Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole.

#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4.

ASA play on 8* Memphis Grizzlies +2 over Golden State Warriors, 9:30 PM ET - This is a make-or-break game for the young Grizzlies, and we think they’ll respond with a home win over the Warriors. In fact, if they don’t win this game the series is over. Memphis showed great resilience in the opening round when they lost at home to Minnesota in the opener then bounced back with a 28-point win in Game 2 of that series. While Golden State hit several of their season averages and played as they were expected to, the Grizzlies did not, yet still kept the opener close. Memphis shot just 42% overall which was below their season average of 46.1%. Golden State did a great job on the boards in the opener but expect a swing in favor of Memphis in this category as they were the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA, Golden State was 10th. Defensively these two teams were essentially dead even in the regular season ranking 10th and 11th. Memphis was very good off a loss this season with a 20-9 SU overall record, 12-4 SU at home off a loss. The Grizzlies are also 8-3 ATS as a home dog this season with a +/- of +1.5PPG. It’s going to be another close game, but we like the home team to break through with a “W”.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here.

ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat –6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET Tuesday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat's defense has been even better in this series by holding the Hawks to 1.030PPP which is the second-best number in the postseason behind the Bucks. Miami has held Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young to a pair of his worst offensive showings all season long. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG during the regular season and have won both home games versus the Hawks by double-digits in this series. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG during the reg ssn. Miami has covered 7 of the last eight on this court against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Much has been made of Kevin Durant and his struggles in this series, but that is about to change here. Statistically, we are betting things return to normal for KD back in the friendly confines of Brooklyn. Durant shot just 9 of 24, 1 of 5 from 3 in Game 1. He then struggled in Game 2 by going 4 of 17 from the field and 1 of 2 from Deep. On the season he’s a 51.8% shooter from the filed and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Let’s also consider the Nets have average 1.160-points per possession in the two games even with his shooting woes. Boston has played extremely well in the first two games but now go on the road and face a veteran team in a must win situation. Don’t be misled by the Nets home numbers this season as Kyrie missed most of the home games due to Covid mandates. Brooklyn did go 7-2 SU their last nine home games and every one of those wins came by 5 or more points. We are banking Kyrie and KD will make a series of this yet and it has to start here. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Bucks look like the Playoff Bucks from a year ago where teams have made adjustments to stop their offensive flow, but coach Bud doesn’t make any counter moves. Now the Bucks need to find a way to win without their second-best scorer Khris Middleton who is out with a knee injury. The Bulls struggled in the opener managing just 86-points in Game 1 on 32.3% shooting. In Game 2 the Bulls found a rhythm on offense adn shot 49.4% from the field. After struggling in Game 1, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in Game 2 by hitting 16 of 31 (51.6%) and scored a career playoff-high 41 points. In Game 1, the Bulls' “Big 3” of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine went 21 of 71 (29.6%) from the field. In Game 2 those three players were 33 of 62 (53.2%). Milwaukee is going to miss Middleton’s scoring and we don’t see anyone stepping up to fill the void. In Game 1 it wasn’t a case of the Bucks playing great, as we touched on, the Bulls couldn’t buy a basket. Milwaukee won a close game with Middleton going 5 of 20 from the field for 11-points. Chicago shot 48.5% at home this season and the atmosphere/energy will be high tonight in Game 3. The Bulls were 27-14 SU at home in the regular season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. Grab the points with the home dog.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +10 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - We are betting Game 2 is going to be a dog fight and we like the double-digits with the Bulls. Game 1 of this series was ugly to say the least. The Bucks averaged .93-points per possession in the opener, the Bulls .85PPP. Those numbers were well below both teams' season averages of 1.14PPP (Bucks) and 1.12PPP (Bulls). The Bulls had an especially bad shooting night at 32% which is WELL below their season average of 48% which was the 3rd best shooting percentage in the NBA this season. Chicago also hit 36.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season but hit just 7 of 37 from deep or 19%. The Bucks didn’t shoot overly well either but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bucks were one of the worst home favorites in the NBA this season and their +/- at home wasn’t great at +4.2PPG which is down from +8.9PPG a year ago. Milwaukee was 14-24 ATS at home laying points this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +4.9PPG. Consider this, the Bulls have been double-digit dogs just two times this season and they are 2-0 ATS. Chicago has covered 8 of the last eleven here and will keep this game close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - It’s do-or-die here for the Grizzlies after the opening series loss at home in Game 1. The Grizzlies didn’t look interested from the opening tip and thought they were going to cruise to a victory. The Wolves started hot, gained confidence, and played well throughout. We don’t see Minnesota shooting 50% in Game 2 or outrebounding the Grizzlies by a +11 margin. Minny shot well above their season average from beyond the arc, Memphis shot well below. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-11 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-12 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. The Wolves were 21-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-4 SU at home off a loss this season.

ASA play on 8* Miami Heat -7 vs Atlanta Hawks, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - Game 1 was a Heat blowout from start to finish. Miami held Trae Young to 1 of 12 field goals for the night, while Duncan Robinson made 8 of his 9 3-point attempts. We don’t see a lot changing in Game 2 as the Heat have multiple weapons on offense while the Hawks are limited beyond Young. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. Miami was 30-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 6 of the last seven here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -5 @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - I am going contrarian here as the numbers tell us its not time to use the Zig-Zag theory in this series. The Jazz got off to a slow start in Game 1 with an offensive efficiency rating or .91 in the 1st quarter which is well below their season average of 1.160PPP. For the game the Jazz shot 43% as a team overall and 32% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 47.1% and 36% which both rank in the top 11 of the NBA. Utah has had some issues with closing out games recently but the confidence gained in the opener should carry over here. Dallas averaged 1.010PPP in Game 1 which is lower than their season statistics but it’s still higher than anticipated with the absence of Luka Doncic. The Mavs will struggle to score again in this contest as Brunson and Dinwiddie can’t carry a team like Luka does. As we mentioned previously, the Jazz are one of five teams with offensive and defensive efficiency numbers good enough to win it all this year. Back them here as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 1 PM ET Sunday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat put up those impressive statistics with a roster that was hit harder than most with Covid issues. The Hawks have won two emotional games in the play-in contest and will have a hard time getting up for a third big game in a row. Not to mention they lost their starting center Capela versus the Cavs. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. These two teams met on April 8th in a meaningless game for the Heat (had sown up the #1 seed) and a purposeful game for Atlanta, yet the Heat won by 4-points. This time around it’s going to be much worse, and we call for a BLOWOUT! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 5 of the last six here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Sat 3:30 PM ET - We’re not sure everyone fully realizes just how good this Grizzlies team is and we feel they could make a serious run in the West. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-10 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-11 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. Minnesota is coming off a big home win over the Clippers and celebrated like they won the NBA Finals and we expect a letdown here. The Wolves were 20-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and the home team has won all four meetings between these two teams this season by an average of 16PPG.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We like this situation for several reasons. First the win/loss results of each teams play-in games with the Clippers home off a loss and the Pelicans on the road off a win. Despite not having their two best players for portions of the season (Leonard has been out all year) the Clippers own a 25-16 SU record at home this season with a +/- of +2.5PPG. Again, despite injuries the Clippers are a respectable 22-19 SU off a loss this season, 11-8 SU at home in that situation. L.A. has played well in Paul George’s return going 7-2 SU their last nine games allowing 109 or less points defensively in 5 straight games. The Clippers hold a decisive advantage over the Pelicans defensively with a unit that ranks 11th in PPG allowed, 6th in FG% defense and 7th in 3-point percentage. Comparatively, the Pelicans rank 13th in points allowed, 24th in opponents FG% and 26th defending the 3-point line. Offensively these two teams are similar and we would even lean towards the Clippers on that end of the floor with the return of George and Powell. Both teams rank in the low 20’s in scoring and overall FG% but the Clippers are by far the better 3-point shooting team at 37.4% compared to the Pels 33.2%. We like the Clippers who have covered 5 of their last six as a Chalk, against a Pelicans teams that is 1-5 ATS their last six against a team with an above .500 record.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have played really well since they traded for CJ McCollum shortly before the All-Star break. Since the break the Pelicans are just 13-10 SU but they have the 6th best average point differential in the league at +4.7PPG. In that same time frame, they own the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings (1.181PPP) and defensive efficiency rating (1.133PPP) and they did that with Brandon Ingram missing several games. The young Spurs have played well also but they are hovering around league average in both OEFF and DEFF for the season. For the year the Spurs are 18-23 SU on the road but do own a +/- of +0.4PPG. This game comes down to the veteran leadership of McCollum, Ingram and Valanciunas who are better than the top 3 for the Spurs. New Orleans by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 vs LA Clippers, Tuesday 9:30 PM ET - Granted the Clippers recently got Paul George back and Norman Powell but the Timberwolves have been the better team all season long. Remember we predicted the Wolves would go over their win total this season and we will continue to back them here. Karl Anthony Towns has been outstanding this season averaging 24.6PPG and 9.8 rebounds per game along with 1.1 blocks and 3.6 assists per game. The Clippers have won 5 straight games but those wins need to be taken with a grain of salt. They beat two horrible teams in the Thunder and Kings that were tanking. Phoenix was off a big win the night before against the Lakers and were locked into the #1 seed. The game before they beat the #9 seed Pelicans and prior to that they beat a Bucks team that sat their starters. So don’t be fooled by that current streak. Minnesota was pretty much settled into their playoff position and were focused on staying healthy and fresh for the postseason. The Wolves are far superior offensively ranking 8th in offensive efficiency compared to the Clippers who rank 24th. Defensively the Clippers hold an advantage ranking 8th in DEFF but the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think with the Wolves 14th. Minnesota is much better at home defensively allowing 1.074-points per possession compared to their season PPP allowed of 1.118PPP. Minny is 26-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5PPG. The Clippers are 17-24 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is 19th in the NBA. Throw out history here and simply bet the team that is currently better. Bet Minnesota!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Warriors still have some incentive to win here as they lock up the #3 seed in the West with a win. The Pelicans are locked into the 9 seed and will host San Antonio in a play-in game. Both teams played last night but the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in four days and are in their 6th game in a 10-day span and rest right now is more important than anything. New Orleans will give their bench players (which isn’t good to begin with, 8th worst in bench scoring) extended playing time here. The Warriors will play starters less in this game, but they have a bench that has produced the 11th most points per game in the NBA. In general, when playing unrested the Pels are 3-11 SU with an average +/- of -6.4PPG while the Warriors are 9-5 SU +4.5PPG. New Orleans ranks in the 20’s in most key defensive categories, the Warriors rank top 5. Offensively it isn’t close either as the Pels are 21st in scoring, 21st in 3PT% and 27th in 3PT%. Golden State is 15th in scoring, 12th in FG% and 9th in 3PT%. This is a short number and we’ll lay it with the road team!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well here so we know what kind of effort to expect from both teams. Scheduling clearly favors the Bulls here who are rested but off three straight losses and looking to rebound off a blowout loss to the Celtics. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four days. The Hornets beat the Magic last night but had suffered a pair of crushing losses to the Heat and 76ers where they gave up 144-points in each. The Bulls three recent losses came against the Celtics, Bucks and Heat who are the three best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls have been solid at home all season long with a 27-13 SU record and a +/- of +2.8PPG. The Hornets are a respectable 20-20 SU away with a +/- of -1PPG. Charlotte is 1-13 SU on the season when playing without rest, 3-11 ATS minus nearly -6PPG. The Bulls have struggled covering numbers of late but this line is so low we’re basically just asking them to win. Easy call on the Bulls!

ASA top play on 9* LA Clippers +1.5 vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Here’s the deal. The Suns are locked into the #1 seed in the Western Conference and overall. They had lost two straight prior to facing the Lakers on Tuesday night. They started and played regulars against the Lakers as it gave them a chance to help eliminate L.A. so they don’t face them in the playoffs. But expect a night off for the regulars against the Clippers on Wednesday. The Clippers have been without Paul George for a large portion of the season but he’s back now and they are trying to build continuity before the start of the playoffs. These two teams are very similar defensively and rate two of the better defenses in the NBA. The Suns have much better offensive numbers, but the Clippers have missed Kawhi Leonard for the entire season and George for most of it. The Clippers have been home underdogs just 8 times since the start of the 2020 season and they’ve covered six of those games. This is a tough game to find statistical support for the Clippers ,but the situation couldn’t be better for the home team here. Grab the points!

