Sports Picks & Predictions

20* Wizards/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5 

Since December 1st, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-0 when all five of their normal starters play.  That’s Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Roberson and Steven Adams.  They are full healthy now and have all five starters going tonight. 

The Thunder will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the short-term, especially Paul George.  Westbrook and head coach Billy Donovan have both been vocal in the media about how George should have made the All-Star team.  He was arguably the biggest snub in the entire NBA, and he’ll be playing with added motivation moving forward. 

The Wizards have lost five of their last eight games overall.  They are in turmoil right now.  Their players’ only meeting clearly did not go very well.  In their first game after the meeting, they lost 75-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks.  And now they are dealing with an injury to one of their best players on Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable with a hip injury tonight. 

Washington is 3-11 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  The Thunder are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning by an average is 11.1 points per game.  The Wizards are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Thunder Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +6 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be greatly underrated despite going 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They are also 15-9 SU in their last 24 games.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall heading into this showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are starting to get too much love after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points at home to these red-hot Bulls.  This is only the second time in the past 14 games that the 76ers have been a favorite of 6 points or more. 

The Bulls have really had the 76ers’ number in recent years, going 14-1 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That’s another reason they should not be catching 6 points in a game they will likely win outright again tonight.  Especially with the 76ers playing without three key players in Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick and T.J. McConnell. 

Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Spurs TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers held a players’ only meeting on Monday following their 124-148 home loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday.  They hashed out their problems, and I look for them to put forth a big effort tonight in San Antonio working on two days’ rest. 

The Spurs aren’t playing much better right now.  They are just 2-4 in their last six games overall with losses to the Lakers, Hawks and Pacers in there.  A big reason for the Spurs’ struggles right now is all of their injuries, while the Cavs come in healthy. 

The Spurs are without Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobli.  Those are four of their best players, and they simply don’t have the talent on the bench to replace them.  Until they get healthy, the Spurs are going to continue to struggle to win games. 

Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after two straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +6.5 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be massively underrated despite going 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They are also 15-8 SU in their last 23 games overall.   

Now they are catching 6.5 points against the New Orleans Pelicans Monday.  I’ll gladly continue backing them at a tremendous value in a game they certainly have the ability to win outright tonight. 

The road team has dominated this series.  The road team is 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to New Orleans. 

Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bulls come in rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  That’s important because Chicago is 12-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10 

The Charlotte Hornets can’t be laying double-digits against anyone right now.  They are just 18-26 on the season, including 12-13 at home.  I’ll gladly fade them here tonight in the double-digit favorite role. 

Certainly there hasn’t been a lot to like about the Kings of late as they have lost seven straight games coming in.  But that also gives us the opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them at this double-digit price. 

Charlotte is 3-13 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Charlotte is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road underdogs (Sacramento) after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent that covered two of their last three are 164-101 (61.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

I like the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep to the Nuggets after losing each of the first three meetings in this season.  This will be their 4th and final meeting and the last chance for the Suns to beat the Nuggets. 

Injuries to the Suns were a big reason for those three previous losses.  And now that they are mostly healthy they are ready to give Denver a run for its money.  Plus, the Suns are rested having two days off coming into this game, and this will be just their 4th game in 12 days dating back further. 

Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 9th game in 15 days.  The Nuggets played in Los Angeles on Wednesday and there’s certainly some distractions that go with that.  Also, I don’t expect the Nuggets to be very motivated at all tonight after already beating the Suns three times this season. 

The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days’ rest.  Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Suns Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5 

The Orlando Magic have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  That’s because they have gone 2-16 straight up in their last 18 games overall.  But now they are starting to catch too many points on a nightly basis, and they shouldn’t be catching double-digit points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. 

The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 4 to Cleveland as 8.5-point home underdogs, by 7 at Milwaukee as 10.5-point underdogs, by 6 at Washington as 10.5-point dogs, and beat Minnesota by 6 as 8.5-point home dogs in their four covers.  So that also makes this a revenge spot for the Magic, who will be looking for payback from their 127-131 home loss to the Cavs on January 6th. 

Cleveland cannot be laying this kind of weight right now.  The Cavaliers are just 3-9 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 108-118 home loss to the Warriors, their biggest rivals.  That sets them up for a hangover spot here as they won’t be nearly as excited to face the Magic tonight, a team they just beat 12 days ago. 

Perhaps my favorite trend of the entire season is that Cleveland is 0-11 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  They are actually losing these games 111.3 to 112.2 on average.  The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season as well.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last few weeks.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have won three of their last four home games with their only loss coming by 2 as 4.5-point underdogs to Washington. 

Now they get to face a New York Knicks team that has been dreadful on the road all season.  The Knicks are just 5-15 SU & 8-12 ATS on the road this year.  They are losing by 7.4 points per game and giving up 107.9 points per game on the highway. 

The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Memphis.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +2.5 

Despite having one of the worst records in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks have been a real money maker for bettors.  They are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Now they are home underdogs to the New Orleans Pelicans when they shouldn’t be. 

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they are coming off back-to-back overtime road wins against the Knicks and Celtics.  They are in a clear letdown spot here after that huge win in Boston last night, and they won’t have much left in the tank. 

This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Hawks, who beat the Spurs 102-99 as 5.5-point home underdogs last time out.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing on back-to-back days are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -1 

After a slow start to the season, the Hornets are starting to rally and make their playoff push.  The slow start was due to injuries and the loss of head coach Steve Clifford, who just recently returned to the bench.  The Hornets have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are now pretty much healthy. 

The Wizards just aren’t playing very well at all right now.  They have lost three of their last five despite playing all five games at home.  And they are also 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 1-point road underdogs to the Hornets here. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 34-10 SU & 27-15-2 ATS in their 44 games this season.  And now they’re still not getting the respect they deserve as only 4.5-point home favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. 

This is a great spot for the Celtics as well.  They will be fresh and ready to go.  This will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, which is extremely rare in the NBA.  But it’s easy to see why as they played the 76ers in London on January 11th, so they needed extra time off to travel.  But this extra rest will be a huge boost for the team moving forward. 

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Pelicans.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Celtics Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8.5

This game is the perfect storm.  The Orlando Magic couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now after going just 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall.  That has started to show of late as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games, losing by 4 to Cleveland, by 7 at Milwaukee and by 6 at Washington.  They are starting to catch too many points. 

Conversely, the Timberwolves couldn’t be more overvalued right now.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But all five games were at home.  Now they hit the road where they have lost three of their last four games to Brooklyn, Boston and Milwaukee out East. 

Minnesota is 18-43 ATS in its last 61 games after scoring 120 points or more.  The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Tuesday. 

20* Lakers/Grizzlies TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -2.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing more inspired today than they would on any average night.  It’s Martin Luther King Day, and with Memphis being the place of MLK’s death, this day holds an even more special day for these players and their fans.  Look for a big effort from them tonight. 

The Grizzlies have been much more competitive of late, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I believe they are currently undervalued.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Grizzlies are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Lakers. 

Los Angeles is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  But three of those four games were at home, and three were against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas.  The Lakers had lost 12 of their previous 13 games prior to this streak. 

The Lakers could be without two of their best players tonight in Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, who are both questionable.  The Lakers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2 

They Miami Heat have now won six straight games.  Now they are getting some reinforcements today as both James Johnson and Justise Winslow are returning from injury.  Now at basically full strength, this team is going to continue being dangerous moving forward. 

The Bucks have struggled of late, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a disappointing 94-108 home loss to the Golden State Warriors Friday in which they blew a 4th quarter lead.  I think they’ll suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs. 

Miami is 12-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 16-5 ATS versus poor rebounding teams getting outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 Sunday games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1 

We are certainly getting a nice value with the Chicago Bulls at home tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They just have to win the game essentially to cover, and this team has been doing a lot of winning and covering of late. 

