Sports Picks & Predictions

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder represent my strongest side release for the 2012 NBA Finals in Game 4 tonight. This is basically a must-win game for them, and I'm expecting their best effort of the series tonight as they steal one at Miami.

The Thunder have been one of the most resilient teams in the NBA over the last few years. They dug themselves some early holes in each of the last two games, but fought back to have a chance late only to fall a little short. I look for OKC to dominate from start to finish in this one.

The Thunder are 18-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. OKC is 60-30 ATS in its last 90 games following a S.U. loss, and 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Miami. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ABC Game 3 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +4.5

After falling short of a comeback in Game 2, I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder to bounce back with a victory in Game 3. This has been one of the most resilient teams in the league as they almost always respond well following a defeat.

With two days in between games to prepare, I certainly think it benefits the Thunder more. I believe their coach makes the better adjustments and will come up with the right game plan for tonight. Plus, Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest.

The Thunder are 60-29-1 ATS in their last 90 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Thunder are 29-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Oklahoma City in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston +8

The Boston Celtics have been extremely resilient in this series. After falling behind 0-2, they fought back for a 3-2 lead. After a poor effort in Game 6, I have no doubt the Celtics will show up tonight in Game 7.

Lebron James was unstoppable in Game 6, scoring 45 points on 19-of-26 shooting. It was an amazing game for him, but there's no way he has the same type of game tonight. He was hitting jump shots to score most of his points, so it was somewhat of a fluke. Doc Rivers will make sure to get the ball out of Lebron's hands early and often in this one.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Heat, cashing 80% of the time. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami. This team has won six of 10 meetings with Miami this season, yet they don't get treated like the better team from oddsmakers. I'll take full advantage once again in Game 7. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 6 No-Doubt Rout on Boston +2

The Boston Celtics continue to get no love despite outplaying Miami for four straight games now. After blowing a big lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime, the Celtics have grabbed a stranglehold on this series. They are making all the big plays down the stretch, and that won't change tonight.

Doc Rivers is coaching circles around Eric Spoelstra in this series. He has his team playing together and making all the right adjustments, while Spoelstra has his team playing as individuals and looking lost offensively. Miami's role players have not showed up, and their chances of doing so in a hostile atmosphere tonight in Boston are slim to none.

It's amazing that the Celtics are an underdog considering the fact that they've owned Miami this season. After going 3-1 in the regular season, the Celtics are now 6-3 in all meetings with the Heat this season, including a sensational 8-1 ATS. Miami is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 6-20 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog. Bet Boston in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5

I have backed the Oklahoma City Thunder against the spread with success in each of their last three games. However, I'm switching gears tonight and going with the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 of this series for a few simple reasons.

Oklahoma City is still a young team and has few key players that have ever been to the NBA Finals. Close-out games are the toughest, especially when trying to advance to a stage as big as the NBA Finals. I don't believe the Thunder will be up to the task tonight.

The Spurs' lives are at stake tonight, and they'll be giving 110% for 48 minutes to try to stay alive. There's no question the Thunder will be trying hard as well, but they will likely be trying too hard which will lead to turnovers and quick shots. I just don't think they're ready to win a big game like this with what's at stake.

San Antonio, meanwhile, is a veteran bunch with several players that have been to the NBA Finals before. They have been through these elimination games, and they won't be phased by it. I look for Greg Popovich to rally his troops, and for his players to go out and execute better than Oklahoma City does.

The Spurs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 6.5 points/game. San Antonio is also 20-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 8.8 points/game. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +8

The Boston Celtics have all of the momentum heading into Game 5. They have outplayed the Miami Heat in three straight games now, though they gave away Game 2. Boston nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game 4, but managed to win 93-91 in overtime which gives them the belief they can win this series.

Last year, the Celtics lost Game 4 to the Heat in heartbreaking fashion, which put them down 3-1 in the series, thus it what basically over. Now even at 2-2, the Celtics understand they have a great shot at advancing to the NBA Finals, and I fully expect them to take advantage.

The Celtics have had an excellent game plan these last three contests, with the key being double-teaming both James and Wade with great help defense. While Chris Bosh is expected to return tonight, it could actually hurt the Heat as they've been getting used to playing without him. Plus, he'll certainly be rusty his first game back.

The Celtics are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Miami is 6-19 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings with Miami as they clearly have their number. Bet Boston in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs TNT Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have all of the momentum heading into Game 5 tonight. They made all the right adjustments in Games 3 and 4, and I expect them to steal one in San Antonio Monday. Getting the five points is just an added bonus.

Oklahoma City has gone to a smaller line-up more frequently in the last two games, which allows them to match up with the Spurs much better. They can switch pick and rolls on defense, which takes away many of the options that San Antonio likes to use.

The biggest adjustment has been putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker defensively. Parker scored 16 and 12 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. The Thunder won Game 4 109-103 despite off nights from Russell Wesbrook (2-10, 7 points) and James Harden (4-13, 11 points), which is a great sign for them going forward.

The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. OKC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio's 20-game winning streak came to an end, and now they're rattled and lacking the confidence they had during their streak. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 5 Monday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Boston +2

Boston realistically should be up 2-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2. But they responded well in Game 3, topping the Heat 101-91 at home. I fully expect the Celtics to roll at home in Game 4 as well.

The home team has been absolutely dominant in this series thus far. The home squad is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings overall. Miami has really struggled against the number in Boston, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 visits to the TD Garden.

The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Boston is 26-9 ATS in their last 35 Sunday games. The Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog. The Heat are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 4 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5

I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder once again in Game 4 Saturday. They have figured out the Spurs, and they'll even this series up with a blowout victory tonight. This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as the Thunder should be a much bigger favorite.

Oklahoma City is 32-7 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs. You could argue that they have the best home-court advantage in the history of the NBA. Head coach Mark Brooks has decided to put Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker, and it worked wonders in Game 3 as Parker was held to just 16 points.

The Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder represent my strongest release for the entire 2012 NBA playoffs tonight. I know the San Antonio Spurs have won 20 straight, but they haven't faced an atmosphere nearly as tough as the one they'll face in Game 3 tonight.

This is a "must win" situation for the Thunder, and I fully expect them to roll at home tonight. They found out what works in the second half of Game 2, which is a smaller line-up to counter the line-up the Spurs have on the floor. The Thunder cut a 22-point deficit down to 6 when going to small ball.

The Thunder are 31-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents 105.3 to 95.5 on average. They are a perfect 5-0 at home in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has the best home-court advantage of any team left in the playoffs. They are favored for good reason tonight as oddsmakers know this is their game to win.

The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +8

I'm siding with the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 2. Boston had their chances in Game 1, but they tried to give the game away with technical foul after technical foul in a game where the calls simply didn't go their way.

Instead of talking, I look for the Celtics to let their play speak for itself tonight. Boston has vowed to be more physical, which will be needed after giving up too many layups in Game 1. Nothing is going to come easy for Lebron James and Dwyane Wade tonight.

Head coach Doc Rivers is one of the best in the business at making adjustments. He's also excellent at getting the most out of his players. He'll be looking to do just that after their poor performance in Game 1, and I look for his veteran players to respond.

Boston is 22-7 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Miami, only once losing by more than 8 points. The Celtics went 3-1 S.U. against the Heat during the regular season. Take the Celtics in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave away Game 1 by allowing 39 points to the San Antonio Spurs in the 4th quarter, blowing an 11-point lead in the second half. I believe they'll come back highly motivated from that collapse and steal Game 2 tonight.

I look for the Thunder to make the proper adjustments in between games to make sure to cut off the penetration by Parker and Ginobli much better than they did in Game 1. Oklahoma City did a decent job of it through the first three quarters, but simply forgot what they were doing in the 4th, yet still only lost by 3 points.

The Thunder are 59-28-1 ATS in their last 88 games following a S.U. loss, so they are certainly one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. OKC is as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Thunder in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +8.5

The Boston Celtics are getting no respect from oddsmakers in Game 1 tonight. I'll take full advantage and back the Celtics at this inflated number Monday. Boston is a tough match-up for Miami, especially considering the Heat are still without Chris Bosh.

Doc Rivers is a defensive genius of a head coach. He knows how to stop superstars, and he'll have the perfect game plan to defend Lebron James and Dwyane Wade by double-teaming them often, making other players try and beat them. Boston has proven in the past that they know how to stop these two.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after a combined score of 160 points or less this season. The Celtics are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boston is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Miami. The Celtics won three of four meetings this season with their lone loss coming by 8 points. Bet Boston in Game 1 Monday.

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -5.5

Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in these last two games with a lot on the line with the series tied at 2-2. Boston won Game 5 in convincing fashion 101-85, while Philly responded with a 82-75 triumph in Game 6.

I believe the Celtics will feed off their home crowd tonight, and their role players will be the difference in this one. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce played well in Game 6, but the rest of the Celtics players shot a combined 12-of-47 (25.5 percent) from the field. These role players will be much more confident at home in Game 7.

Philly is a very young team that is not ready to shine on a stage like tonight's. Boston is a veteran franchise that has been in these spots before, so the pressure of a Game 7 won't phase them. Their veteran leaders in Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo will lead the team to victory as their role players follow suit.

Boston is 10-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are also 9-1 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Saturday.

20* Celtics/76ers Game 6 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Boston +1.5

In a potential elimination game tonight, these young Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to be able to handle the pressure. I fully expect these veteran Boston Celtics to rise to the occasion and put an end to this series tonight. They will be in a better state of mind heading into this one.

"It's not really doom and gloom," Andre Iguodala said. "You get in a situation like this, you get thoughts creeping in your mind it could be over in a day or two. Our guys are talking about tomorrow and what we've got to do to try and win that game."

The comments from many of the 76ers young players, and coach Doug Collins, lead me to believe that they are putting way too much into this game. Obviously, it's win or go home, but Sixers guard Jrue Holiday says he looks at Game 6 as, "kind of like the end of the world." They are basically over-hyping themselves heading into this one, which doesn't usually work.

The Celtics are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Boston is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The 76ers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +6.5

Despite losing Game 4 at home to the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers are still in better position in this series. That's because they are fully healthy, while the Heat remain without Chris Bosh.

Lebron James and Dwyane Wade came up huge in Game 4, combining for 70 of the team's 101 points in a 101-93 victory. You can bet the Pacers are going to have a game plan to make sure that James and Wade don't beat them again, forcing other unproven players to take and make big shots.

Indiana has outscored Miami by 5 points in this series. The Pacers should not be the underdog in Game 5 given the Heat's health situation. The betting public is going to flock to the Heat after their Game 4 performance, but I'm going the other way with this one and backing the better team.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. This is a combined 20-1 (95%) system backing Indiana tonight. Take the Pacers Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT Monday No-Brainer on Boston -5.5

The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a small home favorite in Game 5 of this series with the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston knows they did not play well in their first two home games in this series, and they want to come out and make a statement with a blowout home victory tonight with the series tied at 2-2.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in the second half of Game 4. You can bet this team will come out hungry tonight, similarly to when they did in Game 3. After losing Game 2 at home, the Celtics went on the road and stole Game 3 with an emphatic 107-91 victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. This team plays their best in big games. Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

20* Clippers/Spurs TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +11

It has certainly been a nice trend of backing teams that lose Game 1 in Game 2. I'm going to follow that path tonight as well by taking the Los Angeles Clippers as a double-digit underdog against the San Antonio Spurs.

Los Angeles hung tough in Game 1, but they simply didn't have the energy needed to keep up following their grueling 7-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies last round. With an extra day of rest, and knowing they cannot afford to go down 0-2, the Clippers will be giving max effort tonight for 48 minutes. It will be enough to cover this inflated spread.

San Antonio shot a ridiculous 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) from 3-point range in Game 1, and the odds are simply against them shooting that well again. They still only won by 15 points despite shooting so well from the perimeter. Look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments and to show better effort in rotating to San Antonio's 3-point shooters.

This play falls into a system that is 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 6.8 points/game in this spot. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +8

I really like taking teams in Game 2 of a playoff series after a bad loss in Game 1. That's precisely what I'll do tonight by backing the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday over the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can bet that the Lakers are going to give a much better showing in this one.

Los Angeles was simply tired from their Game 7 victory over Denver. The Lakers had to fly out to Oklahoma City, and they really didn't have a lot of time to prepare for the Thunder. After facing them once, and getting a practice day, the Lakers will be much more prepared for Game 2.

This is a team that sometimes just doesn't show up for whatever reason. However, when they really need a win, Kobe, Andrew Bynum and Co. really do give it their all, and usually come out on top. I look for that to be the case tonight and for this one to go right down to the wire as the Lakers make the proper adjustments on both sides of the ball.

"Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is," said Kobe Bryant, a five-time NBA champ. "They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will."

Oklahoma City is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They are only outscoring opponents in this spot by an average of 3.7 points/game. The Thunder are also just 3-12 ATS after scoring 110 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by a mere 0.6 points/game. Take the Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/76ers TNT Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +2

After a poor performance in Game 2 in which the Boston Celtics didn't even look like they were trying, I look for them to come out hungry and motivated in Game 3. Even though they didn't put their best foot forward, the Celtics still had a chance to win that game. You can bet the 76ers will be getting Boston's best effort tonight, which will be good enough for a Celtics win.

"I don't like the fact that we took, to me, almost three quarters to play the right way offensively," coach Doc Rivers said. "We knew the blueprint before the game. It took us three quarters to get into it. I always say that's on me. Somehow, I have to figure that out with our guys."

"Being in their building really isn't going to affect us," Ray Allen said. "It's all about how we play them when we get out there, how we take care and work together better than what we did (in Game 2)."

Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also 8-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take these 100% & 92% systems straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my favorite bet for the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs Tuesday. I look for Indiana to not only cover this inflated 7-point spread in Game 2, but to likely win it outright as well.

Miami is really going to miss Chris Bosh. The Pacers already have a huge length advantage in this series over the Heat, and now their height is going to be an even bigger edge. Bosh is underrated as he averages 18.0 points and 7.9 rebounds, and that's production that simply cannot be replaced.

The Pacers proved they could play with the Heat in Game 1. They held a 48-42 lead at halftime, and were tied 70-70 at the end of the 3rd quarter before getting outscored 16-25 over the final period. I look for Indiana to finish much stronger in this all-important Game 2 tonight.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, while the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series overall. Indiana is a very profitable 217-163 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1996. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Thunder Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +7.5

I look for Game 1 of this series to go right down to the wire. Throughout the years, there's no question that Game 1 has been THE GAME for the road team to steal. At full strength with Metta World Peace back, the Lakers are as dangerous as any team left in the playoffs.

The Lakers are riding high following their impressive Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets a few nights ago. They have the momentum heading into this contest. That's because while Oklahoma City swept Dallas in the first round, they haven't played a game in 8 days. Look for the Thunder to come out rusty in this one.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games overall. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Monday.

20* Pacers/Heat ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most dangerous threat to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. They are way undervalued coming into this Game 1 showdown against the Heat Sunday, and I'll take full advantage.

These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Pacers got progressively better. Indiana lost by 35 in their first meeting, and by 15 in their second. Then, in their third meeting, the Pacers lost in overtime 93-91, and won their 4th meeting 105-90.

The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Heat are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Underdog is 24-9-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are favored for good reason tonight. I'll side with the oddsmakers in this one and back the Grizzlies in Game 6 Friday. Despite being down 3-2 in this series, I have no doubt that the Grizzlies are the better team.

Los Angeles has simply had good fortune late in games, which is the reason they lead this series. That good fortune has appeared to run out as their two superstars both suffered injuries in their Game 5 loss to the Grizzlies, and each is banged up heading into this one.

Griffin suffered a hyperflexed left knee in the loss. Though he was able to return, Griffin wasn't very effective in Game 5. Paul aggravated a right groin injury during the fourth quarter of Wednesday's defeat. He played through the injury for most of the final quarter before sitting out the final minute of the game. Paul is actually a game-time decision tonight.

The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Memphis in Game 6 Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

After failing to close out the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 with a tough 1-point loss in Atlanta, the Boston Celtics won't waste another opportunity in Game 6 tonight. I fully expect the Celtics to roll in blowout fashion and put the Hawks out of their misery.

I look for this game to take a similar path to Game 4, where the Celtics led huge the entire way. Boston would win that contest 101-79 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Atlanta is a very tired team right now as they had four of their five starters play 41 or more minutes in Game 5. The other, Marvin Williams, played nearly 36 minutes. The Hawks didn't have one bench player play more than 8 minutes in Game 5. Look for Atlanta to ware down in the 4th quarter tonight.

The Hawks are 9-24 ATS in road games in all playoff games since 1996. The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis Grizzlies -6

In Game 5 Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies represent my strongest release of the entire 1st round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. I have Memphis rolling to a blowout victory by double-digits tonight to extend this series. This game won't be nearly as competitive as the first four.

