Sports Picks & Predictions

3* NBA - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +3 -110

The Cavaliers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pistons. I just think there's no way Detroit should be laying points on the road against any team right now. The Pistons are just 7-13 overall and a miserable 1-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by 7.8 ppg. I know Detroit comes in off 132-98 blowout win over the Spurs at home, but they haven't won back-to-back games once all season. 

Cleveland is a work in progress, but they play hard and could be getting back a couple of key guys back. Rookie Dylan Windler could make his season debut and big man John Henson could return from injury. Either way I like the Cavs here, who are well rested having not played since last Friday. 

Pistons have also not shown well against bad teams, going just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. They are 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland! 

3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers ATS Line MISTAKE on Western Michigan +1½ -110

The Broncos are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Grizzlies, as my numbers suggest that Western Michigan should be the ones favored in this matchup. Both teams come in at 4-4, but Oakland is just 1-4 away from home getting outscored by almost 9 ppg. Broncos are 3-0 at home winning by 22 ppg. 

One of the big reasons the Golden Grizzlies are struggling away from home is they have inexperienced guards that are struggling to make the right plays, especially in the critical points of the game.

Another thing here is rest. This is Oakland's third straight true road games since last Monday. Western Michigan on the other hand has had the luxury of not playing since last Tuesday. Broncos are 48-27 (64%) ATS in their last 75 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have also covered 6 of their last 7 vs a team from the Horizon. Take Western Michigan! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on George Mason -8½ -109

I got no problem backing the Patriots at home against Jacksonville State. George Mason is off to an impressive 8-1 start with their only setback coming in a true road game at Maryland.

That loss to the Terps seemed to light a fire under this team as they went out and won 3 games in 3 days to secure the title at the Cayman Islands Classic last week. The Patriots will certainly looked to carry over that momentum here. 

George Mason has one of the best players you probably haven't heard of in junior forward A.J. Wilson. He's nearly averaging a double-double with 12.4 ppg and 9.7 rpg. He's also been a force inside averaging 3.8 blocks. He's anchoring a Patriots defense that has held opponents to 39.2% shooting from the field on the season. 

The Gamecocks are just 2-4 and those two wins have come against Brecia, who has no business being on the floor with a D1 school, and Chicago State, who they were favored by 20 against (only won by 9). I just don't see them keeping this within single-digits. Take George Mason! 

4* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +10 -110

I really like the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Pacers. I just think Indiana is getting way too much love from the books in this spot. Not a big surprise given the Pacers have gone 12-4 in their last 16. 

I just think it's asking a little too much for Indiana to be favored by this much given they will be playing their 2nd straight on the road, as well as their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Memphis snapped a 6-game skid with a 115-107 upset win as a 12-point dog at Minnesota yesterday and despite their struggles to win games have gone a profitable 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. 

Pacers are just 8-18 ATS last 26 on the road after playing their previous game on the road and 3-15 ATS last 18 on the road after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS last 17 when revenging a same season loss. Take Memphis! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -1½ -109

The Bonnies are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em against the Owls in their final round matchup of the Boca Raton Beach Classic. FAU is lucky to even be in this game, as they barely squeaked by Illinois-Chicago 71-70 on Sunday. The Owls shot just 42% from the field and turned it over 20 times. 

FAU has also been overvalued on a consistent basis by the books to start out the season. Owls are just 1-5 ATS and are failing to cover by 3.5 points/game. Also, you can just look at how bad they were in their against their two toughest opponents, losing by 14 at Miami and by 19 at Alabama. 

Bonnies have won 3 of 4 since starting out 0-3 and to no surprise the turnaround has come with the recent additions of Osun Osunniyi and Jaren English to the rotation. Both were instrumental in their win yesterday over San Diego. Osunniyi had 15 points and 10 boards, while English had 2 points to go with 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. 

Owls are just 5-14 ATS last 19 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take St. Bonaventure! 

3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Suns -4½ -110

I really like the value here with the Suns, as I feel like this is the perfect spot to jump on them. Phoenix comes in having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. A big reason for their struggles is they had some key guys out. They have recently got them back and I look for them to get back to their early season form that saw them open the season 7-4. 

Charlotte is the perfect team to get right against. The Hornets are one of the last talented teams in the league and are just 4-10 in their last 14. Three of those four wins have come against a bad Pistons team and the other against an awful Knicks team. Each of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits. Look for the Suns to make easy work of the Hornets tonight. Take Phoenix! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Furman -3½ -109

A lot of people will be wondering why Furman, a team out of the Southern Conference is laying points on the road against a Bulls team that won 24-games last year and is expected to compete for a AAC title. I believe it's for good reason. 

The Paladins are off to a strong 7-1 start to the season with their only setback being a 8-point loss against a good Alabama team. There's a lot to like with Furman in this matchup. While the Paladins turned it over 17 times last time out against Arlington, that was an outlier for this team. They only had 30 turnovers in their last 3 games combined. 

USF is a team that really relies on forcing turnovers, so that's not a good sign for them. Bulls are also awful at taking care of the ball. They have turned it over 15 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. USF has also not been great at defending the rim and this Paladins team ranks 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage. 

Paladins are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games as favorite, while USF is a mere 4-14 ATS last 18 at home off a loss. Take Furman! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on St Bonaventure -2 -109

I really like the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number against the Toreros in Sunday's opening round action at the Boca Raton Beach Classic. St Bonaventure is just 2-4, but have been playing short handed early on.

They just recently added both big man Osun Osunniyi and guard Jaren English to the rotation. Both have made big impacts already and I think this team is going to have no problem here against San Diego. Toreros are just 3-5 and simply should be a much bigger dog in this fight. 

Bonnies are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games. San Diego is a miserable 7-18-1 last 26 vs a team with a losing record. Take St Bonaventure! 

3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Mavs +7 -110

I just think we are getting too good a price here with the Mavs because of the Lakers coming in having won 10 straight. Dallas isn't quite on that level, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. Their only loss coming against the Clippers, who are a really tough matchup for them with all the elite defenders they can throw at Luka Doncic. 

Lakers are a good defensive team, but I don't think they got anyone that can shutdown Doncic and there's going to be a game here soon where LA lays an egg and this winning streak comes to an end. I really think the Mavs could pull off the upset here. Either way, they should keep it close. Despite all the wins LA is racking up, they are just 2-4 ATS last 6 games. Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7. 

Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 road games and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Lakers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Loyola Marymount +2 -109

The Lions are worth a look here as a home dog against the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah should not be favored in this matchup. Loyola is just 2-4, but have played a pretty tough schedule as they have been a dog in every game this season with a line posted. 

I just don't like the matchup here for the Thunderbirds. You have to be able to shoot the 3-ball well against this zone defense of Loyola-Marymount that just isn't going to let you get easy looks inside. That's a problem for a Southern Utah offense that relies heavily on dribble penetration. Thunderbirds only average 6 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting just 31% from deep. Note it's much worse on the road, where they only average 4 made 3-pointers and are shooting 22%. 

Turnovers also figure to play a big factor in this outcome. Lions take really good care of the ball, while Southern Utah is one of the worst in the country at giving up the rock.  

Lions are 8-0 ATS last 8 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and the Thunderbirds are 0-7 ATS last 7 on the road after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Loyola-Marymount! 

3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Knicks +8 -115

I really like the value here with New York as a near double-digit home dog against the Celtics. No question Boston is the better team, I just think the Celtics are ready to get this game over with and head back home after a hectic last few days that has seen them host the Nets on Wednesday, travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets Friday and then stay in New York Saturday for this one. 

Boston isn't exactly playing their best basketball right now either, as they have lost 4 of their last 7. Knicks have lost 5 straight, but are a very respectable 4-3-1 ATS last 8 games. While the Celtics could struggle to get up for this one, New York figures to give a big effort as they haven't forgot about the ugly 118-95 home loss they suffered at the hands of Boston earlier this season. 

Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of December, who have lost 4 or more games in a row are a dominant 43-15 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110

I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years. 

Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close.

Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia! 

4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay +6 -115

I like the value here with the Phoenix as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. Green Bay is just 2-4, while Montana State is 5-2, but the Phoenix have played the much tougher schedule. Three of their four losses are true road games against the likes of Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. 

