Sports Picks & Predictions

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

Despite being just 15-27 on the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are just four games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are doing their best to finish strong prior to the All-Star Break to close the gap.

Indeed, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 12 at Sacramento, by 2 against Charlotte, by 15 over Minnesota and by 16 over Detroit.  Its last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so it is very close to being 8-0 in its last eight games overall.

Now the Pelicans get to host a tired Milwaukee Bucks team that is coming off a 98-102 loss at Houston last night.  Now the Bucks will be playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Pelicans had Friday off following their blowout home win over the Pistons on Thursday.  The rest situation clearly favors the Pelicans.

New Orleans has had Milwaukee's number in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are going to be highly motivated for a win after back-to-back road losses to Dallas (in OT) and Toronto (by 6).  They had won three straight prior to those two close losses.

The Chicago Bulls are not playing well at all right now.  They have gone 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, including a 31-point home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday.  They needed overtime to beat the 76ers for one of their two wins during this stretch, and they lost to the Hawks by 15 and Wizards by 14 as well.

The Bulls are just 8-9 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 105.2 points per game away from home.  Boston is 11-10 at home, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game and scoring 103.0 points per game at home.  The home team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.

Boston is 11-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1

With an 18-23 record on the season, the Sacramento Kings would actually be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today.  They have put themselves in this position with some excellent play over the last few weeks.

Indeed, the Kings are 6-3 in their last nine games overall with a 1-point loss to Dallas and another loss to Golden State.  They are coming off a 3-0 road trip in which they beat the Jazz, Clippers and Lakers.  This is a team that is only going to continue to get better.

While the Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back after topping the Lakers 112-93 last night, they had three days off prior to that game, so they won't be tired.  The same cannot be said for the Hawks, who will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 104-98 win in Portland last night.  The difference is that the Hawks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while this is just the 2nd game in 5 days for Sacramento.

The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Even after their poor 14-27 start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are still well within reach of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are finally playing up to their potential of late and should continue to play well at home tonight against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so they have been very close to putting together a 7-game winning streak.  They opened their 7-game home stand with a 114-99 beat down of Minnesota, and now they'll be playing their second game on this home stand.

They get to face the Detroit Pistons, who are in an awful spot tonight.  Detroit will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a high-scoring affair with the Rockets last night.  The Pistons won that game 123-114, but they were fortunate that Dwight Howard had to leave the game with an injury in the first minute of the game.

The Pelicans have owned the Pistons, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Pelicans are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with the Pistons as well.  They essentially just have to win the game with this 2-point spread, so I thing we're getting them at a great value tonight give the situation for Detroit.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -4

The Washington Wizards are starting to get healthy and will be a dangerous team going forward.  John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Nene are the core of this team, and all four are healthy now.  Look for the Wizards to make a run after a frustrating, injury-plagued first half of the season.

The Wizards have won four of their last six coming in, which includes impressive double-digit road victories over the Magic (by 16), Bulls (by 14) and Pacers (by 14).  But they are back to being undervalued after two straight home losses to the Celtics and Blazers.

The Miami Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 79-91 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That means they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days, which is a very tough spot.  They are without their top two point guards in Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, which makes matters worse.

The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Washington is 14-6 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7

After getting off to a promising 19-13 start this season, the Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to .500 at 20-20.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.

They will have no problem getting back on track against the league's worst team in the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers are 5-38 on the season, but they actually come into this game overvalued due to going 4-0 ATS in their last four games.  The Magic have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, so they come in undervalued as only 7-point favorites.

The Magic have gone 26-6 in their last 32 meetings with the 76ers, including 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings.  Orlando won 105-97 on the road as 3-point favorites in their first and only meeting this season.

Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 2-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

Despite their poor 13-27 start, the New Orleans Pelicans are within striking distance of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They certainly are looking at this upcoming 7-game home stand as a chance to get right back in it.

The Pelicans have played the third-toughest schedule in the NBA up to this point.  They have played 23 road games compared to 17 home games.  Now that they are healthy, they are playing much betting.  Each of their last four losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have won two of their last three coming in.

Now they get to take on a Timberwolves team that is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  This is also a Minnesota team that they have dominated, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with wins by 12, 22, 8, 48 and 7 points, respectively.  The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be more motivated for a victory Monday than they have been at any other point this season.  That's because they want revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they not only lost to in the NBA Finals, but also who they lost to on the road on Christmas Day in their first meeting this season.

But the Cavaliers have been a completely different team since they've gotten healthy.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the San Antonio Spurs by a final of 99-95.  That's not a bad loss at all considering the Spurs are 24-0 at home this season.

The Warriors have been leaking oil here of late and have proven to be very beatable.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have lost two of their last three games, both coming on the road to Denver (110-112) and Detroit (95-113).  Now they have to take on a well-rested Cavaliers team that has had two days off in between games.

The Cavs are 15-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game.  Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Cavs are 8-0 ATS after playing four consecutive road games over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Dallas +12

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 23-0 home record on the season.  While they may improve to 24-0, asking them to beat the Mavericks by 12-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much tonight.

The Mavericks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this year.  They are 23-18 SU & 24-17 ATS on the season.  Their starters will essentially be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after resting against the Thunder five days ago, so they will be well-rested and ready to go.

The Mavs have already proven they can hang with the Spurs on the road this season.  They only lost 83-88 as 10-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting this year.  The Spurs are in a letdown spot here, too, after beating the Cavaliers 99-95 on National TV last time out.

Dallas is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 43% shooting or less this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Mavs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics are back on track after losing six of seven games during their worst stretch of the season.  But all six losses came by 9 points or less, so they simply didn't get it done in close games.  They have put together back-to-back blowout wins over Indiana (103-94) and Phoenix (117-103) since.

Yes, the Celtics will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, but this is one of my favorite teams to back on short rest because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They'll be up against a short-handed Wizards team tonight that is also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Boston has absolutely owned Washington in two meetings this season.  It won 118-98 back on November 6 and 111-78 on November 27.  I look for more of the same from the Celtics here even though they'll be on the road this time.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 28-11 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Celtics are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a win.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday.

15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1

The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get.  The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot.  They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game.  This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.

Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings.  Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls.  As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.

The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go.  They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler.  Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight.  The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.

Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4

The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season.  This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.

I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk.  Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games.  They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.

But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about.  Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.  The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.

Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits.  So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations.  Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5.  This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest.  The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7

The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night.  They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.

The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road.  Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money.  The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor.  That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.

Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio.  It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs.  The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons.  They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS.  They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season.  They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.

The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well.  I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory.  Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.

Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons.  This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.

Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season.  They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home.  They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.

Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall.  That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat.  The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result.  They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.

The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them.  The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.

The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.

Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road.  Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are in a world of hurt right now.  They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.

The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season.  They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home.  The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home.  It's  now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.

Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home.  It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average.  In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3).  So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.

The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off.  They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.

Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami.  It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points.  The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.

Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.   Take the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.

But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road.  They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season.  They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road.  They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.

Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent.  The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.

That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin.  They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game.  On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.

The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort.  They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.

The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a 5-16 start this season.  This start has been largely due to injuries to several key players, but the Pelicans are now finally healthy.  The only player on the injury report not expected to play is Quincy Pondexter.

Look for the Pelicans to be a good bet going forward after this poor start.  They have had three days in between games having last played on Monday.  They have had time to work out their problems in practice these last three days, and I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight at home against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are not healthy, and they are off to a poor start as well.  They are just 9-11 on the season and have lost seven of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They are without two key post players in Drew Gooden and Nene, and Kris Humphries is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in Friday night home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 11.0 points per game.  The Wizards are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 13-9 start, but they've been playing their best here of late.  They are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall with one of those losses coming by 3 points at San Antonio as 8.5-point dogs.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The reason the Celtics have a great chance to end the Warriors' 23-0 start tonight is because they lock down opponents on defense.  Indeed, the Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.  Avery Bradley is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he's just the type of player that can slow down Stephen Curry.

The Warriors could be short-handed tonight against the Celtics.  They are already without Harrison Barnes, but now they may be without Klay Thompson as well.  He scored 39 points in the their 131-123 win at Indiana last time out, but rolled his ankle and has stated that he's only 70 percent healthy right now.  Thompson would be a big loss because he's shooting 51.9 percent on 3-pointers this year and averaging 25.4 points over his last five games.

Boston has average 108.0 points over the past five games and had eight players finish in double figures in Wednesday's 105-100 win over Chicago.  David Lee returned from a heel injury to score 12 points while adding six rebounds in 18 minutes.  Lee should play a big role against his former team tonight and will be extra motivated.

The Celtics played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year.  They lost 114-111 as 18-point road dogs, and 106-101 as 8.5-point home dogs.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when the total is at least 210 points over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Boston is 28-15 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is one of the rare times that the Cleveland Cavaliers are undervalued as only 3-point favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  That's because they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at home to the Wizards, in overtime to the Pelicans, and to the Heat without Lebron James.

But they rebounded with a win over the Blazers last time out, and I look for them to build off of that tonight.  I like the fact that the Cavaliers have had two days off in between games having last played on Tuesday to get ready for the Magic tonight.  They are also expected to get back starting guard Iman Shumpert from injury tonight, which will give them a boost.

The Magic, on the other hand, come into this game overvalued after having won six of their last eight games overall.  They have home wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics, as well as road wins over the T'Wolves, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch.  But now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.

Cleveland has simply owned Orlando.  The Cavs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Magic dating back to 2012.  They have won those 11 games by an average of 14.1 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as a nice-sized home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  After battling through several injuries in the early going, the Bucks are finally getting healthy and starting to play up to their potential.

The Bucks have won back-to-back home games with a 106-91 win over New York and a 90-88 win over Portland.  They had to erase a late deficit to beat the Blazers, and they will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after that win.  I also like they fact that they are really getting after it defensively.  They have held each of their last six opponents to 42.1% shooting or less.

The Los Angeles Clippers have squeaked out back-to-back wins over Orlando (103-101) and Minnesota (110-106).  Both meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less last season with Milwaukee winning 111-106 at home, its fourth win in the last six home meetings with Los Angeles.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings.  Plays against road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 12-8 start while ranking 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency.  They have obviously been great on both ends of the floor, but it's their improvement on offense that has made the difference this season.

Charlotte has won seven of its last nine games with its only losses coming to conference leaders Golden State and Cleveland.  It has protected its home court very well this season, going 9-3 in all home games.  The Hornets are scoring 105.0 points per game and allowing 97.6 at home this year.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 12-7 start to the season.  Well, they have taken advantage of a home-heavy schedule, playing 14 of their first 19 games in Miami.  They are just 2-3 on the road this season, scoring only 90.6 points per game away from home.  They have lost their last two trips to Charlotte since parting ways with Lebron James.

Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season.  They lost in overtime to New Orleans on Friday, and after playing 45 minutes in that game, Lebron James sat out a loss to Miami the next night on Saturday.

But now the Cavaliers are well-rested and ready to go having two days off in between games.  The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days overall.

The Blazers are running on fumes right now, which is not good news for them as they won't be able to match the intensity of the Cavaliers tonight.  The Blazers also aren't a very deep team as they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to do the heavy-lifting.  Lillard played 38 minutes and McCollum 36 in a 90-88 road loss to the Bucks last night.

Portland is 8-23 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Cleveland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Pacers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6

I believe the Golden State Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.  I'm just taking the points with the Indiana Pacers for some added insurance.  This is one of the best teams that the Warriors have faced all season, and one that is fully capable of pulling off the upset here.

Indiana is 12-7 on the season.  It has won six straight home games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  That includes back-to-back blowout home wins over Chicago (104-92) and Milwaukee (123-86).  Paul George is among the early MVP favorites as he's averaging 27.6 points, including a career-high 48 in Saturday's overtime loss at Utah.

But the Pacers have now had two days off since that game to prepare for the Warriors.  The Warriors, meanwhile, are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th road game on a 7-game trip, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have already survived scares at Utah (106-103) and at Toronto (112-109) on this trip, but they aren't likely to be so fortunate against the Pacers, who are playing as well as almost anyone.

Indiana is 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Golden State, including a 104-98 win last year as 4-point home dogs.  Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest, and 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +1

The Milwaukee Bucks were playing short-handed for much of the season up until the last few games.  That has led to a poor 8-13 start, but now they are getting healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They have won each of their last two home games in blowout fashion over the Nuggets (92-74) and Knicks (106-91).

Jabari Parker was injured for most of his rookie season.  He has slowly gotten healthier this season, and he made his first start Saturday against the Knicks and had season highs of 17 points and 35 minutes.  O.J. Mayo started at point guard and had 17 points and five assists with one turnover in 35 minutes.  Michael Carter-Williams came off the bench to add 20 points and five assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 9-12 this season and cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.  They had to erase a 17-point second half deficit to beat the Timberwolves on the road Saturday.  They rank last in the NBA in turnover differential (-3.3) while also ranking last in the league with 12.4 points per game off turnovers.  Those two stats right there are why the Blazers can't be trusted because they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to carry them every night.  If one of them has an off game, they don't stand much of a chance.

The Blazers are 4-7 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 6-4 at home.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally healthy and are going to be a 'play-on' team going forward.  They have opened just 5-15 SU & 7-13 ATS while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that start clearly has them undervalued right now.  They should not be home dogs to the Boston Celtics Monday.

