Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over the Philly 76ers.  Jacque Vaughn's men were blown out of Games 1 + 2.  But we'll grab the points with the home puppy in Game 3, as the 76ers are a woeful 12-27-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less points (or PK) on the road off back to back wins, when they've owned a win percentage of .625 (or greater).  Meanwhile, the Nets are a solid 60-29 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when facing a foe off a 9-point (or greater) win, if the Nets weren't favored by more than 2 points.  Brooklyn also falls into 65-38, 92-55 and 161-106 ATS systems of mine that play on certain playoff teams off blowout losses.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Milwaukee suffered a loss in Game 1, as Miami went into Fiserv Forum, and upset the Bucks, 130-117.  Trailing in a playoff series isn't unfamiliar territory for Milwaukee, so I don't expect that it will be discouraged.  Indeed, the Bucks are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS in the Playoffs when they were trailing or tied in the series.  Even better:  off an upset playoff loss, the Bucks have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, Miami is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS off an upset playoff win.  Finally, the Bucks are a wallet-fattening 52-22-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 21-4 ATS when playing with rest off a home loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers upset the Grizzlies on Sunday, 128-112, as a 5.5-point underdog, behind 29 points from Rui Hachimura, and 23 from Austin Reaves.  We'll take the Grizzlies on Wednesday to level the series at 1 game apiece, as NBA teams off playoff losses by more than 15 points that also failed to cover the spread by more than 20 in that defeat, have gone 106-76-1 ATS since 1991.  Even better:  Memphis is 8-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are a poor 5-24-1 ATS on the road when playing a foe they upset in the season's previous meeting.  Take the Grizzlies in Game #2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Los Angeles.  Kawhi Leonard led the Clips to victory in Game 1 with 38 points, as Los Angeles upset Phoenix, 115-110.  We'll take the Suns to bounce back on Tuesday, as they're 62-30-1 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season.  And if it's a playoff game, then our 62-30 stat zooms to 11-1 ATS.  Lay the points with the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks.  New York upset the Cavaliers in Game 1, 101-97.  And that was Cleveland's 2nd straight upset defeat, overall.  We'll take the Cavs to bounce back in Game 2, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, including 79% when priced as a favorite of less than 8 points.  Additionally, since 1990, favorites of less than 12 points have cashed 60% in the playoffs off back to back upset losses.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  In the pandemic-impacted 2020 season, the Bucks were the number 1 seed, but were bounced out of the playoffs by the then-No. 5 seeded Heat.  However, since that series loss, Milwaukee has dominated the Heat here, at home, as the Bucks are 7-0 straight-up, and 5-2 ATS, with an average point spread differential of 10.3 ppg.  The Bucks come into Sunday's Game 1 vs. Miami off back to back losses in what were (admittedly) meaningless games.  This game, of course, is anything but meaningless.  And we'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 52-21-1 ATS at home off back to back losses.  Take the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over the Golden State Warriors.  This season, the Kings have covered 3 of 4 vs. Golden State.  Coincidentally, these two teams met two games ago, and the Warriors won, 119-97, for their only point spread win of the season vs. Sacramento.  Notwithstanding that loss, since 2017, Sacramento is a super 18-8 ATS vs. the Warriors, including 10-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And Golden State is a horrid 32-72 ATS off a point spread win when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, I just can't get behind the Warriors on the road tonight.  For the season, the Warriors are a woeful 11-30 straight-up, and 12-28-1 ATS away from San Francisco, including 2-14-1 ATS when the point spread was less than five points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Heat were upset here, at home, by Atlanta in its initial Play-in round game.  We'll take Miami to bounce back, as it's 66-34-3 ATS as a winning team when rested, and favored by 4+ points off an upset loss.  Additionally, in the Playoffs or Play-in round, the Heat are 14-0 ATS their last 14 off an upset loss when facing a sub-.700 foe which won its previous game.  Lay the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over New Orleans.  This is a huge game for both teams, as it will greatly impact their seeding in the Western conference.  We'll side with the homestanding T-Wolves, as New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 8-24-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, including 1-13 ATS off a straight-up win.  Take the T-Wolves minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Lakers can finish anywhere from #6 to #8 in the Western conference, so they're incentivized to win this afternoon.  We'll lay the points with the rested Lakers, and go against an unrested Jazz team playing its 3rd game in four days.  The Jazz upset the Nuggets in Salt Lake City yesterday, as a 10-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Utah, unrested teams have covered just 38 of 98 following an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) home underdog.  Take the Lakers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Toronto comes into this game off back to back losses to the Boston Celtics.  And it will also seek to avenge a 7-point loss to these Bucks, at Milwaukee last month.  We'll lay the points with the Raptors, as they're 124-80-5 ATS off back to back losses, including 11-6-1 ATS this season, and 14-5-1 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a division rival.  Take Toronto.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks were upset at home by the Philadelphia 76ers in their previous game, and are now a road underdog at Boston on this final day of the regular season.  We'll go against the Hawks, as road dogs have covered just 32.5% since 1990 in the final game of the season, if they were off an upset home loss.  Take the Celtics.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Miami Heat.  The Magic may not be headed toward the post-season.  But it's been a successful season by any measure.  Orlando's 34-47 SU and 45-33-3 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS as an underdog of +4 (or more) points.  