Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The “tell” on this game is the number as Vegas is trying to bait you into betting the Kings as a home dog. We won’t fall into that trap and will take the red hot Hawks here. Atlanta is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers where they led by 22-points in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing by 9-points. Prior to that game the Hawks had won 8 straight games, four of which were on the road. Sacramento is playing better of late with wins in 3 of their last four games but they haven’t been consistent, especially at home where they are 9-12 SU with the 27th worst average loss margin in the NBA of minus -4.9PPG. Sacramento has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall and at home where they allow 121PPG. Atlanta is 11-12 SU on the road this season but do have a positive road differential which ranks 13th best in the league. Yes, this is a quick turnaround game and the Hawks just beat the Kings but Atlanta has been in California for a few days and the Kings are coming off a 6-game East coast road trip. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored on the road this year. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Pepperdine -6 over Bellarmine, Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - Strength of schedule and the level of competition clearly favors the Waves of Pepperdine here as they’ve played the 83rd toughest schedule this season compared to Bellarmines’ 285th. Not only have the Knight’s played a weak schedule but against that weaker competition they still rank 295th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.081-points per possession. Bellarmine has the 333rd ranked defensive EFG% against at 55.1%. They are also the 336th worst team in the nation in defending 3-pt shooting. That doesn’t bode well against a Pepperdine team was 89th in offensive efficiency this season and 135th in EFG% offensive at 50.6%. The Wave can also defend with the 132nd rated defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.003PPP. That’s even more impressive considering the Wave play in the West Coast Conference which ranks 7th in EFG% offense and features 5 teams that rank in the top 101 in offensive efficiency. Pepperdine has some quality wins and close losses on their resume and are the superior team. Bellarmine has one win over a team ranked higher than 200th and that was Army (196th) last time out. Lay the points with Pepperdine.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, Monday 10 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks are rolling right now and are coming off a HUGE win over the Lakers. Because of their current 8-game winning streak this line is a few points lower than it should be. But lets also consider who the Hawks have beaten in this streak. They beat the Lakers after LeBron was injured just 10-minutes in. They have wins over OKC, Houston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Toronto, Orlando and Miami. Other than Miami, none of those teams have a winning record and four of those teams are in the bottom 6 of the entire NBA. The Clippers are 14-6 SU at home with the 5th best point differential of +7.3PPG which gets a cover here. L.A. has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at home and average 117PPG on their home court. Atlanta is 19th in road defensive efficiency rankings and will have a hard time stopping the Clippers in this one. LA is rested and ready…LAY IT!

#832 ASA PLAY 8* ON Alabama -5.5 over Maryland, Monday at 8:45 PM ET - The Terps basically play 6 players which will make this tough turnaround very tough after playing a very physical game vs UConn 2 days ago. All 5 of their starters played at least 33 minutes and 172 of the 200 total minutes available. Even though they won by 11, we consider them a bit fortunate to beat the Huskies as UConn took 65 shots and the Terps just 43. Maryland was destroyed on the boards with UConn rebounding nearly 50% of their misses which is a big reason they were +22 in shot attempts. Problem for the Huskies was, they shot horrendous making just 32% of their shots and only 5 of their 12 FT’s. Maryland, on the other hand, shot lights out hitting 52% of their shots and 50% of their 3-pointers. That’s was huge for the Terps who rely heavily on the 3-point shot with over 37% of their points in Big 10 play coming from behind the arc (most in the conference). No chance they shoot like that on Monday. First of all, with their starters playing nearly all of the minutes on Saturday, they could have dead legs here. Secondly, they face a fantastic defense in this one as the Tide rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 7th in the country defending the arc allowing just 28%. Bama was able to beat a dangerous Iona team by double digits on Saturday and they had 8 players log 20+ minutes so they should be the fresher team in this game. The Tide won despite not playing a great game offensively. They uncharacteristically missed 10 of their 23 FT’s (they shoot 72% on the season) and they hit only 5 three pointers on 16 attempts for just 31%. An off game for sure for a team that led the SEC making almost 38% of their 3’s and they were 2nd nationally making an average of 10.5 threes per game. Not only does the situation favor Alabama, the line value is with the Tide. Maryland just played Michigan (the 4th rated #1 seed) last weekend and they were an 8.5 point dog and lost by double digits. Now they play Alabama (the 1st rated #2 seed) and the number is just 5.5. Alabama covers and moves on to the Sweet 16.

ASA top play on 10* UCLA -4.5 over Abilene Christian, Monday 5:15 PM ET - This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but it’s warranted based on how well the Bruins are currently playing. UCLA is one of those uber talented team that didn’t play up to their potential at times this season with nine losses. But when the Bruins have been right, they’ve been very good and the first two games in the tourney showed just how well this team can play. UCLA is 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession and 82nd in defensive efficiency allowing just .972PPP. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that it comes against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. AS we’ve seen in the first two games of the Tourney the Bruins can go inside, make shots on the perimeter and are physical on the defensive end of the floor. Abilene Christian has some impressive statistics overall and play high pressure defense and lead the nation in forced turnovers. The Wildcats were 24th in DEFF allowing .913PPP but were 165th in OEFF. The problem with their overall numbers though is they’ve played the 315th WORST schedule in college basketball. In fact, the Wildcats DEFF numbers are VERY misleading as they’ve faced 12 teams that rank 270th or worse in offensive efficiency. Again, the Bruins rank 12th in that category. Abilene Christian is coming off maybe their biggest win in school history over Big Brother Texas and will let down here against a Bruins team capable of beating most teams in the tourney the way they are playing right now.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Lakers, 10:15 PM ET - Several Sports Books have come out with a line on this game of Phoenix minus 4-points but we don’t expect that to be the number at tipoff. The Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis which makes them a below average team in the West. The Suns on the other hand are one of the best in the West and would have been favored by 4-points here had LeBron been playing. With that said we will lay up to 9-points with the Suns if this line moves. Phoenix is 14-8 SU at home with the 3rd best average point differential of plus +7.5PPG on the season. The Lakers are just 4-5 SU their last nine road games and only two of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record. The Lakers are just 3-3 SU when playing without rest this season and this factor becomes magnified now without LeBron in the lineup. The Suns take care of business against the leagues best teams as they hold a 11-1 ATS record their last twelve games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage.

ASA top play on 10* Oregon State +6.5 over Oklahoma State, 9:40 PM ET - We’ve been high on the Big 12 Conference all season long, but the Pac 12 Conference has played well in the Tourney with UCLA beatings Michigan State in the play in game, Oregon State, Colorado, USC, Colorado and Oregon all advancing. Oregon State was a surprise upset of Tennessee in the opening round, but they made us a believer and we also feel the Cowboys are a bit over-rated. Oregon State has won 4 straight against solid competition with wins over UCLA, Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee. The Beavers are 7-1 SU their last eight games. We have contrasting styles of play here as the Beavers (314th in pace) want to play slow while the Cowboys (33rd) want to play fast. Oklahoma State wasn’t as impressive in their opening round 69-60 win over Liberty and Cade Cunningham struggled shooting by going 3 of 14 from the field. Oklahoma State holds an advantage in defensive efficiency rating at 17th compared to Oregon State at 93rd but the Beavers have a slight advantage in offensive efficiency. It is going to be extremely hard for Oklahoma State to cover this number when they rank 325th in turnovers per game compared to Oregon State who ranks 54th. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court while Oklahoma State is just 1-5 ATS their last six tourney games as a chalk. Grab the points in what should be a close game.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - We rarely pass up an opportunity to play on an elite NBA team off an embarrassing loss which is the case for the 76ers in this situation. Philly was just beaten by the Bucks at home and will be eager to atone here. The Sixers are 18-4 SU at home with the 4th best margin of victory of +7.2PPG. They hold the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 12th best offensive efficiency. While the 76ers are in a great situation (at home, rested and off a home loss) the Kings are in a bad situation. Sacramento is off a HUGE upset win over the Celtics as a 7-point dog, playing the second night of a back-to-back, playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in eight days. The Kings have the 24th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG, rank 27th in road defensive efficiency and 16th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -8.2PPG. Philly 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Easy call for a BIG win by Philadelphia.

#781 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Bonaventure +1.5 over LSU, Saturday at 1:45 PM ET - Big coaching mismatch here in our opinion. St Bonnies head coach Schmidt is one of the best in the country. He’s been at STB for 14 years and took over a program that was 24-88 the 4 years previous to him taking the job and turned them into a perennial A10 contender. They were the best team in the Atlantic 10 all season long and they won the conference tourney rolling over the 2 other top teams in the league (St Louis & VCU) by double digits to close out as A10 tournament champions. LSU has a bunch of talent each year as HC Will Wade can recruit (although they are under investigation under his watch) but they underperform quite often. This year they are very young (329th in experience) and rated as the 4th best team in the SEC. The Tigers just went through a grueling tourney run losing to Bama in the finals which could take a lot out of this team. LSU is a historically a team that will overlook a team like St Bonnies, especially coming off 3 games in 3 days last weekend. The Tigers love to run and will be stymied here by a STB team that is one of the slowest in the nation. We expect the Bonnies to control the pace and frustrate this young LSU team. STB is a veteran team with 4 junior starters (all started last year) and a fantastic defensively ranking 17th nationally in defensive efficiency. The only 3 teams in the SEC that ranked higher than St Bonnies on the defensive end were Bama, Tennessee, and Arkansas and LSU had a 2-3 record vs those teams. LSU’s defense has been lacking for much of the year (125th nationally) and facing a St Bonaventure team whose starters all average 12.7 PPG or more will be a problem. For most, this line of LSU -1.5 may seem really easy to take the SEC team. We have STB ranked higher than LSU and we expect them to win. The Bonnies have been underdogs just 4 times this year and covered 3 of those games. Take the points.

#753 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -1.5 over Clemson, Friday at 9:20 PM ET - Going with the Big 10 (stronger league) over a down ACC this season. The Scarlet Knights finished 10-10 in the Big 10 but we think they are undervalued having played an extremely tough schedule (7th SOS nationally). They currently rank as the 8th best team in the conference but 34th nationally which obviously shows just how good the Big 10 was this season. They are very good defensively (18th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they score mainly inside the arc with 60% of their coming from 2-point range (12th most nationally). We like that scenario when playing at a new NBA venue (Bankers Life Fieldhouse home of the Pacers) as it’s often more difficult to shoot from outside at the bigger arenas. That’s the direct opposite from this Clemson team who has to shoot well from beyond the arc to have a chance to win. The Tigers are 27th nationally scoring almost 40% of their points from 3-point land yet they aren’t a great shooting team (130th in 3 point%). Rutgers defends the arc well so this should be a tough game offensively for Clemson. The Tigers were a shaky team away from home winning just 2 true road games this season @ Wake and @ Miami – 2 of the 3 worst teams in the ACC. Rutgers had a losing road record in Big 10 play which is not surprising, however they did beat Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota all on the road. The only thing where Rutgers is at an obvious disadvantage is at the FT line where they make just 63%. However, Clemson goes to the FT line very infrequently (336th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage if any for the Tigers at the stripe. Rutgers is the 10 seed yet favored over the 7-seed Tigers for a reason. They are the better team in most aspects of the game. We fully expect the Knights to win so we’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4 over Miami Heat, 8 PM ET - This line opened higher than it currently sits, then received a volume of money on the Heat and yet the line moved down. That’s a great first indicator the Pacers are the play here. Looking at each teams last ten games we find completely opposite results. Miami is 8-2 SU their last ten games while the Pacers are 2-8 SU. But on closer inspection we see the Heat have just two wins in that stretch over teams with winning records and one of them came against 21-20 Atlanta. Indiana has played a brutally tough schedule recently with games against the Nets, Nuggets twice, Suns, Lakers, 76ers, Knicks and Celtics. In comparison the Pacers were getting similar points at Denver, at the Lakers and at Philly. Despite a 12-8 SU home record the Heat have an average margin of victory of just 0.6PPG which is 16th worst in the NBA. Pacers have a negative road differential of -0.2PPG which is well within this point spread. Grab the points.

#747 ASA PLAY ON 8* Liberty +7.5 over Oklahoma State, Friday at 6:25 PM ET - Liberty is the exact type of team that can pull an upset over OSU. The Cowboys love to get out and run but Liberty will slow this game to a snail’s pace. They rank 348th nationally in tempo and know they cannot run with OSU. They will walk it up at every chance. The Flames are also a great shooting team. They rank 4th nationally in eFG%, 10th in 3-point%, 9th in 2-point% and 20th in FT%. They have 5 players in their rotation that shoot at least 39% from behind the arc. They obviously play in a lower tier conference (ASUN) where the competition isn’t great but they are by far the best team in the league with a 14-2 record and 23-5 overall. They also played some Power 5 teams in the non-conference beating both South Carolina & Mississippi and they gave Missouri all they could handle on the road. OSU is very good but very young as well. This will be the first NCAA tournament appearance for every player on the team as well as head coach Boynton. The Cowboys weren’t great this year vs teams that slowed them down like Liberty will do. The 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 12 were Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma. They lost both games vs TCU, beat KSU by 7, went to OT both games with Tech, and beat OU by 4 each game. Keep in mind that Liberty is ranked higher (97th) than both TCU & Kansas State. The Flames head coach McCay has been a D1 head man since 1997 and in his last 3 years at Liberty his teams have a combined 82-16 record. Two years ago his Liberty team knocked off Mississippi State in the opening round of the Big Dance and gave Virginia Tech all they could handle in the 2nd game. They’ve been off for 12 days to get ready while facing an OSU team that had a grueling 3 game run in the Big 12 tourney facing Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas over the weekend. Be careful here if you’re the Cowboys. This one will be tight.

