Sports Picks & Predictions

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5 

I have no doubt we’re going to get a big effort from the San Antonio Spurs tonight for a couple different reasons.  They are catching too many points at Denver as a result tonight. 

The Spurs have opened 0-4 on this annual Rodeo Road Trip and are desperate for a victory.  They also want revenge after getting knocked out by the Nuggets in Game 7 of the opening round of the playoffs last year.  This is their first meeting of the season and their first shot at revenge. 

Injuries have definitely been a problem for the Nuggets here of late.  They are without Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr. and Mason Plumlee right now to hurt their depth.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets after they have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Denver is 6-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  San Antonio is 43-23 ATS in its last 66 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 trips to Denver.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6.5 

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost a season-high five straight coming into this game and are desperate for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. 

Victor Oladipo recently returned from injury and the chemistry has been off for the Pacers.  But now that he has five games under his belt, he should start returning to form sooner rather than later.  And the Pacers just got leading scorer TJ Warren (18.2 PPG) back from injury after missing three games.  They are fully healthy as a team for the first time all season. 

The Nets are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight after going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those four wins all came at home against four of the worst teams in the league in the Pistons, Bulls, Suns and Warriors.  They have lost their last three road games to the Pistons, Wizards and Raptors.  So they have played a very soft schedule here of late. 

Indiana owns Brooklyn, going 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Brooklyn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.  Indiana is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Celtics/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve as basically a pick ‘em at home against the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Thunder are 21-6 SU in their last 27 games overall and playing as well as almost anyone. 

The Celtics also come in playing well having won six straight.  But four of those six wins were at home and it has come against a pretty soft schedule with victories over the Hawks (twice), Magic and Warriors.  This is a big step up in class for the Celtics tonight. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boston) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6-plus points per game, after three straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  Take the Thunder Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -8 

Fading the Timberwolves is the gift that keeps on giving.  They are 0-13 SU & 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They just made a desperate move and traded away Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell, who likely won’t play tonight with a quad injury.  They have also traded away Jeff Teague and Robert Covington, and the players left outside of Karl-Anthony Towns is a mess. 

The Clippers are starting to play up to their potential as they are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Five of those wins have come by double-digits, and they should have no time putting away Minnesota by doubles tonight as well.  They come in on two days’ rest so they should be fresh and ready to go. 

Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on two days’ rest.  Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in home games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Timberwolves are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  The Clippers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

20* Raptors/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +1 

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses and highly motivated for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business at home, where they are 18-7 SU on the season. 

Adding to their motivation is this home-and-home situation after they lost a 118-119 heartbreaker in Toronto Wednesday night.  Not only did they lose, they blew a 19-point lead in that game.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later, and I look for them to take advantage. 

Toronto is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning 12 straight games coming in.  This is a great time to ’sell high’ on them knowing that the Pacers will be the more motivated team in this matchup to avenge that 1-point loss. 

Indiana is 35-21 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 15-1 SU in the last 16 meetings.  And Indiana just has to win to cover tonight.  Take the Pacers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +6 

The Memphis Grizzlies are the gift that keeps on giving.  The Grizzlies are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with several impressive wins against the league’s top teams alone the way.  And they’re still lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. 

It’s a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 101-112 loss at Milwaukee last night.  The 76ers won’t be nearly as motivated as they were to face the Bucks, and they won’t have much left in the tank to deal with a Grizzlies team that plays at one of the fastest tempos in the NBA. 

It’s a 76ers team in turmoil.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming by double-digits.  The injury to their best shooter in Josh Richardson hurts, and they are going through some changes with the trades they made to get Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks.  It’s going to take them a while to gel even if those two play tonight. 

Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Memphis is 15-4 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off an ATS win.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off two straight tough losses to the Rockets and Bucks in which they were competitive for four quarters.  Look for them to bounce back tonight against the lowly Chicago Bulls. 

The Pelicans have been playing well for nearly two months.  They are 13-8 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  And now they are as healthy as they have been all season, making them a dangerous team moving forward.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Chicago. 

Few teams have been hit as hard by injuries as the Bulls.  It’s a big reason they are just 6-13 SU & 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Their last three losses have come by 27, 15 and 9 points coming in.  They are without Markkanen, Carter Jr., Porter Jr., Dunn, Gafford and Valentine right now. 

New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 2-11 ATS in home games when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  The Bulls are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Chicago is 17-37 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Take the Pelicans Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +3 

I really like the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and should not be home underdogs to the Orlando Magic tonight. 

They face a tired, banged-up Magic team that is just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Magic are coming off a 100-116 loss in Boston last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. 

New York is 13-2 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 14-6 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this year.  The Magic are 0-8 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +5 

The Dallas Mavericks are without their best player in Luka Doncic (28.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.7 APG) as well as Dwight Powell (9.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG).  They could be without both Seth Curry (10.8 PPG) and JJ Barea (8.9 PPG), who are both questionable tonight. 

I realize the Mavericks have played well without Donic.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.  But I think that has them overvalued here tonight against a Memphis Grizzlies team that I have no doubt is better than them without Doncic, Powell and potentially Curry and Barea. 

The Grizzlies are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight following a 14-point home win over the Pistons.  I just love the way this team is playing right now as they continue to be undervalued. 

Memphis is 14-4 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots this season.  The Mavericks are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and have actually fared much better on the road than at home this season.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games off an ATS win.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

20* Bucks/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing very well right now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming at Houston after they blew a 4th quarter lead and finished the game on a 0-for-11 run from 3-point range. 

It’s pretty clear you’re having to pay a tax to back the Milwaukee Bucks due to having the league’s best record at 42-7.  The Bucks have gone just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall and are now laying 7 points on the road to a Pelicans team that is much better than their record would indicate. 

The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  New Orleans is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  New Orleans is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets will make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight.  I’m not worried that they lost Kyrie Irving to injury because they aren’t any worse off without him.  They play more as a team without Irving on the court. 

This is definitely a play against the Phoenix Suns, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing in Milwaukee Sunday.  It’s a really banged up Suns team with six players either out or questionable for this game, including Rubio, Baynes and Saric. 

The Nets are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The Suns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Phoenix is 6-18 ATS after tailing by 15 points or more at halftime in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Nets Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are 21-3 at home this season and should be more than 2.5-point favorites over the 76ers tonight.  Their only three home losses have come to the Celtics, Lakers and Clippers, which are three of the best teams in the NBA. 

I don’t consider the 76ers an elite team because they can’t win on the road.  Philadelphia is 9-17 SU & 9-16-1 ATS in all road games this season.  And you can just imagine the distractions the 76ers are dealing with after spending Super Bowl night in Miami. 

Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss this season.  Miami is 10-1 ATS in home games off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Philadelphia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Heat are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 home games.  Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take the Heat Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -4.5 

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad home loss to the New York Knicks as 11-point favorites.  They come back highly motivated for a win here because of it.  And the Pacers are a rested team playing just their 3rd game in 8 days as well. 

The Dallas Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse is the injuries piling up for the Mavericks.  They just recently lost Dwight Powell to a season-ending injury, and now both Luka Doncic and Seth Curry are both out Monday.  The Mavericks do not have the firepower to hang with the Pacers without this trio. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Mavericks.  The Mavericks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS win.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

15* Pelicans/Rockets ABC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +5.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and gotten Zion Williamson into the lineup.  The results have been impressive since.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Celtics by 15, the Cavs by 14 and the Grizzlies by 28. 

