Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I've successfully played on the Cowboys a couple of times already, most recently last week at Denver. I've also successfully played against the Skins a couple of times, most recently choosing to go against them in their loss against the Packers. However, every team has good "play on" and "play against" times. In this case, I feel its now the Skins which are in the "play on" spot, while the opposite is true of the Cowboys.

The Skins come in with some positive momentum. They got back on track with a win at Oakland in their last game. They've also had extra rest, having received a bye last week.

Dallas, which doesn't have the luxury of coming off a bye, just went toe to toe with mighty Denver. The Cowboys left it all on the field and came up short. That figures to be a tough pill to swallow.

Obviously, any division game is a huge one for both teams, particularly one on national TV when the division is so up for grabs. This one is arguably more important for the Skins though. They've still only got one win - none in divisional play - while the Cowboys have a divisional win under their belts, one of two victories.

Griffin, who had this best game of the season in the win over the Raiders, had this to say: "The start of the season didn't go the way we wanted to, but we got the win before the bye, and that's what we've got to keep doing. We know we can still go out and win this division. We've got to take it one week at a time, and it starts with the Cowboys."

While I did back the Cowboys over the Giants, they're still only 3-10 ATS in divisional play the past couple of seasons.

While I did play against the Skins in their loss to the Eagles, they're still 10-3 ATS in divisional play the past couple of seasons.

The Cowboys are just 7-15-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons, 2-4 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range.

The Skins are 11-6 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. The beat the Cowboys in both games last season and the previous year they lost both games by a combined five points. I expect them to be at their best here. 10*

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. OK. I admit that picking Jacksonville against Denver isn't exactly "fun," nor will it make me very popular. That said, I'm not looking for fun or to win any popularity contests. I simply feel that this line is too big - even for a game with the mighty Broncos taking on the hapless Jags.

Obviously, Denver has been MUCH better than Jacksonville. The Broncos are off a hard-fought and emotional win (Dallas) though and they've got a big Sunday night showdown at Indianapolis (Peyton's old team) on deck. I believe it will be very easy for them to go through the motions a little here.

Coach Fox noted: "One thing I've learned is if you fall asleep at the wheel, you wreck. Sometimes dealing with prosperity is more difficult than the adversity

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Foles is expected to get the start for the Eagles here. However, whether it was Vick, perhaps at less than 100%, or Foles (1-5 as a starter last season) at QB for the visitors, I like the Bucs in this matchup.

Naturally, with zero wins on the season, the Bucs aren't getting much respect. However, kets keep in mind that three of their losses came by six combined points. (They lost by 1 at NY, by 2 vs. NO and by 3 vs. Arizona.) Indeed, this team could easily have had at least one victory - and with a few breaks could have been sitting at 3-1 right now. The only time that they lost a game by more than a field goal this season was at New England. No other team has played the Saints as tough - on the scoreboard at least - as Tampa.

Speaking of close games, the Eagles beat the Bucs by two points here last season, a 23-21 win. The Bucs were laying a touchdown in that game. Now, we're getting points with them.

The Eagles offense has certainly had some impressive moments and can indeed be explosive. However, the defense has been brutal. The Eagles rank 30th in points allowed (31.8) and 31st in total defense (434.0).

I expect Tampa's run game to get back on track here. Note that Doug Martin ran for 128 and a touchdown on 28 carries when these teams met last year. Overall, the Bucs had a 136-29 edge on the ground in that one.

Philadelphia's DeSean Jackson can be a real load for teams without someone to cover him. However, the Bucs have Darrelle Revis, still considered one of the elite players in the league. Revis figures to be fired up after listening to Jackson state the following: "I don't think he can run with me. I don't think he's as fast as me

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. Many people are currently pretty down on the Yellow Jackets. They're off back-to-back losses and going on the road to face a team that pounded them last season. Meanwhile, BYU is off a big win over a good team, their second straight blowout win. That has many people jumping on the BYU bandwagon. I believe that combination of pro-BYU and anti-GT sentiment is helping to provide us with excellent value on what I expect to be a highly determined visitor.

True, the Jackets are off back-to-back losses. I played against them in the first of those losses though (vs. V-Tech) so that didn't come as a real shock to me. Last week's game was at Miami. The Jackets weren't getting as many points in that game, as they are here - yet, I feel they match up better against the Cougars than they did against the Hurricanes.

Keep in mind that G-Tech won its first three games by a combined score of 136-34.

True, BYU looked very impressive in beating Texas, back in early December. Give the Cougars props for that win. However, last week's win at Utah State needs a bit of an asterisk beside it, as the Aggies lost their star QB early on in that one. Not that BYU lost by three at Virgnia and that it was beaten by seven here by Utah.

Including the loss vs. the Utes, the Cougars are an ugly 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. During the same stretch, the Jackets were 4-2 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range.

G-Tech comes in with payback on its mind. The Cougars embarrassed the Jackets last season. Many of those same GT players are back and they haven't forgotten. I don't believe that the BYU defensive line is as good as the one that the GT offense struggled against last year - and I look for the Jackets to have considerably more success in putting pts on the board. Ultimately, I expect AT LEAST a cover. 10*

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. Northwestern checks in with a top 20 ranking. However, I feel that the unranked Badgers are laying this many points for good reason.

Give the Wildcats credit for playing a great game last week. They very nearly defeated Ohio State. They didn't though and the tough loss figures to take a toll on them here.

The Badgers are also off a tough loss vs. those same Buckeyes. However, they've had an extra week off in between games.

Note that Melvin Gordon, Jacob Pedersen and Kenzel Doe all figure to play for the Badgers, the bye allowing each some extra time to recover.

Homefield advantage has to be considered.The Badgers have beaten the Wildcats three straight times here, winning the last two here by 79 combined points. This season, they're 3-0 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by a 47.3 to 3.3 margin, out gaining them by a 583.3 to 168.3 average, in terms of total yards.

The Badgers are 8-4 ATS their last 12 as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range, going 9-3 ATS the last 12 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. That includes a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their last four in that situation. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Chargers are on a nice roll and deserve credit for beating the Cowboys. Lets not get carried away though. They're still only 2-2. Three of their four games, including both those on the road, were decided by a field goal. Yet, here they are on the road, laying more than that. I believe that's asking too much.

The Chargers are giving up 432.2 yards per game, including a whopping 481.5 on the road.

Despite facing two of the top 10 scoring teams in the league (Denver, Indianapolis) the Raiders are giving up considerably fewer yards (349) and points (22.7) than the Chargers. In their two home games, the Raiders are allowing an average of only 293.5 points and 16.5 yards.

While the Raiders offense struggled last game, they're expecting to get Pryor back here, which I feel will make a big difference. As noted, the defense has been very stingy here.

The last meeting in the series was decided by a field goal. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10*

I'm playing on DALLAS. Each week, the Peyton Manning legend seems to get bigger. However, with every new notch in Manning's belt, the pointspreads keep getting bigger. This week, playing on the road against perhaps their most talented opponent yet, the Broncos are laying more than a touchdown. As great as they've looked, I believe that's asking too much.

The Cowboys may have had some trouble on the road but they're also 2-0 at home. Denver has still only played one road game - and that was against the Giants (a team Dallas also defeated) and so there was the whole big brother vs. little brother thing going on, which sort of trumped the venue. (Also, the Giants are a mess.)

Now, the Broncos visit a Cowboy team which is outscoring opponents by a 33.5 to 19.5 margin here at Dallas.

The Broncos are obviously scoring points at a phenomenal rate. However, they're also quietly giving up quite a few. (They rank 30th in the league vs. the pass.) I have a feeling that Monte Kiffin's defense will give them some trouble and that Manning will come back down to earth a little. Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense should be able to sore some points themselves.

The Cowboys have lost twice, both times by single-digits. After their first loss, they responded with a 31-7 victory. Given the awful start by their NFC East brethren, the Cowboys could probably "afford" a loss here. However, they also know that a win really puts them in the driver's seat in the division and shows the world that they're a force to be reckoned with, a team capable of beating anyone. Some will surely call me crazy, but I'm taking the points. 10*

I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers improved last year, showing glimpses of being half decent and making strides under their first year coach. I believe his year's team has improved again and that this week's game should provide an excellent opportunity to demonstrate it.

Its no surprise that the Blazers are 1-3. Three of their four games have been on the road, two of them vs. SEC teams. They were competitive vs. Troy, their only road game vs. a non-SEC team, losing by just three points. In their lone home game, the Blazers won by 24.

I recall reading a preview of the Blazers' season, one of the many I read. The writer offered both a most optimistic and a most pessimistic scenario. The former called for eight wins and a bowl berth. The latter called for three wins, this being one of them. In other words, even if the season went terribly, this was a game that the Blazers were still expected to win. Now, that was just someone else's opinion - but the reason I even remember that, was that I felt/feel the same way. I personally had this game marked down as a "highly probable" win for UAB since the first time I went through the schedule.

While I like the job their coach is doing, the Owls simply aren't all that talented. They're also relatively young and inexperienced on the defensive and offensive lines. Additionally, they've had a very challenging schedule, as this marks their fifth road game through the first six weeks of the schedule. Throw in the fact that they're off a heart-breaker (let game get away vs. Rice) last week and I believe that they're in a very challenging spot.

While we have to go back a bit, the Blazers are 6-2-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I believe they've got a number of advantages here and I expect a win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've played on the Eagles twice so far this season, going 2-0 in those games. I had them last week when they covered vs. Florida State and I had them in their second game, when they defeated Wake Forest by two touchdowns. I believe this will be another good spot to back them.

The Eagles' last two games have been difficult ones, to say the least. They had to play on the West Coast against USC and then had to come back to face Florida State. With all due respect to the Black Knights, Army represents a significant step down in class.

While they had trouble out West, the Eagles played the Seminoles tough last week. When facing lesser opposition, they won both previous home games by double-digits.

While they weren't able to score the outright upset, the Eagles played the Noles considerably tougher than they have in recent seasons, showing vast improvement from last year. Andre Williams ran 28 times for 149 yards for the Eagles. QB Chase Rettig completed 19 of 29 passes for 197 yards and a career-high four touchdowns.

Florida State's Kenny Shaw said this of the Eagles: ''They came out firing. They came out playing better than we expected. I give them big ups for that."

Now, the Eagles get to face another team which defeated them last year. It was almost exactly a year ago to the day (10/6/12) that Army upset them by a score of 34-31. I feel that it will provide another excellent chance for the Eagles to show that they're improved - and this time, that improvement should translate to a victory.

There were a lot of low points last season. The Army game was right there with the worst of them though. It wasn't a blowout loss, as the Eagles lost by only three. However, it was their only "upset" loss and it came against a team which finished with only two total wins.. Every other loss on the season came when they were underdogs. I believe the Eagles will have payback on their minds.

Army is off an impressive win vs LA Tech at the Cotton Bowl. Listed as underdogs, the Knights won by a score of 35-16. However, before getting too carried away about that victory, keep in mind that the Knights' previous game was a 25-11 loss vs. Wake Forest - a team BC defeated. The Knights' previous road game was a 40-14 blowout loss at Ball State. They've been brutal in true road games in recent seasons.

Note that the Knights didn't play back-to-back road games last season. They did once the previous season but there was a bye in between those games. So, playing a "neutral site" game followed by a road game, is somewhat new territory for them.

The Eagles have a road game at highly ranked Clemson on deck, followed by another road game (UNC) after that. That makes taking advantage of this winnable game that much more important.

Wake Forest and Florida State already found out that BC is much improved. I say Army finds out the same thing Saturday afternoon, the revenge-minded Eagles pulling away for a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on TEXAS. I won with the Longhorns in their last game and I believe that this will be another good spot to back them.

The Longhorns entered their last game off back-to-back bad losses. Their dreams of a national title were already shot. Many were calling for Mack Brown's head, lamenting about the demise of the program. Needless to say, the win over K-State was huge.

One big win can change a lot. The Longhorns have now regained some of their swagger and confidence. They're 1-0 in Big 12 play and they know their dream of winning the conference is still alive.

Keep in mind that this is an experienced and talented Texas team, one which had really big hopes entering the season.

In addition to the "W" in the conference standings and the emotional lift, there were a lot of positives gained on the field in beating the Wildcats. The defense showed vast improvement in its second game under new coordinator Robinson. The running game really got going. Backup QB Case McCoy got more work.

When off a big win, teams often like to keep playing. However, I believe having a bye came at a good time for the Longhorns and I look for them to benefit from it. Its given them some time to get healthy, while also allowing some extra time to prepare. Note that they're 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye.

There are still a few concerns. QB Ash is still being evaluated and may not be able to go. Linebacker Jordan Hicks got hurt last game and is out for the season. Starting middle linebacker Steve Edmond is out for the first half, due to a targeting penalty.

In my opinion, the Longhorns have the talent to overcome that adversity though; I don't believe Iowa State has the type of team which can take advantage.

It seems likely that Texas won't rush Ash back. While McCoy is more 1-dimensional than Ash, he can be an effective game manager, the type of QB capable of beating the likes of Iowa State.

After the win over K-State, Brown had this to say: "There were parts of the team I expected to see and expect to see for the rest of the year. This can be a really good football team. I don't think this team will let up. We need to get healthy, but there are no excuses. Just keep your mouth shut and go play. We need to win."

Whether its Ash of McCoy, the I look for Brown's team to do just that. 10*

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I won with the Saints last week and I'm going to ride them one more time here.

In case you haven't noticed, the Saints are off to an excellent start. Last week's 31-7 win brought them to 3-0. The defense has allowed 17, 14 and 7 points, an average of 12.7 per game. Opposing teams are averaging only 295.7 yards. The offense, which has long been a strength, put up 423 yards last week.

The Dolphins are also off to an impressive 3-0 start, making for an exciting matchup. They're clearly improved but I don't think that they're ready for the hostile environment that they're going to encounter here.

I backed the Saints the year that they won the Super Bowl, winning both the side and total of the SB. I also rode them in their playoff victories and had a very good handle on them all year. That year, they were at their best in the "prime-time" games, seemingly out to show the world how good that they were.

I expect them to again come out with a chip on their shoulder, eventually earning another double-digit win. 10* main event

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I expect the Falcons to be the more "desperate" team in this matchup. They're 1-2 and chasing the Saints. They can't afford to fall to 1-3 here. On the other hand, the Patriots are 3-0. While the Dolphins have the same record, the Pats likely aren't too concerned about not making the playoffs, something that has to be priority #1 for the Falcons. While needing to win doesn't always translate to actually winning, I expect that sense of urgency to come into play on Sunday.

Before getting too excited about the Pats' 3-0 record and their strong defensive numbers, keep in mind that they've faced the Jets, Bills and Bucs. Two of those three teams have a rookie QB and the third team just benched their QB, as he had the worst numbers in the league. Needless to say, facing Matt Ryan at the Georgia Dome represents an entirely different ballgame.

As for the Falcons, their loses came against teams (NO and Miami) that currently have a perfect 6-0 combined record. They also came on the road. The Falcons won their lone home game (by 7) and are 15-4 SU here the past 2+ seasons.

While the Pats did beat the Bucs, they're still only 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS against NFC teams the past couple of years. During that span, the Falcons are 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS against AFC opponents.

While the Falcons do indeed have some injuries, the same can be said of the Pats. Of course, New England did also suffer those offseason personnel losses at the receiver position. While he's obviously still very dangerous, thus far, Brady's numbers are nothing special.

Brady got the better of Ryan when the two went head-to-head before. However, that was back in 2009 and it was at Atlanta. Ryan's got a few more years to gain experience, while by 2009 Brady was arguably past the point where the extra years could help him. Perhaps more importantly, now the rematch is at Atlanta. I say Ryan and co. get some revenge, getting themselves back into the playoff race in the process. 10* SNF Main Event

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Cardinals check in with the better record. They're 1-2 while Tampa is 0-3. Playing at home, I believe the Bucs will prove to be the better team.

You probably heard that Freeman is out as the starter for this week, replaced by rookie Mike Glennon. It remains to be seen how Glennon will fare. However, the team needed a spark and I believe that they'll rally around their new pivot. Considering that Freeman had the worse QB rating in the league to go along with the worst completion percentage, it won't take much for Glennon to be an upgrade.

