Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Spurs/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Denver -6.5 

The Nuggets lost 96-101 to the Spurs in Game 1.  I was on the Spurs in that game, and they pulled the upset.  But I’m reversing courses here and taking the Nuggets to get the win and cover in Game 2 in what is essentially a must-win game. 

The Spurs are content with winning one game in Denver, and they were aided by some great performances from their role players in White, Gay and Forbes, who all scored 14-plus points.  They were also helped by poor shooting by the Nuggets. 

Indeed, the Nuggets shot just 42% for the game and 6-of-28 (21.4%) from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again as this is one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, and the Spurs have the worst defense they’ve had in years.  The Spurs shot 48.2% as a team and 46.7% from 3-point range in Game 1, also numbers that will be hard for them to match. 

The Spurs are 17-25 on the road this season, while the Nuggets are 34-8 at home.  Take the Nuggets Tuesday. 

20* Nets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -7.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers shot just 40.7% in Game 1 and were upset as a result.  They will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight to square this season.  Look for them to get the win and cover at home tonight. 

Joel Embiid did play in Game 1 after being questionable leading up to it.  He hadn’t practiced before.  Now that the 76ers got a feel for playing with him again, they should be much sharper offensively in Game 2.  And look for them to get a lot more from Ben Simmons, JJ Redick and Tobias Harris, who weren’t assertive enough in Game 1. 

I think there’s value here with the 76ers considering they were 8-point favorites in Game 1, and now they are only 7.5 to 8-point favorites in Game 2.  The Nets are simply happy with stealing one game and won’t bring the same kind of effort for Game 2.  They will have a hard time matching the intensity the 76ers play with tonight. 

The 76ers are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Philadelphia is 31-11 at home this season.  Bet the 76ers Monday. 

15* Pistons/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +12.5 

The Detroit Pistons played about as well as anyone down the stretch just to make the playoffs.  They went 19-12 SU & 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall to get to .500 on the season and snag the final playoff spot in the East. 

And many of those losses came without Blake Griffin, who has an excellent chance to return to the lineup for the playoffs.  The Pistons got a break with their Game 1 being on Sunday, meaning they have been off for three days since last playing on Wednesday.  That should give him ample time to get rested and ready. 

Even if Griffin doesn’t play, the Pistons are still good enough to stay within 12.5 points of the Bucks, who are also banged up.  The Bucks are likely to be without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol and Tony Snell to start the playoffs.  And Giannis is banged up with a calf injury.  The Bucks did not play well down the stretch with all these injuries, and it’s asking them a lot to cover a spread this high in Game 1 with all their injuries. 

Dwane Casey is 16-2 ATS after leading their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime in all games he has coached.  The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Detroit is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference quarterfinals games.  Roll with the Pistons Sunday. 

20* Thunder/Blazers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5 

I’m surprised the Portland Trail Blazers are actually favored against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They shouldn’t be favored in any game in this series, and as a result I’ll take the Thunder as road underdogs in Game 1 of this series. 

The Blazers were swept by the Pelicans in the playoffs last year, getting upset despite having home-court advantage.  And they are worse off this season with the loss of Jusuf Nurkic.  His loss hasn’t been felt to close out the regular season, but it will be felt in the playoffs. 

Now, Steven Adams’ job just got a whole lot easier, and he’s going to be a big factor in this series.  Lillard and McCollum are two great players, but they aren’t good enough on their own to beat the Thunder without Nurkic, and there just isn’t a whole lot of talent outside those two now. 

The Blazers will regret not losing their final game of the season, which meant they’d face the Thunder instead of the Jazz in the first round.  The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS against the Thunder this season, and that one-sided dominance is only going to continue.  They have no answer for Paul George and Russell Westbrook, who are better than Lillard and McCollum.  Portland is 7-24-2 ATS in its last 33 conference quarterfinals games.  Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Sunday. 

20* Spurs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +6 

There aren’t many series that have upset potential, but this is certainly one of them.  That’s because the experience and coaching of the Spurs can overcome the young, talented Nuggets in a seven-game series. 

I think the Spurs have a great chance to steal Game 1.  Greg Popovich once again overachieved based on expectations, and let’s not forget the Spurs still have two of the best players in the NBA in Aldridge and DeRozan.  They will be prepared for Game 1 tonight. 

The Nuggets will be making the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  They barely missed out on the playoffs on the final day of the season last year.  They could have used that experience, and I think nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1 of this series tonight. 

I also think the fact that Denver recently beat San Antonio by 28 at home has inflated this line.  But that was the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Spurs, and nobody throws away back-to-backs like Popovich.  In the other three meetings this season, the Spurs won by 8 and 1 at home, and only lost by 3 on the road. 

The Spurs are 26-8 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  San Antonio is 19-2 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference quarterfinal games.  Take the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday. 

15* Nets/76ers NBA Playoffs Opener on Philadelphia -5.5 

We are getting the Philadelphia 76ers cheap because Joel Embiid is doubtful.  It would be a bonus if he plays, but I’m not expecting it.  I still think the 76ers have enough to win this game by 6-plus points at home over the Nets in Game 1 Saturday. 

This is a great story that the Nets have put together this year, making the playoffs after being down in the dumps for years.  But that also means they’re inexperienced, and I’m not expecting them to be on their ‘A Game’ in Game 1 tonight because of it.  Nerves will be an issue, and by the time they settle down it will be too late. 

The 76ers still have four All-Stars and got their much-needed playoff experience last year.  They are still the more talented team with the likes of Simmons, Butler, Harris and Redick.  And they will get the job done at home today. 

Philadelphia is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four or five of its last six games this season.  The 76ers are 20-8 ATS in home games when playing on two days’ rest over the last three seasons.  Brooklyn is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games.  Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Saturday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3 

The Oklahoma City Thunder still have a lot to play for tonight.  If they beat the Bucks tonight, they would be the NO. 6 seed in the West.  A loss though, and they could finish anywhere from 6th to 8th.  They want to do anything possible to avoid the 8th spot and a matchup with the Warriors in the first round. 

The Bucks have nothing to play for.  They clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and the No. 1 seed overall, so they will have home-court advantage.  They are expected to rest Giannis, Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Pau Gasol, among others. 

We have one motivated team playing all their starters up against a non-motivated team resting all their starters.  It’s an easy choice here tonight folks.  Take the Thunder Wednesday. 

20* Magic/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte -2 

The Charlotte Hornets have to win tonight and have the Detroit Pistons lose on the road to the New York Knicks to get into the playoffs.  First things first.  They will win at home tonight over the Orlando Magic and handle their business. 

The Hornets have fought too hard to put themselves in this position to lose this game tonight.  They have gone 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS n their last 11 games overall, which includes upset wins over the Celtics, Raptors (twice), Spurs and Pistons. 

The Magic have already clinched a playoff spot and really don’t care whether or not they lose this game tonight.  There is some seeding at stake, but it’s minimal and not important because the top three teams in the East that they’d potentially face are all very formidable opponents in the Bucks, Raptors and 76ers. 

Charlotte owns Orlando, going 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  That domination continues tonight as the Hornets get the win and cover as short home favorites to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4 

The Miami Heat have lost four straight games and now trail the Pistons by one game for the final playoff spot in the East.  The Pistons have also lost four straight, opening the door for both the Heat and Hornets to catch them. 

No matter what happens, you know that the Heat will be motivated to win what could likely be the final home game of Hall of Fame Dwyane Wade, who is retiring at season’s end. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have absolutely nothing to play for.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed in the East.  That’s why they are resting Joel Embiid and J.J. Redick tonight due to minor injuries.  They want nothing to do with winning this game tonight. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 o more points, off two or more consecutive road losses are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 15-5 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  Bet the Heat Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets +6.5 

This is a must-win game for the Hornets.  They trail the 8th place Pistons by two games and each team has three games remaining.  If Charlotte were to go 3-0 and Detroit 1-2, they’d get in the playoffs. 

That’s because the Hornets have swept the season series with the Pistons thus far, winning all three meetings.  And now they go for the season sweep and are somehow catching 6.5 points against a team they’ve owned. 

The Hornets are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Pistons are starting to feel the pressure of making the playoffs.  They are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall.  Bet the Hornets Sunday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are always a tough out at home.  And the Oklahoma City Thunder certainly aren’t playing well enough to be laying 6.5 points on the road to the Timberwolves. 

The Thunder are just 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Timberwolves have won three of their last five, including upset home wins over the Warriors and Heat.  Minnesota is now 25-14 SU at home this season. 

The Timberwolves have owned the Thunder this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings and will be going for the season sweep today.  They have won outright as underdogs in all three meetings. 

The Thunder are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference teams.  Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in Sunday games this season.  The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with OKC.  Take the Timberwolves Sunday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are 39-40 and hanging on to a playoff spot, just one game ahead of the 9th-place Heat and two games ahead of the 10th-place Hornets.  They need a win tonight. 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown.  They just clinched the top seed not only in the East, but overall, too.  They did so with an impressive comeback against the 76ers in the final minutes.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for in their final three games, and they should be resting starters. 

