Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams just met at Atlanta, on 12/30. The Hawks won that one by 15. However, Atlanta isn't nearly as good on the road. Indeed, the Hawks are just 3-16 away from Atlanta. Having just lost at Cleveland, their third straight on the road, and with a difficult 5-game stretch (home game vs. SA, followed by road games at HOU, OKC, NO and MIN) to follow, the Blazers know that they need to take care of business here. Look for them to do just that, avenging the 12/30 loss in "blowout" fashion. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors will have payback on their minds, after the Rockets spoiled their home opener. I was at the game and it was absolutely Harden that brought the Rockets back. Without Harden in the lineup, the Rockets can still be pretty good. However, I don't believe that they're going to good enough without him to defeat the motivated champs. While the Rockets are 1-4 ATS their last five, when playing the second of b2b games, the Warriors are 26-15 ATS their last 41 when playing with 'revenge.' PAYBACK TIME.

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* GAME OF MONTH). While they're without Vucevic, the Magic are starting to get healthy. Gordon, Fournier and Payton are all back in the starting lineup, at the same time. Biyombo can't do quite everything Vucevic does but is still a capable replacement. He had an impressive 17 boards last time out, while also adding 13 points and three blocks. Houston will be without Harden. Additionally, the Rockets could easily get caught looking ahead to Thursday's game, as they'll be hosting the Warriors on National TV. Thats a rematch of an opening night thriller, which I attended, where the Warriors got their rings. Its also a likely preview of the Western Conference Finals, at least a very possible one. While the Rockets have a big game tomorrow, the Magic get the next couple of days off. In other words, they can leave it all on the floor here. Orlando's last three games have resulted in a victory and two losses of six or fewer points. With the schedule, venue and situation in their favor, expect them to give their guests all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset.  

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). Admittedly, the Bulls have been on an impressive run of late. However, the majority of that success has come at home. They're still just 4-14 away from Chicago. Now, they'll take on a Wizards team which has been clicking on all cylinders, here at Washington. The Wizards last three home games have ALL resulted in double-digit wins. In fact, they won those three games by a combined 55 points. While the Bulls play again on 1/1, the Wizards don't play next until 1/3. Look for them to leave it all on the floor, closing out 2017 with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). The Heat just beat the Magic, at Miami, before Christmas. For this evening's rematch, the Magic have both the venue and schedule in their favor. While The Heat hosted Brooklyn on Friday, the Magic had the night off. The Magic got back on track last time out, a big win over Detroit. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, avenging last week's loss along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). The Kings have some (potentially) winnable games coming up in the near future. Tonight's game isn't one of them. Off their Christmas Day loss, the Cavs are going to be looking to take out their frustration on someone. The Cavs won here by 12 last season. They were up by 18 at the break and cruised the rest of the way. I expect an even bigger margin tonight, as the Kings don't have the personnel to match up against a motivated Lebron and co. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). Homecourt has long been significant for both these teams. Thats been the case once again this season. The Jazz are a healthy 12-6 at home but a poor 3-13 on the road. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 7-12 on the road but 11-3 here at Denver. These teams have already faced each other twice. Given the above home/road records; with both those games being played at Utah, its not surprising that the Jazz won both. In fact, the Jazz have dominanted the Nuggets, at Utah, in recent seasons. However, the Nuggets won both of last season's meetings here at Denver. Both wins came by double-digits. Speaking of "double-digits," the Nuggets are off b2b double-digit wins, most recently winning at Golden State on 12/23. Meanwhile, the Jazz have lost nine of their last 11 and three of the last four losses have been by double-digits. I'm laying the relatively small number with the revenge-minded Nuggets.

I'm playing on OKC (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Thunder have had this one circled ever since the Rockets knocked them out of the playoffs last year. While Houston has indeed been impressive this season, I expect Westbrook and co. to rise to occasion. Keep in mind that the Thunder haven't been getting points at home since a November game against the defending champs. They stepped up and beat the Warriors by 17 in that one. Including that result, they're 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were home underdogs. Look for them to improve on those stats on Christmas Day. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). While the Nets had yesterday off, the Kings are off a hard fought victory over the 76ers. Even with that victory, however, they're still just 3-12 against teams from the East. Playing the final leg of a 4-game trip, it should be easy for them to go through the motions, as they look forward to returning home for a game against the Spurs on 12/23 and to spend Christmas with their families. Off three straight losses, the Nets are going to be in a foul mood. Look for them to take it out on the Kings, en route to a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game. However, that was a tough spot. Not only were they on the road, but they were off a 3-OT game the previous day. However, the Thunder have since had a day off and now they're back home. Thats significant as they're 9-4 at home compared to 5-11 on the road. They'll be playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss to the Nuggets, at Denver. Like their hosts, the Nuggets aren't nearly as good away from home. At Denver, they're an impressive 11-2. However, like the Thunder, they're just 5-11 on the road. Look for homecourt to make the difference, the revenge-minded Thunder bouncing back with a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). I attended the 11/11 game, at Phoenix, between the T-Wolves and Suns. Behind a huge game from Booker, the Suns won that one. Since then, however, Booker has gotten hurt. The Wolves already got some payback with an 11-point win here at Minnesota. I expect an even more lopsided margin this evening. The Wolves, who are off a 23-point destruction of Sacramento, know that they'll play at Phoenix again on 12/23. A look at the rest of their December schedule reveals that this is their "easiest" game remaining in 2017 - at least, they wont be favored by this much again. With the Suns at just 6-18-1 ATS (3-22 SU) the past 25 times that they played with exactly two day's rest, look for the Wolves to take hold serve at home, doing so in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* PERS FAV). The Kings need to take advantage of this winnable game. They just finished a tough 4-game trip. Then, they lost here vs. Toronto. After this, they embark on another fairly difficult 4-game trip. The Suns already beat the Kings earlier. That was at Phoenix and with Booker in the lineup. Booker had called it a "must win," as it was the first game after the coach had been fired and came on the heels of Bledsoe having been sent home. I backed the Suns in that one (Oct. GOM) and they rewarded me with their first win. With tonight's rematch at Sacramento and the Suns now without Booker, expect the revenge-minded Kings to get some payback.

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a great spot for the Bulls. Off back-to-back victories and three straight covers, Chicago comes in playing arguably its best basketball of the season. The Bulls, who had yesterday off, haven't forgotten that the Celtics eliminated them from the playoffs last season. The Celtics are of a win at Detroit yesterday and will now be playing their third road game in the past four days.

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Rockets have played very well away from Houston. That said, I believe they're being asked to lay too many points against what figures to be an extremely hungry Portland team. The Blazers haven't been underdogs this big all season - even when playing on the road. Already 0-3 on their current homestand and with a difficult road trip starting at Golden State coming up next, the Blazers know they could desperately use a victory tonight. They beat the Rockets by double-digits the last time that the teams met. Expect them to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* PERS FAV). Knowing that they'll face these same Hawks, at Altanta, in a few days, I expect the Magic to deliver a strong effort on their home floor this evening, as they attempt to "hold serve." The Magic played their last two games on the road and before that they'd faced the Warriors and Thunder. Yet, they still managed to split those games. Now, they face a team which they match up well against. With the Hawks just 3-9 on the road and off a 20-point loss against Brooklyn, expect the Magic to take advantage. 

10* ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Suns are playing the final game of a long six-game road trip and I think they have a predictable letdown here. In fact Phoenix comes in off a hugely satisfying 115-101 win over Philadelphia just last night. The Raptors on the other hand have had three whole nights off after beating the Pacers 120-115 in their latest action. And with another two days off after tonight’s contest, the Raptors will be completley focused on the task at hand. The Suns got the better of the Raptors 115-103 back on January 22nd, 2017, but the conditions favor a blowout for Toronto this time around. Lay the points with confidence, Raptors roll.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Memphis Grizzlies. I base my picks on many different things. I consider myself among the best when it comes to finding which side is more “motivated” than the other in a particular contest and in this case, I don’t think there’s any need to doubt the Grizzlies’ overall focus today, as Memphis enters on an 11-game losing streak, most recently a 116-111 loss in Cleveland on Saturday night. Minnesota is just 6-6 on the road this season and plays at home against the Clippers on Sunday. And with a game against the lowly Clippers again on Wednesday, the Wolves could no doubt be caught looking ahead to that one, on top of also being fatigued in the second game of the back-to-back. Play on Memphis.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs look poised for a letdown here after a home and home sweep of the Grizzlies, most recently a 95-79 victory on Friday. OKC will look to take advantage and build off its 111-107 win at home over Minnesota, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. To say this is a revenge game as well would be a bit of an understatement, as SA has won four of the last five meetings, including a 104-101 home victory in the first matchup this year back in mid November. So far the Spurs average just 101.5 PPG, while allowing only 97.5. OKC averages 102.7 PPG and allows just 99.6. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Pistons, I believe the visitors get caught looking ahead tonight as well. And with a night off before a home game against the Nets, there’s no question that the Thunder can put their full attention onto the court tonight. I look for a comfortable home victory. Lay the points, Thunder roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Portland Trailblazers. Portland has won seven of its last ten, but it had its three-game win streak snapped in a 103-91 setback to Milwaukee in its its first game back after a five-game road trip. With three whole nights off after this one, I expect Portland to be much more focused this evening. The Blazers have to be loving their chances for a bounce back here as well as they’ve already beaten the Pelicans this year, most recently a convincing 103-93 victory on October 24th. New Orleans plays a tough one Utah on Friday night and will clearly be “gassed” here. I think the situation is right for a home side blowout. Lay the points, Blazers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is already a double revenge game for the Thunder, as the Wolves have taken both earlier meetings. OKC has lost three straight and five of its last six. Despite the losing streak, it’s still fourth in the league in defense by giving up an average of 99.3 PPG. Minnesota ranks tenth in scoring with 107.8 PPG. It’s a classic matchup of styles, but I think the Thunder are clearly the “hungrier” team. The Big 3 can’t be happy, especially Russell Westbrook, who took responsibility for his team’s mediocre start to the season recently. OKC also plays with double revenge. I’m banking on these motivational factors to be enough to get the Thunder over the hump in this one. Lay the points, OKC rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE is on the Houston Rockets. Brooklyn comes in off a highly satisfying 98-88 road win against Memphis just last night as a 5.5 point underdog and suffice it to say, I’m expecting an immediate letdown here. The Rockets enter off their fourth straight win in a come-from-behind 117-102 victory over the Knicks at home on Saturday. Brooklyn averages 111.3 PPG, but allows 114.9. The Rockets average 113.5 PPG and allow just 103.4. Houston is 6-1 ATS this season on one or less days rest and has won ten of its last 11. The Nets had lost three straight before last night’s victory, but will clearly be “gassed,” as this is their third game in four days. All signs point to a blowout. Lay the points, Rockets roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Nets come to town off three straight losses, including a deflating 127-125 home setback to Portland on Friday. The Grizzlies can empahthize, as they’ll come into this one desperate after losing seven straight, most recently a 104-92 setback at Denver on Friday. The Nets average 111.3 PPG and allow 114.9. The Grizzlies average 99.4 PPG and allow 101. With a tough game tomorrow night in Houston, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead. And with two whole games off after tonight, the Grizzlies have no more excuses. I’m expecting a rout. Lay the points, Memphis rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Golden State. The Warriors annihilated the Bulls 143-94 last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. The Pelicans come off a satisfying 115-91 win at Phoenix last night. New Orleans averages 108.6 PPG and concedes 109.2. Anthony Davis averages 25.9 points and 11.2 boards, while DeMarcus Cousins adds 26.5 points and 5.9 assists. Golden State now averages 117.4 PPG after last night’s destruction, while allowing 107.5. Kevin Durant averages 24.7 points, 6.8 boards and 6.5 assists per game. Both teams are coming off games just last night, which I feel gives the advantage to the home side here. I think the Pelicans come in content and the hungry Warriors once again lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on the Phoenix Suns. I think the Pelicans have a letdown here after winning four of their last six, including an upset over San Antonio in their most recent. Phoenix has been terrible all year, but it’s looked a little better with two wins out of its last three. Note that this is a triple revenge game for Phoenix, who has dropped three straight in the series. The Suns almost had three wins in a row, but they’d suffer the 113-107 OT setback to Milwaukee on Wednesday. New Orleans is the better overall team, but with a game tomorrow night in Golden State, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors not only having a letdown here after the extended stretch of good play and off the upset, but also getting caught “looking ahead.” Look for the hungry Suns to take advantage and grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte finally got off the schneid, breaking a six-game slide with a 102-87 win over the Clippers on Saturday. Now the Hornets will look to push the pace and build off that victory and take advantage of a tired Wolves team which was in Detroit on Sunday. This is also a big time revenge contest for the Hornets, who lost to Detroit 112-94 on November 5th. No need to overthink this one. The Wolves defense is going to be tired here after a tough game in Detroit on Sunday, while the Hornets look to build off their latest win after an extended losing streak, while at the same time trying to avenge a loss to Minnesota just a couple of weeks ago. Lay the points, Charlotte rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Phoenix Suns. I think the Bulls have a predictable letdown here after they broke their five game losing streak in their 123-120 victory at home over the Hornets. Conversely, I believe the Suns are going to build off their impressive 122-113 road victory at the Lakers on Friday, snapping a two-game slide. These bottom feeders split a pair of games last year, each winning on its home floor. Despite their latest win, the Bulls are still horrible offensively, ranked second to last in scoring with 94.8 PPG. The strength of the team lies on the defensive side as Chicago is allowing 104.2. The Suns can run with the best of them though, averaging 107.6 PPG, while allowing 116.6 per night. Phoenix catches a break facing a tired Bulls team. Lay the points, Suns roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Charlotte Hornets. Both teams are coming off losses. Both teams played just last night. LA lost 118-113 in OT at Cleveland, while Charlotte fell 123-120 in OT at Chicago. LA has not been good whatsoever in this spot for bettors going 0-4 ATS in its last four in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte on the other hand is 2-1 ATS in the same position. Charlotte’s now lost six straight and in my opinion, it will absolutely be the “hungrier” team tonight. I’m banking on that being the difference, Hornets roll.

