Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Spurs/Grizzlies NBA Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following an embarrassing defeat last night. Playing without Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, the Miami Heat went into San Antonio and stole a 98-96 victory.

You can bet that Gregg Popovich's team will come back hungry for a win tonight to make amends. That's especially the case considering the Spurs are just 1.5 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the West.

San Antonio has simply owned this series in recent meetings. The Spurs are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Grizzlies. Their only loss came in Memphis earlier this season on January 11th by a final of 101-98 (OT).

The Spurs are 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 13.5 points/game. Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic should not be catching double-digit points against the Houston Rockets tonight. This is an Orlando team that has been undervalued on the road all season, which is evident by its 21-15 ATS record away from home.

Houston has no business being favored by double-digits tonight considering it will likely be playing without leading scorer, James Harden (foot), who is listed as doubtful. It's also coming off a big 98-81 home victory over the Clippers, setting it up for a letdown spot tonight as it will have a hard time getting up for the Magic.

This play falls into a system that is 50-23 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.

Orlando is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Houston dating back to 2009. The road team has won six of the last 10 meetings outright. Take the Magic Monday.

15* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio -1

The San Antonio Spurs simply need this win more, and that's why I believe they'll get it. They lead the Oklahoma City Thunder by two games for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They also trail the Miami Heat by two games for the No. 1 overall seed.

Miami has actually already clinched home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. That's why I look for it to take nights off down the stretch and check out mentally, especially after having its 27-game winning streak just recently ended.

San Antonio wants revenge from three straight losses to Miami in this series. All three of those losses came on the road, including a 100-105 loss at Miami on November 29th in their first meeting this season. The Spurs nearly pulled off the upset despite playing without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobli in that contest.

The Spurs are 32-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points/game. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take San Antonio Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies will blow the Minnesota Timberwolves out of the building tonight. The Grizzlies would currently be the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today, trailing the Clippers by just 0.5 games for No. 4 and Denver by 1.0 games for No. 3.

With playoff seeding on the line, don't expect Memphis to take a night off the rest of the way. That's why I'm not concerned with them coming back tonight and facing Minnesota after a big 103-94 home win over Houston last night.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot following their shocking 101-93 upset home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. They won't even show up tonight off such a big win, especially considering how tired they are. Minnesota will be playing its 4th game in 5 days, and its 7th game in 10 days tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 58-26 (69%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

Memphis simply owns Minnesota. It has gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves dating back to 2010. All 10 victories have come by 4 points or more. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. That's why I look for them to roll to a blowout win over the Houston Rockets at home Friday.

Memphis is coming off two straight losses and three in its last four games overall. This is a team that is fighting to get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and it cannot afford to keep slipping in the standings. I look for it to put its foot down tonight.

The Grizzlies will also be hungry for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season. Memphis lost at Houston 96-121 in their last meeting this season on December 22nd.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings dating back to 2010. Memphis is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home meetings with Houston with all four victories coming by 5 points or more.

The Grizzlies are 28-8 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 14-21 on the road. Memphis is 24-6 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Better yet, the Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game. Take the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Miami Heat are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They just had their 27-game winning streak snapped against Chicago on Wednesday, and it's going to be hard to get motivated to play the game after that crushing defeat. I look for the Heat to suffer a hangover effect because of it.

New Orleans has proven to be giant killers here of late as it continues to play out its season. It has won three of its last four with victories over Boston (87-86) as a 4.5-point underdog, Memphis (90-83) as a 6-point dog, and Denver (110-86) as a 7-point dog. The Hornets will not be intimidated by the Heat tonight.

The home team has won each of the last six meetings dating back to 2009. In fact, New Orleans is 6-0 SU in its last 6 home meetings with Miami dating back to 2006. The Heat are 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Thursday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks have quietly gotten themselves in position to make one final run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have won three in a row, including Tuesday's victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, to get to within 1.5 games of the Los Angeles Lakers for 8th.

In fact, this team has been undervalued for a couple months now. That's evidenced by the fact that the Mavericks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games overall. This team clearly doesn't get the respect it deserves as it is playing as well as many of the top teams in the league right now.

Indiana comes in fatigued as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. That's a tough spot, especially considering it had to play the Houston Rockets last night, who play at a faster tempo than any other team in the league. The Pacers are in a letdown spot after their big win over the Rockets, and they're going to run out of gas tonight.

The Pacers are just an average team away from home this season, where they are 16-19 on the year. Dallas is a solid 21-14 at home this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series. The Pacers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Dallas is 82-52 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 24-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 37-54 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2.5

It's now or never for the Portland Trail Blazers. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They believe they still have a shot, which is huge.

Portland checks in well-rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday in a loss at Oklahoma City. It has won the previous two games impressively with road victories at Chicago (99-89) as a 6-point dog and at Atlanta (104-93) as a 7.5-point dog.

Brooklyn comes in overvalued due to having won three of its last four games with all four of them coming on the road. However, all three of those victories came against current non-playoff teams in Detroit, Phoenix and Dallas. They'll start feeling the effects of this long road trip in Portland tonight.

The Nets are 5-15 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game.

Portland is 4-0 SU in its last 4 home meetings with Brooklyn with wins by 13, 7, 10 and 9 points dating back to 2009, respectively. The Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Portland is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are simply catching too many points tonight to the Golden State Warriors. Golden State is in a huge letdown spot following its 109-103 home victory over the rival Los Angeles Lakers Monday night.

Sacramento comes in well-rested having last played on Sunday in a home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Given its tightly-contested recent history with Golden State, it's easy to see that 9 points is too much tonight.

In fact, each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less, and by a combined 13 points. Three of those meetings have happened this season with Sacramento winning 94-92 and 131-127 at home, and Golden State winning most recently 87-83 at home as a 10.5-point favorite on March 6th.

This play falls into a system that is 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11.5

I look for the Utah Jazz to make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight. Utah simply needs this one more as it trails the Los Angeles Lakers by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It won't be lacking any motivation tonight because of it.

Phoenix has nothing to play for, and it has already shown signs of packing it in over the past few weeks. The Suns have lost nine of their last 11 games overall with seven of those nine losses coming by 13 points or more.

Utah picked up a 107-91 home victory over Philadelphia on Monday to put to end a 4-game losing streak that came against playoff contenders in New York, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas with three of those games coming on the road. This team is certainly battle-tested after that tough stretch.

The Jazz have one their last two home meetings with the Suns by 13 and 12 points with finals of 94-81 and 100-88. Utah is 25-9 at home this season, while Phoenix is just 7-28 on the road, losing by nearly 10 points/game.

The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 24-3 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They lead both Utah and Dallas by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They realize they cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Lakers is the fact that they have lost three straight games heading into this one. They couldn't possibly be playing a better opponent to get back on track tonight considering how they have dominated Minnesota over the year.

Los Angeles has won 21 straight meetings with Minnesota heading into this contest. 19 of those 21 victories have come by 5 points or more, making for a 19-2 (90%) system backing the Lakers dating back to 2007.

Also note that the Timberwolves will be a tired team heading into this one. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is tough for a team that is already short-handed due to injury. Take the Lakers Wednesday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Philadelphia 76ers. I look for them to roll to a blowout victory because of it.

The Jazz trail the Los Angeles Lakers by two games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means they cannot afford to take nights off, which isn't the case for Philadelphia (27-42).

The 76ers are certainly fatigued right now as this will be their 4th road game in 6 days out on the West Coast. They played the Clippers, Nuggets and Kings before this contest with the Jazz.

Utah comes in undervalued due to its 4-game losing streak. It lost to the Knicks at home before going on the road and falling to Houston, San Antonio and Dallas. All four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and now the schedule finally lightens up as they welcome the 76ers.

The Jazz are 24-9 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 7-25 on the road. Utah is 12-3 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog this season. The Jazz are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia. The 76ers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the 76ers. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Denver Nuggets are way overvalued tonight as a 7-point road favorite over the New Orleans Hornets. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their franchise-record 15-game winning streak.

Denver has showed signs of being way overvalued in its last two games. It beat Philadelphia 101-100 at home on Thursday as a 15-point favorite, and topped Sacramento 101-95 at home on Saturday as an 11.5-point favorite.

The Nuggets are just 17-19 on the road this season, so they have no business even being favored in this one. That's especially the case considering New Orleans has been giant killers of late.

The Hornets have won their last two games with an 87-86 home victory over Boston as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday, and a 90-83 home victory over Memphis as a 6-point underdog on Friday. They have had two days' rest since that win over the Grizzlies, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Heat/Magic ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Orlando +13

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 26-game winning streak. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games overall with the only exception being a 109-77 home victory over the league-worst Charlotte Bobcats last night.

That means Miami will be a tired team heading into this contest with the Magic. In fact, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. Orlando comes in on two days' rest having last played on Friday in an 89-97 home loss to Oklahoma City as a 14-point underdog.

