Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.

ASA play on LA Clippers (-) vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings recently beat this Clippers team in Los Angeles as a +4-point dog, 123-107. Prior to that meeting the Clippers had won two games against the Kings 119-99 and 131-117. In the Kings most recent win over the Clippers though, they were basically at full strength with Monk and Huerter both available. Those two combined for 27 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in that game. Both are out here with injuries and the Kings depth is a major concern. In their last five games the Kings have slipped in both offensive and defensive Net ratings and have a net differential of minus -1.1. The Clippers have run hot/cold in recent weeks and right now it looks like they are running hot with 3 straight wins, all on the road. In fact, the Clippers have won 5 straight away from home and 7 of their last eight on the road. This L.A. team has the 4th best average point differential on the road this season at +3.8PPG and hold a 25-14 SU road record. The Kings are below league average in home court point differential with a +1.4PPG average which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Both have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position, but the injury concerns for the Kings will be the difference here. The visitor has also covered 5 of the last six in this series. Lay it with the Clippers.

#663 ASA PLAY ON Georgia + the points over Seton Hall, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We like UGA’s success and path through this NIT much more than Seton Hall. The Bulldogs had to go on the road and beat both Wake Forest and Ohio State, 2 teams rated higher than Seton Hall in KenPom’s rankings, while the Pirates played all 3 NIT games at home. The average rating of the teams Seton Hall has played in the NIT is 82nd (all at home) while Georgia’s opponents have an average ranking of 44th and 2 of those games were on the road. We’d be a bit concerned if Georgia was playing another road game without much rest but that isn’t the case as they’ve had a full week off since beating Ohio State in Columbus. They won those 2 road games with starting center Tchewa out (8 PPG / 6 RPG) with an illness (played 5 minutes vs OSU and didn’t play vs WF) and he is back at full strength. The Dogs have been pretty solid away from home this year winning 7 games (away/neutral) while scoring 74.5 PPG and allowing 76.5 PPG. They do have a negative PPG margin away from home, but as you can see it’s close. Seton Hall has played only once away from home since March 2nd and that was in the Big East Tourney at MSG in New York City which is only 17 miles from campus. The Hall wasn’t great away from home this year scoring just 67 PPG while allowing 74.5 PPG and their shooting percentage dropped more than 5% on the road (42%). Georgia has been undervalued down the stretch covering 7 straight games and as a dog this year they are 12-8 ATS. We have this game power rated closer to pick-em so we’ll take the value with a surging Georgia team.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls + the points vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10 PM ET - We like the way the Bulls match up with the Timberwolves as they have the size and depth with Vucevic and Drummond to deal with Gobert and Reid in the paint. Chicago is the 10th best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA compared to the Timberwolves who rank 26th. The Wolves average 324.4 defensive rebounds per game, the Bulls average 32.6. Minnesota has won 4 straight games and are coming off a big win over the Nuggets a few nights back. The Bulls are off a tough loss to Brooklyn and have lost 4 of their last five but two of those came against the red hot Rockets and the Celtics. Chicago beat this Wolves team in early February by 6-points in OT. The Bulls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Minnesota. The T’Wolves have another big Western Conference game on deck versus the surging Rockets and may look past this Bulls team. The line is inflated and we will grab the value with the Bulls and the points.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Clemson + the points over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday night when they faced UNC. The Tide pulled out a tight 2 point win but the Heels shot just 38% overall vs a Crimson Tide defense that was rated by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 (104th in efficiency). The Heels attempted 11 more field goals and made 1 more FT but lost the game because of their poor shooting effort. Alabama shot 48% overall and 42% from beyond the arc and despite those shooting numbers which were much better than UNC’s their largest lead of the game was just 5 points. Bama is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and there is no way Clemson gets into a run and gun game with them. The Tigers are a slower paced team and have tamed a few other fast paced teams during this tourney. On Thursday they took down Arizona (fast paced and top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and led pretty much throughout. In fact, the Wildcats largest lead of the game was just 1 point. Prior to that Clemson rolled a very good Baylor team who ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency at the time. Their defense has been outstanding holding New Mexico to 56 points (Lobos average 81 PPG), Baylor to 64 points (Bears average 80 PPG), and Arizona to 72 points (Wildcats average 87 PPG). These 2 already met this season and Clemson beat Bama on the road by 8 points, one of only two home losses this year for the Tide. The Tigers have proven they can get it done away from home with 12 wins this season (road & neutral) including some very impressive wins @ Alabama, @ North Carolina, and @ Pitt. One of their road losses was a last second 1 point loss @ Duke in which the Devils made 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining to win. These 2 teams have the exact same 24-11 record with each facing top 20 strength of schedules. We have these 2 rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is with the dog. Take Clemson.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans. In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44-points, but it took him 44-shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here. Milwaukee’s recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the FT line compared to the Bucks 19. Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average +/- in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks have an overall losing ATS record on the road as a favorite at 12-15 but they do own a positive differential of +4.5PPG. Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home dog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9PPG. The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the 7th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season. Milwaukee is 8th in 3PT% offense, the Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense. Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th best in the NBA in FG% D allowing 46.9%. This line might be a little intimidating to you but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16-points here the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings over the Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams recently met on this court and the Mavs handed the Kings a 132-96 beatdown. Dallas had an unusually hot shooting night 55% from the field and 56% from Deep. The Kings had a horrible shooting night at 39% overall and 37% from the 3-point line. These two teams are shooting roughly 48% from the field for the season, so you can see the disparity in the last game compared to ‘average’ statistics. The Kings had beaten the Mavs twice this season prior to Tuesday’s game and we expect them to get immediate payback here. Sacramento is 19-10 SU coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +3.2PPG. Dallas is great as a road favorite but just 5-11 SU as an away underdog. Sacramento has a positive point differential at home, the Mavs have a negative differential on the road. Take the Kings here.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -3.5 over Duke, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is the type of team Duke will struggle with. The Cougs are an in your face defense that plays very physical. The rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed and 3rd in defensive turnover rate. This will be the best defense Duke has faced this season by quite a wide margin. UNC was the best defense (efficiency wise) in the ACC and they handled Duke twice fairly easily. The Heels don’t create turnovers however (outside the top 300). The ACC had one team rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate, Florida State, and in their game vs the Noles, Duke (finished 7th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate) turned the ball over on a whopping 25% of their possessions. Now they get a Houston defense that combines efficiency and turnover rate at the highest level. Duke rolled through their first 2 opponents, Vermont (13 seed) and JMU (12 seed), but they now take a huge step up in competition. Houston got their scare in the round of 32 topping a red hot Texas A&M team in OT. The Cougars led that game by 13 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before the Aggies made their crazy comeback. Much is made of Houston’s outstanding defense, but their offense ranks 14th in efficiency so this team is very balanced. They are 32-4 on the season facing the 22nd most difficult schedule (Duke has faced the 69th SOS) and only 1 of their 32 wins has come by less than 4 points. Duke has faced 3 games this season vs teams in the top 10 per KenPom and they are 0-3 SU in those games (Houston ranked #2). The Devils beat up on the teams they should but they tend to struggle vs high level teams. They are just 5-4 SU in Quad 1 games this season while Houston is 17-4 SU vs Quad 1 opponents. On the similar note, Duke is 0-2 ATS as a dog this season (losses vs UNC & Wake) and 0-4 ATS getting points the last 2 seasons. In regards to the NCAA tourney, Duke beats lower seeded teams in the Dance but when they step up, the struggle. IN fact the last time Duke beat a higher seed in the NCAA tourney was 1994! This veteran Houston team was ousted in the Sweet 16 last year and they are on a mission this season. It’s a semi home game for Houston (in Dallas), they are the better, more physical team and we like them to get the win and cover on Friday.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers over the LA Lakers, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers to bounce back here off a 26-point loss on Wednesday in Chicago to the Bulls. This is also a quick rematch as the Lakers recently beat the Pacers in L.A. 150-145. The Lakers are playing their 3rd straight road game and have won 5-straight games. Indiana has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +5.0PPG and owns a 21-15 SU record on their home court this season. The Pacers have done well when coming off a loss this season with a 21-11 SU record and a +3.0PPG average MOV in those games. The Lakers have had their struggles on the road this season with a 14-20 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -5.0PPG. The Lakers hold an advantage defensively with the 15th rated defensive efficiency rating compared to the Pacers who rank 25th. Offensively though the Pacers rank 2nd in OEFF, the Lakers are 16th. The Lakers fell into the trap of playing fast with the Pacers in the most recent meeting and when they do that here it won’t end well for them. Back the Pacers at home, off a loss, playing with revenge.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -4 over Alabama, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - UNC is the much more balanced team in this one ranking in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Bama has a great offense, their defense is by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Tide simply wasn’t playing well down the stretch and they’ve been fortunate to get to the Sweet 16. Since mid February they rank just 49th nationally in team efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and 163rd in defensive efficiency. UNC ranks 9th and 10th in the nation per those 2 metrics during that time period. Prior to the Big Dance, Alabama had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and one of their two wins during that stretch was in OT at home vs Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. In the Dance they opened with College of Charleston whose defense ranked outside the top 200 in eFG% and 3 point FG % allowed which matches up very poorly vs the Alabama offense (Bama shot 60% for the game). Even with that, C of C lost but put up nearly 100 points on Bama (109-96 final). Over the weekend they topped Grand Canyon in what was a close game throughout (CG led with 6:00 remaining in the game) despite the Antelopes missing 14 FT’s and making only 2 of their 20 three point attempts and hitting only 32% of their shots overall! UNC comes in off 2 easy wins including topping Michigan State, easily the best opponent either of these 2 have played in the Dance, by a final score of 85-69. MSU’s defense was playing fantastic leading into that game (7th nationally in defensive efficiency since mid February and 11th for the entire season) but the Heels ate them up for 85 points on 1.20 PPP. What are they going to do to a bad Bama defense? On offense the Tide don’t create turnovers but they thrive on offensive rebounding for 2nd chances. Versus Grand Canyon the corralled 43% of their misses giving them a number of 2nd chance points which gave them the edge along with CG’s terrible shooting night. That won’t happen here vs a great rebounding team in UNC who ranks 6th nationally in defensive rebounding. UNC was 14-6 SU this season in road/neutral games while Alabama had a losing record in that situation. We’ve been hoping that Alabama would make it here so we had a chance to fade them vs a high level opponent. Take North Carolina to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - More money and tickets have come in on the Bucks, yet the line has fluctuated in the direction of the Pelicans. Both teams are off disappointing losses as the Bucks lost at home to the Lakers after blowing a lead late in that game. The Pelicans lost a crucial home game to Oklahoma City as the Thunder shot 53% in a 7-point win. Both teams are great when coming off a loss as the Bucks are 17-8 SU in that situation, the Pelicans are 18-9 SU. Milwaukee is 17-18 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential at minus -0.2PPG. New Orleans is 20-14 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +5.4PPG. The Pelicans have been great against non-conference opponents with an 18-9 SU record and an average +/- of +7.7PPG. The Bucks versus the West is 15-12 SU +0.2PPG. We like the Pelicans here to get a win on their home floor.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -6 over VCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - VCU has made a very impressive run through the NIT to this point but this is where it ends. Not only has this team been on the road for 3 NIT games already (this will be the 4th), but if we go back to the A10 tourney (Brooklyn, NY) and the end of the regular season this will be the Rams 8th straight road game. Those games have been crammed into a short time period as well. In fact, since the start of the A10 tourney, this will be VCU’s 7th straight game away from home in just 15 days. In the NIT alone, they’ve already traveled to Philadelphia, then Tampa on Sunday, and now Salt Lake City where they’ll play in high altitude for the first time this season. Not ideal for a team that has played 7 games in 15 days. Utah, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd straight home game and just their 3rd game in 13 days since losing to Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney back on March 14th. VCU’s defense has carried them to this point holding Villanova & South Florida to 65 points or less but now they face a Utah offense that has scored 81 & 84 points in their 2 NIT games. At home the Utes are 16-2 on the year with 1 of those losses coming vs Sweet 16 participant Arizona and that loss was in triple OT. Utah hits over 49% of their shots and 39% of their 3’s at home while averaging 85 PPG. Tired legs made worse in high altitude for the Rams will be a problem both slowing down Utah’s offense along with trying to keep up and make shots on the other end. Lay it with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +1.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Mavs have a slight scheduling advantage here as both teams played last night but the Kings are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven nights. As we mentioned, Dallas is also off a game last night in Utah, but they had been off since the 21st prior. The Mavs are 21-12 ATS on the road this season and have been great playing without rest with an 8-3 ATS record and an average +/- of +3.3PPG. Sacramento on the other hand is 4-8 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. The Kings have beaten the Mavericks twice already this season so we know the Mavs will come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Sacramento is only 6-5 SU their last eleven games going into Monday night and two of those wins were against the Spurs and one versus the Grizzlies. The Mavericks are 4-2 SU their last six on the road heading into Monday night. Dallas owns the 7th best EFG% in the NBA since the All-Star break, the Kings are 12th. The road team has covered 6 of the last seven in this series and we are betting that trend continues here.

