Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Alabama +2.5 over Auburn, Wed at 9 PM ET

We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this overrated, undefeated Auburn team and we’ve had our eye on this spot @ Alabama.  We really like the Tide to come up big at home and win this game outright.  Bama is trending upward right now but they are just 1-2 in SEC play making this a very important game for them.  Their 2 conference losses have both come on the road vs two of the better teams in the league.  They lost in OT @ Florida and lost @ Kentucky on Saturday.  At home it’s been a different story for the Crimson Tide as they’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams at Coleman Coliseum and handled all of them easily, including their lone SEC win over Mississippi State 90-69.  Auburn is 3-0 in league play but they’ve faced the easiest conference schedule thus far and Alabama will be the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have played all season.  The only other team they faced ranked inside the top 60 was NC State ranked 50th (Bama is 53rd) and Auburn played host to the Wolfpack and squeaked by with a 6 point win in a game they never led by more than 10.  These two teams have faced 3 common opponents this season with similar results with a slight edge actually to Bama.  The Tide beat Furman by 8, Auburn beat Furman by 3 in OT.  The Tide beat Miss St by 21, Auburn beat Miss St by 12.  The Tide beat Richmond by 12, Auburn beat them by 14.  While comparing results of common opponents doesn’t always tell the whole story, it does give us a solid comparison.  In our opinion and based on our power ratings, Alabama is undervalued right now and Auburn is overvalued.  Take the Tide to win this game outright as Auburn falls from the ranks of the unbeaten.   

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Marquette -3 over Xavier, Wed at 8 PM ET

We were on Marquette in a similar situation for our first top game of the season.  The Golden Eagles were coming off a bad loss @ Creighton and needed a win at home vs Villanova to avoid dropping to 0-2 in Big East play.  They rolled up a 71-60 win and cover in that game.  Now Marquette is off a tough OT loss to a surging Providence team and a 69-55 @ Seton Hall, the top rated team in the Big East, over the weekend.  This situation with Marquette at 1-3 in league play is even more desperate then when they face Nova a week and a half ago.  Xavier is in a similar spot at 1-3 in conference play but they are absolutely trending down over the last month or so.  They have played 3 of their 4 conference games at home yet still have only one 1 Big East game.  After starting the season 9-1 SU the Musketeers are just 3-4 their last 7 games.  They are coming off 2 straight double digit home losses which tells us they are full blown struggle mode.  The Golden Eagles step into this game as the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the nation at 40% and with Xavier hitting only 29% of their 3’s on the season (301st nationally) we are not sure they’ll have enough to make up that deficit from deep.  The Golden Eagles won here at Fiserv Forum by 18 points last year vs Xavier and they have won 24 of their 28 games here since the building opened at the beginning of last season.  We’ll have the best player on the court (Markus Howard) and it this spot we really like Marquette here. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week

This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion.  The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6.  That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining.  Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home.  They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th).  They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East.  The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field.  Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record.  They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile.  We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th.  The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score.  Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home.  They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned.  This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons.  We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32.  To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002.  They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons.  Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8.  Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament.  The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10.  The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road.  In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home.  We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.   Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade.  Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak.  They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home.  The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned.  Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.   Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend.  Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago.  They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players.  Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season.  They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th.  DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation.  The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul.  Villanova is good, not great.  Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here.  It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points.

ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET

The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Gophers at home.  They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams.  Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT.  Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night.  The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half.  Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10.  At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9.  The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday.  They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup.  In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes.  It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game!  Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough.  As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points.  Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan.  With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2.  So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record?  While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record.  Take the Gophers.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET

GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that.  They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State.  In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead.  GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams.  They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4.  As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country.  They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season.  Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far.  They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record.  The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game).  Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG.  Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game.  The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation).  Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well.  They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG.  That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State.  That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG.  GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes.  Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season.  Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota.  They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort.  Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game.  They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week.  The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State.  Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage.  On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%.  Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%.  The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road.  That has proven true thus far.  If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season.  Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON California -1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET

Cal has lost 8 of their last 10 yet they are the favorite here vs Washington State for good reason.  The Bears have played a very tough schedule to date (59th rated SOS) and 5 of their last 10 games have come against teams rated inside the top 100 and 9 of those 10 were vs opponents ranked in the top 140.  Compare that with Washington State who has played the 329th toughest schedule in the nation not playing a team ranked in the top 75 all season and facing 5 opponents ranked below 300.  The Cougars have won 7 of their last 8 yet come in as an underdog vs a Cal team that has just 6 wins on the season.  Wazzou has played 7 straight home games and they haven’t played a road game since December 4th.  They are 1-1 in true road games this year beating a bad Idaho team (ranked 318th) and losing by 8 @ Santa Clara.  Historically the Cougs have been a terrible road team winning just 6 times in their last 42 true road games.  Despite playing the vast majority of their games at home Wazzou has shot the ball very poorly all year making only 39% of their attempts (319th nationally) and just 29% of their 3 point attempts (312th nationally).  In their road games they’ve been even worst making 37% of their attempts and only 23% from deep.  The Bears are 6-2 at home this year with their only losses coming to St Mary’s & Harvard, both top 95 teams.  They are solid defensively allowing 41.5% which will be a problem for a bad shooting WSU team.  Cal will be jacked for this game as they know it’s a potential win.  It’s the only game we have them favored in the rest of the season.  We like the Bears to win this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET

We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season.  They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor.  After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games.  In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson.  Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor).  Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th).  Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court.  The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment.  The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena.  They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation).  They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers.  The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation.  Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14.  This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET

This is almost a must win for Texas State who steps into this game with just a 1-4 record in Sun Belt.  That record is very misleading as they’ve played 4 of their first 5 conference away from home.  They’ve also played a very tough conference slate thus far already facing Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas Little Rock, 3 of the top 5 teams in the league, all on the road.  Coastal Carolina (3-2 in league play), on the other hand, has played the 4th easiest conference slate with 3 of their first 5 games at home.  The Chanticleers are coming off a blowout home win over the 2nd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt (Louisiana Monroe) and now must go on the road for the first time since December 21st.  Texas State will be extra motivated here off a home loss to Troy as a 10 point favorite.  It was their first game home after a 4 game road trip and they had only one day off to get ready after playing on the road on Jan 4th and then at home on Jan 6th.  The Bobcats played their worst game of the year in that one and we expect a bounce back effort here.  It was their only home loss of the season as they are now 5-1.  State was one of the favorites in the Sun Belt entering the season and they are undervalued now at 1-4.  They have handled Coastal Carolina in 5 of the last 6 meetings and in a must win spot at home we’ll call for the cover.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion.  Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova.  They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread.  KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength.  This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons.  However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past.  We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game.  We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak.  This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams.  They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time.  Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons.  Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th).  The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation.  Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th).  Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight.  KU with the win and cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU

TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home.  This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November.  They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games.  KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home.  All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100.  Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition.  The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th.  Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half.  TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well.  Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%.  TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation.  That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task.  This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday.  They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here.        

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET

UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games.  They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here.  First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point.  This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip.  Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss).  The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6.  They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1.  All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200.  The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th.  South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington.  They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference.  This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span.  Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category.  The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win.  UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up.  Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here.   Texas Arlington is the side tonight. 

ASA 9* PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets +5 over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Indiana Pacers have played the 26th easiest schedule to date and are a bit over-rated with their current roster without Brogdon and Oladipo here. Indiana has a negative road differential of minus 0.7PPG which is 10th best in the NBA but they are 7-10 SU away from home. That tells us a lot about this team which has just ONE road win over a team with a winning record. The Pacers are trending down right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games while the Hornets are trending slightly up. Charlotte has won two straight games and despite a losing home record their average loss margin of -3.7PPG will get the cash in this match up. These teams met on December 15th in Indianapolis with the Pacers coming out on top 85-107 but Charlotte had an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of just 31%. The Hornets shoot nearly 45% at home and have covered 9 of the last ten meetings with Indiana on this court. Charlotte is the play.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored?  Looks too easy to take SDSU.  We like Utah State here.  The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference.  They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team.  They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances.  Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up.  The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point.  These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54.  The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here.  SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month.  Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue.  He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding.  Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game.  With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year.  It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West.  It will matter here.  We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not.  They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%).  The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot.  That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops).  We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

This showdown will have WAY more meaning for the cast-away Lakers that now play for New Orleans than it will for the current Lakers team. You can bet Ingram, Ball and Josh Hart have had this game circled for some time now and will give max effort against the team that let them go. We don’t feel Anthony Davis has the same hostile feelings towards New Orleans as he was the one that wanted out of town. The Pelicans are playing at a high-level right now and are off a 15-point drubbing of Houston which makes them 5-1 SU & ATS their last six games. That current run includes wins over Portland, Denver and Indiana along with Houston. The Lakers are an impressive 12-4 SU at home this season but their average margin of victory is +8.5PPG which clearly isn’t enough to grab the cash in this one. The Pelican efficiency numbers are good their last six games and they are trending in the right direction. The first meeting of the season was decided by just 4-points which will be the margin again tonight.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET

The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers.  We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET

These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal.  Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115.  Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court.  This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season.  The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins.  St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road.  Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings.  STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL.  This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues.  Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season.  So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight.  These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home.  One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess.  In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds!  They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again.  St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%.  We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET

We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier.  Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships.  They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins.  They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players).  How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas?  This might be a tough game for them.  Xavier is very good this year.  They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio.  Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2).  They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago.  The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games.  Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games.  Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT.  One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney.  That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4.  This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back.  We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game.  Take the points. 

ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET

The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight.

ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET

Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today.  While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother.  Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120.  However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category.  The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings.  They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100.  The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings).  The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion.  Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer.  We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET

We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here.  C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Buffalo -8 over Canisius, Wed at 7 PM ET

Even though these two teams reside in different conferences it’s still a great Buffalo city rivalry as the two schools are separated by just 7 miles. Buffalo has one key advantage in this matchup and it will be the difference here. Buffalo holds a significant rebounding edge, especially on the offensive end where they rank 38th in the nation in second chance baskets. If you know anything about basketball, it’s a demoralizing factor when you give up offensive rebounds and put backs and Canisius should know that all to well. The Griffins rate 262nd when it comes to allowing second chance scoring opportunities to opponents. These two teams have very similar defensive efficiency ratings with the Bulls checking in at the 203rd spot while the Griffins are 213th. On the offensive end of the floor the Bulls are 161st in efficiency ratings, the Griffins are 265th. Looking solely at the raw data we are betting on the better offensive team and the defensive team without even factoring in the schedule played to date. Buffalo has played the 127th rated schedule while Canisius has played the 349th yet have better numbers. The situation couldn’t be any better as Buffalo pulled a huge upset two games ago in beating DePaul, then were upset at home as a 16-point favorite to Army meaning they’ll be ready to play here. Recently the Bulls were an 8-point home favorite against William and Mary who rates far superior to Canisius and beat them by 11-points. Last season when these same two teams met in Canisius the Bulls were favored by 15-points and are now laying just 8 at home this season. The fast-paced Bulls will have no problem scoring enough points to win this game by 10 or more points. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season.  The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak.  They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm.  There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season.  That would be a mistake.  ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen.  The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year.  Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most.  In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41.  They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining.  They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games.  LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams.  They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU.  Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle.  This game should be tight and we take the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Stony Brook +17 over Virginia, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