The Magic are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 meetings vs. Miami.  Take the Magic + the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers come into this game off an upset win over Atlanta as an 11.5-point underdog.  We'll fade Philly today, as .625 (or better) road underdogs have covered just 36% of division games since 1990 off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Brooklyn.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Bulls have qualified for the Play-in round, while Dallas is still fighting to do the same.  The odds are against Dallas, of course, but hope does remain.  But that hope will be extinguished if it loses to the Bulls tonight.  Chicago will be playing its final road game of the season, and was blown out, 105-92, at Milwaukee, on Wednesday.  We'll go against the Bulls, as .450 (or better) underdogs have covered just 31 of 85 off a straight-up loss, when playing their final road game vs. foes off a win.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Pelicans were blown out by 22 points when these teams last met.  New Orleans is playing its final home game of the season tonight, and it's well-motivated given that it is in 8th place, but can still finish as high as 5th (or as low as 9th).  The Knicks, on the other hand, are locked into the 5th seed in the Eastern conference.  For technical support, consider that NBA teams favored by more than 4 points in their final home game have covered 67% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat.  Take New Orleans.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Nets reside in 6th place, and need to win to ensure they stay ahead of 7th-seeded Miami (and avoid the dreaded Play-in round).  Orlando, of course, has long since been eliminated from the Playoff hunt.  The Magic did, however, defeat Brooklyn, 119-106, less than two weeks ago.  I look for the Nets to avenge that loss, as they're 74-33 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a 13-point (or worse) defeat.  Take Brooklyn.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  This game means nothing to the Sixers, but a lot to the Hawks, who sit in 8th (but just 1 game ahead of 9th-seeded Toronto).  Thus, Philly's Joel Embiid is not expected to suit up, and others may be in street clothes, as well.  The Sixers are a poor 16-36 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points vs. winning foes.  Take Atlanta to blow out Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  This game will be played at the Spurs' "home away from home" -- Austin, Texas.  The Spurs were blown out by the Phoenix Suns, 115-94, on Tuesday.  But we'll take them to bounce back tonight in this revenge game vs. Portland, as the Blazers blew them out by 20 points in the previous meeting.  San Antonio is 21-12 ATS as a home favorite when playing with revenge.  And it's 36-10-2 ATS off a loss by 18+ points, if it was favored by less than 8 points in its current game (including 21-3-2 ATS at home).  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavs are locked into the #4 spot in the Eastern conference, so they'll have little incentive tonight.  Orlando is outside of the playoff picture, but is still competing hard.  The Magic are 45-31-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 ATS their last 10.  This is Orlando's final home game of the season, and it falls into a 94-54 system of mine which plays on certain teams in their last home game.  Lay the points with the Magic.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Clippers come into tonight's game off a 122-114 loss to the Pelicans four days ago, while the Lakers won, 135-133, in overtime at Utah last night.  We'll lay the points with the well-rested Clippers tonight, as the Lakers are 45-71 ATS off a win, when playing on the road vs. a foe off a loss.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  There's no doubt the Mavericks' acquisition of Kyrie Irving has not yielded the intended benefits.  Still, hope remains that the team can qualify for the Play-in round.  But to do so, it will have to win at least two of its remaining three games (but likely all three).  And even a 3-0 mark might not be good enough to pass Oklahoma City.  The good news, though, for the Mavericks is that all three games are at home and they will be favored in each.  We'll lay the points tonight with Dallas, as it's 150-95-6 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win.  Take the Mavs.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies won, 119-109, vs. Portland last night to sew up the league's best home record this season (35-6).  Unfortunately, they've been dreadful on the road this season, with a 15-23 SU and 13-23-2 ATS record, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog vs. winning teams.  Even worse, when not favored by more than 1 point on the road vs. winning teams, the Grizzlies have lost their last 15 games, straight-up (1-13-1 ATS).  Lay the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bulls play this game with revenge from a 112-100 defeat.  And Chicago is 7-1 ATS this season when playing with revenge from a 12-point (or worse) defeat.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee falls into a negative 37% ATS system of mine which fades certain teams late in the season off double-digit wins.  We'll grab the points with the Bulls.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Lakers are making a final push for the Playoffs, and enter tonight's game on a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS streak.  This is a far cry from when these two teams met earlier in the season.  Utah took two meetings from the Lakers on November 4 and November 7 when the Lakers were in the midst of a 2-10 SU/ATS start to the season, while the Jazz were in the midst of a 10-3 SU/ATS start.  But now, it's the Jazz who are floundering, as they've lost six of their last seven games to fall out of the Playoff picture (if the season ended today).  The Lakers are 55-31 ATS as a revenge-minded road favorite.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are a miserable 59-92 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 11-32 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  With Houston in off a 134-109 blowout loss to the Lakers, and playing its final home game of the season, we'll take it to bounce back tonight.  Take Houston + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Portland.  The Blazers upset Memphis here, 122-112, when these teams last met.  We'll take the Grizzlies to avenge that loss, as they're 33-14 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset home loss earlier in the season, including 17-4 ATS as a favorite.  Lay the points.

