Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Having already lost both previous games in the season series, the revenge-minded Warriors should be highly motivated to get some revenge here. I feel that its a good spot for them.
The Nuggets saw their winning streak come to an end on Monday. They blew a 16-point lead en route to a 105-103 defeat. Those type of losses can have a lingering effect and be difficult to immediately bounce back from.
On the other hand, the Warriors are off a momentum-building 96-85 win, their their third victory in four games. Since the Nuggets beat them here on 11/10, in double-OT, the Warriors are now 5-2 their last seven. Both losses came on the road.
While this game means a great deal to the well-rested Warriors, who have tomorrow night off, the Nuggets could potentially get caught looking ahead to tomorrow night's game at LA, vs. the Lakers.
Even with the double-OT loss to the Nuggets, the Warriors are still 4-2 SU/ATS here on the season. Its payback time. *9 best bet

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Spurs have been on a great run. However, they're stepping up in class to take on the champs tonight and they're in an extremely difficult scheduling spot.

The Spurs check in off a game at Orlando last night. They normally fare pretty well when playing the second of back to back games though and Orlando and Miami aren't too far apart. So, that's not the issue. Its worse than that though. Not only will the Spurs be playing the second of back to back games, they'll also be playing their fourth game in the past five days.

Making matters even worse, the first leg of that "4 games in 5 days" stretch was a double-OT game up in Canada, a game where three starters played well over 40 minutes. Throw in the fact that this is the final game of a 6-game road trip and the Spurs really may finally start to suffer from a bit of fatigue.

On the other hand, the Heat come in very well-rested. They last played back on 11/24. Note that they're 10-6 ATS (12-4 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with three day's rest. They've won four straight overall, three of them by seven or more points.

Laying a touchdown, the Heat hammered the Spurs 120-98 here last season. The 2011 game here was even more lopsided, a 110-80 beatdown in favor of Miami. Playing in front of the national audience (those who aren't watching football) I believe the Heat will be motivated to bring the mighty Spurs back down to earth and that the schedule calls for another blowout. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I lost by going against the Mavericks yesterday, part of an overall lousy Tuesday. That stunk, as I hate losing at least as much as anyone. However, whether or not I win or lose with a team, I don't let it cloud my judgement on how I view that team's next game. In this case, while they beat my yesterday, I'm fully ready to go against the Mavs again.

To their credit, the Mavs fought hard all the way last night. They still lost though, eking out a cover by less than a bucket. That hard-fought loss figures to drain their energy a bit here. (The Mavs are 1-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second of b2b games, going 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven in that situation, since last season.)

Even if the Mavs are able to immediately shake off last night's loss and be fully ready to go here, I expect them to have their hands more than full with what figures to be a very angry "herd" of Bulls.

In what has been a frustrating start to the season, Chicago hit rock-bottom last time out. Out 27 points with the third quarter winding down, the Bulls managed to get outscored 42-14 over the final 15 minutes, en route to a devastating 93-92 loss.

Unlike the Mavs, the Bulls have had a day off to "recover." Also, while the Mavs can take solace in the fact that they fought hard - nobody's questioning their effort last night - the Bulls are furious about what happened to them. This season's early struggles and Rose's absence notwithstanding, I still view this as a talented and well-coached team. I expect them to come out "on a mission."

Having blown the big lead last time out, I expect the Bulls to be fully focused on keeping the pedal to the metal the entire 48 minutes. Note that Chicago is an outstanding 24-10 ATS (27-7 SU) the last 34 times that it was off an "uspet" (SU loss as a favorite) loss.

The Bulls have beaten the Mavs three straight times, limiting them to 81 points in those games, while out-rebounding them by a commanding 52-39 average per game. The Bulls covered the spread in all three of those games, with both games here at Chicago resulting in double-digit wins. Going back further finds the Bulls at 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings in the series. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. This line is quite low. That means that a SU victory has a good chance in also resulting in a cover. I expect the 76ers to get it done.
The Mavericks are a mess. They did rise to the occasion to eke out a win against the Knicks on 11/21. However, they followed it up with a 26-point loss vs. the Lakers three nights later. (They're playing with two day's rest again here.)
The Mavs, who lost by 19 when coming off a game against the Lakers earlier, are now 2-8 ATS their last 10. For the season, they're 2-4 ATS away from Dallas, including 1-4 their last five. On the other hand, the 76ers have won four of five here at Philadelphia.
While they narrowly missed covering, the 76ers got back on track with a win in their last game. Jrue Holiday had a breakout game, serving up 33 points while also dishing out 13 assists. That snapped a 2-game skid and I look for the 76'ers to build some positive momentum from the victory.
Thaddeus Young commented: "We take a lot of pride in how we play and we didn't want to lose three straight. I think Jrue set the tone from the beginning with his aggressive play. He put us on his shoulders."
The entire city of Philadelphia is really down on the Eagles right now, more than ever after another loss last night. I look for the 76ers to step up and "restore some pride" to the city, with a solid win and cover. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. These teams met at San Antonio a few weeks ago. The Spurs were undefeated at the time while Indiana would end up going just 3-6 its first nine. Back on their home floor, I expect a much better effort from the Pacers in tonight's rematch.
The Spurs continue to play well. However, they're at least no longer undefeated, so other teams have at least proven that they can be beaten. They're off a solid win at Boston but are still just 2-2 SU/ATS their last four.
The Pacers have finally adjusted to life without Danny Granger. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games (3-1 SU/ATS L4) and got a breakout performance from Paul George last time out, a player who's been asked to score in Granger's absence. George would finish with 37 points, including 33 in the second half. I expect the Pacers to carry the momentum from his hot shooting into this evening's game.
Pacers coach Frank Vogel noted: "We were waiting on a breakout game from him. With a player you're trying to develop, the biggest battle is confidence, and when you have a game like this, it shows what you can do.''

Meanwhile, Roy Hibbert is coming off his first career triple-double. The 7-foot-2 center will be hungry for a big game, after Duncan got the better of him at San Antonio.
The Pacers have won four of five games here this season and are 55-32 SU here the past 2+ seasons, slightly better than San Antonio's (56-34) road record, during the same period.
While the Spurs are a surprisingly poor 3-10-2 ATS (5-10 SU!) the last 15 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range, the Pacers are 7-5 ATS the last couple of seasons as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect a highly motivated effort and at least another cover. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Situation favors the home team here. The Nets are off a hard-fought loss at LA last night. While they did cover, that loss snapped a 5-game winning streak.

While most teams have already been involved in at least one back-to-back spot, the Nets are in that situation for the first time this season. Thousands of miles away from home, off a battle against the "big name Lakers," a letdown wouldn't be surprising here. Note that the Nets are 6-14 SU and 7-12-1 ATS the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games last season.

It should also be noted that the Nets were 1-4 SU/ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the past couple of seasons, going just 20-57 on the road overall. The Warriors were above .500 at home during that stretch.

The Warriors won outright at Dallas last time out and they beat Atlanta in their last game on this floor. Including the win over the Hawks, they're 2-0 SU/ATS against teams from the East so far this season. With the schedule n their favor, I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. *9

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavaliers have been struggling of late but I feel that this will be a good spot for them to break out with a win.

These teams just faced each other a few nights ago, at Philadelphia. The 76'ers took that 11/18 meeting by a score of 86-79, eking out the cover by a single point.

We're getting practically as many points with the Cavs tonight as we were for the game at Philly, due in part to the absence of Cleveland's Kyrie Irving. While Irving is certainly an important part of this Cleveland team, keep in mind that he only scored nine points, in shooting 4 of 14, in the 11/18 meeting. The Cavs still almost pulled it off. Teams often rally the first game that their star goes down and I won't be surprised to see that happen here.

Note that Cleveland did win four games without Irving last season. Coach Scott had this to say: "It's always one of those things where one of your best players goes down, it's an opportunity for other guys. The biggest thing is, we still know we can win. We've just got to play a little bit of a different style on the offensive end, but we still feel we've got enough guys in this room capable of winning.''

While the Cavs haven't played since, the 76'ers were involved in a hard-fought game vs. the Raptors last night. Philadelphia won and covered but Toronto gave the 76'ers all they could handle. Fatigue, mental and/or physical, could well be a factor here.

Philadelphia coach Doug Collins said. "That was a win to remember. It could've easily been an L. We finished the third quarter very poorly. We had a lot of fight in the fourth quarter. I was proud of them.''

While they're 1-1 ATS in that situation so far this season, the 76'ers are an ugly 3-10 ATS the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games, dating back to last February. With the schedule in their favor, I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded home dog. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Knicks are clearly off to a great start. However, I believe that this will prove to be a tough spot for them and they're laying too many points.

Yes, NY had yesterday off. However, the Knicks are still right in the middle of a difficult stretch. Sunday's game vs. Indiana was their third game in four days. All were against "quality" teams. They also have a rematch vs. Dallas on deck tomorrow, a team they recently faced at MSG. I feel a letdown could easily be in order.

While the Knicks have been poor road favorites in this range, the Hornets have fared well as home underdogs in this range. They're getting roughly as many points here as they were when the hosted OKC a few days ago. Yet, I don't think a banged-up Knicks team is as good as the Thunder.

Last time out, the Hornets lost but covered vs. Milwaukee, a 117-113 effort. They've had two days off since, coming in well rested. Note that New Orleans is 11-4 ATS the past few seasons when playing with two day's rest in between games and 11-5-1 ATS after scoring 105 or more in its previous game.

The Hornets upset the Knicks in last year's lone meeting, an 89-85 victory at MSG in 2/17/2012. Playing at home, I expect the Hornets to again give the Knicks all they can handle, with another outright win a real possibility. *9 Best Bet

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Off three straight victories, the Bucks find themselves laying points on the road. While the Bucks are off to a good start, keep in mind that they're only 2-3 ATS as favorites. It should also be noted that Milwaukee is an awful 45-72-7 the last 100+ times that it was off three or more consecutive SU wins.

Looking at the Bucks' last win and we find that they were laying 8.5 points as a host of New Orleans. They won (117-113) but failed to cover. Even when hitting a season high 13 3-pointers and playing at home, they only won by four. (New Orleans would finish at better than 53% from the floor.)

I don't expect the Bucks to have nearly the success from beyond the arc here. Charlotte has held its last four opponents to 36.7 percent shooting and 25.3 percent from 3-point range.

Note that the Bucks have a game against the defending world champion Bucks on deck, followed by a home and home series vs. division rival Chicago. Off the three straight wins and with those "big games" on deck, it would be easy to look past lowly Charlotte.

The Bobcats lost last time out but the fact that they battled back in the fourth quarter was encouraging.

Kemba Walker, averaging 18.8 ppg thus far, had this to say of the new Bobcat attitude. "That's who we are and that's how we are going to be all season hopefully. When we are down, we are not going to put our heads down. We are going to try our best to close the game out and try to keep pushing. We don't want to give up."

While they came up a little short last time out, the Bobcats are also off to a solid start. They're 3-2 SU/ATS here at home, including 1-0 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to give the Bucks all they can handle with an excellent shot at the outright victory. *9 Best Bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I successfully played against the Mavericks last night. They lost 103-83 at Indiana. I feel this will be a good spot to go against them again.



Still without their best player, the Mavs are in a rebuilding phase. The players have now already accepted that fact. They're still being treated like they're a good team by bettors and oddsmakers though, which has led to an 0-6 ATS mark their last six.



The Mavs are in a tough spot. Not only is this the second of back to back games, it also marks their sixth game in nine nights. They'll be facing a young and rested Cleveland team which is happy to be back on its home floor.



In two previous b2b spots this season, the Mavs have gone 0-2 SU/ATS, losing 113-94 at Utah and 101-97 at Charlotte. I played against them there and am doing so again tonight. *9

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I won with the Grizzlies last night and am well aware that they're off to an excellent start. I feel that they're a bit over-valued tonight though and also that they're susceptible for a letdown.

The Grizzlies' last four games against Houston, a divisional opponent, Miami, the defending NBA champion, OKC, the defending Western Champs and New York, an undefeated team. Off all those big wins, it will likely be easy to look past lowly Charlotte.

Note that the Grizzlies are in one of their worst roles; they're 2-7 ATS as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. They lost six of those outright, too.

While their streak isn't as impressive as the Grizzlies' current streak, the Bobcats have quietly gone 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games. They're 3-1 SU/ATS here on the season, outscoring teams by a 98.2 to 94.7 margin.

The Bobcats covered the spread against the Grizzlies here last season, losing by five. With the schedule in their favor, I expect at least another cover here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards have yet to break through into the win column. However, with a 4-3 ATS record, they've been competitive. I feel tonight will provide them an excellent opportunity to earn that elusive first victory.

While the Wizards had the last two nights off, the Jazz are off a 99-93 loss at Philadelphia. They're playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip and their sixth game in last nights. All six of those games were in a different city.

The Jazz only played a road game, after playing the previous night, once this season. That resulted in a double-digit loss.

Including last night's loss, the Jazz are a money-burning 43-73-5 ATS the last 100+ times that they played a road game with an OU line in the 185 to 189.5 range, 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) their last 10 in that situation. I'll grab the points but will not be surprised when the Wiz step up and score the upset. *9

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Both teams are off to great starts, each winning outright as an underdog in its last game. While both teams have been strong off an "upset" win, I feel that last night's hard-fought battle at San Antonio will catch up with the Knicks here.

While the Knicks are getting far more publicity for their fast start, the Grizzlies are 6-0 SU/ATS their last six. They beat OKC last time out, after beating Miami before that. Both victories came by double-digits. They're now 23-8 ATS the past few seasons, when off a SU victory as an underdog.

True, the Knicks are averaging more than 103 points per game. However, its also true that the Grizzlies are 49-23 ATS the past few seasons vs. teams that score 99 or more.

The Grizzlies, who had last night off, are very tough at home. They're 3-0 SU/ATS already this season, moving to 66-21 SU and 51-34-2 ATS here the past few years. When these teams met here last season, the Grizzlies won by a score of 94-83. A similar result won't surprise. *9

I'm playing on INDIANA. Both teams are still without their best player. Each has struggled of late. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS their last four while the Mavericks are 0-5 ATS their last five. Playing at home, I expect the Pacers to be the team which bounces back with a win and cover.

The Pacers have still won two of three while the Mavs have lost three of four on the road.

Indiana won by 11 in last year's lone meeting and that was at Dallas. With that loss, the Mavs are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 against teams from the Central.

The Mavs have numerous new faces, are in a rebuilding mode and are likely in for a long season. The Pacers still have high hopes of being among the top teams in the East. If they want to keep those hopes alive, these are the kind of games that they need to win. I expect them to do just that tonight. *9

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting a little extra value with the visiting Pacers here based on the fact that they played last night. However, each back to back situation needs to be looked at closely. In this case, the Pacers had the previous two days off. So, its not like they're in a three games in four days, or four in five, situation. Obviously the Pacers can't be too happy with the fact that they were beaten by the Raptors last night; I expect that loss to provide some added motivation here.

