Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU.  They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog.  The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc.  ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers.  Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter.  However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs.  They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points.  We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game.  All of that and UNI still only won by a single point.  ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game.  Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points.  This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago.  They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot.  Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot.  They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games.  Lay it as Old Dominion rolls.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU

This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get.  This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU.  Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros.  That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here.  First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup.  All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team.  The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years.  They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts.  It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run.  While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition.  Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points.  The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games.  They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season.  The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago.  San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight.

ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #516 Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:00 PM ET - We like Memphis, a mid-tier Western Conference team over the lower-tier Mavericks. The line on this game has been impacted by the four game winning streak of Dallas but we like the overall value with Memphis minus the points. Dallas is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with the lone ‘W’ coming in Chicago, who is one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Mavs have the 8th worst road point differential in the league at -7.6PPG. They have the 4th worst road offensive efficiency rating and are around league average in DEFF. Memphis is 6-1 SU at home this year with an average point differential of +7.9PPG (11th), the 4th best DEFF and 15th in OEFF when playing on their own floor. Neither team has an advantage scheduling wise as the Grizz played yesterday which is a negative but the Mavs are off a huge upset win over Golden State the day before. Memphis is similar to the Jazz, Spurs and Lakers who were all 7+ point home chalks over Dallas recently. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: #589 SE Missouri State +6 over South Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - South Alabama is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation so far this season.  If you throw out their game vs Huntingdon (don’t ask) they are shooting just 32% from the field and averaging only 59 PPG.  They rank 347th out of 351 teams in offensive efficiency.  They are 2-2 on the year with their only wins coming against Huntingdon and Chattanooga (ranked 329th nationally).  They were just beaten 71-48 at home vs Jacksonville.  Their opponent tonight, SE Missouri State, played that same Jacksonville team last Friday on this court (Mobile, AL – South Alabama’s home court) and beat them 77-71.  SEMO controlled the boards in that game (+13) while South Alabama was outrebounded by 13 against that same Jacksonville team. After losing to Saint Louis & Bradley to start the season, the Redhawks have some momentum entering tonight winning 3 straight.  They are a solid defensive team ranking 58th nationally in eFG% defense and 7th nationally in 3 point FG% defense.  That will be a problem for the Jaguars who, as we told you, can’t shoot.  In this one we get the better defensive team and better rebounding team getting points.  We’ll take it.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -16 over Niagara, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Great spot here for Loyola.  The Ramblers, as you probably remember, made a great run to the final 4 last season.  They finished the season 32-6 and they return 4 of their top 6 players from that team, including PG Clayton Custer who was the talk of the tourney last year.  In their season opener they crushed UMKC 76-45.  That UMKC team was rated 262nd in the Ken Pom efficiency ratings at the time of the game.  Tonight’s opponent, Niagara is rated 253rd so very similar teams as far as we are concerned.  What makes this a great spot it Loyola played very poorly in their 2nd game of the season and they were upset 60-58 by Furman.  The Ramblers blew a 13 point second half lead and they were just 3 of 20 from deep (15%) in that tight loss.  You can expect them to come out with some fire tonight as they’ve had 5 full days to let that loss stew.  This is a team that has a shut down defense allowing opponents to shoot just 34% and just 52 PPG after 2 games.  It isn’t a fluke as this team gave up just 62 PPG last season.  Niagara is playing just their 2nd game of the season tonight which comes after they upset St Bonnies at home 80-72 just 2 nights ago (Monday).  The Purple Eagles shot just 43% and allowed 47% in that game but benefitted 19 made FT’s to just 2 for St Bonnies (+17 at the FT line).  We look for them to struggle from the field again tonight but they an advantage at the stripe vs a Loyola team that doesn’t foul much.  Take Loyola Chicago.

Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland.  They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. 

ASA Play on: #503 LA Clippers + over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Clippers here based on line value and matchups. Let's talk numbers first. The Clippers most recent road game saw them +3 at OKC. The Clippers were plus only 3-points at OKC who is nearly identical to the 76ers in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  A few games earlier the Clippers were +5.5 (same as tonight's line) in New Orleans who is a contender in the West. Now L.A. is catching that same number against a Sixers team that isn't living up to their preseason hype. L.A. is 12th in offensive efficiency ratings, 8th defensively. Philly is 22nd in OEFF, 10th DEFF. These two teams have similar records at 4-3 (L.A.) and 4-4 (PHI) but yet the Clippers have a positive differential of +5.3PPG while the 76ers are negative at -1PPG. The Clippers have a big capable of slowing Embiid and two defensive guards in Bradley and Beverley to contain Simmons. The Clippers have played the tougher schedule yet have better statistics than a Philly team yet to play up to their expectations. Easy buy sign with L.A. tonight.

ASA Play: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - At first glance you might not be sure about laying points with the visitor here but it makes sense. Orlando was 25th in home scoring differential in 2017-18 at -4.6PPG so we're not afraid of laying points with the Blazers on the road here. We like the situation as the Blazers are off an OT loss at home to the Wizards, while the Magic are off a big upset win in Boston. Did the Magic beat the C's or did the Celtics beat themselves? The Celtics shot horrendously from beyond the arc at 22% with 40 3-point attempts. Orlando opened the season with a home win over the Heat but were then blown out on their home court by Charlotte, 88-120. This will be Portland's first road game so they should be focused off that loss and with 2 days rest. The Magic were 25th in offensive efficiency last season and 19th defensively. The Blazers had the 9th best DEFF ratings in the league last season and were 15th offensively. Last year as a -4.5 point favorite the Blazers won by 7 on this same court. At home against the Magic the Blazers won by 5. The Magic struggle to shoot the basketball at just 41.5% on the season which is 27th in the NBA. Portland doesn't have that problem with the dynamic guard duo of McCollum and Lillard. 

ASA play on: Washington Wizards +5 over @Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - This is an interesting number as the Blazers were just -3 points against the Lakers who are essentially even with Washington who is now getting 5-points? The Wizards have lost two games to playoff teams from a year ago, Toronto and Miami,  by a combined 5 total points. Now they go on the road to face a Portland team off TWO huge home wins over the Lakers and Spurs. Washington has the guards in Wall and Beal to match Portland's strength with Lillard and McCollum. The Wiz were 20-21 SU on the road last year with an average differential of -2.1PPG which was slightly below league average. Portland was 28-13 SU at home a year ago with an average differential of +4.6PPG. The visitor covered both meetings last year and based on the line move and money we like the road team again. Play on Washington Wizards.

ASA NBA play on: #506 Portland Trailblazers - over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET - What does it tell you that the LA-Bron led Lakers, who have a HUGE media following and public affection are a 3-point dog here? Los Angeles money and tickets have steadily flowed in on the Lakers yet the line on this game has moved from the Blazers being a -2.5-point favorite to a -3-point chalk. After doing this for 30+ years I've learned it's better to be on the Sharps side than the Squares. Portland won 49 games last year in the regular season and had the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at +2.1PPG. The Blazers home differential was +4.1PPG was 11th best in the league. Portland was 8th in defensive efficiency ratings, 16th in offensive efficiency and had the 4th best rebounding rate in the NBA. Rebounding will play a huge part in this outcome as the Lakers, who were the 2nd best rebounding team in the league last year, lost Randle, Lopez and Nance Jr who combined for 18.4 rebounds per game. Sure the Lakers added LeBron James but they also lost Julius Randle who averaged 16.1PPG, 8RPG and 2.6APG last season. Randle just put up 25 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Pelicans last night in just 24 minutes so don't think for a second he won't be missed. Yes, LBJ will more than make up for those numbers but again it's going to take time for this rebuilt roster to jell. Portland returns everyone from last year's roster and will be anxious for this national TV game at home where they are 118-57 SU since 2014 with an average MOV of 5PPG. Portland has beaten the Lakers 15 straight and will make it 16 tonight. 

ASANBA pick - Play on the Utah Jazz -8.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9PM CT - We don't have a problem laying this number on the road with a Jazz team that was 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency last year allowing just 1.016 points per possession. Sacramento on the other hand were one of the worst defensive teams in the league allowing 1.090 points per possession. Utah returns essentially their entire team as do the Kings who added the 2nd overall pick in Marvin Bagley III. The problem with Bagley is that he couldn't play defense in college which is why Duke was forced to play zone last year. Utah was one of just 6 teams in the NBA last year to have a positive differential on the road, while the Kings had a negative average differential of -5.3PPG, second worst number in the NBA. Utah swept the Kings last year 3-0 and have won five in a row in the series. Utah has also covered 15 of their last 23 road contests. After watching the Kings a few times in the preseason it was very apparent how bad their defense is going to be again in 2018. We'll lay the points with Utah and predict a double digit win.

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them.  It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*.  BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game.  The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight  at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points. 

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -7 over Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET -  The Cavs are 14-5 SU at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game much like they did in Game 3 at home off a couple losses in Boston. It’s do-or-die for LBJ and the Cavs and now with Houston owning a 3-2 lead in the West there is a real opportunity to win another Ship for Cleveland if they can get by Boston. Cleveland has won five straight home playoff games by an average of 16PPG. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games of this series but found their stroke at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2% this season. In Games 3 & 4 of this round the Cavs have shot 49% and 50%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with four losses by 11 or more points, another loss by 9 and by 2 points, and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. LeBron will get every call known to man and if he  doesn’t quit like he did in the 4th quarter of Game 5 this should be a double digit win for Cleveland. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston.  

 ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series.  Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here. 

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday. 

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close.

ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET -  The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7  less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers.  Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss.  

ASA  PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk.  Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win!

PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG.  Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG.  The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points! 

ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams  this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto.  The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1. 

PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs.  Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG.  The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points

PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors -7 over Washington Wizards, 7PM ET - The home team has won and covered all four games in the playoffs and there's no reason to think anything will change here. Off two straight losses we like the Raptors by double-digits in Game 5. Toronto was the best team in the NBA at home this season with a point differential of +10.5PPG and a 34-7 SU record.  The Raptors were perfect or 11-0 SU at home when coming off a loss, 7-4 ATS. On the flip side, the Wizards were not great on the road all season long and in this situation we don't expect them to suddenly be something they are not. Washington had the 19th worst road point differential (-2.4PPG) in the NBA during the regular season which is also the worst among all the playoff teams. The Wizards had the 10th worst FG percentage defense in the league this year allowing 46.3% away from home. Toronto was 11th in the NBA in shooting percentage at home at 47.2% and shot over 51% in Games 1 and 2 on their home court.  Lay the points with Toronto in Game 5. 

PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers +6 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7Pm ET - Except for a blowout win in Game #1 by the Pacers this has been a tightly contested series that has gone down to the wire in three straight games. Has the Cavs defense been great in the post season or has Indiana's offense been bad? The Pacers are getting uncontested shots in this series, but just not making them. Indiana is 13th out  of 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage shooting, and if those numbers trend back to normal, the Cavs are in big trouble. It's well documented Cleveland's defense was one of the worst during the regular season so it's not like they've fixed that end of the court in the playoffs. Cleveland had an average point differential at home of just +1.1PPG during the regular season which ranked 18th in the entire league. The only other playoff team that had a worst home differential was Milwaukee. Indiana had the 11th best road differential of -.2PPG and are clearly confident they can win on this court after their blowout win in Game 1. If Victor Oladipo can find his shooting touch in these last few games the Pacers win this series. Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – We used the Celtics in Game 1 of this series and laid 4-points so why wouldn't we lay a smaller number here. Don't write the Celtics off just because they lost two games in Milwaukee. The Bucks shot extremely well at home which was surprising considering they were up against the number two ranked defensive field goal percentage unit. In Game 3 of this series the Bucks shot over 52% from the field and barely held on to beat Boston by 2. The Bucks defense was horrendous down the stretch of regular this season and hasn't been much better in this series. Milwaukee was 19th on the year in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.101 points per possession and in the post season they rank 11th, out of 16, in that same statistical category. The Celtics have the best DEFF in the NBA and own a huge edge on that end of the court. Milwaukee was 19-22 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.9PPG. The Bucks are just 19-27 SU against current playoff teams with a lost margin of -3.5PPG. Boston has an average winning margin at home this season of +4 and are 19-9 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. Milwaukee won't continue to shoot as well as they have in the previous two games and the C's get a big home win here. 

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets -6 @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:00PM ET – Houston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and we like them off a loss (12-6 SU) here. The one glaring stat we see from Game 3 is how well the Wolves shot the 3-ball. Minny was 15 of 27 from beyond the arc which was VERY uncharacteristic as they are a 35.9% (19th) shooting team on the season.  In Games #1 and #1 they hit just 27.8% and 34.8%. Not to mention the Rockets were the 6th best team in the NBA this season at defending the 3 (allowed just 35.2%). It's highly unlikely they shoot it as well in this game as they did in Game 3. The Rockers were favored in Minny this year by 7-points and -3.5-points in the two regular season meetings here so don’t be intimidated by the spread. Houston won those two regular season clashes by 18 and 9 points. The Rockets had the best point differential in the NBA on the season at +8.4PPG overall and on the road at +7.5PPG. What’s most amazing about this team is there 34-10 SU record against other playoff teams with a differential of +7.3PPG. The Wolves average home differential of +5.7PPG on the season (8th best in NBA) is decent, but those numbers are inflated against the bad teams. When it comes to playing other playoff teams the Wolves are just 20-25 SU overall with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The Wolves allow foes to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts on their home court which is the 3rd worst number in the NBA and bad news facing the Rockets. 

ASA PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers -1 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - For those of you thinking the Cavs are going to turn it on in the playoffs I think you're sadly mistaken. We even mentioned this in our future bets that they might not advance past this opening series. When you dissect all the number the Cavaliers have average key statistics and as great as LeBron can be, he's still indirectly part of the Cavs problem.  LBJ doesn't hold his teammates or himself accountable on the defensive end of the floor (29th defensive efficiency this year) and they've become impervious to the real problem. The GOAT, Michael Jordan, would never let his teammates only play on one end of the court. Even with LeBron's greatness in Game #2, 17 of 24 shooting from the field, 10 of 13 from the stripe, the Cavs barely held on to beat Indiana. That was a "must win" game at home, down 0-1 in the series! The Pacers best offensive weapon, Victor Oladipo was also in foul trouble early on and finished with a modest 22-points after scoring 32 in the opener. Cleveland made some adjustments from Game 1 to Game 2 which put LeBron in a favorable situation on the offensive end of the court but now you can expect Indiana's Nate McMillan to make changes for Game 3. Cleveland was just 5-7 SU on the road against Eastern Conference playoff teams this season. Indiana has covered 5 in a row when coming off a loss and have already beaten the Cavs twice this season on this court. No intimidation here! Take Indiana.

PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – Casual bettors are backing OKC after their Game 1 win but let’s not ignore the whole body of work leading up to this playoff series. Since the All-Star break there haven’t been many teams better in the NBA than Utah. They’ve gone 18-7 since the break, allowing just 96PPG while scoring 106PPG. The Jazz have the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the 7th in FG percentage defense (45%) but they allowed OKC to shoot over 48% in Game 1. Utah also had the best fast break D in the league this year by allowing just 9.7PPG in transition. OKC more than doubled that number with 22 points on the break. The Thunder played very well in the opener and still only won by 8-points in Game 1. Let’s not forget the Jazz ended the regular season on a 15-2 SU run their last 17 road games. Utah was the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA this season so look for them to slow the tempo to a crawl which will make the points a premium. The bet here is UTAH AND THE POINTS!

PLAY ON: Portland Trailblazers (-6) over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:35PM ET - This clearly is a do-or-die situation for the Blazers at home down 0-1 in the series. Lose this game and you've wasted 82-regular season games. On the other hand, New Orleans is a little 'fat' off that upset win in Game 1. Portland had an off shooting night in G1 by hitting just 38% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc, which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 45% and 37% comparatively. The Blazers had less turnovers and more rebounds but just didn't make shots. These same two teams met in New Orleans in late March with the Blazers winning by 4-points as a 2-point road favorite. Prior to this home loss, the Blazers had gone 12-2 SU at home their last 14 and 7 of those wins came against other playoff teams. New Orleans has been a very good road team this year with some positive differentials but this just isn't a good situation for them. The Pelicans closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins that look good on paper (won at GST, LAC and beat the Spurs) but given the circumstances it's not as impressive as it looks. The Warriors had nothing to play for, the Clippers were eliminated and San Antonio was resting. Prior to that stretch the Pelicans were just 3-5 SU their last eight away from home against playoff teams. There is only one way to bet this game and it's on Portland.

ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat +6.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8M ET - We like the veteran Heat and the points over the upstart Sixers in this matchup. Yes, we know Philly closed the season on a red hot run but the playoffs are a whole different beast. This series was 2-2 during the regular season with the 76ers winning at home by just 2 and 6 points respectively. The Sixers were 52-30 SU this season but only 20-23 SU against other playoff teams with a point differential of just .2PPG. That's hardly a big enough margin to get a cover in this game. Miami was 17-23 SU this year against other playoff teams, but 14-10 against the top 8 teams from the East. The Heat had a positive differential of +1.7PPG against the rest of the contenders from the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia closed the regular season on a 16 game winning streak which has forced this line to be inflated higher than it should be. Especially considering 13 of those sixteen wins came against non-playoff teams.  Philly was just 11-10 ATS when laying more than 7-points this season and are now in the unfamiliar role as a large home chalk in a rare playoff appearance. Miami has a few key edges on the floor in the opener with center Whiteside in the middle and no Joel Embiid on the floor for Philly. Whiteside averaged 19PPG in his three meetings with the 76ers this season and D-Wade dialed back the clock in one of the meetings with 27. We like the veteran leadership the Heat have here and won't be surprised if they start this series up 1-0.

ASA PLAY ON: Washington Wizards +8 over Toronto Raptors, 5:35PM ET - Washington has a roster that could come out of the East and we wouldn't be 'shocked' if they won this series. Great guard play is key to post season success and with two dynamic players like John Wall and Bradley Beal the Wizards are dangerous. The four regular season games were all relatively close with each team winning twice (once on the opponents court) with the largest margin being 11-points. In the two meetings on this court the Raptors were favored by -6.5 points twice and are now laying more than that here? Toronto had some really 'pretty' overall statistics on the season but they were very misleading as they ran it up against the bad teams but struggled versus the good. On the season the Raptors were 59-23 SU but just 23-18 against playoff teams with a point differential of +4.6PPG. The Wizard are 14-13 SU against Eastern Conference playoff teams with a negative differential of just .1PPG. On the year, Washington's road point differential was -2PPG. Toronto had a home differential of +10.4PPG but again, those numbers were inflated against the worst teams. The Wiz have solid spread record against teams with winning records on the road, while Toronto has a losing spread record at home versus above .500 teams. Washington has covered 6 of their last eight here. Grab the points!

ASA PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs (+4.5) over New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET - With so much on the line for playoff seeding we like the veteran Spurs to get a much needed win here. The Pelicans have made a late season run to qualify for the post season but let's take a closer look. New Orleans beat the Clippers after they were eliminated, a Warriors team that quit playing, Phoenix and Memphis. Prior to that they had lost four straight games against playoff teams (Thunder, Cavs, Blazers and Rockets). The Spurs have done a balancing act between rest and competing down the stretch which has produced a 4-2 SU record their last six. Three of those four wins came against Portland, Houston and OKC. New Orleans has a 23-17 SU record at home this year but their average point differential is under 1PPG. San Antonio has a losing road record this season at 14-26 SU but their average loss margin is just -1.1PPG which would clearly get us a cover here. The Pelicans have a 9-17 SU record this year against the top 8 teams in the West with a negative efficiency differential. The Spurs have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA when they play on the road and we love defensive underdogs. San Antonio would slip to the 8th seed with a loss and despite what Pop and the players say they would love to avoid the Warriors and Rockets in the first round. 

ASA PLAY ON Utah Jazz -7.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9M ET - This is an interesting game that has seeding implications in the West.  The Jazz can keep their hopes alive for the #3 seed in the West with a win tonight. Utah trails the Blazers by a game for that coveted spot and they meet tomorrow night in the season finale, but they must win tonight. Golden State has other motivations for tonight and that might be to NOT win this game. If the Warriors were to win this game they could end up bumping the Jazz down a few spots in the standing to the 7th seed . Then they'd have to face this DANGEROUS Utah team in the first round and nobody in the West wants this Jazz team right now with how they are playing. The Warriors have had numerous injuries and added rest heading into the post season is a priority. The Jazz are 29-5 SU their last 34 games and have done it with a defensive efficiency rating that is best in the NBA since the All-Star break. It's not like Utah will be intimidated here as they've beaten the Warriors in the last two meetings by 30 and 19 points respectively. The number set by Vegas is clearly higher than it should be as they try to entice Warrior backers. We won't fall for it. Lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) over Miami Heat, 7:35PM ET - At first look the 'value' in the number here seems very attractive with the home underdog but late in the season 'value' becomes less important in particular situations. This is one of those rare cases you can't be tempted by the home underdog given the circumstances. A desperate Thunder takes on a Heat team that has struggled to a 14-15 record since Feb. 1, playing below-.500 basketball for two-plus months. Miami's recent stretch has seen them go 3-2 SU but their three wins came against lottery bound Chicago and Atlanta twice. Oklahoma City is 14-9 SU their last 23 games and it's come against a brutal schedule. All 9 of the Thunder's losses have come against playoff teams. OKC has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +1PPG and are coming off a confidence building win over Houston. The Thunder need to win to get in and can still grab home court in the first round of the playoffs. Granted Miami is a playoff team but they really don't have anything to play for. In fact, the Heat might be better off with a loss here as it would move them to the 7th seed in the East which would mean a first round matchup with the injury depleted Celtics. In their most recent game the Heat gave extended minutes to everyone and seem more intent on staying healthy than winning right now. With Memphis on deck they'll get their morale-boosting win in their next game. Miami home differential of +2.5PPG is barely above league average. The Thunder have beaten the Heat four straight times all by 6 or more points. Take the team with incentive here! 

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:35PM ET - Let's start with the fact that the Warriors don't really have a lot to play for other than finishing higher than the Raptors in the East if Toronto would make the Finals. In reality I doubt the Warriors are thinking that but they will be focused here after a horrible showing in Indiana in their last game. Coach Kerr blasted them after the game so we should get great effort here. Golden State is 17-4 SU off a loss this season, 8-3 at home. New Orleans is in a tough scheduling spot as they are playing their 2nd night of a back to back and their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have struggled against good competition with a 18-23 SU record and negative efficiency differential. Golden State on the other hand is 25-14 SU against other playoff teams with a huge efficiency differential. Even with a 'down' season by the Warriors recent standards, they have a plus +8-point home differential that is 3rd best in the NBA. Golden State has beaten this team by 8, 15 and 10 points in the three meetings this season. GST has covered 4 of the last five in the series on this court. We will lay the points with the Warriors here. 

ASA PLAY  ON: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a HUGE game for both teams and we like the home court advantage with Denver. The Nuggets are 29-10 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Minnesota is 16-23 SU away from home on the year and their point differential is minus -1.7PPG, league average. On the season the Nugs are 15-8 SU against +.500 teams at home while Minny is 10-15 SU on the road against +.500 clubs. Most recently the Wolves are 1-8 SU their last nine road contests against current playoff teams with an average loss margin of 10PPG. Denver has won 5 straight at home with the most recent two games being 3-point wins each against current Playoff teams. Expect a wider margin tonight for the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Detroit Pistons +3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Detroit Pistons have zero wiggle-room right now as a loss eliminates them from the playoffs but they've vowed to make Milwaukee earn it.  Detroit has played some of their best basketball down the stretch by winning 5 straight and 7 of their last eight (8-0 ATS).  The Pistons are 6-1 SU since point guard Reggie Jackson (right ankle sprain) returned from injury and their record is 25-15 SU with him in the lineup. On the year the Pistons have a plus +3.7 point home differential and are 8-6 SU at home against Eastern Conference Playoff teams this season. Philadelphia is on a red hot 11 game winning streak but only two of those wins were against +.500 teams and both were at home with Joel Embiid in the lineup. The Sixers are just 9-16 SU against the top 8 teams in the East and 2-11 SU away in that situation. Philly is playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back while the Pistons have been off since Sunday. The 76ers are just 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS when playing without rest and they have a much bigger game on deck Friday against the Cavs who are ahead of them in the standings. Take Detroit!

