Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Total Annihilator of the Week on Heat/Bulls UNDER

This matchup features two very talented defenses. The Heat have held opponents to 98.5 points per game on the road this season. Those opponents have a scoring average of 100 points per game so they should easily improve on that number against this Bulls team that is averaging only 93 points per game.

Chicago has arguably the best defense in the league. They have held opponents to 89.6 points per game when playing at home. Over their last five games they have surrendered just 91.2 points per game. The Bulls have put these numbers up against teams with an offensive scoring average of 100.2 points per game which is a comparable number to Miami's offensive scoring average this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under when the road team has a +3 to +7 point scoring differential and is coming off a game allowing 110 points or more, and they are facing an average team that has a +/- 3 point scoring differential and the total has been set between 180 to 189.5 points. This system has an impressive 24-4 (86%) record in favor of the under.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -

Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today.

The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* False Favorite Game of the Week on Colorado State +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Wyoming is a very overrated team. The last time these teams met the Rams picked up a 15 point win. The change in venue may allow the Cowboys to decrease that margin of loss, but it will not be enough for them to win this game.

Colorado State is averaging 73.4 points per game this season. The Cowboys come into this matchup averaging a mere 64.6 points per game. The reason Wyoming was blown out by the Rams in the first meeting of the season is because they are a poor rebounding team. Colorado State pulls in 38 rebounds per game, with 11 of them coming on the offensive glass. The Cowboys on the other hand are averaging 29 rebounds per game with just four coming on the offensive glass.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on Colorado State. You should take a team like the Rams when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that averages less than 12 turnovers per game, and they are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system has a 212-158 (57%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Utah has been horrible on the road this season posting a 2-7 record. They are facing a very underrated Stanford team that averages 78 points per game at home. The Cardinal are 11-4 in home games, which includes a 10-3 record against the spread.

Stanford also has a very underrated defense. The Cardinal have held opponents to a mere 66.2 points per game at home this season. Stanford is also 8-2 ATS in home games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Utah has forced an average of 12 turnovers per game on the road this season.

The Utes have some artificially inflated shooting statistics thanks to a very soft schedule. That should not slow the Cardinal down since they have a 63-42 ATS record when facing teams that are making 48% or more of their shot attempts. Utah may average 49.6 percent from the field overall this season, but when playing on the road that number dips down to 41.7 percent shooting. The Utes also go from averaging 77.8 points per game to 64.9 points per game on the road.

3* American Athletic Game of the Week on UConn +

This is a lot of points for a game that could easily be won by UConn. The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country surrendering 62.8 points per game. In the last game against Louisville the Huskies suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance. They were held to 35 percent shooting from the field, and that is unlikely to take place again today.

UConn is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won three straight games, including a victory over then No. 11 ranked Cincinnati. I don't think Louisville will get a big benefit from home court advantage since UConn has dominated on the road with a 10-3 record.

The Huskies are a team that plays incredibly well against good teams. They are 52-31 ATS in road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Louisville on the other hand has not performed well as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

4* Total Annihilator on Pacers/Rockets UNDER

The Indiana Pacers are a very good team defensively. They are trying to secure the top overall seed in the East, and following a two game losing streak I expect the Pacers to come out with a strong defensive performance tonight against the Rockets. Indiana has held opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game this season.

Houston is a much better team defensively than it gets credit for. The Rockets opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.2 points per game, yet Houston has surrendered just 99 points per game when playing at home. They will catch a break tonight against a Pacers team that averages a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. It is also worth nothing that over their last five games the Pacers scoring average has dipped down to 96 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under in a matchup that features an average three point shooting team making 33 to 36.5 percent of their attempts like the Rockets, against an average three point shooting defense allowing the same percentage like Indiana, in a game involving two teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin per game after 42 or more games. This system has a record of 100-57 (64%) in favor of the under.

4* Heavy Hitter on Denver Nuggets -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Lakers are playing in a tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting the Clippers last night, and now they have to play on the road against Denver. In last night's game the Lakers were blown out by 48 points so the team's confidence has to be at a season low.

The Nuggets have an explosive offense. They are averaging 103.6 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up an even bigger number tonight since the Lakers have allowed 108.2 points per game on the road. It is also worth noting that over their last five games the Lakers have surrendered an average of 122 points per game.

You should play against road underdogs like the Lakers when they are revenging a home loss to their opponent, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home losses. The last time these teams met the Nuggets picked up a 22 point win in Los Angeles. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Blazers/Mavericks OVER

Both of these teams are soft defensively. The Trailblazers are coming into this matchup allowing 105.3 points per game when playing on the road. They are scoring 108 points per game in road games so there is very little doubt about Portland making a big contribution towards the over. In fact, the over has an 18-11 record when Portland is on the road this season.

The Mavericks should also do their part towards sending this game over the total. The team averages 106.9 points per game at home, but against a soft defense like Portland's they should be able to exceed that number. Defensively the Mavericks are giving up 102.6 points per game, but that number will probably be a lot higher tonight against Portland's outstanding offense. The Mavericks have also surrendered 104.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the over. You should take the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more. This system has a 44-14 (76%) record in favor of the over.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The last time these teams met Wright State squeaked by with a single point win. The Golden Grizzlies will be playing with a lot more motivation in this matchup, and I like there chances to play another great game against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a confidence boosting win over Youngstown State, and now they get the Raiders on a neutral court with a chance to keep their postseason dreams alive.

Statistically the Grizzlies matchup well with the Raiders. Wright State is not a strong rebounding team. They average a mere 29 rebounds per game, with only seven of those coming on the offensive glass. That ranks them 344th in the country in rebounds per game. The Raiders are also ranked 270th in points per game with 67.4, while the Grizzlies average 74.9 points per game and rank 78th in the country.

Oakland is 33-15 against the spread when playing on the road or a neutral court against a conference opponent. They are also 17-7 ATS in March games with Greg Kampe as the head coach. Kampe is the third longest-tenured Division 1 head coach in the country. That kind of experience makes Oakland a dangerous team in the postseason. In this matchup the Grizzlies are both more talented and experienced than Wright State.

3* No Doubt Rout on North Dakota -

Southern Utah has been unable to win a game since their first game of the season. They are one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I don't think the Thunderbirds can play a close game against North Dakota and its 85th ranked offense.

Southern Utah ranks 350th in the country in points per game with 58.6. North Dakota on the other hand is averaging 74.3 points per game, and should have no problem exceeding that number against this Thunderbirds defense that has surrendered 75 points per game. North Dakota is 1.5 games back on Weber State in the Big Sky standings, and they have a half game lead over third place Montana. There is still a lot to play for, and that means this will be another blowout loss for Southern Utah.

This matchup fits into a system to play against the Thunderbirds. You should fade teams like Southern Utah when they are revenging a same season loss, and they are off two straight losses against conference rivals. This system has a 172-103 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Thunder are on fire right now having won three straight games coming into this matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is coming off a tough loss to the Clippers in its last outing, and I expect a similar result tonight against Oklahoma City. Over their last five games the Thunder are averaging 115 points per game, and they should have no problem putting up another huge number against the Suns' soft defense.

The Suns are struggling at the point guard position, and that will make it incredibly difficult to play a close game against a top tier team like the Thunder. Eric Bledsoe has been out since December with a knee injury, and in their last game against the Clippers the Suns lost their backup Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa will miss up to six weeks with a fractured hand. The Suns are now 2-4 in their last six games and allowing more than 110 points per game during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Thunder. You should play on road favorites like Oklahoma City when they are coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system identifies teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 56-29 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic Sun Game of the Year on USC Upstate +

In the Spartans two games against Mercer they lost 60-62 in overtime on the road, and embarrassed the Bears 80-61 at home. Upstate might be the most underrated team in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and their is simply no reason they should be such a large underdog in this matchup. Six of the Spartans seven conference losses came by six-points or less.

USC Upstate is averaging 73.7 points per game. The Spartans have already shown us they can score on Mercer since they put up 80 points the last time these teams met. Mercer on the other hand has put up just 60 and 62 points against the Spartans underrated defense.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road teams like USC Upstate when they are coming off two straight wins by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that scored 85 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the road team has been undervalued, and it has resulted in a 55-26 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Old Dominion -

When these teams met back in January it was Old Dominion picking up a double-digit win on the road. In the final game of the regular season I see no reason why the Monarchs cannot pick up another impressive win over the Pirates, this time on their home court. The Pirates have not fared well on the road this season posting a 7-6 record.

These teams may have similar overall records, but the most telling number about the disparity in talent between them are their conference records. Old Dominion is 8-7 in conference games while the Pirates are 5-10. The Monarchs should have no problem improving on that number from their home court where they have allowed a mere 63.8 points per game this season.

East Carolina is 10-27 ATS when they are revenging a loss as a favorite. The Pirates are also 24-43 ATS when revenging any same season loss. Old Dominion is coming off very poor performance against Charlotte in its last outing, and that has created value on today's line. The Monarchs should dominate this game from start to finish.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Air Force +

The Lobos are playing in the perfect situation to look past Air Force as they prepare to take on the Mountain West co-leader in their regular season finale. Air Force is coming into this matchup under the radar with an 11-16 record, and they are in a good spot to play a great game against the unsuspecting Lobos. New Mexico will be on the road against San Diego State to determine the regular season champion of the Mountain West assuming both teams get past tonight's opponent with a win, and with such a big game on deck I think they come up short of covering the spread against the Falcons tonight.

The Falcons are unlikely to pull off an upset, but they are definitely capable of keeping this game within the 18 points they are being spotted. Only three of Air Force's 11 conference losses have come by a margin large enough to cover this line. The Falcons were on the road against San Diego State just a few weeks ago and manged to stick to within a single digit margin, and I expect them to deliver a similar result tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Air Force. You should play on road underdogs like the Falcons when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, and they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has resulted in a 38-13 (75%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas Tech +

The Kansas Jayhawks do not have a lot to play for tonight. They are already the regular season conference champions, and with a lack of motivation I think they will have a lot of trouble covering a double-digit spread against this hungry Red Raiders team. Texas Tech's season has been a disaster, but they have played some great basketball down the stretch. Four of their last five games have been decided by 10 points or less, which includes matchups against a ranked Iowa State team, and a game against the Jayhawks.

Kansas will rest Joel Embiid for this game in preparation for the postseason. When these teams met just over two weeks ago Embiid accounted for 18 of the Jayhawks 64 points. Kansas ended up winning that game by a single point. The lack of motivation showed on the road against Oklahoma State in the Jayhawks' last outing, and I think we can expect a similar performance tonight against Texas Tech.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Red Raiders. You should play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a loss of three points or less and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue the underdog and it has resulted in a 41-13 (76%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +

The Warriors are playing in a letdown spot today after winning a close game on the road against Indiana last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but doing so when coming off a big win like Golden State is will prove to be incredibly difficult tonight against this Celtics team that is starting to get hot on offence. Over their last five games Boston has averaged 100 points per game.

Boston has covered the spread in three of their last four games. They are coming into this matchup with plenty of rest having three days off since hosting the Pacers the first of March. These teams met back in January and the Celtics managed to stick to within two points playing at Golden State. This time they have the luxury of playing host, so I like their chances to play another close game with the Warriors.

The Warriors have been a soft team defensively when playing on the road. They are surrendering 99.9 points per game, and that puts them at a serious disadvantage against this well rested Celtics team. Boston has held opponents to 97.3 points per game at home this season, and they should have no problem improving on that number against Golden State tonight.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER

This total is far too high considering the way these teams match up tonight. Detroit may not be known for playing great defense, but they have performed well defensively when facing a division opponent. The Pistons are surrendering a mere 94.4 points per game against the division, and the under looks really attractive when you consider their offensive production also takes a hit down to 98.4 points scored in those games.

Chicago is holding division opponents to 86.5 points per game. The Bulls have one of the best defenses in the league, and I think they should easily keep the Pistons in check tonight. On the offensive end of the court the Bulls are nothing to be worried about. When playing on the road this season Chicago is averaging a mere 91.7 points per game, and against division opponents they are averaging just 90.6 points per game.

You should play the under when one of the teams has beaten the spread by 36 or more points in their last five games (Chicago), and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 55-37 (60%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons.

4* Letdown Game of the Week on Bobcats +

The Indiana Pacers are playing in a bad letdown spot after losing at home to Golden State last night. Now they are in the second half of a back-to-back, traveling to Charlotte to take on the Bobcats. Charlotte should be well prepared for this game since they are playing with a day of rest following a three game road trip.

The Bobcats have been playing some great basketball at home recently. They have a perfect 4-0 record in their last four home games, which includes an upset win as an underdog over the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte's last loss at home came against San Antonio, but it was a game where the Bobcats still managed to cover the spread. Now they have the luxury of facing Indiana in a percent situation to give the Pacers a scare.

Charlotte is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against teams from the Central division. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming into this matchup with a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games overall. Indiana has really been struggling away from home posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight road games.

4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Lakers/Pelicans OVER

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming into this matchup with some serious issues on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games the Pelicans have surrendered an average of 109.8 points per game. On the offensive end of the court the Pelicans should be fine tonight since they face a Lakers team that is allowing 109.6 points per game over their last five games.

With both defenses surrendering a combined average of 219.4 points per game over their last five games I think we are getting a lot of value on the over tonight. The Pelicans offense should get the boost they need facing a struggling defense like the Lakers, and the Lakers should have no problem continuing to put up big offensive numbers since they are already averaging 106 points per game over their last five games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers have gone over the total in six of their last seven games.

The over has a 39-19 record over the last two seasons when the Pelicans are facing a team with a losing record. When their opponent is being outscored by three or more points per game the over is 11-3 in Pelican's games this season. The over is also 13-5 in Lakers games against poor pressure defenses that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Both teams are playing extremely soft defense right now, and they have gone over the total in four of the last five head-to-head meetings.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +

The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight, and even Lebron James won't be able to get them past the Rockets. Miami was at home last night hosting Charlotte, and now they have to play the second half of a back-to-back on the road in Houston tonight. The Rockets have been on fire recently, winning 11 of their last 13 games. Over their last five games they are scoring an impressive 110.8 points per game.

Houston has a 23-7 record at home this season, and the oddsmakers have really undervalued their home court advantage tonight. The Rockets are holding opponents to a mere 98.8 points per game when playing at home, while averaging 106.9 points per game on the offensive end of the court. With Houston's offense playing as well as they have been, and Miami playing without rest, the Rockets should have no problem picking up a win on their home court.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Houston. You should play against road teams like Miami when the line is three points or less and they went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game, and both teams have a winning record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the road team and it has resulted in a 49-21 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Big Sky Game of the Month on Northern Colorado +

North Dakota is clearly outmatched against Northern Colorado today. The Bears should have no problem putting up big numbers against North Dakota's soft defense. The Bears come into this matchup averaging 74.1 points per game, making 48.7 percent of their attempts from the field and 38.7 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line. North Dakota has surrendered 73.3 points per game this season, allowing just over 48 percent shooting from the field.

These teams met earlier this season and the Bears picked up an 18 point win. North Dakota has won three straight games coming into this matchup, but only one of those teams has a winning record. North Dakota will be at a severe disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. They rank 321st in the nation with just 31.1 rebounds per game.

Northern Colorado is 6-0 ATS against terrible defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 48 percent or worse. The Bears are coming off a tough home loss, but in the past those types of games seem to serve as motivation. They are 13-4 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival. The Bears are the better team and it will show today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Jacksonville +

These teams met last Saturday and the Jacksonville Dolphins were able to stick to within 14 points on the road. There is a lot of value getting the Dolphins as a 14.5 point underdog in this rematch. Jacksonville knows what adjustments need to be made to play a better game against Mercer this time around.

The Dolphins suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in the previous matchup with the Bears making just 40 percent of their attempts. Jacksonville averages 74.7 points per game this season, and they have made an average of almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. With an average shooting performance tonight Jacksonville will easily keep this game within a single-digit margin.

Jacksonville may have lost their last regular season game to Mercer, but the Dolphins still had a very strong finish to the season. They managed to win three of their final four games. Over their final five games the Dolphins boosted their scoring average to 75.8 points per game, while Mercer finished the season well below its scoring average at 73.6 points per game. The value is on Jacksonville covering the spread in today's rematch.

4* Big Sky Game of the Week on Montana State +

The value in this matchup is on the road team when in-state rivals Montana State and Montana face off tonight. The last time these teams met the game was decided by a mere four points, and the change in venue is not going to be enough to give the Grizzlies a double-digit advantage. Both of these teams have similar overall and conference records, and with this being a rivalry game it is one that could easily be won outright by the Bobcats.

Montana has not fared well from the favorite position this season. They are 3-10 against the spread when playing as a favorite. The Grizzlies are also 1-8 against the spread in home games after a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bobcats should have no problem keeping this game close against their in-state rival today. In the first meeting of the season they suffered from a below average shooting performance and still managed to stick to within four points. I don't credit their poor shooting in that game to good defensive play by the Grizzlies since Montana has allowed opponents to average 70.3 points per game on almost 48 percent shooting from the field this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Montana State when they average 67-74 points per game, and they are facing an opponent allowing 67-74 points per game after 15 or more games, and they scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. This system has a 79-37 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -

The Utah Jazz are playing their third game in the last four days. This is the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Indiana last night. Now the Jazz have to travel to Milwaukee for their third consecutive road game to face a Bucks team that has been playing better than their record would indicate.

Milwaukee comes into this matchup having covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games. They may not be winning a lot of games straight up, but they are definitely keeping games close against good teams. They should have no problem picking up a win with the lowly Jazz in town. The Jazz have lost five of their last seven games, and playing on the road again in a back-to-back situation will simply be too much to overcome.

The Jazz are 2-10 against the spread after playing two consecutive road games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team is 11-2 against the spread. With Milwaukee coming into this matchup with a day of rest and home court advantage they should have no problem picking up a win tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -

The home team has a big advantage in this matchup when the Brooklyn Nets host the Chicago Bulls tonight. Chicago is playing in a tough spot after hosting New York last night, and now they have the play the second half of a back-to-back against this Brooklyn team that has won three of its last four games. The Nets are playing with a day of rest, and they are back on their home court where they will try to revenge a loss against Chicago that opened a seven game road trip that started just over two weeks ago.

Both of these teams have talented defenses, but it is the Nets offense that gives them the advantage in this game. Brooklyn is averaging 98.8 points per game at home this season, which is more than enough to cover such a small spread against a Bulls team that averages 92.1 points per game on the road. Chicago's offensive numbers have come against teams with much softer defenses than what they will face from Brooklyn tonight. The Bulls' opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game.

Chicago has not played well on the road this year. They have a 15-16 straight up record. The fact that Chicago is surrendering 94.5 points per game on the road while only scoring 92.1 points per game is a good indication that the Bulls are even worse than their losing road record would indicate. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days, and I don't think they can keep it close against a rested Brooklyn team playing with home court advantage.

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Grizzlies -

The Wizards are trying for their longest winning streak in over nine years tonight, but it is a streak they will not be achieving with the Memphis Grizzlies in town. Memphis has been playing incredibly well recently, and with their offense rolling the way it has been the Wizards are simply outmatched. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have averaged over 103 points per game.

Washington's recent run has also come against a fairly soft schedule. They are coming off a road game against one of the worst teams in the league, and I don't give the Wizards a lot of credibility for beating up on teams like Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland and New Orleans. Washington has yet to face a defense as talented as the Grizzlies' during their recent run. Memphis comes into this matchup surrendering a mere 92.3 points per game on the road this season.

You should play against home teams with a line of three points or less in a game involving two teams that are +/- three points per game in differential after 42 or more games, and after the home team has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 93-48 (66%) against the spread. You should also play on road favorites like Memphis after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. This system is 209-132 (61%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -

The Warriors should have no problem picking up a win over Toronto today. Over their last five games they have been playing some outstanding defense surrendering just 97.4 points per game. They are facing a Raptors team that has allowed over 100 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams boasting a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons.

I don't think home court advantage will be a big factor for Toronto tonight. Golden State is coming into this game with a day of rest, so the impact of traveling will not be as bad as it is when teams are playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors have benefited from a soft schedule at home this year, but that changes today. Toronto is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 70 percent of its games on the season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Warriors. You should play on road favorites like Golden State when they are averaging over 102 points per game and facing a team allowing 92 to 98 points per game, after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This system has a 48-22 (69%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on South Alabama +

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In the first matchup South Alabama picked up an eight point win on their home court. This time the venue to will change and the Ragin' Cajuns will play host, but home court advantage is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Louisiana-Lafayette to cover such a large spread.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a much better record than the Jaguars, but with the way these teams matchup the value is with South Alabama. Lafayette is a team that likes to run an up-tempo offense to tire their opponent, but South Alabama is too good defensively for that style of play to work. The Jaguars have held opponents to 69.8 points per game this season, and that includes holding the Cajuns to 73 points earlier this season. Lafayette typically averages over 81 points per game. The Cajun's defense has been horrible allowing just shy of 75 points per game. They surrendered a whopping 81 points to the Jaguars last time these teams met.

The Jaguars have dominated the head-to-head history with Lafayette. Over the last three seasons, South Alabama is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread when facing the Cajuns. In all games played at Louisiana-Lafayette since 1997, the Jaguars are 8-5 against the spread. The Cajuns are 3-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games. They are coming off a tough road loss to Georgia State in their last outing, and I expect that loss to have a lingering negative effect.

4* Vegas Insider on Minnesota T'Wolves -

Minnesota is an easy call in this matchup against Sacramento tonight. The Wolves are coming off three days of rest, while the Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after facing the Lakers last night. Minnesota is also the hot team coming into this game. The Wolves have won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread.

Both of these teams have had their share of issues defensively this season, but over their last five games the Timberwolves have stepped up their level of play on that end of the court. Minnesota has surrendered 98.8 points per game compared to 104.8 points per game allowed over the Kings last five games. The Wolves also have the advantage on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 105 points per game on the road, to 102.7 points per game at home from Sacramento. The disparity in scoring is even greater when you look at how these teams have performed offensively over their last five games too.

This matchup fits into a system to play on teams like Minnesota that have covered the spread in four of more of their last six games, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games and are playing a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the year. This system has a very profitable record of 84-46 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Lay the points with the Wolves tonight because they should pick up an easy win.

4* No Brainer on Long Beach State -

The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers when playing on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 10-4 ATS record in road games this year, and they should improve on that number today against CS-Fullerton. The 49ers should also be the more motivated team in this game. A win over Fullerton will keep their chances alive to finish the regular season in first place in the Big West Conference.

The 49ers have a very underrated defense. Against conference opponents they have surrendered a mere 64 points per game. The Titans on the other hand are surrendering 73.1 points per game against Big West opponents. It is a similar story on the offensive end of the court too. Long Beach State improves to 71.2 points per game against the conference while Fullerton regresses to 69.2 points per game. The Titans have benefited from a soft schedule this year, but their performance in the Big West is a good indication of how overrated they really are.

You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Long Beach State when they have a +/- 3.5 point per game differential and are playing against a team with a -3.5 to -8.5 point per game differential after 15 or more games, and they are coming off a close win by three points or less. This system has resulted in a 57-25 (70%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Northern Arizona +

Weber State is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers in this Big Sky showdown with Northern Arizona tonight. The Lumberjacks managed to keep this game to within a single-digit margin in the first meeting of the season between these teams. The change in venue to Weber State's home court is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Wildcats to cover the spread.

The Lumberjacks have a very underrated defense this year. Their opponents have an offensive scoring average of almost 71 points per game and the Lumberjacks are allowing an even 70 points per game. Against conference opponents that number tightens up to 68.8 points per game allowed. I don't think Weber State is good enough offensively to score enough points on Northern Arizona's defense to cover a double-digit line today, and that makes the Lumberjacks a strong value play.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more like Northern Arizona when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent and playing their second road game in the last three days. This system has a 123-78 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Oakland +

The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are a much better team than their record indicates. The non-conference portion of the schedule was tough this season as the Grizzlies opened by playing three of their first four games on the road and against ranked teams. The Grizzlies have been playing much better against Horizon League opponents posting a matching record with Youngstown State of 6-9.

Home court advantage will not be enough for Youngstown to pull off a six point win against this underrated Oakland team. The Penguins are surrendering an average of 72.9 points per game this season against opponents with an offensive scoring average of only 69.7 points per game. They are up against a Grizzlies team that is averaging 73.8 points per game on the year. Oakland already has one win over Youngstown State this season, and I think they will have a good chance to pull off the sweep over the Penguins today.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oakland after going over the total by 18 or more points in their last three games when they have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies road teams that are performing well offensively and are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 210-124 (63%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Davidson -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Davidson is a much better team than Elon, and it will show on the court today. The Wildcats are 14-1 against conference opponents this season, and 10-5 against the spread in those games. Elon on the other hand has a decent straight up record of 11-4 against the Southern Conference, but they are 7-8 against the spread in those games.

The last time these teams met the game went to overtime and was played at Davidson. The Phoenix are the only team to hand the Wildcats a conference loss this season, so Davidson should be playing with plenty of motivation for revenge today. In that matchup Davidson shot well below their typical 47.5 percent from the field, while Elon shot over 50 percent from the field when they normally average closer to 46 percent shooting. That statistical anomaly is unlikely to repeat itself in this second meeting of the season.

You should play on road favorites like Davidson when they are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, when their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite in their previous game. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread. It is a good way to identify matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team.

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tennessee State +

These teams may have vastly different records, but the Tigers have been playing just as well as the Colonels lately. Tennessee State has won its last two meetings, including a road win over Morehead State in their last outing. It is also worth nothing that the Tigers were listed as a double-digit underdog in that game. The Tigers have been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Colonels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite.

The biggest weakness for Eastern Kentucky this year has been a defense that is allowing a lot of uncontested shots. That has resulted in opponents making 48.4 percent of their attempts. The Colonels are allowing 70.1 points per game, and it will be extremely difficult to win by a double-digit margin with the defense giving up as many points as they have. Tennessee State has proved to be a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-4 ATS in road games, while Eastern Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Eastern Kentucky. You should fade teams like the Colonels when they are a home favorite of 10 points or more and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 20 percent of their games or less. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has led to a 279-182 (61%) record against the spread.

3* Main Event on California +

This is a revenge game for the Golden Bears, and I like their chances to get that revenge after giving one away on their home court earlier this season. The last time these teams met the game went to overtime. The Cal players struggled to find the basket and were forced to play soft defense because of foul trouble. It took a near 48 percent shooting effort on three-point attempts for the Sun Devils to get to overtime and eventually win that game.

Cal has several statistical advantages in this game. They have been the better ball control team this season with a mere 10 turnovers per game, to 12 turnovers per game from the Sun Devils. Cal is also the better rebounding team posting a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Sun Devils come into this matchup with a -2 figure in rebounding margin. The Sun Devils really struggle on the offensive glass, pulling in a mere seven offensive rebounds per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing road teams. You should play on road teams like Cal in a game involving two average defenses that are allowing 67-74 points per game when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 222-141 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are the better team, and the fact that they are getting so many points is a good indication that the oddsmakers have overvalued Utah's home court advantage. Colorado comes into this matchup with a 20-8 overall record and a 9-6 record against Pac-12 opponents. Meanwhile, Utah is 18-9 overall and has a losing record of 7-8 against the Pac-12.

Utah played a very soft non-conference schedule and it featured only one game being played on the road. That soft schedule has inflated Utah's record to make the team look better than they actually are when playing at home. When you separate the non-conference portion of the schedule from the Utes games against Pac-12 teams you can see just how mediocre Utah has been this year. Utah's scoring average drops from 78.4 points per game down to 71.2 points per game, and their defensive scoring increases from 64.3 points allowed to 67.9 points allowed against the Pac-12.

The Utes are not a very physical team, and that bodes well for the Buffaloes in this matchup. Colorado is 31-15 ATS against teams that have been called for three or more fouls per game less than their opponents after 15 or more games on the season. The Buffaloes are also 25-13 ATS when coming off a game where they failed to coverage the spread. Since Colorado is on the road we will take the points, but they will have a good chance to win this game straight up today.

3* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Cavaliers UNDER

This total is set quite a bit higher than it should be considering how poorly these teams have looked on the offensive end of the court this season. The Jazz come into this matchup averaging just 92.3 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents allowing an average of over 100 points per game. Cleveland is an above average team in comparison, allowing just 98.2 points per game at home this season.

The Cavaliers have also had a lot of problems getting points on the board. They are averaging 96.9 points per game this season. The Jazz are definitely a soft team defensively, but I think they should be able to slow the Cavaliers down in this matchup. Utah's opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.7 points per game, and with Cleveland averaging almost five points per game below that number the under shows a lot of value.

This game fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when one of the teams (Utah) is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road win by 10 points or more. The Jazz picked up a 23 point win at home over Phoenix in their last outing, while the Cavaliers picked up a 10 point road win over Oklahoma City. In this situation the under has a 98-52 (65%) record.

5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -

The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup.

The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Cornell +

Harvard is not the kind of team that is going to win in a 20+ point blowout very often. They are a smart team that likes to slow down on offense and setup plays. The fact that they are not a fast paced team is going to make it extremely difficult to have enough possessions to outscore Cornell by 25 or more points.

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In that first meeting the Harvard Crimson managed to shoot 60 percent from the field. That is a feat that is extremely unlikely to take place again since the Big Red have allowed 60 percent shooting or more just one other time this season, and that other game was decided by a mere seven points.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Crimson. You should fade teams like Harvard when they are coming off three or more consecutive road wins, and they are a top level team that has won 80 percent or more of its games on the season. This system identifies teams that are playing in a letdown situation. It has resulted in a 26-9 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cal Poly-SLO -

It is a Big West showdown when the Cal Poly Mustangs take on the UC Davis Aggies. The last time these teams met the Aggies picked up a four point win, but I think their fortunes will change in the second meeting of the season. In that first game UC Davis benefited from an absurdly good night of shooting from beyond the three point line, and that statistical anomaly is not likely to take place again.

Cal Poly is a much better team defensively than the Aggies. The Mustangs have held opponents to a mere 64 points per game this season. Even with UC Davis shooting 10 percent better on three point attempts and making almost 50 percent of their shot attempts from the field, the Aggies were still held to just 62 points in that first meeting of the season. The Mustangs were also without one of their best players in that game with Kyle Odister out of action. Odister is expected to be in the lineup tonight.

UC Davis is not a strong rebounding team, and I think that will be a big issue against the Poly's top notch defense. They cannot count on an absurdly great shooting performance in this matchup. UC Davis is 7-20 ATS in home games when coming off a performance with five or less offensive rebounds, and they are 12-31 at home when failing to cover the spread in their previous home game.

4* Heavy Hitter on UAB -

We are getting a lot of value on the Blazers in this matchup thanks to a somewhat sluggish performance lately. UAB has lost four of its last seven games, but more importantly they have shown signs of turning a corner by winning three of their last four. Now they have the luxury of facing the worst team in the conference, and we get the benefit of laying a single-digit number in a game that should end in a blowout.