#739 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +16.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love to look long and hard at big underdogs that can score points.  That’s what we have here.  ORU averages 82 PPG and ranks 13th nationally in scoring.  They shoot it very well especially from deep where the average nearly 40% from beyond the arc (11th nationally).  They can also steal some points on the FT line when they do get there as they hit nearly 83% from the stripe as a team (1st nationally).  We think OSU will have a tough time pulling away in this game.  The Buckeyes are coming off a rough and emotional Big Ten tourney run playing 4 games in 4 days and losing to Illinois in OT in the finals.  Now they get an early game on Friday while Oral Roberts has had 10 days off to rest, practice, and get ready for their opener.  The Golden Eagles have lost by more than this spread just once all season long and that was in the season opener @ Missouri way back in November.  They were competitive in their games vs high D1 teams this year losing by 5 @ Oklahoma State, by 5 @ Wichita State, by 11 @ Arkansas, and by 14 @ Oklahoma, all NCAA tourney teams.  If OSU has a weakness, it’s definitely their defense as they ranked dead last this year in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency (all games).  They are also average at best at defending the arc so we don’t see them slowing down Oral Roberts in this game.  The Buckeyes will put up points for sure, but the Eagles, even if they get down by more than the spread, will have the ability to score late if needed to get back in the game.  The Buckeyes simply want to win and advance and get some rest for their starters if they are up double digits late in the game.  Oral Roberts scores 70+ in this one and covers the big number.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Typically, a solid situation is betting against teams off games in the higher altitude of Denver if they are playing without rest such as the Hornets tonight. But we are going contrarian for a couple key reasons. First off, the Hornets were down big early and barely played the starters in the second half so fatigue won’t be an issue. Secondly, the line value is obvious as the Hornets were just plus +6.5-points at Denver who is rated higher than the Lakers, who are laying 8-points here. The Lakers are average or below in most offensive categories including efficiency which they rank 15th in. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring and 22nd in 3-point percentage shooting. L.A. has the 4th most wins in the NBA (easy first half schedule) but their average point differential is just +6PPG. Charlotte is above .500 this season and getting great play from their young talent including LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have won 4 of their last five games and 6 of their last nine. Charlotte is 8-11 SU on the road with an average point differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Hornets have been great off a loss recently with a 6-0 ATS run. Any time you play the Lakers it’s a big game so expect Charlotte to be dialed in tonight. Lakers 1-4 ATS their last five off a win of 10+ points.

#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Norfolk State +3 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 8:40 PM ET - App State made a great run through their conference tourney catching lightning in a bottle as some teams do this time of year.  They played 4 games in 4 days in the Sun Belt tourney to win the title but let’s not forget this team was ranked as the 5th best team in the Sun Belt entering that tournament and actually had a losing record during the regular season.  They also lost 3 times this season to Troy who is ranked 305th nationally and is the worst team in the Sun Belt so App State has been far from reliable.  They’ve had some rest now but this is a very thin team which can cause problems in a tournament setting.  Their starters played 733 out of the 850 possible minutes in those 4 tourney games that were all very tight.  Norfolk steps in from the MEAC, which isn’t a strong league, but they were the best team in their conference all season.  The Spartans have had off since Saturday so they’ll be rested as well.  They are also deep (15th nationally in bench minutes) and experienced with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up and multiple upperclassmen coming off the bench.  Their head coach Jones has been at Norfolk for 8 years and had only one losing season (solid program).  No post-season last year for anyone but in 2019 the Spartans made the NIT and beat Alabama before losing to Colorado.  They are a good sized team, solid rebounding, one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (39th) and they don’t turn the ball over very much.  This one has upset written all over, although we wouldn’t call it that as we have this game rated as dead-even.  We’ll take the points with Norfolk State.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly playing well right now with three straight wins to climb over the .500 record for the season. Charlotte recently beat Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto who are all very comparable to this Kings team. The Hornets have been very solid at home with a 6-1 SU record their last seven home games AND they won those games by an average of 11PPG. Sacramento has not been a good road team this year with a 6-11 SU record and one of the worst road differentials in the NBA at minus -5.7PPG. The Kings are 1-6 SU their last seven road games, and that one win came against the Pistons who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Not only that, those six losses all came by more than the tonight’s spread. Sacramento is 1-7 ATS their last eight as a dog. Charlotte takes care of business when it comes to weaker teams with a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a losing record. Easy call here with Charlotte by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 over LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - Obviously, the Clippers are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 12-8 SU with a point differential of +5.6PPG, but they’ve struggled of late with a 1-4 SU record their last five away from home. New Orleans is 2-3 SU their last five home games and one of those wins came against the Utah Jazz as a +7-point underdog. The Pelicans are 11-10 SU on their home floor this season and also have a positive plus/minus of +2.2PPG (12th best in the NBA). The Pelicans have cashed 7 of the last ten meetings in this series overall and 20 of the last twenty-seven in New Orleans. Based on our line analysis and the money moves on this game we are siding with the home team here plus the points.

#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +1.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9 PM ET - These 2 were supposed to face off twice this year but both games were canceled. Their most recent meeting was last March and while that was a year ago, the result should bring some extra motivation to a very talented WKY team. It was a game at North Texas as the 2 were battling for the CUSA title. Western KY led by 6 late and UNT rallied to send the game to OT where they won and clinched the conference regular season title. Now the Hilltoppers have a chance to exact revenge and win the CUSA tourney title on Saturday night. WKY is playing their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games with their only losses coming @ Houston (6th ranked in the nation on KenPom) and a 2-point loss vs Old Dominion, a game WKY led by 13 in the 2nd half. They are 5-4 this season vs Q1 & Q2 teams, the top competition they’ve faced this year. That includes a win @ Alabama and a near upset of West Virginia. This team is ultra talented led by future NBA big man Charles Bassey (21 PPG & 8 RPG). UNT is at a bit of a disadvantage here. They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. WKY is playing their 3rd game. The Mean Green were not playing their best basketball heading into this tournament losing their final 3 regular season games. While the Hilltoppers had a winning record vs the best teams they played (Q1 & Q2) North Texas was 3-6 vs those opponents. Many of their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar in conference play but WKY should have a solid advantage in 2 areas. They are the better rebounding team (and fresher having played one less game) and they should get to the line more often here as they are #1 in CUSA in that category and UNT fouls a lot. If the Hilltoppers do get to the line a lot as we suspect, they should salt this one away as they rank 12th nationally making nearly 80% of their FT’s. Prior to their OT loss last March vs North Texas, the Hilltoppers controlled this series winning 11 straight. Western gets the win and cover and moves on to the Big Dance.

#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut +1 over Creighton, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’ve said this before leading up to the conference tournaments, we have UConn ranked as the top team in the Big East. They should be favored in this game according to our power ratings. Their top player, and best player in the Big East, James Bouknight missed 8 games in the middle of the season and the Huskies were 4-4 during his absence. With him in the line up they are 11-2 with their only losses coming by 8 @ Villanova and by 2 points in OT vs this Creighton team. They shot just 36% and made only 26% of their 3’s and still took the Blue Jays to OT. We like them to get their revenge today. The Huskies are playing lights out right now winning 6 of 7 since Bouknight rejoined the lineup. All 6 of those wins were by double digits including a 34 point win yesterday vs DePaul. Creighton is also coming off a big win over Butler yesterday and also beat the Bulldogs to close out the regular season. Prior to that game they had lost back to back games vs Villanova & Xavier. The Jays are a very good shooting team but UConn is the #1 defense in the Big East (efficiency & eFG%) and held Creighton to 42% shooting in their 2 games this season. While Creighton won both, one was without Bouknight, and they way UConn’s offense is playing right now is far better than they were playing at the time these teams met. The Huskies covered both of those games and they are a remarkable 16-4-1 ATS on the season. Definitely an undervalued commodity and we like Connecticut to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - Both teams are trending up right now as the Nuggets have won four straight, while the Grizzlies have won 3 of their last four. We like the fact the Grizz have played a game after the All-Star break (beat Washington) while Denver has yet to play. Memphis has a pair of great games against two of the best teams in the NBA at home recently as they beat the Clippers bad (122-94) and lost by 1-point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies have covered four in a row overall and have cashed 5 of the last six against the Nuggets in Memphis. The break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Denver who had won four in a row. The line on this game is the “tell” though as the Nuggets were just a -3.5-point favorites at Indiana who we rate higher than Memphis. Why the low number? In contrarian fashion we will be the opposite of the way Vegas wants you to bet. Back the home dog here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - Brooklyn is the team to beat in the East and Boston has certainly slipped in our power rankings since the start of the season. The Celtics went into the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak but prior to that had been just average. In comparison the Nets have played extremely well in their last ten games going 9-1 SU with an average differential of +10PPG. Brooklyn has shot 51% over that ten-game span and face a Celtics defense that 17th in defensive field goal percentage at 46.7%. The Nets are the 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league too at 40.7% which has helped them average 121PPG. The line on this game is clearly off as the Celtics were recently a +4.5-points underdog at home to the Clippers and the Nets rate near even to the LA in our metrics, meaning the Nets should be at least -4.5 here. When laying -4.5-points or less this season the Nets are 100% or 6-0 ATS. Bet the Nets at home in this one.

#682 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia Tech -9 over Miami FL, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - The Canes are coming off back to back upset win as they topped Pitt as a 3.5 point dog on Tuesday and Clemson as an 8 point dog yesterday. Now they are playing their 3rd straight game vs a Georgia Tech team that is playing their first game of the ACC tourney. That’s a huge advantage for the Jackets especially considering Miami’s lack of depth. The Canes have 6, count em’, 6 scholarship players on their roster right now. That obviously means their starters have logged nearly all of the minutes the last 2 days and that would be the case as they have played 351 of the 400 available minutes. That makes it really tough here coming back for the 3rd straight day in an early day game. The Canes have played WAY above their heads on offense their last 3 games. This is a team that ranks 14th in the ACC (15 team league) in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They also rank 330th nationally hitting only 29% of their 3-pointers. In their last 3 games they’ve averaged 1.14 PPP, 1.13 PPP, and 1.08 PPP from a team that averages just 0.94 PPP in ACC play. With dead legs on Thursday, we have to guess those numbers push back toward or even below their season average. Georgia Tech has had 6 days off and comes in on a 6 game winning streak. They were 11-6 in ACC play with their only losses coming vs Virginia (twice), FSU, Duke, Louisville, and Clemson. Against the bottom 4 teams in the ACC, of which Miami is one, the Jackets were 4-0 winning by an average of 15 PPG. They faces the Canes just a few weeks ago and destroyed them 87-60 on the road. Miami attempted 21 FT’s and GT attempted 4 and the Yellow Jackets still won by nearly 30. We like Tech to roll to a double digit win here.

ASA play on 8* Virginia -5 over Syracuse, Thursday 12 PM ET - We will get on the Cavaliers here in this early day ACC game on Thursday. Tony Bennett has a fantastic zone offensive scheme which showed in the first meeting of the season between these two teams when Virginia won in a blowout by 23-points. The Cavs found the voids in the Cuse zone defense and made 45% or 14 of 31 3-point attempts. Not only did they make shots on the perimeter, but they also did it on the interior by making 29 of 59 field goal attempts. Virginia is the 13th most efficient offense in all of college basketball and have the 12th best 3-point shooting team in the nation led by Sam Hauser. UVA is also one of the best defensive teams in the country allowing .923-points per possession which showed in the first meeting with Syracuse when the Cavs held the Cuse to just .823PPP. Even though this game is on a neutral floor, Syracuse has also struggled on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record, with their best win coming at NC State. If we examine the Syracuse offensive efficiency numbers, we see 7 of their 13 worst OEFF numbers came when they were away from home. We should also point out the Cuse 7 worst defensive efficiency showing this season were on the road where they allowed more than 1.105PPP in every game. Virginia had an average margin of victory this season of +8.4PPG and we’re betting the margin here is even greater than that.