Indeed, the Bulls are 12-7 SU in their last 19 games and 15-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  They have consistently been undervalued over the past month and that hasn’t changed one bit here tonight.  I love the passion this team has played with ever since Nikola Mirotic returned to the lineup. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  None of those four meetings were even close as the home team won by 11 points or more in all four meetings and by an average of 17 points per game. 

Detroit is 4-17 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Pistons are 20-43 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Bulls Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 

Both the Wizards and Nets played last night, so there will be no advantage there.  The Wizards beat the Magic 125-119, while the Nets beat the Hawks 110-105.  But the difference here is that the Nets have the better bench and will be the fresher team because nobody played big minutes last night. 

Only one player played more than 29 minutes for the Nets, which was the 33 by Allen Crabbe.  Conversely, the Wizards had their three studs in John Wall (36), Bradley Beal (36) and Otto Porter (39) all play big minutes as they were fighting tooth and nail to beat the lowly Magic. 

The Nets have owned the Wizards this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in the two previous meetings.  They won 103-98 as 3.5-point home underdogs, and 119-84 as 6-point home dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 9.5 points in the third meeting, which is simply too much. 

The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Washington is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Nets Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  This run has them overvalued now.  And the Timberwolves are clearly primed for a letdown after back-to-back huge home wins over the Cavaliers and Thunder. 

Plays against favorites (Minnesota) after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% or more of their games on the season are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Conversely, the Knicks are undervalued after going just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But six of those eight losses came by 9 points or fewer, so they have been competitive.  And seven of those 10 games were on the road.  It has been a tough stretch, but the Knicks should be rejuvenated now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. 

The Knicks have owned the Timberwolves over the past two seasons, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS despite being the underdog in three of those four meetings.  They just have the winning formula against the Timberwolves, and I think they will be the more motivated team in this matchup. 

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +2.5 

I’m not sure how the Cleveland Cavaliers can actually be favored tonight against the Indiana Pacers with how poorly they are playing.  After all, the Cavaliers are 6-25-1 ATS as favorites this season, so they have been money burners all year. 

And now the Cavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after yet another ugly 99-133 loss in Toronto last night against a Raptors team that was playing without two starters in Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.  That followed up a 99-127 loss at Minnesota the game before.  The Cavs are now just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests.  And now they’ll be without Isaiah Thomas, who is resting in this one. 

The Pacers haven’t won a game when Victor Oladipo has sat out.  But he returned from injury three games ago and the Pacers have gone 2-1 since.  They beat the Bulls 125-86 and the Bucks 109-96 while losing to the red-hot Miami Heat 106-114.  But they shot just 1-of-18 from 3-point range against the Heat, yet were still tied with a few minutes to go.  They won’t shoot that poorly again, especially not against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 129 points per game in their last three contests. 

Indiana is 9-1 ATS after having lost six or seven of its last eight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 7.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Cavs are 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road gams.  The Pacers have won each of their first two meetings this season with the Cavs outright as underdogs.  Indiana is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they are clearly in a letdown spot after beating the Warriors on the road last night.  Well, the Warriors sat both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so it comes with an asterisk. 

The Clippers won’t be nearly as excited to face the Kings, who will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall.  But in their last two home games they beat Denver 106-98 as 8.5-point dogs and led San Antonio nearly the entire way until the closing minutes, losing 100-107 as 5-point dogs. 

While the Kings are relatively healthy, the Clippers have all kinds of injury issues that will make this back-to-back that much more difficult.  They have been without Blake Griffin, who remains questionable with a concussion.  Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverly are all out.  C.J. Williams is doubtful, while Milos Teodosic is questionable. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - off a loss to a division rival, in January games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Clippers) - off two or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Kings Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis tonight.  They haven’t been playing well of late anyways, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset home losses to Dallas and New York during this stretch, and an 18-point road loss at Minnesota. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play much better here of late.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing four of their last five games on the road, and their lone home game was a 2-point loss to Washington as 4.5-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have owned the Pelicans, going 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent off a loss by 6 points or less are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5 

The Pacers had lost five in a row before the return of Victor Oladipo.  He returned Saturday and sparked the Pacers’ 39-point win.  The Pacers then led the entire way in an impressive 109-96 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Heat are overvalued right now due to winning five straight games.  But now they’re in a tough spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 90-89 victory in Toronto against a Raptors team that was playing without Kyle Lowry last night.   

And now the Heat will likely be without one of their best players in James Johnson, who is expected to be suspended.  They were already missing Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, and Tyler Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injuries.  That makes this back-to-back set even more difficult for them. 

Indiana is 10-0 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Indiana.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

I love the situation tonight for the Indiana Pacers.  They just lost to the Bucks 101-122 on the road on Wednesday, January 3rd.  Now they get their chance at revenge less than a week later, and this time around they will have their best player in Victor Oladipo. 

After losing five consecutive games and remaining winless when Oladipo sits, they got a big boost with his return on Saturday.  Oladipo went 9-of-11 shooting for 23 points and delivered nine assists with five steals in a 125-86 rout of the Chicago Bulls.   

Now the Pacers will be fresh as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  And the Pacers have owned the Bucks at home, going 34-12 straight up in their last 46 meetings. 

Plays on favorites (Indiana) - revenging a loss vs. opponent by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 106-60 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have had a rough season injury-wise thus far, yet they’re still 20-18 on the year.  Look for this team to make a push into the All-Star Break after going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Spurs have lost two of their last four to the Piston and 76ers with their two wins coming against the Knicks and Suns.  Unlike Portland, San Antonio is really banged up right now.  The Spurs are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Rudy Gay tonight. 

The Spurs are just 9-11 SU & 7-12-1 ATS on the road this season.  Plays on home favorites (Portland) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in Sunday games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Portland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points.  Take the Blazers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a brutal spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team right now, and it has shown with back-to-back road losses at Brooklyn and at Boston. 

After facing Boston last night, it will be a long flight back to Minnesota.  And compounding matters is the fact that they have to face a rested Pelicans team that has had two days off coming in, and one that will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. 

They will also be facing a motivated Pelicans team that has already lost twice at home to the Timberwolves this season.  So they’ll want some revenge here, and they should get it given their massive rest advantage. 

Plays on underdogs (New Orleans) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 98-54 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4.5 

The Miami Heat have done a great job of digging themselves out of an early hole to get to 20-17 and currently three games above .500.  They recently got James Johnson back in the lineup, and they are getting some big contributions from everywhere. 

The Heat have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off a 111-104 win over the Pistons.  Kelly Olynyk had 25 points and 13 rebounds, Goran Tragic had 24 points and 13 assists, Josh Richardson had 25 points and 5 assists and Johnson provided 16 points in 24 minutes in his return from injury. 

I don’t like the mindset of the Knicks right now.  Kristaps Porzingis came out and said he is so tired right now, and that it’s mentally tough and he doesn’t have it in him.  That’s a bad statement and one that won’t sit well in the locker room moving forward. 

The Knicks have gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 3-13 SU & 5-11 ATS on the road this season.  The Knicks are 1-12 ATS in road games against teams who attempts 21 or fewer free throws per game over the last two seasons.  Miami is 25-11 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 Friday games.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 

I love the situation for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They get a chance to avenge an overtime loss in Toronto on Monday, January 1st just a few days ago.  They will be the more motivated team here on Friday, January 5th. 

The Bucks come in playing well having gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have beaten Minnesota and Indiana at home, and Oklahoma City on the road while also losing to the Raptors on the road in overtime.  This team is really coming together. 

I think the Raptors are way overvalued right now as road favorites here over the Bucks.  They have won three straight coming in, but the schedule has been much lighter with games against the Hawks, Bucks and Bulls. They lost their two previous road games to the Thunder and Mavericks prior to this winning streak. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday nights are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Bucks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -6 

The Detroit Pistons are extremely vulnerable right now due to all their injuries.  They are already without Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson and Jon Leuer.  Now they could be without All-Star center Andre Drummond tonight as he is questionable with a rib injury. 

The 76ers are in good shape on the injury front with their only player they’re missing being Markelle Fultz, who has been out for months.  This return to health has led to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run over their last five games for the 76ers. 

I’m expecting a big effort here from the 76ers.  That’s because they won’t play against until January 11th, getting five days off in between games.  They want to go into this extended break on a four-game winning streak and should have no problem accomplishing that against the depleted Pistons. 

Philadelphia is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Pistons are 19-42 ATS in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Detroit is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The favorite is 39-18-1 ATS in the last 58 meetings.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

20* Thunder/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2 

The Los Angeles Clippers are way under the radar right now.  They had some key injuries that led to a poor run, but now Blake Griffin and company are back healthy and the Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. 

Indeed, the Clippers are 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won all six games by 8 points or more as well.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Conversely, the Thunder just played last night against the Lakers and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  And spending the night in Los Angeles is always a shaky proposition because it’s likely the players went out and partied last night.  And the Thunder have been money burners on the road, going 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS this season. 

Oklahoma City is 3-15 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Los Angeles is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Thunder are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* Cavs/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -2.5 

The Boston Celtics want to make a statement tonight and let the Cleveland Cavaliers know that they are coming for them in the Eastern Conference.  Look for a big effort from the Celtics, especially given the advantageous situation for them. 

The Celtics were a tired team in December with a brutal schedule and few breaks.  But they got a big break heading into this game with two days off having last played on Sunday against Brooklyn.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

Conversely, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a home win over the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  It was Isaiah Thomas’ season debut, and he played well and showed what might be a sign of things to come.  But now Thomas will sit this game to rest, and the Cavaliers will be fatigued quickly. 

The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Boston is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8 

The Houston Rockets cannot be 8-point road favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  They just lost their best player and MVP candidate James Harden to a hamstring injury that will sideline him for a couple weeks.  They’ll still be good with Chris Paul, but they cannot be laying this kind of weight. 

Conversely, the Orlando Magic are getting healthy.  They just recently got back their top two scorers in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, who both average over 18 points per game.  They have been competitive in their three games since their return, beating Detroit by 13 and only losing to Miami by 6 and Brooklyn by 3. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  The Magic have won two of their last three home meetings with the Rockets outright, and their only loss came by 7 points, which is less than this 8-point spread. 

The Rockets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Rockets, including 6-2 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +2 

The Magic just recently got healthy with Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon returning to the lineup.  These are their two leading scorers as Gordon averages 18.9 PPG while Fournier scores 18.3 PPG.  They have gone 1-1 since their return with an upset win over Detroit by 13 and a 6-point loss to Miami as underdogs. 

I think the Magic can take advantage of a Nets team in a terrible situation tonight.  The Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a tough 105-108 loss in Boston last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank here. 

The spot is even worse for the Nets considering they are coming off a five-game road trip with a ton of travel.  I usually like fading tired teams off an extended road trip in their first game back home.  They are usually distracted, and the Nets will certainly be distracted considering last night was New Year’s Eve. 

The Nets are 6-17 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three seasons.  Brooklyn is 18-33 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three years.  Bet the Magic Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2 

This is the perfect spot to fade the Memphis Grizzlies.  They are coming off a 128-141 shootout loss to the Golden State Warriors on the road last night.  So they will be tired now as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days tonight. 

The Kings come in rested with yesterday off and motivated for a victory following an upset home loss to the Suns.  It was an understandable loss as they were coming off a 109-95 upset win over the Cavs as 9.5-point dogs, so it was clearly a letdown spot.  Look for them to be refocused and ready to go tonight against the fatigued Grizzlies. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS off a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite.  Memphis is 2-11 ATS when the total is 190 to 195.5 this season.  The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

What do the Chicago Bulls have to do to get any love from the books?  They are once again catching too many points here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Washington Wizards. 

All the Bulls have done is gone 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games.  This run has coincided with Nikola Mirotic joining the lineup over the past 12 games.  There’s no reason to stop backing them now. 

I think the Wizards are getting love from oddsmakers from their 121-103 win over the Rockets on Friday.  But that was an awful spot for the Rockets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they were without Chris Paul.  They had blown a 26-point lead to the Celtics the previous night and were in a hangover spot because of it. 

The Bulls are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take the Bulls Sunday. 

25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are getting contributions from everywhere and continue to be one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA at this point in the season. 

Now the mission will be to avenge a 96-98 road loss at Indiana the game before this streak started.  The Bulls led that game 83-69 entering the fourth quarter, but were outscored 29-13 in the final period.  There’s no question they haven’t forgotten that loss and will want to get their revenge at home this time around. 

I like their chances considering Indiana is likely to be without its best player in Victor Oladipo in this one.  Oladipo missed the last game with knee soreness and is doubtful to play tonight.  It would be a huge loss for the Pacers as he averages 24.9 points per game and is their emotional leader. 

The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings and is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a grueling 128-125 overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, especially since they are expected to be without starting PG Jeff Teague. 

Milwaukee comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back losses to Charlotte and Chicago.  The Bucks will be the much fresher team as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bucks own the Timberwolves, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won their last three home meetings with the Timberwolves by 7, 15 and 14 points.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. 

The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS In their last four games vs. at team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Timberwolves are 17-42 ATS in their last 59 after scoring 120 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 25-12 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a big hangover spot tonight against the Sacramento Kings.  They just lost to their biggest rivals in the Golden State Warriors 99-92 on Christmas Day.  There’s no way they will bring the same intensity to this game against the Kings that they did against the Warriors. 

That’s especially the case considering they just beat the Kings 101-95 as 12.5-point home favorites earlier this month.  They will think they can just show up and win, while the Kings will be ultra motivated to get revenge and pull off the upset. 

I realize the Kings played last night against the Clippers on the road, but that was a blowout and they won’t be fatigued because of it.  They were probably looking ahead to this game.  And this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, so the effects of the back-to-back are a non-factor here. 

Cleveland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season.  Cleveland is 0-12 ATS as a favorite of 9.5 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 5-21 ATS as a favorite this year.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1.5 

The Boston Celtics are running on fumes right now.  They haven’t had two straight days off since November 28-29.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days here tonight, and they have a home game against Houston on deck tomorrow. 

It’s no wonder the Celtics are currently going through their roughest stretch of the season.  They have lost three of their last four to Miami, New York and Washington.  The Celtics are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Making matters worse for the Celtics is that they are banged-up right now.  They are without Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye for this game.  Their depth, which has been a huge strength up to this point, has been compromised. 

The Hornets are fresh and ready to go tonight as they have had three days off since beating the Bucks 111-106 at home on Saturday.  They are also extremely healthy right now for the first time basically all season as they only significant player they are missing is bench player Cody Zeller. 

The Hornets blew a 57-41 halftime lead and lost 87-90 at Boston in their only meeting against the Celtics this season.  They will be motivated for revenge at home this time around.  The Hornets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

The Detroit Pistons are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and deserve to be getting more respect here tonight.  One of those was a 104-98 road win at Indiana as 5-point underdogs. 

The Pacers are just 3-3 in their last six games.  Their three wins came against Brooklyn (twice) and Atlanta, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Now they have to travel and face a Pistons team that has a huge home-court advantage over the past several seasons, going 10-5 at home this year. 

The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +2 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 4-1 to the Rockets in the playoffs with three of those losses coming by 6 points or fewer.  They were a one-man show with Russell Westbrook then, but that’s the case no longer now. 

The Thunder have finally started to gel with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 6-1 in their last seven games overall coming in.  They are primed to upset the Houston Rockets on Christmas Day. 

The Rockets have struggled of late with back-to-back upset home losses to the Lakers are 15-point favorites and the Clippers as 12.5-point favorites.  It’s easy to see why they’ve struggled with their injuries right now.  Chris Paul has missed the past couple games and is doubtful, Luc Mbah a Moute remains out, and Clint Capela is questionable. 

The Thunder are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-4 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points per game on average.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -3 

One of the best bets of the early NBA season is backing the New York Knicks when at home.  They are 15-5 SU & 15-5 ATS in their 20 home games this year, winning by an average of 7.0 points per game.  Madison Square Garden is becoming the home-court advantage that it used to be. 

Now the Knicks get to host the struggling Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  The 76ers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games.  They continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers night in and night out. 

The 76ers are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now, too.  Markelle Fultz is out, J.J. Redick is questionable and Joel Embiid is nursing a back injury, though he is likely to play today.  The Knicks are basically fully healthy outside of Tim Hardaway. 

New York is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won four or five of its last six games this season.  The 76ers are 0-8-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Roll with the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8 

The Phoenix Suns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers since trading away Eric Bledsoe and losing Devin Booker to injury.  But this team has arguably been better since because they are so deep.  And they consistently catch more points in the underdog role than they should be getting, which is the case once again tonight as 8-point home dogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Suns have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only gone 4-7 SU during this stretch, but only three of those seven losses came by more than this 8-point spread.  They have only played four games at home during this stretch, and only one of those game resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. 

Phoenix has played Minnesota extremely tough this season.  This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season, and the Suns are 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their first three meetings.  They won 118-110 as 10-point home dogs, won 108-106 as 12-point road dogs, and only lost 108-119 as 11-point road dogs for their only push.  So they have actually played the Timberwolves very evenly, and they should be able to stay within 8 points at home again. 

Minnesota is 21-37 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves ar e3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Phoenix is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Suns Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz PK 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They had yesterday off.  That followed a 100-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which came after an ugly 79-107 road loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday.  Now the Jazz will be out for revenge getting to face the Thunder just three days later, but at Salt Lake City this time around. 

And the Thunder are extremely vulnerable coming into this game.  They won’t be motivated to beat a team they just blew out three days ago.  And they are coming off an emotional buzzer-beating 120-117 home win over the Hawks last night as 11.5-point home favorites.  It’s a clear letdown spot for them. 

Plus, the Thunder are running on fumes right now.  Not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Thunder haven’t had back-to-back days off since November 27-28.  This is such a tired team right now, and it helps explain why they are just 10-21 ATS on the season, including 5-11 SU & 4-12 ATS in road games. 

Utah 9-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Thunder are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Jazz Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 

I love the Philadelphia 76ers in this spot.  This is a home-and-home situation after the 76ers lost 109-114 at home to the Toronto on Thursday.  Now they get their shot at revenge only two days later and are catching 10.5 points in the rematch to boot.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated team catching double-digit points here. 

The 76ers are certainly a ‘buy low’ team right now after going just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.  But they were never once a double-digit underdog in those 13 games.  They were favored in eight of them.  Now they’re back to their more preferred role as underdogs. 

The Raptors are a great ‘sell high’ candidate right now.  They have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 games while covering each of their last four against the spread.  But it has come against an extremely soft schedule, and it’s worth noting the Raptors are just 5-7 SU against teams who are above .500 this season.  They aren’t as good as they’re perceived to be right now. 

Plays against any team (Toronto) off two or more consecutive road wins, in December games are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Philadelphia) off a home loss to a division rival against opponent off a home win against a division foe are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five years.  Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the 76ers Saturday. 

20* Lakers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +11 

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to want revenge from two overtime home losses to the Golden State Warriors already this season.  They lost 123-127 as 13.5-point dogs, and then 114-116 as 5.5-point dogs on December 18th just five days ago.  I really like the revenge factor being fresh in this quick rematch. 

The Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been on the road for five of these six games, pulling off upset wins over Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, Houston as 15-point dogs and Charlotte as 3.5-point dogs.  And all three of their losses came by 2, 4 and 9 points.  That 9-point loss came in a cover as 10.5-point dogs at Cleveland. 

The Warriors are vulnerable right now because of all their injuries.  Steph Curry, Zaza Pachulia and Shaun Livingston remain out, Andre Iguodala is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play tonight but is battling as shoulder injury.  I don’t expect a very focused effort from the Warriors tonight after just beating the Lakers on Monday. 

Plays on road teams (LA Lakers) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +3 

The Boston Celtics are in an extremely difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They haven’t had consecutive days off in the entire month of December.   

This team is running on fumes right now, and it showed their their 89-90 upset home loss to the Miami Heat. They will also be playing their 8th game in 12 days tonight.  I don’t expect much of an effort at all from them tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Knicks have had two days off since last playing on Monday.  And they get a big boosts with he return of Kristaps Porzingis to the lineup tonight after he missed the past two games with a sore knee. 

The Knicks have been a great beat at home this season, going 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS inside Madison Square Garden.  The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Chicago Bulls are now 7-0 since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut seven games ago.  He is averaging 19.6 points per game and the bench is playing great.  The Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 10.5-point underdogs here. 

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 112-94 home win over Orlando last night.  But that’s not a concern because of their deep bench, and the fact that no player logged more than 29 minutes Wednesday, so the team should be relatively fresh as a whole. 

The Cars are way overvalued due to winning 18 of their last 20 games.  They have gone just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They aren’t blowing teams out.  And now they have their NBA Finals rematch with Golden State on deck on Christmas Day and can’t help but be looking ahead to that huge showdown. 

The Bulls have had the Cavaliers’ number, going 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 Thursday games.  The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are on a roll right now and they’re still being undervalued tonight as only 2-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. 

While they are just 3-3 SU during this stretch, they have played five of their last six on the road.  And their three losses came to Houston (by 7), Golden State (by 7) and Minnesota (by 1), three of the best teams in the NBA.  This recent stretch of great play has been possible by the fact that the Blazers have gotten 100% healthy. 

The Spurs are usually one of the best teams in the NBA, but they won’t be tonight with all the players they’ll be missing due to injury.  San Antonio will be without both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, plus Danny Green and Kyle Anderson are both banged up as well.  They won’t have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers tonight. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Portland) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 or more points in their previous game are 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Portland is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with San Antonio.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are playing team basketball and I’m going to continue riding them tonight.  Mirotic is averaging 23.2 points per game over his past five games. 

"You can see it in the locker room," Chicago guard Kris Dunn said. "Everybody has a smile, everyone is happy. That's what it's all about. I think the biggest thing, the reason why we are winning is because we are having fun with it. When you are having fun, when you are winning, things (are) a lot smoother.”

Now the Bulls get to play the banged-up Orlando Magic, who have lost five straight coming in to fall to 11-20 on the season.  They are missing two starters in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, and their 6th man Terrence Ross remains out as well.  They simply do not have the talent elsewhere to make up for the losses of these three key players.

Chicago has owned Orlando, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the four wins coming by 22, 47, 32 and 8 points.  That 22-point win came earlier this season on November 3rd in Orlando.  The Magic are 0-7 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season.  Orlando is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 games following an ATS win.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books for their upset win over Philadelphia last night, a tired Philly team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back itself. 

The Nets are rested and ready to go as they have had two days off since losing to Indiana on Sunday.  They will also be motivated for a victory after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, which has them undervalued as well.  The Nets had gone 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games and I feel like they are back to being undervalued here. 

The Kings are 14-25 ATS off a win over the last two seasons.  Sacramento is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on 0 days’ rest.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nets are 43-19-2 ATS in their last 64 vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +2.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  They have also had two days off since a 111-115 loss at Houston as 10.5-point dogs on Saturday, which was as tough as anyone has played the Rockets during their 14-game winning streak. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 18-1 in their last 19 games overall.  But they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. 

Milwaukee will also be out for revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season to the Cavaliers.  They want to prove they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs, who are much more vulnerable this season than they have been in year’s past due to trading Kyrie Irving and with all their current injuries. 

Cleveland is a woeful 5-19 ATS as a favorite this season.  Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 6.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +2.5 

Since Nikola Mirotic returned to the Bulls’ lineup on December 8th, they have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They have beaten Charlotte and Milwaukee on the road, and New York, Boston and Utah at home.   

They were underdogs in all five games, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as home dogs tonight.  Mirotic has led the way in averaging 25 points in his past three games and is the team’s leading scorer on the season. 

The 76ers are in a hangover spot here off a triple-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Joel Embiid suffered a back injury in that game, but played all three overtimes.  He will now sit out this game to rest, as will Trevor Booker.  The 76ers aren’t nearly the same team without Embiid.  They have lost five of their last six games overall coming in. 

Philadelphia is 24-39 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 25-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams out-rebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 12-2 ATS In its last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 25-7.  Getting them as only 2-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers is a nice bargain tonight, especially considering the tough spot the Pacers are in. 

Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 win in Brooklyn on Sunday.  The Pacers will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Celtics had yesterday off and will be re-energized here after beating the Grizzlies 102-93 on the road Saturday. 

The Celtics have owned the Pacers, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four wins came by 6 points or more, and most of those came against better Pacers teams that had Paul George.  This is a better Celtics team this season as Kyrie Irving and this young talent have really played at a high level all year. 

Boston is 11-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  Indiana is 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Celtics Monday. 

15* Cavs/Wizards NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Washington PK 

The Washington Wizards just recently got back John Wall from injury.  It’s no surprise they have won their two games since his return.  And now they’re going to want to make a statement against the Cleveland Cavaliers, letting them know they are coming for them this season. 

And now the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, as well as their 6th game in 10 days.  The Cars were already short-handed without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, and now both Tristan Thompson and Dwyane Wade are expected to rest.  The Cavs are short on numbers and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) after two or more consecutive wins, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 72-37 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +3 

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played a triple-overtime game against the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since all five starters played basically the entire 15 minutes of overtime.  Russell Westbrook played 52 minutes, Steven Adams 51, Paul George 45, Carmelo Anthony 47 and Andre Roberson 34. 

The Knicks will be motivated for the Anthony reunion to prove that they are a better team without him.  They will also be rested after having yesterday off.  The Knicks are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game on average.  They have been one of the most profitable teams to bet at home this season. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Oklahoma City) - off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Knicks Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +1 

The Denver Nuggets have actually been able to sustain success despite the losses of their two best players in Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in recent weeks.  But they don’t have to play without both any longer as Jokic is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight. 

The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since November 22-24.  They have gone just 4-6 since and are coming off a 115-108 home victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 9th game in 15 days.  This is a tired team right now. 

The Nuggets are going to want revenge from a 123-114 road loss at New Orleans on December 6th just over a week ago.  The Nuggets won their three previous meetings with the Pelicans, including blowout home wins by 32 and 16 points.  They should not be home underdogs here tonight. 

The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Friday games.  The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Denver.  Bet the Nuggets Friday. 

15* Thunder/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overrated team in the NBA to this point.  They are just 13-14 SU & 8-18 ATS, including 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS on the road.  They have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The problem with the Thunder is that in trading for Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, they traded away all their depth.  Their bench is awful, and Anthony has proven to be a cancer in Oklahoma City just like he was in New York. 

The 76ers will be hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Thunder after last playing on Tuesday.  They are almost fully healthy now as the only player they will be missing tonight Is Markelle Fultz.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. 

The 76ers are 20-4 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Philadelphia is 42-16-1 ATS in its last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an overvalued commodity this season due to the signing of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are consistently laying prices that they cannot handle, and I think that’s the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites over the Kings. 

The Timberwolves are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are a mediocre 16-12 SU on the season as well.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 0.6 points per game on the season, including just 2.2 points per game at home.  They aren’t blowing out teams on the regular. 

The Kings have been a nice money-maker for backers over the past three weeks.  They have been flying under the radar, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have three upset victories during this stretch, including a road win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. 

The Kings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Timberwolves, winning twice outright as underdogs.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six road games.  The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back.  Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done. 

The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season.  They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game. 

The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5 

The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him.  They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7). 

I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run.  But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers.  They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here. 

The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number.  They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home. 

The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons.  Take the Suns Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road.  The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. 

Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling.  The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home.  They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs.  I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here. 

The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless.  Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight.  The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee. 

The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss.  The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5 

The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis.  But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him.  They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets. 

The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS.  They have been competitive in most games.  They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to. 

The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. 

The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss.  Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season.  Take the Nets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall.  They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently.  They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins. 

Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits.  The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season.  They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th.  The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall. 

Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar.  The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets.  They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch. 

The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable.  They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert.  And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks. 

Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to play better.  They have won four of their last five games overall.  But they are actually 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so they are not living up to expectations from oddsmakers.  I think that has them undervalued now as only 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets. 

Paul George has sat out the last two games, but he is expected to return for this contest against the Charlotte Hornets.  They blew a 16-point lead to the Nets in their first game without him.  Then they came back from 20 points down to beat the Grizzlies in overtime.  I think having him back in the lineup will be a huge boost tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are really struggling.  They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost back-to-back home games to the Bulls and Lakers.  They have a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with right now, too.  Nic Batum (elbow), Frank Kaminsky (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) are all questionable, while Cody Zeller (knee) is out. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oklahoma City) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Hornets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma City.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +8.5 

The Sacramento Kings just can’t get any respect from the books.  And until they do, we’ll continue to back them catching big points in the underdog role.  They should not be this big of a home underdog to the Toronto Raptors today. 

The Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Three of the four wins were upsets, including a win at New Orleans as 9.5-point dogs and a win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs.  The are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, pulling off outright upsets over the Thunder, 76ers, Blazers and Lakers in the process. 

The Raptors are getting too much love from the books due to their 5-game winning streak coming in.  But those five wins came against the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Suns and Grizzlies.  That’s an easy slate, and it showed considering they were 5-point favorites or more in all five games.  It won’t come so easy against the Kings tonight. 

The Kings are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Raptors.  Sacramento is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in all meetings with Toronto over the past two seasons, winning both road meetings outright as underdogs as well.  The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2 

I absolutely love this situation for the Atlanta Hawks Saturday.  They just lost to Orlando in overtime on the road on December 6th 106-110.  They have now had two days off to get ready for the Magic, and they’ll clearly want revenge getting them at home this time around. 

Meanwhile, the Magic had to play a game last night against Denver, losing 89-103 at home.  So this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 days for the Magic.  That’s about as tough a situation as it gets. 

The Magic are running on fumes right now as they haven’t had two days in a row off since November 16-17.  They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days with three back-to-backs in there.  They are short-handed right now without arguably their best player in Evan Fournier, and key 6th man Terrance Ross.  Also star rookie Jonathan Isaac is doubtful with an ankle injury. 

Orlando is 12-27 ATS versus teams who give up 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet the Hawks Saturday. 

15* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on San Antonio -2 

The San Antonio Spurs are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  At 17-8 on the season, the Spurs are hardly missing Kawhi Leonard.  They are playing team ball with 30 assists in their last game and a ridiculous eight of their 11 players scored at least 10 points in a 117-105 win over Miami. 

I think the Celtics are grossly overrated right now due to their 22-4 start to the season.  You certainly are paying a tax to back them now.  That’s why they have only covered two of their last five against the spread coming into this game.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books again at basically a pick ‘em on the road here against one of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Spurs have owned the Celtics, going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs have won five straight home meetings with the Celtics dating back to 2011. 

San Antonio is 25-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 8-19 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three years.  The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Friday games.  Take the Spurs Friday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are going to want revenge from a 106-114 home loss to the Pelicans the first time these teams played.  DeMarcus Cousins had a monster game against his former team, but don’t expect that to happen again.  He won’t be nearly as motivated the second time around. 

And Cousins is going to be asked to do a lot with the Pelicans’ best player in Anthony Davis sidelined for this one with a groin injury.  Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca are also out with injuries.  The Pelicans can’t be laying this kind of number with their current injury situation. 

