Sports Picks & Predictions

Our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies over Bowling Green.  The Huskies enter this game off four straight losses, while the Falcons come in off a home win over the CMU Chippewas.  The good news for the Huskies is that they are 24-13 ATS at home off a loss, including 11-3 ATS when not favored by 1.5 or more points.  And Mid-American Conference home favorites (or PK) have cashed 63% since 1990 off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a Conference opponent off a win.  Finally, the Huskies fall into 33-9 and 40-14 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams off 4+ losses.  Take Northern Illinois.  MAC Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Virginia Tech.  It's true that the Panthers are on an 8-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But when one looks closely at the eight ATS defeats, they have not been by very many points.  Indeed, Pitt's average ATS defeat over this stretch has been by a mere 3.87 points per game.  So, one can chalk it up largely to randomness, as opposed to poor play.  I love the Panthers here, at home, this afternoon, as they fall into a 69-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain team on losing streaks.  Pitt is also 12-4 ATS as revenge-minded conference home dogs of +5 or more points, if Pitt was off back to back losses.  And Pitt's 4-1 straight-up its last five home games vs. the Hokies.  Take Pitt.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks upset TCU, 82-77, in overtime, on the road this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Kansas, it's a horrid 2-17 ATS in its last 19 Big 12 Conference games off a road win.  Take West Virginia.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Valparaiso Crusaders + the points over Drake.  The Crusaders were upset, 87-82, at home on Wednesday, while Drake went into Carbondale, and upset Southern Illinois, 72-69.  Since 1990, Missouri Valley teams off an upset home loss have covered 88% vs. foes off an upset road win, if our 'play-on' team (here, Valparaiso) was playing with revenge from a loss sustained earlier in the season.  With the Crusaders, indeed, playing with revenge from an 11-point loss three weeks ago to Drake, we'll grab the points with Valpo this afternoon.

At 3 pm, our selection is on SIU-Edwardsville over Tennessee-Martin.  On the surface, these two teams are headed in opposite directions, as Edwardsville is off 3 SU/ATS losses, while Tennessee-Martin is off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Interestingly, the Skyhawks find themselves in a Pk-em situation on the road, even though they are 0-12 straight-up, and 2-10 ATS on the road this season!  That doesn't bode well for Tennessee-Martin today.  And neither does the fact that Edwardsville is 5-0 ATS its last five off 3 SU/ATS losses, and also 5-0 ATS its last five vs. opponents off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Cougars.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Middle Tennessee St.  Earlier this season, Middle Tennessee was winless against the spread until its 13th game of the season, at Rhode Island.  Since then, the Blue Raiders are 9-5 ATS, including 5-0 ATS its last five.  The Thundering Herd, now, are the team on the point spread losing streak, as it has lost its last nine games against the spread.  We'll lay the points with Marshall, as teams off a loss have covered 66.1% since 1990 (and a perfect 8-0 ATS the past 2 years) if they were on a 9-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was off a point spread win.  Take Marshall.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Wright St. Raiders over Northern Kentucky.  The Raiders have won and covered three straight games.  And they play with revenge from a 4-point loss at Northern Kentucky earlier this season.  Since 1991, .572 (or better) home favorites (or PK) have covered 64.8% off 3 SU/ATS wins, when matched up against .721 (or better) opponents off a win.  Take the Raiders tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rider Broncs minus the points over Monmouth.  The Broncs come into this game off 5 straight upset losses.  And their last defeat was the most excruciating, as they were up by nine with just 47 seconds left, but blew the lead, and lost in overtime, 98-88.  Tonight, they'll face the team which started them on this losing skein.  On February 2, Monmouth upset the Broncs, 75-71, as a 4.5-point underdog.  We'll lay the points, as home favorites of -6+ points, off four SU/ATS losses, have cashed 65.6% over the past 28 seasons when playing with revenge.  Take Rider.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Buffalo.  The Rockets play with revenge from a 30-point loss last month at Buffalo.  Toledo has a sparkling 20-4 record, including 11-1 at home, and 8-3 inside the Mid-American Conference).  And it's also won its last 5 games, straight-up, and its last four against the spread.  We'll grab the points, as .666 (or better) teams, off back-to-back SU/ATS wins and playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, have cashed 67.8% at home over the past 28 seasons.  Take Toledo.

