Sports Picks & Predictions

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +18.5

The Atlanta Hawks are on a ridiculous run right now where they have gone 15-0 straight up and 14-0-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  After covering 14 straight coming in, the Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 18.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves tonight, and they haven't been more than 11-point favorites in any game this season up to this point.

At 7-35, the Minnesota Timberwolves could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now as well.  They have lost three straight while going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall to boot.  This is simply the perfect storm tonight folks as this number is too high.

Also, if Atlanta were to ever have a letdown, it would be tonight against the Timberwolves.  That's because they are coming off a huge win over one of the best teams in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday.  They won't be playing with the kind of focus and effort they played with against the Thunder against the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Atlanta very tough in recent meetings, going 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight matchups.  In fact, the Timberwolves have not lost by more than 10 points to the Hawks in any of the last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing them pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Minnesota is 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9.5

Despite recently getting back star Carmelo Anthony from injury, the New York Knicks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 9.5-point underdogs to the Charlotte Hornets.  They are showing excellent value here as the chances of them losing by double-digits are slim to nine.

The Knicks have not quit, which has been evident in their last three games.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three.  They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home underdogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs.  They are playing with a lot of confidence right now.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly overvalued.  They had a stretch where they won eight of their last nine games prior to an ugly 90-129 loss at Cleveland last night.  That loss will really have these Hornets' players questioning how good they actually are, and I look for them to come back deflated from it.  They won't have the kind of focus and effort needed to win this game by double-digits.

"I think it's just effort, energy, attention to details," Anthony said. "I think the guys that have been helping us and contributing to these last couple of games, (those) guys are hungry. They're showing it, they're playing like it. They're having a lot of fun. We're having a lot of fun out there now. I think that comes with putting forth the effort and the energy and being able to see results from there."

'The guys' are several players that the Knicks have been giving playing time recently, and they are contributing in a big way.  Leading the way has been Langston Galloway, an undrafted rookie out of Saint Joseph's, who is averaging 15.7 points on 51.4 percent shooting during the three-game winning streak.  Like Galloway, Lance Thomas and Louis Amundson are on 10-day contracts.  Thomas scored 16 points off the bench against the Magic, while Amundson had six rebounds and two blocks as a starter.

"We've mixed in some personalities and some guys into this group, who have a core toughness about them that I think is effecting everybody," coach Derek Fisher said.

New York is 13-2 ATS versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 29-9 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more.  Yes, the Knicks were blown out by the Hornets the last time they played, but they were without Anthony.  Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday.

15* Bulls/Mavericks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Chicago +7

The Chicago Bulls are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.  They recently lost six games in an eight-game stretch, and Derrick Rose spoke out about how frustrating it was that the team wasn't competing. 

After that stretch, I backed them last night in a dominant 104-81 home win over the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs as 6-point underdogs.  I look for them to carry that chip on their shoulder into Dallas tonight despite having to play the second of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks are just 4-3 SU & 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their four wins have come against the Timberwolvers, Nuggets, Kings and Grizzlies during this stretch.  They have also lost at home to Detroit (by 13), at the Clippers (by 20) and at the Nuggets (by 7).

Chicago has played its best basketball on the road this season, going 15-6 straight up in 21 road games.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late, either.  The road team has actually won three straight meetings between the Bulls and Mavericks.  The Bulls will be out for revenge from their 129-132 (double-OT) home loss to the Mavericks in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on December 2nd.

Chicago is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Dallas.  Plays against favorites (DALLAS) - after three or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (at least 102 PPG) after 42+ games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 33-13 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

This is a matchup of the NBA's most dangerous team (Oklahoma City) up against the NBA's hottest team (Atlanta) tonight.  I'm going to side with the dangerous team in the Thunder as 4.5-point road underdogs in this one.

The reason the Thunder are dangerous is because they are finally healthy and chasing down a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are currently in 9th place in the West, which makes them dangerous because they aren't going to take nights off the rest of the way.  They'll certainly be amped up for this game tonight.

The Hawks have won 14 straight games while going an unfathomable 13-0-1 ATS in those 14 games.  They have been the most underrated team in the league through the first half of the season.  However, those odds are finally starting to catch up to them, and they should not be favored against arguably the best team in the West when healthy in the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has shown what it is capable of when healthy here of late.  It has gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 127-115 home win over Golden State, which owns the best record in the league.  Following that win was three straight road victories at Orlando (127-99), Miami (94-86) and Washington (105-103, OT).

The Thunder have had the Hawks' number, winning three straight in this series, and seven of the last nine meetings overall.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta as well.  Look for them to go into Atlanta and put an end to the Hawks' winning streak tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Atlanta is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games off a home win.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.  It has simply been crushing the East, and Atlanta wouldn't fare nearly as well if it was in the West.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* Spurs/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +6

The Chicago Bulls are clearly struggling right now without Joakim Noah, but they were struggling before he got injured, too.  While I do believe they miss Noah quite a bit, the fact of the matter is that the Bulls are simply showing too good of value to pass up tonight.

This line opened at Spurs -3.5 and the betting public has jumped all over San Antonio, driving this line up to 6.  They love the fact that the Spurs have won and covered four straight games coming into this one, and hate that the Bulls have lost four of five while going 1-4 ATS in the process.  This is an overreaction at its finest.

The Spurs' four-game winning streak has come against some weak competition.  They beat the Hornets and the Nuggets on the road, while topping the Blazers and Jazz at home during this stretch.  The Bulls have played much stiffer competition as three of their last four losses have come to Eastern Conference contenders Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland.

Derrick Rose spoke out after the team's loss to Cleveland on Monday, which also means that they have two days' rest coming into this game Thursday.  "It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." 

I look for an inspired effort from Rose and the Bulls tonight.  The Spurs haven't exactly been road warriors like they have been in year's past.  They are just 12-10 away from home this season, and very beatable outside of San Antonio.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* Thunder/Heat Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling now that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are back healthy.  At 20-20 and in 9th place in the Western Conference, 3.5 games back of Phoenix for 8th place, look for the Thunder to keep their foot on the gas tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Thunder have won each of their last two games via blowout.  They beat Golden State 127-115 at home, and the Warriors currently have the best record in the league.  They followed that up with a 127-99 win at Orlando against a Magic team that has been playing well of late.  Now, their travel is minimal two days later as they make the short trip to Miami.

The Heat have ample rest coming into this one following their five-game road trip out West, but that first game back home following a long road trip is almost always tough for NBA teams.  Also, the fact of the matter is that the Heat just do not have the talent this year to match up with the Thunder, and they were blown out by Golden State (by 15) and Portland (by 16) on their road trip, which are two teams nearly equal to the Thunder talent-wise.

The Thunder have been feasting against the weak Eastern Conference, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against them.  That includes the win over Orlando (by 28), but also Charlotte (by 23), Cleveland (by 9), Washington (by 7) and Milwaukee (by 13).  The Thunder are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  The Heat are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS win.  The Heat are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Miami is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, coming back to lose by an average of 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Heat are 1-11 ATS in home games after playing four consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Cavaliers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3

I have successfully backed the Cleveland Cavaliers in each of their last two games.  They have come through with two of their better performances of the season by sweeping the Lakers (107-100) and the Clippers (126-121) at the Staples Center to conclude their five-game road trip out West.

After missing eight games due to injury where the Cavaliers went 1-7, Lebron James has returned for each of the last three games, and it's no surprise that they have turned it around.  They are 20-12 in games that James plays this season, compared to 1-8 without him.

Now, the Cavaliers return home tonight and are showing excellent value as only 3-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  They have had two days off in between games so they'll be well-rested and ready to go.  These Cleveland fans will be giving them a warm welcome with the excitement of James being back in the lineup for his first home game since December 28th.

Chicago comes into this game playing its worst basketball of the season.  It is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has ugly home losses to Utah (77-97), Orlando (114-121), Washington (99-105) and Atlanta (99-107), as well as a blowout road loss to Washington (86-102) during this stretch.  Its only two wins have come against Milwaukee and Boston.

While Derrick Rose and his injury status gets most of the attention for the Bulls, I would argue that Joakim Noah is Chicago's most important player.  He does all the dirty work and makes all of the hussle plays for the Bulls.  Without him, they are a much worse defensive team, and that has really shown here of late.

Noah (ankle) left the Washington game at halftime three games ago, and the Bulls would up allowing 61 points in the second half.  They also allowed 103 points to Boston and 107 to Atlanta in their two games without Noah since.  They are giving up an average of 108.3 points per game in their last four.  Noah remains out with that same ankle injury.

The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +13.5

The Denver Nuggets have really turned their season around here of late by winning five of their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Memphis (114-85) and Dallas (114-107) at home, while blowing out Minnesota (110-101) and Sacramento (118-108) on the road during this stretch.

However, the Nuggets will be coming into this game highly motivated for a victory following back-to-back losses to the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  That ugly loss to Minnesota last time out has them undervalued coming into this game, but it was a clear letdown spot for them after playing Dallas and with Golden State on deck.  They were looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.

Due to having the best record in the NBA, the Warriors are getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers at this point in the season. It's to the point where they are overvalued tonight after covering the spread in seven of their last nine games overall with one push. This is also a tired team right now as the Warriors will be playing their 5th game in 7 days.

The two things that really stood out to me about this game is how tough the Nuggets have played the Warriors recently, and how much success the road team has had.  Indeed, the road team has won four straight meetings.  Also, each of the last six meetings have been decided by 8 or fewer points.

Plays against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver is 36-19 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +12

The Denver Nuggets (18-21) have no business being double-digits favorites against almost any team in the league, including the Minnesota Timberwolves (6-32).  I'll gladly take the value here and back the 12-point road underdog Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has been playing much more competitive basketball here of late.  It has gone 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight.  It has not lost any of its last 11 games by more than 15 points, and eight of those have been decided by 12 or fewer.

Denver comes into this game overvalued due to having won five of its last six games overall.  Off an 89-97 loss to Dallas last night, and with a game at Golden State on deck, I look at this as a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets as well.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but the Timberwolves are clearly the fresher team.  They had two days off prior to their 99-110 loss to the Suns as 14-point dogs last night.  Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in the past 7 days.  Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days in comparison.

This has been a very closely-contested series between the Nuggets and Timberwolves in recent years.  In fact, five of the last six meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by exactly 4 points.  The road team is 22-6-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 trips to Denver.

Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Nuggets are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Denver is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 24-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 1-8 without Lebron James while averaging 91.0 points per game, but with James they are 19-12 and averaging 102.6 points per game.  James just recently returned to the lineup for their last two games.

He hasn't missed a beat by totaling 69 pionts, 12 rebounds and 10 assists while shooting 7-for-18 from 3-point range since returning.  He has averaged 29.2 points, 8.5 boards and 7.8 assists in his last six road games against the Clippers.

I know this is the second of a back-to-back for the Cavaliers, which is usually a tough spot, but the re-energized James will help them get over that.  Plus, they don't have to travel at all as they played the Lakers in the Staples Center last night, and now they play the Clippers in the Staples Center.  No travel minimizes the effect of a back-to-back situation.

The Cavs are simply undervalued due to going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, while the Clippers are overvalued due to going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, including a win at Portland last time out.  There is certainly some line value here as the oddsmakers have tacked on a few too many points to the Clippers' side.  Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Los Angeles.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4

Getting the San Antonio Spurs as only 4-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers is an absolute gift from oddsmakers tonight.  I'll take advantage and back them at a great price as you'll rarely find the Spurs as this small of home favorites.