The Kings have been grossly underrated here of late as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-4 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat the Warriors on the road and the Lakers and Bulls at home.  Three of their four losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, including their 95-101 loss in Cleveland as 12.5-point dogs last time out.  It took some late Lebron James heroics to put them away. 

The Kings are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pelicans are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with three double-digit losses during this stretch.  They are clearly missing Davis. 

New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games versus teams who are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Kings Friday. 

15* Warriors/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +6 

The Golden State Warriors are in a world of hurt right now with their injuries.  It was already announced that Stephen Curry was going to miss two weeks with a bad ankle injury suffered in their last game.  And this morning it was announced that Draymond Green will also sit with a shoulder injury. 

Curry is the most important player on this team even though Kevin Durant won the MVP in the finals last year.  He makes this team tick.  And Green is perhaps the most underrated player in the NBA.  No other team has a player like him.  He sets the best screens and is the key to their pick and roll action with his ability to pass the ball and find open teammates.  And he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA. 

The Hornets just recently got their star PG Kemba Walker back in the lineups nd promptly crushed Orlando 104-94 last time out.  Now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days and will be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 12 days.  They are running on fumes right now, which makes the fact that they are without Green and Curry even worse. 

Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in road games when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 

The tax you have to pay to back the Boston Celtics right now is very steep.  That’s because they have opened 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS through their first 25 games of the season.  You are going to be getting no discounts on them with the betting public catching on already. 

Conversely, you can get a great price on the Dallas Mavericks due to their 7-17 SU & 10-14 ATS start.  But they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are a much better team than that record would indicate. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have beaten Milwaukee by 32, Oklahoma City by 16, the Clippers by 26 and the Nuggets by 17 during this streak.  They are not only beating teams, they are crushing them.  And their three losses have all come by 8 points or fewer in their last eight games. 

One of those was a 102-110 home loss in overtime to this same Celtics team on November 20th, meaning the Mavericks will be motivated for revenge just two weeks later.  And the Celtics have a huge road game at San Antonio on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest. 

Dallas is 26-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Boston is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off three or more consecutive home wins are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Boston.  The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Blazers NBATV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -5.5 

It’s safe to say the Portland Trail Blazers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset home losses to the Bucks and Pelicans.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, fatigued Washington Wizards tonight. 

The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an ugly 69-114 loss in Utah last night.  They remain without John Wall, and have gone just 3-6 in their last nine games overall.  Now they’re up against a fresh, pissed off Blazers team that has had two days off coming into this one. 

The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS versus teams who average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Blazers have been talking about their lack of assists and why the offense has struggled recently, so look for them to play more team-oriented bacsketball tonight. 

"That's a reflection of how our offense is struggling,” Damian Lillard said. "We're not shooting the ball as well, we're not scoring as well, and so the assists are down.”  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak.  But they are just 5-6 ATS during this streak as most of those wins have been close.  In fact, nine of those 11 wins have come by 11 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer. 

Conversely, the Bulls are undervalued right now due their 8-game losing streak, so it’s the perfect storm.  But six of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  And they have had some really hard luck of late, losing their last four games by 1, 1, 5 and 7 points.  This team is quietly improving under Fred Hoiberg. 

The Bulls have been a thorn in Cleveland’s side in recent years.  In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They only lost 112-119 in Cleveland as 15-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  The Bulls are actually 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with Cleveland!   

The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS as a favorite this season.  Cleveland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 when playing against a team with a winning % of 25% or worse.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets fit one of my favorite situations to play in the NBA.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Nets and Hawks.  They just played on Saturday with the Hawks pulling the 114-102 upset in Brooklyn.  Now, it’s revenge time for the Nets, who will clearly be the more motivated team in the rematch. 

There’s no question the Nets are simply the better team.  They are 8-14 on the season compared to 5-17 for Atlanta.  The telling stat is that Brooklyn is 14-8 ATS in 22 games this year, including 8-4 ATS in road games.  This team has been undervalued all season, and they should not be underdogs here after being 4.5-point home favorites against the Hawks on Saturday. 

The Nets are 41-22 ATS in their last 63 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Hawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record are 78-45 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Monday. 

20* Pelicans/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 108-114 in Utah last night.  And now they will be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who left the Utah game with an ankle injury and is doubtful tonight. 

The Blazers will be focused after losing 91-103 at home to Milwaukee on Thursday.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They are 100% healthy now, which is a big reason they’ve gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall coming in. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 home meetings with the Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Portland. 

The Pelicans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on no rest.  New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games.  The Pelicans are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games following two or more consecutive overs.  They are losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* T’Wolves/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and five of their last six overall, with coincidentally their lone win coming 108-91 over Golden State as 5-point dogs.  They can turn it on when they want to. 

I certainly think the Thunder will turn it on tonight considering their will be out for revenge from two losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves already this season.  They lost at the buzzer 113-115 at home to Minnesota on October 22nd and 116-119 at Minnesota on October 27th.  They haven’t forgotten and will be wanting to avenge those two heartbreakers. 

The Timberwolves have certainly been overvalued here of late.  They have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  A lot of that probably has to do with fatigue as they haven’t had two straight days off since November 9-10, and they will be playing their 12th game in 21 days here tonight. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will be playing just its 2nd game in 6 days here.  Plays on favorites revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 144-90 (61.5%) ATS since 1996.  Minnesota is 2-11 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Thunder Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge against the Indiana Pacers from their 104-107 road loss at Indiana on November 24th one week ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around and should have no problem winning and covering. 

Since that loss, the Raptors have absolutely obliterated their two opponents.  They won 112-78 in Atlanta and 126-113 at home against Charlotte.  And the Raptors will be rested and ready to go now as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here, and they are coming off a 97-118 loss in Houston on Wednesday night.  The Pacers could be without one of their best players in forward Myles Turner, who is questionable with a knee injury. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto has won its last two home meetings with Indiana by 11 and 25 points.  The Pacers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3 

Quietly, the Portland Trail Blazers have gotten 100% healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, which is impressive when you consider they played six of those nine games on the road. 

Now they’ve had two days off since winning 103-91 in New York on Monday.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and happy to be back at home for the first time since November 18th.  The Blazers have a huge home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites here against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

This is a Bucks team that is not healthy right now and not playing well.  The Bucks have lost three of their last five with all three losses coming by double-digits to Dallas (79-111), Washington (88-99) and Utah (108-121).  Their only two wins during this stretch came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Phoenix and Sacramento. 

The Blazers will want revenge from their 110-113 loss in Milwaukee on October 21st in their first meeting this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bucks haven’t won back-to-back games against Portland since 2012-13.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only two losses came to Boston (in OT) and San Antonio (by 7 on the road), two of the best teams in the league. 

Their three wins were mighty impressive, too.  They beat Milwaukee 111-79 as 6-point home underdogs.  The upset Memphis 95-94 as 6-point road dogs.  And they crushed Oklahoma City 97-81 as 6-point home dogs.  This is a team we clearly want to be betting on right now. 

Conversely, the Brooklyn Nets are a team we want to be fading due to their injury situation.  The Nets are playing without four of their best players in Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe right now.  Not to mention, DeMarre Carroll is dealing with a respiratory illness.  I see no way they are even competitive tonight. 

The Nets will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and they are just 14-28 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  After upsetting the Warriors 108-91 at home, they clearly had a letdown in losing back-to-back games to the Pistons and Mavericks.  Now they’ve had three days off since losing to Dallas and will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

"I think that the last two games, coming after the Warriors game, we just really haven't gotten going offensively," Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. "In periods of time, we just really haven't gotten going. At some point, and hopefully soon, we can get it going offensively.”

The Thunder should be able to get right against an Orlando Magic team that is 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Magic have rarely been competitive during this skid, losing six times by double-digits.  I think you can chalk up another double-digit loss here tonight.