Brooklyn also wants revenge form a 121-131 home loss to the Bucks on April 1st earlier this week.  They don’t have to wait long to get their revenge tonight.  And they come in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go. 

The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on two days’ rest.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Nets Saturday. 

15* Celtics/Pacers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1 

The Indiana Pacers just lost a 112-114 heartbreaker at the buzzer at Boston on March 29th.  They don’t have to wait long for revenge now as they play them a week later, but at home this time around.  And these teams are tied for 4th and 5th place in the East, so it’s a huge game likely determining which team gets home-court advantage in the first round. 

The Pacers have been dynamite at home this season.  They are 29-10 SU at home this year, while Boston is just 19-20 SU on the road.  The home team has won all three meetings between these teams this season. 

The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its lsat 21 Friday games.  The Celtics are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games off an ATS win.  Indiana is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pacers Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3 

The Miami Heat are currently in 9th place in the East.  They are a half-game behind both the Magic and Nets for the 7th and 8th spots.  This is a must-win game for them Friday night in Minnesota, and they should get the win and cover here. 

Minnesota has been playing without Robert Covington, Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson, and they remain out.  The Timberwolves are just kind of going through the motions right now, going 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. 

The Heat are 11-3 ATS in non-conference road games this season.  Miami is 26-12 ATS in all road games this season.  The Heat are 45-16-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Heat Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The three NBA teams with the worst records in the league get an equal chance at the No. 1 pick this year.  Well, Cleveland is basically assured of being a bottom three team now.  So they can afford to try here down the stretch.  And they’ve done a decent job of that as they are 8-6-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have not packed it in yet. 

I know their six-game losing streak doesn’t look good, but when you look at who they’ve played it’s easier to make sense of it.  They’ve lost to five playoff teams in the Clippers, Bucks, Celtics, Spurs and Clippers, and they also lost on the road at Phoenix.  Now they are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest since that loss to the Suns Monday. 

The Kings were recently officially eliminated from the playoffs.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including their 25-point home loss to Houston on Tuesday.  I just don’t foresee the Kings being motivated enough to put away the Cavs by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this 9.5-point spread tonight. 

Cleveland is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  Plays against home teams (Sacramento) - off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more, in April games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Cavaliers Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1 

Don’t look now but the Clippers are currently only a half-game behind the Jazz for the 5th seed in the West.  Prior to the season, nobody could have foreseen this coming.  They lost Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan over the past few seasons, and traded away leading scorer Tobias Harris prior to the deadline. 

The Clippers haven’t missed a beat, and this is one of Doc Rivers’ best coaching jobs ever.  They play team basketball as well as anyone in the NBA, lacking a true superstar, but loaded with players who are playing their roles to perfection.  And few teams have been playing better than the Clippers down the stretch.  They are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. 

While the Clippers come in fresh on two days’ rest having last played on Sunday, the Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a trip to Sacramento Tuesday night.  The Kings play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, so that game will have taken a lot out of the Rockets.  I don’t think Houston will have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Clippers have won both meetings with the Rockets this season by a combined 24 points.  Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston.  The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a. Winning road record.  Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Houston is 1-11 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons -3.5 

I love the situation for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  This is a home-and-home with the Pacers, and the Pistons lost 102-111 in Indiana on Monday.  Now they don’t have to wait long for revenge as they get them at home this time around Wednesday and will likely have Blake Griffin back in the lineup after he sat out Monday’s game. 

The Pistons are an incredible 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Meanwhile, the Pacers are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. 

The Pacers are likely to be without three starters tonight.  They were already without Victor Oladipo, but now both Wesley Matthews (hamstring) and Darren Collison (groin) have been downgraded to out for this contest.  It’s revenge time for Detroit tonight as they get their 12th straight home win and cover.  Take the Pistons Wednesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7 

The Orlando Magic are a half-game back of the Heat for 8th, one game back of the Nets for 7th and 1.5 games back of the Pistons for 6th.  They have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs here with just five games to play.  And I know they’ll be max motivated tonight against the Raptors. 

It’s safe to say the Magic have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch with hopes of making the playoffs.  Indeed, the Magic are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes upset road wins over both Miami and Indiana. 

The Raptors are stuck in limbo.  They are three games out of first place in the East with five games to go, and 4.5 games ahead of 3rd place.  They really have nothing to play for the rest of the way, and it’s starting to show.  Don’t be surprised if they continue giving their starters some rest with nothing to play for. 

Nobody has played Toronto tougher than Orlando this season.  The Magic are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Raptors.  They only lost by 2 at home as 7-point dogs, won by 29 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and won by 15 on the road as 6.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 7 points in the 4th and final meeting, which is simply too much given what’s at stake for them. 

Toronto is 0-7 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  Orlando is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Magic are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  Orlando is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Magic Monday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets are trying to secure a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th place Magic.  They can’t afford losses at this point, and they have been playing with a sense of urgency here of late because of it. 

The Nets have handled the pressure well by going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall despite playing five of those six games on the road.  They won their lone home game by 14 over Boston on Saturday, and now have a day to get ready for the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Bucks are a mash unit right now.  They are without Tony Snell, Nikola Mirotic, Malcolm Brogdon and Pau Gasol.  Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are questionable after sitting yesterday, meaning they’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Hawks.  The Bucks would be wise to rest these guys again because they basically have the No. 1 seed locked up in the East with a three-game lead with only five games to play. 

I know I’m going to get a max motivated, healthy Nets team today.  You don’t know what you’re going to get from the Bucks.  That makes this an easy choice.  The Nets are also 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games. Bet the Nets Monday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5 

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They are 16-8 SU & 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  The Pistons are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games. Look for them to make easy work of the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. 

The Blazers are in a tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They are already short-handed missing two of their three best players in Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum.  They were able to get by the Bulls and Hawks without them, but the Pistons are a different animal. 

Detroit is 14-3 ATS in home games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on zero rest.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Detroit.  Take the Pistons Saturday. 

15* Hornets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Charlotte -2 

The Charlotte Hornets are 1.5 games out of 8th place in the Eastern Conference.  They need wins like blood right now, and I’ll gladly back them as short road favorites over the hapless Los Angeles Lakers, who have nothing to play for but pride. 

The Hornets are brimming with confidence right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Jeremy Lamb hit a half-court shot at the buzzer to beat the Raptors outright as 11.5-point dogs two games ago, and that shot makes them feel invincible.  They went on to upset the Spurs in overtime as 4.5-point dogs. 

Now, the Hornets are rested and ready to go as they come in on two days’ rest.  They are taking on a Lakers team that has completely folded down the stretch, going 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  The Lakers are missing a ton of key players due to injury, and Lebron James is on a minutes restriction.  They just don’t have the talent or the desire now to compete with Charlotte tonight. 

The Hornets are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Friday games.  The Lakers are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six Friday games.  The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Los Angeles.  Take the Hornets Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3.5 

The Atlanta Hawks have been the best-kept secret in the NBA here down the stretch.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them because they are just 27-48 on the season.  That has allowed for a great opportunity for sharp players to back them knowing that they are playing much better than their record. 

Indeed, the Hawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have won three straight, including upset home wins over Utah and Philadelphia to really show what they are capable of.  They also won by 10 on the road at New Orleans as 2.5-point favorites. 

Now, the Hawks come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh and ready to go against the Blazers.  The Blazers are getting too much respect for their blowout win at Chicago against the Bulls’ D-League team last time out.  But this is where the injuries to CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic really show up tonight against a Hawks team that is better than Portland minus those two key players. 

The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win.  Portland is 4-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover four or five of its last six ATS over the last three seasons.  Take the Hawks Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5 

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They trail the Indiana Pacers by one game for the 4th seed in the East, which would mean home-court advantage in the first round.  These teams will meet in the first round for sure, so home-court advantage will be huge.  The season series is tied 1-1, so this will determine the tiebreaker. 

Boston comes in on two days’ rest and fully healthy for the first time in a long time.  They are primed for a big effort at home, where they are 26-12 on the season.  They beat Indiana 135-108 in their lone home meeting this season, and a similar blowout can be expected. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how poorly the Pacers have been playing on the road here of late.  That’s where they really miss Victor Oladipo’s leadership and ability to get big buckets on the highway.  The Pacers are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games, losing by 10.7 points per game on average. 

Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers +9 

No team is playing better than the Los Angeles Clippers right now.  The Clippers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back against Portland.  And yet they’re still getting no respect as 9-point dogs to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. 

This is a depleted Bucks team that is playing without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tony Snell and Donte DiVencenzo.  And the Bucks are in a massive letdown spot off their huge win over the Rockets on Tuesday on National TV.  That was an MVP battle between Harden and Giannis and there was a lot of hype leading into it.  I expect them to fall flat tonight. 

Milwaukee has only won one of its last 14 meetings with the Clippers by more than 9 points.  That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Clippers based on this 9-point spread.  Bet the Clippers Thursday. 

