Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Miami Heat.  These two teams met on Saturday here, in Miami.  And the Heat edged the Raptors, 112-109, for their first win of the season.  Unfortunately for Miami, losing teams have covered just 32.1% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back home meetings, if they won the first of the two meetings, straight-up.  Take Toronto + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Indiana.  The Sixers are off to a poor 0-3 start.  But I love Philly to bounce back strong tonight, on Monday, as winless, double-digit favorites have covered 71% over the past 33 seasons vs. foes not off back-to-back losses.  Lay the points with the Sixers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Clippers.  We played against Phoenix on Friday, and got the $$$ when the Trail Blazers upset them, 113-111, in overtime.  Tonight, we'll back the Suns, as they're 52-19 ATS off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  We played against Golden State on Friday, and took Denver as our NBA Game of the Month.  And the Nuggets pulled off the upset win.  But we'll switch gears and take Golden State tonight, as it's 35-12 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Golden State was off a straight-up loss.  Take the Warriors.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland.  The Blazers have opened the season with back-to-back upset wins over the Kings and Suns, while the Lakers dropped their first two games to the Warriors and Clippers.  We'll take Los Angeles as teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 63% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back upset wins to start the season.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Chicago Bulls.  The Cavaliers have a big advantage tonight, in terms of rest.  Cleveland has had the last 2 days off, while Chicago had to play last night in Washington, against the Wizards.  Over the last 33 seasons, rested NBA teams have covered 70.2% in their 2nd game of the season, if their opponent was unrested, and our rested team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antone.  The Spurs pulled off an upset win last night against the Indiana Pacers, while Philly lost its home opener to Milwaukee in its previous game.  The Sixers will get a 2nd crack at the apple here, at home, on Saturday evening.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as double-digit home favorites have covered 75% since 1990 off a loss in their home opener when matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Phoenix.  The Trail Blazers are a solid 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in their home openers, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Moreover, home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 67% in their home openers since 1990 if they were not unrested, and their opponent was off a home win.  Grab the points with the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors opened up the season with a blowout win over LeBron James' Lakers, 123-109. And they'll look to make it two-in-a-row tonight against a team many feel will win the title.  The Nuggets are healthy this year, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. back on the court.  Unfortunately, their presence didn't lead to a good result in Game 1, as Denver was shellacked by the Utah Jazz, 123-102.  But off that embarrassing loss, we'll take Denver to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 28-11 ATS in the regular season off a loss by 15+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 7+ points.  Even better:  defending NBA champs -- who generally receive their championship rings in the opening game -- often have letdowns in Game 2, and are a soft 2-11 ATS in their 2nd game of the season if they were playing an opponent not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Boston Celtics.  Miami was upset, 116-108, by the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.  We'll take the Heat to bounce back on Friday, as they're 44-13 ATS vs. conference rivals, if the Heat were off an upset loss, and their opponent was off a win.  Take Miami.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  The Nets lost their first home game of the season, 130-108, to the New Orleans Pelicans.  Brooklyn is back at home for Game 2, and NBA home teams that were upset in their home opener typically do much better in their 2nd home game of the season, including 64.2% since 1990 vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Toronto in off a 108-105 victory over Cleveland, as a 2-point home favorite, we'll fade Toronto tonight, and lay the points with Brooklyn.

At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics on the MONEYLINE, to win straight-up, against the Golden State Warriors.  The Celtics come into this Game 6 -- an elimination game -- off back to back double-digit losses.  They fell by 10 points, 107-97, in Game 4.  And then they lost, 104-94, on Monday night in San Francisco.  We'll take Boston to level this series at 3 games apiece, as NBA teams, favored by 3+ points, have gone 56-11 straight up in the Playoffs (and 44-22-1 ATS) off back to back double-digit losses (including 12-2 straight-up in elimination games).  Even better:  the Warriors are 19-36 straight up (and 20-35 ATS) as road underdogs of less than 6 points, if they were off back to back wins.  And Boston has gone 13-2 straight-up (and 12-3 ATS) in the Playoffs off back to back SU/ATS losses, if they were not leading a playoff series.  Take the Celtics to win Game 6 straight-up.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Golden State and Boston.  The last 2 games resulted in 204 and 198 points, with each going 'under' the total by 9.5 and 13.0 points, respectively.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Thursday, as it falls into NBA totals systems of mine with records of 163-106, 74-43 and 169-95.  Additionally, Boston has gone 'under' in its last 4 elimination games (and 17 of its last 26 elimination games).  And the Warriors have gone 'under' in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Golden State.  The Celtics and Warriors are tied at 2-games apiece after the Warriors' 107-97 victory in Game 4 on Friday.  We'll take Boston in this Game 5, as the Celtics are an awesome 17-0 ATS away from home in the Playoffs, when priced from -3.5 to +7.5, if they failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, and don't lead in the Playoff series.  Even better:  the Warriors have been horrible (26-62 ATS) off a point spread win, when matched up against a revenge-minded foe.  Grab the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Boston.  The Celtics roared back from a double-digit deficit to stun the Warriors, 120-108, in Game 1.  We'll lay the points with Golden State to rebound in Game 2, as the Warriors are 51-31 ATS when off a SU/ATS loss, and playing with revenge.  And they're 19-9 ATS when playing with double revenge against foes with a W/L percentage < .700.  Meanwhile, Boston is an awful 0-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs following a win, if its opponent's win percentage is .630 (or better).  Lay the points with Steph Curry & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 2 between Golden State and Boston.  The Celtics erupted for 40 points in the 4th quarter to rout the Warriors, 120-108, and take a 1-0 lead in the Finals.  Golden State will need to lock down on defense in this game, if it doesn't want to find itself in a 2-0 hole going back to Boston.  And the Warriors typically do just that.  In its 25 upset playoff defeats, it has held its opponent to a lower score 18 times.  And, not surprisingly, 18 of those 25 games have also gone 'under' the total.  Similarly, in the last 32 years of the Playoffs, teams off upset playoff defeats that gave up 120+ points in that upset loss, have then gone 'under' in the next game 58% of the time.  Take Game 2 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors.  Boston had to go the distance against the Miami Heat, while the Warriors snuffed out the Mavericks in just five games.  And I think the extra rest will benefit Golden State in this Game 1.  Additionally, the Western Conference has dominated the Eastern Conference in Game 1 of the NBA Finals when the Eastern team owned the worse regular season record.  Since 2005, our Eastern Conference teams have gone 0-13 straight-up and 1-12 ATS in these Game 1s of the NBA Finals, and have lost all 13 games by at least 8 points (average loss by 14.15 points).  Boston is an awful 6-13 ATS in its Game 1 road games, while the Warriors have excelled in their Game 1s (19-11 ATS last 30).  Take Golden State.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics -- on the moneyline -- over the Miami Heat.  The Heat will have home court advantage in this decisive 7th game.  But home teams NOT favored by 4+ points have gone 1-9 ATS in Game 7s since June 2005.  That doesn't bode well for Erik Spoelstra's men on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that Boston is 18-2 ATS away from home in the Playoffs if it didn't lead in the series, after failing to cover the spread in its previous game by more than 7 points.  We'll take the Celtics to win this game, as .660 (or worse) road teams are 77.4% ATS since 1990 after losing as a 5.5-point (or greater) favorite.  Take Boston on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on Game 6 between Boston and Miami to go Under the total.  These two teams have gone under the total by 30.5 points, and by 21.5 points in their last two games.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Friday, as teams that have gone under by 30+ points in their previous playoff game have continued to go under 60% of the time since 1990.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Boston Celtics.  These two teams have alternated wins and losses over the series' first four games, and I look for that to continue on Wednesday.  Indeed, NBA teams off a loss by 7+ points, and not favored by 7+ points, have gone 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS in Game 5 of the Conference Finals since 1994, if the series was tied at 2-games apiece.  Even better:  Miami is 23-8 ATS in 'win situation' games with point spreads less than 3 points, if it was off a loss by 20+ points in its previous game.  And Boston is 0-15 straight-up, and 2-13 ATS in Playoff road games vs. .600 (or better) foes, if the Celtics were off a win by more than 11 points.  Take Miami in Game 5.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  We played on Miami in Game 3, but will take the home-standing Celtics in Game 4.  With its 109-103 defeat, Boston has fallen behind in this series 2-games-to-1.  But home teams that trail 2-games-to-1 in a Playoff series have covered 64.7% since 1990, if they lost Game 3, and weren't an underdog of 4+ points in Game 4.  Moreover, the Celtics have gone 26-12-1 ATS in the Playoffs, if they trailed in a series, and failed to cover the previous game's spread by 6+ points.  And Miami has covered just 7 of 24 games as a road underdog in the Playoffs, if it led in a series.  Take Boston minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat Under the total.  The Celtics were upset by Miami, 109-103, on Saturday, and now trail in the series, 2-games-to-1.  Off that upset loss, and with their back against the wall, I expect a much better defensive effort by Boston on Monday night.  Indeed, NBA teams that trailed in a Playoff series, that were off an upset loss in a game which went Over the total, have generally rebounded to play MUCH BETTER defense in their next game.  Since 1990, such teams have held their opponent to a lower point total in 86.9% of the games, and the UNDER has cashed 62.3%.  Take the UNDER in Game 4.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State.  We played on the Warriors in Game 1 of this series (and were rewarded with a 25-point win), but stayed away from Game 2.  The Warriors won that game, albeit a comeback victory rather than a blowout win from start-to-finish.  Here, however, Dallas will have the benefit of playing in front of its home crowd.  And, in the Playoffs since 1996, home teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 65% vs. < .700 foes, if our home team trailed in the series, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  Dallas is a solid 28-5-1 ATS at home off a road loss vs. a foe off a win, if the Mavs were not laying more than 7 points.  Meanwhile, Golden State is a wallet-busting 0-7 ATS on the road as an underdog off less than 6 points, off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Boston Celtics.  Boston leveled this series at 1 game apiece with a 127-102 victory in Game 2.  The Celtics will now return home where they hope to take a series in this Conference finals.  Unfortunately, home teams have struggled in Game 3 of a series tied at 1 game apiece, at the quarterfinals round forward.  Since 1990, our home teams have covered just 35.1% of the time.  That doesn't bode well for Boston here.  Nor does the fact that Miami is 15-7 ATS with Erik Spoelstra as coach off an upset playoff loss.  And it's also a solid 61-29 ATS its last 90, overall, off an upset loss vs. a foe off a SU win.  Take Miami + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Miami and Boston.  This series is knotted at 1 game apiece after the two teams traded victories in Miami.  We'll look for a low-scoring affair in Game 3, as NBA Conference Finals have gone UNDER the total 15 of 16 times since 1990 when a series has been tied at 1-game apiece, and the O/U line was greater than 184 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  Luka Doncic & Co. knocked out the Western Conference favorite on Sunday, with a blowout win over the Phoenix Suns.  Phoenix was far-and-away the best team in the NBA this season, with a 64-18 record (a full eight games ahead of #2 Memphis).  But off that upset win, we will fade the Mavericks in San Francisco tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams that pulled off an upset win, and ousted a .705 (or better) opponent from the Playoffs in their previous game, have only covered the spread 27% the past 32 years.  Take Golden State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Dallas.  The Suns were destroyed by Dallas in Game 6, 113-86, even though the Suns were favored by 2 points.  That's the bad news.  The good news for this Game 7 is that Phoenix is a spectacular 16-0 ATS its last 16 off an upset road loss, if its opponent was off a double-digit cover.  Meanwhile, Dallas is a dreadful 7-19 ATS off an upset playoff win, when matched up against .630 (or better) foes.  Phoenix has won all six home meetings vs. the Mavericks the last two seasons (by an average of 12.6 ppg), and is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS vs. Dallas the past 11 games here, at home.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix/Dallas game UNDER the total.  We played on the under in Game 6, and were rewarded with a 113-86 result, which went under the total by 11.5 points.  The last four games of this series have all gone UNDER the total, and have done so by an average of 15 ppg.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Mavericks are 52-21 UNDER when priced from -1 to +8 points, while Phoenix is 11-0-1 UNDER off a road loss this season (and 15-1-1 UNDER, dating back to last season).  Take Game 7 UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game.  The Celtics and Bucks have gone under in four of the first six games in this series, including Game 6, which went under by 9.5 points.  I look for another low-scoring game on Sunday, as Milwaukee has now gone under in eight of 10 Playoff games this season, while Boston has gone under in six of its last nine.  Even better, Boston's 30-11 under when priced as a favorite of -3 to -7.5 points.  Finally, in elimination games involving Milwaukee, the under has cashed 16 of 22, while it's cashed 23 of 36 in elimination games involving Boston.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Warriors were embarrassed, 134-95, in Game 5, as they once trailed by 58 points.  But off that rare clunker, we'll play on Steph Curry & Co. tonight.  Indeed, .610 (or better) NBA teams that lost a playoff game to their opponent, and failed to score 100 points in that defeat (with their opponent scoring more than 121) have bounced back to cover 83% since 1990.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Celts need to win tonight to force a seventh game, and I believe they will.  They've been installed as a small underdog after their 110-107 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite in Game 5, and we'll take the points, as Boston is 17-2 ATS away from home in the playoffs, if they didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread in their previous game by more than 7 points, including a perfect 12-0 ATS as a #3 seed (or better).  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game.  Three of the first five games of this series have gone under the total (as well as nine of the last 13 meetings between these clubs), and we'll look for another low-scoring game here.  Indeed, the last game went under by 25.5 points!  And the last 3 games have gone under by an average of 16.16 ppg.  Dallas has been installed as a home underdog in this game.  And the Mavericks are now 40-13 UNDER when priced as an underdog of less than 6 points, including 8-1 UNDER its last nine at home.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat game.  Three of the first five games have gone under the total in this series (as well as 7 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs), and I look for yet another relatively-low scoring game tonight.  Indeed, the Heat have now gone under in 8 of their last 10 games, overall, while Philly has gone under in 7 of its last 10. Even better:  the Sixers come into this game off a blowout 35-point loss.  But the 76ers are 32-12 UNDER off a loss by 30+ points, while Miami is 20-4 UNDER when installed as an underdog vs. foes off a 25+ point defeat.  Take Game 6 under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Suns swept the regular season series from Dallas, 4-games-to-none, and then won the first two games of this Playoff series for a 6-game win streak this season.  But the Suns lost Games 3 + 4 to knot this series at 2-games apiece.  Still, Phoenix is a very profitable 17-6 ATS its last 23 vs. Dallas.  Moreover, the Suns were installed as a road favorite in Game 4, yet lost by double-digits, 111-101.  The good news for Chris Paul & Co. is that Phoenix is a powerful 15-0 ATS its last 15 off an upset road loss, if its opponent was off a double-digit cover.  And Dallas is a dreadful 7-18 ATS off an upset playoff win, when matched up against .630 (or better) foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks 'under' the total.  We played on the 'under' 213 in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 103-101 Milwaukee victory in a game which sailed under the total by 9 points.  And that was the 3rd straight under played by these teams to open this 7-game series.  Game 4 is tonight and, as my mother used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  I will adhere to that advice, and once again look for a low-scoring game.  Indeed, not only has all three games of this series gone under (by 9, 21 and 28 points), but all eight of Milwaukee's playoff games have gone under!  The Bucks have now gone 'under' 24-9-2 their last 35 home playoff games, while Boston has gone under 24-11 its last 35 road playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game.  The first two games of this series have sailed under the total.  And neither were close.  Game 1 was won by Milwaukee, 101-89, and went under the total by 28 points.  Likewise, Game 2 -- a 109-86 Celtics win -- went under by 21 points.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game this afternoon, as NBA Playoff games have gone under 62.3% since 1990 if the two previous games in the series combined to go under the total by 44+ points.  Even better:  Milwaukee has gone under in five straight home playoff games, and is 23-9-2 under its last 34 home playoff games.  Meanwhile, Boston has gone under 23-11 its last 34 road playoff games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Phoenix Suns.  Dallas is down 2-games-to-none, so it needs to win tonight, lest it fall into a 3-0 hole (out of which no NBA team has ever climbed).  We'll take Luka Doncic & Co. tonight, as NBA teams, seeded#5 (or better), have gone 63-38-2 ATS if they were down 2-0 in a series, and not installed as an underdog of +2 (or more) points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game.  The Suns erupted for 129 points in their Game 2 win, and also tallied 121 in Game 1.  But off these two high-scoring games, we'll take Game 3 to go UNDER the total.  Indeed, since 1990, NBA teams that scored more than 120 points in a playoff win, and also scored more than 120 points two games back, have gone UNDER 68.6% since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Phoenix.  The Suns were the league's #1 team this season, and the only team which won 69+ percent of its games.  Phoenix got this series off to a great start with a 7-point win on Monday.  Unfortunately, #1-seeded NBA teams with a .733 (or better) win percentage have gone 30-64 ATS as home favorites in the NBA playoffs if they led the series, and their opponent had yet to win a game.  That doesn't bode well for Phoenix tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Mavericks are 39-14 ATS as a double-revenge-minded road underdog off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State.  The Grizz lost Game 1, but covered the 2.5-point spread in the process.  And that extended Memphis' point spread record this season to 56-32-1 ATS this year (63.6%).  Its regular season ATS record (52-29-1 ATS) was not only the #1 ATS record of any NBA team this season, but it also was the 4th best regular season ATS record over the past 32 seasons!  This is key, as NBA teams have gone 53-24 ATS at home in the Playoffs, if their ATS win pct. was 62% (or better).  Moreover, Memphis is 25-3 ATS at home when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win, if the Grizzlies weren't favored by more than 2 points.  Take Memphis as a home dog on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Celtics had covered their previous seven games vs. the Bucks before getting upset in Game 1, 101-89.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Ime Udoka's men tonight.  Indeed, .610 (or better) NBA teams have gone 49-21 ATS at home off an upset playoff loss, if they scored less than 90 points in that defeat, and were favored by 4+ points in the current game.  Take Boston minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last year, the Bucks won the title in part due to the loss of key players to injury by other teams.  This season, it's the Bucks (and 76ers) who have suffered the biggest losses thus far.  Milwaukee will be without its second best player, Khris Middleton, for this series, while the 76ers lost center Joel Embiid.  It would have been an uphill climb for Milwaukee even with Middleton, but his absence will likely doom Milwaukee in this series.  I expect Boston to get off to a good start in Game 1, and we'll lay the points.  Milwaukee has won its last three games, but it's a poor 110-173-1 ATS off three (or more) wins.  Even worse:  it's 5-20 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points, including 0-8 ATS vs. a foe off back to back wins.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Memphis/Minnesota game.  These two teams went down to the wire in Game 5, with Memphis winning by just points, 111-109.  And the game went under the total by 11 points.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Friday, as Memphis has been installed as a narrow 1-point road favorite.  And NBA Playoff games, competitively-priced with a point spread less than 2 points, have gone 'under' 99-79 since 1990.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 6 between Utah and Dallas.  These two teams mustered just 179 points in Game 5, which went 'under' by 33.5 points.  And Game 4 wasn't much better, as they scored just 199 points combined, which was 15 points less than the posted total.  Game 6 is set-up to be another low-scoring game, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 57% since 1990 off back to back low-scoring games that each went 'under' by 15+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Dallas Mavericks.  Utah's Donovan Mitchell will play tonight, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Jazz.  Utah could not have played any worse in Game 5, as it lost by 25 points, and made just 3 of 30 shots from three-point range.  Given that Utah converted 36% of its three-point shots this season, and ranked second in successful three-pointers per game (14.5), I fully expect the Jazz to play much better here, at home, on Thursday.  NBA teams with a .583 (or better) win percentage are a solid 59-41 ATS in the playoffs off a 25-point (or worse) defeat.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns 'Under' the total.  We played on the #1-seeded Suns in Game 5 of this series, as our NBA Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 112-97 win.  That game went 'under' the total of 216.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as #8 seeds (like New Orleans) have gone 'under' the total in Home elimination games 62% of the time since 1990, including 78.9% when the O/U line was between 198 and 219 points, and 82.3% in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 or less.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers over the Toronto Raptors.  The Sixers were blown out, 103-88, by Toronto in Game 5.  But off that home upset defeat, we'll take Philly on the road in Game 6.  Indeed, road teams that scored less than 90 points in a 15-point (or worse) home upset playoff loss, have cashed 64.7% since 1990.  Take the 76ers.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Toronto game.  Game 5 went 'under' the total by 20.5 points, and that was the 4th straight game in this series which has gone 'under.'  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as the Sixers have gone 'under' in 9 of 12 games after failing to cover the spread by 18+ points in their previous game, and 27-18 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in their previous game.  Likewise, Toronto is 24-10 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in its previous game.  Take the 'under.'

At 10 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game.  The Warriors have exploded to score 123, 126, 118 and 121 points in this series.  And, dating back to the regular season, the Warriors' last five games have gone 'Over' the total.  But off this string of high-scoring games, we'll take the 'UNDER' on Wednesday night.  Indeed, NBA teams have gone 'under' the total 65.1% since 1990 if they scored 118+ points in the three previous meetings that season, and the most recent meeting didn't go 'under.'   Even better:  Golden State has gone 'under' 60% at home off 5+ overs.  Take the UNDER in Game 5.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New Orleans.  We played on the Pelicans as a home underdog in Game 4, and were rewarded with a 118-103 blowout win.  But off that loss, we'll take Monty Williams' men to rebound on Tuesday.  Phoenix is an awesome 50-18-1 ATS off an upset road loss, including 16-0 ATS its last 16 vs. foes that covered by 11+ points in their previous game.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Boston Celtics.  Brooklyn was within a half-second of winning Game 1 on the road, but fell, 115-114, when Jayson Tatum took a pass from Marcus Smart, and made a lay-up at the buzzer.  It was one of those momentous plays which -- for all intents and purposes -- swung this series to Boston's favor.  Indeed, Brooklyn never recovered.  It certainly had its chances again in Game 2, but collapsed late in a 7-point loss.  And, then, here at home, the Nets lost by six, 109-103, in Game 3.  I stayed completely away from this Playoff series over its first three games, but the value now resides on the side of Brooklyn.  It was favored by 4 points in Game 3, but because it's down 3-games-to-none, the number has been significantly adjusted.  I certainly understand WHY the number has been adjusted:  teams down 3-games-to-none have gone 39-55-5 ATS since 1990 in Game 4.  But of those prior 99 series, only 2 have been more competitive as this one, as Boston has only outscored Brooklyn by a total of 14 points in the three games.  We'll play on Brooklyn, as it falls into a 90-52 ATS Playoff series of mine which plays on certain home teams off back to back ATS losses.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Phoenix.  The #1-seeded Suns regained control of this series with a 115-112 victory in Game 3.  But we will fade Phoenix off that win, as NBA road teams off a win in Game 3, and up 2-games-to-1, are a dismal 32.7% ATS since 1990 in competitively-priced games with spreads less than 5 points.  Take the Pelicans to even this series at 2 games apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors UNDER the total.  The Warriors come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went OVER the total.  But since 1994, Golden State has gone 'under' 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went 'over.'  As does the fact that the Warriors are 25-13 UNDER their last 38 as a road favorite.  I look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies roared back from a seemingly impossible 26-point deficit to win Game 3, 104-95.  Memphis now has a 2-1 series lead, but the Timberwolves are far from out of it.  We'll take the homestanding T-Wolves tonight, as home teams off a loss in Game 3 have cashed 71% since 1990 if they trailed in the series 2 games to 1, and their opponent's win percentage was less than .703.  Take Minnesota + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies UNDER the total.  The last two games have gone WAY UNDER the total.  Game 2 totaled 220 points, and sailed under by 20.5.  Likewise, Game 3 totaled 199 points, and was 38.5 points away from the posted total of 237.5.  The Game 4 line has been adjusted downward, of course, but not by nearly enough.  We'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday night, as the Grizzlies have now gone 'under' 31-14-2 when the line has been 231+ points, including 8-1 'under' their last nine on the road.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Dallas.  With their proverbial backs against the wall, the Jazz will attempt to level the series at 2 games apiece this afternoon.  Utah is a spectacular 67.3% ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS home loss since 1990 when playing with revenge.  I won't fade those numbers.  Lay the points.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the New Orleans Pelicans.  Entering the playoffs, the Suns had the easiest path toward a championship, which would have been their first in their franchise's history.  But that path got a huge roadblock in Game 2 when star Devin Booker sustained a hamstring injury.  If there is a silver lining for Monty Williams' crew, it's that they've played many games without Booker over the last two years.  This season, they went 8-6 in 14 games sans Booker.  We'll take Phoenix in this Game #3, as it is 105-58-3 as a single-digit favorite (or PK) off an upset loss, including 42-16-3 ATS on the road; 7-0 ATS its last 7 playoff games; and 40-15-2 ATS if it failed to cover its previous game by 16+ points.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans UNDER the total.  The Suns were stunned in Game 2, as New Orleans leveled the series at 1 game apiece with a road win.  Even worse:  Phoenix lost its best player, Devin Booker, for the remainder of the series.  We'll look for a low-scoring game in New Orleans tonight, as the Suns are 20-5 UNDER off a straight-up loss, including 9-0 UNDER their last nine on the road.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Milwaukee/Chicago game.  The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the total, and they continued a series trend, as 12 of the last 16 meetings between these Central division rivals have gone UNDER the total.  And this series trend dovetails with how each team has done in division games, overall.  Chicago has now gone UNDER in 21 of 26 division games (including 11-0 UNDER when priced from 215 to 224), while Milwaukee has gone UNDER in 11 of 17 division games.  And the Bucks are 22-14 UNDER off an upset loss.  Take the UNDER.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Miami Heat.  Miami bested Atlanta by 10 points in Game #2.  We'll take Atlanta here, at home, in Game #3, as it's 96-55 ATS at home when playing with rest, and revenge from a double-digit loss.  Take the Hawks.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State.  The Nuggets come into this game off 3 straight point spread defeats.  But Denver is a spectacular 29-8 ATS off 3 (or more) ATS losses, if it was matched up against a .400 (or better) foe, including 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Grab the points with Mike Malone's men.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game.  The Warriors blew out Denver in the first two games -- both played in San Francisco -- by scores of 123-107 and 126-106.  The Warriors have been installed as a road favorite tonight, and have gone UNDER the total in 25 of 37 games as a road favorite.  Additionally, NBA teams off back to back games in which they scored 123+ points have gone UNDER 67.7% in the Playoffs since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Dallas.  We played on the Mavericks in Game 2, and were rewarded with a 110-104 upset victory.  Unfortunately for Dallas, it's 13-34 ATS vs. .333 (or better) revenge-minded foes, if Dallas won its previous game.  Take Utah to bounce back on Thursday.

At 8:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Minnesota. Memphis was the league's #1 point spread team this season, with a 52-29-1 ATS record (64.1% ATS). But it comes into this Game 2 off back to back SU/ATS losses, as it fell to Boston, 139-110, in its final regular season game, and lost to Minnesota, 130-117, on Saturday. We'll take Memphis to bounce back tonight, as NBA teams with a .620 (or better) ATS win percentage have cashed 68.9% at home in the post-season since 1990. And favorites of -4 (or more) points off back to back losses by 13+ points have cashed 75% in the post-season since 1990. Indeed, we just saw this situation last Wednesday when the New Orleans Pelicans (-5) defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 113-103, after losing their two previous games by 27 and 21 points. Finally, favorites have cashed 88% in the playoffs if they gave up 123+ points in back to back games. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Miami Heat.  These two teams have met twice over the previous 11 days, with the Hawks losing by 4 and 24 points.  We'll play on the double-revenge-minded road underdog tonight, as #1-seeds (like Miami) stumble in Game 2 of a series more often than not after posting a blowout win in Game 1.  Indeed, #1-seeded teams have covered just 28% as a favorite of 6+ points against .520 (or better) foes following a 6-point (or better) win to open a series.  That doesn't bode well for Erik Spoelstra's men tonight.  Nor does the fact the Heat are an awful 26-55, 32% ATS at home off a division home win.  Grab the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Utah Jazz. In last Sunday's final regular season game, Jason Kidd's gameplan was to play Luka Doncic for three quarters against the San Antonio Spurs. But with less than three minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, his All-Star strained his left calf. Sometimes, one's best-laid plans go awry. The Mavericks put up a game fight in Saturday's 99-93 loss, but had poor offensive execution, and missed too many free throws. Certainly, they'll have to be better in those areas tonight. The good news for Dallas is that underdogs off a SU/ATS loss that are down 1 game in a playoff series have covered 57.3% since 1990. And the Mavericks are 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a loss when they've trailed in a playoff series. Take the Mavericks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans are (by far) the worst team in the playoffs.  They were 36-46 in the regular season, but were able to sneak into the playoffs by defeating a Los Angeles Clippers team which was without its All-Star, Paul George, due to COVID-19.  Unfortunately for the Pelicans, Phoenix -- the league's #1 team with 64 wins -- won't be missing any key personnel this afternoon.  Even worse for the Pelicans:  it's playing this game with just 1 day off, while the Suns have been off for 6 days.  And .650 (or worse) teams have covered just 26% of playoff games since 1990 if their opponent had at least 5 more days of rest.  Moreover, NBA teams with a losing record are 51-92-7 ATS their last 150 playoff games.  And teams with a win percentage at least .325 worse than their opponent have gone 0-8 SU/ATS in the opening game of a playoff series.  Lay the points with the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs' chase for the #9 slot officially ended with last night's loss at home to the Golden State Warriors.  With nothing to play for tonight, we'll fade Gregg Popovich's crew in Dallas.  The Mavericks still aspire to get to the #3 position, which would happen with a win vs. San Antone, and a loss by the Warriors in New Orleans.  Since February 4, Dallas is 22-7 SU and 21-8 ATS.  And it's 24-3 SU and 18-9 ATS its last 27 when laying 9+ points.  The Mavericks blew out Portland by 50 points in its last game.  And NBA favorites off late-season wins (final 11 games of the season) by > 36 points have gone 28-0 SU and 20-7-1 ATS, including a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in their final home game of the season.  Lay the points with the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Clips continue to roll as we end the season.  Last night, they blew out Sacramento here, at home, 117-98.  And they're clearly on a mission, as their 4-game win streak started with a 153-119 victory AT MILWAUKEE -- in a game Paul George didn't even play!  Los Angeles is now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with its only ATS defeat coming against the Suns, when Phoenix had to outscore the Clippers, 48-26, in the fourth quarter just to get the cover.  Still, Los Angeles played great for most of that game, as it even went on a 21-0 run to establish a huge lead.  Tonight, the Clippers will close out the season with a game against 24-57 Oklahoma City, which has long since been eliminated from playoff contention.  OKC comes into this game off a 120-101 loss at the Los Angeles Lakers.  And the Lakers had dropped eight straight games prior to that contest.  We'll lay the points, as NBA teams with a win percentage > .300 have gone 71.8% ATS since 2009 in the season's final regular season game vs. foes with a win percentage < .300.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This will not be a star-studded affair.  Denver's MVP Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight, while Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis are all out for the Lakers.  The Nuggets come into this game off a 122-109 blowout win over Memphis, on Thursday.  They currently reside in the 6th seed, and can get as high as #5 with a win tonight, and an improbable loss by Utah vs. Portland.  But it's extremely unlikely, and it may also not even be desirable by Denver, given that it might prefer the 2-3-6-7 pathway rather than the 1-4-5-8 path (so as to avoid playing Phoenix until the conference finals, at the earliest).  But regardless of Denver's incentive, we're going to lay the points tonight against the hapless Lakers.  This season, the Lakers were one of the biggest disappointments in league history.  They were tabbed by many to be one of the top 3 teams in the entire NBA, but wound up missing the playoffs entirely.  So, with this final game being played on the road, and also being Los Angeles' 3rd game in four days, we'll fade them, and lay the points with Denver.  Indeed, NBA road underdogs have gone 18-38 ATS in their final game of the regular season, if they were playing their 3rd game in four days, and their opponent was rested and off an ATS win.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls are 0-4 SU/ATS coming into this final regular season game.  We played against Chicago on Friday, and it was upset at home by Charlotte, 133-117.  That upset defeat doesn't bode well for Chicago tonight, as winning teams, off an upset loss in their final regular season home game, are a horrid 21.4% as road underdogs vs. other winning teams.  Take Minnesota minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Toronto.  The Knicks are a home underdog to end the regular season, after blowing out Washington, 114-92, on Friday.  Since 1990, home dogs have cashed 58% in their final game of the regular season, if they were off a SU win in their previous game.  Take the Knicks + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Detroit.  Philly is 50-31, and still has an outside shot at the #3 seed in the Eastern conference (it would need a win coupled with a Celtics loss).  We'll lay the points, as Philly will be playing this game with revenge from a 102-94 loss at Detroit 10 days ago.  But revenge-minded favorites of more than 12 points have gone 9-0 ATS since 1990 if it was the final game of the regular season for both teams.  Lay the points.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington.  The Hornets are in 10th place, but are still alive to move up to 7th place with a win (they would need the Cavaliers, Nets and Hawks to lose for that to happen).  The upshot, of course, is that Charlotte will play this game to win.  Washington, meanwhile, is 35-46, and out of the playoff picture.  The Wizards were blown out in each of their last two games -- 118-103 by the Hawks, and 114-92 by the Knicks.  We'll go against Washington this afternoon, as NBA teams off back to back 15-point losses have covered just 20% since 1990 in their final regular season game, when matched up against a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Hornets minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Indiana.  We played on Brooklyn against Cleveland on Friday, and will come right back with them this afternoon.  The Nets will secure the #7 slot with a victory, while the Pacers will surely be happy to see this horrible season end.  Indiana has lost its last nine games, and has given up more than 120 points in each of its last eight, including a 133-120 defeat at Philadelphia yesterday.  We'll fade the Pacers as underdogs have covered just 21% since 1990 in their final regular season game after giving up 125+ points in their previous game, and playing an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Phoenix.  After a horrible 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS run, the Jazz snapped out of their funk with an overtime win against Memphis, and a 36-point blowout victory over Oklahoma City.  Tonight, they'll set their sights on the league's best team.  And Utah will no doubt want to play well -- if only to just boost their confidence -- given they might match-up with these Suns in the quarter-finals.  Utah is 46-24 ATS at home when playing with rest off an 18-point (or greater) win.  And the Jazz also fall into a 61% ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine which plays on certain .375 (or better) teams in their final home game, if they were off a SU win.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over the Chicago Bulls.  Chicago is -- for all intents and purposes -- locked into the #6 seed in the Eastern conference, as the Raptors will nail down the #5 seed tonight when it plays the 20-60 Houston Rockets (a game which starts 30 minutes prior to this contest).  But Charlotte can rise as high as the #7 seed, so it will be highly motivated to play this game from start to finish.  The Hornets blew out Orlando, 128-101, last night, and fall into 116-69 and 91-51 ATS late-season systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins.  In contrast, Chicago comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS home losing streak.  But teams on 3-game SU/ATS losing streaks are a soft 36% as a favorite in the final four games of a regular season, including a horrid 4-21-1 ATS if they were playing their 3rd game in four nights (which Chicago is).  Take Charlotte + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  Brooklyn (finally) showed some intestinal fortitude when it roared back from a 67-50 halftime deficit to beat New York, 110-98, on Wednesday.  On the heels of that 60-31 2nd half, we'll lay the points with Brooklyn in this crucial match-up against Cleveland tonight.  This game will determine the #7 seed (assuming Brooklyn can beat the hapless Indiana Pacers on Sunday), so both teams will be fully motivated.  