockets and Warriors as they lost both, falling to Houston on the road and then losing to Golden St. two days after the Warriors lost to the Grizzlies so they were in a bad spot there. The Mavericks are in a youth movement as this is a team in transition and as is the case with a lot of teams like this, there is value to be had as people are already writing them off. Dallas has gone 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 125 or more points. 10* (514) Dallas Mavericks |
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10-25-17 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The Sabres have won two straight games for the first time this season after a rough start. The 32-save shutout by Robin Lehner on Tuesday gave Buffalo its first home win of the season and the situation tonight is a first. While this is the third back-to-back of the season, this is the first time the Sabres are playing the second game in two nights coming off a win. They went 2-6 last season in such situations. Because Lehner got the start last night, Chad Johnson will be between the pipes tonight and his 3.84 gpg allowed is fifth worst in the NHL among 50 qualified goalies. After a win in Winnipeg to start last week, the Blue Jackets fell to the top two teams in the NHL at home as they lost to Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at home. Not getting any points at home was especially disappointing against the Kings as that game should have at worst been an overtime loss but the Blue Jackets allowed a late goal and it was sealed with an empty-netter. Columbus was 28-12-1 at home last season and did not lose three straight at home at any point during the regular season. The Sabres went 3-9 last season following two or more consecutive wins while the Blue Jackets are 17-5 in their last 22 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (54) Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 Puckline |
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10-25-17 | Rockets -3 v. 76ers | Top | 105-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Houston was one of the best teams in the NBA coming off a loss last season as it went 24-7 after a defeat and tonight presents our first opportunity to go after that angle this season. The Rockets opened the season 3-0 including an impressive season opening win over Golden St. but it lost against Memphis on Monday and now hits the road again for the start of a three-game roadtrip. The offense was stymied against the Grizzlies as they were held to 90 points on 41.6 percent shooting including 23.7 percent from long range where they made only nine three-pointers. While the rockets were great after a loss last season, they were untouchable coming off a loss when scoring 103 or fewer points as they followed those games up with a perfect 9-0 record. As Houston was coming off its first loss of the season, the Sixers were coming off their first win of the season following a 0-3 start. They went to Detroit and defeated the Pistons by 11 points, holding the Pistons to 38.8 percent shooting. It is doubtful the defense was that good however as Philadelphia allowed 116.7 in those first two games, so we can chalk it up to a bad shooting night for the Pistons. The Sixers committed 21 turnovers, so it was far from a clean win and while the season is young, the Sixers are averaging 18.5 tpg which is third highest in the league. The Sixers have gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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10-25-17 | Nuggets v. Hornets +2 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Of the ten games on the Wednesday schedule, there are eight road favorites and this one is the most surprising of the bunch, so we will go against the false favorite. Charlotte opened the season with a loss at Detroit but that was not a good spot as the Pistons were opening their new downtown arena and following that up with a win at home over Atlanta in a blowout. The Hornets lost in their last game at Milwaukee on Monday as they melted down in the second half, but it was the ineptness from the free throw line that really did them in. they attempted 36 shots from the stripe, 20 more than the Bucks, and made only 21 of those for a 58.3 percent clip. Denver is also off to a 1-2 start following a split in its two-game homestand. The Nuggets lost at Utah by 10 points in their only road game in their season opener and they have been a notoriously bad road team recently. After being one of the fastest paced teams in the league last season, ranking No. 8 in possessions per game, Denver has slowed it down this season as it is ranked No. 28 through three games. Clearly, there is no identity on which way this team wants to play with the addition of Paul Millsap but once they do figure that out, they will be a force on both sides. In the meantime, we will take advantage of them being overvalued. Charlotte was a home underdog five times last season (Cleveland, Golden St., Houston, Utah and San Antonio). Denver is not in that group. 10* (506) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-24-17 | Nets v. Magic -5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our Tuesday NBA Supreme Annihilator. Two of the worst teams in the NBA last season are off to 2-1 starts and square off for the second time this season. Brooklyn won on Sunday to improve to 2-1 which was its second straight home win following a road loss against Indiana to open the season. The Nets may be slightly improved this season but winning on the road is going to be just as tough after winning a total of seven games on the highway last season. This is the first time the Nets have had a winning record in almost three years but one concern here is that they are back home tomorrow hosting the Cavaliers and a young team can be distracted to that. Orlando is also off to a 2-1 start following a very impressive win at Cleveland on Saturday. The Magic are 1-0 at home with the win coming against Miami so the victories have been better quality than the Nets and the schedule strength proves that with a 15-spot differential. Orlando gets Aaron Gordon back tonight after he missed the last two games with an ankle injury. The Magic will be out to avenge that loss to the Nets from last week as they played good enough to win, outshooting Brooklyn from the floor and from long range but the Nets held a 25-15 edge from the free throw line. 10* (702) Orlando Magic |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Monday Primetime play. Philadelphia enters Monday night riding a four-game winning streak and has become the toast of the NFL with a 5-1 record. The Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC at +425 but these lofty expectations have now taken value away as they are overpriced in this divisional game. Typically, we plan for a three-point number in a divisional game when teams are not too far off from each other and that is the case here. Philadelphia is 2-0 at home but it nearly lost to the Giants while getting outgained by 61 yards and took care of Arizona as it scored 21 first quarter points. The Eagles won the first meeting back on opening day by 13 points, but the game was closer than that throughout as they scored on a fumble recovery in the final two minutes to seal it. Washington is 3-2 and this is a game it needs to win to keep pace in the NFC East. A loss would put the Redskins 2.5 games behind Philadelphia and it would essentially be 3.5 games because of the head-to-head sweep. The Washington offense has been consistent which was a concern coming in with a new receiving corps as the Redskins are ranked No. 7 overall. Their worst game was the opener, but they can be given a mulligan for that based on it being the first game. Washington finished No. 28 in total defense in 2015 and 2016 and is up to No. 12 this season which is a significant turnaround. Washington has been a solid team away from home as going back to last season, it has covered 10 of its last 13 road games including a 4-1 ATS record against winning home teams. 10* (477) Washington Redskins |
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10-23-17 | 76ers +4 v. Pistons | Top | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Sixers are coming off an awful game against Toronto on Saturday as they lost by 34 points to fall to 0-3 on the season. Philadelphia was a sleeper by some to make a playoff run and while it may not be looking that was now, it faced three of top teams in the Eastern Conference so now it takes a step down in competition. Philadelphia center Joel Embiid (left knee rehabilitation) did not play Saturday as he continued to rest in the second half of back-to-back games but will be in the lineup tonight to round out a very balanced offense of six players averaging between 10.0 and 15.7 ppg. Going back, the Sixers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Detroit is off to a 2-1 start with wins over Charlotte and New York and a loss at Washington. The Pistons have covered all three games thus far and that is a streak the public is backing here as they are one of two teams to start the season 3-0 against the number. They rallied from a 21-point deficit on Saturday to beat the lowly Knicks in New York but the Sixers are in a solid spot here as they catch the Pistons in a feasible letdown spot and lookahead game to Minnesota. 10* (501) Philadelphia 76ers |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime play. We often talk about revenge and how it can come into play in certain spots. Typically, it is a situation that is secondary to another positive situation but in this case, it is the main ingredient. No need to go into details about the revenge but the Falcons have had this one on their calendars since the schedule came out in April. Shying away from road revenge is usually recommended but not here as Atlanta will go all out and it certainly has what it takes to win this one. The Falcons are coming off a pair of home losses against Buffalo and Miami and those are two games they no doubt should have won as they won the yardage battle in both games but were -3 in net turnovers. Overall, it has been a lethargic start to the season as games against the Bears and Lions could have resulted in losses as well but if there is a game to jumpstart the season, this is it. The Patriots are not looking good right now. We thought they may have turned a corner and backed them last week, but they failed to cover and were close to losing to the Jets and this team is not right. Whether it is age on offense or lack of chemistry on defense, this team is vulnerable to anyone right now as they have been outgained in four straight games. The Falcons can carve up this defense which makes this a game that can go either way, so a field goal finish gets the win if you can get the hook on the three. New England has failed to cover all three games at home this season while the Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. 10* (475) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +1 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Broncos are coming off an ugly loss last Sunday night as they fell by 13 points as a 13.5-point favorite and it was an ugly game not because they played poor football but because they lost too many intangibles. Denver lost the turnover battle 3-0, missed a pair of field goals and were bad in the redzone. The Broncos outgained the Giants 412-266 so they clearly dominated but these things can happen in football and the good thing for us is that the reaction is to the score and not what happened so we get line value which is the case here. Denver has outgained all five opponents as the loss at Buffalo was another game it could have won if not for losing the intangibles. After a 0-4 start, the Chargers have won two straight games and five of their six games overall have been decided by five points or less. That seems to point toward another close game here, considering the Broncos won the first meeting at home by just three points, but looking at the complete body of work, the Broncos are the superior team on both sides of the ball. As is the case with Chargers home games, the Denver fans will dominate the stadium as this Los Angeles team has the worst home field edge in the NFL. This is a revenge game for the Chargers but Denver has won seven of the last eight meetings so there has been a lot of revenge in the past that the Chargers could not take care of. The Broncos have covered five of their last seven games following a loss while the Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. 10* (473) Denver Broncos |
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10-22-17 | Hawks v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
We won with the Nets on Friday and we will be backing them again on Sunday in another rare role of favorites. While saying this team may be on the rose is an overstatement, they have improved over the last couple seasons as the chemistry has come together and the addition of D'Angelo Russell is already proving to pay off. Excluding Jeremy Lin who is out for the season, Brooklyn has seven players averaging double0digits in scoring and while that is likely unsustainable throughout the season, the depth is a big strength for the Nets which is a big edge when playing as fast as they do. The same cannot be said for the Hawks as they have a pure scorer in Dennis Schroder and that is about it as they are rebuilding after 10 straight playoff seasons which pretty much got them nowhere. Losing Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha is hard to make up and it showed Friday as after a big start, Atlanta ran out of gas against the Hornets, scoring only 35 second half points. While playing up tempo is fun for some players, Atlanta cannot keep up as the Nets are accustomed to it and will take advantage. Going back to last season, the Nets are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Hawks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. 10* (702) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-22-17 | Saints v. Packers +4.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We played against the Packers last Sunday and the win was made a lot easier because of the unfortunate injury to Aaron Rodgers. Now with Rodgers out, everybody is calling the Packers done but that is hardly the case. They are not Super Bowl contenders without Rodgers but playing in the NFC North makes them a legitimate division contender because it is so weak. Brett Hundley will be making the start in place of Rodgers and people will point to his poor effort last week. Coming into a game against a strong defense after not having practiced with the first string is a lot different than having a full week of practice to prepare. Plus, Hundley has been in this system for three years so he will be just fine, especially against the Saints defense. New Orleans is coming off a win at home against Detroit and while the score looks lopsided, the Lions lost the game on their own as they committed five turnovers that led to short fields and points for the Saints. New Orleans has won three straight games following a 0-2 start but we are not overly impressive as one win came against the Panthers before Cam Newton turned his season around while the other one came against Miami in London, part of a brutal Dolphins travel log. While this road game looks like a cakewalk to some, that is simply not the case. Not only do we back a Green Bay team that is still very talented but we are getting incredible line value as the Rodgers injury has created an eight-point swing and it is hard to justify an adjustment like that based on one player no matter how good or how important he is to the team. 10* (466) Green Bay Packers |
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Sportsbooks were taking bets before the season started on whether the Jets would go winless this season and after a 2-0 start, it was looking like it could still happen. New York then went on to win three straight games and then played the Patriots very tough last week so there has been an impressive turnaround. Coming off that close call last week however puts the Jets in a horrible spot on Sunday as that can cause a true letdown the following week. The venue has played a big part in the success of New York as it has outgained opponents by 101.3 ypg in three home games but has been outgained by 180 ypg in three road games. The Jets won in Cleveland despite being outgained by 207 yards as they took advantage of three Browns turnovers and the Dolphins will have to avoid that similar outcome. Miami has won two in a row over Tennessee and Atlanta including coming back from 17 points down against the Falcons last week. It has not been a very good season for Miami despite being 3-2 as the start to the season was incredibly tough as the Dolphins went six straight weeks of being on the road dating back to the preseason. The defense is flying under the radar as Miami is No. 3 in scoring and No. 11 overall and that can carry them again here. Additionally, Miami will be out to avenge a 20-6 loss in New York last month as it failed to score until the final play of the game. Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins |
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10-22-17 | Titans v. Browns +6 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Browns are a team to be played in certain spots and this is one of those. Cleveland is winless at 0-6 while it has failed to cover five straight games. We were involved in the first non-cover of this streak where we took the Browns against Baltimore and they had late chances to cover but failed. Now after four subsequent non-covers, we will be backing Cleveland this week at home as this team has been better than the record indicates. Three of the losses have come by just three points and on the season, the Browns are getting outgained by only 2.4 ypg. We won with Tennessee on Monday night as it came to life in the fourth quarter to defeat the Colts by 14 points as it put up 21 points in the final period. The Titans now have to hit the road on short rest after what was considered a big win as it was the first Monday night game since 2014 and they were able to snap an 11-game losing streak against the Colts so do not expect to see their best effort this week. Marcus Mariota was limited last week as he was not able to move around much and may be forced to scramble more here as the Browns defense is a very solid unit as they are ranked No. 8 overall and No. 6 in rushing defense. They are allowing just 3.0 ypc which is tied for the best in the NFL and that will surprise a lot of people. Making matters even worse, Tennessee has a bye next week which could further add to its lack of focus against the 0-6 Browns. The Titans are 5-23-3 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* (452) Cleveland Browns |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks -3 | Top | 110-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Portland is off to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over Phoenix and Indiana as its accumulated lead total through the two games is 91 points, but we cannot take these victories too serious. Both the Suns and Pacers are in rebuild mode and now the Blazers take on their first real opponent and one that is looking for some redemption. The Bucks opened their season with a win over the Celtics but last night, they were clobbered at home against Cleveland which gave a sign that they are not close to where they want to be. Milwaukee caught Cleveland at a bad time as the Cavaliers shot 54.3 percent from the floor while going a perfect 17-17 from the free throw line. The Bucks are a better team than what was on display last night and while they still shot a solid 46.3 percent from the floor, they could not get the pace that they wanted as they had only 82 shots, but they will be able to pick up the tempo tonight. The Rockets are the only other team that is 2-0 on the road and winning three straight road games to start the season is not easy in this league, especially for a non-elite team. Milwaukee covered seven of its last eight games last season in the second game of a back-to-back and looks to rebound tonight in the second game of a four-game homestand. 10* (516) Milwaukee Bucks |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 56 h 17 m | Show |
