Sports Picks & Predictions

NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-27-15	New Orleans Pelicans +10 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	95-111	Loss	-109	12 h 31 m	Show
20* Pelicans/Warriors 2015 NBA Season Opener on New Orleans +10 The New Orleans Pelicans are going to want revenge on the Golden State Warriors from getting swept in the playoffs last year. I look for them to give the Warriors all they want in the season opener and to easily cover this double-digit spread, possibly pulling off the upset. The Warriors will receive their championship rings tonight. While Steve Kerr will be present, he won't be coaching the team due to his back. Assistant coach Luke Walton will be taking his place on the sidelines. I don't expect the team to respond to Walton like they would to Kerr early in the season. The ceremony will be a distraction to these players, too. Alvin Gentry, who was the Warriors' assistant coach last year, is now the head coach of the Pelicans. If there's anybody who would know how to slow down the Warriors, it's certainly Gentry. He will have the Pelicans prepared to take down the defending champs in this one. New Orleans is certainly a team on the rise. It has arguably the best player in the NBA in Anthony Davis, who averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and shot 54.0 percent against the Warriors in the playoffs last year. Eric Gordon was second in the NBA in 3-point shooting last year at 44.8 percent. Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are healthy to open the season, and they added veterans Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to help bolster the roster. The Pelicans are 28-14 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Golden State. Each of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less, including four by 10 or fewer. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.
06-11-15	Golden State Warriors -2.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	103-82	Win	100	11 h 27 m	Show
20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5 Down 2-1 heading into Game 4, the Golden State Warriors know that they need a victory or this series is likely over. I fully expect them to get it. The first three games could have gone either way as all three were within five points at the end of regulation. Draymond Green said it best yesterday in a press conference. His team needs to play harder and with a sense of urgency, and I believe you will see that from the Warriors in Game 4 after seemingly losing the battle to get every loose ball in Game 3. They will come to play tonight. The Cavaliers being up 2-1 is certainly a surprise to most. Obviously, they are going to show up again in Game 4, but I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency as much as they have the past two games, and as much as the Warriors will be tonight. The Warriors were down 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the conference semifinals. It was the same situation as this as they lost Game 2 and Game 3. They went on to win the next three games in blowout fashion. The Grizzlies are a similar physical team to the Cavaliers, and the Warriors made the proper adjustments in that series, and I believe they will in this series as well. Golden State is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons. The Warriors are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss. Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Thursday.
06-09-15	Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	91-96	Loss	-107	9 h 48 m	Show
20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -1.5 The Golden State Warriors have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series. They may have started to believe the hype that this series was over due to the injuries to the Cavaliers coming into Game 2. That was a big reason I was on Cleveland last game, but I'm going with the Warriors in Game 3. They will be the ones who come out and play with a sense of urgency tonight that they haven't played with yet in this series. Meanwhile, there's no way the Cavs can match the effort they played with on Sunday. Stephen Curry and the rest of the Warriors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2. They shot just 39.8% from the field with Curry going 5-for-23. Steve Kerr will make the proper adjustments, and I look for the Warriors to get back to playing their up-tempo ways that have made them the best offensive team in the league all season. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996. The Warriors are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss. The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Tuesday.
06-07-15	Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	95-93	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +8 The Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 represent my favorite play of the entire NBA postseason up to this point. This is a must-win game for them as they cannot afford to go back to Cleveland down 0-2 if they want to win this series. There is some serious value in getting the Cavs as 8-point underdogs here. They were only 6-point dogs in Game 1 and forced overtime. Now, we are getting an extra two points with them only because Kyrie Irving is out for the series after getting injured in Game 1. Well, the Cavaliers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. They have heard the noise through the media that this series is over because Irving is out. You can bet that Lebron James and company will be using that noise as motivation in Game 2 here tonight. Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1996. The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.
06-04-15	Cleveland Cavaliers +6 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	100-108	Loss	-105	10 h 6 m	Show
20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6 The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting little respect heading into this series. They are +200 underdogs to win the series, and 6-point underdogs in Game 1. I believe the value is clearly with the Cavaliers in this one. While I agree with the Warriors being favored in Game 1 and for the series, I just feel that this number is too big. The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season, but they don't have a single player on their 15-man roster that has ever been to the NBA Finals. Nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1. The Cavaliers have a tremendous leader in Lebron James who will be going to his 5th straight NBA Finals. His confidence and temperament will rub off on his teammates in Game 1. While the Cavs did get to go through an easy Eastern Conference to get here, you cannot ignore the fact that they are 46-11 since mid-January. They have won seven straight playoff games over the Bulls and Hawks, which is no small feat, either. Cleveland is 24-10 ATS off five straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less. It has morphed into an elite defensive team in these playoffs. Holding the Hawks to less than 42% shooting for four straight games is mighty impressive. The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday.
05-26-15	Atlanta Hawks +7.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	88-118	Loss	-109	9 h 43 m	Show
20* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5 The Atlanta Hawks showed some fight in Game 3 and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to overtime. They aren't going to give in in Game 4, and I like their chances of staying within 7.5 points of the Cavs in this elimination game. Kevin Love is obviously out, but Kyrie Irving missed last game and is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury. The Cavs would be wise to let him rest another game considering they are up 3-0 in this series. What really could hurt the Cavaliers is that Lebron James is as sore as he's been all season. "I'm feeling all right," he said, forcing a smile that showed he wasn't being entirely truthful. "I've been better, but I've been worse. I think I've been worse." Atlanta is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season. It is coming back to win by an average of 16.2 points per game in this spot. The Hawks are also 15-3 ATS when playing with double revenge against an opponent this season. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.
05-25-15	Golden State Warriors -4.5 v. Houston Rockets	Top	115-128	Loss	-115	9 h 30 m	Show
20* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5 This series is over. The Golden State Warriors made a statement with a 35-point win in Game 3. The Rockets also made a statement that they were going to pack it in. With no motivation now, I look for the Rockets to get blown out again in Game 4. The Warriors showed that they were vulnerable in losing back-to-back games to Memphis. However, they have responded in a big way since. They have now won six straight playoff games with four of those victories coming by 13 points or more. They are proving that they are the best team in the NBA and that their regular season success was no joke. Golden State is 24-8 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Golden State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston. Bet the Warriors Monday.
05-24-15	Atlanta Hawks +9.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	111-114	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
20* Hawks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +9.5 The Atlanta Hawks are showing solid value as big road underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3. Everyone is pretty much looking forward to a Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals, but I guarantee the Hawks have different ideas even after losing the first two games of this series. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Atlanta is 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge, two straight losses vs. opponent this season. While everyone is counting them out, I believe the Hawks have other plans tonight. Bet Atlanta in Game 3 Sunday.
05-23-15	Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets	Top	115-80	Win	100	10 h 55 m	Show
20* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on Golden State PK The Golden State Warriors smell blood in the water. They are fortunate to be up 2-0 in this series after winning the first two games at home by a combined five points. They certainly feel like there's no pressure on them now and can come out and play freely tonight. The Rockets are absolutely devastated. They had their chances to win the first two games, and now they know that this series is all but over and it's just not their time. I look for a lackluster effort from them tonight after blowing the first two games down the stretch. Plays on road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Warriors Saturday.
05-22-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1	Top	94-82	Loss	-105	9 h 32 m	Show
20* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1 The Atlanta Hawks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight. They cannot afford to fall down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland. I look for them to get the job done at home tonight and to even this series at one game apiece. The Cavaliers got an unworldly performance out of J.R. Smith in Game 1 that they're not going to get again. He scored a career playoff high 28 points in Game 1, connecting on eight 3-pointers. He single-handedly won the opener for them. Atlanta really did not play well in Game 1, which was a rarity for the Hawks at home. They still had their chances in an 88-97 loss, but Smith's surge proved to be too much. The Hawks are 40-8 at home this season, so I just cannot foresee them losing back-to-back games on their home floor. The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing Atlanta. Bet the Hawks Friday.
05-19-15	Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10		106-110	Loss	-108	10 h 35 m	Show
15* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -10 The Houston Rockets have had only one day of rest following their Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. They haven't had ample time to prepare for Golden State, and they will be at a disadvantage because of it. Even though this is the Western Conference Finals, I believe this is a letdown spot for the Rockets. They came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers last series, and it's only human nature for them to take a little extra time to celebrate and to not come out with their best effort in Game 1. Golden State, meanwhile, has had three days off since putting away Memphis 108-95 on the road in Game 6. The Warriors have been fast starters in their two series. They beat the Pelicans 106-99 in Game 1 of their first series in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They also beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series. Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest. These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Golden State. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.
05-17-15	Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets	Top	100-113	Loss	-110	4 h 22 m	Show
20* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2 After giving away Game 6, many have counted out the Los Angeles Clippers. However, the oddsmakers believe they'll bounce back and come up clutch in Game 7 by listing them as the favorite, and I couldn't agree more. Doc Rivers is one of the best head coaches in the league. He will get his players to respond in a big way today, just as he did in the first round when the Clippers trailed the Spurs 3-2 and had to win Game 6 on the road to extend the series. They obviously went on to win Game 7 at home as well. Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-14 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. Los Angeles is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Bet the Clippers Sunday.
05-14-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -2	Top	94-73	Loss	-106	9 h 37 m	Show
20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2 Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6. I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers. Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively. They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages. Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season. The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season. The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Bet the Bulls Thursday.
05-13-15	Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks -7.5	Top	81-82	Loss	-107	9 h 31 m	Show
20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5 The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage. I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2. The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury. The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer. Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose. They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points. They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5. In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here. Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season. The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.
05-12-15	Chicago Bulls +5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	101-106	Push	0	7 h 15 m	Show
20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5 The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series. They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84. I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight. I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series. Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%. Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996. Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season. The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
05-11-15	Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Washington Wizards		106-101	Win	100	8 h 0 m	Show
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5 Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4. They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well. Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4. Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose. Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996. The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season. These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta. Take the Hawks in Game 4.
05-09-15	Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Washington Wizards	Top	101-103	Loss	-102	7 h 56 m	Show
20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5 I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards. They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series. Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss. It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory. I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season. As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall. Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points. But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3. Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss. The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.
05-08-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5	Top	96-99	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5 The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3. I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love. They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series. The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again. "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense." Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season. The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season. Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems. It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more. These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500. This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs. Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.
05-06-15	Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5	Top	109-115	Loss	-107	11 h 41 m	Show
25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -6.5 The Houston Rockets came out flat in Game 1. They thought they could just show up and win against a Clippers team that was playing without its best player in Chris Paul. The Rockets won't make the same mistake again. Look for them to come out with their most inspired effort of the season in Game 2. Paul is expected to sit again as he's listed as doubtful. It's a smart move by Doc Rivers, who has to be satisfied with getting home-court advantage after stealing Game 1. The Clippers aren't about to play as well as they did without Paul again. This play fits into one of my favorite playoff systems. It's part of the zig-zag theory where you play on the team that lost the last game. This system tells us to play on a home favorite that lost the last game by 10 points or more with a winning percentage from .600 to .750 against a team with better than a .500 record. This system is 55-30-2 (64.7%) ATS in its last 87 tries. Los Angeles is 4-12 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games this season. Houston 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite this year. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
05-05-15	Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks -6	Top	90-106	Win	100	9 h 42 m	Show
20* Wizards/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -6 The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs up to this point. They won home-court advantage by stealing Game 1, and now I expect them to let up a little, while Atlanta puts the foot on the gas in Game 2 in essentially a must-win game. The Hawks uncharacteristically missed a ton of wide open shots that they normally make in Game 1, yet they still almost won. They shot just 37.8% from the field and lost 98-104. As good as this team is at shooting the ball, I expect a much sharper performance in Game 2, which will lead to a win by 7-plus points to cover this spread. Washington has some serious injury issues right now. Bradley Beal severely sprained his ankle in Game 1, and while he's expected to play through the pain in Game 2, he clearly won't be effective. John Wall also suffered a hand injury from a hard fall to the floor. If this was the regular season, both players would likely be out. Give them credit for gutting it out, but the Wizards simply aren't the same team without Wall and Beal at 100%. Washington is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season. Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season. They are coming back to win 103.8 to 95.4 on average in this spot. Bet the Hawks in Game 2 Tuesday.
05-03-15	Washington Wizards +5 v. Atlanta Hawks		104-98	Win	100	2 h 29 m	Show
15* Wizards/Hawks Game 1 Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5 The Washington Wizards showed me enough in their first series to know that they are real contenders in the Eastern Conference playoffs. I look for them to give the Hawks a run for their money tonight and to likely steal Game 1. The Wizards' four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors was rarely even close as all four games they won by 7 or more points. The Atlanta Hawks were much more vulnerable in their series, needing six games to get by eighth-seeded Brooklyn with three of their wins going down to the wire. Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road playoff games. Atlanta is 4-18 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. Washington is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. The Wizards are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.
05-01-15	Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets	Top	111-87	Win	100	16 h 56 m	Show
20* Hawks/Nets Game 6 Line Mistake on Atlanta -3.5 The Atlanta Hawks have toyed around with the Brooklyn Nets for long enough. This series ends tonight and I'll back the Hawks laying a small number on the road. The Hawks swept the Nets during the regular season, but this has been a much feistier series. The Nets are getting some respect from the books because they have hung around, but that all changes tonight. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996. The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. That's the only trend that backs the Hawks, but tonight they show out like they are champs in the East. It's time to separate themselves from the pack. Bet the Hawks Friday.
04-30-15	Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs	Top	102-96	Win	100	12 h 15 m	Show
20* Clippers/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5 The road team has won three of the last four meetings in this series. I don't expect the Clippers to go out without a fight tonight. They have arguably been the better team in this series as they've lost a couple nail-biters in Game 2 and Game 5. Los Angeles came up big with a 114-105 road win at San Antonio in Game 4. It was essentially playing for its season in that game, and it is playing for its season tonight as well. This core group of players has been together long enough to handle this kind of pressure-packed situation. The Clippers have actually been playing their best basketball on the road here of late. In fact, they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games overall. They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. Doc Rivers will rally the troops tonight and have them coming back with an inspired effort. Bet the Clippers in Game 6 Thursday.
04-29-15	Portland Trailblazers +6 v. Memphis Grizzlies	Top	93-99	Push	0	10 h 28 m	Show
20* Blazers/Grizzlies Game 5 No-Brainer on Portland +6 The Portland Trail Blazers got a huge break when Memphis point guard Mike Conley suffered a facial fracture in Game 3. His defense on Damian Lillard in the first three games was as big a reason as any that the Grizzlies were up 3-0. Without Conley in Game 4, the Blazers took advantage. They won 99-92 behind a huge game from Lillard. After scoring just 32 total points on 10-of-37 shooting in his first two games at Memphis, Lillard scored 22 points with nine assists in Game 3, and then a game-high 32 points in the Game 4 win. I really think that the Blazers believe they can get back into this series now, and I look for them to not only to cover this 6-point spread at Memphis in Game 5, but to likely win this game outright. C.J. McCollum has been huge too, scoring 44 points in the past two games. Memphis is 19-42 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons. This series is about to get interesting with the Blazers likely to take this game tonight. Bet Portland in Game 5 Wednesday.
04-28-15	San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2	Top	111-107	Loss	-105	11 h 26 m	Show
20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 The Los Angeles Clippers showed a lot of guts by going into San Antonio and winning Game 4 114-105 to keep their season alive. Now that they've regained home-court advantage, I expect them to hold onto it with a victory in Game 5 tonight. The Clippers have been playing as well as anyone over the past couple months. They are now 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and arguably should be up 3-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime. They are simply the better team this year, and their resiliency shown in Game 4 will give them a lot of confidence going forward. Los Angeles is 31-12 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game. San Antonio has been vulnerable on the road this year with a mediocre 23-20 record away from home. The Clippers have now won four of their last six meetings with the Spurs this season, showing that they are better than the defending champs. The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 24-13 ATS off two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season. Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.
04-26-15	Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs	Top	114-105	Win	100	7 h 30 m	Show
25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 The Los Angeles Clippers know that this is a must-win game to avoid falling behind the defending champion Spurs 3-1. I look for them to give their best effort tonight in Game 4 and likely pull off the upset, though I'll take the points for some added insurance. There is clearly some value here as the Clippers were only 4.5-point dogs in Game 3, and now 6.5-point dogs in Game 4. They couldn't have played any worse in Game 3, shooting 34.1% while allowing 52.6% shooting. That's not going to happen again. That performance has also helped create some line value here. The betting public is big on "what have you done lately", which creates overreactions in lines. I believe this is a classic overreaction. Plays on road underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. They have only lost one of their last 19 games by more than 4 points, making for an 18-1 system backing them pertaining to today's 6.5-point spread. Bet the Clippers Sunday.
04-25-15	Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +7	Top	109-98	Loss	-105	11 h 57 m	Show
20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +7 The Golden State Warriors are 0-3 ATS in this series and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. They continue to be overvalued because they are the No. 1 team in the Western Conference and have the best record in the NBA. Once again, they are overvalued as 7-point favorites in Game 4. The New Orleans Pelicans are such a young team that they don't know any better. I would expect an older team to fold in this situation, but the young Pelicans play with a lot of pride, and they don't want to get swept 4-0. They have proven they can play with Golden State, and they want to show it with a victory in Game 4. New Orleans played great down the stretch just to get into the postseason, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games like this one is. It has hung with Golden State in all three games thus far as all three losses came by 10 points or less, including the OT home loss in Game 3. New Orleans is 28-14 at home this season. Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. The Pelicans are 28-13 ATS as underdogs this season. The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing New Orleans. Bet the Pelicans Saturday.
04-24-15	Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs		73-100	Loss	-107	13 h 27 m	Show
15* Clippers/Spurs ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5 The Los Angeles Clippers are steaming mad over the way they lost Game 2 in overtime. They had it all but won in the end, and now I look for them to show some real grit in Game 3 to come back and regain home-court advantage in this series. The Spurs are now 8-0 when trailing 1-0 in a first-round series. They showed their mental toughness in Game 2, but now they are in rough shape after playing an overtime game. That's especially the case since they may be short-handed with Tony Parker questionable after leaving Game 2 with an injury. The Clippers are still playing as well as anyone right now with a 15-2 record in their last 17 games overall. Both of their losses came by exactly 4 points to San Antonio and Golden State. In fact, the Clippers haven't lost a game by more than 4 points in any of their last 18 contests. That makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing Los Angeles pertaining to tonight's 4.5-point spread. Take the Clippers Friday.
04-23-15	Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +5	Top	123-119	Win	100	12 h 41 m	Show
20* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +5 I've backed the New Orleans Pelicans with success in both Game 1 and Game 2. I'll back them again in Game 3 for many of the same reasons, and also a few more. They are simply showing too good of value to pass up as 5-point underdogs. The Pelicans closed out the regular season playing their best basketball of the season. They went 8-3 over their final 11 games just to get into the postseason, which included home wins over both the Spurs and Warriors. Then, they played the Warriors tough on the road in the first two games, losing by 7 & 10 points. The Warriors are simply overvalued in the early going in the playoffs because they had the best record in the NBA. The #1 team is usually overvalued against the #8 team, and that has been the case in 2015 as the #8 seeds are now 4-0 ATS. Golden State just cannot live up to the lofty expectations set forth from the oddsmakers and betting public. New Orleans has been a dominant home team this season. It has gone 28-13 on its home floor with a 24-16-1 ATS record to boot. It is finally healthy, which is why it is living up to its potential here down the stretch. With the series on the line in Game 3, I look for the Pelicans to respond in front of their raucous home crowd tonight. The Pelicans are 27-13 ATS as underdogs this season, including 10-2 ATS as home underdogs. New Orleans is 19-6 ATS off a road loss this season, and 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 five home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Pacific Division foes. These last four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing New Orleans. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
04-22-15	Brooklyn Nets +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks	Top	91-96	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 The Brooklyn Nets gave the Atlanta Hawks a tougher fight than expected in Game 1 in a 92-99 loss as 11-point underdogs. I look for them to play even tougher tonight as they look to avoid falling to 0-2 in this series and to easily cover this 9.5-point spread. The Nets have played their best basketball down the stretch in going 13-7 in their last 20 games overall. They are finally healthy, and Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson have all stepped up their games. This team is better than their overall record would indicate even though they snuck in as the No. 8 seed. The Atlanta Hawks remain overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference. Well, they aren't as strong of a team now as they were before because their two starting big men are banged up right now in Paul Millsap and Al Horford. Both are expected to play, but both are hampered by injuries. Brooklyn is 24-8 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season. The Hawks are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 when playing on two days' rest. The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
04-20-15	New Orleans Pelicans +12.5 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	87-97	Win	100	11 h 20 m	Show
20* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +12.5 The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued tonight as 12.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans. They had the best record in the NBA this season, and as a result they came into the playoffs getting too much respect from the betting public and oddsmakers. Yes, the Warriors could have easily covered the 12-point spread in Game 1 as they led by double-digits throughout, but they weren't able to in a 106-99 win. Now, the Pelicans will be playing even more desperate basketball tonight in Game 2 to try and even the series. New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season here of late. It has gone 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games to get into the playoffs. It has even beaten the likes of San Antonio and Golden State during this stretch. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. New Orleans is 26-13 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pelicans are 16-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season. New Orleans is 18-6 ATS off a road loss this year. The Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Bet the Pelicans Monday.
04-19-15	San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +1		92-107	Win	100	11 h 24 m	Show
15* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1 The Los Angeles Angels Clippers are showing great value as home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of this series. I'll take them at a discount in a game I fully expect them to win outright. The Clippers are playing as well as anyone entering the playoffs. They have gone 7-0 in their last seven games and 14-1 in their last 15 games overall. They are getting no love today, which will only fuel their fire against the defending champs. I actually believe the Spurs come into the playoffs deflated because they had the No. 2 seed wrapped up. Instead, they lost their last game of the season to fall to the No. 6 seed and a road series against the Clips. San Antonio is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996. Take the Clippers Sunday.
04-19-15	Brooklyn Nets +10.5 v. Atlanta Hawks	Top	92-99	Win	100	6 h 14 m	Show
20* NBA Sunday Playoffs Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +10.5 The Atlanta Hawks come into the playoffs way overvalued. Yes, they're the No. 1 seed, but they are far from the best team in the postseason. They're being treated like an elite team with this double-digit spread. The Nets earned their way into the playoffs with a 101-88 win over Orlando in the season finale. They obviously aren't as good as they expected to be with that payroll, but when it matters, they have the players who can get it done in the playoffs. The Hawks beat the Nets 4-0 during the regular season. These games weren't close either. That has the betting public rolling the Hawks, but it also has provided us with great line value to go against the public and take the double-digit points. Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season. The Nets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Nets Sunday.
04-15-15	San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Pelicans +5.5	Top	103-108	Win	100	9 h 50 m	Show
20* Spurs/Pelicans NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New Orleans +5.5 The New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs both have a lot to play for tonight. A win gets New Orleans in the playoffs, while a win for San Antonio gets it the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. So, both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight. However, there's no question that the Spurs are the one receiving all of the public action in this one because they have won 11 straight while going 9-2 ATS in the process. That has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the Pelicans here. New Orleans has been great at home, going 27-13 SU & 23-16-1 ATS this season. It has won four straight home games coming in with blowout victories over Phoenix (by 15), Minnesota (by 22) and Sacramento (by 14). Most impressive was its 103-100 home win over Golden State as 4.5-point dogs during this stretch. The Pelicans have played the Spurs very tough this season. In fact, they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with San Antonio. Their only loss came by a final of 93-95 (OT) on the road. They won 97-90 at on on December 26th and 100-99 on the road on November 8th. There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well. The Spurs are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans. New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. San Antonio is 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS following a game with 15 or less assists this season. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread this season. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.
04-14-15	Toronto Raptors -2 v. Boston Celtics		93-95	Loss	-105	8 h 53 m	Show
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2 The Boston Celtics just clinched a playoff spot with their 117-78 win at Miami on Sunday. They literally have nothing to play for now, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a big letdown tonight after realizing that they will be playing in the postseason. The Toronto Raptors still have plenty to play for. They are just a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. They control their own destiny because if they win out, they will be the No. 3 seed. That would have them playing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round. Toronto has been fighting down the stretch, going 6-2 in its last eight games overall, including three straight road victories at Charlotte, Orlando and Miami coming in. Its only two losses have come by a combined 6 points, which is how close it is to being 8-0 during this stretch. I also like the fact that the Raptors are coming in on two days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. With nothing to play for, I don't expect the Celtics to show up tonight. Roll with the Raptors Tuesday.
04-13-15	New York Knicks +14.5 v. Atlanta Hawks		112-108	Win	100	8 h 11 m	Show
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14.5 The New York Knicks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. As a result, the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them here down the stretch, which has created a ton of line value to back them. That's the case again tonight folks. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They only lost to Brooklyn by 2 as 9.5-point dogs, beat Philadelphia by 10 as 1-point dogs, only lost to Milwaukee by 8 as 11-point dogs, and beat Orlando by 1 as 11-point dogs. They are clearly playing hard here down the stretch. Atlanta literally has nothing to play for and would be wise to rest its starters heading into the playoffs. It lost 99-108 at Washington yesterday, and you can bet it's not going to overwork its starters in this second of a back-to-back situation. Paul Millsap is out with a shoulder injury to boot. Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996. The Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Atlanta. Take the Knicks Monday.
04-13-15	Detroit Pistons +6.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	97-109	Loss	-102	8 h 41 m	Show
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in a win over Milwaukee on April 8th. Since that victory, they have clearly shut it down. They weren't interested in their back-to-back losses to Boston by finals of 90-99 and 78-117, and they won't be interested in this game, either. The Detroit Pistons are playing out their season and would love to beat Cleveland here to kind of put a cherry on top of a successful second half. The Pistons are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, which includes a blowout 116-77 win over Charlotte yesterday. Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996. Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 60-30 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest. Bet the Pistons Monday.
04-12-15	Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -7.5	Top	77-116	Win	100	5 h 38 m	Show
20* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -7.5 The Charlotte Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. With that realization, the Hornets won't show up at all today. That's why I'll lay the points with the Pistons at home in this one. Without question, the Pistons are finishing out their season. They have gone a ridiculous 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Stan Van Gundy has this team playing some of their best ball of the season. The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall. They lost by 5 at Miami, by 18 at home to Toronto, and by 24 at Atlanta. If that's not evidence that they have quit I don't know that is. They won't show up today either. Detroit is 15-5 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season. Charlotte is 33-59 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less since 1996. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Bet the Pistons Sunday.
04-11-15	Utah Jazz +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers	Top	111-105	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz +7 The Portland Trail Blazers have absolutely nothing to play for right now. They are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but will be playing their opening series on the road due to being two games back of the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers. Portland had a golden chance to move up in the standings on Thursday at Golden State, but struggled down the stretch in a 105-116 loss. That loss was probably the last straw for this team as now they'll be more concerned with getting rested heading into the playoffs than anything. That's evident by the fact that they are expected to rest their best player in LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Aaron Afflalo injured his shoulder against the Warriors and is out 1-2 weeks. Portland was already without Wesley Matthews and Dorell Wright, so it is short-handed tonight to say the least. What you have to love about the Utah Jazz is just how they have continued to lay it on the line every night despite being out of playoff contention. They are 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an 88-89 loss to Memphis last night. Their two losses in their last three games have come by a combined 3 points. Utah is 1-2 against Portland this season, but its two losses have come by a combined 4 points, while its win came by 16. The Jazz are 19-3 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent this season. Utah is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season. The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest. Bet the Jazz Saturday.
04-10-15	Boston Celtics +6 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	99-90	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6 The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today. They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record. They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon. The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests. They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10. They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time. Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers. They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight. I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all. Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year. Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season. The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the Celtics Friday.
04-09-15	Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	105-116	Loss	-105	13 h 32 m	Show
20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5 The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for. They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way. That has been evident in their last couple games. Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months. It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents. It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight. The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round. They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position. They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. "We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two." That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs. "We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard. That sounds like a guy determined to get home court. The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two. Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes. The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
04-08-15	Minnesota Timberwolves +17 v. Portland Trail Blazers		91-116	Loss	-105	12 h 53 m	Show
15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17 This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover. They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season. They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed. Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too. LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday. While both are expected to return, they are still banged up. Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season. Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night. That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go. They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings. The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread. Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.
04-08-15	Chicago Bulls v. Orlando Magic +8		103-105	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8 The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition. They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams. I look for that trend to continue tonight. The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit. They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs. Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage. Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season. It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs. The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series. Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well. The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Take the Magic Wednesday.
04-07-15	San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder +7		113-88	Loss	-115	8 h 24 m	Show
15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7 The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives. They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight. Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder. I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more. The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be. I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here. Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio. Take the Thunder Tuesday.
04-07-15	Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +4	Top	100-103	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4 The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go. After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason. Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point. That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now. The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta. I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight. New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season. The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season. New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.
04-04-15	Brooklyn Nets +8.5 v. Atlanta Hawks	Top	99-131	Loss	-100	20 h 60 m	Show
20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5 What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point? They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences. The answer is that they have nothing to play for. Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late. They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit. If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is. The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston. The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games. That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round. I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games. These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn. Bet the Nets Saturday.
04-03-15	Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -2.5		109-114	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 The Brooklyn Nets have saved their best basketball for last, which is fitting considering they have been fighting for their lives to make the playoffs. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and currently sit in the No. 7 spot in the East, but only a half-game ahead of both No. 8 Boston and No. 9 Miami. They still have a lot of work to do. Brook Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn. Deron Williams had his best game with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards in a win over the Knicks last time out. The Toronto Raptors are overvalued due to winning three straight coming in, but those three wins have come against the Lakers, Rockets and Timberwolves. They remain without their best player in Kyle Lowry (back), and I don't believe they stand much of a change against the surging Nets without him. The Raptors are 8-13 in their last 21 games overall. Toronto is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season. Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The Raptors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Nets Friday.
04-02-15	Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks -2		108-101	Loss	-107	9 h 4 m	Show
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2 The Dallas Mavericks are still looking to clinch a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Until they do, they will be laying it all on the line with the hopes of getting some rest in the final few games of the season. The Mavericks are coming off a huge 135-131 win at Oklahoma City last night. While they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, they had two days off prior to that game against the Thunder, so it should not affect them too much. Houston will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after its 115-111 home win over Sacramento yesterday. However, it will be a tired team considering this will also be its 4th game in 5 days. That's about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the season. Dallas is 43-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Dallas. Take the Mavericks Thursday.
04-01-15	Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers -3		126-122	Loss	-103	10 h 9 m	Show
15* Clippers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3 The Portland Trail Blazers (48-25) are playing very well right now. They currently sit in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and have a chance of moving up to the No. 2 seed. That motivation has led to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in their last four games overall. The Los Angeles Clippers (49-26) are in a similar position, and they are playing well right now too. They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and both were at home against Washington and New Orleans. This is a very tough spot for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game last night before giving away to the Warriors in a 106-110 home loss. Now, they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. I believe this is a hangover spot for them after losing to the best team in the NBA as well. Portland is 30-7 SU at home this season. The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series. The Blazers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Clippers. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.
04-01-15	Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2		135-131	Loss	-102	8 h 29 m	Show
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2 The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-32) are just 2.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. They will obviously be playing with a lot of urgency as a result. The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) have not been playing with a sense of urgency at all. They are pretty much locked into the No. 7 seed as they are three games behind San Antonio and three ahead of Oklahoma City. That's not a bad spot to be in considering Memphis is the No. 2 seed right now. The Thunder have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to San Antonio and Utah. They have really taken care of business at home here of late, going 6-0 in their last six home games with five of those victories coming by 8 points or more. The Mavs are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games. This team just has been way out of sync and cannot be trusted only catching two points here tonight. Dallas is 0-10 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83-plus shots per game in the second half of the season this year. Take the Thunder Wednesday.
03-31-15	Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2		110-106	Loss	-108	12 h 57 m	Show
15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 The Golden State Warriors (60-13) already clinched the Pacific Division title, and they locked up the top seed in the West while setting a franchise record for victories in Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee. If this isn't a letdown spot for them, than I don't know what is. Now they have to face a Los Angeles Clippers (49-25) team that has been on a roll since Blake Griffin returned from a 15-game absence. They have gone 7-0 in thier last seven games overall with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points per game. They are now within one game of third-place Memphis. Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team has won seven straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors. The Clippers are 4-0 in their last four and 11-3 in their last 14 home meetings with Golden State as well. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the Clippers Tuesday.
03-30-15	Phoenix Suns +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers	Top	86-109	Loss	-108	11 h 46 m	Show
20* Suns/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +8.5 The Phoenix Suns (38-36) suffered a big loss last night to the Oklahoma City Thunder. They now trail the Thunder by four games in the Western Conference playoff race for the No. 8 seed. It's safe to say that they will be needing to almost win out to make the playoffs now. That also means that the Suns won't be lacking any motivation the rest of the way. That's especially the case tonight as the Suns will be looking for revenge from an 81-87 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers just three days ago on Friday, March 27th. The Blazers come into this game overvalued due to having won three straight. Well, all three wins came by 6 points or less, and they came against Utah, Phoenix and Denver. This team had lost five straight prior to this brief winning streak, so they aren't playing all that well right now and should not be 8.5-point favorites here. The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last four trips to Portland. Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest. Phoenix is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons. The Suns are 48-25 ATS in their last 73 road games. Bet the Suns Monday.
03-29-15	Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. San Antonio Spurs		89-103	Loss	-100	8 h 11 m	Show
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Memphis Grizzlies +8 The value on the Memphis Grizzlies could not be any better than it is right now, while there is no value in backing the San Antonio Spurs right now. As a result, I believe this line has been inflated, and I have no other choice but to side with the road underdog Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Cleveland (89-111) and Golden State (84-107). The betting public now wants nothing to do with the Grizzlies. The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The betting public wants everything to do with them right now because of it. Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less. In fact, four of the last 10 meetings have actually gone to overtime as this has been a very closely-contested rivalry. I look for more of the same tonight when these two square off in San Antonio. Memphis is 81-54 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Grizzlies are 52-32 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots over the last three years. The Spurs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Memphis Sunday.
03-27-15	Dallas Mavericks +9.5 v. San Antonio Spurs		76-94	Loss	-105	9 h 1 m	Show
15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 This number has been inflated for a couple of reasons. The first is that the Spurs are playing well right now, having gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so they are clearly overvalued due to this run of solid play. That includes a 39-point win over Oklahoma City last time out, but the Thunder were playing the second of a back-to-back and shorthanded. The second is that they'll be out for revenge from a 94-101 loss at Dallas on Tuesday. The Spurs played the next night against the Thunder in their 39-point win, so they will have only had one day off in between games. The Mavericks haven't played since that 7-point win over the Spurs, so they have had two days off and will be well-rested and ready to go. Dallas has simply had San Antonio's number in recent meetings as this has proven to be an excellent matchup for the Mavericks. They are 5-5 SU & a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs dating back to their playoff series this past postseason, which sent the full seven games. The Mavericks are 22-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last three seasons . Dallas is 319-251 ATS as an underdog since 1996. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.
03-27-15	Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies +4		107-84	Loss	-115	9 h 31 m	Show
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4 The Golden State Warriors (58-13) beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday to capture their first Pacific Division title since 1975-76. After that huge milestone, I look for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas tonight and to suffer a bit of a letdown. After all, the Warriors lead second-place Memphis (50-22) by 8.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the West. They also lead Atlanta by four games for home-court advantage throughout. They really don't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have a lot to play for right now. They only lead Houston by 1.5 games for the No. 2 seed. They want that No. 2 spot so they can have home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs, so motivation is not an issue for them. The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies are 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Grizzlies Friday.
03-24-15	Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		117-127	Win	100	9 h 57 m	Show
15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month in spite of their 18-50 record. As a result, they have been undervalued time and time again because of their poor record. Indeed, the Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. You have to go all the way back to February 11th to find the last time that they lost a game by more than 9 points. They have gone 15 games without losing by more than 9 points, which makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Lakers pertaining to tonight's 10.5-point spread. This is a very tough spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are playing without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. They have a huge game coming up tomorrow night against the San Antonio Spurs, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Lakers. The Thunder have only won two of their last 13 games by more than 9 points, making for an 11-2 system backing the Lakers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. Los Angeles has played Oklahoma City very tough in the last two meetings, losing 103-104 and 101-108. I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well. Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season. Oklahoma City is 5-14 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 games this year. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Take the Lakers Tuesday.
03-20-15	Toronto Raptors v. Chicago Bulls -1.5		92-108	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5 The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to all of their injuries. I'll gladly take advantage and back them as 1.5-point home favorites today against the Toronto Raptors. After all, injuries didn't stop them from thumping Indiana 103-86 last time out. The Bulls will now be working on a ton of rest. They will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, which will be a huge advantage for them considering their injuries right now. The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors. Toronto is dealing with a key injury of its own. Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an back injury, and he's the Raptors' best player. They come in overvalued due to having won three of four, but their three wins came against Miami, Indiana and Minnesota. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the Bulls Friday.
03-16-15	Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -4.5	Top	115-119	Loss	-102	10 h 35 m	Show
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 The Dallas Mavericks have had ample time to rest and correct their mistakes. They have had two days off since their 129-99 home victory over the LA Clippers on Friday. This will also be just their 2nd game in 6 days, and I really like backing rested teams this time of year. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is going to be a very tired team heading into this one. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days following a hard-fought 109-100 home victory over the Chicago Bulls Sunday. Making matters worse for the Thunder is that they are extremely short-handed right now. They remain without Kevin Durant due to a foot injury. Now, they are also expected to be without Serge Ibaka, who is doubtful today with a knee injury. The Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. The Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Monday games. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Mavericks Monday.
03-16-15	Brooklyn Nets -2.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves		122-106	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 The Brooklyn Nets (26-38) know that they need a big finish if they want to make the playoffs. They sit three games behind Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They cannot afford to lose to lowly Minnesota (14-51) tonight. The Nets will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 97-123 at San Antonio yesterday. Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games overall with four straight losses by 9 points or more. Making matters worse for the Timberwolves if their long list of injuries. Gary Neal, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic are all questionable to play today. Anthony Bennett, Shabazz Muhammad and Robbie Hummel are all out. Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 0 days rest. The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Roll with the Nets Monday.
03-16-15	Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2		97-105	Win	100	8 h 4 m	Show
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -2 After a long stretch of poor play for about a month, the Washington Wizards (38-28) are finally back on track. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. Not only have the Wizards been winning, they've been dominating. They beat Charlotte 95-69 on the road, Memphis 107-87 at home, and Sacramento 113-97 at home. This will only be their 3rd game in 7 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight. Portland is overvalued right now due to having won eight of its last nine. This is the ultimate tough spot for the Blazers, who are coming off a 113-97 win at Toronto last night. They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. The home team has won three straight and 9 of the last 12 meetings in this series. Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Washington. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Wizards Monday.
03-15-15	Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -1.5		113-97	Loss	-108	8 h 19 m	Show
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -1.5 Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Toronto Raptors as only 2-point home favorites. They are 22-11 at home this season and have protected their home court very well, winning by an average of 5.0 points per game. The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, but they are just an average NBA road team this season. They are 15-14 away from home where they are only outscoring foes by 0.9 points per game. Toronto comes into this game way undervalued due to having lost nine of their last 11 games overall. I backed them with success as a free pick on Friday with a 102-92 home victory over Miami as 5-point favorites. I'll continue to roll them while they're undervalued today. Portland is 4-16 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Toronto is 8-8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning by 8.2 points per game in this spot. Take the Raptors Sunday.
03-13-15	Atlanta Hawks v. Phoenix Suns +5.5		96-87	Loss	-105	13 h 33 m	Show
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5.5 The Phoenix Suns still have a realistic shot of making the Western Conference playoffs. At 34-32 on the year, they are currently just 2.5 games behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final spot in the West. With a 50-14 record on the season, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued here down the stretch. They should not be laying 5.5 points on the road to the Suns in this one. They are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have created expectations for themselves from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to, which gives us ample value to fade them. Phoenix is 18-9 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix. Bet the Suns Friday.
03-11-15	Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 v. Boston Celtics		92-95	Loss	-105	19 h 60 m	Show
15* NBA Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 This is a very generous price we are getting Wednesday on the Grizzlies as only 4.5-point road favorites over the Celtics. We are getting the No. 2 team in the West in Memphis (45-18) up against the No. 10 team in the East in Boston (26-36) at this short number. This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Memphis is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston with all five victories coming by 4 points or more. In fact, the Grizzlies are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 trips to Boston, which is simply a ridiculous trend that needs backing tonight. The Celtics are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Memphis is 49-28 ATS in its last 77 games off a road win by 10 points or more. Boston is 46-77 ATS in its last 123 home games off an upset win as an underdog. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.
03-10-15	New Orleans Pelicans v. Brooklyn Nets -3	Top	111-91	Loss	-100	8 h 2 m	Show
20* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -3 The Brooklyn Nets (25-36) trail the Charlotte (28-34) and Indiana (28-34) by 2.5 games for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. After losing three straight coming into this one, they'll be highly motivated for a victory when they host the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. New Orleans (35-29) is also in a tight battle for the final playoff spot in the West, but it is in a very tough spot here tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is about as difficult a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the year. Making matters worse for the Pelicans is that they'll be without three key players. Jrue Holiday (15.2 ppg) and Ryan Anderson (14.6 ppg) have both been out for quite some time, but now second-leading scorer Tyreke Evans (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5.3 rpg) suffered an ankle injury against Milwaukee last night and is doubtful to go. The Pelicans are already tired as it is, and now they're even more short-handed. Brooklyn is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 when revenging a loss as a road favorite. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. The Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Brooklyn. Bet the Nets Tuesday.
03-09-15	Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets	Top	95-69	Win	100	7 h 52 m	Show
20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +1.5 The Charlotte Hornets are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you will find in the NBA, especially this late in the season. They will have nothing left to give tonight. Washington comes into this game on a day of rest and highly motivated for a win. It is undervalued in this game due to having lost eight of its last 10 games overall. Meanwhile, Charlotte is overvalued due to having won five straight coming in with four of those against non-playoff teams. The Wizards are also going to be motivated to put an end to their five-game losing streak against the Hornets in this series. The last four have all went down to the wire and have been decided by 7 points or less. The Wizards are catching the tired Hornets at the right time to put an end to their skid in this series. Charlotte is 10-23 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 74-51 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Wizards Monday.
03-08-15	Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons	Top	108-101	Loss	-110	7 h 53 m	Show
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons PK The Detroit Pistons (23-38) are highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to a five-game losing streak. They trail the 8th place team in the East by 4.5 games and cannot afford to fall further behind. One of the teams they are chasing is Charlotte (27-33), which will only add to the motivation today. Detroit's recent 5-game skid is more due to playing a tough schedule than anything. It has lost to Cleveland and New York at home, as well as Washington, New Orleans and Houston on the road. All five losses came by 10 points or less, so the Pistons were competitive in every game. The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Bet the Pistons Sunday.
03-07-15	Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers +10		84-92	Win	100	14 h 55 m	Show
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +10 The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot. They just beat the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, which are their biggest contenders tow in the East in 2014-15. They showed that they could beat them, and after that satisfying victory there's no question they will let down Saturday. Atlanta doesn't care if it beats Philly or not tonight. That lack of motivation will have it playing down to its level of competition. That's why the 76ers are a great play tonight. They are paying better here of late, but I'm not backing them because their good. I'm backing them because Atlanta doesn't care about winning this game, while Philly wants to show that it can compete with the best the East has to offer. Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season. Atlanta is 63-94 ATS (-40.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996. The 76rers are 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. The Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with the 76ers Saturday.
03-04-15	Charlotte Hornets v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5		115-91	Loss	-105	20 h 38 m	Show
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5 The Brooklyn Nets (25-33) and Charlotte Bobcats (25-33) are tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, both teams are going to want this game pretty badly, but I believe the Nets are in a much better position than the Hornets to get it tonight. Charlotte is a very tired team right now as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping the lowly Los Angeles Lakers at home 104-103 last night. It comes in having lost six of its last nine games overall with two of its wins coming against the Magic and Lakers. It remains without starting PG Kemba Walker. Brooklyn comes into this game almost fully healthy and on a days' rest after last playing on Monday in an impressive 110-108 win over Golden State. The Nets are also playing their best basketball of the season coming in. They have won four of their last six and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They covered in an 86-95 loss at Memphis as 13-point dogs where they were playing their 4th game in 5 days. They beat the Lakers 114-105 as 3-point road favorites, the Nuggets 110-82 as 2-point road favorites, the Mavs 104-94 as 8-point road dogs, and the Warriors 110-108 as 5.5-point home dogs. They did lose to New Orleans 96-102 as 2.5-point road favorites, but narrowly lost at Houston 98-102 as 8-point road dogs. This is an impressive stretch to say the least against many of the top teams in the West. This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Nets are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Hornets. Each of their last eight wins in this series have come by 5 points or more, including seven by 9 points or more. That includes a 114-87 road win on December 13th in their first and only meeting of the 2014-15 season. Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in March home games over the last two seasons. The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are 5-0 ATS when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Nets Wednesday.
03-02-15	Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets +5.5		108-110	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +5.5 The Golden State Warriors are coming off one of the biggest comebacks in the NBA this season. Trailing by 26 points midway through the second quarter, the Warriors came all the way back to beat the Boston Celtics 106-101 on the road Sunday. Not only will this now be the second of a back-to-back, but the Warriors will also be playing their 4th game in 5 days. That is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. They used a ton of energy coming back on Sunday and won't have much left to give tonight. The Brooklyn Nets come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. They are right in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff race at 24-33 and are obviously making a push to try and get into the postseason. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They only lost at Memphis by 9 as 13-point dogs, beat the Lakers by 9 as 3-point road favorites, beat the Nuggets by 28 as 2-point road favorites, lost to New Orleans by 6 as 2.5-point road favorites, lost to Houston by 4 as 8-point road dogs, and beat Dallas by 10 as 8-point road dogs during this stretch. The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now and continue to be tonight. They are in the midst of a stretch where they have played 10 of their last 11 games on the road. They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their nine road games during this span. Brooklyn is 25-14 ATS revenging a road loss against an oponent over the last two seasons. The Nets are 32-18 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last two years as well. The Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes. The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Brooklyn. Take the Nets Monday.
03-01-15	Philadelphia 76ers +11.5 v. Indiana Pacers		74-94	Loss	-105	8 h 56 m	Show
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +11.5 The Philadelphia 76ers were a money-making machine in the second half last year. It has continued to be a money-making machine in the second half of 2014-15. I'll ride this cash cow to another winner Sunday against the Indiana Pacers. The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They have beaten the likes of Detroit, Minnesota, Denver, Charlotte and Washington outright as underdogs during this stretch. They have only been beaten by more than 11 points twice in their last 13 games overall. Indiana is in a massive letdown spot tonight. The Pacers are coming off one of their biggest winw of the season, a 93-86 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Well, Lebron James and Kyrie Irving both sat out that game to rest, so it wasn't as big of a win as originally thought. The Pacers are 2-16 ATS in March games over the last two seasons. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest. The Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 when playing NBA Atlantic division foes. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the 76ers Sunday.
02-28-15	Atlanta Hawks -5 v. Miami Heat		93-91	Loss	-115	8 h 3 m	Show
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5 The Atlanta Hawks (46-12) are proud owners of the best record best record in the Eastern Conference. While they have slowed down a bit, they do come into this game on a three-game winning streak with an 11-point win at Milwaukee, a 17-point home win over Dallas and a 7-point home win over Orlando. I haven't taken the Hawks in a long time because I believe they were overvalued after a fast start, but tonight I believe they are showing excellent value as only 5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat (25-32). Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but this is a much tougher spot for Miami. The Heat are already short-handed because their best player in Chris Bosh is out for the season. Now, the Heat will not only be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as it gets in the NBA. They won't have anything left in the tank off their deflating 102-104 loss at New Orleans last night, which was playing without three of its best players in Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson. While this is a second of a back-to-back situation for Atlanta, it is actually just the 3rd game the Hawks will have played in the past six days. They had two days off in between the Milwaukee and Dallas game. So, they will be the much more rested team coming into this one. Plus, the Hawks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons for their success this season. Atlanta has owned Miami dating back to last year when the Heat had Lebron James. The Hawks are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. They won by 7 and 13 points at home last year. They won by 11 points at home and by 10 points on the road in their two meetings this season. Both of those came when the Heat had a healthy Chris Bosh, too. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest. Atlanta is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Hawks are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 home games. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Combine these two trends with the Hawks being 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and we have a 16-0 system backing Atlanta. Bet the Hawks Saturday.
02-26-15	Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5	Top	99-110	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing the best basketball in the NBA right now. They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall, and it's no coincidence that this run has coincided with a healthy return of Lebron James. Rarely will you get the chances to back the Cavs as this short of a favorite, and we'll take advantage Thursday. Cleveland is not only winning, it is dominating. In fact, all 17 of its wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or more, including 11 by double-digits. This team should be a much heavier favorite at home tonight against the Warriors, who have come back down to reality following an epic start. The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost at Atlanta by 8 as 2-point favorites, won at New York by 14 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Philadelphia by 5 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Minnesota by 3 as 9-point favorites, beat San Antonio by 11 as 7.5-point favorites, lost at Indiana by 6 as 4-point favorites, and won at Washington by 7 as 7-point favorites during their 1-5-1 ATS stretch. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes. Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. The Cavs are 9-1 ATS in thier last 10 home games. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Golden State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes. These five trends combine for a 33-2 system backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.
02-24-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons +7	Top	102-93	Loss	-110	8 h 52 m	Show
20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +7 The Detroit Pistons are once again lacking the respect they deserve as 7-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this one. The Pistons have beaten the likes of Houston (114-101), Miami (108-91), Denver (98-88), Charlotte (106-78), Chicago (100-91) and Washington (106-89) during this stretch. So, they are not only winning, they are dominating as all six of their victories have come by 9 points or more. Five of the six came against playoff contenders, too. Cleveland comes into this game overvalued due to having won 16 of its last 18 games overall. The Cavaliers are scoring 106.6 points per game since Christmas, but the Pistons are scoring 106.5 points per game since Christmas, just a tick behind. Detroit is only going to be better going forward as Reggie Jackson gets acclimated to the offense after being traded from Oklahoma City. Detroit has played Cleveland very tough this season. It beat the Cavaliers 103-80 on the road on January 28th in a game in which Lebron James did play in. It only lost 95-103 as 8.5-point home dogs on January 27th, which was about the time it found out it would be without Brandon Jennings for the rest of the year due to injury. Jackson will fill that all-important point guard spot very well going forward. Plays on underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cavs are in a lookahead spot here as they have a huge game against the Warriors on deck at home Thursday night. Cleveland is 2-11 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 18 or less fouls this season. Detroit is 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. It is winning by an average of 14.7 points per game in this spot. The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.
02-21-15	Sacramento Kings +10 v. Los Angeles Clippers	Top	99-126	Loss	-110	9 h 2 m	Show
20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +10 The Sacramento Kings have new life coming out of the All-Star Break. Legendary head coach George Karl takes over for the remainder of the season, and it was an excellent debut for the former Seattle Supersonics and Denver Nuggets coach. The Kings erased a 16-point deficit and overcame 24 turnovers to beat the Boston Celtics 109-101 at home last night. Under past coaches, this team would have folded with an effort like that, but they fought back for Karl. I believe this will be a sign of things to come. The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game way overvalued due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They were previously undervalued due to not having Blake Griffin, but after showing they could play well without him, they are now overvalued. Teams can play well without their superstars for a few games, but over time it starts to catch up to them. This is also a huge letdown spot for the Clippers. They are coming off three straight wins against playoff contenders in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. They have four straight games against playoff contenders coming up after this, including Monday's tilt with Memphis. I look for them to take their foot off of the gas enough to fail to cover this massive 10-point spread tonight. A big reason the Clippers have held their own without Griffin is DeAndre JOrdan. He has totaled 72 points and 65 rebounds of his last three games. Well, Sacramento is the best rebounding team in the NBA with a plus-4.5 mark. Jordan has totaled 12 points and 18 rebounds as the teams have split their first two meetings this season. DeMarcus Cousins did not play in the Kings' 108-117 home loss to the Clippers in their last meeting. He did play in their 98-92 upset win at L.A. in their first, and makes all the difference for this team. Cousins had 31 points and 15 rebounds against the Celtics last night, while Rudy Gay scored 28. Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS after a game where it gave up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the past three seasons. Sacramento is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. Six of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or less. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Kings Saturday.
02-20-15	Brooklyn Nets -3 v. Los Angeles Lakers	Top	114-105	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3 The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as only 3-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The Nets (21-31) find themselves sitting in 9th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, just one game behind the Miami Heat. That's why they should come out of the break highly motivated for a victory. Plus, they went into the break with three straight losses, all of which came on the road to playoff contenders in Washington, Milwaukee and Memphis. I look for them to dig down deep to get a win in their first game out of the break. The Los Angeles Lakers (13-40) have the second-worst record in the Western Conference. They have lost six straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall coming into this one. Their last three losses all came by double-digits. They are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 55-20 (73.3%) ATS since 1996. The Nets are 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons. Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games this season. Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in its last eight after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Nets Friday.
02-19-15	Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5	Top	89-104	Win	100	8 h 21 m	Show
20* Mavericks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5 The Oklahoma City Thunder return from the All-Star Break in a great position to make the playoffs. They won five of their final six games before the break to get to 28-25 on the season and just a half-game behind the Phoenix Suns for the No. 8 seed in the West. The Thunder haven't only been winning here of late, they've been dominating. Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, including a 16-point home win over Memphis, a 10-point win at Denver, a 23-point home win over the Clippers, and an 11-point road win at New Orleans. The Dallas Mavericks are getting healthy coming out of the break. They are expected to have Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler in the lineup for this game. Amare Stoudemire is also probable after being acquired before the deadline. While this is good news for the Mavs, it also has them overvalued coming into this game. They should be more than 5-point dogs against the superior Thunder on the road. The Thunder are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Mavericks. Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season. The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.
02-11-15	Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers -3		95-110	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
15* Rockets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3 It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers. They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public has shunned this team here of late. But keep in mind that they are coming off a grueling 8-game road trip that featured seven games against playoff contenders. The Clippers did finish the trip with a resounding 115-98 road win over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. They have played their last two games without Blake Griffin, and while that is a concern, I don't believe it's as big of a deal as the betting public is making it out to be. I also look at is as a 'wash' heading into this game with Houston because the Rockets are without Dwight Howard. What I really like about this play is that it's a very tough situation for the Rockets. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning a 127-118 shootout at Phoenix last night. Without Howard, the Rockets are having to rely on James Harden too much. He delivered with 40 points in 43 minutes of action last night, but he is running on fumes right now and will be ineffective tonight. This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rockets. These games haven't even been close as the Clippers have won by 17, 11, 8, 13 and 19 points with three of those victories actually coming on the road. That's an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game. Harden has been limited to 18.6 points and 37.0 percent from the floor in those five contests. Houston is 11-22 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
02-09-15	Los Angeles Clippers +8.5 v. Dallas Mavericks		115-98	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers +8.5 After seeing the Clippers get destroyed by the Thunder on Sunday in their first game without Blake Griffin, the betting public has been quick to jump on the Dallas Mavericks today. That has created some excellent line value to pounce on the Clippers as 8.5-point road underdogs in this matchup. Losing Griffin was a bit of a surprise as the news that he was out until after the All-Star Break wasn't announced until Sunday morning. The Clippers obviously did not play well in their first game without him, but they'll make the proper adjustments heading into this game tonight. Plus, I look for the Clippers to dig down a little deeper tonight to try and put an end to their four-game losing streak. All four losses have come on the road to the Nets, Cavaliers, Raptors and Thunder, so they have obviously been dealt a brutal schedule. This is the final game of a long seven-game road trip, and the Clippers will be motivated to try and end it on a high note. With the All-Star Break coming up shortly, I don't expect fatigue to be a factor. While the Clippers are undervalued due to having lost four straight, the Mavericks are overvalued after winning five of their last six. Well, their five victories have come against the likes of Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Sacramento and Portland. The win over the Blazers came at home in overtime, and it represents the only playoff team they have beaten during this stretch. In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-5 straight up in their last six games against teams with winning records. While the Griffin injury is big for the Clippers, the oddsmakers are discounting the Rajon Rondo injury for the Mavericks, which is nearly as big as the loss of Griffin for the Clippers. It all adds up to the value being with the road underdog tonight. The Clippers are 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with the Mavericks. Their two losses have come by 6 points at home and by 7 points (in OT) on the road. So, they have clearly had the Mavericks' number in this series here of late. In fact, they have not lost by more than 7 points to Dallas in any of their last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 8.5-point spread. Roll with the Clippers Monday.
02-09-15	Orlando Magic +10 v. Washington Wizards	Top	80-96	Loss	-115	8 h 36 m	Show
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10 I realize the Orlando Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back after their tough 97-98 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. However, I believe they will be motivated enough to push through the fatigue. After all, this is still a very young team, so back-to-backs don't bother them as much. The reason the Magic will be motivated is because they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Wizards. The Wizards are 3-0 against the Magic this season, but those three wins have come by 7, 5 and 2 points. In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less. Don't be surprised to see the Magic pull off the upset tonight with the way they have been playing here of late. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs, by 1 to Chicago as 6-point dogs, and they also beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point favorites. As you can see, they have hung right with some of the best teams in the league here of late. The Wizards are not playing well at all right now, which is why they should not be laying double-digit points to the Magic. Washington is 1-5 straight up in its last six games overall. It is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, yet it continues to be overvalued tonight against the Magic laying such a big number. The Magic are a sensational 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. This trend just goes to show their ability to hang with good teams on the road. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Magic Monday.
02-08-15	Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5		88-94	Win	100	8 h 0 m	Show
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 Due to owning the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, the Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They are only 2-point road underdogs against one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Memphis Grizzlies today when it should be much higher. Atlanta is overvalued due to going 17-0 in the month of January. This is a team that has continued to win, but keep in mind that nine of its last 10 games have been at home. The only road game during this stretch resulted in a 100-115 loss at New Orleans. This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks, too. They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season as they beat the Golden State Warriors 124-116 on Friday night. The Warriors own the best record in the West, so it's only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown off such a huge win that they believe validated them. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, come into this game hungry for a victory after blowing a late lead on Friday to lose in Minnesota 89-90. That was a rare loss for this team. Indeed, the Grizzlies are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers. That includes wins over the likes of the Suns (twice), Blazers, Raptors, Mavericks and Thunder. Memphis has been playing its most suffocating defense of the season here of late. It has allowed 94 or fewer points in eight of its last nine games overall, giving up an average of 86.3 points per game during this stretch. Nothing is coming easy against this team, which features three of the best defenders at their positions in Mike Concey, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol. Memphis is 21-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game. The Grizzlies are 14-5 against the East this season, including 8-1 at home. Zach Randolph has averaged 20.1 points and 14.9 boards in his last eight home games. Atlanta did beat Memphis 96-86 at home in their first meeting, but the Grizzlies were on the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and were without Randolph for most of it. Now healthy, the Grizzlies will be out for revenge in this one. Memphis is 73-48 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Grizzlies are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Memphis is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Take the Grizzlies Sunday.
02-07-15	Chicago Bulls -2 v. New Orleans Pelicans	Top	107-72	Win	100	10 h 41 m	Show
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2 The New Orleans Pelicans are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing the Thunder in a home-and-home situation on Wednesday and Friday. After losing to the Thunder 91-102 at home on Wednesday, the Pelicans came back with a huge 116-113 road win last night as Anthony Davis hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. After such an emotional win over the team that's trailing them in the Western Conference standings, the Pelicans are in a clear letdown spot here tonight. New Orleans will be extremely tired for this game tonight, while Chicago comes in well-rested and ready to go. The Bulls last played on Wednesday, so they have had two days off in between games. They also come in hungry for a win after dropping each of their last three games, all on the road to the Lakers, Suns and Rockets. Chicago is one of the few teams that has actually played better on the road than at home this season. It is 17-9 in all road games this year. That includes recent road wins over the Mavericks and Warriors, who are two of the better teams in the Western Conference. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to New Orleans. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Bulls Saturday.
02-06-15	Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3	Top	97-103	Win	100	8 h 29 m	Show
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3 The Orlando Magic are highly motivated to put an end to their currently 10-game losing streak. Nine of those 10 losses have come against playoff contenders, so the streak has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything. The Magic finally get a break in their schedule tonight as they host the lowly Los Angeles Lakers. Orlando has been playing some very good basketball here of late despite losing. It went on the road and played Oklahoma City to a 97-104 game as 10.5-point underdogs. It then went to San Antonio and only lost 103-110 as 13.5-point dogs last time out. The Lakers haven't been playing any better than the Magic here of late. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall. Los Angeles is 0-8 in its last eight road games with all eight losses coming by 4 points or more, including seven by 8 or more points. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings. Not only are the Lakers without Kobe Bryant, they are also playing without starting center Jordan Hill. Meanwhile, the Magic are pretty much at full strength health-wise. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog this season. Los Angeles is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Magic Friday.
02-05-15	Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings +3		101-78	Loss	-105	10 h 34 m	Show
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +3 The Dallas Mavericks are in a very tough spot tonight. They are coming off a 114-128 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Mavericks blew an early 20-plus point lead as they were eventually blown out in the 4th quarter. After playing the top team in the West last night, this is clearly a hangover spot for the Mavericks. Plus, they'll be running on fumes. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are short-handed right now. Their bench has no depth ever since trading for Rajon Rondo and sending Brandon Wright and Jae Crowder away. Now, Rondo is out indefinitely with an injury. The Mavericks as a whole just aren't going to have enough energy to put forth a very good effort tonight. Yes, the Sacramento Kings aren't playing great coming in as they have lost nine of their last 10 games overall. However, all nine of their losses have come against playoff contenders, including a 104-108 (OT) home loss to the Mavericks back on January 13th. That sets the Kings up for a revenge spot here. Yes, the Kings have lost five straight meetings with the Mavericks, but they have played them extremely tough in all five meetings. They lost all five of those games by 8 points or less. They lost by 4, 8, 2, 3, and 4 points in their last five meetings, respectively. They've obviously proven they can play the Mavs tough, and given this horrible situation for Dallas, I look for the Kings to get over the hump and get a win in this series tonight. Dallas is 5-14 ATS after allowing 105 or more points this season. The Mavericks are 8-17 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this year. Dallas is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference foes. The Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with the Kings Thursday.
02-03-15	Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks -1	Top	108-97	Loss	-105	11 h 16 m	Show
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1 The New York Knicks come into this game against the Boston Celtics playing their best basketball of the season. As a result, they are showing awesome value as only 1-point home favorites over the Celtics in this one. Indeed, the Knicks are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. This run has coincided with a healthy return of Carmelo Anthony, as well as the additions of key role players Langston Galloway and Lance Thomas. The Knicks are 4-0 in their last four home games with a 9-point win over the Pelicans, a 7-point win over the Magic, an 8-point win over the Thunder, and a 12-point win over the Lakers. The Boston Celtics have pretty much waved the white flag with all of the players they have traded away this season, including Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green. They are struggling here of late, going 0-3 in their last three games overall. They lost by 12 at Minnesota, by 6 at home to Houston, and by 8 at home to Miami. This has been a one-sided series here of late to say the least. The Knicks are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in thier last three meetings with the Celtics despite playing two of those three on the road. They won 114-88 at home, 116-92 on the road, and 101-95 on the road in those three meetings, outscoring the Celtics by an average of 18.7 points per game. New York is 21-9 ATS when playing against a bad team (win percentage 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. The Knicks are 11-2 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 games against the spread over the last three years. The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Take the Knicks Tuesday.
02-02-15	Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Pelicans +4.5		100-115	Win	100	9 h 44 m	Show
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 I fully expect the Atlanta Hawks' 19-game winning streak to come to an end tonight on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. I'll just take the points for some added insurance in case it's a close game. The Hawks have been overvalued for the last week-plus after setting an NBA record for most consecutive ATS covers with 15 in a row to start this 19-game streak. However, they have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. They only beat Minnesota by 12 as 17.5-point favorites, Brooklyn by 11 as 14-point favorites, Portland by 6 as 5-point favorites, and Philadelphia by 6 as 16.5-point favorites. The Hawks have won each of their last seven at home, but now they'll have to hit the road tonight against a New Orleans team that has been awesome at home this year. Indeed, the Pelicans are 16-6 straight up and 14-7-1 ATS in all home games this season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 6.8 points per game at home. The Pelicans come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They beat the Lakers (by 16), Mavericks (by 3), 76ers (by 25) and Clippers (by 5) at home, and the Timberwolves (by 8) on the road. They did lose to the Nuggets (by 8) at home for their only loss during this stretch. New Orleans is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Atlanta. What's most impressive about that is three of the four games were played on the road. Yes, the Pelicans did lose 91-100 at Atlanta in their first meeting of 2014-15, but they only scored 28 points in the first half and did a good job of fighting their way back into the game. Look for them to play a full four quarters in this one and to pull off the upset. Plays on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, in February games are 44-14 (75.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New Orleans is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 home games. The Pelicans are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Roll with the Pelicans Monday.
02-02-15	Los Angeles Clippers v. Brooklyn Nets +9		100-102	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +9 They Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued tonight as 9-point road favorites over the Brooklyn Nets. The Clippers are in their 4th game of a long eight-game road trip. After a 5-point win over Utah and a 5-point loss to New Orleans to start the trip, the Clippers put together arguably their best performance of the season in a 20-point win at San Antonio. They are getting too much respect because of that 20-point win. That win over the defending champs sets the Clippers up for a letdown spot here. This is also a lookahead spot because their next game is at Cleveland. That makes this an extremely vulnerable spot for the Clippers, and we'll look to fade them because of it. The Nets currently sit in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Charlotte Hornets for 8th place. They clearly have plenty to play for as a result, and they have been playing some solid basketball here of late against the best in the East despite coming out on the losing end. Brooklyn has lost four in a row coming in, but it did hang right with Atlanta and Toronto in its last two games. It only lost 102-113 at Atlanta as 14-point underdogs, and 122-127 (OT) at home against Toronto as 7.5-point dogs. The Nets are also well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days. Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Clippers and Nets. Brooklyn has won six straight and 14 of its last 15 home meetings with Los Angeles. That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Nets if there was no spread in this game, but add in the 9-point line and you can see that they are showing excellent value given the head-to-head history. Plays on home underdogs of 9 or more points (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 36-8 (81.8%) ATS since 1996. The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Nets are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. Take the Nets Monday.
01-31-15	Phoenix Suns +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors		87-106	Loss	-105	11 h 38 m	Show
15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +9.5 Due to their torrid start to the season that has them sitting in first place in the Western Conference with a 36-8 record, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now. I have faded them with success here recently, and will continue to do so tonight. The Warriors are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They only beat the Celtics 114-111 as 18-point home favorites, lost to the Bulls 111-113 as 11-point home favorites, and then lost to the Jazz 100-110 last night as 10-point road favorites. The Phoenix Suns continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. They have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to get to 28-20 on the season and in 8th place in the Western Conference. The Suns also played last night in a 99-93 win over the Bulls. However, I don't mind backing this team on the second of a back-to-back because they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA. The Suns have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings. They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Golden State. Two of their three losses have come by 6 points or fewer, including a 113-107 loss as 10-point underdogs in their last trip to Golden State. The Suns won their only meeting with the Warriors this season 107-95 at home. Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss. Phoenix is 27-13 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons. Roll with the Suns Saturday.
01-31-15	Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -5	Top	105-85	Loss	-107	9 h 37 m	Show
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -5 The San Antonio Spurs are finally healthy and playing like the defending champions that they are as a result. The Spurs have won seven of their last eight games overall with all seven of those victories coming by 5 points or more, including five by 9 or more. The defending champs certainly come into this game well-rested and ready to go. They have had two days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Wednesday. This will also be just their 2nd game in the past 6 days. The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who are a very tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight. They lost a 103-108 heartbreaker to the Pelicans last night despite being 8-point favorites as they started to show signs of wearing down. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three. They only beat the Nuggets by 4 as 14-point favorites and the Jazz by 5 as 6.5-point favorites. San Antonio simply has Los Angeles' number. The Spurs have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Clippers. Three of those victories came by double-digits as well. They beat the Clippers 125-118 as 1-point home favorites in their last meeting despite playing without Khawi Leonard, who is back healthy now. The Clippers are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on 0 days' rest. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 visits to San Antonio. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
01-31-15	Philadelphia 76ers +17 v. Atlanta Hawks		85-91	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +17 The Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They are currently riding an 18-game winning streak that saw them cover an NBA-record 15 straight games to start the streak. Finally, the odds have caught up to them. The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games during the streak. They only won by 12 as 17.5-point favorites over Minnesota, by 11 as 14-point favorites over Brooklyn, and by 6 as 6.5-point favorites over Portland. Now, the Hawks will find it extremely difficult to get motivated to play the lowly Philadelphia 76ers tonight. That's especially the case considering they recently beat the 76ers by 18 during this winning streak. I look for them to come out flat off that big win over Portland last night, and to not bring the kind of effort it will take to put away Philadelphia by 17-plus points. The 76ers come into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season. They have won each of their last two games outright as underdogs. They beat the Pistons 89-69 as 8-point home underdogs on January 28th, and then came back with a 103-94 upset win over the Timberwolves as 4-point dogs last night. Philadelphia hasn't lost by more than 16 points in Atlanta in any of the last eight meetings. It has won three games outright as underdogs in those eight meetings. The five losses came by 16, 8, 10, 11 and 5 points. I look for the 76ers to hang tough again Saturday. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, on Saturday games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. Atlanta is 24-42 ATS in its last 66 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. The 76ers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the 76ers Saturday.
01-31-15	Toronto Raptors v. Washington Wizards -3	Top	120-116	Loss	-110	7 h 8 m	Show
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards -3 This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors and a great one for the Washington Wizards. I'll lay the small number on the home favorite Wizards because of it tonight. Toronto comes in overvalued as it is due to having won five straight, but all five of those wins came against Philadelphia, Deetroit, Indiana, Sacramento and Brooklyn, all of which currently have losing records. Three of those victories came by 5 points or less. The reason this is a tough spot for the Raptors is because they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Making matters worse is the fact that they played an overtime game last night against the Nets. Kyle Lowry played 44 minutes and DeMar DeRozan played 41. The Raptors could be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas, who suffered an ankle injury against Brooklyn and is questionable. Washington comes in undervalued after failing to cover the spread in each of its last five games overall. Well, four of those games were on the road, and all five were against Western Conference teams. It was also a 4 games in 5 days stretch. Now, the Wizards come in refreshed and ready to go after having two days' rest since last playing on Wednesday. They will clearly bring more energy to the court tonight. Washington is 18-6 at home this season. Toronto is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 games following four or more consecutive wins. The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Toronto is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall. The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with the Wizards Saturday.
01-30-15	Chicago Bulls v. Phoenix Suns -5.5		93-99	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Phoenix -5.5 The Phoenix Suns look to cap off a record eight-game home stand with one final victory Friday night. They have gone 5-2 through the first seven games of this home stand, and they have won 15 of their last 21 games overall. This team continues to go under the radar as one of the better teams in the NBA that gets no respect. I like their chances of getting a victory tonight by 6-plus points against a tired Chicago Bulls team that will just have nothing left in the tank. The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Making matters worse for Chicago is that it has played back-to-back overtime games, including a double-OT loss to the lowly Lakers 118-123 last night. Jimmy Butler played 49 minutes, Derrick Rose played 42, Joakim Noah played 42, and Paul Gasol played 44. Now, Butler is questionable to play tonight due to a knee injury suffered against the Lakers. Phoenix is a bad team for Chicago to have to play tonight when fatigued. That's because the Suns play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA. Indeed, they rank 2nd in the league in pace at 99.2 possessions per game. They also rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions. They average 107.3 points per game this year. The Suns are averaging 112.8 points on 49.2 percent shooting while winning eight of their last 10 at home. With the Super Bowl being played in nearby Glendale, the Suns should have a great crowd for this game tonight and a huge home-court advantage. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Suns Friday.
01-30-15	Portland Trail Blazers +7 v. Atlanta Hawks	Top	99-105	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7 The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now due to their franchise-record 17-game winning streak coming into this game. The Blazers could not be more undervalued right now due to losing six of their last eight games overall. This is the perfect storm that has created a ton of line value for us to back the Blazers as 7-point road dogs. Portland (32-14) is still one of the best teams in the NBA despite this recent poor stretch. It's not like the Blazers are getting blown out, either. Five of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less. They have simply been on the wrong end of all their close games here of late, and they have played some stiff competition as well as five of the losses have come to the Clippers, Spurs, Grizzlies, Suns and Cavs. After covering an NBA-record 15 straight games, the evidence of the Hawks being overvalued has shown in their last two. They only beat the Timberwolves by 12 as 17.5-point favorites and the Nets by 11 as 14-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in each. Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Blazers. I look at this as a letdown spot for Atlanta. Yesterday, it had three players voted into the All-Star Game in Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford. While all three are deserving on a 38-8 squad that is in first place in the East, I can see it working against them tonight. Getting three All-Stars gives the Hawks a sense of validity, or that their job has been done. I look for them to take their foot off the gas tonight, while getting a monster effort from the motivated Blazers. Atlanta is 1-13 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last three seasons. It is actually getting outscored by an average of 4.6 points per game in this spot. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Bet the Blazers Friday.
01-29-15	Denver Nuggets +10.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies		69-99	Loss	-104	8 h 16 m	Show
15* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Denver +10.5 There's no question that the Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here physically. This will be their 4th game in 5 days after beating the New Orleans Pelicans last night on the road. However, I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted for this tough spot for the Nuggets, and there's clearly value in backing them as double-digit underdogs to the Memphis Grizzlies. Denver has been extremely competitive over the past month despite having lost seven straight prior to its win over the Pelicans last night. In fact, the Nuggets have only lost once by more than 10 points in their last 15 games overall. That was a road loss to the Golden State Warriors, who are the best team in the NBA up to this point. That's also a 14-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. Memphis is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to having won four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. It is coming off a shocking 109-90 upset win at Dallas last time out, which is only adding to the inflation of this line. This could be a potential letdown spot for the Grizzlies off that big win and with Oklahoma City on deck. Denver has played Memphis extremely tough in recent years. It beat Memphis 114-85 at home in its first and only meeting of 2014-15 on January 3rd. The Nuggets have won five of their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies outright while going 6-3 ATS. In fact, in the last 26 meetings, the Nuggets have lost to the Grizzlies by more than 10 points only once. That's a 25-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. Plays against home teams (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Memphis is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. The Grizzlies could be without two starters in PG Mike Conley and SG Tony Allen tonight, who are both listed as questionable after sitting out last game. Take the Nuggets Thursday.
01-29-15	Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +4.5	Top	115-100	Loss	-105	7 h 17 m	Show
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4.5 The Milwaukee Bucks are certainly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 23-22 overall and a ridiculous 30-14-1 ATS in 45 games. While there was value in backing them during the first half of the year, that value has all been zapped up now. Milwaukee has no business being the favorite on the road to the Orlando Magic tonight. While the Bucks come into this game getting a ton of love from the betting public, the Magic are getting none. That's because they have lost six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall coming in. They have at least been competitive during this stretch as five of their last six losses have come by 10 points or less. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Milwaukee and Orlando. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings. In fact, Orlando is 17-0 straight up in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee dating back to 2005. If that's not great evidence as to why you should back the Magic, then I don't know what is. Orlando is 10-1 ATS in home games after having lost 12 or more of its last 15 games over the past two seasons. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Orlando. The Magic beat the Bucks 101-85 at home in their lone meeting of 2014-15. Bet the Magic Thursday.
01-28-15	Oklahoma City Thunder v. New York Knicks +9		92-100	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9 The New York Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. At 8-37 on the season, they are tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in the Eastern Conference. There's no question in my mind that the Knicks are much better than their record would indicate. New York simply lost a ton of close games in the first half of the season, and had some key injuries to boot. Well, this team is starting to get healthy, and the results have been much better here of late. Carmelo Anthony is back in the fold now, and they are getting some key contributions from players they recently signed like Langston Galloway (12.1 ppg in 8 games) and Lance Thomas (9.8 ppg in five games). The Knicks are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home dogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs. Their only loss came at Charlotte 71-76 as 9-point road dogs in a game where Carmelo Anthony sat out since it was the second of a back-to-back. Anthony returns to the lineup tonight and makes all the difference for this team when he's in there. Plus, the Knicks come in well-rested and ready to go as they have had a whopping three days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Saturday. There's no question they will the be the fresher, more prepared team. Oklahoma City is a tired squad right now, and it's starting to show in its play. The Thunder will be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost at Atlanta 93-103, at Cleveland 98-108, and only beat lowly Minnesota 92-84 as 13-point home favorites during this stretch. Kevin Durant did sit out against the Timberwolves due to a sore toe as he was a late scratch in that game. Well, Durant isn't expected to play tonight either, and there's no way the Thunder should be this heavily favored on the road without him. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Thunder are just 10-15 SU & 8-16-1 ATS on the road this season. OKC is 4-13 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season. The Thunder are 4-12 ATS versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this year. The Thunder are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 road games. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to New York. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.
01-28-15	Sacramento Kings +7 v. Toronto Raptors		102-119	Loss	-115	8 h 33 m	Show
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7 The Toronto Raptors certainly overachieved in the first third of the season. They opened 24-7 and were in first place in the Eastern Conference. As expected, they weren't able to keep up the torrid pace they were on, and they have been overvalued ever since. Indeed, the Raptors are just 6-8 straight up and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Their six wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia (twice), Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit and Indiana. Only Milwaukee (23-22) has a winning record, while the other four teams are all at least 11 games below .500. Yes, the Sacramento Kings do not have a very good record at all at 16-27, but they also play in the stacked Western Conference. They would be a playoff contender if they played in the East. They have gone 4-2 SU in their last six meetings with the Raptors, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. The main reason I'm on the Kings tonight is the rest factor. The Kings come into this game on four days' rest, so they will be ready to go following a long layoff. They will also be motivated for a win after dropping six straight coming in with five of those coming against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today. Four of those losses came by single-digits, and three by 4 points or less. Toronto is in a terrible situation compared to Sacramento in the rest department. The Raptors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, which is a very difficult spot in the NBA. I just don't believe they are going to be able to match the effort they get from the Kings tonight because of it. Plays on road teams (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 85-45 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. The Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference foes. Roll with the Kings Wednesday.
01-28-15	Portland Trail Blazers +6 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	94-99	Win	100	7 h 3 m	Show
20* Blazers/Cavaliers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +6 The Portland Trail Blazers (32-13) got some tremendous news when LaMarcus Aldridge announced he wasn't going to have surgery on his hand. In his first game back from injury, he posted 26 points and nine rebounds in a win over the Wizards on Saturday. At 32-13, he knows how important it is for the Blazers to to try and get a top-four seed in the West. The Cleveland Cavaliers are rolling right now, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. However, with this winning streak comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Cavaliers cannot live up to. I still don't believe they are as good as the top teams in the West, like Portland. This is a terrible spot for Cleveland and a great one for Portland. The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off a 103-95 win at Detroit last night. Kyrie Irving played 42 minutes, Lebron James played 36 minutes, and Kevin Love played 32 minutes. Irving will have to chase around Damian Lillard for four quarters, too, which is a tough task to ask. It's going to be very hard for the Cavaliers to come back with a great effort tonight given the situation. They certainly won't be able to match the energy level of the Blazers, who come in on three days' rest after last playing on Saturday. Plus, the Blazers will be highly motivated after having lost five of their last seven games overall. Four of those five losses came by 6 points or less. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 7-1 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Cavs, including a 101-82 home win over Cleveland in their first meeting of 2014-15. Take the Blazers Wednesday.
01-27-15	Chicago Bulls +10 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	113-111	Win	100	10 h 28 m	Show
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +10 The Chicago Bulls have been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 16-6 away from home this year where they are outscoring teams by an average of 3.3 points per game. They are one of the rare exception of an NBA team that plays better on the road than they do at home. I like what I've seen from Chicago here of late. It put together back-to-back upset wins over San Antonio (104-81) as 5.5-point home dogs and Dallas (102-98) as 5.5-point road dogs. The Bulls did come back and lose to Miami at home last time out, but that was clearly a letdown spot off those two huge wins. They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against the Warriors as well. The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 36-6. They have also gone a ridiculous 28-12-2 ATS in all games this season. Well, now that we are halfway through the season, the odds have finally caught up to them. The betting public continues to back them with regularity, but they are simply laying numbers that they cannot cover with any kind of consistency, including tonight. Last time out, the Warriors came in as 18-point favorites over the Celtics on Sunday. It was only the second time all year they were favored by 18 points or more. They failed to cover, and barely won the game 114-111 at home against a Boston team that is nowhere near the caliber of this Chicago squad. Chicago will be out for revenge from a 102-112 home loss to the Warriors in their first meeting this season. It is 19-8 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more against an opponent over the last two seasons. Tom Thibodeau is 39-21 ATS in road gams when playing 8 or more games in 14 days as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 55-32 ATS in road games after having won two of their last three games as the coach of the Bulls. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
01-26-15	Minnesota Timberwolves +16 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		84-92	Win	100	8 h 30 m	Show
15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +16 The Minnesota Timberwolves (7-36) are showing tremendous value tonight as 16-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder. I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive dogs to an Oklahoma City team that just isn't quite right. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as they have been very competitive against some quality teams. They beat Indiana 110-101 as 11-point road dogs to start the streak. They also lost at Phoenix 99-110 as 14-point road dogs, beat Denver 113-105 as 11.5-point road dogs, and lost to Atlanta 100-112 as 17.5-point road dogs. Oklahoma City is coming off back-to-back blowout losses at Atlanta (93-103) as 4-point dogs and at Cleveland (98-108) as 3-point dogs. Now, the Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. This is about as tough of a situation as it gets. After a five-game road trip, they will struggle in their first game back homel, which is also a difficult spot in the NBA. Minnesota has played Oklahoma City pretty tough here of late. It has only lost by more than 10 points once in its last six meetings with the Thunder. The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes. OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Monday games. Take the Timberwolves Monday.
01-26-15	Orlando Magic +12.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies	Top	94-103	Win	100	8 h 30 m	Show
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +12.5 The Orlando Magic (15-32) have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Whenever a team gets on an ATS losing streak like the one the Magic are on, the betting public tends to look to fade them. As a result, teams like this start to show some pretty good value against the spread. I believe that's the case here with the Magic, who have lost four of their last five games by 10 points or less, so they have at least been competitive. One of those losses was a 96-106 home loss to Memphis on January 16th just 10 days ago. Look for the Magic to be out for revenge in the rematch here. The Memphis Grizzlies have won six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 ATS. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them. Well, only one of those six wins during this stretch came by more than 12 points. That was a 101-83 home victory over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers as 17.5-point favorites last time out. Orlando has played Memphis very tough in recent meetings. In fact, Orlando has only lost once to Memphis by more than 12 points in the last 16 meetings in this series. That makes for a 15-1 system backing the Magic pertaining to tonight's 12.5-point spread. Memphis is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Orlando is 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Grizzlies are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Magic Monday.

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