#609 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia +9 over Ohio State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has had an impressive run this far in the NIT beating Xavier at home and then topping Wake Forest (the highest rated team in the NIT per KenPom) on the road on Sunday. We’re a little concerned that the Dogs have to play 2 days later on the road again, but this is a deep team that ranks 77th in bench minutes which helps in this case. In Sunday’s win UGA played 9 players double digit minutes and only 1 logged 30+ minutes. Wake was without starting guard Sallis in that game which obviously helped, however the Dogs were at a disadvantage as well with starting center Tchewa who was sick on Sunday. They are hoping he’s back and ready on Tuesday @ OSU. The Buckeyes are a bit banged up themselves. New head coach Diebler, who had the interim tag removed last week, gave them a day off after beating Va Tech over the weekend to try and recover from some of their ailments. Their best player, PG and leader Thornton (16 PPG), took a shot to the leg in the Va Tech win and he is questionable here. OSU won and covered vs the Hokies but they weren’t overly impressive getting outshot percentage wise from the field and from 3 point land, however the Bucks made 29 FT’s to just 16 for VT. Despite the large disparity at the line, OSU only won the game by 8 points. Georgia has proven a decent road team with near .500 record in true road games (5-6 SU) and only 2 of those losses came by more than 9 points (OSU -8.5 in this one) vs NCAA tourney teams Auburn & Mississippi State. OSU has won their first 2 NIT games by 5 points vs Cornell and by 8 vs Va Tech with a +21 made FT disparity (combined in those 2 games) yet both were close. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - We have to back the Bucks here at home as a small favorite. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home and are 28-6 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.4PPG. Going back even further the Bucks are 61-17 SU at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +6.6PPG. With a low number on this game we need Milwaukee to win outright and they are finally healthy with Middleton, Giannis and Lillard on the floor. We are not blind to the fact that the Thunder are one of the best road teams in the NBA at 21-13 SU but we aren’t impressed with their last 3 wins on the road as they came against the Raptors, Grizzlies and Blazers. With the season winding down we like how the Bucks are playing and they look like a team that could contend to win it all this season. The Thunder are obviously very good but Milwaukee has owned them in recent years by winning 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight meetings.

#827 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* James Madison +7.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - Impressive performance by JMU on Friday dominating a good Wisconsin team despite the Dukes shooting only 41% overall and 29% from deep, well below their season averages. They were extremely aggressive defensively turning the Badgers over a season high 19 times from a team that averages less than 10 TO’s per game. The refs let them play in that game and if they do the same here, JMU has a very good shot at the straight up win. Duke doesn’t handle aggressive, physical play very well in our opinion. The 2 teams in the ACC who are similar to JMU as far as defensive turnover rate are FSU & Syracuse and Duke had 28 combined turnovers in their 2 games with those teams. On Friday the Blue Devils faced a Vermont team that rarely turns teams over (304th nationally) and they still turned the ball over 15% of their possessions. Vermont’s offense was terrible with a 0.78 PPP and they were dominated on the boards as we expected. Duke also made 18 more FT’s in the game which was obviously significant in a 17 point win. They won’t out physical JMU and their won’t be any domination on the glass for Duke in this game. Our one fear is the refs call this one tighter than the Wisconsin game (it is Duke and they tend to get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras) but even if that happens we still like James Madison to hang around. Duke wasn’t playing great entering this tourney (3-3 SU record their previous 6 games) but had a favorable draw with Vermont who isn’t overly physical and not a great shooting team this year. That’ changes on Sunday. JMU has only 3 losses this season and only one by more than 6 points. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - The Suns are finally healthy for the first time of the season and building continuity as they head to the playoffs. Phoenix has won 2 straight games handily with wins over the Hawks by 13 and the 76ers by 13-points. San Antonio is coming off a game against Memphis on Friday and they've struggled when playing without rest. The Spurs are 2-9 SU when playing without rest this season with a negative differential of minus -10.4PPG. When the Suns are facing a team and have a rest advantage they are 12-6 SU +4.9PPG. The last time the Suns were a road favorite they won by 22-points. Phoenix has two huge games looming against Denver and OKC so they had better win this game. We like the Suns in a big win here.

#796 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -6.5 over Oakland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We faded NC State on Thursday vs a very good Texas Tech team thinking they would have some lingering affects from their 5 games in 5 days ACC tourney run the previous weekend. Well they didn’t look sluggish as they rolled to a double digit win over the Red Raiders. NCSU now takes a big step down in competition from what they’ve been playing to this point. The Wolfpack have now won 6 straight games including wins over teams ranked 8th, 9th, 32nd, 71st and 86th per KenPom. They won all but 1 of those games by at least 8 points. Now they face an Oakland team ranked 130th and to put that in perspective that would put them as the 2nd worst team in the ACC ahead of only Louisville. We really respect the Grizzlies program and head coach Greg Kampe but they simply shot lights out from deep in their win over Kentucky. They hit nearly 50% of their triples and Jack Gohlke, who’s hitting 36% of this 3’s this season, attempted 20 and made 10 in the win. We don’t see them duplicating that here. They were facing a young Kentucky team with 5 freshman in their rotation playing in their first NCAA tourney. Now they face an NC State team that plays all juniors and seniors. Oakland is a fairly small team with 1 player that is over 6’7 and we don’t think they have anyone to match up with NCSU’s big man Burns who has averaged 16 PPG on 62% shooting during this 6 game run. We’re backed here by a strong round 2 NCAA trend that says teams that win in round 1 as double digit favorites are 4-18 SU (7-15 ATS) in their 2nd game dating back to 2005. NC State moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover here.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way OSU has played down the stretch this parting ways with head coach Holtmann. The players love interim coach Diebler and he was just named head coach moving forward so we sense some excitement with the players in this program. Since letting Holtmann loose, the Buckeyes have gone 7-2 with one of those losses coming by just 3 points vs Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. That was a game the Bucks led by 10 points midway through the 2nd half. They had a bit of a scare in the opening round of the NIT but held off Cornell 88-83. The Big Red hit 49% of their shots in that game to stay close but OSU dominated the boards with a +17 rebound margin. Saturday they face a Va Tech team that beat Richmond at home in the NIT opener but now must go on the road where they’ve won only 2 games the entire season. The Hokies have a PPG margin of -8 on the road this season and they have only 3 quad 1 wins this season with the most recent coming in January. OSU is 14-4 at home with 3 of their 4 home losses coming vs NCAA tourney teams (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas A&M). The Buckeyes average home score this year is 77-67 and we expect them to win and cover on Saturday. Lay the 4 points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors will look to build on their momentum following a blowout home win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Golden State looked very good in that game shooting 58% overall and 49% from Deep. That shooting success should carry over here against a Pacers team that rank 29th in opponents FG% allowing 49.9%. Not to mention Indiana doesn’t defend the 3-point line well as they allow foes to hit 36.9% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 20th. Indiana is obviously a great shooting team themselves, but the Warriors defense ranks 8th in opponents 3PT% and 12th in FG% defense. The Pacers have also struggled shooting in recent games with an EFG% of 55.2% which ranks 16th in the league over the last 5-games. Golden State is 17-9 SU/ATS when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season. Indiana is 10-14-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Golden State went to Indianapolis in early February and destroyed the Pacers 131-109 and never trailed in the game. Expect another dominating performance here.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Houston -24 over Longwood, Friday at 9:20 PM ET - We know the Cougs will come out with their pants on fire so to speak as they are off a terrible, embarrassing 28 point loss in the Big 12 Championship game vs ISU, their worst loss since 2014. That provides great motivation for a team that is already one of the top few teams in the country. Houston’s defense should completely shut down this Longwood offense. The Cougars rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% allowed, and 3rd at creating turnovers. That’s all bad news for Longwood who doesn’t shoot it very well (240th in eFG%), doesn’t make many 3’s (5.6 per game – 330th nationally) and turns the ball over at a high rated. In fact, the Lancers ranked dead last in the Big South Conference in offensive turnover rate despite the fact the conference doesn’t have a single team ranked inside the top 75 creating turnovers. Much is made of Houston’s defense, but their offense ranks in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and they should have plenty of extra possession on the offensive glass and creating turnovers. Longwood’s defense ranks outside the top 200 in eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Houston will put up points here. We highly doubt Longwood gets out of the 40’s in this game which means Houston won’t have to go crazy offensively to cover this game. Low to mid 70’s for the Cougs should be enough to get the cover.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -13.5 over Colgate, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Colgate won the Patriot League as they’ve become accustomed to but this is not one of Matt Langel’s better teams. They are ranked 144th per Ken Pom which is their lowest rating to end the regular season since 2018. Last year they were ranked 30 spots higher, made the NCAA tourney and got rolled by another Big 12 team Texas who won by 20 points. The Raiders lost all 4 games vs top 100 competition this season with 3 of those set backs coming by at least 17 points. There isn’t a single team in the Patriot League ranked higher than 260 (besides Colgate) so it’s been a long time since this team faced a high level opponent. Their strength of schedule is 340th and they faced only 6 opponents that fell into quad 1 or 2 this season and finished 1-5 in those games. Baylor is a top 15 team per KenPom and one of the best offensive units in the nation. Unlike Colgate the Bears faced 19 Quad 1 teams this year and finished those games with a winning record (10-9). They are the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the nation with 3 guys in the rotation hitting over 41% from deep. They are also the 6th most efficient offense in the country averaging 1.22 PPP. The Raiders have very solid numbers guarding the arc, however is that because their defense is high level or because they faced mainly poor shooting teams. We’ll lean toward the latter. They didn’t face a single 3 point shooting team in the Patriot that ranked above 120th and the average 3 point percentage rank of the teams they faced in conference play was 235th. Colgate isn’t an overly efficiency offensive team this season (209th) and we just think they’ll have trouble keeping up in this game. We like Baylor to roll.