#693 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgetown +9 over Villanova, Thursday at 12 Noon ET - This is just a bad line in our opinion. Nova has been overvalued all year and now without their best player Collin Gillespie in the lineup they should not be laying nearly double digits in this game. The Cats have been terrible away from home down the stretch. They’ve lost 4 straight road games with 3 of those losses coming by double digits. Three of those losses came against teams ranked in the lower half of the Big East (Butler, St Johns, and Providence). The Hoyas played very well down the stretch. After rolling Marquette 68-49 yesterday, they’ve now won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses during that stretch coming at the hands of UConn who we have rated as the best team in the conference right now. G’Town crushed Marquette despite making only 4 of 21 from beyond the arc. Three point shooting is their strength as they are #1 in that category in conference play. Now that they have played one game here at MSG, we like their chances to improve greatly from deep facing a Villanova defense that ranks 9th in the Big East and 243rd nationally defending the arc. The Wildcats won both match ups this year by 10 and 13 points but they were at full strength (Gillespie had 30 points, 7 rebounds and 11 assists in those 2 wins) and their largest lead in either contest was 13. We like Georgetown’s confidence right now and we just don’t see Nova pulling away in this game with their recent struggles away from home. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET - We like the Spurs here and the points in this Texas showdown. When you think of the Mavs you think of offense and points, but the reality is, they rank just 4-spots higher in total offense than the Spurs do and both are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. The big advantage the Spurs have here is defense. San Antonio ranks 10th in points allowed per game compared to the Mavericks ranking 18th. The Spurs can also exploit the Mavericks on the glass with the 10th best offensive rebounding margin in the NBA, going up against the Mavs 22nd ranked defensive unit. The Spurs limped into the All-Star break but were hampered by injuries. Dallas won 8 of their last twelve games which is why this line is what it is and offering value. San Antonio has been incredible on the road this season with a 9-4 SU record and a +3.9PPG average margin of victory which is 9th best in the NBA. Dallas on the other hand has a negative differential at home of minus -2.2PPG which ranks 20th. Easy call with the Spurs here and the points.

#621 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +12.5 over UNLV, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is too many points in what we expect will be a low scoring game (total as of this writing is 129). These 2 met twice this year and both games involved very few possessions (93 & 95 possessions) and nothing will change. Air Force is one of the slowest tempo teams in the country (352nd out of 357) and UNLV prefers to play slow as well ranking 9th in the MWC in pace. UNLV played host to both meetings this season and won by 5 & 10 points. The largest lead the Rebels had in either game was 14. The Falcons have had some extra time off as well to get ready for this one having last played on March 1st. UNLV played on the 3rd and the 6th of March and are now playing again on the 10th. The Rebs struggle offensively and often don’t even get into the 70’s which will make it tough to cover a number like this. They’ve been held under 70 points in 11 of their last 12 games including both games vs Air Force as we mentioned above. The Falcons rank 4th in the MWC in eFG% and facing a UNLV defense that is last in the league at defending the arc, Air Force made 24 of their 53 attempts from deep (45%) in their 2 games vs the Rebs this season. That’s a recipe for staying in this game and making it very difficult for UNLV to cover. If you throw out their games vs the very top tier teams in the MWC (CSU, Boise, Utah St, and San Diego St), Air Force has been competitive. They only have 3 double digit losses in their other 12 games vs the rest of the league. UNLV has been favored by 12 or more points only 5 times this entire season. They are 1-4 ATS in those games. We look for this game to be played in the 60’s and the points are very valuable in that situation. We like Air Force.

#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rice -4.5 over Southern Miss, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Rice had the #1 strength of schedule rating in Conference USA play, played one less game, and still finished with 2 more wins than Southern Miss. The Owls were 6-10 overall in league play (13-12 overall on the season) and in their final 10 conference games, they played 8 of those games vs CUSA’s top tier teams (Western KY, UAB, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas). So they had a very difficult schedule from mid January on to get them ready for this tourney. The 2 games during that stretch that were not vs the top teams in the league were vs this Southern Miss team. Rice beat USM in both games by 26 & 8 points and the Owls dominated trailing for a grand total of 50 seconds in the 2 games combined! Rice controlled the boards with a +19 rebounding edge in the 2 games combined and they made 14 more 3-pointers. We don’t see that changing this time around as the Owls are 2nd best 3-point shooting team in CUSA and USM scores fewer points from beyond the arc than any team in the league. On top of all that, Rice played that series without one of their top players, Chris Mullins, who averages 11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3 APG. He’s since come back and is at full strength. Southern Miss has only 8 wins on the season and they are just 4-13 in CUSA play. Seven of their eight wins have come vs teams ranked 295th or lower. The Golden Eagles struggle to score as they have reached 70 points just twice in their last 12 games while ranking 303rd nationally in offensive efficiency. Since Southern Miss head coach Ladner took over at the beginning of last season, they have a 9-26 record in CUSA play. Rice gets the win & cover on Tuesday night.

#789 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State -3 over South Dakota, Monday at 9:45 PM ET - This line opened at NDSU -1.5 and was way off according to our power ratings. Not surprisingly, minutes after it opened it moved up to -3 and we still like the value on the Bison. We have this set at -5 in favor of North Dakota State. These 2 must met to close out the regular season and split their games, both @ South Dakota. We were on South Dakota in the first game it what we thought was a great spot to grab them at home. They rewarded us with an 80-71 win, however they lost their 1st team All Conference performer, AJ Plitzuweit, toward the end of that game to a season ending knee injury. Plitzuweit averaged 19 PPG, 5 RPG, and shot 43% from beyond the arc. Huge loss to say the least. The following day South Dakota again played host to NDSU and lost by 12. The Bison were favored by 2.5 in that game on the road and now only 3 on a neutral. You can see why we like the value here. North Dakota State played what looked like a close game yesterday beating UMKC by 4. However, they led by 16 at half and by 22 in the 2nd half so the game was never really in doubt. South Dakota beat a bad Western Illinois team in their Summit League tourney opener but an already thin team before losing Plitzuweit, their starters all logged 30+ minutes and not one reserve played more than 9 minutes. One thing we took away from the 2 games these 2 played at the end of the season was the Jackrabbits can’t hang on the boards. The Bison were +21 rebounds in their 2 meetings combined which isn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Summit. They are also the best defensive team ranking #1 in eFG% allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. That will be a problem for South Dakota who relies heavily on the 3 and just lost their best shooter. The way the first game played out, the Bison were down late and committed a bunch of fouls to send SD to the line in an attempt to come back. South Dakota, a very good FT shooting team, was +18 made FT’s in that game. In the rematch when the points from the stripe evened out, NDSU won by double digits. The Bison foul fewer than any team in the league so that is not what normally happens in their games. We expect the Bison to be ahead for most of this game an if they need to salt this game away with FT’s late, they make 76% from the line. We’ll lay the small number here and take North Dakota State.

ASA top play on 10* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina

#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Marquette had a poor stretch from late January into February but they pulled out of their funk and their playing perhaps their best basketball of the season to close it out. The Golden Eagles were dealt an extremely tough scheduling situation to close out the year as they are coming off SIX straight road games. This is their home finale and their first game at home in a full month. They went 3-3 over that 6 game road stretch including wins over North Carolina (by double digits) and over Butler who has been playing great at home including wins over Villanova & Creighton, the 2 top teams in the league. They’ve now won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road as we mentioned) and now have big time momentum coming home. Xavier is heading in the opposite direction losing 4 of their 6 games since coming back from a 2 week Covid break which started in early February. They are just 1-4 SU this season on the road in conference play. XU has shot just 42% since their return from their hiatus and they’ve failed to top 68 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East hitting only 29% on the season which makes it tough to win on the road. The Musketeers beat Marquette at home by 3 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer earlier this season. Just a little more fuel for the Golden Eagles. The favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we love the momentum Marquette brings into this one as they finally get to play a home game.

#710 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Dakota State -14.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 6:45 PM ET - Both of these teams love to play fast (Omaha 62 nationally in pace / South Dakota St 50th nationally in pace) and that plays right into SDSU’s strength. They are a fantastic offensive team that averages 80 PPG but is fully capable of pushing into the 90’s in this game. That’s because we expect a LOT of possessions and Omaha’s defense is bad. They rank 9th in the Summit in defensive efficiency and they rank 317th nationally in scoring defense giving up 78 PPG. These 2 haven’t played this year but if we look at how the Jackrabbits did offensively vs the lower tier defensive teams in the league, this could get ugly. They faced North Dakota & Western Illinois each twice in conference play and they averaged 88 PPG in those games. Those 2 teams, along with Omaha are the worst defenses in the Summit. SDSU ranks #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency, 2-point FG%, and 3-point FG%. They rank 2nd nationally making over 40% of their 3-pointers and Omaha ranks 336th defensively guarding the arc. We have no doubt they’ll have a huge offensive game. The problem for Omaha is they’ll get plenty of possessions but they are a poor offensive team. That simply gives SDSU more of a chance to pull away to a larger lead. Omaha ranks 315th nationally on offensive efficiency and 308th in eFG%. South Dakota State’s defense ranks 4th in the Summit in efficiency and when facing the other top 3 defenses (UMKC, North Dakota State, and South Dakota), the Mavericks topped 70 points just once in 6 games. To make matters worse, UNO played their final 6 games without their leading scorer Marlin Ruffin and it looks like he’ll miss this game as well. This team won only 3 conference games this season and 2 of them were against Denver who finished 1-13 in the league. We don’t think the Mavs can keep up in this game and unless they make have to get into the upper 70’s or even 80 just to cover this. Lay the points.

#630 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence +5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - Nova won the Big East regular season title earlier this week beating Creighton at home. They will be the #1 seed in the upcoming conference tourney regardless of what happens in this game. The biggest news coming out of their win over Creighton was the fact they lost PG Gillespie for the rest of the season to a knee injury. That is devastating for the Wildcats as he is their best player and their floor leader. Gillespie averages 14 PPG and 5 assists per game and this will severely limit their depth as they were very thin in that regard to begin with. The Cats rank 328th nationally in bench minutes and often go with a 7 man rotation with an 8th playing very sparingly. They’ll need players to step up to fill their bench minuets that haven’t played much this season. On top of that, Villanova has been shaky on the road down the stretch. They have lost 3 straight on the road, all by double digits vs St Johns, Creighton, and Butler. Their defense as a whole has been way down this year ranking 11th (last) in the Big East in eFG% defense. On the road it’s been worse allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3’s. Their last 2 roadies the Cats defense allowed 1.11 PPP vs Butler (who averages 0.95 PPP in conference play) and 1.34 PPP vs Creighton (who averages 1.08 PPP in the Big East). Providence has had their ups & downs with an 8-10 conference record but they do have some solid home wins over Xavier, UConn, Marquette, and Seton Hall. They average 75 PPG at home and have one of the top offensive players in the league in David Duke. Defensively the Friars match up well in this game as they are the #2 three point defense in the Big East and Nova relies heavily on scoring from behind the arc. Now without Gillespie, their most consistent 3-point shooter who has taken more 3’s than anyone else on the Cats, this will be a tough game for Villanova. Providence will bring it in the home finale while Nova has nothing to play for. Take the points.

#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso +7.5 over Missouri State, Friday at 9 PM ET - Valpo is playing their best basketball over the last month or so. They are 7-11 on the season in MVC play but 7-8 SU their last 15. Four of those eight wins have been tight games with Valpo losing by 7 or less. We’re getting some value her because the Crusaders lost both games vs Mizzou State by 13 & 10 points way back in early January with Valparaiso wasn’t playing well. They were 3.5 point underdogs in those game and now getting 8 = value in our opinion. Down the stretch this team beat Drake (2nd rated team in the MVC), lost by 2 vs Loyola Chicago (top game in the conference) and beat Indiana State (4th ranked team in the league). The Crusaders are now 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs teams with above .500 SU records. Missouri State has won 7 of their last 8 games but they played the worst teams in the Missouri Valley down the stretch. Valpo has had a number if players in the rotation miss games this season but they are at full strength now and they are better than their 7-11 conference record. Defensively they’ve been solid over the last month allowing only 2 of their last 9 opponents to get to 70 points. The Crusaders were 4-1 ATS this year as dogs of 7 or more in conference play and we like this one to go to the wire. Take Valparaiso and the points.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Sun -6.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10PM ET - The Warriors could feel the effects of a close game last night in Portland where the key starters saw 30+ minutes of action, while the Suns were at home resting. Phoenix is coming off an impressive win over the Lakers in which Devin Booker was ejected in the 3rd quarter and the second unit played the majority of the 4th quarter in a convincing road win. Golden State relies heavily on Steph Curry to carry the offensive load while Draymond Green does all the dirty work on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are 3-6 SU their last nine road games and have a loss here earlier this season by 21-points. The Warriors rank 23rd in the NBA with a negative road point differential of minus -4.3PPG. Phoenix is 11-6 SU at home and have the 3rd best average margin of victory at home of +7.2PPG. Both teams are near even when it comes to offensive statistics, but the Suns hold a decisive advantage defensively allowing 5 less points per game than Golden State and rank 2nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense. Golden State is 6-17-1 ATS their last 24 games playing without rest and that trend continues here.

#727 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State +11.5 over Baylor, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for a Baylor team that frankly isn’t playing to the dominant level they were earlier in the season. The Bears just beat West Virginia in OT on Tuesday night to clinch their first regular season Big 12 Title in 71 years! Now with their Big 12 tournament seeding set at #1, they have to play 48 hours later vs an Oklahoma State team that is playing their best basketball of the season. Baylor has played 3 games since returning from a 21 day covid break and as we mentioned, they haven’t been all that great. They rallied from 17 down to beat a bad Iowa State team (0-16 in the conference) by 5, lost by 13 @ Kansas, and then beat WVU in OT on Tuesday. They’ve hit only 43% of their shots over that 3 game stretch and they’ve been out rebounded in 2 of those games. Far from dominating. Okie State has won 8 of their last 10 including a sweep of a very good Oklahoma team their last 2 games. They’ve been impressive on the road with a 7-3 record including wins @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, and @ Marquette. The Cowboys 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come by an average of 6 PPG. These two met in January when Baylor was destroying pretty much everyone and the Bears topped OSU by 15. The Cowboys played that game without their star freshman Cade Cunningham (20 PPG & 6 RPG) who might just be the #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. They were also without starter Rondel Walker who averages 9 PPG & 3 RPG. Prior to OSU losing earlier this year and obviously not at 100%, this was a tight series with the 4 match ups the last 2 seasons decided by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points. If this was Baylor’s final home game and Senior night, we might be reluctant to fade them even though this is a bad scheduling situation. However, they host Texas Tech this weekend for their home finale. We think OSU can give Baylor a big time scare here and taking the generous points is the play.

#686 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Villanova -4 over Creighton, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Nova as a win pretty much clinches the Big East regular season title. It’s also their final home game so they are set to send off 2 of the better players in program history with a win. Starting PG Gillespie (1200 career points) and starting F Samuels are both seniors potentially playing their final game at home. Speaking of home, the Cats have been great in their own arena this year with a perfect 8-0 record and an average margin of victory of +16. Going back even further, Nova has won 63 of their last 70 home games and they have won 6 of their last 7 @ home vs the Jays. However, they did lose last year at home vs Creighton so they should have a little extra for this one. On top of that, the Wildcats traveled to Creighton on Feb 13th as a 2-point favorite and lost 86-70. The Blue Jays shot nearly 60% in that game and averaged a ridiculous 1.34 PPP. It was a terrible defensive performance and the Cats bounced back a few days later to beat a very good UConn team here at home. Speaking of bouncing back, Villanova had 3 losses on the season entering last weekend and they rebounded to win their following game after each of those. They laid an egg on Sunday @ Butler losing by 12 for their 4th loss of the season and we expect a huge effort in this one. They shot just 2 of 27 from three point range in that loss (7%) one of their worst performances in the Jay Wright era. Now they are back at home where they make 40% of their 3’s and average 81 PPG. Villanova was favored by 2 @ Creighton and now they are laying just 4 at home, off a loss, on Senior night. Like this spot for the Wildcats.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -1.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Badgers are not living up to expectations this year and they are flat out playing poorly right now. They are just 5-6 SU their last 11 games and their wins during that stretch have come against Nebraska, Northwestern (twice), Maryland, and Penn State. Against the top 6 teams in the Big 10 they are 0-6 SU this season. They haven’t faced Purdue yet, but the Boilers fall into the top 6 category ranking 6th in the league. Offensively UW has been really struggling as they have not gotten to 70 points in a full month. During that stretch they are shooting just 35% as a team. On the road this season the Badgers are hitting just 39% of their shots overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. Purdue has been very tough at home with a 9-1 record and their only loss coming to Michigan, the top team in the conference. How has Wisconsin done when traveling to Purdue? Terrible to put it lightly. The Badgers are 4-41 SU all time at Mackey Arena and their last with there came in 2014, the year Wisconsin went to the Final 4. While the Badgers are struggling, Purdue is playing much better having won 9 of their last 12 games. On offense they have had problems making 3-pointers, however the Boilers are much better at home in this area hitting 35% from deep and the Wisconsin defense has allowed their last 4 opponents to combine to shoot 46% from beyond the arc. Last year Purdue was favored by 4 in this match up at home and won 70-51. Now we’re getting them at a lower number vs a Wisconsin team that is headed in the wrong direction. Purdue wins and covers this one.

#841 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -7 over Nebraska, Monday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game for the NCAA bubble team Rutgers. They are 9-9 in Big 10 play and cannot afford a loss at last place Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights are in a much better situation for this match up as they have had off since their win over Indiana last Wednesday. Nebraska, on the other hand, continues their brutal scheduling with their 5th game in 10 days. Since returning from their Covid break in early February, this will be the Huskers 12th game in 24 days. Nebraska has just 2 wins in their last 16 games including a win over Minnesota on Saturday here at home. That was a 4 point win over a Gopher team that is trending downward losing 8 of their last 10 games and they played on Saturday without starting guard Kalscheur and starting center Robbins who were out with injury. The Huskers shot WAY above their season averages hitting 55% for the game (they average 41% on the season) and 53% from 3-point range (they average 33% for the season) and were still leading by only 1 point with under 20 seconds remaining the game. This is a bad match up for Nebraska. They struggle big time on offense ranking 14th (dead last) in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency. Rutgers defense has been exceptional all season ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Knights defense also creates a lot of turnovers ranking 2nd in the conference while Rutgers has been careless with the ball all season long coughing it up almost 20% of the time which is last in the Big 10. Lastly, the Nebraska defense excels at guarding the arc and that’s about it. However, Rutgers relies very little on the 3 point shot with only 28% of their points coming from deep. When these 2 met in Lincoln last year, Rutgers was favored by 5 points and won by 17. We see another double digit win for the Scarlet Knights so we’re laying the points.

#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada +8 over Utah State, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played on Friday night here in Logan, Utah and the Aggies came away with a 75-72 win. It was a bad spot for Nevada as they were coming off a 19 day Covid layoff and we expected them to be rusty. They were as USU built a 16-point halftime lead and the Wolfpack made only 8 field goals in the first 20 minutes. They fell down by as many as 21 points but we were impressed with Nevada’s resolve. They battled back and nearly pulled off the win. Head coach Steve Alford admitted his team looked rusty for the first 25 minutes of the game but looked much more like themselves in the final 15 minutes. That’s a big positive heading into this game. Before their long layoff this Nevada team was very good. They won 6 of their 8 games before their hiatus including topping Boise State twice and the Broncos were in 1st place heading into this weekend before dropping 2 very tight games vs San Diego State, the highest rated team in the MWC. They are 9-6 in league play and all 6 of their losses have come by margins of 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 7 points. Utah State has faced the top 5 teams in the league a combined 7 times. They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in those games and they are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs top 100 teams (Nevada falls into that category). Their starting PG Worster (10 PPG & 4 APG) has now missed 3 straight games and he is questionable at best again on Sunday. On Friday Nevada shot just 34% from inside the arc and attempted only 14 FT’s. On the season in MWC play they average 52% inside the arc and they get to the FT line more than any other team with 22% of their points coming from the line (they make 77% of those FT’s). Even with that (they were also -7 made FTs) they came back and took this Utah State team to the wire. With their momentum in the final 15 minutes on Friday, we think the Wolfpack will play much better on Sunday. They have covered 16 of their 21 games this year and we expect another tight one here. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 10 PM ET - It’s always a tough Pac 12 road trip to play Utah & Colorado back to back just 2 days apart. Two high altitude home courts which can wear on teams having to make that Thursday / Saturday trip. UCLA is in that spot today. They topped Utah on Thursday night and now must attempt to take down @ Colorado team that excels at home. The Buffs are 9-1 at home this season and their only loss here was vs Utah in late January, a game Colorado led by 20 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining and fell apart. The Buffs have won 30 of their last 34 home games and one of those losses was last year vs this UCLA team. Colorado was a 10-point favorite in that game (now laying just 6 this year – line value) and it was their home finale so you can bet they remember that. On top of that, the Buffs lost a tight game @ UCLA earlier this season getting nipped 65-62. Double revenge for a team that is very, very tough to beat at home. Colorado has a +19 PPG differential at home this season while hitting almost 50% of their shots and allowing just 39%. They are coming off a home game in which they dominated USC 80-62. We have Colorado power rated as the best team in the Pac 12 and USC a close 2nd. UCLA sits in first place in the Pac 12 but we have them rated as the 4th best team in the league and they have only played 3 road games this year vs the top 6 teams in the Pac 12 and they are 1-2 SU in those games. In all of their road games this year, the Bruins are getting outscored 68-69 and they’ve allowed opponents to hit almost 40% from 3 which could be a problem as Colorado ranks 3rd in the Pac 12 from deep. If this game is decided by FT’s, we love our chances with CU ranking #1 in the NATION hitting 82% of their freebies. Great spot here for Colorado and we’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +1 over Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - We like the situation to fade the Pacers here who are playing the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. Indiana lost a big game last night against the Celtics with four of their five starters logging heavy minutes. That’s a big concern considering they rank 25th in bench scoring in the NBA and lack depth. The Pacers will have a tough time scoring here against a Knicks team that is 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in FG% defense and 1st in 3-point percentage D. New York allows just 1.087 points per possession which ranks 3rd overall in the NBA. New York has struggled offensively for the season but seem to have found their rhythm after putting up 140 points against the Kings. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games including 4 of their last five at home. The play here is New York.

#682 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over North Dakota State, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is just the 2nd home game this month for South Dakota. That was their most recent game and a win one week ago vs Nebraska Omaha and prior to that the Coyotes had lost 3 of 4 but those games were all on the road (4 straight road games). At home this year they are perfect in Summit League play and their only home loss this season was vs Drake, who is a top 25 type team when fully healthy. Their last home loss in conference play was last season vs this North Dakota State team (lost by 3) so some extra motivation for the Coyotes here. In fact, they have won 15 of their last 16 conference home games with that only loss coming vs NDSU. The Bison sit a half game behind South Dakota in 2nd place in the Summit but their road resume has been shaky at best. They are 3-6 SU on the road this year and their conference games on the road (6 of them) have been vs UMKC twice (ranked 215th and split the 2 games), North Dakota twice (ranked 299th and split the 2 games), and Western Illinois (ranked 305th). They have not played any of the top teams in the league on the road this season. On top of that, the Bison haven’t played a road game in a full month! Every game they’ve played in February has been at home. South Dakota averages 84 PPG, 54% shooting, and 45% from 3-point range at home. They also make 81% of their FT’s in conference play which is best in the league. They are tough to stop here at the Sanford Sports Complex. North Dakota State struggles on offense at times and they are averaging only 66 PPG on the road this season. We think they’ll have a hard time scoring enough to stay in this one. With the line set where it is, we basically just need South Dakota to win this game at home. We’ll take our chances with that.

#676 ASA PLAY ON 8* California +9.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Cal has been extremely competitive at home this season and we this is a tough spot for Oregon. The Bears have just a 3-16 record in conference play but their home point differential in Pac 12 play is just minus 3.7 PPG. They beat the highest rated team in the conference here topping Colorado by 9 points. The 2nd best team in the league, USC, the Bears took to the wire at home losing by 8 in a game they trailed by 2 with less than 2:00 minutes remaining. They took the 4th rated team in the league to the end as well at home losing by 4. In other words, this team has shown they can play with the top teams in the conference here and can beat them (Colorado). Oregon is in a rough spot here. They are playing their 3 straight road game since Monday. The Ducks lost @ USC by 14 on Monday, squeaked by Stanford by 3 on Thursday, and now face Cal on the road less than 48 hours later. The Ducks win over Stanford on Thursday 71-68 was an impressive, tight win on the surface, however the Cardinal played that game with their top player, Oscar da Silva, who is one of the top players in the conference. Don’t be surprised if Oregon is a bit flat here facing a team they already beat by 13 at home this year and a home game vs Arizona on deck Monday. The Ducks are 5-2 on the road in Pac 12 play but those wins have come by 2, 3, 3, 6, and 11 points. Cal has lost only 1 game at home this season by more than 11 points. It’s also the Bears final home game and we expect a huge effort here. Don’t be at all surprised if this game goes to the wire.

#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -7.5 over Nevada, Friday at 9 PM ET - Utah State finally gets to play at home. They have played 5 straight road games with their most recent home game coming back on January 21st. They’ve had a huge home court advantage over the years winning 37 of their last 41 games in Logan and they are one of the few teams in the MWC that is allowing fans so that helps as well. The Aggies had a 13 day break from Feb 4 thru Feb 17 so they were a bit rusty last week in their back to back games @ Boise State, the 1st place team in the conference. Even with that, this Aggie team played quite well taking the Broncos to the wire in each losing by 9 (it was a 1-point game with 4:30 remaining) and losing by 4. USU led both games at halftime but shot just 7 of 30 from 3-point range in the 2 games combined and they were -16 made FT’s. Despite that, they nearly pulled off wins vs 14-3 (in MWC play) Boise State. Now back at home in must win mode we expect them to play very well. They are catching Nevada in a bad spot. The Wolfpack are just back from a Covid hiatus and haven’t played in 20 days. They have a solid 9-5 MWC record but they are 0-4 SU on the road in conference play. That’s right, only 4 of their 14 conference games have been true road games. We expect Nevada to struggle on offense after their long layoff and it doesn’t help they are playing the top defense in the Mountain West. Utah State ranks #1 in defensive efficiency, 3-point % defense, 2-point % defense, and blocked shots. It’ll be tough for a Nevada team that shoots just 42% on the road (31% from 3) to get any offensive rhythm in this game. USU has already proven they can beat the best in the league here at home as they swept the top rated team San Diego State. The host has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series and we like Utah State to win this by double digits.