20* Rockets/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Houston Rockets +4 

The Houston Rockets are 14-2 in their last 16 games overall with their two losses coming by a combined 3 points.  They are playing their best basketball of the season and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks, who have just recently been hit hard by injuries that will have them more worried about getting healthy for the playoffs than winning games down the stretch. 

The Bucks will be without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Pau Gasol tonight.  The good news for them is that they have a four-game lead over the Raptors first 1st place in the East, and a 4.5-game lead over the Warriors for the 1st overall seed in the playoffs.  They can certainly afford some losses here down the stretch. 

Milwaukee is 13-29 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +4 

The Charlotte Hornets are just two games out of 8th place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Miami Heat for the final playoff spot.  They have come up clutch by winning and covering against Minnesota, Boston and Toronto in three consecutive games, including their buzzer-beater from half court to beat the Raptors on the road.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence now. 

The Spurs are going to make the playoffs.  They are simply playing for positioning at this point, and that’s it.  They can’t get home court in the first round, but they could get anywhere from the 5th to the 8th seed.  In all reality, that’s not a lot to play for.  Don’t be surprised to see Greg Popovich start to rest players when he gets the chance here down the stretch. 

The Hornets went into San Antonio and won 108-93 as 7-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  And now they are catching 4 points at home in the rematch in what is a must-win for them, and not a must-win for the Spurs.  It’s especially important considering the Hornets go on the road for six of their next seven games after this contest. 

Charlotte is 13-1 ATS vs. bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 9.5 points per game in this spot.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Hornets Tuesday. 

15* Nets/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Brooklyn +6.5 

The Brooklyn Nets have really turned it on with the playoffs approaching.  They have won six of their last nine with their only three losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the West in OKC, Utah and the LA Clippers.  But they’ve also gone on the road and beaten the Lakers, Kings and Hawks during this stretch. 

Now, the Nets come in on two days’ rest after beating the Lakers on Friday.  And while they’re fully healthy, the same cannot be said for the Pistons, who are missing CJ McCollum.  They have been able to squeak by Indiana, Dallas and Detroit at home in their first three games without him.  And if they win tonight, it won’t be by more than 6 points. 

Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.  The Nets are 14-4 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Brooklyn is 13-2 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Nets Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They have lost four of their last five both straight up and ATS, but all five games were against playoff teams.  In fact, they have played nine straight games against playoff teams coming in, so their recent struggles can largely be attributed to the schedule. 

Now, the Thunder finally get to play a non-playoff team in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are so decimated by injuries right now that they can’t possibly be competitive tonight.  They are playing without Jaren Jackson Jr, Kyle Anderson, CJ Miles, Avery Bradley and Joakim Noah tonight. 

It’s no wonder the Grizzlies have lost four of their last five games overall despite playing four non-playoff teams. They have played five of their last six against non-playoff teams as well.  They are coming off a 13-point home loss to Minnesota, and a similar beat down can be expected in OKC’s favor tonight. 

Memphis is 1-10 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.  Oklahoma City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on two days’ rest.  The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Denver Nuggets are neck-and-neck with the Golden State Warriors for 1st place in the Western Conference.  They actually lead the Warriors by 0.5 games for 1st place.  They know their best chance to beat them in a 7-game series is to have home-court advantage, so they should be max motivated in every game they play the rest of the way.

The Indiana Pacers are in a different position.  They certainly want to get home games if they can, but there’s no doubt the Celtics catch them and pass them for 4th place before the season is over.  The Pacers only hold a one-game lead over the Celtics for 4th place.  And this is an Indiana team playing without its best player in Oladipo, and possibly missing Darren Collison Sunday, who is questionable with a quad strain.

Reality has certainly hit the Pacers hard here of late being without Oladipo.  They have lost four straight and two of those losses came by double-digits.  Meanwhile, this max-motivated Nuggets team has put themselves in this great position of getting the No. 1 seed in the West by winning six straight coming in.  They’ll make it 7 in a row Sunday with a win and cover at Indiana.

The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Pacers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a loss.  Denver is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Indiana.  Take the Nuggets Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5 

The Washington Wizards are still clinging on to hope of making the playoffs.  The team they are chasing is the Miami Heat, and they get a shot at the Heat tonight.  This is clearly a must-win game for the Wizards, and I fully expect them to lay it all on the line to get the victory at home Saturday. 

The Wizards gave a big effort on Thursday but came up short in a 5-point home loss to Denver as 8.5-point dogs.  They had yesterday off, and they also have two more days off after this game before embarking on a four-game road trip.  That’s another reason they should be ‘all in’ tonight knowing they have two days off after this. 

Miami is in a very difficult situation.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss at Milwaukee last night, and they’ll also be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  Making matters worse is the fact that they are expected to be without both Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder. 

Washington is 17-5 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season, including 13-3 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Washington is 22-13 ATS at home this season.  Roll with the Wizards Saturday. 

20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -2.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers rested Joel Embiid last night and still beat the Hornets.  Now they’ll have Embiid back for this game against the Boston Celtics, which helps ease the effect of the back-to-back situation. 

No player is more important to their team than Embiid.  He is coming off a 40-point, 15-rebound effort in an impressive road win over the Bucks.  And he averages 27 points, 14 rebounds and 2 blocks per game this season. 

The 76ers should be highly motivated for this game.  They’ve already lost the first three meetings of the season with the Celtics, and they desperately want to avoid the season sweep.  Now, they get the Celtics in Philadelphia, where they are 28-9 on the season. 

The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +2 

The Charlotte Hornets really need wins right now.  They are 2.5 games back of 8th place Miami for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Now they’re back home after a tough four-game road trip and should be able to take advantage as they are 21-14 at home this season. 

This is a great spot to fade the 76ers.  They are coming off a huge upset win at Milwaukee on Sunday, and they have Boston on deck tomorrow night.  They are in a letdown spot off that win over the Bucks, and they are also in a sandwich spot with the Celtics on deck. 

The 76ers have done the Hornets a favor by deciding to rest their best player in Joel Embiid (27.3 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG).  I’m not sure there’s another player in the NBA that is more important to their team than Embiid.  He had 40 and 15 against Milwaukee the other night. 

Philadelphia is 6-18 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Charlotte has lost by 2, 1 and 3 points in its three meetings with Philadelphia this season with two of those coming in overtime.  It’s safe to say the Hornets want to exact some revenge as well and avoid the season sweep.  Roll with the Hornets Tuesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6 

The Washington Wizards are fighting to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race.  They are 3.5 games out of 8th place.  They have kept themselves alive by going 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  This is been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA down the stretch. 

The Utah Jazz are coming off three straight wins and covers over Phoenix, Minnesota and Brooklyn.  I think they are overvalued now, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight as they are laying 6 points on the road here.  The Jazz are just .500 on the road this season, while the Wizards are 21-13 SU & 21-12-1 ATS at home. 

The Wizards are 7-0 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season.  Washington is 8-1 ATS in home games after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread this season.  Utah is 7-15 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7.5 

The Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 120-129 loss at Boston on Saturday.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Orlando Magic today after losing that shootout. 

The Magic need wins like blood.  They are in 9th place in the East, just one game back of the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot.  And they come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest. 

The Magic have certainly had the Hawks’ number in their two meetings this season.  They won 122-103 at Atlanta on January 21st as 2-point dogs.  They also blew out the Hawks 124-108 on the road as 1-point favorites on February 10th.   

It should be more of the same given the situational and motivational advantages the Magic have in this one.  And the Magic finally get the Hawks at home for the first time this season.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2 

The San Antonio Spurs have been on fire since returning from their annual Rodeo Road trip.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And considering they are 27-7 at home this season, they should be more than 2-point home favorites over the Blazers tonight. 

San Antonio will be paying the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it’s only their 2nd game in four days because they had two days off prior to the Knicks game last night.  And they beat the Knicks by 26, which allowed them to rest their starters late and save them for tonight. 

The Blazers are also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-110 win in New Orleans last night.  Now they have the long flight to San Antonio to deal with, while the Spurs got to stay at home and sleep in their own beds.  That’s a huge advantage for the home team. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Spurs won their two most recent home meetings with the Blazers by 13 and 11 points.  San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with Portland. 

The Spurs are 17-1 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  They are winning by 14.5 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat +5.5 

The Miami Heat are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They have won five of their last six, including a 34-point win over the Pistons last time out.  They are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. 

The Heat are playing well enough to hang with or possibly upset the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA.  That has them overvalued here down the stretch. 

A big reason for the solid play by the Heat of late has been the return of PG Goran Dragic from injury.  He makes all the difference for this team, especially offensively.  The Heat have scored 114 points or more in six of their last nine games overall, and 104-plus in eight of those. 

Miami is 21-10 ATS as an underdog this season.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucks.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Milwaukee.  Bet the Heat Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7.5 

The Orlando Magic need wins and they need them in a hurry.  They are currently in 9th place in the East, two games behind Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot.  So motivation won’t be a problem for them moving forward. 