The Spurs are starting to gain some traction as they have won five of their last seven games overall.  Now, they get a healthy Kawhi Leonard returning to the lineup after missing the past 15 games with a torn ligament in his hand.  He is arguably the Spurs' best player, and it's no wonder they have kind of struggled this year without him.

San Antonio is in a massive revenge spot here.  The Spurs have lost each of their first two meetings of the season with the Blazers, including a 119-129 (3 OT) home loss back on December 19th in their last meeting.  Neither Tony Parker nor Leonard played in that game and they still took the Blazers to three overtimes.  Leonard and Parker are now both healthy this time around.  Also, both Parker and Tim Duncan missed the Spurs' 95-108 road loss to the Blazers in their first meeting.

The Spurs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games playing on one days rest.  San Antonio is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Spurs Friday.

20* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2.5

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Oklahoma City Thunder as home underdogs.  I'll gladly take advantage tonight as the Thunder take on the Golden State Warriors, who are simply overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA right now.

Yes, this is a second of a back-to-back situation for the Thunder after an ugly loss to the Houston Rockets last night.  However, the Thunder came into that game on five days' rest and were probably a little rusty.  After having five days off prior to that game, fatigue will not be a factor tonight.

That's especially the case considering this is a huge revenge situation for the Thunder.  They have lost each of their first three meetings of the season with the Warriors, so they will be looking to avoid the four-game sweep. 

Keep in mind that they did not have Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook for the first meeting in an 86-91 home loss.  Durant scored 30 points in the first half of the second meeting before going out with an ankle injury in a 114-109 home victory for the Clippers.  The Thunder are finally back to full strength now with Durant and Westbrook.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 63-34 ATS in its last 97 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Golden State is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in its last six visits to OKC.  Take the Thunder Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +1

Due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 31-8, and entering this game on a 10-game winning streak, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued tonight as road favorites against the Toronto Raptors.  They have also covered nine straight, which has the betting public all over them, and now it's time to fade.

The Toronto Raptors have the third-best record in the East with a 26-12 mark.  They just had second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) return last time out in a 100-84 home win over the 76ers.  DeRozan has missed 21 games this year, and they've still managed to keep it together, but they've clearly been better with him than without him.

The Raptors come into this game undervalued due to having lost five of their last seven games overall while going 1-6 ATS in the process.  The loss of DeRozan was finally catching up to them during this stretch, but now that he's back, look for the Raptors to get back to playing the same dominant basketball they were before it.

Toronto has clearly had Atlanta's number.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Hawks.  They won 96-86 as 7.5-point home favorite in their final meeting of 2013-14.  They won 109-102 as 4.5-point home favorites in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 126-115 as 3.5-point road favorites in their most recent meeting with the Hawks this season.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  Look for Toronto to come out with an inspired effort tonight to try and turn around its fortunes now that DeRozan is back and healthy.  Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic enter this game playing their best basketball of the season.  I have successfully backed them in back-to-back upsets, and I'm going to back them again tonight showing excellent value as 6.5-point home dogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Magic put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 121-114 road win at Chicago as 11.5-point underdogs, then followed that up with a 120-113 home win as 9-point dogs to the Houston Rockets.

The key to the Magic's success is that they have used their young guards in Victor Oladipo and Elfred Payton to push the tempo as this youthful team is clearly at their best when they get out in the open floor.  They have scored 120.5 points per game in their last two wins.

"I think it took time but we've figured out how to play," guard Victor Oladipo said. "Now that we've figured it out, we can't change it."  Oladipo scored a season-high 33 versus Chicago and 32 against the Rockets.  Nikola Vucevic, one of the most underrated centers in the league, has been hot with averages of 30.7 points, 13.0 rebounds and 64.0 percent shooting over the past three games.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a much better home team than they are a road team.  They are 12-7 on the road this season scoring 97.8 points and allowing 97.6 points per game.  Now, Mike Conley is battling injuries to both of his ankles, and had to leave the team's win over the Celtics last time out with an ankle injury. 

After seeing him in a walking boot after the game, there's a good chance he doesn't play tonight even thought he's listed as questionable.  Conley is the Grizzlies' floor general and their most important player.  If he doesn't play, it's going to be an added bonus, but even if he does he'll be far from 100% as both ankles are bothering him right now.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last six Friday games.  Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Orlando is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  It has proven time and time again that it can play with the league's best teams.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Indiana Pacers +1.5

Yes, the Detroit Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league here of late, and I've backed them quite a bit.  However, once that news becomes public, then teams like the Pistons tend to be way overvalued, which I believe to be the case tonight and in the near future.

The Pistons have won nine of their last 11 games overall.  They had won seven straight and covered seven in a row before the odds started to catch up to them.  They are now just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall as they have been overvalued.  They lost 94-105 at home to the Pelicans last time out as 4-point favorites.  Just like they shouldn't have been favored over the Pelicans, they should not be favored against the Pacers tonight.

Indiana has managed to hold it together this season despite all of the injuries it was dealt with a 15-25 record up to this point.  Now, most of their team is healthy, and the Pacers are going to be a tough out going forward.  They come into this game undervalued off back-to-back upset losses to Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Pacers will be hungry for a win after this recent stretch, where they've gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They also come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Timberwolves, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Detroit, on the other hand, will be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Pistons are 3-11 ATS off a home loss this season.  Detroit is 4-15 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Indiana is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 visits to Indiana.  Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (18-19) are on a mission to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.  They know that they have to give 100% effort from here on out to get there, which is going to make them an enticing bet the rest of the way.  You certainly won't be questioning their effort tonight.

It's rare that you see an NBA team get five days off in between games.  Well, that's the case for the Thunder tonight, who last played on January 9th in a 99-94 win over the Jazz.  That means they have had five full days to prepare for the Houston Rockets and to rest up.  I suspect you will see their best effort of the season tonight as a result.

Meanwhile, the situation could not be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  This is a tired team right now as the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days.  The Rockets simply won't be able to match the intensity that the Thunder play with tonight because they will be too tired to do so.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  They have also won 4 of the last 6.  They did lose 65-69 to the Rockets at home in their first and only meeting of 2014-15, but they were playing without Westbrook and Durant.  They are now healthy and back to being one of the best teams in the West.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic come into this game way undervalued.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall to drop to 14-27 on the season.  Well, they are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 121-114 win at Chicago, and they will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight because of it.

Houston comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Well, those four wins came against Cleveland (without Lebron), New York, Utah and Brooklyn (without Deron Williams).  With a game against Oklahoma City on deck tomorrow, the Rockets could easily be overlooking the Magic tonight.

Victor Oladipo had a season-high 33 points and Nikola Vucevic added 33 with 11 rebounds against the Bulls as Orlando recorded its highest scoring total of the season. "When we're aggressive on defense and we're pushing the pace on offense, that gives us more opportunities to score more points," reserve Willie Green told the team's official website. "Vooch and Vic carried us offensively and everybody else just played their role. For us, it's just about us needing to score more points."

The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This team has shown that it can play with some of the best teams in the league this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +11

The Orlando Magic are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  I'll take advantage and grab as many points as I can get in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

At 13-27 on the season, the Magic get no respect from the betting public.  Well, they have been much better than their record would indicate, as evidenced by their profitable 22-18 ATS mark on the season.  They simply have lost the majority of their close games, which has made their record worse than it should be right now.

The Magic come in undervalued due to their current six-game losing streak.  Seven of their last nine losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to this skid and to get back in the win column.

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this year.  They have gone just 17-21 ATS on the season.  They have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or less.  They have also been blown out by Brooklyn (82-96) at home, Utah (77-97) at home and Washington (86-102) on the road during their 2-7 ATS stretch.

Chicago is also dealing with some injury issues right now.  Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight with a hip contusion and a sore left knee.  He missed their last game in a 95-87 home win over Milwaukee on Saturday where Pau Gasol scored a career high 46 points.  He's not going to do that again.  Mike Dunleavy is also doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury.

The Magic have done their best work on the road where they are 16-8 ATS this season.  They have also played the Bulls very tough in Chicago in recent meetings.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the United Center.  They have only lost once by more than 9 points to the Bulls in their last 10 trips to Chicago.  That's a 9-1 ATS system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The underdog is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Magic Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (25-11) come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four coming in with all three losses coming on the road.  Now, they return home where they'll handle the Phoenix Suns to get back on track.

Memphis is 14-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 7.3 points per game.  Phoenix is a solid 13-10 on the road this season, but most of its road wins have come against weak teams with losing records.  In fact, only two of its road wins have come against teams that currently have winning records.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  Indeed, Memphis is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Phoenix.  All five of those wins have come by 5 points or more, and covering this small 4.5-point spread won't be a problem tonight either.

The Grizzlies are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  It's also worth noting that Memphis just got back Zach Randolph from a nine-game absence.  They are going to be a much stronger team going forward with a healthy Randolph back in the lineup.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +3

The Detroit Pistons should not be an underdog at home to the Atlanta Hawks with the way they are playing right now.  This has been a completely different team since letting go of Josh Smith.  In fact, nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Pistons right now.

The Pistons have averaged 107.9 points and 48.0 percent shooting while allowing 92.9 and 42.8 per contest during a seven-game win streak, which began after they waived veteran forward and ex-Hawk Josh Smith. They scored 94.4 points and shot 41.3 percent per game while giving up 101.1 and 45.8 during a 5-23 start.

"Guys have worked harder, they've been more attentive and a lot more together," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We don't have guys that are getting concerned about who's in the game or their playing time or their shots or anything else. They just want to win games."

While the first five wins of this streak came against suspect competition, all five came by double-digits.  Also, the Pistons have validated their play by going on the road and knocking off back-to-back Western Conference powers.  The beat San Antonio 105-104 as 8-point dogs, and then turned around the next night and beat Dallas 108-95 as 9-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are playing tremendous basketball as well having won 20 of their last 22.  However, this is a huge letdown spot for them.  They are coming off three straight wins over Western Conference powers in Portland, the LA Clippers, and Memphis.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Detroit.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

15* Pacers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Indiana +11

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued as double-digit favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.  They also could be caught looking ahead to Cleveland Friday.

Quietly, the Indiana Pacers have been playing some great basketball to get back into the playoff hunt.  They have gone a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are 7-5 straight up during this stretch with all five of their losses coming by 10 points or less, and four of those coming by 3 points or fewer.  You have to go all the way back to December 12th at Toronto (by 12) to find the last time they lost a game by more than 10 points.

Indiana has had Golden State's number in recent meetings.  The Pacers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors.  Their three losses during this stretch came by 2, 11 and 2 points.  So, they have not lost by more than 11 points in any of their last eight meetings with the Warriors.

The Pacers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games versus good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.    Indiana is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in road games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.  Indiana is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game way overvalued due to having lost 12 straight games.  The betting public sees that and wants nothing to do with them, creating some nice line value for us to take advantage.

The Timberwolves have not quit as they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games, which have all been by 13 points or less as they have been competitive in all six of them.  They will certainly show up to play tonight considering this game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

This is a very tough spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just went into Milwaukee and won 102-96 last night, and I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Phoenix very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, the Timberwolves are 4-3 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Suns.  Also, their three losses during this stretch have come by 7, 1 and 1 points.  So, the Timberwolves have not lost to the Suns by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.

The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The 76ers just recently returned home from a brutal seven-game road trip.  They won their first two games at Orlando and at Miami, but then proceeded to lose five straight all on the West Coast to Portland, Utah, Golden State, Phoenix and the LA Clippers.

After losing those five straight, the 76ers were undervalued in their first game back home as 4.5-point dogs to the Cavaliers.  Well, they won that game outright 95-92, and I believe they have an excellent chance to beat the Milwaukee Bucks outright tonight as well.

Milwaukee is in a very tough spot here.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  It went into New York and won 95-82 on Sunday, but then lost 96-102 at home to Phoenix last night.  This team is running on fumes now and won't have much to give against the 76ers tonight.

Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 over the last three seasons.  The home team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 visits to Philadelphia.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Central Division foes.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game with San Antonio.  It just so happened that it occurred right in line with the release of Josh Smith, who just seems to be a cancer wherever he goes.  The Pistons have been playing much freer and looser since Smith's departure.

The Pistons are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games since losing their highest-paid player in Smith.  They have won those five games by an average of 18.2 points per game, so it's not like they are just sneaking by opponents.  They are scoring 14.0 more points and surrendering 10.9 fewer per game without Smith.

"I'm not going to say that teams are afraid to play us - there are several teams in the NBA who scare people more than we do," head coach Stan Van Gundy said. "But we're playing very well right now."

The Spurs (21-14) just aren't the team that won the NBA title last year.  They have been battling injuries all season.  NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard remains out with a hand injury and will miss his 11th consecutive game.  Tony Parker has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is questionable to return tonight.

San Antonio has lost seven of its last 11 games overall to really be just a mediocre team.  All four of its wins during this stretch came by single-digits with a 7-point win over the Clippers, a 4-point win over the Rockets, a 2-point win over the Pelicans, and a 9-point win over the Wizards.

Detroit is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 road games off two straight wins by 10 or more points.  The Pistons are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Detroit is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or greater.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 6-2 ATS in its last eight visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  This was one of my sleeper teams in the Western Conference, and at 17-16, they sit just 1.5 games out of the No. 8 spot in the West.  If they were playing in the East, the Pelicans would challenge for a conference title.

New Orleans comes into this game with Washington playing some of its best basketball of the season.  It has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes home wins over fellow West playoff contenders San Antonio (97-90), Phoenix (110-106) and Houston (111-83).

Washington knows all about how tough the West is because it has lost three straight road games to Western Conference foes.  It lost 87-114 at Dallas, 102-109 at Oklahoma City, and 92-101 at San Antonio in its last three games overall.  Another loss here is likely, and I expect it to be by more than 3 points.

The Pelicans are going to be out for revenge here.  They will be looking to put an end to a six-game losing streak to Washington in this series.  That includes an 80-83 road loss as 4-point underdogs in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on November 29th.

New Orleans is 11-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game.  Washington is just 8-7 on the road where it is getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  The Pelicans are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 home games revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Wizards are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with New Orleans Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Josh Smith effect is the real deal.  He waived and signed by Houston, and the Detroit Pistons proceed to go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall.  He was simply a cancer on this team, and it's been amazing to watch what the Pistons have done without him.

Not only are they winning, they are dominating.  All four of their wins during this streak came by 10 points or more with three of those coming on the road.  They beat Indiana (119-109) at home, and Cleveland (103-80), Orlando (109-86) and New York (97-81) on the road.  The Pistons are winning by an average of 18.0 points.  They are averaging 12.6 points more than they did before the shake-up and are allowing 12.1 fewer.

Extending their win streak to five for the first time since Dec. 4-12, 2009, certainly seems possible against the Kings (14-19), who have allowed an average of 111.7 points over a nine-game stretch in which each opponent has reached the century mark.  The last time they didn't allow 100 was Dec. 13, when the Pistons won 95-90 in Sacramento for their 9th victory in the last 10 meetings.

Sacramento is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Kings are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Sacramento is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Kings are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Detroit.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

20* Raptors/Warriors Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -4.5

This is a matchup between the top team from the Eastern Conference in the Toronto Raptors (24-8) against the top team from the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors (25-5).  I'll gladly side with the top team from the West at home as only 4.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Toronto would not be anywhere close to first place if it played in the stacked West.  What the Warriors have done up to this point is very impressive given that they have played the much tougher schedule.  To go 25-5 is no small feat in the West.

I was able to fade the Warriors with some success following their 16-game winning streak as they were overvalued.  However, after going just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS in their last four games, the Warriors are back to being undervalued here tonight as only 4.5-point home favorites.

The Raptors, on the other hand, are overvalued after winning eight of their last 10 games overall coming in.  Well, they are a tired team right now because they are in the midst of a 6-game road trip.  This is Game No. 5 of the trip that has seen them lose at Chicago 120-129 and at Portland 97-102.

Golden State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings.  The Warriors are 9-0 in their last nine home meetings with the Raptors dating back to 2004 with all nine wins coming by 6 points or more.  Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +4.5

At 23-8 on the season and in second place in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks are obviously off to a very surprising start this year.  However, with that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Hawks simply cannot live up to.  They have no business laying 4.5 points on the road to a Western Conference opponent as the Hawks would just be a mediocre team if they were playing in the West.

The Utah Jazz (11-21) got off to a horrible start this season, but I really like the way they are playing coming into this one.  They have gone 5-2 straight up in their last seven games overall, and one of their losses was a 4-point loss at the LA Clippers as 12-point underdogs.

The five wins have been very impressive.  They went into Miami and won 105-87 as 3.5-point dogs, won at Orlando 101-94 as 4-point dogs, won at Memphis 97-91 as 8-point dogs, beat the 76ers 88-71 at home as 10-point favorites, and beat the Timberwolves 100-94 at home as 7-point favorites.  The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.

The Jazz are going to be out for revenge on the Hawks considering they have lost seven straight in this series.  Their last two losses have come by a combined 5 points, too.  That includes a 97-100 road loss in their first meeting of 2014-15 as 7-point underdogs back on November 12th.

Atlanta is 8-27 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on two days' rest.  Utah is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games after four straight games where it outrebounded its opponent by 5 or more boards.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game overvalued as road favorites over the Orlando Magic.  Brooklyn (15-16) is getting a lot of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers after winning five of its last six games overall while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

A closer look at this stretch shows that the Nets have beaten some very suspect competition.  Four of their wins came against Detroit (by 5), Denver (by 6), and Sacramento (by 8) at home, as well as Boston (by 2) on the road.  Yes, the Nets did beat the Bulls on the road by 14 last time out, but the Bulls were playing a second of a back-to-back and were tired.  The Nets are now in a letdown spot after that big win as well.

The Magic are just 13-22 this season, but they have gone a profitable 19-16 ATS because they have lost so many close games this year.  They are starting to turn some of those close losses into wins here of late, and I really believe this team will be a profitable one to back going forward.

Orlando has won three of its last five games overall.  It beat Boston at home while going on the road and topping both Charlotte and Miami for its three victories during this stretch.  I also believe the Magic are undervalued due to their 23-point loss to the red-hot Pistons last time out, which the betting public is putting too much stock in.  The Magic were playing their 4th game in 5 days and had nothing left in the tank.  With two days off since that loss, they'll come back fresh and ready to go tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Brooklyn and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team has won each of the last six meetings.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Brooklyn.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder get back Kevin Durant tonight from a six-game absence due to an ankle injury.  He practiced fully Monday and Tuesday and head coach Scott Brooks said he looked "lively" in practice and is ready to go.

Oklahoma City will be highly motivated for a win tonight considering, at 15-17, it is looking up at Phoenix (18-15) for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  I look for the Thunder to roll the Suns tonight, especially given the tough situation that Phoenix is in.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing to the Pelicans 106-110 last night.  Meanwhile, the Thunder come in well-rested and ready to go as they've had two days off since last playing on Sunday.  They will bring more energy to this game in front of a raucous home crowd that is anticipating Durant's return.

I also believe the Suns are overvalued right now due to going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I faded them with success last night by backing the Pelicans, and I'll be fading them again tonight.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so they have been beating up on some soft competition to say the least.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight.  The Suns have lost 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder have won seven straight home meetings with the Suns by 24, 7, 31, 18, 11, 10 and 4 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.8 points per game in their last eight home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans (15-15) are staring up at the Phoenix Suns (18-14) for that No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  That makes this a very important game for them when you figure that these two teams are going to be battling for that 8th spot all season, and it could come down to a tiebreaker.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in my book.  It has an excellent lineup that can beat you a number of different ways.  Anthony Davis (24.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) is having an MVP-caliber season.  Tyreke Evans (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.3 rpg) and Jrue Holiday (15.5 ppg, 7.2 apg) create shots for their teammates like Ryan Anderson (15.3 ppg), who is one of the best 3-point shooters in the game for a big man.

Not only will the Pelicans be motivated to try and pull a game closer to the Suns for that 8th seed, they are also out for revenge in this game as well.  They lost all four meetings with the Suns last year and have not forgotten.  Look for them to get on the board with a win in the first meeting between these teams of the 2014-15 season.

The Suns could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  That's because they are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Well, those six wins came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so it's not like they are beating up on high-quality opponents.  It's now time to fade the Suns.

New Orleans is 9-4 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 5.6 points per game.  It is scoring 107.9 points at home on 47.9% shooting.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take New Orleans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Cleveland Cavaliers as underdogs this season.  I'm going to take advantage Tuesday as 4-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cavaliers could not possibly be more undervalued at any point in the season than they are right now.  They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games overall, and they have lost two of their last three in ugly fashion to Miami (91-101) and Detroit (80-103).

Because of this recent stretch of poor play, I look for the Cavaliers to come out highly motivated for a victory in this game tonight.  Also, they just lost recently at home to Atlanta 98-127 on December 17th in what was their worst loss of the year.  They obviously haven't forgotten less than two weeks later and will be out for revenge in a big way.

Conversely, Atlanta could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has won 15 of its last 17 games overall while going 12-4-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to jump on this team.  I'm looking to fade them when this happens.

Kyrie Irving is expected to return from a two-game absence.  A knee injury has kept him out of action ever since the 4th quarter of a loss to Miami on Christmas Day.  He missed the teams 98-89 win at Orlando and the team's 80-103 loss to Detroit. 

Having a healthy Irving back will make a huge difference for this team going forward.  Even if for whatever reason he doesn't play tonight like he's expected to, Lebron James and company have enough to get it done.

Atlanta is 5-17 ATS when playing with two days of rest over the last two seasons.  The Hawks are 20-37 ATS in their last 57 home games following one or more consecutive wins.  The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Portland Trail Blazers are in the ultimate letdown spot here tonight.  I look for them to fail to bring the kind of effort to the court it's going to take to put away the pesky Philadelphia 76ers by more than 14 points in this one as a result.

Portland is coming off a four-game road trip against New Orleans, San Antonio, Houston and Oklahoma City.  It went an impressive 3-1 on that trip that included a pair of overtime wins over both the Spurs and Thunder.  It's simply going to be hard for them to be motivated in their first game back home following that huge road trip against the West's elite.

The 76ers have won back-to-back road games coming in.  They went into Orlando and won 96-88 as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st, and then went into Miami and won 91-87 as 7.5-point dogs on December 23rd.  In fact, the 76ers have played their best basketball on the road this season as all four of their wins have come away from home.

The 76ers have played the Blazers very tough here in recent meetings.  Indeed, they have only lost by more than 10 points once in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers, making for an 11-1 system when factoring in this 14-point spread.  They lost 104-114 at home to the Blazers as 13-point dogs in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 101-99 in Portland as 12-point dogs in their final meeting of 2013-14.

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  It is only losing by 4.6 points per game against these teams.  The 76ers are 79-49 ATS in their last 128 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. 

Portland is 0-10 ATS in hits last 10 home games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog.  It is losing in these spots by an average of 10.6 points per game.  This trend just goes to show that the Blazers tend to let down at home following a tough stretch of games against really good teams.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, which has them way undervalued as the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  They should be laying more than two points to the Boston Celtics here.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Magic just lost to the Celtics on the road on December 17th less than a week ago.  So, they are going to be out for revenge in this rematch, and I look for them to get it now that they are finally healthy and at full strength.

After all, home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings between the Magic and Celtics, and I look for that trend to continue here tonight.

I also question the motivation and mental state of the Celtics right now.  They just traded away their best player in Rajon Rondo, and these players cannot feel comfortable about it knowing that Danny Ainge is still in full-blown rebuilding mode.

In their first game without Rondo, the Celtics were rolled at Miami 84-100 on Sunday.  They clearly were out of sync in that game without Rondo, and that 16-point loss is really bad when you consider that Miami was playing without Chris Bosh.

Boston is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 3-7 on the road this season.  Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the best teams in the West at 20-8 this season.  They just got even stronger with the addition of Rajon Rondo a few days ago, who helped lead them to a 99-93 home win over San Antonio in his Dallas debut on Saturday. 

The Mavericks are showing excellent value here as only 4-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks Monday.  The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their second game in five days, which has given Rondo extra time to get used to playing on his new team.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to having won 12 of its last 13 games overall while going 10-3 ATS in the process.  The betting public is obviously all over them right now, especially after their back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Houston.  It's going to be very tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers going forward, especially tonight.

Dallas has won five of its last eight meetings with Atlanta with all five of those victories coming by at least 5 points, and four by 8 points or more.  Two of Atlanta's last three wins against Dallas have come by a combined 5 points.  As a result, the Mavs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Hawks as well.

Atlanta has been dominating the Eastern Conference, but it has been a completely different story against the West.  The Hawks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. Western Conference foes.  Dallas is 54-25 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS loss.  The Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets have been waiting for this game since the playoffs.  This will be their first meeting with the Blazers since losing to them in the first round of the 2013-14 playoffs in six games.  There will be no questioning their motivation in this one, especially considering they have lost two straight coming in.

Portland comes in way overvalued after having won each of its last five games overall, including two wins against the defending champion Spurs, who were short-handed both times they faced the Blazers.  While the Blazers are one of the better teams in the West, they are simply getting too much respect here as short road underdogs.

All four of Portland's wins over Houston in the playoffs came by 7 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Houston has still won seven of its last 12 meetings with Portland with all seven of those wins coming by 5 points or more, including five by double-digits.

Portland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off a game where it was called for 13 or less fouls.  The Blazers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Houston is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Take the Rockets Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls (17-9) will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome in Eastern Conference-leading Toronto (22-6) to the United Center Monday.  They will be out to prove that they are the best team in the East in this one.

Helping their cause is the fact that they are expected to be at nearly full strength for this one.  Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose are all listed as probable.  Meanwhile, Toronto remains without second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).

The Raptors come in overvalued having won six straight games, all against teams with losing records.  They also come in extremely tired.  This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 6th game in 9 days for the Raptors, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Chicago has had two days' rest coming in after last playing on Friday, where it beat Memphis 103-97 on the road.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12.5

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 21-6.  They own the best record in the Eastern Conference, but with that strong performance up to this point comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are way overvalued tonight.

The New York Knicks own one of the worst records in the NBA at 5-23.  While that is terrible and unexpected, I have no doubt that the Knicks are better than their record.  They are also way undervalued right now due to that record as they are catching a whopping 12.5 points against their division rivals today.

A whopping 18 of New York's 23 losses have come by 11 points or less.  That includes 13 losses by 7 points or fewer.  This team is going to be showing great value going forward as a result, especially with the recent return of Carmelo Anthony from a knee injury.  He is expected to play again today, and Amare Stoudemire is also returning from a one-game absence.

This is a rivalry game since these teams play in the same division.  They just played a few days ago as the Raptors beat the Knicks on the road 95-90 in overtime on December 14th.  The Knicks will be out for revenge in this one, while the Raptors may fail to show up after just recently beating the Knicks.

This is also a lookahead spot for Toronto.  It has a huge stretch of six road games coming up that starts tomorrow.  It goes to Chicago tomorrow and will be looking ahead to that game.  The upcoming road slate includes games against the Bulls, Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Warriors and Suns.  That's certainly something to be looking forward to for the Raptors.

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings.  New York is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Toronto has beaten New York by more than 12 points just once in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

This is a great spot to fade the Portland Trail Blazers and back the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Blazers are running on fumes right now with the schedule they have faced coming into this game and will have nothing left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Adding to that is the fact that they played a triple-overtime game against San Antonio last night.  I just can't see them putting forth a much effort in this game at all.

New Orleans comes on fresh after having yesterday off following its 99-90 win at Houston on Thursday.  The Pelicans have now won five of their last seven games overall to climb back above .500 at 13-12.  Anthony Davis is playing at an MVP-caliber level to lead the way.  It's only losses have come to Golden State (122-128, OT) and Dallas (107-112) during this seven-game stretch.

Home-court advantage has been enormous in this series as the home team has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between New Orleans and Portland.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Portland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine meetings with New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3

The Golden State Warriors just had their 16-game winning streak snapped.  Teams that have extended winning streaks come to an end the game before usually come out flat the next game because they are no longer focused in on keeping that winning streak going.  I look for the Warriors to drop their second straight game after falling to the Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Now, Golden State has to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder have gotten back to 12-13 on the season and will be pushing hard to get to .500 tonight with another victory.

The Thunder have won seven straight games coming in with six of those coming by 9 points or more.  To no surprise, this streak started just about when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the lineup.  Now, the Thunder are at full strength and a very dangerous team that should not be an underdog to almost anyone.

Westbrook is averaging 27.8 points on 50.9 percent shooting in nine games since returning from a fractured right hand.  Durant is still rounding into his superstar form, averaging 21.5 points in eight games since his debut from a fractured right foot.

While the offense has been superb in scoring at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games, the defense has been very good as well.  The Thunder are giving up 93.1 points per game and 40.2 percent shooting during their seven-game winning streak.  They have taken 13 of their last 18 meetings with the Warriors.

Oklahoma City is 18-6 ATS In its last 24 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  Golden State is 14-27 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.  Oklahoma City is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  The Thunder are 5-0 ATS In their last five games overall.  OKC is 7-1 ATS In its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five visits to Golden State.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* Nets/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +11

The Toronto Raptors are way overvalued right now because they own the best record in the Eastern Conference at 19-6.  They now find themselves favored by double-digits for only the fifth time this season against the Brooklyn Nets tonight, which is way too much.

Toronto hasn't been as dominant of late because it has been without its second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) for the last 10 games.  It has gone just 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  This team just isn't as good without DeRozan in the lineup.

Yes, I know the Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing 91-95 to Miami yesterday, but I'm not too concerned about it.  They had two days off prior to that Miami game to rest.  Plus, this is a National TV game on ESPN, so they will be motivated to push through whatever fatigue they are feeling.

The Nets have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS.  They have only been beaten twice on the road by more than 10 points on the road three times all year.  They stayed within 10 of Phoenix, Golden State and Portland to name a few of their solid road performances.  The beat the Hornets 114-87 in their last road game.

Brooklyn beat Toronto in the playoffs last year in seven games and has won five of the last eight meetings overall.  In fact, Brooklyn has not lost to Toronto by more than 8 points in any of their last nine meetings.  That's a perfect 9-0 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Toronto.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1

The Phoenix Suns are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in with five of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  This team is much better than their 12-14 record to this point in the season, and they will be laying it all on the line to try and end this skid.

The Suns couldn't ask for a much better opponent to put an end to this losing streak.  They'll be facing a Charlotte Hornets team that is just 6-18 on the season, and one that has lost 13 of their last 15 games coming in.  Their only wins came at home against lowly New York and Boston.

Phoenix has owned Charlotte in recent meeting as well.  It is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Hornets.  All five of those victories came by 6 points or more as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 199-127 (61%) ATS since 1996.

The Suns are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on 1 days rest.  Phoenix is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are surging since both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant returned.  After digging themselves an early hole, the Thunder (11-13) cannot afford to take games off the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs.  That's why you know they are going to bring it every night, and they certainly have done that of late.

Indeed, the Thunder 6-0 in their last six games overall with the last four coming via blowout.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with a 13-point win over Milwaukee, a 9-point win over Cleveland, a 19-point win at Minnesota, and a 24-point win against Phoenix.

Sacramento is in shambles right now.  It has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, which led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone.  This stretch has coincided with the loss of DeMarcus Cousins to a battle with viral meningitis.  The Kings fell to 2-7 without Cousins in a 95-90 home loss to four-win Detroit last time out.  Cousins remains out tonight.

Oklahoma City simply owns Sacramento.  The Thunder have won 11 consecutive meetings with the Kings, and dating back further they are 17-1 in their last 18.  I look for this domination to continue tonight as the Thunder roll to a blowout victory over the Kings.

The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The Kings are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued right now due to their current five-game losing streak that has dropped them to 12-13 on the season.  Now, they are only 4.5-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight when they should be closer to double-digit favorites.

The Suns have played a tough stretch of games during this losing streak, and four of the five losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost at Houston, at LA Clippers and at Oklahoma City.  They aren't all of a sudden a bad team due to this streak, they just have had some bad fortune.  The public perception on them is way down, and now it's time to back the Suns as they play an inspired effort at home tonight to put an end to this skid.

Milwaukee is actually overvalued right now due to its decent 12-12 start to the year.  While there's no question the Bucks are improved, they have no business only catching 4.5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Bucks have lost five of their last seven coming in.  They are just 5-8 on the road this season where they are giving up 103.5 points per game.

Phoenix has owned Milwaukee in recent meetings.  It is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Milwaukee overall with five of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Suns swept the season series with the Bucks last year, winning 116-100 at home and 126-117 on the road.  I like their chances of earning another blowout victory here tonight.

Milwaukee is in a letdown spot after beating the Clippers at home on Saturday, who were tired playing the second of a back-to-back.  Milwaukee is 4-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Phoenix is 30-13-1 ATS in its last 44 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic have been a money-making machine for me here of late, and I'm going to continue to ride them because they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case in today's situation.

Orlando is a much better team than its 10-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also topping Atlanta (100-99) at home.  They suffered close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this eight-game stretch.

The Magic just got back their leading scorer and rebounder in Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) after a five-game absence.  He returned in time to beat the Hawks on Saturday, and now he's back to full strength and the Magic should be an even more dangerous team going forward.  They also feel pretty good about themselves after Tobias Harris hit a game-winner at the buzzer to beat Atlanta.

While I like what I've seen from the Magic of late, this is more of a fade of Toronto than anything.  The Raptors are way overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6.  Well, they have shown signs of slowing down here of late, going just 5-4 in their last nine games overall.  A lot of that has had to with an injury to second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg), who has missed the past nine games with a groin injury.

DeRozan will miss this game as well.  Without him, this roster is very thin.  The Raptors are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Plus, they went to overtime to beat New York on the road last night, and I look for them to come out tired and flat in this game against the re-energized Magic.  Orlando will be giving the better effort in this one, and it will allow them to stay within 7 points and possibly pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +7

The New York Knicks own one of the league's worst records at this point in the season at 5-20.  As a result, they are way undervalued right now.  I certainly do not believe they are one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they have simply been unlucky in close games this year.

Indeed, a whopping 13 of the Knicks' 20 losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  That is about as unlucky as it gets.  This team has not quit, however, as it is coming off a big win at Boston 101-95 on Friday to put an end to an extended losing streak.  I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight as well.

At 17-6 on the season and with one of the best records in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors are clearly overvalued right now.  This combination of the Raptors being overvalued and the Knicks undervalued has created some massive line inflation in this game.  The Raptors should not be laying 7 points on the road to the Knicks.

New York won each of its final two meetings of the season with with the Raptors in 2013-14.  It won 108-100 as a 5.5-point road underdog, and 95-92 as a 6-point home dog.  It has actually taken three of its last five from Toronto.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - hot shooting team - three straight games making at least 47% of their shots are 92-52 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +3.5

This is a classic home-and-home situation here between Orlando and Atlanta.  These teams played last night in Atlanta with the Hawks coming away with an 87-81 home victory.  I backed the Magic +8 with success in that game, and I'll turn around and back them again here.

You almost always want to take the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation in the second game no matter the location.  That's because the team that lost the first game is going to be highly motivated for revenge, while the team that won the first game finds it hard to be motivated to beat a team two days in a row.

Orlando is a team that is better than its 9-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 16-6 start and a current nine-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying any points to the Magic tonight.  All nine of the Hawks' wins during their streak have come against teams with .500 or worse records.

One key here is that Orlando is expected to have its best player back after a five-game absence.  Leading scorer and rebounder Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) has missed the last five games with a back injury, including last night's game, but he is listed as probable for this one.  He'll give this team a huge boost, especially since this is the second of a back-to-back situation.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Orlando Saturday.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1.5

The Golden State Warriors are the single-most overrated team in the NBA at this point in the season because they own the league's best record at 17-2.  Now, they actually find themselves favored on the road against one of the best teams in the West in Dallas.

Dallas is among the league's best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages an NBA-best 110.5 points.  It has scored at least 105 points in nine straight games while going 7-2 during this stretch.

The Mavericks are 9-3 at home this season where their 115.5 points per game scored leads the NBA as well.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as well.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings.

Dallas is 36-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 53-24 ATS in their last 77 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans look to get back to .500 as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in a big game for them.  I look for the Pelicans to take it to the Cavaliers, who have nothing left in the tank right now.

Cleveland will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Cavaliers exerted a lot of energy last night in a 94-103 loss to the Thunder.  They were down 20 in the second half and fought back to get within 3, but ultimately lost by 9.

Plus, Lebron James missed last night's game with knee soreness.  He is questionable to play tonight as well.  Whether he plays or not I still recommend a play on the Pelicans, but if he doesn't that will only be an added bonus.

The Pelicans have had the Cavaliers' number in recent meetings.  They have won six of their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Home-court advantage has also been big in this series.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings with the only exception being a Pelicans' 100-89 road win last year.

The Pelicans are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 6-2 at home this season, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  It has gone 9-15 SU this season, but a very profitable 14-10 ATS as it has been very competitive in most of its game.  Eight of its losses have come by 8 points or less.

The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering a close road loss to Golden State (97-98), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 15-6 start and a current eight-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying 8 points to the Magic tonight.  All eight wins during their streak have come against teams with losing records.

Orlando split the season series with Atlanta last season while going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Its two losses came by 3 and 10 points, while its two wins came by 17 and 7 points.  So, it actually outscored the Hawks in their four meetings last year.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 15-6 ATS int he last 21 meetings.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 80-42 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.  The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets are playing horrible right now amidst all of their trade rumors.  Nets' management has been open about trading Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez to free up salary cap space.  They just traded Andrei Kirilenko and Jorge Guitierrez to the 76ers for Brandon Davies on Thursday.

Both Johnson and Lopez sat out a 105-80 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.  Both were expected to play coming into that game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if each just decided to sit amidst the trade rumors.  This is a team in serious disarray right now, and one that cannot be trusted to bring their "A" game to the floor on a nightly basis until these trade rumors blow over.

The Nets have been an absolute embarrassment here of late, which is probably what prompted the rumors.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, with home losses to Atlanta by 23 and Cleveland by 22, as well as that road loss to the Bulls by 25.  So, they have been outscored by a combined 70 points in their last three and by an average of 23.3 points per game.

The 76ers, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight here of late.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall to make backers a lot of money.  Six of their last nine games have been decided by 8 points or less.  That includes narrow losses to some good teams in Dallas (103-110) and San Antonio (103-109).

This has been a very closely-contested series here of late.  The 76ers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets as they have played them very tough.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less, and by a combined 19 points total.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in what will be a raucous atmosphere for the home team.  This will be just the second home game all season where both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been healthy.

The first went very well as the Thunder dismantled the Bucks 114-101 on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.  I was on them in that game, and I'm on them again here for many of the same reasons.

The Thunder are now at full strength health-wise with Durant and Westbrook back.  Their time away allowed several role players on this team to grow their games, which will only make them stronger as a team going forward.  They have won five of their last six games coming in.

Cleveland is overvalued here due to its eight-game winning streak coming into this game.  This streak followed a 6-7 start.  It has mostly come against a very weak schedule as the wins have come against the Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, Nets and Raptors (twice).  The Thunder are the best team they have played since a home loss to San Antonio on November 19th.

The Cavs are 14-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  OKC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

Note - I still recommend a play on the Thunder -6.5 with Lebron James out.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5

I really like the mental and physical state of the Orlando Magic coming into this one.  They have had three days' rest since last playing on Saturday and will be well-rested and ready to go.  This extra time has allowed their best player, Nikola Vucevic, to get healthy.

Vucevic has missed the last four games, but he's probably to return tonight.  He and the rest of these players are going to want revenge after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Washington Wizards by a combined 12 points.  They lost 98-105 on the road and 93-98 at home.

Washington, on the other hand, will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that it has already beaten twice.  That's especially the case with a bigger game against the Clippers on deck.  Plus, the Wizards are the more tired team as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  That includes a double-OT win over Boston (133-132) at home Monday.

Orlando has been playing well of late even without Vucevic.  It has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It went on the road and beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96), while also suffering a one-point loss at Golden State (97-98), which currently owns the league's best record.

The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

To say it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere in Oklahoma City tonight would be a massive understatement.  The Thunder faithful will be out in full fledge tonight to support Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  This will be the first home game of the season where both of these superstars have suited up.

The Thunder have gone 4-1 in their last four games overall.  Westbrook has played in four of those games, while Durant has played in the last three.  These two have showed little rust.  Wesbrook is averaging 23.7 points, 6.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds, while Durant is averaging 21.7 points.  They'll both only continue to get stronger as the season goes on.

Milwaukee is overvalued at this point in the season due to its surprising 11-11 start.  It has started to show a lot of vulnerability in its last five games as the schedule has ramped up.  It has lost four of its last five games with its only win coming against Miami.  It was beaten handily at Dallas 102-125 on Sunday, and a similar beat down can be expected at the hands of the Thunder tonight.

OKC is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Milwaukee in which both Durant has played.  It has won by 16, 13, 10 and 20 points in those four games for an average margin of victory of 14.8 points per game.  Three of those four wins came on the road, with the 16-point victory coming at home.

The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Oklahoma City.  Roll with the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +9

This is a home-and-home situation tonight between the Celtics and Wizards.  I backed the Celtics are 4-point underdogs with success yesterday as they beat the Wizards 101-93 at home.

I know that the Wizards will be out for revenge tonight in this back-to-back situation, but how many points is revenge worth?  I don't believe it's worth as many points as the oddsmakers have put into this spread.  Asking the Wizards to win by double-digits to cover the spread is asking too much.

That's especially the case with the way the Celtics are playing right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Detroit (109-102), LA Lakers (113-96) and Washington (101-93).  I believe the Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Boston has played a pretty brutal schedule during its 7-11 start and has several close losses against playoff teams along the way.  Seven of its 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including road losses to Dallas (113-118) and Atlanta (105-109), as well as home losses to Toronto (107-110), Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Portland (88-94) and Chicago (102-109).

Washington, on the other hand, is way overvalued do to its 13-6 start to the season.  Its schedule has been much easier.  Its 13 wins have come against Orlando (twice), Milwaukee (twice), New York, Indiana (twice), Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami, LA Lakers and Denver.  It only has one win against a team (Cleveland) that currently has a winning record.

The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in road games against good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 13-4 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are showing excellent value tonight as a pick 'em against the Atlanta Hawks.  This team has done a great job of staying competitive despite all of the injuries early in the season, and they are finally getting healthy now.

David West recently returned from injury to give the lineup a big boost.  The Pacers come in undervalued due to having lost four in a row, but those four all came on the road against currently playoff contenders Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland and Sacramento.  Add road games at Dallas and San Antonio, and this has been a brutal stretch over the past seven games.

Atlanta comes in overvalued due to its current six-game winning streak.  Its schedule has been much easier during this stretch, and it has done most of its damage at home this season.  It is 9-2 at home compared to just 4-4 on the road.

The Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations in the NBA.  The Pacers, meanwhile, will be well-rested and ready to go since they come in on two days' rest.  They'll be highly motivated to put an end to this four-game losing streak as well.

Plays against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or less two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 8-0 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  The Pacers are 52-32 ATS in their last 84 games following a loss, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a defeat.  Take the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +4

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now due to their 6-11 start.  I have no doubt this team is better than its record would indicate as it has played several of the top teams in the NBA very close all year.

Its 11 losses have comes to Houston, Dallas (by 5), Toronto (by 3), OKC, Cleveland (by 1) Phoenix (by 4), Memphis, Portland (by 6), Chicago (by 7), San Antonio and Atlanta (by 4).  All those close losses show that they can play with anyone.

Boston has finally been rewarded with a couple wins in a row for its solid play.  It beat Detroit 109-102 and followed that up with a 113-96 beat down of the Lakers last time out.  I look for it to extend its winning streak to three games tonight.

Washington (13-5) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA right now due to its record.  It has simply benefited from playing 11 home games compared to 7 road games.  It is just 4-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game away from home.  Its four road wins have come against Orlando, New York, Indiana and Milwaukee, four of the worst teams in the NBA.

Plays on underdogs (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-54 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing very well right now having one three of their last four games with all three victories coming on the road.  The only loss was a 129-132 (2 OT) setback at home to one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Dallas Mavericks. 

This solid play by the Bulls has coincided with a healthy return of Derrick Rose.  The former MVP has averaged 16.2 points and 5.1 assists per game this season and continues to get better with each game.  Pau Gasol (19.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg) has proven to be a huge addition this year.  The Bulls will be amped up to play the team with the best record in the NBA in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night.

While the Warriors have the best record in the NBA, I certainly do not believe they are the best team.  They have simply benefited from playing a very easy schedule.  They come in way overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, which comes to an end tonight.

A closer look at this streak shows that it has come against cake opponents.  The 11 wins have come against the Nets (8-10), Bobcats (5-15) twice, Lakers (5-15), Jazz (5-15), Thunder (6-13), Heat (9-10), Magic (8-14) twice, Pistons (3-15) and Pelicans (8-9).  All 11 wins have come against teams with losing records who have a combined 57-112 (33.7%) record in 2014.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in 10 meetings since 2009.  Chicago is 5-0 straight up in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  It has won those five games by an average of 18.6 points per game.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics get the nod Friday as small 3.5-point home favorites against the hapless Los Angeles Lakers.  I look for them to roll to victory tonight to easily get the win and cover.

Boston (5-11) has been better than its record would suggest, but it has simply fallen victim of a very tough schedule to this point.  Its 11 losses have come to Houston, Dallas, Toronto, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Phoenix, Memphis, Portland, Chicago, San Antonio and Atlanta.  All but one of those teams has a winning record.

Even in those 11 losses, the Celtics have been mostly competitive with a chance to win almost all of them.  Seven of the 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including five by 5 points or fewer.  The Celtics have taken care of teams they are supposed to beat like the Lakers.

Los Angeles hasn't been all that competitive in its 5-14 start.  Seven of its 14 losses have come by double-digits, including a 95-11 road loss to Washington on Wednesday.  The Lakers are giving up 111.1 points per game this season and getting outscored by 7.4 points per game.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the road and getting outscored by 9.3 points per game away from home.

The home team has won four of the last five meetings between these squads.  Los Angeles is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after covering two of its last three ATS coming in.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +4.5

The Denver Nuggets are playing as well as almost anyone coming into this game with the Washington Wizards.  I believe there is a ton of value in backing them as 4.5-point underdogs here in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Denver has gone 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes road wins over the Cavaliers (106-97), Lakers (101-94) and Jazz (103-101), as well as home wins over OKC (107-100), New Orleans (117-97), Chicago (114-109) and Phoenix (122-97).  Its only losses came at Phoenix (112-120) and at home against Portland (103-105).

The Nuggets have now scored 101 or more points in each of their last nine games overall as their offense is hitting on all cylinders. In fact, dating back further, they have scored at least 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games.

Washington comes in overvalued here after having won three in a row.  It is not at full strength right now, either.  Both Paul Pierce and Nene are questionable to play tonight with injuries, while Martell Webster remains out.

Denver has won six of its last eight meetings with Washington, including both meetings last year.  Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Nuggets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Denver is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their mediocre 8-8 start, while the Golden State Warriors are one of the most overrated teams due to their 15-2 start.  This combination has created some great line value for us tonight to pounce on the Pelicans as 8.5-point underdogs.

Golden State has won 10 straight games coming in, and now it has a huge target on its back.  It has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to tonight, and that started to show last game.  The Warriors only beat the Magic 98-97 as 14.5-point home favorites Tuesday night.

A closer look at this winning streak shows that it has more to do with a lack of competitions than anything.  Indeed, the 10 wins have come against the likes of the Nets, Hornets (twice), Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Heat, Magic (twice) and Pistons.  All of those teams are .500 or worse with nine of those games coming against teams with losing records.  That's no impressive at all in my book.

What was impressive to me was New Orleans' 112-104 win over Oklahoma City on Monday night.  Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played for the Thunder, and played well, too.  The Pelicans had lost three straight to quality teams coming into that game and showed some resolve and what they were capable of.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright tonight, let alone cover the 8.5-point spread.  This is one of the most talented teams in the NBA.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Cavs/Knicks NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +8

Yes, the New York Knicks are 4-15 this season and have really stunk up the joint for the most part.  However, this team isn't nearly as bad as its record would indicate, but it is undervalued at this point because of that poor record.  We're getting excellent value on the Knicks at home Thursday night.

The Knicks have lost five straight coming into this game, but easily could have won four of those, and they were all against good teams.  They only lost by 5 at Houston (86-91), by 7 at Dallas (102-109), by 7 to Miami (79-86), and by 5 to Brooklyn (93-98) during this stretch.  They aren't going to lost by 8 or more to Cleveland tonight.

Conversely, the Cavaliers come into this game overvalued because they have won four straight games coming in.  Well, all four of those came at home and against some suspect competition.  They beat Orlando, Washington, Indiana and Milwaukee, including just a 3-point win over the Bucks (111-108) last time out.  They don't just magically have everything figured out now after their 6-7 start.

The Cavaliers have not played well at all on the road this season.  They are actually getting outscored by an average of 3.0 points per game away from home, where they have played little to no defense.  They are giving up 104.0 points per game on 49.3% shooting in road games.

While the Knicks are just 3-7 at home, they are only getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  They are playing better defense at home than on the road.  They are only allowing 94.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home. 

I also like the fact that Jose Calderon recently returned to the lineup to give the offense a major boost, and that J.R. Smith is expected to return tonight as well.  The Knicks did beat the Cavaliers 95-90 on the road back in the opener, and they are fully capable of pulling off the upset again tonight, let alone staying within 8 points.

The Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Thursday games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SPECIAL on Utah Jazz +4

This play is more of a fade of the Toronto Raptors than a play on the Utah Jazz, who obviously haven't been great this season at 5-13.  The Raptors are just in a really tough spot here and I don't see them performing well because of it.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 8th game in 13 days.  That includes a double-overtime loss to the Lakers on Sunday as well as a 117-109 win at Sacramento last night against a Kings team that was playing without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.

The Raptors are already short-handed right now as they are without their second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  They didn't do well without him against the Lakers, and they were fortunate to win last night against the Kings, who again were without Cousins.  The longer they go without him, the tougher it's going to be.  I believe it catches up with them tonight, as it did against the Lakers.

Utah comes in way undervalued due to its current six-game losing streak.  It has played a gauntlet of a schedule during this skid with losses to the Warriors, Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets, who are all playoff contenders.  This will be only the 3rd game in 7 days for the Jazz, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight to try and put and end to this skid.

The Jazz are 53-33 ATS in their last 86 home games off a loss to a division rival.  Utah is 151-117 ATS in its last 268 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on one days' rest.  Toronto is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 meetings with the Jazz, including 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5

Both the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics have been struggling this season, but the Pistons have been worse.  They are just 3-15 on the year against a softer schedule than the Celtics, who are 4-11 on the season.

Yes, Boston has lost seven of its last eight games overall, but a closer look at the opponents tells the story.  Its seven losses have come to Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Memphis (100-117), Portland (88-94), Chicago (102-109), San Antonio (89-111) and Atlanta (105-109).  If that's not a gauntlet, I don't know what is.  Plus, the Celtics played most of those playoff contenders right down to the wire.

Detroit has lost nine straight coming in.  That includes home losses to Orlando (93-107), Milwaukee (88-104) and the LA Lakers (96-106), as well as a road loss to the Bucks (86-98).  As you can see, it has lost by double-digits to some really bad teams during this streak, so its problems have a lot more to do with being terrible than the schedule.  The following comments tell the story.

"Offensively, we just continue to be awful," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We're really messed up right now as a team. ... We have a lot of dilemmas, a lot of guys feeling pressure, but we're really not right mentally right now. That's got to change before anything else does."

Detroit is 12-30 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-8 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Detroit is 3-12 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 6.6 points per game. 

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Pistons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the East.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on 0 days' rest.  Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a big home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  The Nets did play last night in a 98-93 victory over the Knicks, but it's a short trip back home, which will lessen the second of a back-to-back factor.

Plus, this will still only be Brooklyn's 3rd game the past 7 days and 4th game in the past 11 days, so that will also soften the blow from being a back-to-back situation.  Add to that the fact that the Nets will be out for revenge from an 87-99 loss to Spurs on the road on November 22nd, and we have a really solid play here.

You also have to consider that the 87-99 loss to the Spurs was a tough situation for the Nets as they were playing the second of a back-to-back after winning in Oklahoma City the previous night.  It was also their 7th game in an 11-day span, so they were dead tired for that contest.

San Antonio is simply way overvalued here.  This is a team that is coming off a 109-103 win at Philadelphia last time out, and it is overvalued due to winning eight straight games coming in.  Asking it to go on the road and win by double-digits against a quality Brooklyn team to beat us is asking too much.

The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, including a 103-89 victory for the Nets at home last year.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to be a very tired bunch tonight as they take on the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to Dallas 129-132 in double-overtime last night.  I simply do not believe they'll have much left in the tank.

Charlotte, on the other hand, comes into this game well-rested and ready to go.  It last played on Saturday, so it has had three days of rest in between games.  It will also be highly motivated to put and end to a nine-game losing streak that has seen five of those losses come by single-digits, including four by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets have played the Bulls very tough in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  The Hornets won their last home games against the Bulls by a final of 91-86 (OT) in their final meeting of 2014.  Couple their tough play against Chicago with the horrible spot for the Bulls, and that makes this an excellent play tonight.

The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on no rest.  Chicago is 19-39-1 ATS in its last 59 when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Bulls are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. 

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Hornets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Central division foes.  Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 Wednesday games.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +14

The Los Angeles Clippers were 5-4 heading into their seven-game road trip and not playing very well at all.  Well, they won six of their seven games during that trip with their only loss coming to Western Conference-leading Memphis.

"We made it a business trip," point guard Chris Paul said. "We got out of our own way. We played a little bit more free and really moved the ball. Most of all, our defense was pretty good."

Well, now I expect them to have a letdown after such a successful trip when they return home Monday.  That first game home after a long road trip is always tough on players.  They have so many obligations when they get back home that they can easily forget about basketball.  I don't believe the Clippers will play with the kind of focus it takes to put away Minnesota by more than 14 points Monday.

The Clippers have covered five of their last seven games, while the Timberwolves have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games with one push.  The betting public has taken notice, which is the reason why this line is so inflated.  There's clearly value in backing the Timberwolves as such a massive dog here.

I know Minnesota is dealing with some injuries right now, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and other players have stepped up.  Mo Williams is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and guys like Thaddeus Young (13.9 ppg), Andrew Wiggins (11.6 ppg), Corey Brewer (10.9 ppg) and Shabazz Muhammad (9.5 ppg) have stepped up their games.

Minnesota will be motivated to put an end to a 9-game losing streak to Los Angeles in this series.  While that is concerning, a closer look shows that it has rarely been blown out by the Clippers.  Indeed, The Clippers have only beaten the Timberwolves by more than 13 points once in those nine meetings.  The last four have all been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 4 or fewer.

Plays on road teams (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers (0-15) are desperate for their first win of the season.  They could have a good shot of pulling off the upset against the Dallas Mavericks tonight given the situation, and I fully expect them to stay within 12 points at the very least.

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-15 team, which has driven this line up higher than it should be tonight.  The 76ers have actually been undervalued over the past week.  They are 2-1 ATS against the closing line in their last three games.

The 76ers only lost 83-91 at New York as an 11-point underdog, 104-114 against Portland as a 13-point dog, and 91-99 against Brooklyn as a 7-point dog.  They have been much more competitive in these three games, and they should continue that trend tonight.

Dallas is in a very difficult spot.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  It is coming off a hard-fought 106-102 win at Eastern Conference-leading Toronto last night, setting it up for a letdown spot here as well.  This tired team won't have what it takes to put away the 76ers by 13-plus points.  Plus, Philadelphia comes in on two days' rest after last playing on Wednesday.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 51-22 (69.9%) ATS since 1996.  Philadelphia is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be laying this many points to anyone with the state they are in this season.  They are playing without four starters from last year in Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and David West.  West is questionable to return tonight, and Roy Hibbert is also questionable.

The Pacers have shown some heart by getting to 6-9 thus far, but this still isn't a very good team, and certainly not one that should be laying this many points.  Only once this season have the Pacers been more than a 4-point favorite, and that was back in their opener as 7.5-point favorites against lowly Philadelphia.

Orlando has made some strides this season as it has been much more competitive with a 6-11 record.  It has lost three straight coming in, but those three came to Miami, Cleveland and Golden State, which are three of the better teams in the NBA.  This rough patch has the Magic undervalued right now.

The Pacers are overvalued due to solid performances on the road in their last two games.  They actually beat Dallas 111-100 as a 14-point underdog as the Mavs simply had a letdown.  They also hung tough against San Antonio last time out in a 100-106 road loss as a 13-point dog.  With Cleveland on deck tomorrow, this is a huge letdown and lookahead spot.  They'll let down following a game against the defending champion Spurs, and they'll be looking ahead to Lebron James and the Cavs tomorrow.

Orlando is 26-12 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Orlando is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.  The Pacers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued due to their 12-2 record that has them in second place in the Western Conference.  The only reason they are 9-point favorites here is because the betting public is all over them due to their fast start, which has created expectations from the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

Charlotte is undervalued right now due to its 4-12 start that has it ranking near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.  There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should not be catching nine points at home tonight.

Eight of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  So, this team has simply been unfortunate in close games.  The Hornets will be desperate to put an end to their seven-game losing streak coming in, which has seen them fail to cover six times.  That has also driven this line up as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

Plays against road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly not off to the start they wanted this season after making the playoffs last year.  However, they are nowhere near as bad as their 4-11 record would indicate, and as a result they are showing excellent value tonight as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Six of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less.  So, with a little better fortune in close games, this team would be a .500 squad.  They have lost six in a row coming in so the betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has created some nice line value here.  Three of their last four losses have been by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets come into this game not only highly motivated to put an end to their six-game skid, but also to get revenge on the Blazers.  They lost to Portland on the road 100-102 back on November 11th.  They were 6.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch.  That fact alone shows you that there is a ton of value in backing the Hornets.

The Blazers are clearly overvalued right now due to going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them tonight, driving this line up higher than it should be.  The Blazers are only 3-2 on the road this season with their three wins coming against Denver, Boston and Philadelphia.

Plays on home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 105-61 (63.3%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams that have hit a rough patch ATS while fading teams that have been covering machines ATS.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8

At 0-14 on the season, the Philadelphia 76ers are desperate for their first victory.  That 0-14 record also has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them, which has created some excellent line value for us to pounce on tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Philadelphia has been much more competitive in its last two games and should put up a good fight tonight as well.  It covered in an 83-91 loss at New York as an 11-point underdog, then came back with a cover in a 104-114 home loss to Portland as a 13-point dog.

Brooklyn (5-8) isn't worthy of laying 8 points to any team on the road.  Its five wins this season have come against Detroit, Oklahoma City (twice), New York and Orlando.  It has lost six of its last seven games overall coming into this one with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Nets are just 2-5 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 5.7 points per game.

Philadelphia played Brooklyn very tough last year in the final three meetings of the season.  It went a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Nets with all three being decided by 6 points or less.  It won 121-120 as a 5.5-point home dog, lost 108-102 as a 9-point road dog, and lost 101-105 as an 11-point home dog.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  I would argue that the 76ers have more talent than last year, while the Nets have less.

The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams.  Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year.  They have opened 7-5 this season and will be a contender to reach the Western Conference playoffs with all of the talent they have on board.

Antony Davis (26.3 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is an MVP candidate already this year.  Jrue Holiday (15.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) have returned healthy this season and made a huge difference.  Tyreke Evans (15.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 6.2 apg) is the do-it-all guy for this team.

I know that the Pelicans are banged up right now as Omer Asik (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg) is questionable to play tonight, while Eric Gordon (9.5 ppg) is out indefinitely.  But as long as they have their four aforementioned studs healthy, I'm not worried one bit.

Sacramento (8-5) has been one of the biggest surprises in the West this season, but unlike New Orleans, its fast start is unlikely to continue.  I believe the Kings are still a pretender in the West and getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point underdogs.

The Kings have much more worrisome injury concerns than the Pelicans do right now.  Rudy Gay (21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Darren Collison (15.9 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Ramon Sessions (5.2 ppg) are all questionable to play tonight.  Gay is their second-leading scorer, while Collison and Sessions are the 1-2 on this team at the point guard position to run the offense.  Even if all three play, I STILL love New Orleans as only a 3-point home favorite in this one.

The Pelicans are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Dallas way back in their second game of the season.  The Pelicans are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game at home this year.  The Kings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games overall.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5

The Toronto Raptors have clearly been one of the best teams in the league this season.  They have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, so they have been a covering machine thus far.  While they will continue to be a good bet for much of the season, I believe they are overvalued here tonight.

Phoenix is a team that barely missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games last year in a stacked Western Conference.  It was an underrated squad last year, and that continues to be the case in 2014.  It has opened 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread against a much tougher schedule than Toronto.

A big reason I'm fading the Raptors tonight is because this is a letdown spot for them.  They are coming off a huge 110-93 win at Cleveland on Saturday, which was the favorite to win the NBA Finals coming into the season.  The Raptors won't come back with the same kind of effort they played with in that game.

The Suns have feasted on Eastern Conference opponents this season.  They have gone 5-1 against them, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.  All four of those have come in their last four games as they will conclude a six-game road trip with tonight's game and want to finish it off a winner.

Phoenix swept the season series with Toronto last season.  It won 106-97 at home as a 3.5-point favorite.  It then went on the road and beat the Raptors 121-113 as a 4-point underdog in the second meetings.  The Suns should not be the underdog in this first meeting of 2013-14 tonight.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, in November games are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  The Suns are 51-22 ATS in their last 73 vs. teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game. 

Phoenix is 11-2 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Phoenix is 32-15-1 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Suns are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly hurting without Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  They have opened the season 3-11 and will struggle to make the playoffs after this poor start.  The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with this team now.

That poor public perception has really created a lot of line value for us to back the Thunder today.  They have lost five in a row coming in, but a closer look at their losses shows that they have actually been very competitive despite playing a very difficult schedule this season.

The Thunder are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, but only one of those seven losses has come by more than seven points.  So, they have been very close, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump.

Oklahoma City has been much more competitive at home than on the road.  It is 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS at home this season.  It has beaten Denver (102-91) and Sacramento (101-93), while all four of its losses to Memphis (89-91), Detroit (89-96), Houston (65-69) and Brooklyn (92-94) have come by seven points or fewer.  So, it has yet to lose at home by this margin.

Golden State, on the other hand, is way overvalued right now due to its 9-2 start to the season.  It has won four straight coming in, but all four of those were against weak opponents in Brooklyn, Charlotte, LA Lakers and Utah.  I have no doubt that the Warriors are feeling overconfident due to this fast start, and they won't bring the intensity it takes to put away the Thunder by this margin on the road.

Oklahoma City is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Thunder are 61-31 ATS in their last 92 off an upset loss as a favorite.  Oklahoma City is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 following a close loss by 3 points or less.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* Cavaliers/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5

Off back-to-back losses, including a painful 90-92 loss to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be very hungry for a victory Friday.  I look for them to roll over the Washington Wizards in blowout fashion as they take their frustration out on John Wall and company.

I have no doubt that Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league despite its mediocre 5-5 start.  It ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  It will be up at No. 1 in the league in this category by season's end.

I am also certainly that Washington is overvalued in the early going thanks to making the playoffs last year and its 7-3 start this season.  However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

Their three losses have come to the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, which are the three best teams that they have faced.  Their seven wins have come against the likes of the Magic (twice), Bucks, Knicks, Pacers (twice) and Pistons.  They have yet to beat a team of any significance.

The road team won all four meetings between these teams last year, and the Cavaliers have actually won five of their last seven meetings with the Wizards.  What is most impressive about that is the fact that they didn't have Lebron James OR Kevin Love for any of those seven games.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to Washington.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 92-90 win at Cleveland on ESPN Wednesday night, and they aren't going to be able to muster up the kind of focus it's going to take to beat Minnesota by more than 8 points to cover this spread.

Also, look for Greg Popovich to limit his star players' minutes knowing that the Spurs have a game on deck tomorrow against the Nets.  The Spurs don't have much of a bench as it is as they are playing without Tiago Splitter and Patrick Mills, while both Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are questionable.

Yes, the Timberwolves are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and they are off to a poor 3-7 start this season.  They are also battling injuries of their own right now.  Ricky Rubio (ankle), Nikola Pekovic (wrist) and Thaddeus Young (personal) are all expected to be unavailable Friday.

However, scheduling has been the biggest reason for the Timberwolves' poor start.  They have played seven of their first 10 games on the road.  In their three home games, they have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with their only loss coming to the Bulls (105-106) by a single point.

Despite being without Rubio, Young and Pekovic, the Timberwolves put together their most impressive performance of the season in a 115-99 win over the Knicks on Wednesday.  Kevin Martin scored 37 points, Mo Williams had 14 points and 13 assists, and Shabazz Muhammad added 17 points and eight boards in the win.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can survive with some injuries.

Minnesota has played San Antonio very tough recently.  In fact, it is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It won 110-91 as a 7.5-point home dog late last year, 108-95 on the road in 2013, and 107-83 at home in 2013 as well.  It has covered the spread in all four games it was a dog of 7.5 points or more against the Spurs during this stretch.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +9

The Toronto Raptors are a team that I have a lot of respect for and one that I have backed quite a bit in the early going.  However, after a 9-2 start straight up accompanied by a 7-4 ATS mark, this team is now overvalued and worth fading tonight.

The biggest reason I'm going to fade the Raptors tonight is because this is an extremely difficult spot for them emotionally.  They are coming off a 96-92 home win over the top team in the West in Memphis, and now they will be looking ahead to Saturday's game at Cleveland against Lebron James and company.  So, this is a letdown AND lookahead spot for the Raptors.

They won't be giving the kind of attention to the Bucks that they deserve.  Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  It has gone 7-5 straight up and a sensational 9-3 ATS in its 12 games this season.

Even the losses have been competitive as the Bucks have only lost twice all season by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to fail to cover the spread Friday, and I just don't see it happening.  They have won five of their last six, which includes road wins at Miami (91-84) and Brooklyn (122-118).

What I like about this Bucks team is that they defend, and they get that from their head coach Jason Kidd.  They have extraordinary length at almost all positions, and they are giving up just 96.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting.  They rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Rockets, Warriors and Spurs have been better.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA again this season.  They made the playoffs last year and are well on their way to challenging for the top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.

The Raptors returned almost all of their scoring from last year, and they are off to an 8-2 start this season, which is good for 1st place in the East thus far.  Their only two losses have come against the Heat and Bulls.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game.

While the Raptors aren't getting much credit for their 8-2 start, the Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 10-1 start this season that has them in first place in the West.  This team isn't as good as their record as they have simply been fortunate in close games.

Seven of their 10 wins have come by single-digits this season.  They are in a massive letdown spot here off their impressive 119-93 home win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, which was for first place in the West.  They won't be bringing the kind of intensity it takes to beat the hungry Raptors tonight.

Toronto actually swept the season series with Memphis last year in two blowout victories.  It won 103-87 as a 6-point road underdog to the Grizzlies on November 13th, and it came back and put a 99-86 beat down on the Grizzlies as a 1-point home underdog in the rematch on March 14th.

Memphis is 2-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-27 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -2.5

Lebron James hasn't forgotten the sting of losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals last season.  I look for him to play with an extra edge tonight to help his new Cleveland Cavaliers knock off the defending champs at home going away.

The Cavaliers had really been playing very well prior to their 97-106 loss to Denver on Monday.  They had won four in a row, including a 127-94 victory over Atlanta the game prior.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game during that loss to the Nuggets.

The Spurs haven't resembled the defending champs at all.  They have already lost four games this season, including losses to the Kings, Suns, Pelicans and Rockets (81-98).  They have gone just 4-6 ATS in all games and have been overvalued all season.  They are again tonight only catching 2.5 points to the Cavaliers when it should be more.

One of the reasons the Spurs haven't been up to their level of play from last year is that they have been playing without starting center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli.  They remain without this underrated trio tonight against Cleveland.

The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.   The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Wednesday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet Cleveland Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way undervalued right now due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have gone 5-3 straight up just 1-7 ATS, making the betting public gun-shy to back them.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back them as small home favorites over the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers come in well-rested as this will be just their second game in the past seven days.  All this extra time off has allowed them to correct their mistakes in practice, and they should be putting forth great efforts going forward.

Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the season on Saturday.  It beat a very good Phoenix team 120-107 as just a 7-point favorite.  It shot 52.9% from the field and held the Suns to 38.4% shooting.  It has four days off before that game, so the extra practice time certainly paid off, and it should again tonight.

Chicago just can't catch a break with Derrick Rose.  He is now dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss their last game against Indiana.  The Bulls lost to the Pacers 90-99 despite being 8.5-point favorites in that game.  Rose is doubtful to play tonight as well, so look for this Chicago offense to struggle once again without him.

The Clippers have dominated the Bulls the past two seasons.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago, winning those four games by an average of a ridiculous 20.5 points per game.  They won 112-95 on the road and 121-82 at home against the Bulls int heir two meetings last year.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Stan Van Gundy, the new head coach in Detroit, certainly wants to stick it to his former team in Orlando.  The Pistons will be playing hard for their coach, and they'll be happy to return home from a grueling four-game road trip to take in the Magic tonight.

The Pistons grew up in that road trip as they played very competitively against some of the league's elite teams.  They went just 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS as all four games were competitive.  The lost 91-102 at Chicago, 103-107 at Washington, 88-95 at Memphis, and beat Oklahoma City 96-89.

The Orlando Magic are an improved team this season, but they are still just 4-7 and come into this game way overvalued against the more talented Pistons.  The Magic are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and that's why oddsmakers aren't giving them as many points as they should be.  The betting public has taken notice of this 6-0 ATS streak, and now it's time to fade the overvalued Magic.

As poor as Orlando has been on the road over the past two years, there's no way it should only be catching four points here.  Indeed, the Magic are an NBA-worst 6-42 on the road since the start of last season.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are a very tired team right now.  They have played four of their last five games on the road, and this will be their 5th game in 7 days.  They had games on the 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th of November.  They simply have nothing left in the tank right now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team won all three meetings last year in blowout fashion by 14 points or more.  The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings as well.  Detroit is 30-11 in its last 41 home meetings with Orlando. 

The Magic are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Orlando is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game.  The Magic are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons struggled in the early going and are just 3-6 on the season.  That's why they are so undervalued right now because of this slow start, but they have been playing much better since an 0-3 start.

Indeed, the Pistons have won three of their last six games overall, including a 96-89 road win at Oklahoma City last night.  They lost to Utah (96-97) at home, and lost to Chicago (91-102) and Washington (103-107) both on the road.  They have been very competitive in each of their last six games, and their biggest loss all season has come by 12 points.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.  They are 8-1 on the season, but nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.  Indeed, all eight of their wins have come by 12 points or less, including six by 8 points or fewer.

The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall showing how overvalued they have been of late.  They only beat Oklahoma City 91-89 as a 7-point favorite, lost to Milwaukee 92-93 as a 4.5-point favorite, beat the Lakers 107-102 as a 10-point favorite, and beat the Kings 111-110 as a 5-point favorite in their last four games, respectively. 

I would argue that the Pistons are as good or better than all four of those teams that played Memphis down to the wire.  The Grizzlies came from way behind to beat the Kings on Thursday, and got the game-winner with only a few ticks remaining from Courtney Lee.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here as well off such an emotional comeback win.

Detroit is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games after three straight games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have won four of their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.

What I like most about the Magic is that they don't get blown out too often.  They have only lost by double-digits twice all season, and those game way back early in the year in their 1st and 3rd games of the season against the Pelicans and Raptors, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.

Orlando has really been stockpiling talent, and it's starting to pay off.  Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), Evan Fournier (17.9 ppg) and Tobias Harris (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are really having solid seasons.  These aren't your household names, but this trio ranks right up there with the very best in the league.

The Wizards are 6-2 this season, but I believe they are a big overvalued here because of it.  Their six wins have come against the likes of Orlando (105-98), Milwaukee, New York, Indiana (twice) and Detroit.  All five of those teams that their six wins have come against currently have losing records on the season.  Only two of their twins have come by more than 7 points this year.

Sure, the Wizards did beat the Magic earlier this season by 7 points, but that just puts the Magic in revenge mode heading into this one.  That should help them overcome the tough 4 games in 5 nights situation, which is the reason this line is as high as it is.  They will use that motivation to help them push through possibly having tired legs, though fatigue isn't as big of a factor this early in the year.

Washington is 12-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Washington is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Despite losses in each of their last two games and a 1-2 start to the season, I still believe the New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have lost their last two games against Western Conference powers Dallas and Memphis, but now they get a weak Eastern Conference team at home to get right tonight.

The Pelicans opened with a weak team from the East in Orlando and swiftly beat the Magic 101-84.  The problem for the Pelicans has been on offense, where they are only shooting 39.1% on the season.  Obviously, they aren't going to shoot this badly all season with the talented guys they have in the likes of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The biggest reason that the Pelicans are a much better team this year is the addition of Omer Asik at center, who combines with Davis to clean up the glass and alter shots.  Davis is averaging 13.3 boards and Asik is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game.  The Pelicans are 3rd in the league in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.8 percent of their misses.  These two will help control the focal point of the Charlotte offense, which is Al Jefferson inside.

I believe the Hornets came into the season way overvalued after making the playoffs last year.  That has shown as they have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS with their only victory coming against Milwaukee by a final of 108-106 in overtime at home.  Their only cover this season came by a half-point last time out at New York in a 93-96 loss.  Simply put, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won six of their last eight meetings with the Bobcats/Hornets franchise.  In fact, Charlotte has only averaged 86.2 points and has topped 100 only once while going 2-8 all-time at New Orleans.

Charlotte is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 versus poor 3-point shooting teams that make 30% or less of their attempts.  The Hornets are 20-38 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.  Charlotte is 32-61 ATS in its last 93 against Southwest division opponents.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Heat Battle of Unbeatens on Miami -1

The Miami Heat are showing tremendous value as a small home favorites over the Houston Rockets this season.  The Heat are on a mission to prove that they don't need Lebron James, and they are off to a good start by going 3-0 with wins over the likes of the Wizards, 76ers and Raptors.

Houston is off to a perfect 4-0 start itself that has it overvalued here.  The Rockets couldn't have faced a much softer schedule to this point as their four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers.  They haven't proven anything yet against that schedule.

This is a very tough spot for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning at Philadelphia 104-93 last night.  Plus, they could be caught looking ahead to their game against the defending champion Spurs on Thursday night.

Miami has won eight of its last nine meetings with Houston.  The Heat have won 14 of their last 18 home meetings with the Rockets as well.  Getting them as a small home favorite here in this tough spot for the Rockets is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +10

I fully expect the Sacramento Kings to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  They didn't show that in their opener as they lost by 18 to Golden State and shot just 30.8% from the floor while committing 26 turnovers.

The Kings cleaned up their play last time out and beat Portland 103-94 as a 4.5-point underdog.  They still only shot 42% from the floor, but their defense held the Blazers to just 41% shooting.  They also committed just 10 turnovers as they put an emphasis on taking care of the ball.

This Kings team has plenty of talent to be competitive.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most underrated centers in the league as he's a 20 & 10 guy almost every night.  Rudy Gay, who scored 40 points against the Blazers, is still one of the best scorers in the game.

Darren Collison will be taking this game personal as he gets a chance to go against his former team.  He has been dynamite in two games this season.  He had 17 points, eight boards, eight assists and three steals in the win over the Blazers.  He is a solid point guard who, like Cousins, is under-appreciated.

I really have not been impressed with the Clippers in their first two games.  Their sloppy played has carried over from a 2-6 preseason.  Sure, they are 2-0 in the regular season, but they are fortunate to be unbeaten to this point and should not be laying double-digits to the Kings tonight.

The Clippers beat the Thunder 93-90 at home as a 13-point favorite.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and shouldn't have been able to hang around, but they did.  The Clippers also beat the Lakers 118-111 as 11.5-point favorites in a game that was tied with under two minutes to go.  The Lakers are arguably the least-talented team in the league this year.

Sacramento has played Los Angeles very tough on the road in recent years.  The Kings have only lost once to the Clippers by more than nine points in the past six meetings.  Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons are 0-2 right now and undervalued as a result.  They played two tough road games against Western Conference opponents in Denver and Minnesota and were competitive in each.  Now, they head back to Detroit for the start of a four-game home stand against Brooklyn.

The Pistons went 5-2 in the preseason and are clearly going to be improved this season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  He has preached defense, and his team has responded in allowing an average of 93 points per game through their first two games against the offensive-minded Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The problem for the Pistons has been their offense, which is only averaging 85 points per game on a woeful 39.4% shooting.  A big contributing factor to that is the fact that they have been without their best scoring big man in Greg Monroe for the first two games as he has served a two-game suspension.  Monroe returns tonight and will give the Pistons a big lift on the offensive end.

Detroit will not only be better offensively because of Monroe's return, but also because it will be up against a Nets team that allowed 121 points and 55.7% shooting in a 16-point loss to the Celtics in their opener.  This Brooklyn team is a mess right now with the loss of Paul Pierce in the offseason and the injury to center Brook Lopez, who will miss this game with a foot injury.

The Pistons have a massive frontcourt featuring Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith.  Without Lopez, this trio should dominate not only on the offensive end, but on the glass on both ends of the floor.  The Nets are relying on Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic in their frontcourt.  This is a complete mismatch in Detroit's favor.

Detroit won three out of four meetings with Brooklyn last year, including 111-95 and 103-99 victories at home.  The Pistons also won on the road 109-97 on November 24th.  The Pistons scored 103-plus points in all four meetings with the Nets last season, and the Nets are worse off this year than they were last year, while the Pistons are improved.  The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +6

After an awful performance against the Golden State Warriors in their opener, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings tonight.  That's why they are showing such great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Look for the Kings to come out very determined after getting embarrassed by the Warriors.  They shot just 30.8% from the field and committed a ridiculous 26 turnovers.  Things couldn't have gone worse in their 18-point loss.  Obviously, they aren't going to play that poorly again tonight.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants everything to do with the Blazers after their 106-89 home win over an Oklahoma City team that was playing without Kevin Durant.  That game didn't become a blowout until the 4th quarter as the Thunder actually had a 77-75 lead until the final period, where the Blazers outscored them 31-12.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Kings and Blazers.  Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages year in and year out, and any time you can get the Kings as this big of a home dog you should usually take advantage, and we will tonight.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - off a home win against a division rival, on Friday nights are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 home games after scoring 85 points or less.  The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Sacramento is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Friday.