Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on LA. The Nuggets hung around for the cover last game. However, I believe that the Clippers are the more complete team and I expect them to pull away in this one. Both teams have allowed a nearly identical number of points, per playoff game. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 112.8 ppg in the playoffs while the Clippers have allowed 112.9. However, on the other side of the ball, Denver is averaging just 108.6 while LA is averaging a whopping 121.6. Even with the non-cover last time out, the Clippers are still 38-29-1 ATS (50-18 SU) when laying points. The Clippers won by 23 in the first one. I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I've had a pretty good read on this series. Through the course of the six games, I've successfully backed both the Thunder AND the Rockets. I've also won with both the 'under' AND the 'over.' Last game, we saw a scrappy OKC team which refused to quit, when facing elimination. OKC was the more desperate team and played like it. However, in Game 7, both teams will be "equally hungry." Throw out that motivational edge which they enjoyed in Game 6 and I believe that the Thunder are overmatched. Paul had a fantastic Game 6, turning back the clock. He's still very capable. However, he's not Harden and his supporting cast is prone to struggling. While the Thunder have to work hard for many of their buckets, the Rockets can often score with relative ease. While the Thunder are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were tied in a playoff series, the Rockets are 4-2 ATS when tied in a series, during the same span. When this series was tied at 2-2, Houston won by 34. I say the cream rises to the top once again, the superior team (Rockets) digging deep and advancing while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on OKC. After Saturday's blowout win by Houston, most are writing off the Thunder. That sentiment, in turn, has led to a generous pointspread. I feel that's providing excellent value with what I believe will be an extremely determined OKC team. Keep in mind that the Thunder tend to thrive as underdogs. Even factoring in Saturday, they're 50-30 ATS their last 80, when getting points, 27-14 ATS on the season. Prior to Saturday, the Thunder had beaten the Rockets twice in a row. They still believe that they can do it. The OKC offense will be much better in this one, as the Thunder shot terribly Saturday and can only improve. Backs to the wall, expect the Thunder to give the Rockets all they can handle, taking this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on LA. The Blazers pulled off the upset in Game 1 and are clearly as dangerous a #8 seed as we've seen in a long time. Probably ever. Lebron and co. aren't about to just roll over though. The Blazers were still 37-39 on the season as compared to LA's 52-20. Their Game 1 win/cover notwithstanding, the Blazers are still just 14-20-2 ATS as underdogs. Lebron didn't get the help from his supporting cast that Lillard did in the opener. I expect that to change in Game 2. And, if it doesn't, I expect James to take matters into his own hands, willing his way back in the series, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Obviously, I respect the Raptors. They've got talent, playoff experience and they're very well coached. That said, this is a lot of points and the Nets have been playing very hard. They've covered four straight and six of seven. The last two meetings between these teams saw Brooklyn win by 10 points and Toronto win by only one. While the Nets have thrived in the underdog role, the Raptors are just 3-8-1 ATS the past 12 times that they played with two days rest in between games. Grab the points and don't be surprised when the Nets give the champs a tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While the bubble experience has NOT been a good one for the Grizzlies, they still control their own destiny. All they need to do is win this game and they're into the 8/9 play-in-series. If they lose, the Grizzlies would need plenty of help as they'd also require the Suns and Spurs to lose. Needless to say, they don't want to rely on that. As Coach Jenkins said: “I told the guys we’ve got one game left, we’ve got to try to find a way to play our best game at this point. We’ve got to lay it on the line. Whatever’s been in the past is in the past.” The Bucks have already secured top spot in the East. I say Memphis "finds a way."

I'm playing on OKC. The Suns have obviously been great in the bubble. However, lets not forget that the Thunder still boast the superior record. The Thunder still won both previous meetings this season. While the Suns are 12-17 ATS as favorites, the Thunder are 24-12 ATS as underdogs. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 47-26 ATS, when getting points, the past few seasons. The Thunder did play yesterday but it was a relatively easy win, as they were up big by halftime. Meanwhile, while OKC gets tomorrow off, the Suns will have a showdown against the 76ers. The Thunder are 16-8-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 220 or above. Grab the points and expect AT LEAST another cover Monday afternoon. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Clippers sat their top weapons down the stretch against the Blazers yesterday, seemingly not interested in winning - or perhaps even trying to give Portland the 8th spot, as that hurts the Lakers more. Yet, they won anyway. With games against Western Conf. opponents (Denver and OKC) on deck, I don't see them being highly motivated to win this one in a blowout. Yes, the Nets have now clinched a spot and will be a little short-handed themselves. However, unlike the Clippers, they had yesterday off. They can take a page out of LA's book about how to keep fighting with the backups in, too. With the Clips at 3-6-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b days, I say this one proves closer than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Suns have gotten off to a great start here. I believe it comes to an end here though and that the Pacers, who have also gotten off to a great start of their own, are favored for good reason. In fact, that great start for the Suns has worked in our favor, keeping this line a little lower than it could easily have been. Remember, the Pacers are 42-26 while the Suns are 29-39. The Suns allow 113.9 ppg while the Pacers allow just 107.5. Speaking of those records, the Suns are still 10-20 SU their last 30 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 31-9 SU (24-14-2 ATS) their last 40 against sub-500 teams. The Pacers won by 25, at Phoenix, in this season's earlier meeting, holding the Suns to a mere 87 points. I expect another win and cover this afternoon. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Spurs are off a hard-fought win, a game which came down to the wire, against the Grizzlies. While the Spurs have been solid this season, when playing the second of b2b games, this is a unique situation, being that they're still recently back to play. Remember, this will also be the Spurs' third game in four days. That said, I expect yesterday's game to take a toll on them today. The 76'ers, 6-4 SU/ATS when off a loss, allow 107.7 ppg compared the Spurs' 114.9 ppg allowed. I believe that superior defense combined with the scheduling advantage, will ultimately prove the difference. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This is a huge game for both teams. The Spurs won their first game back while the Grizzlies dropped theirs, in OT. Memphis is still in the driver's seat though and knows it just needs to take care of its own business. I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies, despite the loss. Coach Taylor Jenkins agreed, noting: "I thought our guys executed beautifully on the offensive end. The message (for) our guys is to keep our heads up — we’ve got to learn from this and get better for the next game on Sunday...." The reality is, in my opinion, that the Spurs will not be going to playoffs this season. Expect the Grizzlies, who have taken two of three meetings, to take care of business once again, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. While the Bucks may be the favorite for this game and to win the East, I believe the Celtics should have an advantage in this one. The Bucks closed their practice facility due to corona virus. As of this writing, they are not expected to reopen prior to leaving for Orlando. The Bucks are also scheduled to arrive in Orlando a day later than Boston, as the Celtics are among the first batch of teams scheduled for travel. Once in Orlando, all players will have to remain in their hotel rooms until they test negative on consec. days, 24 hours apart. So, the Celtics should have had more practice time prior to traveling to Orlando and they'll also get out of their rooms first. The Celtics won the first meeting, way back in October and the Bucks won by only five, in January. The Celtics are very well-coached and I look for them to take this entire experience seriously. Center Daniel Theis had this to say: "I know that our team, our players are going to follow the rules ..." I expect a focused Boston team and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks were on the right side of a double-OT game here against Charlotte on Monday. Those are the type of wins which a team can build positive momentum from. A visit from the road-weary Knicks, who were involved in a track meet at Washington yesterday, figures to be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to do just that. Note that the last time that the Knicks played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine. Including that result, the Knicks are an ugly 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The lone 'push' was a 5-point loss, here at Atlanta. That was also the lone 'push' in the Hawks 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) record as home favorites. Schedule in their favor, expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Off three straight losses, the last two coming on the road, a home date with the Hornets is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks. The Hawks haven't been favored all that often here this season but they've made the most of those opportunities, when they have come up. In fact, prior to a loss here a week ago as a small home favorite against Memphis, the Hawks had been 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS when listed as a home favorite. Its also worth noting that the Hawks are 4-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in their previous three or more games. The Hornets have quietly covered six in a row. They're just 7-13 ATS over the years after having covered their previous five or more, 2-4 ATS after having covered their previous six. The Hawks, who won by 15 in this season's previous meeting, are 5-1 ATS when having trailed their previous game by 20 or more at halftime. Going back further finds them at 10-4 ATS their last 14 in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Monday evening. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. After getting embarrassed by the Clippers last game, the Rockets will be looking to take out their frustration on someone. Facing a team which they have dominated, I expect them to do exactly that. A look at the recent meetings between these teams reveals that the Rockets have won the last seven. Five of the last six victories, including each of the past two, have come by double-digits. Off b2b very close losses, the Hornets, 9-20 at home, are vulnerable to getting blown out here, in my opinion. Those close losses can take a toll. (The Hornets are 1-6 SU off a loss of three or less.) The Rockets are 13-5 SU the past 18 times that they were off a loss of 15 or more points, including 3-1 SU/ATS the past four. They're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they were off a game where they trailed by 15 or more at halftime. Expect them to be all business from the opening tip in this one. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I really like how this one sets up for the Wizards. They're off a blowout loss at Portland to close out a 1-3 trip out West. Now, however, they're back home for what is expected to be a track meet with the Hawks. As of this writing, the O/U line sits at 246.5. That suits the Wizards just fine; they're 20-10 ATS the past 30 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 230 or greater. While the Wizards have tomorrow off, the Hawks, 10-18 ATS (6-22 SU) as road underdogs, have a game against Memphis tomorrow. Considering that those same Grizzlies just hammered them 127-88 at Atlanta, thats a game that the Hawks could easily get caught looking ahead to. These teams have split this season's first two meetings. In both cases, the home team won by double-digits. Expect another win and cover for the home team in this one. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Talk about lack of respect. The Rockets are 21-8 at home while the Clippers are 17-13 on the road. Yet, the oddsmakers are telling us its a coin-flip (pick'em) game. Just needing to win, I feel that the Rockets are offering us excellent value. While the Clippers could easily get caught looking ahead to a showdown vs. the Lakers, the Rockets have Charlotte on deck. Nothing to get caught looking ahead to there. The Rockets have taken two of three meetings on the season and they're 16-9 SU/ATS against winning teams overall. They won the earlier game here by nine. Even with a loss to open the month, they're a dominant 26-5 in the month of March the past two seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pacers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, I won with the Pacers when these teams played a few weeks ago. However, that was at Indiana and the Bucks were without the league's best player. Here's an excerpt from what I said that day: "While the Bucks have shown that they can win without Giannis, they're obviously not as dangerous without him. He'll be out tonight, after the birth of his first child. I expect the Pacers to take full advantage of his absence. Yes, the Pacers are just 2-6 ATS their last eight. However, they're also 9-1 ATS the past 10 times that they had failed to cover six, or seven, of their previous eight games. During that span, the Pacers are also 13-6-1 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite, 2-0 ATS off b2b upsets as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS after b2b upset losses as favorites. Throw in the fact that the Pacers are 5-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss of 20 or more and the home team gets it done tonight." Of course, things are different now. The Bucks are back home and Giannis is back. When the Bucks hosted the Pacers earlier, they won by a score of 117-89. Off a loss and playing with revenge, the Bucks are going to be more dangerous than ever. They're 14-6 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were off a road loss, in a game where they were favored. Overall, they're 32-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an upset loss, 13-3 ATS off an upset loss by double-digits. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers won't get Lillard back for this one, as they had hoped earlier in the week. Of course, this is reflected in the line, as we wouldn't be getting the Blazers as a big underdog otherwise. While its possible he'll be back next game, the Blazers can't wait for their star. They need this game to salvage at least something from their trip. They've fallen back in the West and can't afford to fall back any further. The Magic are a team which they can absolutely compete with. While Orlando is 5-5 its past 10 games, none of the five wins came by more than 10 points. Two came by less than five. Last time, the Magic lost by one. This one could easily also come down to the wire and this is a lot of points to be getting. Note that Portland has won the last six meetings with the Magic. The last time that Orlando won a game in the series was January of 2017 and that win came by only six. Looking back further finds that Orlando has won seven of the past 20 meetings but that none of those wins came by more than 10. Beating the Blazers is never easy for them and they'll be facing a desperate team in this one. Yes, the Magic would obviously like to avenge a December loss in Portland. However, they're just 7-19-4 ATS their past 30 in the revenge role. That includes an ugly 1-18-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge from a road loss. So, thats not exactly a motivator for them! With a 20-7 record their past 27 against teams from the Southeast, look for the Blazers to bring their best effort, at least taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. While the Spurs will be without Aldridge, they've still got more than enough to take care of business at home against an Orlando team which is playing its second game in two days. Yes, Aldridge does a lot. DeRozan and co. can carry the load for a game which the Spurs badly need. It should be noted that Orlando is just 1-8 SU and 2-5-2 ATS, when playing its second game in two days. The Spurs, who have had the past couple of days off, play with revenge from an earlier 2-point loss at Orlando. They're 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Prior to the 2-point loss, the previous meeting between these teams saw San Antonio win by 39. While the Spurs likely won't win by that many tonight, I do expect them to ultimately pull away for another comfortable victory. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Raptors recent destroyed the Pacers. The Pacers turned around and hammered the Hornets. So, that should mean that the Raptors beat the Hornets by even more, right? While its possible, that type of logic rarely works in sports handicapping. While those results have helped us by providing an extra generous line, this is an entirely new game and matchup. I expect the Hornets, who have since responded to the Indiana loss by beating NY, to give the champs a tough game. Note that the last time these teams met, the Raptors won by only two points. In fact, three of the past four meetings between these teams have been decided by two points or less. The Hornets have actually won four of six overall, too. A look at Toronto's last eight games reveals that only two resulted in wins of greater than 11. Grab the points and expect another close one. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Both teams lost on the road last night. The Knicks fought hard until the end but lost at Charlotte. The 76ers got blown out at Cleveland. While the Knicks' loss was "normal," the 76'ers' loss was unacceptable. There's no way they should get hammered by a team like Cleveland. Back home and still stinging from that loss, they should be ready to take out their anger on the Knicks tonight. The 76ers have actually won seven of their last eight, when playing the second of b2b games. The last time that they were in that situation, they beat Memphis by 12. The last two times that the 76ers were off a double-digit loss, they immediately followed it up with a double-digit win. While they're without Simmons and likely Embid (having MRI today) the 76ers have more than enough talent and pride to bounce back once again. Expect them to do just that. 

I'm playing on UTAH. Tough spot for the Celtics. After a hard-fought game against the Lakers on Sunday, they played at Portland last night. That makes this their third road game in the past four days. Don't expect the Jazz to show them any sympathy. The Jazz, 15-5 SU and 12-6-2 ATS against teams from the East, have dropped three straight and they got embarrassed last time out, losing by 20 to the Suns, right here in front of their home fans. That's inexcusable. Like the Pacers last night, who were also off an embarrassing loss, I expect the Jazz to respond with a huge effort. Note that the Jazz are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off an upset loss by 15 or more, when they were a home favorite. They're also 15-8 ATS (17-6 SU) the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three or more consecutive games. Knowing that they'll face these same Celtics, at Boston, on 3/6, look for the Jazz to take advantage of the favorable schedule and to take care of business on their home floor.

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hornets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Pacers were humiliated at Toronto on Sunday and are going to be in an extremely angry mood. Indeed, that was an ugly loss, as the champs beat them by 46. Thats noteworthy as Indiana is a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss of 20 or more points. That includes a 6-2 ATS mark when off a road loss of 20 or more. The Hornets are also off a pretty bad loss of their own, as Brooklyn beat them by 29, at Charlotte. They don't seem to have the same type of pride as the Pacers though, as they're just 1-6 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss of 20 or more. Going back further finds them at an ugly 11-29-1 ATS (9-32 SU) in that situation. The Pacers have won the last two meetings by double-digits and they won the last meeting here at Indiana by 22. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Jazz are going to be an angry team. They're 3-0 SU/ATS when off a double-digit loss at home, in a game where they were favored. Going back further finds them at 9-4 ATS their last 13 in that situation. The Suns, on the other hand, are 8-14 ATS (5-17 SU) when off a victory. While they won a close one at Phoenix earlier, the Jazz have beaten the Suns 10 straight times here and those games haven't been close. Eight of those victories came by double-digits, including each of the past four. The Suns are just 5-12-1 ATS (4-14 SU) when attempting to avenge a loss of three of less. I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Jazz. 

I'm playing on OKC. I won with the Thunder and I'm coming back with them again today. The Spurs won here earlier this month, after the teams had split this season's first two meetings, at San Antonio. However, even with their win here and a victory at Utah in their last game, the Spurs remain a poor 10-19 away from home. That makes OKC's 18-12 home record look pretty good. Note that the Spurs are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off two or more consecutive road wins. The Thunder are 16-9 ATS their last 25 in the revenge role. They're also 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were home favorites of six or less. Additionally, they're 10-2 ATS when off a double-digit win, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home win. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. You may recall that Doncic and Young were traded for each other on draft night, in 2018. So, they'll always be linked together and whenever they meet, its going to be a big deal. Both are having huge seasons and both were starters in the All Star Game. The Mavs won the earlier meeting, at Dallas. However, Doncic didn't play in that one and Young left partway through with an ankle injury. Tonight, both are ready to go. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect Young and the Hawks to have the advantage. Note that Young scored a career high 50 last time out, the Hawks winning outright against Miami. They since had yesterday off. The Mavs, on the other hand, will play their second game in two days. The Hawks have quietly won five of their last six games here overall, the lone loss coming by single digits. The only two teams to beat them here since 1/20 were Boston and Toronto and both those games were close. They've also beaten the Mavs six straight times here and seven of the last eight. While Doncic will surely do his thing, expect Young and co. to ultimately get (at least) the cover. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. I believe that the Pistons are catching the Bucks at the right time. Fresh off the All-Star Game/Break, Giannis and co. may not be fully focused on the lowly Pistons. That's particularly true with a big home game against the 76'ers on deck. Yet, they're being asked to lay a massive number on the road. Note that they're just 1-3 ATS over the years, when favored by more than 12.5 points on the road. During that span, the Bucks are also an ugly 49-68-2 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, a 1-2 ATS mark their last three in that situation. The Pistons, who play with double-revenge, will be anxious to stop the bleeding and to avoid getting embarrassed, like what happened last time (12/4) the Bucks visited. Grab the generous points and expect the Pistons to give their guests a much tougher game than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Clippers won a close one when these teams met at LA earlier. I believe homecourt will again prove the difference. While the Clippers are a mediocre 15-12 on the road, the Celtics are a dominant 22-5 at home. LA outscores teams by a 114 to 111.4 margin on the road. Boston outscores teams by a 115.9 to 105.9 margin here at home. The Clips are 3-5 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics are 6-4 ATS as home favorites of six or fewer points. With the Celts also 8-3 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a road loss, I'm laying the short number. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. While the Bucks have shown that they can win without Giannis, they're obviously not as dangerous without him. He'll be out tonight, after the birth of his first child. I expect the Pacers to take full advantage of his absence. Yes, the Pacers are just 2-6 ATS their last eight. However, they're also 9-1 ATS the past 10 times that they had failed to cover six, or seven, of their previous eight games. During that span, the Pacers are also 13-6-1 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite, 2-0 ATS off b2b upsets as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS after b2b upset losses as favorites. Throw in the fact that the Pacers are 5-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss of 20 or more and the home team gets it done tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is the first of two meetings between these teams this month. They'll close out February with a game at Boston on 2/29. Tonight's game, however, is at Houston and that favors the Rockets. The Celtics are an outstanding 25-9 at home but they're only 15-10 on the road. Likewise, the Rockets are 15-12 on the road but a much better 18-8 here at Houston. The Rockets swept last year's series, including a 14-point win here at Houston. The Celtics are off seven straight wins but they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they'd won their previous seven. Off b2b losses, the Rockets are going to be extremely hungry. Look for them to take care of business, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. This is a lot of points to be giving a capable Suns team, one which recently hammered Houston, one which is 11-7 ATS in the road underdog role. The Suns' last two losses have both come by single-digits. They're playing with double-revenge here, which should provide some added motivation. Both LA victories came by 10 points or less. The last time that the Lakers played at home, they lost by 10 against the Rockets. (The same Rockets that Phoenix handled.) Since then, they won by only five against the Warriors. The Suns have played them tough and I look for the Lakers to have their hands full again this evening. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the Hawks have the schedule working in their favor. They had yesterday off while the Celtics are off a hard-fought win, at Detroit, less than 24 hours ago. This will now be the Knicks' third game in the past four days. The Hawks haven't forgotten that the Knicks hammered them, at MSG, back in December. This is a NY team which they can beat and the Hawks are going to be itching for some payback. Expect them to improve to 20-14 ATS when playing with revenge from a game where the opposing team scored 110 or more. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Blazers continued their impressive surge with a comeback with over the Spurs last night. Tonight, they'll take on a rested, motivated and revenge-minded Jazz team and I expect an exhausting recent schedule to catch up with them. Sure, the Blazers just beat the Jazz, when they were also playing their second game in two days. While that was impressive, it was also at Portland. Doing it here in Utah will be far tougher. The Jazz, 3-1 SU/ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge a double-digit road loss, allow just 103.8 ppg here. Note that this is also Portland's third game in the past four days, the first of those coming in the elevation of Denver. Endured in their worst losing streak in nearly four years, expect the desperate Jazz to give us their very best effort tonight, rising to the occasion with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Zion Williamson, who is currently expected to play after reportedly spraining his toe last game, is obviously a special talent. However, he also brings a lot of hype and I believe his Pelicans are over-valued this evening. Consider that the Pelicans are a bigger favorite tonight than they were when they hosted the Bulls less than a month ago. Of course, the Bulls are a better team at home, than they are on the road. They just lost three straight but all those were on the road. Last time on this floor, they beat the Spurs. Note that Chicago is 6-3 ATS its last nine, when off three straight road losses and 7-3 ATS its last 10, when off b2b double-digit road losses. While the Bulls allow 106.2 ppg at home, the Pelicans allow 117.3 ppg on the road. The last two meetings here were both decided by six or less. I see this one also being close and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Enough is enough. The T-Wolves badly need a win and the Hawks, the team with the worst record in the East, present them with the perfect opportunity to get one. The Wolves already won comfortably, at Atlanta. This is a team which they know they can beat. The Wolves' last loss came by just four, at Sacramento. Thats noteworthy as they're 5-2 ATS when off a loss by six or fewer points. Admittedly, home wins have been few and far between for Minnesota. Still, the Hawks, who are giving up an average of more than 125 ppg over their last five, are only 8-18 ATS (5-21 SU) on the road. Note that for Atlanta this game is sandwiched between a home-and-home set with the Celtics. I say the Wolves finally break through with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Winnable home games are few and far between for the Cavs these days. This is one that they can win and I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Cavs are currently 0-3 on their 4-game homestand. They're going to really want to salvage something and I expect a highly motivated effort. The fact that the Knicks hammered them here only a couple of weeks ago will provide even further incentive. Note that Cleveland is a solid 9-6-1 ATS its last 16, when attempting to avenge a home loss of 20 or more points. Off an upset of the Pacers, the Knicks should be ripe for a letdown. They're 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU) when off an upset (SU win as an underdog) win. Cavs roll. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. With the Pelicans suddenly a popular team, thanks to Zion Williamson, we now get the Rockets at a much lower line than we could have otherwise. I feel thats providing excellent value with the still superior team. Note that Houston is 17-12-2 ATS as a home favorite of six or less, the past 2+ seasons. Consider that the Rockets were laying -12 points the last time these teams met here. The last meeting overall was at New Orleans on 12/29 and the Pelicans hammered the Rockets. The Rockets haven't forgotten. Off a 7-point win against Dallas, note that Houston is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) its last four off a division win and 16-8-2 ATS (21-5 SU) its last 26 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. I believe that this game will mean a lot to the Pistons. This will be the third time that Coach Casey has faced the Raptors, since Toronto won the NBA title. The first game was way back on 10/30. Still riding the high from their title, the Raptors won by a dozen. Then, in mid-December, the champs came in here and won by 13. Casey wouldn't be human if he didn't feel a bit of bitterness towards the Raptors, a team he had a lot of success coaching, before getting fired. I believe his players will play hard for him tonight. While the Pistons had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a game against the Cavs. Yes, the Pistons have failed to cover four in a row. However, the last time that they had failed to cover four straight, they responded with a double-digit win at Boston. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the Pistons' best effort tonight.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs have already lost twice by 20 points to the Raptors this season. I feel that they'll be motivated to avoid having it happen for a third time. Both those previous games were at Toronto, this is the first meeting of the season here at Cleveland. The last time that the Raptors played here was last March. The Raptors were favored by -8.5 points but the Cavs won outright by 25. After that game, Love commented: "That was a great win for us. Especially against a real good team at home. It was fun." You may recall that game. Not only was it a major upset but there was a brawl. I feel it may have the Cavs a little extra fired up for tonight. The champs, who will be without Gasol for this one, are 0-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -12 point range. While Toronto plays at Detroit tomorrow, the Cavs have tomorrow off. Their full focus will be on tonight's game. I expect them to give the champs all they can handle with a real shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I won with them last game, the Hornets are not a good team. Back on the road, I expect them to stumble again. These teams have split a pair of meetings so far this season. In each case, the home team won by seven points. For the game here at Washington, the Wizards were favored by six points. We're getting them at a lower number this evening and I feel thats offering very fair line value. After losing their last two games, both on the road, by 19 and 20 points, the Wizards are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. They're 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit losses and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark when off b2b losses of 15 or more points. While the Hornets average 100.9 ppg on the road, the Wizards average 115.2 ppg at home. Expect them to take advantage of the winnable game, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. While I'm happy to grab any points available, I expect the Blazers to win this one outright. I really liked what I saw from Portland in its win over Indiana. Lillard has been on fire of late and he's tough to stop when he gets on one of those rolls. Now, McCollum is also back. Speaking of injuries, Harden has missed the past two games for Houston and is a gametime decision. I'm not counting on him being out - but he could be at less than 100%, if he goes. Either way, I expect a highly determined effort from the Blazers. They are right on cusp of punting on the season or fighting for the playoffs. I don't think the players are ready to quit. They need this win and I expect them to dig deep and get it. Look for the Blazers to improve to 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off four or more consec. games where they gave up 110 or more points. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Home wins have been hard to come by for the Hornets this season but this is a great opportunity for them to get one. While the Hornets haven't been good here, the Knicks have been even worse on the road. Charlotte gets outscored by an average score of 111.1 to 106.2 here. Not good. But the Knicks are much worse away from MSG, getting outscored by an average score of 113.8 to 103.6. Though they covered the big spread against the Bucks, the Hornets lost by double-digits for the third straight time. Thats only happened one previous time this season and they responded with a win and cover. They're now 4-1 ATS off two or more consec. double-digit losses. The Hornets are well rested and they dont play tomorrow. (The Knicks host Memphis tomorrow.) They're sole focus is on getting a rare win. I look for them to get it. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Yesterday, I successfully played against the Lakers, a Western Conf. team which was at the end of a fairly long road trip and facing an Eastern Conf. opponent. This evening, its the same situation but instead we'll play against an Eastern Conf. team which is at the end of a fairly long trip out West. Indeed, this will be the Pacers' fifth road game in the past eight days. The fact that they won three of the first four games, including each of the past two by double-digits, could make them a little complacent here; the trip has already been a success and it'd be easy to get caught thinking ahead to "getting home." Just ask the Lakers. Note that Indiana is 3-7 SU/ATS the past 10 times it was off b2b double-digit road wins, 0-2 SU/ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. There should be zero complacency on the part of the Blazers. Times are getting desperate and they know they need all the wins they can get. Thats particularly true with four tough Western. Conf. opponents (Houston, LA, Utah Denver) on deck. They need this game. Facing an Indiana team which they've swept each of the past two seasons, I expect the Blazers to take care of business. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lakers are at the end of a long road trip. I expect it to catch up to them here. The 76ers are going to be in an angry mood after losing to Toronto. A win against the high-flying Lakers would be just what the doctor ordered. Keep in mind that they're 11-4 ATS (12-3 SU) the past 15 times that they were off a road loss against a division rival and 11-3 SU/ATS off a double-digit divisional loss overall. The 76ers hammered the Lakers 143-120 the last time the teams played here. In fact, they've won four of the past five meetings and the lone loss came by just three points. Expect AT LEAST another cover from the highly motivated home team this evening. 

I'm playing on NY. Off their big win over the rival 76'ers, I feel it'll be easy for the champs to suffer a bit of a letdown against lowly New York. That'll prove costly, however, as the Knicks are playing well right now. In fact, they've covered the spread in three straight. While the Raptors have indeed won five straight, they're just 12-21-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off five or more consec. victories. The Knicks haven't forgotten an earlier 28-point loss at Toronto. They're 9-5 ATS the past 14 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points and that includes a 4-1 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a road loss of 20 or more. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle tonight. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Cavs have the schedule working for them here. They come in well-rested while their guests played last night. Not all back-to-back spots are created equally. The Wizards could have easily gone through the motions last night. If they'd suffered a blowout loss, they'd probably be ready to come out strong tonight. However, that didn't happen. Instead, to their credit, the Wizards left it all on the floor. Playing at one of this season's toughest venues (the Heat are now 20-1 at home!) the Wizards took their hosts to OT. Ultimately, Miami won by a 134-129 score. That type of hard-fought loss will take a toll, mentally and physically, on the Wizards tonight. It'll be tougher for them to get up for a game against a Cleveland team playing out the string than it was for last night's game. Beal logged 38 minutes last night, one of four Washington players which was on the floor for 32 or more. The O/U line for this game is in the low 230s, as of this writing. That suits the Cavs just fine. They're 5-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater and 3-0 ATS when that line climbs to 230 or more. Winnable games don't come around often in Cleveland these days. Look for the Cavs to take advantage of tonight's opportunity. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Thunder met when these teams met at OKC earlier. However, playing on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Magic to have the edge here. The Magic are 8-3 ATS in 2020. Listed as small favorites, they're 13-7-1 ATS (17-4 SU) when laying points. The Thunders are 11-10 on the road. Off a win against former teammate Westbrook and the Rockets, they could easily be ripe for a letdown. Visting teams average a mere 99.8 ppg here. Expect the Magic, currently 7th in the East, to come ready to play, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, when off a divisional road win. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While they're off a hard-fought win yesterday afternoon, the Suns were resting, waiting for them. Yesterday's win was a battle the entire way and it came against a Miami team which had recently defeated them. This time, however, its the Spurs' opponent which will be playing with "revenge." Indeed, the Suns haven't forgotten that the Spurs beat them by two points in each of the last two meetings. This season's previous game came in mid-December, the Spurs winning 121-119 in OT. Those are the ones you don't forget and you can be sure the Suns have had this one circled. That 2-point loss on 12/14 was part of an 8-game losing streak for the streaky Suns. They're playing better now though. In fact, they've won four of their past five including an upset win at Boston last time out. Not only are the Suns 5-1 ATS when off an upset victory, they're 17-6-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss where the opposing team scored 110 or more. Schedule in their favor and knowing that they're going to have to face these same Spurs in a few days, at San Antonio, look for the revenge-minded Suns to take care of business tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While both teams played last night, I expect the Bulls' homecourt advantage to prove significant in this one. Note that Cleveland's game was arguably more taxing than Chicago's last night as the Cavs were close the entire way. The fact that they lost at Cleveland earlier (and that they know they'll play again at Clev. in a week) will help to provide some added motivation. The Bulls are actually 4-2 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, this will be the third time that the Cavs played the second of b2b games already in 2020. The first two instances resulted in losses of 15 and 25 points. Expect a blowout.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Nets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the 76ers are going to be in an angry mood. Not that they need any but additional motivation but the 76ers also haven't forgotten that the Nets beat them by 20 points, back in mid-December. The last time that these teams met here, the 76ers were favored by -9.5 points and won by 22. The Nets' previous visit here also resulted in a 22-point Philly win. While both those were playoff games, I expect another double-digit win for the 76ers here. Not only do they have the venue in their favor but they've got the schedule working for them. Whie the 76ers had yesterday off, the Nets are playing their second game in two days and their third in the past four. Payback time. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Mavs hammered the Warriors a couple of times back in November and December. I expect a much better effort from the defending Western Conf. champs tonight though. Porzingis practiced yesterday. However, in addition to his knee, he isn't feeling well with an illness. With the Mavs also playing tomorrow night, my hunch is that he won't go tonight. Either way, I expect the Warriors to be ready. The Warriors are 14-7 ATS when attempting to avenge a game where the opponent scored 100 or more. They're 8-3 ATS when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. They're also 5-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge. While the Mavs play again tomorrow, the Warriors have tomorrow off. Expect them to leave it all on the floor, en route to AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers beat the Hornets by double-digits in both last season's meetings. The game here at Portland resulted in a 127-96 blowout, the Blazers taking a 70-49 lead into the break. Schedule in their favor, I expect another blowout tonight. While the Blazers are rested, the Hornets are playing their second game in the past two days and third in the past four. The Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Off three straight losses and playing with "double-revenge," I expect the Hawks to be a highly motivated team today. Note that they lost by 10 last time but that all five of their previous games (2 W, 3 L) were decided by single-digits. Also, note that they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off an upset loss, by double-digits, in a game where they were favored. The Nets are only 7-12 ATS as favroites overall, 4-8 ATS as home favorites. They're also only 2-8 ATS after scoring 115 or more in their previous game. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Bucks won big last night but I expect them to face a much tougher task here. Though I certainly won't count on it, with this being the second of b2b games, its possible that Giannis won't play, as he's been dealing with a back issue. Either way, I expect the rested Blazers to be ready for a big game. While the role hasn't been kind to them of late, the Blazers are still a healthy 9-5-2 ATS the past 16 times that they were listed as home underdogs. That includes a 118-103 victory over the Bucks here last season. During that span, the Blazers are also a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) when off a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Grab the points but don't be surprised when Portland steps up and wins this one outright. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While Boston had last night off, New Orleans beat the Knicks, at MSG. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pelicans will be playing their third game in the past four days. In fact, this marks their sixth game in the past nine days. That schedule will catch up to them against a very hungry Boston team tonight. The Celtics are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS when off a division loss. Over the past couple of seasons, they're a profitable 14-5 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. They beat the Pelicans by double-digits in both last season's meetings and I fully expect for them to do so again this evening. Boston rolls. 

I'm playing on NY. I like how this one sets up for the Knicks. Off a winless road trip, they're going to be hungry. They had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Thats not the case for the Pelicans, as they have a big game at Boston tomorrow. Off some recent wins, they may not be as hungry as their hosts, either. The home team won both games last season. Tonight, the Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday. I'll take the points but I like NY to score the upset. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. This will be the fourth meeting between these teams already this season. On 10/23, I was on the Suns (Oct. GOM) when they hammered the Kings here. I successfully backed Sacramento in the next meeting, a 4-point win on 11/19. I didn't play the most recent game but it was also very close, a 2-point Phoenix win on 12/28. So, thats back-to-back meetings which have been decided by four or less. With the Kings looking to avenge that loss, I expect another close one tonight. Yes, the Kings played last night. Thats worked in our favor though, as we're getting a little extra line value because of it. Last night's game wasn't exactly taxing though as the Kings won big. (By the end of the third, they were up by 26.) The last time that the Kings played the second of b2b games, they covered at Denver, losing by five. The time before that? A 4-point loss. Before that? An outright win at Houston by a point! So, one can see that they haven't exactly been bothered by playing two games in two days. Expect them to give their hosts all they can handle here, improving to 6-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a same season loss.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they've been on a nice roll, tonight, the Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After dropping all four games on their road trip, the 76ers return home in a very angry mood. The fact that the Thunder beat them at OKC earlier (and upset the 76ers here last year) will only intensify that anger. While they've had their issues on the road, the 76ers are a dominant 16-2 here at home. Opposing teams score a mere 101.5 ppg here. Meanwhile, the Thunder score only 103.8 ppg on the road. While OKC hits 44.4% of its fg's on the road, the 76ers hit 47.6% of theirs, here at home. Expect the "hungrier" team to win this one by double-digits. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are desperate for a win and the Grizzlies represent the perfect opponent. The Grizzlies used to be known for their defense but thats no longer they case. They're allowing 116.2 ppg this season. The Kings are considerably more stingy. They allow 108.3 ppg. Here at home, that number dips to just 106. While they lost earlier at Memphis, the Kings beat the Grizzlies both times, here at Sacramento, last season. Yes, the Grizzlies won their last game. However, that was at home, against Charlotte. Note that they're 2-4 ATS off a home win. The Kings are 4-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier (same season) loss. Losers of eight straight, over the years, they've gone 10-4-1 ATS after losing their previous eight. Expect them to play with desperation, bouncing back with a badly needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets have been tough at home recently. Playing with double-revenge, I expect their best effort on New Year's Eve. Since the Celtics' last visit, on 11/9, the Hornets have played 13 home games. While the Hornets only won five of those 13 games, they were very competitive in nearly every one of them. In fact, only one of those 13 home games resulted in a loss of greater than seven points. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS after having failed to cover in two or more consec. games and 1-0 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Suns are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses and with their next five on the road, the Blazers know they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Suns eked out a road win last time out. However, they're still 6-8 away from Phoenix and they're also 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a road win of three or fewer points. The Blazers have beaten the Suns 11 straight times. They've beaten the Suns six straight times here at Portland, the past five of those all coming by a minimum of seven points. A closer look at those past five meetings here at Portland finds that the Blazers were laying double-digits for all five games. We're being asked to lay a much lower line here and I feel thats providing excellent value. Expect the Blazers to continue their dominance in the series, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have already played the Bucks tough in both meetings. Milwaukee won each game by single digits. Playing at home and with double-revenge, I expect the Hawks to give the Bucks all they can handle once again. I'm well aware that the Bucks, who lost on Christmas Day, have fared well when coming off a loss. Thats not always the case though and a Christmas Day game is unique. Did you know that Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS the past five times that it was off a game where it was trailing by 20 or more at halftime? This is also arguably the "lowest profile" game/team that the Bucks will have played in a bit. With a game tomorrow, I feel they make lack their usual intensity here. While the Hawks also play tomorrow, they didn't play on Christmas and come in well-rested. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest and they're 7-2 ATS their last nine in that situation. Expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons 7-10 record at home isn't very good. However, its considerably better than Washington's 5-13 mark on the road. Here, the Pistons play with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses. They certainly haven't forgotten that the Wizards hammered them here 10 days ago. Its important to note that the Wizards got 40 points in that game (23 and 17) from Thomas and Bertans and that neither of those players will be available for this one. The Pistons, meanwhile, played without Griffin and Drummond. Its going to be an entirely different game today. The Pistons are going to be desperate. They know they need to snap their skid today, as their next six games come on the road. Expect them to do exactly that, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Nuggets are one of the top teams in the West and this is their chance to show that to the world. I won with them when they hammered the Lakers the other day and then successfully played against them when they won but failed to cover, at Phoenix. They're back home now though and rested. Instead of facing a revenge-minded team (Suns) its the Nuggets who play with revenge, as the Pelicans beat them earlier. Note that that Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge a road loss where they were the favorite. The Pelicans may have won at Portland. However, they're at the end of a trip and they're still just 5-9-2 ATS on the road. They're also 0-4 SU/ATS when off an upset win as a road underdog. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. While I won with the Nuggets last night, this one favors the Suns. While the Nuggets are playing their third game in four days, the Suns are rested. Even though they've cooled off, they're still within striking distance of the playoffs, something which hasn't been the case at Christmas time in recent years. Playing with double-revenge, they're badly going to want this one. The Nuggets, 2-4 ATS off a road win and 0-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, could easily be thinking about their Christmas Day game and/or last night's win at LA. Both this season's meetings were at Denver and the Suns lost one of those by only a point. The last time they hosted the Nuggets (last season) they won outright as nine-point dogs. Playing at home, schedule in their favor, expect them to give the Nuggets all they can handle once again with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I believe that the Nuggets are visiting at the right time. LA is off four consecutive ATS losses, losing the last two of those outright. This is the Lakers' first game back from an Eastern trip and they could easily be already thinking about their Christmas Day showdown vs. Kawhi and co. As for the Nuggets, since going through a bit of a tough stretch, they're a perfect 5-0 their last five games. That tough stretch included a home loss vs. these same Lakers, a game Denver was favored in. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to continue their strong recent play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 22-12-1 ATS the past 35 times that they attempted to avenge a SU loss from a game in which they were favored. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs have played the Clippers tough in both this season's meetings. The game at LA resulted in a 6-point win for the Clippers, back on Halloween. A month later, for a game here at San Antonio on 11/29, the Spurs won outright, as 5-point underdogs, a 107-97 "upset" win. While I like their chances of another upset here, I'm also happy to grab the generous points. The Spurs just gave the Rockets all they could handle, losing by only two at Houston. Next, in their most recent game, they hammered the Nets by 13. The Spurs had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. This is their final home game before Christmas and they're going to want to make the most of it. On the other hand, the Clippers lost last time out. They also lost their last road game, getting upset by the Bulls, at Chicago. Unlike the Spurs, the Clippers play tomorrow. Additionally, they've got the big Christmas Day showdown coming up against Lebron and the Lakers. While the Spurs are 13-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs of six or less, the Clippers are 5-12 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. I won with the Blazers last time out. Here's an excerpt of what I said at the time: "....They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building..." Golden State actually played well but the Blazers still grinded out the double-digit win. Now, they're laying a much smaller number against another team they can handle. Once again, I believe that they'll take of business in this very "winnable" game. Anthony has settled into his role as the third option and this is a team ready to go on (at least) a mini run. The Magic have been competitive but have still dropped five of their last six. At the end of a trip, they're already looking forward to getting home in time for last minute Christmas shopping. Consider that the Blazers were laying -10 points when they hosted Orlando last season. Not enough has changed to warrant such a big line swing. The Blazers are 16-5 SU and 14-6-1 ATS against Southeast teams the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Mavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, including their first at home (now 14-1) the 76ers are going to be angry. The last time that they had lost b2b games, they snapped the skid right there with a 19-point win. The Mavs managed the upset at Milwaukee without Doncic. However, they lost against Boston last time out and his absence will be noticed again here. Talk about a tough stretch: the Bucks, the Celtics, the 76ers and up next the Mavs will face the defending world champs. Facing a highly motivated Philly team, it all catches up to the Mavs here. 76ers are 26-18-1 ATS (36-9 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range the past 2+ seasons and they improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Huge game, obviously. While both teams have been great, I believe that the Bucks are the more complete team. Playing at home, I expect them to have the advantage. Note that the Bucks won both last season's meetings by double-digits. While the Lakers have outscored teams by a solid 112.9 to 106.1 mark on the road, the Bucks have outscored teams by a dominating 122.3 to 107.9 margin here at home. While both teams hit roughly the same percentage of field goals, the Bucks are much stingier defensively. Opposing teams hit 41.5% of their fg's against Milwaukee compared to 43.6% (44.7% on road) for LA. Expect that superior defense, along with homecourt, to prove the difference, the Bucks improving to 30-11-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an upset loss. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have played the Jazz tough the past couple of seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle again this evening. Two years ago, the Hawks won 104-90 here as home underdogs. Then, getting 13.5 points, they won at Utah. Last season, the Jazz won at Utah. However, the Hawks again gave them all they could handle, here at Atlanta. Getting 7.5 points, the Hawks again won outright, a 117-114 win. The Jazz are off b2b fairly close games, winning by seven and eight points, despite hosting the Warriors and Magic. The Hawks played the Lakers tough last time on this floor, losing by five. Including that result, they're 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. At 5-23, the Warriors' season is a write-off. There's no saving it. Thats not true for the Blazers though. They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building. The Blazers haven't forgotten losing at Golden State earlier or all those losses the Warriors have handed them in recent season. Tonight, they get some payback in serious blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams met less than two weeks ago, at San Antonio. You may recall that one as it was a double-OT thriller. The Spurs won 135-133. The Rockets certainly haven't forgotten. So, they'll have payback on their minds. Also, they got upset here by Detroit last time out. With four road games following this one, they know they need to take care of business tonight. Note that they're 31-11 SU the past 2+ seasons, off an upset loss, 15-4 SU off an upset loss at home. During that span, the Rockets were also 31-10 SU when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Expect the revenge-minded Rockets to improve on those stats Monday, pulling away for a double-digit win while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Thunder have fared quite well as underdogs this season. However, they havent visited Denver yet. They lost at Sacramento by a point last time out and now they're playing the final leg of a road trip and final road game before Christmas. I believe that they're going to have trouble. The Nuggets returned home from a trip and promptly pounded Portland. They're 79-23 (SU) here the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're also 27-15 SU and 26-15-1 ATS against divisional opponents, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS this season. They dominated the Thunder last season and I expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Already potentially weary from playing the 5th leg of a 6-game road trip, the Clippers may also be ripe for an emotional letdown after defeating the defending champs, at Kawhi's old stomping grounds. Either way, they're going to be facing an extremely motivated T-Wolves team. The Wolves haven't won yet this month and they're desperate to change that. Since scoring only 91 to begin their trip, the Clippers have hit at least 110 in each of their last three games. That's proven that its not necessarily a good thing; they're 0-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 or more in each of their previous three games. Look for the Wolves to bring their best effort, improving to 19-11 ATS the past 30 times that they had failed to cover their previous six games.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I backed the Hornets in their last game and they rewarded me with an upset win at Brooklyn. I don't think they're going to be able to do it again tonight though. Charlotte may come in with the better record but the Bulls are starting to get going and I believe that they're the superior team. Two games ago, the Bulls lost a 1-point game against Toronto, their third straight defeat of five or less. To take the champs down to the wire was still a good effort though and they followed it up with a 136-point explosion (136-102 win) against Altanta last game. They're quietly a dominant 25-9-2 ATS in December, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they were off a double-digit home win. Expect another one tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off the home loss against OKC, which was preceded by a loss to the Lakers, the Blazers are going to be in an angry mood. They only previous time they lost a home game to a divisional opponent this season they bounced back with a double-digit win (and cover) in their next game. The Blazers were laying -11.5 when the Knicks played here last season and won by 10. We're working with a lower line tonight but I expect a bigger margin of victory. (The previous season, they were laying -9.5 but won by 24.) Portland knows that NY is 1-9 away from MSG and it knows it has road games at Denver and Phoenix on deck. In other words, the Blazers need to take care of business here. They will. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers continue to treat me well. Yesterday, I won with the 'over' in their game against the Cavs. In their previous game, I successfully played against them when they lost at Washington. The game before that? I successfully backed them when they beat Utah. You get the idea. Today, its a rematch against the hated Raptors, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year and which probably prevented them from being champions. The Ratpors won this season's first meeting (I won with the 'under' in that one) but that was at Toronto, while this one's at Philly. Thats a pretty significant difference, given that the 76ers are 5-7 on the road but 9-0 here at home. Needless to say, the 76ers are going to be extremely motivated. They're 32-10 SU as home favorites of six or fewer points the past 2+ seasons and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Yesterday's game was such a blowout and it was here at home, that its not really a factor. Yet, it has helped in keeping the line a bit lower than it could have otherwise been. I say the 76ers finally get a little payback. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the 76ers in their last game. However, that was at home and they were laying less points than they are now. That 9-point win against Utah notwithstanding, the 76ers have been playing a lot of very close games lately. Their previous four games were all decided by six or fewer points. So, thats five straight decided by single-digits. That makes covering this kind of number on the road tough. The Wizards are going to be desperate. They're 16-8-1 ATS their last 25 as home underdogs. In what should be another close one, grab the points and look for the Wizards to improve to 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a home game where the O/U line was 230 or greater. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I successfully played against the Jazz in their last game. However, that was on the road, at a venue where visiting teams were 0-9 and the Jazz were at a scheduling disadvantage. They were also facing a 76ers team which was determined to avenge an earlier close loss. The shoe is completely on the other foot here though. This time, the Jazz are at home. This time, the Jazz are rested and facing a Laker team which played last night in the altitude of Denver. This time, the Jazz are the ones playing with revenge from an earlier loss. While their starts weren't very good, I liked the effort/heart the Jazz showed in each of their last two losses. They fell behind big in both cases but didn't quit either time. They're 11-4 ATS (12-3 ATS) their last 15, off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday night. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz eked out a win when these teams met at Salt Lake City earlier. With this evening's rematch being played at Philadelphia and aided by a scheduling advantage, the 76ers should get some payback this evening. While the 76ers had Sunday off, the Jazz got blown out by the defending champs, at Toronto. They were crushed right out of the gate and there was a worry that the starters might get pulled. That didn't happen though as Mitchell still played more than 30 minutes, Bogdanovich 29+, Gobert more than 28 etc. While the Jazz have had a few b2b situations this season, they've been fortunate that they got to play them at home against weaker teams, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Sacramento etc. Now, however, they're on the road against one of the best in the East, a rested and revenge-minded Philly team. With a 9-0 record on this floor, the 76ers outscore visiting teams by an average of 109.9 to 99.1. The Jazz struggle to score on the road at the best of times and figure to have trouble doing so tonight. While the 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS their last four, they're also 14-6 ATS (16-4 SU) the past 20 times that they'd failed to cover in three or more straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is a very difficult spot for the Hawks. Yesterday, they left it all on the floor in a 1-point OT loss at Indiana. That type of loss takes a toll but mentally and physically. They've won just seven of 31, when playing the second of b2b games, the past 2+ seasons. That includes an 0-4 mark this season, a 1-3 record at the betting window. In two road games, after having played the previous day, the Hawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by 15 and 21. This is arguably a more difficult venue than either of those ones were and the Hawks are off a tougher loss and in a tougher scheduling spot. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this represents their sixth game in the past nine days. Expect it to catch up to them here as the rested Rockets, 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Heat have been on a nice roll. However, playing their second straight on the road, on consecutive nights, I expect their streak to come to an end this evening. The Heat are already 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. They lost by 15 and by seven. The 76ers are 30-10 SU and 23-17 ATS when listed as home favorites of -6 or less. They won two of the three meetings last season, including the lone game here. Expect a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I won with both these teams in their last game. Tonight, playing at home, I expect it to be the Nets which keep it going. The Kings have been on an impressive ATS win streak. They're still only 2-4 on the road though. As I mentioned last time when the Nets won big, they really wanted a minimum of two of these three home games. After dropping the first, they can still salvage the 2-1 mark on the homestand. I expect them to be extremely motivated. The Nets took both last season's meetings, scoring 123 points in each game, including a 123-94 blowout here in Brooklyn. Nets roll. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. I successfully played against the Suns last time out. However, that was on the road against a revenge-minded Sacramento team. Now, they're back home to take on a banged-up Pelican team which is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away from New Orleans. With a pair of road games on deck and knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans in two weeks, at New Orleans, the Suns know they need to take care of business tonight. Otherwise, their hot start will soon be a distant memory. The Suns beat the Pelicans by seven the last meeting here. They're 5-2 ATS as favorites and I expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Off a tough road trip, the Nets came into their current 3-game homestand, games against the Pacers, Hornets and Kings, thinking that they really needed to go at least 2-1 and hopefully 3-0. However, they already got hammered by the Pacers in the first game. I believe thats going to lead to an extremely motivated effort tonight. While these teams split four meetings overall last season, the Nets have had plenty of success against Southeast teams overall; they're 23-13 SU/ATS against that division the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 14-8-1 ATS when off a loss by 15 or more. Catching Charlotte, which is 7-18-4 ATS off a loss of 15 or more, off a 36-point loss against the champs, expect the Nets to bounce back with their best effort, en route to a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. These teams met on opening night at Phoenix. I released a big play on the Suns and they came through for me with a decisive victory. They continued to roll for a long time after that, too. They've started to cool off now though and they're off a blowout loss against Boston last night. The Kings, on the other hand, have gone the other way. Off their opening loss at Phoenix, they really struggled for some time, going 0-5 SU/ATS their first five. They've covered every single game since then though, a 7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) run. Schedule and venue in their favor and playing with revenge from the opener, I expect the Kings to keep on rolling for at least one more night, improving to a perfect 8-0 ATS in November. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams recently met at Milwaukee. The Bucks won by nine. Playing at home, I expect the Bulls to be even more competitive. With a very high O/U line, note that Chicago is 6-2 ATS the past eight times it had an O/U line of 230 or greater. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS on the season, after allowing 115 or more points. They're also 3-0 ATS when off a loss by six or less. The Bucks have seen four of five decided by single digits. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic are playing well right now. They beat the Spurs last time out and hammered the 76ers in their previous game. Thats three wins in their past four and they've hit triple-digits in scoring in five straight. While the Wizards have fared well as underdogs, I like how the Magic match up against them. Playing at home, I believe they'll have the advantage. With an O/U line in the low/mid 220s, note that the Magic are 9-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that span, they're also 17-6-2 after scoring 110 or more points in b2b games. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played yesterday. The Pacers don't typically mind playing the second of b2b games though. They're 17-12 ATS (16-13 SU) when doing so the past 2+ seasons. The only time that they did so this season, they won by 15 points. Plus, prior to last night, they had two nights off. So, they're not playing a 3-in-4 situation. In other words, I'm not too worried about the b2b spot and am happy with the extra line value its provided. As for last night, though they didn't cover, I liked the effort I saw from the Pacers. They were diving for balls right up until the closing seconds. Since dropping their home opener, the Pacers have played great here, winning five straight. While the Bucks are indeed a tough team, they're only 2-4 ATS as road favorites. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Blazers got 60 from Lillard last time out but still lost. They're going to be in an angry mood here and they'll provide Lillard with a lot more support. The Hawks have lost b2b games and four of their last five. All the losses came by a minimum of nine points. The Blazers have beaten the Hawks each of the last three meetings. They won those games by 20, 9 and 21 points. The Blazers know they need to take advantage of this very winnable game. Their next game is on the road, then they host the defending champs, then they go on a lengthy road trip. In other words, winning here is critical. Expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs got back on track, snapping a 2-game slide with a solid 121-112 win over OKC, last time out. I feel that they're catching the Celtics at the right time and I look for the Spurs to carry the momentum of their victory over the Thunder into today's game. The Spurs handled the Celtics last season winning 115-96 and 120-111. They're 72-20 here the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, Boston is 55-43 on the road. The Celtics are off an emotional win against Kemba Walker's old team and are now playing the final game of a road trip. They're just 6-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off b2b road wins. I'm going with the Spurs. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Heat have gotten off to a great start but I expect them to stumble at this difficult venue. Note that the Heat are an ugly 5-13-2 ATS the past 20 times that they were coming off a double-digit home win, just 1-6-2 ATS if that win came by 20 or more. Also, note that Miami's hot start has helped to keep this line a lot more reasonable than it could have otherwise been. Including a 103-87 blowout of the Heat here last season, a game where they were laying -9.5 points, the Nuggets are 66-17 SU as a home favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Rockets have been terrible at the betting window so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. While the Grizzlies had Sunday off, the Rockets are off a game at Miami. They gave up 46 points in the first quarter alone in that one. The Rockets are the end of a road trip. All three games here at Memphis have been decided by single digits. Speaking of close games, the Rockets' last visit here resulted in a 1-point game. In what figures to be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Great start for the Suns, obviously. However, I don't believe this young team is quite ready to be laying points on the road. Even with the recent win in SF, the Suns are still just 19-65 on the road the past 2+ seasons. Its hard to win away from home. Note that the Suns are 1-6 the last seven times that they were off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Grizzlies beat Brooklyn their last game on this floor and they're coming in confident that this is a matchup they can win. The last meeting here resulted in a 117-96 win for the Grizzlies. Expect them to score the 'upset' here. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The home team has won six straight in this series. The last three games played here in San Antonio saw the Spurs win by scores of 108-103, 131-118 and 116-105. For this one, not only do they have the venue in their favor but the Spurs also have the schedule in their favor. While they had Sunday off, the Blazers played at Dallas. Knowing they hit the road after this, look for the Spurs to take care of business on their home floor here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves are off a hot (2-0) start and this game sets up very nicely for them. While Minnesota had yesterday off, Miami is off an OT win at Milwaukee. I say that OT game catches up with them here, against a Minnesota team playing its home opener. Note that the Heat are just 15-25-3 ATS over the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive ATS wins. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Wolves to improve to 9-5 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a double-digit road win. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the champs in their opening game. However, I expect them to face a tougher test here. Off a road loss at Philly, the Celtics are going to be extremely hungry to win their home opener. History says they'll have a great shot at this series has been dominated by the home team in recent years. The Raptors have won eight straight meetings, at Toronto. Meanwhile, the Celtics have beaten the Raptors five straight times, here at Boston. Those wins came by an average of 6.5 points. Wednesday's loss notwithstanding, the Celtics have been strong in divisional games overall. Look for them to improve to 9-3 SU the last 12 times that they were off a divisional loss, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. What is the world coming to? The Clippers are favored, on the road, against the Warriors. That is indeed the state of the union, in case you haven't been paying attention. Kawhi's debut was everything the Clipper fans were hoping for. Clearly, he's a special player and this is a talented team. That said, they're not going to win every game. Curry, Green and co. are playing on their home floor and they've got payback (against Kawhi) on their minds. They're going to be highly determined to start the season with a win and get rid of the bad taste in their mouths from last year's finals. True, Durant has moved on. Remember, they won a title without him. True, Klay is out. Paul George is out for LA though, too. The addition of D'Angelo Russel (29 points in 28 mins in final preseason game) is not insignificant. Playing on their homecourt, I say the defending Western Conf. champs get it done.