#683 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -7.5 over Butler, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting one of the top teams in the Big East here coming off a loss. Seton Hall lost at Georgetown 81-75 on Saturday. The Hoyas host lights out hitting 50% of their shot overall and 62% of their 3-pointers. Even with that fantastic offensive effort by Georgetown, the Pirates were in the game all the way and lost by just 6. Prior to that loss Seton Hall had won 6 of their previous 8 road games with their lone road losses during this stretch coming by 2 points @ Villanova , the top team in the Big East, and @ Creighton, the 2nd rated team in the conference. Butler, since coming back from their month long Covid break, is just 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points in OT. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 their last 6 home games with 2 of those wins coming in OT. Butler has played 10 home games this year and they’ve actually been outscored in those games. Butler just lost by double digits vs Xavier and the Bulldogs were without 3 of their top players in that game. The 3 players that were out vs Xavier (Nze, Thompson, and Hodges) combine to average 30 PPG and 17 RPG on the season. They are all questionable again for this game. Butler’s offense already struggles with those guys at full strength as they rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%. They have averaged just 57 PPG over their last 3 games and if those guys are out or not at 100%, this team is in trouble on offense. Seton Hall has a big edge on offense (ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency) and if this one comes down to FT’s, the Pirates hit 77% of their freebies in Big East play while Butler makes only 63% from the line. The road team has covered 5 straight in this series and we like Seton Hall to roll in this game.

ASA play on 8* LA Clippers -12 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - We loved our winning play on the Wiz last night plus the points over the Lakers, but given the circumstances will play against them here. This line opened with the Clippers as a 10-point favorite and has been bet to minus 12 as of this writing. That’s interesting considering more money and tickets have been bet on the red hot Wizards. In contrarian fashion, we like the Clippers who are off a home loss and getting healthy. We are betting the Wizards don’t play Westbrook tonight who has sat the second nights of back-to-backs for load management and Washington doesn’t have the depth to overcome that loss. The Clippers key advantages are: the 5th highest scoring team in the NBA versus a Wiz defense that is 29th in the league in points allowed. L.A. is 3rd in overall field goal percentage, 1st in 3-point shooting offensively. Washington is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA at 34%. The Clippers are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS off a loss this year and will be focused here. Washington got a huge OT win last night against the Lakers and expended a ton of energy to get that W. Beal played 44+ minutes and won’t be able to carry the load on consecutive nights. Bet the Clippers.

#635 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut -4 over Georgetown, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We like the value we’re getting with UConn in this game. The Huskies are just 7-6 in Big East play but they are much better than their record. That’s because their top player, James Bouknight, one of the top NBA prospects in the Big East, is now back in the lineup after missing 8 games. He’s been back for 2 games, played 60 minutes, scored 40 points, and 14 rebounds. With Bouknight in the lineup, the Huskies have a 6-2 record with their only losses to Creighton in OT and Villanova by 8 on Saturday. With him out of the lineup, UConn has a record of 4-4. We’re getting the Huskies off a tough loss @ Villanova on Saturday in a game where they made only 36% of their shots, 26% of their 3-pointers, and were -6 made FT’s and still only lost by 8 on the road vs the top team in the conference. We expect a strong performance off that loss. Georgetown is on the opposite end of the spectrum coming into this game. They are off a huge 81-75 home win over Seton Hall as a 4.5 point underdog. The Hoyas shot the lights out in that win hitting 50% of their shots overall and a ridiculous 62% of their 3-pointers and the game was still nip and tuck the entire 2nd half. We have a feeling the won’t shoot like that in this game vs a UConn team that ranks #1 in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Plus this game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington DC, home of the Wizards, and this will be G’Towns first game here this season so home court advantage, if there was any, is out the window. At home this season the Hoyas were +4.5 vs Seton Hall over the weekend, +4.5 vs Marquette, +4.5 vs Providence, and +7.5 vs Creighton. Based on those numbers, we’re getting value with UConn who we have rated as the 3rd best team in the Big East when fully healthy. We like UConn to win and cover here.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +7 over LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you’ve followed ASA for any length of time you know stats, averages, numbers drive our handicapping process. But there also other factors that go into it and we couldn’t help but notice how tired LeBron looked in the Lakers last game against the Heat. James played 37+ minutes, scored 19-points on 7 of 21 shooting, with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. It’s clear the real MVP of the Lakers is Anthony Davis and without him on the court the Lakers and the aging James are good, but not great. We are ignoring the full season statistics for both teams in this matchup and focusing on the last five games for each. Without AD the Lakers offensive efficiency numbers have plummeted as have their defensive efficiency ratings. The Lakers have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last five games they rank 14th. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU their last five games and off two straight losses against Brooklyn and Miami. The Wizards on the other hand look like they’ve started to figure things out. Washington has won 4 straight games and they’ve come against quality competition (Boston, Houston, Denver & Portland). The Wiz have one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA on the season but in their last five games they rank 4th best. In their last five games the Wiz are shooting 46.5% and holding foes to 43% shooting. In that same span of those games the Lakers are shooting 45.5% and allowing 47.6%. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS when playing a below .500 opponent this season and this number is too much for the short-handed Lakers to cover. Wizards on a 5-1 ATS run their last six against a team with a winning record.

#870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3.5 over Oregon, Monday at 9 PM ET - We like the line value AND the situation for USC here. They were just favored by 6 at home vs Arizona, a team we have power rated almost dead even with Oregon, but now they are laying just 3.5. The Trojans are coming off a home loss, just their 4th loss of the season (now 18-4 record, vs the Wildcats. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Arizona was coming off back to back losses and it was a huge game for the talented Wildcats. USC shot just 42% in the game (they average 47% at home) and averaged just 1.03 PPP and their season average is 1.14 PPG so it was an underwhelming performance from the Trojans. At home USC has won 28 of their last 32 games and their average home margin of victory is +13 this season. The Trojans were on a huge roll winning 13 of their previous 14 coming into Saturday’s game vs Arizona. Oregon is coming of back to back huge home wins over Colorado & Utah. Both games went to the wire with the Ducks winning by 4 & 3 points. Now this is a tough spot for the Ducks as they are playing their 5th game in 12 days. USC has been a great bounce back team covering 9 of their last 11 games following an outright loss. Their 6 home wins in Pac 12 play have come by margins of 17, 18, 13, 8, 26, and 18 points. The Ducks have 4 conference road wins, but three of those have coming vs Utah, Arizona State, and Washington, all who have losing records in the Pac 12 (and losing overall records). The Trojans have the BEST defense in the Pac 12 in terms of defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Over the weekend they allowed Arizona to hit 1.16 PPP which was their worst defensive effort by far this season in Pac 12 play. Expect USC to play very well on defense tonight vs Oregon and we like the Trojans to pick up the win and cover.

#798 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State +2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We had this one power rated to OSU -3 so we feel there is some value with the Buckeyes. Michigan is 10-1 in the Big 10 and on top of the conference but they are still getting back into a groove after a long 3 week layoff. Since they’ve come back they’ve only played 2 games beating Wisconsin on the road and Rutgers at home. Their win @ Wisconsin may look like a big win but the Badgers have really been struggling over the last few weeks and UW actually led for much of that game including by 14 at half. The Wolverines other game was a 7 point home win over Rutgers. Their offense wasn’t great in either game as they combined to make only 43% of their shots in their first 2 games back from the Covid break, well below their season average of 49%. In their first 2 games they’ve underperformed both offensively and defensively on a points per possession basis when comparing to their overall conference stats on the season. The Wolverines road schedule to date has been one of the easiest in the Big 10 as they have not faced any of the top 4 rated teams in the conference on the road yet this season. Until Sunday. Ohio State is playing as well as any team in the country right now. They have won 7 straight and 10 of their last 11 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Purdue by just 2 points. That was a game the Buckeyes shot just 37%, played without their starting PG, and still led by 5 with under 2:00 remaining. OSU hasn’t had any long Covid interruptions and they are in a groove right now. They are 12-4 in the conference and 8 of those wins have come by double digits. If they want any shot at a Big 10 title, they have to win this home game vs first place Michigan. They are catching the Wolverines at a perfect time as they are still trying to get their legs back under them after their break. The host has covered 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and where the line sits now at -1, all we need OSU to do is win this game. We think they will.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Wiz have the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA when playing on the road at minus -8.1PPG and hold a 3-12 SU road record. Portland has been better on the road than they’ve been at home this season, but they have won three straight home games and are on a red hot 6-game winning streak overall. The Blazers current run of 6 straight wins have come by an average of 8.6PPG. On the season the Blazers have some disturbing defensive numbers but so do the Wizards as both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in efficiency numbers. In their last five games though the Blazers are averaging 1.257 points per possession which is 5th best in the NBA. Even though Washington has won 3 straight games, their offensive efficiency their last five games ranks 22nd in the league and they have a negative differential of -2.6PPG. The biggest separator here is 3-point shooting. Washington holds the 25th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA allowing 38.4% while Portland is the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.9%. The All-Star starters were recently released and MVP candidate Damian Lillard got snubbed so expect a motivated effort from him here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS their last eight road games, Blazers 6-1 ATS their last 7 at home against a team with a losing record.

#618 ASA PLAY ON 8* Citadel +3.5 over VMI, Saturday at 1 PM ET - VMI is coming off a huge home upset over ETSU and we will fade them here on the road. VMI is just 1-9 SU on the road this year and they are favored in this game? Ridiculous. They have won only 4 of their last 36 true road games and they have no business being favored in this game. VMI was favored by just 3.5 at HOME in their other meeting this year and won by only 7 despite shooting 52% overall for the game and 87 % from the line making 26 FTs. Citadel, despite their 4-9 overall SOCON record, as a 4-3 record on home in conference play including wins over ETSU & Wofford and a tight 6 point loss vs Furman (the 3 of the 4 best teams in the conference). We really like this match up for Citadel at home as VMI relies HEAVILY on the 3-point shot and Citadel ranks 2nd in the conference at defending the 3 allowing only 32% on league games. Citadel has also has some bad luck so to speak with opponents hitting nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play which is the highest in the SOCON. VMI has been a road favorite just 4 times since the start of the 2015 season and they lost 2 of those games outright. We like Citadel to win this one outright. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -2 over Toledo, 9 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Buffalo is favored in this game against a Toledo team that is 12-3 in conference action? The Rockets have been favored in 11 straight games and 18 of twenty-three this season and are now a dog to 9-6 Buffalo? When we examine conference games only we find the Rockets have the best offensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.187PPP but Buffalo has the best defensive efficiency allowing just .929PPP. The Bulls offense isn’t as good as the Rockets, but they are 4th in offensive efficiency and will have an advantage over Toledo’s 6th ranked DEFF unit. Most of the other key statistical advantages Toledo would normally have over other teams are nullified by Buffalo’s defensive statistics. The biggest advantage the Bulls have is that they are the best offensive rebound team in the MAC compared to a Toledo defense that is LAST in the league in defensive rebounding. Buffalo is 29-9 SU their last 38 at home with an average margin of victory of +13PPG. The Bulls are playing extremely confident right now and will be primed for a game against the top team in the MAC here.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +8.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35PM ET - The Bulls have played better than expectations this season as evidenced by their overall winning spread record of 16-11 versus the number. Chicago has a losing overall record of 12-15 SU but their average loss margin is -0.8PPG which gets you a lot of covers as an underdog. In fact, the Bulls are on a wallet stuffing 10-1 ATS streak as a road underdog. The Bulls are more than capable of trading points with the 76ers with a top 10 scoring offense, 8th best overall shooting percentage in the NBA and the 7th best 3-point percentage at 38%. Philadelphia is 19-10 SU on the year with an average margin of victory of +3PPG. When playing at home the Sixers have a +/- differential of +6PPG which is 6th best in the league but still not enough to cover this spread against the Bulls. Philly is 5-2 ATS their last seven games at home as a favorite but only of those covers were as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, when laying 7 or more points at home the 76ers are on a 1-3 ATS slide. Philly has a pair of bigger games on deck coming against Toronto and may look past this Bulls team. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +1.5 over Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here who are rested and facing a Heat team coming off a big game against the Warriors last night AND have the Lakers looming on deck. Can you blame the Heat if they look past a Kings team that has lost four straight at home? Sacramento put together a four-game winning streak, prior to the 0-4 run, versus solid competition with wins against the Pelicans, Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers. A big reason the Kings have a losing record is their lack of defense, but Miami’s offensive numbers have been just as bad as the Kings defense. The Heat are 4-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Let’s not forget Miami was bad on the road a year ago too with a 14-19 SU record and a -2.7 margin of victory. We expect the Kings to get a solid home win here given the scheduling circumstances.

