Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Double Never Lost Conference Tourney Blowout on Baylor -7
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and an upset loss at Oklahoma on Feb. 2, Baylor will be ready to roll tonight.

In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record - are 32-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 13.3 points.

I have also uncovered 2 play against trends that have never lost. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Sooners have lost these contests by an average of 16.2 points. Also, Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel in conference tournament games, losing these contests by an average of 8.3 points.

We'll lay the points with Baylor in this motivated spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back home losses to Oklahoma City and New York, and further motivated by a 24-point loss to the Lakers last month, expect Atlanta to give LA all it wants and more tonight.

Because LA crushed the Hawks 2 weeks back, it will be much more interested in upcoming games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando.

Atlanta has won 3 straight at home against the Lakers with the last 2 wins coming by double digits. In fact, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

In addition, plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive unders, are 55-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 2.9 points. Also, the Lakers are 2-14 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 96.8 to 95.4. Pound the Hawks.

4* NCAAB Conference Tournament Blowout on Akron -12.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and further motivated by an upset loss at Eastern Michigan last month, expect Akron to run up the score tonight.

Home court will prove to be huge for the Zips tonight. They have won 7 straight on their home floor. Eastern Mich, meanwhile, has dropped its last 7 on the road.

The Zips are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Akron.

The Zips have won their last 3 home games against the Eagles by an average of 18.0 points. We'll lay the number in this highly motivated spot.

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Hornets +10.5
Odds makers have overreacted to Chris Paul's expected absence with this line, especially considering the Bulls enter off an emotionally and physically exhausting win over Miami.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days against an opponent playing 6 or more games in 10 days - are 76-39 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points - tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days and with a winning record on the season - are 167-102 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take them catching 10-plus this evening.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +3
The Thunder were pushed to OT by the Suns Sunday, but I believe the Grizzlies used more energy in their win over the Mavs yesterday. Memphis left it all on the floor to erase an 18-point deficit and won on Zack Randolph's 17-footer with 0.3 left. It will be extremely difficult for the Grizzlies to get back up for this one after such an emotional win, especially against a Thunder team with payback in mind.

OKC will be motivated by a 4-point loss at home to the Grizzlies last month. The Thunder are one of the premier revenge teams in the NBA. In fact, they are 17-8 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in road games when looking for revenge, provided they allowed their opponent to score 100 points or more on them in the previous loss.

The Thunder are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Memphis. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Thunder and the points.

3* CAA Championship SMASH (ESPN) on VCU +5
VCU enters tonight's CAA championship game with tons of momentum on its side after taking down top seed George Mason by 16 points Sunday. Plus, it has a bone to pick with Old Dominion.

The Monarchs defeated the Rams last month and they also knocked them out of the CAA tourney a season ago. Those two defeats assure us that VCU will be very hungry and focused tonight.

VCU has either defeated Old Dominion or lost by 4 points or less in 9 of the last 10 and 12 of the last 14 meetings.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Monarchs, meanwhile, are juts 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as a favorite. Take the points.

3* NBA National TV SMASH (ABC) on Heat -5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at San Antonio, expect LeBron James and company to come storming back at home today.

As if its recent slide isn't enough motivation, 2 losses to Chicago already this season will add fuel to the fire.

Right away, I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 74-38 ATS since 1996. Facing an average point spread of 5.6 points, teams fitting into this situation have won by 8.8 points on average.

It is certainly worth noting that both of Miami's losses to the Bulls this season have come at Chicago. The Heat have been a different team at home, where they are 22-7 with a 9.5-point average margin of victory. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

4* Never Lost Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota -4.5
It's been a disappointing season for the Gophers, but I fully expect them to put all that behind them on senior day. Motivated by 4 straight defeats and a 3-point loss at Penn State last month, expect Minnesota to take out its frustrations on a Nittany Lions squad that is just 2-8 when playing away from home this season.

Minnesota enters off an extremely disappointing performance at Northwestern, but that actually bodes well for us today. Consider that Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Smith in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Golden Gophers are winning in this situation by an average score of 71.7 to 50.2.

The Nittany Lions are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Minnesota. We'll take the Gophers in this one.

4* Big 12 Game of the Week on Colorado -4.5
Motivated by a loss to the league-worst Iowa State in its last game, and a loss at Nebraska earlier this season, expect Colorado to bury the Huskers Saturday evening.

Taking Colorado off a defeat has been pure gold. In fact, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. We also can't overlook the dominance of the home team in this series. The home squad is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Colorado.

Colorado has been tough as nails at home where it is 14-2 this season. It has won its last two home games over two of the best teams in the league (Kansas State, Texas). Nebraska, meanwhile, has struggled on the road. The Huskers are just 1-6 in true road games. Lay the points.

5* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -5.5
The Aggies are a much better team than their record might lead you to believe. They are especially tough at home, where they are 6-1 in league play. That lone loss came by a narrow margin to league champ Utah State Wednesday. That was New Mexico State's 4th straight defeat, and it will have the Aggies extremely motivated here on senior night.

New Mexico State will be further motivated by an embarrassing 19-point loss at Nevada earlier this season.

All 6 of the Aggies' WAC home wins have come by at least 8 points. They should have no trouble covering this number against a Nevada squad that is just 3-12 away from home this season. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Wolf Pack are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Lay the points.

4* In-state Rivalry Showdown on Oklahoma +1
I fully expect Oklahoma to bring its 8-game losing streak to an end today. While the Cowboys have been solid at home, they have been atrocious on the road. In fact, Oklahoma State has lost it last 8 road contests, and 6 of those defeats have come by double digits. The Cowboys are a dismal 19-41-2 ATS in their last 62 road games. Also, they are only 4-13 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 75.0 to 65.4.

The Sooners are 11-4 at home this season, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Look for the Sooners to leave it all on the floor to come away with a win on senior day.

4* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama -4.5
If Bama wants any chance of making the Big Dance, it better win today. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss at Florida, I expect the Tide to do just that.

Alabama is a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.2 points. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. They are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. the SEC.

In addition, Bama has never lost under coach Grant when facing a poor pressure defensive team (forcing 14 or less turnovers/game) 15-plus games into the season. The Tide are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these foes, taking them down by an average score of 67.7 to 55.3. Bet Bama.

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Warriors +9.5
The Warriors will be extremely motivated when they step on the court tonight as they look to avenge last week's 115-93 loss to Boston. In addition to this being a highly motivated spot for the Warriors, they should also benefit from catching the Celtics at a good time. The veteran Celtics' starters have been forced to play significant minutes lately due to a short and ineffective bench. Key reserve Glen "Big Baby" Davis will not be in action this evening, and the new Celtics are yet to find a rhythm. Plus, Ray Allen will be playing with a banged up leg that forced him to miss Thursday's practice.

The Warriors are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. They are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Boston. Also, the underdog is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Boston is a lousy 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. It is also just 5-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, only winning by an average score of 93.7 to 91.2 in this situation. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +2
After such an emotionally and physically draining comeback victory over the Miami Heat last night, the Magic won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this hungry Bulls squad.

Chicago knows how Miami feels, having blown a 17-point halftime lead against Atlanta Wednesday. That loss will have the Bulls extremely motivated this evening.

This is an ideal spot to go against Orlando since its starters logged so many minutes last night. In fact, the Magic are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

It hasn't been good practice to fade Chicago following a defeat. That's because the Bulls are an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Bulls are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Chicago is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Great spot for Chicago.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Jazz -3.5
Working off a strong performance against the East-leading Boston Celtics, and with 2 days to gear up, expect the Jazz to get back in the win column at home tonight.

Denver has been rolling since the Carmelo Anthony trade, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets. This will be their second game in as many nights and their third game in 4 days. We should see some fatigue start to set in here, which accentuates the loss of Danilo Gallinari. Plus, both Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson have been dealing with the flu. With all this in mind, it is worth noting that Denver is 12-23 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It is also 15-28 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. More recently, the Nuggets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest.