Memphis should arguably be up 3-1 in this series. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, then proceeded to go on the road to lose two games in Los Angeles by a combined 5 points. I have no doubt that Memphis is the better team, and they'll show it on the floor tonight as they take out their frustration on these Clippers.

Los Angeles is in a big letdown spot here. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Clippers are very comfortable with their position in this series. That will allow them to relax as a team knowing that they have a home contest in Game 6 in their hip pocket. This will easily be the worst effort of the series from L.A.

The Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 30-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday No-Brainer on Utah +8.5

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to lay it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Utah is a prideful team and one that will not quit even though they lost the first three games of this series. I also expect the San Antonio Spurs to relax knowing they have a 3-0 lead, which will allow Utah to cover this inflated number in a game I believe they can win outright.

Utah showed they could play with San Antonio in Game 3 as they trailed by just 2 at halftime before getting outscored by 10 points after intermission. The Jazz were just a 5.5-point underdog in that game, and now they are catching 8.5 points. That's 3 full points of value, and I'll gladly take advantage.

This play falls into a system that is 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Utah in Game 4 Monday.

15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -1.5

This series is over. It's just like the Los Angeles Lakers last year when they got swept by the Mavericks. The Lakers should have won the first two games of that series, but they lost both and did not really show up in Games 3 and 4.

The Mavericks should have won at least one of the first two games in Oklahoma City, but they lost both and were blown out in Game 3. Knowing that no team has ever come back to win a series from an 0-3 deficit, the Mavericks feel like they are already beaten and won't show up in Game 4.

The Thunder are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a huge mental edge heading into this one. They won the first two games of this series by a combined 4 points, so they'll be the team that is confident down the stretch once this one goes right down to the wire.

OKC already came into this series with a chip on their shoulder having lost to Dallas in five games in the Western Conference Finals last year. They aren't about to let up with a 2-0 lead, instead I fully expect them to go in for the kill tonight.

The Thunder have won the first two games despite poor shooting from Kevin Durant, who is just 15-of-44 from the field. You have to expect he's going to turn it on in Game 3, and I certainly like his mindset with the following comments.

"That's what it's all about. That's why I'm a winner. That's what I want to be labeled as, a guy that wins games," Durant said. "I know I'm not shooting the ball well but I'm just trying to do other things. I can't dwell on the last two games. I've just got to move on. Move on. We'll see what happens in the next game."

The road team is 34-15-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. The underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. The Mavericks are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games. Take Oklahoma City Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11.5

After losing by 15 points to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, I have the Utah Jazz putting up a much better fight in Game 2. This is a team that heads into the playoffs red-hot, and they're not about to let one bad performance slow them down.

Remember, Utah won five straight games heading into the postseason. That includes three victories over playoff contenders, including their all-important 100-88 win over Phoenix. This is a team that believes they can win when few outside their locker room think they can.

The Spurs are simply overvalued in this spot. San Antonio has only beaten Utah three times in their last 14 meetings by more than 10 points. Utah is simply a better team than they get credit for, while the Spurs are getting too much respect with their No. 1 seed.

This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers should be a bigger favorite in Game 2 tonight. That's evident by the way that this team dominated the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 en route to a 103-88 victory. L.A. finally put a full four quarters together, and I expect more of the same tonight as they are now in playoff mode.

Los Angeles simply has a huge mismatch inside in this series as the Nuggets don't have anyone to defend Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol consistently. Defensively, Bynum and Gasol make life miserable for these undersized Nuggets, as evident by Bynum's 10 blocks in Game 1. Dener shot 14-of-44 (32 percent) in the paint when Bynum was on the floor.

This is a very hungry team after getting swept in the playoffs last year by the Dallas Mavericks, so don't expect them to take the Nuggets lightly in Game 2 after a strong Game 1 performance.

The Lakers were nearly unbeatable at home this season while posting a 27-7 record at Staples Center. They have posted a 30-5 home record against the Nuggets in all meetings at Staples since 1996.

The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Los Angeles is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Denver. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are getting no respect in their Game 1 showdown with Denver. As only a 4.5-point home favorite, I'll pull the trigger on the Lakers. This is one of the best teams in the league when they want to be, and they own the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers are 29-5 against the Nuggets at home since 1996. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9.5

The Orlando Magic are getting no love from oddsmakers tonight because they don't have Dwight Howard. As a result, the Magic are showing tremendous value in Game 1.

The Magic have been playing without him long enough that they know how to. This team is getting written off heading into the playoffs because they don't have Howard, and I believe they use it as motivation.

The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Indiana is way overvalued here. Take Orlando Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8.5

Evan Turner of the Philadelphia 76ers has been calling out the Chicago Bulls as they're the team they wanted to face. I believe the Bulls make a statement Saturday with a double-digit blowout victory in Game 1.

The Bulls are 26-7 at home this season, while the 76ers are 16-17 on the road. That includes an 89-80 home victory for the Bulls in their most recent meeting on March 17th.

The 76ers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Bet Chicago Saturday.

25* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +4

The New York Knicks don't seem overly concerned about where they start their postseason regardless of the outcome of their regular-season finale. The Charlotte Bobcats, however, have plenty of incentive to win Thursday night to avoid capping an utterly miserable and potentially record-setting season of futility.

The Knicks will play either the Bulls or Heat in the first round of the playoffs pending the outcome of this game, and they really don't care who. "Right now it really doesn't matter," Knicks star Carmelo Anthony said. "Whoever we play, we'll have to start on the road anyway, so we just want to start just preparing for whether it's Chicago, whether it's Miami, just get ready to go."

New York clearly does not care about the outcome of this game considering they are resting Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire, Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries. Also, Jeremy Lin remains out with a knee injury. Without these six players, you could argue that Charlotte will actually have more talent on the floor tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (Charlotte) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Bobcats are the team with something to play for tonight, and that's why I'm backing them. Bet Charlotte Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8

The Toronto Raptors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Both the New Jersey Nets and the Raptors are struggling down the stretch, and this line has clearly been inflated. New Jersey has lost five in a row while Toronto has dropped four straight.

The Nets will be playing mostly players that are trying to prove that they belong in the league. They are also trying to play for a roster spot next season. There's no question that New Jersey will be playing inspired basketball tonight because of the players they'll have on the floor.

New Jersey is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Nets Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +4

While the Los Angeles Clippers lost to the Atlanta Hawks last night, they still have something to play for. Los Angeles can no longer win the Pacific Division, or the No. 3 seed in the West. However, the Clippers are still battling Memphis for the No. 4 seed.

That means home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs is at stake, which is huge. Los Angeles would get the No. 4 seed with either a win over New York tonight, or a Grizzlies loss to the Orlando Magic tomorrow night. The Clippers certainly want to just take care of business tonight and not leave it in Memphis' hands.

While New York mathematically is still alive for the No. 6 seed in the East, they realize their chances are slim to none. The Knicks would need to go 2-0 the rest of the way while the Magic would have to go 0-2. Fat chance considering the Magic play the Bobcats tonight and are a 14.5-point favorite. New York isn't nearly as concerned about winning this game as Los Angeles is.

The road team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. Blake Griffin has scored 65 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in two career games against the Knicks. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* Suns/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +5

The Phoenix Suns should not be a 5-point underdog to the Utah Jazz tonight. This is a game that I believe Phoenix wins outright. The Suns have the more veteran team with playoff experience that will shine through in this elimination game.

If Phoenix wins Tuesday, it would lock up the eighth seed with either a victory over West-leading San Antonio on Wednesday or a Utah loss versus Portland the following night. A Phoenix loss tonight and the Suns would be eliminated from the playoffs, giving the Jazz the No. 8 spot.

This is one team that the Suns clearly match up well against. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven meetings with Utah. That includes four straight wins at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Three of those four road victories came by double-digits.

Utah is 1-10 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Throw in the fact that the Suns are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings and we have a combined 42-2 System backing Phoenix. Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +9.5

The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. I believe this line has been inflated due to the fact that Philly can clinch a playoff spot with a win. New Jersey does not want to see them do it on their home floor, so I look for the Nets to put up a good fight here.

The Nets have shown they aren't going to quit by winning six of their last 13 games overall. They have played six straight playoff contenders, including Philadelphia twice. They split both meetings with the 76ers, and this team is certainly battle-tested right now.

Philly has not handled the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well at all. The 76ers have lost seven of their last 11 games overall. While Philadelphia looks to the future, New Jersey (22-42) will honor its past in its final home game in the Garden State after 35 years. They'll be moving to Brooklyn next year, so the Nets certainly want to finish a winner in their final home game in New Jersey.

The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet New Jersey Monday.

20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Phoenix -4

The Phoenix Suns would be the No. 8 seed if the season were to end today. They are tied with ninth-place Utah at 33-30, but own the tiebreaker. Obviously, tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets is huge for Phoenix.

The Suns have been great since the All-Star Break, posting a 19-10 record. That includes a 12-3 mark at home. They showed great resiliency two nights ago as they trailed the Clippers most of the way, but found a way to win 93-90 in the end. That win gives this team a lot of confidence going forward.

Phoenix has won 12 of their last 13 home games against Denver. The Nuggets only have one win in Phoenix since 2004, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Bet Phoenix Saturday.

25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198

I'm siding with the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game that is much more important for them than it is for the Los Angeles Clippers. While the Clippers are only worried about playoff positioning after already clinching their spot, the Suns are still trying to earn a spot in the postseason.

Phoenix is currently in ninth place in the Western Conference standings, just a half-game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot. To say this is a must-win would be an understatement. Phoenix has handled the pressure well, going 18-10 since the All-Star break, which includes an 11-3 home record.

The Clippers have basically been a punching bag for the Suns in recent years. Phoenix has won 13 of the last 15 meetings in this series. The Suns have won nine straight home meetings with the Clippers as well. They have not lost a home game against L.A. since 2007. Bet the Suns Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8.5

The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value tonight as an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Knicks. I believe the New York Knicks are in for a big letdown tonight after their 118-110 win over the Boston Celtics last night.

New Jersey has shown that they are going to play out their season. The Nets have gone a respectable 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They nearly beat the Miami Heat on Monday, losing 98-101 despite playing without Deron Williams.

New York was fired up to face Boston last night after having struggled mightily against the Celtics in the past. The Knicks hit a ridiculous 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range, and still only won by eight points. There's no way they shoot that well on consecutive nights.

The Knicks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. New Jersey is going to have no problem getting up to face their crosstown rivals. Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12

Following a very bad loss to the Washington Wizards on Monday, the Chicago Bulls will bounce back with a blowout victory over the NBA's worst team in the Charlotte Bobcats. Whether or not Derrick Rose plays tonight the Bulls are going to run away with this one.

Chicago still has a lot to play for as they want to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East. They also want the No. 1 overall seed in the league, so they're not about to take the Bobcats lightly. The Bulls took care of business in their last meeting with Charlotte on February 10th as they rolled to a 95-64 road victory.

The Bobcats are just 7-53 on the season and it's clear by watching them that they simply don't have the talent to compete in this league. Charlotte is 0-17 SU & 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Not only do they not have the talent, but the Bobcats have packed it in.

The Bulls are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Charlotte is 0-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season. The Bobcats are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing Chicago. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the "under the radar" teams that I have been following quite a bit to end the season. This team has proven that they aren't going to pack it in. The Cavaliers have several players right now who are trying to prove they belong in the NBA, while also auditioning for a spot on Cleveland's roster come next season.

The Cavaliers have gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Detroit has gone 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall, and the Pistons should not be this heavily favored tonight. Off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Chicago, Detroit is in for a letdown in this spot.

It was easy for the Pistons to get up emotionally to face the Bulls, but it won't be so easy to get mentally prepared to face the Cavaliers. It's simply human nature for a team to give it their all against another team that is going to be in the playoffs. It's also human nature for a team like the Pistons to not get up emotionally to face a squad like the Cavaliers, who will not be making the playoffs.

Detroit is 33-57 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1996. Cleveland is 10-1 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12.5

The Chicago Bulls should roll at home tonight over the lowly Washington Wizards. While the Wizards are 14-46 on the season, the Bulls are 46-14 and looking to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East as quickly as possible. Plus, they are also after the No. 1 overall seed in the NBA, so they'll certainly be motivated.

While Chicago has a lot still to play for, the Wizards appear to have packed it in. They lost at New York 65-103 on Friday, followed by an 89-98 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. The nature of both of those losses shows that the Wizards have basically quit trying.

Derrick Rose will be making his 3rd consecutive start for Chicago since returning from injury. He had 24 points and 9 assists against the Pistons last night, and I believe Rose will be even more comfortable while having an even bigger game tonight.

Chicago has won seven straight over Washington, and three of their last four victories have come by 14 points or more. The Wizards are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Washington is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southeast foes. Bet Chicago Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league this season. However, there comes a time when you just have to back them because you cannot pass up on the value they're showing. That's the case tonight as a 6.5-point home underdog to the New Orleans Hornets.

New Orleans has picked up some big wins of late, but that's the reason they are overvalued in this spot. The Hornets are still just 18-42 on the season, and they have no business being this heavily favored on the road. Off three straight home wins over the Kings, Jazz and Grizzlies, the Hornets are in for a huge letdown tonight.

The Hornets are 0-8 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. The Hornets are 2-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

The Milwaukee Bucks simply have to win tonight if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Milwaukee (29-30) is two games behind both New York and Philadelphia for the final two playoff spots in the East. There's no question Milwaukee will be motivated at home tonight against the Pacers.

Indiana can can almost relax now considering they are in great position to take the No. 3 seed in the East. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be 12th game in 18 days. They'll have a hard time keeping up with Milwaukee in this one.

The Bucks like to play at a fast pace since they traded for Monta Ellis. Milwaukee has scored 104-plus points in 16 of their last 21 games overall. The Bucks are 14-6 in their last 20 games and they're clearly one of the best teams in the league over the past month.

The Pacers are 11-28 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bucks are 31-17 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Bet Milwaukee Saturday.

15* Mavs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to just make the playoffs. Dallas (33-26) would be the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. The Mavericks are 2 games ahead of ninth-place Utah and 2.5 games ahead of tenth-place Phoenix.

There's no question the Mavericks will be motivated in each game they play from here on out, which should bring out the best of them. Dallas has won and covered two straight with a 110-100 home win over Sacramento on Tuesday, then a 112-103 road win at Golden state on Thursday.

I look for the Mavericks to continue playing well against Portland tonight. The Trail Blazers are coming off a 118-110 home victory over Golden State Wednesday, but this team is all but eliminated from the playoffs. They'll have a tough time getting up to play every game from here on out.

Portland has only won back-to-back games once since late January. This team has been playing terrible for quite some time, and ownership has basically decided to rebuild by trading away Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby. Making matters worse is the fact that leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury.

This has been a thrilling series this season, with both meetings going into overtime. However, the Blazers have no chance tonight without their best player. Aldridge has scored 58 points while grabbing 24 rebounds in their first two games against Dallas this season, and that's production that they simply cannot replace.

The Mavericks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blazers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Dallas is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 1-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, failing to cover 93% of the time. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12

The Cleveland Cavaliers represent the best underdog for the entire 2011-12 season Friday. Cleveland continues to fight despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and they are catching way too many points here tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

The betting public has not wanted to back Cleveland since PG Kyrie Irving went out with an injury. But the Cavaliers have been a money-making machine since, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They won twice outright, lost twice in overtime and lost by 9 at Milwaukee.

Cleveland has a bunch of players right now that are fighting to prove that they belong in the NBA, and they are auditioning for jobs next season. Lester Hudson is the perfect example, averaging 23.3 points in his last four games, including an incredible 12.5 points in the fourth quarter.

The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana is 2-1 against Cleveland this season, but both of their wins came in overtime. Cleveland beat Indiana 98-87 on February 15th. This is a home-and-home situation as the Pacers beat the Cavs 104-98 (OT) on Wednesday.

I almost always take the team that lost the first of a home-and-home situation in their second game. That's because the winning team has a hard time getting up emotionally to beat a team that they just beat a day or two ago. Meanwhile, the team that lost the first game is out for revenge and has no trouble getting motivated.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Pacers. Bet Cleveland Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are very hungry for a win tonight following rare back-to-back losses heading in. The Spurs lost at Utah 84-91 on Monday mainly because they sat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli for rest. San Antonio lost 84-98 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Perhaps they didn't get up for that game since Kobe Bryant wasn't playing.

One thing is for certain, the Grizzlies have the Spurs' full attention tonight. San Antonio has not lost three in a row all season, and they're not about to start Thursday. Memphis has been playing well of late, but they are overvalued in this spot.

Remember, San Antonio lost to Memphis in the first round of the playoffs last season, so the Spurs want revenge. The Spurs have gotten plenty of revenge thus far, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Memphis this season. They want to stick the dagger in and twist it tonight by sweeping the Grizzlies 4-0.

The Spurs are 23-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. The Grizzlies are 13-16 on the road this year. San Antonio is scoring 104.2 points/game at home, while Memphis is putting up a mere 91.8 points/game on the road.

The Grizzlies are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* Heat/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls have been the best team in the league this season despite playing without Derrick Rose for much of it. The Bulls are 44-14 this season, including 16-7 without Rose, to grab ahold of the No. 1 seed in the East and in the NBA.

Rose is expected to return tonight from an ankle injury, so getting the Bulls as a mere 1.5-point home favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Chicago has 82 consecutive home sellouts at the United Center, and these fans will be rocking as a Bulls win would all but assure them of the No. 1 seed in the East.

Miami has not been playing well of late, and it's not just going to change tonight against the best team in the NBA. The Heat lost 115-107 at home to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday, allowing them to shoot 60.6 percent from the floor. In the last 10 games, the Heat have yielded an average of 95.8 points on 47.3 percent shooting, the latter notably higher than their season mark of 43.2 percent.

Chicago is 23-6 at hom this season, while Miami is just 16-12 on the road. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, failing to cover the spread 88% of the time. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with Miami. Take Chicago Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 8.5 points at home against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are the team in the playoff hunt, the Cavaliers have showed no signs of packing it in. I look for Cleveland to give Indiana all they can handle.

The Cavaliers do have some injury concerns right now with Kyrie Irving out and Anderson Varejao questionable, but they have actually been playing better without Irving. Many players are getting a chance to prove that they belong in the league, and they are making the most of their opportunities.

Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes a road win at Toronto and a 13-point home victory over the Bobcats. They also gave the Bucks and Nets all they could handle on the road in losing efforts. Guard Lester Hudson is one player taking advantage of the extra playing time, averaging 24.7 points in his last three games.

The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana won the first meeting on December 30th at home by a final of 98-91 in overtime. Cleveland would get their revenge with a 98-87 home victory on February 14th. The home team has won four of the last five, and I look for the home dominance to continue tonight.

Indiana is 0-11 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season, losing by an average score of 88.8 to 95.1 in this spot. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends make for an 18-0 system backin Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. While I have been riding the Bucks a lot lately against some of the weaker competition in this league, and they have been playing well, now is the time to fade them.

The Bucks are 19-4 against teams below .500 this season, but just 9-24 against teams above .500. After losing three of their last four, the Thunder are a very inspired team right now. They will be going after Milwaukee with everything they have tonight, especially considering they are tied with San Antonio for the No. 1 seed in the West.

Milwaukee is 45-71 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cleveland Cavaliers since Kyrie Irving went down with an injury. As a result, Cleveland is showing great value today against the New Jersey Nets, who should not be favored by 7.5 against any team in this league. I don't see the Nets being too motivated to play the Cavaliers tonight, which will make it tough for them to cover this large number.

Because their lines have been inflated of late, the Cavaliers have covered two straight with a 9-point loss at red-hot Milwaukee as a 12.5-point underdog, and an 84-80 outright win at Toronto as a 7-point dog. I can see them winning this game outright as well.

While the Cavaliers are without Irving, they have actually had other players step up in a big way. Antawn Jamison poured in 25 points against the Raptors, and Lester Hudson came off the bench to score 23 points. They have several players that are ready to take advantage of their opportunities.

The Nets are 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 0-10 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These three trends make for a 25-1 (96%) System backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +2

This line screams take Indiana as a small home favorite after their huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I'm going the other way. Off such a huge win, the Pacers are in for a big letdown tonight against the Boston Celtics. I expect the Celtics to win this one going away.

Indiana is a very tired team now. The Pacers are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Thunder last night, so they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back. Plus, this will be Indiana's 8th game in 11 days! Fatigue will be a factor for the Pacers tonight.

Off consecutive losses to two of the best teams in the league in the Spurs and Bulls, and trailing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Celtics will be extremely motivated for a win here. I look for Boston to put forth one of their best efforts of the season.

Indiana is 0-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Take this combined 19-0 system backing Boston straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Friday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Golden State Warriors +8

The Golden State Warriors continue to fight despite knowing they are not going to make the playoffs this season. They are trying to play the role of spoiler, and they are giving some of the best teams in the league a run for their money of late. I look for them to give the Utah Jazz all they can handle tonight.

The Warriors are a very profitable 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Warriors have had Utah's number in recent meetings, winning three of the last five by 15, 7 and 18 points. Utah's two victories over Golden State during this stretch came by finals of 88-87 and 99-92 (OT).

Utah is 1-9 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Utah is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as an 8.5-point underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Detroit has been undervalued for months, and that's certainly the case again tonight. Any time Atlanta is this heavy of a favorite, I'm going to look to fade them if it's the right opponent.

Detroit is 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The betting public has not really been willing to back the Pistons, either, which is why they continually show great value. They have won five of their last six overall, with their only loss coming at Chicago during this stretch.

These teams have played in two very heated battles this season. Atlanta won the first meeting 107-101 in overtime on January 27th, but Detroit would have their revenge with an 86-85 win over the Hawks on March 9th. I believe this game will go right down to the wire as well.

The Hawks are 5-18 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses for just the second time this season. They haven't lost three straight once this year. I expect the Thunder to bounce back in a big way with an inspired performance tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana is certainly playing well of late, but their run comes to an abrupt halt tonight. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be their 7th game in 10 days. That doesn't bode well for them considering the Thunder like to push the pace, which will ware down these Indiana players by the fourth quarter.

The Thunder are 55-25-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. As you can see by this trend, this team has unbelievable resiliency and knows how to bounce back. OKC is 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +7.5

The Chicago Bulls are likely to be without Derrick Rose once again tonight as he nurses a sore groin. He is listed as doubtful tonight, and from his comments, it appears there's almost no way he plays. Even if he does, I still like Boston to cover this inflated number.

Playing without Rose is finally starting to catch up to the Bulls, who have lost two straight for the first time all season. Meanwhile, Boston is finally starting to get healthy as they just got Ray Allen back last night. They gave San Antonio all they could handle, eventually falling 86-87.

Due to getting healthy, the Celtics are in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. Boston is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, winning four road games during this stretch. The Bulls were destroyed by the Thunder 78-92 on Sunday despite outscoring Oklahoma City 27-12 in the 4th quarter. They followed that up with a 93-99 home loss to Houston on Monday.

The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Boston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Boston Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +8.5

The New Jersey Nets are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who have all but played themselves out of the Western Conference playoff race over the last few months. I like to the Nets to cover this big number with ease tonight.

New Jersey is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 16-point home win over Indiana, and two road victories over Golden State and Sacramento. Their lone loss was a 4-point setback to the Los Angeles Lakers last night as they nearly pulled off the upset in Staples Center.

Portland hasn't won back-to-back games since late January, having alternated decisions in its last nine contests to put the club in a tough position heading into the final weeks of the season. Ownership really showed that they were not playing for this season, rather rebuilding for next when they decided to trade Gerald Wallace to New Jersey before the trade deadline.

Look for Wallace to have a big game against his former team tonight, and for the Blazers to continue to struggle. The Blazers have just one win by more than 6 points over their last 10 games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6

The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz are each fighting for their playoff lives right now. Though Phoenix has won 15 of 22, it currently sits 10th in the West. However, the Suns are one-half game behind ninth-place Utah (28-26) and 1 1/2 back of Houston, which owns the eighth and final playoff spot.

I like the way Phoenix has been playing for the last couple months, and I believe they are simply catching too many points tonight against a banged-up Jazz bunch. Utah is without starting SG Raja Bell, and they may also be without starting PG Devin Harris, who is listed as questionable after leaving their last game with an ankle injury.

The main reason I am backing the Suns tonight is because it's simply a match-up nightmare for Utah. Phoenix has absolutely owned this series over the last few seasons, and I don't see that changing here. The Suns have won six straight over Utah, which includes five wins by 9 points or more. They should not be the underdog in this one.

The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 16-34 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. Bet Phoenix Wednesday.

15* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +9.5

I have been fading the Los Angeles Lakers quite a bit lately, and with great success. I got recent covers on the Blazers, Grizzlies and Warriors while going against the Lakers at home. Los Angeles just has a knack for playing to the level of their competition, and they rarely blow out teams that they are supposed to.

New Jersey is playing very well of late, and they'll be chomping at the bit to face the Lakers in Staples Center tonight. That's a big reason why the Lakers struggle against the spread at home is because they always get the opposing team's best shot. The Nets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Indiana 100-84 at home before going on the road to knock off the Warriors and Kings.

The Lakers are in a huge look-ahead spot tonight. They lead the Pacific Division by just one game over the Los Angeles Clippers, which would mean they'd be the No. 3 seed if the season were to end today. Guess who the Lakers play tomorrow night? The Clippers, which is a team they will be much more interested in facing than the Nets.

Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. L.A. is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These five trends make for a 38-2 (95%) system backing New Jersey. Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7

This is a huge letdown spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis caught Oklahoma City playing the second of a back-to-back last night and took advantage, beating the Thunder 94-88 on the road. After such a huge win over the No. 1 seed in the West, and playing the second of a back-to-back, there is a very good chance the Grizzlies come out flat tonight.

Another reason I believe they will come out flat is because this is a look-ahead game as well. Memphis will be playing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks tomorrow night, which is a game they will be much more interested in than this one with the Warriors tonight.

While the Warriors have lost five straight, four of those losses came by 8 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer. Golden State has lost their first three meetings of the season with the Grizzlies, though two of those losses came by a single point each. That makes the Warriors the more motivated team tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep.

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point underdog to the Toronto Raptors. This is a battle between two teams that aren't going to make the playoffs, and as a result it's going to be hard for Toronto to be motivated enough to win this game by double-digits.

While Charlotte continues to lose, they have at least been more competitive of late to show that they have not completely packed it in. The Bobcats have lost three of their last four games by 7 points or less, and they just took Detroit to overtime on the road last time out. The Bobcats have had two days' rest since that loss to the Pistons.

Toronto should not be laying 9 points to any team in this league. While they have been better than the Bobcats this season, the Raptors still aren't that good at 18-35. Plus, the Bobcats have their number, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings dating back to 2010.

The Raptors are 4-17 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite since 1996. Toronto is 0-10 ATS in home games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing great value as a double-digit underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday. I almost always go against the Lakers when they're favored by double-digits, and that's certainly the case today.

Los Angeles had a bad habit of playing to their competition. They can beat the best teams in the league, but they can also lose to the worst. That was evident earlier this season as they lost to the Pistons and Wizards on back-to-back nights.

The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been rolling ever since trading for Monte Ellis. Getting them as a mere 2.5-point favorite tonight over Memphis is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll take advantage.

The Bucks are 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 121-84 blowout win at Cleveland, which allowed them to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. That will be to their benefit tonight against a Memphis team that took Houston down to the wire last night, but eventually lost 89-98.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. I'll take these two 100% systems backing the Bucks straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Milwaukee Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -11.5

The Chicago Bulls have not missed a beat with Derrick Rose out of the line-up. The Bulls, who again expect to be without Rose, look to win their 14th straight over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night at the United Center. Chicago (41-11) is second in the NBA in scoring defense at 88.9 points per game, which is a big reason why they are 13-5 without Rose this season.

Detroit (18-32) is one of the league's lowest-scoring teams at 89.9 per game. In their most recent meeting Jan. 9, Chicago limited the Pistons to 39.4 percent shooting in a 92-68 home win. The Bulls also won at Detroit 99-83 five days earlier and have taken 13 straight in the series since Dec. 23, 2008.

Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they could be without starting guard Rodney Stuckey and backup Ben Gordon due to injuries. Stuckey, who hurt his left hamstring Wednesday, averages a team-best 16.1 points while Gordon averages 12.3. Stuckey is really the only reason this team has remained somewhat competitive, and without him they have no chance of keeping this one close.

Detroit has lost 11 straight in Chicago, with the last four defeats coming by an average of 20.0 points. The Pistons are only averaging 79.5 points/game in their last four contests, which doesn't bode well for them against the league's second-best defense. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Chicago Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8.5

While the Washington Wizards are among the league's worst teams again this season, this squad continues to fight. They only have 11 wins on the season, but the Wizards have been a much more competitive team since trading for Nene.

It hasn't shown in the win column as the Wizards are 0-5 in their last five games, but four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. Plus, four of those losses were against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They get another playoff team tonight in Philadelphia, and I fully expect Washington to give the 76ers a run for their money.

Philly is just 10-12 SU & 10-12 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to win by 9 points or more is simply asking too much tonight. Washington is 67-38 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Lakers have certainly been in the media a lot lately due to some recent benchings of their star players. Kobe Bryant was benched in their 96-102 home loss to Memphis Sunday, but he responded well by going off for 30 points in a 104-101 victory at Golden State Tuesday. Bryant hit two clutch jumpers over the final 1:04 to give his team the win.

Andrew Bynum was benched for an ill-advised 3-pointer he shot near the end of the 3rd quarter in that win over the Warriors. He sat out the final nine minutes of the game, and didn't handle the benching will in the media. After Kobe led by example and responded with a great game against Golden State, I believe Bynum will follow in his footsteps and have a monster night against the Thunder to lead the Lakers to victory.

This is a huge game for L.A. to prove to Oklahoma City that they aren't going anywhere, and that they are still the team to beat in the West. Kobe and the Lakers certainly respond well in these "big" games. They just beat Miami earlier this month 93-83, and they are 3-0 against Dallas this season, the team that swept them in the playoffs last year. Look for L.A. to revenge their 100-85 road loss at Oklahoma City just before the All-Star Break.

The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Lakers Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on Dallas +8

Miami already had its "revenge game" against the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, who beat the Heat in the NBA Finals last year. The Heat would get their payback with a 105-94 road victory in Dallas on Christmas Day. While Miami certainly wants to beat Dallas again, they won't be as motivated as they were when they played on Christmas.

This line is simply inflated, and I don't see any way the Heat win this game by more than 8 points with the way they've been playing of late. Through March 1st, Miami was the highest-scoring team in the NBA at 103.8 points per game. Since then, the Heat are just 25th in the league at 93.1 points per game. Every team behind them is out of the playoff picture.

Miami is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to Oklahoma City and Indiana by a combined 31 points. They just aren't playing well right now, and making matters worse is the fact that Lebron James just suffered a dislocated ring finger on his non-shooting hand. It happened against the Pacers, and it clearly affected him as he caught almost every pass with his right hand.

Dallas really, really needs this win tonight. The Mavericks are just two games ahead of ninth-place Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. That means they are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs if they don't get their act together quick. Dallas has done a good job of that with back-to-back wins over Houston, and they now come into this game well-rested having played just two games over the last five days.

The Mavericks are a sensational 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games as a road underdog. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last four trends make for a perfect 34-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Wizards/Pacers NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Washington +10.5

The Washington Wizards are showing great value tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. The biggest reason I'm on Washington is due to the status of the Pacers, who have to be extremely tired right now. Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 6th game in 8 days.

The Pacers started to show signs of fatigue last night when they just didn't have it in an 84-100 loss at lowly New Jersey. They committed 18 turnovers, and gave up 100-plus points for the third time in four games. Indiana has given up 100 or more just 12 times, but seven of those came in its last 13 contests. The Pacers are 2-10 when surrendering triple digits.

While Washington is 0-4 since trading for Nene, there's no denying that they have been playing much better basketball. Three of those losses came by three points or fewer, and the Wizards are going to be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's nice to see that this team is still fighting, which is what I expect them to continue doing here.

This play falls into a system that is 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (INDIANA) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Pacers are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a 3.5-point favorite tonight over the Utah Jazz. Utah is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their impressive play of late. But now is the time to fade Utah as the value is clearly no longer with them.

Utah has won seven of their last eight, but this is a tired team right now. The Jazz will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, and one of those contests included a four-overtime game against Atlanta. I like the way the Celtics are playing of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. What's most impressive is that four of those five games were on the road.

The Jazz are just 8-17 on the road this season, while the Celtics are 17-8 at home. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing Boston. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Magic/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic are showing great value as just a 2-point favorite against the short-handed New York Knicks tonight. Orlando is well-rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. They come in the fresher team, and the healthier squad as well.

The Knicks will be playing without Amar'e Stoudemire (back), Jeremy Lin (knee), Jared Jeffries (knee), and Bill Walker (elbow). Not to mention, Carmelo Anthony is banged up with a groin injury. He's expected to play tonight, but won't be at full strength.

The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Magic are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning all three by 10 points or more. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

Milwaukee had won six straight before losing three of their last four to playoff teams in Boston, Indiana and New York. If the Bucks want to be a playoff team, they know they cannot afford to lose many more games down the stretch as they trail the Knicks by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.