The Cavs coming off their National Championship run last season are a bit overrated this year.  They lost a ton of talent off that team and they are still finding their way in 2019.  They are just 3-6 ATS this season and offense has been a huge problem.  They have topped 61 points just ONCE the entire season and that was when the put up 65 points vs James Madison who ranks 312th nationally in defensive efficiency.  UVA is shooting just 41% on the season (239th nationally) and they are even worse from beyond the arc making only 28% (311th in the nation).  That will be an issue tonight vs a solid Stony Brook defense that plays a lot of 2-3 and 1-2-2 zone as they try to force teams to beat them from the outside.  The Seawolves are very good defensively as well holding their opponents to only 38% on the season which ranks them 40th in the country.  Unlike Virginia, Stony Brook is a very solid 3-point shooting team ranking 68th nationally which is how teams can beat or stay close to UVA.  The Caves opponents this year are getting over 45% of their points from beyond the arc so you better be able to shoot from deep vs this team and the Seawolves do just that.  Stony Brook is 7-5 this season but they are experienced with 4 of their top 7 players back from a team that went 24-9 last season.  Both teams like to play at a slow pace (UVA extremely slow and Stony Brook fairly slow) which is why this total is set at only 107.5.  When a very low scoring game is anticipated, limiting possessions, it makes it very tough to cover a big number like this.  The final score based on this pointspread is anticipated to be 62-45.  As we said UVA has topped 61 only once and they face a good defense here so we’d be surprised if they top 60.  That leaves little margin for error as the Seawolves won’t have to score much to cover this number.  Take the points.

ASA 9* PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings -4.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET – Two relatively hot teams square off tonight as the Kings come into the game having won 4 of their last five while the Hornets have won 3 of four. Something must give here, and we think it will be the Kings who sustain their recent success. The Kings are getting healthy with Bagley back in the lineup and Fox expected back tonight. Sacramento’s current winning streak includes victories over quality foes such as Dallas, Houston and OKC. Charlotte can’t say the same thing as their three wins came against the Bulls, Nets and Wizards who are a combined 32-48 SU this season. In their last five games the Kings are shooting over 49% from the field with an average margin of victory of +5PPG. Charlotte is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA and recently have shot under an average of 39% their past five games.  The Kings even have better overall defensive efficiency numbers and have played better on the road than at home this season with an 11-4 ATS record away from home. Lay the points with Sacramento here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON North Texas +17 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

UNT is very undervalued with their 4-6 record.  They have played a very tough schedule (33rd most difficult) with half of their opponents thus far ranking in the top 100.  They began the year ranked 185th in Ken Pom’s rankings and despite their losing record they’ve vaulted 31 spots to 154th.  This is a very experienced team with a number of key players back and a program that has had 4 straight 20+ win seasons.  Now at full strength (a few key players returned as of late including guard Roosevelt Smart who was a starter last year) they are peaking right now.  The Mean Green are 2-2 their last 4 but their losses came by 2 vs Oklahoma, a game they led by 10 in the 2nd half, and by 9 to Utah State, a game they led by 4 midway through the 2nd half.  Both of those teams were top 50 opponents.  Dayton is very good but we have them a bit overvalued right now with their 8-1 record.  The Flyers are off a 30 point win over Drake and they have a big match up on deck vs Colorado in Chicago on Saturday.  If they overlook this UNT team, we think this can be a game.  The Mean Green shoot the 3 ball very well and 41% of their point production comes from beyond the arc (18th nationally).  That plays nicely into Dayton’s weakness defensively as they rank 287th defending the arc.  UNT has had 10 days to get ready for this big game and they are playing well right now.  5 of their 6 losses have come by less than this spread and they’ve covered 4 straight.  We think they can keep this one fairly tight.  Dayton could overlook this one and if they do, they’ll have a battle on their hands.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Miami Heat -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – The Grizzlies are expecting starting PG Ja Morant back in the lineup tonight, but he can’t have a big enough impact to cover this spread. The Grizzlies have recently hosted some similar teams to the Heat and were larger home dogs than they are tonight. In late November the Grizz were +7.5 points at home against the Jazz and lost by nine. A few days later the Grizz hosted Indiana and were +9.5 point and lost by seven. In our power ratings the Heat are better than both of those teams and favored by less in this contest. Miami is 8-6 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.1PPG but they’ve faced a brutally tough road schedule. When playing similar teams to the Grizz this season the Heat have road wins at: Atlanta (won by 9), Cleveland (+11) and at Chicago by 8-points. Miami is trending in the right direction with wins in four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. Memphis is just 4-11 SU on their home floor with an average loss margin of -5.3PPG which is 5th worst in the NBA. Miami gets a 10-point win here!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Western Illinois +2 over Eastern Illinois, Monday at 8 PM ET

