Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. While they've failed to cover recently, the Blazers have still won five of their last six. This should be a good spot to break through with a win AND cover. The Bulls have played well at home. However, they're only 2-3 on the road and have yet to win at a venue as difficult as this one. Chicago's two road wins came at Brooklyn and Miami, against a pair of sub-500 teams. When they stepped up in class to play stronger teams on the road (Atlanta, Indiana, Boston) the Bulls lost all three times. Each loss came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of 11. While I respect the Bulls, I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the Blazers covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers figure to be in a foul mood here. After getting upset by the 76ers in OT, they lost to Boston last time out. They've had a day off to recover and stew in their anger though and I expect them to come out swinging tonight. They catch the Magic off a hard fought upset win at OKC yesterday and playing their third game in the past four days. While they've had trouble on the road, prior to the Boston loss, the Pacers had yet to taste defeat at home. They're still 4-1 here, averaging greater than 115 ppg on this floor. Averaging only 93.6 ppg their past five outings, the Magic figure to have trouble keeping up. The Pacers are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in this series. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. Both teams played yesterday. The Lakers beat the Pelicans while the T-Wolves lost against the Clippers. The fact that the T-Wolves didn't have to travel in between games should work in their favor, in this b2b spot. Also, with the T-Wolves having lost last night, they should be a little hungrier than their guests. A closer look at the scheduling for both teams shows that the Wolves had two day's off, prior to last night's loss. On the other hand, the Lakers had only one day off, prior to last night's win. That means that LA will be playing its third game in four nights here while that will not be the case for the T-Wolves. The Wolves played arguably their best game of the season, the only previous time that they played the second of b2b games, a 123-107 destruction of Orlando. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight, as they bounce back with another win and cover.

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* GOM. I successfully played against the Lakers in their last game. Favored against the Mavs, the young Lakers got blown out, losing by 12 points. Their 'winning streak' snapped, I look for the Lakers to struggle again tonight. The Kings come in healthy and off back-to-back wins. They got Collison back from an 8-game suspension last time out and he gave them 28 minutes. While he didn't start that game and may not again tonight, he makes their backcourt significantly stronger. Of course, Cousins is the straw that stirs the drink, as he does it all for this team. The Kings beat the Lakers all four games last season and Cousins led the way. In those four games, the Kings' star averaged 27.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks, all while shooting better than 50% (50.8%) from the field and hitting 83.3% from the line.

Last game was the first time that the Kings were really favored all season, as they've had a fairly difficult opening schedule. Their first game was on the road. Then, they hosted the Spurs for their home opener. They won a pick'em game against the T-Wolves in their next game here and that was followed by a 5-game road trip. They struggled on the trip but closed it out with a win at Toronto, which is no small feat. Finally, they got an 'easier' game, as they returned home to host the Pelicans. They took care of business in that one, winning by eight. That means that they're 2-1 at home with the lone loss coming against San Antonio. Needless to say, while they do have some quality young players, the Lakers, who are 1-3 on the road, aren't in the class of the Spurs and they still don't have an answer for the Kings' big man. Look for Cousins and co. to take advantage of the winnable game, improving to 9-6-1 (11-5 SU) the last 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. While the T-Wolves certainly have some talented players, they're in a bit of a funk at the moment. Last night, they lost at Brooklyn. That dropped them to 0-3 SU/ATS their last three and 1-5 SU/ATS on the season. They have yet to win on the road. Given that poor start and the fact that they're in a back-to-back spot, one might expect the T-Wolves to be a bigger underdog. The Magic don't get much respect though and thats kept this line relatively low. Note that Orlando is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it was favored at home by three or fewer points. The Magic have won back-to-back games on this floor. They're 2-1 SU/ATS here on the season In last season's game against the T-Wolves here, they erased a double-digit halftime defiicit to win by three. Later, they'd go on to also win by three at Minnesota. While they failed to cover in the first of those, as they were favored by five, the Magic are a healthy 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams from the Northwest, 37-23-1 ATS their last 61 against teams from the West overall. I like the addition of Ibaka to this Magic team, combining with the likes of Vucevic and Gordon. All three are averaging double-digits in points thus far, while Fournier leads the team with 17.4 ppg. With the schedule and venue in their favor and catching their guests in a slump, I look for the Magic to win their sixth straight in this series, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The Lakers have been a profitable team at the betting window thus far and they enter tonight's game on a nice roll. I successfully played on them in their only 'non-cover' (blowout loss at OKC on 10/30) though and I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them once again. Note that LA remains a poor 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the last 10 times that it was off a double-digit win. During that stretch, the Lakers were also 0-3 SU/ATS after winning their previous three games. 'It wasn't easy but the Mavs got themselves on track last time out, earning an 86-75 victory over the Bucks. One wouldn't know it by the final score but that game went to OT, the Mavs dominating once they got there. With the monkey (of getting their first win) off their back, I expect the Mavs to build some positive momentum from that effort. Even without Dirk, they're the more experienced team in this matchup. They've dominated the Lakers in recent seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. While the Nuggets come in as the hotter team, I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis started the season dealing with a number of injuries but is now starting to get healthier. Last time out, Chandler Parsons made his season debut for the Grizzlies. While he admittedly didn't shoot well (0 for 8!) he's now got a game under his belt and will make this team stronger, even if minutes are limited a little at first. Playing the final game of a 4-game home-stretch and off b2b losses, the Grizzlies badly want to bounce back and salvage the split of the four games. Note that they're 14-10-2 ATS (16-10 SU) the past couple of seasons, off an 'upset' loss. Opposite of the Grizzlies, the Nuggets are playing the final leg of a road trip. They're just 6-12-3 ATS the last 21 times that they played their previous three on the road. Off their upset win at Boston, it wouldn't be a stretch for them to get caught looking ahead to Thursday's home showdown vs. the Warriors. The Grizzlies are 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) the last 18 times that they played their previous three or more games at home. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Mavs in their first game of the season, a 130-121 loss at Indiana. The Mavs played relatively well in that game, as they took a tough Pacers team to OT. Losing in OT to start the season seemed to take a toll though, as did four straight games against teams from the West. Indeed, the Mavs enter today's game with an 0-5 record and now playing without Dirk. They finally get to "host" an Eastern Conf. team though. In fact, this is the first time that the Mavs have actually been favored in a game. Knowing that opportunities like this one may be few and far between and desperate for their first win, I expect the Mavs to give us a highly motivated effort. The home team won both games last season; the Bucks won by one at Milawaukee but the Mavs won by 10 here at Dallas. Look for them to rise to the occasion with another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. That was a tough spot for them though. Not only were they on the road but they were coming off a big win over the Knicks the previous night and playing their third game in the past four nights. I thought fatigue might be a factor, and it was. That won't be the case tonight, however, as the Pistons have had the past two days off. They're also back home, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Its true that the Nuggets are playing pretty well right now. They've split their first four games, covering three of them, with all four games being competitive. This is already their fourth road game through their first five games though and it represents the middle games of their current 5-game trip. While the Nuggets, 7-10-2 ATS their last 19 as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, did have last night off, they may be getting a little road weary already, all the close games taking a toll. Either way, they'll be taking on a Pistons team which has beaten every team by double-digits here. Though they lost last season, the Pistons have won 15 of the last 18 meetings with the Nuggets here. With the Pistons also at 21-6 ATS the last 27 times that they were off an "upset" loss, I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Pelicans are hungry for their first win and this should be an excellent spot to get it. While the Pelicans are 0-5, the Suns (1-4) haven't been much better. Give them credit for beating Portland last game. However, keep in mind that they were playing in Phoenix and that the Blazers were coming off a loss vs. the Warriors the previous night. The Suns are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 114.5 to 104. The Pelicans are 24-15-2 ATS against Pacific Division teams the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS home record in games against the Suns. The lone Suns win (4/9) was a game where Davis (and a laundry list of others) didn't play and where the Pelicans were off an upset win the night before and playing their fourth game in five nights. Things set up much more favorably for the Pelicans this time. When they hosted the Suns last November, with Davis in the lineup, they beat them by six. Davis had an off-shooting night (until the 4th) and still finished with a 32/19 stat-line, to go along with four blocks and two steals. Look for him to "will" the Pelicans to another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on GS 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors dropped their first game of the season, a home loss against the Spurs Then, they won a couple of fairly close ones on the road. Last time out, however, they put it all together with a 23-point win at Portland. Returning home, where they're still searching for their first win, I expect them to build off the Portland win with another complete effort tonight. Obviously, both teams will want this one. The Thunder will want to beat their old teammate. Durant and co will feel the same way though and they're in a better spot to do so. Not only are they playing at home, where they're 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight against OKC, but they're also rested while the Thunder are off a hard-fought win against the Clippers last night. Note that OKC is just 4-9 ATS its last 13 off an "upset" win. With the Porltand win, the Warriors are now 30-2 SU and 21-11 ATS in November, the past 2+ seasons. I say Round 1 goes to KD, the Warriors earning the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. While they got blown out by Chicago last time out, the Nets have played quite well to start the season. They're 3-1 ATS and that includes an outright win over the Pacers. This is a good spot for them and I expect the well-rested Nets to bounce back with a big effort. The Pistons played well last night, pulling away for a double-digit win over the Knicks. They're playing the second of b2b games here though as well as their third game in the past four and fourth in six. In this kind of spot, the injury to pointguard Jackson figures to prove more significant than it has thus far. Note that the Nets' lone road game resulted in an 18-point loss. This hasn't been a good role for the Pistons in recent seasons, as they're only 1-4 ATS their last five as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. (All four non-covers resulted in outright losses.) Its also worth noting, as the O/U line is currently in that range, that the Pistons are just 7-15 ATS their last 22 when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Nets beat the Pistons here last November, when listed as 5-point underdogs. Later in the season, they played them tough again here, covering as 7-point underdogs. I expect at least another cover tonight.

