Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5
The Bucks are playing good basketball, but we can't forget that they are 7 games below .500 on the road and the Clippers are still 3 games above .500 at home. Plus, the Bucks are 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and just 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup in Los Angeles. You also have to love the fact that plays on home underdogs, cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, against an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, are 59-25 ATS since 1996, 20-7 ATS the last 5 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. We have seen 5.3-point underdog on average with this system and they are only losing by an average of 1.1 points. I also like that the Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We'll take the home dog.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Boston +7.5
Oregon State is a great against the spread team, and we've cashed in on the Beavers plenty this season, but now is the time to go against them. Oregon State really slows down the pace of the game. As a result, it is only averaging 59.7 ppg on the season. In other words, it's difficult to win by large margins when playing this way. So it should come as no surprise that the Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We saw Boston play K-State to a 10-point game earlier this season, and it has defeated a very good Northeastern team, so there is some talent on this squad. The Terriers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. We'll take the points tonight.

3* NIT Annihilator (ESPNU) on Stony Brook +7
Illinois saw its bubble burst when it lost to Ohio State in double-OT in the Big Ten tourney. This Illinois team looked like a lock for the Big Dance until it lost 6 of its last 8 games. No matter how hard Bruce Weber might try, it's going to be hard for him to get his team motivated to play this basketball game. In addition, I'm always leery of Illinois laying points since it is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite. I'm especially leery when we're talking this many points as the Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, Illinois is only 2-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Stony Brook had its sights set on the NCAA Tourney as well, but it will have no trouble getting up for a home game against a major conference team. We'll take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Kings UNDER 206
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA), tired team playing its 3rd road game in 5 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 130-82 since 1996, including 63-33 the last 3 seasons. The Lakers just played a fast-paced game in Golden State last night so they aren't going to have the energy to run and gun again here. Expect the Lakers to slow the pace as much as possible, operating in the half court offensively. The Lakers are also 24-11 Under when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 199.8 points scored in the games on average. The Under is also 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll bet the Under.

3* NIT Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on UNC -8.5
William & Mary has had some very good wins this season, but I don't like its chances tonight. The Tar Heels are way more athletic with a lot more size. They should dominate the boards and really hurt the Tribe in the paint as well as in transition. It's been an embarrassing season for UNC, and the last thing they want is to take an embarrassing loss to school like W&M on national TV. It's been a struggle for Roy Williams this season, but he should have his boys ready to play tonight. The fact that W&M has some quality wins will only make it easier for Williams to get his boys to take this one seriously. W&M is a team that really depends on the 3-point shot, but I don't anticipate the Tribe shooting a high percentage. UNC's quickness in closeouts and their length won't allow W&M to get as many clean looks as they will need. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number.

3* Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on Ark Pine Bluff +4.5
I really can't justify laying the points here when you consider how awful Winthrop is offensively. The Eagles only shoot 38.3% from the floor, and just 25.5% from beyond the arc. Ark Pine Bluff started the season 0-11 as it played 11 straight road games against schools such as UTEP, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Kansas State. These early season losses paid dividends down the stretch when Golden Lions won their conference tournament, and I expect them to pay off in this play-in game as well. Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (Winthrop), poor offensive team scoring 64 or fewer points per game on the season, after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games, are 40-17 ATS since 1997, 24-9 ATS the last 5 seasons and 17-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. The favorite has been favored by 5.3 points on average in these games but is only winning by an average of 0.7 points. Also, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (APB), after playing a game where both it and its opponents scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 73-33 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Golden Lions here.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout (ESPN) on Warriors +8
The Warriors have quietly covered the spread in 3 straight, 6 of their last 8 and 10 of their last 15. Playing Portland to a 5-point game and defeating Toronto by double digits in their last 2 comes as no surprise as the Warriors are healthier than they've been in a long time with Corey Maggette and Monta Ellis back in the lineup. With this being a division game, and with it being against the best team in the West, you can bet the Warriors will be pumped up. In fact, they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. They are 8-1 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game this season, only losing to these teams by 4.7 points on average. They are also 17-5 ATS versus other up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game this season, only losing to these teams by .3 points on average. The Lakers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Lakers have struggled to put teams away on the road and we anticipate that being the case again this evening.

4* Major Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on 76ers -3.5
After a completely dominant performance against the Mavs Saturday, this is a natural letdown spot for the Knicks. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be hungry to avenge yesterday's loss to Miami and a 1-point home heartbreaker to the Knicks earlier this year. The Knicks are only 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. The Knicks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and 15-31 ATS in their last 46 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, with all 8 of those wins coming by 5 points or more, and with 6 of them coming by double figures. Lay the number.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Jazz +1.5
The Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in more than two months and I don't expect that streak to end today. They will be especially motivated this evening against a team that defeated them in both previous meetings this season, including a 1-point heartbreaker the last time they met. Besides being a good bounce back team from a straight up standpoint, the Jazz are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. They are are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, Utah is 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season, winning these games by an average score of 107.2 to 97.3. It is also 17-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, winning in these spot by an average score of 104.7 to 95.5. Take the Jazz.

3* NBA Early Annihilator on Pacers +9.5
After an embarrassing loss to the Celtics, and after 3 prior defeats to the Bucks this season, expect the Pacers to be very hungry here. The Pacers have played the Bucks to 3 and 2 point games in two of their 3 defeats so I think we are getting a really good line here. Right away, I love the fact that plays against favorites, an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where it and its opponents scored 95 points or less, are 23-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The underdog is only losing by an average of .3 points in these games while being faced with an average pointspread of 7.6. It is also worth noting that Indiana is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.6 to 98.8. The Bucks are rolling right now and they are being overvalued because of it. Expect the Pacers to keep this one close.

4* Major Sunday Conference Tourney *BEST BET* (ABC) on Mississippi State +8
According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Mississippi State is still on the first five out list in terms of the NCAA Tourney. While I think the Bulldogs are deserving of a bid, and they certainly feel they have done enough, now is not the time to leave any doubt in the mind of the committee by getting blown out here. Expect Mississippi State, which took Kentucky to OT during the regular season, to give the Wildcats all they want and more again to solidify their spot in the Big Dance. I really like the Bulldogs catching this many points as they are an impressive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. The public is all over Kentucky here after its dominant win Saturday, but now is actually the time to go against the Wildcats as they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Mississippi State is also 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.8 to 67.8. I like the experience of the Bulldogs in this big game as well. Take the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +12.5
This might be Washington's 3rd game in 3 nights, but that actually plays in our favor here as it is causing odds makers to severely undervalue this team. Washington may only be 12-21 at home, but it is only losing those games by an average of 2.6 points. Orlando is 19-14 on the road, but it is only winning those games by 2.2 points on average. So I'd say we are getting some pretty good value with the Wizards here. Plus, Washington has proven that it shows up against the Magic and should be even more motivated to do so after a poor performance against Detroit. The Wizards have won both meetings this season and haven't lost by more than 9 points in the last 4. It also plays to our favor that Orlando has a game tomorrow against a better Bobcats team. A win will suffice for the Magic here while staying fresh for tomorrow's contest. So there