At 9:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Connecticut.  The line in this game opened at -6, but quickly spiked higher.  By my math, it's too high.  We'll grab the points with Brian Dutcher's Aztecs, as teams seeded #5 (or worse) have cashed 69% in the NCAA Tournament as underdogs from the Elite Eight round forward.  That bodes well for San Diego State in this Championship game.  As does the fact that SDSU is 62-38 ATS off a point spread loss when playing an opponent off a win  Grab the points with the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Denver.  The Warriors will seek to avenge a 17-point loss here to the Nuggets two months ago.  We'll grab the points, as the Warriors are 73-46 ATS as an underdog when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss, including 9-0 ATS their last nine.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Bucks lost by 41 points to Boston on Thursday.  We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as Milwaukee is 31-15-1 ATS as a favorite off a home defeat, including 7-0-1 ATS its last eight.  Take the Bucks.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Minnesota.  The Blazers come into this afternoon's game off 3 massive blowout losses to New Orleans (124-90), Sacramento (120-80) and Sacramento, again (138-114).  We'll take the points with Portland, as NBA teams off three straight 20-point defeats have covered 60.7% since 1990.  Take Portland.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut/Miami game Under the total.  After shooting just 30.4% in its opening round win (63-56) vs. Drake, Miami has shot the lights out in its last three games.  Miami scored 85 in its 2nd round win vs. Indiana, 89 in its Sweet 16 round victory over Houston, and 88 in its Elite Eight triumph over Texas.  The Hurricanes were a combined 94-of-179 (52.5%) from the floor in those three games.  Those numbers were well above Miami's season averages of 79.6 ppg and 48.5% FG shooting.  Indeed, in ACC Conference play this season, the Hurricanes shot 50% (or better) in less than half of their games.  And I expect their red-hot shooting to come down in this semi-final match-up vs. UConn, as the Huskies have allowed just 34.9 percent shooting (81-for-232) in their four NCAA Tournament wins.  Connecticut is 42-24 Under away from home vs. teams that convert 48% (or better) of their field goals.  And it's also gone Under 59.3% vs. foes that scored 85+ in their previous game, and 62% vs. foes that average more than 79 points per game.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over the New Orleans Pelicans.  We played against Los Angeles last night, and got the $$$ with the Memphis Grizzlies, in a 108-94 victory.  We'll switch gears and take the Clippers tonight, as they're 44-29-1 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, including 11-4 ATS when playing without rest.  Even better:  the Pelicans upset the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, 107-88.  But Los Angeles is a solid 121-60-4 ATS on the road against foes off upset wins, if the Clippers were not favored by more than five points.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Suns were our preseason pick (at 13-1 odds) to win the NBA title, and they are well-positioned to do it, now that Kevin Durant has returned to the lineup.  Durant made his home debut for his new team in Wednesday's 7-point win over the Timberwolves.  Now, the Suns will look for their 4th straight win, overall, as they'll host the Western Conference's #1 seed, Denver.  Phoenix is a solid 76-52 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Additionally, Denver has covered just 5 of 16 road games when getting more than 3 points, and it's 17-39 ATS when getting more than 4 points from Phoenix.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The T-Wolves have been installed as a small favorite in this critical Western Conference match-up.  Minnesota (39-38) sits a half-game ahead of the Lakers (38-38), as they battle down the stretch for Playoff (or Play-in round) positioning.  The Timberwolves have been horrid as a favorite when they've owned a .500 (or better) record, as they've gone 7-19 ATS.  The Lakers lost 4 weeks ago at home to Minnesota, but are 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with revenge from a loss suffered earlier in the season.  Take L.A.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back meetings here, on Beale Street, between these teams.  The Clippers won, 141-132, on Wednesday, as a road underdog.  We'll take the Grizzlies in the revenge role, as they're 38-21-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss.

At 9:30 pm, on Thursday, in the NIT Tournament Championship game, our selection is on the UAB Blazers, on the moneyline, over North Texas.  This is the 4th meeting this season between these Conference USA rivals.  North Texas won the first two meetings, while UAB won the 3rd meeting, in the Conference USA tournament.  The Mean Green greatly favor a slow pace, as their games average 120.10 ppg, while UAB likes a more up-tempo pace, as its games average 151.55 ppg.  The first two meetings between these teams were played at a very slow pace.  Not surprisingly, the Mean Green won those regular season games.  The first was played at UAB on January 21, and North Texas upset the Blazers, 63-52, as a 3-point road underdog.  The pace was 62.8. Importantly, that game was played without Jelly Walker on the floor, as he was nursing a bruised foot.  Then, on February 9, the Mean Green won at home, as a 2.5-point favorite, 82-79.  That game went into double-overtime, so the high score is extremely misleading; it was tied, 62-62, at the end of regulation, and had a very slow pace of 57.1.  Walker scored 20 points in a losing effort.  The 3rd meeting, which was on March 10, had a much faster pace (68.1) than the prior two meetings, and UAB won, 76-69, as a 2-point favorite.  Although the final margin of victory was seven points, UAB was in complete control the entire way.  It sprinted out to a 22-2 start, and led by as many as 16 points in the 2nd half.  Jelly Walker dominated with 32 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists.  In this 4th meeting, I expect Walker to once again be the best player on the floor, and to lead UAB to the NIT Title.  UAB has gone 14-2 straight-up since Walker returned from injury.  