Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Star Attraction. Iowa St. is in a favorable spot as it is coming off its bye week following a pair of wins to improve to 4-3 on the season. One of the losses came against Oklahoma with the other two coming by a combined 10 points against Iowa and Ohio. The Cyclones offense struggled in those two games but they have averaged 27.8 ppg over their last four games yet it is the defense that is once again the story of this team. They are No. 28 in total defense and have allowed 20 points or less in five of seven games and with playing the No. 15 ranked schedule. Baylor is coming off a win over Cincinnati last week by a field goal to move to 2-4 with the wins coming by a combined four points. The Bears are back home where they have lost all four games and the markets have really flipped on them as they were -26.5-point favorites against Texas St. in a loss and have now been underdogs in every game sense. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 outscored by seven or more ppg in the first half, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 84-40 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Western Michigan is 2-6 overall including 0-5 on the road going up against a 4-4 Eastern Michigan team that is 4-0 at home and the Broncos are favored. You know where we are going here. The five losses have come against three teams from the ACC, Big Ten and SEC while the two other losses were against Toledo and Ohio, the two best teams in the MAC. The remainer of the schedule is in their favor and Western Michigan has to start here to keep bowl eligibility alive. Eastern Michigan has remained afloat that to an easy schedule. Despite playing one of the worst schedules in the country at No. 143, the Eagles have one of the worst offenses as they are No. 115 or worse in all four stat categories. The four wins have come against one FCS teams and the other three which are a combined 4-20. Sore you can lump the Broncos into there but they have had a different road to where they are and have performed better on both sides despite the huge disparity in competition. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after four or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (149) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Massachusetts has lost 24 straight road games before upsetting New Mexico St. in its season opener but that was a misleading final where it won the turnover battle 3-0. The Minutemen has digressed back to their old ways and have lost seven straight games and will have to wait for next season to go to their first bowl game since 1972. Defensively they have been horrible, allowing the most points in the country and ranking No. 123 in total defense which puts Army in a great spot. The Black Knights have lost four straight games including getting shut out in their last two games but those were against Troy and LSU. While they have not put up the typical gaudy rushing yards, they have still had success and face the second worst rushing defense in the country. With only five losses, a bowl game is still possible and the schedule sets up well the rest of the way with no true road games remaining. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situations is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (124) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. We won with Orlando in its opener as it easily defeated a bad Houston team by 30 points and that is affecting this number even after only one game and partly because they are playing what is considered another bad team. The Magic finished strong last season and as mentioned, this should be a team on the rise and one that can surprise but they are getting no breaks here as after a home opener, they have to head out west for four games including a pair of games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers so this could be a game they easily look past. Portland was overmatched in its opener against the Clippers as it never led and trailed by as many as 30 points before closing the gap in the fourth quarter. The Blazers actually shot a respectable 47 percent from the floor but were outscored by 18 points from long range and could not recover from a very early 12-point deficit as it just got worse. This is going to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference but the Blazers can be played in opportunistic spots and this is one of those that we can take advantage of. 10* (552) Portland Trail Blazers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. Toronto opened the season with a lethargic three-point win over Minnesota as it shot just 40 percent from the floor while going to the line only 16 times and converting only 11 of those. The Raptors do have a solid core starting lineup but a weak bench that contributed only 16 points while picking up 11 fouls. They let go of head coach Nick Nurse which was strange in itself, lost Fred Van Vleet to free agency and two of their three best players will be free agents next season and with nothing coming in for improvement, the motivation of this team is in question. Chicago got crushed at home in its opener by 20 points against Oklahoma City as a slight closing favorite and it is in a good bounce back spot before hitting the road for three straight games so this is an early big game. It was a bad shooting night against the Thunder as the Bulls hit only 41 percent from the floor including 29 percent from long range with the starters going only 26-68 (38 percent) and we can expect a better effort here. This is a team that is marginal playoff team but there is continuity with their top eight players back. 10* (544) Chicago Bulls

This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. Boston and Miami are both coming off close wins in their season openers with the Celtics winning on the road and the Heat barely taking care of business at home and now the venues change. The Celtics were huge down the stretch namely Kristaps Porzingis who scored nine points in the final two minutes including the go ahead three-pointer, part of a closing 13-3 run. It was a very efficient game as Boston shot 48 percent from the floor and 85 percent from the free throw line and now it is ultimate revenge time. The Celtics nearly came back from a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals but were bounced in Game Seven by 19 points on this home floor and it is early payback time. Miami built a 19-point lead against Detroit on Wednesday but had to hold off a late rally for the one point victory. We played against the Heat which last season were a pretty average team in a weak conference but caught fire at the right time and came in out of the gate overvalued. They shot just 40.2 percent from the floor including 36 percent from long range and now have the worst road opener after that escape. 10* (542) Boston Celtics

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. We lost with the Lakers on Tuesday as they rallied from 18 points down to pull within three points in the fourth quarter but Denver used a late run to pull away. LeBron James led with 21 points but played only 29 minutes and he could see that increase in the second game. It looked like Anthony Davis was on his way to a night as he had 17 first-half points but did not score in the second half as he was 0-5 in the third quarter and missed his only shot in the fourth quarter. Overall, the Lakers were outscored by 17 points with him on the floor in 34 minutes so a bounce back is expect from him. Phoenix snuck out a win over Golden St. as it won by four quarters in a game that swayed. It was a tied game after the first quarter and then Phoenix pulled ahead by 15 points at halftime before the Warriors outscored the Suns by 21 points in the third quarter before Phoenix dominated late with a 28-18 fourth quarter edge. The Suns benefited from the Warriors going just 10-43 from long range while being without Bradley Beal who is doubtful again as is Devin Booker. This is a good buy spot for the Lakers following the opening night loss. 10* (532) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. This is the get right game for Buffalo as it is coming off three straight poor efforts and was a yard away from suffering three straight losses. The injuries have piled up on the defensive side of the ball and while the Bills allowed Mac Jones to go off, they should be in a better spot at home against Baker Mayfield. Despite the recent struggles, Buffalo is still ranked No. 1 in net EPA and No. 4 in net DVOA and while it has played the No. 25 ranked schedule, Tampa Bay is right in line with that with the No. 23 ranked slate. The offense needs to clean it up as it has committed six turnovers the last three games. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight games while getting outgained by wide margins in both. The Buccaneers have gone just 1-3 at home but they are 2-0 on the road yet that comes with the caveat of winning the turnover margin 6-1. Despite playing the soft schedule as well, the Buccaneers are ranked just No. 15 in net EPA and No. 20 in net DVOA and have been outgained in four of their six games overall. Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS off a division game and it is 1-9 ATS after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. This game feels a lot like the first situation where Buffalo lost a divisional road game and returned home and blasted the Raiders. 10* (110) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the GOERGIA SOUTHERN PANTHERS for our Thursday Star Attraction. Laying the short price in this rivalry with the home team. Georgia Southern is 5-2 with the two losses coming on the road at Wisconsin and James Madison and while neither game was competitive based on the final score, the Eagles were right there in the stats but the lost the runover battle by a combined 9-0. Turnovers were the difference in this meeting last season as Georgia Southern was -4 to make it three straight losses against the Panthers so revenge will add to the motivation. Georgia St. has won and covered two straight games to improve to 6-1 and that record is certainly playing a part in this number. The Eagles do not have any glaring weakness but they are middle of the road in most every statistical category and this is with playing the No. 109 ranked schedule. They run the ball well and will be facing the No. 39 ranked rushing defense and allowing just 3.7 ypc. Both teams convert 51.5 percent on third down but it is Georgia Southern that has the defensive edge, allowing just 30.8 percent compared to the Eagles that allow 45.4 percent. 10* (114) Georgia Southern Panthers

This is a play on the UTAH JAZZ as part of our NBA Wednesday Triple Play. Sacramento was the surprise team in the Western Conference last season as it made it to the postseason for the first time in 16 years. The Kings were probably still overvalued despite winning the Pacific Division as they had a lot of things go their way. The Kings were the healthiest team in the league last season as their 55 games missed were the fewest in an 82-game schedule since 2015-16. Sacramento has everyone back and it will be in the mix again but now the markets are on top of the numbers. Utah finished last season 37-45 which was considered a huge success considering it was expected to be a full blown rebuilding year. The Jazz still secured a lottery pick and had three first round picks so the roster is loaded with future talent but they will rely on veteran Lauri Markkanen and All-Rookie center Walker Kessler. They also added John Collins and it was clear first year head coach Will Hardy knows what he is doing. Utah struggled on the road with only 14 wins but was 23-18 at home and catch a good opening number. 10* (524) Utah Jazz

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Sam Houston St. lost again last week to fall to 0-7 but is has been competitive for the most part in its first season at the FBS level. Three of the last four losses have been by one possession including the loss to Florida International last Wednesday despite outgaining the Panthers 410-331 as double overtime did the Bearkats in. A last second field goal for the Panthers tied the game in regulation so it was just another bad break. Two other losses came against Air Force and Liberty which came into this week a combined 14-0. The offense has really struggled but has improved after a dreadful start while the defense has played good enough to keep a lot of the games close. UTEP is also coming off a loss last Wednesday as it fell to New Mexico St. by 21 points while getting outgained by 135 total yards. The Miners are now 2-6 so one more loss means no bowl game so there will be motivation but the quarterback play remains a big issue. They have been down to their third and fourth stringers the last few games as original starter Gavin Hardison has not seen action since September 23 and he is again questionable. If he does get back on the field, there will have been no rhythm as he has not practiced because of tendonitis in his throwing arm. The defense has not helped the offense as UTEP has not been a takeaway machine as it has forced only five turnovers in seven games. 10* (108) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS as part of our NBA Wednesday Triple Play. Detroit finished with the worst record in the NBA at 17-65 in large part to the injury to Cade Cummingham after just 12 games. He was averaging 21.4 ppg through his first 11 games so that loss was huge. He is healthy to start the season and this is a young corps that could make some big improvements in a weak Eastern Conference. The addition of head coach Monty Williams was a solid move and they will be undervalued early based on the record from last year and in this game especially with who they are playing. Miami made an unprecedented playoff run last season to make it to the NBA Finals before losing to Denver. The Heat were hoping to make a splash with the acquisition of Damian Lillard but that fell through and now they basically have the same group back. The Heat had 53 wins in 2021-22 while last season they only won 44 games but awoke in the postseason and despite that run, this is still a middle of the road Eastern Conference playoff team and their 44.5 win total is saying that. 10* (515) Detroit Pistons

This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC as part of our NBA Wednesday Triple Play. Orlando should a team on the rise. The Magic went 34-48 last season but after starting 5-20, they went 29-28 the rest of the way and now have the same young roster back but with a big year of experience. Head coach Jamahl Mosley was asked how that finish can help and he said because of the roster continuity, he noticed players came into camp this year with more confidence than before. Additionally, they added lottery pick Anthony Black so strengthen the backcourt even more. Houston had a miserable season at 22-60 which was the third straight season it finished dead last in the Western Conference. The Rockets should be better based on their 32.5 win total with the addition of some key parts with Fred Van Vleet and Dillion Brooks and probably most important, head coach Ime Udoka who will bring in a more defensive approach. With the heavy turnover though, it could take a while to get things going so until we see something, they should be a play against in certain spots. 10* (512) Orlando Magic

