Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee.  The Raptors fell by eight points in Game 1, as a 6.5-point underdog.  And the worst part of the game for Toronto backers was that they covered the point spread for all but the final 29 seconds of the game.  Tonight, we'll grab the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co., as I look for Toronto to even up the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, .663 (or better) teams off exactly one loss, and down exactly one game in a Playoff series, have cashed 66.3% when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Raptors are 5-0 ATS on the road this season after a loss by more than six points, and #1-seeded teams (like Milwaukee) are a poor 40% ATS in a Playoff series as a home favorite when up 1-game-to-none.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Blazers were routed by 22 points in Game 1, 116-94, but I love them to bounce back in Oakland tonight.  Indeed, road teams off a loss by more than 21 points have cashed 92% in the semi-finals and finals of the NBA Playoffs since 1991, when priced from +2.5 to +7.5 points.  Even better:  the Trail Blazers are an awesome 11-1 ATS the past two years when playing with revenge from a double-digit road loss.  Finally, the Warriors are a wallet-busting 10-26-1 ATS in games with single-digit point spreads, if the Warriors were off 3+ wins.  Grab the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia, as Toronto falls into 49-23, 47-7, 50-10, 30-2, 107-64, 65-18, 158-87, 44-12, 37-6 and 100-43 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 49-23 ATS system.  Here, what we want to do is play against #3-seeded teams (like Philadelphia) off an upset win, if that #3 seed was not favored by more than 5 points in the current game.  Of course, there's nothing wrong with 49-23 ATS.  But we can improve our angle to a virtually-perfect 93%, 14-1 ATS if we limit our games to those that involved #3 seeds with a win percentage of .628 (or less).  The Raptors will also have the benefit of playing this Game 7 in front of their home faithful.  And that's been a significant advantage for home teams in Game 7 since the dawn of the NBA Playoffs, as they're 105-28 straight-up since 1947.  The numbers also are just as impressive in more recent times.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, home teams are 56-17 straight-up, and 41-30-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland.  The first four games of this series were relatively close, and were decided by an average of 5.5 points per game.  But the last two games were both blowouts.  Denver won here, at home, in Game 5 by 26 points, while Portland won Game 6 at home by 11 points.  I expect another blowout win by the home team in this Game 7.  Indeed, .667 (or worse) road underdogs of +4 (or more) points, off a double-digit win, have cashed just 21.8% in tied NBA quarterfinals series.  That doesn't bode well for Portland this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Denver's been extremely strong at home this season (39-9 straight-up, 29-19 ATS), including 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS when not favored by more than six points.  Or that Portland's road point spread record in the post-season is the 2nd-worst in the NBA (Atlanta's 24-51 ATS record is the worst).  Since 1991, the the Trail Blazers are a wallet-busting 18-67 SU and 29-52-4 ATS, including 10-28-3 ATS off a win.  Yikes!  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Golden State Game.  These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 5, and it easily went 'under' the 221 Total.  I look for another very low-scoring game tonight, as this series has gone 'under' the total much more often than not.  Indeed, in the last 50 meetings, the 'under' has cashed 66% (33-17 'under'), including 16-6 'under' in the Playoffs.  Additionally, the Rockets have now gone 'under' in 23 of their last 32 Playoff games when they were not leading in the series, including 6-0 'under' when they were favored by more than 5 points.  And since Steve Kerr became head coach, the Warriors have gone 'under' the total in 18 of 23 games where they were priced as an underdog of +2.5 to +8 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Trail Blazers are down 3-games-to-2, and have failed to cover the point spread in each of the last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Blazers tonight, especially because they lost by 26 points in Game 5.  However, home favorites have covered 70.5% over the last 29 seasons in Game 6 or 7 of a Playoff series, if they were off three straight ATS defeats.  That bodes very well for Portland tonight.  As does the fact that the Nuggets are an awful 16% ATS since 1991 in the Playoffs off back to back wins, if they are up in their Playoff series by exactly one game.  Finally, #3-seeded teams, off a SU/ATS Playoff defeat, and down by exactly one game in the series, are a solid 55-35-4 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS at home.  Take Portland to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks won their 3rd straight game -- 113-101 -- to take a 3-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  But off that win, we will fade Mike Budenholzer's team tonight.  Indeed, the Bucks are a horrid 19-50-2 ATS at home off 3+ wins when playing a rested opponent.  Even worse, since 1991, NBA underdogs of more than six points have cashed 73% off back-to-back home playoff defeats by 6+ points.  This game will go down to the wire.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston.  The Warriors lost in overtime, 126-121, in Game 3.  But they still are in a commanding 2-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  And that bodes well for the Warriors tonight, as they're 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS when up 2-games-to-1 in a series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off a loss.  Moreover, since Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been on the Warriors, they've been spectacular as a road underdog off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Dating back to the 2011-12 season, they've gone 30-6 ATS!  The Warriors are also 38-18 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 13-5 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Celtics won Game 1, 112-90, but lost the next two games by a combined 28 points.  They're in a "must-win" situation in this Game 4, and we'll back them at home, tonight.  Indeed, home teams down 2-games-to-1, off back to back losses in Games 2 +3, have cashed 69% in Game 4 against top 2-seeded teams.  Even better:  Boston's been a beast at home in the Playoffs when not getting 4+ points.  Dating back to April 26, 2017, it's gone 16-2 SU/ATS.  And, finally, the clincher is that the Celtics are 11-0 straight-up, and 10-1 ATS in the Playoffs off back to back SU/ATS losses, if it doesn't lead in the series.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  The #2-seeded Raptors were blown out in Game 2 by the 76ers, and are now down 2-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series.  Even worse for Nick Nurse's crew:  they'll likely play this afternoon's game without their second-leading scorer (16.9 ppg), Pascal Siakam, who suffered a thigh contusion in Game 3.  The point spread for this game has been adjusted by the oddsmakers, of course, to reflect this injury.  Toronto opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but is now an underdog following the change of Siakam's playing status.  We'll grab the points with Toronto, as underdogs off an upset loss in the Playoffs have cashed 58% since 1991.  Additionally, the Raptors are 19-12 ATS their last 31 as an underdog.  And they're 22-5 SU and 18-9 ATS their last 27 vs. Philly.  Take the Raptors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Portland.  We passed on the first two game of this quarterfinals series, but will grab the points with Denver tonight.  The Nuggets lost a rare home game on Wednesday, 97-90, as a 4-point favorite.  However, Denver is 17-5 ATS off a home loss when the current game had a point spread of 4 points or less.  And road underdogs, off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs, have cashed 57% since 1991.  Finally, the Trail Blazers have covered just 24 of 69 if they were off a Playoff win, including 16 of 52 if they weren't favored by more than 5 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over Philadelphia.  The Raptors are having a great season, as they went 58-24 in the regular season (and are now 5-2 in the playoffs), and are outscoring their opponents by 6.50 points per game.  Toronto was upset at home in Game 2, so it's critical to get at least one win at Philadelphia in order to take this series back to Toronto no worse than tied at 2 games apiece.  We'll play on the Raptors in Game 3, as NBA teams, off exactly one SU/ATS playoff defeat, have covered 64% the last 29 years (and 11-2, 84% ATS the past 3+ years), if that defeat was at home, and they have a margin of victory greater than 6.35 points per game.  That bodes very well for Toronto.  As does the fact that the 76ers are an awful 4-22 straight-up, and 8-18 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two Atlantic Division rivals.  Finally, #3-seeded teams are a wallet-busting 25% ATS since 1991 when tied at 1 game apiece in the NBA Playoffs, and off an upset road win in Game 2.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Philadelphia game.  The Raptors have gone 'under' the total in six of seven Playoff games this season.  And they haven't been close.  Indeed, in the Orlando series, the first four games went 'under' by 7, 19.5, 20, and 14 points, while the 5th game did go 'over' the total, but by just 5 points.  