Green Bay does come in off an ugly 99-81 loss to Colgate, but are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU Loss. The Phoenix are also 6-1 ATS last 7 times they have played a team from the Big Sky Conference. Bobcats are off a 82-46 blowout win over Colorado Christian, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win by more than 20 and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay! 

3* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/76ers over 206 -109

The books have completely missed the mark with Saturday's NBA total between the Pacers and 76ers. I get these are two strong defensive teams, but Philadelphia is scoring 108.3 ppg and Indiana is even better at 109.3 ppg. Pacers are also red-hot on the offensive side of the ball right now, as they are scoring 115.6 ppg in their last 5. 

76ers don't figure to be at their best defensively in this one, as they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. Same thing with the Pacers defense, as Indiana is also in the second game of a back-to-back. 

OVER is 5-1-1 in the Pacers last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and 4-1 in the 76ers last 5 on no rest. OVER is laos 6-1 in Philadelphia's last 7 when their starters combine for 160 minutes in the previous day and 6-2-1 in Indiana's last 9 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Denver +1 -104

I like the value here with the Pioneers in their matchup against SE Missouri State. My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored in this one. The Redhawks are just 2-4 and their only two wins are against Missouri S&T and IUPU-Ft Wayne. Both wins coming by a mere 1-point. 

SE Missouri State comes in off a cover in a 75-87 loss as a 14-point dog to Santa Clara, but are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they enter off a cover. They are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take Denver! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on James Madison -1½ -109

The Dukes are worth a look as a small home favorite against the Pirates. I'm just not a fan of this East Carolina team and how they play. The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they come in shooting just 23.7% from deep and are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers a game. 

ECU is only shooting 41% from the field in all and really need to get to the foul line to score and that's a big problem here. James Madison doesn't foul. Their opponents average just 13 free throw attempts per game. On the flip side, ECU fouls like crazy, so there's going to be a major discrepancy at both the 3-point and foul line, two major obstacles to overcome. 

ECU is just 12-23 ATS last 35 vs a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take James Madison! 

4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS MASSACRE on NC-Greensboro +7 -115

UNC Greensboro is worth a look here as dog against the Hoyas on Saturday. This might seem like a small number for Georgetown to be laying against a team from the Southern Conference, but I really like this Spartans team. Their only two setbacks are a 1-point loss to Montana State and a mere 12-point setback at Kansas. 

One key area that should give Greensboro a shot at pulling off the upset is turnovers. The Spartans are one of the best in the country at putting pressure on their opponents, as they come in 10th in the nation forcing turnovers on more than 1/4 (26.5%) of their opponents possessions. Georgetown does not take good care of the ball, as rank 278th with a turnover rate of 22.2%. 

Hoyas are also just 8-19 ATS last 3 seasons as a home favorite and a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference home games. Take UNC Greensboro! 

4* NBA - Late Night TOTAL BAILOUT  on Wizards/Lakers under 235 -105

UNDER is definitely worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Wizards. While LA has seemed to figure out the offense here i n the last couple of weeks, I just feel the number is way too high for the spot. 

I just don't see the Lakers looking to push the pace at all in this one. They just finished up a 4-game road trip that spanned just 6 days and they just last played in New Orleans on Wednesday. If LA wants to play slow, they are good enough to dictate the tempo to their liking. 

Wizards are a team that likes to play fast, but they too figure to be a little slower than normal. Washington is playing it's 3rd straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. 

UNDER is 15-5 in Lakers last 20 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 24-9 in their last 33 after scoring 105 or more in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 17-7 in their last 24 at home vs a team with a losing record and 18-5 in their last 23 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on San Diego State -2 -104

I really like the spot and price we are getting with the Aztecs as a short favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in off a huge upset of No. 12 Texas Tech, as they downed the Red Raiders 72-61 as a 7.5-point underdog.

Give the Hawks credit, but I think that was more of Texas Tech beating themselves than anything. Red Raiders shot just 32.8% from the field and were a dreadful 4-24 (17%) from long distance. That's the same Iowa defense that gave up 93 points on 61% shooting at home to DePaul earlier this season. 

As for San Diego State, I think the Aztecs are a flying a bit under the radar, as this is a Top 25 team in my eyes. SDST improved to 7-0 with a emphatic 83-52 win over Creighton yesterday. They are giving up 55.4 ppg on just 36% shooting and holding teams almost 15 points under their scoring average. Iowa's offense is going to struggle and the defense is poised to regress. Take San Diego State! 

4* NBA - No Doubt Oddsmakers ERROR on Raptors -3½ -110

Easy play here with Toronto laying a short number at Orlando on Friday. The Raptors have already had their way with the Magic twice this season. They won by 9 at home on Oct. 28 and then by 16 in the rematch on Nov. 20. While both of those were played in Toronto, I don't think being at home will be enough for Orlando to change the script. 

Big reason for that is the Magic are still missing two of their best players as Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic both remain sidelined with ankle injuries. Not to mention Orlando has just not showed up against the better team. Raptors are way better than just about anyone anticipated after losing Kawhi Leonard. They have won 5 straight and are 13-4 overall. 

Road favorites (TORONTO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 69-35 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Toronto! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB /Kentucky under 130 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER in this one. While UAB has little to no shot of winning this game, I think the Blazers are good enough defensively to hold their own against an injury plagued Kentucky team to keep this UNDER the mark. 

UAB's defense is the main reason they are off to a strong 4-1 start. Blazers only average 64.0 ppg, but are holding teams to just 58.4 ppg. While the strong defensive play has come against some weak competition, they are holding teams a full 8-points under their scoring average. 

Kentucky's defense has been outstanding, as they are allowing just 61.7 ppg and holding teams almost 12 points under their average. I could easily see the Blazers failing to score more than 50 and I just don't see Kentucky's offense going off for 80+ in this one. 

UNDER is 10-2 in UAB's last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 10-2 in Kentucky's last 12 non-conference, 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 20+ and 13-3-1 in their last 17 vs a team from C-USA. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on SIU-Edwardsville +12½ -110

SIU-Edwardsville is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Highlanders. UC-Riverside comes in off 3 straight wins, but it's nothing to get overly excited about. The wins were against the likes of Longwood, Denver and Redlands. I just think it has them way overvalued, as they got no business laying this kind of number. 

The Cougars are just 2-5, but have played the much tougher schedule. They failed to cover in their last game at Pacific, but that's almost better for us here, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Riverside is just 6-17 ATS last 23 off a win, 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a favorite of 10 or more. Take SIU-Edwardsville! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Gonzaga -3 -109

I just really like this Gonzaga team and feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Bulldogs. Michigan has impressed early on and are off that big upset over No. 6 UNC on Thanksgiving Day. 

Not to take anything away from the Wolverines, but they simply couldn't miss. Michigan shot 50% from the field and 42% from deep. It's hard to stack those kinds of games on top of each other, especially against elite competition.

Gonzaga is every bit as good as they have been in the past few years and I think it says a lot about this team being able to beat a really good Oregon team, despite an off night shooting. Bulldogs hit just 39% from the field and 32% from deep. 

Wolverines are just 1-8 last 9 times they come into a game having covered 4 of their last 5. Underdogs in November who are shooting 52% or better from the field are also a mere 16-41 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Gonzaga! 

4* NBA - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Nets under 216½ -109

I really like the value here with the UNDER 216.5 in Friday's early NBA action between the Celtics and Nets. This is a far cry from what NBA players are use to in terms of start time for a game and I just think when you have games this early, especially on Friday, it's hard for players to get up for the game and play at their normal tempo. 

On top of that, these two teams just played Wednesday night in Boston, so both teams are going to be much better equipped for what the other wants to do offensively. UNDER is 15-5 in the Celtics last 20 division road games and 5-1 in the Nets last 6 overall. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCF +2½ -110

I'll take my chances here with the Knights in their opening round matchup against Penn in the Wooden Legacy out in Anaheim. UCF has started out 3-1 with their only loss coming to Miami. They responded to that setback with two impressive wins over Illinois State and Charleston. 

Penn comes in off a big upset win over Providence, but the Quakers have also lost to the likes of Rice and Lafayette by double-digits as favorites. Big thing for me is I don't think Penn will have much left in the tank for this tournament. Quakers have played 4 of their first 5 on the road. 

Knights are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 away from home in the month of November and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Quakers just 1-4 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. Take UCF! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Davidson +3½ -109

I love the value here with Davidson as a small dog against Marquette, as I think the Wildcats win this game outright. I know Davidson is just 2-3, but the schedule hasn't been easy. Marquette has a special player in Markus Howard, but I just like the overall talent with this Golden Eagles team. 

While this will be on a neutral site, Marquette did not fair well in their only other game away from home this season, losing by 16 as a mere 2-point dog to Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles let the Badgers connect on 11 3-pointers in that loss and Davidson is a team that can light it up from deep. Wildcats come in shooting 39% from deep and are averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game. 

Marquette is just 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Davidson! 

3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Pelicans +6½ -110

I like the value here with New Orleans as a decent home dog against the Lakers. Anytime LA is playing an inferior team you know the books are going to inflate the number and I think that's definitely the case here. 

Lakers got nothing to prove here. They come in having won 8 straight and 15 of 16 overall. With their next two at home and Thanksgiving tomorrow, I have a hard time believing they are all that interested in this one. Pelicans on the other hand are going to play their hearts out, especially with all the old Lakers that make up this New Orleans roster. 

Lakers are just 1-3 ATS over their last 4, which includes a mere 1-point win at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. I see this going very similar to that one. Take New Orleans! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -1½ -110

This one is pretty simple. When Dana Altman's Ducks are matched up against a ranked team, you back Oregon. The Ducks are a dominant 18-2-1 ATS since 2015 against ranked opponents. 

As good as Seton Hall has looked early on, I would argue that Oregon has looked even better. While Seton Hall has that close call at home against Michigan State, that's really the only tough matchup they have had. Ducks have beat the likes of Boise State, Memphis and Houston and the closest any team has got to beating them is 8-points. 

Ducks are also 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral site and a perfect 7-0 ATS when they come in having covered 4 or more in a row. Take Oregon! 

3* NBA - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Knicks +10½ -109

I really like the value here with New York getting double-digits against the Raptors. While these two teams are polar opposites in terms of their overall record, the Knicks have shown a lot of fight against some of the top teams.

They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and in their last road game against a good 76ers team that only lost by 5 as a 13-point dog. Knicks are 3-0 ATS this season when getting double-digits and 6-1 ATS when catching more than 7. 

Toronto comes in having won 4 straight going 3-1 ATS in this stretch. However, the Raptors are just 10-22 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of 4 and just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after 4 or more consecutive wins. Take New York! 

3* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Nets +7½ -105

This is too good a price here with Brooklyn catching a big number on the road against the Celtics. While the Nets will still be without Kyrie Irving, they haven't really missed him of late. Brooklyn comes in having won 4 straight. The Nets are also a strong 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games. 

No question Boston is the better team and this is probably one they had circled to start the year, as it would have been their first game against Irving since he left. I think with him being sidelined it takes away a lot of motivation for the Celtics and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them come out a bit sluggish. 

Boston is just 1-8-2 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a losing road record and just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 home games overall. Nets on the other hand are 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Brooklyn! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Niagara +9½ -109

The Purple Eagles are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Jaguars. Niagara is way undervalued here due to the fact that they have started out 0-4. Thing is 3 of those were true road games against better teams and they were also a dog in their lone home loss. 

IUPU-Ft Wayne is 3-5 and have two wins against non-D1 schools and the other was against an awful Stetson team. The Jaguars have no business laying double-digits in this game. They are just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record, while the Purple Eagles 12-3 ATS last 15 after 2 or more straight losses. Take Niagara! 

5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109

Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall. 

These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul. 

Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates. 

Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis! 

3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wizards/Nuggets over 226½ -110

I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action between Denver and Washington. The Nuggets have been great defensively over their recent 9-1 stretch, but I just don't think we are going to see a big effort on that side against a bad Wizards team, especially with the holiday's coming up and Denver getting a much-needed 3-day break after this game. 

Washington is also a team that just doesn't play any defense and if Denver gets up big they aren't going to keep trying on the defensive side of the ball. Wizards have allowed 113 or more points in 11 of their last 12 games, giving up 120 or more 7 times in this stretch. Only one of their last 6 games has seen a combined less than 243 points. 

OVER is 20-8 in the Wizards last 28 off a loss, 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 31-17 in their last 48 with a total set in the 220's. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dayton -1 -109

The Flyers are worth a look here as a pick'em against the Hokies on Tuesday. Most will be looking to take Virginia Tech here as they just knocked off No. 3 Michigan State last night 71-66 as a 13-point dog. Thing is, those big upset wins are often times the toughest to bounce back from. 

That win also keeps Dayton from potentially overlooking the Hokies, who honestly weren't expected to do a lot this season. Flyers had a pretty impressive win of their own yesterday, as they throttled Georgia 80-61 to improve to 4-0 and 3-1 ATS. 

One thing I really like about Dayton right now is they are red-hot from deep. They hit 10 3-pointers two games ago against Nebraska-Omaha and connected on 16 of 19 from long range against the Spartans. Flyers are 15-4 ATS last 19 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Take Dayton! 

4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Auburn -8 -109

Easy play here on Auburn laying single-digits against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is getting a little too much love here after yesterday's 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin. It's just not easy for these smaller teams to pull off back-to-back upsets, especially in a 2-day stretch. 

Auburn showed they were all business in this tournament, as they improved to 6-0 with a 84-59 blowout win over New Mexico as a 9-point favorite. Keep in mind not only are the Tigers more athletic and talented, they are a much deeper team. Richmond had 3 different guys play 34+ minutes in the win over Wisconsin (only one bench player recorded double-digit minutes). 

Tigers are now 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, 10-1 ATS last 11 tournament games and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. Take Auburn! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -5 -109

We are getting a great price here with the Badgers coming off yesterday's upset loss to Richmond. Wisconsin's defense did their part holding the Spiders to 62 points, but the offense just couldn't buy a basket, as they shot just 17-50 (34%) and were 7-27 (26%) from deep. 

While the Badgers offense is not going to be an offensive juggernaut, I would expect them to shoot the ball a lot better today. One big reason for that is they should get some nice looks off turnovers. New Mexico coughed up the rock 24 times in yesterday's 25-point loss to Auburn. 

With that loss the Lobos fell to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. New Mexico is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs a good defensive team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Wisconsin! 

5* NCAAB - Early Bird PLAY OF THE MONTH on Murray State -8 -110

Love the value here with the Racers laying single-digits against the Wildcats. Both teams lost their opening round game yesterday in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Weber State had no business being a 7.5-point favorite yesterday against Wright State and it showed, as they got blown out of the gym, losing 72-57. 

The Wildcats are now just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming against West Coast Baptist. In their other two games they lost 89-34 at Utah State as a 16.5-point dog and 71-56 as a 2-point home favorite against San Diego. 

I know Racers were upset yesterday by LaSalle, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Murray State is still 3-2 on the season with their only other loss being a true road game at Tennessee. Racers are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Take Murray State! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tenn-Martin +6 -110

I like the value here with the Skyhawks as a decently priced dog in Tuesday's opening round matchup in the Cancun Challenge. There's no reason for Gardner Webb to be laying this kind of number here. The Runnin' Bulldogs have started out 0-5 and while a lot of those have come on the road against Power 5 teams, they also lost at home to Furman. 

Another thing here is Gardner Webb has to be running on fumes, as they have played 4 straight on the road before making the trip to Cancun for this tournament. The most recent coming Friday at South Carolina. While Tenn-Martin has also played their last 3 on the road, they have been off since last Tuesday. 

Skyhawks are 8-1 ATS last 9 games vs a team that's been outscored by 4+ points/game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Tenn-Martin! 

3* NBA - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Spurs +5½ -110

No surprise here that we are getting value with San Antonio at home against the Lakers. The Spurs have to be one of the biggest disappointments this season, as they are just 6-11 and had lost 8 straight prior to beating the Knicks on Saturday. Lakers on the other hand are a massive public team and they come in having won 7 straight and 14 of 15. 

While LA is a profitable 9-7 ATS on the season, the books have made some adjustments of late and they have failed to cover 3 in a row. They are also just 3-4 ATS on the road compared to 6-3 ATS at home. Key here is the Lakers are playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days and they barely won last time out 109-108 at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. James and AD both played 35+ in their back-to-back games Friday/Saturday. 