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Denver is starting the defense of its NBA Title so Tuesday the Nuggets will be dropping their championship banner and receiving their championship rings and this has been a lucrative situation over the years. Going against the reigning champions for the first couple weeks of the season has been the way to go as the numbers are overpriced early on. Surprisingly, Denver was not as dominating as one would think as the Nuggets were 12th in the league in points scored and eighth in points allowed last season. Additionally, Denver was 20th in the NBA in turnovers while going 19th in forcing turnovers. To the Nuggets credit, they have one of the best home floors in the league as Denver last year had a 34–7 regular-season record, which it followed up with a 10–1 mark in the playoffs. Los Angeles made a huge last season run to get into the playoffs and made an even more impressive run in the postseason. The Lakers finished sixth in the NBA in scoring while also finishing sixth in rebounds. The magic number here is 113 as Los Angeles put together a 33-20 ATS record and were 36-17 overall when scoring more than 112.5 points. There is also revenge in play for the Lakers who were swept in the Western Conference Finals last season. 10* (501) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Western Kentucky is coming off a loss to Jacksonville St. which was its first conference loss to drop to 2-1 and 4-3 overall. Two of the three losses were by a field goal with the third coming against Ohio St. with all of those taking place on the road. The Hilltoppers are still in position to run the table with three of their next four games taking place at home and the two remaining road games are at UTEP and Florida International. This is the first home game in a month as they are off back-to-back road games with a bye sandwiched in-between those. Liberty remained undefeated with a win at Middle Tennessee St. last week and it is already bowl eligible at 7-0. Clearly this is one of the best teams in Conference USA where the Flames are already 5-0 but two of those wins against brand new FBS entrants Sam Houston St. and Jacksonville St. with another coming against 1-4 Florida International. They have been fortunate with takeaways as they have won the turnover battle in five of their seven games and their +9 overall turnover margin is tied for third best in the country. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (104) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Monday Primetime Dominator. The 49ers lost their first game of the season last week and this is a good bounce back spot and the line says that. The injury report was not on their side with Chrisian McCaffrey leaving the game last week but he is now probable. He sat out the first two days of practice ahead of this week but was able to get on the field Saturday. Despite the loss last week, San Francisco is still ranked No.1 in net EPA and No. 1 in DVOA and catch a good match up. We won with Minnesota last week but it was an ugly win as a fumble return was the difference. They were outgained 275-220 and the Justin Jefferson absence was evident. The schedule has been middle of the road at No. 15 with the two wins coming against two of the four worst teams in DVOA. The Vikings are ranked No. 25 in defensive EPA and overall No. 20 in net EPA. Minnesota has gone 2-8 as underdogs of more than six points under Kirk Cousins. Additionally, Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against trams averaging 130 or more rushing ypg. 10* (473) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The best thing that could have happened to the Eagles was losing last week as it should have woke them up as they were sleepwalking through the first third of the season and they needed that kick in the ass prior to this matchup. It has been an uneven start for quarterback Jalen Hurts but overall the offense has been solid with a No. 5 ranking in EPA and No. 7 in DVOA and have an excellent matchup this week unlike the one against the Jets last week. The running game has a significant edge. Miami continues to roll as it is 5-1 after erasing a 14-0 deficit against Carolina to win by 21 points but this is not Carolina. The Dolphins fit all the metrics on offense as it is one of the most explosive in recent years as it has scored 31 or more points four times. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is having an MVP caliber season but has not faced much pressure. The five wins have come against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate while the one loss came against the Bills whose 31.1 percent pressure rate is tops in the league. Now the Dolphins face the Eagles which are No. 4 in pressure rate at 29.1 percent. Overall, the Eagles have allowed 20 points or fewer four times as well. Defensively, Miam is not exceptional but has not needed to be as it is ranked No. 23 in EPA and No. 27 in DVOA so the Eagles can keep up. One intangible that can make a difference in margin games if close is special teams with the Eagles being No. 3 in special teams DVOA and Miami checking in at No. 30. 10* (472) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is not the best spot for the Chargers coming off a short week and playing a team coming off a mini bye but the fact it is a divisional game compensates that. Los Angeles struggled against Dallas with its offense with Justin Herbert missing many throws but he should bounce back here. The Chargers three losses this season have been by three points or less and going back to last season, their last eight losses have been by a touchdown or less. In this series, five of the last six games have been decided by six points or less with the lone exception being a 17-point Chargers win so they have been one team that has matched up well with the Chiefs. Defensively, they are making strides even though they are down in the metrics but they will be facing a Kansas city offense that still is not clicking with the exception of a game against the Bears. The Chiefs are coming off a win over the Broncos to make it five straight victories but only one of those games was against a team with a playoff possibility, the Jaguars, with three of the teams being a combined 4-14 and the other boing the 3-3 Jets. One edge for the Chargers is to slow the game down with its improved running game that is ranked No. 3 in EPA going up against a Chiefs defense ranked No. 19 in rushing EPA. That will dictate a shorter game which again favored the overpriced divisional line. The records may show a 2.5-game difference but these teams are more evenly matched especially with history over the last few years. 10* (467) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. This is a good bounce back game for Seattle after coming up short in Cincinnati last week following its bye week. We expected Joe Burrow to have a big game which he did not as the Seattle defense held its own and is moving up in the metrics and has an easy matchup at home this week. It was the offense that stumbled against the Bengals as they made four trips into the redzone and came away with only three points. The Bengals utilized their relatively high pressure rate to get to Geno Smith but now he faces the team with the lowest pressure rate in the league. Overall, Seattle has the No. 8 ranked offensive EPA including No. 1 in rushing and should be in line for its biggest game facing the No. 26 ranked EPA against the run. Arizona opened the season with some surprising results as it took Washington to the end, built a massive lead over the Giants before a second half collapse and then defeated the Cowboys but the Cardinals have regressed over their last three games. This is more of the expected norm than to go back to the unexpected early results as this is not a good roster. The Cardinals have played well at home but have struggled on the road on both sides. Offensively, they are averaging only 13.7 ppg as quarterback Joshua Dobbs has had two of his three worst games on the highway and overall has put up passer ratings of 57.6 and 58.5 the last two games. Seattle is banged up in the secondary but that is not an issue here especially knowing it is ranked No. 4 in pass win rate. 10* (464) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We won with the Browns last week as they handed San Francsico its first loss of the season and that was a big play against the 49ers as much as it was a play on the Browns and its worked out as expected. The outright win was not as expected but that sets up a great spot this week in a play against situation as Cleveland is now overvalued hitting the road against what we feel is still an undervalued team. Deshaun Watson missed last week and he is questionable this week meaning we could see P.J. Walker again and he was pretty bad completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 192 yards and two interceptions. Cleveland has allowed just 1,002 yards through its first five games which is pretty remarkable considering it is the fewest since 1971 so it will not be easy but this is not a sustainable run. The Colts lost in Jacksonville and it was based on mistakes. They outgained the Jaguars 354-233 but were -3 in turnover margin and that sets them up this week for a bounce back as they return home to get back over .500. Quarterback Gardner Minshew threw for 329 yards so he slung it around which we will need to do here to avoid pressure but three interceptions killed him. The Browns remain No. 1 in defensive EPA and DVOA while Indianapolis has an above average offensive EPA of No. 12 and DVOA of No. 14. The Colts defense is middle of the pack and pace a bad Browns offense with or without Watson as they are No. 29 in offensive EPA and No. 27 in DVOA. 10* (456) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Detroit looks like a team that is going to contend in the NFC and while we lost playing against the Lions last week, we are doing the same this week based on market perception creating value. First and foremost, Baltimore has a better net overall EPA, No. 6 vs. No. 7 while sitting just three spots lower in DVOA which is the more arbitrary of the two metrics. The Lions improved to 5-1 with that win over the Buccaneers but now are playing a second straight road game and one where conditions will be a lot different than last week. That is a big disadvantage and during their four-game winning streak, Detroit has not faced an offense ranked higher than No. 14 in EPA and No. 16 in DVOA and the overall 5-1 record has been aided by playing a schedule ranked No. 28. Baltimore rebounded from its loss at Pittsburgh with a win against Tennessee in London last week and is back home for its first game in a month since the tough loss in overtime against the Colts. The defense has been underrated as the Ravens are No. 5 in overall EPA and No. 2 in overall DVOA with their strength being against the pass which is important here facing Jared Goff and going up against a banged up Lions backfield. Offensively, has been middle of the road and while Lamar Jackson struggles against pressure and blitzing, he faces a Detroit defense that has the third lowest blitz rate in the league. The Lions have a much improved defense but finally see a test after not seeing one in quite some time. 10* (458) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Sunday Free Play. The Raiders had one of the most fortunate covers of the season as they got a late safety to win by four points as a three-point favorite and they have now won two straight games to improve to 3-3. Both of those wins were at home with the other win coming in Denver by a point and this team is a few played away from being 1-5 or potentially 0-6. Las Vegas comes in as a favorite once again, this time on the road and it is an overpriced number as the metrics of these teams are not far off. The Raiders are ranked No. 22 or lower in four of the six EPA categories and have an overall net EPA of No. 23. This offense has been dreadful and while facing a poor defense here, they have faced some bad ones along the way already. Chicago is coming off a tough loss against Minnesota despite outgaining the Vikings as the Bears lost the turnover battle 3-1 and dropped to 1-5. The big news is that Justin Fields had to leave the game and will be replaced this week by Tyson Bagent who was put in a bad spot last week. He fumbled on his first drive which led to a touchdown and then threw a late costly interception but was decent in-between. The good news is that he has had a week to practice with the starters so he will be more prepared against an equally bad defense. The Bears have a net EPA of No. 28 which again is not far off from that of the Raiders. Play (454) Chicago Bears

The NFL is off to another phenomenal start and the domination continues this week with a loaded slate! Matt has won in four of six weeks and he is 22-16 in the NFL YTD! Going back he is a POWERFUL 89-63-1 (+$19,940) in the NFL Regular and Postseason since the start of last season! FIVE Sunday Winners!

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Washington pulled off a big win in one of the better games of the college football season against Oregon as the Ducks handed the Huskies the win with a bad coaching call and then a missed field goal by the Ducks to end it. It was one of the biggest wins in recent memory in Seattle and that showed with the storming of the field making this a great go against spot in a letdown game coupled with laying a huge number this week. The Huskies possess a top five offense but this is a go through the motions type of game while the defense is not very good as Washington is ranked No. 90 in total defense and have allowed 461.7 ypg in three Pac 12 games. Arizona St. has lost five straight games which is playing into this number as well but this is a good spot coming off a bye week as well. The Sun Devils have come to life on offense since head coach Kenny Dillingham took over the offensive play calling and they were coming off their best games of the season with 430 totals yards against California and followed that up with 392 yards against Colorado, both resulting in three-point losses. Another loss came against USC by just 14 points and while they fell to Fresno St. 29-0, eight turnovers will do that. The defense has played well enough at No. 42 in the country to slow the Huskies down a little bit and the new found offense can exploit the weakness of this Washington team. 10* (383) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Pac 12 Game of the Year. USC is coming off a bad loss at Notre Dame last week as the offense could get no consistency going and it did not help that the Trojans committed five turnovers. Quarterback Caleb Williams threw three interceptions after coming into the game with a 22:1 TD/INT ratio so we can chalk that one up that he simply had a bad game. He will have something to prove this week and while he faces another strong defense, it is one that can be exploited through the air. Utah is No. 9 in total defense but that is due to a stout rushing defense as it is No. 45 in passing defense but that is skewed from allowing just 66 yards passing against Weber St. so take that away and they are allowing 240.0 ypg which would drop them all the way down to the low 100s. The Utes are coming off a win over California which was an expected bounce back following their first loss of the season to Oregon St. That was their first dominating win over an FBS opponent as the other three wins have come by an average of nine ppg and two of those were at home where they are nearly unbeatable. This was the possible week that quarterback Cam Rising was going to make his debut but that is looking unlikely as it expected he is going to apply for a medical hardship after he disclosed his knee injury was much worse than just a torn ACL. The passing game has been non-existent and will be unable to take advantage of the weakness of the USC defense. 10* (382) USC Trojans

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Star Attraction. Michigan is clearly the better team in this matchup but rivalry games can be different and this is one of those with these two hated teams. The Wolverines are coming off another blowout win as they rolled over Indiana last week 52-7 and they have won all seven games by more than what they are laying here. That being said, while Michigan St. falls into that no one category, this one is different. Michigan has played the No. 78 ranked schedule in the country with only Maryland having played an easier schedule of all Big Ten teams so the numbers are a bit skewed but what cannot be denied is this defense is for real. The Wolverines are No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 in scoring defense so it will be a challenge for the Spartans. Michigan St. is 2-4 that includes four straight losses including a tough three-point loss at Rutgers last week. It is pretty simple in that the Spartans have to take care of the ball as in the last three losses, they have given it up 12 times and went -6 in margin in those games. A breakeven turnover margin here is sufficient to keep it close enough to stay within margin which is our concern and not a straight up win but anything is possible. The Spartans have a solid defense of their own as they are No. 36 in the country overall and face what has been an average Michigan offense that is No. 54 in the nation. Slow the game down and the cover is well within reach. 10* (338) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the OLD DOMINION MONARCHS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Appalachian St. has been a dominant team without a losing record since 2013 but there were concerns coming into this season with just 11 starters returning and it has showed. The Mountaineers played North Carolina very tough but have been unimpressive other than that. One of the three wins was against Gardner Webb of the FCS and the other two were against UL-Monroe and East Carolina, a combined 3-9. The rushing defense has been the big issue. The Mountaineers allowed 79 yards against East Carolina but the Pirates have one of the worst rushing offenses in the country and they have allowed an average of 223.8 ypg on the ground in their other four games against FBS opponents. Old Dominion is now 3-3 following a win at Southern Mississippi and the Monarchs are now 2-1 in the SBC and coming off a bye week. Two of their losses came against Marshall and Wake Forest by a combined nine points and while the other was by 19 points against Virginia Tech, they were -3 in turnovers. The one bad win was against Texas A&M-Commerce by only one point but five turnovers will do that in a game they clearly were not up for following that tough loss to Wake Forest. Old Dominion will utilize its running game led by Kadarius Calloway and his explosive 12.6 ypc against the weak rushing defense of the Mountaineers. 10* (354) Old Dominion Monarchs

