Sports Picks & Predictions

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Certainly, this will be a tough game for the Nuggets to win.  After all, Portland has won its last 18 home openers.  But I'm still going to take Denver in an underdog role, as it no doubt would love to avenge its playoffs ouster by the Blazers last May.  That Western Conference semi-finals series went 7 games, and the Nuggets lost Games 6 + 7 to fall to Portland.  However, Denver falls into a super 81.08% revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Nuggets are a solid 28-16 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 14-6 ATS on the road, and they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 as an underdog vs. a division rival.  Meanwhile, Portland's a poor 4-9 ATS at home vs. foes playing with double-revenge.  Finally, underdogs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their season opener, if they were playing a division foe, and were a .500 (or better) team the previous season.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Golden State.  This has been an underdog-oriented series this season.  The underdog has covered four of the five Playoff games, and six of the seven meetings this season, if one includes the regular season.  The Raptors are one game away from winning their first NBA Title, and if history is any indication, they'll get the job done tonight.  Indeed, NBA road teams up 3-games-to-2 in a Playoff series have done very well over the last 29 years, as they've cashed 59%, including 78% in the NBA Finals.  That bodes very well for Toronto this evening.  As does the fact that NBA teams (like Toronto) with a better margin of victory have covered 72.2% of NBA Finals games off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by 5+ points.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Golden State game 'under' the total.  These two teams went under the total in Game 5.  But the only reason it was close to the number was due to the opening quarter.  The two teams combined for 62 points in the 1Q, and 73 points in the first 14 minutes, 14 seconds.  But, of course, Kevin Durant was on the floor for much of that time period.  Thus, following the Durant injury, the two teams combined for 138 points over the final 33 minutes, 46 seconds, which extrapolates to 196.16 if that rate of scoring would apply for the full 48 minutes.  And that lines up almost perfectly with Game 4, which had a final score of 105-92.  The 'under' also falls into 139-92 and 85-45 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over Toronto.  After dropping the the last two games, the defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against a team in such a predicament.  But teams down 3-games-to-1 in a 7-game series have actually been very good against the point spread over the years, including 61-39 ATS if they were not getting 9+ points.  That bodes well for the Warriors tonight.  As does the fact that Golden State has been super as a road underdog off a straight-up loss, when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Since December 20, 2011, it is 31-7 ATS, including perfect 6-0 when playing with double-revenge from two losses earlier in the season.  Finally, teams (like Toronto) off back-to-back upset wins on the road have covered just 34.7% since 1990 vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .650, including 9-30 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in each of those two upset wins.  With their backs against the wall, we'll grab the points with the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Toronto.  We played on the Raptors in Game 3, and got the $$$ with a 123-109 upset win.  However, I look for the Warriors to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, Golden State is a virtually-perfect 12-1 ATS when trailing in a Playoff series, if the Warriors owned a .600 (or better) win percentage (including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS at home).  And they're a terrific 37-18 ATS as a home favorite off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  With Klay Thompson back on the court tonight, the Warriors will get a player who is huge for both their offensive and their defensive game plans.  And that's all I need to pull the trigger on Steve Kerr's troops.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Golden State.  The Raptors have won three of the four meetings vs. Golden State this season, with an average margin of victory at +6.50, and an average point spread differential of +5.12.  We'll grab the points with the Raptors, as they're 13-4 ATS as an underdog vs. .625 (or better) opposition.  Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just 2 of their last 10 Playoff games off an upset win over their current opponent, including 0-6 ATS vs. .685 (or better) foes!  Finally, home favorites have covered just 23% in the NBA Finals off an upset win over their opponent.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Toronto.  For a myriad of reasons, this was always going to be Golden State's most difficult NBA Finals in the Steve Kerr Era.  For starters, it's the first time his troops have not had home court advantage in a Finals series.  And, of course, it's also the first time his team has had to deal with significant injuries -- not to mention having to face an opponent (unlike Cleveland) which can play lights-out defense.  With its back against the wall in this Game 2, I expect the Warriors to compete with the mettle of a 3-time Champion.  For technical support, consider that .618 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 63.3% since 1991 as road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss in Game 1, including 69% in the NBA Finals.  And the Warriors are an awesome 28-5 ATS as a road underdog of +2 (or more) points off a loss, if their foe is off a win, including 14-1 ATS if their foe is off back-to-back wins!  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Toronto.  The Warriors have dominated in Game 1 of a Playoff series.  Dating back to 1994, they're 20-5 straight-up, and 16-8-1 ATS, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS on the road, and 19-1 straight-up and 12-8 ATS since 2014.  It's true that Toronto won the two regular season meetings.  But the Warriors are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +7.5 points.  Golden State is also 5-0-1 ATS on the road in the Playoffs when playing with double-revenge.  Finally, NBA home favorites (or PK) off a SU/ATS win are an awful 65-90 ATS vs. .693 (or better) foes.  Take the Warriors in Game 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Toronto.  We played on Milwaukee in Game 5.  Unfortunately, Toronto upset the Bucks, 104-99, to take a 3-2 series lead.  That was the first time this entire season that Milwaukee lost for the third straight time.  Still, the Bucks are 47-25 ATS as an underdog off back to back losses.  And they're 32-17 ATS off 3+ losses.  Many bettors will find it difficult to back a team off 3 straight Playoff defeats.  But since 1994, NBA underdogs off an upset loss, and 3 straight Playoff losses overall, have actually cashed 59%.  We'll grab the points with Mike Budenholzer's crew in this 'must-win' game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Game 6 between Toronto and Milwaukee.  The two teams combined for just 204 points in Game 5, which was the lowest aggregate total yet for the two teams in this Playoff series.  And Game 5 was a full 18 points less than Game 4.  As such, Game 5 went 'under' the total by 11.5 points!  I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday night, as #1-seeded teams, off an upset home loss, and now facing elimination on the road, have gone 'under' the total 78% since 1990.  Even better:  NBA Finals and Conference Finals games have gone 'under' the total 61.7% of the time if the two teams combined to go 'under' the total in their previous game by at least 8 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks and Raptors have traded two victories on their respective home courts, which bodes well for the Bucks on Thursday since they'll be back home.  And, dating back to Giannis Antetokounmpo's rookie season, the Bucks are an exceptionally strong 40-13-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 100% Perfect, 9-0 ATS, off an upset loss.  This season, Milwaukee not only owned the league's best record (60-22), but it also owned the league's best point spread record (47-31-4 ATS).  In the Playoffs, Milwaukee has continued to win -- both straight-up (10-3) and ATS (10-3).  Thus, it is now 57-34-4, 62.6% ATS on the season.  In contrast, Toronto has burned money this season, with an ATS win percentage of just 47.4%.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are up 3-games-to-none in this seven-game series, so they definitely have Portland on the ropes.  But we'll fade Golden State tonight, as #1-seeded teams are a dreadful 0-9 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they're going for a sweep in a Playoff series, and priced from PK to -7.5 points.  Even better:  since 1990, the Trail Blazers are an awesome 90-52-2 ATS as home underdogs of less than 5 points, including 8-3 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Milwaukee.  After covering the spread for all but the final 29 seconds in Game 1, the Raptors only covered the 6.5-point spread for 4 minutes and 11 seconds in Game 2, and were absolutely annihilated, 125-103.  The good news for the Raptors is that this series now shifts to Toronto for Games 3 + 4.  And they're 10-3 ATS their last 13 games off 3+ point spread defeats.  Moreover, since 1991, NBA teams, seeded #5 or better, are 67-42 ATS off a road playoff loss by more than 21 points.  But that's not the best part.  If our team's win percentage is .640 (or better), and it lost its last two games, then our 67-42 stat zooms to 11-1, 92% ATS, since 2002.  The Bucks last 3 games (all wins), were all at home.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee, it's covered just eight out of its last 33 games off 3 home wins.  Take Toronto minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee.  The Raptors fell by eight points in Game 1, as a 6.5-point underdog.  And the worst part of the game for Toronto backers was that they covered the point spread for all but the final 29 seconds of the game.  Tonight, we'll grab the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co., as I look for Toronto to even up the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, .663 (or better) teams off exactly one loss, and down exactly one game in a Playoff series, have cashed 66.3% when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Raptors are 5-0 ATS on the road this season after a loss by more than six points, and #1-seeded teams (like Milwaukee) are a poor 40% ATS in a Playoff series as a home favorite when up 1-game-to-none.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Blazers were routed by 22 points in Game 1, 116-94, but I love them to bounce back in Oakland tonight.  Indeed, road teams off a loss by more than 21 points have cashed 92% in the semi-finals and finals of the NBA Playoffs since 1991, when priced from +2.5 to +7.5 points.  Even better:  the Trail Blazers are an awesome 11-1 ATS the past two years when playing with revenge from a double-digit road loss.  Finally, the Warriors are a wallet-busting 10-26-1 ATS in games with single-digit point spreads, if the Warriors were off 3+ wins.  Grab the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia, as Toronto falls into 49-23, 47-7, 50-10, 30-2, 107-64, 65-18, 158-87, 44-12, 37-6 and 100-43 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 49-23 ATS system.  Here, what we want to do is play against #3-seeded teams (like Philadelphia) off an upset win, if that #3 seed was not favored by more than 5 points in the current game.  Of course, there's nothing wrong with 49-23 ATS.  But we can improve our angle to a virtually-perfect 93%, 14-1 ATS if we limit our games to those that involved #3 seeds with a win percentage of .628 (or less).  The Raptors will also have the benefit of playing this Game 7 in front of their home faithful.  And that's been a significant advantage for home teams in Game 7 since the dawn of the NBA Playoffs, as they're 105-28 straight-up since 1947.  The numbers also are just as impressive in more recent times.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, home teams are 56-17 straight-up, and 41-30-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland.  The first four games of this series were relatively close, and were decided by an average of 5.5 points per game.  But the last two games were both blowouts.  Denver won here, at home, in Game 5 by 26 points, while Portland won Game 6 at home by 11 points.  I expect another blowout win by the home team in this Game 7.  Indeed, .667 (or worse) road underdogs of +4 (or more) points, off a double-digit win, have cashed just 21.8% in tied NBA quarterfinals series.  That doesn't bode well for Portland this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Denver's been extremely strong at home this season (39-9 straight-up, 29-19 ATS), including 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS when not favored by more than six points.  Or that Portland's road point spread record in the post-season is the 2nd-worst in the NBA (Atlanta's 24-51 ATS record is the worst).  Since 1991, the the Trail Blazers are a wallet-busting 18-67 SU and 29-52-4 ATS, including 10-28-3 ATS off a win.  Yikes!  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Golden State Game.  These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 5, and it easily went 'under' the 221 Total.  I look for another very low-scoring game tonight, as this series has gone 'under' the total much more often than not.  Indeed, in the last 50 meetings, the 'under' has cashed 66% (33-17 'under'), including 16-6 'under' in the Playoffs.  Additionally, the Rockets have now gone 'under' in 23 of their last 32 Playoff games when they were not leading in the series, including 6-0 'under' when they were favored by more than 5 points.  And since Steve Kerr became head coach, the Warriors have gone 'under' the total in 18 of 23 games where they were priced as an underdog of +2.5 to +8 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Trail Blazers are down 3-games-to-2, and have failed to cover the point spread in each of the last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Blazers tonight, especially because they lost by 26 points in Game 5.  However, home favorites have covered 70.5% over the last 29 seasons in Game 6 or 7 of a Playoff series, if they were off three straight ATS defeats.  That bodes very well for Portland tonight.  As does the fact that the Nuggets are an awful 16% ATS since 1991 in the Playoffs off back to back wins, if they are up in their Playoff series by exactly one game.  Finally, #3-seeded teams, off a SU/ATS Playoff defeat, and down by exactly one game in the series, are a solid 55-35-4 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS at home.  Take Portland to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks won their 3rd straight game -- 113-101 -- to take a 3-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  But off that win, we will fade Mike Budenholzer's team tonight.  Indeed, the Bucks are a horrid 19-50-2 ATS at home off 3+ wins when playing a rested opponent.  Even worse, since 1991, NBA underdogs of more than six points have cashed 73% off back-to-back home playoff defeats by 6+ points.  This game will go down to the wire.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston.  The Warriors lost in overtime, 126-121, in Game 3.  But they still are in a commanding 2-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  And that bodes well for the Warriors tonight, as they're 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS when up 2-games-to-1 in a series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off a loss.  Moreover, since Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been on the Warriors, they've been spectacular as a road underdog off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Dating back to the 2011-12 season, they've gone 30-6 ATS!  The Warriors are also 38-18 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 13-5 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Celtics won Game 1, 112-90, but lost the next two games by a combined 28 points.  They're in a "must-win" situation in this Game 4, and we'll back them at home, tonight.  Indeed, home teams down 2-games-to-1, off back to back losses in Games 2 +3, have cashed 69% in Game 4 against top 2-seeded teams.  Even better:  Boston's been a beast at home in the Playoffs when not getting 4+ points.  Dating back to April 26, 2017, it's gone 16-2 SU/ATS.  And, finally, the clincher is that the Celtics are 11-0 straight-up, and 10-1 ATS in the Playoffs off back to back SU/ATS losses, if it doesn't lead in the series.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  The #2-seeded Raptors were blown out in Game 2 by the 76ers, and are now down 2-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series.  Even worse for Nick Nurse's crew:  they'll likely play this afternoon's game without their second-leading scorer (16.9 ppg), Pascal Siakam, who suffered a thigh contusion in Game 3.  The point spread for this game has been adjusted by the oddsmakers, of course, to reflect this injury.  Toronto opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but is now an underdog following the change of Siakam's playing status.  We'll grab the points with Toronto, as underdogs off an upset loss in the Playoffs have cashed 58% since 1991.  Additionally, the Raptors are 19-12 ATS their last 31 as an underdog.  And they're 22-5 SU and 18-9 ATS their last 27 vs. Philly.  Take the Raptors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Portland.  We passed on the first two game of this quarterfinals series, but will grab the points with Denver tonight.  The Nuggets lost a rare home game on Wednesday, 97-90, as a 4-point favorite.  However, Denver is 17-5 ATS off a home loss when the current game had a point spread of 4 points or less.  And road underdogs, off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs, have cashed 57% since 1991.  Finally, the Trail Blazers have covered just 24 of 69 if they were off a Playoff win, including 16 of 52 if they weren't favored by more than 5 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over Philadelphia.  The Raptors are having a great season, as they went 58-24 in the regular season (and are now 5-2 in the playoffs), and are outscoring their opponents by 6.50 points per game.  Toronto was upset at home in Game 2, so it's critical to get at least one win at Philadelphia in order to take this series back to Toronto no worse than tied at 2 games apiece.  We'll play on the Raptors in Game 3, as NBA teams, off exactly one SU/ATS playoff defeat, have covered 64% the last 29 years (and 11-2, 84% ATS the past 3+ years), if that defeat was at home, and they have a margin of victory greater than 6.35 points per game.  That bodes very well for Toronto.  As does the fact that the 76ers are an awful 4-22 straight-up, and 8-18 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two Atlantic Division rivals.  Finally, #3-seeded teams are a wallet-busting 25% ATS since 1991 when tied at 1 game apiece in the NBA Playoffs, and off an upset road win in Game 2.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Philadelphia game.  The Raptors have gone 'under' the total in six of seven Playoff games this season.  And they haven't been close.  Indeed, in the Orlando series, the first four games went 'under' by 7, 19.5, 20, and 14 points, while the 5th game did go 'over' the total, but by just 5 points.  And this series is following down a similar path, as Games 1 + 2 have gone 'under' the total by 20 and 36.5 points.  In the Magic series, the oddsmakers were slow to adjust, as the first three games had totals of 212, 212.5 and 211.  Here, in this series, the oddsmakers have adjusted a bit more, as the first three games have had lines of 223, 219.5 and (currently) 216.5 for tonight's game.  But, based on my numbers, the line should be significantly lower, still.  Philly has gone 'under' in 27 of its last 40 home Playoff games, while Toronto has gone 'under' in 14 of its last 20 road Playoff games.  Finally, the total falls into 91-55, 89-54, 99-67, 22-12, 137-91 and 33-13 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks own the best record in the NBA this season, but didn't play like it in Game 1 of this series.  The Celtics blew out Milwaukee, 112-90, to take a 1-0 lead in this quarterfinals match-up.  The entire Bucks' starting line-up shot the ball poorly, as not one player hit 50% of his shots, and the five starters combined to go 15-50, 30%.  As a team, the Bucks were 31-89, 34%.  In contrast, the Celtics' starters combined to shoot 34-64, 53%, while their full team was 47-87, 54%.  Not surprisingly, the Bucks lost by 22, which was their worst defeat this entire season.  However, there is reason for optimism.  First, Milwaukee has generally bounced back strong off poor offensive efforts this season.  Indeed, in the regular season, the Bucks had five SU/ATS losses, in which they shot less than 40%.  But following each of those SU/ATS losses, the Bucks were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, and covered the point spread by an average of 9.3 ppg.  That bodes well for Milwaukee on Tuesday night.  As does the fact that #4-seeded teams have cashed just 33% (18-36-2 ATS) since 1993 off an upset road win in the Playoffs.  Moreover, .687 (or better) teams -- like Milwaukee -- are 100% perfect, 10-0 ATS, in the Playoffs since 2006 as favorites of -5+ points, if they were off exactly one loss, and lost that previous game at home by 7+ points.  The Bucks also fall into 23-0, 62-21, 46-11, 100-50, 145-87, 94-42 and 25-1 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks earned the number 1 overall seed this NBA season -- their first with Mike Budenholzer roaming the sidelines.  And they've also been great against the point spread, as they're 51-31-4 ATS on the year.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as home teams that have covered 62+ percent of their games have cashed 71% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams have cashed 69% since 1991 in the Quarterfinals when matched up against opponents off a road win, provided they weren't favored by 12+ points.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  We played on the Spurs Thursday night, and got the $$$ with a 120-103 victory.  But that game was at the AT&T Center, where the Spurs have been dominant.  On the road, it's been a completely different story.  And the one statistic which best illustrates this (and one I've mentioned a couple of times already in this series) is that San Antonio is 1-31 straight-up, and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points. This stat dates back to the game the Spurs effectively lost their star player, Kawhi Leonard -- Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals -- when he was injured by Zaza Pachulia.  At the time of the injury, the Spurs had a real shot to win the NBA Title.  Since then, they've been a bottom-rung playoff team.  Gregg Popovich, who perhaps (if he chooses to retire) will be coaching his final game tonight, has done a masterful job to get this crew to a Game 7 vs. Denver, but it all should come to an end tonight, especially given how well home teams do, generally, in Game 7s.  Historically, home teams are 104-28 straight-up.  And, dating back to 1991, home teams are 55-17 straight-up, and 41-29-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers easily handled the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, with a 4-1 series win.  But they now have to greatly step-up in class, and have been installed as a big underdog vs. Toronto.   Unfortunately for Philly, over the last 29 years, NBA underdogs of 5+ points have covered just 25% in Game 1 of the quarter-finals, if they were on a 3-game (or better) win streak (including 0-4 ATS the last 3 years).  Even worse:  the 76ers are 3-20 straight-up, and 7-16 ATS vs. Toronto in the last 23 meetings, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors surrendered 129 points to the Clippers in Game 5, and that won't sit well with coach Steve Kerr.  Indeed, it was the 4th-worst defensive effort by his team in 88 Playoff since he's become head coach.  But after giving up 115+ points in a playoff game under Kerr, the Warriors have generally rebounded with a much better defensive effort, as they've gone 'under' the total 64% of the time.  And that dovetails with the Warriors' results, generally, off a loss since Kerr became coach, as they're 63-44 'under' the total after losing their previous game.  Moreover, dating back to 1993, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 79% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset home loss in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Warriors were upset at home for the 2nd time in this series when they lost 129-121 in Game 5, as a 14-point favorite.  But, as we saw in Game 3 following Game 2's upset loss, the Warriors are often at their best following a very bad game.  Golden State won that Game 3 by a 132-105 score, and easily covered the number.  I expect a similar result on this Friday night, as Golden State is an awesome 34-1 straight-up and 27-8 ATS as a favorite of -6 or more points off a loss if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  San Antonio was blown out in Game 5.  But that shouldn't have surprised anyone, as San Antonio is now 1-31 straight-up and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points.  Now, the Spurs return home.  And San Antonio is 23-3 straight-up and 22-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  The Spurs have also won 14 of 15 home games vs. the Nuggets.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets to go 'under' the total.  San Antonio is in a 'must-win' situation tonight, as it is down 3-games-to-2.  And one of the things I love to do is play on the 'under' in "elimination" games, if the team in the 'must-win' position is favored, and off a double-digit loss.  Since 1991, such teams have gone 'under' the total 59.3% of the time.  The 'under' also falls into 73-51 and 84-43 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah.  The Rockets were up 3 games to none, but took their foot off the gas in Game 4, and were upset by the Jazz, 107-91.  Part of the problem for the Rockets on Monday was that center Clint Capela was still struggling with a viral infection, which has severely limited his production in this series.  But with 48 hours of rest, coach Mike D'Antoni is optimistic that Capela will be back to his normal, dominant self tonight.  Houston has dominated Utah in this price range, as Houston is 14-2 straight-up and 12-4 ATS when priced from -3 to -9 vs. the Jazz.  Even better for the Rockets:  5-point (or greater) NBA favorites, off upset road losses in the Playoffs, have covered 68% since May 2003, if they failed to cover the spread by 15+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the home club.  NBA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Orlando game.  We played on the 'under' in Game 2, and it easily sailed under the closing 211 number, as Toronto won, 98-93.  The number is a bit lower today, but the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the rightful number.  Indeed, the three games in this Playoff series have gone 'under' all three times, by 7.5, 19.5 and 20 points.  And if we go back to the regular season, six of the seven meetings this season have gone 'under' (as have 14 of the last 19 meetings).  The Magic are 39-19 'under' off a straight-up loss, including 14-0 'under' their last 14 when priced from +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  The Jazz lost by a combined 52 points in Games 1 + 2 of this series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Utah, especially since it's been installed as a favorite in Game 3.  But NBA favorites have actually cashed 62.8% in the NBA Playoffs after losing each of the first two games of a series by double-digits.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Detroit finds itself in an 0-2 hole as this series shifts to the Motor City.  I love the Pistons tonight, as underdogs of +6 or more points, in the Opening Round of the NBA Playoffs, have covered 67% of Game 3s over the last 29 seasons when they lost the first two games of the series.  Take the Pistons.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia.  The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly.  We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points.  Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland.  The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3.  We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991.  Take Oklahoma City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston.  The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads.  Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series.  The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total.  The first two games of this series went 'under' the total.  And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014).  The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991.  Take the 'under.'

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors blew a 31-point lead in Game 2, and they fell to the Clippers, 135-131.  That was the 2nd-most points the Warriors have given up all season, and the reason was their defense in the 2nd half.  Golden State actually led 73-50 at halftime.  But it shockingly gave up 85 points in the 2nd half.  Coach Steve Kerr will no doubt emphasize defense for this road game at Staples Center.  And it should comfortably sail under the total, which is a very high number.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 83% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  We played on the Nuggets in Game 2, and got the $$$ when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in the 2nd half for a nine-point comeback victory.  One of the reasons  played against San Antonio was its god-awful record on the road when installed as an underdog of more than 4 points (now 1-30 straight-up since May 2017).  However, at home, the Spurs have dominated, with a 43-10 SU record (34-19 ATS).  And Gregg Popovich's men have been especially strong when playing with revenge.  Dating back to March 2018, the Spurs are 22-3 straight-up and 21-4 ATS in this role!  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston.  The 4th-seeded Rockets blew out Utah 122-90 in Game 1 behind 29 points from James Harden.  Unfortunately for Houston, NBA #4 seeds are a money-burning 0-19 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes in the first round of the Playoffs, as favorites of more than 3 points, if they were off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse for Houston:  Utah's 17-8 ATS as a road underdog off a double-digit Playoff loss, while Houston has covered just 9 of 32 games as a home favorite after a double-digit home win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Virtually everything went right for Mike Budenholzer's men in Game 1.  They sprinted out to a 38-18 lead after the first quarter, en route to a 35-point victory.  Milwaukee, of course, was aided by the fact that the Pistons' Blake Griffin was sidelined with a knee injury.  Griffin has been ruled out for the remainder of this series, as well, and his absence has been accounted for in the game 2 point spread.  We'll take the underdog in tonight's game, as teams off Playoff blowout wins by 35+ points have been atrocious (22% ATS the past 29 years) in their next game.  Take the Pistons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs did something very much out of character in Game 1:  they pulled a big upset on the road, as a 5.5-point underdog.  Indeed, the Spurs road win percentage this season is .404.  And over the last two seasons, going into this series, they were 0-27 straight up, and 7-19-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than four points!  Unfortunately for the Spurs, they're likely to revert to form tonight.  And that's because, since April 28, 1991, NBA road teams, with a road win percentage less than .405, have covered just 33% in the Playoffs following an upset road win.  Take Denver to slaughter San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Orlando.  The Raptors lost at home in Game 1, 104-101, to the Magic.  And they were favored by 9.5 points in that game.  The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that favorites of more than 9 points, off a game where they lost outright, and also failed to cover the spread by more than 9 points, are 30-0 straight-up, and 22-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Toronto to blow out Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors routed L.A. in Game 1, 121-104.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade the defending Champs on this Monday.  Indeed, double-digit home favorites off SU/ATS home playoff wins by 10+ points have covered just 36% since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for Golden State tonight.  And neither does the fact that the Clippers are 45-37-1 ATS this season, compared to just 36-46-1 ATS for Golden State.  The Clippers are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 road games when playing with revenge.  And #1 seeds (like the Warriors) are an awful 48-73-6 ATS as a favorite after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Sixers were stunned, 111-102, in Game 1 of this series, here at home.  But I love Philly to bounce back today, as home favorites of -7+ points, off a straight-up loss in the Playoffs (and ATS loss) by 7+ points each, have cashed 62.3% in conference games since 1991!  Moreover, the Sixers are 43-29 ATS their last 72 at home, including 18-8 ATS off an ATS defeat by more than four points.  Take Philadelphia to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder swept the season series, 4-0, from Portland this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Portland because of that fact.  However, road teams (like Oklahoma City) have gone 0-8 SU/ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of a Playoff series if they weren't getting 10+ points, and they swept the regular season series!  That doesn't bode well for the Thunder.  Even worse:  Oklahoma City is a horrid 1-13 straight-up and 2-12 ATS on the road in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 0-8 SU/ATS in the first two rounds.  Finally, Portland falls into a super 120-62 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs have certainly been a great Playoff team over the years.  But they've really struggled as underdogs of +5 (or more) points when matched up against a top 2-seeded opponent.  Since 2001, they've gone just 3-21 straight-up and 7-17 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if the Spurs were not off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for San Antonio on Saturday night.  And neither does the fact that San Antonio is an awful 0-4 straight-up the past two seasons at Denver, with its average margin of defeat being 10.5 points.  The Nuggets have not held home court advantage in a Playoff series very often.  Indeed, over the last 28 years, they've only been in that position in four series.  But in those four series, they won that first (home) game all four times, and by an average of 14.5 points per game.  When these two teams last met (just 10 days ago), the Spurs were destroyed by Denver, 113-85.  And teams playing with revenge from a loss in the regular season by 15+ points have covered just 42 of 106 Playoff games.  The biggest problem for San Antonio in this series will be the Nuggets' All-Star center, Nikola Jokic.  In the last three games played between these two teams, Jokic has gone 10-14, 10-14 and 9-10 from the field, and also pulled down 10 rebounds per game.  Jokic will prove to be too much for the Spurs to handle.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz won their final home game of the season yesterday when the defeated Denver.  Meanwhile, the Clippers had the last 2 nights off following their 27-point loss at Golden State, so they'll be very well rested for this game.  Los Angeles needs to win, and also have either San Antonio or Oklahoma City lose, in order to avoid the 8th seed.  Unfortunately, both the Spurs and Thunder are favored to win their games tonight (both early starts), so the Clippers could very well have their fate sealed by the time this late night game begins.  Regardless, I expect a strong effort, as they'll enter tonight's play on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will no doubt want to get back into the win column prior to the start of the Playoffs.  Los Angeles is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven (and 13-3 ATS its last 16) games off a road defeat.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami.  The Heat had an emotional game last night, at home, when they defeated Philly, 122-99, in Dwyane Wade's final home game.  Tonight, they have to take on the Playoff-bound Nets, who come into this season finale off back to back upset wins over Milwaukee and Indiana.  Since 1990, home teams have cashed 71% in their final game of the season, if they were off back to back upset wins.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors come into this final game of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up.  So, this game will hold little meaning to Steve Kerr's crew.  Not surprisingly, since 1990, #1-seeded Playoff teams have covered just 35.7% of their final games of the regular season, if they were on the road.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas.  This game is critical for the Spurs.  If they win, they'll avoid the Warriors in the 1st round of the Playoffs.  San Antonio also will play this game with a big advantage in terms of their days of rest.  The Spurs have had the last two days off, while Dallas had to play last night.  San Antonio is 96-58 ATS its last 154 vs. unrested foes.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over Orlando.  The Hornets will likely miss the Playoffs, as they need to defeat Orlando and also need the NY Knicks to upset Detroit in order to qualify for the post-season.  But anything's possible, so Charlotte will certainly put forth its best effort tonight.  The Hornets didn't put forth their best effort when these two teams last met on Valentine's Day.  The Magic won that game, 127-89.  But Charlotte had won the previous 13 games in this series (11-2 ATS) and I look for them to avenge that 38-point loss tonight.  Indeed, underdogs off a SU/ATS win (like Orlando), which defeated their opponent by 30+ points in the previous meeting, are a soft 28-53-1 ATS since 1990.  Take Charlotte.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Indiana.  The Pacers have dropped nine of their last 12 games, and are locked into the #5 slot in the Eastern Conference.  With nothing to play for, we'll fade them on the road tonight at Atlanta, as the Hawks are still playing hard (even though they also have nothing to play for).  Atlanta's covered 17 of its last 23 games, including 9-3 ATS off a straight-up loss.  In contrast, the Pacers are 8-13 ATS their last 21.  Finally, Indiana falls into a negative 86-127-4 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain road teams late in the season, as well as a negative 163-215-8 ATS system which fades certain teams that won the season's first three meetings.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Phoenix.  We played against the Suns on Sunday, as we had our NBA Game of the Month on Houston.  And the Rockets blew out Phoenix by 36 points.  We will go against Phoenix again, tonight, as Dallas will be playing its final home game of the season (and possibly the final home game of Dirk Nowitzki's storied career).  The Mavericks are still playing hard (they won a road game at Memphis, on Sunday), and fall into an 86-42 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine (which Houston, coincidentally, also fell into when they played Phoenix on Sunday).  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over New York.  The Knicks upset the Wizards, 113-110, in their previous game.  But New York is still just 16-64 on the season, and has only won back-to-back games three times.  I love playing against really bad teams off wins.  And I won't make an exception here, as this also is New York's final road game of the season.  And they're playing a revenge-minded Bulls team they defeated just eight days ago.  New York is a poor 2-10 ATS this season in "win situation" games, where the line is 3 points or less.  And Chicago's 9-4 ATS its last 13 "Last Home Games."  Take the Bulls minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston.  This is the final game of the season for both teams.  And the Celtics look to be mailing this game in.  Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford all will be in street clothes.  Washington plays with revenge from an 11-point defeat to the Celtics, in Boston, last month.  And Washington is 17-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Additionally, Boston falls into a negative 32-68 ATS "Late season" system of mine which fades certain teams on the road at the end of the year.  Take Washington.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Orlando.  Boston played its best game in a month in its last time out, with a 20-point win at Indiana.  The Celtics have now won 3 in a row, and need to win at least one more game to wrap up home court advantage in the first round.  Tonight, they'll take on an Orlando Magic team which narrowly defeated the Celtics by two points in the last meeting.   Boston is 9-0 ATS when playing with revenge, if the Celtics covered their previous game by 7+ points.  And Boston's also 19-5-1 ATS at home off 3+ wins, including 10-0 ATS its last 10 if it covered its two previous games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Phoenix.  The Rockets are still in the hunt for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they're currently just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets.  And Houston's been taking no prisoners lately, as they're on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak.  They've won those five games by 27, 11, 25, 32 and 24 points.  Tonight, they'll take on a short-handed Phoenix club which will be without its best player, Devin Booker.  And, regardless of who has been on the court, the Suns haven't been able to defeat Houston in any of the last 10 meetings.  For the season, the Suns are giving up 116.4 ppg.  And Houston's dominated opponents that have a defensive ppg average of 116+, as it's cashed 69.5%.  Finally, this is Houston's last home game of the season, and the Rockets fall into a 52-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams in their final game in front of their home faithful.  Meanwhile, the Suns fall into a negative 22-59 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams late in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Minnesota.  The Thunder are currently in the 7th slot in the Western Conference, but need to win their two final games, or they could easily fall to the 8th seed (and have to play Golden State).  This is a revenge game for OKC, which was upset by Minnesota when the two teams met last month.  That bodes well for OKC, as the Thunder are 54-35 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  the T-Wolves come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Dallas and Miami.  But those two victories have triggered a negative 104-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upsets.  Take the Thunder.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland.  The Spurs are battling OKC and the LA Clippers for the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds out West, as none of those teams wants to finish 8th and draw the Warriors in the 1st Round.  We played on San Antonio in its last game, and were rewarded with a 129-112 blowout of the Wizards.  We'll come right back with San Antone this afternoon, as the Spurs are 73-42 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes not off an ATS defeat.  With Cleveland in off a point spread win at Golden State on Friday, we'll lay the points with the Spurs.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Memphis.  This is the first of two back-to-back games played by these teams (they'll meet in Memphis on Sunday).  Dallas comes into tonight's game off an upset home loss to Minnesota.  And they also play with revenge from two losses to the Grizzlies earlier this season.  We'll lay the points with Dallas, as home favorites have cashed 64.7% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge against a division rival, if our home team is also off an upset home loss.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Washington.  San Antone is locked into a tight battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 7th spot out West.  If the Spurs are to catch the Thunder (they're currently one game behind), then a win tonight is critical.  San Antonio does come into tonight's game off five straight point spread losses.  But the Spurs are 38-20 ATS as road favorites of -10 or less points off 3+ ATS defeats.  Take San Antonio.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks are one of four Eastern Conference teams battling for the last three Playoff spots.  Currently, Orlando, Miami and Brooklyn all have 40 losses, while Detroit has 39.  Thus, tonight's home game vs. Atlanta is huge for Orlando.  The Magic have been dominant at home, as they currently have won eight straight in front of the home faithful (6-2 ATS), including a 7-point win over Golden State, and a double-digit win over these Hawks.  Orlando's 20-12-1 ATS its last 33 at home, and should be fired-up tonight as it will be its final home game of the season.  The Hawks have been awful on the road when playing an opponent in its final home game (4-22 straight-up; 6-17-3 ATS).  Take Orlando.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  This is one of the few games left on the NBA schedule where both teams will be well-motivated to win.  San Antonio is in a tight battle with Oklahoma City for the 7th seed, while Denver desperately wants to hang on to the #2 seed.  The home court has been the decisive factor in this series, as the home team has now won nine straight times, including San Antonio's 104-103 victory in the Alamo City on March 4.  The Spurs have also mightily struggled when playing revenge-minded Western Conference teams, and especially if their opponent owned a W/L percentage greater than .440.  Over the last two years, San Antonio is 5-18 straight-up and 6-17 ATS, including 0-9 SU/ATS in the regular season when getting more than 4 points.  Take Denver to blow out the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks beat the league's #1 team on Sunday, while the Spurs were stunned, 113-106, at home by Sacramento.  I love the Spurs to bounce back this evening, as NBA teams off 7-point (or worse) defeats have gone 115-77, 60% ATS, vs. foes off upset wins over .667 (or better) teams.  San Antonio has also cashed 75% since April 18, 1993 off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite.  Lay the points with the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Lakers come into tonight's game off back to back wins (and covers) over Charlotte (129-115) and New Orleans (130-102), while the Thunder suffered their biggest upset loss of the season, on Sunday, when they fell to Dallas, as a 12.5-point favorite (106-103).  OKC will once again be favored by double-digits tonight, and I expect a much different result than the last time these two teams met (the Lakers upset OKC, 138-128, on Jan. 17).  First of all, the Lakers are an awful 33-62-4 ATS in the regular season off back to back wins and covers, if their opponent was off a loss.  And, second, the Thunder are 32-15 ATS in the Regular season when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if the Thunder owned a winning record.  Lay the points with OKC.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks' injury list is extensive for tonight's game:  Nikola Mirotic (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Out), Pau Gasol (Out), Donte DiVincenzo (Out), Khris Middleton (Questionable), Tony Snell (Questionable).  They played yesterday in Atlanta (also minus Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo), and went into overtime in a 136-135 loss.  That sets up Milwaukee in a bad situation tonight, as unrested teams are 25-44 ATS after playing in a high-scoring game (262+ points) the day before.  Certainly, this is a big game for both of these teams, as each is fighting for playoff positions.  But Brooklyn's urgency is a bit greater as it sits just a half-game behind Detroit for 6th, and is in front of Miami by the same amount for the 7th spot.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, still has 3 games of breathing room between it and Toronto for the #1 spot (with just five games to play).  Brooklyn lost at home to these Bucks, 113-94, in their last meeting.  But Brooklyn is 14-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS its last 11, when playing with revenge and not getting more than 6 points.  Take the Nets.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  The Spurs earned a playoff berth last night when Sacramento lost to Houston.  And that moved the Spurs into the NBA record books as they've now made the Playoffs for 22 seasons in a row (tied with the 76ers franchise, 1950-71)!  Tonight, the Spurs will take on Sacramento.  And San Antonio will look to avenge its loss at Sacramento last month.  This is a huge game for the Spurs as they want to win each of their last six games to avoid finishing in 8th place, and drawing the Warriors in the Opening Round.  San Antonio is 48-26 ATS off a win, if it was playing with revenge against an opponent off a loss, and the Spurs weren't favored by 13+ points.  Take San Antonio to blow out the Kings.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Indiana.  These two teams met 13 days ago in Indianapolis, and the Pacers came away with a 2-point victory, as a 1-point home favorite.  That game kick-started a 1-5 SU/ATS stretch for the Thunder, which reached its lowest point this past Monday when they lost to the woeful Grizzlies, 115-103.  OKC is now in 7th place in the Western Conference.  But I love OKC to bounce back on this Wednesday.  Indiana hasn't been able to beat quality teams on the road this season.  Since December 19, the Pacers are 0-10 straight up and 2-8 ATS on the road vs. foes with a win percentage of .481 (or better).  And OKC is 43-21-2 ATS in the regular season when playing with same-season revenge vs. Eastern Conference foes that won their previous game.  Take the Thunder.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Chicago.  The Jazz went into Atlanta on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak, but left with their tail between their legs after the Hawks upset them, 117-114, as a 7.5 point underdog.  I look for Quin Snyder's men to bounce back on this Saturday, as they're 19-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Meanwhile, Chicago's an awful 2-10 ATS at home off a win.  Lay the points with Utah.  NBA GAME OF THE WEEK!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Phoenix.  The Pistons come into tonight's game vs. the Suns off a road loss, at Cleveland.  But I love Detroit to rebound off that defeat, and blow out the Suns tonight.  Detroit already pounded Phoenix earlier this season, 118-107.  And that was Detroit's fourth straight double-digit win vs. the Suns (by an average of 22.25 ppg).  Even more impressive is the fact that the Pistons are a super 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings vs. the Suns.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Chicago.  The Wizards are mathematically still alive for a Playoff spot, but just barely.  They come into tonight's game off a 21-point loss to Utah, and trail 8th-seeded Miami by 4.5 games with just 11 to play.  That makes tonight's game against the 20-52 Bulls ultra-important.  I fully expect the Wizards to rebound off that blowout loss, as they had covered seven of eight going into that game.  And there's no shame in losing to the Jazz right now, as Utah's won its last four games by 17, 20, 16 and 21 points.  Meanwhile, Chicago is coming off an upset win at Phoenix.  We had a play on Chicago that night, but will go against the Bulls today.  One of my stocks-in-trade is to go against certain bad teams off wins.  The Bulls certainly fit the bill tonight, as they fall into several of my best negative systems, with records of 63-121, 202-317 and 138-233 ATS.  Throw in the fact that Chicago is a miserable 5-14 ATS at home this season vs. other losing teams, and we'll pull the trigger on the Wizards.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Phoenix.  The Suns won their last game -- at New Orleans -- but are just 17-54 on the season.  And I love playing against certain bad teams off wins.  Phoenix, tonight, certainly fits the bill, as they fall into a negative 36-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain .333 (or worse) teams off a win.  The Suns are a poor 1-8 ATS at home their last nine after back to back road games.  And they're 9-21 ATS at home off a point spread win.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Golden State.  Gregg Popovich's crew is currently the hottest team in the NBA, with eight straight wins.  And they're now within shouting distance of a top 4 seed (and home court advantage) in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.  As things currently stand, San Antone is in 6th place in the West, but just a half-game ahead of the eighth-seeded Clippers, so each game has significant importance to the team.  Tonight, the Spurs will welcome the West's best team, the 47-21 Warriors, to the Alamo City.  When these two teams last met, Golden State ran the Spurs out of the gym, with a 141-102 cakewalk.  I look for the Spurs to avenge that defeat, as they're a perfect 17-0 ATS at home vs. foes with a .600 to .750 win percentage, if the Spurs were playing with revenge from a loss by more than 21 points.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Minnesota.  James Harden will likely suit up tonight, per his coach, Mike D'Antoni.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Houston in this important game.  The Rockets have lost the last two meetings to the T-Wolves but are 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with double revenge.  And they also fall into a great 67-35 ATS Revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over Portland.  Both of these teams played last night, and each put another game into the win column.  The Spurs were at home, and notched their seventh straight win with a blowout of New York.  Meanwhile, Portland went into the Big Easy, and defeated New Orleans, 122-110.  The Spurs have an advantage tonight due to Portland's travel situation.  And San Antone is also a super 94-56-2 ATS vs. unrested foes, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  Take the Spurs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns were a 17-point road underdog on Sunday night, in Oakland.  And they had lost 18 straight games to Golden State going into that game.  But they pulled the biggest upset in the NBA in over 3 years (and equaled the biggest ROAD upset in almost 21 years) when they won outright, 115-111.  Faithful followers, though, know that I love going against bad teams off wins.  And Phoenix -- with a 16-52 record -- certainly fits the bill.  Tonight, the Suns have been installed as a single-digit home underdog vs. Utah.  And that doesn't bode well for them, as they've lost by double-digits to the Jazz in each of the last four meetings, including identical 116-88 scores in each of the last two meetings!  It's true that Utah has stumbled to the eighth seed in the current race for a Western Conference playoff berth.  The good news for Utah, though, with respect to tonight's game is that it's 20-10 off an ATS loss this season, while Phoenix is 9-20 ATS at home off an ATS win.  And the Jazz are also 83-53 ATS in the regular season as a favorite off an upset loss at home.  And they've cashed 75% over the past 21 years as a rested road favorite of -7+ points off a loss.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over New York.  The Kings have been a pleasant surprise this season.  But they're still on the outside-looking-in when it comes to the Playoffs.  So, they'll need to catch fire down the stretch if they are to catch either the Clippers or the Spurs for the final Western Conference berth.  The good news for Sacramento this afternoon is that it's favored.  And the Kings have gone 13-0 straight-up and 12-1 ATS their last 13 as a favorite vs. non-division opponents.  Additionally, the Kings fall into a 152-65 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off straight-up losses.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Denver.  The Warriors were embarrassed by the Celtics, here at home, on Tuesday.  Boston blew out the Champs, 128-95, as a 6.5-point underdog.  I love Steve Kerr's crew to bounce back tonight, as the Warriors are 38-3 straight-up, and 30-11 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points, if they were off a loss, and their foe was off a win.  Take Golden State.  NBA TV Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over New Orleans.  The Jazz were stunned by these Pelicans two nights ago, when New Orleans overcame a 19-point deficit to down Utah, 115-112.  That was also New Orleans' second straight upset win, as it also defeated Denver, 120-112, as a 13.5-point dog on Saturday.  Unfortunately for New Orleans, teams off back to back upset wins as 8-point (or greater) underdogs, have cashed just 31.3% vs. non-division foes since 1990.  And the Pelicans are also 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five home games vs. the Jazz.  Take Utah to avenge Monday's loss.  Lay the points.  NBA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns upset the Lakers, 118-109, as a 7-point home underdog in their previous game.  But off that upset win, we will fade Phoenix tonight, as double-digit home dogs have covered just 24.5% since 1990 off wins as a home dog (or PK).  Also, Malcolm Brogdon and Eric Bledsoe should be back in action tonight, after sitting out Milwaukee's loss to the Utah Jazz.  That's enough for us to pull the trigger on Monday on a big play on the Bucks.  Lay the points.  NBA GAme of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Atlanta.  We played on the Hawks yesterday in Chicago, and easily got the cash when the Hawks won outright, as a 4-point underdog.  But off that upset win on the road, we'll fade the Hawks tonight in Miami.  Atlanta's covered just 36.6% since 1990 on the road, if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting.  And the Hawks did upset the Heat in the last meeting, as they won, 106-82, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  Lay the points with the Heat.  Southeast Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over New Orleans.  Last night the Pelicans blew out Phoenix, 130-116.  However, we will play against New Orleans tonight, as unrested NBA teams off a win, have covered just 31.5% vs. .545 (or better) teams off a loss.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers won, 125-118, at New York, on Thursday.  But off that upset win, we will fade Cleveland vs. Detroit this afternoon.  One of the things I love to do in the NBA is go against certain bad teams off wins.  And this game definitely fits the bill, as Cleveland has won just 24% of its games this season.  And, since 1990, NBA teams that have won less than 25 percent of their games have cashed just 137 of 327 games as a home underdog when they won their previous game.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Utah.  The Nuggets will have an advantage tonight, given that Utah played last night, while Denver was rested.  And that fact is key for one of my systems, which is 222-102 ATS, which plays on certain rested teams vs. unrested foes.  Even better:  the road team hasn't won any of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, and hasn't covered the point spread in any of the games, either (0-9-1 ATS).  That bodes well for the Nuggets tonight.  Finally, Utah has covered just 16 of 49 as a road underdog, priced from +3 to +8.5 points, while Denver is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at home when rested, and playing an unrested foe.  Take the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Denver.  The Thunder dropped the last meeting between these two teams -- also here in Denver -- as the Thunder lost 109-98, as a 2-point road favorite.  At this point in the season, this is a "must win" for the Thunder, as they sit three games behind the Nuggets in the race for the Northwest division lead.  Oklahoma City comes into this game off an upset loss, at home, to Sacramento, and has dropped three straight to the point spread.  The good news, though for OKC is that it's a powerful 69-36 ATS on the road off an upset home defeat.  And OKC is also 45-25 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if OKC owned a .625 (or better) win percentage.  The Thunder also fall into 55-14 and 77-36 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take OKC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Indiana.  The Pistons are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They've won six of seven (5-2 ATS) to move into 7th place in the Eastern Conference.  Tonight, they'll take on division-leading Indiana, which blew out the Pistons by 37 back in late December.  Since 1990, .438 (or better) NBA favorites, playing with revenge from a 30+ point loss, are  an awesome 45-18-1 ATS vs. winning teams off a SU/ATS win.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the NY Knicks.  The Spurs lost a heartbreaker in Toronto on Friday, which dropped them to 1-5 on their annual Rodeo Road Trip this season.  They have two games remaining:  tonight in New York City, and Monday in Brooklyn.  I look for the Spurs to bounce back off Friday's defeat, as they're 96-59-4 ATS in the regular season on the road if they lost at least two of their three previous games.  And they're also 15-5 ATS vs. the Knicks when priced from -6 to -11, including 5-1 ATS off a loss.  Lay the points with San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Charlotte.  The Magic have won and covered four straight, including a 20-point blowout of the league's #1 team, Milwaukee.  I won't step in front of them here, at home, tonight, as they play with revenge from a 25-point loss to Charlotte on New Year's Eve.  And that defeat has triggered a very good 84-46 ATS revenge system of mine.  Even worse for the Hornets:  they've covered just 34 of their last 100 games when installed as an underdog.  Take Orlando minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are just 12-45 this season, but did win their most recent game, 107-104, vs. New York.  Off that win, we'll fade Cleveland, as NBA home dogs off a straight-up win, that have won less than 22 percent of their games, have cashed just 36% since 1990 vs. .500 (or better) non-division foes.  Additionally, the Cavaliers are 12-24 ATS at home off a win, while Brooklyn is 44-25 ATS its last 69 road games.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston.  This is the first time the Sixers have played the Celtics here at home since their 5-game Playoff series loss last year.  And there's probably not a game on the Sixers' schedule in these final two months which means more to this team.  Philly comes into this game off back to back home wins over Denver and the LA Lakers.  And Philly is a jaw-dropping 39-4 straight-up and 32-11 ATS its last 43 regular season home games when it was favored by 4+ points, including 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Sixers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies won, 99-90, here on Saturday vs. the Pelicans, and will try to make it two-in-a-row tonight when they take on their historical nemesis.  The Grizzlies haven't had much success vs. San Antonio, as they've won just 10 of the previous meetings, though they were victorious in the last meeting, back on January 9.  Unfortunately for Memphis, this is a horrible situational spot, as they will face a desperate San Antonio squad.  The Spurs' annual Rodeo Road Trip is not off to a good start, as they've lost the first four games of this eight-game trek, including a 20-point loss at Utah on Saturday.  But I love the Spurs to bounce back tonight, and blow out Memphis, as San Antone is 20-12 ATS in its Rodeo Road Trip games, if it's rested and off a loss, including a perfect 6-0 ATS if it was also playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Spurs are also 18-0 ATS off back to back losses, if they (i) lost by more than 11 points on the road in their previous game, (ii) were not getting 3+ points, and (iii) were playing an opponent off an ATS win.  Take San Antonio minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Dallas, as Houston falls into 133-81, 95-59 and 67-25 ATS systems of mine.  Yesterday, the Mavericks came back from a 15-point, 4th-quarter deficit to upset the Portland Trail Blazers, 102-101.  Off that upset win, we'll go against the Mavericks on the road tonight, as they're 11-29 straight-up, and 14-25-1 ATS on the road off an upset win, including 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight.  Meanwhile, Houston comes into this game off a home loss to OKC.  And Houston is a super 33-7 straight-up, and 28-12 ATS off a home defeat if the Rockets owned a winning record.  Finally, the Rockets play this game with revenge from two losses earlier this season to Dallas.  And Houston is 13-0 ATS when playing with double-revenge against foes with a win percentage from .400 to .800.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over the LA Clippers.  Los Angeles stormed back from a 28-point deficit to shock Boston, 123-112, as an 11.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we will fade the Clippers tonight.  Los Angeles is an awful 1-15 straight-up and 2-14 ATS as a non-division underdog off a win, including 0-7 ATS off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are a strong 10-3 straight-up and 11-2 ATS their last 11 vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the T-Wolves were off an upset win.  Finally, the Clippers are a horrid 47-73-3 ATS as an underdog off a SU/ATS win, if they were playing a revenge-minded opponent.  With Minny playing with revenge from an 11-point loss to the Clippers earlier this season, we'll lay the points. Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Cleveland.  The Wizards play with revenge from a loss to these Cavaliers, and they're 9-0 ATS this season at home when playing with revenge.  And they're also 17-0 ATS their last 17 at home when playing with revenge if they owned a win percentage less than .485.  That bodes well for Washington tonight.  As does the fact that the Cavs are 8-16-1 ATS as underdogs of more than 9 points.  Finally, since 1996, favorites playing with double-revenge from two losses earlier in the season, including an upset defeat in the previous meeting, have cashed 62% ATS in the regular season against teams off a point spread win.  Take Washington.  NBA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.