Utah has been dominant at home in this series, winning 27 of its last 31 home games against Denver. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Utah.

Lastly, the Nuggets are 8-19-4 ATS in their last 31 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Jazz.

4* MVC Tourney *BEST BET* on Drake +1
Extremely motivated by a 90-64 loss at Bradley in their regular season finale, expect the Bulldogs to pay the Braves back in the first round of the MVC tourney.

Right away I love the fact that plays on neutral court underdogs coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, and going up against an opponent off a home win, are 74-36 ATS since 1997. This system is already a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.

One thing you don't want to do is play against Drake when it is coming off a defeat. That's because the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points, 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing SU record and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Drake tonight.

3* Pac-10 Power Play on Arizona -15
The Wildcats will be hungry tonight. Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 71-49 loss at UCLA last game, and out to avenge a 1-point loss at Oregon State earlier this season, expect Arizona to roll at home this evening. The Cats will be further motivated by the fact that a win guarantees them at least a share of the Pac-10 title.

Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home, where it is winning by an average of 16.6 points. Oregon State is just 1-10 when playing away from home this season, including 0-7 in Pac-10 play. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 17.7 points.

In addition, Arizona is 9-1 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Beavers, meanwhile, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Arizona in this highly motivated spot.

4* NCAAB *Underdog Shocker* on New Mexico State +7
Utah State doesn't have anything left to play for. It has already locked up a school-record fourth consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. New Mexico State, meanwhile, has plenty on the line. It can grab the No. 2 seed to earn a double-bye in the WAC tourney by winning its final 2 regular-season games.

New Mexico State is undefeated at home (6-0) in conference play, and it will no doubt be jacked up to take on the best team in the league. The fact that New Mexico State enters off three straight defeats means it will play with an even greater sense of desperation here.

New Mexico State defeated the Utah State Aggies in the WAC tourney last year, and it hasn't had much trouble with Utah State at home in recent years. In fact, New Mexico State has won 7 of the last 9 at home in this series.

New Mexico State is 9-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 home games and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -3
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss to Houston last night, expect the Blazers to take out their frustration on the lowly Kings. A brutal 15-point home loss to Sacramento in January should have the Blazers taking the floor with even more focus this evening.

Right away, I love the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, following an upset loss at home, are an impressive 80-39 ATS since 1996. Also, plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, following an upset loss, are 38-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Portland has won 4 straight on the road. Plus, it has had very little trouble with Sacramento. The Blazers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, including all 4 at Sacramento by an average score of 105-92 during this span.

The Trail Blazers are 25-10-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite, 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games playing without a day of rest and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Kings are a lousy 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Sacramento and the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall. Bet the Blazers.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Wizards OVER 211
After struggling offensively the past couple games, the Wizards should have no trouble scoring on the Warriors tonight. The Warriors are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 107.3 ppg on the road. In addition, fatigued legs are not conducive to playing good defense, and the Warriors will be fatigued having just played last night.

We all know what Golden State is capable offensively, and it shouldn't have any trouble scoring the ball against a Wizards squad that has allowed an average of 110.0 ppg over their last 8 games.

The Over is 5-0 in the Warriors' last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Over is 4-0 in the Wizards' last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Over.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -1.5
The Grizzlies want this one badly after falling at San Antonio Sunday. Considering they have won 4 straight and 12 of 14 at home, and San Antonio will be without Tony Parker, I like their chances.

Manu Ginobili stepped up and recorded 18 of his season-best 35 points in the fourth quarter to help the Spurs win Sunday. I expect Shane Battier to make sure Ginobli doesn't go off again. Without Parker to break down the defense and get the Spurs out in transition, Ginobli will be counted on heavily tonight. The Grizz will pay extra attention to him to make sure the other guys beat them, and I don't think they're good enough.

Memphis has been extraordinary in revenge spots. In fact, the Grizzlies are 14-5 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season. The Grizz are winning these games by an average score of 102.7 to 98.6. Memphis is also 16-5 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 103.1 to 98.7.

The Grizzlies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. Western Conference, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. Take Memphis.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Alabama +6
I'm taking the points in a game that should go right down to the wire. Alabama lost by just 1 point to Florida in last season's meeting, and the Tide will be out to return the favor here.

Alabama won the SEC West but still finds itself in a precarious position for an at-large berth. It likely needs a strong showing this week and potentially a deep run in the SEC tourney for its first Big Dance bid since 2006. With this in mind, the Tide know a win over Florida tonight would go a long way toward earning them an at-large NCAA tourney berth.

Florida looks to be the class of the SEC this season, but it has not proven that it can be trusted laying points. The Gators are just 4-13 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. The Crimson Tide are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. the SEC, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Lastly, it is worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

3* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -6
This is a tough spot for Atlanta, playing the second game of a back-to-back and its 5th road game in 7 days. Denver, which has had 2 full days to rest and prepare, will be the much fresher team this evening. Expect the Nuggets to really look to push the tempo in this one to take advantage of this fatigued Atlanta squad.

Denver is 24-7 at home this season, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home since making the Carmelo Anthony trade. The Nuggets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.

Also, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series.

Lastly, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 96-55 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Monday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Idaho State +7
The Bengals will be lacking no motivation in their final home contest. As if a 20-point loss at N. Colorado last month isn't enough motivation, a brutally embarrassing 63-39 loss to Weber State last game will fuel the fire.

The Bears have been far dominant away from home, where they are 6-10 this season. In fact, they have either lost or won by fewer than 7 points in 13 of those 16 contests. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have been competitive at home, where they are 7-4 on the season. They have either won or lost by 7 points or less in 9 of their 11 home games. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

In addition, plays on a home team out to avenge a loss to an opponent in which it was held to less than 50 points and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival, are 35-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 4.3 points. Take Idaho State.

3* NBA National TV SMASH on Lakers +1
The Lakers have looked like a different team since the All-Star break with 3 consecutive wins SU and ATS. The Thunder, meanwhile, enter Sunday's contest off back-to-back defeats.

We played against the Thunder on Friday in the wake of a trade that sent Jeff Green to Boston, and they went down 111-88 to the Magic. While I expect a better effort from OKC today, I still have it coming up short.

The Thunder are likely to have trade pickups Mohammed and Robinson in action today, but they are still expected to be without Perkins. They acquired Perkins to match up better defensively with the Lakers' size, and they will have a tough time doing that without him here. Also, the loss of Green makes the Thunder easier to defend. Now even more attention can be paid to Durant and Westbrook without a consistent third scorer.

Plus, the Thunder gave L.A. all it wanted and more in the postseason last year, so the Lakers will be out to send a message.

The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-22 ATS in their last 27 Sunday games. Take the Lakers.

3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on LaSalle -1.5
Really believe odds makers are tipping their hand here by inserting LaSalle as the favorite following 3 consecutive losses SU and ATS. The Explorers' most recent defeat was a brutally embarrassing one (100-62) at Xavier. As if that loss isn't enough to get LaSalle's blood boiling, last month's narrow defeat at UMass should do the trick.

The Explorers haven't had much trouble with the Minutemen lately. Prior to their January loss, they had won 4 in a row over UMass by a minimum of 6 points. LaSalle's 2 home wins during this stretch have come by 9 and 11 points respectively. 4 starters are back from the team that defeated the Minutemen at home by 11 last year.

The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at La Salle. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lastly, the Minutemen are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll get behind the home team in this highly motivated spot.

3* National TV SMASH (CBS) on Kentucky -7.5
Called out by Coach Cal following Wednesday's upset loss at Arkansas, and out to avenge a 2-point loss at Florida earlier this month, expect the Wildcats to put forth one of their best efforts of the entire season to cover this number.

Betting against Kentucky at home has not been a smart move this season. That's because the Wildcats are 13-0 on their home floor with an average winning margin of 23.8 points.