#755 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Samford, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET - One of the most popular underdogs in the first round is this Samford team. Because of that we’re getting some really solid line value with the Jayhawks here. We understand Kansas will be without leading scorer McCullar, however he’s been out for half of their last 12 games so it’s not as if they now have to learn how to play without him. The Jayhawks beat 2 tourney teams down the stretch without him topping Baylor and Texas. We get a high level program in KU coming off a terrible outing in the Big 12 tourney as they lost by 20 points to Cincinnati. They played that game without McCullar and starting center Dickinson (18 PPG / 11 RPG) but he is back in the line up for this game. We’re sure the KU players are hearing all of the rumblings about a possible upset, etc… and coming off a bad loss we look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this one. If they do, we know Kansas is obviously more talented than Samford. The Bulldogs were an exciting, fast paced team that won the SoCon this season. They faced 2 top 100 teams the entire season and lost to Purdue by 30 and lost to VCU, who did not make the tourney, by 10. They are a small team (349th in height) facing a big KU team that should completely dominate them on the boards. Samford does shoot the 3 ball well, however their 3 point shot percentage drops off drastically when they are away from home (43% at home and 34% on the road). They’ll need to be red hot from deep to have a shot here. In order for a team with lesser talent to have a shot to beat a heavyweight, they need to limit possessions and shorten the game. Giving the superior talent more possessions just gives them a chance to pull away. Samford is a go, go, go team with the 14th highest adjusted tempo in CBB. We don’t think that serves them well here. Take Kansas on Thursday night.

#734 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The situation heavily favors Tech in this game. The Red Raiders beat BYU by 14 in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney and then lost to Houston last Friday. That means they’ve had nearly a full week to get rest and get ready for this one. NC State, on the other hand, played 5 games in 5 days and won the ACC Tourney to get into the Dance otherwise they were not in. They were underdogs in each of the last 4 games of that tourney and won each. Now playing on Thursday rather than Friday is not ideal for this Wolfpack team that isn’t very deep to begin with. Let’s keep in mind that prior to their 5 game stretch in the ACC tourney, the Wolfpack had only win 4 of their previous 14 games with 3 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tournament teams. Tech was a bit under the radar this year but this team is very good. They finished tied for 3rd place in the ultra tough Big 12 (tied with Baylor) behind only Houston & Iowa State, 2 top 6 teams nationally per KenPom. NC State finished with a losing record in a down ACC and wouldn’t be here at all if not for a 5 game run in the tourney. Texas Tech has better numbers both offensive and defensive efficiency along with better eFG% stats on both ends of the court. The Raiders get to the line more often as well and when they do they hit 78%. They also are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (37th) and they are facing an NCSU defense that ranks 246th defending the arc. Tech played the tougher schedule and has a fairly large advantage in efficiency margin despite that. Tech is the better team and in a much better situation. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -2.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets are on a 6-game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games with the two losses to playoff bound Phoenix and the Clippers. Houston has been solid all season long at home with a 23-11 SU / 23-10-1 ATS record. The Rockets win at home by an average of +6.1PPG. Chicago is 3-3 SU their last six games and 6-4 SU their last ten. On the road this season the Bulls are 16-18 SU with a negative loss margin of minus -3PPG. The Bulls are beat up right now with several players potentially out for this game including Caruso and White. Offensively these two teams have very similar statistic but the Rockets hold a big advantage defensively. Chicago is 19th in offensive efficiency, the Rockets are 20th. Houston has the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA and the 3rd best 3PT% D. The Rockets allow just 1.128-points per possession which is the 7th best number in the NBA. The Bulls by comparison allow 1.161PPP which ranks 17th. The play here is on the Rockets.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -6.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - Everyone seems to be on McNeese but we like this match up for the Zags. McNeese had played nobody this year with a 336th SOS. They have only played 2 top 100 teams all season and their big win early was vs Michigan and Wolverines ended up being terrible this year so not the huge win we thought it was at the time. McNeese has great defensive numbers, however they’ve played nobody with an offense like the Zags. In fact, not a single offense in the Southland Conference ranks in the top 200 in efficiency so the numbers are skewed. Same on offense for the Cowboys. Very good numbers but the Southland has one defense ranked in the top 200 in efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 9th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 2nd best shooting team in the nation at almost 52%. McNeese really thrives on creating turnovers which turn into extra possessions, however Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over (14th in the country in offensive turnover rate). The Cowboys are also one of the shortest teams in the Dance and we project Gonzaga will dominate the boards in this one. The Zags are off loss in WCC Championship game and 10 days off to put that behind them. Prior to that had won 14 of 15 including winning @ Kentucky in February. Mark Few is simply a great coach – 24 straight NCAA appearances – with an NCAA tourney record of 41-22 SU. The game is out west in Salt Lake City so Gonzaga should have a strong home court type advantage as their fans travel very well. We like this McNeese team but they haven’t played a single team anywhere close to as good as Gonzaga this year. This number seems light so we’ll lay the 6.5 points.

#738 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +1 over Oregon, Thursday at 4 PM ET - Like this bounce back spot for South Carolina after they were trounced by 31 points in the SEC tourney by Auburn. Teams in the NCAA tourney who entire off a 20+ point loss have done very well with a 23-10 ATS record. Because of that loss the Gamecocks have had an extra day to prepare while Oregon had to play 3 games in 3 days (Thurs – Sat) to win the Pac 12 tourney and grab an automatic bid, the only way they were getting into the Dance. After that grueling run in the conference tourney the Ducks now have to travel to the east coast (Pittsburgh) and play on Thursday which isn’t ideal. South Carolina was undervalued all season (23-10 ATS record) and they continue to be entering the NCAA tourney. Oregon was 16-18 ATS this year and because they made a solid run in their conference tourney this is close to a pick-em game when we feel the Gamecocks should be a larger chalk. These 2 teams played similar strength of schedule this year and South Carolina had better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. SC ranks in the top 85 in FG% allowed and Oregon ranks outside the top 300 in that key category. Both protect the ball well but South Carolina is the better rebounding team which should lead to extra possessions. Against good competition, the Gamecocks also held the edge with a 6-5 record vs Quad 1 teams and 11-5 overall vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents combined. Oregon had a losing record vs Quad 1 opponents and a losing record vs Quad 1 & 2 teams combined. South Carolina is the better team and in a better situation in basically a pick-em game. We’ll take it.

#743 ASA PLAY ON Morehead State +12 over Illinois, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - This line opened Illinois -13 and has dropped to -12 so we’ve lost a little line value but still like Morehead State in this spot. Illinois just completed a 3 games in 3 days situation to win the Big 10 tourney on Sunday. Now playing on Thursday as a heavy favorite is not ideal and it very well could be a letdown spot for the Illini after winning the conference tourney. Tough to lay this many points with a defense that simply hasn’t been good vs an offense that can shoot the ball. The Illini defense ranks 98th in efficiency on the year per Bart Torvik, however since February 1st they rank 158th in that metric. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their last 13 games. Morehead ranks 35th in the country in eFG% and they hit their 3’s at a 36% rate. They should be able to hit some 3’s in this game vs an Illinois defense that ranks 259th defending the arc. The Eagles are also a veteran team that has good size and rebounds the ball well (top 85 in both offensive and defensive rebounding). They also can get it done defensively holding opponents to 39% from the field this season which ranks as the 6th best mark in the nation. Lastly, Morehead will try and slow this game to a crawl as they rank 335th in adjusted tempo and they’ll do everything they can to keep Illinois out of transition. The Eagles have the recipe to keep this game closer than most think and we’ll take the hefty points.

#726 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina -24.5 over Wagner, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET - This is a really rough situation for a Wagner team that played in Dayton on Tuesday night and now must take the court again just 40 hours later in Charlotte. Wagner is lowest rated team per KenPom in this NCAA tourney and they are extremely thin with only 7 scholarship players. They are a terrible shooting team (ranked 358th in FG%) but shot lights out on Tuesday night in their win over Howard. The Seahawks shot 53% in the game (14% higher than their season average of 39%) and they made 47% of their 3’s (15% higher than their season average of 32%). On top of that, because they are so thin they had 3 starters play the full 40 minutes. We look for them to come back down to earth quickly on offense now facing a UNC defense that ranks 6th nationally in efficiency and is coming off a terrible performance vs NC State in the ACC Championship game (an 8 point loss as a 10 point favorite). The Heels will be ready to play after that embarrassing performance last Saturday. UNC averages 82 PPG (23rd nationally) and they are facing a Wagner offense that averages only 63 PPG (345th nationally) despite play in the NEC where over half of the teams rank below 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner went on a nice run in the NEC tourney to get to the Dance but let’s not forget they finished in 6th place with a losing record during the regular season in that league which ranks as the 2nd worst conference in college hoops. The Heels will have the home crowd here in Charlotte and should dominate from the outset. Blowout here.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +1.5 over Michigan State, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Bulldogs as a slight favorite so we’ll take the value with Mississippi State. Sparty comes in winning just 2 of their last 7 games and those wins weren’t overly impressive by 4 points at home vs Northwestern who played without 2 starters and in the Big 10 tourney vs Minnesota who tanked at the end of the season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Michigan State only had one quad 1 win in conference play and that was a home win vs Illinois. They weren’t a great shooting team (11th eFG% in the Big 10) and while they do shoot it well from 3, the Bulldogs defend the arc as well as anyone in this tourney ranking 6th nationally allowing just 29%. The Spartans, normally a good rebounding team, are not adept in that stat this season ranking outside the top 140 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That’s where Mississippi State can take advantage in this game to get some extra possessions as they are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation (21st). Mississippi State has high level wins over 2-seed Tennessee (twice) and 4-seed Auburn in SEC play. Both high level defenses facing off here, both in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, so no big edge on that side of the ball. Much is made of Izzo in March and while he is a great coach, we think that’s overblown. Much of that success was many years ago. In fact Michigan State hasn’t made it past the first weekend in 5 of the last 7 NCAA tournaments. We like the Bulldogs to win this game so we’ll take the point.

