Sports Picks & Predictions

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. I think Los Angeles is a team that will benefit from the All-Star break and come out strong at home against a Spurs team that sits just a half-game behind the Clippers in the playoff standings.

Some may not think a 35-19 team needs a break, but the Clips have had an up and down season where many feel they haven't come close to reaching their full potential yet.

I think we'll see a rejuvenated squad that had a chance to focus on defensive woes this week in practice and had a chance to escape the spotlight that has burned brightly from the critics to this point. I believe we'll see them topple a Spurs team that has to trek to the road again after the break in the midst of their annual rodeo road trip.

The Clippers were just starting to adjust to life without Blake Griffin before the break, who won't return until at least March after elbow surgery from a staph infection. L.A. lost its first three games without Griffin but won and covered the next two just before the break, thanks to some better defensive play and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers held two straight foes to under 100 points for a change and Jordan piled up 46 points and 47 rebounds in the two games. He now has three 20-20 performances in the last six contests.

I think Jordan provides some problems for the Spurs, who will obviously have to key on him. If he can't score down low, there should be some openings on the perimeter, which has been a sore spot for San Antonio lately.

The Spurs are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1 percent from 3-point land over their past five games and I think that could be a big mismatch opportunity for the Clippers. It's also nice to know the Spurs are 0-4 ATS their last four against teams with a .600 or better record at home.

I am playing on CHICAGO. I think the Bulls catch the Cavs in a prime letdown spot here that is way too good to pass up making a play on.

The Cavs host LeBron's old team, Miami, Wednesday night and I fully expect all of Cleveland's energy and focus to be poured into that game as far as their week's schedule goes. The Heat beat the Cavs in their first meeting of the season and that sent Cleveland into a 2-10 train wreck of a losing skid and you know James has been salivating to face them again - especially considering the Cavs are red hot right now after winning 13 of their last 14 heading into Wednesday's game.

I think Cleveland's mind will still be on the night before by the time they roll into Chicago on Thursday and if it's not on that, it will be on the All-Star break ahead. Kyrie Irving and LeBron are set to jettison off to New York for the game while the rest of the team has visions of some down time.

I believe that adds up to a perfect spot for the Bulls, who will be at home and are likely looking for a little payback against the Cavs. They lost and failed to cover in both meetings with Cleveland this year and I expect them to give a big effort here in what is the only NBA game on the slate for the evening.

Chicago has a tendency to play to the level of its competition this season too, and I like the fact the Bulls are 5-1 against the spread against the last six winning teams they've faced. 10* Main Event

I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I think we are watching the Thunder start to come into their own finally this season and they catch Memphis at a good time on Wednesday at home.

The Thunder have won four of their last five games and have covered three of their last four outings, including two straight wins in which they piled up a combined 255 points while covering those spreads by 20 points put together.

They'll play a Memphis squad whom they'd like to get a little revenge against after going 0-2 against the Grizzlies this season and Memphis could be in a bit of a letdown spot after handling the NBA's best team, Atlanta, last game.

I think the Grizzlies are in for a bit of a rude awakening against a sizzling hot Kevin Durant, who hasn't been held to fewer than 27 points in his last three games and he scored 40 last game against Denver. Durant also showed some signs of nastiness and looked like a guy who wants to lead his team into the playoffs. He got a technical foul for knocking Kenneth Faried to the floor and has been more verbal in games and on the bench.

Russell Westbrook is even hotter than Durant right now and when those two guys are on fire, it's hard not to love a play on OKC. Westbrook has been a triple double threat in each of his past six games and has scored at least 40 points in three of his last seven.

Those are scary numbers if you're Memphis and it gets even better. OKC is 8-4 against the spread at home against winning teams, which is by far the team's best ATS spot this season. The Thunder are also 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PHOENIX. The NBA is abuzz with Suns talk that Phoenix would rather not hear about after Sunday's game -- the Suns have lost on an astounding four buzzer beaters this season, the most in the league since the Jazz in 2006-07.

I think that will serve as extra motivation for the Suns Tuesday night considering Houston was one of the four teams that beat them on a last-second shot when they met in January. That was the fourth straight win and cover for the Rockets over the Suns and I think we'll see a fired up Suns squad Tuesday at home.

Phoenix should be helped by the return of team leading scorer Eric Bledsoe, who missed Sunday's buzzer-beating loss against Sacramento so he could be with his wife for the birth of their first child. I don't have any hard stats on this one, but it's not uncommon for a new dad to play like a man on fire in his next game after the birth of his kid and I think Bledsoe will be jacked up for Tuesday's tilt.

The Suns haven't been scoring like their usual selves lately but they still rank fifth in the NBA with 105.7 points per game and six players are averaging in double figures. I think they'll do what it takes to slow Houston's James Harden just enough and their edge in depth and energy level will help them pull out the win from there. 10* Main Event

I am playing on INDIANA. The Spurs don't have the best timing when it comes to playing the Pacers here. Even if they'd met them a week ago, they'd be facing a much less confident team than they will face Monday night.

Indiana enters this contest on its first three-game winning streak of the season after squeaking out a 103-102 victory Sunday at Charlotte. The Pacers were set as 2-point favorites in that matchup, meaning they were just two points away from also covering for their third straight game.

The Spurs typically don't mind playing in back-to-back games despite their, ahem, 'experience' but I think they will come into this one a little tired after facing the Raptors Sunday night. Toronto changed the pace of that contest throughout and impressively out-defended San Antonio when it needed to. The Spurs shot just 33.3 percent on field goals and just 25 percent on three-pointers.

I think the Spurs will come into this one slightly off-balance and still searching for their road legs in what will be the second of a nine-game road trip that will end on the last day of the month.

The Pacers don't mind playing defensive ball with anyone and I think home court and an off-balance Spurs team that is slightly worse at rebounding will all be factors in this one. I'll take the points and the Pacers. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on MEMPHIS. If anyone is going to slow the Atlanta Hawks, it's going to be the best defensive team in the league which is why I like the Grizzlies here on Sunday.

Memphis isn't just the best defensive team in the league with only 95.9 points against per game, the Grizz have been off the charts at protecting the hoop lately. They're stifling teams to just 84.8 points per game over their last five outings and holding teams to just 25.5 percent on three-pointers in that span.

It's that latter stat that I really like for this game because even though Atlanta plays a fantastic all-around game, the Hawks need their 3-ball to be working to beat the best in the NBA.

The Hawks are the best 3-point shooting team in the league and about one third of their points come from treys. That's a huge discrepancy compared to most teams, especially the Grizzlies, who rely on threes for only about 19 percent of their points this season.

I foresee this contest being a battle of which team can impose its will and force the other to play to its style. And with the Grizzlies being at home and playing the most suffocating defense we've seen from any team so far this season, I like Memphis to win that battle.

And if you're worried about Memphis losing to Minnesota last game, the West's worst team, you can throw that one into the waste basket as far as I’m concerned. I think the Grizzlies simply got caught looking ahead to Sunday's matchup with the NBA's best. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls are mired in a three-game losing streak but I believe one of their biggest problems is one of the easiest to fix: intensity level.

When one of your biggest problems at the pro level is you're not trying hard enough consistently enough, it's not that hard to turn it around.

"Where do you get your intensity from?" head coach Tom Thibodeau said this week."You get it from your concentration and maximum effort. And how do you build that habit? You build it through repetition like you do through everything else. Practice is important. Practicing together is important. All those things are. Your meetings are important. Shootarounds are important. It's all important."

The Bulls come into Saturday's game with two full days off between games, which means they've had plenty of time to work on everything they need to in practice to get some good habits going. It also means Mike Dunleavy has had some added time to get healthy and there's a chance he may play Saturday.

With or without Dunleavy, I still like the Bulls here, but with him the Bulls get a much needed bolstering in their perimeter game too and Thibodeau gets some added minutes into his lineup.

I think we'll see a different Chicago squad Saturday night that is hungry to finish its current 6-game road streak on a high note after starting it 1-3. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

The Pacers play hosts to the surging Cleveland Cavaliers, who will take the court for the second game of back-to-back outings, coming off a high-profile matchup versus the Los Angeles Clippers Thursday. Indiana will try to take advantage of this tough situational/schedule spot. Cleveland has struggled in Indianapolis, covering just once in its last five trips to Bankers Life Fieldhouse, and the home team is a solid 5-0 ATS in the last five meeting between these clubs.

The Pacers are aiming for some consistency after alternating wins and losses in their last five games. Indiana is coming off a 114-109 victory at home to the Detroit Pistons Wednesday – a season high in scoring for Indiana. The Pacers have put in some solid offensive efforts in recent outings and will need to pick up the scoring pace to keep up with the Cavs. They’re averaging 103.7 points on 51.3 percent shooting in their last three contests – an NBA best in that span.

Cleveland’s winning ways have puffed up its spreads due to the market reacting. However, the Cavs are a costly 9-14 ATS away from home and have played just two of their last 10 on the road. Cleveland is shooting only 43.7 percent as visitors and allowing opponents to put up 101 points per road game. Indiana has a hard-nosed defense, especially at home where teams have gone just 43.6 percent from the field for an average of 96.3 points per game.

The Cavaliers playing the second of back-to-backs on the road and the Pacers’ offensive uptick are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

The Magic are rare favorites at home hosting the lowly Los Angeles Lakers Friday. We’re getting great value with Orlando here, as Los Angeles is on a cross-country road trip and dropped the first two stops of this four-game trek.

The Lakers’ annual “Grammy Trip” – with the music award show taking over the Staples Center this week – wraps in Cleveland Sunday, opening up Los Angeles for a major lookahead spot to that weekend showdown with LeBron James & Co. The Lakers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games heading into Friday’s contests in Orlando.

The Magic are taking the court for the first times since head coach Jacque Vaughn was fired, looking to snap a 10-game losing skid. Orlando has seen improvement in those final two games, covering at San Antonio and Oklahoma City this week. It lost 110-103 to the Spurs to Wednesday, shooting 50 percent from the floor including a 10-for-21 night from beyond the arc.

The Magic get a break on defense against a Lakers team lacking a proven scoring punch. Los Angeles has mustered an average of only 88 points per game in regulation in its last seven games and shoots just 42.8 percent from the field on the road. The Lakers also give up 107.4 points per road game – second most in the NBA.

The Magic's shakeup on the sidelines and the Lakers' tough road spot are why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

The Blazers are happy to be home after a 0-3 road trip last week. Portland suffered a bit of a hangover from that rough road patch, just squeaking by Utah at home Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are looking to put together a strong run before the All-Star Break and can take the first step toward that with a win over the Phoenix Suns Thursday.

The Blazers got a big boost down low with the return of center Robin Lopez this week. Lopez was out with a hand injury and gives Portland some needed frontcourt depth, taking some of the defensive attention off LaMarcus Aldridge. Lopez is a tough defender and a presence on the boards. He scored 11 points and pulled down six boards with two blocks in his first game back.

Lopez looks to be a thorn in the side of his former team Thursday. The Suns aren’t a beefy team up front and have been abused by bigger opponents on the boards this season. Phoenix has a -2.3 rebounding margin and has allowed opponents to grab 12 offensive rebounds per game – third most in the NBA.

The Blazers eager to get back on track at home and their ability to dominate the Suns on the glass are why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

The Kings are in the midst of a tough patch of games, having just one win in their last 10 contests – a skid that started with a 108-105 overtime loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the same team Sacramento hosts Wednesday night.

While most team’s wouldn’t want to face the Mavs in the middle of such a slide, the Kings have always played Dallas tough and have covered the spread in five of their last six meetings, including that Jan. 13 home loss.

There's a revenge angle for Sacramento, which snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over Indiana then followed that with a loss to Golden State Tuesday. The Kings dominated the inside against the Mavericks last time out, winning the rebounding war 59-44 – 12 offensive rebounds – and scoring 54 points in the paint. Sacramento is one of the better teams at getting the ball deep into the paint, averaging 43.9 points in the paint per game this year.

Dallas will be playing the second of back-to-back games Wednesday, traveling overnight from the Bay Area immediately following a road game against the Golden State Warriors Tuesday. The Mavericks will be in no shape to body up with the Kings physical frontcourt after chasing the active Warriors up and down the court. Dallas is the fifth-oldest team in the NBA with an average age of 28.5 years old. It shows with a 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 games with no rest.

The Kings' consistent ATS success against the Mavericks and their ability to push around a fatigued Dallas squad are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Best Bet.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Timberwolves as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

The Timberwolves are on the rise, covering the spread in four of their last six games and now have star point guard Ricky Rubio back in the mix. Minnesota fans have to be excited about the combo of Rubio to stud rookie Andrew Wiggins, who has emerged as the next big NBA star. Wiggins has been slowing down a bit, having to shoulder the scoring load for the T-Wolves, but should see a boost with Rubio running the point.

Minnesota welcomes a Miami Heat team coming off a physical loss to the Detroit Pistons Tuesday night. The Heat were rolled 108-91 for their third loss in four games, covering the spread only once in that span. Miami has lacked a scoring punch since star guard Dwyane Wade went down with a hamstring injury, averaging only 82 points in those three games, and will be even slower with the ball having to play the second of back-to-back games on the road.

The Timberwolves are getting much tougher inside with Nikola Pekovic playing his way back into shape and reserve forward Gorgui Dieng making leaps in bounds in his recent efforts. Minnesota is also counting down the days until Shabazz Muhammad returns, but for now it will continue to improve inside and out in the second half of the season.

The T-Wolves' gradual improvement and the Heat running on empty for the second stop of back-to-backs are why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Pacers host the Detroit Piston inside Bankers Life Fieldhouse Wednesday, catching the Pistons playing the second of back-to-back games after a hard-fought matchup in Miami Tuesday. Detroit has snapped a four-game slide with two big wins against the Heat and Houston Rockets and are ripe for a letdown in this tough schedule spot.

The Pistons don’t have a very deep bench, usually going only three or four into their reserves. Detroit leans on its starters for big minutes and with guard Brandon Jennings out for the remainder of the season, the team is missing its motor on both ends of the floor. The Pistons only get 18.7 points per game from their bench – among the lowest averages in the NBA – and will have no choice but to look to these backups for production Wednesday night.

The Pacers, on the other hand, have enjoyed an extended break. Indiana hasn’t been in action since January 31, giving them time to rest up and prepare for this pivotal matchup with Detroit. Indiana has only two wins in its last 10 games but it comes into Wednesday having gone 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 games off three or more days rest.

The Pistons' short bench on short rest and the Pacers' extended break and prep time are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

The Kings have some revenge in store for the Golden State Warriors Tuesday. The last time these California rivals clashed, Sacramento was embarrassed by a 37-point third quarter eruption from Warriors guard Klay Thompson that eventually gave Golden State a 126-101 home win.

With that still fresh in the minds of oddsmakers, books are handing up a pile of points for the home team and there is great value on the Kings Tuesday night. Sacramento gets a boost from the home crowd after a drawn-out road trip that took them out East and included a postponed game due to snow in New York.

Golden State could get caught looking past the Kings and at their next two games with Dallas and at Atlanta, especially after what happened between these teams last time. The Warriors haven’t been sharp on the road in recent games, covering just twice in their last eight away from home, most recently a loss at Utah last week.

The Kings are going to look to push around the Warriors under the basket, sitting second in the NBA in rebounds with 54.9 total boards per night. That includes 11.1 rebounds on the offensive end and plenty of second looks at the hoop. Golden State has struggled to keep opponents off the glass, and allow an NBA-worst 12.7 offensive rebounds a night. The Warriors were especially weak on the boards in their last three, allowing an average of 15 offensive rebounds in that 1-2 span.

The Kings’ out for revenge and the Warriors' weakness on the glass is why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

The Suns get a crack at one of the Western Conference’s top dogs at home when they welcome the Memphis Grizzlies to US Airways Center Monday. Phoenix recorded two solid home wins in its previous appearances in front of the purple and orange faithful, knocking off Eastern Conference contenders Chicago and Washington.

Phoenix is a change in gears for the Grizzlies, who are more comfortable playing a plodding, methodical pace. The Suns average 99.3 points per 100 possessions – second fastest in the NBA – and produce 107.4 points on their home court – third highest in the league. Phoenix will look to suck the Grizzlies into a track meet, and get them out of their comfort zone on both ends of the floor.

The Suns have picked up their toughness around the hoop in recent games, averaging 56.0 total rebounds an outing over their last three contests. This is a sharp uptick in rebounding for Phoenix, which pulls down an average of just 50 rebounds a night on the season. This also includes a major improvement crashing the offensive glass, after the Suns corralled 15 offensive boards in the loss to Golden State.

Memphis is a team that thrives on pushing around opponents for those loose ball. The Grizzlies snatch up 51.5 rebounds an outing, while limiting foes to only 49.9 rebounds overall. The Grizzlies are on a six-game tear and could be ripe for a bit of a letdown after putting Oklahoma City in its place Saturday, with a big statement victory.

The Suns’ ability to dictate the pace and their improved work on the boards are why I’m playing on Phoenix as a 10* Best Bet Monday.

I’m playing on the New York Knicks as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

The Knicks welcome a Los Angeles Lakers team making the cross-country hike to the Big Apple for a very early start time Sunday afternoon. Due to the Super Bowl, the NBA schedules its Sunday contests for matinee matchups, meaning this 2 p.m. ET tipoff comes at 11 a.m. back in Los Angeles. 

The Lakers aren’t used to taking the court so early. And on top of that travel, time shirt and early start, L.A. is vulnerable to a massive letdown spot after stunning the Chicago Bulls in overtime in their most recent outing. It was a big game for the Lakers, with former star forward Pau Gasol returning to the Staples Center for the first time since leaving the team. And the bigger the game, the bigger the fall. We’re taking advantage of this very unique situational spot on Super Bowl Sunday.

That win snapped a nine-game losing skid for the Lakers, who have been toothless on offense during this stretch. Los Angeles has managed to score over 100 points in regulation just three times in its last 10 games and shoots just 43.1 percent on the road, mustering only 98.3 points per road game. Those scoring numbers are already declining with Kobe Bryant out for the year with a shoulder injury.

New York is licking its chops come the weekend. Rarely are the Knicks the favorites and even fewer are the amount of teams below them on the NBA pecking order. New York is playing some of its best basketball of the season, with four wins in its last six outings, including a solid home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Knicks have covered in five of their last six overall and the home team has covered the spread in each of the past six meetings between these big-market franchises.

The Lakers’ rough situational spot and the Knicks’ improved play is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Clippers take court in San Antonio on short rest, coming off a game against the New Orleans Pelicans Friday night. Los Angeles brings a six-game winning streak into the weekend, still fresh into an eight-game road trip that will take them into mid-February.

The Clippers can stake their place in the Western Conference pecking order against the Spurs, having revenge as their fuel in this matchup. Los Angeles lost 125-118 in their last trip to Texas back in December.

San Antonio has puffed up its record with a schedule rich with cupcake opponents. The Spurs have a three-game winning streak going into this matchup, having beaten Charlotte, Milwaukee and the L.A. Lakers in that span. San Antonio’s recent slate has featured other terrible teams like Denver, Utah and Minnesota. Oddsmakers are putting too much weight into those wins and giving great value to the Clippers Saturday.

Los Angeles has the energy in the frontcourt to match San Antonio, namely Kawahi Leonard. Leonard has been the spark plug for this aging San Antonio roster but he runs into a Clippers roster with DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and always-pesky Matt Barnes. With L.A. able to neutralize Leonard’s energy, the Clippers will look to attack San Antonio and get easy buckets inside off dribble penetration from Chris Paul, who had 25 points and nine assists in the last game against the Spurs.

The Clippers out for revenge in this important Western matchup and the Spurs’ soft sked is why I’m playing on Los Angeles as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

Utah is home to the Golden State Warriors, getting a handful of points from bookmakers Friday night. The Jazz catch the Warriors in a letdown spot following their hard-fought overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls Tuesday, a loss that snapped the franchise’s 19-game home winning streak.

Utah will try to bring this game to a screeching standstill and abuse a soft Golden State interior for second-chance points. The Jazz are a complete mismatch in pace for the Warriors, averaging a mere 92.8 points per 100 possessions – the second slowest pace in the entire NBA.

Utah will drag out possessions and limit the amount of damage Golden State’s sharp-shooting backcourt can do. The Jazz are a solid defensive club, giving up only 97.8 points per home game on the season. They’ve held their last four opponents to under 100 points, going 3-1 ATS in that span.

The Jazz will also take advantage of a Golden State frontcourt that has troubles cleaning the glass. The Warriors collect only 10.2 offensive rebounds per game while allowing opponents to hit the offensive boards for an average of 12.6 rebounds – most allowed in the league.

Utah may be coming off back-to-back losses to the Clippers and Celtics but it did win the rebounding battle in those contests and brings down 11.5 offensive boards a game – 16 in the loss to Los Angeles. The Jazz outworked the Warriors on the glass in their most recent meeting, 44-31 but fell 116-105 in Salt Lake City.

The Jazz’s methodical pace and ability to beat up the Warriors for second-chance buckets is why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

The Magic are back home in the Amway Center hosting the Milwaukee Bucks Thursday night. Orlando has faced a tough stretch of games, with three of its last four coming on the road – all of which resulted in losses. The Magic have actually dropped six straight but showed signs of life – or at least betting value – by covering the 12 points in a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last time out.

Orlando is setting up nicely at home, getting points against a Bucks team that is ripe for a letdown/lookahead spot thanks to some bigger-name teams on their recent calendar. Milwaukee is coming off game versus San Antonio and Miami, and have matchups with Portland and Toronto following Thursday’s stopover in Orlando.

The Magic have been bad defensively during this losing skid but showed some toughness in the loss to Memphis Monday. Orlando, which had allowed an average of 116 points the five games prior, held the Grizzlies to only 36 points in the second half, including 14 points in the fourth quarter. The last time the Magic faced Milwaukee, they limited the Bucks to 85 points – just 36 of those coming in the second half.

Orlando has dominated this series when it comes to the covering the spread. The Magic have covered in nine of their last 12 head-to-head clashes and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Bucks inside the Amway Center.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Wizards will be playing their third West Coast game in five nights when they visit Phoenix Wednesday and the Suns aren't the kind of team you want to be facing on weary legs.  Phoenix is the third highest scoring team in the NBA and is scoring even more lately with 110.8 points per game over the team's last five compared to a season average of 107.4.  The Wiz have been lighting it up a little lately too with at least 103 points in each of their last three games, but they are a little banged up heading into this one. Forward Paul Pierce is questionable with a toe injury and NBA assist leader John Wall is questionable with an Achilles injury. Don't count on either one missing out, but even if they do play I wonder how long they can keep pace with a Phoenix team that loves to run the floor.  Phoenix has lost two in a row, but I like the Suns to bounce back here with a more focused effort on Wednesday. They have run into technical foul trouble lately and coach Jeff Hornacek is cracking down on his team.   "Something is going to have to be done; we don’t play them, we continue to sit them like this or we get new guys in here that want to win a championship," Hornacek said after a loss to Clippers on Sunday.  I like Phoenix to come back strong here against what is quickly becoming a road weary Wizards team. 10* Personal Favorite

 I am playing on UTAH. The Jazz have made some recent moves that are giving the team a bit of a new look when it takes the court and I like that new look to cover the number at home Wednesday.  Coach Quin Snyder has begun starting Dante Exum at point guard and he now has Trey Burke coming off the bench to give him a better one-two punch. The Jazz won their first two games since Snyder made the move (though they lost to Boston last game) and the team appears to be improving all around.  Exum brings a faster pace to Utah and over the two wins he averaged 14 points with some hot shooting from 3-point range (8-of-15) to go along with 4.5 assists. Burke averaged 14.5 points in the two wins while playing 25 minutes and the shared playing time seems to be giving the Jazz a much needed lift.  I like Utah to cover here against a Clippers squad the Jazz have covered two of three games against this year despite losing all three straight up.  L.A. is playing its third game in four nights against fast paced teams, albeit the Jazz might be considered newly so. I think it's a lot to ask the Clippers to cover this number on the road on Wednesday and I'm taking the Jazz. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on MIAMI. The Heat are playing like a new team these days and the secret behind why might be out of the bag after this past weekend. His name is Hassan Whitehead. 
Whitehead saw more than 20 minutes in a game for the first time this season on Jan. 4 against Brooklyn and the Heat are probably wishing they could go back to November so they could insert him into the lineup more starting back then. The seven-footer had his first double double that night against the Nets and has had two more since - and a monstrous triple double on Sunday against the Bulls where he had 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocks. The Heat won 96-84 as 7.5-point underdogs and suddenly they're a team nobody is too excited to play right now. 
The biggest difference Whitehead might be making is on defensive. Suddenly the Heat have depth in the paint and it's showing in the numbers. They have gone from a team that allows 92.9 points per game this season to holding teams to just 85.2 points over their last five. The under has also come through in 11 straight Miami games - another testament to their defensive play. 
The Heat's sudden new size and depth under the basket leave Milwaukee in a mismatch situation Tuesday night. Center Larry Sanders remains suspended indefinitely and center John Henson is expected to play but injured his ankle last game and may be slowed by that.  With the recent play of Whitehead and the defensive toughness the Heat are showing right now, I believe they'll handle the Bucks easily on home court here. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are both taking the court for the second half of back-to-back outings Monday, with Denver covering the spread in a slight overtime loss to Washington and L.A. coasting to a comfortable victory in Phoenix Sunday.

However, this home game for the Clippers sets up as a tough situational spot. Monday is a lone home stand before an extended eight-game road trip puts the team on the highway for the next two weeks. Teams are often unfocused in these standalone home spots before a long away trek, dealing with off-court matters before such an extended period on the road.

Denver is not the team the Clippers want to look past Monday. The Nuggets thrive on hustle and play a physical style that works hard for every loose ball. Denver brings a six-game losing skid into this matchup, hungry to get its first win since Jan. 14. The Nuggets took a 109-106 victory over Los Angeles in December, limiting the Clippers’ fastbreak points and battling them for every rebound.

The Nuggets are always a handful on the boards, ranked third in rebounds per game (54.9) including 12.6 offensive rebounds a night. Denver has been especially lively on the offensive glass in recent games, averaging 14.3 offensive rebounds in the last three – grabbing 14 in the OT loss to the Wizards. Those extra looks at the basket quickly add up and make sizable spreads like this easy to cover.

Despite their athletic frontcourt, the Clippers don’t rebound exceptionally well outside of center DeAndre Jordan. Los Angeles gives up more than 10 offensive rebounds an outing and has watched opponents pull down an average of 51 boards a night.

The Clippers’ looking ahead to their upcoming road trip and the Nuggets' tenacity on the glass is why I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

I am playing on TORONTO. The Raptors have the luxury of facing what should be a fatigued Pistons team on Sunday, who enter this game fresh off playing at Milwaukee Saturday night. 
The Pistons already don't like playing Toronto much - the Raptors have covered in eight of the last 10 meetings - and it won't help the Pistons any to throw tired legs into the mix. 
The Raps have had some struggles lately, winning just four of their last 12 games but they've won two of their last three and I think we'll see the best Raptors team we've seen in a couple weeks show up against Detroit. They are showing signs of playing better as a team lately after six players picked up double digits in a win over the Sixers Friday night. 
Toronto did show some lulls against Philly though, and I think we'll see a much more energized team after head coach Dwane Casey addressed it with his squad.  
"We've got an air of complacency and I don't like it," Casey said after the Sixers game. "It's everybody collectively. We have to come out with a better effort. We can't come out and perform like that."
Kyle Lowry took over when the Raps needed him most and scored 17 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia. He's another reason, of course, I like Toronto with the Raps having the advantage of owning the best player on the court when they lace up on Sunday.
The Pistons are an improved team, no question, but they still struggle with shooting. They entered Saturday ranked third-worst in field-goal percentage and second worst in free-throw percentage in the NBA. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. This game is as much about playing on the Clippers as it is about playing against the Nets. 
Brooklyn has lost and failed to cover in eight of its last 10 games heading into three-game West Coast road trip that began Wednesday night in Sacramento. A big part of their most recent struggles has been the absence of point guard Deron Williams, without whom the Nets have gone 1-6 against the spread. 
Williams was out Wednesday night and could be back Thursday, but at best he may be facing some rust after sitting out eight games. They could desperately use 
The Clippers aren't the team you want to face when you're struggling. They are the eighth best field goal shooting team and the third best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and they get even hotter at home. They are 18-7 on home court compared to 10-7 on the road.
L.A. is also the fourth top scoring team in the NBA and I just don't see a low-scoring Brooklyn team being able to keep up enough to cover here. The Nets have reach 100 points just twice in their past 10 games. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on CHICAGO.The Bulls are in a bit of a slump but I believe their problems are somewhat straightforward to fix and oddsmakers are being too generous here. 
The Bulls simply aren't giving enough effort out there on a nightly basis and they've looked flat with the absence of Joakim Noah and Mike Dunleavy. I think we'll see a much better effort Thursday night with a nationally televised home game and the team's top player, Derrick Rose, sounding totally fed up. 
"Everybody has to be on the same page," Rose said this week. "Until then, we're going to continue to get our butt kicked. It's the whole team. We're not communicating when we're on the floor. Everybody's quiet. We've got to give a better effort. It seems like we're not even competing." 
Those are easy problems to fix and home court with some points in their back pocket should do the trick. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on INDIANA 10*. Atlanta has been on a quite a streak lately but I think this is a few too many points for them to cover.

The Pacers have lost five straight and are desperate for a strong effort.  Keep in mind that four of Indiana’s five losses during this streak have been by less than double digit points.

Indiana has been strong on the road the road as a betting team with 14 ATS wins compared to just nine ATS losses this season.  

Atlanta has gotten the best of Indiana the last two meetings this season so revenge will be on the mind of the Pacers.

The Hawks have a high profile home game coming up against a strong Oklahoma City Thunder side on Friday night that is sure to attract some media attention. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta gets caught looking ahead to that game a little bit here.

Atlanta has been on massive ATS streak here over the past little while and is indeed a strong team. However, as the streak continues the points spread continues to get higher for the team and this spread is one of the highest it has had to cover so far this season.

I expect the Pacers to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting. INDIANA 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Rockets catch the Golden State Warriors at the perfect time, hosting a road-weary Warriors side coming to the Toyota Center Saturday. Golden State lost a grueling 127-115 decision to the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday and take the court for its third game in four days against a Houston team that’s won five of its last six SU and ATS.

For a team that depends on its pace to overwhelm opponents, Saturday’s tough scheduling spot will be a big challenge for the Warriors. Golden State not only has to battle fatigue but also a very physical Houston defense that gives up 97.6 points per game and defends against the 3-ball better than most, limiting opponent to just 31 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Houston isn’t just getting it done with defense, either. The Rockets have poured on the points in recent outings, averaging 112.7 points per game in their last three – most in the NBA in that three-game span. They’re shooting 48.6 percent from the field, including a 40 percent touch from distance in those contests.

The Warriors were rolled on the boards in the loss to Oklahoma City, getting out-rebounded 54-43 and allowed the Thunder to scoop up 16 offensive boards. The Rockets are one of the top rebounding teams in the West, averaging 53.3 boards per game, and hit the offensive glass hard, with 12.3 per game. Golden State could be too tired to fight for those loose balls, giving up easy putbacks to a hungry Houston team.

The Warriors’ tough scheduling spot and the Rockets' two-way dominance is why I’m playing on Houston as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Bulls welcome the red-hot Atlanta Hawks to the United Center, hoping that chilly winter Chicago wind can cool off their opponents. The Hawks bring an 11-game SU and ATS win streak into Saturday, wrapping up a four-game road trip against the Bulls.

Chicago is a rare underdog at home for this contest and presents solid value here, with the market jumping on Atlanta’s recent success and puffing up the spread. The Bulls have dominated this series when it comes to covering the spread, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven with the Hawks and covering in each of their last four home stands against Atlanta.

The Bulls are out to make a statement in this game, and star point guard Derrick Rose appears to be finding his stroke at just the right time. After an extended cold skid from the field, Rose has gone off for 32 and 29 points in his last two games, knocking down a collective 11 of 17 from beyond the arc. Rose was 12 of 20 from the field with five 3-pointers in Chicago’s road win over the Boston Celtics Friday.

Atlanta came away with a big win in Toronto Friday and could be ripe for a letdown, having to travel overnight to Chicago for this Saturday showdown. The Hawks have dropped six straight games inside the United Center and face a Bulls side out to avenge a loss in Atlanta in December, back when Rose was struggling with his shot.

The Bulls' ATS success against the overvalued Hawks and Rose’s turnaround is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

am playing on UTAH. I love this spot for the Jazz Friday night at home against the Lakers. The two biggest reasons are a huge improvement on defense for the Jazz and a Lakers team playing in one of its worst situations. 

The Lakers like playing the second contest of back-to-back situations about as much as Kobe likes going 5-for-28 from field-goal and 3-point range like he did against the Heat the other night. The Lakers are 1-7 straight up on zero days of rest this season and could be facing a special kind of letdown coming off a nationally televised game against LeBron and the Cavs at home on Thursday. 
Utah is no opponent you can let your guard down against these days, either. The Jazz are coming into their own on defense, which they said began to come together during a pre-holiday-season East Coast road trip. Utah seems to be getting more comfortable all the time with coach Quin Snyder's defensive schemes since that trip and it's showing every game. 
The Jazz held two opponents to fewer than 80 points in the 10 games since that road trip ended and allowed only three opponents to top 100 points during that span. I think the Lakers are in for a tough one here. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Bulls have a chance to get even with their Eastern Conference rivals, the Washington Wizards Wednesday. The Wizards are coming off a hard-fought victory over the defending champion San Antonio Spurs at home Tuesday, and traveled overnight to the Windy City for this second half of back-to-back games.

Washington has shown that it’s susceptible to the letdown spot a few times this season. The Wizards faced a tough test in Oklahoma City two weeks ago, then fell to the Spurs the following night. Washington also followed a victory against Chicago with a flat outing against the Atlanta Hawks last week. Coming off a notable win against the reigning NBA title holders and making a quick trip to Chicago puts this team in another tough spot Wednesday.

The Bulls will be out for revenge after taking a one-sided 120-89 loss to Washington last week. Chicago is also looking to get on track after an embarrassing home loss to the Orlando Magic Monday night. Expect a much more stout effort from the Bulls defensively Wednesday, after watching Orlando score 121 points and Washington pile up 120 in their recent win over Chicago.

The Wizards ripe for the letdown in a tough back-to-back spot and the Bulls’ seeking to avenge a one-sided defeat is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Boston Celtics as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

The Celtics host the high-flying Atlanta Hawks, who bring a nine-game winning streak into Wednesday’s road date. The Hawks have covered the spread in each of those nine outings but the basketball markets are catching up to Atlanta and the value is being sucked out of its nightly odds. Wednesday’s game in Beantown is also a very tough spot, even for a team as hot as the Hawks.

Atlanta picked up win No. 9 over Philadelphia Tuesday. The Hawks take the court for the second night of back-to-back games against a Boston offense that likes to press the tempo, running the second fastest pace in the NBA at 99.6 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics will be able to take advantage of a fatigued Atlanta team that doesn’t look down its bench too often, averaging 16.4 minutes for reserves – among the lowest in the NBA.

On top of the tough task of playing back-to-back nights, the Hawks also run the risk of looking ahead to the final two road games of this current trip. Atlanta wraps up in Toronto and Chicago, two teams it will be jockeying with for playoff position in the Eastern Conference postseason picture. Boston is coming off a big home win against the New Orleans Pelicans and presents solid value as the home side Wednesday night.

An unfocused Hawks side with tired legs going against the Celtics up-tempo attack is why I’m playing on Boston as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as a 10* Monday.

Brooklyn hosts the Houston Rockets Monday, who are stacking the frequent flyer miles recently. Houston was in New York to play the Knicks Thursday, then had to fly home for a game against the Utah Jazz Saturday, before heading back to the Big Apple to face the Nets.

Brooklyn hopes to catch a jet-lagged Rockets squad Monday night. Houston has played five of its last seven away from home and isn’t nearly as tough defensively on the road, allowing foes to average 101.5 points per road game compared to just 92.4 points against inside the Toyota Center.

The Nets have dropped five straight but remain competitive most nights thanks to their controlled pace and stingy defense. Brooklyn has limited opponents to just over 92 points per game in this five-game slide. The Nets can throw some big bodies at the Rockets, keeping center Dwight Howard busy with the combo of Mason Plumlee and Brook Lopez down low. Not only are those two big men physical on the defensive end but they’re helping pick up the slack on offense.

Brooklyn’s offense plays a much slower pace than Houston, averaging 94.3 points per 100 possessions. The Nets can lure the Rockets into a methodical half-court game if they can take care of the basketball. Houston thrives on transitioning off turnovers, and Brooklyn can’t allow those mistakes to end up as easy buckets.

The Rockets’ frantic travel schedule and Brooklyn’s underrated defense is why I’m playing on Brooklyn as a 10* Monday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Bulls have a bad taste in their mouths after getting rolled by the Washington Wizards Friday night. Chicago is a resilient team and will take out those frustrations on the lowly Milwaukee Bucks inside the United Center Saturday.

The Bulls couldn’t slow down the Wizards' attack, which fired 47.7 percent from the field and knocked down eight of its 15 looks from beyond the arc. Chicago also committed 16 turnovers in the loss. Nights like those often leave players eager to get back on the court and erase the poor showing. Luckily, for the Bulls and us, they don’t have to wait long to do so, and present great value as a home side Saturday.

Milwaukee brings a bit of momentum into this matchup, which trims the spread a touch, earning back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia – the Bucks’ fellow basement dwellers. Milwaukee is very small inside right now, with center Larry Sanders in limbo, forward Ersan Ilyasova out with a concussion, and rookie Jabari Parker lost for the year.

Chicago’s backcourt combo of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler continue to struggle from the floor so expect the Bulls to get on the backs of their big men in this matchup, and exploit a thin Milwaukee forward corps.

Joakim Noah is working his way back to health and has some talented forwards around him in Pau Gasol and reserve center Taj Gibson. Chicago often dominates inside when playing at home, averaging 45.1 points in the paint in the Windy City, compared to just 38.3 on the road.

The Bulls’ anxiousness to erase Friday's poor performance and their dominance inside against a thin Bucks frontcourt is why I’m playing on Chicago as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. While it's true the Hawks ride a six-game road winning streak into L.A. tonight, I see the Clippers in a great situation here and I like them to come away with a convincing win.  
The Clippers are playing their sixth game of a nine-game home stand tonight, so they should be more than comfortable playing on home court and are likely experiencing their most consistent daily routines they'll see all season. 
They also had their first practice in nearly a month on Friday after playing 15 games in 33 days and the session paid off. L.A. pummeled the Sixers by 36 points and should be fully prepared coming into tonight's game against the Hawks. 
The Clippers are 4-1 straight up on their current home stand and they'll be looking for a little revenge after the Hawks beat them in their last game before the home stretch began. 
Atlanta is scoring off turnovers lately and I don't feel the Hawks can count on more of the same tonight. The Clippers rank fourth in the league with just 11.9 giveaways per game and point guard Chris Paul is tied for third in the NBA with 2.03 steals per game. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on BROOKLYN. I like that Brooklyn is getting a small pile of points at home here tonight in a matchup where both teams are playing on zero rest. 
Dallas is just 2-5 against the spread in the second of back to back spots this year and Brooklyn hasn't exactly been the Mavs' favorite opponent recently. The Nets won the last three meetings in the series and covered the spread in two of those. 
I think the Nets will give the Mavs some matchup problems inside where Brook Lopez and Mason Plumlee are doing some damage lately. Plumlee is averaging 14.5 points on 22-of-27 shooting over the last four games while Lopez is putting up 18 points on 31-of-50 shooting over the same time frame.
Dallas will likely look to win with quick transitions but where the Mavs are playing on back-to-back nights and in the final game of a 3-game East Coast road trip, I think they'll have trouble keeping their legs fresh as the game goes on. 
I like Brooklyn here, if not to win outright, then at least to cover this somewhat generous number at home for a team that has won six of its last eight games. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Non-Conference Game of the Week Friday.

The Jazz play hosts to the Atlanta Hawks, one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Hawks have won eight of their last 10 contests, including a statement win against the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last outing.

The market is jumping on Atlanta’s success and this spread is puffed up a bit to reflect that shift in betting action. That opens up value on Utah, especially with this being the first stop of a three-game Western Conference road run for the Hawks, who could get caught looking ahead to matchups in Portland and in Los Angeles.

The Jazz are playing some of the best basketball of their season so far, with wins coming in five of their last seven games. In fact, Utah has been a solid wager with ATS victories in seven of its previous 10 outings, including back-to-back home wins over Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Jazz have tightened up their defense during this stretch, allowing just under 92 points during that seven-game span – a sharp decline from their season defensive average of 100.0 points per game. Utah has trimmed that number to 88.7 points over its last three, with foes shooting just 41.8 percent.

The Jazz playing solid defense at home against a Hawks squad hitting the highway with some inflated odds if why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Non-Conference Game of the Week Friday.

I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 9* Personal Favorite Monday. The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Hornets, picking up their busy road schedule Monday night. The Bucks seem to be hitting the wall with three losses in their last four games and key players on the sidelines.

One of those losses came at home to the Hornets, who exploded out of the half for a 34-point third quarter and forced 20 total turnovers from the Bucks in a 108-101 road victory as 5.5-point underdogs. It was the fifth time Charlotte has covered in their last seven meetings with Milwaukee.

The Bucks looked lifeless in their second half of a home-and-home set with Atlanta, managing only 85 points on just under 39 percent shooting Saturday. They were without versatile rookie forward Jabari Parker and two key components of their frontcourt in center Larry Sanders and forward Ersan Ilyasova. Both big men won't be in action again Monday.

Milwaukee had 19 turnovers in that contests and continues to cough up the ball, averaging 17 giveaways per game – third most in the NBA. The Hornets are on the opposite end of the scale. Charlotte ranks tops in the NBA in turnovers per game, handing the ball over only 11 times a contest. It’s playing more a controlled pace and seeing great results in its backcourt.

Guard Kemba Walker has benefited the most, ranked among the best point guards in assist-to-turnover ratio and erupted for 42 points in the loss to Orlando Saturday. Charlotte should also get a big game from center Al Jefferson, going against a thin Milwaukee forward corps missing two top defenders.

The Bucks stretched thin on the road and the Bobcats capitalizing on Milwaukee’s turnover troubles is why I’m playing on Charlotte as my 9* Personal Favorite Monday.

I am playing on SAN ANTONIO.  The Spurs looked flat in a loss to Oklahoma City on Christmas Day and I believe they’ll bounce back today against the Pelicans. 

San Antonio seemed slow in transition and got killed on the boards 47-38, allowing OKC to grab 16 offensive rebounds yesterday. Sometimes it’s better to play on the road on Christmas Day to avoid the distractions and I think San Antonio may have been a little sluggish after a busy day at home with the families before heading to the arena. 

The Spurs are a great bounce-back team though and are 8-4 after a loss this season. I think they’ll have fresher legs today despite the back-to-back spot and they’ll be able to earn a win against the Pelicans. 

One thing I liked about the Spurs yesterday was their shooting. They were hitting a lot of their mid-range jump shots and went 42-of-81 on field goals (51.9 percent). I think we’ll see more of that hot shooting today and a more energetic squad going up against a Pelicans unit that might have a bit of the same Christmas legs syndrome the Spurs suffered from yesterday. 10* western conf. best bet

I am playing on DETROIT. Despite a four-game losing streak, the Pistons are showing some signs of coming together as a team and I like them to take a win from the sub-par Pacers today.

Detroit has seen five different players lead the team in scoring over its last five games, which says to me that everyone on this team is still fighting to win. The Pistons eliminated the distraction of trade rumors swirling around second leading scorer Josh Smith when they waived him a couple of days ago. It sounded like Smith wasn’t happy in Detroit and you have to wonder how much that was weighing things in the locker room.

Detroit still has five players who average double figures, so I don’t think it will be much of a tragic loss for the team and other players have been waiting to step up. Jodie Meeks is looking stronger every game and has scored in double digits in three of his six games since his return and provides Detroit with a much needed outside threat.

Defense has been the problem for the Pistons over their four-game losing streak but the Pacers are just the team you want to see when you are having trouble on D.  Indiana ranks 26th or worse in the NBA in 3-point shooting, field-goal shooting and points per game.   10* Best Bet

10* Clippers. Analysis before 10am PST

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday. Orlando plays host to a Boston Celtics team trying to find a new identity after dealing away point guard Rajon Rondo last week. The Magic are getting solid value at home Tuesday.

Boston’s up-tempo attack was missing that extra gear in a 100-84 road loss to the Miami Heat Sunday. The Celtics, who play one of the fastest paces in the NBA, scored a season-low 84 points on 39.8 percent shooting. Marcus Smart took over the point guard duties and Jameer Nelson came off the bench, failing to fill the scoring punch Rondo provided.

This Celtics team has plenty of work to do to plug those gaps but hitting the road won’t help the cause. Orlando is a solid defensive team, giving up 99.3 points per outing, and plays one of the more methodical paces in the game – averaging 94.6 per 100 possessions. It could drag this game into a snail's pace and force Boston to play a halfcourt set.

The Magic remain one of the better outside shooting teams in the NBA, knocking down 37.4 percent of their looks from beyond the arc. That number bumps up to 38.6 percent inside the Amway Center. Orlando is getting terrific production from reserve guard Evan Fournier, who has knocked down 40.7 percent of his 3-point attempts and comes into Tuesday with the hot hand, hitting seven of his 12 shots from distance.

If Orlando continues to knock down 3-point buckets, that could put some serious space between them and Boston on the scoreboard – a gap that the Celtics offense may not be able to close with the rotation a mess and the offensive identity in flux.

A Boston offense in turmoil and the Magic’s sharp shooting from outside is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. Los Angeles is laying a bunch of points but that doesn't bother me much here and I think they'll handily take care of the Bucks tonight.
I think the Clippers will come out hungry after a 109-106 loss to the Nuggets in which they missed a couple of three-pointers in the final seconds. 
Los Angeles actually doesn't mind playing on back-to-back nights this season where the team is 5-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. Milwaukee comes into this one in a much worse schedule spot, playing its third West Coast road game in four nights. 
I believe fatigue will show, especially on defense for the Bucks, which isn't good for them considering they're giving up a whopping average of 108.3 points over their last six games. The Clippers should take full advantage of that as the No. 4 scoring team in the NBA with 106 points per game this year.   
Another reason I like L.A. tonight is DeAndre Jordan. He's been a defensive beast for the Clippers this month with an average of 15.7 rebounds in nine games in December before last night's game and he's also averaging 2.8 blocks. 
With the Clippers' offense and Jordan's defense against a tired Bucks team, I believe we'll see the Clippers take this one and cover the big number in a dominating effort. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on DETROIT. Despite Detroit’s troubles this season, the team is showing some positive signs and I believe the Pistons are in a good spot to take the points Friday night. 
The Pistons have now lost 11 straight at home and crowds are getting more sparse every night. That just makes the Pistons more hungry to win a game for the home crowd and we’re seeing signs of fight from them. Andre Drummond scored 19 points and hauled in 24 rebounds in a monstrous effort against the Mavs two nights ago. Detroit failed to cover but was as close as being within five points with 2:35 left to play and narrowly missing covering for the third time in the team's last four games. 
I think the Pistons will rally around Drummond and continue to give teams a fight until they can get a win at the Palace. 
One thing I like about Detroit is I think we’ll start seeing better things from beyond the arc. They shot 39 percent from 3-point land Wednesday night, a huge improvement from their season average of 33 percent. 
The return of guard Jodie Meeks should help with that since his return four games ago and he’s slowly seeing more floor time each game. I think that will help Detroit spread the floor a little more and give Drummond some outside help as he continues to do some damage inside. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on DETROIT. The Pistons have shown signs of playing better recently with two wins in their last three games and I believe we’ll see a team hungry for a win tonight after failing to give the Motor City faithful a victory on home court in their last 10 games at the Palace.

Detroit went 2-1 on its recent West Coast road trip that ended with a 22-point drubbing at the hands of the Clippers. I think we can throw that last game out for what was likely a weary Pistons squad that was playing its third game in four nights in the Pacific Time Zone.

The good news in that blowout is that Jodie Meeks had a chance to see some floor time and he scored 20 points in 29 minutes. I think that could be just what he needed in his third game since returning from injury and I believe Detroit will start to see a much-needed contribution from him from 3-point range, where Detroit has struggled all season.

Trade rumors are swirling around the Pistons these days and that’s another reason I like them right now. It’s reasonable to think some players may want out of this losing squad that seems desperate for answers and sometimes we see teams elevate their play with potential trades in the works.

I like that Detroit is getting a handful of points at home here also. The Mavs are coming off a win over the Knicks last night and they tend to scrape out wins, but not cover in the second game of back-to-backs. They are 4-1 straight up in that spot this season but just 1-4 against the spread. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on DETROIT. I believe the Pistons are going to play with a little desperation tonight as they aim to avoid tying a franchise-worst 14-game losing streak. I believe that, along with a few other elements, will help them cover against the Suns tonight and I anticipate it happening with room to spare. 
The Pistons have covered five straight meetings with the Suns and they were set as underdogs in three of those. I think Detroit might be able to hit some three-pointers against the Suns to keep things close. The Suns have been allowing opponents to shoot better than 40 percent from downtown over their past five games and three-point land is one of the few spots Detroit ranks around the middle of the league (and not the bottom) with a 33.1 percent accuracy rate. 
Another element I like working for the Pistons here is rumors are swirling that the team could be broken up after the holidays. Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings have been mentioned as players the team might want to shop due to their big contracts. 
Considering Detroit is 3-19, it has the worst attendance in the NBA and Michigan winter weather is coming, it’s logical to assume players might want out. In times like this, we often see players step up their games and play their best basketball in hopes other teams might take interest. 
I believe that’s what will happen here and I’m taking the Pistons with a pile of points before oddsmakers adjust . 10* Best Bet

10* T-Wolves. Analysis before 10am PST.

I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Hornets have enjoyed an extended break following a win over New York that snapped a 10-game losing skid. That’s given Charlotte time to focus on what’s working and bring some important bodies back before taking on a Boston Celtics squad that’s already had a busy week.

The Hornets took a 103-102 win over the Knicks, finally getting the monkey off their backs. Charlotte then had four full days of rest and practice to prepare for the Celtics’ up-tempo attack. There are some pluses to having such an extended hiatus.

The Hornets will have forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back on the court Wednesday, providing a big lift on both ends of the floor. And Charlotte has been able to find other ways to integrate Lance Stephenson into the offense, after its big offseason addition finally started producing. Stephenson has scored 16 and 20 points in the last two games.

Boston went to war with the Washington Wizards this week. The Celtics took both games of a home-and-home set but those were grueling battles, avoiding a late collapse on Sunday and playing two overtime periods Monday.

The Celtics could come into this road game flat, especially against a Charlotte team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. The Hornets have a pace factor of 94.1 (points per 100 possessions), which ranks 26th in the league, while Boston tops the NBA with a torrid 100.7 pace. Charlotte could put the breaks on Boston’s style of play and force the Celtics into a halfcourt grinder.

A rested and prepared Hornets team and a Celtics side ripe for a flat performance is why I’m playing on Charlotte as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. The Pistons take on the Philadelphia 76ers playing the second night of back-to-back games after a hard-fought contest against the Thunder Friday night.

The market has corrected to the Sixers’ improved play. Philadelphia has covered in four straight games and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven outings, including picking up their very first win of the season during this span. Like all value plays in the modern sports betting era, this will dry up pretty quickly and there is now opportunity to play against the 76ers, who were 4-8 ATS before this recent stretch. We're staying ahead of the curve with this selection.

Detroit is not the team you want to face on the second night of back-to-back games. The Pistons play a physical brand of basketball, with a beefy frontcourt pounding on opponents and a dominance on the glass, fighting for every rebound. Detroit pulls down 54.6 boards per game – fourth most in the NBA – picking up 12.6 of those rebounds on the offensive glass. Expect the Pistons to win the loose-ball battles and score easy second-chance points.

Philadelphia has been battling hard during that current ATS hot streak, playing against some of the toughest teams in the NBA – OKC, Dallas, San Antonio. There might not be much left in the tank after an up-and-down game with the Thunder Friday. The Sixers watched Oklahoma City knock down 49.3 percent of its looks Friday and is allowing opponents to shot 46.6 percent on the season. Philadelphia is just 18-38 ATS in its last 56 games when playing the night before – covering just 32 percent of the time.

The market adjustment on the Sixers’ ATS streak and their second game of back-to-backs versus the physical Pistons is why I’m playing on Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

10* Wizards. Analysis before 10am PST

I am playing on the PISTONS. This matchup against the Lakers is just what the Pistons sorely need tonight and I believe Detroit will snap its eight-game losing skid. 
There’s nothing like facing the NBA’s worst defensive team when you are the NBA’s worst shooting team and the Pistons have the added benefit of home court. The Lakers are allowing a pathetic 112 points per game, while Detroit is shooting just 41.2 percent on field goals this season. 
One of the reasons I believe the struggling offense will beat the struggling defense here is because the Lakers are coming off an emotional 129-122 overtime win over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. Kobe Bryant had his 20th career triple double and became the first player to ever reach 30,000 points and 6,000 assists with the effort.   
As a result, Kobe has been the talk of the NBA world for two days and Twitter has been abuzz with his incredible achievements. Any time the Lakers are small favorites or underdogs (like tonight), books know they are going to attract some automatic Laker action. In those instances, I often lean toward fading L.A. but when the Lakers are getting this much added attention I like the play even more. 
The Pistons desperately need a win, especially at home, and I think they’ll take capitalize on a Lakers squad that is horrible defensively and in an emotional letdown spot. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Hawks host the New Orleans Pelicans, who are in a grueling stretch of games in which they play nine of 11 contests away from the Big Easy.

Atlanta is eager to get back on the court after a missed opportunity against the conference-leading Toronto Raptors Wednesday. The Hawks had strung together back-to-back wins in the two games prior, including a statement win over the Washington Wizards the night before. They’re playing solid basketball in recent weeks, winning six of their last nine outings with a 5-4 ATS mark in that span.

Atlanta has one of the most efficient offense in the NBA, netting 103.5 points on 46.6 percent shooting per game. However, if the Hawks are to keep this pace they know they must tighten up on defense as the calendar flips to December. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has been preaching improvement on that side of the ball since the offseason and isn’t content with Atlanta allowing 104.3 points per night – 25th in the NBA.

The Pelicans pose a moderate threat on the offensive side of the court. New Orleans scored only 89 points in a home loss to Sacramento before the Thanksgiving break and is putting up an average of just over 98 points in its last five games – going 2-3 SU and ATS in that stretch. Hawks forward Paul Millsap will be a handful on both ends of the floor for Pelicans star center Anthony Davis, who scored just 14 points while playing under the weather against the Kings.

Atlanta’s efficient offense and home-court edge over a road weary Pelicans team is why I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Raptors are getting more attention than just about anyone would have projected at this point in the early season and as a result we're going to start seeing their lines inflate.  I feel that's the case Monday night at home when they're laying a handful against the smoking-hot Suns. The Suns have won four in a row and I expect them to pour everything they have into their final game of a six-game road trip in Toronto.  Phoenix is playing fantastic team basketball right now and using a deep bench to stay fresh during the club's travels. Head coach Jeff Hornacek said "There is something about being on the road" after Saturday's win over Indiana and talked about how his team is finding its groove.  Gerald Green scored a game-high 23 points against the Pacers while Isaiah Thomas chipped in with 16 with both players coming off the bench. No player saw more than 26 minutes on Saturday night, which is why I fully expect the Suns to maintain top speed tonight.  Phoenix is the fourth leading scoring team in the NBA with 105.3 points per game and they are the best free throw shooting team. They also hold the edge in rebounding margin over the Raptors, who are one of the worst rebounding squads in the league with a margin of -2.31.   I like the Suns to get it done against a slightly overvalued Raptors team and I'll take the points while I can get them. This is just the third time all year Phoenix has been an underdog. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Revenge Best of the Best Wednesday. The Nuggets get a chance to even the score with the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday, hosting OKC after losing to the Thunder 102-91 on the road earlier this month.

The Nuggets are back home in the Pepsi Center after a three-game Eastern Conference road trip that was highlighted by a victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday night. Denver took a 106-97 win, returning the favor for a 110-101 home loss to the Cavs on Nov. 7. Revenge is something this Nuggets team is used to dishing out.

The Thunder face a tough schedule spot Wednesday. They’re playing the second game of a back-to-back after tangling with the Utah Jazz Tuesday night. On top of that, this a three-in-four-night spot for Oklahoma City, having lost to the Houston Rockets Sunday, and OKC climbs the Rocky Mountains and will be feeling extra fatigued in the thin air in Denver.

That frantic schedule and tough road date in Colorado compounds the Thunder’s thinning roster right now. Injuries have not only taken away their two top scorers – Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook – but reserves like Perry Jones and Andre Roberson are out of action, leaving OKC running on fumes in this spot.

A Nuggets team out for revenge and a road-weary Thunder squad sucking wind in the Pepsi Center is why I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Revenge Best of the Best Wednesday.

I am playing on NEW YORK. The Knicks finally snapped their streak of futility after seven games with a win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I like the Knicks to continue their winning ways Tuesday night in Milwaukee and they even have a few points to work with as the underdog.

New York is finally showing signs of life in its new and much talked about triangle offense implemented by coach Derek Fisher this season. The Knicks managed 100 points or more in each of their last two games, which were the first games they reached triple digits all season.  

“Every game I'm starting to become a little bit more comfortable with my role,” Carmelo Anthony said after the game.

Anthony poured in 28 points and had just 14 field goal attempts on Sunday and he’s made 20 of his past 27 shots over his last six quarters for 58 points. With Anthony playing more effectively, J.R. Smith had his best game of the year Sunday also with 28 points of his own.

I don’t feel oddsmakers quite believe the Knicks have sorted out their woes yet, which is why we’re getting a good number on New York here on Tuesday. I expect the cat to be out of the bag in another game or two and every NBA bettor will soon know the Knicks have found their offensive rhythm. 10* Best Bet - Knicks

I am playing on MEMPHIS. The Grizzlies have won 19 straight games at home and catch Houston in a great spot on home court on Monday.  The Rockets are playing the second game in a back-to-back situation after facing Oklahoma City last night and this is their third game in four nights. Houston did try to use its bench at OKC in a game in which they scored just 69 points, but their two stars James Harden and Dwight Howard each played over 37 minutes apiece.  I believe that’s an especially tough spot for Howard, who will face his toughest post challenge of the season with the Grizzlies’ duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. The pair have helped lead Memphis to a 9-1 start to the season and are a huge reason why they lead the NBA in points allowed at 91.3 and rank fourth in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is also getting fantastic back court play right now from point guard Mike Conley, who’s average six assists and almost 17 points per game. The return of Courtney Lee on Nov. 5 has been a huge help also. He’s averaging 15.5 points on 53.3 percent shooting in the six games since his return.  A defensive stalwart on the road is a brutal matchup for the Rockets during this grinding stretch of their schedule. I believe Memphis will continue its winning ways at home and cover the small number set by oddsmakers. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday. The Clippers have enjoyed an extended break, with their last game coming five days ago. That’s a much-needed hiatus after an inconsistent start to the year. Los Angeles will have fresh legs against the Phoenix Suns, who are playing the second half of back-to-back games Saturday night.

The Suns roll into L.A. fresh off a home loss to the Charlotte Hornets Friday night. Phoenix, which will be playing its third game in four nights Saturday, crumbled in the fourth quarter after having a one-point lead, giving up 29 points to the Hornets in the final frame. The Suns have allowed opponents to top the 100-point plateau in six of their last seven games and rank 24th in the league in defense.

The Clippers hope the time off worked out the kinks in their offense. Los Angeles is shooting 44.9 percent from the field and averaging just over 100 points per game, after posting 108 points per outing in 2013 – tied for tops in the NBA.The Clippers won’t need too much extra in the points department to edge a weary Suns team, about to tip off a six-game road trip which will send them East for most of the month.

This situational matchup, with the Clippers well rested and the Suns going back-to-back nights, is why I’m playing on Los Angeles as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday.

I’m playing on the New York Knicks as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Knicks welcome a road weary Utah Jazz team to Madison Square Garden and try to snap a six-game losing slide in what is shaping up to be a must-win game for New York.

The Knicks have stumbled out of the blocks, falling back in the Eastern Conference standings. New York’s offense has struggled to find its form in head coach Derek Fisher’s new triangle offense, coming into Friday ranked among the bottom of the league in scoring. However, star forward Carmelo Anthony is starting to heat up – scoring 27 points on 10-of-17 shooting in the loss to Orlando - and can spark this offense if he finds his stroke.

The Jazz may be the perfect opponents to help New York end this slide. Utah’s defense is giving up 102.2 points per game to start the season, and allowed Atlanta to shoot better than 51 percent from the field in their loss to the Hawks Wednesday. On the other side of the floor, the Jazz don’t pose much of an offensive threat to the Knicks, managing just 90.5 points per game over their last four contest.

New York has owned Utah in recent meetings, having covered the spread in 20 of their previous 26 head-to-head battles, including a 9-0 ATS winning streak against the Jazz inside MSG.

A desperate Knicks teams and a road-weary Jazz side is why I’m playing on New York as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I am playing on the KNICKS. While New York is still struggling to find any sort of rhythm, the good news is that the Knicks are catching the right team at the right time to get back on track.  The Magic are coming off an excruciating loss to the Raptors last night during which they held a double-digit lead at one point. Orlando collapsed in the final quarter and was outscored 32-17 to lose 104-100.  “It’s very hard, but it’s basketball,” guard Evan Fournier said after the loss. “I feel like I’m saying the same stuff for five games: We play good and we have a little stretch where we just don’t pay attention to the details, and that’s basically where we lose the game.” Magic coach Jaque Vaughn had to play his starters more than he likely would’ve wanted to in a back-to-back situation with four of his starting five playing at least 39 minutes each. But the Magic were desperately trying to salvage the win and managing for tonight’s game against the Knicks went out the window.  I believe the Knicks will be able to take advantage of a fatigued and demoralized Magic squad on home court tonight. Orlando went  5-13 in the second game of back-to-backs last season and the Knicks have won and covered nine of the last 10 meetings with Orlando. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Magic head north of the border to face the Toronto Raptors Tuesday night. Toronto has jumped out to a strong start to the season but has built that record against some softer opponents.

The Raptors added another tick to their win column with a blowout over Philadelphia Sunday. Toronto is surprising some with its 6-1 record to open the year but a quick glance at who those victories have come against will make you think twice about Toronto’s elite status.

The Raptors have puffed up their odds with wins over the hapless Sixers, Celtics, Hawks and Tuesday’s opponents the Magic, and taken advantage of teams missing key players – Wizards and Thunder. Those six clubs have a combined record of 14-25 and Washington is currently the only one over .500.

Unlike the overvalued Raptors, the Magic have been very undervalued in their recent outings. Orlando has covered in three of its last four games – all of those ATS wins coming as an underdog. The Magic have done a good job defending in that span, giving up just over 96 points in regulation in those four contests. That’s a major improvement on Orlando’s season average of 101 points against.

The Raptors’ soft opening schedule and the Magic’s new-found defense is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. Phoenix is at home hosting a Golden State Warriors side coming off a huge game against the Houston Rockets Saturday night.

Golden State will be ripe for a letdown after mixing it up with the Western Conference-leading Rockets. Back-to-back games will have the Warriors up-tempo offense a step slower, which will benefit a Phoenix side rested up and motivated after a crushing loss to Sacramento in two overtimes Friday night.

The Suns are planning on picking up the pace with their offense – perfect timing to put Golden State on its heels. Phoenix opened that loss to Sacramento with a 36-point first quarter before pumping the breaks the rest of the game. Head coach Jeff Hornacek liked what he saw in that opening frame and is telling his backcourt to pick up the pace instead of walking into the offense.

The Suns have the horses to match the Warriors' pace, scoring an average of 103.2 points per game to start the season. Phoenix has covered in four of its previous five meetings with Golden State and has come away as an ATS victor in six of its last eight games versus the Warriors inside US Airways Center.

A letdown spot for the Warriors and the Suns' commitment to pushing the pace is why I’m playing on Phoenix as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles is try to erase a bad loss to Golden State when the Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. Los Angeles has stumbled to open the schedule and head coach Doc Rivers ripped into this players, hoping to light a fire for this game.

The Clippers have been terribly inconsistent to start the year, following wins with losses in their last four contests. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t where it needs to be, allowing more than 104 points per game, but Saturday offers a chance to make a statement against a hungry team trying to leapfrog L.A. in the Western Conference.

Portland is coming off two straight wins over Cleveland and Dallas, and is bound for a letdown on the road Saturday. The Blazers offense depends a lot on PG Damian Lillard to create chances, and when he struggles so does Portland. Los Angeles will throw a lot of bodies at Lillard Saturday, using Chris Paul, Jordan Farmar and Chris Douglas-Roberts to disrupt his night.

The Clippers frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan match up well with Blazers versatile big man LaMarcus Aldridge and have the athletic ability to stay with him inside and out. Aldridge put up just 16 and 20 points in the past two games and will have limited looks Saturday.

The Clippers getting a wake-up call and bad matchups for the Blazers is why I’m playing on Los Angeles. 10* 

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday. The Blazers are coming off a statement win over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home and now try to make waves in their own conference with a victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the Rose Garden Thursday night.

Portland did a great job defensively against the Cavaliers, limiting Cleveland to 82 points on 36.5 percent shooting. The most impressive performance was the effort put in by Wesley Matthews, who checked LeBron James to 4-of-12 shooting and only 11 points. The Trail Blazers' hard-nosed defense faces a Dallas offense that ranks No. 1 in the league after just four games – averaging 111.8 points a night.

The Mavericks are opening a tough stretch of schedule that has them in action three of the next four nights. Dallas’ defense hasn’t been the tightest to open the year, giving up 105 points per game so far and allowing basement teams like Boston and Utah to hang over 100 points on them in the first four contests.

Portland has plenty of firepower as well. It boasts one of the best inside-out combos in Damian Lillard, who woke up from his scoring slumber with 27 points versus the Cavs, and forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a tough matchups for the Mavericks on both ends of the floor. The Blazers’ production will see a major increase with Lillard back on track after he misfired in the first three games of the year.

A dreadful Dallas defense and a Blazers team rounding into form is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday.

I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Pistons play host to the New York Knicks, who are coming off a loss to Washington Tuesday night. Detroit is hungry for its first win of the season and its physical brand of basketball will wear down a Knicks side playing the second half of back-to-back games.

The Pistons had the misfortune of opening the season with two straight road games, then completely laid an egg against Brooklyn at home this weekend. Detroit has had an extended break to work out those early-season kinks and new head coach Stan Van Gundy has his team prepared to face the Knicks Wednesday.

New York was rolled by the Wizards, losing 98-83 after getting outscored 58-38 in the second half. That late letdown is a sign of a fatigued team. The Knicks have a minus-6.5 point second-half scoring differential to start the year – sixth lowest in the NBA – and shot just 37 percent from the field Tuesday.

Detroit is a big physical team that bullies its way inside and crashes the boards hard, ranking as one of the top rebounding clubs in the league. That bruising style of play will wear down an already-tired New York side that kicks off a three-game road trip in Motown Wednesday night. 

A hungry and hefty Pistons side and a Knicks team running on empty is why I’m playing Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Blazers are getting discounted at home against the overhyped Cleveland Cavaliers, opening a three-game Western road trip Tuesday.

Cleveland enters Tuesday’s game coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Chicago Bulls Halloween night. The Cavaliers aren’t crushing opponents as many predicted, instead stumbling through the same chemistry issues LeBron James faced when he joined the Miami Heat. Cleveland is nowhere near as solid on defense as the Heat were and it’s shown in the early goings.

Portland is always a tough team inside the Rose Garden, and is looking to right the ship after back-to-back losses. The Trail Blazers need more from All-Star guard Damian Lillard, who is expected to play Tuesday after nursing an abdominal injury. Lillard is shooting under 27 percent from the field to start the year but will rise to the challenge of Cleveland’s stud PG Kyrie Irving. Last season, Lillard hung 36 and 28 points on the Cavs in their two meetings.

While the stars will shine when these teams collide, the difference will likely be Portland’s ability to go down the bench compared to Cleveland’s shallow reserves. The Blazers can bring in veteran bodies like C Chris Kaman and PG Steve Blake at those key positions, and backups Will Barton and Thomas Robinson are instant energy players. Cleveland’s bench ranks third last in production and doesn’t get much beyond swingman Tristan Thompson.

The Blazers’ depth and Lillard’s dominance versus the Cavaliers is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Thursday. The Clippers have a chance to get a leg up on the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the season, taking on an OKC team without NBA MVP Kevin Durant. These head-to-head matchups are very important for L.A. and could be a major factor once Durant returns and the Western Conference playoff races take shape.

The Thunder looked lost in their first game without Durant at the center of the offense. Oklahoma City was dropped 106-89 by Portland Wednesday night, failing to cover as a 9-point road underdog in the Rose Garden. Russell Westbrook scored 38 in the loss, but the Thunder received little offensive help outside of that, shooting a combined 40.7 percent and managing just 12 points in the fourth quarter.

Oklahoma City is used to Durant creating points when the offense breaks down as well as finding scoring chances for his teammates when defenses key on the dynamic forward. The Thunder are reliant on his ability to stretch the floor and draw bigger defenders away from the hoop with his range from outside. 

Los Angeles has plenty of size and talent around the basket and should dominate the Thunder’s frontcourt with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Spencer Hawes down low. This is a big game for the franchise, debuting for the first time under the ownership of Steve Ballmer. The Clippers will be motivated to open this new era with a bang.

A lost OKC offense and a bigger, motivated Clippers team is why I’m playing on the L.A. Clippers as my 10* GOM.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns enter this season as perhaps the hungriest team in the NBA after missing the playoffs by one game last year and the Lakers have the misfortune of facing them first.

Phoenix catches the Lakers on the second of back-to-back nights after L.A. fell at home to Houston last night in its season opener.  That’s a big advantage for the Suns against a banged up Lakers lineup that just lost first-round draft pick Julius Randle last night to a broken leg.

New Lakers coach Byron Scott has also said throughout this offseason he’ll be limiting Kobe Bryant’s minutes in the second of back-to-back games, another plus for the Suns tonight.

I believe Phoenix will use one of the best and deepest backcourts in the league to outlast L.A. tonight and win their seventh straight at home against the Lakers. The Suns went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the number last year against L.A. – a reflection of how they played against the bottom half of the league.

The  Suns went 30-9 against the 14 teams with losing records last campaign and should be looking forward to opening the year against a team they’ve had a lot of recent success against. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on MIAMI. I’ve successfully backed the Spurs a few times in this series now, supporting them in Game 1 and Game 3. This will be the first time that I’m taking Miami though.

The Spurs have certainly looked impressive the past two games. They’re obviously a very good team, one which is playing very well right now. The Heat are still the champs though and I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a serious fight.

Lets not forget that the Heat are still 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were trailing in a playoff series.

While neither game at Miami was close, the two here at San Antonio were. The most recent game (Game 2) here was decided by only two points. The first game here saw San Antonio win by 15. However, that game was also close until the final minutes. I won’t be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. That said, we’re getting more points with the Heat than we were for any game in these playoffs and I’m grabbing all the points I can get. 10* main event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. These teams split the first two games at San Antonio. While the Spurs did pull away at the end of the first, both games were close. I won’t be surprised to see an important Game 3 also come down to the wire. That said, I believe that getting this many points with the visitors is providing us with plenty of value. 

The Heat are well known for their ability to bounce back from a playoff loss and they added to that reputation on Sunday. The Spurs are pretty good at doing so themselves though and they tend to thrive when a series is tied. They’re 4-1 SU their last five off a loss, most recently beating the Thunder by 28.

A very well-coached team which almost never panics, the Spurs are also an outstanding 27-11 SU (25-12-1 ATS) the last 38 times that they played when a series was tied. During that stretch, they’re 32-15 ATS (39-8 SU!) off an upset loss. 

Last year, just like this year, the Spurs won Game 1 and the Heat won Game 2. The Spurs would go on to win Game 3 by 36 points, the most one-sided game of the series. While a similar blowout would be surprising, another Spurs’ victory would not. 10* main event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Obviously, both teams really want to start the series with a victory. Playing at home, I believe its more important for the Spurs to do so though. I expect them to have a little more sense of urgency.

San Antonio has been all business in Game 1 the last couple of rounds. The Spurs won the opening game of the last series by 17 points. The previous round, they won the opening game by 24. Having lost the first game against Indiana - and still easily winning the series - and having lost the first game against the Spurs in last years Finals, the Heat may have the sense that they could do so again.

While the Heat are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the Spurs are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes a 111-87 destruction of the Heat when the teams met here in March. I look for Popovich to have them ready and I expect them to take care of business once again. 10* roast

I’m playing on San Antonio. Nobody has forgotten the 2012 Western Conference Finals. The Spurs won the first two games against the Thunder in that series only to go on to lose the next four. While some are expecting history to repeat itself, I’m not among them.

These are not the 2012 Spurs. This is a team which does not panic. While this is a Game 5 instead of a Game 7, its obviously a critical game, one the Spurs can ill afford to lose. Here’s a small excerpt from a writeup I used the last time that the Spurs were in a “must win” situation, Game 7 against the Mavs:

"...Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed...’' (The Spurs would go on to win in blowout fashion.)

I believe that sense of calmness, which comes from their experience, their coach and the type of players (Duncan) they have, will serve them well here. They know what they need to do and I look for them to do it.

Obviously, home court has been huge in the series. The home team has won big in all four games.

The Spurs have been money over the years, Game 3 notwithstanding, when off a double-digit loss. They’re 8-6 ATS 12-2 SU the last 14 times that they were off a loss of 10 or more points, going 21-14 ATS (29-6 SU) their last 35. Going back over the years, we find them at a lucrative 124-86-10 ATS their last 220 in that situation.

I expect home court to again prove to be the difference, the Spurs improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 10* Roast

I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers were already heavy underdogs coming into the series and now nobody is giving them any chance at all. I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a fight though. The pressure is now completely off the Pacers. I believe they’ll be able to be loose, while also playing with a sense of pride at the same time.

The Pacers are still 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) their last 11 when trailing in a playoff series. During that time, they’re 39-11 at home (Miami 26-21 on road) and 15-6 off a double-digit loss.

Obviously, the Heat would really like to close out the series tonight. However, with the Spurs/Thunder now still a long way from being over, there may not be quite the same sense of urgency, as there would be if the Spurs had swept, as some thought might be the case after the first two games in that series.

The four point Game 2 loss notwithstanding, the Pacers have had plenty of recent success against the Heat here. I believe they’ll come in expecting to win.

George Hill had this to say: ''I think that is when we are at our best, when our back is against the wall. We are going to be home in front of our fans and I'm sure they're going to be going crazy.’’ I agree. 10* main event

I’m on OKLAHOMA CITY. I respect the Spurs and have backed them a few times of late, most recently in Game 1 of this series. However, I believe this is a strong spot for the Thunder. 

As you’re probably aware, the Spurs are up 2-0. Neither game at San Antonio was close. This game is at Oklahoma City though. The Thunder have won back-to-back games here and are 15-4 their last 19 here. They’ve also owned the Spurs here. In fact, they’re a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven meetings against San Antonio here.

Speaking of 7-0, the Thunder are also 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the last seven times that they’d played their previous three or more games on the road, 18-4 SU their last 22 in that situation. 

There’s some talk that Ibaka could come back, as he’s been healing faster than expected. Obviously a healthy Ibaka would help this team a lot. I’m not going to rely on him returning though. 

Even with the loss in Game 2, the Thunder are still 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Obviously, they need a win here. With Durant and Westbrook rising to the occasion, I expect them to get it, covering the small number along the way. 10* Conf. Finals GOY

I’m playing on INDIANA. Homecourt didn’t mean much in the Pacers’ last series. However, I expect it to prove significant here.

The Heat are still only 25-20 on the road. The Pacers are still 38-10 at home. The Heat allow 97.4 points on the road. The Pacers allow only 88.9 here at home.

All four regular season meetings were won by the home team. The Pacers won the two games here by scores of 90-84 and 84-83. In both cases, Indiana was favored. This time, we’re actually getting a couple of points.

Nearly everyone expects the Heat to win. I believe the Pacers match up well against them though. This is the series they’ve been waiting for all season and I expect it to bring out their best.

With their last game having come Thursday, the Pacers have had an optimal amount of rest, at least for them; not too much, not too little. They’re 15-2 SU (11-6 ATS) when playing with two day’s rest. The Pacers know they can’t afford to lose another Game 1. Don’t be shocked when they score the upset. 10* main event

I’m playing on OKC. This series has been getting closer and closer and the two previous games here at LA . The first game (at OKC) was decided by 17 points, the second by 11. When the series shifted to LA for Game 3, the game was decided by only six points. Neither team ever led by double-digits. Game 4 was even closer, as it was decided by only two points. Last game? The closest yet, a 1-point win for OKC. While we can’t keep getting closer (as you can’t get closer than Game 5) another close one tonight won’t surprise. (Overall, the total points in the series is 540-539.) That said, I believe the number of the visiting Thunder is generous.

Homecourt has meant little in the series, as the road team has covered four of five games. The Thunder covered both games here at LA, winning one by six and losing the other by two. Keep in mind that there are still distractions from the Sterling scandal still in LA. Additionally, the Clippers could easily be thinking about “what might have been,” after blowing Game 5 in heart-breaking (and controversial) fashion.

Remember last round? Just like this series, the Thunder also saw their Game 5 (at OKC) decided by a single point, a 99-100 thriller vs. the Grizzlies. Remember what happened in Game 6? The Thunder went on the road and crushed the Grizzlies by 20 points.

The Thunder know the Spurs are waiting and they’d really rather not have to drag this to a Game 7. They’re 5-1 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* main event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. After dominating the first three games of the series, the Spurs stumbled in Game 4. Give the Blazers credit for showing some pride and avoiding the sweep. However, even they know that their chances of coming back to win the series are remote, at best. With the series shifting back to San Antonio, I expect the savvy Spurs to leave no room for doubt.

The Spurs jumped all over the Blazers in the two games here. They were up 65-39 and 70-51 at halftime. They’re going to come out with a lot of intensity again and I feel it will be difficult for the Blazers to avoid falling behind. If/When they do fall behind, reality figures to set in - their season is done.

The Spurs are 11-7 ATS (16-2 SU!) off an “upset” loss. Going back further finds them at a profitable 31-15 ATS (38-8 SU!) in that situation the past few seasons. In fact, that’s been a spot they’ve fared well in throughout the majority of the Duncan/Popovich era.

The Blazers have already had a successful season and can hold their heads high. The Spurs are on a mission though and I expect them to advance with a double-digit win. 10* 2nd Rd. GOY

I’m playing on INDIANA. With three straight victories, the Pacers have taken this series over. The team that dominated much of the regular season has seemingly returned. That said, with a chance to close the deal and a line this low, I feel they’re providing us with excellent value.

The Pacers are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. When they finally got a chance to put the Hawks away, they did so decisively. I expect them to do so again here. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. We saw the road teams have success last night. However, I expect the home team to have the advantage here.

Give the Blazers credit for having a great series against Houston. That was another relatively inexperienced playoff team though. Tonight, they’ll be up against a veteran team that is loaded with playoff experience and savvy, not to mention talent. 

The Blazers are excellent at home but only respectable on the road. The Spurs, on the other hand, are dominant (35-10) at home. They outscore teams by an average of 106-97.6 here overall.

While the Blazers have been sitting around for a few days, the Spurs come in with plenty of momentum, as Sunday's Game 7 was their biggest win of the opening series. 

Off that 119-96 beatdown, note that the Spurs are 71-42-3 ATS (81-35 SU) the past few seasons, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. 

The Spurs beat the Blazers by 13 here the last time the teams met. They were laying -8.5 points for that one. We’re getting a better line to work with and I expect another big win. 10* annihilator

I’m playing on INDIANA. Its true that the Wizards had an easier time in the first round than the Pacers did. That has allowed them some extra preparation time, as they’ve had more time in between games than Indiana. I believe the Pacers have regained momentum though and don’t feel the small window in between games will hurt them. In fact, I feel it will work to their advantage. Note that the Wizards have some similarities with the Hawks, in terms of playing style. So, the Pacers should be somewhat ready for them.

Meanwhile, when they’d been playing so well, the Wizards probably didn’t need such an extended break between games. Note that Washington is only 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the last six times it played with three or more day’s rest in between games.

Looking at some stats and we find that the Pacers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. They’re also 19-9 ATS (21-7 SU) the last few seasons, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

The Pacers have beaten the Wizards 12 straight times here, most recently a 93-66 destruction in January. Before that, it was a 93-73 blowout in November. They’ve been laying a minimum of -6.5 points for all eight meetings against the Wizards here since 2010, including -9.5 and -10 for this season’s two meetings. We’re getting a much smaller number to work with here and I believe that’s providing excellent value. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Admittedly, the Spurs haven’t been very good to me this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though.

We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game.

One could certainly make a case for the Mavericks, as they’ve played the Spurs tough every game. At the end of the day, I believe the Spurs’ depth and experience will prove to be too much for them. Not only are the Spurs at home, they’re a superior team overall.

Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed.''

The Spurs, who were favored in Game 6, are an outstanding 30-15 ATS (37-8 SU!) the last 45 times that they were off an upset loss. I don’t believe run is over yet. I look for them to come through with their best game of the series, en route to a big win and cover. 10* main event

I’m playing on TORONTO. Many are likely going to back Brooklyn here. True, the Nets have a lot of recognizable faces and plenty of playoff experience. However, I really like the character of this well-coached Raptor team and I believe that playing an early Sunday game (something they do regularly) here at Toronto gives them the advantage.

We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game, each by a minimum of five.

Brooklyn’s Andray Blatche was doing some trash-talking and guaranteed the Nets would win this game. That didn’t sit well with the Raptors. Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez had this to say: ''Who does he think he is? He's not KG or Paul Pierce or Jason Kidd. We're not going to listen to his nonsense.’'

I agree with DeRozan when he said that the Nets had more pressure on them. He had this to say: ''Yeah, man. We ain't got not 100 million payroll or whatever they got. That's all on them. At the end of the day, they have more to lose than us.''

The Nets are just 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) as road underdogs of three or fewer points. They’re also 2-3 ATS (1-4 SU) when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. On the other hand, the Raptors are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites of three or less. Don’t be surprised when they improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* breakfast club

I’m playing on LA. This series has certainly had a little bit of everything. While the last game came down to the wire, there have also been a few lopsided victories. The more focused team and/or the one which has overcome distractions, has generally had the advantage. With this being a Game 7, once the game starts, I expect both teams to effectively block out the distractions and this one to be decided on the floor. Playing at home, I like the Clippers’ chances.

There’s a fair amount of talk about LA’s Chris Paul being injured. He’s a warrior though and I’m not too worried about that. Paul had this to say: ''I'll be there. Seven-thirty, that ball's throwed up, I'll be there. Can't wait.’”

I’m not so confident that Golden State’s Jermaine O’neal will be able to bounce back and be ready the way Paul is for the Clippers. Even if he plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100%. For a Warriors’ team already without Bogut, that figures to spell trouble.

While they failed to cover in all three games at Oakland, the Clippers won each of the last two here at LA by double-digits. Those wins came by 10 and 40 points. With Paul refusing to let his team lose, I look for the Clippers to overcome the adversity with another convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on OKC. The Thunder have regained the momentum and are back at home. They fought hard all season to be able to play this game here and I expect them to rise to the occasion with their best effort.

As if beating the Thunder in a Game 7 at OKC wasn’t already going to be difficult enough, the Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph, who has been suspended. While that caused the line to climb slightly, I think his loss is greater than was reflected by the relatively small move. Throw in the fact that Conley is way less than 100% and things aren't going to easy for the Grizzlies, who are rarely as good on the road as they are at home.

Conley commented: "Me being banged up, you're going to have to ask more out of different guys, see a lot of guys step up ...''

The Thunder are the stronger team. They won by 20 last time out, their second double-digit win in the series. Playing at home, I look for them to dictate the tempo en route to another convincing win and cover. 10*

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. I haven’t had much success with the Spurs in this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though. 

The Mavs got big games from Nowitzki and Carter last time out and still lost by six. A closer look shows that all three San Antonio victories have come by a minimum of four points. Tonight, with a lower line, that’ll be enough for a cover. 

Speaking of the lower line, note that the Mavs are only 2-6 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. 

The Spurs, who are 70-41-3 ATS (80-34 SU) the past couple of seasons after scoring 105 or more in their previous game, have got the momentum back in their corner. Needless to day, they don’t want to see a Game 7. I believe they’ll smell the blood in the water and close things out, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. While they didn’t make it easy on themselves, the Spurs dug deep and came away with a badly needed victory last time out. Now, despite the venue shifting back to San Antonio, they’re only laying a couple more points than they were at Dallas. I believe that’s providing excellent value.

While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start. Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS (or 13-7-1 ATS) the last 21 in the series.

It should be noted that Blair is suspended for Dallas, for a kick in the last game. When he left the last game, he was 5 for 5 on shooting with 12 points and 11 rebounds (+ 2 steals) in 16 minutes. I believe that his absence will prove to be a big blow.

The Spurs have been here before. They're 23-11-1 ATS (24-11 SU) the last 35 times that they’ve been tied in a playoff series.

I believe the Spurs now have the momentum back on their side. I expect them to put it all together with their best game of the series, leading to a convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Give the Mavericks credit. They’re up 2-1 and playing Game 4 here at home. However, lets not forget that the Spurs were the best team in the league during the regular season. Night after night, city after city, they brought their A-Game. While its not an elimination game, its still one the Spurs know they desperately need. I expect them to be at their best.

Keep in mind that the Spurs 30-11 road record was better than the Mavs’ 23-18 mark here at Dallas. While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start.

Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS the last 20 in the series.

Despite failing to get it done last time out, the Spurs are still a dominating 30-14 ATS (36-8 SU) the last 44 times that they were off an “upset” loss, 10-6 ATS this season. On the other hand, the Mavs are just 5-7 ATS off a SU victory as an underdog.

The Spurs are 15-9 ATS the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. That includes a 6-3 ATS mark this season. Conversely, the Mavs are 2-7 ATS when playing a home game with a total in the same range, 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons.

Losing in the manner the Spurs lost Game 3 can be tough on a team. However, as Ginobili noted of the extremely well-coached Spurs: ''On a tough blow like this one, having been there, having suffered way worse than this, can help … We’ve got to go for it and play better.”

I’m not counting out the top seeds yet. I expect the Spurs to play their best game of the series and for that to lead to a win and cover. 10* West Conf Opening Rnd. GOY

I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers dug deep last game and came through with a critical victory. Back home, where they’re typically much stronger, I expect them to follow it up with another very important win.

I played on the Pacers in Game 2, which was the most recent game here. Having lost the opener, they were fully focused on the task at hand. They won by 16.

Including that one-sided win, the Pacers have now taken seven of the last nine meetings with the Hawks, here at Indiana. The last five of those victories (and six of the seven overall) all came by double-digits. Indiana wins came by 16, 10, 23, 15 and 17 points.

I believe the Pacers are the superior team. They were dominant for most of the season, before going through a lull towards the end. I believe they’ve reawakened and the team that earned the #1 seed is ready to return. They’re still 36-7 here at Indiana, outscoring teams by an average of more than 10 points per game.

Paul George had this to say: "We've got to put this game and this series away.” I look for George and co. to do so in convincing fashion. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs took the Mavs’ best punch in Game 1. While they didn’t cover, they emerged victorious. I expect that close call to serve as a wake up call and feel that the Mavs aren’t likely to get another shot at an upset. 

The common logic here seems to be that if the Mavs were so close, even without a big game from Dirk. That now if Dirk plays better, they’ll win easily. That’s not necessarily the case though. Everything else is never equal - so one can’t look at it that way. 

The Spurs are 29-4 SU and 22-11 ATS the last 33 times that they played with two day’s rest in between games. They’ve dominated in the first round the past couple of seasons and I look for them to prove they’re the more complete team tonight. 10* personal favorite

10* Spurs. Analysis before 7am PST Sunday.