It is hard to believe but this is the first time since 2009 that Notre Dame and USC face each other as ranked teams. The Trojans are the higher ranked team but they could be the most overrated team in the country right now. We played them in their first two games of the season, losing against Western Michigan and winning against Stanford and even in the win over the Cardinal, something seemed off and since then, it has been off. It took overtime to defeat Texas, they were tied in the fourth quarter at California, lost outright to Washington St. which got destroyed by Cal last week, and was within a successful two-point conversion of falling to Utah last week. The only impressive game came against Oregon St. and the Beavers are the worst team in the Pac 12 at 1-6. Notre Dame is a one-point loss against Georgia from being undefeated and that is a good indication of how good the Irish have been as the rest of the schedule has been soft. A victory over Michigan St. was good even though it was outgained but Notre Dame has dominated every other team which is what great teams are supposed to do. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is back as he missed the last game against North Carolina and Notre Dame is also coming off a bye week which is big for him and big for the team as a whole considering USC is playing for the eighth consecutive week. The Rushing offense is ranked No. 5 in the nation behind a stout offensive line and will be facing a pretty average Trojans defense. The Trojans are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. 10* (402) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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10-21-17 | Wake Forest +7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -135 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
Wake Forest opened the season with a 4-0 record but then lost it last two games against Florida St. and Clemson but both of those defeats were respectable efforts. The Demon Deacons lost to the Seminoles late as they won the yardage battle by 97 yards and against Clemson, they lost by 14 points with a couple late scores but holding the Tigers to 28 points was impressive. The defense is solid once again as they are allowing just 339.5 ypg and 16.7 ppg and facing a one-dimensional offense is no issue as they have shut down Army and Tulane over the last two seasons. Coming off two physical games would normally be a concern but Wake Forest had a bye last week which also benefits for an extra week of preparation for the Georgia Tech option offense. The rushing defense is allowing only 3.5 ypc on the season. The Yellow Jackets are just 3-2 on the season but those two losses have come by a single point each including a one-point setback at Miami last week. They looked as though they were going to pull off the upset but gave up the final 12 points of the game including allowing the game winning field goal with just four seconds remaining. That is a difficult loss to recover from but it was a misleading final score to begin with as Georgia Tech was outgained by 200 yards against the Hurricanes. The Yellow Jackets are one of five teams that has yet to lose a game against the spread which is a favorite go against play at this stage in the season. The Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Yellow Jackets are 9-21-2 ATS in their last 32 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (351) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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10-21-17 | UL-Monroe +5 v. South Alabama | Top | 23-33 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 43 m | Show |
South Alabama picked up a big win for us last week against Troy as it won outright as an 18-point underdog but that was a rivalry situation and now the Jaguars come in as a missed price favorite. They are 2-4 on the season and they have been dominated in all but one game this season as they have been outgained in five of six games. The lone game South Alabama won the yardage battle came against Alabama A&M of the FCS, a team that is ranked No. 227 out of 255 teams in the country. The offense continues to struggle as it managed only 236 yards last week against the Trojans and on the season, the Jaguars are ranked No. 120 in total offense. No make matters worse, their best running back Xavier Johnson was injured last week and is questionable this week. The fact they are favored is surprising as going back, the Jaguars are 5-14-1 ATS as home favorites since 2012. UL-Monroe is coming off an awful effort last week against Georgia Southern after opening Sun Belt Conference action with a 3-0 record. The Warhawks went 4-8 last season but brought back 15 starters this season so the good start is not a big surprise. They are 2-1 on the road and they have been solid in all three games as they have outgained all three opponents including Memphis where they lost by just eight points in their season opener. UL-Monroe has struggled with its defense but this is the second worst offense it has faced with the first being Texas St. and it allowed just 386 yards in that game. The Warhawks have covered five straight road games while the Jaguars are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. 10* (399) UL-Monroe Warhawks |
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10-21-17 | Indiana v. Michigan State -6.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. Michigan St. has won three straight games following a pair of big road wins at Michigan and Minnesota and after a dreadful 2016 season, the Spartans are 5-1 including a 3-0 record in the Big Ten. They have a long way to go to think about winning the East Division with games against Ohio St. and Penn St. upcoming but they need to take care of business before that. The lone defeat came against Notre Dame but that was a game it could have won if it was played normally as the Spartans lost the turnover battle 3-0 as they outgained the Irish by 141 total yards which went for naught. Indiana is coming off a tough loss in overtime against Michigan and that has to be a deflating defeat as they were close to knocking off a top team but fell short. Those are the type of losses that can linger and the Hoosiers are going into a difficult environment this week. They are 1-1 on the road with a fortunate win over Virginia that was sealed with a late punt return touchdown and while the talent of this Indiana team is stronger than normal, winning on the road against ranked opponents has not been their strength as they have not defeated a Big Ten ranked team on the road since 2001. The Hoosiers struggled to run the ball against Michigan and now faces the No. 8 ranked rushing defense in the nation. Michigan St. lost in overtime at Indiana last season to fall to 2-2 and that was the beginning of the end as it was the second loss in a six-game slide. Payback is in order as Michigan St. has covered seven straight Big Ten revenge games. 10* (336) Michigan St. Spartans |
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10-21-17 | Central Florida v. Navy +7.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Navy was unable to sustain its winning streak at it lost by a field goal against Memphis, putting an end to its five-game run. it was a game the Midshipmen had every chance to win as they controlled the clock by more than 14 minutes but they committed five turnovers that led to 13 points all of which were deep in their own territory so mistakes were costly. They head back home where they covered all three games last season as home underdogs and they won all of those outright. Additionally, Navy has gone 6-0 since 2014 following a regular season loss. UCF has been a money-maker this season as it has rolled to a 5-0 start and has covered all those games although the contest against Cincinnati was officially a no-action game as 55 minutes were not played. The Knights have won those five games by 34, 28, 27, 28 and 42 points so they have not even been challenged and that is not a good thing as they get into the meat of their schedule. Three of the next four games are on the road and they have USF at home so we are going to see what this team is made of. So far, UCF has played the No. 130 ranked schedule in the country and has not seen anything on either side of the ball and this matchup is going to be a problem for the defense that has never played this option offense. Because of the blowouts to start the season, linesmakers have no choice but to make UCF a big road favorite because the public loves riding these streaks while we love going against them because of the value we are receiving. 10* (372) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-21-17 | Boston College v. Virginia -6.