Sports Picks & Predictions

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are just 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games overall and have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  In their 33 games this season, they have just 7 wins by more than 7 points.  Getting 7.5 points with the Los Angeles Lakers is tremendous value on Christmas Day.

The Lakers are without Anthony Davis but they are healthy everywhere else.  They come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games, so it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.  The Mavericks are without two key pieces in Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith.

I also think it's a bad spot for the Mavericks, who will be returning home following a four-game road trip and there will be a ton of distractions to deal with at home especially with it being Christmas.  It will also be the 10th game in 17 days for the Mavericks, so they will be playing on tired legs.

Dallas is 0-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Dallas is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Washington Wizards are 1-11 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they are in the toughest spot any NBA team has been in all season tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in the altitude in Utah last night.  They will also be playing their 5th road game in 7 days tonight.

The Wizards will have nothing left in the tank for the Kings, who will test their tired legs by playing at the 5th-fasted pace in the NBA this season.  It will also be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Sacramento, so they are fresh and ready to go.  The Kings are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall and one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  Six of those seven wins have come by 9 points or more, which would cover this 8.5-point spread.

The Wizards are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight Friday games.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Sacramento is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing to the Thunder and Nuggets to open this road trip, which followed up a 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS run.  Look for them to get back to how they were playing before dropping those two games tonight.

Of course, it helps that the Suns are missing three of their top five scores.  The Suns are without Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without these three.

The Suns are really struggling amidst all these injuries as they are going through their worst stretch of the season right now.  They are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off an upset home loss to the Washington Wizards as 7-point favorites.  That's a Wizards team that is 1-11 in their last 12 games overall with their lone victory against Phoenix.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Phoenix) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent that is off a road loss are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Memphis is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Grizzlies are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title and for good reason with their star power and depth.  Well, they were injured for most of the season, but now we are seeing what they are capable of when healthy, especially when having Kawhi Leonard on the court.

The Clippers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have won five of their last six.  The only game they lost was in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation when they sat Leonard.  Now the Clippers will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days and have all hands on deck tonight.  They should not be underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against a very soft schedule.  The only decent teams they played were the Kings and Raptors, and they needed OT to beat the Raptors and OT to beat the Lakers.  The other wins came against the Hornets, Warriors without their stars and Pistons.  This is a huge step up in class for the 76ers tonight.

The Clippers are 9-1 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Portland Trail Blazers will be out for revenge from a 121-123 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday.  Now they get to face the Thunder here two days later and don't have to wait long to get their revenge.  I expect them to blow the Thunder out of the building tonight.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in the first half of the season are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 58-22 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.

Plays home road favorites (Portland) - revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-27 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  I always look to back teams that lost the first meeting in these quick rematch situations because they are the more motivated team.  Plus, they haven't adjusted the spread as Portland is once again a 4-point favorite just as it was on Monday.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards tonight.  They have lost 10 consecutive games but were competitive in all 10 as none of them came by more than 13 points, and six game by single-digits.  And they didn't have their best player in Bradley Beal for the majority of them.  Well, Beal is back healthy now and the Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Phoenix Suns, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But this is a terrible spot for the Suns as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 17 days.

The Suns are getting way too much respect tonight for blowing out the Lakers last night, who were without both James and Davis and a few others.  Well, the Suns cannot be this big of a favorite given all their injury concerns right now.  The Suns are without Cam Johnson, and Devin Booker (groin) and Cameron Payne (foot) are both questionable.

Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 game vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and has a way of playing to its level of competition.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Washington) - following three or more consecutive road losses in December games are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Utah Jazz are 0-6 SU in their last six road games yet they are favored on the road here against the Detroit Pistons.  They just lost by 26 at Milwaukee and by 23 at Cleveland and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Jazz to say the least.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have lost five of their last six games coming in but were competitive in all six.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points and have played a brutal schedule too against Memphis (twice), Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, LA Lakers, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Charlotte.  This is actually a step down in class for them from what they have been facing.

Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  The Jazz are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Detroit is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games following a home loss.  Utah is 14-36-3 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pistons won 125-116 in Utah earlier this season to improve to 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without four of their best players tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Josh Giddey (14.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.5 APG), Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Bazley (5.9 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of being competitive with the Portland Trail Blazers as a result.

The Blazers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Damian Lillard is back healthy and they are humming on offense scoring 116 or more points in six of those eight games.

The Thunder did pull off the upset as 11-point home dogs to the Grizzlies last time out as the Grizzlies took them lightly, and JA Morant was ejected in the first half.  That result is keeping this spread lower than it should be.  A lot of times teams can have one good performance in their first game without their stars, but then it progressively gets worse.  I don't expect the Blazers to take them lightly after seeing that Memphis result.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 52.20 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Portland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall but eight of their last nine wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, and I think this one goes down to the wire against the Detroit Pistons, too.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost four of their last five games against a very tough schedule with road losses to the Pelicans by 6 and the Grizzlies by 11 as well as home losses to the Lakers by 7 and Kings by 9.  They also went on the road and upset the Hornets.  They are now catching too many points at home today to the Nets.

Brooklyn is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with five upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs and beat the Celtics outright as 13.5-point dogs.

Yes, the Celtics will now be out for revenge today, but they shouldn't be 10.5-point favorites over the Magic.  They can get their revenge and still not cover this inflated number.  Plus, Jayson Tatum scored 31 points in that first meeting on Friday and they still lost by 8.  Well, now the Celtics won't have Tatum today as he'll be out for personal reasons.  There's no way the Celtics should be double-digit favorites over the Magic without Tatum and with how well the Magic are playing right now.

The Celtics are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA and it has shown of late as they are 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 at Golden State, by 20 at the Clippers and by 8 at home to the Magic.  Their lone win was a miracle as they erased a 13-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Lakers by 4 in OT.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 41-point win over Milwaukee, a 25-point win over Atlanta and a 21-point win over Oklahoma City, which is tonight's opponent.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out for a few weeks now and they haven't really missed him due to all their depth.  This is a terrible spot for the Thunder playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.

The Thunder come in on a four-game losing streak and are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) remains out, and Bazley (5.9 PPG) and Dort (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) are both questionable.  The Thunder lost 110-112 to the short-handed Timberwolves last night who were playing without Towns, Russell and Gobert.  

