Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on OKC. This will mark the third meeting between these teams in just over a month. I successfully backed the Thunder when they hosted the Blazers on 2/5. Last week, on March 2nd, I successfully backed the Blazers, when they were the host. That brings the home team to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season series. With this evening's fourth and final meeting being played at OKC and with the schedule in their favor, I expect the Thunder to again "hold serve" at home. While the Thunder had last night off, the Blazers had to play a game at Minnesota. This will mark their third game in the past four days. The Thunder, who have dropped three straight starting with the loss at the Moda Center, are 3-0 SU/ATS since late November, when off three or more consecutive losses this season. The last time that they were in that situation they responded with a 14-point win against Memphis. Prior to that, they beat Denver by 15. Before that, they also beat the Nuggets, this time at Denver. Expect the Thunder to have the fresher legs and for them to bounce back, once again. UPDATE: Portland's game against Minnesota got postponed, after this play was written. While that means that the Blazers are no longer in a "back-to-back spot," it does not change this play. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Heat embarrassed the Cavs on Saturday. With the rematch being played Cleveland, expect the Cavs, who are back home off three straight on the road, to exact some serious revenge. Note that Cleveland is a lucrative 17-9-1 ATS (22-5 SU) its last 27, including 3-1 SU/ATS this season, after having played its previous three or more on the road. While the Heat are 13-20 on the road, the Cavs are 26-6 at home. The Heat lost their last road game (at Orlando) by double-digits and the Cavs won by 30 when the teams met here last. Payback time. *GOW

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 8* MAIN EVENT. Off three straight losses, the "Cousins-less" Kings aren't getting much respect. While the Jazz are a tough opponent, they aren't quite as intimidating away from Utah. They only outscore teams by an average of 2.5 points (100.6 to 98.1) on the road; I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Kings haven't played since the first day of March. The breakfigures to have come at a good time; the Kings had been struggling it'll have given them a chance to work on the new lineup. Note that they're 2-0-1 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest. They're also 8-2 ATS when off three or more consecutive losses, winning six of those outright. While the Kings are 8-4 ATS against teams from the Northwest, the Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS against teams from the Pacific. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by single-digits including each of the last two at Sacramento. The Kings actually won three of those five games outright. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Blazers in their last game. Off that Thursday win over OKC, the Blazers take a big step down in class to face a road-weary Brooklyn team. They know this a game that they can ill afford to squander. While the Blazers had last night off, the Nets fought hard but ultimately lost by double-digits at Utah. They're 0-10 SU when playing the second of b2b games this season. This will make the Nets' fifth straight road game and their third road game through the first four days of March. Note that they're now 0-5-1 ATS (0-6 SU) after playing their previous three on the road. The Blazers already beat the Nets by 20 at Brooklyn, a 129-109 blowout. Facing a Nets team which allows 116.7 ppg, the Blazers are going to put up a big number again here. I don't feel the Nets are going to have the necessary desire or energy to keep up. Look for the Blazers, 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the last 13 times that they faced a team which allows 106 or more points in the second half of the season, to run them out of the building. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10*. While I understand why Memphis, which has the far better overall record is favored, I could easily make a case for Dallas being the favorite. True, the Grizzlies hammered the Mavs when these teams met here back in November. However, at the time, Dallas was really struggling. That game came right in the middle of an 8-game losing streak and the Mavs which saw the Mavs start off with an 2-13 record. They're playing much better now though, having covered three straight. Their last two games here at Dallas resulted in a double-digit win over the Pelicans and a 7-point win over a previously red-hot Miami team. With a win tonight, the Mavs would/will have a better home record than the Grizzlies will have a road record. Already, they're outscoring teams by a 100 to 97.1 point margin here which is superior to the Grizzlies' stats on the road; they're getting outscored by a 103.7 to 103.6 margin in road games. The Grizzlies have had a couple of days off in between games. Thats not necessarily a positive for them though, as they're 1-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Note that they've got a big (divisional) showdown at Houston on deck tomorrow night. The Mavs, on the other hand, get tomorrow off. They're 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10*. The Magic have taken two of three meetings, each of the last two, against the Heat. This is a team which they match up well against and they're going to come in confident. They had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. The Heat, now just 13-19 on the road, have a game against former teammate Lebron James on deck tomorrow. If there's ever a game to look ahead to, that could be the one. Don't be surprised when the Magic score the upset. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10*. The Wizards just hammered the Raptors a couple of days ago, at Toronto. Playing with recent revenge, I expect a much better effort from the Raptors here. The Raptors, now 14-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, won by 10 when they played here earlier. They also won both meetings here last season. They're comfortable on this floor and I look for them to bounce back with at least a cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. I won with the Thunder when these teams met at OKC a few weeks ago. The Thunder were only laying -4.5 points for that 2/5 game and I felt that was a little low. However, just as OKC is much better on its home floor, the Blazers are a MUCH stronger team at the Moda Center. The Thunder are 23-8 at home but just 12-17 on the road. The Blazers are 10-22 on the road but 14-13 here at home. Not surprisingly, given those records, the Blazers won (114-95) when these teams met here back in December. In fact, the Blazers have won five straight meetings against the Thunder here. Those five victories came by an average of 10 points, too. While the Thunder play again tomorrow, the Blazers are rested and they also get tomorrow night off. Fully focused on the task at hand, look for the Blazers to continue their homecourt success in the series. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. The Bucks lost a close one, at Denver, a few weeks ago. At the time, it was their fifth straight loss. So, they weren't playing well at the time and they also had a game on deck, the next night. They'd go on to win that one (at Phoenix) before dropping their next two. Since then, they've won four of their last six, the only losses coming vs. Utah and at Cleveland. So, they're playing much better than they were for the 2/3 meeting. They're well-rested and they also don't have to worry about playing a game tomorrow, as they did for the earlier meeting. Of course, they're also a much better team at home than they are on the road. A win here will pull them back above the .500 mark at home. They're just 11-17 on the road. The Nuggets have similar home/road stats, as they too are much better in their home building. While the Bucks had Tuesday off, the Nuggets were busy battling Chicago. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, this will be their third game in four days and their fifth in the past seven. Look for it to catch up with them here, the Bucks taking advantage. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* GAME OF WEEK. Some of you will likely recall that I cashed a big play (GOW) on the Heat when these teams met at Miami, back on 1/19. I had a number of reasons why I played on the Heat, at the time, and stated that I expected them to "stay hot" and "go on a winning streak." At the time, the Heat hadn't won back-to-back games for ages and were seemingly already playing out the stretch. Things are different now though.

Including the 1/19 win over the Mavs, the Heat are an improbable and impressive 16-2 their last 18 games. Thats resulted in us getting far better value with the Mavs tonight, than we were last month. Keep in mind that the line for that game closed at "pick'em," despite it being played at Miami. The Mavs are a much better team at home than they are on the road though. They're still above 500 here, at 15-14. On the road, they're only 8-21. Its fair to say that the Mavs have been an entirely different team here. Off a double-digit win over the new-look Pelicans, they come in with some momentum, too. 

Even with their recent hot streak, the Heat are still a sub-500 team. They're still 13-18 on the road. While the Mavs outscore teams by a 100.1 to 97.4 average here at Dallas, the Heat get outscored by a 102.3 to 99.4 average margin, when playing on the road. That's with the Mavs playing in the tougher conference, too. While the Heat have certainly proven worthy of respect, I believe the value lies with the revenge-minded Mavs. Look for them to avenge last month's loss and improve to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing (SU) record. *GOW

