Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET

We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET

After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid.  Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington.  VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter.  There is a good chance both sit again tonight.  Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season.  They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples.  In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference).  Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league).  The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate.  The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally.  We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team.  Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch.  Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win.  This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here.  VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to.  In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games.  Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog.  With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN

Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out.  However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend.  Winning both would probably get them in.  Just a huge home stand for Memphis.  Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here.  The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on.  Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so.  In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry.  That simply almost never happens.  Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not.  Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight.  Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble.  The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday.  As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %.  They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier.  To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time.  Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc.  Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road.  The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET

We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games.  In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone.  Win your conference tourney and you’re in.  That’s not the case this week.  In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State).  KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58.  It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired.  Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game.  We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort.  With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play.  They have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play.  They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game.  Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward.  The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12).  This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation.  They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game.  Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12).  OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET

The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright.

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets +4 over San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET

The Spurs are off a game last night and although they have a winning record when playing without rest this season their margin of victory in those games is just .1PPG. Charlotte is 5-3 SU their last eight games with a quality win in Toronto. San Antonio is 1-3 SU their last four games and playing without rest here and their 3rd game in four nights so fatigue becomes a factor. The Spurs are 10-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA, yet they are favored here in this scenario? When these teams met earlier this season the Hornets were up 63-50 at the half but were then outscored 64-27 in the second half to lose by 24-points. Charlotte will remember that game and play with extreme effort in this one. The fading Spurs are just 1-4 ATS their last five games and without Aldridge in the lineup tonight we predict an outright win by Charlotte.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night.  The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here.  Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington.  Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home.  We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did.  This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game.  They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding.  They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play.  One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed.  They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed.  Tonight they have nothing to play for.  The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts.  This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons.  Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here.  Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons.  They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013.  Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion.  Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense.  They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%.  The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games.  Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale.  This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers.  We like Georgia State here.

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET

The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech.  The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half.  The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles.  The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech.  Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense.  The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66.  A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today.  The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia.  It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year.  Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53.  VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3.  That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss.  They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits.  Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs.  We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation.  They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago.  The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9.  They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots.  It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG.  That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games.  The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke.  In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA.  Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG.  Lay it with Louisville. 

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET

We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride.  Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season.  That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining.  They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC.  Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %.  They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast.  The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion.  They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road.   Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play.  Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6.  The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far.  The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games.  Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well.  If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Evansville -2 over Illinois State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

This one is all about motivation.  These are the two worst teams in the MVC and they are locked into their spots with Evansville set to finish last and ISU set to finish one spot above the Aces no matter what happens here.  Evansville is currently 0-17 in conference play (9-21 overall) yet they are favored here?  That should tell you something.  Illinois State is 4-13 in conference play (9-20 overall) and they are coming off their rivalry game vs Bradley on Wednesday.  The Redbirds gave everything they had at home vs their arch rival but lost in OT.  That was their Super Bowl so to speak.  Now going on the road in a meaningless game we find it tough to see ISU playing well here.  Speaking of playing well, the Redbirds have not done so on the road this year where they have a record of 0-11 SU on the season.  Not only have they not won a road game, they haven’t been close with 11 of their 12 losses coming by at least 10 points.  Evansville has plenty of motivation not to become the first team since 1998 to go winless in the MVC.  The Aces have also been talking this week about winning a game for their only senior and leader KJ Riley.  They’ve also shown some promise at home down the stretch losing their last 3 home games by 7 points to Loyola (2nd place team in MVC), 2 points to Indiana State (4th place team in MVC) and by 4 points in OT to Southern Illinois (5th place team in MVC).  While they obviously haven’t gotten in done in conference play, the Aces do have some decent non-conference wins @ Kentucky (yes they beat the Cats on the road) and vs Murray State (first place team in OVC).  We think Evansville shows up and plays as hard as they have all season.  We also think Illinois State comes in flat with nothing to play for.  Both of these teams have 9 total wins this season, we like Evansville to move to 10 wins.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana State -5 over Valparaiso, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is off a big senior night win over Missouri State but we feel this is a very tough spot for the Crusaders.  First they are just 2-6 SU on the road in Missouri Valley play with their only 2 wins coming by 3 @ Evansville (last place team) and by 2 @ Illinois State (2nd to last place team).  Secondly they are banged up as the regular season comes to an end.  Their best player and leading scorer and rebounder, Javon Freeman-Liberty (20 PPG & 6 RPG) will almost assuredly be out here as he was just diagnosed with mono and missed Valpo’s home finale on Tuesday.  Also starter Nick Robinson missed the last 2 games and will most likely be out here.  On top of that, starting guard John Kiser is battling an ankle injury missing games on Feb 15th & 19th and is not back to 100%.  Valpo was able to gut it out and get back to back home wins but it’s going to be awfully tough for them in this road game.  ISU is on a nice roll winning 7 of their last 10 games and now sit in 4th place in the MVC with a 10-7 record, tied with Southern Illinois and one game ahead of Valpo.  This is also a double revenge spot for the Sycamores who lost earlier this year @ Valpo and in last year’s MVC tourney ending ISU’s season.  In their game @ Valparaiso back on January 18th, the Crusaders won by 9 but it was much closer than that.  ISU actually led at half and trailed by just 3 with 20 seconds remaining.  Valpo shot 51% and they were +10 made FT’s in the game yet it went to the wire.  On top of that, Valpo’s Freeman-Liberty, who we mentioned earlier and is out here, scored 25 points and had 8 rebounds in that game.  Indiana State is 11-1 at home this year and on Senior Night (3 seniors in their top 6) we like them to play very well and cover this fairly short number.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale.  With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special.  On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday.  Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference.  Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here.  If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points.  They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%.  They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams.  That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%.  Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good.  While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games).  The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier.  When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites.  The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley.  It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe.  We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win.