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We were on UTSA a decent amount early in the season and they did us no favors and overall, the Roadrunners started 0-4 against the number and 1-3 straight up. Frank Harris at quarterback was the issue as he came in as preseason First Team All AAC but was fighting an injury and finally had to give in to sit. He has been back the last two games and the offense has done a complete turnaround as after scoring 77 points in their first four games, the Roadrunners have scored 90 points in the two games since his return. Most importantly, there have been only two turnovers compared to eight prior to that. They are back to 3-3 and more importantly, 2-0 in the conference which is part of a four-way tie with a chance to knock one of those teams out here. Rolling Temple and UAB has the momentum back. Florida Atlantic is also off to a 3-3 start following a pair of wins against Tula and South Florida with the offense coming off its best performance of the season. However, that came against a Bulls defense that is one of the worst in the country at No. 126 overall and No. 127 in scoring. The Owls had their two best rushing games of the season against FBS opponents but now face a UTSA defense that has gotten its rushing defense back in line, allowing 202 yards on 64 carries (3.2 ypc) over the last two games. This is a great chance to buy UTSA low as the markets have not caught up. 10* (347) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Pittsburgh picked up a possible season saving win over Louisville to avoid falling to 1-5 and while that can be a springboard, it was not a confident or dominating win as the Cardinals lost it more than Pittsburgh won it. It played out as expected as we played against Louisville which was a deceiving undefeated and coming off a huge win over Notre Dame. Pittsburgh was outgained 444-305 but benefited from three Cardinals turnovers that included an 86-yard interception return for a touchdown that turned what could have been a four-point deficit into a 10-point lead. The Panthers have been outgained in five straight games and have only won the yardage battle against Wofford of the FCS. Wake Forest opened the season 3-0 but has dropped three straight games including the last two on the road at Clemson and Virginia Tech. The Demon Deacons played well against the Tigers in the five-point loss and in the other tow losses, the second against Georgia Tech, turnovers were the difference as they were -6 in margin in those games. Pittsburgh had just four total takeaways before last week so Wake Forest should not have an issue here. The Demon Deacons have outgained all three opponents at home with Georgia Tech being the exception and they have build a solid home edge, going 22-5 over their last 27 home games and are in a good spot with a short price to snap their three-game skid. 10* (324) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. Oklahoma St. has been on a mini roll as it has won its last two games, both as underdogs, but both at home. Those big wins improved the Cowboys to 4-2 on the season. They had lost two straight games prior to that and the difference in all four of those games have been turnovers as the winner was 9-0 in positive margin. The offense has looked better over the second part of the six games but there is still a lot to be desired as they are No. 70 overall and No. 87 in scoring and on the other side, it is much of the same as Oklahoma St. is ranked No. 89 in total defense and No. 63 in scoring defense. Third down conversions have been a big issue as the Cowboys are -4.4 percent in conversion percentage. West Virginia is coming off a brutal loss against Houston last Thursday as it had the game in hand but the Cougars scored on a 49-yard Hail Mary with no time remaining to pull out the two-point win. That snapped a four-game winning streak and while that is tough to recover from, the Mountaineers have had some extra time to let it go and a return home will help. They are also 4-2 which has come against a much more difficult schedule with the numbers favoring their side. The offense is pretty similar to that of the Cowboys but the defense has played much better as they are No. 44 overall and No. 48 in scoring, allowing 22.7 ppg and in their three home games, that drops to 12.0 ppg. 10* (340) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Air Force has rolled to a 6-0 start but the schedule has been in its favor as it played only one true road game over those first six games. While that ended up being a 45-20 win at San Jose St., the Falcons trailed by three points at halftime with the Spartans imploding in the fourth quarter. Now they make their longest trek of the season against a team that certainly knows their style in a big rival game while laying a huge number on the road. Air Force leads the nation in rushing at 334.2 ypg but that triple option running attack has been slowed by this Navy team in recent years. The best win of the season came last week against Wyoming but it was by only seven points at home and now they are laying a similar number on the road. Navy improved to 3-3 following a pair of wins against North Texas and Charlotte, certainly not the best of competition but its has the positive momentum back. After going a combined +8 in turnover margin the last two seasons, which still pretty solid, the Midshipmen are +9 in margin so far this season which is tied for third best in the country. They are not on the same level as Air Force in rushing but are still ranked No. 5 while pushing toward 5.0 ypc. This is important in making this is possession game which slows it down to make it lower scoring as evidenced by this total of 37 and that favors the underdog. 10* (350) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Game of the Month. The playoff picture is nearly complete in the CFL with five of six spots claimed and this game has big implications in deciding that sixth spot. Calgary is in jeopardy of missing the postseason for the first time since 2004 but despite a 5-11 record, the Stampeders remain alive. They are coming off a win last week against Saskatchewan in a game they had to win which snapped a three-game losing streak and they are in another must win spot. Calgary still needs help if its wins as it needs the Roughriders to lose Saturday against Toronto which would make next week another must win for the Stampeders but first things first, they need to get it done here. The good news is that they are getting a huge number here so even an outright loss can cash our ticket. Of their 11 losses, seven have been by fewer points than what they are getting here. B.C. is playing for something as well as it needs to win and hope Winnipeg losses out to claim the top spot in the West Division and the latter seems unlikely at this point with the Blue Bombers hosting Edmonton on Saturday. The Lions are 5-1 in their last six games but only one of those wins was by more than eight points and the defense has struggled going further back. They have allowed 30.4 ppg over their last 11 games and while the Calgary offense has been spotty, they can find success here and keep it competitive. 10* (681) Calgary Stampeders

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Jacksonville has won three straight games following a 17-point win over the Colts despite getting outgained 354-233 as it won the turnover battle 4-1 following a successful stint in London. Against Atlanta, the Jaguars won the yardage battle by only 13 total yards but benefitted from a 3-0 turnover margin that included a 61-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Two weeks ago, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot as they were the ones travelling prior to the game and Buffalo was coming off a big home win over Miami that had a lot of build up to it. Now the Jaguars are playing their first true road game since the season opener, a stretch of over five weeks and are doing in on short rest with a banged up quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is considered day-to-day with a knee sprain facing one of the best defenses in the league. New Orleans lost in Houston 20-13 despite a 430-297 yardage edge as it missed two field goals and turned it over on downs at the Houston 15 in the fourth quarter. The Saints are now 3-3 and have been carried by the defense that is ranked No. 3 in the NFL in EPA and ranked in the top ten both against the run and pass. Overall. They have a net EPA of No. 11 while the Jaguars are at No. 18. It has been a tough stretch with the schedule as four of their last five games have been on the road which has made up for not having yet played a team ranked in the top 16 which ends this week but the spot is a great one. 10* (312) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Give James Madison a lot of credit for being as motivated as it as this is its second season playing in the FBS with nothing to play for. The Dukes are ineligible for the SBC Championship and are not eligible for the postseason for two years after transitioning from the FCS which is a rule that makes little sense. They are off to a 6-0 start including a big 41-13 win over Georgia Southern last week despite winning the yardage battle by just 16 yards as they had a +3 turnover edge. The other four FBS wins were by only one possession. James Madison has been excellent against the run as it leads the nation by allowing just 42.8 ypg on 1.5 ypc but the passing defense has been lit up as it allows 280.7 ypg through the air, tied for seventh worse in the country. Marshall opened the season 4-0 and then lost a tough game at NC State by a touchdown before losing to Georgia St. last week by 17 points despite outgaining the Panthers and going into the fourth quarter down only three points. This has turned into a big game as the Thundering Herd are coming off two straight road games with two more road games on deck. They are 3-0 at home this season with this being a big home field edge going back as they are 50-17 over their last 67 home games. While their rushing defense is not on the same level, they allow nearly 130 yards less through the air. 10* (314) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. New Mexico St. has won two straight games as it has found its rhythm on offense with 439 and 458 total yards in those two games with great balance. The Aggies have a big edge in the running game as they have rushed for at least 170 yards in every game while averaging 194.9 ypg on 5.9 ypc. They average 2.0 more ypc on the ground than UTEP, they outrush opponents by 1.9 ypc and allow 0.9 ypc less on defense than the Miners. The problem early for New Mexico St. early on was turnovers as in its first two losses against UMass and Liberty, the Aggies committed three turnovers in each game and were -5 overall but they have cleaned that up by committing only two turnovers in their last four games and UTEP has not been a takeaway machine as it has forced only five turnovers in seven games. UTEP upset Florida International last week with its third and fourth string quarterbacks as it passed for 302 yards on only 15 completions as the Panthers had no answer for wide receiver Kelly Akharaiyi who hauled in over half of those passes for 223 yards. Whether or not the Miners get one of their top two quarterbacks back in this one, there is not much rhythm with a lack of work together. UTEP averages just 3.9 ypc on offense and faces an Aggies defense that has allowed only 3.5 ypc on 267 yards combined over their last three games. 10* (309) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Middle Tennessee St. won for us last week as a short favorite which snapped a three-game losing streak. The common theme in those defeats were turnovers as they were on the wrong end in all of those and -6 in margin combined. The Blue Raiders are now 2-5 with the other win coming against Murray St. of the FCS and to their credit, the schedule has been tough besides that which includes a game against Colorado St. and three road games against Western Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri. They actually outgained the Rams and were outgained by the Tigers by only 31 yards and the Hilltoppers by 71 yards so they have been dominated just once which was against Alabama. Liberty remained undefeated with a win at Jacksonville St. last week and it is already bowl eligible at 6-0. Clearly this is one of the best teams in Conference USA where the Flames are already 4-0 but two of those wins against brand new FBS entrants Sam Houston St. and Jacksonville St. with the other coming against 0-4 Florida International. They have been the opposite of the Blue Raiders where they have won the turnover battle in five of their six games and their +8 overall turnover margin is tied for sixth best in the country and this has to taken into account along with Middle Tennessee St. tied for No. 114. The Flames have played the No. 144 ranked schedule in the country so that has definitely played into the results as well. 10* (301) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Cowboys are coming off a very humbling loss against the 49ers as they were never in the game in the 42-10 defeat. This typically would be a great bounce back situation but the spot is not in their favor and the line is not either. The defense was first across the board in EPA entering the game last week but fell a few spots after allowing 421 total yards including a season high 251 yards through the air and now faces an even more lethal offense. Injuries are piling up on that side of the ball and will be affected here. Their own offense did not crack 200 yards and Dallas has fallen to No. 19 in EPA offense and this has come against a schedule that is ranked No. 26. The Chargers got to .500 with a pair of wins over Minnesota and Las Vegas and they have been in a position where they could be 4-0 as one of the losses came against the Dolphins by just two points and the other coming against Tennessee in overtime. Los Angeles is averaging 27.5 ppg on 388.8 ypg and is ranked No. 7 in offensive EPA and it gets Austin Ekeler back this week after him missing the last three games. The defense has been hit or miss but it had to do with it has faced as the Chargers were lit up against dynamic offenses in Miami and Minnesota but were strong against Tennessee and Las Vegas with Dallas falling in the middle of those two groups. Los Angeles is coming off its bye which has allowed other pieces to get more healthy and this is a big one to get over .500 before travelling to Kansas city next week. 10* (278) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Detroit came into the season with high expectations with relatively low Super Bowl odds and so far, so good as the Lions are 4-1 with the only loss coming in overtime against Seattle. They are a public darling with the line dictating that and this is where we can say they are overvalued despite playing a team many think is a fraud. Detroit is top ten in both offensive and defense EPA with an overall net EPA of No. 7 against a No. 20 ranked schedule. The offense did not miss receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown last week against the Panthers, and he will likely remain questionable the rest of the week but will not be 100 percent going up against a strong defense. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week following a 3-1 start with the lone loss coming against undefeated Philadelphia. The Buccaneers have played a top half schedule overall and while facing the No. 7 ranked EPA team, they are ranked No. 8 in overall EPA. The defense is one of the top teams in the league at No. 7 in EPA being solid both against the run and pass but the wild card is on the other side. The running game has left a lot to be desired but Baker Mayfield is quietly going about his business with a 101.5 passer rating behind the No. 7 ranked offense in passing EPA and as long as his receiving corps remains healthy, it is one of the best in the NFL. Upset alert. 10* (268) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is the time of year we start buying low on teams and the Patriots could not be any lower right now. They are coming off consecutive blowout losses by a combined 72-3 and Bill Belichick suffered his worst loss as a coach two weeks ago and backed it up with his worst home loss of his coaching career. The bad news is New England has fallen into the bottom spot in EPA offense but the Patriots have faced the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked defenses in EPA the last two games and now they go up against the No. 22 ranked team in defensive EPA. Despite some personnel losses on defense, New England is still a top ten team defensively and all of this have come by playing the No. 2 ranked schedule in the league. Las Vegas is coming off a Monday night win over Green Bay and it was closing in on another loss based on a coaching decision to kick a field goal instead of going for a fourth and one that would have sealed the game. The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory and come in favored again with the line now hitting a key number after opening at 1.5. Offensively, the Raiders have the same ranking in offensive EPA at No. 22 and they still have yet to crack the 100-yard mark in rushing. Underdogs coming off a loss by 20 or more points and playing a favorite coming off a primetime game have covered at a 62 percent clip since 1990. 10* (269) New England Patriots

