Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Baylor.  The Bears are 17-0 this season -- including an 11-point victory over this Iowa State team -- but haven't played in 21 days dues to the coronavirus.  They'll be back in action tonight, in Waco, but we'll grab the generous number of points with the road team.  Dating back to January 5, winning teams forced to pause their games due to COVID are a wallet-busting 11-34 ATS as a favorite if their previous game was at least 14 days ago.  Even better for the Cyclones:  they're 75-49-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take Iowa State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on Arkansas-Pine Bluff + the points over Prairie View A&M.  It's true the Golden Lions have lost their last nine games, but they've been competitive in defeat, as their last five losses were by 3, 8, 6, 1 and 2 points.  And they covered the spread in four of those five games.  I look for another ATS win by Arkansas-Pine Bluff tonight, as it's 15-7 ATS off back to back losses.  And double-digit underdogs off 7+ losses have covered 61% against conference foes off 7+ wins.  Take Pine Bluff.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Florida.  Bruce Pearl's men come into this game back to back losses at Kentucky and LSU.  And they also play this game with revenge from a 22-point loss at Florida in the last meeting with the Gators.  The good news for the Tigers is that they're back home in Auburn tonight, where they've gone 9-0 ATS off back to back road losses, when favored by 7 points or less (or PK).  And NCAA favorites off back to back defeats have gone 77-43-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Auburn.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern U. Jaguars minus the points over Alabama State.  Both of these Southwestern Athletic Conference teams enter tonight's game off a win nine days ago.  Southern defeated Pine Bluff, 73-71, on the road, while Alabama St. blew out Alabama A&M, 72-58, at home.  These teams also met once before this season, in Montgomery.  Southern was an 8.5-point road favorite in that game, but the Jaguars were upset, 66-64, by the Hornets.  Southern blew a 15-point lead in that game.  With revenge on its mind, I expect Southern to keep its foot on the pedal tonight, and win this game in a romp.  The Jaguars are 13-2 ATS their last 15 as a home favorite (or PK), and 6-2 their last eight as double-digit favorites (regardless of venue).  And they're 21-11 ATS off a SU win, and 4-0 ATS their last four when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Hornets have covered just 5 of 16 off a home win over a conference foe.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into a very good 185-96 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Clippers showed what they can do when fully healthy, as they defeated Utah -- the league's best team -- with Kahwi Leonard, Patrick Beverley and Paul George back in the fold.  Tonight, the Clippers will set their sights on Brooklyn, which defeated it in New York, 124-120, earlier this season.  The good news for the Clippers tonight is that Kevin Durant won't be on the court, and he had 28 points and 9 rebound in that first meeting.  It's true that the Nets have won and covered five straight, including a win over the defending champion Lakers on Thursday.  But road dogs of more than 2 points, off an upset win, and off 5 SU/ATS wins overall, are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1990.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Lehigh Mountain Hawks + the points over Loyola Maryland.  The Greyhounds annihilated Lehigh on the road yesterday, 75-47.  The two teams will now play the rematch in Baltimore, and we'll grab the double-digits with the revenge-minded Mountain Hawks.  Without denying that Lehigh is a poor team, Loyola's still no great shakes, as it's 3-7 SU/ATS this season, and can't be trusted to lay a large amount of points.  Indeed, Loyola's covered just 26% over the past 14 years when laying more than 11.  And Loyola also falls into a negative 37-82 ATS system of mine which goes against certain big favorites with losing records.  Take Lehigh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Texas Southern Tigers over the Prairie View A&M Panthers.  The Panthers will resume their season here in Houston this afternoon, after not playing since February 1.  So, the fact that Prairie View was red-hot (with 6 straight wins) before its 20-day layoff must be discounted appropriately.  Indeed, in this COVID-impacted season, teams with 14-day (or longer) layoffs have under-performed against the spread, and especially if they were off wins, and not getting 3+ points in their current game.  We'll take the home-standing Tigers, as they fall into a 70-19 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, the Tigers play this game with revenge from a 4-point loss at Prairie View on Jan. 11.  That was the eighth straight time (and 16th of 20) that the home team has won the game, straight-up, in this Lone Star state rivalry.  And the Tigers are 9-1 their last 10 at home vs. the Panthers.  We'll look for the home court to once again be the difference, and take the Tigers to blow out Prairie View.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the the New Jersey Tech Highlanders minus the points over Binghamton.  The Bearcats were 2-13 this season before stunning New Jersey Tech yesterday, here in Newark.  Unfortunately for Binghamton, road teams are a wallet-busting 40% ATS since 1990 off a SU/ATS win, if matched-up against a revenge-minded foe off an 8-point (or worse) home upset loss.  Take New Jersey Tech minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Albany Great Danes over Stony Brook.  The Seawolves snapped their four-game losing streak with an upset win here on Saturday.  But we'll lay the points with Albany, as it falls into a super 184-95 ATS revenge system of mine, and look for Stony Brook to resume its losing ways.   Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Michigan.  We played against Michigan on Thursday, and got the $$$ with Rutgers as a big underdog.  And we'll come right back here, and fade the Wolverines as a small road favorite in Columbus.  Ohio State enters this game red-hot, itself, with seven straight wins, and five straight covers.  And .666 (or better) teams are 71-44 ATS as home underdogs, if they're off 3 SU/ATS wins, and playing a conference foe off a SU win.  Ohio State is also 20-8 ATS its last 28 at home.  Even better, when matched up against opponents with a W/L percentage greater than .700, the Buckeyes are 27-11 ATS, including 8-0 ATS their last eight.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Houston.  The Cougars were upset by Wichita State, as a 7.5-point road favorite, and now are laying double-digits at home against an opponent (Cincy) off 4 straight wins.  But home teams, off an upset road loss as a favorite of more than 7 points, are a poor 18-40 ATS when laying more than 10 points vs. foes off a win.  That doesn't bode well for Houston this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Houston's a horrid 0-13-1 ATS at home off a loss when laying 7+ points to a conference foe with a .500 (or worse) SU/ATS record.  Take the Bearcats + the double-digits.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two Sun Belt rivals.  Georgia Southern won the most recent, 61-58, as a 3-point home dog, in Statesboro.  The Chanticleers do come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  But each of those was on the road, where Coastal Carolina is 1-5 SU this season.  At home, it's a much different story, as the Chanticleers are 11-1 SU.  Lay the points with Coastal.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies over Utah Valley State.  Yesterday, the Wolverines upset the Aggies, 69-66, as a 9 point underdog.  We'll look for the Aggies to rebound tonight here, at the Eastwood High School gym, in El Paso, as the Aggies have cashed 80% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge from a loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite.  Meanwhile, Utah Valley has covered just six of its last 20 off a win.  Take New Mexico State.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers + the points over Grand Canyon.  We played on the Lancers last night, and I released the game overnight when the line was +11.  Later in the morning, around 9:44 am, the line moved down to +10, and then later, it moved further to +9.5 or +9, and the game fell on 10.  