The Houston Rockets just aren’t playing well at all right now.  They are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  And they are without their stud center in Clint Capela, who is more important to them than he gets credit for. 

Houston is 2-10 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pelicans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.  New Orleans is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Pelicans are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Pelicans Sunday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5 

The Boston Celtics have rallied since losing three straight and have been playing determined basketball since.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 32-point win over the Lakers, a 24-point win over the Grizzlies and an 8-point win at Miami.  The five wins have come by an average of 18.0 points per game. 

It’s well documented that the Philadelphia 76ers struggle on the road, yet they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the highway.  The 76ers are just 9-16 SU & 9-15-1 ATS in their 25 road games this season.  The Celtics have gone 19-5 SU at home. 

The Celtics will be highly motivated for revenge after losing all three meetings with the 76ers this season.  They want to avoid the sweep in the worst way, and I think they will be as motivated for this game as they have been for any game this season, so I know I’m going to get their best effort here. 

The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5 

The Detroit Pistons are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 125-115 home win over the Pistons and should make easy work of the Chicago Bulls tonight. 

The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  They are coming off an overtime loss at Indiana.  And while the Nets are fully healthy, the Bulls have 11 guys on their injury report and will be without three of their best players in Markkanen, Carter Jr. and Porter Jr. 

The Nets own the Bulls, going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five Friday games.  Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday games.  Bet the Nets Friday. 

15* Jazz/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -1

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They lost to the Spurs 120-127 last night as 5-point favorites, and also lost to the Rockets 117-126 as 14.5-point home favorites on Monday. 

The Nuggets are 18-6 at home this season and have been the best home team in the NBA over the past two seasons.  This is a very short number to be laying with them tonight.  And I like that they’ll be motivated off their loss at Memphis on Tuesday. 

The Nuggets are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The home team is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 16-3 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Denver.  Roll with the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +7 

The Philadelphia 76ers have been dynamite at home, but they are just 9-15 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are laying too many points here against a feisty Atlanta Hawks team that brings is every night. 

They Hawks are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games.  They beat the Wizards 152-133 as 1-point favorites, upset the Clippers 102-95 as 5-point dogs and nearly upset the Raptors in a 117-122 loss as 8.5-point dogs.  So they can hang with a team like the 76ers, who will be without two starters in Al Horford and Josh Richardson tonight. 

The Hawks are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the 76ers despite being at least a 4.5-point underdog in all four.  Their only loss came earlier this season by a final of 103-105 as 6.5-point dogs. 

The 76ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the 76ers.  Take the Hawks Thursday. 

20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland +2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got CJ McCollum back in the lineup from an ankle injury last time out.  They also picked up Trevor Ariza.  The Blazers promptly pulled off an impressive 139-129 home win over the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. 

Now the Blazers come in on two days’ rest and should be fresh and ready to go.  They host a Houston Rockets team that has both James Harden and Clint Capela listed as questionable with injuries.  I like the Blazers whether or not these two play, but it would be an added bonus if they didn’t. 

The Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Rockets.  Portland beat Houston 117-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs in their last meeting on January 15th.  Both meetings thus far this season have been in Houston.  But the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Portland. 

Houston is 22-45-1 ATS in its last 68 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a much tougher situation than the one the Blazers are in.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +7.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are in a tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They are coming off two tough road games at Utah and Oklahoma City and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Phoenix Suns are playing some solid basketball here of late in going 5-4 SU in their last nine games overall.  They have gotten healthier and just upset the Spurs on the road before losing by 5 at Memphis in their last two games coming in.  And now they’ll take this tired Mavericks team to the wire tonight. 

The Suns are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Mavericks.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Dallas.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The Mavericks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Dallas is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Suns Tuesday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Golden State Warriors +12 

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a huge upset home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a great time to fade them in an obvious letdown spot against the team with the worst record in the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors tonight. 

Philadelphia is also likely to be without Joel Embiid again tonight, and they are also without starter Josh Richardson, who is their best shooter and averages 15.0 points per game.  I just don’t think they have the horses or the motivation to put the Warriors away by this kind of margin tonight. 

Golden State comes in rested and ready to go.  The Warriors are working on three days’ rest having last played on Friday.  And they are as healthy as they have been all season now.  Look for a big effort from them tonight because of it. 

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Warriors Tuesday. 

20* Mavs/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing too well to be home underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  The Thunder are 13-4 SU & 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  I’ll gladly side with them as home dogs to the Mavericks tonight. 

The Mavericks have lost two of their last three to the Clippers and Jazz.  They just lost key role player Dwight Powell to a season-ending Achilles injury, and he’s more important to the team than he gets credit for because he’s been so good in the pick and roll.  He shoots 63.5% from the field and gets easy buckets consistently off Doncic pick-and-rolls. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series.  The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Thunder won outright as 2.5-point dogs in their first and only meeting this season at home against the Mavs by a final of 106-101 on December 31st. 

The Mavericks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5 

The New York Knicks have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They took the likes of the 76ers, Lakers and Raptors all to the wire during this stretch to prove what they are capable of. 

Look for the Knicks to get a victory tonight over a tired Brooklyn Nets team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse for the Nets is that they had to go to overtime with the Pistons yesterday. 

The Nets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. New York is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 home meetings.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* Lakers/76ers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have been the best road team in the NBA this season.  They are 20-4 SU in road games, so I’m not worried at all about laying this short number with them on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

I know the 76ers are great at home, but they just have some injuries right now that aren’t going to allow them to compete with the Lakers.  They are without their best player in Joel Embiid (23.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG) and also are now without their best shooter in Josh Richardson (15.0 PPG), who just suffered a hamstring injury last time out. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days’ rest.  Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Philadelphia.  Take the Lakers Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA.  They have gone 18-2 SU in their last 20 games overall and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  We are getting the Jazz real cheap as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  Especially since they’re rested on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday. 

The Mavericks are getting some respect from the books because they are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they lost to the best team they faced in the Clippers and the other five wins came against the Blazers (twice), Kings, Warriors and 76ers (at home). 

The Mavericks just lost a key player in Dwight Powell to a season-ending Achilles injury, while the Jazz are fully healthy right now.  The Jazz are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Mavericks.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with Dallas winning by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

The Mavericks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Jazz Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4 

The New Orleans Pelicans lost their first game with Zion Williamson in the lineup Wednesday on National TV.  They ran into a hot Spurs team and fell 117-121.  I expect the Pelicans to get back on track tonight with a win and cover against the Denver Nuggets. 

The Pelicans are 10-5 SU & 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are fully healthy for the first time all season.  They are going to be a dangerous team moving forward as they have one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. 

The Denver Nuggets are far from healthy.  They are without Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee while both Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. are questionable.  They have lost two of their last three by 8 at home to Indiana and by 15 at Houston.  They needed overtime to beat lowly Golden State and also won by just 7 at lowly Minnesota. 

The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Denver.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -8 

The Toronto Raptors have had five key players miss 10 or more games this year in Siakam, Lowry, VanVleet, Gasol and Powell.  It’s amazing they’ve been able to go 30-14 to this point with all these injuries. 

But the Raptors returned everyone basically five games ago.  And it’s no coincidence they’ve gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game.  Expect another blowout win over the lowly New York Knicks tonight. 

The Raptors own the Knicks, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings while winning those seven games by an average of a whopping 23.0 points per game.  Dating back further, the Raptors are 15-1 SU in their last 16 meetings with the Knicks with 12 of those wins coming by double-digits. 

The Raptors are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Knicks are 7-20 ATS in in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Raptors Friday. 

20* Mavs/Blazers TNT No-Brainer on Portland +4.5 

I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They want revenge from a 112-120 road loss to Dallas just six days ago on January 17th.  Now they get their chance at revenge at home this time around. 

The Blazers come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  Both Hassan Whiteside and Trevor Ariza will be available for them tonight, and CJ McCollum could return from an ankle injury as he has been upgraded to questionable. 

The Mavericks lost a key piece in Dwight Powell in their last game against the Clippers.  It’s a season-ending Achilles injury.  Powell is one of the most underrated players in the NBA and does a lot for this team that goes unnoticed.  He’s great in the pick-and-roll and shoots 63.8% from the field. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - a cold team failing to cover 12 or more of their last 15 against an opponent that covered three of their last four are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 

This is a very favorable spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They should be able to handle the Washington Wizards at home. 

The Wizards are coming off an overtime loss at Miami last night.  Washington will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Wizards will not have much left in the tank after that overtime defeat. 

Washington is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take the Cavaliers Thursday. 

15* Jazz/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Golden State Warriors.  They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall.  But they are getting healthier now and as a result they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And now they are catching too many points at home tonight. 

Conversely, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Utah Jazz.  They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall and have gone 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You are now clearly paying a tax to back the Jazz as 8.5-point road favorites here.  And keep in mind that 15 of those 17 wins came against teams with losing records so they have feasted on a soft schedule. 

The Warriors recently got D’Angelo Russell back from injury and now they will get both Draymond Green (8.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Glenn Robinson III (12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) back from injury tonight.  The Warriors will give the Jazz a run for their money in this one.  After all, they’ve taken the Bucks, Clippers, Nuggets and Blazers to the wire during their 5-2 ATS run. 

Golden State is 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  They only lost 109-113 and 106-114 at Utah in both meetings this season.  The Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Golden State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday. 

20* 76ers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -7 

The Raptors have been without five key players this season that have impacted them, especially in the last few weeks.  Siakam has missed 11 games, VanVleet 10, Lowry 10, Gasol 12 and Powell 11.  It’s amazing the Raptors have been able to compile a 29-14 record with all these injuries. 

But the Raptors revenge got everyone back healthy about four games ago.  It’s no coincidence they have gone 4-0 while winning those four games by an average of 13.3 points per game.  And three of those four games were on the road.  This is a dangerous Raptors team moving forward now that they are healthy. 

The 76ers have also won four straight without Joel Embiid and remain without him.  But the four wins came against the Nets (twice), Knicks and Bulls and they all went down to the wire in the 4th quarter.  Now this is a big step up in class for the 76ers, and they won’t be able to hang with the healthy Raptors without Embiid. 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with Philadelphia.  Toronto is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. division opponents.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

This is a big letdown spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They came back from 15 points down to beat the Rockets on Monday, 112-107.  That’s a rivalry game for them with the swapping of Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook in the offseason.   

The Thunder won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight.  And they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now that will make matters worse for them.  Terrance Ferguson and Abdel Nader are out, while Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel are both questionable. 

The Magic are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they are 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off a 23-point road win at Charlotte.  Nikola Vucevic will have his way in the paint against the Thunder if Adams is unable to go. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after making 12 or more 3-pointers last game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after allowing 85 points or less are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Dallas -1.5 

Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last 10 games for the Mavericks.  There’s a great chance he returns tonight.  The timing makes sense as the Mavericks come in on three days’ rest after last playing on Friday, giving Porzingis a few extra days to heal. 

The Mavericks have been playing well without him in going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  And now they want revenge from a 99-114 loss to the Clippers in their first meeting this season.  The Mavericks have gone 31-12 SU in their last 43 home meetings with the Clippers. 

Los Angeles will remain without Paul George tonight.  The Clippers haven’t exactly been juggernauts on the road this season.  They are 11-9 SU but 9-11 ATS.  And while they’ve won five of their last six coming in, the five wins have all come against teams with losing records in the Knicks (by 3), Warriors (by 9), Cavaliers, Magic and Pelicans (by 3).  The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Dallas is 17-5 ATS off a home game this season.  Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a win.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Clippers.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +6.5 

The Golden State Warriors have been much more competitive here of late.  They have recent losses to the Bucks and Clippers by single digits as double-digit dogs.  They upset the Magic last time out as 6-point dogs and they took the Nuggets to overtime as dog. 

I think the Warriors can hang with a depleted Portland Trail Blazers team that is missing Nurkic, Hood, Collins, Labissiere, McCollum and Ariza.  These injuries are a big reason the Blazers are just 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  And it’s a tired Blazers team that hasn’t has two consecutive days off since Christmas, making matters worse. 

The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Portland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss.  Take the Warriors Monday. 

20* Pelicans/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on Memphis -2.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are playing their best basketball of the season as they’ve upset the likes of the Clippers by 26 on the road as well as the Spurs by 13 and the Rockets by 11 at home during this stretch. 

It’s going to be a great atmosphere on Martin Luther King Day in this home game against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  No city celebrates MLK day quite like Memphis does as it means a lot more to their community than most with his assassination taking place in Memphis. 

The Pelicans are also playing well, but this is a very tough spot for them.  They are coming off an OT win against the Jazz followed by a 3-point loss to the Clippers at home.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies, who are playing on two days’ rest and just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

Memphis is 8-0 ATS off two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans, who ranks 29th in scoring defense at 117.7 points per game, won’t be able to cool off the Grizzlies tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 

The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in against a brutal schedule with home games against the Pacers and Raptors, as well as four road games against the Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers & Suns.   

Not to mention, the Hornets had road games against the Cavs and Mavericks in the two games prior where they pulled off two upsets.  They get a break in their schedule here hosting the Orlando Magic and coming in on four days’ rest having last played on January 15th. 

The Magic are in a very tough spot.  They will be playing their 6th straight road game tonight and their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are without starting PG D.J. Augustin right now while the Hornets are fully healthy.  I really believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. 

The Hornets simply own the Magic.  Charlotte is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Orlando.  The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +1.5 

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They want revenge from a 100-106 loss at Miami just a few days ago on January 15th.  Now they get their chance at revenge just four days later at home this time around. 

Adding to the Spurs’ motivation is the fact that they are coming off a 120-121 home loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter.  They had been playing some great basketball prior to those two games in going 9-4 ATS in their previous 13 games. 

San Antonio is 32-8 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two season.  The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  San Antonio is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss.  The Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs.  Roll with the Spurs Sunday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5 

The Utah Jazz had their 10-game winning streak come to an end with a 132-138 (OT) loss at New Orleans on Thursday.  I always like fading teams that have their long winning streaks come to an end because it’s the kind of loss that seems to beat them twice.  They take a breathe of air and don’t play well in the next game out. 

While it is impressive that the Jazz have won 15 of their last 17 games overall, keep in mind it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the NBA.  In fact, 14 of those 15 wins came against teams with losing records.  Now they are way overvalued and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them. 

