Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Raptors/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

James Harden and the Houston Rockets are wearing down.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost in overtime at home to the Nets, needed overtime to beat the Lakers at home, lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and needed some last-second heroics to beat the Knicks on the road.  It hasn’t been a good look for them. 

Now the Rockets have to face one of the top teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors tonight.  This is a Raptors team that is getting healthy as they should have everyone available except Jonas Valanciunas tonight.  And it’s rare that they’ve been this healthy. 

The same cannot be said for the Rockets, who haven’t gotten much help outside James Harden, and he’s running on fumes now.  Clint Capela remains out, and Chris Paul is questionable to return tonight.  Whether he does or not, I like the Raptors because Paul won’t play much even if he does finally make his return. 

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets, which includes 129-113 and 115-102 upsets on the road in their two trips to Houston during this span.  Houston is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4 

I always like fading teams after playing the Golden State Warriors.  And that’s the unfavorable spot the Wizards are in tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and it’s not a hangover/letdown spot after facing the Warriors last night.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

This is a Magic team that’s highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games overall.  But three of those losses were by 5 points or fewer, plus a 10-point loss to Milwaukee as 10-point dogs when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have recent upset home wins over Boston and Houston as well. 

The Wizards are just 6-18 SU & 6-18 ATS on the road this season, getting outscoring by 9.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. 

Washington is 3-15 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game this season.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Washington is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 road games dating back to last season.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1 

The Lakers have held their own without Lebron James.  Their last three games they’ve been through the gauntlet and have fared well.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs at Oklahoma City, and they led at Houston the entire way before eventually losing in overtime as 7-point dogs.  Sure, they lost by 19 to the Warriors, but the Warriors are mowing down everyone. 

Now the Lakers have had two days’ rest since that loss to the Warriors, and they should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Timberwolves.  They also could get Rajon Rondo back from injury, which would help mitigate the losses of James and Lonzo Ball.  They still have plenty of talent to beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  They lost by 42 at Philadelphia, were upset at home by San Antonio, and barely won by 2 as 12-point home favorites over Phoenix.  They did go into Phoenix and win and cover, but their two wins during this stretch have been against the worst team in the West in the Suns.  The Timberwolves are just 7-16 SU in road games this season, while the Lakers are 15-10 SU at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday. 

15* Nuggets/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5 

The Utah Jazz had won six straight prior to losing to the Blazers last time out.  I like the fact that they are off a loss here because they should come back motivated at home on National TV with the Denver Nuggets coming to town tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. 

The Jazz also get starting PG Ricky Rubio back from injury tonight.  Denver is 2-12 ATS in road games off two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Utah is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Plays on home teams (Utah) - off a loss to a division opponent against a team that’s off two consecutive covers as a favorite are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1.5 

Fading the Memphis Grizzlies is the best bet you could have made over the last month-plus.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are just 3-17 SU & 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are starting to get burnt out. 

The Grizzlies will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  Six of their last eight losses have come by double-digits.  And now sources say that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are available for trade.  I think both veterans want out of this situation, which says a lot for two stalwarts that have been in Memphis forever. 

The Hornets come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh.  They are playing well coming in.  They have won three of their last four.  They won by 15 at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and also throttled the Kings by 19 and the Suns by 20 at home.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Indiana. 

The Hornets have had the Grizzlies’ number.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have won five of the last six meetings straight up.  Memphis is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5 

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Nets at home on Friday, January 18th less than a week ago today.  They lost that game 115-117.  And now they’ll be out for revenge here while catching 6.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

The Magic are playing well enough to where they should not be this big of underdogs in this spot.  They have upset home wins over the Celtics and Rockets, and an upset road win at Atlanta by 19 in their last six games. They lost in overtime at Detroit and obviously lost by two to Brooklyn, and then had to play the Bucks the following night and were competitive throughout before losing by 10 as 10-point dogs at home. 

This has been a very closely-contested series of late, which is another reason to love getting 6.5 points.  Each of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or less, including four by 5 points or fewer.  And it’s worth noting the Magic get arguably their best player in Aaron Gordon back from a two-game absence tonight due to injury. 

The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nets here tonight and back Orlando in revenge mode.  Bet the Magic Wednesday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +5 

I love the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation as the Suns lost a heartbreaker to the Timberwolves 114-116 in Minnesota on Sunday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later.  I fully expect them to have their revenge. 

The Suns have played the Timberwolves tough in both meetings this series.  They won 107-99 as 7.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they only lost by 2 as 12-point dogs obviously two days ago.  Six players scored in double figures for the Suns in that contest. 

The Timberwolves are just 6-16 SU & 9-13 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up a whopping 116.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting on the highway this year.  They should not be this heavily favored on the road over the Suns given their road record and the situation. 

The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet the Suns Tuesday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days. 

The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money. 

The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point.  Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well.  Take the Mavericks Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2 

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They needed OT to beat Orlando a few nights ago, and snuck out a 98-93 victory over the Heat at home last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Sacramento Kings tonight. 

Making matters worse for the Pistons is the fact that the Kings play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test Detroit’s tired legs.  And the Pistons have some key injuries with Andre Drummond expected to miss this game, and Ish Smith questionable with a groin injury. 

The Kings come in rested an ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They had their impressive three-game winning streak come to an end with their 95-114 loss at Charlotte last time out, but that was a bad spot for them as the Hornets were out for revenge after losing to them less than a week prior in Sacramento.  I took the Hornets in that game, but I’m on the Kings tonight in a great bounce-back spot. 

Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games when revving a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are losing by 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Kings beat the Pistons by 10 at home in their first meeting this year.  Sacramento is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 when playing on one days’ rest.  The road team is 14-6-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Playing the Pacific Northwest gives them that advantage, plus their fans are always loyal.  They have gone 19-7 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just 6-18 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season.  The Pelicans are coming off a tough 140-147 road loss to the defending champion Warriors, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors because it’s impossible for them to be as emotionally invested as they were against the Warriors, meaning it’s a hangover spot whether win or lose. 

Portland is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Friday games.  The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Roll with the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They return home following a tough six-game road trip in which they managed to pull off two upsets at Phoenix and at San Antonio.  And now they’ve had two full days to recover and rest. 

They have also had extra time to get ready for revenge on Sacramento.  The Hornets lost to the Kings on the 5th game of that trip 97-104 on January 12th just five days ago.  Well, they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Portland the previous night, so it wasn’t a good spot for them.  This is a great spot for the Hornets now. 

The Hornets are 14-8 at home this season, while the Kings are 9-11 on the road.  The Hornets have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings with the Kings.  And given the chance at quick revenge here tonight, I fully expect Kemba Walker and company to get the job done at home. 

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Sacramento is 16-39-3 ATS in its last 58 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Hornets Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5 

At 29-14 this season, the Indiana Pacers are legitimately one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  They are just 2.5 games out of first place in the East.  But for two full seasons now, this team has not gotten the respect they deserve.  And I certainly think this is a cheap price on them as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. 

No team is playing better than the Pacers over the past month and a half.  The Pacers are 16-4 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They come in rested and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days with the only other game resulting in a 34-point blowout home win over the Suns. 

The 76ers are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off an emotional home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves as Jimmy Butler got revenge on his former team.  It’s a 76ers team that has been a money burner on the road, going 10-12 SU & 8-14 ATS on the highway this year while losing by 4.6 points per game.  The Pacers are 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS at home, winning by 10.3 points per game on average. 

The Pacers are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers, including their 113-101 road win over Philadelphia in their last meeting this season.  The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by a whopping 18.9 points per game on average.  Take the Pacers Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers had the best record in the Western Conference through November.  But then they went through a rough patch with some injuries in early December.  Once Lou Williams came back, they proceeded to go on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run from late December through early January.   

But the Clippers have since dropped three straight games, and I expect them to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday night when they host the Utah Jazz.  I think we’re getting good value here with the Clippers as only 1.5-point home favorites because they have lost three straight, while the Jazz have won four straight coming in.   

But those four wins for the Jazz came against the Magic, the Lebron-Less Lakers, the Bulls and the Pistons all at home.  The wins over the Bulls and Pistons in their last two games came down to the wire, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Jazz are playing without their top three point guards in Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto. 

Plays against underdogs who are coming off 3 or more consecutive wins, who win between 51% and 60% of their games playing another winning team are 77-39 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Utah is 15-28 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.   I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on the Clippers and 'sell high' on the Jazz tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday. 

20* Raptors/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -2 

The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight, but all three came on the road.  Now they’re back home with Toronto coming to down on National TV.  Look for the Celtics to bounce back in a big way tonight. 

The Celtics also have some good injury news as Kyrie Irvin returns to the lineup tonight, and Marcus Smart and Aaron Baynes could both be available as well.  The Raptors are missing Jonas Valanciunas, and OG Anunoby, and could be without Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  And Boston basically just has to win this game to cover the small 2-point spread. 

The Celtics are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games overall.  Boston is 12-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* Timberwolves/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5 

Jimmy Butler faces his former team in the Minnesota Timberwolves here for the first time tonight.  It’s pretty easy to see which team will be more motivated.  Butler pushed his way out, thinking the Timberwolves didn’t have the pieces to win a championship.  Well, they’ve been just fine without him, and they’ll want to prove that in a big way tonight. 

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been playing with a ton of energy since interim coach Ryan Saunders took over for Tom Thibodeau.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the 76ers. 