Revenge has been the ideal angle for backing Kentucky. In fact, the Wildcats are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games when looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent. Kentucky is winning by an average score of 72.5 to 61.3 in this situation. It is also worth noting that Coach Cal's teams are 10-2 ATS when looking to avenge an upset road loss to an opponent since 1997, winning by an average score of 75.1 to 60.2 in these contests. Lay the points with the Wildcats.

5* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -6
St. John's, which has been getting all kinds of hype during its 5-game win streak, is primed for a letdown. Villanova, which is in danger of losing 3 straight at home for the first time in 17 seasons, will be extremely hungry today. These two factors alone have me loving the Wildcats on their home floor.

The Johnnies are improved under Lavin, but they are being over-hyped. This team still hasn't beaten at top notch opponent on the road. The Red Storm have been handed a 15-point loss and a pair of 25-point defeats in their last 3 road trips against top notch Big East competition (Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown). Nova fits into the category of elite Big East schools. Now healthy, expect Nova to start living up to expectations today.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on home teams listed as a favorite or pick off an upset loss to a conference rival and up against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 40-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 10.2 points.

Nova has won 6 straight in this series and the last 4 wins have all come by at least 10 points. Look for the Wildcats to show St. John's it hasn't arrived just yet in this one.

3* Oklahoma State -8.5
Off 4 consecutive SU losses and 5 straight ATS defeats for Oklahoma State, odds makers are begging for the public to lay down on Texas Tech with this line. We won't bite.

The Cowboys are 12-2 at home this season and they will be extremely motivated today after getting embarrassed by 27 points at Kansas in their last game. Furthermore, Okie State will be out to avenge a 1-point loss at Texas Tech last month.

The Cowboys are a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Under coach Ford, they are 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick, winning these contests by an average score of 81.3 to 69.7. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 8-1 ATS if they are at home and favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Cowboys are winning these contests by an average score of 83.4 to 67.2. Lay the number.

3* Iowa State pk
This is a game Iowa State knows it can win to snap its 10-game skid. The Cyclones played the Huskers to a 1-point game in Lincoln last month, and I like them to get the "W" this time around.

While Nebraska is about as tough as anyone on its home floor, the Huskers have been about as poor as anyone on the road. Nebraska is 1-5 in true road games this season with their lone road win coming by 1 point.

Iowa State is a respectable 11-6 in Ames this season, where it has defeated Baylor and played Kansas, Kansas State and Mizzou down to the wire. ISU is a dominant 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. It is winning these contests by an average score of 72.6 to 64.9. Take the Clones.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Trail Blazers -6
This is a letdown spot for the new-look Nuggets, coming off a big win over Boston last night. This is a bounce back spot for the Blazers, meanwhile, following Wednesday's loss to the Lakers.

I wasn't very impressed with the Nuggets in their win last night. They were able to take advantage of the short-handed Celtics, but it's clear they have a lot of work to do to regain some chemistry. Having had a day to rest, Portland will be the fresher team. It also has the benefit of playing with a lineup that wasn't turned over. Denver's chemistry issues should really surface tonight in their first road game following the break.

The Nuggets are 8-17-3 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog, 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 4-15-3 ATS in their last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Lastly, the home team is a tremendous 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lay the points with Portland.

5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Magic -7
The Magic will be extremely hungry to get back in the win column tonight following a loss to the lowly Kings. A 1-point loss at Oklahoma City last month provides the Magic with added motivation as well.

The Thunder gave up a key piece of their team by trading Jeff Green to the Celtics. We're talking about a high energy player who gets the team 15 points per night. Without Green, it allows teams to focus even more attention on Durant and Westbrook. The loss of Nenad Krstic also hurts, especially tonight since Kendrick Perkins isn't expected to be available to guard Dwight Howard.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on any team coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-10 ATS since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are winning these games by an average score of 107.6 to 92.8. Lay the points.

4* WCC Game of the Week (ESPN2) on Gonzaga +3.5
Gonzaga has now lost 2 straight to St. Mary's, including a 2-point heartbreaker at home last month. Motivated by these losses, and with an opportunity to pull even with the Gaels in the WCC, expect the hungry Zags to take care of business tonight.

St. Mary's comes into this one with its confidence at its lowest point of the season. The Gaels have been upset in back-to-back contests - its latest defeat being a double-digit home loss to Utah State. That setback is very important to note, considering St. Mary's is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more.

It is also worth noting that the Gaels are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

Gonzaga has won 2 straight and 9 of its last 13 at St. Mary's. Take the Bulldogs in this revenge spot.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -2.5
This is a statement game for Miami, which is 1-6 against Boston, Chicago, San Antonio, Dallas and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Heat lost by 3 points at Chicago last month, but they didn't have LeBron James in that game. Plus, Chris Bosh left that game early with an ankle injury. With all of Miami's big three on the court tonight, I'm expecting a different result.

The Bulls are in a difficult scheduling spot, having played a tough one in Toronto last night. Noah, which saw his first action in months against the Raptors, likely won't be as effective tonight as it will take some time for him to regain his game shape. You can run all you want to try to keep your fitness, but it's not the same as playing in a high intensity basketball game.

The Heat have had the benefit of a day to rest their legs and really gear up for this one. The Heat are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 1 day of rest. I'm backing the fresher team that is out to make a statement. Lay the points.

3* SEC SMASH (ESPN) on Georgia +6
Georgia wants the Gators badly tonight after falling to them in double-OT in the season's first meeting.

I certainly like the Dawgs here, considering how solid they have been on the road. Georgia is a perfect 6-0 ATS (as a road underdog or pick this season, winning these games by an average score of 71.2 to 68.2. We also can't ignore the fact that Georgia is 15-5 ATS when out to avenge a home upset loss to an opponent. The Bulldogs are winning these games by an average score of 73.3 to 71.2.

In addition, Florida has not shown that it can be trusted when laying points. In fact, the Gators are just 3-13 ATS as a favorite this season. The Gators' last 3 home wins have all come by 4 points or less. We'll take the Dawgs showing solid value at +6 tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3
I won't hesitate to get behind the Hawks in this highly motivated spot. Out to avenge an earlier season home loss to Phoenix, and looking to quickly erase the memory of last night's butt-kicking in L.A., expect the Hawks to play with a ton of energy and passion tonight.

Even though Atlanta played last night, fatigue won't be an issue following a lengthy layoff prior to that game. Plus, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. In addition, the time to back Atlanta has been following a defeat. That's because the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. It is also worth noting that they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

Phoenix has not been able to be trusted in the small chalk recently. In fact, the Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Suns are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Lastly, it is certainly worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points with Atlanta tonight.

3* NCAAB Blowout on Duquesne -12
The Dukes return home after back-to-back games on the road, and I expect them to run Rhode Island off the court tonight. Duquesne has been nothing short of dominant on its home floor, where it has won 7 of its last 8. It is worth noting that those 7 victories came by an average of 20.3 points. During this stretch, the Dukes even handed Temple a 12-point loss.

The Dukes will have no problem getting up for this one as they look to bounce back from Saturday's upset loss at Dayton. They will also be out to avenge last year's loss at Rhode Island.

In order to beat the Dukes at home, where they are averaging 82.7 ppg, you better be able to score the basketball. That figures to be a difficult task for the Rams this evening, considering they are shooting just 41.4% from the field. This is a critical stat when you consider that Duquesne is 8-1 ATS versus poor shooting teams making <=42% of their shots this season. The Dukes are defeating these squads by an average score of 81.7 to 66.0.

It is also worth mentioning that the Dukes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. We'll lay the points.

5* MVC Game of the Year on Northern Iowa -6
This is a great spot for N. Iowa. The Panthers were defeated 70-45 at Indiana State last month, and I fully expect that embarrassing loss to be the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight. In addition, it's the last home game of the season for N. Iowa. Teams almost always take their level of play up a notch in these games to send the seniors out on a winning note. I expect a great effort tonight from this proud Panthers squad.

Right away, it bodes well for us that favorites out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home loss, are 145-87 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 5-1 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.5 points.