5* Big 12 Tourney Game of the Year (ESPN) on Kansas State +5.5
Kansas State wants this one bad! The Wildcats gave the Jayhawks all they wanted and more in the season's first meeting, losing by just 2 points in overtime. The second meeting, at Kansas, saw the Jayhawks shoot out of their minds in a convincing win. That win actually plays in our favor here though. Not only does a loss like that really motivate the losing team, especially one as good as K-State, but it also forces odds makers to increase the point spread. I just don't think Kansas is 6 points better on a neutral floor, not with the motivation that K-State has after two prior defeats. Kansas has been overvalued all season because of the betting attention that the No. 1 team in the country receives. It's an easy way for the books to make money. Jack up the line on Kansas and collect when they don't cover the spread. In fact, the Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Wildcats have been the better teams to back. They are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall, 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. We'll take the points.

3* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on Richmond +4
This is a big time revenge spot for Richmond, which lost by 2 points in double-OT to Xavier earlier this season. We successfully played on Xavier for our Conference Tournament Game of the Year yesterday as the Musketeers were looking to exact revenge on Dayton. Today, we'll go against Xavier as Richmond should be the more motivated team. Right away, I love the fact that the Spiders are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Spiders are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Richmond should most definitely show up today. We'll take the points.

4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.

5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.

5* Pac-10 Tourney Game of the Year (FSN) on Oregon State +9
The Beavers will be out for revenge tonight after losing by 6 and 12 points to Washington during the regular season. Oregon State has to be excited to get another crack at the Huskies with a chance to burst their bubble. Right away, I love that Oregon State is 15-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, winning these games by an average score of 60.8 to 59.5. And that's not all. The Beavers are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Huskies are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Beavers and the points.

3* MWC Tourney SMASH on TCU +16.5
BYU just defeated TCU by 30 points in its last game so it's going to be hard for the Cougars to be as focused as need be to cover this large number tonight. The thing to note about that 30-point defeat is that TCU had just given conference champion New Mexico a scare the game before. The Horned Frogs obviously hadn't recovered yet from such an emotionally draining loss. After getting completely embarrassed by BYU, expect TCU to show up in a big way tonight. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Plus, plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points; an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, and after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more, are 60-26 ATS since 1997. The favorite is only winning by an average of 12.4 points in these games. Take TCU.

3* Thursday Night NBA SMASH on Hawks -7
Off back-to-back defeats, including one to the lowly Knicks, expect the Hawks to respond with a big win in Washington tonight. Winning in Washington has been no problem for the Hawks as they are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS at Washington over the last 3 seasons. Plus, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record, are 30-10 ATS the last 5 seasons, winning these games by 9.2 points on average. In addition, Atlanta is on a 16-4 ATS run as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, winning in these spots by 14.4 points on average. We'll lay the points.

3* 28-0 ATS NBA SMASH on Nets +11.5
I stayed away from the Nets as much as possible this season, but now there is starting to be some value in playing them. This is a team that does not want to go down in the history books as the worst ever so they are playing hard right now. As a result, they have covered the spread in 3 straight games. The Mavs are extremely banged up. Terry is out for sure and Barea, Haywood and Dampier all could miss as well. Health is the most important thing this time of year so don't expect the Mavs to play a bunch of banged up guys big minutes just to blowout the worst team in the NBA. Dallas will be content with just squeaking by with a "W" in this spot. With Dallas lacking guard depth due to injuries, look for Harris, the former Mav, to have a big game tonight. Jason Kidd just doesn't have the foot speed to stay with him, especially if he has to play big minutes. The numbers are in our favor as well. The Nets are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Mavericks are 3-22-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. We'll take the points.

3* Conference Tourney Line Mistake on Rice +14.5
Rice finished the season with 7 straight defeats so it will be extremely motivated as it looks to play spoiler tonight. Plus, the Owls will not be lacking any confidence after playing Tulsa to a 4-point game earlier this season. With these things in mind, I feel odds makers are asking too much of Tulsa tonight, especially when you consider that they have not won by more than 14 points since January 16th. The Golden Hurricane are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Conference USA, 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Meanwhile, the Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. We'll take the points.

5* NEC Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on Robert Morris +4.5
With revenge on the mind for an earlier season loss, and with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line, I'll take Robert Morris and the points this evening. Robert Morris appeared to have the league title in the bag until it dropped 2 of its last 3 conference games to Quinnipiac and Mount St. Mary's. Last game, Robert Morris avenged its loss to Mount St. Mary's with an 80-62 blowout win, and I expect the Colonials to win this one outright tonight. Mount St. Mary's had come into the conference tourney as the hottest team in the league, but Robert Morris dominated. You know how the old saying goes, "defense wins championships", and Robert Morris is the more capable defensive team. The Colonials have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Quinnipiac may have the home court advantage here, but I don't think it will be enough. Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 52-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take Robert Morris and the points.

5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5
I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight!

3* A-10 Tourney Annihilator on UMass +9.5
Really think UMass isn't getting enough respect tonight when you consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, are 32-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. And there's more, the 49ers are just 8-26 ATS in their last 34 vs. the Atlantic 10, 49ers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Minutemen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Last thing, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Big East Tourney *BEST BET* (ESPN U) on Providence +6.5
I really like Providence catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Friars enter this contest having lost 10 in a row so they will be very hungry. On top of that, they will be a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose here. Seton Hall, who has a chance to play itself into the NCAAB Tournament is facing far more pressure. These two teams just played each other Saturday with Seton Hall coming out on top by 12 points, but it is an extremely difficult task to win again in these kind of spots. The losing team is usually hungrier and odds makers usually overvalued the winning team as that is the one the public tends to flock to. Furthermore, it's hard to justify laying points with Seton Hall when you consider that the Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Meanwhile, the Friars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Providence.

4* Major NBA "Total" Public Massacre on Mavericks/Timberwolves UNDER 207
The public money is coming in on the Over in this matchup tonight because Dallas has played to the Over in 6 of its last 7 and Minnesota in 3 straight. Also, we have seen high-scoring affairs the last two times these teams have faced off. But I don't expect these trends to hold up tonight. The Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two sides, including a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. Furthermore, Dallas is extremely tired right now having played a ton of games in few days since the All-Star break. Also, the average total score in Mavs road games this season is 199.7 points. In T-Wolves home games, it's 199.1 points. These two teams have played much lower scoring games in Minnesota and we expect this trend to continue tonight.