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. A regression from Minnesota was expected but probably not to this extent. The Vikings fell to 1-4 following a loss to Kansas City with all four losses coming by one possession after going 11-0 last season in one possession games. The first came against Tampa Bay where they dominated the yardage and the other three came against all likely playoff teams but the one common theme in all of them have been turnovers with Minnesota now -9 in turnover margin. After being at the top of the Luck Ratings last season, the Vikings are now No. 31 and this is the get right spot despite the loss of Justin Jefferson. Chicago is coming off its first win in about a calendar year as it defeated Washington by 20 points, snapping a 14-game losing streak going back to October 24 of last season. The Bears moved ahead of the Broncos by one spot into No. 31 in defensive EPA despite allowing 378 yards to the Commanders last Thursday. This is a bad roster with a lot of issues and while quarterback Justin Fields is being lauded for his four touchdown passes, he barely completed 50 percent of his passes against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Here, we play against teams off a double digit win as a road underdog of six points or more. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (255) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is another buy low spot with the Bengals returning home following their best game of the season in a 34-20 win in Arizona to halt their 1-3 start. We cannot forget Cincinnati started 0-2 last season and went on a run to the AFC Championship and it revolves around Joe Burrow. He clearly came into the season not close to 100 percent and is coming off his best game so far and while it can be argued that it was against the lowly Cardinals, the eye test showed that he looked different from the previous four games physically. This is a great spot to keep the momentum going with a bye week on deck and the public still weary based on this line. Seattle is coming off its bye week following three straight wins but it comes with an asterisk. The last two victories came against the Panthers and Giants, arguably the two worst teams in the league with the first coming against the Lions on the road in overtime thanks to Detroit not seeing the ball after regulation. Overall, the Seahawks have played the No. 29 ranked schedule so a 3-1 record is not surprising yet they still have a bottom half of the league defense and are ranked No. 21 in defensive passing EPA which could mean another big game from Burrow. Despite a week off, the secondary remains banged up and on the other side, their offensive line is still a problem with injuries. 10* (258) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Star Attraction. This line opened at -3 prior to the San Francisco beatdown of Dallas and quickly shot to -4.5 and then -5 and it continues to climb reaching close to a touchdown in most spots which is due to the Desean Watson uncertainty. No one is going to stand in front of this 49ers team from a betting standpoint as evidenced by the 94 percent of the money coming in with the majority of the public not even betting yet and that is where they will be. San Francsico has moved to the Super Bowl favorite and for good reason as it has scored 30 or points in all five games and eight straight games during the regular season going back to last season. Coming off that statement Cowboys win, this is the fade spot. Cleveland is 2-2 and coming off its bye week following a loss to Baltimore with Watson being a late scratch. The other loss came against Pittsburgh where it pretty much dominated but gave up two defensive scores and it brings in a tough matchup for the 49ers. Taking nothing away from the San Francisco start but it has played the second easiest schedule and faces the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA going up against its weakness which is the offensive line that is ranked No. 24 in the NFL. Brock Purdy has been unflappable but his pass protection will break down here and after three straight home games, the going will not be the same in this road environment. 10* (260) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Boise St. comes in at 3-3 and other than a blowout loss at Washington and a blowout win at home against North Dakota of the FCS, all the other games have been one possession finals so laying over a touchdown is a bit aggressive here. The Broncos other two road games ended up being a split as they defeated San Diego St. by three points but were outgained and were fortunate to have a 2-0 turnover advantage while the other road game was a three-point loss at Memphis. They are coming off an eight-point win over San Jose St. and has their best rushing game of the season but will have their hands full as they hit the road again where they are not nearly as strong. Colorado St. got its doors blown off last week against Utah St. as it opened up a 17-0 lead but allowed the next 37 points being guilty of five turnovers that completely stifled the offense. That dropped the Rams to 2-3 with the other two losses coming against Pac 12 teams in Washington St. and Colorado. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi had his worst game of the season last week but is in a good bounce back spot as he was putting up prolific numbers prior to that. They need to establish the run which has been ineffective but Boise St. is allowing 4.2 ypg and has been gashed in three of its six games. Colorado St. has not forgotten the 49-10 shellacking the Broncos put on them last season. 10* (184) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS for our ACC Game of the Year. We are not sure Miami can recover from its last minute debacle against Georgia Tech last week as it should be sitting at 5-0 coming into its tough portion of the schedule. That was on the coaching and the Hurricanes are at a big disadvantage in this one in that category while having to hit the road for just the second time this season. Miami did own a nice win over Texas A&M in its second game of the season but it was a lot tighter than the 15-point deficit shows as Miami benefitted from three Aggies turnovers. Back-to-back wins over Bethune Cookman and Temple by a combined 89-14 mean nothing and they come in having played the No. 107 ranked schedule in the nation. North Carolina meanwhile has played a schedule ranked No. 27 and that has not deterred it from a 5-0 start. The Tar Heels were fortunate to beat Pittsburgh on the road even though they won by 17 points as it should have been a lot closer as they only outgained the Panthers by 66 yards but were +3 in turnovers. They are coming off their best offensive performance of the season with 644 yards coupled with their best defensive performance as well as they held the Orange to just 222 yards of offense. This is the second of three straight home games with cupcake Virginia on deck and this line is in their favor in what is a sensational spot. 10* (154) North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our CFB Star Attraction. Notre Dame is catching a lot of flack as it opened the season 4-0 but has not looked like the same team since then and that is actually good news here as we can buy low this week. The Irish lost to Ohio St. in a controversial defeat that they easily could have won but went down on the final play. They did not look good against Duke but that was on the road against a very strong Blue Devils team while trying to recover from the prior game. They followed that up with a 13-point loss at Louisville last week but turned the ball over five times including three uncharacteristic interceptions by Sam Hartman, his first three of the season. No worry about Notre Dame not getting up for this one. USC survived Arizona as it rallied from a 17-0 deficit and had a chance to win in regulation but has a field goal blocked yet eventually won in triple overtime on a made two-point conversion. USC was outgained 505-351 and had its third scare in as many weeks with Arizona St. and Colorado hanging until late in the game. Both of those were on the road and the Trojans hit the highway again heading to the Midwest in a tough environment behind a prolific offense led by quarterback Caleb Williams but with a defense that is ranked No. 112 overall including No. 116 in passing and No. 90 in rushing and they will get torched again while facing a top 12 defense. 10* (216) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Month. LSU came into the season as National Championship contenders but that ended as soon as the season started with a blowout loss against Florida St. That defeat is not looking as bad now with the Seminoles flourishing but the Tigers have not looked even close to being the preseason contender they came in as. They rolled over Grambling of the FCS and then followed that up with a beatdown of Mississippi St. which is lucky to even be 3-3. LSU was fortunate to beat both Arkansas and Missouri as it has a 4-1 turnover advantage which was sandwiched around a loss to Mississippi where they allowed over 700 yards of offense to the Rebels. The once proud defense has tailed off as it is ranked No. 124 in the country and now they are being asked to lay double-digits. Auburn has done nothing special as it opened 3-0 before losing at Texas A&M and giving Georgia all it could handle prior to its bye last week which came at a good time. The Tigers combined for only 144 yards passing in those two losses but those were against two top 25 passing defenses. Enter LSU and its horrific secondary 1,073 passing yards in its last three games while allowing 15 passing touchdowns total, tied for third most in the country. Auburn has not allowed more than 27 points this season and it is No. 25 in total defense. 10* (199) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Louisville is off to a 6-0 start but it is not a very pretty undefeated record. The Cardinals opened the season by narrowly defeating Georgia Tech despite getting outgained and had two other close calls against Indiana and NC State. One of their wins came against Murray St. of the FCS where they outgained the Racers 690-166 and doubled up Boston College 56-28 but they caught the Eagles at a perfect time right off the near miss against Florida St. Last week, it looked like an impressive win over Notre Dame but Louisville was actually outgained and benefitted from five Irish turnovers. Now they come in as an inflated favorite in just their second true road game of the season. Pittsburgh does not have a good resume as it has lost four straight games following an opening game win over Wofford of the FCS. The Panthers played Cincinnati tough and nearly pulled off the comeback win and in losses to West Virginia and North Carolina, they were outgained by 11 and 66 yards respectively but were -5 in turnovers. The last defeat against Virginia Tech was a bad one considering they were slight road favorites but they have had a week off to let it go and get ready here which puts them in a good spot. Too much credit for Louisville based on the records and also noting that Pittsburgh has played the No. 29 ranked schedule in the country. 10* (146) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. Montreal would have been the more motivated team here had Hamilton won last night but with the Ti-Cats loss, the Alouettes clinched the No. 2 spot in East Division and have earned a first round home game. With nothing to play for, it will not be surprising to see Montreal rest starters after a few series in this game to remain healthy. The Alouettes have dominated the bottom of the league teams this season but this is the first time where winning does not matter and making matters even more tough is the fact they are playing on just four days of rest following their Monday win against Ottawa and have to travel west. Edmonton opened the season 0-9 before it finally got into the win column and has gone 4-3 over its last seven games which is a solid turnaround for a team that has found victories few and far between over the last couple years. A major factor in this turnaround is a better offense that averaged 14.9 ppg during the opening losing streak but has averaged 26.7 ppg over the last seven games. The insertion of quarterback Tre Ford has been the difference and while he has not put up a tom of passing yards, the duel ability he brings has kept defenses off balance. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (676) Edmonton Elks

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. We played against Buffalo last week and that certainly did not pan out as the Bulls destroyed Central Michigan 37-13 but while the scoreboard counts, it does not tell the story. Buffalo was actually outgained but won the turnover battle 4-0 that included a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns. That win is inflating this number and it should not as this is not a good team. The only other win came against lowly Akron and prior to last week, they lost both of their games played at home, one in which was a 28-point loss to Liberty and the other against Fordham of the FCS. Buffalo lost by just seven at Louisiana but it was dominated in yardage 518-373 but kept it close because of three turnovers. Bowling Green has opened 2-4 but has played a schedule ranked twice as hard as that of the Bulls. The Falcons have road losses as Liberty and Michigan which are a combined 11-0 and one last week at Miami Ohio which is 5-1. They do own a quality win over Georgia Tech and while it was aided by a +2 turnover margin, it was an 11-point win and the yardage was close to identical. This is the start of four straight winnable games before the Falcons face Toledo and the results of last week alone have affected this line enough to give them excellent value with a legitimate shot to win it outright. 10* (165) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Oklahoma St. came through for us last Friday in its home win over Kansas St. and now it is ripe for a letdown. The Cowboys were outgained by the Wildcats but had a 3-0 turnover advantage and are now getting a touchdown less this week against a team ranked on the same level as Kansas St. That was a spot play against the Wildcats more than it was on the Cowboys with the exception of them playing for payback from a 48-0 loss last season. The Cowboys put up a good effort against Iowa St. as they were outgained by only 13 total yards but as was the case in their other loss against South Alabama, turnovers hurt them as they were on the wrong end in both games 2-0. Kansas suffered a blowout loss at Texas for its only defeat this season and it bounced back following a bye with a 29-point win over UCF last week. That was the second straight game that quarterback Jalon Daniels missed because of back tightness and the Jayhawks hope to get him back this week as he can be a game changer but Jason Bean has been a solid backup in his absence. Kansas relies heavily on its running game with Daniels not having been much of a contributor anyway and the Jayhawks are No. 6 in the country in rushing. Kansas does have Oklahoma on deck but it is not for two weeks as they have their only bye coming up. 10* (209) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Ohio St. is rolling along as it is 5-0 but something just does not look right with the offense. Quarterback Kyle McCord ranks No. 21 in the country with a 164.01 rating and he has had trouble making decisions and is poor at scrambling for extra yards and avoiding sacks. A lot of this is partly due to an offensive line that has not been very good in helping him and has not been able to help generate a running game. It hung 63 on Western Kentucky but has been average other than that. The Buckeyes are sound defensively and that will help them here but they have a lookahead to Penn St. next week so they want to get out of here healthy while not showing too much. Purdue is 2-4 but could be much better. The Boilermakers lost a tough one to Fresno St. in its opening game and while its next two losses against Syracuse and Wisconsin were by 36 points combined, the yardage numbers were close to even in both games but they killed themselves with seven turnovers. It has been much better since then with a resounding win over Illinois and then hanging with Iowa last week as they outgained the Hawkeyes in the six-point loss. They were getting 2.5 on the road there and are now getting close to three touchdowns at home and while Iowa and Ohio St. are not on the same level, it is a massive line swing. 10* (170) Purdue Boilermakers

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Friday Primetime Dominator. Fresno St. jumped into the AP Poll last week after a 5-0 start and then came the talk about being in the mix for the group of five bowl team but that ended last week in a loss at Wyoming. The talk of that and even entering the top 25 was a bit aggressive considering the Bulldogs have not exactly played anyone and the wins are iffy at best. They snuck by a poor Purdue team late, defeated Eastern Washington of the FCS by only three points with the yards being nearly dead even, beat Arizona St. thanks to a 8-0 turnover advantage and the last two wins came against Kent St. and Nevada which are a combined 1-10. All of this has equated to a schedule ranked No. 114 in the country and Fresno St. still comes in a heavy road favorite here. Utah St. improved to 3-3 with a win over Colorado St. last week which was its best performance of the season. The Aggies generated 639 yards of offense as the unit has improved in most every game against FBS opposition. They opened the season with a loss at Iowa but actually outgained the Hawkeyes, played Air Force tough but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and lost to undefeated James Madison by only a touchdown while getting outgained by only 12 yards. Utah St. is not far behind in OVR despite playing a more difficult schedule and while the defense has not been as strong, the Aggies have generated 11 turnovers their last three games while their eight interceptions are tied for sixth most in the nation. 10* (180) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Playoff implications are on the line for both sides and we are getting a great home number here. B.C. had its four-game winning streak snapped with a loss to Winnipeg last week which put it one game behind the Blue Bombers. The Lions can still win the division but has to win out here and against Calgary next week while Winnipeg has to lose its final two games against Edmonton and Calgary which seems unlikely. The offense remains solid but the defense has been an issue and this is not a good matchup for that. The Lions have allowed 30.4 ppg over their last 10 games and catch a healthy Hamiton offense. The Ti-cats started their turnaround with their Week 12 win over the Lions and have now won five of their last seven games with the only two losses coming against 13-2 Toronto. They can host a playoff game should they win here and then in the season finale in Week 21 against Montreal. The T-Cats beat Saskatchewan last week as they welcomed back quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell who played sparingly but is being eased back and along with Matthew Shiltz, who is also back after stint on the IL, the position is as best as it has been in a long time. Here, we play against teams with an offense averaging 7.5 or more yppl, after gaining 8.0 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (672) Hamilton Ti-Cats