We certainly can't ignore the fact that N. Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS when out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers have bounced back to win by an average of 11.0 points in these games. Lay the points with the Panthers tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Raptors +7
Motivated by a pair of losses to Charlotte already this season, and looking to avoid matching a franchise-worst 11-game road losing streak, expect the Raptors to take the Bobcats down to the wire tonight.

Charlotte is an improved team under Silas, but it is getting a little too much respect with this line, especially considering each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 or fewer points. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. In addition, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The Raptors entered the All-Star break playing well. They defeated the Clippers and took Miami down to the wire for back-to-back covers. Expect Toronto's solid play to continue in this highly motivated spot.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Chattanooga +4.5
Chattanooga finally returns home after 4 straight on the road, and the Mocs will be extremely hungry tonight having lost all 4 of those contests. They'll be further motivated by the 85-59 defeat they suffered at Furman last month.

The Mocs haven't played since last Wednesday while the Paladins just played Saturday. This gives Chattanooga the big edge in terms of fresh legs and preparation time.

One has to like Chattanooga's chances tonight, considering it is 6-0 ATS in home games when out to avenge a loss in which it allowed its opponent to score 75 points or more the last 2 seasons. The Mocs are winning by an average score of 81.0 to 74.0 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Mocs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Chattanooga.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Syracuse +4
This game is all about revenge for the Orange, which lost at home to Villanova last month. The Wildcats shot out of their minds in that game, making a season-high 11 3-pointers. Expect Syracuse to do a much better job of defending the 3-point line this time around on its way to evening the score.

Taking a look inside the numbers, we find that Syracuse is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. We also find that Villanova has been a poor investment lately when laying points. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Both teams have won 4 of their last 6, but the Orange are playing better ball right now. Recently, Villanova fell to Rutgers and was fortunate to beat Seton Hall and DePaul. We'll take Syracuse and the points in this revenge spot.

3* 100% Perfect 34-0 ATS NCAAB *BEST BET* on Maryland -10.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Maryland to take care of business when it steps back on its home floor Sunday.

The Terps haven't had much trouble against NC State, winning 7 straight in the series with those wins coming by an average of 14.0 points. The Terps, in fact, are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 overall meetings in this matchup.

NC State has really struggled away from home. The Wolfpack, in fact, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, NC State is 0-6 ATS versus excellent teams this season - shooting 45% or better from the field and allowing their opponents 42% shooting or worse. The Pack are losing to these teams by an average of 15.2 points.

Also, Maryland is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons, crushing these foes by an average of 15.5 points.

With a 34-0 ATS angle in support, we'll back the Terps in this highly motivated spot. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Stanford pk
Motivated by back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the league (Washington, UCLA) and out to avenge an embarrassing 65-42 loss at USC last month, expect the Cardinal to take care of business at home tonight.

Right away I love the fact that favorites (Stanford opened as fave) out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home loss, are an impressive 142-85 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 6.7 points.

In addition, USC is just 4-8 in all games away from home this season. It has lost at both Oregon and Oregon State, so it is certainly susceptible at Stanford tonight, especially considering how much trouble it has had in Palo Alto. The Cardinal have won 8 straight at home in this series. It is also worth noting that the home team has won the last 13 meetings.

The Trojans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Expect Stanford to continue its home dominance here.

4* Big 12 *BEST BET* on Oklahoma State -2
Motivated by back-to-back defeats on the road and an embarrassing 71-48 loss at A&M last month, expect the Cowboys to take care of business when they step back on their home floor tonight. Oklahoma State is 12-1 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 9.5 points.

This is an ideal spot to fade the Aggies, considering they are 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, losing by an average score of 73.4 to 69.9 in this situation.

Dating back to 1998, the Cowboys are 11-2 at home against the Aggies, defeating them by an average score of 72-60. It is also worth noting that Oklahoma State is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons.

Lastly, the Cowboys are 11-0 ATS all-time under coach Ford in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), defeating these squads by an average of 13.7 points. Take the Cowboys.

4* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Indiana -2.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats and a loss at Northwestern last month, along with 6 full days to prepare, look for Indiana to hand the Wildcats their 5th straight road loss.

Northwestern has had no chance on the road against teams unwilling to do them any favors. In fact, the Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams (such as Indiana) committing 14 turnovers or fewer per game this season. The Cats are losing to these squads by an average score of 78.1 to 65.0. Going along with this, it is worth noting that Indiana is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season after 15-plus games versus poor pressure defensive teams (like Northwestern) forcing 14 turnovers or less per game.

Lastly, the Hoosiers are an impressive 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Indiana is an improved ball club, and I believe it will take care of business in this motivated spot.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on VCU +8
Off back-to-back defeats, the VCU Rams will be extremely motivated when they hit the floor this evening. I love the fact that plays against home teams listed as a favorite or pick that are coming off back-to-back wins against conference rivals, and are up against an opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more, are 35-9 ATS since 1997. This system is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Shockers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. The Rams, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

By and large, teams that have been able to turn the Rams over have had the most success against them. Wichita State, however, is not a team that forces a lot of turnovers. It doesn't play aggressive enough defensively to come up with many steals. This is significant as VCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Smart in road games 15-plus games into the season versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game. The Rams are defeating these teams by an average score of 72.3 to 61.0. Take the points.

4* Thursday NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +1.5
Playing at home with a day of rest under their belt, expect the Suns to avenge their Dec. loss at Dallas. The Mavs had a relatively easy time with the Suns in the season's first meeting, but they caught a major break with Steve Nash leaving that game in the first quarter with a neck injury. Prior to that game, Nash had averaged 19.7 points and 11.6 assists against his former team. Nash loves playing the Mavs, and I expect a big game from him this evening.

Phoenix does a great job of controlling the tempo at home. Its uptempo style of play should be successful in wearing down a Dallas team that is playing the second game of a back-to-back.

The Suns are coming off a 1-point win over Utah. This is significant because close victories have given this team a huge momentum boost. In fact, Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less under coach Gentry, winning in this situation by an average of 10.0 points. In addition, the Suns are a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less under Gentry, winning by an average of 15.8 points in this situation. We'll take this 18-0 ATS never lost angle to the bank tonight.

4* NCAAB Thursday Night Blowout on Gonzaga -14
The Bulldogs were upset at Santa Clara last month. That defeat assures us they will be out for blood when they take the floor tonight.

Winning at home against the Broncos hasn't been any trouble at all for Gonzaga. The Zags have won each of their last 3 home games in this series by 34, 42, and 37 points respectively. Going back to 1998, the Bulldogs are 12-1 against Santa Clara at home, defeating the Broncos by an average score of 84-65. It is also worth noting that the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Gonzaga.

The Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 13.0 points or more. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of at least 13 points. Lay the points as Gonzaga crushes Santa Clara in this revenge spot.

4* Pac-10 Game of the Week on Washington State +9
The Cougars saw their 3-game winning streak over Arizona come to an end last month as they endured a 2-point defeat. Motivated by that loss, expect Washington State to take the Wildcats right down to the wire tonight.

The Wildcats will be much more concerned with Saturday's showdown against a Washington team that crushed by 17 points last month than the task at hand.

Also, Arizona has constantly been overvalued at home in this matchup, which is evident by the fact that it has won 10 of the last 13 at home SU but is just 3-10 ATS in those games. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Washington State, which returns all 5 starters from the squad that swept Arizona last season, won't be lacking any confidence tonight. We'll take the points as the Cougars improve to 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at Arizona.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oklahoma +1.5
Off 3 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at Mizzou last game, expect the Sooners to take out their frustrations on a Nebraska team that is 0-5 in true road games this season.

With as poorly as Nebraska has performed on the road, it certainly can't be trusted laying points. The Cornhuskers are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or less. Also, under coach Sadler, Nebraska is just 17-32 ATS in lined road games, losing these contests by an average score of 69.9 to 61.2.

This is one matchup that has been dominated by the home team. The home squad has won 6 in a row. Plus, Oklahoma has won 5 straight at home in this series with all 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Take the Sooners.

3* Big Ten SMASH on Illinois -9
Odds makers have set a line to get the betting public on Michigan. We won't bite, however. The Wolverines have really struggled away from home with losses to Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern and Ohio State coming by an average of 14.5 points. Michigan has certainly struggled at Assembly Hall, where it has lost 12 in a row. Illinois' last 10 home wins over the Wolverines have been by an average score of 72-57.

The Illini will be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge a home loss to Purdue. I'll gladly get behind the Fighting Illini in this spread range, considering they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is an impressive 17-3 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Illinois has underachieved to this point and knows it. The Illini will be ready to take their frustrations out on a Michigan team they have owned at home in this highly motivated spot. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Nets +11.5
I don't see the Celtics getting up for a New Jersey team they defeated by 25 in December following a big win over the Miami Heat. Boston is ready to coast into the All-Star break.

The Nets, meanwhile, will be looking to gain some momentum prior to the All-Star break after back-to-back losses to New York and San Antonio. The Nets will also be very motivated here after losing each of the season's first two meetings with Boston. Knowing they played the Celtics to a 6-point game in the Garden earlier this season, and motivated by the 25-point home loss, the Nets will be ready to go tonight.

New Jersey is an impressive 16-5 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons, only losing these contests by 5.8 points on average. Boston, meanwhile, is 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average of 6.1 points. The Nets are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more.

The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Nets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Take the points with New Jersey.

3* Big East Bomb on Marquette -6
After 3 straight on the road Marquette finally returns home, where it is a dominant 12-2 this season, and I fully expect it to jump all over the Johnnies tonight. St. John's just defeated Cincy on the road, but that's not enough to sell me here. After all, the Red Storm have suffered losses at Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown and UCLA by at least 7 points.

The Golden Eagles have won 8 straight in this series dating back to 2003, and those wins have come by an average score of 69 to 57. The Eagles have won their 2 home games during this span by an average of 17.0 points.

The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite while the Red Storm are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Bulls -9
Expect a letdown from Charlotte tonight following a huge blowout win over the two-time defending champion LA Lakers last night. "This is probably the biggest, monumental win for the Bobcats and probably the biggest loss for them," interim coach Paul Silas said. "It was huge." In other words, Charlotte is feeling pretty fat and happy right now.

Right away I love the fact that Charlotte is only 4-12 in the second game of back-to-backs this season. Charlotte

4* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Week on Evansville +6
After a very satisfying revenge win over Northern Iowa, Wichita State will be much more concerned with Friday's national TV showdown against VCU than it will a team it defeated by 34 in late December. That win, however, will be the fuel that drives the Purple Aces this evening.

Evansville is 11-2 at home this season, and it has won 3 straight at home in this series. Plus, the Purple Aces are an impressive 8-1 ATS after 15-plus games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last 2 seasons. The Aces are only losing these contests by an average of 2.5 points.

We saw the way K-State responded at home last night following its embarrassing loss to Kansas. I expect a similar response from Evansville this evening. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Kansas State +6
Motivated by a loss at Colorado Saturday and further motivated by an embarrassing 90-66 loss at Kansas last month, expect the Wildcats to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 regular season meetings in this series, and K-State has certainly been getting the job done at home this season. The Wildcats are 12-1 on their home floor.

Backing the Wildcats at home following a road game has been a money-making venture. In fact, K-State is 15-6 ATS in home games after playing a road game under coach Martin. This is a good time to fade the Jayhawks. Consider that Kansas is 11-24 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are also an impressive 9-2 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams (45% or better from the field) over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the points with the home team tonight.

3* NBA Monday Night SMASH on Timberwolves +3
The T-Wolves will be out for blood on their home floor tonight after losing the season's first 3 meetings with Portland. With a day of rest to get geared up for this game, Minnesota has the advantage against a Blazers team playing their 2nd game in 2 days and 3rd in 4 days.

I don't believe Portland will have enough left in the tank after a hard-fought win over Detroit yesterday. Minnesota, meanwhile, will draw extra motivation from Saturday's poor showing at home against Philly.

In addition, plays on any explosive offensive team (102 ppg or more average) against an average offensive team (92-98 ppg average) after 42+ games and following a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are an impressive 45-16 ATS the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Take the T-Wolves.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* (FSN) on Arizona State +5.5
As if 7 straight defeats aren't enough to motivate the Sun Devils, an 80-69 loss at Arizona last month should do the trick.

It is certainly worth noting that ASU's losing streak isn't as bad as it looks. The Sun Devils only played 2 home games during this stretch and lost them by a combined 3 points. In fact, their last 3 home defeats have all come by 4 points or less.

Arizona is making steady progress, but it isn't yet worthy of laying this much chalk on the road in a big time rivalry game. We shouldn't be surprised, however, as Zona is constantly overvalued in this matchup. As a result, the Wildcats are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Since Sendek took over the reins, the Sun Devils are an impressive 16-7 ATS in home games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. His teams are winning by an average score of 64.6 to 59.6 in this situation. We'll take the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Warriors +1
Extremely motivated following perhaps its worst performance of the season, and with 2 full days to gear up for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back, expect Golden State to take care of business on its home floor Sunday. The Thunder got all they wanted and more from Sacramento yesterday, which makes playing a night later against a much fresher team very difficult.

I absolutely love the fact that the Warriors are an impressive 22-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 110.2 to 109.4.

The Warriors scored 109 points on the Thunder at Oklahoma City to cover the 7-point spread in a 5-point loss in December. I mention this not only because the Warriors will be further motivated to avenge that loss, but because they are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they score 105 to 109 points in a game this season.

It also can't be ignored that the Thunder are a dismal 5-21 ATS in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Warriors.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Duquesne -4.5
The Dukes have not forgotten the 36-point beating they took at Xavier last season. Motivated by that loss, I expect Duquesne to have its revenge Sunday.

The Dukes will be further motivated today following an upset loss to St. Bonaventure in their last game. It is also worth noting that that contest took place on Feb. 5, giving Duquesne a full 7 days to prepare for a game it has had circled since last season.

The Dukes have quietly been one of the best investments this season. In fact, they are 13-3 ATS in all lined games. They are 11-2 ATS as a favorite this season, 7-1 ATS in home lined games and 8-1 ATS against conference opponents.

Recently, this matchup has been dominated by the home team. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect this trend to continue here. Lay the points.

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Nebraska -4.5
Off 3 straight defeats, the Huskers will be out for blood when they step back on their home floor Saturday. Winning at home has not been much of a problem for Nebraska. Big Red is 14-1 on its home court this season with an average winning margin of 15.7 points. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has been extremely unreliable on the road. The Cowboys have lost their last 5 away from home.

Nebraska is so tough at home because it gets after it on the defensive end. In fact, Nebraska visitors are being held to just 55.2 points on 35.5% shooting this season. This is significant considering Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams (allowing 39% or less shooting) under coach Ford. The Cowboys are losing these games by an average score of 75.2 to 61.3. It is also worth noting that OK ST is 5-14 ATS as a road underdog or pick under Ford, losing these contests by an average score of 78.6 to 67.4.

Lastly, Nebraska is an impressive 26-13 ATS in its last 39 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses, taking care of business in these spots by an average score of 70.8 to 63.8. Lay the points with Nebraska.

4* SEC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Tennessee +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Alabama and Kentucky, as well as a loss last month to these Gators, expect an inspired effort from the Vols to result in a cover Saturday.

Right away I love the fact that Tennessee is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last 9 road games off 2 straight losses to conference rivals. I also love how reliable the Vols have been when catching points. They are an impressive 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Plus, coach Pearl - one of the game's best motivators - is a fantastic 11-2 ATS in his last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. His teams are winning these games outright by an average score of 74.7 to 71.5. Tennessee needs this game badly, and I believe they get it. Take the points.