Philadelphia is not playing well enough at all to warrant being this big of a favorite.  The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 17 as 3.5-point road favorites at Washington, were upset at home by Atlanta as 10.5-point favorites, and barely escaped with a 3-point win at New York as 9-point favorites. 

Plays against home teams (Philadelphia) - in a game involving two average teams (-3/+3 PPG differential) after 42 or more games, off a close win by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 gams vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday. 

15* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight, which put to a halt a great run they were on in going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games.  I expect them to start a new winning streak with a win and cover at home over the Pelicans tonight. 

The Clippers have held serve on their home court this year, going 14-7 SU & 13-8 ATS in their 21 games in Los Angeles.  The Pelicans have really struggled on the road, going 5-17 SU & 8-14 ATS in their 22 games away from New Orleans. 

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pelicans are 3-13 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Clippers are 17-7 ATS as favorites this season.  New Orleans is 1-14 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  Take the Clippers Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They currently sit at 22-21 and have been playing some of their best basketball here of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They haven’t lost a game by double-digits in any of their last 12 games, so they have been competitive night in and night out. 

I love the situation for the Kings tonight.  They are rested after having yesterday off.  The Kings play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test the tired legs of the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss in altitude in Denver last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. 

Plays on favorites (Sacramento) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Sacramento is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +10 

The Atlanta Hawks want to avenge one of their worst losses of the season to the Milwaukee Bucks just over a week ago.  They lost 112-144 at Milwaukee as 13.5-point dogs on January 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch, and I expect a much better effort from them. 

The Hawks have played a lot better since that defeat.  They are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They blasted the Heat 106-82 as 6.5-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch.  They only lost by 3 at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs, and upset the 76ers by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Bucks are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Giannis missed last game with a hip injury, and although he’s supposed to return tonight, I expect the Bucks to be cautious with him.  Eric Bledsoe is dealing with a hamstring injury.  The Hawks get Taurean Prince back from injury and Jeremy Lin is probable as well.  Prince (15.0 PPG) has missed the last 18 games with an ankle injury. 

Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who allow 110-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 25-48 ATS in their last 73 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Plays on underdogs (Atlanta) - revenging a same-season loss, off a huge upset win as a road dog of 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They enter play Saturday at 21-21 and in the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference.  Even when they lose games, they are competitive now. 

That’s evident by the fact that their last six losses have all come by single-digits, and they have come against the likes of the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Suns.  Five of those six teams are playoff squads in the Western Conference.  They had a chance to win all six of those games in the closing minutes. 

The Charlotte Hornets are really struggling right now.  They are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are coming off a 96-127 loss in Portland last night, making this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They are now just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six road games, losing four times by 13 points or more.  They will now be playing their 5th consecutive road game as they continue this brutal six-game trip. 

The Kings will certainly test the Hornets’ tired legs as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA.  The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Kings are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night.  And now they have to play the Pelicans, who will test their tired legs as they play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA. 

That pace has gotten even faster since getting starting PG Elfrid Payton back from injury.  The Pelicans also get Nikola Mirotic back from injury, and now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  This is going to be a dangerous team moving forward, and that has already started to show as the Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 35, 19 and 16 points. 

The Pelicans, conversely, are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing on two days’ rest, and this will also be just their 4th game in 10 days.  It will be the 8th game in 14 days for the Timberwolves for comparison’s sake, so it’s easy to see them starting to wear down now. 

New Orleans is 27-13 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on two days rest.  New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 

Two teams with huge home/road splits square off in Minnesota tonight.  The Timberwolves have certainly been taking care of their home court this season, going 14-6 SU & 13-7 ATS in Minnesota.  Dallas has been awful on the road, going 3-18 SU. 

The Timberwolves are playing some great basketball coming into this game.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 17 over Orlando and by 22 over the Lakers, both at home.  They also went on the road and upset the Thunder as 8.5-point dogs.  Yet, they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here as only 4.5-point home favorites. 

The Mavericks are not playing well, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only win coming at home against Phoenix, which has the worst record in the Western Conference.  They lost by 21 at Boston and by 10 at home to the Lakers.  They were down 15-plus in the 4th quarter against the 76ers but only lost by 6.  The Mavs are just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games overall. 

Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 ATS in January home games over the last two seasons.  They are outscoring the opposition by a whopping 16.6 points pre game in these January home games.  The favorite is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Timberwolves Friday. 

20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on New York +9 

The Knicks have already lost twice to the Pacers this season, so they’ll be playing with double revenge.  They lost by 6 at home and by 11 on the road, so they were competitive in both games.  And now they are catching 9 points at home tonight, which is simply too much. 

The Knicks should be motivated not only for revenge, but also because this is a National TV game on ESPN, and they are rarely on National TV.  They also come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

The Pacers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They will also be playing their 5th straight road game, and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  It’s a brutal scheduling spot for them.  It’s worth noting that two of their best players are questionable to play tonight in Myles Turner (shoulder) and Darren Collison (leg). 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Knicks are 3-1 SU in their last four home meetings with the Pacers with their only loss coming by 6 points.  The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  New York is 36-17 ATS in its last 54 Friday games.  Bet the Knicks Friday. 

15* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They have gone just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But all six losses came by single-digits as they were in every game with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.  And five of the losses have come against playoff teams in the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors. 

Now the Kings get a team they can handle tonight in the Detroit Pistons, who are 4-15 SU & 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  It’s a tired Detroit team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days after a 100-113 road loss to the Lebron-less Lakers last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings, who play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA and will test their tired legs tonight. 

Sacramento is 15-6 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Kings are 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

15* Clippers/Nuggets Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6 

As long as Lou Williams has been healthy and in the lineup, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season.  They got off to the best record in the West after about a month with him, then he got hurt and they struggled for a few weeks.  But he returned from injury, and the Clippers have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their 10 games since.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or more. 

The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have simply been fortunate in close games this season, which is why they are 27-12.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 5.0 points per game on the season.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets while they have the best record in the Western Conference.  They have gone just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall as they haven’t been able to meet the massive expectations they’ve set for themselves. 

The Clippers are 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS in its last eight when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  It’s no surprise that they are starting to cover some spreads and be more competitive.  Indeed, the Bulls are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall coming into this showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They are well-rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest as well. 

The Bulls have been doing their best work on the road of late.  Chicago is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  That includes outright upsets at San Antonio 98-93 as 9-point dogs, at Cleveland 112-92 as 1-point dogs and at Washington 101-92 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also gave the Raptors are run for their money in a 89-95 loss at 10.5-point dogs. 

Portland will be playing its 4th game in 6 days tonight.  The Blazers are starting to get bored playing five of their last six games at home.  They failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their last home game, and I think they won’t be exactly excited to play the Bulls tonight, either. 

Chicago is 13-3 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 19-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against home favorites (Portland) - who score 102 or more points pre game against a team that scores 98-102 PPG, after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 82-106 at Atlanta as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday.  It’s safe to say that the Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Denver Nuggets. 

It was clearly an aberration for the Heat, who have been playing great basketball for weeks.  Indeed, the Heat are 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  And the Heat have owned tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets, in recent meetings.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets. 

Denver is in an awful spot here tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days here.  They will also be playing in their 4th different city in six days.  Now they’re up against a rested Heat team that will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.  The Nuggets won’t have much left in the tank off their 113-125 shootout loss in Houston last night. 

Miami is 11-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Denver is 0-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS off a combined score of 235 points or more this season.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory at home Monday night.  They have lost four straight coming in, but all four losses came by 7 points or less to the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors, four playoff teams in the Western Conference.  I expect them to take out their frustrations on the lowly Magic tonight. 

This is a bad spot for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  This is a Magic team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six road games with all five losses coming by 10 points or more.  They have no depth, so this back-to-back really hurt them. 

Making matters worse for the Magic is that their conditioning will really be tested against a Kings team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 106.3 possessions per game.  The Magic are 26th in pace at 100 possessions per game.  Sacramento will control the tempo playing at home, and Orlando won’t be able to keep up. 

The Kings have owned the Magic, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Sacramento is also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Take the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 

The Pelicans took out a few weeks’ worth of frustration with their 133-98 win over the Cavaliers on Saturday.  And now they look to put a winning streak together here for the first time since mid-December.  It’s time for them to turn the corner now that they are healthier than they’ve been in quite some time.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Pelicans should have their way with a Grizzlies team that is really struggling right now.  The Grizzlies are just 2-10 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Yet they continue getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. The Grizzlies have been held to less than 100 points in 11 of their last 17 games, and 107 or fewer in 20 straight.   

The Grizzlies just can’t score the ball, and that’s a tough way to win in today’s NBA.  There has been some infighting as well as the Grizzlies called a players’ only meeting following their 94-101 home loss to Detroit as 6.5-point favorites.  They proceeded to lose their next two games 100-109 as 4-point home favorites against Brooklyn, and 88-108 as 8.5-point road dogs at San Antonio.  Clearly, the players’ only meeting only made things worse. 

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after trailing its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last two seasons.  As stated before, the Grizzlies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are back healthy and playing like they did to start the season where they at one point at had the best record in the Western Conference.  The Clippers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should handle the Magic with ease today at home. 

The Magic will have spent last night in Los Angeles, which is always a scary proposition.  Chances are they stayed out late and won’t be feeling 100% for this 12:35 Pacific tip.  The Magic have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits, losing by 25 at Dallas, by 10 at Chicago, by 25 at Charlotte and by 17 at Minnesota. 