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Denver is coming off another tough loss as it was within a field goal against the Jets before a fumble return for a touchdown put the game out of reach. That was the third loss that was within a field goal with under a minute remaining as the game against Miami has been the only bad game this season. The Broncos record could be better but sitting at 1-4, the public does not want anything to do with team especially considering they are just one of three teams that has yet to cover a game this season. Denver is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Rankings that identify which teams results have been, in their case, unluckier, than their on-field performance indicates. Another factor playing into why Denver will not be a big play is the fact it has lost 15 straight meetings with Kansas City. The Chiefs escaped with a win in Minnesota to improve to 4-1 following an opening game loss against Detroit. While winning is clearly the objective, Kansas City has not been doing it in dominating fashion as only the win over Chicago was a runaway with the offense seemingly continuing to be a work in progress. Patrick Mahomes does not look confident with his receiving corps that has been inconsistent especially two of the top guys in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore who have just 16 catches and 239 yards through five games. The injury to Travis Kelce cannot be downplayed even though he returned against Minnesota as playing on a short week is not ideal with any sort of lower leg injury. Kansas City has been favored by more than a touchdown in seven of the last nine meetings with Denver covering five of those including both last season and these divisional games find a way to be closer than expected the majority of the time. 10* (111) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. SMU is 3-2 to start the season with the two losses coming against Big 12 opponents Oklahoma and TCU on the road so no hard, no foul there. Despite those games, the Mustangs have played a schedule ranked No. 103 in the country which shows how bad the rest of the schedule has been as they have defeated a below average Louisiana Tech, Prairie View of the FCS and a very bad Charlotte team while outgaining the 49ers by only 32 total yards. The Mustangs have inflated OVR and DVR numbers based on the schedule and while they have done a good job of not turning the ball over, the defense has only two takeaways. SMU certainly has not done enough to be favored by double digits on the road. It has been a rough start for East Carolina as it is 1-4 without an FBS win but there have been positives. The Pirates are coming off a loss at Rice last game by a touchdown as they outgained the Owls by 114 yards but a redzone turnover led to a Rice touchdown and the offense also failed to score on a drive that ended at the one yard line. There has been progress on offense in both areas after averaging just 252 ypg in its first two games against Michigan and Marshall which just lost its first game this past weekend. The Pirates have played very well defensively as they are ranked No. 59 in overall DVR including No. 8 in rushing DVR which is more impressive considering having played games against Michigan and Appalachian St. 10* (118) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL PANTHERS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. A season that opened with high expectations is spiraling down for UTEP which has lost four straight games to fall to 1-5 on the season with the only win coming against Incarnate Word of the FCS and that was by only two touchdowns. Injuries have played a big part in this as the Miners have been missing playmakers on offense and last week they were without starting quarterback Gavin Hardison. He should be back but his tendonitis is a big concern as he has not been very good when he has played, completing only 56.6 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. The starting offense has scored six touchdowns in its last four games with four of those coming against UNLV. UTEP turns it over way too much and does not generate turnovers, producing a -8 margin. Florida International opened the season 3-1 before losing against still undefeated Liberty and then against New Mexico St. last week by 17 points despite being outgained by only 42 yards. The Panthers have been hurt by their own turnovers but unlike the Miners, the defense generate takeaways and they are only -1 in margin. The passing offense struggled against Louisiana Tech in the opener and against Liberty but has averaged 294.3 ypg in their other four games and has a good matchup against a UTEP passing defense allowing 60 percent completions and 7.7 ypa, No. 77 in the country. 10* (108) Florida International Panthers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. We played on Middle Tennessee St. last week and it lost to Jacksonville St. despite outgaining the Gamecocks 563-426 to make it three straight losses. The common theme in those defeats has been turnovers as they have been on the wrong end in all of those and -6 in margin combined. The Blue Raiders are 1-5 with the one win coming against Murray St. of the FCS and to their credit, the schedule has been tough besides that which includes a game against Colorado St. and three road games against Western Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri. They actually outgained the Rams and were outgained by the Tigers by only 31 yards and the Hilltoppers by 71 yards so they have been dominated just once which was against Alabama. Louisiana Tech is off to a 3-4 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St., that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the six FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by only five points. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a big 24-10 win over UTEP but they were outgained by the Miners and benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown and then lost last week against Western Kentucky which was the fourth straight game they have been outgained. 10* (104) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Green Bay is coming off a blowout loss at home against Detroit last Thursday to fall to 2-2 on the season and while it heads west, it is working with extra time and that is important for another reason. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson both came back last week but were limited on snap counts and they will both be fully ready to go this week. The Packers basically had to abandon the running game against Detroit as it played from behind so both Jones and A.J. Dillon will be fresh and square off against a poor defense. Quarterback Jordan Love has regressed from his first two games but those were against excellent defenses in the Saints and Lions and the Raiders come in with a defensive passing EPA of No. 28 and an overall defensive EPA of No. 28 as well. Las Vegas lost to the Chargers for its third straight defeat following a fortunate opening game victory over Denver. This would normally be good take based on the streak and playing at home but the Raiders have an unfavorable opposite situation as well as a roster that is not on the same level and pretty banged up. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo missed last week with a concussion but has gone through protocol and will return but it is not a huge upgrade as he has struggled. He has an 81.4 passer rating with a 5:6 TD:INT ratio. The rushing game has been non-existent as the Raiders are ranked in rushing EPA at No. 30 and the Packers defense is good enough to keep that down. 10* (475) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. It has not been the start the Jets anticipated as they have lost three straight games following an opening win over Buffalo following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. No one wants a part of backing this team but they have played well the last two games and finally catch a break in the schedule as New York has played the No. 1 ranked schedule. Zach Wilson has taken a lot of heat but he has faced some potent defenses, three of which are ranked in the top five in passing EPA as well as facing the Patriots before they got banged up. Now he goes up against the No. 32 ranked defense in passing EPA and while he has felt the pressure, he will not here as Denver has an 18.5 percent pressure rate which is seventh lowest in the league. The Jets will be able to run as well against the No. 29 ranked rushing EPA defense. Denver is another team no one wants to back and it will be getting more love than it should this week. The Broncos escaped last week as they rallied against the Bears defense for their first win but now they square off against a much stronger defense. The offensive numbers have been surprisingly good but that comes with who they have faced as they have gone against defenses ranked No. 26, 27, 28 and 31 in defensive EPA. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a two-game road trip, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (469) New York Jets