4* Early Upset on Texas Tech +5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to the two best teams in the league (Kansas, Texas) and with a week to prepare, expect the Red Raiders to pull off the upset Saturday.

Tech only lost by 2 points at home to A&M last season, and I'm confident the Raiders can get it done this time around. The Aggies have been overvalued in Big 12 play and are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big 12 as a result. Tech, meanwhile, has been undervalued. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12 as a result.

Tech has been rock solid at home this season, where it has won 10 of 15 games. A&M, meanwhile, hasn't showed me much on the road. The Aggies lost at Nebraska by 9 points and only defeated Colorado by 3 in their last 2 road games. Take the points here.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Knicks +3.5
The Lakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, which leaves them very susceptible to a letdown this evening. I expect the Knicks to be ready, however, if L.A. does show up.

New York has gotten up for the best teams in the league all season. In fact, the Knicks have home wins over Chicago, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Miami. Plus, they even played Boston to a 2-point game at home.

A 109-87 loss in L.A. last month is all the motivation New York needs tonight. Consider that the Knicks are an impressive 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss this season. The Knicks are actually winning these contests by an average score of 107.2 to 105.6. New York is also a dominant 19-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Take the points as the Knicks give the Lakers all they want and more this evening.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +4
This is a tough situational spot for San Antonio, which is playing its 3rd road game in 4 days. The location makes this spot even more difficult. In fact, the Spurs have won only twice in their last 10 visits to Philly.

Under Doug Collins, the 76ers are currently playing their best basketball of the season. They won't be lacking any motivation tonight as they look to avenge a 116-93 Nov. loss at San Antonio. Revenge has been an ideal situation for Philly. In fact, the 76ers are an impressive 13-3 ATS when looking to avenge a road loss this season, winning these games by an average score of 104.3 to 94.6. If that road loss came by 10 points or more, this system tightens up to an awesome 8-1 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.6 points.

In addition, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, the Spurs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Philadelphia and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

4* Friday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Iona -11
This is one game the Gaels want badly. Siena has won 10 straight in this series, including a 73-67 victory last month. Fueled by these defeats, expect Iona to bring this losing streak to an end in convincing fashion.

The Gaels have been tough to beat at home, where they are 9-2 with an average winning margin of 15.3 points. The Gaels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Also, The Saints are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

This Siena team isn't nearly as good as the one we saw last season. Iona is now the more experienced squad, and it has 10 reasons to run the Saints off the court tonight. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +6
Riding the momentum of last night's win over Denver, the Warriors are in great position to avenge Monday's home loss to Phoenix. In that game, Phoenix shot 43.3% from the 3-point stripe while Golden State shot just 11.1%. That was the difference. I just don't see there being that big of a discrepancy this time around considering the Warriors are shooting the 3 nearly 2% better than the Suns on the season.

I know the Warriors just played last night, but this young team can handle it. In fact, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes in a game the previous day.

The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in this series. I'll ride the underdog here tonight.

3* Pac-10 *Power Play* on Washington -13
Off 3 straight losses on the road, the Huskies will be extremely hungry when they step on their home floor tonight. That spells bad news for a Cal team that was defeated by the Huskies by 21 points last month.

Washington has been deadly on its home court, where it is 11-0 this season and outscoring its opponents by 26.8 points. It is also worth noting that the Huskies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing 3 consecutive road games. They are winning these contests by an average of 15.0 points.

In addition, explosive offensive teams averaging 84 points or more on the season have never lost to Cal since coach Mike Montgomery has been on the sidelines. These teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS, winning by an average of 15.5 points. Lay the points here.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boise State -7.5
Off 4 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at Utah State in its last game, Boise State will be out for blood when it steps on its home court tonight. Besides, taking care of business against Fresno State hasn't been much of a problem. The Broncos have won 6 straight at home in this series with each of the last 3 wins coming by at least 12 points. Overall, the Bulldogs are just 2-13-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an embarrassing loss of more than 20 points. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after being held to 50 points or less.

The Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number with Boise State.

3* Big East SMASH on Rutgers +6
The Scarlet Knights have lost 4 in a row, but those losses don't tell the story. Rutgers is playing good basketball and has covered the spread in 5 of its last 6 games as a result. The Knights even played Pitt to a 3-point game in their last home contest.

Rutgers will be very hungry tonight in its return home as it looks to avenge last month's 81-65 loss at Nova. The Wildcats, meanwhile, will be much more concerned with Saturday's showdown with Pitt than the task at hand.

The Wildcats have been fool's gold when laying points on the road, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Rutgers has been very confident at home, where it is 9-3 this season. Expect the Knights to give Nova all it wants and more this evening. Take the points.

4* NBA Underdog *Power Play* on Clippers +7
The Clippers have lost 4 straight, but 3 of those losses came to Chicago, Miami and Orlando - 3 of the best defensive teams in the NBA. New York isn't nearly as solid at the defensive end, allowing 106.0 ppg. This gives the Clippers an excellent opportunity to keep this one close tonight.

With as high as the odds makers have set the total, it is clear they aren't expecting much "D" to be played by the Knicks. In fact, New York is just 16-30 ATS in home games when the total is greater than or equal to 210. It is losing these games by an average score of 109.5 to 106.7. Also, the Knicks can't help but be more preoccupied with Friday's matchup against the Lakers.

The Knicks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4
Last night we played on a 76ers team that had lost the season's first two meetings with Atlanta. Motivated by those losses, Philly rolled on the road. We'll make a similar play with the Bobcats tonight.

Charlotte will be out for blood after losing the season's first two meetings with the Pacers. It's difficult to beat any team three straight times, especially one playing as well as Charlotte. The Bobcats are coming off a huge confidence boosting win over Boston, and they have been a covering machine on the road. In fact, the Bobcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

It's going to be tough for the Pacers to get up for this game tonight after blowing a 14-point lead in last night's loss to Miami. I have a feeling that loss will still be hanging over their head. It has been extremely lucrative to fade the Pacers in back-to-back spots period, as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Bobcats should be the fresher, more focused team tonight. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Clemson -8.5
Clemson has been nothing short of dominant on its home floor, where it is 12-1 this season. The Tigers check into tonight's contest on a perfect 4-0 ATS run on their home court.

In addition, Clemson is a terrific 10-2 ATS in home games against conference opponents the last 2 seasons, defeating these squads by an average score of 72.2 to 60.3. The Tigers are also an awesome 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 62.7.

Plus, Boston College has had no luck at Clemson. Going back to 2003, the Eagles have dropped 4 in a row at Clemson by an average of 17.0 points. Lay the number with the Tigers tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies +7.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and out to avenge last month's loss to the Thunder, expect the Grizzlies to be in this one all the way Tuesday night.

This young and talented Memphis squad has been terrific when catching points. In fact, the Grizzlies are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

Memphis just played last night, but it is an impressive 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. It is even 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games when the starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Thunder have had a couple days to rest, but they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. OKC is being overvalued by odds makers tonight, and we'll look to take advantage. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Atlanta won the season's first two meetings by just 3 and 5 points respectively. It will have a difficult time making it 3 in a row against a 76ers team that is playing some ball.

Philly has won 6 of 8, and it has played its best against some of the best teams in the league. In fact, Philly is an impressive 10-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, defeating these foes by an average score of 96.6 to 93.5. The 76ers are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent). They are winning by an average score of 100.2 to 99.6 in these contests.

The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.

Lastly, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, if they are a hot team with 6 or 7 wins in their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 71-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Warriors -4.5
The Warriors are playing some of their best ball of the season. They have won three in a row while holding their opponents to just 88.3 ppg. Motivated by 3 straight losses to the Suns, expect the Warriors to keep right on rolling tonight.

The Suns saw their 3-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, and getting back on track on the road will be no easy task. Phoenix is just 9-14 away from home this season, and it has lost 4 in a row on the road to West foes by at least 5 points.