#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4 over North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We’ve been on Carolina each of the past 2 games and cashed but feel this is where their run ends. First off the situation for the Tar Heels is really tough. It’s almost as if they just played their National Championship game 48 hours ago beating Duke in the biggest game ever in that storied rivalry. There was such hype and pressure on the players and coaches entering that game and then on top of that an intense back and forth game where no team led by more than 7 points. UNC has played with nearly zero bench and all 5 starters in that game topped 33 minutes. One of their top players Armando Bacot (22 rebounds) injured his ankle in the 2nd half, came back but was still noticeably limping which could be an issue tonight. He will play but the Heels may have to dig deeper in their bench at times tonight to get him a break. Especially since we expect an extremely fast paced game with both teams loving to play up tempo. KU rolled over Villanova 81-65 and were able to spread their minutes out a bit more with 7 guys playing double digit minutes. Kansas has played the tougher schedule (3rd highest SOS nationally) and they have the better offense (6th adjusted efficiency) and defense (17th adjusted efficiency). Their defense has been playing at the top of their game down the stretch holding 4 of their 5 opponents in the NCAA to 65 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to that same number or less. Even though we were on UNC on Saturday Duke (felt +4 was definitely too high) they were a bit lucky to win that game outright. Duke took 8 more shots but made just 22% of their 3’s (averaged 37%) and only 60% of their FT’s (averaged 74%). We felt the Devils shooting overall would regress in that game but didn’t expect 5 of 22 from deep. The Jayhawks were more than comfortable playing in this huge venue on Saturday making 54% of their shots and 77% of their FT’s vs a very good Nova defense. They most likely won’t shoot those percentages tonight but if they do it will be a runaway. Even if they regress more toward their averages in this one, they still win and cover this game in our opinion. The last 15 years the winner of the National Championship game has had a margin of at least +6 points 12 times. We like Kansas to get that win tonight.

#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +4.5 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - The way these 2 teams are playing at the moment we have them rated almost dead even. This number says that Duke is 4 points better on a neutral court which we disagree with. It could be argued that UNC is actually playing better right now. In the NCAA they beat Marquette by 30+ points, beat #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game UNC led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7, and then crushed a red hot St Peter’s team that had beaten Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue leading up to that game. Duke struggled with Michigan State (7th rated team in the Big 10) trailing late and were down much of the game vs Texas Tech and won a tight one. The Heels have had more clean wins so to speak in this tourney vs teams that have an average rank of 42 in Ken Pom ratings compared to Duke’s opponents who have an average rank of 56. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance covering by an average of 15 PPG while Duke is 3-1 ATS covering by an average of 2.5 PPG. The Devils have been shooting absolute lights out and we just don’t see that continuing here in New Orleans Superdome, a huge venue. They have taken 36 fewer shots than their opponents in the NCAA tourney but they’ve topped 50% from the field in every game and hit a ridiculous 54% for the entire tourney. Duke is a very good shooting team (48%) but if they don’t shoot lights out in every game so far they most likely aren’t here right now. The Heels have shot 10% points lower in the tourney (44%) and they’ve pretty much dominated every team they’ve played despite that. These two rivals split their 2 meetings this year with each winning on the other’s home court. The most recent was the regular season finale at Duke where the Devils had all the reason in the world to win that game sending Coach K out with a win in his final home game. UNC dominated and won by 13 in arguably the toughest atmosphere of the season in college hoops. Speaking of currently being undervalued, the Tar Heels have won 4 in a row outright as a dog winning @ VaTech, @ Duke, and beating Baylor and UCLA in the Dance. Lastly, much more pressure on Duke here to win this thing for Coach K and UNC is sort of playing with house money making it to the Final 4 as an 8 seed. We’ll take the points in a game we feel is dead even.

#893 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with FSU as a 5 point chalk which is exactly where we had the game power rated. It has since dropped so we’ll take the value with the road team. Fresno got to this Championship game by rolling over a solid Southern Utah team on Monday by 19 points and holding them to just 48 points. CC won @ South Alabama by 1 point in OT but is wasn’t a full strength opponent. South Alabama played that game without their 2 leading scorers, Manning and Chandler, who combine to average 31 PPG, 7 RPG, and 6 APG. Even with that the Chanticleers needed a 3 pointer with only a few seconds remaining to send the game to OT where the won. If USA was at full strength, we’re pretty confident in saying CC wouldn’t even be here. They are playing this game at home, however they lost 6 games at home this season including 5 conference games (Sun Belt) so it’s not a huge advantage. If we use the Ken Pom ratings here, Fresno will be the highest rated team Coastal has played all season. Not one Sun Belt team ranked inside the top 130 and Fresno is currently ranked 78th. FSU has the much better overall numbers with a points per possession differential of +10.7 per 100 possessions compared to Coastal which is +1.0 in the same category. Consider that and the fact that Fresno played the MUCH tougher schedule (ranked 100 spots higher in SOS). The Bulldogs rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3rd nationally in PPG allowed at 58. Coastal Carolina has faced ONE top 100 defense all season (adjusted efficiency) so this will be a huge step up in what they are used to seeing. CC is also loose with the ball (307th in TO %) which will be an issue vs the best defense they’ve faced this season. Lastly, on top of all that, Fresno will have the best player on the floor in 7-foot Orlando Robinson (19 PPG, 8 RPG) who Ken Pom has rated as the 7th best player in the country. We don’t have to worry about motivation here. This is the Basketball Classic Championship game so we expect both teams to bring their A game. Fresno’s best is better than Coastal’s best so we’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a very big game for both teams as they jockey for better playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs currently hold the 7th spot in the East, the Hawks are 10th but only 3 games separate the two teams. The Cavs are struggling right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games and injuries have a lot to do with it. Cleveland has been without All-Star Jarrett Allen and now are playing without Evan Mobley. Those two are the Cavs best two frontline players and its showed in recent games as they’ve been outscored by 68-points in the paint the past three games. Atlanta has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five and are making a strong late season push. The Hawks have won 8 of their last nine home games and one of those wins came against this same Cavs team 124-116. The Cavs had Mobley for that game and he grabbed 10 rebounds and scored 22-points. The Hawks have a +5.8PPG average MOV at home this season, while the Cavs have a negative differential in their last five games of -6PPG. The healthy Hawks get a big home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +3 at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are coming off opposite results with the Raptors coming off a big OT win over the Celtics, while the Timberwolves are off a bad loss in Boston. The Wolves have lost 3 of their last four games but those beats came against the Celtics, Mavericks and Suns. Minnesota is 19-8 SU their last 27 games and a team nobody wants to face in the Western Conference playoffs. Toronto is 9-2 SU their last eleven games which has me wondering why they are such a low home favorite here. The Wolves have the 10th best road margin of victory in the NBA at +.5PPG and they’ve covered 5 of their last six away from home. Minnesota is 16-17 SU off a loss but have covered 8 of their last nine in that situation. Toronto is just 2-6 ATS their last eight as a home favorite and really struggled beating a Celtics team the other night that was without Tatum, Brown, Williams and Horford. Grab the points with Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -6.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Obviously, the Spurs have everything to play for right now as they still have a shot at getting into the post season. With just 20 wins the Rockets season is essentially done. The line on this game opened -5.5 points and was immediately bet up by the Sharps. There is still value and we’ll take the road favorite. The Spurs are significantly better offensively than the Rockets who rank 19th in scoring, 22nd in FG%, 21st in 3-point% and 30th in rebounding. The Spurs rank 8th in scoring, 12th in shooting and 17th in 3-point% with the 9th best offensive rebounding average in the league. Defensively the Spurs aren’t great ranking mid-20’s in most key defensive categories but the Rockets are far worse ranking 30th in points allowed and opponents FG%. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 4 of five. Houston has won 2 in a row but both were against Portland. The Rockets are just 1-4 SU their last five home games and they have the 3rd worst +/- at home in the NBA at minus -6.8PPG. The Spurs have drubbed this Rockets team in the two most recent meetings by 30 and 25-points respectively. Lay the points!

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -8 over St Peters, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We took Purdue over St Peters on Friday night and lost but the value here on UNC is simply too good to pass up. Purdue was just favored by 13 points over the Peacocks on Friday and now UNC is laying only in the -8 or -8.5 range? We have North Carolina and Purdue power rated almost dead even but the line is 5 points lower than just 2 days ago? St Peter’s was also an 18 point dog vs Kentucky just last week! We realize they are playing well and quite frankly WAY above their heads when compared to their season numbers but this adjustment is too much. We realize STP is playing well but what about the Heels? They’ve won 9 of their last 10 and many convincingly. They won by double digits @ Duke to close out the regular season and beat UVA by 20 in the ACC tourney. Once UNC hit the Dance they’ve beaten Marquette by 32, #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game they led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, and then just beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7. UNC will cream St Peter’s on the boards just as Purdue did (+16 rebound margin). The Boilers problem on Friday were turnovers (23% TO rate) and poor 3 point shooting (23%). We expect UNC to handle the pressure much better than Purdue and they’ve been hot from 3 hitting just over 37% in the tourney. The Peacocks still remain by far the worst offensive team left in the tourney. They rank 216th in adjusted efficiency (next worst team in Elite eight ranks 53rd) and they rank 253rd in eFG%. They will struggle to score vs UNC’s length inside so they’ll need to be red hot from deep to stay in this game. We love the STP story and they are playing very well but this is a tough match up vs a highly talented team playing at their peak level right now. That along with the value in the number here have us on North Carolina.

#641 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +4 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - Duke was a bit fortunate with their win over Texas Tech on Thursday. They won 78-73 which was their largest lead of the entire game. The Blue Devils shot 52% from the field and made 10 more FT’s and still only led for 7 minutes from the 7:00 minute mark of the first half through the end of the game (final 27 minutes of game time). In their previous game Duke shot 57% vs Michigan State and made 5 more FT’s yet trailed late before pulling out a win. So they shot lights out both games yet trailed both with under 3:00 minutes remaining. The Arkansas defense has been great in this tourney including holding the #1 offense in America (Gonzaga) to just 68 points on 38% shooting on Thursday. Nothing new for the Razors as they rank 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. We have to expect with Duke playing another top notch defense their offensive shooting percentage stays below 50% here which should make this game tight. It could be argued that since mid January, the Razorbacks have played as well as anyone in the country. They have won 18 of their last 21 games and 2 of those losses have come by 4 points or less. 10 of those 18 wins came vs NCAA tourney teams. Duke was struggling entering this tourney losing their home finale vs UNC and then losing in the ACC tourney vs Va Tech and as we said they were close to losing each of their last 2 games. Arkansas just beat who most consider the best team in the country despite not playing great offensively. They made just 40% of the shots, 28% of their 3’s and made 6 fewer FT’s than the Zags. That’s how well their defense has been playing. They have been an underdog 5 times this season and covered all 5 by an average of almost 9 PPG. We expect this to be close throughout and we have to take the points in this one.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 5 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround revenge game for the Spurs who were blown out by the Pelicans on March 18th, 91-124. Coach Popp was ejected in the second quarter after the Spurs scored just 10-points in the 1st. This game has huge playoff implications as both are fighting to stay in the top 10 in the West. After the loss to the Pels the Spurs bounced back with a win over the Warriors then blew out the Blazers. The Pelicans are off a big home win over the Bulls but are 1-3 SU their last four at home. New Orleans is 17-20 SU at home and below average in +/- of +1.1PPG. San Antonio is 15-21 SU on the road but they are 15th in the league in average MOV at +0.2PPG. The Spurs have covered 6 straight in New Orleans and are 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings overall. Grab the points.

#635 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence +7.5 over Kansas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We think Kansas is a flawed #1 seed. They are very good offensively but on defense they are just OK for a team looking to win a National Title. They rank outside the top 25 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. That being said, we loved their situation last week facing a Creighton team that was without 2 of their top 3 players including 7 foot center Kalkbrenner who was injured in the Jays opening round NCAA game. That left a huge hole in the middle both offensively and defensively for Creighton and forced an already ultra thin team to start a player who usually plays limited minutes (Feazell) for the first time this season. Even with all of those advantages the Jayhawks struggled to get the win never leading by double digits. Providence is a tough, veteran group (5 senior starters) that can absolutely give Kansas a run here. The analytics guys have been pounding on Providence all year as being lucky and winning too many close games. Much of that is true, however the fact is they know how to win the close games and they’ve done it on a regular basis. They won the Big East regular season and have only 5 losses all season, 2 of which were down to the wire games vs a #2 seed Villanova. The Friar defense has played fantastic in the Dance completely shutting down a South Dakota State offense that was the #1 three point shooting team in the nation. The Jackrabbits scored just 57 points in that game, their lowest total of the season. Following that win they faced a red hot Richmond team who had won 5 straight taking out Dayton, Davidson in the A10 tourney and Iowa in the NCAA. Providence crushed the Spiders by 28 holding them to 51 points. They are a slow paced team (283rd in adjusted tempo) that will make this a half court game. KU likes to speed the game up but will have a problem here doing that unless they get out to a huge lead which we do not expect. When facing the slower paced teams in the Big 12, Kansas had some trouble. The 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 12 were Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa State. The Jayhawks were 7-2 SU vs those teams, however all but one of those wins were decided by single digits. We expect a tight game in this one and we’ll take the generous points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -3.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - We love to back elite NBA teams when they are off embarrassing losses which is the case here for Utah. The Jazz are coming off a humbling 97-125 loss against the Celtics on Wednesday night and should rebound here with a big effort. After facing the #1 ranked defense in the NBA the Jazz step down here to face a Charlotte team that is 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.135-points per possession. Utah is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and they couldn’t buy a basket from deep against the Celtics but should have success here versus a Hornets D that allows 35.9% which is 21st in the league. Utah ranks top 7 in the NBA in points scored, FG% offense, 3-PT% and rebounding. They are also top 11 defensively in those same categories. While the Hornets are top 13 in most key offensive categories, they rank 28th in points allowed 19th in FG% D, 21st in 3-PT% and 29th in defensive rebounding. Charlotte has won 5 of their last six games but are coming off a loss to the Knicks. Charlotte doesn’t possess a great home court advantage which is why they are 19-18 SU at home with a below average +/- of +0.4PPG. We like the bounce back factor with the Jazz in this one.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -12.5 over St Peters, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Here is the end of the line for the Peacocks. The line may seem a bit high at 12.5 but we’re actually getting some value on Purdue based on St Peters Cinderella run. The Peacocks faced Kentucky to open the NCAA tournament and they were 18 point underdogs in that game. Our power ratings would have UK favored by just 2 over Purdue on a neutral court so that tells us if this game was played last week we were probably going to see the Boilers as a 15 or 16 point favorite. STP’s offense has been below average all season long and played well above their expectations in the first 2 games of the NCAA. They averaged 1.13 and 1.09 PPP in those two wins over Kentucky and Murray State but their season average vs subpar competition for the most part was just 1.00 PPP. Purdue will be the best offense the Peacocks have faced this season. The Boilers rank 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3rd in 2 point FG%, 3rd in 3 point FG%, and 7th in scoring at 80 PPG. To put that in perspective, the MAAC, St Peter’s conference, has a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 170 in offensive efficiency. That was Iona who beat the Peacocks both times they met this season. STP doesn’t have the size to hang in this game. Purdue is huge. They have 2 very good inside threats in 7 foot 4 Ivey and 6 foot 10 Williams. STP’s biggest player in the regular rotation is 6 foot 8 he is a freshman. Purdue should dominate the interior which will open up their 3 point shooters which are deadly (39% as a team). They should also completely control the boards on both ends limiting St Peter’s to one shot on the vast majority of possessions while gathering offensive boards to give themselves extra possessions as well. On top of that, St Peter’s fouls A LOT so Purdue should live at the FT line where they hit 71%. The Peacocks had their nice opening weekend but it ends here and Purdue runs away with this one.

#629 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -1 over Duke, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - We knew Tech would come out as a favorite in this game and we knew the masses would flock to Duke as a dog. There is a reason Texas Tech is favored. They are the better team and a bad match up for this young Blue Devil team. The Raiders are a veteran team that plays very physical which is a rough brand of basketball that Duke isn’t used to. TT ranks #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, they create TO’s on almost 24% of possessions, and they are a very good rebounding team. They have big advantages in all of those categories in this game. Duke’s offense thrives in transition but Tech will make this a half court game. Even if the Devils are able to get some up tempo at times, the Raiders are great at transition defense allowing the lowest eFG% in the country in transition (43%). TT is also fantastic defensively inside the arc allowing the 3rd lowest % of points from 2-point land. If Duke wins this game, it will be because they get red hot from outside the 3 point line. We’ll take our chances there as Tech is also very solid at defending the 3 allowing 31%. The Red Raider defense gets the accolades but their offense is solid and underrated. They rank 46th nationally in adjusted efficiency and they are fantastic as scoring inside the arc hitting 55% of their shots (22nd nationally) and scoring over 55% of their points from 2-point range (76th nationally). Duke’s defense has been shaky to say the least allowing 75 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve allowed at least 1.10 PPP in 6 of their last 8 games. To put that in perspective, Texas Tech allows 0.84 PPP adjusted efficiency on the season! The Devils haven’t faced a defense anywhere near this good since November (Gonzaga & Kentucky). There is not a single ACC defense ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency. Lots of pressure on this young team to get it done in Coach K’s final run. They couldn’t do it in their home finale getting rolled by UNC. They couldn’t do it in the ACC tourney getting smoked by Va Tech in the final. We don’t think they’re tough enough to get it done here and we’ll call for Texas Tech to move onto the Elite 8.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -13 over Youngstown State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - YSU has played the 2nd easiest schedule in the entire country this season. Fresno State will be just the 3rd top 100 team (per Ken Pom) that Youngstown has faced the entire season. The first 2 were vs West Virginia (30 point loss) and Penn State (16 point loss). We think the Penguins will have huge problems offensively in this game. Their overall offensive stats aren’t terrible as they rank 189th in efficiency. The problem with that is, they’ve faced a terrible set of defenses this year. YSU resides in the Horizon League which has ZERO top 100 defenses (efficiency wise) and ONE defense ranked inside the top 200. That means in their 22 conference games, 20 were vs defenses ranked lower than 200 in adjusted efficiency. Looking at the season as a whole, the Penguins faced 2 defenses this year (in 33 games) that were ranked inside the top 100. They scored 52 and 59 points in those games. Fresno State’s defense is very good ranking 3rd nationally allowing just 58 PPG and 33rd nationally in efficiency. On the other end of the court, FSU should have a field day vs YSU’s defense which ranks 311th in efficiency. To put that in perspective not ONE team in the Mountain West Conference has a defense that ranks 300 or lower. The only one that is close in San Jose State and Fresno won all 3 meetings with the Spartans have an average of 17.3 PPG scoring an average of 74 PPG in those games. That may not seem like a huge number but when your defense allows teams to score in the 50’s, getting to 70+ points gets Fresno in the “easy win” column. Fresno beat Eastern Washington in game 1 of this tourney by 9 points but they led by 18 with just 2 minutes remaining. YSU struggled with a bad Morgan State team (won by 5) that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers in that game. Long travel for a Youngstown team that will be overmatched here.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is clearly higher than it should be because of the Celtics current hot streak. That makes it a great opportunity to sell high and buy low with Utah. We must acknowledge Boston’s 20-3 SU run and won’t pretend that it doesn’t exist, but this is a solid spot to fade them. Utah doesn’t have a great overall road record at 19-16 SU but they do own the 5th best average margin of victory at +3.3PPG. Boston has a 24-12 SU home record with a differential of +5.5PPG. These two teams own two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Jazz top 10 in points allowed FG% D and 3-point % D and rank #1 in rebounding. The Celtics are 1st in points allowed 1st in FG% D and 2nd in 3-point% but 14th in rebounding. Utah holds a huge advantage offensively with a unit that ranks top 6 in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. In comparison the Celtics rank 16th or worse in the three main offensive categories and 5th in offensive rebounding. Utah is a solid 15-11 SU when coming off a loss, while the C’s are 8-14-1 ATS when off a win. In a few of their recent road games the Jazz have been favored over the Nets, Knicks and Mavericks and now they are getting an inflated number here. Will you be surprised in the Jazz win this outright? I won’t!

#611 ASA PLAY ON 8* Vanderbilt +4 over Xavier, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We have this game handicapped at dead even so we like the value with Vandy getting more than a full possession here. Xavier will most likely be without one of their top players Paul Scruggs who averages 12 PPG, 4 RPG, and 4 APG. He was injured in Sunday’s win over Florida and was in crutches following the game so the chance of him playing 48 hours later is slim to none. The Musketeers struggled in their NIT opener squeaking by Cleveland State despite the Vikings making just 1 three pointer in 12 attempts. After that win they faced a Florida team over the weekend that is in a bit of disarray with their coach leaving for Georgia just prior to the NIT tipping off. Vandy took care of a solid Belmont team and they topped Dayton, the 2nd best team in the A10 behind Davidson. The Commodores will have the best player on the floor in this game with Scotty Pippen Jr. He is coming off a 32 point performance vs a Dayton defense that was ranked 2nd in the A10 in efficiency. Vandy has been undervalued all season long as they continue to put up winning spread numbers. They have covered 8 straight as an underdog and their spread record on the season is a money making 22-13. Xavier is the opposite. After a very solid start they were terrible down the stretch losing 8 of their last 10 games before entering the NIT. They have 5 home losses on the season and they’ve covered just 4 of their last 15 as a favorite. Vanderbilt is better defensively, they create more turnovers, and they are the better 3 point shooting team. This one has the makings of an upset and we’ll grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 versus Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the scenario here with the Bulls coming off a game last night and the Bucks coming off a horrible loss a few nights ago in Minnesota. There is value in this number. Earlier this month these two teams squared off in Chicago and the oddsmaker set a spread of Bucks -5.5-points. Now the Bucks are laying 6-points at home! Chicago has not faired well against the leagues elite teams and are currently 0-5 ATS their last five versus teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. On the season the Bulls are 4-18 SU against the top 10 teams in the league. The Bucks have been terrible as a home favorite this season, but they have covered 5 of their last six as a chalk. The Bucks have a +/- of 4.6PPG, the Bulls have a negative road differential of -2.9PPG. Given the circumstances and the fact the Bucks just laid a similar number in Chicago (and won by 6-points) we like them here by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hornets have been a “hot or cold” team all season long and right now they are currently “hot” with 4 straight wins and covers. Included in this four game stretch is a 142-120 win over the Pelicans as a -3.5-point favorite in New Orleans. The Pels did play without McCollum and Ingram in that game and will again be without Ingram their leading scorer here. New Orleans is coming off a road win yesterday in Atlanta and also playing their 3rd game in a four-day span. Last night saw their starters all get extended minutes and the bench is short the way it is. When playing without rest this season the Pels are 2-10 SU with an average loss margin of -8PPG. The Pelicans aren’t great off a win either with a 6-11 SU road record in that situation. The Hornets last four wins have all come by double digits and they own the 5th best average point differential in the NBA over the last five games. Charlotte has covered 6 straight as a favorite and they get a big 10+ point win in this one.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We lost going against ND on Friday vs a Bama team that looked lethargic and played a terrible game. On top of that, the Tide lost arguably their best player (Quinerly) just 3 minutes into the game. The Irish were able to outlast Alabama by shooting 54% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. They won’t get anywhere near those numbers in this game vs Texas Tech who has the #1 defensive team in the nation (adjusted efficiency). The Raiders are rested after destroying Montana State in round 1 and they are a very poor match up for the Irish. Tech is a dominant rebounding team that is very physical. That’s a problem for Notre Dame who is not a physical team, nor a good rebounding team, AND they are playing their 3rd game in 5 days including long travel (2,200 miles) after their first 4 in double OT win on Wednesday. We expect ND to have tired legs in this one which is one thing you absolutely don’t want when playing Texas Tech who will be up in the Irish shorts defensively the entire game. In their win over the Tide, Bama actually controlled the offensive boards and pushed Notre Dame into a 25% TO rate. Those 2 things led to 10 more shot attempts for the Crimson Tide but a poor shooting night after losing Quinerly was their downfall. If ND turned it over 25% of the time vs Bama (204th nationally in defensive TO %) they are in huge trouble here vs the Red Raiders who turn teams over 24% of the time (10th nationally). Between that and the big rebounding edge we expect here, Tech should create a lot of extra possessions. If ND doesn’t shoot lights out again, they are in trouble in this game. With tired legs and facing a great defense, we anticipate they won’t. It’s the end of the road for the Irish and we look for Tech to win this by double digits.

#797 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s +2.5 over UCLA, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - UCLA steps into this game after a physical, down to the wire defensive battle with Akron. The Bruins escaped with a 57-53 win in that game. The Bruins trailed for all but 3 minutes in the 2nd half of that game despite making 4 more three point shots and 4 more FT’s. St Mary’s should come in rested after their whitewashing of the Indiana Hoosiers (our Top Game on Thursday). The Gaels won by 29 points and they were able to spread out their minutes with 12 different players seeing court time. Thursday was St Mary’s first game since March 8th and they are facing a UCLA team playing their 5th game in 10 days. As we wrote on Thursday vs Indiana, the Gaels have size and defend the interior very well which is where UCLA likes to operate. They also won’t be dominated on the boards as St Mary’s ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive rebounding so very few extra possession off the boards for the Bruins. Both defenses are outstanding with STM ranking 9th nationally in efficiency and UCLA 14th. On offense both teams hit their 3 point attempts at 35% but the Gaels are better inside the arc and at the FT line where they make 76% as a team. We have these teams rated basically dead even. The strength of schedules were very close with UCLA a slight edge. Each team went 1-2 vs the #1 seed which resided in their respective conferences (Gonzaga & Arizona). STM was 7-4 SU vs tourney teams and UCLA was 6-4. Our power ratings have UCLA as a 1 point favorite so we’ll take the value on St Mary’s here.

#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET - Michigan came from 15 down vs Colorado State on Thursday to pick up a first round win. They did so without starting PG Jones (11 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG) who is out with a concussion but it will be tough to compete in this one without him. He did not make the trip to Indy and they’re hoping he can play next week if Michigan makes it that far which we project they will not. The Wolverines shot over 50% vs CSU and the Rams made just 35% of their shots vs a Wolverine defense that hasn’t been great this year (11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). Michigan also made 14 more FT’s in the game and those 2 things tell us this game should have been a blowout and it wasn’t. Now the Wolverines face a lock down UT defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. It’s a Vols team that is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now winning 13 of their last 14 with their only loss coming @ Arkansas by 6. In the SEC tourney Tennessee topped a top notch Kentucky team by 7 (led by 14 in the 2nd half) and then rolled a red hot A&M team by 15 in the final. While Michigan had a fairly tough opening round game vs CSU, they trailed at half and really only played 6 guys decent minutes, UT is rested after rolling Longwood by 30+ and played 8 guys double digit minutes. These 2 both played top 10 schedules this year but UT is +26 points per 100 possessions vs their opponents while Michigan is +16 pints per 100 possessions. Tennessee might just be the best team in the country right now. The much better D playing a less than 100% Michigan team is a take for us.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:10 PM ET - Yes, we know just how hot the Mavericks have been, but we like the situation to fade them here. Dallas is coming off a huge last second win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night and we expect a letdown here. Philly is coming off a win in Cleveland, but they didn’t play well so expect a rebound here back at home. The Mavs were recently a +6.5-point underdog at Boston which means this line is off by a few points. Philadelphia was a home favorite of -3.5-points two games ago at home against Denver who rates higher than the Mavs in our power index. The Mavs don’t have anyone that can match up with Joel Embiid who is scoring nearly 30PPG with 11.4 rebounds per game this season. This is a great opportunity to back a low home favorite that is underpriced given the circumstances.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -3.5 over Notre Dame, Friday at 4:15 PM ET - Talk about a rough spot for ND. Not only did they play a double OT game on Wednesday that didn’t end until after midnight ET, they had to travel 2,200 miles to San Diego to play less than 40 hours later. The Irish basically played only 6 players with all 6 topping 33 minutes played and 3 players topping 40 minutes. Bama is ultra talented. They don’t always “show up” so to speak but they have potential future NBA players in Davison, Ellis, and Quinerly. When they are on, they are very good having beaten the likes of Gonzaga & Baylor (#1 seeds) along with Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas, LSU, and Miami FL, all NCAA tourney teams. We expect them to bring their “A” game now in the Big Dance. The Tide played the toughest schedule in the country per Ken Pom (ND 67th in schedule strength) and their PPP differential is better than the Irish despite that that (+18 points per 100 possessions to +14 for ND). Bama does struggle at times with TO’s but that shouldn’t hurt them here as the Irish are one of the worst in the nation (334th) at creating takeaways. Notre Dame is a solid shooting team but should have tired legs here vs an athletic defense that gives up just 0.98 PPP. The Irish beat just ONE team this season ranked inside the Ken Pom top 30 while Bama has 6 wins over teams in the top 20 per Ken Pom including 4 wins vs the top 10. Alabama, currently 25th, takes down the Irish on Friday.

#766 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue -16 over Yale, Friday at 2 PM ET - We feel this is one of the games in the first round that has absolute blowout potential. Yale wasn’t even the best team in the Ivy League this year but upset Princeton in the conference tourney to get here. The Bulldogs are ranked right around 150th by most power rating which would make them the worst team in the Big 10 by 10 to 15 spots behind Nebraska. Purdue faced the Huskers once this year and won 92-65. Yale hasn’t faced a top 100 team since mid December and they faced just 5 teams ranked inside the top 100 this season. The Bulldogs are 0-5 SU in those games losing by margins of 36, 22, 17, 14, and 8 points. Purdue will be the top team they’ve faced this year with the possible exception of Auburn who beat Yale by 22 points but led by 34 midway through the 2nd half. Yale is a smaller team that struggles on the boards and doesn’t defend inside very well ranking outside the top 150 in both mid range and near proximity defense. That’s a huge problem vs this Purdue offense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and 11th in 2 point FG%. The Boilers should have a field day on offense and on the boards. Purdue’s achilles heel this year was their defense which ranked 99th nationally in efficiency. As “poor” as that might seem by Big 10 standards, that would rank as the #1 defense in the Ivy League! Yale ranks below 200th in both offensive efficiency and 3 point FG% so we don’t think they’ll do much offensive here. Purdue rolls up a big win here.

#748 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s -2.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET - Horrible spot here for IU. They played a physical grinder on Tuesday night vs Wyoming and a game that didn’t end until almost midnight ET. The Hoosiers pulled off the win to move on and then had to travel 2,300 miles to Portland and face a tough defensive St Mary’s team in a game that tips just 43 hours after IU beat Wyoming. On top of that, they were supposed to fly out to Portland at 1 AM and weren’t able to take off from Dayton until after 4 AM. They didn’t land in Portland until late morning on Wednesday and have to play in 36 hours. Indiana had some built in advantages on Tuesday include a huge home court advantage as the Dayton Arena (150 miles from Bloomington) that was filled with Hoosier fans. The Cowboys also turned the ball over almost 30% of the time leading to 16 more shot attempts for Indiana and they game still was undecided late. We were on IU in that game but this one is a whole different animal. St Mary’s is rested (off since March 8) and they play fantastic, physical defense. They rank 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they have size and defend the interior very well which is where IU needs to be able to score. The Hoosiers don’t have great shooting guards and they score only 25% of their points from the arc (318th nationally). Not only are the Gaels a top notch defensive team, they are the better shooting team as well. They also make almost 76% of the FT’s and rarely turn the ball over. St Mary’s is 1 of 3 teams this season to beat Gonzaga along with Bama & Duke. The Gaels also finished 3-2 vs WCC NCAA teams sweeping San Francisco and losing twice to the Zags. Really good situation for St Mary’s and we’ll lay the small price.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Providence -2 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - SDSU has become a way too popular underdog in this game. We basically need the Friars to just win the game with the current number. Many have brought up the Friars “luck” on the season as they’ve won a number of close games. However, the fact is, they know how to win those games and they won the Big East regular season title with a 14-3 conference record. Their only regular season conference losses were @ Marquette and 2 losses to Villanova, a 2-seed in the Dance, by 2 & 5 points. South Dakota State won the Summit League title but that is a league without a single team, besides SDSU, ranked in the top 100. The Jackrabbits played only 4 top 100 teams all season long going 2-2 in those games beating Washington State & Bradley while losing to Bama & Missouri State. The last top 100 team SDSU faced was back on December 15th. Providence played 17 games vs top 100 teams with a record of 12-5 SU. SDSU’s offensive numbers are very good but let’s take into account they did not face a top 130 defense in conference play. The Summit League is known for poor defenses with 4 of their 10 teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and 8 of the 10 outside the top 200. Providence will be the best defense they’ve faced since early December. The Friars played 9 games this season without either Reeves or Bynum, two of their best players, but are 100% healthy entering the tourney. They have a big size advantage inside and should control the glass in this game. The Friars can shoot it a little as well as they were the best 3-point shooting team in Big East play and they have one of the better big men in this tourney, Nate Watson (14 PPG, 6 RPG). With this line sitting not far from pick-em we’ll fade possibly the most popular dog in round one and side with Providence.

#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET - We have Rutgers rated as the better team here and as of this writing, we’re getting points. Rutgers played in the much tougher conference so they faced the tougher schedule (34th SOS for Rutgers / 68th SOS for Notre Dame). The Scarlet Knights were 6-6 this year in Quad 1 Games (Home vs top 30 NET teams + Neutral site vs top 50 teams + Away vs top 75 teams). Notre Dame was 2-8 in their Quad 1 games. If we throw in Quad 2 results as well, the Irish were only 4-9 in those games. Not impressive. Along those lines, Notre Dame had just 3 wins all season vs teams ranked in the top 75 on Ken Pom. Rutgers has 8 wins this season vs teams currently ranked in the top 75. That doesn’t tell the whole story as in fact all 8 of those wins came vs teams ranked in the top 40! The Irish rely very heavily on the 3 point shot which we don’t always love when playing at an unfamiliar venue. They score just 46% of their points inside the arc which is 311th nationally. Rutgers, on the other hand, scores nearly 58% of their points inside the arc and they are facing a ND defense that struggles to defend inside. In fact, the Irish have allowed their opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range which is 23rd most in the nation. We think Rutgers controls the inside and unless ND shoots lights out from deep, we’ll be OK here. ND played 2 Big 10 teams this year and lost by 10 vs Illinois and by 8 vs Indiana. Rutgers played 1 ACC team this season and beat Clemson by 10. The Scarlet Knights have been a money maker as a dog this season with an 11-5 ATS record and we like them to win this game

#709 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iona +6.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - What an extremely tough situation for a Florida team facing a very solid opponent in Iona on Wednesday. First of all the Gators have to overcome the disappointment of not making the NCAA tourney for the first time since 2016. They were expecting to be there again this year and lost 5 of their last 8 games to take them out of consideration. Secondly, they just lost their coach on Sunday as Mike White accepted the head coaching job at SEC rival Georgia. Assistant coach, Al Pinkins, who has never been a head coach will take this team over for their NIT game/games. That’s a lot of emotional baggage, so to speak, to overcome in a short time. They will be facing an Iona team, let by one of the top coaches in CBB history, Rick Pitino so a strong coaching edge to the Gaels in this game. They are a veteran team with 4 senior starters, that played one of the tougher low major schedules in the country. Iona finished 25-7 including a win over Alabama who beat Florida by 13 on the road in their only meeting this season. They were the best team in the MAAC all season long but were upset by Rider 71-70 in the conference tourney. They are a very good defensive team (46th eFG% allowed) and they defend the 3 very well (29th nationally) which is key here as the Gators like to launch from beyond the arc. The Gaels also have decent size and they are a solid rebounding team so they should hang with Florida on the boards. They have only 1 loss this season by more than 9 points and that was vs #1 seed Kansas (lost by 13). Iona will give the Gators all they can handle here. We expect it to be close throughout and we grab the points.

#705 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nicholls State +15.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Almost no way SMU brings their “A” game here. They were among the most devasted teams to be left out of the Big Dance. Here are some quotes from SMU coach Jankovich which speaks volumes. "I saw a group of guys completely devastated and heartbroken. In my eyes, they're 100% an NCAA tournament team. I hope they don't let what a small committee of others believes change how they feel about themselves.” Now to have to play in a meaningless (to them) game will be very tough. Nicholls State is just happy to still be playing. They are veteran team with 5 senior starters that was the top team all season long in the Southern Conference. They won the regular season title but were upset by Texas A&M CC in the conference tourney. The Colonels played some tough competition quite well before entering their conference slate. They lost by 3 @ Wisconsin, by 14 @ Purdue, and by 13 @ TCU. They also beat a very solid Northern Iowa team on the road. They are a decent shooting team (69th nationally in eFG%) and they have pretty good size for a low major team and won’t get dominated on the boards vs a poor rebounding SMU team. NSU had a winning 10-9 SU record on the road this season. This line is a bit high in our opinion even not taking the emotional letdown in mind here. 2 teams in the AAC that were similarly rated to Nicholls State were Tulsa and USF. SMU was favored by 10.5 and 14.5 at home in those games and won both of those games by 14. Too many points to begin with and factoring in the situation we like Nicholls State.

#665 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -3.5 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET - IU has already pulled out the disrespect card in regards to being chosen to take part in one of the play in games. They felt they were firmly in the field and in hindsight they barely made it in. Hoosier star forward Trace Jackson-Davis took to Instagram after the selection process, ““Some disrespect. We in. That’s all that matters.” Expect IU to play with a chip on their shoulder in front of what will be like a home crowd for them. Dayton is just 160 miles from Bloomington and this storied program hasn’t been to the Dance since 2016 so we can expect the Crimson & White fans to be all over Dayton Arena on Tuesday night. Wyoming had a solid year but struggled down the stretch winning 4 of their last 9 games. 2 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (Air Force & Nevada) and the 2 others were by 2 points and in OT. It’s also a rough match up for the Cowboys as they played through the post offensive as much as any team in the nation and IU excels at defending inside (8th best at near proximity shots & 14th best at defending mid range shots). Indiana is finally healthy as well after missing two key players (Galloway & Phinisee) for a number of games down the stretch. Now with them back in the lineup they seem to be peaking beating Michigan, Illinois, and nearly taking down a red hot Iowa in the Big 10 tourney. Lay the points.

#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -4.5 over Oregon, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks will most likely have zero interest in playing this game. They are on the road, in the NIT, vs a MWC team. This is an Oregon team who tanked it down the stretch. They were in line for a highly probably NCAA bid in mid February with a 17-8 record, 10-4 in the Pac 12. They proceeded to drop 6 of their final 8 games to officially drop out of NCAA consideration. This is not where this team wanted to be. They are also shorthanded with starting PG Richardson and leading scorer (14 PPG) mostly likely out for the 4th consecutive game. The Ducks are 1-3 with him out of the line up with their only win coming over last place Oregon State. On top of that, starting F Dante (8 PPG, 6 RPG) missed practice on Sunday with an injury. We envision this team showing up and playing out the string in this one. USU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be hosting a Pac 12 team in the NIT. They stated as much on Sunday night. They rarely host a high major type team. In fact, the last time the Aggies played host to a Power 5 team was way back on 2014 when the topped USC here by 13 points. They will be pumped for this game. Not only that, they are a very solid team. They rank in the top 50 in offensive efficiency and in the top 25 in eFG%. They shoot 48% at home and win by an average margin of +11 points. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. Oregon underachieved all season with a terrible 12-20 ATS record and we don’t expect that to change tonight. USU is the play.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - The Celtics have been playing lights out and garnering a ton of media attention which has driven this line higher than it should be. If I ask you which of these teams has a better overall record you would be quick to tell me Boston. If I were to say who has won 12 of their last fifteen you would probably reply Boston. In reality the team I’m talking about is Dallas. The Mavs have flown under the radar for most of the season and are the bet in this situation. Dallas owns the 8th best average point differential in the NBA at +3.1PPG. Boston is slightly better at +5.7PPG. Boston owns a slightly better overall offensive efficiency rating but both are near equal defensively ranking 3rd (Boston) and 5th (Dallas). Boston has the 5th best home average margin of victory in the league at +5.7PPG but Dallas holds the 7th best road differential at +1.7PPG. Dallas has been an underdog of more than +7.5 points just three times this season and they are perfect against the spread in those games or 3-0 ATS. Boston hasn’t faired well as a bigger favorite this season with a 7-11 ATS mark when laying -7.5 or more points. Dallas has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings in Beantown. Grab the points.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Davidson -3.5 over Richmond, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - While Richmond is playing for a spot in the Big Dance, we think this is a terrible spot for them. It’s the Spiders 4th game in 4 days and to be honest, they’ve been a bit lucky to get to this spot. They’ve held their first 3 opponents to just 25% from 3-point land which is a big time outlier as the Spiders rank 211th nationally and 11th in the A10 at defending the arc. They now play a Davidson team that ranks 7th nationally shooting from deep hitting almost 39% of their 3’s. They also rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and 11th in eFG%. Richmond has also held their first 3 opponents in this tourney to just 62 PPG which is more than 10 points below what they gave up per game during the season. Tired legs playing their 4th straight game will make it very tough today vs one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Richmond was down 15 in the 2nd half yesterday vs Dayton and made a furious comeback to win a close won. They led for a total of 2 minutes the entire game. Davidson is well rested and ready here. They blew out Fordham to open the tourney and they destroyed a very good St Louis team yesterday. The Wildcats have been able to spread out their minutes with 8 players playing double digit minutes in each game. They are also playing their 3rd game in this tourney while Richmond is playing their 4th. These 2 met once this season and Davidson won that game @ Richmond. We realize this is a huge game for the Spiders, but teams that “have to” win don’t always win. We think they run out of gas here vs the better team. Lay the number.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 over Cleveland Cavaliers - The Cavs are coming off a big game last night in Miami and have a tough matchup here against a highly motivated Bulls team that is 1-5 SU their last six games. The lack of rest for the Cavaliers is magnified in this game as they are missing two of their top 6 players with LeVert and Allen sidelined. With rest advantage the Bulls are 12-5 SU (10-7 ATS) +3.4PPG in those 17 contests. The home team has won 4 straight in this rivalry, both games this season. The Bulls are 24-10 SU this season at home with a +/- of 4.4PPG. Chicago will get starting center Vucevik back here and likely LaVine. Chicago has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league this season, the Cavs rank 19th. Given the scheduling circumstances we like the Bulls to get a 8 or more point win here.

#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -2.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UK was hoping for this rematch in the SEC tourney and they got it. The Cats have won 11 of their last 13 games and one of those losses was @ Tennessee and it just happened to be Kentucky’s most lopsided loss of the season. They lost 76-63 and trailed by as many as 20 points late in the game. The Wildcats shot just 34% from the field, well below their season average of 49% which is 12th best in the country. They averaged just 0.94 PPP also way below their season average of 1.21 PPP (4th best in the nation). The Vols made 47% of their 3’s in that game which propelled them to the win. They need to make their 3’s to have a chance to win as UT is poor offensively inside the arc ranking 14th in the SEC in 2 point FG%. Kentucky is one of the best 3 point defensive teams in the nation – ranked 26th – so we don’t expect Tennessee to hit anywhere near 47% in today’s game. On the other end, Kentucky is the best 3 point shooting team in the SEC at 39% but made just 31% in their loss @ UT a few weeks ago. UK is the #1 offensive team in the league in efficiency, eFG%, 3 point %, and scoring. They are only a slight step behind Tennessee defensively. The Cats have the superior PPP differential in SEC play and they are the better team. Despite their recent loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats rolled UT in their first meeting 107-79. We’ll lay the small number with Kentucky.

#830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3.5 over Richmond, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - VCU has been the better team all season long and this is simply a poor match up for Richmond. The Rams won both games rolling at home by 20 points and winning on the road by 2. In their road game which they won by 2, Richmond took 7 more shots and 14 more FT’s and STILL lost at home which speaks to the Rams just being that much better. In the 2nd meeting when the attempts were more equal (VCU took 6 more shot and both attempted 18 FT’s) the Rams rolled to a huge win. VCU’s defense, which ranks 4th nationally in efficiency & 3rd in eFG% allowed, completely shut down Richmond’s offense holding them to 0.89 and 0.91 points per possession. The Spiders shot just 36% in the two meetings combined and made only 21% of their 3’s. That’s not an outlier as we mentioned VCU has a defense that is nearly 2nd to none nationally. VCU’s offense was successful vs a Richmond defense that ranks 9th in the A10 in efficiency and 11th in eFG% allowed. The Rams made 48% of their shots in the 2 meetings with Richmond. VCU led by 23 and 10 points in each of their games vs Richmond while the Spiders largest lead in either was 8 points and that was in the first half of one match up. IN the 2 meetings combined, the Spiders led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half! Richmond beat Rhode Island yesterday but had to make a big 2nd half comeback to do so. They trailed by 15 in the 2nd half vs URI who ranks as the 8th best team (power rankings) in the A10. VCU gets another win and moves on in the A10 tourney.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -1.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - At first glance, why are the Warriors favored in this game? This number is a drastic swing from the Nuggets recently being an 8-point home favorite over the Warriors, but it’s warranted given these circumstances. Denver is coming off a game last night in Sacramento, playing their 3rd day and 4th in five days. The Nuggets are 5-7 on the season when playing without rest with a negative differential. Golden State just lost here in Denver 3 days ago, but they opted to sit all of their starters and were still competitive, losing by 7-points. The Warriors had lost 5 straight games but got a much-needed win against the Clippers on Tuesday. These two teams have near identical offensive numbers, but defensively the Warriors are much better. Golden State ranks top 5 defensively in points allowed FG% D, 3PT% D and rebounding. Golden State is playing with revenge and rested and the oddsmakers clearly are baiting you into backing Denver. We won’t bite!

#719 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +5 over Ohio State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - PSU will slow this game to a crawl making the points more valuable in a projected low scoring game (total is currently 130). They are the better defensive team (50th nationally in efficiency to 122nd for OSU) and they rarely get blown out. Of PSU’s 16 losses, 10 have come by 7 points or less and only once since February 1st have they lost by more than 6 points. The Buckeyes are trending downward entering this tourney. They have lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins during that stretch came in OT and by 3 points. Key reserve Kyle Young (3rd leading scorer) has been out the last 3 games due to concussion protocol and will miss this game today. Starting F Zed Key has an ankle injury and may not play today, if he does he is not at 100%. OSU is already in the Big Dance and this tourney might not be as important as simply getting healthy. Head coach Chris Holtmann said as much this week stating, “Obviously it’s important for us to get healthy.” These 2 met once this year in Columbus and PSU took the Buckeyes to the wire losing 61-56. PSU played that game without Seth Lundy, their 2nd leading scorer at 12 PPG. OSU made 24 FT’s in that win to just 8 for the Nittany Lions and it still went to the wire. We like the fact that Penn State played here last night beating Minnesota by 9 points. It gave them a feel for the venue (Pacers home court) and 2 games in 2 days is not necessarily a negative as some make it out to be. We actually view it as a positive (at times) when playing in an unfamiliar arena. 3 games in 3 days or 4 in 4 can become a negative but not 2 in 2 (most of the time). We give Penn State a solid shot at the upset here but have the +5 as a solid cushion.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We will start with the obvious here and the fact the Bucks have been horrendous at home as a favorite this season with a 11-20 ATS record and a +/- of +5.3PPG in those games. Milwaukee is just 4-3 SU their last 7 at home and just can't get untracked at home. Scheduling clearly favors the Hawks with the Bucks coming off a game Tuesday night in OKC and they are just 3-8 ATS this season when playing without rest. Milwaukee is also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have a much bigger game on deck at Golden State. We like the Hawks who are rested and coming off an embarrassing loss to Detroit on Monday night as an 8-point favorite. Atlanta is 8th in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break, 17th in DEFF 1.150PPP which is drastically better than their season average of 27th allowing 1.146-points per possession. Since the break the Hawks have a +3.3 PPG differential. Atlanta is a matchup problem for the Bucks as they’ve beaten them twice this season already. Hawks 13-5 ATS their last eighteen meetings in Milwaukee

#648 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Clemson and the Tigers pulled out a 63-59 win. The Hokies came into that game on a red hot run winning 9 of their previous 10 games. They played well below their offensive averages on Saturday putting up just 0.97 PPP (they average 1.13 PPP – 28th nationally) and shot just 37% for the game (they average 47% on the season). They are also one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation (4th hitting 39% of their triples) yet made just 30% in Saturday’s loss. Clemson pretty much hit their average with 1.04 PPP but weren’t able to pull away at home in a game that was tight throughout. The Tigers largest lead of the entire game was 6 points despite Tech’s poor offensive performance. Now we get a shot with the better team with quick revenge. Clemson is coming off a win yesterday over last place NC State (won by 6) but shot only 42% vs the worst defense in the ACC. Tonight the Tigers face a team that is better offensively, better defensively, and nearly beat them on the road despite playing poorly. We’ll lay this short number with Va Tech.

#651 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Joes -2 over LaSalle, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 have the same conference record at 5-13 but St Joes is the better team (Ken Pom ranked 157th to 231st for LaSalle) and they should have some extra motivation here vs their Philly rival. These 2 met twice this year, St Joes was favored in both and lost both. The Hawks blew big leads in both games leading by 15 & 14 points. Their most recent meeting was @ LaSalle one week ago today and the host overcame that big deficit to pull out a 49-48 win. St Joes (-1) led that road game by 12 at half and scored only 12 points the entire 2nd half. They shot 27% overall and 29% from beyond the arc and STILL almost won the game on the road. LaSalle led the game for a grand total of 2 minutes! St Joes is the much better defensive team ranking 3rd in the A10 in eFG% allowed (LaSalle ranks 12th) and they are the better shooting team both inside and outside the arc and they have the better PPP differential in league play. The Hawks get more points from 3 point range than any other team in the conference and they are facing a LaSalle defense that ranks 318th nationally defending the arc. We like St Joes to improve drastically on their 29% three point effort from last week and pick up a nice win here. The favorite is 19-9-2 ATS the last 30 meetings between these 2 heated rivals. Lay it with St Joes.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Pistons have looked like a completely different team since the trade deadline which has led to a 5-2 SU record in their last seven games as they gun for their 3rd straight win tonight. The Pistons wins have been solid too as they’ve beaten the Raptors, Hornets, Cavs and Celtics in that stretch. Detroit continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers and it shows in their ATS streak which now stands at 7 covers in a row. The Hawks are making a playoff push themselves and have also won 5 of their last seven and two in a row but this isn’t a great spot for them, off a win and facing the Bucks next. In their last five games the Pistons have shown a dramatic improvement in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and they have an average +/- of -0.8PPG. The Hawks average +/- in their last five games is +4.6PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover in this match up. Atlanta is 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of minus -2.2PPG. The Hawks may get a win here but it’s going to be close. Grab the dog and points.

#879 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +1 over Cleveland State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The better team is getting points here. As of this writing Wright State is +1 and we’ll gladly grab the points. Cleveland State topped Wright State by a half game to win the Horizon, however we don’t like the way they are playing right now. The Vikings were 10-1 and had a huge lead in league play before going just 5-5 down the stretch (6-5 if you include their win in the Horizon tourney). Their wins during that 11 game stretch (since late January) have come against IUPUI, Milwaukee (twice), Green Bay (twice), and Robert Morris, the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. They lost to every team they faced ranked 8th or higher in the conference during that 11 game stretch. If we look at the Horizon League season as a whole, if we subtract the bottom 4 teams, CSU has a PPG differential of just +1.6 vs the top 8. Wright State is +6.2 PPG vs the top 8 teams in the conference. The Raiders have a better PPP margin in league play, a better overall PPG margin, and they are the #1 offense (efficiency) in the Horizon averaging 1.13 PPP. Wright State comes in having won 8 of their last 11 games with their 3 losses coming by 3, 4, and 5 points. They rank 1st in the conference in rebound margin and if this game is tight as the line suggests, WSU hits 76% of the FT’s on the season and CSU makes just 67%. Wright State lost both games vs Cleveland State this season but those games were in early December and in January. The Raiders are playing their best BB right now and we have them power rated as a favorite in this one. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -4.5 over NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - Remember when the Knicks started the season off with one of the best offenses in the NBA? Yeah, that was through the first few weeks of the season and was short lived. New York is the 27th lowest scoring team in the league, 27th in FG% at 43.4% and 16th in 3-point%. The Knicks are 25th in overall offensive efficiency at 1.089-points per possession and have a net differential on the road of minus -2.8PPG. The Knicks have lost 7 straight games and have a 3-13 SU record their last sixteen games. The Clippers are gaining traction in the West with 5 straight wins and 7 of their last eight overall. At home the Clippers have been especially tough with a 7-1 SU record their last eight and the lone loss came against the defending Champions, Milwaukee Bucks. Since the All-Star break the Clippers have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating and a +/- of +9.5PPG. We like the Clippers to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA play on 8* Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives and each has struggled in recent outings as the Cavs have lost 3-straight, Toronto 2 in a row. The difference though is that the Raptors lost to Orlando and Detroit at home who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Cleveland on the other hand has three losses to Philadelphia, Charlotte and Minnesota who are all significantly better than the Pistons and Magic. The Cavs had some health issues with their two All-Stars as Garland and Allen both missed time after the break and the team struggled. Both played against Philly and made huge contributions, and both are expected to be in the lineup today. Toronto has struggled without two starters in their lineup as Van Vleet and Anunoby have both missed time. On the season the Raptors have the 13th best offensive efficiency numbers but in their last five games they’ve dipped to 21st. The Cavaliers are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season and will provide a stiff challenge for the depleted Raptors offense. Cleveland is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings with the Raptors and have a great shot at covering this number considering they have a +/- at home of +5.4PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. Lay it!

#832 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chattanooga -1.5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Chattanooga was the better team all season long and on top of that they match up very well with Wofford. The Mocs won both regular season match ups by 11 and 8 points holding Wofford to 0.97 PPP in both of those meetings. UTC’s defense is the best in the Southern Conference ranking 1st in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. The last stat on that list is the key here as Wofford relies very heavily on the 3 point shot, as much as nearly any team in the country. That makes it tough vs Chattanooga who allows just 30% from deep which was the Terriers problem in the first 2 meetings hitting just 27% in those 2 games combined from deep. If Wofford isn’t successful from beyond the arc, they can’t win this game. They were just 3-5 SU vs the top 4 three point defensive teams in the Southern Conference (Furman, Chattanooga, ETSU, and Mercer). UTC, on the other hand, likes to score inside the arc. While they can shoot the 3 (hit 35% from deep) over 50% of their points come from inside the arc (2nd in the conference). Wofford is 295th nationally at defending inside the 3 point line and hit 54% and 52% of their 2 point shots in their games vs the Terriers this season. UTC is built to win in the tournament. They have 2 outstanding Senior guards, who will be the 2 best players on the court in this game in our opinion, and a big man (DeSousa) who transferred from Kansas and can cause problems inside. DeSousa missed 7 games this season (including one of the meetings vs Wofford) and when at full strength, Chattanooga is the best team in the conference. We have this number at -3 so we like the value with UTC. Lay it.

#807 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +14 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Badgers. They are off a physically and emotionally demanding game earlier this week here vs Purdue. The atmosphere was insane. We were courtside to witness the game and the court storming celebration afterwards. Wisconsin clinched the Big 10 Title with their 70-67 win over Purdue. They have at least a share of the title and if they win here they will win it outright. Even with that, going from playing Purdue to a Sunday afternoon affair with the last place team in the league and an atmosphere that will be nowhere close, we anticipate a letdown. While the Badgers are Big 10 Champs, they win close games and rarely roll over anyone. They have NOT won a game in the Big 10 this year by more than 14 points which is where this spread sits as we write this. When they faced the Huskers earlier this year UW won by 8 points in a game the Badgers shot an uncharacteristic 46% from beyond the arc (they average 31% in Big 10 play - dead last in the conference). The Huskers were in the midst of a 10 game losing streak during their first meeting but they are now playing, by far, their best basketball of the year. The offense is humming right now for this Nebraska team. They are off back to back road wins @ Penn State (won by 23) and @ Ohio State (won by 8). Prior to that they had a red hot Iowa team (who has won 8 of their last 9) on the ropes before falling by 10. In their last 2 games this offense put up 1.35 PPP vs a PSU defense that allows 0.97 PPP on the season & 1.24 PPP vs an Ohio State defense that allows 1.00 PPP on the year. We don't see Wisconsin being able to pull away here the way NU is playing offensively. The Badgers should win this one but not in blowout fashion. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as double digit favorites. Take the points.

#720 ASA PLAY ON 8* Weber State -4.5 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The winner of this game clinches at least a share of 2nd place in the Big Sky conference. Both teams come in with a 13-6 league record but Weber has been the better team and they are in the much better situation. Weber State has had a full week off since destroying Northern Arizona on the road last Saturday 73-49. While the Wildcats are rested and have had plenty of time to prepare for this home game, SUU will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days having played @ Montana State on Tuesday, @ Idaho State on Thursday and now @ Weber State tonight. The Wildcats lead the Big Sky in points per possession differential at +10.6 and they are 2nd in PPG differential only behind 1st place Montana State. They have the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Sky and the 1st most efficient defense. Southern Utah has shown they can beat the teams they are supposed to but when stepping up and facing the top teams in the conference they have fallen flat. The top 4 teams in the conference are Montana State, Weber State, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah. SUU is 0-5 SU vs those opponents (Weber is 3-2) and they’ve lost those game by an average of almost 10 PPG. The Thunderbirds are 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog which goes along with not stepping up vs good teams. Weber has beaten SUU here at home 19 of the last 22 meetings and they pick up a win and cover on Saturday night.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 5:10 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to sell the Mavericks when their stocks are high and buy the Kings when they are low. The Mavs enter this game having won 9 of their last eleven games which has driven this number higher than it should be. Not to mention, the Mavericks are coming off a huge 3-game winning stretch against the Warriors (twice) and the Lakers. The last loss on the Mavs schedule was against the Utah Jazz who coincidentally is next on their schedule. You can’t blame Dallas for looking ahead to that game as the Jazz currently sit 4th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas who is 5th. The Kings have alternated wins in their last four games and are coming off a solid road win in San Antonio last time out. It's a well-known fact the Kings aren’t good defensively but can the Mavs 25th ranked scoring offense take advantage and cover a number as high as this? When laying more than 5-points this season the Mavericks are 7-11 ATS which ties into their record as a home favorite the past two seasons of 10-17 ATS. Dallas is 21-11 SU at home on the year with an average MOV of +5.2PPG which won’t get it done here. The Kings have covered 7 of the last nine meetings in Dallas and 22 of the last thirty-one meetings overall. Given the situation and the price we like the Kings here.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State -5.5 over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - ASU is playing as well as nearly anyone in the Pac 12 right now. After starting the season with a 3-9 conference record, the Devils have now won 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UCLA. Their defense has been fantastic during this 7 game stretch holding their opponents to just 57 PPG. They rank 2nd in the conference in eFG% defense and 1st in 3 point % defense. That’s a big problem for a Stanford offense that averages just 61 PPG on the road this season and ranks 10th in the Pac 12 in offensive efficiency. The Cardinal have been held to 60 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games and we highly doubt they get out of the 50’s in this match up. ASU also has been very good at creating turnovers (almost 20% rate) which should give them plenty of extra opportunities here vs a Stanford offense that turns the ball over 22% of the time (last in the Pac 12). In their 71-44 win here vs Cal on Thursday, the Sun Devils outscored the Bears 16-2 off turnovers and Cal is much better at protecting the ball then Stanford is. The Cardinal are in a tough scheduling spot here as well playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of 8 days. While ASU is peaking, Stanford is heading the opposite direction losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming vs Oregon State, the worst team in the conference. In their first meeting this year, Stanford topped ASU 79-76 shooting 47% from beyond the arc (ASU shot 28%) and made 32 FT’s to just 7 for the Sun Devils. Despite those huge differentials, the game went to the wire. ASU was actually called for a foul on a Stanford 3 point shot with 1 second remaining and the game tied at 76-76. And that’s when Arizona State was playing poorly in the middle of a stretch where they lost 9 of 11 games. We like the Devils to roll in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - This is a big game in the Eastern Conference as the Bulls currently sit 3rd overall at 39-24, the Bucks rank 4th at 38-25. The Bulls are clearly the more desperate team here having lost 3 straight games. Chicago had won 6 straight games prior to that and the three losses came to Memphis, Miami and Atlanta so it’s not like they were lower level teams. The value in the line clearly sides with the Bulls considering they were just +5 AT Miami the other day and even +2.5 at home against a red-hot Memphis team who is 26-7 their last 33 games. Milwaukee is coming off a big win at home against the Heat and may let down here. The Bucks were down in the 4th quarter of that game and rallied from behind for the last second win. The Bucks defense has slipped this season ranking 16th in points allowed per game and 12th in 3-point% defense. The Bulls can take advantage with the 8th highest scoring offense in the league and the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. The Bulls are 14-9 ATS off a loss this season with a +2.4PPG differential. Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS their last 13 when coming off a win.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -10.5 over TCU, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Tuesday and TCU pulled the upset beating Kansas 74-64 as a 6.5 point dog. It was KU’s 2nd straight loss after getting beat @ Baylor on Saturday. Coming off 2 losses and in a quick revenge spot, we expect Kansas to play very well at home tonight. The Jayhawks shot very poorly on Tuesday hitting only 37% of their shots and averaging just 1.02 points per possession. That’s way below their season averages of 49% (12th nationally) and 1.20 PPP (4th nationally). Crazy as it may sound, TCU is probably in a bit of a letdown spot here. Not only did they beat KU at home on Tuesday they also knocked off Texas Tech at home on Saturday. They went into their final home stand of the season with the goal of knocking off the 2 highly ranked opponents to lock themselves in to an NCAA tourney bid. They did just that and the Frogs now venture out on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight games by margins of 9, 10, and 13 points. They turned the ball over a season low 8 times vs Kansas which was very uncharacteristic of a team that ranks below 300 in TO rate coughing it up on over 23% of their possessions – last in the Big 12. They also dominated the boards (+12) and while they are a very good rebounding team, KU is solid on the glass as well. This will be a very tough turnaround in a venue (Allen Fieldhouse) where the Frogs have lost 10 straight. TCU struggles offensively at times (247th nationally in scoring) and that will be a problem here vs a fired up KU offense that averages 82 PPG off one of their worst performances of the season on Tuesday vs this team. A win here for Kansas puts them back in first place in the Big 12 tied with Baylor. Lay it.

#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON UNLV -1.5 over Wyoming, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for UNLV. They are playing their best basketball of the season but coming off a home loss on Saturday vs Boise State, the highest rated and 1st place team in the Mountain West. While the Rebels last played on Saturday, Wyoming beat Nevada at home on Saturday, lost to San Diego State at home on Monday and now travel to UNLV for their 3rd game in 5 days. Coming off an always physical game vs the defensive minded Aztecs is always tough especially when having to play on the road just 48 hours later. This is UNLV’s final home game so it will be significant for the 4 Seniors who are in the starting line up. The Rebs have won 3 of their last 4 games including a 21 point win over Colorado State who ranks 20+ spots higher than Wyoming in our power rankings. They have won 4 of their last 5 home games with their only loss coming vs Boise which we discussed above. The Cowboys are solid offensively but their numbers on the road slip fairly drastically. They average 81 PPG at home and that number drops to 68 PPG on the road. UNLV’s defense ranks 2nd in the MWC in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point % allowed. They are allowing opponents to score just 61 PPG on just 37% shooting at the Thomas & Mack Center. After winning 21 of their first 24 games, Wyoming is now trending in the wrong direction losing 3 of their last 5. Their only wins during that stretch were at home vs Air Force (10th rated team out of 11 in the MWC) and Nevada who is reeling losing 8 of their last 11. There is a reason the 17-12 team is favored over the 24-6 team in this one. We like UNLV.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Vanderbilt pick-em over Florida, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Vandy is playing their home finale here and they’ll have some extra motivation to knock off Florida after they played perhaps their worst game of the season earlier this year in Gainesville losing 61-42. To say the Commodores played poorly on offense would be an understatement. They made only 29% of their shots, just 17% from deep and only 52% from the FT line. They averaged only 0.72 PPP in that loss which is WAY down from their season average of 1.06 PPP. It was a 3 point game at halftime and Vandy went on to make THREE field goals the entire 2nd half scoring just 14 points. Vandy star forward Scotty Pippen, who will be the best player on the court tonight, played only 20 minutes in that loss due to fou trouble and scored a season low 6 points. Needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. Florida has underachieved all season long, especially on the road where they are just 3-6 SU on the season. Their 3 road wins on the season came vs Georgia, Mizzou, and South Carolina, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. The Gators have a -5 PPG margin on the road and shoot only 28% from beyond the arc. That’s a big problem tonight as Florida relies more on scoring from 3-point range than any other team in the SEC and Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 2nd in the league defending the arc allowing just 28% in conference play. Despite losing 4 of their last 5, we like the way Vandy is playing right now. Two of those losses were on the road vs Tennessee and Auburn, two of the top teams in the country, and both were competitive. Their other 2 losses during that stretch were at home by 2 points vs Alabama (better team than Florida) and by 5 points @ Miss State (better team than Florida). The Commodores continue to be undervalued covering 8 straight games and we have them as a favorite in this game. Take the host to win tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors pick’em over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Much like our win last night on the Bucks, the Warriors fall into a similar situation here against the Wolves. Golden State is off a horrible loss the other night (we had them), when they gave up a 19-point lead in the 4th quarter and lost to the Mavs. The Warriors have a day of rest off that terrible loss while the Wolves are coming off a game last night in Cleveland. So not only is the 2nd night of a back-to-back but their 4th game in six days. That’s significant considering the Wolves are 3-7 SU this season when playing without rest with an average loss margin of -7PPG and they’ve failed to cover 5-straight. These two teams have some similar numbers offensively, but the Warriors are far superior on the season defensively ranking 1st in defensive efficiency while the Wolves rank 17th. Golden State has the 8th best average margin of victory on the road this season and a 17-11 SU record. Expect a bounce back in this one.

#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -12 over Kansas State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for one of the best teams in the country. Tech is playing their final home game which will be big as they start 4 Seniors. They are also coming off a disappointing 69-66 loss @ TCU on Saturday. The Red Raiders played a poor game yet still led most of the way. KSU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with just 2:00 minutes remaining. Tech committed a season high 20 turnovers and allowed TCU, who averages 0.96 PPP in conference play, to put up 1.05 PPP. TT’s defense ranks 2nd nationally allowing only 0.86 PPP so you can see that TCU’s offense played well above their heads in that game that still went to the wire. Expect a very good defensive effort from the Raiders tonight at home. KSU has hit the skids losing 3 straight games and their defense has been poor allowing 102, 82, and 74 points in those 3 losses. They now rank 9th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. We look for Tech’s offense to play very well vs the Cats struggling defense while looking for their defense to really slow down Kansas State. Another added incentive is the fact that Texas Tech lost at KSU earlier this year. It was perhaps their worst game of the Big 12 season. The Raiders averaged a terrible 0.77 PPP in that game which was their 3rd lowest mark of the entire season. They were also outrebounded by a Kansas State team they should destroy on the boards which we expect they will tonight. Texas Tech is 17-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 80-58. They are 17-4 ATS their last 21 games as a home favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss. This one could get ugly.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to back an elite team like the Bucks off a home loss, playing at home and play against a Hornets team off an OT road game yesterday. Last time out the Bucks lost a big game at home to the Nets as a -9.5-point favorite. Milwaukee is 10-6 SU off a loss, playing at home this year, 8-8 ATS. Going back to 2018 there is no team better in the NBA when coming off a loss that the Bucks who have a 70-34 SU record. In general, the Bucks are 123-36 SU at home their last 159 at home with a +10PPG average. The Hornets played a fast-paced over-time game yesterday in Detroit and haven’t fared well in recent years when playing without rest with a 16-37 SU record. Lastly, these two teams met they played a back-to-back set of games in Charlotte with the Hornets winning both which will provide a little extra incentive for Milwaukee here. The big difference between these two teams is defense. The Bucks have been one of the best defensive units in the NBA in recent years and currently rank 13th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets are 22nd in DEFF overall, 24th on the road and are 28th in points allowed per game which makes it that much easier for a double-digit favorite to cover a big number.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Warriors in their first game after the All-Star break for several reasons and we feel this team is poised to make a serious run at the top spot in the West. Golden State shot 51% as a team and held the Blazers to just 39% in their 132-95 blowout win the other night. Dallas is off a loss at Utah as a +6.5-point underdog on Friday night and we don’t feel the adjustment by the oddsmakers is warranted here. These two teams are somewhat similar defensively with the Warriors holding a slight edge but offensively it’s close. Golden State is 10th in points per game, 6th in FG% and 6th in 3-point percentage. Dallas on the other hand is 20th or worse in those same categories. Golden State has the best home court differential in the NBA this season at +11.8PPG and they beat the Mavs here handily earlier this season 130-92. Golden State lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort in this one and a double-digit win.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -10.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 7 PM ET - PSU playing solid basketball right now winning 3 of their last 4 games including 3 straight at home. This will be their home finale so they will bring everything they’ve got on Sunday night. Nebraska, on the other hand, could be a bit flat. They gave Iowa a decent run at home on Friday night before losing by 10 and now 48 hours later they are on the road where they are 0-8 on the season. The Huskers home loss on Friday also guaranteed they will finish in last place in the Big 10. In their road games this year, the Nebraska defense has been non-existent allowing 87 PPG losing by an average margin of 16 PPG. Speaking of defense, they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point % allowed, and 13th in 3 point % allowed. Tough to win, or play close, on the road when your defensive numbers look like that. Penn State’s defense, on the other hand, has been outstanding allowing opponents to hit only 41% of their shots on the season. At home they have played 8 conference games winning 6. Their only losses here have come by 1 point vs Michigan and vs Purdue. The Nittany Lion defense has held 6 of their 8 opponents at home to 60 points or less. Nebraska has played 6 Big 10 road games (lost all 6) and 5 of those games were double digit losses. PSU gets the win and cover at home.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -2 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This line speaks volumes in our opinion. Looks to good to be true if you like Colorado State in this one. The team who sits at 22-4 and 12-4 in the Mountain West is an underdog to the team whose record is 16-13 overall and just 7-9 in conference play. There is a reason USU is favored here. They are better than their overall record. CSU has a great offense ranking 19th nationally in efficiency. Utah State is right there with the Rams ranking 35th nationally in offensive efficiency. USU is the better defense allowing 0.98 PPP in MWC play while Colorado State allows 1.01. Despite their record disparity, Utah State actually has a better points per possession differential in conference play at +6.4 to CSU’s +6.1. The Aggies played a few key conference games without starting guards Jones & Rock-Lytle losing to Wyoming, Boise State, and Fresno State when one or both were out. They are back and full strength. USU returned a key reserve as Brock Miller vs New Mexico on Tuesday after he missed all games since early January. In their first meeting in mid January the Aggies took CSU to the wire on the road losing 77-72. They made just 4 three pointers in that game with CSU making 10 which was the difference in a tight game. We look for them to shoot much better in their home finale – 48% overall and 35% from 3 at home – on Senior night. Utah State gets the win here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams just met in Sacramento the other night with the Nuggets winning by 18-points. You would think that makes this a revenge spot but we can’t ignore the value in the number and will side with Denver. The Nuggets were just a 4-point road favorite at Sacramento and are now laying just a few more points at home. Denver was covering this game the entire 4th quarter and had a remarkable shooting night. The Nuggets shot 56% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc, which is abnormally high, but what’s to say they can’t repeat that performance? Sacramento is 29th in scoring defense allowing 115.1PPG, 29th in overall field goal percentage defense and 26th in defending the 3-point line. That’s a bad matchup against a Nuggets team that is 13th in scoring, 3rd in FG% and 11th in 3-point percentage. Denver has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +4.9PPG. Sacramento has the 27th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -8.5PPG. Bet the value, bet Denver.

#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Tennessee -3.5 over Auburn, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Auburn is simply a different team away from home as many college teams are. While they do have a 7-2 road record, losing @ Florida and @ Arkansas, they’ve gone to the wire with a number of lower tier teams in the SEC. That includes barely getting by the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference on the road topping Georgia by 2 and Missouri by 1. They have shot just 41% overall and 28% from 3 point land in their 9 road games this season. That’ll be a problem on Saturday vs a Tennessee defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency allowing just 0.88 PPP on the season. The Tigers have also come back down to earth a bit after winning 19 straight games from late November through early February. They are just 3-2 SU their last 5 games with all 3 wins coming vs team ranked in the bottom 5 in the SEC. Tennessee will be the highest rated team Auburn has faced on the road this year and 2nd highest rated overall only behind Kentucky. The Vols are playing very well right now winning 9 of their last 11 games with their only losses coming @ Texas and @ Arkansas. They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season including a 13 point win over Kentucky (the top rated team in the SEC) and a 4 point win over Arizona (#2 in the country right now per Ken Pom). Going back to the start of last season the Vols are 27-3 SU at home. This season they are holding their opponents to just 59 PPG here at home while winning by an average of 20 PPG. Just a huge home game for Tennessee sitting 2 games behind Auburn and 1 game behind Kentucky in the SEC standings.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors limped into the All-Star break with losses in 4 of five games, including their most recent 2 games against the Clippers and Nuggets. Portland on the other hand won 4 straight games with quality wins over the Lakers, Bucks and Memphis. The Blazers though were dealt another injury blow as starting center Nurkic (scored 32-points last game) is out for this game which leaves a short-handed Blazer team even more depleted. Portland used to be fantastic at home with a 76-44 SU home record between 2018-2021 but are just 16-16 SU this season with a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. Golden State struggles can be directly attributed to some poor shooting by Steph Curry who found his stroke in the All-Star game, scoring 50-points. We expect that momentum to carry over here. The Warriors are 4-0 this year when playing on 4 or more days rest with a +12PPG differential. They have beaten the Blazers by double-digits twice already so a third doesn’t seem to be asking too much. Lay the points.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Cleveland State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We jumped on Detroit at home on Sunday vs a red hot Wright State team and picked up a win. The Titans won by 5 points but led by 26 points with just over 12:00 remaining and pretty much dominated a game that Wright State never led. That win moved them to 9-6 in conference play which is quite an accomplishment since 11 of their 15 games have been on the road! Even worse, they played 25 total games this season and only 7 have come at home. They are a perfect 7-0 at home on the season and they’ve won 14 straight as a host dating back to last season. After a 5 game road trip between Feb 4 and Feb 13, Detroit has now played their last 2 games at home, both wins over Northern KY and Wright State, the 3rd and 4th place teams in the Horizon. Cleveland State could be a bit flat here as the clinched the #1 seed in the post-season tourney and conference title @ UWGB on Sunday. In the first meeting back in mid January CSU barely held on for a 2-point win over Detroit at home. The Titans, who are 2nd in the Horizon making 36% of their 3’s, made only 4 of 21 from deep (19%) in that game yet still had a shot to win on the road. Now the Titans are at home where they hit 45% of their 3’s and average 82 PPG with an average winning margin of +18 PPG. We like Detroit to keep their winning ways in tact at home tonight.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Alabama -3 over Texas State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The 5th place team in the Sun Belt is a 3 point favorite over the 1st place team in the league in this game. That may seem surprising but we have USA rated higher overall and so does Ken Pom. This line says that these teams are basically even on a neutral court and we don’t agree. South Alabama is the better team, especially at home where they are 12-1 SU on the season with their average PPG margin of +20. They allow just 58 PPG at home this season and Texas State has struggled offensively on the road putting up only 65 PPG. We also get the Jaguars off a loss @ Appalachian State on Saturday. Texas State comes in having won 7 straight games yet the oddsmakers still have them as underdogs. The Bobcats have played the easiest schedule in the Sun Belt and 5 of their 7 most recent wins have come vs teams ranked in the bottom 5 in the league. Texas State is just 5-5 on the road with a PPG differential of -4. If you subtract their 2 road games vs teams ranked below 300, the Bobcats are 3-5 on the road with 4 of the 5 losses coming by double digits. These 2 did not meet last year but the home team has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Texas State has played 5 of their last 7 games at home and now they face the highest rated team they’ve played on the road this season on conference play. We like South Alabama to win and cover here.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Nevada -2.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - The Rebels are officially overvalued here having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They are coming off 2 huge wins over Fresno and CSU. UNLV was a 5 point home underdog in their game Saturday vs Colorado St (they won by 21) and now they are just a short underdog @ Nevada. This line opened pick-em and immediately moved in Nevada’s favor and we agree with that move. We have Nevada as a 3.5 point favorite so still some value on the host. From January 25 – February 8, the Wolfpack went on a 6 game losing streak and 5 of those losses came at the hands of San Diego State, Colorado State (twice), Fresno State, and Utah State – 4 of the 5 highest rated teams in the league. The other loss during that stretch was @ UNLV by the final score of 69-58. Nevada’s offense was outright bad in that game averaging only 0.88 PPP which was their 2nd worst offensive performance in Mountain West play this season. Part of the problem was their best offensive player, Grant Sherfield (19 PPG, 6 APG, and 4 RPG), was out. He actually missed 3 of Nevada’s 6 games during their losing streak which minimizes those results. Since he's come back from injury, the Pack have a 3-1 SU record and they’ve averaged at least 1.15 PPP in each of their 3 wins. UNLV is just 3-6 SU in true road games this year with a PPG margin of -6 in those contests. Since the start of the 2015 season, these 2 rivals have met 7 times on Nevada’s home court and the Wolfpack have won 6 of those games. We’ll lay the small number here.

#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +6.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for MSU. A definite buy low, sell high situation. The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 5 games including 2 in a row @ Penn State and at home vs Illinois. Iowa has won 4 of their last 5 including a big road upset on Saturday @ Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were +5.5 in that game @ OSU and now they are laying 6 or 6.5 at home vs Michigan State. We have OSU & MSU rated only a few spots apart in our power ratings so this is a big adjustment in our opinion. For comparison’s sake let’s take a look at some MSU road lines along with a few Iowa home lines. MSU was +3 @ Wisconsin (and won outright), +2 @ Illinois (and lost by 1), and favored in every other Big 10 road game. Iowa at home was an underdog vs Purdue (and lost), favored by 5 vs Michigan (and lost), and favored by 4.5 vs Indiana. The 3 highest rated teams Iowa has played at home (Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan) all beat them on their own court. This line is set too high based on recent results. Sparty has proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-3 SU record including 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has a grand total of ONE win this year vs a team ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 45 and that was Saturday vs Ohio State. They are 1-6 SU overall vs top 45 games and Michigan State sits at #27. MSU is the much better defensive team in this one and the Hawkeyes have had problems with teams that are strong on the offensive glass which the Spartans are. Michigan State is also won of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (9th) and they make 80% of their FT’s in conference play. We think this one will be tight and we’ll take the generous points.

#820 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Wright State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The fact that Detroit has a record above .500 in the Horizon is amazing. They are 8-6 in conference play and have played 11 of those 14 games on the road! You read that correctly. They’ve only played 3 home games in Horizon League play. Even worse, they played 24 total games this season and only 6 have come at home. They are a perfect 6-0 at home on the season. They beat Northern Kentucky here at home on Friday night and they close out the season with 3 more at home including today’s game vs Wright State. The Raiders are coming off a huge road upset on Friday night knocking off 2nd place Oakland 78-74. Now on the road for an early afternoon game means from the time their Friday night game tipped off to the start of this game is just 39 hours. That’s a tough turnaround for Wright State to come back to earth and get ready for another solid opponent after a big road win. The Raiders already have 3 conference road losses to teams ranked lower in Ken Pom than this Detroit team. The Titans have been waiting for this rematch as well after getting blasted 90-59 @ Wright State in early February. It was by far their worst performance of the season and they are set to atone for that today at home. WSU was favored by 4 in that game at home and now they are favored in this one on the road. Almost no adjustment in the line which is a mistake. We have Detroit as a small favorite in this game. The Titans shot terribly in the first match up including just 27% from 3 and on the season they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the Horizon. Wright State struggles to defend the arc ranking 8th in the league to those results from game 1 were not the norm. Detroit is undervalued due to their overall record which is the result of a brutally tough schedule. The catch Wright in an overconfident spot here as a road favorite. Take Detroit to win at home.

#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for Tennessee coming off their big revenge win at home over Kentucky on Tuesday. It was a game the Vols had circled after getting blasted by the Wildcats 107-79 in their first meeting this season. Now they have to go on the road to play a red hot Arkansas team who will have this game circled getting a chance to knock off a highly rated team. The Razors have already proven they can do just that as they beat Auburn here 11 days ago giving the Tigers their only SEC loss and just their 2nd loss of the entire season. Arkansas has won 10 of their last 11 games to move into 3rd place in the SEC, one game behind Tennessee. Their only loss during that 11 game stretch was @ Alabama by 1 point. The Vols are 3-3 on the road in conference play with all 3 of those wins coming vs teams that all currently have losing records in SEC play (Vandy, South Carolina, and Miss St). They’ve faced 3 top half of the conference teams on the road and lost all 3 vs Kentucky, LSU, and Alabama. The Vols have averaged just 69 PPG on the road and they are taking on an Arkansas team that put up 82 PPG at home and limits their opponents to just 65 PPG. Their defense ranks #1 in the SEC (conference games) in defensive efficiency and they are allowing opponents to hit only 29% of their 3’s which will be key vs a UT team that shoots a lot of them. The Razorbacks have been nearly unbeatable at home winning 32 of their las 34 games here at Bud Walton Arena and the last time UT won here was way back in 2009. We don’t get Arkansas at home as a low favorite like this very often and we’re going to take advantage of it. The Razors lost most recent meeting between these teams last January but that one was at Tennessee. Now they avenge that loss as they catch the Vols off the huge revenge win versus Kentucky. Great set up here and value with the home team and we take advantage of it.

#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler +8.5 over St Johns, Friday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played just 2 weeks ago and St Johns squeaked out a 75-72 win. The 3 point margin of victory was the Johnnies largest lead of the game and their first lead of the 2nd half came with just 4 minutes remaining in the game. STJ attempted 25 FT’s in the game (made 21) while Butler attempted just 5 FT’s (made 4) and yet still led for the majority of the 2nd half. We don’t expect that to happen again as ST John’s fouls more than any other team in the Big East. The Johnnies are also the worst FT shooting team in the conference hitting only 64% on the season yet made 84% in the first meeting. Butler is playing their best basketball of the season right now. After starting the Big East with a 2-6 record, the Bulldogs have now won 4 of their last 7 games and their 3 losses have come by a combined 7 points. Two of Butler’s top players, Nze and Hodges, missed their game @ DePaul on Tuesday and they still knocked off the Demons on the road. Both players are listed as game time decisions on Friday and we’ll keep a very close eye on that. If they both play, Butler can absolutely pull this upset. St John’s has already lost 5 home games this year including 4 in conference play. This has been a close series with 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less or in OT. Take the points here.

#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Robert Morris -14.5 over IUPUI, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IUPUI has 2 wins on the season vs Spalding and East West. No we didn’t make those up. They are 0-22 SU vs Division 1 teams and 0-13 in Horizon League play with 10 of those 13 losses coming by at least 30 points. Their offense is the worst in college basketball averaging just 51 PPG on the season. If you throw out their games vs the 2 non Division 1 opponents, IUPUI has reached 60 points ONE TIME in 22 games. They rank dead last in the country (358th) in offensive efficiency, 356th in eFG%, and 358th in turnover percentage coughing up the ball over 26% of the time! Laying big points vs this team isn’t as risky as most since they can’t score points and their possessions are limited due to their heavy TO rate. Robert Morris started the conference season losing 7 straight games but they have improved drastically going 5-5 since that poor start. They faced this IUPUI team on the road earlier this month and won by 17. The Colonials average 72 PPG at home which should be more than enough vs this inept IUPUI offense that doesn’t even average 50 PPG on the road (49 PPG). Not only are the Jaguars bad, they’ve gone through massive attrition this year. They are down to 6 scholarship players and that’s it. They have played no more than 6 players in any of their last 8 games. They have ONE player coming off the bench. This is a brutal spot for a thin, bad team as IUPUI is playing their 4th straight road game in the span of 8 days. They’ve traveled to Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and now Pennsylvania in the last 8 days. Another blowout awaits the Jaguars tonight.