The Heat don't give the Magic the kind of respect they deserve. That's evident considering both meetings this season were decided by a combined 3 points. That includes a 97-96 home victory for Miami on March 6th as a 15-point favorite, and a 112-110 road victory for the Heat on December 31st as a 9.5-point favorite.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have been decided by 13 points. That 13-point victory was by Orlando at home in 2012. Miami's biggest margin of victory over the Magic during this span has been 12 points.

Miami hasn't won in Orlando by more than 10 points since a 105-90 road victory way back in 2004. That's a span of 17 meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system since 2004 backing the Magic. Take Orlando Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday night. This team goes under the radar as nobody is giving it a shot to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

Only the Blazers are giving themselves a shot. They only trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. This team is rising up to the occasion as it's coming off two of its biggest victories of the season.

Portland won 99-89 at Chicago as a 6-point underdog on March 21st, and 104-93 at Atlanta as a 7.5-point dog the next night on March 22nd. Those performances just show how the Blazers have taken their game to the next level, and that they are going to fight until the end to get in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City has proven to be overvalued here of late. It is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 104-114 home loss to Denver, an 89-90 road loss to Memphis, and a 97-89 road win at Orlando.

Portland wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma City, including two this season. It lost 87-83 at home to the Thunder on January 13th, and 92-106 on the road on November 2nd. There's no question that the Blazers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Blazers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends combine for a 16-1 system backing Portland. Take the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks Sunday. The Bucks come in highly motivated for a victory for a couple of different reasons.

First, Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Indiana heading into this one. That means it will be out for revenge from a 90-98 loss at Atlanta on March 20th less than a week ago. In fact, it has lost both meetings with the Hawks this season, so it will be playing with double revenge.

This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

Milwaukee is expected to get Ersan Ilyasova (back), one of the most underrated players in the league, back from injury today. He has missed the past three games, and his return will give the team a big boost at home today.

The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Milwaukee Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls represent my strongest release of the entire 2012-13 season in the Eastern Conference Saturday night. I look for the Bulls to blow the Indiana Pacers out of the building tonight folks.

Chicago comes in highly motivated to bounce back from back-to-back losses to Denver and Portland. In fact, it has lost four of its last five games overall. This is one of the most resilient teams in the league under head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they have lost all three meetings with Indiana this season. There's no question they'll be fired up for revenge to avoid the season sweep, while the Pacers will have a hard time getting motivated after beating Chicago three times already this year.

While Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days, Chicago comes in on one days' rest and playing just its 3rd game in 8 days. I'll gladly side with the more motivated, more rested Bulls in this one folks.

This play falls into a system that is 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival.

Thibodeau is 46-28 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 31-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Chicago Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off arguably their biggest victory of the season with a 90-89 (OT) home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on a last-second tip-in by Marc Gasol.

Off such a big win, the Grizzlies will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team with a losing record like the New Orleans Hornets Friday. Memphis will also be very tired as this will be its 7th game in 11 days, and it's coming off an OT game.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. New Orleans has played Memphis tough as all three meetings were decided by 11 points or less. In fact, the Hornets went on the road and beat the Grizzlies 91-83 on January 27th as a 7.5-point underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 35-6 (85.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12.5

I look for the Houston Rockets to roll to victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home tonight. In fact, I fully expect the Rockets to be covering this spread by the end of the 1st quarter and to never look back folks.

Cleveland is in a huge letdown spot here. It had a chance to pull off the upset of the season and to put an end to Miami's 23-game winning streak on Thursday, but it blew a 27-point lead and lost 98-95. It will have a hard time recovering from such a tough defeat.

Houston won't have a hard time at all getting up for Cleveland knowing that it just about beat Miami the other night. Plus, the Rockets are fighting for their playoff lives and for playoff positioning, so they cannot afford to take nights off.

The Rockets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Cleveland dating back to 2005. Six of those wins came by double-digits, and five of them came by 15 points or more. Take Houston Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +15.5

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 24-game winning streak. That has been the case for the last half of this streak as they are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

Miami has had a way of playing to its competition during this streak. It has narrow home victories over Sacramento (double OT) and Orlando (97-96), as well as a fortunate road win over Cleveland (98-95) here recently.

The Heat had to come back from 27 points down to beat the Cavaliers on Thursday. They have came way back a few times during this streak, and now it's installed in their minds that they can come back from any deficit. That mentality allows them to be lazy for 3/4 of the game and try the other 1/4.

Detroit comes in undervalued due to its 9-game losing streak, which includes an embarrassing 82-119 loss to Brooklyn last time on out March 18th. The Pistons have had three days off since that defeat, and they'll come back not only motivated to bounce back from it, but to put an end to the Heat's winning streak.

This play falls into a system that is 68-28 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (DETROIT) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

The Pistons are 31-15 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 41-23 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the Heat. Roll with Miami Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +8.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The Warriors are back on track and playing great basketball right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this one outright.

Golden State has won four of its last five games overall, which includes a blowout home victory over New York (92-63), and back-to-back blowout road wins over Houston (108-78) and New Orleans (93-72). Yet, this team continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers.

San Antonio simply isn't the same team without Tony Parker. That's evident by the fact that it is just 1-4 ATS in its last four games overall, which includes a 106-136 home loss to Portland, and an ugly 83-107 road loss to Minnesota. Its 92-91 home win over Dallas as a 9.5-point favorite and its 119-113 home victory over Cleveland as a 15-point favorite weren't impressive, either.

This has been a very closely contested series of late with each of the last three meetings being decided by 7 points or less. That includes a 95-88 home victory by San Antonio on January 18th in their first meeting this season, and a 107-101 home win by Golden State on February 22nd in their second meeting of the year.

Golden State is 50-32 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 15-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take Golden State Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +5

The New Orleans Hornets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. Boston is in a terrible state of mind after letting a double-digit lead slip away Monday against Miami, eventually losing 103-105. It will certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat tonight.

New Orleans comes in hungry for a victory after losing each of its last four games heading into this one. Three of those losses came on the road. I like its chances of bouncing back against a Boston team that is just 12-20 SU & 12-18-2 ATS in all road games this year.

The Hornets simply have the Celtics' number in this series. In fact, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Boston despite being an underdog in all five contests. That includes a 97-78 victory in their most recent home meeting, and a 90-78 road victory in their first meeting this season on January 16th.

This play falls into a system that is 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against any team (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a close home loss by 3 points or less.

This play falls into another system that is 34-6 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Nets/Mavs NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas -4

The Dallas Mavericks have been in must-win mode for quite some time now. They continue to be considering they are 32-35 on the season, which has them just three games back of the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Dallas has been playing its best basketball of the season for a few months now while continuing to be undervalued due to its losing record. That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Once again, they are undervalued as only a 4-point favorite over the Nets tonight.

Dallas has won six of its last eight games overall. Its only losses during this stretch came 91-92 at San Antonio as a 9.5-point underdog, and 101-107 vs. Oklahoma City as a 5-point dog. Those are the two best teams in the Western Conference, and the Mavs lost to both by a combined 7 points.

The Mavs beat the Nets 98-90 on the road on March 1st in their first meeting this season. Brooklyn is just 4-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. The Nets are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.

Dallas is 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games. These two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are out for revenge from a 78-92 loss at Toronto on March 15th, which was less than a week ago. The Bobcats will want payback, while the Raptors will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they just throttled just a few days back.

I really like Charlotte's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home here of late. In fact, it has won its last two home games with a 100-74 victory over Boston as a 10.5-point underdog, and a 119-114 triumph over Washington as a 6.5-point dog.

Toronto has no business being favored on the road against anyone, especially with the way it is playing of late. It has lost eight of its last 11 games overall with its only victories coming against Phoenix, Cleveland and Charlotte during this span. The Raptors are only 9-24 on the road this year.

Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Raptors. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings in this series. Charlotte is 4-0 SU & in its last 4 home meetings with Toronto dating back to 2010. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +11

I'm siding with the Orlando Magic tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. Orlando is underrated due to its 18-49 record on the season, and that has been evident over the past few weeks as it has gone 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Those five covers include a win at New Orleans (105-102) as a 9-point dog, a home win over Philadelphia (99-91) as a 1-point dog, a 96-97 (OT) loss at Miami as a 15.5-point dog, a 104-117 loss at Oklahoma City as a 17.5-point dog, and a 109-115 loss at Milwaukee as a 9-point dog.

As you can see, the Magic have been very competitive against some of the top teams in the league. They did lost 86-115 at home to Indiana on March 8th less than two weeks ago during this stretch. However, that places the them in revenge mode tonight wanting payback for such an embarrassing defeat.

Indiana is in a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days after winning at Cleveland last night, which followed up losses to the Lakers and 76ers. The Pacers will also have a hard time getting motivated to beat a Magic team that they just throttled on March 9th.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is the fact that David West (back) missed last night's game and he's unlikely to return tonight against Orlando. So there's a good chance they'll be short-handed, which doesn't bode well for the fatigue they'll be feeling from playing 4 days in 5 days. West is their second-leading scorer (17.3 PPG) and rebounder (7.7 RPG).