10* BEST BET on the Sacramento Kings. The Blazers have more talent than the Kings, but so far Portland has struggled for the most part this year. The Blazers are just 5-5 in their last ten overall and come in averaging 104.6 PPG, while allowing 98.9. Beyond CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard though, the Blazers are thin. The hungry Kings looks to take advantage as they come in having lost ten of their last 12. So far Sacramento averages 93.6 PPG and allows 107.1. Clearly not a recipie for success, but I still like the Kings in this one. I expect Sacramento to leave it all on the line in this one as it looks to take advantage of home floor, before the second game of the back-to-back in Portland on Saturday.

10* BEST BET on Toronto Raptors. Could the Rockets come in complacent here? It’s obviously very possible. Houston has won six in a row and must feel pretty good about itself. The Raptors on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after their two-game win streak was snapped in a tight 95-94 road loss in Boston on Sunday. Toronto averages 108.8 PPG and gives up 104.3. Houston averages 111.1 points and allows 102.9. These teams are evenly matched, as Toronto has more than enough firepower and depth to hang with the Rockets tonight. For me it boils down to which side is “hungrier.” I like Toronto to battle tough and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Portland Trailblazers. The Nuggets look poised for a letdown here after winning five of their last six. So far Denver has averaged 106.2 PPG and given up 105.1, led by Nikola Jokic, with 17.2 points and 12 boards per game. Denver is 8-5, but Portland is just 6-6. The Blazers average 105.5 PPG and allow 100.7. Damian Lillard averages 25.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum adds 22.9 points and 4.3 boards. With three whole nights off after this game and after playing six straight at home, I absolutely believe that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors. The Blazers on the other hand have lost two straight and certainly won’t be lacking motivation today. I like the “hungrier” side to find a way to get the job done tonight. Blazers roll.   

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Utah Jazz. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, as Miami averages 103.5 PPG, while Utah averages only 99.1 PPG. The Heat look poised for a letdown here in my opinion though after their 126-115 victory over the Suns on Wednesday. This is also the fifth game of a tough six game road trip, one which has seen the Heat exchanges losses with victories. Despite their losing streak though, the Jazz remain one of the top defensive clubs in the league and here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Miami is content, tired and struggles offensively on the best of nights. I’m banking on a determined Jazz team to do more than enough to cover this spread.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Orlando Magic. The Knicks are going to be gassed in the second game of the back-to-back with Charlotte at home on Tuesday night. The Knicks are for the most part an entirely different team without Carmelo Anthony directing the show, but they’re still only 1-4 ATS in their last five in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. And with a much more winnable game at home against the lowly Kings on deck (the start of an extended home stand), it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors also getting caught looking ahead to that favorable part of their schedule. Orlando won’t be leaving anything for granted after two straight losses, most recently a humbling 104-88 defeat to the league leading Celtics. The Knicks are averaging 104.7 PPG and allowing 104.9. The Magic average 109 PPG and allow 106.3. Seven of New York’s first ten games have come at home though and the road has not been kind to the Knicks over the years. I think that’ll again be the case here against this focused and hungry Magic team. Lay the points.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Charlotte Hornets. A great situational play here. Milwaukee is at home against Oklahoma City on Tuesday night and will clearly be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back. Charlotte has now won two straight in impressive fashion, beating Orlando 120-113 as a 4-point favorite, before then taking down Memphis 104-99 on the road Monday. Now throw in the fact that the Hornets play with the immediate “revenge” factor after losing to Milwaukee 103-94 on November 23rd and I think this line could easily be a lot larger. I’m banking on Charlotte to keep the good times roling and to avenge the earlier setback. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). I previously successfully backed the Suns a couple of times, as I felt they were offering excellent line value and also as I felt they were in strong situational spots. Here, however, they're on the road while up against a superior team. They're not getting very many points and they're unlikely to "catch their opponent napping." Indeed, off back-to-back losses, the Nets are going to come in hungry. Knowing that they start a 5-game road trip after this, one which includes a stop at Phoenix on 11/6, expect the Nets, 33-16-1 ATS their past 50 against the Pacific Division, to take care of business tonight, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). The Warriors are 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) through their first three games here at Oracle. All three have been close. Tonight, however, I expect them to break through with their first home "blowout" win of the season. While the Warriors, who expect to have Livingston back, had last night off, the Pistons are off a late game at LA against the Clippers. (They'll return to LA for a Halloween game against the Lakers.) Playing the second of b2b road games is often tough. I expect it to be particularly difficult against the champs, who will be looking to run their guests right out of the building. The Warriors won last season's meeting here by 20. All signs point to another lopsided affair. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Its true that the Celtics have dominated the Heat in recent seasons. They swept them 4-0 last season. With Boston off three straight wins, many are likely going to expect that series dominance to continue this evening. I'm not one of them, as I expect the Heat to rise to the occasion and get some payback. While it would obviously be nice to have Whiteside back, I like the matchup that (7-foot, 240-pound) Kelly Olynyk presents against his former team. While they lost to the Spurs last time out, the Heat are still 2-0 at home against Eastern Conference teams. What about the Celtics' 3-game winning streak? With Boston managing a 10-27 ATS record the past 2+ seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games, I'm not too worried about it. I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on NY. Its been a tough start to the season for the Knicks. It doesnt get any easier after this either. Next up comes Cleveland, Denver and Houston. That makes taking advantage of this winnable game that much more imperative. While the Nets are 3-0 at home, they're also 0-2 on the road. Those losses came at Orlando and Indiana, not exactly the most intimidating venues. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. Expect them to rise to the occaison and improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). The Suns sure aren't getting much respect. Admittedly, Bledsoe is a talented player. However, its often better to play without a player, if that player doesn't actually want to be part of the team. Without Bledsoe in the lineup, the Suns stepped up and beat Sacramento last time out. Now, having had Tuesday off, the Suns catch the Jazz off a late game at LA. With their next five games on the road, the Suns know they need to take advantage of a winnable home game. All three of last season's meetings were decided by seven or fewer points, including a 5-point game here at Phoenix. In another one that could well come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the generous points with the home dog. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* GAME OF MONTH). Off to an 0-3 SU/ATS start and with five of their next six on the road, the Suns badly need a victory. I feel that the Kings will provide them with the perfect opportunity. While they gave up a whopping 130 points last time out, the Suns were playing on the road and were playing the second of b2b games. Now, they're back home and have had a day off. Note that the Suns are a lucrative 23-9-2 ATS the past 34 times that they'd allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Its also worth noting that Phoenix is a profitable 39-24-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after a double-digit loss. The Kings have scored 100 or less in all three games and they managed only 79 last time out. This is a team which the Suns can handle and I expect them to do exactly that.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). Both teams played last night, the Blazers won while the Bucks lost. I expect that to make the Bucks a little more "desperate" than their guests tonight. The Bucks took both meetings last season, including a 115-107 victory here at Milwaukee. They also beat the Blazers here the previous season. While the Blazers were 16-18 ATS when playing the second of b2b games the past couple of seasons, the Bucks were 21-17 ATS in that situation. Expect homecourt to make the difference, the Bucks bouncing back with a victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one and I feel that the low line is offering us excellent value. The Pistons took three of four meetings last season, including both here at Detroit. Note that they were laying -5 and -5.5 for those games. The addition of Bradley should serve them well tonight. He's an excellent defender and is going to give the Charlotte rookies (Bacon and Monk) a difficult time. The Hornets were 14-27 on the road last season, while the Pistons were 24-17 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 103 to 98.9. Detroit wins, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GSW (10* MAIN EVENT). Anyone waiting for the "Warriors' era" to come to an end is probably going to have to wait a long time. The team resigned Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, McGee, Pachulia and West while also bringing in Nick Young and Omri Casspi. They have the potential to be every bit as good as last season. The Rockets added Chris Paul in the offeseason. Any team with both Harden and Paul in the backcourt is obviously going to be dangerous. However, I'm betting that it will take at least a game or two for the chemistry to really be there. Remember, this Warrior team is a tight cohesive unit, a well-oiled machine, the players knowing exactly what to expect from each other. I'll be at the game, watching the ring ceremony. It should be a good one and I ultimately expect the Warriors to win by double-digits.

*With this purchase, you will be helping the victims of the California fires. I will be donating part of the proceeds to the Napa Valley Community Disaster Relief Fund. Thank you for your support. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 8* MAIN EVENT. You already know the situation and have probably watched at least some of the series. The Warriors, still undefeated in the postseason, are now up 3-0 and going for the sweep. Most seem to think they'll get it, as the line is a little higher than it was here for Game 3. I've often been known to also jump on the team which is up 3-0. However, in this case, I feel that Lebron simply has too much pride to go down without a serious fight. The Cavs could have easily covered last game. I expect AT LEAST a cover here, the Cavs with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors obviously dominated the games out West and are looking very strong. That said, getting points with the Cavs at home, in a must-win game, is providing excellent value. The numbers are remarkably even, when we compare the Warriors' road stats to the Cavs' home stats. GS is 37-10 on the road. Cleveland is 36-11 at home. GS averages 113.8 ppg on the road. Cleveland averages 113 ppg at home. GS allows 105.4 ppg on the road. Cleveland allows 104.8 ppg at home. (The Cavs outscore teams by 8.2 ppg at home, while the Warriors outscore teams by 8.4 ppg on the road.) The Cavs are 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. The last time (4/2 at Indiana) it happened, they delivered a 20-point win their next game. The last time these teams met here was Christmas Day and the Cavs won by a single point. I'm not counting out James quite yet and in a game which could easily again come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Warriors have opened as bigger favorites for Game 2 than they were for the opening game. I feel thats providing excellent value on what should be a highly determined Cleveland team. Granted, the Warriors certainly looked impressive in the opener. I'm not counting the Cavs out for Game 2 though. Not even close. While the same can be said of the Warriors, this is a Cleveland team which has taken its game to another level and dominated these entire playoffs. Prior to Thursday's setback, the Cavs had only lost one of their previous 13 games. They responded to that one with a double-digit win (vs. Boston) next time out. Trailing for the first time in these playoffs, expect the champs to bounce back with at least a cover, improving to 6-4 ATS their last 10, when trailing in a playoff series. 

I'm playing the Cavs for the first half 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR. After they blew a big lead and lost the previous game outright, the Cavs came out sluggishly in the first half of the last game. At the break, they found themselves trailing by double-digits. They finally "woke up" though and won the second half by 23 points. This being an elimination game, knowing the Warriors are already waiting for them, I expect Lebron and co. to smell the blood in the water. Trying to break Boston's will early, look for them to bring the same type of intensity they showed in the second half of the last game to the opening tip tonight. The Cavs were up by scores of 61-39 and 72-31 at the break in the first two games here. I expect them to have a healthy lead at the break once again. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Obviously, the Cavs are playing very well. Off that dominant effort in Game 1, many have already written this series off. While it will indeed be difficult to win the series, I'm not writing the Celtics off quite yet. Not for tonight, at least. This is still a team which is 35-14 at home. Meanwhile, the Cavs are still just 25-21 on the road. The Celtics are a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* BEST BET. After the first five games were all decided by "double-digits," the last game was decided by a single point. With everything on the line between two evenly matched teams, I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire. The fact that the teams had the weekend off figures to work in Washington's favor. The Celtics are just 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing with two day's rest this season. Thats pretty bad, considering how strong their overall record was. On the other hand, the Wizards are 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) when doing so. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GS 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Spurs sure looked impressive in their Game 6 win at Houston. They're obviously extremely well-coached and not to be taken lightly. That said, I believe that the Warriors are playing at another level. They have yet to lose this postseason. All but one of their victories has come by double-digits. The Spurs have only lost twice in May. However, both of those losses came by more than 20 points. So, when they do lose, they've shown that they can "lose big." Note that the Spurs are 5-9 ATS off two day's rest and 2-4 ATS when coming off an "upset" win. All three of this season's regular season meetings were decided by a minimum of 12 points, two of those decided by 20 or more. I expect the Warriors to deliver another convincing victory on Sunday. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Since stealing Game 1, the Rockets have dropped two in a row. That essentially makes this a must win game for them and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While the Spurs are just 2-3 SU/ATS off an upset win, the Rockets are 11-6-1 ATS and 14-4 SU, when off an upset loss. They're also 9-3-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to even the series, picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. After dropping the first two games at Cleveland, the Raptors are in "must win" territory. With Lowry, who did not participate in morning shootaround, a gametime decision, not many are giving the Raptors much of a chance here. With or without Lowry, I expect a determined Raptor team to come ready to play. You may recall that the Raptors lost both the first games at Cleveland pretty badly in last season's playoffs, too. For Game 3, the Cavs were -5.5 point favorites. Yet, the Raptors scored an 99-84 upset. This team, now with Ibaka, is every bit as capable as last year's team and they're not going to go down without a fight. While the Cavs are 22-21 on the road, the Cavs are 30-14 at home. While I feel that they've got a great shot at the upset, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GS 10* PERS FAV. The Jazz eked out a cover in Game 1, losing by 12. While the line has come down slightly for Game 2, I don't expect the Jazz to be so fortunate tonight. This playoff-tested team is already 3-0 ATS when leading in a series. After winning by "only" 12 in the opener against the Blazers, the line also came down a little for Game 2 of that series. Yet, the Warriors won Game 2 by 29 points, their biggest blowout of the playoffs. The Jazz may give them a tougher challenge in Utah but I don't see it happening here tonight. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO 10* PERS FAV. After getting embarrassed last time out, the Spurs figure to be much better in Game 2. They've already lost home court advantage and know they can ill afford to stumble again. The Spurs are 12-8-1 ATS (15-6 SU) off an "upset loss" this season and they're 5-2 SU/ATS when playing with "home revenge." On the other hand, the Rockets were just 2-5 ATS off an "upset win." Expect the Spurs to want this one more and for that to ultimately lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. I won with the Cavs in the opener. However, I expect the Raptors to put up a much better fight tonight. The Raptors won seven of 10 games this season, when off a double-digit loss. They were blown out by the Bucks twice in the first round and each time they answered with an outright win. Some might be suprised to learn that the Raptors have been superior defensively to the Cavs this season. The Raptors allow 102.2 ppg (101.6 on the road) while the Cavs allow 107.2. Opposing teams hit 45.8% of their fg's against the Cavs but 44.9% against Toronto. Even with the Game 1 result, the Raptors are still 19-6 SU their last 25 against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle here. 

I'm playing on GS 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Jazz are just off a very taxing and emotional series. The Warriors had a relatively easy time with Portland and have had plenty of rest. I expect that to work in their favor on Tuesday night. One might expect the Jazz to fare well as big underdogs. However, that hasn't been the case. Not in recent seasons, at least. In fact, the Jazz are 0-6 SU/ATS as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points the past couple of seasons. That includes a 30-point loss here on 12/20. While the Jazz did score the upset here on 4/10, the Warriors are a dominating 38-19 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. They've won their playoff home games by an average of more than 20 points and I expect another blowout here. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* MAIN EVENT. In what should be a good series, I expect the Cavs to come out swinging. While the Cavs swept the Pacers, the Raptors showed some vulnerability in the opening round, losing a pair of games by double-digits. While some teams don't perform well after a long layoff, the Cavs haven't been one of them. They were 2-0 SU/ATS this season, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Each win came by double-digits. They returned from a long break in February and delivered a 15-point win over the Knicks. Earlier, after a break in November, they blew out the Blazers by a dozen points. Expect homecourt to be the difference, James and co. drawing first blood with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Jazz had their opportunity to win this series. They're a much better team at Utah and all they needed to do was win their last game there. Having squandered that opportunity, I expect them to stumble against a determined LA team. Paul and co. showed their resolve last game, digging deep for the win. They come in with positive momentum and are going to be buoyed by the excited home crowd. While the Jazz are only 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times that they were off an upset loss, the Clippers are 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) off an upset win. LA wins, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. I won with the Raptors last game. Playing at home, the playoff-tested Raptors dominated from wire-to-wire. This is a Toronto team which rarely does things easily though. More often than not, it seems, the Raptors end up going to seven games. You may recall them winning in Game 5 of the playoffs last season against both the Pacers and the Heat, only to then go on to lose Game 6. (They'd ultimately lose Game 6 against the Cavs, too.) The last time they returned home, off a loss at Toronto, the Bucks responded with a 27-point victory. Don't count them out yet.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Warriors have looked very strong. They're going to be tough for anyone to beat in a series. That doesn't mean the Blazers can't give them all they can handle here though. In fact, I expect them to do just that. Everyone has written this series off and the Game 4 lines has gotten generously high, as a result. The Blazers have played the Warriors tough here. They've only lost by more than seven points once, the last six times that they hosted the Warriors. I don't believe they're going down without a fight and I expect them to improve to 8-4 ATS their last 12, after three ore more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. After a shaky start, the Raptors have regained home court advantage in the series. I expect them to carry the positive momentum back home with them. While the Bucks are 5-8 SU/ATS off an "upset" loss, the Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS off an "upset" win. This line is a little lower than it was for either of the first two games here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Raptors are 29-14 on this floor while the Bucks are just 20-23 on the road. The Bucks average 101 ppg on the road, the Raptors average 110 ppg at home. In a pivotal game, expect homecourt and the Raptors' recent postseason experience to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Given the situation, I feel that we're getting the Jazz at a bargain. Griffin is out for the playoffs. True, the Clippers are used to dealing with adversity and playing without Griffin and/or Paul. Still, its a major blow and their chances of advancing deep into the playoffs took a serious hit. Even with Griffin in the lineup, it was going to be tough to beat the Jazz here, in what is essentially a must-win game. The Jazz, now 29-13 at home overall, are 37-16-3 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge a home loss. The Clippers, 23-19 on the road, are only 2-6 SU the last eight time they were leading in a playoff series, 7-15 SU their last 22 in that situation. Expect the Jazz to bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. I lost with the Thunder in their last game. Laying -2.5 points, they won by two. The non-cover notwithstanding, it was a solid effort, one which got them back the series. I look for the Thunder to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Now 3-1 ATS their last four when trailing in a playoff series, the Thunder are also 11-6 ATS (12-5 SU) this season, after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game. While the Rockets, 2-7 ATS overall in April, are a solid 25-17 on the road, the Thunder are a superior 29-13 here at home. The pointspread should be a non-factor this time and I expect the Thunder to finish on top.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Hawks were relatively close in both games at Washington. The Wizards are tough to beat at home though and ultimiately prevailed. Washington won by eight points and seven points. While they're now 32-11 at home, the Wizards are only 19-22 on the road. Meanwhile, while the Hawks are now 20-23 on the road, they're 23-18 here at Atlanta. Expect the change of venue and home crowd to provide the Hawks with some life, enough to cover the small number. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* PERS FAV. The Thunder played much better in Game 2 but it wasn't quite enough. Down 0-2 and now moving to their homecourt, I expect an even better effort in Game 3. While the Rockets were a solid 25-16 on the road, the Thunder were an impressive 28-13 at home. With the cover in Game 2, the Thunder are now 16-9-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were trailing in a playoff series, 3-0 ATS their last three in situation. They were 31-18-1 ATS (36-14 SU) when laying points this season. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* BEST BET. Down a game, I expect Westbrook and co. to respond with a huge effort in Game 2. While the Thunder are 4-1 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, the Rockets are 4-6 ATS when doing so. The Thunder are 13-8 ATS off a double-digit loss. The Rockets are 12-18 ATS off a double-digit loss. Prior to Game 1, the Rockets had gone nine straight games without winning by more than seven points. Look for a determined Thunder team to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* PERS FAV. I'm not writing the Celtics off yet. While Thomas personally played well, perhaps the tragic passing of his sister had an effect on his teammates. Either way, I don't expect it to be the case here. This is a team that worked too hard, all season long, to just go down meekly in the first round. They're deep, talented and well-coached. The Bulls have been inconsistent on the road all season and they're only 16-30-1 (19-28 SU) the past 2+ seasons, off an upset win. Expect the Celtics to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Bucks scored the upset in the opener. With their backs to the wall, I expect this well-coach and battle-tested Raptor team to respond with its best game. The Raptors, 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) when playing with two day's rest, are 10-7 ATS off an upset loss. The Bucks may have put together an excellent defensive performance in the opener but they're just 6-18-1 ATS (7-18 SU) the past 25 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points. Expect the Raptors to bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers had a great chance of stealing Game 1. Having failed to capitalize, I don't think they'll get another opportunity like that in Game 2. The Cavs have had their "wake-up call" and I expect them to be all business here. While the Pacers are now 13-29 on the road, the Cavs are now 32-10 at home. Throw in the fact that the Cavs are 11-7 ATS (15-3 SU) the last 18 times that they were leading in a playoff series and I'm expecting a big win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I'm hearing and reading a lot about how/why the Bulls have a chance at winning this series. I'm not buying it. In my opinion, given how strong they've been here this season, the Celtics could easily be favored by more. Including a 20-point win over the Bulls here on 3/12, they're 31-12 here on the season. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 16-25 on the road. The Celtics are deep. They're well-coached. They're the #1 seed for a reason. Expect a statement game, the Celtics serving notice that they're the real deal. 

*After this play was released, Isaiah Thomas' sister (Chyna Thomas) passed away after being involved in a car accident. First off, deepest sypmathies to the Thomas family. As for this play, as of now, its unknown whether or not Thomas will play. Obviously, he's a huge part of this team. So, if he feels its the right thing to do do, hopefully he decides to play through the pain. However, I referenced the Celtics' depth in my writeup for good reason. Should Thomas elect not to play, I believe this team is fully capable of rising to the occasion with a big win. Either way, I still expect a win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. The Clippers battled hard to earn homecourt for this matchup and I expect them to make the most of it this evening. The Clippers took three of four meetings with the Jazz this season. They won both games here at LA by double-digits. The Cippers, who have won seven straight overall, are 14-6 ATS their last 20 against teams with a winning record. They finished 29-12 here at home. The Jazz, who were just 22-19 on the road, were only 6-15-1 ATS, when getting points this season. While the Jazz were 3-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest, the Clippers were 7-4 ATS when doing so. Expect homecourt to be the difference. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* BEST BET. The Spurs are obviously a very good and extremely well-coached team. However, sometimes it can be hard to just "turn it on" after not playing well for a long time. The Spurs, 3-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are only 4-5 SU their last nine games and only one of those nine games resulted in a win of greater than six points. The Grizzlies won't be intimidated. They took two of four regular season meetings with the Spurs and both their losses came by seven or fewer points. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF MONTH. I expect this game to mean more to the T-Wolves. The Thunder, who are locked into the 6th seed, rallied to deliver a knockout blow to the Nuggets in their last game. That game actually meant something though, as Denver was still mathematically alive against the Blazers for the 8th spot. They'll face those same Nuggets, at OKC, again tomorrow to close out the regular season. Tonight's game really doesn't mean much though. Its a road game against a team which is playing only for pride. Westbrook has already set the triple-double record. They already know they'll play the Rockets. (We saw what happened to them in a "meaningless road game" last night.) The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are playing their regular season home finale. A win here will reward the home fans for staying with them through a tough season. I believe they're going to be motivated to deliver that win. Note that they beat the Thunder by 10 in the last meeting here. Expect them to win and cover once again, improving to 10-6 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. *GOM

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. There are a number of factors that favor the Clippers in this one. For starters, they're playing at home, where they are a much better team. They've 27-12 here, compared to 22-19 on the road. (The Rockets are 25-15 on the road.) Also, the Clippers had yesterday off, while the Rockets are off a win at Sacramento. Additionally, the Clippers are playing with "double-revenge," as the Rockets hammered them in a couple of games earlier. Perhaps most importantly, the Rockets have already wrapped up the #3 seed while the Clippers are in a dogfight with the Jazz, who they will face in the opening round, for the #4 spot and the homecourt advantage which comes with it. While the Rockets are a surprisingly poor 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) their last 14 against teams with a winning records, the Clippers are 13-6 ATS against teams with a winning record, during the same stretch. Payback time on TNT. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat beat me yesterday but that won't stop me from going against them again here. While Miami was off a hard-fought loss at Toronto, the Wizards had yesterday off. I expect a highly motivated effort from the home team. Not only is this Washington's final home game of the regular season but the Heat have already beaten them twice. Also, they know that they close out the regular season with a game at Miami on 4/12. So, if they don't beat the Heat here, they could easily be 0-4 against them for the season, a distinction which they obviously would prefer to avoid. The Heat are now 17-23 on the road. The Wizards, on the other hand, are 30-10 at home. With the Wizards also 23-12 ATS their last 35 in the "revenge" role, I say its "payback time" this evening. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. Its true that the Heat really need this game. However, the same is true of the Raptors, as they are battling for the #3 spot in the conference. Currently, the Raptors are in third place (due to tiebreaker rules) just slightly ahead of the Wizards. They'd badly like to maintain that spot and try and avoid the Cavs as long as possible. The Raptors got Lowry back last game and he makes this team much better. While the Heat are 17-22 on the road, the Raptors are 27-13 at home. The Heat get outscored on the road, the Raptors outscore teams by an average of eight points per game, here at Toronto. Thats about the margin the Raptors beat the Heat by when the teams faced each other here, a 9-point win back in November. Toronto was laying -7 for that game. Including that victory, the Raptors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight as a host of the Heat. We're getting them at a lower line this time. For the regular season home finale, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Expect another big win and cover for the Raptors. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. The home team has won both meetings. The Magic won by seven here at Orlando back in mid-December. The Nets returned the favor with a 10-point win at Brooklyn last week. Playing at home and looking to avenge that loss, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Magic. While the Magic admittedly don't have a great (14-24) home record, its much better than the Nets' 7-31 record on the road. While the Nets are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that that they were off three or more consecutive wins, the Magic are 9-6 ATS their last 15 off three or more consecutive losses. With the Nets allowing more than 115 pgg on the road, and Orlando allowing an average of just 103 ppg here, I expect homecourt to again make the difference and for the Magic to come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Blazers have been roling but I expect them to finally stumble this evening. The T-Wolves would love to "play spoiler" against a team which has already beaten them twice this season. A win here gets them to .500 at home on the season. The Blazers are still just 16-23 on the road. Both teams have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games recently. The T-Wolves have hit triple-digits in five straight games, scoring 115 or more in four of those five. They should put up another big number against a Portland team which allows 109.1 (110.2 on the road) points per game. The Wolves are 18-12 ATS their last 30 against teams which allow 106 or more. Look for them to "come to play," ultimately scoring the win and cover. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. The Mavs deserve credit for hanging around as long as they did. However, they're now officially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and I feel they may have some trouble getting up for this one. The Bucks, who will be looking to avenge an OT loss at Dallas and who have won three straight overall, are 22-17 at home. The Mavs, on the other hand, are now 10-26 on the road. The Bucks are playing with more confidence. Expect them to defend their homecourt, covering the relatively small number along the way.

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* PERS FAV. The Magic played a great game last night, leaving it all on the floor at Boston. They ultimately lost by a point though (117-116) and that figures to be a hard pill for them to swallow. Off that tough loss and playing their third game in four days, I won't be surprised if they're a little flat here. While the Nets are also off a tough loss, they at least had yesterday off. They know the Magic beat them at Orlando and they know they'll face them again, at Orlando, in less than a week. They're going to be hungry to avenge the earlier loss and to "hold serve" at home. This is the most winnable game on the rest of their schedule. Expect them to take advantage of the opportunity. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. I expect the Thunder to be a little more "up" for this game. The Spurs just lost a big one against the Warriors which cost them the chance at the #1 spot. They're locked into the #2 seed, this game now means little. They're 2-4 ATS their last six off a double-digit loss, 8-12-1 ATS in that situation the past couple seasons. The home team has won both meetings, each time by double-digits. With the Thunder at 27-10 (25-11-1 ATS) home, they could easily be favored. I expect them to score the "upset." 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Both teams really need this one but I like the way the Hornets are playing right now much better. Throw in the fact that they're also at home and this line could easily be higher. The Nuggets are off b2b losses. They got crushed by 25 points by the Pelicans in their last home game and followed it up with a pivotal 9-point loss at Portland. They've now lost four of fix. Charlotte, on the other hand, knocked off the Raptors last time out and has won five of its last seven. While Charlotte may be a relatively modest 21-17 at home, the Nuggets are just 15-21 on the road. The Hornets won by 10 at Denver a few weeks ago and I look for them to record the series sweep tonight. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. The Pistons badly need a victory and the Nets should provide them with the perfect opportunity to get one. Detroit has lost five in a row and no game on the remaining schedule will see them favored by this much. The fact that the Nets have already beaten them twice should only provide further motivation. Even with a 1-point loss last game (still covered) the Pistons are 23-15 at home. That compares favorably with the Nets' 6-30 road record. The Nets were favored last game but still lost. They're 0-2 SU/ATS when off a loss when favored. With the cover last time out, the Pistons are now 8-3 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. Look for them to bounce back and record a convincing victory. 

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards had to fight hard to beat the Lakers last night. While they don't have to travel, they're still in a tough back-to-back spot. While its true that they still have an outside shot at catching the Cavs for the #2 seed, given that they clinched the division last night, their first division title in 38 years, a letdown could easily be in order. Thats not the case for the Clippers. LA, currently in 5th in the West, is well-rested and fighting hard to get the fourth spot. As you're likely aware, the #4 seed has homecourt advantage while the #5 seed does not. After collapsing against the Kings last time out and having already lost to these same Wizards at Washington, the Clippers are going to be extremely motivated. Look for them to be both hungrier and fresher and for that to ulimately lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hawks are on a losing streak. A look at their upcoming schedule reveals that they won't get a better opportunity than this one to stop the bleeding. After this, five of their next eight come on the road. The three remaining home games, after this one, are against Boston, Cleveland and Charlotte. In other words, they really need to take advantage of facing a Phoenix team which has lost eight straight and which is 10-30 on the road. A look at the Suns' 8-game skid shows that they allowed a minimum of 107 points in all eight of those games. Over their past three games, they've allowed 126, 130 and 120. The Hawks beat them by 13 here last season. I'm expecting another double-digit victory.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have won both this season's meetings and I expect them to have the edge again this evening. While the Pelicans are off a win at Denver yesterday, the Jazz had the day off. Thats noteworthy as New Orleans is just 4-9-1 ATS (4-10 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off a 13-point loss, the Jazz, who are 5-3 ATS (6-2 SU) off a double-digit loss, figure to be in a foul mood. The Pelicans are are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when matched up against a team which allows 98 or fewer points per game. With the Jazz allowing only 96.7 ppg (94.5 at home) I'm expecting a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The home team has won each of this season's game convincingly. The Thunder won by 11 at OKC. The Mavs won by 15 here at Dallas. I expect homecourt to make the difference again here. Off a loss last time out and with their next five on the road, the Mavs know they need to take care of business tonight. While the Mavs had yesterday off, the Thunder are off a hard-fought loss against the Rockets. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they lost at Phoenix. Including that result, they're just 3-9 the last dozen times that they played the second of b2b games. While the Thunder are now 14-21 on the road, the Mavs are 21-17 at home. The Mavs badly need this one. Look for them to have the fresher legs and to play with a sense or urgency, en route to an important win. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. Off back-to-back losses, the Pacers can't afford another setback here. While they've admittedly played much better in recent weeks, the 76ers are still an ugly 10-26 on the road. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 25-11 at home. The Pacers are a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they hosted the 76ers. They won those games by a combined 72 points, an average of a dozen points per victory. In five of those six games, including this season's earlier meeting, the Pacers were laying double-digits. However, we're only laying single-digits this time. As I'm expecting the Pacers to pull away for a double-digit win, I feel the lower line is providing us with excellent value. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks badly need a victory and a visit from the Nets should provide them with the perfect opportunity. While the Nets are 5-30 on the road, the Hawks are still 19-17 at home. When the Hawks hosted the Nets a few weeks ago, they were laying -10 points. When they played at Brooklyn in January, they were laying -8.5 points. They won those two games by an average of 12.5 points. This afternoon, as a result of recent results, we're getting a far lower line to work with. I feel thats providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. These teams are going in opposite directions. Fighting for a playoff spot, the Blazers are now 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in March. Last time out, they blew out the Knicks. They've since had a day off. On the other hand, the T-Wolves are now 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games. They've given up an average of 118.6 ppg during that stretch. Off last night's loss at LA, the T-Wolves are now 10-25 SU and 13-22 ATS on the road. Note that the T-Wolves are also 11-33 SU their last 44 when playing the second of b2b games. The Blazers won by six when these teams met at Minnesota on New Year's Day. Playing at home, with more to play for and with the schedule in their favor, I expect an even bigger margin of victory tonight. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Pacers have alternated wins and losses for 14 straight games now. Off a loss at Boston, I expect them to bounce back and continue that pattern for at least another day. Both these teams are much better on their home floor. Off an impressive win against the Cavs last time out, the Nuggets are 20-17 at home. However, they're just 14-20 on the road. Meanwhile, the Pacers are an ugly 11-25 on the road but an impressive 25-10 at home. Last time on this floor, they beat Utah by seven. That brought them to a perfect 5-0 here, dating back to 2/24. All five of those wins came by a minimum of four points and they came by an average of nearly 12. The Pacers won by four when they hosted the Nuggets last season, a game in which they were laying -9.5 points. Obviously, we're getting a far more favorable line here. The Nuggets crushed the Pacers 140-112 when these teams met at London back in January. Playing at home, I expect the Pacers to get some payback this evening. *GOW

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. These teams have met twice so far this season. Boston won both meetings. However, both were decided by seven points or less. In fact, the last four meetings were all decided by single-digits. Speaking of close games, the last three Celtic games overall have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Pacers have won three of their last five, only one of those five games coming by more than six. Off their win against the Jazz, Jeff Teague said this of the Pacers' effort: "We played well tonight, we played hard, we were a group out there. Defensively, I think we did a really great job." Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Pacers as they take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset.

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. Enough is enough. The Bulls have dominated the Raptors for years. The Raptors are the better team right now though and are determined to make things right by finally beating their nemesis. Dwayne Casey said this of beating Chicago: "It should be high on our radar." With the Raptors off a big weekend and back-to-back double-digit wins, now should be the ideal time. They're 12-7 ATS after scoring 115 or more and 14-6 ATS off a double-digit win. While the Raptors are 23-12 at home, the Bulls are 13-22 on the road. With the Bulls also at 2-6 SU/ATS after allowing 90 or fewer points in their previous game, I say its "payback time" on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the 76ers have been playing well recently. However, in this case, I believe that the Magic are favored for good reason. While the 76ers are off a win against Boston yesterday and now playing their third game in the past four days, the Magic are well-rested. Since closing their road trip with a win over the Suns, the Magic have had the past  couple of days off. They're healthier than their guests and they should be motivated to reward the home fans with a victory. Note that the Magic are 15-9 ATS the last 24 times that they played their previous three games on the road. When the Magic do win, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. They've won five games since the 76ers beat them by a point here back in early February. All five of those victories came by a minimum of six points. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight and for that to ultimately make the difference.

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. The Pistons are healthier and they should be hungrier. The Pistons' current 3-game losing streak has seen them fall out of the top eight spots in the East. They desperately need to stop the bleeding here. While the Suns are also off three straight losses, unlike the Pistons, they're currently playing out the string. Note that the Suns are without Bledsoe, Knight, Bender and Chandler. Also, while Booker is probable, as of this writing, Barbosa is questionable.

Detroit's Reggie Jackson had this to say: "We are not panicking. Everybody has had their run, so 13 games left, I know in my mind I am bound to make one before it happens, so I am good. I plan to be in the playoffs. We are going to keep chasing it each and every day. I love my team and they are optimistic, just as much as I am. We are going to keep attacking this."

While the Suns did beat the Pistons at Phoenix, they're just 10-25 on the road. The Pistons, on the other hand, are 22-14 at home.

With the Suns allowing 112.5 ppg, note that the Pistons are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 106 or more points per game. Look for the Pistons to bounce back with a big win, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, after losing their previous three in a row.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors haven't covered in awhile but this should be a good spot to break though with a blowout win. While the Warriors have tomorrow off, the Magic play at Phoenix tomorrow. That's a far more winnable game, obviously. Once the Warriors jump all over them, they're likely to start thinking about tomorrow and may not fight as hard to try and get back in the game. In their last three games, the Magic have allowed 121, 116 and 120 points. Since they only average 99.9 ppg, that makes keeping up tough. Note that they're 7-12 ATS (4-15 SU) against teams which average 106 or more ppg. Now, they'll face a GSW team which still averages a whopping 119.1 ppg. The Warriors won the first meeting by 20 points. With the Magic only 12-25 ATS their last 37, after allowing 115 or more ppg, look for this one to also turn ugly.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. Recent results have kept this line lower than it could have been. The Bucks have been rolling while the Grizzlies have been reeling. I feel that the low line is providing us with very fair value on what should be a desperate home team. The Grizzlies badly need a victory. After this, they've got six of their next seven on the road, the lone home game during that stretch coming against San Antonio. 

While the recent results haven't been there for the Grizzlies, it hasn't been from lack of effort. Coach David Fizdale made these comments after yesterday's practice: "As long as I see that we’re getting in the gym early, staying connected, staying positive and getting shots up then I’m encouraged. Obviously, we’ve got to iron some things out and get us playing better basketball. But I just keep looking at the body of work. Obviously, we’re disappointed because we feel like we’ve let the fans down some with these losses at home. But if our fans knew how hard these guys were working behind the scenes on being a better basketball team they’d be happy to know that. We’re going to work our way out of the mud. That’s all it is. We've hit adversity. Its punched us in the face. We have to figure out how to get up ..."

The Grizzlies, who lost at Milwaukee earlier in the season, are 17-12 ATS (19-10 SU) when playing with 'revenge.' They still only allow 97.3 ppg on this floor. They're still 19-14 here, which compares favorably to the Bucks' 12-17 mark on the road.

While they've now lost three in a row at Milwaukee, the Grizzlies have dominated the Bucks here at Memphis. They won by 20 when they last hosted the Bucks and that brought them to 5-0 SU the last five meetings here. The last four of those all come by a minimum of nine points, the last two by double-digits. The Grizzlies, who are expected to bring back Tony Allen to the starting lineup tonight, held the Bucks to 90 or fewer points in ALL five games. Expect them to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, en route to a much needed win and cover.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Heat have been on an impressive run and they won again yesterday. I expect their roll to come to an end today though. While the Heat were busy playing Toronto yesterday, the Pacers were resting, waiting for them. Its true that the Heat did have a couple of days off, prior to yesterday's game. However, they'd previously played three games in four days, including an emotional home-and-home vs. Lebron and the Cavs. So, this will still mark their sixth game in the past 10 days. To look at it another way, they've played one more game in March than Indiana has. The Pacers have only played two home games since the All Star Break and they've won them both. In fact, both wins (Memphis and Detroit) came by double-digits. Overall, they're 22-10 at home, compared to a 14-20 road mark for Miami. Playing with revenge from a pair of losses at Miami, look for the rested, revenge-minded Pacers to take care of business on their home floor. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight wins, the Blazers are playing their best basketball. The Blazers, who are a much better team here at the Moda Center, know that they hit the road for five games after this. With an 11-22 road record, compared to a 17-13 mark here at home, they know how important is to take care of business tonight. Admittedly, the Wizards have also been playing well lately. However, while the Blazers had last night off, the Wizards were forced to go to OT to beat Sacramento. Not only will they be playing the second of b2b games but this will also mark their fourth road game in the past five days. Thats a brutal schedule, made worse by the extra minutes they were forced to play last night. While the Wizards blew them out at Washington earlier, the Blazers have dominated the Wizards here at Portland in recent seasons. With the schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Blazers to stay hot for another day.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Off three straight losses, most recently an embarrassing setback against Brooklyn on Monday, the Grizzlies are going to be in an angry mood. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a much needed victory. 

While the Grizzlies have been off since Monday, the Clippers played last night. They're 6-7 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is worse than a "typical" b2b spot though, as this will mark their third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven days.

The Clippers have taken two of three meetings this season. The teams split a pair of games at LA and the Clippers won here, back in November. However, even with that result, the Grizzlies are still a profitable 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they hosted the Clippers. 

The only previous time that the Grizzlies had lost three straight this season, they bounced back with a double-digit victory in their next game. Expect another win and cover here. *GOM

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Hawks badly need a big win and the Nets should be the perfect opponent to provide them with one. While the Nets won big at Memphis last time out, they're still a dismal 4-27 away from Brooklyn. They give up 116.9 ppg on the road. That was just their second win in recent weeks. They followed up their last with a 15-point loss. In fact, they haven't won two games in a row all season long. They're also just 7-17 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a double-digit win. The Hawks already won by 20 at Brooklyn earlier. They also beat the Nets by 28 the last meeting here at Atlanta. Catching the Nets, who haven't played a home game since 2/15, playing the second last leg of a long road trip, look for the Hawks to bounce back with another blowout.