Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Ohio State -2.5
The Buckeyes lost to Kansas in Lawrence by 11 points back in December, but Jared Sullinger didn't play in that contest. On a neutral floor and with Sullinger in the lineup, I fully expect the Buckeyes to have their revenge.

Consider that Ohio State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral court games when out for revenge for a same season loss. The Buckeyes are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big Ten.

The fact Kansas enters off a cover actually bodes well for the Buckeyes. That's because KU is 5-12 ATS after a game in which it covered the spread this season, including 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in this situation.

Kansas has a few nice weapons (Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson) but Ohio State has more guys (Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft) that are capable of putting the team on their back. I expect Craft's defense on Taylor to be the key to a Buckeyes win and cover.

3* Final Four SMASH on Louisville +9
Louisville played Kentucky to a 7-point game Dec. 31 while holding the Wildcats to a season-low 29.8 percent shooting. Kentucky is a better team than it was then, but so is Louisville.

In that contest, the Cards hounded the Kentucky guards and forced them into 21 turnovers. I expect Louisville's pressure defense to once again give the Wildcats problems.

Kentucky was dominant on the glass in the first meeting but the Cards still managed to cover the spread. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game - this season.

Louisville is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral floor games against non-conference foes this season and 8-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.

It is also worth noting that Louisville is 34-15 ATS all-time under coach Pitino when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.

All the pressure is on Kentucky here, and the Cards will draw plenty of confidence from having played the Wildcats tough earlier this season. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Hawks -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 17-point loss in New York last month, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong this evening.

The road hasn't been too kind to the Knicks. They are 9-15 when playing away from Madison Square Garden this season and enter tonight's contest with 7 losses in their last 9 road contests. Those 7 road defeats have come by an average of 9.7 points and all of them have come by at least 4 points.

The Hawks are a rock solid 16-8 at home on the season and check in with 6 wins in their last 8 home contests. Those 6 wins, one of which was a 7-point victory against the Thunder, have come by an average of 7.0 points.

The banged-up Knicks caught Orlando napping last game, but they won't take the Hawks by surprise here. The Knicks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and I expect their road struggles to continue.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals.

Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here.

Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points.

It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games.

With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Raptors +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Chicago and Orlando and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak to the Nuggets, expect the Raptors to take care of business at home tonight.

Toronto has quietly been playing some very good basketball. Prior to a disappointing performance against Orlando last game, it had defeated the Knicks by 17 and played the Bulls to a 1-point game on the road.

Denver is coming off a big win over the Bulls, which spells letdown for it tonight. Plus, the Nuggets really haven't been playing that well. They haven't won consecutive games since early this month, and, prior to beating Chicago, lost by 19 and 17 points at Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest.

The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Nuggets are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 and I'm not hesitating to fade them tonight. Take Toronto and best of luck.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -1.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Indiana and New York as well as a pair of losses to Atlanta in the season's first two meetings, expect the Bucks to bounce back strong tonight.

Milwaukee, which trails NY by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way out. The Bucks get 7 of their next 9 at home.

This is also a look ahead spot for Atlanta, which has a big home game against the Bulls tomorrow night.

The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Under coach Drew, Atlanta is just 14-28 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. It is losing by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 30-15 ATS in home games under coach Skiles after 2 or more consecutive losses. Milwaukee has won by an average of 5.6 points in this situation. Bet the Bucks.

4* NIT SMASH on Massachusetts +2.5
UMass is being undervalued here. The Minutemen have been underdogs in 5 straight games and are 4-1 in those contests with the only defeat being a half-point ATS loss to St. Bonaventure.

They have upset wins on the road over Mississippi State, Seton Hall and Drexel in this tournament. That resume is more impressive than the one Stanford enters with - home wins over Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada.

Stanford has almost been a dead fade when odds makers have projected them to be in a close game. Consider that the Cardinal are only 4-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. They have lost these contests by an average of 3.4 points. The Cardinal are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 20 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS victory.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take UMass.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +7
The Bobcats will be lacking no motivation here following 3 consecutive defeats. Plus, this is a bad spot for Boston, which will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

The Celtics are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-8 ATS in road games when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.1.

The Celtics have also been a poor investment on the road at 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

The Bobcats likely won't have to come up with a bunch of turnovers to cover this number either. Consider that Boston is 0-10 ATS in road games in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. The Celtics have lost to these teams by an average score of 93.7 to 84.1.

The underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Charlotte won 2 of those 4 straight up. We'll bet the Bobcats.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +7
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and losses in both of this season's prior matchups with the Lakers, expect Memphis to show well tonight.

The Grizzlies played Saturday while the Lakers rested, but the Grizzlies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest and the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Grizzlies lost 116-111 at home to the Lakers in double OT on March 13 without stars Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. With these two back in the lineup, Memphis should, at the very least, be able to take LA down to the wire again.

4* Elite 8 SMASH on Baylor +8
Baylor has been a tremendous investment in the underdog role under coach Drew at 70-51 ATS. Look for the Baylor Bears to keep this one within the number Sunday.

The value clearly lies with Baylor here as it enters off a hard-fought win over Xavier in which it didn't cover the spread. Kentucky, meanwhile, has rolled in back-to-back wins and covers over Iowa State and Indiana. Those performances are sure to get the attention of the public and odds makers are well aware of that fact.

One thing you haven't wanted to do is go against Baylor following an ATS loss. That's because the Bears are on a 5-0 ATS run in this situation and have won these contests by an average 14.8 points. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

Baylor has the size and athleticism to match up with Kentucky. Plus, it has been unfazed when playing in neutral court/road games this season, posting a 16-4 record. Bet Baylor.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to the Lakers and Spurs, expect the defending NBA champs to take their frustrations out on a team they have owned. The Mavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against Houston.

Dallas just played last night, but it is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when its starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Mavericks are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

The Mavericks are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston. We'll take the points.

3* Elite 8 SMASH on Syracuse +3
The value clearly lies with Syracuse here. The Orange barely escaped Wisconsin while the Buckeyes won rather easily against Cincinnati. Naturally, the public is jumping on the Buckeyes following that performance. We won't do the same.

First of all, Ohio State split with Wisconsin this season, losing by 3 points and winning by 6. With this in mind, we can make the claim that the Buckeyes aren't much better than the Badgers.

Secondly, Wisconsin needed 14 3-point makes to stick with the Orange. I don't see Ohio State making half that many. The Buckeyes only average 6 per game on 34.8% shooting. The Orange will make sure Ohio State's front line doesn't beat them, and I don't think the Buckeyes can make enough 3's to get the job done.

Syracuse is 25-11 ATS all-time under coach Boeheim as a neutral court underdog or pickem. It has won these games by an average score of 73.4 to 72.5.

The Orange are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.

4* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -1
One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Gators when odds makers anticipate a close game. That's because they are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 71.9 to 66.2.

Louisville plays good defense, but it won't be able to keep Florida from getting open 3-point looks in transition. Florida's guards are just too good. The Gators are among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, averaging 10 makes per game while shooting them at a 38% clip. I expect Florida's edge from beyond the arc to be the difference here.

The Gators are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Florida.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Kansas -8
Odds makers clearly want the money on NC State by installing the red-hot Wolfpack as nearly a double-digit dog. We won't take the bait. Kansas is the more talented team, and it will be very focused here after getting a scare by Purdue. The Jayhawks will draw further motivation from recent shortcomings. It was knocked out of last year's Big Dance by VCU and it hasn't forgotten. I expect that loss to be the driving force before a decisive victory by the Jayhawks tonight.

Taking Kansas following a game in which it failed to cover the spread has produced an 11-4 ATS mark this season. The Jayhawks, who have won by an average score of 72.8 to 60.7 in this situation, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

Kansas is also an impressive 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral floor games after a close win by 3 points or less. It has won by an average score of 78.1 to 64.2 in this situation.

NC State is solid defensively, but KU is 13-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The Jayhawks have defeated these clubs by an average score of 74.6 to 57.6.

NC State, meanwhile, is just 4-12 ATS versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% shooting or worse over the last two seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 66.4. Take Kansas and best of luck.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Ohio +10.5
UNC is likely Kendall Marshall, and he won't be himself even if he does try to play. Without Marshall, the Tar Heels find themselves at a disadvantage against an Ohio squad that is forcing more than 17 turnovers a game and ranks fourth in the country in steals (9.3). Without Marshall, I expect UNC to have some turnover issues tonight.

Ohio has been taking excellent care of the rock and is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests after 3 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Mid-American Conference.

Ohio played Louisville to a 5-point on the road earlier this season and has upset a pair of power conference teams in the first two rounds of this tournament.

UNC has the superior front court, but I expect those players won't have as many good looks without Marshall at full strength. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Raptors +5.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 19-point loss at New York Mar. 20, expect the Raptors to give the Knicks all they want and more tonight.

Prior to that loss, Toronto had defeated the Knicks by 5 points in the season's first meeting and only lost by 3 points in the second meeting. In other words, the Raptors clearly have what it takes to get the "W" in this highly motivated spot.

The Knicks have not shown that they can be trusted in the road chalk at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Plus, the Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

Lastly, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* (TBS) on Marquette -2
After back-to-back blowout wins over double-digit seeds, I expect Florida to be in for a rude awakening as it takes a major step up in competition tonight. The Golden Eagles were tested by Murray State last time out, so I fully expect them to be on their game.

With the total currently at 146.5, odds makers are expecting some points to be scored in this contest. History suggests this high number indicates the odds are in Marquette's favor. Consider that Marquette is 8-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997. It has won these games by an average score of 78.9 to 64.1.

In addition, the Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Florida isn't the same team without Chandler Parsons, and that has been apparent all season. I'm not going to let what they've done against two inferior teams in the Big Dance change my opinion.

The Golden Eagles are on a mission to get to the Elite 8 after losing in the Sweet 16 last year. We'll lay the points.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on Cincinnati +7.5
It's hard not to like the Bearcats catching this many points considering they are 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Ohio State is just 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral court games on the year.

The Bearcats have been a terrific investment down the stretch at 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in road/neutral floor games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Cats have won these contests by an average score of 66.4 to 64.2.

It is also worth noting that the Buckeyes are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Ohio State was pushed to the limit by Gonzaga, and now it is up against an even more physical team. These points should come in handy in what is expected to be a defensive-minded game.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Louisville +5
I think Louisville is getting too many points given how well it is playing and with one of the best in the business on the sidelines (coach Pitino).

Michigan State only defeated St. Louis by 4 points despite shooting 54.3% from the field and holding the Billikens to 35.3% shooting. That's not a good sign.

Louisville is 11-4 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. It has won these games by an average score of 63.9 to 62.3. It is also 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average score of 64.5 to 56.3.

The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Spartans are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors +7.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a 13-point loss in the season's first meeting, expect the Raptors to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight.

Revenge has been a great angle to play with the Raptors, who are 13-4 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors have actually won by an average score of 101.3 to 95.6 in this situation.

The Raptors have been extremely undervalued against winning teams and Chicago couldn't be more overvalued here following an 85-59 win over Orlando without Derrick Rose on the floor. The Raptors are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

It is also worth noting that the Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Middle Tennessee State -3
MTSU has won 13 in a row at home with all of those wins coming by at least 3 points. The fact that this is just MTSU's 2nd game in 8 days also bodes well for us because the Blue Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have won by an average score of 76.5 to 58.5 in this situation.

It also can't be ignored that MTSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 70.9 to 61.8.

The Blue Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll back them laying a small number tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had 2 days to prepare, expect the Pacers to take care of business tonight at home, where they are 13-6.

The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past 4 meetings by an average of 15.8 points. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers have won 2 straight and 11 of their last 14 at home in this series.

In addition, the Clippers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Central division opponents and 0-7 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season. We'll lay the points.

4* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Drexel -6.5
After pulling off a pair of road upsets over Mississippi State and Seton Hall, I expect UMass to finally meet its match. Drexel is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 13.2 points.

UMass is solid defensively, holding its foes to 40.8% shooting for the season. However, Drexel is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when matched up against good defensive teams (holding opponents to 42% shooting or worse) after 15-plus games. The Dragons have defeated these teams by an average score of 70.0 to 54.6.

In addition, Drexel is 6-0 ATS this season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game after 15-plus games. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 65.4 to 55.4.

It is also worth mentioning that UMass is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Kellogg when checking into a matchup after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Minutemen have lost these contests by an average score of 76.0 to 63.5. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Nuggets -4
The Nuggets will be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge last month's two double-digit defeats to Dallas. Danilo Gallinari didn't play in either of those games, and I expect his presence to make a big difference for Denver in this one.

Gallinari is averaging 18.0 points on 47.2 percent shooting in his last three games, a good sign that he's back to being the player he was before injury. The Nuggets defeated the Mavs 115-93 in Dallas in the lone game he's played in the series this season.

The Mavs have really struggled on the road, where they have lost 7 in a row by an average of 9.4 points. We'll fade the Mavs on the road here.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +1.5
Motivated by back-to-back poor performance against Sacramento and Denver, expect Boston to take care of business tonight.

Boston has played a lot of games in not a lot of days but should benefit from having Sunday off while the Hawks were in action. Besides, road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team playing 9 or more games in 14 days, are 34-12 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Hawks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. Also, they are just 13-27 ATS all-time under coach Drew following 2 or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 96.2 to 92.9 in this situation.

The Hawks are very banged up. They were to get past Washington and Cleveland without being at full strength, but I don't think they'll be able to get past the Celtics. Bet Boston.

4* NIT *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Middle Tennessee State +5
MTSU wants this game badly as it has lost 8 in a row to Tennessee dating back to 1999. The Blue Raiders are a very good basketball team, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset.

These two played 5 like opponents this season. MTSU went 5-1 in those games while Tennessee went 4-3. In looking at like matchups against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, there is reason to believe the Blue Raiders can cover this number.

MTSU only lost at Vandy by 7 while Tennessee lost at Vandy by 18. Also, MTSU defeated Ole Miss by 12 at home. Tennessee defeated Ole Miss by just 13 at home.

The Blue Raiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. They have won these games by an average score of 70.9 to 61.5. We'll take the points.

4* Big Dance Sunday Night SMASH (TRU) on Xavier -3.5
It's going to be very tough for Lehigh to bounce back with the intensity it needs to beat Xavier following such an emotionally draining victory over Duke.

Xavier is way more talented than your average 10-seed. It was highly ranked early in the season and likely would have remained that way throughout had it not been for "the brawl", which sent it into a momentary tailspin. The Musketeers did not like going home early last year after making at least the Sweet 16 the 3 previous years. With Duke out of the picture, the Musketeers could be looking at another lengthy run.

Xavier is an awesome 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 NCAA tournament games, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by an embarrassing 121-94 loss at Atlanta in the season's first meeting, expect the Cavs to take care of business this afternoon.

Cleveland has had 3 full days to rest up and prepare for this game. Atlanta has only had one and will likely already be looking ahead to tomorrow's matchup with Boston.

Cleveland has been a phenomenal small dog at 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the points.

4* Big Dance SMASH on Georgetown -4
A nice little run at the end of the season got NC State into the dance. Its momentum carried it to a win over San Diego State Friday, but I expect its run to end here.

This Georgetown team is one of the best in the country. It was very focused in its first game against Belmont as it was determined not to make another early exit. I think we'll see that same focus and intensity from the Hoyas here.

Georgetown has been a handful in non-conference play. It is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average score of 76.7 to 57.7. The Hoyas have especially been a strong investment when matched up against the ACC, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the conference. Take Georgetown.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -3
This is a letdown spot for the Spurs, who check in off a big win over the Thunder last night. It will be very difficult for this veteran team to match the intensity they played with last night, and I believe a failure to do so will get them beat.

Dallas is the reigning NBA champ, and it will be hungry for a statement win to show the NBA it is still a contender. The Mavs have quietly won 4 in a row and 8 of 10 at home. Their recent home dominance is significant because they are 18-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 6.3 points in these games.

The Mavericks are also 31-14-2 ATS in their last 47 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the Mavs.

5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Indiana -6
It's been a great two-year run for VCU, but I believe it comes to an end here. The Rams have cleaned up against teams from mid-major conferences but are just 1-3 against schools from power conferences. They have losses of 15, 13 and 8 points to Seton Hall, Georgia Tech and Alabama and Indiana is far superior to these three.

Teams in the Big Ten have had some success against the Hoosiers but nobody else has this season. With Indiana's round of 64 win, it improved to 14-0 against non-conference foes. 8 of those games have been lined and the Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in those games, winning them by an average score of 83.7 to 59.9. 3 of these wins have come against NC State, Kentucky and Notre Dame. Lay the points.

4* NCAA Tournament SMASH on Vandy -1
Vandy is one of the most experienced teams in the tournament, and it is playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Commodores, who upset Kentucky in the SEC tourney final, look like a team capable of getting to the Final Four.

These two played one like opponent this season - Marquette. Vandy won at Marquette by 17 while Wiscy lost there by 7. While one game doesn't mean everything, it also doesn't mean nothing. I think Vandy is the better team and will prove that today.

The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Vandy is also 9-0 ATS when playing away from home versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game this season, 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus very good defensive teams with a shooting pct defense of <=39% this season, 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus poor passing teams averaging <=12 assists/game this season and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after holding an opponent to 25 points or less in the first half last game this season. Take Vandy.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Timberwolves +8.5
This is a game the Timberwolves want badly after dropping the season's first 3 meetings with the Lakers. Motivated by those losses and a 6-point setback in Utah last night, expect the Wolves to give the Lakers a game.

Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as an underdog this season, 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Timberwolves are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings road meetings in this series.

The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in Friday night home games the last 3 seasons. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the T-Wolves in this highly motivated spot.

4* Friday Night Big Dance *TOP DOG* on Xavier +2.5
Xavier underachieved this season as a brawl with Cincinnati sent it into a tailspin. Notre Dame, meanwhile overachieved, exceeding expectations without Tim Abromaitis in the lineup.

However, the Musketeers have gotten their mojo back. They have won three of their last four with a big win over a very good St. Louis team in the Atlantic 10 tournament.

Notre Dame has started to come back down to earth with losses in 3 of its last 5 games and the two wins against South Florida and Providence in this stretch were rather unimpressive.

These two played 3 like opponents this season and Xavier went 2-1 versus those teams while Notre Dame went 0-3. The Musketeers defeated Cincy and Georgia by double digits but lost to Gonzaga. The Irish lost to Cincy and Gonzaga by double digits and Georgia by 4 points.

It's hard not to like the Musketeers catching points in the Big Dance considering they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. They are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games overall.

The Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games and 0-6 ATS in non-conference games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Take Xavier.

4* Cinderella SMASH on NC State -2
This is not the same San Diego State squad that won two games in last year's Big Dance and this line certainly reflects that.

NC State is peaking at just the right time. It enters the Dance having won 4 of its last 5 with the lone loss being a 2-point setback to No. 1 seed North Carolina. SDSU struggled against the top teams in the MWC, losing its last 3 against New Mexico (twice) and UNLV and wasn't overly impressive in its non-conference slate. It lost to Baylor by 10 points and lost to Creighton by 2 points and was fortunate to beat USC, Long Beach State and Arizona. NC State played a tougher non-conference schedule and played in a better league - two things that will benefit it in this game.