4* Major Conference Tourney Blowout on Old Dominion -9
It's been a good run for William & Mary, but I expect it to come to an end tonight. After getting a major scare from VCU, look for the Monarchs to return to the court with more hunger and more focus tonight. It is not a certainty that Old Dominion will make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tourney tonight so they should not be lacking any motivation. The Monarchs have won both games with W&M this season. They won by 3 at W&M and by 19 at home. On a neutral floor today, look for the Monarchs to flex their muscles and show their superiority. I feel very comfortable laying this number when you consider that the Monarchs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Tribe are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Lay the number.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Blazers +7
Expect the rested Blazers (haven't played since Mar. 3), winners of 5 of their last 6 SU & ATS, to play really well against their division rival tonight. While Denver is 27-5 at home this season, it is only 16-15-1 ATS in those games. Portland is 17-14 on the road, but a strong 20-10-1 ATS in those games. While Portland is rested, Denver is not. Carmelo has been receiving additional intravenous fluids because he's been so run down. In fact, Denver is only 5-13 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season, only winning in these spots 2.7 points on average. I also like that Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Trail Blazers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

3* Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER 202.5
These two teams just played Tuesday in OKC and we saw them combine for 220 points. The Thunder gave up 107 points in that game and then they gave up 119 to Denver the next night. Kevin Durant spoke about how disappointed he was with the team's defensive effort in those games, and rightfully so, as the Thunder have only been allowing 96.4 points this season. They stepped up against the Clippers Friday, holding them to just 87 points, and I expect them to bring the "D" again tonight. Prior to Tuesday's encounter, the three previous meetings had all come in Under 200 points. Plus, the Kings have scored 98 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games so their offense clearly isn't what it was prior to trading Kevin Martin. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams. Take the Under.

4* Major Conference Tourney Blowout on Gonzaga -12
Loyola Marymount has really played well down the stretch, but it finds itself in a very tough spot tonight. It has come up with a pair of tough wins the last 2 days, but now it must face an extremely fresh Gonzaga squad that hasn't played since March 2. On top of this, Gonzaga has a little added motivation here because it lost to Loyola last month after crushing the Lions by 16 in the season's first matchup. Loyola may be able to hang around in the first half, but in the second, I just can't see its legs being there. Plus, the Bulldogs are also playing for NCAA Tournament seeding so they'll be looking to impress the committee for a final time in this conference tourney. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the number.

3* SMASH (ESPN) on Duke -14.5
It's senior night, it's a rivalry game, Duke is coming off a loss, and it needs this one to ensure itself of at least a share of the ACC regular season title. We haven't seen the Blue Devils in a more motivated spot all season so I expect them to really put the hurt on the Tar Heels here. An important thing to note is the total range as Duke is 8-1 ATS in home games where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 86.6 to 55.9 believe it or not. It's also important to note that Duke is 8-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning these games by an average score of 83.4 to 58.1. The Blue Devils are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll lay the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Cavs -3.5
After coming out sluggish last night, expect the Cavs to show up against a hot Milwaukee Bucks team that gave them a run for their money when they last faced off in December. Milwaukee is playing its best basketball of the season, but I feel comfortable laying this number when you consider that it has a 17-point loss to Orlando and a 4-point loss to Atlanta during this hot streak. Plus, Cleveland has won 5 of the last 6 meetings by 6 or more points with the last 3 at Milwaukee coming by 8 or more points. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Lay the points.

5* 2010 NCAAB Game of the Year on Tulsa +7.5
This is a big revenge game for Tulsa after falling to Memphis earlier this season. A major key here is Tulsa's rebounding edge. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds per game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Memphis is 0-8 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. In addition, Memphis is just 6-15 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite. The Golden Hurricane want this one bad, so much so that they nearly got caught looking ahead last game. No matter how good some of the Tulsa teams have been in recent years, they have all played second fiddle to Memphis. Now, I really believe Tulsa is the better team. I really expect Tulsa to win this game outright as a 7.5-point dog, and that's why I have made the Golden Hurricane my Game of the Year. Best of Luck.

5* WCC Game of the Year on Santa Clara +4
Santa Clara and San Diego both finished 3-11 in WCC play, splitting during the regular season, but I really believe Santa Clara is the better team playing better basketball right now. And it should be the hungrier team tonight as it looks to snap a 3-game skid. With this is mind, I just can't justify San Diego as a 4-point favorite. In fact, I really believe the wrong team is favored here. First off, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two schools. Secondly, the Toreros are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. the WCC, 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Thirdly, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Friday Night NBA Blowout on Thunder -4.5
Off their worst loss of the season, look for the Thunder to be motivated enough to put the hurt on the Clippers tonight. The Thunder have used motivation very well. In fact, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss period. In other words, this is a great bounce back team. The Clippers are in a similar situation, coming off a blowout loss to Phoenix, but they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. On top of this, the Thunder will be out to avenge a loss to the Clippers the last time these two teams met, and plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 36-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, good team outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 34-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 6-1 ATS this season. Lay the points.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Hornets +8
Off 3 straight defeats, the Hornets will be extremely hungry tonight, especially since one of those defeats was to the Spurs on Monday. The Spurs haven't played since that Monday game, but that could prove to be too much time off when you consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. It's also hard to lay this many points with the Spurs when you consider that they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It makes it even more difficult to lay those points when you see that the Hornets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, one day of rest is usually sufficient for the Hornets as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll take the points.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Jazz +1.5
Rarely does Utah ever lose 2 in a row. In fact, the Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in 2 months. Utah will be the fresher team tonight, having not played since Monday (Phoenix just played last night). The Jazz will also be extremely motivated to avenge a loss to the lowly Clippers in their last game. Head-to-head, the Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Phoenix. As I already mentioned, they are a great bounce back team and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss as a result. The Jazz are also 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Another thing that can't go unmentioned here is how much better Utah has been than Phoenix when playing on Thursday nights, a night that NBA teams don't play on often. The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games while the Suns are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. We'll take Utah tonight.

5* MVC Game of the Year on Evansville +9.5
Evansville may have finished in last place in the Valley during the regular season, but it wasn't playing like a last place team down the stretch. The Aces recorded wins over 2nd place finisher Wichita State and over conference champion Northern Iowa. In other words, this is not the same team that Missouri State defeated by 10 points at home on Jan. 27th. One big reason I feel good about taking the points is because Missouri State doesn't force a lot of turnovers, and therefore doesn't score many points off turnovers. In fact, the Bears are 0-8 ATS after going 5 straight games without forcing an opponent to commit more than 14 turnovers. Missouri State has also struggled to cover the number in neutral site contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite period. You also have to like that the Purple Aces are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.

3* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN 2) on Penn State +13
Michigan State may be 13-2 at home this season, but it is only 4-10 ATS in its home lined games. In fact, Michigan State hasn't defeated anyone at home by more than 10 points in Big Ten play this season. We find the Spartans in a letdown spot tonight as well after a big revenge win over Purdue. Penn State is playing its best basketball off the season, winning 3 of its last 4 games with 2 of those wins coming on the road. The fact of the matter is Penn State has been an exceptional road team from a point spread standpoint. Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, only losing by an average score of 64 to 66.3. Michigan State may be a strong rebounding team, but Penn State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these games by an average score of 68.5 to 69.2. Penn State is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season while Michigan State is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. The Spartans are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll take the points tonight.

5* MWC Game of the Month on TCU +16
I feel there is some serious line value with TCU tonight when you consider that New Mexico is only winning by an average of 13.8 points at home this season. Plus, it's going to be hard for the Lobos to get up for this one after such an emotional win over BYU. On top of that, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 7 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), are 59-18 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 10-1 ATS this season. The favorite has been favored by an average of 17.8 points in these games but is only winning by an average of 12.8. We'll take the points as TCU shows up in a big way trying to knock off the top dog in the conference.

5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +2
I really believe Memphis is the better team and it will be hungry to prove it after 2 prior losses to the Hornets this season. In the latest matchup between these two teams, New Orleans overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit to win 109-102 in overtime. In the teams' first matchup this season, New Orleans rallied from a nine-point deficit and won 113-111 at home on James Posey's layup with 1.1 seconds left. Those two losses, which should have been wins, have to be sitting very sour with the Grizzlies. They will be the driving force for a Memphis win this evening. Memphis has won 4 straight on the road. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Plus, the Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Memphis.

3* C-USA Cash Cow on Tulsa -9
Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games, are 23-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. On average this system has seen the favorite win by an average of 16.6 points. SMU was just a 13.5-point dog at Memphis, at team Tulsa is very comparable to, so I feel we are getting some good line value here. After finally ending its 4-game skid, expect Tulsa to use its momentum to really hammer SMU on senior night. Lay the points.

5* 2010 Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +9.5
A win ensures Ohio State the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tourney and at least a share of the regular season conference championship so the Buckeyes shouldn't be lacking motivation. However, Illinois will be extremely motivated as well, and with that in mind, odds makers are spotting the Illini too many points. The Illini can earn a first round bye in the Big Ten tourney with a win tonight. But their biggest motivation is that a win will likely ensure them a place in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have dropped 3 of 4, including a 19-point embarrassing loss to the Buckeyes, to find themselves on the bubble. Illinois already has wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. It is a much better team than it has showed recently, and I expect the Illini to give the Buckeyes all they want and more tonight. Illinois has shot very poorly in the games it has lost recently and is coming off a dismal 31.9% shooting effort. But that actually bodes well for us here as Illinois is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 0-7 ATS in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Take Illinois and the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Thunder UNDER 203
We've seen each of the last three meetings between these two teams coming in under the number with scores of 197, 191 and 199, and I'm expecting this one to stay under 200 as well. OKC is coming off a blowout win over Toronto, and it has Denver up next, but I don't believe the Thunder will get caught looking ahead here because they will be looking to avenge a loss to Sacramento. That means we can expect to see Oklahoma City's rock solid defense that is only allowing 95.2 ppg at home. The Kings have really struggled to score on the road, tallying scores of just 98, 89 and 88 in their last 3 road games. In fact, the Kings have been held to 98 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games and the Under is 5-2 in those games as a result. Sac is 9-1 Under on Tuesday nights this season and 12-3 Under in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Thunder's last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Under.

3* SEC SMASH on Florida -3
I'll take the unranked home favorite in this one as I believe odds makers are tipping their hand. Vandy has lost 8 straight at Florida and I don't see this streak coming to an end tonight. The Gators know they still have some work to do to leave absolutely no doubt in the minds of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, especially after a bad loss to Georgia. History is on our side tonight as well when you consider that plays on a home team off an upset loss to a conference rival against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, are 60-27 ATS since 1997 and 31-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Gators are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also worth noting that Vandy is 0-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. This is significant because Vandy is a pretty good free throw shooting team and Florida won't give them as many opportunities from the line. Take Florida.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Texas -13
This may seem like quite a big number at first glance, but the Sooners have lost by at least 13 points in 3 of their last 4 road games. Plus, Texas will be extremely motivated in this spot for several reasons. First off, it's senior night. Secondly, the Longhorns are coming off a poor performance against Texas A&M. Lastly, the Horns will be looking to avenge a loss at Oklahoma last month. This situation is very similar to one Texas was in back on Feb. 13. The Horns had just played poorly against Kansas and they went out and destroyed Nebraska by 40 points. The Sooners are just 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Texas. OU is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week this season, losing in these spot by an average of 14.8 points. Texas is on a 17-6 ATS run in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week, winning in these spots by 16.3 points on average. It is also a tremendous 11-1 ATS in home games where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by 19.3 points on average. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Bobcats -2
This is a tough spot for the Mavs, who just played last night, and will be playing their 9th game in 14 days. The Bobcats find themselves in a much better spot, playing at home where they are an impressive 20-7 this season, and playing with 2 full days of rest. Charlotte will also be looking for a little bit of revenge here after falling at Dallas by 1 point in December. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against underdogs playing on back-to-back days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 164-109 the last 5 seasons (60.1%). You also have to like the fact that Charlotte is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 97.8 to 90.6. The Bobcats are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing without any days rest. We'll take the Bobcats at home tonight.

5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hornets +8
New Orleans has showed up against elite competition. Just this month, we've seen the Hornets play the Magic to a 6-point game at Orlando to cover as a 9.5-point dog. We just saw the Hornets beat the Magic outright as a 5-point dog Friday. We have also seen them defeat the Celtics here recently and cover the number against the Cavs. The Hornets are very confident right now, even without Chris Paul, because of how well Darren Collison is playing. Plus, New Orleans has played the Mavs extremely tough, having won 8 of the last 11 meetings. You also have to like the fact that New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Bower. The Hornets are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days rest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

4* Major Big Ten Bomb on Indiana +6
The Hoosiers may enter having lost 9 in a row, but I just can't justify Iowa laying this many points, especially since Indiana will be hungry to avenge an earlier season home loss to the Hawkeyes. This has been a matchup dominated by the dog as the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. And the Hawks have proven they can't be trusted as a home favorite as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in the role. The odds are certainly in Indiana's favor when you consider that road teams, after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season, are 72-30 ATS since 1997, 26-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. Indiana knows this is its chance to end its losing streak and should come out with a lot or energy today. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Lakers -6
This is a statement game for LA, which has been crushed by the Nuggets by double digits twice already this season. While the Nuggets were able to win in LA earlier this month, that was an aberration as the Nuggets are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. A big key here will be the depleted energy level of the Nuggets, which have played a lot of games in few days. In fact, Denver is just 3-11 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Lakers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and I look for them to put it on the Nuggets here.

5* NCAAB ESPN Game of the Year on Villanova +5.5
We'll take Villanova and the points today as its big game experience and experienced back court, led by Scottie Reynolds, gives the Wildcats the edge. Nova has won 3 straight in this series and 5 of the last 6. From a point spread perspective, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Syracuse and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Nova has the type of guards that can really cause problems for the Cuse zone with their penetration and ability to knocks down threes. And that's why we've seen the Wildcats enjoy success against the Orange. With first place on the line, I just can't see Villanova getting beat by more than 5 points. And frankly, I can't see it getting beat period. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll take them in that role here today.

5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Pacers -1.5
With Joakim Noah doubtful this evening, and with Indiana out for revenge after losing at Chicago this week, we'll take the rested Pacers in this revenge spot against a Bulls team that just played an emotionally and physically draining OT game last night. Right away, you have to like the Pacers when you consider that plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 64-32 ATS since 1996. The last time Indiana played the same team twice in the same week, it lost the first game (by 15 at Toronto) but then responded with a 15-point win in the second game. We'll lay the points here as I like Indiana by double digits.

4* Major NCAAB *Early Blowout* on Colorado -4
After getting absolutely hammered by Mizzou, the Buffs will be extremely motivated today, especially since they will be looking to avenge a 1-point loss at Iowa State last month. Iowa State is coming off a conference win and that figures to be good news as the Cyclones are 0-6 ATS following a conference win over the last 2 seasons. What's even more shocking is that the Cyclones are losing by an average score of 63.8 to 82.2 in these spots. Iowa State is 3-8 away from home this season while the Buffs are 11-3 on their home floor. Colorado is 2-0 SU & ATS in its last 2 home meetings against ISU and it is 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12. Also, under coach McDermott, Iowa State is on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games off a conference win, losing in these spots by an average score of 60.1 to 79.1. The Buffaloes are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll bet them in that role here today. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Clippers +9.5
The Clippers have won 3 in a row SU & ATS and they'll ride that momentum into Phoenix tonight where they are looking for revenge. The Clippers remember their 124-93 Christmas Day loss in Phoenix well, and that loss will have them extremely motivated tonight. The Suns have been playing well also, but their focus figures to wander to their next game against the Spurs. Here's the key: plays on road teams revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and the Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Take the points.

5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pistons +10
Tough spot for the Nuggets playing back-to-back after such an uptempo game last night. The Nuggets shot out of their mind last night, but those shots will have a tougher time falling with tired legs. This is a similar spot to last week for the Nuggets. After beating the Cavs, the Nuggets lost the next night by double digits to Washington as they were looking ahead to a game with Boston. Tonight, I think they get caught looking ahead to a showdown with the Lakers. Detroit has fared well against the Nuggets. In fact, it has won 7 straight and 21 of the last 25. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 13-3 ATS in the last 16. The Nuggets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero day's rest, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Detroit keeps this one within the number tonight.

4* Major Marquee Matchup (ESPN) on Hawks -3
This is a letdown spot for Dallas after such a gratifying win over the Lakers. Atlanta is one of the toughest home teams in the NBA at 22-6 at home this season. Its athleticism has caused major problems for the Mavs in recent matchups. Atlanta has won the last 2 meetings by 8 and 5 points respectively. In fact, the Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and also 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta has been deadly in the small home chalk. The Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games as a home favorite period. We'll lay the points with one of the best home teams in the NBA tonight.

5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Oregon State +5
UCLA doesn't deserve to be laying this many points against anyone in the Pac-10 this season when you consider that it is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Beavers have proven to be one of the best teams to back in college basketball as they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The Beavers are an impressive 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog period. Oregon State should be particularly hungry tonight coming off a double digit home loss to Stanford and having lost to UCLA by 10 points earlier this season. UCLA is coming off an absolutely embarrassing defeat of nearly 30 points at Washington, a place where the Beavers only lost by 6 points by the way. That loss will have the Bruins motivated, but this UCLA team just doesn't have the fire power to put away an equally motivated squad tonight. For all the beatings the Bruins have handed the Beavers in recent years, I expect to see Oregon State playing with some desire in this one. Plus Reeves Nelson and Brendan Lane are both listed as doubtful for UCLA. I like the Beavers in this spot catching points regardless, but it will be a huge blow if Nelson and his 11.0 ppg can't go. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Warriors +6
It's going to be a little bit different feel for the Nuggets without head coach George Karl on the bench tonight. Plus the Nuggets have been very inconsistent on the road this season and they figure to get a major test from a very motivated Warriors team here. The Warriors have lost each of the 3 prior meetings this season, with the last two losses coming by just 1 point and 5 points respectively, so you can bet they'll be pulling out all the stops not to be swept in the season series. Denver is just 4-12 ATS as a road favorite this season and only 1-10 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season, only winning in these spots by 3.6 points on average. The Nuggets are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Warriors are a terrific 34-13-4 ATS in their last 51 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll back the Warriors in the home dog role tonight.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Tulsa +18
Tulsa will leave it all out on the floor tonight in this national TV game against one of the best programs in the country. Right away I like the fact that plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a home win are 60-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. As if playing Duke on national TV isn't enough motivation, a very good Tulsa team should be especially hungry here as it enters off 3 straight losses. Pulling the upset tonight would easily atone for those defeats and that's what the Golden Hurricane will be shooting for. Tulsa has often been overvalued in its own league and as a result has lost 9 straight games ATS. Because of this, we are getting a little bit better line than we would have otherwise got. Plus, one has to think that Duke's players will be a little bit more concerned with the rest of its league schedule no matter how hard coach K tries to convince them not to be. We'll take an extremely motivated Tulsa team catching big points tonight.

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Bobcats +8
Can't see the Jazz covering this number without Deron Williams, who is doubtful with a quad injury, tonight. He is the engine of the Utah offense. Meanwhile, the Bobcats should be extremely hungry for a win here after back-to-back bad losses to the Bucks and Clippers. I expect a big game from Stephen Jackson tonight as he looks to rebound from a dreadful 1 of 16 performance in his last game. I know Utah is in a bounce back spot, but I can't see it winning this one by 8-plus with a banged up point guard against a Bobcats team that should be motivated. The Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and we'll side with the dog tonight.

5* NCAAB Underdog of the Month on St. Louis +5
The Billikens are not getting the respect they deserve at home tonight. This team is 9-3 SU & ATS in A-10 play and 14-1 SU at home and 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season. The Billikens have defeated Richmond (the conference leader), Dayton and Rhode Island outright in the home dog role in 2010, and I anticipate another upset here. Xavier, which is tied for 2nd in the A-10, has a date with Richmond up next, so St. Louis likely won't get the Musketeers' entire focus tonight, although it should. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread as the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Billikens are also an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. St. Louis is also 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points.

3* SMASH on Blazers +3
While Marcus Camby is doubtful and Jerryd Bayless is listed as questionable, I still give the edge to the Blazers catching points as the Raptors are expected to be without Chris Bosh. Without Bosh, the Blazers have the two best players on the floor in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and those guys should will the Blazers to victory here. While the Raptors have been good at home this season, consider that they are only 11-26-1 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We also can't dismiss the fact that the Blazers are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games playing on zero day's rest, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll take the points.

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games, are a perfect 15-0 this season. With Steve Nash not playing tonight, the Suns won't have as much success pushing the pace and their pick-n-roll game won't be nearly as smooth. Plus, Phoenix is 7-0 Under in the second half of the season this season and 10-0 Under in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under here.

4* Major MVC Game of the Month on Evansville +10
This is a big letdown spot for N. Iowa, who has already wrapped up the regular season MVC title, after a huge Bracket Buster win over Old Dominion last week. While Evansville is the worst team in the Valley, it has shown a spark of late, beating the league's second place team (Wichita State) and playing them to a 6-point game, in two meetings this month. One thing that can't be overlooked here is that N. Iowa is 0-7 ATS versus poor teams, outscored by their opponents by 4 or more points per game, under coach Jacobson. The Panthers are only beating these teams by 7.8 points on average. The Purple Aces are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points here tonight.

3* SMASH on Knicks +10
Boston wins tonight, but not by enough to cover this margin. The Celtics will likely be without Paul Pierce tonight, who is listed as doubtful with a thumb injury. Plus, they will undoubtedly be looking ahead to Thursday night's showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers. New York just played last night, but the team will be happy to get a chance to avenge an absolutely horrific performance so quickly. The Knicks only scored 67 points in last night's game with the Bucks and I expect much better from them here. NY has either defeated or played the Celtics to within 10 or fewer points in 3 straight and 6 of the last 7 meetings. The Celtics are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Even if Tracy McGrady isn't able to go, I look for the Knicks to keep this one within the number.

3* NBA Marquee Matchup on Atlanta Hawks +5
The Jazz have been rolling, but this is an extremely difficult spot for them after expending a lot of energy to come from 25 down to win in OT against Portland last night. Atlanta will be very hungry off back-to-back losses, including a bad loss to a lowly Golden State team Sunday in a game where it blew an 18-point lead. The Hawks match up very well with Utah athletically and that's a big reason why they have won the last two meetings by 7 and 13 points. Revenge may not be too likely for the Jazz in this spot when you consider that plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, playing on back-to-back days are 24-6 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 2-0 ATS already this season. The underdog is actually winning by 1.5 points on average in these spots. The Hawks are also 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9
I know Indiana has really struggled on the road this season, but it is coming off a nice confidence boosting win over the Rockets. Furthermore, this will be the Mavs 5th game in the last 7 days, making this a tough spot for a veteran team. Also, I have to think that Dallas will be much more concerned about Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers. With all this in mind, I really can't justify laying this many points when you consider that Dallas is just 5-20 ATS as a home favorite this season, only winning in these spots by an average of 1.5 points. Lastly, plays against home favorites, extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday "Total" Dominator on WVU/UConn UNDER 134.5
UConn has played to the Under in 4 of its last 5 and 9 of its last 12 and I expect this trend to continue tonight. A win tonight could go a long way toward boosting UConn's NCAA tourney chances and Jim Calhoun knows that his best chance to win is not to get into a track meet. Last season, when the Huskies won at WVU, they controlled the tempo and played great defense. As a result, the two teams combined for only 116 points, easily coming in Under the posted total of 138. Odds makers have come down with this number a little bit, but not enough, especially when you consider that UConn is a perfect 6-0 Under in its last 6 games where the total is posted in the 130's or lower. With as badly as the Huskies need this win, I expect a very high intensity effort on the defensive end, keeping this one Under the number.

4* Major NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Blazers +1
The Blazers have plenty of incentive to show up tonight after getting embarrassed at home by Boston and having lost each of the season's previous 3 meetings by double digits to the Jazz. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread as the home team is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings. Furthermore, the Jazz are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Portland. We also love the fact that plays on any team revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 10 points, are 72-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. With this in mind, I think it's safe to say we have the right side here. We also like the fact that the Trail Blazers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games as a home underdog and 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll take a very motivated Blazers team tonight.

5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +6.5
The Thunder are coming off a taxing overtime win in New York last night so they are going to have a difficult time covering this number on the road tonight, especially against a division rival that has played them so tough. Minnesota has either won or lost by 5 or fewer points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The only exception was a 7-point loss. The T-Wolves normally always get up for division games so it comes as no surprise that they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. Plus, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. While the Thunder are a much improved team this season, I think it's still a lot to be asking this team to lay this many points very often, especially in today's spot. In fact, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. I think it is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. We'll take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ABC) on Cavs/Magic UNDER 195
I expect a very physical defensive battle as this game takes on the feel of a playoff game Sunday afternoon. After allowing 106 points or more in each of its last 3 games, expect a Cleveland team only allowing 94.9 ppg on the season to really clamp down on the defensive end. Orlando will be equally motivated to "D" up after allowing 115 points to the Cavs just 10 days ago. The Magic are only allowing 94.2 ppg at home this season. This is a very strong system as it applies to both teams: plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 38-13 the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 2-0 already this season. The average total posted in these games has been 195 and we are only seeing a total of 187.1 points scored on average. Bet the Under.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Pacers +8
Houston has 4 new players that are expected to see the floor tonight, and that is bound to throw this team's chemistry for a loop. While Indiana has struggled on the road, it has had success against the Rockets. In fact, the Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Houston just hasn't shown that it can be trusted laying this many points when you consider that it is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games overall, 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games, 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Pacers and the points.

5* NCAAB Blowout of the Year on Cal -6.5
After an embarrassing double digit loss at Oregon State, Cal has seen its lead in the Pac-10 shrink to a half game. The Bears have already defeated Oregon by 32 points this season and they won by 18 the last time they visited the Ducks. Cal is the much more talented side and it should be motivated enough to lay the wood in this spot. The Golden Bears are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points (listed at -7 at some books). The Ducks are a terrible 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points (listed at +7 at some books). Oregon is 5-16 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by 13.8 points on average. With all the factors that have presented themselves, Cal seems primed for a blowout win.

4* Major C-USA Game of the Month on Tulsa -1
UTEP leads the league and enters this game having won 9 in a row, yet Tulsa is the team odds makers have favored. I believe the books have tipped their hand here. This should be Tulsa's most motivated spot of the entire season. It will be looking to avenge an earlier season loss to UTEP and it will be looking to avenge back-to-back losses to Memphis and Marshall. Tulsa has had great success against the Miners, and I expect that success to continue in this extremely motivated spot. Tulsa is 15-1 at home this season. It is a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS at home against the Miners over the last 3 seasons and 9-2 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 home games against UTEP. The Miners are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Tulsa and 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings overall. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Tulsa.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Bucks pk
Since winning the season's first meeting clear back on Halloween, the Bucks have dropped the last two to the Pistons. Expect Milwaukee to even the score tonight as it looks to stay in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the East. The Pistons are just 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Bucks are also an impressive 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Bucks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Bet the Bucks.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Mavs +6.5
Dallas has had tremendous success against the Magic, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings with that lone loss coming by just 2 points. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the underdog in terms of the point spread as the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Magic are a team that have been very prone to losing in look ahead spots. In fact, they lost to Memphis on January 25th as a favorite with Boston up next, and they lost to Washington as a favorite on February 5th with Boston on deck again. With LeBron and the Cavs on deck, it will likely be difficult for the Magic to give complete focus to the task at hand. Also, plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 27-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Mavs tonight.

4* Major Ivy League Game of the Month on Brown +6
The Bears will be out for revenge tonight after losing the season's first meeting by 1 point at home. Plus, I just can't justify laying this many points with Penn when you consider that the Quakers 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Meanwhile, the Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Penn. In addition, Penn is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 67.8 to 72.3. Take Brown and the points.

4* Major Pac-10 *Crunch Time Bailout* on Oregon State +6
We'll take the points with the Beavers tonight. Oregon State played Cal to a 4-point game on the road in the season's first meeting and has either won or lost by 5 or fewer points in each of the last 4 meetings. Oregon State is a terrific underdog because of its slow down style of play. The Beavers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Cal has not been the same team on the road at just 4-7 SU & ATS when playing away from home this season. The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings with Oregon St. and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Year on Nuggets +7
Denver believes it can win a championship and it has certainly showed that to be a possibility in its biggest games this season. The Nuggets have won both of their meetings with the Lakers and they won their only meeting with the Cavs in a game Carmelo Anthony did not play in. Now, with coach George Karl announcing that he has cancer, I expect his boys to play even harder. I have to think that the Nuggets will be the more focused team tonight as the Cavs try to adjust to life with Antawn Jamison and life without Zydrunas Ilgauskas. It is not clear whether Jamison will play, but it is certain that Big Z won't be in the lineup and the Cavs will miss him. We saw how bad the Mavs looked in their first game after making a big trade, only scoring 86 points against the Thunder. Chemistry was an issue and I expect it to be an issue for Cleveland here. Plus, the Cavs are still expected to be without Mo Williams so quality depth is also an issue. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Pepperdine +10.5
Off a big win over St. Mary's, don't expect Portland to give Pepperdine its complete focus tonight, especially since it won the first meeting by 16 points. Meanwhile, the Waves will be extremely focused as they try to end a 7-game skid. We made a similar play last night with the Nebraska Corn Huskers catching big points against a K-State team that had blown them out in the season's first meeting. K-State clearly wasn't ready for the motivated Huskers who led at the half and only lost by 4 points as a 14.5-point dog. Pepperdine has played 3 straight on the road so it will be very happy to see its home floor again tonight. This is a team that played Gonzaga to a 7-point game on the road so it can certainly give Portland all it wants and more at home here. We'll take the points.

5* Never Lost NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games are 51-15 the last 5 seasons including a Perfect 10-0 this season. In addition, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Dallas in this case; cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 26-4 since 1996 and 10-1 the last 3 seasons. With the Mavs still adjusting to their new teammates, I don't think they will have enough offensive cohesiveness to push this one over the number.

3* Big Ten SMASH on Penn State +7
After a physically draining overtime win over Minnesota Sunday, and with a revenge game against Wisconsin on deck, don't expect the Wildcats to be completely focused on the task at hand here. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions could not be more motivated as they are still looking for their first Big Ten win. With these things in mind, I believe odds makers are giving Penn State too many points. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog period. Penn State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, only losing in these games by an average score of 61.2 to 65.7. Plus, the Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. We'll take the points.

4* Major Big 12 *BEST BET* on Nebraska +14.5
We'll take Nebraska catching big points in what should be its most motivated spot of the season. The Huskers are coming off a brutal 40-point loss to Texas and they will be further motivated by a 19-point loss to K-State earlier this season. The Huskers have played Kansas to a 12-point game and an 11-point game this season so they can definitely keep this one within the number. Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, an excellent offensive team scoring 76 or more ppg, against an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or less ppg, after a combined score of 125 points or less, are 40-14 ATS since 1997. We'll take the Huskers tonight as they save face by giving the Wildcats all they want and more.

5* ESPN Super Tuesday Total of the Month on Kentucky/Mississippi State UNDER 142.5
In Kentucky's last 3 road games, we have seen total scores of 139, 130 and 136. Plus, each of the last two meetings in this series have easily come in Under this number with total scores of 133 and 123. While Kentucky can be prone to turnovers when put under pressure, teams know that they don't want to get into a track meet with the Wildcats. Expect Mississippi State to take a cue from S. Carolina, slowing down the pace, to give the Wildcats all they want and more, and the Under should be the result. The Under is 8-2 in the Wildcats' last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Under is also 7-2 in the Bulldogs' last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 11-4-1 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 period. With as solid as both of these teams are defensively, the Under gets the call tonight.

4* Major Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -2
The Jazz entered the All-Star break on a 9-1 tear, but a poor performance at home against the Lakers right before the break has left a sour taste in their mouth. Adding to that sour taste is an earlier season blowout loss to Houston. Expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Jazz are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 12-2-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Jazz.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 195
The Mavericks have acquired DeShawn Stevenson, Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler and they are expected to see action right away. This is going to create some chemistry problems initially, especially on the offensive end, and this is the chief reason why I think this one comes in Under the number tonight. Plus, I like the fact that plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), are 43-18 since 1996, including 11-2 over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams played in Seattle/Oklahoma City and 10-2 in the Thunder's last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll bet the Under.

4* Major ESPN Big Monday Total of the Month on Kansas/Texas A&M UNDER 141.5
Texas A&M is one of the better defensive teams in the country on its home floor where it is allowing only 59.8 ppg. Kansas has proven to be solid defensively as well, allowing only 65.5 ppg on the road. Right away, I like the Under here when you consider that Texas A&M is on a 28-13 Unders run, even against very good shooting teams making >=48% of their shots, and we have only seen 137 total points on average in these games. The Under is 7-3 in the Jayhawks' last 10 road games and 5-2 in the Aggies' last 7 home games. It's also 8-3 in the Aggies' last 11 games as a home underdog and 13-6 in the Jayhawks' last 19 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Texas A&M knows its best shot to win is not to get in a track meet with Kansas. I expect the Aggies to stick to the game plan tonight and for the Under to be the result.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on UL Monroe +8
Last season, these two teams produced a pair of nailbiters with both games being decided by a total of 4 points. UL Monroe is coming off back-to-back wins over a pair of teams that have recently defeated the Red Wolves (Arkansas LR, Western Kentucky). I know Arkansas St. is a good home team, but I believe this line is a little steep, especially when you consider that the Red Wolves are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It's also worth noting that Arkansas St. is on a 0-7 ATS slide when playing against a team with a win percentage between 40-49 percent after 15 or more games, actually losing to these teams by an average score or 65.9 to 74.7. It is also worth noting that Arkansas St. is 1-10 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. UL Monroe has won 2 of its last 3 road games SU as an underdog. We'll take the points tonight.

4* Major Big East *BEST BET* on Rutgers +11
Rutgers has proven to be pretty good at home with an 11-4 record on the season, including recent straight up wins as an underdog against Notre Dame and St. John's. Georgetown won the first meeting at home by 25 points so don't expect the Hoyas to bring their full attention and focus to the floor today, especially with a rematch against Syracuse up next on their minds. Remember what happened when Georgetown was looking ahead to a rematch with Villanova? It lost to S. Florida at home by 8 points as a 13-point favorite. Georgetown is 0-8 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Hoyas are also 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Rutgers.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Ohio +7.5
Ohio versus Akron is starting to become quite the heated rivalry in the MAC. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these schools have been decided by 5 points or less. Ohio comes in playing well, having won back-to-back games and 5 of its last 7, and motivation will not be an issue today as it seeks to avenge an earlier season loss to the Zips. Right away, I like the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, going up against an opponent off a road win, are 52-23 ATS the last 5 seasons. The average line in these games has the favorite favored by 6.1 points with a winning margin of only 2.6 points for that team. I also like the fact that Akron is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games with winning margins of just 5 and 4 in its last 2. It's also nice to know that the Zips are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points today.

3* Saturday Night Prime Time (ESPN) on Tennessee +9.5
Off an embarrassing loss at Vandy, expect the Vols and there pressure defense to show up and give the Wildcats problems tonight. Bruce Pearl is a great motivator. We saw the way he got his kids ready to play against Kansas, even in the face of adversity, and I expect him to do his part again tonight. While John Wall is no doubt talented, he has also been prone to turnovers, and I expect Tennessee's pressure to get to him in this one. In addition, the Vols were embarrassed twice by Kentucky last season so I expect those two losses to add fuel to the fire. The Volunteers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and we'll take them in that role here.

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Texas Tech -1.5
This game is all about payback for Texas Tech after getting crushed by 15 at A&M. The Red Raiders are a superb home team at 13-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season so I'll back them laying less than a deuce on their home floor here today. First off, the home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings so we see how important home court has been in this series. In addition, the Red Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. It's also nice to know that Texas Tech is 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. We'll take Tech as our Big 12 Top Play.

4* Major Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on Rhode Island +4.5
This is a very motivated spot for Rhode Island, who is looking to get back in the win column after a loss to Richmond and also looking to avenge an earlier season OT loss to Temple. Rhode Island has proven to be a quality team when playing away from home. In fact, it is 9-2 SU and 7-2 ATS in lined games away from home this season. Looking further back, the Rams are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Plus, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. It is still uncertain if Juan Fernandez, who was so instrumental in Temple's win over Rhode Island earlier this season, will go this afternoon. If he can't go, the Owls are certainly a mediocre team without him. If he can go, I expect to see some rust. We'll take the points with Rhode Island in this motivated spot.

4* Major MVC Monster on Drake +2.5
Indiana State really isn't too worthy to lay any amount of chalk right now when you consider that the Sycamores are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Plus, they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Drake may only be 4-8 away from home this season, but it is 8-3-1 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Missouri Valley. Drake will be out for blood here after a home loss to rival Northern Iowa and after a 14-point home defeat to Indiana State earlier this season. The Sycamores are already without Jake Kelly and now they've lost Harry Marshall and Dwayne Lathan. That's a lot or points to make up. We'll take the Bulldogs.

4* Major NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH of the Week on Columbia +13.5
We have a lot going in our favor here. First off, Princeton will be much more concerned with its game tomorrow against Cornell as the Big Red are also undefeated in Ivy League play. Secondly, Princeton runs a methodical clock-eating offense. With odds makers setting the opening total of this game at just 105.5 points, it is apparent that they expect points to be at a premium. With that in mind, I feel pretty good about catching 13.5 of them with Columbia. In fact, the Lions are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 13.0 or more points. Plus, the Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or more points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or more period. It is also worth noting that the Lions are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Another thing to keep in mind is the motivation level of Columbia. Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 73-33 ATS since 1997. Columbia will be motivated by its recent poor performance against Yale and further motivated by playing an undefeated Ivy League team tonight. We

4* Major NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN 2) on Saint Mary's +6
With a win, Saint Mary's takes a big step toward winning the WCC title so you can bet the Gaels are going to leave it all out on the floor tonight. Saint Mary's was very disappointed with how it played at home against the Zags in an earlier season loss so I expect a much better effort here. The Gaels have proven to be one of the best road teams in the country as they enter tonight's contest a perfect 7-0 in true road games. A couple other things really stick out to me. The first is that Saint Mary's is 13-4 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. The second is that the Gaels are a perfect 6-0 ATS when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed 85 or more points under coach Bennett. Take the points tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs +6
It's gut check time for the Spurs. They only managed 89 points against the Lakers Monday in a double digit defeat in a game Kobe Bryant did not play in. If that doesn't get San Antonio motivated nothing will, but I have a hunch it will. The Spurs should be further motivated by two prior defeats to the Nuggets this season, including a double digit home loss on January 31st. It is certainly worth noting that this matchup has been all about the underdog with the dog covering the last 6 meetings. Plus, the Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. I also like the fact that the Nuggets are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite and 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Denver is coming off a big win, and performances like that usually gain public backing the next game. That is the case here. With the odds makers' knowledge of such situations, I believe they have spotted us plenty of points to get the cover.

5* SEC Game of the Month (ESPN) on Ole Miss +4.5
Ole Miss lost the season's first meeting at home, but I expect the Rebels to pay back their struggling rivals, who have lost 4 of 5, tonight. The Rebels have been sensational against the spread when playing away from home at 8-2 in that role this season. In fact, Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. But what's even more impressive is that the Rebs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a loss versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Ole Miss and the points.

5* MWC Game of the Year on New Mexico +5.5
New Mexico is catching too many points here when you consider the motivation it has to avenge an earlier season loss to UNLV. This matchup has been all about the underdog from a betting perspective as the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, the Lobos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and the Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. New Mexico is also 7-2 when playing away from home this season. In addition, a win by the Lobos would take them past UNLV in the MWC standings. They would then be all alone at the top in the win column and only tied with BYU in the loss column. That's further motivation for Steve Alford's boys tonight. And we certainly can't overlook the weapon that is coach Alford here as his teams are 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a same season in all games he has coached since 1997, winning in these spots by an average score of 68.7 to 67.9. In other words, he has made the proper adjustments. I'll take the points tonight as New Mexico has an excellent shot at winning this one outright.