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +11 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET

Located in Wisconsin we certainly know how good the Milwaukee Bucks are at 50-8 but this double-digit dog is too attractive to pass up. Oklahoma City is playing as well as anyone in the NBA, yet nobody is talking about them. The Thunder have won 14 of their last seventeen games and in that stretch, they have some impressive wins over: @Houston, @New Orleans, vs. Denver and vs. San Antonio. Consider this, the Thunder have been double-digit dogs just two times this season, at the Lakers and at the Rockets and they covered both easily. Even though the Thunder played last night they are a perfect 8-0 ATS this season in that scheduling situation. OKC has the 7th best road differential in the NBA at +1.6PPG and are 17-10 SU away from home. As far as the Bucks are concerned, we know just how good this team is, but the line is inflated here. Milwaukee was recently favored by 9 and 10-points against the 76ers at home and the Kings and the Thunder are playing much better than both right now. Again, the Bucks are now a public team and slightly over-priced in this one. Milwaukee has a losing spread record of 13-16 ATS as a double-digit chalk. Grab the points with the Thunder.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET

The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET

In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game.  From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss.  We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game.  State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11.  Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play.  Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney.  The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%.  He missed the last 2 games due to injury.  Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team.  Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession.  This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less.  This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places.  We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET

As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them.  You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that.  However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost.  Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State.  The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place.  If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit.  NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year.  In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77.  In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73.  Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury.  He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game.  His status is up in the air for Thursday.  South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.  Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot.  If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play.  Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.    

ASA’s play on: Portland Trailblazers +9.5 over Indiana Pacers, 8PM ET

We are playing on the Portland Trailblazers and the points here. The Blazers are playing for their playoff lives right now and must do it without Damian Lillard. Indiana is entrenched in the East and still adjusting to a rotating lineup with recently returned Victor Oladipo. Indiana is 3-7 SU their last ten games but do own one quality win over the Bucks at home. Portland is 4-6 SU their last ten games but have also faced a tough schedule of late. The Blazers have been admittedly bad on the road this season with a 10-20 SU record but their average loss margin of -5.6PPG is good enough to cover here. Indiana is 20-10 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +4.7PPG which again is not enough to cover this spread tonight. These two teams essentially offset each other in terms of home/road efficiency ratings so we don’t see the Pacers having any clear advantage which would lead to a double-digit win. Portland has covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court and 12 of the last 14 overall. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET

The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game.  That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month.  Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG).  The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him.  Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts.  During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have.  Impressive run to say the least.  During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep.  Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable.  The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points.  The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late.  UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points.  We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much.  Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition.  40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league.  The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned.  Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games.  Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency).  That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here.  We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET

Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up.  They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8.  Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before.  The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points.  As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch.  They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season.  The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land.  That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home.  This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT.  Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win.  The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games.  With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. 

ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points!

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Mississippi State -4 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We faded Bama on Saturday @ Ole Miss and the Tide played possibly their best game of the season.  They routed Mississippi by 25 points, shot 55% for the game (9% above their average), 43% from beyond the arc (7% above their average) and scored a ridiculous 103 points (20 points above their average).  It was just one of those games for Bama where everything went right.  We love looking to go against those teams in their following game as they tend to come back to earth, especially if that game is on the road.  We’re also getting a solid Mississippi State team (17-10 overall / 8-6 in the SEC) coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Texas A&M.  The Bulldogs are a definite bubble team and they travel for 2 more road games @ Mizzou and @ South Carolina after this game making this a very important home game.  MSU is 6-1 at home in SEC play with their only loss coming vs Auburn in the conference opener back in early January.  Their average margin of victory at home is +12 and they shoot nearly 50% from the field here.  The Bulldogs are also the #1 FT shooting team in the SEC (conference play) hitting 79% so if they need to hold a lead late, chances are they will.  They should also dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference (#2 offensive rebounding & #2 defensive rebounding) and they face a Crimson Tide team that is one of the worst on the boards.  Bama won the first meeting at home behind 49% shooting (38% for MSU) and +11 margin at the FT line.  That changes tonight as we fully expect Mississippi State to play some extra fire with Alabama potentially coming in a bit full of themselves off their big road win Saturday.  Lay the number.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Ole Miss +8.5 over Auburn, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

We were on Ole Miss on Saturday at home vs Bama and they laid a complete egg losing 103-78 as a 2.5 point favorite.  The Rebels had been playing very well leading into that contest and we think they bounce back and play well here after that embarrassing performance at home.  They’ll have some definite motivation here as they blew a 17 point halftime lead at home vs Auburn just a few weeks ago and lost in double OT 83-82.  Ole Miss matches up very well with the Tigers having beaten them twice last year and taking them to double OT this season.  The Rebels have also had great success @ Auburn winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  They have one of the top players in the conference in guard Tyree (leads the SEC in scoring at 21 PPG) and his backcourt mate Shuler is a veteran as well.  We really like the Rebels veteran guards on the road vs an overvalued Auburn team.  Four of the Tigers last six wins have come in OT and they made a monumental comeback here on Saturday erasing a 17 point second half deficit vs Tennessee to pick up the 7 point win.  One of their top players, Isaac Okoro, was out with an injury and is questionable at best for this one.  Even if he does play we expect Auburn to limit him as he has missed 3 straight games not having played since February 12th.  Another key here is Auburn has Kentucky on deck so they want to make sure he’s ready for that game (Tigers lookahead spot here).  Auburn is a poor shooting team (13th in the SEC in eFG% and they are not a great FT shooting team at 68% if they are trying to close the game out late.  We like Ole Miss to give Auburn all they can handle here.  The Tigers have rarely won big in conference play this season – in their last 12 games only 1 win by more than 9 points.  Another Auburn game goes to the wire as we take Mississippi to cover.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them.  While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such.  Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree.  Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5.  The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State.  Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game.  A lucky might be an understatement.  MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5.  Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1).  The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them.  OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot.  When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12.  OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3.  They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe.  Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better.  At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s.  Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today.  The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home.  Ohio State is the play.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels.  However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home.  They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games.  They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou.  A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining.  Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home.  In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG.  All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play.  Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play.  They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road.  Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi  defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%.  If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here.  Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games.  We like Ole Miss to win and cover here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Tulsa -1.5 over SMU, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET

Tulsa has been a very solid home team (5-1 in AAC play) and we’re getting them off an embarrassing performance @ Houston on Wednesday.  It was a revenge game for the Cougars, the best team in the AAC, after losing @ Tulsa earlier this year.  Houston blasted Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday in a game they allowed the Cougars to score 1.21 points per possession while scoring only 0.68 PPG themselves.  It was simply a horrible performance by Tulsa.  The last time they were beaten this badly was in early January when they lost @ Cincinnati by 31 points.  How did the Golden Hurricane respond after that performance?  With a 6 game winning streaking including wins over Houston & Wichita State, the two top rated teams in the AAC.  SMU has struggled on the road in conference play with a 1-5 record.  Their lone win was by 4 @ Memphis, a game they trailed for 95% of, were down by 11 with just 6:00 minutes remaining and took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:45 remaining.  The Mustangs defense as a whole has been a problem as they rank 11th in the AAC in defensive efficiency (Tulsa ranks 2nd).  On the road they are allowing 75 PPG.  They just lost @ Tulane, the 2nd lowest ranked team in the league, on Wednesday and allowed the Green Wave to shoot over 50% and put up 80 points.  That was a Tulane team that had lost 9 straight games and ranks 11th in the AAC in offensive efficiency.  So along with our large defensive advantage with Tulsa, we also expect a big discrepancy at the FT line as the Golden Hurricane get to the line more than anyone else in the AAC while SMU shoots fewer FT’s than anyone else in the conference.  Tulsa has already proven they can beat the best teams in the conference at home and SMU falls a notch or two below those teams.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -2.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a monumentally important game for the Boilermakers.  After 3 straight losses, Purdue has now gone from in the Dance to out by most bracket experts.  Many of them in the first 4 out or next 4 out so they are close.  Their power ratings are very strong (anywhere from 15th to 25th) however their current record of 14-13 will keep them out despite their rankings.  With 3 of their final 4 games at home, Purdue needs to make a move and it needs to start today.  While they’ve had a few slip ups at home (vs Big 10 leader Penn State & vs Illinois), they’ve proven they can beat very good teams and beat them bad here at Mackey Arena.  They topped Iowa by 36, Michigan State by 29, Virginia by 29, and Wisconsin by 19 all here at home.  The Boilers have win 41 of their last 45 games at home and we think they catch Michigan in a great spot here.  The Wolverines are coming off a big road win @ Rutgers giving the Scarlet Knights their first home loss of the season.  Rutgers shot just 34%, made only 3 of 18 from three, and made only 5 FT’s and the game still was tight down the stretch.  Michigan has now won 6 of 7 which makes them overvalued here and means this game is MUCH more important for Purdue as the Wolverines are already solid in the NCAA field.  Also, beyond their big win @ Rutgers, their only road wins in Big 10 play were @ Nebraska and @ Northwestern, the 2 worst teams in the league.  They lost their other 4 conference road games.  Purdue has a drastic home/road dichotomy as they average 68 PPG on the season yet at home that jumps up to 78 PPG!  They also shoot 48% at home including 40% from 3-point land.  These two met in January with Michigan winning at home in double OT.  Purdue get that one back here and rolls at home.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +6 over Ball State, Saturday at 1:00 PM Et

We were on EMU earlier this week as a home dog vs Kent State and the Eagles rolled up a huge 70-49 win.  Eastern is peaking right now winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the conference season at 0-7.  Even during their 7 game losing streak to start the season we were seeing signs that this team was better than their record at 5 of those 7 losses came by 6 points or less.  They weren’t far away from turning the corner and they now officially have done just that.  Their only loss this month came @ Akron, who is the best team in the MAC, but just 1 point.  EMU has a very good defensive team (30th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they’ve held teams to an average of just 58 PPG during this 6 game run.  They should continue to have success defensively here vs a Ball State team that has topped 70 points only 3 times in their 13 MAC contests.  Ball State is heading in the opposite direction after winning 4 of 5 to start the MAC season, they have since lost 5 of their last 8.  The stats are in line with which direction these teams are currently headed.  Over the last 5 games, EMU is outscoring their opponents 67 PPG to 58 PPG shooting 49% while limiting their opponents to 38% from the field.  The last 5 games for Ball State have resulted in a scoring average of just 64 PPG while allowing 66 PPG with the Cards shooting 38% while allowing 42%.  And those numbers include 3 of the same opponents (Buffalo, Western Michigan, & Kent State).  Getting 6 points here is a great value with a surging EMU team.  We think they have a great shot to win the game, but if not, it should be close and low scoring (total is just 120) making the points very valuable.  EMU has covered 6 straight and they make it 7 in a row here.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET

The Spurs are not out of the playoff hunt in the West but need to make a move now if they want to continue their 22-year streak of making the post season. Despite an 23-31 SU record on the season the Spurs have an average loss margin per game of just -1.3PPG. So, while they have a losing record, they tend to play close. In the Spurs last two games against similar teams to the Jazz they won at Oklahoma City by 8 and lost in Denver by 7 (both without DeRozan who is back here). In their last ten games overall, they’ve also faced the Blazers in Portland and lost by 8. At the Clippers they lost by 3-points. They suffered one blowout loss against the Lakers but that was the second night of a back to back. In other words, against other teams that are like the Jazz they’ve been very competitive. The Jazz had a great stretch of basketball going but are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. Utah did beat Miami by 15 before the break, but prior to that they had wins over Dallas, Houston and Portland by a total of just 8-points. That ties into their 1-6-1 ATS record their last eight as a favorite. The Dog has covered 5 of the last eight in the series and we’ll back the pooch here. Play on the Spurs and the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble.  Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State.  They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years.  They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin.  The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games.  He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard.  Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January.  The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play.  They are now 9-4.  Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12.  Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe.  The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record.  Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5.  So even their wins have come down to the wire.  The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14.  Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright.    

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET

We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Minnesota -6 over Indiana, Wed at 9 PM ET

Huge game for both teams but we fully trust Minnesota will show up and play as if it is a must win game and we’re not so sure about Indiana.  The Gophers played very well on Sunday vs Iowa leading for most of the game until a late offensive drought sent them to a 58-55 loss.  They led Iowa by 8 points with 5:00 minutes remaining and were outscored 11-0 from that point on.  On the other hand, Indiana was in a must win on Sunday as well and they didn’t show up at all.  Michigan blitzed the Hoosiers 89-65 and we’re hearing there are some internal problems with the IU team.  They play 3 of their next 4 on the road and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they completely take themselves out of NCAA contention during this stretch.  They’ve been horrible on the road which isn’t a surprise.  They are a young team and didn’t play a single true road game in the non-conference to prepare them for what they might see on the road in the Big 10.  IU is just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) on the road in conference play averaging just 61 PPG while allowing 74 PPG.  Their only road win came @ Nebraska, the lowest ranked team in the conference, and they’ve won just 7 of their last 30 road games.  They have lost by at least 9 points in each of their 5 road setbacks.  The Gophers have some solid home wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State and we see no reason they don’t roll over Indiana here. With both of these teams on the bubble, this might be the game that gets one of them in and leaves one of them out.  We trust Minnesota to get it done at home on Wednesday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Michigan, Wed at 7 PM ET

