Sports Picks & Predictions

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night.

ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover.

#843 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4 over Iowa, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a revenger for Rutgers after losing at home to Iowa back on January 8th. Rutgers, the 2nd best defensive team in the nation allowing 0.86 PPP, allowed the Hawks to put up 1.12 PPP in that loss. It was not only the worst defensive performance for Rutgers on a PPP allowed basis, it was also the most points they’ve allowed the entire season (76). Iowa was a 5.5 point dog in that game and now we’re getting the better overall team, Rutgers (16th nationally KenPom compared to Iowa at 36th), as a dog here. The Knights are the best defensive team in Big 10 play on a points per possession basis (0.94) and Iowa is the worst defense in conference play allowing 1.09 PPP. The Hawkeyes are also the worst eFG% defense in the Big 10. Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10 games while Iowa is 5-5 during that stretch. The Knights have already proven they can get it done on the road beating Purdue in West Lafayette which is the Boilers only loss this season (20-1 record). The underdog is 9-2-1 last 12 meetings and we expect this one to go to the wire. We’ll take the MUCH better defensive team, getting points, in revenge mode.

#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +3 over Kentucky, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We’re buying Kansas low here as they have lost 3 straight games. To put that in perspective, since the start of the 2001 season, the Jayhawks have had a grand total of three 3 game losing streaks and have not lost 4 in a row during that span. They are getting points in this game from a Kentucky team that has already lost at home to South Carolina, the lowest rated team in the SEC. The Wildcats already have 6 losses (14-6 record) facing the 84th most difficult schedule in the country. KU, on the other hand, is 16-4 on the season facing the #1 most difficult schedule and they were 16-1 prior to this 3 game speed bump. All 3 of those recent losses have come vs top 25 teams per KenPom. The Cats have already lost to 3 teams this year ranked outside the top 40 per Ken Pom (Missouri, South Carolina, and Michigan State) and they are back to being overvalued based on their 4 game winning streak. Three of those wins have come vs Texas A&M, UGA, and Vandy, ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in the SEC. Their one impressive win in SEC play came over Tennessee and that was a bounce back game after losing at home to South Carolina. These 2 are comparable offensively when it comes to key metrics, but Kansas has a solid edge defensively ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats rank 57th. The Jayhawks have also faced the much tougher slate of offenses as every team in the Big 12 with the exception of 1 is ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with half of the teams (5) ranking in the top 30 in that category. Finally this is a revenger for Kansas as well as they were embarrassed at home vs Kentucky last season as 5-point favorites. That Wildcat team, however was far superior to this one, as they ended the season ranked 6th in KenPom while this year’s version is 30th. Take the points as we expect Kansas to win this game outright.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home.

ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one.

#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number.

#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada.

ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State.

#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON Bradley -6.5 over Belmont, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Bradley currently sits at 6-3 in the Missouri Valley which is good for 3rd place but they are the best team in the conference by nearly every key metric. They rank #1 in MVC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Braves are truly one of the top defensive teams in the country this year allowing just 60 PPG (16th nationally) with opponents making only 39% of their shots (24th). This is a huge home game for the Braves who sit one game behind conference newcomer Belmont. The Bruins are tied for 1st place with Southern Illinois at 7-2. They’ve also played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are 2-2 on the road in league play. Their 2 conference road wins came @ Valpo and @ Illinois Chicago, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the MVC. Their other 2 road games ended in an 18 point loss @ Southern Illinois and a 10 point loss @ Illinois State. This is a revenger for Bradley who lost @ Belmont in late December blowing a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the game in the 3 point loss. The Braves have been fantastic at home with a 10-0 mark winning by an average score of 82-54! Their closest margin of victory at home this year had been 13 points. They have not lost ATS at home this season with their average cover coming by +15 PPG. The Braves have 7 losses on the season, all on the road, and 5 of them have come vs top 100 teams. By comparison, Belmont has played only 1 top 100 team this entire season, and that was Bradley, a game we discussed earlier. We’ll lay it with Bradley at home in revenge mode facing a Belmont team that has played a light schedule to date.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -8.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET - PSU has dropped 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 3-4 in Big 10 play. This team is solid and now in must win mode at home vs one of the conference’s worst teams. Nebraska is improved over previous seasons, but they are still ranked as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 ahead of only Minnesota. The Huskers are coming off a big home upset vs Ohio State and now are on the road where they are 1-3 in league play with their only win coming @ Minnesota (by far the worst team in the Big 10) by 2 points in OT. Nebraska’s other 3 conference road losses have come by margins of 16, 18, and 18 points. PSU is 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions 2 home conference wins have come vs Indiana & Iowa, and their 9 home wins have come by an average of 16 PPG. PSU is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 6th in 3 point FG%. At home they make nearly 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The Lions also turn the ball over just 13% of the time which is #1 nationally limiting opponents extra possessions. With Nebraska averaging only 60 PPG on the road this year, we’re not sure they can keep up with Penn State in a must win spot at home. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money!

#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday.

ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here.

#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them.

#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover.

#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here.

#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points.

#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one.

ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright.

#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it.

#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points.

#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas.

#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here.

#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team.

#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday.

#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening.

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET

The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -5.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 :10pm ET

The Clippers have adapted to playing without Kawhi Leonard, so we’re not concerned about him being out tonight. The Pistons are dealing with the loss of Cade Cunningham and haven’t fared as well with a 5-game losing streak and a 2-8 SU record in their last ten games. Detroit is averaging just 108.6PPG and allowing 123PPG in their last five games. The Pistons offense is one of the worst in the NBA in points, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. Tonight, it’s going to be especially tough to put points up against a Clippers defense that is top 4 in points, FG%, 3PT% and most importantly rank 2nd in defensive efficiency. LA is 5-2 SU their last seven games and are coming off a close loss in Philadelphia last Friday. The Clippers have won 7 straight in this series and are in line for an 8th win and cover tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here.

ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain.

#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win.

#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win.

ASA play on 8* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8 PM ET - We can’t pass up an opportunity to play on an elite team like the Bucks off an EMBARRASSING loss in their last game out. Milwaukee got beat by 41-points in Memphis the other night in what was one of the worst defensive NBA games I’ve seen in a long time. These guys are professionals with damaged pride so we know we’ll get max effort out of the Bucks here. The Bucks are 13-3 SU at home with the 6th best differential of +9PPG. Milwaukee is 29-13 SU, 15-11-2 ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season. The Jazz may come into this game a little ‘fat’ with a pair of big Western Conference wins over the Pelicans at home. Utah is 6-9 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. They are coming off a stretch of games with 8 of their last nine being at home. Milwaukee’s defense will be the difference in this game as they rank 4th in PPG allowed, 2nd in FG% D and 9th in 3PT% defense. Back the Bucks here!

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs.

#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight.

ASA play on 8* Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Blazers and fade the Wolves. Minnesota is coming off a big game in Utah last night (the return of Rudy Gobert) and will have a tough time getting back up for this game. Portland is off a tough 1-point loss to the Nuggets on Dec 8th. The Blazers got Damian Lillard back in that game and he promptly went off for 40-points. He’s in line for another big game here against a Wolves team that doesn’t defend guards well. The Wolves have a tighter rotation now that Karl Anthony Towns is out which makes this scheduling situation that much tougher. Going back to the start of last season, the T-Wolves are 6-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of -2.9PPG when playing without rest. The big advantage the Blazers have here is 3-point shooting. Portland has the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Wolves are the 29th worst 3PT% defense. Portland has dominated this series as the home team with a 22-7-2 ATS record the last 31 times the Wolves have come to town.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points.

ASA play on 8* Cleveland Cavaliers -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We like this young Kings team and don’t feel their 13-9 start is a fluke, but we have to bet against them here. The Kings average 119.3PPG compared to the Cavs 111.5PPG but their offensive efficiency rating is very close at 1.165PPP for the Kings and 1.141PPP for Cleveland. Defensively there is no comparison as the Cavaliers have the #1 rated defensive efficiency numbers in the league allowing just 1.079PPP versus the Kings who rank 21st giving up 1.132PPP. Cleveland has also been near unbeatable at home this season with a 11-1 SU record and the best average point differential of +12.4PPG. The Kings are a respectable 5-6 SU away from home but recently versus teams of the Cavs caliber (Bucks, Celtics even Hawks) they have lost by 9+ points in each of those road games. Cleveland has the 4th best field goal percentage in the NBA and the Kings rank 26th defensively in that department. Sacramento is also 27th in defending the 3-point line and the Cavs shoot 34.5% which ranks 10th.

#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night.

#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here.

#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread.

#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points.

ASA play on 8* NY Knicks +6 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This line is inflated as the Knicks are coming off a game last night while the Bucks are rested. But the Knicks won big last night in Detroit and were able to spread their minutes throughout the bench. The value in this number is obvious as the Bucks were favored by -6-points at home earlier this season, which means this should be a small dog or even a pick’em. New York was just a +2-point home dog to Memphis the other night. The Bucks have been dominating at home with a 11-2 SU record but on the road they sport a 3-3 record. They are just 1-3 SU their last four away from home which includes a loss to the lowly Spurs. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS when playing without rest since the start of last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +2.8PPG and covered the number by +5.7PPG. Grab the value with New York tonight.

#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Blazers have a better “depleted” lineup than the Clipper injury riddled lineup. Portland it without Damian Lillard but the Clippers don’t have Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. Also, out for the Clippers is Luke Kennard and John Wall. Portland is off a tough 4-game road trip which ended with a very poor showing against the Nets. The Clippers are off a win over the Pacers, but it took a monster effort from their Center Zubac who scored 31-points and grabbed 29-rebounds. That was understandable considering the Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to points allowed to Centers. L.A. has just 1 win on the road versus a team with a winning record and that was the 2nd game of the season against the Kings. Portland is 4-4 SU at home this season, but all 4 losses have come against teams that made the Playoffs a year ago. Portland off a double-digit loss is on a 4-0 ATS streak and we are betting they get a big win tonight.

#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one.

#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle.

#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG.

#667 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty +4.5 over Northwestern, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Flames are coming off an upset loss at home vs Southern Miss on Friday and we like them to bounce back in this neutral site game (Rivera Maya, Mexico) vs Northwestern. It was a game where Liberty came out flat and got way behind before coming back and having a chance late but losing by 4. It was a disappointing performance for a veteran team that may have been peeking ahead to their trip to Mexico. Liberty returns 7 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun and finished with a record of 22-11. That includes 2-time conference player of the year guard Darrius McGhee (25 PPG) who spurned Power 5 transfer offers to finish out his career with Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McCay has built a very good program @ Liberty after coming over from New Mexico back in 2008. He has led the Flames to 6 consecutive 20 win seasons. In their Hawaii tourney last year, Liberty with basically this same team, beat a very good Northern Iowa team who won the Missouri Valley, lost by 3 vs Stanford (blew a 13 point lead), and lost by 5 vs BYU who finished with a 24-11 record. This team is experience and battle tested. Northwestern steps into this game with a 4-0 record but we think they are overvalued at this point. We have them tabbed for 12th in the Big 10 this year after finishing 7-13 in league play last year. In their most recent game they held off IPFW at home winning by 8 after leading by just 1 points with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Liberty is a solid shooting team that finished in the top 35 nationally from both inside and outside the arc last year while also making 77% of their FT’s. They’ve gotten off to a little slower start this year but still shooting well ranking 80th in eFG%. We think they’ll give NW big problems in this game and we actually have this game rated dead even. Value on Liberty Tuesday evening.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 6 PM ET - The Utes are coming off a home loss in a game they were favored so we look for a strong bounce back effort here in Fort Myers. That loss vs Sam Houston State isn’t looking as bad as many may think as SHSU is not a perfect 4-0 on the season and they also have a win @ Oklahoma. Utah returns all 5 starters from last season and they added a few transfers including F Ben Carlson from Wisconsin who will help up front. Georgia Tech is coming off a 12-20 season and while they are 3-0 this year, they haven’t played a team ranked higher than 224th. In that game vs 224th ranked Georgia State, who lost all 5 starters and is projected near the bottom of the Sun Belt, the Yellow Jackets squeaked out a 2 point win. Tech loses their top 2 players from last season, DeVoe and Usher who combined to average over 33 PPG, and they are left with very little experience. In their 3 games thus far the Jackets have shot the ball poorly with an eFG% 42.7% (324th nationally) and those numbers come vs lower level competition. Now they face a Utah defense, that has plenty of size inside and had held their opponents this season to an eFG% of 38.2% which is good for 8th best in the country. The Utes also have a nice size advantage and should control the glass vs a Tech team that has allowed their first 3 opponents to gather nearly 36% of their offensive boards which ranks the Jackets 314th in defensive rebounding. And those numbers came vs teams that are nowhere near the size of Utah. Most projections have Georgia Tech finishing dead last in the ACC after finishing 2nd to last a year ago. We like Utah here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans.

ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here.

#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight.

#306630 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Dakota -5.5 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota took a loss on Tuesday at Wisconsin 85-59. We think that blowout setback is giving us some value here as our ratings have the Coyotes favored by 7 in this game. SD returns the top backcourt in the Summit League with Perrott-Hunt (15 PPG) and Archambault (14.5 PPG) from a team that went 19-12 last year. They also bring back guard Plitzuweit who sat out last season due to an injury after averaging 19 PPG as a freshman in 2020 and North Dakota transfer Bruns who put up 15 PPG last year and was the Summit’s freshman of the year. This backcourt is loaded. Because of their strong guard play, the Coyotes ranked 22nd nationally last year hitting over 37% of their triples. On Tuesday vs Wisconsin, they were just 2 of 15 from deep for just 13% vs the defensively stout Badgers. They hung fairly well on the boards despite being outsized (-5 rebounds) and only turned the ball over 10 times which is a testament to their solid guard play. Now back at home, South Dakota takes a big step down from a team that won the Big 10 last year (Wisconsin) to Lipscomb who finished 6-10 last season in the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bisons had some key injury problems last season and will be improved but we feel this is a tough spot for their first game of the season. While SD will own a solid edge in the backcourt, Lipscomb will have an advantage inside with Asadullah patrolling the middle. However, Wisconsin also had a big edge inside and South Dakota did a very solid job of limiting their inside scoring by double teaming the post. The problem was, when they did that, the Badgers hit lights out from beyond the arc making 12 of 26 (46%). We don’t anticipate Lipscomb being that successful shooting from deep on the road in their first game of the season. Lay the rather small number with South Dakota at home.

ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks.

#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close.