This line opened with EIU favored by 2 points and with a massive 86% of the tickets coming in on that side, the line dropped to -1.5 at many spots.  That says that despite only 14% of the tickets in on WIU, heavy money came in on that side to move the number.  We agree with the move.   Western Illinois is just 2-6 yet they’ve been competitive in all but one game and that was @ Indiana to open the season.  The remainder of their losses were all decided by 7 points or less.  The Leathernecks are playing their best basketball right now.  They are 2-2 over their last 4 games with one loss coming by a single point and the other by 4 points @ Evansville who is 8-3 and won @ Kentucky this year.  Also 3 of those 4 games were on the road.  They haven’t played a home game since November 23rd and they’ve had 10+ days to get ready for this big home revenge game.  They lost 2 games to EIU last year and both went to the wire losing by 2 in OT and by 7.   Four of the five starters for Western in that game are back and they’ve been waiting for this one.  While they’ve been resting and preparing for this game, Eastern Illinois is off 2 huge wins at home vs UWGB last week and vs UW Milwaukee on Saturday.  While we like this EIU team quite a bit this year, this is a tough spot in a quick turnaround situation.  Despite their record, Western Illinois is very solid fundamentally as they rank 5th nationally in turnover percentage, 11th in 3 point shooting percentage, and #1 in FT percentage hitting nearly 89% as a team.  We like WIU to win this one at home so we’ll take the points here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET

The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

BYU is finally at full strength and clicking on all cylinders right now.  Their best player, Yoeli Childs, was suspended for the first 9 games this season after declaring for the NBA draft last year and then changing his mind.  He’s been back for 3 games now and he’s rounding into form with 56 points in 34 rebounds in those 3 games.  His first game back was an OT loss at Utah in a game BYU blew a 16-point second half lead.  Since that they’ve played UNLV and Nevada and won both of those games by 33 points!  They’ve beaten Utah State 7 straight years including 95-80 last season.   We’d argue that BYU is much improved this year returning most of the key cogs from last year’s team plus adding transfer guard Jake Toolson who was the WAC Player of the year last season at Utah Valley before coming to BYU.  Even when they weren’t at full strength this team was playing pretty well.  They are 8-4 on the year with 2 of their losses coming on the road in OT vs Boise St and Utah, and the other 2 vs Kansas & San Diego State who have combined for an 18-1 record.  Utah State is 7-1 on the year but they’ve faced an easy schedule to date (322nd strength of schedule).  They’ve played only 2 teams in the top 100 coming from 16 points down in the 2nd half to beat LSU by 2 on a neutral court and losing by 8 vs St Marys.  Over half of their 11 opponents (7) are currently ranked lower than 200.  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation (21st eFG% and 22nd 3-point %) and they are better than their 8-4 record.  This game is being played @ Salt Lake City so no home court value either way.  Having not played a top 100 team since November 20th, USU takes a huge step up here and BYU is playing too well right now.  Take the Cougars.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Wichita State -4.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Shockers have been waiting on this one.  They won 22 games last season, however their worst loss of the year by far was their 80-48 setback @ Oklahoma.  It was a fairly close game at half, but in the 2nd half Wichita was simply terrible.  They shot just 24% from the field and 19% from beyond the arc.  They were absolutely embarrassed in their biggest game of the year vs the in state big boy.  We expect the Shockers to play very well in this game.  This game is being played at In Trust Arena in Wichita which is not their true home court, but they’ll still have a home court advantage in this game.  State has some solid momentum here coming off a huge road win @ Oklahoma State last Sunday.  They dominated a very solid OSU team 80-61 on their own court crushing them on the boards 42 to 31.  Wichita has just one loss on the season and that was vs a very good West Virginia team on a neutral court.  Seven of their eight wins have come by at least 9 points and they’ve been fantastic defensively ranking 11th nationally in defensive efficiency.  OU is 7-1 on the season but they’ve only played one true road game.  That was @ North Texas, who currently has a 4-6 record, and the Sooners squeaked out an 82-80 win.  It was a game they led 4-2 early and then never lead again until less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They are not a very good rebounding team which will create problems vs Wichita and they aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (31%).  That means they have to score inside the arc to be successful and Wichita has the 16th best 2-point defense in America allowing just 41% shooting.  The Sooners lost 4 of their top 7 players from last year and this is simply a much bigger deal for the Shockers who are considered the little brother.   We feel  Wichita is the better team right now and with the extra motivation we’ll lay the small number.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Old Dominion +14 over Illinois, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

We feel this is a very dangerous game for the Illini.  They just beat Michigan here on Wednesday in what was their biggest win in years.  Now they face an undervalued Old Dominion team that we feel is better than their record.  After this, Illinois plays a big rivalry game vs Mizzou so this is an absolute flat spot.  ODU is just 3-7 on the year but they have had a full week off now to rest & regroup after playing 5 games away from home in the span of 13 days.  We realize this is also a road game but having a full week to get ready is something they haven’t had the luxury of taking advantage of.  This is a program that is used to winning with 25 or more wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons (26-9 last year).  They return 6 of the 9 players that played double digit minutes in their NCAA tourney loss last year vs Purdue.  ODU head coach Jeff Jones has never had a losing season since taking over the Monarchs back in 2014 (140-67 @ ODU entering this season).  So while they’ve gotten off to a slow start, this team will be better than what they’ve looked like thus far.  They also match up quite well with Illinois.  The Illini are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation giving them constant 2nd and 3rd scoring chances.  The Monarchs have a big front line that can match the Illini and they are the 23rd best defensive rebounding team in the country which will limit the 2nd opportunities.  The Monarchs also play very good defense ranking 60th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve allowed only 1 of their 10 opponents to reach 70 points.  The Monarchs will make this game a slow paced grinder and while we think Illinois will win, it’s not going to be as easy as this number suggests.  ODU stays within the number here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Michigan -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 12PM ET

