Sports Picks & Predictions

3* Oddsmakers Error on Akron +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this game. Akron is on fire right now having won four of its last five games. They are 8-2 against conference opponents this season, holding those teams to a mere 63.2 points per game.

Western Michigan has struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations recently. The Broncos have lost seven of their last nine games against the spread, and I look for them to lose today's game straight up too. Their defense is nowhere near as good as the Zips' defense, and when you adjust their offensive scoring averages for strength of schedule both of these teams come in averaging similar numbers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Zips. You should play on road teams with a line of three-points or less when they are coming off two consecutive wins by five points or less over a conference rival and they are playing in the month of February. This system has a 58-30 (66%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on George Mason +

The Minutemen have struggled to live up to the absurdly high expectations set by the oddsmakers. They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games, and there is simply no reason UMass should be a double-digit favorite in this game. George Mason has a winning record against the spread when playing on the road, and while it may only be 6-5, this is the third largest point total received in 2014. George Mason covered the spread in its two prior games receiving double-digits.

The last time these teams met UMass squeaked by with a one point win. A change in venue is not enough to justify such a large number considering how well the Patriots matchup with the Minutemen. Both of these teams have similar figures in rebounding margin, turnovers and free throw shooting percentage. They have also put up similar defensive scoring stats this season. While UMass may have an offensive scoring advantage, the fact that George Mason put up 87 points in the first meeting of the season tells me that advantage is not enough to justify this many points.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing George Mason. You should play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like the Patriots when they are a good rebounding team giving up less than nine offensive rebounds per game on the season in a February game. This system has a 370-251 (60%) record against the spread. While the Patriots may not stick to within a single point again, I do think they will stick to within a single-digit margin.

5* Road Dog of the Month on James Madison +

There is a lot of value on James Madison as such a large underdog since they will have Andre Nation back in the lineup. Nation is the leading scorer for the Dukes, averaging 16.6 points per game. He was also the team leader in rebounds with 5.3 per game. With Nation on the court this team should play with a much higher intensity level, and I even think they will have a chance to pull off the upset in this game.

The Dukes have been a solid team defensively this season. They are holding opponents to a mere 67.8 points per game. Delaware on the other hand has surrendered an average of 76 points per game. The Blue Hens have yet to lose a Colonial Conference game, and now signs are pointing to the oddsmakers beginning to overvalue the team. Delaware has lost two of its last three games against the spread, and they have come close to being upset several times in recent weeks.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road teams that average 63 points per game or less when they are playing against a poor defensive team allowing 74-78 points per game, after playing a game where both teams scored 65 or less points. This system is 47-20 (70%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Western Conference Game of the Week on Utah +

The Jazz are coming off a confidence boosting win over Miami in a game that saw them listed as a 9.5 point underdog. They have had two days to prepare for the Lakers, and I think the oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. The Lakers have lost eight of their last 10 games, and they are showing no signs of life after losing at home to Chicago in their last outing.

The Lakers defense has been a a major issue this season. They have surrendered an average of 105.8 points per game. While the Jazz may not typically be a high scoring team, I don't think they will have any problem scoring points against Los Angeles tonight. Defensively Utah will have a big advantage. Over their last five games the Jazz have surrendered a mere 96.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams with a line of three points or less when they are well rested, playing six or less games in 14 days, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system identifies road teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in an 83-45 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Bobcats UNDER

This total is simply too high, which makes the under a strong value play. The Bobcats may not have a great record, but that has not been because of a lack of defensive talent. They are playing at home, and should easily control the pace of this game. Charlotte has held opponents to 94.6 points per game at home this season, while scoring a mere 92.8 points in those games.

Dallas has been a soft team defensively at times, but that does not hurt us in this matchup tonight. The Bobcats opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game this year, yet they are still averaging well under 95 points per game. Also, the Mavericks have been playing a lot better defensively in recent weeks. Over their past five games Dallas has held its opponents to 95.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when one team (Dallas) has beaten the spread by 36 points or more in their last five games, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing against a team with a losing record. Over the last five seasons the under is 54-34 (61%) in this situation.

3* Main Event on Notre Dame -

This matchup has a lot of blowout potential for Notre Dame. Clemson is a defense oriented team, but that defense has struggled on the road at times this season. The only thing consistent about the Tigers is an offense that has been consistently bad. Clemson comes into this matchup averaging a mere 60.4 points per game on the road, while Notre Dame has put up an impressive 76.1 points per game at home.

Clemson has lost three of its last four road games with a 21.6 point average margin of defeat in those games three games. The Tigers offense is really struggling right now. Over their last five games they are averaging a mere 49.2 points per game. Clemson is 0-7 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in five consecutive games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Irish. You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Notre Dame when they are making 45 to 47.5 percent of their shot attempts and are playing against a team allowing opponents to make 40 percent or less of their shot attempts, in a game with two good ball handling teams committing 14.5 turnovers per game or less after 15 or more games. This system has a 69-37 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It identifies teams that are being undervalued because of their opponents defensive scoring numbers.

4* Blowout of the Week on Houston -

Minnesota is suffering from several key injuries right now, and it is showing in their performance on the court. The Wolves have lost three consecutive games coming into tonight's matchup with the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, Houston comes into this matchup riding a five game win streak. After playing a much closer game than they should have against Milwaukee, I look for the Rockets to play a complete game today.

The injury issues for Minnesota have had a huge impact on their already soft defense. The Wolves are surrendering 108 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them dearly against a high scoring team like Houston. The Rockets average 104.1 points per game on the road this season, and they are averaging 108.6 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Wolves. You should fade a home team like Minnesota when they are an extremely tired team that is playing its fifth game in the last seven days. This system has a 143-85 (63%) record against the spread. This is Houston's third game in the past seven days, and since they are well rested and facing a battered Minnesota lineup I like the Rockets to win this game in a blowout.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky +

I like the Hilltoppers to pull off the upset in this game, but we will still take the points. Western Kentucky is 8-2 in conference play, and they will have several key matchup advantages against Arkansas State. The Hilltoppers are riding a six game win streak, with three of those wins coming on the road. The last time these teams met Western Kentucky picked up a five point win. That scare ensures the Hilltoppers do not look past the Red Wolves today.

The biggest advantage Western Kentucky has in this matchup is its defense. The Hilltoppers opponents have an offensive scoring average of 71.9 points per game, yet Western Kentucky has allowed a mere 66.7 points per game overall and 65.9 points per game when playing on the road. They should have no problem putting up another big number on the scoreboard facing a Red Wolves defense that is surrendering 72.7 points per game. The Hilltoppers are also +5 in rebounding margin to -2 from Arkansas State.

Western Kentucky is 33-16 ATS in road games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games after 15 or more games. The Red Wolves come into this matchup with a 10-24 ATS record against teams that are outrebounding opponents by four or more per game after 15 or more games. With the Red Wolves playing with eight days off I think they come out flat. I like the Hilltoppers to take an early lead and never look back.

3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -

Brooklyn is an easy call at home when they host a Pelicans team that is 9-15 on the road this season. The Nets have really turned their season around since the New Year, and I don't think they will have any problem covering such a small number against New Orleans today. The Nets are 8-2 at home in 2014.

The Nets should easily shut down the Pelicans offense today. Over their last five games the Pelicans have averaged a mere 92.6 points per game. Brooklyn on the other hand is coming into this matchup averaging 99.4 points per game over their last five games. The Pelicans have a history of struggling against good three point shooting teams. They are 17-32 against the spread when facing a team making 36 percent or more of their attempts. Brooklyn is shooting just over 37 percent from beyond the arch this season.

The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning record at home. Brooklyn is coming into this game with a 7-1 ATS record in their last eight games when playing on one day of rest. The Nets have also dominated the head-to-head series between these teams with a 6-2 ATS record in the last eight meetings. They are 5-1 ATS in the last six games when the Nets are playing at home.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The Golden Grizzlies may not have a great record this season, but they are certainly every bit as good as Valparaiso. Oakland has played an incredibly difficult schedule, and I think that has them underrated coming into the second game of the season against the Crusaders. When these teams met last month it was Oakland that walked away with a five point win. A change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Valparaiso to cover this spread.

The Golden Grizzlies have faced four ranked opponents this season, including one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten. Their schedule has been tough, which is why their 74.1 point per game scoring average means a lot more than the 75.3 points per game the Crusaders are averaging. The biggest advantage Oakland has in this game is the fact that they are such a good ball control team. The Golden Grizzlies average 11 turnovers per game to 15 turnovers per game from Valparaiso.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Crusaders. You should play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Valparaiso when they are coming off a home loss by three points or less, and they are trying to revenge a same season loss where their opponent scored 75 points or more. This system has a 31-9 (78%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Nevada +

It took a last second three-point shot for San Diego State to get past Boise State in the Aztec's last outing. I think San Diego State is showing signs of regression on defense. They gave up 51 percent shooting to the Broncos, and they have allowed over 50 percent shooting in two of their last three games.

Nevada has been a great team to back on the road this season. They have an 8-3 record against the spread in road games while San Diego State comes into this game with a 3-5 ATS record at home. The oddsmakers have once again overvalued the Aztecs, and I look for the Wolf Pack to give them a scare today. Nevada averages 76 points per game on the road against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 69.9 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade San Diego State. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when coming off 10 or more consecutive wins. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has a 164-115 (59%) record over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Long Beach St -

The Long Beach State 49ers are coming into this matchup having won four of their last five games. They have covered the spread in all five of those contests. In fact, the 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, with both of those losses coming by a mere half point.

UC-Riverside has lost eight of its last 12 games. They are not a high scoring team, and I don't see them keeping pace with Long Beach State in this game. The Highlanders are averaging a mere 68.1 points per game against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 72 points per game. Long Beach State is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents, and they have held those teams to a mere 63.5 points per game.

Long Beach State is 35-19 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These two may have similar overall records, but the 49ers are clearly the better team. They played a very difficult non-conference schedule, but they have shown just how talented they are during conference play. The Highlanders have a 3-5 record against conference opponents, and they have hovered around .500 when playing at home this year. A quality team like Long Beach should have no problem picking up a big road win today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Portland Blazers -

We are getting a lot of value with Portland today thanks to a less than impressive run recently. However, when you look at Portland's schedule during those games it is easy to see why they have been hovering around .500 over their last eight games. They took the Indiana Pacers to overtime in their last outing, and I think facing a soft defense like Minnesota's will be a welcome site for Portland.

Minnesota is surrendering 101.6 points per game this season. That has come against opponents averaging 100.9 points per game. In today's matchup they host a Portland team that is averaging 107.6 points per game on the road. The Trailblazers have averaged 109.8 points per game against division opponents, and I don't think the Timberwolves will be able to slow them down today.