Note that the Pacers are already 2-0 SU when playing the second of back to back games this season and that they're now 8-1 SU the last nine times that they were in that situation, dating back to last season.

The Pacers have had some recent success here. They were a 3.5 point underdog in their most recent visit here and won outright by six. Note that the Pacers were also playing the second of back to back games for that one too, as they'd hosted Cleveland the previous night. Including that victory, the Pacers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five series meetings, 3-0 SU/ATS their last three here at Milwaukee. They were underdogs for all three of those games but won by 6, 21 and 6 points.

The Pacers are also in one of their better roles here. Including the win in their last game here, they're 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. With the Bucks getting outscored by an average of 102 to 95.7 at home so far this season, I expect at least another cover for the Pacers here. *9

I'm playing on INDIANA. I played on the Raptors when they hosted the Pacers in their opener. The Raptors were coming off a great preseason and I felt that they would be "pumped up" for their home opener. That was indeed the case. The Raptors got a great debut from Kyle Lowry and played the Pacers tough the entire way. They would eventually lose by two points, which could have been an ATS win, loss or a push, depending on when and where one played.

Things don't set up nearly so well for the Raptors this time. The "good feeling" from the preseason is long gone. The Raptors have dropped four straight and are now 1-6 on the season. (They might want to think about sending me some season's tickets as I attended their lone victory, while recently visiting Toronto; they remain 100% when I've watched them.)

They're also on the road, at a very difficult venue, one where they've really struggled. The Raptors have lost seven straight at Indiana and they've gone 1-6 ATS in those games. Three of their last four trips here resulted in losses of 15 or more points.

Making matters worse, the Raptors are short-handed and they're in an awful scheduling spot. Coming off a triple-OT heartbreaker and now playing their third game in four nights, they'll be facing a rested Pacers team which has had the past two days off.

Sure, the Raptors would love to avenge the loss in the home opener. They're just 17-27-2 ATS (7-39 SU) the past few seasons when attempting to avenge a home loss though and this isn't the spot for them to do it.

The Pacers have won both their games here. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to put it all together with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have been winning but not covering. They're 4-2 SU but only 1-5 ATS. Tonight, however, the line is low enough that a SU victory has an excellent chance in also resulting in a pointspread cover.

Note that Boston is 45-47 SU on the road the past few seasons while Chicago is 73-18 SU at home. That includes a 5-3 ATS (7-2 SU) mark as home favorites of three or fewer points.

The Celtics had last night off, as did the Bulls. However, the Celts were in a back-to-back spot before that, which wasn't the case for Chicago. That means that Boston is playing its third game in four days, while also playing its second straight on the road.

While the Bulls are outscoring teams by a 94.5 to 88.7 margin, the Celts are being outscored by a 99.5 to 96.7 margin.

The Bulls have dominated the Celtics here in recent seasons. In fact, they're 5-0 SU/ATS the last five meetings here. All five of those victories came by a minimum of seven points, too. Note that Chicago was laying -6.5 and -7.5 points in last year's two games and that we're getting a far better line to work with here.

The Bulls are closing out a 5-game homestand. With five straight road games on deck, they should really want to make this one count. A team which seemingly loves its home cooking, the Bulls are 18-6 ATS (20-4 SU) the past few seasons, after playing their previous three or more at home. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I believe that we're getting excellent value with the home underdog here. Both teams played and lost last night. I expect that to affect the Nowitzki-less Mavericks more than it does the Bobcats.

For starters, the Bobcats are at home. So, they got to sleep in their own beds.

Perhaps more importantly, the Bobcats early schedule has been far more manageable. This will be just their fifth game of the season and only the third since playing at Dallas on 11/3.

On the other hand, during that stretch, the Mavs have squeezed an extra game in there. This will be their fourth game since hosting Charlotte on the 3rd. It also marks their seventh game overall, four of those on the road.

In other words, fatigue may be a bigger factor for the Mavs than it is the Bobcats. Also, note that the Mavs played next on 11/12 when the Bobcats don't play again until 11/13.

While they did get blown out at Dallas earlier this season, the Bobcats covered the spread in last year's lone meeting. Playing at Dallas and getting 14.5 points, they lost by only five.

Back home, playing with recent "revenge" and having a scheduling edge, I expect at least another cover here. *9 Best Bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. Tough start for the Pistons but they've been competitive and this is a good spot for them. While the Pistons are 0-5 SU, four of their five losses have come by less than a dozen points, three of those losses coming by eight or less. Last time out, they lost by only two. Of course, a "close loss" here will get them the cover.



While the Pistons had last night off, the Thunder are off a hard-fought victory at Chicago. That was a big "TV" game against an elite team and a letdown, physically and/or emotionally, would not be surprising. Note that three of OKC's victories have come by 11 or less. While they are a young team, this is their sixth game in the first nine nights of November, which I feel may catch up with them here.



The Pistons are 9-6 ATS the last 15 times that they'd played at least three consecutive games on the road. During that stretch, they're also a lucrative 30-15 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. I expect them to improve on those stats, giving their hosts a much tough game than most will be expecting. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CHICAGO. With Rose out, we're getting the Bulls as an underdog here. With all due respect to the Thunder, who are indeed a very good team, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.

Sure, the Thunder beat up on the Raptors last time out. However, that game was at OKC and Toronto was short-handed, as its best player and leading scorer (Lowry) left with 1:29 left in the second quarter with a right ankle sprain and did not return.

Prior to that victory, the Thunder hadn't looked all that impressive and appeared to be missing Harden. They lost their lone road game and they were also beaten by double-digits by Atlanta.

The Bulls haven't been covering but they've still won three of four.

The Bulls are at their best when getting "disrespected." They're 17-9 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons and that includes a perfect 5-0 ATS record as home underdogs of three points or less. I expect them to step up and improve on those stats tonight. *9

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While they've gotten off to a 2-0 start in the "post Howard era," I believe that the Magic are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

While taking the points may seem like an attractive option, note that the Magic have long struggled as road underdogs in this range.

The well-coached Bulls have had a couple of days off since getting upset here by New Orleans. They should be anxious to make things right. Note that they're 34-15 ATS (38-11 SU) the past couple of seasons, after facing a team from the Western Conference in their previous game. During that stretch, they're also a dominating 23-9 ATS (25-7 SU) when off an upset loss.

The Bulls have beaten the Magic five of the last six times the teams have faced each other, including a 26-point destruction (at Orlando) last meeting. I expect another double-digit win tonight. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks are off to a 2-0 start and NY fans are already starting to get excited. I expect the revenge-minded 76ers to put a temporary halt to the NY love in this evening though.
Outplayed on the road while playing an early game, the 76ers should be far more comfortable now that they're back on their home floor. I'm aware that Bynum and Richardson are out - but still feel this team has enough to defend its home floor and that we'll be seeing an inspired defensive effort tonight.
Note that the 76ers permitted a mere 75 points in their lone home game, an 84-75 victory over the Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Knicks will now be playing their first road game.
Even with yesterday's loss, the 76ers still 26-12-1 ATS the past couple of years, during the first half of the season. During that time, they're 13-6 ATS (14-5 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 184.5 to 189 range.
Ultimately, I look for the 76ers to want it a little more and for them to outwork the Knicks, en route to a win and cover. *9 Personal Fav

I'm playing on TORONTO. True, the Raptors are off a hard fought loss at Brooklyn last night. However, they had each of the previous two nights off, so its not all that grueling, as far as back-to-back spots go. Also, the fact that they are in a b2b spot has actually worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it would have been otherwise.

Yes, the T-Wolves have an exciting young team. Yes, they're off a 92-80 victory in their first game. However, that win was at home (against Sacramento) and this is a team which was an awful 7-16-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win.

More importantly, let's not forget that both Rubio and Love, the two players which make this "an exciting young team" are both out.

The Raptors have fought very hard in each of their two games and could have easily won both. I expect a similar effort today and this time, I look for it to translate to a win and cover. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The new look Rockets got off to a great start. Harden had a huge debut and they won outright at Detroit. The Hawks represent a significant step up in class, however. Playing their home opener, I expect a highly motivated performance leading to a big win.

While the Rockets, who are young and still adjusting to their new teammates/roles, have struggled away from Houston, the Hawks have been getting it done here for years. The Rockets were only 31-44 on the road, the Hawks were 53-30 at home the past couple of seasons.

Yes, the Hawks have a number of new faces of their own. They've still got a very solid nucleus though and I like some of the moves they made. While Johnson had very good numbers of the years here, I feel it was time that the Hawks got rid of him. The Hawks have plenty of scoring options and should have no trouble running with the Rockets.

I believe we're getting very fair value with the Hawks, based partly on Houston's big win.

Ultimately, I expect homecourt to be the difference and the Hawks to begin the "new era" with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Pacers, playing without leading scorer Granger, had real trouble with Toronto in their opener. They did eke out a SU victory in that game but it only came by two points; and they trailed much of the way. Now, they find themselves laying roughly a "touchdown" on the road. I feel that is asking too much of them right now.
The Bobcats are playing their home opener, as was Toronto. They've got a new coach and some new players. While it may not last the whole season, for right now that gives this team new hope.
Coach Dunlap has brought a "no-nonsense" fundamental approach and has been practicing his new team hard. I expect his team to play hard here.

The Pacers are only 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Look for them to have their hands full, again. *9

I'm playing on UTAH. Difficult spot for the Mavericks here. They came through with a big win at LA last night, having to work hard to do it. That puts them in a natural letdown spot, both physically and emotionally. Not only are the Mavs short-handed (no Dirk and likely no Kaman) on players, they're also still adjusting to numerous new faces in the lineup; a team still very much in transition.

The Jazz are almost always tough here at Salt Lake City and they should be fully "pumped up" for their home opener. Note that the Jazz were 3-0 here in the preseason, after going 25-8 here last regular season.

The Jazz are deep up front and I expect them to have a big edge against the depleted Mavs in that area.

Bottom line. I'm not convinced the Mavs are "back" based on one win and am expecting a blowout win for a rested Jazz team, looking to get rid of the bad taste of last year's postseason. *9

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Pacers won a playoff series last season and expectations are high in Indiana. With a game against lowly Toronto, many are going to jump on the chance to play the "better" team at such a low number. I'm expecting an upset though.

A new season brings new hope. The Raptors are off an excellent preseason and are playing with confidence. They were 4-0 in the preseason here, going 5-1 overall. They closed out the exhibition campaign with five straight wins. The Pacers, on the other hand, were 1-3 on the road. True, preseason results certainly need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, my point is that the Raptors bring some confidence to the table.

Last year, the Raptors played a lot of games without their "superstar," Andrea Bargnani. They're a much better team with him in the lineup and he'll be in there tonight.

On the other hand, the Pacers will be without their top scorer, as Granger is out with an injury. Note that while Granger averaged nearly 19 points (18.7) per game, no other Indiana player averaged 13 points last season.

Note that the Pacers were only 3-5 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points the past couple of seasons. (All five ATS losses were also "SU" losses.)

It should also be noted that Raptors coach Dwane Casey is 3-0 in season openers. I expect him to have his team ready to go, as they shock their short-handed guests with their hustle and determination. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on LA. At first glance, this line may look a little high to some. While the Lakers are normally quite a "public darling," the current sentiment is that they will need some time to gel. A winless preseason certainly supports that view. I'm not buying it though. While they may hit a couple of skids through the season - most teams do - I feel the Lakers are capable of dominating from Day 1. I expect them to give us a taste of how good they can be tonight.

While the Lakers may be without Kobe, currently a gametime decision, the Mavs are definitely without Dirk. I expect Kobe to play - but am fine even if he doesn't, I expect a comfortable win for the home team.

Coach Brown said this of Kobe's status: "I know he's hurt and I don't know what exactly that means. He's a tough guy and one of the toughest guys I've ever been around."

While the focus is on LA's big acquisitions, the Mavs have made plenty of offseason moves of their own - and will also need time to gel. Indeed, they've not no fewer than eight newcomers this season. They've got other injuries too, not just Nowitzki. Those injuries may force Eddy Curry into a starting role; he's only played 24 games the past four years.