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - good defensive team - allowing <=91 points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.

The Magic are 20-11 ATS as an underdog this season. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These six trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Orlando. Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -10

The Utah Jazz will blow the New York Knicks out of the building tonight for several reasons. The first of which is the fact that the Knicks are very short-handed right now, playing without Amare Stoudemire (out), Tyson Chandler (doubtful) and Carmelo Anthony (doubtful). There is a slight chance that Anthony plays tonight, but even if he does I have no doubt the Jazz will cover.

Making matters worse for the Knicks is the fact that they'll be running on fumes tonight. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for New York. Being short-handed makes handling this situation even tougher. Meanwhile, Utah will have a lot of energy to bring to the court considering this will only be its 2nd game in 5 days.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series considering the home team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings. Utah has serious revenge in mind as it will be looking for payback from an 84-113 loss at New York on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion considering it is 24-8 SU & 20-12 ATS at home this year.

The Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New York is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. New York is playing its worst basketball of the season due to these injuries, losing its last four games by 29, 23, 15 and 13 points. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +2.5

The Phoenix Suns should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Los Angeles Lakers. In fact, I fully expect the Suns to blow the Lakers out of the building in this one. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to winning its last two games despite having Kobe Bryant play just 12 minutes in the Indiana victory. He sat out last night's 113-102 home win over Sacramento.

Teams tend to actually play well without their superstar for a few games, but over time they certainly miss him. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Lakers simply do not have enough talent without Kobe to warrant being favored at Phoenix. That's especially the case considering how tired it is.

The Lakers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. That is the toughest possible situation in the NBA, and that's what they're up against tonight. They'll be up against a Phoenix team that absolutely hates them and always seems to play them tough.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last few years. In fact, the home team has won each of the last eight meetings dating back to 2011. Phoenix is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 home meetings with Los Angeles despite being an underdog each time. It won by finals of 92-86, 125-105 and 102-90. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Lakers are 17-38 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 14-36-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a ATS win. The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Washington Wizards should not be favored on the road by 6.5 points over any team in the league. Not even the Charlotte Bobcats. I'll gladly fade the 23-42 Wizards, who are just 5-25 on the road this season.

Sure, the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, but as a result the betting public is almost completely off of them. That forces oddsmakers to inflate their lines, which should lead to some great betting opportunities the rest of the way.

Charlotte wants revenge from an 87-104 loss at Washington on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting it considering the Wizards are extremely tired right now. This will be the 5th game in 7 days for Washington.

This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Washington is 4-16 ATS in road games after scoring 120 points or more since 1996. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Roll with Charlotte Monday.

20* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued for several reasons heading into this game with the Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles has won 10 of its last 13 games overall for one, and for two it is coming off a 99-93 victory at Indiana in a game where Kobe Bryant played just 12 minutes.

Because of this recent run, and that upset of the Pacers, the Lakers have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. The books are asking them to win by double-digits against a pesky Sacramento Kings team tonight to beat us, and I'm just not buying it.

Bryant is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury, and the Lakers clearly aren't as good without him. They can be for one game, but not for two or more. DeMarcus Cousins is questionable for Sacramento, but I like the Kings to cover no matter whether or not he plays. Cousins sat out a 121-79 home victory over Chicago on March 13th last time out, so the Kings have proven they can play without him. That also means that Sacramento comes in on three days' rest having last played on Wednesday.

The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Sacramento is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Los Angeles. The Lakers always have a way of bringing out the best in the Kings, while Los Angeles always has a way of playing down to its competition. The Lakers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Houston Rockets. In fact, they have lost the first three meetings of the season to Houston, which clearly doesn't sit will with them. At the same time, the Rockets are going to have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Warriors for a 4th time this year.

I'll gladly back the team that's playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. That's especially the case for the Warriors considering all three of their losses to Houston this year have come since February 5th, so in just 1.5 month's time. These losses are fresh in their mind and will be the fuel to the fire that they take to the court tonight.

Golden State is 25-12 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Golden State is coming off a bad home loss to Chicago, so that only has it further motivated tonight. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +8

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 21-game winning streak. The Toronto Raptors are fully capable of putting an end to it today, but I'm taking the points for some added insurance.

Miami has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that is simply cannot live up to with any consistency because of this streak. It has gone 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games overall during this streak. It has to get the opposing team's best shot each time it takes the court, which will wear on a team over time.

Toronto is a solid 17-16 at home this season. It will certainly be out for revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including a 116-123 (OT) road loss. In fact, the Raptors have now lost 10 straight meetings to the Heat, adding fuel to the fire.

Toronto is 17-6 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games. Roll with the Raptors Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to blow the Memphis Grizzlies out of the building tonight. This is an excellent spot to back the Jazz, who should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Grizzlies. Memphis is in an extremely tough spot tonight.

The Grizzlies are coming off an 80-87 loss at Denver last night. That means this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for Memphis. It certainly showed signs of wearing down last night as it blew a 4th quarter lead.

After losing five of its last six coming into this game, the Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. All five of those losses came on the road with four coming against current playoff teams. Utah will be the fresher team as it comes in on two days' rest. The Jazz are 23-8 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (UTAH) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6

I've been fading the Miami Heat with a ton of success during their current 20-game winning streak. The more games they add onto this streak, the higher the expectations are from the betting public and oddsmakers. This has created excellent line value for their opponents.

There's no question that Miami is going to get everyone's best shot because they are the defending champs, and because of this streak. I believe Milwaukee's best shot is good enough to beat the Heat tonight.

In fact, Milwaukee has played Miami very tough this season. The home team has won each meeting with Miami prevailing 113-106 at home on November 21st, and Milwaukee winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. Off two straight losses, the Bucks are more hungry than every for a victory tonight.

The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Heat. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has actually won four of its last six meetings with Miami outright. The Heat are 13-28 ATS in road games after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games since 1996. Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* Mavs/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued as an 8-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the Mavericks in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'll only take the points for some added insurance.

San Antonio is clearly having problems without Tony Parker. That's evidence by the fact that it has lost two out of its last three in blowout fashion to non-playoff teams in Portland (106-136) and Minnesota (83-107). Now, both Tim Duncan (knee) and Kawhi Leonard (ankle) are both questionable heading into this contest with the Mavs.

Don't look now, but Dallas is just 2.5 game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It has won four straight games coming into this contest with the Spurs, including three road victories. Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season right now, but somehow it continues to getting overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public. It is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have already lost twice to San Antonio this season. In fact, they have lost four straight in this series dating back to last year. There's no question that they want revenge tonight folks and I fully expect them to get it against the hobbled Spurs.

Dallas is 51-26 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 23-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off back-to-back embarrassing road losses to Oklahoma City (79-91) and to Charlotte (74-100). I look for the Celtics to put forth one of their best efforts of the season when they host the Toronto Raptors Wednesday.

Paul Pierce did not play against the Bobcats last night as Doc Rivers decided to give him a day off for rest. Pierce will return tonight and will give the team a big lift. Meanwhile, the Raptors are expected to be without their best player in Rudy Gay (back) as he is listed as doubtful with a back injury.

Boston is 22-9 at home this season, while Toronto is just 9-23 on the road. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being a Boston road victory (99-95) in their most recent meeting on February 6th.

The Celtics have won nine straight home meetings with the Raptors all by 6 points or more. This is a perfect 9-0 system backing Boston which dates back to the 2008 season. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +9

The Miami Heat are way overvalued as a 9-point road favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have won 19 straight games, which has the betting public all over them. As a result, their numbers are going to be inflated until they lose a game again. That could very easily happen tonight.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams since February 23rd, so they are very familiar with one another. Miami won both meetings with a 114-90 road victory on the 23rd, and a 102-93 home win on March 8th. There's no question that the 76ers want revenge, while the Heat will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they have beaten twice already within the last month.

Philadelphia is playing much better of late as it beat Brooklyn 106-97 at home on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog. While the 76ers have had a day of rest to get ready for Miami, the Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Hawks last night.

The 76ers are 16-5 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +10

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 18-game winning streak heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks. That has been evident in recent games during this streak as they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves in the eyes of the public and thus the oddsmakers.

Off a huge win over Indiana by a final of 105-91 on Sunday, the Heat are in a big letdown spot here. They had lost the previous two meetings this season with Indiana, so they wanted that one pretty badly. They won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to beat a solid Atlanta team by double-digits tonight.

Meanwhile, the Hawks not only come in motivated to put an end to Miami's winning streak, they also want to bounce back following losses in five of their last six games overall with four coming to playoff contenders. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so they'll certainly be ready to go. Plus, Atlanta wants revenge from two earlier losses to Miami this season by finals of 92-101 on December 10th and 90-103 on February 20th after blowing a fourth quarter lead.

Miami is 5-17 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Atlanta is 15-5 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It is actually coming back to win in this spot 92.9 to 91.4 on average. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

This is an excellent spot to fade the Brooklyn Nets who are overvalued due to winning three of their last four games overall. Two of those victories came against the Wizards and Bobcats, while the other was a victory over an Atlanta team that was clearly looking ahead to tonight's game against Miami.