You should play against home teams like Minnesota when they are playing on back-to-back days and trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more in the last meeting. The last time these teams met the Blazers put up 115 points and walked away with a double-digit win. This system has a 95-47 (67%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington State +

Utah is getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers today. While the Utes have played well at home this year, they will find it difficult to beat this underrated Washington State team by a double-digit margin. Washington is a solid defensive team allowing 65.3 points per game to opponents whose offensive scoring average is 72.5 points per game.

Utah is coming off a nine point win over Washington in their last outing. The Utes shot 60 percent from the field in that game, and I don't think they are capable of repeating that feat against this stingy Cougars defense. With the way these teams matchup this should be a very close game. Washington State is a quality rebounding team, and they have been a great ball control team. They should hold their own on the boards and avoid turnovers today, and that will ensure they keep this game within a single digit margin.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on road underdogs in a game involving two teams making 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games when that road dog is coming off a game making 13 or more three point shots. This system is 32-6 (84%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Blowout on Samford -

The records may not indicate it, but Samford is the better team in this matchup. The Bulldogs have an impressive 8-3 record at home, while the Chattanooga Mocs have struggled on the road at 5-9. The Mocs have lost their last two road games and that trend should carry over into today's game.

The biggest problem for Chattanooga has been on the defensive end of the court. When playing on the road they are surrendering 79.9 points per game. Don't let the Moc's 9-1 Southern Conference record intimidate you because this is a team that has benefited from a soft conference schedule this season. Samford will have the revenge factor on their side for this game. The Bulldogs lost on the road the last time these teams met, and the change in venue should easily swing the outcome of this game in their favor.

While college basketball rest profiles are not generally a factor to be concerned about because of their limited number of games, it is worth noting that Samford has a 12-2 ATS record over the last two seasons when playing with one or less days of rest. The Bulldogs are also 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They have a 20-7 ATS record in all games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas -

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now. They have won eight of their last nine games, and have the luxury of home court advantage for this game. Kansas has one of the Big 12's best home court advantages. They are 9-1 at Allen Fieldhouse this season, averaging 82.6 points per game.

I expect Kansas to score at-will against this soft West Virginia defense. The Mountaineers are surrendering 71.4 points per game this season. On the other end of the court West Virginia will struggle to find the basket against this underrated Jayhawks defense. Kansas has surrendered 68.2 points per game at home this season, and that has come against opponents whose scoring average is 75.9 points per game.

The Kansas Jayhawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against Big 12 opponents. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The Mountaineers are coming into this matchup having surrendered 76.9 points per game against conference opponents, and they are simply outmatched by the Jayhawks in several of the key statistical categories. Kansas has a rebounding, shooting and defensive edge, and they should win this game in a blowout.

5* CBB Game of the Year on Tulsa -

This matchup should be a blowout win for the Golden Hurricane. Rice has simply fallen apart in C-USA play this year, and they are severely outmatched by Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes are averaging 73.4 points per game this season, and they should have no problem putting up a big number against the Owls soft defense. Rice has surrendered 72.9 points per game against conference opponents, and 73.8 points per game over their last five games.

The advantages for Tulsa don't end in scoring. They have a significant rebounding advantage too. Rice comes into this matchup averaging 33 rebounds per game with only six coming on the offensive glass. They are -4 in rebounding margin this season. The Owls are also slightly more turnover prone than the Golden Hurricanes. Tulsa has been a great ball control team averaging just 11 turnovers per game.

You should play on road favorites like Tulsa when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts and are facing a poor shooting team making 40 to 42.5 percent of their attempts after 15 or more games, and that road team is coming off a poor three point shooting performance making 20 percent or less of their attempts. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 55-21 (72%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* MAC Game of the Week on Miami Ohio +

This is too many points for the Redhawks to be receiving in a matchup that features two evenly matched teams. The Ohio Bobcats are coming off an embarrassing loss to Western Michigan in their last outing. They have struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations, losing three of their last five games against the spread.

The Redhawks have a solid defense, and they should give Ohio a lot of trouble in this game. They have held opponents to 68.7 points per game when playing on the road. They are averaging eight steals per game, and committing a mere 13 turnovers per game. The Redhawks have put up very similar numbers to the Bobcats when playing conference opponents, and that tells me these teams are a lot more even than this line would indicate.

You should play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ohio when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against a conference rival, and they are facing an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 points or more. This system identifies home teams that the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 47-20 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz are a well rested team coming into this matchup. They have had three days to prepare for their road matchup with the Mavericks, and that should easily allow them to keep this game within a single digit margin. Utah may not have a great record straight up when playing on the road, but they have hovered around .500 against the spread. That gives them a better ATS record than the Mavericks who are at 11-14 ATS when playing at home.

The Jazz have a bad reputation for being a soft defense, but I would argue they are a team that is a lot better than they get credit for. They have held opponents to 100.9 points per game, which is well below their opponents offensive scoring average that is just shy of 102 points per game. This will be the Mavericks fifth game in the last 10 days. With rest profiles heavily in favor of the Jazz I don't see Dallas winning this game in the blowout the oddsmakers expect.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Mavericks. You should fade home favorites like Dallas when they are making 45.5 to 47.5 percent of their shot attempts against a team allowing a shot percentage of 45.5 to 47.5 percent after 42 games, when that home team is coming off two straight games making over 50 percent of their shot attempts. This system identifies teams being overvalued by the oddsmakers because of their recent shooting performance that has proved unsustainable over an extended number of games. The system has a 57-25 (70%) record against the spread.

4* Total Dominator on Blazers/Pacers UNDER

The total on this game is set way too high. The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, and I think that will allow them to control the pace of this game. The Pacers defense has been unbelievably hard to score on this year, and they are surrendering a mere 84.8 points per game when playing at home. On the offensive end of the court the Pacers are not a high scoring team. They haven't needed to average triple digits to win games, which is a big reason the under is 17-8 when playing in Indianapolis.

Portland has really been struggling recently. Over the Trailblazers' last five games they have averaged a mere 91.8 points per game. They have also gone under the total in seven of their last eight games. The normally soft Portland defense has stepped up during that five game stretch. They are holding opponents to 98.8 points per game which is five points under their defensive scoring average on the season. With the offense struggling, and the defense playing so well, the under becomes a very strong value play.

This matchup fits into a system indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing four or less games in the last 10 games and they have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against a team with a winning record. The under is 147-85 (63%) in this situation.

5* Ivy League Game of the Month on Yale -

The Yale Bulldogs are the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last five games, and I see no reason why they can't pick up a road win over Dartmouth tonight. Statistically these teams are fairly even, but I think it is the Bulldogs that have the advantage tonight. They are facing a Big Green team that will be without one of its best players.

Gabas Maldunas is out with a season ending ACL injury. The Big Green have played well without their leading scorer in their past two games, but the competition has not been that tough. I think Dartmouth's two wins in its last two games has the oddsmakers over adjusting tonight. Yale has one of the best conference records in the Ivy League, and with Maldunas gone they should have no problem dominating this game. Maldunas was not only Dartmouth's leading scorer, we was also the team's leader in rebounds per game so his production is going to be missed.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulldogs. You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Yale when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in their last three games, but they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team and it has resulted in a 43-20 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on Long Beach St +

The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 7-4 ATS record in road games, and I like their chances to pick up another ATS win in this game. I also think there is also a lot of potential for the 49ers to pull off the upset tonight.

The 49ers are riding a four game win streak coming into this matchup. They have won both of their road games straight up as an underdog during that stretch. The Anteaters on the other hand are trying to find a way to stop the bleeding after losing two of their last three games. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, and they even have a straight up loss at home as a six point favorite during that stretch.

This is a revenge game for the 49ers after losing by two-points on their home court earlier this season. A change in venue should only motivate Long Beach State as they try to give the Anteaters the home loss that was given to them in the first meeting of the season. The 49ers have been playing incredibly well in the second half of the season winning five of their last six games, and that is a trend that should continue against UC-Irvine tonight.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

Washington should have no problem keeping this game close with Utah. The Huskies have been playing well recently winning two of their last three games. Utah on the other hand has lost three consecutive games. These teams have put up very similar numbers in the key statistical categories, and their overall records are also very similar. To favor the Utes by a near double-digit margin is severely underestimating the talent level of this Huskies team.

Both of these teams are averaging similar scoring numbers, but I think it is Washington that actually has the edge. The Huskies opponents have a defensive scoring average of 68.8 points per game, yet Washington has put up an average of 76 points per game. Utah on the other hand has faced opponents whose defensive scoring average is 74.4 points per game, and the Utes only average 79.2 points per game.

The Huskies have a long history of playing well against winning teams. They are 55-33 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring their opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games. Lorenzo Romar is great at preparing his team for a high scoring opponent. As the head coach of Washington he has a 20-8 record against the spread when facing a team scoring 77 points or more after 15 or more games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP -

This game has blowout written all over it. UTEP is clearly a much better team than East Carolina. The Miners come into this matchup with a 16-6 record this season, and a 6-1 record against C-USA opponents. East Carolina on the other hand has fallen apart recently, dropping to 12-10 overall and 1-6 against conference opponents.

The Miners are riding a six game win streak, and nothing in this matchup indicates that run will be ending today. They have the luxury of facing a Pirates defense that has surrendered almost 73 points per game. The Pirates are only one game above .500 when playing at home, and UTEP will easily be one of the best teams they have faced on their home court this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Miners. You should play on favorites like UTEP when they average 67-74 points per game and are coming off three straight wins by 10 points or more, when they are facing an average defense allowing 67-74 points per game. This system is 240-157 (61%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Tulsa +

Louisiana Tech has been playing some very mediocre basketball without Raheem Appleby in the lineup. I think that puts the value on Tulsa receiving near double-digits in this matchup. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 74 points per game this season, and they have the luxury of facing a Bulldogs team that has surrendered 75.6 points per game over their last five games.

Tulsa has a very underrated defense. They may not look great on paper, but when you look at their difficult schedule its easy to see why the Golden Hurricane are surrendering 72 points per game. That number is still well below their opponents scoring averages on the season. Tulsa has also been a great ball control team averaging 11 turnovers per game. They should compete on the boards with the Bulldogs so keeping this game within single-digits should be an easy task to accomplish.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Bulldogs. You should fade home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Louisiana Tech when they average over 76 points per game and are coming off two or more games with a combined score of 155 points or more, when they are facing an opponent that has held opponents to 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 51-26 (66%) against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Spurs/Nets UNDER

This game should play out to be a defensive battle. A big reason for the Nets success in the New Year has been outstanding defensive play. They suffered a three game stretch of poor defense a week ago, but I like the Nets to get back to playing solid defense in this matchup with the Spurs. San Antonio will be without Duncan and Parker tonight, and that will take a big hit out of the Spurs offensive production.

On the defensive end of the court San Antonio will be fine. They have played without there stars before and still manage to put up solid defensive numbers. San Antonio is holding opponents to a mere 96.3 points per game on the road this season, and that has come against much better scoring teams than the Nets. Brooklyn averages 97.5 points per game overall, and I think they will struggle to match that number in this game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off two or more consecutive overs, and their opponent (Brooklyn) is coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a history of setting the total to high, and the under has delivered a 216-144 (60%) record over the last five seasons.

5*

3* Total Annihilator on Kings/Raptors UNDER

This is a lot of points for two teams that have been trending towards the under recently. The Raptors have gone under the total in three of their last four games, while the Kings have gone under in four consecutive games. Both teams are playing great defense right now, and nothing in this matchup indicates that will be changing today.

Over their last five games the Raptors have held opponents to 92.2 points per game. They have been a solid defensive team all season allowing an average of just 95.2 points per game on the road. The Kings may have a decent scoring average at home, but that has come against opponents who are surrendering over 100 points per game on the season. On the defensive end of the court Sacramento has allowed just 95.4 points per game over its last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. When the total is between 200 to 209.5 points in a non-conference matchup and one of the teams (Sacramento) went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game the under has a 54-25 (68%) record over the last five seasons. I expect this matchup to be a defensive battle, and it should stay comfortably under the posted total.

4* Vegas Insider on Pelicans -

The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a tough home loss to the Indiana Pacers last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation like this should prove to be too much for the Hawks to overcome against a New Orleans team that has won four of its last six games. The Pelicans are playing some great basketball right now, especially on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games they have held opponents to a mere 90 points per game.

New Orleans is averaging 100.2 points per game at home. They should have no problem scoring points against one of the Eastern Conference's softest defenses. The Hawks are allowing 104.7 points per game on the road this season. On the offensive end of the court, Atlanta is coming off an 85 point performance last night, and things will not get an easier today against this red hot Pelicans defense.

The oddsmakers have a history of undervaluing the Pelicans when they are coming off a loss. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up loss, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day of rest. Meanwhile, the Hawks have a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight games when playing in the second leg of a back-to-back situation.

5* Western Conference Blowout of the Month on Rockets -

The Phoenix Suns are playing in a tough back-to-back situation after losing at home last night to the Chicago Bulls. Now they are traveling to Houston where they will face a Rockets team that is looking for its fourth consecutive win. Houston is playing on three days of rest, so they should be well prepared to face the Suns.

The Rockets have been a very dangerous team on their home court. They have a 20-7 record, and are averaging 105.7 points per game for their fans. They have the luxury of facing a very soft defense in this matchup. The Suns are allowing 101.3 points per game this season, and playing in a back-to-back situation against an outstanding offensive team like Houston makes this matchup scream blowout.

This game fits into a very profitable system backing the Rockets. You should play on home teams like Houston when they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game, and they are facing an average pressure defense that has forced 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has a 97-60 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* No Brainer on Wright State -

Both of these teams come into this matchup with .500 records in Horizon League play, but the value in this matchup is on the home team laying the points. Wright State is a much better team than Youngstown State, and it will show in this game. The Raiders have played a comparable schedule to the Penguins, but statistically they look dominant in comparison to Youngstown.

On the defensive end of the court Wright State has surrendered a mere 54.7 points per game at home. That number is not far off their 61.6 points per game allowed overall this season. The Penguins defense on the other hand has been shaky all season. They are allowing 73 points per game overall and 79.5 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents whose offensive scoring average is only 69.7 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Raiders. You should play against underdogs like Youngstown State when they are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road cover losing straight up as an underdog. This system has an 87-50 (64%) record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +

This game has upset written all over it. We will take the points with the Explorers on the road, but I would not be surprised to see La Salle come out on top in this game. They are facing a UMass team that has lost three of its last five games, and I expect the Minutemen to underwhelm at home in a matchup sandwiched between two tough road games.

UMass opened the season winning 10 consecutive games. They dropped a close matchup with Florida State before riding a six game win streak. That improbable run had the Minutemen coming into the heart of Atlantic 10 play as one of the country's most overrated teams. Reality has settled in with UMass losing three of its last four games, yet the oddsmakers have continued to overvalue Minutemen in this matchup. They have a 2-8-1 ATS record in their last 11 games.

You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like La Salle when both teams are holding opponents to 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games, and the road underdog has scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. The slow starts from the Explorers have La Salle underrated in this matchup. This system has a 70-30 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston College +

This is too many points for a quality team like Boston College to receive in a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle. The Eagles have played some of the best teams in the ACC and have yet to lose a game by a margin larger than 11 points. Virginia is a defense first team, and its unlikely they will score enough points to cover such a large spread in this matchup.

Boston College is a much better team than its 6-15 record would indicate. The Eagles are averaging 70 points per game this season while Virginia comes into this matchup averaging a mere 65.2 points per game at home. Boston College has covered the spread in three of its last four games, and their average margin of loss in ACC play is a mere seven points. In their two games against ranked opponents the Eagles have stayed within 10 points or less.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Boston College when they are coming off a game where they covered the spread but lost straight up as an underdog, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two or more consecutive road wins. This system identifies teams that are undervalued and facing an opponent playing in a letdown situation. The system has cashed in a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Hawks +

The Indiana Pacers are playing in a very tough spot tonight, making the Atlanta Hawks an easy call in this game. The Pacers are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing Orlando yesterday. This will be Indiana's fourth game in the last six days, and I think traveling from Indianapolis to Atlanta will prove to be too much.

The Hawks are a solid 16-6 when playing at home. They have also been a great team to back against the spread in those games posting a 15-7 record. Eight of the Pacers 10 losses have come on the road this season, and facing this well rested Atlanta team puts them in a dangerous situation that could result in their 11th loss of the season. Indiana has continuously been overvalued by the oddsmakers, and that has resulted in five ATS losses in their last seven games.

The Hawks play well against teams that rely on their three point shooting. They are 13-5 ATS in home games this season when facing a team that attempts 18 or more three-point shots per game. Atlanta is also 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less. The Pacers defense has shown signs of struggle recently thanks to their difficult schedule. Over their last five games Indiana has allowed over five points per game more than its defensive scoring average for the season. The Hawks are a very good team that averages 103.1 points per game, and that should prove to be too much for Indiana to handle tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on James Madison +

The Dukes have a good chance to pull off an upset against Towson, and listing them as such a large underdog is completely undervaluing this team. Towson State has lost three of its last four games against the spread, and that is a trend that will continue today against James Madison. The Dukes have won two of their last three games, and the loss during that three game stretch came by a mere two points against a very talented William & Mary team.

The Dukes are playing some solid defense right now. Over their last five games they have held opponents to 63.4 points per game. Towson State comes into this matchup surrendering an average of 68 points per game this season. In head-to-head history between these teams James Madison is 3-1 straight up the last three seasons. This is a Colonial Athletic rivalry game that has a history of going down to the wire. There is no reason to expect a different outcome this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home teams like Towson State that make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three-point shots on the season and are coming off a shooting performance greater than 55 percent from the field, when they are facing a team making less than 32 percent of their three-point shots. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers, and these teams typically show some regression in shooting percentage. The system has a 57-31 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Kings UNDER

This matchup sets up perfectly for a play on the under. The Kings are coming into this game having given up 106.4 points per game over their last five games. Sacramento has been struggling defensively, and that has forced the oddsmakers to set this total higher than it should be. The Kings are facing a horrible Bulls offense, and I just don't see their defensive woes continuing in this matchup with Chicago.

The Bulls may not be a great team on offense, but they have one of the league's best defenses. Chicago has surrendered 92.7 points per game this season. Their defensive scoring average is a full eight points below the average opponent Sacramento has faced this season. The Kings offense has been putting up below average numbers since losing DeMarcus Cousins to an ankle injury, and with his status doubtful today I expect them to continue struggling on offense.

The Bulls have gone under the total in five of their last six games while the Kings have stayed under the total in three consecutive games. There are too many variables indicating this will be a low scoring game. Both teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, Chicago is playing great defense, the Kings are struggling to score without Cousins and the list goes on and on. Take the under because this one will be low scoring.

4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER

This matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Spurs defense has been solid on the road, holding opponents to a mere 95.3 points per game. They are not a team that has been putting up big offensive numbers recently either. San Antonio is averaging just 95.4 points per game over their last five games.

The Pelicans come into this matchup with a very underrated defense. They have held opponents to 98.7 points per game when playing on the road, but over their last five games they have surrendered just 89.8 points per game. Just like the Spurs, New Orleans has been in a bit of a scoring slump. They have scored an average of 93.6 points over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system indicating this game will stay below the total. You should play the under in a game involving two good three point shooting teams that make 36.5 percent or more of their attempts, in a matchup involving two average rebounding teams that have a +3 to -3 rebounding margin on the season. This system is 270-178 (60%) to the under throughout the last five seasons. The system points out the fact that the oddsmakers tend to set the total far too high for games with good three-point shooting teams, not taking into account how well the teams have played defensively.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Wizards OVER

The Portland Trailblazers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season. They are averaging 108.3 points per game overall, and when playing on the road that number increases to 108.7 points per game. They are also a very soft defensive team that has allowed 105.1 points per game on the road. Their high scoring and poor defensive play are a big reason the over is such an easy call in this matchup with the Wizards.

Washington comes into this matchup averaging just over 100 points per game at home. I think they have a lot of potential to exceed there scoring average since they will be facing a soft defense in this game. Portland is allowing 103.4 points per game overall against opponents whose scoring average is 100.8 points per game. When the Trailblazers are playing on the road that number gets even worse.

The over is 20-6 in Portland's road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. The over is also 13-3 in Washington's home games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more points per game. These two angles combined for a 33-9 (79%) record in favor of the over.

4* Colonial Game of the Week on Northeastern +

These teams have a history of playing some very close games. In fact, four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams have been decided by four points or less. While there records may not indicate it, these teams are actually much more evenly matched than they appear. Delaware's defense has been horrible this season, and I expect them to struggle against a rivalry opponent like Northeastern.

The majority of Delaware's conference games have been close. The last time these teams met the Fightin' Blue Hens picked up a mere four point victory. It took 56 percent shooting from the field for Delaware to win that game, and I don't think they will repeat that feat in the second meeting of the season between these teams. Northeastern had a strong rebounding advantage in that game, and they only had four turnovers which is to be expected against the soft Delaware defense.

The Huskies have been a great team to back from the road underdog spot posting an 11-3 ATS record over the last two seasons. They are 12-3 ATS when playing on the road against against a conference opponent. Delaware is getting way too much credit from the oddsmakers, and I think there is a good chance their horrible defensive play will cost the Blue Hens this game.

5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Oakland +

This is a revenge game for the Oakland Golden Grizzlies after losing to the Milwaukee Panthers earlier this month. Oakland is an easy call in this rematch since they dominated the offensive glass and turnover margin in that first meeting of the season. The Panthers had 17 turnovers in that first game to just nine from Oakland. The Grizzlies also suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance, and it seems unlikely that will take place again.

The Golden Grizzlies are averaging 74 points per game this season. If not for shooting 32 percent from the field in the first meeting of the season I think the Grizzlies were more than capable of putting up over 80 points on this soft Panthers defense. They had 68 shot attempts in that game to just 54 from Milwaukee. The Panthers have allowed an average of 73.1 points per game at home so I don't think they are getting a lot of benefit from home court advantage.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on an underdog like Oakland when it is revenging a straight up loss as a favorite against an opponent, when that opponent is coming off an upset win as an underdog over a conference rival in their previous game. This system has cashed in a 67-33 (67%) record against the spread.

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Portland Trailblazers -

The Toronto Raptors are playing in a very tough spot today. Last night they were on the road against Denver, and now they have to turn around and head to Portland to play the Trailblazers in the second game of a back-to-back. Portland is a very good team when playing at home posting an 18-5 record, so I like the Trailblazers to pick up an easy win over the Raptors.

Portland has several key advantages in this game. They are an outstanding scoring team averaging 108.4 points per game. Toronto on the other hand comes into this matchup averaging a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. The Raptors are -4 in rebounding margin on the road this season, while Portland has a +5 figure in rebounding margin when playing at home. The Trailblazers have also dominated head-to-head matchups with Toronto over the last three seasons. They are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last four meetings between these teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Trailblazers. You should play on a team like Portland when they are a 3.5 to 9.5 point home favorite, and they are playing in a game involving two teams shooting 43.5 to 45.5 percent after 42 or more games, and they are +3 to +5 in rebounding margin against a team that is -3 to +3 in rebounding margin on the season. This system has a 72-36 (67%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -

We are getting a lot of value on Miami thanks to a four game run at home from the New York Knicks. None of those four wins have come against decent competition, so I don't think the Knicks have done anything special by winning at home against four bad teams. The competition gets a lot tougher tonight with the defending champions in town.

The Miami Heat are coming off two days of rest so I like their chance to have a strong showing on the road today. The Knicks are 11-15 at home this season and 9-17 against the spread in those games. They don't get a lot of benefit from home court advantage, and a well rested team like Miami should have no problem coming to town and picking up a big win. The Knicks are also 7-16 ATS as an underdog this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Miami Heat. You should play on a team that is revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite when they are coming off a home loss. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it is 121-73 (62.4%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Colorado State +

I think listing the Rams as a double-digit underdog is grossly under estimating the talent of this team. The Rams are averaging 75 points per game this season. They have put up comparable numbers to San Diego State in both rebounding margin and turnovers. The last time these teams met the Rams managed to stick within 10 points, and I don't think the change in venue will be enough for the Aztecs to increase their margin of victory.

The Rams biggest advantage in this matchup is their free-throw shooting ability. They average 29 attempts from the free throw line, and they have made just shy of 73 percent of those attempts. San Diego State on the other hand is making just 63.4 percent of their attempts from the line. The Aztecs rely heavily on their ability to force turnovers in order to win games, but Colorado State is a great ball control team averaging just nine turnovers per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the Rams. You should take road underdogs of 10 points or more like Colorado State when they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season, and they are revenging a home loss against a team with a winning record. This system has a 105-58 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Nevada -

Air Force is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West conference, and I expect them to lose in a blowout on the road against Nevada. The Wolf Pack have a 6-2 record against conference opponents and a 7-1 record against the spread in those games. They have been playing incredibly well lately and should have no problem putting a big number on the scoreboard against this soft Falcons defense.

Nevada is averaging 74.1 points per game. They are a very efficient team averaging just 11 turnovers per game. The Falcons come into this matchup averaging 14 turnovers per game. Air Force is the 294th ranked team in the country for rebounds per game. Nevada should have no problem getting enough extra shot attempts to win this game by a double-digit margin thanks to the better turnover and rebounding margins.

Nevada is 8-0 ATS this season when facing a poor pressure defense that is forcing 12 or less turnovers per game. They are 9-0 ATS against teams who average six or less steals per game. The Falcons are coming off a double-digit loss against Boise State so their confidence will be low in this matchup. They are 2-5 on the road and 3-5 against conference opponents this season. Nevada is the better team, and with home court advantage they should have no problem winning this game by a double-digit margin.

5* Colonial Game of the Month on Drexel +

I don't put a lot of stock in the first meeting of the season between these teams. Drexel had an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in that game. The Dragons dominated Towson in shot attempts and rebounds, but shooting 31.9 percent from the field took away any chance they had to win that game. Its very unlikely that will take place again, so I think we are getting a lot of value with the better team playing as an underdog in this second meeting of the season.

Drexel has been a great team to back on the road this year with an 8-4 ATS record. I don't think Towson is as good as their 10-1 home record would indicate. The Tigers have played an incredibly soft schedule this season, and it has artificially inflated their offensive and defensive statistics. Drexel on the other hand has played a tough schedule. The Dragons opponents average 72.2 points per game, yet Drexel has surrendered just 69.6 points per game when playing on the road.

Drexel is 33-15 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent. Towson on the other hand comes into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 home games against a team that has a winning record on the road. Drexel is a much better team than they are getting credit for. They had an extra 25 shot attempts over Towson State in the first meeting of the season, so even if they only slightly improve their shooting percentage in this matchup the Dragons should have no problem picking up a win.

3* No Doubt Rout on Pacific +

The Pacific Tigers should have a good opportunity to pull off a road upset in this matchup with San Diego. The Toreros have played in a lot of very close games this season. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points or less, and they are facing a Tigers team that is much better than they are getting credit for. Pacific is averaging 75.1 points per game this season which makes them one of the better scoring teams San Diego has faced.

The Toreros are a poor scoring team. Their opponents have surrendered an average of 73.1 points per game, yet San Diego is scoring a mere 67.5 points per game this season. I think the Toreros are playing in a letdown spot after pulling off an upset win as an underdog in their last outing. San Diego is 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons. They are also 0-6 ATS after a win by 15 points or more.

San Diego may not surrender a lot of points, but I credit that to their soft schedule rather than solid defensive play. The Toreros do not force a lot of turnovers and they are averaging just six steals per game. Pacific is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against opponents who average six of less steals per game on the season. The Tigers have played a much stronger schedule than San Diego, yet these teams have comparable records. The value in this matchup is on Pacific plus the points.

4* ACC Game of the Week on Maryland -

Virginia Tech is the worst team in the ACC and I expect the Terrapins to hand them their eighth conference loss of the season. Virginia Tech has a 1-7 record against conference opponents this season, and they are 2-6 ATS in those games. Their average margin of defeat is just shy of 11 points per game. The Hokies are showing no signs of life coming off back-to-back losses by 20 points or more.

The Terrapins have been victim to an incredibly difficult schedule, but they have still managed to post a 4-4 record against ACC opponents. They are coming off a big win over Miami in their last outing, and managed to stay within four points of No. 20 ranked Pittsburgh in the game prior. Maryland has a +5 figure in rebounding margin, and they have a strong head-to-head history against Virginia tech. The Terrapins are a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS in their last three meetings with the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Maryland on the other hand is 14-4 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team that has won 40 to 49 percent of their games after 15 or more games. The Hokies have lost six of their eight conference games by six or more points, and that is a trend I expect to see continue in this matchup.

3* Bailout Blowout on Utah Jazz +

The Warriors are 4-6 in their last 10 games and none of those wins have come consecutively. They are coming off a big win over the Clippers last night, and they are playing in a back-to-back situation when they face the Jazz this evening. After a big win over a division rival I think the Warriors are playing in a letdown spot tonight. Golden State has played very sloppy basketball on the road averaging 17 turnovers per game, and they are facing a Utah team that is coming off three days of rest.

The Jazz are playing well right now picking up back-to-back wins in their last two games. These teams met earlier this season in Salt Lake City with the Warriors picking up the win. Golden State has not won multiple regular season games in Utah in the same season since the 1980-81 campaign. The Jazz have covered the spread in three of their last four meetings against Golden State, and I see no reason why that trend won't continue for today's game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Utah. You should play on home underdogs like the Jazz when they have played five or less games in the last 14 days, and they have a losing record on the season. This system identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 42-18 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +

The Nets have been on an incredible run since the New Year. They have posted a 10-2 record in 2014 and we are getting a lot of value on Brooklyn as an underdog on their home court in this game. Oklahoma City is coming off a big upset win as an underdog against Miami, and I think that has the Thunder playing in a letdown spot in this matchup with the Nets.

These teams met earlier this month in Oklahoma City and it was Brooklyn that walked away with a victory. The Nets picked up a two point win on the road as a double-digit underdog, and considering how well Brooklyn has played recently there is no reason to expect a different outcome in this matchup on their home court. The Nets defense has been a key factor in their recent run. They have held opponents to a mere 91.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Thunder. You should fade teams like Oklahoma City when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent when that opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite against a division rival. This system has resulted in a 58-26 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland -

This game has blowout written all over it. Oakland may not have a great record, but they have played an incredibly difficult schedule this season. The Golden Grizzlies have faced four ranked opponents, and they have played in some very close games against them. They lost by just four points against then No. 5 ranked Michigan State on a neutral court, and they come into this matchup against Youngstown State with a 7-2 record at home.

The Penguins have struggled on the road this season posting a 4-7 record. I expect Oakland to put a huge number on the scoreboard facing such a soft defense. The Golden Grizzlies average 82.3 points per game at home while the Penguins are allowing 78.9 points per game on the road. Youngstown State is also -5 in rebounding margin on the road. They are at a statistical disadvantage on the boards and in the turnover margin.

Youngstown State comes into this matchup with a 2-5 ATS record against conference opponents. They have been given far too much credit from the oddsmakers recently, and that has resulted in a 2-3 ATS record in the Penguins last five games. Oakland has several statistical advantages in this game, and I think they are being undervalued because of their poor record. The Golden Grizzlies strength of schedule has been ridiculously difficult this year, and with home court advantage Oakland should easily win this game.

5* Ivy League Game of the Year on Penn +

The wrong team is favored in this game since Dartmouth will be without its best player. Gabas Maldunas is out for the season with an ACL injury, and he is Dartmouth's leading scorer this season. You can see the impact Maldunas has on the team by looking at Dartmouth's performance against Harvard. They lost on the road by 16 points with Maldunas in the lineup and lost by 30 points at home without him.

Pennsylvania is a much better team than their record would indicate. They may be 4-11 overall this season, but the non-conference schedule has been incredibly tough. Dartmouth on the other hand has played an incredibly soft schedule this year, and I don't think the Big Green will be able to compete with Penn in this game. The Quakers are 1-0 against Ivy League opponents, while Dartmouth has lost five consecutive games including a 0-2 record against Ivy League teams. The Big Green are averaging just 51.8 points per game during that five game stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Quakers. You should play on underdogs coming off a win of 15 points or more when they are facing an opponent that is coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 255-164 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Late Night Bailout on Long Beach State +

The oddsmakers have given Hawaii too much credit for home court advantage in this game. The 49ers have been playing great basketball recently, winning three of their last four games. Two of those wins have come by a double-digit margin, and the third was an upset win as a road underdog. Long Beach State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games, and I like their chances to continue that trend against the Warriors.

Hawaii is a bad team defensively. They are surrendering 72.3 points per game this season. The Warriors offensive numbers are a bit inflated thanks to a soft schedule. Hawaii's opponents have been poor defensive teams that surrender an average of almost 75 points per game. That won't be the case in this matchup against Long Beach State. The 49ers are holding opponents 1.5 points below their scoring average this season.

You should play against home favorites that are coming off an upset win as an underdog when they have won 60 to 80 percent of their games and they are playing a team that has won only 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 59-25 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on Warriors -

This game has blowout written all over it. Golden State has played extremely well against division opponents this season. They have a 6-3 record, and the Warriors have the luxury of playing host in this matchup with the Clippers. Golden State is averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season, and they should score at will against a Clippers defense that has surrendered 103.9 points per game against division opponents.

The rest profile also favors Golden State in this matchup. They are coming off a day of rest as they prepare for their fifth consecutive home game. The Clippers have had a crazy schedule playing seven straight on the road before returning home last night to face Washington. Now they are playing in a back-to-back situation as they head north to face the Warriors tonight. This will be the Clippers fifth game in the past seven days.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Golden State after 42 or more games in the season when they are an average ball handling team committing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers versus an average pressure defense that is forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game. This matchup identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 94-59 (61%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup between Louisiana Tech and UTEP. The Miners have a respectable 4-1 record in C-USA play, and they can move into a share of first place with a win over Louisiana Tech tonight. The Bulldogs are still without leading scorer Raheem Appleby, and with the competition level getting a lot stronger in this matchup I expect his absence to catch up with them.

The Bulldogs typically have a big rebounding advantage over their opponents, but that won't be the case against UTEP. The Miners are +6 in rebounding margin at home, and I see no reason why they won't dominate the boards in this matchup. The Miners are also riding a four game win streak, and they have a 10-3 straight up record at home.

This matchup fits into a system to play against Louisiana Tech. You should fade a hot team that has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games when they have won 80 percent or more of their games overall and they are facing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Tennessee State +

Tennessee State may not have a great overall record, but they are a much better team than they are getting credit for. This matchup has a lot of upset potential, and I like the Tigers to play a great game against their in-state conference rival. Tennessee Tech picked up a win in the first meeting of the season between these teams, but it was only by four points. The Tigers had a poor shooting performance in that game, but we can expect a much better showing in the second meeting of the season between these teams.

Tennessee State played Wichita State to 14 points on the road, and lost by just five points on the road against Auburn. This is a young team that has shown a lot of improvement each week. They don't have any seniors, so everyone on the team will be fighting for a position on next year's team. There will be no packing it in for the Tigers this season, and they will have the revenge factor on their side in this matchup.

Tennessee Tech has been given too much credit from the oddsmakers when playing at home. The Golden Eagles have a 2-3 record against the spread at home, and they are 1-4 ATS overall in their last five games. Tennessee State on the other hand has a 7-4 ATS record on the road, and a winning record of 10-8 ATS overall this season. This is a big rivalry game for these schools, and it is one the Tigers hold the advantage. They are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons, and I expect them to improve on those numbers today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -

The Indiana Pacers should dominate this game from the start. They have the best home court advantage in basketball, posting a 21-1 straight up record and a 16-6 ATS record in home games this season. The Pacers lost two of their last four games, and that has created value in this matchup with Phoenix. If not for those two recent losses I suspect the Pacers would be a much larger favorite.

The Pacers defense has been unbelievably good this season. They are holding opponents to a mere 83.7 points per game at home, while scoring an average of 99.5 points in those games. The Suns defense has struggled this season, and they are going through a really rough stretch recently. Phoenix has surrendered 104.2 points per game over its last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Pacers. You should play on home favorites like Indiana when they are a well rested team playing their second game in five days and they are facing an opponent that is playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system is 29-10 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on Belmont -

This game has blowout written all over it. Belmont is an explosive offensive team with a very underrated defense. The Bruins are averaging 79 points per game, and they have barely slowed down when playing on the road by still averaging 77.8 points per game. The defense has surrendered 75.2 points per game, but a big reason for that has been an incredibly difficult schedule. The Bruin's opponents have an offensive average of almost 73 points per game.

Belmont has dominated the head-to-head series with Morehead State. They are a perfect 3-0 straight up the last three seasons. The Bruins picked up a 14 point win the last time these teams met, and I don't think a change in venue is enough to swing the outcome of this game enough to give Morehead State the advantage. Belmont is one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank sixth in the nation in field goal percentage making 50.1 percent of their attempts.

Morehead State has been a great team to fade in conference games the last two seasons. They have an 8-17 record against the spread, and they are just 2-5 ATS this season when facing an Ohio Valley rival. Morehead played a great game statistically in the first meeting of the season between these teams shooting 46 percent from the field and 41.2 percent on three point attempts. There was not much else they could do to narrow the gap, so I see no reason to expect a different result in this matchup.

3* No Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -

We are getting a lot of value on the Mavericks as such small favorites on their home court. Houston is playing in a back-to-back situation after playing host to San Antonio last night. I expect the Rockets to struggle without a day of rest and playing against a team like Dallas that has a 15-7 record at home this season. The Rockets have been a .500 team on the road for most of the season, and I have them losing big against the Mavericks who are coming into this matchup with two days of rest.

Houston gets a lot of media attention for their high scoring offense, but it is actually Dallas that has the statistical advantage in this matchup. The Mavericks are averaging 106.6 points per game at home this season, and I expect them to score at-will against a Rockets team that has surrendered 105.7 points per game on the road. Dallas has also played incredibly well against division opponents. They are averaging 106.9 points per game against the division and have a 7-3 record in those games.

Dallas is 14-4 ATS in the second half of the season against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The Mavericks also have a 26-12 ATS record in all games when the line has been set at three points or less in either direction. Houston on the other hand has a 9-20 ATS record on the road when coming off an under. The Rockets have failed to score 100 points or more in three straight games, and I expect them to struggle keeping pace with the Mavericks in this matchup.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month on 76ers +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this game. Boston is playing in a tough back-to-back situation after getting blown out last night on the road against New York. Philadelphia on the other hand is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The 76ers offense gives them a big advantage in this game. They are averaging 101.4 points per game against division opponents, while Boston comes into this matchup averaging a mere 91.7 points in division games.

The Celtics are struggling just like the 76ers right now, and with the rest profiles favoring Philadelphia it looks like they catch the first break. Boston has lost four of its last five games, scoring a mere 89.8 points per game while allowing over 100 points per game during that stretch. The 76ers might also be 1-4 in their last five, but it has not been from a lack of offense. They are scoring 101.6 points per game during their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 76ers. You should play on road teams like Philadelphia after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game, and they are playing a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 80-26 (76%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Boston has not done a good job of protecting their home court, and playing without rest makes Philadelphia an easy call in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston College -

Virginia Tech is easily the worst team in the conference, and Boston College should have no problem picking up a big win at home in this matchup. The Hokies are averaging a mere 60.8 points per game on the road this season, and they will struggle to keep pace with this Eagles team that is averaging just shy of 72 points per game at home. Boston College may not have a great record, but they have certainly shown flashes of greatness this year.

The Eagles played a much closer game with Syracuse than the final score would indicate. The same can also be said about their game with North Carolina. The schedule has been incredibly difficult this season, yet Boston College has managed to play in some very close games. They already have a three point win on the road against Virginia Tech, and with home court advantage in these team's second meeting of the season I see no reason why the Eagles can't widen that margin of victory.

Virginia Tech is 2-10 ATS when coming off a game scoring 55 points or less. They have also been a great team to fade after playing from the road underdog position. The Hokies are 3-14 ATS over the last three seasons when coming off a game as a road dog. The Eagles have dominated the head-to-head series with Virginia Tech. They are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in the last four games against the Hokies.

3* No Doubt Rout on La Salle +

George Washington is without its best player tonight when they take on La Salle, and I think they will have a hard time protecting their undefeated record at home without him. Kethan Savage is second in scoring and pulls in 4.6 rebounds per game for the Colonials. He is also second on the team in assists and first on the team in steals. Making up for his lost production will be a challenge, and I think La Salle is good enough to pull off the upset without Savage in the game.

The Explorers are averaging 70.9 points per game this season so keeping pace with GW should be a fairly easy task to accomplish. The defense is surrendering just 65.6 points per game when playing on the road. The Explorers have played well against conference opponents, posting a 3-2 record this season. Their most recent loss came in double-overtime against VCU in a game that was much closer than the final score.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Explorers. You should play on a team like La Salle that has failed to cover the spread in three or more games when they are playing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more games. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 119-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies +

The Trailblazers are struggling right now having dropped three of their last five games. Even when they have been winning, Portland is squeaking by its opponents. They have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games, and that is a trend I think will continue in this matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis has a very stingy defense, and after seeing Portland get held to just 88 points in their last outing I like the Grizzlies chances to put on a strong defensive performance. Memphis is surrendering a mere 94.2 points per game on the road this season. The Grizzlies defense is playing incredibly well recently, allowing just 86 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Grizzlies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Memphis when they have gone under the total by 36 or more points in their last five games, and they have a win percentage of 45 to 55 percent on the season. This system identifies teams with undervalued defenses, and it has resulted in a 50-23 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* American Athletic Game of the Week on South Florida +

This game has upset written all over it. The last time these teams met South Florida was on the road, and I expect them to get some revenge against the Mustangs when they play from the host role in the second meeting of the season. The Bulls have played a tough schedule recently, and I think that has forced the oddsmakers to under value South Florida in this game.

The Bulls have played three consecutive games against ranked opponents. After a brutal stretch of schedule like that I expect South Florida to respond with a strong performance against SMU. The Mustangs have benefit from a soft schedule recently, and they are playing their second consecutive road game in the last three days. That should have SMU playing in a letdown spot against the Bulls.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing South Florida. You should play on underdogs like the Bulls after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games combined when playing in the month of January. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 42-15 (74%) record against the spread.

3* Main Event on Eastern Washington +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup between the Eastern Washington Eagles and Portland State Vikings. Eastern Washington is averaging 74.2 points per game and they have the 112th scoring offense in the country. Portland State on the other hand is coming into this matchup with the 186th ranked scoring offense with 71.6 points per game. The Vikings also ranked near last in rebounds per game with 31.8.

Portland State has struggled against Big West opponents this season. They have a 3-4 record in conference games and a 2-5 ATS record in those matchups. Sadly, the oddsmakers have set the bar incredibly low for the Vikings in those games listing them as an underdog in five of their seven matchups with Big Sky foes. Three of the Vikings last four losses have come by a double-digit margin, and with Eastern Washington having such a strong rebounding advantage in this matchup, that trend will likely continue.