Rutgers has been a fabulous home team this year and we expect that to continue tonight.  They are a perfect 17-0 at the RAC this season (12-4 ATS) winning by an average score of 73-57.  With 3 of their final 4 games on the road where they are 1-6 SU on the season, this becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes.  Michigan has been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 6, however their only 2 road games during that stretch were @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska, the 2 worst teams in the conference.  Beyond those 2 road wins, the Wolverines have lost all 4 of their other conference roadies @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, and @ Illinois.  They also could be without starter Isaiah Livers here as he was injured in their Sunday win at home over Indiana.  That would be a huge loss as he just came back from injury on February 8th after missing 8 games.  Michigan was just 3-5 SU in the conference games Livers missed.  These 2 met on February 1st on a neutral site (NYC) with Michigan winning a tight game 69-63.  However, a close look at the numbers indicate that despite shooting poorly, Rutgers was right in the game to the end.  The Knights hit only 33% of their shots, made just 25% of their 3-pointers and made only 3 FT’s.  Michigan, on the other hand, shot 47% overall and from three along with making 16 FT’s yet the game came to the wire.  That’s because Rutgers dominated the boards with 51 rebounds including gathering nearly 50% of their misses (offensive rebounds).  We expect them to control the glass again here at home and we have no doubt they’ll shoot much better.  That should lead to another home win for Rutgers who continues to be undervalued (11-4 ATS in their Big 10 games).  We simply need the Scarlet Knights to win this one at home and we like them to move to 18-0 at the RAC.  Take Rutgers.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON East Tennessee State -5.5 over Furman, Wed at 7 PM ET

The winner of this game walks away in 1st place in the Southern Conference as both teams enter with a 12-2 record.  The top 3 teams in this league by a wide margin are ETSU, Furman, and UNC Greensboro.  So we like to take a look at how these two teams fared vs UCNG this season.  ETSU beat UNCG by 7 on the road and by 17 at home.  Furman has faced Greensboro just once this season losing by 13 at home.  Furman has a very solid 9-4 road record, however not one of those wins has come against a team ranked inside the top 150 (ETSU is ranked 56th) and 6 of those 9 road teams have come against teams ranked 225th or lower.  East Tennessee State is 14-1 SU at home this year and they have won 38 of their last 46 home games. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 20 points and this is a program that has won at least 24 points in 4 straight seasons and they are 23-4 this year including an 11-point win @ LSU who is currently tied for 2nd place in the SEC with Auburn.  The Buccaneers played a poor game over the weekend struggling to beat a bad VMI team on the road in what was an obviously look ahead spot.  They picked up the win in the end and played without one of the top players in the Southern Conference, Bo Hodges, but he is back and ready to go here.  These two met @ Furman earlier this year with the host winning by 9.  Furman shot significantly better than ETSU in that game and also made 7 more FT’s.  That continued a recent trend of the host winning easily in this series with each of the last 4 meetings being decided by at least 9 points with the home team coming out on top in each.  The last 2 meetings here saw the Buccaneers win by 23 and 11 points.  We have ETSU ranked a full 25 spots ahead of Furman and with revenge, a home game, and 1st place on the line we think they cover this number.     

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58.  It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100.  They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point.  Kent is on the opposite track.  After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games.  They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright!  EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC).  While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run.  During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots.  This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home.  Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET

The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game.  Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game.  They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State.  Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well.  In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road.  They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win.  They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak.  Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road.  They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern.  They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later.  Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points.  They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league.  The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here.  Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here.  The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row.  The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON DePaul +9 over Creighton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET

We like the value and the situation with DePaul  in this game.  These two met just a few weeks ago @ DePaul and the Blue Demons were actually favored by 2 in that game.  That tells us they should be +6 or +7 here so we’re getting some value on the Demons.  Creighton won that game in DePaul making 10 three pointers (DePaul was just 3 of 17 from deep) and 23 FT’s (DePaul made 17).  The Blue Demons won the battle on the boards and pulled down a solid 34% of their missed shots with offensive rebounds.  That won’t change here as the Blue Demons are solid on the glass while the Blue Jays are a very poor rebounding team.  The Blue Demons also played that game without one of their top players (Jaylen Butz) and he is back at full strength for this one.  DePaul is also very good defensively which is one thing we like to see in a hefty underdog.  They rank 49th nationally in defensive efficiency and 65th in eFG% defense, both much better than Creighton.  While the Jays have the edge offensively, we think DePaul can keep this close as they seemingly always do.  They are 7-3 ATS this year as an underdog and despite their very misleading 1-10 Big East record, the Demons have played tight on the road vs Villanova (lost in OT), Marquette (lost by 3), Seton Hall (lost by 7), Georgetown (lost by 4), and @ St Johns (lost by 7).  Thus, they have not lost a single conference road game by more than 7 and have had opportunities to knock off many of the best teams in the conference away from home.  They catch Creighton coming off a monumental road win @ Seton Hall on Wednesday.  The Jays gave the Pirates just their 2nd Big East loss this season.  Creighton also has a huge game on deck with Marquette.  Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays go through the motions here vs a team they’ve already beaten.  That would be a mistake because DePaul has had a full week off to prepare and they’ve been a very tough out in conference play.  Take the hefty points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Notre Dame +12.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET

Way too many points here in our opinion for a Duke team that is overvalued vs a Notre Dame team that is undervalued.  The Irish are 15-9 SU but a very solid 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog in ACC play.  Their conference losses have come by margins of 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 11 points.  The 11 point loss was in the season opener @ UNC way back on November 6th.  They already have 3 road wins in ACC play @ Syracuse, @ Clemson, and @ Georgia Tech.  They are catching Duke in an ideal spot for a letdown as the Devils are off an OT road win @ arch rival UNC and a 5-point home win over FSU who sits just 1 game below Duke in the ACC standings.  The Devils also have a big game on deck with in-state rival NC State.  While Duke is 11-2 in conference play, they have been far from dominant with 7 of their 11 wins coming by fewer than 12 points (which is tonight’s spread vs Notre Dame).  Three of those four wins have come vs Miami (twice) and BC, the 2 worst teams in the ACC.  Duke has actually already lost 2 home games this year vs Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  They are also just 5-7 ATS as a favorite in ACC play.  Notre Dame is playing very well right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming in OT @ Virginia.  They are a veteran team with 4 seniors in the starting line up that hasn’t been fazed by road games.  They have an efficient offense ranking 3rd in the ACC in offensive efficiency so they definitely shoot well enough to hang with Duke.  They have taken the two other highly rated teams in the ACC (Louisville and FSU) to the wire in their meeting this year and we don’t see Duke pulling away here.  We like the Irish to give Duke a run here in Durham with Duke winning but by single digits.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Richmond -1.5 over VCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET

Revenger for Richmond from just a few weeks ago when they were embarrassed @ VCU 87-68.  The Rams shot 50% for the game and nearly 50% from beyond the arc in that win.  Richmond, 18-6 on the season, simply played a poor game and did so without starting forward Blake Francis on the floor as he recently missed 6 games due to an injury including their loss @ VCU.  Francis is now back on the court and has really given the Spiders a lift in his 2 games since returning with 32 points, both road wins vs Fordham and LaSalle.  Remember this is a big rivalry game with both teams located in Richmond, Virginia so you can bet the Spiders have been waiting for this one.  VCU is trending downward losing 2 of their last 3 including a 5 point home loss on Wednesday to George Mason as a 14 point favorite.  Starting guard Marcus Evans injured his knee in the game and may not play here.  If so, he might be on a limited minutes restriction.  Richmond has better efficiency numbers in conference play both offensively and defensively.  They also are very good at taking care of the ball (15% turnover rated good for 13th nationally) which will counteract what VCU does best and that is create turnovers.  Because the Rams like to play aggressive defense with pressure, they in turn commit a lot of fouls.  In fact, they foul more than any other team in the Atlantic 10 conference.  That plays right into Richmond’s game as they shoot 78% from the line on the year which is the 9th best mark in the country.  We like this match up for Richmond and now that they are back to full strength we’ll lay the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET

This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion.  The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win.  Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th.  Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record.  Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well.  The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night.  Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas.  The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year).  It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game.  Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting.  This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year.  They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road.  They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference.  Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road.  They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots.  That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense.  This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well.  They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team.  Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league.  The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12).  However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally).  Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards.  Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season.  We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance.  This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned).  Double digit win here for Baylor.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense.  They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points.  UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points.  They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks.  On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington.  That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300.  Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference.  They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games.  UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT.  That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season.  Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA.  The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

#644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season.  After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11.  Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one.  That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer.  After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter.  He is back and ready to go tonight.  Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road.  Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss.  Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock.  The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here.  In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy).  The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team.  They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt.  The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference.  These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR.  Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home.  In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68.   Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire.  Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season.  We like Texas State to roll in this game.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Golden State +7.5 over Phoenix, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like to play on the Suns when they are a dog and against them when favored. The Warriors have to look at this game as very winnable which is rarely the case for the 12 win team. Golden State has one of the worst average road point differentials in the NBA but the Suns home MOV is barely above zero. The Suns are just 2-4 SU their last six at home and 5-6 their last eleven. Of those five home wins only one has come by more than 8-points. Golden State has lost three straight games but the two most recent games against the Heat and Lakers were very competitive. In their previous five road games they have a pair of wins over Washington and Cleveland. These teams have split the season series so far but the Warriors have covered 4 of the last five meetings in Phoenix. This is too many points for the Suns to cover and we’ll take the dog and Golden State in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These 2 are trending in opposite directions.  After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points.  Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month.  Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton.  That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8.  Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep.  They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less.  Butler’s defense is headed south.  For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP.  However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference.  For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play.  The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG.  In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential.  This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points.  Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET

You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year.  Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results.  We’ve reached that point tonight.  UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP.  It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high.  Even with that they had a shot to win.  That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense.  It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight.  Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games).  On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend.  The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league.  Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one.  With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET

#602 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Penn State is on a very solid 6-0 run but we feel this is the spot where it comes to an end.  They are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and they might be without one of their top players.  2nd leading scorer Myreon Jones (14 PPG) missed Saturday’s 83-77 home win over Minnesota due to an illness.  His status is up in the air for Tuesday’s game @ Purdue.  If you’re going to beat the Boilers on their home court you need to be at full strength and be at the top of your game.  Purdue has absolutely destroyed a number of very good teams at home this year.  They topped Virginia by 29, Michigan State by 29, Iowa by 36, and Wisconsin by 19.  The Boilers offensive numbers at home have been great averaging 78 PPG on 48% shooting and nearly 42% from beyond the arc.  They should be able to take advantage of a PSU defense that allowed 74 PPG on the road and ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference games) at defending the arc.  Defensively at home Purdue has held all but one opponent under 70 points (in regulation) in Big 10 play including limiting 3 of those conference opponents to 51 points or less.  They are just a completely different team at home.  They have struggled for much of the year on the road but we really like the fact they won by 12 @ Indiana over the weekend which tells us they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  This PSU team is solid but they are a bit overvalued due to their 6 game run.  They are a poor rebounding team which doesn’t bode well vs PU, the #1 offensive rebounding team in the conference.  Purdue is 9-3 ATS this year as a home favorite and they’ve won 15 straight here vs Penn State.  Take the Boilers at home in this one.

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +12.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We love the double-digits here with the Suns and predict a close game throughout here. The Lakers are off a few big games including a hard-fought win over Golden State and have a much bigger game on deck in Denver. L.A. has already beaten this Suns team twice this season so focus will be an issue. In the most recent Lakers 10-point home win on January 1st the Lakers jumped out to a 26-point lead after one quarter but the Suns battled the rest of the way to earn a cover. The Lakers are a public team and over-priced most nights, but tonight they are laying a hefty number. L.A. is just 8-10-1 ATS when laying double digits this season and have an average margin of victory at home of +9.2PPG. Phoenix has been very respectable on the road this season with an 11-14 SU record and the 12th best average road differential of minus -2.4PPG. The Suns are off a loss and have a solid 17-14-1 ATS record this season when coming off a beat. We like the spot to grab the points with Phoenix.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET

We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright.  Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play.  FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5.  The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less.  They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that.  Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC.  The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining.  They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season.  Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight.  The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category.  We like this match up for the FSU defense.  They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league).  That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep).  FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC.  Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot.  This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team.  While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win.  Take the points as this one goes to the wire.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win.  The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board.  The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24.  While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7).  The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team.  That is not the case.  After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field.  UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island).  They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss.  Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play.  They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home.  They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road.  UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today.    

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets  +6 over Toronto Raptors, 730PM ET

The Raptors have won 13 straight games after a big win in Indiana last night. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those thirteen wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. We were wrong to play on the Pacers last night as they just aren’t playing well but the Nets are with two straight blowout wins and W’s in 4 of their last five overall. Toronto is coming off that big win last night and even though they are 5-3 SU when playing without rest, the average margin of victory in those games is just 4.2PPG. Brooklyn is a solid 9-6 ATS when tabbed a dog in this price range this season and playing with confidence even without Kyrie Irving. It looks like Raptors Kyle Lowry may be out for this game which is an added edge for the Nets. Grab the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana -1.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2 PM ET

This is a huge game and nearly a must win for IU’s NCAA tourney chances.  They are coming off 3 straight losses and now sit at 15-7 overall / 5-6 in conference play.  Right now they sit on the bubble and they’ve struggled on the road so home wins are a must.  Their 3 losses entering Saturday came by 1-point at home vs Maryland (IU blew a 6 point lead in the final minute of play), along with road losses @ Penn State and @ Ohio State.  The Boilers are off an impressive 104-68 win at home over Iowa.  Purdue at home isn’t the same as Purdue on the road.  At home they’ve destroyed some very good competition including Michigan State (by 29), Iowa (by 36), Wisconsin (by 19), and Virginia (by 29).  On the road the Boilermakers are just 2-6 SU with their lone wins coming @ Ohio (10th rated team in the MAC) and @ Northwestern by 3 (one of the two worst teams in the Big 10).  They have averaged just 58 PPG on the road while making only 36% of their shots and 26% from 3.  That’s going to be a problem vs an Indiana team that is much more potent at home averaging 80 PPG on 48% shooting.  Purdue shot so far above their season averages in their win over Iowa on Wednesday (63% from the field / 56% from 3) and averaged a ridiculous 1.53 points per possession, a season high.  They come back to earth on Saturday on the road where they are a completely different team.  While PU was playing on Wednesday, Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this rivalry game.  IU has some extra motivation as well as they’ve lost 5 straight to their in-state rival.  We fully expect Indiana to win this game.  We also love the fact that if NDSU leads late and needs to make FT’s, they rank #1 nationally hitting 82% from the line. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Oklahoma +3.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Just a huge home game for OU and their NCAA tourney hopes.  They are 14-8 on the season and 4-5 in Big 12 play.  They have 8 wins over top 100 teams and this one would be their biggest of the season.  The Sooners are 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Kansas.  WVU is 18-4 on the season but all 4 of their losses have come on the road.  In Big 12 play they are 1-3 SU on the road with their only road won in conference play coming @ Oklahoma State who is 1-8 in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite and Oklahoma matches up really well with the Mountaineers.  WVU thrives on offensive rebounding and creating turnovers.  They are not a great shooting team especially from 3 where the hit only 30% ranking 312th nationally and they make only 62% of their FT’s.  The problem for West Virginia in this game is that OU is a very good defensive rebounding team (1st in the Big 12) which will neutralize WVU’s offense rebounding strength.  The Sooners also protect the ball very well (1st in the Big 12 in offensive turnover %) which takes away WVU’s advantage creating turnovers.  Just last year OU was favored by 10.5 points vs WVU here at home (OU won by 12) and now they are getting 3 points.  Too much of an adjustment here as we like Oklahoma to win this game outright.         

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit.  The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game.  They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games.  They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66.  Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit.  Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin.  They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU.  These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses.  NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson.  The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings.  ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG.  Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %.  North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense.  ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9.  The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET

The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET

These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference.  As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss.  There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point.  We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that.  Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland.  The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one.  Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58.  To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement.  In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game.  Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch.  Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak.  Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season.  Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game.  Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games.  On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots.  Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games.  Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday.

ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET

We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET

App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading.  They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players.  6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses).  Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned).  One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team.   UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining.  That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned.  Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well.  They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field.  UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks.  Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt.  Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago.   Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned.  We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games.  Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers.  Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers.  Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em.  We’ll take App State to win this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota.  The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch.  They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot.  The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension.  Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win.  Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough.  They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games.  They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road.  Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games.  While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game.  We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone.  After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points.  After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland.  All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road.  At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points.  MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime.  They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss.  We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins.  It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday.  PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7.  Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game.  The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game.  That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home.  Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU.  The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year.  The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points.  This is a small number to lay in this situation.  MSU by double digits.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks,  7PM ET

This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET

We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog.  The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14).  BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th.  The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable.  This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well.  The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining.  On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night.  BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9).  With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco.  We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home.  St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far.  In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time).  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %.  Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep.  They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits.  St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge.  Cougars cover easily here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET

We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach).  They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime.  Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon.  This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction.  They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon.  They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon.  Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play.  Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference.  Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate.  These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win.  The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%.  Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season.  With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal.  Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak.  Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern.  They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight.  The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers.  The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss.  Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned.  They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions.  Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking.  The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend.  Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa.  Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season.  The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts.  And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins.  Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later.  Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests.  They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points.  Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points.  Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight.  Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight.  Lay it with Maryland.  

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET

Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Penn State -5.5 over Indiana, Wed at 8 PM ET

This is a really tough spot for IU coming off a 1-point home loss vs Maryland on Sunday.  The Hoosiers led that game by 7 with 2:30 remaining and still held a 6 point lead with just over 1:00 left.  Maryland scored the final 7 points of the game to pull out a 77-76 that was marred by a near brawl after the game ended.  IU shot 52% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc and STILL lost the game at home.  Now just a few days later they have to go on the road and face a team that is playing at a high level right now and PSU has had a full week off leading into this game.  Penn State won @ Michigan by 9 last Wednesday and that was after beating Ohio State by 14 the previous weekend.  IU has had some solid performances at home, however on the road they’ve won a grand total of 1 game this year and that was @ Nebraska who is the lowest rated team in the Big 10.  Their 3 true road losses have come by margins of 20 (@ Wisconsin), 16 (@ Maryland), and 9 (@ Rutgers).  Penn State is 4-4 in league play and they have played the toughest schedule so far in the conference already having faced Michigan, Ohio State (twice), Iowa, Maryland, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Minnesota.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are 5-4 but have played one of the easiest schedules in the Big 10 having already faced both Nebraska & Northwestern, by far the two worst teams in the conference.  As we said the Nittany Lions are rested (week off) and they know this is a huge home game for them with 3 of their next 4 on the road.  They are 10-1 at home this season averaging 80 PPG while IU puts up just 63 PPG on the road.  Penn State also comes in with a little extra motivation after losing by 2 here vs Indiana last year.  PSU shot just 37% for the game, 24% from 3, and made only 11 of their 26 FT’s and still had an opportunity to win that game.  Bad spot for Indiana here and we like Penn State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Carolina +7 over Arkansas, Wed at 8:30 PM ET

