Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Celtics -4
After blowing a double digit lead and losing to Orlando on February 7th, I expect the Celtics to bounce back strong tonight to enter the All-Star break on a positive note. Darren Collison has played well in relief of Chris Paul, but now he's up against Rajon Rondo, one of the premier point guards in the game, so I expect to see him struggle tonight. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic Division. Boston has won 4 straight over the Hornets, all by double digits, and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Furman +7.5
Furman usually always plays Wofford tough at home. In fact, it has won 8 of its last 12 home games against Wofford. The Paladins will be especially motivated tonight because they have now lost 3 straight to the Terriers, including a 3-point loss at home last season and an 11-point loss at Wofford earlier this season. But Furman is 14-4 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last 3 seasons and 11-3 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Paladins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5. We'll take the points with the home dog tonight.

3* NCAAB Line Mistake on Alabama +16
The Tide have lost 3 in a row so they should not be lacking any motivation tonight, especially since they have also lost their last 3 against Kentucky. Meanwhile, Kentucky just played as well as it could play against LSU and has Tennessee on deck so the Wildcats are in a tough spot here as far as motivation goes for this one. The Tide have been reliable of late on the road as they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 road games and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and this just goes to show you how much they have been overvalued following a victory. We'll take the points with Bama tonight.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Evansville +10.5
There is some value with Evansville in the home dog role tonight when you consider that the Purple Aces are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and the Shockers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Evansville has either won, or lost by 5 or fewer points, in 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Plus, Wichita State is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 MVC road games. Its lone ATS win during this stretch came against conference leader N. Iowa in a game where the Panthers were clearly overvalued because they were the team odds makers figured the public would be pounding. In this instance, the Shockers are the team the public is hitting hard, which is another reason why I feel we are getting pretty good value with the home dog here. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Knicks UNDER 215.5
The Kings are 7-0 Under on Tuesday nights this season and we are only seeing 196.2 points in these games. I think it no coincidence either as the Kings are just 6-17 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons while only scoring 98.1 points in these games. Tuesday is a flat night for this team, most likely because it is often times their first game of the week. The Under is also 7-1 in the Knicks' last 8 Tuesday games and 5-0 in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days rest. NY is also 10-1 Under after trailing in its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons and Sac is 11-1 Under after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. We'll take the Under here.

3* NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 194
With Andrew Bynum listed as doubtful and with Kobe Bryant clearly not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), we can't expect to see the Laker offense hitting on all cylinders tonight. Plus, these two teams always know that it is a possibility they could see each other in the postseason so these games tend to mirror the postseason in terms of defensive intensity. That's why we've seen so many low-scoring contests. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 6-0 in the Spurs' last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 road games period. Over the last 80 games between these two teams, we have seen an average combined score of just 187 points. And in the last 6 meetings in LA, we are only seeing an average of 186 combined points. We'll take the Under.

3* ESPN Big Monday *BEST BET* on Texas +2
Texas got caught looking ahead Saturday, but as a result, it will be even more motivated tonight. The Longhorns have had great success against the Jayhawks at home, having won three straight home games in the series. We also must note that the Horns have won six in a row at home against teams ranked in the top 5. After getting off to a 17-0 start and a No. 1 ranking, things have not gone as smoothly for Texas. It has a chance to redeem itself tonight, and with that in mind, I expect Texas' best effort of the entire season. Playing so quickly after Saturday's defeat is actually a good thing as that loss still burns strongly. In fact, Texas is on a 15-4 ATS run in home games when playing with one or less day's rest. Meanwhile, Kansas is on a 0-9 ATS skid after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games. Plus, the Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and the Jayhawks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. We'll take Texas and the points.

3* Under the Radar SMASH The Citadel +7.5
The Citadel has played Charleston very tough recently, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings by 9 and 14 points respectively in the underdog role. After losing to Charleston at home by 6 points earlier this season, I expect The Citadel to be especially motivated tonight. The Citadel has been one of the best underdogs in college hoops in recent seasons, as it is on a 22-5 ATS run as an underdog, a 15-4 ATS run as a road underdog or pick, and on a 17-5 ATS run in all lined road games. The Citadel enters off back-to-back wins and that is also significant as it is 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Charleston and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. We'll take the points.

3* SEC SMASH on LSU +12
We are getting pretty good value with LSU in the home dog role today as the Tigers could not be hungrier to end their 8-game losing streak. They showed that hunger in their last game when they played Tennessee to a 5-point game, and I expect them to show up again here. Expect a big game from Tasmin Mitchell, who only shot 4 of 12 against Tennessee. If he had any kind of offensive game against the Vols at all, LSU would have won. He is a good player, and I don't expect him to be outdone by the star power of Kentucky on his home floor this afternoon. The Wildcats are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. the SEC and we see a trend developing with Kentucky having lost its last 2 road games ATS. We'll take the points.

4* Major National TV Annihilator (CBS) on Michigan +1
It's been a disappointing season thus far for a Michigan team that won a game in the NCAA tournament last year. But one thing we have been able to count on is the Wolverines showing up at home where they are 9-3 on the season. Michigan should not be lacking motivation today as it looks to avenge a 6-point loss at Wisconsin and an embarrassing 15-point loss to Northwestern in its last game. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is just 2-4 in true road games this season, and we find it in a letdown spot today after a huge win over first place Michigan State. It's certainly important to note that the Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games period. Take the Wolverines.

5* NCAAB False Favorite of the Month on Clemson +1.5
With or without Demontez Stitt, who is listed as questionable for this game, and who the Tigers did not need to defeat Maryland in their last game, I expect Clemson to hand VA Tech its first home defeat of the season today. The Tigers have not played since January 31 so they should be very well prepared and ready to go. I strongly feel that VA Tech has overachieved to this point. Clemson had played the much more difficult ACC slate and that will show out on the floor today. The key to VA Tech's home success is its defense, but the Hokies allowed a struggling UNC squad to hang 70 points on them last game, and we all know how badly the Tigers crushed the Heels. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Really think the books have the wrong team favored here. Take Clemson.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Grizzlies -3
Memphis is the better team, and it should be ready to prove it after enduring back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing home loss to Houston last night. Minnesota just rattled off its third straight win last night, but it has not had much luck against the Grizzlies lately, losing all three matchups against them this season. Minnesota is just 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 95.3 to 109. Minnesota is also just 1-10 ATS versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 3 or more per game this season. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest while the Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. I'll take the better team laying a small number in a motivated spot.

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year (ESPN) on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in LA. The Under is also 6-1 in the Nuggets' last 7 road games and 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The last time these two teams met, clear back in November, we only saw 184 total points scored with the Nuggets holding the Lakers to just 79 points. The Lakers have not soon forgotten that embarrassing loss and I expect them to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight. But on top of the motivation, the star power in this matchup is banged up. The Nuggets are expected to be without Carmelo Anthony once again and Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. We'll pound the Under.

3* Friday Night NCAAB SMASH on Montana -4
Montana is a sensational home team at 10-1 on the season while Weber State has struggled to the tune of 3-6 in true road games this season. Plus, the Grizzlies will be further motivated tonight after falling to the Wildcats on the road in early January. They've had this one circled ever since and I expect them to have their revenge tonight. The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Also, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games. We'll take Montana in this highly motivated spot.

3* NBA Side of the Night on T-Wolves +10.5
First off, the Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas. Secondly, Dallas is the worst favorite in the NBA right now. The Mavericks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite, 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Minnesota comes in well rested and with great momentum having won its last 2. Plus, Dallas is banged up with Dirk Nowitzki and Erick Dampier both nursing injuries. We'll take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat +10
Cleveland is rolling right now, but Dwayne Wade and company always seems to play the Cavs tough. I know Miami just played in Boston last night, but we are getting additional value with this line because of it. Plus, the Heat will be extremely motivated to avenge a 1-point home loss to the Cavs late last month. 7 of the last 8 matchups between these two teams have been decided by 9 or fewer points. The only exception was a 10 point loss by the Heat. With this in mind, I feel very comfortable taking the points. This matchup has favored the road team and the underdog as the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Cavaliers are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

3* Under the Radar SMASH on Detroit +16
You have to like Detroit's chances catching this many points when you consider that it is a perfect s 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game this season. Plus, the Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. We'll take the points here.

5* ACC Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Duke -12.5
Duke is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and 8-3 ATS in all home lined games. The Blue Devils could not be more motivated tonight as they look to pay Georgia Tech back for an earlier season loss, and as they look to bounce back from a loss to Georgetown last game. Duke is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against the Yellow Jackets, winning these games by an average of 17.2 points. Also, plays on home teams as a favorite or pick off an upset loss by 10 points or more, against an opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Duke is also 7-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season, winning these games by an average score of 70.6 to 55.6. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and they get the call tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Kings +4
The Spurs usually get more than they bargain for in Sacramento and I expect that to be the case again tonight. Sacramento has either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points, in home games against the Spurs since November of 2007. Tony Parker is listed as doubtful, and if he indeed isn't able to go, the Kings have an even greater chance of winning this game outright. Also plays on home underdogs in a double revenge spot (2 straight losses vs. an opponent), if that opponent is coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, are on a 53-24 ATS run. The home team is on a 3-0-1 ATS run in the last 4 meetings and the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento. Take the points.

4* Major Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Blazers +7.5
I like the Blazers catching this many points at Utah tonight regardless, but especially with Carlos Boozer listed as doubtful. A big key here is that Utah has won the two prior meetings this season so the Blazers will be extremely motivated tonight. Plus, I love the fact that the Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

4* Major Early Cash Cow (Big 10 Network) on Penn State +14.5
The time to back Penn State has certainly been in the road underdog role. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS in that role in Big Ten play and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog period. The Nittany Lions are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Buckeyes are coming off a huge blowout win over Minnesota so I can't see them getting up for this game tonight. That's usually been the case for the Bucks as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take the points.

5* NBA Public Massacre of the Year on Warriors +7
The Warriors may only by 4-20 on the road this season, but they are 13-10-1 ATS in those games, and they have been downright deadly lately. In fact, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It's also hard to justify laying this many points with the Rockets when you consider that they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Rockets have struggled to defend the uptempo Warriors in recent meetings, allowing Golden State to score 107 or more points in each of the last 3 meetings while not winning by more than 4 points. Plus, I love the fact that the public is all over Houston here, reaffirming that we have the smart money side. Take the points.

3* Early NBA SMASH on Pacers +1.5
The Pacers lost in Toronto by 15 points Sunday. But when we examine that matchup more closely, we find that these two teams were actually tied with 8 minutes remaining in the game before Indy ran out of gas. The Pacers will have much energy on their home floor tonight. We also find that Pacers star Danny Granger only scored 8 points in that game, 14.4 points lower than his team-best average. Looking further into things, the Raptors are expected to be without Hedo Turkoglu tonight. While the Raptors didn't need him Sunday, he is a very important part of this team and a guy they really rely on late in games, especially on the road. Toronto has had its fair share of struggles on the road, going just 9-16 away from home so far this season. The Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now, but I expect the Pacers to be extremely motivated in this spot following a loss to Toronto in their last game. Plus, I expect Granger to perform much better at home tonight, and I expect the Raptors to miss Turkoglu. Lastly, we can't ignore the fact that the home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Pacers.

4* Major ESPN Super Tuesday *BEST BET* on Ole Miss +11
The Rebs got caught looking ahead Sunday against Arkansas, and that loss should only add to their motivation tonight. Chris Warren, who is averaging a team-high 16.7 points will be especially motivated after missing both meetings with Kentucky last season due to injury. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite, playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 93-39 ATS since 1997. Ole Miss is also 12-4 ATS in all road lined games over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Trail Blazers UNDER 189.5
Portland has gone over in 6 straight and Charlotte is 5-0-1 Over in its last 6 and this has elevated tonight's line. This matchup has typically been a low scoring one. In fact, we haven't seen a total set this high between these two teams since 2007, and that line was just 190. In the last two meetings, we have seen lines of 179.5 and 171 respectively, and we have seen total scores of just 162 and 154. Both of these teams prefer to play in the half court, and that

3* ESPN Big Monday *BEST BET* on Louisville -6
The public is all over UConn tonight and that only makes me like the Cards more. UConn is just 1-6 SU & 2-4 ATS when playing away from home this season, including 0-4 SU in true road games, and I don't think it will be able to handle the pressure of a very hungry Louisville team, that is 11-3 at home, tonight. The Cardinals are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, an amazing 43-17-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. the Big East, and even 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games. This is also the month when Pitino typically really gets his boys going as they are 12-3 ATS in February games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 10.6 points. Lay the points with Louisville at home.

3* NCAAB Sunday Night SMASH on So. Illinois +1.5
This is a sandwich game for the Wichita State. The Shockers are in a letdown spot following a big win over Illinois State, and they are in a look ahead spot with first place Northern Iowa on deck. Wichita State has lost its last 2 road games and is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. So. Illinois will be extremely motivated at home tonight after a loss to Indiana State, and the Salukis have certainly had Wichita State's number. The Salukis have won 6 straight over the Shockers overall and 11 of their last 12 at home. The Shockers are just 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings at So. Illinois. Take the Salukis.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Thunder UNDER 214
The Under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when the Warriors have visited the Thunder and I fully expect this trend to continue. The Thunder prefer to play at a slower pace, averaging just 98.7 ppg at home, and they are strong defensively, allowing only 94.7 ppg at home. In fact, OKC is even 15-5 Under in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 196.5 points scored in these spots. The Thunder enter on a 6-1 Unders run and the Warriors are 4-1 Under in their last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

5* Big Ten Game of the Month (CBS) on Minnesota +7
The Gophers have only lost by more than 7 points one time this season so they should be able to keep this one within the number here today. They already have an 11-point win over Ohio State this season and have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Buckeyes. A big key here is Minnesota's defensive pressure as it has really rattled the Buckeyes in these recent contests. In fact, Ohio State is 0-6 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 61.2 to 65.7. Plus, we couldn't picks a better day of the week to fade the Bucks as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Take Minnesota and the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Magic UNDER 193.5
Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have finished Under the number while averaging only 177.7 combined points scored. Revenge is a great defensive motivator. In fact, Atlanta is on a 25-7 Unders run when revenging a loss of 10 points, and we are only seeing 184.7 combined points in these games. The Under is also a perfect 8-0 in the Magic's last 8 games playing on 1 day's rest and 7-1-1 in the Hawks' last 9 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

4* Major NCAAB Letdown Game of the Month on Georgia +7.5
This is a huge letdown spot for S.C. after pulling off the shocking upset over Kentucky. Meanwhile, a Georgia team that has been playing well, covering the spread in 5 of 6 with an upset win over Tennessee, got a wake up call with a bad loss at Florida. That loss should have the Dawgs refocused tonight. The Dawgs will be further motivated by getting swept in the season series by the Gamecocks last season. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Dawgs.

5* C-USA Game of the Year on SMU +8
First of all Memphis isn't near the team it has been the past couple seasons, which gives us all the more reason to go against the Tigers here. Memphis will undoubtedly be looking ahead to UAB and SMU will be looking to pay the Tigers back for handing it an embarrassing 90-47 loss last season. SMU is greatly improved. It has won 3 straight heading into this contest and played UAB to a 1-point game and UTEP to a 4-point game. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 6-0 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Conference USA. Take the points.

4* Major 33-0 ATS Friday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wisconsin Green Bay +8
After getting crushed by 23 points at Butler, expect a quality Wisconsin Green Bay club to be motivated enough to give the Bulldogs a serious scare tonight. Right away, I like the fact that plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, against an opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 39-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. But, perhaps even more relevant is the fact that Green Bay is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. And furthermore, WGB is 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. And I'm not done yet; Butler is 0-7 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. And lastly, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take WGB and the points.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Blazers +6
I know the Blazers will be without Brandon Roy tonight but they have not been hopeless without him as LaMarcus Aldridge has picked up the slack. I like Portland catching these six points for a few reasons tonight. First off, the Blazers are only allowing 93.5 ppg on the road this season. Secondly, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. And thirdly, the Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'll take the points here.

3* SMASH on Memphis Grizzlies +5
The Spurs are coming off a much-needed win over Atlanta, but they'll have a difficult time getting past one of the hottest teams in the NBA tonight without Tony Parker on the floor. The Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 8 with that lone loss coming by just 2 points on the road, including a 92-86 win over the Spurs. We can't exactly bank on revenge from the Spurs either when you consider that they are just 3-13 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss over the last 2 seasons and 5-19 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Expect Memphis to take the Spurs right down to the wire.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/76ers UNDER 204.5
I expect these two teams to keep this total Under the 200 mark tonight. The Lakers are 10-2 Under after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season, with the average total score coming in at just 190.1 in these spots. After an easy win over Indiana, the Lakers will be much more concerned about being fresh for their next game against Boston than they will about hammering the 76ers. Plus, this is the Lakers 6th straight road game so I expect Phil Jackson to give his bench plenty of minutes tonight, and that bench hasn't been getting the job done over the course of the season. Philly has played to the Under in 5 straight and 8 of its last 9 games as it has been held under the century mark in 7 of its last 9 contests. The Under is also 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 home games. We'll take the Under here.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Oregon State +4
Really like Oregon State in the home dog role tonight. First off, the Beavers have been one of the best covering teams in the country at 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and they have been extremely dangerous as a dog at 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. In fact, OSU is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 62.0 to 59.7. Also, USC is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 62.9 to 63.3. We'll take the Beavers and the points tonight.

5* NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Celtics/Magic UNDER 190
This matchup has been an Unders machine with the last 6 meetings playing to the Under and 6 of the last 7 meetings in Orlando coming in Under the number. I fully expect this trend to continue this evening as these two Eastern Conference powers engage in a defensive battle. The Magic are struggling from the field, and as a result, we've seen them play to the Under in 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10. Boston has played to the Under in 4 of its last 5 as well. One thing we can usually count on is Boston bringing the "D" against top notch competition, especially now that K.G. is back. In fact, Boston is 11-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing an average of 177.8 points scored in the games. The Under is also 5-0 in the Magic's last 5 games playing on 2 day's rest, 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Under.

3* Thursday Night NBA SMASH on Knicks -3
This is a good opportunity to fade the Raptors tonight. First off, Toronto is just 8-16 on the road. Secondly, it is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after playing a game the previous night. Thirdly, the Knicks will be extremely motivated to get the "W" here after falling at home to the Raptors just 13 days ago by 8 points. The thing that goes unseen with the score is that the Raptors shot 12 of 22 from 3-point land in that game playing with 3 day's rest. The 3's shouldn't fall as easily tonight in a back-to-back. The Knicks don't find themselves laying points very often these days, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. You also have to like the fact that they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. NY is also 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lay the small number here tonight.