#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana State -7 over SMU, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We expect Indiana State to come into this one with a huge chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the NCAA tournament committee. They absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance as they rank 45th overall per Ken Pom which is higher than 30 teams that are in the NCAA tourney including a number of at large teams including Virginia, Northwestern, South Carolina, and Drake. The Sycamores were 13-1 SU at home this season and 28-6 overall. They are the best shooting team in the NATION in regards to eFG% and they rank #1 inside the arc making 62% of their shots and 11th nationally in 3 point shooting at 38.5%. On top of that, they make over 80% of their FT attempts. They lost by 4 points vs Drake (who is favored in the NCAA tourney over Washington State) in the MVC Championship but they’ve had a chance to recover as that was 10 days ago. SMU looked like they had a decent shot at the NCAA in late February (ranked 42nd per KenPom at that time) but they tanked it big time down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 games and dropped 20+ spots in KenPom’s ratings. The Mustangs overall are ranked 66th per Bart Torvik, however since mid November this team ranks 124th so a sharp drop off over the last month as we discussed. Their defense during that stretch since mid February ranks 142nd in efficiency which will be a big problem vs Indiana State’s potent offense. ISU, on the other hand, was still playing very well down the stretch winning 15 of their last 18 games yet was excluded from the NCAA which is the direct opposite of how SMU was playing late. With Indiana State playing at home with a lot of rest we see them playing very well in this game vs an SMU team that may not be as interested limping into this road game. Lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2.5 over Virginia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We wanted to fade this UVA team in the ACC tourney but they kept getting favorable draws which prevented us from doing that. They faced Boston College playing their 3rd game in 3 days and the Cavs squeaked by with an OT win. Then they faced an NC State team playing their 4th game in 4 days and Virginia lost that game in OT. Most didn’t think they deserved to be in the tourney and we agree. Their offense is just bad, averaging only 63 PPG and they didn’t reach 60 in regulation in either of their 2 ACC tourney games. The Cavs were held to less than 60 points in 6 of their final 8 games and they make their 3’s at a decent rate (36%) they have very little inside game ranking 310th in 2 point FG%. They are facing a solid CSU defense that led the Mountain West in 2 point FG% defense so UVA better be making their 3’s or they are in trouble. The Rams defense as a whole has been very solid this season ranking in the top 40 in defensive efficiency and they should have a huge edge offensively. They rank 13th nationally in FG% hitting 49% of their shots and CSU averages 76 PPG. Neither team is great at offensive rebounding and both protect the ball well (few turnovers) so we don’t see many extra possessions for either side. If this one is close as the spread suggests, FT shooting could loom large and CSU has a huge edge there hitting 76% of their freebies compared to 63% for Virginia. The Rams have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers AND they played the tougher strength of schedule on top of that (65th SOS to UVA’s 77th SOS). Lay the small number with Colorado State.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -3.5 over Minnesota, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota had a shot at the NCAA tourney in mid February but this team faded down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 teams. They weren’t competitive in any of those 5 losses with all coming by double digits. They aren’t a deep team and their head coach Ben Johnson basically said they ran out of gas. It’s going to be tough for them to go on the road and get a win here. They’ve only won 2 road games all season and those game vs Michigan (the worst team in the Big 10) and Penn State (had a losing record). Watching them down the stretch, we’re not sure this Minnesota team will be all that fired up to play in the NIT, especially on the road, despite what they are saying in the media. Butler is much more likely to bring intensity in this one playing at home. The Bulldogs are the better defensive team (51st defensive efficiency vs 133rd for Minnesota per Bart Torvik) and they are in the top 70 nationally in offensive turnover ratio compared to the Gophs that have a much higher turnover rated ranking 215th. As you might expect looking at the turnover rate stats, we like Butler’s backcourt much better than Minnesota’s which is key. The Bulldogs have a very solid 3 guard line up (Brooks, Alexander, and Davis) that combines to average 40 PPG and almost 9 assists per game. Butler is a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) and they are facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 324th guarding the arc. As we’ve stated many times this year, it what is expected to be a close game, FT’s will most likely be key. Butler makes 79% of their FT’s (9th best nationally) and Minnesota hits just 69% from the stripe (291st nationally). Lay it with Butler.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET - We will look to fade the Nets who are returning home after a 6-game road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU with losses to the Pistons, Hornets and Spurs who are three of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans has had a few days off and are on a heater right now with 2 straight wins and W’s in 6 of their last seven games. They have also covered 6 of their last seven overall with three in a row on the road. In their last three road games the Pelicans have a 13-point win in Atlanta, an 8-point win in Philly and a 41-blowout in Toronto. New Orleans should enjoy success from beyond the Arc tonight with their 5th best 3PT% going up against a Nets defense that ranks 23rd in 3PT% defense. The Pelicans should also enjoy a sizable advantage on the boards with a top 10 rebounding team going up against a bottom 10 rebounding team in Brooklyn. New Orleans is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite but they do have an average MOV of +10.9PPG. The Nets are 8-9-1 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of minus -4.8PPG. These teams met back in January with the Pelicans winning 112-85. This time around won’t be as dramatic of a victory, but we like the Pels to win by double-digits.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Howard -3 over Wagner, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Howard made the Big Dance last season and they returned 4 of their top 8 rotation players from that team so they have some experience in this situation. They also added F Seth Towns who played for Ohio State last year and he’s putting up over 12 PPG. This team is decent offensively averaging 75 PPG and hitting 37% of their triples (31st nationally). That’s a problem for Wagner who has a very poor offense. Can they keep up? Wagner averages just 63 PPG (352nd nationally) and they rank 334th in offensive efficiency, 353rd in eFG%, and 358th in 2 point FG%. Those numbers are bad, especially playing in the Northeast Conference that has half of their teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner has decent defensive numbers but all of the offenses in their conference rank outside the top 250 and 6 of those 10 teams rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight, Howard, would easily be the best offense in the Northeast Conference. Now add in the fact that Wagner wasn’t even close to the best team in their conference, finishing with a losing record (6th place), but made a run in the NEC tourney to get here. They are banged up and thin with only 7 healthy players heading into this tourney. We’ll take the Howard Bison to win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - The Spurs are still playing hard despite a horrendous season in the win/loss column. The Nets still have an outside shot to make the post season but they are just 13-31 SU their last 44 games. Even in losing lately the Spurs have been competitive against playoff bound teams such as Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, Indiana, OKC and Minnesota in recent weeks. In their last ten game stretch they have three quality wins against the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors. Tonight they catch the Nets coming off a game last night in Indianapolis and this will be Brooklyn’s 6th straight road contest. Brooklyn is 10-23 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of minus -6.9PPG which is the 24th highest differential in the NBA. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-t0-back this season with a negative average differential of minus -10.1PPG. They are 1-7 ATS as a Dog when playing without rest this season. San Antonio has only been favored in 5 games this season and they’ve covered 4 of them. Take the Spurs in this one.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -2 over Duquesne, Sunday a 1 PM ET - VCU was the better team in the A10 all season long and we’ll lay the small number here. The Rams had a higher adjusted efficiency margin vs nearly the exact same strength of schedule. Duquesne has a tendency to struggle offensively and playing their 4th game in 4 days may intensify those struggles. They have failed to top 70 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they rank 14th in the league (out of 15 teams) in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.00 PPP. They should struggle here vs a VCU defense that has held all 3 opponents in the A10 tourney to 62 points or fewer. VCU is also playing their 4th game in 4 days but they are a much better offensive team averaging 1.06 PPP on A10 play, they rank as the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the conference and make 79% of their FT’s in league play. Both teams are obviously very motivated as the winner moves onto the Big Dance and the loser does not, however we may have a little extra incentive for VCU who lost their regular season home finale to this Duquesne team. We’ll put an asterisk by that win for the Dukes as VCU played without their leading scoring Shulga (15 PPG) who is back and put up 25 points in yesterday’s win over St Joes. The Atlantic 10 Finals has been very chalky with the favorite going 21-9-1 ATS over the last 31 seasons. We’ll call for another favorite to cover and take VCU today.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 or -3.5 vs NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - We like the surging Kings in this matchup and expect Sacramento to light the beam in this home contest against the Knicks. Sacramento is 4-1 SU their last five games and it includes a win over the Bucks and two against the Lakers. In their last ten games they also have wins over the Timberwolves and Clippers. New York is 3-2 SU their last five games, but the wins aren’t as impressive as they came against the Magic, struggling 76ers and a bad Portland team. There is a lot of talk about the Knicks recent defensive prowess but again those numbers are skewed based on the offenses they’ve faced. Tonight they face a Kings offense that is one of the best in the league. Sacramento is 9th in offensive efficiency at 1.178-points per possession, they rank 9th in team FG% and 7th in EFG%. In analyzing each teams last five games we see the Knicks have the #1 defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing .977PPP but they are 27th in offensive efficiency in that same 5-game stretch. Conversely, the Kings have the 3rd best OEFF in their last five games AND rank 9th in DEFF. NY is 7-10-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. Sacramento has a losing spread record at home as a favorite but do own a positive average scoring differential of +1.8PPG. The Knicks are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively in this game as the Kings have too many weapons with Fox and Sabonis.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -9.5 over NC State, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - NC State has made a valiant run in the ACC tourney to this point but this is where it ends. The Wolfpack are playing their 5th game in 5 days (+ OT last night vs UVA) with a short line up of just 7 rotation players. They caught some breaks along the way with Duke, one of the top 3 point shooting teams, hitting just 5 of 20 triples 2 nights ago in a 5 point Wolfpack win. And it’s not as if NC State is a lockdown defensive team from beyond the arc ranking 263rd nationally defending the 3 point line. Last night they trailed by 6 with 45 seconds remaining in the game and UVA went onto to miss FT’s down the stretch (6 of 11 for the game) and NCSU banked in a 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT where they won. That was despite the Pack hitting 11% higher from the field compared to UVA and making 8 more FT’s they still had to go to OT to get the win. UNC was easily the best team team in the ACC this year and they are “rested” compared to NCSU playing just their 3rd game in this tourney. The Heels rank #1 in the ACC most defensive metrics (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and should limit the Wolfpack offense that will have tired legs. UNC should also dominate the boards, for fatigue issues and because they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the ACC which will give them extra opportunities vs NC State who ranks 13th in the ACC in defensive rebounding and now tired legs on top of that. The Heels should also win the FT battle with NC State fouling as much as any team in the ACC and UNC makes 75% of their freebies on the season. UNC won both games during the regular season by 9 & 13 points and that was under normal circumstances, not facing NC State playing their 5th game in 5 days. UNC is battling for a #1 seed in the tourney so they are still motivated and they should roll up a big win here.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -1.5 or -2 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on USF on Friday and they rolled to a huge win over East Carolina. The Bulls were in must win mode and while they move 1 step closer to the NCAA tourney, they really can’t lose this game and leave the decision in the hands of the committee on Sunday. They are still a bubble team despite their 24-6 record. They’ve been the best team in the AAC all season long and continue to get very little respect. The Bulls are the #1 three point shooting team in conference play hitting 38% of their triples. We felt they’d shoot well vs an ECU defense that doesn’t defend the arc well and they did hitting 45% (14 made 3’s). Same situation here as UAB’s defense ranks 262nd nationally (11th in the AAC) defending the 3 point line. In general the Blazers defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 197th in efficiency. 216th in eFG% allowed, and they give up 75 PPG. They did hold Wichita State to 60 points yesterday but the Shockers were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and UAB had off since the weekend. On top of that, Wichita was not a good offensive team to begin with ranking 13th in the AAC in efficiency. On the other side, South Florida is the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to spread out their minutes yesterday as they led ECU by 30 at home point and 9 guys played 10+ minutes. USF had 2 losses in conference play this season and one of those was a down to the wire game @ UAB (Blazers won by 4) despite the fact UAB made 30 FT’s and just 9 for the Bulls. It was their only meeting this season giving USF even more motivation. They continue to be undervalued but just keeping winning and covering (20-7 ATS). We like USF to get another cover on Saturday.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -6.5 over East Carolina, Friday at 1 PM ET - Not only does AAC regular season champ USF have massive motivation here, it’s also a terrible match up for ECU on top of that. The Bulls have had a great season with a 23-6 SU record and 16-2 in AAC play, but they are not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tourney. In fact, most bracketologists have them out of the Big Dance unless they win this game. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily a reason to make a wager on a team, but we love the match up for the Bulls as well. They are the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. The Pirates offensive numbers are not good ranking dead last in the conference in efficiency averaging only 1.00 PPP, dead last in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. You get where we are going here, ECU will have major problems on offense in this game. In yesterday’s 5 point win over Tulsa, the Pirates were able to shoot 50% (nearly 10% above their season average) vs a defense that ranked near the bottom of the AAC in efficiency and eFG% allowed. That won’t happen today. USF should have plenty of success on offense vs an East Carlina defense that has allowed an average of 81.5 PPG over their last 5. When these teams met for the only time this season @ ECU, the Bulls held the Pirated to 39% from the field and won by 11 points on the road. We see a similar outcome on Friday. South Florida by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the T’Wolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago played last night in Indianapolis making this the second night of a back-to-back for the Bulls. Not only that, but this is their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six days. Chicago is not a deep team to begin with and has the 18th worst Net Rating for their bench. The Bulls bench has the 24th rated EFG% in the NBA at 52.1%. With the added rest the Clippers starters should see extended minutes in this one and have a healthy Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for this contest. The Clippers starters have the 6th best Net Rating differential in the NBA at +4.6. Los Angeles has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and the 13th best DEFF. In comparison the Bulls rate 18th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in OEFF. The Clippers are 12-10 ATS as a road chalk this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. The Bulls are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog but they own a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Clippers start their road trip with a double digit win here.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -8 over USC, Thursday at 3 PM ET - Great line value here with the Wildcats. They were just favored @ USC in the regular season finale by 7.5 and now only laying 8.5 on a neutral. That’s because they lost that game @ USC and in embarrassing fashion 78-65. It was a flat spot for the Wildcats on the road after they had just clinched the Pac 12 title a few days earlier with a 23 point win over UCLA. It showed as Arizona was flat shooting just 39% and hitting only 29% from deep while producing their lowest point total of the entire season. This team was hoping to get another shot at USC and now they get that chance and you can bet Zona is ultra motivated. Not only because of that loss but they are also fighting for a #1 seed in the Big Dance. We like the way USC has been playing over the last few weeks winning 5 of their last 6 games but this is a rough situation for the Trojans. While they have been playing better this is still a team that finished with an 8-12 Pac 12 record and had a negative adjusted efficiency margin in conference play. They shot 50% in their opening round win over Washington yesterday (80-74 final) and they also hit 50% of their shots at home vs Arizona last week. Now they face a motivated Cats team that lead the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and you can bet USC won’t be shooting lights out in this game. Zona ranks in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency while USC ranks outside the top 80 in both. The Cats had an average winning margin of +17 points in league play while USC had a dead even PPG margin. 12 of Arizona’s 15 conference wins came by double digits! Again, we like how the Trojans have been trending but we can’t pass on this line value with one of the top teams in the country who will be extremely motivated.

ASA BET ON Chicago Bulls +4 @ Indiana Pacers – 7PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bulls and fade the Pacers who played last night in Oklahoma City and won as an underdog. The Bulls are 18-15 ATS on the road this season and have won 5 of their last seven road games outright. We like the fact that the Bulls are coming off a blowout home loss in their most recent game on Monday to the Mavericks which should have them focused here. Indiana played last night making this the second of a back-to-back and also their 3rd game in four nights. When playing without rest this season the Pacers have the worst spread record in the NBA at 2-9 ATS with an average loss margin of -8.6PPG. Indiana is also 9-11-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Both teams have negative point differential since the All-Star break with the Pacers at minus -1.9PPG, the Bulls are minus -3.4PPG but clearly both of those differentials would net a cover in this one. Indiana has some depth concerns with Mathurin out for the season and the road team has covered the spread in both meetings this season. Grab the points.

ASA BET ON ORLANDO MAGIC -7 vs Brooklyn Nets – 7 PM ET - We are on the Magic in this one. Orlando has the best spread record at home as a favorite this season at 13-3 with an average Margin of Victory in those games of +13.4PPG. Overall at home the Magic are 20-9 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Nets on the other hand are 10-20 SU away from home, 11-19 ATS which is the 2nd worst road spread record in the league. When playing on the road, the Nets lose by an average of -6.3PPG. The Magic look to bounce back after 2 straight losses, with the most recent being at home to Indiana. Brooklyn meanwhile is coming off a huge upset road win over the Cavs and should revert back to their losing ways tonight. The home team has covered 5 straight in this series.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas -4.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Texas is the more well rounded team in this match up and our power ratings have the Horns favored by 6.5 in this game so we like the value. Texas is ranked in the top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold a huge edge on the offensive end of the court here. They rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and KSU ranks 143rd. The Longhorns rank in the top 55 in both FG% and 3 point FG% while the Cats rank 255th and 297th in those stats. KSU does play high level defense however they just don’t put up enough offense away from home to come up with wins. In fact, they won only 1 road game the entire season in Big 12 play and that was @ West Virginia who was by far the worst team in the conference this season. Their PPG numbers drop by nearly 8 points on the road and they average only 0.96 PPP away from home. Texas had 4 Big 12 road wins and blew a 14 point lead @ Baylor late in the season or they would have had another one. The Horns offensive numbers stay fairly consistent on the road as they average 77 PPG at home and 75 PPG away from home. They also put up a solid 1.063 PPP on the road this season. Not only is Texas the much better offensive team they should get more opportunities on that end of the floor as well. That’s because KSU is a turnover machine and a poor defensive rebounding team. The Cats rank 349th in offensive turnover rate (and Texas is solid at creating turnovers) and they rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage (and Texas is a solid offensive rebounding team). Those 2 things should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Longhorns. Should UT need to close this one out late with FT’s they are hitting 77% in conference play, 2nd in the Big 12. These 2 met about a month ago and Texas won by 6, however they led by 12 with under 3:00 minutes remaining in that one. This is a pretty short number for Texas and we’ll lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Washington, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - USC has played as well as anyone in the Pac 12 down the stretch. They were just 3-10 in conference play on February 10th and then caught fire and won 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 losses coming vs Colorado in double OT and vs Washington State by 3 points and the Trojans led both of those games by double digits in the 2nd half. Those 2 teams are rated #2 and #3 in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona who still sits as a top 10 team nationally and a likely #1 or #2 seed in the Big Dance. Speaking of the Wildcats, USC just rolled Arizona by 13 points to close out the regular season. Since mid February, USC is ranked in the top 20 nationally in overall efficiency per Bart Torvik. These 2 just met 11 days ago and USC beat Washington on the road 82-75. The Trojans led that one by 15 points with under 6:00 minutes to go while the Huskies largest lead of the game in that game was just 4 points. UW led that game, their home finale so motivation was high, for just 2 minutes and that’s it. That was despite the Huskies making 5 more 3 pointers than USC so outscoring them by 15 points from beyond the arc. We don’t see anything changing on a neutral court just 11 days after USC dominated Washington on the road. Lay the small number.

#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -1.5 over Boston College, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Hmmm? Miami enters this game with 9 straight losses, facing a BC team that beat them twice this year yet the Canes opened as a favorite? Strange line and we agree Miami should be laying points in this one. These 2 faced off just last week and BC pulled the upset @ Miami. The Canes lost starting G Pack about 15 minutes into that game and he didn’t return. He didn’t play in the regular season finale @ FSU but we’re hearing there is a chance he plays here. This is a winning Miami program that simply has had a poor season. Entering the year they had a 29-9 SU record in ACC play the previous 2 seasons, they won the ACC last year, and they went to the Final 4. They returned 3 starters and some key reserves from that team along with head coach Larranaga who has nearly 1,200 career wins. They were expected to have a very good season but finished just 6-14 in ACC play. We expect them to play well in this tourney with new life and shot to make the NCAA tourney if they run the table. The Canes have a veteran post season team and played pretty well against the top teams in the ACC taking North Carolina to the wire twice (lost by 3 & 4 points), beat Clemson, and took Wake Forest to OT on the road where the Deacs were 16-1 this season. While Miami is a winning program that simply had a poor season, BC is not used to winning. They are 17-14 this year but haven’t had a winning season since 2018. In ACC play they finished 8-12 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in league play facing each of the top 4 teams only one time (all losses). We don’t think BC can beat this rejuvenated Miami team 3 times in one season. Lay the small number on Tuesday.

#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Thomas +3.5 over South Dakota State, Monday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have these 2 teams rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is absolutely with St Thomas in our opinion. The reason SDSU is favored by 3 points here is they beat St Thomas in both games this season and won the Summit League with a 12-4 record although both of these teams finished 20-12 overall. If we take a closer look at their match ups this year, both games went to the wire with SDSU winning by 1 and 5 points. Statistically the Jackrabbits shot lights out but still struggled to pull away and win by margin. SDSU hit well over 50% in both games and combined to make a ridiculous 57% of their shots in those games including almost 52% from deep. That’s around 10% higher than their season average and almost 18% higher than their season long 3 point average. St Thomas combined to shoot 46% in those 2 games (a little below their season average) and from beyond the arc they were 22 for 63 (35%) which is also just below their average. So SDSU shot lights out and St Thomas shot below their averages yet both games came down to the wire. The largest lead in either game was 9 points and both held that advantage at some point in each game. AEM was advantage STM despite SDSU winning the league. The Jackrabbits held a +4 FT’s made advantage in those games combined and the rebounds were nearly dead even. St Thomas had better adjusted efficiency margins in conference play despite the Jackrabbits winning the league. If South Dakota State comes back to earth shooting wise in this game, we’re confident that St Thomas will win. If not, we still expect a close game similar to the first 2 and the points are worth taking.

ASA TOP PLAY ON #518 ORLANDO MAGIC -1.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 6:10 PM ET - The Magic are coming off a humbling game on Friday night in New York as they were beaten handily 74-98. That loss snapped a 5 game winning streak and we expect them to bounce back here. Orlando has quietly been playing fantastic basketball with a 13-4 SU record in their last seventeen games. The Magic have been a money printing machine at home as a favorite with a 13-3 ATS record while covering 7 in a row. Not only have the Magic been covering at home as a Chalk but they’ve done it in impressive fashion with an average +/- of +13.4PPG in those games. Indiana comes into this game off a home loss to the Timberwolves and are 2-4 SU their last six games overall. The Pacers have been average on the road this season with a 15-14-1 ATS record. In their last twelve road games they have just 5-covers. The difference between these two teams is obvious as the Magic rely on the 3rd best defense in the league, while the Pacers are anchored by the 2nd most efficient offense. In the two regular season meetings thus far the Magic and their defense have won twice, both in Indiana, by 12 and 7-points. We will back the better defense again today.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions facing off in Bloomington on Sunday. IU has played their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks winning 3 straight games as underdogs including 2 on the road. Their most recent home game was a solid win over a good Wisconsin team and the Hoosiers were 4 point dogs in that game. They have high level talent along their front line with Ware (former McDonald’s All American) and Reneau who are both peaking at the same time. Those 2 have combined for 97 points and 51 rebounds in those 3 consecutive wins. MSU has lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during that run coming at home on Wednesday night vs a banged up Northwestern team. That wasn’t an overly impressive 4 point win over a Wildcat team that played without 2 starters. Sparty has been a poor road team this season to say the least winning only 3 of their 9 Big 10 road games. Those 3 road wins have come against Michigan (the worst team in the conference), Maryland, and PSU who all have losing Big 10 records and have a combined mark of 18-39 in Big 10 play. MSU is ahead of the Hoosiers by only 1 game in conference play and IU actually has the better eFG% numbers on offense and defense in Big 10 games. This is also a revenge game for the Hoosiers as they lost their most recent match-up with the Spartans (Feb of 2023). Indiana was the ranked team in that match-up but it was the first home game for Michigan State since the on-campus shooting and they had an inspired game. The Hoosiers did win the last time they hosted the Spartans and we like Indiana getting points in their home finale on Sunday.