ASA’s PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -4 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – These two teams are both playing for the post season but have various levels of urgency. The Bucks are in already and could move up to 7th or even 6th with some help from Miami and Washington. Denver though is fighting for their playoff lives as they are 2 games out of the post season which makes this game dramatically more important for them.  The Nuggets have been fantastic at home this year with a 27-10 SU record and a point differential of +6.2PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bucks on the other hand are 18-20 SU away from home with a negative point differential of -1.1PPG. Denver’s last three home wins have all come by 7 or more points and in this do-or-die situation we expect a win by that margin or more. The Bucks are coming off a pair of road wins and playing their 4th straight away from home in a 6-day span. The Nuggets have owned the Bucks here covering 14 of the last eight meetings in Denver. We also like the value here considering the Nuggets were recently favored by -8.5 points against the Pistons. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Michigan -5 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET

We are very confident that this is where Loyola’s Cinderella run comes to an end.  They have been very solid, but also very fortunate to get to this spot.  The Ramblers first 3 wins in the tourney came by a combined 4 points with 2 wins coming at the buzzer.  They have shot ridiculously well to get to this point making 52.5% of their shots in the tourney.  Even with that, 3 of their games came down to the final possession.  Even in their most recent win over KSU, they shot 57% overall and 50% from three while the Wildcats couldn’t hit the broadside making only 34% of their shots and 24% from deep.  KSU also was forced to play without their leading scorer and rebounder Dean Wade who played some in their previous game but was unable to go vs Loyola.  With that 16-point win, the Ramblers still have just a +20 point differential in this tourney (Michigan is +46).  Now they face a Michigan defense that has been absolutely fantastic.  The Wolverines rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and they’ve held 11 of their last 12 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession which is ridiculously good.  By comparison, Loyola’s defense is also solid but they’ve allowed 3 of their 4 opponents in the NCAA tourney alone to reach at least 1.00 point per possession.  If Loyola can’t make a high percentage of their shots as they’ve done the entire tourney, they are in trouble here.  That’s because they simply don’t take many shots.  They’ve attempted just 198 shots this tourney (only 49.5 shots per game) and they’ve attempted 30 fewer shots than their opponents.  Thus you better shoot awfully well or get to the line A LOT to make up for that deficiency.  We don’t see them doing either here as the Wolverines also foul as little as any team in the tourney.  On the other end of the court, Michigan can shoot the ball every bit as well as Loyola.  They have scorers and shooters at every position as well as many that come off the bench.  The Wolverines don’t turn the ball over (4th nationally in lowest turnover percentage) while Loyola has coughed it up 15 & 16 times their last 2 games and ranks 218th nationally in that category.  Michigan should also have the rebounding edge in this game.  Those two factors, along with a few things we discussed earlier in this analysis, should keep Loyola at a hefty deficit in shots attempted.  The Wolverines have now won 13 straight games all vs solid to top notch competition (NCAA tourney & Big Ten) and only 2 of those 13 have come by less than 6 points (current line here is -5 or -5.5).  Those were games vs Houston and FSU – and the Wolverines led by 10 late in the FSU game when the Noles hit a couple of crazy 3’s to make it closer than it should have been (58-54 final).  Only three 11-seeds have made the Final Four and all of them have seen their seasons come to an end at that point.  LSU lost by 11 in 1986, George Mason lost by 15 in 2006, and VCU was upended by 8 in 2011.  Loyola has had a great run but we see a similar fate here.  Take MICHIGAN to win this by double digits.

ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans (+4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We won't hesitate to take the points and the Pelicans here as the Cavs continue to have the worst spread record in the NBA. On the season the Cavs are just 27-47-1 ATS, 10-25-1 ATS at home. I literally laugh out loud when I hear the talking heads proclaim the Cavs are playing great right and poised to make a run in the Playoffs. It couldn't be further from the truth and it Cleveland ends up with a first round series with Washington they not make it out of the opening series. The Cavs have won 7 of their last ten games but only 2 of those wins came against Playoff bound teams and both were at home. On the season the Cavs are just 17-20 SU versus current playoff teams, 4-11 SU against the top 8 teams from the West. The Cavaliers efficiency differentials in those 15 games is horrendous. Cleveland's defense is the problem as they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, only the Suns are worse. The Pelicans are in desperation mode here as they only lead the 9th place Clippers by 2 games in the Western Conf playoff race. New Orleans is 23-14 ATS on the road this season and have been rock solid against the best teams in the East with a 10-5 SU record versus the top 8 teams. The Pelicans road point differential  at plus .4PPG is nearly as good as Cleveland's home differential of +.8. Easy call here to take NO plus the points. 

ASA PLAY ON: Detroit Pistons (-1) over Washington Wizards, 7PM ET - The Wizards are a solid playoff team currently 6th in the East while the Pistons are barely alive mathematically, 9th. If the playoffs were to begin today the Wizards would face the Cavaliers in the first round but a few losses could move them to the 7th seed and a date with the injury riddled Celtics. Based on their last game, it looks like Washington is more concerned with their health heading into the post season as no starter played more than 28 minutes, and five bench players got 20+ minutes. There aren't many teams in the NBA that are playing better than Detroit right now as they have the 3rd best efficiency differential in the league in their last five games. In that five game stretch they had an impressive 2pt overtime loss in Houston, who is going to win the NBA Championship this season. The Pistons are 23-14 SU at home this season with the 12th best point differential in the NBA at +3.4PPG. Detroit is a solid 12-4 SU at home off a win this year while Washington is 11-11 SU on the road off a win. We expect the Pistons to continue their current hot streak and get this home win. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas -3 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET on ESPNU

We were on UNT on Monday night as they came into that game @ USF playing their best basketball of the season.  They lost that game by 10 and now it’s do or die time for the Mean Green.  They now get to play host to USF and a loss would end their season.  A North Texas win would send this to a deciding game 3 on Friday night.  UNT had cruised through this tourney leading up to Monday night’s game destroying 3 straight opponents (South Dakota, Mercer, and Jacksonville State) scoring 90 or more points in each game.  What was even more impressive is that they were underdogs in 2 of the games and favored by just 1 point in the other one.  On Monday night they simply shot very poorly (39%) and made only 4 three pointers the entire game.  San Francisco took a whopping 33 three point attempts on Monday and made 14 of them.  That was the difference in the game.  The Dons have relied heavily on the 3 pointer all season long with 37% of their points coming from beyond the arc (53rd most nationally).  That makes it tough here in an arena they’ve never played in and facing a UNT defense that ranks 15th nationally at defending the arc allowing just 31.7% shooting.  SF was able to capitalize on their outside shooting at home but we feel that will be their demise here vs a fired up Green defense.  The Dons are not a great 3 point shooting team to begin with and on the road they are poor from deep hitting only 32% of their shots from behind the line.  Speaking of road games, USF has yet to play away from home in this tourney so they’ve had a definite advantage.  This will actually be their first true road game in over a month!  San Fran finished just 4-7 in true road games this season and all of their road wins came against teams that were at least 4 games below .500 or worse.  In fact, their 4 road wins came against teams that ended the season with a combined 41-86 record.  We expect UNT to play very well at home in this must win spot and take care of business vs San Francisco.

ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Clippers -3.5 over Milwaukee, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET

The Clippers are coming off a momentum building win in Toronto and are back home to face a Bucks team they also beat on their recent road trip. The Clippers are 2.5 games out of the Western Conference playoffs right now and in full desperation mode with just 9 games to play. The Bucks have more wiggle room in the East right now, as they are in 7th spot and lead the 9th place Pistons by 6 games. These two teams met in Milwaukee a week ago with the Clippers prevailing 127-120. The glaring difference in that contest is the +14 rebounding margin by L.A. That will be a key factor again tonight as the Bucks have one of the worst rebounding differential margins in the NBA. The Bucks are just 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven road games against teams with winning records. The Clippers don't have a fantastic overall home record at 20-15 but they are 9-1 SU their last ten at home against the Eastern Conference. Easy call here with the home team minus the short number. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Toronto -8.5 over Denver, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET

The situation clearly favors Toronto here as: 1) They catch the Nuggets off a game last night and are rested themselves. 2) Denver's leading scorer Gary Harris is out. 3) Toronto is coming off a RARE home loss to the Clippers in their previous game. If we look inside the numbers we find that Denver is just 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back, which gets magnified without their best player. Toronto off a loss have been fantastic with a 15-4 SU overall record, 8-0 SU at home. When the Raptors are playing at home off a home loss they are 4-0 and those four wins came by an average of 20PPG. Toronto has the best home court point differential in the NBA at +10.3PPG with a 30-7 SU record. Denver has not been a great road team all season long with a 13-24 SU road record and a minus point differential of -3.7PPG. The Raptors are still playing for something as they want the second best overall record in the NBA in case they would meet Golden State in the Finals they would have home court advantage. This one won't be close, lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON 8* Western Kentucky -1 over Utah, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Hilltoppers definitely had the toughest route to Madison Square Garden having had to beat 3 Power 5 teams (BC, USC, and Oklahoma State) with 2 coming on the road.  Their final 2 wins @ USC and @ OSU were extremely impressive as those were two teams that many thought should have been in the NCAA tourney.  USC finished by themselves in 2nd place in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona and beat Utah (WKY’s opponent tonight) handily both times they faced off by 16 and 17 points.  Then, even more impressive, the Hilltoppers had to travel from LA to Oklahoma and play @ OSU just 45 hours after they upset USC.  They not only beat a very good Oklahoma State team, they did so fairly easily leading basically the entire way and winning by 8.  The Cowboys largest and only lead of the game was 7-6 just a few minutes into the game.  Other than that, WKY led throughout.  Many may look at this match up and simply assume that Utah has played a much tougher schedule getting them ready for this situation.  That is not the case.  These two have played a very similar SOS and Western Kentucky has beaten 12 teams this year that had at least 20 wins on the season.  That includes a win over Purdue earlier in the season to go along with their recent 3 game run in the NIT.  They also played Villanova to the wire losing by 8, lost a tight game @ Ohio who won the MAC and beat Arizona in the NCAA, and lost @ Wisconsin by 1 point.  The Pac 12 has shown to be very weak this year as they didn’t win a single game in the NCAA tourney (Arizona, UCLA, and Arizona State all lost in the opening round) and all but Utah exited the NIT fairly quickly.  The Utes rely heavily on the 3 point shot with 38% of their points coming from deep (36th nationally) which puts them at a disadvantage playing here at Madison Square Garden, a tough shooting venue, for the first time this season.  WKY is the opposite as they get almost 60% of their points from inside the arc (8th nationally) and not having to rely on the outside shot in this game will be key.  Western is playing with great confidence winning on the road at two very tough spots and we think that carries over here.  Take Western Kentucky in this game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas +5 over San Francisco, Monday at 10 PM ET on ESPNU

UNT is being undervalued in this one.  If you look strictly at the records, SF looks like they should be a decent favorite in this game as they are.  UNT is 18-17 on the year while San Francisco comes in with a 21-15 mark.  The Mean Green are much better than their record in our mind.  They played in a tough Conference USA that included MTSU, Marshall, and Western Kentucky who all fared well in their post-season tourneys.  Marshall won a game in the NCAA tourney beating Wichita as a double digit underdog and Western Kentucky is set to play in the NIT Final 4.  They struggled a bit early in the season with a few key injuries and they were adjusting to a brand new system under new head coach Grant McCasland.  They are clicking on all cylinders right now having scored at least 90 points in each of their 3 CBI games with wins coming by margins of 90-77 @ South Dakota, 96-67 vs Mercer, and 90-68 vs Jacksonville State.  And the Mean Green were UNDERDOGS in the first two games listed above and favored by just 1 vs Jacksonville State.  Even with that they continue to get little to no respect here.  While UNT has been breezing through their games including a road win @ a very solid South Dakota team who is power ranked 70 spots higher than San Francisco, the Dons have been squeaking by at home.  The Dons have played all 3 games in the CBI at home winning by margins of 4, 5, and 3 points (vs Colgate, Utah Valley, and Campbell).  San Fran finished the year with 6 losses at home and in the WCC they were 9-9 but struggled against the upper half of the league.  There were 4 teams besides USF that had a winning record overall this season.  Those teams were San Diego, BYU, St Mary’s, and Gonzaga and the Dons had a 1-8 record vs those teams this year.  Interestingly enough, one of those teams, San Diego, played host to UNT back in mid-December and the Mean Green won by 3.  That was at a point in the season when North Texas wasn’t playing particularly well.  On the other hand, USF lost both meetings with San Diego this year.  North Texas is extremely confident coming into this one and we feel they have a great shot to win this game.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Minnesota Timberwolves (-13.5) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - The Wolves are playing for their post-season lives while the Grizzlies are fighting for the most ping-pong balls and the #1 lottery pick in the draft. Memphis has clearly thrown in the towel which was evident in their 61 point loss to the Hornets two games ago. The Grizz are just 5-30 SU on the road this season and have the 4th largest average point differential in the league of -9.1PPG away from home. Minnesota on the other hand is in the 7th spot in the West but only 1.5 games away from being out of the playoffs. The Wolves have been solid at home this year with a 27-9 SU record, and more impressively, have a +6.4PPG point differential which is 6th best in the NBA. Minnesota is 16-2 SU off a loss this year which tells us they know how to rebound off a loss. The line on this game is higher than it should be but based on the different mindsets of each franchise we’ll lay the points. Wolves have covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Grizz on their home court. Lay it.

ASA PLAY ON: Duke -3 over Kansas, 6PM ET – We know its dangerous to lay points in the Elite 8 but it’s warranted here. Granted, the Blue Devils are off a close win against Syracuse but that was a game played in the 60’s by both teams with limited possessions. That made it much more difficult for the favorite to cover the spread. That shouldn’t be the case today as both Duke and Kansas prefer to play fast, ranking in the top 76 in terms of average possession length. Kansas is coming off a win over Clemson by 4-points, the same Tiger team Duke beat by 8 earlier this season. The Blue Devils key advantage in this match up is on the boards where they rank #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding and they’ll be going up against a Jayhawk D that is 295th in rebounding. The Dukies also have a slight advantage defensively with a top 10 defensive efficiency rating allowing just .939 points per possession. Going back to the regular season, in Duke’s last 8 wins, 7 have come by double digits. On the season the Blue Devils have an average point differential of +15PPG, Kansas is +10PPG. Duke has covered 9 of their last twelve and we like that trend to continue here. Lay it!