The Pelicans showed what they were capable of when healthy last time out.  They took down Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-108 as 4.5-point home dogs on Friday night.  They have since had two days off in between games to rest and get prepared for Boston.

The Celtics are certainly an improved team, but their 11-9 SU & 11-9 ATS start has them overvalued here.  They gave the Spurs all they wanted on Saturday in a 105-108 road loss.  Now, after coming so close to beating one of the best teams in the NBA, I look at this as a hangover spot.  It will also be the Celtics' 5th straight road game and the final contest in this 5-game trip.

Antony Davis is averaging 34.3 points and 14.7 rebounds in his last three games against Boston as the Celtics simply do not have an answer for him.  Tyreke Evans recently returned from injury, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik are healthy now.  The underdog has gone 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

New Orleans is 25-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 19-8 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two years.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  They are 11-8 straight up and have won six of their last eight games overall with their only two losses coming to Cleveland and Golden State, the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last year.

Charlotte ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 103.9 points per 100 possessions.  The improvement on the offensive end with the additions of Nicolas Batum and company have made all the difference for this team.  But the Hornets still defend well as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency at 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the lowly Lakers on Sunday.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for Detroit.

The Pistons have lost each of their last three road games to Milwaukee (by 21), Oklahoma City (by 16) and Brooklyn (by 4) to fall to 4-7 on the road.  The Hornets are 8-3 at home this season.  Charlotte has won five of its last seven meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to bounce back from two straight tough road losses to the Hawks and Heat by a combined 8 points.  They should have no problem getting back in the win column in blowout fashion as they return home to face a team they have owned.

The Thunder are 22-3 straight up in their last 25 meetings with the Kings.  They are 13-0 in all meetings in Oklahoma City during this stretch with an average margin of victory of 13.0 points per game.  The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 road games while surrendering an average of 114.1 points per game.  The Thunder have won their last two home games over the Nets and Pistons by an average of 13.5 points per game.

This is a brutal spot for the Kings.  They just played in a tiring 113-120 road loss to the Houston Rockets yesterday, meaning this will be the second of a back-to-back for them.  The Kings are 0-5 in 2nd of back-to-back situations this season, losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Thunder have had two days off since their loss to the Heat Thursday.  Sacramento is 1-14 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are getting all the hype in the NBA right now due to their record-setting 21-0 start.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.  That has been evident of late as they've failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games.

They only won 106-103 at Utah as 7.5-point favorites, and 112-109 at Toronto as 7.5-point favorites last night.  So, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is a very tough spot for them.  They are laying 10.5 points on the road to the Nets when they shouldn't be.

The Nets have been covering machines, but they don't get much respect.  They have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost three of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive, but the betting public continues to fail to take notice.

In fact, the Nets have played the Warriors as tough as anyone this year.  They lost 99-107 (OT) back on November 14 as 16.5-point dogs.  They actually led that game late in regulation before Andre Iguodala hit a clutch 3-pointer to force overtime.

Playing the Warriors tough is nothing new for the Nets.  The home team is 5-0 SU & in the last five meetings, and the Nets have actually won each of their last four home games this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of their last 11 meetings.  That's a perfect 11-0 system backing Brooklyn pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are a better team than they've shown during their 7-12 start to the season.  But they have dealt with a plethora of injuries for most of the year, and they are finally healthy for the first time.  Because of this slow start, they are undervalued right now, so it's time to get on board with the Bucks in the near future now that they've returned to near full strength health-wise.

The Detroit Pistons come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers over the Rockets and Suns at home.  I like this Detroit team, but I don't believe it should be laying 6.5 points to the Bucks, who are pretty much its equals when healthy.  But the recent head-to-head history shows that the Bucks have owned the Pistons.

Indeed, the Bucks are 4-0 straight up in their last four meetings with the Pistons, winning by 21, 15, 16 and 12 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.0 points per game.  In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meeting with the Pistons.  They haven't lost to Detroit by more than 5 points in any of their last seven meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* Thunder/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder had won four straight before falling 100-106 at Atlanta last time out.  They had a rare off night shooting just 39.8% in the loss after topping 52% in three of their previous four games.  Look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They have played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point.  Against the three best teams they faced in Cleveland, Atlanta and Indiana, they lost.  Now this will be their toughest test of the season against a fully healthy OKC team that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder owned the Heat in their two meetings last year.  They won 94-86 at home as 7.5-point favorites, and 93-75 on the road as 4-point favorites.  Kevin Durant only played in one of those two games.  But Durant has returned to the lineup for the past four games, and this team is so much better with him.

Miami is 1-10 ATS versus teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game ovre the last two seasons.  OKC is 68-41 ATS in its last 109 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Thunder are 70-41 ATS in their last 111 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +10

The Denver Nuggets could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and this awful stretch has the betting public wanting to avoid them at all costs. But this is the time to buy low on the Nuggets tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Bulls.

Chicago is in a massive letdown spot here.  It is coming off a huge 92-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs last time out, and it's going to be hard for the Bulls to get up for this game against the Nuggets off such a big victory.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by exactly five points, and the Nuggets weren't very good last year.  They won by 5 at home and lost by 5 on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  I have no doubt that they can stay within double-digits of the Bulls once again.

Also, the Nuggets are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bulls.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 5 points to the Bulls once in the last 11 meetings.  That's a 10-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans return home from a tough 3-game road trip.  They had won three straight prior to falling to both the Clippers and Jazz on the road in their last two games.  I look for them to bounce back with a victory now that they are back at home, where they have won their last two over the Spurs (104-90) and Suns (122-116).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been that great on the road this season, going 4-5 overall, including 2-4 in their last six road contests.  I believe they come in overvalued here due to winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Reinforcements are finally on the way for the Pelicans.  Both Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole are expected to make their season debuts tonight.  Evans was second on the team in scoring last year at 16.6 points per game, but he also chipped in 6.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds.  He was a huge reason for their success.  Cole averaged 9.9 points in 28 games off the bench last year after being acquired from Miami.

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last year as these teams split the season series 2-2 with the home team going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  I look for that trend to continue here.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Grizzlies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota.  They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.

But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days.  That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday.  In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.

I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings.  They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs.  Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play.  The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are 18-0 and have covered six straight coming in, and the betting public continues to back them night in and night out.  It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points on the road to the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They aren't a fancy team like the Warriors, but they simply get the job done.  They have gone 8-7 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season.  I really like this team because they play suffocating defense, giving up just 93.2 points per game.

Last year, the Warriors rolled into Sal Lake City in their final meeting and lost 100-110 despite being 10-point favorites.  Utah is now 31-8 straight up in its last 39 home meetings with the Warriors.