Portland State is 9-18 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons. They are also 2-10 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 turnovers or less after 15 or more games. You should play on underdogs like Eastern Washington when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games in a January game. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing and it has resulted in a 42-15 (73%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Vegas Insider of the Month on Utah Jazz -

The Sacramento Kings have not played well when they are completely healthy, so I do not like their chances tonight when they will try to avoid a fourth straight loss. The Kings will be visiting the Utah Jazz, and things don't look good since both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are listed as doubtful for this matchup. Sacramento already struggles in road games with a 6-13 record and without Cousins and Gay the Utah Jazz should win this game in a blowout.

Utah will have no problem scoring points as they face one of the league's worst defenses. The Kings have surrendered 106.7 points per game on the road this season. Over its last five games Sacramento has allowed 113 points per game. That puts them in a tough spot tonight against a Jazz team that has a 6-2 record at home in their last eight games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Jazz. You should play against road teams like Sacramento when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the season playing another team with a losing record. This system is 48-18 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Phoenix Suns are playing in a back-to-back situation after coming off a road game last night in Cleveland. That has them playing in a letdown situation today as they come into Philadelphia without rest to play their second consecutive road game, and third overall game in the last four days. There is a lot of value on Philadelphia as an underdog in this matchup since they are coming off a day of rest and played at home in their last outing.

The 76ers have played well on their home court, and I like their chances to pull off an upset in this game. Philadelphia averages 100.8 points per game at home while Phoenix is averaging 99.3 points per game on the road. Over their last five games the Suns have surrendered 100.8 points per game, so I don't think Philadelphia will have any problem getting points on the board in this matchup.

The Suns have not fared well against teams with a losing record. They are 1-10 ATS in the second half of the season against a team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games over the last two seasons. I think we are getting added value on the 76ers with the return of Evan Turner. In the last meeting between these teams Turner had to miss the game because of a sore knee. It is also worth noting that the last time these teams played in Philadelphia it was the 76ers who picked up a 104-101 victory.

4* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -

We are getting a lot of value on the Warriors today thanks to a couple bad performances against some very good teams. I have Golden State getting things back on track tonight with a big win over Portland. The Trailblazers have been horrible defensively. They are surrendering 110.2 points per game over their last five games, and things could get really out of hand tonight against this Warriors team that averages 105.9 points per game at home.

While Golden State has had a few struggles on the defensive end of the court recently, you also can't ignore the fact that they held opponents to an average of 92.8 points per game during their recent 10 game win streak. Portland has lost its last two games on the road, scoring just 97 points in their last outing against Oklahoma City. I expect a similar performance out of the Trailblazers in this game, thanks to a strong defensive performance from Golden State.

The Warriors are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. Portland on the other hand has a 1-10 ATS record in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This matchup also fits a system to play on favorites like Golden State when they are allowing a shooting percentage of 43.5 to 45.5 percent and are playing a poor defensive team allowing 45.5 to 47.5 percent when both teams have a +3 to +5.5 figure in rebounding margin. This system is 39-17 (70%) against the spread.

4* Total Dominator on Nets/Celtics UNDER

The total in this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Boston is playing some solid defense right now surrendering just 87.8 points per game against division opponents. The Celtics offense has been horrible this year, so I think the Nets are poised for a strong defensive performance too. Boston averages 95.1 points per game and should struggle against this Brooklyn team that has held opponents to 96.4 points per game over its last five games. That five game stretch has come against opponents with a lot more scoring potential than the Celtics bring to this matchup.

The under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 home games when coming off a matchup with a non-conference opponent. The under is also 12-4 when Boston has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is well rested right now, playing just their second game in five days. The under is 26-14 in the Nets last 40 games when playing in a 2-in-5 situation over the last two seasons.

There is a very profitable system backing the under in this matchup. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing their second game in five days, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. This system is 48-21 (70%) to the under for the last five seasons. With both teams playing solid defense recently I expect this to be a very low scoring game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -

The Celtics are a bad team and I like the Nets to win this game in a blowout. Brooklyn is the hottest team in the league since the New Year winning nine of its last 10 games. They have covered the spread in eight of those games, yet the oddsmakers still seem to be undervaluing the Nets. A once struggling offense from Brooklyn is now averaging 103.1 points per game over its last five games.

Boston comes into this game with a 3-16 record in their last 19 games. I don't expect home court advantage to be a big factor since it is a short travel time from Brooklyn to Boston, and the Celtics fan base will probably be more excited about seeing Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett than they will their own players. Pierce and Garnett were key factors in turning the Celtics franchise around, and this will be the first game on their old home court since the blockbuster trade that sent them to the Nets.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are coming off a loss by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in three straight games. This system has a 43-19 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Stanford -

This game has blowout written all over it. Stanford is the better offensive team in this matchup, averaging 76.8 points per game this season against opponents whose defensive scoring average is a mere 69.8 points per game. The Cardinal should score at will against this soft Trojans defense. USC has surrendered 74.3 points per game this year, and they are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding any time soon.

USC is really struggling right now. They have lost five of their last six games straight up. All five of those losses have come by a double-digit margin. In fact, the Trojans average margin of loss in those games is a whopping 22.4 points. Stanford on the other hand has suffered just two double-digit loses all season, both coming against some very good teams. They also have a win over then No. 10 ranked UConn and No. 17 ranked Oregon, so there has not been a lot of disparity in strength of schedule.

USC is 7-17 ATS against good teams that are outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games. The Trojans are also 17-32 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and 12-26 ATS in all home games during that time. Stanford on the other hand has a 20-8 ATS record on the road when coming off a game with a combined score of 165 points or more. The Cardinal are hot right now shooting over 52 percent from the field in three of their last four games, and I expect them to easily get past the Trojans and their soft defense.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland Trailblazers -

This line seems inappropriate given Portland's margin of victory when playing at home this season. The Trailblazers are a very high scoring team averaging 109 points per game for the home fan base. They will face a soft defense tonight when they play host to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota is surrendering 103.5 points per game on the road this year.

Portland is playing with a day of rest, and they are coming off a win at home in their last outing. This will be the third consecutive road game for Minnesota, and the wear and tear of all that travel will catch up with them tonight. The Timberwolves are also playing in a back-to-back situation after squeaking by Golden State last night.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Minnesota. You should fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Timberwolves when they are a poor defensive team that has allowed 99 or more points per game and they are facing an opponent that has surrendered 100 points or more in four straight games. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 64-39 (62%) record against the spread.

5* Bailout Game of the Month on Nuggets +

Denver is playing in the perfect spot to pull off an upset over Indiana. The Pacers are playing their fourth consecutive road game, and their fourth game in the last seven days. That is a lot of travel, and the fact that Indiana is also playing in a back-to-back situation adds even more value to the Nuggets. With the Nuggets playing the host role in this matchup they are an easy call tonight.

I expect the wear and tear of Indiana's road trip to catch up with them tonight. The Nuggets are a very high scoring and uptempo team, and combined with the altitude and facing a tired team like the Pacers that gives them a big advantage in this matchup. Denver averages 103.4 points per game and they are poised to put up another big number today. Over their last five games the Pacers have surrendered an average of 102 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pacers. You should play against a team like Indiana when they average 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 102 points per game or more when they are coming off a matchup with a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies potentially tired defenses and has resulted in a 72-35 (67%) record against the spread.

3* Total Annihilator on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER

With the Grizzlies playing at home I think they will control the pace of this game. That puts a lot of value on the under since they are surrendering just 96.3 points per game this season. The under is 22-8 in Memphis games after a matchup where both teams scored 90 points or less.

This is the second leg of a home-and-home series between these teams. In the first game these teams combined for a score of 175 points, and there is no reason to expect an outcome much different than that in this matchup. Memphis has gone under the total in five consecutive games, and the Rockets have gone under the total in five of their last seven games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when a team, like Memphis, is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win over a division rival. This system has gone under the total at a rate of 69-36 (66%) over the last five seasons.

4* Ohio Valley Game of the Week on Belmont -

This game has blowout written all over it. Eastern Kentucky is nowhere near as good as their 14-6 record would indicate. Five of their six losses have come by six points or more, and I expect them to struggle against the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky's stat sheet is bloated thanks to their soft schedule. Their opponents have surrendered an average of 74.9 points per game this season so I am not impressed by their 76.5 points per game scored when playing on the road.

The Belmont Bruins come into this matchup protecting a 7-1 record on their home court. They average over 80 points per game at home. The Bruins are an excellent foul drawing team, and I think their 73 percent from the free throw line gives them another huge advantage against the Colonels. I also expect the Bruins to dominate the rebounding margin in this game. Eastern Kentucky is -6 in rebounding margin overall, and that number drops to -8 when playing on the road.

The Colonels have had issues with getting into foul trouble this season. They are averaging 22 personal fouls per game on the road, and fading the Colonels is an easy call for a team that is 25-43 ATS against teams making 72 percent or more of their free throw attempts. Eastern Kentucky is going to lose the battle from the free throw line as well as losing in rebounding margin. With the Bruins playing at home they should easily cover such a small spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Southern Miss -

There is no reason for the Golden Eagles to be listed as anything less than a double-digit favorite in this game. They come into this matchup with a 17-3 overall record this season, including a 4-1 record in C-USA play. They are facing an East Carolina Pirates team that has yet to win a game against a conference opponent. They have lost half of their conference games by a double-digit margin, and have yet to face a conference opponent that has won more than 11 games on the season.

Southern Miss has a very underrated scoring defense. They have held opponents whose offensive average is over 70 points per game to a mere 63.2 points per game. They are an outstanding rebounding team with a +7 figure in rebounding margin. The Golden Eagles are averaging 74 points per game on offensive, so I don't think they will have any trouble putting up a number big enough to cover this spread. The Pirates have faced some soft opponents this year. Those opponents are surrendering an average of 75.5 points per game, so I don't think East Carolina is as good as its 11-8 record would indicate.

This matchup fits into a system to fade the Pirates. You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like East Carolina when they are coming off a loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of six points or more, and they are playing against an opponent that is coming off a road win over a conference rival. This system has a 94-51 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on NC Greensboro +

The Chattanooga Mocs are very overrated. They opened the season with a 4-8 record, and caught a hot streak during a very soft stretch of schedule. Things will get a lot tougher today when they face the UNC-Greensboro Spartans.

Greensboro has played a tough schedule this season. They have faced four ACC opponents and one team from the American Athletic conference. Their difficult strength of schedule should have the Spartans well prepared for an overrated team like Chattanooga. The Mocs have a soft defense that is surrendering 74.1 points per game this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Greensboro when they are scoring 67-74 points per game on the season while coming off two or more consecutive overs, and they are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 74-78 points per game after 15 or more games. This system is 29-9 (76%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Long Beach State -

This game has blowout written all over it. The Long Beach State 49ers have a dominating advantage in rebounding and turnovers, and combined with home court advantage I think they will easily win this game by a double-digit margin. The 49ers are much better than their record would indicate because of their incredibly difficult strength of schedule.