I just don't think the Lakers are going to have the energy here to compete against a San Antonio team that is going to give it all they got. Spurs are 16-5 ATS last 21 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take San Antonio! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bradley -2 -104

The Braves are definitely worth a look here as a small favorite against the Wildcats. Bradley has won 4 straight since an opening night loss at St Joseph's, who has looked pretty good early on. These two have played 2 common opponents, Northwestern is just 1-1 with 0.0 scoring margin, while the Braves are 2-0 with a +10.5 ppg scoring margin. 

This is going to be a long season for the Wildcats, who lost their top 3 scores from a team that won just 13 games (4-16 Big Ten) and finished a pathetic 316th in scoring at 65.9 ppg. This is a very young team and will be going on the road for the first time after playing 4 straight at home. 

Bradley on the other hand has a lot coming back from a team that caught fire in the 2nd half of the season and wound up making the NCAA Tournament by winning the MVC Conference title. Braves will bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Bradley! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Green Bay -7½ -109

Easy play here with the Phoenix laying single digits against the Matadors. CS-Northridge has started out 0-6 with all 6 losses coming by double-digits. They have shown absolutely no ability to be competitive and it's resulted in a 1-5 ATS mark during their awful start. 

I expect it to continue here. Wisconsin-GB is just 1-3, but their 3 losses have all come on the road against quality teams in Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. They not only are the better team, but have a big edge here in rest, as CS-Northridge just played yesterday against Colgate, while the Phoenix are playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 13th. 

Struggling early is nothing new for the Matadors, as they are 22-47-3 ATS last 72 non-conference games. Phoenix on the other hand are a dominant 12-4 ATS last 16 off a loss and have covered 5 of 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay! 

4* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Kings/Celtics under 208½ -110

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup between Boston and Sacramento. These two teams met just 8 days ago in Sacramento and the Kings won that contest 100-99. Both defense played really well in that game and the pace was extremely slow. 

Playing slow is what the Kings want to do, as they 27th in the NBA in pace of play. I like them to dictate the tempo once again, as Boston is likely to be without starting point guard Kemba Walker. They are already down a big offensive weapon in Gordon Hayward and while Marcus Smart is going to play, he's at less than 100%. 

UNDER is 24-12 in Kings last 36 non-conference games, 16-6 in their last 22 vs a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 on the road. UNDER is also 12-3-1 in Boston's last 16 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days and 5-0 n their last 5 non-conference games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/Pistons under 206½ -110

Really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup that has the Magic visiting the Pistons. It's been a struggle on the offensive end for Orlando who are 29th in the league at just 102.1 ppg.

It's not going to get any better in the short-term, as the Magic will be without Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. Gordon is 4th on the team at 13.1 ppg and Vucevic is second at 17.1 ppg. These are Orlando's two best offensive rebounders. 

Magic also are the league's slowest team in pace of play and will have to rely even more on their defense and slow tempo to have any shot here. Detroit's offense isn't exactly clicking, as they have failed to top 90 in 2 of their last 3. The Pistons also rank in the bottom half of the league (21st) in pace of play. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Orlando's last 16 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 and 29-13 in their last 42 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. UNDER is 14-3 in Pistons last 17 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola Maryland -2 -109

The Greyhounds are worth a look here a small favorite against IUPUI in the first round of the Cayman Islands Mainland. Loyola-MD has covered 3 straight and are fresh off a mere 4-point loss at George Mason as a 8-point dog. They are just 2-3 overall, but have played 4 of 5 on the road. 

IUPUI has a big upset win at USF, but that's it. They also followed up that win over the Bulls with a 23-point loss at Loyola-Illinois. The Jaguars are just 1-3 ATS on the season. In the loss to the Ramblers they gave up 85 points and that's worth noting, as they are 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons after allowing 85 or more. 

Greyhounds are 19-7 ATS last 26 on the road after covering a game on the road where they lost outright. IUPUI is also a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been matched up against a team with a losing record. Take Loyola-MD! 

4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Hofstra -2 -109

I got no problem laying a short number here with the Pride at CS-Fullerton. Hofstra just went on the road an upset UCLA 88-78 as a 14.5-point dog on Thursday. That's a big time momentum boost for this team. It definitely makes the quick turnaround on the road a lot easier. 

I also think they could catch Fullerton a bit flat here. The Titans only game in the last 11 days is a home game against Stanislaus State. Their last game against a Div. 1 opponent was back on Nov. 13th. Not to mention this is a team that's picked to finish near the bottom of the Big West Conference. 

Pride are 21-7 ATS last 28 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 12-4 ATS last 16 non-conference games. Fullerton is just 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a road game. Take Hofstra! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -1½ -109

Definitely worth a look here on Ohio as a small home favorite. The Bobcats come in having lost 3 straight, but those 3 defeats have come against Villanova, Baylor and Utah. Prior to that they had won their first 3 games, which included upset road wins over St Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog and Iona as a 4.5-point dog. 

Ohio has shot the ball well at 45.3% and are averaging 9 made 3-pointers. Blue Raiders have really struggled with strong offense teams that can shoot from deep. Middle Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS last 15 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers and 3-12 ATS last 15 vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. 

Blue Raiders are just 9-18 ATS last 27 as a dog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Ohio! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Indiana State -2 -109

I like the value here with the Sycamores as a small favorite against the Falcons. Air Force comes in having lost 3 straight and have simply not shot shot the ball well. During the losing streak they have hit 42% or worse from the field in each game. They are also getting ominated on the board and losing the turnover battle. 

Indiana State is just 1-4, but they got their first win last time out against Loyola-Marymount, winning 72-60 as a slim the 3-point favorite. That's the same Loyola team that just a day earlier beat Air Force by 14. Falcons are just 2-7-1 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the Sycamores are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a team from the MWC. Take Indiana State! 

4* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Rockets under 231½ -109

Most are going to look to pound the OVER here, as you got a Mavs team coming off back-to-back 140+ point showings against a Rockets team that can score all kinds of points behind their dynamic duo of Westbrook and Harden. 

I just think it's a lot harder than people realize for these NBA players to get their minds right for these early start times on the weekend, especially Sunday. Add in both of these teams playing on limited rest and I think we get a lot lower scoring game than you would normally get with these two. 

UNDER is a strong 17-7 in the Rockets last 24 games with a total of 230 or more. It's also 35-19 in the Mavs last 54 after 2 straight where they shot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Coastal Carolina +6 -110

I like the value here with the Chanticleers as a decently priced dog against Mississippi State. I just feel Coastal Carolina will be the more motivated team here in the 3rd place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. It certainly helps the game is being played on their home court. 

Coastal Carolina has one of the better coaches not many people know about in Cliff Ellis and his Chanticleers have shown they can compete with the big boys in this tournament. They knocked Utah 79-57 before losing a closely contested game 77-65 to Baylor. 

Mississippi State is coming off a crushing loss to No. 17 Villanova, where they gave the Wildcats all they could handle. For a team that only plays 7 guys, I just think they are poised to come out a little flat here. Take Coastal Carolina! 

3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Blazers/Cavs over 223 -110

Easy play on the OVER in Saturday's NBA slate that has the Cavaliers hosting the Blazers. Defense is not a strength of either of these teams. Cleveland is giving up 112.1 ppg and Portland is allowing 116.7 ppg. Both teams are in much worse form than that of late, as the Cavs are giving up 122.8 ppg in their last 5 and the Blazers are allowing 122.4 ppg in their last 5. 

Blazers are one of the best pick and roll teams in the league and the Cvs are one of the worst defending it. Portland should be able to exploit this in a big way, especially with Damian Lillard expected back in the lineup after missing the Blazers last game. 

I wouldn't be shocked at all to see both teams score into the 120s and this thing fly past the number. OVER is 10-3-1 in Portland's last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-3 in the Cavs last 16 off a loss by more than 10. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA - Situational ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Grizzlies +7½ -115

I really like the spot and the price we are getting with Memphis as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers on Saturday. No question LA is the better team, but this is all about motivation and rest.