Utah is 38-24 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on one days' rest.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are finally healthy and playing up to their potential.  They have won four straight, the last three of which came once Kevin Durant came back from injury.  They have won by 22, 11 and 16 points with Durant back in the lineup.

Now the Thunder have had ample rest heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks.  They last played on Friday in a 103-87 home win over the Pistons.  They have had two days off in between games.  The Hawks, meanwhile, will be playing their 5th game in 7 days after an 88-108 loss at San Antonio on Saturday.

The Thunder will have a huge edge on the board in this one.  They lead the NBA in rebounding margin (plus-7.7) and outrebounded Detroit 58-38 last time out while holding Andre Drummond to seven boards.  Atlanta was outrebounded 49-43 by San Antonio and ranks near the bottom of the league with a minus-3.7 margin this season.

The Thunder did lose their last trip to Atlanta, but haven't lost consecutive road games to the Hawks since 1993-94 when the franchise was based in Seattle.  They have won nine of their last 12 trips to Atlanta.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road meetings.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are about as undervalued as they could get right now.  That's because they have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall behind some atrocious defense.  But this should be a good defensive teams with the length they have at all positions, so it's not going to last.

Plus, Jason Kidd returns from his one-game suspension after being apart from the team in a 90-114 loss at Orlando on Friday.  Look for the Bucks to lay it all on the line tonight to turn this around, and for that to really show on the defensive end against the Hornets in this one.

Charlotte had won four straight before a 90-95 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday.  The Hornets are overvalued due to this recent run.  I certainly expect them to suffer a hangover from that loss to the Cavaliers as they simply couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter.  It's going to be hard to want to play the Bucks after facing a team like Cleveland.

Three of the last five meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, with the latest being a 104-94 road win by the Bucks on December 29th of last season.  These games typically go down to the wire when the Bucks and Hornets get together, so the 6.5 points her could certainly come into play.

Milwaukee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games with a total set of 200 or more points.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year.  They are 10-6 and have won three straight with an 11-point road win over the Lakers, an 11-point road win over the Clippers, and a 4-point home win over the Cavaliers.  They have given up an average of just 90.8 points per game in their last four as they have picked it up defensively.

The Wizards are scuffling right now.  They fell to 6-7 with their 78-111 loss to Boston on Friday.  They've allowed an average of 115.6 points per game in their losses this season as they clearly aren't putting enough emphasis on defense.  It appears that coach Randy Wittman is losing his team.

The Raptors want revenge after getting swept in four games in their opening round series to the Wizards in last year's playoffs.  I like their chances given the situation.  Toronto has had two days off having last played on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Washington will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.  I'll take the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Plays against home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 5-16 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 9-1 ATS when the total is 200 or more this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These five trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Saturday

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers have been the best team in the NBA over the past couple weeks.  They are shooting a league-best 41.6 percent from 3-point range this season and have won nine of 11 games this month.

Paul George scored 40 points and hit seven 3-pointers in a 123-106 win Tuesday at Washington.  C.J. Miles hit eight and scored 32 points.  It's clear right now that this team is hitting on ally cylinders offensively, scoring 112, 123 and 123 points in its last three games overall.

Indiana wants revenge from a 95-96 loss at Chicago on November 16, which was only its 2nd loss in its last 11 games.  The other was a narrow 97-101 road loss at Cleveland.  The Pacers are 5-0 at home during this stretch and should improve to 6-0 in their last six home games with a win Friday.

The home team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall.  The Pacers are 31-11 in their last 42 home meetings with the Bulls. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Chicago is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games following a road win.

Indiana is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 78-95 road loss at Miami Monday night just four days ago.  That loss had followed up a 4-game winning streak that featured road wins over both the Thunder and Rockets.  The Knicks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 9-5 start to the season.  But they have played one of the softest schedules in the NBA, and a home-heavy schedule at that.  The Heat have played 10 home games compared to just four road games.  They are 1-3 on the road this season.

I used this theory that the Heat are overvalued when I faded them in an 81-104 road loss to Detroit on Wednesday.  I'll gladly fade them again as there's no way they should be a road favorite over the Knicks here, especially with the Knicks having revenge in mind, thus they'll be the more motivated team.

New York is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Miami is 2-13 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games coming in over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after coming off a 4-game road trip or longer.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get more healthy by the day.  It has really paid off as they've put together their two best games of the season in their last two contests.  I look for them to continue to play well tonight as they did themselves out of an early hole due to the injuries.

It started with a 104-90 home win over the Spurs on November 20 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Pelicans also won 122-116 at home over these same Phoenix Suns on November 22.  Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready to face the Suns again.

Phoenix doesn't have the same luxury as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days.  After losing to the Pelicans, the Suns also went on the road and lost to the Spurs 84-98 the next night.  Leading scorer Eric Bledsoe (23.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg) missed that game against the Spurs with a knee injury.  Bledson is questionable to return tonight.  I like the Pelicans either way, but if Bledsoe sits it would be an added bonus.

Anthony Davis is averaging 31.2 points and 3.0 blocks over the last four games in which he's played at least 20 minutes.  Ryan Anderson has been a huge spark, too, averaging 28.3 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last four contests while going 15 of 32 from 3-point range.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by a mere two points.  New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4

Sacramento's best player in DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful to play in this game tonight due to a back injury.  I like the Bucks enough at -4 even if he plays that I'd still recommend them, but it's just an added bonus if Cousins sits out like he's supposed to.

Milwaukee is a team to keep your eye on in the upcoming weeks.  The Bucks were banged up in the early going, but now they are finally healthy and playing to their potential.  That showed in a 109-88 home win over the Detroit Pistons last time out to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which came in road losses to Washington, Cleveland and Indiana.  Seven different players scored in double-figures for the Bucks in that win over the Pistons.

Sacramento is just 5-10 this season and has been awful when Cousins hasn't played.  The Kings have been particularly poor on the road, going 1-5 while allowing opponents to score 111.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. The Bucks are a respectable 4-3 at home this season and allowing just 42.4% shooting.

The Bucks are 9-1 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 non-conference road games.   The Kings are 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bucks are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +1.5

The Detroit Pistons have lost two straight and six of their last eight and really need a win here.  They are undervalued due to this recent stretch, but they've played a brutal schedule this season.  They have played eight of their last 10 games on the road and only five home games all season.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 9-4 start to the season.  They have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule with 10 home games compared to just three road games.  They are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming at Minnesota.

The home team went 3-0 between these teams last year with Detroit winning both of its home meetings with Miami, including a 108-91 victory in its first meeting last year.