The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Orlando is 9-22-1 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Denver Nuggets aren't nearly the team they were before with Paul Millsap.  They have missed him quite a bit since he suffered a torn ligament in his left wrist.  They also have two key players in Wilson Chandler and Mason Plumlee questionable for tonight's game against the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are better team with Rudy Gobert, so his loss is big.  However, they have surprised me quite a bit with how well they have played without him.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digits victories.  They beat Orlando 125-85 on the road, and Chicago (110-80) and Milwaukee (121-108) at home.

Utah simply owns Denver in Salt Lake City.  The Jazz are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Nuggets.  The Jazz have won 37 of their past 45 home meetings with the Nuggets overall.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit win.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA at 3-15 on the season.  However, they get a rare opportunity for a win here against another awful team in the Phoenix Suns, who are 7-14 on the season.  I look for the Bulls to take advantage and win this game at home here tonight.

The Bulls will be out for revenge from a 105-113 loss at Phoenix on November 19th just over a week ago.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  The Bulls have played a road-heavy schedule thus far with 11 road games compared to only seven at home.

The Suns have played a home-heavy schedule with 13 home games compared to just eight road games.  Phoenix plays zero defense as it is, especially on the road.  They are giving up 117.2 points per game on the road this season.  The Bulls are giving up just 99.3 points per game at home.

The Suns are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Phoenix is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Suns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as 7-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics tonight.  This team has been flying under the radar all season, going 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their 18 games.  They just continue to get no respect from oddsmakers night in and night out.

Detroit already has impressive upset road wins over the Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder this season.  Now the Pistons are in a great spot here as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days, so they are well-rested and ready to go.  They beat Oklahoma City 99-98 as 8.5-point road dogs in their only other game over the past seven days.

The Boston Celtics are starting to get massive respect from oddsmakers thanks to their 18-1 SU & 16-2-1 ATS run over their past 19 games.  It's time to start fading this team now at hefty price tags like this one.  They now have a target on their back and it will be tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves.

Detroit has played Boston extremely tough on the road lately.  The Pistons are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Boston.  The Pistons haven't lost by more than 7 points at Boston in any of the last 10 makings, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing Detroit pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* Cavs/76ers NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1

Despite being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 11-7 this season, the Philadelphia 76ers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are once again home underdogs here to the Cleveland Cavaliers in what will be a statement game for the 76ers to prove that they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs.

Philadelphia has gone 11-4 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  I has covered six straight coming in.  And now the 76ers are expected to get back star point guard Ben Simmons from an elbow injury tonight.  Star center Joel Embiid is also expected to play through an illness, so the 76ers are at full strength right now aside from Markelle Fultz.

The Cavaliers have been overvalued all season and continue to be.  They are 12-7 SU but just 6-12-1 ATS in their first 17 games.  They are missing three key players in Derrick Rose, Tristan Thompson and Isaiah Thomas, and they just aren't talented enough to win and cover games consistently without these three.  It also doesn't help that the Cavs rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.9 points per 100 possessons.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Philadelphia is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cavs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia.  Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* Clippers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have no business being favored on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Clippers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only win came against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.  They are decimated by injuries as they are without two starters in Patrick Beverly and Danilo Gallinari.

The Kings don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers when playing at home as they still have one of the most udnerrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  That has shown of late.  The Kings are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, pulling off four upsets against Oklahoma City (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, Philadelphia (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs), Portland (86-82) as 7-point dogs and the LA Lakers (113-102) as 1-point dogs.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and playing great basketball.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers.  The wrong team is favored in this one folks as I believe Sacramento wins outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season Wednesday, a 108-91 domination of the Golden State Warriors in a game that they were determined to prove they could contend in the West.  Mission accomplished.  Now they won't have nearly the same fight against the Detroit Pistons tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pistons will have the fight as they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  They have had three days off in between games to get ready for the Thunder having last played on November 20th.  That will be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.

I really like this Pistons team and feel they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  That has proven to be the case as they are 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS, yet nobody is talking about them.  They are still trying to earn their respect, and a win over the Thunder today would go a long ways.  This team has impressive road wins over Golden State and Minnesota already this season.  Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8

The Boston Celtics are in a very tough spot here mentally.  They put a lot into their 16-game winning streak.  But that streak came to an end at Miami on Wednesday.  Now they will suffer a 'hangover' effect from that defeat, and they won't bring the kind of intensity it takes to put Orlando away by 8-plus points tonight.

The Magic will be highly motivated for a victory after losing six straight coming in.  Most of those losses were close, and most came against some of the top teams in the NBA like Golden State, Denver, Portland, and Minnesota, all on the road.  They should be hungry to end this skid against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Magic will also be out for revenge from an 88-104 home loss to the Celtics in their first and only meeting on November 5th less than three weeks ago.  Motivation is huge in the NBA, and there's no question in my mind that the Magic will want this game more than the Celtics do tonight, which is half the battle, matchups aside.

Frank Vogel is 29-12 ATS in November road games in all games he has coached.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a tough spot here.  They used a huge second half to come back and beat the Bulls at home last night 103-94.  They outscored the Bulls 61-38 after intermission to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

I think the wrong team is favored here given the situation.  The Kings have been an underrated home team throughout the years, especially here over the past few weeks.  They are 3-1 in their last four home games, pulling the outright upsets over the Thunder (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, the 76ers (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs and the Blazers (86-82) as 7-point dogs.

The Lakers are 7-21 ATS off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in road games versus poor offensive teams who score 98 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Charlotte Hornets are now finally healthy for the first time all season.  It is starting to pay off as they have delivered back-to-back blowout home victories over the Clippers (102-87) and the Timberwolves (118-102).  Now I expect them to get the win and cover at home tonight against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and they haven't had two days off in a row for the entire month of December.  I think this is a tired team right now and they have lost two of their last three coming in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Hornets and Wizards.  Indeed, the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Hornets basically just have to win the game to cover this 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets had Sunday off and will be rested and ready to go after beating the Los Angeles Clippers 102-87 at home on Saturday.  They had lost six in a row prior to that victory, so they should remain motivated here to get things turned around.

Conversely, the Minnesota Timberwolves played Sunday and lost 97-100 at home to the Detroit Pistons.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I think this tough spot makes them a nice 'play against' team here today.

Plays against any team (Minnesota) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games or more on the season are 70-33 ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -5

After a slow start to the season, the Denver Nuggets have played up to their potential of late by going 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 146-114 win over the Pelicans. 

Now, the Nuggets are only being asked to lay 5 points to the struggling Lakers.  And this is a good situation for the Nuggets, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight. 

The Lakers have lost five of their last six coming in, including a 113-122 home loss to the Suns last time out.  They will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  Lonzo Ball has looked like a bust up to this point and has been getting benched in the 4th quarter. 

The Nuggets have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Lakers.  Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Los Angeles.  The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 125 or more points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +5.5

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It's a home-and-home situation between the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards.  Washington beat Miami 102-93 on Wednesday, outscoring the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Now, playing two days later, the Heat will be the team out for revenge, and thus the more motivated squad.  A lot of being successful in the NBA is handicapping motivation, and there's no question the Heat are the team you want tonight given this home-and-home situation.

That was a rare win for the Wizards in this series as the Heat are still 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings, winning outright as underdogs in three of those.  I think they get their revenge and win this game outright, though we'll take the 5.5 points for some added insurance.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Heat are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings in Washington.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  It is coming back to win these road games 102.0 to 100.5 on average.  The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been a completely different team since Eric Bledsoe was inserted into the lineup after being traded from the Suns.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games with him, beating the Spurs 94-87 on the road, and the Lakers (98-90) and Grizzlies (110-103) at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.8 apg) is having an MVP-caliber season, but he wasn't getting much help before Bledsoe (13.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg with Milwaukee) arrived.  Now he has his help with Khris Middleton (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.1 ppg, 4.1 apg) also playing well.

The Detroit Pistons have certainly been one of the most underrated teams up to this point, going 10-3 SU & 9-3-1 ATS through their first 13 games this season.  But they have done most of their damage at home with eight home games compared to five on the road.  And with that early success comes expectations that I don't think they can live up to.  They are getting too much respect now from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Bucks tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has gone 12-3 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  The Bucks are 6-1 straight up in their last seven home meetings with the Pistons.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Cavs/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +2.5

The Charlotte Hornets have had four days off between games having last played on Friday.  They will be rested and ready to go against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  This extra time off has helped get Nic Batum ready for his season debut after missing the first 12 games with an injury.

The Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight.  But all four losses came on the road, and three were by 7 points or less.  The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 111.6 points per game and shooting 47.2% from the floor at home.

They should feast on an overrated Cavaliers team that is just 7-7 SU & 4-9-1 ATS.  The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries as they'll be playing without Isaiah Thomas, Tristan Thompson and Derrick Rose tonight.  But the biggest problem for the Cavs is they don't play defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up a ridiculous 111.1 points per 100 possessions.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS as a favorite this season.  Charlotte is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -1

The Miami Heat will be happy to be back home following a tough six-game road trip.  They went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS on the trip with their three losses coming to Denver (by 1), Detroit (by 9) and Golden State.  They upset the Clippers and Jazz and thumped the Suns.

Normally I don't like backing teams off a long trip like that in their first game back home, but I think we are safe to do it here tonight.  That's because Miami has had two days off since losing to the Pistons on Sunday.  It has given them time to take care of their priorities at home, and they should come out 100% focused against the Wizards tonight.

I think the Wizards are getting too much love from oddsmakers right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they have played four straight and six of their last seven at home, and the three straight wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NBA in the Lakers, Hawks and Kings.  Not to mention, they were upset by another bad team in the Mavs 99-113 as 9.5-point favorites prior to the winning streak.

The Heat simply own the Wizards.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Washington.  They were actually underdogs in three of those contests and a 1-point favorite in another.  They clearly have the Wizards figured out.  And I think their biggest advantage is the fact that they have a deep bench, while the Wizards have basically no bench, and that always seems to get overlooked.

Plays against any team (WASHINGTON) - after three consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This trend makes a lot of sense and shows there is value fading teams off three consecutive covers as a favorite like the Wizards are right now.  Take the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +7.5

The Boston Celtics are way overvalued right now and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  The Celtics have won 12 straight since losing their first two games of the season, going 10-1-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public is all of this team now, and they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road to a pesky Brooklyn Nets team.

Kyrie Irving missed last game due to injury and could miss this one as well.  I also think it's a great situation to face the Celtics here.  They are coming off a huge 95-94 upset win over Toronto without Irving, and now they have an even bigger game on deck at home against Golden State Thursday night.  This is a classic sandwich spot, and I don't expect them to be 100% focused for this one like they have been up to this point.

The Nets have quietly gone 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  They pulled off road upset wins over Phoenix and Portland, only lost on the road to Denver by 8 as 12.5-point dogs, and barely failed to cover as 7-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Utah.  This team has been highly competitive this season and should continue being undervalued.

Plays against favorites (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 73-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games, and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

We could look back to the Eric Bledsoe trade and realize the Milwaukee Bucks got an absolute steal.  Bledsoe wore out his welcome in Phoenix, but he has come back determined and motivated to show that he is still a great player in this league.  The Bucks will continue getting the best out of him this season.

In Bledsoe's two games with the Bucks, they won 94-87 at San Antonio as 4.5-point dogs, and topped the Lakers 98-90 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 3.5 points here at home to the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think this is a nice discount as the Bucks are the better team and should roll.

The Grizzlies took the league by surprise in the first couple weeks in winning five of their first six.  But now the Grizzlies have gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games.  They have been on the road for a long time as this will be their 5th straight road games following a 96-111 loss in Houston on Saturday.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Bucks Monday.

20* T'Wolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11

The Minnesota Timberwolves are catching too many points on the road to the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly scoop up the value here and take the double-digits in a game that will likely go down to the wire.

The Timberwolves are improving rapidly.  It was always going to take some time to implement the new faces in Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, but it appears the Timberwolves have figured it out.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they come in fresh and ready to go off two days' rest after last playing on Sunday in a 112-94 win over Charlotte.

The Warriors were way overvalued to start the season, going 1-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have since gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four, and the betting public is being quick to back them once again.  They have been way overvalued at home, going 1-4 ATS in home games this season with two outright losses to Houston and Detroit.

Minnesota is 20-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks just can't get any respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming to the Rockets.  They have gone on the road and beaten the Cavs by 19, while also beating the Nets by 21, Nuggets by 6, Suns by 13 and the Pacers by 7 at home.

Now the Knicks find themselves as home underdogs once again to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a bad matchup for the Hornets, who now have Dwight Howard at center.  Howard isn't going to be able to guard Kristaps Porzingis, who had games of 38, 37 and 40 points all in the span of a week during this stretch.

The Tim Hardaway contract looks good now as he's averaging 16.2 points per game.  Getting Enes Kanter in the Carmelo Anthony trade was also a nice coup.  He is averaging 13.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.  And Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG, 41.2% 3-pointers) remains an underrated shooting guard.  The PG-by-committee is working out just fine as well.  This is an underrated lineup.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS on the season.  They have clearly been overvalued up to this point, and the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That makes this the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Mavs in the immediate future.

The Washington Wizards are 5-4 this season but just 4-5 ATS.  And three of their five wins came by 5 points or less, so they have only won two games by double-digits.  They aren't blowing teams out on the regular, and I certainly want to fade them in this spot.

The Wizards are overvalued off their 107-96 win in Toronto as 6.5-point dogs on Sunday.  They have now played the Cavs and Raptors in back-to-back games, two of the best teams in the East.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for the Mavericks now tonight.

John Wall is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the Toronto game.  It would be smart of Scott Brooks to give him another day off here against a team like the Mavericks, so while he is questionable it would surprise me if he plays.

The Mavs are in a stretch right now where they will be playing just one game in a seven-day stretch.  They have gotten extra practice time after a brutal schedule to start the season with three back-to-backs already.  That also makes them a 'buy on' team going forward.

"We haven't had a practice in a long time because of the way the schedule has fallen," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "That's a very important practice for us, to shore some things up, to work on avoiding the catastrophic turnovers, do a better job of rebounding the ball, those kinds of things."

The Mavericks are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Wizards.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Washington is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets fit a couple of situations that I like tonight against the Phoenix Suns.  The main reason for the pick is that this is a revenge game.  Brooklyn lost to Phoenix 114-122 at home on October 31st less than a week ago.  So the Nets will be out for revenge and should get it tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot here.  They are coming off a five-game road trip, and I usually like fading teams in that first game back home following a long trip.  Adding to the tough spot for the Suns is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 95-112 in San Antonio last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for Phoenix.

Meanwhile, the Nets have had two days' rest to get ready for the Suns after last playing on Friday.  So they will be the fresher team.  The Suns had a nice run after making the head coaching change with five straight covers, but their bubble has been burst in their last two with a 13-point loss to the Knicks and that 17-point loss to the Spurs.

Brooklyn is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot here.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back after pulling off the 113-104 upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday.  They don't have to travel as they will face the Lakers in Staples Center, but I guarantee Memphis players went out and partied last night in Los Angeles and won't be focused for Game 2 of this back-to-back.

The Grizzlies are already banged up with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol nursing injuries.  Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green are also out with injuries.  Don't be surprised if they play this situation cautiously and at least limit the minutes of both Gasol and Conley.

The Lakers are vastly improved this season.  They have won two of their last three while going 3-0 ATS.  They beat the Pistons 113-93 and the Nets 124-112 at home.  Their only loss came 110-113 in Portland as 6.5-point dogs.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, especially offensively.

The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Grizzlies are 1-5-3 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the Lakers Sunday.