3* NBA Non-Conf. SMASH on Spurs -3
Expect the Spurs to dig down deep after 3 straight defeats to get the win and cover tonight. The Hawks have struggled immensely in San Antonio, going 1-11 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 meetings there. Also, the Hawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 3-15 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. It's gut check time for the Spurs and I have them answering the call.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Thunder -5.5
The Thunder are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA so I expect them to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column tonight after back-to-back defeats. In fact, OKC is 16-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season and 9-1 ATS off a road loss this season. This is also a great spot for the Thunder as they have had 3 days to rest while the Bulls are playing their 4th road game in 6 days. The Thunder are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more day's rest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It's been a good road trip for the Bulls, but expect them to fall SU & ATS tonight against the much fresher Thunder.

3* 21-0 ATS NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on George Mason -11
George Mason is rolling, having won 5 in a row, and it will be extremely motivated to take it to Delaware tonight as it remembers last season's 8-point loss at Delaware well. It is also worth noting that GM won by 23 points as a 12-point favorite at home against Delaware last season. We can't overlook the fact that GM is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in home games versus terrible teams outscored by their opponents by 8 or more points per game after 15+ games into the season, winning in these spots by an average score of 85.0 to 59.3. GM is also 7-0 ATS after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games over the last 2 seasons and Delaware is 0-7 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bucks/Mavs UNDER 198
This matchup has seen a lot of Overs in recent years, but tonight's situation looks very favorable to the Under. First off Milwaukee is 9-4 to the Under in its last 13 road games. Secondly, plays Under on any team, Milwaukee in this case, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, against an opponent that led by at least 15 points at halftime in its last game, are 15-1 over the last 3 seasons. And when the team is off a blowout win by just 20 or more points in the above situation, the Under is 103-48 since 1996. Both of these teams had ridiculous shooting percentages from the floor in their last games, better than 57%. That won't happen again tonight. Bet the Under.

5* 43-0 ATS Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +7
It's hard not to like the Bucks catching this many points in Dallas tonight when you consider that the Mavs are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. And that's not all. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. And there's more. Dallas is 0-7 ATS this season at home when facing up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game. All together, we have a 43-0 ATS Angle in our favor tonight. In addition, it is also worth mentioning that the Bucks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Dallas and the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the points tonight.

4* Major ACC Game of the Week (ESPN U) on Miami Florida +8.5
Miami has lost 3 straight, but the Canes should be well rested and well prepared tonight having not played in a week. In fact, Miami is on a 16-5 ATS run in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest, winning these games by an average score of 68.5 to 65.4. The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, it's still too early to trust Maryland laying this much chalk when you consider the Terrapins are only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take Miami and the points.

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Pacers +5.5
This is the second game of a home and home between the Pacers and the 76ers. The 76ers took the first game at Indianapolis by 10 points which tells me that Indiana will be extremely motivated to return the favor here tonight. "This is one we could've and should've won," Brandon Rush said. "We couldn't make shots when we needed." A big reason for the loss was that Indiana was exhausted, playing their fourth game in five nights. They'll be much fresher tonight. A couple things that look good for us are the Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 day's rest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. Plus, the Pacers are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia and Pacers are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings overall. The underdog is also 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. I also can't justify laying this many points on a team that is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. With all this in mind, odds makers are overvaluing the 76ers tonight. We'll take the points.

4* Major ESPN Big Monday *BEST BET* on Georgetown +6
The Hoyas haven't lost by more than 5 points this entire season with that loss coming at Villanova so I'll gladly take the points tonight, especially considering that Georgetown took Cuse to OT in the Carrier Dome last season before eventually losing by 4 points. Another thing that makes the Hoyas look so attractive catching this many points is how strong they are at the defensive end. This is a team only allowing 61.4 ppg this season, and it will make the Orange work for every one of their baskets. Syracuse plays one of the best zones in the country but Georgetown has the right recipe to defeat it. The Hoyas shoot 41.3% from the 3-point stripe on the road, and they have a versatile big man in Greg Monroe who can find the seams in the middle of the zone. Georgetown is a very balanced team on both sides of the ball and very tough. I'll take the Hoyas and the points tonight.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Lakers -4.5
Let's just say that Thursday's loss to the Cavs has lit a match under the Lakers, and now I expect them to dominate the rest of this Eastern Conference trip. The Lakers have won 4 straight over Toronto by at least 8 points, and I expect this trend to continue. A couple things that really stick out here are the Raptors are just 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Plus, the Lakers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Toronto and the favorite is 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Raptors won't have a chance if Chris Bosh doesn't go off and that is not very likely considering he has scored just 12 in each of his last two games against the Lakers and is only averaging 16.8 vs. Los Angeles in his career. We'll take the Lakers.

3* Sunday NCAAB SMASH on Penn State +13
The Nittany Lions couldn't be hungrier today after starting the Big Ten season 0-6, especially against a team that thumped them by 17 in Happy Valley back on January 3rd. Penn State may only be 2-6 on the road this season, but it is 5-3 ATS in those games. Plus, it is 2-0 ATS as a road underdog in Big Ten play this season, playing Minnesota to a 5-point game and Illinois to a 1-point game. On top of the revenge factor, the Nittany Lions will be further motivated after laying an absolute egg against Indiana last game. Wisconsin will be much more worried about its upcoming games with Purdue and Michigan State. Plus, this time around the Badgers won't have Jon Leuer, who was averaging 15.4 ppg before he was injured. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog period, and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 (line at -12.5 at many books, but take +13 if you can get it). We'll take the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Thunder +7
Condensed writeup due to amount of game to handicap. The Thunder are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and playing back-to-back has been no problem as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in the role. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Off a huge win over the Lakers Thursday, this one has letdown written all over it for Cleveland.

3* Marquee Matchup (CBS) on Texas -2.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. After enduring their first loss of the season, expect the Longhorns to bounce back strong this afternoon. While UConn is a good home team, it is just 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Texas is also 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this season while UConn is 2-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. The public is on Texas big in this spot, but I think they have just cause as this line is a little soft.