The Jazz would have to beat the Kings by double-digits to beat us now, which is asking way too much.  Especially since the Kings are almost back to 100% health with only Richaun Holmes still sidelined.  They get Bogdan Bogdanovic back from an injury Saturday and recently got back Marvin Bagley and a few others.  The Kings will be a dangerous team moving forward. 

The Jazz have to be a tired team as they haven’t had two days off in a row since over New Year’s Eve.  And they are coming off a three-game road trip.  The Kings will be playing just their 4th game in 11 days and will be by far the fresher team tonight. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a hot team having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Kings are 15-5 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Sacramento is 24-9 ATS after losing three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 12-3 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two years.  Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Kings are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Sacramento is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Utah.  Take the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 

I know the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after beating the Bulls 100-89 last night.  But the line has been adjusted too much for it as the 76ers are only 3.5-point favorites over the lowly New York Knicks tonight. 

The 76ers shouldn’t be all that tired anyway considering they have had a lot of time off in January.  In fact, it will be just the 8th game in 18 days in the month of January for the 76ers.  They should have enough left in the tank to make easy work of the Knicks tonight. 

The Knicks have some injury problems right now as they are missing RJ Barrett and Reggie Bullock and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable.  They did just get back Marcus Morris, but it didn’t matter in a 98-121 home loss to the Suns on Thursday.  The Knicks are now just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall with each of their last five losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 23 points per game. 

The 76ers have owned the Knicks going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins by 3 points or more and nine by 5 points or more.  Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the 76ers Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -8 

No team is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14 points per game.  That includes wins over the Clippers (by 26), Spurs (by 13) and Rockets (by 11). 

Now the Grizzlies are rested with two days off since last defeating the Rockets on Tuesday.  They should be able to handle their business against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is coming off two straight losses by 29 and 25 points.  The Cavaliers will be playing their 5th straight road game in this difficult spot. 

Memphis is 10-2 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Cavaliers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games off an ATS loss.  The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 100 or more points, off a home win by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday. 

20* Bulls/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -7 

The Philadelphia 76ers are 19-2 at home this season and winning by 9.8 points per game.  They have been a good bet at home even without Joel Embiid.  They won by 11 over the Nets and also by 11 over the Celtics in their last two home games without Embiid.   

Now the 76ers should be able to cover this 7-point spread against the Chicago Bulls at home tonight.  With this game being played on National TV on ESPN, they won’t take the Bulls lightly.  The 76ers are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bulls, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings winning by 16, 19 and 14 points. 

The Bulls are just 2-7 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only wins coming against the Pistons and Wizards, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference.  Six of those seven losses came by 7 points or more. 

The Bulls are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games following a win.  Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Bet the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +5 

Two red hot teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  But only one of these hot teams is getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that’s the Jazz as the 5-point road favorite. 

The Jazz are playing great with 10 straight wins and 15 of their last 16 overall.  But with that success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to.  But keep in mind that 14 of those 15 wins came against teams with losing records, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only losses came on the road to the Lakers and Celtics and at home to the Jazz.  Well, that was a 126-128 loss to the Jazz on January 6th, so now the Pelicans are going to be highly motivated for a win in the rematch tonight just 10 days later. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a hot team having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  New Orleans gets Brandon Ingram and Derrick Favors back from injury tonight and JJ Redick could be back as well.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers -7 

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off two straight road losses to the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks.  They return home highly motivated for a victory tonight and pretty rested as this will be just their 6th game in 15 days. 

I know the 76ers are without Joel Embiid, but they won their last home game 109-98 over the Boston Celtics as 1-point favorites without him.  The 76ers are now 18-2 at home this season and winning by 9.7 points per game.  Philadelphia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in then last five meetings while winning by 22 points in each of their last two home meetings with Brooklyn. 

It’s a bad spot for the Brooklyn Nets.  They are coming off a 107-118 home loss to Utah last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Nets are just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  Philadelphia is 30-16 ATS in home games revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA TV No-Brainer on Memphis +5.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 12-6 SU & 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They have won five straight coming in including road upsets of the Clippers and Suns. 

The Houston Rockets are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  They lost at New Orleans by 15, at Golden State by 12 as 11-point favorites, at Oklahoma City by 21 as 1-3-point favorites and failed to cover in a win at Atlanta as 7.5-point favorites.  Now the Rockets will be without Russell Westbrook tonight due to a rest day. 

Memphis is 15-5 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -3 

The Phoenix Suns have gotten healthy and are starting to play like they did to start the season.  The Suns are 5-3 in their last eight games overall.  They have pulled road upsets over the Kings and Blazers during this stretch. 

Now the Suns go on the road and fave a hapless Atlanta Hawks team that is just 2-15 SU in its last 17 games overall.  The Hawks have lost four straight with some bad losses by 10 at Washington and by 22 at Brooklyn in their last two games.  Injuries are really taking their toll on the Hawks With Fernando, Parker and Len out while both Hunter and Young are questionable. 

The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Atlanta and 30-14 ATS in their last 44 meetings overall.  Take the Suns Tuesday. 

15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +14 

Cleveland head coach John Beilein recently held a team meeting to apologize for using the word thug when he meant to say slug in a film session.  It’s obvious his players have his back with the way they have performed their last two games. 

Indeed, the Cavaliers went on the road and beat the Pistons outright as 7.5-point dogs in the first game following the meeting.  And then they went on the road Saturday and upset the Nuggets 111-103 as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 14 points to the Lakers, which is simply too much. 

The Lakers have six players on their injury report right now.  Both Anthony Davis and Danny Green are questionable tonight, while Lebron James and Avery Bradley are probable.  I just can’t see the Lakers being too motivated to face the Cavaliers tonight and that’s going to make it tough to cover this massive 14-point spread.  Especially since it’s a letdown spot off back-to-back road wins at Dallas and Oklahoma City. 

The Lakers are 10-31 ATS in their last 41 home games after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games.  Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Cavaliers Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have to win by double-digits to beat us tonight.  That’s asking too much for a struggling Portland team that is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

This number is adjusted too much for the Hornets playing a back-to-back here.  They covered in a 92-100 loss at Phoenix last night.  And this is a young Hornets team that doesn’t get affected as much as most teams would in these back-to-back situations. 

The Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games with upset wins over both the Mavericks and Cavaliers.  Charlotte is 24-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +1 

The Denver Nuggets are coming off a bad home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers as 12.5-point favorites.  But you could see that letdown coming with the Clippers on deck today. 

Now, the Nuggets will come back highly motivated for a win at home here tonight.  And I’m not concerned about the back-to-back for them.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, plus they had two days off before that Cleveland game. 

The Clippers have struggled to put away some bad teams lately.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost 114-140 at home to the Grizzlies as 10-point favorites, only beat the Knicks by 3 as 10-point home favorites and only beat the Warriors by 9 as 14.5-point home favorites.  And the Clippers are likely to be without Paul George again tonight. 

The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Denver as well.  Take the Nuggets Sunday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -9.5 

It’s safe to say the Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday.  They are riding a season-high three-game losing streak coming in.  They will take out their frustration on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight with a blowout victory. 

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after beating the Knicks on the road last night.  This 6 in 9 days is as tough as it gets in the NBA.  I think they run out of gas tonight, especially since they will be without two starters in Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after failing to cover three of their last four ATS against an opponent that covered four of their last five ATS are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Celtics have won their last two meetings with the Pelicans by 13 at home and by 17 on the road.  Bet the Celtics Saturday. 

20* Lakers/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -2 

The Dallas Mavericks just lost to the Lakers 95-108 on the road on December 29th.  They have now lost two of three meetings to the Lakers, including an overtime loss where the Lakers tied it at the buzzer at the end of regulation.  The Mavericks want revenge and to tie the season series at 2-2 tonight. 

The good news for the Mavericks is that they won’t have to go up against Anthony Davis tonight due to a tailbone injury suffered against the Knicks last time out.  The Lakers are only a shell of themselves without Davis, who leads them in scoring (27.1 PPG), rebounding (9.4 RPG) and blocks (2.6 BPG). 

The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, coming back to win by 11.2 points per game.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Mavericks Friday. 

15* Pelicans/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -4 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Lakers by 10 as 10-point dogs and at home to the Jazz by 2 as 4-point dogs.  They have road wins over the Blazers, Nuggets and Kings during this stretch as well as home wins over the Pacers, Rockets and Bulls. 

The New York Knicks are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a 24-point loss at Utah that followed up a 30-point loss at the Lakers.  This is a tired team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days now after playing in altitude. 

It’s a very difficult spot for the Knicks.  They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I like to fade teams returning home from a long road trip.  Making matters worse is that the Knicks will be without their best player in Julius Randle (18.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and could be without leading scorer Marcus Morris (19.1 PPG) again as well. 

New York is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 15.2 points per game in this spot.  The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Take the Pelicans Friday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +4 

The Houston Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 122-115 win in Atlanta last night.  Six players logged at least 30 minutes for the Rockets last night, so this is a very tough situation for them. 

Chris Paul wants revenge on his former team after the Rockets traded him away in the offseason to make room for Russell Westbrook.  And you know the Thunder will rally around him.  They nearly upset the Rockets in a 112-116 road loss as 10-point dogs in their first meeting.  And now they get the Rockets at home this time around. 

Plus, the Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall which includes upset wins over Dallas, Toronto, San Antonio, the Clippers and the Nets. 

The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Thunder are 47-22-3 ATS in their last 72 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of more than 60%.  Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.  Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Toronto Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  They just went to the wire with the Blazers at home last night in a 99-101 loss.  And now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Hornets tonight. 

It has been a struggle here of late for the Raptors due to all their injuries.  They are missing four key players in Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell.  Siakam and VanVleet are their two best players.  It’s no wonder their have gone just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall.  And being short-handed makes these back-to-back situations even more difficult. 

The Hornets have pulled two impressive road upsets over the Mavericks and Cavaliers in two of their last three games coming in.  They did lose to the Pacers at home after letting that game get away from them in the 4th quarter.  But that will have them coming back determined tonight to beat the Raptors. 

The home team has won four of the last five meetings.  The Hornets are 11-2 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1 

This is yet another case of the Indiana Pacers being underrated as only 1-point home favorites over the Miami Heat tonight.  The Pacers are 15-4 at home this season and should be a bigger favorite tonight. 

The Heat also have a great home-court advantage as they are 17-1 at home, but they are not home here.  Miami is just 9-9 on the road this season.  Their last two road games were very ugly as they lost at Washington by 18 as 14-point favorites and lost by 20 at Orlando. 

Indiana wants revenge from a 112-113 road loss at Miami as 5-point dogs on December 27th in the first and only meeting thus far.  The Pacers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Heat.  The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings overall with Miami. 

The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Indiana is 34-18 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

15* Knicks/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +13.5 

The New York Knicks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 6-6 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost twice by more than 8 points in those 12 games, so they have been extremely competitive. 

The Knicks just took the Clippers to the wire at Staples Center on Sunday in a 132-135 loss as 10-point dogs.  Now they are catching 13.5 points to the Lakers with no travel and I expect them to take LeBron and company to the wire in this game tonight. 

The Lakers are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  In fact, the Lakers haven’t beaten anyone by more than 13 points in their last 12 games overall, making for a 12-0 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 13.5-point spread. 

The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  The Lakers are 1-10 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5 

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation with the Milwaukee Bucks.  After losing 118-127 in Milwaukee on Saturday, the Spurs now only have to wait two days for revenge and are catching 7.5 points at home in the rematch.  I expect them to take the Bucks to the wire and possibly pull off the upset. 

The Spurs have been a great team to back following a loss, which shows the resiliency of this team and the coaching of Popovich.  The Spurs are now 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  San Antonio is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog as well. 

San Antonio is 35-14 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 25-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more over the last two years.  San Antonio is 30-7 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 7.8 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3 

The Utah Jazz are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points at Miami.  They have covered seven straight coming in and I believe they make it seven in a row tonight. 

The Pelicans are also playing well in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they could be without their best player tonight in Jrue Holiday, who is questionable with an elbow injury.  And it’s a bad spot for them playing their 3rd game in 4 days after a back-to-back at the Lakers and Kings on Friday and Saturday. 

The Jazz own the Pelicans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  More impressively, the Jazz are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans winning by 10, 21, 17, 24, 33 and 12 points.  They have won those six games by an average of 19.5 points per game. 

The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Pelicans are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on one days’ rest.  New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Jazz are 15-5-3 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Jazz Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -5.5 

The Miami Heat are coming off a bad 20-point loss at Orlando.  But it was the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Raptors the previous night.  It was a clearly letdown spot and a bad spot given the rest advantage for Orlando. 

Now the Heat return home highly motivated for a win.  And the Heat have had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 16-1 SU & 11-5-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per game.  They should have no problem covering this short 5.5-point spread against the Blazers. 

The Blazers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  They are 15-21 overall and 7-12 on the road and were desperate enough to sign Carmelo Anthony off the streets.  It hasn’t gotten any better with Anthony as the Blazers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their only win coming against a G-League team in Washington.  All five losses came by 6 points or more, including losses to the Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. 

The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Miami is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The heat are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies have some great young talent and it’s starting to show now that they are healthy.  The Grizzlies are 7-6 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They will give the Clippers a run for their money today. 

Helping out the Grizzlies is the fact that the Clippers are not healthy.  They are down two starters today in Paul George and Patrick Beverly.  They will miss George’s scoring as he has picked up right where he left off last season in OKC.  And Beverly is a pest defensively that will be missed guarding Rookie of the Year favorite JA Morant. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss.  Memphis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games off a win.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday. 

20* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have three straight wins over three of the better teams in the NBA in the Pacers, Rockets and Nuggets. 

Now the Pelicans want to avenge their 110-114 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on November 27th in their first and only meeting this season.  There are a lot of former Lakers on this Pelicans team, so they will always be motivated to face their former team, especially this season. 

The Lakers are 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have just one win by more than 10 points during this stretch, and that was a 13-point win.  They will have a hard time covering this big number tonight against a Pelicans team that is playing very well. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New Orleans) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 7-21 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pelicans Friday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -2 

The San Antonio Spurs would actually be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  They are playing well over the last month in going 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall dating back to December 3rd.  It’s a rested team that has had a lot of time off over the past month. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are also playing well in going 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  But now they are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point road dogs.  And it’s definitely a potential letdown spot off three straight narrow wins over the Hornets, Raptors and Mavericks by a combined 8 points. 

The Spurs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Thunder.  San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

15* Raptors/Heat NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Miami -5 

The Miami Heat had won five straight including wins over Philadelphia (twice), Indiana and Utah.  Then they laid an egg on Monday and lost outright as a 14-point favorite against Washington’s G-League team. 

It’s safe to say the Heat are going to come back highly motivated for a win at home tonight over the Toronto Raptors after getting that wake-up call.  And they will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.  The Heat are 15-1 at home this season and winning by nearly 12 points per game. 

The Raptors are in a much tougher spot here.  They will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and are already playing short-handed.  The Raptors remain without their best player in Pacal Siakam, starter Marc Gasol and key reserve Norman Powell.  I don’t think they will be able to hang with Miami tonight without these three. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that was beaten by 24 or more points against the spread in their last three are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 11-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 15.0 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Heat Thursday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2 

The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 14-3 at home this season.  And they come into this game highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Miami and New Orleans.  Plus, they are fresh and ready to go on two days’ rest and will get Malcolm Brogdon back from injury tonight. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have been awful on the road this season.  They are just 7-10 in road games.  They did beat the Pacers at home 119-116 in their lone meeting this season, but now it’s revenge time for Indiana at home this time around. 

Plays against road teams (Philadelphia) - off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-18 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -8.5 

The Miami Heat have won five straight to improve to 24-8 on the season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  Now they should make easy work of the Washington Wizards on the road tonight. 

The Wizards stand little to no chance of even being competitive tonight with all of their injuries.  They are without Rui Hachimura, Mo Wagner, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant and they could be without Bradley Beal, who is questionable. 

The Heat are 12-2 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons.  Miami is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +4 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with three upset wins and a 120-98 blowout of Indiana yesterday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that blowout allowed them to rest their starters late. 

The Houston Rockets will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Nets 108-98 at home last night.  Now they have to travel, while the Pelicans get to stay at home.  That’s a huge advantage. 

The Rockets will sit Russell Westbrook today and they could be without Clint Cappela, who is questionable.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +11.5 

Both the Magic and Bucks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the situation is much better for the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 5th game in 8 days. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after sitting out last night against the Hawks.  Eric Bledsoe remains out for the Bucks.  This line indicates Giannis will play, but it would be a huge bonus if he didn’t. 

The Magic will be motivated for revenge after losing twice already to the Bucks this season.  They only lost 101-110 at Milwaukee on December 9th a few weeks ago as 13-point dogs. And I think they can stay within single-digits in their 3rd meeting as well. 

The Magic are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.  Orlando is 4-0-2 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

We are getting the Miami Heat cheap at home tonight.  The Heat are 14-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Lakers by 3 points.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year. 

The Philadelphia 76ers are just 7-9 on the road this season and actually getting outscored on the road.  While both teams are playing a back-to-back, the situation is worse for the 76ers because they have to travel from Orlando to Miami, while the Heat get to stay at home after beating the Pacers last night. 

The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  Take the Heat Saturday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +3 

This is a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers.  They are coming off a huge upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day.  That makes this a prime letdown spot for the 76ers now.  Plus, they’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days. 

Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic come in on three days’ rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Not to mention, they are highly motivated for a win after dropping five of their last seven.  And the Magic are finally near full strength now in the health department, which will make them dangerous moving forward. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Magic have won three straight home meetings with the 76ers outright and I think they get the job done outright again given the favorable spot for them tonight. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - a good shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5%-43.5%), after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Philadelphia is 6-19 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Cavs/Celtics NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +13.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won three straight games coming in and are now ready to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go coming in on three days’ rest. 

The same cannot be said for the Celtics.  Boston is coming off a huge win over Toronto on Christmas Day on the road.  That makes this a letdown spot for them, especially since they’ve already beaten the Cavs twice this season.  I like the value with the Cavs given the spot and playing with double-revenge catching a whopping 13.5 points. 

Plays against any team (Boston) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Cleveland) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games off three straight games where they made 50% of their shots or more.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* Spurs/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -5.5 

Luka Doncic returned to practice on Tuesday and is likely to make his return from an ankle injury tonight.  Playing without Doncic, the Mavs came together as a team and showed they are more than just a one trick pony.  It will help them moving forward. 

In the game they lost Doncic in the opening minutes against Miami, the Mavs took the Heat to overtime and only lost 118-122.  They came back and upset Milwaukee on the road as 10-point dogs in their next game.  They only lost to Boston by 6 at home, pulled the 117-98 upset win as 8.5-point dogs at Philadelphia, and blew a 30-point lead at Toronto in a 107-110 loss as 3.5-point dogs. 

That loss to Toronto wouldn’t have sat well with them over Christmas.  Look for them to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  And they’ll be fresh and ready to go on three days’ rest.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. 

The Spurs are coming off a win over the Grizzlies, they have exactly two winning streaks of two games or more all season.  The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a win dating back to last year.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5 

The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do not like each other based on their close proximity.  The Knicks want revenge from two losses to the Nets by 4 and 2 points in their first two meetings this season.  I expect this game to go down to the wire as well, so getting 7.5 points is a great value. 

The Knicks have played their best basketball of the season over the last couple weeks.  They are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset both the Kings as 8.5-point dogs and Warriors as 4.5-point dogs on the road, while also crushing the Hawks by 23 as 2.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by 6 at Denver as well.  Their only blowout losses during this stretch came to Milwaukee and Miami, two of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Knicks have certainly held their own against the Nets.  New York is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Brooklyn.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday. 

20* Pelicans/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10 

After losing 13 straight games, the New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to show some life and play up to their potential.  They have won two of their last three with upset wins at Minnesota as 3-point dogs and at Portland as 6-point dogs. 

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans now after losing 14 of their last 16.  They are catching double-digits here against the Denver Nuggets when they shouldn’t be.  They’ll give the Nuggets a run for their money on Christmas Night, especially now that they are fully healthy outside Zion Williamson. 

It’s also a good time to ‘sell high’ on the Nuggets, who have won seven straight coming in. But only two of those wins came by double-digits.  And this is a tired Nuggets team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 12th game in 21 days.  The Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days Wednesday. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They haven’t lost any of their last seven meetings with the Nuggets by double-digits, making for a 7-0 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread.  The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday. 

20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors are in a world of hurt right now injury-wise.  They are playing without their best player in Pascal Siakam along with fellow starter Marc Gasol and Norman Powell.  They don’t stand a chance of beating the Celtics without these three Wednesday. 

The Raptors just pulled a 30-point comeback win over Dallas at home on Sunday before going into overtime in a loss to Indiana on Monday.  It’s safe to say this is a tired, short-handed team now playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Celtics tonight. 

Meanwhile, Boston comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  They are also playing just their 4th game in 13 days.  They are coming off two straight blowout home wins over Detroit by 21 and Charlotte by 26.  This team is playing well right now and the Raptors won’t be able to slow them down given the spot. 

Plays against underdogs (Toronto) - off a cover where they lost straight up as a dog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-20 (76.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on any team (Boston) - off two straight wins by 10 or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in four straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6 

The Sacramento Kings have lost three straight road games coming in.  They return home here highly motivated for a victory to get a win before Christmas.  Look for them to likely pull the upset at home over the Houston Rockets. 

While we’re ‘buying low’ on the Kings off three straight losses, we’re ‘selling high’ on the Rockets off three straight wins.  They went on the road and upset the Clippers before beating a banged-up Suns team on the road as 9-point favorites.  Now they will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, which makes this a tough spot for them. 

Sacramento is 17-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 14-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three years.  Sacramento is 10-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.   

The Kings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Sacramento is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Kings pulled the 119-118 upset at Houston as 12-point road dogs in their first meeting this season, and they are upset-minded again tonight.  Take the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4 

The Miami Heat are showing great value as only 4-point home favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Heat are 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game on average. 

The Jazz are just 7-8 SU & 5-9-1 ATS on the road this season.  Utah is without starting PG Mike Conley as he just can’t seem to get healthy.  And I think the Jazz are overvalued due to their five-game winning streak against some bad teams in Minnesota, Golden State, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte.  All five of those games went down to the wire, too. 

Miami comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Friday.  And the Heat have the next three days off as well.  They are looking to put forth a big effort here knowing they get that time off, plus they are fresh. 

The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10 

The New York Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset both Golden State and Sacramento on the road, and covered in a 6-point loss at 10-point dogs at Denver.  They also crushed Atlanta 143-120 at home last time out. 

The Miami Heat return home from a three-game road trip here.  The Heat are in a letdown spot off their upset win at Philadelphia as 9-point dogs last time out.  They won’t take the Knicks nearly as seriously as they took the 76ers in that huge showdown Wednesday night. 

The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five Friday games.  The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9 

The Boston Celtics should make easy work of the Detroit Pistons tonight.  The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin (16.3 PPG), Luke Kennard (15.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (9.1 PPG).  They have zero chance of making this game competitive with the Celtics without these three guys. 

The Celtics have lost two of their last three coming in, so they won’t be taking the Pistons lightly.  But Boston is also rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 8 days.  The Celtics are 10-1 at home this season, while the Pistons are 4-9 on the road. 

The Celtics are 22-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons, including 15-2 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Detroit is 3-14 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points per game over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

It’s the grudge match tonight between the Clippers and Rockets.  They have split the first two meetings this season with the home team winning reach.  But the Clippers are just now at full strength finally, and I think they will make easy work of the Rockets at home tonight. 

The Clippers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall with their only losses coming on the road.  The Clippers are 14-1 SU & 10-4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  This is a short number for them to be laying at home tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have struggled to put away some bad teams.  They lost outright to the Pistons as 7.5-point home favorites and outright to the Kings as 12-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites over the Suns and 10-point home favorites over the Spurs.  They also let the Cavs take them to the wire as 11.5-point favorites.

The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3 

The Spurs have turned the corner finally and are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 4-3 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the likes of the Clippers and Rockets.  And they only lost by 2 to the Rockets as 10-point road dogs last time out. 

Now the Spurs come in on two days’ rest and will be hosting the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as this will be a tough spot for them.  Not to mention, they needed overtime to put away the Pelicans on Tuesday. 

The Spurs are 21-3 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets.  San Antonio is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 meetings with Brooklyn, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings. 

San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Roll with the Spurs Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -2.5 

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Celtics are coming off two straight tough losses to the Pacers and 76ers in a back-to-back situation.  Now they’ve had a whopping five days off to rest and recover after last playing on December 12th.  It’s safe to say we will get a big effort from the Celtics tonight. 

The Mavericks are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a shocking 120-116 upset win at Milwaukee as 10-point underdogs on Monday.  It’s like the Bucks didn’t take them seriously without Luka Doncic and the Mavericks took advantage.  But they’re going to feel the loss of Doncic sooner rather than later, including tonight. 

You simply don’t replace a player of Doncic’s caliber.  He has been neck-and-neck with Giannis as the favorite to win the MVP up to this point.  Doncic averages 29.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game.  He means everything to the Mavericks. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dallas) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6 or more points per game, after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Dallas.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5 

The Lakers will be playing their seventh road game in their last eight contests.  They are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They failed to cover in a 3-point win at Miami on Friday and also failed to cover in a 5-point win at Atlanta on Sunday.  I think their winning streak comes to an end Tuesday. 

The Indiana Pacers are playing almost as well as the Lakers right now.  They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall and should not be catching points at home to Los Angeles tonight.  They have gone 6-1 SU at home during this stretch with their only loss to the Clippers. 

The Lakers are dealing with some injuries right now as Kyle Kuzma is expected to sit out, while Anthony Davis is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Hawks.  And this is the ultimate lookahead spot as the Lakers have the Bucks on deck Thursday on TNT.  I expect them to be overlooking the Pacers and looking ahead to that game against Milwaukee. 

The Lakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.  The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +10 

The Houston Rockets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as 10-point home favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  This team is not playing well enough right now to warrant laying this big of a number.  The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes upset losses to both the Kings and Pistons. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Spurs, who have been one of the worst covering teams in the NBA this season at 6-18-1 ATS in their 25 games.  The Spurs have won four of their last six coming in over the Clippers, Rockets, Kings and Suns.  They have stepped up in class and shown they can hang. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 

The Toronto Raptors have been struggling here of late without Fred VanVleet, and he’s doubtful again tonight.  They Raptors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two wins came by a single point over the Bills as 6-point road favorites and by 8 over the Nets as 6.5-point home favorites. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown they can step up in class here of late and compete.  They only lost by 6 as 11.5-point home dogs to the Rockets, went on the road and upset the Spurs by 8 as 12-point dogs, and barely failed to cover at Milwaukee.  Now they are catching 12.5-points here to the Raptors, which is too much. 

Toronto is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  The Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Toronto.  Take the Cavaliers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +12 

There’s no doubt you’re paying a premium now to back the 23-3 Los Angeles Lakers.  They have covered five of their last six and are now laying double-digits on the road to the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a game the Hawks will give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s a bad spot for the Lakers.  They are coming off a win in Miami, and there’s a lot of distractions that come along with playing in Miami.  Teams often times come out flat in their next game.  And the Lakers will be playing their 3rd straight road game here and are in the midst of a stretch of eight of their last nine on the road. 

The Hawks have failed to cover three in a row, and it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them.  They’ll show up for the Lakers today.  Kyle Kuzma is out and Lebron James is questionable for the Lakers.  The Hawks are fully healthy outside the suspension to John Collins. 

The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Hawks are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games off a double-digit home loss.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Hawks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5 

The Denver Nuggets are currently undervalued because they went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS over a six-game stretch where five of six games were on the road.  I cashed them in when they returned home as 8-point favorites in a 15-point win over the Blazers.   

I think the Nuggets remain undervalued here as only 6.5-point home favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Pepsi Center has been a house of horrors for opponents as Denver had the best home-court advantage in the NBA last year.  The Nuggets are 9-3 at home this season as well. 

Few teams have owned the Thunder like the Nuggets have.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Thunder.  They won all four meetings last year with OKC all by 7 points or more.  And that was when the Thunder were actually good with Paul George and Russell Westbrook.  Take the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7 

This is a very tough spot for the Houston Rockets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have to travel from Orlando back to Houston overnight and won’t have a whole lot left in the. Tank for the Detroit Pistons. 

The Pistons had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.  Making matters worse for the Rockets is that they were already without Eric Gordon, but now they will be without Russell Westbrook tonight, plus Tyson Chandler is questionable.  The Pistons are fully healthy outside of Reggie Jackson. 