The good news for the Magic is that they get to beat up on the 17-51 Cleveland Cavaliers today.  It’s a Cavs team that is depleted by injuries right now.  They are expected to be without Dellavedova and Nance Jr. today, and they were already missing three key guys.  They could be without more, too. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Miami Heat come in playing well having won four of their last five games overall.  And they’re coming off a blowout loss to the Raptors in their only defeat, which I think adds to the line value we are getting on the Heat at home tonight in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

A big reason for Miami’s strong play of late has been the return of PG Goran Dragic from injury.  They are hitting on all cylinders offensively with him running the show now.  The Heat have scored at least 114 points in six of their last eight games overall. 

The Pistons are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after a recent stretch of strong play, and I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days, while the Heat come in on two days’ rest.  And the home team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. 

Detroit is 8-22 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Miami is 21-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last three years.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -10 

The Denver Nuggets come into this game highly motivated for a victory Tuesday night.  They have lost four of their last five coming in.  But now they’ve had some time to regroup, coming in on three days’ rest having last played on Friday.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 21 days out of the All-Star Break.  The schedule makers have done them no favors as they now have to play five of their next six on the road against some of the best teams in the NBA. 

It’s bad timing for the Timberwolves, who just had both Andrew Wiggins (Quad) and Karl-Anthony Towns (Knee) suffer recent injuries that kept them out of their game against the Knicks on Sunday.  And now both are highly questionable to play tonight as well. 

The Nuggets are 27-6 at home this season, while the Timberwolves are 9-25 on the road.  Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Houston Rockets.  They are starting to become overvalued now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That streak could come to an end tonight, and we’ll gladly take the points with the Hornets given the spot. 

Houston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping with a 94-93 win at Dallas Sunday.  And now the Rockets have the Warriors on deck Wednesday, so this is a sandwich game and a look ahead spot.  They won’t give their best effort against the Hornets tonight because of it. 

The Hornets will be giving their best effort.  They are one game behind the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  And they had yesterday off, so they’re rested and ready to go.  They also want revenge from a 103-108 home loss to the Rockets on February 27th just two weeks ago, only adding to their motivation. 

Houston is 21-44-2 ATS in its last 67 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  They tend to play to the level of their competition.  The road team is 3-0-2 ATS In the last five meetings.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2 

The Brooklyn Nets have turned it around by winning three straight.  They still trail the Pistons by a half-game in the East, and now they host the Pistons tonight.  The situation really favors the home favorite Nets in this one. 

Brooklyn comes in playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Meanwhile, Detroit will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 10 days.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated, more rested team at home tonight. 

The Pistons couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are currently after going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them now, especially considering how tough a spot this is for them. 

Brooklyn is 15-5 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Detroit is 8-21 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Brooklyn is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Nets Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +1 

The Miami Heat are balling out right now as they try and cling on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including upset wins over the Warriors and Hornets, and they’re only loss during this stretch came on the road against red-hot Houston by 3 as 9-point dogs. 

A big reason for the Heat’s recent resurgence has been health.  They are now as healthy as they’ve been all season.  Point guard Goran Dragic has returned to the lineup and made all the difference in the world for this team.  They are clearly clicking offensively now, scoring 114-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

The Raptors have been big money burners since losing Fred VanVleet to injury.  He’s one of the most valuable backup point guards in the NBA, and they miss him badly.  And now the Raptors are going to rest Kawhi Leonard today, which should make Miami’s job a whole lot easier. 

The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Toronto is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Raptors are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Heat.  Take the Heat Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers return home today highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses at Chicago and Houston.  Now they’re back home, where they are 25-9 on the season and outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

Plus, the 76ers are expected to get Joel Embiid back from an eight-game absence, which has been the main reason for their struggles of late.  And the Pacers have some injury concerns of their own as Victor Oladipo is out for the season, while Domantas Sabonis, Tyreke Evans and Alize Johnson are all questionable. 

Philadelphia is 26-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Indiana is 3-13 ATS in road games when revenging loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* Celtics/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston -6 

The Lakers are done for.  They faced four basically must-win games in their last four, and they went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS.  They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Considering they were max motivated and lost all four, it’s not a good sign for this team. 

Now, the Lakers have publicly stated that they will limit LeBron James’ minutes the rest of the way.  That’s because they are basically eliminate from playoff contention now unless they win out.  It’s a smart move by them because at this point getting the best draft pick they can is the priority. 

Conversely, the Boston Celtics are trying to move up in the Eastern Conference standings.  They have gotten it together by winning three of their last four, including a 33-point win at Golden State.  This team is playing for something, while the Lakers are not.  So I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in the Celtics tonight. 

Boston is 26-12 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Lakers are 4-15 ATS after allowing 105-plus points in five straight games this season.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 

This is such a favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers, who are already playing their best basketball of the season right now and getting no respect from oddsmakers.  The Clippers are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Jazz and Nuggets. 

Now, the Clippers come in on three days’ rest after last playing and beating the Lakers 113-105 on the road on Monday.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight back at the Staples Center, where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games winning by 27, 9 and 21 points. 

The Thunder are playing terrible right now, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  And it doesn’t get any easier for them tonight as they are in their toughest spot of the season tonight.  Not only will the Thunder be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they are coming off an overtime win at Portland last night. And they will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here.  They won’t have anything left in the tank for the rested Clippers tonight. 

The Thunder are 2-10 ATS off a division game this season.  The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in Friday games this season.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* 76ers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now due to their six-game winning streak.  We’ll ’sell high’ on them here tonight, especially off back-to-back upset road wins over Boston and Toronto.  This is clearly a letdown spot for them tonight, and they are laying too big of a price. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the 76ers, who are still without Joel Embiid and coming off a last-second loss to the Bulls.  They also blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost to the Warriors 117-120 recently.  But they’ve won three of their last five outside of those two toss-up losses.  In fact, the 76ers have only lost by more than 3 points once in their last 11 games overall.  There’s a ton of value on the 76ers tonight catching 7.5 points. 

The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They won by 28 at home in their first meeting this season, and also won by 8 on the road as 7-point dogs in their final meeting last season.  Their two losses came by 1 point at home as 3-point dogs and by 5 at home as 6.5-point dogs.  The Rockets haven’t been able to put them away. 

Houston is 10-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The 76ers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 Friday games.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -7 

One of the best-kept secrets since the All-Star Break is how the Dallas Mavericks are tanking.  If they pick in the Top 5 of the NBA draft, they get to keep their pick.  Otherwise they lose it.  They are trying desperately to get in the Top 5, and it’s showing with their play on the floor. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  All eight losses have come by 9 points or more.  That includes a recently 30-point home loss to Memphis and a 39-point road loss to Brooklyn.  If that’s not a sign of a team that’s tanking, I don’t know what is. 

The Magic will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses to the Cavs and 76ers.  That followed up their best stretch of the season in which they went 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games.  This is a Magic team fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the East, just one game back of the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orland) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The favorite is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Friday.

20* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK 

The Boston Celtics couldn’t possibly be in a tougher spot than they are tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  And they are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors last night.  I always like fading teams after facing Golden State, win or lose, but especially off a win.  Teams just never seem to get up for their next opponent after facing the Warriors. 

The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they’ll be rested and ready to go.  It’s a Kings team that is fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the Western Conference standings.  And the Kings are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games with quietly one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the Celtics and Kings straight up.  The home team is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Sacramento is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Boston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  And it’s a Celtics team that is still not playing well despite that win, going 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  I don’t think they’re magically cured after beating the Warriors. 

Boston is 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The Celtics are just 15-16 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road this season.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation.  And after blowing a 17-point lead at home to the Pelicans and losing 112-115 on Monday, they now get a shot at revenge just two days later.  I look for them to take advantage and get back on track with a blowout road win tonight. 

The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Pelicans, including their 132-111 road win in their first trip to New Orleans back on October 27th.  The Jazz are still 18-7 in their last 25 games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA. 

It’s usually a good spot to fade teams in the first game back home following a road trip, too.  Well, the Pelicans just completed their annual Mardi Gras road trip with 4 road games in 6 days at the Lakers, Suns, Nuggets and Jazz.  They now have to deal with the distractions back home, and they certainly won’t be as motivated to beat the Jazz for a 2nd time in 3 days. 

Utah is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games off a loss.  The Jazz are 19-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to New Orleans.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.  

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5 

The Detroit Pistons are in a great spot tonight.  They are up against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off an upset home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  This is clearly a flat spot for them now. 

The Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and make the playoffs.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over the Nuggets and Raptors.  Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Spurs and Celtics, two of the best home teams in the NBA. 

Detroit comes in on 2 days’ rest, so it will be by far the fresher team.  And the Pistons are taking on a Timberwolves team that is just 9-24 on the road this season.  Minnesota is just 1-8 SU in its last nine road games with its only win coming at the New York Knicks, which is far from impressive against that tanking team.  Detroit is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. 

The Pistons have the Timberwolves’ number, going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 14-4 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies keep battling night in and night out.  That is evident by the fact that they have only lost one game by more than 6 points in their last nine games, which came on the road on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have upset the Lakers at home and upset the Mavs by 30 on the road here recently, and they only lost by 4 at OKC as 9.5-point dogs last time out after blowing a 13-point lead late. 

It think we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies and ‘sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The betting public is all over them now.  Consider this.  Memphis was only a 5-point road dog at Portland in their last meeting, and now they are 6.5-point home dogs to Portland in the rematch.   

They’re bigger underdogs at home than they were on the road.  That’s an obvious sign that the Blazers are overvalued right now.  Plus, Memphis was a 3-point favorite in its last home meetings with Portland this season.  They won that game 92-83.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -1 

The San Antonio Spurs have gotten back on track since returning from their disastrous eight-game rodeo road trip.  They have put together back-to-back blowout home wins and covers over Detroit by 12 as 4.5-point favorites and Oklahoma City by 14 as 5-point favorites. 

Now, the Spurs are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here against the Denver Nuggets.  And it should come as no surprise they’ve turned it around at home considering they are now 24-7 SU & 20-11 ATS at home this season. 

Plus, home-court advantage has been huge in this series as well.  The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Spurs are a perfect 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They basically just have to win to cover as 1-point home favorites tonight. 

The Nuggets come in scuffling a bit with back-to-back upset home losses to Utah as 7.5-point favorites and New Orleans as 13.5-point favorites.  I expect the Spurs to continue their upward trajectory with another win here, while the Nuggets suffer their third straight defeat.   

The Spurs are 17-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  San Antonio is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets, who have lost three straight both SU and ATS to fall to below .500 on the season at 32-33.  They are the team in the playoff hunt here, and they are the one that is likely to bounce back from bad performances. 

The Dallas Mavericks aren’t likely to care nearly as much about their recent bad performances.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by 9 points or more.  They are allowing 114.9 points per game and 47.2% shooting in their last seven games. 

Plays on home favorites (Brooklyn) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent that was also beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. 

Brooklyn is 25-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS when revenging a same-season loss.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Take the Nets Monday.

20* Rockets/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Boston -2 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Boston Celtics, who have lost four of their last five coming in.  But three of those losses came on the road, including two to the top two teams in the East in Milwaukee and Toronto.  And the other loss was at home on the 2nd of a back-to-back against the hot Blazers. 

But the Celtics got back on track with an 11-point home win over the Wizards on Friday.  And they are still 24-9 SU & 20-13 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites here against the Rockets is a huge discount. 

Houston actually has a losing 15-16 SU & 11-19-1 ATS record on the road this season.  The Celtics are 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 6 points or less this season.  Boston is 8-0 ATS after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 11.3 points per game in this spot.  The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5 

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS at home this season.  I think we’re getting a discount on the Mavericks today because they are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule. 

Now they face a Memphis team that they can handle.  The Grizzlies are just 6-23 SU in their last 29 games overall and are playing for nothing but pride.  They are short-handed right now due to all their injuries and the trades they’ve made. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series, especially when the Mavericks have been at home.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Grizzlies, winning by 34, 9 and 4 points.  Dating back further, the Mavs are 35-10 SU & 26-19 ATS in their last 45 home meetings with Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas as well.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday. 

20* Blazers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -5 

The Toronto Raptors are 26-6 at home this season and trying to chase down the Milwaukee Bucks for first place in the Eastern Conference.  I like the value we are getting on the Raptors at home here today as only 5-point favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Blazers, who are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s also a tough spot for the Blazers, who will be playing their 5th straight road game.  They took advantage of a tired Celtics team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out and pulled the upset. 

The task won’t be so easy today against the Raptors, who come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh and ready to go.  They are coming off their own win over the Celtics in blowout fashion by 23.  And the Blazers will be without two key bench players in Evan Turner and Enes Kanter, who has provided a big spark for them since being acquired from the Knicks. 

Toronto beat Portland 130-105 at home last year.  The Raptors are 18-6 ATS in home games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Raptors Friday. 

20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -7 

The Denver Nuggets are now 27-4 SU & 22-9 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game at home.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season and playing as well as basically anyone in the NBA.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those five wins coming by 9 points or more. 

The Utah Jazz are in a tough spot tonight.  They needed a second half comeback to beat the Clippers 111-105 at home last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Nuggets come in rested having yesterday off following their 121-112 home win over the Thunder on Tuesday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Jazz winning all five games by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.2 points per game. 

Denver is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Denver is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss this season, winning by 16.7 points per game in this spot.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

I really like the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road losses to the Pelicans and Grizzlies.  Now they have a chance to avenge their loss to the Pelicans only four days after losing to them on Saturday. 

The problem for the Lakers of late has been the Lebron James injury, coupled with the fact that they have now played eight of their last nine games on the road.  In their only home game during this stretch, they upset the Rockets 111-106 as 3-point dogs in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  Now they are back home again and are much more comfortable here. 

The Lakers are 17-12 at home this season, while the Pelicans are just 9-23 on the road.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  I think we get a big effort from James and company at home Wednesday night as they try and chase down the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenge a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 24-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 20-8 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs -4 

This has all the makings of a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs and ’sell high’ on the Detroit Pistons.  These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions here of late, which has created some artificial line value on the Spurs tonight. 

The Spurs went just 1-7 SU in their annual Rodeo Road Trip.  It was the worst they’ve played all season.  And they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them now.  But this has been a completely different team at home, and they are glad to be back home where they are 22-7 on the season and are looking forward to righting the ship tonight. 

We’ll ’sell high’ on the Pistons, who are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But the Pistons have only beaten two teams with winning records during this stretch, and both were at home.  They haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as they are just 11-17 in road games. 

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 79-37 (68.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  They are winning by 12.7 points per game in this spot.  The Pistons are 7-20 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 

It’s safe to say the Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first three games back from the break.  After losing by a single point at Milwaukee, they proceeded to go on the road and get blown out by Chicago and Toronto. 

But now, the Celtics will be back home for the first time since the break.  And despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they should still be fresh because they had two days off prior to that game with Toronto last night.  Plus, no starters played more than 27 minutes for the Celtics last night, a hidden advantage that softens the effect of the back-to-back. 

So we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Celtics after losing three straight on the road, and we’ll ’sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed to come back from a 4th quarter deficit to beat the Cavaliers on the road last time out.  And I just think they’re getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now. 

The Celtics are 23-8 SU & 19-12 ATS at home this season, while the Blazers are just 13-15 SU & 13-15 ATS on the road.  Boston is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 20-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons.  Boston is 14-2 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -3 

The Denver Nuggets are 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short number for them to be laying with how well they play at home.  And they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season. 

The Nuggets have come out of the All-Star Break on a mission.  They beat Dallas 114-104 as 6.5-point road favorites and the Clippers 123-96 as 9.5-point home favorites.  And now they can get a stranglehold on the division with another win over the Thunder.  They beat the Thunder 105-98 on the road and 109-98 at home in their two meetings this season.  They would win the tiebreaker with a win tonight. 

The Thunder are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at New Orleans by 9 as 4.5-point favorites, needed double-overtime to beat Utah 148-147 at home, and lost at home to Sacramento 116-119 as 5.5-point favorites.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers once again tonight. 

Denver is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins this season.  It is winning by 16.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Nuggets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Thunder are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 division games.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* Celtics/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -4 

Toronto wants revenge from back-to-back road losses at Boston this season which followed up their 12-point home win over the Celtics to start the season.  And it should come as no surprise that the Raptors lost those two games in Boston considering how important home-court advantage has been in this series. 

Indeed, the home team is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Raptors are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Celtics.  Toronto is 25-6 SU at home this season, while Boston is 14-15 SU & 11-17-1 ATS on the road. 

I think the Raptors are getting disrespected from oddsmakers tonight as only 4-point favorites because they are coming off a bad upset loss to the Magic.  But Kawhi Leonard did not play in that game, and he is expected back tonight.  The Celtics have come out of the break with back-to-back road losses at Milwaukee and Chicago, so it’s not like they are playing well right now. 

Toronto is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 16-4 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The home team continues to dominate this series tonight.  Take the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

It’s obviously the Chicago Bulls aren’t tanking.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Memphis by 12 as 1.5-point home favorites, beating Orlando outright as 8-point road dogs and beating Boston by 10 outright as 10-point home dogs.   

Yet, oddsmakers want to keep treating the Bulls like they are a tanking team, consistently giving them too many points.  They simply have too much talent to tank.  And now the Bulls want revenge on the Bucks after losing by 13 to them at home in a game they trailed by only 3 with a few minutes left on February 11th exactly two weeks ago today. 

Giannis Antetokounnmpo played in that game, but the Bulls’ job gets a lot easier tonight as he is doubtful to play.  Also expected to be out is point guard George Hill.  The Bulls have lost each of their first three meetings with the Bucks this season and will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep.  Two of those three games went right down to the wire. 

Chicago is 12-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  They are playing with a ton of confidence right now and will certainly show up against the East’s top team tonight.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers aren’t tanking.  They have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 3-1 SU in their last four games with their only loss coming to Brooklyn in triple-overtime. 

A big reason for the Cavs’ recent surge is the return of Kevin Love from injury.  Despite being on a minutes restriction, Love still scored 32 points for them against the Grizzlies last game and made six 3-pointers.  Guys like Colin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman are all playing hard and stepping their games up. 

Because Portland is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes upset wins over Golden State and Philadelphia, it is being overvalued now.  The Blazers are now being asked to go on the road and beat the Cavs by double-digits to cover.  I’m just not seeing it.  It’s a sandwich game here as well off the big win over the 76ers without Embiid, and with Boston on deck.  They won’t fully show up tonight, which is really going to make it tough for them to win by double-digits. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on one days’ rest.  The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Portland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +9.5 

After getting upset 109-110 as 8-point favorites in their first game back from the break by the Bulls, the Orlando Magic are back to being undervalued today as 9.5-point road dogs to the Toronto Raptors.  The Bulls went on to beat the Celtics by double-digits last night. 

The Magic had gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games heading into the break.  They won all five games by double-digits, too.  So the last thing they wanted was the All-Star Break with the momentum they had built up.  After slipping up in their first game back, they should be refocused here against Toronto. 

The Raptors are overvalued due to their seven-game winning streak coming in.  But they’ve been fortunate to win seven in a row.  Their last four games were unimpressive as they went 0-3-1 ATS.  They won by 5 at New York as 14-point favorites, only beat Brooklyn by 2 as 10-point favorites, beat Washington by 9 as 9-point favorites, and only beat San Antonio by 3 as 8-point favorites. 

Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Toronto, including a 116-87 upset home victory as 4.5-point dogs in their most recent meeting.  They also only lost 91-93 as 7-point home dogs in their other meeting this season.  Toronto is 3-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Raptors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been the most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They sit at 30-28 SU & 35-23 ATS and in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference.  They have shown what they are capable of in their last two games despite losing both.  They only lost 118-120 as 7.5-point road dogs at Denver and 123-125 as 12-point road dogs at Golden State.  Those are the top two teams in the Western Conference. 

Now, the Kings will be highly motivated for their first taste of victory since coming back from the All-Star Break.  And I think they are showing tremendous value here as 6.5-point road dogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in an awful spot tonight. 

The Thunder are coming off a double-overtime game against the Jazz last night in which they won on a buzzer-beater by Paul George, 147-146.  No question they are going to have tired legs tonight, and the Kings can exploit it as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season. 

The Kings are 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Sacramento is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games playing on one days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS off a division game this season.  The Thunder are 9-20 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to try to win games.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been at almost any other point this season as Kevin Love has recently returned from injury.  The Cavs are 4-5 SU & 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall to prove they are trying to win games. 

The Grizzlies are 23-37 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-21 SU in their last 21 games overall, and they basically are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.   

Not to mention, the Grizzlies are playing without Kyle Anderson and Jaren Jackson Jr., and they could be without Jonas Valanciunas again tonight.  They’ll also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss to the Clippers last night in which they used a lot of energy coming back from a 20-point deficit, only to lose in the end. 

Cleveland is 16-4 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Memphis is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -2 

The Los Angeles Clippers come out of the All-Star Break sitting in 8th place in the Western Conference.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they try and fend of the Kings and Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

The Clippers haven’t really missed Tobias Harris too much.  They went into Boston and won 123-112 as 11.5-point underdogs, lost at Minnesota, and then crushed Phoenix 134-107 at home.  Now they return from their break and hit the road to take on the hapless Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are 23-36 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-20 SU in their last 20 games overall, and basically they are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.  Not to mention, the Grizzlies are without both Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas, and they could be without Jaren Jackson Jr. who is questionable. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS as road favorites over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Memphis is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

20* Rockets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3 

Lebron James is now in full-on playoff mode.  The Lakers sit at 28-29 and three games out of the 8th spot in the Western Conference.  Expect the best from James and company moving forward as they try and make a playoff run. 

After all, James missed 17 games with a groin injury prior to the break.  So he’s actually fresher for the stretch run than he’s used to.  And he should be able to raise the level of play of his teammates, just as he has done everywhere he has gone.  This is a statement game at home against the Houston Rockets Thursday night. 

The Lakers also will be extra motivated to not get swept by the Rockets this season.  They are 0-3 against Houston in their three meetings this year, but they nearly pulled the upset in a 134-138 (OT) loss at Houston in their last meeting, and that was without James.  At home this time around, and with a healthy James back, I think this one will play out in the Lakers’ favor tonight. 

Los Angeles is 23-9 ATS after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Lakers Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of the most underrated teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star Break.  They sit at 30-29 overall and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been basically all season getting several key guys back from injury.  The only key player they are missing now is Spencer Dinwiddie. 

The Blazers have been great at home this season, but they are just 10-15 SU & 10-15 ATS on the road giving up 113.3 points per game.  And Damian Lillard is questionable to play tonight for the Blazers as he recovers from an ankle injury.  Brooklyn is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games overall. 

The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Brooklyn tonight.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just ready for the All-Star Break to get here.  They have had to deal with the Anthony Davis trade drama, and it has clearly taken its toll on them.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

In their last two games, the Pelicans lost by 9 at Memphis against a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  Then they lost at home to Orlando by 30 in a game they trailed 39-17 after the first quarter.  They clearly weren’t into that game, and they won’t be into this game, either. 

The Thunder are playing as well as anyone in the NBA heading into the All-Star Break and want to carry that momentum in with one final win.  The Thunder are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, beating the likes of Portland (twice) and Milwaukee at home, as well as Houston and Philadelphia on the road.  Plus, the Thunder are expected to get Dennis Schroeder back from a one-game absence due to injury. 

The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 trips to New Orleans.  The Thunder are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Take the Thunder Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks -7 

The New York Knicks have now lost a franchise-record 18 straight games after their 111-126 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The Knicks are just ready for the All-Star Break to put this part of the season behind them. 

Plus, the Knicks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team that won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  That’s bad news as they’ll be up against a Hawks team that will run them to death as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace. 

That Atlanta team is not tanking.  They have gone 3-3 SU in their last six games with upset road wins over Phoenix and Washington, as well as an upset home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a young team that keeps playing together, and they are now as healthy as they have been all season.  They want to go into the break with a win here tonight. 

The Knicks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  That game has blowout written all over it given the Knicks are playing their 5th game in 7 days.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday. 

25* NBA Southeast Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic -3 

The Orlando Magic have clearly been on a mission to get back in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference heading into the All-Star Break.  They’ve gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last five wins coming by double-digits.  I think this team is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, and they don’t want to lose their final game prior to the break to ruin all this good work they’ve put in. 

Now the Magic get to host a struggling Charlotte Hornets team that has gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with its only victory coming against the lowly Hawks.  It’s a Hornets team that Magic are trailing by 2 games in the Eastern Conference standings, so I would certainly say Orlando needs this win more and will be more motivated. 

Adding to Orlando’s motivation is the fact that is has now lost 13 straight meetings to Charlotte.  You can bet these Magic players will be reminded of that streak heading into this game.  They want to do something about it, and they are finally playing well enough to end this skid now.  It’s also worth noting that the Hornets could be distracted with the All-Star Game coming to Charlotte this year.  I’m sure players are dealing with a lot of off-court distractions right now because of it. 

Charlotte is just 8-20 SU on the road this season and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.  They are losing by 9.9 points per game on average in this spot.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days’ rest.  The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

I just don’t think the Bulls are tanking contrary to popular believe.  They have recent road wins over Miami by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they battled the Bucks last time out, only trailing by 3 with roughly three minutes to go but somehow lost by 13.  I had the Bulls +12 in that game in one of the worst beats I’ve suffered all season. 

But I’m willing to get back on the Bulls today in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  I really like the talent on this team with Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Robin Lopez and Otto Porter Jr., who was a nice get at the trade deadline for the Wizards.  There are certainly a lot worse starting 5’s in the NBA. 

Now they face a Memphis Grizzlies team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a one-point home loss to the Spurs last night.  It’s definitely a hangover spot for them off that tough defeat.  The Grizzlies were sellers at the deadline parting ways with two of their best players in Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple.  They would have traded Mike Conley too, but his absurd contract detracted suitors.  I just don’t trust them much at all the rest of the season. 

Memphis is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Memphis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a loss to a division opponent.  Take the Bulls Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Detroit Pistons have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their four wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They now sit at 26-29 on the season and in 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a game ahead of the Miami Heat. 

Now the Pistons are rested and ready to go tonight wanting to carry their momentum into the All-Star Break as this is their final game prior to the break.  The Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days and will be laying it all on the line to get a win in Boston.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been all season, which has been a key to their great play of late. 

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a huge win in Philadelphia last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot as well after pulling the upset.  And the Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving tonight, plus key backup PG Terry Rozier is doubtful. 

Detroit won 113-104 at home as 2-point dogs and only lost 105-108 as 8.5-point road dogs in its last two meetings with Boston this season.  The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Boston.  The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are coming off four straight losses straight up and seven straight ATS losses.  But they’ve faced a brutal road schedule with four straight losses at Sacramento, Golden State, Portland and Utah.  And it’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Now, the Spurs face a team they can handle in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are just 23-34 this season.  But the Grizzlies are getting some respect from oddsmakers as they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But their three wins came against the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Knicks, while they lost by 22 at Oklahoma City. 

The Spurs also have had some time to rest and recover as they come in on two days’ rest.  The Grizzlies clearly signaled they were tanking when they traded away Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple, and they still have a ton of injuries to deal with right now with Kyle Anderson and Omri Casspi out.  They just don’t have the horses now to compete with a team the caliber of San Antonio. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 points or more in their last there games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS since 1996. 

The Spurs lost 86-96 at Memphis in their last meeting.  Well, that sets the Spurs up for a great spot tonight.  San Antonio is 16-1 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.  Take the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +12 

Because the Milwaukee Bucks are 41-14 SU & 32-21-2 ATS this season and have the best record in the Eastern Conference, they are starting to warrant a lot of respect from the betting public.  When that happens, these teams become overvalued, and I think that’s the case for the Bucks right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bucks, who are now being asked to go on the road and lay a whopping 12 points to the Chicago Bulls.  This is a Bulls team that is not obviously tanking like some of these other teams with bad records.  In fact, they probably have the most talent of any of the perceived tanking teams. 

In their last five games alone, the Bulls have gone o the road and pulled off some impressive blowout upset victories.  They went into Miami and won by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and they won at Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they just added more talent before the trade deadline by snagging Otto Porter Jr. from the Washington Wizards.  I now like this lineup of Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez quite a bit. 

Chicago only lost 113-116 as 15-point road dogs in its last meeting with the Bucks in Milwaukee.  The Bucks are 26-50 ATS in their last 76 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - who score more than 102 PPG against an opponent that gives up more than 102 PPG, after scoring 90 points or less are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +5.5 

I believe the Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers, who are missing Victor Oladipo and have managed to play well without him of late, but it won’t continue for much longer. 

The Charlotte Hornets are battling to get into the playoffs at 28-29 this season.  They have played some of their best basketball of the season of late, going 8-5 SU & 7-5-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And they come in fresh and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  Charlotte has two days off after this, so it will be 100% zoned in and focused on beating Indiana tonight. 

Indiana is a tired team right now as it will be playing its 8th game in 13 days.  Plus, the Pacers could easily be looking ahead to their huge showdown with Milwaukee at home on Wednesday.  And both Myles Turner and Doug McDermott are questionable to play tonight for the Pacers. 

The Pacers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five gams after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

20* Lakers/76ers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7 

Once again, LeBron James and the Lakers are big road underdogs to one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.  We saw how that worked out on Thursday as the Lakers pulled the upset at 9.5-point road dogs at Boston.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are a team in transition right now after just making the trade for Tobias Harris.  While it was a good trade and will work out for them in the long run, it’s going to take some time to implement him into their scheme.  There’s only one ball to go around, and it will be an interesting dynamic for a while with four guys who like to have the ball in their hands in Simmons, Butler, Emdiid and now Harris.  Plus, Embiid could sit today with an illness. 

The Lakers want to avenge their 105-121 home loss to the 76ers as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th less than two weeks ago.  But neither LeBron nor Kyle Kuzma played in that game.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Philadelphia.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers today.  This despite the fact that they’ve been one of the best home teams in the league, going 19-8 SU & 19-8 ATS at home this season.  Not to mention, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

Portland is just 10-13 SU & 10-13 ATS on the road this season.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late.  The home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  Dallas won 111-102 as 2-point favorites and 115-109 as 7-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Portland. 

Dallas is 11-2 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The Mavericks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Portland and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -11.5 

The New York Knicks are more blatantly tanking than any other team in the NBA.  They just suffered their 15th straight loss last night in a 103-120 setback at Detroit.  They has just lost to the Pistons the game before, so you’d think they would show some pride.  Nope.  Now the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with a short-handed roster. 

The Knicks have also lost 23 of their past 24 and 28 of their past 30 to fall to an NBA-worst 10-44.  Not to mention, New York has lost 15 straight home games.  They haven’t even been competitive lately as each of their last five losses have come by 12 points or more.  And that’s all it would take for the Raptors to cover tonight. 

Toronto is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with an 18-point home win over the Clippers, a 12-point road win at the 76ers and an 18-point road win at the Hawks.  Look for them to make easy work of the tanking Knicks tonight. 

Toronto is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Knicks with all five wins coming by 13 points or more and by an average of a whopping 20.6 points per game.  The Raptors are 14-4 ATS in road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raptors Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +8 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Milwaukee Bucks, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATSin their last five games overall.  But the only impressive win was their road win at Toronto while the other four wins came against teams with losing records.  And the Bucks are banged up right now with Giannis likely to play in spite of a knee injury, but Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Nikola Mirotic are all out. 

Now the Bucks have to go on the road and face a Dallas Mavericks team that has been undervalued at home all season.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 19-7 SU & 19-7 ATS at home this year.  They don’t have to win this game to cover, they just have to stay within 8 points.  I realize Luka Doncic is questionable, but he has been listed as questionable a lot this season and seems to play every time.  I think that will be the case again tonight. 

The Mavericks aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers despite going a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And they want revenge from a 10-point loss at Milwaukee as 10.5-point dogs on January 21st which started this streak.  Now they are catching 8 points at home in the rematch when if you adjust for home-court advantage they should only be catching 4.5 to 5.5 points.  That just shows how overvalued the Bucks are right now. 

The Mavericks are 14-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season, and they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucks.  Add the 9-1, 8-0, 7-0 & 6-0 systems together and we have a 30-1 system backing Dallas tonight.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will want revenge on the Nets, who they have already lost to three times this season.  So they’ll be looking to avoid the season sweep.  And they just played the Nets on January 29th in a 117-122 road loss as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching 9 points in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

The Bulls are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they just traded for Otto Porter Jr., who could make his debut tonight and will add to an already very talented roster.  We should get a big effort from the Bulls, who have been impressive in their last four road games, upsetting Miami by 16 and Cleveland by 16 and only losing by 5 to Brooklyn and by 7 at Charlotte. 

The Nets are banged up right now.  They are missing Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  Yes, Caris LeVert is expected to return from a two-month absence, but he won’t play much tonight.  And this is certainly a tired Nets team as they will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.   

The Nets are coming off two huge games against the Bucks and Nuggets, and have Toronto on deck, so this is a sandwich spot as well.  They won’t be all that motivated to beat the Bulls for a 4th time this season.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing some very competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes upset victories over the Bulls as 5-point dogs and the Wizards as 8-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 to Miami as 8.5-point dogs and by 7 to Boston as 10-point dogs. 

The Wizards have no business being this big of favorites over the Cavaliers.  They just traded away their second-best player in Otto Porter Jr.  They clearly aren’t concerned with winning too many games moving forward.  The Wizards are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset losses to the Cavs and Hawks, and three blowout losses by 13 points or more. 

The Cavs are rested and ready to go, too.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days today.  The Wizards are a tired team as they will be playing their 9th game in 16 days and they play again tomorrow night in Chicago.  It’s just a mentally, beat down team right now that is way too vulnerable to be asked to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight. 

Washington is 2-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

The Orlando Magic are playing some great basketball right now.  They are flying under the radar because they have had some tough luck in close games.  Each fo their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer, including five by 5 points or less.  And their last three wins have come by an average of 13 points per game.  So, despite being 5-8 in their last 13 games, they have actually only been outscored by one point during this stretch. 

Minnesota is struggling right now due to injuries.  They are missing their top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones, as well as key 3-and-D man Robert Covington.  The Timberwolves are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming at home against lowly Memphis 99-97 in overtime. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  And Orlando basically just has to win to cover tonight.  That shouldn’t be a problem against a Timberwolves team that is just 8-18 SU on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 21-51 ATS in its last 72 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis was basically missing everyone, and still beat Minnesota last time out.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Orlando is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Minnesota, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +3 

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their win total was 24.5 coming into the season.  They already have 28 wins and surpassed their win total two weeks ago.  Sacramento fans are excited about this team and continue to pack the Golden 1 Center because of it. 

That’s why the Kings have had so much success at home of late.  Indeed, the Kings are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  Their only loss came to the Warriors by 4 as 8-point dogs.  They have upset the likes of the Blazers, 76ers and Spurs at home during this stretch. 

Now I expect the Kings to upset the Rockets, who are still without Clint Capela and could be without Eric Gordon, who is questionable.  The wear and tear on James Harden is starting to show despite the fact that he keeps putting up big numbers.  The Rockets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 

I expect both Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley to dominate the paint with Capela out, which is going to be a key to victory here.  Bagley has missed 14 games due to injury, but they’ve been a different team since he returned.  Bagley is averaging 17.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last six games as he’s had his minutes steadily increase. 