I'm playing on NY. Both teams are off road losses last night. While the Knicks admittedly seemed to "run out of gas" in the fourth quarter against the Pistons, the Rockets are arguably in a more difficult scheduling spot. Harden is being asked to do a lot in D'Antoni's offense and played 38 hard minutes against Lebron and co. last night. With all due respect to Detroit, I would argue that a game against the defending world champs is more "draining" than a game against the Pistons. The Knicks' scheduling advantage is more than that though. Prior to last night's loss, they'd had both the 30th and the 31st off. This is their fourth game of the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, have played an extra game and had to play on the 30th. So, while both teams are in a b2b spot, the Rockets are also playing their third game in four nights (and fourth in six) while the Knicks are not. They've also had to fly from the West Coast (first game was at LA) to the East already, while the Knicks have yet to leave the Eastern time zone. While the Rockets are 1-2 on the road, the Knicks are 1-0 at home. D'Antoni will obviously want a win at MSG but I believe he's going to have to wait for another day. NY wins. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. Since winning their opener at Orlando, the Heat have lost their first two home games. The first of those was winnable, as it came against Charlotte. They lost by six. The next was against San Antonio, always a tough matchup. The Heat lost by seven. Hungry for that first home win, the Heat step down in class to fact the Kings. The fact that they've also got a significant scheduling advantage figures to make matters easier. While the Heat had last night off, the Kings were busy playing at Atlanta. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their fifth game in the past seven nights, a fairly grueling schedule right out of the gate. In other words, as both teams played their first game on 10/26, the Kings have squeezed an extra game into the same number of days while also flying from the West Coast to the East coast. Look for the Heat, who have yet to leave the state of Florida, to take advantage of the favorable schedule, sending the fans home with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. This game has some interesting storylines. Denver rookie Jamal Murray, who is from Kitchener, will be playing in Toronto for the first time. The game also features a pair of young centers who are both playing well, Valanciunas and Jokic. I believe that homecourt combined with the Raptors' superior backcourt will ultimately prove the difference though. The Raptors haven't forgotten that it was the Nuggets who snapped their 11-game winning streak last February 1, in Denver. Nor have they forgotten that the Nuggets also upset them 106-105 here at Toronto last December, a game where the Raptors were favored by 10 points. Denver entered that game on an 8-game skid. The Raptors got down double-digits early in that one and couldnt quite get all the way back. This is a well-coached team, one which nearly advanced to the NBA Finals last season. I look for a fully focus effort from Derozan, Lowry and co. as they pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 14-8 ATS (17-5 SU) their last 22 home games when the O/U line ranged from 200 to 204.5. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Lakers are 2-0 ATS while the Thunder are 0-2 ATS. Those ATS results have worked in our favor in helping to keep the line a little lower than it could have otherwise been. I believe that's providing us with excellent value on the superior team. This is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game (O/U line of 214) which generally doesn't suit the Lakers too well. They're just 4-21 SU and 9-15-1 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. (During the same stretch, the Thunder were 29-12 SU at home with an O/U line of 210 or greater.) That includes a 112-79 destruction the last time that the Lakers played here. The Thunder were laying -16.5 for that game. The previous meeting here, they were laying -16 and they won by 40. In fact, they've won the last four in the series by an average of 27.8. While Durant has moved on, I expect Westbrook and co. to deliver another double-digit win against a young Laker team. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* PERS FAV. The Knicks are 0-1 while the Grizzlies are 1-0. The Grizzlies have dominated the Knicks in recent seasons. No brainer on Memphis? Not in my opinion. For starters, we can't take too much from just one game. The Knicks had a very tough opening assignment as their first game was at Cleveland. The Grizzlies had a much easier matchup - no offense to the T-Wolves, who do have some talent - as they were home against Minnesota. Also, in regards to games from recent seasons, both teams have made some changes. When healthy, as they are now, former bulls Rose and Noah figure to make the Knicks a much stronger team. Speaking of health, the Grizzlies are dealing with some early injury issues. Wright, Allen and Parsons are all out again. As a result, the tonight's (Memphis) starting lineup is likely to include Andrew Harrison, James Ennis and JaMychal Green. Those three had 24 combined starts between them, entering the season. Lastly, while both teams are well-rested, it shoud be noted that NY gets tomorrow night off while Memphis will host Washington. As a result, Memphis coach Fizdale reportedly already informed that Gasol and Conley, the only two starters with experience, may see their minutes limited. There's going to be a lot of energy in the building and I look for the Knicks to ride it to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GAME OF THE WEEK. This is the 50th season of pro basketball for the Pacers and I expect them to tip if off with a win and cover. The Pacers made some significant moves in the offseason and are expecting big things. Additions included Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Aaron Brooks and Al Jefferson. The plan is to push the pace on offense a little more this season - and early indications (preseason) are that it'll be effective. Superstar Paul George is on record saying that he's happy with the offseason moves and believes that the front office has given him the pieces/depth to be able to compete with James and the Cavs. While that remains to be seen, with a projected backcourt of Teague, a playmaker and Ellis a scorer, joining a frontcourt of George, Turner and Young, assuming they stay reasonably healthy, I do expect the Pacers to have a strong season. Dallas picked up (Harrison) Barnes and Bogut in the offseason. While both are solid players who are expected to start, I don't expect those moves to have quite the same positive effect as Indiana's moves, at least not tonight. The Pacers have swept the Mavs in back-to-back seasons and haven't lost to them since the spring of 2014. Look for them to start the new era with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE. Homecourt has always been very important to both these teams; I expect it to prove to be the difference tonight. Health also figures to play a role. The Jazz dealt with some injury issues last season and they're already a concern again this season. Heyward, arguably their best player, is out. If Heyward isn't their best player, Favors probably is. He missed the preseason, while dealing with a knee injury. He has gotten some limited practice time in lately and, as of this writing, is questionable. However, even if he were to play, he can't be expected to be at 100%. Hood is expected to play he too is banged-up. He missed time in the exhibition campaign with a sprained hand. He returned to face these same Blazers at Salt Lake City last Wednesday, Utah's final preseason game, but wans't sharp. He managed only five points, while going two of eight from the field. Burks is also out. While the Jazz do have a deep team, that's a lot for any team to be dealing with right out of the gate. These teams also played their preseason opener against each other, a game here at Portland. The Blazers won that one by a score of 98-89. I expect them to win by at least that much again tonight, improving to 13-6 ATS the last 19 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As many of you are aware, I won with Cleveland in the last game. Having successfully staved off elimination in Game 5, I just didn't see the Cavs losing on their home floor in Game 6. We're back out West for Game 7 though and I believe that homecourt will ultimately prove the difference. The Warriors earned the right to play this game here by being the best team all season long. Now, that season's worth of excellence pays off. Yes, the Cavs have shown they can win here. However, lets not forget that they were a modest 24-17 on the road during the regular season while the Warriors were 39-2 here at home. They've still beaten the Cavs four of the last five meetings on this floor, six of the past eight. Every one of those six victories came by a minimum of six points, too. The average margin of victory in this season's three home wins over the Cavs is 18. This line is lower than any game against the Cavs here since way back in 2010. I look for the Warriors, still 49-28-3 ATS (62-18 SU) their L80 when playing with 'revenge,' to repeat as champs, capping off an amazing season while covering the small number along the way. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. It would have been easy for the Cavs to quit. Down 3-1 and playing Game 5 on the road, they were essentially being written off. At least, by many. They didn't quit though. Now, they're right back in the series. Sure, it helped that Green was out. Still, I feel that the return home with the momentum and fans on their side will prove bigger than the return of Green. As strong as the Warriors are on the road, the Cavs are even stronger at home. They've now won 41 of their last 50 games here. I say: "Bring on Game 7." 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Warriors have certainly looked dominant thus far. The Cavs still have a better home record (40-11) than the Warriors (37-11) do on the road. Lebron and co have a lot of pride and obviously aren't happy with the results of the first two games. With their backs to the wall, I expect them to be MUCH better. Keep in mind that the Cavs haven't lost a game here in nearly two months. The last time it happened was when Lebron and the Cavs stars were rested, a meaningless regular season game against the Pistons. Since then, they've won seven straight here, the last six by double-digits. The Cavs won Game 3 here against the Warriors last season. History repeats itself at "The Q" on Wednesday night. 10*

