Sports Picks & Predictions

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's contest between the Raptors and Spurs. These are two of the best the league has to offer and I expect both to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Anytime you get two elite teams facing off with a big total like we have here, the UNDER is always a strong option. In fact, the UNDER is 62-20 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 or more with two teams that are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg.

Last year these two teams played twice and combined for just 191 and 197 points. It's also worth pointing out that both totals last year were no where close to what we are seeing here. The total was just 187.5 at San Antonio and 192 at Toronto. We also see that the UNDER is 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 off a SU loss and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Timberwolves -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a much better team than their 11-23 record would indicate and a big part of that has been the inability to hold on to big leads. The Timberwolves have 9 losses this season where they led by double-digits. That includes their last game, where a 12-point halftime lead turned into a 89-95 loss at home to the Blazers. I think that loss is playing into this low number here and creating great value with Minnesota in a huge bounce back spot.

Philadelphia comes in off a 124-122 win at Denver, but have won back-to-back games just twice all season. I don't see it happening here, as this is a really bad matchup for the 76ers. Keep in mind the Timberwolves already annihilated Philadelphia 110-86 at home earlier this season and they were a 11.5-point favorite, which means they should be laying closer to 7.5 instead of 4.5 here.

76ers are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 20 or more points, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

I like the Jazz to go on the road and make easy work of the Nets tonight. Utah has gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Jazz come in having won 3 straight, but didn't play great last time out at Phoenix in a 91-86 victory. This will be the first of a 5-game road trip and I think Utah is going to come out looking to make sure they start their trip with an easy win. Best case scenario here would be to jump all over the Nets early and be able to keep minutes down before playing in Boston tomorrow.

Brooklyn is definitely a team that make that happen, as they just lost 95-118 last time out at Washington and have been losing by double-digits on a more consistent basis of late. Jazz are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Utah!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

Don't let this big number scare you away from taking the obvious play here on Utah at home against the Suns. Phoenix comes in off what looks to be an impressive 99-91 win at home over the Raptors, but that was more about Toronto being in an awful spot than the Suns figuring something out. The Raptors were playing on no rest after laying everything on the line the night before in Golden State. They were not interested in that game against Phoenix.

The Suns haven't won back-to-back games since early November (only done it once all season) and last time they won, they came out the next night and lost by 16 to the Rockets. Seeing how they have had a miserable time against the Jazz of late and Utah getting back a big piece in point guard George Hill, this has a blowout written all over it. Suns are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 off an upset win as an underdog, while the Jazz are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games against a team with a losing record. Take Utah!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Creighton +

I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one. The Bluejays are perfect on the season at 13-0 and will be out to make a statement here against the defending champs. This is also a key game when it comes to the Big East title race. If Creighton wants to dethrone Villanova, they can't afford to lose to them at home. We have already seen one elite team come into the CenturyLink Center and leave with a loss. The Bluejays hosted Wisconsin earlier this season and won convincingly 79-67.

Villanova has passed their only significant road test so far this season, winning outright at Purdue 79-76, but this Creighton team matches up much better with the Wildcats. Villanova has relied heavily on their defense, which is only giving up 61.5 ppg, but that unit will be tested here. Creighton has shot 50% or better from the field in all but one game, which is a remarkable feat given they are going into their 14th game of the season. The Bluejays are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 at home and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Iowa St -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones laying a relatively small number at home against what I feel is a very overrated Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders come in with a 11-1 record in non-conference play, but that's a result of an easy schedule. The best team they played was Auburn and they lost 65-67 and the Tigers aren't as good as this Iowa State team.

Texas Tech also played just 1 true road game in non-conference play and that was at Richmond, where they were favored. In fact, this will be the first game all season where the Red Raiders are an underdog, which speaks volumes to how easy their schedule has been. The Cyclones hit a bit of a rough patch, losing 3 of 4 after a 5-0 start, but two were against tournament teams in Gonzaga and Cincinnati and the other a true road game against an in-state rival in Iowa, where they simply couldn't buy a basket. Cyclones are 50-20 ATS in their last 70 home games as a favorite of 6 or less. Take Iowa State!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -

I really like the value here with the Pacers as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Indiana will be out for revenge here, as they just lost at Chicago 85-90 on Monday. Not a big surprise to see the Bulls win at home in the first meeting, given how the home/away splits of these two teams.

Chicago is 10-6 at home compared to 6-10 on the road. The gap between home and away is a lot bigger for Indiana. The Pacers are a strong 11-5 at home, compared to a miserable 4-13 on the road. Indiana has covered 4 of the last 5 at home against the Bulls and are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 home games when revenging a road loss. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on West Virginia -

You have to pick your spots with road teams in conference play, but I really like the value here with West Virginia at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cowboys. The Mountaineers went an impressive 11-1 in non-conference play and that included a 66-57 win on the road at Virginia and 89-57 blowout win against Illinois.

The Cowboys were a respectable 10-2 in non-conference, but weren't nearly impressive. The best team they played was North Carolina on a neutral court and they got absolutely destroyed in that contest 75-107. The Mountaineers aren't quite on the level of the Tar Heels, but I don't think they are too far off. Oklahoma State has also had a miserable time against West Virginia over the last 2 years, sweeping all 4 meetings and winning by double-digits in both matchups on the Cowboys' home floor. Take West Virginia!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies -

I'll gladly take Memphis as a small home favorite against the Thunder. We can expect an all out effort here from the Grizzlies, as they come in having lost two straight on the road. Now Memphis returns home, where they are a solid 12-7 on the season. The Grizzlies recent struggles combined with the Thunder having won and covered 4 straight, has created the value here with Memphis.

The Grizzlies may or may not have the services of Mike Conley. There's no question they are in better shape with him on the floor, but I still like them to win here without him. Memphis is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a road loss by 10 or more, while OKC is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog of 3 or less. Take Memphis!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Butler -

I got no problem laying this big number on the Bulldogs against the Red Storm. Butler comes in at 11-1 with wins over the likes of Arizona, Indiana and Cincinnati. The only reason this line isn't higher, is because St. John's comes in off a shocking 93-60 win at Syracuse in their last game. Just about everything that could go right went right for the Red Storm in that game and the Orange clearly weren't all that interested.

This is still a below-average St. John's team. Just prior to the big win over Syracuse, they lost at home to Penn State by 16. They also have losses to the likes of Long Island and Delaware State. What their win over the Orange does, is keep the Bulldogs from overlooking this contest, which they easily could have done. Butler swept the season series last year, winning 78-58 at home and 89-56 at St. John's. With this year's Bulldogs team looking even stronger than a year ago, I see no reason why they won't win here by double-digits. Take Butler!

4* Raptors/Warriors NBA ATS Annihilator on Warriors -

As much as I like the Raptors, I look for the Warriors to come out with a chip on their shoulder at home after losing the way they did at Cleveland on Christmas Day. Golden State has had a full days off since that heartbreaking loss and will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor. The Warriors already went into Toronto and beat the Raptors 127-121 and it could have been a lot worse as they had a 13-point lead at the half and shot 50% from the field.

Warriors are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Golden State!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Temple +

I like the value we are getting here with the Owls as a decently priced home dog against the Bearcats. Temple is 8-2 in their last 10 with one of those losses coming in a true road game at Villanova. The Bearcats are 10-2 and do have a big 1-point road win over Iowa State, but also lost by 10 at Butler. I just think this Owls team is too good to be catching this many points at home against a conference rival.

Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing on their 2nd game in 8 days, while the Owls are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as a dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Temple!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies +6.5

I like the value here with Memphis catching a big number against a Celtics team that they will be motivated to play well against. These two teams just played in Memphis last Tuesday and the Celtics won 112-109 in OT after erasing a 14-point halftime deficit. Boston's Isaiah Thomas was sensational, scoring 44-pionts on 10 of 16 shooting with 7 made 3-pointers. I'll take my chances here that Thomas doesn't match that production and we get another closely contested game.

The reason Memphis is listed as a decent sized dog here, is because they are playing on 0 days rest, after an ugly showing last night in a 10-point loss to the Magic. The thing is that game was lopsided from the start and the Grizzlies were able to avoid playing their key players big minutes, so they aren't going to be gassed here. Memphis is also a team that has thrived in this spot. They are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 overall in this spot. Celtics are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 against the Western Conference and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Memphis!

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Syracuse -

This is an ideal spot to back the Orange at home. Last time out Syracuse was embarrassed on their home floor 60-93 by St. John's as a 14-point favorite. The loss dropped the Orange to 7-5 overall and just 3-5 in their last 8. The key here is that all 5 losses came against quality programs in South Carolina, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgetown and St. John's. With their ACC opener on deck Sunday at BC, this is a game the Orange are going to come out looking to make a statement and get some momentum going into league play.

They should have no problem doing just that. Cornell is a mere 3-8 and have had a horrible time keeping games respectable against better talent. The Big Red's closest opponent talent wise to Syracuse was Houston and they lost to the Cougars by 30-points. The other thing here is that Syracuse has shown the ability to feast on bad teams. Out of their 7 wins, 6 have come by 20+ points, including a 105-57 win over E Michigan at home just last week. Take Syracuse!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pelicans -

I really like the value here with New Orleans laying a short number at home against a Dallas team that is getting a little too much love here after back-to-back road wins over the Blazers and Clippers. What gets overlooked is they caught both of those teams in bad spots. Each was playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, while the Mavs were coming off a day of rest.

Now they catch an equally rested Pelicans team (2-days), who has been playing much better of late and should be a great bet going forward, as they are finally starting to healthy. Jrue Holiday has played in just 17 of their 32 games and Tyreke Evans only recently returned and has played in just 4. This will be just their 5th game with their 3 best players on the floor in Anthony Davis, Holiday and Evans.

Let's also not forget that Dallas had been a miserable road team prior these two recent wins. Even with those two wins, they are just 3-13 on the road this season. Mavs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 2 days of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take New Orleans!

4* Bulls/Spurs NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

The defensive intensity is turned up a notch from what it normally is during the regular season on these Christmas Day games and the Spurs/Bulls matchup will be no different. Both these teams can get after it defensively. Chicago is only giving up 99.7 ppg and the Spurs allow just 97.9 ppg. 

This game means a lot to both teams. San Antonio wants revenge from a 91-95 loss in Chicago earlier this season, which is one of only two road losses all year. The Bulls are simply desperate for a win, as they have dropped 2 straight and 8 of their last 11. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Bulls 14 road games this season, 9-1 in their last 10 after a loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER

Playing on Christmas Day is a big deal for these NBA players and there's not a bigger game on the schedule today that the NBA Finals rematch between the Warriors and Cavs. Both teams want to make a statement and send a message to other team that they are the team to beat this year. While it won't quite be the intensity of a Game 7, it will be close. 

A lot of people get taken in by what these two teams can do offensively, but both are elite defensive teams when they want to be. They just don't play with that intensity on defense every game, as they can just rely on their offense to carry them against the majority of the league. Keep in mind that these two combined for just 182 points in Game 7 last year and we are sitting here with a total north of 220. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Celtics -

Boston is finally healthy and come into this one having won and covered 4 straight. This team expected a lot better than to be sitting here at his time with a 12-7 record, so I don't see them taking their foot off the gas. In fact, I think this could be the beginning of a big run for the Celtics, as long as they can stay healthy. The key here is we are getting some great value with Boston as a small home favorite, due to the fact that they are playing on no rest after last night's game in Indiana. The thing is this Boston team has great depth.

At the same time, the Thunder are a team that I feel is overvalued right now. Russell Westbrook is playing exceptional, but the rest of the team isn't and they are missing a big piece to their roster in starting guard Victor Oladipo. OKC has also not been nearly as good on the road as they have at home. The Thunder are 11-6 at home, compared to just 6-6 on the road.

Celtics are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 when playing on 0 days rest. It's also worth pointing out they lost at OKC earlier this season 96-99, as they are 30-17 over the last 2 seasons when revenging a loss. Take Boston!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic -

I think this is a great spot to back Orlando at home. I know the Magic are just 5-10 at home this season, but the Lakers are only 5-14 on the road and this is an awful spot for Los Angeles. The Lakers will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road, as they played and lost at Miami last night 107-115. It's also LA's 7th straight on the road, as they haven't been home since 12/11. Each of the last 6 have come on the east coast.

Simply put, this is a worn down Lakers team that just wants this road trip to be over with and to get home and spend some time with their families for the holiday. They also have a huge game on deck against the Clippers on Christmas Day, which is one they always get up for. Orlando's struggles at home are starting to get to them and I think we see a huge effort here after an ugly performance last night at New York. I simply don't see LA being able to match their intensity and keep in mind they are playing short-handed with Larry Nance out with an injury and Julius Randle not expected to play after returning home to be there for the birth of his child.

Home team has dominated this series, covering 5 of the last 6 in the series and the favorite is 8-3 over the last 11. Lakers are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing home record , 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Take Orlando!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wake Forest -

This is going to look like a big number for the Demon Deacons to be laying a home. Wake Forest comes in with a record of 8-3, while LSU is sitting at 8-2. The key here is the Tigers strong start isn't as impressive as you might think. LSU has played 7 of their first 10 at home (7-0) and most of those home games coming against inferior competition. Their only games away from home where neutral site games against Wichita State, VCU and Old Dominion. They went just 1-2 in those games, losing by 35 to Wichita State and 11 to VCU.

As we saw with Kentucky last night, going this deep into the season and having to play your first true road game is not an easy task. I look for the Tigers to struggle here against a talented Wake Forest team that is better than anticipated. All 3 of the Deacons losses have come away from home, one was a neutral site game against an elite Villanova team and the most recent a 65-69 loss in a true road game at Xavier, who is another top tier team. The impressive thing with the loss to Xavier, is they had a chance to win, despite shooting just 36.2% from the field and allowing the Musketeers to shoot 51.0%.

That was a rare off night from the floor for Wake Forest, as they have shot 47% or better in 7 of their 11 games this season. LSU has great defensive numbers because of their soft schedule, but allowed 47.1% against Wichita State and 49.2% against VCU. With this being their first true road game, I expect another poor defensive effort. Take Wake Forest in what should be a comfortable double-digit win at home!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

I strongly believe the books have the wrong team favored in this one. While Indiana is just 15-15 overall, they are a dominant 11-4 at home this season. Only the Warriors and Cavaliers have more home win on the season. The Pacers come in having won 5 straight at home and are going to be extremely motivated to make it 6 straight.

One of Indiana's 4 home losses came against these Celtics back in November, as Boston squeaked out a 105-99 win. What can't get overlooked in that loss for the Pacers was they didn't have the services of All-Star Paul George, who was out with an ankle injury. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge, but they will also come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing a 15-point 2nd half lead in a 111-118 loss at New York last time out.

Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a same season loss. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Oklahoma -

I like the value here with the Sooners laying just 6-points against Auburn on a neutral court. Oklahoma comes into this game with a record of just 6-4, but there's nothing to be ashamed about their 4 defeats, losing to UNI, @ Wisconsin, Wichita State (Neutral) and Memphis. The only game they weren't competitive was the true road game at Wisconsin, who is one of the elite teams in the country.

Auburn has the better overall record at 8-2, but the Tigers have played a pretty cupcake schedule. The best team they have played was Purdue, and they lost by 25 on a neutral court. Their best win came against Texas Tech and were fortunate to get that victory in a 67-65 victory. Auburn also lost to BC as a 10.5-point favorite. The Tigers have some nice young talent, but still have a lot of improving to do.

Note that not only has Oklahoma played the tougher schedule, but they have the better overall numbers. The Sooners are shooting 46.6% from the field, while Auburn is only hitting at 43.8% clip. The Tigers allowed Purdue to shoot 64.3% from the field. The Sooners should have  field day here on offense an I don't see Auburn being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pistons -

I believe we are going to see Detroit have zero problem covering this number at home against the Grizzlies tonight. The Pistons are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed 82-113 at Chicago on Monday, which followed a 15-point home loss to the Pacer and 14-point defeat at Washington.

I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to match the intensity of Detroit in this one. Memphis just played an overtime game at home against the Celtics last night, which they lost 109-112. It has to be a tough loss to swallow, as they led by 14 at the half and still had a 9-point advantage going into the 4th quarter. The Grizzlies had 5 different players log 30+ minutes. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if they rested some players tonight as they likely want to be fresh for Friday's division home game against the Rockets.

Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 13-2 ATS at home when coming in having lost 4 of their last 5. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning record. Take Detroit!

5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER

We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play.

UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* Kentucky/Louisville Vegas Insider on Kentucky -

I have no problem backing the Wildcats on the road against a very good Louisville team. Kentucky has the better overall talent in this one and potentially the best player in the country in freshman guard Malik Monk, who just dropped 47 on North Carolina in the Wildcats last game. Louisville is a team that relies on their defense to beat teams and that works to perfection against lessor opponents. I just don't see them having an answer here for Kentucky's star power.

This isn't the first time both teams have been good, yet the Wildcats come in having won each of the last 4 meetings. Louisville is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a dog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the SEC. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the ACC and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road. Take Kentucky!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Smash on Iowa -

I got no problem laying this number with the Hawkeyes at home against an inferior North Dakota team. After a slow start against a brutal schedule, Iowa has looked like a completely different team of late. It started with a 95-68 blowout win over Stetson at home. That got the Hawkeyes confidence back and they followed it up with dominant performances against Iowa State (78-64) and UNI (69-46), winning both in blowout fashion as an underdog.

With an overall record of 6-5, Iowa can't afford to let their guard down here at home against the Fighting Hawks. I believe a lack of effort is the only thing that could keep the Hawkeyes from winning here by 15+ points. Note that the same UNI team Iowa just crushed on a neutral court, lost to the Panthers by 8-points.

It's also worth pointing out that Iowa has a much better home court edge than people think and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Hawkeyes are also a great bet when playing at home and well rested. They are 32-12 in their last 44 home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week. Take Iowa!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton -

I'll gladly back the Bluejays laying single digits on the road against the Sun Devils. Creighton comes in having yet to lose in 2016 at 11-0 and should have no problem leaving this one without a loss. The Bluejays were fortunate to leave their last game with a win, squeaking by Oral Roberts at home 66-65 as a massive 25-point favorite. I believe that will serve as a wake up call for Creighton and have them sharp and ready to go here against ASU.

The Sun Devils come in off a 11-point loss at home to New Mexico State and have really struggled just to make games competitive against top level teams. Arizona State has a 19 point loss to UNI, 46-point loss to Kentucky and 33-point loss to Purdue. A big reason for their struggles is they don't play any defense. Sun Devils are allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.3% from the field on the season and have allowed 5 teams to shoot 50% or better already. Creighton is one of the most efficient offense in the country. The Bluejays come in shooting 53.8% from the field and their worst shooting effort in any game this season is 48.3%. Take Creighton!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Cavs/Bucks UNDER

These two teams recently played in Milwaukee on 11/29. The Bucks won that game 118-101. While that game finished over the total of 213.5, we find an even shorter total in the rematch. For good reason. Cleveland didn't show any interest on the defensive side of the ball in that last meeting and the Cavs aren't a team that takes losing lightly. They are going to be out to make a statement here against the Bucks and have really been locking down defensively here of late.

Milwaukee is also going to be all business in this one, as they know they are going to get a great effort here from Cleveland and want to prove that their earlier win was no fluke. Milwaukee's defense has been hit or miss, but they have consistently showed up on that side of the ball against division opponents, as they are allowing just 94.4 ppg against their Central rivals this season. The Bucks also catch a break here, as the Cavs will be minus a huge weapon on offense in Kevin Love, who is doubtful with a knee injury.

UNDER is 35-17 in Milwaukee's last 52 after a SU win, 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central Division and 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

This might seem like a lot of points for the Knicks to be laying, given they have lost 3 straight and are fresh off a 13-point loss to the Nuggets, but this is an ideal spot for New York to bounce back. The Knicks will be returning home, where they are 9-4 this season and have two full days off to regroup and get their legs back. They will also be welcoming back starting point guard Derrick Rose, whose recent absence had a lot to do with their struggles.

While New York is primed for a big bounce back effort, the Pacers are going to have a difficult time playing well here. Indiana will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, after a grueling 107-105 win at home last night against the Wizards. This will also be the Pacers 4th game in the last 5 days. To top it off, they are playing short-handed with Ellis and Stuckey both sidelined, plus are just 4-10 on the road this season.

Indiana is a mere 3-11 ATS this season off a SU win and 8-20 ATS over the last 3 years when playing on the road after scoring 100 or more in 2 straight games. Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 110 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after playing their last two games as a dog. Take New York!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Air Force +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Falcons catching a big number at home against the Buffaloes. Air Force is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their 6 and fresh off a ugly 12-point home loss to Denver as a 5.5-point favorite. We are going to get an all out effort here from the Falcons against a Power 5 opponent and I think they are capable of pulling off the upset.

Colorado comes in off a less than impressive effort, as they only won 81-71 at home against Fort Hayes State. A team they were expected to destroy to the point that the books didn't even put up a line on it. The Buffaloes have struggled to cover off a win, as they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after securing a victory last time out. They are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against the MWC. Falcons on the other hand are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take Air Force!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers OVER

I think these two teams will have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. The Wizards have seen the OVER cash in 5 straight games, all of which seen a combined score of 213 or more. Washington is averaging 111.8 ppg during this stretch and giving up 108.2 ppg. I don't see the Pacers being able to keep Washington's offense in check here. Indiana is in a big flat spot here defensively, as they have played 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 on the road and are short-handed right now with both Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey sidelined with injuries.

The key here is that Indiana still has the fire-power offensively to take advantage of Washington's poor defense. On top of that, the Wizards don't figure to bring much intensity defensively in this one. Washington just played yesterday at home against the Clippers and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.

OVER is 23-9 in the Wizards last 32 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-3 in their last 17 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less. OVER is also 10-1 in Washington's last 11 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Michigan State -

The Spartans come in off a 71-63 win over Tennessee Tech, but failed to cover as a 19-point favorite. It was a sloppy performance and Michigan State really beat themselves by going just 17-30 from the free throw line. Izzo was far from pleased with the performance and with 7-days off from that game to this one, I expect a big time effort here from the Spartans at home against a bad Northwestern team that is taking a major step up in this one. It's also worth pointing out Michigan State will get back Matt McQuaid after he missed the previous game. He's a key contributor and one of their best 3-point shooters.

The Spartans are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after playing their previous game as a home favorite and an identical 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after a home win. This is a statement game for Michigan State and I believe this line should be closer to 20 than 10. Izzo is going to have the troops ready and it's important to keep in mind they can't flirt with losing any of these games against inferior competition after their poor start against a brutal schedule. Take Michigan State!

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing exceptional value here at home against the Jazz. Memphis will be all business after an ugly 92-96 loss at home to the Kings last time out. They also will be getting back the glue to their team in point guard Mike Conley, which is key here, as Utah continues to be without their starting point guard in George Hill.

The Jazz come in having won 10 of 12, but a lot of that has to do with a very favorable schedule. During this stretch, Utah has played just two road games and they were against inferior teams in the Timberwolves and Lakers. This is their first real road test since going to Houston back on 11/19 and I think it's going to be difficult for them to play well against a talented Memphis team that owns a 11-5 record at home this season.

Grizzlies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games after losing 2 of their last 3, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. Utah on the other hand is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Memphis!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I think both of these teams are primed for a poor offensive showing in this one. Both are going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and there's a little extra motivation defensively here with this being a division matchup. Indiana is playing without one of their top offensive weapons in Monta Ellis and his absence has really improved their defense. Detroit on the other hand just played last night in Washington, where the defense failed to show up in a 108-122 defeat. I look for a much better effort defensively at home, where the Pistons are only giving up 90.7 ppg on the season.

UNDER is 26-6 in the Pacers last 32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 10-2 in their last 12 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 as a home favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on UCLA -

I'm got no problem laying this big number on the Bruins against what I feel is a very average at best Ohio State squad. UCLA is the real deal this season and are off to an 11-0 start. They proved just how good they are with a 97-92 win in a true road game at Kentucky, which they followed up with a 102-84 win over Michigan, who I think is on the same level as the Buckeyes in the Big Ten ranks.

The only reason this line isn't more, is because Ohio State played out of their minds and nearly upset Virginia on the road in a 61-63 loss as a 12-point dog. This is a different story, as the Bruins are a much more lethal offensive team and I just don't see the Buckeyes having the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Take UCLA!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls -

The Bucks jumped on the Bulls early at home last night and cruised to a 108-97 win, easily covering the spread as a pick'em. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Chicago come out flat, as they knew they were going to get Milwaukee on their home court tonight. The biggest thing with these home-and-home matchups is making sure you get at least a split. So while the Bulls are going to come out extremely motivated here, the Bucks will struggle to bring that same intensity they had last night.

Another big key here is this Chicago team has shown that when they are motivated and want to play well, more times than not they deliver. Prime examples being their recent home wins over both the Cavs and Spurs. It's also worth pointing out the Bucks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Milwaukee is 9-6 at home, compared to 3-6 on the road. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-6 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons -

I'm going to back the Pistons again here as a small road favorite against the Wizards. Detroit's a team that I believe is only going to keep getting better, as they just recently got back starting point guard Reggie Jackson. The Pistons are just 6-9 on the road on the season, but have been playing much better on the highway of late. Detroit is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Washington has won 3 of their last 4, but I'm still not buying this team. The Wizards have two talented guards in Wall and Beal, but the rest of the roster is nothing to get excited about. A lot of that has to do with these two taking a ton of shots and not being all that efficient. When you don't share the ball like the Wizards, you are easy to defend and Detroit is been playing lock down defense of late, allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5.

Last time out the Wizards won 109-106 over division rival Charlotte as a 2-point dog. That only adds value to the Pistons. Washington is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a cover and a mere 4-15 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 3-points or less. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nets/Magic OVER

This one has a shootout written all over it, as two struggling teams face off Friday night with Nets (7-17) visiting the Magic (11-16). Anytime Brooklyn is involved in a game, you have to lean to the over, especially on the road. The OVER is 17-7 in the Nets 24 games overall this season and 10-1 in their 11 road games. Why is that? Brooklyn leads the league in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game and have shown the ability to score at 106.5 ppg. On top of that, they rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency and come in giving up 118.5 ppg.

You might be thinking Orlando isn't a great bet here, as the Magic come in averaging just 96.6 ppg overall and a mere 94.8 ppg at home. It's all about Orlando's current form. The Magic are averaging 105.4 ppg over their last 5 and have seen a combined score of 121 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the OVER!

5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here.

The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total.

It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Bucks -

Now is the time to strike with Milwaukee as a small home favorite against the Bulls. The Bucks are going to be all business in this one, as they come in having lost 3 straight with the last game being an embarrassing 22-point loss at Toronto. This games simply means more to Milwaukee, as these two will turn around and play in Chicago tomorrow night, so the Bulls know win or lose here they get to take care of business at home.

The Bulls got off to a strong start, but have been slumping a bit of late. While Butler and Wade continue to play at a high level, they aren't getting a lot of production from the rest of the roster. The offense can become stagnant, which we saw first hand in their last game against the Timberwolves. Chicago scored 38 in the first quarter and led by 20+ points, only to score 18, 19 and 19 over the final 3 quarters. Milwaukee is a much better team at home and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Milwaukee!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Nevada -

The Wolf Pack have been impressive early, going 8-2 over their first 10, with a perfect 4-0 record at home. Nevada hasn't just been beating teams at home, they have been dominating them, outscoring teams 82.5 to 66.2. As for UC-Irvini, they have spent most of the early portion of their scheduling traveling and it's starting to take it's toll. That's evident by their 53-84 blowout loss at St. Mary's last time out. That came just 3 days ago, so the Anteaters are coming into this one with some tired legs.

The Wolf Pack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering the spread in their last game, while UC-Irvine is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Nevada!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pistons -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with Detroit against a bad Mavericks team. The Pistons have been playing some of their best basketball here of late, as they are 7-4 in their last 11. I look for them to be extra motivated here after an embarrassing showing at home in a 79-97 loss to the 76ers. Detroit hasn't lost back-to-back games since the middle of November and I don't expect that streak to end here.

Dallas is still without three key pieces in Nowitzki, Barea, and Bogut and are going to struggle to be competitive without them in the lineup. The Mavericks are getting some love here off a 20-point blowout win at home against the Nuggets, but they haven't won back-to-back games since the beginning of November. Last time they followed up a win over the Pacers with a 22-point blowout loss to the Rockets. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Detroit laid a similar type of beating on them here.

Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite and have won these games by almost 8.0 ppg. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

These two teams are poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. Houston likes to play at a frantic pace and should have no problem pushing the tempo here, as they will be playing their third straight at home and just their second game in the last 4 days. It certainly helps facing a Kings team that has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball, as they are giving up 103.5 ppg. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point shot, which is what the Rockets do better than anybody in the league, as they come into this one having made an NBA-record 10 or more 3-points in 24 straight games.

When the offense is rolling, Houston doesn't have to worry as much on the defensive side of the ball and we saw that first hand in their last game at home against the Nets, where they allowed Brooklyn to put up 118 points on 52.5% shooting. Sacramento is a very capable offensive team and should have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark and pushing this game into the 220's.

OVER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Lakers -

I'm going to back the Lakers here as a small road favorite against the Nets. Los Angeles is desperate for a win, as they come in having lost 7 straight. While you could argue the Lakers aren't much better than the Nets and shouldn't be favored, I believe there's a significant talent gap here, especially now that Russell and Young have returned from injuries. Brooklyn simply doesn't haven't great talent to work with and it's really starting to show in their results of late, as they have struggled just to keep games competitive.

We got a great system in play backing the Lakers to cover here on the road based on this small line we are getting. Road teams that have won between 25% to 40% of their games with a line of +3 to -3 off 6 or more consecutive loses are 26-6 (81%) against the spread since 1996 when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Warriors -

I look for the Warriors to lay it on the Pelicans tonight. Golden State has failed to cover their last 3 and simply haven't shot the ball up to their standards during this stretch. They should have no problem getting their offense going against the Pelicans. New Orleans is giving up 108.7 ppg at home and in their last 2 have allowed 133 and 119 to the Clippers and Suns.

While the Pelicans have a superstar in Anthony Davis, they don't have the weapons around him to get into a shootout with this high-powered Warriors attack. Golden State should put up 120+ here and I just don't see New Orleans being able to keep pace. New Orleans is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of their last two games and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off a upset win as a road underdog. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER

I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9.

While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6.

OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Temple +

I really like the value here with the Owls catching a huge number against the Wildcats in this Big 5 matchup. Villanova is simply way overvalued right now. The Wildcats are not only the defending champs, but are ranked No. 1 thanks to a perfect 10-0 start to the 2016-17 season. Villanova is coming off a fortunate cover against Notre Dame, winning 74-66 as a 5-point favorite, as they trailed by double-digits in that contest.

Temple likely doesn't have what it will take to give the Wildcats their first loss of the season, but they are certainly talented enough to keep this within 16-points and wouldn't be surprised if they kept it within single-digits. The Owls have won 6 of their last 7 and that stretch includes a 81-77 win over West Virginia as a 12.5-point dog. Temple has the inside/outside balance offensively to give Villanova trouble here and have thrived in the role of the dog. The Owls are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a dog and are 5-0 ATS when playing away from home this season. Take Temple!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Rockets OVER

I'm not worried about this big total here, as this game has a shootout written all over it. Houston comes in averaging 110.8 ppg at home and will be facing a Brooklyn defense that is giving up 118.2 ppg on the road. The Nets are a much better offensive team that people give them credit for and come in averaging 106.0 ppg. Houston is allowing just 100.0 ppg at home, but I look for them to struggle to bring the effort defensively here against a bad team, who is going to let them do whatever they want offensively.

Pace is a key thing when looking at totals and this one should feature a frantic pace, as the Nets come in 2nd in the league in pace this season and Houston is a respectable 11th. Another big key with the Rockets offense, is they are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Nets are 29th in defensive efficiency.

OVER is 14-4 in the Nets last 18 against teams who teams who attempt 18 or more 3 points shots/game and 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are scoring 103+ ppg. OVER is also 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 when playing against a bad team (Winning Percentage of 25% to 40%). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Raptors. While the Bucks come in having lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 overall, they have been playing some of their best basketball here of late. In fact, Milwaukee hasn't lost a game by more than double-digits since losing 75-86 at Dallas way back on 11/6. It's not like they haven't been playing good teams during this stretch, as they have played the Warriors, Raptors, Cavs and Spurs during this run.

That game against the Raptors saw them lose 99-105 at home and they hung right there with Toronto from the opening tip. I just think they are going to want this game more, as the Raptors are poised for a bit of a letdown here after getting a much-needed two-day break over the weekend.

Bucks are 40-24 ATS in their last 64 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and  21-9 ATS in their last 30 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans +

I really like the Pelicans in this spot. They come in having lost 5 straight, but it's been a really tough stretch, as two of those defeats came against the Clippers and two more were against a couple of surging teams in the Grizzlies and Thunder. New Orleans rested up some guys in last night's 105-133 blowout loss to the Clippers, with the intention of laying it all on the line in this game against the Suns. 

Phoenix is certainly a team they can beat on the road. The Suns are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall and are just 3-6 SU at home this season. Phoenix has also not fared well when listed as a favorite this season. It's only happened 4 times, but all 4 resulted in the Suns getting destroyed. They lost 94-113 at home to the Kings as a 3-point favorite, 104-122 at home to the Nets as a 4.5-point favorite, 105-120 at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite and 114-120 at home to the Nuggets as a 2.5-point favorite. 

This is also a really great matchup for the Pelicans, as Phoenix is a guard-oriented team and don't have the talent inside to counter Anthony Davis. Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 after winning their previous game and 1-10 ATS when coming off a victory of 6-points or less. Take New Orleans! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on St. Joe's - 

I'm going to lay the points with the Hawks, as I think we are getting some great value here due the fact that they come in having lost 4 straight. The thing is, they played a brutal stretch during the losing streak. They were competitive in losses to Ole Miss, NC State and Temple, before getting beat bad on the road by an elite Villanova team. With a major step down in competition here with Drexel, St. Joe's is poised to put this one away early. 

The Dragons are 4-4, but there's not a lot to be impressed with. Their 4 wins are against Hartford, North Texas, Lafayette and High Point. The losses are against Monmouth, Rutgers, LaSalle and Niagara, who I think are all worse than this St. Joe's squad. The big key is they weren't competitive in most of those defeats, as all 4 came by at least 9 with two coming right around the 20-point mark. 

Hawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after failing to cover in 4 straight games, while Drexel is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games and 3-12 in their last 15 home games after playing in back-to-back games where they were called for 22 or more fouls. Take St. Joe's!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wizards -

I had the Bucks last night in a crushing loss, as Milwaukee blew a 20-point halftime lead at home in a 110-114 loss as a mere 3-point favorite. That's the kind of defeat that is hard to bounce back from, especially when you are playing on the road on no rest. I look for the Bucks to come out flat here, which is something they have done on the regular when playing on the road, as Milwaukee is just 3-4 on the highway, scoring a mere 94.7 ppg.

I know Washington has been a disappointment thus far, but I actually like that, as we know we are going to get a big effort here from the Wizards on their home floor, as they continue to try and get their season turned around. Washington is also playing with some confidence, as they knocked off the Nuggets 92-85 on Thursday and it's the defensive effort that has me excited, as this is a team that had given up 100+ in each of their previous 4. The lack of effort defensively is a big reason why they are sitting at 8-13. I look for another strong showing on that side of the ball, which should be all the Wizards need to win here going away. Take Washington!

4* NBA Vegas ATS Shocker on Blazers

The Pacers continue to be one of the biggest disappointments early on, as they come into this one sitting at 11-12 through their first 23 games and fresh off an ugly loss at Dallas, who even with the win are tied with the 76ers with a league-low 5 wins. While Indiana has played better at home, this is a really tough spot for them, as the game against the Mavs last night finished up a 5-game west coast trip. So not only are they poised to be flat off the long road trip, but they are playing on no rest.

Portland is another team that hasn't quite lived up to expectations, but I like them in this spot. The Blazers are desperate for a win after dropping their last two at Memphis and Milwaukee in close defeats. However, the biggest key here is the domination of Portland in this series. They have won 5 straight against the Pacers, including a 131-109 blowout win at home to close out November.

Pacers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Portland!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of Month on Xavier -

I have zero problem laying double-digits on the Musketeers at home against the Utes. Xavier is going to be all business when they take the floor here, as they come in looking to snap a 2-game losing streak, which saw them lose at Baylor 61-76 and at Colorado 66-68. Baylor is an elite team and Colorado is one of the toughest places to play. Look for the Musketeers at home to return to the form that saw them open up the season 7-0.

Utah on the other hand is a team that I think is still getting some love for what they did a year ago, when they finished up 27-9 and 2nd in the Pac-12. The Utes only returned 2 starters from that team and loss their most important player in big man Jakob Poeltl. So far Utah has played a cupcake schedule, which has allowed them to jump out to a 6-1 record. The only decent team they played was Butler and they lost to them on their home floor by 9-points. It's also worth pointing out that Utah has yet to play a game on the road or on a neutral court and it's not easy playing that first true road game, especially for an inexperienced team going up against an elite team like Xavier who is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Take Xavier!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Wisconsin -

I'm going to back the Badgers as a small road favorite against in-state rival Marquette. Wisconsin's only two losses have come against a couple of elite teams in Creighton and North Carolina. While the Golden Eagles are a solid team, they are not on the same level of those two teams. Marquette's two toughest games this season were against Michigan and Pittsburgh and they lost both of those, losing by 18 to the Wolverines, who are not in the same class as the Badgers in the Big Ten.

This is also a big revenge spot for Wisconsin, as they haven't forgot about a 55-57 loss at home to Marquette last year. A game where they beat themselves by shooting a mere 36.4% from the field and only got to the free throw line 4 times. I look for Marquette to be the team struggling to find their shot in this one, as Wisconsin can really get after you defensively, as they come in allowing just 59.1 ppg and are holding opponents to 40.1% from the field.

While the Golden Eagles are 5-0 at home this season, they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning record and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams who are efficient offensively, making 45% or more of their attempts from the field (Badgers are shooting 47.8% on the season). Take Wisconsin!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks -

I'll gladly back the Bucks at home against the slumping Hawks. Atlanta was able to snap a 7-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at home against the Heat, but that's nothing to get excited about, as Miami was missing half their roster. The Hawks are now just 2-10 in their last 12 after starting out the season 9-2. While Atlanta is trending down, Milwaukee comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Bucks have won 5 of 6, with the only loss coming against the Spurs at home by a single point. Milwaukee bounced back two nights later and defeated the Blazers 115-107.

When things are going bad in Atlanta it's a good idea to keep fading them, as the Hawks are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 under head coach Budenholzer when they come into a contest having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Hawks are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing with 1 day of rest. It's also worth pointing out the Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in the series and the home team has covered 4 of the last 5. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

I like the value we are catching here with Orlando as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. This is a tough spot for Charlotte, who is in a bit of a letdown spot here off a big home win over the Pistons, where they were playing with revenge from a loss just 8 days ago and have an even bigger game on deck tomorrow night at Cleveland, where they will be playing with revenge from a hard fought 93-100 defeat at Cleveland earlier this season.

The Magic on the other hand are primed for a big bounce back performance following an ugly 2nd half in a 87-117 defeat at home to the Celtics last time out. Orlando was outscored 68-37 in the 2nd half after leading by 1-point at the half. Prior to that defeat, this Magic team was playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they had won 3 straight and 4 of 5 with the only loss being a 1-point defeat at Memphis. That stretch included a 12-point win at San Antonio and 6-point victory at Detroit.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December road games, spanning the last 2 seasons, and are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Charlotte is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Spurs/Bulls TNT ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

This Bulls team has been up and down this season and come into this game having lost 3 straight, so they are not getting a ton of love here against a Spurs team that is a perfect 13-0 SU on the road this season. I believe that has created some great value here with Chicago, who I'm confident is going to come out as motivated as they have all season in this spot. Not only are the Bulls looking to snap their losing streak, but this is a prime time home game on TNT against an elite team. This is a game Chicago will use as a measuring stick, much like they did in their last win in a 111-105 win at home over the Cavaliers as a 1.5-point dog.

The big problem for the Bulls of late has been their production from their reserves and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Doug McDermott and Michael Carter-Williams. While Carter-Williams is likely still a couple weeks from returning, there's a good chance McDermott is available tonight, as they recalled him last night from the D-League. While Chicago could be getting a key piece back, there's a decent chance the Spurs are going to be without starting point guard Tony Parker for this one. This is also a tough spot for San Antonio, playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days.

Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 of their last 5, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games played on Thursday. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies -

I like the value here with Memphis, who continues to be undervalued against the spread here of late. The Grizzlies come in having won 4 straight 11 of 14 overall. The reason we are getting value, is they are missing key players like Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis and Vince Carter, but they have a number of guys step up.

I like their chances of adding to their recent run here at home, where they are a solid 8-4 to open the season. Portland is a team a lot of people were high on, but have not been playing well. They had their 3-game winning streak snapped last night in a 107-115 loss at Milwaukee, as their defensive woes continued to rear their ugly head. Hard to see a big effort defensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Grizzlies, who haven't forgot about an earlier 94-100 loss at home to the Blazers back in early November. Portland is just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100+ in their previous game, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 on the road, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. Take Memphis!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton -

I'll gladly lay this small number on the Bluejays against the Cornhuskers. While Creighton comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, I don't think people realize how well this team is playing. The Bluejays are 8-0 and have more than proven themselves against some quality opponents. They beat a very good Wisconsin team by 13 at home and followed it up with 3 straight non-conference wins over Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss all by at least 9 points.

Nebraska is a decent team and are well coached under Tim Miles, but they are a young team that isn't on the same level as Creighton. The Cornhuskers lost their two best players from last year in Shavon Shields and Andrew White III, who combined averaged 33.4 ppg. They do have a solid player in Tai Webster, but you need a compliment of players who can score to take down this Bluejays squad, which has 6 players averaging 8 or more points per game, including 19.4 ppg from top scorer Marcus Foster.

The most amazing stat with Creighton is their shooting to start the season. The Bluejays have shot at least 50% from the field in all 8 of their games this season. Nebraska, which relies on their defense, simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this game close. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Illinois State -

I have no problem laying this small number on the Redbirds against the Golden Hurricane. Illinois State has jumped out to a 4-2 record and their two losses have come on the road against TCU (71-80) and Murray State (70-73). Both of which they could have easily won, as they had the lead at the half in both games. I look for the Redbirds to come out all business here looking to get that first road win. Keep in mind Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley and has the potential to overtake Wichita State for the top spot in the conference.

As for Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane come in 3-3 and have not been all that impressive so far. Their 3 wins are against New Orleans, Oregon State and Oral Roberts. They just lost 62-72 at Arkansas-Little Rock last time out and earlier this season lost at home to Jacksonville State 73-84. The loss that really stands out to me is a 53-80 defeat at Wichita State, who I mentioned is not that much better than this Illinois State team. Let's also not forget this Golden Hurricane squad lost a ton from last year's 20-win season and are expected to finish in the bottom 4 of the American Athletic. Take Illinois State!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Nuggets -

I like the value here with Denver as a short road favorite against a Nets team that has really struggled to be competitive of late. Brooklyn is a mere 1-10 in their last 11 and all 10 losses came by at least 5 points, with the majority coming by double-digits. So while the Nuggets aren't a great team, this is an opponent they can take advantage of. We should also see a big effort here from Denver, who comes in off a much-needed 106-98 win at Philadelphia.

Beating up on road teams that don't play defense has been a specialty of the Nuggets over the last few years. Denver is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams who are allowing 103+ points/game. Sure, Brooklyn can score, but that also favors the Nuggets against the spread, as they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who are scoring 103+ points/game.

It's also worth pointing out the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 or more, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-15 ATS in their last 18 after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Take Denver!

4* NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Hornets -

Charlotte will be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Pistons, as they get a chance at some big time revenge against the Pistons. These two teams just recently played in Charlotte on 11/29 (8 days ago) and Detroit rolled the Hornets 112-89. What will get overlooked by the public in that loss, is the fact that Charlotte was playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th game in 5 nights, while the Pistons came in a full 2 days of rest.

This time it's the Hornets who have the scheduling edge. Charlotte had yesterday off and are playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days. Detroit on the other is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after a huge home game last night against division rival Chicago and it will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets are finally healthy again and should get back to the form that had them open the season 6-1.

Hornets are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 when revenging a loss of 10 or more opponents, while the Pistons are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and a mere 4-8 SU & ATS on the road this season. Take Charlotte!

5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value here with Boston laying a short number here on the road against the Magic. The Celtics could be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas, but are well equipped to play without him, as Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley can all bring the ball up the court if needed.

Orlando comes in having won 3 straight, but two of those wins came against bad team in the 76ers and Wizards and the other was against the Pistons in a huge flat spot after a long road trip and big game against the Bulls on deck. Now it's the Magic who are in a flat spot, as they just played 5 straight on the road and have to return home on no rest after playing last night in Washington.

While Orlando is poised for a bad showing, we should get a strong effort here from the Celtics off a 1-point loss at Houston. Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games since early November and are 4-1 ATS in L5 off a loss. They are also a solid 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS (5-1 L6)  on the road, while the Magic are just 4-6 SU and 2-7 ATS at home this season. Celtics are also a solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Take Boston!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER

I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games.

Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road.

OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Evansville -

The Purple Aces are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Falcons. Evansville comes into this one with some confidence, as they just knocked off Boise State 72-67 at home on Saturday. As for Bowling Green, they find themselves in a tough spot here, as they just played on Sunday at Cincinnati in an ugly 56-85 loss to the Bearcats. The Falcons are now 0-3 in true road games this season, as they lost at Oakland and South Dakota earlier this season.

Evansville is a perfect 4-0 at home with a couple of solid wins over Boise State and Morehead State, as well as two blowout wins over inferior opponents in Alcorn State (82-59) and Wabash (83-39). It's also worth pointing out that the Purple Aces have played the much tougher schedule to this point, which only adds more value here with this small line.

I look for Evansville's defense to be the difference in this one. The Purple Aces are only giving up 64.1 ppg (55.2 ppg at home) and are holding opponents to just 40.2% shooting (34.7% at home). Bowling Green is only shooting 40.0% from the field on the season and come in off a horrible shooting performance at Cincinnati, as they hit just 36.8% from the field. Take Evansville!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Ball State -

These two teams come in with identical records at 4-4, but it's pretty clear who the better team is in this one. Ball State comes in off a bad loss at home to IUPUI, but the other 3 defeats have all come against quality opponents in Indiana State, Alabama and Valparaiso. This is a huge bounce back spot for the Cardinals and there's added incentive here with revenge from last year's 53-54 heartbreaking loss at Bradley.

The Braves finished just 5-27 last year, as they sent out one of the youngest rosters in college basketball history with 10 freshman, 1 sophomore and 1 senior. They are still a very young team and should continue to struggle on the road. Last time out they lost 69-91 at home to Nevada as a mere 6-point dog. In that game Bradley allowed the Wolf Pack to shoot 55.6% from the field. That's a bad sign for the Braves against a very efficient Ball State offense, that is shooting 47.1% from the field and 38.1% from behind the 3-point line on the season.

Bradley is just 16-38 ATS in their last 54 as a road dog of 7 to 12.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Ball State!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. The Bucks come into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Milwaukee has won 4 straight, which includes a 118-101 blowout win at home over the Cavaliers. I expect to see that same intensity when the Bucks take the floor here against the Spurs.

San Antonio comes in having won 11 of their 12 games, but are not blowing teams out like they have in years past. Out of those 11 wins, only one of them came by double-digits and that was a mere 12-point win at Washington. This has also been a very favorable stretch for the Spurs, as they haven't faced a lot of good teams during their recent run. I think Milwaukee is not only capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but can certainly win this game outright.

Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Milwaukee!

4* UConn/Syracuse ATS No Brainer on UConn +

It's been a disappointing start to say the least for the Huskies, who are just 3-4 and have yet to cover a spread (0-5). They have started to play better basketball of late, but are clearly way undervalued right now. They recently only lost by 10-points on a neutral court against an Oregon team that a lot of people think is capable of winning it all, so that a good sign that things are getting better.

Syracuse is 5-2, but they haven't been all that great either. Their 5 wins are against Colgate, Holy Cross, Monmouth, South Carolina State and North Florida. When actually tested against a quality opponent, they have struggled, losing 50-64 as a 8.5-point favorite against South Carolina and 60-77 at Wisconsin as a mere 6-point dog. It's not like the Huskies don't have talent and this is certainly a game they can win outright.

Huskies are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 off a close win by 3-points or less and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less. Take Connecticut!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

Great price to back Orlando here against the Pistons. This is a bit of a flat spot for Detroit, who have had just one day off following a big 4-game road trip and have a big division game on deck against the Bulls Tuesday. I believe there's value here due to the fact that Detroit won and covered each of their last 3. Keep in mind the Pistons were only a 4-point home favorite against the Magic earlier this season.

Orlando comes in just 2-5 in their last 7, but both wins have come in their last 3 games. They have also been playing better than their record would suggest during this stretch. Their largest loss during this stretch is just 8-points, with 4 of the 5 defeats coming by 5 points or less. The Magic did lose that earlier meeting and will want revenge against the Pistons.

Detroit is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and the Magic are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 road games in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Late Night Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Blazers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Portland Saturday night between the Heat and Blazers. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams early on this season, as they come into this one allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, this is not a good spot for the Heat and the effort needed to play well defensively. Miami will be playing their 3rd straight road games in 4 days and 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. It's about as tough of a road slate as you will find, especially playing their last two at Utah and Denver on back-to-back nights and then having to turn around in play in Portland.

The defense has already showed signs of slipping here lately, as they have allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 8. Hard to see them slowing down a potent Portland offense on the road, as the Blazers come in averaging 113.3 ppg at home and have failed to eclipse to the 100-point mark just twice all season. The Blazers are also awful defensively, as they have only held two opponents under the century mark, giving up 100+ in each of their 14 games. Miami's offense has scored 100+ in 4 straight, so they are in good form and should have no problem making it 5 in a row. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +

Really like the value we are getting with the Sycamores in this one. Indiana State comes into this game with a 3-4 record, but have played a brutal schedule early and have more than proven themselves against some really good teams. That includes a 71-73 loss to Iowa State, a game they arguably should have won. They also have a 3-point loss to Stanford, 3-point loss to Quinnipiac and 2-point defeat at Northern Illinois. That's 4 losses by a combined 10 points.

Not only is this a game they can keep close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Utah State is 4-3, but the 4 wins have come against UC-Irvine, New Jersey Tech, Bristol and Idaho State. Not exactly anything to get excited about. Their true colors started to shine when they took a step up in competition, as they lost by 21 to Purdue, 24 to Texas Tech and 14 to BYU. Keep in mind this is an Aggies team that returned just one starter from last year's squad, which finished T-8th in the MWC with a conference record of just 7-11. Take Indiana State!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Nets +

Big revenge spot for Brooklyn and we are getting great value here with them catching near double-digits. The Nets will take on the Bucks in Milwaukee after the two just played in Brooklyn on Thursday. The Bucks took that one 111-93 behind an uncharacteristic hot shooting from long distance. Milwaukee went 15-34 (44.1%) from 3-point range. Well above their season averages, as they are only making 9 3-pointers a game and shooting just 34.4% from behind the arc on the season.

Milwaukee is clearly playing better basketball right now, but they are simply way overvalued in this spot. The Bucks have won 3 straight and will find it hard to get motivated to play a bad Brooklyn team for the 2nd time in 3 nights. Keep in mind that while Milwaukee is 6-4 at home, they are actually getting outscored on average on their home floor this season (103.2-104.0).

The Bucks are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after 3 or more consecutive wins and a mere 3-17 ATS in their last 20 home games after 2 or more straight up wins. Take Brooklyn!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Iowa -

This is a great spot to jump on the Hawkeyes at home. Iowa should be a much bigger favorite here, but aren't getting a ton of love after dropping 3 straight and sitting at 3-4 on the season. The thing is, Iowa has played a brutal schedule to start as their 4 losses have come against Seton Hall, Virginia, Memphis and Notre Dame. All teams I think will be in the field for the NCAA Tournament.

This is a statement game for the Hawkeyes, who simply can't afford another loss and they should be able to have their way against an inferior Nebraska-Omaha squad that comes in with an identical 3-4 record, despite playing a much easier schedule. This is a team that lost by 13 at home against Rice as a 4.5-point favorite and gave up a 100 points in the process. They also recently allowed 94 points at Eastern Michigan in a 17-point defeat. The Hawkeyes have the offensive fire-power to exploit them and will bring the energy on defense to turn this into a blowout. Take Iowa!

5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Nuggets -

This is an ideal spot to back Denver at home against the Rockets. You might be asking yourself why Houston is a dog against a team that has 5 fewer wins them after they just knocked off the Warriors last night in Golden State. The answer is this this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rockets. It was going to be hard enough bouncing back from that game against the Warriors, but add in the fact that it took double-overtime and they simply aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Nuggets.

Only adding value is that Denver is one of the more difficult places to play in the second leg of a back-to-back, as the thin air only makes it that much harder for teams to play well when fatigued. It wouldn't shock me if Houston decided to just throw in the towel here and rest some players, as Harden, Anderson and Ariza all logged at least 43 minutes last night. Even Eric Gordon off the bench put in 39 minutes. Whether they play or not, I look for Denver to win here comfortably.

The Nuggets haven't played up to their potential early on, as they are just 7-11, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Denver is finally starting to get healthy. I've also really been impressed with rookie reserve Jamal Murray, who just took down the Rookie of the Month honors in the west.

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 or more points in 5 straight games. Take Denver!

4* NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Wolves +

I really like the Timberwolves in this spot. Minnesota just lost at home to New York on Tuesday 104-106, as they two play a home-and-home set. There's almost always value in the team that lost the first meeting in these home-and-home deals and it comes down to motivation. Minnesota is going to be out for revenge and will put everything they have into winning this game, while the Knicks will find it difficult to get up for a team they just beat, especially when it's a sub-par team like the Timberwolves.

There were plenty of positives in the loss for Minnesota on Tuesday. The biggest being the ease of which Karl Anthony Towns scored a career-high 47 points to go along with 18 rebounds and 3 blocks. New York had no answer for the big man the first time around and I don't see it being any different in the second meeting. The big difference in the game was 3-point shooting, as the Knicks poured in 13 3-pointers to the Timberwolves 4. I look for a more even go of things in the long-distance shooting this time around and for Minnesota to leave here with a victory.

Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games when revenging a loss and 17-4 ATS in this spot when they allowed 100 or more points in defeat. Timberwolves have also been great at covering on the road when not playing with revenge, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

I got no problem laying a big number on the Jazz at home against the Heat tonight. Miami comes in off an impressive 106-98 win at Denver last night, yet are getting double-digits? That really tells you all you need to know about how bad a spot this is for the Heat. It's hard enough playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. It will be extremely difficult for Miami, who is short-handed right now with Josh Richardson, Justice Winslow and Dion Waiters all sidelined. On top of that, there arguably isn't a tougher back-to-back road slate than going from the thin air of Denver to the thin air of Utah.

We are also backing a Jazz team that has been absolutely rolling of late. Utah has won 4 straight. All 3 wins at home during this stretch have come by at least 19 points. They beat Denver 108-83, Atlanta 95-68 and Houston 120-101. Keep in mind Utah is finally getting healthy and this a team that I had pegged to be one of the 4 best teams in the west. They already won 102-91 at Miami earlier this season and they are one of the few teams that really matches up well with the Heat. Miami's best player is Whiteside and Utah has arguably the best counter to him inside in Gobert, who is an absolute beast on the defensive side of the ball.

Jazz are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when playing against a team with a losing record, while the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Utah!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa State -

I got no problem laying this number with the Cyclones at home on Thursday against the Bearcats. This Iowa State team was just tested in their 3-games in Florida against Indiana State, Miami and Gonzaga. They escaped with a 73-71 win over an underrated Sycamores squad, crushed the Hurricanes 73-56 and came up just short against a top level Gonzaga team in a 71-73 defeat. Now they return home to Hilton Coliseum, where they are nearly unbeatable, as they have gone 60-5 at home over the last 4 seasons.

The Bearcats come in at 5-1, but have played a soft schedule early. Their 5 wins are against Brown, Albany, Penn State, Samford, and Lipscomb. The lone lost was a neutral site game against Rhode Island by 5. While Rhode Island is a decent team, they aren't on the same level as the Cyclones. It's also worth pointing out that Cincinnati could be without their best player in Gary Clark, who is the heart and soul of this team. He's questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, I don't think the Bearcats defense will be good enough on the road against an explosive ISU offense that is putting up 88.8 ppg.

Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch, while the Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a close loss by 3-points or less. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS No Brainer on St. Mary's -

I'm a big fan of this St. Mary's team, who comes into this game 5-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country. The Gaels come in off a 76-63 win over UAB on a neutral court and won 61-57 at Dayton earlier this season, which is a really impressive win. The Flyers are the favorites to win the A-10 and are a much more talented team than the Cardinal.

Stanford is 7-1 and fresh off back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Seton Hall in Orlando, but they also lost 53-67 against a pretty mediocre Miami team. This St. Mary's team is without a doubt the best team the Cardinal have played so far this season and I think they struggle to make this game competitive. Stanford isn't a great offensive team, as they come in shooting just 43.5% from the field on the season and are only averaging 4 made 3-pointers per game. The Cardinal are solid defensively, giving up 63.8 ypg, but so are the Gaels, who are only giving up 61.0 ppg. The big difference is St. Mary's is much more potent offensively, averaging 81.8 ppg, shooting 52.8% from the field and averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game.

The Gaels are 33-18 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more points. Take St. Mary's!

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Week on Bulls -

This is going to seem like a big number for Chicago to be laying at home against a Lakers team that has surprised early this season, but the situation calls for a blowout win by the Bulls. Chicago is rested up and ready to get back to action after a 4-day break following their 6-game road trip. Los Angeles on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played in New Orleans last night. This is also the Lakers 3rd game in the last 4 days and 6th in the last 9.

LA has been trending in the wrong direction of late, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7. It doesn't figure to get much better going forward, as the Lakers continue to be without starting point guard D'Angelo Russell. They also figure to be without Nick Young, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. It also wouldn't come as a surprise if they decided to sit out Julius Randle in a back-to-back scenario, as he just returned from a knee injury.

These two teams recently played in Los Angeles and the Bulls won 118-110, which I think is a good sign of what's to come here. Keep in mind Chicago won by 8 playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, which was also their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in a 4 day stretch. With the Lakers injuries and the Bulls strong play at home (4-1), this should get ugly in a hurry. Take Chicago!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington +

Really like the value and spot here with Washington as a near double-digit road dog against TCU. These two teams just played each other this past Saturday in Las Vegas and the Horned Frogs won that contest 93-80. That result is clearly playing into this line, as TCU was a mere 1.5-point favorite on the neutral setting. Now they are laying 7-points more at home and I don't think it's justified. In fact, I think the Huskies have a great shot at winning this game outright.

While the Horned Frogs won by 13, it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Washington was only down 2-points with less than 13 minutes to play. Things took a turn for the worse down the stretch run, as Huskies leading scorer Markelle Fultz (23.0 ppg) fouled out with 7 minutes left to play. At the time of fouling out, Fultz had already scored 27 points, going 8 of 13 from the field and 10 of 12 from the free throw line. It's also worth pointing out that the Horned Frogs got off to a great start in that game, jumping out to a 19-4 lead, which is not something they are likely to replicate, even with this meeting at home.

Washington is 25-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent by 10 or more under current head coach Lorenzo Romar. We also find a great system in play favoring a fade of the Horned Frogs. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off 6 or more consecutive wins and are playing their 3rd game in a week are just 9-31 (22%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Washington!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

Big revenge spot for the Pelicans and I expect them to deliver with a blowout win at home against the Lakers. New Orleans hosted the Lakers back on 11/12 and were embarrassed in a 99-126 defeat. One thing to keep in mind with that defeat is Pelicans star Anthony Davis missed a key portion of that game. With the Lakers up just 63-62 in the 3rd quarter, Davis was sidelined with a back injury. LA immediately went on a 14-0 run and never looked back.

Since that loss the Pelicans have gone 5-3 with a perfect 4-0 mark at home. The return of point guard Jrue Holiday has this team playing like the playoff contender we expected. This is a statement game for New Orleans and while the Lakers are playing well, most of their success has come at home (3-5 away). LA simply doesn't play any defense on the road, as they come in giving up 113.0 ppg away from home. That's a big problem here, as the Pelicans are scoring 110.7 ppg at home. Take New Orleans!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Hornets -

I like the value here with Charlotte laying a small number at home against the Pistons. We are getting a shorter line than we normally would, due to the Hornets playing on no rest after playing last night in Memphis. The key here is Charlotte cruised to a win, beating the Grizzlies 104-85 and were able to avoid playing their stars big minutes. The Hornets have now won 2 straight and I see now reason for a letdown here, as they had gone just 2-6 in their previous 8.

Detroit comes in off a 88-106 loss at Oklahoma City as a mere 4.5-point dog, as the Pistons road woes continued. They are now just 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS on the highway this season and their struggles away from home can be pinpointed to their defense. Detroit is allowing just 97.1 ppg on the season, but are giving up a staggering 105.0 ppg on the road. Charlotte doesn't get the credit for being a great offensive team, but they can light up the scoreboard. The Hornets are averaging 106.1 ppg at home and 105.7 ppg overall.

Charlotte has also been a great team to back off a blowout win, as the Hornets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after a win by 15 or more points. Take Charlotte!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Davidson -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Bears. Davidson is 4-1 and have really responded well to their ugly early season loss to Clemson. The Wildcats followed up that loss with a 70-55 win over Missouri, 68-60 win against Arizona State and 79-57 blowout win at home against Charlotte. Mercer is 4-2 and have lost both games against respectable opponents, losing 54-76 to Florida and 63-65 to Akron.

The Bears are simply outclassed in this one. Davidson is just starting to play up to their potential. Keep in mind this is a team that returned 4 starters from a team that went 20-13 last year and closed out the season 8-3 over their last 11 games. Doing so despite some key injuries and struggles defensively (78.1 ppg, 304th). The Wildcats will have the two best players on the floor in senior guard Jack Gibbs (21.0 ppg) and junior forward Peyton Aldridge (19.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg).

Davidson's defense has been much better so far this season, allowing just 68.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. On top of that, Mercer isn't a great offensive team, averaging just 68.7 ppg. It's also worth pointing out that the Bears live and die by the 3-point shot, averaging 22 attempts a game. That plays into the strength of the Wildcats defense, which is only giving up 30.8% shooting from long-distance and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against teams who average 21 or more 3-point shots a game. Take Davidson!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Northwestern -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a small home favorite against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest has the better overall record at 5-1, but their 5 wins have all come against sub-par competition. Their only game against a respectable opponent was Villanova and they lost 77-96.

Northwestern has the worse record at 4-2, but have been the more impressive team early on. The Wildcats lost by just 2-points on the road (68-70) to a very good Butler team and had another heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame (66-70) on a neutral site. Sandwiched between those two defeats was a dominant 77-58 win over Texas as a 4.5-point favorite.

Wake Forest is a program headed in the right direction under head coach Danny Manning, but they still got a ways to go. Keep in mind they were just 11-20 last year and lost their best player in Devin Thomas. The Deacons were just 3-9 in road games last year and I expect those road woes to continue this season. Take Northwestern!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Jazz -

I like the value here with Utah as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. The Jazz have bounced back from their 4-game mini slump with back-to-back blowout wins over the Nuggets (108-83) and Hawks (95-68). As you can see, the defense was exceptional in both of those games and I look for them to keep it going on that side of the ball against  Minnesota team that has struggled offensively of late. The Timberwolves scored 102 points in their last game against the Warriors, but prior to that had failed to reach the 100-pt mark in 4 straight.

If the Jazz can keep Minnesota's offense in check, they should have no problem here winning and doing so without much problem. The Timberwolves are giving up 103.5 ppg and opponents are shooting 47% against them. Another key here is that Minnesota isn't a great 3-point shooting team and that's only going to make it that much harder for them to score, as the Jazz have an elite interior defense anchored by big man Rudy Gobert.

Utah also has a nice scheduling advantage here. They will be playing with a full 2-days of rest. While Minnesota was off yesterday, they will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Jazz are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 against a team with a losing record and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road favorite. Take Utah!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Knicks OVER

These two should have no problem eclipsing the total in this one. Oklahoma City comes in having scored 100+ points in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 11 overall. It's no secret that the Thunder go as Russell Westbrook goes and this is an ideal matchup for him, as Derrick Rose is not a defensive minded player and will get exposed whenever the two are matched up. The Knicks also don't have anyone else they can go to to keep Westbrook in check.

Westbrook on full go will have the Thunder playing at a fast pace here and force the Knicks to play up to their tempo. The key here is that New York is clicking offensively right now. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have allowed 100+ in 5 of those. It's also worth noting that the defensive intensity doesn't figure to be there for either side in a non-conference game with both sides playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

OVER is 5-1 in OKC's last 6 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. OVER is also 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 when facing a team that scored 100+ points in their last game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night ATS Bailtout on Hawks -

Atlanta is showing some decent value here as a relatively small road favorite against the Lakers. The Hawks will be extremely motivated for this matchup, as they were embarrassed last time out at Utah, losing 68-95, giving them 4 losses in their last 5 games. With a road game against the Warriors on deck, there's a little extra emphasis on getting a win here.

The Lakers have been a pleasant surprise early on, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and it's going to be tough to regain that early form with one of their most important pieces sidelined in DeAngelo Russell, who is right there with Lou Williams for the team lead in scoring at 16.1 ppg. He also leads the team in assists at 4.8 apg. There's also a chance they will be without talented forward Julius Randle, who has missed the last 2 and wasn't able to complete practice on Saturday.

We also find a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 35-10 (78%) ATS  in non-conference games since 1996 with a perfect 10-0 ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Take Atlanta! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Kings -

I like the value we are getting with the Kings laying a relatively small number here on the road against the Nets. Brooklyn was a covering machine to start the season, but playing hard and losing is only fun for so long. The Nets have completely fell off of late, as they come in riding a 6-game losing streak. All 6 losses have come by at least 7 points and 5 of those by at least 18.

I believe we are simply getting value here due to the fact that the Kings are just 6-10 overall. The key here is Sacramento has some talent to work with and have been playing much better of late with 2 wins in their last 3 games, beating both the Raptors and Thunder at home. This is a big road trip for the Kings and they are going to want to get it started off with a victory and I don't see the Nets putting up much of a fight here.

Brooklyn is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off 3 straight losses by 10 or more points. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their lat 5 off a SU loss. Take Sacramento!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Valparaiso -

I like the value here with Valparaiso laying less than 10 at home against the Cardinals. The Crusaders come in at 5-1 with their only loss being a true road game at Oregon, who is one of the elite teams in the country. They bounced back from that defeat with a 68-60 win over Alabama as a 3.5-point dog and 92-89 upset of BYU as a 6.5-point dog.

Ball State is simply not on the same level as Valparaiso and that's evident by their performance against a couple of common opponents. While the Crusaders beat the Crimson Tide by 8, the Cardinals lost by 18 at Alabama. Valpo also has a 78-58 blowout win over Coppin State, while Ball State barely won 78-77 over Coppin State.

Crusaders are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after winning 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog. Take Valparaiso!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Smash on New Mexico +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Lobos as a 4.5-point dog against the Flyers. New Mexico is loaded this year with 4 starters back including one of the best the MWC has to offer in Elijah Brown. They are a legit threat to win the MWC and I like their chances of winning outright here against Dayton.

The Flyers are getting a lot of love coming into the season, but are just 3-2 and recently lost to a very mediocre Nebraska team. New Mexico is the much better offensive team, as they come in 39th in scoring at 85.0 ppg. Dayton on the other hand is T-105th at 78.4 ppg The Lobos are also the better rebounding team and do a better job of sharing the basketball.

Dayton is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 after a SU win and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New Mexico!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets -

This is all about the situation and it heavily favors the Hornets. These two teams played last night in New York, with the Knicks winning 113-111 in overtime. Now they head to Charlotte for a rematch and the Hornets are clearly going to be the more motivated team after losing yesterday.

The Knicks come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but all 5 of those wins came at home. The lone loss was on the road to a bad Wizards team by 7-points. New York has really struggled to play well away from home, as they are just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS on the highway this season. I know the Hornets comes in having lost 4 straight, but this is a much better team than their recent form would suggest. This is a huge statement game for the Hornets and I expect them to deliver with a double-digit win. Take Charlotte -6!

4* NCAAB Afternoon ATS No Brainer on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes were outclassed in yesterday's 41-74 loss to Virginia and as a result are undervalued here against Memphis, who lost to Providence by 9 and the Friars are way down from last year's squad that featured the likes of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Memphis might have the better record at 4-1, but that's only because they played 4 cupcake games to start the season. Iowa is 3-2, but both losses are against teams I believe will be tournament bound in Seton Hall and Virginia.

Note that these two teams have already played two common opponents in the early going and it's pretty clear the Hawkeyes are the better team. Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84, while Memphis only beat them by a final of 99-86. Iowa defeated UTRGV 95-67, while Memphis won by a final of 94-75. This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes and a big bounce back spot after the embarrassing loss to Virginia. Take Iowa!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hornets/Knicks OVER

New York has got something going of late, as they come in having won 4 of their last 5. A big part of that is their offense is clicking. The Knicks have scored at least 104 points in 5 straight games and have connected on 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. They should be able to keep it going here against a Hornets team that has lost their edge on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing 109.8 ppg over their last 5 games and twice during this stretch have allowed 119 or more.

The key here is the Hornets should have no problem keeping up with the Knicks on the offensive side of the ball. Charlotte comes in averaging 105.4 ppg on the season and have hit 114 or more in 3 of their last 5. The only two times they have failed to score at least 100 points in their last 9 games were against the Cavs and Grizzlies. New York doesn't figure to be able to add their name to the list, as they enter ranked 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and are allowing 105.9 ppg.

I also think there's some extra factors favoring a high-scoring game. I don't see the intensity being their on defense after the holiday break yesterday. On top of that, these two teams will face off again tomorrow in Charlotte. OVER is 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings overall and a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Blowout on Northern Illinois -

We are getting some great value here on the Huskies at home against Elon. Northern Illinois fallowed up a loss at CS-Northridge with a shocking 64-68 defeat at home to Cal-Poly-SLO on Wednesday as a 10-point favorite. I expect an all out effort here from the Huskies and it's not like this team doesn't have some talent. Keep in mind they beat a talented Indiana State team at home earlier this season, who just nearly upset Iowa State in their last game.

This is a Northern Illinois team that returned 3 players who averaged double-figures in scoring, plus got back their leading scorer from 2013-14 in Dontel Highsmith, who missed the lat two years. Elon comes in at 3-1, but have played a favorable schedule to start, as they have been favored in all 3 games with a line posted. The Fighting Phoenix aren't expected to be a factor in the CAA, as most have them picked to finish in the bottom half of the league.

Even with the loss last time out, the Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Northern Illinois!

4* NBA Late Night Total Annihilator on Thunder/Kings OVER

I look for the Kings and Thunder to cruise past this total tonight. Oklahoma City has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games and that trend doesn't figure to come to an end with the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. Especially against a Kings team that is clicking offensively right now. Sacramento comes in averaging 110.5 ppg over their last 4 games.

It's not just the Kings that will be filling up the stat sheet, Oklahoma City has scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8 games and come in averaging 112.3 ppg over their last 4. They shouldn't have any problem keeping the offense going, as Sacramento ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 12-2 in OKC's last 14 road games against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 100+ points last time out. We also have a strong system in play, as the OVER is 63-28 (69%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more, where the road team is coming in off a loss by 3-points or less and playing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER!

5* Wisconsin/N Carolina NCAAB No Limit Top Play on North Carolina -

I think this is a great spot to go against the Badgers, who come in off an impressive 73-57 win over Georgetown as a mere 5-point favorite. Not to take anything away from that win, but the Hoyas have been extremely inconsistent to start the year and certainly didn't look all that interested in playing that game. Wisconsin had a 50 to 21 edge in rebounds with a 20-1 edge on the offensive boards. That right there shows the lack of effort by Georgetown.

Either way, the Badgers aren't going to have that same luxury of dominating the board against the Tar Heels. North Carolina comes in averaging 48.3 rebounds/game and are averaging a +18 rebound margin on the season. With the extra possessions, that's really going to make it tough for the Badgers to keep pace offensively with this explosive Tar Heels offense that comes in averaging 96.5 ppg. It's not just the offensive side of the ball where UNC is playing well, they are only giving up 67.2 ppg, which is about 10 ppg fewer than what their opposition is averaging.

I see this as a similar matchup to Wisconsin's earlier 67-79 loss at Creighton, expect the Tar Heels are a much better team than Creighton. UNC clearly means business in this tournament, as they absolutely dominated Oklahoma State 107-75 last night as a mere 9-point favorite. Take North Carolina!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in having won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The key here is the 76ers have been able to win a few games against some bad teams. Their 3 wins are against the Wizards, Suns and Heat, who all currently sit with a mere 4-wins on the season.

Memphis might not be viewed as a top team right now, but the Grizzlies are currently sitting 4th in the west and come in playing their best basketball of the season. Memphis is riding a 5-game winning streak and 4 of the 5 wins have come on the road. They are getting it done with a dominant defensive effort, as they are allowing just 85.6 ppg over their last 5. The offense can be limited at time, but the 76ers are team they can exploit. Philadelphia has allowed 100+ points in 13 of their 14 games this season.

Last time out the Grizzlies won 105-90 as a 5.5-point dog at Charlotte. That sets them up in a very profitable system, as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 off an upset win by 15 or more points as a road dog. The Grizzlies are also team that has been a strong bet against bad teams, as they are 30-18 ATS in their last 48 against a team with a losing record. Take Memphis!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Smash on Hawks -

Atlanta is primed for strong showing at home, as they will be highly motivated off back-to-back road losses to the Hornets and Knicks. The Hawks haven't had much problem taking care of business at home, where they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS on the season. Atlanta is outscoring opponents on their home floor by an average of 10.0 ppg (112.4-102.4).

New Orleans has won two straight and are playing better since Jrue Holiday returned to action, but there's just not enough talent on this roster to take this team seriously. Especially on the road, where the Pelicans are just 1-5 to start the season. Last time on the highway, New Orleans lost by 7-points at Orlando and the Magic are no where close in terms of talent as the Hawks.

It's also worth pointing out that the Pelicans have been a great team to fade when playing on the road off a game where they covered the spread, as they are just 4-13 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Western Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Atlanta!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Akron -

This is a great spot to back the Zips at home, as they come in off a 88-41 blowout win over Radford, where they shot 56.6% from the field and connected on 13 3-pointers. When Akron gets going from the outside, they are difficult team to contain. The Zips were 2nd in the country a year ago with an average of 11.7 3-pointers made per game. Adding to this, is the fact that Akron is a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots, winning in this spot by an average of 10.0 ppg.

This isn't just a team that can beat you from the outside, Akron also returns 1st All-MAC center Isaiah Johnson, who averaged 13.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg, despite only starting 9 games. This Zips team is without question the class of the MAC conference and would have been in the NCAA Tournament a year ago had they not lost the title game of the MAC Tournament.

Georgia Southern is a solid team, but are just 1-2 to start the year, including an ugly 13-point loss last time out at Mercer. They have really struggled offensively in their two true road games, as they are shooting just 36.9% from the field away from home. The defense has also been an issue on the highway, as they are giving up 80.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Akron!