Great spot for the Wolverines here.  They are coming off a loss @ Illinois on Wednesday and they are now back at home where they are 5-0 winning by an average margin of 88 to 69.  They’ve played an extremely tough schedule (10th most difficult in the nation so far) and they’ve already beaten 5 top 60 teams including Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa, Iowa State, and Creighton.  Their only losses on the season were @ Illinois and @ Louisville.  They play host to the Ducks here in what will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season.  They’ve played a few neutral site games including losses to North Carolina & Gonzaga in the Bahamas, the same 2 teams Michigan beat in that tourney.  The Wolverines are shooting 52% at home this year including 41% from beyond the arc.  That gives Michigan is huge advantage here as they are obviously comfortable playing and shooting at home facing a team that has yet to venture onto an opponent’s home court.  The Ducks have been a solid shooting team but in their 3 neutral site games they shot just 40% from the field and lost 2 of those games as we mentioned above.  Defensively Michigan should have the edge as well ranking 16th nationally in defensive efficiency (vs a very tough schedule) compared to Oregon’s 52nd in that same category.  It’s tough to win on the road period, much less vs a top notch opponent that will be extra motivated coming of a loss.  Oregon has won 20+ games in each of the last 2 seasons yet they are just 9-14 SU on the road.  We like Michigan in this spot.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +7 @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET – The Suns were over-priced early on with surprise success by winning 7 straight games to start the season. Now that teams are starting to figure out the Suns the wins haven’t come as easily with a 4-7 SU record their last eleven games. We played on the Suns the other day when they were a sizeable underdog at Houston (and won) but now we fade them as a mid-range favorite. Phoenix has allowed their last five goes to shoot an average of 49% from the field while giving up over 117PPG. The Grizzlies got a win in their last game at Golden State when starting rookie PG Ja Morant was back in uniform. Memphis also got a double-double from Valnciunas along with 32 combined points from Brooks and Jackson Jr. The last time the Phoenix Suns were laying a number like this one at home they lost outright to the Washington Wizards. Memphis is a much better team with Morant on the floor and they’ll keep this game close tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Winthrop +12 over TCU, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Winthrop comes in with a 4-5 record but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation (45th ranked SOS) and they’ve been very competitive.  4 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or less and their other loss was by 13 points @ Duke.  In that game the Blue Devils were +10 made FT’s and shot 58% from beyond the arc to just 28% for Winthrop and it was STILL a competitive game.  Duke led by 7 at half and it was still a 7 point game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining.  In their 4 games vs top 130 teams, the Eagles beat St Mary’s on the road, lost @ Fresno by 3, lost at East Tennessee State by 3 and lost @ Duke by 13.  They are a dangerous team because they make 3’s at 9.3 per game (45th nationally) and tonight they face a TCU defense that ranks 332nd in 3-point percentage allowed at 39.2%.  The Frogs also allow their opponents to score 35% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 65th most in the nation.  The Frogs have played only 2 top 100 teams and lost to both (Clemson on a neutral site and USC at home).  Their most recent game vs USC on Friday the Frogs rallied from an 18 point second half deficit only to still lose by 2.  A lot of physical and mental energy was used in that come back and we expect them to be flat vs an opponent they may not get the motor going.  That would be a mistake.  Beyond their 2 losses, TCU has played only 2 other teams ranked between 100 & 200 beating UC Irvine at home by 1 & Illinois State at home by 12 which was their largest lead of the game (TCU led by just 6 with less than 4:00 remaining).  Winthrop is one of the better mid major programs (6 straight winning seasons) and they will be ready here as they have been all season vs big conference opponents.  They are rested as they’ve played only 1 game since December 1st and if TCU comes in flat at all, they could be in trouble.  Take the 12 points as we expect a tight game here.

ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Hofstra -4 over Stony Brook, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Hofstra was 27-8 last year and while they lost leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman they do return a number of key players from last season including 3 starters and their top reserve.  They have started slower than they expected with a 6-4 record, however they have played only 3 home games on the season.  In fact, their last home game was nearly a month ago on November 15th.  They have won 20 of their last 22 home games and they are coming off an embarrassing 73-45 loss @ St Bonnies on Saturday so we expect a big effort here.  Stony Brook comes in with a 7-3 record but 6 of their wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower.  Their lone decent win came against North Dakota State (ranked 157th) winning by 7 on a neutral court.  The Seawolves have also been very shaky on the road this year where they are 2-2 with their wins coming vs Wagner (ranked 330th) by 3 points in OT and vs Texas A&M Corpus Christie (ranked 305th) by 5 points.  They are shooting just 39% from the field in those 4 road games.  Hofstra is shooting over 47% in their 3 home games while averaging 85 PPG.  They have 9 days off after this so absolutely no look ahead, plus they’ve been away from home for a month as we mentioned.  Stony Brook, on the other hand, is coming off 2 easy wins at home vs weaker competition and they have a huge game on deck with Providence this weekend.  Getting a very solid Hofstra team at home in this spot with a manageable number is very nice value.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin (pick-em) over Indiana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Huge value with Wisconsin here in our opinion.  It this game was played 2 weeks ago, Wisconsin is favored by 3 to 4 points.  Now after a few losses, we’re getting them at an even game at home.  This becomes a huge home game for the Badgers who have lost 3 in a row to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State, all top 100 teams away from home (or neutral).  They shot absolutely horribly in those 3 losses (2 in NY and 1 @ NC State) and now that they are back in the Kohl Center we expect a much better shooting performance.  They made less than 20% of their 3 pointers combined in those 3 losses but they are hitting 37% behind the arc and averaging 75 PPG at home this year.  That includes a 16 point win over Marquette, the highest rated team they’ve faced this season.  Indiana is undefeated on the year but they have yet to play a road game, not even a neutral site game.  They have played only 2 top 100 teams on the season and their current strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 351 teams.  The Hoosiers are solid but they are a young team (2 freshmen starters) that we expect to struggle in their first road game.  The Badgers have DOMINATED this series winning 19 of the last 22 meetings with IU’s only wins coming by 1, 2, and 2 points.  Wisconsin will be in desperation mode at home after 3 straight losses and all they have to do is win this game to cover.  Take the Badgers.