I'm playing on OKC. At this point, one could easily make a case for either team. The champs seemingly have the momentum back on their side and are obviously very happy to be back home. The Thunder have already proven that they can win here though, while also showing that they can compete with this team every step of the way. While they obviously blew a golden opportunity, I don't expect them to just roll over tonight. Far from it. While the Warriors have actually gone just 2-6 SU their last eight when tied in a playoff series (0-1 SU/ATS this year) the Thunder are already 3-1 ATS in that situation these playoffs. The last two games have both been decided by single digits. I expect this one to come down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I successfully backed the Raptors in both the previous two games here at Toronto. While I still have a lot of respect for the Raptors, I'm switching up for Game 6 and going with the Cavs. Throughout the earlier part of these playoffs, the Raptors were facing a lot of pressure. They'd underperformed in the playoffs in previous seasons and they were expected to do a lot better this year. They battled adversity and fought their way to the Eastern Finals. Now, having gotten this far, they can hold their heads high, regardless of what happens tonight. As great a season as they've had, I don't believe that the Raptors, who were destroyed 116-78 in Game 5, are quite ready to "take the next step." Off their anemic offensive showing in Game 5, it should be noted that Toronto is 0-6 ATS this season, after being limited to 85 or fewer points in their previous game. Most recently, after managing only 84 points in Game 1 of this series, they were blown out by 19 points in Game 2. On the other hand, the Cavs are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points, 20-9 ATS (22-7 SU) their last 29 in that situation. They don't want to have to go back to Cleveland to play a Game 7 and I don't expect that they'll need to. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Warriors were beaten so badly the last two games that many will likely be avoiding them tonight. Not me. They're still the champs and they're still an incredible 46-3 on this floor. Even with the Game 4 loss, the Warriors are still 5-1 ATS their last six when trailing in a playoff series, 47-27-3 ATS the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' During that stretch, they're also 22-10-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. While winning the series won't be easy, the Warriors take the first step by bouncing back big tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As you know, the Thunder destroyed the Warriors in Game 3 and lead the series 2-1. Obviously, OKC was the much better team last time out. That was only one game though and I'm betting on the champs to bounce back. Curry and co. have been here before. In fact, in last year’s playoff run, they trailed 2-1 two different times. Each time they bounced back. When trailing 2-1 against the Cavs, playing at Cleveland for Game 4, the Warriors responded with a 103-82 blowout win. Prior to that, after losing Game 3 against the Grizzlies by double-digits, the Warriors responded with a 101-84 victory, at Memphis, in Game 4. Keep in mind that this year’s team hasn’t lost twice in a row all season. They’re 19-8 ATS off a double-digit loss and 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were trailing in a series. After they lost the opening game of this series, I came back with a big play on the Warriors in Game 2. At the time, I closed my analysis with the following statement: "This is a special team and I expect them to remind everyone of that tonight." I feel the same way here. 10* GOW

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors sure aren't getting much respect. They've won four straight and 16 of their last 20 here. Their overall home record is far superior to Cleveland's road record: 39-11 to 28-18. They've also now beaten the Cavs three straight times on this floor. Yet, due to the majority of the betting public being enamored with Lebron and co., the oddsmaker is forced to again make the Cavs a fairly heavy favorite. I believe thats (again) providing excellent value with the home underdog. The Raptors confidence is restored. While they certainly want more, they've now done enough to hold their heads high - and I believe that the pressure they felt earlier in the playoffs has eased, as result. The Raptors held the Cavs to just 84 points (99-84) in Game 3. That's noteworthy as the Cavs are a money-burning 7-19 ATS the last 26 times that they scored 85 or less in their previous game. With the Cavs also 8-18 ATS their last 26 as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, I'm grabbing all those points. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Needless to say, the Cavs have been very impressive in these playoffs and this series. That said, I expect them to finally taste defeat this evening. The Raptors are very well-coached, they've got a lot of depth, they play with passion and they've got an entire country behind them. I expect their very best effort here. The Cavs are only 8-17-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, 4-7 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Raptors were 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. (They won both games outright.) Despite being small underdogs each time, the Raptors beat the Cavs in both regular season meetings here this season. I'll gladly take the points but I'm expecting another 'upset' tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Perhaps all the emotion from the previous series caught up with them. Perhaps, they were exhausted. Whatever the reason, the Raptors didn't show up for Game 1 of this series. Don't expect a repeat performance. The Raptors have been at their very best off a loss as they haven't lost two straight in well over a month. In fact, they're a perfect 6-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs. They're also 11-3 SU on the season, off a double-digit loss. The Cavs, on the other hand, were just 16-21 ATS this season, off a double-digit win. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Thunder have shown that they're for real. Now, its time for the defending champs to flex their muscles. The Warriors had an extended layoff before Game 1 and perhaps that affected them negatively. Either way, they've been money off an upset loss all year, going 7-2-1 ATS and a perfect 10-0 SU. They're also 9-2 ATS (11-0 SU!) the last 11 times that they played with "revenge." Going back further finds them at a lucrative 46-26-3 ATS (59-16 SU) their last 75 in that situation. This is the first time that the Warriors have trailed in a series in these playoffs. However, it should be noted that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last, when trailing in a playoff series. This is a special team and I expect them to remind everyone of that tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. While the teams split the first two meetings here - and also at Miami -  I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. Sure, the Raptors would have liked to have stolen Game 4. They've still got to be happy with the split there though as the series is now essentially a 'Best of 3' with the Raptors holding homecourt advantage. That only matters if they take care of business tonight though. I look for them to do just that. The Heat, now without both Bosh and Whiteside, remain a sub-500 team on the road. They're just 11-20-1 ATS the last 32 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Admittedly, the Raptors haven't exactly thrived as favorites in these playoffs either. That said, I believe they're going to put it all together this evening. The Raptors haven't gotten strong play from their stars but their arguably superior depth has them still in the driver's seat. I expect an improved performance from Lowry, the rest of the supporting cast continuing to do their thing, to lead to a critical win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers won Game 3, again proving that they are capable of beating the Warriors here at Portland. Yet, even with Curry still listed as doubtful, the Blazers are even bigger underdogs for Game 4. Draymond Green kind of trash-talked the Blazers after Game 3 saying: "We'll be better. I'll be better. We'll win ... That team, they had doubt. I could tell they had doubt. And we didn't take advantage of it ... and that's on me." Green may be right that the Blazers had a little doubt. That doubt is gone though, as that Game 3 victory should do wonders for their confidence. Green's words should only add to their (Portland's) resolve. Note that the Blazers are an outstanding 28-10 SU/ATS the last 38 times that they were off an "upset" victory, a game where they won SU as an underdog. That includes a 13-4 SU/ATS mark their last 17 in that situation. Confidence restored, I like their chances and am grabbing the points. 10* 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are a different team at home. They beat the Warriors here in the regular season and I expect them to be at their very best this evening. The Blazers, who average a healthy 207.5 ppg here, don't mind these high-scoring games here at Portland. They're 15-4 their last 19 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Warriors have continued to win without the league MVP, who they'll have to do without for more game. I'll take the points but I expect Curry's absence to finally catch up with the Warriors here, the Blazers elevating their level of play and winning "outright." 10*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks got embarrassed at Cleveland. I believe they're better than that and I expect them to show it in Game 3. While the Cavs are a fairly impressive 26-17 on the road, the Hawks are an even better 30-14 at home. The Cavs have outscored teams by a little less than four points per game on the road (102 to 98.1) the Hawks are outscoring teams by more than 6.5 points per game (103.4 to 96.8) at home. The last meeting here came down to the wire, the Cavs winning by two, in OT. The Hawks were small favorites in that game and they're small underdogs for this one. I feel that's providing excellent value. Look for a different Hawks team to bounce back with a 'statement' win. 10* 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Some have already written the Hawks off. I'm not among them. While they came up a little short at the end in Game 1, they were right there. This is a complete "team" and I believe they can still give the Cavs a scare in this series. Needless to say, an upset tonight would go a long way. Note that the Hawks played one of their best games of the first round in Game 2, a 17-point blowout. The Cavs haven't been too good off a big win this season, as they're only 14-20 ATS off a double-digit victory. I'm taking the points. 10*

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers played poorly in Game 1 and still lost by only 12. They know they need to play a lot better tonight to take advantage of the fact that the Warriors are still without Curry. The Blazers are already 2-1 ATS when trailing in a series and they're 14-9 ATS off a double-digit loss. I expect a much better effort to result in a much closer result. 10* best bet

I'm playing on TORONTO. While a 5-point win wasn't enough to cover Game 7 against the Pacers, it was enough to send the Raptors to the second round. Thats a huge monkey off their back, as it had been years since they advanced this far. Without that "monkey" weighing them down, I expect to see the best of the Raptors tonight. The Raptors were very good in that Game 7 and easily could have covered. Their previous home game saw them successfully complete a huge fourth quarter comeback. This is a team which is playing very well here right now, supported by an entire (hockey-starved) country. After years of struggling against them here, the Raptors are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they hosted the Heat. They won those games by 10, 8 and 21 points. I expect another win and cover tonight. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on TORONTO. Each team has proven capable of winning on the road. However, the home team has still won four of the six games, each team going 2-1 on its home floor. I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference again this evening. The Raptors have worked extremely hard to get here. Not just this year but the past few years. They know that another first round exit is likely to lead to changes. I don't think Lowry and co are ready for that. While they didn't cover here last time, the Raptors did rally and win with an incredible fourth quarter; they're still 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS the last eight times they hosted the Pacers. I look for an inspired performance as they take the next step with a win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on TORONTO. While I won with the Pacers (and the over) in the last game, I like the Raptors here. Toronto was down big heading into the fourth quarter of Game 5. If the Raptors had lost that game, its entirely possible that I'd have come back with Indiana again here. However, they didn't. They played an inspired fourth quarter and came back for one of the bigger wins in team history. I believe that huge comeback wiill provide plenty of positive momentum here while the Pacers could be a little deflated. This is a different Raptor team from the one that has fallen short in the playoffs the past few seasons. I expect them to take the "next step" tonight. 10*

I'm playing on INDIANA. This series hasn't seen any really "close" games yet, as the winning team has won each game by double-digits. I won't be surprised if that changes tonight though and if this one comes down to the wire. The Raptors are just 4-7 ATS their last 11 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. While I respect and like this Raptor team, they're now only 4-10-1 ATS (5-10 SU) their last 15 playoff games and I think that they'll be feeling some pressure here. It should also be noted that the Raptors, who only scored 83 last time out, are 0-3 SU/ATS on the season after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 79 against Boston in March, they lost outright against Houston in their next game. After scoring 84 against the Wizards, they followed it up with an outright loss against the Suns. Earlier in the season, after scoring 76 against Miami, they lost outright (as 7.5 point home favorites) against the Knicks. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Off back-to-back blowout losses, the Hornets are down 2-0. They're also without Batum, one of their key players. That's led to a very low line which I believe is providing us with excellent value. True, the Batum loss hurts in the "long-term." However, for a team in need of a "shake-up," it may prove to be exactly what they need for a single game. The Hornets have several options; they could choose to start Lin, Jefferson or Kaminsky. Lamb also should see some more time. No matter how they choose to play it, I expect a MUCH better overall effort from the Hornets, now that they're back at Charlotte. Remember, this is a team that went 30-11 here on the season. Meanwhile, the Heat were below 500 (20-21) away from Miami. Even after the Game 2 loss, the Hornets remain a healthy 12-6 ATS off a double-digit loss. I look for them to bounce back and get back in the series with a big win here. 10* 

I'm playing on INDIANA. I respect both these teams. I won with the Pacers in Game 1 and came back with the Raptors in Game 2. The Raptors were great on the road (24-17) this season. However, they still weren't as good as the Pacers (26-15) were at home. The Raptors outscore teams by 2.5 points per game on the road but the Pacers outscore them by four here at Indiana. While the Raptors are 36-45 ATS off a double-digit win the past couple of seasons, the Pacers are 11-3 ATS their last 14, when playing with two day's rest in between games. While it may not be "easy," I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with Atlanta yesterday, a team which had narrowly "escaped" with a win on its home floor in Game 1. Having survived that "close call," the Hawks were all business and won Game 2 with relative ease. I see this one setting up much the same way. The Pistons had their chance in Game 1 but squandered it. I expect that result to serve as a "wake up call" for the Cavs. As the Hawks did yesterday, I look for the Cavs to take care of business in Game 2. The Pistons are new to this, as the team hasn't been to the playoffs in some time. They easily could be caught thinking about "what could have been." The Cavs, on the other hand, are playoff veterans and know there's no time for any "reflecting." They're 5-3 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight, when leading in a playoff series and I look for them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Celtics had their chance in Game 1 but couldn't capitalize. In a game that the Hawks led most of the way, Boston had a shot in the fourth quarter. Having squandered that opportunity, I don't think they'll get another one tonight. Homecourt means a great deal to the Hawks and they've got the type of veteran team that knows they can ill afford to let their homecourt advantage slip away. I expect the "close call" in Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call. While the Celtics are 4-9 ATS (6-7 SU) when playing with two day's rest, the Hawks are 5-3 ATS (6-2) when doing so. They'll take care of business here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on TORONTO. After successfully playing on the Pacers in Game 1, I'm "zig-zagging" and coming back with what will be a desperate Raptors team in Game 2. The Raptors had a great year. They're well-coached, play hard and they've got (arguably) the best backcourt in the East. After getting torched by Paul George in the opener, I expect them to make the necessary adjustments. This entire year has been about advancing out of the first round. They fought too hard to gain homecourt advantage only to drop both games here. While I absolutely respect the Pacers, I expect the Raptors to take their game to another level, bouncing back with a convinging win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Homecourt means a lot to each of these teams and I expect it to prove significant in Game 1. While the Celtics were 20-21 on the road this season, the Hawks were 27-14 here in Atlanta. The Hawks beat the Celtics by 24 and 11 points in the two meetings here. While the Celtics were 3-9 ATS when playing with two day's rest, the Hawks were 5-2 ATS when doing so. This is a talented, unselfish team and I look for them to improve to 8-4 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on LA. The Jazz need a win in order to give themselves a chance to get in the playoffs. That said, they also know that even if they do win, the chances of them making the playoffs are practically non-existent. That's because they would also require the Rockets to lose at home, against a Kings team without Cousins and Rondo. Armed with that disappointing knowledge, off that devastaing loss to the Mavs, I don't expect their best effort here. Note that Gobert is going to be out and that Favors is banged-up. The Lakers have plenty of motivation. Last game. Kobe's last game. Triple revenge, including a 48-point loss at Utah in the last meeting. They're 8-4 ATS on the season after scoring 85 or fewer points and I look for them to bounce back with at least a cover here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are talking as if the various playoff scenarios don't matter, Lillard commenting: "I mean, we're in the playoffs. We just want to do the right things every game. That's the biggest thing is play the right way and give ourselves a chance every night, the best chance ... we're in and whoever we end up playing, that's what it is. We want to push ourselves to get as high as we can and finish the season off the right way." However, thats not reality. The reality is that a win will guarantee them the 5th spot and a date against the Clippers instead of 6th and a date with the Thunder. With all due respect to the Clippers, Portland would much rather finish fifth. Of course, they can still lose and get the fifth spot, provided Dallas loses against the Spurs. No need to mess around though. As Lillard said, they want to "finish the season off the right way." The Blazers have dominated Denver here for years. They're 8-3 SU/ATS off an upset loss and I look for them to bounce back with a double-digit win. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on BOSTON. Homecourt means a great deal to both these teams. The Hornets are great at home (12-2 L14) but mediocre/poor on the road. Likewise for the Celtics. They're 10-12 their last 22 on the road but a dominating 18-2 their last 20 at home. That's the best homecourt record in the Eastern Conference, the past few months. That makes this evening's game all the more important. The Celtics know if they win their final two games (both at Boston) than they'll have homecourt advantage in the first round. Its true that the Hornets, who lost at Washington yesterday, have fared pretty well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this is also their fifth game in the past seven. That's a pretty gruelling stretch and I look for it to catch up with them here. With yesterday's double-digit loss, the Hornets are now just 3-8 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 7-4-1 ATS (9-3 SU) in 12 home games with an O/U line in that range. I look for homecourt to be the difference here. 10* 

I'm playing on MIAMI. While he Magic upset them at Orlando on Friday, I expect the Heat to return the favor in convincing fashion this evening. While they're obviously still playing hard, the Magic are long out of the playoff race. The Heat, on the other hand, are still fighting to secure a top four spot and homecourt advantage in the first round. While the Heat have won 11 of 13 at home, the Magic, who are expected to be without both Gordon and Oladipo, have lost 11 of 13 on the road. The Heat have dominated the Magic here for years, including an 11-point win here a few weeks ago. I expect the Heat, 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) off an upset loss, to crank up the defensive intensity, en route to another double-digit win. 10* 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The T-Wolves got a little lucky last game at Sacramento, as Cousins got scratched. Tonight, however, they're up against a better team, at a much tougher venue; I expect their 'good fortune' to run out. The Blazers, 10-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest, are 27-12 at home. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are just 14-26 on the road. While the T-Wolves are just 3-12 against divisional games, the Blazers are 10-4 in divisional play. While the T-Wolves covered here earlier, the Blazers have dominated them here for years. They're 19-1 SU the last 20 meetings, going 14-5-1 ATS. I expect that domination to continue this evening, the home team pulling away with a double-digit win. 10* 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the 76'ers in their last game and I'm coming back with them again tonight. Neither team will be making the playoffs. Often, in games involving two teams "playing out the string," the team which is more motivated is the team which gets the cover. I believe that will be the 76ers here. For starters, the game is at Philly. Also, the 76ers will be looking for their first "winning streak" since last March, which will add some incentive. Additionally, the Knicks have beaten them all three games. That means that they'll be trying to avoid the sweep here, which should also add some motivation. The fact that the last meeting (on MLK Day) was lost in double OT may have kept that game in their memories. I believe they'll be hungry to avenge that loss and to avoid the sweep. The Knicks, who are only 1-5 their last six overall, are 7-9 ATS against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season; the 76ers are 10-7 ATS (against losing teams) during the same stretch. I expect them to improve to 5-2 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. 10* 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The T-Wolves shocked the Warriors a couple of nights ago, rallying to beat them in overtime. That victory proved that they can beat any team in the leauge. That said, they've been inconsistent and they're still only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six games. I expect them to find a highly motivated Kings team waiting for them in the second last game ever to be played here. With their final home game coming against OKC, the Kings know that this is their best chance to reward the faithful with a final victory. While they came up short vs. Portland on Tuesday, the Kings have been playing well recently. They're 4-3 SU their last seven, going an impressive 6-1 ATS. Playing with "triple-revenge" and looking to avoid getting swept by the T-Wolves should provide them with added motivation tonight. While the T-Wolves are 2-6 ATS (1-7 SU) as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Kings are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10*

I'm playing on BOSTON. I successfully played against the Pelicans yesterday and I'm going against them again tonight. New Orleans is dealing with MAJOR injury issues. To their credit, they've still fought hard and have actually won a few games. That said, they don't have the talent on the floor right now to compete with a complete team like Boston, particularly not when playing the second of back-to-back games. With potentially winnable home games against the Lakers and Suns on deck, I feel it will be easy for them to "pack it in" at Boston tonight. The Celtics, who had the past two days off and who also have tomorrow off, are 7-3-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. New Orleans, on the other hand, is 3-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range. The Celtics beat a much healthier/stronger Pelicans team by 18 points at New Orleans back in December. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect an even bigger blowout tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I believe this game will mean more to the 76ers than it will to the Pelicans. Philly knows it needs one win over its final five games to avoid matching the 72/73 76ers for the worst record over a full NBA season. While they will have a couple more chances, the 76ers also know this is likely their best chance at earning that victory. Both teams are dealing with injury issues. However, the Pelicans' injury situation is far worse. To their credit, they've still played well of late. I expect it to catch up with them here though. While both teams had yesterday off, the 76ers also have the next two days off while the Pelicans will play at Boston tomorrow. That said, I expect the 76ers to leave it all on the floor while they look to to take advantage of a rare winnable game. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Mavs have won all three of this season's meetings, I look for the T-Wolves to step up and avoid the sweep this afternoon. The Mavs have won three straight. Combine that with a 2-5 mark over Houston's last seven games and Dallas finds itself right back in the playoff race. The Mavs are currently tied with Utah for the final spot with Houston hot on their heels. Speaking of Houston, that's who the Mavs play next. Given that they've dominated Minnesota again this season, I believe it will be easy for the Mavs to get caught looking ahead here and that they could easily overlook the T-Wolves. While they got a strong game from Barea last time out, the Mavs are still without starting point guard Deron Williams. Chandler also remains out while Felton missed last game. Off an upset win at Detroit, note that the Mavs are only 5-8 SU/ATS off an upset victory. Look for the revenge-minded Wolves to thrive in the spoiler role this afternoon, as they improve to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. 10* best bet

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Some of you may recall that I had a big play on the Raptors when they upset the Spurs back in December. This one sets up much differently though. For starters, we're now at San Antonio instead of Toronto. That's significant as the Spurs have been "very good" on the road but "unbeatable" here at San Antonio. Having had the past two days off, the Spurs are well-rested; they're 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when playing with two day's rest. Toronto, on the other hand, is off a hard fought, physical victory at Memphis last night. In addition to the b2b spot, this will now be the Raptors' sixth game in the past nine days. That's not the type of lead-up you want when playing at San Antonio and facing a revenge-minded Spurs team. San Antonio, 10-5 ATS (13-2 SU!) the last 15 times it played with 'revenge,' has dominated the Raptors here over the years, including a 10-point win here last season. I expect another double-digit victory here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While its true they're still dealing with some signifcant injuries, the Grizzlies arguably need this game more than the Raptors and I expect them to provide us with a highly motivated effort tonight. Off Wednesday's 109-105 loss against Denver on Wednesday, note that the Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS off an upset loss, 14-7 ATS after scoring 105 or more points AND 17-5-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points. While both teams had Thursday off, the Grizzlies also have tomorrow night off, while the Raptors will be playing a big game at San Antonio. The Raptors, 1-2 ATS the last three times that they played the front end of b2b games, are just 1-4 ATS as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks on Wednesday and I'm coming right back with them again tonight. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing at Indiana. To their credit, the Magic won that game by 20 points, their third consecutive victory. They're only 5-12 SU when playing the second of b2b games though and this will also be their third game in the past four days. While the Magic remain a poor 12-27 away from Orlando, the Bucks are a respectable 22-15 here at Milwaukee. Not surprisingly, the home team has won and covered both meetings this season. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I look for another win and cover for the Bucks, as they improve to 20-11 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OKC. After successfully playing on the Clippers in b2b games, I unsuccessfully went against them last night. That's not going to stop me from doing so again tonight though. Despite last night's easy win, a game which allowed them to rest their stars in the fourth quarter, the Clippers, still without Griffin, are expected to give Paul, Jordan and Redick the night off tonight. LA is basically locked in the fourth seed already and will now be playing its fourth game in five nights. While I successfully played against the Thunder when they lost to Detroit last time out, they're still playing very well right now, with eight wins in their last nine. In their last game here at OKC, they hammered the Spurs by 19 points. Facing a depleted Clipper lineup, all signs point to another blowout tonight. 10*

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Suns managed a cover at Minnesota last time out, losing by 'only' five points. That hasn't been 'normal' though as two of their previous three road games resulted in losses of 20 or greater points and as they're an ugly 12-25 ATS (7-30 SU) away from Phoenix overall. The Suns sometimes bring their 'A game' against winning teams from the West. However, they rarely do so against losing teams or against teams from the East. They're only 9-18 ATS in non-conference play and just 9-21 ATS against sub .500 teams.  The Bucks are 4-2-1 ATS (5-2 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more and they're also 7-3 ATS when off three or more consecutive losses. They're well rested and they have tomorrow off. Look for them to improve to 19-11 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* Personal Favorite 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I won with the Clippers in each of their last two games. However, I believe that this will be a good spot to go against them. The T-Wolves are playing well recently. They won their last game, their third victory in the last four games. They've won five of nine overall and all four of those losses came by single digits, three of them by five or less. In other words, they'd be 8-1 ATS their last nine games, if they'd been getting at least +5.5 in each. (Their actual record is 6-3 ATS during that time.) The T-Wolves have also played the Clippers tough this season. They beat them the last meeting (at LA) and lost by only four in the game here at Minnesota. Both teams had yesterday off. The T-Wolves also have tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Clippers have a big game at OKC on deck tomorrow. The Clippers are just 4-7 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record and they're only 9-14 ATS off a double-digit win. Conversely, the T-Wolves are 15-9 ATS their last 24 against teams which score 99 or more points per game, 14-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater and 12-4 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. I like their chances of improving on those stats tonight and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. With an O/U line currently sitting at around 215.5 of 216, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. I believe that will work in Detroit's favor, as will the schedule and venue. While OKC was busy beating Toronto yesterday, the Pistons have had the past two days off. Even with yesterday's victory, the Thunder are only 16-25-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 9-12-1 ATS on the road. Overall, they're still only 12-21-2 ATS on the road. On the other hand, the Pistons are 22-13-2 ATS (24-13 SU) at home and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back a little further finds them at 7-1-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or higher, 15-5-1 ATS (17-4 SU!) their last 21 in that situation. While the Pistons are off a loss (as a small favorite) vs. Atlanta, they'd previously won five straight. Also, they're 11-2 SU/ATS off an "upset" loss this season. Last year's game here was close, the Pistons easily covering. OKC was favored by 10 and won by only two. I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 10* best bet

I'm playing on LA. I won with the Clippers yesterday and am coming right back with them again today. This line is a little lower than it could have been, due to the fact that LA played yesterday. I'm not overly concerned with that though, as all b2b spots aren't the same. In this case, the Clippers, who are 10-6 SU when playing the second of b2b games, are off a relatively easy victory and it came during the afternoon. They also had the previous two days off, prior to yesterday's game. Again, all b2b spots aren't created equal. While the Celtics had yesterday off, they're only 18-18 on the road, giving up 103.7 ppg. The Clippers, on the other hand, are 24-12 at home, allowing less than 99. While they've won four in a row, the Celtics are only 4-9 ATS after three or more consecutive victories. With the Clippers at 16-9 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, I look for another win/cover for LA tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting the Pacers at a very low line in part due to the fact that they played yesterday. I'm not worried about the b2b spot though and feel that the low number is providing us with excellent value. Lets not forget that the Pacers remain a healthy 22-13 at home, far better than the Rockets' 16-21 mark away from Houston. While the Rockets give up more than 109 ppg (47.6% shooting!) on the road, the Pacers permit only 98 at home. The Pacers are 10-5-1 ATS (12-4 SU) the last 16 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Playing with revenge, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. I successfully played on the Lakers when they upset the Grizzlies a few nights ago. The next night, I successfully played against them when they lost at Phoenix. They're back home tonight though in what is arguably their best shot at one final victory. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. While he's a bit banged-up, Kobe has always dominated Denver. In fact, his 31.9 ppg against the Nuggets is his most against any Western Conference opponent. Speaking of banged-up, the Nuggets remain without Chandler and Gallinari. Faried is also questionable, having missed the past four games. While they know they haven't played well "as a team" lately, the Lakers know that they have the talent to compete with this team. Perhaps for the last time all season, I look for them to rise to the occasion with their best game. 10* best bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. I successfully played on the Hornets when they beat the Spurs and then successfully against them when they failed to cover against the Nets. While I respect the work they've done in recent weeks, I'm going against them again here. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Hornets winning both times. Both those meetings were at Charlotte though, while tonight's is at Detroit. Big difference. Even though they've been hot for quite some time overall, the Hornets are still just 14-19 away from Charlotte. The Pistons also struggle on the road but they're an impressive 23-12 here at Detroit. The Pistons know this a chance to get some 'payback' against the Pistons (and to avoid the sweep) while putting some ground between themselves and the idle Bulls. (They're currently 1.5 games up on the Bulls for 8th, 0.5 games back of Indiana for 7th.) The Pistons are playing with confidence right now. They've won four straight, scoring 115 or more in three of those. While they're stepping up in class here, I expect them to make it five in a row. 10* Personal Favorite

10* Pacers. Analysis before 7am PST

I'm playing on PHOENIX. I won with the Lakers last night. They were playing at home and catching a depleted Suns team playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though as now the Lakers are on the road, playing the second of b2b games. As the Lakers did last night, I expect the Suns to use the situation to their advantage. While the Lakers put up 107 points last night, they're only 7-13 ATS (4-16 SU) after hitting 105 or more in their previous game. They're also just 1-13 SU when playing the second of b2b games. The Suns recently beat the Lakers at LA. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to do so again, covering the relatively small number along the way. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Dallas a few nights ago, the Mavs winning 132-120. With tonight's rematch being played at Portland, I expect the revenge-minded Blazers to return the favor. While the Mavs, who were slight underdogs for the 3/20 game, are 4-7 SU/ATS off an "upset" win, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS off an "upset" loss. They're also 23-15 ATS when playing with "revenge" and 9-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Dallas, on the other hand, is 3-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Mavs are below 500 on the road while the Blazers are 21-12 here at Portland. The Mavs are 1-4 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I see them improving on those stats tonight. 10* annihilator

I'm playing on UTAH. Admittedly, the Jazz are better at home than they are on the road. They're still capable of winning on the road though, as their last game resulted in a 94-85 win at Milwaukee. With the schedule in their favor, I look for the Jazz to have the advantage again tonight. While Utah comes in rested, the Rockets fought hard, only to come up short, at OKC last night. That's noteworthy as Houston is only 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. While the Rockets would obviously like to avenge a closs loss at Utah last month, they're just 11-16 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. While the Rockets have dropped three of four, the Jazz have won five of six. The Rockets are allowing 106.8 ppg their last five. The Jazz are allowing 86 ppg their last five. Big difference. The Jazz are playing better basketball right now and I look for it to continue here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Lakers would love to reward the faithful with another win. With the schedule in their favor, this is arguably going to be their best chance to do so. Give the Grizzlies credit. Despite dealing with numerous injuries, they've won back-to-back games, covering their last three. They're playing their 8th game in the past 12 days tonight though and I expect those injuries to finally catch up with them. Unlike their guests, the Lakers are well-rested; they've had the past three nights off. I look for the fresher legs to prove the difference, revenge-minded LA moving to 9-6 ATS its last 15 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Beating the NBA is all about recognizing the right spots. I won with the Spurs against the Warriors on Sunday but went against them at Chalotte last night. Likewise, while I won with the Hornets last night, I'm full ready to go against them here at Brooklyn tonight. While very good at home, the Hornets aren't very good at all (13-19) on the road. They're also just 5-7 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. This is worse than a lot of typical b2b spots though. For starters, they really left it all on the floor and gave everythiing to come back last night. That type of emotional win can lead to a letdown. Additionally, they'll also be playing their eighth game in the past 12 days here. The Nets, on the other hand, are well-rested. They had the past two days off. Brooklyn has quietly gone 11-7 ATS its last 18 against teams which allow 99 or more ppg. Charlotte allows 100.8 overall and 102.7 on the road. 10* best bet

I'm playing on INDIANA. I won with the 76ers (barely) on Friday, when they covered against OKC. However, even then, I acknowledged that they were a "bad team." At the time, they were playing at home and getting (slightly) more points than they are here. They were also catching the Thunder playing the front end of a b2b with a bigger game (against these same Pacers) on deck the next night. Off back-to-back wins, playing on the road, and with the tougher opponent on deck the next night, I felt the Thunder might have a difficult time covering the huge number. Tonight's game sets up much differently. Instead of playing at home, the 76ers are now on the road. Worse, they're now playing their fourth game in five nights, a difficult scheduling situation for any team. Instead of catching a team off b2b wins, they're facing an Indiana team which will be in an angry mood, due to b2b losses. No reason for the Pacers to hold back either, as they have the next two days off. The Pacers have won the last two meetings by 20 and 27 points. They're obviously a far more talented team and tonight I expect them to also be the hungrier team. With the schedule in their favor, I see this one getting ugly. 10* Personal Favorite

10* Cavs. Writeup to follow

I'm playing on Charlotte. I won with the Spurs against the Warriors on Saturday. However, I believe the value lies against them tonight. Even with Saturday's win, the Spurs are still only 3-6 ATS their last nine. While they've been "unbeatable" at home, the Spurs' have only been "very good" on the road. Tonight, they'll take on a Charlotte team which has been "very good" at home. In fact, the the Hornets have more home wins (26) than the Spurs (24) do on the road. While they were upset last time out, the Hornets are still a healthy 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record. They've also won nine of their 11 March games overall, with both losses coming by single-digits. All things considered, I feel the number is generous and I'm grabbing all those points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on New Orleans. The Pelicans are obviously pretty banged-up right now and not many are going to give them a chance without Anthony Davis. They've got the schedule in their favor though, as LA just lost to another banged-up team (Memphis) yesterday. This hasn't been a good role for the Clippers. They're an ugly 9-20-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. On the other hand, New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times it was a home underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Needless to say, Rivers wasn't happy with his team yesterday. The Clippers are still pretty comfortably in the #4 spot (and know they can't improve on that) though and getting up for this game, when they have Golden State on deck to close out the road trip, may be easier said than done. The Pelicans, playing with triple-revenge, have never been swept by the Clippers. I expect their best effort here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on San Antonio. If not for the Warriors, the Spurs would be receiving a lot more attention, as they're having a fantastic season. In fact, they actually outscore teams by a greater margin per game than GS does. The Spurs have the schedule in their favor for this one. While the Warriors, who played Dallas last night, have fared pretty well in b2b spots, Golden State is also playing its sixth game in the past nine days here. That's a pretty draining schedule, particularly for a team that has the additional burden of all that extra media attention. The Warriors hammered the Spurs in the earlier meeting. That was early on in the season though. The Spurs didn't have Duncan and Aldridge was still adjusting. It was also at Golden State. This time, the game is at San Antonio, where the Spurs are 34-0, and Popovich's team has all its weapons and is firing on all cylinders. The Spurs typically play very well at this time of the year, as they're 27-13 ATS (36-4 SU) in March the past 2+ seasons, a month that has been good to them for a lot longer than that. Payback time. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers won by eight at OKC exactly one month ago. Last spring, they beat the Thunder by a dozen points here. With the schedule in their favor, I like their chances again today. While it wasn't exactly taxing, the Thunder played (at Philly) yesterday, winning by 14 but failing to cover the inflated spread. They're only 4-7-1 ATS (5-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. They're in a few other unfavorable situations/roles (for them) too. One might expect them to fare better in this situation, but the Thunder are only 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. They're also 9-17-1 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, 1-6-1 ATS against teams from the Central. Additionally, they're 8-18-1 ATS off a double-digit win and 6-12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins. Even off the OT loss vs. Toronto, the Pacers remain a healthy 23-12 ATS against teams with a winning record. I look for them to bring their 'A Game' again this evening. 10* best bet

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I know its not much "fun" taking a bad team against a good team. I'm not here for fun though; my only concern is winners. In this case, I believe the "bad team:" is in a good spot. Obviously, with a 30-37-1 ATS (9-59 SU!) the 76ers have been pretty inconsistent again this season. They're continuing to fight hard on most nights though, as they did yesterday. Yes, the 76ers are playing the second of b2b games, a situation they haven't been too good (5-9 ATS) in. It should be noted that the Thunder play a bigger game (at Indiana) tomorrow though, which may be more of a factor than Philly's second of b2b games. (The last time that Thunder played the front-end of b2b games, they lost outright against Minnesota, falling to 0-2 SU/ATS their last two in that situation.) The 76ers are 5-0 their last five as home underdogs of greater than 15 points and 16-8-1 ATS in 25 games against teams from the West. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on INDIANA. The home team has won both meetings this season. The Raptors won by seven at Toronto. The Pacers returned the favor with a 16-point win here at Indiana. I expect homecourt to be the difference again this evening. Off Tuesday's win at Milwaukee, as a slight underdog, note that the Raptors are a money-burning 12-21-1 ATS (3-6 ATS this season) their last 34 off an "upset" win. While the Raptors are tough, the Pacers beat the Spurs and the Celtics in their last two games here. They're 23-11 ATS against winning teams and I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on Charlotte. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. Now, I'm reversing direction and coming back with a play on them. Even though they weren't at their best against the Mavs on Monday, the Hornets have been playing very well in recent weeks. Prior to the Dallas loss, they'd won seven straight, covering six of those. Still, they know they can't waste that winning streak by squandering winnable games like this one. They've got the schedule in their favor as Orlando is off a win against Denver last night. The last time that the Magic played the second of b2b games, they lost by 37 points. The Hornets have more talent, more to play for and the schedule/venue in their favor; I see another blowout shaping up here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the LA Lakers. I lost with the Lakers in their last game but I'm more than willing to give them another shot tonight. The Kings have Cousins back but they're still a mess right now. Cousins isn't happy and while he'll surely put up big stats, that doesn't translate into "W's." The Kings have dropped nine of 10 and 17 of 22. Any thoughts of the playoffs are now history. They've lost five straight and failed to cover the last four of those. Yet, they're the ones laying points on the road tonight. I guess that says something about the Lakers, who are indeed enduring a dismal season. Kobe and co. don't want to go down without at least a couple more wins though and they know opportunities like this one will be few and far between. The fact that they're playing with "triple revenge," looking to avoid the season sweep should provide some further motivation. With the Kings at 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, I'm sticking with LA. 10* best bet

I'm playing on INDIANA. Playing at Atlanta, the second of b2b road games, the Pacers didn't show up for their last game, a 29-point loss. I'm not going to over-react to one bad game though, as they'd been playing really well before that. They beat the Spurs in their most recent game here at Indiana and are still 3-1 SU/ATS their last four overall. Off the bad loss, a little lower than Boston in the standings AND with a pair of difficult games on deck (Toronto and OKC) the Pacers arguably need this game more than the Celtics. While the Celts are 16-16 on the road, the Pacers are 19-11 at home. They're 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 as home favorites of three or fewer points and I expect them to bounce back with an important win. 10* violator

I'm playing on DALLAS. While the Hornets come in as the much hotter team, I believe this is a generous line on the visitors. With even more difficult games ahead, the Mavs, who are battling for the final playoff spot in the West, badly need this one. They're 2-0 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. Charlotte, on the other hand, is 2-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. While the Hornets won at Dallas earlier this season, the Mavs won here last season. While Charlotte has had some big wins of late, the Mavs have been playing very close (OT three straight) road games. I won't be surprised if this one also goes down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Typically, my "Personal Favorite" selections are on teams which are favored. However, I'll occasionally deviate from that, when I believe that the "underdog" will win "outright." That's how I see tonight's game playing out. 

The Lakers were no match for the Cavs last game. However, they'd won two in a row before that, knocking off the Magic and Warriors. They're 10-6 ATS in the second half of the season, compared to New York's 7-10 ATS mark. Note that the Lakers are expected to get Lou Williams back today, which should provide a considerable boost. While he often comes off the bench, Williams ranks third on the team in scoring. 

The Knicks are 0-2 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points. They lost both games (at Denver and at Milwaukee) by double-digits. The Lakers, on the other hand, are 3-0 SU/ATS in 2016 as home dogs of three or fewer points, beating Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. While I won't consider it an "upset," I see another win for the Lakers here. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on LA. With all due respect to Lebron, I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Sure, the Cavs handled the Clippers at Cleveland. However, the Clippers' home record (22-11) is better than Cleveland's (19-12) mark on the road. Off their big win against the Lakers, note that the Cavs are only 11-14 ATS off a double-digit win. While many don't concern themselves with the next day, I believe its worth mentioning that the Cavs play tomorrow while the Clippers do not.  While the Cavs are 2-3 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points, the Clippers are 3-1 ATS as home dogs of three or less. They're also 15-7 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon, serving notice that they're still one of the teams to beat in the West. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I had a big play (10* Personal Favorite) on New Orleans when these teams faced each other back on 1/23. With the schedule and venue in their favor, the Pelicans would win by 17 points. Here's an excerpt from that game below: 

"...Situation favors the home team here. Off back to back double-digit wins and winners of four of their last five, the Pelicans are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. Prior to yesterday, one could have said the exact same thing about the Bucks. The Bucks were off b2b double-digit wins and had won four of their previous five. Milwaukee lost a hard-fought game at Houston last night though. The fact that they battled all the way back, only to still fall short, makes it hard to take. Off that close loss and now playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip, I feel that they may not have enough left to contend with Davis and co. A look ahead to the return trip home - and the expected return of coach Jason Kidd - may also be in order. Davis, who has 67 points in his last two games, had this to say of the team's recent play: "We're just playing desperate. That's it. That's how we've got to play from here on out. Like coach said, in a couple weeks we're going to see where our season goes - whether it's just playing it out or every game matters. New Orleans has owned the Bucks here. I expect more "desperate" play, leading to another win and cover ... "
Things set up MUCH differently this time though. Off Wednesday's 114-108 victory over Miami, the Bucks have won 10 of their last 15 games here, going 8-5-2 ATS. On the other hand, the Pelicans have a 1-6 record their last seven. This time, the Bucks are well-rested while the Pelicans are off an OT loss last night and now playing their third game in four days. With the schedule and venue in their favor, the revenge-minded Bucks get it done. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers haven't won a game in more than a month. They've continued to fight hard (on most nights) though and tonight's game should provide them with an opportunity to finally stop the bleeding. Knowing that they'll play again at Brooklyn in a few days should provide some added incentive to take care of business and protect their homecourt tonight. The teams have split both meetings this season, the home team winning each time. The 76ers won by five here last month, as 1-point favorites. Tonight, however, we're even getting a few extra points to work with. Catching the Nets playing the final leg of a 9-game road trip, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. 10* best bet

I'm playing on TORONTO. A few recent ATS losses by the Raptors, combined with a hot streak by the Hawks, have helped to keep this line lower than it could have been. I believe that the low line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Hawks are looking to avenge an earlier loss at Atlanta. However, they've won just four of their last nine in that situation, so that isn't generally a huge motivator for them. Also, that game was more than three months ago, so any "revenge factor" figures to have little meaning. More important, to me at least, is the fact that the Hawks are playing the final leg of a road trip that started out in California. They haven't been home yet this month and could easily get caught looking ahead to the return home. While the Hawks are 17-16 on the road, the Raptors are 24-7 here at home. They've won three of the last four meetings with the Hawks here at Toronto, all three wins coming by seven or more points, two of them by double-digits. Toronto coach Casey hasn't been happy with his team's play lately and I expect him to have them ready to go tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against both these teams in their last game. I took the points with the 76ers when they covered against the Heat on 3/6 and I laid the points with the Bulls when they beat the Bucks the next night. Tonight, I feel the situation favors the Bucks.

While the road team has actually won both meetings this season, both teams are still much better at home. That's particularly true of the Bucks; they're just 8-26 on the road but 18-12 here at home. Note that home record is better than Miami's 16-14 mark on the road. 

Prior to the 1/29 loss, the Bucks had beaten the Heat twice in a row on this floor. In fact, they're 5-1 ATS the last six meetings, all five of those covers resulting in SU victories. I expect them to be at their best again tonight. 10* Best Bet.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Although they won by only five last time out, the Hornets are playing really well these days. They've won four straight and are 12-3 since the end of January. That includes an 8-3 ATS mark their last 11. A date with the Pelicans should allow them to add to those numbers.

The Pelicans eked out a 2-point win for in this season's earlier meeting. That was at New Orleans though and both teams are much better on their home floor. The Pelicans are above .500 at home but just 7-23 on the road. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 12-19 on the road but 22-9 here at Charlotte. 

While they managed to rally for a win, as slight underdogs against the Kings last time out, the Pelicans are far from healthy these days. They're also just 3-9 ATS off an "upset" win. 

The Hornets are 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS their last 17 against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. I expect a blowout. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I believe that this will be a tough spot for the Blazers. They wore down at the end of their road trip, losing their final three. This is their first game back home from that long trip and they've got a game against Golden State up next. The Wizards, who lost by one vs. Indiana last time out, are just as good on the road as they are at home. They're also 8-2 ATS off an "upset" loss. Playing with revenge from a MLK Day loss at Washington, I look for them to bounce back and earn AT LEAST the cover again tonight. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have been a "streaky" team. They lost five straight in early-mid Feb. That skid was followed by three straight wins. Next, came four more losses. Off a win in their last game and with the schedule in their favor, I look for the Bulls to continue "streaking" in the positive direction again this evening. 

Even with the recent losses, the Bulls are still in the thick of the playoff race. Currently back in the eighth and final spot and with tougher games against the likes of San Antonio, Miami and Toronto coming up, the Bulls know they need to take care of business tonight.

Butler came back last game and provided an immediate lift. He's their best offensive weapon and was badly missed. 

While the Bulls had yesteday off, the Bucks are off a hard fought loss vs OKC. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks here in recent seasons and that continued in the earlier game here this year, an 11-point win for Chicago. More of the same here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. While they sometimes struggle to dominate lesser competition, the Pacers are typically at their best against the league's better teams. They're currently 20-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. After closing out their road trip with a win at Washington, when listed as small underdogs, I expect them to "come to play" again tonight. Note that Indiana is 5-1 ATS its last six off an "upset" victory. Also, note that the Pacers lost by just two against the Spurs here last season. 

While the Spurs, who are off back-to-back ATS losses, play tomorrow, the Pacers have the next few days off. They can go all out here. They don't often find themselves getting this many points at home, but the Pacers are 13-5 ATS their last 18 as home dogs in the 6.5 to 9 range over the years. I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. 10* best bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. We're getting some extra line value with the Pistons due to the fact that they played yesterday. The back-to-back spot shouldn't scare us off though. In fact, the Pistons have arguably played some of their best ball this season, when playing their second game in two days. The last time that they were in a b2b spot, they dropped 114 points on the Raptors (no small feat) beating them by double-digits. Their previous b2b spot saw them win outright at Cleveland. Before that? A win and covers vs. the Knicks. Including those results, they're 4-0 ATS since late January, when playing the second of b2b games. 

The Blazers, who are playing the final leg of a 6-game road trip, have already had a successful road trip. Off a tough 2-point loss at Toronto on Friday, they could easily get caught looking ahead to the return trip home. The Pistons, on the other hand, can't afford to look past anything. They're currently in 9th in the East and badly need wins. 

After yesterday's game, Stan Van Gundy noted: "We should all be disappointed, it was ridiculous. We were just terrible. We didn't bring any energy to the game. We didn't play well at either end. It was an embarrassing performance." I expect the Pistons to respond with a much better effort today, en route to an important victory. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on PHOENIX. Admittedly, the Suns have some issues these days. That said, I still feel this line is too high. The Heat, who are without Bosh these days, haven't been asked to lay a number this big all season. They were -12.5 point favorites for a November game here against the 76'ers, who were 0-13 at the time. Miami would win by just five points. With that result, they're 3-5 ATS the last eight times they were favored by more than a dozen points. Off a record setting performance and with a road game on deck tomorrow night, it may be easy to overlook the lowly Suns, a non-conference opponent who they already beat at Phoenix. 

While they lost big last time out, I follow every team very closely and have noticed that the Suns have been very competitive off a blowout loss, since the coaching change. (They haven't had b2b losses of greater than 13 points since late January.) Only four of their last 12 games have resulted in losses of more than 13 points and only two of those have been by more than 16. I feel the number is a little inflated and I look for this one to be closer than most will be expecting once again. 10* best bet

I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Clippers. First of all, instead of laying a big number like they normally would be here, they only need to win. They're home record (20-10) isn't what they'd like it to be, but its still better than OKC's (17-10) mark on the road. 

You may recall that these teams played an exciting game here just before Christmas. The Thunder won that game by a 100-99 score. That's noteworthy as Paul and co. are 13-7 ATS their last 20 in the revenge role, 7-2 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss.

With such a high O/U number, its also worth mentioning that even with Monday's win vs. the Kings, the Thunder are still a surprisingly poor 10-20-1 ATS when playing a game with a total of 210 or greater. 

Prior to their game against the Kings, the Thunder had been involved in a thriller at Golden State, losing on a Curry three, at the buzzer, in OT. They host those same Warriors tomorrow night. While it would normally be hard to look past a team like the Clippers, this may be the exception. Note that the Clippers get tomorrow night off. Regardless of OKC's "focus level," I look for the Clippers to show they are not to be forgotten about with a "statement win." 10*

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they just blew out the Suns at home yesterday, I don't feel the Hornets are ready to be laying this big a number on the road, even against the 76ers. A look at the Hornets' last five road games shows three wins, but none came by more than eight points. For the season, they're only 11-19 away from Charlotte. Even though yesterday's game was hardly "taxing," the Hornets still had to play. Therefore, its worth mentioning that they're only 2-7 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The 76ers upset the Hornets here last February, as similar sized underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Nets have burned me a couple of times lately and they cost me last night. Tonight, I get some back from them. While the Nets were busy battling the Clippers last night, the Lakers have had the past few days off. They'd been on a slump before that, so the break figures to come in handy. This is arguably worse than a regular b2b spot for the Nets too, as it will also be their third game in the past four days. They have just two wins in eight tries, when playing the second of b2b games. Even after failing to cover their last two, the Lakers are still 7-3 ATS their last 10. They've also 14-8 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference, including an early season win at Brooklyn. This is the Lakers best chance to snap their skid for at least a week, perhaps for the rest of the season. They need to take advantage - and they wil. 10* Personal Favorite