The time to back Golden State is when it is laying points at home. In fact, the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Suns, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Suns are just 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings at Golden State. Take the Warriors tonight.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -3.5
The Lakers got their 7-game road trip started off right with a win over New Orleans, and I expect them to keep rolling tonight. The Lakers may have Boston on deck, but I don't see them getting caught looking ahead here. They have dropped two in row to Memphis, including an embarrassing 104-85 home loss last month. Those 2 defeats ensure that the Lakers will be very focused this evening.

The Lakers are 16-8 on the road this season, and they have been extremely reliable of late in the road chalk. In fact, the Lakers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less.

While Memphis has won the last 2 in this series, L.A. has won 7 of the last 10. This is an important road trip for the two-time defending champs in terms of their quest for a 3-peat, and I'm confident they won't disappoint. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Nets +1
As if back-to-back losses aren't enough to fuel New Jersey's fire, a quick recollection of last week's 124-92 loss at Indiana should do the trick. Expect things to swing New Jersey's way this time around.

The Pacers have really struggled on the road, where they have lost 14 of their last 16. The Nets, meanwhile, have been playing good ball at home, where they are 5-2 in their last 7.

The Pacers have been a must-fade recently following any win as they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory. It is also worth noting that they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. Bet the Nets.

4* Pac-10 *Power Play* on Washington State -3
Big bounce back spot for Washington State following a terrible performance at Oregon and big letdown spot for Oregon State after an upset win over Washington. The Cougars won the season's first meeting by 14 points, and today's situation provides them with an excellent opportunity to take care of business again.

Plays against home teams off a home win over a conference rival if they are matched up against an opponent off a road loss by 20 points or more, are an impressive 104-61 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this play against system are losing by an average of 7.8 points.

Recently, the Cougars have been a terrific team to back when coming off a SU or ATS defeat. In fact, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Cougars are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.

The Beavers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Pac-10. We'll lay the points.

4* Big 12 Blowout Game of the Week on Missouri -10
Off consecutive losses on the road, Mizzou will be out for blood when it steps back on its home floor this evening. The Tigers are 13-0 on their home court this season, and they'll show no mercy to a Colorado squad that took them down in Boulder last month.

Mizzou has had no problem at home against the Buffs. In fact, the Tigers are 12-1 at home in this series since 1998, winning these games by an average score of 83-68. Mizzou has wins of 45 and 29 points in Colorado's last 2 visits.

Without a doubt, the time to back Missouri is when it is coming off a narrow defeat. In fact, the Tigers are a spotless 7-0 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 87.3 to 60.1. The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, and I expect their press to be way too much for the Buffs to handle this time around.

5* SEC Game of the Year on Vanderbilt -12
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further motivated by a loss at S. Carolina last month, expect the Commodores to run the Gamecocks off the floor today.

Vandy has been dominant on its home floor this season, where it is 11-1 with an average winning margin of 16.9 points. The numbers also suggest this is a great spot to back the 'Dores. In fact, Vandy is a dominant 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games off a cover in a game in which it lost straight up as an underdog. The numbers also suggest this is a poor spot for S.C., which is just 1-8 ATS off any conference win the last 2 seasons.

With tons of motivation in this spot, expect this superior Vandy squad to roll.

3* NBA Public Massacre on Kings +5
The Spurs are primed for a letdown after last night's thrilling win over the Lakers, and they will have their hands full with this Kings team, which is playing its best ball of the season.

The Kings have quietly covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games. They have wins over the Blazers (just beat the Spurs), Hornets (beat the Spurs twice this season) and the Lakers in the last two weeks. The Kings even took Boston down to the wire to cover the spread in their last game. This just goes to show you that Sac has competed with some of the top teams in the league recently.

I just don't think this veteran Spurs team will have enough left tonight against a youthful Kings team that is playing well. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Also, the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Celtics -6
Boston is at home (where it is 22-3 this season), rested (hasn't played since Tuesday) and out for revenge (lost by 2 at Dallas in season's first meeting). In other words, this is an especially good spot to back the Celtics.

The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks are also just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series.

The Celtics are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss.

Dallas has won 6 games in a row and is coming off a blowout over the Knicks Wednesday and it is getting 6 points? It's clear odds makers want money to roll in on Dallas, but we won't bite. Expect the Celtics' league-leading defense to lead them to a double-digit win tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Lakers -3
The Lakers will want this game more tonight. They have already lost to title contenders like Miami, Boston, Dallas and these Spurs. They're looking for a signature win to serve as a stepping stone to carry them through the second half of the season. I really like their chances of pulling through this evening.

The Lakers have won 5 of their last 7 at home against the Spurs in the regular season (7 of L8 overall including playoffs), so history is on our side here. Plus, they will be motivated by their earlier season loss at San Antonio, and they will be looking to end their home stand on a winning note before hitting the road for 7 games.

The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

Kobe Bryant has been downplaying all the media remarks about the Lakers having taken a step back. Trust me, losing to the aforementioned teams is burning him up inside. I fully expect him to respond in a big way. Lakers get the win and cover tonight. Lay the points.

4* Pac-10 Game of the Week on Oregon +3.5
Off a big upset win over rival Washington, expect the Cougars to endure a letdown on the road tonight. Oregon finally steps back on its home floor after 3 straight on the road, and it will be hungry to avenge a 14-point loss at Washington State last month. That shouldn't be much of a problem at home, where Oregon has won 11 of the last 13 in this series by an average score of 72 to 61. Oregon has also won 3 of the last 4 overall.

The Cougars are a completely different team on the road, where they have dropped 4 of their last 5. And their lone win during this stretch came by just 3 points.

This matchup has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread. In fact, the home squad is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Also, the Cougars are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Oregon.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar Upset on Samford +5.5
This Davidson team isn't anywhere near as good as the one that Stephen Curry played on a couple seasons back. Yet, it continues to get that kind of respect from odds makers. Consider that Davidson is even 0-8 ATS, after 15+ games, versus poor teams outscored by their opponents by 4+ points per game since Curry left. The Wildcats are only defeating these teams by an average of 0.4 points.

Davidson is 2-8 ATS this season in road games, losing them by an average score of 71.8 to 65.7. The Wildcats are also just 1-9 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average of 0.1 points.

Samford has struggled, but I love the way it responded to beat Elon after getting absolutely pounded by Wofford. Following that win, the Bulldogs were embarrassed by UNC Greensboro, which should provide them with plenty of motivation tonight. Plus, Samford feels like it owes the Wildcats, having lost 3 in a row in the series.

The Wildcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for the Bulldogs to pull off the upset.

5* NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Nuggets -8
Off back-to-back embarrassing losses on the road, the Nuggets return home with plenty of motivation to take down a Blazers team they have owned in Denver. The Nuggets are 20-5 at home this season, and they have taken the last five against the Blazers at the Pepsi Center by an average of 14.2 points. Denver even won the season's first home meeting 95-77 with Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines.

Anthony will be on the floor tonight, and he is playing well. Denver is 11-0 all-time at home in this series when Anthony scores at least 20 points.

The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Also, the Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Denver.

In addition, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.6 to 99.0. The Nuggets are also 15-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 112.1 to 101.1.

After such an emotionally and physically draining win over the top team in the NBA (Spurs) last night, the Blazers won't have enough left in the Mile High City this evening. Lay the points.

4* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Thunder -7
The Thunder want this one badly. As if Sunday's heartbreaking loss to Miami doesn't provide enough motivation, last week's last second loss at New Orleans will certainly do the trick. The fact that OKC led by 15 points in the first half in that game will really have its blood boiling tonight.

The Thunder have been terrific in revenge spots. In fact, they are on a 37-18 ATS run when out to avenge a road loss. They have also been terrific following home defeats, going 15-5 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Plus, this will be their 4th game in 5 days and they will be without leading rebounder Emeka Okafor. Lay the points with the Thunder tonight.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Kansas State -7
Letdown spot for Nebraska after a big win over Texas A&M, especially away from home where the Huskers are 0-3 in true road games. Bounce back spot for K-State, meanwhile, after getting brutally embarrassed by Kansas.