Statistically this is a very lopsided matchup. Rice has a mere 2-11 record against conference opponents this season. They are averaging 63.2 points per game, and face a UAB team that has gone for 74.9 points per game this year. The Owls' offensive woes really stand out when you look at their performance against conference opponents. Rice is averaging just 60.1 points per game against the conference, and over their last five games that number has dipped all the way down to 56.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Owls. You should play against home underdogs like Rice when they are coming off a road loss, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a close road win decided by three points or less. This system identifies road teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 110-57 (66%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Murray State -

Murray State is without a doubt the best team in the Ohio Valley, and they are on fire coming into tonight's matchup against Tennessee-Martin. The Racers have won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss during that stretch coming by a mere three points on the road against first in the East - Belmont. Tennessee-Martin is currently in last place in the West division of the conference.

The biggest problem for the Skyhawks this season has been a complete lack of defense. They are allowing 81.1 points per game overall, and they have not received much of a home court advantage by still allowing 79.5 points per game. The Skyhawks are -6 in rebounding margin at home and will be severely outmatched on the boards against the Racers tonight. The last time these teams met Murray State picked up a 14-point win and a change in venue will not be enough to cut that margin in half.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Racers. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Murray State when they are coming off three straight wins over conference rivals, and they are a good team winning 60 to 80 percent of their games and are playing a bad team winning 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system is 61-32 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Week on Duquesne +

This is way too many points for an underrated team like Duquesne to be receiving. The Dukes are averaging 73.5 points per game this season, which is more than the Billikens have averaged on their home court. St Louis has struggled to meet the oddsmakers absurdly high expectations recently, and I expect that to be the case again today. The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

St Louis will have an edge defensively, but I don't think it is enough to cover such a large spread. Six of the Billikens last eight games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and the competition does not get any easier against the Dukes tonight. Duquesne has a 7-2 ATS record when playing on the road, and they are 8-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more after 10 or more consecutive wins. The system has a 170-123 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons. You should also play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Duquesne when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 75 or more points and are coming off two covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 49-17 (71%) against the spread.

3* Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER

The Pacers defense has been ridiculously good against division opponents this season. They are surrendering a mere 87.4 points per game in those games. When playing at home Indiana has allowed an average of just 86.3 points per game. Now the Pacers have the luxury of facing a Milwaukee team that only averages 93.3 points per game, which makes the under an easy call in this matchup.

Milwaukee may not have a great record, but they are not a bad team defensively. Against division opponents the Bucks have allowed 99.1 points per game, and simply matching that average makes the under a very attractive play. The under is 22-9 when Milwaukee is a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. I expect to see the Pacers take a big early lead and have a lot of clock killing possessions late in this game that ensure we stay under the total.

This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have set the total too high because of recent performances rather than how these teams actually match up. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points after one of the teams scored 110 points or more in two straight games (Indiana), and they are playing against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. This system has a 24-5 (83%) record in favor of the under.

4* Vegas Insider on Chattanooga +

Western Carolina has benefit from a fairly soft schedule this season, and I think they are clearly outmatched against Chattanooga tonight. The Catamounts are 8-30 ATS when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games after 15 or more games in the season. They are also 33-58 ATS when playing against any team with a winning record after 15 or more games.

The Catamounts have been successful at home because of their ability to score a lot of points. Their defense is not good, but they average 79.5 points per game. They will not have the luxury of simply forcing the Mocs into a shootout in this game because Chattanooga is every bit as good on offense as the Catamounts. The Mocs are averaging just shy of 77 points per game this season.

These teams are very even statistically, which is a good indication that this will be a very close game. In fact, it is a matchup that could easily be won by either team. Both teams average similar numbers in rebounding, turnovers and shooting percentage, with a slight edge actually going to the Mocs who are making almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. I expect this game to be very close, with Chattanooga having a good opportunity to win straight up in the end.

5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte +

The wrong team is favored in this Conference USA showdown. The Charlotte 49ers are a much better team than their 14-12 record indicates, and I think we are getting a lot of value on today's line because of their recent slump. The East Carolina Pirates are the perfect opponent to end that recent slide.

The Pirates are a not a team that gains a lot of benefit when playing at home. In fact, they have a 3-6 record against the spread in those games. They are not getting a big boost on the offensive end of the court, averaging 1.5 points per game more at home than they do overall. The Pirates are getting way too much credit because of their recent performances against Louisiana Tech and Rice. Tech was without their best player, and Rice is the worst team in the conference, so those wins should not buy a lot of credibility.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 49ers. You should play on road underdogs like Charlotte when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more of their last seven games, and they are facing an opponent that has covered the spread in four of their last five games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a tendency to overcompensate on the lines. It has resulted in a 164-95 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Stanford +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup when the red hot Stanford Cardinal take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Stanford has won five of its last six games and covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games. The Sun Devils on the other hand come into this matchup having lost two in a row, and they they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

These teams have put up comparable numbers in points scored and points allowed, and they have very comparable records. However, Stanford is still the better team in this matchup. The Cardinal have a 3-1 record against ranked opponents this season, and they have proved to be the better rebounding team and ball control team. Stanford has allowed opponents a mere eight offensive rebounds per game, and they are committing just 11 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have allowed opponents double-digits in offensive rebounds and average 12 turnovers per game.

Stanford is 8-1 ATS against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season. They are also 8-2 ATS against teams committing less than 14 turnovers per game. Arizona State has struggled against good three point shooting teams. Stanford is knocking down just over 38 percent of their three point attempts, and the Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS against teams making over 37 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games in the season.

3* Bailout Blowout on Brooklyn Nets +

Portland just played on the road in Denver last night, and now they will host the Nets in the second half of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest. The Nets have been playing extremely well recently, picking up wins in six of their last nine games while Portland has been struggling to hover around .500 for the past month.

The Blazers have surrendered 103.8 points per game over their last five games. That should provide a nice scoring boost to the Nets tonight. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing some outstanding defense recently allowing just 95 points per game over their last five games.

Brooklyn is 13-2 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in the last 14 days. They are also 20-8 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. Portland on the other hand comes into this matchup with a 15-29 ATS record over the last three seasons after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Phoenix Suns have played soft defense all season. They are allowing 101.9 points per game, and they should give up another big number tonight against the Jazz. The Suns were at home last night in a losing effort against Minnesota, and now they have to play in a back-to-back situation against a rested Jazz team that is coming off a confidence boosting win over Boston in their last outing.

The Utah offense has been on fire recently. Over their last five games the Jazz have averaged 102.4 points per game. While nobody will confuse Utah for a great defensive team, their 100.3 points per game allowed at home is still an advantage over the defensive numbers Phoenix has put up, especially when you consider the fact that Utah's opponents have a slightly higher scoring average than the Suns have faced this year.

This matchup fits into a profitable system to play on the Jazz. You should take home underdogs like Utah when they are well rested, playing five or less games in the last 14 days, and they have a losing record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the rested team, and it has resulted in a 49-27 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* No Brainer on California +

The Golden Bears picked up a two point win the last time they faced Arizona, and a change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by the amount of points it will take for Arizona to cover the spread. The oddsmakers have been giving the Wildcats far too much credit recently. Arizona has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games, and the Wildcats have two straight up losses during that stretch.

The Golden Bears matchup well with Arizona, and that makes this double-digit line far too many points. Cal is a great rebounding team putting up comparable numbers to the Wildcats. The Golden Bears also have a slight advantage in turnovers, committing 10 per game while the Wildcats commit 11 turnovers per game. The Golden Bears have shown several times throughout the year that they are an underrated team defensively. They held the Wildcats to a mere 58 points in the first meeting of the season.

This matchup fits into a system to fade the Wildcats. You should play against home teams like Arizona when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts and they are +6 or more in rebounding margin, when they are facing a team allowing 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and are +3 to +6 in rebounding margin. This system identifies matchups where the home team is being overvalued, and it has resulted in an 83-40 (68%) record against the spread.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Cavaliers look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost three consecutive games, and now have to play on the road against one of the best teams in the league. There is not a lot to motivate Cleveland at this point, so I expect to see the Cavaliers struggle in this matchup with the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is averaging 106.2 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up another huge number against this Cavaliers team that has surrendered 104.4 points per game on the road. Cleveland is also playing in a tough spot after losing at home to Toronto last night and now playing the second half of a back-to-back against one of the league's best teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they have been outscored by their opponents by three or more points per game, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a matchup allowing 120 points or more. This system is an 88-56 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Golden State Warriors -

The Chicago Bulls are in a tough spot tonight after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days. Typically the first thing to go for a tired team is its defense, and unfortunately for Chicago, the defense is the only thing that has allowed them to remain competitive this season.

Golden State has been playing extremely well recently. The Warriors have won five of their last six games with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point against Miami. Over their last five games the Warriors have averaged 102 points per game, while surrendering a mere 96.8 points per game. Golden State's defense should have no problem shutting down this Bulls team that averages just 92.8 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to fade Chicago. You should play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road win. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 90-48 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Mountain West Game of the Month on San Jose State +

San Diego State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their win over Kansas in the first half of the season has earned them far more credit than they are worthy of. The Aztecs are lucky to have a three loss season. They came dangerously close to losing against Utah State in January, and they have recently played several games that were much closer than the final score would indicate.

San Jose State is typically a very good ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game on the season. In the first meeting of the season between these teams they had an uncharacteristically poor night of turnovers. While a small portion of that can be credited to San Diego State's defense, I think the majority of it was an anomaly. San Diego State typically only forces an average of 14 turnovers per game, and the Spartans posted 18 turnovers in that matchup. With less turnovers in this second meeting of the season San Jose State should easily be able to decrease their margin of loss to a number under 20 points.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road underdogs of 20 points or more like San Jose State when they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more and have a losing record on the season. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers because of their record, and it has resulted in a 54-22 (71%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Utah State +

New Mexico is playing in a letdown spot today coming off a win over No. 6 ranked San Diego State in their last outing. They also have a tough road game on deck, so the Lobos are playing the perfect situation to look past the Utah state Aggies tonight. For the Aggies this will be the last ranked opponent on the schedule this year, so they should be playing with plenty of motivation.

The Lobos have a single digit margin of victory against conference opponents this season, and I don't think they will be able to repeat the performance from the last time these teams met. Utah State is a very good rebounding team, and they had a poor showing on the boards in that game. With a closer rebounding margin in this matchup the Lobos will not get the extra shot attempts they had in that first meeting of the season, and that will lead to a the game being decided by a single digit margin.