The fact NC State finished strong bodes well for us because it is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Gottfried when playing away from home following 2 wins in its last 3 games. The Wolfpack have won by an average score of 73.7 to 62.0 in this situation.

It's also worth noting that NC State is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, and they get the call here.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Cincinnati -2
This Cincinnati team, which defeated Mizzou 78-63 in the first round last year, has the ability to go deep in this tournament. It would be a major upset in my mind if this young, inexperienced Texas squad moved on here, and I don't see it happening.

Texas is just 5-10 when playing away from home this season while Cincy is 9-6. The Bearcats also enter the dance playing better basketball with 9 wins in their last 12 games.

The Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The fact Texas doesn't force many turnovers weighs heavily in our favor. That's because Cincy is 8-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take the Bearcats.

5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wichita State -6
With VCU's 2011 Cinderella run fresh in everyone's mind, odds makers are trying to take advantage. They are begging bettors to take the points with last year's Final Four participant, but we won't fall for the trap.

This is not the same VCU team. The Rams returned just 2 starters from that squad, which is a big reason why they were crushed by double digits in road/neutral court games against non-tournament teams Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.

Wichita State has the look of a very dangerous team and should meet the challenge here. It is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home 15 or more games into the season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. The Shockers are defeating these teams by an average of 11.0 points.

The Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Wichita State defeated No. 8 seed Creighton by 21 on the road. It also defeated No. 13 seed Dayton by 17 on the road. The Shockers also have an impressive 19-point win over No. 6 seed UNLV. Wichita State is capable of a blowout here. We'll lay the points.

4* Early Blowout on Vandy -5
Harvard, which is making its first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, is not accustomed to playing in such big games. Vandy, meanwhile, is making its 3rd straight NCAA tournament appearance and fifth in six years.

The Commodores enter the Dance win tons of momentum and confidence after defeating No. 1 overall seed Kentucky in the SEC tournament final, and there's no way they'll get caught overlooking Harvard after getting bounced in the first round the last two years.

The Crimson are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-7 ATS when playing away from home in March the last 3 seasons. Harvard is also 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Amaker when playing with 7 or more days' rest.

Vandy is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also 8-0 ATS when playing away from home versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less this season and 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams that have outrebounded their opponents by 4 or more per game this season.

The Crimson are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lay the points.

4* Cinderella SMASH on Long Beach State +4
Long Beach State has the ability to make a Cinderella run in this year's Big Dance and that run starts with a win over New Mexico.

The 49ers have excelled against excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and hold their opponents to 42% or less from the floor. They are 8-1 ATS versus these teams this season, defeating them by an average score of 72.6 to 64.7. It is also worth noting that they are 21-9 ATS all-time under coach Monson versus such teams.

Long Beach State showed it is capable of playing with any team in the country when it played Kansas and North Carolina to within 8 and 6 points respectively on the road earlier this season. New Mexico played in a good league but hasn't been tested the same way

The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. We'll take the points as Long Beach State has a terrific opportunity to win this one outright.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oral Roberts -5.5
Oral Roberts is 15-0 at home where it has won by an average of 10.9 points. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Nevada is no slouch but will certainly have its work cut out for itself in ORU's gym.

In addition, common opponent analysis supports this play. These two have played three like opponents since the beginning of last season. Oral Roberts is 4-0 versus those foes while Nevada is 0-3.

This season, ORU defeated Missouri State at home by 5 points while Nevada lost to Missouri State at home by 22. Last season, Nevada lost by double digits to Pacific and South Dakota State - teams ORU defeated by 16, 8 and 4 points respectively (played SDSU twice). We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Bucknell +8.5
This is a letdown spot for Arizona, which can't be excited in the least about playing in the NIT after making a deep NCAA tournament run last year. Bucknell, meanwhile, will relish this opportunity to face off against a top-tier program, especially since it was a major disappointment against Connecticut in the first round of last year's NCAA tourney. With 4 starters back from that team, you can bet the Bison will be hungry to show the country on national TV that they can compete with the big boys.

Arizona won't be at full strength after losing Josiah Turner due to a suspension. Plus, Jordin Mayes, who is dealing with a foot injury, isn't 100 percent.

Arizona is just 2-9 ATS in home games after a game where it's failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet Bucknell.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +4.5
This isn't a good spot for the Lakers. First of all, they are just 6-15-1 ATS in road games this season, losing these games by an average score of 97.1 to 92.6. Secondly, the Lakers just played a double-OT game in Memphis last night. They will be fatigued and typically struggle when that is the case. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Bobcats are coming off a loss to the NBA's worst team (Charlotte) so you can expect them to be very motivated this evening. The Hornets have home wins over Boston, Orlando and Dallas and have played San Antonio to a 2-point game at home. In other words, beating the Lakers outright is certainly in the cards.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and the underdog is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -5
Motivated by a home loss to Memphis Sunday, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong against a team they have defeated 3 consecutive times by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets have won 4 in a row at home against the Hawks with those wins coming by an average of 9.5 points.

The Nuggets have dominated teams from the East, going 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games against them. They have especially dominated the Southeast division, going 10-1 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets haven't just won these games, they have won them by an average of 18.7 points. Bet Denver.

4* NCAAB SMASH on Akron +6.5
We find Northwestern in a letdown spot this evening as it had its sights set on the NCAA tournament. It will be very difficult for the Wildcats to get up for this game as they clearly don't want to be playing in the NIT.

Akron wanted to be dancing as well, but defeating a team from a power conference would be a nice consolation prize.

The Zips have been a terrific investment at 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are 38-16-5 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.

I just don't think Northwestern's heart will be in this one tonight. Take Akron.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +4
The Timberwolves have lost back-to-back games, Ricky Rubio for the season and they lost in Phoenix by 9 points earlier this month. The Suns have been playing well, winning 4 of 5 since these two last met, and yet they are laying less points than they did the last time these two faced off. I smell a trap.

The books obviously like Minnesota's chances tonight, and I have to agree. Rubio plays with flare at times and makes spectacular plays on occasion, but veteran Luke Ridnour is a better shooter and plays with intelligence. I don't see much of a drop off, if any.

The T-wolves shot 1 of 13 from 3-point range in the previous meeting, and I don't see that happening again. We're talking about a team that averages 7 3-point makes per game.

Minnesota is 19-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season, 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Also, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -6
After losing the season's first two meetings in Memphis by a combined 4 points, I expect the Nuggets to avoid the season sweep with a comfortable win tonight.

Denver has won 8 in a row at home against the Grizzlies with those wins coming by an average of 14 points.

The Grizzlies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games and 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Denver. We'll lay the points.

5* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* (CBS) on Michigan State +2
This is the matchup the Spartans were hoping for when they lost to Ohio State by 2 points at home in the regular season finale and lost an outright Big Ten title along with it.

Big Ten player of the year Draymond Green certainly wants this game. "It's just another opportunity for us. We had two chances to win the Big Ten outright, we didn't do it," Green said. "You can't really make up for it, but it's an opportunity to feel better about it if we get this conference tournament championship. It's just another way to leave that footprint, leave your legacy."

Green also knows a win could give his team a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Spartans as a neutral court dog. That's because they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 as a neutral court underdog or pickem. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem.

Michigan State has also been strong in revenge spots. It is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 69.5 to 62.0 in this situation. It is also 11-3 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, winning in this situation by an average score of 70.9 to 63.5.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take Michigan State.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Chicago and Atlanta, and further fueled by a pair of lopsided losses in the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Pacers to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Indiana believes it can play with anyone in the NBA this season, and it will be out to solidify that belief this evening.

As far as rest goes, the advantage lies with Indy. It has had 3 full days to rest and prepare while Miami has only had 2. The Heat are 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. We'll take the points.

4* SEC Tourney SMASH on Florida +9.5
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to Kentucky during the season, and further fueled by an opportunity to improve their tournament seeding, expect the Gators to give the Wildcats a game.

The Gators are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Wildcats are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

Odds makers have drastically overvalued the Wildcats following virtually every point-spread loss it has endured this season, and that remains the case here. UK is just 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. We'll take the points as this trend holds strong.

5* ACC Game of the Year on NC State +9
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to the Heels in the two regular season meetings and further fueled by an opportunity to leave no doubt in the minds of the NCAA selection committee, expect NC State to give UNC all it wants and more here.

The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.

Also, UNC is 0-9 ATS when playing away from home with one or no days' rest over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this situation by an average of 1.9 points.

This game means way more to the Wolfpack. Take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Clippers +5
Motivated by back-to-back 1-point defeats, and further fueled by a pair of loss to San Antonio this season, expect the Clippers to give the Spurs all they want and more.

The Clippers have been a strong wager in bounce back spots at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The fact San Antonio enters off a satisfying win over the Knicks bodes well for us. That's because the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Spurs have dropped 2 of their last 4 at home, and could suffer another setback tonight. We'll take the points.

5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on Kent State +2
Kent State lost to Akron by 1 point in last year's MAC tourney and it lost both of this year's regular season meetings. Motivated by those setbacks, I expect the Golden Flashes to get the job done this evening.

Revenge has been a strong angle to play with Kent State, considering it is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won these games by an average score of 70.7 to 62.2.

The Golden Flashes did not meet expectations this season and will be out for some serious payback here. Take Kent State.

4* Big 12 Tourney SMASH on Baylor +6.5
Motivated by a pair of disappointing performances against Kansas during the regular season, I expect Baylor to take the Jayhawks down to the wire this evening.

The high posted total isn't a good sign for the normally defensively sound Jayhawks as it indicates that the books expect Baylor to perform better at the offensive end than it did in the regular season meetings. Consider that Kansas is just 1-8 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. It has only won by an average of 2.4 points in these games.

The Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games away from home when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more to a foe. Take Baylor.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +3.5
This is a game the Suns want badly. They have lost 8 in a row to the Mavs, including all 3 this season, and were embarrassed with a 122-99 home loss the last time they squared off.

Motivation is rarely enough alone, so it's fortunate for us that Dallas has been struggling on the road. This really doesn't come as much of a surprise. Dallas was so good last season because of its bench, and it's not getting the same production from the second unit due to injuries and losing J.J. Barea. Dallas has lost 4 in a row on the road by an average of 6.8 points and one of those was a 5-point loss to lowly New Orleans.

The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home and haven't lost by more than 2 points in any of their last 7 home games.

The Suns played in OKC last night but shouldn't be gassed as they had 2 days' rest prior. In fact, the Suns are 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Gentry in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. They have won by an average score of 101.2 to 92.0 in this spot. We'll take the Suns.

5* NCAAB Game of the Year on Cal -4
Back-to-back losses to Colorado and Stanford cost Cal a Pac-12 title, and I have no doubt that simple fact isn't sitting well with the Bears. Motivated by those defeats, I expect Cal to be on a mission in the Pac-12 tourney. They'll especially take great pride in paying back rival Stanford.

Cal had defeated Stanford by double digits in back-to-back meetings and by at least 7 points in 5 of 6 meetings before enduring a 5-point loss to the Cardinal on March 4. The fact Stanford was plus-12 from 3-point range in that game was a fluke considering it hadn't been more than plus-9 in any of the previous five meetings. It was no more than plus-six in four of those.

Cal is the better team, and I don't expect it to allow Stanford to beat it with the long ball again.

Cal is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 when playing away from home after 2 or more consecutive losses, 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games away from home off 2 straight losses to conference rivals and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

In addition, Stanford is 0-6 ATS after covering the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

Lastly, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll take Cal.

4* MWC Tourney SMASH on Air Force +14.5
After getting massacred by 39 and 30 in the two regular season meetings, Air Force will be out to save face here. New Mexico, meanwhile, won't be able to help overlooking the Falcons.

Recent history suggests New Mexico isn't likely to put another beating on Air Force. Prior to this season, New Mexico hadn't won by more than 14 points in 4 straight meetings.

In addition, Air Force is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games away from home when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 11.1 points in this situation.

Also, the fact New Mexico enters off 3 straight overs bodes well for us. Consider that the Lobos are 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons, only winning by an average of 7.8 points in this situation. Take Air Force.

5* C-USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTEP -3.5
UTEP finished the regular season with 3 straight losses while Houston finished with 3 straight wins, but I'm confident the Miners are the better team.

UTEP crushed Houston by 20 points at home on Jan. 7 before losing to the Cougars on the road in OT on Jan. 28. I love the Miners' chances of covering this number on a neutral floor.

It is worth our while to consider that plays against underdogs that have successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season, are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These dogs have lost by an average of 10.1 points in this situation.

The Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 13-4 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a fatigued Boston squad that was pushed to OT last night.

The Celtics have won 5 in a row, with the last 4 coming at home, but I believe their luck is about to change on the road. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +6
There's no place like home for the Lakers, who are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road. The Lakers haven't won by more than 5 points away from home this season with those 6 wins coming by just 3.3 points on average. This tells us LA is overvalued tonight.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Pistons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points.

5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on George Washington +10
Motivated by back-to-back losses, including a 16-point defeat at Dayton last game, expect George Washington to give the Flyers a run for their money tonight.

One thing that has been an absolute must is fading Archie Miller's Dayton squad following a win or 15 or more. Doing so has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS mark all-time, and Dayton has lost these 6 contests by an average of 10.0 points.

In addition, GW is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 0.1 points in this situation. GW is also 14-4 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to fewer than 60 points. We'll take the points.

3* Conference Tourney SMASH on Maryland Eastern Shore +11
Maryland Eastern Shore fits into a system that's too good to ignore. Consider that Neutral court underdogs off a home loss of 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 25-6 ATS since 1997. That's an 80.6% success rate. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 1.5. points. We'll play by the numbers with MD Eastern Shore this afternoon.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +9.5
Out to end a 3-game skid, and out to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Denver, the Kings will be lacking no motivation this evening.

Sacramento has been a more than quality investment this season when checking in off 3 of more consecutive losses. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in these spots and is winning by an average of 0.7 points. In addition, the Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with a days' rest. We'll back the Kings in this highly motivated spot.

4* Conference Tourney SMASH on Western Illinois +8
Western Illinois won't be lacking any confidence tonight against an Oral Roberts squad it played to a 1-point game earlier this season.

The Golden Eagles have been overvalued all season, especially against team who average 33 of fewer rebounds per contest. They are 0-7 ATS vs. these teams and have only defeated them by an average of 6.3 points. It is also worth noting that the Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Summit League and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Leathernecks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Leathernecks are also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points as Western Illinois keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +4
The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot.

The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January.

Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers.

4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Florida +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at Kentucky last month, expect Florida to bounce back strong at home, where it is 16-1 on the season.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is fading the Gators in the underdog role. That's because they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Florida.

Kentucky is just 1-7 ATS when matched up against good shooting teams (making >=45% of their shots) this season, and 1-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Also, Florida is 19-8 ATS under coach Donovan after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 78 to 63.7 in this situation. The value clearly lies with Florida. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Hawaii +1
This is a tough scheduling spot for Utah State, which makes the long trip to Hawaii after just playing at San Jose State Thursday. The Warriors, meanwhile, who will be hungry to end a 4-game skid, have been at home for nearly a week. Expect a jetlagged performance from the Aggies tonight.

Utah State won at San Jose State, who is just 1-12 in the WAC, but it still can't be trusted away from home. Prior to that win, the Aggies had lost 4 in a row and 8 of 9 on the road.

Prior to Thursday's disappointing performance versus Idaho, Hawaii had won 3 of 4 at home, including an impressive 4-point victory over New Mexico State, who has a pair of double-digit wins over Utah State this season.

The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Aggies are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Hawaii. Also, the Warriors are a 100% perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Hawaii.

4* NCAAB Upset Special on Air Force +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 30-point loss to New Mexico and an 18-point defeat in the season's first meeting with Colorado State, expect Air Force to bounce back strong on senior day.

Air Force is a far more solid team than its record might lead you to believe. It has a home over San Diego State and its losses to Colorado, TCU and UNLV have come by 3 points or less.

Colorado State has been deadly at home but a pushover on the road. The Rams have lost 6 in a row away from home by an average of 14 points.

Plays on home teams as an underdog or pickem that are good defensively (allowing <=64 points/game on the season) after a blowout loss by 30 points or more are 26-5 ATS since 1997, including 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of .4 points. With this in mind, I love Air Force's chances of pulling off the upset.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Marshall -2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a 4-point loss at So. Miss in the season's first meeting, expect Marshall to bounce back strong today.

The consecutive losses are significant because coach Herrion's squads are 8-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. They have won these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.8.

Marshall is a better team than it has shown in C-USA play. We're talking about a team that played No. 2 Syracuse to a 6-point game on the road. The Thundering Herd are 12-4 at home on the season, and I expect them to show what they are truly capable of this afternoon.

So. Miss has lost 3 straight on the road to UTEP, Houston and UAB. If it can't beat UTEP or Houston on the road, it's going to have a very tough time against the Herd here.

The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Marshall.

5* Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Missouri State -2
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a pair of losses to Evansville, Missouri State will be lacking no motivation when it hits the floor tonight.

I have no doubt the value lies with Missouri State here and history is on our side. The fact Missouri State has endured 6 straight ATS defeats and Evansville has rattled off 4 straight ATS wins bodes extremely well for us. In fact, plays on favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, provided they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points.

Neither team has played since Feb. 25 but the extra time off figures to be more detrimental to the Purple Aces, who are just 2-10 ATS under coach Simmons when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. They have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

I really believe Missouri State is the better team, and I can't see it losing 3 times to Evansville in the same season. Lay the number.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +8.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 39-point loss to Chicago on Jan. 20, I expect Cleveland to cover this number behind an inspired performance.

Because Chicago won the first meeting so handily, I believe it will be much more concerned with its upcoming revenge matchup with Philadelphia.

The Cavs lost by 17 at New York Wednesday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9 points or more per game. We'll take the points.

4* Big East SMASH on Notre Dame -10.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Notre Dame to bounce back strong at home on senior night.

The Irish are 15-1 at home on the season with an average winning margin of 16.1 points in those games. They have won 5 straight at home in Big East play against the likes of Syracuse, Marquette, DePaul, Rutgers and West Virginia by an average of 15.8 points.

Providence has lost 7 of its last 8 on the road against Big East foes with that lone win coming against last place DePaul. These 7 losses have come by an average of 12.6 points.

Also, the Irish have won 8 in a row against Providence with 2 of the last 3 wins coming by 15 points or more.

Notre Dame needs a victory to assure itself a double-bye in the conference tournament, and it won't hold anything back.

4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Trail Blazers +5
Miami is being overvalued here as it has won 8 in a row and has the highest winning percentage in the East. History does not appear to be on Miami's side here as it is 0-9 ATS all-time under Spoelstra when checking in off 3 or more consecutive home wins. It is losing by an average 9.1 points in this situation.

The Blazers are a heck of a home team. They are 13-5 at the Rose Garden with an average winning margin of 12.7 points. 3 of their home losses have come to the Magic, Thunder and Clippers and none of those came by more than 4 points.

The Trail Blazers are entering off a SU and ATS loss at Denver but are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. We'll take the points.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC +7.5
Motivated by 7 consecutive losses and an embarrassing 28-point defeat at Washington last month, expect USC to save face by giving the Huskies a game.

Washington has been far from dominant on the road. The Huskies are 5-6 when playing away from home this season and none of those 5 wins have come by more than 6 points.