And this series is following down a similar path, as Games 1 + 2 have gone 'under' the total by 20 and 36.5 points.  In the Magic series, the oddsmakers were slow to adjust, as the first three games had totals of 212, 212.5 and 211.  Here, in this series, the oddsmakers have adjusted a bit more, as the first three games have had lines of 223, 219.5 and (currently) 216.5 for tonight's game.  But, based on my numbers, the line should be significantly lower, still.  Philly has gone 'under' in 27 of its last 40 home Playoff games, while Toronto has gone 'under' in 14 of its last 20 road Playoff games.  Finally, the total falls into 91-55, 89-54, 99-67, 22-12, 137-91 and 33-13 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks own the best record in the NBA this season, but didn't play like it in Game 1 of this series.  The Celtics blew out Milwaukee, 112-90, to take a 1-0 lead in this quarterfinals match-up.  The entire Bucks' starting line-up shot the ball poorly, as not one player hit 50% of his shots, and the five starters combined to go 15-50, 30%.  As a team, the Bucks were 31-89, 34%.  In contrast, the Celtics' starters combined to shoot 34-64, 53%, while their full team was 47-87, 54%.  Not surprisingly, the Bucks lost by 22, which was their worst defeat this entire season.  However, there is reason for optimism.  First, Milwaukee has generally bounced back strong off poor offensive efforts this season.  Indeed, in the regular season, the Bucks had five SU/ATS losses, in which they shot less than 40%.  But following each of those SU/ATS losses, the Bucks were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, and covered the point spread by an average of 9.3 ppg.  That bodes well for Milwaukee on Tuesday night.  As does the fact that #4-seeded teams have cashed just 33% (18-36-2 ATS) since 1993 off an upset road win in the Playoffs.  Moreover, .687 (or better) teams -- like Milwaukee -- are 100% perfect, 10-0 ATS, in the Playoffs since 2006 as favorites of -5+ points, if they were off exactly one loss, and lost that previous game at home by 7+ points.  The Bucks also fall into 23-0, 62-21, 46-11, 100-50, 145-87, 94-42 and 25-1 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks earned the number 1 overall seed this NBA season -- their first with Mike Budenholzer roaming the sidelines.  And they've also been great against the point spread, as they're 51-31-4 ATS on the year.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as home teams that have covered 62+ percent of their games have cashed 71% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams have cashed 69% since 1991 in the Quarterfinals when matched up against opponents off a road win, provided they weren't favored by 12+ points.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  We played on the Spurs Thursday night, and got the $$$ with a 120-103 victory.  But that game was at the AT&T Center, where the Spurs have been dominant.  On the road, it's been a completely different story.  And the one statistic which best illustrates this (and one I've mentioned a couple of times already in this series) is that San Antonio is 1-31 straight-up, and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points. This stat dates back to the game the Spurs effectively lost their star player, Kawhi Leonard -- Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals -- when he was injured by Zaza Pachulia.  At the time of the injury, the Spurs had a real shot to win the NBA Title.  Since then, they've been a bottom-rung playoff team.  Gregg Popovich, who perhaps (if he chooses to retire) will be coaching his final game tonight, has done a masterful job to get this crew to a Game 7 vs. Denver, but it all should come to an end tonight, especially given how well home teams do, generally, in Game 7s.  Historically, home teams are 104-28 straight-up.  And, dating back to 1991, home teams are 55-17 straight-up, and 41-29-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers easily handled the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, with a 4-1 series win.  But they now have to greatly step-up in class, and have been installed as a big underdog vs. Toronto.   Unfortunately for Philly, over the last 29 years, NBA underdogs of 5+ points have covered just 25% in Game 1 of the quarter-finals, if they were on a 3-game (or better) win streak (including 0-4 ATS the last 3 years).  Even worse:  the 76ers are 3-20 straight-up, and 7-16 ATS vs. Toronto in the last 23 meetings, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors surrendered 129 points to the Clippers in Game 5, and that won't sit well with coach Steve Kerr.  Indeed, it was the 4th-worst defensive effort by his team in 88 Playoff since he's become head coach.  But after giving up 115+ points in a playoff game under Kerr, the Warriors have generally rebounded with a much better defensive effort, as they've gone 'under' the total 64% of the time.  And that dovetails with the Warriors' results, generally, off a loss since Kerr became coach, as they're 63-44 'under' the total after losing their previous game.  Moreover, dating back to 1993, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 79% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset home loss in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Warriors were upset at home for the 2nd time in this series when they lost 129-121 in Game 5, as a 14-point favorite.  But, as we saw in Game 3 following Game 2's upset loss, the Warriors are often at their best following a very bad game.  Golden State won that Game 3 by a 132-105 score, and easily covered the number.  I expect a similar result on this Friday night, as Golden State is an awesome 34-1 straight-up and 27-8 ATS as a favorite of -6 or more points off a loss if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  San Antonio was blown out in Game 5.  But that shouldn't have surprised anyone, as San Antonio is now 1-31 straight-up and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points.  Now, the Spurs return home.  And San Antonio is 23-3 straight-up and 22-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  The Spurs have also won 14 of 15 home games vs. the Nuggets.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets to go 'under' the total.  San Antonio is in a 'must-win' situation tonight, as it is down 3-games-to-2.  And one of the things I love to do is play on the 'under' in "elimination" games, if the team in the 'must-win' position is favored, and off a double-digit loss.  Since 1991, such teams have gone 'under' the total 59.3% of the time.  The 'under' also falls into 73-51 and 84-43 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah.  The Rockets were up 3 games to none, but took their foot off the gas in Game 4, and were upset by the Jazz, 107-91.  Part of the problem for the Rockets on Monday was that center Clint Capela was still struggling with a viral infection, which has severely limited his production in this series.  But with 48 hours of rest, coach Mike D'Antoni is optimistic that Capela will be back to his normal, dominant self tonight.  Houston has dominated Utah in this price range, as Houston is 14-2 straight-up and 12-4 ATS when priced from -3 to -9 vs. the Jazz.  Even better for the Rockets:  5-point (or greater) NBA favorites, off upset road losses in the Playoffs, have covered 68% since May 2003, if they failed to cover the spread by 15+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the home club.  NBA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Orlando game.  We played on the 'under' in Game 2, and it easily sailed under the closing 211 number, as Toronto won, 98-93.  The number is a bit lower today, but the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the rightful number.  Indeed, the three games in this Playoff series have gone 'under' all three times, by 7.5, 19.5 and 20 points.  And if we go back to the regular season, six of the seven meetings this season have gone 'under' (as have 14 of the last 19 meetings).  The Magic are 39-19 'under' off a straight-up loss, including 14-0 'under' their last 14 when priced from +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  The Jazz lost by a combined 52 points in Games 1 + 2 of this series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Utah, especially since it's been installed as a favorite in Game 3.  But NBA favorites have actually cashed 62.8% in the NBA Playoffs after losing each of the first two games of a series by double-digits.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Detroit finds itself in an 0-2 hole as this series shifts to the Motor City.  I love the Pistons tonight, as underdogs of +6 or more points, in the Opening Round of the NBA Playoffs, have covered 67% of Game 3s over the last 29 seasons when they lost the first two games of the series.  Take the Pistons.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia.  The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly.  We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points.  Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland.  The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3.  We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991.  Take Oklahoma City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston.  The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads.  Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series.  The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total.  The first two games of this series went 'under' the total.  And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014).  The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991.  Take the 'under.'