This matchup fits into a system to play against New Mexico. You should fade teams like the Lobos when they are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent, and they have won over 80% of their games on the season and are facing a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games. This system is 106-70 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Chicago Bulls -

The Bulls are the better team, and they are the hot team coming into this matchup with Atlanta. Chicago has won five of its last six games both straight up and against the spread. I look for them to bounce back with a strong performance after losing to Miami in their last outing.

The Hawks defense has been bad all season allowing 101.5 points per game, but they have been especially bad recently allowing 107.8 points per game over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have surrendered a mere 87 points per game over their last five games. I don't think Chicago will have any problem shutting Atlanta down in this game since the Hawks offense is also in decline compared to their season numbers, averaging just 98.4 points per game the last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulls. You should play against home teams with a line under three points when they are revenging a loss to their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 141-84 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia Tech +

While nobody will confuse Virginia Tech for a great team, they are certainly good enough to keep this game within 20 points. The Hokies have played some great basketball recently. They took Pittsburgh to double overtime on the road, beat Miami, stuck to within four points of No. 14 ranked Virginia and lost by just seven points to NC State. Virginia Tech has lost by 21 points or more only twice this season, and those matchups did not come in any of their four games played against ranked opponents.

The Blue Devils have played some great basketball this year, but I don't think they have played well enough to justify a 20+ point line. They are averaging 75.6 points per game against conference opponents, while allowing 64.9 points in those games. Their average margin of victory is nowhere near enough to cover such a large spread. The Blue Devils are also playing in a letdown spot after beating No. 1 Syracuse in their last outing.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Virginia Tech. You should play against favorites of 20 points or more like Duke when they have covered the spread in six of their last eight games and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 32-9 (78%) against the spread.

5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks -

The New York Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven of those 10 matchups. New York has surrendered 106.2 points per game over its last five games which is very telling about their lack of effort recently.

The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won eight of their last 10 games. They are facing a Knicks team that is 2-10 ATS in home games when facing a non-conference opponent this season. The Knicks are also 9-20 ATS as an underdog, and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this year. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have proved to be a great team to back when playing on the road. They are 20-10 ATS, and should easily improve on that number today.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Mavericks. You should play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and they are playing a poor defensive team that has surrendered 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 55-23 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Samford -

The Citadel Bulldogs are the worst team in the Southern Conference. They have yet to win a game against a conference opponent, with the average loss in those games coming by 12 points. Defensively Citadel has been horrible this season. They are surrendering 75 points per game so the Samford Bulldogs should have no problem getting points on the board.

Samford is a much better shooting team than the Citadel. The Samford Bulldogs are making 47.4 percent of their shot attempts to 42.1 percent from the Citadel Bulldogs. Samford is 11-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games while the Citadel is 20-37 ATS in home games when playing a team with a losing record.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Samford. You should play against home teams like the Citadel when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts, but allow opponents to make over 36.5 percent of their three point attempts in a game involving two teams that are -3 to -6 in rebounding margin after 15 or more games. This system has a 39-13 (75%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Washington State +

The Ducks got off to a fast start during non-conference play this season, but they have really struggled against Pac-12 opponents. I think they are still one of the most overrated teams in the conference, and that is backed up by the fact that they have a 4-9 ATS record in conference games. Washington State may not have a great record, but they are playing better recently. They have been within 14 points or less in five of their last six games, which includes several road games against some very good Pac-12 teams.

This line is also being inflated higher than it should be due to the result of the first meeting of the season between these teams. I think that game can be chalked up as an anomaly because there is no way the Cougars will shoot 25 percent from the field again. I don't credit Washington State's poor shooting in that game to solid defensive play from the Ducks either. Oregon has actually proved to be soft defensively this season surrendering 75.1 points per game and allowing opponents to make over 44 percent of their shot attempts.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington State when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and they are coming off two consecutive losses of 10 points or more to conference opponents. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team, and it has resulted in a 261-176 (60%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the league, and they should pick up a big win at home against Washington today. Cleveland has won six of its last seven games, covering the spread in all seven of those matchups. The Wizards on the other hand are coming into this game having lost five of their last eight games.

A big reason for the Cavaliers recent success has been outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games they have held opponents to just 92.8 points per game. Cleveland has also turned things on offensively, scoring 101.6 points per game during that five game stretch. They should have another big night against the Wizards because Washington will be run down playing in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting New Orleans last night.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cavaliers. You should play against teams like Washington that are revenging a loss to their opponent when the line is three points or less, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 228-137 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Rider -

Rider should have no problem dominating this game from start to finish. Siena has been horrible on the road this season posting a 3-12 record. They are averaging a mere 67.8 points while allowing 75.4 points in road games. I expect them to give up a big number against Rider today since the Broncs are a strong team offensively averaging 75.3 points per game at home.

The Broncs will have a big advantage in turnover margin today. Siena has been a horrible ball control team this season. They are committing 15 turnovers per game, while forcing just 11 turnovers from opponents when playing on the road. Rider on the other hand has averaged 13 turnover per game, but when playing at home they are forcing an average of 15 turnovers from their opponents.

Rider is a very good three point shooting team. They are making over 40 percent of their attempts this season. Siena has struggled against good three point shooting teams, posting a 3-11 ATS record against teams making over 37 percent of their attempts. Siena is also 4-13 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 turnovers per game or less after 15 or more games on the season.

4* Ivy league Game of the Week on Yale +

Yale plus the points is an easy call in this matchup. The Bulldogs have been on fire recently, winning nine of their last 10 games and posting a 7-2 ATS record during that stretch. Columbia on the other hand has been struggling, losing four of their last seven games both straight up and against the spread. Yale is second in the Ivy League standings with an 8-1 record. Harvard currently holds first place with a 9-1 conference record, but the Bulldogs won at Harvard earlier this month.

Yale is a very good rebounding team. They average 10 offensive rebounds per game, and that should give them a big advantage over the Lions. Columbia is not a strong rebounding team so I expect to see the Bulldogs getting a lot of second chance shot attempts. The Bulldogs are also a very good foul drawing team, forcing opponents to commit an average of 22 personal fouls per game. Those extra attempts from the free throw line give the Bulldogs a huge advantage late in the game.

Columbia's poor pressure defense will cost them today. Yale is 22-8 ATS in road games against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games. They are also 9-1 ATS against teams winning 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. The Bulldogs have also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams. Over the last three seasons Yale is both 4-1 straight up and against the spread when facing the Lions. These teams met last month and the Bulldogs picked up a 10 point win. A change in venue will not be enough to swing things in the Lions favor today.

4* Vegas Insider on on BYU -

The Cougars will have several key statistical advantages in this matchup. First of all, they rank third in the country averaging 85.1 points per game. The Pilots do not have enough scoring options to keep pace with BYU. The Cougars are also the sixth ranked team in the country in rebounds per game with 41.4.

The advantages don't end in scoring and on the boards. BYU has also proved the be the better ball control team this season. They are averaging a mere 11 turnovers per game, and are poised to improve on that number against the soft Portland defense. The Pilots only statistical advantage in this matchup is their free throw shooting ability, but that won't do them a lot of good against this Cougars team that does a great job of staying out of foul trouble when playing at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on an explosive offensive team like BYU when they are averaging over 76 points per game and playing a team that averages 74 to 76 points per game, after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. This system is 221-143 (61%) against the spread.

3* Main Event on Washington Wizards -

The Washington Wizards are coming off a big road win in their last outing. They have had two days of rest to prepare for this matchup where they will host a Pelicans team that has lost four of its last five games. The Wizards have put up solid numbers at home this season. They are averaging 100.9 points per game, and should have no problem scoring on a New Orleans defense that has allowed 103.1 points per game when playing on the road.

The Pelicans are playing in a very tough spot. This will be their third game in the last four days, and the second half of a back-to-back set of road games. New Orleans has been really struggling recently on the offensive end of the court. Over their last five games they are averaging a mere 92.4 points per game. I don't think the Pelicans can keep this game close given their tough schedule and lack of offense being produced right now.

These teams met last month in New Orleans and it was Washington that left with a six point win. The Pelicans are 0-10 ATS when revenging a straight up loss at home as a favorite. The Wizards have been a great team to back in non-conference matchups over the last two seasons. They have a 33-18 ATS record in those games, and that is a trend that should continue today against the Pelicans.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Rice +

While overall records may favor East Carolina, these teams are actually much closer in talent level than this line indicates. When you look at how they have performed against common opponents it is easy to see that Rice is every bit as good as East Carolina. The Owls are 2-10 against C-USA opponents, while the Pirates are 3-9 against C-USA teams. Both teams have averaged around 60 points per game against their common opponents while surrendering close to 70 points per game.

Rice will have an advantage on the boards in this matchup. They have limited opponents to just nine offensive rebounds per game this season to 11 allowed by the Pirates. These teams also have comparable styles of play, with both relying heavily on their three-point shooting ability. If Rice gets hot from three-point land, the Owls will not only have a chance to cover the spread, but also win this game straight up. The Owls average 26 three point attempts per game on the road and are making 34 percent of those attempts which is right in line with the Pirates shooting percentages on an average of 24 three-point attempts.

The Owls are 19-7 ATS against teams who make eight or more three-point shots per game after 15 or more games. East Carolina is 39-65 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games and they are 40-68 ATS after four straight games of forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. With the way these teams matchup I expect this to be a very close game.

5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on La Salle +

The Explorers have played a tough stretch of games recently, and I think that has them coming into this matchup against Richmond a little underrated. La Salle is a much better team than their record indicates, and I like them to play a great game against the Spiders. Richmond has been extremely inconsistent this season and they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers when playing at home leading to a losing record against the spread.

Statistically this matchup should be very close. The Explorers are averaging 68.5 points per game while the Spiders are averaging 69.4 points per game. Defensively La Salle has played extremely well on the road, allowing a mere 66.8 points per game. Richmond is allowing 66 points per game overall this season. This game could go either way, but it will almost certainly be close and that means the value is with La Salle.

Richmond is a team that relies heavily on their ability to win the turnover margin. They are 11-22 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Spiders are not a good ball movement team, and I think that plays into La Salle's favor. The Explorers are 23-9 ATS against poor passing teams that are averaging less than 12 assists per game after 15 or more games.

4* No Brainer on Tulsa -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. These teams may have similar overall records, but Tulsa is clearly the better team. The Golden Hurricane have a 9-3 record against conference opponents this season, while the Golden Panthers come into this matchup with a 5-7 record against C-USA opponents. Tulsa is 10-2 against the spread in those games.