The Clippers have owned the Magic in recent meetings, including their 120-95 road win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  The Clippers have now won 10 straight meetings with the Magic by an average of 13.6 points per game. 

The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game.  The favorite is 21-5-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers +1 

I realize the Blazers are playing the second of a back-to-back here.  But they’ll be motivated after blowing a lead to the Thunder and losing 109-111.  And I don’t worry about back-to-backs with this team as much because they have one of the best benches in the NBA.  I think they can overcome the situation considering it’s an even worse spot for the Rockets. 

Indeed, the Rockets are coming off a huge, emotional win over the Warriors on a last-second 3-pointer from James Harden in OT.  They wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing in seven games to them in the Western Conference Finals last year, and they got it.  Now I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here in this clear hangover spot for them against the Blazers tonight. 

James harden has to be running on fumes right now.  He’s being asked to do so much for this team with both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out.  And backups PG Austin Rivers is questionable tonight with a neck injury as well.  Sooner rather than later, these injuries are going to catch up to this team, and I think it’s tonight. 

Houston is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing its last game on the road this season.  The Rockets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Portland is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games.  I don’t expect the Rockets to show up at all tonight.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +8.5 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Knicks right now.  That’s because they are only 1-13 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks now, which I did in their last game as they covered as 14-point dogs at Denver in a 7-point loss. 

Now the Knicks are catching 8.5 points against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is without both Lebron James and Raton Rondo, and could be without Kyle Kuzma, who left last game with a back injury and didn’t return.  It’s likely he sits this one out as well, meaning the Lakers will be without their two best players in James and Kuzma. 

Teams with Lebron James on them have now gone just 1-14 SU in the last 15 games he has missed.  The Lakers managed to blow a 4th quarter lead against the Thunder the other night as they looked lost in the final period without him.  And the Knicks are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  Plus, they are rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest. 

Los Angeles tends to play to its level of competition.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS vs. poor teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Knicks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 Friday games.  Los Angeles is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  We’re getting great value on the road dog Knicks, who will be thrilled to play in Staples Center tonight on a big stage.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

20* Thunder/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off an emotional come from behind victory over the Lebron-less Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday.  Paul George was booed for not signing with the Lakers in the offseason.  And he played his heart out, as did the rest of the team, yet the Thunder still needed a big finish in the 4th to beat the Lakers without Lebron.  This is now a clear letdown spot for them. 

The Thunder now run into a buzz saw in the Blazers, who are 3-1 in their last four games with road wins over the Warriors and Kings, and a blowout home win by 36 points over the 76ers.  Their only loss came the game after they beat Golden State as the Warriors got their revenge in a home-and-home situation.  That’s understandable. 

Portland has had one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA for years, and they are consistently undervalued at home.  The Blazers are 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS at home this year.  And the Blazers own the Thunder, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They should not be home dogs to the Thunder in this matchup tonight. 

Portland is 11-1 ATS in home games after going under the total in three consecutive games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  The Thunder are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games dating back to last season.  Bet the Blazers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -4 

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost two straight coming in to the Spurs and 76ers.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Phoenix Suns, who have the worst record in the Western Conference at 9-30 this season. 

The Clippers have been taking out their frustrations on the Suns for years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They have won those 10 games by a whopping 14.3 points per game on average, and all 10 have come by 4 points or more with eight by double-digits. 

I think this line is lower than it should be simply because the Clippers only beat the Suns 123-119 on December 10th in their last meeting.  Keep in mind the Clippers were favored by 9.5 points on the road in that game, so we’re essentially getting 5.5 points of value.  And the Clippers are now as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  The Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Phoenix is 1-12 ATS in Friday home games over the past two seasons, losing by 16.0 points per game on average.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

The Timberwolves have some key injuries right now that are really hampering them.  Starting PG Jeff Teague (ankle) has been out for weeks and remains questionable to return tonight, backup PG Derrick Rose is doubtful with an ankle injury, and now Robert Covington just popped up with an ankle injury that will be keeping him out tonight. 

All these injuries have been taking their toll on the Timberwolves.  It’s no wonder they are just 4-9 SU & 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  These aren’t big names, so the injuries aren’t getting factored into the lines enough.  And once again the Timberwolves are getting too much respect tonight as 5.5-point favorites over the Magic. 

Orlando comes in playing very well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 29-point home win over Toronto and a 28-point road win at Chicago.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Charlotte, which is understandable.  The Magic have played their best basketball on the road this season, going 9-9 SU & 11-5-2 ATS. 

The Magic own the Timberwolves, going 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Two of those losses came in overtime.  Orlando is 7-0 ATS in road games off a road game this season.  The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to Minnesota.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Magic Friday. 

15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8 

The Houston Rockets are without both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon tonight.  They will miss both of their playmaking ability against a team the caliber of the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I don’t give the Rockets much of a chance here because James Harden is going to have to do too much, and going one-on-one against Golden State does not work. 

The Rockets are starting to get some respect from oddsmakers because they’ve been able to win without Paul recently.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But four of those five games have come at home.  The Rockets are just 8-10 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season. 

The Warriors are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, and it’s starting to show.  They got their Big 4 back and hitting on all cylinders.  They are coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins at Portland (115-105) and at Phoenix (132-109).  And now they’re rested and ready to go having two days’ rest coming in. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - off three or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning teams are 75-38 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets lost their final two games to the Warriors in the seven-game series last season without Paul by 29 and 9 points.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Warriors Thursday. 

20* Raptors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on San Antonio -1.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They are 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And once again they are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Toronto Raptors. 

It’s a Raptors team that is already without Jonas Valanciunas and could be without Kyle Lowry, who is questionable with a back injury.  Lowry has missed eight of the past nine games, and the Raptors are just 2-7 ATS without him this season. 

I think the Spurs will be extra motivated tonight, also.  They feel like they were scorned by Kawhi Leonard, and he forced his way out of San Antonio with the trade that brought DeMar DeRozan to the Alamo city.  DeRozan will also be extra motivated, and his team will have his back here. 

The Spurs are 15-5 SU & 14-6 ATS at home this season.  San Antonio is 16-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 12-1 ATS in home games after covering six or seven of their last eight against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

15* Thunder/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6 

Lebron James is obviously worth a lot to the point spread, but not this much.  I think the books have adjusted too much.  This Lakers team still has a lot of talent without James, and they won without him pulling off the upset at home over the Kings last time out. 

Now the Lakers are rested and ready to win without him again tonight.  They will be playing on two days’ rest here after having Monday and Tuesday off.  They should be primed for a big effort against a Thunder team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 20 days. 

The lack of rest for the Thunder is starting to show.  They have gone just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two wins came on the road at Phoenix and at home against Dallas.  They actually trailed Phoenix in the fourth quarter before pulling away late.  And the win over the Mavs was a revenge spot after losing to the Mavs the night before. 

The Lakers are 28-15 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Lakers Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +1 

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season.  They’ll be a dangerous team moving forward because of it as they sit at just 17-21 and undervalued because of their record.  But that record is largely due to their lack of health. 

Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton have all missed significant time this season.  But Davis is healthy, and Payton has only played in seven games but just recently returned.  They played great with him to start the season, and his absence has been big.  Mirotic is the only player on the injury report now. 

Speaking of injuries, the Nets have a plethora of them right now.  They have been without leading scorer Caris LeVert and have been without him for some time.  But now they are without two key role players in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Allen Crabbe (9.5 PPG).  The strength of this team was their depth, but now that depth is being really tested. 

The Pelicans have owned the Nets, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  And that’s significant because they just have to win the game to cover tonight as they are actually underdogs.  This is one of the biggest line mistakes I’ve seen this season.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday. 

15* 76ers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been playing some great basketball since.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games since Williams came back.  One of those losses was a 2-point loss at Golden State as 11-point dogs.  

I expect the Clippers to be highly motivated for a win off their upset home loss to the Spurs last time out.  They should be rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They also have two more days off following this game, so I expect them to give max effort given that this is their only game in a five-day span. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers are in a tougher spot here playing their 4th consecutive road game.  They have a 5th tomorrow night against the Suns as well, so they’ll be looking to conserve some energy and play their starters less minutes.  They are coming off an ugly 95-125 road loss to the Blazers and are just 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS in road games this season. 

The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games.  The 76ers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14 

The Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall coming in.  So we’ll ‘buy low’ on them, knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  That forces oddsmakers to set their lines higher than they should be, and we’re getting some great value on them as 14-point dogs now. 

The Nuggets have been overvalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 21 to the Clippers, by 8 to the Spurs, only beating the Spurs by 3 and the Suns by 4.  And now they’re being asked to lay a whopping 14 points to the Knicks tonight.  It’s simply too much. 

Plays on any team (New York) - in a game involving two teams who score at least 102 points per game, off three straight losses by 10 points or more are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies +5 

The Houston Rockets are already without Chris Paul.  And now they will be without Eric Gordon, who suffered a knee injury last game.  This team has been terrible without Paul, and they can’t afford to lose Gordon.  Paul and Gordon combine to average 30.3 points and 10.2 assists per game.  They just aren’t deep enough to overcome their absences. 