South Carolina has been very successful on the road this year with a 4-2 SU mark including wins @ Virginia, @ Clemson, and @ Texas A&M.  Their two losses on the road came @ Tennessee by 1 point and @ Auburn by 13 last Wednesday.  That game had the Gamecocks walking into a hornet’s next as Auburn, who started the season 15-0, coming in off back to back embarrassing road efforts losing by double digits at Alabama and at Florida.  It was a tough spot for South Carolina to be stepping into and Auburn played great off those 2 losses.  Both these teams are 3-3 in the SEC, however Arkansas has played the easier slate already facing Vandy, Ole Miss, and A&M the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Razors may also be without the SEC’s 6th leading scorer tonight as Isaiah Joe (17 PPG) deals with a knee injury.  The thing with South Carolina is we’re getting value because they play just as well on the road as they do at home yet the number needs to be set with home court advantage or road court disadvantage in mind.  There isn’t any.  The Gamecocks average and allow the same PPG both at home and on the road.  They actually shoot better on the road hitting 47% from the field and 36% from deep.  They should dominate the boards here as well as they are one of the better rebounding teams in the SEC while Arkansas is one of the worst.  We give South Carolina a solid shot to win this game and even if they lose, we have a nice cushion and expect a close one.  Take the points.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET

Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league.  Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference.  They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation.  Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road!  Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5.  On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road.  At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota.  Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games.  This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG.  We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend.  South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits.  SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points.  On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record.  Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league.  Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team.  ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight.  So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA).  Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road.  This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it.

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic.  Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56.  The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%.  Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC.  The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points.  They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers.  Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games.  Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best.  We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points.  They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it.  They should be focused here.  Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16.  That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10.  The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015.  They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog.  Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight.

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET

We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date.  They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams.  In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12).  Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road.  At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG.  Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%.  Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time.  The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up.  Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s.  Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters.  Line value is with Siena here.  Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT.  Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON UConn -5 over Tulsa, Sunday at 12 PM ET

UConn steps into this game with a 1-4 record in AAC play while Tulsa is 5-1 yet the Huskies are favored.  Despite winning just 1 of their last 6 games, the Huskies are actually playing quite well.  Over their last 4 games UConn has beaten Tulane, lost in OT to Wichita State (2nd rated team in the AAC), lost by 6 @ Villanova (one of the top teams in the Big East) and lost by 4 @ Houston (top rated team in the AAC).  They have been right there with a chance to win facing some of the top teams in the country.  UConn has played the toughest conference schedule thus far having already faced the top 3 teams in the AAC in their 5 conference games thus far.  Tulsa only has one AAC loss (by 31 points @ Cincinnati) but they’ve played a very easy conference slate.  They have 2 conference road wins however those were against the two lowest rated teams in the league.  Prior to that the Golden Hurricanes were just 1-4 on the road this season.  Tulsa has won 4 in a row and they are coming off a monumental home win vs Memphis winning 80-40!  Back to reality here in a huge letdown spot as they head on the road to UConn where they are 1-3 SU lifetime with their only win coming by 2 points in a game the Huskies led by 9 at half and missed a layup as time expired that would have sent the game to OT.  This is a much bigger game for UConn and we really like they way they are playing now despite their record.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET

We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars.  We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State.  Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday.  These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2.  Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year.  They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league.  Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games.  One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch.  Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here.  Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team.  Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry.  The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today.  Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover.          

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET

Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road.  That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season.  Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points.  We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points.  It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck.  UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win.  It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year.  ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight.  Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak.  ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win.  They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006.  There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored.  Take Illinois State.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Providence +2.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 1PM ET

We went against this Nova team a few nights ago when they played host to Butler and we lost.  However, leading into that game, we faded the Cats twice and won each time.  We think this is a great spot to jump on Providence at home.  The Friars had won 5 of 6 heading into last Saturday including wins @ Marquette and @ DePaul along with a 16 point home win vs Georgetown.  That run ended as they played 2 very tough road games @ Creighton and @ Seton Hall losing both by 4 and 9 points respectively. In their most recent loss @ Seton Hall, the top team in the Big East, Providence shot just 36% while the Hall lit the nets at 58% but it was still just a 5 point game with under 2:00 minutes remaining. This becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Villanova is on an impressive 5 game winning streak but keep in mind their last 4 games have all been at home.  In fact, the Wildcats have played a grand total of 18 games this year and only 4 have been true road games and one of those was @ St Joes which is only a few miles from the Nova campus.  They are 2-2 on the road with wins @ St Joes (ranked 244th nationally) and a come from behind tight win @ Creighton in a game they never led until 3:30 remaining.  Their other 2 road games were double digit losses @ Ohio State and @ Marquette.  As a road favorite they’ve been terrible going 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 in that role.  We think this young Villanova team (5 underclassmen in top 7) will struggle on the road at times this year and this is one spot that fits the bill.  Providence is backed into a corner so to speak and the Wildcats haven’t been on the road since early January.  Nova is ranked 9th in the nation (overrated in our opinion) and yet they are laying only 2 points here.  With that being said, most are predictably jumping on the Wildcats with 78% of the tickets, however the line opened -2 and hasn’t budged. We smell an upset here.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET

The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time.  South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84.  As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one.  During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year.  They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit).  We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards.  Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league.   They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points.  They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense.  That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country.  The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally).  They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc.  The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset.  The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers.  He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined.  On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season.  IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit.  We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET

We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET

This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10.  The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings.  Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc.  The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7.  The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins.  They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday.  Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota.  The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG.  This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play.  As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games.  They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG.  Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here.  Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play.  Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line.  Take Michigan. 

ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation.  The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68.  At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league.  This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose.  Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th.  That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42.  They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc.  Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago.  They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%).  The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight.  After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4.  Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014.  We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after.  We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent.  Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points.  We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover.  Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  More of the same on Tuesday.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET

When the initial odds came out this morning this line immediately caught my eye. Why would the Jazz be this big of a favorite over the Pacers who have won five straight? It seems like an obvious choice to bet the Pacers so we won’t bite and will bet contrarian with Utah tonight. The Jazz have been great at home with a 16-3 SU record and an average point differential of +7.7PPG. Utah’s last four home wins have come by 22, 17, 24 and 23 points. Indiana will be playing their 3rd game in four days and coming off a game in the higher altitude of Denver last night. The Pacers used a ton of energy in a 4th quarter come from behind win that saw several starters play extended minutes. Fatigue will certainly play a part in tonight’s game against the rested Jazz. Indiana pounded Utah at home earlier this year by 19-points and we’re betting the Jazz return the favor here.

ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET

*Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET

ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA.  They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race.  One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th.  It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s).  Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not.  ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season.  They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola.  This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS).  The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th.  Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday.  Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings.  Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit.  We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them.  They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit.  Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road).  They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league.  We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018.  The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3.  Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night.  State is also one of the favorites to win the conference.  The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard).  Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup.  They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG.  South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home).  Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV.  While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET

This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Milwaukee Bucks -9 over Brooklyn Nets, 6PM ET

We typically or rarely lay points on the road in the NBA, especially a number as large as this one, but we’ll make an exception here with the Bucks. Milwaukee is in perfect harmony as a team which clearly can’t be said about the Nets with Kyrie Irving. Kyrie is easily one of the most skilled players in the NBA but is also a selfish me-first player that destroys team chemistry. The Nets actually have a better record without him on the court this season. The Bucks are capable of winning 70+ games this season with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit and the 3rd defensive efficiency numbers. Brooklyn on the other hand is 24th in offensive efficiency and 12th in DEFF. Brooklyn is 11-9 SU at home with an average differential of +0.8PPG. Milwaukee has the best average road differential in the NBA at +11PPG and have won 17 of 21 on the road this season. The Bucks have won their last five games by an average of +16.4PPG and they’ll get a double-digit win here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Alabama -1 over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 4 PM ET

South Alabama was favored here on Thursday night by 2 points over the top rated team in the Sun Belt, Georgia State, and lost by 9.  The Jags actually shot better from the field (46% to 40%) but made only 2 three pointers compared to 15 for Georgia State.  South Alabama also only made 15 of their 24 FT’s (62%) and that from a team that shoots 75% from the line on the season.  Even with that they led by 6 with 12:00 minutes remaining and it was a 3 point game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining.  And remember that was vs the top team in the Sun Belt.  Now they face a Georgia Southern team that power rates as the 3rd best team in the conference yet the spread is basically the same.  Prior to that loss the Jaguars had won 3 straight including road wins at Texas Arlington (2nd rated team in the league) and at Little Rock (currently tied for 1st place).  They catch Georgia Southern playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and coming off a win @ Troy.  GSU has now won 3 straight but they were against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Sun Belt (UL Monroe, Troy, and UL Lafayette).  Even with their win @ Troy, the Eagles are still only 3-6 on the road this season with a defense allowing 73 PPG and nearly 47% away from home.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series with the only outlier coming last year when Georgia Southern topped the Jaguars here in OT giving the host a bit of extra incentive in this match up.     

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON NC State -6.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Revenge is often an overused handicapping tool but there are absolutely some situations where we feel it plays a factor.  Quick revenge, as we call it, is one of those.  That’s what we have here as these teams just met 2 weeks ago today in Clemson and the Tigers pulled out an 81-70 win as a 1-point home favorite.  In that game the Wolfpack only made 5 of 21 from beyond the arc (23%) which was 10 percentage points down from their season average (33%) and the Tigers went to the line more often and made 13 more FT’s which turned out to be the difference.  Despite that NC State was down just 3 with 5:00 minutes remaining in the game.  Now they get Clemson in Raleigh and they have some momentum coming off an easy 80-63 win here over a good Miami FL team on Wednesday.  Not only that, one of their top players, CJ Bryce, was back in the line up after missing 4 consecutive games due to an injury.  Bryce did not play in their loss @ Clemson.  Speaking of the Tigers, we feel this is a fantastic spot to fade this team.  They are coming off 2 monumental wins beating UNC on the road last weekend after losing 59 STRAIGHT times @ North Carolina.  They followed that up with a court storming home win on Tuesday vs Duke.  Before beating the Tar Heels last weekend, Clemson had played 2 true road games this year losing by 18 @ Minnesota and by 19 @ Florida State.  Their home win vs Duke was impressive however their win @ UNC was nothing special as the Heels have already lost to the likes of Wofford, Pitt, and Georgia Tech at the Dean Dome this season.  The Wolfpack have won 10 in a road at home and 28 of their last 33 games here at PNC Arena.  Finally back at full strength and with revenge on their minds, we like NC State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Great spot for the Terps here.  They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin.  Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week.  Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State.  They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good.  Not so much on the road.  Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road.  In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc.  To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories.  Not good to say the least.  Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG.  All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points.  The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game.  Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year.  Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56.  At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2.  The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season.  Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas A&M -1.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

A&M is flying under the radar right now because of their poor start to the season.  They were just 3-5 in the first 8 games and 4 of those losses came at the hands of top 100 teams.  Factor in the Aggies were still learning new head coach Buzz Williams new system and a poor start wasn’t all that surprising.  However, they have played very well as of late winning 5 of their last 7 with their only losses coming @ Arkansas and at home in OT vs LSU on Tuesday, a game they led by 6 with less than 2:00 remaining in the game.  That was the Aggies only loss at home this year (7-1 at home) and we expect them to come back and play with some fire today.  The oddsmakers continue to try and catch up with this team as they have covered 5 of their last 6 by a combined 57 points (+9.7 PPG vs the spread their last 6).  They catch South Carolina in an obvious letdown spot as the Gamecocks upset Kentucky on Wednesday night.  It was a game that UK led by 14 in the 2nd half and South Carolina had to battle back for the 3 point win.  Prior to that the Gamecocks had lost 3 straight games including a home game vs Stetson.  They are a poor shooting team (28% from 3) and make only 60% of their FT’s.  They are facing an A&M defense that is very good ranking 16th nationally allowing opponents just 36% and 23rd nationally at defending the arc allowing 28%.  They have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 60 points or less.  This is also a game that A&M has had circled since last season when they played one of their worst games of the season at home vs South Carolina losing 71-54 as a 4-point favorite.  South Carolina is a young team with 7 underclassmen in their top 8 and we think they have trouble responding on the road off such a huge home win.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET

Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  They are better than their record and playing very well right now.  After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT.  Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win.  Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena.  Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week.  Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0.  However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock.  Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina.  Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned).  The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT.  This line is too high.  Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally).  Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half.  Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close.  Take the points.