The Golden Hurricane's biggest advantage in this matchup is their defense. Over their last five games they have held opponents to a mere 53.8 points per game. Against all conference opponents they are surrendering 61.6 points per game. That gives Tulsa a big advantage over this Florida International team that is allowing over 70 points per game this season. The Golden Panthers have not been a high scoring team either, averaging a mere 65.9 points per game at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Hurricane. You should play on road favorites that are coming off three straight wins over conference opponents, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 84-31 (67%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Central Florida +

Central Florida is the better team, and I like their chances to pull off the upset in Houston today. We will take the points, but the Cougars are clearly outmatched in this game. They have lost seven of their last eight games and are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding anytime soon.

Central Florida is on a bit of a losing streak too, but six of their last seven losses have come against ranked opponents. They have played an incredibly difficult schedule recently, and that should make the Cougars look like more like a practice squad today. Over their last five games the Cougars have surrendered 77 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Central Florida. You should play on a road team like the Knights in a matchup involving two teams allowing 67 to 74 points per game, when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 218-135 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

Prior to the All-Star break it appeared that Portland's season was quickly falling apart. The Blazers lost six of their last nine games entering the break. With a chance to regroup Portland was expected to get right back to their winning ways, but that was not the case coming out of the All-Star break. The Blazers were a three point home favorite against the Spurs, and ended up losing that game outright.

Utah comes into this matchup having won three of its last four games. The Jazz will never be mistaken for a playoff contender this year, but I do think they are more than capable of sticking close with the Blazers. Portland got off to a fast start this season, but that quickly earned them a reputation as one of the league's most overrated teams. I think the oddsmakers are still giving the Blazers more credit than they deserve, and that makes the Jazz a solid value play today.

Portland is 2-11 ATS in home games when coming off three or more consecutive losses. They are also 13-24 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Jazz on the other hand come into this matchup with a 66-43 ATS record when coming off two straight games outrebounding opponents by 10 or more boards. Utah is playing quality basketball right now, and I think they will give the Blazers a scare in this matchup.

4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Suns OVER

There has been no shortage of scoring from both of these teams coming out of the All-Star break. Over their last five games the Spurs have averaged 106.4 points per game. They put up 113 points against the Clippers in their first game following the break, then scored 111 points on Portland in the second half of a back-to-back. The defense has not been great either, allowing 102.6 points per game over their last five.

For the Suns it has been business as usual on offense. They average 107.6 points per game at home this season, and are scoring 107.8 points per game over their last five. The value on the over from Phoenix' side of things comes from the fact that the defense that has allowed 101.8 points per game overall this season is giving up an astonishing 107 points per game over their last five games. Now they will be tasked with facing a great offensive team like the Spurs, which should lead to a lot of points being scored tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the over. You should take the over when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off a win by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two straight wins by six points or less. The Spurs squeaked by Portland in their last outing, and the Suns picked up wins over Denver and Boston by five and six points, respectively. This system is 130-73 (64%) in favor of the over.

4* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Chicago Bulls -

This matchup features two teams that are headed in completely opposite directions. Chicago comes into this game having won five of their last six games, including the last four consecutive, while the Nuggets are trying to avoid a sixth consecutive loss. Denver has now lost seven of its last nine games, eight of those nine also resulting in losses against the spread.

After a slow start to the season many were ready to write the Bulls off. However, their outstanding defensive play gives them a chance against even the best teams in the league. Luckily, tonight they are not facing one of the best teams. Chicago has surrendered a mere 90.1 points per game, and they have the luxury of hosting a Denver team that is suffering through a major scoring slump. The Nuggets are averaging 95.2 points per game over their last five games, while allowing over 118 points per game on the defensive end of the court.

Something is really wrong in Denver right now, and the Nuggets are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding anytime soon. The Nuggets are 12-24 ATS when playing their second game in five games over the last two seasons. This is the second half of a back-to-back situation for the Nuggets after playing on the road against Milwaukee last night. The Bulls on the other hand are coming into this game with a day of rest, and with home court advantage I think they make easy work of the Nuggets.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers +

The Cavaliers entered the All-Star Break winning four consecutive games, and coming out of the break they are showing no signs of slowing down. Cleveland picked up back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Orlando in their last two outings, making it six consecutive victories for the Cavaliers. Now they have the luxury of facing a Raptors team that coming off split of back-to-back games coming out of the break.

The Cavaliers are playing great basketball on both ends of the court right now. The defense has been a soft spot for Cleveland this season, but over its past five games the Cavaliers have surrendered a mere 89.8 points per game. The offense is scoring 101.6 points per game during that stretch which has given them a double-digit margin of victory. That puts the Raptors in a very tough spot facing a red hot team like the Cavaliers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Toronto. You should fade home favorites when they have won two of their last three games, and they are facing an opponent that has won six or more of their last eight games. This system has a 138-81 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back against the spread when they are playing on the road. It seems the oddsmakers have once again undervalued the 49ers in tonight's matchup with Cal-Davis. The Aggies are suffering through a rough season, and with only six games left it looks like they are ready to throw in the towel early.

The 49ers may not have a great overall record, but that is because of an extremely difficult non-conference schedule. In conference play Long Beach State has posted a 7-4 record, and they currently sit in third place in the Big West standings. Long Beach State still has a lot to play for, and I think they will come out and play a complete game against the Aggies, taking an early lead and never looking back.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Cal-Davis. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Aggies when they are trying to revenge a same season loss, and they are coming off two straight losses against conference opponents. This system has a 160-92 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout on Southern Utah +

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds have a good chance to pick up their first Big Sky win of the season tonight. They played Portland State last month in Portland and managed to stick to within three points. This time the venue changes and with home court advantage I like Southern Utah to play a great game.

These teams seem to be heading in opposite directions right now. Portland State is getting worse, riding a four game losing streak coming into this matchup. The Thunderbirds are not winning games, but they are certainly playing better basketball now than they did earlier this season. Over their last five games the Thunderbirds have surrendered a mere 67.2 points per game. Portland State is allowing 73.1 points per game to conference opponents and 75.1 points per game on the road, and I think the Vikings will struggle against the Thunderbirds tonight.

You should play against favorites like Portland State when they are coming off an upset loss to a conference opponent and they have won 40 to 49% of their games on the season, and they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 63-29 (69%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Based on the way this game ended the last time these teams met, we are getting a lot of value on the Thunderbirds tonight.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat +

The Thunder have not played in a week, and now they will be tasked with facing a very motivated Miami Heat team. Miami needs a strong second half performance this season to catch up with the Indiana Pacers as the No. 1 seed in the East. The Heat put on a dominating performance in their first game following the All-Star break, handing the Mavericks an 11-point loss in Dallas.

Miami has an underrated defense, and I like their chances to keep the Thunder in check tonight. The Heat have held opponents to 98.4 points per game on the road this season. The Thunder on the other hand did not play well defensively entering the All-Star break. Oklahoma City was surrendering 99.6 points per game their last five games, which is quite a bit higher than their overall defensive scoring average on the season.

Miami is 8-0 ATS in road games when facing a team that is averaging 103 points per game or more over the last two seasons. They are 36-20 ATS in road games against teams that attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The Heat are also a great team to back when playing for revenge. They are 19-8 ATS when revenging a same season loss against their opponent, and after losing to the Thunder in the last meeting I like their chances to pick up a win today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Jacksonville State +

This is a lot of points for Jacksonville State to be receiving in a game that features two evenly matched teams. The Gamecocks and Redhawks have similar records against Ohio Valley opponents, and statistically it is the Gamecocks that have the advantage. SE Missouri State has not received a lot of benefit at home this year, posting a 6-4 overall record, but a 0-7 record against the spread in those games.

The Gamecocks defense will be their biggest advantage in this matchup. They have held opponents to 69.4 points per game this season while the Redhawks are surrendering 78.1 points per game. What makes the Redhawks defense so bad is the fact that their opponents are only averaging 70.3 points per game. When playing at home their defensive scoring average increases to 79 points per game.

Jacksonville State has been a great team to back against the spread when facing a good shooting team. Their underrated defense gives them a lot of value in these situations. They have a 14-1 ATS record against teams making 48 percent or more of their shot attempts after 15 or more games. When the Redhawks defense is not forcing turnovers they have been a good team to fade. SE Missouri State is 9-18 ATS after four straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Troy +

The oddsmakers are not giving Troy enough credit in this matchup against Louisiana-Lafayette. The Trojans may not have a great record against Sun Belt opponents, but that is not because they are not playing in some very close games. Almost two-thirds of Troy's losses this season have come by 10 points or less, and since they are playing for revenge in this game I expect the Trojans to play a close one against the Ragin' Cajuns.

Troy is the better defensive team in this matchup. The Trojans have held opponents to 70.3 points per game this season, which may not seem great at first glance, but that number is below their opponents' offensive scoring average. The Rajin' Cajuns on the other hand have surrendered 74.9 points per game, which is three points per game more than their opponents' offensive scoring average. In the first matchup of the season UL-Lafayette benefited from one of their best shooting performances of the year. It is unlikely they will be able to repeat that feat again today which adds value to on the Trojans.

You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like the Rajin' Cajuns when they are averaging 76 points per game or more and scoring 80 or more points in two straight games, and they are facing a team allowing 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games. This system is 70-37 (65%) against the spread. UL-Lafayette put up 93 points against Little Rock and 85 against Arkansas State in its last two games, and I think that has them coming into this matchup a little overrated.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Arizona -

The Wildcats are an easy call in this matchup against Utah. The Utes soft schedule at home has earned them a reputation they do not deserve. Utah is 16-1 in those games, but they have only hosted one top ranked team this season, and it was a two point loss to Oregon. We now know the Ducks are nowhere near as good as their ranking indicated, but we also know Arizona is every bit as good as its No. 4 in the country ranking.

The Wildcats have the fourth ranked scoring defense in the country. They are surrendering a mere 57.5 points per game this season. That is an impressive feat when you look at some of the high scoring teams they have faced this season. The Wildcats held Duke to a mere 66 points in non-conference play, and they held the nation's No. 11 ranked team in points per game (83.1), UCLA, to 75 points on the Bruin's home court. The last time they played Utah the Wildcats allowed just 56 points.