The Heat are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5

We're getting the Orlando Magic at a great price tonight as they basically just need to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread against the Knicks.  The value here comes from the recent success of the Knocks and the recent poor performance ATS for the Magic.

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they are overvalued as a result.  They did lose 78-95 at Miami last time out and that will be a sign of things to come.  The Magic are 1-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall, so they couldn't be more undervalued here.

The Magic have played their best basketball at home this season where they are 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS.  They are limiting opponents to just 41.3% shooting at home as their defense has been so much better this year under the guidance of Scott Skiles.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls come in well-rested and ready to go.  They were last seen losing 94-106 at Golden State after blowing an 11-point lead on Friday.  They have since had three days off in between games and will be the fresher team in this showdown with Portland.

It also helps that Derrick Rose is expected to make his return from an ankle injury.  Rose missed the Bulls' last two games with a win at Phoenix and a loss at Golden State.  He was a full participant in practice on Sunday and this extra time off has helped him recover.

The Bulls are 8-4 this season.  The last three times they've lost, they've come back their next game and gotten a win, so they are 3-0 following a loss this season.  The Blazers come in overvalued due to two straight wins over the Clippers and Lakers.  They had lost seven straight games prior to winning their last two.  They also played on Sunday, only having one day off in between games.

Plays against home teams (PORTLAND) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in November games are 39-16 (70.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Portland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +9

Off three straight non-covers, the Orlando Magic are showing great value today catching 9 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the league as they've actually won six of their last 10 games.

Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers are consistently overvalued.  That's especially the case now that they have covered two in a row with two straight double-digit wins over the Bucks and Hawks.  But they had failed to cover eight in a row prior to their back-to-back covers.

The Cavaliers were already short-handed without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  But now they are also without two starters in Tomofey Mozgov and Mo Williams, so they cannot be expected to win by double-digits given their current state health-wise.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  After a slow start, they have gone on to go 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road to arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference in Cleveland (97-101) and Chicago (95-96) by a combined five points.

The Milwaukee Bucks come in struggling.  They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last five games overall, which includes a blowout home loss to Boston (83-99), as well as two blowout road losses to Washington (86-115) and Cleveland (100-115).  I don't like their chances of keeping this one close against the Pacers, who come in on two days' rest.

Indiana is 32-10 straight up in its last 42 home meetings with Milwaukee.  It has won six of its last seven home meetings with the Bucks with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.

The Pacers are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +6.5

The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are much-improved with all the additions they made this offseason, which has led to a 6-6 start.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or less, and they have been competitive in every game they've played in.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Knicks are well-rested coming into this one as they've had two days off in between games.  They will be up against an Oklahoma City team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days, and one that remains without its best player in Kevin Durtant.

The Thunder have not played well without Durant here recently.  They lost 85-100 at home to Boston and 114-122 on the road to Memphis before beating Oklahoma City 110-103 as 12.5-point home favorites.  But the Pelicans have only won one game all season, and they were playing without Anthony Davis in that game.

The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Knicks didn't win their 6th game of the season until Game 42 last year on January 19th, which just shows how much improvement they've made with the addition of Porzingis, Lopez and company.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  With the way the Suns are playing, we are getting them at a tremendous discount.  They are 5-2 at home this season, including three straight home wins over the Clippers (by 14), Nuggets (by 24) and Lakers (by 19).  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."

Now they'll be playing against a Chicago Bulls team that will be without its best player in Derrick Rose, who is expected to sit out this game with an ankle injury.  The Bulls come in overvalued due to also going 3-0 in their last three games, but their three wins came against the 76ers, Hornets (by 5) and Pacers (by 1).

Chicago is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing in this spot by 11.9 points per game.  Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 48-24 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way overvalued right now due to incredibly going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in all road games this season.  But most of those games came in the role of a big underdog, and now they are only 3-point road dogs against the Orlando Magic tonight.

Minnesota is in an awful spot here.  It is coming off an upset win at Miami last night, so it will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Not only that, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Timberwolves, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the Magic have had three days off in between games after last playing at Washington on Saturday.

The Magic are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and have consistently been undervalued.  They are 5-6 SU & 8-3 ATS through 11 games.  Four of their six losses have come by 5 points or less to Washington (by 1), OKC (by 3), Chicago (by 5) and Houston (by 5).  You're not going to get this team at a discount like this for too much longer, so it's time to take advantage.

The Magic are 3-0 in their last three home games with impressive wins over the Raptors, Lakers and Jazz.  Orlando is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including three straight wins by 13, 9 and 8 points.  The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that average 56 or more boards per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Orlando.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 93-95 loss at Charlotte on November 11 less than a week ago.  Kristaps Porzingis hit a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks, but it was called off because it came after the buzzer.  I look for the Knicks to have their revenge at home this time around.

New York is clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season.  It sits at 5-6, but all six of its losses have come by 11 points or less as it has been competitive in every game.  What really shows that the Knicks are undervalued is the fact that they've gone 7-4 ATS.  They should not be underdogs here.

Charlotte has played well at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Bobcats are 2-4 on the road this year with their only wins coming against depleted Mavericks and Timberwolves teams at the time they played them.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.   The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.

New York outrebounded Charlotte 52-33 in the first meeting, and it's average of 15.5 second-chance points is one of the best marks in the NBA.  The Knicks also have one of the league's best scoring averages (41.7) from their bench this year.  Robin Lopez did a good job of limiting Al Jefferson to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

It's time to buy low on the Houston Rockets tonight as they come into this game with three straight losses straight up and against the spread.  It's also time to sell high on the Boston Celtics as they come in off a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS stretch. I believe the Rockets are simply undervalued here as only 5-point home favorites after these recent results.

But the Rockets have been playing without Dwight Howard for almost half of the season in the early going, and they're 1-3 without him.  They are allowing an average of 57.3 points in the paint in their last three games without him compared to 48.7 in the six games he's played.  The good news is that Howard is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so the defense is going to be much better.

Houston has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Boston, and it is 4-0 in its last four home meetings.  Its last four home wins have come by 14, 24, 12 and 16 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  I believe another double-digit home win for the Rockets is in store tonight.

Boston is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Celtics are 47-77 ATS in its last 124 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 16-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Rockets going 4-0 ATS.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +5

The Utah Jazz conclude a tough 4-game road trip with a game against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They have opened 0-3 on this trip and they do not want to go back home without a win.  Look for the Jazz to be laying it all on the line tonight against the Hawks as a result.

Utah may be 0-3 on this trip, but it could easily be 2-1.  It only lost 114-118 at Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs and 91-92 at Miami as 3.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Jazz ran out of gas in playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days in a 93-102 loss at Orlando last time out.  But they've had a day to recoup before this game.