My biggest reason for fading Brooklyn tonight is the fact that it is in the toughest situation it can be in. The Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight. They started showing signs of wearing down last night, falling 97-106 at Philadelphia despite coming in as a 6.5-point favorite.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. It continues to give max effort every night despite its record, which was evident in a 98-96 home victory over Portland on Sunday. The Hornets want revenge from a 97-101 home loss to Brooklyn on February 26th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting it considering how tired the Nets will be tonight.

The Hornets are 38-23 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 17-5 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Nets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit home underdog to the Boston Celtics tonight. Sure, Charlotte has gone 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games overall, but as a result the betting public is completely off of them. The books can't set this number high enough to get the public on them.

The Celtics come in overvalued due to going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are coming off a 79-91 loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday, which puts them in a hangover situation here. Off such a big loss to a great team, they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight.

Charlotte comes in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so it will be ready to go tonight. The Bobcats have proven they can play with the Celtics as each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 12 points or less with Charlotte winning three times. That includes a 94-91 home victory on February 11th in their most recent meeting this season. The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Boston is just 12-19 SU & 12-17-2 ATS in all road games this year. The Celtics are 8-19 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 2-12 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 11-24 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Bobcats Tuesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game with the Orlando Magic way overvalued due to their recent run. Los Angeles has won eight of its last ten games overall to get to 33-31 on the season and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. The betting public has flocked to them, providing us with ample value to back the Magic tonight.

Los Angeles has a way of always playing to its competition. Only three of its eight wins during this run have come against teams with winning records. The Lakers had to come from behind to beat both the Hornets and Raptors in two of their last three games. They are just 11-20 SU & 11-20 ATS on the road this season with just five of those wins coming by more than 7 points.

Orlando has gotten healthy here of late and it is playing better basketball because of it. It has won two of its last four games with a 105-102 victory at New Orleans, and a 99-9-1 triumph at home over Philadelphia. It also lost 96-97 at Miami as a 15.5-point underdog after a last-second layup by Lebron James.

This team is fully capable of playing with the Lakers, and it showed that by winning in Los Angeles 113-103 as a 13.5-point dog on December 2nd in their first meeting of the season. In fact, the Magic have now won four of their last five meetings with the Lakers, including three straight home meetings. The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Los Angeles is 1-12 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot by 7.7 points/game on average. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. Los Angeles is 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors have certainly been struggling of late. They have lost 12 of their last 17 games overall to fall to 35-29 on the season after a torrid start. However, their recent struggles are the reason I really believe this team is way undervalued right now as only a 3-point home favorite over New York.

Not only will the Warriors be motivated to get back on track, they'll also want payback from a 105-109 loss at New York on February 27th in their first meeting of the season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting revenge considering the Knicks have played their last three games without Carmelo Anthony (knee), and he's questionable to return tonight.

Also, Amare Stoudemire (knee) has been pronounced out for the next 4-6 weeks. Golden State is 20-9 at home this season, so it certainly has a solid home-court advantage this year. It won its last home meeting with New York by a final of 92-78.

The Knicks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings with New York. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 24-38 record, but arguably not team in the league has suffered as many close losses this season as Toronto.

The Lakers always have a way of playing down to their competition. That was the case again at New Orleans on Wednesday as they had to rally from 25 points down to come back and win 108-102. They closed that game on a 20-0 run to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. Off such an emotional win, look for the Lakers to suffer a letdown tonight against these Raptors.

Toronto has played Los Angeles very tough in recent meetings. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by 5 points or less, including a 108-103 home victory for Toronto on January 20th in their first meeting this season. Look for this game to go right down to the wire again tonight and to be decided by 7 or less either way. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Lakers are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs come into this game way overvalued due to their dominance in their first two games without star point guard Tony Parker. They beat lowly Detroit 114-75 and a banged up Chicago team 101-83 at home in their last two contests.

Teams can play without stars for a few games, but over time it starts to take its toll. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Spurs are up against a desperate Portland Trail Blazers team that is fighting to stay alive in the Western Conference playoff race at 28-32 on the season.

Portland has played well of late, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has gone 3-3 SU during this span, with all three losses coming by 6 points or less to the Lakers (107-111), Nuggets (109-111) and Grizzlies (85-91), which are three of the best teams in the West.

The Blazers have actually had the Spurs' number in recent years. Portland has won five of the last eight meetings in this series, including a 98-90 home victory as a 7-point underdog in their most recent meeting on December 13th. This team obviously matches up well with San Antonio, and it clearly isn't afraid of the Spurs.

This play falls into a system that is 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. The Blazers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Portland Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 16-game winning streak. I faded them with success in a 97-96 home victory over the Orlando Magic as a 15.5-point underdog on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade them again tonight as a double-digit favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers.

When you win so many games in a row it's only human nature to get a little bit lazy and think that it's easy. That's why the Heat nearly got upset by the Magic on Wednesday, and it's why I would not be surprised one bit to see Philadelphia upset them tonight.

The 76ers are in revenge mode following a 90-114 home loss to Miami on February 23rd just two weeks ago. The 76ers were really banged up at that point, but Thaddeus Young, who is arguably their best player, has returned since. Philly will be motivated for revenge and to put an end to their current 3-game skid.

This play falls into a system that is 67-28 (70.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Philadelphia is 53-30 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. The 76ers are 14-4 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 4-16 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5

This is the perfect opportunity to fade the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Sure, the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league against the spread all season, but I have no problem backing them tonight considering how tough a spot this is for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days tonight. After beating the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks n its last three contests, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder. Plus, they will be fatigued, so they won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to win this game by 15-plus points tonight.

Because Charlotte is the worst team in the league against the spread, that means the betting public will be fading them from here on out. That provides us with ample value to back the Bobcats at a great price tonight. They will be out for revenge for an embarrassing 69-114 loss at Oklahoma City in their first meeting of the season on November 26th as well.

This play falls into a system that is 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to be on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Also, Oklahoma City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 3 points or less. Take the Bobcats Friday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing solid value as a 4.5-point underdog tonight against the Denver Nuggets in a game that will go right down to the wire. I fully expect the Clippers to win this game outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.

Denver comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak. Four of those six wins came against teams with losing records. Now, the Nuggets will meet their match tonight in the Clippers. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 games overall with its only losses coming to San Antonio and Oklahoma City, which are top two teams in the Western Conference.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Clippers considering they have won six of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011, which includes a 2-1 road mark. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Denver. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as well.

This lay falls into a system that is 72-28 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (LA CLIPPERS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.

The Clippers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls should not be catching this many points against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. San Antonio played well in its first game without Tony Parker with a 114-75 home victory over the lowly Detroit Pistons. It is now overvalued heading into its second straight game without Parker because of it.

Parker has arguably been as valuable a player to his team as any other player in the league. A good team like the Bulls will be able to exploit the loss of Parker in this one.

Chicago is one of the most resilient teams in the league. Off a 92-97 loss at Indiana on Sunday, and looking for revenge from an 89-103 home loss to the Spurs in their first meeting of the season on February 11th, I look for a tremendous effort from the Bulls tonight.

Tom Thibodeau is 45-24 ATS off a loss as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 54-26-2 ATS in their last 82 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less this season. It is coming back to win 96.1 to 85.2 in this spot, or by an average of 10.9 points/game. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +16

The Orlando Magic are showing awesome value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat. I'll gladly back them at this price in a game that I look to be close throughout.

Miami is clearly overvalued due to its current 15-game winning streak coming in. It has created expectations for itself in the eyes of the betting public and thus oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to.

Orlando has played Miami tough in recent meetings. Each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13 points or less, and two of the last three went to overtime. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Magic dating back to 2010.

Miami is 4-15 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Magic are 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the Heat. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Indiana Pacers would have to beat the Boston Celtics by double-digits tonight to hand us a loss. I'll take my chances by backing these red-hot Celtics at a great price tonight.

Boston is 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games overall. This team remains underrated because it is playing without Rajon Rondo, but that loss has only brought this team closer together. The offense has really been clicking, averaging 102.4 points/game in their last five contests.

"That's the new us in a lot of ways, the ball finds the open guy," head coach Doc Rivers said. "It's simple, but it's hard to do unless you buy in. Everyone has bought in."

Sure, this is a back-to-back situation for Boston off a 109-101 win at Philadelphia last night, but it's really a non-factor despite clearly getting factored into this line. That's because it will still only be the 2nd game in 5 days for Boston as it last played on March 1st prior to that win over the 76ers. The Celtics won't be fatigued at all tonight.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Celtics. They have won three straight and eight of their last 11 meetings with the Pacers. The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Raptors/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with the Toronto Raptors highly motivated for a victory. They want to get back on track following a tough 5-game road trip in which they lost their final four games. I like their chances of getting back on track in a big way against this struggling Raptors squad.

Toronto has lost four straight while going 0-4 ATS in the process in its last four games. All four losses came by 6 points or more. It was playing without Rudy Gay (back) in a 114-122 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday, and he is questionable to return tonight. I like the Warriors to roll regardless of whether or not Gay plays. If he's out it would only be an added bonus.

Golden State has been dominant at home this season. It is 18-7 SU & 15-10 ATS in all home games this year. That's not good new for the Raptors, who are just 8-21 in all road games this year. The Warriors won the first meeting 114-102 with the Raptors on January 28th on the road. I like for them to put a similar beat down on Toronto at home this time around.

Golden State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Raptors are 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Golden State. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Golden State. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +10

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing arguably their best value of the season as a double-digit home underdog to the Miami Heat. They come in undervalued due to their current 5-game losing streak which has seen four of those losses come on the road. The other was a 99-100 home loss to Western Conference playoff contender, Golden State.

Miami comes in way overvalued due to its 14-game winning streak. They won No. 14 in a row Sunday at New York as they erased a double-digit halftime deficit. That was a huge win for the Heat as they had lost the previous two meetings with the Knicks this season. Now, playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, the Heat are in for a big letdown tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Timberwolves are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game with the Oklahoma City Thunder more motivated for a victory than they have been all season. They are out to prove that they can beat the defending Western Conference champs after a tough recent history against them. They have lost the first two meetings this season and DO NOT want to drop a 3rd today.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting its first win against OKC this season considering how well it has played inside the Staples Center. It is 23-6 SU & 18-11 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

The Thunder are very beatable on the road as they are 16-12 away from home this season. In fact, they have now lost three straight road games to Utah, Houston and Denver heading into this one. They have lost four of their last seven games overall with all three of their wins coming at home over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans.

Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponents this season. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These last three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the home team today. Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14.5

After losing two of their last three games in overtime, the San Antonio Spurs come into this game Friday with the Sacramento Kings highly motivated for a victory. That includes a 101-105 home loss to the Phoenix Suns last time out, and you can be sure that head coach Greg Popovich has made it clear to his players that it's was unacceptable.

Off a blowout road win at Orlando, the Kings are feeling good about themselves coming in. They'll quickly be put in their place by a Spurs team that will simply want this one more. I look for this spread to be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter tonight folks.

Sacramento is 6-26 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 10.1 points/game away from home this year. That's not good news for the Kings considering San Antonio is 22-3 at home this season. The Spurs are outscoring their opponents by an eye-opening 12.8 points/game at home this year.

The Spurs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Spurs are 36-16-3 ATS in their last 55 home games. San Antonio is 21-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the Spurs Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Grizzlies simply have the Miami Heat's number in recent meetings. That's because this is a terrible match-up for Miami as it does not have the post presence to go up against a team like Memphis, which runs its offense through the underrated duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. I look for both of these guys to have monster games tonight for the Grizzlies.

Memphis has won its two most recent meetings with Miami in blowout fashion. It won 104-86 at home on November 11th in their first meeting this season, and 97-82 on the road on April 6th in their final meeting of 2012. In fact, the Grizzlies have now won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series.

The Heat come into this game way overvalued due to their current 12-game winning streak. They have shown signs of being overvalued in their past two games with a come-from-behind 109-105 home victory over Cleveland as a 12-point favorite, and a 141-129 (2 OT) home win over Sacramento as a 15-point favorite.

Memphis has shown that it really does not miss Rudy Gay one bit. It has won eight straight games heading into this contest and it will continue playing with a chip on its shoulder against the defending champs tonight. I look for this one to go right down to the wire, and for the Grizzlies to likely pull off the upset.

The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Memphis is 11-1 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -7

The Chicago Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory as they host the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday night. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma City and Cleveland, and I look for them to bounce back in a big way tonight. Consider that the Bulls have only lost three games in a row once all season.

I really like Chicago's chances of getting a blowout win tonight considering it will be hosting struggling Philadelphia. The 76ers have lost six straight coming in, including an embarrassing 84-98 home loss to Orlando as an 8.5-point favorite last time out. This team just cannot seem to put the wheels back on the bus as they have completely fallen off.

Tom Thibodeau is one of the best head coaches in the business. He knows what buttons to push to get his players to respond following a poor performance or a string of them. Thibodeau is 44-24 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 29-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. He is also 22-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

Philadelphia is just 6-18 on the road this season. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season. They are coming back to win by 10.8 points/game in this spot. The Bulls are 53-26-2 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. They have lost two straight coming in with a 94-107 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers, and a 107-110 (OT) home defeat at the hands of the Boston Celtics. They will not lose three in a row tonight, especially considering this game is at home.

Utah is a sensational 21-7 SU & 17-11 ATS in all home games this season. It will also be out for revenge on the Hawks considering it has lost three straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. It lost the first meeting this season in Atlanta on January 11th by a final of 95-103.

The Hawks come in overvalued due to their 3-game winning streak coming in. In fact, they have won five of their last six overall while going 5-1 ATS in the process. A closer look at their schedule shows that they have been beating up on weaker teams. Their five wins have come against Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento, Milwaukee and Detroit. All five of those teams have losing records on the season.

The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in its previous game. The favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings in this series. Roll with the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -3

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won six of their last eight games overall to get within striking distance of Milwaukee for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Four of those six wins came against playoff contenders in the Pacers, Nuggets and Knicks (twice), so it's not like they've been beating up on cupcakes.

Cleveland is in one of the toughest spots the NBA has to offer tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. Off a big upset win at Chicago last night, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cavaliers. Plus, they are expected to be without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) as he is listed as doubtful with a knee injury.

The road team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls are the most resilient team in the league. Off an embarrassing 72-102 loss at Oklahoma City Sunday, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with a double-digit blowout victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home Tuesday night.

Cleveland comes in overvalued due to winning eight of its last 14 games overall. One of its losses came at Miami 105-109 last time out on Sunday, but it caught the Heat playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. And most of its eight wins have come against non-playoff teams.

Chicago simply owns Cleveland in this series. The Bulls have won 10 straight meetings in this series with each of their last nine wins coming by 9 points or more. This makes for a trends that is a perfect 9-0 since 2011 given tonight's spread of 6.5. Chicago's last four home meetings have resulted in wins by 26, 32, 13 and 9 points, respectively.

This play falls into a system that is 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more.

The Bulls are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. Tom Thibodeau is 63-37 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 44-23 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

Note - I realize this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 in most places. I still recommend a bet on the Bulls at anything less than -10

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +15.5

The Sacramento Kings are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday night. I know the Kings have lost five straight coming in, but they've played a brutal schedule that has included Memphis, Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta and New Orleans with four of those coming on the road. Sacramento is undervalued because of it.

Meanwhile, the Heat come in way overvalued due to their season-high 11-game winning streak. They started showing signs of being overvalued with a 109-105 come-from-behind home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

The biggest reason the Cavs were able to hang with the Heat was the fact that Miami came in very tired in that game. It was playing its 4th game in 5 days on Sunday, and now it will be playing its 5th game in 7 days against the Kings. That's one of the toughest situations for any team in the league, and I look for the Heat to come out sluggish once again because of it.

This play falls into a system that is 65-28 (69.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Sacramento comes in well-rested as this will be just its 4th game in 13 days. The Kings are 32-16 ATS in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days since 1996. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Kings Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Golden State Warriors +8

The Indiana Pacers come into this game way overvalued tonight. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with four straight blowout victories over Charlotte, New York, and Detroit twice all by 18 points or more. They have created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to tonight.

Golden State comes in undervalued after having lost six of its last nine games overall. It has been able to get back on track by winning its last three, including a 107-101 (OT) victory over San Antonio. The perception is that this team still isn't playing well, but that isn't the case right now.

This play falls into a system that is 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.

The Warriors beat the Pacers 103-92 at home in their first meeting of the season on December 1st. Indiana is 2-12 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 14-6 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Take the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been all season. They enter this game on a season-high seven game losing streak and must stop the bleeding now if they want to make a run at the playoffs. I fully expect them to put an end to this skid tonight with a home victory over the Boston Celtics.

Portland just got Wesley Mathews, one of the most underrated players in the league, back from an ankle injury last time out. The Blazers nearly upset the Lakers as a 9.5-point road underdog on Friday, eventually falling 107-111 due to 40 points from Kobe Bryant. Matthews almost single-handedly kept the Blazers in the game late as he nailed several 3-pointers down the stretch. He finished with 15 points and 4-for-7 from 3-point range.

Portland is 17-9 at home this season and it still has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. Boston has been playing well of late, but it comes in overvalued because of it. The Celtics are just 9-17 SU & 9-15-2 ATS in all road games this season.

Boston is 25-43 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 5-15 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 25-11 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -10

Off a season-high four straight losses, the New York Knicks head into this contest with the Philadelphia 76ers more motivated for a victory than they've been all year. I look for them to roll the 76ers at home tonight and emphatically put an end to this 4-game skid.

Philadelphia is the perfect team for New York to face to get back on track. The 76ers have also lost four straight, including a 90-114 home defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat last night. Fatigued from the back-to-back situation, and likely to suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs, I don't even expect the 76ers to show up tonight.

The Knicks are 19-8 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 6-17 on the road. New York has won two of three meetings with Philly this season with its wins coming by 16 and 22 points. I expect a similar blowout in this one tonight. The Knicks are 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series, including 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings.

The 76ers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest, including 2-10 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season. The Knicks are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games. Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Knicks Sunday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued as a 9.5-point favorite Friday over the Portland Trail Blazers. Asking them to win by double-digits is simply asking too much. I'll gladly take the value and back Portland in a game I feel it has an excellent chance to win outright.

The Blazers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season. That's because they have lost a season-high six straight games coming in while going 0-6 ATS in the process. This skid has them undervalued heading into this one.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are overvalued due to their 113-99 home victory over Boston on Wednesday in their first game back from the break. They were catching Boston in the second of a back-to-back situation as the Celtics were very tired after having played the Denver Nuggets the night before.

This play falls into a system that is 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, second half of the season.

Portland is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Portland. Bet the Blazers Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -1

The Dallas Mavericks are making a push toward the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They trail the Houston Rockets by 4.5 games for that spot and cannot afford to take nights off from here on out. They have been in this position for a while now, which is why they have been the best team to back over the past month or so.

That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are a ridiculous 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This team remains undervalued because of its poor record (24-29) on the season. However, this team is the definition of one that is better than its record would indicate as they have lost more close games than any other team in the league.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have lost each of their last two meetings with New Orleans, including a 99-96 (OT) loss at home in their lone meeting this season. New Orleans has not played well since returning from the break, losing 87-96 at home to Chicago, and 100-105 at Cleveland.

This play falls into a system that is 65-24 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (DALLAS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

This play falls into another system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Dallas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. These two trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Friday.

20* T'Wolves/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -13

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not lost four straight regular-season games since the first season that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook joined forces. The Thunder will try to avoid such a skid Friday night when they host a Minnesota Timberwolves team they have beaten in 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Oklahoma City (39-15) is enduring its longest slide of the season after falling 122-119 at Houston on Wednesday. The Thunder allowed former teammate James Harden to score 46 points and yielded 47.8 percent shooting. "As a team, we gave up too many points, 66 points in the second half is not us, it's not what we pride ourselves on," coach Scott Brooks said. "We have to regroup and figure it out defensively."

I look for the Thunder to come out highly motivated tonight to beat a Minnesota team that they have owned. Oklahoma City beat Minnesota 106-84 in their most recent meeting on January 9th as a 12.5-point favorite. I look for a similar beat down tonight with the Thunder being able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.

The Timberwolves are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Timberwolves are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Minnesota is 1-10 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots - 2nd half of the season since 1996. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Oklahoma City. Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8

The Golden State Warriors will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to their 6-game losing streak coming in. I like their chances of putting an end to the skid in blowout fashion considering they'll be hosting the lowly Phoenix Suns tonight.

Five of Golden State's six losses during this streak have come on the road and against some very good competition. It lost to Houston twice, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Dallas and Utah. Now, the Warriors return home where they are 16-7 on the season.

Phoenix is coming off a rare road victory at Portland last night, which sets it up for a big letdown spot here against a Warriors' team that is simply going to want this one more. The Suns are just 6-23 in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 8.8 points/game.

Golden State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Phoenix. That includes a 113-93 home victory as a 10.5-point favorite on February 2nd in its lone home meeting with the Suns this season. I look for a similar blowout tonight. The Warriors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Phoenix overall.

This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers should be a much heavier home favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. The home team has won both meetings this season with New York proving victorious 88-76 on November 18th, and Indiana winning 81-76 on January 10th. I look for this trend to continue tonight considering how dominant Indiana has been at home this season.

The Pacers are easily one of the best home teams in the league. They are an outstanding 21-5 at home this season and 16-10 ATS in the process. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points/game at home this year while limiting them to 88.2 points/game and 40.7 percent shooting.

The Knicks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with losses to Washington, LAC and Toronto. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Pacers Wednesday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -5.5

Few teams needed the All-Star break as much as the Portland Trail Blazers. They lost each of their final five games going into the break, all of which came on the road. A nice long break, and a return home, is just what the doctor ordered to get this team back on track as they host the Phoenix Suns Tuesday night.

Portland is an outstanding 17-8 at home this season. It will be taking on a Phoenix team that has really struggled on the road. The Suns are just 5-23 away from home this season, getting outscored by a whopping 9.3 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between these teams. The home team has won six straight and eight of the last nine meetings. The Blazers have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Suns.

This play falls into a system that is 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.

Portland is 13-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest. Phoenix is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a ATS win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Golden State Warriors +3.5

The All-Star break came at a perfect time for the Golden State Warriors. This team had one of the best records in the Western Conference before losing its final five games before the break to 'drop' to 30-22 on the season. As a result, this team is undervalued as the second half of the season kicks off Tuesday.

Golden State should not be catching points against a Utah team that comes in overvalued after beating Oklahoma City and Minnesota in its final two games before the break. The Warriors will simply want this one more to erase the sour taste from five straight defeats heading in. Also, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Utah.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

Golden State is 24-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Warriors are 18-2 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. And finally, Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls (30-22) had a very solid first half of the season to put themselves in great position in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. However, after a rough finish heading into the All-Star break, this team is going to be highly motivated to get back on the court and make amends starting with tonight's game against the New Orleans Hornets.

Chicago lost two straight and four of its last five heading into the break. All four of those losses came against playoff contenders in Indiana, Denver, San Antonio and Boston with three of them coming on the road. That finish certainly leaves a bad taste in these players' mouths, and they'll come out more hungry for a win tonight than in any other game all season.

New Orleans come in overvalued after winning four of its final five games heading into the break. Three of those wins came against current non-playoff teams in Phoenix, Detroit and Portland, and the loss came against Toronto. So, while Chicago played a very tough schedule heading into the break, the Hornets' slate could not have been much easier.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they lost to the Hornets 82-89 at home in their first meeting of the season way back on November 3rd. That was clearly a rare loss for Chicago in this series considering it had won its previous eight meetings with New Orleans. It will certainly want revenge from that defeat, and I fully expect it to get it in blowout fashion tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHICAGO) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Tom Thibodeau is 21-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Chicago is 51-25-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a S.U. loss. The Hornets are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Heat/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4

The Oklahoma City Thunder certainly want revenge on the Heat. They have lost five straight meetings in this series since taking a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals last June. Four of those five losses came on the road. They clearly won

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +5.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing some of their best value of the season as a road underdog to the lowly New Orleans Hornets tonight. After falling to 25-27 on the season with four straight road losses coming in, the Blazers will certainly be motivated for a victory tonight.

Portland cannot afford to lose any more ground on the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. This is its chance to go into the All-Star break on a high note, and I look for it to be giving 110% effort to try and get this victory tonight.

New Orleans (18-34) has no business being favored here. It is getting too much respect for its win at Detroit last time out. It is just 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in all home games this season.

Portland simply owns New Orleans in this head-to-head series. It has won five straight meetings with the Hornets dating back to last season. The Blazers have averaged 102.5 points in their last five games and should be able to find open looks against New Orleans, which has allowed 101.9 points per game over its last 13.

This play falls into a system that is 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off a road win by 10 points or more.

New Orleans is 2-16 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Portland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Denver Nuggets are in as tough of a spot tonight as you will find in the NBA. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days after losing in Toronto last night.

The Nuggets are clearly fatigued, and making matters worse for them is their injury problems. Both Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari sat out last night, and each is questionable to return tonight. Also, Javale McGee is doubtful, while Wilson Chandler is questionable. These are four key contributors for Denver.

Deron Williams is expected to miss tonight's game for Brooklyn, but it proved it could win without him on Monday as it went into Indiana and came away with an 89-84 victory. Williams has been hobbled all season and he really hasn't been himself anyway.

The Nuggets are just 11-17 on the road this season. The Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take the Nets Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers will have no problem getting motivated to face the lowly Charlotte Bobcats tonight. This will be the final game for Indiana before the All-Star break, and it certainly wants to end on a positive note after what has transpired in the last few games.

Indiana has lost its last two games in heartbreaking fashion to both Toronto and Brooklyn. Both losses came in overtime after the Pacers seemingly had the game won in the final seconds of regulation. Motivated to bounce back from those two defeats, I have no doubt the Pacers will roll tonight.

Indiana is 20-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.7 points/game. Charlotte is just 5-20 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 11.7 points/game.

The Pacers beat the Bobcats in their previous meeting 103-76 on the road on January 15th. In fact, this has been a very one-sided series over the past few years. Indiana has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series with five of its last six victories coming by 14 points or more.

The Bobcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Charlotte is 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5

The Golden State Warriors will be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season. As a result, I look for them to roll to a blowout home victory over the Houston Rockets Tuesday.

Golden State has lost four straight coming in, all of which have come on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders Houston, Oklahoma City, Memphis and Dallas. Now, it returns home where it is 16-6 on the season.

The Warriors want some serious payback against the Rockets in this one. They were beaten handily in Houston 109-140 on February 5th just a week ago today. The Rockets made an NBA record-tying 23 three-pointers in the win. That's clearly not going to happen again.

Houston is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. It is losing in this spot 93.1 to 105.4, or by an average of 12.3 points/game. Golden State is 42-24 ATS in home games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1996.

The home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Portland +11.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing solid value as a double-digit road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday. Portland comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping three straight road games at Dallas, Houston and Orlando heading in.

The Blazers were clearly overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this game with the defending champion Heat, which is only human nature. I look for them to come out with one of their best efforts of the season to try and get a win to get back to .500 on the season.

Miami is coming off a huge win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. It also has a game against defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City on deck Thursday on TNT. The Heat will clearly be overlooking the Blazers and looking ahead to that showdown with the Thunder.

This play falls into a system that is 41-18 (69.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days.

Miami is 0-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot 93.2 to 100.3, or by an average of 7.1 points/game. It is clearly overvalued here tonight. Take the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are undervalued right now due to their 22-28 record. This is arguably the best team in the league that has a losing record. Dirk Nowitzki is back and healthy, and there's no question these Mavs will make a run at the playoffs before it's all said and done.

In fact, many Dallas players have made a pact to not shave their beards until they get back to .500 on the season. They have won two straight over Western Conference playoff contenders Portland (105-99) and Golden State (116-91), and now I look for them to make easy work of Atlanta tonight.

The biggest way to tell that the Mavs are undervalued right now is by looking at their recent ATS run. They are an incredible 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall while cashing 85% of the time. Somehow, some way the betting public has not caught on to the fact that this team is undervalued.

Atlanta is not playing well right now. It has lost three of its last four all by double-digits. The Hawks were beaten by Chicago (76-93) and New Orleans (100-111) at home while also falling at Indiana (103-114). This is a team that has been in a rut ever since losing Louis Williams (14.1 PPG) for the season.

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Both teams come in well-rested, but it clearly hasn't been doing the Hawks any good this year. The Mavericks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are undervalued right now due to a recent stretch that has been their worst basketball of the season. They have lost eight of their last 12 games overall while going 4-8 ATS in the process.

However, a big reason for their struggles was a long list of injuries to their star players. Well, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Chauncey Billups and Jamal Crawford have all recently returned to the line-up. It paid off big with a dominant 102-88 win at New York on Sunday.

Philadelphia is no match for Los Angeles, especially with the injuries it is dealing with right now. Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson remain out, but the biggest loss is Thaddeus Young, who is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury.

Young is one of the most underrated players in the league as he is 2nd on the 76ers in scoring (14.9 PPG), 1st in rebounding (7.4 RPG) and 1st in steals (1.6 SPG). He is also the only Philadelphia player shooting better than 48% (52.2) from the field.

The 76ers are clearly missing Young as they have been atrocious offensively without him. They have scored 78.0 points per game while shooting 7 for 44 from 3-point range in their last three contests.

Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 vs. Western Conference opponents. The 76ers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Clippers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Los Angeles is 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9

The Phoenix Suns are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The betting public is not going to want to back the Suns after they got throttled 96-127 at Oklahoma City on Friday.

However, I'll gladly take advantage and back Phoenix at a great price in the rematch of this home-and-home situation. The Suns want revenge after getting embarrassed, while the Thunder will have a hard time getting motivated to play a team they just beat by 31 two nights ago.

Also, Oklahoma City shot out of their mind in Friday's game against the Suns. It shot 57.5% from the field and 14-of-21 (66.7%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again, and Phoenix will easily stay within this number, possibly pulling off the upset.

This play falls into a system that is 48-21 (69.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games.

The Suns are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Phoenix Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +4.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing excellent value as an underdog to the Toronto Raptors Sunday night. The Hornets come in playing great basketball having won each of their last two. They won 93-84 at home over Phoenix before going on the road and knocking off Atlanta 111-100 on Friday.

Toronto has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and it has no business being favored here. That's especially the case considering the Raptors are in a huge letdown spot after their 100-98 (OT) road win at Indiana on Friday. They will have a hard time getting up for New Orleans after such a big victory.

The Hornets come in with revenge in mind having lost three straight to the Raptors, including a 97-104 (OT) home loss in their first meeting of the season on December 28th. They did not have leading scorer Eric Gordon (17.0 PPG) in that contest, but he is back and healthy and making a huge difference for this team.

New Orleans is 40-21 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 10-1 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, New Orleans is 11-1 ATS in road games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Hornets Sunday.

15* Bulls/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +4

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league thanks in large part to the motivation their players receive from the most underrated head coach in the game in Tom Thibodeau. Off back-to-back blowout loss at Indiana and Denver, I look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

The Bulls have been one of the best road teams in the league this season. They are 14-9 away from home this year with road wins over the likes of Mami, New York, Boston and Atlanta in 2013 alone.

Chicago has had Utah

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game Wednesday with the Portland Trail Blazers highly motivated for a win. They trail the Blazers in the Western Conference standings as both are trying to make a push for the playoffs. The Mavs cannot afford to lose this one.

Dallas has two more huge reasons to be laying it all on the line tonight. First, the Mavericks blew a 21-point third quarter lead at Portland last Tuesday to lose 104-106 after LaMarcus Aldridge hit the game-tying 3-pointer and the game-winning jumper for the Blazers in the closing seconds.

Second, Dallas is coming off a poor showing at Oklahoma City on Monday, and it will be hungry to bounce back after such a bad defeat. This team is clearly undervalued right now, and that's proven by the fact that it is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall. I believe the Mavs should be a much heavier home favorite tonight in this one.

Portland is just 8-15 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.4 points/game. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets -6

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot tonight. Phoenix is coming off a huge 96-90 win over Memphis last night, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight. The Suns will also be tired as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.

Meanwhile, New Orleans comes in on three days' rest having last played on Saturday in a blowout loss at Minnesota. In fact, the Hornets have lost four straight games as they come off a brutal five-game road trip with visits to Memphis, LAL, Utah, Denver and Minnesota.

So, the Hornets come in highly motivated to put an end to this losing streak. They are also motivated to avenge a 108-111 (OT) road loss at Phoenix in their first meeting this season. Neither Eric Gordon (16.9 PPG) nor Anthony Davis (13.1 PPG) played in that contest, but each will be suited up for the rematch tonight.

Phoenix is just 5-20 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 8.5 points/game away from home this year. The Suns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Hornets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. New Orleans is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are showing excellent value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Golden State Warriors tonight. I look for them to roll as they continue playing solid basketball over the past few weeks.

The Rockets have won four of their last five games overall while going 4-1 ATS in the process. They come in well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor.

I believe the Warriors come into this contest overvalued due to their 4-game winning streak. All four of those victories came against teams with losing records in the Raptors, Cavs, Mavericks and Suns. A step up in competition tonight will put an and to their winning streak.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Warriors and Rockets. The home team has won four straight and seven of the past eight meetings. Houston is 8-0 in its last eight home meetings with Golden State dating back to 2008 with all eight wins coming by 3 points or more.

Houston is 7-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season. It is outscoring opponents 113.0 to 99.9 in this spot, or by an average of 13.1 points/game. Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +9

The Dallas Mavericks are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point road underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know both Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant are questionable tonight, but no matter whether or not either plays I am all over the Mavs in this one.

My biggest reason for backing the Mavs in this one is the revenge factor. Dallas has lost two heartbreakers to Oklahoma City this season, both of which came in overtime. They lost 105-111 (OT) at Oklahoma City on December 27th as a 10.5-point dog, and 114-117 (OT) vs. the Thunder on January 18th as a 5.5-point dog.

While the Mavs will be highly motivated for payback, I look for the Thunder to relax having already beaten them twice. They know they cannot lose the season series no matter what happens in this game.

Also, seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or less. OKC has won all eight outright, so you can only imagine how badly the Mavs want revenge in this one. They will be giving everything they have to put an end to this streak.

The underdog is 33-16-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Mavericks are 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings in Oklahoma City.

The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) System backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now. They just traded away arguably their best player in Rudy Gay, and they are going to have a hard time finding points from their perimeter players without him. I know many of their players are shocked at what has taken place.

Memphis really wasn't in it mentally last night as it lost 89-106 at Oklahoma City. I look for that to be the case again tonight whether or not Austin Daye, Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis make their season debut for their new team. Plus, this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for Memphis.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is the fact that they run into a buzz saw in the Wizards who have been one of the best covering teams in the league over the past month. Washington is 7-5 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.

The return of John Wall clearly has this team playing its best basketball of the season. The Wizards have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Hawks, Nuggets, Blazers and Bulls during this stretch, which are five playoff contenders.