ASA 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

Ohio State comes in undefeated however they have yet to leave Columbus.  All 7 of their games this year have been in the friendly confines of Value City Arena.  They are a young team (6 underclassmen averaging 10+ minutes per game) that may experience some growing pains on the road at times and we expect that in their first road game tonight @ the historic Dean Dome.  UNC has one loss but they’ve played the much tougher schedule, especially as of late.  The Heels are coming off games vs Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon last week all on a neutral site.  OSU has not played a top 100 team since November 13th with their last 4 games coming against Stetson, IPFW, Kent, and Morgan State.  Now they take a HUGE step up in competition and on the road.  We’re not sure they’re quite ready for that.   The Heels also got a boost last week when senior Brandon Robinson returned after missing their first 4 games due to an injury.  Robinson showed no signs of a slow start with 34 points in his 3 games while averaging nearly 30 minutes per game.  Super Frosh Cole Anthony (20 PPG) has a banged up ankle for UNC but he has been able to rest it since last Friday and he practiced on Tuesday and appears ready to go.  OSU has struggled on the defensive glass despite their easy slate and UNC is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation so we expect a big advantage on the boards.  It’s obviously very tough to walk into the Dean Dome and beat the Tar Heels.  They are 58-6 SU their last 64 home games AND 56 of those 58 wins have come by at least 4 points which would cover tonight’s number.  We like North Carolina to hand OSU their first loss of the season.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

The Lakers have played one of the NBA’s softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 7 have been against teams with winning records and they are 4-3 in those games after a win in Denver last night. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (3rd) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. After playing a game in the higher altitude of Denver last night the Lakers will have a tough time finding their legs tonight in Utah against a Jazz team in a foul mood after two straight losses. The Jazz home/road dichotomy is very strong as they are 8-1 SU at home compared to 4-8 SU on the road. The Jazz have a negative differential of -3.5PPG on the road but are plus +7PPG at home. Again, the Lakers are 2-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.7PPG playing their weak schedule. Utah shoots over 47% at home and hold foes to just 42.1%. The Jazz were plus +3.5 points in L.A. earlier this season and lost by 9-points. The natural swing in the point spread should have them -5.5 points in this contest so we’ll grab the value and the rested home team against a team off a road win in Denver.

ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA's 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Butler, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

These two met last year @ Butler and Ole Miss led by 5 with around 5:00 minutes remaining and lost by 7.  That should motivate them for this rematch.  Not only that, the Rebels, who are 5-2 on the season, are coming off an embarrassing effort in Kansas City facing Oklahoma State.  The Rebs were favored by 2 in that game and lost 78-37.  Yes you read that correctly.  It was simply a horrible performance as Ole Miss made 29% of their shots overall and made ONE 3-point shot in 20 attempts!  After the game head coach Kermit Davis called it “embarrassing” and we expect them to come out with some fire tonight at home.  They were playing well entering that game beating a very solid Penn State two days prior to this debacle and nearly topped #15 Memphis on the road a few days before that losing by 1- point.  Butler is 7-0 on the season and ranked 24th yet they are an underdog here against t team that just lost by 39 points?  That’s why the vast majority bets are coming in on Butler yet this line is not moving.  Ole Miss is still a favorite.  This is the Bulldogs first true road game and they have a huge revenge game on deck as they host Florida on Saturday, a team that beat them 77-43 last season.  Butler is solid but this situation sets up very nicely for an Ole Miss team that brings a number of key performers back from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  All they have to do is win at home and we feel they will give Butler their first loss of the season.  Take Ole Miss.      

ASA play on: #527 Utah Jazz +5.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Jazz have struggled a little to start the season with a 12-8 SU record but they’ve also faced the Bucks twice, Clippers twice, the Lakers and this same Philly team. Those are four of the best teams in the entire NBA and we can even include the Raptors who are 15-4 this season. Speaking of Toronto, the Jazz were just beaten and embarrassed by the Raptors yesterday. Because that game was a blowout early the Jazz didn’t have a player play more than 31-minutes in the contest which means fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. Utah was just +2-points at Toronto so you can see for yourself the added value with this number. Philadelphia is coming off a home win in their last game and were favored by 6-points over Indiana who isn’t as good as Utah. The 76ers are slightly better in both offensive and defensive efficiency but again, a lot of that has to do with scheduling. Utah holds opponents to 43.4% shooting while the 76ers allow foes to hit nearly 46% of their FG attempts. The Jazz can rebound with the 76ers and limit easy second chance baskets here. Take the points with Utah.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET

NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons.  They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now.  They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser.  They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally).  Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year.  The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance.  However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech.  Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program.  With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5).  This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success.  We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

This line is light according to our power ratings.  We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here.  The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom).  The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2).  Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category).  In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2.  Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half.  This is a favorable match up for the Hall.  They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team.  They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally).  The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones.  They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s.  As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one.    

ASA PLAY ON: Washington Wizards +10.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – We’re clearly betting a number here more than anything and here’s why. First off, the Nuggets have been double-digit favorites just three times this season with a 1-2 ATS record. The lone cover came in their last game as an 11-point favorite which they won by 12 barely covering the spread. In the other two games as a hefty favorite they won by 1-point in OT and won the other by just 4-points. In other words, the Nuggets aren’t good as a big favorite. Denver has an average margin of victory at home this season of +5.7PPG which is nearly half of what the spread is here. Washington has been a surprise this season and better than anticipated. They’ve won 2 of their last three games and 3 of their last five. Despite their 3-5 SU record their average point differential is minus just -1.2PPG. The Wizard have been a double-digit dog just once all season and they lost that game by only 2-points. Washington can score with the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA which allows them to keep this game close throughout. Grab the points.