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They already have four wins by 6 points or less this year.  They were without head coach Mike Budenholzer for family reasons in a 93-106 loss to Boston in their last game on Friday.  They are expected to be without Budenholzer again tonight, and they certainly miss his leadership and X's and O's.

Utah is also going to be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta.  The last three have come by 6, 3 and 2 points, so they've been very close.  In fact, six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well.

The Jazz are 36-23 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Utah is 20-9 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in over the past two years.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

The Washington Wizards are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to Atlanta, Boston and Oklahoma City with two of those games coming on the road.  Those are three of the better teams in the NBA.  It's safe to say the Wizards are going to be motivated for a victory when they host the Orlando Magic tonight.

This is a great spot for the Wizards, who have had three full days off since that Oklahoma City loss.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be by far the more tired team heading into this one.

Orlando beat Utah last night, so it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Magic, which is just absolutely brutal.  I look for them to come out flat in this game and to not be able to match the intensity and energy of the Wizards.

Washington has simply owned Orlando, going 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Wizards have won each of their seven home meetings with Orlando all by 5 points or more.  They have won those seven meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game.  I fully expect them to win their 8th straight home meeting with the Magic, and for it to come by 6-plus points with ease.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls have had three full days off in between games since their 111-88 road win at Philadelphia on Monday.  They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight because of all this time off, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Chicago will also have extra incentive coming into this one after suffering its worst loss of the season in a 105-130 setback at Charlotte on November 3.  The Hornets just couldn't miss, hitting 14 of-23 (60.9%) from 3-point range in that game.  That's obviously not going to happen again here, especially with the Bulls extra motivated to put forth a much better defensive effort this time around.

The Hornets are overvalued here due to winning and covering in each of their last two games.  They beat Minnesota on the road 104-95 as the Timberwolves were without three starters in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Garnett.  The Timberwolves haven't won at home yet this season, either.  Then they were lucky to beat the Knicks 95-93 at home last time out as Kristaps Porzingis' potential game-winning 3-pointer was ruled to have come after the buzzer.

Chicago is 28-11 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, including 18-6 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more during this same time frame.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.  The Bulls are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home meetings with the Hornets.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +1

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They should not be road favorites over the Boston Celtics, who I have pegged as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

The Celtics are just 3-4, but they have played a tough schedule with their losses coming against Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (twice).  But the Celctis' three wins have all come by 16 points or more, and they are actually outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game in spite of their losing record.  The Hawks are only outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game with their 8-2 record for comparison's sake.

As you can see, Atlanta has already played 10 games this season, while Boston has only played seven.  That makes the Celtics the fresher team right now as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Atlanta will actually be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Celtics are 28-8 in their last 36 home meetings with the Hawks, including 6-2 in their last eight.  Boston is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 games following a home loss by 10 or more points.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened the season 3-0 and were rolling, but then they hit a tough part of their schedule.  They had to play a stretch of four games in five nights, which didn't go well for them.

After beating the Nuggets 117-93 at home to start that stretch, the Thunder lost 105-110 at Houston the next night.  They also lost 98-103 at home to Toronto before falling 98-104 at Chicago.  They had their chances to win all three games, but instead they have lost three straight coming in.  Now they have had two days off after last playing on Thursday and will come back refreshed and ready to go tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are 3-3 and have played decently, but their three wins have come against the worst three teams they've played in the Blazers (twice) and Kings (without DeMarcus Cousins).  Their three losses have come to Dallas (95-111), the Clippers (96-102) and Detroit (92-100) against the three best teams they've played.

The Thunder won three of four meetings with the Suns last year, including a 112-88 win in their first home contest as similar 7.5-point favorites.  Oklahoma City is 142-103 ATS in tis last 245 games following a loss.  Look for an inspired effort from the Thunder that leads to a double-digit home victory.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +18

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They won their first four games by a combined 100 points, so they have set expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and the oddsmakers.

I faded the Warriors with success in their last game Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers as they needed a 4th quarter comeback to win 112-108 at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They formed a rivalry with the Clippers in the offseason with all of their trash talk back and forth, and they are now in a prime letdown spot off that big win on National TV.

The Denver Nuggets have shown me enough this season to know that they can stay within this ridiculous 18-point spread.  They have actually played their two best games on the road this year, winning 105-85 at Houston as 10.5-point underdogs and 120-109 at Los Angeles (Lakers) as 3-point dogs.

The Nuggets have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 straight up in their last six meetings.  More importantly, they have only lost one of the last 51 meetings by more than 15 points and by more than this 18-point margin.  That's a ridiculous 50-1 system backing Denver pertaining to this spread.  Roll with the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are highly motivated for a victory Friday night when they host the Atlanta Hawks.  They are one of four winless teams this season, but they have already played the defending champion Warriors twice.  Look for the Pelicans to come out with the attitude that they're not going to be denied of their first victory as I fully expect their strongest performance of the season here.

The Pelicans are shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, which isn't going to last.  Antony Davis, who shot 53.5 percent last year and averaged 24.4 points per game, is only shooting 37.9 percent this year.  Eric Gordon (36.7%), Jrue Holiday (37%) & Ryan Anderson (39.7%) are all shooting below 40 percent.  All four of these guys are good shooters, and it's not going to last.  They'll break out of the slump tonight.

Atlanta is overvalued right now due to winning five straight since a season-opening 94-106 home loss to Detroit.  The Hawks have won three times by six points or less during this streak, so they've been fortunate in close games.  They've also played a very easy schedule with the Knicks, Hornets (twice), Heat and Nets.  This will be their first matchup against a Western Conference team this season.

The Pelicans have owned the Hawks in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups.  They've won two games on the road, and in their lone home meeting last year, they won 115-100 as identical 3-point underdogs.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS off two straight games where it had 10 or more steals over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games on Friday nights over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 points per game.  Look for the Pelicans to feed off of their home crowd tonight as they cheer them on to their first victory.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +15

The Cleveland Cavaliers are just concerned with winning games right now, not by how much they win by.  That's because they are still missing three key players in Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith due to injury.  Asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover the spread against the 76ers tonight is asking too much.

Cleveland needed a 26-17 fourth quarter to put away a bad New York Knicks team 96-86 on Wednesday night.  Four of its first five games have been decided by 10 points or less, including a 107-100 win at Philadelphia as 13-point favorites just four nights ago.  That close game against the 76ers was par for the course in this series.

Indeed, the 76ers have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in recent meetings.  All three meetings last year were decided by 13 points or less.  The Cavs have won three of the last four meetings, but they have come only by 7, 1 and 13 points.  The 76ers won 95-92 in one of them as well.