#705 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - This was supposed to be a home game for the Lobos but because of the state of New Mexico’s Covid related restrictions, they are not able to play at home this season. Thus, they’ve been on the road for ALL of their 16 games this season. Their “home” games thus far have been played in Lubbock, TX, St George, UT, and now tonight’s game will be in Colorado Springs. Not surprisingly, the Lobos are 1-11 in conference play during their disrupted season. They have not played a game since January 30th and they had to completely cancel their series with San Diego State a few weeks ago because they had just 5 scholarship players available to play due to injuries and players recently opting out of the remainder of the season. Head coach Weir mentioned his team just started practicing again a few days ago and a number of walkons who were not traveling with the team earlier this year are now with the team and could be in the rotation. The Lobos hopped on a bus on Tuesday morning to make the long 6 hour trip to Air Force for their “home” game. We have a feeling this team has cashed it for the season in a situation that is as tough as any in the country. Offensively they have been terrible this season. They rank dead last in the MWC in efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG% and FT%. Not a huge surprise with all of the adversity and distractions they’ve faced. Wyoming is just 4-8 in MWC play but they’ve played a very tough slate already facing San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, and Boise State (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) all twice this season. While New Mexico has been terrible on offense, the Cowboys are averaging 75 PPG (Lobos average 63 PPG) and they rank in the top 90 nationally in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. Wyoming is coming in on a 4 game losing streak losing 2 vs San Diego State and Colorado State and now they take a HUGE step down in competition. While this is a “home” game for the Lobos, they have yet to play in Colorado Springs this season while Wyoming has played here twice already this year losing by 3 to Air Force and then following that up with a 19 point win the next night. We can’t imagine New Mexico even wants to be here with all that has gone on in their program and we look for Wyoming to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - This game has some interesting movement on the spread as the line opened with Boston a larger favorite, got public support, and the line moved in the opposite direction. That’s a strange move consider the Hawks are just 2-8 SU their last ten games and have lost four straight. Granted we have lost a little value in this number, but the Hawks are the play here. In their last five games the Celtics have a 2-3 SU record with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Boston’s offensive efficiency is down considerably in their last five games but they’re defensive efficiency numbers are good. In comparison, the Hawks have lost four of five, yet they have better OEFF numbers than the Celtics but worse DEFF. Atlanta has a plus/minus differential of minus -4.8PPG in this five game streak which isn’t far off this spread. The Hawks are 5-7 SU on the road this season but have a positive differential of +1.2PPG which is 13th best in the NBA. The Hawks are very good at defending the 3-point line (2nd best in the NBA) and negate the Celtics strength of 3-point shooting (6th). Boston is coming off a huge win last night over Denver and let down a little here. Bet the Hawks.

#664 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh -3.5 over NC State, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been playing much better as of late. Their last 3 games were an 11-point home win vs Va Tech (3rd place team in the ACC), a tight 7-point loss @ UVA (1st place team in the ACC) and a 6-point loss @ Georgia Tech (6-1 at home in ACC play). They catch NC State coming off a huge in-state rivalry game vs Duke on Saturday. The Wolfpack were 3-point home dogs in that game vs the Devils and they got whooped by 16 at home vs a team that has been struggling. We expect NC State to struggle here coming off a huge home game in which they laid an egg. The Pack is just 1-5 SU on the road this year with their only win coming vs Boston College, the lowest rated team in the ACC. State lost their best player, Devon Daniels (17 PPG / 5 RPG), at the end of January to a season ending injury. Since his loss, NCSU is 1-4 SU with their lone win coming vs BC. Now they may also be without starting guard Beverly who was injured in their home loss vs Duke last weekend. NC State steps in with the worst eFG% defense in the conference and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency and we expect them to struggle vs a underrated Pitt offense that averages 75 PPG at home. This is a huge home game for the 9-7 Pitt Panthers as them make a final push for the NCAA tourney. Lay the small number here.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a straight up loss as a double-digit favorite and we like them to bounce back here against the Raptors who beat them in the conference finals two years ago. Milwaukee is coming off a tough six game West coast road trip with three straight losses but now return home where they are 9-2 SU on the season. Milwaukee’s two losses at home this year came against the Lakers and Jazz who are arguably the two best teams in the league. The Bucks have the second-best overall point differential in the NBA at +8.1PPG, the highest NBA average at home at +13.5PPG. The Bucks last three home wins have come by 20, 28 and 14-points. The Raptors are playing their 7th road game in their last eight contests and have a 6-9 SU road record on the year. Toronto’s road differential is 13th in the league at +1.2PPG. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well and don’t defend it well but Milwaukee is the better overall shooting team at 49.2% compared to 45.1% for Toronto. Since 2018 the Bucks are 76-15 SU on their home floor with an average margin of victory of +13.2PPG. Lastly, earlier this season the Bucks were favored by -6.5-points at Toronto (in Miami) and now laying less here.

#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island -3 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Here we have a team that has a 9-12 overall record favored by a full 3 points over a team that has an 11-6 overall record. Hmmm… We like the home favorite here. Rhode Island is coming in off 4 straight losses and they are in desperate need of a win. It’s their home finale and we expect the Rams to play very well. The opener of that 4 games losing streak for URI was a 67-56 loss @ Dayton, tonight’s opponent. In that loss the Rams top player Fatts Russell (15 PPG) was battling an injury and played a season low 19 minutes and scored a season low 4 points. HE missed URI’s next game which was a 1-point home loss vs VCU, the A10’s 1st place team and 2nd highest rated team. The Rams also lost by 7 @ St Louis in their most recent game and were very competitive vs the top rated team in the conference. Russell was back in the line up and they are back at full strength. This team is better than their record. Prior to their 4 games losing streak this team was on a 6-3 run including a road win VCU and St Bonnies (3rd rated team in the A10). In their first meeting on January 30th, the Rams made just 38% of their shots and 23% of their 3’s with the best player banged up. The Flyers have played 5 road games this year and they are 2-3 in those contests with one win coming in OT and they other coming by 5 points vs a St Louis team that was playing their first game in over a month due to covid. After this one Dayton has three HUGE games on deck vs St Louis, St Bonnies and VCU, the 3 best teams in the conference. Having already beaten URI, we wouldn’t be surprised if they were peaking ahead at that stretch of games. Rhode Island is the better defensive team ranking 33rd nationally in efficiency and they send teams to the FT line fewer than any other team in the A10. Big home game for the Rams and we like them to get the win and cover.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +3.5 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The line on this game suggests Paul George won’t be in the lineup for the Clippers tonight and the Heat, who are nearly back to full strength, will take advantage. Miami has struggled to a 11-15 SU record but they’ve been hit harder by injuries to their starting lineup with Butler, Herro, Dragic and Bradley all missing extended time. Butler and Herro are back and the Heat have won 4 of their last five games. In their last five games the Heat have the best overall defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.029-points per possession. The Clippers have the best overall offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA which can largely be attributed to great 3-point shooting. We feel LA’s hot shooting must regress and is unsustainable for a long period of time. The Clippers are shooting over 42% from deep this season which is significantly better than the league average of 36.8%. Miami is allowing near league average in 3-point percentage shooting by opponents this season, but injuries have had an impact. Last year the Heat were the 5th best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line. The Clippers have won 7 of their last ten games but NONE of those have come against a team with a winning record. Miami is off a loss (34-16-1 ATS run off a loss) in Utah in their previous game while the Clippers have a HUGE two game set against the Jazz next.

#721 ASA PLAY ON 8* North Carolina +6.5 over Virginia, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - North Carolina has played a slightly tougher schedule than Virginia overall and have been in most of their ACC road games this season with a recent win at Duke. Earlier this season the Tarheels lost by just 3-points at NC State, 5-points at Georgia Tech, 7-points at Florida State and then their worst loss of the year was 13-points recently at Clemson. If we examine North Carolina’s game against FSU, who is similar to UVA (top 2 teams in the ACC), we find the Heels were just +4-point dogs in that game and now getting +6.5 here? The Heels lost by 7 in that game vs FSU (2nd place in the ACC) but were -15 made FT’s yet were only down 1 with 2:00 minutes to play. They had a shot in that game. Virginia has been winning but many of their games have been close. The Cavs last three wins in ACC play have all come by 8-points or less. The Cavs have had 2 blowout wins in ACC play vs Clemson & Syracuse but the remainder of their 9 games were decided by an average of 5.7 points. It's hard to imagine any team could look past North Carolina but the Cavaliers have a HUGE game on deck with Florida State which may decide the ACC Title. This has been a tightly contested series with the last four games all decided by 9-points or less. UNC has had a week off to get ready for this game while UVA played a game @ Georgia Tech on Wednesday night. Take the points.

#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State +1 over Montana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two played on Thursday night and Weber State lost 80-67 as a 1-point favorite @ Montana. That loss broke a 4 game winning streak for Weber and they are ready to get back at it on Saturday. The Wildcats come into this game ranked #2 in the Big Sky Conference in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. You wouldn’t have noticed that on Thursday as they allowed Montana to shoot over 50% and 1.18 PPP well above their season averages of 45% and 0.98 PPP. On the other end of the court Weber’s offense (which averages 50% from the field on the season) shot just 44% (only 21% from 3-point range) and averaged just 0.99 PPP. So we have the better team (11-5 overall / 6-3 in conference) that played below their normal expectation with a chance at quick revenge vs a team that exceeded their expectation. We like this situation. Montana has been in this spot a lot recently and failed miserably. In each of their last 3 second night of back to backs vs the same opponent, they won the first night and lost the 2nd night. Those 3 losses came at the hands of Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all 3 ranked well below this Weber State team. The Wildcats have been solid after a subpar performance covering their last 4 games following a loss. Montana, as we mentioned, is the opposite going 0-5 ATS the game following a SU win. We expect Weber State to win this one so we’ll lay it on the road.

#678 ASA PLAY ON 8* East Tennessee State -2 over Wofford, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This is a must win for ETSU who sits one spot below Wofford in 3rd place in the Southern Conference. The Bucs are coming off back to back losses as favorites of -5.5 and -7.5 so we expect them to play very well after losing 2 games they did not expect to. In their most recent game, a loss @ Citadel, the Bucs attempted 73 shots and held the Bulldogs to just 57 shot attempts yet still lost. ETSU’s defense, which ranks 4th in the SOCON in efficiency, played one of their worst games of the season allowing the Citadel to hit 49% of their shots on 1.13 PPP. Offensively ETSU, who ranks #1 in the conference averaging 1.12 PPP, put up only 1.00 PPP vs the Bulldogs who have one of the worst defensive teams in the nation (345th nationally in defensive efficiency). Just a terrible game all around for the Bucs. Wofford started the SOCON season red hot winning 6 of their first 7 games. However, they are just 3-3 over their last 6. These 2 met on February 1st @ Wofford and the home team won a tight game 67-62. ETSU won the rebounding battle and the turnover battle in that game, however Wofford hit 61% of their 2-point shots and 43% of their 3’s at home. It’s going to be much tougher for Wofford to pull that off on the road facing an angry defense that played poorly on Wednesday. The Bucs have won 26 of their last 29 home games and the last time this storied program lost 3 consecutive games was back in 2018. Take ETSU to get back on track at home on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans +3 @ Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - The bet here is New Orleans. If we look at the full season the Pelicans have the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and in their last five games, they improve to 2nd overall. On the season the Mavs have the 15th best OEFF, or an average number by league standards. In their last five games though the Mavs have played better than average with the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers. The difference is the Pelicans improvement offensively in their last five games came against three teams that rank in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. In comparison the Mavs played three games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in DEFF so their improvement shouldn’t come as a shock. Defensively Dallas has been far worse than New Orleans in their last five games as the Mavs are allowing 1.251-points per possession which is the second worst number in the NBA. Both teams are 4-1 SU their last five games but again, the Pels wins came against better overall competition AND they have a +9.6PPG differential compared to the Mavs negative or minus -3.4PPG. As a dog of +4.5 or less the Pelicans are 5-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered 4 straight as a Dog. As a favorite in that same price range the Mavs are just 4-6 ATS. It hasn’t been profitable to play the Mavericks at home in recent times as they sport a 5-16 ATS record at home in their last 21.

#866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago with VCU traveling to St Bonnies as a 2-point underdog. Everything looked great for the Rams at halftime as they jumped out to a 15-point lead scoring 40 points in the first half. Then came the VCU collapse. After scoring 40 points in the first half, they scored only 14 points in the second half and their 15 point lead at the break turned into a 16 point loss. VCU has won 4 straight since that loss and needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. A win here and the Rams jump St Bonnies moving into first place in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been lights out since that loss allowing 43, 62, 62, and 67 points over their last 4 games. The Rams are #2 in the A10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in defensive TO rate, blocked shots, and steals. At home this season they are averaging 78 PPG and allowing just 61 PPG. St Bonnies is a very solid team but they’ve played a very easy road schedule to date. The Bonnies are 3-2 SU on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Fordham (last ranked team in the conference) and Duquesne (9th ranked team in the conference). Their most recent road game was @ St Louis who didn’t play a game for nearly a month (off from Dec 23 through Jan 26) and the Billikens beat St Bonaventure 70-59. Despite their easy road slate they are averaging just 63 PPG away from home while allowing 62 PPG. The favorite has covered 5 straight in this series and last year when these two met @ VCU, the Rams rolled up a huge 91-63 win. While we don’t expect a blowout here, we do like VCU to cover this small number at home.