While the Utes might look like the higher scoring team at first glance, when you dig a little deeper you will find the Wildcats also have an offensive advantage. Sure, Utah is scoring 78.7 points per game, but that has come against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 74.2 points per game. I give the nod to the Wildcats who are averaging 73.1 points against teams with a defensive scoring average of 68.7 points. It is the same story on the defensive end of the court where Arizona is actually allowing less points against higher scoring teams. The disparity in talent between these teams is much larger than the 4.5 point line indicates.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston Celtics +

Not only are the Phoenix Suns playing in a back-to-back situation, they are also coming off an overtime game that was played in the mile high altitude in Denver. The Celtics are an easy call in this matchup getting such a large number. Phoenix has struggled defensively at home this year, and given the tough back-to-back situation they are playing in, I think the Celtics will give the Suns a scare tonight.

The Suns are surrendering 102 points per game at home. Their poor defensive play should allow the Celtics to put a number on the board that makes covering an eight point spread a very easy task to accomplish. Boston will be well prepared for this matchup since it is their first game coming out of the All-Star break. That extra rest will be a big advantage for tonight's game.

In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team has a 13-6 ATS record in the last 19 meetings. The Celtics have an 8-3 ATS record against Pacific division teams, and a 6-2 ATS record when playing with three or more days of rest. The Suns lost three of their last four games prior to the break, and they struggled to squeak past the Nuggets last night. Meanwhile, the Celtics won four of their last six entering the break, and I think they play a close game with the Suns tonight.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls +

Toronto is playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after playing on the road against Washington last night. Playing on back-to-back nights is hard enough on its own, but facing a solid defense like the Bulls should be even harder to overcome. Chicago caught fire at the right time winning four of their last five games entering the All-Star break, and I like their chances to carry that momentum forward for the second half of the season.

The Bulls may not score a lot of points, but they make up for their lack of offense with one of the best defenses in the league. They have held opponents to a mere 92.3 points per game this season, and over their past five games the Bulls have done even better allowing just 88.2 points per game. Chicago has had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup since this is their first game out of the All-Star break.

You should play on teams like Chicago when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss as a home favorite, and they are extremely well rested playing three or less games in the last 10 days. This system has a 39-15 (72%) record against the spread. The Raptors may have won the last meeting, but Chicago is playing like a completely different team in the New Year, and I like their chances to pick up close win on the road in this matchup.

5* Total No Brainer on Magic/Cavaliers OVER

This matchup features two very poor defensive teams, and two offenses that have the ability to catch fire. The value in this matchup is clearly going to be on the over. Orlando is surrendering 102.3 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 102 points per game overall. Neither of these teams has done a lot of scoring this year, and I think that is the biggest reason for such a low total. That will change tonight since the competition is soft both ways.

For a tired team the first thing to go is usually the defense. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation. I expect their defense to be even worse than normal for this game. Orlando is also playing in a back-to-back after losing on the road against Milwaukee last night in a game they surrendered 104 points.

The Cavaliers have a history of going over the total against Southeast division teams. The over has a 5-1 record in their last six games against that division, and it is 11-3 in Cleveland's last 14 games against a team with a losing record. For Orlando, the over is 43-26 the last three seasons when they are revenging a road loss to their opponent. With two soft defenses playing in a tough back-to-back situation, I expect to see a lot of points going on the board tonight.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston College +

Syracuse is a team that looks like it is falling victim to the pressure that comes with being the No. 1 ranked team in the country with an undefeated record. The Orange have come close to blowing their perfect season in four of their last five games. Boston College may not have a great record, but they simply haven't lived up to their potential this season. They have the talent to keep up with the best teams in the country, and that is exactly what I expect to see them do against the Orange in this matchup.

This should be a low scoring game. Syracuse is not a team that scores a lot of points, averaging just 69.4 points per game at home this season. When these teams met last month the Eagles put up 59 points, losing by a mere 10 points. That game was much closer than the final score indicates because the Orange pulled away thanks to some late free throws. While it is likely Syracuse is going to pick up its second win over Boston College, it does not seem likely that it will come by 15 or more points. This line simply overvalues Syracuse, especially with the way the Orange have been playing recently.

You should play against home favorites like Syracuse when they are favored by 10 to 19.5 points and are coming off a home win over a conference opponent, and facing a team that is coming off an upset loss at home as a favorite. This system to fade the home team has resulted in a 106-62 (63%) record against the spread. It identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Utah State +

I think we are getting a lot of value on the Aggies in this matchup. The last time these teams met Utah State took the Aztecs to overtime, losing by just five points. The change in venue will not be enough to swing the outcome of this game by a double-digit margin. San Diego State has been overrated for most of the season, and while they may have a 12-1 record as the home team, they have a losing record (4-6) against the spread in those games.

Utah State is a dominant rebounding team. They are +7 in rebounding margin this season, and typically do a great job of preventing their opponents from picking up offensive rebounds. In the first meeting of the season the Aggies uncharacteristically lost that battle, and it is unlikely that will take place again. The Aggies are also a very good ball control team averaging 11 turnovers per game, and suffered a lopsided defeat in turnover margin in that game. I think both of those areas will be a little more even in this matchup, which will make it extremely difficult for the Aztecs to cover a double-digit number.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like San Diego State when they are coming off a home win over a conference opponent, and facing a team that is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite like Utah State. This system identifies matchups where the home favorite is being overvalued. It has resulted in a 106-62 (63%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Red Raiders picked up a win against an Oklahoma State team that we now know is nowhere near as good as preseason predictions. They also picked up a win over a mediocre Oklahoma team, and played a close game against a very overrated Iowa State team. Their recent performance has earned them a little too much credit from the oddsmakers, and that has created a lot of value on Kansas in today's matchup.

The Jayhawks are clearly the best team in the Big 12, and there is a lot of disparity in talent between them and every other team in the conference. Kansas is averaging 80.1 points per game against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 68.9 points per game. On the defensive end of the court they have surrendered a mere 69.9 points per game against opponents with an offensive scoring average of 75.2 points per game. Texas Tech on the other hand is scoring below its opponents defensive scoring average, and while the defense has been solid, I don't think they will have an answer for all the scoring options on this Jayhawks roster.

The Jayhawks have been a great team to back when coming off a blowout win. They absolutely destroyed TCU in their last outing by picking up a 30 point win. Kansas is 12-4 ATS over the last two seasons following a win by 20 points or more. The Jayhawks are a great foul drawing team, getting to the free throw line for an average of 27 attempts per game. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in home games against teams attempting 25 or more free throws per game after 15 or more games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers should come out of the All-Star break with a strong performance against the 76ers. Cleveland was on the verge of a turnaround going into the break, picking up four consecutive upset wins as an underdog. Now, with plenty of rest, they face one of the leagues worst teams. The 76ers lost eight consecutive games going into the break, and they were playing like a team that has completely given up on the season.

Over the last five games the Cavaliers have averaged 103.2 points per game. That trend should continue tonight against a 76ers defense that is surrendering an average of 110.7 points per game at home. Over Philadelphia's last five games, it surrendered a whopping 115.4 points per game. These teams met last month in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers picked up an 18 point win. A change in venue will not be enough to change the fortunes of the 76ers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the 76ers. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia after six or more consecutive losses, when they are playing in the second half of the season. This system has a 37-13 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Davidson -

The last time these teams met Davidson picked up a 19 point win. With Citadel coming into this matchup having lost 15 consecutive games, it is safe to say they have thrown in the towel on their season. Davidson still has a lot to play for as the Wildcats try to hold onto first place in the Southern Conference.

The Wildcats have a dominating statistical advantage in this matchup. They are averaging 78.9 points per game on the road, which is a full eight points over their opponents defensive scoring average. The Citadel has been horrible defensively, allowing 4.9 points per game more than than their opponents offensive scoring average. In the first meeting of the season between these teams, Citadel had an above average shooting performance and still lost in a blowout. Over their last five games the Bulldogs have shot 39.9 percent from the field, so I don't think they will be able to decrease that margin of loss in today's matchup.

Davidson has been a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-5 ATS in road games, which includes a 6-0 ATS record in road games against conference opponents. When the Bulldogs are unable to force turnovers they are a great team to fade. The Citadel is 8-22 ATS after three straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or less turnovers. Davidson has been a great ball control team all year, and in the first meeting of the season they had a mere nine turnovers.

4* MAAC Game of the Week on Marist +

These teams are headed in completely opposite directions. Marist has won four of its last five games, while Monmouth has dropped six consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in five of those six. The Hawks have also been horrible in MAAC play, posting a 4-11 record as they sit in ninth place in the conference standings.

Statistically the Red Foxes have several key advantages. First of all, they are a much better defensive team. Marist has surrendered 70.8 points per game to opponents with an offensive scoring average of 72.7 points per game. Monmouth on the other hand is allowing 73.7 points per game against opponents averaging 72.2 points per game. Marist also has a turnover advantage, committing just 13 total turnovers per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs when they are playing their third game in a week and have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 286-189 (60%) against the spread. It is a good way to find teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, which appears to be the case with the Red Foxes today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Rice +

Since Raheem Appleby went out Louisiana Tech has not been winning its games in the same dominating fashion they did earlier in the season. The Bulldogs are 1-3 against the spread in the four games that Appleby has missed, so I think there is a lot of value on Rice as such a large underdog in today's matchup. The Owls have won two of their last three games against the spread.

Statistically the Bulldogs certainly have an advantage, but I don't think it is enough to justify a near 20 point line. The Owls defense has surrendered 70.3 points per game this season, which makes them an above average defense in comparison to Louisiana Tech's opponents who have a combined defensive scoring average of 73.5 points per game. The Bulldogs are an average defensive team, allowing just shy of 68 points per game. While they will likely win this game, I don't think they will be able to score enough points to cover this spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bulldogs. You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Louisiana Tech when they are coming off a game where both teams scored 75 points or more and they are playing only their second game in the last eight days. This system has a 150-96 (62%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout on Loyola Marymount +

Gonzaga is nowhere near as good as the team many thought they would be prior to the start of the season. While they have an impressive 22-4 record, they have not played a very difficult schedule this season. What's most alarming about the Bulldogs performance is the fact that they are not dominating weaker opponents like they should be. Gonzaga has won only five of their 13 conference games by a margin larger than 10 points.

The Lions are a much better team than their record indicates. They are averaging 74.3 points per game, and I expect them to put up a respectable number in this matchup against the Bulldogs. The last time these teams met the Lions scored 72 points. Gonzaga shot well above their typical shooting percentage in that game while the Lions shot slightly below average. I don't expect the disparity in shooting percentages to be as large in this second meeting of the season, so there is no reason to believe the Bulldogs will be able to increase their margin of victory by enough points to cover the spread regardless of the venue change.

This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overreacted based on recent performances. You should play on underdogs that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games when they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system has a 49-20 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver +

The schedule has been anything but easy for the Pioneers this season, and while the records may not indicate it, I think they are the better team in this matchup with IPFW. Denver has won five of its last seven games, which includes two double-digit victories on the road. The Mastodons have lost two of their last three, with that lone win coming by a mere six points against the 9-15 South Dakota Coyotes.

Defenses generally travel well, and that has definitely been the case for Denver this season. They are allowing 63.2 points per game overall, but that number dips down to 62.5 points per game surrendered when playing on the road. The Mastodons defense has been soft, especially at home. They are allowing 72.2 points per game in home games, and their soft defense will prove costly in this matchup against the Pioneers.

The oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue road teams that are revenging a home loss and playing with one or less days of rest. In this situation the road team has a 361-250 (59%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When these teams met last month the Pioneers were a 9.5 point favorite. They have since won five of their last seven games, so I think we are getting a lot of value as an underdog today.

4* Heavy Hitter on Miami Ohio +

Western Michigan is getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. When these teams met last month the game was decided by a single point, and I don't think a change in venue is going to be enough for the Broncos to cover this spread, especially against a RedHawks team that is out for revenge. The Broncos defense has surrendered more points at home than they have on the road this season while the schedule has been pretty soft. That is a good indication that home court advantage will not be a big factor.

The Redhawks come into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 69.7 points per game on the road. That is over a full point below their opponents scoring average on the season. Miami Ohio may not have a great record, but they play smart basketball which has led to a winning record against the spread. The team avoids turnovers, stays out of foul trouble, and they are knocking down over 76 percent of their free throw attempts this season. The RedHawks have a statistical advantage over the Broncos in all three of those categories.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Miami Ohio. You should play on road underdogs when they are revenging a loss against their opponent that came by three points or less and they are coming off a loss by 10 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in an 85-47 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Western Carolina +

The Western Carolina Catamounts are an easy call in this matchup with the Chattanooga Mocs. The Catamounts are coming into this game having won three of their last four games, while the Mocs have lost three of their last four games. The Mocs have not fared well against physical teams. They are 1-8 ATS versus opponents that are called for 21 or more fouls per game.

The biggest advantage the Catamounts have in this matchup is there underrated defense. Against conference opponents Western Carolina has surrendered a mere 68.1 points per game. On the offensive end of the court they have had no problem scoring points averaging 73.6 points per game. The Catamounts are also coming off back-to-back games scoring 80+ points, and they have the luxury of facing a soft Mocs defense that is allowing 75.8 points per game over their last five games.

Western Carolina is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record. The Catamounts have been playing some great basketball recently, but they have not been covering the spread. I think that caused an overreaction by the oddsmakers for today's matchup. Western Carolina is the better team and it will show today.

5* West Coast Conf. Game of the Month on Loyola-Marymount +

This is a lot of points for the Lions to receive in what is a very even matchup. The last time these teams met it was Loyola-Marymount that was the favorite. The Lions may have lost that game, but I think they were a little unlucky. Portland does not have a good defense. The Pilots have surrendered 73.6 points per game this season. In that first meeting the Lions had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night, making a mere 31.8 percent of their attempts. I don't credit that win to a big defensive performance, instead it should be considered an anomaly that is unlikely to take place again.

Loyola-Marymount should have no problem scoring points today. They are averaging 74.7 points per game on the season, making 44.5 percent of their shot attempts. The Lions are a decent rebounding team, and they have been a decent ball control team. If they continue to rebound well and avoid turnovers tonight, there is no reason the Lions cannot leave Portland with a win under their belts. Even with an average performance they should have no problem sticking to within seven points or less.

The oddsmakers have a history of overvaluing the Pilots in certain situations. For instance, Portland is 13-29 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Pilots are also 5-16 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a road underdog. Portland did not have a good road trip, losing two of those three games. The Pilots have now lost three of their last four games, and I like the Lions to come out and give them a scare tonight.

3* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER

I like this matchup to easily stay under the posted total. Both of these teams have been solid on defense this season. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 90.7 points per game, while the Nets have held opponents below their scoring averages at 99.7 points per game. I don't expect Brooklyn to have any problem improving on that number tonight since they are up against a Chicago team that only averages 92.3 points per game.

This is the last game before the All-Star break, and both of these teams need a win. I think they will step up their defensive efforts today and that will keep this game under the total. Brooklyn has been playing great defense recently, allowing 94.4 points per game over their last five games. Just like Chicago, the Nets are not a high scoring team. They are averaging 96.3 points per game on the road this year, and they will struggle to match that number tonight since Chicago will be one of the best defensive teams they have seen.

The under is 23-8 when Chicago is playing against a team with a losing record this season. The under is also 12-2 when the Bulls are playing at home and the total has been set between 180-189.5 points. In their last seven games against Atlantic division teams the under has a 7-0 record for Chicago. With Both teams struggling to score points this season, and both teams playing great defense right now the under is an easy call in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on South Dakota +

IPFW is one of the most overrated teams in the Summit League. The Mastodons are nowhere near as good as their 18-8 record would indicate. They are coming off back-to-back losses in their last two games, and I think losing two on the road by double-digits will really knock the wind out of them coming into tonight's matchup with South Dakota.

The Coyotes have put up some decent numbers this season. They are averaging over 70 points per game while shooting 44.5 percent from the field. They are also a great free throw shooting team making 74.4 percent of their attempts. South Dakota has also been an excellent ball control team with 12 turnovers per game, and they avoid getting into foul trouble. The Coyotes record may not reflect their quality numbers, and neither does the line on today's game which makes South Dakota a strong value play.

South Dakota is 13-5 ATS against teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more points per game. They are also 14-4 ATS against teams averaging 14 or less turnovers after 15 or more games. They are off to a 6-2 ATS performance against conference opponents this year, which adds to their 17-8 ATS run over the last two seasons. In head-to-head matchups the Coyotes are 4-1 ATS versus IPFW over the last three seasons, including a 2-0 record when playing at Ft Wayne.

4* Vegas Insider on Boston College +

Boston College may not have a great overall record this season, but I still think they are the better team in this matchup with the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has really struggled to get points on the board this season. They are averaging a mere 67.5 points per game which is below their opponents defensive scoring average. Boston College has played a tough schedule, and they have managed to play some very close games with good teams.

The Eagles have covered the spread in four of their last six games. They get to face a Georgia Tech team that is coming off a crushing loss to Virginia in their last outing. The Yellow Jackets were handed an embarrassing 19 point beat down on their home court, and I think that loss will do serious damage to their confidence level. Georgia Tech is also in a bad shooting slump. Over their last two games the Yellow Jackets have shot 34.8 percent and 36.7 percent, respectively.

This matchup fits into a profitable system to fade the Yellow Jackets. You should play against home teams when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts, and are facing a defense that has allowed 45 to 47.5 shooting from its opponents, and they are an average rebounding team that is +/- 3 in rebounding margin against a team that is -3 to -6 in rebounding margin after 15 or more games. This system identifies home teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 38-12 (76%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* NBA First Half Game of the Year on Clippers -

The Portland Trailblazers are falling apart, and I think they are already looking forward to regrouping during the All-Star break. The Blazers have lost five of their last eight games, and they have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games. Portland's defense has always been soft, but they have been saved by an offense averaging close to 108 points per game. They seem to have lost the scoring touch, failing to reach triple digits in five of their last eight games.

The Clippers are coming off impressive back-to-back wins at home. They have had no problem scoring points recently, averaging 114 points per game over their last five games. The Clippers have been dangerously good at home all season, posting a 22-4 record. With Portland struggling like they have been, I just don't see how the Blazers can come into Los Angeles and play a close game against one of the best teams in the league.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Clippers. You should play on a team averaging 102 points per game or more like Los Angeles when they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games, and they are playing a horrible defensive team that is allowing over 102 points per game on the season. This system has a 99-62 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

The Rockets are one of the hottest teams in the league coming into the All-Star break. They have won six consecutive games, covering the spread in five of those six. Houston has been a high scoring team all season, but over their last five games the Rockets have really stepped up their level of play on the offensive end of the court by averaging an impressive 110.6 points pr game. Meanwhile, the Wizards come into this matchup with a defense that is surrendering 101.2 points per game over their last five games.

Washington is playing in a very tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Memphis last night. Houston on the other hand is playing with a day of rest. The Rockets have a long standing history of dominating the Wizards. In head-to-head matchups Houston is 25-8 straight up since 1996, and they are 4-1 over the last three seasons. When playing in Houston the Rockets are 10-6 against the spread since 1996.

This matchup fits into a system hitting a high win percentage when backing the home team. You should play on home teams like Houston after five or more consecutive wins when they have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 40 to 49 percent of their games. This system is 61-27 (69%) against the spread.

3* Blowout on Detroit Pistons -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Cavaliers are a bad team, and they are getting too much credit from the oddsmakers thanks to a three game win streak over a very soft stretch of opponents. Detroit is also riding a three game win streak, which includes an upset win as an underdog over San Antonio in their last game.

I think the Cavaliers will be looking forward to the All-Star break where they can regroup and try to turn their season around. Against division opponents Cleveland has averaged a mere 89.1 points per game. The Cavaliers defense has been horrible on the road this year surrendering 106 points per game. Cleveland will be in for a long night against this Pistons team that is scoring 101.6 points per game at home.

You should play on teams like Detroit that have covered the spread in five of their last six games and have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against an opponent that has won only 25 to 40 percent of their games. This system has an 83-45 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Orlando Magic +

The Magic are playing well right now as they look for their fourth consecutive win tonight when they face the Memphis Grizzlies. Orlando's recent three game win streak has come against a very tough schedule too. They have wins over Oklahoma City and Indiana during that stretch and they will be playing on two days of rest for today's game.

The Grizzlies are in a tough spot tonight. They are playing the second half of a back-to-back, squeaking by Washington last night and having to head south to play on the road against Orlando tonight. Memphis is really struggling on offense recently, and I think it will cost them against this red hot Magic team. The Grizzlies are averaging 85.4 points per game over their last five games.

You should play against favorites like Memphis when they are allowing 92-98 points per game and coming off three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less, and they are playing against a team allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more game in the season. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued, and it has resulted in a 28-7 (80%) record against the spread.