K-State, which was the preseason pick of the Big 12 coaches to win the league, has not played up to expectations, but I fully expect it to look like a league champ in this motivated spot tonight. Plus, it never hurts to be at home, where the Wildcats have been dominant in posting an 11-1 record.

Nebraska has long struggled on the road. In fact, the Huskers are a poor 16-31 ATS in all lined games away from home under coach Sadler. They have lost these contests by an average of 8.6 points. The Huskers are also just 2-11 in their last 13 visits to K-State, where they have lost by an average score of 72 to 60.

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take K-State tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Kings +7
I fully expect the veteran Celtics to coast tonight in the final game of their road trip. They came out West to beat the Lakers. After accomplishing that feat, not much emphasis will be put on tonight's contest. Plus, Boston hasn't won back-to-back road games since Dec. 11 and Dec. 15. Since then, they are just 4-5 away from home.

The Kings, meanwhile, are playing their best ball of the season. They have won back-to-back games and 3 of their last 4 against playoff teams. Sac has quietly covered the number in 9 of its last 13 games.

It has not been a good idea to back Boston following a double-digit road win. That's because the C's are just 4-17 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They are actually losing by an average score of 96.6 to 96.9 in this situation.

Plus, Sac was embarrassed at Boston earlier this month. That loss is significant because the Kings are 12-4 ATS when avenging a same season loss this season. They are actually winning these games by an average score of 98.8 to 98.6. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Kings.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Trail Blazers +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats at home and with 4 full days to rest and prepare, expect the Blazers to give the Spurs all they want and more tonight.

Some of the best teams in the NBA have struggled in the Rose Garden, and the Spurs are definitely one of those teams. In fact, the Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Portland and they have lost the last 4 SU.

Going to the numbers we find that home teams off a home loss, if they are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days), are an impressive 50-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, Portland is a ridiculous 70-46 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less since 1996.

Revenge isn't always a good angle, but it often is if the team looking for revenge was embarrassed. You could say Portland was embarrassed by San Antonio when it was held to just 78 points in a 17-point loss earlier this season. With this is mind, it is certainly worth noting that Portland is 15-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons when avenging a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. It is winning by an average score of 97.0 to 93.2 in this situation. Take the points.

5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -8
This was already a great spot for Illinois and it just got even better. Due to a massive winter storm, Penn State's charter plane was diverted to Evansville, Indiana. Now the team will have to travel the rest of the way by bus. It's easy to lose focus when dealing with such changes in schedule.

Illinois will be the more focuses team tonight regardless. The Illini have dropped back-to-back games, including a really bad loss to lowly Indiana. Plus, an earlier season loss at Penn State will add extra fuel to the fire.

Going to the numbers we find that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 47-17 ATS the last 5 seasons, 25-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.3 points. Plus, Illinois is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

It also can't be ignored that Penn State is 0-7 ATS after a game in which it and its opponent combined for 110 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Illinois has home wins over North Carolina, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State by 8 or more. Lay the points.

4* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi +7
After getting their butts kicked by Tennessee, the Rebels will have no problem getting up for tonight's showdown with Kentucky. They have an excellent opportunity to cover this number against a Wildcats squad that is playing a 6-man rotation. Kentucky has looked very fatigued late in recent games, and that fatigue could get them beat down the stretch tonight.

Mississippi's loss to Tennessee is important to bring up because the Rebs are 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Kennedy after a loss of 15 points or more. Ole Miss is bouncing back to win in this situation by an average score of 73.7 to 67.4.

In addition, the Rebels have had no trouble getting up for high-caliber opponents. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season versus very good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. The Rebs are defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 71.8. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Texas A&M +1.5
As if a date with rival Texas isn't motivation enough, especially after losing the season's first meeting badly, entering off a poor performance against Nebraska assures us the Aggies will be very hungry tonight.

A&M enjoys one of the best home court advantages in the nation. The Aggies are 12-0 at home this season, and they have had no problem at home against Texas. A&M has won 6 straight at home in this series, and the last 4 wins have all come by 15 points or more. In fact, the Longhorns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Texas A&M.

Texas may have won the season's first meeting, but Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when out to avenge a same season loss. It is winning these contests by an average score of 74.7 to 65.3.

A&M was held to just 48 points in its loss at Nebraska Saturday. This is significant because the Aggies are a perfect 8-0 ATS after being held to 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. They are bouncing back to win by an average score of 72.1 to 65.3 in this situation.

Lastly, A&M is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or less per game over the last 2 seasons. The Aggies are defeating these teams by an average score of 69.9 to 56.3. Take A&M at home.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +10
The Wizards are not getting the respect they deserve from odds makers tonight because of their 0-23 road record. This provides us with solid value in backing them.

As a 10-point road dog Friday, Washington took the OKC Thunder to double-OT. That recent performance shows the Wiz are capable of taking Dallas down to the wire.

The Wiz have really been undervalued lately against good teams. As a result, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are just 7-24-2 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The Mavs have been constantly overvalued at home the last couple seasons. In fact, they are 20-42-3 ATS in their last 65 home games, 18-38-3 ATS in their last 59 games as a home favorite and 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

4* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Iowa +7
This is a big letdown spot for Michigan following an upset win over rival Michigan State. Consider that plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, provided they are up against an opponent off a road loss, are 27-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Iowa has struggled on the road, but it will be ready to go following a disappointing performance at Penn State in its last game.

This has been a pretty tight matchup in recent years, even when Michigan has had more talent. And this year's Hawkeyes are far better offensively than we have seen the last few years. Iowa has won or lost by 7 points or less in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Under Beilein, Michigan is just 1-8 ATS in home games following losses in 4 of their last 5 games. In other words, the Wolverines have not been a good team to back when they are losing. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, and the Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Take Iowa and the points.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Celtics +3
This game means more to Boston, which lost its last meeting with the Lakers at the Staples Center in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Celtics did not have the services of Kendrick Perkins in that game. He will be on the floor Sunday afternoon, and I expect him to make his presence felt, especially on the defensive end.

Both teams are coming off embarrassing defeats, but it has been Boston that has really responded following such losses. Boston is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 road games following an embarrassing road loss in which it was held to less than 80 points. The Lakers, meanwhile, are just 18-42 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less under coach Jackson.

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Boston is also 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings on the road in this series. Take the Celtics.

4* Never Lost *Upset Special* on Montana State +2
Montana may have taken the Bobcats down last Saturday, but I expect a different story on the road this week. Montana State is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, where it is winning by an average of 15.5 points. It returns 4 starters from a team that took the Grizzlies down at home last season.

Under coach Huse, Montana State is a perfect 8-0 ATS all-time in home games versus good defensive teams holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting from the field. The Bobcats are handling these squads by an average of 9.5 points. This says a lot about how tough the Cats are on their home floor.

It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Plus, the Grizzlies are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Expect the Bobcats to have their revenge Saturday.

5* Never Lost Big Sky Game of the Year on Weber State +1
Weber State took an embarrassing 19-point loss to this Northern Colorado team in its last game, but it will have its revenge Saturday. The Wildcats have won 4 straight at home in this series, and I fully expect this trend to continue.

Weber State is 7-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 75.9 to 65.3. The Wildcats are also a perfect 6-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.6.

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4* Big Ten Game of the Week (CBS) on Purdue -9
Off an embarrassing performance against Ohio State, expect Purdue to be out for blood as it looks to avenge an earlier loss to Minnesota. The Boilermakers have had little trouble winning at home, where they are 11-0 this season and winning by an average of 21.8 points.

I have no problem laying points with Purdue. After all, the Boilermakers are 11-4 ATS as a favorite this season, winning these games by an average of 12.7 points. The Boilermakers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, under coach Painter, they are 13-4 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.

We certainly need to take notice when Minnesota is this big of a dog. That