But Cleveland is currently in a 2-8 ATS tailspin, including an upset loss at Orlando in their last game.  And that doesn't bode well tonight, as nba teams have cashed just 37% since 1990 in their final road game, if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was rested, and off back to back wins.  Take the Nets.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles.  The 2021-22 Lakers have been the most disappointing team in recent memory.  Pegged by many to be a Top 3 NBA team, the Lakers flamed out, and failed to make the Playoffs entirely.  It's true Los Angeles sustained injuries this season.  But so did Golden State, yet the Warriors powered through, and currently reside in the #3 spot out West.  Golden State's on a 3-game ATS win streak, and has won its last 2 games, straight-up.  However, Dallas is right behind Golden State, and sits just a half-game behind, so I expect the Warriors to be ultra-focused tonight.  The Warriors did lose their previous game to the Lakers.  But they're 93-60 ATS when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS their last 11 at home .  And they're 38-24 ATS off 3 ATS wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Memphis.  The Nuggets are still incentivized to win, as Minnesota is chasing down their necks for the #6 spot, while Denver can still catch Utah for the #5 spot.  This is Memphis' final road game of the season.  The Grizzlies are locked into the #2 seed in the Western conference, so they don't have the same incentive as Denver (but, of course, that's not to say the Grizzlies won't continue to play hard).  Regardless, since 1990, playoff-bound NBA teams that were off a SU loss in their previous game, have covered just 37% in their final road game of the season, if they were installed as an underdog.  Lay the points with Denver.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  Each of these teams enters tonight's game with 30 losses, so the winner will have a leg-up on a higher seed in the Playoffs.  This is Milwaukee's final home game of the season, NBA teams are 128-96-4 ATS when playing their final home game, and priced from -3.5 to -7 points (Milwaukee is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in this situation).  Take Milwaukee.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns played last night, and defeated the Lakers in Phoenix.  But off that win, we'll fade the Suns against a revenge-minded Clippers group looking to reach the .500 mark.  Los Angeles has won its last two games -- both in impressive fashion.  They blew out Milwaukee on the road, 153-119.  And then came home to whip New Orleans 119-100.  The Clippers already defeated the Suns here at Crypto.com Arena this season, and are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 home regular season meetings vs. Phoenix.  Finally, the Suns fall into a negative 36.5% ATS late-season system of mine which goes against certain unrested teams off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Suns have rolled to the best record in the league.  They're 62-16 with four games to go.  But Phoenix was upset by the Oklahoma City Thunder in its last game, and that was its second straight loss, overall.  And it also was its 3rd straight ATS defeat.  But Phoenix is 5-0 ATS this season off 3 ATS losses.  And it's 63-38 ATS off 3 point spread losses when it owned a winning record.  The Suns have won six straight vs. the Lakers, and the last five have been by 29, 18, 10, 13 and 30 points.  Take the Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Denver.  The Spurs are closing in on an improbable berth in the Play-in round.  Prior to the season, most pegged the Spurs to win between 24 and 28 games this season.  But, with four to play, San Antonio is 33-45, and is on the doorstep of clinching the #10 seed (with an outside shot of finishing #9).  The Spurs are 14-5 ATS as road underdogs of +6 (or more) points this season (and 27-10 ATS their last 37 in this role).  Take San Antonio + the points.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  Certainly, these two teams have had contrasting seasons.  Utah had hopes to repeat its strong 2020-21 season, where it owned the #1 record in the entire league (52-20).  But the Jazz have struggled, and are in 6th in the West, with a 46-32 record.  In contrast, the Grizzlies were 8th in the West last season, with a 38-34 record, but have taken a massive leap forward this year.  The Grizzlies own the NBA's #2 record (55-23), and also are the league's best team against the point spread (65.3% ATS).  Memphis, perhaps, had its best game of the season this past Friday when it upset the league's best team -- Phoenix -- 122-114, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Grizzlies on the road tonight, as they fall into a negative 146-234 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off wins over > .800 foes.  The fact remains that Memphis is locked into the #2 spot out West, and has less incentive to win tonight than does Utah.  The Jazz are in a tight battle with Denver for the #5 slot, and can also move as high as #4, and fall as low as #7.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season on Sunday, when they shocked Phoenix, 117-96, as a 14-point home underdog.  But tonight the Thunder aren't an underdog -- they're favored against Portland (which has lost 7 straight).  And favored teams have covered just 33% since 1990 off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater underdog), if they were matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Trail Blazers + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Chicago.   The Bucks come into tonight's game off back to back upset home losses -- to the Clippers and Mavericks.  But Milwaukee is a fantastic 42-10 SU and 38-14 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of -3.5 to -11 points, if it was off back to back defeats, including a perfect 9-0 ATS in division games.  Lay the points with the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over New Orleans.  The Clippers welcomed All-Star Paul George back on Tuesday, and they defeated Utah, 121-115.  We played on Los Angeles in that home game, and we'll back the Clippers again tonight, at home.  Los Angeles comes into this game off the highest-scoring victory in the NBA against a winning opponent the past two seasons.  Los Angeles walloped Milwaukee, 153-119, and home teams have covered 71 percent since 1990 after scoring more than 148 points in a win.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over San Antonio.  We played on San Antonio two nights ago, and were rewarded with a 130-111 blowout win over these Trail Blazers.  But we'll take the double-digits with Portland in the rematch, as double-digit road underdogs have covered 68.2% in the regular season over the last 31 years, if the two teams were playing the 2nd of back-to-back games, and our underdog lost SU/ATS in the prior meeting.  Take the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  These two teams are tied at 40-37 with five games remaining.  So, this game will go a long way toward determining each team's playoff seed.  Atlanta has won and covered its last four games, while Brooklyn has lost its last three in a row to the point spread.  And that's key, as home teams have cashed 65% since 1990 in the final five regular season games, if they were on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  Even better:  Atlanta plays this game with revenge from 2 losses to Brooklyn earlier in the season.  And winning teams, off back to back wins, have cashed 65% since 1990 as home underdogs when playing with double-revenge.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the New Orleans Pelicans.  It's "do-or-die" for Anthony Davis & Co.  The Lakers will likely have to go 4-2 or 5-1 over their final 6 games in order to leapfrog San Antonio for the #10 seed in the Western conference.  But it will be a tall task, as the Lakers have road games vs. the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets among their final six games.  So, this game is a virtual "must-win."  We'll take Los Angeles, as it falls into a 133-95 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, LeBron James' teams are 19-11 ATS their last 30 off 4+ losses.  And they've cashed 61% in his career as a home favorite off back to back losses, when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  The Spurs come into tonight's game off a heart-breaking loss to Memphis.  But the Spurs are still 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, and currently reside in 10th place in the Western conference, which would earn them a spot in the Play-in tournament.  San Antonio also owns the tie-breaker over 11th-seeded Los Angeles, and has the easier remaining schedule, to boot.  This will be the first of back-to-back home games vs. the injury-riddled Trail Blazers, so it should be two games in the win column for the Spurs.  When the Spurs and Blazers met nine days ago in Portland, it was a blowout from the start, as the Spurs sprinted out to a 45-27 lead after 1 quarter en route to a 37-point win.  Unfortunately for Portland, two of its starters in that game (Trendon Watford, Justise Winslow) are now injured and won't suit up tonight.  The Spurs are 50-0 SU and 35-14-1 ATS when favored by more than 13 points off a straight-up loss.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The last time Dallas had home court advantage in the opening Playoff round (i.e., seeded 4th or better) was in 2011, when it won the NBA Championship.  So, the Mavericks are on a mission to earn a high seed, and currently are 2 games ahead of Denver and Utah for the all-important home court advantage in round 1.  Since New Year's Eve, Dallas is 32-11 SU and 28-15 ATS.  And it's 10-1 ATS its last 11 (and 24-9-2 ATS its last 35) on the road when playing with revenge.  With the Mavs, indeed, playing with revenge from a 6-point loss to Washington earlier in the season, we'll lay the points tonight.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Los Angeles.  We played against the Jazz on Tuesday night, and were rewarded with an upset win by the LA Clippers.  That was Utah's fifth straight defeat.  But all four were on the road.  Tonight's game is back in Salt Lake City, where the Jazz have gone 142-97-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses when not favored by 13.5 points.  Additionally, the Jazz were defeated twice by Los Angeles earlier this season, and fall into several of my better NBA revenge systems, with records of 87-48, 58-32 and 155-98 ATS.  Finally, NBA teams with a win percentage > .529 have cashed 63% at home off 5+ losses, when not getting more than 2 points.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Golden State.  The Suns come into tonight's match-up on an 8-game win streak, and refuse to take the pedal off the metal.  Phoenix has won its last eight games by 29, 16, 17, 27, 3, 9, 10 and 10 points for a 7-1 ATS record.  We'll lay the points with the Suns tonight, as they're 18-0 straight-up, and 17-1 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the year!  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Memphis.  San Antonio has passed the Lakers for the 10th overall seed in the Western conference (the two teams are tied at 31-44, but the Spurs own the tie-breaker).  So, this game is hugely critical for the Spurs' aspiration to reach the Play-in round.  In contrast, this game has relatively little meaning for Memphis, as it is virtually locked into the #2 position, as it is 5 games ahead of Golden State, with just six to play.  The Spurs lost at Memphis by 13 points four weeks ago.  But the Spurs are 36-21-1 ATS at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Take San Antonio.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston.  With just 12 days left in the season, there's a 4-team logjam at the top of the Eastern conference.  Miami sits in first, a half-game ahead of Milwaukee, 1 game ahead of Boston, and 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.  So, tonight's game will go a long way toward determining the eventual Playoff seeds.  We'll grab the points with Miami, as it is 16-6 ATS as an underdog this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes with a .610 (or better) win percentage.  Take the Heat.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Utah Jazz.  Paul George has been upgraded to 'probable' to play tonight, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the homestanding Clippers.  George (24.7 ppg; 7.1 rpg; 5.5 apg) has been absent since December 22, and the Clippers have faltered badly.  With George in the lineup this season, the Clippers actually have had a winning record; without him, they haven't.  He missed both games earlier this season at Utah, and the Jazz blew out Los Angeles in those two games.  But this game is at home, where the Clippers are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings, with the average victory by 14 points.  Utah is an awful 2-18 SU and 3-16-1 ATS on the road when the Jazz weren't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston.  After the Spurs upset New Orleans on Saturday, and the Los Angeles Lakers were defeated by the same Pelicans team yesterday, the Spurs are in prime position to pass the Lakers for the #10 seed, and a spot in the Play-in round.  San Antonio currently sits just one game behind Los Angeles with eight to play.  But the Spurs have the far easier schedule, and also own the tie-breaker.  Of San Antonio's final eight games, three are against teams outside the Playoff picture (including this game vs. Houston tonight), while the Lakers have just one game against a non-contending team.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs, who are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games.  Meanwhile, Houston is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five vs. foes in the Playoff chase, and 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS its last 19 vs. such foes.  Finally, the Spurs are 17-6-1 ATS on the division road, including 9-1 ATS off a win in their previous game, while Houston is 6-14 ATS at home vs. division rivals.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento.  The Heat are in a major swoon right now, as they've lost four straight games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven straight.  This downturn has brought Miami back to the rest of the Eastern conference pack, and there is currently a four-way tie in the Loss column, as each of Boston (47-28), Miami (47-28), Milwaukee (46-28) and Philadelphia (46-28) have 28 losses.  The good news for the Heat tonight is that they're relatively healthy, with just G Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg) questionable to play, due to a knee injury.  In contrast, Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox (23.2 ppg) and Domantas Sabonis (18.9 ppg).  Miami is 56-28 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win, including 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 when playing an opponent with a .420 (or worse) win percentage.  Take Miami minus the points.