We'll come right back with Cal Baptist this Saturday night, as I continue to believe the Antelopes are overvalued here.  And revenge-minded WAC Conference teams are 114-70-3 ATS away from home off a SU loss, when playing an opponent off back to back wins, including 64-29 ATS when it lost the previous meeting by double-digits.  Take Cal Baptist.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins minus the points over IUPUI.  The Jaguars stunned Youngstown here last night, 72-70, as a 6-point underdog.  And that game snapped the Penguins' five game win streak (3-1 ATS).  We'll look for YSU to bounce back this afternoon, as IUPUI is 4-12-1 ATS its last 17 off an upset win, while the Penguins have cashed 67% off an upset loss in which they were favored by 6+ points.  Take Youngstown minus the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Bryant Bulldogs minus the points over Merrimack.  The Bulldogs are 10-5 have not played since January 30, when they lost back to back road games at Fairleigh Dickinson.  And Bryant was favored by 6.5 and 7.5 in those games.  But they're back home today in Smithfield, RI, where they've gone 6-0 this season, and 3-1-1 ATS.  We'll take the Bulldogs to bounce back today, as home teams, with a perfect home record on the season, have cashed 86% over the past 31 years (including 10-0 ATS their last 10) off back to back road losses where they were favored by 5+ points.  Indeed, we saw this situation occur a few weeks ago when Akron bounced back off back to back upset losses to defeat Toledo.  Lay the points with Bryant.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over S. Alabama.  The Mountaineers were upset, 65-63, by the Jaguars here last night.  Unfortunately, though, for South Alabama, it's covered just 25% over the last 31 years off an upset win, if it was on the road against a revenge-minded foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Take the Mountaineers.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes have won their last three games.  Meanwhile, the Eagles have lost their last five games -- both SU and ATS, including losses by 15, 22 and 21 points in their last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to on the hot Golden Flashes, and play against the ice cold Eastern Michigan here, especially because the Eagles are currently getting slightly less than 15 points.  But be careful, as conference underdogs on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, that have lost their three previous games by 15+ points, have actually been a solid 68.2% ATS.  And Kent is a wallet-busting 30-51 ATS off 3+ wins, including 1-9 ATS their last 10.  Finally, EMU falls into 431-242 and 132-53 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Indiana.  It's absolutely true this is the worst team Tom Izzo has fielded this century.  And it may prove to be Michigan State's first team to miss out on the NCAA Tournament since 1997.  But that doesn't mean we won't take this generous amount of points against an Indiana team which has only defeated Michigan State by 7+ points ONCE in the last 13 meetings.  Even worse for Indy: it has been extremely unreliable when laying 6+ points to Big 10 Conference foes, as it's covered just 29 of 87 regular season games, including 10-26-1 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back losses.  And Michigan State has gone 72-46 ATS when it's been below .500 in Big 10 Conference play.  Grab the points with the Green and White this afternoon.  Take Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Toronto.  The Raptors upset Milwaukee last night -- their 2nd straight upset over the Bucks.  And Toronto was getting 7.5 points last night.  But off those two big road wins, we'll fade the Raptors as a road favorite on Friday night.  And key for us is that Minnesota has dropped its last two games -- both at home.  But the good news for the T-Wolves is that rested home underdogs -- off back to back home losses -- have covered 79% since 1992 vs. unrested foes off back to back road wins!  Even better:  the Timberwolves are 17-2-1 ATS their last 20 when getting 2+ points off back to back home losses.  Take Minnesota + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers + the points over Grand Canyon.  The Antelopes are currently riding an 8-game win streak, and have yet to taste defeat in Western Athletic Conference play, as they're 6-0 in conference (and 9-3 overall).  But we'll fade them tonight, as they fall into a negative 42-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain top-level teams.  It's true that the Lancers come into tonight's game off a home upset loss to Big Sky-member Sacramento State.  But Cal Baptist is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS its last seven off a home loss, and 16-8 ATS its last 24 as an underdog.  And teams (like Grand Canyon) with a 5-0 (or better) conference record are a soft 32.6% ATS when favored at home by more than 8 points vs. conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the Lancers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Bucks are mired in a long 5-game losing streak -- their longest under coach Mike Budenholzer.  And among those five losses was a 114-109 defeat to this Thunder team in Oklahoma City.  But that should serve as ample motivation for this Bucks team to come out like a "house on fire" tonight.  Notwithstanding its current troubles, Milwaukee is still 42-16 ATS its last 58 at home off back to back losses, including a perfect 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  And it also falls into a 90-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain team that were upset by their opponent in their previous meeting.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Illinois-Chicago Flames minus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay.  This is the first of two games this weekend between these Horizon League rivals.  And the Flames will look to snap a 7-game SU (and 4-game ATS) losing streak.  But five of those seven games were on the road, while the two home games were against the League's #1 team, Wright State, which is 15-3, and has won nine straight games.  Here, the Flames will be matched up against a Green Bay team which sits just above it in the Horizon League standings.  And Green Bay has been horrid away from home, as it's won just once in 11 outings (and has won just once of the last 13, dating back to last season)!  Indeed, it was a similar situation last year when these two teams met here, in Chicago.  The Flames were upset in their previous game, but were installed as a 2-point home favorite.  The result was 13-point blowout win by the home team.  Horizon League home teams have covered 71% off back to back upset losses by 7+ points.  Take the Flames minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Monmouth.  The Hawks have played 15 games this season.  When installed as the favorite (or PK), they're 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS.  But when the Hawks have been installed as an underdog (as they are, tonight), then they've gone 0-4 SU and 1-2-1 ATS.  Meanwhile, Rick Pitino's Gaels check in off back to back upset losses.  And they were favored by 8 (vs Manhattan) and 7 points (at Quinnipiac) in those two defeats.  But those two losses have triggered a 344-218 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites.  Additionally, Iona has covered 65.6% off an upset loss where they were favored by more than 4 points, including 77% ATS if it was favored at home in its current game.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Loyola Marymount.  The Dons lost, 68-60, when these teams met in Los Angeles, in January.  So, San Francisco will be looking to avenge that loss tonight.  And it also will be looking to redeem itself after losing by 39 points here, at home, in its previous game.  We'll lay the points with the Dons, as .500 (or better) teams have cashed 67.9% at home over the past 31 years, if they lost at home by more than 28 points in their previous game, and weren't laying more than 7 points in their current game.  Additionally, San Francisco is 24-15 ATS off 3+ conference losses, while Loyola Marymount is a poor 40-68-1 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  Take the Dons minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Michigan.  Juwan Howard's troops are 14-1 and ranked #3 in the country.  Tonight, they'll welcome Rutgers to Crisler Arena.  And the Scarlet Knights are playing their best ball of the season.  Rutgers is 5-1 SU, and 4-2 ATS its last six games, including an impressive 67-37 win over Michigan State.  Over this stretch of six games, the Scarlet Knights have held their opponents to just 60.66 ppg.  And over the course of the season, they've held their foes to 67.9 ppg, almost 7 points below their opponents' offensive averages.  Rutgers has excelled vs. foes off ATS wins, as it's 23-10-1 ATS its last 34, including 12-2-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville State + the points over Belmont.  This is the 2nd matchup of the season between these Ohio Valley teams.  The Bruins won Round 1 in Jacksonville, 98-91, as a 7-point road favorite.  At the time, the Gamecocks were not in great form, as they were 0-3-1 ATS in their three previous games.  But since that game, the Gamecocks are 6-2 SU/ATS, including 4-0 SU/ATS their last four.  And they played one of their best games of the season their last time out when they crushed Edwardsville, 80-60, as a 9-point favorite.  Off that big win, we'll grab the double-digits with the road dog, as NCAA underdogs of more than 10 points have cashed 75% over the last 31 years off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they also won by 15+ points in their previous game.  Additionally, the Gamecocks are 12-1 ATS on the road off a 20-point (or greater) home win.  Take Jacksonville State.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks are currently riding a 4-game losing streak -- their longest in almost three years, a span of 236 games.  This spate of poor play has coincided with the absence of Jrue Holiday, but he will be eligible to play tonight after completing COVID protocols.  We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 42-15 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 11-2 ATS off an upset loss.  And the Bucks also fall into a 136-85 ATS regular season revenge system of mine which plays on certain home teams with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent earlier in the season.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers over Iowa.  The Badgers have long been a very strong home team.  And especially against the very best opponents.  Indeed, Wisky is 148-49 SU and 111-74-3 ATS at home vs. .700 (or better) opponents, including 58-27-2 ATS when the Badgers were playing with revenge.  And that's the situation tonight, as Iowa is 15-6 on the season, and defeated Wisconsin, 68-62, in the prior meeting.  Moreover, Wisconsin checks in tonight off a loss in its previous game.  But the Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS this season off a loss, and 10-1-2 their last 13 off a loss.  Take Wisconsin.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Southern Cal.  USC comes into tonight's game on a 6-game win streak, and is favored by double-digits over an Arizona State team which it defeated earlier this season by nine points, 73-64.  Arizona State also enters tonight off a win, as it bested the Oregon State Beavers in Tempe, 75-73, on Sunday.  We'll go against the Trojans at home, as they've covered just 49 of 133 at home off an ATS win, including 7-23 ATS when USC was favored between -7.5 and -12.5 points.  Meanwhile, Arizona State's a super 40-20 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, against foes off ATS wins, when ASA was playing with revenge from a loss by more than eight points earlier in the year.  Finally, over the last 30 regular seasons, Pac-12 underdogs of +9 (or more) points, off a SU win, have covered 67.3% vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win, if our underdog was playing with revenge from a loss in the season's first meeting.  Grab the points with the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the New York Knicks.  It certainly isn't a surprise that coach Tom Thibodeau is turning around the Knicks.  After all, his track record with Chicago, and as a defensive assistant with Boston, is stellar.  New York is currently riding a 3-game win streak, and is 5-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS its last seven games.  But New York has now been installed as a mid-priced road favorite at Orlando, even though it's 14-15 on the season.  And the last time New York was favored by 4 (or more) points on the road was back on March 28, 2016 -- 349 games ago!  By my math, New York is overvalued tonight, and we'll grab the points with an Orlando club which is also starting to play better basketball after a 1-6 SU/ATS stretch in which it lost six games by 9+ points.  However, in its last three (all on the road), it notched an upset win, 123-112, at Sacramento, and played Golden State tough in a six-point loss, 111-105.  The Magic lost, 109-90, at Phoenix on Sunday, but coach Steve Clifford still remarked that his team's play over the four-game road trip was "the best....that [it's] played."  Tonight, Orlando will be back home, where it's 26-9 ATS vs. losing teams when priced from +2.5 to +6 points.  And NBA road favorites off a win, and 4 ATS wins, overall, have covered just 208 of 480 vs. non-division foes.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wofford Terriers minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs continue to make friends "in Vegas," as they lost 70-66 to Chattanooga on Saturday, but covered as a double-digit underdog.  That was the Bulldogs' third straight ATS win, and they'll seek their fourth ATS win in a row tonight, here, in Spartanburg.  But we'll fade The Citadel against a revenge-minded Terriers squad.  In this season's first meeting, the Bulldogs pulled off a big upset, with a 77-69 win, as an 8.5-point underdog.  So, Wofford will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  And Wofford also will be looking to redeem itself from a 71-49 blowout loss at East Tennessee State, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points, as NCAA favorites (or PK), off a loss by 20+ points, have covered 83 of 134 regular season games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than five points in the season's first meeting, provided its opponent covered the spread in its previous game.  Even better:  the Terriers are 11-0 ATS off a road loss, if they were favored by 6+ points in their current game.  Finally, The Citadel is a woeful 10-28 ATS off a conference loss when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Wofford minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers minus the points over Wagner.  The Seahawks smashed the Mountaineers here, in Emmitsburg, last night, and will look for a 2-game sweep on this Wednesday afternoon.  But it won't be easy, as Mount St. Mary's is 14-9 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Additionally, favorites, playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) home loss in the season's first meeting, have covered 78% in the regular season over the last 31 years.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Memphis Grizzlies.  These two teams met 10 days ago, and the Pels defeated the Grizzlies, 118-109, as a 1-point home underdog.  Tonight's game is also near-Pk'em, and we'll take New Orleans to snap its current 3-game losing streak.  These latest three losses immediately followed a season-best 4-game win streak.  And the reason New Orleans lost each of these three games is obvious.  They were the three worst defensive games the Pelicans have played this season, as they allowed Chicago, Dallas and Detroit to each shoot over 53% from the floor.  But in New Orleans' 4-game win streak immediately before these losses, it held its opponents to 46, 44, 44 and 41% FG shooting.  After the loss to Detroit, coach Stan Van Gundy lamented his team's defense, and said, "Nobody blocked out.  We didn't compete...as hard as they did."  I expect a much better effort on the part of New Orleans tonight.  And it should have a lot of confidence vs. the Grizzlies, as it's won the last four meetings by 10, 28, 10 and 9 points, and is 6-1 SU/ATS since 2019, with the average win by 12.42 ppg.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets come into this game off a blowout win over the defending champion Lakers, while Boston enters off back-to-back losses to Eastern conference-cellar dwellers Washington and Detroit.  The good news for Boston is that .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses to sub-.333 teams have cashed 62% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens' men tonight.  