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Rams come in as a significant home underdog for a quality team and while a 2-2 record might not say that, but they are underrated. Five teams are in action this week that are ranked in the top ten in offensive rushing EPA, offensive passing EPA and overall offensive EPA, which are the Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, 49ers and the fifth being the Rams as they are No. 4, No. 7 and No. 6 respectively in those categories. This has come against the No. 4 ranked schedule in the league and Matthew Stafford could be in for a day. He faces an Eagles defense that is No. 18 in passing EPA and this have come against three below average quarterbacks and Kirk Cousins as the Philadelphia secondary has underperformed and is banged up. Philadelphia is 4-0 on the season but are not dominant and the numbers prove that. The Eagles are No. 5 in offensive EPA but No. 14 in passing as they have relied on their rushing game. Defensively, they are No. 16 overall with a net EPA ranked No. 10 which is just two spots ahead of the Rams. Philadelphia has played the No. 26 ranked schedule and factoring into it all is it remains No. 1 in the NFL Luck Rankings. The Eagles are coming off a hard fought division game and now head west in a tough situation. Here, we play against favorites outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (468) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Atlanta is coming off a pair of poor performances against Detroit and Jacksonville as it managed only 13 points total but it was totally taken out of its gameplan in both games. The Falcons were forced to abandon the run as combined they threw the ball 25 more times than they ran it. Part of that was due to playing catch up and facing two defenses with strong rushing defenses. That changes this week. The Texans are ranked No. 30 in defensive rushing EPA and what makes this even worse is that their last three games have come against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Indianapolis which are ranked No. 25, 32 and 26 respectively in offensive rushing EPA. This could be the breakout game for Bijan Robinson who has been really good already with 318 yards on 6.0 ypc. The Texans have won two straight games and are starting to get that public backing including here as this line has dropped under a key number. The big story in Houston has been the play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who has already set some rookie records including most pass attempts without throwing an interception and his quarterback rating of 100.6 is impressive for a rookie. While not known for a strong defense, Atlanta has fared well against the pass at it is No. 11 in passing EPA. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (454) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Tennessee won going away for us last week as it was able to shut down a Cincinnati offense that clearly is not right and the situation was hugely in its favor, coming off a 27-3 loss at Cleveland. Derrick Henry went off last week with 122 yards rushing on 5.5 ypc but that was against a Bengals defense that is ranked No. 25 in defensive rushing EPA. The Colts come in No. 13 in that category so they should be able to slow him down enough and make Ryan Tannehill beat them after he was not asked to do so last week. Overall, this is a very underrated Colts defense. Indianapolis almost rallied from a 23-0 deficit as it forced overtime only to lose. The road team is a surprising 4-0 in its games but that changes here. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson returned last week and he has definitely shown flashes. He was on pace for a big game against Houston before getting hurt and he then missed the next game and while he struggled early last week, he rallied in the second half. This is a bad matchup for the Tennessee defense as it is one of the best inside but is struggles to contain and this is where Richardson can use his athleticism to get to the outside to create plays for himself and also find spots downfield against a poor Titans secondary. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. This game is more evenly matched than what the line is saying as from a statistical standpoint, there is not much. Rushing offense is nearly identical, rushing defense is a difference of just 30 ypg for Oregon St., passing offense is close to identical and passing defense favors the Beavers by only 45 yards. They both convert the same on third down at 41.3 percent and they both allow the same on third down at 31.2 percent. California has played tougher schedule by 10 spots and with all of this Oregon St. comes in as nearly a double-digit favorite and this is due to its impressive win over Utah last week but it was at home however and this presents a big letdown spot for the Beavers with UCLA on deck on top of it. The Golden Bears results are playing into the number as well with their narrow 24-21 win last week against Arizona St. and their 27-point loss to Washington the previous week but the Huskies are proving to be one of the top teams in the country. California is 3-2 which is just one win shy of its wins from all of last season and with 17 starters back, a big improvement was expected. Its other loss came against Auburn by only four points as it outgained the Tigers by 43 yards and had a chance for the win but was intercepts in the redzone. It is time for a marquee win and this could be it and needs to be it with Utah, USC and Oregon on deck but a close game is all we need. 10* (382) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Star Attraction. Baylor should be 1-4 right now but is coming off an improbable win last week to grab its first victory of the season. The Bears were upset at home against Texas St. to open the season as a 26.5-point favorite, blew a late lead against Utah and then were crushed against Texas with a win over Long Island of the FCS sandwiched in there to open 1-3, all three losses at home. They fell behind 35-7 against UCF last week but scored the final 29 points to pull out the one-point win that was aided by a 72-yard fumble return for a touchdown in what was a possible 14-point swing. Not much was expected this season with just 12 starters back and this is a big letdown spot for Baylor following that victory last week. Texas Tech is also 2-3 but unlike Baylor, its record could be better. Two losses against West Virginia and Wyoming were by a combined nine points and the Red Raiders won the yardage battle in both of those games but were just on the wrong end of the scoreboard and the other loss came against Oregon, arguably one of the best teams in the country, by only eight points as they blew a one-point lead with 1:10 left but allowed a field goal and were driving for their own field goal before a 45-yard pick six sealed the game. They are the better team here based on power rankings and they could not catch Baylor in a worse spot while gaining revenge from a 45-17 shellacking at home last season. 10* (383) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Iowa two weeks ago as it was crushed by Penn St. in an awful call as it managed only 76 yards of offense. The Hawkeyes bounced back last week against Michigan St. but failed to cover and did not look great on offense once again. Part of the problem was quarterback Cade McNamara left the game early and Deacon Hill was forced into action with no preparation and it showed. McNamara is very good so there is not a big downgrade with him being out as Hill brings in a big athletic presence and a week to work with his starting offense to square off against a defense that is bad in both aspects and one of the worst third down defenses in the country. Purdue is off to a 2-3 start and it has looked good only once which came against Virginia Tech and while it was on the road and it outgained the Hokies by 141 total yards and were +2 in turnovers, the Boilermakers only won by a touchdown. They have been crushed in the stats in two games against Fresno St. and Syracuse and while they outgained Wisconsin, it was only by eight yards as turnovers did them in and last week against Illinois, it was a misleading final score as they won by 25 points but outgained the Illini by only 31 total yards. As bad as Iowa has been on offense, it makes up for on defense and Purdue will have its hands full while catching a very small number. 10* (368) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN' CAJUNS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Texas St. is one of the bigger surprises in the FBS this season as it is 4-1 and while an opening game upset looked great at the time, it is not looking as impressive now. The Bobcats are coming off a 14-point win over Southern Mississippi last week but it was a skewed final as they outgained the Wolf Pack by just six total yards as they opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. Prior to that, it was a victory over Jackson St. of the FCS and a bad Nevada team that is 0-5 by only 11 points. While the offense has been potent, the defense has not been very good as they are allowing over 400 yards of offense and the Bobcats are allowing opponents to convert on 50 percent of third down conversions, tied for sixth worst in the nation. Louisiana is coming off a loss at Minnesota last week which came as no surprise as a double-digit underdog. The Cajuns are now 3-2 with the other loss coming at Old Dominion on the road and they have blown out their opponents in the three victories. To contend in the SBC West, this is a near must win as they face Troy and South Alabama on the road. Louisiana has the three rushing ypc edges on its side as it is outrushing its opponents by a significant amount, is averaging more ypc on offense than Texas St. and allows fewer ypc on defense than the Bobcats and while that is usually a solid situation for underdogs, that is close to what this line is. 10* (404) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our MAC Game of the Year. Central Michigan is 3-2 as it opened MAC play with a win over Eastern Michigan last week and it is now the likely team to contend with Toledo in the MAC East with Northern Illinois losing last week to the Rockets. This is where the Chippewas have to take care of business as the back end of the schedule is brutal as each of their final four games are against teams that are coming off a bye so they will be in for a handful. They are catching a short number here based on the fact all three of their wins have come by four points or less but this is an ideal matchup with strength against weakness. Central Michigan prefers running the ball and faces one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire country here. The Bulls put an end to their four-game losing streak to open the season with a win last week but it was against lowly Akron by only three points and while it was on the road, there is no significant home field edge for the Bulls. They lost both of their games played at home, one in which was a 28-point loss to Liberty and the other against Fordham of the FCS which is one of the lower ranked teams in that division. Buffalo did lost to Louisiana on the road by only seven points but it was dominated as the Cajuns hurt themselves with three turnovers. The Bulls did a good job against the Akron running game but the Zips are one of the worst rushing teams in the country. 10* (349) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. This is a great spot and a great number for Army as it comes in at 2-2. The Black Knights are coming off a bye week following a pair of road games where they split against UTSA and Syracuse and this marks their first home game in a month and just their second on the season. The first one was not a real test as it came against Delaware St. of the FCS but they did what they had to do in a 57-0 win. The other loss came against ULM by four points as they committed five turnovers and that is usually impossible to recover from. Boston College has been involved in four games decided by three points or less, going 2-2 and all of those games were at home. The Eagles lost their opener to Northern Illinois and then snuck out a win over Holy Cross the following week. The surprise came as they lost to Florida St. by only two points but the Seminoles were in a travel spot no ACC team prefers and they has Clemson on deck so that was a situational result more than a talent one. The Eagles snuck past a very bad Virginia team last week despite committing four turnovers so they were fortunate with that giveaway number. This is just their second road game of the season, the first resulting in a 28-point loss at Louisville and while we are not putting Army in the same category as the Cardinals, the linemakers are not either with this number being 11 points less. 10* (332) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Rutgers opened the season with three home wins over teams that will likely not see a bowl game and all currently sit at 2-3. While they were not tested, the Scarlet Knights rolled in all three of those games so they took care of business before going to Michigan in a tough spot with head coach Jim Harbaugh coming back for his first game. They did not play poorly as they hung in for most of the game but wore down as Michigan controlled the clock for over 12 minutes more. Rutgers go some positive momentum back last week with a blowout against Wagner of the FCS before heading to another tough environment but they are catching an inflated number against an overvalued team. Wisconsin does have the advantage of coming off a bye week following a blowout win against Purdue to open Big Ten action. That was the Badgers send straight win by 21 points, the first coming against Georgia Southern, but they hardly dominated either of those games. They were outgained by the Eagles by four yards and outgained by the Boilermakers by five yards but had a +8 turnover margin combined which made the difference. Those skewed final scores play into future numbers and that is the case here with Wisconsin having the yardage advantage in only one of four games which came in the opener against Buffalo. They have a slight rushing edge on offense but they allow more ypc than Rutgers with the Scarlet Knights also having the better rushing margin. 10* (365) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Primetime Dominator. Oklahoma St. is coming off a pair of losses following a 2-0 start that was pretty unimpressive anyway. The Cowboys put up a good effort against Iowa St. in their last game as they were outgained by only 13 total yards but as was the case in their other loss against South Alabama, turnovers hurt them as they were on the wrong end in both games 2-0. Quarterback Alan Bowman is coming off his best game even though he tossed a pair of picks and he has a decent matchup here against a defense allowing 237.8 ypg on a 62 percent completion rate. The running game has been adequate and they are putting up an average of 4.2 ypc and while the Wildcats are allowing only 73.2 ypg, teams have not ran the ball as the 29 attempts per game are tenth fewest in the country. Kansas St. bounced back from a tough loss against Missouri to roll past UCF but are now laying a much bigger number on the road than it was at home which is about an 11-point swing. The Wildcats offense has been producing at a high level but with a big chunk coming against SE Missouri St. of the FCS. Oklahoma St. has been playing well on defense despite the last two games points allowed as it allows just 3.9 ypc on the ground and 222 ypg on 7.4 ypa through the air. This is a big payback spot with the Cowboys losing in Manhattan last season 48-0 so it will be an amped environment in a primetime Friday game. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 or more yppl and after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against a team allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 39-10 ATS (79.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (316) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Chicago is coming off a tough loss against Denver as it blew a 28-7 lead late in the third quarter by allowing the final 24 points with the stinger coming on a 35-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Bears also lost the cover as well as it resulted in a push and they have gone seven straight going back to last season without a cover and have lost 14 straight games. in three of the four losses, they have been in the game as they were barely outgained by Green Bay, were within three points against Tampa Bay before a pick six and then the defeat last week where they outgained the Broncos by 160 yards. Turnovers have obviously been the difference as they have eight turnovers with Justin Fields accounting for seven of those. He is coming off his best game however and can carry that into this game against a poor Washington defense allowing 7.0 ypc, No. 24 in the league. The Commanders are also coming off a tough loss as they held a 17-7 lead and it was a tight game where they never trailed by more than a touchdown. That is a rough division loss to recover from yet the money has come in early to move this line up two points from opening but that is more of the action against the Bears as no one wants to back them. This offense is right in line with Chicago and while facing a bad defense, the Bears weakness is against the pass but Sam Howell is a quarterback hard to trust with his 81.3 rating and having more interceptions than touchdowns. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points getting outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 157-94 ATS (62.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTCUKY HILLTOPPERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is off to a 3-3 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St., that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the five FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by only five points. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a big 24-10 win over UTEP but they were outgained by the Miners and benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown and that was the third straight game they have been outgained. Jack Turner has taken over at quarterback for the injured Hank Bachmeier who is questionable again and Turner has not been very good. The rushing attack averages 152 ypg on 4.7 ypc but that is severely skewed after gashing Northwestern St. for 367 on 38 carries (9.7 ypc) so the averages are 137 ypg on 38 carries per game (3.6 ypc) in their five FBS games. Western Kentucky also snapped a two-game slide with a win over Middle Tennessee St. and overall the Hilltoppers have played a schedule ranked 40 spots higher than that of Louisiana Tech which has played the sixth easiest schedule of all FBS teams in action this week. The offense has been fine with the exception of the Ohio St. game and while quarterback Austin Reed has not as potent as last season, he has been really good completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 1,361 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Rushing offense has not done much with 96.8 ypg but faces a Bulldogs defense that is allowing 226.2 ypg on 5.2 ypc. 10* (309) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. We played against Jacksonville St. last Thursday and had a brutal beat with Sam Houston St. as it allowed a touchdown and two-point conversion with 13 seconds left that sent the game into overtime with the Gamecocks scoring the lone touchdown to cover by a half-point. Jacksonville St. is now 4-1 on the season but it has played the second easiest schedule ahead of only New Mexico St. Despite scoring 35 points last week, 21 were in the first 59:47 and it had not scored more than 21 points in any other of its FBS wins and now hits the road for a second straight week where its only loss of the season occurred at Coastal Carolina. The Gamecocks have benefitted from a +7 turnover margin and they have been outgained in three of their four games against FBS opponents. Middle Tennessee St. is on the opposite end of the records as it is 1-4 following a loss at Western Kentucky last week. The one win came against Murray St. of the FCS and to its credit, the schedule has been brutal besides that which includes a game against Colorado St. and two road games against Alabama and Missouri. The Blue Raiders have faced from excellent offenses yet the defense is holding its own to a degree, ranked No. 75 in yards allowed and No. 76 in yppl. As said, the Jacksonville St. offense has done nothing special even against a weak slate as it is ranked No. 72 in ypg and No. 82 in yppl. The weakness of the Middle Tennessee St. defense has been against the pass but the Gamecocks are No. 125 in passing ypg and No. 118 in ypa. 10* (302) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Giants have played 12 quarters this season and have only played good in four of those, two against Arizona and two against San Francsico. The problem is they got blitzed in the other two quarters against the 49ers, getting outscored 24-3 and they have had extra time to get ready to heal up. Injuries have played an early role in the lack of success but they will be getting at least one big piece back with tackle Andrew Thomas coming back after missing the last two games. Saquon Barkley is still out which might be affecting this line a little as is the fact New York is 0-3 ATS. Seattle is 2-1 with wins in its last two games which came after a disaster of a game in its season opener against the Rams. The two victories are making the Seahawks a public darling again but this team has their issues. They too are dealing with important injuries, especially across the offensive line and in the secondary. The latter is an issue as the Seahawks have been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 7.5 ypa which is tied for fourth worst in the league and their 328 ypg allowed is second worst. The Giants struggled to air it out against the Cowboys and 49ers but those are two of the best so they can have success here. With road games at Miami and Buffalo on deck, this has become a must win for the Giants. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (280) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. It has been an understandable regression for Minnesota which went 11-0 in one possession games during the regular season last year but has not dropped four straight one possession games going back to its postseason game. Turnovers have been a big issue as the Vikings are -7 in turnover margin and while difficult to predict, they can be contagious. Right now, they are not close to a touchdown favorite over Carolina on a neutral field yet the public is still on Minnesota and they are all over them again here with this line moving early and going over the key number three. Carolina lost a tough cover last week as it was within the margin for the majority of the game but could not run the ball and wasted a great effort from backup Andy Dalton who passed for 361 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. He is likely going to make another start with Bryce Young nursing that ankle injury and no matter who goes, the Panthers will be facing another poor defense that is allowing 5.5 yppl which is tied for No. 24 in the league. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Cleveland came through for us last week as the defense continues its historic early season pace. The Browns lead the NFL in yppl allowed with just 3.2 and they have given up a total of only 491 through the first three games. This is a pace that cannot continue and now will be facing the most dynamic offense it has seen. The loss on Nick Chubb has shown as even though Cleveland piled up rushing yards against Pittsburgh, a lot of that came on a big play after he left and they were held in check last week. We cannot trust Deshaun Watson two straight weeks. Baltimore was put into a tough spot last week coming off a bog road divisional win and then having to deal with numerous injuries last week. The Ravens are going to be healthier this week and they have a good matchup and after coming off an upset loss last week, the public is off. Baltimore opened as the favorite and it has flipped with the majority of places having a juiced 2.5 number and we should be able to get 3 with the Browns catching 88 percent of money and 80 percent of tickets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Rams are coming off a loss and hit the road again on a short week which has partially caused line movement the other way. Los Angeles is 1-2 with the win coming against a Seattle team that looks to have gotten things right. A loss to San Francisco was no surprise even though the Rams won the yardage battle and last week was just an ugly play called game that they should have ended up winning. Los Angeles is tied for No. 11 in opponents yppl at 4.9 and tied for No. 10 in offensive yppl at 5.3 so it has been above average despite possessing a losing record. The Colts are coming off an upset win at Baltimore which is the other part of the line move. At 2-1, is this a good team? Jacksonville has played into their record as the Colts played them tight and beat Houston which just defeated the Jaguars but the Jacksonville team is not right. We could see Anthony Richardson back at quarterback but neither he nor Gardner Minshew provide consistency in the offense that is averaging only 4.6 yppl, No. 25 in the league. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Titans are coming off a blowout loss against Cleveland and had an abysmal performance on offense, managing only 92 total yards against what has been the best defense in the league thus far and that was their worst offensive output in 49 years. The matchup this week is the complete opposite and it certainly cannot get any worse. They are back home where they own a win in their only game in Nashville against the Chargers and this has been a great spot in the past as Tennessee is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after scoring nine points or less. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season but it was far from easy as the running game could get nothing going for a third straight game behind a hobbled quarterback. Cincinnati is dead last in the NFL in yppl at 4.0 which is not what was expected when coming into the season but the calf injury to Joe Burrow is a bigger deal that anticipated. Defensively, the Bengals have not been much better as they are No. 20 in yppl allowed at 5.4 and after allowing 384 yards on the ground in their first two games, Derrick Henry could be primed for a big game. The public is not shying away with 94 percent of money and tickets on Cincinnati and we hope to see a 3 after already moving a point from its opening. 10* (270) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the UL-MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Appalachian St. is coming off a disheartening loss last week in Laramie as it was up by five points late in the game but had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and Wyoming went up by three points following the two-point conversion. The Mountaineers were driving again and were likely going to have a chance to tie but suffered a redzone interception and they fell to 2-2 on the season. The did dominate Wyoming in the stats and while that typically puts a team into a good spot in the next game, they go from a slight underdog to an overpriced road favorite based on name and program. Appalachian St. also falls into the worst of all rushing situations, allowing more ypc than gaining, gaining fewer ypc than opponent and allowing more ypc than opponent allows. UL-Monroe opened the season 2-0 and while one of those wins came against Lamar of the FCS, the Warhawks opened the season with a solid win over Army, part of their 2-0 home record. They are coming off a blowout loss at Texas A&M in their last game but had a bye last week to regroup from that defeat. The passing game has been a concern but they did not have to thrown in the first two games with a strong running attack and did not have a chance against the Aggies as they ran only 48 plays total compared to 73 for Texas A&M. 10* (196) UL-Monroe Warhawks