Its two losses were the aforementioned double-overtime loss at North Texas, and the Conference USA Championship game vs. Florida Atlantic (which is playing on Saturday in the Final Four).  We'll take UAB on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Celts suffered a blowout loss to the Washington Wizards on Tuesday, so they'll look to bounce back tonight.  Boston is a solid 27-8 ATS in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 4 points; 14-4 ATS as a road underdog; and 35-15 ATS its last 50 vs. Milwaukee.  Grab the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Ja Morant didn't suit up in last night's game here, at home, vs. Orlando.  But Damichael Cole -- the Grizzlies beat writer for the Memphis Commercial Appeal -- has reported that Morant will play tonight.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Memphis.  The Grizzlies have now won 12 straight home games, 3 shy of their franchise record, and are 43-20-2 ATS at home their last 65.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings between these clubs.  Chicago won by 10, 118-108, on Sunday, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  The Lakers are 52-32 ATS as revenge-minded road favorites, while the Bulls are 45-83 ATS at home vs. Western Conference foes off an ATS loss.  Take the Lakers.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Brooklyn.  The Nets have dropped six of their last seven, and they're now laying double-digits to the Houston Rockets.  Admittedly, Houston is a horrible team.  But I can't get behind Brooklyn as a big favorite.  The Nets are 11-28 ATS their last 39 when laying more than 9 points, including 3-17 ATS vs. sub-.309 teams.  Take Houston + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden St Warriors minus the points over the New Orleans Pelicans.  Golden State comes into tonight's game off a rare home loss, as it fell, 99-96, on Sunday to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  We'll lay the points with Steve Kerr's men tonight, as they're 81-50 ATS off a straight-up loss, when playing an unrested foe, including 59-33-3 ATS at home.  And the Pelicans are 4-14 ATS on the road off a win, if playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Finally, over the past 10 years, the Pelicans are a woeful 2-20 straight-up, and 7-14-1 ATS at Golden State, including 0-8-1 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 points.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over the North Texas Mean Green.  The Big 10 Conference has been dominant in the NIT Tourney since 1990, and especially at the 2nd round forward, where it's gone 54-33-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  We'll grab the points with the Badgers, as they're 34-13 ATS as a non-conference underdog/PK since 2004, and 9-0 ATS the past two years away from home when playing a non-conference foe, and not favored by 4+ points.  Meanwhile North Texas is 2-4 ATS vs. Big 10 opponents.  And Conference USA teams are a horrible 7-24 ATS away from home vs. Big 10 foes when not getting 14+ points.  Take Wisconsin + the points in this NIT semi-final game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  These two teams met earlier this month in Minneapolis, and the Wolves upset the Kings, 138-134, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  The NBA season has less than 10 games left, and both of these Western Conference foes are locked into tight battles for playoff positioning.  The Kings sit two games behind 2nd-seeded Memphis with eight to play, while Minnesota is in 7th place, a half-game behind 6th-seeded Golden State, and a half-game ahead of 8th-seeded New Orleans.  Last night, the T-Wolves upset the Warriors in San Francisco.  Not many teams go into Golden State's building and win.  And even less follow a victory up with another victory their next game.  Indeed, teams off wins at Golden State are 32-49-5 ATS, including 1-8 ATS their last nine.  Likewise, teams off a win over the Warriors (regardless of venue) are a poor 1-12 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Sacramento also falls into 150-70 and 488-347 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Boston Celtics.  The Spurs may be bereft of talent, but they still compete hard.  Today, they're playing the 4th of a 4-game road trip against a Celtics team which only beat them by 5 points earlier this season (as a 15-point favorite).  The Spurs are once again a massive underdog vs. Boston, which enters off back to back SU/ATS wins over Sacramento and Indiana.  We'll grab the points, as San Antonio is 90-58-2 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes that are off an ATS Win or Tie in their previous game.  And Boston is 9-20-2 ATS as a favorite following back-to-back covers as a favorite.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets blew out the Miami Heat last night, while the Magic were off for the 2nd straight night after upsetting New York here, on Thursday, 111-106.  We'll go against Brooklyn, as it's 14-25 ATS when playing without rest off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Magic have quietly covered five straight games to move their season ATS record to 41-30-3 ATS.  And home favorites off 5+ ATS wins have covered 59% since 1990 in the final 10 games of the regular season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Creighton/San Diego State game.  Dating back to head coach Brian Dutcher's first season, San Diego State has gone 17-4 under its last 21 post-season games.  Likewise, Greg McDermott's Bluejays have gone 20-9 under their last 29 post-season games.  We'll look for this Elite 8 game to go UNDER the total, as the Aztecs have now played 13 of their last 14 games under the total, including 11-0 under since February 15.  Additionally, the quarterfinal rounds of the NCAA/NIT Tournaments have gone under 33-19 their last 52.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  The Mavs lost a game they really couldn't afford to lose on Friday when Charlotte went into American Airlines Center and stunned the Mavs, 117-109, as a 15.5-point underdog.  That was the biggest upset in the NBA this season.  Dallas is now in the precarious position of being 11th in the Western Conference standings, so it has to have a strong record over its last 8 games if it is to supplant any of the T-Wolves, Lakers, Pelicans or Thunder for a Play-in berth.  