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Kings got the post-Cousins era started with a victory. It remains to be seen what the long-term impact of Cousins' departure will be. Undoubtedly, he was extremely talented. The Kings weren't able to surround him with much though and still didn't win with him. Sometimes, a fresh start is best for all. Either way, however, this is a team still likely to struggle down the stretch. The Kings, already without Gay for the season, simply don't have much. This is a team that Charlotte can't afford to lose against. Not when the Kings already beat them last month. At the time, the Hornets were in the midst of a losing streak and off a hard fought loss against the Knicks the previous day. Cousins torched them for 35 points and 18 rebounds. This time, they're in the midst of another losing streak and off another hard-fought loss. However, this time, they had yesterday off and this time they won't have to contend with Cousins. Payback time. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Raptors have covered all three meetings with the Celtics this season, going 2-1 SU. That includes a 114-106 win in the game here at Toronto, a game they were laying -5 for. We're getting a considerably lower line to work with here, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. While the Celtics are 3-8 ATS in divisional games, the Raptors are 10-2 ATS. The Celtics are a solid 17-12 on the road. However, the Raptors are a superior 19-10 at home. Boston outscores teams by a modest 106.9 to 105.4 margin on the road. Toronto outscores teams by a 111.6 to a 103.1 margin at home. I expect homecourt to prove the difference, the Raptors continuing their success in the series and moving to 5-1 SU/ATS their last six as a host in this series. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Heat hammered the Hawks on the first day of February. That was when they were in the middle of their big winning streak. That streak is now over, however, and the Heat are now playing on the road. The Heat are 12-18 on the road. The Hawks are 16-11 at home. The Hawks won by eight when these teams played here earlier this season. They were laying -9 for that game. (They were laying -10.5 when they hosted the Heat last February, too.) While things have changed since then, I don't feel that they've changed enough to warrant such a dramatic line shift. Look for homecourt to be the difference, the Hawks avenging the this month's earlier loss, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* PERS FAV. While the 76ers have been improved of late, they're not playing at the level that the Celtics are right now. Not many teams are, as Boston has won 10 of its last 11. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS record in the Celtics' past three games. Playing their final home game before the break and first game back home in more than a week, I expect them to keep it rolling for another day. The 76ers have won three in a row for the third time. In the previous two instances, they were 0-2 SU/ATS in the following game. They lost those games by (16 and 17) 33 combined points. The Celtics average 109.7 ppg here and I don't expect the 76ers to be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The T-Wolves got back on track in a big way on Sunday, crushing Chicago by 28 points. That wire-to-wire blowout should provide them with some confidence. The Cavs, who are expected to be without Love and perhaps Shumpert, have a big divisional showdown vs. Indiana on deck tomorrow night. Having already just pounded these same T-Wolves on the first day of February, it could be easy to look past them tonight. While the Cavs actually get outscored by an 108.4 to 108 average margin on the road, the T-Wolves outscore teams by a 106.4 to 103.8 average margin here at Minnesota. I really liked what I saw from them on Sunday and I expect them to deliver (at least) another cover here. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10*. Off back-to-back losses, the Jazz figure to be an in an angry mood. This marks the third time in 2017 that they've lost back-to-back games. In both previous instances, they responded with a win and cover in their next game, snapping the skid before it reached three games. While the Clippers have started to win some games without Paul and are off back-to-back road wins, they're still a modest 16-13 on the road. They'll take on a Utah team which ranks as the stingiest in the entire league and which is 19-10 here at home. While the Clippers allow 109.3 ppg on the road, the Jazz allow just 94.1 ppg here at home. With the Jazz, who lost at LA earlier, at 69-41-3 ATS in the "revenge role," the past few seasons, I'm laying the points. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10*. The Bucks got back on track with an impressive win at Indiana on Friday. They'll have both the venue and the schedule in their favor here. While the Bucks had the day off, the Pistons are off a big game at Toronto yesterday. Now, they're playing their third game in the past four days. While the Pistons are well below .500 on the road, the Bucks can get back to .500 at home with a win. With the Pistons at 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine when playing the second of b2b games, most recently a 21-point loss at Indiana, I'm laying the small number with the home team.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10*. This is an absolute "must win" game for the Hornets. I expect them to respond accordingly. Mired in a losing streak and with a lengthy road game on deck, the Hornets simply can't afford to lose to the 76ers. True, the 76ers have been much improved. However, they're still a team which is 7-18 on the road. The Hornets, now 16-12 at home, are just thinking about winning right now. However, they also haven't forgotten that the 76ers beat them (at Philadelphia) last month. When the teams met here at Charlotte, earlier in the season, the Hornets won by 16. That marked the seventh straight time that Charlotte has beaten the 76ers here. They won those seven games by an average of 13 points. With their backs to the wall, I expect the Hornets to bounce back and continue their homecourt dominance in this series. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* MAIN EVENT. With all due respect to the Spurs, who are very good regardless of venue, this is a lot of points. Consider that the Cavs were laying only four points here just a week ago. (Cleveland won by 7.) Admittedly, the Spurs are more consistent than the Cavs, on the road. However, in this particular situation, I don't feel that they should be laying roughly twice as many points. 

With back-to-back difficult road games on deck, the Knicks could badly use a win here. While they're only 1-4 in February, only one of those five games resulted in a loss of greater than eight points. Note that they're 5-2 ATS off an upset loss.

The Knicks have the next two days off and can go "all out" here. The Spurs, on the other hand, are in the middle of a lengthy road trip and play at Indiana tomorrow. I've learned not to rely on Popovich resting any starters - and won't be relying on him doing so today - but you never know. Either way, I expect a hungry Knicks team. 

The last meeting between these teams was at San Antonio. The Spurs were laying double-digits but only won by a single point. Look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Knicks with a solid shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets desperately need a win. They'd just dropped all three games on a West Coast road trip. They badly need to do something with this 4-game stretch at home, which they're now 1-1 on. Thats due in part because they're back on the road the day after Valentine's, a trip which includes a visit to take on these same Clippers. Though the Clippers are still tough with Griffin and co, they're not the same team without Paul. While the Clippers are 3-8 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Hornets are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven as home favorites of three or less. LA gets outscored on the road, Charlotte outscores teams by an average of more than three points on this floor. I expect a highly motivated effort and a win/cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. With a victory here, the Bucks can climb back over the .500 mark, at home. Facing a Laker team which gets outscored by a 112.2 to 100.4 margin on the road should provide them the perfect opportunity. The Lakers are 8-40 SU and 19-28-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During that span the Bucks are 13-7-1 ATS (14-7 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Bucks, already 3-0 ATS against Pacific division teams and 10-6 ATS against the west overall, won by seven when they hosted the Lakers last February, a game they were laying -9 for. They're laying a lot less than that here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Bucks bounce back big. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. Speculating that the Cavs may rest one or more stars, I released this play basically as soon as the lines became available. As of this writeup, its still unclear which Cleveland stars, if any, will be rested. However, it now appears likely to happen. (Some of the DFS sites are currently suggesting that "The Big 3" are likely to all rest.) Either way, I like the Thunder to come up with a big win tonight. While Cleveland was busy battling Indiana last night, the Thunder had the night off. The Cavs just beat them by 16, at Cleveland, less than two weeks ago and they'll be anxious to avenge that 1/29 loss. While the Cavs have been pretty mediocre (14-10 after last night's win) on the road, the Thunder are an impressive 18-7 here at OKC. They're 12-7 ATS their last 19 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Playing on National TV, I expect them to serve up a healthy dose of "payback" here. 

*Important Update: As expected, the Cavs have indeed elected to rest their stars. Naturally, the line has jumped significantly, as this has now turned into a mismatch. I'm expecting a double-digit OKC win and am comfortable laying as much as -10. If the line goes higher than that, this becomes a no play. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Heat beat me last time out and are obviously "red hot." That won't prevent me from going against them here though. The Bucks got back on track last time out, delivering a convinging 25-point blowout win. They're a "streaky" team. That win gives them some much needed confidence and positive momentum and has them streaking in the right direction. 

Having just wrapped up a 3-game road trip, its worth mentioning that the Bucks are 3-0 SU/ATS after having played their previous three on the road, a profitable 13-6 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. 

While both are about 50/50 at home, both these teams struggle to win on the road. The Heat are 13-13 at Miami but only 9-17 on the road. The Bucks are 9-16 on the road but 13-13 here at Milwaukee.  

This season, the Bucks average 109.5 ppg here at Milwaukee. By comparison, the Heat average just 97.4 ppg away from Miami. Given those stats, its not surprising that the home team has won and covered all three meetings this season.

The Heat won by 23 and 12 points at Miami but the Bucks won by eight here at Milwaukee. They were laying -7.5 for that game. Now, less than a month later, due to Miami's hot streak, we're getting the Bucks at a much lower line. I believe thats providing us with excellent value and I'm expecting homecourt to again prove the difference.

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. I think that this one's going to get ugly. The Magic lost by 27 last time out. They allow over 108 ppg on the road, allowing host teams to connect on 46.6% of their shots. Now, they'll travel to Houston to face a well-rested Rockets which averages nearly 115 ppg here and which hits better than 46% of its field goals here. The Rockets have alternated wins and losses for a few weeks now and haven't actually recorded back-to-back wins for nearly a month. I believe that they're going to be highly motivated to finally string together victories. Having had the past three days off and with no game on deck tomorrow, there's no reason not to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. While the line may seem steep, note that the Rockets are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. They're also 17-7 ATS (21-3 SU) against teams with a losing record. I expect them to put up a big number and don't believe that the Magic will be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* GAME OF YEAR. After losing three straight, the Thunder got back on track in a big way last time out. They defeated Memphis by 12 points on Friday. They're now just 12-15 on the road but an impressive 17-7 here at home. 

Like the Thunder, the Blazers have long been much better on their home floor. Having recently been at the Moda Center watching basketall, I can attest that is still the case. At Portland, the Blazers can compete with any team. They're 14-11 overall in games there. Games on the road have been a different story. Indeed, the Blazers are only 8-18 when playing away from the Moda Center. That included a 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record when playing a road game when the O/U line was listed at 210 or greater. 

The recent OKC losses were "excusable." Two were at difficult road venues, games at San Antonio and Cleveland and the other was a home game which was in a back-to-back spot. After this game, the Blazers play two of their next four on the road (at Indiana and at Washington) and their two home games come against Cleveland and against Golden State. In other words, all four of those games will likely be challenging. Armed with this knowledge, the Thunder know they need to take care of business, at home, this afternoon. 

Added incentive stems from the fact that the Blazers hammered the Thunder in this season's only meeting, a 114-95 blowout at the Moda Center in mid-December. They're a solid 10-7 ATS their last 17 in the 'revenge role.'

The last meeting between these teams here at OKC was an entirely different story. Laying -8 points, the Thunder won by 34. In fact, the Thunder are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three home games in this series. All three victories came by double-digits. 

Given the situation, schedule and venue and given the fact that the Thunder are 7-1 SU/ATS when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, I believe this line could easily be higher. Look for OKC to avenge the December loss, contining its homecourt dominance in this series. *GOY

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The road team has won both meetings this season but the home team should have the edge here. The Magic are off an upset win against the Raptors yesterday and playing their third game already in February. Ibaka and Fournier both played 35+ hard-fought minutes. They're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU) when coming off an "upset" win. Like the Magic, the Hawks are off an upset win, as they won at Houston last time out. Unlike the Magic, they've had a day off in between games. While the Magic are 11-16 on the road, the Hawks are 14-10 at home. Look for the homecourt and scheduling advantage to lead to a win and cover for the Hawks. 

I'm playing on SA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers are an improved team (from recent seasons) and they had a nice run in January. However, a tough recent schedule has caught up with them. They couldn't keep up at Dallas last night (lost by 18) and things don't get any easier tonight. 

In addition to having to play back-to-back games, this will mark the 76ers' fourth game in the past five days and their seventh game in the past 10 days, a grueling stretch which occurred due to them having to play a make-up game against Sacramento on 1/30. 

While its always possible that Popovich could rest someone, the Spurs have no reason to do so. They had last night off and they have tomorrow off. Either way, it shouldn't matter. Having lost two of their last three, the Spurs aren't going to take any team for granted. The last time they faced the 76ers? A 51-point destruction. 

The Spurs did follow up their two losses with a 14-point win over OKC last time out. They're 6-0 SU/ATS against Atlantic teams and 13-6 SU/ATS off a double-digit win. Given the scheduling, talent and coaching advantage, this one should result in another rout. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. Some will take a look one look at the matchup, see the low line and assume that the Clippers are a bargain. They're not the same team without Paul (out for at least another few weeks) running the show though and I believe this one sets up well for the home team. 

Paul went down on 1/18. At the time, LA was on a 7-game win streak, covering six of those game. Since then? A 1-4 SU/ATS record. Part of that is due to the fact that they were playing at home during the winning streak and on the road during the slump. However, the injury to Paul is obviously significant.

Tonight, the Clippers are playing the final leg of a road trip. With Golden State on deck tomorrow night, it should be easy to look past the Suns, who they've already beaten by double-digits twice this season. 

Those earlier results should provide Phoenix with plenty of extra motivation here. Unlike the Clippers, the Suns have tomorrow night off. They're 11-6 ATS off a double-digit loss; I expect them to bounce back with at least another cover here. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. *10* GAME OF WEEK. Both teams have been much better of late. The 76ers survived a monster game from Cousins to score a minor upset over Sacramento on Monday. They're now a lucrative 13-3 ATS their last 16 games. At 8-2 ATS their last 10, the Mavs have been every bit as profitable the past few weeks. The Mavs' recent wins have also arguably been far more impressive. Last time out, the Mavs beat Cleveland. The previous night, they beat the Spurs, at San Antonio. How many teams can say that they've beaten both the Cavs and Spurs in a two-day span? Since then, they've had a day off. Unlike the 76ers, who will play at San Antonio tomorrow, the Mavs also get tomorrow off. 

While the 76ers are still just 6-14 on the road, tonight's game offer the Mavs a chance to get back to .500 at home. They're 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams which average 99 or more points per game (Philly now averages 100.9) and they're 5-1 ATS on the season, when laying points. They beat the 76ers by 26 points last year; I expect them to keep on rolling with another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* PERS FAV. The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in four straight games, losing three of those outright. This should be an excellent spot for them to break through with a big "blowout" win. 

The Rockets are in one of their best roles here. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Note that they're also 28-18 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit loss. 

This is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Kings. Not only are they playing their second game in two days, they're also playing their fourth road game in the past five days. Yesterday's loss, a make-up from an earlier postponed game, was a difficult one, too. The Kings blew a double-digit lead and had to fight hard the entire way. Cousins had a huge game but it wasn't enough, the Kings' star eventually fouling out. 

The Rockets have won both of this season's meetings with the Kings by double-digits. They won those games by an average of 23.5 points. I'm expecting this one to also "turn ugly."

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* MAIN EVENT. A loss against the Nuggets in their last game notwithstanding, the Suns have been playing quite well lately. They're now 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 games. I believe that they're offering excellent value as a home underdog this evening. The Grizzlies are only a .500 team on the road, where they get outscored by a 104.4 to 102.5 average margin. 

One might expect the Grizzlies to fare well against "defensively-challenged" teams like the Suns. However, they're actually only 15-20 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more ppg including 0-3 ATS their last three. On the season, they're 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. In fact, they're 0-7 ATS (1-6 SU) their last seven in that situation. 

Meanwhile the Suns are 2-0 ATS on the season, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 205 to 209.5 range. They're 18-11 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. 

Knowing that they're going to face the Grizzlies, at Memphis, in a week, the Suns should be extremely motivated to "hold serve" here. With the Suns also a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were off an "upset loss," I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the 76ers have been playing rather well of late. I'm still not ready to call them a great team though. The Bulls are off b2b losses and they've got a difficult 6-game West Coast road trip on deck. In other words, they absolutely need to stop the bleeding here. I expect them to do just that. The Bulls beat the 76ers by 16 (at Philly) in this season's only previous meeting. The last meeting here at Chicago also resulted in a double-digit win for the Bulls. Normally, the 76ers would have had tomorrow off. However, they have a make-up game to play against Sacramento. That means that they'll rest Joel Embiid as they'd rather have him ready for the home game. Look for a "desperate" Bulls team to take advantage. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNHILATOR. While they blew the cover in the fourth quarter, the Cavs bounced back with a much needed win last time out. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. While the Thunder have won a few in a row, those opponents weren't in the same class as the defending champs. For the season, the Thunder are just 7-10 ATS when getting points. Overall, they're 12-13 on the road while the Cavs are 20-5 at home. The Cavs still outscore teams by more than nine ppg here at home while the Thunder still get outscored by nearly five ppg on the road. Look for Lebron and co. to put it all together for the full four quarters, improving to 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. 

 I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Nuggets are expected to be without but Mudiay and Jokic here. The Jokic injury is particularly significant as he's been an absolute beast in recent weeks. The Suns will be playing with "triple revenge." Not only did they lose twice to the Nuggets earlier in the season but they also just lost at Denver a couple of days ago. Counting that one as a 'push,' the Suns are a healthy 10-3-1 ATS their last 14 games. They're 19-14-2 ATS the last 35 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss and I expect them to get some "payback" this evening. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. These teams have split a pair of meetings this season. In both cases, the home team won and covered. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. The Hawks are a solid 13-9 at home. The Wizards are a terrible 6-14 on the road. Atlanta averages 105.5 ppg at home while Washington allows 107.9 ppg on the road. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team tonight. Lebron was clearly not happy in the post-game interviews after the Sacramento loss. I expect him to be "on a mission" tonight. Note that the Cavs are 1-0 SU/ATS after losing three straight this season. 

While the line may seem high, note that the Cavs are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) on the season, when favored in the -12.5 to -18 range. As for the Nets, they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. 

The Cavs have beaten the Nets by 20 points in each of the last two meetings here at Cleveland. I expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Bucks got back on track on Monday, posting a double-digit victory over Houston. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to deliver a repeat performance this evening.

The 76ers are certainly playing a lot better these days. This is a tough spot for them though, as they're off a win vs. the Clippers last night. They were just in this situation a few days ago - off a win and playing their second game in two days - and they lost by double-digits vs. Atlanta. That 17-point loss dropped them to 1-8 SU, when playing the second of b2b games. 

The Bucks, who are 6-2 SU/ATS when coming off an "upset win," will be looking to settle a score, as the 76ers beat them here less than two weeks ago. I expect them to have their revenge, in "blowout fashion."

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. With the Cavs off back-to-back losses, the Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. 

The Cavs already beat the Kings by 12, at Sacramento, a couple of weeks ago. In the last meeting here at Cleveland, the Cavs beat the Kings by 20. This one should also turn ugly. 

The Kings also had the misfortune of facing Cleveland off b2b losses the last time the teams met. However, this will mark the first time that the Cavs played a home game, following b2b losses. Needless to say, they're going to be in a foul mood and looking to make amends. 

With tomorrow off and Brooklyn on deck the next day, the Cavs have no reason to look ahead, or to hold back. Including this season's win, the Cavs have defeated the Kings four straight times. Those victories came by an average of 13 points. Fully motivated, I expect the Cavs to exceed that average here. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, going against this very talented Golden State team can be a bit hard on the nerves. However, this should be an excellent spot to do so. Off three straight victories, the Heat are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. They already played the Warriors fairly tough at Golden State, losing by 12 as +14.5 point underdogs. They also covered the spread in both meetings against the Warriors last season, losing by six and eight points.

While the Heat had yesterday off, the Warriors are off an afternoon game against the Magic. This will actually mark the first time since before Christmas that they played two games in two days. The last time that they were in that spot was on 12/23, when they failed to cover at Detroit. 

While they covered a larger number yesterday, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. With the Heat at 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season, I'm grabbing all those generous points.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE Divisional GAME OF MONTH. These teams are neck-and-neck in the Southeast division. Washington is 23-20 overall. Charlotte is 23-21. Both teams have been much better at home. The Hornets are 15-7 at home but 8-14 on the road. Likewise, the Wizards are 18-6 at home but only 5-14 on the road. Not surprisingly, the Wizards finished on top when the teams met at Washington. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the Hornets to have the advantage. 

Both teams had Sunday off. While the Hornets have tomorrow off, the Wizards play Boston tomorrow, a team which recently defeated them. 

The 109-106 loss at Washington notwithstanding, the Hornets have been outstanding against divisional opponents. They're 6-1 SU/ATS against fellow Southeast opponents. The Hornets won both meetings here last season, taking them by an average of nine points. I expect them to finish on top once again.

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, for the fifth time this season, the Raptors are going to be highly motivated to get back on track. 

In each of the previous four instances that the Raptors had lost two straight, they responded by winning their next game. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games, including 1-0 SU/ATS when playing here at Toronto.

In addition to wanting to "get back on track," the Raptors will be motivated by the fact that Suns upset them, at Phoenix, a few weeks ago. 

A look back at that 12/29 game at Phoenix reveals that the Raptors were off a big game against Golden State the night before and playing their third game in four days. 

The shoe is on the other foot this time though. Not only are the Raptors playing at home, but this time they're the rested team. Phoenix, on the other hand, is off a game at MSG last night, vs. its former coach. In addition to the back-to-back spot, the Suns will be playing their third game in four days. 

I'm playing on NY 10* REVENGE GAME OF YEAR. While the Suns certainly have some capable players, the Knicks have the superior lineup. They're also much better at home than the Suns are on the road. The Knicks are 12-10 SU (14-8 ATS) here at MSG, the Suns are just 6-18 on the road. The Suns consistently give up a lot of points and they allow more than 113 ppg away from Phoenix.

Speaking of bad defense, NY has been at its best, when coming off a sub-par defensive effort. Off a 113-110 loss against the Wizards last time out, note that the Knicks are a lucrative 17-8 ATS the past 25 times that they'd given up 105 or more points in their previous game. 

Looking at the game from a motivation standpoint and the Knicks should be the hungrier team. For starters, they're fighting for their playoff lives in the East, while the Suns are playing out the string in the West. If the season ended today, the Knicks would be out. They know they can't afford to squander a home game against the team with the worst record in the West. 

There's more to it than that though. Current NY coach Jeff Hornacek was fired by the Suns. The Knicks talked about winning his return to Phoenix for him last month but the Suns spoiled those plans by beating them, in OT. After that game, Hornacek commented: "I don't think we came out with the intensity that we needed to play the game."

Expect Hornacek to have his team ready to go. In this case, the 'revenge' factor is real.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers actually come in hotter. However, I still believe that the Blazers are the superior team and I expect them to show it this evening. 

Fighting for their playoff lives, the Blazers can ill afford a winless road trip. Their recent skid has seen them fall to 9th, a half game back of Denver. Knowing that tomorrow night's game at Boston will be tough, they know that they absolutely need to take care of business at Philly tonight. Note that the Blazers are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. 

For the past few weeks, there's been quite a lot of talk of a trade between these teams. Fairly rich at center, he 76ers may be interested in dealing Noel, as his contract expires at the end of the season.  McCollum has been a big part of most of those discussions. Look for him and Lillard to lead the way tonight, their edge in the backcourt ultimately making the difference.

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GAME OF WEEK. Its been more than a decade since these teams met in the finals now. While neither will be returning anytime soon, both are coming off impresive upset wins. The Mavs knocked off the Bulls last time out, earning their third straight win. The Heat defeated a red hot Houston team. I believe Miami will be the team which "stays hot" here. 

Though they had yesterday off, the Mavs have done alot of travel lately. After playing at Minnesota, they faced Phoenix in Mexico City. Then, back to Dallas, before moving on to Chicago. Note that they've only won b2b road games once all season. Tomorrow, they'll return home to host Utah. 

The Heat, on the other hand, have tomorrow off. and they haven't played a game outside of Miami since 1/13. While "winning streaks" have been few and far between, I believe that they're going to be hungry to follow up the win against Houston with another victory. 

A look at Miami's schedule shows that each of their recent victories has been followed by a road game. So, thats made winning consecutive games tough. They're well aware that tonight's game - against a Dallas team which is an ugly 6-16 on the road - provides them with an excellent opportunity. 

Its been a few weeks since the Heat were favored. The last time that they were laying points was before Christmas for a game against the Lakers. They won and covered. I expect the Heat, who won and covered both meetings against the Mavs last season, to protect their homecourt, taking advantage of a beatable opponent and winning back-to-back games for the first time in 2017. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Kings beat the Pacers in both games last season. That included a 108-97 victory here at Sacramento, almost exactly one year ago. I like their chances again tonight. 

This is the final game of a homestand for the Kings. Knowing that their next eight games will come on the road, including one at Indiana, the Kings should be highly motivated to earn a victory tonight. Note that they're already a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. 

I like the Pacers as a team and believe that they're probably a little better than their record indicates. That said, they've been terrible away from home all season. Indeed, they're 5-14 (SU and ATS!) on the road and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as road underdogs of three or fewer points.

With the Pacers also an ugly 2-7 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the Kings. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. As you know the Cavs knocked off the Warriors in the Finals last season. As you may also be aware, the Cavs beat the Warriors on Christmas Day, too. Those results should ensure we see the Warriors' very best game on Monday night. I expect that to be enough for a convincing win and cover. While they're an oustanding 18-3 at Cleveland, the Cavs are a medicore 11-7 on the road. The Warriors, also 18-3 at home, are an excellent 32-17-2 ATS (42-9 SU) the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' Payback time. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played against the Pistons in each of their past three games. In each case, I had reasons why. (Feel free to scroll through my past results/picks to find out what those reasons were.) Tonight, however, I believe the Pistons are going to be extremely motivated to close out their road trip with a victory. This is a trip which started out very well, before turning sour in the second half of the Sacramento game. A win tonight will salvage the trip, or at least keep it from being a complete disaster. 

The Lakers aren't a good team and they currently aren't playing well. They're off three straight losses, all coming by double-digits. The most recent of those came against the Clippers yesterday, putting LA in a back-to-back spot. (The Pistons had yesterday off.)

This is projected to be a fairly high-scoring game and that figures to also favor Detroit. The Pistons don't generally see too many O/U lines this high. However, they are 2-1 ATS on the season when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 7-3-1 ATS (7-4 SU) their last 11 in that situation. Going back further finds them at a profitable 30-14-1 ATS the last 45 times that they played a game with a total of 210 or greater. With the Lakers now a money-burning 27-46-3 ATS (18-58 SU) the past couple of seasons, with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the rested and motivated visitors. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. After winning with them a couple of game ago, in their victory over the Grizzlies, I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game, a double-digit loss at Minnesota. I feel that this will be another good spot to go against them. 

I won with the Kings two games ago, as they delivered an inspired comeback win against the Pistons. They were unable to follow that up with another victory but thats not surprising, given that they were up against the Cavs. This year's Thunder are beatable (on the road) though. In fact, the Kings already hammered them here (116-101) earlier this season. Including that result, OKC is just 9-11 on the road, getting outscored by an average margin of 107.3 to 102.6. (The Kings score more points than that here at home, while allowing less.)

Both teams had yesterday off. The Thunder have a showdown vs. the Clippers on deck tomorrow though, followed by a date with Golden State, while the Kings have the next two days off. 

The Kings have been at their best off a big loss this season, going 8-3 ATS (7-4 SU) when off a double-digit loss. I like their chances of scoring the upset. 

I’m playing on WASHINGTON. The 76ers earned a rare win last night. Don't expect it to happen again. The Wizards, who had the past two nights off, come in with a score to settle. Thats because the 76ers beat them earlier. Thats going to ensure that they don't overlook them and it should help in "keeping the pedal to the metal" the entire way. Note that the Wizards a profitable 14-7 ATS when playing with 'revenge.' Off a 117-108 loss at Boston on Wednesday, its also worth noting that the Wizards are 15-9 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. Prior to that loss, they'd covered three straight. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. While the Spurs will likely have quite a few fans cheering for them, I believe that that the Suns already having played here gives them a considerable advantage. The Spurs had to travel here and adjust. The Suns have already got a game under their belts down here, a chance to adjust to the altitude and become familiar with the nets. I don't mind that they lost (I won with the Over) as it should add to their hunger here; they'd like to salvage a split out of the trip. Off a 40-point win, the Spurs, who had last year's trip here "smoked out," could easily get caught looking past the Suns, a team which they've already beaten them twice by double-diigits. That figures to prove costly, as no team has beaten the Suns by more than 11 yet in 2017. Given the situation, I feel the number is generously high and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10* MAIN EVENT. I don't mean to keep picking on the Pistons, but this is another tough spot for them. The loss at Sacramento was of the "deflating" variety, as they coughed up a big second half lead against one of the weaker teams in the West. Last night, they got blown out by the best offensive team in the league. Now, playing the second of b2b games and their third game in four days, the Pistons have to take on the league's stingiest team.

The Jazz allow just 94.9 points per game. Next best is San Antonio and the Spurs allow 97.9. At home, the Jazz allow a mere 93 points per game. Opposing teams shoot just 41.9% from the field here. By comparison, the Pistons allow 103.8 ppg on the road, allowing teams to hit 46.9% from the field. 

Last night's game was costly, in that Pope went down to injury. As of this writing, he's listed as questionable. He did fly to Utah with the team, where he'll have an MRI today. I'm guessing he doesn't play though, given that he looked to be in considerable pain. He gives them a ton of minutes and figures to be missed. Either way, the Pistons are going to have some trouble. 

The Pistons are just 2-5 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've been in that situation twice (vs. Indiana on 12/17 and at Charlotte on 12/7) since the start of December and lost by double-digits each time. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Warriors haven't covered for some time but I feel this will be a great spot for them to explode with a lopsided win. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game, backing the Kings on Tuesday. That one didn't look good at all, as the Pistons were up double-digits in the second half. In fact, they stretched the lead all the way to 18 at one point. However, the Kings made a run and the Pistons couldn't answer.

As The Detroit News called it, that was a "devastating loss." The Pistons had won back-to-back games and a victory would have had them riding a 3-game winning streak and bringing some confidence into tonight's game. That didn't happen though and I expect Tuesday's second half meltdown to have a negative effect on them tonight.

Though they haven't covered, the Warriors have still won their last two games by double-digits. While the Pistons are now 8-13 (SU and ATS) on the road, the Warriors are 17-3 here at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 14.4 points here. Note that they beat the Pistons by 14 here last season. 

The Warriors had yesterday off and they haven't had to play back-to-back games (two games in two days) since before Christmas. After tonight's game, they get a few days off. In other words, there's no reason to hold back or save themselves.

The Warriors are 72-52-4 ATS when off a double-digit win the past 2+ seasons, 19-1 SU their last 20. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way here. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. The Thunder will have payback on their minds as the Grizzllies embarrassed them, at Memphis, less than two weeks ago. The Grizzlies won that 12/29 game by 34 points. While the Thunder are below .500 on the road, they're 14-6 here at home. The loss at Memphis was the start of a stretch which saw the Thunder lose four of five. However,  off back-to-back double-digit blowout wins, they're healthy now and have found their groove. They beat the Grizzlies by 18 here last January and by 16 the previous meeting. Revenge will be even sweeter, in front of the national TV audience.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Rockets are obviously red hot, I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them. I backed  the Wolves in their last game, a 9-point win on Monday and liked what I saw from them. Off that momentum-building win, unlike their guests, the Wolves had yesterday off. Meanwhile, Houston was busy beating Charlotte. Its true that the Rockets have fared quite well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this will also be their third game in four nights and their fifth game in the past seven days. I could see it finally catching up to them here. The Wolves already gave the Rockets all they could handle here a month ago, losing by just two points. Like now, the Rockets were rolling at the time and also coming off a win the previous night. Look for the Wolves to give them all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* PERS FAV. Off three straight losses, knowing they've got three fairly difficult games (Cleveland, OKC, Indiana) on deck, followed by a tough road trip, one which will include a game against these same Pistons, the Kings are going to be very hungry to take care of business this evening. Note that they're 4-1 ATS off three consecutive losses and 7-3 ATS off a double-digit loss. While the Pistons are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Kings are 2-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. With the Pistons also at 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. Off four straight losses, the T-Wolves could really use a big win. Tonight should be the perfect spot to get one. While the T-Wolves admittedly haven't been great at home, they at least do outscore teams by a slight margin here. The Mavericks, on the other hand, get outscored by a 102.7 to 94.6 margin on the road, where they're just 4-15. While Dallas scores 94.6 ppg on the road, Minnesota scores 104.3 ppg here at home. 

In recent seasons, the Mavs have had their way with the T-Wolves. This year's Dallas team isn't as strong as past teams though while the talented young T-Wolves' players are slowly getting better. Knowing that they'll face the Mavs again at Dallas, in less than a week, the T-Wolves should be particularly anxious to "hold serve" at home and to finally get a win against a team which has had their number. Off a cover against the Jazz on Saturday, the T-Wolves are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they'd lost three or more (SU games) in a row. I expect them to improve on those stats here, the Mavs falling to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. This is a tough spot for the Knicks. Last night, they gave everything they had in their game at Milwaukee. To their credit, they fought back, erased a huge second half deficit and won the game. However, they used a ton of energy to do so. Keep in mind that they've still lost six of seven. Now, off that extremely hard-fought battle and playing their sixth game in the past nine days, they'll take on a rested and rejuvenated Pacers team which is enjoying its best stretch of the season. Note that NY is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The Knicks lost those six games by 79 combined points, an average loss of more than 13 points. Five of the six losses came by a minimum of seven points. 

Finally starting to play up their potential, the Pacers have won four straight, covering all in all four of those. Three of those four games came here at Indiana and all three resulted in double-digit victories. While the Knicks beat them at MSG just before Christmas, the Pacers have dominated them here at Indiana in recent seasons. The most recent meeting here resulted in a 12-point Pacer win, last April. With the schedule firmy in their favor, I expect them revenge-minded Pacers to keep rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are cathing the Clippers at the right time. Not only is Griffin out, but Paul is also expected to miss Friday's game. He's currently listed as doubtful. Even if he were to play, however, I like the Kings' chances tonight. The Kings looked fairly impressive in winning at Denver in their first 2017 game but couldn't follow it up with another victory, when playing the second of b2b games. They had yesterday off though and they're coming in looking to settle a score with an instate "rival" which has dominated them here in recent seasons. The Kings, 8-5 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, are 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents thus far while the Clippers are just 2-3 ATS. I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* BEST BET. While the Magic had last night off, the Rockets were involved in a hard-fought battle against the Thunder, a 118-116 thriller. Harden and Westbrook are battling for the MVP and the two battled each other pretty hard last night. Harden, one of four Rockets to play more than 30 minutes, was on the flloor for 38 minutes.

While the Rockets have proven that they can win when playing their second game in two nights, not all b2b spots are equal and last night's game (an MVP showdown, which came down the wire, on National TV) was the type of game that it can be easy to have a bit of an emotional letdown from. Also, off that win and with Toronto on deck, they could easily look past lowly Orlando. Either way, I expect the rested Magic to be ready for them. 

The Magic played the Rockets tough in both games last season, covering in each of them. They lost by just five at Houston (as +9 point underdogs) and they won 104-101 in the game here at Orlando. Harden got his points (31) but the Magic limited his time spent on the free throw line and played a solid team game themselves. Including those results, Orlando is actually 16-8-1 ATS its last 25 against teams from the Southwest. Knowing that they hit the road for six games after this, the Magic should be highly motivated to take care of business at home before they go. Like last year, I expect them to give the Rockets all they can handle again here, with a great shot at another outright win. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* VIOLATOR. Off three straight impressive wins, the Pacers are finally starting to play up to their potential. That's going to spell trouble for a Nets team which has lost three straight and eight of nine. While the Nets last two losses have both come by double-digits, the Pacers' last two games here both results in double-digit wins. While the Nets won the game at Brooklyn, the Pacers won by 21 when the teams met here earlier. The Nets haven't gotten any better and the Pacers are stronger now than they were then. I'm expecting another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. That was on the road though and it was against a revenge-minded Bulls team which I thought was going to be desperate for a win. The shoe's on the other foot this time though. This time, the Hornets are at home. This time, off b2b losses and knowing that they've got a 5-game road trip on deck after this, one which includes stops at San Antonio, Houston, Detroit and Boston, the Hornets know that they need to take care of business tonight, or they risk getting off to a potentially ugly start to 2017. 

While the Thunder get outscored by a 107.2 to 101.9 margin on the road, the Hornets outscore teams by a 104.3 to 101.4 margin here at home. They're a modest 3-2 ATS as home underdogs of three or fewer points this season, 13-10 ATS in that role, the past 2+ seasons. Those number sound a whole lot better when compared to OKC's 0-4 ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. In fact, thats been an ugly role for the Thunder, even prior to Durant's departure. They're just 3-15 SU/ATS their last 18 as road underdogs of three or less. 

The Hornets weren't able to beat the Thunder in recent seasons but I believe they're ready to take the next step and I look for them do so tonight, covering the small nubmer along the way.

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Suns aren't favored too often but I feel they could easily be laying a bigger number tonight. The Heat, who have lost five straight and eight of nine, are a mess right now. They've been dealing with major injury issuses all season but are also going to be without Whiteside tonight, a major blow. Winslow is also out. Dragic is questionabe while Waiters doubtful, Bosh and McRoberts remain out. Sure, the Suns played last night, a blowout loss at LA. However, they had the previous couple of days off. So, its not that gruelling a spot. Also, the last time they were in a back-to-back spot, they won outright vs. a very good Toronto team. Including that result, they're 9-5-1 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Look for homecourt and superior health to be the difference in this one, the Suns bouncing back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. Recent results are providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated Bulls team. The Bulls have thrived in home games hovering around the pick'em range. Over the past couple of seasons, they're 9-4 ATS (2-0 ATS this season) as a home underdog, or pick'em, of three points or less. During that stretch, they're also 12-6 ATS (3-1 this season) as home favorites of three or fewer points. Charlotte is 8-8 on the road, the Bulls are 10-7 at home. The Bulls know that they've got the Cavs next and that three of their next five are on the road, with the two home games both coming against quality (Toronto and OKC) teams. In other words, they need to stop the bleeding now. Added motivation provided by the fact that the Hornets beat them by double-digits at Charlotte, just over a week ago. New year = Payback time. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOM. Both these teams lost yesterday. Neither looked particularly sharp. Rondo got benched for the second half, which may well serve as a wake-up call. I like the fact that the Bulls played at 4pm ET yesterday, as opposed to the 8:00pm ET start that the Bucks had to deal with. They were already showering and getting ready to head home, before the Bucks even got started. Sleeping in their own beds should work to their advantage, with both teams in a three-games-in-four-days spot.

While the Bulls are only 3-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are just 1-5 SU/ATS when doing so. The Bulls should have some added motivation, as the Bucks beat them twice in a row earlier this month. The last thing they want to do is lose three games in a single month against a division rival which is neck-and-neck with them in the Central. 

The Bulls are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as home favorites of three or fewer points, going 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) in that role the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to rise to the occasion and close out the year with a win and cover.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played on the Pistons a couple of times recently. I backed them when they were getting a lot of points against Golden State, catching the Warriors looking ahead to their Christmas Day game vs the Cavs. Then, I backed them against the Cavs, sans Lebron, after that game vs. the Warriors. However, those were both favorable spots. With the exception of those games, the Pistons have not been very good. They lost by 25 last time out and have now dropped six of seven overall. Every one of those losses came by at least six points. The Hawks, who have won two of three, are playing with revenge from a blowout loss at the beginning of the month. Payback time.

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. The Bulls got back on track last game, earning a victory over the Pacers. That snapped a 3-game winless streak and put an end to an ugly run which had seen them go just 1-6 their previous seven and 3-9 their previous 12. Recent games have come against quality opponents. Stepping down in class to face the Nets, I expect the Bulls to build off the Pacers' win and for them to deliver a blowout.

This game's got a high O/U line. Not surprising, given the fact that the Nets allow an obscene 117.7 ppg on the road. The high total is noteworthy as the Nets are an awful 1-24 SU and 9-14-2 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During the same stretch, the Bulls are a profitable 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing at home with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Bulls won this season's earlier meeting (at Brooklyn) by 30 points. They also won the last meeting here at Chicago (last season) by 16. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. 

I won with the Pistons (10* PERS FAV) in their last game, as they covered against the Warriors. It was a great spot, as they were catching the Warriors off a comeback win the previous night and looking ahead to the Christmas Day matchup with the Cavs. This spot is arguably even better, as they catch the Cavs off yesterday's big win over the Warriors and wiith Lebron and Irving (potentially) out. Regardless of who plays for the Cavs, look for the revenge-minded Pistons to step up and improve to 4-0 SU/ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games.

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* BB. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the Warriors received a tougher test than they were probably expecting at Brooklyn. While they ultimately did cover, thanks to a huge second half, the bad start forced them to have to fight hard the entire way. Green is expected to return, and he'll be fresh from not playing last night, but the rest of the team will be in a relatively tough back-to-back spot while also playing their third game in four nights. With a Christmas Day showdown vs. the Cavs on deck, given the success they've already had on the trip, it should be easy to look past the Pistons. The Pistons upset the Warriors here last season though, a 113-95 blowout when listed as 7-point underdogs, and I expect them to come ready to play. While the Warriors are 2-4 ATS in b2b spots this season, the Pistons are a healthy 24-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an 'upset' loss. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised to see the Pistons bounce back with the outright win. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GOW. While I respect the Celtics, I believe that the Pacers are offering excellent value here. Off a loss at MSG and knowing that the Celtics already beat them here, I expect the Pacers to be extremely motivated tonight. This is a Pacers team which had hoped to close the gap with the Cavs this season. Instead, thus far, the Pacers have gone the other way. Instead, the Pacers find teams like Toronto, New York, Charlotte and these same Celtics all in between them and the champs. While only 500 overall, they're still a solid 11-4 at home, which is superior to Boston's 10-7 road record. 

While the Celtics, who were involved in a hard-fought OT game on Tuesday, have a big home game against OKC tomorrow, followed by a Christmas Day showdown with the Knicks, the Pacers don't play for another for days after this. Look for an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Pacers, as they'll be hungry to head into the break with a winning record, rather than a losing one. Indiana leaves it all on the floor and comes away with the important win. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. They were on the road and facing a Bulls team which was going to be extra hungry due to the fact it was off a blowout loss and due to having lost three straight. The shoe's on the other foot here though. This time, the Pistons are at home and this time they're off a blowout loss, their third straight defeat. They catch the Grizzlies off a game (OT loss!) vs Boston less than 24 hours ago, playing their third game in four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. While the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS (0-10 SU) the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range, the Pistons are 7-3-1 ATS (9-2 SU) the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Pistons to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight losses, the Hornets finally got back on track last time out, a 107-99 win at Atlanta. Back home, I expect them to follow it up with a decisive win over the Lakers. Since the win at Atlanta, the Hornets have had two days off. That break probably came at the right time, as they hadn't had more than a day off in between games for some time. Its also worth mentioning that Charlotte has thrived when playing with exactly two day's rest in recent seasons and is alreayd 2-0 SU/ATS when doing so this season, winning by an average of 13 points. The Lakers eked out a cover last time out but still lost by 11. They're just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the month. Their last three losses have all been by double-digits. Charlotte was 2-0 SU/ATS against the Lakers last season, both victories coming by double-digits. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. I lost with the Bulls in their last game. So, I know that they looked pretty bad. I'm fully willing to give them another shot tonight though. The Bulls recent 3-game skid has helped to keep this line lower than it normally might be. However, off back-to-back double-digit losses of their own, the Pistons haven't exactly looked great of late either. Also, note that the Bulls are already 2-0 SU/ATS off three straight losses this season, blowing out Orlando by more than 30 points and beating San Antonio outright. Going back further finds them at 11-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off of three or more consecutive losses. 

With an O/U line currently at 195.5, as of this writing, note that the Pistons are 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range while the Bulls are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing at home with a total in the same range. The Bulls, who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Detroit, are also 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I like them to bounce back big tonight.

I'm playing on PHILADEDELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. As victories are hard to come by for each of these teams, they've probably both had this one circled. With the Nets having recently beaten the Lakers by double-digits and the 76ers off a double-digit loss to those same Lakers, many might want to back Brooklyn here. Not me. Playing at home, I expect the 76'ers to have the advantage. The home team won all four meetings last season. The Nets won 100-91 and 131-114 in the games at Brooklyn. However, the 76ers won 103-98 and 95-89 in the games here at Philly. This season, the Nets have just one win on the road while have tasted victory four times here at home. The 76ers are already 7-2 ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. With a rare chance for a victory, I expect them to "rise to the occasion" and come with the win and cover.

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. As your probably saw, these teams faced each other last night, at Milwaukee. The Bucks led big almost the entire way and finished with a 108-97 victory. Back on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Bulls to avenge that loss in a big way tonight. The Bulls, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as a host in this series, beat the Bucks by 10 and 11 points here last season. The Bulls are 7-4 at home this season, outscoring teams by a 104.5 to 99.5 margin here. The Bucks are 3-6 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 102.3 to 96.4 margin. While the Bulls have won a couple times already this season, when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are 0-4 SU/ATS in that situation. Payback time.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors enter tonight's game on a 4-game ATS skid. A date with the Knicks should help. While the Knicks are clearly an improved team this season, they're still not exactly consistent. Last time out, they lost at Phoenix. The Suns entered that game with a 7-17 record and a 3-7 mark at home. Now, they'll face a Warriors team which is leading the league and which is outscoring teams by more than 14 ppg here. Note that the recent ATS losses were on the road. The Warriors won their last two games here by 36 and 29 points, respectively. 

Speaking of "blowout" wins, the Warriors beat the Knicks by 21 points at MSG last season and by a whopping 36 here at Golden State. I don't feel the Knicks, who average 104.5 ppg on the road, are quite ready to keep up and am expecting the Warriors, who average 123.9 here at home, to ultimately pull away for another decisive win. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. While I respect the Rockets, I believe this line will prove to be a little too high. Yes, Houston has been winning. However, lets keep in mind that three of the Rockets' past five victories have come by four points or less. As hot as they've been, only three of their past eight games resulted in a double-digit win. Off a 116-92 blowout of the Lakers, the Kings come in with some positive momentum. While the wins haven't been there, they've quietly been very competitive. In fact, only two of their past 18 games resulted in a loss of greater than 10 points. One of those two losses came against these same Rockets, a 13-point loss on 11/25. Look for the Kings, who are only getting outscored by an average of 103.2 to 101.2 on the road this season, to be more competitive in this evening's rematch, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played on the T-Wolves in their last game. However, that was a much different setup from this one. Not only were the T-Wolves playing at home, but they were getting double-digits by the oddsmaker. Also, they were catching their oponent playing the second of b2b games and in a four games in five nights situation. They covered, but still lost by eight. Things set up differently here. This time, while still underdogs, the T-Wolves aren't getting nearly as many points. They're also on the road, where they really struggle and facing a Chicago team which is well-rested. Note that the Bulls are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that the played with two day's rest in between games, 2-0 SU/ATS already this season. Those wins both came by double-digits, too. The T-Wolves, who have lost four straight and eight of nine overall, are 3-9 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 109.8 to 103.5 margin. The Hawks, on the other hand, have won seven of 10 at home, outscoring teams by a 105.6 to 99.6 average. I expect them to win by more than that margin here.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat upset the Wizards at Washington last month. I expect the Wizards to return the favor tonight. The Heat entered the 11/19 meeting at Miami off a 23-point victory and off of three straight ATS wins. Things set up differently now as the Heat are off five straight losses and aren't quite as healthy as they were a month ago. Homecourt has not been an advantage to the Heat either; they're 5-9 on the road but just 2-8 here at Miami. (That includes a 0-4 SU/ATS mark as home underdogs of three or fewer points.)

The Wizards, who are a solid 50-38 ATS when playing with 'revenge' the past couple of seasons, entered the earlier meeting having lost three of their previous four. They're starting to finally play better though, having won three of their past four. As many of you know, I've successfully backed them twice in a row. This is another winnable game that they can't afford to squander and I'm going back to the well with them one more time. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards have had their way with the Bucks here the past couple of seasons. With the schdule in their favor, I expect them to have the advantage again this evening. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Bucks were busy losing at Atlanta. Thats noteworthy as they haven't fared well when playing the second of b2b games. In fact, the Bucks are 0-3 SU/ATS in that sitiation so far this season, losing by 23 at Miami (also off a game vs. Atlanta) by 15 at Detroit and by 11 at Dallas. Three tries, three double-digit losses. Look for the Wizards, who know they'll have a home-and-home series with these same Bucks later this month, to take care of business on their home floor, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. I successfully played on the Pacers when these teams met way back on 10/26, just my second play of the season. While Indiana did win by nine, it was actually somewhat of a "fortunate" win. The Pacers had blown numerous opportunities to put the Mavs away and found themselves in a dogfight down the stretch. Fortunately, they pulled away for the cover in OT. While its true that the Mavs are dealing with some injuries at the moment, I like the fact that they're getting roughly as many points tonight as they were for that game at Indiana. Venue does matter to both these teams. Though the Mavs admittedly haven't been great here at Dallas, they do have three times as many victories here as they do on the road. Meanwhile, while they're a solid 8-4 at home, the Pacers are only 3-7 away from Indiana. The Pacers are playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip tonight. Tomorrow night, they host a Portland team which just hammered them last Wednesday, the first game of their trip. That being the case, it may be easy to look past Dallas, a team they've handled. While they have lost b2b games here, the Mavs had won two of their previous three home games. Given the fact that they get outscored by an average of 115.7 to 105.7 on the road, just asking the Pacers to win is asking a lot. I'll gladly take the generous points but I like the Mavs' chances of winning outright. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Nuggets. Last night, they fell behind big (68-52 at halftime) at Brooklyn, fought hard to get back, but ultimately lost. While not all the Nuggets' starters logged big minutes - due a frustrated Malone mixing up the lineups - it was still the type of game that figures to be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Not only will the Nuggets be playing the second of b2b games but they're also playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. The Wizards, who had last night off, have played one less game during that seven game period and that figures to make a difference down the stretch tonight. Note that the Nuggets are 0-3 the last three times (10-31 L41) that they played the second of b2b games. All three of those losses came by a minimum of seven points and they came by an average of 13. Off a loss to the Magic last time out and falling further in the standings, the Wizards can't afford to squander this very winnable game. I expect their best effort and look for them to improve to 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

I'm playing on LA 10* ESPN MAIN EVENT. This is the first of four meetings between these teams this season. Both teams will be hungry. The Warriors want to prove they're still the best in the west while the Clippers want to prove that this year will be different. The last meeting between these teams here at LA saw the Warriors, who were laying -4 points, win by three. Another game decided in the final possession won't surprise. As good as the Warriors have been on the road - and they have been outstanding - the Clippers have arguably been very nearly as good here at LA. GS has outscored teams by 12.7 ppg on the road. LA has outscored teams by 12.6 ppg here at home. While the Warriors are obviously very dangerous offensively, the Clippers are among the best defensive teams in the league. Note that while the Warriors are just 5-4 ATS in road games with an O/U line of 210 or greater, the Clippers are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The schedule sets up favorably for the Clippers. They've had the past two days off and they also get the next two off. The Warriors, on the other hand, have had one day off and play tomorrow. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets were embarrassed by these same Pistons here just over a week ago. Tonight should provide an excellent opportunity for some payback. For the game here last Tuesday, the Hornets were off a game the previous night and playing their fourth game in the past five days. A brutal scheduling spot. The Pistons, who had enjoyed two straight days off, came in well-rested and routed them by a 112-89 margin. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, while the Pistons were busy beating Chicago, the Hornets had yesterday off. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pistons will also be playing their third game in the past four days. While Reggie Jackson may not play in the b2b spot for the Pistons, the Hornets hope to get Marvin Williams back, which would essentially put them at full strength. Even with last week's win here, the Pistons are still only 4-8 SU/ATS on the road. Look for the revenge-minded Hornets, who can climb back above .500 here with a win, to get some payback, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. It would be easy enough to make a case for the Jazz; admittedly they've been playing better than the Suns. A big part of beating the NBA is about taking advantage of favorable scheduling and/or "emotional" situations. In this case, I really like how things set up for the visiting Suns. The Jazz are off a fairly hard fought game at LA last night, Hayward, Gobert and co. logging relatively heavy (36 and 39) minutes. Note that Hill has been out and likely remains a gametime decision. Also, the Jazz have continued to play without Burks and now Favors.

While the Jazz have actually been pretty good when playing their second game in two nights, they'll also be playing their third game in four nights here. The abscence of Favors figures to be magnified. Additionally, they've got a big game against Golden State on deck. That being the case, it should be easy to look past the "lowly Suns," who are off a blowout loss to those same Warriors and who the Jazz swept last season. That'll prove costly though. The Suns are well-rested, having had the past two days off. They're also hungry to bounce back from the embarrassing loss against Golden State.

While the Jazz are 7-10-1 ATS their last 18 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, the Suns are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were off a double-digit loss and 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they gave up 105 or more points in their last game. Already 3-0 ATS this season, when listed as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range, I like the Suns to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GOW. While I successfully played against the Bucks in their last game, I believe that they're offering excellent value tonight. Last time out, given the situation, I felt that the Bucks were laying a few too many points as they were favored by 10 against a revenge-minded Brooklyn team. Though the Bucks failed to cover (barely) they still won by nine points. That marked their fourth straight victory. One of those was a 118-101 win over Cleveland, too. The Bucks had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Outscoring opponents by a 109.4 to 103.9 margin on this floor this season, they're going to come in full of confidence. The Spurs are on an extended hot streak and are off b2b victories. However, it should be noted that neither of those victories came by more than seven points. They beat a depleted Dallas team by only seven and then only squeaked by the Wizards by two. Note that Parker didn't play in either of those games, after tweaking his leg against the Magic on Tuesday. (Popovich has called him day-to-day.) Unlike the Bucks, the Spurs play (at Minnesota) tomorrow. That being the case, although its still early in the season, you never know when Popovich might surprise by resting a player. While we obiously won't count on that, I don't expect that we'll need to. Note that the last time that the Spurs played the front end of b2b games, they got blown out at Orlando. The Bucks are 4-2 ATS against teams from the West and I like their chances of AT LEAST another cover again tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. The Blazers were laying -6.5 for the game here and they won by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. The Blazers know that they have a difficult stretch coming up. After this game, they hit the road for five games. Then, they're back home for just one game (OKC) before hitting the road again. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business here at home, before they go. Off a 22-point win over the Pacers last time out, Portland has now won two of three. The Heat have already had a successful road trip and may already be looking forward to getting home. They're 1-3 ATS their last four off an "upset win" and 0-4 ATS the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers, who had two days off before their blwout of the Pacers, have again had two days off. They'll be fresh and I look for them to be hungry. The Blazers are averaging 118.4 ppg their last five and 113.3 ppg (47.1%) at home on the season. I think that the Heat, who average only 96.9 ppg (42.8%) on the road, are going to have trouble keeping up. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. This is the biggest number that the Bucks have been asked to lay this season; I feel it will prove to be too high. The Bucks are off three straight wins, most recently beating these same Nets at Brooklyn on Thursday night. Playing with such recent "revenge" should provide the Nets, 2-0 ATS the last two times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, with some added motivation. While the Bucks' 3-game winning streak has helped in driving up the line, note that Milwaukee is an ugly 2-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after three or more consecutive SU victories. Going back further finds the Bucks at a money-burning 48-88-7 ATS their last 143 in that situation. The Nets played the Bucks tough here earlier in the season, losing by only two. Look for them to give the Bucks all they can handle once again here.

I'm playing on DENVER 10* PERS FAV. This is a very tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Last night, they left it all on the floor at Golden State, ultimately winning in double-OT. Harden played a whopping 45 mins. Anderson (44) and Ariza (42) were both up there, too. After logging that many minutes, playing in the high altitude of Denver figures to be tougher than normal. In addition to the back-to-back spot, note that the Rockets will also be playing their third game in the past four nights. Meanwhile, the Nuggets had last night off and have played just one game since 11/28. Needless to say, they should have the fresher legs tonight.

The Nuggets have fared well against high-scoring, "defensively-challenged" teams like Houston. They're 6-2 ATS against teams that allow 99+ points per game and 7-3 ATS against teams which score 99+ per game. The Nuggets, 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were home favorites of three or fewer points, had their way with the Rockets last season, going 3-0 SU/ATS. With the schedule in their favor and knowing that they badly could use a win before hitting the road for six games after this, I expect more of the same tonight.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. While most knew it was going to be a long season, Dallas fans probably didn't expect it to be this bad. Indeed, the Mavs (3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS) are a mess right now, a shell of the team that they once were. Give them credit for fighting hard against San Antonio last night but expect it to catch up with them tonight. This will be the third time that the Mavs will play their second game in two nights. The first two times saw them lose by 29 combined points, while going 0-2 SU/ATS. Don't expect the Hornets to show them any mercy. Charlotte lost last time out. The Hornets were off a game the previous night though and playing their fourth game in five nights. Having won by 19 the previous night, we can forgive the last loss, or at least explain it. While the Mavs, who will be without Nowitzki and Barea, are 1-5 ATS against teams from the East, the Hornets are a solid 4-2 ATS against teams from the West. With the schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Hornets to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOW. I played against the Lakers last night and they got destroyed at New Orleans. Now, they're at (arguably) an even more difficult venue, while playing the second of b2b games. (The Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by an average of 109 to 98.4.) Note that the Lakers have just five wins the last 37 times that they played the second of b2b games. The last two times that they were in that situation they lost by scores of 149-106 and 125-99.

In addition to playing in a b2b spot, the Lakers will also be playing their third game in the past four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. Thats a pretty gruelling stretch, made worse by the fact that they're missing D'Angelo Russell right now. Also, Nick Young who provides valuable minutes off the bench and was even more important after Russell went down, left last night's game and needed help getting to the locker-room. While his status isn't entirely clear until after today's MRI, it'd surprise me if he played.

Regardless of whether the Lakers have Young for this game or not, the well-rested Bulls are more than capable of delivering a blowout. They already won by eight at LA last week and the previous two meetings both resulted in double-digit wins. Speaking of double-digits wins, this will be just the Bulls' third home game since 11/5. Both previous ones resulted in double-digit wins, the Bulls winning those two games by 43 combined points.

With an O/U line currently sitting at 212, the pace figures to favor the Bulls. They're 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when doing so at home. With the schedule in their favor, I'm anticipating another beatdown. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Lakers embarrassed the Pelicans here earlier this month. I say New Orleans gets some payback tonight. While the Lakers were healthy, the Pelicans were still without Jrue Holliday for the 11/12 meeting. It also didn't help matters that Davis went down and left the game game at a critical time. (While Davis did return, the Lakers went on a 14-0 run while he was out.) As for Holliday, he's playing now, with some games under his belt, and that makes this N.O. team a lot better.  A couple of recent road losses notwithstanding, the Pelicans are playing well right now, winning four of their last six. Since the loss to LA, they've gone a perfect 4-0 here, beating Boston, Portland, Charlotte and Minnesota. They won those four games by a combined 39 points, nearly 10 points per game. This time, its the Lakers who are dealing with a signficant injury in the backcourt, as D'Angelo Russel has gone down. He was +13 with 22 points, six assists while adding a couple of rebounds and a block in the earlier meeting. Note that Randle who led the Lakers with 11 rebounds and a +17 plus/minus mark in that game is also currently questionable. He was limited to non-contact work during yesterday's practice and will likely be a gametime decision. Either way, with the Lakers are just 4-9 ATS (3-10 SU) their past 13 off a double-digit win and the Pelicans at 20-12 ATS their past 32 off an "upset" loss, I say its payback time. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. Both these clubs have struggled to start the season. While the teams are much different, both bring similar stats to the table. The Wizards are 5-10. The Kings are 6-10. The Wizards score 102.1 points and allow 105.1. The Kings score 102.5 ppg and allow 105.5. While contending in the West is likely (again) going to be difficult for the Kings, the Wizards are fully capable of righting the ship and returning to the playoffs in the East. That said, they need to take care of business at home against teams like the one they'll face tonight.

As you likely recall, Wall and Cousins played together at Kentucky. About six weeks ago now, the two stars squared off against each other at their old stomping grounds, as these teams played an exhibition game against each other at Rupp Arena. Cousins and the Kings finished on top, 124-119. With this evening's "rematch" being played at Washington, I expect Wall and co. to return the favor.

Washington is off a loss last time out. That was against the Spurs though and they were playing the second of b2b games. Prior to that, they'd won back-to-back games and three of four. The Wizards have been a little cautious with limiting the minutes of their starters on both the front and back end of b2b situations. They didn't play last night though and they also get tomorrow off. While Cousins will obviously present a difficult matchup, Wall (and Beal) should enjoy a considerable edge in the backcourt. Note that the Kings are already 0-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The home team easily won and covered both meetings last season, the Wizards winning 113-99 in the game here at Washington. Knowing they hit the road for three games after this, including tough games at OKC and SA to start the trip, look for the Wizards to up their game and come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. While the Pacers will be without Paul George, I believe that they're offering excellent value here. Obviously, George is a great player and he makes the Pacers a much better team. That said, they've been pretty inconsistent and have under-achieved to start the season. In that type of situation, learning how to play and win without its star can often help a team. While the competition (Nets) was admittedly on the weak side, the Pacers played great without George last time out, earning a 21-point win over Brooklyn, a win which should provide them with plenty of confidence. Coach Nate McMillan said this after that win: "Tonight is what I feel we can become. I told the guys we can't go back. We can't keep going back and forth. We've got to build off of this and establish our identity." The Clippers proved beatable last time out, stumbling at Detroit. Knowing that this is their last home game for awhile and that they'll face these same Clippers again on their upcoming road trip, I expect the Pacers' best effort and for that to result in AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Playing at MSG, the Knicks beat the Hornets in OT yesterday. With tonight's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor. In three b2b situations this season, the Knicks have allowed 118, 118 and 119 points. Not surprisingly, they were 0-3 SU/ATS in those games. All three losses came by a minimum of seven points, two of them by double-digits. They're now just 11-30 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. This season, the Knicks are only 1-5 on the road, allowing an ugly 112.5 ppg. The Hornets, 7-4 ATS when laying points this season, are 48-38-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* GOW. By coincidence, last "Black Friday," I also released my NBA "Game Of The Week." It also involved the Clippers. Only last year, I was playing on the Clippers (they won 111-90, capping a 7-0 day) and this year I'm playing against them. Last season, the Clippers were playing at home and facing a New Orleans team which was playing without Anthony Davis. Yet, they were still only laying -6 or -6.5 points. This year, they're on the road against (arguably) a tougher opponent, yet they're laying a similar number. I believe thats providing excellent value with the capable home underdog. I backed the Pistons in their last game and they rewarded me with a 23-point beating of Miami. That blowout win should provide some confidence here. Knowing that the Clippers already hammered them at LA - and also knowing that they take to the road after this - should provide the Pistons with some added motivation. They're now 6-2 SU/ATS at home, outscoring teams by a dominating 101.2 to 88.1 margin here. With the Clippers an ugly 9-22 ATS the last 31 times (3-10 ATS L13) that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. Davis is obviously a dominant force. However, the Hawks still have the more complete team. While they lost at MSG last time out, the Hawks are a dominant 6-1 SU/ATS here at Atlanta. They're outscoring teams by "double-digits" here, an average score of 112.4 to 102.4. The Pelicans are off b2b solid wins. However, those both came at New Orleans.They're only 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 100 to 92.7. Off their "upset" of Charlotte, note that the Pelicans are a dismal 12-26-1 ATS (12-27 SU) the last 39 times that they won outright as an underdog, in their previous game. They lost by seven against Orlando and by 27 against the Lakers so far in that situation this season. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 24-16-1 ATS (27-14 SU) off a SU loss in a game where they were favored. Knowing they hit the road for five games after this, look for the Hawks to bounce back and take care of business at home tonight.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Its been a bad start to the road trip for the Blazers and with more difficult games to follow, they know that they need to take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do just that. The Nets are coming off a difficult road trip of their own. While they've admittedly been much better at home, playing the first game back from a long trip can often be challenging. The Blazers are 8-5 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, one of their better roles away from Portland. They were laying -4 points here last season and won by 12. I'm expecting them to bounce back with a similar effort this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* BEST BET. Last night's game at Boston didn't end up proving to be too taxing for the Warriors. However, they still had to play. They'll be playing their third road game in the past four days here, the first of those (at Toronto) a considerably tougher game than last night's. They'll be taking on a rested Milwaukee team which upset them here last season - you remember that game - and which comes in believing that it can do the same thing this season. (The Bucks also covered at GS last season, too.) The O/U line for last year's game here was 'only' 205. At 220, or higher, tonight's is considerably higher. That should suit the Bucks just fine. They're 7-2-1 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion once again, earning at least another cover. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers took advantage of a short-handed Wizards team last night, earning a rare win. Don't expect a repeat performance. Off their recent win over Indiana, the 76ers also were forced to play the next day. The result? A 21-point loss. (They also lost by 16 the only other previous time that they played the second of b2b games this season.) Now, in addition to the b2b situation, the 76ers will be forced to play their fifth game in the past seven nights. I expect it to catch up with them. The Wolves couldnt quite get past Charlotte last time out. However, a 26-point win over the Lakers, in their previous game, shows that they're capable of "winning big." With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to do just that, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Cavs are playing well these days. I look for them to stumble tonight though. The Pacers got back on track in a big way last time out. I expect them to carry them momentum into tonight's big game against the Cavs. While its been a slow start, I still believe that this is a very capable Indiana team, one of the few teams capable of beating the Cavs. Tonight, they're catching Cleveland off a hard-fought game vs. Toronto last night, the team that took them to the brink in last year's Eastern Conference Finals and playing their third game in the past four days. The Pacers believe so, too. The purpose of their offseason moves was to give them a team that could compete with Cleveland in the playoffs. Note that the Cavs are an ugly 7-16-1 ATS the last 24 times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, the Pacers were 5-3 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cavs. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight.