Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Charlotte.  Bradley Beal miss the past two days for bereavement, but will be back on the court tonight, as Washington looks to extend its win streak to six games.  The Hornets are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  But Charlotte's a dreadful 5-23 ATS at home off 3 SU/ATS wins, including 1-15 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or less.  Take Washington.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Chicago Bulls.  Tonight, the Bulls will once again be without All-Star center Nikola Vucevic, as he's sidelined following a positive COVID-19 test.  His absence will be particularly noticeable tonight, given the Lakers' frontcourt strength.  I expect Anthony Davis, who had 34 points and 15 rebounds yesterday, to have another great game.  Los Angeles has won eight straight in this series (5-2-1 ATS), and it also falls into a 101-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off home wins.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Phoenix.   The Phoenix Suns are on a roll, with 8 straight wins, and 7 straight covers following last night's 115-89 victory in Houston.  Unfortunately, this will be a tough scheduling spot for Monty Williams' men.  First, it will be Phoenix's 3rd road game in four days.  And the Suns are unrested, while Minnesota is rested.  So, even though the Suns are playing great ball, we will fade them tonight.  And, for technical support, consider that since 1991, unrested NBA teams off 2 SU/ATS wins have covered just 19 of 64 when playing their 3rd road game in four days against a rested foe, including 1-15 ATS if our road team was favored, and owned a win percentage of .610 (or better).   Take Minnesota.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Denver.  Both of these teams come into this game off big wins.  Dallas blew out San Antone on Saturday, 123-109, while Denver ran past Portland last night, 124-95.  When these two Western Conference rivals met last month, the Nuggets blew out the Mavs in Denver, 106-75.  But that 31-point loss has triggered a very good 63% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams that lost their previous meeting by 30+ points.   Even worse for Denver:  it's 19-41-1 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points.  Take Dallas minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Detroit.  The Pistons upset Toronto, 127-121, as an 7.5-point road underdog, on Saturday for their 3rd win of the season.  But, as faithful followers know, I love to go against bad NBA teams, with sub-.300 records, off wins.  And especially if they're playing at home off a road win as an underdog of more than 7 points.  Dating back 32 seasons, our bad teams have covered just 42% off that upset win.  Take Sacramento minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings here, in Cleveland, between the clubs.  The Cavaliers won Round 1 on Saturday, by two points, so we'll take the Celts in the rematch.  Over the last 42 years, road favorites have cashed 62% of the 2nd of back to back regular season meetings, if they lost the first meeting SU/ATS.  Take Boston.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  We played on Minnesota last night, and were rewarded with a 107-83 blowout win against the LA Lakers.  Minny will now stay in Los Angeles to play the Clippers, and they'll be out for revenge since they lost twice at home to the Clippers earlier this month.  Unfortunately for L.A., it's 7-18 ATS at home in the regular season vs. double-revenge-minded opponents, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Take the Timberwolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Miami.  The Jazz come into this game off a home upset loss at the hands of the Indiana Pacers.   And they will no doubt be looking to make amends in this game -- also in front of their home faithful.  Last week, we played on the Miami Heat at home vs. Utah, and were rewarded with a 118-115 victory, as a 1-point underdog.  This afternoon, though, we will back the homestanding Jazz in this revenge match.  Utah is 52-32-1 ATS when priced from -3.5 and -8.5, and playing with revenge, if Utah was off a SU/ATS loss in its previous game.  And Utah's also won the last 3 meetings against the Heat here in Salt Lake City by 18, 15 and 27 points.  Take the Jazz to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  After a 3-1 start to the season, Minnesota has proceeded to lose its next 6 games, with most of the losses coming after it built up a significant, double-digit lead in the game.  Indeed, two games ago, it blew a 16-point lead vs. Memphis, and lost in overtime.  Then, in the game prior to that, it was up by 21 over the Clippers.  Minnesota was up by 13 over Orlando, and it also enjoyed a 14-point lead vs. Denver, before falling by 2 points, 93-91.  The T-Wolves just have to put four quarters together, rather than three.  Los Angeles will once again be without LeBron James tonight.  It's true that L.A. has won (and covered) its last two games.  But the Lakers are a soft 40-67-4 ATS at home in the regular season off back to back SU/ATS wins, including 14-26-3 ATS vs. a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Minnesota.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets come into this game off 3 straight wins, with the last two as home underdogs, while the Hawks have dropped 5 straight, with the last three on the road.  Unfortunately for Denver, winning teams, off back to back home dog wins, have covered just 31.2% since 1995 vs. foes off back-to-back losses.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Houston.   After starting the season with a difficult schedule (only 2 of Portland's first 12 opponents own a losing record), the Blazers get to (finally) step down in class tonight to play a really bad team.  Portland falls into a very 379-238 ATS system of mine which is based on playing on certain teams with much better win percentages than their foe.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are 1-10 SU/ATS as a home underdog vs. a foe off a loss.  Take Portland.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Kings come into this game off a blowout loss to San Antonio, 136-117.  But that was a difficult situation for Sacramento, as the Spurs were returning home off an upset loss.  Here, the Kings will be playing an opponent off 3 straight wins.  And Sacramento is a solid 33-17 ATS its last 50 road games off a road loss, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit loss.  The Thunder are 1-5 ATS as a home dog vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  Take Sacramento minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  After starting the season as an underdog in its first 12 games, the Cavaliers are favored for the first time tonight.  So, yes, it's true the Cavs went 9-3 ATS in the underdog role.  But the burden is greater when you're laying points rather than taking them.  And Cleveland is a horrid 2-13 ATS the past two seasons as a favorite.  Even worse, dating back to 2017, the Cavs are 25-54-2 ATS as a home favorite.  Take Detroit + the points.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors have sprinted out to a 9-1 record, but we will go against Steph Curry & Co. tonight.  Minnesota comes into this game on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, but .676 (or better) NBA teams have covered just 21 of 62 vs. foes off 5 SU/ATS losses.  Take Minnesota + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Denver.  Nikola Jokic has been suspended, so he won't play tonight.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Indiana.  The Pacers have covered four straight entering tonight, and are 18-8-2 ATS their last 28 as road favorites, including 9-1 ATS vs. Western Conference foes.  Lay the points with the Pacers.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Bulls upset Brooklyn, 118-95, on Monday.  But Chicago is 30-47 ATS at home off a home upset win.  And .700 (or better) NBA teams have cashed just 36% since 1997 at home off an upset home win.  Take Dallas.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over Memphis.  The Hornets have lost their last 5 games SU/ATS.  But NBA road dogs off 5 (or more) SU/ATS losses have covered 56.7% since 1990.  Take Charlotte.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over the New York Knicks.  The Knicks ripped the Bucks five days ago at Fiserv Center, 113-98.  But we'll grab the points with Milwaukee in this rematch, as the Bucks fall into a 137-68 ATS revenge system of mine.   Even better, the Bucks are 30-10-2 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a loss by 15+ points, including 14-2 ATS on the road.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  At 7-4, the Cavaliers are easily the most surprising team in this young seasons, and especially because they've been an underdog in all 11 games this season.  This will be the 12th straight game they're a dog (a streak which should end Friday vs. Detroit), and we'll fade Cleveland here, at home.  Indeed, winning teams, installed as a home underdog, have covered just 37.3% since 1990 off 4+ SU/ATS wins.  Take Washington.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Orlando.  The Nets were upset in their last game, 118-95, by Chicago, while Orlando pulled off an upset as a double-digit underdog, 107-100, vs. Utah.  Unfortunately, for the homestanding Magic, NBA teams off upset wins as double-digit underdogs have covered just 38% in the regular season over the past 32 years at home vs. foes off upset losses.  Take Brooklyn to bounce back with a resounding win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over the Lakers.  Last night, we played on the Hornets (and lost) against the Clippers, as Charlotte blew a 9-point lead with just over 7 minutes left in the game.  We'll come right back with Charlotte tonight, as NBA teams playing at Staples Center on back to back nights in the regular season have covered 59% after losing the first of two back-to-back meetings against the Clippers/Lakers.  Take Charlotte.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Miami Heat.  The Nuggets are on a 3-game ATS losing streak, which sets them up well tonight at home vs. Miami.  Denver is a powerful 22-2-1 ATS its last 25 regular season games vs. .400 (or better) foes, if Denver was off 3+ ATS losses.  Take the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Memphis.  After going into Milwaukee, and upsetting the Bucks, the T-wolves have gone on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak, which culminated with a 20-point loss on Saturday vs. the Clippers, after being up by 20 at one point in the game!  But Minnesota was outscored 57-27 in the 2nd half.  We'll take the T-wolves tonight + the points at Memphis, as Minny is 6-1 off back to back double-digit home losses, while the Grizzlies are a horrid 29-75 ATS vs. sub-.600 foes off losses by 18+ points.  Take Minnesota.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  In this young NBA season, there have been an awful lot of big blowouts, including seven by 30 (or more) points.  And one of these games occurred Friday, when Sacramento routed Charlotte, 140-110.  But 5 of the other 6 teams that lost by 30 points went on to cover the spread in their next game.  And I look for Charlotte to do the same here, as it falls into a 97-39 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout defeats.  Take the Hornets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Washington.  The Bucks blew a 21-point lead in their last game -- a 113-98 loss to New York.  But a hallmark of Mike Budenholzer's coaching tenure with the Bucks is that his team bounces back off losses, and especially in the regular season, where they are 48-18 SU and 41-25 ATS.  And one of the best subsets of that 41-25 applies tonight, as Milwaukee is 13-1 ATS as a road favorite in Eastern Conference games.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs are 6-4 and, improbably, all six wins have been of the upset variety.  Indeed, the Cavs have been underdogs in ALL 10 of their games this season.  Certainly, if they keep winning at a 60% clip, they'll start to be favored in a significant amount of games.  Still, Cleveland is a very young team, as all five of its starters are less than 25 years of age.  And young teams are prone to ups-and-downs.  I look for Cleveland to suffer one of those proverbial "bumps in the road" tonight, off their 3-game win streak.  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs of +7 (or more) points, off back to back upset wins in which they covered by 7+ points, have gone 66-90 ATS vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Take New York minus the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Utah.  We played against the Heat on Thursday, and were rewarded with a 95-78 blowout victory by Boston.  That game snapped Miami's five game win streak.  Tonight, we'll switch gears, and lay the points with Miami against the team which has had the league's #1 record over this, and last sesaon -- the Utah Jazz.  Miami falls into a great 94-42 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses, if they're matched up against a .677 (or better) foe off a straight-up win.  Additionally, .670 (or better) NBA teams have gone 159-106 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they're not favored by 3+ points.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Indiana.  To say the Trail Blazers' recent road trip was a failure would be an understatement, as it not only lost all three games, but it was favored to win each of them.  So, Portland returns home tonight to take on the Pacers, who upset the Knicks in their last game.  The good news for Portland is that it has won (and covered) its last three home games, with three blowout wins over the Suns (134-105), Grizzlies (116-96) and Clippers (111-92).  I look for Portland to win/cover its fourth straight home game tonight, as Indiana is a horrid 0-4 straight-up, and 1-3 ATS on the road, with its only cover by a mere 1.5 points.  Portland has won 11 of the last 12 meetings at home vs. Indiana, and has covered 8 of those 12.  Lay the points with the Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings between these clubs here in Minneapolis.  The T-Wolves lost, 126-111, in the first game.  But I love them to avenge that defeat tonight, as they fall into 185-122 and 141-73 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, NBA teams playing regular season back to back games against the same opponent have covered 60% if they lost at home by 15+ points in the first meeting.  Take the T-Wolves.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Wizards are 5-3, but have dropped their last two games to the Hawks and Raptors.  Tonight, they'll welcome the Grizzlies, who come into our Nation's Capitol off back to back home wins over the Nuggets.  We'll take Washington, as the Wizards are 26-11-1 ATS off back to back losses, when playing at home against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Wizards.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  Tonight's game will wrap up a 4-game home stand for the Lakers.  And L.A. has won the first three.  I don't expect a letdown tonight, especially given that the Thunder handed the Lakers a loss in Oklahoma City back on Oct. 27.  But Los Angeles was playing that night without rest.  And it also had to go to overtime in San Antonio the night before.  Here, Los Angeles is rested, and hasn't had to travel in over a week.  In his career, LeBron James' teams have gone 99-74-1 ATS as a rested, revenge-minded home favorite, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -11 to -14, and 45-29 ATS when playing with revenge from a road upset loss.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami, as it falls into a 313-217 ATS system of mine.  We played on the Celtics last night against Orlando, and were rewarded with a blowout win.  Tonight will be Boston's 3rd game in four nights, but we'll still come right back with Boston in this game, as it is a jaw-dropping 51-14 ATS as a road underdog when playing its 3rd game in four nights.  Take Boston + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz have picked up this regular season where they left off last regular season, as they're off to a 6-1 SU record, including back to back victories over the Bucks and Kings coming into tonight's game.  Meanwhile, Atlanta is 4-4 after losing in Brooklyn yesterday.  But it's also worth noting that it is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home. Even better:  the Hawks are a super 15-1 ATS their last 16 (and 73-34 ATS their last 107) at home off a loss, when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins, provided Atlanta wasn't favored by 3+ points.  Take the Hawks here, at home.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Sixers have to travel to the Motor City after playing (and beating) the Chicago Bulls, 103-98, last night in Philly.  Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested, as they haven't played since their blowout home loss on Tuesday, at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks.  Detroit was a 4.5-point home dog, yet lost that game by 28!  The good news is that rested, losing teams have covered 62.6% since 1990 as home dogs off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 23 points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent (and 75% ATS if its opponent was unrested).  Detroit also falls into one of my favorite systems, which is 288-189 ATS since 1990.  Take the Pistons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Sacramento.  We played on the Kings last night, as a big road underdog at Utah, and were rewarded with an easy game where the Kings were never losing against the spread.  But we will fade Sacramento as a home favorite tonight, as it's 18-38-4 ATS as a favorite when playing without rest, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss.  With the Pelicans, indeed, off a 12-point loss at Phoenix, we'll grab the points with New Orleans tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Spurs have been saddled with a difficult early schedule that's included games against Milwaukee (twice), Dallas, Denver and the Lakers.  And they've played well, and have covered the point spread by 2.5 ppg, on average.  In contrast, the Mavericks have NOT played well, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 8.64 ppg.  The Spurs did lose their last game, 131-118, at Indiana.  But the Spurs are 85-51 ATS at home off a double-digit loss, if their opponent wasn't off a double-digit loss.  Take San Antonio.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Memphis Grizzlies.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back games at Memphis between these teams.  We played on the Grizzlies as a 1.5-point favorite in the first game, on Monday.  But we'll take the revenge-minded road team tonight.  This game is also priced near pk'em, and when you get back to back competitively-priced regular season games between the same two teams, the loser of Game 1 has covered Game 2 a very good 73.6% of the time, including 89% on the road.  Take the Nuggets.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Cleveland.  We had a big play on the Cavaliers on Monday, and were rewarded with an outright win, as a 5-point road underdog, at Charlotte.  And that was Cleveland's 2nd straight ATS win, and 5th of its last 6 games.  But we will switch gears, and play against J.B. Bickerstaff's men tonight, as they'll take on a Trail Blazers club off back to back upset losses.  Unfortunately for the Cavs, they're a poor 47-74 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And Cleveland is also 7-15 ATS against the Blazers, including 1-7 ATS if Portland was off a SU/ATS loss.  Finally, Cleveland falls into negative 0-21 and 38-74 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams with .500 (or better) records off a win.  Lay the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  This was not the start that first-year head coach Ime Udoka had hoped for.  After losing in double-overtime on Saturday to the Wizards, the Celtics blew a 19-point lead in a 14-point defeat to the Chicago Bulls.  And that was the first time in the shot clock era that an NBA team entered the 4th quarter with a 14-point (or greater) lead, and lost by 14+ points.  I love the Celtics to rebound tonight, as Boston's scoring margin on the road this season is +3.5, while Orlando's scoring margin at home is -17.0.  Even better:  the Magic upset Minnesota, as an 8.5-point road underdog on Monday.  But home dogs off an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points have cashed just 40 percent over the last 32 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers and Rockets will play the 2nd of back-to-back games here, at Staples Center.  Los Angeles won Round 1 on Sunday night, as it bested Houston, 95-85, but failed to cover the 11-point spread.  We'll play against Los Angeles in this rematch, as the Lakers are an awful 4-17 ATS in the second of back-to-back regular season meetings vs. an opponent. including 1-11 ATS if they won the first meeting, straight-up.  And home favorites of more than 9 points are a poor 31-47 ATS in the 2nd of back to back regular season meetings vs. an opponent they defeated in their previous game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Utah Jazz.  These two teams met earlier this season in Sacramento, where the Jazz were favored by 6 points.  The game was tied in the late stages at 95, but Utah finished the game on a 15-6 run to cover the number.  The game was evenly played except around the 3-point arc, where Utah dominated, as it made 16 long-distance shots to Sacramento's 8.  Still, the Kings have been competitive this season, as they've only lost one game by 10+ points, so I expect another highly competitive game this evening.  This will be the Kings' 4th (and final) road game on a 4-game trek, and they're 32-17 ATS on the road off a road defeat.  Even better:  Sacramento is 27-14 ATS as a revenge-minded road underdog, including a virtually perfect 11-1 ATS when priced from +6 to +9.5 points.  Take the Kings + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Denver.  This is the first of a back-to-back 2-game set between these clubs in Memphis (they'll also play Wednesday).  We'll take the homestanding Grizzlies tonight, as Denver comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, including an upset win at Minnesota on Saturday.  Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they're 41-69 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win, including 6-26 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  Memphis, on the other hand, checks in off a 129-103 upset loss to Miami here, two nights ago.  But rested home teams, off a home upset loss by more than 25 points, have gone 53-34 ATS.  Lay the points with the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The Hawks have played six games this season:  two at home, four on the road.  And they're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS at home, but a winless 0-4 ATS on the road.  The good news for Atlanta is that it's back home tonight to take on a Wizards team which defeated it by 11 this past Thursday.  The Hawks are an awesome 52-24-3 ATS at home if they lost the previous meeting to their opponent by more than 10 points, if their foe was off back to back wins, including 14-1-1 ATS their last 16.  And the Wizards are a wallet-busting 36-78 ATS on the road, if they won the previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Take Atlanta minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  We played on each of Boston and Chicago as underdogs on Saturday, and won easily with Chicago, but lost a heartbreaker on Boston in double-overtime.  We'll come right back with Boston tonight, in this home game vs. the Bulls, as Boston is 20-8-2 ATS off back-to-back ATS losses, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes that covered by 10+ in their previous game.  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 18-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they weren't favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Take Boston.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte.  After ripping off 3 straight upset wins against Atlanta, Denver and the Los Angeles Clippers, the Cavaliers played the Lakers evenly before fading in the 4th quarter, in a 12-point loss (as a 7.5-point underdog).  We actually played against Cleveland in that game, so we were happy with that result.  The Cavs followed up that loss with a 9-point defeat in Phoenix, but covered the 10-point spread for their 4th cover in their last five games -- all on the road.  Cleveland's 6-game road trip will conclude tonight in Charlotte, and the Cavs will benefit from Charlotte having to play the 2nd day of a back-to-back set.  So far, in this early NBA season unrested teams are a soft 3-6 ATS vs. foes off a loss, and underdogs off back to back losses are 12-1 ATS vs. foes off a win.  I really like the way the Cavs are playing.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento.  The Mavs were annihilated by Portland, 106-75, on Friday.  But we'll take Luka Doncic to rebound on Sunday, as the Mavs are a super 18-1-1 ATS at home off a SU/ATS road loss, if they're playing a non-division foe off a straight-up win.  Even better:  Dallas is 91-47-1 ATS off a loss by more than 20 points.  Lay the points with the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz come into this game off a blowout win at Houston two nights ago, and remain the NBA's lone undefeated team.  Chicago also was undefeated but, after ripping off 4 wins to start the season, it lost its first game when it was upset here, at home, by the Knicks on Thursday night.  However, I love Chicago to bounce back tonight as a home underdog, as home teams with a .740 (or better) win percentage have gone 110-68-4 ATS off an upset loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS win (including 81-44 vs. non-division foes).  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks went into the Alamo City earlier this season, and handed Gregg Popovich's crew a 10-point loss.  Still, the Spurs were competitive in defeat, and only failed to cover the spread by 4.0 points.  For the season, San Antonio has had a chance to win each of its five games.  So, even though it's 1-4 straight-up, it has gone 3-2 ATS, and has covered the spread by an average of 2.40 ppg.  That compares favorably with Milwaukee's point spread differential, which is -3.10 ppg.  And the Spurs also have a better scoring margin than Milwaukee thus far, as the Spurs have outscored their foes by 0.20 ppg, while the Bucks have a negative scoring margin of -0.80 ppg.  Finally, San Antonio has cashed 62.5% in the regular season off 3+ losses, provided it's either rested, or favored in the game.  Take the Spurs.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the Toronto Raptors.  The Pacers come into this game on a 3-game losing streak, including a SU/ATS loss in their most recent home game -- a 119-109 setback to the Milwaukee Bucks this past Monday.  But Indiana generally doesn't play poorly in consecutive home games, and fail to cover the spread in each.  And especially not if it's favored in the 2nd home game following an ATS loss in the previous home game.  Then, the Pacers are a solid 256-203-10 ATS, including 45-26 ATS off 3+ losses.  Take Indiana minus the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS records.  Interestingly, Atlanta has yet to cover the spread on the road this season, as it's 0-3 ATS, while the Sixers are winless ATS at home, with an 0-2 ATS record.  So, something will have to give tonight.  We'll go against the Hawks, as the 76ers will be out to avenge their 7-game playoff series defeat at the hands of Atlanta in last season's quarterfinals.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, while Philly is 25-13 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  And Philly also falls into 65.7% and 60.1% ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take the Sixers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Washington Wizards.  This is a big revenge game for Boston, which lost at home to the Wizards by nine points, on Wednesday.  We'll take the points with Ime Udoka's men, as Boston is 20-4 ATS as revenge-minded road underdogs vs. .636 (or better) non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-breaking 8-26 ATS at home off an upset win, if its foe is playing with revenge.  Take the Celtics + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers come into this game off back to back upset wins over Denver and the LA Clippers.  And Cleveland covered each of those two victories by 21+ points!  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs of +7 (or more) points, off back to back covers by 21+ points, have gone 0-16 SU and 3-12-1 ATS since March, 1991, including 0-7 ATS their last 7.  Moreover,  LeBron James' teams have cashed 64.4% in his career vs. foes off back-to-back upset wins, while the Lakers are 27-16 ATS as favorites of more than 2 points vs. foes off back to back upsets.   With Los Angeles in off an 8-point upset loss to the Thunder, as a 6-point favorite,  we'll play on L.A. to make amends with a rout of Cleveland.  Lay the points with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Utah.  The Jazz blew out Denver by 12 points in their last game to move to 3-0 this season.  They'll now play the 1-3 Rockets, who come into this game off a double-digit loss at Dallas.  Tonight's game, though, is in Houston, where the Rockets' margin of victory is +11.5 this season.  Utah has been installed as a huge road favorite.  Unfortunately, non-division road favorites are an awful 3-21 ATS at Houston off back to back ATS wins, if the Rockets were not off a SU/ATS win.  And the Jazz also fall into a negative 28-70 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off ATS wins.  Grab the points with the home underdog Rockets on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Blazers were blown out by 30 points by the Clippers two nights ago here, at home, while Memphis dropped a 121-118 decision to the Lakers.  We'll take Portland tonight, as it falls into an 86-39 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams off blowout losses.  Even better:  the Grizzlies have covered just 14 of 58 road games against foes off a loss by more than 15 points, provided Memphis also wasn't off a loss by more than 15.  Take the Trail Blazers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Knicks come into this game off an upset loss (as a huge 12-point favorite) at the hands of the Orlando Magic on Sunday.  We played against New York in that game (as it was a big revenge match for the Magic), but we'll switch gears and lay the points with New York tonight, as revenge situations don't get much better than this.  Philadelphia has won each of the 15 meetings over the previous four seasons vs. New York.  Of course, the 76ers were favored to win all 15 of those games, so not really surprising that they did (the last time New York won SU, was also the last time it was favored vs. Philly).  But the Knicks have more talent now than they did a few years ago, and will be much more competitive vs. Philly this season.  New York falls into a 65-26 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off horrible losses, and it also falls into a 74% ATS revenge system of mine based on its play against the 76ers.  The Knicks are 21-6 ATS at home when not getting 2+ points, while Philly is 5-19-2 ATS on the road when not laying 2+ points.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Minnesota.  These teams are meeting for the 2nd straight game, as the T-Wolves won Round 1, 96-89, as a 7.5-point home favorite.  We'll take New Orleans in this rematch, as Minnesota is an awful 80-133 ATS as a rested home favorite, priced from -2 to -9.5 points.  Also, the Pelicans fall into a 121-83 ATS revenge system of mine.  That angle plays on .200 (or worse) revenge-minded road teams that are rested, and off a loss in their previous game.  Take the Pelicans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Bulls are 3-0 to start the season, but have played an exceptionally easy schedule, with two games against Detroit, and one against New Orleans.  And neither the Pelicans nor the Pistons have won a game this season (they're 0-5 combined).  We'll go against the Bulls tonight, as undefeated teams, off back to back wins by 15+ points, have covered just 36% since 1990 when not favored by 5+ points.  Take Toronto as a home underdog on Monday.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The Nets lost their home opener yesterday, 111-95, to the Charlotte Hornets.  We'll take Brooklyn to bounce back tonight against the 2-0 Wizards, as home favorites of more than 6 points, off a loss in their home opener, have cashed 73% since 1991 against conference foes.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of their back-to-back games here at Staples Center.  Last night, Memphis upset the Clippers, 120-114, as a 4-point underdog.  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs have only covered 33% over the last 32 seasons when playing back to back nights against the Clippers and Lakers, if they won outright on the first night.   That doesn't bode well for Memphis tonight.  Nor does it help matters that Los Angeles has started the season 0-2 here at Staples Center, and will be looking to get off the schneid tonight.  Indeed, this is the 9th time since 1990 that an NBA team opened the season with 3 straight home games, and dropped their first two.  Of those eight previous teams, only 1 of them (Golden State, 2004) failed to cover the spread in its 3rd home game.  The Lakers are also 16-11 ATS their last 27 vs Memphis, and they're 11-4 ATS at home off back to back home ATS losses, when playing a foe off an ATS win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Houston Rockets.  The Ime Udoka Era hasn't started off well for the 0-2 Celtics.  But I love them to break into the Win Column on this Sunday evening.  The Celts lost at home to Atlantic division rival, Toronto, on Friday, 115-83, as a 7-point favorite.  But Boston is an awesome 31-8 ATS its last 39 off an upset loss to a division foe, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat.  Meanwhile, Houston's 0-11 ATS vs. rested foes that don't own a winning record, provided Houston wasn't favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Celtics minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the New York Knicks.  The Magic and Knicks are playing back to back games this weekend.  New York took the first meeting in Orlando, on Friday, 121-96, so the Magic will be playing with revenge here, at Madison Square Garden.  We'll grab the double-digits, as road teams playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat in their previous game to the same opponent have gone 83-53 ATS since 1990, including 20-9 ATS when getting 12+ points.  Take Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns went into Staples Center last night, and upset the Los Angeles Lakers, 115-105.  But off that big win, we'll fade Chris Paul & Co. tonight in Portland.  This is Phoenix's 3rd game in four nights to open the season.  And NBA teams in this season-opening scheduling situation have gone 5-20 ATS in Game 3 off an upset win, if their opponent was off a SU loss.  With the Blazers off an upset loss to Sacramento in their opener, we'll take Portland minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Chicago.  This is a tough spot for Chicago, as it is unrested after defeating New Orleans here last night.  It's also a big revenge game for Detroit, which lost at home, 94-88, to the Bulls to open the season.  We'll take Detroit in this road game, as it's 19-7 ATS its last 26 off a SU home loss, while Chicago is a money-burning 6-19 ATS at home off a SU win, if it's playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Pistons.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Toronto.  The Mavericks were blown out on the road by Atlanta, 113-87 to open its season, and will look to bounce back tonight against an unrested Raptors team.  Toronto played last night in Boston, and blew out the Celtics, 115-83.  Dallas has been tremendous over the years off a SU road loss when matched up against a foe off a win, as it's 68-27-4 ATS.  And NBA teams off a loss by 15+ points in their season opener have covered 73% vs. foes off a 15 point (or greater) victory.  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Both of these teams come into this game off season-opening wins.  The Kings upset Portland, 124-121, while Utah routed Oklahoma City, 107-86.  We'll back Sacramento as a home underdog in its home opener, as rested, winning underdogs have cashed 64% of their home openers the past 42 years, if they were off an upset win in their previous game.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won their season opener at Phoenix, on Wednesday.  And that was a big revenge win for Denver, as the Suns swept the Nuggets out of the Playoffs last season with a 4-0 series win in the quarter-finals.  We'll take the Spurs as a road underdog, as Denver's a poor 37-64-1 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of more than 3 points off a road upset win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Chicago.  The Bulls enter tonight's game off a 94-88 victory over the Detroit Pistons.  We'll grab the points with New Orleans, as Chicago is 35-57 ATS when favored by 3 (or more) points at home off a SU win.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Nets were throttled, 127-104, in their opener by Milwaukee, while Philly blew out New Orleans, 117-97.  But we'll go against the 76ers in their home opener, as they've covered just one of seven home openers vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  And the Nets are a solid 25-7 ATS vs. .500 (or better) opposition when priced from -4 to +6.5 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Washington.  When these two teams last met, the Wizards bounced the Pacers out of the playoffs with a 142-115 blowout in the Play-In round.  I look for Indiana to avenge that playoff ouster tonight with an upset win.  The Pacers lost a tough one in Charlotte on Wednesday, as they were a 1.5-point road favorite, but blew a 23-pont lead, and lost by a single point, 123-122.  But Indiana is a super 76-42 ATS as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset loss.  Meanwhile, the Wizards upset Toronto, 98-83 on Wednesday.  But the Wizards are a wallet-busting 18-45 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe, if they were off an upset win.  And they're 37-64 ATS off an upset win by more than 10 points.  Take the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 4-0 as a home underdog in their home openers since 2010, and they won each of those four games outright.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a horrid 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in their road openers, including 1-6-1 ATS if their opponent wasn't off a win.  And Charlotte's 7-14-1 ATS its last 21 vs. the Cavaliers.  Take Cleveland.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors upended the Los Angeles Lakers, 121-114, on Tuesday night.  But off that upset win, we will fade the Warriors here against the Clippers.  Golden State is an ugly 0-10-1 its last 11 off an upset win, if priced in its current game from -2 to -6 points.  Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 11-0 ATS its last 11 on the road vs. a foe off an upset win.  And LA is also 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers.  Take the Clippers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Milwaukee got its title defense off to a winning start with a blowout of Brooklyn on Tuesday night.  But off that win, we will fade Milwaukee tonight, as NBA defending champs have covered just 36.8% in their first road game of the season following a win at home in their previous game.  Moreover, the Heat are 9-4 ATS their last 13 home openers, and they're 11-4 their last 15 regular season games when installed as a home underdog vs. a foe off a win.  Grab the points with Erik Spoelstra's men tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last season, we cashed the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) to win the NBA title, and also cashed our preseason pick on Baylor (at 12-1 odds) in College Basketball to win the NCAA championship.  This season, our preseason NBA pick is on the Brooklyn Nets (currently at +260 at BetOnline) to win the title.  And we'll take them in this season-opening game against the team which ousted them from the quarterfinals last season.  But it was the narrowest of victories for Mike Budenholzer's men, as Kevin Durant was just two inches in front of the three-point arc on what turned out to be a game-tying (rather than a game-winning) shot.  However, Brooklyn outscored Milwaukee in that 7-game series by 2.86 ppg, and were (in my eyes) the better team, even in defeat.  But I was more than happy to have the Bucks win that series, and eventually the NBA title.  Now, it's a new season, and we'll take James Harden & Co. to avenge that playoff loss, and get Brooklyn off to a 1-0 start.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Mike Budenholzer's men come into this Game 6 off wins in each of the three previous games, including an upset win on Saturday night in Phoenix.  Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been consistently awful off three (or more) wins, as it's 98-166-7 ATS, including 1-9 ATS since March 24, 2021.  Even worse, if the Bucks are off an upset win, and playing a rested opponent, then they're 1-20 ATS when priced from +3 to -8 points, including 0-13 ATS their last 13.  That doesn't bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. tonight.  And neither does the fact that .667 (or worse) teams, up 3-games-to-2 in a series, are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of more than 2 points off an upset win!  The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS their last seven off a home upset loss.  Grab the points with Phoenix tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Suns and Bucks have traded 2 SU/ATS wins -- each winning (and covering) the two games on their own home court.  The scene now moves back to the Valley of the Sun, and that bodes well for Phoenix.  As I mentioned in our analysis of Game 3, Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season at home, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, though, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, as the Suns have a negative point spread differential of -.02, so Phoenix's home/road differential is +3.42. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 35-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.86 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's road/home point spread differential is -4.52 ppg on the road, while Phoenix's home/road point spread differential is +3.42 -- a relative difference of +7.94.  That's the primary reason we are backing the Suns on Saturday night.  But it also bodes well that the Suns were competitive in defeat on Wednesday.  They led for much of Game 4, and only lost by six points.  This season, NBA teams off SU/ATS playoff losses by six points (or less) are 14-2 ATS.  Take the Suns to bounce back in Game 5.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  We played on the Bucks in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 20-point win.  But off that blowout loss, we'll take Chris Paul & Co. to bounce back on Wednesday.  The Suns are a super 20-7 ATS off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU win.  Even better:  over the last 31 NBA Finals, teams off losses in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points have covered 70.3% of the time away from home, including 87% if priced from +2.5 to +8.5 points.  Take the Suns as a road underdog on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total.  We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5.  It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220.  Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors.  The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games.  That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight.  In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time.  Even better:  Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under' in Game 4.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns drew first (and second) blood in this series with back-to-back blowout wins over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Of course, those two games were in the Valley of the Sun, where Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, and that's the key factor for our play on the Bucks on Sunday night.  The Suns have only covered the spread by 0.36 ppg on the road this season, which is 3.04 ppg less than they do at home.  Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 33-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.56 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg).  So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's home/road point spread differential is +4.22 ppg at home, while Phoenix's road/home point spread differential is -3.04 -- a relative difference of +7.26.  So, while many will overreact to the Suns' dominance on their home court, we will not.  Instead, we'll look for a reversal here, in Milwaukee.  And, for technical support, consider that home favorites (or PK) have covered the point spread 90% over the last 31 years in Game 3 of a Playoff series after losing Game 2, if their relative home/road point spread differential was at least 6 points better than their opponent's relative road/home point spread differential.  Additionally, Milwaukee is 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when not favored by more than 5 points.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total.  The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals.  But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992.  Take Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Phoenix.  We played on the Suns in Game 1 of this series, and were rewarded with a relatively easy 13-point win, 118-105.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and take the road underdog, as we look for Milwaukee to level the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, Milwaukee had the distinction in this year's Playoffs to be one of only two teams (along with the Clippers) that had a win percentage of .636 both this season, and last season.  One of the things I love to do in the NBA Finals is to take these strong teams off a SU/ATS loss, provided they're not laying more than 4 points.  Since 1991, they've covered 71.9% of the time.  That bodes well for Mike Budenholzer's men tonight.  As does the fact that Phoenix is a woeful 41-71-3 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points off a double-digit home win, when matched up against a rested opponent.  Take the Bucks as a road underdog in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  Over the last 22 seasons, the NBA's Western conference has been dominant against the Eastern conference, as its teams have won 56.46% of the games.  And this season was no different, as the West went 242-208 (53.77%) vs. the East.  This intriguing NBA Finals match-up will pit the #2-seeded Suns (who last made the Finals in 1993) against the #3-seeded Bucks (who last made the Finals in 1974, when they were a Western conference team).  Prior to the season, I predicted the Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  Unfortunately, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, sustained an injury in Game 4 vs. Atlanta, so he won't be at 100%, even if he suits up for all the games.  But regardless of Antetokounmpo's health, this Game 1 is a horrible situation for the Bucks.  Indeed, Eastern conference teams are 0-12 straight-up, and 1-11 ATS since 2005 when playing away from home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a Western conference foe with a better record.  The closest that any of these 12 Eastern conference teams has come in Game 1 was in 2015, when Cleveland lost to Golden State by eight points, as a 6-point underdog.  And the only time an Eastern conference team has covered away from home in Game 1 since 2005 was in 2018, when the Cavs lost by 10, as a 13-point underdog to the Warriors.  Finally, each of these two finalists has done much better vs. the point spread at home, than on the road.  The Suns have covered by 3.25 ppg at home (compared to 0.36 ppg on the road), while the Bucks have covered by 1.56 ppg at Milwaukee (compared to -2.47 ppg away from home).  This is key, as NBA finalists, since 1991, have gone 9-0 SU/ATS at home in Game 1 when their home point spread differential was 1.75 ppg greater than their opponent's road point spread differential.  Take the Phoenix Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Tuesday's 110-88 loss by Milwaukee was doubly-painful, as their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, went down in a heap in the 3rd quarter.  So, this will be the sternest test yet for Mike Budenholzer's Bucks, as they'll have to play tonight's critical Game 5 without the services of their superstar.  But I believe they're up to the task.  The good news for Budenholzer is that they've had ample experience over the last few seasons to play games without their MVP.  This year, Milwaukee went 6-5 without him in the lineup.  Budenholzer -- a Gregg Popovich protege -- will emphasize ball movement, and player movement, and rely on his team's "corporate knowledge," system, and talent to win out.  Atlanta is a horrible 48-88-2 ATS vs. rested opponents off a 20-point (or worse) defeat, including 0-13-1 ATS on the road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points vs. .540 (or better) foes.  And NBA Playoff teams have cashed 67.8% over the last 31 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 21 points, and don't have an inferior record than their opponent.  Take Milwaukee tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Los Angeles Clippers.  We played on the Clippers in Game 4, as they were a big road underdog, and down 2 games in the series.  Los Angeles easily won by 14, as a 6.5-point underdog (covering the spread in Game 5 by 20.5 points).  They're still down now (though only by one game), but the point spread is considerably shorter.  That's enough reason for me to take the road team in this close-out Game 6.  Indeed, road teams up 3-games-to-2 have historically done very well in Game 6, as they're 66-40 ATS, including 32-13 ATS off an ATS loss in Game 5.  Moreover, .655 (or better) teams have gone 33-15 ATS off a playoff loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points, if they were not favored by more than 1 point in the current game.  Finally, the Suns are 32-14 ATS on the road when rested, off a loss, and not getting more than three points.  And they're 57-31-1 ATS off a point spread loss by more than 20 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Phoenix Suns.  Phoenix leads this series three-games-to-one, even though it has been outscored 403-400 in the four games.  Certainly, with just a little more good fortune, the Clippers could be tied, or even leading this series.  We'll grab the points with Los Angeles, as teams down 3-games-to-1 that have actually outscored their opponent over the three previous games combined, have gone 14-7 ATS in the NBA playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  .600 (or better) underdogs of more than 5 points, off a loss, and down exactly two games in a playoff series, have gone 7-0 ATS away from home since 2015, and 22-7 ATS since 1993.  The Clippers are 30-12 ATS away from home off a straight-up loss.  Take LA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  The #5-seeded Hawks are trying to win their 3rd straight NBA Playoff series without home court advantage -- something which rarely happens in the chalk-heavy NBA.  Atlanta won Game 1 outright, 116-113, as an 8-point road favorite.  But my money is against the Hawks duplicating that feat tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams, seeded #5 or worse, off back to back playoff wins, are a poor 2-34 SU and 7-29 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that Milwaukee is a reliable 28-3 SU and 23-8 ATS as a home favorite of 4 (or more) points off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Bucks know that they need to win tonight's game, lest they be forced to win at least 2 of 3 games on Atlanta's home court (a venue where Atlanta is 22-4 SU its last 26).  Take Milwaukee minus the points in this critical Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  Before the start of the season, I published my NBA futures selection, and predicted the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  But, for much of the season, it did not look like it would come to fruition, as the Bucks, frankly, underwhelmed.  After finishing with the #1 margin of victory in each of 2019 (8.87), and 2020 (10.08), the Bucks took a major step back this season, and only outscored their opponents by 5.89 points per game.  Still, that was good enough for #1 in the Eastern Conference, and #3, overall.  Indeed, only the Utah Jazz (9.25) and Los Angeles Clippers (6.18) ranked ahead of the Bucks at the end of the regular season.  Atlanta, meanwhile, was a distant ninth (2.32).  It's true that the Bucks were unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs the past two seasons, notwithstanding their #1 ranking in victory margin.  The Toronto Raptors eliminated the Bucks in 2019, while Miami sent the Bucks packing last season.  But a primary reason for Milwaukee's failures was its subpar play away from home.  However, when playing in front of its home faithful, Milwaukee has actually maintained its strong regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Including this season (and dating back to 2018), Milwaukee is 14-2 straight-up, and 11-5 ATS at home, and has covered the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg.  This season, Milwaukee took 2 of the 3 meetings vs. Atlanta, including the only meeting here, in Milwaukee (129-115, on Jan. 24).  The Hawks did defeat the Bucks, as a 5.5-point home underdog, in the most recent meeting (on April 25).  But that's not necessarily a good thing as, in the NBA semi-finals or finals, revenge-minded teams have gone 13-0 ATS at home in the first game of a Playoff series, if they were not getting 4+ points.  Moreover, Atlanta is a wallet-busting 46-76-1 ATS on the road if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting.  Finally, the Hawks are a horrid 7-32 SU and 8-31 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total.  We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each.  For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring.  Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points!  One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks.  So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games).  Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%.  This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg.  For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total.  These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220.  The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks.  But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points.  The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough.  And we'll look for another 'under' tonight.  Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season.  Even better:  Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less.  Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3.  Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This series is emblematic of the injury woes that have been front-and-center for the NBA this Playoffs season.  Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard for the remainder of this series, while Utah has been playing without Mike Conley, but with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell (both Conley and Mitchell are officially listed as 'questionable' for this game).  We'll take Utah to bounce back off its Game 5 loss, as it is 34-14 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a SU/ATS home loss.  And road favorites have cashed 73% off back to back playoff losses since 2004.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  Philadelphia has had a great season, as it won 55 regular season games.  But if it doesn't win its next two games, it will be on the golf course next week.  We'll lay the small number on the road tonight, as NBA teams with a win percentage greater than .600, off back to back upset losses, have cashed 64.4% since 1991 when playing away from home, and not laying more than 4 points.  Take Philly.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks to go 'under' the total.  The 76ers now face elimination after back to back upset losses to the Hawks.  But teams tend to go 'under' after back to back upset playoff defeats, as they've gone 'under' in 52 of 82 games.  And the Sixers have gone 'under' in 27 of 41 road games when installed as a favorite.  Take the 'under.'

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks fell apart on Tuesday and blew a 17-point lead to put them in a precarious spot.  Milwaukee must win its next two games, or it will once again be labeled a post-season paper tiger.  One thing Milwaukee can certainly hang its hat on is that it is an awesome 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home over the last four post-seasons.  Even better, over the last 31 years, home favorites of more than 4 points, that failed to cover their previous game by 7+ points, have cashed 69% in Playoff elimination games if they trailed in the series by exactly 1 game.  Milwaukee has won all four home games this season vs. Brooklyn (3-1 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS its last 13 home games in this series.  And it's 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off an upset loss.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Utah's been terrific at home this season, as it's 35-6 SU, and has covered the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg (compared to a negative mark (-1.10 ppg) on the road).  Meanwhile, the Clippers have also performed better this season at its home at Staples Center than it has done on the road (a .136 differential).  So, it's not exactly a surprise that the Jazz won both home games, while they lost both road games.  The good news for Utah is that it's back home in Salt Lake City tonight.  The Jazz are 59-36-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 13-7-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 67-115-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) revenge-minded opponents, including 6-25-1 ATS if their foe lost the season's two previous meetings!  Finally, when playing at home, and not laying 10+ points, the Jazz are 21-2 SU their last 23, and 20-3 ATS, including 11-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 7 points.  Take Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks leveled this series at 2 games apiece with a 107-96 upset win in Game 4.  Even worse for Brooklyn:  the Nets are down two stars, with G Kyrie Irving and G James Harden sidelined.  But it would be a mistake to think they're devoid of talent -- especially with Kevin Durant on the court.  And with the Nets being installed as a sizable home underdog for this pivotal Game 5, we'll grab the points with the wounded underdog.  Indeed, .600 (or better) NBA underdogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 75% since 1991 in the Playoffs if they were off a double-digit upset loss, and matched up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .700.  Moreover, Milwaukee is a wallet-busting 12-22 ATS off a double-digit home upset win, while Brooklyn is a solid 42-28 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, and 7-3 this season as a home underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Clippers in Game 3, and got the $$$$ with an easy 132-106 blowout win.  But off that 26-point loss, we'll take the Jazz to bounce back at Staples Center tonight.  For technical support, consider that .714 (or better) teams have gone 32-10 ATS as underdogs off a loss by more than 21 points!  Even better:  the Clippers are an awful 67-115 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes with a .589 (or better) win percentage, including 11-27 ATS in the playoffs.  Take Utah + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia.  After upsetting the #1-seeded 76ers in Game 1, 128-124, the Hawks suffered back-to-back blowout losses (118-102, 127-111).  But off those two 16-point defeats, we'll grab the points with Atlanta in this critical Game 4.  Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 62% at home in the Playoffs after back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Moreover, Philadelphia is an awful 6-23-1 ATS on the road, when favored by 10 points or less, if the 76ers were off back to back wins, and owned a win percentage of .625 (or better).  And Atlanta is 11-1 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points off back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Hawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Phoenix.  The Nuggets are down 3-games-to-none, but I wouldn't count them out of Game 4 -- especially because they're playing at home, and have been installed as an underdog.  Indeed, home underdogs of less than 8 points, that trail in a 7-game series, three-games-to-none, have actually done quite well against the spread, with a 28-20-3 ATS record since 1991, including 8-1-1 ATS if our home underdog's win percentage was .625 (or better).  Moreover, Denver has been terrific at home off a straight-up home loss, when it's owned a winning record, as it's 6-0-1 ATS its last seven (and 23-12-2 ATS its last 37).  Meanwhile, Phoenix has covered just one of its last seven as road favorites vs. winning teams.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total.  All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235).  And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points.  So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough.  We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points.  Even better:  in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  After dropping the first two games of this series, the Clippers cannot afford to go down three-games-to-none.  Los Angeles was in a similar spot in its last series -- vs. Dallas -- and rebounded from a 2-0 deficit to win that series in seven games.  While Utah is no doubt a much more difficult foe than the Mavericks, the Clippers will be able to draw inspiration from that Mavericks series, and I believe that will serve them well in this Game 3.  One fact stands out about the Jazz:  they are dominating at home this season, as they're 35-6 SU, 27-14 ATS, and covering the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg.  But they're actually failing to cover the spread by 0.35 ppg on the road!  That doesn't bode well for Utah tonight.  Nor does the fact that .610 (or better) NBA favorites of -3+ points, down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have covered 60% over the past 31 seasons.  Finally, since Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers, they're a solid 31-18 ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss, including 7-1 ATS vs. .625 (or better) opponents.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Utah tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.