We'll lay the points with the Mavs in this revenge spot, as NBA teams have covered 59% on the road if they were playing back to back games against the same opponent, and failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points in the previous game.  Moreover, the Hornets are 8-15-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe, while Dallas is a super 58-29-2 ATS on the road when in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans blew out the Clippers, 112-91, in the last meeting.  We'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as New Orleans is 0-12 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points vs. a revenge-minded foe which New Orleans defeated earlier in the season.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  This is a great match-up between the two #1-seeded teams in their respective conferences.  Denver's been installed as a home favorite.  And we'll lay the points, as Milwaukee's 0-18 ATS since May 19, 2019 when getting more than 1 point, if it's owned a win percentage of .650 (or better).  And the Bucks are also 100-156-7 ATS off 3+ wins when playing a rested foe.  Take Denver.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs + the points over Connecticut.  The Huskies come into this game off three straight blowout wins over Iona (87-63), St Mary's (70-55) and Arkansas (88-65).  But off those three double-digit wins, we'll fade the Huskies in this Elite 8 Round.  Indeed, favorites of 5 points or less, off three straight wins by 7+ points, have covered just 6 of 28 Elite 8 Round games since 1995.  Additionally, the Huskies are a soft 15-23 ATS as a single-digit favorite off 3 SU/ATS wins.  And Gonzaga is 75-47-7 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .750.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Nets (39-34) and Heat (40-34) are in a tight battle for playoff seeding.  But the Nets are on a 5-game losing streak, and that doesn't bode well for them tonight.  Indeed, in the final 10 games of a season, in match-ups between winning teams with win percentages below .575, teams off back-to-back losses have covered just 16% over the past 25 seasons.  Even better:  the Heat are 9-0 ATS as a revenge-minded favorite of -1.5 (or more) points vs. winning foes.  Take Miami minus the points.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Philadelphia.  Golden State lost the first meeting of the season, 118-106.  But that game was in Philly.  Tonight's game is in San Francisco.  And the Warriors have been terrific at home this season, as they're 29-7 SU and have covered their last eight in a row.  We played on the 76ers two nights ago, and they rewarded us with a blowout win vs. the Chicago Bulls, 116-91.  We'll go against the Sixers here, as the Warriors are 14-0 ATS their last 14 at home vs. foes off wins by 12+ points.  And Philly is 15-34 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points vs. winning opposition.  Finally, the home team is 40-23 ATS in this series, including 6-0 ATS the last six when playing with revenge from a loss suffered earlier in the year.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Miami-Florida.  Jim Larranaga's men come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Unfortunately, the Hurricanes are a horrid 9-20 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even worse for Miami:  over the last 5 seasons, the ACC Conference has covered just eight of 27 games vs. the American Athletic Conference, including 0-4 ATS in the post-season!  Finally, Houston is a reliable 34-12-1 ATS vs. foes off ATS wins in their 2 previous games, provided Houston wasn't off back to back ATS wins in its 2 previous games.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over San Diego St.  The San Diego State Aztecs won the Mountain West Conference this season.  But the Mountain West has been a huge money-burner in the NCAA Tournament.  Over the last 24 seasons, its teams have gone 24-58 straight-up, and 26-55-1 ATS, including 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in the Sweet 16 round!  Similarly, San Diego State is 2-15 straight-up, and 5-11-1 ATS as in the NCAA/NIT Tournaments when not favored by more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, the SEC Conference has gone 30-3 SU and 23-10 ATS when favored by 7 or more points against a .723 (or better) foe off an NCAA tourney win.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back meetings between these teams.  OKC won, 101-100, on Tuesday, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  The price is shorter tonight, as Paul George will be sidelined for Los Angeles.  We'll take the Clippers tonight, as home favorites have covered 62.2% vs. non-winning foes in the 2nd of back to back meetings between the teams, if our home favorite was upset at home in the first meeting.  Additionally, the Clippers have covered the spread 70% since 1990 as a home favorite when playing with double revenge at home off a home loss.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points against Connecticut.  Arkansas upset the #1-seeded Kansas Jayhawks, 72-71, on Saturday, while 4th-seeded UConn blew out 5th-seeded St. Mary's, 70-55, on Sunday, as a 4-point favorite.  We'll grab the points with #8-seeded Arkansas, as it's 18-6 ATS as an underdog of 2+ points off a SU win.  And it's 20-9 ATS in non-conference games when not favored by 9+ points (including 11-4 ATS as an underdog).  Meanwhile, NCAA Tourney teams (like UConn) seeded #7 (or better), off an NCAA Tourney win, in which they covered the spread by more than 10 points, have gone 0-10 ATS vs. foes seeded #8 (or worse).  Take Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats over Utah Valley St.  The Wolverines will play host to the Cincinnati Bearcats tonight, and have been installed as a small favorite.  The Wolves have only covered 33% at home when not favored by 2+ points, and are also 1-6 ATS at home in non-conference games when not getting more than 5 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Chicago.  This is the 2nd of back to back games between these teams.  Chicago won Round 1, 109-105.  We'll take the Sixers in the rematch, and note that they're 28-11 ATS their last 39 when not favored by 5+ points.  And Philly's 26-8 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores over the UAB Blazers.  The Blazers are on the road tonight in Nashville to take on Vandy, and the game has been installed as a 'Pk'em' (or near 'Pk'em' at the sportsbooks).  UAB has been miserable on the road when not getting more than 1 point, as it's gone 20-39 ATS, including 12-37-1 ATS when its opponent wasn't off a win by more than 10 points.  That doesn't bode well for UAB tonight.  Nor does the fact that Vandy is 45-22-4 ATS when not favored by 8+ points.  Take the Commodores.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Clippers have excelled at home (36-18 ATS) when the game has been projected to be high-scoring, with Over/Under lines north of 220 points.  But they've been horrible at home (18-34 ATS) in games with O/U lines at 220 or below.  The Over/Under line in this game has been installed at 236, so that bodes well for the home team.  As does the fact that the Clippers are 16-9 ATS vs. OKC when playing with revenge. Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over Oregon.  The Ducks won back to back home games to kick off this tournament, as did the Badgers.  Today, Wisconsin will take to the road for the first time, and has been installed as an underdog.  That bodes well for Wisky, as it's 52-26-3 ATS in non-conference games when it's been the underdog, including 14-5-2 ATS in the post-season.  Grab the points with the Badgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  Gregg Popovich's men roared back from a 24-point deficit to down Atlanta, 126-118.  But off that win, we'll fade the Silver and Black tonight, as they're 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS off a SU home win as an underdog of 4+ points.  Additionally, the Spurs are 5-16 ATS at New Orleans if the Spurs were off a SU home win.  Take the Pelicans minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Eastern Kentucky.  The Colonels won, 89-88, in overtime vs. Indiana State, yesterday.  Off that high-scoring win, we'll fade the Colonels today.  Indeed, teams off games in which they scored 85+ points have gone 8-24 ATS in the CBI Tournament against foes that scored less then 85 in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Thunderbirds.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over the North Texas Mean Green.  The Cowboys are 32-19-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. non-conference foes, if Okie State was priced between -3 and -12.5 points, while North Texas is 17-24 ATS as a road underdog in non-conference games when priced from +3 to +12.5 points.  Take Oklahoma State.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  The Warriors' road losing streak is now 11 straight following their 133-119 loss at Memphis, on Saturday.  The good news for Golden State tonight is that it will be playing an opponent with the 2nd worst NBA record on the season.  The 18-53 Rockets are also 28-41-2 ATS, including 4-13 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses.  Golden State has won 9 straight in this series (6-2-1 ATS).  This season, the Warriors are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with the average win by 13.67 points.  And since 2001, the Warriors' average victory in their nine games vs. Houston has been by 14 points.  I expect more of the same, here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Radford Highlanders + the points over San Jose State.  The Spartans blew out Southern Indiana, 77-52, on Saturday.  We'll fade the Spartans off that big win, as they're 0-7 ATS their last seven (and 2-11 ATS their last 13) off a 25-point win.  And Radford is 7-0 ATS its last 7 as an underdog of +4 (or more) points.  Take the Highlanders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Indiana State Sycamores minus the points over Eastern Kentucky.  We played against the Sycamores as a double-digit favorite on Saturday, and got the $$$ with South Carolina Upstate.  The tariff is lower today, and we'll lay the smaller number vs. the Colonels.  Eastern Kentucky won yesterday, 91-75, vs. Cleveland State.  Unfortunately, the Colonels are 10-30 ATS off a 14-point SU/ATS win, if they were not getting 10+ points.  Take Indiana State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Utah Valley St.  This is the Buffaloes' second straight home game, while the Wolverines are playing their second straight road game following their 83-69 upset at New Mexico.  Colorado is 67% ATS at home when playing the 2nd of back to back home games against a foe playing the second of back to back road games.  And teams (like Utah Valley) off upset wins in the opening round of the NIT Tourney have covered just 38.3% vs. foes not off an upset NIT Tourney win.  Lay the points with the Buffaloes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Marquette.  The Spartans blew out Southern Cal, 72-62, as a 2.5-point favorite, and have been installed as a small underdog vs. the Big East Champion Golden Eagles, who crushed Vermont, 78-61.  We'll grab the points with the Spartans, as Tom Izzo's men have gone 24-10 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 5 points, including 11-1 ATS off an 8-point (or greater) win, and 5-0 ATS in the Tourney's 2nd round.  Even better:  teams (like Marquette) riding 10-game (or longer) win streaks, have covered just 36.1% in the NCAA Tourney's 2nd Round off a double-digit SU/ATS win in Round 1.  Take Michigan State + the points.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Phoenix.  The Thunder are in 9th place in the tightly bunched Western Conference, but are just 2 games behind Phoenix, which sits in 4th place.  So, if OKC can get hot down the stretch, it can surely reach that all-important #4 seed.  Today's game is critical for that objective.  These teams met earlier this season, and the Suns blew out OKC by 31 points.  We'll take the Thunder in the rematch, as favorites have covered 56% when playing with revenge from a 30-point (or worse) defeat.  Additionally, OKC is 62-42 ATS as a revenge-minded home favorite.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Oklahoma St Cowboys minus the points over Eastern Washington.  The Cowboys have covered 60.3% since 1990 in non-conference home games when favored by 12 or less points, while the Eagles are 26-37 ATS as a road underdog in non-conference games.  Lay the points.

At 1:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Duquesne Dukes minus the points over Rice.  The Dukes come into this CBI Tournament game off back to back blowout losses to La Salle (81-70) and Fordham (87-60).  But we'll lay the points with Duquesne on Sunday, as .600 (or better) Atlantic 10 Conference teams have gone 11-0 ATS in the tourneys against non-conference foes not off back to back losses.  And Conference USA underdogs, priced from +3.5 to +7 points, have been a wallet-busting 15-39 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Take Duquesne minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Panthers upset the Cyclones, 59-41, on Friday, which was their second straight upset win in this Tournament (they also upset Mississippi St in the 'play-in' round).  Unfortunately for Jeff Capel's men, NCAA teams seeded #6 or worse, have cashed just 35% since 1990 off a win by 15+ points, if they were an underdog of 6 or less points in their current game.  And teams off back to back upset wins in the NCAA tourney have covered just 31% since 1990 vs. foes off a point spread loss. Lay the points with the Musketeers.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/Northwestern game.  The Bruins put up 86 points in their first game in this tournament, while Northwestern tallied 75.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, here (or at least one which topped this relatively-low total).  But I think we're in for a much lower-scoring game than each of these teams played on Friday.  Looking back at Northwestern's season, we see that it played 9 of 10 games under the total to end its regular season, before going over the total in its two post-season games (vs. Penn St and Boise St).  But the Wildcats have gone UNDER the total 61.1% off back-to-back overs.  And the Under also falls into two totals systems of mine that are 60.5% and 62.7% since 2016.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Chicago.  The Heat will be the beneficiaries of a favorable schedule tonight, as it will be Miami's 3rd game in 7 days, but Chicago's 3rd game in 4 days.  Even worse for Chicago:  Miami had the last two nights off, while the Bulls played last night, and had to go into double-overtime in their 139-131 victory over the Timberwolves.  All of this is reason enough to fade the Bulls.  But we also get the added benefit of the Heat playing with revenge from not 1, but 2 home losses.  Lay the points with the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Texas.  There were a lot of impressive performances in the opening round.  But most were not as impressive as the Nittany Lions' upset blowout win over a very good Texas A&M squad.  Penn State was a 2.5-point underdog, but destroyed the Aggies, 76-59.  The Nittany Lions held A&M to just 33.9% FG shooting.  And that was PSU's 6th straight cover.  Even more astounding:  the Nittany Lions are now 15-0-2 ATS their last 17 neutral court games (and 31-7-4 ATS their last 42).  Take the Nittany Lions + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Auburn.  The Coogs come into this game vs. Auburn off back to back ATS losses.  But the good news is that Houston is 10-0 ATS off back to back point spread defeats, when priced from -5 to -20.  Lay the points with the #1-seeded Cougars.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over the Princeton Tigers.  Princeton had a huge win on Thursday when it eliminated the #2-seeded Arizona Wildcats, 59-55.  Unfortunately, underdogs of +7 or less points have gone 0-9 ATS following a upset tourney win as a double-digit dog.  Take Missouri.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils have won their last 2 games by double-digits, including a 23-point blowout of Oral Roberts on Thursday.  Unfortunately, the Dukies are an awful 1-11 ATS off back to back double-digit wins.  And Tennessee is 33-19 ATS as an underdog in non-conference games.  Take the Volunteers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Hofstra.  The Bearcats are 13-2 ATS their last 15 as a home favorite, and we'll lay the small number on this Saturday afternoon, as they fall into a Tourney system of mine which is 94-45 ATS.  Take the Bearcats.

At 12 Noon, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores minus the points over Michigan.  We played on both of these teams in their opening round games, and cashed with Michigan over Toledo, and Vanderbilt over Yale.  The Commodores are on a red-hot 11-2 SU/ATS run, and I won't step in front of them here, at home.  Moreover, the Wolverines had their 2nd best shooting game of the season vs. Toledo, as they converted 58.2% of their attempts.  But Michigan is 1-8 ATS following a 55% (or better) shooting performance.  Take Vanderbilt.

At 11 am, on Saturday, our selection is on the South Carolina Upstate Spartans + the points over Indiana St.  This CBI Tournament game will be played at a neutral site, in Daytona Beach, Florida.  The Sycamores have been installed as a big favorite.  But they're an ugly 13-25 ATS in non-conference games when favored by more than 7 points.  Meanwhile, USC Upstate is 40-21 ATS its last 61 when not favored by more than 1 point.  Finally, the Big South Conference has been extremely strong in the minor post-season tournaments, as its teams have gone 17-6 ATS, while the Missouri Valley Conference is 22-31 ATS its last 53 minor tournament games.  Grab the points with the Spartans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Kent St.  The Golden Flashes won the Mid-American Conference with a 93-78 win over Toledo.  Toledo then went to play Michigan in the NIT Tournament, and we had our NIT Game of the Year on Michigan, which won 90-80.  Here, we have another MAC Conference vs. Big 10 Conference match-up.  As I highlighted three days ago in our Michigan/Toledo write-up, the MAC has not performed well vs. the Big 10, as it's 114-148 ATS, including 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 20-41 ATS its last 61) when priced from -2 to +8 points.  Indiana, in particular, has done great against MAC teams, with a 26-1 SU and 19-8 ATS record.  Kent St, meanwhile, is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS vs. Big 10 foes.  Finally, one of my favorite systems, which is 59-25 ATS applies to Indiana, while a negative 113-224 ATS system goes against Kent St.  We'll lay the points with the Hoosiers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Montana St.  The Wildcats lost their last two games to end their season.  But they were underdogs in each game.  K-State is favored by a healthy margin tonight, and it's 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season, including 7-0 ATS its last seven.  Even better:  off back to back ATS losses, the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS their last nine.  Meanwhile, the Bobcats are a poor 2-9 ATS as a dog of 2+ points off back to back conference wins.  And they're 13-27 ATS off back to back wins when matched up against a foe off back to back losses.  Lay the points with Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Tigers smashed #1-ranked Houston in the AAC Tourney, 75-65, as a 5.5-point dog.  They'll now take on a 31-3 Owls squad which ran roughshod through a comparatively-week Conference USA.  