At Midnight, our selection is on the Cal Poly SLO Mustangs + the points over Hawaii.  The Mustangs fall into a variation of my favorite College Basketball system, which is 411-246 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, they lost their previous game, 76-68 at home to Long Beach State.  But Big West Conference underdogs of 9+ points have covered 65.5% in Conference games off a SU/ATS home loss.  Take Cal Poly SLO.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on Loyola Marymount + the points over Gonzaga.  The Lions have won 12 of their last 14 home games, and are 9-5-1 ATS their last 15 as home underdogs.  They played Gonzaga earlier this season in Spokane, and hung tough in an 18-point loss (as a 23-point road underdog).  We'll grab the big number of points tonight, as the Lions fall into a 48-17 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off blowout wins (Gonzaga routed St. Mary's, 94-46, last Saturday).  Take the Lions + the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Utah.  The Wildcats come into this game off 5 straight losses, including back to back games in the past week as a home favorite vs. Washington and Washington State, and are now 5-6 in Pac-12 Conference play.  Meanwhile, Utah comes into this game off back to back road upset wins at USC and UCLA, and is 7-4 inside the conference.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Utes as a small home favorite, especially since they've also won and covered six of their last eight, own the better conference record, and have revenge from a 3-point loss at Arizona earlier this season.  But this is a classic example of a sucker bet.  To wit:  over the last 22 seasons, .750 (or worse) teams, off back to back upset home defeats, have cashed 83% vs. foes off back to back upset wins on the road.  Even better:  the Wildcats have won 19 of the last 21 meetings straight-up, including 3-1 SU/ATS as an underdog, and 9-1 SU/ATS when not favored by 8+ points.  Finally, the Wildcats are 39-25 ATS when they didn't own a winning Pac-12 Conference record.  Take Arizona + the points. College Hoops Sucker Bet of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Charlotte.  The Magic have won and covered four straight, including a 20-point blowout of the league's #1 team, Milwaukee.  I won't step in front of them here, at home, tonight, as they play with revenge from a 25-point loss to Charlotte on New Year's Eve.  And that defeat has triggered a very good 84-46 ATS revenge system of mine.  Even worse for the Hornets:  they've covered just 34 of their last 100 games when installed as an underdog.  Take Orlando minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens + the points over Towson.  The Blue Hens are on an 0-5-1 ATS losing streak.  However, we'll grab the points with them tonight, as they're an awesome 26-9-2 ATS on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 10-0-1 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS win.  With Towson off a 66-59 win over James Madison, as a 3-point favorite, we'll fade the Tigers, and take the points with the Blue Hens.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes minus the points over Drexel.  The Dragons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.  But this ATS win streak has triggered a negative 112-208 ATS system of mine.  Even better:  the Dukes lost by five points at Drexel back in January.  However, Colonial Athletic Association teams are a solid 227-177 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if they weren't off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent was off an ATS cover.  Take James Madison.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies + the points over Houston.  The Cougars come into tonight's game off a huge win over Cincinnati last weekend.  Houston and Cincy were both 9-1 inside the AAC Conference, so Houston's 7-point win catapulted it into sole possession of 1st place.  One of the things I love to do is play against teams off wins in meetings between two top conference teams (with win percentages of .866 or better).  Such teams suffer letdowns over 60% of the time in their next game (and 67% if they're laying more than 6 points).  Indeed, we saw this just two days ago when Duke struggled to defeat Louisville after defeating Virginia in its previous game.  Take the points with Connecticut.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are just 12-45 this season, but did win their most recent game, 107-104, vs. New York.  Off that win, we'll fade Cleveland, as NBA home dogs off a straight-up win, that have won less than 22 percent of their games, have cashed just 36% since 1990 vs. .500 (or better) non-division foes.  Additionally, the Cavaliers are 12-24 ATS at home off a win, while Brooklyn is 44-25 ATS its last 69 road games.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over South Florida.  The Knights have won 10 of their last 11 at home this season, with their only loss coming against #9-ranked Houston.  Tonight, they'll face the South Florida Bulls, and they've defeated South Florida six straight times, and eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS).  Over the last four seasons, the Knights are an awesome 45-6 straight-up and 33-17-1 ATS as a favorite, including 12-1-1 ATS when priced from -5 to -8 points.  Even better:  the Bulls are a horrid 43-75-1 ATS when priced as an underdog of +4.5 to +8 points, including 18-44-1 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take the Knights.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Alabama.  Miss State comes into this game off back to back home losses to LSU and Kentucky.  I look for the 3rd game to be the charm, as Miss State falls into a 41-9 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Even better:  the Bulldogs are 94-62 ATS at home off a loss, and they're 49-24 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 36-12 ATS if they weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the St Johns Red Storm minus the points over Butler.  The Bulldogs come into this game at Carnesecca Arena off back to back wins over Seton Hall and Georgetown, while St Johns lost its last game -- here at home -- to Providence.  Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they're 0-6 ATS this season off back to back wins, while St Johns is a super 11-3 ATS its last 14 off a home defeat.  That bodes well for St Johns tonight.  As does the fact that the Johnnies fall into a 95-56 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off home losses.  Lay the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston.  This is the first time the Sixers have played the Celtics here at home since their 5-game Playoff series loss last year.  And there's probably not a game on the Sixers' schedule in these final two months which means more to this team.  Philly comes into this game off back to back home wins over Denver and the LA Lakers.  And Philly is a jaw-dropping 39-4 straight-up and 32-11 ATS its last 43 regular season home games when it was favored by 4+ points, including 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Sixers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies won, 99-90, here on Saturday vs. the Pelicans, and will try to make it two-in-a-row tonight when they take on their historical nemesis.  The Grizzlies haven't had much success vs. San Antonio, as they've won just 10 of the previous meetings, though they were victorious in the last meeting, back on January 9.  Unfortunately for Memphis, this is a horrible situational spot, as they will face a desperate San Antonio squad.  The Spurs' annual Rodeo Road Trip is not off to a good start, as they've lost the first four games of this eight-game trek, including a 20-point loss at Utah on Saturday.  But I love the Spurs to bounce back tonight, and blow out Memphis, as San Antone is 20-12 ATS in its Rodeo Road Trip games, if it's rested and off a loss, including a perfect 6-0 ATS if it was also playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Spurs are also 18-0 ATS off back to back losses, if they (i) lost by more than 11 points on the road in their previous game, (ii) were not getting 3+ points, and (iii) were playing an opponent off an ATS win.  Take San Antonio minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rider Broncs minus the points over Quinnipiac.  The Broncos have lost their last four games, and they were favored in those four games by 4.5, 8, 9 and 7 points.  But off those string of losses, we'll step in and take the Broncs on the road this evening.  For technical support, consider that road teams off four upset defeats have covered 77.2% over the past 29 years.  Take Rider.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Dallas, as Houston falls into 133-81, 95-59 and 67-25 ATS systems of mine.  Yesterday, the Mavericks came back from a 15-point, 4th-quarter deficit to upset the Portland Trail Blazers, 102-101.  Off that upset win, we'll go against the Mavericks on the road tonight, as they're 11-29 straight-up, and 14-25-1 ATS on the road off an upset win, including 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight.  Meanwhile, Houston comes into this game off a home loss to OKC.  And Houston is a super 33-7 straight-up, and 28-12 ATS off a home defeat if the Rockets owned a winning record.  Finally, the Rockets play this game with revenge from two losses earlier this season to Dallas.  And Houston is 13-0 ATS when playing with double-revenge against foes with a win percentage from .400 to .800.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over the LA Clippers.  Los Angeles stormed back from a 28-point deficit to shock Boston, 123-112, as an 11.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we will fade the Clippers tonight.  Los Angeles is an awful 1-15 straight-up and 2-14 ATS as a non-division underdog off a win, including 0-7 ATS off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are a strong 10-3 straight-up and 11-2 ATS their last 11 vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the T-Wolves were off an upset win.  Finally, the Clippers are a horrid 47-73-3 ATS as an underdog off a SU/ATS win, if they were playing a revenge-minded opponent.  With Minny playing with revenge from an 11-point loss to the Clippers earlier this season, we'll lay the points. Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over South Florida.  The Bulls are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  And among their wins in this stretch was a 20-point blowout of East Carolina on January 26.  We'll take the double-digits in this rematch, as college basketball teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have covered just 51 of 142 if they defeated their opponent by 14+ points earlier in the season, and their opponent is off a loss by 14+ points.  With East Carolina, indeed, off a 65-49 loss to Wichita in its last game, we'll grab the points with the Pirates on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Rider Broncs minus the points over Siena.  Rider has dropped its last seven games to the point spread, and has lost its last three, overall.  That's the bad news.  The good news is that the Broncs still only have four losses in Metro Atlantic Conference play, which ties them in the loss column atop the conference with Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Canisius, and today's opponent, Siena.  And they'll likely be favored in six of their final seven Conference games, so they still have a great shot to finish with the #1 seed in the MAAC Tournament.  We'll lay the points with the Broncs this afternoon, as they fall into a 54-25 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Also, Siena's a horrid 10-27-1 ATS when playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Lay the points with Rider.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the George Mason Patriots minus the points over La Salle.  The Explorers have won four straight games to move their record to 7-14 on the season.  This afternoon, they'll take on a George Mason team coming off back to back losses.  Unfortunately, the Explorers have covered just 2 of 15 off four straight covers since 1990, including 0-7 ATS since January 9, 2008.  Meanwhile, George Mason is 51-34 ATS off back to back ATS losses.  And the Patriots are also a fantastic 49-19-3 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent which is not a winning team, including 13-0 ATS their last 13 if their opponent is off a win.  Take George Mason.