#840 ASA PLAY ON 8* Quinnipiac -2.5 over Canisius, Friday at 1:00 PM ET - Really tough spot for Canisius here. Because of Covid protocol they haven’t played a game since January 2nd so nearly a full month and a half (44 days to be exact). On top of that they’ve barely practiced together as a team. Just when they thought they were coming back at the end of January vs this same Quinnipiac team, another player tested positive and they had to shut down again. At that time, their head coach Witherspoon mentioned this week that they’ve had maybe 4 or 5 practices since the start of January and this 2nd pause has again disrupted their ability to practice as a full team. Quinnipiac is just 3-5 in the MAAC but they’ve been very competitive. Their 5 losses in conference play have come by 3, 3, 7, 7, and in a loss in OT. The Bobcats just split on the road with Fairfield on Sunday & Monday and while their offense has struggled at times, they might be peaking with 2 of their top 3 performances (1.16 PPP & 1.18 PPP) coming in their last 3 games. If their offense shows up at all, they should win this game. Quinnipiac can struggle on that end of the court but their defense is outstanding. They rank 3rd nationally in eFG% defense, 6th in 2 point FG% defense, and 12th in 3 point FG% defense. They are facing a Canisius team that does not shoot the ball well ranking 302nd nationally in eFG% and 3 point %. Now with no practice and a long layoff facing a fantastic defensive team, this will be a very tough game for Canisius. Staying in basketball shape without playing games for 44 days is nearly impossible. We look for Canisius to be moving a step slow in this game and run out of gas in the 2nd half. Quinnipiac wins and covers at home.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and back the Celtics. This is a fill in game tonight and the Raptors are in a horrible scheduling situation with this being the backend of a second consecutive games. This will also be Toronto’s 5th game in just seven days. The Raptors played their starters extended minutes last night in their fast paced game against the Wizards and fatigue is going to be a factor. Boston has last night off and is coming off a pair of losses against two of the better teams in the West the Suns and Jazz so you can bet the C’s will be focused here. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season when coming off a SU loss. The Celtics have the 10th best home court point differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG and are 4-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Boston has covered 7 of the last nine meetings and our metrics have them winning this game by 10+ points.

#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 5 PM ET - The Gophers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in college basketball. They are 0-6 on the road but a near perfect 12-1 at home. In their home games they have a +13 point differential and they are allowing opponents to hit just 38% of their shot attempts. All but one of their Big 10 home wins have come by double digits. The Gophs are just 2-5 their last 7 games and this is a huge game in regards to their NCAA tourney hopes. It’s pretty much a must win game for Minnesota. These 2 met a few weeks ago in West Lafayette and the Boilers were a 2.5 point favorite. They rolled to any easy 81-62 win scoring 1.29 PPP which drastically outperformed their Big 10 season average of 1.02 PPP. The Boilers were also +11 makes at the FT line and hit 53% of their three pointers. Basically everything went right for Purdue on offense but we don’t expect that to happen again on the road where they shoot just 42% and they have a -2 point differential. The Gophs have already beaten many of the Big 10’s best here at home and beating them handily. They topped Michigan here by 16, OSU by 17 and Iowa by 7. Purdue is just 3-5 SU this year on the road and we expect a huge effort from Minny in a must win game with 2 of their next 3 games coming on the road where they’ve struggled. Low line here in our opinion meaning Minnesota just has to win at home. Minny has covered 7 of their last 8 home games and we’ll lay the bucket with the Gophers.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -6.5 over Rutgers, Wed at 7:30 PM ET - Great value on Iowa here. They are in a bit of a funk losing 4 of their last 5 but they are still a top notch team and we expect them to play very well at home in this one. The Hawkeyes were just favored by 5 at home last week vs Ohio State (a team we have rated in the top 5 nationally) and now they are laying only 6 (as of Tues evening) vs Rutgers (a team we have power rated 30th). Iowa was favored by 4 at Rutgers earlier this year (won 77-75) telling us this number should be higher. They were favored by 10.5 at home vs Indiana in late January and we have the Hoosiers and Rutgers rated nearly dead even. Not only that, we are getting a very good Iowa team that is now backed into a corner so to speak after a string of losses. None of those losses, with the exception of their home loss vs Indiana, were bad losses so to speak. The Hawkeyes lost @ Indiana in OT over the weekend in a game they led by 10 in the second half and still led with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The other 2 losses were at home by 4 vs a very good OSU team (Iowa led 10 in 2nd half) along with a 5 point setback at Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have won 4 straight but all 4 have come vs teams ranked in the lower half of the Big 10. On the road they’ve played only 1 team this season that currently ranks in the top 6 of the conference and that was a 12 point loss @ OSU. They thrive on getting extra possessions by turning teams over but Iowa is the #1 team in the conference at not turning the ball over. Iowa is the most efficient offensive team in the nationally averaging 1.25 PPP and hit almost 40% of their 3’s in conference play. They should get to the line a lot in this game as Rutgers tends to foul quite a bit and while the Knights rarely get to the line (last in the Big 10) when they do it’s not pretty (60% as a team). We like Iowa to get rolling offensively at home and win this one by double digits.

#670 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia Tech +4.5 over Virginia, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Ga Tech @ Duke which turned into a half point loss for us, we think the Jackets are undervalued. They were +6.5 in that game vs the Devils and lost by 7 in a game that was tied with just over 1:00 minute remaining. The Yellow Jackets have been great at home with a perfect ACC record beating the likes of Florida State, UNC, and Clemson. The faced off against this Virginia team in late January on the road and nearly pulled off the upset losing 64-62. In that game GT led by 9 in the 2nd half and UVA’s largest lead of the game was just 4 points. IN that game the Cavs shot 48% from the field at home and still barely hung on to win. UVA is 4-1 on the road in ACC play however they’ve played a very weak conference road slate. Their wins have come vs Notre Dame, Boston College, NC State, and Clemson. The best team they’ve played on the road was Va Tech, a game they lost by 14 on January 30th. While we think UVA is solid, they’ve played the EASIEST schedule thus far in the ACC while Georgia Tech has played the most DIFFICULT schedule in conference play. While the Cavs defense is still very solid, they are not the same shut down unit they’ve been over the last few years. They allow over 41% from the field which ranks them 90th nationally. They’ve allowed over 1.00 PPP in half of their ACC games including their first match up with Ga Tech. We like the Jackets to pull the upset here and we’ll take the points as a nice cushion.

#661 ASA PLAY ON 8* VMI +1 over Western Carolina, Wed at 7 PM ET - WCU is the last place team in the Southern Conference with a 1-9 record. Their only win was at home vs the Citadel (the lowest rated team in the conference) and that was by just 2 points. Not only was WCU’s win by only 2 points, it was a game they trailed for 85% of the time and their largest lead of that game was 2 points which was the final margin. In other words, this team is very close to being 0-10 in conference play. Their losses have come by an average of 10 PPG. They faced VMI on the road just a few weeks ago and lost by 26 points. So many may be thinking revenge here. Not us. VMI has one of the top offenses in the Southern Conference and as with the first game, we don’t think WCU can keep up. VMI scored 87 points in the first meeting and if they get to at least the mid 70’s here, which we think they will, they will win. When VMI scores at least 71 points, they are 10-4 SU. They are averaging 78 PPG in conference play and should get to at least that in this game. They are facing a WCU defense that stinks. They rank 8th in the conference in defensive efficiency and they are facing a VMI offense that ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 2nd in three point percentage while making 77% of their FT’s in conference play. Western ranks at the bottom of the league in a number of key categories including efficiency and eFG%. VMI has scored at least 78 points in 7 of their 10 Southern conference games with 2 of those games (not scoring at least 78) coming against the #1 and #2 teams in the league in defensive efficiency. Now they face the WORST defensive team in the league in which they scored 87 in the first meeting as we mentioned. The Western Carolina offense has not scored more than 69 points in 5 of their last 7 games. We don’t think they can keep up here and with the line at basically a pick-em we like VMI.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dayton +1.5 over VCU, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd and VCU dealt the Flyers their most embarrassing loss of the season winning 66-43. It was their worst defeat in 3 seasons and after the game Dayton head coach Anthony Grant mentioned his disappointment in how his team handled adversity during that contest. Dayton had a school record low 13 points at halftime and the Flyers made only 17 shots the entire game including just 3 three pointers. That wasn’t indicative of this Dayton offense as they rank 2nd in the Atlantic 10 in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG%. It was simply a terrible performance and a bad spot for Dayton as they were facing a VCU team that blew a 15 point halftime lead and lost by 16 to St Bonnies just a few days earlier. They were ready to play off that loss and it showed. Now we’re getting Dayton as a home dog which we think is some solid value in this spot. They are playing well having won 3 of 4 since that loss @ VCU including wins over St Louis (the highest rated team in the A10) & Rhode Island. They are also at home now where they have won 25 of their last 27 games. The Flyers are shooting 50% overall at home this year and nearly 41% from beyond the arc. VCU is coming off a huge road win last week as they beat Rhode Island 63-62. URI’s best player, Fats Russell (14 PPG), didn’t play in the game and it still went to the wire. In fact, Rhode Island led late and a 3 pointer by VCU with 5 seconds remaining gave them 1-point lead. URI then drew a foul with 1 second left but missed the front end of the bonus giving VCU the 1-point win. It looks like the Rams will be at less than full strength in this game with two of their key reserves, Curry & Clark, both injured and possibly out. You can bet Dayton will be more than ready for this rematch and we expect a much better shooting performance giving them the outright home win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The situation is right for a Cavs cover here with the Suns coming off a big win over the Celtics and have a marquee game on deck against the Bucks. The Suns are 6-4 SU at home with a solid point differential of +6.2PPG but even at that number it’s still not enough to cover this spread. Three of the Suns home wins have come by less than 10-points. Cleveland comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, but the losses came against the Bucks twice and the Clippers who are easily two of the best teams in the NBA, and while the Suns are good, they are not on that level yet. The Cavs have the worst road point differential in the NBA but if you eliminate one horrible 38-point loss in Boston that number drops significantly to just -7PPG. Phoenix is in unfamiliar territory here as this big of a favorite as they’ve laid 7 or more points only two other times this season going 1-1 ATS. We expect a letdown by Phoenix here and a much better effort by the Cavs off several poor showings. Bet Cleveland.

#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4.5 over Oklahoma State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This situation sets up very nicely for KU at home. The Jayhawks are coming off a double digit loss on Saturday @ West Virginia. They are a bit undervalued at home here because they have lost 5 of their last 7 games, however all 5 of those losses come on the road. The fact is, Kansas is much better at home where they are 8-1 this season and 42-2 their last 44 at Allen Fieldhouse. These two met in mid January and KU was favored by 3.5 @ Okie State and now laying right around that number in this game because of their recent 2-5 run. The Jayhawks lost the first meeting 75-70 and they were -11 FT attempts in that game and they were throwing up bricks from deep hitting only 23% of their 3 pointers. Even with that Kansas still led by 3 points with just over 1:00 minute remaining in that road loss. The Cowboys are in a rough spot for a tough road game. They played host to Texas on Saturday and won a thriller in double OT. Three of their four starters logged 40+ minutes on Saturday and they were without one of the better players Moncrieffe (foot) who averages 10 PPG & 5 RPG and he is questionable again on Monday. The Longhorns took OSU to double OT on the road despite making only 20 of their 79 shots (25%) and Texas was a ridiculously poor 5 of 35 from deep (14%). OSU scores 56% of their points inside the arc in Big 12 play but Kansas is #1 in the conference at 2-point defense allowing just 45% shooting by opponents. In the first match up the Cowboys only made 47% of their 2-point shots but were able to make up for it at the FT line in a tight game. This should be a tired team and they most likely won’t have as many calls go their way @ Allen Fieldhouse. While Kansas is down a notch from past years, they are still a very solid team and they’ve dominated this series at home going 23-4 SU their last 27 home meetings with OSU. Last year they were favored by 15 here vs the Cowboys and won by 25. Now we're getting the Jayhawks at just -4.5 a year later in a favorable situation. We like Kansas to cover.

ASA free play on: Memphis Grizzlies +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - Memphis was red hot with seven straight wins prior to a 3-game losing streak but we expect them to get back to their winning ways here. Let’s first look at the Grizz seven wins which included impressive home wins over Brooklyn, Philly and Phoenix. Even the three losses were against upper tier or hot teams right now in Indiana, Houston and New Orleans. The line on this game is off according to our metrics as Memphis was recently favored over both Brooklyn and Philadelphia who are two of the best teams in the East. Toronto was recently a 1-point favorite at Atlanta (and lost) and based on our computer ratings, the Raptors shouldn’t be favored here with a 4-8 SU road record and a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Memphis has dealt with several key injuries but have all their main players back here with Ja Morant and Valanciunas in the lineup. Our models have Memphis winning this game by 6-points.

#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Boston Celtics, 2 PM ET - It would be interesting to flip these two teams into the other conference and see where they stand. As it is right now the Suns are a mid-to-lower playoff team in the West while Boston is considered a top 4 team in the East. Our metrics suggest the Suns would be regarded similarly as the Celtics currently are in the East and vice versa. The Suns are 5-2 SU as a home favorite this season with an average margin of victory of +9.4PPG. Three of the Suns losses this season have come against Denver twice and the Clippers who are two of the top four teams in the West along with the Lakers and Jazz. Boston is coming off a road win against the Clippers, but they were in a favorable scheduling situation as the Clippers were off a long East coast trip. Boston’s other road wins this season have come against teams that have a combined 56-79 SU record. The C’s rank 11th in offensive efficiency on the road but drop all the way to 18th in DEFF. Phoenix is 15th in OEFF at home but rank 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.055-points per possession on their home court. Boston is without a pair of starters here in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart and don’t have enough depth to overcome those losses. Our computers have the Suns winning by 7 here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The line move on this game is an indicator Trae Young will be in the lineup for the Hawks tonight and we like Atlanta as a home dog here. Let’s start there. Atlanta is coming off their worst shooting night of the season as they hit just 33% from the field versus the Jazz in a blowout loss. Our models like them to bounce back here against an average Toronto team coming off a big upset of the Nets last night. The Hawks schedule of late has been brutal with five games against five of the best teams in the NBA (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Nets and Bucks). Now they take a step down against a Raptors team that has the same record as they do at 10-12 SU. Toronto has a positive road differential of +.5PPG but they are just 4-7 SU away from home and they are 0-2 SU this season when playing without rest. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a home dog this season BUT those losses came against some of the league’s elite teams and Toronto is not on that level. Toronto is 2-3 ATS as a road chalk this year. Finally, consider this, the Lakers just played here and were -7-points and now the Raptors are laying a number near that? Bet the Atlanta Hawks in this one.