The Lakers swept the Mavs last year. I expect another victory, the home team earning the cover along the way. *9 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. Since successfully backing the Thunder in Game 1, I've been sticking with the Heat in these Finals. I'm switching sides in Game 5 though, as I don't think this talented Thunder team is quite ready to say die. History says that teams that are up 3-1 in the Finals go on to win the series. Those teams don't always win Game 5 though - and the Thunder are the type of team that doesn't care about what history says. While this is an elimination game, in a way, the pressure is off the Thunder. They know they are now expected to lose. As a result, I expect them to be loose. Let's not forget that every game has basically come down to the wire. By no means do the Thunder feel outclassed or intimidated. Despite the last couple of losses, note that the Thunder are still a terrific 66-38 ATS the past 100+ times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also still 9-4 ATS the past few playoffs, when trailing in a series. The Heat, who have now won three consecutive games, are just 11-15 ATS when having won their previous three games. Off three straight loses, note that the Thunder are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they'd lost three in a row. The only time that they were in that situation this season, they responded with a convincing 16 point victory. With the pressure off, I expect them to "relax" and respond with their best effort of the series. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. These are both excellent teams and this has been a close series so far. As you know, Miami has won and covered in each of the last two games, since dropping the opener. As the Thunder had quite a chance to cover the spread in Game 3, many will look to 'zig-zag' and back them in Game 4. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the Heat, as the Game 4 line is now even lower than it was for Game 3. I also look at things a little differently. Rather than assume that the Thunder will bounce back, just because they were "very close" in Game 3, I feel that the close loss can be hard to recover from. And that Miami's "close win" can be both a "wake up call" (not that the Heat need one!) and a source of momentum. While there are plenty of stats one could point to for both teams, I feel that homecourt, "Finals Experience" and Lebron's desire to win will ultimately again prove the difference. Even though the games in this series have been close, each one has still ended up being decided by a minimum of four points and the winning team has covered in each case. Given the relatively low number, I feel that's likely to be the case again. The Thunder are a very respectable 25-16 on the road. However, the Heat are a commanding 37-7 at home. Obviously, they really really want to win this series. However, the Thunder have already taken the next step, by winning the West. Even if they lose here, they've established themselves as a top Western team for many years to come. They're likely to be back in the Finals again, perhaps several times. Unlike the Thunder, the Heat have been here before and lost. (They won before Lebron came but are 0-1 in the Finals with him.) They're on a mission and anything less than winning this series will be considered a massive failure. They know they can seize control by winning this pivotal game but also that the Thunder will gain the advantage if they win it. I don't expect any letdown whatsoever. Rather, I feel that Lebron will be "all business" and in "smelling blood" mode. He desperately wants this championship, arguably more than any other player. The Heat are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. With Lebron willing them to victory, I expect them to improve on those stats Tuesday night. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY in the FIRST HALF. Perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder were a little nervous due to Tuesday being their first game in the NBA Finals. Perhaps they were a bit rusty, due to having had a much longer layoff than the Heat. Or, perhaps they just ran into a Miami team which was still rolling with momentum from its big Game 6 and Game 7 victories over Boston in the previous series. Whatever the reason, or combination of reasons, the Thunder stumbled out of the gate in the opening game. They were down 29-22 at the end of the first half and 54-47 at halftime. That's actually the second time in a row they were down at half. However, before that, the Thunder had been leading at halftime in five of their previous games, including three straight. They had halftime leads of 52-44, 55-43 and 54-41 in those games. In other words, although we saw differently the last couple of games, this OKC team has shown an ability to start fast. The Heat may have had the lead at halftime of Game 1 but they haven't really been a very good first half team in the playoffs. While there certainly are exceptions, Lebron often tends to look to get others involved in the first half, before taking over in the second. Getting ahead in the first half didn't work for the Heat in Game 1 and they may sub-consciously no longer even think leading at the break is all its cracked up to be. You may recall the Heat were trailing 53-46 at the break in Game 7 vs. Boston and still came back to win by 13. They did have a halftime lead in Game 5 and Game 6, going 1-1 ATS. However, they were down big in Game 4 and down big in Game 3, Game 2 AND tied (when favored) in Game 1. Add it up and prior to Tuesday's first half victory, the Heat had gone 1-6 ATS (2-4-1 SU) in the first half of the Boston series. In other words, although we saw differently on Tuesday, this team has shown a tendency to start off a bit slowly. They won't have any rust this time and they shouldn't be nervous. They dominated the fourth quarter of Game 1 and I expect them to pick up right where they left off. Look for them to take the lead into the break, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I rode the Heat in Game 6 and Game 7 of the Boston/Miami series. I think Tuesday's game will prove much more difficult. Lebron and co. have had a couple of days off. However, they're still off an exhausting 7-game series with a bitter rival. Now, they've got to travel to take on a very well-rested and very talented opponent. Note that the Thunder are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they played with three or more day's rest. While the Heat won as short favorites at Boston in Game 6, they're an ugly 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs. The Heat were crushed by 16 points by the Thunder here back in late March. While the Heat are 22-19 on the road, outscoring opponents by a mere 95.7 to 94.2 margin, the Thunder are a commanding 34-7 at home. They outscored visiting teams by a 105.3 to 95.5 margin. They hit 49% of their shots here while holding opponents to a 42.5% mark. Some could argue that Lebron, Wade and Bosh are a better "Big 3" than Durant, Westbrook and Harden. (Really, that's debatable and will be better answered after this series.) However, I like the Thunder's "secondary" players better, at least for an opening game at OKC. Looking at some more stats, we find the Heat at just 41-42-1 ATS the past few seasons against teams from the West, including 8-10 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Thunder ware 50-28 ATS against teams from the East, including 13-5 SU/ATS this season. They've played arguably tougher competition (Dallas, LA and San Antonio compared to NY, Indiana and Boston) and I look for them to improve on those numbers with a win and cover on Tuesday. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. *10 In my analysis of Game 6, I noted the following: "...As usual, there are plenty of stats one could use to make an argument for either side. In the end, however, I believe it will come down to Lebron refusing to be denied ... " That sure proved to be the case. Lebron had arguably the best game of his entire career and the Heat crushed the Celtics, essentially from wire-to-wire. I expect James and co. to ride the positive momentum from that clutch performance into Game 7. At one point in Game 5 of the Thunder/Spurs series, when OKC won on the road, TNT analyst Steve Kerr commented: "It just feels like Oklahoma City senses it. They are ready to break through. It's like a changing of the guard right before our eyes." I believe that's also what we witnessed in Game 6 at Boston. The Celtics have given the Heat fits in this series and many times over the years. However, with Bosh back on the floor to take some of the Celtics' attention off Wade and more importantly with Lebron taking his game to another level, I believe we witnessed a "changing of the guard" in this series. I believe the younger Heat "officially have their number" right now and I expect another dominating performance. The Celtics are only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and they're also only 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU) the last eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. So, this isn't one of their best roles. After losing two straight in the series vs. the Pacers, the Heat got it together with a big road win at Indiana. They then proceeded to return home and follow it up with a commanding 115-83 victory the next game, the first of five straight wins and four straight covers. Having again snapped their skid on the road, I expect the Heat to again build off their big road win, closing out the series in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. Things have sure changed in the Eastern Conference. After Rose went down and the Bulls got knocked out, many expected the Heat to practically coast all the way to the Finals. Off to a 2-0 lead after two games against the Celtics, it appeared that might indeed be the case. However, as you know, the Celtics have suddenly won three straight. Now, they get a chance to close things out on their home floor. Can Lebron and co. step up and get it done, in hostile territory against this veteran Celtic group? I believe the answer will prove to be yes. Bosh gave them 14 minutes, nine points and seven rebounds last time out. With that playing time under his belt and some more time to recover, hopefully he'll be able to give them more minutes here. Either way, whatever he can contribute, the Heat won't be sitting around waiting for him to lead them. I expect them to get right after it. As usual, there are plenty of stats one could use to make an argument for either side. In the end, however, I believe it will come down to Lebron refusing to be denied. Both he and Wade can get to the basket and/or foul line nearly any time they really want to. I expect them to do so early and often here. This is just the second time that the Heat found themselves trailing in a series this postseason. The previous time, they responded with an 8-point road win at Indiana. Meanwhile, the Celtics are only 2-4 SU/ATS when leading in a series. While it may not be easy, I'm not counting out the Heat quite yet. Behind a big game from their stars and an improved defensive effort, I expect them to find a way to force Game 7. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. So far, the home team has won all four games going 3-1 ATS. I won with the "under" in Game 1, avoiding the side. That was the game in which Harden hit two 3-pointers in the final five seconds, one of them at the buzzer, to give the Thunder a very fortunate cover. Since then, the home team has won each game by at least six points and by an average of nearly 12. I've been on the right side of each of those games, winning with the Spurs in Game 2 and the Thunder in Game 3 and Game 4. With the series shifting back to San Antonio, I'm coming back with the Spurs on Monday night. When the Spurs had won 20 in a row, some felt they might just run the table. At the time, I stated that I felt all that talk was far too premature and that they were still in for a major fight with the Thunder. Of course, OKC crushed them in Game 3, snapping the streak. In the next game, I noted that many will assume the Spurs, who had just won 20 in a row, couldn't possibly lose two in a row. I also pointed out that streaks are funny though and that often when a big winning streak is snapped, it can be followed with a second straight loss. Sure enough, that's what happened. The Spurs have now had their wake-up call though. They wanted to be challenged and now they have been. Returning home, I expect them to respond with their very best game. This is a Spurs team which is an outstanding 28-9-2 ATS on this floor. Note that the Spurs are also still a solid 16-10 ATS (19-7 SU) when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. The Thunder are just 9-18 ATS after scoring 105 or more in their previous game. They're also only 3-7 ATS (4-6 SU) when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. On the other hand, the Spurs are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line in that range. The Thunder are a very good team. They're talented, athletic and hungry. The Spurs are still playing as well as they have in years though and they've got all kinds of experience in this situation. While the Thunder are only 2-3 SU/ATS the last five times that they were tied in a playoff series, the Spurs are a highly profitable 19-8-1 ATS (20-8 SU) their last 28 that situation. The home team is a 3-point buzzer beater away from being a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series. In the end, I look for homecourt to again be the difference as the battle-tested Spurs step up, extend their home winning streak and cover the relatively short number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing MIAMI for the first half. The Celtics are now 3-0 ATS for the "first half" in this series. The teams were tied 46-46 at halftime in Game 1. Boston led 53-46 at the break in Game 2. Last time out, the Celtics held a 55-42 lead going into the locker-room. I expect a much different result this evening though. Off their first loss in the series and having been dominated in the first half last time out, I expect a determined effort from James and co. right out of the gate. Off their first loss in the Indiana series, although they would go on to lose that one too, the Heat took control right out of the gate. They led 26-17 after one quarter. It wasn't until the second half that they fell part, getting outscored 51-32. Off their first (and only) loss in the Knicks' series, the Heat responded by jumping all over NY out of the gate. They led 28-24 after one quarter and 55-44 at halftime. I expect James to do his thing and also expect a much better performance from Wade. The Celtics were a little more hungry/desperate last time out. I don't expect that to be the case here - at least not in the first half. The Heat will make adjustments, which I expect to pay immediate dividends and I look for them to take their first lead into the locker-room. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I won with the Thunder (and the under) last game and I'm coming right back them again in Game 4. After they reeled off 20 straight victories, many people will feel that the Spurs can't possibly lose two in a row. Streaks are funny though. Often, when a long winning streak is snapped, we'll see that team follow it up with another loss. Likewise, a team that snaps a long losing streak will often follow up their initial victory with another one. In this case, the Spurs have now lost that "unbeatable" feeling. Meanwhile, the Thunder have regained their confidence and swagger. Keep in mind that its still the Thunder who need this game more and that they're now an excellent 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. While the Spurs are a very solid 26-12 on the road, the Thunder are an even better 32-7 at home. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday night, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing MIAMI for the 1st Half. I'm a little on the fence about who I feel will ultimately win this game. However, I do expect the Heat to come out "on fire" in the first half and believe they have an excellent shot of leading, going into the break. As you know, the Heat are up 2-0 in the series. They won and covered in Game 1. In Game 2, the Heat won but failed to cover. Despite the 2-0 series lead, the Heat have actually been trailing at halftime of each game. The score was tied (46-46) at halftime of Game and the Celtics led 53-46 at the break in Game 2. Having played the Heat tough in each of the first halves hasn't helped Boston yet. That being the case and off their devastating Game 2 loss, I won't be surprised if the Celtics come out a little flat here. The Celtics are very disappointed with the Game 2 loss, as they easily could have won that game. They wasted a remarkable performance from Rondo and have been complaining about the officiating. They could easily be hanging their heads a bit right out of the gate. The Heat know this is their chance to grab control of this series. A win here and its essentially over. A loss and the series is back on. That being the case, I expect James and co. to be all business right from the opening tip. The last time these teams met here was on 4/24. Boston won 78-66. However, the Heat had a 34-28 lead at halftime. I expect the Heat to again have the lead at the break here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I won with the Spurs last game, after cashing with the 'under' in the opener. Obviously, with 20 straight wins, the Spurs have been very impressive and are playing at an extremely high level. Still, with the series shifting to Oklahoma City and the Thunder now fully in "must win" mode, I expect San Antonio's remarkable run to come to an end. The Spurs are an impressive 26-11 on the road. However, the Thunder are an even better 31-7 at home. The teams split two meetings here this season. The spread wasn't a factor in either game. The Spurs won one by nine. The Thunder won the other by 12. It should, however, be noted that each of those lines were higher (-5 and -6) that tonight's game. The Thunder are favored by less here, which I feel is providing excellent value. While the Spurs are outscoring teams by three points (101.1 to 98.1) on the road, the Thunder are outscoring teams by nearly 10 points (105.3 to 95.5) here at OKC. Although they came up short in Game 2, the Thunder are still an excellent 64-36 ATS the last 100 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, 12-6 ATS their last 18 in that situation. They're undefeated on this floor during the postseason, crushing the Lakers by 16 points the last time that they played here. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Thunder are still a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Many are already giving the Spurs this series. I think its still got a LONG way to go though. Playing on their home floor with the fans providing extra energy, I expect the OKC "Big 3" to get more help from their supporting cast and for that to lead to a badly needed victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. After the Spurs won but failed to cover in Game 1, the line has dropped a little lower for Game 2. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the home team. True, the Thunder are a very talented team. They've been great during the playoffs and gave the Spurs a battle in the opener. However, as good as the Thunder have been, the Spurs have been better. They've simply been playing at another level. With 19 straight wins, this team is starting to set records. A win here will break the record for longest winning streak extended in the playoffs. I didn't play a side in the first game, instead winning with the total. So, I was able to watch the game objectionably - although this is something I always strive for. That said. I feel the Thunder were very fortunate to get the cover. It took a wild series of events concluding with a James Harden 3-pointer at the buzzer, his second from beyond the arc in the final five seconds. Despite failing to cover on Sunday, the Spurs are 30-13-1 ATS against winning teams this season and 39-18-3 ATS when laying points and 33-5 SU and 27-9-2 ATS at home. The Thunder, on the other hand, are 22-15-1 ATS on the road and only 21-21-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Off their huge fourth quarter and Game 1 victory, I look for the Spurs to keep on rolling into the history books, this time covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. Great run by Philadelphia. The 76'ers have exceeded everyone's expectations. Granted, they caught a major break when Derrick Rose went down early in the first round. Still, they deserve plenty of credit and respect. The 76'ers will get that credit and respect, at least from their home fans, no matter what happens here. Just like the Indiana Pacers' fans were still proud of their team when they lost to Miami, even the demanding fans in Philadelphia will give this team a hero's welcome when it returns. In the end, that's what I believe will happen - as I do feel that the 76'ers will be returning home - rather than traveling to Miami. The Celtics may be "old" and a bit "banged-up." However, this is still a team of former champions. They know Miami is without Bosh and they truly believe that they can beat the Heat. I don't feel that the 76'ers feel the same way. Some will doubt the Celtics due to their inability to seal the deal in Game 6. However, the fact is that the Celtics have rarely fared well when trying to close out a series on the road. They have had numerous huge Game 7 victories though. They've been here before and that big game experience - combined with the fact that they're playing on their home floor - should be the difference. The 76'ers were terrible (17 of 28) from the free throw line last time out - and that may be in their heads here. The experienced Celtics seemingly have ice in their veins (20 of 23 last game) when at the line though, a trait which should serve them well down the stretch, should Philadelphia be fortunate enough to still be in the game. The Celtics also shot much better (42 of 52) from the line than the 76'ers (35 of 52) each of the previous two games. While Allen may be a bit hobbled, he remains dangerous. The two days off in between games should help him. Note that Boston is 26-12 SU the past few seasons when playing with two day's off in between games. Meanwhile, the trio of Rondo, Garnett and Pierce is unstoppable when they're all clicking, as they were the last game here. Boston won that game by a score of 101-85. In the end, experience, pedigree and homecourt should prove the difference once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. With Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and a whole lot of playoff experience, the Lakers remain a very dangerous team. If they could have found a way to win either Game 2 OR Game 4, I feel that they'd still have a fighting chance in this series. They didn't though, suffering close losses in both those games. Losing Game 2 was a heartbreaker, as they had that one in hand late. However, at least it came on the road. Losing Game 4 at home was the real killer. The Lakers now find themselves down 3-1 and knowing they have to win three straight, two here at OKC. That's a daunting task, to say the least. (Even if they did manage to win in seven games, they'd then go on to face a rested Spurs team.) Faced with enormity of that task, while they'd naturally say otherwise publicly, I believe the Lakers have now accepted the fact that this isn't going to be their year. After coming up just short in Game 4, the Lakers are now just 14-28-2 ATS the last 44 times that they were trailing in a playoff series, 2-5-1 ATS their last eight. You may recall last year's playoffs when the Lakers faced the Mavericks. After having lost a couple of close games earlier in the series, when faced with elimination, the Lakers packed it in and lost by 36 points. While the Lakers may have accepted defeat, if only sub-consciously, the Thunder smell blood in the water. They're younger more hungry, arguably more talented and arguably better coached. With a chance to seal the deal in front of the home fans, I expect them to be at their very best. The last thing they want to do is to give the Lakers any life and to have to extend this series while the Spurs get to rest. They're 30-7 on this floor, outscoring teams by an average of 105.3 to 95.7. I expect them to close out the series with a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. When a team gets down 3-0 in the NBA, history tells us that the series is over. I'm not about to argue. Bettors know this and many aren't willing to back the team that's down 0-3. That helps to create additional line value with the team that's down 0-3, as the books are forced to post a big number. I spoke about the same thing in the Heat/Knicks series. Just as I won with the Spurs in Game 1 of this series, I successfully backed the Heat in Game 1 of that Miami/NY series. I avoided the Knicks in Game 2 and Game 3 of that series, just as I have avoided the Clippers in Game 2 and Game 3 of this one. I did come back and play on the Knicks as a fairly large home underdog in Game 4 though. Not only did they cover, they won outright. The Heat relaxed a little while the Knicks dug deep and decided to try and salvage some pride. The Spurs are a better coached and a generally more disciplined team than the Heat. They could still let down slightly here though. Meanwhile, with Chris Paul leading the team, I feel that the Clippers are highly unlikely to go down without a fight. The competitive Paul has a ton of pride and should make sure his team gives a maximum effort the entire way. While I don't normally pay much attention to the day, its interesting to note that the Clippers are 9-1 their last 10 Sunday games, the Spurs going 5-3 during the same stretch. Yesterday's game between the Lakers and Thunder was the second of back-to-back games, a relatively rare occurrence in the NBA playoffs. That game came right down to the wire, decided by only three points. This game is also the second of b2b games. With Paul and co. showing some prided, I expect this one to also come right down to the final buzzer and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. After earning a split at Boston - and nearly winning both games - the 76ers got a rude awakening in Game 3. The Celtics' stars all clicked at the same time and Boston won by double-digits. Many will now be writing off the 76ers. I'm not ready to do so though. This team has done an excellent job of bouncing back from a loss of late and I expect them to be at their best here. The 76ers are 3-0 when coming off a loss this month. Off a loss in Game 1 at Chicago, they responded with a 109-92 victory in Game 2. Off a loss in Game 5 of that series, they bounced back with a win in Game 6. Then, off a loss at Game 1 at Boston, the 76ers followed it up by taking Game 2. While they gave up 107 points in Game 3, the 76ers had previously allowed 92 or fewer points in seven straight games. They're a modest 4-3 ATS after allowing 105 or more points. That's a lot better than Boston's 2-4 ATS record after scoring 105 or more. Looking back further finds the Celtics at a dismal 21-39 ATS their last 60 in that situation. During that stretch, Boston is also a money-burning 30-53 ATS when off a double-digit win. As we saw in the first two games, both teams are very capable defensively. Boston is now allowing 88.7 points per game, 93.3 on the road. Philadelphia is allowing 89.1, just 85.7 here at home. The matchup of two stingy teams figures to favor the 76ers. Boston is just 5-9 ATS (6-8 SU) when facing a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game. Meanwhile, even with the Game 3 loss, the 76ers are 13-7 SU/ATS when facing a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game. Desperate for a win, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Friday evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LA. I won with the Thunder in Game 1. Clearly, they are a very good team. I feel the same can still be said of the Lakers though. This is still a big, talented and experienced team, one with a lot of pride. They were embarrassed in Game 1 and I expect a much better effort here. The Lakers have seen it all and they've deal with their share of blowout losses, most recently in Game 6 of the last series. They know how to bounce back. As Kobe said: ''We're a team that doesn't get down when we get blown out. We've been blown out a bunch of times this season, blown out last series a couple times. We're used to dealing with that.'' Kobe went on to say: ''Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is. 'They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will.'' Including the Game 7 win vs. Denver, the Lakers are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were off a double-digit loss, going 11-4 SU when off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. On the other hand, the Thunder are an ugly 7-17 ATS the last 24 times that they scored 105 or more points in their previous game. Teams off blowout losses of 25 or more have historically been a profitable bet in the NBA playoffs. Off the Game 1 debacle, I expect Kobe and co. to show their pride, bouncing back with a far better effort, leading to AT LEAST a cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. While I'd won with the Grizzlies earlier in the series, including Game 6 at LA, the Clippers beat me in Game 7. Off their grueling 7-game series, I expect them to be in over their heads against the rested #1 seed though. We saw what happened to the Lakers against a well-rested OKC team yesterday. Off their big Game 7 win, the Lakers got crushed by the well-rested Thunder. This is a similar situation. The Clippers are coming off an exhausting and physical series. Now, with very little time to catch their breath, they take to the road and face a well-rested, well-coached and powerful San Antonio team. That Game 7 victory was arguably the biggest in the history of the Clippers. It came on Sunday afternoon and they had to fly out here Sunday night. Prior to that, they'd been playing at LA Friday night. The Clippers are banged-up. Griffin is likely to play but he's still less than 100%. Paul and Butler will both play. Each is also less than 100%. Blake Griffin noted: "Going through a seven-game series is definitely exhausting,'' Griffin said. ''We may have some guys that are a little beat-up. That's how it is ... we can't use that as an excuse.'' Sounds like he already is, to me. The Clippers actually won here back in March. That was a game that Parker didn't play though and the Spurs have been practically unbeatable since. (The previous meeting here saw San Antonio win by 25.) While the Clippers are 5-10 ATS when off a double-digit win, the Spurs are 4-0 ATS the last four times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. They're 27-11-1 ATS against winning teams on the season and I expect them to start this series off win a blowout victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I won with the Lakers in Game 7 vs. Denver. This is a much tougher opponent though and they'll be playing a very difficult venue. I expect the Lakers to struggle against a young powerful, hungry and well-rested Thunder team. The Thunder actually lost the last meeting vs. the Lakers, in double OT. That 4/22 game was at LA though. Given the stats, it could make OKC even more determined here. The Thunder are an outstanding 61-35 ATS the last few seasons, when facing a team which defeated them in the most recent meeting. Of course, seeing World Peace figures to motivate the Thunder and their crowd even more. You may recall that World Peace (Ron Artest) recent served a 7-game suspension for a viscous elbow to James Harden's head. The Thunder come in very well-rested. That's not a bad thing though. They were 2-0 SU/ATS this season when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. The lone time that they were at home, when playing with three or more day's rest, they won by 26, a 111-85 blowout vs. Utah. The Lakers, of course, are off a hard-fought series vs. Denver. Its possible that the Lakers could have an early edge, as they've been playing more recently. However, even if that were the case, the Thunder should warm up quickly and I expect the Lakers' more tired legs and bodies to potentially be an issue down the stretch. One might think the Lakers would be a good bet, when getting this many points. They're 0-3 ATS as road underdogs in the -6.5 to -9 range though. This season's lone meeting at OKC saw the Thunder win by a score of 100-85. A similar score won't surprise tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. Everyone saw what happened in Game 1 of this series. The Celtics were down much of the way and only won by a single point. As a result, many will want to take the points with the 76ers here, the biggest reason why the line is slightly lower on Boston for this game than it was for the opener. I like how this sets up for the Celtics though and feel that the relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. When the road team nearly wins Game 1 of a series, many expect them to come back and steal Game 2. It often goes the other way. Having come very close to winning the opener, the road team can be a little flat for the second game. They gave it everything they had in the opener and could have won, only to lose. Trying to duplicate that energy for Game 2 can be difficult. On the other hand, the home team receives a wake-up call. They know they got a bit lucky to be up 1-0 and know they have to play better in the second game. While some teams tend to let up when leading in a series, note that the Celtics are 11-6 ATS (12-5 SU) the last 17 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Even with the cover in the opener, the 76ers are just 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU) as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. They're also a surprisingly bad 14-25 ATS (15-24 SU) against teams with a winning record. They had their chance to steal a game and squandered it. Having received its wake-up call, I expect Boston to be better out of the gate this time en route to a win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. Both teams were impressive in their first round series. Still, not many are giving the Pacers much of a chance in this series. I feel that the enter the series a bit under-valued and that this opening game may be the perfect spot for them to step up and surprise the Heat. I played on the Heat in the opening game of the last round. They crushed the Knicks, taking the life out of them for the entire series. That was against a banged-up NY team though, one they had dominated all regular season. This Indiana team is tougher and better than the Knicks and also much better coached. I don't think the Knicks truly believed they could ever win that series. I feel the Pacers believe they have a chance. Lets not forget that this Indiana team quietly racked up 42 wins during the regular season - not all that far behind Miami's 46. Also, keep in mind that the Pacers are a commanding 16-4 since the beginning of April - only the Spurs have a better record during that stretch. The Heat had the advantage in the first two meetings of the regular season series. However, the last two meetings figure to give the Pacers plenty of confidence here. The last time that the teams met was on 3/26, at Indiana. The Pacers won by 15 points. The previous meeting was here at Miami. The Heat won that game. However, it was a battle the entire way and the final score was only 93-91. While the Heat are 8-10-1 ATS the last 19 times that they were off a double-digit win, the Pacers are 10-6 ATS when off three or more consecutive victories. They got their "wake up call" from the Magic in the opener of the last series and figure to have learned a lesson about the importance of showing up for the opening game of a series. Note that the well-coached Pacers have had an extra day of rest than the Heat have and that they're 3-1 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Indiana coach Vogel had this to say: "'I feel great. You never know how it's going to go once you get out there, but we're as prepared as we have been for any game this year and I feel good about what we can do.'' Including the outright win vs. the Heat on 3/26, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs. Just as the 76ers gave the Celtics all they could handle in the opener of that series yesterday, I look for the Pacers to take this one down to the wire with a real shot at the outright upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I've backed the Grizzlies each of the last two games in this series and I'm coming back with them in Game 7. Off their epic comeback in Game 1, the Clippers had a lot of momentum early in this series. Things have changed. Now, its the Grizzlies who are playing with confidence. They were already written off. Now, they're back from the dead and playing at home. That's very significant given that they're 28-8 here. This is a short turn-around between games along with a very early start time. Already, I would feel that would typically favor the home team, particularly with the Clippers hailing from the Pacific Time Zone. (Although both teams have been on the time zone this entire series, the Clippers are permanently on "West Coast Time" while the Grizzlies were just visiting.) Likely more important than the time zone factor, the short turn-around doesn't give the banged-up Clippers much time to recover. Chris Paul is a great player but he's not at 100%. Griffin is a great talent - but he's not a good shooter yet and he's also at less than 100%. The Clippers, 0-4 ATS the last four times they were tied in a playoff series, are only 10-17-1 ATS (6-22 SU) the last 28 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. During the same stretch, the Grizzlies were 14-9-2 ATS (20-5 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I feel that the Grizzlies are the better team right now. I believe they "smell the blood in the water" and I look for them to win this one in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Earlier in this series, when it was 2-0 for LA, I successfully played on the Nuggets in Game 3. At the time, I noted that the betting public had jumped with both feet onto the Laker bandwagon and that many were thinking they were unbeatable again. I felt the Nuggets would be tough at home and that the Lakers were over-valued. The betting public are fickle though. Now that the Nuggets have won a couple in a row, all of a sudden they're calling the Lakers old and dysfunctional. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. And, while the Lakers may not be unbeatable, I do feel that they've got enough left in the tank to win Game 7 at home, covering the relatively small number along the way. The Nuggets came out on fire last time out. Before the Lakers knew it, they were down double-digits. With Kobe under the weather, overcoming that early deficit would ultimately prove to be too much for them. The Lakers back at home now though and its reasonably safe to assume that the Nuggets won't get off to the same kind of start they did in Game 6. Kobe should be healthier. Metta World Peace (Ron Artest) is back from suspension. Peace should help the Lakers establish the tempo they want to play at while significantly improving them on the defensive side of the ball. Pau Gasol should hungry and determined to show his passion, particularly after Kobe not so subtly blasted his effort. Gasol was quoted as saying: ''Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad. We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do.'' Note that the Lakers are a dominating 21-8-1 ATS (23-7 SU) the last 30 times that they were tied in a playoff series. In the end, Kobe is still the best player on the floor. He's 4-1 in Game 7's and I expect him to move to 5-1, spoiling George Karl's birthday along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Celtics will surely be hungry to close this thing out tonight. Obviously, the last thing they want to do is to have to go back to Atlanta to play Game 7. I don't expect Atlanta to just roll over though. Rather, I expect Boston to have its hand full the entire way; if the Hawks do go down, I believe that they'll do so kicking and screaming right up until the final buzzer. The last game here at Boston was indeed a blowout. The Celtics were hitting their shots at a remarkable rate out of the gate and had a 64-41 lead at halftime. However, that was the only game in this series which wasn't decided by single-digits. The other game at Boston saw the Celtics win by six. That game went to overtime. So, it was even closer than the final score suggests. Meanwhile, last game was decided by a single point. I believe that these teams are more equally matched than many others probably feel they are and I'm expecting another game which comes down to the wire. That being the case, I feel the fairly large number is providing us with very fair value. It should also be pointed out that with such a low O/U number, every point becomes a little more valuable - than say, a game which has an O/U line of 200. Many will expect the Celtics to come out with a vengeance, set on getting payback from the Game 5 loss and ending this thing once and for all. It may well happen. But, we should at least consider that the Celts are only 13-17 ATS (14-16 SU) the last 30 times that they faced a team which had defeated them in the previous meeting. So, payback is not always a certainty. Additionally, note that the Celts are also just 13-17 ATS their last 30 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9.5 range. So, this isn't one of their best roles, either. It should be noted that the blowout in Game 4 was the game which Horford returned. Sometimes it can be hard for a team to adjust to the return of a player. Whether or not that had anything to do with Game 4 being the only lopsided game, the Hawks are getting healthier now, as Horford has a couple of games under his belt. He returned to the starting lineup last time out and had 19 points and 11 rebounds. Josh Smith who had got knocked out of Game 3 also had a double-double last time out. Coach Drew noted: "I know Josh is still having a little discomfort in his knee but he is playing through the pain. I think everybody else is fine.'' In addition to being healthier than they were, the Hawks also have no pressure on them, as they are expected to lose. Down 3-1, they were already written off. They've been here before (now 11-7 ATS in 1st round last three years) and I look for them to put up a much tougher fight than many will be expecting them too. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. We have to lay a little larger of a number because the Grizzlies are in a "must win" situation here. I feel that it will prove to be well worth it though, as I expect Memphis to respond with its very best effort. While the Clippers are in control of the series, the Grizzlies have been in every single game and could easily be the team which has the series lead. As a result, they remain confident. They won the last game here by seven points, after their memorably meltdown in the opener here. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies are 27-8 here while the Clippers are 17-18 on the road. While their chances of winning the entire series are obviously pretty slim now, I still believe this the Grizzlies are both talented and well-coached. Lets also not forget that this Memphis team beat the Spurs last playoffs and went all the way to Game 7 against the Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals. They're battle-tested and not about to just pack it in, based on a few tough losses. Mike Conley summed up the team's mindset: "It could be the last game for us. We've got to give everything we got regardless if guys are happy, if guys are not. You have got to play for one another and understand that winning is all that matters at this point. It doesn't matter how we do it. It doesn't matter who steps up or who doesn't. We have to win.'' Coach Hollins added: "We have to win one game, that's the game here at home before us and that's basically all we can worry about." I feel that Hollins' crew can and will get the victory (and cover!) and that's all I'm going to worry about too. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the CHICAGO BULLS. As you're probably aware, the Bulls season is on the line here. Banged up and still without Rose, the Bulls return home to Chicago down 3-1. While their chances of winning the entire series don't necessarily look all that promising, I expect the Bulls to be at their very best tonight. Even without Rose (and probably Noah) this team has plenty of talent and is extremely well-coached. Richard Hamilton has been on a Detroit team that was down 3-1 (vs. the Magic) and which came back to win that series. He had this to say: ''When we played Orlando, I remember Tracy McGrady made a comment saying that it feels good to be going to the second round, so we kind of took that personally. Right now, it's personal. It's not just about business. ... It's personal. This is it. You can win and continue playing, or you can go home, so you've got to make it personal.'' Coach Thibodeau had this to say: ''That's where your mental toughness, your physical toughness come into play. Hopefully, you've been building the right habits all season long to get through situations like this. Every team in the playoffs is going through the same thing. There's going to be ups and downs. You have to be resilient. You have to persevere. You have to get through things. But we have more than enough to win with. We just have to finish it off.'' The Bulls are still 36-27 ATS (48-15 SU) when laying points. The 76ers are still 9-13 ATS (7-15 SU) when getting points, including a 2-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6.5 range. Its also worth mentioning that Philadelphia is only 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that it was off three straight victories. I expect the Bulls to both "be resilient" and to "take it personally" and I look for them to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. I was happy to see the Magic battle back from a big deficit last game, as it allowed me to cash my 'over' ticket. That was at Orlando though. The fact that the Magic did fight all the way back, only to still lose, figures to be rather deflating for them too. Here at Indiana, I expect the Pacers to have learned their lesson and look for them to keep their foot on the gas pedal the entire way. One might expect the Magic to be a good bet as a big underdog like this. That hasn't been the case though. Orlando is only 1-4 ATS the last five times that it was listed as a road underdog in the +9.5 to +12 range, going just 15-27 ATS (6-36 SU) its last 42 in that role. While the Magic are also just 2-4 ATS off three straight losses, the Pacers are 9-6 ATS off three straight wins. While they didn't cover last game, the Pacers have been the vastly superior team the past few games. I backed them in the last game here and they won by 15. I expect them to "smell blood in the water" and look for another double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. This game has several similarities to yesterday's Miami/New York contest. The Heat, listed as -8 point road favorites in that game, had a commanding 3-0 series lead. They'd won each of the first three games by double-digits, covering the spread in each case. Nearly everyone expected the Heat to complete the sweep. All that is true in this series too. The Spurs are 3-0 SU/ATS through the first three games. As I write this, they're laying -8 points. Nearly everyone expects them to complete the sweep. I had the Knicks yesterday though and I feel that the Jazz are also providing us with excellent value. I noted yesterday that the pressure was off the Knicks and that they could relax. They've already been written off. A loss here is expected. Having no pressure can help a team, as we saw with New York. As was the case for yesterday's game at MSG, its also important to note that this line is a couple of points higher than the Game 3 line. As always, every point can (and often is) be extremely valuable. One final similarity I'd like to mention about today's game with yesterday's NY/Miami contest is that the Jazz, just like the Knicks, were off their best first half of the three games. The Jazz were down by a combined 32 points at halftime for the first two games. However, they were within two for Game 3, 52-50. The Knicks were in the same boat as they had been trailing at halftime for each of the first two games but actually had a lead at halftime for Game 3. Neither the Knicks or Jazz could keep it up for the second half of Game 3. Yesterday, I noted that I felt the Knicks would fight the whole way. I also expect the Jazz to play hard the entire four quarters. With the O/U line having dropped into the 190s for the first time in this series, its also interesting to note that the Spurs are 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. The Jazz, on the other hand, are 12-5-1 ATS (14-4 SU) the last 18 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. This is still a Utah team with a lot of pride. The Jazz are still 25-9 at home, a better record than San Antionio has (23-11) on the road. I don't expect them to go down without a fight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DENVER. I won with the Nuggets last game, the first time I'd played a game in this series. I noted that I felt everyone was jumping back on the Laker bandwagon a little too fast and that the Nuggets were going to provide a much tougher test at Denver. The Nuggets would go on win by 15, dominating nearly the entire way. Many are still in awe of Kobe and co. and don't believe that they can possibly lose two in a row. As a result, we're geting an even lower line to work with than we were for Game 3. Although a very close game is always possible, the line is now so low that the pointspread is unlikely to be a factor. I believe that's again providing us with excellent value with the home team. Game 3 exposed some of the Lakers' weaknesses. It also has given the Nuggets and their fans renewed confidence. In the past, the Lakers always counted on Phil Jackson to help them off a playoff loss. Off the blowout last game, I feel they may miss the "Zen Master." Note that LA is just 7-14 ATS when playing with "revenge." Still leading in the series, I don't expect the Lakers to be quite as desperate as many others might thing. Note that they're now just 7-10 ATS the last 17 times they were leading in a playoff series. Additionally, note that the Lakers are an ugly 7-13 ATS (9-11 SU) the last 20 times that they scored 85 or less in their last game. So, a poor offensive performance in their last outing doesn't guarantee they'll bounce back with a big game. Far from it. Lets also not forget that the Lakers are a poor 15-19 (11-22-1 ATS!) on the road. They score just 95.5 points per game on the road, allowing 99. When on the road, the Lakers allow opposing teams to hit nearly 45% of their shots. They're also just 2-5 their last seven here at Denver. Denver has long been a tough venue for opposing teams and the Nuggets are averaging 103 per game here, while shooting 47.6% from the field. With momentum on their side, I expect the Nuggets to do it again, evening up the series and covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. As you're aware, the Heat have dominated this series. They've got a commanding 3-0 lead and they've won all three games by double-digits. While I haven't played them in every game, I'm not exactly surprised by the fact that the Heat are in total control. I backed Miami in the first game, a 33-point victory. While I have yet to play on the Knicks, I feel that they're now providing us with excellent value. Everyone knows that the series is now all but mathematically over. The Heat know it. The Knicks know it. The fans and bettors know it. With that being the case, few people are willing to back the Knicks here. The majority of bettors that did feel the Knicks had a chance have already lost with them. They too are mostly unwilling to back them again. That has helped to create a very high line here. Its higher than it was for Game 3 and nearly as high as it was for Game 1, at Miami. Since getting destroyed from wire-to-wire in the first game, the Knicks have gradually played better, at least in the first half. They were down by 23 at halftime of the first game. They were down by six at halftime of the second game. By Game 3, they actually had a 4-point lead at halftime. They haven't been able to keep it together in the second half yet. However, I expect them to do just that here. As coach Mike Woodson said, ''Our backs are against the wall and we are desperately trying to make a series out of this, and the only way to do it is we've got to win Game 4 to force Game 5. And our fans deserve a win and this organization deserves a win, so we've got to go out and give it all we can.'' Miami knows New York is going to come out hungry. Udonis Haslem had this to say: 'It's going to be very tough. Obviously, they're a lot of veteran guys. They've got a lot of pride. At one point, Game 3 could have went either way. The score didn't reflect how close it was ...'' The Knicks are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. (All four covers also resulted in outright victories.) They're also 2-1 SU/ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. The Heat are 0-2 ATS on the road, when playing with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. They're also 3-4 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Additionally, note that Miami is only 6-10 ATS after allowing 85 or fewer points in its previous game. The pressure is off the Knicks. They're expected to lose. I believe that will help them be "loose" and allow them to play their best game. While that still may not be enough to steal a game, I do expect them to be in it the entire way, earning AT LEAST a cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs certainly looked dominant in the first two games at San Antonio. That dominance has helped to provide us with quite a high pointspread here. I expect a much better effort from the Jazz here at Salt Lake City though and therefore feel that the number is very generous. While they've had real trouble on the road, the Jazz are a much better team at home. They were 11-22 on the road during the season but a terrific 25-8 at home. In fact, that's a better record than San Antonio (22-11) had on the road. Not only do the Jazz score far more points here than they do on the road, they also allow significantly fewer. They outscored teams by a solid 101.9 to 95.9 margin here this season. San Antonio's Boris Diaw had this to say: ''We know the third game will be the hardest in the series" Given their excellent home record, its not that surprising to learn that the Jazz were 2-0 SU/ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. These teams played twice here this season. The Spurs won the first meeting here. However, that victory came by only four points. The Jazz won the most recent meeting here, a 91-84 victory on 4/6/ Utah's Al Jefferson had this to say: "It's been a roller coaster ride all year. We've been through it and always find our way to bounce back. I think we got one more bounce back in us.'' I expect Jefferson and co. to indeed bounce back, earning AT LEAST a cover and improve to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they played with two or more day's rest in between games. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DENVER. After the Lakers won the first two games of this series, many are starting to say they again look like champions. While its true that LA has looked very good, I think its a little too early to anoint them as Western Conference Champs. In fact, I expect them to stumble tonight. Like many teams, the Nuggets are much better at home. They're used to the high altitude here and tend to feed off their home crowd. The Nuggets were 20-13 at home this season. On the other hand, the Lakers were only 15-18 SU (11-21-1 ATS!) on the road. While the Nuggets have had some trouble at LA, they're 4-2 the last six times that they hosted the Lakers. Those four victories came by an average of 10.75 points. While the Nuggets do give up a lot points, the also score a lot. They're averaging 103.1 here at Denver (103.8 overall) while the Lakers are scoring 95.8 away from LA. The Lakers don't tend to fare all that well against teams that allow a lot of points either. After failing to cover in Game 2, they're now just 4-9 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more per game. History has proven that its practically impossible to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs. That said, teams which are down 2-0 and favored at home for Game 3, have shown a tendency to do very well. I expect that to be the case here as the Nuggets get back into the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I was on the wrong side of the Grizzlies' meltdown in Game 1. A painful loss for all involved. I'm willing to come back with them again here though. While we typically have to lay a fairly high number, home teams which are down 0-1 usually seem to do pretty well with their back to the wall in Game 2. We already saw that with the Pacers. Having dropped the opener on their home floor, they came back and crushed the Magic (at least in the second half) in Game 2. I feel that the Grizzlies have the talent, experience and coach to be able to also bounce back from the Game 1 debacle with a big effort in Game 2. Off such a devastating loss, having an extra day to recover (they've had two day's rest since that game) may prove to be a good thing. In addition to the fact that I feel the Grizzlies will be the more "desperate" team, the injury to LA's Caron Butler should really be mentioned. Without Butler in there, I expect Rudy Gay to have some favorable matchups, regardless of how Del Negro decides to play it. Memphis point guard Mike Conley had this to say of his team: ''This group is very mentally tough. We've had to handle adversity all year long with injuries and guys being in and out of the lineup. This is just another test for us, another obstacle we have to overcome. I think we'll do it..." I agree with Conley. I think they'll do it too. More importantly, I expect them to also cover the medium-sized number. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. As you're likely aware, Game 1 of this series was a thriller. The Mavericks almost the entire way only to be beaten by a Kevin Durant jumped with 1.5 seconds left. As that resulted in an easy cover for Dallas, many will be likely to back the defending champs here. I've had success over the years taking a different approach to these games. For starters, note that we're getting a lower line to work with on the Thunder here than was available for Game 1. Next and perhaps most importantly, I feel the Thunder will be the more focused team. The Mavs had their chance to steal Game 1 and they couldn't take advantage of the opportunity. The Mavs even made 10 3-pointers, hitting better than 45% from beyond the arc - and still coulnd't do it. While they're a veteran team, losing at the buzzer tends to cause some players to be in "what if" mode, which in turn can make re-focusing more difficult. On the other hand, the Thunder have "had their wake-up call." They also have some really positive momentum after their leader hit the game-winner in such dramatic fashion. I also feel the Thunder are the superior squad. The Mavs are still the champs (for a little while longer) and have some great and experienced players. They're not the same team as last year though - while the Thunder are only getting stronger. They're 27-7 at home. The Mavs are 13-21 away from Dallas. Now playing their fourth straight home game, note that the Thunder are an outstanding 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played their previous three at home. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. As you likely know, the Pacers lost the first game of this series. I do NOT expect a repeat performance this evening and am not willing to write Indiana off yet. As Danny Granger noted: "We lost a game. We watched it. It's not the end of the world. It's a seven-game series. We don't want to overreact.'' Granger's coach, Frank Vogel had similar comments: ''It's not in my nature to panic. It's not in this team's nature to panic. The answers are clear. Our deficiencies last night are very fixable. Things we've done all year. We're still a very confident bunch.'' Vogel continued: "We didn't make some shots we normally make. We didn't make free throws like we normally make them. But we just didn't share the basketball like we've done all year to get us the record that we have. We're very dialed into what we need to do. We feel good ... " While the Pacers are in desperation mode, the Magic may well be somewhat "content" with having already earned a road win. The Pacers are a commanding 11-2 SU the last 13 times that they were off an "upset" loss. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Clippers are in the playoffs. That's a big accomplishment in itself. They're up against a formidable opponent though. Playing at a very difficult venue, I expect them to stumble this evening. These teams met three times this season. Each game saw was won by the home team. In each case, the home team also covered the spread. The Grizzlies won the lone meeting here at Memphis by nine points. It could have easily been more lopsided. The Grizzlies hit 50% of their shots while holding the Clippers to a mere 40.5% from the field. Including the victory on 4/9, the Grizzlies have won 21 of 30 as a host in this series, including four of the last five. That comes as no surprise, given the way that the Grizzlies play here. They were 26-7 here on the season, including a perfect 11-0 mark to close out the season. While the Grizzlies enter on a winning streak, the Clippers have lost three of four, the lone win coming vs. New Orleans. They were 16-17 on the road. That includes a 4-8 SU and 4-7-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Grizzlies, who allowed just 76 points their last game, tend to be at their best when playing sound defense. They're 10-2-1 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 85 or less. The Grizzlies' defense figures to frustrate the still relatively inexperienced Clippers. Memphis averages 9.5 steals per game at home (best in the league) and also blocks more than five shots per game here. As LA guard Randy Foye noted: ''They try to muck everything up. They try to make everything chaotic. They try and pressure you and make you do things you don't want to do." This is all new for many of the Clippers. The Grizzlies have been here before. They know the importance of taking care of business on their home floor and I expect them to do just that here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Knicks actually enter this game as the hotter team. Miami has been in cruise control mode though and playing at far less than full strength. The Heat should have their full lineup back in tact here, at least the "Big 3." I feel they're the stronger team and also that they've got a statement to make here. As you likely remember, the Heat stumbled against Dallas in the finals last season. They're on a mission this season and I expect them to remind everyone of that this afternoon. While the Heat expect and hope to have both Bosh and Wade back in the lineup, this team has had plenty of time to become familiar with each other. Having them return should only make them better and isn't likely to pose any chemistry problems. Perhaps as they're not as familiar with each other, the Knicks don't always seem to function as well as a unit though. Stars Stoudemire and Anthony in particular, haven't looked exactly in synch with each other in recent games. Keep in mind that Stoudemire has only played four games over the last month due to a back injury. Note that New York center Tyson Chandler reportedly couldn't practice Friday due to the flu. As of this writing, Mike Woodson says there is a "strong possibility" that Chandler won't play in Game 1 because of the flu. Chandler has arguably been NY's MVP this season and is a candidate for defensive player of the year. If he can't play or isn't 100%, I feel it will prove to be a real blow. Personally, I won't be surprised if he plays. However, as I said, even if he's less than 100%, it can hurt. Of course, playing in Miami also figures to be a big boost for the Heat - and they know they can't squander homecourt advantage by getting upset in the first game. While the Knicks have been outscored on the road this season, the Heat are outscoring opponents by an average score of 100.4 to 89.5 on this floor this season. The Heat dominated the regular season series. They're were 3-0 SU/ATS against the Knicks and both games here at Miami resulted in double-digit victories. I expect another convincing victory here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. If things had gone differently, this could have been a very big game. That's not the case though, as the 76ers have clinched a playoff spot while the Bucks have now officially been eliminated. In situations like this, it can sometimes be a little tricky to judge the motivation levels of the teams involved. That said, in this particular case, I expect Milwaukee to be the more "hungry" team. True, the 76ers are still alive for the 7th spot. (They'd need to win both remaining games have NY lose one.) However, that would only mean playing Miami instead of Chicago. Given that they were 0-4 against Miami, including two losses of 20 or more points, they may actually prefer to finish in 8th to face the Bulls. (They were 1-2 against Chicago. They beat the Bulls by 16 once and both losses came by single-digits.) Having now clinched a playoff spot, don't be surprised if the 76ers give Andre Iguodala (already listed as out) and Elton Brand the day off here. In fact, Coach Collins indicated he was also "leaning towards resting Lou Williams." Whoever is in the lineup, don't be surprised if the 76ers experience a bit of a letdown here. Collins was quoted as saying: "...I am so proud of my guys. I really, really am. They answered the bell and when I looked up there with one minute to go and I knew we were going to be in the playoffs, it was a very satisfying feeling.'' Elton Brand added: "Now we can breathe a little easier. We could have beaten Milwaukee at Milwaukee, but why when you don't have to.'' Brand's comments very likely didn't sit too well with the Bucks - who should be motivated to prove that they could/would have beaten the 76'ers, had this game meant something. While its possible they'll be without Monta Ellis, the Bucks should have other reasons to be motivated too. If they win both remaining games, they'll finish at .500. That would allow them to avoid their seventh losing season in eight years. Additionally, this is the Bucks' home finale. So, they should want to at least give their fans a final victory. The Bucks are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were a host in this series. In fact, they're an extremely profitable 37-11-2 ATS their last 50 games against teams from the Atlantic Division. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Admittedly, the Grizzlies haven't been blowing out too many teams lately. Even Memphis coach Lionel Hollins noted as much. He was quoted as saying: "We had a stretch where played a lot of good teams -- Oklahoma City, Dallas twice, at Miami, the Clippers here at home -- and those are the kind of games the guys get up for. Then after that, we've been in a stretch against a bunch of teams that aren't in the playoffs. We haven't been as focused to go out and dominate them, but we've won the games." While they're again facing a non-playoff team, I believe that the Grizzlies will be focused to "go out and dominate" this one. Each of the Grizzlies' last two home games came after the Grizzlies had played the previous day. That's not the case here though, as it will be Cleveland which is playing the second of back-to-back games. While the Grizzlies had yesterday off, the Cavaliers played (lost by 16) at San Antonio. Note that the Grizzlies are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game, after having had the previous day off. Meanwhile, note that the Cavs are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they played the second of b2b games, losing by 16 each time. Going back further finds them at 5-8 ATS (2-11 SU) the last 13 times that they played the second of b2b games. Overall the Cavs are 10-21 on the road while the Grizzlies are 24-7 at home. Currently in 5th in the West, the Grizzlies know they need to win here to keep their hopes (of having homecourt advantage in the first round) alive. They're 5-1 SU/ATS against teams from the Central and 10-5-1 ATS (13-3 SU) against teams from the East overall. Knowing they could really use a one-sided win, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks are obviously very disappointed with last night's effort, an outright loss at Washington. I feel they may have been caught looking past the Wizards to tonight's game though. That was costly, as they badly could have used that win. As Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles noted after last night's loss: "Wrong time to have a bad game. It's an absolute must-win for us. We have to find a way to get that game." That should have the Bucks desperate for a victory tonight, to make up for last night's setback. While beating the surging Pacers, at Indiana, won't be easy. The Bucks know that if they could find a way to do so, hat they've got a couple of winnable games on deck - followed by a showdown vs. Philadelphia. Needless to say, a win here would be huge for them. This will be the third time that the Bucks will have faced the Pacers. Both previous meetings were at Milwaukee. Each time, the Bucks had the misfortune of having played the night before, which is the case again tonight. This is quite a different back-to-back spot though. When the Bucks faced the Pacers on 3/24, not only were they playing the second of back-to-back games, they were also playing their third game in three days and their fourth game in five days. When the Bucks faced the Pacers on 4/13, they were playing their third game in four days. Tonight's back-to-back spot is different though. That's because prior to last night's game, the Bucks had three days off, the longest break they'll have until their finished the season. The point that I'm trying to make is that this isn't as bad a b2b spot as either of the previous ones. While they've admittedly been red hot of late, winning as an underdog last time out, the Pacers are still just 17-22 ATS when laying points. They're also only 5-7 ATS when off an "upset" win. While they've had some trouble as a host in the series, the Bucks are actually a profitable 5-1-1 the last seven times that they played here at Indiana, 4-0-1 ATS the last five. A closer look reveals that the last four meetings here have ALL been decided by four or fewer points. They had margins of just 1, 4, 2 and 3 points. I feel this one could easily come down to the wire once again and am grabbing the points with what I expect will be an extremely hungry Milwaukee team. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Pacers were better than the 76ers last night. Indiana hammered Minnesota. Philadelphia lost at Orlando. I expect the 76ers to have the advantage tonight though. As noted, both teams played last night. However, the schedule is a little easier for the 76ers. Prior to last night's game, they'd had two days off, having last played on the 13th. On the other hand, the Pacers played on the 13th AND the 14th. True, last night's game was such a blowout that the starters were able to get some rest and didn't see that many minutes. However, Indiana will still be playing its fourth game in the past five days here while Philadelphia will only be playing its third game in the past five. The Pacers are looking to lock up the third seed. However, this game is arguably more important for the 76ers, as they are fighting just to make it to the playoffs. A look at the season series shows that the home team has won both games. The Pacers won 111-94 when they hosted the 76ers. However, the 76ers won 96-86 when the teams met here at Philadelphia. It should be noted that these teams will face each other again at Indiana in a few days. Knowing that and knowing this is their home finale (they play their final five on the road) I expect the 76ers to come through with their best effort, closing out the season here with a win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. As you probably know, these teams faced each other last night. Playing at home, the Nuggets won by a score of 101-86. Tonight's rematch is in Houston though and I expect the revenge-minded Rockets to bounce back with a badly needed victory. Keep in mind that the Nuggets are 14-15 on the road. The Rockets are 20-10 at home. Even Denver coach George Karl acknowledged that we should see a different Houston team tonight. After last night's win he was quoted as saying: ''They're going to play with an anger and an urgency that their season is in trouble in they lose tomorrow..." The Rockets actually had a lead going into the second half last night but were burned by turnovers and Denver fast break points in the second half. I expect them to have learned their lesson, in that regard. Chase Budinger was quoted as saying: "We just need to get back. This was a good learning lesson for us just because they got so many fastbreak points on us. Coming into Monday, we're going to play them again, just knowing how fast they like to play how quick they get the ball up, our ones, twos and threes have to get back and stop their transition because that's where they really killed us Sunday.'' The Rockets are already 2-0 this month, when playing the second of back-to-back games. They won outright at Chicago on 4/2 and did it again, at Portland, on 4/9. The Nuggets have only played the second of back-to-back games once in April. They lost by 15, at Golden State, on 4/7. Expect homecourt to be the difference as the Rockets bounce back, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Admittedly, the Bobcats aren't much of a team. That said, this is an excellent spot for them and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Charlotte had yesterday off. Boston has been pretty good lately. The Celtics are also old and banged-up though. That makes this very difficult scheduling situation even more difficult. The Celtics won at New Jersey yesterday. The previous day, they lost at Toronto. With a division game against New York on deck, it may well be difficult to focus on lowly Charlotte. Keep in mind that the Celtics are playing their third game in three days. Going back further finds that this is their fifth game in the past six days and their seventh game in the past nine days. Since 4/4, they've played nine games. Despite that brutal schedule, the Celtics are still being asked to lay a very large number. Note that they're only 6-11 ATS the past 17 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Bobcats are 13-7 ATS the last 20 meetings in this series. Five straight meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or less and those games were decided by an average or less than six points. The Bobcats even won two of them outright. I expect the Bobcats to step up and to give their road-weary guests all they can handle once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is a very big game for both teams. I expect the home team to have the advantage though. After a very successful (4-0) road trip, which included wins at Chicago and LA, the Rockets returned home only to stumble against Utah. That makes this game more critical than ever for them. Kyle Lowry noted: "We had a great road trip and had a little bit of a letdown but we will bounce back.." One could argue that the Suns need this game more, as they're further behind in the standings. However, I really don't feel the Suns actually believe - they'd written off the playoffs long ago and their remaining schedule is very tough. I do feel that the Rockets feel they can do it. Of course, the Suns aren't going to admit to that - and I'm not saying that they're going to go down without a fight. Just that this game is no more important to them than it is to Houston. Even with the loss vs. Utah, their second straight setback here, the Rockets are still 20-9 at home. On the other hand, the Suns are only 13-17 on the road. Note that Houston hasn't lost three straight at home in more than a year. Given the home/road records, its no surprise that the Rockets lost badly at Phoenix but hammered the Suns here at Houston. I expect another victory for the Rockets here, as they bounce back and cover the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its payback time on primetime. The Knicks managed to eke out an OT win over the Bulls on Sunday. However, that was at MSG and it took Carmello's best game since coming to New York. With tonight's game shifting to Chicago, I expect a much different result. The Knicks are 10-17 on the road. The Bulls are 22-6 at home. The Bulls are a perfect 11-0 SU when off an "upset" loss, going a profitable 8-3 ATS in those game. They're also an impressive 52-36-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with revenge from an earlier loss. That includes a 7-4 ATS mark their last 11 in that situation. After the last loss, Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau noted: "We should be able to overcome all of that stuff. You just have to do the right things. We do the right things, you're not going to have those problems. You're not going to have those turnovers. Simple plays: Protect the ball, keep the ball moving, quick decisions, hit the first open man, sustain your spacing, protect the ball, tuck it on the catch, fight for your space, get your space. Simple." Derrick Rose returned last time out, giving Thibodeau his full regular starting lineup for just the 11th time out. With a game under his belt and now motivated by being outplayed by Carmello, I won't be surprised if we see a big game from Rose. When asked about his groin injury and about the loss at MSG, Rose was quoted as saying: "I didn't think of my groin. I'm not worried about it. My thing is just trying to get better. Defensively, we weren't there. Hopefully next time we play them we come out with a sense of urgency." With the Knicks still missing Stoudemire (and Lin) I expect the stronger, more complete and revenge-minded Bulls to "come out with a sense of urgency" and for that to result in a one-sided victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. This is a bigtime revenge situation for the Heat as they were thrashed 91-72 in Boston last week. Note that the Heat returned home to win three of its next four here, where they hold a league best 24-3 mark. Note that Miami is outscoring teams by a commanding 101.5 to 90.3 margin here. The Heat make 48.2% of their shots here. Opposing teams make just 42.4% of theirs. While the Heat are only 7-6 ATS (9-4 SU) when playing with revenge, avenging a loss against the hated Celtics is a different matter. I expect an extremely motivated effort. LeBron James noted: "We'll be better prepared. They beat us. They dominated us in that game. But we'll be better prepared." While they've admittedly played well of late and while did follow up a big win at Indiana with another big win vs. Philly, the Celtics are typically not strong, when off a big victory. In fact, they're a terrible 26-51 ATS the last 77 times that they were off a double-digit win. The Celtics are also 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. The Heat, on the other hand, are 5-3 ATS (7-1 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I expect Lebron and co. to be "better prepared" this time around, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. I avoided the Blazers in their last game, thankfully, as I didn't trust them on the road off their big win at Dallas the previous night. I've successfully played on the Blazers more than once recently. I backed them when they beat Dallas outright on 4/6 and I also had them when they hammered the Nets by 13 on 4/4. I believe this will prove to be another good spot for them to earn a big win. While the Blazers had last night off, this time its the Rockets who come in off a road win the previous night - they won at Sacramento late last night. They're playing the final leg of a road trip here while also having had to travel over the Easter weekend. Having already achieved more success than even they probably could have though possible (they're 3-0 including wins at Chicago and LA) I feel they'll be ripe for a letdown here. That should not be the case for the revenge-minded Blazers. Houston has already beaten them twice this season and they should be out for some payback. While the Rockets are 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the Blazers are 5-3 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Considering that the Blazers were laying -8 when these teams faced each other here in February, given the scheduling situation, I feel tonight's much lower line is providing excellent value. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. These teams just met yesterday, at San Antonio. The Spurs won that one by 10, 114-104. Tonight's rematch is in Utah though, a significant different story. While the Spurs have a far superior home record, the Jazz actually have a much better record here at Salt Lake City than the Spurs do on the road. The Jazz are 20-8 at home. The Spurs are 17-10 on the road. Popovich and the Spurs continue to rest players and its fully possible (if not likely) that at least one of the regulars will be out again here. Popovich often doesn't even tell the players who will play and who will sit until close to tipoff, prompting Parker to note: "We all have to be ready." The Jazz should be hungry here and they should believe that they can get the victory. As center Al Jefferson noted: "Our fans are going to be ready to help us out but the second half proved that we can play with these guys ..." While they lost the earlier meeting here - it was close the entire way. San Antonio led by three at halftime and eventually won by four. Tonight, I expect the revenge-minded Jazz to put it all together, improving to 4-0 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Obviously, the Hawks have been much better than the Bobcats this season. They won again last night while the Bobcats lost again last night. I feel this number will prove to be too high though, as I'm expecting the Bobcats to be the more motivated squad. As noted, the Bobcats lost last night. However, they only lost by five and that was on the road, at Milwaukee. They've now quietly covered three of the last four. As noted, the Hawks won last night. However, they only won by five at home vs. Detroit, failing to cover as large favorites. The Hawks haven't shown an ability of late to blow teams out, when they were playing the second of back-to-back games. They're just 5-5 the last 10 times that they played the second of b2b games and NONE of the five victories have come by greater than seven points. In addition to the fact that they rarely seem to "win big" when the playing the second of back to back games, I feel the Hawks could easily get caught overlooking the Bobcats in this spot. They've been winning, so are feeling good about themselves. They also just blew out these same Bobcats and have won all three season meetings. Additionally, they get a rare 3-day break after this, before facing Boston on the 11th. Don't be surprised if they're minds are already partly back home celebrating Easter with their families. On the other hand, the Bobcats should be somewhat hungry, as they were embarrassed in the 4/4 game at Atlanta, the second straight time that the Hawks have blown them out. Those games were both at Atlanta though - and the game here was decided by just six points. That game wasn't really all that long ago (1/6/2012) but the line was only Atlanta -1.5. Now, the Hawks are laying 6x as many points! While they didn't cover the +1.5 in the earlier meeting, Charlotte is still an impressive 11-4 SU/ATS the last 15 times that it was a host in this series. Only once in those 15 games did the Hawks win by greater than 10 points. All things considered, we're excellent value with the revenge-minded home dog. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. I feel the Blazers have started to turn the corner of late and I successfully backed them in last game. They won by double-digits. They're now 3-1 ATS their last four games. Their last road game resulted in a 1-point loss at LA. Since the coaching change, their four game have come at LA vs the Clippers, at LA vs. the Lakers, at Oklahoma City and at Chicago. None of those are easy venues, obviously. Yet, only the loss at OKC got out of hand and they even won outright at Chicago. Given the Mavericks struggles when playing the front end of a back-to-back set, I feel the Blazers have an excellent shot at another upset here. Many handicappers focus only on how teams do when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is certainly important. However, it can also be valuable to pay attention to how teams do, when playing the front end of back-to-back games. Dallas is a team which has NOT performed well in this situation. Indeed, the champs are a terrible 2-10 ATS the last 12 times that they played the front end of b2b games, including a dismal 1-7 ATS (0-8 SU!) record the last eight times that they were in that situation. This season's earlier meeting between these teams was here and was only decided by three points. With Memphis, a team the Mavs just played on deck tomorrow, don't be surprised if Dallas has its hands full the entire way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. With or without Derrick Rose in the lineup, I expect the Bulls, 21-6 at home, to take care of business tonight. The Celtics are 11-14 on the road and they're off an extremely hard-fought loss vs. the Spurs last night. Trailing by as many as 17, the Celtics battled all the way back. However, they still lost by a single point. Those type of losses can be difficult to bounce back from, and that figures to be particularly true for a Boston squad which has really struggled when playing a road game, after having played the previous night. Chicago coach Thibodeau had this to say about his club: "Right now I'm disappointed in the way our team is playing. One thing I know about this league is that things change quickly.

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Despite having lost vs. Utah here on Monday, the Blazers, who had yesterday off, have been playing better since the coaching change. They could use a "blowout" win to really seal the deal and to give the team its swagger back. This one sets up well for that. The Nets are off a late hard fought loss at LA last night. They're now playing the final game of a West Coast road trip. Having already achieved some success on this trip and having already left it all on the floor last night, I feel they'll be ripe for going through the motions here. The Blazers' loss against Utah came when they were the team playing the second of b2b games. Prior to that, they'd won by double-digits, their second straight cover. Note that the Blazers are 9-3 SU/ATS the last dozen times that they were off an upset loss. While they did manage a cover at LA last night, the Nets are still an ugly 10-17-2 ATS (5-24 SU) the last 29 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. During the same stretch, the Blazers were 16-11 ATS (21-6 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Blazers are 12-2 the last 14 times that they were host in this series. With the schedule and situation in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Yesterday, I successfully played on Memphis. Playing at Oklahoma City, the underdog Grizzlies won outright. In my analysis of that game, I cited reasons why I felt that the Thunder were in a difficult scheduling spot and why I felt that the Grizzlies would be more focused and/or motivated. Tonight, however, the shoe is on the other foot. This time, its the Grizzlies who are the home favorites, laying the same number of points that they were getting yesterday. This time, its the Grizzlies who are off a big win, while their opponent had the day off. Yesterday, it was the Grizzlies who were playing with "triple revenge." This time, its the Warriors who are doing so. Yesterday, I noted that although the Grizzlies had lost all three season meetings with the Thunder but that those games had been close, decided by an average of only five points. Once again, the shoe is on the other foot tonight. This time, its the Warriors who are playing with "triple-revenge," as Memphis has beaten them all three times. Also, as was the case in the Thunder/Grizzlies situation last night, the games in this series have been close. In fact two of three meetings, including the one here at Memphis, have been decided by a single point. Lastly, it should be noted that this is worse than a typical back-to-back situation for Memphis. For starters, a win at Oklahoma City is rare - and could make them ripe for a letdown. Additionally, this will also be the Grizzlies fourth game in the past five days AND they'll also be playing again tomorrow night, a big game against the defending champion Mavericks.That's followed by a showdown vs. the Heat. So, just as it was easy for OKC to overlook Memphis last night, it may well be easy for the Grizzlies to overlook the Warriors here. Including the earlier cover here, the Warriors are 15-9 ATS on the road. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. In another game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Nuggets are off a victory. The Magic are off consecutive losses. However, I look for the Magic to be the team which emerges victorious (both SU and ATS) here. The Nuggets' recent victory came at Charlotte. At 7-43, the Bobcats have by far the worst record in the league. So, Denver's win needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Even with that victory, Denver is still just 4-10 ATS its last 14 games. Note that Denver missed 15 of 17 from 3-point range and had 25 turnovers against the Bobcats. That type of effort won't get it done here. The Magic have been facing tougher competition recently. Their two losses came against the surging Knicks (at MSG) and then against Dallas, the defending champs. They're still a solid 7-5 ATS their last dozen games though. While the Nuggets are now 13-12 away from Denver, the Magic are 18-9 here at Orlando. True, Denver does score more points than Orlando. However, the Magic are much better defensively. Orlando allows 92.3 points per game, 91.4 at home. Denver allows 102 points per game, 103.4 on the road. That's significant as the Magic tend to dominate "defensively-challenged" teams. In fact, they're a commanding 64-18 SU (46-34-2 ATS) the past few seasons, against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. That includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark their last two against such teams, 6-1 on the season. Speaking of "domination," the Magic are also 20-3 as a host in this series. That includes a 15-1 SU and 11-3-2 ATS mark the last 16 meetings here. The Magic haven't lost three in a row since January. The last time that they lost two in a row, they responded with a double-digit victory over Phoenix. On the other hand, the Nuggets are 0-6 the last six times they were off a victory. The Magic are healthier and I expect them to also be "hungrier." They're 7-4 SU/ATS when off an "upset" loss and 8-2 ATS (9-1 SU) the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Bucks in their last game. That was a home game though and they were only laying -2 points. Now, they're playing on the road and laying more than twice that many. I feel that's providing us with outstanding value on what should be a highly motivated Cleveland squad. The Cavaliers have certainly struggled of late - a big part of the reason for the large number. They should be desperate to snap their skid tonight though. Added motivation stems from the fact that they're playing with "double-revenge," having lost both of this season's meetings with the Bucks. Note that the game here was decided by a single point, a 113-112 Milwaukee victory in February. Now, a little over six weeks later, the Bucks find themselves laying a much larger number. True, the Bucks have had the past couple of days off. However, note that they're only 2-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's off in between games. Also, note that they're 0-2 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Both losses came outright, too. On the other hand, the Cavs are 4-2 ATS when listed as a home underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Bucks have been strong at home for years, they're only 11-16 on the road. They're getting outscored by a 96.8 to 95.5 margin in those games. They're just 43-70 on the road the past 2+ seasons. They'll be fortunate to win this game. Asking them to cover this many points is asking too much. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on LA. Its true that the Thunder are a very good team and that they have a superior overall record. However, its also true that the Lakers' home record (20-4) remains significantly superior to Oklahoma City's 16-8 mark on the road. That said, I feel the Lakers are providing us with excellent value here. The Lakers are outscoring opponents by a 97.5 to 89.1 margin here at LA this season. The Lakers hit 47.4% of their shots at home while holding opposing teams to only 41.3% of theirs. Meanwhile, the Thunder are outscoring opponents by a far less significant margin on the road, 99.7 to 99.2. They shoot 45.4% on the road while opposing teams shoot 43.6%. Going back further finds OKC at 67-50 on the road the past 2+ seasons while the Lakers are 97-26 at home. The Thunder pounded the Lakers on 2/23, this season's lone meeting. However, that was at OKC. Note that the Lakers are 50-24 the last few seasons when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, 10-6 their last 16 in that situation. The Thunder did defeat the Lakers here once last spring. However, that was the first time that the Thunder had ever won here (since moving from Seattle to OKC) and the Lakers are still a commanding 11-1 the last 12 series meetings here. The Thunder are off a big 109-95 win at Portland on Tuesday. However, note that they're a dismal 5-12 ATS (9-8 SU) when off a game in which they score 105 or more points. While the Lakers haven't been very good at the betting window of late, unlike their usual home games, they don't need to cover a large number here. Ultimately, I look for the homecourt to be the difference as the revenge-minded Lakers remind the Thunder and the rest of the league, that they're still a force to be reckoned with. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Bobcats have both the venue and the schedule in their favor. Yet, they're still getting a solid handful of points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The T-Wolves lost at Memphis last night. This will be the 10th different city they played in over their last 10 games - 9 road games and one at home. After playing all those big road games against Western Conference opponents - and with former player Kevin Garnett and the Celtics on deck, I feel it will be easy to get caught looking past lowly Charlotte. Note that in addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the T-Wolves will be playing their ninth game since March 15th. On the other hand, the Bobcats had yesterday off and will be playing just their seventh game, during the same period. While its easy to pick on the Bobcats, keep in mind that the T-Wolves are a dismal 6-12 ATS when laying points, 0-1 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Additionally, they're only 4-12 SU when playing the second of b2b games. The Bobcats, who play with revenge from a February loss at Minnesota, are 6-1 the last seven times that they were a host in this series. The lone loss came by six points. In fact, four of seven meetings here have been decided by six or less. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. While they didn't cover the spread last time out, the Blazers did erase a 7-point halftime deficit to earn the SU victory. Clearly, they've been playing better since the coaching change. I expect them to be at their best again tonight. The Blazers have now won back-to-back home games. As they're catching a small handful of points here, note that each of those game was decided by four or fewer points. Also, note that the Blazers are a lucrative 30-21-1 ATS the past 52 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Blazers went into Chicago and beat the Bulls by double-digits in their first game after the coaching change. The next game came vs. these same Thunder, at Oklahoma City. Off the big win at Chicago, the coaching change and emotion caught up with the Blazers in that one and they were blown out. They've had plenty of time to adjust to the change now though and are getting to face the Thunder here in the Pacific Northwest instead. Big difference. Not only are the Blazers much better at home but they're also 7-3 the last 10 times that they were a host in this series. A closer look reveals that two of those losses came by four points or less, too. In other words, they'd be 9-1 ATS if getting +4.5 or better in all those games. Obviously, the Thunder are a very good team. However, this is a tough spot for them. They're off a big win vs. Miami and they've got the Lakers on deck, followed by the Bulls. With all those top-tier opponents in their heads, it may be hard to fully focus on the task at hand here. Note that the Thunder are only 6-12 ATS the last 18 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, 1-3 ATS their last four in that role. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The fact that the Hawks had last night off, while the Bucks played last night, is working in our favor here, as the line could easily be higher. I believe that's providing us with strong value on what should be a highly motivated Milwaukee squad. The Bucks are off a loss at New York last night and this is indeed a bit of a tough scheduling spot. However, they do get the next two day's off - and their next five games come against Cleveland, Memphis, Washington, Cleveland and Charlotte. Only Memphis is a playoff team out of that group - and the Grizzlies are from the opposite conference. In other words, this is arguably the "biggest" game that the Bucks will play for awhile. Knowing they have the next two day's off to "recover," I expect the "revenge-minded" Bucks to go all out for the win here. As noted, the Hawks had yesterday off. However, they'd also played a game that went to FOUR OT periods the previous day. So, they may still be a little tired from that marathon. Plus, unlike Milwaukee, the Hawks play tomorrow night. They'll be facing Chicago, too. Not only are the Bulls the top team in the league, they also beat the Hawks in the most recent meeting. More importantly, they were the team which knocked the Hawks out of the playoffs last season, a hard-fought 6-game series. So, unlike Milwaukee, Atlanta could easily get caught looking ahead. The Bucks are playing with "double-revenge," as Atlanta has beaten them in both meetings this season. The Bucks are still 13-7 the last 20 times that they were a host in the series though. With an O/U line in the high 190s, note that the Bucks are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Celtics are off a solid win yesterday. However, they've been terrible when playing a road game, after having played the previous day. Regulars know that we've successfully played against them several times in this situation. In fact, we just played against Boston in that situation a few days ago, at Philadelphia. The Celtics lost by 13. That was a tough scheduling spot and so is this one. The game at Philadelphia marked the end of an 8-game road trip for the Celtics. After enjoying Saturday off, playing in front of the home fans for the first time in more than two weeks, they disposed of Washington. They're right back on the road again here though, again playing their fourth game in five days. To boot, they're dealing with some injury issues AND being asked to lay a large number. Given the situation, I believe that's asking too much. The Bobcats, who had yesterday off, have played the Celtics tough. I played on the Bobcats the last time that they were a host in this series (10* Best Best on 2/7/2011) and they won outright. Including that victory and a cover at Boston last month and the Bobcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four in this series. Going back further finds Charlotte at a profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20 meetings with Boston. I expect those stats to get even better here. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the visitors. True, the Grizzlies played yesterday. However, that was an afternoon game and it was right here at LA. So, there was no travel involved and the Grizzlies have had plenty of time off since that one finished. Also, note that its the first time that Memphis has played back-to-back games since 3/10 and 3/11. So, its been two weeks since they played b2b games (they won outright as a +6 point underdog in that one) which means that its not nearly as grueling as some b2b spots can be. Plus, the Grizzlies are 8-3 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. So, its not a spot that they have trouble in. Going back further finds them at 33-18-1 ATS the past few seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games. While the Grizzlies are 15-9 ATS on Sundays the past few seasons, the Lakers are only 21-30-1 ATS when doing so. Lately, it hasn't mattered what day the Lakers have played on. They're just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11. The Grizzlies play with recent "revenge," as the Lakers just beat them at Memphis less than two weeks ago. They're 63-47-1 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, 22-17-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss. That 3/13 game was decided by just five points, the third straight meeting in this series which was decided by single-digits. A closer look shows that there have been eight meetings between these teams since the start of 2010. The Lakers won ONLY ONE of those games by double-digits and four were decided by five or less. I could easily see this one also coming down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Many will look at the fact that the Blazers are off a loss and that they have now dropped 10 of 14. They'll then wonder how this team can be laying such a large number. However, I feel that they're favored by this much for good reason. A closer look shows that Portland has actually been much better since firing Nate McMillan. The Blazers beat the Bulls (at Chicago) by double-digits. They weren't that good in their next two games, losing vs. OKC and Milwaukee. However, they've gone 2-0 ATS in their last two games, beating Memphis and covering (but losing) vs. LA. I expect the Blazers to be highly motivated to bounce back with a better effort. After losing vs. the Lakers, a game the Blazers led early, JJ Hickson commented: "We have got to rebound. This is where the game was lost. We fought hard enough. That

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Mavericks are off a hard-fought physical 107-84 loss vs. division rival San Antonio. Having been blown out last night, many will likely assume that the champs will bounce back here. Easier said than done. While the Mavs are now a poor 9-14 SU and 11-12 ATS on the road, the Rockets are an excellent 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS at home. As noted, last night's game was a physical one. Terry, Marion, Kidd and Mahinmi ALL played more than 30 minutues. Meanwhile, Nowitzki saw 37 "physical" minutes of action. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle noted: "Everybody plays Dirk hard and physically..." Tim Duncan had this to say about newly signed Boris Diaw: "I thought he did a really good job on Dirk. He was physical with him. He contested every shot he took and made life difficult for him. I thought he was great tonight." The Mavs are only 8-8 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. Worse, they're an awful 11-21-1 ATS the past 33 times that they were off a double-digit loss, 4-6 SU/ATS in that role this season. The Rockets had yesterday off, after hammering Golden State by 26 on Thursday. They've quietly gone 14-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. With the schedule in their favor and knowing that they'll have to face these same Mavs in Dallas in a few days (in that one, the Rockets will be the team playing the second of b2b games) I expect the Rockets to take care of business on their home floor this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Off back-to-back wins and now with four victories in their last five, the Hawks have been playing fairly well recently. This is a very tough spot for them though and I expect them to stumble. Not only did the Hawks host New Jersey last night but they'll also be playing their 8th game in the past 12 days. Additionally, they've got a home game (Utah) on deck tomorrow. Put another way, the Hawks will be playing their 14th game in March while the Wizards will be playing their 12th. Throw in the fact that the Hawks were out on the West Coast a little more than a week ago and this is indeed a grueling stretch of their schedule. While they're already 0-2 against the Hawks this season, both those games were Atlanta. The last meeting here at Washington saw the underdog Wizards win by 32 points! The Wizards, who had yesterday off, are also quietly playing well. In fact, they're 3-0 ATS their last three games and 5-1 ATS their last six. The only time that they failed to cover during that stretch was against these same Hawks. That was at Atlanta though and that time it was the Wizards who were playing the second of b2b games, while the Hawks were coming off a day of rest. With the roles reversed, now its payback time. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I successfully played on the 76ers against these same Celtics earlier this month. That was a tough spot for Boston. The Celtics were off a game the previous night and were playing their sixth game in nine days. As they often do, when playing the second of back-to-back games, the Celtics struggled. In fact, they barely showed up. Philadelphia won by 32 points. While the Celtics would surely love to avenge that loss, note that they're only 10-13 ATS (11-12 SU) when in the revenge role. More importantly, they're also in another difficult scheduling spot. The Celts are are off a win at Milwaukee last night. They're now playing the final leg of an 8-game road trip which had them trekking all over the West Coast. Even with a recent win at Denver, which was the second of b2b games, the Celts are an awful 18-32 ATS the last 50 times that they played the second of b2b games, 4-9 ATS their last 13. The 76ers just came up short in a big game vs. the Knicks, This is their chance to get right back on the horse with a big win on ESPN. They've been excellent as home favorites in this range and I look for them to bounce back with an important win and cover here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. I'll admit that the Knicks have beaten me a couple of times since the coaching change now. Clearly, they've been playing much better since D'antoni's departure. I feel that they're getting a little over-valued now though and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way tonight. The Raptors did just get blown out at MSG, which should provide them with some added motivation here. With the Knicks laying a fairly good handful of points, note that prior to Tuesday's blowout, both the previous meetings were decided by five or fewer points. Also, note that the Knicks are a money-burning 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Raptors are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. NY road games are being decided by an average of 1-point, with the Knicks getting outscored 96.1 to 95.1. Toronto home games are also being decided by an average of only 1-point. The Raptors are getting outscored here by an average score of 93.6 to 92.6. The last game here was decided on a Lin 3-pointer at the buzzer. I feel this one could easily also come down to the wire and am happily grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks have certainly played well since the coaching change. However, this will be arguably their toughest test (since the change) and I expect them to come back down to earth. The Knicks will be playing the second of back to back games here, as they're off a win over the Raptors last night. That isn't the case for the 76ers, as they had last night off. To their credit, the Knicks did win at Indiana the last time that they played the second of back-to-back games. However, in that case, the Pacers were also involved in a back-to-back spot, as those same two teams had faced each other the previous night. Even with a victory in that game, NY is still only 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Going back further finds the Knicks at 19-35 in that situation the past few seasons. (Prior to the Indiana game, the previous four times that they played the second of back-to-back games, the Knicks lost by 5, 13, 14 and 8 points.) Off a rare 3-game losing streak, the 76ers got back on track with a 25-point win on Monday. Now they return home where they are 16-9. That's a whole lot better than NY's 8-14 mark on the road. The teams have split two meetings, both at MSG, this season. Philly won the last one, which puts NY in the "revenge" role. That doesn't typically provide the Knicks with much added incentive though. In fact, they're only 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. The Knicks are still a sub .500 teams and the 76ers are a commanding 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS against teams with a losing record. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. You may recall that these teams faced each other on Valentine's Day, at Toronto. At the time, Jeremy Lin was taking the league by storm. He ended up leading the Knicks back from a double-digit deficit, eventually hitting a 3-pointer to win the game at the buzzer. That wasn't the only close game between these teams this season. The other meeting saw the Raptors come here to New York and score a 5-point upset. With the Raptors playing more inspired basketball of late and with the Knicks in a potentially tough scheduling spot, I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. I successfully played against the Raptors last time out. That was largely due to the schedule and the pointspread though. The Raptors were coming off an OT game the previous night, were playing their fourth game in five days - and yet were laying points on the road. They fought hard but lost by four. The Raptors have had a much needed couple of days to recover from that grueling stretch. That should benefit them all. Not only does it allow everyone's legs to get some rest, it should allow point guard Jose Calderon time to return from injury. That means that the Raptors should have Calderon and Bargnani AND Bayless all playing together. Bargnani has several games under his belt since returning from injury while Bayless is suddenly playing the best basketball of his pro career. Bayless is averaging 21.8 points on 54.3% shooting over the past five games. While the Raptors are 2-2 their last four games, note that both losses came when they were playing the second of back to back games. They've quietly gone a profitable 14-7-2 ATS since the season hit the midway point. The Knicks also had the last two days off. However, after having won three straight, they may have preferred to keep playing. Either way, it should be noted that they play at Philadelphia tomorrow night. Not only are the 76ers a division rival, one which is on top of the Atlantic, but they were also the last team to beat the Knicks here at MSG, having done so by double-digits on 3/11. In other words, it may be easy to get caught looking past the lowly Raptors. The Knicks are only 8-14-1 ATS the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. That includes a 1-3-1 ATS mark their last five in that situation. I expect them to have their hands full once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Wrong place at the wrong time for the Wizards. The Grizzlies rarely lose back to back home games, which is the case here. Knowing they embark on a road trip after this, they know they can't afford to drop a game to the lowly Wizards. Unhappy with their performance against the Raptors on Friday, I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort here. Hosting the Wizards should help. For the season, the Wizards are 4-17 on the road. That includes a 2-5 ATS mark as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. The Grizzlies came up short on Friday. However, it was still good to get Zach Randolph back. Indeed, Randolph had 25 points and nine rebounds. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies haven't lost three in a row here at home since 2010. They're still 15-7 at home on the season. The Wizards, who recently shook up their team with a big trade, are playing the fifth game of a 6-game road trip. They're still trying to get everyone acquainted with each other. They're also 0-4 ATS after having played three or more consecutive games on the road. Additionally, they're only 7-13 ATS (3-17 SU) against teams with a winning record. The Grizzlies, who beat Washington by 14 here last season, are a perfect 8-0 SU against teams which allow 99 or more points per game (Washington allows 102) and they've gone 6-2 ATS in those games. I expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Raptors are in a very tough scheduling spot here. Last night, they played an exhausting game at Memphis. That one had "playoff like intensity" and went into OT. Not only are the Raptors playing the second of b2b games, they're also playing their fourth game in five days. That figures to make last night's OT game take that much more of a toll. The Bobcats already beat the Raptors last month, at Toronto. While the Raptors would surely love to avenge that loss, they're a dismal 18-32-3 ATS (13-40 SU!) the last 53 times that they played with revenge from an earlier home loss. The Bobcats, who had yesterday off, have shown some signs of coming around lately as they're 5-3 ATS their last eight, including a double-digit win over Orlando. I had them (as a *10 Best Bet) in that game and I'm backing them again here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Both these teams could desperately use a victory. The Blazers got blown out at Indiana last night and have now lost six of eight. Things are arguably even worse in New York though. Indeed, the Knicks have now lost six straight. Yet, despite that skid the Knicks, 8-14-1 ATS as favorites, find themselves laying a fairly big number here, one which climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the visitors. True, the Blazers are playing the second of back to back games, part of the reason we're getting such a generous line. However, that shouldn't be cause for concern. You may recall that we backed the Blazers the last time that they were playing the second of back to back games, a 110-99 winner on 3/10. Here's a small excerpt from that writeup. Note that the 3/10 winner is not included in those stats: "...The last time that the Blazers played a "road" game, after playing the previous night, they won outright as +5 point underdogs. The previous time that they in that situation, they covered as +4 point underdogs. Overall, they're 32-21-1 ATS (32-22 SU) the past few seasons, when playing the second of b2b games ..." Note that prior to last night's game, the Blazers had two day's off. So, its not a particularly grueling back-to-back spot. The Knicks have real issues. Lin is struggling and is not a good defender. Carmelo is unhappy and the D'Antoni's days are number. I feel they'll be very fortunate to win this game, let alone cover. The Blazers won here last season and I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, leading to at least another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Cavaliers last time out and I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. Off three straight wins, all against quality opponents, the Cavaliers are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. They received a fairly tough test from Houston last time out but still pulled away for a double-digit (118-107) victory. Prior to that, the Cavs won at Oklahoma City, where the Thunder practically never lose. Before that, they won at Denver. With those three victories, all of a sudden, the Cavs are thinking playoffs. The fact that the Knicks are in free-fall mode is only adding to the excitement. In fact, the Cavs are only 0.5 game behind the Knicks, who enter today's action tied with the Bucks for the final playoff spot. With both those teams off today, the Cavs can pull into a 3-way tie for Kyrie Irving, who scored 16 points final 4:14 against Houston said this of his team's play right now: "What I like most is just our ability to compete for 48 minutes, no matter what's going on in the game. They make their run, but we continue to get stops and continue to execute on the offensive end of the floor." Now, the Cavs take a significant step down in class to take on a Toronto team that is only 6-14 on the road. Yes, the Raptors have gotten Bargnani back. However, after missing so much time, he can't be expected to dominate immediately and will likely take some time to work his way into optimal playing shape. He's had just eight and 11 points in the two games since returning. Even his teammates acknowledge he's not playing his best yet. Bayless had this to say: "We know how good he is and I need him back, everybody needs him back, and when he gets back to the level that he was at we are going to be a very dangerous team ... " Perhaps, more importantly, note that the Raptors are expected to be without starting pointguard Jose Calderon. Even if he is available, he'll be playing on a gimpy ankle. Bayless is a capable backup. However, the team needs both of them healthy to be at its best. Off the three big wins, the fear might be that the Cavs will suffer a "letdown" here. However, I don't expect that to be the case. I've already noted that they're now suddenly in the thick of the playoff race. Obviously, a home game against Toronto is an opportunity for a victory which they shouldn't squander. Additionally, the Raptors have already beaten the Cavs twice this season, including once here on Opening Night, December 26th. The fact that they're playing with "double-revenge" should ensure we don't see any "letdown." While the Cavs average better than 95 points per game at home, the Raptors manage a mere 87 per game on the road. I expect a win and cover for the revenge-minded Cavs, as they improve to 7-3 ATS when facing a team which scores 91 or fewer points per game. *10