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year (CBS) on Ohio State +6.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The Buckeyes are playing very well and I expect their solid play to continue this afternoon. Ohio State has plenty of motivation to get the job done here when you consider that it was crushed by 28 points at home by WVU last season. The Buckeyes return all 5 starters from that team and they will be looking to return the favor. The Mountaineers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Buckeyes.

3* Early SMASH (ESPN) on St. John's +6
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. St. John's is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 63.6 to 63.1. The Johnnies are also an impressive 8-1 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for the Red Storm to give Nova a scare today.

3* Friday Night NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Suns -6
Tough spot for the Bulls tonight as this is their 3rd road game this week, and they have already lost their first two by 17 and 7 points respectively to lesser teams to fall to 4-15 on the road this season. The Suns are 16-4 at home this season where they are winning by nearly 10 ppg. I should also mention that the Bulls are losing by more than 9 points per game on the road. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a road winning rate of less than 40%. We'll take the Suns.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Portland State +9.5
Can't pass up a shot with this system tonight: Plays against a favorite, Weber State in this case, after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite, are 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Odds makers are begging for action on Weber State leaving this line Under 10 and they have received it. We'll go against the grain as the Vikings keep this one close.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator of the Month on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 185
When Kevin Garnett went down with an injury, the Boston Celtics lost their identity as a shutdown defensive team. Well guess who's back? Garnett returns to the lineup tonight and I expect his presence to provide the C's with a big lift no matter how much he plays. Portland has been a strong defensive team on the road, only allowing 93.2 ppg, but it hasn't been able to do much on the offensive end, scoring only 93.8 ppg. With Brandon Roy not in the lineup tonight, I expect the Blazers to struggle offensively against a Celtics squad primed and ready to dig in on the defensive end. The Blazers are really hurting on the interior with both Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla's absences leaving them paper thin. Expect Boston to really slow this game down to take advantage of scoring opportunities inside tonight. Portland is going to want to make this game a track meet and I just don't see the Celtics letting the Blazers control the tempo on their home floor. Each of these two teams have played to the Under in 3 straight and the last two head-to-head matchups have averaged only 174 points. We'll take the Under.

4* Major Pac-10 Game of the Month on Oregon State +6.5
I'll grab the points with Oregon State tonight against a Stanford team that will be without starter Andrew Zimmerman. While he doesn't put up big numbers, his size will be dearly missed on the defensive end. But even if Zimmerman was in the lineup, I would likely have to pull the trigger on Oregon State tonight catching this many points as the Beavers are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. And that's not all. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. And this one might be the clincher: OSU is 10-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points under coach Robinson, winning these games by an average score of 65.3 to 64.3. Oregon State plays a very disciplined slow paced style of basketball that teams really struggle with because they don't see it very often. We'll take the points.

3* Under the Radar SMASH on San Jose State +6.5
The Bulldogs are having a great season, but they are being overvalued because of that tonight. I'll gladly take the points with the Spartans here as Louisiana Tech is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite. You also have to like the fact that the Spartans are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spartans have certainly been at their best against top notch competition, going 8-1 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games under coach Nessman. The Spartans are 6-1 at home this season and 4-1 ATS in home lined games. Look for Nessman's experienced team with 4 returning starters to keep this one close.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Cavs -2.5
While the Lakers would like to avenge an embarrassing Christmas Day home loss to the Cavs, Cleveland isn't going to lay down here. In fact, I think Cleveland will want this game more, again! The Lakers are the defending NBA champs, not feeling as though they need to prove anything to anyone. Meanwhile, Cleveland still feels as though it has plenty to prove. Here's what Phil Jackson had to say; "We don't assign a whole lot extra importance to that game..." referring to tonight's contest. The Cavaliers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points, and with the betting public all over the Lakers, I'll go against the grain with Cleveland here.

3* NBA "Total" Bailout on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 195
The Bulls have been an Unders machine on the road at 11-6-1 to the Under this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been an Unders machine at home, going 16-6 Under. The last time these two teams met in LA we only saw 170 points put up on the board while facing a similar number (196). With that in mind, we should be seeing a lower number tonight, but the Clippers have elevated the line by playing to the Over in 5 straight. The Clippers are also 11-3 Under in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season with the average combined score totaling just 188 points in those games. Take the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Bobcats UNDER 191
This system can't be ignored tonight: Plays Under on any team, Miami in this case, after a blowout win by 30 or more points against an opponent which led in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 14-1 the last 3 seasons (already 2-0 this season). Charlotte is the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing only 92.9 ppg, and that number goes down to 91 ppg when playing at home. Both of these teams have played some high scoring games of late, but that is because they were playing teams that prefer to play uptempo basketball. These two teams prefer to play in the half court. Bet the Under.

4* Major ESPN 2 SMASH of the Week on South Florida +9.5
Cincy is just 4-8 ATS in lined games this season, including 1-3 ATS at home, and 1-4 ATS in conference play, yet the public is all over the Bearcats here. We'll go against the grain with a USF team that is a profitable 9-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS in road games. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Cincy has struggled in the chalk at 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 games as a favorite. The Bearcats are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. We'll take USF and the points here.

3* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Week (ESPN U) on Northern Iowa +3.5
I know the Wichita State is 11-0 at home, but all signs point to the Panthers here, who are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 overall. The Panthers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less points. Here's some more good stuff: the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Wichita State, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Northern Iowa is the better team. The Panthers were able to go on the road and defeat a quality Illinois State team by 15 points while the Shockers lost to that same Illinois State team on the road by 15 points. I'll take the points with the better team that has proven it can beat quality competition on the road.

3* Tuesday Night NBA SMASH on Pacers +6
Indiana has been a much better team since getting Danny Granger and Troy Murphy back on the floor together. I expect big games from those two tonight after they stunk it up against the Hornets in their last game. The Pacers will be extremely motivated tonight after enduring an 80-114 loss to Miami on December 27th. It is worth noting that Granger did not play in that game. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 or more points are 25-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Underdog is 20-6-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings. We'll take Indiana and the points in this revenge spot.

5* SEC Game of the Year (ESPN) on Alabama +2.5
Tough spot for the Vols tonight as they go out on the road for the first time this month to take on a Bama team that couldn't be hungrier after back-to-back losses. I know Tennessee has been playing hard in the wake of the loss of Tyler Smith, but it is these tough road contests where they will dearly miss his ability to create for himself and his teammates. It's also going to be extremely difficult for Tennessee to match the intensity of Alabama tonight after such an emotionally and physically draining overtime win over Ole Miss. A couple stats really stand out here. First off, Bama is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home underdog of 3 points or less, winning outright in these spots by an average score of 75.5 to 72.5. Secondly, Tennessee is on a 3-12 ATS skid when playing their 3rd game in a week. And there's more: The Volunteers are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this matchup and only 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Alabama. The Vols are also 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Tide.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Suns +2
I know the Grizzlies are playing some ball right now, but I still believe the Suns are the better team. This is the last game of a 4-game road trip for the Suns and they do not want to come away empty handed so they will be lacking no motivation tonight, especially since they were embarrassed at home by the Grizzlies earlier this month. The Suns are 42-13 their last 55 games against the Grizzlies, including 7-2 over the last 3 seasons. Plus, plays on road teams that average 103 or more points per game, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 42-8 ATS the last 3 seasons. This system is already off to a perfect 5-0 ATS start this season. We'll take the Suns in this highly motivated spot.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Magic +6.5
The Orlando Magic have fallen flat on their faces the last 2 games with disappointing performances against Denver and Portland, but now they've had 2 days to rest and prepare for the team that beat them in last year's Finals. Rest has been a very important betting angle for the Magic when playing out on the road. In fact, the Magic are 14-3 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 102.3 to 96.4. These team has also responded rather well to being embarrassed. Orlando is 16-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 101.6 to 93.5. We also have to figure in that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against the Lakers in Los Angeles and the Underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB Monday Night SMASH on UNC Wilmington +17.5
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points in non-conference games, off a win against a conference rival, are 63-30 ATS the last 5 seasons. Basically, once conference play hits teams put a lot more focus on their conference games. Fresh off a big time blowout win over Miami, and with Wake Forest up next, it's going to be extremely difficult for Virginia to get up for this one. While this is also a non-conference game for Wilmington, smaller conference schools always love the opportunity to knock off a big guy. Off 3 straight losses straight up and ATS, look for the Seahawks to be a very motivated team tonight. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. The Cavaliers are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. We'll take the points.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Nuggets -6.5
This is an extremely tough spot for a Jazz team that isn't very good on the road to begin with. Utah is just 7-11 on the road this season and will be asked to play a Nuggets team that is 17-3 at home after just playing yesterday. Plus, the Nuggets will be extremely fresh and well prepared having not played since the 13th. On top of that, the Nuggets have had Utah's number, winning each of the last matchups by at least 9 points. The Jazz are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings with Denver. Plus, the Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 3 or more days rest. Lay the points.

4* Major Big East Total of the Month on Georgetown/Nova UNDER 147.5
These two teams have played 11 straight games under this posted number and I believe they make it 12 in a row here. Villanova is a high scoring team, but now it faces a Georgetown team that prefers to play in the half court and is only allowing 57.5 ppg on the road this season. Nova has been an Overs machine this season and this line is inflated because of it against a very good defensive team in Georgetown. The Under is 22-10 in the Hoyas' last 32 road games and I look for this trend to continue.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Bobcats UNDER 208
With both of these teams playing last night, fatigue figures to be an issue, especially for a Suns team which relies on its uptempo game. Expect the Bobcats to slow the pace, and also for each team's shooting percentage to suffer due to tired legs. The Suns are 13-8 to the Under on the road this season and 13-5 Under against the Eastern Conference. Charlotte is one of the elite defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding its opponents to just 90.0 ppg at home. The Under is also 9-1 in the 'Suns last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Under.

5* ACC Game of the Month (ESPN) on UNC -7
Off an embarrassing loss to Clemson, look for the Tar Heels to cruise at home today where they are 11-0 on the season. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Plus, the Tar Heels are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points period. UNC is also 6-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Tech has struggled on the road, losing its last 2 away from home. We'll take the Heels in this highly motivated spot.

4* Major NCAAB Underdog of the Week on Ole Miss +7.5
Tennessee has persevered in the wake of its off the court problems, but I believe it finally catches up with them here against a very solid Ole Miss team. The Vols are clearly being overvalued in this spot, and we'll look to take advantage as the Rebs are 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Plus, this will be Tennessee's third game in a week, which can be very damaging to a team that relies on its pressure defense. In fact, Tennessee is only 3-11 ATS playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Bucks/Warriors OVER 216
The Bucks have lost 3 in a row so you can count on then going after a "W" hard tonight. Likewise, the Warriors have lost 2 in a row, so they will be equally motivated to win. With both of these teams having had a day to rest, and in highly motivated spots, I anticipate a lot of points being put up on the scoreboard tonight. When these teams faced off earlier this season, we saw 254 total points. That's no aberration either as the last meeting last season between these two teams saw 247 total points. In fact, the Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Golden state lost the first meeting between these two teams this season to set a solid Over situation here. Plays Over on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss vs. an opponent and coming off an upset loss as a favorite, are 45-18 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these spots has been 217.2 points, and we are seeing an average combined score of 222.3 points. Bet the Over.

5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Magic -4.5
With all the injury problems of the Blazers, I just can't see them getting the job done against a hungry Magic team tonight. The Blazers are really hurting inside right now with Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden out. The news gets worse as Brandon Roy is listed as doubtful for tonight's contest. Orlando was just embarrassed in Denver in its last game, and I expect that loss to provide more than enough motivation for the Magic to get the job tonight. Expect a big game from Howard since the Blazers are missing their key frontline guys. Here's the clincher: plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 33-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. For the record this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Orlando.

3* NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Spurs/Bobcats UNDER 189
We'll take the Under tonight in a battle of top 5 scoring defenses. Plus, both of these teams prefer to play in the half court on the offensive end. The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings and 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Charlotte. These two teams haven't topped 189 points in 11 meetings dating back to 2005. Not much else needs to be said here. I think we are getting pretty good value with this line.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout (ESPN 2) on St. Mary's -4
Let's just say the Gaels have had this one circled since last season. St. Mary's is sick and tired of playing second fiddle to the Zags in the WCC, and I like the Gaels to get the job done at home tonight. A loaded Gonzaga team only won by 2 points at St. Mary's last season when the Gaels didn't have Patty Mills at their disposal. In fact, Gonzaga had lost 3 of its last 4 at St. Mary's before last season's meeting. Now, the Gaels have the better team, in my opinion, and I don't think the inexperienced front court of the Bulldogs will have an answer for Omar Samhan, the best big man in the conference. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings at St. Mary's and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, but there's better ammo yet. The Gaels are a dominant 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 7-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. This is a statement game for the Gaels and I fully expect them to make that statement.

4* Major NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Celtics OVER 194
We played on the Over with the Celtics last night as they combined with the Nets to beat the total by 11 points. The Celtics are now 6-1 to the Over their last 7 games, and I'll ride the Over with them again here. Plus, the Bulls are 5-2-1 to the Over in their last 8 games. The Bulls and the Celtics have been an Overs machine whenever they have gotten together. In fact, the Over is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Boston in this series and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall. Going back 3 seasons, we've seen this matchup go 11-3-2 to the Over, including 8-1 to the Over in Boston. A big key tonight is that Boston is playing without Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace so it will be forced to play small ball. And when the Celtics play small ball, they score a lot more points. That's why the Bulls/Celtics series was such a high scoring one in last year's playoffs when Garnett was sidelined. While Boston is known for being one of the league's better defensive teams, it has struggled in KG's absence. In fact, the Celtics have allowed their opponents to score 102 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. The Bulls have struggled to score the basketball this season, but they are improving in that area. The Bulls have now scored 101 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. Lastly, Chicago is 18-5 Over versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Over.

3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Thunder -1
This is a really tough spot for the Spurs tonight after an emotional win over the Lakers last night. In fact, the veteran Spurs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. While the Spurs have been playing good basketball, the Lakers are just the fourth winning team they have beaten this season. It's been tough for the veteran Spurs to hang with the youthful Thunder too, as the Thunder are 3-1 in their last 4 games against San Antonio. The Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. The Thunder are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take the Thunder.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator of the Week on Celtics/Nets OVER 187
Boston has played to the Over in 5 of its last 6 games as its defense is not the same without Kevin Garnett on the floor. This line opened at 190, and the fact that it has been bet down to where we see it now creates additional value in taking the Over. We only saw 162 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but keep in mind that Harris, Lee, Dooling, Douglas-Roberts and Yi Jianlian missed that game. That means that 66.1 points were missing from the Nets' lineup. With all those guys expected to be on the floor tonight, I expect New Jersey to provide enough of a scoring punch to push this one Over.

5* Big East Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on UConn -6
Pitt had UConn's number last season, sweeping the season series, but I expect payback from UConn tonight. Both teams have lost key contributors, but Pitt clearly lost more. UConn will be further motivated tonight by a loss at Georgetown in its last game. UConn led by as many as 19 in the first half in that game and took a 15-point lead to the locker room, but the Hoyas rallied for a 72-69 victory that left Jim Calhoun fuming mad. UConn is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is winning by 13.1 ppg. The Huskies are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Expect UConn to roll in this highly motivated spot.

3* SEC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Florida +3.5
While Kentucky is undefeated, it has had a number of scares, even against teams like Miami Ohio. What's the explanation? Kentucky is a young team. It has only played one true road game this season and it will not be ready for the environment it is about to step into. Florida has proven that it can play some ball, having already defeated Michigan State, and it will be extremely motivated to knock off the No. 2 team in the country, especially after enduring a loss in its last game. The Gators were once ranked as high as No. 10 this season and they know a win here will help then regain national respect. Kentucky is just 1-8 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Florida. Take the points.

5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Grizzlies -5
Sunday the Clippers came through for us for an easy win over Miami. That win came at home where they have won 6 in a row. Expect a different story on the road tonight where they have lost 4 straight. The Clippers are just 12-27 ATS in their last 39 road games, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies have won 5 straight at home and they will be extremely motivated tonight as they look to bounce back from a 2-point loss at Charlotte. The Clippers have visited Memphis once already this season and the Grizzlies handed them a 15-point loss as a 5.5-point favorite and I expect a similar result tonight. The Grizzlies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Grizz.

4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Drake +6
Missouri State is getting too much respect here simply because the books know the betting public will jump on the Bears who have the much better record. Drake has been playing some good basketball. It just went to Creighton last week and played the Jays to a 4-point game as a 13-point dog. It then won at S. Illinois by 5 points as a 12.5-point Saturday. Expect Drake ride the momentum of that win to another solid performance tonight. Drake has won by double digits at home each of the last 2 seasons in this matchup so it will not be lacking any confidence tonight. The Bears have been a terrible bet in conference play recently as they are just 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Missouri Valley. Plus, they are 1-10 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and Drake is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take the points.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Hawks +4.5
While Boston would like to avenge Friday's loss to the Hawks, I don't think it will have enough left in the tank after playing against the Raptors Sunday. The Celtics are a veteran team, and lacking depth with Marquis Daniels out and Kevin Garnett expected to miss again. In fact, the Celtics are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on zero days rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The Hawks take great joy in facing the team they measure themselves against, and they have already won the season's first two meetings, including an 11-point win in Boston. After getting absolutely destroyed by Orlando Saturday, expect the Hawks to be extremely motivated tonight. In fact, the Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, plays on road teams, explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, are 24-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Boston needed 29 points from Rasheed Wallace and a triple double from Rajon Rondo to defeat the Raptors yesterday, and I don't see either of those guys having as strong of a game against a very athletic Atlanta team. We'll take the points.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Louisville -2.5
Expect Villanova to be emotionally and physically drained after escaping Marquette by the skin of its teeth barely 48 hours ago. Louisville is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and has won the last 3 SU & ATS as its pressure defense has been able to wear down the Wildcats. A big reason for Louisville's success is the Pitino factor. That's why the Cardinals are 42-13-2 ATS in their last 57 games against the Big East, including 18-6 ATS the last 2 seasons and winning by an average of 73.7 to 62.6 in those games. Few teams in the country are able to enforce their will on opponents the way Pitino's Cards do, and that is why they have had so much success. The Cardinals are also an impressive 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Wildcats have already lost at Temple by 10 points in a hostile environment, but with a whiteout slated in Louisville, I expect the level of hostility to be raised here. Take the Cards.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week (CBS) on Kansas -5.5
Tennessee is not the same team without Tyler Smith and several other key contributors, and Kansas enters this game with renewed focus after getting a major scare from Cornell. These two things should add up to a double digit win for the Jayhawks today. While Tennessee is solid defensively, it's hard to ignore what the Jayhawks have done to good defensive teams in recent year. Kansas is 17-4 ATS versus good defensive teams, holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 78.2 to 63.4. Take Kansas.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Clippers -2
The Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS their last 5 games with wins over the Celtics, Blazers, and Lakers. I expect no letdown here either as the Clipps have had 3 full days to get geared up for Dwayne Wade and company. The Clippers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and the home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. This Clippers teams is finally getting a taste of winning, and it seems to like what it's tasting. Lay the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Magic -3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Hawks after a big win over Boston and a bounce spot for the Magic after a poor performance against Washington. Orlando has dropped 4 in a row, and losing has been a rarity for this team over the past few seasons. I expect the Magic to be very hungry tonight against a team they are 4-0 SU & ATS against in the last 4 meetings. Plus, it makes sense to take the favorite in this spot as plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 57-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Magic.

3* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on The Citadel -2
We'll fade College of Charleston in a huge letdown spot after a big win over UNC. It's going to be impossible for the Cougars to get up for this game the same way while that win will only motivate The Citadel more. The Citadel swept Charleston last season with a pair of impressive wins and have now won 8 of the last 12 at home in this series. Charleston actually matches up better with UNC because it likes to play uptempo basketball. The slow down style of The Cit has given the Cougars fits. In fact, Charleston is 0-6 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The Citadel is 18-6 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and I'll pound them here.

4* Major ACC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Georgia Tech +7
Duke is getting too much respect here against a quality opponent that will be very hungry after a poor performance against Georgia. Tech brings back more experience than the Blue Devils and it will be further motivated to end a 4-game losing streak against Duke. Tech is on a solid 30-14 ATS run as a home underdog or pick, including 21-8 ATS in that role under coach Hewitt. The Blue Devils are constantly overvalued, especially on Saturday's when they often play in the national spotlight as we they are here. That's why they are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Pac-10 SMASH on Washington +4
Following an embarrassing 11-point home loss to Oregon as an 11-point favorite, expect the Huskies to bounce back in a big way tonight. Washington is 2-0 SU & ATS at Arizona State the last two seasons with a pair of double digit wins and I expect this trend to continue. In fact, the Huskies are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Arizona State and the road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Huskies are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog while the Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Super System Side Winner on Grizzlies -3
We just can't ignore the fact that Memphis is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing at home against a team it already lost to on the road, winning these games by an average of 10 points. Utah just crushed the Grizzlies Wednesday to end their 4-game winning streak, and you can bet that defeat is not sitting well. Memphis is a solid 10-5 at home this season while the Jazz are just 6-10 on the road, and I'll take Memphis to have its revenge tonight.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Hawks -3
Atlanta gets up for the C's unlike any other team. They already defeated Boston by 11 points in the Garden, and I like them to come through again here against a Celtics squad playing without Kevin Garnett. Boston has dropped 3 of its last 4 road games, needing OT to win at Miami Wednesday, and the Heat aren't as good as the Hawks in my book. Atlanta is 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS at home this season and I think home court will treat them well again tonight. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Celtics are only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta desperately wants to assert itself as just as much of a contender as Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston in the East. They take another step toward doing so tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Knicks UNDER 199.5
This line opened at 197, but has been bet up to 199.5, and it is holding right there for now as the books are begging for more action on the Over. But the Over isn't justified tonight. These two teams just played in New York on December 20th and we saw only 192 combined points. They played in Charlotte on December 15th and we saw only 181 combined points. Those lines closed at 196 and 197 respectively and the books didn't hesitate to come right back with the same number, knowing the public would be all over the Over after seeing them play high scoring games. Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games, are 44-16 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these games has been 195.3 and the average total score has been 188.2. The Under gets the call here.

3* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN 2) on Michigan +2.5
Michigan has underachieved in the early stages of the season, but I like it to build off of its win over Ohio State with a big win over a poor Penn State team tonight. The Nittany Lions have one player, Taylor Battle, and I expect an experienced and more athletic Michigan squad to find a way to hold him in check to get the "W" here. The Wolverines are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Penn State and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Nittany Lions just aren't good enough to be trusted in the chalk as they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. We'll side with the Wolverines here.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Heat UNDER 188.5
I'm expecting a defensive battle in Miami tonight. The Heat have played to the Under in 6 of their last 7 games and I expect this trend to continue against a Celtics team ready to clamp down on the defensive end following a lengthy 3-day layoff. The Under is 12-3-1 in the Celtics' last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 12-4 in the Heat's last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are only allowing 93.2 ppg at home while the Celtics are only giving up 92.2 ppg on the road for a total of 185.4 points. This tells me we are getting a few extra points of value. With both of these teams' preferring to play in the half court, we'll take the Under tonight.

5* NCAAB Total of the Month (ESPN 2) on Memphis/Syracuse UNDER 145.5
We saw just 137 total points in last year's matchup as Memphis really struggled with the Syracuse matchup zone. I expect those struggles to continue as Memphis does not shoot the 3 very well, just 33.3% on the road. Plus, Memphis is 17-4 Under off a home win over the last 2 seasons, combining with its opponent for only 131.7 points in these games. The reason for this is Memphis usually scores a lot or points at home and that elevates the line in its next game. The Under is also 5-1-1 in the Orange's last 7 vs. Conference USA. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Lakers UNDER 199.5
The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams and also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at the Staples Center. While LA has been on a scoring spree lately, we can't lose sight of the fact that it has been playing uptempo teams that don't play much defense (Sacramento, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento). Houston has played to the Under in 5 of its last 6 games, failing to reach the century mark in all 5 of those games that went Under. Plus, Plays Under on any team (LA) after 5 or more consecutive overs, a good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, are 117-67 since 1996. Bet the Under.

3* Big Ten SMASH (Big 10 Network) on Illinois -14
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying, but consider that Iowa is 0-4 when playing away from home this season and losing by 17.2 points on average in those games. Also consider that Illinois is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 20.6 points on average in those games. Illinois has lost 3 of its last 4, including a couple tough ones against Georgia and Gonzaga, and I expect it to avenge these losses in a big way against a team that I believe is easily the worst in the Big Ten. Illinois is scoring 86.0 ppg at home this season while Iowa is only scoring 59.5 points on the road. Iowa just doesn't have enough fire power to keep up tonight. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double digit loss at home. Lay the number.