We know we are going to get a max effort here from the Grizzlies against a top tier team at home like the Lakers. Especially given that Memphis is playing this game on a full 3-days of rest. The same can't be said for the Lakers, who are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an up-and-down fast paced game against the Thunder last night that ended in a 130-127 win.

Both LeBron and AD played 35+ minutes in that win. I could see the Lakers resting one or both of those guys or at least limiting their minutes. Lakers are also a mere 9-19 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as a mid-range favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Memphis! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacific +4 -109

I like the value here with Damon Stoudamire's Tigers getting points at home against the Broncos. Boise State comes in off a thrilling an emotional 72-68 OT win at home over BYU and I think it has the Broncos primed for a letdown on the road against a hungry and what looks to be an improved Pacific team. 

Keep in mind Boise State did not play well at all in their first road game, getting annihilated by Oregon 106-75 as a mere 10.5-point dog. Last time out the Tigers won won 64-60 at home against Coppin State, but failed to cover as a 13-point favorite. That's actually a positive here, as they are a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. 

Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and a mere 8-21-1 ATS last 30 vs a team that simply has a winning record. Take Pacific! 

4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Denver +7 -109

Really like the value here with the Pioneers getting what I feel is a big number against UC-Riverside. I get Denver hasn't looked great in their first two road games, but that was against much better competition. The Anteaters aren't just a team they can keep it close against, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. 

UC-Riverside just isn't good enough on the offensive end to be laying this many points against a similarly skilled opponent. The Anteaters are only averaging 60.0 ppg and that's with a 76-point outburst in their last game against non-D1 foe Redlands. 

Coming off a win is also a good time to fade Riverside, as they are just 3-14 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 1-9 ATS last 10 after holding their previous opponent to 60 or fewer points (held Redlands to 44). Take Denver! 

4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Rider PK -109

The Broncs are worth a look here as a pick'em on the road against the Lions. I get Columbia's 1-4 start can be attributed to playing 4 of their first 5 on the road, but their lone win was a mere 12-point victory at home against Binghamton, who is one of the worst teams in the America East Conference. 

Rider's last two have come as dogs against a couple of decent teams in Arizona State and UMass. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are a strong 30-8 ATS in their last 38 after playing 2 straight as a dog. 

There's also a strong system in play favoring the Broncs. Underdogs that are an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games are 31-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Rider! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Elon +1½ -110

The Fighting Phoenix are definitely worth a look as a home dog against Manhattan on Saturday. Elon comes in having lost 3 straight, but all 3 were on the road against Power 5 teams. They didn't sniff a win in any of those games, but did cover the number in all 3 matchups. 

The Jaspers haven't looked like a team that many thought would contend for the MAAC title. They only won by 11 at home in their opener against Delaware State and last time out fell 57-70 at Samford, who is a middle of the pack team in the Southern Conference. 

Manhattan is also a team that relies a lot on turnovers, as they don't shoot the ball well (37.9% from the field on the season). That's a problem against the Fighting Phoenix, who rank inside the Top 20 in the country in offensive turnover rate, giving up the rock just 14.5% of their possessions. A really remarkable stat given their last 3 games were against Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. Take Elon! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4 -105

I really like the value here with Memphis laying a short number against the Rebels at home. I think we are getting value with the Tigers because of the recent suspension handed to star freshmen big man James Wiseman and the fact that they only beat Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 as a 16.5-point favorite last time out. 

I just don't think that was a focused Memphis team in that recent victory over the Trojans. Which says a lot that they were still able to win by double-digits. Keep in mind the news of Wiseman's suspension came just hours before the game. I expect a much more focused Tigers team on Saturday. 

As for Ole Miss, they are 4-0, but that was to be expected given their cupcake schedule to start the season. Rebels 4 wins are against Arkansas State, Norfolk State, Western Michigan and Seattle. All teams they were favored by at least 18.5 points against. This is a massive step up in competition and it's their first true road game of the season. Take Memphis! 

5* NCAAB - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +10½ -109

I love the value here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. USC has got off to a strong start with a 5-0 record in their first 5 games, but they won by 7 at home against Pepperdine last time out and also only beat Portland at home by 11. 

Owls have also not lost with a 3-0 record, but they are 0-3 ATS and I think we are getting value because of their poor showing against the number. It's not like they haven't been close to covering. They won by 8 as a 12-point favorite against Drexel, by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite against Morgant St and by 5 as a 6-point favorite at LaSalle. 

I think the Owls have a decent edge here being the fresher team having played 3 games to USC's 5 and the fact that they are playing this game on 5 days rest, while the Trojans are on just 2 days of rest. 

Owls are 40-23 ATS last 63 on the road off a no-cover where they won as a favorite. Take Temple! 

5* NBA - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Clippers under 228 -109

This number doesn't make any sense to me. I just don't see these two teams coming close to 230 points. Houston is a tired team. They will be playing their 5th game in 7 days. Playing their 4th game in 6 days they managed just 95 points and shot just 42% from the field on Wednesday at Denver. 

Now they face a Clippers team that I believe can be the best in the league when they want to be on the defensive side of the ball. I fully expect a max effort on that side of the ball from LA at home against Harden and Westbrook. They definitely got the guys to slow those two down. 

Houston's offense gets a lot of praise, but they better defensively than they get credit for. Clippers offense only scored 90 on 40% shooting against the Thunder on Monday and then had 107 (in OT) on 42% shooting against the Celtics. 

UNDER is 16-4 in the Rockets last 20 road games as a dog of 6 or less and 19-5 in their last 24 on the road after going under in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Houston +8 -109

No question the Ducks should be favored at home, but this is just too many points for the Cougars to be catching in this one. Houston is simply undervalued here after failing to cover their last two games, where they lost by 1 as a 11.5-point home favorite to BYU and only beat Rice by 9 as a 13-point favorite. 

Oregon on the other hand is overvalued after covering 3 straight. The Ducks are just 16-26 ATS last 42 at home against top tier teams that come in shooting 45% or better from the field while holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. 

Cougars are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games, 11-3 ATS last 14 off a game where they won but didn't cover as a favorite and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Houston! 

4* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat/Bulls under 216½ -105

The UNDER is worth a look here in Friday's NBA matchup between Chicago and Miami. This just feels like to big a number when you got a decent Heat defense that's facing a Bulls offense that is having a miserable time shooting well from the field. Chicago has shot 43% or worse in 4 straight games and will be facing a Heat defense that has only allowed a team to shoot better than 45% once all season. 

Miami has also slowed the pace considerably of late and we have seen the UNDER cash in 7 of their last 10 games. UNDER has cashed in each of the Bulls last two and they are off one of their best defensive showings of the season on Wednesday, as they held the Pistons to just 89 points on 34% shooting. 

UNDER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 27-11-1 in the Bulls last 39 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -5 -109

Easy play here on the Bulls laying what I feel is a really short number against the Tigers. Both teams played and lost in the opening round of the Charleston Classic. Buffalo had the much better showing losing by just 11 to UConn, while Townson got annihilated by 22 against Xavier. Bulls only trailed by 6 with just over 2 minutes to play. 

Buffalo is considered by many the favorite to win the MAC this year, while Towson is a middle of the pack team in the Colonial. Even though the Bulls didn't cover as a 2.5-point dog against the Huskies, they are still 21-8-2 ATS last 31 on a neutral site. 

Towson is just 6-15 ATS last 23 when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are also 6-15 ATS last 21 on the road after failing to cover and 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road when they come in having failed to cover 2 of 3. Take Buffalo! 

4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Maryland-Baltimore County PK -110

I like the value here with UMBC this afternoon in opening round action in the Jamaica Classic. The Retrievers will forever be remembered as the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and UMBC has the looks of a team that could get back to the big dance by winning the America East this year. 

Whether or not that happens, I really like them to take down Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have started out 4-0, but three of their games were so lopsided they didn't even have lines. They did upset North Texas on the road as a 9-point dog, but that Mean Green team is picked to finish near the bottom of the AAC this year. 

Prior to covering against North Texas, Eastern Michigan was working on a 1-9 ATS run in non-conference games. Retrievers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on a neutral site and 8-1 ATS last 9 in tournament games. Take UMBC! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland State +7 -105

I'll take the points with the Vikings in this matchup of two small conference bottom feeders. Cleveland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Horizon, while UNC-Wilmington is picked to finish near the basement of the Colonial. 

The value with the Vikings in this one stems from their 1-4 start to the season, but it's really not that surprising to see Cleveland State sitting where they are. The schedule has been brutal, as their 4 losses are road games against Minnesota, Missouri State and South Carolina and a home loss to a really good FIU team. 

Not only should facing a similarly skilled opponent help the Vikings, but they are a team that likes to play fast. That's evident by their 11-3 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons in games against up-tempo teams that average 62+ shots/game. Seahawks are just 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat NC Wesleyan 113-53 last time out). Take Cleveland State! 

5* NBA - TNT PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns -3½ -110

Love the value here with Phoenix as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. I get New Orleans has won two straight, but let's not get carried away. Those two wins were both at home against a couple of struggling teams in the Warriors and Blazers. New Orleans is still just 5-9 overall and are 1-5 on the road, where they are giving up a ridiculous 120.8 ppg. 

Phoenix has lost 3 of 4 and will be without their two big free agent pickups in Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes, but they still got more than enough talent to beat the Pelicans by 4 at home.

Keep in mind that two of their 3 losses in their last 4 were home games against two of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and Celtics. The other a mere 4-point loss against a red-hot Sacramento team. Take Phoenix! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on California +20½ -110

I really like the value here with Cal as a massive road dog against Duke in the opening round of Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden. You just know that with how much the public loves to back the Blue Devils the line is inflated. 

After covering their first 3, Duke was a 28.5-point favorite at home against Georgia State and wound up only winning by 11. I'm not saying the Golden Bears got a shot at pulling off the upset, but I fully expect them to make a game of it. 

Blue Devils are a team that loves to get out in transition, while Cal is a team that wants to make you play in the halfcourt. I think they can keep Duke from running and really force them to work offensively, which should allow them to keep it close. 

Golden Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off 3 or more straight home wins, while Duke is just 2-11 ATS last 13 vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Cal! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Towson +9½ -109

I really like the value here with the Tigers as a near double-digit dog against the Musketeers. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start and to no surprise as a lot of people are expecting a big bounce back season after last year struggles. 

However, the books were well aware the public was going to be on the Musketeers and have overpriced them. Xavier has failed to cover in all 4 wins and I expect that trend to continue tonight. 

This Towson team is also no joke. The Tigers only lost by 6 last time out as a 18-point road dog against a really talented Florida team. With that cover they are now 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Towson! 

4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa -14½ -113

I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in a win and cover at home against North Florida. I was impressed with how Iowa bounced back from that ugly home loss to DePaul with a win and cover against Oral Roberts. 

The Ospreys have won 4 straight, but it's come against some bad competition. The only real quality opponent they have faced is Florida on the road and they lost by 15. Keep in mind the Gators really haven't looked good early on, so it's not really asking much for Iowa to win by that same amount. 

Hawkeyes are a solid 31-17 in their last 48 at home vs a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games and 8-0 ATS at home vs teams like North Florida that like to play at a fast pace an average 62+ shots/game. Take Iowa! 

4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Loyola Marymount +3½ -110

I'm confident the Lions will cash in a cover here as a small dog against Air Force, as these two face off in the opening round of the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas. The Falcons come in off a close loss at TCU, where they were right there with a chance to win late and easily covered as a 16-point dog. It was Air Force's third straight cover and I think it has them getting a little too much love in this spot. 

The Falcons just played that game at TCU on Monday and have not played at home since Nov. 9th. Loyola is going to be the much fresher team in this one. They have been at home since Nov. 9th and haven't played since Saturday. 

Air Force is just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 on the road after covering 3 of their last 4 and a mere 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road off a cover in a straight up loss as a dog. Lions are 21-10 ATS last 31 in non-conference road games. Take Loyola-Marymount! 

4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State +1 -105

I love this spot and price with the Broncos at basically a pick'em at home against the Cougars. BYU comes into this game off a thrilling 72-71 win at Houston as a 11.5-point underdog, but I think it has them overvalued. Prior to beating Houston they only beat Southern Utah by 5 as a 11.5-point dog and lost by 5 at home to San Diego State as a 4-point favorite. 

Boise State comes in just 1-2 and off two straight losses, but one of those was at Oregon, who looks like a legit Pac-12 contender and the other was to UC-Irvine, the favorites to win the Big West. I think we get a really big effort here from the Broncos on 4 days rest, while BYU could be a bit sluggish off the big upset win. 

Offense has not been a problem for Boise, who is averaging 87 ppg and shooting 47% from the field. That's worth noting as the Cougars are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Boise State! 

4* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Rockets +2 -109

I get this isn't the best scheduling spot for Houston, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, but I just think the books have factored that into the number and the value is with the Rockets as an underdog. 

Houston comes in having won and covered 8 in a row. The concerns of how Russell Westbrook and James Harden could go exist can be thrown out the window. Harden has to be the MVP frontrunner right now, as he's averaging 39.2 ppg to go with 7.6 apg and 5.7 rpg. As for Westbrook, he's doing just fine at 21.6 ppg, 7.1 apg and 8.4 rpg. I just see no reason to back off this team with how they are playing right now. 

Denver is also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104

Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West. 

UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis! 

3* NBA - Raptors/Magic ATS WINNER on Magic +4 -115

I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. 

I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. 

Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. 

As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. 

Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! 

3* NBA - Raptors/Magic TOTAL WINNER on Magic/Raptors under 208 -115

I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. 

I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. 

Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. 

As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. 

Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Siena +5½ -110

The Saints are worth a look here as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Siena has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS to start out the season and have done so against some decent competition. Last time out the Saints nearly upset the Ivy League favorites on the road, as they fell 56-59 at Harvard, easily covering as a 10.5-point dog. 

Now they face another Ivy team in Yale, who has lost two straight and really struggling to get their offense going. In their 3 games against Div. 1 opponents the Bulldogs have shot 39% or worse from the field. That's a big concern, as Siena has been rock solid on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have held Harvard to 40% shooting, St. Bonaventure to 38% and Xavier to 43%. 

Not a big surprise to see Yale struggle, as they lost 3 starters, including their best player in Miye Oni. Siena will have the best player on the floor in this one in sophomore point guard Jalen Pickett. Last year Pickett had to basically do it all on his own as a freshmen. This year he's got some help. Mount St. Mary's transfer Donald Carey is putting in 16 ppg and Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is at 15.5 ppg. Take Siena! 

3* NBA - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Suns +3 -109

I actually think we are getting some decent value here with Phoenix due to the Suns playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and having just got annihilated by the Celtics last night 99-85 at home.

Thing is, Phoenix had 3 days off before playing Boston, so the back-to-back isn't a as big a deal. Suns are also a team that has been very profitable in this spot, going 9-4 ATS last 13 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season, covering by almost 11 points/game. 

These two already played once this season and the Suns won 124-95. Phoenix did as they pleased, shooting 50% from the field and racking up 31 assists. That result combined with the Kings off a 100-99 win at home over the Celtics adds even more value. 

Home teams revening a road loss of 20 or more and are coming off a home win by 3 or less are a mere 21-54 (28%) ATS since 1996. Take Phoenix! 

3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +1 -110

I believe the fact that UTEP has started out 3-0 has the Miners getting way to much respect here at home against the Lobos. I would definitely have New Mexico favored in this one.

Thanks to a lot of transfer additions, the Lobos have one of the most talented teams in the MWC this year and they have lived up to the hype early on with a 4-0 start, all 4 wins coming by double-digits. 

UTEP simply hasn't played anyone. Their 3 wins are against the likes of New Mexico Highlands, New Mexico State and East New Mexico. That's two of three games against non-D1 competition. They should be averaging a lot more than 76.3 ppg.

I just don't see them keeping pace with New Mexico, who averages 93.0 ppg on 54% shooting. Lobos are simply the more talented team and it wouldn't shocked me if they made it 5 straight wins by double-digits. Take New Mexico! 

4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +26 -105

I think we are getting a great price here with the Stags as a massive road dog against the No. 7 ranked Terps. Maryland hasn't had to sweat anything early on and I just think they are going to have a hard time giving a pretty mediocre Fairfield team their full attention. 

Terps have covered their last two, beating Rhode Island by 18 as a 12-point favorite and Oakland by 30 as a 18.5-point favorite. This will be the most they have been asked to lay since they were a 28.5-point favorite in their opener against Holy Cross, a game in which they failed to cover. 

Stags are just 1-3 SU, but are 3-1 ATS and could easily be 4-0 both SU and ATS. They have two losses by 4-points or less and 9-point loss in OT, which was the only game they failed to cover as a 5-point dog. Fairfield has 3 double-digit scorer, led by Jesus Cruz's 19.5 ppg. Even if this gets ugly early, they should be able to climb through the backdoor and cash a winner. Take Fairfield! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +5 -105

I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Bulldogs. Manhattan is off to a strong 2-0 start and just won outright as a home dog against Albany in their last game. Jaspers won that game holding the Great Danes to just 28.3% shooting. 

Manhattan should be greatly improved over the 11-win team from last year, as they brought back 85.3% of their minutes and 10 different guys who started at least 1 game. One thing that killed last year was turnovers and that was a direct result of their lack of experience at the guard position. 

More than anything, I think this Jaspers defense is built to win on the road with how they defend the ball. The offense hasn't been great, but they are due to shoot the ball well. Samford's defense isn't great and have already allowed 90+ on two occasions. 

Samford likes to play fast and that's another plus for Manhattan. Jaspers are 42-20 ATS last 62 vs up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots/game. Jaspers are also 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 55 or less and 20-8 last 28 after a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Take Manhattan! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on College of Charleston PK -104

Marshall is a team I feel is worth fading early on. Thundering Herd won 23 games last year and did so averaging an impressive 80.5 ppg (28th in the country). They just don't have the offensive fire-power this year having lost two prolific scorers in Jon Elmore (20.3 ppg) and C.J. Burks (17.7 ppg). 

Thru their first 3 games the Herd are averaging just 67 ppg with 70 being their highest output of the season. Marshall did cover last time out at Notre Dame as a 19-point dog, but they also failed to cover their first two against Robert Morris and Toledo, both at home. 

Charleston is the team to beat in the Colonial this year and are primed for a bounce back after an ugly game against Oklahoma State, where they couldn't make a thing (32.7%) and the Cowboys couldn't miss (51.9%). 

Marshall is just 3-12 ATS last 15 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. Cougars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from C-USA and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 in a row. Take Charleston! 

4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Mavs under 225 -109

This just feels like way too many points for this matchup. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. I know the Spurs have played some high scoring games of late, but only one time in the Mavs last 6 games have they finished with a combined score of 225 or more. 

Spurs offense is averaging a respectable 112.4 ppg, but a lot of that is them playing a lot of bad defenses. San Antonio's opponents on the season are giving up 111.7 ppg, so they are just barely eclipsing what their opponents allow. 

Another thing to note is that in the last 30 meetings between these two teams, they have not had a game hit 225 points. UNDER is also 27-14 in Dallas' last 41 vs a poor defensive team that is allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or more. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville +15½ -109

Big time value here with the Cougars as a big road dog against the Coyotes. South Dakota State has started out 4-0 with a 3-1 ATS mark. I feel it has them laying way too big a number here against a SIU Edwardsville team that has shown they can compete against some good teams. 

This reminds me a lot of South Dakota's home game against Florida A&M, where they were being asked to lay 17.5 and ended up squeaking out a 3-point victory. 

Cougars are an experienced team with 4 starters back and added twins Lamar and Shamar Wright, who's dad, Lorenzo Wright, played in the NBA. Those two should only get better the more they get into the flow of things. Overall SIU is a very balanced team with 6 different guys averaging 7 or more ppg. Take SIU Edwardsville!  

3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Knicks over 208½ -109

I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's NBA matchup of Eastern Conference bottom feeders, as the Knicks will play host to the Cavs. A lot of time when you get two bad teams against one another, you don't see a whole lot of effort on the defensive side and that's what I'm expecting here. 

Cavs defense has been slipping of late, as they have allowed 50% shooting in each of their last two games and 47% or better in 5 of their last 7. Knicks are giving up 109.2 ppg. 

OVER is 5-2 in Cleveland's last 7 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-3 in their last 13 off a game where they didn't cover. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee +3 -110

No way should the Blue Raiders be getting points here against the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has already dropped games at home to Campbell and Northern Kentucky. Middle Tennessee has started out 3-0, which includes a win at Lipscomb. 

I'm expecting big improvements out of the Blue Raiders in year two under head coach Nick McDevitt. He really turned UNC Asheville into a power and finished up 40-14 in his last 3 years. 

The Chanticleers most recent game was that home defeat to the Norsemen. Coastal Carolina is just 4-12 ATS last 16 off a home loss and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home overall. Blue Raiders have covered 5 of 7 against a team from the Sun Belt and are 9-3 ATS last 12 overall, including a 5-2 ATS mark in their last 7 on the road. Take Middle Tennessee! 

3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Magic under 223 -109

UNDER is worth a look here in Sunday's NBA matchup between Orlando and Washington. The Magic are just an ideal UNDER team, as they rank dead last in the league in pace of play (99.7). They are 28th in offensive efficiency (100.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.0). 

UNDER is 8-3-1 in Orlando's last 12 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 vs a bad team like the Wizards that has won less than 40% of their games. 

UNDER is 29-7 (81%) with a total of 220 to 229.5 when you have a road team off a win that's won between 25% to 40% of their games and facing another team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Charlotte +4 -110

I like the 49ers to cover the small number at home against the Demon Deacons. Everyone keeps waiting for Danny Manning to work his magic in Winston-Salem, but it's just not happening. Wake has won just 11-games each of the last two years, both times going a mere 4-14 in ACC play. 

They would of had a chance to be decent had freshmen Jaylen Hoard stuck around, but he left early for the NBA. I get Charlotte isn't the best program, but we saw the Demon Deacons already barely beat Columbia at home 65-63. 

Wake did win last time out against UNC-Asheville, but are just 5-13 ATS last 18 off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road. Take Charlotte! 

5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cavs +7 -105

Love the value here with the Cavs as a big home dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and have failed to cover 4 straight. 76ers are not a good road team and are playing their 3rd straight away from home. 

Cavs might be one of the least talented teams in the league, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. This team has been routinely undervalued by the books and that's evident by Cleveland's 6-3-2 ATS record. 

76ers are 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road against a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 on 2 days of rest. Take Cleveland! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Illinois State -1½ -110

I got no problem laying the short number at home with the RedBirds in Sunday's game against UCF. I just think the Knights are in some trouble this season. UCF had a dream season last year, winning 24-games and coming up just short of upsetting Duke and advancing to the Sweet 16. 

The Knights lost every key player from that team and it's going to be a struggle for them to come anywhere close to what they were. They just lost at home by 9 to Miami as a 3-point dog and I look for them to struggle in their first true road game of the season. 

Redbirds have thrived in this spot, going 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Illinois State! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Wisconsin -1 -105

The Badgers are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. Just feel like like Marquette is getting a little too much love here off a 10-point home win against Purdue. 

Golden Eagles had a chance to be special this year until Sam and Joey Hauser decided to transfer. Now it's just the Markus Howard show and while he's great, it's hard to be a one-man show and win on the road against a team like Wisconsin that really gets after you defensively. You can bet the Badgers are going to really focus on Howard and make the other guys beat them. 

Wisconsin comes in off a 83-63 blowout win at home over McNeese State and are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home off a home win by 20 or more points. Marquette on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take Wisconsin! 

3* NBA - Blazers/Spurs TOTAL WINNER on Blazers/Spurs under 228 -109

I just think the total here has been set way too high for this one. Portland was playing with some decent pace early on, but all the injuries have forced the Blazers to slow things down. Their pace of play rating was a respectable 105.1 in their first 8 games and is just 99.4 over their last 4. It's important to note the dip has come against teams that look to push the pace, which is a good sign the slow play will continue. 

Spurs defense hasn't been great, but their biggest weakness has been protecting the paint. Portland isn't really a team to take advantage of that, as they are 25th in the league in number of attempts per game within the restricted area. Look for this to stay well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Saturday Night CASH COW on Rutgers -7½ -105

The Scarlet Knights have started out 3-0 and I look for them to have no problem covering the number in Saturday's neutral site showdown with St. Bonaventure. Rutgers is a program on the rise and many fans are calling for their first winning season in over a decade. 