We'll take Memphis, as the Tigers are 54-17-5 ATS vs. .555 (or better) Conference USA foes when not favored by more than 5 points.  And the Tigers are also 40-17-2 ATS off an upset win, including 9-0-1 ATS when not favored by more the 5 points.  Take the Tigers.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Grand Canyon/Gonzaga game.  After playing eight straight "OVERS" to end its regular season, the Bulldogs went UNDER the total in their two West Coast Conference tournament games.  And they've also gone UNDER in 10 of 13 NCAA Tournament games when the OU line was greater than 148.  We'll look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight, as the UNDER falls into 32-11 and 66-44 Totals systems of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Creighton.  The Wolfpack were blown out by Clemson, 80-54, in the ACC Tourney.  Off that loss, we'll back The Pack, as NC State is 7-1-1 ATS off a loss this season.  And .720 (or worse) ACC Conference teams are 95-53 ATS as underdogs off a 25-point loss, when playing a winning foe.  Take the Wolfpack.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the St. Mary's Gaels minus the points over VCU.  The Gaels lost, 77-51, to their nemesis, Gonzaga, in last week's West Coast Conference title game.  But off that loss, we'll take Randy Bennett's men to bounce back in a big way on Friday afternoon.  The Gaels are an awesome 12-1 ATS off a loss the past two seasons.  And, dating back 15 seasons, St Mary's is 44-20 ATS in non-conference games off a point spread defeat.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara.  The Bears lost back-to-back games to Iowa State to end its Big 12 Conference season.  The good news for the Bears is that they're 51-18 ATS off back to back losses when facing a .555 (or better) opponent.  Additionally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 64% in the NCAA Tournament off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Finally, Big West Conference underdogs of more than 4 points are a soft 16-31 ATS in the post-season vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:40 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers minus the points over Kennesaw St.  The Owls were seeded #1 in the Atlantic Sun Tournament, and defeated Queens U., Lipscomb, and Liberty en route to the conference championship.  But all three games were played in Kennesaw's home arena.  And its home court advantage was a big reason why it won its tournament, as it won two of those three games by a single point, each.  I am not a fan of playing on such teams -- that win their conference tournament on their home court -- here in the NCAA Tournament.  It's a different story altogether when you're playing on a neutral court.  The Musketeers have excelled in post-season, neutral court games vs. non-conference foes, as they're 31-14-4 ATS.  Lay the points with Xavier.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over Penn State.  Penn State was 4-0 ATS in the Big 10 Tournament, but fell to Purdue in the title game, 67-65, as a 7.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, the Aggies were blown out by the SEC's #1 team, Alabama, 82-63, on Sunday.  But off that loss, we'll take Texas A&M to bounce back tonight.  The Aggies are 61-34 ATS away from home off a loss, including 27-7 ATS as a favorite.  And .625 (or better) Big 10 Underdogs, on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have gone 11-28 ATS in non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns 17-9-2 ATS their last 27 as a favorite, but are 1-8 ATS their last nine as an underdog, including 0-6 ATS their last six.  That doesn't inspire confidence in them tonight against a Tennessee team looking to bounce back from an upset loss to Missouri.  The Vols are 20-10 ATS off an away upset loss, and 36-18 ATS in non-conference games off an 8-point (or worse) defeat.  Meanwhile, the Sun Belt Conference has been horrible vs. the SEC Conference when playing at home, or on neutral courts, as the Sun Belt teams have gone 17-40-3 ATS.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  Brooklyn was blown out, 153-121, when these two teams met earlier this season, in California.  And that was the 2nd most points the Nets have given up in a game over the past 33 seasons.  We'll take Brooklyn to avenge that loss, as NBA teams have gone 19-6 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss in which they surrendered 150+ points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a favorite.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide come into this game off an 82-63 win in the SEC Conference Championship game.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade Nate Oats men this afternoon.  Indeed, Alabama is an awful 13-49-1 ATS when favored by more than 10 points after scoring 75+ points in winning its previous game.  Take Corpus Christi.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Howard.  Kansas will look to rebound off its 76-56 loss to Texas in the Big 12 Tourney.  The Jayhawks tend to get off to a good start in this tournament, as they're 19-11 ATS in the opening round, including 16-6 when not favored by 23.5 (or more) points.  And they also do well off blowout losses, as they're 27-3-1 ATS following a defeat by 12+ points.  Take the Jayhawks.

At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Missouri.  The Tigers have been installed as a small underdog this afternoon.  Unfortuately, Missouri is an awful 37-75 ATS as an underdog (or PK) away from home, if its W/L percentage was between .500 and .875.  That doesn't bode well for Missouri, here.  Nor does the fact that Utah State is 47-23 ATS as a favorite, including 7-0 ATS its last seven.  Lay the points.

At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Virginia/Furman game.  Something's gotta give this afternoon, as the Paladins prefer an up-tempo game, and average 82 ppg, while Virginia likes things slower-paced, and gives up just 60.2 ppg.  I expect the Cavaliers to exert their will, as they've gone UNDER the total 35-18 when facing a team which scores 80.75 ppg.  And they've also gone UNDER 42-24 when their opponent's games averaged 148+ points.  Meanwhile, the Paladins have gone 12-2 UNDER when playing a team which gives up less than 67 ppg.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Cal Irvine.  This will be the 2nd meeting between these two teams this season.  In Round 1, Irvine came into Eugene and stunned the Ducks, 69-56, as a 15.5-point road underdog.  The point spread is significantly lower tonight, and we'll lay the points with the homestanding Ducks as they're 8-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge in the post-season, when priced from +1 to -11 points.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Sam Houston St/Santa Clara game.  The Bearkats come into tonight's game off a 78-75 loss to Grand Canyon, which went over the total by 26.5 points.  But prior to that high-scoring game, the Bearkats went UNDER in seven straight.  Tonight, they've been installed as a home underdog for the first time all season.  But they were home dogs 6 times in the previous two seasons, and went under in each of those 6 games.  Take the UNDER.