As does the fact that Denver is a horrid 4-24 ATS on the road off a point spread win vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  And it's 5-30 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes, if Denver was off a win by more than 8 points (and 1-19 ATS if the Nuggets also won two games back).  Take Boston to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over the Washington Wizards.  The Rockets come into this game on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, including an upset loss at New York on Saturday.  The Wizards pulled off a big upset yesterday when they won here vs. the Celtics, 104-91, as 6.5-point underdogs.  But off that win, we'll fade Washington tonight, as it's 0-4 SU/ATS its last four off a SU win, and 16-33-1 ATS its last 50 off an upset win.  Even better:  Houston's 49-24-2 ATS on the road vs. a foe off a win, if Houston was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And NBA home teams, off an upset home win, are a poor 171-244 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Rockets on Monday evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  After a solid stretch of basketball which saw Cleveland win five of six games (and go 4-2 ATS), the team has hit the skids with a 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS mark over its last nine.  I look for it to snap its ATS losing streak tonight, as rested NBA teams off 6 (or more) losses, are 255-176, 59% ATS when getting more than 9 points, including 114-65, 64% ATS off back to back ATS defeats.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Detroit.  The Pistons pulled off an upset at Boston two nights ago, 108-102, as a 7-point road underdog.  Faithful followers know I love to go against bad teams off wins.  And this would be such an instance.  Indeed, the last time Detroit won two games in a row was more than a year ago (Jan. 18, 2020).  And this will be the 50th game the Pistons have played since then.  Detroit is an awful 3-24 SU and 7-18-2 ATS its last 27 off a win, including 1-8 ATS at home.  Take New Orleans minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers minus the points over Valparaiso.  The Crusaders stunned the Panthers, 70-57, as a 7-point road underdog yesterday, and handed the Panthers their 2nd straight loss.  Northern Iowa now falls into a 343-217 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites of -2 (or more) points off back to back losses.  Additionally, revenge-minded home favorites off 8-point (or greater) upset home losses, have cashed 64% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  And .500 (or worse) SU/ATS Missouri Valley teams are 176-119 ATS at home when playing with revenge against a conference foe which is not off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boston Terriers minus the points over Holy Cross.  Yesterday, the Crusaders shocked the Terriers, 82-65, as a 6-point underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset loss suffered by Boston at the hands of Holy Cross, as it also fell 68-66, as a 15-point home favorite in January.  Over the last 31 years, home favorites of -4 (or more) points have cashed 70.2% when playing with revenge from two losses earlier in the season.  Moreover, the Terriers fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses vs. foes off ATS wins.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Southern Illinois Salukis minus the points over Illinois State.  The Redbirds thrashed the Salukis here at Banterra Center yesterday, with an 80-55 win as a 5.5-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with the home team this afternoon in the rematch, as home teams have cashed 63.1% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge from 25-point (or worse) upset home losses.  Take The Salukis minus the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Penn State.  The 'Huskers took heavily-favored Illinois into overtime earlier this week, before falling 77-72, as a 14-point underdog.  They're once again a double-digit underdog, and we'll grab the points with the Cornhuskers against a Penn State team which has scored 58, 55, and 56 points in its three previous games.   Even worse for the Nittany Lions:  they've covered just one of their last 12 conference games when laying double-digits.  Take Nebraska.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Washington.  Two nights ago, the Celts were upset, 108-102, as a 7-point home favorite by the Detroit Pistons.  They're now on the road in the nation's capital, and will face a Wizards club reeling from back-to-back blowout losses to Toronto (137-115) and New York (109-91).  We'll lay the points with Boston, as it's 25-14 ATS off a loss, and 12-1 ATS its last 13 vs. the Wizards when priced from -1.5 to -8.5 points.  Take the Celtics minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Towson Tigers plus the points over Northeastern.  Yesterday, the Huskies defeated the Tigers here, in Towson, by nine points, 76-67.  We'll take the home underdog in this rematch, as Towson is 45-21-2 ATS as an underdog (or PK) when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 33-12 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And the Tigers also fall into a 157-79 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams -- with worse records than their foe -- that are off SU/ATS losses.  Grab the points with Towson.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers over Michigan.  When these two teams met in Ann Arbor earlier this season, it was the Wolverines' "coming out party," so to speak.  U-M broke out to a 40-23 halftime lead against the then-No. 9-ranked Badgers, and extended the lead to 69-29, before finishing with a 77-54 victory.  To say the Badgers would like to avenge that embarrassing loss would be an understatement.  And I believe they will, as the Badgers are 68-24 ATS at home vs. .700 (or better) foes that don't have revenge and who also aren't getting 10+ points.  Take Wisconsin.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Both teams are playing good basketball.  The Heat have come around after a slow start, and currently sport a 4-game win streak.  Meanwhile, the Jazz have won 17 of 18, including a win over Milwaukee -- the NBA's best team over the past 2+ years -- last night.  But NBA teams have generally suffered letdowns after defeating Milwaukee over the last two seasons, including 0-10 ATS when priced from +2 to -6.5 points.  Tonight's game sets up well for the Heat, as they'll be playing with a day of rest following Thursday's 101-94 victory at Houston, while the Jazz had to play last night.  And the Heat are 31-15 ATS on the road when rested, and playing an unrested foe (including 10-1 ATS if playing a non-division foe off a win).  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  The Mavericks will get another shot at the Kangaroos tonight after dropping a 10-point decision here last night.  We'll play on the Mavericks tonight, as they fall into 205-113 and 151-105 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 6+ losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, at Game 16 forward, NCAA favorites that don't own a winning record have covered just 70 of 182 vs. conference foes with a win percentage less than .125. Take Omaha + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Detroit.  These two teams met last night, and the Titans upset the Vikings, 89-83, as a 3-point underdog.  But before last night's loss, the Vikings had covered four straight, and were 13-3-1 ATS their last 16 games.  We'll fade Detroit, as it's covered just 19 of 57 when playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Take the Vikings minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over Gonzaga.  These two teams met last month in Spokane, and the Bulldogs blew out San Francisco, 85-62.  Since that game, the Bulldogs have gone 9-0 straight-up (all by double-digits), but have covered just two of those games.  We'll take San Francisco in the rematch, as the Dons are 8-1 ATS as double-digit home underdogs their last nine.  And they also fall into a powerful 137-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Finally, Gonzaga falls into a negative 28-74 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off double-digit road wins.  Take the Dons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Central Arkansas Bears + the points over Sam Houston State.  The Bearkats come into today's game off back to back SU/ATS wins over SE Louisiana and Nicholls State, while Central Arkansas has lost its last four games SU/ATS, including upset losses to Northwestern St and McNeese St in its last two outings.  