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors blew a 31-point lead in Game 2, and they fell to the Clippers, 135-131.  That was the 2nd-most points the Warriors have given up all season, and the reason was their defense in the 2nd half.  Golden State actually led 73-50 at halftime.  But it shockingly gave up 85 points in the 2nd half.  Coach Steve Kerr will no doubt emphasize defense for this road game at Staples Center.  And it should comfortably sail under the total, which is a very high number.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 83% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  We played on the Nuggets in Game 2, and got the $$$ when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in the 2nd half for a nine-point comeback victory.  One of the reasons  played against San Antonio was its god-awful record on the road when installed as an underdog of more than 4 points (now 1-30 straight-up since May 2017).  However, at home, the Spurs have dominated, with a 43-10 SU record (34-19 ATS).  And Gregg Popovich's men have been especially strong when playing with revenge.  Dating back to March 2018, the Spurs are 22-3 straight-up and 21-4 ATS in this role!  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston.  The 4th-seeded Rockets blew out Utah 122-90 in Game 1 behind 29 points from James Harden.  Unfortunately for Houston, NBA #4 seeds are a money-burning 0-19 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes in the first round of the Playoffs, as favorites of more than 3 points, if they were off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse for Houston:  Utah's 17-8 ATS as a road underdog off a double-digit Playoff loss, while Houston has covered just 9 of 32 games as a home favorite after a double-digit home win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Virtually everything went right for Mike Budenholzer's men in Game 1.  They sprinted out to a 38-18 lead after the first quarter, en route to a 35-point victory.  Milwaukee, of course, was aided by the fact that the Pistons' Blake Griffin was sidelined with a knee injury.  Griffin has been ruled out for the remainder of this series, as well, and his absence has been accounted for in the game 2 point spread.  We'll take the underdog in tonight's game, as teams off Playoff blowout wins by 35+ points have been atrocious (22% ATS the past 29 years) in their next game.  Take the Pistons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs did something very much out of character in Game 1:  they pulled a big upset on the road, as a 5.5-point underdog.  Indeed, the Spurs road win percentage this season is .404.  And over the last two seasons, going into this series, they were 0-27 straight up, and 7-19-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than four points!  Unfortunately for the Spurs, they're likely to revert to form tonight.  And that's because, since April 28, 1991, NBA road teams, with a road win percentage less than .405, have covered just 33% in the Playoffs following an upset road win.  Take Denver to slaughter San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Orlando.  The Raptors lost at home in Game 1, 104-101, to the Magic.  And they were favored by 9.5 points in that game.  The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that favorites of more than 9 points, off a game where they lost outright, and also failed to cover the spread by more than 9 points, are 30-0 straight-up, and 22-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Toronto to blow out Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors routed L.A. in Game 1, 121-104.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade the defending Champs on this Monday.  Indeed, double-digit home favorites off SU/ATS home playoff wins by 10+ points have covered just 36% since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for Golden State tonight.  And neither does the fact that the Clippers are 45-37-1 ATS this season, compared to just 36-46-1 ATS for Golden State.  The Clippers are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 road games when playing with revenge.  And #1 seeds (like the Warriors) are an awful 48-73-6 ATS as a favorite after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Sixers were stunned, 111-102, in Game 1 of this series, here at home.  But I love Philly to bounce back today, as home favorites of -7+ points, off a straight-up loss in the Playoffs (and ATS loss) by 7+ points each, have cashed 62.3% in conference games since 1991!  Moreover, the Sixers are 43-29 ATS their last 72 at home, including 18-8 ATS off an ATS defeat by more than four points.  Take Philadelphia to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder swept the season series, 4-0, from Portland this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Portland because of that fact.  However, road teams (like Oklahoma City) have gone 0-8 SU/ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of a Playoff series if they weren't getting 10+ points, and they swept the regular season series!  That doesn't bode well for the Thunder.  Even worse:  Oklahoma City is a horrid 1-13 straight-up and 2-12 ATS on the road in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 0-8 SU/ATS in the first two rounds.  Finally, Portland falls into a super 120-62 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs have certainly been a great Playoff team over the years.  But they've really struggled as underdogs of +5 (or more) points when matched up against a top 2-seeded opponent.  Since 2001, they've gone just 3-21 straight-up and 7-17 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if the Spurs were not off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for San Antonio on Saturday night.  And neither does the fact that San Antonio is an awful 0-4 straight-up the past two seasons at Denver, with its average margin of defeat being 10.5 points.  The Nuggets have not held home court advantage in a Playoff series very often.  Indeed, over the last 28 years, they've only been in that position in four series.  But in those four series, they won that first (home) game all four times, and by an average of 14.5 points per game.  When these two teams last met (just 10 days ago), the Spurs were destroyed by Denver, 113-85.  And teams playing with revenge from a loss in the regular season by 15+ points have covered just 42 of 106 Playoff games.  The biggest problem for San Antonio in this series will be the Nuggets' All-Star center, Nikola Jokic.  In the last three games played between these two teams, Jokic has gone 10-14, 10-14 and 9-10 from the field, and also pulled down 10 rebounds per game.  Jokic will prove to be too much for the Spurs to handle.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz won their final home game of the season yesterday when the defeated Denver.  Meanwhile, the Clippers had the last 2 nights off following their 27-point loss at Golden State, so they'll be very well rested for this game.  Los Angeles needs to win, and also have either San Antonio or Oklahoma City lose, in order to avoid the 8th seed.  Unfortunately, both the Spurs and Thunder are favored to win their games tonight (both early starts), so the Clippers could very well have their fate sealed by the time this late night game begins.  Regardless, I expect a strong effort, as they'll enter tonight's play on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will no doubt want to get back into the win column prior to the start of the Playoffs.  Los Angeles is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven (and 13-3 ATS its last 16) games off a road defeat.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami.  The Heat had an emotional game last night, at home, when they defeated Philly, 122-99, in Dwyane Wade's final home game.  Tonight, they have to take on the Playoff-bound Nets, who come into this season finale off back to back upset wins over Milwaukee and Indiana.  Since 1990, home teams have cashed 71% in their final game of the season, if they were off back to back upset wins.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors come into this final game of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up.  So, this game will hold little meaning to Steve Kerr's crew.  