Philadelphia's 100-107 loss to Cleveland was a very good effort, and it came back with perhaps an even better performance in its last game.  The 76ers only lost 87-91 at Milwaukee as 8.5-point underdogs on Wednesday night.  Rookie T.J. McConnell took advantage of his first start at point guards, scoring seven points with 12 assists and nine rebounds.  Rookie Jahlil Okafor has lived up to his No. 2 pick status, averaging 20.3 points on 54.8 percent shooting.  Nerlens Noel has chipped in 13.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1996.   Philadelphia is 91-64 ATS in its last 155 games as an underdog of 10 points or more.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +1

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly-motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight to three very good teams in Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (by 2 on the road).  They are last in the league with just 19.0 points per game in the 1st quarter this year, so expect them to be focused from the start in this one.

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot and are fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  Their three wins have all come by 5 points or less to Orlando, Milwaukee and San Antonio.  Bradley Beal hit a game-winning 3-pointer right before the buzzer to beat the Spurs on Wednesday, and off such a big win the Wizards will come out flat tonight against a Celtics team that wants it more.

The home team won all three meetings between these teams last year.  The Celtics won 101-93 as 3.5-point dogs in their only home meeting.  They also lost a heartbreaking 133-132 (OT) as 9-point underdogs on the road.  The Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, but their record hasn't reflected that yet, which is why they are undervalued here as home dogs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Take the Celtics Friday.

20* Thunder/Bulls TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing each of their last two games by five points apiece to Houston and Toronto.  That's why I'm not concerned that they are playing a 4-in-5 situation here, especially this early in the season as teams don't get tired this early.

The Chicago Bulls are a completely different team now under Fred Hoiberg.  They are no longer concerned with being defensive stoppers, which was evident when they allowed 130 points to the Charlotte Hornets of all teams the other night.  They are just 1-4 ATS on the season and overvalued here as favorites against a superior team in the Thunder.

While the Thunder are a dangerous team when they're at full strength like they are right now, the Bulls are dealing with an injury to their best player in Derrick Rose.  The guy can't even see straight, so he's not himself.  Rose is only averaging 10.2 points per game on 33.9% shooting in nearly 31 minutes per game.  Joakim Noah is only playing 19 minutes per game and averaging 2.0 points because he's a misfit now in Hoiberg's system.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there's value in backing these supposed 'tired' teams this early in the year.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Charlotte Hornets are hungry for their first taste of victory tonight.  They haven't played poorly, but they've been up against a tough schedule in the early going during their 0-3 start.  They have also been unfortunate in a couple close games.

The Hornets lost 94-104 at Miami before falling 94-97 at Atlanta in its first two games.  It then lost 92-94 at home to Atlanta in its last contest.  Kemba Walker had a chance to force overtime in each of the last two losses late, but missed both shots.

The Hornets have only shot 39.1% and are allowing 44.7% shooting, so the fact that they've been close while shooting the ball that poorly shows a lot about what this team is capable of.  Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that is vulnerable.

Derrick Rose can't even see, so he's not himself and has had to be more of a facilitator this season.  The Bulls have gone 3-1, but three of their four games were decided by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout win came against arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Brooklyn Nets.

Chicago is 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Hornets have actually won three of the last five meetings in this series.  Look for an inspired effort from them as they get their first win tonight, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +9.5

The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start that has produced a 3-0 ATS record as well. They're already a favorite of the betting public, so they are going to consistently have a few more points tacked onto their lines.  I believe they are laying too many points to the Grizzlies tonight.

While the Warriors are 3-0, they have faced a pretty easy schedule thus far.  They have already played the Pelicans twice, who are the most banged-up team in the NBA right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They also played the 0-3 Rockets, who have injuries of their own.

But now they face a motivated Memphis team that is healthy and one of the few teams in the West that matches up well with the Warriors.  Remember, the Grizzlies had a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors in the playoffs last year, but then lost three straight to fall in six games.

The Grizzlies can hang with the Warriors because they play great defense, especially at the all-important guard positions with Mike Conley and Courtney Lee, who match up as well with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as any backcourt in the NBA.  The Grizzlies held the Warriors to just 97.8 points per game in the playoff series last year, which is absolutely terrific.

Memphis is 101-67 ATS in its last 168 vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or better.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Golden State.  Memphis is 144-106 ATS in its last 250 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were booed off their home floor in a 71-99 loss to Utah on October 30 as they dropped to 0-2 on the season.  I look for them to come back with a very strong effort today off that embarrassment, especially since they've had two days to correct their mistakes.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are overvalued right now because they have opened the season by going a perfect 3-0 against the spread.  They are a public team anyways because they have Lebron James, and now they are laying way too many points on the road tonight as 13.5-point favorites here.

Philadelphia will get up for the defending Eastern Conference champions.  The 76ers played the Cavaliers extremely tough last year.  They went 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 95-92 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone home meetings, lost by 13 as 17-point road dogs, and lost 87-86 as 17-point road dogs.  They know they can be competitive with this team tonight.

The 76ers are 90-64 ATS in their last 154 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Cavaliers are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 Monday games.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

These teams just played two nights ago on October 30 with the Hawks coming away with a 97-94 home victory.  This is one of my favorite situations as the Hornets get a shot at revenge just two nights later, this time at home, as an underdogs to boot.

The Hornets are highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have played two tough road games at Miami and at Atlanta, and now they get to play at home for the first time this year Sunday.  Look for them to take care of business on their home floor.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently.  Indeed, the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 115-100 and 122-119 over the Hawks in their two meetings at home last year, and that was an Atlanta team that won 60 games and was better than the 2015-16 version is.  The Hornets are a better team this year than last with the players they added in the offseason.

Plays against any team (ATLANTA) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Hornets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

This is a rematch from the Kings' 104-111 home loss to the Clippers in the season opener.  Getting a chance to face the Clippers again this quickly is a positive for the Kings, who will be out for revenge tonight.  Los Angeles closed that game on an 11-4 run to pull out the victory, and Sacramento would like to return the favor.

I was impressed with how tough the Kings played the Clippers in that game despite shooting just 43.6% from the field and allowing 52.5% shooting as they still had a chance to win in the end.  Then they came back and dominated the Lakers 132-114 last night and shot 51.5%.  George Karl has this team playing well in the early going.

Sacramento is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 road games off a home win over a division rival.  The Clippers are 28-49 ATS in their last 77 after two consecutive covers as a favorite, only winning by 0.8 points per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in its previous game.  The Clippers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win after starting the season 0-2.  They've played some pretty tough competition in the early going with games against Toronto and Memphis, two of the better teams from their respective conferences.

But now they take a step down in competition and face the Utah Jazz, who are a fringe playoff contender in the West.  The Pacers will be fresh and ready to go after having yesterday off, while the Jazz will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing the 76ers on the road yesterday.