That game went down to the wire so their starters played big minutes, meaning they will be even more fatigued than normal in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing in zero rest.  Memphis is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Memphis on Thursday.  They were coming off a 128-111 home win over the Warriors and I think they simply had a letdown after beating the defending champs.

But now the Bucks are back home where they are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS this season outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per game.  And they are expected to get star PG Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.3 RPG) back from illness after sitting out the last two games.

The Utah Jazz are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games with five losses by 5 points or more.  They are getting too much respect after two consecutive home wins over the Pelicans.  But now they are back on the road here and should be much more than 5-point road underdogs to the Bucks.  

It's time to 'buy low' on Milwaukee off a blowout loss and 'sell high' on Utah after two consecutive upset home wins.  The Bucks will come back motivated and will have 100% focus for this one, which isn't good news for the Jazz.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

15* Warriors/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are at full strength in the health department right now with the exception of Tyrese Maxey.  They are playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 11 over the Lakers, by 18 over the Hornets and by 20 over the Kings.

Now the 76ers come in on two days' rest and highly motivated to face the defending champion Warriors.  But the Warriors have just been going through the motions all season, and they are going to regret that with the injuries that are starting to pile up for them.

Indeed, the Warriors will be without their top two scorers in Steph Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG).  Both Klay Thompson (18.7 PPG) and Draymond Green (8.1 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.0 RPG) are questionable to play tonight as well.  Either way, the Warriors stand no chance of being competitive without Curry and Wiggins.

The Warriors are 2-13 SU & 3-12 ATS on the road this season.  The 76ers are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  The 76ers are 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +13.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, and beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs.

This is a good spot for the Magic playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics returning home from a six-game road trip that concluded in Los Angeles.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.  The Celtics haven't been home since December 2nd.

The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Boston) - after failing to cover two of their last three ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall despite being a 6.5-point dog or higher in five games.  They pulled the upset as 11.5-point road dogs to Phoenix and upset the Suns again as 6.5-point home dogs.  They upset the 76ers as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10-point home dogs.  So it's not like they are beating bad teams, they are beating the best teams in the NBA has to offer.

Now the Rockets are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Miami Heat, who are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-108 win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Heat, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA.  Don't be surprised if they rest several players tonight given the spot.

Miami is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title.  But injuries have held them back thus far.  Now we are seeing a glimpse of how good this team can be with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back from injury for a few games now.

The Clippers just blasted the Celtics 113-93 at home on Wednesday.  The Celtics have the best record in the NBA, so that was no small feat.  And now I expect them to blast the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

The Timberwolves are coming off two consecutive road losses at Portland by 6 and at Portland by 21 in the rematch.  They will now be playing their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (20.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Jalen McDaniels (10.8 PPG) and could be without De'Angelo Russell (16.6 PPG, 6.3 APG), who is questionable with a knee injury.

Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +3

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule with their lone loss coming by 7 as 10-point dogs to Milwaukee.  They upset the Clippers by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, upset the Raptors by 4 as 8-point dogs and upset the Raptors by 12 as 7-point dogs.

The Magic now come in on two days' rest and will upset the short-handed Atlanta Hawks tonight.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over the Bulls in OT.  The Hawks are 5-9 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this season.

The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and could be without Trae Young (27.1 PPG, 9.6 APG), who is questionable tonight with a nagging back injury.  They shouldn't be favored without Murray and Collins alone, but they definitely shouldn't be favored with Young hampered.

Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Nobody is playing better than the New Orleans Pelicans right now, and Zion Williamson is showing his importance to this team.  They have kept winning despite being without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for stretches because of Williamson and their underrated role players.

The Pelicans are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Memphis and Boston.  They have won seven consecutive games with four of those coming by double-digits and will be highly motivated to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Utah Jazz have hit the skids after a fast start to the season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have played a role in their struggles and they remain without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Utah ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency while New Orleans ranks 3rd, and that will be the difference in this game tonight.

Utah is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games following a road loss.  Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent that's off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have a massive home-court advantage.  They are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Warriors tonight, and you know it's going to be a sell out and an even bigger home-court advantage than normal for the Bucks tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road going 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS while getting outscored by 8.0 points per game.  They are without second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) and I don't give them much of a chance to even be competitive with the Bucks tonight without him.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bucks won by 19 and 39 points in their last two home meetings with the Warriors.  Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for a few games now.  The chemistry should get better with each passing game, and the Clippers should start playing like the team that was favored to win the NBA Finals coming into the season sooner rather than later.

Now they host a Boston Celtics team in a terrible spot.  The Celtics wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing to them in the NBA Finals and came up short Saturday, losing 107-123.  I think there will be a 'hangover' effect from that defeat.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Plus, it's just time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.  They were favored on the road against the Warriors, and now they're even bigger favorites on the road against the Clippers.  Plus, they will be without Al Horford tonight and were already without Robert Williams, so they are going to get killed on the boards with how small they have to go.

The Clippers are equipped better than anyone to guard Brown and Tatum with George, Leonard and Batum.  This is a great matchup for them as a result and I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma City Thunder off two consecutive road losses to Memphis and Cleveland.  They had won their previous three games with two of them coming on the road in upset fashion at Minnesota and at Atlanta.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  In those 22 games, they only won three times by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight as well.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks not once losing by double-digits.  In fact, they pulled the outright upset as double-digit dogs in each of their last two meetings with Dallas.

The Thunder are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Dallas is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Dallas is 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +6.5

The Sacramento Kings are finally a legit team this year but oddsmakers are failing to catch up to it.  The Kings are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at Milwaukee..  The spot is good for the Kings as they come in on two days' rest.

The Bucks have let each of the last four teams hang around and it was against four bad teams, too.  They only beat the Knicks by 6, lost outright to the Lakers at home, only beat the Hornets by 9 and only beat the Magic by 7.  Both the Magic and Hornets are depleted due to injury right now, too.  It will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Bucks tonight as well.

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Milwaukee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two consecutive road wins.  The Kings are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Lakers +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They continue to be lacking the respect they deserve as 5.5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is banged up and hasn't been playing great for a few weeks now.  They are just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Lakers with the way they are playing right now.  Cleveland is 14-39-4 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now.  Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important.  I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off.  The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.  Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.

The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Roll with the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game.  Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season.  Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here.

Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not.  They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight.  I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks.

The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday.  But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win.  They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight.

Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA.  They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors.  They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either.

Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today.  The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis.

The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice.  They lost by 8 at Atlanta.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They are coming off a 121-134 loss in Boston on Wednesday.  Now they get their chance at revenge here just two days later again in Boston Friday.  At the very least I like their chances of staying within this 8.5-point spread and possibly pulling off the upset.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won 14 of their last 15 games overall and have won and covered five straight.  If they were going to have a letdown, this would be the spot after just beating the Heat by 13 two nights ago.

Injuries are working in Miami's favor here, too.  Jimmy Butler makes his return from a knee injury tonight, and Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are all probable for the Heat tonight.  This is as healthy as they have been in a long time, and they are one of the better teams in the East when fully healthy.

Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Boston.  The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with double-revenge against an opponent.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

20* Mavs/Pistons NBA TV No-Brainer on Detroit +8

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season a 110-140 home loss to the New York Knicks.  But they were competitive in their previous eight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games with an 8-point loss to Cleveland, a 6-point loss at Phoenix, an upset win at Utah, an upset win at Denver, an 8-point loss at Sacramento, a 7-point loss at the Lakers, a 5-point loss at the Clippers and a 4-point loss to the Raptors.

So that blowout loss to the Knicks was the aberration, not the norm.  They hadn't lost any of their previous 10 games by double-digits.  They won't be losing by double-digits to the Mavericks tonight, either.  Look for an inspired effort from the Pistons off that loss, and it's worth noting they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Mavericks off their upset 3-point home win over the Warriors last time out.  Keep in mind the Mavericks had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  In fact, the Mavericks are now just 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have just one win by double-digits in their last 18 games overall.  They aren't blowing anyone out right now.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS following a win this season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +12

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be motivated for revenge from a 113-129 loss at Denver on Monday.  Now they get their shot at revenge in Denver again here two days later, and oddsmakers hasn't adjusted for the revenge factor considering Denver was an 11.5-point favorite in the first meeting and is now a 12-point favorite in the rematch.

The Rockets were playing well coming into that game.  They had gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They only lost by 7 to Golden State as 11-point dogs, upset Atlanta by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset Oklahoma City by 13 as 2-point dogs.  They only trailed Denver by 2 at halftime, too.

I'll gladly fade the Nuggets tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat this team again.  They'll be lucky to get out of here with a win, let alone cover this 12-point spread due to their lack of motivation.  I also can't see them shooting 56.8% from the field again like they did in that first meeting and they still struggled to cover.

Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight given the terrible spot for them.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +1

The Sacramento Kings are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home during this stretch.  But they are coming off two consecutive road losses at Atlanta and at Boston, so they return home here highly motivated for a victory.  The Kings are also fully healthy and come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.

The Phoenix Suns have been fortunate to go 4-0 in their last four games overall.  All four games were at home against some of the worst teams in the NBA in the Knicks, Lakers, Pistons and Jazz.  They won their last two games over the Jazz and Pistons by a combined 7 points.

The Suns have been getting away with being without Chris Paul and Cam Johnson due to the soft schedule.  Their luck runs out tonight as they finally hit the road to face a legit team in the Kings.  It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns tonight.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after winning five or six of their last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games on the season are 50-16 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +12

The Houston Rockets are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 7 to the Warriors as 11-point dogs, upset the Hawks by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset the Thunder by 13 as 2-point dogs.

The Rockets should not be catching 12 points to the Denver Nuggets, who just have a way of playing to their level of competition.  The Nuggets are back home now after playing four of their last five games on the road.  I think this will be a sleepy spot for them, especially coming off two consecutive road wins over the Thunder (in OT) and the short-handed Clippers.

Denver is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Nuggets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The New Orleans Pelicans cannot be 6-point favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight when they are missing two of their best players.  Both CJ McCollum (18.7 PPG, 6.1 APG) and Brandon Ingram (20.8 PPG) are expected to miss this game.  Larry Nance Jr. (9.4 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Thunder have been grossly undervalued the past two seasons.  They have been the most profitable team to back because of it.  They sit at 8-12 this season but are clearly improved, and they are as healthy as they have been all season.  I like their chances of keeping this one close and likely pulling off the upset with the Pelicans missing Ingram and McCollum.

The Thunder are 57-35 ATS in their last 92 games as underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They are the much fresher team than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  It will also be their 3rd road game in 4 days.

The Cavaliers needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the lowly Detroit Pistons last night.  Garland played over 40 minutes, Mobley over 39 minutes and Mitchell over 38 minutes.  Kevin Love, Lamar Stevens and Jarrett Allen are all out tonight, so they are short-handed, which makes this spot even worse for the Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers.  Take the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season whether they have had Damian Lillard or not.  They are 11-8 SU & 13-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS without Lillard.

The Blazers have been able to be competitive without Lillard because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have upset road wins over Phoenix as 12-point dogs, Memphis as 5-point dogs, Milwaukee as 9-point dogs and New York as 4-point dogs without Lillard.

Simons and Grant combined for 82 points in a 132-129 (OT) win at New York last time out.  Now they stay in New York and head to Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight.  The Nets have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season, especially when Kyrie Irving has been healthy and in the lineup.  The Nets are 3-9 ATS with Irving in the lineup this season as he is a terrible defender and their chemistry has been awful with him.

Portland is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Brooklyn is 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 home games.  The Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after playing a game where they were called for 10-plus more fouls than their opponent.  The Nets are 8-33 ATS in their last 41 games as home favorites.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +8

The Sacramento Kings are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to go into Boston and take on the defending Eastern Conference champs to try and pull off the upset.  They may not get it done, but getting 8 points with the Kings is too much given their current form.

Boston is also playing well having won 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Five of those wins were by single-digits plus an upset 14-point loss at Chicago two games back.  They have mostly feasted on a easy schedule during this stretch and are overvalued as a result.

Boston is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games.  The Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  I've been riding them a lot during their 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight.  They will be highly motivated to extend their winning streak to eight games.

This is a young, deep Kings team so I'm not concerned with them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.  They should still be pretty fresh considering this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are expected to have all hands on deck tonight and are fully healthy.  I just think they're a better team than the Atlanta Hawks right now.

The Hawks are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at Cleveland by 12 last time out, barely beat a short-handed Toronto team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back by 2 in OT, and lost by 25 to Boston at home in their last three games coming in.

The Kings are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Sacramento is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest.  Atlanta is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Kings are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall to start playing up to their potential.  That includes blowout wins over the Nets by 13 and the Spurs by 31.  Now the Lakers are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 9 days and will give the Suns a run for their money tonight.

The Suns are struggling of late due to injuries as they are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games overall.  They are without both Chris Paul (9.5 PPG, 9.4 APG) and Cameron Johnson (13.0 PPG).  That's why I'm not concerned the Lakers will be without LeBron because it has been factored into the line too much, especially with this move to 10 since I released this play.

LeBron has been out the past four games and the Lakers played well in all four.  They are forming some chemistry without him, and it will pay dividends down the road.  I would make the Lakers a 20* play at +10, so adjust your bet size accordingly.

Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games when playing against a team that wins between 25% to 40% of their games.  Monte Williams is 6-22 ATS in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more as a head coach.  The Suns won't be fully focused playing the Lakers without LeBron, either.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  I've been riding them a lot during their 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS run over their last 11 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight.  They want to extend their winning streak to seven games, and they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Memphis Grizzlies have injury problems right now that have them just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their lone win coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home.  They lost by 10 at Washington, by 11 at New Orleans and by 12 at Brooklyn.

While the Kings are fully healthy right now, which is a big reason they are playing so well, the Grizzlies are far from it.  They're without the most underrated player in the NBA in Desmond Bane (24.7 PPG).  JA Morant (28.6 PPG) is questionable tonight, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.0 PPG) is making his way back from injury and on a minutes restriction.

The Kings are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -8

After a slow start to the season due to chemistry issues with Rudy Gobert, the Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to put it together.  They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and would be 3-0 ATS against the opening line.  They won at Cleveland by 5, at Orlando by 18 and at Philadelphia by 3 as closing 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Timberwolves are back home and rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are starting to wear down losing three consecutive games including an 87-113 blowout loss in Cleveland last night.

It's going to be another blowout loss for the Heat tonight.  Making matters worse is they have been hit hard by injuries, so they are short-handed, which makes fatigue even more of a factor.  The Heat will be without both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro tonight, plus both Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent are questionable.  The Timberwolves will run them out of the gym and put tempo to use as they rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season.

The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +7

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-114 loss at Indiana on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later in Indiana again.  They go from 6.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 7-point dogs in the second meeting, so the books aren't even adjusting for the revenge factor.

Simply put, you're paying a tax to back the Pacers right now after they have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But this is the perfect spot for a letdown for this young team, and I expect the Magic to win outright.  Getting 7 points is just an added bonus.

The Magic have quietly been very competitive going 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Bulls on the road as 8.5-point dogs, upset the Suns by 17 as 7-point dogs, upset the Mavericks by 7 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Warriors as 9.5-point dogs during this stretch.  So they have proven they can play with anyone.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Indiana.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-102 upset home win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  Joel Embiid played 36 minutes last night and six players played at least 30 minutes.  They also lost Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) to an ankle injury in that game and he is doubtful to play tonight.  Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG) sat out last night and is questionable as well.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are finally playing up to their potential too following up a 129-124 upset win in Cleveland with a dominant 126-108 win at Orlando.  I expect them to win and cover their third consecutive game tonight given the terrible spot for the 76ers and the injuries.  It's definitely a letdown spot for Philadelphia after a win over the Bucks, too.

The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5

I love the spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They come in on two days' rest and will be pissed off following a 25-point loss to the Celtics.  That followed up a 15-point win at Milwaukee in their previous game to flash their potential.  The also want revenge from a 30-point loss at Toronto in their first meeting this season.

But while the Hawks are fully healthy right now, the Raptors are missing four of their top seven scorers.  They will be without Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG), Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG), Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG) and Precious Achiuwa (8.8 PPG).  They also could be without Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable.  The just don't have the horses to be competitive in this game without these guys.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-31 (66.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

20* Nets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings have rebounded from an 0-4 start to go 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall to get to .500 on the season.  They would love that feeling of a winning record, and I think they get it tonight with a win and cover at home against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Kings are getting zero respect for this run they are one, which continues to make them an undervalued commodity and I keep cashing in.  I backed them in each of their last three games in a 127-120 upset win as 4-point dogs over the Cavaliers, a 120-114 win at the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites and a 122-115 upset win as 4-point dogs to Golden State.

The Nets are getting respect for their 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run without Kyrie Irving.  No question their chemistry has been better without him, but they've also taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Now is the time to fade them after a 103-116 loss to the Lakers without LeBron James.  Their run just came an end, and this team simply doesn't have the talent or depth to be very good on a nightly basis.  It's one of my favorite teams to fade in the NBA.  It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days after spending two days in Los Angeles, which is a distraction.

The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Sacramento) 0 after winning five or six of its last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games are 49-15 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 40-49% of their games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted way too much in Dallas' favor for the Los Angeles Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks come in on two days' rest.  The spot isn't worth this many points as these are two pretty evenly-matched teams without the spot.  I'll gladly take the 7.5 points with the Clippers tonight.

The Mavericks shouldn't be favored this heavily over anyone right now.  They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five wins during this stretch all coming by 9 points or fewer, with four wins by 5 points or fewer.  They also lost outright to the Wizards as 6-point favorites, to the Magic as 8.5-point favorites and to the Thunder as 10.5-point favorites.  This team just can't be trusted right now.

The spot isn't even bad for the Clippers.  They will only be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here.  They made easy work in a 122-106 win at Houston last night, so it's a short travel to Dallas.  Nobody even played 30 minutes last night for the Clippers, so they should still be very fresh.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA with Mann, Powell, Batum and Covington all coming off the bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most teams.

The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dangerous team with the Big 4 of Ingram (21.4 PPG), Williamson (23.5 PPG), McCollum (17.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) and Valanciunas (13.8 PG, 10.1 RPG) have been healthy this season.  All four are expected to play tonight, and I like the Pelicans laying this short number at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.

While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both expected to play tonight, both are hampered by injuries.  Jackson Jr. will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut.  The big loss for the Grizzlies is Desmond Bane, who is arguably the most underrated player in the entire NBA.  He averages 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.  He'll be out until December.  The Grizzlies lost outright at Washington by 10 in their first and only game without Bane this season.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.2 points per game and 46.9% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 115-122 road loss to the Kings last night.  Curry, Green, Thompson and Wiggins all played at least 32 minutes last night.  The Warriors are getting no help from their bench, another reason they are struggling this season.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.

Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in rested and ready to go on two days' rest after last playing on Friday in a 111-93 home victory over the Bucks.  The Spurs have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season as they are 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They show up every night, and they'll certainly show up against the defending champs tonight with a lot more energy than the Warriors with this rest advantage.

San Antonio is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with the Warriors with the two losses coming by 6 and 4 points.  The road team has won five consecutive meetings outright.  San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on two days' rest.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming 116-109 at home over the lowly Houston Rockets as 10-point favorites.  They lost by 14 at Chicago, by 19 at Oklahoma City and by 18 at Indiana.

A big reason for the Raptors' struggles is that they are now without three of their top four scorers in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), Fred VanVleet (18.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG) tonight.  They cannot be 5.5-point road favorites over the Pistons tonight missing these three guys.

The Raptors are a tired team to boot playing their 6th game in 9 days, so it hurts them even more being without these guys.  The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing only their 5th game in 10 days here.  They were competitive in their loss to the Celtics losing by 9 even without Cade Cunningham.  Jaden Ivey is quickly blossoming into a star scoring 26 points in the loss.

Detroit is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games following a home loss.  The Pistons are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 games following three or more consecutive losses.  Amazingly, Detroit is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Toronto with six outright wins as underdogs.  They clearly have this team figured out, and it will be even easier for them with the Raptors missing three of their top four scorers.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

The Sacramento Kings have quietly gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses came by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  They have upset the Cavaliers and Heat during this stretch as well.

Now the Kings have double-revenge here after losing to the Warriors by 5 and 3 points in two road games this season.  Now the Kings get the Warriors at home this time around, and I expect them to win outright, let alone staying within 4.5 points here.

The Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  They certainly won't be motivated to beat the Kings for a third time already this season.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.0 points per game and 46.5% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Plays against road favorites (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, in Sunday games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They have lost three of their last four against a brutal schedule of Boston, Toronto (twice) and New Orleans.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as a result, and I like their chances considering they are well-rested after having the LAST THREE DAYS OFF!

The Nuggets don't have the same luxury.  They will be playing their 4th consecutive road games and their 4th road game in 7 days.  They started to show some fatigue in their 112-131 loss at Boston on Friday after barely squeaking by against the Pacers by 3 and Spurs by 6 in their two prior road games.  Denver will be without Bones Hyland, who averages 14.0 PPG in just 20.7 minutes per game this season and is a key cog off their bench.

The Bulls won both meetings with the Nuggets last season.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been grossly undervalued to start the season.  They are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS this season and got back way better pieces in the Mitchell and Gobert trades than they got credit for.  Markkanen (22.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), Sexton (13.9 PG), Olynyk (12.1 PPG), Beasley (11.8 PPG), Vanderbilt (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.9 PPG) are meshing well with holdovers Clarkson (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Conley (11.4 PPG, 8.2 APG).

The Philadelphia 76ers have been grossly overvalued this season.  They are 6-7 SU & 6-7 ATS and now they are without one of their best players in James Harden until December.  I backed the 76ers last night in a great spot as they were out for revenge on the Hawks and got that revenge.  But now I expect them to be flat tonight, while the Jazz will be motivated after an upset loss to the Wizards last night.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the spot is better for the Jazz.  They are a deeper team and will handle this spot better because of it.  They also had two days off prior to playing the Wizards last night.  Meanwhile, the 76ers have zero depth without Harden now and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Embiid played 40 minutes, Harris 38 and Maxey 36 last night.  The Jazz only had one player play more than 30 minutes last night.

Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -3

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 95-104 road loss at Atlanta on Thursday in which they shot just 38.6% from the floor.  This is now a 'buy low' spot on them as they are favored by only 3 points at home in the rematch here two days later.

It's also time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are a terrible road team and did most of their damage at home with four of their last five games in Atlanta.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 112-128 loss in Boston on Wednesday where they shot 41.6% while the Celtics shot 53.4%.  Now they get their shot at revenge just three days later here Saturday and are catching 9.5 points at home, which gives us a ton of wiggle room.

It's a bad spot for both teams, but a better one for the Pistons because of the revenge plus they will be the fresher team.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Pistons are the deeper team and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics after winning five consecutive games coming in.  It would not shock me one bit to see them rest some starters after Jayson Tatum played over 37 minutes, Jaylen Brown over 34 minutes, Al Horford over 34 minutes and Grant Williams over 32 minutes last night in the big win over Denver.

Boston is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Celtics are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  Detroit is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  I love the spot for them now coming in on two days' rest and playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Toronto Raptors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They started to show their fatigue last night losing 113-132 on the road to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are still without their best player in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), and they aren't a very deep team as it is.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana should be favored by more today given how much the spot favors them.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy now and playing up to their potential.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Golden State and by 3 points at Miami.  They also upset Miami and Cleveland during this stretch.

Look for the Kings to roll the Los Angeles Lakers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA even with a healthy LeBron James.  They Lakers are 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS this season.  Now they will be without James tonight.  They have no chance of even keeping this competitive as seven of their nine losses have come by 9 points or more. 

The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +1

Teams tend to rally when they lose a star player.  That has been the case with the Brooklyn Nets as they are playing their best basketball of the season without Kyrie Irving.  And it looks to be the case with the Philadelphia 76ers as well after finding out they'll be without James Harden until December.

The 76ers promptly upset the Phoenix Suns 100-88 last time out at home.  They are rested and ready to go tonight as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  They had two days off prior to the Phoenix game on Monday, and now have had two days off heading into this showdown with Atlanta.

That's a huge advantage for the 76ers when you consider the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-125 home loss to the Utah Jazz last night.  That game will have taken a lot out of them as it was an absolute shootout played at a high pace.  They won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero rest.  Take the 76ers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

I love betting against teams that just had an extending winning streak snapped.  There always seems to be a hangover effect and they just aren't as motivated as they were to try and keep the winning streak alive.  That will be the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are in a massive hangover spot here after having their 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS streak come to an end after blowing a late 8-point lead to the Clippers in a 117-119 loss on Monday.  That was a double-header in Los Angeles after beating the Lakers the night before.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Kings now tonight after their winning streak was snapped.

Now they will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days against a Sacramento Kings team on the improve.  The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  I think they're showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home against the Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cavaliers are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS loss.

Plays on any team (Sacramento) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team that is off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 101-126 loss in Denver on Saturday in which the Nuggets shot 60.9% including 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range.  Their shooting of late is unsustainable.

It's also a 'buy low' spot on the Spurs after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They have been battling through injuries during this stretch but are much healthier for this game, which is going to make a big difference for them.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - that is allowing a 50% shooting percentage or higher on the season, averaging 48 or fewer rebounds per game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.  San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 10 or more points.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5

The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time.  That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have been absolutely dominant otherwise.

Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense.  The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th.  The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades.  But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces.  The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for.

That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs.  Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG).

The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers.  Four of those five wins came down to the wire.  The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder.  

So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well.  They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS.  There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success.  But there is no discount tonight.

You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.  Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now.

The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested.  They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks.  They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice.

Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks.  Take the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season.  They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together.  That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result.

They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot.  The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100.  

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight.  They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.  If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks.  They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can.  Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4

The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength.  Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season.  When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender.

Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days.  They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night.  The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA.  They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them.  The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting.

The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3

The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton.  They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it.  Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4.  Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

It has gotten worse before it's going to get better.  The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move.  Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things.  And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury.  I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him.

The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn.  The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.  Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset road wins over the Nets and Wizards while also covering in a 7-point loss in a rematch with Brooklyn.  Now they have had the last three days off to get their chemistry even better heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat.

Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 9th game in 15 days, which is about as difficult a spot as you will see in the NBA.  The Heat are already struggling going just 4-5 SU despite playing six of their first nine games at home.  They are just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road.

This tough schedule to start the season has the Heat already battling injuries.  They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a knee injury, so they could be without their two best players.  The Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and on three days' rest.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Take the Pacers Friday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the single-most underrated team in the NBA.  They did it last season by being the best covering team in the league despite a poor record.  And they're doing it again this season, opening 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS while consistently catching too many points.

The Thunder were competitive in their three losses falling by 7 as 11-point dogs at Minnesota, by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver and by 10 as 9.5-point home dogs to Minnesota.  They have won four straight since with three outright upsets over the Clippers by 14 as 5.5-point dogs, the Clippers by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Mavericks by 6 as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat the Magic by 8 as 3.5-point favorites.

As I stated, the Thunder only lost by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver.  Now they'll be out for revenge on the Nuggets and are catching 7 points at home in the rematch.  That's not a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage, especially with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Plus they are expected to get Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) back after missing the past three games.

The Nuggets are trying to find chemistry getting both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury this season.  It has been a shaky start with the Nuggets going 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS including a 21-point loss at Utah, a 25-point loss at Portland and an 11-point loss to the Lakers as they are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games.  Murray is only averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 41.5% from the field so he has been a shell of his former self.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nuggets with losses by 5, 6 and 4 points along with two outright upsets by 12 and 14 points.  Oklahoma City is 35-14-3 ATS in its last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +6

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 93-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point dogs.  Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, only a 3-point adjustment for home-court advantage and simply not enough for the revenge spot.

The Clippers have been one of the most disappointing, overrated teams in the NBA up to this point.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by exactly 2 points each over the Kings and Rockets.  They lost three games by 14 points or more and were upset by the Thunder twice.

It's not getting any better for the Clippers tonight as they will be without their two best defenders in Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington.  They just cannot form any chemistry right now with all of these guys in and out of the lineup.  They cannot be trusted as a 6-point road favorite over the Rockets with the way they've been playing to start the season.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons after a 2-6 start, and to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks after a 6-0 start.  We saw this come to fruition last time out when the Pistons gave the Bucks all they wanted in 108-110 road loss as 13-point dogs.

The Pistons were even playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-114 upset home win over the Warriors as 7.5-point dogs the night prior to playing Milwaukee.  That makes sense the line adjustment in the bad spot for the Pistons.  But now this line is 11.5 and both teams are on equal rest.

I'll gladly take the 11.5 points with the Pistons in this revenge spot.  It's a letdown spot for the Bucks, who are feeling fat and happy about being undefeated right now and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 3 days.  The Bucks are still without Middleton, Connaughton and Ingles and cannot be this big of a favorite against almost anyone without them.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a winning team from last season off four or more consecutive wins are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road teams (Detroit) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee is 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games following three or more consecutive home wins.  The Pistons are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7

The Sacramento Kings have been undervalued since their 0-4 start against quality competition in which they were competitive in three of the four games.  They came back and upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and then won and covered at Charlotte.

I backed the Kings in both of those games, and I'm back on them again tonight in what is a very favorable spot for them.  While the Kings had yesterday off, the Heat just beat the defending champion Warriors 116-109 last night.

Not only is this now a letdown spot for the Heat, but they are also a very tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight as this is as tough a spot as you will ever see in the NBA.  That's why I'm not concerned the Kings will be without De'Aron Fox, plus they came back from 15 points down at halftime to beat the Hornets by 7 without Fox in the 2nd half.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings were undefeated in the preseason under first-year head coach Mike Brown, one of the best hires of the offseason.  But they got off to an 0-4 start to the regular season with three close losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

The Kings finally got on the board with a win in a 119-113 home win over Miami last time out to get their swagger back.  And now they are fresh and ready to go as they head to Charlotte to take on the worst opponent they have faced yet this season.  While the Kings will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.  

It's a terrible spot for the Hornets, who just upset the defending champion Warriors as 10-point underdogs.  It's now a letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  Making matters worse is the Hornets will be without their two starting guards in La'Melo Ball and Terry Rozier, while the Kings are fully healthy.

The Kings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Charlotte) - a good offensive team scoring 118 or more points per game, in the first half of the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are both off to 4-2 starts this season.  The difference is the Timberwolves are a real contender in the West, while the Spurs are a pretender.  This surprising start will be forgotten pretty quickly when the Spurs come back down to reality.

San Antonio has caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and taken advantage.  The Timberwolves will not be sleeping on them.  They were one of the teams that were upset by the Spurs 106-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites.  But they came back and pounded the Spurs 134-122 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch two days later.  And now they won't be taking them lightly, plus we are getting a better value on them as only 5.5-point favorites in this 3rd meeting when the Spurs won't have much home-court advantage.

Also, San Antonio won't have its second-best player in Devin Vassell, who averages 19.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season.  They could also be without Josh Richardson, who is averaging 11.7 points per game and making 45.2% from 3-point range.  He is questionable for this one.  Either way, the Timberwolves will win this game going away.

Minnesota owns San Antonio.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs with all seven victories coming by 6 points or more.  Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Sunday games.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season.  They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason.  They just haven't been able to put it all together yet.  It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight.  They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring.  Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range.  Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game.

It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall.  They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors.  The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment.  They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch.  They will want it more tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall.  Three of those losses came on the road.  They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat.  They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season.  They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit.  They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well.

Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.  Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive.  They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday.

That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason.  They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses.  They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late.  They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs.

This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies.  They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them.  They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites.  And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs.  

The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -9

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-115 upset loss as 8.5-point home favorites to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday.  Now they get to face the Spurs at home just two days later and are 9-point favorites in the rematch.  

The books haven't adjusted enough for the revenge factor, plus the injury to San Antonio's best player in Devin Vassell, who is doubtful for this one.  Vassell is averaging 19.8 points, 5.0 rebound and 4.5 assists per game this season.  He had 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in that win over the Timberwolves while making five 3-pointers.  The Spurs have no chance of keeping this game competitive without him.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spurs, who are coming off three straight upset road wins over the Pacers, 76ers and Timberwolves.  I think those teams took them lightly after all the offseason media attention they got about tanking, plus the 27-point loss to Charlotte in the opener.  Minnesota will not be taking them lightly tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Spurs.  They won all three meetings last season by 6, 10 and 25 points.  They'll get back to dominating this head-to-head series tonight, especially in revenge mode and with the Spurs missing Vassell.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

New Orleans came back with another 124-112 road win over the Hornets to cover as 7-point favorites.  Valanciunas had 30 points, Ingram 28, McCollum 21 and Williamson 16 in the win.  Now the Pelicans get to play their first home game, and fans will sell out the building in anticipation of getting to see Williamson back healthy.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere in New Orleans tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are coming off two shocking upset wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves to start the season.  Many expected the Jazz to be one of the worst teams in the NBA after trading away basically everyone but Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.  While there is more talent on this team than they got credit for to start the season, they won't be able to hang with this Pelicans team tonight on the road in this atmosphere.  Utah is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +9

This is a great spot to fade the Denver Nuggets.  They are coming off a 128-23 upset win at Golden State as 5-point underdogs last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Thunder are rested coming in on two days' rest after last being seen hanging tough with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 108-115 road loss as 10.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.  The Thunder were the best covering team in the NBA last season as they were way more competitive than most expected.  They lost a lot of close games, and if they lose this one it won't be by double-digits.

The Thunder have had the Nuggets' numbers in recent meetings.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the two losses coming by 4 and 6 points.  They also upset the Nuggets by 12 outright as 15.5-point dogs and by 14 as 6.5-point dogs.

The Thunder are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The Thunder are 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Denver is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

The Charlotte Hornets are without LaMelo Ball to start the season.  They go as he goes, especially offensively.  Points will be hard to come by for the Hornets until he returns as he averaged 20.1 points and 7.6 assists per game last season.  They are also missing Miles Bridges, who was charged with three counts of domestic violence.  He averaged 20.2 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game last season.

I do like the re-hiring of Steve Clifford, who was the head coach of the Hornets from 2013 to 2018.  He says he wants to keep the up-tempo offense, but that's going to be hard without Ball tonight.  Charlotte averaged just 98.8 points per game in the preseason.  Their 129-102 win over the Spurs in the opener was more to do with San Antonio being the worst team in the NBA than anything.  They will get exposed here in this big step up in class, while the Pelicans take a big step down in competition after facing the Nets.

New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Charlotte.  Take the Pelicans in a blowout Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to win the NBA title this season for good reason.  Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are back healthy together.  But they are loaded with depth as well by adding John Wall to go along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivaca Zubac, Norman Powell, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Terrence Mann.  No team has two bigger stars together, and no team has more depth than the Clippers.

The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs again this season.  Anthony Davis and LeBron James cannot stay healthy, and they don't have the help around them they need.  Both are already banged up.  They will be starting alongside Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and Lonnie Walker IV.

Westbrook is a terrible fit for this team because he needs the ball in his hand so much and can't make open shots.  In fact, the Lakers are probably the worst shooting team in the NBA this season.  They have no depth with Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Kendrick Nunn their top options off the bench now with key 6th man Dennis Schroder out with an injury.

The Lakers lost 123-109 to the Warriors in their opener.  They shot just 43% as a team and committed 21 turnovers.  That includes 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Teams can continue to sag into the paint and force them to try and beat them from 3, which they cannot do.

The Clippers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers.  They one-sided nature of this series continues tonight with a blowout victory by the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into the 2022-23 season due to not making the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons.  They have a great chance to end that drought as they hired Mike Brown, who was the top assistant with the Golden State Warriors and has plenty of experience.  It was probably the best hire of the offseason.

Brown has loads of talent to work with as De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray lead the way.  I know Murray will miss the opener, but I still believe the Kings have what it takes to get the job done.  No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Kings, who went 4-0 while outscoring opponents 117.3 to 89.8, or by an average of 27.5 points per game.   They added SG Kevin Huerter, and the depth is good with Malik Monk, Terence Davis, Richaun Holmes, KZ Okpala and Davion Mitchell coming off the bench.

I like Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons for the Blazers.  The problem is they don't have much help outside of those three.  That was evident last year when the Blazers went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with 11 of those losses by at least 25 points.  They are without Gary Payton II to start the season.  Josh Hart, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic are all replacement-level players who are going to be playing too many minutes with two of them starting.

The Blazers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Portland went 0-4 in the preseason against NBA teams and lost by 30 to this same Kings team.  They also lost by 33 to the Warriors and by 17 to the Jazz, who are terrible.  Chauncey Billups may just be a bust of a head coach even though he has a great reputation.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Brooklyn Nets were swept in four games by the Celtics last season and were a major disappointment.  They are getting a lot of respect to start this season, but it's unwarranted.  It's going to take some time for Ben Simmons to gel with Durant and Irving.  And there's not much depth behind those three, especially with their two key role players in Seth Curry and Joe Harris out for the season opener.

Brooklyn is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-28-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5

There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension.  I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league.  I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine.  Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana.  They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury.

Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason.  That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape.  Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape.  Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not.  

The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season.  And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well.  The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford.  They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics finally lost two games in a row for the first time in these playoffs.  I love their chances of bouncing back in Game 6 tonight and forcing a Game 7 with the resiliency we've seen from this team all playoffs.

The Celtics blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead to the Bucks in Game 5 at home and lost to fall behind 3-2.  They proceeded to win Game 6 in Milwaukee by 13 and Game 7 at home by 28.  They had their chance to close out the Heat in Game 6 at home and lost by 8.  They went on to win Game 7 in Miami.  They are battle-tested in these clutch situations.

The hardest game is the close out game for the Warriors.  The lost their first close out game at Denver by 5.  The blew their first opportunity to close out the Grizzlies in a 39-point road loss.  They also blew their first opportunity to close out the Mavericks in a 10-point road loss.  So, they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first close out game in all three series in these playoffs.  They know they have Game 7 at home if need be, so they won't be playing with the same kind of urgency the Celtics will be in Game 6.

A lot went wrong for the Celtics in Game 5, not the least of which was a favorable whistle for the Warriors at home.  I think the Celtics will get the favorable whistle at home in Game 6.  Plus, they aren't going to lose the turnover battle 18-6, and they aren't going to miss 10 free throws again.  Those were the biggest differences in the game.

Boston is 11-1 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Boston is 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics have been a very resilient bunch all season and in the playoffs.  Look for them to bounce back following a 10-point home loss in Game 4 that evened the series.  Now they are catching too many points in Game 5 on the road, where they have actually played their best basketball in these playoffs.

The Celtics are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their 13 playoff road games.  They won three out of four in Miami last series, two out of three in Milwaukee and swept the Nets on the road.  They haven't lost two games in a row the entire playoffs.  The Celtics are now 9-0 SU in their last nine games following a defeat.

Boston is 10-2 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors got away with murder in Game 2.  That's the reason they won that game as the officials simply let them play.  They won't get away with murder in Game 3 in Boston, and thus the Celtics are the better team and will fire back after getting embarrassed.

Boston is 7-0 ATS after scoring 90 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Celtics are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  They are winning by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  They have been resilient all season, especially in the playoffs.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Boston is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Golden State Warriors have been off since May 26th.  That's a full week off and sometimes rest can be a bad thing.  I think that will be the case for the Warriors, who will be rusty now after building up a bunch of momentum in beating the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks.

I think the Warriors have had an easy path to the NBA Finals.  They avoided the Suns, played two banged up teams in the Nuggets and Grizzlies, and played a Mavericks team that had no answer for Stephen Curry.  The Celtics have the answer in defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, plus guys like Jaylon Brown can switch on him when Smart is out of the game.

I think the Celtics got the perfect amount of rest they needed.  They had just three days off in between games to let both Smart and Robert Williams heal.  The Celtics have earned their way into the NBA Finals by beating Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Nets, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seed in the Miami Heat.  They won Game 7's each of the last two series and appear to be a team of destiny.  They should carry over that momentum into Game 1 today.

The Celtics are the only NBA team with a winning record against the Warriors during this dynasty run.  Boston is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Golden State.  The Celtics are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Golden State.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +9

I am a perfect 5-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3, the Celtics in Game 4 and the Celtics in Game 5.  After cashing in the Celtics the past two games, I'm going back with the Heat in Game 6 tonight.

This line has simply gotten out of control.  The Celtics go from being 5 and 6.5-point home favorites in Games 3 and 4 to whopping 9-point favorites in Game 6.  That is too big of an adjustment, and it's an overreaction from the Celtics winning the last two games in blowouts.

The Heat aren't going to only score 80 and 82 points again while shooting 31.9% and 33.3% from the field, respectively.  They will shoot it better, especially from 3-point range where they have gone a combined 15-of-79 (19%) the past two games.  This Miami team has too much pride to go home without a fight as they are a bunch of dogs.  And the injury report came back better than expected for them as they should have almost everyone available tonight.

Miami is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas PK

The Dallas Mavericks just haven't gotten anything in this series from players outside Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.  This after they shot their way into the conference finals on the backs of Doncic and their role players hitting open 3's.  They haven't hit those 3's in this series with the exception of Game 2, which they controlled throughout before falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Mavericks shot just 13-of-45 (28.9%) from 3 in Game 3 and just 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3 in Game 1.  They aren't going to continue shooting this poorly in Game 4 tonight.  Look for guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to start hitting more of their open looks in this one.  I think this is where it all comes together for the Mavericks as they show their pride for one game and avoid the sweep.

Conversely, I fully expect the Warriors to let down in Game 4 tonight knowing they all but have this series wrapped up.  We saw them let down last series against Memphis when they lost 95-134 as 4-point road favorites in Game 5 with a chance to clinch.

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Dallas is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

I love the spot for the Mavericks Sunday.  Their season is on the line as they are down 0-2.  They didn't show up in Game 1, but they fought hard in Game 2 and showed they could play with the Warriors.  Golden State was just unconscious in the 2nd half and the Mavericks went cold.

Dallas has been much better at home than on the road in the playoffs as their role players have really stepped up to help out Luka Doncic.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games while winning those five games by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Dallas is 34-13 SU at home this season as well.

The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mavericks are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.