Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pistons deserve some credit. They've really been fighting hard lately. However, hard fought losses can take a toll. Mentally and physically. Last night, in what is becoming a familiar routine, the Pistons were up on Miami. Though they hung on to cover, they blew the game. That's b2b very close losses. Both were games against good teams, which they could have won. Again, those type of defeats can be demoralizing. Now, off those "heartbreakers," they play their second game in two days and third in the past four. In fact, this is their eighth game since 11/12. That's a brutal schedule and the tough losses make it worse. The last six of those games were at home but that 8-game stretch started with a 20-point road losses. The Bucks had yesterday off. Prior to that, they'd had b2b "easy" games against the Magic. Last time out, they won by 31. They should be the far fresher team tonight. They already beat the Pistons by 28 in this season's earlier meeting. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on LA. With or without Doncic, I like the Clippers in this one. If the Mavs do get their star back, he may be at less than 100%. He's pretty banged up. The return of a superstar can often also cause the rest of the team to experience a minor letdown. Off b2b losses, there won't be any letdown from the Clippers. The last time that the Clippers had lost two in a row was in late October. They immediately snapped the skid with a 5-point win. The Clippers also lost two in a row to start the season. Again, they stopped the bleeding right there, delivering a 30-point rout of the Suns. In those two "slump-busting" wins, the Clippers allowed just 86 and 94 points. Note that both LA losses came on the road. Last time here, the Clippers won by 14. Last time these teams met, the Clippers won by 15. Expect the Clippers to elevate their defensive intensity and bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Nuggets pounded Dallas, at Denver, on 10/29. At the time, the Mavs were off a game the previous night. The Nuggets were playing with two day's rest in between games. I took advantage of the situation and released a big play on Denver. The Nuggets won 106-75. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though. This time, the Mavs are the home team. This time, the Mavs are the team playing with two day's rest. This time, the Nuggets are the team playing the second of b2b games. This time, I expect the revenge-minded Mavs to take advantage of the situation. The Mavs put it all together last time out, a double-digit win at San Antonio. They also won their last home game by double-digits. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to get some payback. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Needless to say, the Warriors have gotten off to a great start. That's been mostly due to their strong play. However, they've also benefitted from playing the majority of their games at home. This will be just their fourth road game, their first against an Eastern Conference opponent. Note that the Warriors are just 7-14 SU/ATS their last 21, against teams from the Southeast. Its also worth mentioning that the Warriors have a date with the Nets (and former teammate Durant) on deck. Off to their hot start and with that game on deck, it would be easy to look past Charlotte. The Hornets are playing well themselves though and they're off b2b victories. They're right behind the Warriors (#1 and #2 in the league) in terms of points scored per game. In fact, the Hornets' 118.2 ppg average here at home, is #1 in the NBA. (GS averages 115.3 on the road.) The Hornets beat the Warriors by two here last season. Playing with revenge from last week's road loss, look for them to give their guests all they can handle, once again. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets have been won three of their four home games but have been having trouble covering the big pointspreads. That's not an issue for tonight's game though. While the Heat are tough, this is a difficult venue. Denver is 55-23 here the past couple of seasons. The Nuggets beat Miami 123-106 in last year's game here. Jokic had a triple-double, one of six Denver players to score in double-figures. After that game Miami coach Erik Spoelstra noted: "They're a unique team, the way they pass the ball, the way they cut off the ball. They really make you have to concentrate and trust what you do for the entire possession. They were able to exploit a few of those things against us in the second half.'' Look for homecourt to prove significant. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. These are two good teams and both have gotten off to strong starts. They'll meet again at Utah in a week. Armed with that knowledge and knowing they hit the road after this, I expect the Heat to hold serve at home this evening. The Heat lost last time out. Off their only previous loss, they responded with a 17-point win in their next game. They're 19-12 ATS (23-9 SU) the last couple of seasons, when off an upset loss. They're also 5-1 ATS their last six, after scoring 105 or less. The Jazz have been playing quite a few road games to start the season and they play again tomorrow night. Miami gets tomorrow night off. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. More of the same this evening. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. I like how this one sets up for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the 76ers were involved in a hard-fought game against the Bulls. That was on the heels of wins against Portland and Atlanta. Off those big wins and now playing their third game in four days, their fourth game in six days, it should be easy for the 76ers to go through the motions against the Pistons. Keep in mind that Philadelphia also has the Knicks on deck, the team which handed them their most recent loss. All the more reason to look past tonight's game. Additionally, it should be mentioned that the 76'ers are still playing at way less than 100%. The absences should catch up with them in this b2b spot. The Pistons already played the 76'ers tough at Philadelphia and they scored an upset the last time the teams met here. Don't be surprised when it happens again. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I really like how this one sets up for the Hawks. They're at home. (They're 2-0 SU/ATS here on the season, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 117.5 to 95.5.) They had yesterday off. They have tomorrow off. They're angry after getting blown out at Philadelphia on Saturday. They're also still mad from having lost at Washington, to these same Wizards, on Friday. The Wizards had yesterday off. However, they played a double-OT game on Saturday and this is still their fourth game in six days. The Wizards were fortunate that the Celtics were just 2-of-26 from beyond the arc Saturday night. The revenge-minded Hawks will shoot a lot better than that. They're 49-30-1 ATS here the past couple of seasons. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Cavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. They played a late game at LA last night. They challenged Lebron and co. into the fourth quarter; it was a hard-fought game. The Cavs had a 1-point lead with 8-mins remaining. In the end, it was a potentially demoralizing 113-101 setback. Note that the Cavs are just 22-41 ATS the past few years when off a double-digit loss. During that span, they're also 5-15 ATS after playing their previous three on the road. Off last night's tough loss, they're now playing their third road game in the past four days. They'll face a well-rested Phoenix team which is angry about its slow start. The Suns are 21-13 ATS their last 34, when off an upset loss as a favorite. They beat the Cavs by 16 the last time the teams faced each other. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on DENVER. As of this writing, Jokic is questionable. Obviously that's a big deal and the line reflects that. While it would obviously be great if he plays, I won't rely on the Nuggets star being in there. Given the setup, I expect the Nuggets to win, with or without him. The Nuggets have had the past couple of days off, which helps. The Mavs, on the other hand, are off a hard fought win last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four days. They've got their own potential injury issues, too. Porzingis missed last night and remains questionable. Doncic continues to lead the way but he's also turning the ball over, quite a lot. He had seven turnovers in last night's game. The Nuggets got upset in their last game here and they hit the road for three after this. They're still 53-23 here the past 2+ seasons and they're also 17-8 (SU) the past 25 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Schedule in their favor, expect the Nuggets to get it done. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Naturally, I respect the Hawks. Young is already a great player and Atlanta has surrounded him with a solid supporting cast. Still, the Hawks are 0-1 on the road and they're dealing with some injuries. Their only previous road game resulted in an outright loss, at Cleveland, as an 8-point favorite. While the Pelicans are without Zion Williamson, they've gotten better each time out. Their first game was a loss here against the 76ers. They played them tough for the first half but got blown out in the second, losing by 20. Next, was a 16-point loss at Chicago. That was followed by a 7-point loss, as they eked out their first cover. Last time out, the Pelicans played their best game and won 107-98, at Minnesota. The Hawks play tomorrow, the Pelicans do not. With the Hawks 0-4 ATS their last four as a road favorite, grab the points with the Pelicans. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. With the home team boasting a 4-0 SU/ATS record so far, it would be easy to make a case for the Suns. I'm not trying to make an easy case though. I just want to win and I feel that the value lies with the road team. Here are some reasons why. The Suns squandered a golden opportunity in Game 4. That one was theirs for the taking. Booker had a huge game and Giannis did not. Yet, the Bucks still found a way to get the win and cover. Having to win when Giannis was either out of the lineup entirely, or when he's not having a dominant game, has helped the Bucks. They've learned that they can win without him. Middleton has shown that he can be the guy and the Bucks confidence has grown as a result. I also like that they play with two day's rest in between games again. Giannis will benefit from the extra day. Note that the Bucks are now 12-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games while the Suns are just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. While the finals may be new for them, the Bucks have paid their dues in recent seasons. They've been tied in a series a lot more times than the Suns have the past few years and I believe that their playoff experience will serve them well in this critical game. While I like Milwaukee's chances of an outright win, I could also see this one being decided right at the buzzer. Grab the points and look for the Bucks to move to 6-2 ATS their last eight, when tied in a playoff series. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks showed that they were far from done on Sunday. Off that convincing win, their confidence restored, I expect them to "bring their best" once again on Wednesday. Its been my feeling that the Bucks play a lot better, after they know they can beat a team. Prior to Sunday, they'd lost every game this season to Phoenix. Now, however, the Bucks know they can beat this team. I mentioned that the loss of Saric hurt the Suns' depth. The Bucks also now have a blueprint for success - get Ayton in foul trouble. The Bucks are now 8-1 in their home playoff games. The last five of those wins came by 11, 15, 34, 11 and 20 points, all double-digit wins.The Bucks know that they're still essentially in "must win" territory. They can't afford to go down 3-1. Expect them to dig deep and come away with another critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Down 0-2, obviously, the Bucks desperately need this one. As impressive as the Suns have been, I'm not writing off Milwaukee yet. Antetokounmpo had this to say: "I think no matter what we say, we know what the deal is. It's as simple as that. We've got to go back home and do our job. They did their job. We've got to do our job. We've been here before and we were able to get the job done. Hopefully we can put ourselves in position and we can believe in one another and we can play together and we can have fun. We can compete and we can dive on the floor, we can make shots, put ourselves in a position to win the game. But, like, we know what the deal is, man. We got to go back home and protect home." The Suns lost some depth last game, as Saric is out for the series. Also, Torrey Craig went down and is questionable. The Bucks are 7-1 their last eight home playoff games. The last four of those wins came by 11, 15, 34 and 11 points, all double-digit wins. Expect them to dig deep and come away the critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Hawks have enjoyed a great run but I believe it comes to an end tonight. As of this writing, Young is questionable while Giannis is doubtful. While this may not prove to be the case, my guess that Young plays and Giannis doesn't. Young may not be 100% if he does play though and the Bucks have also shown that they can still be a strong team without Giannis. Last game was one of their best. Also, recall their lone win against the Heat last year. That was the game Giannis got hurt. He'd play only 11 minutes or so. Yet, Middleton stepped up and scored 36 and Milwaukee did something it hadn't been able to do when it's star was on the floor. Note that they're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14, when leading in a playoff series and that the Bucks smell the blood in the water tonight. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, knowing a date with Phoenix awaits, I see the Bucks improving on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA for the first half. Both games in Milwaukee saw the Bucks take the lead into the locker-room. In the opening game, the Bucks were up 59-54 at the break. Atlanta came back to win 116-113. Last game, the Bucks jumped all over the Hawks and were up 77-45 by halftime. Off that beating and now back home for the first time in the series, I expect a much stronger start from Trae Young and the Hawks. The last time that the Hawks were off a loss, they responded by winning the first half (at Philadelphia on 6/20) by a score of 48-46. In the NY series, the Hawks won the first game and lost the second. For Game 3, they returned home and were up big (58-44) by halftime. In the Philly series, the Hawks won Game 1 and lost Game 2. They ended up getting blown out when they returned home for Game 3. However, they were still close at halftime. Lets not forget that the Hawks' home record is better than the Bucks' road record. Trae Young noted: "...I've got to do better, and I will do better next game." The Atlanta star added: "It's exciting being able to go back home. We wanted to steal one on the road. We did that. So now (we get) to go home and play in front of our fans in the Eastern Conference Finals. It's going to be loud. It's going to be a lot of people there. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to just going out there and having fun and playing in front of all our Atlanta fans." Energized by the home crowd, expect the Hawks to come out firing, en route to their best "first half" of the series.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting upset in the opener, the Bucks are essentially in must-win mode. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The last time that the Bucks lost, they responded with a 15-point win in their next game. They're 47-15 SU and 38-24 ATS their past 62, when off an upset loss. The Hawks are 2-3 ATS when leading a playoff series, 11-21 ATS in that situation over the years. After they won Game 1 at MGS, they lost Game 2 by nine. After they stole Game 1 at Philadelphia, they lost Game 2 by 16. Look for the Bucks to be all business in this one, evening the series and picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Hawks had their chance and they squandered it. Tonight, I expect the 76ers to show why they were the top seed. This is what they worked so hard for all year. So, that they can play these games at home. Trae Young (probable) has been ridiculous throughout the playoffs. Still, its ultimately a team game and he's up against a superior team. Note that he'll be playing with a sore shoulder, too. While I'm certain Young will play, Bogdanovic is questionable. If he can't play, or is less than 100%, that's a big blow. Remember, Reddish (and Hunter) remains out. The  76ers are 38-27-1 ATS (58.4%) as favorites. I see them pulling away for a double-digit win, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they played when a series was tied. 

I'm playing on LA. After dropping the first two games against Dallas, Kawhi and the Clippers responded with a convincing win in Game 3. Down 0-2 and desperate for a victory, I expect another Game 3 win and cover against Utah. While the Jazz were 23-15 on the road, the Clippers were 27-13 at home. That includes a 16-9-1 ATS (19-7 SU) mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Clippers are still 6-3 ATS their last nine, when trailing in a playoff series. They've been here before and there will be no panic. Last time on this floor, the Clippers won 126-111. Don't count them out yet. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Nets made it look easy in Game 2. The 125-86 beating they put on the Bucks was embarrassing. I'm not ready to just hand them the series though and I don't believe that the Bucks are either. Remember, the Nets were 21-17 on the road while the Bucks were 28-10 at home. The Nets outscored teams by 2.7 points on the road; the Bucks outscored visiting teams by 8.3 points. The home team won all three games in the regular season. The most recent one here saw the Bucks win by seven. Harden remains out. Jeff Green is also out. Note that the Nets were 0-2 ATS this season, after allowing less than 90 points. The last time it happed, they lost outright against the Bulls their next game. The Bucks are 22-8 SU and 18-11-1 ATS the past 30 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Even if they can't come back to win the series, this is their game. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Trae Young and the Hawks have been great in these playoffs. Tonight, however, they're walking into a hornet's nest. The 76'ers have paid their dues the past few years and they feel that this is their time. They earned the #1 seed by playing hard all season. While the Clippers pulled it off against the Mavs, the 76ers absolutely do not want to have to come back from an 0-2 hole, after dropping the first two at home. They're 9-2-1 ATS when off an upset loss and they'll be bringing all they've got tonight. Note that the Hawks are just 6-9 SU/ATS their last 15 when coming off an upset. While Atlanta has shown that it won't be an easy series, I say Philly pulls away and wins this one by double-digits.

I'm playing on LA. As you're likely aware, the road team has won all six games in this series. That's the first time that has ever happened. I say this will NOT be the first time that the road team wins all seven games. The Mavs had their chance to close the deal on Friday and they failed to do so. Kawhi elevated his game and the Clippers elevated their team defense. I believe that they've seized the momentum and I expect to see more of the same in Game 7. In Game 6, LA had its worst 3-point shooting percentage since Game 1. Yet, because of the extra intensity on defense, still found a way. While homecourt may not have meant anything so far, I'd still rather be playing Game 7 at home. So, would the Clippers, who have been tough here all year. Look for Kawhi and co. to dig deep and get it done, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. The Bucks have stumbled in the playoffs in recent years and were upset by the Heat last season. This year, they looked to again be in some trouble in Game 1 against the Heat. However, they weathered the storm and won that game. That seemed to take some of the pressure off, as they dominated the rest of the series. While the Nets are obviously loaded, the Bucks are a tough matchup for them. Milwaukee already won both meetings in May. Also, note that the Nets' last two wins against the Bucks were both by three points or less. The Bucks typically play well with a layoff in between games; they're 12-2 SU the past 14 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. Expect them to give the Nets all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on BOSTON. Admittedly, the Nets have looked very good. Beating them won't be easy. However, lets keep things in perspective. The Nets won both games at home, as they were supposed to. However, they're now on the road; they're road record isn't as good as Boston's home record. The Celtics, 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are very well-coached and battle tested. They're still 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) their last 10 first round playoff games. I backed the Celtics in their last game here; they stepped up and hammered the Wizards by 18 points, a dominant defensive effort. I expect them to be at their very best again Friday and am grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. The Clippers are the more complete team in this matchup and I expect them to remind everyone of that in Game 1. Doncic is a great offensive player. Kawhi Leonard, however, is a champion. The Clippers' biggest star plays defense while the Mavs' top guy often does not. To be fair, Doncic has actually gotten much better at defense. However, he's not in Leonard's class. The Clippers average more points per game than the Mavs and they allow less per game. The Clippers are 19-11 ATS their past 30 against winning teams and 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) their last nine, when playing with three day's rest in between games. While I'll happily take Leonard and George on their home floor against Doncic and Porzingis, its the Clippers' depth which really gives them an edge. They've got the better role players and more options off the bench. The Clippers won and covered in Game 1 in last year's playoffs against the Mavs, a 118-110 win as a -6.5 point favorite. I expect them to pull away for an even bigger win Saturday night. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Everyone is pretty down on the Celtics right now. I feel that sentiment is providing us with excellent value. Yes, Boston is banged-up. Yes, missing Brown is a big deal. That said, so is coaching and playoff experience. This is a battle-tested team, one which knows what the playoffs are all about. While the Celtics are 15-11 SU/ATS in the playoffs the last couple of seasons, the Wizards are 0-0. Yes, some of their players have been in the playoffs before. Not as a team though. In a situation like this one, that matters. So does homecourt. The Celtics have beaten the Wizards four straight times here at Boston. They're 13-2 the past 15 meetings here. While they've obviously been really hot of late, the Wizards are still a sub-500 team on the road. The recent 30+ point comeback against the Spurs shows that this Boston team won't quit. When the smoke clears, I expect the Celtics to be the team still standing. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. True, the Bucks need to beat the Bulls in order to stay alive for the #2 seed. However, the reality is that even if they do beat the Bulls here, they still need the Nets to lose, at home, to the Cavs. Brooklyn is a double-digit favorite for that game. I see one shop currently listing the Nets at -1100 on the moneyline. In other words, the Bucks know that whatever they do this afternoon, its very likely not going to matter. That said, I expect the Bulls to actually be the hungrier team here. Its their last game and they'd like to close it out with a win. That's particularly true when up against a rival which has beaten them by double-digits in both meetings. The Bucks are just 3-10 ATS their last 13 against losing teams. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs played a great game in their home finale (102-94 win over Boston) and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. The Wizards have been playing a lot of close ones of late and they could easily be looking/thinking ahead to bigger games. Washington's last five games were decided by one, two, one, one and four points. Having been hammered by the Wizards, at Cleveland, a couple of weeks ago and now playing with "double-revenge," look for the Cavs to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Wizards kept things close when these teams met a couple of nights ago. They had a chance to win at the buzzer but ended up losing by a point. That opportunity squandered, I expect them to stumble this evening. The fact that the Bulls lost last night takes some pressure off Washington. Also, Westbrook now has the triple-double record and there could be a slight letdown after achieving that. Either way, the Wizards are still without Beal and the hungry Hawks will take advantage. The Wizards are 15-20 on the road and they give up 117.8 ppg on the road. (Over their last five games, they're allowing 132.4 ppg!) The Hawks, on the other hand, are 22-11 at home, allowing 109.8 ppg. The Hawks like these high-scoring up tempo games here as they're 13-6 ATS in games with an O/U line of 230 or more, including a 7-3 SU/ATS mark in home games with a total of 230 or more. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Give the Pelicans credit. It would have been easy for them to quit yesterday. They were down double-digits at halftime, at Charlotte. Playing without their two best players and their playoff prospects flickering. They didn't quit though and rallied all the way back to win. Still, they're up against a tougher opponent tonight and I expect last night's hard-fought effort, along with the injuries, to take a toll tonight. The Grizzlies will show no mercy. They've lost to these Pelicans twice already this season and the most recent was a 144-113 blowout. The Grizzlies, 11-6 ATS when avenging a home loss, will be happy to return the favor. Expect them to improve on those stats with a blowout of their own. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I won with the Hornets in their last game and I like how they rallied late to pull away for the cover. I believe that they're catching the Pelicans at the right time. Not only is New Orleans really short-handed - no Zion, no Ingram (others, too) - but the Pelicans have realized that they won't be making the playoffs. They've fought hard but its not happening. While they deserve credit for fighting as hard as they did, I believe that Friday's 2-point loss at Philadelphia will serve as a gut punch to the Pelicans. The Hornets handled the Pelicans at New Orleans and they're 13-8 ATS when listed as favorites. Expect them to take advantage of their depleted guests this evening, cover the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets got hammered by the Bulls last night. The fact that they're playing the second of b2b games works in our favor, by keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. This is a game that the Hornets need to have. The Magic are a bad team and they're severely banged up. In addition to needing the game and playing at home, the Hornets are more talented and have more depth. They're also 14-8 SU/ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. The Magic are off a 36-point loss of their own, as the depleted roster caught up with them. Look for the determined Hornets to pull away in this one, improving to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams from within their own division. 

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. There's a real possibility that this will prove to be a preview of a first round playoff series. Either way, its hardly a fair fight. The Lakers remain short-handed and the Clippers aren't going to allow them to gain any confidence. While the Lakers are still without some key players, the Clippers have slowly been getting healthier. Though he only played 15 minutes, I like that they got Beverly back last game. The Clippers are the deeper team and he adds to that depth. I also like that Leonard now has a couple games under his belt. I really like how the Clippers rallied to erase a halftime deficit and win last game. They didn't get the cover but it was the type of victory which I feel that they will build momentum from. Factoring in a 104-86 Clipper blowout the last time that these teams met, the Lakers are just 6-13 ATS (4-15 SU) as underdogs. I say the Clippers keep the pedal to the metal and pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. While this is a big game for the Wizards, its a bigger game for the Raptors. In fact, its probably their biggest game of the entire season. A win doesn't guarantee them anything but a loss would be devastating. I believe that they're catching the Wizards at the right time. Yes, Washington has been extremely hot. However, the Wizards just left it all on the floor in a battle at Milwaukee, last night. They ended up losing by a single point. Not all b2b spots are equal and that's the type of loss which will often take a toll. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they lost against the Spurs. Coach Nurse acknowledged how huge this game is for the Raptors: "I would say that’s probably our last chance saloon a little bit, right? I think them getting that one against us would be awful tough for us to recover from ... " The Wizards tend to bring out the best in the Raptors and I expect that to be the case tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Knicks have been on quite the run but I expect a trip to Denver to bring them back down to earth. The Nuggets hammered the Knicks (114-89) when the teams met at MSG. That's bad news for the Knicks as they're generally much better at home. They're 22-11 at home but just 15-17 on the road. The Nuggets are also stronger at home, as this has long been a tough venue to play at. The Nuggets are 19-12 on the road but 24-10 here at home. That includes a perfect 6-0 mark their last six games here. In fact, since late March, the Nuggets are 12-1 here and they're 15-2 here since mid-March. As I said, its a tough venue to play at. Making matters worse for the Knicks is that they're banged up at center. Robinson is out and Noel is questionable. I'll assume that Noel plays but even if he was 100%, which is unlikely, there's no stopping the MVP favorite. Jokic had a double-double in the first meeting and he's topped the 30 mark in b2b games. Look for Jokic to do his thing, the Nuggets staying hot at home, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. As you likely saw, these teams just played last night. The Warriors won 123-108. I don't believe that they're going to be able to beat the Pelicans two nights in a row here though. The last two times that the Warriors played the second of b2b games, they were up against Cleveland and Houston. Though GSW won and covered those games, those teams are both terrible. The Rockets are 16-49, worst in the NBA. The Cavs are 21-43, in a battle for the second worst position in the East. The last time that the Warriors faced a half decent team (Toronto) when playing the second of b2b games, they got crushed by a score of 130-77. Prior to that, they lost 124-108. Going back further finds the Warriors at just 10-22-1 ATS the past 33 times that the played the second of b2b games. The Pelicans, who are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of times that they played the second of b2b games, are 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. Expect them to make the necessary adjustments, up their intensity and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I believe that this is going to prove to be a very tough spot for the Spurs. Not all b2b spots are equal and this is a difficult one for the Spurs. They're off a hard-fought OT loss last night. That was on the heels of another OT heart-breaker, a game where they blew a 30+ point lead. Prior to that, they lost a close one at Miami. I expect those close losses and extra OT minutes to take a toll on them tonight. While its true that the Spurs have played well in the revenge role, they'll get a chance for some revenge (again) on Wednesday, as these teams will face each other again, then. For tonight, I expect the Jazz to take advantage of the scheduling advantage. Utah is 27-4 and 20-11 ATS here this season. The Jazz are outscoring visiting teams by a dominating 117.5 to 103.8 margin here. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The 76ers have won four straight while the Bulls have dropped three in a row. No brainer on Philly, right? Not in my opinion. Rather, this one sets up very nicely for the Bulls, who play with double revenge from a pair of earlier losses. While Chicago had yesterday off, the 76ers are off an extremely hard fought OT win, at San Antonio. They're just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11, when playing the second of b2b games. As for the current streaks ... while the 76ers are 6-9 ATS after three or more consecutive wins, the Bulls are 7-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I lost with the Celtics in their last game, after having successfully played on them in their previous game. Despite the fact that Boston came up a bucket short of covering, I really liked what I saw. The Spurs were practically flawless offensively in the first half. They moved the ball very well and were hitting their shots at a very high level. They'd scored a remarkable 77 points by halftime. It would have been easy for the Celtics to fold; I was worried they'd pull their starters. Tatum wouldn't let that happen though. The Celtics calmly went to work and fought all the way back to force OT. They eventually won 143-140. (If not for a late Patty Mills 3-pointer, the Celtics would have covered.) I believe thats the type of win that they'll build positive momentum from. Even off the non-cover, the Celtics are still 7-4 ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 4-8 ATS their last 12 against teams with a winning record. After this game, the Celtics get a couple of days off. On the other hand, Portland will play at Atlanta tomorrow. The Blazers are playing their fourth straight on the road. Look for the Celtics to leave it all on the floor (again) en route to their third straight win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Bucks stumbled at Houston last night while the Bulls rested. The Bucks are at the end of a road trip and they've got b2b games against Brooklyn on deck. They're also likely to be without their superstar. While he was questionable due to his right ankle last night, Giannis started. However, he quickly turned that ankle and had to leave last night's game. That said, it appears highly unlikely that'll he go tonight. The Bulls have only played two home games since 4/17. They won those games by scores of 106-96 and 108-91. I say they're catching the Bucks at the right time. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Celtics in their last game and I believe that they turned a corner in that one. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. The Spurs are at the end of a 4-game road trip. They lost by five, at Miami, last game. The Celtics lost a close one earlier in the year, at San Antonio and the Spurs have given them problems here over the years. They're going to be motivated to change that tonight. They probably still won't have Walker back but are otherwise relatively healthy. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams with a winning record. Expect them to bring their best effort tonight, en route to picking us up the win and cover. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Hornets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Both teams played and lost yesterday. Both will want to bounce back tonight. The Celtics figure to be hungrier though. Not only have they now lost three straight but one of those losses came against these same Hornets, at Charlotte. Walker remains out. Taytum had last night off and the hope is that he'll be able to return tonight. Obviously, he's a difference maker. However, even in the event he doesn't go, the Celtics have more than enough to take care of business on their homecourt. Keep in mind that Charlotte, 0-4 ATS its last four as a road underdog, continues to play without the likes of Ball and Hayward. When these teams met here a few weeks ago, laying -9.5 points, Boston won by 30. The previous game here saw the Celtics win by 26. In fact, the Celtics are 7-0-1 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight meetings here. Playing with "recent revenge" and looking to snap their skid, expect the highly motivated Celtics to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Grizzlies have been playing well and they beat me yesterday. This is a tough spot for them though and I'm willing to go against them, again. The Grizzlies had a shot to win here recently. Denver eked out a 2-OT win though. The Grizzlies weren't playing the second of b2b games for that one though. They're doing so here, while playing at elevation. Morant played 36 minutes while Valanciunus returned to played 30. They'll feel those minutes tonight, as this has been a brutal stretch. Its the end of a long 7-game road trip. It marks their 14th game since 4/4, a 22-day stretch, 11 of those coming on the road. This road trip started on 4/16. So, this marks their 7th road game in the past 11 days. This is still a tough place to play. Expect the Nuggets to be fresher as they get the "W" and cover the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met here a couple of nights ago. The Grizzlies eked out a 2-point win. They'll also meet again on Wednesday, at Memphis. Not only will the Blazers be on the road for that one, they'll also be playing their second game in two nights. (They play at Indiana, on Tuesday.) In other words, they better win today's game or they could easily risk dropping all three of these games to Memphis. Indeed, off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, including the one at Memphis, this is "must win" territory. That doesn't always means that teams perform, but in this case I believe that it will. The Blazers are 5-3 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss and they're 7-3 ATS when off an "upset" loss in their previous game. Both teams had yesterday off but the Blazers also have tomorrow off, while the Grizzlies will be play a revenge game vs. Denver. Look for the Blazers to leave it all on the floor, en route to an important win and cover.

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Both teams played and lost last night. For the Pistons, it was just another loss. They've got 41 of them, most in the Eastern Conference. For the Spurs, they can't afford another home loss. April has presented the Spurs with a challenging schedule, as they only got to play five home games for the entire month. This is the last of those five and they lost the previous four. They play their next four on the road. Then, they get a single home game - and that's against a tough opponent in the 76'ers - before going back on the road again. In other words, they badly need to take care of business, at home, tonight. The Spurs are a profitable 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss. Even off last night's loss, they're still 14-8 ATS against teams from the East. They beat the Pistons by 10, at Detroit, last month. When the teams last played here, the Spurs won by 27. I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors need to keep winning and they're catching the Nets at the right time. Not only are the Nets off a win last night and playing their sixth game in the past nine days but they're also extremely short-handed. They had only nine players available last night and will likely be in a similar situation tonight. While the Nets are in a tough scheduling spot, the Raptors have had the past two days off. The Nets brings out the best in Toronto; the Raptors have won the past five meetings. Schedule in their favor, look for the Raptors to win their fourth straight overall, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs could use a big win right now and the Kings are the perfect opponent to get it against. Off 9-straight losses, Sacramento is in freefall at the moment. Opportunities to snap the skid are on the horizon, just not yet. Not here. The Mavs won by 19 last time the teams met here, a 130-111 blowout. Having recently faced some top tier defensive teams, they're going to be happy to see Sacramento. Already, in April, Dallas has faced the Knicks twice. NY allows the fewest points in the league and also holds opposing teams to the lowest fg percentage. The Mavs have also faced the Jazz, Bucks and 76ers this month. Those three teams all rank in the top 5, in terms of opposing teams field goal percentage. The Kings, on the other hand, give up more points (118.8 ppg) than any team in the league. The Kings allow opposing teams to connect 49.1% of their field goals. That's also the worst mark in the NBA. This is the type of defense that Dallas can "get healthy" against. Expect the Mavs, 7-5 ATS (8-4 SU) when off an upset loss, to put up a big number and, ultimately, for the Kings to be unable to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Everyone is suddenly really down on the Bulls. They've dropped four in a row and now they're without LaVine. As a result, we're now able to get them as a home underdog. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Bulls were only +2 at Memphis, a few days ago. Now, they're at home, more desperate and playing with revenge, yet we're getting even more points. With all due respect to LaVine, that's providing us with excellent value. That recent 3/12 game, at Memphis, was a tough spot for the Bulls. While both teams were playing the second of b2b games, the Bulls were also playing their fourth road game in five nights. The Grizzlies took advantage. The Bulls are back home now though and they had yesterday off. They've still got plenty without LaVine and I expect their very best effort. Look for the Bulls to bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their past 10, after having lost their previous three or more games. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Time change due to the protests. Assuming that doesn't stop the game from being played, that means we get some afternoon basketball. Either way, I was going to like the setup for the T-Wolves. We're getting some extra value due to the fact that the played yesterday. However, yesterday's game was a blowout loss where Towns didn't play. Towns is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he should be back and good to go tonight. (Yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of his mother's passing and he attended a memorial in her honor.) So, I'm not bothered by the fact that they played yesterday. It should also be noted that the last time that the Wolves played the second of b2b games, they went on the road, at Philly, and stayed within single digits, as 14 point underdogs. Also, it was exactly one month ago when they beat Portland outright here, when playing the second of b2b games. As for the Bucks, they play at Atlanta tomorrow. Wihile he did return to practice yesterday, with Giannis still a bit banged up, its not out of the question that they save him for that game. Either way, this is a tough spot. That game at Atlanta tomorrow will be the final game of a 3-game road trip. However, if you consider that the Bucks only played one home game, prior to that trip, and that was preceded by six road games out West, I feel that the Bucks could well be getting road weary. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Wolves have been far more competitive lately. Expect them to give the Bucks all they can handle this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Bulls in their last game and I believe that this will prove to be another good spot to do so. The Bulls have a number of banged-up players, who have been playing through nagging minor injuries. Guys like LaVine and Markkanen. Of course, it didn't stop LaVine from scoring 50 last time out. Still, this has been a long road trip and I believe that the heavy minutes are starting to wear on them. I thought that was evident when they faded late in Friday's loss. Now, they're playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip, one which wraps up tomorrow night, at Memphis. While that may not seem like a "long road trip," consider that the Bulls only played one home game before the trip and that one was preceded by four road games. That being the case, the Bulls actually haven't played in the same city for b2b games for roughly three weeks, since they did so on 3/22 and 3/24. Meanwhile, Minnesota is quietly playing well right now. Last time out, the T-Wolves went on the road and took the Celtics to OT. They've won three of their last four home games, including each of their past two, wins against the Kings and Knicks. Overall, they're averaging 122 points their last five games, after topping the 135-mark on b2b occasions. I say they give the Bulls all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the ouright win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks had their win streak snapped on Wednesday. Prior to that, they'd won four straight, covering in each. Wednesday's game was their second game in two nights and it caught up to the Hawks. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though. While the Hawks had yesterday off to recover, the Bulls are off a win over the Raptors. Note that LaVine and others were banged up going into that game but still played fairly heavy minutes. The Bulls have won three of 10, when playing the second of b2b games. They're also 0-3 SU/ATS the past three times that they'd won their previous three games. The Hawks pounded the Bulls, at Chicago, earlier in the season. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to handle them once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Tough spot for the Jazz as they're off a hard fought OT loss, at Phoenix. Don't expect the Blazers, who had yesterday off, to show them any sympathy. They haven't forgotten that the Jazz embarrassed them, at Portland, in their very first game of the season. They're also anxious to bounce back from Tuesday's blowout loss to the Clippers. Note that the Blazers are 4-2 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss and 6-4 ATS (7-3 SU) when off a double-digit loss. The O/U line is 230 or higher, at most shops, as of this writing. That suits the Blazers fine as they're also 10-4 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. (The Jazz are 2-4 ATS in games with an O/U line of 230 or more.) While most might assume the Jazz play well off an upset loss, they're just 5-7 ATS in that situation. Portland's last two visits here were decided by three and six. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Both teams come in playing well. However, I expect it to be the Heat which continue to do so. The Heat are a profitable 18-6 ATS their last 24 against teams from the Southwest. One of those losses came at Memphis, a few weeks ago. Morant dribbled the length of the floor with seconds left to break a tie. That tough loss triggered a 6-game SU/ATS skid for the Heat. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten and they absolutely want to avoid a repeat performance. Since the slide, the Heat have responded by going 4-0 SU/ATS their last four. During that span, they're allowing a mere 96.5 ppg, holding two of those opponents below 90. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have allowed opponents to hit triple-digits in 10 straight games. The Heat have had two days off and they also get tomorrow off. (The Grizzlies have had one day off and they play at Atlanta, tomorrow.) Expect them to leave it all on the floor tonight, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Laying this many points on the road is asking a lot of the Pelicans right now. They're banged-up. They've lost two in a row. Their last two wins both came by single-digits. They're only 7-14 SU on the road. Only once, in all of 2021, have they won a road game by more than six points. That was back in early February. While the Rockets have indeed been pretty bad, the Pelicans are just 6-14 ATS their last 20 against losing records. The teams have split a pair of games at New Orleans. Playing at home and catching them at the right time, look for the Rockets to give the Pelicans all they can handle here, picking up the cover with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Kings beat up on the Spurs here on Monday night. Don't expect it to happen again. Off that 132-115 victory, note that the Kings are just 2-7 ATS their last nine, after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Off that loss, note that the Spurs are 63-33-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. The Spurs are 7-4 ATS their last 11, off a double-digit loss. Needless to say, they're going to be highly motivated here. On Monday, the Kings hit 50% of their three point shots (8 of 19) compared to the Spurs' 10 of 27 (37%) mark. Also, the Kings got to the line 25 times compared to San Antonio getting to the line 14 times. I don't expect the Kings to have those edges in this one. Rather, look for the revenge-minded Spurs to make the necessary adjustments en route to bouncing back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors didn't trade Kyle Lowry after all. I expect that to be a big relief and I look for them to make a determined push for the playoffs. While Powell (traded for Trent and Hood) was doing a lot, its Lowry who remains the heart and soul of the team. For now. He was +42 while on the floor last game. Siakim has admittedly been inconsistent. However, he's streaky and when he's on - as he is right now - he's very tough to stop. (Over his last two games, Siakim has 48 points and 18 rebounds.) The Suns beat the Raptors earlier in the season. However, Toronto was off to a terrible start at the time and that game was at Phoenix. Off a destruction of Denver last time out and now in their (temporary) "home," I expect the Raptors to get some payback. They're 8-5 ATS their last 13 in the 'revenge' role. Relieved from the deadline having passes, expect them to improve on those stats with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic have quietly been playing pretty well this month, particularly here at home. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value here. Through eight March games, Orlando is 5-3 ATS. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark at home and a 2-2 ATS record on the road. A closer look at the four March home games shows that even the lone 'non-cover' was actually just a 3-point SU loss. Last game here, the Magic beat Brooklyn outright. They also played very close games here against Miami, Atlanta and Dallas. None of those teams beat them by more than seven. The Nuggets are off a loss last time out and before that, they only beat Chicago by four. These teams will meet again in less than two weeks, at Denver. That one will set up favorably for the Nuggets, as the Magic will be off a late game at Utah the night before and playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip. This one, however, sets up nicely for the home team. Look for the Magic to continue their solid homecourt play this month, giving the Nuggets all they can handle with a great shot at the upset. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves aren't favored often. However, they're favored here for good reason and I expect a win and cover. OKC is off a game yesterday. This will be Thunder's fifth game in the past eight days and fourth straight on the road. They're banged up and I expect it to catch up with them tonight. With the star center back, the T-Wolves have quietly covered four of their past six. That includes outright wins over the Pelicans, Blazers and Suns. Well-rested and playing arguably their best basketball of the season, venue in their favor, expect the T-Wolves to take advantage of this favorable scheduling situation. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. This is the first of two straight between these teams. They'll meet again Thursday. I believe that the Blazers are going to be the hungrier team for this one. I also feel that they're offering excellent value. Yes, the Pelicans have looked good their last couple of games. However, keep in mind that they're still only 5-12 on the road. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 11-7 at home. Thursday will mark the first of b2b games for the Blazers, as they play Dallas the next night. The Pelicans get a couple days off after Thursday. I mention that to emphasize the importance of winning tonight for the Blazers. Off a loss and having dropped two of three since the break, Portland needs to take care of business tonight. Note that Portland is 4-2 ATS off an upset loss. As for the Pelicans, they're 5-14 SU/ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game and that includes an 0-4 SU/ATS mark after scoring 130 or more. Blazers roll. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played last night. However, one must always keep in mind that not all b2b spots are equal. In this case, (most of) the Pacers had the All Star Break off, prior to last night. So, they're aren't playing a third game in four nights or anything. Rather, they had a chance to shake off the rust and they should be in good shape tonight. Note that Chris LeVert was held out last night but will make his debut for the Pacers tonight. Even in limited minutes, he provides a boost and some fresh legs. The Pacers are going to be hungry to snap their skid and to avenge an earlier home loss, to these same Suns. While the Suns are obviously no slouches, Indiana has some more really tough games coming up. That makes finding a way to win here that much more urgent. Sabonis is a monster and Brogdon is off a monster game of his own. Look for the revenge-minded Pacers to give their hosts all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis got a chance to play Wednesday. The Grizzlies looked great, too. I said this of them before that game: "... They can score ... They put up 125 against these same Wizards before the break and are averaging 123 ppg their last three ... " Sure enough, the Grizzlies scored 127. It was an impressive team win, along with a dominant performance (29/20!) from center Valančiūnas. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Nuggets haven't played in a long time. Their last game was on 3/4. Note that Denver is just 4-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, the Nuggets got blown out by 21. I also like that the Grizzlies have tomorrow off while the Nuggets return home for a big game against Dallas tomorrow. Including a 104-96 win over the Nuggets the last time the teams faced each other, the Grizzlies are 24-11-1 ATS their last 36 against teams from the Northwest. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The break figures to be just what the Bucks needed. Rested and refreshed, I expect them to blow out the Knicks. Needless to say, the Bucks haven't forgotten that the Knicks pounded them, at MSG. That 130-110 beating was one of the low points of the first half and the Bucks will be anxious to have their revenge. Note that Milwaukee was favored by 13 points for that game, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're working with a lower line. Value. The Bucks have beaten the Knicks seven straight times here at Milwaukee. The last three of those wins, all Milwaukee covers, came by 26, 44 and 16 points. This season, the Knicks average 101.3 ppg on the road while the Bucks average 118.6 ppg at home. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting blown out last game, the Bucks are going to be all busness tonight. They're 33-17 ATS (38-12 SU) the past 50 times that they were off an upset loss. They're also 17-7-1 (19-6 SU) their last 25, after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies typically can't keep up when high-scoring guests come to town. They're 3-8 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. When the line clmbs to 230 or more, they're 0-3 SU/ATS. In this case, the Bucks average 119.5 ppg on the road while the Grizzlies average 108.5 ppg at home. Look for the "angry" Bucks to put up a really big number and for the Grizzlies to be unable to keep up.

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers badly need a victory and a date with the Cavs figures to be just what the doctor ordered. When these teams met earlier this season, on 12/31, Indiana won by a score of 119-99.  Yes, the Cavs would like to avenge the earlier loss. However, they're just 6-16 ATS the last 22 times that they played with revenge from an earlier loss. Off their 101-90 win over the Rockets, note that Cleveland is 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times it allowed 90 or fewer points in its previous game. I expect a big effort from the Pacers and am laying the points. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Knicks have played fairly well. Last night's win brought them to 500 on the season. In the East, that's good enough to have them tied with the Raptors, with the fourth best record. Only Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee have been better. The Knicks are still 7-10 on the road though and this is a tough spot. While they were leaving it all on the floor, in eking out the 3-point win at MSG, the Pistons were resting, waiting for them. The Pistons know that they'll face these same Knicks at MSG, where NY is 10-7, in a few days. They also know that they're 3-15 on the road (compared to 6-9 at home) and that they won't have the schedule in their favor for that 3/4 game. That makes taking care of business this evening imperative. Note that the Knicks are 0-3 ATS in 2021, when playing on the road, after playing the previous day. Losses were at Chicago, Sacramento and Charlotte. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Pistons to move to 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division teams. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. This one sets up nicely for the home underdog. The Jazz are off a rare loss last night. While they were battling, the Magic were resting, waiting for them. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Jazz will be playing their third game in four nights. Having just facing the defending Eastern Conf. champs last night, after having faced the defending NBA champs in their previous game, its going to be hard for the Jazz to "get up" for the lowly Magic. Mitchell and Gobert had 36 and 37 hard minutes last night while Conley and O'Neal chipped in roughly 33 each. It wouldn't be a shock to see someone get the night off, though I'm certainly not going to count on that. Either way, I look for the minutes to cactch up with them and won't be surprised when the Magic are in this the entire way. 

I'm playing on OKC. The Hawks are a good young team, capable of beating the likes of Boston, as they did last time out. That was at home though and they're only 6-9 on the road. They're also just 1-4 SU/ATS when off an 'upset' victory. Off the big win over Boston and with a pair of games against Miami on deck, I won't be surprised if they get surprised tonight. The Thunder play hard nearly every night and are off a victory over the Spurs. They've allowed 108 or fewer points in four straight games. The Thunder are 7-5 ATS in non-conf. games this season and 14-9 ATS their last 23 against Southeast teams. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Wizards are at the end of a Western Conf. road trip. They're already looking forward to getting home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, take to the road after this game. They're going to be anxious to to pick up a victory before they go. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Wizards upset them, at Washington, earlier. The Nuggets are 53-33 SU and 47-37-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the revenge role. In terms of line value, consider that Denver was favored by eight points, at Washington, just over a week ago. The Nuggets also lost at Washington last season. However, the game here at Denver saw them win by 13. I say the Nuggets pull away for another double-digit win on Thursday. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Pacers have had some unexpected time off. One game got ppd due to weather. Another got ppg due to Covid-testing. It wasn't an issue on the Pacers' end though. So, they've been able to keep practicing, while also getting some much needed rest. The ability to hold several days of practice just doesnt happen during this short, compacted season. I expect them to make the most of their unique break and look for them to be refreshed for tonight's game. On the other hand, the Warriors are off a win at MSG last night. Curry led the way with another great game. However, keep in mind that he'd missed his previous game, feeling disoriented. Two games in two days could catch up with them. Either way, I like how the Pacers match up against this team. They handled them at Golden State and I look for another win and cover for the Pacers tonight. 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. With the Wizards on a bit of a roll and the Lakers short-handed, we're getting a far lower line than we normally would. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wizards still have issues and the Lakers still have Lebron. Speaking of Lebron, he's going to be highly motivated to show that he can still get it done, sans Davis. The last time that the Lakers dropped two in a row, they responded by beating Boston, on the road. The last time that they faced the Wizards, they won by 22. Lebron had 23 points and 11 assists and took the fourth quarter off. Look for him to lead the way once again, the champs bouncing back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. After a dreadful homestand, the Kings will be happy to hit the road. In fact, they've been better on the road overall this season. They're 7-3 ATS (5-5 SU) through 10 games, away from Sacramento. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) at home. While the Kings had last night off, the Bulls are off a hard-fought loss at Philadelphia. The Kings know that this road trip gets a lot tougher after this, as their next two games are at Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Armed with this knowledge, they know that they desperately need to stop the bleeding tonight. They won big here (98-81 with a line of 2) last season. Schedule in their favor, I expect another win and cover this evening. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Bucks are feeling like I am right now. Mad. Angry about losing, enough is enough. The skid ends here. Not only have the Bucks dropped an unheard of five in a row, one of those losses came against these same Thunder. The Bucks are still 16-7-1 ATS (18-6 SU) the past 24 times that they were off a double-digit loss though, 4-2 ATS this season. During that span, they're also 32-17 ATS (37-12 SU) when off an "upset" loss. Playing the second of b2b games may be just what the doctor ordered, too. The last time that the Bucks played their second game in two nights resulted in a 124-99 victory. Speaking of "blowouts," the Bucks also struggled at OKC (won by 2, laying -9) a bit last season. However, when the teams met here, almost exactly one year ago, the Bucks crushed the Thunder by 47 points. Look for them to "get healthy" at OKC's expense tonight. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Embid was a late scratch on Monday. That surely didn't help the 76ers' cause at Utah. As of this writing, it appears promising (currently probable) that Embid will be back for tonight's game. However, with or without him, the 76ers have more than enough to take care of Houston. Indeed, a home game vs. the Rockets is much different than a road game against the Jazz. The Rockets have dropped six straight games. They're getting outscored by a 120.4 to 101.4 average score over their last five games, four of those five resulting in double-digit losses. The 76ers have the best home record in the East and are tied for the fewest home losses in the league. Expect a highly motivated effort and for them to win this one in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz have been on an extended run and continue to play well. However, tonight, they'll be without Conley and taking on a very good Philadelphia team, one which is anxious to close out its trip on a winning note and one which always plays them tough. Note that the 76ers have the best record in the East, the only Eastern Conference team currently winning more than 60% of its games. Also, note that the Jazz are 0-4-1 ATS their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The 76ers beat the Jazz by nine at Phily last season and they lost by only two, here at Utah. Including those results, the 76ers are 6-0 ATS the last six in the series, the 2-point loss and five outright wins. With the 76'ers last three games all decided by single digits, this figures to be another close one. Look for the 76ers to give the Jazz all they can handle with a great shot at another outright win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. I like what I've seen from the Mavs recently. They've won four straight and are getting stronger. Over their last five games, they're averaging a whopping 127.6 points. After eking out wins over Golden State and Minnesota, they rallied from a big deficit to beat Atlanta two games ago. Then, last time out, they pounded the Pelicans, putting up 143 points in the process. Doncic and Porzingis were unstoppable. The Blazers have also been playing well, as they're off three straight wins. Those were all at home though. Their last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at MSG. Though the Blazers beat them in the bubble last summer, the Mavs won by eight when the teams played here at Dallas. Expect another win and cover this evening, the Mavs improving to 5-2 ATS when off a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have started to win, they just haven't been covering. Tonight, however, a SU win should also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. I really liked what I saw from the Mavs last game. They were down big to Atlanta but rallied to win the game by a point. While that wasn't enough for the cover, it was enough to build positive momentum for this game. I successfully played against the Pelicans in their last game, a double-digit loss at Chicago, and noted that they haven't been playing well on the road. The Mavs have dominated the Pelicans franchise here for years and they did so again last season. Expect homecourt to prove significant as the Mavs win their fourth straight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have both the schedule and the venue in their favor. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value as home underdogs. While the Bulls had last night off, the Pelicans are off a big win against Houston. While that game wasn't entirely taxing for the starters, due to its blowout nature, it was still a revenge win against a divisional opponent. Houston had hammered them at New Orleans, just over a week earlier. Thats the type of win that could have them ripe for a letdown, when facing a non-conf. team like Chicago, particularly with another divisional opponent (Dallas) on deck. The Pelicans are 1-3 their last four road games and that lone victory came by a single point. Even off last night's win, they're still just 4-7 ATS as favorites. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 11-5 ATS as underdogs. The Bulls are also 3-1 SU/ATS when off an upset loss. Last night, the Pelicans caught Houston playing its second game in two days. Shoe on the other foot, look for the Bulls to score the upset. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. These teams met on Thursday. The Warriors were pretty short-handed and played with a small lineup. That didn't stop them from embarrassing the Mavericks by a score of 147-116. That wasn't just a regular loss, coach Carlisle calling it a "difficult lesson." Desperate to avoid seeing their season slip away and also highly motivated to avenge that blowout, I absolutely expect to see the best of the Mavs on Saturday night. Note that Dallas has dominated the Warriors in recent seasons, Thursday notwithstanding. The previous four games saw the Mavs win by scores of 124-97, 141-121, 142-94 and 126-91. Oubre scored a career high (40) in points on Thursday and that won't happen again. Doncic will be on a mission from the opening tip. While things might seem bleak for the Mavs at the moment, they've got a stretch of winnable games ahead. I expect them to start by taking care of business in this one, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers suffered a 4th quarter collapse against the 76ers last time out. I lost with them in that game and obviously wasn't happy about it. However, with the schedule and venue in their favor, I'm more than willing to give them another chance tonight. While Indiana had last night off, the Grizzlies are off a road win at San Antonio. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will also be their third game in the past four days. That had been preceded by an extended layoff, so the sudden three games in four days may prove a bit of a shock to the system. Either way, I expect the Grizzlies to have their hands full against an angry Indiana team. The Pacers swept the season series last year. The most recent resulted in a double-digit win with all five starters scoring at least 14 points. Brogdon had 19 while Sabonis had an 18/14/8 stat-line before fouling out. Off the painful loss to the 76ers and knowing they've got a tough game on deck tomorrow, the Pacers won't squander this opportunity. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I really like how this one sets up for the Pelicans. The Kings have have already a successful road trip. However, they lost their last game by a single point and this is the final game of the trip. I think they could easily get caught thinking about what might have been and/or about the return trip home. The Pelicans lost last time out, after having won their previous two. Having struggled in January, they know they absolutely need to take advantage of the fact the Kings are at the end of a trip. Note that NO is 2-0 SU/ATS its last two home games against the Kings, 6-2 SU/ATS its past eight. The Pelicans are 20-13 ATS their last 33, off an upset loss. With the Kings just 9-15 ATS (5-19 SU) their last 24 road games, when the O/U line was 230 or more, look for the Pelicans to deliver the win and cover. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Thunder generally fight hard. However, they won't outwork their opponent tonight and they're overmatched in the talent department. The Nets are going to be highly motivated; they haven't forgotten that these same Thunder upset them at Brooklyn earlier. (The Thunder also won at Brooklyn in 2020.) The Nets followed that 1/10 loss by winning four in a row. Now, they've also won three in a row. Those have been close wins though and they're going to be itching for a "feel good blowout" against a team that upset them. Note that they're 59-43-1 ATS in the revenge role the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bucks are in an angry mood. Even with the loss to the Lakers, they're still an outstanding 31-13 ATS when off an 'upset' loss. While the Bucks have been facing top tier teams like the Lakers and Nets, the Hawks have been taking on the likes of the Pistons and T-Wolves. The Bucks come in rested; they've had the past two days off. They also have the next two days off. In other words, the Hawks will have their full attention. The Bucks won all three of last season's games by a minimum of eight points. The most recent meeting saw them hammer the Hawks by 26 points. They were up 63-40 by halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I'm expecting another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO.The Kings have both the schedule and the venue working in their favor here. While they had yesterday off, the Knicks are off a late game, at Golden State. Desperate for a victory and knowing that their next six games will come on the road, I expect the Kings to take advantage of the favorable situation tonight. The Kings have won two of three games against Eastern Conf. teams this season, most recently knocking off the Pacers. They're 24-17 SU off a double-digit loss, the past 2+ seasons, going 25-16 ATS. That's a great record, particularly when compared to the rest of their games during that span. Expect the Kings to leave it all on the floor, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I won with the 'over' when these same teams faced each other on Tuesday. For tonight's rematch, I feel that the value lies with the visitors. Having dropped Tuesday's game, the Pelicans are coming in angry and motivated. While the Jazz got the better of them Tuesday, the previous six meetings between the Jazz and Pelicans had all been decided by 10 points or less, two of the previous three decided by a single bucket. The Pelicans are already 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. Off a double-digit loss against Miami, they bounced back to beat the Spurs. Off a double-digit loss against the Suns, they bounced back to crush the Thunder. Off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, they bounced back for a win and cover at Sacramento. Off Tuesday's double-digit loss, look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. A lot of people seem to be down on Denver these days. I like what I've seen from the Nuggets recently though and feel that they're offering excellent value tonight. Sure, the Jazz are going to be motivated for some revenge from the playoffs. The Nuggets are going to be every bit as hungry though; as they're currently looking up at the Jazz in the division standings. 

I played on the Nuggets in their last game, noting the following: "...I believe that the Warriors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Denver lost at Brooklyn on Tuesday. However, that loss notwithstanding, the Nuggets have been playing well of late. Jokic is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he's found his groove. He was two rebounds and three steals short of achieving a "quadruple double" last time out. He entered that game as just the second player in NBA history to average 20/10/10 in his team's first 10 games. He's going be an unstoppable force again, tonight. Denver has still won four if its past six games and responded to each of its last two losses with a double-digit win next time out. While both teams had yesterday off, note that the Nuggets also have tomorrow off while the Warriors play at Phoenix. In fact, the Nuggets have the next two nights off. In other words, there's no holding back in this one. The Nuggets are 66-22 when listed as the home team the past 2+ seasons..."

Sure enough, the Nuggets came through with a double-digit win. Sure enough, Jokic delivered a triple-double. (He'd finish with a 23/14/10 line while adding three steals.) As I pointed out in the previous writeup, the Nuggets had two nights off, after the GSW game. So, they're coming in well-rested. The Jazz also had yesterday off. However, they played the previous day and this will mark the ninth time in a row that they played in a different city than their previous game was played in. A home game to start the year on 1/1. Then six straight on the road. Then, another home game. Now, back on the road. After this, the Jazz will finally get a "homestand," as they'll play six straight at Utah. For tonight, however, I expect them to potentially be a bit road weary. The Nuggets are 20-8 the past 28 times that they played with two day's rest. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Playing their second game in two nights, the Blazers stumbled against the Pacers on Thursday. Prior to that, however, they'd won four straight, covering three of those. Tonight, its the Blazers' opponent which is playing its second game in two days. While Portland had Friday off, Atlanta played at Utah. The Hawks lost by five, at home against Cleveland, the only previous time that they played the second of b2b games this season. As for the Blazers, they know they need to take advantage of games against teams from the East, particularly when catching them at home. While they're only 1-2 in three against Eastern Conf. opponents so far this season, the Blazers are 40-20 (SU) against them the past 2+ seasons. The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. The Hawks won by 12 at Atlanta while the Blazers won by 11, here at Portland. Venue and schedule in their favor, expect another win and cover for the Blazers here. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Despite dealing with some Covid issues, the Mavs have been rolling of late. Tonight, however, I expect their run to come to an abrupt start. As of this writing, the Mavs still have a number of players questionable, due to quarantine protocol etc. However, even at full strength, they'll be no match for what they're about to run into. When you don't lose that many games, you tend to remember the losses. The Bucks haven't forgotten that the Mavs upset them here last season. Milwaukee was laying -10 for that 12/16 game. The Mavs came in hot while the Bucks had an off night. That 120-116 upset snapped an 18-game winning streak for the Bucks. So, yes, they remember it. The fact that the Mavs also beat them "in the bubble" will further add to their anger tonight. The Mavs have been playing the majority of their games on the road so far this season and it figures to catch up with them here. The Bucks are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season. Even with last year's loss to the Mavs, they're 72-14 SU and 52-33-1 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. The Mavs average 109 ppg while the Bucks average more than 120. Payback time. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I believe that the Warriors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Denver lost at Brooklyn on Tuesday. However, that loss notwithstanding, the Nuggets have been playing well of late. Jokic is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he's found his groove. He was two rebounds and three steals short of achieving a "quadruple double" last time out. He entered that game as just the second player in NBA history to average 20/10/10 in his team's first 10 games. He's going be an unstoppable force again, tonight. Denver has still won four if its past six games and responded to each of its last two losses with a double-digit win next time out. While both teams had yesterday off, note that the Nuggets also have tomorrow off while the Warriors play at Phoenix. In fact, the Nuggets have the next two nights off. In other words, there's no holding back in this one. The Nuggets are 66-22 when listed as the home team the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on LA. The Bulls are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Chicago is at the end of a road trip. Off b2b really close losses, the banged-up Bulls are thinking about getting home. The Clippers also lost last time out. They're already 3-0 SU/ATS off a loss though. They won those three games by an average of 12 points, too. While they did manage to upset the Clippers last season, something LA hasn't forgotten, the Bulls are now 15-42 SU in games against Western Conf. teams, the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Clippers are 37-17 SU against teams from the East. Expect LA to improve on those stats this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. These teams met here Sunday. The Lakers won by 14. The champs haven't been home since last year though and this is the final leg of their road trip. I believe that they could easily overlook Memphis tonight. Note that LA is 9-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, after playing its previous three on the road. On the other hand, the Grizzlies play with recent revenge and absolutely don't want to be "swept" in this 2-game series. Still seeking their first home win, they're going to be hungry and determined tonight. While the Lakers are 1-2 ATS off a double-digit win, the Grizzlies are 2-1 ATS off a double-digit loss. I expect the Grizzlies' best effort and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I successfully backed the Nuggets in their last game here, as they got on track with a big win over Houston. They'd follow it up with a loss in a b2b spot, on the road, the following night. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect another win and cover to ring in the year. While the Nuggets had last night off, the Suns are off a hard-fought win at Utah. The only previous time that the Suns played b2b games this season, their opponent was in the same situation. That's not the case here. Not only will the Suns be playing b2b games, they'll also be playing three games in four nights and five in the past seven. Facing a motivated and rested Denver team, expect it to all catch up to the Suns tonight. Nuggets roll. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Rockets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Nuggets are already  0-2 on the season, both those losses here at home. They know that their next game is on the road and that they won't play another home game until "next year." That will provide them with a sense of urgency and I expect them to take it out on the Rockets. As you likely know, Harden wants out. That's made things difficult, to say the least. Of course, even when the Rockets were fully functional, they had trouble winning here. While the Rockets have beaten the Nuggets eight straight times at Houston, they've lost their last three games here at Denver, losing by an average of more than 10 points. The Nuggets were 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS when off a double-digit loss, the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win of their own. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While its important not to over-react to one game, its also important not to ignore what just happened. In this case, the Warriors looked terrible in Tuesday's opener, at Brooklyn. Thompson is out. Green missed the opener and may well miss this one. If he does play, he's not likely to be 100%. Without Green in there to take some pressure off him, Wiggins really struggled in the opener. Curry can't do it alone. The Bucks are thinking nothing less than a championship this season. Still stinging from last season's playoff disappointment, this is their chance to remind the world how good that they can be. They should be improved, too, having added Jrue Holliday to their already stacked lineup. Bucks make a statement and win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on LA. This series is over. The Lakers know it and deep down, though they would never admit it, I believe that the Heat know it, too. The Heat played a great Game 4 and it still wasn't enough. As I expected, the Lakers elevated their defensive intensity, holding the Heat to a mere 96 points. Specifically, Davis slowed down Butler, a huge factor not seen in the boxscore. Unfortunately, the Lakers only managed 102 themselves, which meant that a "meaningless" Miami 3-pointer in the final second of the game, cost them the cover. That shot aside, I like that I saw from the Lakers. Now, they smell the blood in the water. Its been a long time in the bubble and they're anxious not to extend that time any longer. The Lakers got "only" 50 combined points from James and Davis in Game 4. Those two superstars are both capable of getting that many themselves. I expect the two stars to combine for more than 50 in this one, the Lakers continuing their dominant defense, en route to a win, cover and title. 

I'm playing on LA. I really didn't think that the Heat would go down without a fight. Jimmy Butler made sure that they didn't. All Butler did, in willing his team to victory, was put up the third 40-point-triple-double in NBA Finals history. Butler would finish with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. As you know, the series now sits at 2-1. It wasn't just Butler, the entire Miami team outworked the Lakers. That said, the Heat can't expect a super-human effort from Butler every night. The Lakers have received their wake-up call and they're not going to get outworked again. The last thing that they want to do is give this young Miami team more hope than it has. I expect Lebron, Davis and co. to be entirely focused from the opening tip and I look for them keep the pedal to the metal, in terms of intensity, the entire way. Butler will get points but the Lakers will make sure he doesn't have a repeat performance from Game 3. This year's Heat are just 4-11-1 ATS when off an upset win. Going back further finds Miami at only 20-38-3 ATS when off a double-digit win. Lay the points and expect James and Davis to deliver a statement. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. This is it for the Heat. They obviously can't afford to go down 0-3. (No team has come back from down 3-0.) They need to leave everything on the floor in this game and thats exactly what I expect them to do. Clearly, the Lakers are an excellent team. Still, they played a near-flawless game and couldn't pull away from the Heat. The Heat actually outscored the Lakers by four points in the second half and finally started playing the type of defense (held LA to 21 in the 4th) that they need to, in order to compete. They obviously aren't going to be able to shut down Davis entirely. Still, the expected return of Bam Adebayo, their best defender, will at least help slow him down. Still 12-4-1 ATS in these playoffs, look for the Heat to build off their strong second half in Game 2, playing their best game of the series and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on LA. The Heat have been on a great run and have taken down some good teams. They haven't faced a team with the size, talent and playoff experience like the Lakers though. Indeed, the Lakers are a far more complete team than the ones which Miami has faced and they come in on a mission. Both teams won big in closing out the Conf. Finals. LA beat Denver by 10 while Miami defeated Boston by a dozen. However, the Heat are just 11-16 ATS off a double-digit win, an ugly 20-37-3 ATS (24-36 SU) their past 60 in that situation. During that span, the Lakers were a much better 35-26-3 ATS (45-19 SU) off a double-digit win. The Lakers took both regular season meetings, the wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. Expect Lebron, Davis and co. to start things with a statement win. 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Nuggets continue to hang around and they deserve credit for their Game 3 win. Still, this is not the Clippers that they're playing. These Lakers are an extremely talented and determined team, on a mission to get to and win the Finals. The Nuggets got a huge Game 3 from Grant but they can't count on a repeat performance from him and lack a reliable third scoring option. The last time that the Lakers lost, they responded by winning six straight games, the first five of those victories all coming by a minimum of eight points. Off their prior loss before that, the Lakers responded with four straight wins. All victories came by a minimum of eight points. Expect the Lakers to respond once again, delivering a statement double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on LA. The Nuggets have surprised a lot of people, myself included. This is an entirely different matchup though. I expect their exhausting comeback against the Clippers to catch up with them against a rested and determined Laker team. Lebron and co. watched what Denver did to the Clippers and will not be taken by surprise or come in thinking this will be easy. Expect the Lakers to be fully focused, determined to seize control of this series right out of the gate. Since these teams played a close one on 8/10, the Lakers have won eight games. All eight of those victories came by a minimum of eight points. I expect a double-digit statement win in this one. 

I'm playing on LA. Give the Nuggets a lot of credit for hanging around. However, I believe that the Clippers will prove to be too much for them today. LA is a ridiculous 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS when off an upset loss. Friday's loss was just the sixth for LA since returning to play. The Clippers followed up all five previous losses with a victory and they won those five games by an average of 17 points, three of those coming by 13 or more. They're the more complete and talented team and I see them pulling away for another double-digit win this afternoon.