Memphis is fully healthy and one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They are so much better when both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy, and they have added some nice pieces around them.  And this is a rested Grizzlies team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and only their 3rd game in 8 days. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 44-21 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3 

The Dallas Mavericks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They are 14-3 at home compared to 2-15 on the road.  They should not be home underdogs to the Thunder tonight considering they are 13-4 ATS at home and winning by 8.0 points per game on average in Dallas this season. 

The Mavericks are certainly happy to be back home after playing six of their last eight on the road.  That’s a big reason why they went just 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  But they suffered several close losses to great teams along the way, losing by 4 at the Clippers, by 4 at the Warriors, by 3 at the Blazers and by 2 at the Pelicans.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight to get back in the win column. 

The Mavericks have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  That includes 111-96 and 97-81 victories in their last two home meetings with the Thunder.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with both of their losses coming by a single point.  They have outscored the Thunder by an average of 8.8 points per game in those five meetings in Dallas. 

The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.  The Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -3.5 

The Miami Heat are flying under the radar right now.  They have gone 10-4 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall to get to .500 on the season.  I expect them to continue to roll tonight at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves have started to struggle of late.  They are 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes losses to the Pistons, Hawks, Suns and Kings.  A big reason for their struggles has been the injury to starting PG Jeff Teague.  And now they are expected to be without backup PG Derrick Rose, who has been absolutely huge for them this season. 

I always like fading teams who spent Saturday night in big cities.  Well, there’s not many more distracting cities than South Beach, Miami.  You can bet these Timberwolves players were out partying last night.  They won’t be focused for this game at all.  Plus, the Timberwolves are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

20* Spurs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3.5 

Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been rolling ever since.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming 127-129 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs.  I think they continue rolling tonight as short home favorites over the Spurs. 

The spot favors the Clippers.  Both the Spurs and Clippers are on back-to-backs, but the Clippers don’t have to travel after facing the Lakers at Staples Center last night.  The Spurs do have to travel after their 99-102 loss at Denver last night in the altitude.  Playing in high elevation last night will have certainly taken its toll on the Spurs, and don’t be surprised if Greg Popovich rests a starter or two tonight. 

The Spurs have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They are 14-5 at home compared to just 5-12 on the road.  They are giving up a whopping 114.9 points per game and 48.5% shooting on the road.  The Clippers are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this year, scoring 117.3 points per game and shooting 47.6% from the floor. 

The Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or more this season.  The Spurs are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7 

It’s nice to see what the Phoenix Suns are capable of when they’re fully engaged and healthy.  And that has come to fruition here over the last couple weeks.  The Suns are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two losses both coming on the road by a combined 11 points. 

They have played so well despite five of their last seven games on the road.  They have pulled off four outright upsets.  They beat the Mavs by 10 as 6-point home dogs and the Timberwolves by 8 as 7.5-point home dogs.  They also went on the road and won by 8 at Boston as 11.5-point dogs and by 2 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  And now the Suns are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as 7-point home dogs tonight. 

Phoenix will be playing with triple-revenge as this will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams.  From October 28th to November 17th in a span of three weeks, the Thunder beat the Suns three times by 7, 17 and 10 points.  The Suns were not playing well at all then, but this is a different team now and they’ll be highly motivated to get a win to avoid the season sweep. 

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  Roll with the Suns Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +7 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Magic tonight at home.  They have lost four straight both SU and ATS and are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And now they are catching 7 points at home because of their recent struggles.  I expect them to be max motivated with the Eastern Conference-leading Raptors coming to town tonight. 

The Raptors are certainly vulnerable right now.  They have been overvalued for a month now due to having the best record in the East.  The Raptors are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also just 6-6 SU in their last 12 games. 

The reason the Raptors have been vulnerable of late is due to all their injuries.  They have been without both Jonas Valanciunas and Norman Powell for a while now, and Kyle Lowry has sat out a few gams with a back injury.  Lowry is their most important player as they’ve been able to win consistently without Kawhi Leonard, but not when Lowry has been out of the lineup.  They are just 1-5 ATS in the six games Lowry has missed. 

The Magic will be looking to avenge a 91-93 home loss as identical 7-point dogs to the Raptors on November 20th in their first and only meeting this season.  The Magic are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Orlando.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. 

Plays on underdogs (Orlando) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Magic Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5 

I absolutely love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation, and the Hornets lost 132-134 at Brooklyn on Wednesday.  And now they get to play two days later with the revenge-minded Hornets only laying 4.5 points at home over the Nets tonight.  They’ll get their revenge with a win and cover at home here. 

It’s definitely time to ’sell high’ on the Nets, who have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.  That’s why this line is lower than it should be.  They have mostly beaten up on a weak schedule during this stretch with seven of their 10 games coming at home as well.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Hornets, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

The Hornets are 12-7 at home this year.  Their offense has been explosive at home, scoring 114.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  The Nets are only scoring 106.8 points per game on the road on 44.2% shooting this season. 

Plays on home favorites (Charlotte) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 100 or more points, off two or more consecutive road losses are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Sacramento -3.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge 127-101 upset win as 9-point underdogs over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for them tonight as now they hit the road to take on the Sacramento Kings two days later. 

Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they lost LeBron James to a groin injury in that win, and now James will be sitting this game out.  But the injuries don’t stop there.  The Lakers are also expected to be without Rajon Rondo and Michael Beasley, and their top two centers in Tyson Chandler and JaVale McGee are questionable. 

Yes, the Kings are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their loss to the Clippers last night, but all 13 players saw action and nobody played more than 30 minutes in that game.  So they should be fresh and ready to go with the Lakers coming to town, especially since they had two days off prior to that Clippers game.  This is also a very young team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most teams. 

The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Sacramento is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Kings are 14-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent that’s off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Kings Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +14.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It’s a home-and-home situation where these teams just met in New York on Christmas Day, and now they’ll meet in Milwaukee two days later.  I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these home-and-home situations, and that would be the Knicks here Thursday. 

After losing 95-109 as 10-point home underdogs in the first meeting, the Knicks are now catching 14.5 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much.  They’ll be the more motivated team after losing that first meeting, while the Bucks won’t be motivated at all after just beating the Knicks on National TV.  I expect the Bucks to simply be going through the motions. 

The Knicks played the Bucks tough outside of the 3rd quarter, where they were outscored 36-22.  That proved to be the difference in the game.  And the Knicks haven’t lost by more than 14 points to the Bucks yet this season.  They lost by 11 in their first meeting in Milwaukee on October 22nd, won outright as 8-point home dogs by 2 in their 2nd meeting on December 1st, then obviously lost by 14 two days ago.  In fact, the Bucks haven’t won any of their last 11 meetings with the Knicks by more than 14 points, making for an 11-0 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 14.5-point spread. 

New York is 22-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 21-48 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 14-29 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar over the past three weeks.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are better than they get credit for, and I’ll gladly lay the short number with them at home here tonight against the Denver Nuggets. 

The Nuggets are simply getting too much respect from the books after going 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they are missing three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton, and it’s simply going to be hard for them to keep up this pace now.  They just lost by 21 last time out to the Clippers on the road, and they’ll be hard-pressed to keep this game even competitive against the Spurs. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU In their last 11 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They have won their last eight home meetings with the Nuggets by a whopping 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season.  They are beating these teams by 16.9 points per game on average.  Denver is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. Southwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  They are losing by 12.7 points pre game in this spot.  San Antonio is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games overall.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday. 

15* Lakers/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +9 

The Golden State Warriors have been overvalued all season.  That’s what happens when you win three titles in the last four years.  They are just 14-20 ATS on the season.  And they have been even more overvalued since getting Stephen Curry and Draymond Green back in the lineup.  Asking them to win by double-digits to cover this number against the Lakers is simply asking too much. 

Indeed, the Warriors are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only won by 8 as 9.5-point home favorites over the Timberwolves, lost outright to the Raptors as 8-point home favorites, only won by 5 as 7.5-point road favorites at Sacramento, lost by 5 as 2-point favorites at Utah, won by 4 as 11-point home favorites against the Mavericks and won by 2 as 11-point home favorites against the Clippers. 

The Lakers played the Warriors very tough last season. They went 3-1 ATS and didn’t lose once by more than 11 points.  They took the Warriors to overtime twice, and only lost by 7 points at Golden State as 11.5-point dogs.  And now they have Lebron James and are way better than last year’s Lakers.  And you can bet James wants to prove to the Warriors that he now has a team that can beat them in the playoffs. 

The Warriors are 1-13 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Lakers are 24-10 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on New York +10 

The Milwaukee Bucks are way overvalued as 10-point road favorites over the New York Knicks on Christmas Day.  This is a rare chance for the Knicks to showcase their talents on National TV, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory here Tuesday.  I expect one of their biggest efforts of the season. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are certainly undervalued after going 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But they are finally as healthy as they have been at any other point this season with only Kristaps Porzingis expected to miss this game.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bucks, who are are off to a fast 22-10 start and sitting in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. 

The Knicks have played the Bucks tough in their two meetings this season.  They covered as 11.5-point road underdogs in an 11-point loss.  And they won outright in overtime 136-134 as 8-point home dogs to the Bucks on December 1st.  I think the Knicks will have an excellent chance to win this game outright as well, let alone stay within this massive 10-point spread at home. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - an excellent offensive team that scores more than 102 points per game against a bad defensive team that allows more than 102 points per game, after scoring 90 points or less last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +10.5 

The Clippers are undervalued right now.  They lost six of seven and a large part of that streak was due to the injury to Lou Williams.  But Williams returned two games ago, and it’s no surprise the Clippers have won their two games since his return by a combined 25 points over Dallas and Denver.  Williams is the team’s third-leading scorer at 17.1 PPG and a vital part of their team as he injects life into the bench and closes out games.  Williams has 32 points and 15 assists combined in his two games since returning. 