But the good news for the Bears here is that double-digit dogs have covered 68.9% of conference games off back to back upset losses since 1990 when playing an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Central Arkansas + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Trojans were upset, 73-62, by the Red Wolves on the road last night, but return home for this rematch on Saturday evening.  Last night, the Trojans got off to a horrid start, and trailed by 18 at the half.  But they regrouped over the last 20 minutes, and outscored the Red Wolves, 40-33, in the second stanza.  I look for them to play a full 40 minutes today, and blow out Arkansas State, as Little Rock's a solid 33-18-1 ATS off an upset loss when playing a conference foe. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves have covered 0 of 7 vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset loss, and two SU/ATS losses, overall.  Finally, it's true that the Red Wolves have covered six straight.  But they now fall into negative 137-222 and 122-191 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off 4+ ATS wins.  Take Little Rock minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on IUPU-Fort Wayne + the points over Youngstown State.  Last night, the Penguins got the better of the Mastodons, 84-70.  Unfortunately, Youngstown's covered just 20 of 59 when playing a revenge-minded conference foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Moreover, Horizon League teams have covered 68% of conference games since 2007 off three double-digit SU/ATS losses.  And, finally, Fort Wayne also falls into a super 135-64 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Take the points with the Mastodons.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over North Carolina State.  This is the 2nd time this season that Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils have been on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  The last time it occurred, they responded by winning SU/ATS vs. Georgia Tech, on January 26.  We played on Duke in that game, and we'll do so here, as well.  For technical support, consider that the Blue Devils are 24-7 ATS when they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes upset Bowling Green on the road in their last game.  And they've now been installed as a double-digit home favorite vs. Northern Illinois.  We'll go against Kent this afternoon, as .636 (or better) Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 11 of 58 games over the last 28 years off an upset road win, if they were favored by more than 4 points against a .575 (or worse) conference opponent (and just 3 of 25 games if favored by more than 11).  That bodes well for Northern Illinois today.  As does the fact that the Huskies are 16-5 ATS as double-digit dogs vs. foes off upset wins.  Take Northern Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Idaho State.  This will be the 2nd of back to back games between these cross-state rivals here in Pocatello.  The Bengals blew out the Vandals on Thursday night, 69-43, as 8-point favorites.  And that was the 2nd straight 26-point loss suffered by the Vandals, as they also lost, 90-64, at Eastern Washington last Saturday.  We'll grab the points with the underdog here, as revenge-minded NCAA teams off back to back 25-point (or worse) losses have covered 60% over the past 31 years if they lost earlier in the season to their opponent.  Take Idaho + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets have not been a reliable point spread favorite over the years.  And they've been especially poor when favored by 5+ points against .350 (or better) foes that were off a point spread defeat in their previous game, as Toledo's covered just eight of 38.  And that's the situation this afternoon, as Bowling Green checks in off an upset loss to Kent State this past Tuesday.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Quinnipiac Bobcats minus the points over Canisius.  The Golden Griffins pulled their third straight upset win yesterday vs. the Bobcats, as they won, 74-67, as a 5-point road underdog.  But the Golden Griffins are a horrible 1-13-1 ATS off 3 SU/ATS wins when not getting 6+ points, including 0-9 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Quinnipiac.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  In this match-up between two lower-tier Summit League teams, we'll take the points with the basement-dwelling Mavericks against UMKC.  The Kangaroos -- though not as bad as Omaha -- can't be trusted to lay points.  And even to a 2-16 team like the Mavericks.  To wit, the Kangaroos have covered just 41% as a favorite over the last 21 seasons.  It's true that Omaha comes into this game off back to back upset losses to Western Illinois.  However, sub-.300 NCAA teams, off back to back upset losses, have covered 65.1% away from home over the past 30 seasons when not favored by 7+ points.  So, that bodes well for the Mavericks tonight.  And, generally speaking, in match-ups between two bad teams, I prefer to take points rather than lay them.  Indeed, at Game 16 forward, NCAA favorites that don't own a winning record have covered just 69 of 181 vs. conference foes with a win percentage less than .125.  That also doesn't bode well for the Kangaroos tonight.  Take Omaha + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Idaho State.  Perhaps the 16th time will be the charm tonight for Idaho, which has yet to win this season in its first 15 games.  But this trip to Pocatello could be just what the doctor ordered, as the underdog has cashed six straight in this rivalry.  Even better:  the Bengals have covered just 1 of 15 home games when not getting 4+ points, while the Vandals are 79-39-4 ATS away from home off a SU/ATS loss when not getting 16+ points.  Grab the points with Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee State Tigers + the points over Morehead State.  The Tigers enter tonight's game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Eagles are in the midst of an 11-game win streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot road team, but be careful, as teams on 4-game SU/ATS losing streaks have gone 67% ATS over the past 11 years vs. foes on 10-game (or better) win streaks.  And the Tigers have cashed 24 of 36 vs. the Eagles, including 10-3 ATS when the Eagles were off a win in their previous game.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Kentucky Colonels + the points over Belmont.  The Bruins are currently riding a 17-game win streak, and come into this home game off back to back blowout wins over Eastern Illinois (89-61) and SIU-Edwardsville.  For the season, Belmont has yet to taste defeat in Ohio Valley Conference play.  But it's surely worth noting that, through a quirky schedule, the Bruins have yet to play either the 2nd best (Morehead State) or 3rd best (Eastern Kentucky) teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  And it only played the 4th best team (Jacksonville State) once thus far, and won that game by just seven points.  By my numbers, this price is inflated, and we'll take the undervalued road underdog Colonels + the points.  For technical support, consider that Eastern Kentucky is 35-14-2 ATS off a win, if they were getting more than seven points, including 29-10 ATS on the road.  Take the Colonels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Detroit.  The Pacers were buried last night by Brooklyn, as they trailed 62-30 at the half, en route to a 104-94 defeat.  So, perhaps it's a good thing that the Pacers won't get any time off to think about that performance, and instead get thrown right back into the fire tonight, in Detroit.  The Pistons, coincidentally, also played the Nets in their previous game, but had an opposite result, as they upset the Nets by 11 points, 122-111.  Unfortunately for the Pistons, NBA home dogs have only covered 30% over the last 31 years off an upset win, if they were matched up against an unrested division foe off an upset road loss.  Even worse, the Pistons are 0-9 SU their last nine division contests, and have covered just six of their last 27 division affairs!  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Louisiana Monroe.  More often than not, I'll be on a college basketball team on a long losing streak.  But this is an instance where I will go against Louisiana Monroe, which has dropped its last 10 games.  The home team has covered the last four in this rivalry.  