The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on San Jose State +4
Utah State won the first meeting at home handily, but I expect things to go much different for the Aggies on the road this evening.

Utah State is just 2-10 when playing away from home this season. It has lost 8 of its last 9 on the road with the lone win coming by just 4 points. The 8 losses have come by an average of 6.8 points.

The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by losses in the season's first two matchups with Portland, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight.

The Blazers won the season's first two meetings by 9 and 20 points but both of those games were in Portland. Home court has meant everything in this series with the home team covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Denver has won 6 in a row at home against the Blazers by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver. Lay the points.

4* Big East SMASH (ESPN2) on Cincinnati -1
Motivated by a 1-point loss at South Florida and with an embarrassing 17-point loss at Marquette earlier this month also stoking the fire, expect Cincy to come out on top tonight.

I believe odds makers are tipping their hand here by favoring unranked Cincy against 7th-ranked Marquette. The Bearcats have been terrific at home all season. They have won their last 4 at home by an average of 8.0 points.

If you're going to pick a day to back the Bearcats, Wednesday has been the day. Under coach Cronin, Cincy is 31-13 ATS in Wednesday games, winning them by an average score of 69.1 to 63.0. This stat is too good to ignore and says a lot about the early week preparation of Cronin.

It's also worth noting that the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take Cincy.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Kent State -2
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and further fueled by a 22-point beatdown at Ohio last month, expect Kent State to roll at home this evening.

One thing Kent State doesn't do is lose to the same team twice in the same season. In fact, it is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's winning by an average of 9.2 points in this situation.

In addition, the Golden Flashes has been a tremendous investment as small home chalk, going 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Bobcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem. Take Kent State.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Wyoming -7
This is a sandwich game for TCU, which is coming off a big win over New Mexico and has San Diego State on deck. Wyoming, who lost by 6 at TCU on Feb. 1, will be out for some serious revenge on senior night.

The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS in home games after being held to 65 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

In addition, the Cowboys are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points.

5* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota +9.5
Hungry to end a 5-game slide, and further fueled by a 7-point loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 9, expect Minnesota to give the Badgers a game this evening.

Wisconsin, which has split the last 6 meetings with Minnesota, hasn't defeated the Gophers by more than 9 points since 2008. It is clearly being overvalued here because it is coming off a big win over Ohio State. That win is significant because the Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. The Badgers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

The fact Minnesota enters off an embarrassing 19-point loss to Indiana also bodes well for us. Consider that plays on road teams as an underdog or pickem off an embarrassing home loss in which they were held to 60 points or less, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 75-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 9.2 points on average but have only lost by an average of 7.3. We'll take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Pistons +4
Motivated by losing the season's first 2 meetings by 23 and 21 points in Philadelphia, expect the Pistons to get some payback tonight.

Detroit has quietly won 10 of its last 12 ATS. Plus, it is 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. 2 of those losses came by just 3 and 4 points to Miami and San Antonio.

The struggling 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Detroit.

5* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +9
Kansas is in for a letdown tonight after coming back from a 19-point second half deficit to beat Missouri 87-86 in overtime Saturday to clinch at least a share of its eighth consecutive Big 12 regular-season title.

"I hate nothing more than losing to Missouri, but to me it wasn't about the last time we played," coach Bill Self said. "To me it was about this team winning its eighth straight championship. I'm not the most emotional guy, but that was as good as it gets."

It sounds to me like Self already feels like his team has accomplished something. The Jayhawks likely won't have the focus or drive to come away with a victory tonight. Even if they do show up, the Cowboys have an excellent opportunity to keep it within the number.

Oklahoma State is 11-3 at home this season with those 3 losses coming by just 6, 8 and 4 points respectively.

The Cowboys lost the season's first meeting by 13 at Kansas but are 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They have won by an average of 1.4 points in these games.

The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, they are 0-7 ATS all-time under coach Self when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games and 0-6 ATS all-time under Self in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games.

Kansas hasn't been able to expose teams that don't get a great deal of points off assists, which bodes well for us. It's also in our favor that Oklahoma State doesn't turn the ball over very much. Under coach Travis Ford, the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after 4 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. We'll take the points.

4* Big Ten SMASH on Illinois -5.5
Odds makers are begging for action on Iowa with this line but we won't oblige them. The Hawks have won back-to-back games at home while Illinois has dropped 6 in a row, but I fully expect the Illini to get off the snide this evening.

Iowa has not been the same team on the road, where it has dropped 5 in a row by an average of 15.8 points. And, the Hawkeyes have had absolutely no luck in Champagne, where they have lost 10 straight by an average of 13 points.

Illinois holds home wins over Ohio State and Michigan State so there's no questioning the potential of this team. I expect it all to come together for the Illini in this motivated spot.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Colorado +3
Motivated by an embarrassing 24-point loss to Stanford, which snapped a 10-game home winning streak, and further fueled by 7-point loss at Cal last month, expect Colorado to take care of business at home this evening.

Consider that all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 71-33 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 5-1 ATS on the season.

The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cal and have won 3 straight at home in the series by an average of 17.7 points. Bet the Buffs.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Cal State Northridge +6
Off back-to-back losses in which they were held to 49 and 61 points, and out to avenge an earlier loss to Irvine, expect the Matadors to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Northridge is a perfect 6-0 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in consecutive games the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 75.4 to 63.9 in this situation. In addition, the Matadors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Anteaters are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Prior to this season's first meeting when the Matadors shot just 34% and lost by 9, they had either won or lost by 5 points or less in 4 straight matchups with the Anteaters. We'll take the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Illinois-Chicago +3
Illinois Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses SU and ATS but that won't keep me away. You see, the Flames are a perfect 7-0 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Illinois Chicago defeated Green Bay by 2 points at home last season as a 2-point dog and it won by 7 at home in 2010 as a 4-point dog. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.

4* Early Annihilator on Ole Miss -3.5
Off 3 straight losses to Vandy, Kentucky and Tennessee, expect Ole Miss to bounce back strong at home against an LSU squad that has lost 5 of its last 6 on the highway.

This is a game the Rebels want badly because they were embarrassed (81-55) at LSU last month. Playing at home figures to treat the Rebs better considering they have won their last 2 and 4 of their last 5 at home against the Tigers.

Ole Miss is 20-6 ATS all-time under coach Kennedy in home games when matched up against a good team with a winning percentage between 60 and 80% after 15 or more games into the season. The Rebels have won these games by an average score of 75.4 to 70.7. We'll lay the points.

5* NCAAB *Friday Night Feast* on Fairfield +8
Since losing 71-62 at home to Iona on Jan. 27, the defending MAAC champs have been on a mission. They have won 7 straight in conference play by an average of 14.4 points. This run includes an impressive 6-point home win over Manhattan and an even more impressive 17-point road win over Loyola Maryland. With a chance to pull even with Iona for first place in the league, I expect an inspired effort from the Stags this evening.

The first meeting between these two was closer than the final score might lead you to believe. Despite facing a 19-point half time deficit, Fairfield rallied to pull within 4 points with 2:39 remaining. They missed their final 3 shots while the Gaels connected on 5 of 6 free throws to earn the 9-point victory. I don't see the Stags falling behind big again, which gives them an excellent opportunity to cover this generous number.

Coach Sydney Johnson's teams are 14-4 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. In addition, his squads are 15-5 ATS when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent and 12-3 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to a foe.

The Stags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the MAAC. The Gaels are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -8.5
This is a statement game for Miami. Linsanity has taken the focus away from the best team in the East, and I expect LeBron James and company to get everyone's attention with an impressive win this evening.

Miami has defeated Indiana, San Antonio, the LA Lakers, Philadelphia and Orlando by double digits at home and these are all teams I believe to be better than the Knicks.

The Heat defeated the Knicks by 10 points at home last month. That was before Linsanity and Carmelo Anthony didn't play but the Knicks held a 48-point advantage from 3-point range in that game. It will take a similar shooting display for New York to keep this one close and I don't see it happening.

Lin has been a great story but Miami has the horses to cause him major problems. Turnovers have been an issue for him, and Miami turns turnovers into fastbreak points.

The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. Take Miami.

4* SEC SMASH on Arkansas -2
After suffering their first home loss in SEC play - an embarrassing 30-point setback against Florida - the Hogs will be hungry tonight.

Right away one has to like the fact that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (Arkansas in this case) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games and after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more - are 43-14 ATS since 1997. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.

In addition, Arkansas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Plus, the Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take the Razorbacks.

5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 9-point loss at South Alabama earlier this month, expect FAU to roll at home tonight.

The Jaguars enter having won 3 in a row in conference play, and that doesn't bode well for them. Under coach Arrow, they are just 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins and 2-9 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.

It is extremely significant that FAU averages 70.1 point at home and S. Alabama gives up 71.8 points on the road. That's because the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these games by an average of 13.7 points. Lay the points.

4* Big Ten SMASH on Minnesota +5.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and an embarrassing 16-point loss at Michigan State last month, expect Minnesota to take the Spartans down to the wire tonight.

Michigan State looks to be the class of the Big Ten, but it hasn't proven it can be trusted laying points on the road. The Spartans were fortunate to win at Wisconsin and have losses at Northwestern, Michigan and Illinois. In fact, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +6
The Bobcats lost by 22 points at Indiana on Jan. 7 and by 35 points at Indiana on Sunday. The Bobcats haven't played since, and you can bet they'll be out for some serious revenge on their home floor tonight.

Charlotte catches the Pacers at a good time as they just played an overtime game last night. The Pacers are a lousy 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Look for Charlotte to take Indiana down to the wire.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Buffalo -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Ohio, expect Buffalo to bounce back strong at home where it has won 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points.

Ohio has struggled on the road where it has dropped 4 of its last 5 with those 4 losses coming by an average of 8.0 points. Its lone win during this stretch came against a Northern Illinois squad that is 3-22. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats went 0-5 ATS in these games.

The Bulls are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Trail Blazers -3.5
Portland, which is 12-5 at home on the season, has been one of the toughest home teams in the league for years. That's something the Spurs know all too well. San Antonio has lost 6 straight at the Rose Garden with those losses coming by an average of 8.2 points.

The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 in the series and 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Portland. Also, the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

The Blazers were kicked by 16 in San Antonio last month but that won't keep me off them here. Consider that Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to 85 points or less. It has won by an average score of 102.6 to 90.0 in this situation.

Last night's SU and ATS loss to the Lakers also bodes well for us. After all, the Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. They are also 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Colorado State +6
The Rams were crushed 85-52 at New Mexico last month, but I like their chances at revenge tonight.

Colorado State, which has won its last 11 at home and defeated the Lobos at home last season, is 8-1 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won these games by an average of 10.0 points.

It is also worth noting that Colorado State has either won or lost by 6 points or less to the Lobos in 5 of its last 6 home games in the series. We'll take the points.

5* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi State +9
Off 3 consecutive defeats and with the No. 1 team in the country in town, expect maximum effort from Mississippi State this evening.

Kentucky has needed overtime to win the previous two meetings between these teams, and the last seven games in the series have been decided by an average of 4.7 points.

Also, Mississippi State has won 13 of its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming in overtime to Georgia.

The Bulldogs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off 2 or more consecutive road losses, winning by an average score of 73.1 to 65.6 in this situation. The Bulldogs are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +3.5
Look for the Spurs' 10-game win streak to come to an end in Utah tonight.

The Jazz are 12-5 at home on the season where they have key wins over the 76ers, Trail Blazers, Clippers and Lakers. They have also lost at home to the Lakers, Clippers and Mavs by 3 points or less.

The Spurs have shown they can't be trusted laying points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Utah.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak in the series, expect the Wizards to play some inspired basketball this evening.

The Suns are coming off a big revenge win over the Lakers last night and very likely won't give the Wizards enough respect here. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Washington, which has had 2 full days of rest, will be the fresher team tonight.

The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against an opponent with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Suns have only won these games by an average of 0.1 points.

It's also worth noting that the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Hornets +11.5
New Orleans, which enters this matchup with plenty of momentum following 3 straight wins, will be out for some serious revenge against the Thunder, who have won the season's first 2 meetings.

This is not an ideal spot for Oklahoma City, which will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back (against a team that has had 2 days of rest) after getting pushed to overtime yesterday. New Orleans should be the fresher side without question.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenging for a road loss to an opponent, well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 16-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. Take New Orleans.

4* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Suns +3
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 111-99 loss at L.A. Friday, I expect the Suns to bounce back strong tonight.

The Lakers have really struggled on the road, going 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and even 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Two things happened in Friday's meeting that I don't expect to happen tonight. Kobe Bryant went off for an efficient 36 points (14-of-25 shooting) and Steve Nash committed a season-worst seven turnovers. Expect the Suns to do a much better job on Bryant and Nash to take better care of the basketball. The result should be a Phoenix victory.

The Suns will make Kobe take more shots to get his. Also, Nash has an opportunity to have a big game. The Lakers typically struggle against teams with good point guards.