Both the Clippers and Warriors played last night, so both will be on the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that favors the Clippers.  They are a deep team which has been a big reason for their success, largely due to how well Williams plays off the bench.  The Warriors rely heavily on their big four and play them big minutes, and there’s no doubt that Clippers are the more rested team. 

The Clippers blew out the Nuggets by 21 points last night so they were able to rest their starters.  Only one player played more than 26 minutes for them, and that was youngster Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  Meanwhile, the Warriors were in a dog fight with the Mavericks last night, winning 120-116.  That will have taken its toll as their big four in Curry (39:29), Durant (36:51), Green (35:15) and Thompson (33:00) all were forced to play big minutes.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the deep Clippers tonight. 

I also think it’s a big look-ahead spot for the Warriors.  They have the much-anticipated Christmas Day game with Lebron James and the Lakers on deck.  The Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight as everyone gets up for the defending champs, and they already beat them 121-116 as 4-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they tend to play the Warriors tough on the road as their two meetings before that they only lost by 7 as 10.5-point road dogs and upset the Warriors by 19 as 12-point road dogs. 

The Clippers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 Sunday games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -6.5 

The Boston Celtics had a lengthy team meeting after Friday night’s home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  It was necessary after the Celtics suffered their third consecutive loss, which actually followed up an eight-game losing streak.  I look for them to respond in a big way tonight at home against the Hornets now that they have cleared the air amongst themselves. 

I think a big reason for their recent struggles has been the absence of center Al Horford, who has missed the past six games with a sore knee.  But Horford is expected to return tonight, and he means everything to this team.  He is a tremendous passer who can stretch the floor and open things up in the lane for all of their other playmakers like Irving, Tatum and Brown.  Marcus Morris has missed the past two games and could return tonight as well as he is listed as questionable.  They are close to full strength now. 

The Celtics simply own the Hornets, going 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Those seven wins have come by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They actually lost by 5 at Charlotte in their lone meeting this season.  But the Celtics are 30-10 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  They are 27-7 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored more than 100 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 home games.  Roll with the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -9.5 

This one is about as obvious as it gets tonight.  The Wizards are coming off a triple-overtime victory over the Suns yesterday.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.  Bradley Beal (53:56), Trevor Ariza (54:10), Jeff Green (48:58) and Tomas Satorasnky (48:07) all plays huge minutes last night.  Otto Porter is out due to injury, and John Wall is questionable after missing last night with an illness. 

The Pacers come in playing very well.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses during this stretch came by a combined 4 points, and one was on the road to Toronto.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or more, including five by double-digits.  Given the awful situation for the Wizards tonight off the triple-OT game, the Pacers should have no problem beating them by double-digits to get the cover. 

The Wizards are just 4-14 SU & 4-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game on average.  The Pacers are 28-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 0-10 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on zero rest.  Take the Pacers Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +3 

The Miami Heat are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  This is a Heat team that has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games despite playing six of those seven on the road.   

The Heat beat the Rockets 101-99 Thursday as 3-point dogs in their only home game during this stretch.  And now they are certainly rested and ready to go as this will be just the 2nd game in 6 days for Miami.  Look for another big performance from them here with the Bucks coming to down. 

The Bucks are a tired team and are in a clearly letdown spot.  Milwaukee will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 14 days.  They are coming off a huge 120-107 win in Boston in a revenge game after the Celtics knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Heat tonight as they were the Celtics. 

Few teams have been able to shut down Giannis and company like the Heat have.  Indeed, the Heat are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks.  They have held the Bucks to just 90 points per game in those five meetings and have outscored them by an average of 11.8 points per game.  Given the favorable situation for the Heat and the bad one for the Bucks, their domination of this series will continue tonight.  Take the Heat Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1 

I think the Clippers are back to being undervalued now after losing six of their last eight overall since being in first place in the Western Conference.  But a big reason for those struggles was the loss of perennial 6th man of the year Lou Williams.  But he is back health now and returned for their win over the Mavericks on Thursday. 

The Nuggets are overvalued due to winning four straight and 11 of their last 13 overall coming in.  They have managed to get by despite key injuries with three starters out in Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton.  But I still believe it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later.  And their four-game winning streak was all at home, and now they hit the road here. 

The Clippers are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season.  The Nuggets are 13-3 at home compared to just 8-6 on the road.  And I have no doubt the Clippers will be the more motivated team here after their recent struggles.  They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Denver is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

The Los Angeles Lakers return home tonight highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road losses to the Wizards and Nets to close out a tough road trip.  But the Lakers have had two days off since last playing on Tuesday to rest and recover.  They are now primed for a big performance at home tonight. 

The Pelicans are a mash unit right now.  Starters Elfrid Payton and Nikola Mirotic are out, while fellow starters Anthony Davis and Julius Randle are listed as questionable.  Well, the Lakers are getting healthier tonight as starter Brandon Ingram is expected to return from his ankle injury.  Backup PG Rajon Rondo has been upgraded to questionable and could make his return to the lineup as well. 

The Pelicans have been brutal on the road this season, going 4-12 SU and giving up 116.1 PPG.  The Lakers are 11-4 at home and scoring 113.8 PPG and should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a putrid Pelicans defense.  And with all of their injuries right now, this New Orleans offense just isn’t hitting on all cylinders. 

New Orleans is 3-12 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Los Angeles is 19-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Friday games.  Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are too good at home to only be laying two points to the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this season and winning by 8.3 points per game on average.  The Blazers are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series too as the home team is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  And this is clearly a letdown spot for the Jazz, who are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors on Wednesday and won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Blazers tonight.  Take the Blazers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

The San Antonio Spurs are a lot better than they get credit for.  And they are certainly better at home than on the road.  They come in playing well going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And I still think they’re undervalued as only 4-point home favorites over the Timberwolves tonight. 

One of my favorite trends with this Spurs team is that they are 13-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  They are also 10-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  They are winning by an average of 16.2 PPG in this 10-0 situation. 

Well, the Spurs just suffered one of their worst losses of the season 89-128 at Minnesota on November 28th.  So they’ll be highly motivated to avenge that defeat.  And they should be able to against a Timberwolves team that has been atrocious on the road, going 2-12 SU & 5-9 ATS while losing by 7.6 PPG.   

The Timberwolves will also be without starting PG Jeff Teague tonight.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, which is a big reason why they are playing so well coming into this game.  Their strong play continues tonight in this revenge spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks -2.5 

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have lost eight of their last nine coming in and have played a brutal road schedule with five of their last eight on the road.  Their last two home games were both on the second of a back-to-back, too, so their home schedule has been rough. 

But now the Knicks are undervalued and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  They are back home and had yesterday off to rest and regroup, and they should be able to handle a bad Atlanta Hawks team that is just 7-23 overall this season, including 2-14 on the road and losing by 12.4 PPG on average away from home. 

The Knicks have already beaten the Hawks twice this season.  They won 126-107 as 4-point home favorites in their first meeting, and 112-107 as 1.5-point road favorites in their second meeting.  So when you compare this 2.5-point spread to that -4 number they were laying against the Hawks in their first home meeting, there’s some clear value here with the Knicks. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season and losing by 16.7 PPG on average.  The Hawks are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 Friday games.  Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  New York is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 Friday games.  Roll with the Knicks Friday. 

20* Rockets/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5 

The spot couldn’t be better for the Miami Heat tonight.  They’ve had three days off to rest and recover from a tough six-game road trip. Impressively, the Heat went 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS on that road trip, pulling off outright upsets over the Clippers, Grizzlies and Pelicans, while also playing the Lakers right down to the wire and covering.  Now they’ll be motivated to beat another Western Conference team at home tonight. 

The spot couldn’t be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They beat the Wizards at home last night in an absolute shootout, setting the NBA record for made 3’s (26) in a game.  Off that record-setting performance, it’s only human nature for them to have a letdown here. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Miami) - a well-rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Take the Heat Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6 

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-92 loss at Memphis on December 12th exactly one week ago today.  And they’re home here tonight where they have been playing great basketball up against a short-handed Grizzlies team. 

The Blazers are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy right now and really playing well at home of late, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with a 22-point win over Phoenix, and 8-point win over Minnesota and a 6-point win over Toronto.  Dating back further, Portland is 27-10 ATS in its last 37 home gams. 

The Grizzlies are stuck on the struggle bus right now.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are coming off a 17-point loss to the defending champion Warriors, and I always like fading teams after facing the Warriors.  PG Mike Conley hasn’t been healthy for weeks as he continues to battle a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight.  He means everything to this team.  And this is a tired Grizzlies team playing their 8th game in 13 days. 

Memphis is 6-18 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 72-23 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Nets have won six straight coming into this game and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And now they are rare road favorites tonight when they have only been favored on the road once this season, and that was at Phoenix. 

It’s an awful spot for the Nets.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Lakers last night, so they are clearly in line for a letdown.  Plus, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Bulls team that is just 3-15 SU in its last 18 games overall.  They are also coming off a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City.  That followed up an upset win at San Antonio as 9-point dogs to show what they were capable of.  And the Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been all season with Markkanen, Portis and Dunn all recently returning to the lineup.  They should be a money-maker in the short-term moving forward. 

Brooklyn is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks +5 

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset losses to the Suns and Kings, which followed up 12-3 run that has the Mavericks sitting in first place in their division right now.  They are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight. 

I think the Nuggets are in a big letdown spot tonight.  They have managed to win three straight at home over the Grizzlies, Thunder and Raptors despite playing without three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton.  Teams can play well in the short-term with injuries, but it catches up to them over the long haul due to depth issues.  I think it starts catching up for the Nuggets tonight, especially off their big win over the Raptors last time out as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Mavs. 

Dallas had Denver’s number last season, going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings.  Their two losses came on the road by only 2 and 3 points, and they won their two home meetings with the Nuggets by 17 and 11 points.  And you have to consider that the Nuggets are in a lot worse shape right now than they were last year, while the Mavericks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA and almost 100% healthy. 

The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents, while the Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  Dallas is 29-11 ATS in its lsat 40 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs PK 

The San Antonio Spurs had their four-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 93-98 home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Look for them to respond in a big way here against the Philadelphia 76ers and continue their success at home, where they are 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS on the season. 

The Spurs catch the Philadelphia 76ers in a very tough spot here tonight.  The 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning in Cleveland last night.  It's a long flight to San Antonio, and I don’t think the 76ers will have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Spurs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers overall.  The Spurs are 19-2 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the 76ers.  The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of .600 or better.  The Spurs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

San Antonio is 16-4 ATS in December home games over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 14-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +13 

The Chicago Bulls have been more competitive since Jim Boylan took over as head coach.  They have gone 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games with an outright upset at San Antonio as 9-point dogs and an outright upset over Oklahoma City at home as 8-point dogs. 

Now, the Bulls are catching 13 points here on the road in the rematch with the Thunder, and it’s simply too much.  That’s especially the case when you consider the Bulls have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks.  They’ve gotten Lauri Markkanen (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Kris Dunn (11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG) and Bobby Portis (10.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG) back from injury.  This team now has more depth than they’ve had all season. 

The Thunder moved into first place in the Western Conference recently, and have been overvalued since.  They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And once again they are laying too many points here against the Bulls as massive 13-point favorites. 

The Bulls have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS with three outright upsets.  Oklahoma City is just 9-26 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Worse yet, the Thunder are 3-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last two years.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12 

The love for the Indiana Pacers is starting to get out of hand here Sunday.  They are 12-point favorites over the New York Knicks.  Well, the Pacers have only been favored by more than 8 points once all season.  That was as 11.5-point home favorites over the Hawks, and the Pacers failed to cover in an 8-point win. 

The reason the Pacers are getting so much love right now is because they have won six in a row coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bucks and 76ers as well.  If anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Knicks.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers today. 

Conversely, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks.  They have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they had a nice 126-124 (OT) road win over the Hornets last time out where they showed a ton of heart in coming back from a big deficit.  And the Knicks certainly want revenge from a 101-107 home loss to the Pacers in their first and only meeting this season.  I like them quite a bit here catching 12 points on the road in the rematch. 

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same season loss, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  New York will put up more of a fight than this line suggests tonight.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have really been playing some great basketball.  It was always going to take them some time to gel with Lebron James and all the new faces, but they’ve certainly gelled now.  The Lakers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games overall coming in. 

And I like backing the Lakers off their tough loss to Houston on Thursday.  They have been really good following a loss, going 5-1 SU in their last six games off a loss.  And the Lakers are rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They should be primed for a big effort here. 

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot.  They played an overtime game against the Knicks last night and lost 124-126.  That had to take a lot out of them.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And all five starters played at least 36 minutes last night. 

Charlotte is 6-19 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the lsat 22 meetings.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Charlotte.  Bet the Lakers Saturday. 

15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +4 

The Toronto Raptors are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  They were 8-point dogs to the Warriors, and now they are 4-point favorites at the Blazers.  And they’re certainly in a huge letdown spot off that big win over the Warriors. 

Toronto has some serious injury concerns moving forward.  Kawhi Leonard has been sitting out with a hip injury and is questionable to return tonight.  They haven’t needed him, so I’m not concerned whether he plays or not.  But they just lost Jonas Valanciunas for the next four-to-six weeks with a thumb injury in that win over the Warriors.  He provides much-needed toughness inside, and they’re going to miss him more than what will get factored into the point spread moving forward. 

Portland comes in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Houston and Memphis.  The Blazers had their chances late in both of those games, but finished poorly.  Now they return home, and this team has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage, going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring their opponents by 8.6 points per game in Portland. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 home games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Toronto.  Roll with the Blazers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  I like backing teams who are playing with quick revenge after a recent loss to their opponent.  The Cavs lost 92-108 at Milwaukee as 10-point dogs on Monday, December 10th, and now they are 10.5-point dogs at home in the rematch.  There’s clearly some value here. 

The Cavs are playing very well at home of late.  They beat the Wizards 116-101 outright as 7.5-point dogs, and then the Knicks 113-106 outright as 1.5-point dogs in their last two home games.  And this is a team that is getting healthier with several guys recently returning from injury.  The addition of Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks is also paying dividends as he’s playing big, important minutes and has been a nice role model for rookie sensation Collin Sexton. 

While the Cavs will be highly motivated for revenge on Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a hard time getting up for this game considering they just beat the Cavs by 16 four days ago.  And the Bucks have been a bad bet on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS while only outscoring their opponents by 2.2 points per game on average.  The Cavs are only getting beat by 4.4 points per game at home this year. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games dating back to last season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are having some fun right now.  I’ve watched this team a lot this season and have been impressed with what I’ve seen, especially of late.  They had lost eight straight games, including back-to-back heartbreaking 2-point losses to close out the streak.  But they didn’t give in. 

Since those two 2-point losses, the Nets have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Raptors 106-105 (OT) at home and celebrated like they won the NBA title.  It was fun to see, and this team has just kept on rolling since.  They went on the road and beat the Knicks 112-104 as 2-point dogs, and then upset the 76ers 127-124 as 6-point dogs.  And this is a fresh team right now as the Nets will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Wizards just can’t be trusted.  They have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season at 11-17.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites, by 8 at Indiana as 6-point dogs, and then in OT 125-130 to Boston at home as 3.5-point dogs.  And after playing the Celtics, they certainly won’t get up to face the Nets and this is a ‘hangover’ spot for them.  It’s also a sandwich spot with the Lakers on deck. 

The Nets have had the Wizards’ number in recent meetings, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  In their last two home meetings with the Wizards, the Nets won 119-84 and 103-98, both times winning outright as underdogs.  And they should have no problem covering this short 1.5-point spread at home here tonight.  John Wall is hobbled by an ankle injury and left last game, while Otto Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury after sitting out last game. 

Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  It is losing by a whopping 17.7 points per game on average in this spot.  On the season, the Wizards are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game.  Dating back further, the Wizards are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Nets Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been a great home team this season.  They are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  I like them here quite a bit laying this short number to the Los Angeles Clippers, who have finally come back down to reality here of late. 

The Clippers were the No. 1 team in the West just a short few weeks ago, but they’ve hit a wall.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only win came 123-119 (OT) against the Phoenix Suns, who are far and away the worst team in the West.  The three losses came by 10, 23 and 24 points. 

A big reason the Clippers are going to continue to struggle in the short-term is the loss of Lou Williams (17.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) to a hamstring injury.  He isn’t someone who affects the point spread, but he should.  He is the best 6th man in the league and provides a huge scoring punch for the Clippers’ bench.  Without Williams, the Clippers no longer have the bench advantage they’ve had all season. 

The Spurs are 36-10 SU in their last 46 home meetings with the Clippers.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Spurs winning by 18 and 13 points in their last two home meetings with the Clippers.  The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

San Antonio also wants revenge from a 111-116 road loss to the Clippers in their lone meeting this season on November 15th.  Well, the Spurs are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  Take the Spurs Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  The Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, and they continue to be here.  They are 14-12 SU & 16-10 ATS in all games this season. 

The Kings have really turned it on of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, with three of those wins all coming by 17 points or more.  It’s even more impressive when you consider that four of those five games were on the road. 

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off two straight road games against the Blazers and Warriors.  And after losing to the Warriors on Monday, there’s no way they’ll be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight as they were the defending champs.  Minnesota is just 2-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  That’s why they can’t be favored here. 

Minnesota is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  They are losing by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  Sacramento is 12-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Timberwolves ar e12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days’ rest. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have handled their business at home, going 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 7.5 points per game.  And they’re fully healthy in this one while also coming in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go.  It’s also just their 4th game in 10 days. 

Detroit is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  All five losses have come by 6 points or more, and I think you can chalk up a 6th straight loss by at least 6 points for them here.  The Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 8th game in 13 days.  They are a tired team right now. 

That fatigue has led to some injuries lately that are really holding the Pistons back.  They are without Reggie Bullock (10.1 PPG) and Ish Smith (9.2 PPG), and Stanley Johnson (9.8 PPG) is banged up and questionable with a knee injury.  All three are among their top six scorers this season, so they are very short on depth right now. 

The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pistons, winning all three by 10 points or more and by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Charlotte is 10-2 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The Pistons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +7 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Jimmy Butler, who suffered a groin injury last time out and will miss this game.  After trading away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Butler, and with Markelle Fultz out with a shoulder injury, the 76ers are really short on talent and depth right now. 

The Nets suffered two straight crushing losses to Cleveland (by 2) and Oklahoma City (by 2) to start the month of December.  But they have rallied since, upsetting the Raptors 106-105 as 8.5-point home underdogs.  Then they went on the road the next night and beat the Knicks 112-104.  Now, the Nets are working on three days’ rest having last played on Saturday, so they are primed for a big effort. 

The first two meetings this season show that the Nets have the 76ers’ number.  The Nets won 122-97 as 4-point home underdogs in their first meeting.  Then they let the 76ers off the hook in the 2nd meeting, blowing a 68-54 halftime lead and losing 125-127 as 4.5-point home dogs, so they covered.  And now they’re catching 7 points here in the 3rd meeting and out for revenge for that blown lead, plus they’re rested and up against a depleted 76ers squad. 

Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 17-6 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall when playing on three days’ rest or more.  Brooklyn is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -12.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off back-to-back home wins over the Lakers (133-120) and Jazz (110-97) by 13 points apiece.  And they should have no problem winning by 13 points or more to cover this 12.5-point spread against the Phoenix Suns tonight. 

The Suns are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-123 (OT) loss to the Clippers last night.  I always like looking to fade teams on a back-to-back, especially when they’re coming off an OT game.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for Phoenix.  The Spurs had yesterday off. 

The Suns are without Devin Booker right now, which is a big reason they are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses have come by double-digits, so they’re used to losing by these margins.  They are 1-12 SU & 3-10 ATS on the road this season, losing by 15.2 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Suns.  Their last six home wins have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 19.2 points per game.  San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  After losing in Phoenix in their last meeting this season, the Spurs won’t be taking the Suns lightly tonight.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday. 

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset both the Pelicans and Jazz at home, and throttled the Suns by 17 and the Clippers by 23 on the road. 

The spot is a good one for the Heat tonight.  They didn’t have to travel as they played in Los Angeles on Saturday.  They probably went out Saturday night and had Sunday to recover.  And now they’ll be looking forward to the opportunity of trying to pull the Staples Center sweep tonight.  Plus, they get Goran Dragic back from injury, and they are getting healthy and becoming a very dangerous team because of it. 

The Lakers are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They have won five of their last six while going 4-1-1 ATS in the process.  But it has mostly been against an easy schedule.  And while the Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here, the Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 7 days. 

Miami is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games. 

Plays against home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers will be without two key players in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo tonight as well.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2 

It’s no surprise that the Denver Nuggets have lost two straight games to the Hornets and Hawks coming into this game.  For starters, they just played five straight road games.  And now they’re in their first game back home after being on the road for 10 days.  I always like fading teams in this spot. 

The Nuggets will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  And their injury situation is the biggest reason I’m fading them tonight.  They are without Gary Harris (16.6 PPG), Will Barton (16.5 PPG) and Paul Millsap (13.6 PPG), who are three of their top five scores.  And they may also be without leading scorer Jamal Murray (17.4 PPG), who suffered a shin injury in their loss to the Hawks on Saturday and is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are fully healthy right now with both Mike Conley and Garrett Temple expected to play.  And at full strength and up against a depleted Nuggets squad, the Grizzlies should be favored in this game even though it’s on the road. 

Memphis is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home game this season.  The Grizzlies are 34-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons, so they are in the same situation as the Nuggets, but it doesn’t seem to phase them.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  Take the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and off a bad upset loss at Chicago as 8.5-point favorites.  So they’ll be fresh and ready to go, plus they’ll be highly motivated for a win off that Chicago loss. 

Adding to Oklahoma City’s motivation tonight is the fact that Utah bounced them from the playoffs last year. Paul George had one of the worst games of his career in their 96-91 loss at Utah in Game 6.  He and Russell Westbrook will be looking to make amends.  In fact, I don’t think the Thunder will be more motivated for any other game in the regular season than this one. 

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 97-110 loss in San Antonio last night.  So you have a team playing for a second consecutive day up against a team with two days’ rest.  The Thunder have a huge scheduling advantage in this one to say the least. 

The Thunder are 9-3 at home this season and winning by 8.7 points per game on average.  The Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on zero rest.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  The Thunder are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Jazz.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +4 

The revenge tour of the San Antonio Spurs continues tonight.  They avenged a 113-121 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday with a 133-120 home win over the Lakers on Friday.  And now they’ll be looking to avenge their 105-139 road loss to the Jazz on Tuesday when they get to host Utah this time around. 

San Antonio has gone 71-22 SU in its last 93 home meetings with Utah.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  I don’t think the Spurs should be home dogs tonight, let alone 4-point home dogs. 

The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season.  San Antonio is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -5 

The Raptors are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Nets last time out.  That should have them refocused and ready to go at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They’ll also want revenge from a 109-124 loss at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. 

No team is as equipped to stop Giannis and the Bucks quite like Toronto.  Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the NBA, and he’ll relish the challenge to top Giannis tonight.  I expect a big effort from the Raptors here. 

The Bucks have done most of their damage at home thanks to a home-heavy schedule with 15 home games compared to just 9 road games.  And the Bucks are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. 

Toronto is 14-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

20* T’Wolves/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have lost six of their last eight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The betting public doesn’t want anything to do with them, and these are just the types of teams I’m looking to back. 

The Blazers are coming off a 22-point win over the Suns, though, and now they get star guard CJ McCollum back from injury tonight.  They are 100% healthy and should make easy work of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are getting way too much respect from the books right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Timberwolves, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But those six wins have come against six teams with losing records, so they have simply feasted on an easy schedule.  The only good team they played during this stretch was Boston, and they lost at home. 

The Timberwolves are just 2-8 on the road this season, losing by 7.1 points per game.  The Blazers are 9-4  at home and winning by 8.6 points per game.  Portland is 37-10 SU in its last 47 home meetings with Minnesota, including 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings.  The home team is 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings. 

The Blazers are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering three of its last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  Portland is 9-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over the last two years.  The Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2 

Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are in tough spots tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  However, the Grizzlies have had more rest over the last few weeks, so they are the preferred side here.  The Grizzlies will be playing their 5th game in 11 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. 

The Lakers have been pretty dreadful on the road this season at 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  They lost by 13 to the Spurs last night and by 32 to the Nuggets in their last two road games.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  And they basically just have to win this game to cover the spread. 

Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they are playing without two key players right now in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo.  Given this tough rest situation, their lack of depth to make up for those two key losses is huge.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies tonight.  The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when their Starting 5 combines for more than 160 minutes played the previous day. 

Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS vs. good ball-handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Lakers are 4-13 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the past two seasons.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three years.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2.5 

There are so many factors favoring the Knicks to win and cover tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.  I’ll gladly lay the short number with them here at home in a game they should win in blowout fashion. 

The Knicks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  This is a tired, vulnerable Nets team right now, especially after going into overtime last night.

The Nets are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall.  But they did upset the Raptors 106-105 at home last night.  However, that works against them now because it’s a letdown spot after beating the team with the best record in the NBA.  They won’t get up for the Knicks nearly as much as they were up for the Raptors last night, and they certainly won’t have much left in the tank for the Knicks. 

The Knicks own the Nets, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won by 19 at home earlier this season, and by 16 in their final home meeting last season.  They also won by 21 in their first home meetings last season.  Each of their last five wins in this series have come by 7 points or more, including four by double-digits. 

Brooklyn is 0-7 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  It is losing by 8.4 points per game on average in this spot.  The Nets are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when playing on zero rest.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with Brooklyn. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3 

What more do the Dallas Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here?  Until they do, I’ll keep backing them as home underdogs tonight against the Houston Rockets, who have no business being favored with the way they are playing right now. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  They have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Celtics, Clippers and Blazers at home during this stretch, so it’s not like they are feasting on weak competition.  And now the Mavericks have two days’ rest to get ready for the Rockets after last playing on Wednesday. 

The Rockets are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a 27-point loss to the Jazz, which is their fourth loss by at least 9 points during this stretch.  One of those was at home against the Mavericks on November 28th as the Mavs won 128-108 as 5.5-point dogs, covering the spread by 25.5 points. 

The Mavs are 7-0 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven when heir opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  And add in that the Mavericks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games, and we have a combined 29-0 system backing Dallas in this one.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I think the Bulls are a ‘bet on’ team in the immediate future right now.  That’s because they fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and getting a new voice will be good for them as veteran assistant Jim Boylen has taken over the reigns.  I cashed in the Bulls +8.5 against the Pacers on Wednesday, and I’m back on them again tonight. 

I don’t think Hoiberg got a fair shake, but he clearly wasn’t getting through to his players.  And now Boylen takes over just in time for their best player in Lauri Markkanen returning from injury.  This will be his third game back from injury after missing the first 23 games of the season.  And the Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here. 

Oklahoma City will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here.  The Thunder erased an 88-65 deficit to beat the Nets 114-112 as 6-point road favorites on Wednesday thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Paul George.  I think the Thunder are way overvalued right now, and this is definitely a ‘hangover’ spot for them off that huge comeback win. 

Oklahoma City is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 games following a road win by 3 points or less.  Chicago is 14-3 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive losses are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They sit at 12-11 on the season and will win their third straight game here against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.  I love the spot for the Kings as they are rested and ready to go, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  It will also be just their 4th game in 12 days. 

The Cavaliers are a tired team right now, which has contributed to their 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS record in their last six games overall.  They will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  They are coming off a 105-129 home loss to the Warriors, and that makes this a ‘hangover’ spot for them after playing the defending champs. 

The Cavs are decimated by injuries right now.  Kevin Love, Sam Dekker, JR Smith and David Nwaba are all out.  Plus, they traded Kyle Korver to the Jazz.  These injuries have taken their toll, especially since the Cavaliers were already short on talent coming into the season.  And their lack of depth is really catching up to them now. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Cleveland is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last three years.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Cleveland.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Kings Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1 

The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much love for going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They’re now road favorites over the Hornets tonight and they shouldn’t be.  I think this is a great spot to fade the Nuggets, who will be playing their 4th straight road games and are coming off an overtime win over the Magic.  Four of their seven wins during this streak have either come by 3 points or less or in OT. 

I love the spot for the Hornets.  They’ll be highly motivated for a win off three straight losses to Utah, New Orleans and Minnesota.  And they will be rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They are primed for one of their best efforts of the season.  Plus, the Nuggets will be without leading scorer Gary Harris tonight, and his absence is a big one. 

The Hornets have had the Nuggets’ number in recent seasons.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings.  They won 110-93 as 2-point home underdogs last year, and 122-114 at home the season prior.  The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Charlotte. 

Plays on underdogs (Charlotte) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games on the season.  Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six Friday games.  Bet the Hornets Friday.  

20* Rockets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2 

The Utah Jazz were knocked out of the playoffs by the Houston Rockets last year.  Their revenge tour doesn’t stop just because they won 100-89 in Houston earlier this season.  They want to kick the Rockets while they’re down and win at home here tonight as mere 2-point home favorites. 

This is a Rockets team that’s really struggling right now.  They have gone just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They’ve lost to the likes of the Pistons, Cavs, Wizards, Mavericks and Timberwolves.  Their only wins came against the Bulls and struggling Spurs. 

The Jazz are playing better now that their best player in Donovan Mitchell is healthy.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming on the road by two points.  Their three wins came by a total of 52 points, or by an average of 17.3 points per game. 

The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Quin Snyder is 37-19 ATS when playing against a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games as the coach of Utah.  Bet the Jazz Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -2 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of their last five games coming in.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, so they were competitive in every game.  But I really like this game because of a couple other factors as well, including rest and revenge. 

The Grizzlies are clearly the more rested team.  They will be playing on two days’ rest having last played on Sunday.  Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in 8 days.  Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game. 

The Grizzlies want revenge from their 107-112 (OT) loss at the Clippers on November 23rd less than two weeks ago.  Since that game is fresh in their minds, revenge is a factor.  And given their rest advantage, they should be able to win at home this time around after losing in OT on the road in the last matchup.  Keep in mind the Clippers were coming in on two days’ rest prior to that win as well. 

The Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7 

I think this is a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘sell high’ on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This number has been inflated because the Thunder have been covering machines lately, while the Nets have been big point spread losers. 

Indeed, the Thunder are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall, while the Nets are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Oddsmakers have to adjust for these trends, and I think they have over-corrected here tonight. 

The Nets gave the Thunder all they wanted in both meetings last year.  The Nets won 100-95 as 7-point dogs on a neutral court in their first meeting.  They only lost 108-109 as 9.5-point dogs at Oklahoma City in the second meeting. 

Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Thunder.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I know the Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after their 105-90 win in Miami last night.  But it’s short travel, and they had three days off prior to that game.  So they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here, which clearly negates this back-to-back situation.  And the Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on zero rest. 

The Nuggets are being overvalued right now due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are in a huge letdown spot here off their 106-103 road win over the Raptors on Monday.  I don’t think they’ll be nearly as excited to face the Magic on the road tonight as they were the Raptors. 

The Magic have been grossly undervalued for a month now, and it hasn’t stopped.  They have gone 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs six times during this stretch, and they’ve been a dog in 11 of those 13 games.  And now they are 5.5-point home dogs here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, in December games are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Spurs/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8.5 

The Utah Jazz aren’t playing well enough to be laying 8.5 points to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are just 7-11 SU & 7-11 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I’ll gladly fade them here as massive favorites over the Spurs tonight. 

I think the Jazz are a tired team right now.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days tonight.  And they’ve been on the road for 10 of their last 12 games coming in.  All this travel is certainly wearing on this team.  And they have the distractions from returning home from that long road trip, dealing with friends and family back home. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in December games are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Spurs Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5 

I always like backing teams in their first game with a new head coach because they seem to respond well.  And I expect that to be the case for the Chicago Bulls here tonight.  They fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and now longtime NBA assistant Jim Boylen takes over.  Boylen was an assistant coach under Frank Vogel and the Pacers from 2011-13. 

The Bulls also recently got back their best player in big man Lauir Markkanen, who scored 10 points in 26 minutes in his season debut against the Rockets after missing each of team’s first 23 games with an elbow injury.  Markkanen is expected to start Tuesday after coming off the bench against the Rockets. 

The Pacers have been without guard Victor Oladipo for the past seven games due to a knee injury.  He remains out tonight.  The Pacers have gone just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games with one of their wins coming against the lowly Suns by 5 points.  They can’t be laying 8.5 points tonight to the Bulls without Oladipo. 

Plays on underdogs (Chicago) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in December games over the past two seasons.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5 

The Houston Rockets have been very good when Chris Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela have been on the floor at the same time.  They’ve been dreadful without one or more of them.  Well, all three are healthy, and the Rockets are as healthy as they’ve been all season right now. 

It has started to show in their play the past two games as well.  They went into San Antonio and won by 31 as 4-point favorites.  Then they handled their business at home against Chicago in a 16-point win as 13-point favorites.  And I expect them to go on the road and beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota played well without Jimmy Butler for a while, but it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later.  And they lost to the Celtics 109-118 at home as 1.5-point favorites last time out.  That was a Celtics team in a tough spot playing the second of a back-to-back. 

The Timberwolves are simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers because of their recent success without Butler, but it has come against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland and San Antonio.  This is a big step up in class, just like the Celtics were. 

The Rockets have simply owned the Timberwolves, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings.  Houston is 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games following seven or more consecutive overs.  Roll with the Rockets Monday. 

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2 

The New York Knicks have been flying under the radar in recent weeks. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and I’ve been on them for the majority of the wins.  And now they’re once again undervalued as home underdogs to the struggling Washington Wizards when they shouldn’t be. 

The Knicks have four outright upsets as 7.5-point dogs or more in their last seven games, which just shows how undervalued they’ve been.  They won outright on the road as 14.5-point dogs at Boston and 8-point dogs at Memphis.  They also won outright at home as 7.5-point dogs against New Orleans and 8-point dogs against Milwaukee. 

The Wizards are 9-14 SU & 8-14-1 ATS this season.  They have really struggled on the road, going 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS while getting outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game in the process.  They play zero defense on the road, giving up 122.4 points per game.  I just don’t agree with them being favorites here given their road woes and how well the Knicks are playing. 

Washington is 6-21 ATS in road games against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +2.5 

The Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to the Lakers and Grizzlies. 

The Mavs are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, beating the Wizards, Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Nets and Celtics along the way.  So they have beaten some of the league’s best teams at home during this stretch.  They also won at Houston by 20 as 5.5-point underdogs. 

The Clippers are the team that’s starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after their surprising 15-6 start to the season.  They have won eight of their last nine coming in, but most of that has come against the league’s worst teams.  Now they are road favorites over the Mavs when they shouldn’t be. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Mavs have won 29 of their last 40 home meetings with the Clippers.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5 

The New York Knicks have been grossly underrated over the last few weeks.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes outright road upsets over Boston as 14.5-point dogs, Memphis as 8-point dogs, and a home upset of New Orleans as 7.5-point dogs. 

I’ve been riding the Knicks for the majority of these games.  Their only non-cover was against the 76ers last time out, but that was the second of a back-to-back and a tough spot.  They have now had two days’ rest since playing the 76ers on Wednesday and should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight. 

The Bucks are starting to be grossly overrated due to their hot start to the season.  They are 15-6 on the season, but just 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  They lost outright to the Suns as 13.5-point home favorites, and outright to the Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites.  They only beat the Spurs by 6 as 10-point home favorites and the Bulls by 3 as 15-point home favorites.  And now they are massive 8.5-point road favorites against the Knicks tonight, which is simply too much. 

New York wants revenge from a 113-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point underdogs in their first meeting of the season on October 22nd.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. 

Plays against any team (Milwaukee) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in Saturday games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -12 

The Boston Celtics are a good ‘buy low’ candidate right now. They have gotten off to a disappointing 11-10 start this season, but they are starting to play up to their potential.  They beat Atlanta by 18 on the road and New Orleans by 17 on the road in winning two of their last three coming in. 

Now the Celtics are well-rested and ready to go having last played on Monday, coming in on three days’ rest.  Meanwhile, they’ll be playing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  So the Celtics should have a huge advantage in the rest department here. 

And I haven’t even factored in that the Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the NBA yet.  Cleveland is 4-16 this season, including 1-9 on the road where they are losing by an average of double-digits per game.  They are coming off a 17-point loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. 

Boston is 12-1 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games coming in over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games.  Take the Celtics Friday.