The Bonnies are off to a 0-3 start having lost at home to Ohio and Vermont and most recently losing at Siena as a 1-point favorite. Offense has been a big problem for St. Bonaventure. They are averaging just 59.0 ppg and have yet to shoot better than 38% from the field in any game. 

Now they must face a Rutgers defense that is only giving up 55.7 ppg, holding teams almost 15 points under their season average. St Bonaventure is 1-9 ATS last 10 games when facing a team that's holding teams under 42% shooting and the Scarlet Knights are 13-3 ATS last 16 away from home against teams who are averaging 64 or fewer points/game. Take Rutgers! 

3* NBA - Bucks/Pacers ATS WINNER on Bucks -6½ -110

I like Milwaukee to cash in a win and cover at Indiana on Saturday. I just feel like we are getting a decent price here with the Bucks coming in off 4 straight non-covers. Especially given that Milwaukee will be playing just their second game in 6 days, while the Pacers are in the second game of a back-to-back set after playing last night at Houston. 

Another thing to note with the Pacers is that while they are 7-2 in their last 9 games, a lot of those wins came against bad teams. In fact, Indiana has played the softest schedule of any team in the NBA so far. 

Bucks are 30-16 ATS last 46 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a dominant 17-4 ATS last 21 vs a division opponent with an average margin of victory of 13.6 ppg. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Louisiana Tech +10 -105

This is just too many points for Louisiana Tech to be catching on the road against the Blue Jays. The Bulldogs have started out 2-0 with two blowout wins. They won at Texas A&M CC 82-49 as a mere 8-point favorite and followed that up with a 98-52 victory against Wiley College. Note that Texas A&M CC nearly went on the road an upset Vanderbilt, losing by a final score of 71-66. 

As for Creighton, they are coming off a 79-69 loss at Michigan, where they let the Wolverines shoot 57% from the field and now face a LA Tech team that has hit 50% from the field in each of their first two games. I just don't see the Blue Jays being able to pull away and winning by double-digit. In fact, I give the Bulldogs a legit shot at winning this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech! 

4* NCAAB - E Michigan/N Texas ATS WINNER on Eastern Michigan +9 -110

The Eagles are worth a look as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Mean Green. Eastern Michigan hasn't played the stiffest of competition over their 3-0 start, but they have dominated all 3 games and will be playing with a ton of confidence in this one. 

North Texas is coming off two really tough road games, as they were at VCU last Friday (lost a heartbreaker 59-56) and at Arkansas on Tuesday (lost by 23). Both games the offense really struggled, as they shot just 40% against the Rams and 33% against the Razorbacks. 

Mean Green are just 19-35 ATS last 54 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 18-36 last 54 in non-conference home games and 5-16 ATS last 21 at home off a loss by 20 or more. Take Eastern Michigan! 

3* NCAAB - Austin Peay/Tulsa ATS WINNER on Austin Peay +9 -109

This is just too good a price to pass up with the Governors against the Golden Hurricane. Austin Peay comes in off a 22-point loss at Western Kentucky, but that's a really good Hilltoppers team who lost just 1 starter from a 20-win team and is expected to win C-USA this year. 

Tulsa has started out 2-1, but there two wins have come by single-digits against the likes of Houston Baptist and Oral Roberts. They also lost by 14 on the road to Texas Arlington. Golden Hurricanes have a history of exceeding expectations under Frank Haith, but I don't think that's going to be the case this year. Take Austin Peay! 

3* NCAAB - Belmont/Boston College ATS WINNER on Belmont +1½ -110

The Bruins are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Eagles. Boston College is getting a lot of love here after starting out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, but I think they are going down on Saturday. 

One key matchup here that I think really favors Belmont is big man Nick Muszynski going up against the Eagles Nic Popvic. Muszynski is averaging 17.5 ppg and 3 bpg. He's not only going to get his, but he should be able to contain Popvic, BC's second leading scorer. 

Bruins were red-hot from 3 last time out, going 16 of 38 (42%) against Samford. Belmont is 15-4 ATS last 19 after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers. Bruins are also a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons. Eagles just 1-8 ATS last 9 at home off a home game. Take Belmont! 

4* NCAAB - Temple/LaSalle ATS WINNER on Temple -4½ -110

I like the Owls to cash in a win and cover over LaSalle in Saturday's Big Five matchup. Temple has had a whole week to prepare for this one, as they haven't played since last Saturday's 18-point win over Morgan State. 

While Temple has had ample time to prepare for this rivalry matchup, the Explorers just played a Big 5 rival in Penn on Wednesday. That didn't go well, as they lost by 16 as a 8.5-point dog. 

Not real concerned with home court edge in this one. These two schools are a mere 3-miles apart on Broad Street. Expect plenty of Owls' fans in attendance. 

I also think turnovers will be a big factor here. Temple has forced 36 turnovers in their first two games, while LaSalle has coughed up the rock 34 times in their first two games. Take Temple! 

3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT  on Cal-Irvine +3 -110

The betting public can't get enough of the Broncos as a small home favorite against the Anteaters, but I really like Cal-Irvine to go into Boise and get a win, making them an easy play at this price. 

Boise went just 13-20 overall and 7-11 (T-7th) in the MWC last year, but because they bring back their top four scorers and add in a couple of Pac-12 transfers, people are expecting a big turnaround. I'm not convinced that will be the case. It certainly didn't look to be in their last game, when they lost by 31 on the road to Oregon as a 10.5-point dog. 

UC Irvine comes in averaging 82.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting, which is pretty remarkable when you factor they have shot a miserable 29% from behind the 3-point line. Good chance they get that going against a Broncos defense that is allowing their opponents to shoot 43.2% from deep against them on the season. The defense as a whole just isn't very good for the home team and it will cost them tonight. Take UC-Irvine! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Davis +5 -110

The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Red Wolves. I feel like we are getting a good price on UC-Davis in this one due to the fact that they have failed to cover each of their first two lined games. They also couldn't have played any worse than they did in their opener at Loyola when they got blasted 82-48 as a mere 13-point dog. 

Arkansas State did manage to cover in their last game at home against VMI as a 7-point favorite, but the Keydets are 0-4, so that's nothing to get excited about. Red Wolves also shot a ridiculous 58% from the field, which is not the norm for this team. They only managed 43 points on 33% shooting the game before against Ole Miss. 

Turnovers have been a problem for the Red Wolves. They are averaging 16 turnovers a game and will be facing a UC Davis defense that has forced an impressive 33 turnovers in their last 2 games. That's nothing new for the Aggies, as they have ranked in the top 40 nationally in defensive turnover rate the last two years. I'll take the points for insurance, but fully expect the Aggies to win outright. Take UC Davis! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Alabama +1 -110

I love the Crimson Tide at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rams. Alabama bounced back in a big way from their heartbreaking 1-point loss to Penn in their opener with a dominating 78-59 win at home over FAU, easily covering as a 12.5-point favorite. 

Rhode Island failed to cover as a big favorite in their opener against Long Island and then were embarrassed on the road in a 73-55 loss as a 12-point dog to Maryland. Rams have not been able to get their offense going. They shot just 39% from the field against Long Island and then a mere 30% against the Terps. 

Rhode Island has a solid trio of Langevine, Russell and Dowtin. Tide have guys that can give those three fits. Alabama's suffocating man-to-man defense travels well and will be too much for this struggling Rams offense to overcome. Take Alabama! 

3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pistons/Hornets over 219 -109

I look for the Pistons/Hornets to fly past the total set by the books Friday night. These are simply too bad defensive teams. Detroit comes in allowing 112.5 ppg and that jumps up to 115.2 ppg on the road. Charlotte is allowing 113.7 ppg and their defense is even worse at home, where they are allowing 118.0 ppg. 

The Pistons have seen an average score of 223 in their 6 road games this season, while the Hornets are combining for 228.2 ppg on their home floor. Charlotte also really likes to push the pace at home. They also struggle to defend spot up shooting, which is something that Detroit excels at. 

Charlotte has allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and the OVER is a dominant 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 such games of bad defense. OVER is also 6-1 in the Pistons last 7 on the road, 8-1 in their last 9 when playing on 2 days of rest and 8-2 off a loss. Take the OVER!