The Pacers have owned the Jazz in this series, going 6-1 in the last seven meetings with their only loss coming in overtime.  All six wins have come by three points or more as well.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4

I was on the Denver Nuggets in their opener when they won 105-85 at Houston as 11-point underdogs.  I'm going to ride them again in their second game of the season as I still believe they're way undervalued right now as only 4-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The loss of Ty Lawson is overblown for the Nuggets.  They replaced him with a player who is going to be way more important to the franchise in rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who played professionally in China last year.  Mudiay had 17 points and nine assists in the opener against the Rockets.

But there's still plenty of talent on this team.  Kenneth Faried is back and had 18 points and nine rebounds in the opener.  Danilo Gallinari is finally healthy and led the way with 23 points and eight boards against the Rockets.  Joffrey Lauvergne is a guy to keep your eye on as he had 11 points and seven boards.  Plus, Will Barton, Jameer Nelson, Darrell Arthur, Gary Harris and Randy Foye provide some really nice depth.

If it's not the Philadelphia 76ers, then the Minnesota Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA this season.  They won their opener against the Lakers 112-111 but had to erase a double-digit second half deficit to do so.  They were inspired in that game playing for former head coach Flip Saunders, who passed away at 60 years old.  But this team is not very good.

Minnesota has a decent future with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, but for now those are the only two players that you can be excited about.  The Timberwolves start two washed-up veterans in Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince, who combined for six points in the opener.  Ricky Rubio scored a career-high 28 points, but don't expect that to continue as he's never been known as a scorer.  Kevin Martin takes too many bad shots and hijacks the offense.

Denver won three out of four meetings with Minnesota last year with all three wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one days' rest.  Denver is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics finished last season strong and got even better in the offseason.  It led to one of the best preseason performances in the NBA.  The Celtics went 6-1 in preseason and ranked 2nd in the league in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Thunder were better.

The solid play carried over into the regular season opener as the Celtics topped the 76ers 112-95 at home as 12.5-point favorites.  They held Philadelphia to just 40.5% shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  Now they take a step up in competition here, but I look for them to get it done as only 2-point home favorites over the Raptors.

I'm also pretty high on Toronto this year, but the Celtics will likely prove to be the better team in the end.  The Raptors did won 106-99 at home over the Pacers in their opener, but had to erase a double-digit deficit to do so.  They turned the ball over 20 times in that game and the Celtics will feast on their poor ball handling in this one to create plenty of easy scoring opportunities in transition.

Boston won each of its final two meetings with Toronto last year.  The Raptors are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Boston is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 after playing a game as a home favorite.  The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Boston is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 home games and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  Take the Celtics Friday.

15* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +11

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be playing some inspired basketball in this one.  They are not happy with the Los Angeles Clippers, who stole DeAndre Jordan back from them in the offseason.  I look for these Mavericks to take it personally and to come out with a great effort in this one.

I was very impressed with the Mavericks last night in their 111-95 road win at Phoenix.  They had eight players score in double figures in a complete team effort.  The Mavericks also got a chance to rest a little for this game after building a 27-point lead in the third quarter.

Los Angeles was in a dogfight with Sacramento on the road last night and won't be as fresh coming in.  The Clippers needed to go on an 11-4 run to close out the game to win 111-104.  They aren't going to have what it takes to put away the Mavs by double-digits in this one.

The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a mash unit right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without two starters in Tyreke Evans and Omer Asik, as well as key role players in Quincy Pondexter and Norris Cole.  The statuses of Jrue Holiday and Dante Cunningham are also in question.

The Pelicans were thoroughly outplayed in their 95-111 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night, trailing by nearly 20 points for a good portion of the game.  Now they have to play a second of a back-to-back with a short-handed club, which won't be easy.

Everyone is writing off the Portland Trail Blazers, but I believe they are going to be better than expected this year.  They ranked 14th in the preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 1.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Pelicans ranked just 25th in efficiency, getting outscored by 3.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Blazers still have one of the best players in the NBA in Damian Lillard running the show.  They added some established veterans in Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis.  Plus C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard are both ready for bigger roles this year.  These players are going to be motivated from the start to prove their doubters wrong.

"Coming into this season, we're going to be underdogs and people may disrespect us, people may look at us like we can't compete with them," Lillard told the team's official website. "We've got to take that to heart. We've got to be offended by that and we've got to play like it."

The Blazers have won five straight meetings with the Pelicans, and they are 8-0 in their last eight home meetings with their last loss coming in 2010.  The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +11

The Denver Nuggets are getting no love from oddsmakers in the opener as double-digit road underdogs to the Houston Rockets.  I believe the Nuggets are going to be better than expected under first-year head coach Mike Malone, who was one of the hottest candidates on the market.

Denver may come away with the best player in the draft when it's all said and done in Emmanuel Mudiay, who takes over at the point for the departed Ty Lawson.  This is a team that returns some very good veterans in Kenneth Faried, a healthy Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  They are out to prove their doubters wrong this season, starting tonight.

"I love challenges," said Mudiay, who bypassed college to spend last year playing pro ball in China. "My team gives me a lot of confidence and has a lot of trust in me."

"I believe we have a chance to make the playoffs this year," Faried said. "I 100 percent believe that - 110 percent. I don't care what anybody has to say about it."

Houston is not at full strength right now and shouldn't be this heavy of a favorite as a result.  It is going to be without key big men Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas, who are both listed as doubtful.  Look for the Nuggets to clean up on the boards and to get some easy second-chance points in this one that will help keep them in the game for four quarters.

The Nuggets went 4-3 in the preseason while the Rockets went just 3-5.  The Nuggets actually finished 12th in the NBA in preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are just 18th in efficiency, getting outscored by 0.7 points per 100 posssessions.  Houston is 53-79 ATS in its last 132 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz were quietly one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch last year.  They had the sixth-best winning percentage (65.5) in the NBA after the All-Star Break, which has them primed to be a dark horse in the Western Conference this year.

Gordon Heyward and Derrick Favors are entering their primes.  This team really took off when Rudy Gobert was inserted into the starting linuep after trading Enes Kanter.  Gobert averaged 11.1 points, 13.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks after the All-Star Break, and his presence makes this one of the best defenses in the NBA.

The Pistons are coming off an impressive 106-94 victory last night on the road over the Hawks.  But this is not a very deep team and all five of their starters played at least 34 minutes last night.  I'll gladly fade them in this second of a back-to-back situation to open the season.

The Jazz are 17-2 int heir last 19 meetings with the Pistons, including 8-1 in Detroit.  The Pistons are 59-91 ATS in their last 150 home games when playing the second of a back-to-back.  The Jazz are 9-1 ATS int their last 10 trips to Detroit.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.