Long Beach State has faced seven teams that were either ranked at the time of play or at some other point in the season. Their two conference losses have come against teams with a combined 25-12 record this season, and they have been two of the top three teams in the Big West conference. The 49ers have the luxury of playing host to a team that is surrendering 76.5 points per game, so I expect the 49ers to put a big number on the scoreboard.

Long Beach State is 11-2 ATS against poor defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 45 percent or more. CS-Northridge comes into this matchup with a 3-11 ATS record when coming off a road loss. The Matadors are a bad team, and the underrated 49ers should have no problem picking up a big win on their home court today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Nevada +

I expect to see the Wolf Pack play a close game with the Cowboys today. Nevada is an uptempo team averaging 59 shot attempts per game on the road. Wyoming on the other hand averages just 45 shot attempts per game. The Wolf Pack are scoring 77.5 points per game in those road games, so I like their chances to put a big number on the scoreboard today.

I think Wyoming is overrated based on what has been a pretty soft schedule for the Cowboys. They did face Nevada earlier this season, and it was a game the Wolfpack won by three points. I don't think a change in venue is enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Cowboys to cover the spread. Wyoming's home court advantage has been non-existent this season, and Nevada has a 7-2 ATS record on the road.

Nevada is 40-21 ATS in road games against poor pressure defense teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games on the season. They are also 19-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last three seasons. This game should end up with a similar outcome to the first meeting of the season between these teams. The Wolf Pack dominated the offensive glass in that matchup, and those second chance shot attempts will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this Sun Belt Conference showdown. Both of these teams come into this matchup with a 12-7 overall record. Western Kentucky has the advantage in conference play with a 4-2 record, while Louisiana-Lafayette sits at 3-3. The Hilltoppers have played a much tougher schedule, so I think records alone are very misleading for these teams.

Statistically Western Kentucky should dominate this game. Its defense has surrendered a mere 63.9 points per game when playing on the road this season. LA-Lafayette comes into this matchup surrendering an average of 75.3 points per game, so I expect the Hilltoppers to score at-will on the offensive end of the court.

Western Kentucky is 32-16 ATS when playing on the road against a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games after 15 or more games in the season. Louisiana-Lafayette comes into this matchup with a 2-10 ATS record when playing any team with a winning record after 15 or more games. The Ragin' Cajuns are overrated and I expect Western Kentucky to put them in their place today.

5* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Northern Iowa -

The Panthers are clearly the better team in this matchup, and I expect them to make easy work of the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Panthers have a better record than the Ramblers, and the strength of their schedule has been a lot more difficult. Northern Iowa has faced three teams that have been ranked in the top 10 at some point in the season. The Panthers picked up an 11 point win against VCU, and took Iowa State to overtime this year.

Statistically the Northern Iowa has a huge advantage in this matchup. It is averaging 72.3 points per game to just 66.4 points per game from the Ramblers. UNI has been an excellent ball control team committing just 11 turnovers per game, and they have a defense that has held opponents to 68.4 points per game. While their scoring defense may not stand out as being above average, when you consider the schedule the Panthers have faced it is a very impressive number. Their opponents have averaged over 70 points per game prior to facing the Panthers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Northern Iowa. You should play on road favorites like the Panthers when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points combined in their last three games, and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 41-16 (72%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +

The oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Washington has won four of its last six games, with their two losses coming by small single-digit margins. The offense is rolling right now, averaging 105.2 points per game over their last five games. They should score at-will against a Suns defense that has surrendered 105 points per game over their last five games.

The Suns are coming off a big win over the Pacers, and I have them playing in a letdown situation in today's matchup with the Wizards. Phoenix has shot over 50 percent in their last two games, and that is a feat that is simply unsustainable. They have shot over 50 percent just three times in their last 19 games while shooting under 45 percent in nine of those games.

The Suns are 45-74 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more points. You should play on road teams like Washington when they average 98 to 102 points per game, and they are coming off a loss by six points or less and are facing a poor defense that is surrendering 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 45-19 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Suns OVER 207

This total is set far too low given how well these teams have been playing on offense recently. Over their last five games the Wizards are averaging 105.2 points per game. The Suns have also been on a scoring binge averaging 113 points per game over their last five games. These teams have an 11-3 record in favor of the over in their last 14 games combined.

Both offenses are playing great right now, but both of these defenses have been horrible. Washington has surrendered 101.2 points per game over their last five games, and I think that number will only get worse against a high scoring team like the Suns. Phoenix has had a notoriously bad defense all season, but somehow they have managed to play worse than average recently allowing 105 points per game over their last five games.

The over is 13-2 in the Suns last 15 home games against opponents who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The over is also 13-5 when the Suns are playing against a team with a losing record this season. You should play the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a loss by three points or less and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. The over has a 54-23 (70%) record in this situation.

3* No Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies +

The Memphis Grizzlies had a season's best win streak snapped in a three point loss against New Orleans in their last outing. I like the Grizzlies chance to get things back on track in this home-and-home series with the Houston Rockets. Houston is facing a well rested Memphis team that is playing just their second game in the past seven days. This will be the Rocket's fourth game during that seven-day stretch.

Houston is playing through a lot of injuries right now, and I expect them to struggle with this tough Memphis defense. The Grizzlies are surrendering a mere 94.6 points per game on the road this season. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have held opponents to just 90 points per game. The Rockets on the other hand have a soft defense, and I think that is what will end up costing them in this matchup. They are allowing 103.8 points per game over their last five games.

Memphis is 43-28 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, and they are 31-18 ATS against good shooting teams making over 46 percent of their shots. A big reason for their success against good teams goes back to their outstanding defensive play. The Grizzlies are not getting enough credit from the oddsmakers in this game. This matchup presents a perfect opportunity for Memphis to pull off an upset, so I like the Grizzlies chances of at least keeping this game within five or less points.

3* Main Event on Quinnipiac +

This is a lot of points for the Bobcats to be receiving in a game of such high importance. A win over the Gaels would move them into a share of first place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Quinnipiac is on fire right now having won five of its last six games. Their margin of victory in those five games is an impressive 11.4 points per game. The Bobcats have an 11-6 overall record, and they have been exceeding oddsmakers expectations by posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games.

Iona comes into this matchup with a 6-10 record against the spread. They have been a major disappointment this season, and I think they are severely overrated by the oddsmakers in this game. The Gaels have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are surrendering 80.2 points per game this year, and they have received little to no benefit when playing at home. The last time these teams met Quinnipiac picked up a 12 point win at home, and a change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Gaels to cover the spread.

Iona is 5-17 ATS against good teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more points per game. The Gaels are also 11-26 ATS in home games when playing a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games on the season. The Bobcats have had no problem scoring points this year. They average 77.5 points per game overall and 77.3 points per game on the road. The Gaels defense is a mess, and I think it will cost them again in the second meeting of the season between these teams.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Arizona State -

I don't think Utah is as good as their 14-4 record would indicate. They have played the majority of their games at home this year, and when they have played on the road it has not looked good. The Utes are 0-3 in road games, and I expect them to struggle against an Arizona State team that is 9-1 when playing at home.

The Sun Devils come into this matchup averaging 80.1 points per game at home. While the offense has been spectacular, it is actually the defense that has been the key to their success. Arizona State is surrendering a mere 61.1 points per game at home, and they should make easy work of a Utah team that averages just 56.7 points per game when playing on the road.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Sun Devils. You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Arizona State when they are shooting 45-47.5 percent and they are facing a defense that has allowed less than 40 percent shooting in a game two good ball handling teams that average less than 14.5 turnovers after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 66-31 (68%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on LA Lakers +

The Lakers may not be winning a lot of games right now, but they have certainly been exceeding the oddsmaker's expectations. Los Angeles has covered the spread in five consecutive games, and they look to make it a sixth straight Thursday night against the Miami Heat. Miami comes into this matchup having lost four of their last seven games, covering the spread in just two of those games.

The Lakers offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Over their last five games they have averaged 110.2 points per game. The Heat on the other hand have been struggling on defense recently. In Miami's last five games they have surrendered an average of 100.6 points per game. The Lakers defense has certainly had their share of struggles too, but that has only created value in this matchup. Los Angeles has a 26-11 record against the spread when playing on the road after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Lakers. You should play on underdogs of 10 or more points when they are revenging a loss where their opponents scored 100 or more points, and when that opponent is coming off a straight up win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread. This system is 47-21 (69%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against home favorites of 10 points or more like Miami when they average 103 or more points per game, and they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 27-6 (82%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte +

This is way too many points for Charlotte to be receiving against a Louisiana Tech team that will be without its leading scorer. Raheem Appleby leads the Bulldogs in scoring with 16.1 points per game, and he is out for 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. Appleby is one of just three players averaging double-digits in scoring, so his production will certainly be missed.

If the Bulldogs were facing a bad team they could probably get by without Appleby. However, they are facing a Charlotte 49ers team that is 12-5 on the year and currently sitting in second place in Conference USA standings. The 49ers have two wins over teams that are currently ranked, and they have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. Their difficult schedule should have them well prepared for the Bulldogs, especially since Louisiana Tech is without its best player.

These teams are even in several key statistical categories. However, it is the 49ers that get the advantage in three-point shooting. Charlotte is making 42.1 percent of its three-point attempts on the road this season. The team averages 76.2 points per game, so staying within a double-digit margin against the Bulldogs should be an easy task to accomplish.

4* Conference USA Game of the Week on Tulane +

The Tulane Green Wave have several key advantages over the East Carolina Pirates. Tulane has played a much stronger schedule, yet they have a very similar record to East Carolina. The Green Wave's opponents have surrendered an average of 69.9 points per game this season, compared to 75.7 points per game allowed from the Pirate's opponents.

Both of these teams have put up similar defensive numbers, and giving Tulane eight points is simply too many in a matchup that could go either way. These teams have similar figures in rebounding margin and turnovers. The fact that Tulane has played a much stronger schedule tells me they are the better team. I like their chances to play a close game with East Carolina, and even have a chance to pull off an upset.

East Carolina has struggled when facing a winning team. They are 17-35 ATS when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games after 15 or more games in the season. The Pirates defense has been soft, and they are 9-25 ATS after three straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or less turnovers. Home court advantage is not enough to swing this game by the amount of points it would take to cover this spread. The Green Wave are every bit as good as the Pirates. This game could go either way, but it should be decided by less than eight points regardless of who comes out on top.

4* Southern Conference Game of the Week on Davidson -

After getting off to a slow start Davidson has really turned things on recently. The Wildcats have won four of their last five games, with all four of those games being won by a double-digit margin. The only loss during that stretch was a two-point loss to Elon in a game that went to overtime. The competition is much weaker tonight, so I like Davidson's chances to pick up a big road win.

The Wildcats are averaging 76.4 points per game this season. Their production is barely slowed down in road games averaging 75.7 points per game. Western Carolina may have an undefeated record at home, but they have faced several schools that are not even division one opponents. In fact, the oddsmakers have only set three lines out of the Catamounts eight home games.

Davidson has been a great team to back in conference play over the years. They are 143-109 (57%) against the spread when facing a conference opponent. The Wildcats are also 45-27 ATS when the line is less than three points. I think Western Carolina's soft schedule has them coming into this matchup very overrated, and I like the Wildcats to give them a reality check today.

3* No Doubt Rout on La Salle +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup between the La Salle Explorers and St Bonaventure Bonnies. The Bonnies have lost three consecutive games, including an eight point loss at home in their last outing. They have shown no signs of being able to stop the bleeding any time soon, so I expect the Explorers to pick up their sixth consecutive win in this game.

La Salle has a very good defense, and I think they have a lot of matchup advantages on the court. The Explorers have held opponents to a mere 65.6 points per game on the road this season. That is a very impressive number considering their opponents scoring average is almost 73 points per game. Against common opponents this year La Salle has a 3-0 record, to a 1-2 record from the Bonnies. The disparity in talent is obvious so we will happily take the free points.

St Bonaventure is 1-11 ATS in home games after two straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls, and they are 6-22 ATS in home games when coming off a home loss. The Bonnies are also 5-15 ATS in home games when when coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Last season La Salle took both games over St Bonaventure, and I like the explorers to keep that trend alive this season.

5* Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -

The Thunder have played a brutal schedule recently, and it will catch up with them today against the Spurs. Oklahoma City is playing in a back-to-back situation after making a late comeback last night against Portland. It was very obvious that the wear and tear of their recent schedule is catching up with them. The Thunder are now playing their fifth game in the past seven days. The Spurs on the other hand are coming into this matchup playing on two days of rest, and have the benefit of home court advantage.

San Antonio has won seven of their last eight games. They are one of the toughest home teams in the league, and I don't see the Thunder keeping pace with their high scoring offense in this game. The Spurs are averaging 105.3 points per game at home. They also have a very underrated defense that is surrendering 96.6 points per game this season. The Thunder take a hit in production when playing on the road. They average 2.2 points per game less, while the defense is surrendering 1.2 points per game more.

The Spurs have a 38-20 ATS record when playing only their second game in the last five days. They are also 17-6 ATS when coming off a game making 55 percent or more of their shot attempts. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team has also been the favorite, and they have posted a 6-1 ATS record. With the Spurs playing at home with two days of rest, and the Thunder playing in a back-to-back situation this game has blowout written all over it.

4* No Brainer on Oakland +

The Golden Grizzlies are a much better team than they get credit for, and I expect them to play a close game against WI-Green Bay. Oakland should have no problem keeping pace with the Phoenix in this matchup. They are averaging 73.6 points per game this season, exceeding their opponents defensive scoring average by over three points per game.

The oddsmakers overvalued Green Bay in their last outing, yet they still have the Phoenix listed as a double-digit favorite in this game. It is simply too many points against a Horizon League opponent, especially with the Phoenix coming off four consecutive road games. They have not played a game at home in almost three weeks, and the defense has been showing signs of weakness recently surrendering just over 70 points per game in their last five games.

Oakland is 29-11 ATS in road games when coming off two straight games against conference opponents. Green Bay on the other hand has posted a 4-16 ATS record off three straight wins against conference rivals. You should play against teams coming off three or more road wins when they have won 80 percent of more of their games on the season. This system is 26-6 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.

5* Heavy Hitter on Northeastern +

This is way too many points for an underrated team like Northeastern to be receiving. The Huskies have played a tough schedule this season, and they have picked up some impressive wins in the process. The highlight win of the season game in a 63-56 victory over Georgetown, so I think Northeastern is a much better team than their record indicates.

The Huskies have three losses in Colonial Athletic play, and all of those losses have come by a single-digit margin. They are up against a Towson team that is very overrated thanks to a soft schedule. The Tigers are coming off back-to-back road games against conference opponents, and I have them playing in a letdown spot at home against Northeastern.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Northeastern. You should play against home favorites like Towson when they are coming off an upset win as a road underdog and they have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season when they are playing against a team that has won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the year. This system has cashed in a 44-16 (73%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Sacramento is coming into this game playing with a day of rest, while New Orleans is playing in a back-to-back situation after a road game in Memphis last night. The Pelicans managed to pull off an upset win in that game, but they are still just 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.

Rudy Gay has been a big difference maker for Sacramento. He is averaging 23 points per game in the Kings previous six games, and Sacramento is 8-3 when he scores 20 or more points. I expect Gay, along with the rest of the Kings roster, to have an easy time scoring points. New Orleans is surrendering an average of 102.9 points per game this season.

You should play on teams like Sacramento with a line of three points or less when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points in the previous meeting, and they are coming off a home loss by 10 points or more. The Kings suffered a tough loss at the hands of Oklahoma City, and I think their poor performance against a top tier team like the Thunder has actually created value for this matchup. New Orleans is nowhere near the talent level of the Thunder, so expect a much better performance from the Kings in this outing. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 107-62 (63%) record against the spread.

5* Western Conf. Game of the Month on OKC Thunder -

The Thunder have a lot to play for in this game, and I like their chances to pick up a big win on their home court. First place in the Northwest Division is on the line, and tonight Portland will run into a red hot Thunder team and the league's leading scorer. Kevin Durant is riding seven consecutive 30-point performances as Oklahoma City tries for their fourth consecutive win.

The Trail Blazers are playing in a back-to-back situation after getting crushed by Houston last night. It was a 13-point loss for Portland, and I expect them to struggle again against this Thunder team that is 18-3 at home this season. Oklahoma City will also have the revenge factor on their side. Portland squeaked off a four point win the last time these teams met, and with a day of rest coming into this game I expect the Thunder to easily get that revenge.

The Trail Blazers are a very soft team defensively. They surrender an average of 104.2 points per game on the road this season. Oklahoma city is 53-32 against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 40-25 ATS when coming off a performance scoring 105 or more points in their last outing. The Thunder have dominated the head-to-head series between these teams posting a 6-3 ATS record over the last three seasons.

3* Main Event on Indiana +

This is a revenge game for the Hoosiers, and the oddsmakers have been a little too generous giving them so many points in the second meeting of the season between these teams. Indiana is coming off a loss to Northwestern, but I won't hold that game against them since they were playing in a letdown spot after handing the No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers their first loss of the season. I think that loss to the Wildcats has forced the oddsmakers to undervalue the Hoosiers.

Michigan State is playing in a big letdown situation. The Spartans have in-state rival Michigan on deck, and after beating the Hoosiers handily in the first meeting I think their is a lot of potential to look past Indiana. The Hoosiers will have a big size advantage in this game since Michigan State will be without Adreian Payne. He is second in scoring for the Spartans this year, and the senior forward is also one of the team's best players on the defensive end of the court. His production will be missed against a team with the size that Indiana has on the roster.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Hoosiers. You should play against favorites like Michigan State when they have won 80% or more of their games on the season and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, when the are playing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 125-75 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Marquette +

The wrong team appears to be favored when the Marquette Golden Eagles take on the Georgetown Hoyas. Marquette has played an incredibly difficult schedule this year. Half of the Golden Eagles losses have come against teams that are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point in the season. The Hoyas are really having trouble in Big East play, so there is a lot of value on a good team like Marquette coming into this game as an underdog.

Georgetown has lost three of its last four games. Their only win during that stretch was a tough overtime game that they probably should have lost during regulation. The Golden Eagles have several key advantages in this matchup. First of all, they are a great foul drawing team. The Hoyas have had a lot of problems with getting into foul trouble and if the Hoyas get in trouble early, they will struggle to slow the Golden Eagles down. Marquette also has a defensive advantage in this game. The Golden Eagles have surrendered a mere 63.6 points per game this season.

Marquette is not an underdog very often, but in those rare situations like today they have been a great team to back. With Buzz Williams as head their coach the Golden Eagles are 34-19 ATS as an underdog. With Marquette coming off a road loss I expect to see them bounce back with a strong performance in Georgetown. The Golden Eagles are 11-3 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -

These teams are headed in opposite directions. The Grizzlies come into this matchup having won six of their last seven games. Meanwhile the Pelicans have dropped their last eight consecutive games, and are showing no signs of life after getting blown out at home by a double-digit margin in their last outing.

The Pelicans have been horrible defensively this season. They are allowing an average of 106.4 points per game when playing on the road. With a defense that plays so poorly, I don't think the Pelicans will be able to make enough stops to keep this game close. New Orleans should also struggle to get points on the board against this tough Grizzlies team. Memphis is surrendering just 96.6 points per game this season.

The Grizzlies should have plenty of motivation for this game. They suffered a bad loss in New Orleans the last time these teams met, so they will be playing for revenge today. Memphis is 21-9 ATS when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points. The Grizzlies are also 41-26 ATS versus good offensive teams that are scoring 99 or more points per game.

4* Vegas Insider on Brooklyn -

The Brooklyn Nets have really turned their season around since the New Year. They have won six of their last seven games both straight up and against the spread. They should easily continue their success today against the Knicks. New York has really struggled recently. In their last five games the Knicks are 2-3 and have surrendered an average of 104.4 points per game.

Brooklyn comes into this matchup playing on three days of rest. I don't expect the Knicks to get a lot of benefit from home court advantage. Its a short trip for the Nets to make their way to Madison Square Garden since it is just 20 minutes away from the Barclays Center. I think Brooklyn will be playing with more motivation in this game too. The Nets are playing for revenge after dropping a game to the Knicks last month.

The Nets are 14-4 ATS in road games when playing just their second game in the last five days. They are also 9-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in the last 14 days. The rest profiles are heavily in favor of the Nets for this game, and with the Knicks sitting on a 5-15 ATS record at home I think Brooklyn is an easy call.

3* No Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +

Oklahoma City is playing in a letdown situation after coming off two big wins over Houston and Golden State. There is also a good chance they will be looking ahead to their matchup with Portland, so I expect a poor performance from the Thunder in this game. The Kings are playing well right now having won four of their last six games, and they have covered the spread in five of those six matchups.

The Kings are on a scoring binge right now. They are averaging 104 points per game over their last five games. They have also been dominating the rebounding margin with a +8 figure during that stretch. I think the fact that Oklahoma City has won back-to-back games against tough opponents has caused the oddsmakers to overvalue the Thunder in this matchup. With the Kings playing as well as they have recently, they are an easy call getting so many points in this game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Kings. You should play on road teams like Sacramento when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that surrenders 98 to 102 points per game when they are coming off a loss by six points or less. Sacramento suffered a single point loss to Memphis in their last outing. This system is 45-18 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.