I believe the Bucks get back on track tonight and buckle down at home against the Atlanta Hawks. I certainly like the way this team is playing with the addition of Monte Ellis. They now have numerous guards that can penetrate the lane and either score themselves, or find open teammates. Milwaukee has been scoring at will, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 11.

Atlanta has won four straight coming in. With a game against the East-leading Chicago Bulls lined up for tomorrow, this is a huge letdown spot for the Hawks. They are feeling good about their four-overtime victory over Utah a couple nights ago, which was the first 4 OT game since 1997. Off such a historical accomplishment, it'd be easy to see Atlanta come out flat here. Plus, the Bucks want revenge from two 5-point losses to the Hawks this season, so they'll be the more motivated team.

Atlanta is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 120 points or more. The Hawks are 14-28 ATS in their last 42 following 2 or more consecutive wins. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks +6

The Milwaukee Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are simply catching too many points tonight against the overrated New York Knicks. The Bucks are in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Knicks for the eighth and final playoff spot. They certainly want this game more than most.

Milwaukee has won seven of their last nine games overall. Better yet, the Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests. Since trading for Monte Ellis, this has been a completely different team. The Bucks are scoring at will now, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

New York is playing well of late too, winning six of their last seven. However, this team has played a very easy schedule during this stretch, and they have not fared well recently against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU & a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New York.

The Knicks are 1-10 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. The Bucks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the fact that the Bucks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks, and we have a combined 26-1 (96%) system backing Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +7

I'm always looking to fade the Los Angeles Lakers when they're getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. While this team has been great at home this year, they should not be favored by seven points over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is 25-6 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. This is a deep team that handles these situations very well. The Lakers are 16-31 ATS in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +13

The Chicago Bulls are getting way too much love tonight. Toronto wants this game more, and as a result they'll easily stay within this 13-point spread, likely winning outright.

These teams just played three days ago on March 21st with the Bulls winning 94-82 despite the Raptors leading almost the entire way. Toronto blew it late, and now they want revenge. Chicago will be playing with Derrick Rose once again, and they cannot possibly cover this inflated number.

The Raptors are a very profitable 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Raptors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +9

Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are this big of a favorite, I look to fade them. I did so with success just a few games back. They were an 11-point home favorite against Utah, but lost 99-103 less than a week ago on March 18th.

This is a team that I follow closely. I know that the Lakers always seem to play to their competition. They can look great against the best teams in the league, but they can also look terrible against some of the worst teams in the game. Recent examples of that are upset losses to Detroit and Washington in consecutive nights. They also lost to Utah and Houston in back-to-back games as favorites.

Portland has been going through a tough stretch of late, which has them undervalued right now. I still believe this team has better talent than over half of the teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before they figure it out. Portland took a step in the right direction last night with a 97-93 home victory over Memphis. They'll be motivated to see if they can beat the Lakers here tonight.

The Lakers are 6-15 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. Portland is 20-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bet Portland Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be this big of an underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight in a game I believe they can win outright. Cleveland will be the more motivated team due to events leading up to this game. Atlanta is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Atlanta has won six straight over Cleveland, including a 103-87 victory on March 18th just three nights ago. With a rematch occurring in such a short amount of time, I have no doubt that the Cavaliers are going to be hungry for payback. Look for Atlanta to be 'disinterested' when they take the floor after winning six in a row over Cleveland.

This play falls into a system that is 22-6 (78.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4

The Portland Trail Blazers should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the Milwaukee Bucks. A big reason this line is so small is because of Portland's recent struggles. Another reason is that Milwaukee added Monte Ellis recently. The value is to the point where pulling the trigger on Portland is the only move tonight.

The Blazers have already started playing better since firing head coach Nate McMillan and replacing him with interim coach Kaleb Canales. They went on the road and beat the Chicago Bulls 100-89 before going on the road to lose to the Oklahoma City Thunder. After facing two of the league's best teams, the Bucks will seem like a cake walk tonight.

Milwaukee is playing very well recently, winners of five straight. That's why oddsmakers are giving the Bucks so much respect tonight. However, all five of those wins came against teams with losing records. They beat New York, Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland and Golden State during this stretch. I'm not buying that this is a lot better team just because they added Ellis.

The Bucks have dropped eight of nine to the Blazers, including five straight on the road by 12.6 points per contest. Milwaukee is 1-13 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference foes. Milwaukee is 43-70 ATS in their last 113 after 3 or more consecutive wins. The Blazers are 16-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Take Portland Tuesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing some of their best value of the season Monday as a 9-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers. The betting public refuses to back this team with any regularity because they own the league's worst record. Now is the time to ride Charlotte.

The Bobcats have finally gotten healthy, which means they are a much better team than they were in the first half. Charlotte has quietly gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have covered two in a row with impressive showings at Dallas (96-101 loss) and versus Toronto (107-103 victory).

Philly is not playing well right now as they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They did play some tough games during this stretch, but they were not even really competitive. The 76ers lost at Indiana 94-111, versus Miami 78-84, and at Chicago 80-89. After playing three of the best teams in the East, the 76ers are going to have a hard time getting up for Charlotte mentally.

The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the 76ers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 in this series. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11

I always look to fade the Los Angeles Lakers whenever they are favored by double-digits. They are notorious for playing down to their competition, which means it is very tough for them to blow out teams that they are supposed to.

Utah has been playing well lately as they have won three of their last four games, including back-to-back wins over the Timberwolves and Warriors. The Lakers have only beaten the Jazz by more than 11 points once in their last five meetings.

The Lakers are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The Jazz are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. L.A. is 17-42 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Jazz Sunday.

15* Warriors/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

The Golden State Warriors are one of the most underrate teams I've ever seen. They are playing their best basketball of the season, yet they still get no respect. They should not be a 7-point underdog to the Utah Jazz today.

These two teams have played twice this season. Utah won in Golden State by a single point, but the Warriors would have their revenge with an 18-point victory at Utah. The third meeting between these teams will come down to the wire, and I'll take the dog every time.

The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes. The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Warriors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5

Any time the Lakers are this heavy of a favorite, I usually look to fade. They always play down to their competition. Minnesota wants revenge from two losses against the Lakers in this head-to-head series to start the season.

The Lakers will be disinterested after already beating the Timberwolves twice. Minnesota will be the more motivated team, which makes them a great play tonight.

Minnesota is 24-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 14-27 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder +1

Any time you can get the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog, it's probably worth pulling the trigger. I believe that's especially the case tonight against the overmatched Denver Nuggets. The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league to back following a loss.

The Thunder are 32-10 on the season as they own the best record in the Western Conference. They have only lost back-to-back games once all season, which really shows the character of this team. Coming off a 103-104 home loss to Houston two nights ago, the Thunder are going to be out for blood tonight.

Oklahoma City is 52-24-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a S.U. loss. The Thunder are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Nuggets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. OKC is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games off a home loss. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +4.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. This team is undervalued right now due to the fact that they just traded Monte Ellis to the Milwaukee Bucks. They didn't have him last night, and they won 115-89 at Sacramento.

I don't believe the loss of Ellis will hurt this team one bit. They still have three stud guards in Stephon Curry, Klay Thompson and Nate Robinson, so they have plenty of depth at the position. Adding a big man like Andrew Bogut is precisely what they needed.

The Warriors are in a great state of mind right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They beat the defending champion Mavericks 111-87, followed by a huge road win at the Los Angeles Clippers 97-93, and then that 26-point victory at Sacramento last night. Their confidence is at an all-time high right now.

The Celtics are just 6-11 on the road this season where they are scoring 88.6 points/game. Boston is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are once again showing amazing value tonight against the Houston Rockets. Because the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, the betting public continues to stay off them. Now is the time to hop on board with this kind of value folks.

I'm not going to make an argument that Charlotte is a great team, because they are not. But the Bobcats were beat up with injuries in the first half, and they are just now finally starting to get healthy. I have no doubt they'll be more competitive from here on out given their health.

Houston is in a huge letdown spot tonight, plus they will be the more tired team. The Rockets are coming off a big 1-point road win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. After playing and defeating the top team in the West, the Rockets will have a hard time getting motivated to face the team with the worst record in the league tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (HOUSTON) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Not only are they tired, but the Rockets could be without two of their best players in Kyle Lowry & Kevin Martin, who are each listed as questionable. Take Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +3

Golden State is playing their best basketball of the season right now. As an underdog against the lowly Sacramento Kings (14-27) tonight, I'll pull the trigger on the Warriors once again. I had them Sunday night in a 97-93 outright road win over the Clippers as a 7-point underdog as well.

That win over the Clippers was their second impressive victory in a row. They had just beaten the defending champion Dallas Mavericks 111-87 the night before. Those two wins right there show that the Warriors are capable of playing with just about anyone. Now healthy with Curry, Ellis, and Lee in full force, this is a dangerous team the rest of the way.

This play falls into a system that is 63-33 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SACRAMENTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I like the Milwaukee Bucks quite a bit tonight against the New Jersey Nets. The Bucks are playing much better of late, winning three of their last four games overall while going 4-0 ATS in the process. Their lone loss was a 104-106 setback to the Chicago Bulls, one of the best teams in the league.

One of the biggest reasons I have for this play is the fact that Deron Williams is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. Without Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) on the floor, the Nets are arguably the worst team in the league. They are already without second-leading scorer Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG) as well.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Milwaukee is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New Jersey dating back to 2009. Even more impressive is the fact that they've won all nine of those games by 7 points or more, and seven by double-digits. Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* Warriors/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

Golden State is showing great value Sunday as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors are coming off an emphatic 111-87 win over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, giving them the confidence they need to beat anyone in this league.

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Golden State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are primed to give the Miami Heat a run for their money tonight. Indiana is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season, and they're fully capable of pulling off this upset tonight.

Having not played since a 96-101 home loss to Atlanta on March 6th, the Pacers will be chomping at the bit to return to game action tonight. They have had three days off so they'll be rested and better prepared to take on the Heat.

Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat have already beaten the Pacers twice this season, so I could see them being disinterested here, which will likely lead to a letdown. Take Indiana Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +3

The Charlotte Bobcats are playing much better of late now that they have finally started to get healthy. The Bobcats are undervalued because they own the league's worst record, but they are going to be a very profitable bet at the pay window going forward because of it.

Charlotte is a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost to the Nets 101-104 as a 4.5 points underdog, beat the Magic 100-84 as a 9-point dog, and lost to the Jazz 93-99 as a 7-point dog. After just losing to New Jersey recently, there's no question that Charlotte is going to be motivated for revenge, while the Nets will be disinterested tonight.

The Nets are 2-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. New Jersey is 3-13 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 2-12 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, New Jersey has a tough time getting up to play teams like Charlotte. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.

15* Mavericks/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks have simply owned the Phoenix Suns over the last few years. I look for more of the same tonight against a Phoenix team that is nowhere near as good as it was over the last decade. Phoenix is down, while Dallas remains a title contender as they look to repeat.

Dallas is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Phoenix. If that's not domination, I don't know what is. They have won all eight games by 6 points or more as well, so it's not like these contests have been all that close. This is simply a tough match-up for the Suns, and that's not going to change tonight.

Phoenix played a hard-fought game last night at Oklahoma City, falling by a final of 104-115. Meanwhile, Dallas had the night off, so there's no question the Mavericks will be the fresher team heading into this one. Phoenix could still be deflated from blowing a double-digit lead last night.

The Suns are 1-11 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 8-26 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +1

The Portland Trail Blazers want revenge from a 122-110 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves just four nights ago on March 3rd. There's no question that the Blazers are going to be the more motivated team in this spot.

Not only will the Timberwolves have a hard time getting up for this game because they just beat the Blazers, they may also be looking ahead to their next game. Minnesota just lost to the Los Angeles Lakers on February 29th, but they'll have their chance for revenge with the Lakers coming up next on Friday. Portland is surely going to be in a better mental state of mind coming into this one.

Portland has won eight straight in Minnesota since March 25, 2007, winning by an average of 17.2 points in its last five visits. The Timberwolves win in Portland a few nights ago was a rarity in this series to say the least. The Blazers are now 16-1 in their last 17 meetings with Minnesota overall.

The Blazers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest. The Timberwolves are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Blazers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Minnesota. Take Portland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5

The Houston Rockets are favored for a reason here tonight. Oddsmakers believe they are going to get back on track, and so do I. They face the perfect team to do so in the lowly Toronto Raptors, who are just 12-26 on the season.

Houston has lost four straight games, so there's no question they are hungry to get back on track with a win tonight. Those four losses came on the the road to Utah and Boston, and at home to Denver and the LA Clippers. After playing such a tough schedule during this stretch, the Rockets will enjoy getting this opportunity to face overmatched Toronto.

The Rockets are 17-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less since 1996. Houston is 50-19 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Rockets are 29-10 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. As you can see, this team is a great bet when trying to bounce back from multiple losses. Houston is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers should not be an underdog at home to the Miami Heat. Los Angeles is going to approach this game like its the NBA Finals. Kobe Bryant has lost five straight games against Lebron James, and there's no question it's eating at him. He changes that today with a victory over the Heat.

Ever since Kobe came out in public and backed up Pau Gasol in terms of trade talks, the Lakers have been rolling. L.A. is 4-1 in their last five games overall during this stretch, and their lone loss came at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best record in the West, so that's no surprise.

Miami is 4-16 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. L.A. is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season. Bet Los Angeles Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +9.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value Saturday as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Orlando Magic. I like the Bucks' state of mind heading into this game, and believe they will be determined enough to not only cover this spread, but likely win the game outright.

Milwaukee is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS against Orlando this season, with all three losses coming by 9 points or less. They are 0-3 despite having held a lead in the 4th quarter of every single game. The Bucks have simply given all three games away down the stretch, so there's no question it has left a sour taste in their mouths.

While Milwaukee will come out fired up and ready to play to get revenge, Orlando is likely to come out flat after having already beaten this team three times. Plus, the Magic are deflated from their 102-105 home loss to Oklahoma City on National TV Thursday. They held a double-digit lead going into the 4th quarter and managed to blow it. Look for them to suffer a 'hangover' effect here.

The Magic are 13-28 ATS in their last 41 games off a close home loss by 3 points or less. Milwaukee is 28-14 ATS in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 8-24 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Saturday.

15* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +10.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. The Los Angeles Lakers always seem to play to their competition, and it's usually a good bet to fade them whenever they are a double-digit favorite against a team they are "supposed" to dominate.

While Sacramento is just 12-23 this season, they are clearly improved from a year ago. The biggest reason for their poor record has been a brutal schedule that has featured 21 road games and only 14 home games. It's safe to say that this team is battle-tested on the road and will not be phased by the Lakers tonight.

Since the end of January, the Kings have been one of the most profitable teams in the league at the pay window. Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, losing by double-digits just three times during this stretch. Ten of those 16 games were on the road as well.

The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Sacramento is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Lakers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games as a favorite of 10 or more. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are clearly going to be showing great value throughout the second half of the season. They were clearly the worst team in the first half, which is what will keep the betting public off of them. As a result, the Bobcats should show a nice profit at the pay window for weeks to come.

I especially like Charlotte in this spot tonight against a deflated San Antonio Spurs team. The Spurs are coming off a tough home loss to the Chicago Bulls last time out. They wanted that game pretty badly to prove that they were among the NBA's elite. I have a hard time seeing them coming back motivated to face the team with the league's worst record tonight.

One of the biggest reason for the Bobcats' struggles in the first half was injuries. Charlotte just couldn't seem to get healthy, but they finally have most of their players back heading into the second half. Key players like Corey Maggette, Gerald Henderson and D.J. Augustin have all returned from injury. All three of those guys are starters, so they're obviously important.

This play falls into a system that is 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.

The Spurs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. The Bobcats are 41-22 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1996. Bet Charlotte Friday.

20* Thunder/Magic TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the Western Conference, hands down. Any time they face a team from the East, unless it's the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls, the Thunder should be at least a 4-point favorite on the road. They basically just have to win this game to cover this small spread, and that's precisely what I expect them to do.

With last night's impressive win at Philadelphia, the Thunder have improved to 28-7 on the season. They are simply rolling right now, winners of six straight overall, all by 4 points or more. Orlando is a solid team at 23-13 this season, but they're not on the same level as Oklahoma City.

This is a good match-up for the Thunder. They have Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, one of the best shot blockers in the league, inside to defend Dwight Howard. Orlando doesn't have anybody that can stay with Russell Westbrook, and they certainly do not have an answer defensively for Kevin Durant. OKC won their first meeting with Orlando this season 97-89 behind 30 points from Durant. They held Howard to just 11 points.

The Magic are 0-8 ATS after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Thunder Thursday.