I played against the Cardinals last week. They played without nose tackle Dan Williams after his father was tragically killed in a car wreck on his way to the game. Then, three of their linebackers were lost for the season after suffering injuries. Sam Acho broke his leg, Lorenzo Alexander has a foot injury and rookie Alex Okafor suffered a torn biceps.
Additionally, safety Rashad Johnson lost the tip of his left middle finger and missed the second half before. While he may play this week, the team was already weak on defense to begin with.

True, Arizona did beat Detroit. That was at home though. The Cards are 0-2 on the road, including a loss at St. Louis. While the Cards lost 31-7 against the Saints, Tampa nearly beat New Orleans - losing 16-14. The Cards are now 3-15 SU away from home the past 2+ seasons.

The Arizona offense has been nothing special either. Palmer initially looked good in this offense However, he's since struggled and his numbers rank near the bottom of the pack. (72.3 passer rating is 26th in the NFL.)

Despite facing the Saints and Pats in two of their three games, the Bucs are still only allowing an average of 19 points per game, much better than the 26.3 (29 on the road) that the Cards are allowing. I expect them to take advantage of this winnable game Sunday, covering the small number along the way. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Things change in a hurry in the NFL. Public perception changes about as quickly as anything. If we were at this point of last season, the Seahawks sure wouldn't be favored here at Houston. But with the Hawks off back to back blowout wins and the Texans off a blowout loss, that's where we stand. I believe its providing us with excellent value with the home team.

The Seahawks are certainly a good team and the 29-3 dismantling of the 49'ers was indeed impressive. However, lets keep in mind that they've played two of three games at home and that their other two games came vs. Carolina and Jacksonville.

The Texans may be 0-3 ATS but they're still 2-1 SU. Their lone loss came on the road vs. the defending Super Bowl champs. This team is 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS here the past 2+ seasons.

The Texans are also a profitable 8-1-1 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they played a game where the line ranged from the -3 to +3.

While the Texans played a bad game last week, I still believe they're a good team. I'll take whatever points are being offered but I expect them to rise the occasion with the outright win. 10* best bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Bears are 3-0. The Lions are 2-1. The Bears were 2-0 in the series last season and have won nine of the last 10 meetings. Yet, its the Lions who are listed as small favorites. That will have many tempted to take the points. I believe the Lions are favored for good reason though.

The nationally televised blowout of Pittsburgh is fresh in people's memories. Keep in mind that the Bears barely eked out wins in each of their first two games, a 3-point win vs. Cincinnati and a 1-point win vs. Minnesota. (The Lions beat the Vikings by 10.)

While the Bears' defense has been scoring points, they've also been giving up some. They're tied for 19th in scoring defense at 24.7 points per game and rank 25th in yards allowed at 383. Note that Chicago starting defensive tackle Henry Melton will undergo season-ending knee surgery. Also, note that Tillman, who normally covers Calvin Johnson, is questionable.

For all their trouble over the years, the Lions are actually a profitable 18-13-1 (21-11 SU) the last 32 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points, 1-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons. They know they desperately need to find a way to beat this team and I look for them to finally step up and get it done. 8*

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Its true that the Aggies were very good on the road last year. However, this is a new year and this is their first road game of the season. I expect them to have their hands full.

The Razorbacks haven't forgotten that the Aggies embarrassed them 58-10 last year. I expect them to show up an extremely motivated team.

True the Razorbacks remain young at a few key positions. They aren't without talent though. They've also got a much better coach this year though and the secondary is more experienced - they should be able to deal with Manziel somewhat more effectively.

Of course, stopping Manziel completely is no easy task. The best way to limit him is to keep him on the sidelines. That goes hand-in-hand with the ball control type of offense that Bielema wants from Arkansas.

Not only does Bielema's crew want to dominate time of possession, they'll be up against an Aggie run defense that should allow them to do just that. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that the Aggies are giving up 218 rushing yards per game, good for 106th in the country. Opposing backs are averaging 5.9 yards per run against them. Even Rice ran for more than 300 yards against them.

Although they ran for only 101 yards last week, the Razorbacks ran for 292, 333 and 258 yards in their first three games.

While the Aggies are off a big win, note that they had more than 100 yards of penalties and missed three extra point attempts. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 10*

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs have played a brutal schedule. Prior to last week's easy game (45-21 win vs. North Texas) they had to take on South Carolina and Clemson. Those teams were ranked #8 and #6 when they faced them. Now, they take on #6 LSU. That makes them only the third team in the BCS era to face three top 10 opponents in their first four games. While beating LSU is almost never easy, I believe the Bulldogs will be up for the task.

The Bulldogs know that if they can win this one, that they're right back in the hunt for a trip to the National Championship game. I believe that the two early challenges will serve them well here.

LSU has cruised through the first four games, going 4-0 SU. This year's team suffered heavy personnel losses though. The Tigers had a school-record eight defensive players drafted and they'll have four new starters on the defensive line. At the beginning of the season, defensive coordinator John Chavis noted: ''Obviously, the number of guys that we lost last year isn't usual."

The Tigers, who have failed to cover their last two, now take a serious step up in class. I expect some of last season's personnel losses to finally catch up with them.

The Bulldogs haven't forgotten about a 42-10 beating the Tigers gave them back in December of 2011, at the SEC Title game. I say its payback time on Saturday afternoon. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I successfully backed the Eagles when they beat Wake Forest. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so.

Needless to say, the Seminoles are much tougher than the Demon Deacons. Still, they're also laying more than three touchdowns. I believe that's asking too much of them.

True, the Eagles got blown out (35-7) in their last game. However, that was at USC and they've since had a bye week to recover. Note that they're getting considerably more points this week than they were against the Trojans, despite now playing at home. They're 2-0 SU here on the season, both wins by double-digits.

While they did cover (vs. Bethune Cookman) last week, the Seminoles are still only 5-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, after winning two or more consecutive games.

While it may not necessarily give them the best chance at the outright win, I believe BC's conservative mindset lends itself well to keeping this one close.

Coach Steve Addazio noted: "We have to play great defense, get field position and run the ball well."

With their perfect record, with big games vs. Maryland and Clemson on deck and having embarrassed the Eagles each of the past couple of seasons, I believe that it will be easy for the 'Noles to go through the motions a bit here. On the other hand, I expect the Eagles to be absolutely focused on the task at hand and for that to lead to at least a cover. 10*

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. I won with the Yellow Jackets last week. This week, however, I feel that the value lies the other way.

The Hokies haven't been very good at the betting window the last couple of seasons and they're already off to a slow start in that area this year. That has many bettors hesitant to back them. This, in turn, has helped to create solid line value.

The Hokies may be 0-2-2 ATS. However, keep in mind that they're also 3-1 SU and 3-0 SU their last three games. Their only loss all season came against Alabama. They haven't been dominant but they've found a way to win.

True, facing the Yellow Jackets' unique offense on short rest and off a triple OT game isn't probably ideal. However, to compensate the Hokies spent their past several Sunday practices on G-Tech preparation.

Virginia Tech senior defensive tackle Derrick Hopkins said this of adjusting to G-Tech's offense: "It's not a tough adjustment. Most guys have been preparing for it a long time, so it's just like second nature kind of. We know what to expect."
Note that VT scout team quarterback T.J. Shaw has played the role of the Yellow Jackets' quarterbacks for four consecutive years on Georgia Tech game week.
While the Hokies have had some kicking issues the past couple of games, they'll get senior kicker Cody Journell back from suspension. Prior to an off game vs. ECU, Journell had made 36 of 44 career fg's.

Note that the last time that V-Tech played a Thursday game on short rest was way back in 2006, when the Hokies upset #10 Clemson.

Last year's game was decided by three points, a 20-17 win for the Hokies. The 2011 meeting here saw the Hokies win by 11.

Beamer has said repeatedly he wants his Hokies to "be good" by the start of ACC play. I believe they've got a real shot at the upset here and expect them to be "good enough" to earn at least a cover. 10*

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Bears beat the Bengals. And, the Bengals beat the Steelers. So, the Bears must be able to beat the Steelers, right? That's the type of logic a lot of recreational bettors apply. Sounds reasonable enough in theory. However, in reality, it rarely holds much weight. There are always many other factors to consider. For example, the Bears hosted the Bengals while the Steelers had to play at Cincinnati.

In addition to playing at home, the Steelers figure to be the more desperate team. The NFL is so competitive that coming back from 0-2 to make the playoffs is extremely difficult. Coming back from 0-3 is practically impossible.

On the other hand, while a Monday night game is always a big deal, the 2-0 Bears could potentially be a little more complacent.

The Bears are 3-8-3 ATS the last 14 times that they were road favorites of three or fewer points, going 0-2 ATS their last two in that role During that time, the Steelers were 1-0-1 ATS as home underdogs of three or less. With their season on the line, I expect Big Ben and co. to dig deep and to deliver their best effort. 10* main event

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Rams have been forced to rally from behind in each of their first two games. They battled back for a win against Arizona in Week 1 but were unable to dig out from a bigger hole at Atlanta last week. They did fight hard though, making a game of it, despite the early deficit. Taking on a team with a few issues of its own. I expect their best effort.

The Cowboys want to be able to run the ball, but have been unable to do so. They're off a tough 1-point loss and have some key players nursing bumps and bruises.

While the Rams have a slight edge in total yards in their two games, note that Dallas has been outgained by an average margin of 395.5 to 324.5.

While I did successfully play on the Cowboys in their win over the Giants, its worth noting that they're still only 4-13 ATS here the past couple of seasons, including 2-4 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. Overall, they're just 6-14-1 ATS as favorites.

The Rams have seen both games decided by seven or less while the Cowboys have seen both theirs decided by five or less. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Not many people are giving the Browns much of a chance here. After all, they're 0-2, they're down to their backup or third-string QB and they just traded away their running back. While all that may be true, keep in mind that the Vikings are also 0-2 and that they too have QB issues.

While you'll hear much about the Browns' problems, note that Cleveland gets back top receiver Josh Gordon. Gordon, who led the team with 805 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 2012, was suspended for the first two games for violating the league's substance-abuse policy.

QB Campbell noted: "He's a huge difference. He's a big target. He's a big guy. He's a big part of what we do offensively. Not having him out there, definitely hurts a little bit, because he is a big part of what we do. So it'll be good to get him back, get him going, try to get him back into a rhythm."

Of course, Campbell isn't expected to start, that job goes to Brian Hoyer.

Cleveland coach Rob Chudzinski said this of that decision: "I feel like based on our current situation - where we're at offensively as well as getting into the game planning for Minnesota - that Brian's strengths are the best fit for this week and that he gives us our best chance to win. The things that he does well fit what we need. For me, it's about who gives us the best chance to win."

While Peterson is obviously a great running back, the Vikings remain fairly one dimensional on offense. Worse, the defense is allowing an average of 32.5 points and 440 yards per game. (Cleveland is allowing 18.5 ppg and 285.5 ypg.)

The Vikings, who are off a 1-point loss last time out, are very capable of covering when getting points. However, their tendency to play close games makes covering difficult when they're the ones laying points. In fact, they're only 3-8-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 9*

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I successfully played against the Saints last week. They were on the road, off an emotional divisional win and facing what I felt was going to be a very determined divisional rival. Things set up much differently here.

This time, the Saints are at home. This time, they're facing a defensively challenged opponent from outside their division.

Give the Cardinals credit. They're 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. They've scored points in both games and the offense does appear to be considerably improved. Note that Larry Fitzgerald is banged-up. While the Cards are hopeful he can play, if he does, he may be at less than 100%.

Still, the Arizona offense isn't as good as the one they'll be up against here.

Neither is the defense. While its obviously a small sample size, the Cards are allowing an average of 24 points and 344 yards. On the road, those numbers are 27/366.

The Saints, on the other hand, are allowing just 15.5 points per game, on only 320 yards.

While the Saints' offense has yet to really get rolling, Brees has to be licking his chops. Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford combined to complete 68.9 percent of their passes for 577 yards and four touchdowns against the Cards, who have only one interception and one sack.

The Saints are 12-5 ATS their last 17 as favorites in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. I expect a breakout game from the offense, en route to a big win. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Longhorns have dropped two in a row, getting beaten up in the process. Fans are jumping off the bandwagon and/or calling for Mack Brown's head. Those results and that sentiment have kept the line below a touchdown here. I believe that's offering plenty of value with what I expect to be a very dangerous team.

The Longhorns are still very talented and they still believe. Remember, this team returned 19 starters from a team that won nine last year. Sunday, the day after the loss to Ole Miss, a group of seniors addressed the team, saying how much they still wanted to leave with the conference title.

True, K-State has had the Longhorns' number in recent seasons. The Wildcats didn't do themselves any favors, in my opinion, when Tre Walker stated that Texas lays down when times get tough.

Texas safety Adrian Phillips had this to say about that: "Its basically a slap in the face. You don

I'm playing on UL LAFAYATTE. I like how this one sets up for the road team. The Ragin' Cajuns had some experience against good teams, losing at Arkansas and Kansas State. Then, stepping down significantly in class, they crushed Nicholls 70-7. They set numerous school offensive records in that game and come in on a high, with positive momentum.

That's not the case for the Zips. Akron played a great game last week, very nearly upsetting Michigan. To some so close to pulling off the miracle, only to lose, can be tough. An emotional letdown wouldn't surprise.

Akron isn't good enough to not bring its "emotional A Game." Not against a team which just put 70 points on the board, one which has the best offense in its conference and in its school's history.

Keep in mind that the Zips lost by 31 in their opener and then barely beat James Madison in their second game, winning by only two and giving up 498 total yards. With that ATS loss, they're 4-9 ATS at home the past couple of seasons. That includes a 1-2 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

The Cajuns couldn't pull off the upset in either of their first two road games but this is still a team with very big expectations and plans for the year. None of those plays include a loss here. I expect a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The poor Volunteers. Last week, they had to contend with Oregon. (They were blown out 59-14.) This week, they take on a hungry Florida Gators team, one which almost always gives them trouble.

The Gators are 8-0 their last eight against the Vols. Throw in the fact that the Vols are 1-23 their last 24 games (0-17 L17) against Top 25 teams and one can imagine that even Tennessee fans might be a little nervous.

While the line might seem a little high, keep in mind that the last six games in this series have all been decided by double-digits and by an average of 19. Note that the Vols are 2-10 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons.

While Tennessee was getting destroyed by Oregon, Florida was resting with a bye week. That gave QB Driskel an extra week to heal. He's expected to be fine. On the other hand, the Vols are unsure who even will play QB for them.

I expect another blowout win for the Gators. 10* SEC GOM

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have owned the Tar Heels in recent years. I don't see that changing this season. The Jackets have destroyed a pair of lesser teams and come in loaded with confidence. They followed up a 70-0 win over Elon with a 38-14 road win at Duke. They ran for 368 yards and 344 yards.

Last season, the Jackets won 68-50 at UNC. This one likely won't be as high-scoring as that one. (Although you never know.) However, with an O/U line of 60 and a pair of capable, albeit different, offenses - we will see some points.

UNC lost by 17 at South Carolina and then responded with a 20 point win at Middle Tennessee State. The Tar Heels allowed the Gamecocks to gain 228 yards on the ground and then Middle State ran for 158 (401 overall) yards against them. I see them having real trouble stopping the G-Tech attack, one which ran for 380 yards against them last season.

This year's Tech offense is arguably even more dangerous - or at least more difficult to prepare for. In the game against Duke, the Jackets broke out some new formations and were throwing for TDs.

UNC's Tim Jackson said this of Paul Johnson and G-Tech throwing the ball: "I feel like they did it just because they could, honestly. Another wrinkle for you to prepare for. I'm not sure if they're even going to run that against us, but it just gives you another reason to prepare for them, another 30 minutes that you have to spend watching film on their formations. Let's throw four times and make them prepare for the pass when we're really going to run the ball,"' he added, saying of Johnson: "Dude's smart. He knows what he's doing."

While they had a bye last week, the Tar Heels are 0-2 SU/ATS off a bye the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, they're 1-5 ATS as underdogs, 0-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They'd dearly love to avenge last year's loss, I just don't feel they'll be up to the task.

The Jackets are 8-2 ATS the past couple of years in September. During that stretch, they're 4-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range and 1-0 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I feel they'll score enough for the win and cover. 9* breakfast club

I'm playing on FRESNO STATE. Many aren't accustomed to seeing Boise State listed as an underdog, particularly against a team they have dominated, like Fresno State. Not surprisingly, the line dropped from its opener. I believe the Bulldogs are favored for good reason though and I feel this game provides an excellent opportunity for them to get some payback against a team which embarrassed them (57-7) here two seasons ago.

This is a huge game for Fresno State. The fact that last week's game got cancelled figures to be a positive. No injuries and more time to game plan specifically for the Broncos.

Note that DeRuyter wasn't around when the Bulldogs got killed here two years ago. That's noteworthy as they're 8-0 at home since he took over. With the exception of the 1-point win over Rutgers in Week 1, every victory came by double-digits.

The Bulldogs recently cracked the Top 25 and now I look for them to prove that they're worthy of that ranking. *9 Main Event

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Reid returns to Philadelphia, bringing his new 2-0 team with him. Needless to say, emotions will be high, as are the stakes. Reid will want to win his old team. The Eagles will want to beat their old coach. The Chiefs want to stay perfect. The Eagles want to climb back above .500. Both teams and QBs feel they have something to prove, a nationally televised Thursday game provides the perfect opportunity.

While the Chiefs may have the better record, keep in mind that one of their wins came vs. Jacksonville. The other was at home, by only a single point. Obviously, this will be a much tougher venue.

While the actual distance the Chiefs travel isn't that great, I still feel that the short week favors the home team.

The Eagles' offense has yet to be stopped. Rivers and co. were able to keep up. I don't expect the Chiefs to be so fortunate. 9* thurs main event

Long known for his "Big Game Prowess," Ben Burns is already off to a PERFECT 6-0 start to the season w/ his NFL primetime (Sunday Night, Monday Night, Thursday Night) plays. His latest is another ABSOLUTE BEAST. You know what to do!

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Admittedly, the Steelers didn't look too good in Week 1. They're also off a down year and a winless preseason. Meanwhile, the Bengals looked better in losing their opener. That combination of events has caused many bettors to steer clear of the Steelers this week. In my opinion, that's created excellent value with what I still believe is a dangerous Pittsburgh team.

While Rothlisberger no longer has all previous weapons at his disposal, I still consider him to be a very talented QB - one who works with the talent around him and finds a way. While losing a center is rarely good, note that they've now had a week to adapt. While I won't count on it, its also possible that Miller could be back.

Either way, I expect this proud and well-coached team to be much better than it was in Week 1.

The Bengals saw their opening game decided by a field goal, blowing a double-digit lead in the process. Those type of losses aren't always as easy to bounce back from as people expect them to be.

Both games between these teams last season were also close. The Steelers won by seven here at Cincinnati. The Bengals won by three at Pittsburgh. With last year's victory, the Steelers are 17-5 ATS (18-4 SU) their last 22 visits here. That includes an 11-1 mark their last 12 here.

Including the losses vs the Steelers, the Bengals are just 6-9-1 ATS here the past couple of seasons. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 10* AFC North GOM

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Saints are off a win and cover. The Bucs are are off a tough 1-point loss at New York. This week, the Bucs are playing at home though, while also getting points. I believe that's offering excellent value.

While Brees is indeed one of the elite QBs in the league, the Bucs now have one of the league's elite cornerbacks, in Revis.

As Brees noted: "Obviously, Revis and his reputation - he's one of the best corners in the league, and you've got two young corners on the other side too that play very well. So, all in all, it's an extremely solid secondary and one that you've got to be able to prepare for."

Meanwhile, the Saints had trouble running the ball last week and also had trouble stopping the run. Note that the Saints allowed a league-worst 6.3 yards per carry in Week 1 after they ranked last in that category last season at 5.2.

The Bucs have played the Saints trough here the last couple of seasons here. They lost 35-28 in last year's meeting here. However, they had an edge in first downs, time of possession, rushing yards and passing yards. The previous season, the Bucs won 26-20 here. I believe the Bucs will be ready and I won't be surprised by another upset Sunday afternoon. 10* best bet

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Both teams lost last week. I expect the Packers to be the team which bounces back with a victory.

The Washington defense was not good last year. Getting lit up by the Eagles in Week 1 doesn't bode well for them vs. Rodgers and co. Even against the 49'ers defense, considered among the best, the Pack still threw for 322 yards, scoring 28 points.

McCarthy and the Packers coaching staff saw Washington struggle against the quick hurry-up attack that the Eagles employed. They should devise a gameplan to exploit the vulnerability.

Just as the defense struggled, the Redskins defense wasn't too good either. The Washington ground game didn't look good at all. Meanwhile, while Griffin did throw for more than 300 yards, he also got picked off twice while fumbling.

The Packers have won 20 of their last 21 regular-season games at Lambeau Field. I believe that they're the superior team and I expect a win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I successfully backed both these teams on Monday night. While both covered the spread, both had different SU outcomes. The Eagles jumped all over the Redskins early and hung on for a 33-27 win. The Chargers also jumped off to a significant lead. However, they couldn't hang on, eventually losing 31-28 vs. Houston. I believe those results favor the Eagles, even more so with both teams playing on a short week.

The Chargers left it all out on the field on Monday. To give that kind of effort - only to lose in heart-breaking fashion - is tough. Off that kind of loss, having to fly across the country to play an early game, on a short week - is even tougher.

The Chargers will have to deal with a new look Eagles attack that appeared unstoppable for much of the opener. As noted prior to the Washington game, I like Kelly and I like Vick in this offense.

While the Eagles are also playing on a short week, they're also riding an emotional high. This is a team and city which feels that its back. That emotion and positive momentum figures to compensate for the short work week. Also, unlike the Chargers, the Eagles didn't have to fly across the country to get here.

While the Chargers can be tough against their own conference, they were 0-8 ATS (1-7 SU) against NFC teams the past couple of seasons. They'll likely get a non-conf. cover at some point this season, I just don' think it'll be this week. 10*

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Badgers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Sun Devils are favored for good reason.
The Badgers have indeed looked dominant. However, their opposition has been extremely weak. Now, they'll be playing in the heat of the desert against a far more dangerous opponent. Of course, the same can be said for Arizona State.
I believe that the venue is going to play an important factor in the outcome. Note that the Badgers are only 3-6 ATS (4-5 SU) on the road the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're also 1-3 SU/ATS vs. Pac-12 teams and 0-2 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range.
While the prime-time start might allow the temperature to drop a bit (The National Weather Service forecast is calling for a daytime high of 103 degrees and a low of 82.) I believe it favors the home team. Keep in mind that the East Coast based Badgers have played at 12 ET in both previous games.
Arizona State fans will reportedly be dressed in black - for a "blackout" and will be fired up, ready to support their team. I expect the Sun Devils, 10-2 ATS their last 12 against Big-10 teams, to ride the wave of emotion, en route to a big win. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I've won with both these teams already this season. In Week 1, I backed the Huskies when they hammered Boise State. Last week, I backed the Illini. Listed as underdogs vs. Cincinnati, they won by a score of 45-17, racking up better than 500 yards of offense. While that did get people noticing the Illini a little, I believe that they're still flying under the radar.

As Illinois linebacker Jonathan Brown noted: "No one really gives us a chance, which is nothing new here. It's been that way almost all of my four years here and it's something we work hard every day to try and change."

Needless to say, this is a very big game for the Illini. A chance to beat a nationally ranked team, while also a chance to play at Soldier's Field for the first time in nearly two decades.

Beating the Huskies won't be easy, as they are indeed a talented club. Still, I really like the new Illini offense.

Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase has thrived under offensive coordinator Bill Cubit. He's already got six TD passes and is averaging 9.97 yards on every attempt. You may recall Cubit was the head coach at Western Michigan, where his teams regularly featured non-huddle spread looks.

Cubit said this of his QB: "He's so intelligent. For me, it's just a pleasure to watch him go out there and have fun. For a guy who's been a little bit maligned around here, you know, right now I think he's leading the Big Ten in passing."

I expect the Illini offense to again have success, enough to AT LEAST lead to a cover. 10* best bet

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I won with the Cardinals when these instate rivals faced each other. At the time, people didn't know quite how good Louisville is and they also didn't know quite how bad Kentucky was. The Cards easily covered. Things set up somewhat differently this year.

The Cards are again a very good team. This time, however, everyone knows it. Meanwhile, thanks to last year's record, everyone still thinks of Kentucky as a very bad team. However, I think this team is considerably better than the one which took the field last season.

I backed the Cats last week and they destroyed Miami Ohio by a a 41-7 margin. The score easily could have been even more lopsided given the 675-122 edge in total yards.

Obviously, the Cards are vastly superior than the RedHawks. However, that big win over Miami Ohio should give Kentucky the confidence it can play with Louisville, giving the Cats some much needed swagger.

Looking back to last year and we find that Louisville was laying two touchdowns at home. This season, the line has climbed even higher than that, despite the fact that Kentucky is now playing at home and appears to be improved from last year. I feel that's providing us with excellent value and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 9*

I'm playing on TCU. While I often find myself on a home underdog on Thursday nights, I like the road team in this one.

With Pachall out, Boykin gets the call for the Frogs. Admittedly, he doesn't have a great record as a starter. However, he got plenty of experience last year - and he was 9 of 13 for 133 yards and two TDs after coming on last week. Note that he can also make more plays with his legs than Pachall.

Note that Boykin threw for a career high 332 yards and four TDs when these teams faced each other last season, the first time they did so as Big 12 foes.
While the Frogs have faced LSU, the Red Raiders have played lesser opposition. I expect that game vs. quality opposition to serve the Frogs well here.

Remembers, Tech QB Mayfield is a freshman walk-on and he'll be facing a TCU defense which was best in the Big 12 last year and which returned nine starters from that unit.

Texas Tech QB Kingsbury had this to say: "I

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Texans are a talented team and they're off a very strong (regular) season. Expectations are high once again. That's not the case in San Diego. The Chargers are off a bad year and even San Diego fans aren't sure what to make of their team's chances. I believe that sentiment has created excellent value with what I believe will be an extremely motivated and dangerous home underdog.

I like the coaching changes in San Diego and believe that the new emphasis on short and intermediate routes will benefit Rivers.

While the Texans were indeed a tough defense last year, they did show vulnerabilities against the pass at times. While Ed Reed has been signed to help address that flaw, he may not be able to go here - and if he does, he may not be 100%,

The Texans, who also have a banged-up Arian Foster, are 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU) their last two Monday games, 1-5 ATS their last six. I believe all the talk about what a great season they're going to have may have them believing that they're a little better than they really are.

The Chargers have had remarkable success vs. the AFS South, going 20-3 ATS their last 23 vs. that division. That includes a perfect 8-0 ATS mark since 2009, one of them an upset win at Houston in 2010. Rivers had four TDs and 295 yards in that game. While he may not match those stats tonight, I do expect Rivers to have a solid game, en route to leading his team to AT LEAST a cover. 10*

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Skins had their way with the Eagles last season. However, that was with Foles at QB and with Reid as the head coach. Things are different in Philly now and I look for a much different team and result on the field this evening.

I like the coaching change that the Eagles made. Reid did a lot of good things, but his time here was clearly done. Kelly is a winner and he's brought a winning mentality with him.

Obviously, Griffin has some special talents and he had a great season last year. Keep in mind that he'll be taking his first snap in an NFL game since reconstructive surgery and since re-hurting his right knee in the playoff loss vs. Seattle.

While he's considerably older, keep in mind that Vick has a lot of the same skills that Griffin does. With a renewed emphasis on the ground game, Vick will finally be encouraged to utilize his running skills.

Vick was quoted saying: "I'm going to have the opportunity to do what I want to do in this offense and run the football. And yes, I will be a threat. I think you've got to take on a certain mindset that you're going to play the game all-out."

Vick's "all out" mentality might make it difficult to last the entire season - but it should make him extremely dangerous, when healthy. Note that he was 20 of 28 for 333 yards and four touchdowns to go with 73 yards rushing.

Kelly said this of his QB: "The biggest thing with Mike that you saw was just his growth and improvement. He just kept learning the system ... His willingness to learn, his passion for the game of football was evidenced since the first day we saw him."

The Skins, who ranked just 28th defensively last season, have long been terrible in the favorite role. They're 51-81-3 ATS the last 135 times that they were laying points, including a 12-24 ATS mark when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While that's admittedly largely ancient history, they were also 0-2 ATS in that role the past couple of seasons.

Meanwhile, despite a poor record at the betting window overall, the Eagles have quietly gone a profitable 3-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

While they were beaten badly here last season, the Eagles remain a healthy 13-7-1 ATS (14-7 SU) their last 21 visits here. Vick has won his last three starts against the Skins, throwing for better than 900 yards while recording eight touchdowns. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* NFC Best Bet

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. With most expecting the 49'ers and Seahawks to again be very good, not many are expecting much from either the Rams or the Cardinals. The general feeling is that they'll be competing for third in the NFC West. While that may indeed prove to be the case, I believe that the Rams are closer to the level of SF and Seattle than they are to the Cardinals. I expect them to prove it on Sunday afternoon.

Looking back to last season and we find that the Cardinals were favored, albeit slightly, for both meetings with the Rams. However, the Rams won both of those games by double-digits, 17-3 here at St. Louis and 31-17 at Arizona.

Including that 31-17 rout, the Cards finished the season on a 1-11 streak. Meanwhile, the Rams finished the season by winning four of their last six.

As coach Fisher noted: "One would assume that we'll just continue to get better."

True, the Rams no longer have Steven Jackson. While Jackson did plenty of good things here, I'm not overly concerned with his departure. Keep in mind that he's 30 now, fairly old for a running back which has taken the kind of pounding that he has. Additionally, keep in mind that Daryl Richardson averaged 4.8 ypc for them last season.

More significant that the departure of Jackson, at least in my opinion, is adding tight end Jared Cook and offensive tackle Jake Long to the St. Louis offense.

Note that Bradford doesn't have to learn new schemes for once, as offensive coordinator Brian Schttenheimer returns.

That's not the case for the Cards, as they've got a new QB (Palmer) and a new coach.

Keep in mind that the Cards had the worst offense, in terms of yards per game, in the league last season - they were second worst in points allowed. Throw in the fact that the Rams also scored more ppg and St. Louis appears stronger on both sides of the ball. Also, Fisher and the Rams coaching staff should have an edge over the Cards. Add it all up and I expect another win and cover for St. Louis. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers won their opener. However, they didn't look very good in doing so. In fact, they allowed 602 yards against Wyoming, eventually eking out a 37-34 victory - that was the second most yards ever allowed by the Huskers, in a game that they won. While that performance may keep some off the Huskers this week, I expect it to have them in an angry mood. I expect their "anger" to spell trouble for a vastly over-matched Southern Miss. squad.

The Golden Eagles have lost 13 straight games. Favored by a touchdown in their opener, they lost 22-15 vs lowly Texas State, turning the ball over six times. The score could have been even worse too, as they managed a mere 215 total yards, while allowing 400.

Speaking of lopsided yardage stats, these teams met on the first day of Sept. last season. The Huskers won by 29, dominating on the ground and through the air. The total yards was 632-260. The Huskers balanced attack put up 354 yards through the air (26 of 34 with 5 TD passes fro Martinez) while rushing for another 278. Dominating stats indeed.

So, why do the Eagles have to play here again? Actually, the game originally was scheduled to be played in Hattiesburg, Miss. However, the financially strapped Southern Miss athletic department struck a deal to be the visiting team in exchange for$2.1 million.
While the Golden Eagles should eventually snap their losing streak, its not going to happen here - or likely for at least a few weeks. (This game is followed by road games at Arkansas and Boise State.)

Nebraska can score with the best of them - and the Huskers learned a lesson last week - don't take your foot off the gas pedal. I seem them "getting healthy" against these weak foe, winning in decisive fashion. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Both these teams won their opener. However, the Bearcats covered while the Illini did not. Laying 10.5, Cincy crushed Purdue by a score of 42-7. On the other hand, Illinois won by a 42-34 margin over Southern Illinois, a game they were laying 16.5 for. Those results - the fact that the Bearcats were more "impressive" have worked in our favor, in my opinion. That's helped in allowing us to get more than a touchdown with the Illinois.

While the Illini defense did surrender a few more yards through the air than they wanted, they were very stingy against the Salukis' run game. They allowed just 66 yards on the ground, on 26 carries. That should serve them well against a Cincy team which ran the ball almost twice as much (47 carries vs. 25 pass attempts) as it threw the ball last week.

The Illini were also excellent on the other side of the ball, as senior QB Nathan Scheelhase threw for a career high 416 yards. Needless to say, he's happy with new offensive coordinator Bill Cubit.

The Bearcats are only 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Northwestern is coming off a dream season, one which resulted in its first bowl win in 64 years. Facing a California team which struggled last year, many will expect a blowout.

I like the changes here at Cal though starting with Dykes at head coach. Tedford hasn't been getting it done in recent years while Dykes led an LA Tech team which averaged better than 50 points a game last season.

While the Wildcats have managed some opening wins on the road, they're a long way from home here. They're no longer the underdog and no longer will be surprising anyone. Instead, its Cal which is in that position, hungry to make a name for itself.

As good as they've been against the number overall, the Wildcats are 0-1 ATS the only time that they were a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range the past couple of seasons.

I expect the new look Bears to be much tougher than many will be expecting, ushering in the new era by improving to 26-14 ATS the last 40 times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. 10*

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Broncos come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Huskies are favored for good reason.

You may recall these teams meeting at Vegas last December, the Broncos winning 28-26. The rematch comes in front of a fired up Pacific Northwest crowd though against a highly experienced Husky squad, determined to get some payback. I expect the change in venue to make a big difference.

While the Broncos have admittedly been tough, wherever they play, the Huskies are very hard to beat here in their home state. They're 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS here at "home" the past couple of seasons, covering five straight. Note that their home has enjoyed a $250 million dollar redecorating job. I expect them to christen it with a win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SMU. The Red Raiders have owned this series. I believe the Mustangs are in a good spot to finally deliver some payback. SMU covered its final five games here last season. June Jones has brought in old Hal Mumme to help tweak the offense; I expect the Mustangs to have success against a vulnerable Texas Tech defense, one which is again adjusting to a new scheme. Jones said this of he and Mumme's new attack: "I always kind of felt that what we did in our passing game was getting the ball down the field vertically ... and he was more horizontal. We've combined some of the approaches, and I'm going to kind of enjoy watching what happens this fall because I think we stumbled upon some pretty good concepts." While he did have a number of picks early in the season, note that SMU's senior QB Garret Gilbert was sharp down the stretch (15 TDS vs. 0 INTS in L5 starts last season) and that he'll be up against a very inexperienced TT secondary. Jones, who knows a thing or two about QBs has said this of Gilbert: "he has the skills to go to the next level." Remember, Gilbert was once considered among the top 5 high school QB prospects in the country - he's got something to prove and knows he can change his life if he can put it all together this season. Obviously, this is an excellent opportunity (ESPN) to show the world what he can do. Obviously new Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury wants to win his debut. The former TT QB has brought some excitement to the program and I hope he ultimately does well there. However, lets keep in mind that he is the youngest coach in any BCS automatic qualifying conference and that he is giving up some experience in the coaching matchup vs. Jones here. Kingsbury, who threw for 5000+ yards here in 2002, inherits a Red Raider offense that averaged 355.9 ypg last season, among the best in the country. However, Seth Doege is no longer here at QB. Meanwhile, while Michael Brewer was supposed to be the replacement, he's out with a back injury. That leaves them very inexperienced here. Admittedly, Kingsbury's crew should score some points, as defense isn't exactly SMU's forte. That said, there are some concerns. Offensive line depth is a potential issue for the Red Raiders and their inexperienced QB; note that starting offensive guard Tony Morales is expected to be out. Note that tight end Jace Amaro is suspended for the first half. (He only played seven games last season and had more than 400 receiving yards.) Ultimately, in what could be a fairly high-scoring affair, I believe the experience factor at QB will help lead the Mustangs to AT LEAST a cover. 9* main event

I'm playing BALTIMORE. I've been riding the Ravens these playoffs, backing them in their victories over the Colts, Broncos and Patriots. Once again, I believe they're offering us excellent value.

The general consensus seems to be that the 49'ers are better in all facets of the game, with the exception of kicker. At least, I sure seem to hear a lot of people making that claim.

I don't see it that way.

Let's start by looking at the quarterbacks, the most important players on the field.

While I know many/most would probably choose Kaepernick but if I had the choice to have either QB for this game, I'd personally take Flacco.

There's no denying that Kaepernick has been really good. He's deadly on the ground, can beat you with his arm and has made good decisions.

That said, since the playoffs began, I believe Flacco has been every bit as good, some could argue better. I like the fact that he's got more playoff and overall experience. I like his demeanor and believe that he's peaking at the right time.

When making my Super Bowl pick, I probably give more weight to the head coach than many other handicappers. While I lost with Belichick last year, I've successfully backed the likes of Green Bay and New Orleans in recent years in no small part because I respected McCarthy and Payton.

Both Harbaugh brothers have obviously done a great job in getting their teams this far. I consider both to be very good coaches.

However, if given the choice, I'd take the older brother, John.

I backed Baltimore when these teams met on Thanksgiving a couple of years ago. I remember Jim saying: "John's the smartest guy I know.

Growing up, as brothers would do, the two brothers competed against each other. Jim was born with the better physical gifts. However, John made up for it with smarts. Obviously any athletic advantage Jim might have, won't play a factor here. The older and typically calmer brother, I feel John has the edge.

True, the 49'ers defense had the better regular season stats. However, this Raven defense is peaking at the right time - having shut down the likes of Luck, Manning and Brady. Meanwhile, the 49er defense has shown some vulnerability in the playoffs.

I believe that the two weeks in between games may also favor a Baltimore team which was forced to play one more playoff game to get here. Aging defenders like Lewis and Reed will benefit from the rest. (I also believe the experience of those type of players will prove invaluable.) Perhaps more importantly, the Ravens will have extra time to compare for the unconventional SF offense.

Note that the Ravens are 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS the last 19 times that they played with two week's worth of rest, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their last four in that situation.

While I like the Ravens to win, in a game that could come down to the wire, getting more than a field goal, I'll happily grab the points. *10 Best of Best

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Patriots remind me a of a school yard bully, a bit like Mike Tyson in about the mid 90s. Not Tyson like he is today and not Tyson like he was before losing to Buster Douglas. Rather, the Tyson that would beat up on guys with names like Peter McNeeley. Buster Mathis Jr. and Frank Bruno.

While he was no longer invincible, the Mike Tyson was still considered to very good. He'd only lost once and many were writing that loss to Douglas in Japan off as a fluke.

Other fighters were typically still very intimidated by Tyson and he'd routinely destroy any opponent that was lacking confidence. However, when matched up against an opponent that wasn't scared of him (Holyfield) Tyson found the going far more difficult.

It seems to me that some, perhaps many, teams are intimidated by New England. Like Tyson, the Pats annihilate a lot of opponents.

While it remains to be seen if they can pull off the upset, I believe the Ravens will have the type of mentality that Holyfield had in the Tyson fights. I don't believe that they're intimidated. They believe that they're on a mission and they're confident that they can beat this team. After the fashion in which they won at Denver - a game nobody was giving them a chance for - they truly believe that anything is possible, many believing fate is on their side.

I feel that type of confidence will serve them well here.

Lets not forget that the weather figures to be fairly nasty and Brady won't have Gronkowski to throw to.

These teams met at Baltimore in September. The Ravens won 31-30. They also faced each other here in last year's playoffs. New England won by a field goal, 23-20. That was also the exact same score in the previous game here, a 23-20 win by the Pats in Oct. 2010.

I'm expecting another close one, with the Ravens refusing to be intimidated and am grabbing all those generous points. *10 annihilator

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Last week, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were the talk of the town. This week, its Colin Kaepernick and the 49'ers who are all the rage. I feel that they're over-valued.

While they've had an extra day in between games, the 49'ers are still a West Coast team playing on the East Coast. While he may indeed be pretty "special," Kaeparnick is still a rookie making his first playoff road start.

While they are obviously a very talented team, I've found that every time that the 49'ers start winning a couple in a row, everyone wants to start handing them the Super Bowl. More often than not, that's when they've stumbled. (They were just 2-5 ATS and 2-4-1 SU after two straight wins.)

Many aren't giving the Falcons any credit for last week's win. They only see a team which nearly blew it and can't get over Atlanta's past postseason failures. I see a team which jumped all over a very opponent and a team which had the poise to come back and win, when it really mattered. I also see a team which exorcised some demons by earning that elusive playoff win.

Last week, I said the Falcons were being "disrespected," as they were barely favored against Seattle. This week, they're getting more than a field goal against the 49'ers, a team which was recently destroyed (42-13) by the Seahawks. Needless to say, I feel that the #1 seed is again being dis-respected.

Seemingly tired of being "disrespected," the Falcons were 3-0 ATS as underdogs (or in pick'em games) this season. All three of those resulted in outright victories. In fact, the Falcons didn't just win, they crushed those opponents.

When getting three points at San Diego, they won 27-3. When getting three points at Philadelphia, they won 30-17. Then, when listed at pick'em here at home against the Giants, the Falcons won by a score of 34-0. That's a combined score of 91-20 in the Falcons' favor, in the three games when they weren't favored.

The Falcons are 21-5 here the past few years, including 8-1 here this season. I'll happily take the points but expect them to win outright. *10 nfc main event

I'm playing on HOUSTON. You probably remember that these teams faced each other here about a month ago. If so, you'll recall that the Pats crushed the Texans in that game. That result is one of the factors causing this line to be much higher than it was for last month's meeting. I believe it will prove to be too high.

The Texans were among the best teams in the league for much of the season. Right up until the time they played here, at least. That loss sent them into a bit of a tailspin. The Texans flipped the switch back on last week though, knocking off a tough Cincy team which was playing very well. With their "mojo" back and having earned some "relief" in bouncing back, I expect the revenge-minded Texans, who are now 5-0 ATS their last five January games, to be at their best here.

Note that Houston is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times it attempted to avenge an earlier loss, going 3-0 SU/ATS its last three in that situation.

The Texans rode Arian Foster hard in the win over the Bengals. He had 140 yards on 32 carries. While Foster deserves a lot of that credit, the Houston offensive line did an excellent job of opening holes for him, against a touch Bengals' defensive line. I believe that strong running game will serve the Texans well here.

The Pats are only 1-3 ATS their last four playoff games and they're also a somewhat surprising 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) the last four times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. When in that situation this season, they eked out a 6-point win over the Bills.

This O/U line is a bit lower than it was for last month's meeting. Therefore, its worth noting that the Pats are a poor 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Going back further finds them at just 9-23 ATS their last 32 in that situation. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. *10 AFC Best bet

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Talk about a lack of respect. The Falcons are the #1 seed in the NFC. They've got an experienced QB who practically never loses here. They're well-rested and well-coached. Yet, they're barely favored. While I'm well aware of their past postseason shortcomings, I feel that the low number is providing us with excellent value.

The Seahawks rallied for a win at Washington last week. That was against a team which also had a rookie QB though - one which wasn't close to being 100% healthy. That was also against a team which had (arguably) over-achieved just to make the playoffs. Additionally, the Hawks got to play a game in the later part of the day.

Now, however, this West-Coast based team will be contending with an early starting time, while playing its second straight road game. Now, they'll be facing a healthy QB and a team that has been fully focused on the playoffs and on improving its "legacy." I believe that the Hawks, who are much bettere defensively than the Skins (and also arguably better offensively) will prove to be a far tougher opponent.

The Falcons did lose their final game of the regular season, a 22-17 loss vs. the Bucs. They're 6-0 SU the last six times that they were off a divisional loss though and that was a meaningless game. The last time that they were really "motivated" for a game here, the Falcons destroyed the Giants by a score of 34-0. While we may not see another destruction like that one, I expect to see that type of resolve and focus from Atlanta.

While they've got a great homefield advantage, the Seahawks are still 8-17 SU their last 25 road games. During that stretch, the Falcons are 20-5 here at Atlanta. That includes a 6-3 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. That also includes a 7-1 mark here this season. They outscored teams by a 24.5 to 17 margin here.

The Falcons beat the Seahawks each of the last two seasons. While Russell Wilson wasn't on the team at the time, each of those games came at Seattle, where the Hawks are a much better team. Playing at home and playing with a chip on its collective shoulders, I expect the #1 seed to again take care of business. *10 Playoff GOY




BONUS PLAY:

I'm also playing ATLANTA on the MONEYLINE for the first half. While it may seem too obvious to mention, the Falcons have the significant advantage of playing at home. They're dominant here. The Seahawks are also excellent on their homefield. They're thousands of miles from home now though, playing an early game.


We did see the Hawks rally for a win last week. However, we also saw the Skins jump all over them right out of the gate.

The Falcons have outscored teams by a 12.9 to 9.5 margin in the first half here at home this season. They've got something to prove here and I expect them to come out strong.

While I do expect the Falcons to be leading a halftime, I am recommending the money-line rather than the short pointspread. The price is quite reasonable and it gives us a push in the event of a tie at halftime and the win if the Falcons are leading by only a single points. *8 annihilator

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Denver had a great season and comes in riding the longest winning streak in the league. Throw in the fact that they're led by Peyton Manning and we find the Broncos laying a very big number. I believe it will prove to be too big.

For starters, entering the playoffs on an extended winning streak doesn't always guarantee success in the playoffs. Just ask the teams that lost in the Wildcard Round, all four of which were on winning streaks.

The Redskins entered the playoffs off seven straight victories. The Vikings entered the playoffs off four straight wins. The Bengals entered the playoffs off three straight victories and having won seven of their previous eight games. Lastly, the Colts had won back to back games and five of their previous six. With the exception of Seattle, none of the teams that won (Houston, GB, Baltimore) entered the playoffs on a winning streak. In fact, all three of those teams had lost their regular season finale.

We can kind of throw out the Seattle/Washington game, as those teams were both "hot." But, in all three of the other games, the "hotter" team was defeated.

Note that I'm not saying that Denver's winning streak should be ignored - only that it may not be quite as important as many likely assume.

You may recall that these teams faced each other on 12/16, at Baltimore. The Broncos dominated that game by a 34-17 count. Everything that could go wrong for Baltimore did go wrong and what appeared like it was going to be a 10-7 (or 10-3) halftime score, turned into a 17-0 Bronco lead due to a "pick-6" right before halftime. I expect a MUCH better effort from the revenge-minded Ravens here.

That 12/16 defeat vs. the Broncos was one of only two games all season long which saw the Ravens lose by more than six points.

The Ravens have won five of their last eight when playing with "revenge." They've also now won five of their last seven in January. I expect them to give the Broncos all they can handle with an excellent shot at the outright win. *9 annihilator

I'm playing on ALABAMA. You guys surely already know the story behind this one. Notre Dame comes in undefeated while Alabama has a single loss. Yet, its the Tide which are laying more than a touchdown. That's going to have a lot of people tempted to take the points. I'm not one of them.

The SEC was down a little bit overall this season and I successfully played against some SEC teams (LSU, Florida) during the bowls. That said, this is still the best conference in the country and the teams at the top of the pack (Alabama, Georgia, A@M etc) are arguably better than any team in any other conference. The Tide did mix in a few weak teams - but took care of business accordingly.

The Irish did certainly beat some talented and big named teams, including Stanford. However, some of those teams (Oklahoma, USC, Michigan) weren't as dominant as they often are. Also, keep in mind that the Irish barely beat Purdue, Michigan, Stanford, BYU and Pittsburgh. All five of those victories came by a TD or less, three coming by a field goal.

Both teams can run the ball and both can play defense. However, I give the edge to Alabama in both those areas. I also give the Tide a significant advantage at the QB position. For the season, Alabama averaged 38.5 points per game. Notre Dame averaged 26.7.

While the Irish are 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games played in January, the Tide are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine January games. I believe Alabama's experience (and Saban's experience) here in the "big game" will prove helpful and I look for the Tide to ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. *10

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. I believe that the Ravens are better on both sides of the ball. While Luck has certainly done an admirable job, he's still prone to making rookie mistakes and the playoffs are new ground for him. Flacco, on the other hand, has plenty of playoff experience. While he hasn't taken the Ravens to the Super Bowl yet, he has enjoyed some playoff success.



Of course, the fact that Ray Lewis is (likely) playing his final game here is also a significant factor. Lewis is a legend here and one of the best leaders in the game. I expect the entire team to be fired up to "win this one for Ray."



While there will be a lot of emotion with it being Lewis' last game there, Flacco is the type of QB that keeps an even keel no matter what the situation. I expect him to have his team able to use the emotion to the Ravens' advantage.



Obviously the Colts badly want to win this game too. However, I don't think that they'll feel the same sense of urgency. This is a young team and they'll have plenty of opportunities to return to the playoffs. No matter what happens here, they can already hold their heads high.



Keep in mind that while they were 4-4, the Colts were outscored by an average 29.1 to 21.1 margin on the road. They eked out a win in their last road game (at KC) but were outgained by a whopping 507-288 count, in terms of total yards.



The Ravens are 5-1 SU/ATS in the Wildcard Rd of the playoffs. During that time, they're 22-11-2 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range, 4-1-1 ATS the last six.



Throw last week's loss at Cincinnati out. The real Ravens showed up the previous week, beating up on the Giants by a 33-14 margin while getting their "swagger" back in the process. I expect them to step up and get it done. *10



BONUS PLAY

I'm playing BALTIMORE on the moneyline for the first half. There's going to be a ton of emotion in Baltimore, with this likely being Ray Lewis' last game here. Flacco is the type of QB that keeps an even keel no matter what the situation. I expect him to have his team ready to use that emotion to their advantage.



The Ravens have outscored teams by a 15.1 to 10.9 margin in the first half of games here this season. The Colts, on the other hand, have been outscored by a 16 to 11.7 margin in the first half of their road games. While the price may seem a bit steep, getting a push if the game is tied and a win if the Ravens are up by 1-3 points makes this line preferable, in my opinion, to the first half ATS line. *6

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. You guys likely know the story-line here. These teams just faced each other at Minnesota last week. In an exciting game which they needed to have, the Vikings eked out a 37-34 victory.

That Week 17 loss at Minnesota was the reason that the Packers are playing here. If they'd won that game, they would have earned a bye. So, its not like the Packers weren't trying to win. Still, there's a difference between playing for a bye and playing for a playoff spot, or playing to stay alive in the playoffs.

Of course, there's also a big difference between playing in the dome at Minnesota and playing a January game at Lambeau Field.

Adrian Peterson has proven to be a very special runner and Christian Ponder has certainly had a respectable season . However, Aaron Rodgers gives the Packers a significant advantage at the most important position in the game.

If he's not the best QB in the league, Rodgers is right there near the top. He tends to carve up the Vikings too, as he's got a 132.5 passer rating his last five games against them, throwing 16 TDs to just one interception while completing 74.7% of his passes.

While Peterson has had some personal success at Lambeau, the Vikings are still 1-5 in AP's career there. Peterson has averaged better than 100 yards there, scoring five TDs. It hasn't mattered.

Green Bay has beaten the Vikings convincingly here, too. In fact, in addition to having won five of six outright, the Packers are also 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were a host in the series. The Pack beat the Vikes by a combined score of 68-21 the last two meetings here.

Rodgers said this on the difference of playing at home as compared to playing at Minnesota: "The road got a little tougher having to play on opening weekend, but we've got a home game and that's why you win the division. You get to go back home and the game will be a different type of game. They won't have the home-crowd advantage and hopefully that will make a difference.''

Including this season's result here, the Packers are 17-8 ATS (22-3 SU) at home the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Vikes are only 9-14-1 ATS (7-17 SU) away from Minnesota.

The Pack are outscoring teams by an average of 11.6 ppg here this season. They lost their first game of the season here and have since won their last seven here. They won those seven games by an average margin of 13 points.

Th Packers, who have won nine of their last 10 (7-2-1 ATS) when playing on a Saturday, are battle-tested in the playoffs and I believe that they've got a significant coaching edge. I look for them to take care of business on Saturday, earning the cover along the way. *10

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Aggies had a great year as come in as the favorite. I'm not convinced that they're the better team though.



The Aggies did win at Alabama and obviously deserve credit for that victory. They really didn't win that many other big games though. Their other SEC victories came against Arkansa, Ole Miss, Auburn, Miss State and Missouri. Those five teams went a combined 11-29 in SEC action, none finishing above .500. When matched up against other top tier SEC teams Florida and LSU, a pair of teams which both lost their bowl games, the Aggies were defeated. Arguably their hardest non-conf. game came against LA Tech and they only eked out a 2-point win in that one.



While they didn't beat Alabama the way that the Aggies did, Oklahoma did beat the likes of TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech and West Virginia. None of those were as big as the Bama win but they're all arguably at least as impressive, if not more, than any of the Aggies' other wins.



The Aggies may have a Heiman leader at QB. However, the Sooners have the career Big 12 leader in passing yards. Indeed, Jones is the first FBS quarterback ever to throw for at least 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns in four seasons.



The Sooners are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest. Having hammered the Aggies by a 41-25 margin last season and going 8-1 the last nine meetings against them, the Sooners come in full of confidence. I expect them to step up and get it done. *10

I'm playing on OREGON. Both teams would have obviously preferred to be playing each other for the national title. However, there should be no lack of motivation on either side. That means it should come down to the players and coaches. With all due respect to K-State and Bill Snyder, for my money, the Ducks have the edge in both areas.

This Oregon team has dominated every team that it has faced, with the exception of Stanford. No other team has been able to keep up with them. They scored more than 40 points in every single game besides the Stanford one, defeating every opponent by double-digits.

Those blowout victories came against other capable and/or high-scoring teams like USC, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State and Oregon State. I believe that K-State is more like those teams than it is like Stanford, the one team which gave Oregon trouble.

K-State has certainly had an impressive season. However, I don't think the Wildcats have done as much as Oregon. While the Ducks' loss was a nailbiter, the Wildcats' lone loss came in blowout fashion, as they were destroyed at Baylor. Two of their other wins came by six or fewer points. They haven't seen a team like the one that they'll face tonight.

Note that the Wildcats failed to score 30 points in three of their final seven games, four times on the season.

While the pointspread might seem a bit high, consider that every Oregon win came by double-digits. Also, note that the Ducks are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as favorites in the 3.5 to 10 range. I expect them to "do their thing" and for the Wildcats to ultimately be unable to keep up. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Some people might be surprised that Louisville is here. I'm not one of those people. I won with the Cardinals in their first game of the season, a blowout win over instate rival Kentucky. A few months later, I also won with the Cardinals in their regular season finale against Rutgers, which served as a de facto Big East championship game.



I believe that the victory over Rutgers will provide the Cardinals with some real momentum here. That was a game that they trailed and where their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) was at far less than that 100%. However, Bridgewater and co. gutted out a win. They believe in each other and believe anything is possible.



Bridgewater would come off the bench to go 20 of 28 for 263 yards in the win over Rugters - pretty impressive numbers given how banged up he was and how stingy the Rutgers defense was. He would finish the season with 3452 yards and 25 TDs, completing 69% of his passes. While he'll be up against another tough defense here, the month off figures to have helped give Bridgewater time to heal.



The Gators are indeed one of the top teams in the country. They're not necessarily a team that wins by a wide margin though and they're going to be up against a tough and determined opponent.



A look at Florida's last five games shows four wins and a loss. Two of the wins came by only a touchdown and one of those was against lowly LA-Lafayette. Another win came by 11 points - still not enough to cover this large number. The only victory that came by greater than 11 was against Jackonsville State. Laying 37.5 points, the Gators would only score 23 points. Earlier in the season, they Gators have four other wins by two touchdowns or less.



The Cardinals have coaching stability, something many teams can't say. Charlie Strong reportedly could have had the job at Tennessee but instead decided to stay at Louisville.



Speaking of Strong, he knows a thing or two about the Gators, as he ran their defense from 2003 through 2009, his fourth different stint on the Gators' staff.



I expect Strong to have his Cardinals ready to play and I look for them to improve to 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. I won with the Huskies way back on 9/1, their very first game of the season. They didn't win but they easily covered at Iowa. While the Hawkeyes didn't prove to be very good, that was still a solid effort for the Huskies, who would go on to have another excellent season. The class of the MAC, the Huskies come in confident here and with a chip on their shoulder. That helps. However, it'll only take a team so far, when matched up against a team which is also hungry and which has significantly superior talent. In this case, I feel that the Seminoles are better on both sides of the ball.

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. I successfully played "against" the Huskers in this bowl last year. Up against an SEC opponent (South Carolina) the Huskers were crushed by a score of 30-13. While the Huskers are again up against an opponent from the mighty SEC, I like how everything sets up for them and feel this is a far more favorable matchup.

True, the Huskers were hoping for more, as they could have been in the Rose Bowl. However, there's still plenty to play for. This is still a New Year's Day Bowl, the very one they got embarrassed at last year. Needless to say, they don't want that to happen again. Throw in the fact that they got blown out in that season finale and this should be a very hungry team.

Georgia, on the other hand, did not get blown out in the its last game. Its loss was even more devastating though. You likely saw it, or know about it. An all out war against Alabama; an exciting game that went back and forth.

Ultimately, the Bulldogs lost though and their run defense was exposed in the process. They were so very close to winning that game and they likely feel that they would have beaten Notre Dame, if given the chance. That makes playing in this bowl a tough pill to swallow.

Outside of the fact that I feel that the Huskers will be hungrier, I feel that they'll be able to have success on the ground (they're #8 in the country in rushing yards) and that the Bulldogs will have trouble slowing down Taylor Martinez, a style of QB they're unfamiliar with.

I expect the Bulldogs, 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest, to have another fight on their hands the entire way. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I won with South Carolina in last year's bowl, as the Gamecocks wiped the floor with Nebraska. While I certainly still respect Spurrier and co, I feel that the Gamecocks are going to have considerably more difficulty against a Big Ten team this year.

If they didnt know better, some might think that Michigan played a much easier schedule than South Carolina, based on the the Wolverines hailing from the Big Ten and the Gamecocks coming from the SEC. However, the Wolverines faced both Notre Dame and Alalbama this year, the two teams playing the national championship game. The Wolverines also faced Ohio State, the nation's other undefeated team (They lost all three but two of the losses came by a TD or less.)

Additionally, the Wolverines had games against the likes of Michigan State and Nebraska. On the other hand, South Carolina got to avoid Alabama and had a non-conference slate which included Wofford and UAB. While the win over Georgia was impressive, lets not forget that the Gamecocks were blown out by Florida and that they lost vs. LSU, a team which lost yesterday.

The bottom line is that the SEC is still probably the best overall but the conference isn't as dominant as it has been in recent years. Top tier teams from other major conferences - like Clemson yesterday - can now compete and defeat teams near the top of the SEC. Don't be surprised to see it happen again this afternoon. *9

I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Wildcats had a terrific season at the betting window. Up against an SEC team, albeit a lower tier one, I expect their run to come to a crashing halt.

Needless to say, given its drought in the bowls, Northwestern wants this one. However, wanting and doing are entirely different matters and I'm not convinced that the Bulldogs will be any less hungry.

Obviously, we can't compare schedules. The Bulldogs had to face the likes of Alabama, LSU, Texas A@M, the first of those two both coming on the road. Their "easier" conference games came against the likes of Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee , Arkansas and Ole Miss. Those teams are more along the lines of what Northwestern faced and the Bulldogs went 4-1 in those games.

The Bulldogs crushed another Big Ten team (Michigan in the Gator Bowl) in the bowls last season, winning by a score of 52-14. With that rout, they're 2-0 in the bowls under Mullen and the school remains undefeated in the bowls for the millennium. I expect Mullen to have them ready to go again here. *9

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The line has climbed from its opener. Bettors seemingly can't believe that mighty LSU is laying such a small number. I feel that there's good reason though - and the higher this number climbs the better value I feel we're getting with a very good Clemson team.

Speaking of line value, lets start by mentioning that Clemson is 4-1 ATS the last five times it was an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 range, going 26-12-1 ATS its last 39 in that role.

LSU was only 4-7 ATS as a favorite.

True, the Clemson schedule was rather soft - however, you still don't get 10 wins without being pretty good. Clemson was only an underdog once all season. That was at Florida State. The Tigers lost but covered.

While LSU has the stingier defense, Clemson is a team which scored 37 or more points 10 times. Clemson ranks near the top of the nation in scoring (42.3 points per game), total offense (518.3 yards per game) and passing yards (319.6) per game.

In terms of wanting to be here, the edge should favor Clemson. After all, LSU is a team which is used to playing for national titles and expects to play in January.

Clemson began its seen with a win here at the Georgia Dome. Don't be surprised when it finishes the same way. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TULSA. The Cyclones won the regular season meeting. That was at Iowa State though and the Golden Hurricane had an early lead.

The Golden Hurricane are obviously motivated to get some revenge, to win a bowl game and to match its single season record for wins. Off a win over Central Florida in the CUSA Championship game, its 10th victory if the season, Tulsa comes in full of confidence.

"It certainly gives you momentum. You want to go into bowl season with a win," coach Bill Blankenship said. "We're excited to be going to Memphis. That's big time."

Of course, that's easy for Blankenship to say considering that Tulsa is a dominating 15-5 SU/ATS the last 20 times that it was coming off a conference win.

While Conference USA doesn't get much respect, we've seen teams like UCF, SMU and Rice look pretty good already. Tulsa had a better record than any of those teams.

The Cyclones, who stumbled down the stretch, have the 113th-ranked pass defense in the FBS, allowing 279.7 yards per game. The run defense isn't likely to be as stout as it could be either, as Iowa State likely won't have three-time All-Big 12 linebacker and captain Jake Knott; he's still recovering from shoulder surgery.

Iowa State's only victory since October came against Kansas, the worst team in the Big 12. (Jayhawks were 0-9 in Conference play, 1-11 overall.) The last two losses came against WVU and Texas, a pair of teams which weren't exactly dominant in their recent bowl games. (Texas won but needed to rally, WVU got blown out.)

The Cyclones are 3-8 all-time in the postseason and 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games.

In terms of line value, consider that Tulsa was actually a small favorite for the earlier game at Iowa State. Now, even though that was on the road and this is at a neutral site AND even though Tulsa has played better in recent weeks, the Golden Hurricane are a slight dog. Even with the loss back in September, the Hurricane are still 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they played a game where the line ranged from the +3 to -3. I feel that they're the better team and I expect them to step up and improve on those stats this afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on DALLAS. Unlike many of the Week 17 matchups, this game means everything for both teams. Throw in the long-standing rivalry between the NFC East foes and the stadium will clearly be buzzing.



Griffin and co. have surely been a great story. However, at this stage of Griffin's career, with Griffin recently banged-up and Romo playing great, I'll still take Romo for a single winner-take all showdown. I may be proven wrong and RG3 has certainly shown to be a very talented individual but I believe that there's something to be said for experience.



Griffin will be playing his first game under the Sunday night lights. He says his knee is healthier. However, his running plays may still be a little limited. Still dangerous, obviously, but perhaps not as much as a few weeks ago.



Outside of the QBs, I believe that Romo has the better overall supporting cast. While all teams have plenty of injuries at this time of the year, the Cowboys are in better shape than they were for the earlier meeting, when the Skins upset them at Dallas.



The Skins are still only 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were favored, going an ugly 50-81-2 ATS when laying points over the long-term.



The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS on the road and 4-2 ATS as underdogs. While Griffin and co. will have many years to get more chances, Romo and co. have a limited window. I look for them to step up and get it done. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Colts are playing their starters and they have their head coach back - for the first time all season. While they appear to be serious about wanting to win, the fact is that a victory can't help their positioning. On the other hand, the Texans still could have a chance at helping themselves. I expect them to be the more motivated team.



Defensive end J.J. Watt noted: "We know what it takes," said defensive end J.J. Watt, two sacks shy of Michael Strahan's single-season record of 22 1/2. "We're going to get focused, and then we're going to come out there and earn ourselves home-field advantage."



The Colts, who are great against losing teams but only 1-2 ATS against teams with a winning record, may have eked out a win last week but they didn't exactly look dominant doing it. Indeed, they were outgained by a lopsided 507-288 margin, giving up a whopping 352 yards on the ground. I expect that to spell trouble against the Texans, who are surely licking their collective chops.



The Texans are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. They know what's at stake and I expect them to take care of business. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Lions rank near the top of the league, in the category of most disappointing season. A talented team, they lost close games in a variety of different ways. That string of close losses eventually caught up with them - fighting so hard to to come up just short, over and over again, will do that. They've been blown out each of the past two weeks. Neither of those were divisional games though. Neither had playoff implications like this one.



The Lions have had an extra day of rest and preparation time here (last game was a Saturday) and that often can be more helpful than it sounds. More importantly, they get to host the hated Bears, a team which beat them by six at Chicago back in October. Better yet, they can play a role in keeping them out of the playoffs. I don't believe that lack of motivation will be an issue. This is an opportunity to show some pride, get some revenge and to give the home fans something to take into the offseason.



As Cutler said of the Lions: "It's safe to say the Lions are disappointed in their season, so they would love nothing more than to make us disappointed for the rest of the year."



Coach Schwartz would note: "You want to end the season on a high note. Last year we were a playoff team ... It does give you a little bit of feeling going into the offseason. It's one of 16, but it is the last one that we play.

Nobody wants teams to celebrate at your own expense. I think that's important."



The Lions beat the Bears 24-13 here last season. I expect them to be at their best again this afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. While I respect the Horned Frogs, I expect them to lose this game.

The Spartans are better than their record indicates. With the exception of an early loss vs. Notre Dame, none of their other losses have come by four points. In other words, they easily could have a better record. While I'm already a believer, this game gives the Spartans an opportunity to show the rest of the world that they're better than the record suggests.

Coach Dantonio noted: "We haven't had a football game where we've lost in a big way. They've all been close. One play here, one play there, we're a different football team."

He'd go on to say this of his team's confidence level: "We want to point our compass north. I believe the glass is half full, not half empty. That's how our football team expects to play. We come ready to play every week. We'll play with confidence."

The Frogs, who lost QB Casey Pachall midseason, were last in the Big 12 with 3.9 yards per carry on the ground. I believe they're going to have a tough time moving the ball against a Michigan State defense that ranked fourth in the FBS allowing only 274.5 yards per game.

Ultimately, in a battle of two strong defenses, I feel the Spartans will find a way to score more points. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Beavers have had the better year. They've got the higher ranking and they're favored at the betting window. However, I believe that the Longhorns are still the more talented team and I expect them to come ready to play, with a chip on their shoulder.

Give the Beavers credit for a great turnaround, as they were a 3-win team just last year. Still, they only won three of their final six games, one of those wins coming against Nicholl State.

Brown has enjoyed excellent success in the Bowls over the years and tends to fare very well when given time to prepare his team. In fact, the Longhorns are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest. (They did lose at TCU with some extra time in between games but that wasn't two full weeks)

A look at those five games shows that the Longhorns won by five at Oklahoma State earlier this season. They won last season's bowl games against another Pac-12 team, knocking off Cal by a score of 21-10. Earlier in the season, they wiped out Kansas 43-0 and Iowa State by a score of 37-8. Prior to that, it was an upset win at Nebraska in the 2010 season, a 20-13 victory in a game where the Longhorns were large underdogs. Anyway, you get the point that I'm trying to make. When given time, Mack Brown really knows how to get his team ready.

The Longhorns, perhaps playing for Brown's job, are playing in their home state, a familiar environment. Brown and co. desperately need a win here, or their fans are going to become extremely "restless." I feel that the well-prepared Longhorns will have an edge in the trenches and look for them to step up and score the upset. *10

I'm playing on NAVY. I played against the Midshipmen when they failed to cover vs. Army a few weeks ago. However, I also backed the Midshipmen when they won outright vs. Air Force and I still respect them as a team. I feel that they're offering excellent value here.



The Midshipmen are getting a lot of points here and they've performed well in the underdog role for many years. They're 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were underdogs, winning all three outright. They're 9-6 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons and 13-7 ATS the last 20. Going back still further finds them at 81-50-1 ATS as underdogs the past 132.



The Sun Devils are off a win at Arizona, their second straight victory. That was fairly impressive - although it should be noted that it came by only a touchdown. However, those instate rivalry games are a little different, in that there are different emotions in play.



The Sun Devils' previous win did come in "blowout fashion." However, that was against a Washington State team which lost by double-digits six times this season. Prior to those two victories, Arizona State had been on an 0-4 SU/ATS streak.



Navy really isn't getting much respect. However, I agree with ASU coach Graham when he said this of the Midshipmen: "I can tell you they'll be a formidable opponent. They're very different, very difficult, very well-coached, very disciplined ... "



The Midshipmen, who have faced the likes of #1 Notre Dame, won't be intimidated. They've won seven of their last eight and the eight of their last 10. Both losses came by 12 or less. I'll gladly grab all those points. *9

I'm playing on SYRACUSE. With a big name QB, an early front-runner for the Heisman, the Mountaineers are favored and are likely going to be a popular pick. The Orange know all about Geno Smith though and come in full of confidence. I feel that they're providing us with very fair value.



Formerly members of the same conference, these teams are very familiar with each other. While the Moutaineers had their way with the Orange early in this millennium, its been Syracuse which has had the edge in the "Smith era."

Syracuse beat WVU 19-14 in 2010 and 49-23 last year. The Orange picked off Smith five times in those games, sacking him nine times. He had just three TDs.



While he's not nearly as well known, the Orange have a very capable QB of their own. Ryan Nassib, a senior, threw for more than 3600 yards this season, setting a school record. He'll be facing a WVU defense that gave up more than 38 ppg.



The Orange averaged 473 yards, nearly as many as WVU's 518. Their 458 on the road was roughly the same as WVU's 478 on the road. Yet, on the other side of the ball, the Syracuse advantage is considerably more significant. Syracuse allows 385 ypg compared to WVU's 470. The Orange allow 25.7 ppg compared to the Mountaineers' 38.1.



Syracuse coach Doug Marrone is from the Bronx. Playing at Yankee Stadium, I expect him to have his team ready to play. *9

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. I played against Rutgers in the loss vs. Louisville, which was the Knights most recent game. I also played against the Knights in their previous game, a 27-6 loss vs. Pittsburgh. Many were surprised by those losses, as the Knights were 9-1 prior to that. Obviously, I wasn't. I'm still not completely sold on this team and think they'll be in over their heads against what I expect to be a very determined Virginia Tech team.

Yes, its been a down stretch for the Hokies. They're still a very talented team and proud though. One which has seen its reputation take a bit of a hit recently and which will be looking to get some of it back here with a big win.

Rutgers has a good defense. However, I believe that its not a great defense - not as good as the numbers suggest, at least. Playing a soft schedule (Howard, Tulane etc) has helped. Keep in mind that the Knights allowed 20 or more points in all three losses.

The Knights struggle on offense and thats where I expect the Hokies to have an edge.

Rutgers averages 22.4 ppg and 341 ypg. Playing arguably a much tougher schedule, V-Tech averaged 26.1 and 391.8.

Lets not forget that the Knights had dreams of a much bigger bowl, only a few weeks ago. They'll say all the right things. However, I believe that there's the real potential for a bit of a letdown here. Not so with the Hokies, who I expect to rise to the occasion with a big win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OHIO. After winning seven straight to begin the season, the Bobcats initially had dreams of a bigger bowl. That can sometimes lead to a team going through the motions a bit and not really wanting to be in the "lesser" bowl that the it ends up in. However, I don't expect that to be the case here.

The Bobcats lost four of their last five games. That gives them something to prove. They want to show the world that they're not the fraud that many say they are.

I also believe that the Warhawks will be very motivated, as they're playing in their first bowl game, since joining the FBS. I'll call it a wash in the motivation department.

While the Warhawks did earn an impressive win vs. Arkansas, the Razorbacks weren't as good as they often are. Likewise, playing Auburn tough wasn't as impressive as it would be in a normal year, when the Tigers were stronger. Playing Baylor tough was pretty good - however, that came before the Bears had really got going. While its debatable, I'd argue that Ohio's road at Penn State was every bit as impressive, if not more, than anything LA-Monroe has accomplished.

Either way, I do believe that the Bobcats will have some edges on the field and feel this game will likely be closely contested.

Ohio's Tyler Tettleton doesn't often hurt his team. He completed 62.0 % of his passes for better than 2,500 yards. He also had an impressive 16/3 TD/INT ratio.

Tettleton noted: "We're eager and hungry to get back out there."

The Bobcats have "bowl experience" on their side, as this is their fourth straight. They won by one (24-23 vs. Utah State) last year.

Speaking of close games, the Bobcats played six games which were decided by 10 or fewer points this season, five of them decided by a TD or less and three decided by a field goal.

Likewise, the Warhawks have seen five games decided by six or fewer points.

The Warhawks are 4-7 ATS their last 11 off a win vs a conference rival, 3-10 ATS the last 13 times that they played with two or more week's or rest and 5-15 ATS the last 20 times that they were off a win of six or less. Meanwhile, the Bobcats check in at 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range and 3-1 ATS off two or more consecutive losses. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all those generous points. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on DUKE. I believe that this will be a case of the Blue Devils being happier to be here.

After a nearly 2-decade hiatus from the bowls, Duke is back.

True, the Blue Devils did stumble down the stretch. However, this is an entirely new season - we've already seen teams like SMU and Central Florida, who weren't as "hot" as their opponent, win in blowout fashion.

Keep in mind that the Blue Devils faced some tough and/or unique opponents down the stretch - their last four games came against the likes of Florida State, Clemson, G-Tech and Miami.

Thrilled to be here, the Blue Devils will have the advantage of playing close to home, as this game is played at Charlotte.

Duke senior Conner Vernon noted: "It's kind of just one of those things to leave our legacy at Duke football. Not only the first senior class to go to a bowl game since '94 but the first senior class to win a bowl game since a long time. That's definitely the mindset we're going to have going into it."

While the Bearcats have the better record, they really didn't play a very difficult schedule. They did knock off V-Tech (an ACC team that beat Duke) but the rest of their non-conf. schedule was very soft.
Plus, the Big East was quite weak this season.

This is still a team which won only four of its final seven with losses coming against Toledo, Louisville and Rutgers. The wins came against UConn, USF, Temple and Syracuse. Those four teams went a combined 19-31 this season. Other victories came against the likes of Fordam, Delaware State and Miami Ohio. (The Bearcats were laying more than 100 combined points in those games.)

While the Blue Devils have stability at the head coach position, the Bearcats are having to deal with yet another coaching change. Butch Jones has bolted for the greener pastures of Tennessee. Remember, the team has also lost coaches Brian Kelly and Mark D'antonio in recent years, both of whom also used the Cincy job as a springboard for bigger and better things. Defensive coordinator Steve Stripling will coach this game, with Tommy Tuberville taking over next season.

We just saw a team in a similar situation (Western Kentucky was also being coached by its defensive coordinator) get upset last night. Don't be surprised if we seen another upset here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. The MAC Conference hasn't fared too well in the bowls thus far. Both Ball State and Toledo were blown out. Meanwhile, LA-Lafayette beat East Carolina, leaving the Sun Belt at 1-0. Those results are among the reasons that many are likely going to favor Western Kentucky in this matchup. I believe that the Hilltoppers, who also lost against LA-Lafayette, are a bit of a fraud though and feel that the value lies squarely with the underdog.

The Hilltoppers made some noise early in the season, as they covered six straight games out of the gate. However, that was in large part due to the fact that they were under-valued by the betting public.

As bettors clued in to the fact that the Hilltoppers were raking in the profits, the line value on them began to disappear. The team would finish the season on a 2-4 ATS streak.

A closer look at the Western Kentucky schedule reveals that the Hilltoppers actually only won three games by more than eight points all season and those were all back in September, one of them coming against Austin Peay. Their final four games were ALL decided by five or less and three of them resulted in losses.

Not surprisingly, the Hilltoppers fared very well as underdogs but stumbled when laying points. They're 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored.

Not only do the Hilltoppers have trouble winning by a large margin, they're also dealing with a shake up in their coaching ranks. The man who got them here - Willie Taggart - is gone. Bobby Petrino will coach next season. That can certainly be a distraction and is less than ideal.

Neither Petrino nor Taggart will coach here though. Instead, it will be defensive coordinator Lance Guidry calling the plays. To his credit, Guidry did win in a similar situation when with Miami Ohio a couple of years ago. Still, as noted, I believe that this is "less than ideal."

Of course, it should also be noted that Guidry will be without his best defensive player and arguably their best player overall, Quanterus Smith. If you watched the Hawaii Bowl, you saw what a huge impact a single dominant defensive lineman can be. Smith, a defensive end, was that type of player for Western Kentucky. Not only was he the defensive player on the year in the Sun Belt, he also led the entire country with 1.25 sacks per game, finishing with 12.5 in 10 games.

While the Hilltoppers stumbled down the stretch and are dealing with a coaching shake up, the Chippewas closed the season by playing their best football. They were 3-0 SU/ATS their final three games. They also scored at least 30 points in each of their final six games. Additionally, they've got a coach in his third year and are very excited to be here.

Athletic director Dave Heeke noted: "We are thrilled to be back in Detroit for a bowl game."

Of course, Mount Pleasant (Michigan) is only about 150 miles to Detroit while Western Kentucky has to travel about three times as far.

I won't be at all surprised when Central Michigan wins this game and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

I'm playing on SMU. The Bulldogs have certainly had an impressive season under first year coach Tim DeRuyter. After going 4-9 under Pat Hill in the WA455616AC last season, the Bulldogs replaced Hill, jumped over to the Mountain West and promptly proceeded to go 9-3, including a 7-1 mark in conference play. While the Bulldogs would surely love to cap things off with a bowl win, its already been a very successful season.

The Mustangs should be very happy to be here, as they began the season with a 2-4 record and didn't become bowl eligible until their final game, a 35-27 victory over C-USA champion Tulsa.

Coincidentally, the Bulldogs also faced Tulsa, losing 27-26 back in September.

Fresno State did blow out a lot of teams. However, their only victories against decent teams came against San Diego State, Nevada and Air Force.

While the Bulldogs are fairly tough against the pass, they were only 75th in the country against the run, which plays into the strength of the Mustangs.

Senior tailback Zach Line ran for more than 1200 yards this year, becoming the fourth player in C-USA history to record three straight seasons with more than 1000 rushing yards. Meanwhile, QB Gilbert ran for 111 yards in the regular season finale and has seven rushing scores on the season.

Of course, SMU coach June Jones has a personal connection to Hawaii, having coached here for nine years. He was quoted as saying this of the Hawaii Bowl: "Having been affiliated with this bowl since its inception, I know that it is one of the best bowl experiences in college football. I'm very excited for our players, staff and fans. This is a special experience."

You may recall that Jones' Mustangs beat Nevada by a score of 45-10 here in the 2009 Hawaii Bowl, a game they were listed as double-digit underdogs for. Don't be surprised if they step up and score another upset. *10

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I really like how this one sets up for the home team.

Obviously, the Eagles have had a very disappointing season. Nobody is certain what next season will bring but change is inevitable.

Playing their home finale, this game offers one last chance for this current group of players and coaches to earn the home fans a victory. Reid, who has been through an awful lot this season, has taken this team to the playoffs nine times since becoming coach in 1999. I expect his players to fight their hardest for him.

All the talk will be out Robert Griffin III, who is expected to return. He may not be quite 100% though. Either way, I don't expect him to find the going easy here. (Same goes for Cousins, should he happen to play.)

The Eagles are playing with revenge from an earlier blowout loss at Washington. They've been playing better since that time with two covers in their last three games. Prior to the loss at Washington, they'd beaten the Skins three straight times.

The Redskins did win big at Cleveland last week, even without Griffin. And, as noted, they did beat up on the Eagles last month. However, prior to last week's win, their previous three victories had come by just 11 combined points, none by greater than a touchdown.

The Eagles are playing with some extra preparation time, as their last game came on a Thursday. They're 55-33-3 ATS the last 91 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to step up and close out the current era (at Philadelphia) with at least a cover. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. This is a huge game for both teams. While they've struggled lately and are off a heart-breaking loss, the Steelers are still a team that knows how to win and which has been involved in many of these must win games in the past. They've also dominated the Bengals for years and that should give them confidence here. I feel that the current line is providing excellent value.

Yes, the Bengals have played well of late. Yes, they desperately want to win this game. At the end of the day, the Steelers are still 18-6 here the past few seasons, including a 35-7 blowout of these same Bengals the last meeting here.

The Bengals are 4-10-2 ATS their last 16 in the division going an awful 56-86-3 ATS their last 145. The Steelers are 10-6-1 ATS their last 17 division games and 82-62-6 their last 150.

I respect Dalton, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. However, I still respect Rothlisberger, Tomlin and the Steelers more. Until proven otherwise on the field, the Steelers still own this team. The only other time that the Steelers had lost two straight this season, they stepped up and won outright at Baltimore. With everything on the line, I expect them to step up and get it done again. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on DETROIT. Most people will assume that Atlanta has more to play for here and therefore they'll assume that the Falcons will also be the more motivated team.

True, the Falcons are trying to wrap up home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs while also building momentum for more important games. True, the Lions are playing out the string.

That doesn't tell the entire story though.

The Falcons will still control their own destiny, in terms of home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, even if they lose there.

Meanwhile, Detroit has another chance to show the national audience than its better than indicated by its record.

I believe that the Lions are indeed better than their record indicates. I also believe that they'll be highly motivated by the chance to beat this year's best NFC team, particularly after getting embarrassed last week.

QB Stafford noted: "People are competitive, people have pride. People have confidence in themselves. I think that's what helps people bounce back from stuff like this.''

The Falcons showed that they can dominate when fully focused last week. However, keep in mind that they were dominated by Carolina the previous week. Off the big "revenge" win vs. the defending SB champions and with their regular season home finale on deck - and against a division rival - I could easily see the Falcons experiencing a bit of a letdown here.

The Lions are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a cover on Saturday. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I successfully played against the Broncos in their last game. The won but failed to cover vs. Nevada. I expect them to have an even tougher time this afternoon.

I successfully played against the Huskies in their regular season finale. Laying double-digits, they lost outright vs. rival Washington State in the Apple Cup.

That doesn't mean that I don't respect the Huskies, nor does it mean that they haven't had an excellent season. I do believe that it should provide them with some added motivation here though. A win here and that loss can be swept under the rug. However, a loss here and everyone will remember the Huskies team that lost the Apple Cup and then couldn't get it done in a bowl.

The Broncos are always well-coached. However, it still may be hard for them to get up for a lesser bowl game, as this program has become accustomed to striving for bigger games and this will now be their third straight season in the Las Vegas Bowl.

The Huskies played the much tougher schedule and have wins over the likes of San Diego State, Stanford, Oregon State and Cal.

This isn't the same dominant Boise team of years gone by. They lost vs. San Diego State and lost at Michigan State. They beat BYU by a single point and New Mexico by only three. Victories over Fresno State and Nevada were by 10 and six points. Those were arguably their tow most impressive victories, too.

The Huskies have played very well when given some extra rest in between games. They're 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as underdogs, winning all three outright. I look for them to step up and earn AT LEAST another cover here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. One of my first wins this college season was with BYU, as I backed the Cougars in their 30-6 win over Washington State way back in August. I also won with the Cougars in their 47-0 blowout of Hawaii. However, I also played against the Cougars when they lost against Utah while successfully playing on their game against Boise (7-6 final) to finish below the total. I feel that the Couars are going to be in tough here.

The Cougars really didn't beat many good teams. Their victory at Georgia Tech was arguably their most impressive accomplishment.

The Aztecs, who are playing in their home stadium. won at Boise and at Nevada. In fact, they've won seven straight overall, covering six of those.

Neither team likes each other - but the "hate" on the Aztecs side of the ball is arguably even greater.

You may recall that BYU bolted the Mountain West in 2010. Some of you may also remember that in the teams' final conference game at BYU in 2010, a botched replay review in BYU's favor helped the Cougars win 24-21. Later, it was revealed that the replay official was actually a BYU employee. Needless to say, the Aztecs would love to get some payback against a team that dominated them over the years.

I won with the Aztecs here two years ago (35-14 over Navy) and think the advantage of playing at home will prove to be significant once again.

Coach Rocky Long said. "When we got to the point that we were bowl eligible, we were hoping we were going to get to stay here at home for a lot of reasons. We wanted to stay home and play in front of and give our fans a chance to see us in a bowl game."

While the Cougars are 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were laying points, the Aztecs are 8-4 ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as underdogs, four of those resulting in outright wins.

Out of respect for BYU's defense and the possibility of a game that comes down to the wire, I'll grab the points. However, I'm expecting another outright win for what I feel will be a highly motivated Aztec squad. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I lost playing against the Patriots last week. While they admittedly looked very good, while also making me look pretty bad, I'm still willing to go against them here.

After last week's blowout victory over Houston, the line is higher than it otherwise would have been. I feel that's providing us with excellent value.

Brady seems to be able to throw to just about anyone. However, injuries to targets Gronkowski, Edelman and Stallworth figure to catch up with the Pats against this defense.

While the Texans defense was exposed by the Pats' high-powered offense, this SF defense allows the fewest points in the entire league, at just 14.2 per game.

Kaepernick is obviously not in Brady's class yet (and may never be) as Brady has been getting it done for a decade while Kaepernick has only made four starts. Still, the fact that Kaepernick has completed better than 67% of his passes can't be ignored. He's gaining more than eight yards per attempt, too. Nor can his ability to beat teams with his feet.



Despite the limited number of games, he's already third among NFL quarterbacks with 351 rushing yards. He's averaging a whopping 7.6 per carry and already has five rushing touchdowns.



While the Pats are 5-6-1 ATS their last 12 non-conference games, the 49'ers are 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against AFC teams.



The 49'ers are also 7-4-1 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, including a perfect 3-0 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I believe that their physical rushing attack and powerful defense matches up well against the Pats and I won't be surprised to see them score the outright win. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on BUFFALO. The Seahawks figure to be a popular pick here. After all, they're off a 58-0 victory last week. Plus, they're battling for the playoffs while the Bills are most likely "playing out the string."

I don't expect the Bills to just roll over though. In fact, while the playoffs aren't really going to happen, this team is still mathematically alive and I believe that they're offering plenty of value.

Its true that the Bills would have preferred to play this game at Buffalo, instead of Toronto. However, I still feel the venue will provide them with an advantage.

Keep in mind that the Seahawks are thousands of miles away from home. Playing away from home doesn't bother some teams. However, its something that the Seahawks haven't really figured out yet. They've won only two of seven games away from Seattle. Note that both of those victories came by less than a touchdown, too.

The Seahawks, who are dealing with several banged-up players, are an awful 21-42 the last 63 times that they were off a divisional victory, going 3-4 ATS (2-5 SU) their last seven in that situation.

Perhaps worse than the potential letdown from the Arizona win is the potential for a "look-ahead" to next week's critical home game vs. San Francisco.

While they're only 3-5 their last eight games, four of the Bills' last five losses have come by less than a touchdown. I look for them to step up and earn at least a cover. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Don't tell these teams that they've got nothing to play for. Both the Vikings and Rams kept their hopes alive by winning last week. Both are still on the outside looking in. Both need another win. With the game being played at St. Louis, I feel that the Rams will have the advantage.

The Vikings are 6-1 at home but only 1-5 (SU and ATS) on the road. They've won just five of 22 road games the past few seasons. The Rams are 2-3-1 on the road, 2-4-1 if you count the game at London. They're 4-2 in games here at St. Louis though.

With a healthy Adrian Peterson in the backfield, the Vikings are obviously a very good running team. However, the Rams have been extremely stout against the run of late.

Last week, they limited Buffalo's C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to a combined 51 yards on 16 carries. The Bills were fourth in the league in rushing coming into that game.

The previous week, the Rams limited Frank Gore to only 58 yards. A closer look reveals that Gore had 23 yards on one play and only 35 yards on his other 22 carries combined.

Jeff Fisher said this of his team's run defense: "Everybody's been contributing from the back end to defensive tackle Michael Brockers is improving, Kendall's Langford playing good, the ends are playing solid, the linebackers are flowing."

Fisher went on to say that he's not talking to his team about the playoffs: "We have the Vikings coming into this week. That's our focus ... Right now, none of that matters unless we win this game. We have to find a way ..."

The Rams are 7-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 42 range, going 15-9 ATS their last 24 in that situation. On the other hand, during that time, the Vikings were just 2-10 ATS when playing a game where the line ranged from 35.5 to 42.

The Rams are also 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. I look for Fisher's team to "find a way," covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ATLANTA. For a team with an 11-2 overall record, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home, the Falcons sure aren't getting much respect here. I feel that lack of respect is providing us with excellent value.



One could easily make a case for the Giants needing this game more. From a playoff perspective, I'll admit that is in fact true. The Falcons, already division champs, have the best record in the entire NFC and that will remain the case, even if they lose this game. Meanwhile, the Giants have both the Cowboys and Redskins breathing down their necks in the race for the NFC East title.



That said, I expect the Falcons to be every bit as motivated as the defending champions. Indeed, this is a game that Atlanta has had circled since the schedule came out. You may recall that the Giants beat up on the Falcons (24-2) in last year's playoffs, en route to winning the Super Bowl.



I believe that this is a much improved Atlanta team from the one which the Giants defeated last season. I'm not sure that the same can be said of New York though.



While they do have a promising rookie in David Wilson, who is coming off a big game, its still worth noting that the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw, their leading rusher and also his backup, (Andre Brown ) who is out for the season.



Tom Coughlin noted this about the Falcons being a different team from last season: "They have two new coordinators in defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. They do bring their own personality and style to the way that they're playing, so there is a difference."



As if last year's playoff loss wasn't motivation enough, the Falcons were embarrassed by Carolina last week and have had to listen to all the talk about them being a fraud all week.



Note that Falcons, who are 19-4 SU their last 23 at home, are a perfect 5-0 SU the last five times that they were off a loss vs. a divisional opponent. I expect the revenge-minded Falcons to step up and improve on those stats, making a statement and covering the very small number along the way. *10 "Revenge" GOW

I'm playing on NEVADA. These two teams have some similarities. Both can score plenty of points and both also have a tendency to give up quite a few. Not surprisingly, we're seeing an O/U line in the mid-high 70s. I feel that the value lies with the underdog though, not the total.
The Wolfpack are 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as underdogs, including a 1-0 ATS mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, have long been terrible when laying points. They're 41-71 ATS the last 100+ times that they were favored, including an awful 14-30 ATS mark when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. that included a 3-6-1 ATS mark their last 10 in that role. Overall, the Cats were only 2-4 ATS as favorites this season.
While the Wolfpack do give up a high 32.5 points per game, the Wildcats give up 34.3. That number climbs all the way to 48.2 (and 543 ypg!) when the Cats play on the road. On the other hand, Nevada allowed fewer points (29.7 and 395.7 ypg) when playing away from Reno.
In fact, the Wolfpack were on the best on the road, winning five of six, the lone loss coming when they were playing on a short week, at Air Force.
While I won with the Wolfpack in last year's bowl, I like that this game comes earlier and feel that gives Nevada and its unique offense an edge.
If this bowl came in another week or two, Arizona would have had more chance to prepare for the Wolfpack's pistol offense. However, with this being the very first bowl game, that amount of preparation time is lessened.
As Nevada offensive tackle Jeff Nady noted: "The Pistol offense is a unique offense and the less time a team has to prepare for us, I think it gives us a slight edge. I do think this gives us a slight advantage based on the way our offense works."
Of course, motivation is always important to assess in these early bowl games. In this case, I expect the Wolfpack to be very hungry. This team has a strong senior class and they weren't happy with the way they closed out the regular season. They also aren't happy with their recent bowl record and this provides an excellent opportunity to improve in that area.
While I do believe the Wildcats will also want to win this game, I feel that there may be a little more disappointment with being here. Had they taken care of business against ASU in their regular season finale, they may been playing in the Sun Bowl instead. While it won't effect the players, its interesting to note that even some of the Arizona faithful may not be 100% focused on the game - as the Wildcats basketball team happens to host Florida later on Saturday, their biggest non-conf game.
Including their cover in the Hawaii Bowl last season, a game I attended, the Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS their last four games played in the month of December. I expect at least another cover on Saturday. *9

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I knew I liked the Eagles in this spot. However, I also expected the line to climb above its opening number of three and therefore waited a bit before releasing it. It has now done so. As far as I'm concerned, given the situation, anything better than a field goal is very generous.

I respect the Bengals and I won with them when they beat the Giants. However, I don't feel that they are a team which should be laying more than a field goal on the road here. Not when they're off a heart-breaker and playing a road game, on a short week. Not when they're facing a Philadelphia team which finally enters a game with some much-needed momentum.
After covering the previous week, the Eagles got the monkey off their back with an outright win last week. That was on the road against a Tampa team that was fighting for the playoffs. That victory should appease the home faithful a little while also giving them some much needed confidence.
Now, the Eagles get a chance to do some more "spoiling" while getting to show the nationally televised audience that they aren't a bad as the recent skid made them seem. I expect a highly motivated effort.
Nick Foles, who threw for nearly 400 yards in leading the Eagles to last week's win noted: "It's a great feeling for the team. I think the big thing is, it's a great thing for the team sticking together. We can build off of this.''
As for the Bengals, let's keep in mind, that besides that win over the Giants that they've mostly struggled against top tier competition. They beat Washington. That was early in the season before the Skins had really started to come into their own though. Their other victories came against Cleveland, a team which also defeated them in the rematch, Jacksonville, Miami, KC, Oakland and San Diego. None of those are playoff teams. In fact, those five teams are a combined 15-48.

Obviously, the Eagles haven't been a top tier team this season. However, my point is that the Bengals, 0-6 the last six times that they played a road game when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45, aren't exactly an "elite" team themselves.

Already 2-0 ATS this month, the Eagles are now 14-6 ATS (16-4 SU) their last 20 games played in the month of December, 7-3 SU/ATS the past few seasons.

While this month's ATS victories have come on the road, the Eagles have also won seven of their last eight December home games. I expect them to give their guests all they can handle with an excellent shot at another outright win. *10 Roast




Bonus First Half Play: Eagles.


Keep in mind that this line opened with the Bengals laying a field goal for the entire game. Now, we're able to get that many (or more) points for the first half. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. Note that the Bengals were up by three at halftime last week, after being down by three at the break the previous week.

The Eagles were winning 10-0 at halftime last week and they were up 17-10 the previous week. The week before that, they were winning 15-14 at half. Grab the points. *10

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Obviously these are both very good teams, each of them very capable of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. With all due respect to Belichick and Brady, I feel that the Texans are the more complete team.

Both teams can score but the Pats enter with a statistical edge on that side of the ball. They're averaging 35.8 points per game, 34.8 at home. The Texans are averaging 29.2 overall, 25.3 on the road. Still very respectable numbers.

The Texans make up for it on the other side of the ball. They're allowing 16 points per game on the road while the Pats are allowing 24.4 at home.

I won with the Pats when they beat the Broncos back on 10/7. I also won with them when they hammered the Colts on 11/18. So, I'm not opposed to backing them against "good" teams.

I feel that the Texans are stronger than either the Colts or the Broncos though. Certainly, I feel that they're stronger than Indianapolis. Also, a closer look shows that the Pats have stumbled when up against other quality non-divisional opponents.

Sure, they've beaten up on their own division. However, they know those teams and have their number - plus, the Bills, Jets and Dolphins are all sub-500 teams. Entering Sunday's action, they're each 5-7. That's a far cry from Houston's 11-1 record.

The Pats' other non-divisional wins came against Tennessee and St. Louis, teams which are a combined 9-14-1 entering Sunday.

Losses against Arizona, Baltimore and Seattle were some time ago now but shouldn't be entirely forgotten.

I did successfully play against the Texans in their only loss this season, a 42-24 pasting at the hands of the Packers. However, that's the only time that the Texans have lost all season.

They've beaten quality and/or talented teams like the Broncos (they beat them at Denver too, while the Pats beat them at Foxboro) Bears and Lions.

When matched up against the Ravens, a team which defeated New England, the Texans won by a score of 43-13.

When matched up against other AFC East teams, the Texans have gone 3-0. They won those games by scores of 30-10, 23-17 and 21-9. So, they too can dominate the the AFC East teams.

Note that the Texans are 6-0 (4-1-1 ATS) on the road and that they're also 11-5 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record.

Back to the Packers game for a minute; I feel that's worked in our favor. That game offered the Texans a rare chance in front of the nationally televised (Sunday night) audience and they got embarrassed. While they did manage a win against the Bears on Monday night, they didn't cover - and that game had an asterisk beside it, due to Cutler not playing. Even the win at Detroit on Thanksgiving was a little "questionable."

Those two primetime games have remained fresh in the memories of bettors as many lost with Houston in one or even both of those games. They're going to be a little hesitant to back the Texans here. That sentiment has worked in four favor, one of the factors keeping the line above a field goal.

I believe the Texans are a team seeking respect, something the Pats already have. I feel that the Texans will view this as a "statement" game and look for them to be at their very best. *10

I'm playing on DETROT. The Lions have certainly found ways to lose - and they cost me last week. However, the fact is that they almost never get blown out. Their last three losses have all come by four points or less, starting with a 24-20 loss vs. these same Packers. Once again, I expect them to be in this one the entire way.

From a playoff perspective, its true that the Packers need this game more. The Lions have no hope. The Packers need every win that they can get. I don't expect the Lions to go through the motions though. This is a hated divisional rival, one which broke their hearts earlier. Also, this is a nationally televised game, an opportunity to show the nation that they're better than their record suggests. Of course, snapping a 20-game skid at Lambeau would be nice too ...

The Packers aren't that far removed from winning a Super Bowl and are certainly worthy of respect. They're missing several key components at the moment though and I don't feel that the current lineup should be laying this many points against what I still believe is a talented Lions team. The Packers did eke out a 9-point vs. Minnesota last week - but that was far from easy. The previous week, they were exposed by the Giants, a 38-10 destruction.

Note that the Packers are 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when off a divisional victory. After beating Chicago, they lost at Seattle. The blowout loss against the Giants came after GB beat the Lions in the earlier meeting.

Given their tendency to avoid being blown out, its not surprising that the Lions are a profitable 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range, including a 5-2 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday night. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on the JETS. Its surely now or never for Sanchez. Rex Ryan has given him the nod once again, after he got benched in last week's game. I may be in the minority but I like that decision. I agree that Sanchez gives the Jets the best chance to win. I feel that playing on the road will help ease the pressure, at least a little, and I expect Sanchez to rise to the occasion and remind everyone that he can actually still play.

Jacksonville figures to be an ideal opponent. Not only are the Jags terrible this season, they're banged-up at the QB and running back positions. Perhaps most importantly, the Jets hammered the Jags by a score of 32-3 last season. Sanchez was 17 of 24 with two TDs in that game. So, he should help in the confidence department.

Of course, Sanchez's job would be much easier if his team has the advantage on the ground. I expect that to be the case.

The Jags give up 144 rushing yards per game, 31st in the league. Meanwhile, the Jags run the ball for only 78.8 yards per game, worst in the league. The Jets check in off a game in which they gained 177 yards on the ground.

The Jets are 3-1-1 ATS (4-1 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. They're also 12-7-2 ATS (13-8 SU) the last 21 times that they played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3.

The Jets are also 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS their last 16 against teams with a losing record. With the Titans, Chargers and Bills on deck, all beatable teams, the Jets aren't completely out of this thing yet. I say they step up and get it done. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Colts have sure had a great year. However, that doesn't mean that they're be ready to be laying this many points.

A look at the Colts' schedule shows that they've only won one game all season by more than a touchdown. Five victories have come by a field goal or less.

While the Titans were beaten by 14 by a strong Houston team last week, that was just the second time in seven games that they've lost by more than six points.

The Titans have been at their best off back to back losses, going 3-0 ATS. Looking to avenge the earlier loss and potentially catching the Colts looking ahead, if only slightly, to Houston, I expect the Titans to take this one down to the wire with an excellent shot at an outright win. *10 AFC South GOY

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Cowboys may not have blown out the Eagles. However, they did enough to win. I expect them to build some momentum from that comeback victory and feel that this is an excellent spot for them.
Romo, who broke Aikman's record for TDs in that game, noted: ''It's about winning games. We desperately had to have this win tonight, and our team fought like heck to get a win.''
With that win and their hopes rekindled - but knowing they still absolutely need another one - I expect the Cowboys to again "fight like heck."
The Bengals may have home field advantage. However, they're also off a hard fought game on the West Coast, so there was some traveling across time zones involved.
Speaking of home field "advantage," the Bengals are only 2-3-1 ATS (3-3 SU) here this season while the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) on the road.
While the Cowboys may have only won four of their last eight games, all four losses came by a TD or less. I'm grabbing the points. *10 Non-Conf. BEST BET

I'm playing on ARMY. I won with Army in last year's game. While they couldn't break through with an outright win, the Knights fought hard the entire way and earned the cover, losing by six.
Last year's 26-20 setback was the Knights' 10th straight loss in the series. Needless to say, they'd dearly love to snap that skid. I believe that the talent gap has really lessened and that this indeed could be the year that Army breaks through.
With both teams having beaten Air Force, the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy is in play, making the prospect of a victory even sweeter.
At 7-4, Navy checks in with the significantly better record. However, this year's team hasn't been dominated. They've outscored teams by a very narrow 25.5 to 23.5 margin.
All four Navy losses came by double-digits. However, three victories came by seven points or less. This season's Midshipmen are only 1-4 ATS as favorites.
Air Force was arguably the best team that Navy beat all season and the Midshipmen needed OT to win that one. Army, on the hand, hammered the Falcons by 20 points.
Like I said, I feel this could be the year. Wearing black WWII inspired uniforms, I expect the Knights to step up and earn AT LEAST another cover. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. While I won with the Broncos last week, I feel that they're laying too many points here. While the Broncos have many bigger games left in their future, this arguably qualifies as the the Raiders biggest remaining game.
After all, its a nationally televised home game against a divisional opponent, one which crushed them in this season's previous meeting. With no playoffs to look forward to and only one other games coming against "playoff teams," this is about as good as it gets. The Raiders do have one more home game remaining, next week vs. KC. However, while that's perhaps a more "winnable" game, Oakland already defeated the Chiefs once this season. Beating the Broncos would be that much sweeter for them, a chance to show that they can still compete with the best in the division.
In other words, I expect the Raiders to be extremely motivated.
On the other hand, as noted, Denver has many bigger games on deck. Also, having just officially clinched the division, a bit of a letdown may be in order - even though they still want the best record possible and even though clinching the division was already a foregone conclusion.
While the Broncos did manage to hang on for the cover last week, they still only ended up winning by eight points. That's three straight games that they've played which have been decided by eight or less.
The Raiders fought hard right until the end last week, losing by three. I expect them to again take this game right down to the closing seconds, elevating their game and earning AT LEAST the cover. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Admittedly, the Browns have been more competitive than the Raiders in recent weeks. I like how this one sets up for the home team though.

The Browns were able to play their hearts out against a banged-up divisional rival last week, knocking off the Steelers. However, off that win and now playing thousands of miles away for a meaningless game against a non-divsional team, I feel they may have some trouble "getting up" for this one. Divisional wins don't come around often for this team. Note that they're 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they were coming off a divisional win.

On the other hand, I expect the Raiders to be extremely motivated. They've been embarrassed the last few weeks and know that this game is one of their best remaining chances at a victory. Keep in mind that the Browns haven't won a game on the road all season long.

From a line value perspective, note that the Browns haven't been favored for a game all season. (They were 2-6-1 ATS as favorites the previous two seasons.) Also, consider that the Raiders were laying 6.5 points when they hosted the Browns last season. Oakland won by seven, 24-17, dominating the Browns by a 151 to 65 margin on the ground.

Speaking of the Oakland ground game, note that the Raiders should have McFadden and Goodson back to bolster the ground game.

Carson Palmer noted: "...good to see them in the huddle and see them get reps and see Darren smiling and hitting the hole hard, and same thing with Goody. Good for the team but also good for the offense to have those guys back.''

The Raiders are 3-2 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs of three or fewer points. I expect them to step up and improve on those stats here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on DENVER. I successfully played against the Broncos each of the past two weeks, including last week at Kansas City. In each case, I felt that the Broncos were laying too many points and had reason to believe that they'd be in for a dogfight. This week, however, the line is a little more reasonable and I like how the game sets up for them.

Give the Bucs credit. They've played well this season and have been very profitable to their backers. However, I feel that they're in a very difficult spot here. Last week's 1-point loss vs. Atlanta was extremely hard fought and coming up just short like that figures to have an effect here.

Peyton Manning is a master of taking what the defense gives him and exploiting weaknesses. In this case, he knows that the Bucs are tough against the run but also that they're the worst in the entire NFL against the pass - they're giving up a whopping 315.5 passing yards per game. I expect him to have a big day.

The Broncos have been very tough at home this season, outscoring opposing teams by an average of 31.4 to 18.6. They've outgained them in those games by an average of 425.6 to 297.2. On the other hand, the Bucs are being outgained by a 405 to a 361.4 margin away from Tampa.

While its only a formality at this point, the Broncos can wrap up the AFC West title with a win here. I expect them to do so in convincing fashion. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on DETROIT. Andrew Luck and the Colts deserve credit for already exceeding this season's expectations. I feel that they're in tough here though.



The Lions have been the opposite of the Colts in that they've under-achieved. They're still a talented team though and I feel that they'll have the advantage here.



While they've had success at home, the Colts are only 2-3 SU/ATS on the road. Giving up 31.6 points per road game hasn't helped. The two wins came at Tennessee and Jacksonville. (Those two teams enter Week 13 with a combined 6-16 record, 3-8 at their own venues.)



You probably saw that the Lions are coming off a tough loss on Thanksgiving Day. That was against a very good Houston team though, one which is better than the opponent which they'll face here. Note that the Texans were the first non-divisional opponent which has beaten the Lions here. Also, note that the Lions have had an extra couple of days to prepare and heal, due to the Houston game occurring on a Thursday.



Counting the game vs. Houston as a push, the Lions have now gone 6-3-2 ATS against AFC teams the past few seasons, going 12-8-1 ATS at home. They've won six of eight December games, going 5-3 ATS.



While the Colts have more to play for, I expect the Lions to rise up and show some pride here, taking pleasure in doing damage to the Colts' playoff chances. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. I was going to play the Chiefs before the recent tragedy. While some may feel that awful event will cause them to struggle, I still like them in this spot.



The Panthers are playing on a short week, while also playing their second straight on the road. They may have defeated the Eagles, a team which is in free-fall. However, they're still 3-8 on the season and I don't believe that they have any business laying more than a field goal here. Keep in mind that this team is 5-16 SU its last 21 on the road.



The Chiefs haven't won a home game all season but they've kept fighting. With only one remaining home game on deck (Colts) and that not coming until Dec. 23rd, this represents their best shot at getting the home fans that elusive victory. Note that they covered against the Broncos last season, playing Denver tough the whole way.



Also, the last time that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to 7 range, they covered vs. Baltimore, improving to 2-0 ATS the last couple of seasons, when in that role.



The Chiefs have quietly gone 8-3 ATS in games against the NFC the past few seasons. In what could well be a close game, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the recent tragedy to help bring the Chiefs together, if only for a day, as they step up and score the upset. *9

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. I've been very successful in picking my spots to go and against the Rams this season. Getting more than a touchdown, I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here.

The Rams have already played the 49'ers very tough at San Francisco. You may recall that the teams played to a 24-24 ties there a few weeks ago. Now, they get to face them at St. Louis, where they've played well all season. I expect them to again give the division leaders all that they can handle.

Note that the early starting time may favor the Rams, over their West Coast based guests. In addition to playing an early game in the Eastern time zone, the 49'ers are playing their second straight road game, coming off a playoff rematch with the Saints.

Yes, Kaepernick has been impressive. However, he's still only made a couple of starts and at some point he's likely to experience at least some minor growing pains. Given the fact that Jeff Fisher and the Rams have seen him first-hand, unlike San Francisco's previous two opponents, I won't be surprised if Kaepernick comes back to earth a little here. (Kaepernick played in relief in the earlier game against the Rams, at SF.)

I believe that the Rams, who are 7-3 ATS as underdogs, will really want this one. Fisher had this to say: "This game is really going to tell us who we are as a team. They're the team to beat in our division. We got close but didn't get it done the first time ... "

While I respect the 49'ers, I'm grabbing the generous points. *9

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. I successfully played against the Huskers just eight days ago. However, that was in large part because I felt that they'd be looking ahead to this much bigger game (even though they did need to beat Iowa) and also because they were playing on a short week and in what I felt was going to be a difficult environment. Here's an excerpt from that writeup:

"...Most are probably expecting a blowout here. The Huskers still need a win here to get to its first Big Ten Championship game while Iowa has lost five in a row. That sentiment has led to a very high line with the home underdog Hawkeyes getting more than two touchdowns. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. I still believe this Iowa team, which hasn't lost six in a row for more than a decade, has some pride. This is their final game and I expect them to treat it like their bowl game, rising to the occasion with their best effort. While even their best effort may not be enough for a win, it should allow them to remain competitive. With this being an early Friday game, after Thanksgiving, Bo Pelini knows its potentially going to be a difficult spot. He noted: "The challenge is going to be to come back in a short week and be ready to go on the road ... " Pelini went on to say this of the Hawkeyes: "We have a lot of respect for their program ... they're gonna play hard, there's a tremendous amount of pride and tradition in that program. It's their Senior Day, there's a lot of things that are going into it for them ... " Iowa is still only giving up 23.8 points per game, just 22.5 at home. On the other hand, Nebraska has allowed an average of 37.7 (453 ypg) on the road. The Hawkeyes have only been home underdogs in the +14.5 to +17 range twice in more than a decade. They covered each of those games and I look for them to do it again here ..."

Things are different here though. Instead of playing on a short week, the Huskers are now well-rested. They also should be 100% focused on the task at hand.

Also, while they failed to cover, the Huskers did still win by six at Iowa. That'd be more than enough here. They've won six straight overall, the last five all wins all coming by more than a field goal. Meanwhile, the Badgers have lost two in a row and three of four. Their lone victory during that stretch came vs. lowly Indiana.

Indeed, many are questioning whether the 7-5 Badgers, who are here only thanks to Penn State and Ohio State being ineligible, even belong in this game.

While the Badgers would like to prove they belong, with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line, I expect the Huskers to prove otherwise. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. Both teams are off a disappointing effort against an instate rival last game. The Yellow Jackets were blown out at Georgia. The Seminoles were upset at Florida. I feel that those results favor the Yellow Jackets in this game.

Florida State Coach Jumbo Fisher acknowledged that the team that wins this game is likely the one that will be able to better recover/regroup from last week's loss. He was quoted saying: "I don't think there's any doubt. They had a great rivalry game and we did too. You've got to be able to put it behind you quickly and go on. I think that is going to be a big factor, I don't think there's any doubt."

Naturally, the Yellow Jackets wanted to knock off the Bulldogs. However, given that they were double-digit underdogs, the loss wasn't completely unexpected. The Yellow Jackets are being told that they "don't belong" here and I expect them to be highly motivated to prove otherwise.

On the other hand, the Seminoles were favored by a touchdown for their game vs. the Gators. They fell behind early, rallied back and then came up short. As if losing to their instate rivals wasn't bad enough, that loss killed the Seminoles' hopes of playing for the national title. I feel that will be a very tough pill to swallow and that the Noles may be a little flat here.

Making matters worse for the Seminoles, senior defensive end Cornellius "Tank" Carradine went down in the loss against the Gators and will be unavailable.



Off the devastating loss and without one of their top defensive players, preparing for G-Tech's unique offense may prove challenging.



Keep in mind that before last week's loss at Georgia, the Yellow Jackets had scored 33, 68 and 42 points in their previous three games.



The Noles are only 4-8 ATS when laying points this season. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. *10 Best Bet