ASA  PLAY ON – Kansas State -1 over Loyola Chi,  6:05 PM ET -  KSU’s defense has been among the best in the nation for the entire year.  They currently rank 14th nationally in defensive efficiency and they've allowed only 180 points in the first three tourney games.  That is impressive as they held a very good shooting Creighton team (10th nationally in eFG%) to a season low 59 points on just 34% shooting.  The Cats then shut down a UMBC team to only 43 points on 29% shooting.  That’s the same UMBC team that torched Virginia, the best defense in the country, for 74 points a few nights earlier.  In their most recent game the Wildcats held the other Wildcats (Kentucky) to just 58 points which is really impressive considering KY is 24th in the country in OEFF at 1.161 points per possession.  What we're getting at is the KSU defense will be the difference in this game as they're even better than their numbers suggest. Consider this. K-State has played the 33rd toughest schedule this season and their defensive numbers are that good against other Big 12 teams  that all rank in the top 90 in offensive efficiency numbers, 3 in the top 10. Loyola has misleading defensive numbers (24th in DEFF) as 8 of the 10 teams in their conference rank 148th or worse in OEFF and they played them all twice this season. Three of those teams rank 200 or worse and their strength of schedule is 109th. The Ramblers won't stop a K-State offense that is better than their numbers indicate. The Wildcats faced a tough Big 12 schedule that includes 9 teams in the top 100 when it comes to DEFF rankings and yet still ranked 78th in OEFF. Loyola was a +1.5 point dog to Miami in the opening game of the tourney and it's the same spread today versus a Kansas State team that is better than the U. Loyola has been the media darling, and have survived three closes games, but their luck runs out here.  PLAY on Kansas State.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +2 over Purdue, Friday at 9:55 PM ET

Wrong team favored here in our opinion.  Our ratings had Purdue as a slight 1 to 2 point favorite in this match up and that was with giant Isaac Haas in the line up.  Haas is now out with a broken elbow which greatly affects the Boilers on both ends of the court.  It makes Purdue, an already heavily reliant 3 point team, even more so.  With Haas out, the Boilers have almost no inside threat.  Haarms is OK but he’s a freshman and very inconsistent and has only attempted 5 shots in the entire tourney so we can’t expect much from him.  The problem then for Purdue is that Tech is a fantastic defensive team (4th in the nation in defensive efficiency) and they also defend the arc very well.  In their 2nd round game vs a good shooting Florida team who also relies on the 3 point shot, the Red Raiders held the Gators to 6 of 22 from deep and they pressured UF on 20 of those 22 three point attempts.  That means only 2 open threes in the game for Florida.  The Boilers are already a shaky rebounding team and with Haas out of the line up that will be magnified.  Thus we have Tech with advantages defensively and on the boards.  On top of that, the Raiders (17th nationally in defensive turnover percentage) create far more turnovers than Purdue so another key advantage.  Tech struggled toward the end of the regular season however much of that was due to their top player, Keenan Evans, being injured.  He only missed one of those late losses but was hampered with his injury and limited in minutes in two others.  He’s back full strength now and they’ve won 4 of 5 with their only loss coming in the Big 12 tourney by 3 vs a red hot West Virginia team.  The return of Zach Smith for the Red Raiders is also key.  The 6’8 senior was considered TT’s 2nd best player coming into the season but missed 14 games from January 9th thru February 26th.  He’s now been back for 5 straight games, he’s healthy, and his minutes and productivity has been getting better each game.  That makes this team much better than they even were during their Big 12 regular season run where they finished tied for 2nd behind Kansas in what many consider the best league in the land.  We watch the Big 10 very closely and we saw Purdue start a declined in early February.  They went just 3-3 in their final 6 regular season games two of their three wins were tight vs PSU and Illinois.  They didn’t look great in the Big 10 tourney struggling to get by Rutgers in round one and getting ousted by Michigan in the semi finals.  Last week they shot lights out vs Butler (54% overall and 45% from 3) and still went to the wire in a 3 point win.  No way they shoot like that against this defense ranks 14th nationally in eFG% defense.  Tech’s athletic perimeter defenders will give Purdue all kinds of problems here.  On offense, Tech can score from both levels and with Haas out, that takes away Purdue’s rim protector so the Raiders will have success inside.  We think Tech is the better team right now while Purdue is a bit over valued.  Take the points here. 

ASA PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers (-3) over LA Clippers, 7PM ET - We like the home team Pacers here and don't expect this game to be close. Indiana is coming off a really poor shooting night on the road Wednesday in New Orleans, but look for that to change on their home court where they shoot 48% on the year. The Pacers have a +3.2 point differential at home on the year and have covered 5 straight home games as a favorite. Also, the Pacers have cashed in 10 of their last fourteen as a small favorite of less than -3.5 points. The LA Clippers are in a tough stretch here with just 1 win in their last five games which came in their most recent game in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Prior to that the Clippers had lost three straight road contests. Both teams have plenty to play for here as Indiana is fighting for home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Clippers are fighting just to get in. But in the end, Indiana is 24-13 SU at home and has several matchup advantages over the Clippers that should lead to a double digit win here. 

ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Obviously we are laying a premium price here but it's still the only way to bet this game. Orlando is fighting for the #1 pick in the draft while the Sixers are fighting for the 4th spot in the East which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Magic are 21-50 and just two games "behind" Memphis and Phoenix for the worst overall record in the NBA. Orlando has lost 7 of their last eight games, including two straight at home by 9 to the short-handed Celtics, and by 7 to the Raptors. Philly has won 4 straight games with three of the four coming by 8 or more points. Orlando has the 8th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -4.7PPG. Conversely, the 76ers have the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at plus +2.6PPG. In the two meetings earlier this season the 76ers won by 11 and 19. Effort will be the difference in this game and it will lead to a double digit win by the visitor. Take Philadelphia!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

This is an extremely tough spot for the Hilltoppers.  They just pulled off an upset @ USC on Monday night coming from 6 down late to pick up the 79-75 win.  It was a physically and emotionally taxing game that saw 13 lead changes.  Western shot very well making 54% of their shots and 16 of 17 FT’s in the game.  We don’t see that happening Wednesday as fatigue will definitely be a factor.  Four of the five WKY starters played 32+ minutes in the upset.  That game didn’t start until 11:30 PM ET on Monday night and didn’t end until 1:30 AM.  The Hilltoppers had to travel from California to Oklahoma and must play just 43 hours after the conclusion of their win @ USC.  Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has played both of their NIT games at home and played much earlier on Monday Night.  They didn’t play very well on Monday vs Stanford shooting just 35% from the field and making only 12 of their 23 FT attempts (they average 76% from the line as a team this year) and still won by 6 over a solid Stanford team.  The Cowboys have 3 seniors on the starting line up who felt they were playing their final home game.  That’s because if USC would have beaten WKY, the Cowboys would be traveling to California for this game.  Now they get an extra boost emotionally with another home game they were not expecting.  They should have a big home court advantage as well in this game.  Normally the NIT draws smaller crowds but the OSU fans came out in droves on Monday with 10,000 in the seats which was the largest home crowd of the season for the Cowboys.  Another large gathering is expected on Wednesday.  OSU has 15 home wins on the season including topping NCAA tourney teams Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma here at Gallagher Iba Arena.  We really like this Western Kentucky team, however this is a very bad situation for them playing the talented OSU team.  Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

PSU has huge advantages defensively and on the boards which are two keys we always emphasize when handicapping basketball.  We’re not talking about a subtle difference.  PSU ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency.   They just held a potent Notre Dame offense to just 63 points on 38% shooting in a 10 points win in South Bend.  The Irish, who rely heavily on the 3 just as Marquette does, was held to only 4 three point makes in the game.  After the game, Irish head coach Mike Brey mentioned that PSU’s length and athleticism at guard gave his shooters major problems.  That will be the same situation here.  The Golden Eagles rely as heavily on the 3 point shot as almost any team in the nation.  Their guards are small with Rowsey and Howard both standing under 6’0.  The Nittany Lions 3 guard line up features Tony Carr who is 6’5, Josh Reaves who is 6’4, and Shep Garner who is 6’2.  All 3 are very good defenders and will give the Marquette guards fits in this game.  If the Eagles can’t score from deep they are in big trouble and they have very little inside game (332nd nationally in percentage of points inside the arc).  Rebounding will also be a key as we mentioned and PSU should dominate there.  They are very good on both the offensive and defensive boards and Marquette is weak rebounding team.  That should give the Nits plenty of extra opportunities and they should thrive inside vs a Marquette defense that ranks 301st nationally and defending the 2 point shot.  The Eagles rank just 176th nationally in defensive efficiency and they’ve held only 8 opponents to under 1.00 point per possession this season.  Both teams have won 2 games to get here but PSU’s route has been much tougher beating Temple and home then winning at Notre Dame (the last team left out of the Big Dance) by 10.  Marquette has had 2 home games vs Harvard and Oregon (Pac 10 was obviously very weak this year).  One of the Eagles key scorers, Sam Hauser, injured his hip in their win over Harvard and was questionable vs Oregon.  While he did play, he was just 1 of 6 from the field and had only 5 points.  If he struggles with the injury again here, Marquette is in trouble.  PSU was the highest rated team in the Ken Pom ratings not to make the NCAA tourney (27th when the brackets were released).  We agree this team is very solid.  They also get an extra day having beat Notre Dame on Saturday while Marquette played on Sunday.  PSU is the much more complete team and we anticipate they’ll pick up a road win here.

ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Several teams can't afford to relax these days and one of them is the 76ers. Philadelphia is in a tightly contested five-way battle for the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, where just 3 1/2 games separate the current third-place Cleveland Cavaliers from the eighth-place Miami Heat. Of course the big reward is home court advantage if they can finish 4th or higher. This is clearly a bad match-up for the Hornets as they've lost to the Sixers twice this season by double-digits in both games. Charlotte is clearly a team that has cashed it in this season evidenced by their box scores where they are giving extended minutes to bench players. The Hornets have just two wins in their last nine games (3 covers) and those came against the Hawks and Suns who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Philly is coming off a close win over Brooklyn which serve as a wake-up call for tonight. The 76ers have an average home point differential of +6.3PPG this season. Charlotte allows teams to hit 48% of their field goal attempts on the road this year while Philly shoots 47% at home. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS their last nine at home versus teams with losing records and while we know we are laying a premium number here, we still feel it won't matter. Take the 76ers!

ASA PLAY ON 10* West Virginia -12.5 over Marshall, Sunday at 9:40 PM ET

We used Marshall +12 over Wichita on Friday and picked up an easy win with the Herd winning outright.  We felt that the Herd would be able to score vs a Wichita defense that was subpar.  We also felt the Shockers were over rated all season long and took advantage of that.  This is a totally different scenario.  Marshall used a ton of energy in that game just 48 hours ago and played their starters massive minutes.  Leading scorer Elmore played the full 40 minutes and 3 other starters played 35+ minutes.  They were completely gassed at the end of that game.  Now they must play a physical, pressing WVU defense on short rest.  A defense that is impossible to prepare for in a short amount of time.  We expect Marshall’s “shooting legs” to struggle here having to face constant pressure the entire game with almost no bench to rely on.  The Herd are a weak rebounding team (worst in the Dance) and we felt they’d struggle vs Wichita in that aspect and they did.  The Shockers were +14 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 41% of their misses.  That didn’t hurt Marshall as much as it could have because they were able to hit 47% of their shots.  Now with tired legs, as we mentioned, they face a WVU team that is a great rebounding team (4th nationally in offensive rebounding) and the huge rebounding edge will be magnified in this one.  We also look for Marshall’s turnover numbers to be high here as they wear down in the 2nd half in this one.  The Mountaineers won big over Murray State in their opener and were able to spread out their minutes because of that with only 1 starter logging 30 or more minutes.  This line is high but not out of whack as WVU is better than Wichita and laying pretty much the same number.  These long time in-state rivals renew their match up which stopped after the 2016 season and WVU logs an easy win here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas State -10 over UMBC, Sunday at 7:45 PM ET

The dream ends for UMBC here.  This team played WAY above their heads the other night in a win over Virginia.  The Retrievers weren’t even the best team in their conference and in fact they were rated the 3rd best team in America East this year.  They came from 9 behind late in the America East championship game to beat Vermont at the buzzer.  That was a Vermont team that beat UMBC by 15 & 18 points during the regular season.  This team caught lightning in a bottle yesterday hitting a ridiculous 54% of their shots vs UVA.  The crazy part is, UMBC isn’t even a good shooting team.  They rank barely in the top 200 in offensive efficiency and finished 5th in America East in FG%.  They very rarely get to the FT line and have all kinds of trouble scoring inside.  This team is now in situation they are obviously not used to.  They weren’t even expected to be here and now the Retrievers have been thrust into the limelight for the last 48 hours.  KSU is another one of those tough teams we really like.  The Cats will dominate this team inside and on the glass.  They are a very good defensive team that held one of the better offenses in the nation (Creighton) to just 59 points on 34% shooting on Friday in a 10 point win. We have no doubt that UMBC comes back to earth offensively and struggles to score.  On the flip side we look for KSU to play very well offensively vs a UMBC defense that ranks 227th in eFG% defense.  Let’s not overreact to one game where a team that simply isn’t very good played the absolute best they could possibly play on both ends of the court.  They played a grand total of ONE tourney team this year (before UVA) and lost by 25 vs Arizona.  KSU dominates this game and moves on to the Sweet 16.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Clemson +1.5 over Auburn, Sunday at 7:10 PM  ET

Clemson was impressive yesterday handling a very good NM State team from start to finish and led by 18 at one point in the 2nd half.  Many felt the Aggies had a great shot at the upset as the line dropped all the way to Clemson -3.5.  This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up.  They are tough minded and great defensively (9th nationally in defensive efficiency).  We trust them to play well here.  Not so much with Auburn.  They are a young team that relies very heavily on the 3 point shot.  They score very little inside the arc (341st nationally in percentage of points from 2 point range) and won’t here as Clemson is bigger and stronger inside.  On Friday vs College of Charleston, the Tigers created 21 turnovers AND took 18 more FT attempts yet still trailed with under 3:00 minutes to go!  They won by 4 (we were on C of C) but were not impressive.  They played a very weak non-conference slate and while they began the SEC in red hot manner, the Tigers were just 4-5 down the stretch.  We expect Clemson to dominate on the interior and slow this game down which is not what Auburn wants.  We like the tougher team as a dog here.  Take Clemson.

ASA PLAY ON: Florida Gators (+1.5) over Texas Tech, 8:40PM ET - Texas Tech limped into the NCAA Tourney with a 2-5 SU record and then beat Stephen F Austin in a non-covering win in the opening game on Thursday. What's significant is that TT continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers. The Red Raiders are just 5-12-1 ATS their last 18 games and have not covered 8 straight. Let's also not overlook the fact that Texas Tech was 25-9 SU this season but 17-1 at home. Florida comes into this game off a relatively easy win over St Bonaventure and have the talent to make a run in this tourney. The Gators are 40th in OEFF ratings, 20th in DEFF and don't turn the ball over at 14.1 per game, 6th best in the nation. Florida has a +4.4 point differential on the road this season with impressive victories at Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky and Alabama, all of which are Tournament teams. They also beat Gonzaga this season on a neutral court and lost to Duke by just 3-points. The Gators are under-valued here again and has covered 4 of their last five. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

Kudos to Loyola for their win in the opening round over Miami but it wasn't as big an upset as casual fans might think considering the Canes were favored by just 2 points. But now the Ramblers face a Tennessee team that is deep, talented, well coached and could make a run at the Final Four. The SEC is certainly proving a point in the Tourney thus far with a perfect 5-0 record as of this writing. The Vols have played the 6th toughest schedule in the nation and their 8 losses have all come against teams in the Big Dance. Despite playing that brutal schedule the Volunteers still rank 38th in offensive efficiency ratings and 5th in defensive efficiency. In the recent SEC tourney the Vols were favored by 3-points over Arkansas and 2-points over Kentucky so you can see for yourself the value in this line today. Loyola has put together a great season but the Missouri Valley isn't the SEC and they've faced the 132nd schedule. Other than Miami, the Ramblers haven't beaten a team ranked higher than 120th since early December. Tennessee has a huge advantage when it comes to offensive rebounding ranking 37th while Loyola ranks 331st. The efficiency differentials clearly favor the better team from the better conference. Lay the points with Tennessee.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -5.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET

Buffalo shot lights out Thursday (56% overall & 50% from deep) vs an average Arizona defense.  The Bulls made a whopping 15 three pointers vs an Arizona defense that is just 221st nationally at defending the arc.  That worked in Buffalo’s favor on Thursday as they rely heavily on the 3 point shot.  Now they face a Kentucky defense that allows opponent so shoot only 30% from deep which is 4th best nationally.  On Thursday the Cats held Davidson (12th best 3-point shooting team) to just 33% from beyond the arc.  If Buffalo can’t score from deep they are in trouble as less than 50% of their points come from inside the arc and they don’t go to the FT line very often.  They’ll have trouble getting good looks period in this game as Kentucky is very long at all positions and come in with the 22nd most efficient defense overall.  The Cats beat Davidson by 5 yesterday despite not making a 3 point shot the entire game.  They were outscored 33-0 from beyond the arc and STILL won by 5.  That tells you how much UK really dominated inside outrebounding Davidson 58 to 31!  While they won’t have that type of dominance on the boards here, they should still control the glass, especially offensively where they rebound a whopping 35% of their misses (9th nationally).  The Cats are a decent 3 point shooting team (35%) so Thursday was a bit of an aberration and we’d expect them to be more diverse here and score both inside and out.  UK also gets to the line A LOT (6th best FGA/FTA ratio in the country) and the Bulls will help them with that as they foul quite a bit (296th in defensive FGA/FTA ratio).  Buffalo will be a trendy underdog here as people watched them whip an over rated Arizona team, but let’s not forget how well this Kentucky team is playing.  They rolled through the SEC tourney and have won 8 of their last 9 games with all but one of those wins coming by double digits.  That was in the SEC Championship where the beat a very good Tennessee team by 5, but the Cats had a 17 point lead in that game so it could have been worse.  Lay it here with Kentucky.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Syracuse +5 over TCU, Friday at 9:40 PM ET

Here we have what we would consider on the fringe of being a college basketball blue blood program (Syracuse) against a TCU team on the rise but one that hasn’t been to the Dance since 1998.  On the other hand, this is old hat for the Orange as they’ve been here 14 times since 1998!  We think it’s a positive Syracuse already has a game under their belt beating UCLA while none of the TCU players have ever been here so you can expect some first game jitters.  Also, the Orange are playing their 2nd game in 3 days but the travel was very easy as they went from Dayton to Detroit (only 200 miles apart).  TCU likes playing fast but this game will be played at a slow pace and Syracuse will make sure of that (343rd in tempo).  Very similar to what the Orange did to a very fast paced Arizona State team on Wednesday in a 60-56 win so the Cuse will have that advantage.  The 3 slower paced teams in the Big 12 (KSU, Texas, & Texas Tech) gave TCU problems as the Frogs were 2-5 in games vs those teams.  The Frogs began the season on a tear winning their first 12 games of the season (7 vs teams outside the top 100) but they have won only 9 of their last 20 games.  TCU is solid offensively, however they will be facing a long zone (Cuse is the tallest team in the nation) they are not used to seeing as the vast majority of Big 12 teams play mostly man to man defense.  Defensively we have a huge edge with Syracuse as they are 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense compared to TCU who ranks 105th and 267th in those 2 categories.  We expect this one to go to the wire and getting 5 is the way to go here.  Take Syracuse.

ASA PLAY ON 8* College of Charleston +9.5 over Auburn, Friday at 7:25 PM ET

This is a veteran C of C team (61st most experienced team in the nation) that simply knows how to win.  They are 26-7 this season and over the last 2 years they are 51-17.  The Cougars come into this game having won 14 of their last 15 games with their only loss during that stretch coming in OT.  This team won’t get rattled which is something Auburn counts on to fuel easy buckets.  The Tigers are very good at creating turnovers which lead to easy buckets.  The problem is, this veteran C of C backcourt turns the ball over only 14% of the time which is 10th least in the nation.  They are dangerous offensive team that shoots well at both levels and makes nearly 77% of their FT’s.  The Cougars should get to the line in this game as Auburn fouls a lot.  The Tigers like to play a match up zone defensively and that plays into Charleston’s hands as they are one of the better zone offenses in this tourney (11th best).  We’re not sold on this Auburn team.  They began the season 21-2 but have gone 4-5 over their last 9 games.  They were destroyed by Alabama in their first game in the SEC tourney.  The Tigers love to play fast but you can bet that Charleston will slow this game to a snail’s pace (324th in tempo).  Auburn relies too heavily on the 3 points shot for us and we think this will be one of those games where the big underdog takes the favorite to the limit and has a chance to win.  Take the points here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas State +2.5 over Creighton, Friday at 6:50 PM ET

KSU was shorthanded in the Big 12 tourney with two of their key players, Brown and Wade, injured.  Wade, their 6’10 leading scorer and rebounder, injured his foot vs TCU and did not play vs Kansas in the Big 12 tourney.  Brown, their 2nd leading scorer and top assist man, injured his eye very early on in the Kansas game and was not able to return.  That was last Friday so they’ve both had a full week to recover and they are expected to play without limitations in this game.  They also were able to have success on the road which is key.  The Cats were 7-6 away from home this year (road/neutral) including true road wins over NCAA tourney teams Baylor, Texas, and should have been tourney team Oklahoma State.  Creighton is a team that was sitting pretty in the Big East with a 4-1 record in mid January.  Then they lost starting forward Martin Krampelj (12 PPG) for the season to an injury and they haven’t been quite the same since.  After his injury, the Jays have lost 7 of their final 13 games with many of their wins going to the wire.  Throw out their win over Bemidji State, and Creighton only has 1 win since January 17th that came by more than 8 points.  They are fairly soft defensively (7th in the Big East in defensive efficiency) and were just 4-10 away from home (road/neutral).  The Cats are a tough physical team that takes on the personality of their coach Bruce Weber.   Creighton is more of a finesse team and we’ll take the tougher team all day long here, especially as an underdog.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Butler -1.5 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:10 PM ET

This is a very good match up for Butler.  The solid shooting Bulldogs should have a field day against a porous Arkansas defense (104th nationally in defensive efficiency).  During the regular season, the Razorbacks were the 12th rated defense in the SEC ahead of only Ole Miss and Vandy who had the two worst records in conference play.  In the SEC semi-finals, a decent but not great Tennessee offense put up 1.40 points per possession on this team.  So big edge for Butler on the defensive end as they rank 49th in defensive efficiency and were the 3rd best defense in the Big East during the regular season.  Offensively these teams are very close in shooting percentage and efficiency so we’ll call that end of the court a draw.  Where Butler has a big edge on offense is at the FT line where they hit 77% of their freebies compared to just 67% for the Razors.  We expect that to be a huge factor here as Butler should get to the line a lot as Arkansas sends teams to the FT line at a high rate.   On top of that, the Arkansas offense is fueled by creating turnovers on the defensive end and Butler has a veteran backcourt that turns the ball over only 15% of the time which is 28th fewest in the country.  The venue in Detroit definitely favors the Bulldogs as well as they should have a much larger contingent of fans as many made the 4 hour trip by car.  Defense and free throws will be the key here as Butler wins and covers this small number.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State +14 over Cincinnati, Friday at 2:00 PM ET

We expect a low scoring, slow paced game here (the total is set at 130 currently) which will make it very tough for the Bearcats to cover this big number.  Cincinnati is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (323rd in adjusted tempo) while GSU doesn’t like to play fast either (235th in adjusted tempo).  This isn’t a great match up for Cincy’s offense.  They are not a very good outside shooting team (132nd nationally in 3 point shooting percentage) and they are facing a defense they don’t see very often.  GSU plays a funky 1-3-1 zone and the Bearcats come in as the 10th least efficient offense in this tourney when facing a zone defense.  On the flip side, Cincinnati’s defense is obviously very good as well, and they also play a zone much of the time (extended match up zone).  However GSU is a very good outside shooting team (29th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they are the 5th most efficient offense in this tourney when facing a zone defense.  Both teams played Sunday and won their respective conference tourneys with Cincy going to the wire beating Houston by 1 while Georgia State blew out a very talented and senior laden Texas Arlington team.  The Panthers will struggle on the boards here but we feel they can make enough 3’s (29th nationally in 3 point FG%) to keep this one fairly close.  While the venue in Nashville does favor the Bearcats, it’s definitely not an inconvenience for GSU as Atlanta is only a 3+ hour drive.  The Panthers are a top 100 team and would be rated as the 5th best team in the AAC so this is no pushover.  Cincy was favored by less this season vs comparable AAC teams (SMU & Temple) so the value is definitely with GSU here.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Marshall +12.5 over Wichita State, Friday at 1:30 PM ET

Wichita is vastly overrated as a 4 seed in our opinion.  We had them rated as the 3rd best team in the AAC this year (behind Cincy & Houston) and this team probably should be a 6 seed.  The Shockers had just a 2-3 record against those top 2 AAC teams and weren’t playing particularly well down the stretch in our mind.  Their last double digit win was over a month ago and that includes a number of games against weak AAC competition.  This team is way down defensively from previous seasons (110th in defensive efficiency) and we feel this very good shooting Marshall team cans stay in this game to the end.  The Herd have a number of guys that can shoot the 3 but they also shoot in very well inside the arc (15th nationally in 2 point shooting percentage) and they make over 76% of their FT’s.  This is a very dangerous team with a player, Jon Elmore (27 points in the CUSA Final), that can carry a team.  Marshall won the CUSA tourney beating a very good Western Kentucky team in the finals.  Winning that conference is looking better as they may have been underrated based on what is happening in the other post-season tournaments.  WKY blew out a very solid Boston College team in the NIT, MTSU won by 30 in their NIT game, and North Texas just went on the road and beat South Dakota 90-77 as a 13 point underdog!  Marshall took Xavier to the wire on the road this year and beat the highest rated team in CUSA (MTSU) both times they met.  This game will be much closer than this number.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2 over Providence, Friday at 12:15 PM ET

Providence is a popular underdog here getting nearly 70% of the bets in this game.  That’s normally not a good thing.  People like to bet favorites and when a dog is getting a high percentage of bets, the numbers don’t speak well for that team.  In fact, since 2005, underdogs on the first weekend of the NCAA tourney receiving more than 50% of the bets have cashed in only 40% of the time.  The Friars are one of the highest bet dogs on Friday but we like the other side.  A&M has better numbers throughout the season and we don’t think it’s a great match up for Providence.  Both have played a very tough schedule to the numbers are accurate.  Neither team is overly efficient offensively with A&M holding a slight edge.  Defensively, the Aggies are far superior ranking 12th nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  They are the much better rebounding team as well.  The Friars defend the 3 well but are not very good at defending close to the basket.  That plays right into A&M’s game as they don’t shoot a ton of 3’s but they are big inside and like to score in the paint.  Providence scores at a high rate from the FT line, however A&M doesn’t foul much.  The Aggies also defense both levels (inside and outside the arc) very well and they defend the rim with a high number of blocked shots.  The lone downside here is Texas A&M is not a great FT shooting team but we don’t expect that to hurt them here as we don’t look for either team to shoot a ton of FT’s in this game.  The Friars made a physical and emotional run to the Big East Finals playing 3 OT games in their tourney.  A&M has been off since last Thursday after losing by 1 point at the buzzer to Bama.  We like the Aggies at this low number.

ASA PLAY ON 8* SF Austin +11.5 over Texas Tech, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET

SFA is a program that knows how to win and is very dangerous here as a double digit underdog.  The Lumberjacks have a record of 273-86 over the last 11 years which is an average of 25 wins per year.  They are used to this setting having made the Big Dance in 3 of the last 4 seasons and they haven’t been simply happy to be there as they have 2 wins over West Virginia and VCU.  Playing in the Southland Conference SFA obviously doesn’t get a chance to play many Power 5 teams and to be honest they have trouble scheduling games vs those schools who really want nothing to do with them because of their success.  The Lumberjacks did get a chance to play 3 Power 5 schools on the road this year and fared quite well winning @ LSU while losing by 1 point @ Mizzou and by 5 points @ Mississippi State.  Their pressure defense causes problems for opposing teams as SFA turns opponents over on a whopping 26% of their possessions (1st in the nation).  Tech isn’t great a protecting the ball (158th with a 18% turnover rate) and they are fairly thin at the ball handling spot when Keenan Evans needs a break.  WVU plays very similarly on defense to SFA and Tech was 1-2 vs the Mountaineers with their lone win being a come from behind 1 point win at home.  The Red Raiders were in a spot at one point in the season to win the Big 12 but they didn’t play well down the stretch losing 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 wins coming by 4 points each.  This game is in Dallas which is only 160 miles from SFA’s campus (350 miles to Lubbock).  We think Tech gets a scare here before they move on.  SFA covers this double digit number.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Seton Hall -2.5 over NC State, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET

We feel that Seton Hall is a bit under seeded at 8 and NC State should be lower than a 9.  The Hall is a very experienced team with 4 key seniors who have been through the Big East and NCAA wars together.  They’ve been to the Dance each of the last 2 seasons but were bounced in the first round by Gonzaga two years ago and Arkansas last year.  One of their goals this year was to get back to the NCAA and win a game and this is their final chance as a group that has been very successful (83 wins in their 4 years) but still has some unfinished business.  The Pirates started to hit their stride late in the season winning 4 of their last 5 regular season games including road wins @ Providence by 12 and @ St Johns who was playing very well late (Johnnies beat Duke & Nova late in the season).  The Hall also played their final 3 games without leading scorer and senior leader Rodriguez (18 PPG) but he is back and ready heading into the Dance.  NC State thrives on creating turnovers in their full court press, however we don’t see that bothering the veteran guards for the Pirates.  Once SH breaks the press, they love to score in the paint and that is a true weakness for the Wolfpack as they rank 297th at defending inside the arc.  When they do miss, Seton Hall rebounds 34% of misses which is 29th nationally while NC State is 307th nationally in defensive rebounding.  That should give the Pirates some extra opportunities at the rim to score.  Both offenses are similar (24th and 26th nationally in offensive efficiency) but the Hall has a big edge defensively.  We’ve watched both of these teams a lot this year and simply feel that Seton Hall is the tougher team and we like them in this game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +2 over Rhode Island, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET

Many of the national pundits are up in arms about Oklahoma making the tourney as they struggled down the stretch in what turned out to be the toughest conference in America this year, the Big 12.  However, what about Rhode Island coming in as a 7 seed?  This is a team that struggled down the stretch, played in a much weaker conference, AND was rated 49th nationally by Ken Pom (which is 12 seed range) which is lower than Oklahoma yet they received an at large and a 7 seed?  And now the Rams are favored?  You can bet with all of the talk about why they should not have received a bid, the Sooners will be very motivated to prove people wrong here.  Let’s not forget this team was a top 5 team earlier in the season and beat the likes of Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Wichita State this season.  Should they have been rated as a top 5 team?  Obviously not but they aren’t as bad as the pundits are making them out to be.  Yes they struggled on the road in Big 12 play but who wouldn’t vs that schedule?  Big 12 home teams were 62-30 on the year and only ONE team in the conference was .500 or above away from home in league play (Kansas).  Let’s also not forget this OU team was favored @ Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State, @ Alabama and small road dogs @ WVU, @ TCU, @ Texas, and @ Baylor.  And now they are a dog on a neutral court to Rhode Island?  The Rams aren’t playing well right now.  They lost 3 of their last 5 regular season games, struggled to get by VCU and St Joes in the A10 tourney before getting bounced by Davidson.  This is a tough scheduling spot as well for URI playing on Sunday and now an early start on Thursday.  We agree that OU looked a bit tired late in the season but they now have had more than a full week off to re-energize.  They also have the best player on the court in Trae Young which is always a bonus, especially as an underdog.  The Sooners will be motivated, have played the much tougher schedule, and are in a better situational spot.  Take the points with Oklahoma here.

ASA PLAY ON 8* UC Davis +12.5 over Utah, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

We think there is some solid value taking UC Davis as a double digit underdog here.  UCD won the Big West regular season title with a 12-4 record but were ousted in the conference tourney by CS Fullerton who made the Big Dance.  UCD had that game under control leading by 13 in the 2nd half before they went cold scoring only 6 points in the final 10:00 minutes and lost by 3.  That was last Friday so they’ve had some time to recoup and the Aggies are excited to be playing a Power 5 team in round one of the NIT.  This is a solid Davis team that went 22-10 this year and that was coming off a season where they made the NCAA, beat NC Central in a play in game before losing to Kansas.  This year they played 2 Pac 12 opponents on the road beating Washington State by 14 and losing to Washington by 7.  They are a top 100 team in defensive efficiency, a solid 3 point shooting team, and they turn teams over at a rate of 22% (11th in the country).  They also proved they can play well away from home with a 9-6 record in road games including beating both 2nd place teams (UCSB & UC Irvine) on the road.  After making the NCAA tourney in 2015 & 2016, the Utes failed to make it to the field of 64 last year and lost in the opening round of the NIT to Boise State.  Utah had higher aspirations this year and have to be a bit discouraged they are again in the NIT.  They needed to win at least 1 Pac 12 tourney game to possibly move close to the NCAA bubble but lost by 2 to an Oregon team that won the night before in OT vs Washington State.  The Utes lost 3 conference home games this year and we feel they are overvalued here.  In fact, we rate both Cal and Washington State well below UC Davis and Utah was favored by 12.5 and 10.5 in those games.  The closest team in the Pac 12 ratings wise to UC Davis is Colorado and the Utes were just favored at home by 9 vs the Buffaloes.  Value is on UC Davis and we think they keep this one fairly close.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 over Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Okie State is still in recovery mode after learning they did not make the NCAA tourney just 48 hours ago.  The Cowboys felt they deserved to be in the Dance and playing with emotion in tonight’s game in front of what we heard will be a sparse crowd will be very tough.  OSU head coach Mike Boynton summed up his team’s feelings after being left out of the Dance.  "It's really, really hard when you set some goals and you feel like you're getting so close to achieving those goals and some of it you obviously don't do as well in controlling and then a decision comes that you just fell short," Boynton said Monday morning.  While FGCU, who was the best team in the Atlantic Sun winning the regular season by 2 full games, was also disappointed in the outcome of the tourney as they lost in the Championship, they’ve had more time to recover.  That loss occurred on March 4th so they’ve had 9 days to rest up, recover from the disappointment and get ready for the NIT.  They are excited to have an opportunity to play a Power 5 team in round one.  This is a very solid program having just won 20+ games for the 6th straight season.  The Eagles made the NCAA last year and gave Florida State all they could handle in round one losing by 6.  They can shoot the ball very well (21st nationally in eFG%) and they are a solid rebounding team  which makes them a dangerous underdog.  We like FGCU to hang around in this one and give OSU all they can handle.  Take the points.    

ASA PLAY ON 10* Boston College +5 over Western Kentucky, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET

We think this is a very tough spot for Western Kentucky.  They were seconds away from the NCAA tournament just 72 hours ago in Texas and now they have to refocus and play a game that they may not be all the excited to be in.  Their CUSA Championship game Saturday night was a big disappointment as they were favored by -5.5 vs Marshall but lost by 1 point.  WKY trailed by 12 with 3:30 remaining and rallied late and had a chance to win.  It was a Marshall team they had beaten twice during the regular season so you know the Hilltopper players were confident they were going to the Big Dance.  BC, on the other hand, will be excited to be here.  They haven’t been in any post-season tourney since 2011 and after finishing 7-11 in the ACC they knew they weren’t going dancing unless they won the ACC tournament which was not realistic.  The Eagles played very well in the ACC tourney beating Georgia Tech by 10, then topping NCAA bound NC State before losing on Thursday to Clemson by 8.  BC has now had 5 full days off to rest and get ready for this one which gives them the advantage.  Not to mention, they have the best player on the floor in Jerome Robinson (ACC first team) and possibly the 2nd best player on the floor in point guard Ky Bowman.  The Eagles have obviously played the much tougher schedule and they have beaten the likes of Duke, NC State, Florida State, Syracuse, and Miami FL.  Meanwhile WKY played only 4 teams all season long that made it into the tourney and lost both games to Middle Tennessee State, the only team in CUSA that could come close to making a case for an at large bid.  Too many points here as BC should have a great shot to win this game outright.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington +2 over Georgia State, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET

As most of you know we’ve followed this UTA team very close all year and been very successful on or against them, including our College Game of the Year winner just a few weeks ago against this very Georgia State team.  The Mavs are the most veteran team in the Sun Belt and one of the most veteran teams in the entire nation with 5 seniors in the starting line up.  After winning the league last year with a 14-4 record but losing in the conference tourney, they had one goal coming into this season.  Make it to the Big Dance.  They didn’t win the regular season title and seemed disinterested at times despite their talent.  That’s not the case now as they are on the door step to attaining their one goal this year and have been playing very well.  Yesterday they beat UL Lafayette who won the Sun Belt by a full 4 games with a 16-2 record.  UTA lost both regular season meetings to ULL by double digits and then beat them yesterday which tells you how good this team can be when focused.  They split their two meetings this year with Georgia State winning by 8 at home and losing by 6 on the road.  A few quick take aways from those two meetings.  Ga State relies heavily on the 3 and took 60 attempts from beyond the arc in the two meetings.  That doesn’t bode well today as UTA defends the 3 pretty well (109th nationally) and with this being their 3rd game in 3 days, Georgia State’s “shooting legs” may not be up to par.  Also the Panthers are one of the thinnest teams in the nation ranking 342nd in bench minutes so 3 games in 3 days will be more taxing on this team than many others.  Another key takeaway was that UTA absolutely dominated the boards at +26 in their two meetings.  That won’t change here.  The Mavs also get to the FT line more often on the season and they were +12 in FT attempts vs Ga State.  If those 3 things hold true again today, which we believe they will, we have no doubt Arlington will win this game and move on to the Big Dance.     

ASA PLAY ON 8* Western Kentucky -5.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

The WKU Hilltoppers have been one of the better teams in the conference all season long and have played a schedule that is 100 spots tougher than Marshall. In fact, Western has 11 wins this season over teams ranked in the top 150 by Kenpom while the Herd have just 4. WKU has 10 wins this season against programs with at least 20 victories: Old Dominion (3 times), UAB (2), Marshall (2), Purdue (1), Wright State (1) and Nicholls (1). WKU ranks in the top 10 in the country in field goal percentage and is first in Conference USA at 49.8 percent. WKU is tied with Villanova for the national lead with 11 games shooting 55 percent or better this season. Conversely, the Herd are ranked 291st in 2pt FG percentage at 45.5%. That also ties into the fact that the Hilltoppers have outscored their opponents 1,318-955 in the paint this season. That's significant here considering Marshall is not great defensively and allow foes to hit 44.7% of their FG attempts which is 196th in the nation. WKU beat Marshall twice this season and it's clear they have a matchup advantage that the Herd can't overcome. In the two meetings, Marshall shot just 40% in both while WKU shot 48% in one meeting and 62% in the other. The other glaring difference was the Hilltoppers rebounding advantage of +12 and +19 in the two meetings. When it comes to tournaments we like put more stock into what teams road statistics are. WKU has a +2.9 point differential away from home this year, while Marshall is minus -1.6PPG. Again, that's with Western playing a much tougher schedule. Western Kentucky by double-digits here!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -6.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET

Buffalo has been the best team in the MAC from beginning to end this season and we expect them to roll to an easy win and head to the Big Dance.  Both are playing their 3rd game in 3 days, however Buffalo has been able to spread their minutes out with two easy wins.  On the flip side, Toledo comes into this one having won by 2 on Thursday and by 1 yesterday and their starters logged big minutes in both.  Speaking of starters, Toledo’s top player, Treshaun Fletcher (18 PPG), injured his knee 20 seconds into last night’s game and was unable to return.  He also tweaked that same knee the night before vs Miami OH so it’s an obvious problem.  He’s listed as questionable today and if he doesn’t play the Rockets are in huge trouble.  Even if he does play there’s no way he can be 100% if he couldn’t even come back in a do or die tight game last night.  Both of these offenses are very good ranking 1 and 2 in the MAC in offensive efficiency.  However, the Bulls have a big edge on defense ranking 2nd in the MAC in defensive efficiency to 8th for Toledo.  Buffalo is also better on the board and they turn the ball over less.  These two met once this year and Toledo shot 54% overall and 50% from 3 point range and STILL lost by 10.  Toledo’s Fletcher scored 27 points in that game and was 10 of 14 from the field and they still lost by 10.  If he can’t go today it’s over.  Even if he can, we still like Buffalo to win this one easily.

ASA PLAY ON 8* San Diego State -4 over New Mexico, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

SDSU is one of the hottest teams in the country.  They have won 8 straight by an average margin of 14 PPG.  We were on them on Thursday as they rolled over a very solid Fresno team.  Yesterday they played the best team in the MWC, Nevada, and won 90-73 but it wasn’t nearly that close.  The Aztecs actually led 55-25 at half, were outscored by 13 in the 2nd half and still won by 17!  So the Aztecs have beaten the best team in the MWC and the 4th ranked team in the MWC with ease coming into today’s game.  New Mexico has had the much easier route to get here beating Wyoming (7th rated team in the league) and Utah State (8th rated team in the league).  We were on the Lobos yesterday as they were in a great spot playing a Utah State team playing their 3rd straight game and their guards had logged big minutes.  That was going to be a problem against NM’s press and we anticipated tired legs for USU and we were correct.  This is a completely different situation.  San Diego State is very good at not turning the ball over (2nd in the MWC) and they were able to spread their minutes out with 2 easy wins coming into this one.  These are two of the better offenses in the league (2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency) but SDSU has a huge edge defensively (4th in defensive efficiency to 11th for New Mexico).  The Aztecs are peaking on the defensive end as well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession.  On the other hand, New Mexico has allowed 7 of their last 9 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession and the two games they didn’t were both against Utah State.  These two met once this year and SDSU was a 4 point favorite @ New Mexico so this line favors the Aztecs in our opinion.  SDSU lost that road game by 4 giving them a little more motivation here.  We like San Diego State to win & cover and move on to the NCAA tourney.

ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -3.5 over Utah State, Friday at 11:30 PM ET

Tough spot and tough match up for Utah State in this game.  The Aggies are playing their 3rd game in 3 days which included a come from behind win and upset of Boise yesterday.  Their top 2 players McEwen and Merrill played 78 and 75 minutes respectively.  They can’t afford to be gassed here as they are the two responsible for breaking New Mexico’s full court pressure.  That’s where USU will have problems in this game.  The Lobos force more turnovers than any other team in the MWC while Utah State turns the ball over almost 19% of the time which is 206th nationally.  In their 2nd meeting this year, when New Mexico was healthy and at full strength, the Lobos won by 15 and USU turned the ball over on a whopping 33% of their possessions.  The Aggies did win the first meeting 89-80 at home, however New Mexico, who is one of the deepest teams in the nation, was banged up and played only 6 players in the game.  By comparison, when the Lobos are healthy, as they are now, they played an 8 or 9 man regular rotation.  In yesterday’s 10 point win over Wyoming, the Lobos had 8 players play double digit minutes.  New Mexico is fresh and they are easily the best shooting team in the MWC ranking #1 in eFG%, 2-point FG%, 3-point FG%, and FT%.  They shouldn’t have any problem tonight vs a shaky USU defense (8th in the conference in defensive efficiency) that will be extra fatigued.  Look for New Mexico’s pressure to really take control in the 2nd half and the Lobos to pull away.

ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -2.5 over Oregon, Friday at 11:30 PM ET

USC is playing very well as of late and they are in the much better spot here.  The Trojans handled Oregon State relatively easily yesterday (13 point win) and were able to get their bearings in their first game in a new venue (T Mobile Arena in Vegas).  They come into this game having won 5 of their last 6 with their only loss coming to arch rival UCLA.  They have also proven they can get it done away from home going 10-6 this year in road/neutral site games (12-4 ATS in those games).  They have beaten the Ducks twice already this year and they catch Oregon in a terrible situation.  The Ducks will be playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and they weren’t able to “relax” in either of their first two games as they come from 11 down in the 2nd half to beat Washington State in OT on Wednesday and then again came from 11 down in the 2nd half to nip Utah 68-66 last night.  Their top 4 players have played 76, 75, 68, and 69 minutes in those two games   Those were two physically and emotionally taxing games in which Oregon was playing from behind for the vast majority of each.  That could leave very little in the tank for the Ducks tonight.  USC has the better offense (3rd most efficient in Pac 12 to Oregon’s 4th), the much better defense (2nd most efficient to 9th for Oregon), the outrebounded the Ducks in their two meetings (+8), and had fewer turnovers.  Those advantages will only be magnified tonight by Oregon’s tired legs so we’ll lay this small number.

ASA PLAYON 8* Texas Tech +2.5 over West Virginia, Friday at 9:30 PM ET

We feel the wrong team is favored here and the value is absolutely on Texas Tech.  At worst this should be a pick-em type game and we’re getting more than a bucket.  The key to beating WVU is handling their press and keeping them off the offensive glass.  In their two meetings Tech handled the pressure well with just 13 turnovers in each game and that includes their game @ WVU where the Raiders played without their top player Keenan Evans who is a key cog in breaking the press.  Tech also played that second game in WVU without starting forward Justin Gray so they were down 2 starters in that 10 point loss.  Tech is also 2nd in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding and did a decent job holding the Mountaineers in check on the boards.  The Red Raider actually were +8 on the boards in the two meetings combined.  Also Texas Tech should have a decent advantage at the FT line in this one.  The are #1 in the Big 12 in FTA/FGA and over 22% of their points come from the line.  WVU fouls more than any team in the conference and nearly 25% of opponents points come from the strip when playing the Mountaineers.  They had 53 FT attempts in their two meetings combined and we don’t see that changing here.  Our feeling on West Virginia is this, if you haven’t seen their press, it can be tough to deal with.  However, this will be the 3rd time TT has faced them this year giving the Raiders the advantage in our opinion.  Also getting points with the best defense in the Big 12 (Tech #1 in defensive efficiency) is a bonus.  Take Tech and the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -5.5 over Appalachian State, Friday at 3:00 PM ET

We’ve used UTA a number of times this year with very solid success.  They are a very talented team, possibly the most talented in the Sun Belt, that simply underachieved during the regular season.  They won the Sun Belt title last year going 14-4 in league play and returned nearly all of the key contributors.  They were the favorites to win the conference again this year yet disappointed with a 10-8 record.  When motivated this team can be very good and they will be just that here.  With 5 senior starters they are set to make a run toward the NCAA tourney after falling short of their goal last year losing to Texas State in the semifinals.  The Mavs have hit their stride winning 6 of their last 8 games including a 12 point win over this App State team on February 1st.  That was a game in which UTA lost one of their best players (Kaelon Wilson) to injury just 4 minutes into the game.  He has since come back and played very well leading the Mavericks to 3 straight wins to close out the season.  App State was 9-9 in Sun Belt play but did their damage against the bottom half of the league.  Against the top 5 teams in the league (ULL, Georgia State, UTA, Georgia Southern, and Troy) the Mountaineers were just 2-5 with both wins coming at home.  UTA, on the other hand, has beaten every team in the conference not name ULL at least once.  We’re getting line value here with the underrated Mavs as they were favored by 10 at home vs App State and favored by 4.5 on the road.  Arlington takes care of business here and gets the easy win.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan -6 over Akron, Thursday at 9 PM ET

This is a great spot to play on EMU and fade the Zips of Akron. Eastern is rested, playing well while Akron is off a rare road upset win. The Zips have one really good player in Daniel Utomi who's averaging  16.8 points per game. Utomi poured in 26 points in their opening round upset win over WMU but will have a much tougher time here against an outstanding EMU defense. EMU has way more depth with three players scoring in double figures led by 3rd team All-MAC Elijah Minnie at 16.8 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting from the floor. 1st team All-MAC selection James Thompson IV follows with 15.3 points per game. Paul Jackson rounds out the double-digit scoring, averaging 14.9. In other words, Eastern can get it done from several different guys while Akron relies on one. The Eagles are 5th in the MAC in offensive efficiency ratings while Akron is 10th. On the defensive end of the floor the Eagles have a MASSIVE advantage over the Zips with the #1 ranked DEFF unit in the MAC allowing just .994 points per possession. On the flip side, Akron is 2nd to last in the MAC allowing 1.115PPP. Defensively, EMU limits opponents to 67.2 points a night on 40.7 percent shooting from the field and 35.1 percent from downtown. Akron is the 277th ranked total D in the nation, 301st in EFG% D allowing 54.2%. Eastern comes into this game having won 6 straight games and 9 of eleven. In their last five games the Eagles have some impressive numbers including: +10PPG scoring differential, shooting nearly 52% and allowing just 41.5%. Akron has just 2 road wins all season long with a negative scoring differential of -10.5PPG while shooting under 44% as a team and allowing nearly 50%. Akron knocked off EMU last year  in the tourney so expect payback here. Eagles by 10+.

ASA PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) over Brooklyn Nets, Thurs 7PM  ET - The scheduling clearly favors the home team here as Brooklyn is playing their 5th straight road game, three of which were just on the West Coast with the most recent coming against the Warriors. Now just 2 days later they are back on the East Coast to face the Hornets. Charlotte meanwhile is off 4 straight losses after winning five straight. The Hornets recent losing streak though comes against a few of the best teams in the East (76ers twice, Celtics and Raptors) which the Nets are not. Charlotte sits 6 games out of the 8th and final spot in the East and have to make a run starting tonight to have a shot at the post season. Brooklyn on the other hand is in the ‘tankathon’ with the rest of the bottom-feeders in the East as they jockey for the best Lottery position. Charlotte has beaten three similar teams to the Nets at home (prior to the loss to the Sixers) by 15, 16 and 15 over this same Nets team. The Hornets are 5-2 SU their last seven at home and the two losses came to Philly and Toronto. Brooklyn has the 8th worst average road point differential of minus 6PPG. Charlotte is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a home loss. Those four wins came by an average of 11PPG. Lay the points with the home team here!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over UNLV, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET

We think Nevada is in a great spot in their MWC opener today.  We get by far the best team in the league coming off a loss @ San Diego State to end the season.  It was just their 6th loss of the season and they have fared quite well coming off a setback.  They did lost back to back games in early December vs Big 12 powers TCU and Texas Tech (one in OT and the other by 4 points) but beyond that, after their losses the Wolfpack bounced back for wins by margins of 25, 15, 15, and 10 points.  Before losing to a red hot San Diego State team to close out the regular season, this Nevada team played UNLV right here at the Thomas & Mack Center.  That was just one week ago.  The final score of that one was Nevada 101-75 and the Wolfpack led by as many as 33 points in the 2nd half of that game.  While one might say that UNLV will be more than ready here after that beat down just 8 days ago, we don’t think they are playing well enough or have the horses to keep this one tight.  Plus their home court advantage has been anything but an advantage this year as the Rebels lost 5 home games in conference play alone.  The Rebels held on for dear life yesterday beating 9th place Air Force in overtime.  All 5 starters played 31+ minutes in that game just 24 hours ago and they basically played a 6 man rotation with only one other player getting to double digit minutes.  Vegas hit over 49% of their shots in that game and were +13 points at the FT line yet still had to hold on in overtime vs a lower tier MWC team.  Coming into that game, UNLV had lost 5 straight to close out the regular season with 4 of those coming by double digits.  They looked like a tired team to us and yesterday’s situation won’t help.  Nevada is rested and has all the motivation in the world to win this tourney.  They are a great shooting team ranking 8th nationally in offensive efficiency and 12th in 3 point percentage.  They face a UNLV defense that has been below average this year ranking 9th in the MWC in defensive efficiency and 9th in 3 point defense.  Air Force hit 13 of 27 from deep yesterday and the Falcons came in ranking 295th nationally in 3 point shooting so that does not bode well for this Rebel defense this afternoon.  Nevada averaged 90 PPG in their 2 meetings with UNLV this year and we expect them to roll up a big win here.

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3) over Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET - If you haven’t figured LeBron out yet then we’ll give you the abbreviated version. When motivated he can be absolutely incredible. One of the best athletes to ever play in the NBA along with Shag and Wilt. The downside is that he lacks the mental fortitude to ever be considered the GOAT and lacks the killer instinct the true greats had. But for our wager today we expect to have an engaged LeBron which is a good thing. The Cavs just lost at home to the Nuggets where LBJ scored 25 points, grabbed 10 boards and dished out 15 assists. Denver shot a ridiculous 19 of 35 from deep or 54% from beyond the arc which was drastically better than their 36.6% on the season. Since the monster trade the Cavs have been better defensively so expect a concentrated effort on that end of the floor this evening. Cleveland is 15-15 SU on the road this year and one of only 9 teams in the NBA with a positive road point differential. Denver just 4-8 ATS this season when playing without rest, 1-4 SU/ATS when playing without rest at home dating back to 2015. Cavs on 80% or 8-2 spread run as a road dog this season. Take Cleveland here.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon State -2 over Washington, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

This will be a curious line to most.  Why is OSU favored by 2 on a neutral court over Washington?  OSU is 15-15 and finished 7-11 in the Pac 12 while the Huskies are 20-11 overall and 10-8 in league play.  Many will look at that alone and side with Washington but we like Oregon State here and feel they are definitely the better team.  Washington is a young team that wasn’t expected to do much at all this season.  They won 10 of their 13 non-conference games with most wins coming against fairly weak competition.  They then began the Pac 12 slate winning 7 of their first 10 games.  However, teams have figured them out and they also look like they’ve hit a wall losing 5 of their last 8 games.  Their lone wins down the stretch came at home vs Colorado who has been terrible on the road, at home vs this Oregon State team by 2 points, and @ Cal, the worst team in the Pac 12.  Their 2 point in home win over OSU was bolstered by their 23 makes at the FT line (just 12 made FT’s for OSU).   The Beavers, on the other hand, are playing quite well down the stretch.  Their final 4 games included an OT loss to Pac 12 champ Arizona, a win over Arizona State, a 2 point loss @ Washington, and a destruction of Washington State on the road.  They have been shooting the ball very well hitting over 50% of their attempts over the last 5 games.  They face a Washington defense that looks good on paper ranking 3rd in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense, however teams seemed to have figured them out their zone defense the 2nd time around with opponents hitting 47% of their shots the last 10 games.  OSU definitely has them figured out making 56% of their shots in the two meetings combined.  It’s definitely a funky line and a young Washington team has some extra pressure as this has been tabbed a “must win” if they want to stay alive for a potential NCAA bid.  Most likely they’d have to win at least a couple of games in this tourney.  We agree with the oddsmakers here and expect Oregon State to win and cover here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UTEP +3 over UTSA, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET

The Conference USA tourney this year is played at a new venue called the Ford Center at the Star in Frisco, TX.  It’s a Jerry Jones/Dallas Cowboys project and houses a full football field.  It is not a basketball venue and CUSA will attempt a new concept with 2 games being played at once.  Similar to an AAU event where multiple games are going in the same venue.  We’ve been told the sight lines and back drop are not ideal for shooting which, in our opinion, will not favor UTSA here.  That’s because the Roadrunners get more points from beyond the arc than any other team in CUSA (41%).  Relying heavily on outside shooting will most likely be a problem in this event.  On top of that, UTSA lost their best player and one of their top shooters, Jhivvan Jackson, to a season ending knee injury on February 24th.  They have played just 2 games without Jackson, one an 18 point loss @ UNT and another a win over Rice, the second worst team in CUSA who had a 7-24 record and didn’t even qualify for the conference post-season tourney.  We think UTSA will struggle at this venue, especially without Jackson running the point.  UTEP was expecting to be one of the better teams in the conference this season.  It didn’t go as planned with head coach Tim Floyd resigning during the season which obviously caused some major distractions.  However, the Miners rallied under interim coach Phil Johnson winning 4 of their last 6 games including a season finale win @ North Texas.  We feel this team is better than their record and they have obviously not quit on the season.  They should have confidence here as they took UTSA to the wire in both games losing each by just 4 points.  Their game @ UTSA came down to the final possession.  That was when UTSA was at full strength.  This one sets up for UTEP to pull the upset.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville +1 over Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET

These two split this year with each winning on the road by 4 points.  In the 3rd meeting we have to side with the much better defense and that is Louisville.  The Cards rank 17th nationally in defensive efficiency and 13th nationally in eFG% defense.  That is in comparison to FSU which ranks 13th in the ACC – not nationally – in defensive efficiency and 10th in the ACC in eFG% defense.  The Noles also rank dead last in the conference at defending the arc which should give the Cards a nice advantage from the perimeter as they have the 3rd best 3 point shooting percentage in the ACC.  On the flip side FSU is a poor 3 point shooting team (13th in the ACC) so they must get their points inside.  That plays right into Louisville’s defensive strength as they protect rim very well (8.3% block shot rate – 2nd in the ACC) and allow opponents to shoot only 44% from inside the arc (13th nationally).  FSU is normally a solid shooting team inside the arc hitting almost 55% of their shots.  However, in their two games vs Louisville the Seminoles made only 42% and 44% inside the arc.  If Louisville can keep the rebounds fairly even, which they will focus heavily on here, we like them to walk away with a win. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over South Dakota State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

South Dakota State won the Summit League with a 13-1 record and South Dakota was 2nd with an 11-3 mark.  We, however, think South Dakota is the better team and like them to get the win here.  Why is the 2nd place team favored over the 1st place team?  The oddsmakers agree with us.  These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court.  The results, however, definitely favored South Dakota.  The Coyotes rolled over SDSU in the first meeting winning by 19.  In the rematch @ South Dakota State they almost pulled the upset losing by just 4 in a game and the Coyotes led that one with under 5:00 remaining.  In that game, with SDSU as the host, it was basically dead even stat wise, SDSU just made a few more FT’s.  The Coyotes shot 47% in the 2 games combined compared to 42% for the Jackrabbits.  South Dakota hit 42% of their 3 point attempts to just 36% for the Jackrabbits.  The rebounding was close to a wash with each home team controlling the boards.  The point differential in the 2 games was +15 in favor of South Dakota and that was despite the fact they attempted 10 fewer FT’s.  South Dakota was the top defensive team in the Summit all season long leading the league in PPG allowed, defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and opponent turnover rate.  The key to beating SDSU is slowing down their primary offensive weapon, big man Mike Daum (24 PPG).  South Dakota is one of the few teams in the league that can do that as their big man Tyler Hagedorn matches up very well with Daum.  In their two games he held Daum to 43% shooting and 18 PPG which are below his season averages.  The best player on the court in both games was South Dakota’s guard Matt Mooney who racked up 63 points on over 50% shooting in the two match ups.  Nothing changes here as SDSU is unable to contain Mooney and the Coyotes move on to the NCAA tourney.

ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over St Marys, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2

We like the points here as St Marys was struggling a bit down the stretch losing 2 of their final 5 regular season games and then had problems yesterday with Pepperdine winning by just 3.  That’s a Pepperdine team that finished dead last in the WCC with an overall record of 6-26 and St Marys largest lead of the entire game was only 4 points.  The Gaels exerted plenty of physical and mental energy coming from 15 down and holding on in a game they where they were favored by 15.5 points.  All 5 of the Gael’s starters played 32+ minutes and head coach Randy Bennett basically went with a 6 man rotation.  BYU was hoping for this match up.  That’s because in last year’s semi final game St Mary’s embarrassed the Cougs winning 81-50.  BYU played the Gaels tough in both match ups this year losing the first game in OT and the second meeting by 13, however the game was much closer than that for most of the way.  They match up well with STM as the Cougars defend the 3 well and they don’t send teams to the FT line very often which keeps the Gaels and their 77% FT shooting from racking up free points.  BYU shoots well enough to keep up here and they don’t allow extra possession ranking #1 in the WCC in defensive rebounding.  With St Marys struggling a bit and BYU extra motivated and capable, we think this game goes to the wire tonight.  Take the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Wright State -3.5 over UW Milwaukee, Monday at 9:30 PM ET

There are times we take the revenge angle into account and times we don’t.  Sometimes we feel is just doesn’t matter.  In this game, we think it does.  Why?  Because the better team, Wright State, lost both games to UWM and it wasn’t a poor match up issue in our opinion.  The Raiders finished 14-4 in the league which was good for 2nd place and 2 of their 4 losses came at the hands of the Panthers.  It was simply a matter of UWM shooting very well and Wright State shooting poorly.  What makes us think this game will be different is a look at the season long stats.  Milwaukee is not a great offensive team (9th in the Horizon in offensive efficiency) and a poor 3 point shooting team (207th nationally).  They are facing a Wright State defense that is very solid ranking 2nd in the Horizon in defensive efficiency and 54th nationally.  Yet in their 2 games vs Wright State, UWM shot 52% overall and a ridiculous 54% from beyond the arc.  We don’t expect them to come anywhere close to those numbers tonight as you can expect the Raider defense to play with a chip on their shoulder after those 2 performances.  In their most recent meeting, a 74-73 UWM win @ Wright State, the Panthers shot 59% from the field (41% for the Raiders) and hit 54% from deep (35% for Wright) yet only won by a single point.  The Raiders should get more shots in this game as they outrebounded UWM in both and had fewer turnovers in both.  Over the 2 games Wright took 22 more shots so look for them to get more opportunities again tonight.  The difference will be the shooting percentages which will push much closer to the norm giving Wright State a win and cover tonight.  Both played yesterday with UWM going to the wire with Illinois Chicago while WSU rolled to an easy win over UWGB and was able to spread out the minutes.  Wright is in a good spot here and we’ll grab them at this low number.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over UW Milwaukee, Sunday at 5:00 PM ET

We love the match up here as Illinois Chicago comes into this game playing extremely well and the line doesn’t reflect it. The Flames won 9 of their last 12 games and are coming off back to back home losses but that was against Northern Kentucky and Wright State, the two best teams in the conference. Their last three losses have come by just 21 total points too so it’s not like they got blown out. Illinois Chicago has a clear match up advantage over UWM as they beat them handily twice this season by 18 in Milwaukee and 15 at home. Ill Chi has the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the Horizon at 1.061 points per possession while UWM is 9th at 1.011PPP. Defensively they are near identical allowing 1.012PPP and 1.013PPP.  This game is at a neutral site and Illinois Chicago has won 7 straight road games while the Panthers are 2-5 SU their last seven away from home. UIC has 12 conference wins this season which has come by an average of 11.2PPG. Take the Flames here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Greensboro or the Spartans carried the nation’s 7th ranked scoring defense into their last game against the Citadel and they lived up to the ranking, holding the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense to 25 points under their season average. UNCG allows just .952 points per possession which is best in the conference and 41st overall in the nation. Wofford on the other hand isn’t nearly as good defensively allowing 1.061 points per possession which is 231st in the nation. Wofford has been up and down in the second half of the season by going just 6-6 SU their last twelve games and are coming off a big revenge win over Mercer yesterday. Greensboro has been the best and most consistent team in the SoCon this year with wins in 14 of their last sixteen games. In those 14 wins, all but one has come by double-digits, so we’re not intimidated by the spread on this game today. Greensboro beat Wofford by 4 early in the season at home then won by 10 at Wofford just a few weeks ago. Take the best team, with the best defense and lay the short number with Greensboro who is 10-4 ATS their last 14 games.

ASA PLAY ON 8* William & Mary +1 over Towson, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  W&M played well to end the regular season winning 2 of their last 3.  That’s not a huge sample obviously but who they played in those games and how they played against them made us sit up and take notice.  The Tribe beat conference champ College of Charleston to end the season and went to Northeastern, who had a 14-4 record in CAA play which was the same as CofC, and lost by 2.  W&M led their game @ Northeastern late and couldn’t hold on.  Towson closed the CAA season winning just 3 of their final 9 games.  Their 3 wins were all close coming by 2, 2, and 4 points and all were against teams that finished tied for last in the CAA (Delaware (twice) and Drexel).  We also like the double revenge factor here as Towson topped W&M twice, including once in overtime.  Those games were way back in January and we these are 2 different teams right now with W&M getting better, while Towson is not.  W&M is a great shooting team and we are not overstating that fact.  This team ranks 2nd nationally in eFG% with only Villanova ranking higher.  They are also the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the nation and THE BEST free throw shooting team hitting 81% of their freebies.  They are facing a Towson team that allowed their last 5 opponents to shoot 49% and has a tendency to foul quite a bit.  That’s a bad recipe here for the Tigers and we like William & Mary to get the win in this game.