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We are seeing a reverse line move here with a big majority of money being on Georgia St. but seeing the go the other way. It has been a 2-2 start for Troy after winning 11 straight games to close last season and it has had some tough luck to its .500 start. While the scoreboard showed just a three-point win over Western Kentucky last week, the Trojans won the yardage battle 521-288 and its loss in the previous game against James Madison, it was by only two points with the yardage being equal. While they did lose to Kansas St. by 29 points, the game was a lot closer than that and it has been the same story in all four games, losing the turnover battle in all four and by a combined 10-4. Georgia St. is 4-0 following a win last Thursday against Coastal Carolina which is another oddity we are seeing a line drop because of the extra rest and return home. The Panthers were actually outgained 402-388 last week and were also outgained by Rhode Island of the FCS in their season opener. Overall, they are only +43 ypg in differential which is a very low positive variance for an undefeated team but unlike Troy, they have benefitted from a positive turnover differential of 7-2. A lot of this has to do with the schedule as Georgia St. has played the No. 157 ranked schedule compared to a No. 72 ranked slate for Troy. 10* (131) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Star Attraction. Iowa St. bounced back from a pair of tough one possession losses against Iowa and Ohio with a solid win against Oklahoma St. last week to improve to 2-2. The offense had its biggest output of the season against the Cowboys as quarterback Rocco Becht is finding some rhythm after taking over for Hunter Dekkers who was charged with tampering amid the sports gambling investigation as he threw for a career high 348 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The defense is once again leading the way as the Cyclones are No. 19 in the nation, allowing 299 ypg which is split right between the previous two seasons while giving up only 16.5 ppg, four ppg fewer than both 2022 and 2021. Oklahoma is off to a 4-0 start following a lackluster effort against Cincinnati last week and while that could normally be a motivator, the real motivation awaits. The Sooners have the Red River Showdown against Texas on deck next week and there is extra juice for that one after getting shutout 49-0 last season, the most points allowed by Oklahoma in the entire 117- game series history. They are now favored by more points against a conference opponent than they were in their last home game against SMU despite Iowa St. and SMU ranked just one spot apart from each other. Too many to lay here. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our Saturday Free Play. Oregon is coming off a blowout win at home over Colorado last week and while it was a big favorite, it came with a lot of hype and the Ducks were out to prove a point which they did. Now, they hit the road in a big letdown spot with a bye on deck followed by a massive road game at Washington after that. The thought is to get out of here unscathed with the meat of the schedule upcoming. Oregon has vaulted up to No. 9 in the AP Poll which is a factor in the big number as is the fact the Ducks are a perfect 4-0 ATS while covering those games by an average of 12.8 ppg. Stanford opened the season with a big win at Hawaii but has dropped three straight games including a pair in the Pac 12. The Cardinal are coming off a one point loss against Arizona last week in a back and forth game that was clean on both sides with no turnovers. In the previous two losses, Stanford gave it up five times and it can ill afford to do that in this matchup against one of the most powerful offenses in the country. One big thing that Stanford has been able to is run the ball as it is averaging 163.8 ypg on 4.3 ypc and success in that area can shorten the game which is important when backing a big underdog. Overall, the Cardinal have faced a schedule ranked No. 60 compared to Oregon which has played a slate ranked No. 108. Even with the massive number, Oregon is going to be a big public play this week after everyone watched them torch the Buffaloes last week and we will see nothing close to the same inspired effort from last Saturday. Play (174) Stanford Cardinal

Fargo is coming off win with Detroit to open Week 4 and he is on a POTENT 12-7 NFL Run! The NFL Regular and Postseason record is 79-55-1 (+$18,750) since the start of last season and Week 4 is loaded for another MASSIVE weekend with FIVE Sunday-Monday Winners! CFB off a win with NC State and SEVEN Saturday Winners!

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We won Hawaii in its opener in Week 0 as it hung tough in a long trip east against Vanderbilt where it lost by just a touchdown. The Warriors are 2-2 in their other four games, losing those two games to Pac 12 teams so their losses have been more than expected coming against Power 5 teams. They jump into conference action with a very favorable schedule and they can put it all out here with a bye week on deck. The passing game has been strong with quarterback Brayden Schager, who is averaging 269.6 ypg while completing 64 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns which is just one less than all of last season. UNLV is off to a 3-1 start but it is a skewed record. The Rebels defeated Bryant of the FCS despite being dead even in total yardage and another win came against Vanderbilt where they got outgained so based on expected simulated outcomes, they could be 1-3. Now UNLV is laying double digits against an FBS team for just the fourth time in five years and failed to cover any of the previous three times. A game against Michigan has strengthened their schedule but it still comes in ranked No. 132 in the country and while the offense is balanced which is a strength, the passing game is not good as they are completing only 57.9 percent of their passes with one touchdown against FBS teams. 10* (169) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Powerhouse Play. Missouri is great fade material this week with significant factors on both sides favoring the home team. The Tigers won for us two weeks ago as they nailed a game winning 61-yard field goal to upset Kansas St. and they followed that up with a win over Memphis last week. Now they fall into a tough spot that is twofold. With the 4-0 start, Missouri cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2019 when it got as high as No. 22 and it is currently one spot below that and it is always a good play against opportunity to play teams entering the poll this far into the season. Additionally, this is the Tigers first true road game of the season and are being asked to win by two touchdowns. Things have not been as good for Vanderbilt as it opened 2-0 but has lost three straight games although those have been misleading. The Commodores lost to Wake Forest by 16 points but were outgained by only 61 total yards, lost to UNLV by just three points but outgained the Rebels by 24 total yards and lost to Kentucky by 17 points despite getting outgained by only 37 total yards as the Wildcats scored two defensive touchdowns. The common theme in all three losses were they were negative in turnovers and -5 combined. Vanderbilt is 0-5 ATS as well which automatically adds value, especially at home at this price. 10* (204) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our AAC Game of the Year. South Florida came into the season with no expectations, picked to finish at or near the bottom of the AAC and coming off a record of 4-29 over the last three seasons combined. The Bulls have already gotten halfway to that combined total as they are 2-2 following a win over Rice last week. The one thing they do have in their favor is a closer than expected loss to Alabama as it was defeated by score of just 17-3 but the Tide are not the same Tide. The other victory came against Florida A&M of the FCS by two touchdowns but were outgained 393-360 but had a 5-0 turnover advantage. South Florida is coming off three straight home games and lost its only road game by 17 points at Western Kentucky. Navy was crushed by Notre Dame in its opening game in Ireland and then followed that up with a ho hum win over FCS Wagner. The Midshipmen did not get a scheduling break as they had to face Memphis on a short week the next Thursday but still played well in a four-point loss, outgaining the Tigers 432-408. The break comes this week however as they are coming off their bye week following a grueling early stretch even though it was only three games. The offensive running game should be the difference and defensively, they face an offensive line that has allowed 19 sacks, tied for second most in the nation. 10* (180) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. We backed Connecticut in its season opener at home against NC State but have held back since then which has been the right move as the Huskies are off to a 0-4 start and have failed to cover the last three games. This is the third straight home game for Connecticut and while it should have defeated Florida International, the Huskies were destroyed by Duke last week. it was a bad 34-point loss, but against a very good team and now they go down in similar class yet are catching a bigger than expected number at home. This team is loaded with experience so there should be no quit and this has turned into a must win if they want to have any chance of heading back to a bowl game. Utah St. has not fared much better as it is off to a 1-3 start with the only win coming against Idaho St. of the FCS. The Aggies go from underdogs in all three FBS games to a favorite and on the road in what has been a rugged schedule start. They do not have a bye until the end of October and have alternated home and road games to start the season meaning travel every week and now they go from Logan all the way to the east coast for an early start. Utah St. has had no running game, rushing for just 268 yards on 81 carries (3.3 ypc) against FBS opponents and the Huskies have shored up their rushing defense the last two games. 10* (128) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Toronto is 12-1 and has clinched the East Division following a win over Hamilton last week despite some starters resting. The Argonauts will rest starters on a rotating basis for the rest of the regular season and this week that includes quarterback Chad Kelly who leads the best offense in the CFL. In the lone loss this season for Toronto, he left the game early with an injury and was replaced Cameron Dukes who did not play well and will get the start tonight. The defense is expected to be down as well with their secondary taking the brunt with injuries coming in and this could lead to a big night for the Winnipeg offense. The Blue Bombers are coming off a loss at Hamilton in their last game but have the luxury of coming off a bye week with a lot on the line. They are tied with B.C. at 10-4 for the best record in the West Division with a meeting against the Lions next week so staying tied is imperative with two games remaining after that. Winnipeg is 6-1 at home and the home/road splits are big on both sides especially with the defense that is allowing just 17.6 ppg and 261.9 ypg. This is also a revenge game for the Blue Bombers after losing to Toronto by a point in the Grey Cup last season. 10* (672) Winnipeg Blue Bombers

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Friday Enforcer. NC State moved to 3-1 with a road win at Virginia last Friday and the Wolfpack head back home for their second true test. They lost to Notre Dame by 21 points in their only home game against an FBS opponent and that loss against the spread is part of their 0-4 ATS record on the season. That is adding value here with NC State coming in as the underdog at home. Intangibles can be looked at this point into the season and NC State has been great on third down as it has converted 51.6 percent on offense while allowing just a 30 percent conversion rate on defense and that 21.6 percent disparity is ninth most in the FBS. Conversely, Louisville is with a positive percentage but only 5.6 percent which is good for only No. 53. The schedule can certainly play a role in these but the ranking of the two teams is only 12 spots apart. The Cardinals are 4-0 but the schedule setup tells a lot. They rolled over Murray St. is their non-FBS game while they struggled to put away both Georgia Tech and Indiana which were both away from home and decided by a combined 12 points. Louisville did roll past Boston College last week but that was at home and it was a letdown game for the Eagles coming off a near upset against Florida St. The Cardinals first three FBS have been against teams ranked at least 30 spots lower in the power rankings than NC State. Louisville has done a great job running ball as it is averaging 237.2 ypg on 6.0 ypc but face a defense that is allowing just 114.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc so this is the Cardinals biggest test on that front. 10* (114) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and while they could be 3-0, they could also be 1-2 as their last two games were decided late. Green Bay blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against Atlanta to lose 25-24 and last week, it rallied from a 17-0 fourth quarter deficit to win 18-17. Two things have been evident. First off, the Packers have had the benefit of facing teams with quarterback deficiencies as Justin Fields has regressed from a great ending to last season, Desmond Ridder is simply not good as he put up a 79.8 rating in the comeback win and the Saints lost Derek Carr to a shoulder injury in the third quarter and the offense was not the same. Second, while Jordan Love orchestrated the comeback, he was inconsistent after finally facing a strong defense which will be the case again this week. He put up big ratings against Chicago and Atlanta but overall, he is completing only 53.1 percent of his passes. Not only does Green Bay see another tough defense, its own defense will finally see a quarterback that can produce. Jared Goff was not asked to sling it around last week so he only amassed 243 yards but he is completing 70 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lions were on the wrong end of a coin flip in overtime against Seattle and they never saw the ball in their only loss. Defensively, generating pressure on the quarterback was an issue the first two games but both Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith get the ball out quick and last week, the Lions go to Ridder seven times and Love has not shown the ability to make consistent, quick decisions. 10* (101) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The transition to the FBS has not been a good one for Sam Houston St. as it is off to a 0-3 start with the early schedule going totally against it. The Bearkats have yet to play a game at their campus home as they have had two true road games against BYU and Houston along with a neutral site game against Air Force and this has amounted to the No. 6 hardest schedule in the country. The offense has suffered as it has been horrid as the unit is last in success rate, yards per play and points per game this season but they finally get a break playing at home and going up against an opponent that has a much different start. Jacksonville St. is 3-1 but its schedule has been the complete opposite as it is ranked No. 168 in strength. The Gamecocks have played three of its four games at home including one against an FCS opponent as it lost by 14 points in its only road game at Coastal Carolina. Jacksonville St. has offensive questions of its own, yet to score more than 21 points against an FBS foe and this despite having a +9 turnover margin which is No. 2 in the country behind Penn St. so it has not been able to take advantage of this to go along with the soft schedule. This is not an explosive offense as the Gamecocks grind it out on the ground as they average 50 carries per game which is third most behind Air Force and Army and that has put the total as a ridiculously low 36.5 which favors the underdog at an inflated price. When factoring in the strength of schedule and other metrics, this line should be closer to a pickem than a touchdown. 10* (108) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of ugly wins and it goes into a tougher than expected matchup. Offensively, something is off even though the Eagles were able to run the ball all over Minnesota with 259 yards but they cannot have that success again against a much better defensive front. The system is basically the same as last season but having a new offensive coordinator takes time to adjust to play calling. The big mismatch though is on the other side of the ball as the Eagles secondary is a mess and will be facing one of the top receiving corps in the league which can do a reversal as well and open up the running game that has been pedestrian so far. We have seen this line drop despite the majority of the money coming in on the Eagles which are going to be a very public team come kickoff. Tampa Bay is also 2-0 to start the season and it can certainly be considered a fraudulent 2-0 thank to the Buccaneers being +5 in turnover margin. While he does get a bad rap, Baker Mayfield has performed well in this offense as he is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and has a 104.4 quarterback rating as he has avoided the turnovers. He will have plenty of looks downfield against this Eagles defense that has allowed 306 and 346 yards through the air in their first two games. While the Buccaneers defense has not faced an offensive line this strong yet, the fact they have allowed only 108 yards rushing in both games total still does say something. 10* (478) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Steelers came through for us Monday in a wrong side win as they were outgained 408-255 but the defense generated four turnovers, two that led to direct touchdowns saving some fantasy teams, or ruining some, along the way as well. Pittsburgh has now been outgained 799-494 in its two games and both of those were at home and now it hits the road for the first time. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has yet to hit his sophomore stride as he is ranked No. 30 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and looks lost in this offense. Part of the problem is that he has no rushing game to help him out and that is the issue on both sides. Offensively, the Steelers have rushed for 96 yards on 31 carries (3.1 ypc) and on defense, they have allowed 386 yards on 69 carries (5.6 ypc) and that is not going to get it done as the back half can only do so much. The Raiders upset Denver on the road in their opener and then jumped ahead of Buffalo 7-0 before the Bills took over last week. They are back home in Las Vegas for their home opener in hopes of getting their own running game going as they have ran for only 116 yards on 44 carries (2.6 ypc) but facing this defense can turn that around. Josh Jacobs is coming off one of his worst games ever as he carried the ball nine times for -2 yards so expect a lot more from him. The defense got torched by Josh Allen after holding Russell Wilson to just 166 yards passing the previous week and Picket will not have success. This line opened at even and move to the Steelers being the favorite but it has flipped to the Raiders side. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Carolina is off to an expected 0-2 start with a pair of division losses that could have gone either way if not or turnovers. The Panthers outgained Atlanta 281-221 but were -2 in turnovers and last Monday they could not convert in the redzone. The Carolina offense has stumbled the first two games behind rookie quarterback Bryce Young but in his defense, even though the sample size is small with just one other game played by the opposition, he has faced the No. 3 and No. 6 ranked defenses in yppl and now it will be Andy Dalton going up against the No. 30 ranked defense as Seattle is allowing 5.9 yppl and he is far from a downgrade. The running game has been just fine as the Panthers have rushed for 254 yards on 51 carries (5.0 ypc) despite Miles Sanders not breaking out yet. Seattle opened as the favorite at 4 and it jumped slightly to 4.5 and then after the Carolina loss it has moved all the way to 6 as of Wednesday. The Seahawks were outgained in regulation by 100 yards last week against Detroit after getting outgained by the Rams 426-180 so it has not gone great despite being 1-1. Give Geno Smith credit for bouncing back last week but he is still ranked just No. 18 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and with both tackles still hurt, he faces an underrated defense that is ranked No. 7 in defensive yppl. The one concern was Young coming into a hostile environment as a rookie but Dalton is experienced and better equipped for the surroundings so he will be just fine and let the defense to its thing in what looks like a field goal game either way. 10* (469) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against Cleveland on Monday night and won even though it was the wrong side as the Browns gave the game away with a pair of defensive touchdowns for the Steelers. Deshawn Watson was not good, especially in the clutch, but he went up against one of the top defenses in the league that people do not like to admit. The loss of Nick Chubb was devastating for him and not a good one for the Browns but not bad enough that they cannot overcome. They face another good defense here but they are in a good spot coming off that loss where they outgained the Steelers 408-255 but four turnovers overall did them in including the aforementioned two that directly turned into scores. Tennessee overcame an early 11-0 deficit to win in overtime against Los Angeles in a very even game where they lost the yardage battle by just one yard and it was a clean game with no turnovers on eighter side. The Titans come into a bad spot this week and while their defense looks good, they have allowed 282 and 281 yards passing the first two games which gives hope to Watson. The offense managed only 285 yards against the Saints in their first road game while settling for five field goals. Tennessee faced one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week after going against that tough New Orleans defense and it has another challenge here as Cleveland is the only team in the NFL where its opponent has yet to run a play in its redzone so this defense has been for real. This line opened 4.5 and went up to 5 but after Monday night, the line has come down considerably which is a big overreaction. 10* (454) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Game of the Month. One paper, this looks like a Miami lay as the Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start with both wins coming on the road while the Broncos are 0-2 with both of their losses coming at home. This is an opposite situational play based on that and we are getting value on top of backing Denver along with other factors that are not being taken into consideration. Luck factor is a big ingredient in finding value and this game fully falls into this metric with these teams on opposite ends of those ratings. The Broncos come in as the second unluckiest team at -46.4 percent as they have lost two winnable games by a combined three points. Denver was outgained by the Raiders by one yard and against Washington, it outgained the Commanders 399-388, albeit a big chunk coming on the Hail Mary, which is a slim margin but blew a 21-3 lead in the process as it fell apart down the stretch. Many are calling Russell Wilson a wash but there is more to it than a 0-2 record and an eye test as he is ranked No. 5 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats which include how yards are accumulated along with defensive pressure. Miami is the third luckiest team in the league at 43.2 percent coming off a couple games that could have gone either way. But because of the 2-0 start, the Dolphins are shooting up in the futures market to win the AFC and the Super Bowl while Tua Tagovailoa is now the favorite to win MVP and yes, he is ranked behind Wilson in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats. The records alone are factoring into the number which opened at 6 and has moved to 6.5 with 7 possibly coming thanks to 80 percent of money on Miami. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Falcons are off to a 2-0 start and were hammered when this line came out at 6 and when down to 4.5 shortly after and it continues to drop as it is down to 3.5 as of Wednesday with some 3-120 out there and a flat 3 could become available. Atlanta took care of a rookie quarterback in his first ever road game in the season opener and then was able to overcome a 12-point deficit against Green Bay last week. It has been a tale of two different offenses for the Falcons despite scoring 24 and 25 points as they put up 221 yards against the Panthers but upped that to 446 yards against Green Bay so we do not know much based on two games of 5.0 yppl and 5.8 yppl other than the fact the total of 5.3 yppl is middle of the pack and now the Falcons leave the fast turn of the dome for the first time. We played against Detroit last week as the Seahawks won in overtime with the Lions never seeing the ball and to be fair, that is a regular season rule that needs to go away. The Lions were overpriced last week against Seattle following their win over the Chiefs the previous Thursday in their opener and now we are seeing a reversal based on their loss and the Falcons undefeated start. Detroit outgained Seattle 418-393 despite not seeing the ball in overtime with 75 of those opposing yards coming after regulation. Detroit is No. 4 in the NFL in yppl at 5.9 and while the Falcons defense is ranked No. 3 in defensive yppl at 4.2, the success has mostly come in the passing defense as they have allowed only 4.2 ypa against young quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jordan Love but Jared Goff is averaging 8.1 ypa. 10* (466) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Star Attraction. USC comes in as a massive favorite which comes as no surprise as the Trojans have rolled the competition in their 3-0 start. They are averaging 59.3 ppg but they have not been tested as the last two games have come against Nevada and Stanford, ranked No. 132 and No. 105 respectively. The first game was against San Jose St. which was the best of the three at No. 78 and the Spartans were able to keep it close for a while and put up 28 points against this suspect defense. This will be their toughest opponent since then and the situation is not in their favor. USC is coming off a bye week which is insignificant here as its last two games can be constituted as byes and now the trojans hit the road for the first time with a game at Colorado on deck, also on the road. Arizona St. is off to a 1-2 start as it snuck by Southern Utah of the FCS in its opener and then lost to Oklahoma St. 27-15 before getting shutout last week against Fresno St. 29-0. The Bulldogs are a very underrated 3-0 but even with that, the Sun Devils gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 8-0 and no team is going to compete with a differential like that. To their credit, the defense played well, allowing just 350 yards of offense and holding Fresno St. to seven field goal attempts. Here, we play against teams with a turnover differential of +0.75 per game or better and after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better going up against teams with a turnover differential of -0.75 per game or worse. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. One of the late marquee matchups takes place in Happy Valley with Penn St. and Iowa squaring off in a big early conference showdown. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 while covering all three of those games which includes a win at Illinois last week in their Big Ten opener by a score of 30-13 but that was a misleading final. Penn St. won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards but were +5 in turnovers which completely skewed the game and the big win and cover are inflating this line which should be single digits according to our numbers. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 7 in our rankings which is equivalent to the biased AP Poll while Iowa comes in No. 20, higher than its No. 24 ranking in the AP Poll. This place in tough at night for opponents but this has never been a good matchup for Penn St. and it should be another epic battle. Iowa is also 3-0 and while its wins are not as big, they have been equally impressive considering the schedule ranks are separated by only nine spots so the level of competition has been very similar. The offense came to life last week which was big for the confidence of this team as they were finally able to get a running game going. It will not be easy here but the Hawkeyes still bank on one of the top defenses in the country that has allowed just 12.3 ppg and faces an offense whose numbers are inflated by a 63-7 win over Delaware. Here, we play on road teams with a scoring defense allowing 14 or fewer ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (425) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Texas St. opened the season with one of the biggest upsets of the season as it won at Baylor by 11 points as a 26.5-point underdog which immediately put the Bobcats on the map. They followed that up with a loss against UTSA by a touchdown but they were outgained by 130 total yards as it really should not have been that close. Texas St. bounced back with a resounding 77-34 win last week but that was against Jackson St. of the FCS but the Tigers are not a very good team even from that division. That victory has propelled this line to nearly the same as they were favored by last week which is a complete overreaction even though it comes against a winless team. Nevada is off to a 0-3 start that does include a loss against Idaho of the FCS but the Vandals are actually one of the best teams there, ranked No. 4 in power rating among FCS teams. The Wolf Pack were thumped by USC which is not a concern as they were 38-point underdogs and they are coming off their best effort last week as they lost to Kansas by just a touchdown that was not decided until late in the fourth quarter and they closed as four-touchdown underdogs. Texas St. has consecutive road SBC games on deck which put it in a tough spot coming off a feel good about itself win and going into a lookahead situation while facing a nonconference opponent. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off 2 or more consecutive unders and getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg on the season. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (397) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. The Ti-Cats have turned their season around and not only looking for a playoff spot, but one taking place at home. Hamilton has won three of its last four games to move to 6-7 and it has eased quarterback Taylor Powell into a spot where he has found success. He got off to a rough start but has come into his own as the Ti-Cats have let him open up the offense. Over his last five starts, he is 109-149 (73.2 percent) for 1,298 yards with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions and he is clearly becoming more comfortable. Toronto remains the top team in the CFL and is coming off a crazy win over Montreal that included everything down the stretch. The last two minutes saw a key interception that led to the game winning field goal as well as a blocked field goal to secure the 11th win of the season with just the one clunker loss in Calgary. Motivation is the tough part now as the Argonauts could have a tough time staying focused with no meaningful games coming up. This is a rivalry game and Toronto has dominated with three wins this season by 18, 16 and 13 points so we have Hamilton in revenge mode and with a new outlook. 10* (687) Hamilton Ti-Cats

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off a 10-3 season and comes into this campaign as the leading contender in the SBC West. The Jaguars are 2-1 to start the season and coming off a huge upset against Oklahoma St. last week as they won 33-7 as one touchdown underdogs with many calling it the biggest win in program history and that has inflated this number which is off by five points according to our numbers. South Alabama is a loaded team that brought back 18 starters but three key starters are out as its second leading running back from last season. The Jaguars had three home games last season following a road win and while they won all three, two were by just a touchdown as over two touchdown favorites and they open conference action next week on the road at James Madison. Central Michigan is 1-2 with bookend losses at Michigan St. and Notre Dame sandwiched around a win against New Hampshire of the FCS. The Chippewas have not done much in the passing game but this is a run first offense that brought back four of their top five rushers from last season. One of those is quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. but he missed the game last week against Notre Dame due to illness but will be back this week. He was the MAC West Offensive Play of the Week two weeks ago. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, returning five or less offensive starters going up against teams returning eight or more defensive starters. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (395) Central Michigan Chippewas