At 10 pm, on ESPN TV, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils over Washington.  Arizona State had an awful game its last time on the court, as it lost by 21, at home, to Washington State.  We had a big play on Washington State in that game, so we weren't wholly surprised.  Here, though, we'll back the Sun Devils, as they're 19-10 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) off an upset home defeat.  Moreover, ASU falls into a 195-130 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points in their previous game.  Take the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on the Big 10 TV Network, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Purdue.  The 'Huskers have lost their last five games all as favorites -- and are 0-6 SU/ATS their last six, overall.  We'll grab the points with Nebraska, as College basketball teams have covered 88.2% on the road over the past 27 years off 4 (or more) upset losses.  Take the Cornhuskers.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Old Dominion.  The Blue Raiders have won and covered three straight games.  And they fall into several "momentum" systems of mine, with records of 27-2, 22-2 and 46-14 ATS since 1990.  Even better:  the Blue Raiders are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs. the Monarchs since 2014.  Take Middle Tennessee + the points.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Oregon State.  We played on California on Wednesday, and got the $$$ when they covered the 16-point spread at Oregon.  That was the 2nd straight cover for the Bears, and I look for them to win their 3rd straight "in Vegas" today, as they're once again a double-digit dog.  The Beavers, meanwhile, were upset, 83-60, by Stanford, on Thursday.  And they have covered just 3 of 12 at home when favored by 13+ points off a loss.  Even worse:  NCAA favorites of more than 6 points have cashed just 28 of 80 conference games off a 21-point (or worse) upset conference defeat.  Take California.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Montana St.  The Vandals come into this game off a 100-59 blowout loss, at Montana.  And that was their eighth straight defeat (and seventh straight point spread loss).  Meanwhile, the Bobcats have won their last two, and covered their last four  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "hot" Bobcats and against the "cold" Vandals.  But underdogs (or PK'em teams) off 3 SU/ATS losses, that gave up 99+ points in their previous game, have cashed 88% over the last 29 years vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, the Vandals fall into 135-88 and 403-217 ATS systems of mine that play on certain underdogs off blowout losses.  Grab the points with the Vandals. BIG SKY GAME OF THE YEAR!

At 4 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe + the points over Hofstra.  The Tribe lost by 12 points, 72-60, at Northeastern, on Thursday.  But they played a much better game earlier this season against this afternoon's opponent, when they lost by just 3 to Hofstra. 93-90.  Generally speaking, road teams off double-digit conference losses have done very well over the past 29 years in a regular season's second meeting, if they narrowly lost the first meeting by 3 points or less.  And William & Mary is also a strong 33-13-1 ATS when playing with revenge, including 7-0-1 ATS off a loss by 7+ points.  Take William & Mary.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Elon Phoenix + the points over Northeastern.  Elon was drilled, 102-61, by Hofstra, on Thursday.  However, Colonial Athletic Association teams, off a 40-point (or worse) conference defeat, have cashed 80% of conference games since 1990.  Likewise, Colonial teams off a conference defeat in which they gave up 90+ points, and failed to cover by 10+ points, have rebounded to go 64-34 ATS in Colonial Athletic Ass'n games.  Take Elon.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Minnesota, as Michigan State falls into several of my favorite NCAA systems, including a 71-29 ATS angle, and a 58-18 ATS system.  The Spartans had won 13 straight games (and covered nine straight) prior to their game at Purdue, on January 27.  We played against Michigan State that afternoon, and easily got the $$$ when Purdue blew out MSU.  The Spartans, however, didn't bounce back off that loss, and instead also lost their next two games -- both as double-digit favorites -- vs. Indiana and Illinois.  I love the Spartans to bounce back today, as home teams have cashed 67% over the past 29 years off back-to-back losses as double-digit favorites, if they were matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Spartans.  BIG 10 FAVE OF THE MONTH.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs were upset by LSU, 92-88, here in Starkville, on Wednesday.  We'll grab the points with Miss State, as it's 19-3-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK) off a straight-up loss, including 10-0 ATS when getting 4 or more points.  Take Mississippi State + the points.  PERFECT 10 CLUB PLAY.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.