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -118 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We played on Virginia a few weeks back when it went to Boise St. and defeated the Broncos and it is now 5-1 on the season following its fourth consecutive victory last week. The Cavaliers have had a great turnaround season following a 2-10 record last year in the first year under head coach Bronco Mendenhall and they are poised to make their first bowl game since 2011. The only loss came against Indiana and it was a game it should have won as the Cavaliers were outgained by only four yards while the Hoosiers returned a punt for a late touchdown to seal the game. Virginia has played a tame schedule but its defense is ranked No. 20 in the country and Boston College is not going to have the same success it has last week. The Eagles went to Louisville last week and hung 45 points on the Cardinals which was by far their highest point total of the season. As a matter of fact, it is their highest point total against a team from the FBS since 2013 when they scored 48 points against Army. The offense has not suddenly found its stride but faced a porous Louisville defense that has been torched most of the season. Boston College is still a dismal No. 114 in scoring and No. 102 in total offense and while its defense has been a force the last few years, it is No. 107 this season in total defense. The Eagles are allowing 131 ypg more than last season and close to 200 ypg more than in 2015 so it is a shell of what it used to be. A great system is to go against a team that won outright as a double-digit dog and it is now a single-digit dog as the lines are typically adjusted wrong. 10* (362) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-21-17 | Pittsburgh v. Duke -8 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB October Game of the Month. This is a great scheduling setup for Duke as after a 4-0 start, it has lost three straight games but those were against Miami, resurgent Virginia and Florida St. with the last two coming by a touchdown each. Now the Blue Devils catch a break as they take a step down in competition but they will be fully focused based on the current streak they are on. To no surprise, Duke lost the yardage battle each of these last three games while winning the yardage battle in all four victories. Pittsburgh is in the midst of a horrible season as it is 2-5 with the victories coming against Youngstown St. of the FCS in overtime and Rice which is 1-5 on the season. The highlight of the season could be that the Panthers outgained Penn St. in their 33-14 loss but the Nittany Lions revealed after they were not going close to full throttle. Pittsburgh has been outgained by an average of 208.8 ypg in its last four losses and making matters worse, the Panthers are without USC transfer starting quarterback Max Browne who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Overall, Pittsburgh is No. 103 in total offense and No. 109 in total defense so the inexperience coming into the season where it was ranked No. 123 in the nation in experience has carried forward. Duke should not have issues taking its foot off the pedal here as last season, Pittsburgh ran up the score in a 56-14 victory and the Blue Devils were not happy about it. Going back, the Panthers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games overall while the Blue Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games. 10* (346) Duke Blue Devils |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The new-look Timberwolves did not get off to a good start but facing the Spurs in their season opener can do that to a lot of teams. Minnesota lost by eight points in a very slow-paced game and Jimmy Butler had a poor debut as he scored only 12 points in 35 minutes but playing his first game at home in Minnesota will add to his bounce back effort. He scored 15 or fewer points 11 times last season and averaged 26.5 ppg in the 11 follow up games. The Timberwolves are projected to have a top-level offense and they will show that off here. The Jazz held the Nuggets to 96 points but Denver still shot 46.8 percent from the floor as Utah played at a snail's pace which is a lot easier to do at home than it is on the road. Utah had a strong defense last season but the loss of Gordon Hayward and George Hill severely hurts the defense which is projected to be a below average No. 22 in defense. Ricky Rubio had an average debut and while he will be pretty fired up in his return to Minnesota, that will not be enough. After 51 wins last season, Utah is projected for just 40.5 wins this season which shows how much of a drop is expected. 10* (714) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-20-17 | Magic v. Nets -2 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off a home win over Miami in its season opener as it won by seven points as a 3.5-point underdog. The Magic played solid defense as it held Miami to 39.3 percent shooting when taking away the 11-18 performance from Hassan Whiteside and the defense will be the cornerstone of the team this season but that does not necessarily mean it is a very good defense. The Magic have turned the front office and roster over once again and the matchup tonight will test them and the defense. Brooklyn lost at Indiana in its opener as the 131 points scored was not enough as the Nets will once again be at the top of the league in pace. That means plenty of points but also means plenty of points allowed and part of their problem on Wednesday was turnovers as they gave it away 20 times which they could not recover from. D’Angelo Russell had a strong debut and is a great addition to build around. The loss of Jeremy Lin is going to hurt the depth but we like the matchup here as Brooklyn succeeded last season in this scenario as it went 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Look for a big rebound tonight. 10* (712) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-20-17 | Hawks v. Hornets -6 | Top | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Hawks are expected to have a rough season as they came in dead last in some preseason power rankings. It is a total rebuild in Atlanta as its 10-year playoff run will likely come to an end this season as it no longer has the services of Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha. The Hawks are going in a different direction, attempting to rebuild with a young team while keeping their cap manageable and holding onto their No. 1 picks. So, what did they do Wednesday? They went on the road and defeated the Mavericks, another team that is close to doing a full rebuild but the challenge will be tougher tonight. Charlotte hit the road as well for its season opener but the results were not as good as it lost in Detroit by 12 points. The Hornets shot horrible, grabbed just three offensive rebounds and committed 17 turnovers which all led to getting outshot 96-73 and no team is going to win many games when getting outshot by 23. They head home where they look to regroup and the revenge narrative is in play tonight with Howard who had issues with Atlanta head coach Mike Budenholzer and he has a chance to go off. The home team has covered 10 of the last 13 meetings. 10* (704) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the OLD DOMINION MONARCHS for our CFB Friday Night Lights play. We won with Western Kentucky last Saturday as it defeated a bad Charlotte team to make it three straight wins. While we were high on the Hilltoppers last week, we are going the other way this week as their three-game winning streak has come against teams that are a combined 2-18 and the four overall wins have come against teams a combined 3-23. They do face another losing team this week but they hit the road where they have struggled as they lost to Illinois 20-7 and narrowly defeated 0-7 UTEP by a point. We thought Western Kentucky would run all over the 49ers last week but has only 121 yards on the ground and looks like it could struggle again this week against another not so great rushing defense. Old Dominion won 10 games last season and came into this season with high expectations but after a 2-0 start, it has lost four straight games and they were not pretty. Two of those did come against ACC teams while another came on the road last week against Marshall but it was the home loss against Florida Atlantic that was befuddling. It was the result of turnovers as four interceptions led to 21 points for the Owls while another touchdown was the result of a turnover on downs. Last week, the Thundering Herd scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, one coming on a fumble recovery return, so that was deceiving as well. Quarterback play has been an issue and it needs to be shored up in the redzone so while the Hilltoppers defense looks good on paper, playing the No. 170 ranked schedule has helped. Western Kentucky is the second biggest public betting consensus on the entire weekend board as the road chalk is not scaring people away. 10* (308) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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10-19-17 | Clippers v. Lakers +5 | Top | 108-92 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
The Lakers were a pleasant surprise last season, going 26-56 and while that may look horrendous, after winning 17 and 21 games the previous two seasons, last year was a big move forward. One of the youngest rosters in the NBA and plenty of cap space after this season, the future is bright in Los Angeles and there could very well be another positive move this season if the youngsters can gel. We did not get to see much of rookie Lonzo Ball in the preseason because of a bum ankle but he is the playmaker that will be comfortable right away. The Lakers upgraded at center with Brook Lopez while Julius Randle, third full season, and Brandon Ingram, second full season, will both continue to improve. The Clippers almost mailed it in this season as the loss of Chris Paul to Houston was thought to start a domino effect of stars leaving but Blake Griffin resigned and they signed Danilo Gallinari and along with DeAndre Jordan, they have one of the top frontcourts in the league. The backcourt is now an issue with the Paul departure and Los Angeles has taken a small step back overall as opposed to many other teams taking a step forward. The Clippers have dominated this series over the last few years but a new season brings new optimism for the Lakers and this line tells us a lot as the last three meetings, the Lakers were double-digit underdogs so the gap is closing. 10* (506) Los Angeles Lakers |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -125 | 57 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Primetime play. After going against the Chiefs last Sunday, we will be on their side this week despite laying road chalk and despite having to travel out west on a short week. Kansas City ran into a stout Steelers defense as it managed only 251 yards of offense and lost its first game of the season while also dropping its first game against the number. They head to Oakland with a 3-0 road record including impressive wins over New England and Houston and we can expect a bounce back as the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Seven of those covers were outright wins by double-digits. We projected the Raiders to be an overrated team this season after its success a season ago as the public was riding them as the favorites to take down the Patriots in the AFC and as expected, they have fallen flat. Oakland has lost four straight games after a 2-0 start and the offense has been horrible as the Raiders have averaged just 13.3 ppg during the four-game skid and they have dropped down to No. 30 in total offense. Typically, this would be a spot to play on Oakland based on the losing streak but things just are not right and Derek Carr looks like he came back too soon. One thing to take note is that some losing streaks can be unlucky but Oakland has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 144.3 ypg. They have had troubles with the Chiefs over the last few years with five straight losses so revenge is in play but not in this spot. 10* (301) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-19-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State -12.5 | Top | 3-47 | Win | 100 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Arkansas St. remains home following a blowout win over Coastal Carolina to improve to 2-0 in the Sun Belt Conference and improve to 2-0 at home. The Red Wolves have had a huge home field advantage over the years as they are 32-6 here since 2011 while going 22-11 ATS over this stretch as a home favorite. There were questions coming into the season on both sides with just five starters returning on offense and defense and while the defense has not held up, it never has over the years and the offense is once again potent, ranked No. 14 in scoring and No. 34 overall. Louisiana is coming off a win over a bad Texas St. team and it was not a good performance as it was outgained and it has been outgained in five of six games on the season. The loss of its quarterback and top running back have hurt the offense and the Cajuns have struggled on defense in a big way as they are ranked No. 120 in points allowing and No. 121 in total defense. Sometimes, revenge can be overrated or at least overstated but not in this case. Arkansas St. went to Louisiana last season as a five-point favorite and came away with a five-point loss to the Cajuns but it was a game it never should have lost. The Red Wolves outgained Louisiana 521-292 but they threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown and they struggled in the redzone with six possessions inside the 13-yard line but they turned the ball over on downs twice and had to settle for two field goals as well. The loss snapped an 18-game conference winning streak and denied a chance to win the conference championship outright so to say this game has been circled would be an understatement. 10* (306) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Houston came through for us last night as the Rockets rallied from a 17-point deficit to defeat the Warriors outright with a 122-121 victory. The hype for that game was huge obviously and Houston is now set to play its first back-to-back of the season. This is always a positive situation to go against and even more so when a team is coming off a big win which is the case for the Rockets who could show up in letdown mode. Sacramento enters another season of more questions than answers after it cleared house toward the end of last season. The Kings finished 8-17 after trading DeMarcus Cousins and they also got rid of Rudy Gay and Darren Collison which were their three top scorers accounting for nearly 50 ppg. While it may seem grim, Sacramento had an outstanding draft as it got De'Aaron Fox, Justin Jackson and Harry Giles in the first round and Frank Mason III in the second round so the future looks extremely bright. Of course, we are concerned about tonight and with so many new faces, chemistry heads to the forefront but all indications are that the teams is gelling well together. The Kings will rely on the knowledge of their veterans and hope the youngsters learn quickly, especially when it comes to facing James Harden and Chris Paul although Paul tweaked an ankle last night so he could be limited. Houston swept this series last year as it won all four games but those were much different scenarios. Three of the victories over the Kings came after losses in the Rockets previous game while the fourth came after a game against Brooklyn. 10* (720) Sacramento Kings |
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10-18-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-100 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Prior to opening tip last night, the Celtics were 7.5-point favorites when this line opened and because of everything that went down Tuesday night, the line dropped to -5.5 and is down even more as of this morning. Boston suffered a serious blow with the devastating injury to Gordon Hayward and while it tried to make a run behind its fallen teammate, the Celtics fell just short against the Cavaliers in a highly anticipated game to open the season. Boston has lost five of its last six games against the Cavaliers dating back to the NBA playoffs last season and it nearly fought back from an 18-point deficit and an emotional rollercoaster but we can expect a full effort tonight. This is the home opener for the Celtics and this is a game they will be out to win for Hayward, especially after falling just short last night. The Bucks enter the new season with high expectations after making the playoffs last year after a 42-40 campaign. It was an impressive season considering the injuries Milwaukee sustained as the Bucks were without Khris Middleton for 53 games to start the season and Jabari Parker for 31 games to end the season with neither being on the floor together. Parker remains out for another few months and while they are a sleeper in the Eastern Conference with their talent to make a run, they are in a difficult spot tonight with everything that happened on Tuesday. Boston could shut down for this game but we are expecting the exact opposite and we have the value in the line to go with it. 10* (710) Boston Celtics |
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10-17-17 | Rockets +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Golden St. and we know what that means. The Warriors will be lowering their 2016-17 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 16 NBA Champions (Cleveland, Golden St., San Antonio, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 51-81 ATS mark (38.6 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for seven of the last 11 seasons. Golden St. became the first "Super Team" in the NBA and now there are others that will try and catch up including the Rockets who added Chris Paul to form arguably the best backcourt in the league. But it was the addition of PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute that could pay the biggest dividends as they upgrade the perimeter defense. The Rockets also matchup particularly well with Golden St. with the revamped roster so an upset if not out of the question. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Monday Primetime play. We waited on this game for confirmed injury reports and Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota has been upgraded to probable which is good news for a team that has dropped two straight games. Both of those were on the road both were horrible efforts as the Titans managed only 14 and 10 points against the Titans and Dolphins respectively so return home should lift them up. The Colts have the third-worst pass defense in the NFL, which could be the perfect recipe for Mariota and the Titans to get the offensive going once again. The Colts are coming off a win last Sunday in overtime at home against San Francisco to improve to 2-3 on the season. The lone victories have come against teams that are a combined 0-12 and both of those were at home. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has gotten more comfortable as the season has progressed but he is still pretty raw and he struggled in his lone road start at Seattle. The Tennessee defense is not as strong as that of the Seahawks but it is good enough to provide pressure and make him uncomfortable. Indianapolis has lost six of its past seven primetime games and is 2-8 in its last 10 with five of those eight losses coming by double digits, and three of the past four have been by 21 or more points. This is the Titans first Monday night appearance since November 2014 so tonight is a big deal in Nashville. This has been a one-way series of late as the Colts have won 11 straight games in the series, and 16 out of the past 17 games. Tonight provides a great opportunity to end this streak as the energized home crowd will provide a big lift for Tennessee. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 8 m | Show |
We steered clear of the Chiefs last week as they defeated Houston Sunday night to improve to 5-0 and they remain the lone undefeated team in the NFL. They are also the only undefeated team against the number and they are once again a public favorite this week, sitting as the second highest consensus home team on the card. Going back to last season, the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games which is pretty incredible for a team that gets very little fanfare. It has been a different team in that Kansas City is getting it done with big plays as opposed to the typical dink-and-dunk approach of past seasons. While the offense is getting the praise, the defense has taken little heat for being ranked No. 27 in the league. It is not one bad aspect as Kansas City has struggled against both the run and pass. The Steelers have been an early season disappointment as they are 3-2 with an embarrassing loss against Jacksonville last week at home while also losing at Chicago three weeks ago in overtime and that is the Bears lone win on the season. Costly turnovers and special teams mistakes have hurt but this is still a dangerous offense with plenty of playmakers that can take advantage of the Kansas City defense. One mainstay is the defense that is ranked No. 6 in points allowed and No. 3 in total defense. Many will point to the fact this is a double-revenge game for the Chiefs so they will be highly motivated for payback but a big concern for Kansas City backers is why is this line so low for supposedly the best team in the NFL playing a team struggling to find it identity? The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (269) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 50 m | Show |
The Rams lost a tough one at home last week against Seattle as it fell by six points despite winning the yardage battle by 134 total yards and now they hit the road for a third time looking to stay undefeated on the highway. They defeated San Francisco and Dallas and are in a good spot to stay unblemished despite this being called a trap game by some coming off a division game with a division game on deck. The fact Los Angeles lost last week is working in our favor this week so there will be no look ahead to Arizona. The Rams possess the second highest scoring offense in the NFL and they are ranked No. 5 in total offense thanks to a resurgent Jared Goff who is managing the game well after struggling in his rookie season where he finished 80th in QBR of all quarterbacks. Jacksonville is also 3-2 on the season following a win in Pittsburgh last week despite getting outgained by 58 total yards as it took advantage of Steelers turnovers that resulted in a pair of defensive touchdowns. The defense has been the story, namely because of last week, but despite ranking No. 5 in points allowed, the Jaguars are No. 14 in total defense so it has been playing the bend and do not break model. This is also affecting the offense as the points off defensive scores have inflated the numbers as Jacksonville is No. 5 in points scored but just No. 19 in total offense. This shows how turnovers can skew a lot of things including records as the Jaguars are top ranked in the NFL in turnover margin so it will be a priority for the Rams to take care of the ball. The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 10* (265) Los Angeles Rams |
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10-15-17 | Lions +6 v. Saints | Top | 38-52 | Loss | -118 | 93 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. One way to look for line value is to look at your power ratings and figure out what the line would be on a neutral field. Add three points for home field advantage and there is your comparable pointspread. In this case, the Lions and Saints are evenly matched on a neutral field which makes New Orleans a three-point favorite at home but somehow this number has gone from a 3.5-point opening to its current line of six points as of Wednesday afternoon. It would not be surprising to see this number come back down a little but nonetheless, the value is clearly on the Lions. Detroit is coming off a loss against the suddenly resurgent Panthers at home and the game was more lopsided as the score indicates as Detroit put up a couple late touchdowns after trailing 27-10. The Lions have been solid on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 10 in scoring offense and No. 11 in scoring defense and they are a half-yard away on offense from being 4-1 instead of 3-2. The Saints looked awful in their first two games against Minnesota and New England as they lost both games by double-digits and were outgained both times by 126 total yards. Then something clicked as they rolled over the Panthers in Carolina before they started their comeback and then shut out the Dolphins in London although that is not saying a lot. The defense was atrocious in those first two games and while it looked better the last two, Carolina is still ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring and Miami is ranked dead last. Detroit should have no issues moving the ball and putting up points. While Drew Brees is known for his success after a bye week, Matthew Stafford is 5-0 ATS in his last five games after a bye while the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (257) Detroit Lions |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We played against Minnesota on Monday as it won in Chicago but failed to cover and now the Vikings go from a road favorite to a home underdog which is a great situation to play into. Minnesota is 3-2 to start the season and will be without San Bradford again this week which is a good thing as he was clearly not right last week when he made the start. Case Keenum came in and played a great game as he went 17-21 for 140 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings have outgained four of five opponents including all three home games where they have covered 24 of their last 32 games. Green Bay came from behind last week against the Cowboys, scoring the game winning touchdown with 11 seconds remaining. That was a huge road victory for the Packers and a letdown is always a possibility and like the Vikings, they switch roles, going from a road underdog to a road favorite. Green Bay has been outgained in each of its last two games despite winning and now faces the 7th ranked defense in the NFL. While Minnesota did get to face Mitchell Trubisky last week, it has already faced Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford. Going back to the start of last season, the Vikings have held 19 of 21 opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing. While Green Bay has owned the NFC North, it has lost two of the last three meetings and going back, the Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. This is a huge game for Minnesota to keep pace in the division as a trip later in the season to Green Bay could result in a 0-2 record against the Packers should they lose this one. 10* (260) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
The Patriots improved to 3-2 with a win in Tampa Bay last Thursday night but it has been outgained in four of five games so they have been far from the same team we are accustomed to. To their credit, the Patriots have played the 3rd ranked schedule in the NFL so they now finally get a break. In addition to taking a step down in competition, they are playing on an extended break which is the second time this season they have played following a Thursday and the first time resulted in a 16-point win in New Orleans. Going back, Tom Brady has won eight straight games following a Thursday game, winning those by an average 19.8 ppg. The problem for the Patriots has been the defense but it looked its best all season against the Buccaneers and now faces the No. 26 ranked defense in the league. The Jets are off to a surprising 3-2 start despite being near the bottom of the NFL in both offense and defense but they have had the luxury of facing the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns the last three weeks and overall, they have played the No. 27 schedule in the league. Despite the winning record, they are ahead of only three teams in the current power rankings and while one of those is the Browns who they just defeated, they were outgained by 207 yards against Cleveland. New York has held its own against the Patriots at home over the last few years with four straight covers but this is a completely downgraded version of the past editions. Even though New England knows what it will be facing, this is still a divisional rivalry so it will not be taking this team lightly, especially knowing it is tied for the lead in the AFC East. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (253) New England Patriots |
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10-14-17 | Oregon +10.5 v. Stanford | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. After a 3-0 start, the Ducks have dropped two of their last three games including a 23-point loss last week at home against Washington St. They were down by just three at halftime but were outscored 20-0 in the second half as the offense committed three turnovers and turned the ball over on downs which directly led to 13 points for the Cougars on drives totaling only 87 yards. If they limit the mistakes, they have a chance to win but now it is bounce back time catching double-digits against a team that is not that much better as the power ranking difference between the two teams is just eight spots. Stanford is also 4-2 with losses against USC and San Diego St. but it has bounced back with three straight wins, none of which have been overly impressive. A 24-point win over UCLA looks good but the Cardinal were actually outgained in that game as they took advantage of four turnovers and 13 penalties for 132 yards by the Bruins. Stanford is outgaining opponents by only 13.5 ypg compared to Oregon which has a +155.7 ypg differential and while schedules can often play a role on these variances. The Stanford schedule is ranked No. 14 while the Ducks have played the No. 45 ranked slate so it is not a huge difference in that regard. Slowing down or at least matching the Stanford running game is key and Oregon has a very formidable front seven and it has won the yardage battle in five of six games. Ducks quarterback Braxton Burmeister was less than average in his first career start but he now has a game under his belt and will be facing a much weaker defense this week as Stanford is ranked No. 102 in total defense and will be without two of its top defenders for the first half because of targeting suspensions. The Ducks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (211) Oregon Ducks |
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10-14-17 | UCLA v. Arizona +1 | Top | 30-47 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. It has been a long time since Arizona has been relevant in the national picture and while that will not be changing this season, the Wildcats are showing signs of taking steps forward. They are 3-2 on the season and the two losses could have resulted in wins as they lost to Houston by three points and lost to Utah by six points despite outgaining the Utes by 107 total yards as they were done in by five turnovers including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. Arizona is coming off a 45-point performance on offense at Colorado last Saturday and it looks like a new star has been born. Quarterback Khalil Tate made his first start and it was a memorable one as he rushed for 327 yards on 14 carries (23.4 ypc) and four touchdowns while throwing for 154 yards and a touchdown on 12-13 passing. UCLA has allowed 48 and 58 points in its two road games and this less than physical defense is bound to get demolished once again. The Bruins are ranked No. 120 in scoring defense and No. 124 in total defense so the Wildcats will again be able to move the ball at will. UCLA does possess one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Josh Rosen as he runs a potent offense but coming into the season, expectations were high for him and the teams and both have been shot down with a pair of losses. The Wildcats defense is far from stout but they have improved by over 50 ypg and close to 12 ppg from last season so the unit is heading in the right direction. UCLA has won and covered five straight meetings in this series and the Wildcats will be amped up for revenge. 10* (178) Arizona Wildcats |
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10-14-17 | Charlotte v. Western Kentucky -16 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
Western Kentucky is one of three teams, Connecticut and BYU being the other two, that have lost every game against the number this season and once we get this far into the season, this is the time to ride these teams if the matchup is favorable for a cover and this is one of those for the Hilltoppers. They are 3-2 straight up including two straight wins which were far from impressive as they beat Ball St. and UTEP but failed to cover as double-digit favorites. They come in as a double-digit chalk again but this is the game to make a statement as Western Kentucky is still a favorite in the C-USA East Division. Part of the issue has been learning a new offensive system under new head coach Mike Sanford Jr. as they have adjusted slower than expected and after averaging over 500 ypg and over 44 ppg in each of the last three seasons, you must ask why to try and fix something that is not broken. Quarterback Mike White put up incredible numbers last season but he lost over 3,000 of his 4,363 yards passing last year so adjusting to new receivers can take time. Additionally, Western Kentucky is averaging 32 carries per game and has been awful in averaging 2.4 ypc but now it faces a bad Charlotte defense that is should be able to tear apart. Somehow the 49ers allowed just 14 points last week to Marshall but the Thundering Herd got into Charlotte territory seven times and managed only two scores as they stepped on their own feet. The offense has been worse as the 49ers have scored seven points or less in four of six games and the unit is ranked No. 119 in total offense and No. 127 in scoring offense. 10* (164) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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10-14-17 | Navy +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
Navy is 5-0 for just the second time since 1979 following a scare last week against Air Force as the Midshipmen blew a 38-17 lead but scored the winning touchdown in the final minute. They were outgained for the first time all season in that game against a surprisingly good defense in Air Force and now they get a shot to really rack up the yards. Navy is ranked first in the country in rushing offense and will square off against the No. 94 rushing defense but this is a game where they can also take advantage of the porous Tigers passing defense as we have Navy do the trickery in the past as this is a great opportunity to keep Memphis on its toes the entire game. On the other side, this is a fairly average defense and going against the Memphis offense will be a challenge but the Midshipmen have held their own against Tulsa and Tulane, two vastly different offenses showing they are not weak in one particular area. Memphis put up 70 points last week but that came against a Connecticut defense that is dead last in the nation overall and we learned our lesson in that one by playing on the Huskies. Navy returned eight starters from last season on defense and while the defensive numbers last year were gaudy, another season together pays dividends. A factor in why the defense has succeeded is that the Midshipmen are second in the country in time of possession which keeps the stop unit fresh and the opposing offenses off the field. Navy held Memphis to 20 and 28 points the last two seasons and those Tigers offenses were nearly as good as this edition. Playing against team in certain spots coming off scoring 50 or more points has been highly profitable as the value has shifted to the opposing team. 10* (193) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-14-17 | Ohio -9.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 48-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our MAC Game of the Year. Bowling Green picked up its first win of the season as it won at Miami Ohio last week in a game it had no business winning. The Falcons entered the fourth quarter down by five points but they took the lead after a touchdown with 12:15 remaining. The RedHawks were forced to punt after that but got the ball back after a missed field goal and drove down to the Bowling Green one-yard line. They then proceeded to fumble and the Falcons returned it 93 yards for a touchdown to seal the upset as 17-point underdogs. Miami outgained the Falcons by 113 yards but failed to score a touchdown after quarterback Gus Ragland went down in the third quarter. Ohio is coming off a similar type game where it lost to Central Michigan but won the yardage battle. The Bobcats were stung by four turnovers including two fumbles inside Central Michigan territory, one at the three-yard line. Additionally, they had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown right before halftime. The Bowling Green cover was its first of the season as it started out 0-5 ATS and on the season, the Falcons are getting outgained by 162.4 ypg so they have been completely dominated. You can make the argument that the first victory can energize a team going forward but coming into the season, it was a rebuild from the start so a win like that can linger on too long and affect preparation next time out. Ohio has won six straight games following a regular season loss dating back to 2015 and we can expect another bounce back effort this week. Bowling Green has covered just one of its last 10 home games while Ohio has covered 10 of its last 12 road games. 10* (119) Ohio Bobcats |
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10-14-17 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -3.5 | Top | 35-46 | Win | 100 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
We are going to back West Virginia here to pull off the big win as the Big XII has shown to be very volatile this year. Texas Tech is 4-1 on the season with very unimpressive wins as a victory over Houston by three points is the best of the bunch. The Red Raiders have covered every game and that is a big reason this line has gone from 6.5 points at opening to its current 3.5 as of Thursday afternoon. These are streaks we love going against and it only gets better when the toughest test of the season awaits and this is it. We played against the Red Raiders last week and Kansas made a game of it for a while but Texas Tech ran away with by scoring the final 30 points of the game. The offense is once again leading the way as it is ranked No. 7 in total offense but the defense is once again a liability and it will be a big problem this week. West Virginia is 3-2 with identical 31-24 losses against Virginia Tech to open the season and TCU last week. The most frustrating thing is that the Mountaineers won the yardage battle in both of those games by over 100 yards but they were back up with poor field position most of the time in both. West Virginia is ranked No. 3 in total offense and should be able to move the ball with ease against the Red Raiders defense. A weaker schedule has aided in the big numbers getting in those rhythms is just as important to prepare for these bigger games. While the schedule has been softer for the Mountaineers, they can claim they passed the test in their two big games against the Hokies and Horned Frogs and despite the losses, they come in with great confidence. 10* (138) West Virginia Mountaineers |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse +22.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CBF Friday Star Attraction. Syracuse has had this game circled for a while as it got thumped in Clemson last season 54-0 and it was the game that basically ruined its chances of going to a bowl game. The Tigers knocked out Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey early in that game which sent the Orange on a 0-4 tailspin to end the season 4-8. The Clemson fans were not shy about it either in mocking it and these teams have really become to hate each other going back to the Scott Shafer days as Syracuse head coach. The Orange are coming off a lethargic effort against Pittsburgh where they won 27-24 and the lookahead to the Clemson game can be partially to blame. While an upset here may seem impossible, it may be the only chance for a possible bowl bid as Syracuse needs three wins with six games left and it has road games at Miami, Florida St. and Louisville. Clemson is coming off another less than average effort against a team it should have rolled and that has been the story this season as the Tigers have gone through the motions against Boston College and Wake Forest but have played at a high level against the higher competition and Syracuse definitely fits the former. It will be interesting to see how Clemson handles quarterback Kelly Bryant who hurt his ankle last game but has been upgraded to probable. With a bye next week, the Tigers likely will not push him hard. Syracuse has the offensive system that can keep up in this matchup which Clemson did not see last season when Dungey left and playing at home helps that side of the ball out. The irony is it's the Orange defense that is surging at that year two, sixth game mark under Dino Babers, posting one of the best third-down defensive marks in college football. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games when getting 20 or more points. 10* (110) Syracuse Orange |
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10-13-17 | Calgary v. Hamilton +10 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER CATS for our CFL Game of the Week. Calgary is the hottest team in the CFL with 10 straight wins to move to 12-1-1 on the season but this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things. The Stampeders have a 2.5-game lead in the West Division and all they need to do is win one of their last three games, which are all divisional games, after this one to make it eight victories in the West Division which would give them the tiebreaker. To no surprise, the linesmakers have adjusted the number based on the winning run but this is by far the most they have been favored by on the highway all season. Calgary is 6-1 ATS at home with all those spreads being a touchdown or more while it is 3-3-1 ATS on the road with all those spreads being less than a touchdown. The main concern now is to stay healthy so pouring it on here is not a priority. Hamilton has turned things around since its 0-8 start, going 4-2 since June Jones took over as head coach. The playoffs are still within reach as five teams are going for the final two spots and none of those have winning records and while a loss here will not mathematically eliminate them, it will be hard to recover. Tiger Cats quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is flourishing as they have scored an average of 26.3 ppg since he took over as the starter. Prior to that, Hamilton's scoring average was 18.5 ppg. Like Calgary, Hamilton has significant splits based on the number as it is 4-1 ATS when getting a touchdown or more while going 1-7-1 ATS in all other games. Additionally, Hamilton has not forgotten the 60-1 beatdown in took in Calgary at the end of July. 10* (602) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 58 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. Two of the top teams in the NFC square off on a short week with the winner sitting in good shape as we get closer to the halfway point of the NFL season. Both teams are playing better than what was expected coming into the season and in this matchup, we are backing the better offense which usually is not the case with teams such as these that are so close in record and power rankings. Carolina allowed a total of six points in its first two games against the 49ers and Bills but the Panthers have allowed 29.3 ppg over their last three games, all of which have come against very potent offenses. The bad news is that they face another strong offense as the Eagles are ranked in the top ten in almost every major offensive category including No. 3 in total offense, No. 5 in rushing offense, No. 9 in passing offense and No. 6 in scoring offense. Through five games, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown for just five fewer yards (1,362 yards) than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, and his 10 touchdowns are one fewer than New England's Tom Brady. Wentz is also protecting the ball better this season. He threw touchdowns to four different targets Sunday, which speaks to the upgrade in weapons thanks to offseason spending as well as improvement from homegrown players. Carolina is ranked outside the top half of all of the aforementioned offensive categories even with solid performances the last two games. The Eagles effectively shut down Melvin Gordon and had blanked Kareem Hunt for a good portion of their matchup against the Chiefs and they are ranked No. 2 in rushing defense so they can concentrate on slowing down Cam Newton and the rejuvenated passing game. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (103) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
The Sun Belt Conference dominates the early part of the week and it starts Wednesday with South Alabama traveling to Troy for what is turning into a big rivalry despite still in its infancy stage. These schools are just three hours apart so proximity and recruiting spearhead these teams that are already hating each other. Troy must contend with the emotions of not only a rivalry game but also notching one of its biggest wins against LSU on Sept. 30. It was the Trojans first win on the road against a ranked opponent since joining the FBS in 2001, and the victory drew plenty on national headlines so the pressure is on to show it was no fluke. Prior to that win in which the Tigers did not show up at home, the Trojans has not defeated any noteworthy team and struggled in all three FBS games. South Alabama has struggled to a 1-4 start but a win here could completely turn its season around as the remaining schedule is very doable. The Jaguars opened the season with losses against Mississippi and Oklahoma St. before beating Alabama A&M of the FCS. In their last two games, they lost to Idaho in overtime and Louisiana Tech who they had against the ropes late in the fourth quarter. South Alabama was getting 11.5 points against the Bulldogs and now it is getting five points more against a team that is ranked only 14 spots higher than Louisiana Tech in the power rankings as that LSU victory has inflated this line that is still fresh on the public mind. This series has been intense as three of the five meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less and this is by far the biggest number the Jaguars have gotten against Troy. South Alabama gets quarterback Dallas Davis back for this game after he missed the Vandals game. 10* (101) South Alabama Jaguars |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. We are going with a rookie quarterback on national television and while that may seem like a bad move, things will not get any worse for the Bears. They have played horrendous on the road but are a play away from being 2-0 at home against the Falcons and Steelers and this is with former quarterback Mike Glennon playing average. Chicago was getting around a touchdown in both of those home games and while they are not getting that number here, the Bears are still a home underdog and we are not really sure they should be. The Vikings should get Sam Bradford back tonight at quarterback which is an upgrade from Case Keenum who had one great game against the Buccaneers but struggled against the Steelers and Lions. But, it is still unclear how healthy Bradford really is considering the knee could not be played on a few weeks ago and it has been troublesome in the past. The Vikings stop unit is ranked No. 9 in both total defense and scoring defense so they have been able to keep games close as the offense has sputtered to No. 21 in points scored. On the other side, the Bears have allowed 26 ppg which is ranked No. 27 in the NFL but that is skewed. Chicago has allowed four scoring drives that consisted of 3, 7, 13 and 16 yards as turnovers have been the difference where it has given it away 10 times which is tied for third most in the NFL. To put this in perspective, the Bears are ranked No. 6 in the NFL in total defense. Chicago has covered four straight games after scoring 15 or fewer points while the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (476) Chicago Bears |
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10-09-17 | Edmonton -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Today is Thanksgiving in Canada and whichever team can walk away with a victory here will be giving thanks that their massive losing streak has ended. Montreal has dropped seven straight games after a 3-4 start while Edmonton has lost six games in a row following a perfect 7-0 streak. All losing streaks are not the same however and these two skids are very different. The Eskimos have lost some close games over this stretch and they have actually outgained the opposition in exactly half of those games while getting outgained by 10 yards in another. It has not been that good for the Alouettes however as they have lost six of seven games by at least 14 points and while they have won the yardage battle twice by minimal amounts, they were outgained by an average of 213.8 ypg in the other five games. The playoffs are no longer an option for Montreal so the level of motivation is in question but for the Eskimos, there is still a lot on the line. They are sitting in fourth place in the CFL and can tie Saskatchewan for third place with a win with only four games left. Edmonton has improved its offense as it has now added talented and well-rounded running back C.J. Gable to their stable of dynamic weapons. The Eskimos won the first meeting at home by just four points but they have dominated this series as going back, they have won seven straight meetings. Typically, we like to play teams like Montreal that are on significant losing streaks both straight up and against the number but when we have a team on the other side in a similar skid with much more talent and much more at stake, we will lay the number. 10* (631) Edmonton Eskimos |