#700 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon -3.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We played against Utah on Thursday night @ Oregon State, the worst team in the Pac 12, and picked up a win with the Beavers rolling 92-85 as a 7.5 point dog. The game wasn’t even that close as OSU (5-14 record in the Pac 12) led by 17 with just 4:00 minutes remaining. That continues Utah’s terrible run on the road where they are now 1-8 both SU & ATS in Pac 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point @ UCLA. They average a whopping 11 fewer points on the road compared to at home (84 PPG at home / 71 PPG on the road) and as you might expect their efficiency drops from 1.28 PPP at home to just 1.00 on the road. It’s not only the offense that has drastically differing results on the road the Utes defense allows 67 PPG and home and 80 PPG on the road this season. They allow just 0.90 PPP at home and that rises to 1.12 PPP on the road which is just a huge difference. They’ll get an angry Ducks team on Saturday as Oregon just lost here vs Colorado (2nd best team in the conference per KenPom ratings) by a final score of 79-75. The Buffs shot lights out at 55% in that game and 47% from 3 point land yet it was a 1 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Oregon had a 3 point shot to tie with 6 seconds left but missed. That loss dropped the Ducks to 12-3 SU at home this season with their 3 losses coming vs Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, the 3 best teams in the conference. In their first meeting @ Utah the Ducks lost 80-77 despite the Utes hitting 50% of their shots and 44% of their triples and the host attempted twice as many FT’s (22 to 11). Despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Utes largest lead of the game was 6 points and it took 2 FT’s in the final seconds to salt the game away. Speaking of FT’s, now back at home we expect Oregon to have the edge at the stripe where they’ve hit 75% in league play (2nd in the Pac 12) while Utah has made only 60% of their freebies (dead last). These 2 teams have met 10 times in Oregon with the Ducks winning 9 of those games. We’ll fade the team that can’t win on the road vs the Ducks in their home finale and off a rare home loss.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke -4.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met on February 3rd with UNC pulling out a 93-84 win. In that game the Heels shot 50% overall and attempted 14 more FT’s and they held the Blue Devils a normally to just 8 assists and turned them over 11 times (Duke 18th in assist to turnover ratio so an aberration). Since that loss, Duke has been the better team winning 8 of 9 games with their only loss coming @ Wake Forest by 4 points. Since that they rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 1 of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. Since Feb 1 the Devils rank 4th nationally in overall efficiency behind only UConn, Tennessee, and Arizona. This team is playing at the top of their game right now and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Tar Heels have shown some struggles as of late losing 3 of their last 10 games and struggled in home wins vs Miami (won by 4 but Miami played without their starting PG) and NC State (won but trailed by double digits in the 2nd half). UNC has played only 1 road game since February 13th and they beat a struggling Virginia team in that game but scored only 54 points. Duke has a solid edge shooting the ball ranking 22nd in FG% compared to 170th for UNC (10th in the ACC in eFG%) and in the Heels 9 true road games they are shooting under 40% from the field. 5 of UNC’s 6 losses have come in road/neutral games and they average 12 PPG less on the road than they do at home. A win by Duke here moves them into a tie for 1st place with UNC and we like this red hot Devils team to get their revenge at home on Saturday vs the arch rival.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Sacramento Kings 10 PM ET - Even with big man Wembanyama sidelined for this one, we like the Spurs here and the double digit points who are in a very favorable scheduling situation. The Kings are coming off a huge showdown with the Lakers in L.A. on Wednesday night and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have lost two straight at home to the Bulls and Heat. The last time the Kings won at home was against this Spurs team by 5-points 127-122. San Antonio has been playing under the radar since the All-Star break with a 2-5 SU record, but they have covered 5 of seven. The visitor in this series has covered 5-straight games. Since the ASG these two teams have very similar Net Ratings with the Kings ranking 15th at -2.1, the Spurs are 23rd at -2.3. The big reason the Spurs have played well recently has been the improvement of their overall defense. In their last five games the Spurs are allowing 1.140-points per possession, which is 13th in the league. The Kings defense ranks 21st in DEFF over that same 5-game span. There was a time when the Kings home court was incredible but this season they are closer to average with a 16-11 SU record and an average +/- of +0.6PPG. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA TOP PLAY ON Denver Nuggets +1.5 at home vs. Boston Celtics, 10 PM ET - This could very well be a Finals preview and should be a great game. We will side with the home team Nuggets though as their home numbers are just too much to overlook. Both teams come into this game off a recent loss. The Celtics blew a big lead to the Cavs on Tuesday and lost 104-105. The Nuggets trailed the Suns at home from most of the game before outscoring them 21-12 in the 4th to send the game to OT where they eventually lost. Since the start of last season, the Nuggets are 68-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. They have only been home underdogs 4 times and they won all four by an average of +10.5PPG. Boston is really good as a road team with a 50-29 SU away record their last 79 away. If you compare every key statistic between these two teams you find they are very close offensively and defensively, but we like the home court advantage of Denver. The World Champs gets this win on Thursday.

#797 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Kentucky +7.5 over Wright State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These 2 just met last Saturday and now they face off in the Horizon League Tournament. In their game last Saturday, Wright State played at home (same scenario as tonight) and they won by 6 points over NKU. The Raiders shot 54% in the game (51% for Northern Kentucky) and outscored the Norse by 18 points for the 3 point line (+9) and from the FT line (+9) and even with that big advantage the game went to the wire. NKU was playing great basketball heading into that game winning 6 of 7 prior to Saturday’s tight loss. Wright State finished 1 game ahead of Northern KY in the Horizon League with a 13-7 record (12-8 for NKU) and this line is set to high due to that + the fact that WSU won both regular season meeting (by 6 & 7 points). The Raiders are a terrible defensive team, one of the worst in the country, ranking 343rd in defensive efficiency, 351st in eFG% allowed, and 355th in PPG allowed giving up 80 PPG. Really tough to lay this many points in a win or go home situation vs a team that is much better defensively. NKU ranks 2nd in the Horizon League in defensive efficiency and 3rd in eFG% allowed. The Norse allow just 71 PPG which is 2nd best on the conference (league games) while Wright State’s defense is giving up 82 PPG in conference play (last in the league). According to statistics from KenPom.com, when the “better team” (in this case, Wright State) won both previous matchups (which they did), the third game becomes a true toss-up — the better teams win only about 49.3% of the time in these cases. Getting 7.5 points is a great buffer here in a game we think is close. Take the points with Northern Kentucky.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii -6.5 over Cal State Northridge, Wednesday at 11:59 PM ET - After a 4 game winning streak in early February, CS Northridge is trending down losing 4 of their last 5 games and the alarming part is all 4 losses came at home. 3 of those 4 losses came by double digits and now they make the tough travel to Hawaii to take on a team that has won 7 of their last 10 games and currently ranks (per KenPom) as the 4th best team in the conference. The Rainbow Warriors currently sit in 5th place in the league and are fighting for a top 4 finish which would give them a bye in the conference tournament. During this 10 game stretch, Hawaii has faced 3 of the 4 teams that sit ahead of them in the Big West standing and they’ve beaten all 3 by 17, 8, and 8 points. They’ve played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet still have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers when compared to CS Northridge. The Matadors have a losing record in conference play and their offense has generated less than 1.00 PPP (conference games) while ranking dead last in 3 point FG%. These 2 met back in January and CSN pulled the upset beating Hawaii as a 2 point dog. The Rainbow Warriors shot just 33% in that game and made only 13 FT’s compared to the Matadors 25 out of 30 from the stripe (80%). Not to be expected here on the road from a Northridge team that ranks last in the Big West making only 67% of their freebies. The Matadors have traveled to the islands to play Hawaii 11 times in their history and lost 9 of those games. We see double digit Hawaii win late on Wednesday Night.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6 straight wins and a defense that ranks best in the NBA over that time period. As a Bucks fan I temper my enthusiasm though as two of those wins came against Charlotte, one versus a struggling Bulls team and one against Philly who had injury issues. The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Boston on Sunday in a National TV showing. I like Golden State to bounce back with a concentrated effort at home. The home team in this series has dominated with 6-straight wins including the Bucks getting a W on Jan 13th at home 129-118. You might be a bit surprised to know that the Bucks are 3-5 ATS as an underdog with a negative average differential in those games of -10.5PPG. Golden State has dominated Eastern Conference teams this season with a 16-7 SU record and a +/- of +3.3PPG. Given the circumstances we like the Warriors minus the short number.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Indiana which saw the Pacers win at home 133-111 as a +2-point dog. Based on that spread this line should have the Mavericks as a much bigger favorite. The big difference in that Pacer win was a fantastic shooting night at 56% overall and a +8-rebound differential. The Pacers rely heavily on their offense and outscoring opponents but since the All-Star break they have seen a significant drop in their Offensive Net Rating and overall shooting percentages. For the season the Pacers rank 1st in the league in team FG% at 50%, but in their last five games that number has dipped to 47.4% which would rank them 13th. Also, in their last five games their 3PT% had dropped to 32% which is the 25th lowest percentage in the NBA over this recent 5-game period. We like Dallas to get a measure of revenge here from the recent L in Indianapolis. Dallas is also coming off a loss at home to Philadelphia on Sunday in a national TV game. Prior to Sunday’s home loss, the Mavs had won 4-straight at home with two of those wins coming against Phoenix and OKC. The Mavericks are 16-10 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +3.8PPG. When laying points this season the Mavs have a 21-14 ATS record with a plus/minus of +5.8PPG. Indiana is 9-9-1 ATS as a road dog with a net differential per game of minus -9.6PPG. Dallas will find their shot tonight against a Pacers defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% allowed at 50.5%. Lay the short number with Dallas.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2 at Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a much better situation with a bet on the Sixers here laying a short number against the Nets. Philadelphia looked good in their win over the Mavericks on Sunday and were relatively healthy without Embiid who is out for the foreseeable future. The Sixers didn’t shoot overly well against the Mavs but still put up 120 points on 45% shooting overall and just 30% from Deep. This Philly team is 2-3 SU their last five games but the two losses came to the Celtics and Bucks who are playing extremely well at the moment. Now they step down in class against a 24-36 Brooklyn team that also has a losing home record. The Nets are coming off a game against the Grizzlies on Monday making this the second night of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is 2-7 SU this when playing without rest and have an average negative differential in those games of -15PPG. This will also be the Nets 3rd game in four days. The 76ers had beaten the Nets 9 straight times before their most recent game which was a blowout loss on their home court. Paybacks are a bitch and that’s exactly what happens here tonight.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Illini have 1 home loss in Big 10 play and that was with Shannon (22 PPG) out. He is back and putting up huge numbers to say the least averaging 26.5 PPG over his last 7. Speaking of Shannon, he also missed the game @ Purdue, a game the Boilers won at home by 5 points. Since his return the Illini offense has taken it to another level ranking 1st nationally in offensive efficiency since February 1st putting up a 1.34 PPP. The Boilers have a 2 game lead in the Big 10 so they are fairly safe even if they lose this game. They have 3 conference losses, all the road, vs Nebraska (34th nationally), Northwestern (46th), and Ohio State (53rd) and they now face an Illinois that is far superior to all of those teams (ranked 12th nationally per KenPom). In Big 10 play, Purdue has played only 2 teams that rank in the top 40 (Wisconsin & Nebraska) and they’ve only faced one top 50 team period since February 4th. That was Michigan State on Saturday and that was just a 6 point home win. The Boilermakers have been winning some tight games with only 2 double digit wins over their last 9 games. We feel they are more than due to get bounced and playing the 2nd best team in the conference on the road is where it will happen in our opinion. The emotion will be high in Illinois’ final home game and biggest home game of the year so we’ll call for the win and cover.

#646 ASA PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bama in a tough spot here playing their 4th game in 11 days with 3 of those games coming on the road. The Tide were knocked off at home on Saturday vs Tennessee which was a huge game that was a battle for 1st place in the SEC. With the home loss Bama it will now be really tough for Bama to catch the Vols with a 1 game deficit with 2 games remaining and they lost both games to Tennessee this year so they’d lost the tie breaker as well. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama is a bit flat in their final road game after that disappointing loss on Saturday. They’ve shown to be vulnerable on the road with 3 SEC losses away from home and their best conference win was @ Mississippi State who sits at 8-8 in league play. Every other team they beat on the road has a losing conference record. Florida is also off a loss @ South Carolina on Saturday. It was a game the Gators led by double digits in the 2nd half, outrebounded and outshot (48% to 47%) the Gamecocks but were -11 made FT’s in the 6 point loss. Now back at home where they are 13-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2 points to Kentucky. Their average score at home is 87-71 so winning by +16 PPG. These 2 just met @ Alabama in late February and the Gators gave the Crimson Tide their toughest conference home game of the season (minus Bama’s home loss to Tennessee on Saturday). The Gators led for much of the game including by 10 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game but lost 98-93 in OT. In that loss, the Gators led at half and Bama didn’t take their first lead of the 2nd half until 4:00 remaining in the game. Prior to their game vs Florida, the Crimson Tide were undefeated at home in SEC play winning by an average margin of +21 PPG. Catching Florida in this spot as a home dog (line opened Bama -1) is some solid value in our opinion. The Gators have been a home dog only 1 other time this year vs a very good Auburn team and Florida rolled the Tigers 81-65. Even with the line having flipped to Florida as a small favorite at the time of this posting, we’ll call for the Gators to get a home win on Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +7 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - Too many points to give a team we feel has a shot at the outright upset. Texas has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Houston and @ Kansas. The Horns have been a solid road team in Big 12 play with a 4-4 SU record including outright upsets @ TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They have 2 very solid veteran guards in Hunter and Abmas who both average double digits and combined to average 9 assists per game. Texas is one of the top shooting teams in the Big 12 (3rd in shooting %) and they are facing a Baylor defense that struggles on the defensive end ranking 13th in the Big 12 in FG% allowed and 276th nationally. It's going to be tough for the Bears to pull away from this talented offense with a defense that simply isn’t very good right now. Baylor is coming off a huge home game vs Kansas which turned into an 8 point win but they haven’t been unbeatable at home in league play this year. They already have 2 home losses in Big 12 play and only 1 of their 6 home wins in league play have come by double digits. Only 2 of their 10 Big 12 wins have come by 10+ points so for the most part Baylor is playing close games in conference play. This line opened -7 and if it stays there, this will be tied the largest home favorite Baylor has been in conference play this season and that should not be the case facing a balanced Texas team that ranks in the top 40 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The PPG margin in Big 12 play for these 2 teams is nearly identical with Baylor at +3 PPG and Texas at +1 PPG. Just too many points in game we think will go to the wire.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nebraska -8 over Rutgers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers just continue to roll at home and we’ll stick with that trend here. They are 17-1 SU at home with their only loss coming in non-conference play vs Creighton. In Big 10 play they are 9-0 both SU & ATS at Pinnacle Bank Arena with their average margin of victory being +14 points per game. The only 3 teams in conference play they did not beat by double digits at home were Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Northwestern. They are facing a Rutgers team that has all kiinds of trouble offensively and is just 2-6 SU on the road in Big 10 play. The Scarlet Knights rank dead last in conference play in scoring, offensive efficiency, and eFG%. On the road this team is shooting just 39% and scoring 65 PPG on just 0.926 PPP. That shouldn’t change here vs a surprising Nebraska defense that is allowing 65 PPG at home on just 38% shooting. Offensively the Huskers thrive at home averaging 80 PPG and they’ve hit at least 73 points in 15 of their 18 home games this season. That’s not a good sign for Rutgers who struggles to score as we mentioned. In their first meeting this season @ Rutgers, the Cornhuskers blew a 12 point 2nd half lead and lost in OT. Nebraska shot just 38% in that game and we expect them to shoot much better at home on Sunday where their shooting percentage is 3% higher than it is in their road games. The host should also have a solid advantage at the FT line where they shoot 78% in conference play compared to 68% for Rutgers. This is a must win for Nebraska’s tourney hopes and we’ll lay it.

ASA top play on Charlotte Hornets +8.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 6 PM ET - This is a bad number and does not reflect how much better the Hornets have been since the trade deadline. In fact, the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this price because of the Hornets 3 recent losses but let’s not forget that those L’s came to the surging Bucks (twice) and a 76ers team in desperation mode. In their last 10 games the Hornets have the 10th best Net Defensive rating and they’ve covered 6 of their last nine games. In their most recent loss they didn’t have starter Brandon Miller their second leading scorer but he’ll be back in the lineup Sunday. The Raptors on the other hand lost Scottie Barnes their best player who is averaging 19.9PPG and 8.2 rebounds per game. Toronto has not been good defensively either, ranking 22nd in Net Defensive rating in their last 10 games. The Raptors are 8-8 ATS as a home favorite with an average +/- of +1.0PPG which is clearly not enough of a margin to cover this number. Charlotte has a negative differential on the road of -12.4PPG but those numbers mainly came from before the All-Star game. The Hornets defense will keep them in this one, especially with Barnes on the bench in street clothes.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +7.5 vs Miami Heat, 5 PM ET - Betting on or against the Jazz has not been kind to us but we have a short memory and will back Utah in this situation against the Heat. Orlando play at Orlando on Thursday and lost a pretty tight game by 8-points. They are in Florida and have a big scheduling edge here. Miami is home for the first time after a 6-game road trip which finished on Thursday night in Denver. The Heat are 15-13 SU, 12-16 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG which is bottom 10 of the NBA. Utah on the road this season is 9-20 SU and haven’t been very good but this is a great situation for them to stay close with the Heat. The Jazz are 16-15-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss with an average net differential of minus -3.9PPG. It’s a tough scheduling situation for Miami so let’s grab the points with the Jazz.

#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Auburn -9 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Triple motivation for the home team Tigers in this game. First, they are off a loss @ Tennessee on Wednesday night, second they lost their most recent home game vs Kentucky (their only home loss of the season, and they lost @ Mississippi State in January scoring only 58 points on 34% shooting, their worst offensive performance of the season. We look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this game at home where they average 85 PPG on 1.160 PPP. The Tigers are 13-1 SU at home (9-4-1 ATS) with all 13 of those wins coming by double digits. They simply blow teams out at Neville Arena winning by an average of score of 85-65. MSU will have a tough time bouncing back here as they put a lot of emphasis on their home revenge game vs Kentucky on Tuesday night and lost by 2 blowing a 13 point 2nd half lead. The Bulldogs are a poor road team (2-6 SU) with their only 2 road wins coming @ Mizzou and @ LSU, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. When the Dogs have had to step up in competition on the road it hasn’t been pretty. They’ve faced 4 teams in SEC play that currently sit ahead of them in the conference standing and lost all 4 by an average of 16 PPG. MSU is the worst team in the league at turning the ball over (19% of their possessions in SEC play are turnovers) and they are facing an Auburn team that creates havoc defensively (2nd in the SEC in defensive TO% and 6th nationally in defensive efficiency). We also expect the Tigers to have a huge advantage in points at the FT line as they hit 77% of their freebies in league play while MSU makes only 62% of their FT’s. We don’t think the Bulldogs can keep up here and we like the motivated Tigers to roll up an easy win, as they usually do at home.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Charlotte -3 over South Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Love this spot for Charlotte. They’ve had a full week off since losing back to back road games to fall to 11-4 in AAC play (2nd place). On Saturday they host the USF Bulls who are 14-1 in league play and have a full 3 game lead with 3 games to play so they are pretty much assured of winning the AAC regular season title. We feel USF is vastly overvalued because of their record but the fact is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they have the 5th best adjusted efficiency margin in the AAC and KenPom has them ranked as the 5th best team in the league as well despite their record. The Bulls just had a huge home game topping SMU which gave them at least a tie for the conference title and they just entered the AP top 25 for the first time EVER. While they do have a 6-3 SU road record, they haven’t been great squeaking by lower tier AAC teams (Temple, Rice, and UTSA – combined 13-33 SU AAC record) all by 6 points or fewer. The 2 solid road wins they have had an asterisk by each @ Memphis winning by 2 (trailed by 20 in the 2nd half) and @ UNT by 5 (who played without one of their top players CJ Noland). They have played only 2 of the top 7 teams in the conference on the road thus far. After basically clinching the AAC title and squeaking into the top 25, we look for a letdown from USF in this game vs a very good Charlotte team that is desperate off 2 losses. Prior to that 2 game losing stretch, the 49ers had won 11 of 12 games. They are still battling 4 other teams (5 teams for 3 spots) to finish in the top 4 and receive a double bye in the AAC tourney. The 49ers are 12-1 SU at home this year and 7-0 in conference play. Going back to the start of last season they are 23-5 SU at home. When these two met 1 month ago @ USF, the 49ers lost by 3 points but dominated the vast majority of the game. Charlotte blew a 17 point lead in that game and USF’s largest lead of the game was 3 points which was the final margin. The Bulls FIRST lead of that game came with 29 seconds remaining! We like Charlotte to get their revenge at home in this one after dominating the first meeting.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over Marquette, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays are playing their home finale here and trying 2 catch Marquette for 2nd place in the Big East. The Golden Eagles sit 2 games ahead but they have this game and a game vs UConn yet on the docket so Creighton definitely has a chance to catch them if they win this game. It looks like Marquette will be without their starting PG Tyler Kolek (15 PPG & 7.5 APG) who is one of the top players in the Big East. He injured his oblique muscle on Wednesday and wasn’t able to practice on Thursday. When these 2 met in Milwaukee the Golden Eagles squeaked out a 72-67 win with Kolek and Sean Jones (also injured and out for this game) combined to score over 40% of Marquette’s points that night (30 points). Two keys in that game were aberrations in our opinion with Marquette, a poor rebounding team, +9 on the boards. The Golden Eagles also attempted 10 more FT’s but they score the fewest points in the league from the FT line. If those 2 things go Creighton’s way at home, like we think they will, this should be a cover. The Jays offense is nearly unstoppable at home averaging 86 PPG while hitting 52% of their shots. They are 13-2 at home this year (26-4 SU since the start of last season) with their 2 losses coming by 1 & 2 points and they topped the Big East’s beat team, UConn, here by 19 points in February 20th. Marquette lost on the road to the UConn team by 28 points just 3 days prior to that. This is Marquette’s first road game since February 17th and with the Golden Eagles being without much of their firepower in this game, we just don’t think they can keep up with Creighton. Lay it.

ASA top play 10* on Chicago Bulls +3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing 2nd of a B2B as they played in Charlotte on Thursday and have to travel. This is Milwaukee’s 5th game in 8 days and fatigue will be a factor. Chicago is at home and coming off an impressive win against the Cavaliers who rate very similar to the Bucks right now in our overall Power Ratings. The Bulls have a 64.3% cover rate when having a rest advantage with a 9-5 ATS record and a +1.9PPG average MOV in those games. Milwaukee is 9-13 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Bulls are 8-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. The Bucks struggled to defend this season but in their last five games they have the 8th best defensive efficiency rating but a byproduct of playing great defense has led to a regression in their offensive efficiency which has dropped to 18th compared to 5th on the season. The Bulls are around league average in both OEFF and DEFF but they defend much better at home allowing 1.123PPP which is 8th best in the league. The home team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings including 3-0 this season. In fact, the last two meetings this season have both gone to OT with the Bulls winning one of those 120-113 on this court. Grab the home dog here.