#707 ASA PLAY ON 8* Jacksonville State -3 over SE Missouri State, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Despite their 7-5 OVC record we feel Jax State is one of the top teams in the conference. They’ve already beaten Austin Peay and Murray State on the road, two of the top five teams in the league. They are healthy now after missing a key player for 3 of their 5 conference losses. UNC transfer Huffman missed their loss vs Morehead St (2nd meeting) and Georgia transfer Ngumezi missed their losses vs Morehead St (1st meeting) and Eastern Kentucky. Their only 2 other OVC losses came vs Belmont (the best team on the league) by 7 and vs Eastern KY in OT. They’ve controlled the bottom half of the conference, winning all of their games thus far vs the bottom half of the conference. That’s where SE Missouri sits. They are currently ranked right around 300 in most power ratings and all of their OVC wins have come against teams ranked 300 or lower. Not only that, 4 of their 5 conference wins (vs teams all ranked 300 or lower) have come by 4 points or less. Jax State is the 2nd most efficient team in the OVC and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 4 of their last 6 games. SEMO is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation (301st in efficiency) and they’ve only reached 70 points once in their 12 conference games. SEMO is 5-7 in conference play despite playing the easiest schedule in league play. Jacksonville State has handled all of the lower ranked teams in the conference and we’re getting a gift with the Gamecocks laying only 3 points here.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points.

#636 ASA PLAY ON 8* Clemson -2.5 over Syracuse, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Clemson has one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the nation.  They are 7-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Virginia, the top rated team in the ACC.  The Tigers were smoked in their 3 most recent road games losing @ Duke, @ Ga Tech, and @ Florida St.  However their last 2 home games they beat Louisville and UNC.  They also beat Florida State at home this year so they have W’s vs 3 of the top teams in the ACC in their own arena.  Speaking of home/road dichotomy, the Cuse also has a fairly drastic difference in regards to that.  The Orange have lost 4 of their 5 road games this season with their only win coming @ BC, who is 3-10 overall and 1-6 in ACC play.  Their other 4 road losses have come by an average of 15 PPG.  We have a huge difference defensively in this game as Syracuse allows 80 PPG on the road while Clemson gives up just 57 PPG in their 8 games.  The Tigers are 7-2-1 their last 10 home games while Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS their last 6 on the road.  These 2 have met 5 times in Clemson since 2007 and the Tigers have won 4 of those games.  We’ll take the host on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets win with offense and when the Big 3 of Kyrie, Harden and Durant are on the floor they’re nearly impossible to defend. In their last five games the Nets have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.252 points per possession and are averaging 129.4PPG. The concern for Brooklyn is their defense but they have the ability to turn it up against good teams. The Nets are allowing 1.136PPP on the season which ranks then 26th in the NBA but in their last eight games against winning teams that efficiency rating improves dramatically. In their last five games the Nets have a +8PPG point differential which is 5th best in the league. Toronto has struggled out of the gate this NBA season with a 9-12 SU, 8-13 ATS record. The Raptors are off two wins versus an Orlando team that is 8-14 SU and dealing with injuries so we’re not impressed. Making a line comparison we see the Raptors were just +4.5 points at Indiana who isn’t on the same level as this Brooklyn team. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU their last six games and on a 5-0 spread run at home with the wins coming by an average of +6PPG. Toronto has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.116PPG which ranks 18th in the NBA and they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with the Nets here.

#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - It’s not a good spot for the Mavs who are off a game last night in Atlanta, playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Dallas will sit Porzingis here as he’s not ready for that type of workload and they don’t want to jeopardize a set back to his injuries. Porzingis is off a 24-point 11 rebound night in Atlanta last night. Golden State on the other hand is off a close loss a few nights ago but are rested here. The big difference between these two teams is 3-point shooting. The Mavs are the 30th ranked 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 32.7% and you don’t win in today’s NBA if you can’t shoot beyond the arc. The Warriors on the other hand shoot over 36% from deep which is 17th in the league. Granted the Warriors are without two of their “bigs” here in Looney and Wiseman, but the Mavs prefer the small ball lineup with Green at the five and the Mavs don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 11PPG. Dallas is 0-5 ATS their last five at home, 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Warriors have won seven of eight when playing against sub .500 teams this season and a road win here looks promising.

#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over LA Clippers, 7:35 PM ET - This is clearly a marquee game between two of Star ridden teams and we like the Nets at home in a win. The Clippers have won 10 of their last eleven games and are starting to look like the team that was supposed to win a Championship last season. But a closer look at this current streak doesn’t have us as excited as Clipper fans are. In their last ten wins the Clippers best win is over the Indiana Packers who are 11-9 SU on the season and not ONE of the other wins came against a team that is above .500 right now. The Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency and have risen up the ranks in defensive efficiency (11th) lately because of the weak schedule. We like the fact Brooklyn comes into this game off an upset loss against a very motivated Wizards team and will look to get back on track here. The Nets have won 7 of their last ten games with one of those coming at home against the Bucks. James Harden sat out the other night but is expected back here giving the Nets their vaunted “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court which makes them extremely difficult to defend. The Clippers have some injury questions of their own with two starters (Batum, Beverley) potentially out again tonight. The bigger Stars rise to the occasion tonight and get a home win.

ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +6 over the LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - Don’t bet this game on the names of the front of the jerseys or the history of the franchises, bet this game on value in the number. Surprisingly, the Hawks rank 8th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.126 points per possession which coincidentally is the exact same OEFF as the Lakers. The Hawks defensive efficiency rating is 10th best in the NBA at 1.096PPP. L.A. leads the league at 1.048PPP allowed per game. The Lakers average point differential is +7.7PPG but the Hawks aren’t far behind at +3PPG. So, looking at the overall numbers there really isn’t as big separator between these two teams as you might think. LA has been on the road for six straight games with a 2-4 SU record but the four wins haven’t been blowouts by any means at +1, +7, +11 and +7PPG. The Hawks have played well with a 6-4 SU record their last ten games and the losses came at Utah, at Portland, at Milwaukee and home in overtime versus the Nets. This line looks like a trap with the Lakers so let’s bet the team Vegas doesn’t want us to, the Hawks!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Warriors here who are at home off a loss while Detroit is off a huge upset win of the Lakers. The Pistons are 1-7 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -6.5PPG. The Pistons have THE WORST defensive efficiency on the road this year 1.183PPP OR 119PPG. Detroit has lost three straight road games by 15, 8 and 6-points. Golden State has had their ups and downs, but they are still 7-4 SU at home with a plus +5.1PPG differential. The Warriors were just -8.5 and -9 points at home over the Timberwolves who are similar to this same Pistons team and Golden State won both by 22 and 12 points respectively. We like Golden State to bounce here off the loss to the Suns.

ASA play on 8* Houston Rockets +1 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for the Pelicans who are coming off a huge upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night and now face a rested Rockets team. New Orleans played their starters extended minutes last night with all five logging 34 plus minutes, so fatigue becomes a factor here. Not to mention, the Pels are playing their 3rd game in four nights and teams in that situation win just 44% of the time this season. The Rockets have won four straight games and are starting to gel with the addition of Victor Oladipo, who scored 25-points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 5 assists in their win over Portland Thursday night. Houston is slightly lower in offensive efficiency ratings compared to New Orleans, but the Rockets have the 4th best defensive efficiency in the NBA versus the Pelicans 24th ranked unit. Houston has a plus differential on the season while the Pelicans have a negative overall differential of minus -1.5PPG.

#685 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois Chicago +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Saturday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played last night with NKU coming out on top 72-68. The host made 20 FT’s to UIC’s 9 which turned out to be the difference in the game. The Flames absolutely dominated the boards 40 to 27 including 14 offensive rebounds but they shot just 38% for the game. The Hilltoppers are a poor rebounding team (328th in defensive rebounding) and one of the smallest teams in the country. We full expect Illinois Chicago to dominated the boards again on Saturday. Northern KY is one of the worst 3 points shooting teams in the nation and they were off from deep on Friday making 4 of 14 vs a UIC defense that allows just 26% from beyond the arc (6th best nationally). On Saturday we expect the Hilltoppers to struggle again from deep as they have for much of the season and if they don’t have a huge edge at the FT line, the Flames will have a great shot to win this game outright. After last night’s win, NKU is now 6-5 in Horizon League play and all of their wins prior to last night game against teams rated in the bottom 4 of the conference. We feel the Flames are a bit undervalued as they are now at full strength after playing 4 of their 9 Horizon League games without their top big man Bridges (10 PPG & 5 RPG). He’s back to full strength and we like UIC to win this game in quick revenge mode after losing a tight one last night. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road.

#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -4 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:35 PM ET - The Rockets looked impressive in their 19-point win over Washington the other night when they had their version of the Big 3 on the court with Wall, Oladipo and Cousins. Unfortunately, Portland doesn’t have their full complement of players healthy right now with McCollum and Nurkic out for an extended time while Hood and Covington are less than 100%. The Blazers have four road wins this season but two of those were against the Kings who are 6-10 on the season. Portland was bad on the road a year ago with a 14-24 SU record and an average loss margin of minus -4.2PPG. We can’t pull statistics from the Rockets previous games this season (with Harden) but we can project what this collective group of players can accomplish based on individual efficiency statistics. Houston beat the Blazers earlier this season by 2-points in OT in Portland with McCollum and Nurkic combining for 56 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. It looks like a great time to buy low with Houston so we’ll back the Rockets here.

#701 ASA PLAY ON 8* Wisconsin -3 over Maryland, Wed at 9 PM ET - We’re getting a very good Wisconsin team in revenge mode AND off a loss. We really like this spot. The Badgers lost at home to Maryland 70-64 back on December 28th. In that game the Terps hit 50% of their shots for 1.11 PPP and made 80% of their FT’s. That was vs a Wisconsin defense that has allowed less than 1.00 PPP in conference play and it was the Badgers worst defensive efforts of the season on a PPP basis. On the season in Big 10 play Maryland is averaging just 0.98 PPP and making only 63% of their FT’s so the numbers in the first meeting were not indicative of this team. They played over their heads. We also get Wisconsin coming off a home loss vs Ohio State on Saturday and Maryland coming off a road upset at Minnesota over the weekend. The Terps have pulled a number of upsets on the road topping Illinois, Minnesota, and Rutgers, however they have not yet won at home in Big 10 play. They have lost all 3 of their Big 10 home games by double digits. The Badgers on the other hand, have lost only 1 conference road game and that was @ Michigan. The Badgers are a very solid 3-point shooting team (34th nationally) and facing a Maryland defense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 at defending the 3. If UW holds a lead late as we expect, they also make 76% of their freebies in league play. The Badgers were favored by 10 at home in the first meeting and now only 3 on the road despite zero home court advantage? Bad line and we’ll take Wisconsin.

#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight.

#668 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence -1.5 over Marquette, Wed at 7 PM ET - The Friars are just happy to finally be playing a game at home. After a 4 game road trip they are back on their home court for the first time since January 2nd. One of their opponents on that tough 4 game road trip was this Marquette team. The Golden Eagles topped Providence 79-69 in that game but it was an obvious letdown spot for the Friars while Marquette was in a very solid situation at home. Just 2 days prior to their game @ Marquette, the Friars blew a 7-point lead with 1:30 remaining in the game @ Xavier with the Musketeers hitting a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win 74-73. The quick turnaround was rough for this Providence team while Marquette had a full week off entering their game with the Friars. Providence hung around and trailed by just 2 points with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before a rested Golden Eagle team pulled away. Marquette has won their last 2 road games, however they came against St Johns (by 2) and Georgetown (by 4) who are the 9th and 11th rated teams in the Big East (who has 11 teams). The Eagles are coming off a home loss to DePaul who is the 10th rated team. Providence has played the much tougher Big East schedule (#1 SOS in conference play) yet these 2 have identical 4-5 conference records. The Friars, despite their first loss to Marquette in a bad situation, actually matched up well with the Eagles. That’s because Marquette relies fairly heavily on their 3-point shooting and Providence has the #1 three point defense in Big East play allowing opponents to shoot just 30%. On the other side, Marquette has the worst defensive efficiency numbers in the league (11th in Big East play) and they also rank last at defending the arc while the Friars are the 2nd best three point shooting team in conference games. Providence gets their revenge here with a home win.