Not surprisingly, since 1990, #1-seeded Playoff teams have covered just 35.7% of their final games of the regular season, if they were on the road.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas.  This game is critical for the Spurs.  If they win, they'll avoid the Warriors in the 1st round of the Playoffs.  San Antonio also will play this game with a big advantage in terms of their days of rest.  The Spurs have had the last two days off, while Dallas had to play last night.  San Antonio is 96-58 ATS its last 154 vs. unrested foes.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over Orlando.  The Hornets will likely miss the Playoffs, as they need to defeat Orlando and also need the NY Knicks to upset Detroit in order to qualify for the post-season.  But anything's possible, so Charlotte will certainly put forth its best effort tonight.  The Hornets didn't put forth their best effort when these two teams last met on Valentine's Day.  The Magic won that game, 127-89.  But Charlotte had won the previous 13 games in this series (11-2 ATS) and I look for them to avenge that 38-point loss tonight.  Indeed, underdogs off a SU/ATS win (like Orlando), which defeated their opponent by 30+ points in the previous meeting, are a soft 28-53-1 ATS since 1990.  Take Charlotte.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Indiana.  The Pacers have dropped nine of their last 12 games, and are locked into the #5 slot in the Eastern Conference.  With nothing to play for, we'll fade them on the road tonight at Atlanta, as the Hawks are still playing hard (even though they also have nothing to play for).  Atlanta's covered 17 of its last 23 games, including 9-3 ATS off a straight-up loss.  In contrast, the Pacers are 8-13 ATS their last 21.  Finally, Indiana falls into a negative 86-127-4 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain road teams late in the season, as well as a negative 163-215-8 ATS system which fades certain teams that won the season's first three meetings.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Phoenix.  We played against the Suns on Sunday, as we had our NBA Game of the Month on Houston.  And the Rockets blew out Phoenix by 36 points.  We will go against Phoenix again, tonight, as Dallas will be playing its final home game of the season (and possibly the final home game of Dirk Nowitzki's storied career).  The Mavericks are still playing hard (they won a road game at Memphis, on Sunday), and fall into an 86-42 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine (which Houston, coincidentally, also fell into when they played Phoenix on Sunday).  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over New York.  The Knicks upset the Wizards, 113-110, in their previous game.  But New York is still just 16-64 on the season, and has only won back-to-back games three times.  I love playing against really bad teams off wins.  And I won't make an exception here, as this also is New York's final road game of the season.  And they're playing a revenge-minded Bulls team they defeated just eight days ago.  New York is a poor 2-10 ATS this season in "win situation" games, where the line is 3 points or less.  And Chicago's 9-4 ATS its last 13 "Last Home Games."  Take the Bulls minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston.  This is the final game of the season for both teams.  And the Celtics look to be mailing this game in.  Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford all will be in street clothes.  Washington plays with revenge from an 11-point defeat to the Celtics, in Boston, last month.  And Washington is 17-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Additionally, Boston falls into a negative 32-68 ATS "Late season" system of mine which fades certain teams on the road at the end of the year.  Take Washington.

At 9:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers on the money line (currently -118), to win the game straight-up vs. Texas Tech. At the start of the season, in November, I picked the Cavaliers to win the NCAA Title, at 22-1 odds. I also selected Virginia to win this tournament when the field was announced three weeks ago. So, with the Cavaliers on the doorstep of winning their first National Championship, I am certainly not going to back away now. It's absolutely true that Virginia has been fortunate to win their last two games. They needed overtime to put Purdue away in the Elite Eight, and then benefited from an Auburn shooting foul on Kyle Guy on a failed 3-point attempt. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Red Raiders, who have covered their last five games, and against a Cavaliers squad which failed to cover vs. Auburn. But Final Four teams off a point spread loss have gone 11-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points, if their opponent was off an ATS win. Even better: teams (like Texas Tech) off an upset win, have gone just 28-47 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points. And teams off 3 straight upset wins have cashed just 31.5% in the NCAA Tournament since 1994 vs. foes not off an ATS win. Finally, the Cavaliers have been spectacular the past two seasons off an ATS defeat (19-1 SU; 15-4 ATS). Take Virginia on the money line. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Orlando.  Boston played its best game in a month in its last time out, with a 20-point win at Indiana.  The Celtics have now won 3 in a row, and need to win at least one more game to wrap up home court advantage in the first round.  Tonight, they'll take on an Orlando Magic team which narrowly defeated the Celtics by two points in the last meeting.   Boston is 9-0 ATS when playing with revenge, if the Celtics covered their previous game by 7+ points.  And Boston's also 19-5-1 ATS at home off 3+ wins, including 10-0 ATS its last 10 if it covered its two previous games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Phoenix.  The Rockets are still in the hunt for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they're currently just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets.  And Houston's been taking no prisoners lately, as they're on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak.  They've won those five games by 27, 11, 25, 32 and 24 points.  Tonight, they'll take on a short-handed Phoenix club which will be without its best player, Devin Booker.  And, regardless of who has been on the court, the Suns haven't been able to defeat Houston in any of the last 10 meetings.  For the season, the Suns are giving up 116.4 ppg.  And Houston's dominated opponents that have a defensive ppg average of 116+, as it's cashed 69.5%.  Finally, this is Houston's last home game of the season, and the Rockets fall into a 52-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams in their final game in front of their home faithful.  Meanwhile, the Suns fall into a negative 22-59 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams late in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Minnesota.  The Thunder are currently in the 7th slot in the Western Conference, but need to win their two final games, or they could easily fall to the 8th seed (and have to play Golden State).  This is a revenge game for OKC, which was upset by Minnesota when the two teams met last month.  That bodes well for OKC, as the Thunder are 54-35 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  the T-Wolves come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Dallas and Miami.  But those two victories have triggered a negative 104-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upsets.  Take the Thunder.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland.  The Spurs are battling OKC and the LA Clippers for the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds out West, as none of those teams wants to finish 8th and draw the Warriors in the 1st Round.  We played on San Antonio in its last game, and were rewarded with a 129-112 blowout of the Wizards.  We'll come right back with San Antone this afternoon, as the Spurs are 73-42 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes not off an ATS defeat.  With Cleveland in off a point spread win at Golden State on Friday, we'll lay the points with the Spurs.