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 3-13 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 10-2 ATS at home when he line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks made the trade with the Knicks at a great time.  They’ve been off since Saturday, February 2nd.  That has allowed their new players from the Knicks to get in some important practice time and get accustomed to their new city.  They should come out like gangbusters tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. 

While the Mavericks are on three days’ rest, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  This is a tired Hornets team that will also be without backup PG Tony Parker, who suffered a back injury last night against the Clippers. 

The Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS at home.  The Hornets are just 7-18 SU & 11-14 ATS on the road, giving up a whopping 115.4 points per game on 48% shooting on the highway.  Dallas beat Charlotte 122-84 on the road in their first meeting this season. 

The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Dallas is 13-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.  The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, not to mention their 5th different city in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as you will find in the NBA. 

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they just recently lost their best player in Victor Oladipo.  They have been able to get by the Pelicans and Heat for their two wins since losing him, but are still just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games without him.  They don’t have the firepower to beat the Lakers tonight without him given the tough rest spot. 

The Lakers come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest.  LeBron James is healthy now and rested last game, so he will be primed for a big effort.  And the Lakers are about as healthy as they’ve been all season right now as the only key player they are missing right now is Lonzo Ball, but his absence is not too big of a deal now with a healthy Rajon Rondo. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Lakers) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2 

The New Orleans Pelicans are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point underdogs to the Indiana Pacers.  It’s because they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with covers against Houston, Denver and San Antonio.  But they trailed by 20-plus points in the 4th quarter against the Spurs before Popovich pulled starters and they made a big comeback. 

Those three covers were surprising because the Pelicans are missing five of their six best players in Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton and E’Twuan Moore.  It’s possible to play well for a few games without so many players, but in the long run it’s going to catch up to them.  And I think it catches up to them tonight. 

The Pacers picked up their first win since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury with an impressive 95-88 win at Miami last time out.  But keep in mind they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 games and their only home game was against Golden State.  This will be their easiest test here since losing Oladipo, and I look for them to take advantage by burying the short-handed Pelicans. 

Indiana is 30-9 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 3-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  New Orleans is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games off an ATS win.  Roll with the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -7 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA this season.  They are 38-13 on the year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  They simply have not weaknesses. 

The Brooklyn Nets are extremely vulnerable right now due to injuries.  They are without Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley.  Joe Harris is questionable tonight with a hip injury.  They lost by 13 at Orlando last time out, and I just don’t think they have enough firepower with all of these injuries to keep up with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee won its lone meetings with Brooklyn 129-115 this season.  They led by 19 at halftime and coasted in the second half.  The Bucks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Nets with their 11 wins coming by an average of 12.2 points per game. 

The Bucks are 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Brooklyn.  Milwaukee is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall.  Take the Bucks Monday. 

20* 76ers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They just ended the Warriors’ winning streak with a 113-104 road victory as 8-point underdogs.  After beating the defending champs, there’s no chance the 76ers show up tonight in Sacramento.  They probably spent the last couple nights partying celebrating that victory. 

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they’ll be without two starters tonight in J.J. Redick *18.3 PPG) and Wilson Chandler (6.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG).  The 76ers lack a bench, so without those two they’ll be extremely short-handed.  And the Kings will test them because they play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA. 

The Kings are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Sacramento has been playing really well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They won by 22 over Atlanta, by 8 over Portland, by 7 over Charlotte, by 10 over Detroit, by 16 over Orlando and only lost by 4 to the Warriors as 8-point dogs. 

The Kings are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS in home games off a home game this season. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Philadelphia) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Saturday.   

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 

It’s safe to say the Orlando Magic will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night.  They have lost twice to Brooklyn in the last two weeks 115-117 at home and 110-114 on the road.  Those were both gut-wrenching losses.  They want revenge in a big way tonight. 

The Nets are coming off a tough 114-117 loss at San Antonio.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they certainly won’t be all that motivated to beat the Magic for a 3rd time in two weeks.  It’s also a sandwich game for them with the Milwaukee Bucks on deck, a game they could easily be looking ahead to. 

The Nets are without Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  The Dinwiddie loss is huge because he single-handedly beat the Magic the first time these teams played.  What made the Nets so dangerous was having Dinwiddie (17.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and D’Angelo Russell (19.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) being interchangeable.  Russell now has to do too much. 

Orlando is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -6 

The Charlotte Hornets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 94-126 at Boston last time out.  Now they return home highly motivated for a victory against the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. 

This is a Grizzlies team that is just 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  It’s also a Grizzlies team that is looking to trade its two best players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention, Conley is unlikely to play with a knee injury, and both Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi are out.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with a quad injury as well. 

The Hornets simply own the Grizzlies.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with them with the four wins coming by a whopping 24.0 points per game.  That includes their 118-107 win in Memphis in their first meeting this season.  This is a tired Grizzlies team that will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Hornets will be playing just their 5th game in 12 days. 

Memphis is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  Memphis is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors lost their first two meetings this season with the Bucks.  But they won their 3rd meeting on the road earlier this month, and now they’ll be highly motivated to even the season series in what could be a possible tiebreaker for two teams fighting for the No. 1 seed.  I look for the Raptors to get the job done at home tonight. 

Toronto is in a dream spot here having three days’ rest to get ready for the Bucks.  They last played on Sunday in Dallas.  Now they’re rested and back home, where they are 21-4 this season and outscoring opponents by 8.9 points per game. 

Milwaukee is in a much tougher spot here as it will be playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  The Bucks are in the midst of a five-game road trip here.  And the Raptors are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time as they are now just missing Jonas Valanciunas, who is expected to return soon. 

Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are now 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury.  They lost to the lowly Grizzlies, were blown out at home by the Warriors by 32, and were blown out on the road by the Wizards by 18. 

Now the Pacers are short-handed without both Oladipo and Tyreke Evans, and they have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they’ll be up against a highly motivated Orlando Magic team on the road here. 

The Magic have lost four straight, but all four came by single-digits, and each fo their last seven losses have come by 10 points or less.  They’ve simply had some tough luck in close games of late.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, tired Pacers tonight. 

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - a good team that outscores their opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 81-41 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its lsat seven road games.  The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a tough six-game road trip.  They’ve had plenty of time to recover with two days’ rest and they’ll be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  They are certainly happy to be back home, where they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. 

Atlanta is getting too much respect for its upset win over the Clippers as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday.  But the Clippers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and I was actually on the Hawks in that game.  I’ll gladly fade them tonight in a spot that is much better for the Kings. 

Sacramento won 146-115 in its first meeting at Atlanta.  The Kings also won 105-90 at home in their final meeting last year.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Kings are 10-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 10.7 points per game on average.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. 

Atlanta is 9-24 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games overall the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 9-18 ATS off a road game this season.  Sacramento is 22-10 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I think this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on Orlando and ’sell high’ on Oklahoma City tonight.  The Magic are catching 5.5 points at home against the Thunder and will have an excellent chance to win this game outright, but we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

We’re buying low on a Magic team that has lost six of its last seven coming in.  But they’ve had some hard-luck losses during this stretch.  They lost by 5 in OT at Detroit, by 2 to Brooklyn, but 4 at Brooklyn, by 4 to Washington and by 5 at Houston.  The only time they lost by more than 5 during this stretch was when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in a 10-point loss to the Bucks as 10-point dogs. 

We’ll sell high on a Thunder team that has won five straight coming in.  But the Thunder had lost five of their previous six before that.  And four of their last five wins have come by single-digits.  This is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder as well off their huge 118-112 home win over the Bucks on Sunday.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

Orlando just has a knack for playing Oklahoma City tough.  Indeed, the Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since January 2-3.  This is a very tired Clippers team right now. 

The Atlanta Hawks are rested and ready to go.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 13 days here tonight.  They won at Chicago 121-101 and only lost 111-120 at Portland in the first two games of this seven-game road trip. 

The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to wear down with James Harden having to shoulder too much of the load with both Clint Capela and Chris Paul out. And they certainly should not be 8.5-point favorites over the Magic tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at home to the Nets in overtime and needed OT to beat the Lebron-less Lakers at home as well.  They lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and they needed some last-second heroics from Eric Gordon to beat the lowly Knicks by 4.  They also beat the Raptors by 2 at home during this stretch. 

The Magic just beat the Rockets 116-109 as 5.5-point home dogs on January 13th.  The Magic haven’t lost by more than 7 to the Rockets in five of their last seven meetings.  And they should be able to stay within the number here. 

Houston is 4-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Magic are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in their last trips to Houston.  Take the Magic Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won four straight coming in and are playing some great basketball.  Now they will be highly motivated to beat the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. 

The Thunder are also rested and ready to go tonight coming in on two days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days’ rest.   

Oklahoma City is 42-20-3 ATS in its last 65 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.