And Lafayette should be in an ornery mood after being upset by Arkansas State on Saturday, 83-77.  But Lafayette is a solid 19-10 ATS off an upset loss.  And it also falls into 56-12 and 81-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams off an upset defeat.  Lay the points.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies over Weber State.  This is the first of a 2-game set between these two Big Sky rivals.  Both tonight's game, and Saturday's contest will be played here in Missoula, at Dahlberg Arena, where Montana has won 154 of its last 184 home games.  The Grizzlies have also had tremendous success here vs. Weber State, as they're 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS their last 13 meetings.  This is a super situational spot for Montana, as it enters this game off an upset loss at Portland State, as a 2-point road favorite.  But Montana is a wallet-fattening 67% ATS at home off an ATS loss on the road in their previous game, while Weber is 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS away from home when playing an opponent that failed to cover as a favorite in its previous game.  Finally, Weber falls into a negative 18-69-4 ATS system of mine (which is also currently 1-23-1 ATS its last 25) that goes against certain teams off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Montana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots + the points over Pacific.  Faithful followers know I absolutely don't mind playing on bad college basketball teams, and the Pilots surely fit the bill, as they're 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS their last 10 games.  And they've lost their last three games by 25, 45 and 21 points!  But off those three losses, we'll step in and back the big underdog on Thursday.  Indeed, NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses by 21+ points have cashed 61% since 1990.  Take Portland.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Clippers don't lose very often -- they're 17-8 this season.  And with Kawhi Leonard in the fold, they hardly ever lose twice in a row.  But it happened for the first time this season, this past weekend, when they were upset at home by both Boston and Sacramento.  We'll take the Clippers in this bounce-back situation, as rested road favorites, off back to back upset home losses, are 27-4 SU and 25-5-1 ATS.  Even better:  the Clippers are 37-15 ATS their last 52 off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road when laying 4+ points.  And they're 35-18-2 ATS at Minnesota.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Carolina Catamounts minus the points over VMI.  These two teams met two weeks ago, and the Keydets came away with a blowout, 87-61, victory.  Since then, Western Carolina has gone 1-3, including 0-2 SU/ATS in their last two games, while VMI has gone 1-1, including an upset win over Wofford its last time on the court.  We'll take the Catamounts in this revenge spot, as NCAA revenge-minded teams, off back to back SU/ATS losses, have gone 55-24-3 ATS vs. conference foes if they lost the previous meeting by 24+ points, and weren't getting 2+ points in the current game.  Even better:  if its opponent was off a straight-up win, then our 55-24 system zooms to 30-8 ATS.  Take Western Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Georgetown.  This is a huge revenge game for Creighton, which was upset by the Hoyas last week, 86-79, as as 14-point home favorite.  The good news for the Bluejays tonight is that they're 34-2 SU and 25-9-2 ATS when favored by more than 4 points, and playing with revenge against a foe which defeated them earlier in the season.  Take Creighton minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over St. John's.  The Red Storm enter tonight's game off three straight upset wins, and have covered eight in a row, overall (including a 12-point win over Butler on Jan. 12).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Red Storm tonight as an underdog.  But .500 (or better) underdogs (or PK'em teams), off an upset win, and eight (or more) ATS wins in a row, have covered just 25% of conference games over the last 31 seasons.  And the Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS at home their last nine when playing with revenge.  Finally, the Johnnies are 13-30-1 ATS off a point spread win when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Take Butler.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over South Alabama.  The Panthers were upset by Appalachian State in their last game, but have had the last 16 days off due to the coronavirus, while South Alabama has been in action twice over the previous four days.  Georgia State is 5-0 at home this season, and has outscored its foes here by an average of 27.4 ppg.  Dating back to 2017, the Panthers have gone 46-8 at home, and has covered 7 of 9 home games off an upset loss.  Moreover, it's 9-0 SU here at home vs. the Jaguars.  Lay the points.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks are currently riding a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  But that's not necessarily a good thing when it comes to betting on the Bucks, as they're a dreadful 93-152-7 ATS off 3+ wins.  Even worse:  this will be the Bucks' 3rd game in four nights.  And Eastern Conference teams have covered just 23 of 63 in the high altitude of Denver when playing their 3rd game in four days, if they weren't getting 4+ points.  Denver is 22-4 SU its last 26 home games vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 6-1 ATS if the Nuggets lost their previous game.  Grab the points with the home team.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over NC Greensboro.  The Spartans are 8-2 in Southern Conference play this season, and have strung together seven straight wins and covers coming into this game at Furman.  But upon close inspection, none of those seven wins by NC Greensboro were against teams that have a winning record inside the Southern Conference.  Furman, on the other hand, does have a winning conference record, and has been installed as a favorite in this home game, notwithstanding the fact that it's lost its last four games against the spread, including a 75-67 home upset loss to Wofford on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with Furman this afternoon, as it's 31-7 ATS as a favorite (or PK) off a loss by 8+ points.  Even better:  NCAA home favorites off four ATS losses have cashed 72% since 1990 vs. conference foes off six ATS wins.  Take Furman.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers over Indiana State.  This is a rematch of a game played yesterday, here in Cedar Falls.  The Sycamores emerged victorious, 61-57, as a 1.5-point road underdog in that one to notch their 7th straight win (and hand the Panthers their 2nd straight loss).  But we look for the Panthers to avenge that defeat today, as revenge-minded Missouri Valley teams are 57-30-2 ATS on home or neutral courts against foes off upset wins, if our revenger wasn't getting more than 1 point in the game.  And, even better, Northern Iowa is a terrific 42-8 SU and 36-12-2 ATS as a home favorite of less than 11 points vs. an opponent off a win, if the Panthers were playing with revenge.  And if Northern Iowa was off back-to-back losses, then our 36-12 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0 ATS.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  This will be the third meeting this season between these Pacific division rivals, and the Clippers easily took the first two by 115-96 and 138-100 scores.  The Clippers had Saturday off following their home upset loss to the Celtics, 119-115, as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday.  Meanwhile, the Kings upset Denver, 119-114, in Sacramento yesterday afternoon for their 6th win in 7 games (and 7th straight ATS win).  The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that the Clippers have been exceptional over the last several seasons off a straight-up loss, as they're 42-9 SU and 37-14 ATS off a defeat, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. double-revenging foes.   Even better:  NBA road underdogs of +8 (or more) points off 5+ ATS wins are a dismal 65-102 ATS in the regular season.  Lay the points with the Clippers on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies minus the points over Cal Baptist.  The Lancers came into El Paso (the Aggies' current home base, since they can't play in Las Cruces) last night, and stunned New Mexico State, 85-75.  