#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas State +3.5 over Troy, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Couple key things at play in this game. First the scheduling situation is heavily in favor of the home team Texas State. They are playing the 2nd of back to back home games after beating ULM here by 18 points on Tuesday. It’s also the home finale which always brings an extra level of motivation. Lastly, because the Bobcats played on Tuesday, they are getting an extra day as Troy played Wednesday night @ Louisiana. Speaking of the Trojans, this will be their 4th straight road game in the span of only 9 days. They’ve played @ Arkansas St, @ ULM, @ Louisiana all since Feb 22nd and now @ Texas St just 48 hours after upsetting the Rajin Cajuns on Wednesday. In that win Troy made a ridiculous 38 FT’s (38 of 42) and Louisiana shot just 1 of 12 from 3 point land. Troy has a losing road record this season (5-8 SU) and with weary legs expected, they really don’t have a whole lot to play for. They are in 3rd place in the Sun Belt and locked into that spot most likely unless James Madison (2nd best team in the Sun Belt) would lose to Coastal Carolina, the worst team in the league which is highly unlikely. Troy is locked into a double bye in the conference tourney no matter what they do here. Texas State, on the other hand, needs a win to have a chance to move out of an opening round game and pick up a single by in the tournament. While the Bobcats have a losing record overall, they are 8-4 SU at home this season and they are playing well winning 6 of their last 9 games including topping the best team in the conference, App State, here by 7 points during that stretch. They average home margin is 75-66 and this is a revenger as the Bobcats lost @ Troy earlier this season with the Trojans shooting over 50% overall and over 40% from deep. We think Texas State has a great shot at the upset here and if not it should be close so we’ll grab the points with the home dog.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just met in Indianapolis with the Pacers winning 123-114 as a 4-point favorite. The Pelicans went into that game having played the night before in New York and they were playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in 7 days. Indiana was off the night before and had played 3 straight home games prior. The Pelicans will get a measure of revenge on their home court tonight where they are 17-12 SU with the 11th best average point differential of +5.5PPG. New Orleans has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on their home court allowing 1.120PPP. Indiana has a negative road differential of minus -1.9PPG and an overall SU record of 14-14. The Pacers defense on the road is one of the worst in the NBA as they give up 1.206-points per possession. New Orleans has the 3rd best spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss at 15-8-1 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Pacers clearly have a great offense with the best FG% in the NBA but the Pelicans have the 6th best shooting defense in the league allowing 46.3%. New Orleans is also the best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line and can limit the Pacers 5th ranked 3-points shooting.

#842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State -6.5 over USC, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET - We’re getting one of the best teams in the Pac 12 at home off a loss. Washington State lost @ Arizona State on Saturday but that was a massive letdown spot for the Cougars after they upset Arizona on the road 2 nights earlier. Their loss @ ASU dropped them to 2nd place in the league so they need to win to keep pace with 1st place Arizona. Wazzu is 13-1 at home this year with 12 of their 13 home wins coming by at least 7 points and this spread sits at -8. Their only home win by fewer than 7 points was a 3 point win over Arizona. At home the Cougs hit over 50% of their shots, over 38% of their triples and they win by an average score of 80-63. They are facing a USC team that is 4 games below .500 on the season and on the road they are just 2-8 SU this season. One of those win came @ arch rival UCLA on Saturday as they topped the Bruins 62-56. After that big win we would look for a letdown from a USC team that really doesn’t have a lot to play for in this one as they sit in 2nd to last place in the Pac 12 with a 5-11 record. The Trojans have underachieved all season ranking 10th in the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also have the worst 3 point defense in conference play allowing opponents to hit over 38% of their triples. Meanwhile, WSU ranks in the top 3 in Pac 12 play in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the #1 eFG% defense in the conference. USC has had 7 of their 8 road losses by at least 8 points which is more than tonight’s spread of 6.5 points. Wazzu won by 8 @ USC already this year and we look for a double digit win for the Cougars tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -8.5 vs Houston Rockets, 9:10 PM ET - These two teams just met in Houston last week with the Suns losing 110-114 as a 3-point favorite. Now the Suns are playing with revenge and laying a short number based on what the spread was in Houston. The Rockets have been horrible on the road this season with a 5-22 SU record and a negative differential of minus -6.3PPG (23rd). It’s been extremely tough for the Rockets on the road lately as they’ve lost 8 straight away from home and 5 of those L’s have come by 8+ points. Phoenix is starting to play well with a 6-3 SU record their last nine games with 5 straight wins on their home court. Houston struggles shooting with the 26th rated FG% in the NBA at 45.8%. they are also 26th worst in 3PT%. Phoenix on the other had shoots 49.6% as a team (3rd best) and 37.8% from Deep which ranks 8th. The Suns have the 6th best EFG% at 56.6%, the Rockets rank 28th at 52.5%. Granted the Rockets are the much better team defensively, but in their last five games their defense has allowed 1.166-points per possession which ranks 19th in the NBA over that span of games. The Suns defense has actually been much better over that same 5-game span allowing 1.154PP. We will lay the points with the Suns.

ASA top play on the 10* Clippers -3.5 vs. the Lakers, 10 PM ET - This rivalry has always meant more to the Clippers than the glamourous Lakers, which is why they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings. The Lakers won the first two games of the season series, but the Clippers won most recently in the third clash on January 23rd. The Clippers were favored by -9.5-points in that game and won by 11. The Clippers have the 5th best average point differential in the NBA at +4.7PPG, while the Lakers have a negative overall differential of minus -0.5PPG. The Clippers are better offensively ranking 4th in OEFF, the Lakers are 18th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Clippers allow 1.152PPP (13th) and the Lakers give up 1.155PPP (15th). The Lakers have a better overall spread record when coming off a loss, but the Clippers have the better overall point differential in those games at +4.3PPG versus +1.4PPG for the Lakers. We are on the Clippers in this one.

#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State +12 over Arizona, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - These 2 arch rivals met 10 days ago and Arizona destroyed the Sun Devils 105-60 which was the largest margin of victory for either team ever in this storied rivalry. You can bet ASU will bring their “A” game in this one at home after that embarrassment. In that loss the Sun Devils made only 36% of their shots and made only 12 FT’s compared to the Wildcats 57% and 25 made FT’s. ASU has had a disappointing 14-14 season thus far but they’ve been solid at home with a 10-4 record and this will be their 3rd straight home game after losing by 2 vs Washington in OT and then topped Washington State by 12 points who was in the 1st place tie with Arizona at the time. With the exception of 1 game, they’ve been competitive in their home losses as well with 2 of their 4 setbacks coming by 2 points. Zona has been a dominant home team, but on the road they are just 5-3 SU on the season with losses @ Oregon State (last place in the Pac 12) and @ Stanford (9th place in the Pac 12). On the road the Cats average 6 fewer points and their shooting percentage drops 5% and their 3 point percentage drops 6%. The last 12 times Arizona has traveled to ASU, they’ve never won by more than 13 points and the Devils actually won 5 of those games outright. This is a very dangerous spot for the Cats and we like Arizona State to keep this close. Take the points.

#749 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +11.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Gophs continue to be undervalued with a ridiculous 23-4 ATS record and the fact is this team has played very well and been very competitive since late January. They’ve won 5 of their last 8 games and against the top half of the Big 10, they’ve held their own to say the least. Against the top 6 teams in the conference (Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, & Nebraska), all ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 nationally, Minnesota has a record of 3-4 SU (6-1 ATS) with only 1 loss coming by more than 10 points and that was @ Nebraska over the weekend. They gave Purdue all they could handle on the road losing by 8 in a game the Gophers led by 10 in the 2nd half. They lost by 2 points vs Wisconsin and split with Michigan State – those are the top 3 teams in the conference besides Illinois. They are coming off their worst outing of the entire season losing @ Nebraska by 18 and they haven’t lost by more than 12 in any other conference game this season. We expect the Gophers to play well in what is a must win game if they have any hopes of an NCAA berth. They are on the outside looking in now but winning this game and closing the season with 3 more winnable games could get them in the conversation. Illinois is coming off a home win over Iowa by 10 points in a game they trailed by 7 with 12:00 remaining in the game. The Illini are in 2nd place in the Big 10 and they have a huge game on deck @ 3rd place Wisconsin to this could be a flat spot for them. They simply haven’t been playing dominant basketball over the last month. Their record over that stretch is 6-3 SU, however they only have 1 win by more than 12 points and that was at home vs a free falling Michigan team. Their defense has not been good allowing at least 1.13 PPP in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Minnesota’s offense has played very well as of late averaging 78 PPG in their 7 games prior to playing poorly vs Nebraska last weekend. They’ll be able to do enough on offense to stay within this big number. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Mavs playing 2nd of a B2B and 3rd game in four days. The Raptors are home and rested. It’s a small sample size but the Raptors have looked like a new team in their last 3 games. In those three games they have the 6th Net offensive 122.6 and a defensive Net rating that is 11th 110.5 . Overall, that’s the 5th best NET differential rating of +12.1 over a 3-game span. Dallas had ripped off 7 straight wins prior to losing Sunday against the Pacers but 4 of those were at home. Now Dallas has a very good spread record as a road favorite at 11-3 ATS but their margin of victory in those games is +3.1PPG. They have an overall road record of 15-11 SU but they have a negative average point differential of minus -2.3PPG. The Raptors as a home dog is 5-7 ATS with an average +/- of -3.8PPG – but again they are playing much better of late. These teams have similar home/road efficiency ratings so given the adverse traveling situation the Mavs are in we like the home team with Toronto.

#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -7 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Really like this spot for a very solid CSU team off back to back road losses @ New Mexico & @ UNLV. The Rams are back home where they are a perfect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Mountain West action. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 25th in eFG% (42nd in offensive efficiency) and at home those numbers rise even more as they’ve hit 52% of their shots and averaged 82 PPG at Moby Arena. Their offensive efficiency at home is 1.16 PPP compared to 1.03 PPP on the road. So we know the Rams are good at home offensively. On defense has been where this team has surprised us this season. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and in conference play the Rams are #2 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Put those 2 things together and you can see why this team is deadly at home (14-1 overall record with only loss by 3 points vs top 20 St Mary’s). Nevada is in the 2nd of back to back road games and this will be their 3rd in 4 on the road in the last 11 days. They are off a road win @ San Jose St, the lowest rated team in the MWC. This is also a revenger for CSU who lost 77-64 @ Nevada in January (we were on Nevada), in a game where the normally top notch shooting Rams hit 39% overall and just 26% from 3. They have struggled shooting at times on the road and that was one of those games, but now back at home we expect a very good offensive output for Colorado State. It they need to ice this one late the Rams hit over 76% of their FT’s on the season as well. Let’s lay the number with Colorado State.

ASA top play on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This number is too high, and the value lies with the Dog in this rivalry. Boston recently played the 21-35 SU Nets at home and were favored by -11.5-points. In early February they were -11.5 at home against the Hawks. Now they are laying 12 versus the Sixers? Granted, the 76ers don’t have Embiid back they still have enough talent on this roster to stay close with the Celtics. Philly has the 7th best road point differential in the NBA at +2.8PPG and has only been road dogs 11 times this season with a 6-5 ATS record. They were recently +11.5 at Cleveland without Harris and Batum and won that game outright by 2-points. In the last meeting in Boston, the Celtics were favored by -11.5 points and the Sixers were without Embiid and Maxey. The Celtics barely won that game by 6-points. Boston is fantastic at home this season with a 26-3 SU record, but they are just 15-14 ATS as a favorite. 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has been decided by 12-points or less. Take the pooch!