Sports Picks & Predictions

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I`m playing on NEW JERSEY. While I obviously respect the Spurs, I believe that this number will prove to be a little too high.

While they may be 11-4 SU at home, the Spurs are only 5-10 ATS here. They`ve won their home games by an average score of just 103.8 to 99. Their road record is actually much better than their home record.

Last game, laying -11.5 points vs. the Kings, the Spurs won by eight. They`re 5-3 their last eight games but none of those five wins came by more than 13 points and four of them came by single-digits.

The Nets did lose by 14 at Indiana last time out. The Pacers have been more dominant at home than the Spurs have though. The Nets had quietly won three of their previous six road games though, two of the losses coming by four points or less. I look for them to show some pride tonight. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While they blew the cover last game, I like the way that the Grizzlies have started to play. They led Houston much of the way last game out, before eventually losing by eight. If you read the post-game comments, you'll see the Grizzlies felt they were treated unfairly by the refs. (Randolf got fined $25K over his comments.) They were happy with their effort though. Before that, they'd won and covered back-to-back games.
On the other hand, with last night's loss at New Orleans, the Nuggets are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five. They played well to start the season but the offseason losses have seemingly started to catch up with them a little.

At least, that's been evident when the Nuggets have played the second of back-to-back games; they're 1-4 SU/ATS in that situation so far this season. The lone win was against the 76'ers; all four losses came by double-digits.

While some of the faces are now different, its worth noting that the Grizzlies have had success as a host in this series recently. They're won four of the last five meetings here, covering three of them. They were laying -6 and -7 points for last season's games here; we're getting a much better line to work with this evening.

A look ahead at the schedule shows that these teams will meet again, at Denver, on 1/3. For that game, Memphis will be in a back-to-back situation while the Nuggets will be rested.

Well aware of next week's schedule and knowing that tonight offers them a much better opportunity for the victory, I expect the Grizzlies to take care of business here. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the visitors. The Grizzlies are well-rested, having had the last couple of days off. They also come in with some positive momentum. They followed up with an 8-point win at NY with a 10-point win over Utah. The Grizzlies, who play with revenge from an earlier loss at Memphis, have played the Rockets tough recently and I look for them to do so again here.

True, the Rockets looked good yesterday. However, that was a big win over an instate rival, on National TV. Throw in the fact that it was Christmas and it figures to have been an especially emotional time/win for some of the players. I feel its a good spot for a letdown, mentally and/or physically. In addition to the back-to-back spot, note that Houston will be playing its third game in the past four days and its fifth game in the past seven nights.

While they lost (by seven points) at Memphis last month, the Grizzlies had previously beaten the Rockets twice in a row. They won their last game here by a score of 82-78.

A look at the last five games in the series shows Memphis with three wins. Only one of those games resulted in a Houston win of greater than seven points.

Off the win over the Jazz, note that the Grizzlies are 31-18-3 ATS (37-15 SU) the past few seasons, when coming off a double-digit victory. During that stretch, they've won 18 of 27, when playing with two day's rest in between games.

The Rockets played last Christmas Day. The next day they were in a battle, winning by three vs. Minnesota. While they were able to grind out the win, afterwards Harden noted the following: ''We were kind of sluggish throughout the game. We stuck with it for four quarters. Every game we're not going to score the ball, we're not going to make shots every single game. In different games you have to grind it out and try to force a win.'' I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I successfully backed the Clippers when these teams faced each other on Halloween. That was at LA though. With tonight's rematch being played at Golden State, I expect a much different result.

Off five straight wins, the Clippers are certainly playing well. (Note that four of those were at home and the other was at Washington.) They failed to cover last time out though, dropping them to 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off three or more consecutive SU victories. Tonight's venue is a tough one.

The Warriors outscore teams by a 104.8 to 97.8 margin at home. The Clippers score only 98.7 ppg on the road, giving up 97.2

Not only do the Warriors score a lot of points, they're also better defensively than many realize. They allow 97.8 ppg at home, but hold visiting teams to just 42.4% from the field. Recently, the Warriors have stepped up their defense, too. Over the last five games, opposing teams have hit less than 40% of their shots, the Warriors holding them to 93.4 points.

Over their last two games, the Warriors have allowed 83 and 81 points. Their opponents (Lakers and Nuggets) shot 32.5% and 38.3% respectively.

They're 12-6-1 ATS (14-5 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range.

The Warriors are also 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times they were a host in this series, 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I believe the Lakers are in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

While the Lakers hosted the T-Wolves last night, the Warriors had Friday off. They figure to be in a foul mood too, after blowing a game against the Spurs on Thursday, a game in which the Spurs played without their "Big 3."

Note that the Warriors are an outstanding 16-9 ATS (17-8 SU) the last 25 times that they were off an "upset" loss.

While they've won a couple in that situation recently, playing back-to-back games doesn't figure to help the depleted Lakers. Not against a Golden State team which averages more than 105 points per game here and more than 108 in divisional games. Note that LA gives up 106 ppg on the road.

One might think that they'd fare well as large underdogs but the Lakers are only 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU) the last eight times that they were road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. During that time, they're also only 3-9 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range.

These teams have already met twice this season. The home team won both games. The Warriors won the game here at Oakland by a score of 125-94, a 31-point destruction. I expect another lopsided result here. 10*

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Bobcats have been a profitable road team this season. I expect them to run into some trouble this evening though.

After rallying from a 21 point deficit last time out, the Pistons have quietly won seven of their last 11 games.

The Pistons average a whopping 51.6 ppg in the paint, most in the league. With Jennings, who had five 3-pointers last time out, heating up from beyond the arc, that makes them very dangerous. Over his last eight games, Jennings had hit 20 (of 49) 3's, averaging 20.8 ppg overall.

While Wednesday's upset win at Toronto was impressive, note that the Bobcats are a dismal 7-23 ATS the last 30 times that they were off a SU win, when listed as an underdog.

After scoring 107 points last time out, the Pistons have now hit triple digits in five straight games. While the Bobcats scored 104 last time out, they'd managed 95 or less in each of their previous four games. They only average 90.8 ppg on the road.

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they scored 105 or more in their previous game. They hammered the Bobcats by 20 in the most recent meeting and I look for another big win here. 10*

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I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. Naturally, I have a lot of respect for the Spurs. They're very well coached and they generally play both smart and well. That said, I feel they're going to get upset tonight.

Both teams are playing well right now. The Spurs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their last four games. The Clippers are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four. (The lone loss came when playing the second of b2b emotional road games.)

The Spurs have only lost twice on the road. The Clippers have only lost twice at home.

While the Spurs have been a long-time nemesis, the Clippers are "growing up" and now have a big-time coach of their own.

There are a few key things I like about how this one sets up for the Clippers though.

I like the fact that Chris Paul, who is the "straw that stirs the drink" in LA, is off a monster game. He had 38 points and 12 assists last time out.

I also like that the Clippers were 26 of 31 from the free throw stripe in that game.

While they're off a long road trip, I like the fact that the Clippers were able to sleep in their own beds last night. While its admittedly a small sample size, note that the Clippers are undefeated (SU) on the season, when returning home after playing two or more games on the road.

While both teams had yesterday off, the Spurs had previously played four games in the past five days. This will still be their fifth game in the past seven days, all five games at different venues. That stretch began in Toronto, several thousand miles from where they're playing tonight.

Note that the Clippers average 111.2 points per game on this floor (103.7 overall) and that the Spurs are only 31-42-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when facing a team which scores 99 or more points per game.

The Clippers are 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were home underdogs of three or fewer points, winning six of those outright. They've also quietly covered four of their last five against the Spurs. I expect them to rise to the occasion here. 10*

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I won with the Nets in their last game. Deron Williams returned and had a big game and the Nets beat Boston. The Clippers are off a win over those same Celtics. However, that came last night, while the Nets were resting. I believe that sets things up nicely for Brooklyn again tonight.

Last night's win for the Clippers was both "hard fought" and "emotional." It was hard fought as the Clippers had to erase a 9-point deficit and as the lead changed five times in the third quarter. They were still up only two points with three minutes remaining. It was emotional as it marked Doc Rivers' first game back in Boston.

While this is another big "reunion" game for Rivers, I believe his team may be a little worn out. This will mark LA's third game in four nights and its sixth game in the past nine nights. All six of those games came in a different city, too.

Conversely, this will just be Brooklyn's fourth game, during the same stretch. Not only did the Nets have last night off, they also had two days off, prior to Tuesday's win over Boston.

The Nets played the Clippers tough at LA last month, losing by seven. That was a game without Garnett, Pierce, Williams or Lopez. All those players are now back. Note that Williams' teams are 14-5 against Paul's teams, when the two former first round picks have gone head-to-head.

While they covered the last time that they were in that situation, the Clippers remain a poor 7-15-1 ATS (10-13 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. I'll grab the points but am expecting an upset. 10*

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Celtics check in as the hotter team and with the better overall record. However, I feel that the Nets are favored for good reason.

As you very likely are aware, these teams made a huge trade with each other in the offseason. Garnett, Pierce and Jason Terry all came over from Boston. So far, that trade hasn't worked out too well for the Nets. They've struggled while the Celtics are on top of the division. Needless to say, both teams will really want this one.

The Nets are expected to see the return of Deron Williams and perhaps Pierce, as well. While its true that it may take some time for everyone to get used to each other, I do expect Williams' return to provide an immediate boost.

Note that the Celtics, who are 0-3 ATS their last three off a double-digit win, remain without Rondo.

Also, note that the Celts have had one day off in between games while the Nets have had two days off. Additionally, while the Nets have tomorrow off, the Celtics will be playing a big game against their former coach's (Doc Rivers) new team.

The Nets are off an 8-point win, one which saw Lopez put up 32 points. I believe they bring more to the table and I expect them to come away with the win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. With Kobe soon set to return, we may not see the Kings favored over the Lakers again for awhile. Kobe isn't expected to be back quite yet though - and I believe the Kings are favored for good reason tonight.

While the Kings haven't been getting the "W's" to show for it, they have been playing well of late. I backed them last game and they nearly came back to beat OKC, losing by only two. In fact, three of the Kings' last five losses came by a combined five points and another came in OT.

The only "bad" loss during that stretch came against these same Lakers. However, that was at LA and the Kings were off a 1-point heartbreaker vs. the Clippers the previous night.

This time, they're at home and well-rested. They're 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they hosted the Lakers and I look for them to get some payback tonight. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Off seven straight wins, the Nuggets enter as the hotter team. However, the Cavaliers are off a victory of their own and they've also got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here.

The Nuggets got a remarkable 72 points from their bench last night. So, its true that none of the starers logged heavy minutes. They still had to play though and will now be playing their third road game in the past four days.

Note that the Nuggets are 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing the second of back-to-back games. They lost both by double-digits, 122-111 at Houston and 114-103 at Phoenix.

Even with last night's cover, the Nuggets are still only 3-4 as favorites this season. They're also still just 5-7 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The Cavs got back on track with a much-needed win last time out, taking down Chicago in the process. They've since had plenty of rest in between games, probably a good thing for Bynum and the team in general.

Yes, Andrew Bynum is still around. In fact, the 7-foot center is off a monster game. He had 20 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks - his best effort in recent memory.

Bynum figures to carry the momentum into this evening; he's averaging 24.8 points and 11.8 rebounds his last four games against Denver. He scored 30 the last time he faced the Nuggets.

You may recall that Bynum blocked 10 shots in a game against the Nuggets that season too, 11% of their shots.

At the time, Kobe Byrant said this of Bynum's performance: "His timing was impeccable today. He really understood the rhythm of their offensive players. He was just there at the exact moment, either to change or block the shot."

Kyrie Irving, who has averaged 24 points and 7.3 assists in three career games vs. Denver, is certainly pleased to see Bynum playing well. He said this of the Cavs' big man: "When you have someone you can throw it down to, you know he can get his shot when he wants. He draws so much attention. It opens up a lot of opportunities for all of us."

I'll take the points but I look for the Cavs to put together back-to-back wins for the first time, snapping Denver's winning streak in the process. 10*

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I believe the Pelicans are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off a 1-5 road trip, the Bulls figure to be seeing red here. They've been a MUCH better team at home though, unbeatable in fact. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a big win.

Speaking of "bouncing back," the Bulls have been excellent at doing just that, after getting upset in their previous game. In fact, they're 22-10-1 ATS (27-6 SU) the last 33 times that they lost, when favored, their previous game. The last time that they were in that situation, they responded with a 20-pooint win.

While the Bulls had yesterday off, the Pelicans were busy upsetting the Knicks, at MSG. In addition to the back-to-back spot, they'll be playing their third game in the past four nights.

Of course, losing Anthony Davis last night didn't help matters. Davis, who hurt his hand in the first half yesterday, averages 19.6 points, 10.6 rebounds (both best on the team) AND he leads the league in blocked shots.

While the Pelicans were able to overcome Davis' injury last night, it figures to catch up with them here.

Without Davis, the Pelicans will be forced to rely more on Ryan Anderson. However, he's only shot 28.6%, including 20.6% from 3-point range, his last five against the Bulls.

While the Bulls are 2-8 on the road, they're 5-0 at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of greater than 12 points per game here. Given the situation, I expect another double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on OKC. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Thunder had last night off, the T-Wolves were busy beating the Mavs, at Dallas.

The Wolves are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they played the second of b2b games, most recently losing by double-digits against Houston.

Off six straight wins, the Thunder are rolling. While they only won by one last time out, the previous three wins had come by an average of 14 points.

The T-Wolves should have OKC's full attention. That's because they hammered the Thunder back on 11/1, at Minnesota.

The Thunder are 34-24 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They beat the Wolves by 16 last time the teams met here and by 22 the previous meeting here. Overall, they're 22-13-1 ATS (27-9 SU) the last 36 meetings, when listed as the home team. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to continue that dominance this evening. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Both teams are expected to be without a key player. The Rockets will likely be without Harden. The Grizzlies will be without Gasol. Playing at home, I believe the Grizzlies will be the team best able to overcome that loss.

The Grizzlies didn't fare too well last time out, getting blown out by the Spurs. The Spurs are very tough though and that was the first game back home from a road trip, which can sometimes be a tough spot. The Grizzlies have that first game back out of the way now and the Rockets aren't quite yet in that class as the Spurs, at least not without Harden.

True, the Rockets fared well with without Harden last time out. However, they were at home and facing a Minnesota team which was playing its fourth game in the past five days. This time, they're on the road against a rested opponent. Note that Houston's only road game without Harden resulted in an outright loss at Philadelphia.

Prior to the loss vs. the Spurs, the Grizzlies had won four straight, including road wins vs. the Clippers and Warriors. So, they'd really started to play well. They've also been solid at bouncing back from a bad loss so far this season.

While the Rockets are 2-3 SU off a win by 10 or more points this season, the Grizzlies are 3-1 SU when off a loss by 10 or more. I expect them to respond with their best effort, en route to a win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Rockets looked pretty dominant last night, showing the type of potential that they have. That was at home against a weak Boston squad though. Tonight, they're on the road against an instate rival, one which has revenge on its mind and one which is currently playing very well on its home floor.

While they lost at Houston a couple of weeks ago, the Mavericks are a perfect 5-0 at home. They've outscored teams by an average of 110.8 to 100.2 here.

On the other hand, the Rockets are giving up 112 points per game on the road, scoring 112.8 themselves. Overall, they're allowing 106.2 per game.

Note that the Mavs are 28-17 ATS (29-16 SU) their last 45 against teams allowing greater than 99 points per game.

The Mavs have dominated the Rockets here in recent seasons and I expect them to finish on top again tonight. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavaliers haven't gotten off to a very good start at the betting window. However, this should be a great spot to get back on track with a big win.

The Cavs are 0-6 on the road, including a loss at Charlotte. However, they're a perfect 3-0 here at Cleveland. True, all three wins were "close." However, that figures to change against a Charlotte squad which averages only 89.5 points per game on the road, while shooting just 38.5% from the field.

Even with the earlier loss at Charlotte, the Cavs are still a profitable 22-12 ATS their last 34 against Southeast division teams. That includes a 122-95 destruction of the Bobcats the last time the teams met here, a game in which the Cavs were laying six points.

Including that destruction, the Cavs are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were a host in the series. All four of those victories came by double-digits. Looking to avenge the earlier loss, I expect the Cavs to put it all together en route to another blowout tonight. 9*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. As you may be aware, these teams faced each that at Philadelphia last night. The Cavaliers got off to a quick start but the 76'ers fought back and finished with a comfortable 94-79 win. Back on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Cavs to return the favor.

While the 76'ers may have won their lone road game, road wins are still likely going to be hard to come by for them this season. I'm still not sold on this team, one which lost back-to-back games by double-digits before last night.

The Cavs are 2-0 at home and they've held opposing teams to 93 points on 38.1% shooting here. The teams they beat (Brooklyn and Minnesota) were both arguably far more talented than the one they'll face tonight.

The 76'ers are just 6-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. During that span, the Cavs are 2-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

With a pair of road games on deck, I believe the Cavs could really benefit from a one-sided win - and that's exactly what I expect them to get. 10*

I'm playing on PORTLAND. This is the front end of a home and home series between these teams. Playing on their home court, I expect the Blazers to hold serve this evening.

This is a step down in class for the Blazers. So far, they've played two games on the road and their two home games have come against San Antonio and Houston. Sacramento isn't in the same class as either of those clubs. While the Kings did eke out a home win on opening night, they've lost all three games since.

The Kings lone road game resulted in a double-digit loss. They had a 34.5% field goal percentage while allowing their opponent (GS) to connect on better their 51% of theirs.

The Blazers are 3-1 SU/ATS as a host in the series the past couple of seasons. All wins came by double-digits, most recently an 18-point blowout here last December. While the Kings could give them a good battle tomorrow, I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. I played on the Clippers last Thursday. However, I'm going against them here.

Last Thursday, the Clippers were playing at home. They'd had the previous night off. And, they were facing a team (Golden St) which had played the previous night. Tonight, the shoe is on the other foot. The Clippers lost at Orlando last night. They're on the road. And, they're facing a Miami team which had last night off.

The Clippers are now 1-2 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 105-101.

The champs have had their wake-up call. Since dropping a pair of early road games, they've won back-to-back games, each win coming by a minimum of nine points. Now, playing a National TV game against a team they could potentially meet in the Finals, I look for the Heat to be fully focused and to be at their best.

The Heat are in one of their better roles here. They're 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) their last nine as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. During the same stretch, the Clippers are 10-12-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The Clippers beat the Heat 107-100 at LA last season. However, the game here at Miami resulted in a 111-89 victory for the Heat. I expect home court to again prove important, the Heat holding serve with a solid win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The 76'ers got off to a terrific 3-0 start, surprising nearly everyone. That included a victory over these same Wizards, at Washington. The 76'ers came back down to earth in a big way in their last game though, as the Warriors came in here and hammered them. Facing a Wizards team determined to avenge last week's loss, I expect the 76'ers to stumble once again.

Philadelphia's Spencer Hawes had this to say about the 76'ers last game: "There's no beating around the bush, they beat the heck out of us."

Not only should the Wizards be motivated by "revenge," they should desperate just to win a game. They're off to a disappointing 0-3 start and they've got some far more difficult games on the horizon. Their next one comes against an improved Brooklyn team. After that, they play road games at OKC, Dallas and San Antonio. Needless to say, none of those games will be easy. That makes taking care of business tonight all the more urgent.

Philadelphia coach Brett Brown knows the Wizards are going to come out a determined bunch. He had this to say: "They're going to want to make amends, we're going to have a much more difficult game."

Although they came up short, the Wizards are off arguably their best performance of the season. They fought hard against Miami, trimming a 23-point lead to seven.

Washington coach Randy Wittman noted: "This is how we've got to play. Nobody wants to lose but I thought we took a good step in the right direction."

This has been one of the Wizards' best roles the past couple of seasons, as we find them at 30-16 ATS the last 46 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. I believe that they bring a little more to the table and I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 10*

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Lakers have gotten a couple of wins without Kobe. However, they got hammered by 31 points in their lone game away from LA and I expect them to struggle again tonight.

The Mavs also lost their lone road game. However, they're 2-0 here at Dallas, winning by nine and 12 points. The 12-point win came in their most recent game, a 111-99 victory over Memphis.

Now, the Mavs get to face an LA team which has long given them trouble. I don't expect them to show the Lakers any sympathy/mercy because Kobe isn't in the lineup. They'd like nothing better than to kick the Lakers while they're down.

Note that the Lakers are an awful 15-33 ATS the past couple of seasons, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game.

The Mavs are in one of their better roles. Indeed, they're 13-4 ATS (16-1 SU) the past couple of seasons as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

During the same stretch , the Lakers are 3-10 ATS (1-12 SU) as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. During that stretch, they're an ugly 28-54-1 ATS on the road overall, 23-38 ATS as underdogs overall. I expect a double-digit win for the well-rested home team. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. At first glance, it might seem a bit funny to see the undefeated 76'ers catching this many points on their home floor. However, while the 76'ers have certainly off to a great start, I believe the visiting Warriors are favored by this many for good reason.

I successfully played against the Warriors in their only road game this season. However, that was vs. the Clippers and the Warriors were off a game the previous night. That's not the case here. The 76'ers aren't nearly as talented as the Clippers, nor are the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back games. Even including the Halloween loss at LA, the Warriors are still a lucrative 46-34-1 ATS on the road, the past 2+ seasons.

With the Warriors averaging 112.7 points and the 76'ers averaging 110, we're seeing a very high O/U line. While every season is obviously different, that hasn't been a good situation for the 76'ers over the years. Indeed, they're just 5-17-1 ATS the last 23 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more, going 15-33-1 ATS their last 49 with an O/U line of 210 or more overall.

While the 76'ers are 13-20 ATS (9-24 SU) against teams which average 99 or more points, the Warriors are 29-18 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when facing a team which allows 99 or more points per game. Facing their first Western Conference foe of the season, I expect the 76'ers to get a dose of reality. 10*

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. Many are going to see this matchup and automatically assume a victory for the Nuggets. I don't think we should be so quick to that though.

True, the Nuggets made the playoffs again last season. However, they also lost in the first round, again. That led to some major offseason changes. When the smoke cleared, the Nuggets lost both George Karl (the reigning Coach of the Year) and general manager Masai Ujiri, the Executive of the Year. Even Ujiri's assistant, Pete D'Alessandro, left.

Introduced as the new general manager, Tim Connelly immediately stated this his first priority was re-signing star player Andre Iguodala. That didn't happen though, as A.I. left for Golden State.

Brian Shaw was a hot commodity and was probably a good hire at coach. However, he's got an entirely different philosophy from Karl. So, we can't necessarily expect immediate success.

In addition to losing Iguodala, the Nuggets also start the season without Danilo Gallinari, another of the team's top scorers. While Kenneth Faried (hamstring) is probable, Ty Lawson (groin) is currently questionable.

The Kings also have seen some offseason changes. However, while I believe the Nuggets are likely going to take a step back this season, I like the moves in Sacramento.

I like Malone's attitude at coach. I like that he ripped the team after a poor practice on Monday, letting them know they need to get serious. Immediately.

Lets not forget that the Kings' home record was actually better than the Nuggets' road record last season. I expect them to tip things off with a win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. While Game 6 didn't go the way I wanted, it was certainly exciting. I also believe that it sets up Game 7 very well.

One could easily use stats to make a case for either team. I believe homecourt and confidence/momentum will prove more important than anything else.

Having seen how close the Spurs were to winning Game 6 and knowing that they covered the entire way, many bettors will likely be quick to grab the points.

I believe that the Spurs had their opportunity though and that they won't get another one on Thursday night.

Losing in that fashion figures to be deflating for the Spurs. Winning in that manner has to make the Heat feel invincible.

There is certainly a lot of pressure on Lebron and the Heat. Now, in my opinion, the Spurs will also be feeling the pressure.

This entire series, in the eyes of most, the Spurs have been underdogs to win the title. However, that changed they were up double-digits in the second half of Game 6 - and leading the way they were in the final minute. The series was theirs.

Despite failing to cover Tuesday, the Heat are now 46-7 at home, outscoring opposing teams by more than 10 points.

After a number of close games early in last year's Finals, the Heat closed out the Thunder with a 15-point win in the final game of the series. I won't be surprised to see another double-digit win here. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. You guys know the story-line already. The champs are down 3-2 but heading home. They're off a blowout loss and now need to win two in a row. Some are writing them off but I expect them to pull it off.

Lets remember that the Spurs were 23-18 on the road in the season while the Heat were 37-4 at home. Lets also remember what happened last game here - a 103-84 blowout win for the champs.

Including their last loss here, the Spurs are a modest 6-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series and only 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

Including that Game 2 victory, the Heat are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were trailing in a playoff series and 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

While the Spurs have obviously had excellent success in the Finals over the years, the Heat are still the defending champs. And, as we hear Rudy Tomjanovich proclaim before each of these games: "Don't ever underestimate the heart of champion." I'm not going to do so. With James at his best and an improved defensive effort, I expect the Heat to extend the series, covering the number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. As you're surely aware, the Spurs dominated Game 3 and have a 2-1 lead in the series. While I lost with them last game, I'm not writing off the champs yet.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were trailing in a playoff series. They've been in that situation twice this season, most recently in Game 2 of this series. They responded with a 103-84 win. When trailing the Bulls, they responded with an even bigger blowout, winning 115-78.

Its also worth noting that the Heat have won 22 of 30 - and seven of their last nine - after a double-digit loss.

Its worth noting that Parker is reported to have a hamstring strain. While I won't necessarily count on it effecting his play, its definitely not going to help him.

Lebron had this to say about tonight's game: "Something has to give tomorrow night. They have a championship pedigree. They have four titles. We have two. So something has to give. We'll see what happens. We

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Heat dominated the second half in Game 2 and I believe that they'll carry the momentum into Game 3.

The Heat were the best team in the league this season and when they play like they did in the second half of Game 2, they're very hard to beat - regardless of venue.

The Heat are typically at their best when tied in a series, going 9-3 ATS their last 12 in that situation, 4-0 ATS their last four.

While it wasn't the case the previous season, this year's Miami team has excelled when listed as an underdog. Its been as if they feel that, as champions, they should always be favored. Indeed, they've been listed as underdogs seven times this season and they rose to the occasion with outright wins in six of those. I expect them to be all business again tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. Down a game and desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole with three games at San Antonio to follow, the Heat are ready in a "must win" situation. I expect them to respond with their best game.

The Heat, who haven't lost two straight home games all season, have been in this situation before. In fact, in the previous three times that the Heat opened a playoff series with a Game 1 loss, they won the following four games. It happened last month against the Bulls in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Heat are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they attempted to avenge a home loss and 16-9 ATS their last 25 in the "revenge role" overall. They're also 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were trailing in a playoff series.

The Heat understand how important this game is. Wade had the following to say: "It's very urgent. Obviously you don't want to go down 0 2 going to San Antonio for three straight games. Odds are not that good. They are not in our favor. We're not a team that really says too much like, 'This is a must win game.' But this is a must win game."

I expect James, Wade and co. to "up their game," play with a sense of urgency and ultimately earn a win and cover. 10* Finals GOY

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Spurs had a much easier time in the Conference Finals than the Heat did. They swept the Grizzlies while the Heat were forced to go to seven games against the Pacers. The Heat were fortunate with the schedule though. Despite going the distance vs. Indiana, they still get a couple of days off before the finals start. That means that they should be well-rested, which isn't always the case for a team that goes to Game 7.

On the other hand, the Spurs are playing with a lot of extra rest. They last played way back on 5/27. I won't be at all surprised if there's some "rust." Note that they're just 1-3-1 ATS the last five times that they were off a SU win as an underdog.

The Heat know first hand that an extended break isn't always an advantage in the first game of a series. When playing with multiple days between games, they lost outright vs. Chicago and needed OT to beat Indiana by a single point

While the Heat are 0-2 ATS when playing with extended rest in the playoffs, they're 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) the last 12 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. The last time (5/13) they were in that situation, they went on the road and beat Chicago by 23 points. In the first round, when playing with two day's rest, they won and covered vs. the Bucks, another double-digit win.

The Heat, 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, have been dominant here all season and both their last two games here resulted in double-digit wins. I believe they've had their wake-up call and I expect them to bring their "A-Game" right out of the gate. Ultimately, I expect that to least to another convincing win and cover. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Heat didn't look too good last game and find themselves in a must win situation. I expect the defending champs to respond with their very best effort.

The Heat are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were tied in a playoff series, going 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 in that situation.

Note that the Heat are also 12-6 ATS (15-3 SU) the last 18 times that they were off an "upset" loss.

On the other hand, the Pacers were just 5-9 ATS this seasons, when off a SU win as an underdog.

It should also be noted that the Pacers are just 10-20 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range.

Bottom line: The Pacers deserve a lot of credit and have already accomplished more than they did last year. I don't believe they're ready to take the next step though. I expect Lebron and co. to bring their A game and to ultimately earn the win and cover. 10* main event

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Grizzlies certainly would have preferred to steal a game at San Antonio. They're not out of it yet though. Returning home, I expect their very best effort.

Not only are the Grizzlies 11-2 ATS in the playoffs, they're now 5-0 ATS when trailing in a playoff series.

The Grizzlies are also in one of their best roles, as we find them at 11-2 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're 23-11 ATS (26-8 SU) in that role the past few seasons.

The Spurs are obviously tough - but the Grizzlies have enjoyed success against them here. Since the start of 2011, they've won seven of nine against the Spurs here, covering in six of those games.

The Grizzlies, who are allowing a mere 87.2 points per game this season, have held the Spurs to double-digits in scoring each of the last seven meetings here. I expect another strong defensive effort here to ultimately lead to a win and cover. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Pacers proved that they can play with the Heat in Game 1. That'll likely have many "grabbing the points" in Game 2. I believe the situation favors the Heat though.

The Pacers know that they let one get away in the opener. That was their chance and they couldn't capitalize. Vogel and co. can claim otherwise but I believe that its going to be hard from them to bounce back here.

On the other hand, the Heat know that they barely escaped Game 1. I believe the fact that they won such an emotional affair will provide them with positive momentum here.

The Heat were dealing with a long layoff - longer than the Pacers - in Game 1. Now, they've received their "wake up call" and will be playing on "normal" rest. I expect them to be better.

As Bosh noted Thursday: 'We're going to play a lot better. We've come to expect that of ourselves. We know that yesterday wasn't the championship effort that we need in order to win the series, let alone win the finals. We're going to have to do a much better job on defense and on offense to take care of the basketball, do a better job on the boards, do a better job of containing some of their actions."

Miami backups Allen, Battier and Cole combined to go 2 for 16 last game. Their numbers should improve with the Heat cutting down on turnovers at the same time.

Even with the cover in Game 1, the Pacers are still 15-20 ATS as underdogs, 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. In fact, they're an ugly 9-19 ATS their last 28 in that role.

The Heat, on the other hand, remain a solid 10-6 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. One of those victories came in the regular season meeting against the Pacers here. Laying 6.5 points, the Heat won by 14. I expect another double-digit win. 10* Eastern Finals GOY

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Needless to say, both teams have played well. The Grizzlies are a bit more of a surprise to some - as they weren't really expected to be here. However, beating the Clippers wasn't all that big a surprise and the path through OKC became a lot easier when Westbrook went down. That was no longer the 3-Headed Monster that we'd seen in recent years, Durant, Harden and Westbrook. Rather, it was just Durant and the defensive-minded Grizzlies were able to shut him down. The Spurs are an entirely different type of team though. They've got multiple weapons. Veteran leadership and smarts on the floor. Playoff experience. Outstanding coaching. All areas the Thunder are (arguably) lacking in.

If the Spurs have a potential flaw, its that they're "old." However, they've had two day's off in between games - and are playing at home. Fatigue should not be a factor. Note that they're 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Note that the Grizzlies were only a mediocre 3-3 SU/ATS when playing with three day's rest in between games this season.

The Spurs are smart enough to know that they can't afford to have any kind of letdown here. Parker noted: ''We understand as a team that those opportunities are very rare, and we have another great one right now. We have home-court advantage against a very good team, so we have to take full advantage of it.''

The home team won all four regular season meetings. The Grizzlies won by only two and three points in the two at Memphis. However, the Spurs won by four and 21 in the two here at San Antonio, an average margin of 12.5 points. I expect another win and cover this afternoon. 10* main event

I'm playing on OKC. The Thunder are certainly in a hole. With their backs to the wall, I expect them to be at their very best tonight.

A couple of recent losses notwithstanding, the Thunder are still 106-68-1 ATS their last 175 when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting.

This is just the second time all year that the Thunder have dropped three games n a row. The last time it happened, they responded by going 3-0 SU/ATS their next three games, winning by 16, 30 and 45 points!

Coach Brooks had this to say of his star Kevin Durant: ''One thing about Kevin, he's going to come back and give everything he has. He's not an excuse guy. He's not going to blame anything on nobody, other than put the pressure on himself to perform every night. That's what makes us a good team, because of that attitude that he has.''

'Brooks went on to say: "We want to be able to win in front of our home fans and have another game in Memphis and see what we can do there. I like our ability to come back in tough situations, within games and even to the next game. This is obviously not the greatest position to be in but we still have a chance to be a part of history. There's not a lot of teams that have come back from 3-1 but we have the talent, we have the teamwork, we have the effort and teamwork to do it.''

While it remains to be seen whether or not the Thunder can come all the way back, behind a big performance from Durant, I at least like them to take the first step tonight, covering the small number along the way. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. These teams have alternated victories in the series, the Warriors covering three of four. After the Spurs eked out a win in the opener, the Warriors responded with an upset win in Game 2. That was followed by a double-digit victory by the Spurs. Once again, the Warriors answered, winning Game 4 in OT. I expect that trend to continue and for the Spurs to be the team which answers the bell in Game 5.

With the win/cover in Game 3, the Spurs are now an outstanding 20-9-1 ATS (21-9 SU) the last 30 times that they were tied in a playoff series.

The Spurs have a few other favorable stats going for them. Over the past few seasons, they're 17-11 ATS (22-6 SU) off a double-digit loss and 40-29-3 ATS (50-22 SU) when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting.

Note that the Spurs are also 10-6-1 ATS (15-2 SU) as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, going 26-15-2 ATS (38-5 SU) their last 43 in that role.

Perhaps most impressive, the Spurs are 12-5 ATS (14-3 SU) the last 17 times that they were off an "upset" loss, going 26-13 ATS (30-9 SU) in that situation the past few seasons.

Although they played well here in the first two games, the Warriors are still a sub-500 team on the road. They were able to gain energy from the home crowd in Oakland last game but won't have that advantage here.

Bottom line: I still believe that the Spurs are the more complete team and I expect them to take care of business Tuesday. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on OKC. While they don't have Westbrook, the Thunder have been here before. They were also trailing 2-1 vs. the Grizzlies in the 2011 series and had to play Game 4 here at Memphis. It wasn't easy (triple-OT!) but they wound up winning that game. I feel that they're again providing us value here.

Kevin Durant had this to say: ''Same situation we was in a few years ago, so we know how to handle it. We can't come into practice today and with our heads down moping around because we lost the basketball game. We just got to keep moving forward, keep fighting and we'll be fine.''

Durant went on to say: "I have to put them in better position I have to make shots to free them up. I have to continue to help their confidence grow every time down. I got to do a better job. That's how I look at it.''

Even with the Game 3 loss, the Thunder are still 57-34 ATS (61-30 SU) the past few seasons, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting.

The Thunder are 17-7-1 ATS the last 25 times that they failed to score more than 85 points in their last game. It only happened once all season - and that was in their very first game - they responded with a 14-point win in their next game, scoring 106. With Durant leading the way, I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* main event

I'm playing on MIAMI. I won with the "under" in Game 1 (didn't play the side) and stated that "Miami might be a little rusty after the long layoff." Still, while not "shocked," I admit that I was surprised that they lost the game outright. Rust won't be a factor tonight though. Neither will complacency. Having received their "wake up call," I expect the Heat to be at their best tonight.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra had this to say:

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. The Grizzlies covered in the opener. However, they squandered a golden opportunity to steal the outright victory. I believe this situation favors the Thunder.

Many will look at Game 1 and see that the Grizzlies easily could have won. That will cause them to back them here.

However, it often doesn't work that way. Second chances don't always come around. The Grizzlies had their chance to win the opener and they didn't take advantage of the opportunity.

Now, the Thunder have had their "wake up call." I expect them to be better than they were in the opener.

Despite failing to cover on Sunday, the Thunder are still a profitable 12-3 ATS (13-2 SU) the last 15 times that they faced a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game.

The Thunder have beaten the Grizzlies six of the last eight here at OKC. Prior to Sunday, the previous five of those victories all came by at least seven points.

The Grizzlies did manage to steal Game 1 when these teams met in the 2011 playoffs. However, the Thunder came back a solid 111-102 victory in Game 2. I expect another win and cover here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Both teams played well in the opening round. The Warriors upset the Nuggets. The Spurs dismantled the Lakers. I expect the Spurs to be the team which keeps on rolling this evening.

A look at the season series reveals that the home team won all four games. The Warriors won both at Golden State but the Spurs won both at San Antonio, most recently a 104-93 win on 3/20.

Speaking of double-digit victories, all four of the Spurs' victories in the first round came by double-digits.

The Spurs have long dominated the Warriors here. In fact, the Warriors haven't won here in well over a decade - since Duncan was still in college.

While Curry is obviously an outstanding shooter, I believe the Spurs simply have more weapons. In addition to the "Big 3," Kawhi Leonard has developed into a star.

The Spurs are 25-14-2 ATS the last 41 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, going 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 in that role.

Note that the extremely well-coached Spurs are 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. They outscored teams by greater than 10 points per game this season.

While the Warriors are in unchartered waters, the Spurs have been here plenty of times. They swept their second round matchup (vs. the Clippers) last year, covering three of those games. That sweep began with a 108-92 victory in Game 1 and was followed by a 105-88 blowout in Game 2. I expect them to start things off with another double-digit win tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets have their backs against the wall and find themselves in a "must win" situation. I expect them to respond with their very best game of the series.

Mark Jackson said this of the Nuggets: "They have a great coach. George Karl is going to have them prepared too, so we're anticipating the biggest fight of the season we've had all year on our hands.''

True, they failed to cover in Game 1, when the O/U line was 211.5. (It dipped to 208.5 in Game 2.) However, even with that ATS loss, the Nuggets are still an outstanding 12-2 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, going a perfect 14-0 SU in those games.

The Nuggets have lost three games in a row, failing to cover in four in a row. They haven't lost four in a row all season and they also haven't failed to cover five in a row all season. The only previous time that they failed to cover four in a row, they responded with an outright win (as an underdog) at Indiana in their next game.

Lets keep in mind that the Warriors were 19-22 on the road this season and that prior to this series, they were 3-18 their previous 21 games without David Lee in the lineup. Lets also remember that the Nuggets were 38-3 at home. I expect them to force a Game 6, earning the cover along the way. 10* main event

I'm playing on INDIANA. I successfully backed the Hawks in Game 3. As you likely know, Atlanta won that game in blowout fashion. I never did state that I thought the Hawks were a better team though. Rather, I just didn't think that they were going to get swept and felt that they might be a little more hungry. After getting embarrassed last time out, I expect the Pacers to bring their "A Game" and for that to be enough to result in a win/cover.

As I acknowledged in my Game 3 analysis, the Pacers have struggled here at Atlanta. However, this is arguably the best Indiana team in a long time, a stronger and more complete team than the one which lost many games here. I feel that they're ready to break through with a win here.

Admittedly, the Pacers were pretty bad in Game 3. However, lets not get carried away by one Game 3 loss. The Pacers know all about that. Last year, they crushed the Miami Heat (94-75) in Game 3. However, the Heat responded by dominating every game the rest of the way.

I believe that the well-coached Pacers are also very capable at responding to a poor Game 3, as they're usually at their best off a bad loss. They were 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit defeat.

On the other hand, the Hawks were 7-12 ATS off a double-digit win, falling to 24-35 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. Note that they were also 1-5 ATS off a game in which they allowed 85 or fewer points.

I expect the Pacers to exorcise their "Atlanta demons," taking a stranglehold on the series. 10*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I won with the Pacers in Game 1 of this series. As you're likely aware, they followed it up with another convincing win in Game 2. However, with the series shifting to Atlanta for Game 3, I expect the "desperate" Hawks to respond with a victory of their own.

Coach Larry Drew had this to say: "It's about adjustments. We've done some good things in the first couple of games, but there are some things we need to do better. Some changes may push us over the edge in that respect."

Admittedly, the Hawks had trouble covering large pointspreads here this season. However, they did still manage a 25-16 SU record here. Note that record is considerably better than Indiana's 19-21 mark on the road.

When the pointspread was smaller, as it is today, the Hawks had much better success. In fact, they were 3-1 ATS when listed as home favorites of three or fewer points.

On the other hand, some might be surprised to learn that the Pacers are a dismal 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, going just 5-13-1 ATS in that role the past few seasons.

Back in their own building, the Hawks should have plenty of confidence, as they have dominated the Pacers here. In fact, they've beaten Indiana 11 straight times here. A closer look reveals that every single one of those wins came by a minimum of three points. I expect more of the same here. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on DENVER. The fact that the Warriors "kept it close" in Game 1, nearly pulling off the upset, will have many looking to grab the points here. I'm not one of them.

While there are obviously examples on both sides, its been my experience that road teams which squander an opportunity to "steal" Game 1 often don't perform as well in Game 2.

Making matters worse for the Warriors is the loss of David Lee. After recording yet another "double-double," Lee went down in the fourth quarter of Game 1.

Think that's not a blow? Consider that Lee led the NBA in "double-doubles" with 56 this season. He averaged 18.5 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Golden State coach Mark Jackson noted: "We can't replace him, and we know that. And that's the thing we have to know right away. He's an All-Star power forward who's had an incredible year ... "

While the Warriors are now without Lee, the Nuggets are expecting to have Kenneth Faried back in the lineup. The player nicknamed ''Manimal'' provides an "energy boost."

Andrew Bogut said this of Faried: "He's an all-effort guy. It's not like they're going to throw the ball into the post and let him get a one-on-one. That's not his strength. His strength is offensive rebounds, hustle points, loose balls. He's one of the best in the league in doing that."

While the Warriors are 19-24 on the road, the Nuggets are now 39-3 at home. That includes a 28-14 mark at the betting window.

Despite failing to cover in Game 1, the Nuggets are 19-9 ATS against teams which average 99 or more points per game. They got their "wake up call" in Game 1 and I expect them to "bounce back" with a double-digit win tonight. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. Neither of these teams played particularly well down the stretch. Atlanta lost its final two regular season games and five of its last seven. The Hawks are only 2-8 ATS their last 10. Indiana hasn't been any better. The Pacers lost their last three games and five of their last six. They were 0-6 ATS during that stretch. Playing at home, I believe that the Pacers will be the team which is able to bounce back and return to form.

Homecourt is important to almost every team and that's certainly the case for both of these clubs.

The Hawks were 25-16 at home but only 19-22 on the road this season. On the other hand, the Pacers were 30-11 at home, going 19-21 on the road. They outscored teams by a 97.6 to 89.9 margin here. Visiting teams shot just 41.2% here.

Not surprisingly, given the above stats, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season. The Pacers won the two games here by an average of 8.5 points.

Despite the late season struggles, I believe that the well-coached Pacers will be ready to go. Indiana coach Vogel had this to say: ''The guys are really dialed in. Everything out of your mouth, they're nodding their heads and they're coaching themselves.''

The Pacers have only lost three in a row one previous time in 2013. After dropping three straight in late January, they responded with a 98-79 victory. I expect this well-coached team to again bounce back, picking up the cover along the way. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams faced each other four times during the regular season, most recently about three weeks ago. The Bulls won that 4/4 meeting, which was played here at Brooklyn, by a score of 92-90. The Bulls also won both meetings at Chicago, while losing the first game at Brooklyn by four points.

Including those results, the Bulls are 13-8 ATS the last 21 times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, going 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation.

Meanwhile, the Nets are 8-15 ATS their last 23 as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, going 6-9 ATS their last 15 in that role.

Overall, the Nets were 16-23-2 ATS here while the Bulls are 23-17-1 ATS on the road.

While the Bulls sometimes struggled against lower tier competition, they were typically tough against better teams. They finished the season at 24-21 ATS (25-20 SU) against teams with a winning record, going 70-52-1 ATS (72-51 SU) against winning teams the past few seasons.

On the other hand, the Nets often had their way against weak teams but were only 14-24-1 ATS (15-24 SU) against teams with a winning record.

While Deron Williams may (arguably) be the best player on the floor, I believe that the Bulls have more depth and a more complete team. Perhaps more importantly, I also believe that they've got an edge in the coaching department.

The Nets weren't able to beat the Bulls by more than four points in any of this season's meetings, three of those being decided by four or less. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Although this is technically a "meaningless" game, I expect both teams to want to win it. That said, I believe the Bobcats will want it a little more. Throw in the fact that they're also currently playing much better and I believe this low line is very fair.

Note that Charlotte's overall home record (14-26) is four games better than Cleveland's 10-30 mark on the road.

The Cavaliers would like to close out their season with a victory. There's a chance that Byron Scott won't be around next season and the players would likely want to send him out as a winner.

I believe the Bobcats have more to play for though. With a victory here, the Bobcats can win three in a row. A win here will also give them a chance to pass Orlando (teams are currently tied) and to avoid having the worst record in the league.

Charlotte guard Gerald Henderson had this to say about avoiding last place:"We want to take care of that. It's not been one of our goals to start the season, obviously, but it's become a smaller goal for us as we've come down the stretch."

The fact that the Cavs have won both this season's meetings should provide the Bobcats with a little extra incentive too, as they look to avoid the series sweep.

Motivation aside, the Bobcats are simply playing much better than the Cavs right now. While Cleveland had lost five straight and 15 of its last 17, Charlotte has quietly won seven of its last nine at home. I expect the Bobcats to "keep on rolling," as they close out the season with another victory, providing the home fans with some hope that next season may finally be different. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Its been another difficult season for the Bobcats. However, they've played well at home in recent weeks and I feel this will prove to be a good spot for them.

The Bobcats last game resulted in a 10-point win over the Bucks, on Saturday. They had yesterday off. Including Saturday's victory, they're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four home games and 6-2 SU/ATS their last eight here.

The Knicks have fared quite when playing the second of back-to-back games. However, I believe that this is worse than a "typical" back-to-back spot.

Not only are the Knicks off a big game vs. the Pacers yesterday, they're also their fourth game in the past five days. This will also now be their ninth game in the past 14 days.

Given that grueling schedule and with their home finale (vs. Atlanta) on deck and throw in the fact that they've now locked up the #2 seed in the East, I feel that they're going to have trouble remaining fully focused on the lowly Bobcats.

I would feel that was going to be true, regardless of who was in the lineup. However, the already banged-up Knicks are also likely going to rest a number of regulars.

After yesterday's win, Carmello Anthony was quoted saying: "It was a big game for us so now guys can get their rest, I can get my rest and come back full speed ready for the playoffs."

I expect the Bobcats to be the far more motivated team here and look for them to come away with the cash. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Knicks saw their winning streak come to an end last night, falling in OT at Chicago. While many will expect them to immediately bounce back, I won't be surprised to see them lose two in a row.

While they've been solid when playing the second of back-to-back games, an OT loss on national TV is a little harder to bounce back from than a "regular" loss. Thats particularly true with a number of players still banged-up.

Note that the Knicks haven't fared too well as small-medium sized road favorites.

The Cavs, who got Dion Waiters back last game, have covered three of their last four and four of their last six. Despite an 0-2 SU mark, they've played the Knicks tough in both this season's meetings. Those games were decided by only six combined points.

Even with a loss here last month, the Cavs are still 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in this series. They're also 4-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* best bet

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers are in one of their better roles here. They're 20-11 ATS (23-8 SU) the past few seasons when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes a 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) mark their last nine in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight.

While the Nets are a respectable 22-17 on the road, the Pacers are a very strong 30-9 at home. A victory tonight will officially clinch the third seed.

The Pacers play with "double-revenge" here, as the Nets have defeated them in both previous meetings. That should provide some added incentive. Note that the Pacers are 7-4 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss.

Even with the earlier victories over the Pacers and a win vs. Boston on Wednesday, the Nets are still a poor 13-24-1 ATS (14-24 SU) against teams with a winning record this season. That includes a 5-11 ATS mark their last 16 against winning teams.

After dropping two straight, the Pacers got back on track with a win vs. Cleveland on Tuesday. The fact that they didn't cover in that game has helped to keep this line slight lower than it potentially could have been.

Note that that Pacers, who also get tomorrow off, are 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) when playing with two day's rest in between games. Looking to lock up the third seed and looking to avenge the earlier losses, I expect another win and cover tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Hornets have won both meetings this season. However, I believe this one sets up nicely for the Kings to exact some revenge. Note that both of the first two meetings were played at New Orleans.

While the Kings have had the past two nights off, the Hornets are off a hard-fought game vs. the Lakers, a contest where they really left it all on the floor.

Off that "meaningful" game, one which they were leading with seven minutes remaining only to fall short, I feel it will be tough for them to get up for this "meaningless" one. Note that the Hornets may be without Eric Gordon and/or Grevis Vasquez.

For the Kings, I don't expect it to be meaningless though. For starters, the Kings haven't been swept by the Hornets this entire millennium. I believe that avoiding that "feat" will provide them with some added motivation here.

Additionally, the Kings hit the road for three games after this, before playing their last game vs. the Clippers. In other words, this is their best chance to give the fans one last victory.

A win here can bring the Kings to .500 (20-20) at home and would put them in a position to potentially finish with a winning record here. (The Hornets are 11-28 on the road.)

The Kings, who nearly beat Memphis in their most recent game here, are 17-4-1 ATS (17-5 SU) the last 22 times that they were a host in this series. I expect them to be both the "fresher" and the "hungrier" team here and for that to lead to another win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Nets have failed to cover in two straight games and are now 1-4 ATS their last five. I expect them to have their hands full again tonight.

Some of you may recall that we backed the 76'ers when they beat up on the Nets at Philadelphia last month. Despite being listed as an underdog, Philly won that game by a score of 106-97.

The 76'er also played the Nets tough here in the lone meeting at Brooklyn, losing 95-92, back in late December.

Its true that the 76'ers are now officially playing out the string. However, they've known that the playoffs weren't in the future for some time (long before getting mathematically eliminated) and they've still been playing hard.

Coach Collins said this of his team: "I'm incredibly proud at how hard they've played every single night. We've competed and we've had some really tough losses but we can only grow from that.''

While they did get blown out at Miami on Saturday, tote that the 76'ers have won four of their last six game outright. The other loss came by only five points. In other words, they'd be 5-1 ATS their last six, if they were getting as many points as they are this evening.

Note that the 76'ers are 14-7 ATS when off a double-digit loss.

Its true that the Nets are trying to secure fourth place in the East, which makes every game important. However, with a big game at Boston on deck tomorrow night, I believe that Brooklyn may not be fully focused on the "lowly" 76'ers. Note that the Nets are a dismal 4-12-1 ATS the last 17 times that they played the front end of back-to-back games.

Its also worth noting that the Nets are only 5-14 ATS when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. So, "revenge" hasn't been much of a motivating factor for them.

The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. They're also 4-8-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range.

The 76'ers are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they were a guest in this series, including a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five. I expect their best effort, en route to at least another cover. 10* best bet

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Suns have opened as underdogs here. I'll happily take whatever points are being offered. However, I expect them to win this one outright.

I successfully backed the Suns in their last game. While they ultimately lost the game, they easily covered the spread. They're stepping down in class here and I feel a similar effort will result in a SU victory.

While the Suns 16-23 home record isn't overly impressive, its considerably better than the Hornets' 10-27 mark away from New Orleans.

Not surprisingly, the home team has won both meetings this season. The Hornets won by nine when the teams met at New Orleans in February. Earlier in the season, the Suns won by three points here at Phoenix. Note that it was the Suns who were favored for the previous game here - they were laying 5.5 points.

While the Suns are off a cover, the Hornets are off back-to-back double-digit losses. They're now 1-4 SU/ATS their last five. Going back further finds them at 0-8 SU/ATS their last eight road games.

Obviously, neither team is going to make the playoffs. In cases like this these, motivation often plays a pivotal role in determining which team will cover. In this case, playing at home and looking to snap an extended losing streak, I believe that the Suns will be the "hungrier" team.

Why do I expect the Suns to be more hungry? A closer look at the schedule reveals that this is their second last home game of the season. After this, four of their final five games come on the road. Their lone remaining home game, after this one, comes vs. Houston. Needless to say, the Rockets are a better team than the Hornets. In other words, this game offers the Suns their best chance to give the home fans a victory. They're aware of this and I believe it will prove to be a motivating factor.

The Suns have beaten the Hornets twice in a row here and are 5-2 SU their last seven as a host in the series. 10*

I'm playing on PORTLAND. In terms of making the playoffs, the Mavericks certainly have more to play for. They're desperately trying to catch up and get into the 8th spot. The Blazers, on the other hand, are already eliminated from postseason contention. That will likely have many wanting to back the Mavs here. I feel the Blazers are going to be very hungry though and that we're going to get their best effort tonight.

Admittedly, the Blazers haven't played too well in recent days. However, lets not forget that their 24-15 home record is far superior to the Mavs' 15-24 mark on the road.

While the Mavs won both meetings at Dallas, the Blazers defeated them in the lone meeting here at Portland.

After a poor performance on Friday, Portland coach Terry Stotts said this of his team: "It's definitely a downer. To have a losing streak at this time of the year and playing against playoff teams, it's a difficult task. In general, I've found that most players bounce back pretty well and we'll bounce back Sunday."

The Blazers have LaMarcus Aldridge back and that's a big plus for this team. Aldridge was excellent in his first game back, scoring 32 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Now the team has had a game with him in the lineup, which should help them here.

Wesley Matthews said this of the team's motivation level: "It's not even about the playoffs. We've got to play like this is the blessing it is."

The Mavs are just 7-12 ATS the past few seasons as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, including a 1-3 ATS mark in that role this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

While they fought hard, the reality is that the Mavs aren't likely going to make the playoffs. This is the Blazers' chance to really put the nail in their coffin. They've won five of the last seven series meetings here and I expect them to step up and score the upset tonight. 10* best bet