ASA's 8* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -9 over Richmond, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2

This one is on a neutral court in Brooklyn NY.  Richmond upset Wisconsin last night as a 6-point favorite by the final score of 62-52.  It was much closer than that as the two went back and forth the entire game.  With just over 3:00 minutes remaining it was one possession game and neither team led by more than 6 in the 2nd half until less than 3:00 remaining.  Wisconsin played easily their worst game this year and one of the worst we’ve seen them play in the last few years.  They shot 34% overall, just 26% from beyond the arc and turned the ball over on 24% of their possessions which is extremely high for that program.  They scored ONE basket in the final 11 minutes of the game (7 total points during that time).  Even with that, they had a chance to win this game which is an indictment on Richmond moving into tonight’s game vs red hot Auburn.  It might be a tough spot on a back to back night situation for the Spiders as they played only 6 guys double digit minutes last night and 3 of their starters played 34+ minutes.  Auburn destroyed a solid New Mexico team 84-59 last night.  Because of that they were able to spread their minutes around (9 guys played at least 12 minutes) in anticipation of their game tonight.  The Tigers should be much more rested than Richmond here.  They love to put defensive pressure on their opponent which will be a problem here with Richmond’s 2 starting guards logging 38 & 35 minutes yesterday.  We expect them to wear down.  Auburn was able to cause turnovers on 31% of New Mexico’s possessions yesterday and if they do that again, we’re looking at another blowout.  The Spiders are 5-0, however before they beat a decent Wisconsin team yesterday, they had won 2 games in OT this season and hadn’t played a team ranked in the top 125.  Auburn is also undefeated and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 by at least 10 points with 3 of those wins coming by 25 points or more.  That includes wins over a good New Mexico team, Davidson (always a very good mid major), and Colgate (won by 29) who nearly beat Tennessee in the NCAA tourney last year and returns nearly everyone.   Richmond will be very solid this year in the A10 conference but we feel this is a bad spot for them and we expect Auburn to pull away in the 2nd half here.  Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma -4 over Stanford, Monday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN2

Both these teams come in undefeated but all records are not created equal.  OU has beaten 2 top 75 teams (Minnesota & Oregon State) both by 8 or more points and both on neutral courts.  The Sooners are experienced returning 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and gave Virginia a run in the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney last year before falling to the eventual National Champion.  Stanford is the opposite as far as experience.  They are young starting 2 freshman including point guard Tyrell Terry.  The Cardinal have yet to leave their home arena this season and we’ll see how this young team adjusts to a different environment.  We know Oklahoma can adjust as we mentioned with 2 solid win not on their home court.  On top of that, Stanford has not yet played a team ranked higher than 134th and 5 of their 6 games have come against teams rated 200th or lower.  This will be by far the best defense Stanford has faced with Oklahoma ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency.  Prior to this the Cardinal have not faced a team ranked inside the top 125 in defensive efficiency.  The Sooners are a very well coached team under Lon Kruger and it shows in their key stats where they are very good defensively, they turn the ball over very little (5th best turnover ratio in the country), they get to the FT line and make them when the do get there (81% as a team), and they don’t foul very much with their opponents getting only 8.7% of their points from the line which is the lowest mark in the NCAA.  Kruger has his teams playing well early in the season with a 27-2 SU record in November & December since the start of the 2017 season.  We’ll lay this small number with Oklahoma on Monday night on a neutral court in Kansas City, a venue they are very familiar with as the Big 12 tourney is played here.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Akron +18.5 over Louisville, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a unique situation early in the season as these two teams have already played 3 common opponents.  With that, we have a pretty solid comparison.  Each has played USC Upstate, Youngstown State, and NC Central.  Both are 3-0 vs those common opponents and the results have been fairly similar.  Akron has beaten those teams by an average of 21 points while Louisville has beaten them by an average of 26 points.  Akron is a veteran team that can shoot the ball well from deep.  That plays into Louisville’s weakest part of their defense as they rank 145th in 3-point defense.  Teams that have good guard play and can hit from deep are always a threat as a big underdog.  Akron also plays very good defense which is another big factor.  They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and that’s no fluke as they ranked 14th in that category last season.  Akron’s only loss this year was a 10-point setback @ a very solid West Virginia team in a game that the Zips shot only 38%.  They impressed us on the boards in that game getting out rebounded by just 1 against a WVU team that is consistently among the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Akron proved last year they can hang with top notch opponents as they took Clemson to the wire (lost by 3) as well as a 29-5 Nevada team (lost by 6).  This number is too high as we expect the Zips to be competitive here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA 10* play on: Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – The line on this game smells fishy which means we back the team that doesn’t look right. Let’s look at the number on this game. In comparison the Celtics were plus this same number in Milwaukee earlier this year and the Bucks are one of the four best teams in the NBA. Phoenix was recently a -1-point favorite over a Philadelphia team that grades out slightly lower than Boston.  Boston had won 10 straight games prior to yesterday’s loss in Sacramento. So why is this number as high as it is? Because they want you to take the Celtics and the points. The Celtics have the 3rd best average differential in the NBA at +8PPG, Phoenix is 5th at +7.1PPG. Both teams are top 5 in offensive efficiency and top 12 in defensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a loss yesterday and playing their 3rd game in four nights so fatigue is a factor, especially considering the Suns have been off since the 14th. Boston’s road wins aren’t spectacular as they haven’t beat a winning team on the road and the combined record of those teams are 20-45 SU. Phoenix on the other hand has some quality games at home with wins over the Philadelphia and the Clippers and a 1-point loss to Utah. The bet here is on Phoenix at home minus the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET

UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite.  Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%.  It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG.  It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season.  Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons.  They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago.  Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game.  In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State.  They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss).  App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation.  Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record).  They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around.  While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season.  Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season.  It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally.  App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate.  This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home.  UNCG wins by double digits. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Nebraska -6.5 over South Dakota State, Friday at 8 PM ET

The Huskers come into this game with an 0-2 record giving us some line value here.  Their most recent game was a home loss to a very solid Southern Utah team in OT.  The Huskers were laying 7.5 and 8 in that game vs an SUU team that is rated 10 to 15 spots higher than this South Dakota State team yet Nebraska is laying just 6.5 here.  Nebraska is working with a new head coach Fred Hoiberg who has big success at Iowa State.  He is integrating a number of new but talented players into the lineup.  They looked very poor in their season opener, but much better against Southern Utah although Nebraska did blow an 11 point halftime lead in that game.  SUU went to BYU a few days after their game @ Nebraska an nearly beat a very solid Cougar team so they are solid.  Now the Huskers have had off since November 9th and we expect a solid effort here in a very important game for them.  They do not want to drop to 0-3 with some big road games coming up vs Washington State (neutral site), @ Georgia Tech, @ Creighton, and @ Indiana.  South Dakota State is also replacing their head coach TJ Otzelberger who took the head job at UNLV.  New head coach Eric Henderson has very few experienced players to work with this year.  While Nebraska has had nearly a week off to regroup, South Dakota State was in California facing Cal State Bakersfield in Nov 9 (win in OT) and @ USC on Nov 12 (18 point loss).  Now just a few days later they are in Nebraska taking on a desperate Husker squad.  We’ll lay this small number and look for Nebraska to pick up a big win here.  

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30PM ET – The Celtics will be without Gordon Hayward tonight and yet the line has not fluctuated. That’s because the Celtics have the luxury of moving Marcus Smart into the lineup so don’t expect a drop off for Boston. The C’s were 28-13 SU at home last year with an average differential of +6.8PPG. They are 3-0 SU this season with quality wins over the Bucks and Raptors. Dallas on the other hand is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS on the road this season but 3 of those wins have come against Memphis, New Orleans and Cleveland who have a combined 8-19 record. Going back to 2016 the Celtics have a 105-46 SU home (70%) record and they’ve won those games by an average of +4.8PPG.  We will lay the points here with Boston at home.

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz +3.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we know this isn’t going to be a popular pick as everyone has been brainwashed into thinking LeBron is still the LeBron he was 5 or 6 years ago and this Lakers team will win it all this year. The reality is that LeBron won’t win another Championship! In LBJ’s defense, it gets lost he’s played 16 NBA seasons. But when you add in 239 playoff games it essentially adds three more seasons to his resume. Father time is unbeaten. Moving on, it’s going to take time for this roster to jell and they face a Utah Jazz team that won 50 games a year ago, was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and had the 4th best road point differential at +2.7PPG. The Jazz won their opener against OKC the other night and did it with newly acquired Mike Conley going 1 of 16 from the field.  This roster is deep and has playmakers at every position including Donovan Mitchell who scored 32 in the opener. With Joe Ingles in the lineup the Jazz have beaten the Lakers in 14 of the last eighteen meetings. Contrary to what you might think, the Lakers have not been good off a loss with a 4-10 ATS record their last fourteen. The Lakers are going to get everyone’s best punch every single night and the Jazz will come here and send this other Los Angeles team to 0-2.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors -6.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Tuesday 8PM ET – The news out of the Big Easy is the injury status of Zion Williamson who is now out for 6-8 weeks after knee surgery. That news doesn’t affect this game though as he was already out for this season opener. The Raptors are without Kawhi Leonard here who left the Great North for green pastures in Los Angeles, but this roster still has talent. Toronto has Marc Gasol in the middle, budding star Pascal Siakam, (All Star) Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. The Raptors had the 3rd best overall point differential in the NBA last season and the 7th best at home of +7.5PPG. Home court has been a tremendous advantage for the Purple Dinasaurs in recent years as their average margin of victory since 2017 is +8.6PPG. The Pelicans were just 14-27 SU on the road last season with Anthony Davis on the roster. Their average loss margin per game on the road was minus -1.8PPG which was 18th in the NBA. This team is now essentially the Lakers from a year ago with Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart coming to New Orleans in the trade for A.D. Last year when the Lakers went to Toronto, they were +7-points and they had LeBron on that roster. Last year the Raptors won 32 regular season home game and 23 of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. This Raptors team is going to be very eager to prove it wasn’t all Kawhi last year and they’ll get a double-digit win in the opener.

ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!

ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.

ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.

Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.

ASA  play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –

The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds.  The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.

ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 4) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. In Game 3 it was a 1-point game at halftime, but the Bucks controlled the tempo and game for much of the second half in a relatively easy win. The Bucks shot over 50% and got a surprise 21-points from George Hill off the bench. The Celtics shot just 43% as a team and gave up 52 points in the paint to the Bucks. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-3 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last eight clashes with the Bucks on this floor. The home team has won 70% or 7 of the last ten meetings and with the line where it is, we are essentially asking the Celtics to just win on their home court. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 4. 

ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1.  Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points!

ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points.  

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits.