Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both.  We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play).  ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us.  We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73.  We’re back on Arizona State here.  We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State.  They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton.  It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good.  If not, they tend to play down to their competition.  ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah.  In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs.  They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line.  Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game).  That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP.  That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win.  It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it.  The Devils will be ready here.  Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12.  Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon.  Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above).  Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona.  It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona.  This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten.  The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12.  The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON IPFW +3.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

We might see UNO come out a bit flat here.  They just won a huge home game on Thursday night beating 1st place South Dakota State by 1 point.  It was a game they trailed by 16 in the 2nd half and made a furious rally for the win.  Omaha trailed for most of the game but scored with 1 second left for the 85-84 win.  It’s going to be tough for the Mavs to come back again just 2 days later and play at their peak vs a team they already beat this year.  These two met just a few weeks ago and IPFW was a -3.5 point favorite at home.  IPFW led by 17 with 12:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew the lead and lost at home in overtime.  The Mastodons have been a solid road team this year winning 4 of their 6 Summit League road games.  They sit at 9-3 overall in conference play, just a half game behind Saturday’s opponent Nebraska Omaha who is in 2nd place at 9-2.  These two offenses are nearly dead even ranking 1st (Omaha) and 2nd (IPFW) in Summit League play.  However, Fort Wayne has the edge defensively ranking better than UNO in most of the key categories.  The underdog is 11-1 ATS in this series and we like IPFW to pull off the upset here.  Take the points.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -3 over Florida, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

We’ve been successful using Alabama at home getting ATS wins vs Ole Miss & Mississippi State.  We also faded the Tide on Tuesday of this week when they traveled to Mississippi State and picked up an easy win.  That’s a perfect 3-0 ATS for us this year when we play on or against Alabama.  We expect another win on Saturday as we take the Crimson Tide at home.  They’ve been very good at Coleman Coliseum picking up home wins vs 3 of the top 5 teams on in the SEC (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss).  The other two teams rated in the top 5 (Tennessee & LSU) have not yet played @ Bama.  Their only home loss in SEC play was vs A&M by 1-point on a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer by the Aggies.  We like this spot for the Tide back at home after a loss.  They shoot very well here and are averaging 80 PPG on their home court.  That’s a tough situation for a Florida team that struggles offensively, especially on the road.  In their 7 true road games, the Gators are averaging only 60 PPG while shooting a terrible 37%.  They’ve only topped 62 points one time this year on the road in SEC play.  They have won only one SEC road game and that was vs a Georgia team that is the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference.  Three of the Gators five conference wins have come vs the bottom 3 teams in the league (Georgia, Vandy, and A&M).  They are the worst in the conference at getting points inside the arc, yet they aren’t a great 3-point shooting team (33% in SEC games – 9th in the league).  They also rarely get to the FT line.  You can see why this team struggles to score.  They won’t get many extra chances either as Alabama is the much better rebounding team ranking 5th in the SEC compared to Florida who is dead last.  The Gators come in off a win over the worst team in the conference (Vandy) now facing a Bama team that is 4-1 SU following a conference loss this season.  Alabama has already beaten 3 teams at home that are better than Florida and we see no reason they don’t win this one.  Take the Crimson Tide

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON UW Green Bay -4.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

This game has a number of solid situations in favor of Green Bay.  First Detroit is playing their 4th consecutive road game in just 10 days.  After getting blown out at Northern Kentucky and at Wright State, the Titans were able to pull off a small upset on Thursday night beating UW Milwaukee by 6.  The Panthers actually outplayed Detroit making 10 more field goals and outrebounding the Titans.  So how did Detroit pull off the win?  The foul disparity was ridicuously lopsided with Detroit making 31 FTs to just 7 for the home team.  You don’t often see a home team get “reverse homered” by the refs like that.  Good thing for Detroit as despite being +24 at the FT line the game vs UWM still went to the wire.  Don’t expect Detroit to get that benefit on Saturday.  That win pushed the Titans road record to 4-11 on the season with 3 of those wins coming against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Horizon League (Cleveland St, Youngstown St, and Milwaukee).  This team is simply not used to success away from home going just 9-36 SU their last 45 road games.  In their 15 road games Detroit is averaging 67 PPG (way down from their home average of 79 PPG) and shooting only 39%.  That won’t keep up here vs a UWGB team that averages 85 PPG at home having scored at least 90 points in 7 of their 11 at home (9-2 home record).  The Phoenix have been waiting patiently for this rematch.  They went to Detroit earlier in the season in a pick-em game and the Titans dominated 101-82 making over 53% of their shots.  It was by far the most points GB has given up in conference play this year and they were embarrassed by their effort on that end of the court.  They played very well defensively on Thursday holding a high scoring Oakland team (75 PPG average) to just 54 points in the 12-point Green Bay win.  We expect that to carry over here and we’re positive they’ll be very focused defensively and remember, Detroit has been poor offensively on the road this year.  Speaking of poor, when the Titans lose on the road, it’s not close as all 11 of their road losses have come by double digits.  Green Bay gets a big win on Saturday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now.  We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga.  They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley).  San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few.  So why are they just 5-5 in league play?  Injuries.  Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January.  Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game.  That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters.  They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine.  San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out.  This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season.  BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued.  They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC.  However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight.  The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively.  Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy.  Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13.  Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13.  Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year.  The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego.  This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -1 over Arizona State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We were on ASU on Saturday night as they were a small favorite vs an undefeated (in Pac 12 play) Washington.  We thought the game set up very well with ASU coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to Washington St while UW was off a rare win @ Arizona.  On top of that a few of the Husky players were under the weather.  The game worked out as planned with the Devils rolling up a double digit win.  Now off that huge home win we’ll fade them here on the road.  Colorado is playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won 3 straight including back to back road wins @ UCLA & @ USC.  The Buffs have won 4 of their last 6 games and one of their losses came by 2 points to Oregon State in a game they led at half and was back and forth down the stretch.  They could easily on a 5-1 run right now.  CU is 8-2 at home this year and they’ve won 26 of their last 32 games here at the Coors Event Center.  Their offense has been MUCH better at home where they are shooting 49% and scoring 83 PPG and if you remove their one outlier road performance (95 points @ Air Force) the Buffs average just 68 PPG on the road.  Arizona State has been all over the board this year.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State this season.  They’ve also lost to Princeton, Washington State, and Vanderbilt.  Their losses to Princeton & Washington State came after huge wins over Kansas & Arizona.  We see a pattern here and would be surprised if the Sun Devils are at their best tonight after giving Washington their first conference loss.  These two met back in early January and CU played one of their worst games of the season in a 83-61 loss.  The Buffs shot 33% for the game while ASU hit nearly 58% of their shots.  That should give Colorado a little extra motivation tonight.  Just a few weeks ago the Buffs were laying -3 here vs Washington, easily the best team in the Pac 12.  Now they are laying just -1 vs Arizona State.  The host has covered 11 of the last 12 and we like Colorado to pick up another win.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Sacramento +7.5 over Denver, Wednesday at 9:05 PM ET

The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Nuggets have similar numbers defensive when it comes to efficiency ratings, but Denver is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th). Denver had lost 3 in a row on a road trip then came home and caught the Heat in a perfect letdown situation the other night for a solid home win. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 43% shooting. The same can’t be said for Denver who has allowed opponents to hit over 48% of their attempts in their last five. Sacramento hasn’t had much success in Denver, but they are a completely different team right now playing with confidence. Grab the generous points with the Kings who will keep this close throughout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado State +3 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPN2

SDSU is simply not trustworthy as a road favorite.  This team isn’t nearly as good as past editions yet the continue to get respect as if they are.  The Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the road in MWC play with their only win coming @ San Jose State who is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 342nd out of 351).  They have been a terrible road favorite this year as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games outright when laying points on the road.  Their most recent was last week when they were favored in this range @ New Mexico and lost by 13 (we were on New Mexico in that game).  It’s also a bad spot for SDSU as they are off a huge home win over Utah State (2nd ranked team in the MWC) and they have a big home revenger on deck vs Boise State this weekend.  Colorado State is just 4-7 in league play however they’ve faced the toughest schedule in league play.  Nearly half of their games have come against the top 3 teams in the league as they’ve already faced Nevada twice, Fresno twice, and Utah State once.  Of their 7 conference losses, 5 have come against the top 4 teams in the league.  The Rams are 3-2 at home in Mountain West play with their only losses coming to Nevada (best team in the league and one of the best in the nation) and by 2 points to Boise State (5th rated team in the conference).  They’ve also beaten Fresno (8-3 in conference play) here at Moby Arena.  San Diego State is ripe to go down AGAIN as a road favorite and we’ll be on Colorado State in this game. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -5.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9:00  PM ET

These two met just 2 weeks ago and Bama -2 came out on top 83-79 (we were on Bama in that game).  The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner at home in this one and this has become pretty much a must win spot.  MSU if off 2 straight down to the wire home losses vs two of the top three teams in the SEC.  Last week they lost in OT by 4 points to LSU and over the weekend they were ousted by a red hot Kentucky team by 4 points.  The Bulldogs were in a position to win both of those games but did not.  Now at 4-6 in league play, they need this win for their NCAA hopes.  Mississippi State has lost 4 of their last 6 games but those setbacks were vs Kentucky (twice), LSU, and this Alabama team on the road.  That is a tough stretch and the losses were not surprising.  After this game, MSU leaves for a 2 game road trip after this game so a loss could be devastating.  Bama comes in off 2 straight wins, however unlike MSU playing the top of the conference teams, the Tide beat Georgia & Vandy, the two lowest rated teams in the SEC.  They are 2-5 in road games this season with their only wins coming @ Vandy (lowest rated team in the SEC) and @ Mizzou in OT (4th lowest rated team in the SEC).  This is Alabama’s 2nd road game in 4 days after beating Vanderbilt on Saturday.  The Tide might also be without two key big man reserves tonight (Reese & Smith) who played key roles in their win over MSU a few weeks ago.  We think this sets up very nicely for the Bulldogs and we’ll lay the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Our power ratings have the Terps favored by 1 in this game so we’ll take the value as they are getting 2.5 points.  The closest comparison we can use was when Maryland was at home vs Wisconsin just a few weeks ago and the Terps were favored by -3.5 in that game.  This line is currently a full 6-points from where that line was released despite the fact that the Badgers and Boilers are dead even in our power ratings (even on a neutral court).  Maryland is just happy to be playing a home game (where they are 5-0 SU in Big 10 play) as they’ve been on the road for 5 of their last 6 games.  They’ve played just one home game since January 14th.  The Boilers, on the other hand, have been at home for 3 of their last 4 games.  They have played 5 conference road games this year and they are 3-2 in those games with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime.  However, on the road against the top 6 conference teams, Purdue has a 1-2 record with their only win @ Wisconsin in OT.  Tonight they face the 5th rated Big 10 team on the road and they have faced a top 6 team on the road since January 11th.  Purdue relies too heavily on the 3-pointer (40% of their points which ranks 14th nationally) and too much on 1 player Carsen Edwards.  While they have been very good, we have a feeling those two things will catch up with them on the road vs good teams.  The fact is Maryland is actually a better 3-point shooting team (#1 in the Big Ten at 39.7%) and they are facing a Purdue defense that doesn’t defend the arc very well allowing 37% (12th in the league).  The Terps are also the best rebounding team in the league by quite a large margin (+9 rebound margin) and they have been plus rebounds in every Big Ten game this season.  That should give them extra opportunities at home tonight and if they can slow down Purdue’s perimeter game, they should win this game.  If it comes down to FT’s down the stretch, also keep in mind Maryland is the best FT shooting team in the Big 10 at 76.3%.  These two met in early December when this young Maryland team was still finding their way and they almost pulled the upset in West Lafayette losing by 2.  Tonight they get the home win.  Take Maryland.

ASA play on: #568 Denver Nuggets -9.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – From a scheduling standpoint you couldn’t ask for a better situation to play on Denver and against Miami. The Heat are off a demoralizing loss at Golden State yesterday, playing tonight without rest in the higher altitude and this is their 3rd game in four nights. Denver on the other hand just suffered a 3-game road losing streak and saw their lead over OKC for the second spot in the West shrink to just 1 game and now trail Golden State by 3.  Denver has the leagues best home record of 23-4 SU and the second-best home differential of 12PPG. Prior to beating Portland on this current road trip, the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential (+.4), BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Miami is 4-3 SU when playing the second night of a back to back but this situation is different considering what they are coming off and where they play tonight. Miami was just +13.5 points at Golden State and +7 in Portland so you can see for yourself this line is too low based previous spreads. Denver is nearly equal to Golden State and we feel this line should be -11.5 or -12 at the very least. In fact, the Nuggets were recently -10 against Philly at home and are laying less here. The Nugs are on a 20-8 spread run at home and have covered 4 of their last five versus teams with winning road records. The bet here is clearly Denver!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times.  IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8.  OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6.  The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games.  They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State.  Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing.  IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers.  Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4.  Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska).  The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG.  Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%.  OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team.  The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation.  IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here.  We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win. 

ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN

Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right?  The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4.  We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago.  Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60.  The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game.  It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012.  Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State.  That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances.  This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few.  With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61.  This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington.  We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean.  Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even.  The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be.  As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12.  They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road.  Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed.  The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall.  Take Arizona State at home.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON West Virginia +5 over Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - On ESPN2

We feel this WVU team is a very dangerous one at home.  They are having a down year with a record of just 10-13 overall, however they are a very good program that is very well coached under Bob Huggins.  We felt they’d get much better as they season has gone on and they have, especially at home.  They have won 2 of their last 3 home games with wins over Kansas & Oklahoma.  After their win over the Sooners here last Saturday, WVU went on the road and got smoked to Texas Tech which wasn’t a huge surprise off their big home win.  It’s also helping the line value here in our opinion.  Texas is off a big home win over a red hot Baylor team.  The Horns also have a huge home game on deck next week vs 1st place Kansas State.  This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns who are just 1-5 SU on the road in conference play.  UT has simply been a terrible road team in Big 12 play winning just 2 of their last 23 conference road games.  Not only are they being asked to win this road game – which they obviously very rarely do – they need to win by a solid margin as a road favorite.  These two met in January @ Texas and the Horns were far from dominant in the 61-54 home win.  WVU has confidence here after their recent play at home and that should be bolstered by the way they played @ Texas last month.  We think the Mountaineers have a solid shot at the win here and we’ll take the points.   

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Baylor -2.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN2

The Bears are in a great spot at home for this game.  Baylor was red hot winning 6 straight games (4 by double digits) before losing @ Texas earlier this week.  That dropped them to 7-3 in league play, 1-game behind their opponent on Saturday, KSU.  The catch the Wildcats in a definite letdown spot as they won their “game of the year” earlier this week beating arch rival Kansas (we were on KSU).  While the Wildcats are not a great offensive team, they rely heavily on their defense to win games.  The problem for KSU besides the situation is this, Baylor’s defensive numbers are nearly just as good as KSU’s yet the Bears offense is much better.  They both allow just 41% shooting on the year so a wash there, Baylor’s offense ranks #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, #1 in eFG%, and #1 in 3-point FG%.  The Bears are also the best offensive rebounding team AND the best defensive rebounding team in the conference so their opponents do not get many extra opportunities while Baylor does.  With their marksmanship from deep (40% and #1 in the conference) the Bears should be able to take advantage of a Wildcat defense that is dead last in the league defending the arc.  We expect Kansas State to have problems on offense as they shoot just 39% on the road this year.  BU has covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS setback coming by a point and half.  This sets up perfectly in our opinion and we’ll lay the small number with Baylor. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Marquette -1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET on FOX

It’s pretty much a Marquette – Villanova battle for the Big East Title.  With 8 games remaining Nova sits at 10-0 with Marquette at 8-2 – everyone else has at least 5 losses.  Nova is off an OT win at home on Wednesday over Creighton.  Three Wildcat starters topped 40 minutes in that game.  The Cats are very thin with Jay Wright normally playing just 7 players so that could be a factor here off a big OT win.  Marquette comes in off a 1-point home loss on Tuesday to St Johns.  It was the Eagles first home loss of the season.  That game was on Tuesday giving  them an extra day to prepare and with the game at home, really 2 extra days to prepare.  The Wildcats offense has look very good as of late but keep in mind they’ve played 6 straight games vs teams ranked 5th or lower in the Big East in defensive efficiency.  Now they face a much improved Marquette defense that ranks #1 in the conference in eFG% defense and 2nd in defensive efficiency.  At home, Marquette has held opponents to just 62 PPG on 37% shooting.  Offensively the Eagles rank #1 in the Big East in 3-point FG% (40%), #1 in FT% (79%) and 3rd in eFG%.  They have shot very well at the new Fiserv Forum (Bucks NBA Arena) which is a big arena which has been tough on opponents with only 2 of their 15 foes reaching 1.00 point per possession here.  We expect the Wildcats to have some problems offensively while Marquette should play well on that end of the court vs a Villanova defense that allows 48% on the road.  Marquette is 14-1 at home and have beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Buffalo here at Fiserv.  This is pretty much a must win game for Marquette or they fall 3 full games behind Nova.  Coming off their first home loss, we like the Eagles to win this one.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings -3 over Miami Heat, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and we’re not about to abandon them in this situation. Sacramento had won 3 straight at home against Atlanta, Philly and San Antonio before a blowout loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. In other words, two quality wins over playoff teams in the 76ers and Spurs. The letdown game against the Rockets is excusable as the players were dealing with rumors of potential trades, along with a big win over the Spurs in the previous game. Now they are home, off a bad loss against an average team from the East (West has dominated the East overall this season).  Miami meanwhile is coming off a big upset win in Portland as a 7-point underdog. Prior to that win the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential, BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight at home and 10-4 SU their last fourteen with the four losses coming against the best teams in the West (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets).  Easy call here with the Kings at home minus the short number.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We’ve been waiting for the trade deadline to pass before making any selections today as the impact of players being moved can be dramatic and traumatic for teams. The Wolves weren’t in a position to make a move and Orlando made a minor deal so we’re good to go with this wager. The Wolves are coming off a very tough stretch of games against the Jazz (2), Memphis (2) and Denver so I doubt they have much left in their tanks to face Orlando. The Magic won 2 straight at home prior to a road loss in OKC in their most recent outing. Orlando’s home wins were solid as they came against a hot Nets team and the Pacers. These two teams met in early January with the Wolves trouncing the Magic by 17-points. That was at home though and now this game is in Orlando which is a big deal when it comes to the Wolves. Minnesota is 8-18 SU on the road this year with one of the worst point differentials of -4.7PPG. They shoot just 44% on the road and allow opponents to hit over 47% of their attempts. Orlando has covered 15 of the last twenty meetings and we expect that trend to continue.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET

We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats.  They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5).  They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses.  On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records.  The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC.   Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference.  They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4.  Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate.  The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4.  That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team.  They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee.  The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here.  Cincy is vulnerable on the road.  They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league).  Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it.  The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt

The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion.  They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida).  LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss.  Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4.  Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win.  It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally.  The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost.  We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road.  Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race.   They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday.  The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark.  MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits.  We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in.  Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas.  We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2

The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno).  They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that.  They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State.  The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s.  That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here.  Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State.  The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season.  They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams).  It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59.  Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31.  In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part.  They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58!  That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1.  In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66.  San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot.  SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back  to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite.  Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN

Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU.  They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile.  Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today.  Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at.  KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum.  Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season.  The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage.  This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games.  They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road.  It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury.  The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight.  Take Kansas State.

ASA play on: #542 Sacramento Kings +2 over San Antonio Spurs, 10PM ET – We’ve won a lot this year playing on the Kings and will add to your bankroll with another wager on them tonight. Sacramento is a young, fun and exciting team on the rise in the NBA this season. The Kings sit 9th in the West and are just 1-game behind the Clippers for the 8th and final playoff spot. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home on the season and have won 6 straight on their own floor. Prior to the 6-game home winning streak they had lost two games to the Warriors and Nuggets (arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA) by 4-point each. Now they face a Spurs team that is just 10-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is right around the league average. Not to mention, that most of the Spurs 10 road wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league. In fact, only 3 of the Spurs 10 road wins came against teams with winning overall records. San Antonio is just 4-3 ATS as a small favorite in this price range, the Kings are 6-3 ATS as a small dog in this price range. Sacramento keeps the positive momentum rolling after a big home win over the 76ers on Saturday with another home win here. Take Sacramento!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH

These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss.  The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog.  It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points.  Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place.  They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team.  Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for.  This is the Birds biggest home game of the season.  Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.  They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season.  Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season.  They want this one badly.  ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup.  They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG).  They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season.  The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6).  They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48).  Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively.  Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode.  Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games.  It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2.  We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET

These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road.  That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings.  The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining.  UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots.  Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line.  The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team.  That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then.  In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team.  They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting.  Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%.  The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG.  UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots.  The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG.  UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass.  Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here.  The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation.  We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH

We love the way this one sets up.  WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA.  They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion.  They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now.  If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league.  They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss.  They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily.  It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA.  The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY.  That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers.  Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play.  Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half  (7) of the league.  Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss.  One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1.  We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least.  Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play.  They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB.  UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem.  The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight.  We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion.  They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play.  The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice.  They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston.  This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road.  Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year.  They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season.  The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend.  Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%.  Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep.  Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally).  They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally.  Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road.  Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games.  Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits.  We like Tulsa getting points at home here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

This is a massively important game for Butler.  They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East.  They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton.  The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion.  They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette.  Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season.  They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th.  They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year.  Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting.  After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight.  However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East.  Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings.  On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win.  The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot.  They have very little inside game.  36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play.  The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench.  Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here.  The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette.  We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team.  That should tell you something.  Butler is the side here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry.  Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so.  However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home.  They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road.  They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point.  Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance.  UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play.  They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play.  The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points.  They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well.  They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC.  While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league).  UNLV should be able to take advantage of that.  This line is too high in our opinion.  Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St).  Those results set this one up nicely for the home team.  Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5.  Now they are laying nearly double digits.  Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.

ASA play on: Philadelphia 76ers -7 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We like the situation with the 76ers coming off a blowout loss in Denver a few nights ago, while the Lakers are off a win over the Suns. Philly’s big stars of Embiid and Butler will be in the line up tonight for this TNT game in Los Angeles. The Lakers though have some key injuries with Kuzma (?), Ball and James out. The Lakers defense has not been good of late as they’ve given up 120 or more points in regulation in 4 of their last five games. Philly is 6-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here in this marquee matchup. Based on the betting markets and line fluctuations it’s an easy call for us on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday.  So Kentucky’s the play here right?  It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle.  First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite.  Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here.  In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game.  Not once.  Their biggest lead was 11.  Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena.  UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend.  Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck.  Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU.  In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT.  This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky.  This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits.  Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here.  We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win.  The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend.  Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining.  The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark.  Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor.  It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition.  Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama.  They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next.  The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here.  They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago.  The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy.  MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field.  We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding).  They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc.  We really like Alabama in this spot.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons +8 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – The Bucks are coming off a loss in Oklahoma City and haven’t lost two consecutive games this season. BUT they must win this game by 8 or more points, and we don’t think they’ll do that. Let’s talk about value here first. The Bucks hosted the Pistons on January 1st and were -10 points at home. In mid-December the Bucks were a -3-point favorite in Detroit and won 107-104. You can see for yourself the over-adjustment the oddsmakers have made on tonight’s number. Milwaukee also has a MUCH bigger game on deck in Toronto and may get caught looking past a team they just beat by 23 a few weeks ago. Detroit is well rested here with their last game being on January 25th in Dallas. They are 21-27 SU on the season and It’s becoming a dire situation if they want to make the playoffs this season. Of their 27 losses this season, fourteen have come by 8 or less points. They have an overall negative differential of -2.6PPG on the season, +.1 at home. The Bucks have failed to cover 4 straight games which is a sign the lines are catching up to them. The Pistons are the play here and they will get their 7th cover in their last nine games.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record.  Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record.  The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops.  That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers.  This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above.  That’s too easy.  While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall.  Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home.  They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season.  Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home.  Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago.  Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home.  First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago.  Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch.  That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win.  Both teams took 64 shots and made 31.  Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona).  The rebounds were pretty much dead even.  The difference?  Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona.  We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield.  The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET

The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win.  In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games.  They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71.  Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game.  Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference.  No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play.  Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up.  This is a must win for Stanford.  They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion.  First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida.  Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego.  In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference.  Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal.  One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall.  It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving.  CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire.  Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford).  We really like the match for Stanford as well.  Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc.  The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference).   On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league).  This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win.  Take Stanford.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record.  That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now.  They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant.  They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points.  The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire.  This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here.  They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year).  Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year.  UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion.  The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road.  They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night.  Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday.  Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one.  These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU.  The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one.   UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average).  The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET

This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation.  There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU.  The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season.  They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76.  It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4.  We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title.  Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points).  Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide).  That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels.  Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents.  They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc).  That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to.  Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team.  The Rebs dominated that game 82-67.  Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a revenger from a game played @ St Marys back on January 5th.  The Gaels were favored by 6 in that game and now favored on the road just a few weeks later.  Based on that first number, BYU should be a 2 point favorite here.  The first game was an 88-66 blowout win for St Marys which is a contributing factor to why they are now favored on the road.  The loss should have BYU extra motivated here as they played very poorly shooting just 40% from the field (55% for St Marys) and just 6 of 17 from 3-point land.  After losing their WCC opener @ San Francisco, the Gaels have ripped off 4 straight wins – 3 of those coming at home.  Their only road win in conference play was @ Loyola Marymount who is 2-3 in league play.  Overall St Marys is just 1-2 in true road games and 3-5 in road/neutral games.  BYU is 9-1 at home and just happy to be back at the Marriott Center as 7 of their last 9 games have been played away from home.  The Cougs are 4-2 in WCC play and this is a huge game for them kicking off a 3 game homestand which includes a date with Gonzaga.  They are winning their home games by an average score of 83-67 and they really step in up defensively at the Marriott Center holding opposing teams to just 39% from the field.  Provo has proven to be a very tough place for teams to come in and win as BYU has won 37 of their last 40 games here.  It’s not often we get BYU as a home dog and we’ll jump on it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CONERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH

These two teams have very similar records with Western Kentucky coming in at 10-9 (3-3 on Conference USA play) while Southern Miss sits at 11-8 (3-4 in CUSA play).  However, we feel WKY is the much better team and we’re getting some solid value laying only a point or two in this game.  Western’s 3 conference losses have come by 1, 1, and 3 points.  Two of those losses came at the hands for Old Dominion (rated #1 in CUSA) & Marshall (#4 in CUSA), two of the top 4 teams in CUSA (Western is the #2 rated team in the conference).  USM’s conference losses have come by 18, 15, 8, and 3 points.  The Eagles wins have come by 3, 5, and 7 points with two of those games played against Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte, two of the three teams in CUSA.  Southern Miss has 11 wins as we mentioned however ZERO of those wins have come against teams ranked inside the top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team ranked inside the top 150 and that game took place on November 11th (win over SMU).  Nine of their eleven wins have come against teams ranked 200 or lower including 3 vs non-division 1 opponents who are not ranked at all.  The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have beaten Wisconsin, St Marys, Arkansas (on the road) and West Virginia (neutral site).  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency in conference games) over the Eagles who are a poor defensive team (13th in CUSA defensive efficiency in conference games).  WKY should also have a large advantage on the boards as USM is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.  The Eagles are the shortest team in the nation with only one regular contributor taller than 6’5.  Their rebounding margin in their 7 conference game is -36 while WKY is +36 on the boards in their 6 league games.  Western has dominated this series winning 4 straight all by double digits including last year’s wins by 16 & 17 points.  Southern Miss has not had a big home court advantage with a record of just 20-18 SU @ Reed Coliseum since the start of the 2016 season (minus non-division 1 opponents).  Because of USM’s +.500 record this year vs terrible competition, we’re getting WKY as the lowest number they’ve laid in this series since 2013.  Hilltoppers cruise here.      

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UMass -3.5 over St Bonaventure, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

A few weeks ago we grabbed St Bonnies at home vs St Joes as a Top Play and the Bonnies won in a rout.  We felt they were undervalued as their record was poor but they were getting some players back and finally at full strength.  Since that win they are just 1-2 with their only win coming against Fordham who is 0-5 in league play.  The Bonnies also now have some more injurie issues and they are in a terrible situational spot here.  They are coming off a double OT loss at home on Saturday to Dayton.  It was a game St Bonaventure led by 10 in the 2nd half and felt they should have won making this an emotionally tough spot for them on the road.  They were down 2 starters in that game (Kaputo & Poyser) both with concussion issues leaving this team very thin.  They have almost no bench right now leaving their starters to play 50, 48, 47, 46, and 35 minutes on Saturday.  On top of that the Bonnies are 0-6 this year in true road games and if you add in their neutral site games, they are 1-9.  They are also 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 true road games.  UMass is 0-5 in league play yet favored by 3.5 here which is a buy sign in our opinion.  They are better than their A10 record as they’ve been very competitive with some of the top teams in the league losing by 3 @ St Louis (currently 5-0 in first place in A10), by 5 @ Dayton (4-1 in the A10), and by 5 to a red hot George Mason team (5-1 in the A10).  The Minutemen have been competitive against the best teams in the league and they’ve played the toughest conference schedule already having faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic 10. This is now a huge home game for them as they see an opportunity for their first win in conference play.  Lay the small number with UMass here. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams.  That’s what we have here.  The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels.  Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that.  That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing.  However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama.  We are in that group as well.  This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide.  They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win.  Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here.  Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona.  Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset.  The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee.  Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss.  A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits.  Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight.  Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday.  Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight.  He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field.  In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field.  He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot.  He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength.  The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100.  They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them.  The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.

ASA play on: #526 Portland Trailblazers +5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – Let’s double up on our NBA profits today with a late game winner on this Western Conference showdown. Earlier today we cashed with a wager on the Under in the Pistons vs. Wizards game. We like the Blazers here for several reasons including double-revenge from two losses to the Jazz in late December. Portland is playing well right now have faced a tough schedule coming into this game. In their last four games on the road the Blazers have gone 2-2 SU with wins at the Warriors and Kings, two losses in Denver by 3 and at Sacramento by 8. In the game at Denver they were +4.5 points and at the time the Nuggets had the best overall record in the West. Now they are catching more points against the 7th seed Jazz? The over-correction by the oddsmakers is due to the Blazers current 6-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled by that number. Utah’s last six wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (Cavs and Bulls), a 19-win Magic team, a 20-win Pistons team, the Lakers without LeBron and the Clippers. We’re not impressed. The Jazz have some injuries at guard right now which is a strength for the Blazers with Lillard and McCollum, who combined average 46PPG, over 8 RPG and nearly 9 assists per game. The Blazers are quietly on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with plenty of motivation here after a pair of losses late last month. Grab the points!

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma State +13.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

This is a really tough spot for ISU.  After losing back to back games vs Baylor & Kansas State, the Cyclones went on the road this week in a close to must win spot @ Texas Tech.  We were on ISU and they played great as we expected and pulled the upset.  Now they come home and play an Oklahoma State team they’ve already beaten this year and ISU goes to Kansas on Monday.  To be entirely focused on this Cowboy team when considering the circumstances will be tough.  That would be a mistake because OSU has been playing very well and they’ve been competitive in every Big 12 game despite their 2-3 conference record.  Their losses have come by 4, 6, and 10 points with the latter coming @ Oklahoma in a game that was a 4-point game with just 4:00 remaining.  In their last 3 games OSU beat Texas at home, beat WVU on the road, and then blew a 2nd half lead and lost to Baylor by 4.  In the first meeting between these 2 in early January, the Cowboys led at half and never trailed by more than 7 points in the 2nd half.  ISU won 69-63 in a game they led by just 3 points with 2:00 remaining.  OSU outrebounded the Cyclones but were -8 in made FT’s which turned out to be the difference in the game.  ISU shoots a lot of 3’s and the struggled in that game hitting only 30% (on 30 attempts).  We don’t see that changing here as the Cowboys are 2nd in the Big 12 at defending the 3 (in league play) allowing only 29%.  If ISU doesn’t go off from deep in this game, we feel Oklahoma State can hang around just as they did a few weeks ago.  OSU should have some confidence after playing Iowa State to the wire while the Cyclones will be peaking ahead to their date with Kansas in just 2 days.  Take the double digits here.    

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -1 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

The Broncos are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Because they have a losing record (8-9) they are undervalued right now.  The started the season winning just 5 of their first 13 games which was a bit surprising as they returned 4 of their top 7 players from a team that finished last year with a 23-9 record.  After their slow start they have now won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming earlier this week vs #10 Nevada.  That was a game Boise led and had the ball with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game but lost 72-71.  That’s the same Nevada team that won by 10 @ Fresno last Saturday.  Head coach Leon Rice has mentioned how much the defense has improved over the last month and the numbers support that as the Broncos have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession.  The only offense as of late that was able to top that was Nevada who has the 18th most efficient offense in the country and they barely got over 1.00 PPP (1.03).  Fresno relies very heavily on the 3-point shot (38.7 % of their points – 38th nationally) which we are always wary of when teams go on the road.  The 3-point shot doesn’t always travel well and Boise allows just 32% from deep at home.  Fresno has played a very easy schedule having faced only two teams ranked inside the top 115 since November 23.  They are 2-1 on the road, however their wins came against San Jose State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Utah State (a game FSU didn’t have a lead until the final shot of the game – 78-77 win).  Boise has a very good home court advantage – 20-4 since the start of last season – and simply need to win here.  The undervalued Broncos get the home win.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Indiana +7.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

The Hoosiers are in a somewhat desperate spot here coming off 3 straight losses and we look for an all out effort vs their in state rival.  IU is coming off losses @ Michigan and @ Maryland and then a home setback at the hands of Nebraska.  They played Michigan (lost by 9) & Maryland (lost by 2 – blew a 14 point lead) very tough on the road and then played perhaps their worst game of the year at home vs the Huskers on Monday. In that 66-51 loss to Nebraska the Hoosiers shot only 36% overall and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts.  It was just one of those games where everything went wrong.  We love looking at good teams coming off embarrassing losses.  Purdue, on the other hand, won at Wisconsin in OT last weekend and then crushed Rutgers here on Tuesday.  Off those games, the Boilers could be a bit overvalued now.  We feel this is a very good match up for Indiana.  The Boilers rely VERY heavily on the 3 point shot with a whopping 41% of their points coming from deep (14th nationally).  However IU defends the arc very well allowing opponents to make only 29% of their shots from beyond the arc.  In their last 3 games vs solid 3-point shooting teams (Michigan, Maryland, and Nebraska) the Hoosiers held them to a combined 20 of 65 from deep (30%).  If Purdue struggles from beyond the arc, they are in trouble.  That’s because they don’t score consistently inside the arc (322nd in 2 point scoring percentage) and they don’t get to the line often (311th in FT scoring percentage).  Indiana is a decent 3-point shooting game (35%) and Purdue stinks at defending the arc (306th nationally).  The Hoosiers are also very good at scoring inside making 58% of their shots from 2-point land (7th nationally).  We’re getting value with the number as well here.  IU was just a 9 point dog @ Michigan and a 5-point dog @ Maryland.  Those numbers tell us this number should be closer to +5, not +7.5.  We think IU has a shot to pull the upset here and we’ll take the generous points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in.  This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team.  They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road.  Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog.  After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well.  They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT.  WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half.  They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9).  They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record.  The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win.  That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column.  We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati.  They are not playing at the top of their game right now.  After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games.  They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home.  Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above.  They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG.  Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to.  This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog.  The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog.  They do the same here.  Wichita pulls the upset.

ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for OSU.  They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0.  Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game.  OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State.  The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win.  The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU.  Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year.  They play very hard and play excellent defense.  Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road.  They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs).  Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game.  Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them.  This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins.  They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3.  Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game.  Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win.  Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt.  Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here.  This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do.  Take the Buckeyes.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -13.5 over Chicago Bulls, Thurs 9PM ET –The Bulls are wrapping up a brutal 5 game West Coast road trip against some of the better teams in the league and fatigue will be an issue tonight. They really couldn’t go into Denver in a worse situation as the Nuggets were just embarrassed on their home court Tuesday night by the Warriors. In fact, the Nuggets were in a similar situation earlier this year coming off a bad loss to Houston at home, then hosting Atlanta who they crushed by 45-points. Denver (18-4 SU at home) has the 5th best home point differential in the NBA at +9.3PPG. Chicago has the 6th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.7PPG. The Bulls are 3-16 SU against the West this season with an average differential of -10.7PPG. On the road the numbers are worse for Chicago as they sport a 1-9 SU road record against the West with an average loss margin of 13.4PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home versus the East this season, 5-0 their last five with an average margin of victory of 20PPG. Denver is 3-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season and they won’t let up in this game with just the Cavaliers on deck. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State  +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice.  They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire.  Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points.  Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here.  Getting points will be valuable.  ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points.  Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining.  This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference.  We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion.  They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night.  The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting.  Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight.  ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more.  We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one.  That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency).  They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games.  We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers.  We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week.  Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck.  Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday.  They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight.  On top of that, this team struggles on the road.  They have played just 2 true road games  this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points.  They were FAVORED in both.  They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots.  Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games.  They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts.  A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend.  In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1.  They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home.  Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost.  The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home.  Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion.  We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes.  Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record.  The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win.  We expect they’ll play very well in this game.  The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland.  Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league.  Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season.  The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home.  We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook.  That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team.  The Hawks did come from 7 points  down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits.  The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season.  Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU.  The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark.  Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday.  The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games.  PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One

Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion.  Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end.  They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton.  Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle.  First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime.  Not once.  On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds.  Yes you read that correctly.  Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation.  We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close).  Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year.  They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games.  They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots!  The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that.  Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points.  They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again.  The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games.  Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles.  G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year.  Hoyas in this one outright.

NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.

ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS).  Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion.  They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday.  It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half.  Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game.  It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record).  The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12.  We expect an all out effort on Saturday.  ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday.  The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game.  Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points.  In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal).  Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today.  The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record.   The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings.  Take the points with Stanford. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here.  Not only a loss but an embarrassing one.  The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite.  Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%.  Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers.  Really tough to overcome those two situations.  Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back.  They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road.  The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee.  They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd.  For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13.  Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia.  The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally).  The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage).  Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint.  The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here.  Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago.  We feel this one could turn into a blowout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET

Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now.  After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games.  They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation.  That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team.  Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU.  They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara.  Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team.  They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175.  They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally).  That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot.  Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition.  They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation.  Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally.  Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss.  You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday.  It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer.  It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins.  Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule.  Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire.  Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech.  This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season.  Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well.  Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas).  So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on.  Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF  THE WEEK

St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule.  They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home.  At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team.  Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points.  This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason.  They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire.  That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home.  The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season.  Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games.  Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA.  They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record.  St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month.  They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home.  The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team.  They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month.  St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting.  The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer.  They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here.  The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home.  Now this line sits near a pick-em.  While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year.  We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday.  Take St Bonaventure at home.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday.  For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation.  ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons.  On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60.  It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury.  Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up.  They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12).  In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots.  They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81.  The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man.  It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not.  Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday.  Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining.  We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday.  We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday.  The value is with Baylor here.  They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State.  Now they are getting points.  The Bears pull the upset here.

ASA 9Star play on: #588 Sacramento Kings -5 over Orlando Magic, 10PM ET – We like the under-rated Sacramento Kings at home minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic tonight. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games against the Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers, Lakers (twice), Clippers and Thunder in seven of their last ten games. The other three opponents in that 10-game stretch are the Pelicans, Grizzlies and T’Wolves who aren’t cupcakes. Now Sac-Town steps WAY down to face a 17-22 SU Magic team that has struggled on the road. Twelve of Orlando’s seventeen wins this season have come against the East, making them 5-12 SU against the West. In their last six road games the Magic are 1-5 SU win the lone win coming against the Bulls. The other five losses have come by -10, -17, -25, -10 and -25 points. Sacramento has quietly put together a 19-20 SU record on the season and sit just a game-and-a-half out of the Playoff picture. The Kings are 12-17 against the West but 7-3 SU versus the East. The overall metrics don’t give the Kings much of an advantage here but when you factor in the strength of schedule (Kings 4th, Magic 25th) it shows the discrepancy between the two teams. We’ll call for a double-digit win by Sacramento.

ASA Play on: #574 Phoenix Suns +2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8PM ET – We don’t expect Charlotte to have much left in their tank after a game last night in Denver and the Suns will crack the win column at home. The Hornets defense has been bad of late as they’ve given up 122 and 123 their last two games and over that in four of their last six games. Phoenix has lost five straight games, but it came against some of the best teams in the league. Now with a legitimate chance to win at home against a mid-tier Eastern Conference team they’ll get it done. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Hornets are on a 0-4 ATS streak on the road and are just 1-5 ATS their last six meetings in Phoenix. The Suns get a much-needed home win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74.  On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road.  Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st.  They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis.  They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120.  If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100.  Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State.  Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points.  They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November.  They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral).  Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season.  Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses.  Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense.  The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points.  We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home.  The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58.  Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers.  The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%).  The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games.  We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late.  On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home.  The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month.  They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303).  Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1.  Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team.  The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21.  On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win.  Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough.  The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home.  After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday.  They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win.  The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games.  At home they allow only 39% for the season.  This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team.  Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now.  We feel SDSU is just the opposite.  Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena.  These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.

ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Talk about a team flying under the radar.  San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home.  Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California.  Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday.  Tight losses vs very good teams.  UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year.  Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia.  The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense).  They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG.  The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season.  The Gaels are down this year.  They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team.  The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season).  They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games.  St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team.  San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely.  The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center.  They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well.  This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.

ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -9 over Georgetown, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

We expect a huge bounce back from the Bulldogs as they come off their worst loss since 1994.  Butler traveled to Florida on Saturday, a team they had already beaten this year, and the Gators went off winning 77-43.  It was the perfect storm with the motivated Gators shooting lights out at home (53%) and the normally solid shooting Bulldogs hitting just 30%.  After outrebounding Florida in their other meeting this year, Butler was destroyed to the tune of 43-14 on the boards.  No effort whatsoever from the Bulldogs which is not the norm for this team.  Their coach Lavell Jordan and every player on this team was embarrassed following that effort on Saturday.  While they are just 2-4 in games away from home (away/neutral) the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 at home at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they face Georgetown tonight.  Hinkle provides one of the best home court advantages in college basketball and Butler has won 60 of their last 72 games here.  They catch a G’Town team that has a solid 10-3 record but has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation this year ranking 313th in SOS.  The Hoyas have played only 3 top 100 teams this year and they are 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming over #77 Liberty.  They have also not been away from home in almost a month with their last road game coming on December 8th.  On top of that the Hoyas look like they will not be at 100% for this one with leading scorer Mac McClung and starting forward Trey Mourning may both be out here.  McClung, a freshman averaging 13 PPG, was out last game due to an injured ankle or at least that was the story they went with.  He was not in the building for the game and there are rumors floating around that he may look to transfer.  Either way, not a great situation.  Mourning is still in concussion protocol.  Butler shoots it very well at home (51% overall & 40% from deep) with an average margin of victory at 17 points.  Facing a team that hasn’t been on the road in nearly a month & off their worst loss in 25 years, this one sets up for a potential Butler rout and we expect at least a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Johns -1.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

Love this spot for St Johns.  We went against the Red Storm on Saturday and came up one point short as they lost @ Seton Hall 76-74 as a 3-point dog.  We have to admit the Johnnies played much better than we thought they would.  They were 12-0 coming into the game but hadn’t played a great schedule and nearly all of their games had been at home.  They were taking on a Seton Hall team that had already beaten the likes of Kentucky & Maryland (on the road).  St Johns proves us wrong as they led on the road for nearly the entire game including holding a 10 point lead with just 6:00 remaining in the game.  In fact the Pirates largest lead of the game was just 2 points.  The way the game ended should have St Johns motivated here as they lost on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Red Storm is now back at home where they have an average margin of victory of 18 PPG shooting nearly 50% from the field while allowing just 39%.  Marquette has moved up the rankings all the way to #16 on the back of a 8 game winning streak.  They have been doing their damage at home as this team has not left Milwaukee since November 23rd!  They are just 1-2 in their 3 games away from home (away & neutral) and in their only true road game @ Indiana they Golden Eagles were rolled 96-73.  They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot (35% of their points) which can be tough to maintain on the road, especially when you’ve played at home for over a month straight.  Last year the Johnnies were favored by a similar number (-2) and won 86-78.  They home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and there is a reason the unranked team (St Johns) is favored over the #16 team in the country.  Lay the small number.

ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border.

ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State +2 over Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

We felt the Ducks came into this season overvalued ranking in the top 20 in most pre-season polls and undeserved in our opinion.  They were a solid 23-13 a year ago but lost a number of key players and they are relying on young players this year.  More so in this game as they have lost a few key contributors as of late.  Starting forward Kenny Wooten was injured in their most recent game – a 10 point loss @ Baylor – and he is out.  Freshman and leading scorer Bol Bol has missed 3 games and they are not sure if he can come back from a foot problem here.  Even if he does, he won’t be 100%.  Starter Abu Kigab is also out with an injury for this game.  The Ducks will be relying here on a number of players who’ve seen very little action this year as their bench is ultra-thin due to the injuries.  As we discuss our thoughts on Boise, you’ll see they are the direct opposite of Oregon.  We feel the Broncos are undervalued due to their 5-7 record.  This team is talented.  They  return 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s team that was 23-9.  They also added one of the top JC transfers in the nation in RJ Williams who leads the Broncos in scoring at 15 PPG.  They’ve had a tough start with 7 of their 12 games coming away from home.  Four of their seven losses have come by 3 points or less and they’ve played some tough teams on the road including this Oregon team.  Yes this is a rematch from a game played on December 15th.  That game was in Eugene and the Ducks won 66-54 – a game that BSU shot just 35% while Oregon hit 49% of their shots.  The Ducks also got some home cookin’ and made 9 more FT’s.  Despite that, the game was close throughout with OU leading by single digits most of the 2nd half.  The Ducks have played 2 true road games this year and lost them both.  On the other side, Boise has a fantastic home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena where they are 34-5 SU their last 39!  Very rarely do we get Boise as a home dog and we love this spot.  The Broncos win outright at home.

ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings.  The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +9 @ Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET – We are going contrarian here as most bettors will want to come back and bet Golden State off that humiliating loss to the Lakers on Christmas day. But knowing Vegas will adjust the number for that result we will grab the added value with the Blazers. Let’s consider this, earlier in November the Warriors hosted the Blazers and were favored by -1.5 points. Granted that was without Steph Curry but still this is a way over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Warriors are not playing as well this year as last and the numbers don’t lie. That doesn’t mean we don’t feel this team will be in the Finals this year, but they just aren’t playing well right now. Golden State last year on this date had the best home point differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG. This year that average has fallen to just +4.5PPG, 14th best in the league. The Warriors are 7-4 SU (4-7 ATS) off a loss this year but the margin of victory is just +4.1PPG which clearly won’t get a cover here.  Portland is also coming off a horrible showing in Utah and will bounce back with a better effort here. The Blazers are 8-6 SU off a beat this year with an average MOV of +1.4PPG. Portland does have a negative road differential of -6.4PPG on the season but that will get us the money here. The Trailblazers haven’t been an underdog of this size all season long. Portland was 3-0 ATS against the Warriors last year with two outright wins and they’ll keep this game close throughout.

ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.  

#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th.  Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP.  It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This game is being played in Kansas City so while it is much closer to KSU it’s not on their home court. The Wildcats will be playing their 2nd game with starting center who is major contributor averaging 14 PPG and 8 RPG.  In their first game without Wade earlier this week, the Cats really struggled with an average at best Southern Miss team.  KSU was down 16 points at home in the 2nd half and rallied for a 55-51 win.  They got a little bit lucky in that game as well as Southern Miss shot just 31% from the field and still almost won the game.  Kansas State’s offense has struggled all season long and we expect them to really have problems with Wade out as he is their main inside threat.  If they are forced to be a more perimeter oriented team, that’s not a good sign as they simply don’t shoot the ball very well from outside (just 30% from deep which is 290th nationally).  They also leave a lot of points at the line shooting just 65% as a team (11 for 20 vs USM).  The problem for KSU here is Vandy is a very good offensive team that can shoot the ball with accuracy.  They are effective inside the arc (55%) and outside the arc (36%).  The Commodores average 83 PPG and have topped 75 points in all but one game this season.  That’s a huge problem for a KSU team that will need to put points on the board to win this game and they struggle to do that (68 PPG average).  Vandy is a solid defensive team as well allowing teams an eFG% of just 45% (32nd nationally).  The Dores come in with a 3-1 record vs top 100 teams with their only loss in that range coming vs NC State who has proven to be a very good team taking Wisconsin to the wire on the road and beating a top 10 Auburn team this week.  We’ll take the much better shooting team here as KSU is simply a struggling team early in the season. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS

UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom).  That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses.  The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench.  They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points).  The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season.   Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team.  Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break.  OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago.  Ohio State won that game by 10 points.  The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense.  Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively.  On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation.  Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%.  Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago.  If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight.  They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule).  Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54).  All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points).  This team could easily have a much better record.   In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points.  Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings.  Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100.  That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points.  The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27.  They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites.  The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game.  Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally).  Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here.  Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record).  This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout.

ASA play on: #569 New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Pelicans have been alternating wins and losses their last ten games and are off a loss last time out. New Orleans most recent road game was played in Boston where they were a +2.5-point underdog and lost 100-113. But the line on that game is significant here as they are plus 6 more points in Milwaukee. The Pelicans have been a dog of 8 or more points just 4 times this year and they’ve covered three of those games. Granted, the Pels have two key injuries to Randle and Mirotic but Milwaukee is also without Ilyasova and possible Brogdon. Let’s make these comparisons. The Bucks were just -10.5-points at home over Cleveland, possibly the worst team in the league, last week and -7.5-points at home over Detroit. Now they are laying this number against the Pelicans? Doesn’t add up by our metrics. Milwaukee is off two straight road wins and have a much bigger game looming on deck in Boston, so they won’t play at their peak level tonight. The Bucks have struggled shooting of late as their last five games they’ve hit under 44% of their FG attempts which is drastically less than their season average of nearly 48%. New Orleans 

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET

Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record.  However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU.  Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans.  When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated.  Their 5 wins have all come by double digits.  USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here.  USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are.  They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points.  Not overly impressive.  All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th).  Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen.  Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen.  USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team.  The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition.  USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game.  USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot.  They should roll in this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team.  The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later.  ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74.  The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining.  They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes.  It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort.  Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas.  Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead.  They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th.  While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest.  Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%.  They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State.  These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch.  ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season.  We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC.  The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play.     

ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it.  The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons.  They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season.  The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule.  They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st.  That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion.  They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive.  The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11.  Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor.  Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season.  The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73).  Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS).  They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th).  They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court).  Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games.  They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally).  They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally.  The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s.  This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits.

ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.

ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern.  The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance.  That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally.  Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability.  The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle.  Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally.  They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8.  UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense.  Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories.  The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier.  The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70.  For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th.  GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation.  Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets.  They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win.  The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here.  Add another spread win to the ledger tonight.  Take UCF.

ASA play on: #704 Indiana Pacers -4 over Sacramento Kings, 7:05PM ET - We’re betting a number here not a team as the value clearly lies with Indiana in this match up. If you haven’t followed the NBA this year then you probably don’t know how well the Kings have played. They are 13-11 SU and are building momentum in the West. Sacramento is coming two straight road wins but they came against the two worst teams in the league, at Phoenix and Cleveland. Indiana has won two straight games since losing to this same Kings team in Sacramento on Dec. 1st. It was a close game down to the wire which the Kings pulled out at home 111-110. The interesting part about that game is the fact that Indiana was favored by -2-points THERE and are now laying just -4-points at home. Indiana is 7-4 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. The Kings do have a positive road differential but it hasn’t been a tough schedule away from home for them. They also have done well when playing without rest this year while the Pacers are 4-0 SU in that scheduling situation. Bet the best number on the board today...bet Indiana!

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day.  The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season.  They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year.  Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week.  It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch.  The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots.  However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc).  After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday.  This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot.  The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally).  Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep.  They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game.  In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win.  Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points.  The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year.  They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas.  This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70.  Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower.  This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them.  They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT.  Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far.  They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year.  The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th.  Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%).  Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home.  We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home.  With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4.  The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom.  They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5).  Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers.  They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena.  Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits.  Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams.  Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen.  They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th.  Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus.  The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant.  We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games.  Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner.  Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster.  Lay it with Purdue.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far.  Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena.  The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season.  They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS.  Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site.  The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense.  They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation).  That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally).  No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot.  The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home.  Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden.   Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot.  We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season.  Lay the small number with Oklahoma.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for Wisconsin.  They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game.  Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season.  That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville.  We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog.  These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected.  With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away.  On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers.  The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents.  They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency.  This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5).  Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction.  They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago.  The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin.  UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory.  Rutgers plus the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET

After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville.  MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT.  Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28.  So how did they lose?  The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line.  Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss.  They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday.  That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day.  It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year.  One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns.  MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season.  Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games.  Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively.  Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season.  Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game.  The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits.  MSU off a loss is a solid play here.

ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!

ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly.  This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd).  They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer.  Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th.  That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win.  Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent.  They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court.  Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier.  They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16.  Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games.  They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency.  Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend.  They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball.  UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one.  As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home.  The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip.  It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away.  In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago.  CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on.  Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be.  However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3.  The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado.  AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State).  Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally).  Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots.  They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win).  Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points).  Colorado gets the cover on the road here.