Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Louisville rolled over Wake Forest last week 48-21 but it was not because it dominated the Demon Deacons but because it benefitted from eight turnovers gained that included two interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Cardinals improved to 5-3 with the victory as they have won three straight games but they have been fairly average on both sides of the ball, ranked No. 55 in total offense and No. 50 in total defense. This is not a good spot coming off three straight conference wins with a game at Clemson on deck. The Cardinals are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. James Madison opened the season 5-0 in its first season at the FBS level and got into the AP poll at No. 25 but it has dropped its last two games as a double-digit favorite despite winning the combined overall yardage in those games. The Dukes are ranked in the top 20 in both total offense and total defense so they have edges on both sides and while the schedule has come into play, this team is loaded and the transition into the upper tier of college football has not affected them at all after being a dominant program at the FCS level. The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play on road teams averaging 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play in their previous game. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (337) James Madison Dukes

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS as part of our CFB Saturday Afternoon Three Pack. This is the marquee game of the week as Tennessee was expected to be good but it has proven to be one of the top teams in the nation that included a win against Alabama. There have been a couple other close calls along the way but it is impossible to ignore the fact the Volunteers possess the top ranked offense in the country, both overall and in scoring. This is obviously going to be a tough road environment but they got a good scheduling time slot and while they have played only two road games, one of those was a 40-13 win at LSU, a team that has showed how good it is of late. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Georgia is rolling again after a couple of hiccups a month ago against Kent St. and Missouri and it has still been the most dominant team in the country, outgaining opponents by close to 270 ypg but has played no one since its opener against Oregon. The two best opponents since then have been Florida and Auburn, the former sitting at 4-4 and the latter coming off just firing their coach. The Bulldogs are the most complete team in the country but now face their toughest opponent by far. Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams averaging 275 or more passing ypg. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (399) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS as part of our CFB Saturday Afternoon Three Pack. Oklahoma St. started off 5-0 and the preseason prediction of a Big XII Championship were in full focus but an overtime loss at TCU after blowing a big lead cut into that but last week was the real dagger as the Cowboys lost at Kansas St. 48-0, the first time they have been shutout in close to 13 years. They came in ranked No. 3 in scoring offense in the country but were held to less half of their season average on offense as they managed only 217 total yards. This is a good bounce back spot with a good number and Oklahoma St. is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. The magical season for Kansas has abruptly come to an end as it opened 5-0 and made it into the AP Poll for the first time since 2009 but has since lost three straight games. The Jayhawks have been outgained in five of their seven games against FBS opponents and the offense has decreased its production over the last three games as the absence of quarterback Jalon Daniels has hindered the offense and he is out at least two more weeks. One thing that has not changed is the defense that is ranked No. 113 overall and No. 102 in scoring and faces a fired up offense here. Kansas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after two or more consecutive straight up losses. Here, we play on road teams averaging 425 or more total ypg, after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (341) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our C-USA Game of the Year. UAB is 4-4 on the season and has been all over the place but a return home is just what it needs. The home team is 8-0 in its eight games and the four road losses they have sustained have all been by one possession and the Blazers won the yardage battle in half of those games. At home, all four victories have been by at least two touchdowns and while this is the toughest opponent of the bunch, the line is indicative of that as is the fact UAB has failed to cover its last three games. The Blazers have a big edge on offense as they are No. 33 overall including No. 5 in rushing in the country. UAB is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a loss against a conference rival and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset loss as a favorite. UTSA has won five straight games but covered only one of those against Middle Tennessee St. and while it brings in a very solid offense, it goes up against a Blazers defense that is once again stout. The other side here is the problem as the Roadrunners are ranked No. 105 in total defense and No. 92 in scoring defense which gives the Blazers offense that advantage. UTSA has dominated in its last two road games but those were against FIU and Middle Tennessee St. The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 111-53 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (410) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS as part of our CFB Saturday Afternoon Three Pack. Oklahoma looked as though it may not have missed head coach Lincoln Riley jumping ship to USC as it opened 3-0 but that was against weak opposition and the Sooners then lost three straight games when they faced teams with a pulse. They have bounced back with a pair of wins but those were against Kansas which was missing its starting quarterback, and Iowa St. that has one of the worst offenses in the conference. Now they again face a quality opponent with a defense that is one of the worst in recent years as the Sooners are No. 114 overall. The Sooners are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Baylor is also 5-3 on the season but has played much better than that as after getting outgained by BYU in their second game of the season, the Bears have won the yardage battle in six straight games including a pair of losses against Oklahoma St. and West Virginia with turnovers being the difference. they have the offense that can take advantage of this porous defense as they are ranked No. 27 overall and No. 15 in scoring while their defense is also in the top 30 overall and can shut down the Sooners rushing game. The Bears are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play against home teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (359) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After a 1-4 start, Army has won two straight games to move to 3-4 which is a very disappointing start after going 9-4 last season. Over the last three years, Army has improved in the final rankings, finishing No. 89 in 2019, No. 66 in 2020 and No. 43 in 2021 and the 2022 version was supposed to be even better but the defense has fallen short. After finishing No. 15 in total defense last season, the Black Knights are No. 92 overall and No. 93 in scoring defense but facing a similar attack should produce better results. Army is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games away from home after playing a game at home. Air Force is coming off a 19-14 home loss against Boise St. which was its third loss this season as a favorite. The Falcons have failed to cover three of their last four games which includes a 13-10 win over Navy which is a very similar matchup as the one they have here with the Midshipmen similar to Army in their schemes and the knowledge known how to defend. The possess the No. 1 rushing offense in the country and facing the No. 2 rushing offense this week so while they also have the knowledge that Army has, the fact they are laying over a touchdown is too much. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs averaging 225 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (322) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. We played against Utah in its last game at Dallas and while it lost outright, it stayed within the number to make it three straight covers. The Jazz are 6-3 which is still a solid start for a team expecting to rebuild as they are 4-0 at home but just 2-3 on the road and those two wins came in overtime albeit against good teams in Minnesota and New Orleans so those could have gone either way as the home teams came up small in the extra time. The offense has been fairly average however as the Jazz are No. 16 in offensive efficiency and No. 22 in floor percentage while the one big issue has been in transition as Utah is No. 25 in fast break efficiency. Utah is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games coming off a road loss. The Lakers have found something as they have won two straight games after opening the season 0-5 and while moving Russell Westbrook to coming off the bench might not seem like a big deal, it really has been as the rotations have been a lot cleaner and efficient and he gives them a better scoring option in those spots. The two victories have been impressive over solid teams in New Orleans and Denver and this is the third game of an important four-game homestand where they can make up some big ground. The offensive efficiency is still dead last in the league but that was because of the awful start and they have improved over the last three games and they have been excellent in transition, raking No. 2 in fast break points. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games in the first half of the season. This situation is 61-28 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (550) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Oregon St. is ranked for the first time since 2013 as it comes in at No. 23 in the AP Poll following three straight wins but those have come against teams that are a combined 3-13 in the Pac 12. The Beavers two losses came against two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Utah, the latter coming on the road by 26 points and their two road wins were against Fresno St. and Stanford by a combined four points. They are ranked in the top 50 in six of the eight major statistical categories on both sides but are not ranked higher than No. 30 in any of those so while consistent, they do nothing real outstanding and while the offense has an edge on the Washington defense, is will have a big disadvantage going up against the Huskies offense. Oregon St. is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games after allowing nine points or less last game. Washington was ranked as high as No. 15 in the country early in the season but a loss at UCLA at the end of September knocked it out and that was followed a bad loss at Arizona St. but the Huskies have rebounded with a pair of wins albeit against some poor opposition. They have some momentum back and return home where they are 5-0 on the season and have played here only once since late September so they will be fired up to be back and facing a ranked team. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games so we are catching some value because of that and on the season, it has covered four of its five home games. the defense has been a disappointment for this normally stout unit but have made up for it with an offense that is No. 7 overall and No. 10 in scoring as quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. has been outstanding, throwing for 2,934 yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 87-42 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. Toronto has been on a roll the last two games, defeating Atlanta and San Antonio by 30 and 43 points respectively, and the Raptors have won four of their last five games after a 1-2 start. They have won two in a row on the road but are 2-2 after losing at Brooklyn and Miami albeit by just a total of seven points. Those last two victories provide an ideal go against spot as it provides line value because the action will certainly favor their side. Despite a 5-3 record, they are ranked No. 15 in both shooting offense and shooting defense and while great in transition, they are just No. 21 in points in the paint. The Raptors are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Dallas is coming off a win but non-cover against Utah last time out to make it two straight to move over .500 for the first time this season. The Mavericks are 4-3 but two of those losses came by a bucket at Phoenix and at New Orleans with the other defeat coming in overtime against Oklahoma City to they could very well be closer to undefeated than .500 if some of those breaks went their way. Two of their four wins came at home by nine and 41 points. Dallas is ranked No. 9 in scoring offense and has been very efficient as it is No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in floor percentage. Dallas is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons. Gere, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 130 points or more. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (542) Dallas Mavericks

This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. Cleveland has been the surprise of the Eastern Conference as it is off to a 6-1 start which is still not good enough for first place because Milwaukee is 7-0 but the Cavaliers have been red hot. They have won their last six games, covering all of those but they have been pretty fortunate with three of those victories coming in overtime and four of the last five wins have come at home. They are banged up on the perimeter with point guard Darius Garland and shooting guard Donovan Mitchell dinged and are listed as questionable and while they should go, neither are 100 percent. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Detroit is off to a rough start as expected as it is 2-7 but both wins came at home, including one against Golden St., where it is 2-2 and one of those losses was by just five points against Atlanta. The Pistons have lost their last two games but those came against those 7-0 Bucks on the road so no harm there and they bring in a 3-1 ATS record at home. This is clearly a young team in transition but it is all about spots and this one is set up perfectly where they are getting the same number as the one against the Warriors as the Cavaliers recent ATS stretch is helping inflate it. Detroit is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games against teams shooting 39 percent or better from long range. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (534) Detroit Pistons

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Coastal Carolina was coming off a tough stretch where it snuck out close wins over Georgia Southern and UL-Monroe as a double-digit favorite and then lost to Old Dominion by 28 points, also as a double-digit favorite. The Chanticleers bounced back with an impressive road win at Marshall last week as a slight underdog and they come back this week as a small home underdog which has out heads shaking and this has been their wheelhouse as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs. Quarterback Grayson McCall has followed up his record-setting season by completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,061 yards with 19 touchdowns and only one interception and this has been done with less talent than last year. It is not just him however as it is a balanced attack as the running game is potent with C.J. Beasley and Reece White combining for 891 yards on 5.7 ypc. There will be some added motivation here as Coastal Carolina lost at Appalachian St. by three points last season which cost it a trip to the Sun Belt Championship. Appalachian St. is 5-3 on the season with tough losses against North Carolina and James Madison while also losing ugly to Texas St. The Mountaineers do have a big win at Texas A&M but it has become less impressive by the week with the Aggies struggles. The schedule has been in their favor as six of their eight games have been at home including five of their last six and travel on a short week for this one. The numbers favor Appalachian St. overall but the aforementioned schedule has had a lot to with that. Both teams are coming off solid defensive efforts and that has favored Coastal Carolina going forward based on the past as the Mountaineers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Chanticleers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (314) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. Memphis is one of many teams in the NBA expected to make a run to the top but have struggled early. The Grizzlies are 4-3 which is not horrible but the last two losses were bad ones at the overachieving Jazz and are now 2-3 on the road and we see value here in what is a great bounce back spot. The offense is humming along as they are No. 4 in scoring as they are again a great team in transition, ranked No. 8 in the league in fast break points and No. 7 in fast break efficiency. Memphis also has a big edge down low as it is No. 2 in points in the paint with 56 ppg and while the defense has struggled, they catch a short-handed Blazers team. The Grizzlies are 39-13 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Portland opened the season 4-0 before losing at home to Miami by 21 points yet rebounded after that with a 14-point win but that was against the 1-7 Rockets. The Blazers won that game without Damian Lillard who is out until later this month with a calf injury and that puts them in a tough spot playing against a solid team, especially one that is in need of a win after two favorite losses. Anfernee Simons now has to shoulder the load up top and he responded with a 30-point game against Houston but it is a big drop off after that. To their credit, the Blazers do own two solid win over Denver and Phoenix but those were at full strength and their 5-1 ATS record is giving us value here. The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Here, we play on road favorites coming off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (519) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Jazz have been one of the early season surprises in the league as they are off to a 6-2 start which includes a pair of back-to-back wins over Memphis in their last two games but those were at home where they are 4-0 to start the season. Utah is 2-2 on the road but those two wins came in overtime albeit against good teams in Minnesota and New Orleans so those could have gone either way as the home teams came up small in the extra time. The offense has been fairly average however as the Jazz are No. 16 in offensive efficiency and No. 22 in floor percentage while the one big issue has been in transition as Utah is No. 26 in fast break efficiency. Utah is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after having won three of their last four games. The Mavericks are just 3-3 but two of those losses came by a bucket at Phoenix and at New Orleans with the other defeat coming in overtime against Oklahoma City to they could very well be closer to undefeated than .500 is some of those breaks went their way. Two of their three wins came at home by nine and 41 points. Dallas is ranked No. 6 in scoring offense and has been very efficient as it is No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in floor percentage. The Mavericks have a scheduling advantage having two days off following their last two games being at home so they have not travelled in a week while Utah has to hit the road following a home game on Monday and note its last tine in this situation, it won at home against the Rockets and then lost at Denver by 16 points two days later. The Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Here, we play against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (518) Dallas Mavericks

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our MAC Game of the Month. Bowling Green has won two straight games to move to 4-4 on the season as it has already matched its season win total from last year. Last season, Bowling Green was one of the most inexperienced teams in the country as it played numerous underclassmen so it can be excused but this season, the Falcons have the most experienced team in the nation as far as returning production and that is starting to show. The Falcons opened the season with a pair of losses, one at 7-1 UCLA and the other being a bad one against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS by two points in overtime. The other two losses since then were against Mississippi St. and a resurgent Buffalo team. They have outgained three of their last four opponents and while the defense has not been great, Bowling Green faces a very poor offense and it is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Western Michigan kept its slim bowl hopes alive with an upset win at Miami to move to 3-5 following a pair of blowout losses. The only other victory over an FBS team came against Ball St. in the second game of the season with the third win coming against New Hampshire which happened to be the only game the Broncos won the yardage battle. Take that game out, and they are getting outgained by an average of 100.9 ypg against FBS opponents. The season comes as no surprise as they lost a lot from last season and their returning production on offense was one of the worst in the country. They are ranked No. 119 in total offense and No. 112 in scoring offense and they have scored 16 points or less in five of their eight games. Western Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 62 or worse. Here, we play against road underdogs off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Tuesday Star Attraction. Miami opened the season with four home games and went 1-3 before hitting the road for what was hoping to be a turnaround trip but after defeating Portland by 21 points to open, the Heat dropped the final two games against Golden St. and Sacramento. This does set up a revenge spot but they are now facing a team that is just as much in desperate mode but with a better roster to recover. Miami plays at a slower pace as it is No. 26 in scoring offense and No. 12 in scoring defense but the shooting percentages on both ends are not good. The slow start is being deemed due to too much individualism from the players whereas last season they played team basketball. Going back, Miami is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games. The Warriors have also lost two straight games to fall to 3-4 on the season and those were two bad losses against two of the expected worst teams in the league in Charlotte and Detroit so Miami will have their attention tonight. Golden St. fell to 0-3 on the road following those two defeats with the other coming against Phoenix and it has been outscored by an average of 16.6 ppg on the highway and no doubt teams are out to scorch the reigning champs, this team should not be allowing this to happen. Golden St. is playing at a fast pace as it is No. 3 in the league in scoring but sitting No. 29 in points allowed yet it has outshot opponents from the floor based on effective field goal percentages. Here, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games. this situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (571) Golden St. Warriors

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Buffalo has won five straight games after a 0-3 start that included a bad loss against Holy Cross of the FCS and overall, the Bulls are 6-0-1 ATS against teams from the FBS. They have covered four of their last five games by double-digits which is a big reason they come in as a road favorite. Buffalo does nothing special on either side of the ball as it is ranked No. 58 or lower in all major statistical categories on offense and defense. The Bulls lead the MAC East Division with a 4-0 record but extending that will be difficult here as they face another hot team that can overtake them in the standings with a victory. Buffalo is now 3-2 on the road but one of those victories came against 1-7 Massachusetts and now will be facing a team that is also looking for revenge after Buffalo scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to win 27-26 at home last season. Not to be outdone, Ohio has turned it around as well as it has won three games in a row and four of its last five after a 1-2 start and the Bobcats have covered four straight games and the only outright loss over that stretch came in overtime at Kent St. The defense was atrocious early in the season but they have picked up their game of late as they have allowed only 31 points over the last two games which has moved them to 3-1 in the MAC East Division and they can leapfrog the Bulls because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Digging deeper into the analytical numbers, Ohio is ranked No. 68 in EPA on offense and No. 117 on defense while Buffalo is ranked No. 67 in EPA on offense and No. 114 on defense so the numbers are nearly identical and with the Bobcats coming in with a 4-0 record at home, they have the edge as home underdogs. Here, we play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog of seven or more points, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Bengals have won four of their last five games following a 0-2 start and they have covered five straight games which makes this a great go against spot as they come in as an overreacted road favorite. While the wins have come around, it has kind of been a sloppy way that has accomplished that as Cincinnati has been outgained in four of its seven games by 175 yards combined. Joe Burrow is coming off a spectacular game after a few subpar efforts before that and the issue has been protection with the offensive line struggling against good pressure defenses and while Cleveland is not the best, it is far from the worst as it saw last week against the Falcons. The running game, even with Joe Mixon, has been non-existent as the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in rushing offense. On the other side, Cincinnati has not been good at stopping the run and while it shut down Atlanta, the Falcons had no choice but to pass and Cleveland has the third best rushing offense in the league. Cleveland is off to a 2-5 start but it has played a lot better than that as it has outgained five of its seven opponents but that has not panned out as the Browns have lost four games by three points or less. The offense has struggled the last two games against New England and Baltimore but scored 26 or more points in four of their first five games and overall, the offense is ranked No. 7 in total offense and No. 11 in scoring offense so give Jacoby Brissett credit for doing what he was expected to do and manage games. Cleveland has been inconsistent on defense but it has limited most of the passing attacks it has faced including allowing just 94 yards to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week and while facing Burrow is no easy task, we cannot forget he is without his best weapon as Ja'Marr Chase is out for a few weeks. The Browns were gashed on the ground against the Falcons and Chargers but have allowed 104 yards or fewer on the ground to four opponents. 10* (278) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Monday Supreme Annihilator. We lost with the Nets Saturday but are back on them here in another get right game. Brooklyn has opened the campaign awful as is off to a 1-5 start to the season following that loss against the Pacers but we see some serious revenge here. The first five games were against teams all expected to make the playoffs and overall, the schedule is still ranked No. 9 in the league but above average teams should still have more than one win in those games and three of those were not even close with losses by 22, 10 and 11 points. Brooklyn is ranked No. 28 in point differential and No. 30 in defensive efficiency and its once top ranked offense is now No. 15 in efficiency. The Pacers opened the season by going 1-2 at home with the win coming against equally bad Detroit and started their five-game roadtrip with losses at Philadelphia and Chicago by 14 and 15 points respectively before playing at Washington on Friday that resulted in a win and then another upset over the Nets the following night. The defense has been atrocious as Indiana is ranked No. 26 in the league in points allowed and this is no surprise with so many new parts and young players dotting the roster. While the Brooklyn defense has been even worse, it has the more complete roster. We are getting excellent line value here as Indiana closed as 11-point underdogs in the first meeting. Indiana is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of seven or more points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (558) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Minnesota continues its early season run of playing a very soft schedule and while San Antonio is off to a great start by their standards, that will not withstand and we are now dealing with a very manageable number. The Timberwolves are 4-2 which is okay but they should actually have a better record based on playing the easiest schedule in the league thus far and it shows in the spreads as they have been favored by at least seven points in all six of their games. This is already the third meeting with the Spurs and after losing the first one, they got their revenge two nights later and then followed that up with a win over the Lakers on Friday and this is the final game against the nonelite crowd as they have games with Phoenix and Milwaukee on deck. This will not be a lookahead spot based on their average record and the fact Minnesota has already lost once to the Spurs so they cannot take them lightly. San Antonio is the early surprise of the season as it is 4-2 as well with every outright win coming as an underdog and this has been a team that has clearly been coached up. The Spurs defeated Chicago on Friday by five points as a five-point underdog but the Bulls were shorthanded with no Zach LaVine and Minnesota is fully healthy. The offense has been playing very well but the defense still has a lot to be desired as the Spurs are ranked No. 29 in scoring defense and No. 28 in shooting defense and are again facing a strong offense that hung 134 points on them in the most recent meeting. Here, we play against home underdogs revenging a road loss of 10 points or more, off an upset win as an underdog. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (545) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Things cannot get much worse for the Colts on offense so a move from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger is far from a downgrade as Ryan ended his time in Indianapolis with an 84.7 quarterback rating and leads the NFL with nine interception and nine fumbles and was sacked a league high 24 times. Part of that can be blamed on the offensive line but Ryan as a statue and Ehlinger is more mobile and has had a week to work with the first team offense. The Indianapolis offense is No. 30 in scoring but that is due to turnovers and sacks killing drive because it is a very respectable No. 16 in total offense so cutting down the mistakes will drastically help this offense. The running game has been back which is a sur[rise with Jonathan Taylor but he has been hurt and in his return last week, he ran for only 58 yards but it was on only 10 carries and we can expect a bigger workload this week against a below average Commanders rushing defense. The Colts are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while going 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a divisional loss. Washington is coming off an upset win over Green Bay and has now won two games in a row, the other being against Chicago, following a four-game losing streak. Both of those wins were rather unimpressive with how those two teams are trudging along but the victories help us out here with the line in addition to the public being down on the Colts. The Washington defense held the Packers offense to 232 total yards as Green Bay went 0-for-7 on third and fourth down and while this looks impressive, the Packers offense has been broken all season. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke played ok in his first start as he was 20-33 for only 201 yards with two touchdowns and an interception but the running game made it up for it with a season high 166 yards and they will likely go that route again but the Colts rushing defense, while not the close to the best, can make a difference and force Heinicke to make more plays. This is a tough spot as well with Minnesota and Philadelphia on deck. 10* (272) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC South Game of the Year. We played against Atlanta last week as it got absolutely pounded by Cincinnati as it was over early with the Falcons having no answers for Joe Burrow and his sensational group of receivers but it is not the same this week against P.J. Walker and his receiving corps. The Falcons were gashed through the air for 481 yards as they had no pass rush to slow down Burrow but are now in a different spot against a raw quarterback with a shaky offensive line. Atlanta opened the season 6-0 against the number and because of the results from last week, this line that opened at -6.5 has dropped a couple points and there is now value on the Falcons that are in a great bounce back spot. They are now 3-4 having played the No. 9 ranked schedule in the league, going 1-3 against top 16 teams and 2-1 against teams outside that and are catching the Panthers at the right time. With the Buccaneers struggling, the Falcons are tied for first place in the NFC South heading into Week Eight and this is actually a big game as they are 0-2 in the division. The Panthers pulled off the big upset over Tampa Bay last week which snapped a three-game losing streak with all of those losses coming by double-digits. The Matt Rhule experiment did not last very long and part of the season was that Carolina could not beat the bad teams as going back, they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. The schedule has been in their favor thus far as the Panthers have played five of their first seven games at home and this starts the stretch of three of their next four games taking place on the road. Carolina has been outgained in six of its seven games with the two plus games coming by just 10 and 21 yards as it possesses the worst offense in the NFL, being held to fewer than 300 total yards in five of their games including both games on the road. Carolina has failed to cover its last six games going back to last season while the Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. 10* (258) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Dallas won its first game in the return of quarterback Dak Prescott and while it ended up being an 18-point win, the offense was not sharp until it was able to pull away late and a lot of this had to do with Prescott being rusty after having a few weeks off. Now that he has that first game back under his belt, he should be better off here and will look to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. The defense did the job once again as the Cowboys have allowed fewer than 20 points in six of their seven games with the lone exception being their game against the Eagles and overall, Dallas is No. 2 in scoring defense and No. 6 in total defense. Offensively, it has been a struggle but Cooper Rush did just enough to manage the games and with the offensive line getting better after each week, this unit can start rolling and this matchup will allow that this week. the Cowboys have played a tough schedule and they come in a perfect 3-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16, winning those games by an average of 13.3 ppg. Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. We won with the Bears on Monday as they rolled over the Patriots but that was more of a play against New England and the spot it was in and that Chicago victory sets up a great spot to play against them here. The defense was excellent as thy allowed only 260 yards of offense but they face an offense that is nearly back to full strength for a second straight week. this is a classic overreaction that we talk about a lot and in this case, it is even more so because this was the Monday Night game that everyone saw. Chicago was able to move the ball on offense in some capacity against the Patriots but still managed only 390 total yards and the Bears are ranked No. 28 in total offense and No. 24 in scoring offense and while they possess the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL, the Cowboys will shut them down as they have dominated opposing rushing attacks the last three weeks. The Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (254) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The old Lions seem to be back but with the market soured on them, we will be backing them here. After opening the season 1-3 with the three losses by a combined 10 points, they have lost their last two games by a combined 53-6 but injuries have played a big role in that with the two top playmakers D'Andre Swift and Amon St. Brown missing most of the last three games but both are listed as probable this week so the offense should get back to what it was early in the season. The last two games have brought the numbers down but Detroit is still ranked No. 4 in total offense and No. 9 in scoring offense and have gone up against two top defenses the last two games but that is not the case here. Detroit has averaged 38.6 ppg in its three home games as the fast turf has been on its side. The Lions defense has been the real issue as they are deal last in total defense and scoring defense but they have performed much better over the last two games with no offense to back it up. The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami snapped a three-game slide with a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday night but it was rather unimpressive with Tua Tagovailoa making his first start since being out with a concussion as it managed only 372 total yards but the public still loves the Dolphins. The offense is ranked No. 10 overall with the big game second half at Baltimore skewing those numbers and the Dolphins are ranked just No. 19 in scoring, putting up 21 points or less in six of their seven games. The defense has not been very good and while it is not on the level on the Lions, they are in the bottom third of the league overall, in passing defense and in scoring defense. The secondary has major issues going on and while they flourished against a rookie quarterback, they could be in trouble here. Safety Brandon Jones injured his knee and corner Byron Jones remains out while corners Nik Needham and Trill Williams were already placed on IR. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (262) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Fresno St. has won two straight games following a four-game losing streak and it is another team that can still run the table. The Bulldogs opened Mountain West Conference play with a loss to Boise St. but bounced back with victories over San Jose St. and New Mexico. Fresno St. is tied atop the West Division with San Jose St. and San Diego St., and a victory over the Aztecs would give Fresno St. a tiebreaker edge over both teams. This team came into the season as the favorite in the MWC West Division and the Bulldogs are still in good position to represent the conference in the conference championship game. Quarterback Jake Haener has been out with a high ankle sprain and it likely out again but there is still a possibility he returns and while Logan Fife has struggled overall as his replacement, he is coming off a good game against New Mexico and while the Lobos are trash, so is the defense he will be facing this week as the last two games have skewed everything. San Diego St. is coming off a pair of wins to move over .500 for the first time this season but those wins came against Hawaii and Nevada which are the two lowest ranked teams in the MWC and it is not even close and the Aztecs did not look good in either win. They outgained the two doormats by a combined 165 total yards which is surely a positive but those two games should have seen bigger yardage differentials as this is not a very good team which was known coming into the season. They were outgained in four of their first five games with the only advantage being their game against Idaho St. of the FCS. San Diego St. did defeat Nevada on the road last week and in the previous road game against a team with a pulse, it had only 114 total yards against Boise St. The offense is ranked No. 123 overall and No. 116 in scoring and scoring only 39 points against Hawaii and Nevada is not good. This is an excellent situation for Fresno St. as we play on conference home favorites that won as a conference road favorite by 13 or more points playing a team off back-to-back wins as a conference favorite. This situation is 55-20 ATS (73.3 percent) the last 75 occurrences. 10* (170) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Brooklyn has opened the campaign awful as is off to a 1-4 start to the season following an overtime loss against Dallas on Thursday but this is the game to get things right. The first five games were against teams all expected to make the playoffs and overall, the schedule is ranked No. 2 in the league but above average teams should still have more than one win in those games and three of those were not even close with losses by 22, 10 and 11 points. How ugly is it? Brooklyn is ranked No. 28 in point differential and No. 30 in defensive efficiency and its once top ranked offense is now No. 17 in efficiency. Clearly, it is early and the play of Ben Simmons has been anything but good yet there is so much time to get it right and this starts the stretch of five straight games where they will be significant favorites so this is a big week and a half coming up. Indiana is off to a poor start as well but this one was expected. The Pacers opened the season by going 1-2 at home with the win coming against equally bad Detroit and started their five-game roadtrip with losses at Philadelphia and Chicago by 14 and 15 points respectively before playing at Washington on Friday that resulted in a win. The defense has been atrocious as Indiana is ranked dead last in the league in points allowed and this is no surprise with so many new parts and young players dotting the roster. This is a big number but a justified one and the first complete effort from the Nets comes Saturday. Here, we play on teams after two or more consecutive losses in the first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost four or more of their last five games. This situation is 104-61 (63 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. South Carolina has won four straight games but it has been fortunate along the way with some deceiving victories. The Gamecocks started the streak with a blowout win by 36 points over Charlotte which just fired their coach and then came up with another blowout against South Carolina St. of the FCS. South Carolina then defeated Kentucky by 10 points on the road which looks impressive but the Wildcats were without starting quarterback Will Levis and last week, it was another upset against Texas A&M by six points but they were outgained by 112 yards as they jumped out to a 17-0 start thanks to returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown and then turning two Aggies turnovers into 10 more points. The special teams and defense have bolstered their scoring average as the offense is ranked No. 83 in the country overall as a strength coming into the season was supposed to be from transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma but he has underwhelmed by throwing for only 1,465 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions while getting sacked 15 times. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win. The Tigers moved to 3-4 on the season with a tougher than expected win over Vanderbilt last week as the offense sputtered but the defense once again kept them in it. They are ranked No. 22 in total defense and both units have performed well at No. 32 against the pass and No. 46 against the run and they will be facing a below average offense once again. After allowing 40 points to Kansas St. in their second game of the season, they have given up just 19.6 ppg over their last five games. Missouri is 0-3 on the road but two of those losses came at Florida and at Auburn by a combined 10 points and it outgained the Gators and Tigers by 73 and 95 total yards respectively. The worst effort over that stretch was allowing 26 points and that came against Georgia which shows the high level that the Missouri defense has been playing. The public wants nothing to do with the Tigers this week and that is just how we like it. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (127) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. Central Florida had a four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-13 loss at East Carolina last week but the game was a lot closer than that final score indicates as the Knights were outgained by only 32 yards but were -4 in turnovers and no team can overcome that. They are now 2-1 in the AAC which is good for a tie for third place and UFC can still run the table and it starts this week against Cincinnati. Last week, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee went 25-37 for 298 yards but he threw three interceptions which killed drives and the Knights are now No. 6 in total offense and No. 20 in scoring offense and while facing a tough defense, they can bounce back at home before hitting the road for a pair of tough games against Memphis and first place Tulane. The defense was not horrible against the Pirates but the points allowed were due to those turnovers and prior to that, they allowed an average of 14 ppg and now face a decent but far from powerful offense. The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Cincinnati opened the season with a loss at Arkansas but has reeled off six straight wins including opening 3-0 in the conference but it has not been dominating. The Bearcats defeated SMU on its homecoming as a failed two-point conversion late in the game ended up being the difference and they benefitted from knocking out Mustangs quarterback Tanner Mordecai. They are ranked No. 17 in total defense but even that is a bit skewed as their two dominating games came against Miami Ohio and Kennesaw St. of the FCS and they have allowed 24 or more points in three of their last four games and will be tested here. Offensively, Cincinnati is ranked No. 45 overall and while it is No. 24 in coring, a lot of that is due to the defense setting up short fields and as mentioned, will be facing a strong defense that is a bit underrated. While they have been winning, they have not been covering at a high rate and they are underdogs for the first time since that Arkansas game for a reason. The Bearcats are 2-1 on the road but going back, they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 10* (146) Central Florida Knights

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our ACC Game of the Year. Miami is coming off one of its worst games in recent history as it was blown out by Duke 45-21 as a 10-point favorite but committed a school record eight turnovers which completely wiped out any chance for the offense to get going as it was outgained by only nine yards. The Hurricanes were up 21-17 late in the third quarter when it all imploded as they were outscored 28-0 the rest of the way and they will be out for blood this week and laying a short price against one of the lowest ranked teams in the conference. Following a blowout win to open the season, Miami has failed to cover each of its last six games and by an average of over two touchdowns with miscues all over the place that has brought it down. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke left the game last week with a shoulder injury and backup Jake Garcia was trash but to his credit, he was forced into action with no practice time with the starters but he was able to work all week with them this week. The Hurricanes have outgained five of seven opponents and their numbers overall are very solid as they are ranked No. 33 in total offense and No. 34 in total defense so while their record is playing into this spread, the statistics are not. Virginia was fortunate to beat Georgia Tech last week as Yellow Jackets quarterback Jeff Sims went down and the offense went down with him as backup Zack Gibson could not move the offense, going 10-25 for 99 yards and Georgia Tech mustered just 202 total yards of offense. The Cavaliers also come in at 3-4 but they are a much worse 3-4 than Miami as they have been blown out in three of their losses while getting outgained by an average of 112.3 ypg. Virginia is ranked No. 90 in total offense and No. 123 in scoring offense and did nothing much against one of the worst defenses in the ACC last week. the defense has played at a higher level as the Cavaliers are ranked No. 38 overall and No. 43 in points allowed but do not have a ball hawking secondary that has only five interceptions on the season. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 230 and 275 passing ypg. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. The Lakers are 0-4 both straight up and against the number and they are obviously the talk of the league which is not a good thing. Yes, there is pressure but they are only four games in and the talent is too good for this team to be playing so poor and making this one more important is the fact they head back to Los Angeles for a four-game homestand and being 0-5 in front of that crowd is not ideal. We only care about the cover here though as this number is way too high as the public overreaction is working in our favor. The defense has not been great but it is one that can be worked around and it is the offense that needs to get it together. The Lakers are the second worst shooting team in the league at 41.6 percent and being in the mix with Detroit, Houston and Oklahoma City at the bottom of those rankings is not a good thing. Additionally, they are by far the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA at a mere 22.3 percent while averaging only eight makes per game but they have been at least better on the road in the two games compared to the two games at home. We won with Minnesota on Wednesday as it was able to win and cover the second game of a back-to-back with San Antonio and is again laying a big number at home. We know this is a very talented team but the Timberwolves have had the luxury of playing no one as they have played the easiest schedule thus far in the NBA. Many will put Los Angeles into this group but not quite yet and the fact it was getting five points at Denver in its last game and now are getting more than that which is too aggressive. The offense is in the top five in both shooting and scoring but that goes up against the strength of the Lakers as Los Angeles is top 11 in both and while both are small sample sizes, it is a benefit. While the Lakers have been brutal, it is too soon to lump them into the likes of those young teams like Utah and Oklahoma City and that is what this spread is telling us. Huge value on Los Angeles here. 10* (511) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. This has not been classic BYU football over the last few weeks as the Cougars have lost three straight games but it has come against some tough competition. They lost to Notre Dame, which is not having a good season but it is still Notre Dame with a load of talent, Arkansas from the SEC and Liberty, which is 7-1, the only loss coming by a point against Wake Forest. Overall, BYU has played a schedule ranked No. 32 and has gone 1-3 against top 30 teams while going 3-1 against teams ranked outside the top 30 and that is where East Carolina falls. The key number here is 0-6 and that pertains to the 0-6 ATS run that BYU is on which creates value and we can look back to two home games against Wyoming and Utah St. where they were favored by more than three touchdowns and while those two teams are ranked lower than East Carolina, the power ranking point spread differentials between them and the Pirates are seven and 12 points. The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. East Carolina has won two straight games, taking out Memphis and UCF and now is in a bad scheduling spot as it goes out of conference right in the middle of the heated AAC race with games against Cincinnati and Houston on deck so this is the classic sandwich spot. The Pirates are 5-3 including a 3-2 record in the conference and this is just the third road game of the season after playing six of their first eight games at home. They have an edge with their offense but they scored only nine points against Tulane in their last road game and we can see this offense having a tough time on the road again. East Carolina is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better and 10-27 ATS in its last 37 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. While this is a game for East Carolina to become bowl eligible, BYU is the more desperate team in need to right the ship. 10* (112) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Both Utah and Washington St. are coming off their bye week and they are sitting in the top and bottom half of the Pac 12 respectively. Washington St. is part of a group of six teams that have just one conference victory so it is not looking very good for a shot at the Pac 12 Championship but the schedule is in its favor down the stretch to get to five wins with a possible six with a victory here. It will not be easy but we are more concerned about the cover and this is a very good number. As a comparison, two home games back, the Cougars were getting 6.5 points against first place Oregon and are getting a bigger number here based on their two straight losses. Those were both on the road and they are 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming against that Ducks team by just three points. The Washington St. offense has been a letdown as it is ranked No. 89 overall and No. 95 in scoring but the splits are the reason as it averages 32.8 ppg at home compared to 13.7 ppg on the road. It will be facing a defense that has underachieved and they can have success here. Washington St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game. Utah is coming off a big win over USC to improve to 3-1 in the conference but it has not been overly dominant as the Utes are only +31.3 ypg in Pac 12 games. The aforementioned defense has been the problem as they have allowed 42 points in back-to-back games against USC and UCLA and while Washington St, does not possess the same potent offense, it is more than capable. The Utes have relied on their offense that is currently No. 20 in the nation overall and No. 11 in scoring but will be squaring off against a Cougars defense that has allowed only 20.7 ppg which is No. 27 in the country. Utah has won only one of three road games with that coming against 2-5 Arizona St. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games, with eight offensive starters returning. This situation is 54-19 ATS (74 percent) since 1992. 10* (108) Washington St. Cougars

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Tampa Bay is a broken mess right now and this is the time to buy following a 1-4 run that includes two straight outright losses as a double-digit favorite and we are seeing a double-digit line shift. The 21-3 loss marks the sixth time in seven games the Buccaneers have failed to score more than 21 points, averaging just 20.2 ppg and it came against a team that had lost 12 of their previous 13 games and were down to their third string quarterback. The offense has struggled to maintain any consistency which is incredibly frustrating with all of the talent around Tom Brady but he is partly to blame as well. He has thrown only one interception but has been bad on third down as they are converting at a 35.1 percent clip which is No. 26 in the league after a 44.8 percent conversion rate last season which was No. 5 in the NFL. The defense remains strong as the Buccaneers are No. 7 overall and No. 5 in points allowed but the defense is experiencing a three-game takeaway drought. Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Baltimore snuck out a win over Cleveland as it averted another late collapse and avoided becoming just the third team in the past decade to lose four times in the first seven weeks in games in which they held double-digit leads. For the third time in the last four weeks, the Ravens fell short of the 350-yard mark offensively and the last came against a defense ranked No. 29 in the league. The Ravens are still ranked No. 6 in scoring offense but have scored 23 points or less in their last three games. The defense allowed Jacoby Brissett and the Browns to stay within reach until the very end despite a ferocious Ravens pass rush and the defense is allowing 23.5 ppg which is No. 21 while allowing 366.4 ypg which is No. 23. They have a passing defense that has struggled so Brady can have that breakout game that everyone has been waiting for. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Nonconference Game of the Month. Things have not started well for Miami as it is off to a 1-3 start and most troubling is the fact all four of those games were at home. Now the Heat hit the road on the west coast for the start of a three-game trip that includes a game at Golden St. on Thursday and while that would normally be a spot for this to constitute a lookahead, that is not going to happen with the brutal start. Hitting the road at this time may not seem ideal but heat coach Erik Spoelstra said playing on the road could be beneficial because of the bonding experience and that can help a team like this that has had past success and now dealing with some early adversity. Miami was an underdog 23 times last season and won 14 of those outright. Portland is coming off a win over Denver on Monday to improve to 4-0 and it is a surprise as the last time it opened 4-0 was 1999 and the Blazers are the lone undefeated team in the Western Conference. Damian Lillard finished with 31 points and eight assists for the Blazers and he has been on fire as he was the Western Conference Player of the Week prior to that and he is now averaging 33. 2 ppg on 50 percent shooting while averaging 5.5 rebounds per game and 5.2 assists per game. The Blazers have impressively won all four games as underdogs and now they are in the role of favorites, albeit a small one, and we will take the value on the other side against the desperate team. This is the perfect contrarian spot with Miami 0-4 ATS and Portland 4-0 ATS. Here, we play against home favorites off a win against a division rival in the first half of the season. This situation is 82-43 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (555) Miami Heat

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. Minnesota is in revenge mode following a Monday loss against San Antonio and we are backing the Timberwolves again for a lot of the same reasons from Monday. Minnesota is off to a 2-2 start against three of the worst teams in the Western Conference and have a rematch with another. They failed to cover in their win over Oklahoma City as they won by seven as an 11-point favorite and then fell to Utah in overtime as an eight-point chalk and then bounced back with another win over the Thunder on Sunday before getting off to a slow start against the Spurs and could not recover. A 2-2 start against this opposition is not good on this easy initial portion of the schedule and a bounce back is important even early on in the season. San Antonio has started 3-1 as it lost its season opener at home against Charlotte by 27 points but has won the last three games on the road, covering all three numbers and winning outright as big underdogs. It is another transition year for San Antonio as it sent All-Star point guard Dejounte Murray to Atlanta and got Danilo Gallinari, who eventually got waived, three first-round picks in 2023, 2025, and 2027 and a 2026 pick swap so it is clearly playing for the future even though it has not looked that way thus far. The offense has been efficient but the defense has been the opposite and despite a 3-1 record, the Spurs have been outshot and outscored overall through those four games. Here, we play on favorites off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. This situation is 63-29 ATS (68.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (550) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Game of the Month. Primetime football has been on an awful roll and it continued Monday night with a stinker between the Bears and Patriots but value can be found and we have it here. Chicago came into the season with no expectations and it has played surprisingly well and despite a 2-4 record, its last three losses have been by one possession and it can thank the defense which has kept it competitive. The Bears are No. 15 in total defense and No. 13 in scoring defense and while the rushing defense needs to shore things up, they have held their own and the passing defense has made up for it. That is mostly due to being able to get to the quarterback as the Bears are fifth in pressure rate and have not needed to blitz a ton to do so and they can certainly have success against a young quarterback no matter which one goes Monday. The Patriots have won two in a row following a 1-3 start but they defeated an overrated Lions team that has scored six points in their last two games as injuries have killed them and then blew out the Browns but benefitted from four turnovers that led to 24 points. The New England quarterback situation is still up in the air as Bailey Zappe has looked very good in his limited action and Mac Jones is a gametime decision but the difference between the two is small enough to not affect this line or change the dynamic of the Patriots offense. Defensively, this is where Patriots have thrived against young quarterbacks under Bill Belichick but they have been average overall this season and the Bears have enough again to keep this one close. Here, we play against home teams averaging 7.3 or more passing yards per attempt and after gaining 8 or more passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 passing yards per attempt. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Monday Supreme Annihilator. Minnesota is off to a 2-1 start against two of the worst teams in the Western Conference and will be facing a fourth on Monday in a great situation as the Timberwolves are ready for another big breakout. They failed to cover in their win over Oklahoma City as they won by seven as an 11-point favorite and then fell to Utah in overtime as an eight-point chalk and then bounced back with another win over the Thunder on Sunday and we are not going to shy away from laying the big number here. Offseason moves have put Minnesota back on the map with the addition of Rudy Gobert and is teamed with Karl-Anthony Towns who finished fourth and third, respectively, the All-NBA voting for centers. In addition, this lineup is loaded with the backcourt of D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards along with defensive specialist Jaden McDaniels who has the length and wingspan that shuts down perimeter shooters. San Antonio has started 2-1 as it lost its season opener at home against Charlotte by 27 points but has won the last two games on the road, covering both numbers as underdogs. It is another transition year for San Antonio as it sent All-Star point guard Dejounte Murray to Atlanta and got Danilo Gallinari, who eventually got waived, three first-round picks in 2023, 2025, and 2027 and a 2026 pick swap so it is clearly playing for the future. Yes, they have played great on the road in the last two games with the offense showing great signs but will be facing a very strong defense that is No. 6 in shooting percentage allowed. This is a very young Spurs team and after having 22 straight postseason appearances, the Spurs will likely miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season. The future looks bright but not now and not in this spot. 10* (522) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Chiefs are coming off a loss against Buffalo at home and their brutal schedule continues this week. Kansas City has played the toughest slate in the NFL and have gone 2-1 against teams ranked in the top ten, where its opponent sits this week, with the two wins coming against the Buccaneers and Chargers. Despite the two losses, Kansas City is ranked No. 2 overall as it should be and this is a good bounce back spot in a scenario where it has excelled in. While Patrick Mahomes is just 8-6 ATS following a loss, Kansas City has won 11 of those 14 games as the majority of the follow up games have come with much bigger lines. Defensively, the Chiefs are in a good spot here as well as they possess the No. 6 ranked pass rush rate and will be going up against a beat up offensive line which will torment Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco has been all over the place with a 3-3 record and those three losses have come against the Bears, Broncos and Falcons. The 49ers have played the No. 32 ranked schedule in the NFL and the only top ten win came against the Rams which are not right either. San Francisco has rolled in its first two home games with the other coming against the overrated Seahawks and it is at a disadvantage on both sides. The acquisition of Christian McCaffrey is a huge one for sure but will surely be limited here so his impact should be minimal. The 49ers defense is banged up and while some pieces will be back but not at 100 percent, namely Nick Bosa and his balky groin, while Arik Armstead is out and Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga appear unlikely to play. Something is not right with this team and this is not the matchup to try and get things going the correct way. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. this situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. Cincinnati has won three of its last four games after losing its first two games of the season and it has yet to dominate any team thus far and that should come to an end here. The weakness last season was the offensive line as Joe Burrow was sacked 70 times and it was looking like a repeat after the first couple games but the revamped line has gotten a lot better and is in a great matchup here. The Bengals had issues dealing with good pass rushing team with two of their losses coming against the Steelers, when T.J. Watt was still playing, and the Cowboys. Now Cincinnati faces the worst pass rush ranked team in the NFL and it has had its way on offense against weak rushing teams, scoring 27 points against Miami and 30 points against New Orleans. Overall, the offense is ranked No. 20 and face an awful Atlanta defense that comes in ranked No. 27 overall. Atlanta opened the season with a tough one-point loss against the Saints despite outgaining New Orleans slightly and while it has gone 3-2 over its last five games, the Falcons have been outgained in all five games. The one key thing that everyone will point to is the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS which makes this a timely spot to go against that as this line is a lot lower than it should be. The Falcons will try to rely on its rushing game that is ranked No. 3 in the NFL but Cordarrelle Patterson remains out and only one player has gained more than 59 yards in the last three games since he went down. Atlanta is just 1-2 on the road and face a team that is excited to be home with four of their last five games taking place on the road. This is definitely a letdown spot after a two-touchdown win over the 49ers last week despite getting outgained by 57 total yards. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is probably the biggest bait bet for the public this week as the 5-1 Giants are going to see a lot of money come their way against a team two games worse but much better overall. New York is probably the biggest surprise through the first third of the season but it is not like it is playing that well as four of those wins easily could have been losses and in the six games, the Giants have been outgained three times including by 168 yards against Baltimore last week and in the three games they have won the yardage battle, it has been by 35, 29 and 37 total yards. The offense has done just enough as it is ranked No. 25 in total offense which includes a No. 31 rank in passing as it has relied on the running game but faces a tough run stop defense here. On the other side, the rushing defense is ranked No. 28 and the Giants have been outrushed in three games despite the strong push on offense. The Jaguars have lost three straight games including a tough one last week against the Colts as they blew a late lead. They are 2-4 overall and those four losses have all been by one possession which shows how competitive this team has been, something we have not seen in a very long time. Jacksonville is playing its third home game of the season, going 1-1 in the first two games but won the yardage battle in both of those games by 113 and 174 total yards. Like the Giants, they have a strong running game that is ranked No. 9 and unlike New York, they have been stout on defense, ranked No. 3 in rushing defense. This is a great spot with their season on the line and facing three AFC West teams in their next three games with just one of those taking place at home. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Colts are off to a 3-2-1 start but are the fourth lowest ranked team in the league that has a winning record, ahead of only the Vikings, Giants and Jets. They are 1-1-1 on the road with the lone win coming at Denver in overtime by an ugly 12-9 score and were shut out at Jacksonville while tying the hapless Texans. Quarterback Matt Ryan had 389 yards and three touchdowns last week in the revenge victory last week and while he has looked much better in his last four games after a very bad start, he still looks old and clueless at times. Surprisingly, the rushing offense has been a big letdown with Jonathan Taylor being banged up and while he is going to go here, he is not right and will be facing a tough rushing defense. The defense has kept them around and have the edge on that side of the ball here with the exception of the running game as they are ranked No. 21 in rushing defense. Tennessee has won three straight games after opening 0-2 and it is coming off its bye week which can hurt the positive momentum but for a physical team like the Titans, the week off is a positive in this case. This game could go a long way in deciding the AFC South as the Colts would fall to 1-3-1 in the division with little wiggle room despite a lot of football remaining as Tennessee would have the big upper hand with two games still remaining against Houston. The Titans running game and Derrick Henry should be the difference here. In the first meeting, he accounted for 60 percent of the total offense as he ran for 114 yards, 99 in the first half, on 22 carries (5.2 ypc) and he is fresh coming off that bye. Last week, the Colts allowed 243 yards rushing on 33 carries (7.4 ypc) so the titans are catching them in a very vulnerable spot. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. We are fading the Nuggets here after their big win at Golden St. last night which followed a season opening loss at Utah. The Nuggets are playing their first home game of the season which is obviously a big edge but this line seems short based on the fact they are playing a team expected not to do much this season and the number has already gone up from its opening making this a decent contrarian play in going against the obvious side. Jamal Murray is questionable again with a knee ailment and they are not going to rush him along as he is going to be a vital part of how far this team can go. The Thunder lost their season opener at Minnesota but covered the 11-point spread and now they are getting a shorter number against what is considered a better team which is part of the contrarian aspect. Oklahoma City caught a bad break before the season even began as No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren was lost for the season but the Thunder have a very underrated player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he scored 32 points while grabbing six rebounds, dishing five assists, and nabbing three steals in their opener. As a team, they shot just 38 percent from the floor but face a porous defense that has allowed 123 ppg on 49.1 percent shooting. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an road win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (569) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is a great spot to play on Kansas St. and play against TCU based on scheduling from both sides. The Wildcats are 5-1 on the season including three straight Big 12 victories and the winner of this game will take over sole possession of first place in the conference and remain the lone undefeated team in the Big 12. The lone loss for Kansas St. was a shocker as it fell at home by a touchdown to Tulane as a two-touchdown favorite with a lookahead to Oklahoma likely being a main reason for not showing up. After a low start, the offense has picked it up in conference action and it is backed by a strong running game that is ranked No. 7 in rushing offense with 244.8 ypg led by Nebraska transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez who is second on the team with 546 rushing yards. Defensively, the Wildcats are ranked No. 14 in scoring defense and is solid on both levels that can slow down the TCU offense. TCU comes in with a 6-0 record including a similar 3-0 record in the conference and while this is another big game, the recent run has taken a lot out of the Horned Frogs. They took out rival SMU at the end of September, winning the yardage battle by just 11 yards then followed that up with the blowout over Oklahoma. They were then the target on College Game Day in Kansas for the first time as they escaped with a seven-point win despite getting outgained by 88 yards and then last week, it took a big comeback to defeat Oklahoma St. in double-overtime. TCU is No. 3 in the country in both total offense and scoring offense with two games skewing those numbers, the game against the Sooners and another against Tarleton St. The weakness is the defense as they are ranked No. 89 overall and No. 70 in scoring and while the passing numbers allowed are inflated because of teams needing to pass, the rushing defense is only No. 53 while allowing 4.4 ypc. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (317) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We have seen a line flip here as Mississippi opened as a slight favorite but LSU money came in early and the Tigers are now a slight chalk and it has remained steady despite more money coming in on the Rebels. LSU rolled over Florida last week in a game that was not as close as the 10-point final deficit indicates to improve to 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the SEC and can move into a tie for first place in the SEC West with Alabama with a victory here. Two games back, the Tigers lost to Tennessee 40-13 as they were outgained by 147 yards but as we saw last week, the Volunteers are the real deal so that loss does not look as bad. They have been steady on both sides of the ball and while nothing stands out, balance is the key and they possess that on both offense and defense. The only unit ranked higher than No. 51 in the rushing defense where they are No. 69 and it is that low because of that Tennessee game. Mississippi has quietly gotten off to a 7-0 start including a 2-0 record on the road but those victories came against Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, two of the worst offenses in their respective conferences. The offense has rolled through almost every game with the exception of games against Troy and Kentucky with the similarities being those two teams possess above average defenses and it faces another one this week. The Rebels have outgained every opponent but the caveat to that is the fact they have played the No. 70 schedule in the nation which has been the easiest of all teams in the SEC while LSU has played the No. 27 ranked slate. The number is now telling us something as the Rebels, despite being ranked No. 7 and facing an unranked team, are underdogs showing this is the toughest test thus far. While we would prefer a night game in Death Valley, a late afternoon start is just fine. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (384) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Old Dominion is a team that is hard to figure out right now as it is 3-3 and leads the SBC East with a 2-0 record that includes a very impressive win at Coastal Carolina last week by 28 points as an 11.5-point underdog. The other conference win came against 2-5 Arkansas St. by just a field goal and the numbers have not been in their favor. One positive aspect is the fact the offense has improved its production every game, opening with 245 yards against Virginia Tech and capping it last week with 525 yards against the Chanticleers but that game was the first time all season that the Monarchs won the yardage battle as they are getting outgained by 95 ypg against an overall weak schedule. The issue has been the defense as Old Dominion is ranked No. 118 in total defense including No. 118 against the and No. 100 against the run and it is coming off a game where the defense was on the field for 80 snaps against Coastal Carolina and a repeat close to that would not be surprising. The Monarchs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing. Georgia Southern is a pass first offense which cuts down its time of possession but the Eagles are No. 2 in the country in offensive snaps so keeping that Monarchs defense on the field should not be a problem. The Eagles are coming off big win over James Madison last week to improve to 4-3 and picked up their first conference win after losing their first two SBC games by a single possession. Georgia Southern in ranked No. 3 in passing offense as it has thrown for at least 359 yards in four of seven games including a massive 578 yards passing last week. The offense is led by quarterback Kyle Vantrease, a transfer from Buffalo, after throwing for 1,861 yards in split time last season and he has had immediate success in this spread attack as he has been around the block for five seasons and has a plethora of receivers to throw to that are experienced and fast. The defense has struggled but have faced some very potent offenses along the way and get their first break in a while against a pedestrian offense. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 450 total yards. 10* (351) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Rice is off to a surprising 3-3 start to the season with two impressive wins over Louisiana and UAB as a double-digit underdog. The Owls were blown out by USC in their opener but the other two losses against Houston and Florida Atlantic were quality defeats as both were by one possession. All of this has led to a perfect 5-0 ATS run and that is clearly played into this line as they are road favorites for only the third time since late 2015, a span of 37 games. They rolled over McNeese St. from the FCS but in In five games against FBS opponents, Rice has been outgained four times despite a defense that has been pretty solid sitting No. 45 overall but No. 81 in scoring defense and that latter ranking is due to turnovers from the offense that has affected the defensive numbers. They have needed that defense to keep things close as the Owls are No. 102 in total offense and No. 74 in scoring offense and while they are facing a poor defense, they do not have a big edge in either rushing or passing. Louisiana Tech got rolled by North Texas last week to fall to 2-4 with the other three losses coming against South Alabama, Clemson and Missouri and while the second of the Tigers here are not very good, they are still a Power Five team while South Alabama and Clemson are a combined 12-1. The Bulldogs were a disappointing 3-9 last season and new head coach Sonny Cumbie brought in a new wide open offense that has not clicked yet because they have missed out on the clutch situations to score. They have the No. 20 ranked passing offense and while they have struggled running the ball, it should open up here as Rice is ranked No. 92 in rushing defense and it has been outrushed in all five FBS games. This line is a big overreaction and while the Bulldogs are not great, they should not be underdogs here. The home team is a combined 12-0 in games involving these two teams. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by 7.0 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 76-36 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (370) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS for our C-USA Game of the Month. It has been an up and down start for the Hilltoppers which are 4-3 following a win at Middle Tennessee St. but they have played better than the record shows. All three losses came by one possession and by an average of 4.3 ppg and they have outgained six of seven opponents, the lone exception coming against UTSA as they were outgained by only five yards. The biggest offensive turnaround in the country took place at Western Kentucky as after averaging 291.7 ypg in 2020, which was No. 121 in the country, it boosted that to 528.4 ypg last season which was second in the nation behind Ohio St. Bailey Zappe, who has turned into a household name after his stellar play in New England, orchestrated that offense and now it is transfer Austin Reed not missing a beat after winning the Division II National Championship at West Florida. He has thrown for 2,317 yards on over 70 percent completions with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions and has the No. 6 ranked passing offense in the country. The defense has been the weakness but it has not been horrible as the Hilltoppers are ranked in the top 50 in both total defense and scoring defense. UAB is 4-2 following a pair of home wins against Middle Tennessee St. and Charlotte which are nothing special and the home team is 6-0 in Blazers games this season. They have dominated the stats the last three games by an average of 193 ypg with Rice being the other team in the mix and UAB has been outgained by its two toughest opponents, Georgia Southern and Liberty. While they are sound on both sides, they are heading into a tough spot on the road and going back, the Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 450 or more yards in two straight games. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. this situation is 108-51 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (314) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. Arizona is coming off a second straight loss and it was ugly as it managed only nine points against the worst defense in the NFL and it ended up being its second worst offensive performance of the season with only 315 yards. The problem throughout the season has not been production overall as the Cardinals are No. 16 in total offense but the issue has been execution as they have had to settle for field goals. After getting hammered by Kansas City in the opener, Arizona has outgained its last five opponents but third down conversions are at just 34.1 percent which is No. 28 in the NFL but it has been much better at home at 39 percent despite facing the Chiefs, Rams and Eagles. The loss of wide receiver Hollywood Brown is a tough one for an offense that has struggled enough already but the timing is not bad as DeAndre Hopkins has served his six-game suspension and will return this week. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game. New Orleans is 2-4 on the season following a home loss against Cincinnati and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 27 in the league. The two wins came against Atlanta and Seattle, both of which have overachieved thus far and the Saints are heading into a tough spot here against a desperate team at home. This is their first true road game since September 25 after a game in London and then two home games and they have to travel on a short week. Overall, New Orleans has played better than their record shows, at least on offense, as it is ranked No. 5 overall and No. 11 in scoring but it has faced four defenses ranked No. 21 or worse and this will be the second toughest defense it has faced as the Cardinals are ranked No. 12 with Tampa Bay being the strongest it has seen. The Saints have struggled defensively to keep points off the board as they are No. 29 in scoring defense. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (304) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The coaching change at Georgia Tech was just what it needed from what we have seen so far. Geoff Collins was fired on September 26 after a loss against UCF which was the ninth straight loss against FBS opponents and Brent Key took over on an interim basis. The Yellow Jackets have responded with a pair of wins including an upset of then No. 21 Pittsburgh and then won in overtime against Duke despite dominating the yardage by 134 yards but it was closer than it should have been as Duke returned a punt 81 yards for a touchdown. Even in the 17-point loss against UCF, they won the yardage battle by 119 yards as turnovers, special teams and penalties did them in. Overall, the numbers are not great but they have edges in the right spots in this matchup namely in the running game as Georgia Tech should be able to control the line of scrimmage because Virginia cannot run the ball on offense and cannot stop the run on defense. Virginia opened the season 2-1 but those wins were against Richmond of the FCS and against Old Dominion by just two points. Since then, the Cavaliers have lost three straight games, all within the ACC and they were outgained in all of those and by a combined 301 total yards. They are 0-3 on the road and are the only winless team in the conference and while it was expected to be another down year, things are going bad all over the place. As mentioned the running game has struggled as they are No. 93 in rushing offense and No. 90 in rushing defense. The one strength has been against the pass as they are No. 43 in yards allowed but that is totally skewed based on teams not passing against Virginia because there is no reason to when possessing significant leads. A much better indication is their No. 69 ranking in passing efficiency defense and while Georgia Tech does not have a potent passing game, it can have success here especially after getting the running game going. 10* (308) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Wednesday Game of the Month. Appalachian St. is coming off a bad loss as it fell at Texas St. 36-24 as a 19-point favorite as it could not overcome mistakes and could not recover from a 30-3 deficit. The Mountaineers had two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 94-yards for a touchdown that ended up being a 14-point swing that ultimately put the game away. They outgained the Bobcats by 102 total yards and they have been outgained only once this season which was against 5-1 James Madison by just 78 yards in a four-point loss. Appalachian St. fell to 1-2 in the Sun Belt Conference so it has some work to do sitting a game and a half behind the leaders in the East Division. The offense has huge advantages here as the Mountaineers are ranked No. 34 in both total offense and scoring offense and while not off the chart rankings, they are definitely good enough against the defense they will be facing on Wednesday. Appalachian St. is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. Georgia St. opened the season 0-4 but has bounced back nicely with a pair of wins, one against rival Georgia Southern by eight points and an upset at Army by 17 points so they have been quality victories. There was not a real domination with the numbers though as the Panthers won the yardage battle in those two games by just a combined 161 ypg and hit the road for just the third time with the other game coming at South Carolina that resulted in a 35-14 loss. Their offense is decent, ranked No. 44 in the country but the scoring offense is just No. 65 and they face a very formidable defense which has had its numbers skewed because of that North Carolina game where they allowed 567 yards and 63 points opening weekend. The story here though is the defense that has not been able to stop many teams as the Panthers are ranked No. 113 overall and No. 115 in scoring and those are not skewed. They have allowed 33 or more points in five of six games. 10* (302) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS for our NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. Two likely non-playoff teams square off Wednesday with Detroit hosting its season opener before an already brutal schedule coming up. This is an important game for the Pistons as far as scheduling goes as they have three road games on deck followed by games against Atlanta (twice), Golden St. and Milwaukee (twice) so this is going to be the only game they will be favored in until maybe November 4 at home against Cleveland. Detroit is going trough a rebuild with a slew of young talent with Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and rookies Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren expecting to be big contributors. Getting Bojan Bogdanovic right before training camp was a solid acquisition of a veteran that can contribute and help develop the young roster. Detroit won three of the four meetings last season all of which would have covered this number. Orlando is in the same boat as it is rebuilding with a young core but are still a step behind and hitting the road six times in its first eight games is not ideal for a team that was 10-31 on the highway last season. There is no veteran leadership on this team and it would not be surprising to see the Magic tank again, which will not be hard, to be able to acquire the No. 1 draft pick for a second straight season. The Magic do have some key players out on Wednesday with Moritz Wagner, Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris unavailable along with Jonathan Isaac who is still out after missing all of last season. No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero could be the real deal as he dominated the Summer League albeit just two games. top to bottom ,this is a bad roster and has a bad setup in the opener even though it is against another bad team, the logistics will play a big part. 10* (508) Detroit Pistons

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. This line has remained relatively steady between 6 and 6.5 with a slight majority of the action on the Lakers. Golden St. is starting the defense of its NBA Title so Tuesday the Warriors will be dropping their championship banner and receiving their championship rings and this has been a lucrative situation over the years. Milwaukee won in this spot last season on banner night but the Bucks were getting points at home against the Nets yet historically, going against the reigning champions for the first couple weeks of the season has been the way to go as the numbers are overpriced early on. It was a quiet offseason for the Warriors up until the Draymond Green/Jordan Poole fiasco and while that has been washed away for the part, it is time to focus on basketball and Golden St. is tied with the Clippers and Celtics at +600 to win the NBA Championship. It is just the first game of the season but this is a statement game for the Lakers that were the biggest disappointment in the NBA last season and they heard about it all summer. It did not help matters that they went 1-5 during the preseason and that has been a big headline but it means little as head coach Darvin Ham used several lineups to try and figure out the regular season planned and he stated the Lakers will be better equipped to win games after all their players return from the injuries that came about during the preseason. This team is not getting younger so the time to jump on is early when they are actually healthy and one positive that came from the preseason was an improved defense thanks to the additions of Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schroder. The Lakers will be a play against for many based on the struggles last season but this is the best time to buy. 10* (503) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This is a great value play on Denver based on not only the line but that everyone is still sour on the Broncos which has moved the line. Denver is coming off a pair of losses including a 12-9 overtime loss against Indianapolis last Thursday to drop them to 2-3 but despite the bad press, they have been better than that record shows. They are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg and the big issue has been offensive scoring as they are dead last in the NFL with 15.0 ppg but this will come around because turnovers have been the difference. This is a good spot to get the running game going with no Joey Bosa and a rushing defense that is ranked No. 23 which will take pressure off Russell Wilson and the ineffective red zone offense. The Broncos defense has kept them above water as Denver is No. 3 overall, in passing defense and scoring defense which can limit the Chargers offense. Los Angeles is coming off a pair of road wins and while that can bring in some positive momentum, those wins were both very unimpressive against Houston and Cleveland as they won the yardage battle by a combined 95 yards. The offense was hoping to have Keenan Allen back but that is very unlikely and they will be facing a blitz heavy defense which has been an issue for Justin Herbert who is 27-45 for 350 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions when facing a blitz. Being back home is always nice but this is not a great home field edge and the Chargers are at the disadvantage of facing a Denver team playing on a long layoff with line value. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC East Game of the Year. Many declared Dallas for dead after a season opening loss against Tampa Bay where Dak Prescott went down but the Cowboys have circled the wagons and have won four straight games behind backup Cooper Rush. He has done very well in carrying the team but his numbers are fairly average and as he has not tossed an interception, he has only four touchdowns with a passer rating of sub-90. Overall, the offense is ranked No. 27 while their scoring average is No. 25 so they have relied on a strong defense to keep opponents in check but this is not a good matchup to keep rolling. In the first five games, Dallas has faced teams with offensive lines ranked No. 15 or worse over the last four games and the game against Tampa Bay was the only one a top ten ranked unit. Now the Cowboys will square off against the top ranked offensive line in the league on the road in primetime, not the ideal situation. The Eagles were the big sleeper team coming into the season and so far they have not disappointed as they are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and they have been dominant. They are outgaining opponents by 125.4 ypg which trails only Buffalo overall and they are doing it in both phases as their +55 rushing ypg is No. 2 and their +70.4 passing ypg is No. 3 and a lot of this is attributed to the aforementioned top rated offensive line. Philadelphia is No. 5 in rushing offense and that is the weakness of the Dallas defense which is only No. 18 in rushing defense. Jalen Hurts is a legitimate MVP candidate and while it is early, he has become a big threat and has the parts around him to make this run keep going. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Arizona is off to a 2-3 start to the season following a brutal loss against Philadelphia last week as it missed a late field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. It has been an uncanny start as the road team is 5-0 in Cardinals games and they fell to 0-3 at home, where they have not won since October 24, 2021, a span of eight straight games going down in defeat. Being favored on the road should not scare anyone in this spot and while some may question why they are favored at all, they have played better than their record shows and should not be scrutinized. After getting blasted by Kansas City in the season opener, Arizona has outgained it last four opponents and by an average of 59.8 ypg so it is safe to say they are playing good despite splitting out those games and the Cardinals take a big step down in class this week and need this before facing the Saints at home this upcoming Thursday. Seattle is also 2-3 following a loss at New Orleans last week and its 2-3 record is much different than that of the Cardinals. The Seahawks were fortunate to beat Denver and narrowly defeated Detroit in a shootout and they have won the yardage battle only twice by a total of 69 yards while getting outgained by a combined 379 yards so when they have been good, they have been average and when they have been bad, they have been horrible. We are eventually going to see what we expected heading into the season and that is a long road down the stretch and while the offense has been really good under Geno Smith, the defense is horrendous as they are dead last in total defense and second to last in scoring defense. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (269) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Cleveland lost a tough one last week against the Chargers by two points as it opened the game by going ahead 14-0 but was outscored 27-7 before the Browns were able to retake the lead in the third quarter but were shutout in the final quarter. A missed 54-yaard field goal in the final seconds pushed them to 2-3 and it was the first game they were outgained this season but it was still by only 22 yards. Overall, Cleveland is +42.6 ypg which is the sixth best differential in the league and it is one of only three teams in the top 12 that possess a losing record. Additionally, the Browns are +54.2 ypg in rushing differential which is third best in the league, trailing only the 49ers and Eagles. Jacoby Brissett has been solid so far as he is managing games well and while he did not play in this meeting last season, this is a big revenge game for the Browns which lost 45-7 in New England last November. New England is coming off a 29-0 shutout of Detroit against a good Lions offense but they were still down running back D'Andre Swift who is a big part of that offense. Quarterback Bailey Zappe won his first career start but he did not have great numbers with the exception of a high completion rate and there is a chance that Mac Jones returns but there really is not much of a difference between the two besides game experience. The Patriots have won the yardage battle in three of five games but just once in three road games with the exception being against Pittsburgh which is not saying much. The one positive is that they have increased their rushing output every game but a lot of that is due to running it a ton as they have averaged 4.6 which is good but nothing spectacular. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (258) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Oklahoma St. came into the season as one of the top favorites to win the Big 12 Conference and it remains there, tied with TCU at +300, right behind Texas which is +270. They are 5-0 but have not played like an undefeated team as they have been outgained in three of their four games against FBS opponents including last week against Texas Tech where they won by 10 points despite getting outgained by 93 total yards. That games makes this trip even more difficult for the defense as the unit was on the field for 104 plays and could get gassed here going against the best team in the country on offense as far as yards per play. Oklahoma St. is ranked No. 34 in offensive EPA (Expected Points Added) and No. 82 in defensive EPA and of the remaining 15 undefeated teams, they are the lowest ranked team in EPA Margin at No. 53 (10 of those undefeated teams are ranked No. 13 or higher in ERA Margin). TCU has been arguably the most impressive team in the Big 12 through the first half although some will argue Texas which is fair, but the Horned Frogs are ranked in the top five in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense. As for the aforementioned yards per play offense rankings, TCU averages 8.08 yppl which is just ahead of Alabama and Ohio St. and its schedule is ranked No. 67 compared to No. 30 and No. 38 for the other two which is not a huge drop lower. The Oklahoma blowout win has lost some of its shine after the Sooners got waxed by Texas but it was impressive nonetheless as was the win at Kansas last week despite getting outgained. This is just the third home game for the Horned Frogs and revenge is in play after their 63-17 loss to the Cowboys last season. 10* (186) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Toledo is off to a 4-2 start including a 2-0 start in the MAC with a pair of wins and covers the last two weeks laying close to the same number as it is this week but the level of competition goes up here. The Rockets numbers have been skewed but are balanced out as they rolled up the stats in their first two wins against Long Island and Massachusetts, two blowouts against cupcakes, but were rolled by Ohio St. to even those numbers out. The real disparity was last week against Northern Illinois as they won by 20 points but were outgained by 75 yards as they benefitted from a +4 turnover margin so it was a misleading final and the big margin of victory is going right into this line. Kent St. has seen and opposite start as it 2-4 but three of those losses were on the road at Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and the other defeat was also on the road last week at Miami Ohio by three points as the Golden Flashes fell behind 17-0 and could not recover. We played them against Ohio two weeks ago and despite outgaining the Bobcats by 286 total yards, the result was a touchdown win in overtime and those are the types of games that do not tell the story as everything going forward is based on scoring differential with rarely any boxscore info taken into consideration. Getting over a touchdown is big here and the fact that close to 70 percent of the public is on the Rockets is a reflection of the fact the home team in 6-0 in Kent St. home games and that is what we are bucking. Here, we play on road teams averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) Kent St. Golden Flashes

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Western Michigan is 2-4 following a bad loss at home against Western Michigan last week which also dropped it to 1-1 in the MAC. The Broncos have been a huge disappointment but it was sort of expected as from last season, only 11 starters came back to go along with a No. 124 returning production ranking so an early struggle could have been anticipated which came to fruition. The numbers have not been nearly as bad as the opponent on defense and overall, the Broncos have advantages in the three main categories of yards per play, yards per game and scoring average so the defense will be fine. The offense has been inconsistent but have the best opportunity to get it going this week as it has all season and we should see just that with a good edge of playing its third straight home game while Ohio has traveled between home/away and away/away games every week through six contests. This is the first of four straight winnable games. The Bobcats defense is horrible and are now a road favorite. Ohio took out Florida Atlantic in the season opener as it barely held off a late charge from the Owls and that defensive effort was a sign of things to come. The Bobcats then had a pair of tough road games at Penn St. and Iowa St. and the defense was lit up for 572 yards and 463 yards respectively which was going to be a given but last week was a total debacle as they hosted Fordham and gave up 52 points and 640 yards of offense. It got worse at Kent St. as they allowed 736 total yards and were extremely luck to cover and all said and done, Ohio has the worst ranked defense in the country and its scoring defense is ranked No. 127. The Bobcats had a better effort last week that was Akron and now face an offense ready to break out and there is no reason to think otherwise. 10* (190) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our Big 12 Game of the Year. This is the perfect situation for Iowa St., at least as far as a cover goes because overreaction happens every week and we are seeing that here based on recent results on both sides. Iowa St. opened the season 3-0 but has lost three straight games, all by one possession including the last two by four points combined as the offense shut down in those last two with 20 points scored combined. The defense remains a strength however as the Cyclones have allowed 14 points or less in five of their six games and now are getting more points than they have allowed in those games and on average for the season where they have given up only 13.7 ppg. The total defense is ranked No. 11 in the country, allowing 277.5 ypg and while facing a solid offense, it is one that it can slow down. This has been a great spot with Iowa St. going 6-0 ATS in its last six games as underdogs of three or more points coming off a loss while head coach Matt Campbell is 10-0 ATS his last 10 conference games against winning teams when getting double digits. While the last three losses for the Cyclones is part of the overreaction, the Texas 49-0 win against Oklahoma is an even bigger overreaction. It was a solid win over a very good Sooners team but a very overrated Sooners team that has been exposed the last three weeks on defense. The line opened high and has been bet up even higher which is giving us great value on the other side. Overall, Texas is ranked No. 37 in total offense and No. 34 in total defense which are very good rankings but nothing over the top that helps explain such a big line over a quality team. Coming off a blowout over their biggest rival can create a letdown but in addition, Texas has a revenge game on deck against Oklahoma St. while Iowa St. has a bye which solidifies taking the big underdog. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Michigan is off to a 6-0 start but has played a soft slate for the most part as the best opponent has been Maryland which resulted in a seven-point win at home and it did not come close to covering. The Wolverines opened with three nonconference games against Colorado St., Hawaii and Connecticut, three teams ranked No. 136, No. 166 and No. 150 respectively in the latest power rankings and the three conference games have been far from daunting with the highest ranked opponent being Iowa at No. 33. To put it in perspective, the Wolverines have played a schedule ranked No. 111 which is second lowest in strength of all teams that are No. 45 or better in the country. Yes, Michigan has the talent to make another conference run but not being tested, no chance to back them against a quality opponent laying this number. One big gripe about head coach James Franklin is the fact he has stunk in this role of an underdog against teams highly ranked teams as he has lost eight in a row on the road against top ten teams but the price is a big deal with five of those defeats coming by five points or less so we are not dealing with a history of blowouts. The Nittany Lions offense has been solid as they are ranked No. 38 overall and No. 37 in scoring and a solid rushing game has buoyed this as they are averaging 192.6 ypg on the ground which is No. 33 in the nation. The Michigan defense has been one of the best but against no one. This is a good scheduling spot for Penn St. as while it will be a full house at the Big House, a noon game is different than a home game at night where the energy is completely different. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing ypc last game. this situation is 60-25 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (127) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. After a 0-2 start with bad losses against Delaware and Memphis, Navy has responded with wins in two of its last three games, both being impressive conference victories over East Carolina and Tulsa with the lone defeat being a three-point loss at Air Force. This is the time to jump on the Midshipmen as they are playing their style again and the markets have not caught up despite this being one of just two games on Friday. Navy rushed for 455 yards in its last game against Tulsa and while it was only one game, it is in a great spot here against a defense that has allowed an average of 195 rushing ypg in the four games against FBS opponents. Overall, Navy is No. 12 in rushing offense, averaging 231.8 ypg and being able to shorten the game with the running attack is important being a double-digit underdog. SMU has lost three straight games following a 2-0 start including a 22-point loss at UCF which was a horrible spot coming off two postponements which messed with travel and practice issues leading up to the game last Wednesday. The Mustangs do have extra time in this spot which is significant when prepping for the Navy offense but an extra two days is nothing compared to a bye week prior to the matchup. SMU does have a potent offense led by a passing game that is ranked No. 4 in the country with 355 ypg but it does come down to the rushing game and the point at the line of scrimmage as the Mustangs have been outgained on the ground in all four FBS matchups. Turnovers are an issue as well as the Mustangs are -6 in turnover margin over the last four games. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl, after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. this situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Bears have been more competitive than people thought they would be as they are 2-3 and the last two losses have been by a combined 15 points on the road but the scoring numbers are misleading. Chicago has been outgained in four of five games, three of those by 127 or more yards and it is getting outgained by close to 100 ypg. The Bears have the 32nd ranked passing offense in the league and overall they are 31st in total offense so while the rushing game has carried them through the first five games, this is not a good matchup. Chicago has averaged 157.4 ypg on the ground which is No. 5 in the NFL but Washington has been solid against the run, allowing just 110.6 ypg and did a good job against Derrick Henry last week, giving up only 3.6 ypc. Washington looked like it was going to pull out a last second win against Tennessee last week but an interception from Carson Wentz from the two-yard line handed the Commanders their fourth straight loss after defeating Jacksonville in the season opener. Wentz was called out by head coach Ron Rivera and whether it provides motivation we will not know but is shows the frustration and this is the ideal matchup to get back into the win column. Washington has outgained three of five opponents and on the season and it is getting outgained by only 4.0 ypg with the biggest discrepancy being a 24-8 loss to 5-0 Philadelphia. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a turnover defense forcing one or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Chiefs accomplished their Super Bowl revenge with a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay but a return home keeps it rolling as this is just their second home contest of the season. Kansas City has outgained three of four opponents with the lone exception being the one home game against the Chargers where it got backdoored late on a touchdown with just over a minute left. The offense has not skipped a beat with the new receiver personnel as the Chiefs are No. 5 in total offense and No. 2 in scoring offense which includes a bad effort against the Colts where turnovers and special teams ended up being the difference. This could be considered a sandwich game with the Bills on deck but being a Monday night game against a division rival, that is not a concern. We played against the Raiders last week and it was a front door cover there as well with a touchdown with two minutes left. The victory saved the season after starting 0-3 and this is a daunting matchup in trying to get back-to-back wins and while the offense has progressively gotten better, facing an underrated defense on the road is a challenge. The Chiefs have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league so the big game from Josh Jacobs last week cannot be counted upon here. On the other side, the Raiders are No. 22 in total defense and No. 24 in scoring defense and should have no answer for the Kansas City offense. Here, we play on Monday night home teams coming off consecutive road games and playing a team coming off a home game. this situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (480) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC North Game of the Month. In one regard, Baltimore has to be livid after blowing a 20-3 lead against Buffalo last week but what better bounce back opponent could they ask for than divisional rival Cincinnati who blasted them by a combined 82-38 in the two meetings last season. Sure, it is not an easy opponent but because of that, we are getting fair line value in a rare situation involving Baltimore games where the road team is 4-0 in its first four games this season. In addition to the blown lead against the Bills, they blew a massive lead against the Dolphins and in a strange scheduling quirk, the Ravens opened the season with all four games against the AFC East and are a not to happy coming away with a .500 record in those games. The offense has done its part as Baltimore is ranked No. 3 in scoring and No. 12 overall but the defense remains an issue that plagued them last season. A change in coaching personnel has not helped as the Ravens are allowing 6.2 yards per play which is tied for fourth most in the league and while that may not be a good stat going into this matchup but they possess the No. 10 ranked blitz percentage and that can cause havoc against this awful offensive line. The Bengals have regained some of their footing as they opened with a pair of bad losses against the Steelers and Cowboys before bouncing back against the Jets and Dolphins the last two weeks. Those two wins fell right into their laps, however. New York was coming off that epic comeback against the Browns so the Bengals caught the Jets perfectly and the following week, they got Miami coming off a game against Bills in excessive heat where they had to play on a short week. This will be the second team they have faced coming off a loss and Dallas took care of business with its backup quarterback and now face Lamar Jackson who is putting up considerable numbers through the air and on the ground. Cincinnati is overachieving on defense thanks to a schedule that is ranked No. 21 in strength. 10* (478) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Arizona falls into another plug your nose side but situation and value trump any and all love that is pouring over Philadelphia right now. The Cardinals avoided a 1-3 start with a win at Carolina last week and they moved to 2-0 on the road and will be out to break their 0-2 record at home and it can be done. One factor that should come back to the mean is avoiding slow starts as the Cardinals have not scored in the first quarter in any of their first four games while getting outscored 70-16 in the first half of those games so the fact they are sitting at .500 in pretty impressive. It has taken a while for the offense to get rolling but this is where Kyler Murray can have success. The pressure of the Eagles pass rush is one of the best in the NFL at 32.2 percent and that showed last week as they sacked Carson Wentz nine times but Murray brings the added element of getting out of the pocket and making plays on his own. After a bad loss to the Chiefs, Arizona has outgained each of its last three opponents so they have been sneaky efficient. Philadelphia started to make some noise in the preseason as it was getting extra love in the futures market in winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl and those early tickets are looking tasty as the lines have taken off. The 4-0 start is putting them near the top of the Super Bowl odds and that is also helping week-to-week as the Eagles have covered eight straight games and the lines need to be continually adjusted and have been overpriced here. It is a mix of the public perception of the Eagles, they are very good to be fair, and the public saying the Cardinals suck which leads us into backing an Arizona team with excellent value. The power numbers do not like Philadelphia too much and we are not talking about the ones on TV that are amping the Eagles up as they are as low as No. 8 mostly due to a schedule that is ranked fourth easiest. They have been flourishing with the run but face the No. 5 ranked rushing defense in the league. 10* (474) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. San Francisco improved to 2-2 on the season with a win over Los Angeles and is now in a tough spot where they have to travel east on a short week following a divisional win and one that had revenge attached to it from the NFC Championship from a season ago. The 49ers are now again a public darling which is always the case for the winner of the two late standalone games on Sunday and Monday and we are bucking the public love in this one. San Francisco played another solid game on defense as it remains the best in the NFL close to through the first quarter of the season as the 49ers are ranked No. 1 in both total defense and scoring defense and No. 2 in both rushing defense and passing defense. On paper, the Panthers should be able to do nothing and that is a big part of why we are seeing the betting markets all over the 49ers with 75 percent of the money holding their tickets where the line has gone from -3 to -6.5 across places on Friday. Getting to 7 would be ideal but that is unlikely going to happen. Carolina head coach Matt Rhule is clearly on the hot seat as there has been some suspect play calling in certain situations but to their credit, the Panthers could be better than their 1-3 record shows as they have been within striking distance late of all three of those losses. They have played a weak slate thus far so losing all of those three winnable games is inexcusable so they are put into a tough spot here but not a daunting one as they do possess the big scheduling edge. Playing at home has not worked out so far on this homestand with a split against the Saints and Cardinals so the third straight home game will send them on the highway on a positive. Baker Mayfield has shown his struggles against heavy blitzes but the 49ers are not a blitzing defense as their 22 percent rate is No. 21 in the league so while they still create heavy pressure, Mayfield can get around that and not have the ball batted back into his face. 10* (472) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Not often do we see a game that has both situation and matchup heavily favoring one side but we have that here in what should finally be the Tampa Bay coming out party. The Buccaneers were given no favors by the schedule-makers for the early part of the slate, until now that is. They opened with a pair pf road games at New Orleans and Dallas and then came home to face two of the top teams in their respective conferences in Green Bay and Kansas City with both resulting in losses. Tampa Bay now gets its third straight game at home and following a pair of losses is the best time to back Tom Brady in a strong bounce back situation. The Buccaneers are ranked No. 25 in total offense and No. 16 in scoring offense as they remain unbalanced with the third fewest rushing attempts in the league and now that they are getting healthy in some key spots, the balance should work itself out. Atlanta is 2-2 and could be 4-0 or 0-4 or anywhere in-between and this is just the second test of the season. The first came in a four-point loss in Los Angeles against the Rams but the Falcons were down 21 points late and a blocked punt return for a touchdown and a safety made the score more respectable. The other three games were against three bad teams and overall, the early schedule is ranked No. 25 in strength compared to the No. 4 ranked schedule for Tampa Bay. The run first offense is in trouble here against a solid Tampa Bay rushing defense with the exception of last week and one that has Cordarrelle Patterson on IR leaving the bulk of the rushing to Tyler Allegier. This means the game could be put into the arm of Marcus Mariota and that is not what Atlanta wants as he comes in with a passer rating that is fifth lowest in the league. Defensively, the Falcons have three quarterback hurries on the season, yes three in total, and their 1.9 percent hurry percentage is the lowest in the NFL which is not ideal when facing Brady coming off a pair of losses and some rare scrutiny coming his way. 10* (460) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Everyone is down on Washington and that is hard to provide pushback on as the Commanders have lost three straight games following a season opening win against Jacksonville. Two of the three losses were on the road where they were outgained by only 29 yards against Detroit and actually outgained Dallas by 18 yards in the loss last week while the home defeat came against Philadelphia. We are not saying Washington is a very good team but it is not a four to five-point underdog to Tennessee on a neutral field. One very quick comparison to show how close these teams are is to look at the top level of both sides. In total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense, Washington is ranked between No. 23 and No. 29 in all four categories while Tennessee is ranked between No. 22 and No. 29 in those categories so this is a wash. The Commanders struggled to score points the last two divisional games but they did score 28 and 27 points in the first two games of the season and now face a defense that is going to allow them to move the ball without much resistance. Tennessee allows 6.3 yards per play which is third highest in the league behind only Seattle and Detroit so do not believe anything you hear that the Titans possess a strong defense because they do not anymore. The Titans won for us last week against the Colts despite getting outgained as they benefitted from a +3 turnover differential and now at 2-2 overall, they are overpriced. Tennessee has been outgained in all four games and while that aforementioned defense can take a lot of the blame, the offense is not far behind. The Titans are bottom third in everything and while they have averaged 360 ypg in two home games, they have averaged only 215 ypg in two road games and while this will be the worst defense they have seen, Ryan Tannehill is not going to strike fear as his No. 15 quarterback rating is about right. Treylon Burks is out and while he has not lived up to expectations just yet, it shows the impact of the loss of A.J. Brown. 10* (464) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. This is a very good spot for Arizona as it catches Oregon on a winning streak feeling good about itself and looking forward to a big game against UCLA next week. The Ducks got their doors blown off against Georgia in their series opener but have rolled through their last four games including impressive wins against BYU and at Washington St. and they are definitely in danger of a lookahead here. The Oregon offense has been just fine as expected and the big improvement was supposed to be the defense with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia to take over as head coach but the unit has not come round yet as Oregon is ranked No. 72 in total defense and No. 98 in scoring defense. As for the offense, Bo Nix has been excellent at quarterback over the last four games with 12 touchdowns and just one interception but this is Bo Nix we are talking about and put him in a tough road environment at night and his SEC road nightmares could come back to life. We expected Arizona to have a turnaround season as we took the over 2.5/3 wins and a win or a push is assured but all tickets will cash and the Wildcats have a great opportunity to see where they actually are in the Pac 12 hierarchy. The Wildcats opened the season with a win over San Diego St. and while the Aztecs are not very good, it was on the road, it was a needed confidence boost and it was a dominating performance. The two losses came against Mississippi St. and California and while both were by more than two touchdowns, they were outgained by only a combined 195 total yards so both were closer than what the final score indicated. Arizona rolled Colorado last week which is not saying much but it was another opportunity to get some meaningful time for quarterback Jayden de Laura who is a transfer from Washington St. and has shown what he can do especially now being used to his new receivers. 10* (364) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Big Ten Conference Game of the Year. The Big Ten has produced some early season surprises with Illinois being one of those as it is off to a 4-1 start including a 1-1 record in the conference and it could be 5-0. The loss to the Hoosiers was a tough one as Illinois outgained Indiana 448-362, had nine more first downs and controlled the clock for over 13 more minutes but had four turnovers and it had chances late as it got into Indiana territory on four straight possessions but resulted in just one field goal as it had a fumble, and interception and a turnover on downs at the Indiana four-yard line. The Illini have outgained all five opponents as they have been buoyed by a defense that has been incredible, ranking No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 3 in total defense and we saw what just happened to Wisconsin. While there might be the scare of a letdown, Illinois has not had a start like this in a long time so they are not going to look past this one, especially considering it is Iowa. This one sets up almost identical to another game we are playing based on one time intangible. The schedule worked in the favor of Illinois this week as they are playing at 7:30 ET which is the only Big Ten game with a kickoff scheduled past 4:00 ET so the Illini will have a significant home field edge as opposed to playing at 3:30 ET which was the original kickoff time. This is a rare instance for Illinois and we are going to back these unique occasions as this is just the second time in the last 20 games that the Illini are favored in a Big Ten game and they have not been favored over Iowa since 2008. Iowa recovered from its first loss of the season against Iowa St. but that next game was against Nevada and now at 3-2, the Hawkeyes are showing who they are. They have a strong defense but the offense is abysmal as they are ranked No. 119 or worse in all four major offensive categories. 10* (394) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Iowa St. is coming off a tough loss against the surprising Jayhawks as it missed three field goals late in the game that could have sent the game into overtime which came after a seven-point home loss against Baylor the previous week. The Cyclones need to shake those off quickly as they face one of the hottest teams in the Big XII and then are at Texas next week so a non-fully focused team this week could be a partial reason for a possible 0-4 start in the conference prior to their bye week. The defense has been exceptional as Iowa St. is ranked No. 8 overall and No. 11 in points allowed and it has been strong against both the run and the pass. Offensively, they have been below average and quarterback Hunter Dekkers has been pretty solid but his six interceptions has held him back and the Wildcats are nothing special on defense. The schedule worked in their favor this week as they are playing at 7:30 ET which is the only Big XII game with a kickoff scheduled past 3:30 ET and Iowa St. will have a significant home field edge as opposed to playing at 1:00 ET which was the original kickoff time. The Wildcats are coming off a pair of wins against Oklahoma and Texas Tech and that Sooners victory is not as strong anymore after their blowout loss against TCU. For the Kansas St. offense, it is basically what you see is what you get as the Wildcats are ranked No. 3 in rushing offense and No. 122 in passing offense and this is not an ideal style especially when facing a great defense and the style is only good for a total ranked offense of just No. 69. Adrian Martinez has carried the offense the last two weeks as he has seven rushing touchdowns and 319 yards on the ground against Oklahoma and Texas Tech but Iowa St. has the defense that can slow that down especially after seeing what the Cyclones did to Jalon Daniels last week despite the loss. 10* (356) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. The public is starting to catch up to James Madison. In their first year at the FBS level, the Dukes are 4-0 and have covered all four games by a total of 61.5 points against the number. Their number got inflated last week against Texas St. and it was not enough and now they are playing their first ever road game as favorites and big ones for that matter. One cause for concern as that the Dukes know how to win on the road going back to the FCS days as they have won 13 straight away from home but of course, the opposition was much weaker and this is an interesting line. James Madison was getting six points in its only other road game this season and is now a double-digit favorite. The Dukes have been great on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 8 in scoring offense and No. 9 in scoring defense but it has come against a schedule ranked No. 157 in the nation. The ATS record of Arkansas St. offsets the James Madison spread record as the Red Wolves are 5-0 against the number but their success is not being taken into consideration in this spread based on our raw numbers so there is value on the home team. The Red Wolves are 2-3 to start the season and those two wins have already matched their win total from last season which two of their losses were close games late and the other defeat was at Ohio St. The offense is making strides as after being one of the worst in the country last season, they have been much more efficient and balanced and while facing a tough defense here, they will be able to keep up a chance for the outright upset is definitely in play. Quarterback James Blackman has been very solid as he has thrown for 1,212 yards on 69.7 percent completions with seven touchdowns and just one interception and he has big time experience coming from Florida St. 10* (354) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. We played against UTEP last week and going into the game, a question was asked. Which UTEP team shows up here? The one that narrowly defeated bad New Mexico St. (and we can add Charlotte to that now) team and lost by 17 points to an equally bad New Mexico team or the one that just defeated Boise St. by 17 points as a 16.5-point underdog? Last week, UTEP returned two fumbles for touchdowns and overall, had four takeaways which explains losing the yardage battle by 18 yards against the 49ers. Playing six games in the first six weeks of the season has its benefits as they know what they have, or at least should know what they have, and any lack of chemistry should be gone, but on the flip side, playing six straight weeks can be grueling especially with the way their schedule has panned out. The Miners have alternated home and road games through the first six contests so there has been no two-week stretch of being at home since late August. This team could be gassed. Louisiana Tech has gotten off to a rough start as it is 1-3 but the schedule has dictated that record as the lone victory came against Stephen F. Austin of the FCS while the losses on the road were at Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama. The game last week against the Jaguars would have been the one true game to look at to see where this team stands but nothing could come out of it as the Bulldogs had five turnovers including four interceptions from quarterback Parker McNeil so we can toss that out. Louisiana Tech came into the season with a new head coach in Sonny Cumbie and a new system to get the fledging offense back on track. He directed the Air Raid offenses at TCU and Texas Tech as offensive coordinator and if he can get the most out of the quarterback here, there should be plenty of points against this Miners defense. The small favorite collects. 10* (408) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This one has the makings of a name the score game for Central Michigan, similar to Kent St. last week as it outgained Ohio by 300 total yards but failed to cover for us, as the Chippewas are back home following a pair of road losses at Penn St. and Toledo to fall to 1-4 on the season. The schedule has been brutal with the other two losses coming against Oklahoma St. and South Alabama and the four losses have come against teams a combined 16-3. Coming off the loss against the Rockets, there is now work to be done in the MAC West with the Chippewas needing to go to 1-1 after this game with favorable schedule on the way to get some momentum going. The offense has been slowed down the last two weeks as Central Michigan managed only 31 points in the two contests yet the offense is still decent in the rankings thanks to previous success and now they face a defense that has been awful against FBS opponents. Taking a look at what the defense has done is not going to show much of what can take place going forward based on the difficulty of the slate. Ball St. is 2-3 to start the season with the wins coming against Murray St. of the FCS 31-0 and Northern Illinois last week by six points in double overtime as it overcame a 17-point deficit at half time. The offense has been pretty good over the last four games but only one of those was on the road which came against Georgia Southern and the defense has been the real story of why the Cardinals are not good now with not much expected to change. Taking away the 0 points and 155 yards allowed against Murray St. and the defensive averages go from an already bad 432.2 ypg and 33.6 ppg to 501.5 ypg and 42 ppg and anything north of 500 and 40 is not very good. A big issue has been allowing easy yards on the ground and that is heightened by the fact Ball St. has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns through its first five games. 10* (398) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. Typically, revenge comes into play following a bad loss the previous season but the situation is different here with Nevada being all amped up for this game not because of a loss but because of former head coach Jay Norvell coming back to Reno after bolting for Colorado St. last season prior to the Wolf Pack bowl game and taking many of the players with him. They have not forgotten what they were left with when they travelled to Ford Field for the Quick Lane Bowl against Western Michigan and were blown out by 28 points and outgained by 272 total yards. While the Broncos would normally be the revenge prey, Colorado St. has taken their place here. Nevada last lost three straight games and it has not been pretty with the three losses coming by 69 points combined with the last two coming on the road at Iowa and Air Force so the return home comes at a perfect time as does its bye week. Quarterback Nate Cox returned after not playing against Iowa and while he did not put up big numbers against the Flacons, the whole offense was shut down but that will not be the case here. The Norvell move was a questionable one as it was considered a lateral move and it clearly has not started well. Losses against Michigan and Washington St. were expected but home losses against Middle Tennessee St. and Sacramento St. of the FCS were not and the numbers are ugly. The Rams are dead last in the country in total offense and No. 130 in scoring offense and the defense has done nothing to keep it close as they are ranked No. 103 and No. 126 in those categories respectively on the defensive side. Colorado St. is also coming off a bye week with is beneficial to try and regroup and hope the time off helped quarterback Clay Millen who is questionable after leaving the last game. While not very good, he is their best option and a dinged up version on the field is better than nothing but still not prime. 10* (308) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. It has been a strange season for Indianapolis through four games. The Colts outgained Houston by 218 total yards yet the game ended up being a tie and they followed that up with a 24-0 loss in Jacksonville as they were outplayed throughout and it was the eighth straight road loss to the Jaguars. They got into the win column against Kansas City despite losing the yardage battle 259-203 and then last week, Indianapolis lost to Tennessee by a touchdown despite outgaining the Titans 365-243. The common trait in the four games was turnover differential as the Colts are currently -6 in turnover margin which is tied with second worst in the league and anything close to even would likely have Indianapolis sitting at 3-1 or 2-2 at the very least. The win over Kansas City was considered a must win and the football gods granted that and coming off another defeat, they are in the same spot with another must win game and at the very least, they are getting a favorable line. While Matt Ryan has been inconsistent and Jonathan Taylor has yet to break loose to keep the offense well down the list, the defense is keeping them competitive as they are ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 14 in scoring defense. Denver is also coming off a loss to fall to 2-2 as the offense continues to stumble along as last week was a great opportunity in a great matchup but the Broncos managed just 299 total yards and 12 first downs. They also suffered a big loss as running back Javonte Williams was lost for the season with a torn ACL and now the running game has to count on Melvin Gordon who has lost four fumbles already and has been the worst over the last four years. Like the Colts, the defense kept things close the first three weeks but last week against Las Vegas, they allowed 385 yards and 25 first downs so the Colts can build off that. Through the early part of the season, the Broncos look like they have the coaching disadvantage here as Nathanial Hackett still has not called a good game and being in the spotlight once again is not ideal. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa last game. this situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our AAC Game of the Month. This game between SMU and UCF has moved a second time as the game had originally been pushed back from Saturday to Sunday but was moved back three more days with the schedule allowing it to do so with both teams having bye weeks in Week 6. This is a big disadvantage for SMU which has had to change travel plans numerous times during the week and while their offense has been keeping things competitive, the defense has struggled the last two games to prevent the wins. The offensive gameplan should be fairly straightforward for the Knights and that is no establish the run to open up the passing game and they should not divert from this if there is not early success. SMU is hit or miss with the rushing defense as it is ranked No. 105 in the country, allowing 184.8 ypg and has been outrushed by all three FBS opponents. UCF has the personnel with the passing game although it has not been put fully on display yet because the running game has been so good as the Knights are ranked No. 3 in the nation with 274.5 ypg. But that passing game can have its coming out party here as the Mustangs allowed 510 yards passing on 75.5 percent completions, 9.6 ypa and five touchdowns against Maryland and TCU. The Knights defense has been outstanding as they are No. 26 in the country overall and No. 8 in points allowed with just 13.5 ppg and they have not played slouches as Florida Atlantic and Louisville are both ranked in the top 60 in total offense and while this will be the best offense they have seen, it is also the best defense the Mustangs have encountered. This line was -3.5 last week when the game was still scheduled to be played on Saturday and has not moved much and there is now value because of the travel aspect as it has disrupted the Mustangs not only in their itinerary but also the practice and preparation has been thrown all off course. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (422) UCF Knights

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Rams have won two straight games following a season opening loss against the Bills and can take sole possession of first place in the NFC West at 3-1 including an all-important 2-0 division record with both coming on the road. Los Angeles has an offense that has yet to show much as it is ranked No. 26 overall including No. 30 in rushing offense and this does not seem to be the ideal matchup to get the offense rolling but while the 49ers and strong on defense across the board, they have not played a team with a semblance of an offense. The Rams defense has gotten better over the last three games after getting lit up by the Bills in that opener. This is the last time the Rams leave home in October as they have three straight home games along with a bye week so this victory could set the stage for a mini run that could space them out in the division prior to the second half of the season. San Francisco lost a tough one last week in Denver and the offense has managed 10 points in two of its first three games. Jimmy Garoppolo remains erratic at quarterback and while he faced a tough defense last week, the Rams are not far off and he did struggle against a much worse Seahawks defense. Part of the issue against the Broncos was the 49ers running game that was non-existent after two big games to open the season and the loss of Elijah Mitchell is a big one and while Jeff Mitchell was ok last week, nearly half of his 75 yards came on a 37-yard run so he averaged just 3.4 rpc on his other 11 carries. They will be out for revenge from the NFC Championship last season but that is not an angle to accept based on this being an early season divisional matchup for both teams. San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last twelve games as a divisional home favorite. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last five seasons including 2-0 yesterday (Tennessee and New England). 10* (279) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Josh McDaniels head coaching experiment is nearing a 0-2 start after he did not last two years in Denver and is now off to a 0-3 start in Las Vegas. The Raiders tried a late comeback last week only to fall short in Tennessee after a missed two-point conversion and it is safe to say their playoff hopes are already gone. Since 1980, only six teams have made the playoffs following a 0-3 start and that is out of 182 teams to start the season with that futility. Las Vegas has been close as each game has come down to the final ticks and while that is good experience to have, coming out on the wrong end each time is mentally tough and while this is a must win game, doing so against this defense will be a problem. 0-3 home favorites are just 8-20 ATS over the last 35 seasons. The Las Vegas defense has holes all over the place and was lit up by Ryan Tannehill last week as it is now ranked No. 26 in passing defense and now faces arguably the best quarterback it has seen. Denver is 2-1 despite an offense that has failed to surpass 16 points on offense but the situations have hurt those numbers. A pair of fumbles at the one-yard line against Seattle did them in and they faced one of the top defensive teams in the league last week but found a way at the end thanks to the quarterback. As mentioned last week, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 22 in QBR as he is completing just over than 59 percent of his passes but now three games in and facing a horrible defense, this can finally be his breakout game with the Broncos. Denver has relied on its defense to stay above .500 as the Broncos are ranked No. 3 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense and while they have faced some poor offenses, the Raiders have been nothing special with a bad offensive line and while Derek Carr has been sacked only seven times, he has been under constant pressure and the Broncos bring in a top ten pressure rank. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Patriots fell to 1-2 on the season following a home loss against the Ravens despite outgaining Baltimore by 83 yards as turnovers were the difference with New England having four costly ones. That has been the problem in keeping the scoring down with the quarterback being the biggest detriment but things could be different here. Mac Jones will be out for the Patriots but at this point, going with Brian Hoyer is not necessarily a downgrade with his veteran presence as Jones is coming off a no-touchdown, three-interception game as his passer rating has plummeted to 76.2 which is ahead of only Justin Field among qualified quarterbacks. Yet, the line has gone up four points after it was announced he will be out and he is not worth four points unless there is a severe backup downgrade which is not the case here. New England is ranked No. 10 in both total offense and total defense which is rare for a losing team to possess and while we expect Hoyer to be just fine, the defense will play a big role here against an offense that has not clicked yet. The Packers have bounced back from their opening week loss against the Vikings but beating the Bears was nothing special and while taking out Tampa Bay may look good, the Buccaneers are far from full strength on offense so the last two weeks have inflated their defensive rankings. Aaron Rodgers is third in the league in completion percentage but has not been able to get a ton of production with a lot of check downs as his yards per attempt average is way down the list and he has only four touchdown passes. Offensively, they are No. 13 overall but just No. 27 in scoring and limiting Green Bay to field goals is of importance in this matchup with the big point spread in what should be a closer than expected game. a big weakness of the Packers defense has been against the run and we will see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to take pressure of Hoyer and they can succeed. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) New England Patriots

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC South Game of the Month. Indianapolis got over the hump following a pair of embarrassments against Houston and Jacksonville and while we were on the Colts last week, it was a fortunate victory as it was more of a Chiefs loss than a Colts win. The offense remains stagnate as the Colts are averaging only 13.3 ppg which is dead last in the NFL and after putting up 517 total yards against the Texans, they have put up only 477 total yards combined in their last two games. Matt Ryan is coming off his best game with a 105.9 passer rating but the offense still stalled and he still does not look comfortable and his overall rating of 77.2 is third lowest in the NFL, ahead of only Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Defensively, Indianapolis has been solid and last week could have gotten out of hand but Kansas City had four drives inside the Colts 40-yard line and came away with just three total points. Tennessee is also coming off its first win of the season as it defeated Las Vegas which was a much needed bounce back from that blowout loss against the Bills. The Titans won by only two points but were in control throughout but let up in the second half and were a Raiders missed two-point conversion away from a likely overtime game. Tennessee scored touchdowns on its firth three possessions of the game and can certainly build on that in this divisional game as they are getting value this week based on the results of last week and not what actually transpired as those results could have been a lot different. The Titans have been below average on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 26 in total offense and total defense with most of that due to the Bills loss but the line has moved in our favor despite 75 percent of early tickets being on Tennessee giving us a solid reverse line move. We saw this last week on the other side as the majority of the money came in on the Chiefs yet the line came down with sharp Colts action taking more priority. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (253) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Detroit is off to a 1-2 start with both losses being close and it blew a big chance last week against the Vikings as the Lions allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by four points. In the first game against the Eagles, Detroit lost by just three points but was dominated throughout as it was a late charge in garbage time that got the game close. While they take a step down in competition here, they are now in some unfamiliar territory looking for a result that has been rare as they go from underdogs in the first three games to a significant favorite this week and the Lions have won only two times by more than a touchdown in their last 31 games. The offense has led the way but Detroit is down players on Sunday as it two top playmakers and banged up from last week with D'Andre Swift ruled out and Amon-Ra St. Brown very questionable and these are two big hits on the No. 3 ranked offense in the league. This team is horrible defensively as they are ranked No. 29 in total defense and No. 32 in scoring defense and while the Seattle offense has been in slow motion, this is a good matchup for the Seahawks. Seattle played well last week against Atlanta but was unable to make a stop when needed and penalties and a crucial sack killed its last chance on offense yet it still outgained the Falcons by 34 yards. The Seahawks have struggled in the running game this season as they have been outrushed in all three games but finally get a positive matchup here with Swift on the sidelines while facing a Detroit defense that is ranked No. 27 against the rush and this will be a big dynamic for this game. Detroit is a blitz-heavy defense and that could bite the Lions here as Geno Smith is a veteran that can pick up the blitz and work through it as he is 22-25 for 204 yards and one touchdown when facing that pressure. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (261) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Oregon trailed 34-22 with just 3:49 left against Washington St. last week but the Cougars gave it away and the Ducks capped the comeback with a 27-yard interception return for a touchdown to take a two-score lead with a minute remaining. It was a fortunate win for the Ducks which have now won three straight games since getting crushed in their opener against Georgia but this is now a tough spot against what we consider an undervalued opponent. The Ducks offense has been rolling since that game against the Bulldogs and they are currently No. 18 in total offense and No. 26 in scoring offense with good balance and they should be able to move the ball again this week but it is the other side that is the concern. Defensively, they have not been very good, currently sitting No. 79 in total defense and No. 94 in scoring defense despite a game against Eastern Washington where it allowed only 187 yards of offense and 14 points. Stanford opened the season with an easy win against Colgate but the schedule amped up quickly with back-to-back games against USC and Washington, the two best teams in the Pac 12 that are ranked No. 6 and No. 15 respectively. The Cardinal lost both games by double-digits but held their own, getting outgained by only 85 ypg, and now they are getting a bigger number than last week which is based on the scoreboard. The running game will be of the utmost importance here, not only to keep some balance within the offense but to keep the Ducks offense off the field. Stanford has a two-headed running back combo in E.J. Smith and Casey Filkins that have combined for 403 yards on 72 carries (5.6 ypc) and quarterback Tanner McKee had a solid game against the Huskies last week but a -3 turnover differential proved to be pivotal. Revenge is in play for Oregon following a loss to Stanford on the road last season in overtime and that was the last time the Cardinal have covered a game as they are 0-10 ATS over their last 10 games going back to last season and the value now is too big as that futile streak finally comes to an end. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Tulsa returns home following a battle at Mississippi where it ended up losing 35-27 as it played through adversity and a tough environment so easily cover and put a scare into the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane came back from a 21-point deficit to make it a one-possession game as they shut out the Rebels in the second half and had three different opportunities to try and tie the game but failed each time. The adversity that came into play was not the fact it was playing a team from the SEC, and a very good one, but that the offense did its part with a backup quarterback after starter Davis Brin was injured and Braylon Braxton took over and did a fine job in first real time playing experience. Brin is day-to-day but with Braxton getting the reps with the first team in practice this week, it will be fine either way. The other loss this season came against Wyoming in the season opener in overtime despite outgaining the Cowboys by 122 total yards so this team could be 3-1 with an outside shot at 4-0 had they gotten a late break last week. Cincinnati is coming off a win over Indiana by 21 points but outgained the Hoosiers by just 394-348 as turnovers hurt Indiana which included a fumble recovery for a touchdown by the Bearcats. They have now won three games in a row by an average of 31.7 ppg and they are now gaining votes in the latest AP Top 25 poll but this is a team that is still hard to get sold on, especially laying big lumber on the road especially against a competent opponent. Wins over Miami Ohio and Kennesaw St. were impressive blowouts but against much weaker opposition and one quick line observation shows that the Bearcats were favored by 16.5 points against Indiana at home last week which puts them under a two-touchdown favorite on a neutral field and that is roughly the same number here based on their road chalk and Tulsa is a higher ranked team than Indiana across most power ratings. This is a quality team no doubt but after blowing away most every team last season, Cincinnati is going to be involved in more competitive games this year and this is one of those instances. 10* (160) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Which UTEP team shows up here? The one that narrowly defeated a bad New Mexico St. team and lost by 17 points to an equally bad New Mexico team or the one that just defeated Boise St. by 17 points as a 16.5-point underdog? Typically, we go with the latter based on recent form being more important than what happened prior to that but in this case, it was a monumental home win for the Miners and now hitting the road against a team they have no interest in spells letdown. It was monumental based on the fact it was the first time UTEP won as a double-digit home underdog in over a decade. The Miners came into the Boise St. game 1-3 that also included blowout losses against North Texas and Oklahoma and now they are favored on the road and by more than what they were favored by at New Mexico and that is the recency bias rearing its ugly head and we will take advantage with a Charlotte team that is back to full strength. We played against the 49ers last week and they held their own for a half against South Carolina but they imploded with turnovers and mistakes in the second half which led to the 56-20 defeat. Starting quarterback Chris Reynolds was solid in the season opener against Florida Atlantic but was injured and he missed the next two games before returning against Georgia St. where he went 31-43 for 401 yards with five touchdowns and an interception. He expectedly struggled against South Carolina but now the schedule is on his side as this is his first time playing at home and against a defense that has not faced a decent offense the last three games and yes that includes Boise St. which is ranked No. 122 in the country in total offense. Defensively, Charlotte has been one of the worst teams in the country as it is ranked No. 127 or worse in total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and scoring defense but now faces an offense that has scored more than 20 points only once and has reached only 400 total yards just once as well. Charlotte is in a great situational spot here and is definitely the potential live dog back home. 10* (210) Charlotte 49ers

This is a play on the UL-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. South Alabama came a few seconds away from a major upset at UCLA and instead of folding in a letdown spot, the Jaguars responded with a strong effort defensively against Louisiana Tech in a 38-14 win. The Jaguars are one of nine teams still perfect against the spread this season and at four games, that is the magic number we go against with the public going to be lining up on their side based on the spread record and recent results. After putting up over 500 total yards of offense in its first two games, South Alabama has failed to reach 400 yards of offense in its last two games and could struggle once again. While the scheduling situation is in the favor of South Alabama, the overreaction of this line is too much to look past Louisiana here especially with the line already having risen by a field goal since opening. The Cajuns easily won their first two games of the season at home but they have gone on the road the last two weeks and lost both games outright despite being heavily favored in both. The loss against rival UL-Monroe was an especially tough one and after those two games, we will see a focused bunch this week in their return home. Consistency on offense has been the issue as the quarterback situation is still in limbo after the first month of the season. Coming into the season, we noted in our preview that there will be a battle between Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge and seeing that both have different styles, both could see decent time on the field and that has been the case with both players seeing action in all four games. Balance will be key however as Lafayette will have to get the running game going as it currently sits No. 112 in the country in rushing offense with the inexperienced offensive line now four games in. Lafayette was a 12-point road favorite last season on the road, which means there is a three-touchdown adjustment almost to the calendar year and the Cajuns have thrived in this spot as they have been home underdogs three times over the last five-plus seasons and have won all of those outright including a 28-point thrashing of Appalachian St. last season. 10* (156) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Kent St. returns home to open MAC play as it played three of its four nonconference games on the road at Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and held its own. The offense could not do much in those games as expected but was a point and a half away from covering all three of those. Now being battle tested, the Golden Flashes face a team they can devour as the offense can come back to life like it did against Long Island and while Ohio is clearly a better team than that, laying 30 points less against the Bobcats certainly helps. Getting a true read on the offense and defense is hard in a spot like this considering the elite opposition they have faced, the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country thus far, but it does good going forward. If this sounds familiar, it is. Last season after a 1-3 nonconference start, the losses against Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, the Golden Flashes righted the ship, going 6-2 in the conference and went to the MAC Championship. Quarterback Collin Schlee is finding his footing and the one-two punch of Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams is potent after the two combined for 2,017 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2021. Ohio took out Florida Atlantic in the season opener as it barely held off a late charge from the Owls and that defensive effort was a sign of things to come. The Bobcats then had a pair of tough road games at Penn St. and Iowa St. and the defense was lit up for 572 yards and 463 yards respectively which was going to be a given but last week was a total debacle as they hosted Fordham and gave up 52 points and 640 yards of offense and basically had to rally the entire second half to pull out the victory. Yes, Fordham of the FCS. The Bobcats are ranked No. 130 in total defense and No. 127 in scoring defense so it will be up to the offense to try and keep pace and we do not see that happening on the road as giving up 33 points to Oklahoma and 39 points to Georgia is a win by the Kent St. defense so matter how you look at it. Last season, the Bobcats finished No. 88 in total offense and No. 105 in scoring offense and are on pace for more of the same. 10* (204) Kent St. Golden Flashes

This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our Pac 12 Game of the Month. UCLA is off to 4-0 start following a Pac 12 opening win over Colorado this past Saturday and are back home to face its toughest test of the season and the line is telling us just that. There is not a whole lot of confidence in the Bruins, especially following a one-point win over South Alabama at home two weeks ago but this is a talented team and that scare against the Jaguars is just what this team needed. Against Colorado, UCLA won the yardage battle 515-309 including a 249-51 edge in rushing yards and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson had another strong game, going 19-23 for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns and on the season, he is completing 74.8 percent of his passes while tossing eight touchdowns and only one interception and overall, he is the second highest rated quarterback on the conference, right behind his opponent on Friday. Head coach Chip Kelly made two excellent points heading into this week as he expressed that the conditioning of this team is outstanding as the Bruins have outscored opponents 78-21 in the second half including two shutouts. Also, he noted an edge because of the NFL experience of his coaches which gives them a preparation edge when playing on a short week. Washington is also off to a 4-0 start after another blowout win as it took out Stanford 40-22 and with the ease of the victories, the Huskies are catching some early CFP buzz, mostly due to the impressive win over Michigan St. But, that win has lost a lot of luster after the Spartans were blown out at home against Minnesota this past Saturday so while still a quality win by the Huskies, it is far from what it looked like two weeks ago. Like UCLA, the strength of schedule has not been great and this is their first venture on the road after playing the first four games at home. While Washington is ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 22 in total defense, the Bruins are not far behind as they are ranked No. 12 in total offense and No. 20 in total defense and the scheduling is in their favor more than this being the first Huskies road game as this is the first UCLA game being played later than 2:00 local time so the atmosphere will be the best all season. Here, we play against road favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (112) UCLA Bruins

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Dolphins are coming off a big home win over Buffalo in a game they probably should not have won and have taken over first place in the AFC East after their perfect 3-0 start. The upset victory already put Miami in a bad situation but adding to that is hitting the road on a short week after playing a game where the heat index of over 100 degrees was a huge factor and that is something that can affect the players going into this game. The Dolphins were outgained by 285 total yards as the offense managed only 212 yards and while that was against what is considered one of the best defenses in the league, Buffalo was banged up on that side of the ball with the heat taking its toll on others that made it through. This comes after the wild win in Baltimore the previous week where Miami came back from a 21-point fourth quarter deficit and a divisional home win over New England to open the season. We have already seen this number move in the Dolphins favor with early money hitting the Bengals side and will likely continue to do so. Cincinnati finally got into the win column as it defeated the Jets by 15 points following an overtime loss against Pittsburgh and a loss against Dallas and its backup quarterback. The Bengals were crushed by turnovers and sacks in those first two games and they kept those in check against New York as they gave it away only once while surrendering just two sacks. They get a break again here as the Dolphins have an average pass rush where they have accumulated only six sacks through the first three games and the wear and tear from the Sunday heat is not going to help. Joe Burrow is coming off his best game thanks to the offensive line that kept him mostly upright and the Dolphins defense comes in ranked No. 31 in total yards and No. 31 in passing yards so he should continue his ascent back. On the other side, Cincinnati has played well defensively, albeit against some poor offensive units, but are ranked No. 9 in total defense despite being put into some tough field position situations from the offense. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 86-36 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (102) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Giants have escaped the first two weeks of the season. New York won at Tennessee after going for and making a two-point conversion after a touchdown with a minute remaining and then took the game following a missed field goal from the Titans and last week against the Panthers, the Giants made a late game-winning 56-yard field goal, one of four field goals on the day as the offense continues to stall. New York is ranked No. 23 in total offense and No. 31 in passing offense and while it is a small sample size, this is what we expected. This line has flipped which is no surprise based on the Prescott injury. The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games following consecutive wins, failing to cover all eight of those, and speaking of consecutive, they have covered only one time over their last night games after consecutive losses to the opponents so no double-revenge factor here. While the Cowboys offense is without Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush played a solid game at quarterback in relief as he went 19-31 for 235 yards and a touchdown and it is an edge that he has been in the system for a few years and he responded last season as well in his lone start against Minnesota in a primetime road game as he was 24-40 for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The defense has been great thus far as Dallas is top ten in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense through two games. This is a swing game for the Cowboys as they are no longer the favorite to win the NFC East and falling two games behind the Eagles in the division is not ideal after only three games. Dallas is 11-3 ATS over its last 14 conference games while coving eight of its last nine games on the road. Here, we play against home favorites outscored by opponents by four or more ppg last season, versus division opponents. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (489) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Denver escaped with a win against the Texans last week as it won 16-9 following a season opening loss at Seattle and with the two unexpected results, the Broncos come in as home underdogs. A lot of this can be attributed to head coach Nathaniel Hackett who has made some questionable calls and is already considered a questionable hire but he should settle in once he gets more familiar with his personnel. To be fair, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 16 in QBR as he is completing fewer than 59 percent of his passes but he can be given a hall pass here being involved in a brand new system and now in his third game, he should only get better even though he will be facing the best defense he has seen through three games. The Broncos defense has been strong since a slow start against Seattle in the opener as they have not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters. We can see Denver improving game-by-game going forward and can show what is has right here. The 49ers lost quarterback Trey Lance for the season but having the best backup in the league helps as Jimmy Garoppolo came in and had a decent game, going 13-21 for 154 yards and a touchdown but the offense was not great overall with just 373 total yards. Garoppolo is definitely an upgrade here based on his experience and his 37-18 record as a starter in the NFL but as mentioned, he will be facing a tough defense here and easily the best one the 49ers have faced in the early part of the season. Similar to Denver, San Francisco has played no one so it is hard to get a measure on this team especially playing its first game in horrible weather but we do know this is a good roster but not in a good spot here with the Broncos playing their second primetime game and first one at home. This is definitely an overreaction line from last week as the line has flipped from Denver being favored at home, which it should be, to the 49ers now being favored based on the lookahead line. 10* (488) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC Game of the Month. The Falcons have looked better than expected through the first two game as they lost a tough one at home against the Saints and fell short in the comeback against the Rams last week. This would normally be a tough travel situation for Atlanta playing out west in back-to-back weeks but the Falcons have practiced in Seattle all week instead of making another round trip to the west coast and that is a big edge. The Falcons have a big edge in this matchup in the running game as they are ranked No. 7 offensively and No. 15 defensively and going up against bad rushing units on both sides. Marcus Mariota has done a decent job in his first season in Atlanta as he is ranked No. 11 in QBR at 59.4 and his completion percentage of 62.7 percent should see a big increase here against a Seattle defense that is without its best player in safety Jamal Adams who is gone for the season. And he has done this without tight end Kyle Pitts who has only four catches which is surprising with Mariota typically targeting tight ends in check down spots. This is only the second time that the Seahawks have been favored with Geno Smith at quarterback with the first coming against Jacksonville last season and while the Falcons are not considered a very good team, the Seattle offense has really only had one good quarter on offense through the first two games. The only scoring for the Seahawks last week came from an 86-yard blocked field goal return by Mike Jackson as the offense stalled with a poor game from Smith and no running game to back him up. The Seahawks have been outgained 806-469 in their first two games and they are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing at only 56 ypg. The defense has been ok but not enough to carry the anemic offense as the Seahawks are ranked No. 24 in total defense and passing defense and No. 25 in rushing defense and while the scoring defense is ranked No. 15, that can be attributed to the two Denver fumbles near the goal line that resulted in zero points. This is not a good team at any level. 10* (483) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. No one in the public wants to bet on a team that was shutout in its previous game but that is exactly what we are going against here. The Colts were blanked 24-0 against Jacksonville which was shockingly their eight straight loss to the Jaguars on the road. That dropped them to 0-1-1 following a tie against the Texans in Week One and to come away without a victory against the two worst teams in the division is a problem. It was a tale of two different games as Indianapolis racked up 517 yards against Houston and that total offensive output went down by nearly 300 yards against the Jaguars as Matt Ryan was terrible by going 16-30 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions but he is now playing in his first home game. the situation could not be much worse for the Colts as 0-2 teams struggle to make the postseason and with the third game against a Super Bowl contender, it may look bleak but a close game is all we need with this number. The majority of the money has come in on the Chiefs yet the line has come down with sharp action taking more priority so we are getting a solid reverse line move and the public could push this number back up closer to game time. The Chiefs have looked every bit the Super Bowl contender as they destroyed Arizona and then took out the Chargers are home last Thursday night but are now in a tough spot going back on the road against a desperate team. There is not much bad to say about Kansas City as the offense has been just fine without Tyreke Hill but the defense did struggle last week as it allowed over 400 yards and was bailed out by a pick six from 99 yards that caused a 14-point swing and ended up being the difference but still failed to cover. The Chiefs may have a lookahead as they have a big game at Tampa Bay next week. NFL home underdogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 occurrences. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that was a good offensive team from last season averaging 24 or more. This situation is 46-23 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (472) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets are coming off a miracle win over the Browns and the reason it can be considered a miracle is that they were a Cleveland kneel down away from losing 23-14 but Nick Chubb elected to take the touchdown allowing enough time for a touchdown drive-onsides kick recovery-touchdown drive finish for New York. The Jets were getting dominated up to that point as they had been outgained in the fourth quarter 136-8 going into those final two drives. Joe Flacco looked like the Joe Flacco that once ruled the powerful Ravens offense but we cannot see him putting together another effort like last week. But wait. He has produced two straight 300+ yard games passing so maybe New York is on to something here as opposed to starting Mike White but it took Flacco 103 pass attempts to get to those numbers and his 6.0 yards per attempt average is tied for No. 28 in the league and he happens to be tied with his opponent but more on that later. If the Jets had lost like they should have, this line would be a lot higher. Cincinnati has fallen into the Super Bowl hangover scenario as it has lost its first two games against teams that did not start the same quarterback last season. That is not ideal and while teams have had a hard time getting into the playoffs after a 0-2, this is the ideal matchup to right the ship. After a five-turnover and seven-sack game against the Steelers in Week One, Joe Burrow was sacked six times against Dallas as the offensive line, which made offseason improvements, has not looked good but the first two games were against good pass rushing defenses and Burrow will not be facing big pressure for the first time. The Jets have only three sacks and five pressures this season per Pro Football Reference so we should see Burrow go off for a big game finally. Cincinnati has moved from -6 to -4.5 based on the results from last week after being -7 last week at Dallas and while the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott and a few other key starters, the Jets are not nearly a field goal better than the current Dallas team so there is solid value here. 10* (465) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. South Carolina is done with its toughest back-to-back set of games this season after facing Arkansas and Georgia the last two weeks, although a season-ending back-to-back against Tennessee and Clemson ranks up there too, and it remains home following a 48-7 loss to the Bulldogs. With a game against South Carolina St. on deck, there is no lookahead and they want to right the ship here and should have no problem doing so. South Carolina has faced three teams that like to and can run the ball with success and all of those teams took advantage as they averaged 236 ypg on 46.3 carries (5.1 ypc) but now it gets a break. Charlotte has run the ball a decent amount considering it has played from behind in the majority of its games and there has been no success as the 49ers have averaged 97.8 ypg on 28.5 carries (3.4 ypc). Sure, it can be argued they are facing a poor rushing defense but a look at the strength of schedule will tell a different story with the Gamecocks having faced the No. 6 ranked schedule and the 49ers going against the No. 84 ranked slate. Charlotte picked up its first win of the season after a 0-3 start as it defeated Georgia St. in a game it never should have won. The 49ers scored with under a minute remaining to seal the victory after the Panthers took the lead in their possession right before that. They did have their best offensive performance of the season with 501 total yards but the defense allowed 602 total yards so coming away with a win despite getting outgained by over 100 yards is very fortunate. Charlotte has been outgained in all four games by at least 100 yards and by an average of 178.8 ypg and we cannot see it keeping up with a Power Five team, similar to the game against Maryland where it lost 56-21 and was outgained 619-388. The 49ers were able to pass all over Georgia St. last week for 401 yards but do not expect anything close to that here. An added bonus is that this game as originally scheduled for 12 ET but was moved to 7:30 ET and a rowdy night crowd is just what the Gamecocks need. Here, we play against road underdogs getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 62-21 ATS (74.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (318) South Carolina Gamecocks

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Tulane is coming off a huge upset at Kansas St. last week and is off to a 3-0 start where it also defeated a pair of cupcakes in Massachusetts and Alcorn St. The Tulane defense ruled in the second half as it shut out the Wildcats, forcing four punts and stopping Kansas St. on fourth down three times. The Green Wave had two scoring drives of 53 and 52 yards after two of those fourth down stops to score the final 10 points. Both teams had 336 total yards, Tulane had an 18-15 first down edge and both punted seven times as third down conversions were hard to come by as Tulane was 1-12 while Kansas St. was 2-15. While the defense was impressive, they faced a Wildcats offense that has their shortcomings and while allowing a total of 10 points in the first two games is certainly impressive, the opposition had a lot to do with that. The offense struggled last week and faces an underrated defense this week that kept Miami Fla. in check for most of that game. Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games coming off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. Southern Mississippi opened the season with a pair of losses against Liberty in four overtimes and Miami Fla. but rebounded last week with a 64-10 win over Northwestern St. as it outgained the Demons 588-234 and while it came against a team from the FCS, it was a needed confidence boost heading into its last nonconference game of the season. The Golden Eagles bring back 16 starters and has the No. 7 ranked returning production in the country so this is a very deep team that is getting a huge number in this spot. The defense from last season was not great as they finished No. 80 in points allowed but that was a bit skewed as the offense had 31 turnovers, the most in the nation, that led to the defense being pinned leading to scores on short fields which upped the points allowed and falsely reduced the length of scoring drives and this is a unit loaded with talent at all three levels. On offense, the Golden Eagles exploded last week and ball control will be key here with Frank Gore, Jr., who is averaging 5.9 ypc, being a pivotal piece. Southern Mississippi is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (409) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. James Madison came into the 2022 season with a few unknowns, namely how would it handle the jump into the FBS? The Dukes came over from a very successful run in the FCS ranks following a 12-2 record last season including a 7-1 record in the CAA to win their third straight conference championship. No. 3 seed James Madison rolled over SE Louisiana and Montana in the first two rounds of the FCS playoffs before succumbing to No. 2 seed North Dakota St., the eventual National Champion by six points. It has been so far, so good for James Madison as it has rolled over its two opponents Middle Tennessee St. and Norfolk St. by a combined score of 107-14. The Dukes take a step up in class and will be playing on the road for the first time but this team is loaded and it could not be catching a better spot for their first ever Sun Belt Conference game. Not only has the host gone through the emotions of a full season in just three games but James Madison is coming off a bye week which was an added bonus prior to kicking off conference action. Appalachian St. opened the season with a crushing loss against North Carolina as a missed two-point conversion (twice) prevented overtime. The Mountaineers then went to Texas A&M and defeated the Aggies as close to three-touchdown underdogs and then there was last week. The Mountaineers took a fourth quarter, three-point lead but Troy retook the lead and then took a safety in its own end zone to keep a two-point lead but Appalachian St. tossed a 53-yard Hail Mary as time expired to win the game. We played against them last week to get the cover and will do so again here in what is the ultimate letdown spot. They have played good enough to win all three games for sure and now they face the unknown which is another advantage for the road team that has something to prove. Appalachian St. is ranked No. 38 in total offense and No. 46 in scoring offense and faces the top ranked total defense in the country albeit against a much softer schedule but do not be surprised to see the fireworks going the other way this week for the Mountaineers that are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games as a single-digit favorite. 10* (357) James Madison Dukes

This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our MAC Game of the Month. Eastern Michigan is coming off a major upset at Arizona St. last Saturday and the whole week it has heard about how good it is and there was certainly celebration taking place throughout. We are basing this play partly because of the line and going against what the public will perceive as a very short price based on last week therefore we are going opposite as there is more to Eastern Michigan than last week. The Eagles opened the season against Eastern Kentucky from the FCS and snuck out an eight-point win despite getting outgained by 97 total yards as they benefitted from five turnovers. They then went to Louisiana and got thumped by the Cajuns by 28 points before last week and it is safe to say that Arizona St. had plenty of issues going into that game considering how fast Herm Edwards was fired after the loss and now reports coming out about information being leaked to opponents. While it was a good win over a Power Five team, there is more to it than that. Eastern Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Buffalo is off to a 0-3 start following a 12-point loss against Coastal Carolina last week but the game was not decided until late and the Bulls could have been excused for coming in flat following a loss against Holy Cross the previous week on a Hail Mary to end the game. Buffalo opened the season with an expected loss against Maryland although it was a competitive game through the first half until the Terrapins scored on a 70-yard touchdown to open the second half and the Bulls did a good job against a very strong Maryland offense. The season is far from lost at 0-3 with this being the conference opener and they could not be catching their opponent in a better spot. Overall, the numbers are pretty similar with the offenses sitting below average and the defenses very below average with both teams playing a similar strength of schedule. The line has already risen two points and would not be surprised to see it get higher. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 58-23 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (355) Buffalo Bulls

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Clemson is off to a 3-0 start but there is something skeptical about it. They were three games the Tigers never should have been threatened in, which on the scoreboard they were not, as they were favored by at least 24 points in all three games and won them all by at least 23 points. Last week, they were up just 13-6 at the break and they broke it open in the third quarter with three consecutive touchdowns which came after a pair of interceptions and a turnover on downs that accumulated only 152 yards and then scored its last touchdown on a 12-yard drive. Not exactly going up and down the field. Against Furman, Clemson had only 376 yards of offense and was outgained by the Paladins, and in the opener against Georgia Tech, it had just 378 yards on offense and needed a pair of blocked punts to seal the big win. This offense is reminiscent of last season when it started slow and relied on the defense which it has done by allowing only 10, 12 and 20 points but here comes the first test. Wake Forest is also 3-0 and the positive news is that quarterback Sam Hartman only missed one game after taking a leave for a non-football related issue and has had two games to prepare for this one. He was not great last week against Liberty as the Demon Deacons won by only one point which was a game they did not show up for with a possible lookahead being the reason. They went ahead 20-5 and should have pulled away but instead allowed 18 unanswered points and eventually won the game by denying a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Wake Forest lost this meeting last season by 21 points as it was getting 3.5 points on the road and now it is getting a touchdown at home which does not add up considering the game was played in late November when the Tigers were playing their best and now the Demon Deacons catch them early where there seem to be struggles once again. Hartman did throw for over 300 yards in that game. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (340) Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 10* (340) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. Nevada is 2-2 to open the season and very could be 0-4. After winning the turnover battle 5-0 in its opener against New Mexico St. where it won 23-12, Nevada again took advantage with a 4-0 takeaway edge and it scored 21 points off those turnovers in a 38-14 win over Texas St. The 2-0 start was short-lived as the Wolf Pack have dropped their last two games, losing to Incarnate Word 55-41 as a favorite and then losing 27-0 at Iowa last week. One constant similarity from the first four games is that Nevada was outgained in all four of those as turnovers were the difference, being +9 in the two wins and just +1 in the two losses and the Wolf Pack cannot be expected to win the turnover battle against a disciplined Air Force team that is even in turnover margin through three games. Nevada is a team that was the most experienced in the country heading into last season with 22 returning starters to now being the least experienced coming into 2022 with only six starters back and that is definitely showing. They should not stand a chance against this Falcons running game. Air Force is coming off an embarrassing effort against Wyoming last week as the Falcons entered the game ranked No. 1 in rushing offense with 508.5 ypg but were held to just 171 yards on 40 carries (4.3 ypc). Overall, the Cowboys outgained Air Force 342-272 yet the Falcons had a chance to win but Wyoming came up big as it went 75 yards for the game-winning score. This is not the game to try and stand in the way of the Falcons as they will be out for a big rebound and will not be letting up no matter how big the lead may be as they need to regain the confidence and get back to .500 in the conference. Head coach Troy Calhoun has been here 15 years and has been in this situation many times and has succeeded as over the last 17 games, his Falcons are 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and playing a team with a .500 or worse winning percentage. Here, we played against teams averaging 4.2 or fewer yards per play on offense after gaining 2.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game. this situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (310) Air Force Falcons