The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games overall. The Wizards are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -6

The Philadelphia 76ers are undervalued as only a 6-point home favorite over the lowly Sacramento Kings. Philadelphia won't be taking any games off the rest of the way as they fight to earn a playoff spot in the East. The same cannot be said for the 17-30 Kings.

Philly has really played well in its last three games. It beat New York 97-80 while also topping a red hot Washington team 92-84. Its lone loss during this stretch came in the last seconds in a 100-103 setback to Western Conference power Memphis.

Fading the Kings away from home has been a very prosperous move all season. They are just 5-18 SU & 10-13 ATS in road games this season. That includes a blowout road loss at Boston on Wednesday by a final of 81-99.

This has proven to be an excellent matchup for Philadelphia over the past several year, and I fully expect that to be the case again tonight. The 76ers are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Kings. In fact, all seven of those wins have come by 10 points or more!

Keith Smart is 4-15 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of Sacramento. Doug Collins is 40-20 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of Philadelphia. Smart is 16-33 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.

The Kings are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Sacramento is 8-26-2 ATS in its last 36 games following a ATS loss. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sacramento is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* Heat/Pacers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Indiana +2

While the Pacers have lost three of their last four, all three of those losses came on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders in Denver, Utah and Portland. They lost in overtime to the Jazz, and by a single point to the Nuggets. They certainly haven

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to their recent run against the spread. They had covered 10 in a row before a 94-96 home loss to Sacramento on Monday. Now, they're only catching 3.5 points at Philadelphia, and I'll gladly pull the trigger on the 76ers.

Philly has played a brutal schedule of late, which is the reason it is only 1-3 in its last four games. It lost to the Spurs and Grizzlies by a combined 8 points, while also falling at Milwaukee. It did beat the New York Knicks 97-80 at home on Saturday, and a I look for another blowout home win here.

The Wizards are a woeful 3-18 on the road this season. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Washington, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings. Take the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -8

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off three straight losses, all of which came on the road to Western Conference playoff contenders in the Nuggets, Jazz and Blazers.

Now, the Pacers return home to take on an Eastern Conference bottom feeder in the Detroit Pistons, and I fully expect them to make easy work of them while getting back in the win column. Indiana is 16-3 at home this season, while Detroit is just 5-16 on the road.

The Pacers come in the more rested team as well. This will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for the Pacers, while the Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. They started to show signs of wearing down last night with a 90-117 home loss to Milwaukee.

Indiana has won four of its last five meetings with Detroit with three of those wins coming by double-digits. The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Detroit, including 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home meetings. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Mavericks should not be an underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. This is a must-win game for the Mavs as they trail the Blazers by three games in the Western Conference standings as both teams chase the 8th and final playoff spot.

Dallas comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 6-3 SU & an incredible 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. Its only three losses during this stretch came to Western Conference powers in the Clippers, Spurs and Thunder, all by 6 points or less.

Portland comes in playing its worst basketball of the season. The Blazers are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They are showing signs of wearing down right now, and for good reason considering they have the worst bench in the league.

Portland's 16.5 points per game off the bench are by far the fewest in the NBA. The Blazers come in tired as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Mavs are well-rested considering this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more. Dallas beat Portland 114-91 at home in their lone meeting this season on November 5th, which was without Nowitzki.

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 Tuesday games. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5

This is one of the best spots you will ever find to back the Cleveland Cavaliers. Not only are they playing their best basketball of the season right now, they also come in by far the more rested team in this showdown with the Golden State Warriors tonight.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. It has home wins over the Celtics and Bucks, as well as road wins over the Blazers and Raptors during this stretch. This team got a lot stronger with their trade with Memphis, bringing in Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who combined for 29 points in a 99-98 win at Toronto on Saturday.

While the Cavaliers come in on two days' rest since beating the Raptors on Saturday, the Warriors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Most teams are tired as it is as we near the All-Star break, and this situation is nearly unbearable for most teams. That's especially the case for Golden State considering it is expected to be without Stephon Curry (ankle, doubtful) tonight.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on 2 days rest. Golden State is 54-81 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more since 1996. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

25* NBA Pre-All Star GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -7

This is an excellent situation to back the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so much so that I have selected them as my strongest NBA release prior to the All-Star break. I look for them to roll by double-digits tonight over the lowly Phoenix Suns.

Dallas is playing much better now that Dirk Nowitzki is finally back and healthy. The Mavericks are 5-3 SU and a sensational 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers, Thunder and Spurs all by 6 points or less.

Phoenix is a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. After falling at San Antonio 99-108 last night, I look for the Suns to really wear down in this one and not have anything left to give in the 2nd half. That's where the Mavs will pull away.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days.

Phoenix is a woeful 4-18 on the road this season. It is giving up a whopping 103.9 points/game on the road, getting outscored by 8.4 points/game away from home this year.

Dallas is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. It is also 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home meetings against the Suns dating back to 2010. All five of those wins came by 6 points or more, including four by 9 points or more. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are clearly undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last 10 games overall. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Brooklyn Nets, who come in overvalued due to winning 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Brooklyn has been taking advantage of a very easy schedule during its recent run, but it finally met its match last night in an ugly 77-101 loss at Memphis. Houston had played a very tough schedule before getting back on track of late against some softer competition. It won 100-82 at New Orleans last night, which was a win it needed to regain its confidence.

Houston is a perfect 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Brooklyn. It has won all 11 of those meetings by 5 points or more, which dates back to 2006. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing to Rockets since 2006 pertaining to tonight's spread of -2.5.

The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Brooklyn is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Take the Rockets Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Hornets -2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now. I have been riding them with a ton of success lately, and I'll continue backing them at a great price tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Houston Rockets.

New Orleans is 7-3 SU and a sensational 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. It has beaten the likes of San Antonio and Houston at home, while also topping Dallas and Boston on the road during this stretch. This team is much better than its 14-28 record would indicate due to the recent return of G Eric Gordon.

Houston is stuck in a free-fall right now, yet it is still getting treated like one of the better teams in the West. That certainly isn't the case as the Rockets are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Both James Harden and Jeremy Lin have been asked to do too much for this team, and as a result each is starting to wear down.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series to say the least. The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this series dating back to 2011. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New Orleans.

The Rockets are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. division opponents. These seven trends combine for a perfect 40-0 system backing New Orleans. Take the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing excellent value as only a 4-point home favorite over the Brooklyn Nets tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizz in this spot as I fully expect a blowout by game's end.

Brooklyn is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to winning 10 of its last 11 games overall. However, must of those wins have come against weak competition with the likes of the Wizards, Kings, 76ers, Suns, Raptors and Timberwolves mixed in. The schedule finally gets tougher starting tonight.

Memphis remains one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. That's evident by the fact that it is 27-14 SU and an incredible 24-15-2 ATS on the year. The Grizzlies are 16-6 at home this season, giving up just 87.0 points/game. The Nets are a mediocre 10-9 on the road.

The Grizzlies are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Memphis is 47-22-3 ATS in its last 72 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Grizzlies are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet Memphis Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -9.5

The Miami Heat will roll by double-digits tonight over the Detroit Pistons. After a five-day layoff, they were a little rusty against an underrated Toronto team on Wednesday, needing overtime to win 123-116.

Now that the Heat have shaken off the rust, they will turn their attention to a Pistons team that actually beat them 109-99 in their most recent meeting in Detroit on December 28th. Miami will certainly want revenge from that defeat while getting back to its domination in this series.

Miami has won seven of its last eight meetings with Detroit. Four of those seven wins came by 14 points or more, including a 98-75 victory in their most recent home meeting on April 8th, 2012.

The Heat are 17-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points/game. The Pistons are 4-16 on the road this season, scoring a mere 92.5 points/game away from home.

Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less this season. The Pistons are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Heat are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Pistons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

The Washington Wizards have been the best team to back in the NBA over the past couple weeks. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and they should not be a 7-point dog to the Utah Jazz tonight.

Washington is 5-2 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Its only losses came 94-95 at Sacramento as a 5-point dog, and 87-94 at the Los Angeles Clippers as a 13-point dog.

The biggest reason for the Wizards' resurgence is that PG John Wall has returned to the line-up. He has been on board the past six games, so it's no surprise that they are playing their best basketball right now. Wall is averaging 14.0 points and 6.7 assists in six games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 46-22 (67.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Washington is 10-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Wizards are 9-0 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Jazz are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +10.5

The New Orleans Hornets head into this game with the San Antonio Spurs playing their best basketball of the season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight because of it.

New Orleans has gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games overall. This run has coincided with the return of G Eric Gordon from injury. He leads the team in scoring at 17.4 points per game. and he's played in just 10 games all season.

New Orleans has played San Antonio very tough this season. All three meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, including a 95-88 New Orleans home victory on January 7th. The Hornets also lost 95-99 at home on 10/31, and 94-99 on the road on 12/21.

This play falls into a system that is 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games.

The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. Western Conference foes. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

Note: I locked in the Hornets early this morning before it was announced that Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard would be out, while Manu Ginobli is expected to return. I still recommend the Hornets +8.5 (the current line as of 2:00 EST) as a 20* play.