At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Auburn.  The 5th-seeded Tigers are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 12 straight wins, including back to back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds.  But this is the point where Cinderella generally gets her glass slipper smashed.  Indeed, in the NCAA Tournament, teams seeded #5 (or worse), and installed as an underdog of +6 or less points, are 0-7 SU/ATS in the semi-final round since 1990.  And, since 1995, underdogs off back-to-back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds are a poor 0-11 straight-up, and 2-9 ATS in the NCAA Semi-Finals.  Finally, #1-seeded ACC Conference teams have gone 14-3 straight-up and 13-4 ATS since 2000 in the NCAA Tourney's Final Four.  Virginia will blow out Auburn.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Memphis.  This is the first of two back-to-back games played by these teams (they'll meet in Memphis on Sunday).  Dallas comes into tonight's game off an upset home loss to Minnesota.  And they also play with revenge from two losses to the Grizzlies earlier this season.  We'll lay the points with Dallas, as home favorites have cashed 64.7% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge against a division rival, if our home team is also off an upset home loss.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Washington.  San Antone is locked into a tight battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 7th spot out West.  If the Spurs are to catch the Thunder (they're currently one game behind), then a win tonight is critical.  San Antonio does come into tonight's game off five straight point spread losses.  But the Spurs are 38-20 ATS as road favorites of -10 or less points off 3+ ATS defeats.  Take San Antonio.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks are one of four Eastern Conference teams battling for the last three Playoff spots.  Currently, Orlando, Miami and Brooklyn all have 40 losses, while Detroit has 39.  Thus, tonight's home game vs. Atlanta is huge for Orlando.  The Magic have been dominant at home, as they currently have won eight straight in front of the home faithful (6-2 ATS), including a 7-point win over Golden State, and a double-digit win over these Hawks.  Orlando's 20-12-1 ATS its last 33 at home, and should be fired-up tonight as it will be its final home game of the season.  The Hawks have been awful on the road when playing an opponent in its final home game (4-22 straight-up; 6-17-3 ATS).  Take Orlando.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over DePaul.  The Bulls have covered four straight heading into tonight's game at McGrath-Phillips Arena.  The first two games in this series went down to the wire.  South Florida outlasted DePaul, 63-61, on Monday at Yuengling Center, in Tampa.  Then, on Wednesday, the Blue Demons evened up the series with a 4-point overtime win, here in Chicago.  South Florida, though, covered the closing line of +4.5 (it did open at +3.5, however).  Given the closeness of this series, it's hard to turn down points with the Bulls.  After all, besides its current 4-game ATS win streak, the Bulls have gone 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Blue Demons.  Take South Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Lipscomb.  The #5-seeded Bison have been underdogs (or PK) every step of the way in this NIT Tournament.  And they've been installed as a dog, yet again, in this Championship game.  By my numbers, though, they should be getting 1.5 more points, so the value rests on the side of the Longhorns.  Even worse for Lipscomb:  underdogs have been awful in the NIT Tournament off 3 straight wins as an underdog (or PK), as they've gone 1-6 ATS in that role.  And teams seeded#5 (or worse) are 0-6-1 ATS in the NIT Final Four if they're matched up against a higher-seeded opponent (here, Texas is seeded 2nd).  Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have gone 12-3 ATS in the NIT Tournament, at the quarter-final round forward, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when not favored by 4+ points.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  This is one of the few games left on the NBA schedule where both teams will be well-motivated to win.  San Antonio is in a tight battle with Oklahoma City for the 7th seed, while Denver desperately wants to hang on to the #2 seed.  The home court has been the decisive factor in this series, as the home team has now won nine straight times, including San Antonio's 104-103 victory in the Alamo City on March 4.  The Spurs have also mightily struggled when playing revenge-minded Western Conference teams, and especially if their opponent owned a W/L percentage greater than .440.  Over the last two years, San Antonio is 5-18 straight-up and 6-17 ATS, including 0-9 SU/ATS in the regular season when getting more than 4 points.  Take Denver to blow out the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Wednesday, in Game 2 of the Best-of-3 Championship series of the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over South Florida.  These two schools have a long history against one another, as they were member schools in Conference USA together, and also member schools of the Big East Conference together.  Currently, South Florida is an American Athletic Conference member, so this series was the first time the schools had met since March 2013.  Lately, South Florida has had the upper hand, with nine straight wins (8-0-1 ATS).  But since 1996, the series has been pretty evenly played, with the Bulls holding a 13-11 record (12-11-1 ATS).  The key factor for tonight's game is that the Bulls have been dreadful in the post-season when they've had to play on an opponent's home court.  They've gone 0-8 straight-up and 1-6-1 ATS (with their only ATS win by a single point).  And, yes, it's true that South Florida is 2-0-1 ATS its last three games, while DePaul is 0-2-1 ATS in its last three.  But in post-season tournaments, home teams not off an ATS win in either of their two previous games, have covered 63.1% if they weren't favored by more than 7 points against a foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in either of its two previous games.  Take the Blue Demons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over TCU.  Both of these teams come into this NIT Semi-Final off 13-point wins.  Texas defeated Creighton, 71-58, while TCU bested Colorado, 68-55.  The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are both Big 12 Conference members, of course.  And the two teams met twice earlier this season, with TCU coming out on top in both games.  However, Texas now falls into several revenge systems of mine, with records of 35-12, 35-18 and 10-0 ATS.  Even better:  TCU is an awful 35-56-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded Conference foe, including 4-16 ATS if the Horned Frogs were off a double-digit win.  Take the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks beat the league's #1 team on Sunday, while the Spurs were stunned, 113-106, at home by Sacramento.  I love the Spurs to bounce back this evening, as NBA teams off 7-point (or worse) defeats have gone 115-77, 60% ATS, vs. foes off upset wins over .667 (or better) teams.  San Antonio has also cashed 75% since April 18, 1993 off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite.  Lay the points with the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Lakers come into tonight's game off back to back wins (and covers) over Charlotte (129-115) and New Orleans (130-102), while the Thunder suffered their biggest upset loss of the season, on Sunday, when they fell to Dallas, as a 12.5-point favorite (106-103).  OKC will once again be favored by double-digits tonight, and I expect a much different result than the last time these two teams met (the Lakers upset OKC, 138-128, on Jan. 17).  First of all, the Lakers are an awful 33-62-4 ATS in the regular season off back to back wins and covers, if their opponent was off a loss.  And, second, the Thunder are 32-15 ATS in the Regular season when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if the Thunder owned a winning record.  Lay the points with OKC.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks' injury list is extensive for tonight's game:  Nikola Mirotic (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Out), Pau Gasol (Out), Donte DiVincenzo (Out), Khris Middleton (Questionable), Tony Snell (Questionable).  They played yesterday in Atlanta (also minus Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo), and went into overtime in a 136-135 loss.  That sets up Milwaukee in a bad situation tonight, as unrested teams are 25-44 ATS after playing in a high-scoring game (262+ points) the day before.  Certainly, this is a big game for both of these teams, as each is fighting for playoff positions.  But Brooklyn's urgency is a bit greater as it sits just a half-game behind Detroit for 6th, and is in front of Miami by the same amount for the 7th spot.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, still has 3 games of breathing room between it and Toronto for the #1 spot (with just five games to play).  Brooklyn lost at home to these Bucks, 113-94, in their last meeting.  But Brooklyn is 14-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS its last 11, when playing with revenge and not getting more than 6 points.  Take the Nets.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  The Spurs earned a playoff berth last night when Sacramento lost to Houston.  And that moved the Spurs into the NBA record books as they've now made the Playoffs for 22 seasons in a row (tied with the 76ers franchise, 1950-71)!  Tonight, the Spurs will take on Sacramento.  And San Antonio will look to avenge its loss at Sacramento last month.  This is a huge game for the Spurs as they want to win each of their last six games to avoid finishing in 8th place, and drawing the Warriors in the Opening Round.  San Antonio is 48-26 ATS off a win, if it was playing with revenge against an opponent off a loss, and the Spurs weren't favored by 13+ points.  Take San Antonio to blow out the Kings.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State.  Mike Krzyzewski has owned Tom Izzo, with seven straight wins in this series.  This evening, I look for Duke to rip off its 8th straight win vs. Michigan State.  Yes, it's true that the Spartans come into this game off impressive wins over LSU (80-63) and Minnesota (70-50), while Duke has yet to cover the spread in the Tourney.  But Number 1-seeded teams have covered 68% off back to back ATS losses, if their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, Duke falls into several of my very best systems, with records of 287-191, 32-8 and 164-81 ATS.  Lay the small number with the Blue Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Purdue.  The Boilermakers upset Tennessee, in overtime, on Thursday.  Unfortunately, single-digit underdogs (or PK) off upset wins have cashed just 57 of 132 NCAA Tournament games vs. foes off a point spread loss.  And teams off overtime wins are a horrid 29% ATS since 2001, including 9-38 ATS when priced from -3 to +10 points.  Take Virginia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders are off to a 3-0 ATS start to this Tournament.  And they've won each game in blowout fashion, with wins by 15 (Northern Kentucky), 20 (Buffalo) and 19 (Michigan).  Unfortunately, NCAA Tourney teams have cashed just 18.7% over the last 29 years off three ATS wins, if they won those three games by 15+ points.  Take Gonzaga today to blow out Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Houston.  The Wildcats have rebounded off their loss to Tennessee in the SEC Conference Tournament with back to back wins (and covers) over Abilene Christian and Wofford.  On Friday, the Wildcats will take on the 33-3 Houston Cougars.  And Kentucky is at its very best in the post-season when matched up against top-level teams with a win percentage of .750 (or better), if Kentucky is not off 3+ ATS wins.  Since 1991, the Wildcats are an awesome 42-14-2 ATS, including 11-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament.  Lay the points with Kentucky.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Oregon.  The Ducks, as a 12 seed, are the lowest seed remaining in this Tourney.  They upset Wisconsin in the first round, and then caught a break by getting to play 13-seed Cal Irvine last Sunday.  Oregon was favored by 4.5 in that game, and won, 73-54.  Unfortunately, Oregon won't be catching a break in the Sweet 16, as they'll have to play the 2nd best team in the Tournament.  And teams seeded #11 (or worse), that won as a favorite in Round 2, are a horrid 0-13 straight up and 3-9-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round.  Admittedly, the Ducks are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 10 straight wins and covers.  But that's never been a positive indicator in this NCAA Tournament, as teams off 9+ ATS wins have covered just 22% over the past 26 years.  Take Virginia.  NCAA High Roller Winner!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Florida State.  Number 1 seeds have dominated, lately, in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 Round.  Over the last four seasons, they've gone 12-0 straight-up, and 10-1-1 ATS.  And, dating back to 1990, #1 seeds, priced from -6 to -10 points, are 37-4 straight-up and 27-13-1 ATS in the Sweet 16.  This is also a huge revenge game for Gonzaga, which lost in last season's Sweet 16 Round to these same Seminoles.  Last season, the Bulldogs were a #4 seed, but they were still favored by 6 over the 9th-seeded Seminoles, who pulled off the upset, 75-60.  However, in the post-season, over the last 18 years, teams playing with revenge from an upset Tourney loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 7 points, have gone 12-0 straight-up and 10-0-2 ATS (including 6 outright upset wins)!   Take Gonzaga to blow out the Seminoles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Colorado, in the quarterfinals of the NIT Tournament.  The Buffaloes won and covered their first two games in this NIT Tournament.  But both of those were played in Boulder.  This game will be in Austin, Texas.  And Colorado is a horrid 9-27 straight-up and 8-27-1 ATS in its last 36 lined road games, including 2-18 ATS when the Buffaloes owned a W/L percentage greater than .600.  Even worse:  the Buffs are 9-24 ATS off back to back ATS wins, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Meanwhile, the Big 12 Conference has been strong (8-1 ATS their last nine) in the NIT Tournament, at the quarterfinal round forward.  Take Texas to blow out the Buffaloes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Indiana.  These two teams met 13 days ago in Indianapolis, and the Pacers came away with a 2-point victory, as a 1-point home favorite.  That game kick-started a 1-5 SU/ATS stretch for the Thunder, which reached its lowest point this past Monday when they lost to the woeful Grizzlies, 115-103.  OKC is now in 7th place in the Western Conference.  But I love OKC to bounce back on this Wednesday.  Indiana hasn't been able to beat quality teams on the road this season.  Since December 19, the Pacers are 0-10 straight up and 2-8 ATS on the road vs. foes with a win percentage of .481 (or better).  And OKC is 43-21-2 ATS in the regular season when playing with same-season revenge vs. Eastern Conference foes that won their previous game.  Take the Thunder.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Wichita State.  The Shockers will attempt to become the first NIT Tournament team (in the Tourney's 82-year history) to knock off its Region's Top 3 Seeds.  Wichita has already won blowouts at Furman (76-70) and at Clemson (63-55).  Unfortunately for the Shockers, NIT Tourney teams are a soft 34-54 ATS away from home after covering the point spread by 6+ points in each of their previous two games.  Take Indiana to blow out Wichita.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  The key factor in this game is WVU's home court.  The Mountaineers have been solid over the years in the post-season, when playing at home.  Since 1990, they've cashed 64%, including a perfect 3-0 ATS when laying 9+ points.  Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has been awful in the post-season when playing away from home (8-27 straight-up; 5-10 ATS (with 20 non-lined games).  And when the point spread on the game was in the single-digits (i.e., below 10), then the Chanticleers were 1-7 ATS.  West Virginia blew out Grand Canyon, 77-63, here, at home, in its first round game.  In contrast, Coastal Carolina struggled, somewhat, at home vs. Howard, and failed to cover the 11-point spread in an 81-72 win.  WVU is 48-20-1 ATS at home off a home win, including 19-3 ATS if its opponent failed to cover the point spread in its previous game.  Take the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bulls won the Mid-American Conference this season, and are 30-3 on the year.  But Mid-American Conference teams are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 2-9 ATS as underdogs of +3.5 (or more) points off an NCAA Tournament win.  And MAC Conference teams are also 1-23 straight-up and 5-17-2 ATS vs. Big 12 foes with a win percentage of .800 (or better), including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  We played on the Red Raiders in their Friday victory over Northern Kentucky.  Texas Tech won that game, 72-57, as a 13-point favorite.  And the Red Raiders are now 10-1 straight-up and 9-2 ATS their last 11 games.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Chicago.  The Jazz went into Atlanta on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak, but left with their tail between their legs after the Hawks upset them, 117-114, as a 7.5 point underdog.  I look for Quin Snyder's men to bounce back on this Saturday, as they're 19-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Meanwhile, Chicago's an awful 2-10 ATS at home off a win.  Lay the points with Utah.  NBA GAME OF THE WEEK!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Arkansas.  The Razorbacks defeated the Hoosiers by a point earlier this season.  But that game was played in Fayetteville.  On the road, Arkansas has consistently burned money for bettors over the years.  Indeed, the Razorbacks are a miserable 16-33 on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Lay the points with Indiana.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, on Friday afternoon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Cal Irvine.  The Wildcats were seeded #1 in their Big 12 Conference tourney, but were bounced out by the Iowa State Cyclones.  They're now seeded 4th in this NCAA Tournament against a 13th-seeded Anteaters squad, which has won 16 straight games.  We'll lay the points with the Wildcats, as NCAA Tourney teams, seeded #4 or #3, that lost as a top 2-seeded team in either the quarter-finals or semi-finals of their conference tourney, have cashed 63.2% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, Kansas State falls into my favorite Tourney system which is 155-58 ATS since 1990.  Finally, Big West Conference teams are a horrid 23-52 ATS vs. Big 12 member schools, including 6-25 ATS when priced from -3 to +13 points.  Take Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Phoenix.  The Pistons come into tonight's game vs. the Suns off a road loss, at Cleveland.  But I love Detroit to rebound off that defeat, and blow out the Suns tonight.  Detroit already pounded Phoenix earlier this season, 118-107.  And that was Detroit's fourth straight double-digit win vs. the Suns (by an average of 22.25 ppg).  Even more impressive is the fact that the Pistons are a super 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings vs. the Suns.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Syracuse.  Baylor enters this Tournament ice cold, with four straight losses.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Baylor.  But teams off 4+ losses have actually cashed 65.3% over the last 29 years in the post-season (non-conference) tournaments, if they were at home, or on a neutral court.  Moreover, Baylor is a spectacular 57-25-4 ATS off back to back defeats, including 7-0 ATS when priced from PK to +2.5.  And, finally, the Big 12 Conference has dominated the ACC Conference lately, with a 25-7 SU and 23-9 ATS record over the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 11-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4.5 to +3.5 points.  Take Baylor.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson.  The Bulldogs were upset by rival St. Mary's to end their West Coast Conference season.  Gonzaga, though, is an awesome 24-2 SU and 16-9 ATS off a loss.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams are a solid 60% in the post-season off an upset loss, if they're playing the 2nd of back to back games away from home.  Take the Zags minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, in the COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers minus the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Buccaneers had covered nine straight games prior to losing to Radford in the semifinals of the Big South Conference tourney.  We'll take the Bucs to bounce back at home tonight vs. the Owls, as the Owls have covered just two of their last 11 post-season games.  Finally, Charleston Southern falls into a 69-27 ATS Tourney system of mine which plays on certain home teams in Conference tourneys.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles minus the points over Murray State.  The Racers upset Belmont in the Championship game of the Ohio Valley Tournament, and are 27-4 this season.  Meanwhile, Marquette was upset by Seton Hall to end its Big East season, and finished with a 24-9 overall record.  Over the last 29 seasons, teams off upset defeats have covered 64.3% vs. .750 (or better) foes off upset wins.  Take Marquette.

At 3:10 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Belmont.  The Bruins have been a great offensive team this season, as they average 87.2 ppg.  But I believe they'll find it a tad difficult to score against this Maryland club, which gives up just 65.1 ppg.  Even worse:  In the NCAA Tourney, teams seeded #3 (or worse), that average 86+ points per game, are an awful 0-16 ATS as underdogs of less than 12 points (or PK).  Take Maryland.

At 12:40 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Yale.  Yale comes into this game off three straight wins -- over Princeton (twice) and Harvard in the Ivy League title game.  But all three of those games were played on Yale's home court.  And, dating back to 1990, teams that had the benefit of winning their conference tournament on their home court have burned $$$ in their first NCAA tourney game.  Even worse for Yale:  it's a woeful 2-13 ATS as an underdog priced from +4 to +9 points.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the California Baptist Lancers + the points over Loyola Marymount.  The Lions have been an historically poor traveler, as they've covered just 65 of 155 road games.  That doesn't bode well for them tonight, as a small road favorite.  Even worse:  West Coast Conference teams (like Loyola) are a horrid 0-9 SU/ATS their last nine on the road in the post-season.  Finally, Loyola was upset by Pepperdine, as a 4.5-point favorite in the West Coast Conference tourney.  And road favorites have cashed just 34.3% over the past 29 years in the post-season tournaments off an upset defeat.  Take California Baptist.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Chicago.  The Wizards are mathematically still alive for a Playoff spot, but just barely.  They come into tonight's game off a 21-point loss to Utah, and trail 8th-seeded Miami by 4.5 games with just 11 to play.  That makes tonight's game against the 20-52 Bulls ultra-important.  I fully expect the Wizards to rebound off that blowout loss, as they had covered seven of eight going into that game.  And there's no shame in losing to the Jazz right now, as Utah's won its last four games by 17, 20, 16 and 21 points.  Meanwhile, Chicago is coming off an upset win at Phoenix.  We had a play on Chicago that night, but will go against the Bulls today.  One of my stocks-in-trade is to go against certain bad teams off wins.  The Bulls certainly fit the bill tonight, as they fall into several of my best negative systems, with records of 63-121, 202-317 and 138-233 ATS.  Throw in the fact that Chicago is a miserable 5-14 ATS at home this season vs. other losing teams, and we'll pull the trigger on the Wizards.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over Central Michigan. The Blue Demons lost to St Johns, 82-74, to end their Big East season.  That game, however, was played in St. John's home town of New York City.  Tonight's game will be back in Chicago, where the Demons are 12-6 this season.  We'll lay the points, as Mid-American Conference teams are an awful 30-57 ATS as non-conference underdogs away from home, priced from +3 to +5.5 points, including 5-26 ATS their last 31, and 4-16 ATS in the Tournaments.  Additionally, DePaul's cashed 67% as a home favorite in the post-season off a SU loss.  And it also falls into one of my favorite systems, which is 135-55 ATS since 1990.  Take DePaul.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Longwood Lancers + the points over Southern Mississippi.  Over the last 29 years, there have been 101 home underdogs in the post-season (non-conference) tourneys, and the Lancers are the only double-digit home underdog among them.  Over the last five seasons, home dogs in these tournaments have cashed 63.8%, and we'll grab the points with Longwood tonight.  The Lancers fall into 67-27 and 17-0 ATS tourney systems of mine.  Meanwhile, Southern Miss is a poor 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS on the road in the post-season, including 0-5 ATS off a straight-up loss.  Take Longwood.

At 9:10 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Temple.  Belmont falls into an NCAA Tourney systems, which is 62-30 ATS.  That angle plays on certain teams off a double-digit loss (Belmont fell to Murray State, 77-65, to end its season).  But before that defeat, Belmont had won its previous 14 games (10-2-2 ATS)!  I won't step in front of Belmont tonight, given the short price, as .833 (or better) NCAA Tourney teams have cashed 69 percent as favorites of -8 or less points, if they were off a loss to end their season.  Take the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Cal State Northridge Matadors + the points over Utah Valley.  The Matadors are double-digit underdogs this evening, and it's hard to turn down that many points with a team which was 16-4-1 ATS as an underdog/PK this season (and 20-7-2 ATS, overall).  Northridge also falls into a 100% Perfect, 16-0 ATS Tourney system of mine.  Take the points with the Matadors.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over South Dakota State.  Texas ended its season with losses in five of its last six games.  One problem for the Longhorns was that their leading scorer, Kerwin Roach II (14.7 ppg), missed five of those six games due to suspension.  But he returned for Texas' final Big 12 game of the season -- a 65-57 loss to Kansas in the quarterfinals.  The NIT Tournament committee seeded Texas #2 in its region, so it will start this tourney at home, in Austin.  And the Longhorns won 12 of their 18 home games this season.  That bodes well for Texas tonight, as home teams have cashed 78% in the post-season tourneys since 1991 if they owned a .666 (or better) home W/L percentage, and lost their three previous games SU/ATS.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, in the College Insider Tournament, our selection is on the Robert Morris Colonials over Cornell.  This game will be played in Coraopolis, PA, where Robert Morris was 12-3 SU and 8-5 ATS this season.  Cornell, meanwhile, won just six of its 17 games away from home.  And it lost its last four road games by 24, 23, 18 and 9 points.  Yet the Big Red have been installed as a road favorite.  We'll go against Cornell, as road favorites have covered just 10 of 34 games to open a post-season tournament.  Take Robert Morris.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Phoenix.  The Suns won their last game -- at New Orleans -- but are just 17-54 on the season.  And I love playing against certain bad teams off wins.  Phoenix, tonight, certainly fits the bill, as they fall into a negative 36-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain .333 (or worse) teams off a win.  The Suns are a poor 1-8 ATS at home their last nine after back to back road games.  And they're 9-21 ATS at home off a point spread win.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Golden State.  Gregg Popovich's crew is currently the hottest team in the NBA, with eight straight wins.  And they're now within shouting distance of a top 4 seed (and home court advantage) in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.  As things currently stand, San Antone is in 6th place in the West, but just a half-game ahead of the eighth-seeded Clippers, so each game has significant importance to the team.  Tonight, the Spurs will welcome the West's best team, the 47-21 Warriors, to the Alamo City.  When these two teams last met, Golden State ran the Spurs out of the gym, with a 141-102 cakewalk.  I look for the Spurs to avenge that defeat, as they're a perfect 17-0 ATS at home vs. foes with a .600 to .750 win percentage, if the Spurs were playing with revenge from a loss by more than 21 points.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Minnesota.  James Harden will likely suit up tonight, per his coach, Mike D'Antoni.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Houston in this important game.  The Rockets have lost the last two meetings to the T-Wolves but are 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with double revenge.  And they also fall into a great 67-35 ATS Revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Cincinnati.  These two teams met just seven days ago in Cincinnati, and the Cougars blew out the Bearcats, 85-69.  And Houston also won the first meeting, 65-58, at home.  That bodes well for Houston this afternoon vs. the 27-6 Bearcats, as College Basketball underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, with a win percentage greater than .700, have cashed just 35 of 97 times when playing with double-revenge.  Take the Cougars minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia St. Panthers minus the points over Texas Arlington.  The Mavericks have won and covered five straight games, heading into this Championship round match.  They've been installed as an underdog vs. the Panthers, who defeated them in each of the two regular season meetings this season (63-58; 77-71).  And it's actually the 3rd straight Tournament game in which Texas Arlington has been the underdog.  That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon, as Sun Belt Conference teams have cashed just once in 10 Title games when they were off an upset win in the Semi-Finals (and their foe was not).  Take Georgia St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.