We'll lay the points with the Aggies on this Saturday, as they fall into 98-30, 49-18 and 47-25 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off SU/ATS losses, as well as a 178-123 ATS system which plays on certain teams off upset losses vs. foes off upset wins.  Additionally, WAC Conference favorites have covered 63.1% since 1993 off upset losses vs. foes off upset wins.  Lay the points with the Aggies tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State.  These two teams met on Thursday, and it was an embarrassing 31-point loss for the homestanding Mavericks.  But Dallas will get a 2nd bite at the apple tonight, and we'll play on the Mavericks in this rematch.  For technical support, consider that home teams have cashed 70.7% in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home upset loss by more than 20 points.  Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just eight of 25 off an upset win, when matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  Lay the points with Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  Both of these teams are playing their best basketball of the season.  Denver has won six of its last eight games SU/ATS (though it was blown out by the Lakers, 114-93, two nights ago), while Sacramento has gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS its last six.  These two teams met here on December 29, and the Nuggets were upended by the Kings, 125-115.  And that was the 2nd straight loss by the Nuggets to the Kings this season.  We'll take Denver to avenge that defeat as it's 36-18 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 7-0 ATS if the Nuggets lost by 15+ points its previous game, and 23-8 ATS if its opponent was off a win.  Even better:  the Kings are a wallet-busting 16-37 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Denver to crush the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles minus the points over Tennessee-Martin.  The Skyhawks have covered just three of 14 games, while the Golden Eagles are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11, and we'll look for these two trends to remain intact on Saturday.  Tennessee Tech has been installed as a small road favorite, but it has completely dominated this series, with 28 wins in the last 40 meetings.  And the Golden Eagles are a terrific 33-14 ATS on the road off a road loss, when not getting more than 16 points.  Meanwhile, Tennessee-Martin is an awful 33-51 ATS as a home underdog its last 84.  Take Tennessee Tech to blow out the Skyhawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Fort Wayne Mastodons plus the points over Detroit.  The Mastodons were blown out, 82-72, last night, here in the Motor City for their fifth straight defeat.  But we'll take Fort Wayne to pull the upset in this re-match, as Horizon League road teams, off back to back losses, have gone 34-15 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent earlier in the season.  Take Fort Wayne.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington.  The Ducks have dropped their first two games of this 3-game home stand.  But the third time should be the charm, as .666 (or better) teams have cashed 67% since 1997 as home favorites of -5+ points, off back to back home losses.  Take Oregon to blow out the Huskies.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars over St. John's.  The Johnnies come into this Big East matchup on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak, including a huge upset win, as a 9-point underdog, over Villanova in their last game.  In contrast, the Friars have lost their last two games SU/ATS.  But I love Providence to turn the tables on St. John's this afternoon, as they're 28-10 ATS at home when priced from +1 to -5 points.  Additionally, Big East teams have covered just 38% over the last 31 years off 5 SU/ATS wins when playing an opponent off back to back losses.  And St. John's has also covered just 7 of 22 vs. Providence when not getting 3+ points.  But the clincher is that Big East teams, off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog over Big East foes with an undefeated conference record, have covered just 35% since 1990 when not getting 5+ points.  Take Providence.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  These two teams met here in Denton yesterday, and the Bulldogs upset North Texas, 68-63, as a 5.5-point underdog.  We'll take the Mean Green to avenge last night's loss, as it's a dominant 18-2 SU at home its last 20.  And notwithstanding last night's upset, it's still covered 14 of its last 18 lined home games.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into a 146-97 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams that lost at home in the previous meeting vs. their opponent.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Washington.  These two Southeast division rivals met last night, here in South Florida, and the Wizards came away with an upset win, 103-100, as a 9-point road underdog.  The price is significantly lower for tonight's game, primarily because Russell Westbrook will be on the floor for the Wizards this evening after not playing on Wednesday, while the Heat's Avery Bradley will be sidelined with a calf injury.  We'll lay the points with Miami, as it's 43-20 ATS off three point spread defeats, as well as a very strong 50-20 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight-up win.  Meanwhile, the Wizards are a wallet-busting 34-63 ATS off an upset road win.  Lay the points with the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Long Island Sharks minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson.  Last night, the 6-4 Sharks were upset here, at home, by 6-9 FDU, 78-70, as a 4-point favorite.  And that loss snapped a two-game win streak of LIU, and extended the Knights' win streak to three games (all 3 victories being upset wins).  But we'll take the Sharks to bounce back off that home defeat, as home favorites have covered a sensational 77.2% since 1990 when playing an opponent with a worse W/L percentage that defeated it earlier in the season, if its foe also was off an upset win, and back to back wins, overall.  Additionally, the Knights fall into a negative 39.6% ATS system of mine which fades certain underdogs of less than 15 points off three straight upset wins.  Lay the points with Long Island.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  These two teams met in Phoenix on Dec. 29, and the Suns blew out New Orleans by 25 points, 111-86, as a 2-point home favorite.  Tonight's game is in New Orleans, and we'll take the Pelicans as a home underdog to avenge that blowout loss.  Indeed, the Suns are a horrible 46-73-4 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe they defeated by 20+ points earlier in the season, including 6-23-1 ATS on the road if their opponent was off back to back losses, while New Orleans has gone 10-0-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 25-point loss.  And the Pelicans are also 14-8 ATS in the last 22 meetings with the Suns.  Finally, the Pelicans fall into a 93-36 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies played last night in San Antonio, and completed a 2-game sweep of the Spurs with 133-102 blowout win.  And that followed a 129-112 victory over San Antonio on Saturday.  But off those two huge upset wins, we'll fade the unrested Grizzlies in Indianapolis tonight.  Indeed, teams off back-to-back upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-14-1 ATS if they won their previous game by double-digits, and weren't favored by 10+ points in their current game.  Even better:  the Pacers are off back-to-back upset losses to Philly and Charlotte.  But Indiana is an awesome 69-33 ATS off back to back ATS losses, if they were favored by less than 14 points at home, and matched up against an opponent off a win.  Lay the points with Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers + the points over SIU-Edwardsville.  The Panthers come into this game on a ghastly 8-game SU/ATS losing streak.  And they were actually favored in five of those eight games.  And their last three games were among the four worst performances, as they failed to cover the spread by 20, 18.5 and 27.5 points.  This is certainly an "ugly" play tonight, but we will take the Panthers as a small underdog to avenge their loss to Edwardsville a week ago.  For technical support, we note that NCAA teams that failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in each of their three previous games have covered 64.7% over the last 31 years.  Take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners have won five games in a row.  And Oklahoma was dressed up as an underdog in each of its last three games.  They'll now travel to Lubbock to try to avenge a 69-67 home loss in Norman, back in December.  Unfortunately for Oklahoma, .700 (or better) NCAA teams off 3 upset wins are an awful 36% ATS in the regular season since 1990, including 2-7 ATS this season.  And Big 12 underdogs are a wallet-breaking 35% ATS in conference games when they won and covered their previous five games.  Take Texas Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over Phoenix.  The Mavs are currently on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak following a six-point loss to these Suns two nights ago.  But Dallas will get a 2nd bite at the apple this evening, and we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Mavs.  Dallas is a super 24-9 ATS off a loss, when playing with revenge from a home loss against an opponent off a SU win.  And Phoenix is an awful 11-22 ATS when off an upset road win, and not getting double digits.  And it's 21-32 ATS vs. revenge-minded losing teams.  Finally, Dallas falls into 232-119 and 83-52 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves minus the points over Indiana State.  These two teams met yesterday in Terre Haute, and the Sycamores came away with a narrow, 60-57, win. We'll take the Braves to avenge that defeat, and lay the small number this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that .316 (or better) Missouri Valley teams are 173-110 ATS if they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With the Braves currently riding a 4-game point spread losing streak, we'll step in and take them in this revenge spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over UNLV.  Nevada comes into this rivalry game off back to back road losses at Wyoming.  But the good news for Nevada is that it's a wallet-fattening 56-23 ATS vs. .700 (or worse) foes, if the Wolf Pack weren't favored by double-digits, and were off a loss to a conference foe.  Meanwhile, the Rebels are a woeful 25-44-2 ATS on the road when not getting more than 6 points.  Take Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks minus the points over Sam Houston State.  The Lumberjacks saw their six-game win streak snapped in Abilene on Wednesday, when they fell to the Wildcats, 82-62, as a 2.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, the Bearkats have won their last 10 games, including a 75-70 win over the Islanders in Corpus Christi, as a 9-point road favorite.  But even though Sam Houston has won its last 10 games, it finds itself installed as an underdog this afternoon.  And the reason should be obvious:  the Lumberjacks just don't lose at home, in Nacogdoches.  To wit:  they've won 16 straight, and 24 of their last 25 home games.  Even better:  the Lumberjacks fall into one of my favorite systems which is 382-237 ATS since 1990, which plays on certain home favorites with strong home courts.  Take the Lumberjacks to blow out the Bearkats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Utah.  The Jazz have won and covered 11 straight, including a 109-105 win over the Nuggets when these two teams met in Salt Lake City two weeks ago.  Today's game is in Denver, and we'll take the homestanding Nuggets to avenge that loss.  Indeed, NBA teams off 5 straight ATS wins are a soft 47-83 ATS when not favored by 3+ points, if their opponent lost and failed to cover by more than 9 points in its previous game.  With the Nuggets in off a double-digit SU/ATS loss to the Spurs, 119-109, on Friday, and also 29-19 ATS their last 48 when playing with revenge, we'll grab the points with the home dog today.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over UAB.  This is a rematch of a game played in Murfreesboro on Thursday, which was won by UAB, 70-59.  Tonight's game will switch venues, and be played in Birmingham.  And we'll take the double-digits with the underdog, as UAB is a dreadful 14-29-1 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes if the Blazers won and covered the spread in the meeting earlier in the season.  Take Middle Tennessee + the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds + the points over Drake.  The Redbirds went 0-2 SU/ATS at home last weekend when they were upset not once, but twice by Valparaiso.  But road underdogs of more than 12 points have covered 63.1% since 1994 off back to back upset losses at home.  And sub-.400 teams are 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 22-4 ATS their last 26) vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Redbirds + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Mount St Marys Mountaineers minus the points over Sacred Heart.  The Pioneers went into Emmitsburg yesterday, and upset Mount St. Mary's, 61-58, as a 5-point underdog.  That was Mount St. Mary's first home loss this season.  And it had been 3-0 SU/ATS at home, with an average cover by 13.33 points greater than the point spread.  We'll take the Mountaineers to turn the tables on Sacred Heart, and avenge that home upset loss with a blowout win today, as Mount St. Mary's is 13-9 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and 18-13 ATS off back to back losses, overall.  Sacred Heart, meanwhile, is 5-9 ATS off a road win, and 9-14 ATS off back to back wins, overall.  And the Pioneers also fall into a negative 93-150 ATS system of mine that goes against certain underdogs in conference games off back to back wins.  Take the Mountaineers to blow out Sacred Heart.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Dixie State Trailblazers + the points over California Baptist.  These two teams met last night, and the Lancers notched their 5th straight victory, and handed the Trailblazers their 7th straight loss, with an 89-74 win.  But we'll grab the points with the Trailblazers in this rematch.  And, for technical suport, we note that home teams off 5+ wins have covered just 32.3% since 1990 against conference foes off 5+ losses, if our home team wasn't favored by 12+ points.  Take Dixie State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over North Dakota.  Last night's game between these two Summit League rivals went down to the wire, and the Fighting Hawks won by two points, 83-81, as a 4-point home favorite.  For Round 2, the oddsmakers have increased the number slightly, and we'll happily take the added value with the road underdog.  North Dakota is a poor 8-23 ATS its last 31 when not playing with revenge, and 5-12 ATS off a straight-up win.  Moreover, Western Illinois falls into a 46-14 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off conference losses.  Take the points with the Leathernecks.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings won last night against Toronto, as an underdog.  And that was their 2nd straight upset win, as they won at Orlando on Wednesday.  Sacramento now will play a Miami team which should be in an ornery mood following five straight losses.  But all five of those games were vs. talented opposition (Raptors, Nuggets, Clippers, Nets (twice)).  The Heat will no doubt relish tonight's game against the 8-10 Kings.  And Miami is 50-19 ATS off back to back losses when playing an opponent off a SU win.  And it's 43-18 ATS on a 3-game point spread losing streak.  Take Miami minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Stanford.  The Cardinal come into Tempe off back to back upset wins over UCLA and Arizona.  Unfortunately, underdogs off back to back upset wins over .750 (or better) conference foes have not been profitable over the last 31 years.  Meanwhile, the Sun Devils snapped a six-game losing streak on Thursday with a 72-68 win over California.  But they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread, which extended their ATS futility this season to 2-11 ATS.  But this lack of success "in Vegas" has created point spread value here, and we'll take advantage of this value, and lay the small number.  The Sun Devils are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 meetings with Stanford, and 11-6 ATS as a home favorite vs. Stanford.  And ASU is also 8-4-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including a perfect 3-0 ATS at home.  Finally, the Sun Devils fall into a super NCAA Basketball system of mine which is 252-168 ATS since 1990, as well as a 2nd system which is 188-114 ATS.  Take the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.