Plays against any team (Houston) - a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Houstons Rockets barely survived the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers on the road Wednesday in a 116-110 win as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Rockets are laying 6.5 points on the road to the Orlando Magic and they shouldn’t be.  I’ll take the value with the Magic at home tonight. 

The Rockets have failed to cover three straight and four of their last five.  They have some key injuries right now as they are playing without two of their best guards in Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers.  They can’t be trusted to lay points on the road here against an Orlando Magic team that is playing well right now. 

Indeed, the Magic have won four of their last six with their only losses coming to the Bucks and Lakers, which are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.  They were competitive in both games as each loss came by single-digits.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Orlando is 23-9 ATS after covering four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  The Magic are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -6 

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in and it’s understandable considering they played five of their last six on the road.  Now they are back in the Pepsi Center where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

We know we’re going to get a big effort from the Nuggets here, which is a big factor when handicapping the NBA.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season and are 8-3 at home this year.  They should be able to handle the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. 

The Blazers have been hit hard by injuries this season as they remain without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins and Rodney Hood.  Injuries prompted them to sign Carmelo Anthony.  The Blazers are just 10-15 this season, including 5-9 on the road.  They are nowhere near as good as they were last season when they made a deep run in the playoffs. 

Plays against underdogs (Portland) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a team with a winning record are 71-35 (67%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Denver is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to get way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 6 points to a solid Detroit Pistons team that is as healthy as they have been all season now. 

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to arguably the best team in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks.  They beat San Antonio by 34 at home and Cleveland by 33 on the road.  They also upset Indiana by 7 at home and won at New Orleans.  I really like the way this team is playing right now. 

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and have consistently had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons.  The Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days’ rest.  That break actually wasn’t good for them as it halted the momentum they had. 

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  They are winning by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight as 9.5-point favorites.  It’s their highest favorite role all season, and only the 2nd time in 24 games that they’ve been favored by more than 4.5 points. 

This number had been adjusted for the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But this is a young team that won’t be affected as much by this situation.  And I think what will energize the Hornets tonight is playing with double-revenge, two losses to Brooklyn since November 20th.  It will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks, and I look for the Hornets to put their best foot forward tonight. 

Charlotte is 8-1 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* Nuggets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4 

The Philadelphia 76ers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by 13.2 points pre game.  Getting them as only 4-point home favorites over the struggling Denver Nuggets is a gift from oddsmakers tonight.  We’ll take advantage. 

The Nuggets are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the Knicks. They have lost three road games to the Kings, Celtics and Nets during this stretch, so I don’t see how they are going to hang with the 76ers tonight. 

Philadelphia wants revenge from a 97-100 road loss at Denver in their first meeting this season.  The 76ers blew a 15-point halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Philadelphia is 28-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons. 

The home team has won four straight in this series.  The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.  Denver is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday. 

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3 

The Golden State Warriors now have both D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green back healthy.  They are playing some more competitive basketball as a result and should be able to handle the lowly Memphis Grizzlies at home tonight. 

This is a good spot for the Warriors, who come in on two days’ rest and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Warriors beat the Grizzlies 114-95 on the road on November 19th.  It should be more of the same at home this time around. 

The Grizzlies are dealing with some injuries right now to Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clark.  It’s a Grizzlies team playing some really poor basketball right now.  They have gone 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Grizzlies are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies and 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings against Memphis.  Take the Warriors Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -5.5 

The Toronto Raptors have lost three straight for the first time all season.  The three losses came to the Heat, Rockets and 76ers, who are three of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they’ll be highly motivated and should get back on track with a win and cover against the lowly Chicago Bulls tonight. 

The Bulls are in a tough spot as they are coming off an overtime loss to the Heat in Miami last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Raptors will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off prior to playing the 76ers last night and will have more left in the tank than the Bulls. 

The Raptors simply own the Bulls with 10 straight wins over Chicago in this series.  The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Chicago winning by 24, 23, 39, 24 and 9 points.  They have won those five games by an average of 23.8 points per game. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Raptors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Chicago is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog.  The Bulls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering three of their last four ATS.  Roll with the Raptors Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7 

The Miami Heat have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-6 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in all games this year.  They have been unstoppable at home, going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS while winning by 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Chicago Bulls have been overrated all season.  They are 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in their 23 games this year.  The Bulls are coming off an ugly upset home loss to the Warriors and should be double-digit road dogs here to the Miami Heat. 

Chicago is 15-30 ATS in road games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Bulls spent last night in South Beach, so you can only imagine what they got into.  The Heat improve to 10-0 at home this season with another blowout win over the Bulls.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -2.5 

The Charlotte Hornets need to be favored by more than 2.5 points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  We’ll take advantage and side with the Hornets, who have been undervalued basically all season and consistently lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. 

The Hawks are 1-11 SU In their last 12 games overall with their only win coming at home against the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are missing some key players right now as John Collins remains suspended and De’Andre Hunter is out.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are fully healthy. 

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games this season.  Atlanta is 2-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Take the Hornets Sunday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 

I really like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  They will be playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings with the Mavericks this season.  They’ll be motivated for a win, while the Mavericks will take them lightly and that will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us. 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans, who have lost seven straight coming in while going 1-5-1 ATS in the process.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Mavericks, who are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line is inflated due to these recent results from both teams. 

Plays against any team (Dallas) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home loss.  The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 92-96 road loss at Denver on November 22nd exactly two weeks ago.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home this time around.  And it’s a Nuggets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a road win over the Knicks last night. 

The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and are coming off a 112-93 home win over the Heat.  The Celtics improved to 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game.  This is a short number to be laying with the Celtics at home tonight given the rest advantage and revenge. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - off a road win when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 62-30 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Denver is 6-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win after dropping four straight coming in.  One of those losses was a 104-116 home loss to the Magic on November 27th, so they will be out for revenge just over a week later here in the rematch. 

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing 3rd game in 4 days and are overvalued off two straight wins over Washington and Phoenix. 

Plays against road favorites (Orlando) - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) off four or more consecutive losses, in December games are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 54-29 ATS in their last 73 games when playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Charlotte Hornets have certainly been more competitive than most prognosticators anticipated coming into the season.  They are 9-14 SU & 12-11 ATS in their 23 games this season.  They have won three of their last five coming in with their only losses coming on the road to Milwaukee and at home to Phoenix by 5 after the Suns closed on a 10-0 run. 

The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites.  They are getting that respect due to going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  But their six wins have come against the Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Cavs, Celtics and Hawks. 

The Nets beat the Hornets 101-91 at home on November 20th.  Now the Hornets want revenge at home this time around just over two weeks later.  The Hornets are 6-2 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Nets with one of those losses coming by 2 points. 

Brooklyn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.  Roll with the Hornets Friday. 

15* Rockets/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1 

The Toronto Raptors are coming off their first home loss of the season.  The Miami Heat beat them in overtime.  The Raptors are now 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are in a tough spot off a double-overtime loss at San Antonio Tuesday.  Now they have to travel to Toronto and face a motivated Raptors team here tonight.  It’s a Raptors team that has been underrated all season at 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Houston is 3-12 ATS off a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.  Toronto is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Rockets.  Take the Raptors Thursday.